Analysis of SPAR 8 single-axis levitation experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rush, J. E.; Schafer, C. F.; Holland, R. L.

1981-01-01

The melting and resolidification of SPAR 8 payload melting and resolidification of a glass specimen from the in a containerless condition and the retrieval and examination of the specimen from the. The absence of container contact was assured by use of a single-axis acoustic levitation system. However, the sample contacted a wire cage after being held without container contact by the acoustic field for only approximately 87 seconds. At this time, the sample was still molten and, therefore, flowed aroung the wire and continued to adhere to it. An analysis of why the sample did not remain levitated free of container contact is presented. The experiment is described, and experimental observations are discussed and analyzed.

SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

W. J. Galyean; A. M. Whaley; D. L. Kelly

This guide provides step-by-step guidance on the use of the SPAR-H method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This guide is intended to be used with the worksheets provided in: 'The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method,' NUREG/CR-6883, dated August 2005. Each step in the process of producing a Human Error Probability (HEP) is discussed. These steps are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff. The discussions on dependence are extensive and include an appendix that describes insights obtained from themore » psychology literature.« less

ITRB Spar Domestic Source

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-14

Each pair of rollers is designed to capture the shafts mounted to both ends of the tool lid. Additionally, a safety pin can be put in place to...ITRB for the AH-64D. The scope of the program included structural design , materials selection, manufacturing producibility analysis, tooling design ...responsible for tooling design and fabrication, fabrication process development and fabrication of spars and test samples; G3 who designed the RTM

Concept design and coupled dynamic response analysis on 6-MW spar-type floating offshore wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Long; Zhou, Tao; He, Yan-ping; Zhao, Yong-sheng; Liu, Ya-dong

2017-10-01

Tower, Spar platform and mooring system are designed in the project based on a given 6-MW wind turbine. Under wind-induced only, wave-induced only and combined wind and wave induced loads, dynamic response is analyzed for a 6-MW Spar-type floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) under operating conditions and parked conditions respectively. Comparison with a platform-fixed system (land-based system) of a 6-MW wind turbine is carried out as well. Results demonstrate that the maximal out-of-plane deflection of the blade of a Spar-type system is 3.1% larger than that of a land-based system; the maximum response value of the nacelle acceleration is 215% larger for all the designed load cases being considered; the ultimate tower base fore-aft bending moment of the Spar-type system is 92% larger than that of the land-based system in all of the Design Load Cases (DLCs) being considered; the fluctuations of the mooring tension is mainly wave-induced, and the safety factor of the mooring tension is adequate for the 6-MW FOWT. The results can provide relevant modifications to the initial design for the Spar-type system, the detailed design and model basin test of the 6-MW Spar-type system.

Application of shape memory alloy (SMA) spars for aircraft maneuver enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nam, Changho; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Kim, Youdan

2002-07-01

Modern combat aircraft are required to achieve aggressive maneuverability and high agility performance, while maintaining handling qualities over a wide range of flight conditions. Recently, a new adaptive-structural concept called variable stiffness spar is proposed in order to increase the maneuverability of the flexible aircraft. The variable stiffness spar controls wing torsional stiffness to enhance roll performance in the complete flight envelope. However, variable stiffness spar requires the mechanical actuation system in order to rotate the Variable stiffness spar during flight. The mechanical actuation system to rotate variable stiffness spar may cause an additional weight increase. In this paper, we will apply Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) spars for aeroelastic performance enhancement. In order to explore the potential of SMA spar design, roll performance of the composite smart wings will be investigated using ASTROS. Parametric study will be conducted to investigate the SMA spar effects by changing the spar locations and geometry. The results show that with activation of the SMA spar, the roll effectiveness can be increased up to 61% compared with the baseline model.

33 CFR 147.825 - Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone... (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.825 Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone. (a) Description. The Chevron Genesis Spar, Green Canyon 205A (GC205A), is located at position 27°46′46.365″ N, 90...

33 CFR 147.825 - Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone... (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.825 Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone. (a) Description. The Chevron Genesis Spar, Green Canyon 205A (GC205A), is located at position 27°46′46.365″ N, 90...

33 CFR 147.825 - Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone... (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.825 Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone. (a) Description. The Chevron Genesis Spar, Green Canyon 205A (GC205A), is located at position 27°46′46.365″ N, 90...

33 CFR 147.825 - Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone... (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.825 Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone. (a) Description. The Chevron Genesis Spar, Green Canyon 205A (GC205A), is located at position 27°46′46.365″ N, 90...

A dynamic spar numerical model for passive shape change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calogero, J. P.; Frecker, M. I.; Hasnain, Z.; Hubbard, J. E., Jr.

2016-10-01

A three-dimensional constraint-driven dynamic rigid-link numerical model of a flapping wing structure with compliant joints (CJs) called the dynamic spar numerical model is introduced and implemented. CJs are modeled as spherical joints with distributed mass and spring-dampers with coupled nonlinear spring and damping coefficients, which models compliant mechanisms spatially distributed in the structure while greatly reducing computation time compared to a finite element model. The constraints are established, followed by the formulation of a state model used in conjunction with a forward time integrator, an experiment to verify a rigid-link assumption and determine a flapping angle function, and finally several example runs. Modeling the CJs as coupled bi-linear springs shows the wing is able to flex more during upstroke than downstroke. Coupling the spring stiffnesses allows an angular deformation about one axis to induce an angular deformation about another axis, where the magnitude is proportional to the coupling term. Modeling both the leading edge and diagonal spars shows that the diagonal spar changes the kinematics of the leading edge spar verses only considering the leading edge spar, causing much larger axial rotations in the leading edge spar. The kinematics are very sensitive to CJ location, where moving the CJ toward the wing root causes a stronger response, and adding multiple CJs on the leading edge spar with a CJ on the diagonal spar allows the wing to deform with larger magnitude in all directions. This model lays a framework for a tool which can be used to understand flapping wing flight.

SparRec: An effective matrix completion framework of missing data imputation for GWAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Bo; Ma, Shiqian; Causey, Jason; Qiao, Linbo; Hardin, Matthew Price; Bitts, Ian; Johnson, Daniel; Zhang, Shuzhong; Huang, Xiuzhen

2016-10-01

Genome-wide association studies present computational challenges for missing data imputation, while the advances of genotype technologies are generating datasets of large sample sizes with sample sets genotyped on multiple SNP chips. We present a new framework SparRec (Sparse Recovery) for imputation, with the following properties: (1) The optimization models of SparRec, based on low-rank and low number of co-clusters of matrices, are different from current statistics methods. While our low-rank matrix completion (LRMC) model is similar to Mendel-Impute, our matrix co-clustering factorization (MCCF) model is completely new. (2) SparRec, as other matrix completion methods, is flexible to be applied to missing data imputation for large meta-analysis with different cohorts genotyped on different sets of SNPs, even when there is no reference panel. This kind of meta-analysis is very challenging for current statistics based methods. (3) SparRec has consistent performance and achieves high recovery accuracy even when the missing data rate is as high as 90%. Compared with Mendel-Impute, our low-rank based method achieves similar accuracy and efficiency, while the co-clustering based method has advantages in running time. The testing results show that SparRec has significant advantages and competitive performance over other state-of-the-art existing statistics methods including Beagle and fastPhase.

Preform spar cap for a wind turbine rotor blade

DOEpatents

Livingston, Jamie T [Simpsonville, SC; Driver, Howard D [Greer, SC; van Breugel, Sjef [Enschede, NL; Jenkins, Thomas B [Cantonment, FL; Bakhuis, Jan Willem [Nijverdal, NL; Billen, Andrew J [Daarlerveen, NL; Riahi, Amir [Pensacola, FL

2011-07-12

A spar cap for a wind turbine rotor blade. The spar cap may include multiple preform components. The multiple preform components may be planar sheets having a swept shape with a first end and a second end. The multiple preform components may be joined by mating the first end of a first preform component to the second end of a next preform component, forming the spar cap.

Diffusion bonded boron/aluminum spar-shell fan blade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, C. E. K.; Cutler, J. L.; Fisher, W. J.; Memmott, J. V. W.

1980-01-01

Design and process development tasks intended to demonstrate composite blade application in large high by-pass ratio turbofan engines are described. Studies on a 3.0 aspect radio space and shell construction fan blade indicate a potential weight savings for a first stage fan rotor of 39% when a hollow titanium spar is employed. An alternate design which featured substantial blade internal volume filled with titanium honeycomb inserts achieved a 14% potential weight savings over the B/M rotor system. This second configuration requires a smaller development effort and entails less risk to translate a design into a successful product. The feasibility of metal joining large subsonic spar and shell fan blades was demonstrated. Initial aluminum alloy screening indicates a distinct preference for AA6061 aluminum alloy for use as a joint material. The simulated airfoil pressings established the necessity of rigid air surfaces when joining materials of different compressive rigidities. The two aluminum alloy matrix choices both were successfully formed into blade shells.

Design study of prestressed rotor spar concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gleich, D.

1980-01-01

Studies on the Bell Helicopter 540 Rotor System of the AH-1G helicopter were performed. The stiffness, mass and geometric configurations of the Bell blade were matched to give a dynamically similar prestressed composite blade. A multi-tube, prestressed composite spar blade configuration was designed for superior ballistic survivability at low life cycle cost. The composite spar prestresses, imparted during fabrication, are chosen to maintain compression in the high strength cryogenically stretchformed 304-L stainless steel liner and tension in the overwrapped HTS graphite fibers under operating loads. This prestressing results in greatly improved crack propagation and fatigue resistance as well as enhanced fiber stiffness properties. Advantages projected for the prestressed composite rotor spar concept include increased operational life and improved ballistic survivability at low life cycle cost.

33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at position...

33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at position...

33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at position...

33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at position...

33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at position...

Piezoelectric energy harvesting from multifunctional wing spars for UAVs: Part 1. Coupled modeling and preliminary analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erturk, A.; Anton, S. R.; Inman, D. J.

2009-03-01

This paper discusses the basic design factors for modifying an original wing spar to a multifunctional load-bearing - energy harvester wing spar. A distributed-parameter electromechanical formulation is given for modeling of a multilayer piezoelectric power generator beam for different combinations of the electrical outputs of piezoceramic layers. In addition to the coupled vibration response and voltage response expressions for a multimorph, strength formulations are given in order to estimate the maximum load input that can be sustained by the cantilevered structure without failure for a given safety factor. Embedding piezoceramics into an original wing spar for power generation tends to reduce the maximum load that can be sustained without failure and increase the total mass due to the brittle nature and large mass densities of typical piezoelectric ceramics. Two case studies are presented for demonstration. The theoretical case study discusses modification of a rectangular wing spar to a 3-layer generator wing spar with a certain restriction on mass addition for fixed dimensions. Power generation and strength analyses are provided using the electromechanical model. The experimental case study considers a 9-layer generator beam with aluminum, piezoceramic, Kapton and epoxy layers and investigates its power generation and load-bearing performances experimentally and analytically. This structure constitutes the main body of the multifunctional self-charging structure concept proposed by the authors. The second part of this work (experiments and storage applications) employs this multi-layer generator along with the thin-film battery layers in order to charge the battery layers using the electrical outputs of the piezoceramic layers.

SPAR1/RTEL1 maintains genomic stability by suppressing homologous recombination

PubMed Central

Barber, Louise J.; Youds, Jillian L.; Ward, Jordan D.; McIlwraith, Michael J.; O’Neil, Nigel J.; Petalcorin, Mark I.R.; Martin, Julie S.; Collis, Spencer J.; Cantor, Sharon B.; Auclair, Melissa; Tissenbaum, Heidi; West, Stephen C.; Rose, Ann M.; Boulton, Simon J.

2013-01-01

SUMMARY Inappropriate homologous recombination (HR) can cause gross chromosomal rearrangements that in mammalian cells may lead to tumorigenesis. In yeast, the Srs2 protein is an anti-recombinase that eliminates inappropriate recombination events, but the functional equivalent of Srs2 in higher eukaryotes has proven to be elusive. In this work, we identify C. elegans SPAR-1 as a functional analogue of Srs2 and describe its vertebrate counterpart, SPAR1/RTEL1, which is required for genome stability and tumour avoidance. We find that spar-1 mutant worms and SPAR1 knockdown human cells share characteristic phenotypes with yeast srs2 mutants, including inviability upon deletion of the sgs1/BLM homologue, hyper-recombination, and DNA damage sensitivity. In vitro, purified human SPAR1 antagonises HR by promoting the disassembly of D loop recombination intermediates in a reaction dependent upon ATP hydrolysis. We propose that loss of HR control following deregulation of SPAR1/RTEL1 may be a critical event that drives genome instability and cancer. PMID:18957201

SPAR thermal analysis processors reference manual, system level 16. Volume 1: Program executive. Volume 2: Theory. Volume 3: Demonstration problems. Volume 4: Experimental thermal element capability. Volume 5: Programmer reference

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marlowe, M. B.; Moore, R. A.; Whetstone, W. D.

1979-01-01

User instructions are given for performing linear and nonlinear steady state and transient thermal analyses with SPAR thermal analysis processors TGEO, SSTA, and TRTA. It is assumed that the user is familiar with basic SPAR operations and basic heat transfer theory.

Wind blade spar cap and method of making

DOEpatents

Mohamed, Mansour H [Raleigh, NC

2008-05-27

A wind blade spar cap for strengthening a wind blade including an integral, unitary three-dimensional woven material having a first end and a second end, corresponding to a root end of the blade and a tip end of the blade, wherein the material tapers in width from the first to the second end while maintaining a constant thickness and decreasing weight therebetween, the cap being capable of being affixed to the blade for providing increased strength with controlled variation in weight from the root end to the tip end based upon the tapered width of the material thereof. The present inventions also include the method of making the wind blade spar cap and a wind blade including the wind blade spar cap.

SPAR reference manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whetstone, W. D.

1976-01-01

The functions and operating rules of the SPAR system, which is a group of computer programs used primarily to perform stress, buckling, and vibrational analyses of linear finite element systems, were given. The following subject areas were discussed: basic information, structure definition, format system matrix processors, utility programs, static solutions, stresses, sparse matrix eigensolver, dynamic response, graphics, and substructure processors.

Space Processing Applications Rocket project SPAR III

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeves, F.

1978-01-01

This document presented the engineering report and science payload III test report and summarized the experiment objectives, design/operational concepts, and final results of each of five scientific experiments conducted during the third Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) flight flown by NASA in December 1976. The five individual SPAR experiments, covering a wide and varied range of scientific materials processing objectives, were entitled: Liquid Mixing, Interaction of Bubbles with Solidification Interfaces, Epitaxial Growth of Single Crystal Film, Containerless Processing of Beryllium, and Contact and Coalescence of Viscous Bodies.

Approximations for column effect in airplane wing spars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warner, Edward P; Short, Mac

1927-01-01

The significance attaching to "column effect" in airplane wing spars has been increasingly realized with the passage of time, but exact computations of the corrections to bending moment curves resulting from the existence of end loads are frequently omitted because of the additional labor involved in an analysis by rigorously correct methods. The present report represents an attempt to provide for approximate column effect corrections that can be graphically or otherwise expressed so as to be applied with a minimum of labor. Curves are plotted giving approximate values of the correction factors for single and two bay trusses of varying proportions and with various relationships between axial and lateral loads. It is further shown from an analysis of those curves that rough but useful approximations can be obtained from Perry's formula for corrected bending moment, with the assumed distance between points of inflection arbitrarily modified in accordance with rules given in the report. The discussion of general rules of variation of bending stress with axial load is accompanied by a study of the best distribution of the points of support along a spar for various conditions of loading.

Experimental and analytical investigation of dynamic characteristics of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lake, Renee C.; Izadpanah, Amir P.; Baucom, Robert M.

1993-02-01

The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite spars was manufactured with four plies of graphite-epoxy cloth prepreg. These spars were noncircular in cross-section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three different cross-sectional geometries were developed: D-shape, square, and flattened ellipse. Three spars of each type were fabricated to assess the degree of repeatability in the manufacturing process of extension-twist-coupled structures. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models. Five global modes were identified within the frequency range from 0 to 2000 Hz for each spar. The experimental results for only one D-shape spar could be determined, however, and agreed within 13.8 percent of the analytical results. Frequencies corresponding to the five global modes for the three square spars agreed within 9.5, 11.6, and 8.5 percent of the respective analytical results and for the three elliptical spars agreed within 4.9, 7.7, and 9.6 percent of the respective analytical results.

Experimental and analytical investigation of dynamic characteristics of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lake, Renee C.; Izadpanah, Amir P.; Baucom, Robert M.

1993-01-01

The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite spars was manufactured with four plies of graphite-epoxy cloth prepreg. These spars were noncircular in cross-section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three different cross-sectional geometries were developed: D-shape, square, and flattened ellipse. Three spars of each type were fabricated to assess the degree of repeatability in the manufacturing process of extension-twist-coupled structures. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models. Five global modes were identified within the frequency range from 0 to 2000 Hz for each spar. The experimental results for only one D-shape spar could be determined, however, and agreed within 13.8 percent of the analytical results. Frequencies corresponding to the five global modes for the three square spars agreed within 9.5, 11.6, and 8.5 percent of the respective analytical results and for the three elliptical spars agreed within 4.9, 7.7, and 9.6 percent of the respective analytical results.

Postflight analysis of the single-axis acoustic system on SPAR VI and recommendations for future flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naumann, R. J.; Oran, W. A.; Whymark, R. R.; Rey, C.

1981-01-01

The single axis acoustic levitator that was flown on SPAR VI malfunctioned. The results of a series of tests, analyses, and investigation of hypotheses that were undertaken to determine the probable cause of failure are presented, together with recommendations for future flights of the apparatus. The most probable causes of the SPAR VI failure were lower than expected sound intensity due to mechanical degradation of the sound source, and an unexpected external force that caused the experiment sample to move radially and eventually be lost from the acoustic energy well.

Fabrication and testing of prestressed composite rotor blade spar specimens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gleich, D.

1974-01-01

Prestressed composite spar specimens were fabricated and evaluated by crack propagation and ballistic penetration tests. The crack propagation tests on flawed specimens showed that the prestressed composite spar construction significantly suppresses crack growth. Damage from three high velocity 30 caliber projectile hits was confined to three small holes in the ballistic test specimen. No fragmentation or crack propagation was observed indicating good ballistic damage resistance. Rotor attachment approaches and improved structural performance configurations were identified. Design theory was verified by tests. The prestressed composite spar configuration consisted of a compressively prestressed high strength ARDEFORM 301 stainless steel liner overwrapped with pretensioned S-994 fiberglass.

Impact resistance of spar-shell composite fan blades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graff, J.; Stoltze, L.; Varholak, E. M.

1973-01-01

Composite spar-shell fan blades for a 1.83 meter (6 feet) diameter fan stage were fabricated and tested in a whirling arm facility to evaluate foreign object damage (FOD) resistance. The blades were made by adhesively bonding boron-epoxy shells on titanium spars and then adhesively bonding an Inconel 625 sheath on the leading edge. The rotating blades were individually tested at a tip speed of 800 feet per second. Impacting media used were gravel, rivets, bolt, nut, ice balls, simulated birds, and a real bird. Incidence angles were typical of those which might be experienced by STOL aircraft. The tests showed that blades of the design tested in this program have satisfactory impact resistance to small objects such as gravel, rivets, nuts, bolts, and two inch diameter ice balls. The blades suffered nominal damage when impacted with one-pound birds (9 to 10 ounce slice size). However, the shell was removed from the spar for a larger slice size.

Space Processing Application Rocket project, SPAR 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeves, F. (Compiler); Schaefer, D. (Compiler)

1980-01-01

Post flight results and analysis are presented on the following experiments: 'Agglomeration in Immiscible Liquids', 'Contained Polycrystalline Solidification in Low G', 'The Direct Observation of Dendrite Remelting and Macrosegregation in Casting', and 'Uniform Dispersion by Crystallization'. An engineering report on the performance of the SPAR Black Brant rocket is also included. Much useful data and information were accumulated for directing and developing experimental techniques and investigations toward an expanding commercially beneficial program of materials processing in the coming shuttle era.

Space Processing Applications Rocket project, SPAR 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeves, F. (Compiler); Chassay, R. (Compiler)

1976-01-01

The experiment objectives, design/operational concepts, and final results of each of nine scientific experiments conducted during the first Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) flight are summarized. The nine individual SPAR experiments, covering a wide and varied range of scientific materials processing objectives, were entitled: solidification of Pb-Sb eutectic, feasibility of producing closed-cell metal foams, characterization of rocket vibration environment by measurement of mixing of two liquids, uniform dispersions of crystallization processing, direct observation of solidification as a function of gravity levels, casting thoria dispersion-strengthened interfaces, contained polycrystalline solidification, and preparation of a special alloy for manufacturing of magnetic hard superconductor under zero-g environment.

The SPAR thermal analyzer: Present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlowe, M. B.; Whetstone, W. D.; Robinson, J. C.

The SPAR thermal analyzer, a system of finite-element processors for performing steady-state and transient thermal analyses, is described. The processors communicate with each other through the SPAR random access data base. As each processor is executed, all pertinent source data is extracted from the data base and results are stored in the data base. Steady state temperature distributions are determined by a direct solution method for linear problems and a modified Newton-Raphson method for nonlinear problems. An explicit and several implicit methods are available for the solution of transient heat transfer problems. Finite element plotting capability is available for model checkout and verification.

The SPAR thermal analyzer: Present and future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marlowe, M. B.; Whetstone, W. D.; Robinson, J. C.

1982-01-01

The SPAR thermal analyzer, a system of finite-element processors for performing steady-state and transient thermal analyses, is described. The processors communicate with each other through the SPAR random access data base. As each processor is executed, all pertinent source data is extracted from the data base and results are stored in the data base. Steady state temperature distributions are determined by a direct solution method for linear problems and a modified Newton-Raphson method for nonlinear problems. An explicit and several implicit methods are available for the solution of transient heat transfer problems. Finite element plotting capability is available for model checkout and verification.

Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

2014-06-01

In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

Development of moving spars for active aeroelastic structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amprikidis, Michael; Cooper, Jonathan E.

2003-08-01

This paper describes a research program investigating the development of "moving spars" to enable active aeroelastic control of aerospace structures. A number of different concepts have been considered as part of the EU funded Active Aeroelastic Aircraft Structures (3AS) project that enable the control of the bending and torsional stiffness of aircraft wings through changes in the internal aircraft structure. The aeroelastic behaviour, in particular static deflections, can be controlled as desired through changes in the position, orientation and stiffness of the spars. The concept described in this paper is based upon translational movement of the spars. This will result in changes in the torsional stiffness and shear centre position whilst leaving the bending stiffness unaffected. An analytical study of the aeroelastic behaviour demonstrates the benefits of using such an approach. An experimental investigation involving construction and bench testing of the concepts was undertaken to demonstrate its feasibility. Finally, a wind tunnel test of simple wing models constructed using these concepts was performed. The simulated and experimental results show that it is possible to control the wind twist in practice.

Advanced grid-stiffened composite shells for applications in heavy-lift helicopter rotor blade spars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayanan Nampy, Sreenivas

Modern rotor blades are constructed using composite materials to exploit their superior structural performance compared to metals. Helicopter rotor blade spars are conventionally designed as monocoque structures. Blades of the proposed Heavy Lift Helicopter are envisioned to be as heavy as 800 lbs when designed using the monocoque spar design. A new and innovative design is proposed to replace the conventional spar designs with light weight grid-stiffened composite shell. Composite stiffened shells have been known to provide excellent strength to weight ratio and damage tolerance with an excellent potential to reduce weight. Conventional stringer--rib stiffened construction is not suitable for rotor blade spars since they are limited in generating high torsion stiffness that is required for aeroelastic stability of the rotor. As a result, off-axis (helical) stiffeners must be provided. This is a new design space where innovative modeling techniques are needed. The structural behavior of grid-stiffened structures under axial, bending, and torsion loads, typically experienced by rotor blades need to be accurately predicted. The overall objective of the present research is to develop and integrate the necessary design analysis tools to conduct a feasibility study in employing grid-stiffened shells for heavy-lift rotor blade spars. Upon evaluating the limitations in state-of-the-art analytical models in predicting the axial, bending, and torsion stiffness coefficients of grid and grid-stiffened structures, a new analytical model was developed. The new analytical model based on the smeared stiffness approach was developed employing the stiffness matrices of the constituent members of the grid structure such as an arch, helical, or straight beam representing circumferential, helical, and longitudinal stiffeners. This analysis has the capability to model various stiffening configurations such as angle-grid, ortho-grid, and general-grid. Analyses were performed using an

Spindled and hollow spars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blyth, J D

1926-01-01

The most usual method of arriving at the maximum amount of spindling or hollowing out permissible in the case of any particular spar section is by trial and error, a process which is apt to become laborious in the absence of good guessing - or luck. The following tables have been got out with the object of making it possible to arrive with certainty at a suitable section at the first attempt.

SPAR electrophoretic separation experiments, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cosmi, F. M.

1978-01-01

The opportunity to use a sounding rocket for separation experiments is a logical continuation of earlier electrophoresis demonstrations and experiments. A free-flow electrophoresis system, developed under the Advanced Applications Flight Experiment (AAFE) Program, was designed so that it would fit into a rocket payload. The SPAR program provides a unique opportunity to complete the intial stages of microgravity testing prior to any Shuttle applications. The objective of the work described in this report was to ensure proper operating parameters for the defined experimental samples to be used in the SPAR Electrophoretic Separation Experiment. Ground based experiments were undertaken not only to define flight parameters but also to serve as a point of comparison for flight results. Possible flight experiment problem areas were also studied such as sample interaction due to sedimentation, concentration effects and storage effects. Late in the program anomalies of field strengths and buffer conductivities were also investigated.

Time-Motion and Biological Responses in Simulated Mixed Martial Arts Sparring Matches.

PubMed

Coswig, Victor S; Ramos, Solange de P; Del Vecchio, Fabrício B

2016-08-01

Coswig, VS, Ramos, SdP, and Del Vecchio, FB. Time-motion and biological responses in simulated mixed martial arts sparring matches. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2156-2163, 2016-Simulated matches are a relevant component of training for mixed martial arts (MMA) athletes. This study aimed to characterize time-motion responses and investigate physiological stress and neuromuscular changes related to MMA sparring matches. Thirteen athletes with an average age of 25 ± 5 years, body mass of 81.3 ± 9.5 kg, height of 176.2 ± 5.5 cm, and time of practice in MMA of 39 ± 25 months participated in the study. The fighters executed three 5-minute rounds with 1-minute intervals. Blood and salivary samples were collected and physical tests and psychometric questionnaires administered at 3 time points: before (PRE), immediately after (POST), and 48 hours after the combat (48 h). Statistical analysis applied analysis of variance for repeated measurements. In biochemical analysis, significant changes (p ≤ 0.05) were identified between PRE and POST (glucose: 80.3 ± 12.7 to 156.5 ± 19.1 mg·ml; lactate: 4 ± 1.7 to 15.6 ± 4.8 mmol·dl), POST and 48 hours (glucose: 156.5 ± 19.1 to 87.6 ± 15.5 mg·ml; lactate: 15.6 ± 4.8 to 2.9 ± 3.5 mmol·dl; urea: 44.1 ± 8.9 to 36.3 ± 7.8 mg·ml), and PRE and 48 hours (creatine kinase [CK]: 255.8 ± 137.4 to 395.9 ± 188.7 U/L). In addition, time-motion analyses showed a total high:low intensity of 1:2 and an effort:pause ratio of 1:3. In conclusion, simulated MMA sparring matches feature moderate to high intensity and a low degree of musculoskeletal damage, which can be seen by absence of physical performance and decrease in CK. Results of the study indicate that sparring training could be introduced into competitive microcycles to improve technical and tactical aspects of MMA matches, due to the high motor specificity and low muscle damage.

Space processing applications rocket project SPAR 4, engineering report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeves, F. (Compiler)

1980-01-01

The materials processing experiments in space, conducted on the SPAR 4 Black Brant VC rocket, are described and discussed. The SPAR 4 payload configuration, the rocket performance, and the flight sequence are reported. The results, analyses, and anomalies of the four experiments are discussed. The experiments conducted were the uniform dispersions of crystallization processing, the contained polycrstalline solidification in low gravity, the containerless processing of ferromagnetic materials, and the containerless processing technology. The instrumentation operations, payload power relay anomaly, relay postflight operational test, and relay postflight shock test are reported.

Numerical wind-tunnel simulation for Spar platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Wenjun

2017-05-01

ANSYS Fluent software is used in the simulation analysis of numerical wind tunnel model for the upper Spar platform module. Design Modeler (DM), Meshing, FLUENT and CFD-POST are chosen in the numerical calculation. And DM is used to deal with and repair the geometric model, and Meshing is used to mesh the model, Fluent is used to set up and solve the calculation condition, finally CFD-POST is used for post-processing of the results. The wind loads are obtained under different direction and incidence angles. Finally, comparison is made between numerical results and empirical formula.

Multiple piece turbine engine airfoil with a structural spar

DOEpatents

Vance, Steven J [Orlando, FL

2011-10-11

A multiple piece turbine airfoil having an outer shell with an airfoil tip that is attached to a root with an internal structural spar is disclosed. The root may be formed from first and second sections that include an internal cavity configured to receive and secure the one or more components forming the generally elongated airfoil. The internal structural spar may be attached to an airfoil tip and place the generally elongated airfoil in compression. The configuration enables each component to be formed from different materials to reduce the cost of the materials and to optimize the choice of material for each component.

East Spar: Alliance approach for offshore gasfield development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-04-01

East spar is a gas/condensate field 25 miles west of Barrow Island, offshore Western Australia. Proved plus probable reserves at the time of development were estimated at 430 Bcf gas and 28 million bbl of condensate. The field was discovered in early 1993 when the Western Australia gas market was deregulated and the concept of a gas pipeline to the gold fields was proposed. This created a window of opportunity for East Spar, but only if plans could be established quickly. A base-case development plan was established to support gas marketing while alternative plans could be developed in parallel. Themore » completed East Spar facilities comprise two subsea wells, a subsea gathering system, and a multiphase (gas/condensate/water) pipeline to new gas-processing facilities. The subsea facilities are controlled through a navigation, communication, and control (NCC) buoy. The control room and gas-processing plant are 39 miles east of the field on Varanus Island. Sales gas is exported through a pre-existing gas-sales pipeline to the Dampier-Bunbury and Goldfields Gas Transmission pipelines. Condensate is stored in and exported by use of pre-existing facilities on Varanus Island. Field development from approval to first production took 22 months. The paper describes its field development.« less

Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Through selection of resistance to sparfloxacin, an attenuated Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar was obtained from its virulent parent strain S. agalactiae 138P. The full genome of S. agalactiae 138spar is 1,838,126 bp. The availability of this genome will allow comparative genomics to identi...

Sparring and Cognitive Function in Professional Boxers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jordan, Barry D.; And Others

1996-01-01

Professional boxers provided information about their careers and training practices and completed neuropsychological testing. Test performance did not relate to age, boxing record, career length, or knockout history. The amount of sparring inversely related to performance on several of the tests, with impairment in the areas of attention,…

PROOF OF CONCEPT FOR A HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD FOR HEURISTIC USABILITY EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Jeffrey C. Joe

2005-09-01

An ongoing issue within human-computer interaction (HCI) is the need for simplified or “discount” methods. The current economic slowdown has necessitated innovative methods that are results driven and cost effective. The myriad methods of design and usability are currently being cost-justified, and new techniques are actively being explored that meet current budgets and needs. Recent efforts in human reliability analysis (HRA) are highlighted by the ten-year development of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk HRA (SPAR-H) method. The SPAR-H method has been used primarily for determining humancentered risk at nuclear power plants. The SPAR-H method, however, shares task analysis underpinnings withmore » HCI. Despite this methodological overlap, there is currently no HRA approach deployed in heuristic usability evaluation. This paper presents an extension of the existing SPAR-H method to be used as part of heuristic usability evaluation in HCI.« less

East Spar field models new development techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abraham, K.S.

1997-05-01

In recent years, Western Australia`s (WA`s) offshore E and P sector has become a fertile area for field development experimentation and innovation. The region features perhaps the largest concentration of subsea wells and floating production systems outside of the North Sea and Brazil. By all estimates, this trend should continue, given the backlog of discovered fields that increasingly qualify for development through technological progress. One of the most unique projects on the North West Shelf (NWS), East Spar gas and condensate field was completed in late 1996, only three-and-a-half years after it was discovered. On behalf of its partners, operatormore » Western Mining Corp. developed East Spar through an alliance framework with its primary contractors. This unusual relationship proved extremely beneficial for solving technical and logistical problems while still keeping the project on a fast track. The paper discusses the background of the project, field control and Navigation, Communication and Control (NCC) buoy development, subsea systems, processing facilities and logistical review.« less

Direct Adaptive Rejection of Vortex-Induced Disturbances for a Powered SPAR Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanZwieten, Tannen S.; Balas, Mark J.; VanZwieten, James H.; Driscoll, Frederick R.

2009-01-01

The Rapidly Deployable Stable Platform (RDSP) is a novel vessel designed to be a reconfigurable, stable at-sea platform. It consists of a detachable catamaran and spar, performing missions with the spar extending vertically below the catamaran and hoisting it completely out of the water. Multiple thrusters located along the spar allow it to be actively controlled in this configuration. A controller is presented in this work that uses an adaptive feedback algorithm in conjunction with Direct Adaptive Disturbance Rejection (DADR) to mitigate persistent, vortex-induced disturbances. Given the frequency of a disturbance, the nominal DADR scheme adaptively compensates for its unknown amplitude and phase. This algorithm is extended to adapt to a disturbance frequency that is only coarsely known by including a Phase Locked Loop (PLL). The PLL improves the frequency estimate on-line, allowing the modified controller to reduce vortex-induced motions by more than 95% using achievable thrust inputs.

Metal spar/superhybrid shell composite fan blades. [for application to turbofan engins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salemme, C. T.; Murphy, G. C.

1979-01-01

The use of superhybrid materials in the manufacture and testing of large fan blades is analyzed. The FOD resistance of large metal spar/superhybrid fan blades is investigated. The technical effort reported was comprised of: (1) preliminary blade design; (2) detailed analysis of two selected superhybrid blade designs; (3) manufacture of two process evaluation blades and destructive evaluation; and (4) manufacture and whirligig testing of six prototype superhybrid blades.

Filament-wound spar shell graphite/epoxy fan blades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yao, S.

1976-01-01

The methodology for fabrication of wet filament wound spar shell fan blades is presented. All principal structural elements were filament wound, assembled, formed, bonded and co-cured in a female mold. A pair of blades were fabricated as one integral unit and parted into two after curing.

Elimination sequence optimization for SPAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hogan, Harry A.

1986-01-01

SPAR is a large-scale computer program for finite element structural analysis. The program allows user specification of the order in which the joints of a structure are to be eliminated since this order can have significant influence over solution performance, in terms of both storage requirements and computer time. An efficient elimination sequence can improve performance by over 50% for some problems. Obtaining such sequences, however, requires the expertise of an experienced user and can take hours of tedious effort to affect. Thus, an automatic elimination sequence optimizer would enhance productivity by reducing the analysts' problem definition time and by lowering computer costs. Two possible methods for automating the elimination sequence specifications were examined. Several algorithms based on the graph theory representations of sparse matrices were studied with mixed results. Significant improvement in the program performance was achieved, but sequencing by an experienced user still yields substantially better results. The initial results provide encouraging evidence that the potential benefits of such an automatic sequencer would be well worth the effort.

SPAR X Technical Report for Experiment 76-22 Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bethin, J.

1984-01-01

The effects of gravity on Bridgman-Stockbarger directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi were studied in reduced gravity aboard the SPAR X flight and compared to normal-gravity investigations and previous eutectic Bi/MnBi SPAR flight experiments. The directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi results in either a dendritic structure connected with local cooperative growth or a coupled low volume fraction faceted/non faceted aligned rod eutectic whose Mn macrosegregation, MnBi rod size, interrod spacing, and thermal and magnetic properties are sensitive functions of the solidification processing conditions. Two hypoeutectic and two hypereutectic samples were solidified during 605 sec of furnace travel, with an initial 265 sec low-gravity interval. Comparison Earth-gravity samples were solidified in the same furance assembly under identical processing conditions. Macrosegregation in the low-g samples was consistent with a metastable increase in Mn solubility in the Bi matrix, in partial agreement with previous Bi/MnBi SPAR findings of MnBi volume reduction.

33 CFR 147.825 - Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) Description. The Chevron Genesis Spar, Green Canyon 205A (GC205A), is located at position 27°46′46.365″ N, 90... is a safety zone. (b) Regulation. No vessel may enter or remain in this safety zone except the...

Graphics and composite material computer program enhancements for SPAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farley, G. L.; Baker, D. J.

1980-01-01

User documentation is provided for additional computer programs developed for use in conjunction with SPAR. These programs plot digital data, simplify input for composite material section properties, and compute lamina stresses and strains. Sample problems are presented including execution procedures, program input, and graphical output.

Physiological Responses and Time-Motion Analysis of Small Combat Games in Kickboxing: Impact of Ring Size and Number of Within-Round Sparring Partners.

PubMed

Ouergui, Ibrahim; Houcine, Nizar; Marzouki, Hamza; Davis, Philip; Franchini, Emerson; Gmada, Nabil; Bouhlel, Ezzedine

2017-07-01

Ouergui, I, Houcine, N, Marzouki, H, Davis, P, Franchini, E, Gmada, N, and Bouhlel, E. Physiological responses and time-motion analysis of small combat games in kickboxing: impact of ring size and number of within-round sparring partners. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1840-1846, 2017-The study aimed to investigate the physiological responses and time-structure of small combat games (SCGs) in kickboxing according to ring sizes and number of sparring partners. Twenty athletes from regional (n = 13) and national levels (n = 7) participated in the study (mean ± SD, age: 20.3 ± 0.9 years; height: 177 ± 4.8 cm; body mass: 71.8 ± 10.5 kg). Blood lactate concentration [La] was measured before and after bouts, and the delta (Δ) was determined. Heart rate (HR) was measured throughout and HR and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) were also measured postbout. The HRpre, HRmean, and percentage of peak HR (%HRpeak) were used for analysis. The HRpeak was determined during a cycle ergometer graded exercise test. Each athlete was confronted by 1 (1 vs. 1; no sparring partner change), 2 (1 vs. 2) and 4 opponents (1 vs. 4) within-round (sparring partner change every 1 minute or 30 seconds, respectively) in different ring sizes (i.e., 2×2 m, 4×4 m, and 6×6 m). All combats were recorded and analyzed to determine the duration of different activity phases (high-intensity activities [HIA], low-intensity actions [LIA], and referee pause [P]). Results showed that values for HRpre and HRmean when opposed by a single individual (1 vs. 1) were lower than other conditions (all p < 0.001). Moreover, %HRpeak values in 1 vs. 1 were lower than in other conditions and higher in 4 × 4 m compared with other sizes. [La]pre, post, and the Δ did not differ among all conditions (p > 0.05). The RPE scores were lower in 1 vs. 1 compared with other conditions (p < 0.001), with no ring sizes effect (p > 0.05). For time-motion variables, HIA values were lower in 1 vs. 1 than in the 2 other conditions

Regular paths in SparQL: querying the NCI Thesaurus.

PubMed

Detwiler, Landon T; Suciu, Dan; Brinkley, James F

2008-11-06

OWL, the Web Ontology Language, provides syntax and semantics for representing knowledge for the semantic web. Many of the constructs of OWL have a basis in the field of description logics. While the formal underpinnings of description logics have lead to a highly computable language, it has come at a cognitive cost. OWL ontologies are often unintuitive to readers lacking a strong logic background. In this work we describe GLEEN, a regular path expression library, which extends the RDF query language SparQL to support complex path expressions over OWL and other RDF-based ontologies. We illustrate the utility of GLEEN by showing how it can be used in a query-based approach to defining simpler, more intuitive views of OWL ontologies. In particular we show how relatively simple GLEEN-enhanced SparQL queries can create views of the OWL version of the NCI Thesaurus that match the views generated by the web-based NCI browser.

Demonstration of Enabling Spar-Shell Cooling Technology in Gas Turbines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Downs, James

2014-12-29

In this Advanced Turbine Program-funded Phase III project, Florida Turbine Technologies, Inc. (FTT) has developed and tested, at a pre-commercial prototypescale, spar-shell turbine airfoils in a commercial gas turbine. The airfoil development is based upon FTT’s research and development to date in Phases I and II of Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) grants. During this program, FTT has partnered with an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), Siemens Energy, to produce sparshell turbine components for the first pre-commercial prototype test in an F-Class industrial gas turbine engine and has successfully completed validation testing. This project will further the commercialization of this newmore » technology in F-frame and other highly cooled turbine airfoil applications. FTT, in cooperation with Siemens, intends to offer the spar-shell vane as a first-tier supplier for retrofit applications and new large frame industrial gas turbines. The market for the spar-shell vane for these machines is huge. According to Forecast International, 3,211 new gas turbines units (in the >50MW capacity size range) will be ordered in ten years from 2007 to 2016. FTT intends to enter the market in a low rate initial production. After one year of successful extended use, FTT will quickly ramp up production and sales, with a target to capture 1% of the market within the first year and 10% within 5 years (2020).« less

Nondestructive Inspection of Piper PA-25 Forward Spar Fuselage Attachment Fitting

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-09-01

The Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Aging Aircraft NDI Validation : Center (AANC) at Sandia National Laboratoriess applied two nondestructive : inspection (NDI) techniques for the inspection of a Piper PA-25 forward spar : fuselage attachme...

Use of TCSR with Split Windings for Shortening the Spar Cycle Time in 500 kV Lines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matinyan, A. M., E-mail: al-drm@mail.ru; Peshkov, M. V.; Karpov, V. N.

The arc-fault recharge phenomenon in single-phase automatic reclosure (SPAR) of a line is examined. Abrief description is given of the design of a 500 kV thyristor controlled shunt reactor (TCSR) with split valve-side windings. This type of TCSR is shown to effectively quench a single-phase arc fault in a power transmission line and shortens the SPAR cycle time.

Boxing sparring complicated by an acute subdural haematoma and brainstem haemorrhage.

PubMed

Hart, Michael G; Trivedi, Rikin A; Hutchinson, Peter J

2012-10-01

A professional boxer developed an acute subdural haematoma after boxing sparring. Despite timely surgical decompression, he had a poor overall outcome predominantly from a delayed brainstem haematoma. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was used to elucidate the pathophysiology of the patients' injury and clinical condition.

Security and Privacy Assurance Research (SPAR) Pilot Final Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-30

for a single querier interacting with a single encrypted database. In order to deploy the technology, the underlying cryptography must support multiple...underlying cryptography . A full SPAR system should be evaluated too including the software itself. Software should be checked for consistency with...ESPADA included cryptography libraries (e.g., gnutls, nettle, and openssl). Consider a hypothetical scenario in which a vulnerability is discovered in

SPAR: a security- and power-aware routing protocol for wireless ad hoc and sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberoi, Vikram; Chigan, Chunxiao

2005-05-01

Wireless Ad Hoc and Sensor Networks (WAHSNs) are vulnerable to extensive attacks as well as severe resource constraints. To fulfill the security needs, many security enhancements have been proposed. Like wise, from resource constraint perspective, many power aware schemes have been proposed to save the battery power. However, we observe that for the severely resource limited and extremely vulnerable WAHSNs, taking security or power (or any other resource) alone into consideration for protocol design is rather inadequate toward the truly "secure-and-useful" WAHSNs. For example, from resource constraint perspective, we identify one of the potential problems, the Security-Capable-Congestion (SCC) behavior, for the WAHSNs routing protocols where only the security are concerned. On the other hand, the design approach where only scarce resource is concerned, such as many power-aware WAHSNs protocols, leaves security unconsidered and is undesirable to many WAHSNs application scenarios. Motivated by these observations, we propose a co-design approach, where both the high security and effective resource consumption are targeted for WAHSNs protocol design. Specifically, we propose a novel routing protocol, Security- and Power- Aware Routing (SPAR) protocol based on this co-design approach. In SPAR, the routing decisions are made based on both security and power as routing criteria. The idea of the SPAR mechanism is routing protocol independent and therefore can be broadly integrated into any of the existing WAHSNs routing protocols. The simulation results show that SPAR outperforms the WAHSNs routing protocols where security or power alone is considered, significantly. This research finding demonstrates the proposed security- and resource- aware co-design approach is promising towards the truly "secure-and-useful" WAHSNs.

SparCLeS: dynamic l₁ sparse classifiers with level sets for robust beard/moustache detection and segmentation.

PubMed

Le, T Hoang Ngan; Luu, Khoa; Savvides, Marios

2013-08-01

Robust facial hair detection and segmentation is a highly valued soft biometric attribute for carrying out forensic facial analysis. In this paper, we propose a novel and fully automatic system, called SparCLeS, for beard/moustache detection and segmentation in challenging facial images. SparCLeS uses the multiscale self-quotient (MSQ) algorithm to preprocess facial images and deal with illumination variation. Histogram of oriented gradients (HOG) features are extracted from the preprocessed images and a dynamic sparse classifier is built using these features to classify a facial region as either containing skin or facial hair. A level set based approach, which makes use of the advantages of both global and local information, is then used to segment the regions of a face containing facial hair. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed system in detecting and segmenting facial hair regions in images drawn from three databases, i.e., the NIST Multiple Biometric Grand Challenge (MBGC) still face database, the NIST Color Facial Recognition Technology FERET database, and the Labeled Faces in the Wild (LFW) database.

An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Sinpyo; Lee, Inwon; Park, Seong Hyeon; Lee, Cheolmin; Chun, Ho-Hwan; Lim, Hee Chang

2015-09-01

An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine is presented. The effects of the Center of Gravity (COG), mooring line spring constant, and fair-lead location on the turbine's motion in response to regular waves are investigated. Experimental results show that for a typical mooring system of a SPAR buoy-type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT), the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of the turbine can be considered negligible. However, the pitch decreases notably as the COG increases. The COG and spring constant of the mooring line have a negligible effect on the fairlead displacement. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis show that the wind turbine motion and its sensitivity to changes in the mooring system and COG are very large near resonant frequencies. The test results can be used to validate numerical simulation tools for FOWTs.

Program for impact testing of spar-shell fan blades, test report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ravenhall, R.; Salemme, C. T.

1978-01-01

Six filament-wound, composite spar-shell fan blades were impact tested in a whirligig relative to foreign object damage resulting from ingestion of birds into the fan blades of a QCSEE-type engine. Four of the blades were tested by injecting a simulated two pound bird into the path of the rotating blade and two were tested by injecting a starling into the path of the blade.

Navy Stock Point Local Unique Computer Programs: An Analysis for Transition and Management Under the Stock Point ADP Replacement (SPAR) Project.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-03-01

Project (SPAR). An impor- tant issue of the replacement will be the conversion of existing co uter software to allow transition from the current... issue of the replacement will be the conversion of existing computer software to allow transition from the current hardware environment to the replacement...36 G. LOCAL PROGRAM C1/C2 CONVERSION CONTRACT . . . 38 5 H. LOCAL PROGRAM COMMONALITY ISSUES ....... 41 I. SUMMARY

Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The complete genome of a sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae vaccine strain 138spar is 1,838,126 bp in size. The genome has 1892 coding sequences and 82 RNAs. The annotation of the genome is added by the NCBI Prokaryotic Genome Annotation Pipeline. The publishing of this genome will allo...

Multi-Unit Considerations for Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

St. Germain, S.; Boring, R.; Banaseanu, G.

This paper uses the insights from the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) methodology to help identify human actions currently modeled in the single unit PSA that may need to be modified to account for additional challenges imposed by a multi-unit accident as well as identify possible new human actions that might be modeled to more accurately characterize multi-unit risk. In identifying these potential human action impacts, the use of the SPAR-H strategy to include both errors in diagnosis and errors in action is considered as well as identifying characteristics of a multi-unit accident scenario that may impact themore » selection of the performance shaping factors (PSFs) used in SPAR-H. The lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi reactor accident will be addressed to further help identify areas where improved modeling may be required. While these multi-unit impacts may require modifications to a Level 1 PSA model, it is expected to have much more importance for Level 2 modeling. There is little currently written specifically about multi-unit HRA issues. A review of related published research will be presented. While this paper cannot answer all issues related to multi-unit HRA, it will hopefully serve as a starting point to generate discussion and spark additional ideas towards the proper treatment of HRA in a multi-unit PSA.« less

Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

DOE PAGES

Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; ...

2014-12-16

In this study, high-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50 th scalemore » in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.« less

Effects of Sparring Load on Reaction Speed and Punch Force During the Precompetition and Competition Periods in Boxing.

PubMed

Hukkanen, Esa; Häkkinen, Keijo

2017-06-01

Seven, male, national-level boxers (age, 20.3 ± 2.7 years; height, 1.80 ± 0.06 m; mass, 73.8 ± 11.1 kg) participated in this study to investigate the effects of sparring on reaction time and punch force of straight punches measured during the precompetition and competition periods. Heart rate and blood lactate concentrations were also monitored. Sparring load was chosen in accordance with the current rules: 3 × 3-minute bouts with 1-minute break in between. Reaction time of rear straight lengthened (p < 0.01) during the sparring load of the precompetition period after the third round (to 390 milliseconds) in comparison to the competition period (to 310 milliseconds). Reaction time of lead straight lengthened (p ≤ 0.05) between the first and third round during the precompetition with no differences during the competition period. Both rear and lead straight punch forces were greater at all measurement points during the precompetition compared with the competition period. Punch forces increased for both rear and lead straight between the first and third rounds with the highest forces after third round during the precompetition (rear straight, 209 kg) and competition (rear straight, 176 kg) periods. Blood lactate levels increased after every round during both periods being at its greatest after the third round (17 mmol·L during the precompetition and 13 mmol·L during the competition period). The present sparring-induced differences in reaction time and punch forces of straight punches during the precompetition compared with the competition period may be the result of different volume and intensity of training with different goals in boxing-specific and explosive strength training.

Design, fabrication, and test of a steel spar wind turbine blade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, T. L.; Sirocky, P. J., Jr.; Viterna, L. A.

1979-01-01

The design and fabrication of wind turbine blades based on 60 foot steel spars are discussed. Performance and blade load information is given and compared to analytical prediction. In addition, performance is compared to that of the original MOD-O aluminum blades. Costs for building the two blades are given, and a projection is made for the cost in mass production. Design improvements to reduce weight and improve fatigue life are suggested.

Feasibility of producing closed-cell metal foams in a zero-gravity environment from sputter deposited inert gas-bearing metals and alloys. Post-flight technical report, SPAR flight 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patten, J. W.; Greenwell, E. N.

1976-01-01

Metallography from experiment 24-10 obtained on the second space processing applications rocket (SPAR) flight is discussed. Results are considered along with results from the related experiments on the first SPAR flight. Conclusions are presented.

A guided-wave system for monitoring the wing skin-to-spar bond in unmanned aerial vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matt, Howard; Bartoli, Ivan; Lanza di Scalea, Francesco; Marzani, Alessandro; Coccia, Stefano; Oliver, Joseph; Kosmatka, John; Rizzo, Piervincenzo; Restivo, Gaetano

2005-05-01

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are being increasingly used in military as well as civil applications. A critical part of the structure is the adhesive bond between the wing skin and the supporting spar. If not detected early, bond defects originating during manufacturing or in service flight can lead to inefficient flight performance and eventual global failure. This paper will present results from a bond inspection system based on attached piezoelectric disks probing the skin-to-spar bondline with ultrasonic guided waves in the hundreds of kilohertz range. The test components were CFRP composite panels of two different fiber layups bonded to a CFRP composite tube using epoxy adhesive. Three types of bond conditions were simulated, namely regions of poor cohesive strength, regions with localized disbonds and well bonded regions. The root mean square and variance of the received time-domain signals and their discrete wavelet decompositions were computed for the dominant modes propagating through the various bond regions in two different inspection configurations. Semi-analytical finite element analysis of the bonded multilayer joint was also carried out to identify and predict the sensitivity of the predominant carrier modes to the different bond defects. Emphasis of this research is based upon designing a built-in system for monitoring the structural integrity of bonded joints in UAVs and other aerospace structures.

2. Spar, bramble, and the larger cutters storis (W38) make ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

2. Spar, bramble, and the larger cutters storis (W38) make their way through arctic ice during the first transit of the northwest passage by a U.S. vessel. The lead 180 has a weight suspended over its starboard side. By swinging this weight back and forth across the centerline, the vessel can rock to free herself from ice. - U.S. Coast Guard Buoy Tenders, 180' Class, U.S. Coast Guard Headquarters, 2100 Second Street Southwest, Washington, District of Columbia, DC

Experimental Characterization and Validation of Simultaneous Gust Alleviation and Energy Harvesting for Multifunctional Wing Spars

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

U0=15m/s,  Lv  =350m   Cloud Wind and Clear Sky Gust Simulation Using Dryden PSD* Harvested Energy from Normal Vibration (Red) to...energy control law based on limited energy constraints 4) Experimentally validated simultaneous energy harvesting and vibration control Summary...Experimental Characterization and Validation of Simultaneous Gust Alleviation and Energy Harvesting for Multifunctional Wing Spars AFOSR

Optimal Topology of Aircraft Rib and Spar Structures under Aeroelastic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanford, Bret K.; Dunning, Peter D.

2014-01-01

Several topology optimization problems are conducted within the ribs and spars of a wing box. It is desired to locate the best position of lightening holes, truss/cross-bracing, etc. A variety of aeroelastic metrics are isolated for each of these problems: elastic wing compliance under trim loads and taxi loads, stress distribution, and crushing loads. Aileron effectiveness under a constant roll rate is considered, as are dynamic metrics: natural vibration frequency and flutter. This approach helps uncover the relationship between topology and aeroelasticity in subsonic transport wings, and can therefore aid in understanding the complex aircraft design process which must eventually consider all these metrics and load cases simultaneously.

SHRIMP U-Pb ages of xenotime and monazite from the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana: Implications for ore genesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aleinikoff, John N.; Hayes, Timothy S.; Evans, Karl V.; Mazdab, Frank K.; Pillers, Renee M.; Fanning, C. Mark

2012-01-01

Xenotime occurs as epitaxial overgrowths on detrital zircons in the Mesoproterozoic Revett Formation (Belt Supergroup) at the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana. The deposit formed during diagenesis of Revett strata, where oxidizing metal-bearing hydrothermal fluids encountered a reducing zone. Samples for geochronology were collected from several mineral zones. Xenotime overgrowths (1–30 μm wide) were found in polished thin sections from five ore and near-ore zones (chalcocite-chlorite, bornite-calcite, galena-calcite, chalcopyrite-ankerite, and pyrite-calcite), but not in more distant zones across the region. Thirty-two in situ SHRIMP U-Pb analyses on xenotime overgrowths yield a weighted average of 207Pb/206Pb ages of 1409 ± 8 Ma, interpreted as the time of mineralization. This age is about 40 to 60 m.y. after deposition of the Revett Formation. Six other xenotime overgrowths formed during a younger event at 1304 ± 19 Ma. Several isolated grains of xenotime have 207Pb/206Pb ages in the range of 1.67 to 1.51 Ga, and thus are considered detrital in origin. Trace element data can distinguish Spar Lake xenotimes of different origins. Based on in situ SHRIMP analysis, detrital xenotime has heavy rare earth elements-enriched patterns similar to those of igneous xenotime, whereas xenotime overgrowths of inferred hydrothermal origin have hump-shaped (i.e., middle rare earth elements-enriched) patterns. The two ages of hydrothermal xenotime can be distinguished by slightly different rare earth elements patterns. In addition, 1409 Ma xenotime overgrowths have higher Eu and Gd contents than the 1304 Ma overgrowths. Most xenotime overgrowths from the Spar Lake deposit have elevated As concentrations, further suggesting a genetic relationship between the xenotime formation and Cu-Ag mineralization.

Criteria for representing circular arc and sine wave spar webs by non-curved elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jenkins, J. M.

1979-01-01

The basic problem of how to simply represent a curved web of a spar in a finite element structural model was addressed. The ratio of flat web to curved web axial deformations and longitudinal rotations were calculated using NASTRAN models. Multiplying factors were developed from these calculations for various web thicknesses. These multiplying factors can be applied directly to the area and moment of inertia inputs of the finite element model. This allows the thermal stress relieving configurations of sine wave and circular arc webs to be simply accounted for in finite element structural models.

The CAnadian Surface Prediction ARchive (CaSPAr): A Platform to Enhance Environmental Modelling in Canada and Globally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolson, B.; Mai, J.; Kornelsen, K. C.; Coulibaly, P. D.; Anctil, F.; Fortin, V.; Leahy, M.; Hall, B.

2017-12-01

Environmental models are tools for the modern society for a wide range of applications such as flood and drought monitoring, carbon storage and release estimates, predictions of power generation amounts, or reservoir management amongst others. Environmental models differ in the types of processes they incorporate, where land surface models focus on the energy, water, and carbon cycle of the land and hydrological models concentrate mainly on the water cycle. All these models, however, have in common that they rely on environmental input data from ground observations such as temperature, precipitation and/or radiation to force the model. If the same model is run in forecast mode, numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are needed to replace these ground observations. Therefore, it is critical that NWP data be available to develop models and validate forecast performance. These data are provided by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) on a daily basis. MSC provides multiple products ranging from large scale global models ( 33km/grid cell) to high resolution pan-Canadian models ( 2.5km/grid cell). Operational products providing forecasts in real-time are made publicly available only at the time of issue through various means with new forecasts issued 2-4 times per day. Unfortunately, long term storage of these data are offline and relatively inaccessible to the research and operational communities. The new Canadian Surface Prediction Archive (CaSPAr) platform is an accessible rolling archive of 10 of MSC's NWP products. The 500TB platform will allow users to extract specific time periods, regions of interest and variables of interest in an easy to access NetCDF format. CaSPAr and community contributed post-processing scripts and tools are being developed such that the users, for example, can interpolate the data due to their needs or auto-generate model forcing files. We will present the CaSPAr platform and provide some insights in the current development of the web

Modelling soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) in the immediate period after a grassland fire in Lithuania.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, Paulo; Cerda, Artemi; Misiūnė, Ieva

2015-04-01

The soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) is an index that measures the amount of sodium and potassium adsorbed onto clay and organic matter surfaces, in relation to calcium and magnesium. Assess the potential of soil dispersion or flocculation, a process which has implication in soil hydraulic properties and erosion (Sarah, 2004). Depending on severity and the type of ash produced, fire can changes in the immediate period the soil nutrient status (Bodi et al. 2014). Ash releases onto soil surface a large amount of cations, due the high pH. Previous works showed that SPAR from ash slurries is higher than solutions produced from litter (Pereira et al., 2014a). Normally the spatial distribution of topsoil nutrients in the immediate period after the fire is very heterogeneous, due to the different impacts of fire. Thus it is important to identify the most accurate interpolation method in order to identify with better precision the impacts of fire on soil properties. The objective of this work is to test several interpolation methods. The study area is located in near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Four days after the fire it was designed a plot in a burned area with near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Twenty five samples were collected from the topsoil. The SPAR index was calculated according to the formula: (Na++K+)/(Ca2++Mg2+)1/2 (Sarah, 2004). Data followed the normal distribution, thus no transformation was required previous to data modelling. Several well know interpolation models were tested, as Inverse Distance to a Weight (IDW) with the power of 1, 2, 3 and 4, Radial Basis Functions (RBF), Inverse Multiquadratic (IMT), Multilog (MTG), Multiquadratic (MTQ), Natural Cubic Spline (NCS) and Thin Plate Spline (TPS) and Local Polynomial (LP) with the power of 1 and 2 and Ordinary Kriging. The best interpolator was the one which had the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (Pereira et al., 2014b). The

Advancing Usability Evaluation through Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

2005-07-01

This paper introduces a novel augmentation to the current heuristic usability evaluation methodology. The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method was developed for categorizing human performance in nuclear power plants. Despite the specialized use of SPAR-H for safety critical scenarios, the method also holds promise for use in commercial off-the-shelf software usability evaluations. The SPAR-H method shares task analysis underpinnings with human-computer interaction, and it can be easily adapted to incorporate usability heuristics as performance shaping factors. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). This UEP is not a literal probabilitymore » of error but nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. When combined with a consequence matrix for usability errors, this method affords ready prioritization of usability issues.« less

Strain field reconstruction on composite spars based on the identification of equivalent load conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Airoldi, A.; Marelli, L.; Bettini, P.; Sala, G.; Apicella, A.

2017-04-01

Technologies based on optical fibers provide the possibility of installing relatively dense networks of sensors that can perform effective strain sensing functions during the operational life of structures. A contemporary trend is the increasing adoption of composite materials in aerospace constructions, which leads to structural architectures made of large monolithic elements. The paper is aimed at showing the feasibility of a detailed reconstruction of the strain field in a composite spar, which is based on the development of reference finite element models and the identification of load modes, consisting of a parameterized set of forces. The procedure is described and assessed in ideal conditions. Thereafter, a surrogate model is used to obtain realistic representation of the data acquired by the strain sensing system, so that the developed procedure is evaluated considering local effects due to the introduction of loads, significant modelling discrepancy in the development of the reference model and the presence of measurement noise. Results show that the method can obtain a robust and quite detailed reconstruction of strain fields, even at the level of local distributions, of the internal forces in the spars and of the displacements, by identifying an equivalent set of load parameters. Finally, the trade-off between the number of sensor and the accuracy, and the optimal position of the sensors for a given maximum number of sensors is evaluated by performing a multi-objective optimization, thus showing that even a relative dense network of externally applied sensors can be used to achieve good quality results.

East Spar development: NCC buoy--The vertical submarine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyle, E.C.

1998-02-01

The remote East Spar gas/condensate field has been developed using a subsea production system operated by an unmanned navigation, communication, and control (NCC) buoy. The use of this type of system allows control of the field from any convenient location, with the command-response time and the cost of the facility almost completely independent of the distance to the shore or host facility. Successes during the project (such as using model tests to prove the concept and using a tension-leg mooring system to reduce the motion response of the buoy) are discussed and compared to failures, like the weight and sizemore » growth of the structure, caused as the design requirements were finalized and external factors changed. The operation and layout of this facility is summarized, showing why it was described as a vertical submarine. Conclusions are drawn about the use of an NCC buoy to develop this field, showing that the main objectives have been achieved. The limited operating experience to date is also considered in the review of the design objectives. The paper concludes with the possibilities for the future of this type of concept.« less

Efficient and reproducible in vitro regeneration of Solanum lycopersicum and assessment genetic uniformity using flow cytometry and SPAR methods.

PubMed

Alatar, Abdulrahman A; Faisal, Mohammad; Abdel-Salam, Eslam M; Canto, Tomas; Saquib, Quaiser; Javed, Saad B; El-Sheikh, Mohamed A; Al-Khedhairy, Abdulaziz A

2017-09-01

In the present study, we develop an efficient and reproducible in vitro regeneration system for two cultivars viz. , Jamila and Tomaland of Solanum lycopersicum L., an economically important vegetable crop throughout the world. Sterilization of seeds with 2.5% (v/v) NaOCl was found to be most effective, about 97% of seeds germinated on cotton in magenta box moistened with sterile half strength (½)Murashige and Skoog (MS) medium. Regeneration efficiency of cotyledonary leaf (CL) and cotyledonary node (CN) explants derived from 08 days old aseptic seedling were assessed on MS medium supplemented with different concentrations of auxins and cytokinin. CL explants were found more responsive in comparison to CN in both the cultivars. Types of basal media were also assessed and found to have a significant effect on shoot regeneration. Highest regeneration frequency and maximum number of shoots were standardized from CL explants on MS medium supplied with 6-benzyl adenine (BA; 5.0 µM), indole-3-butyric acid (IBA; 2.5 µM) and Kinetin (Kin; 10.0 µM). In vitro regenerated microshoots were rooted on ½MS medium containing 0.5 µM indole-3-butyric acid (IBA). Regenerated plantlets with well-developed roots and shoot system were successfully acclimated to ex vitro condition. Genetic uniformity of tissue culture raised plantlets was first time evaluated using flow cytometry and single primer amplification reaction (SPAR) methods viz ., DAMD and ISSR. No significant changes in ploidy level and nuclear DNA content profile were observed between in vitro propagated plants and normal plants of both the cultivars. Similarly, the SPAR analysis also revealed monomorphic banding patterns in regenerated plantlets of S. lycopersicum verifying their genetic uniformity and clonal fidelity. This efficient regeneration system can be used as a fast and reproducible method for genetic transformation of this important vegetable crop.

Mixed siliciclastic and carbonate sedimentation within Spar Mountain Member of Ste. Genevieve Limestone, Hamilton County, Illinois

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, M.J.; Pryor, W.A.

1985-02-01

The Spar Mountain Member of the Ste. Genevieve Limestone (middle Mississippian) in Hamilton County, Illinois, consists of 40-60 ft (12-18 m) of interbedded limestones, shales, and sandstones. Five cores and 1400 electric logs were used to delineate two shallowing-upward carbonate cycles and 2 major clastic pulses within the Spar Mountain. Eight lithofacies representing 6 depositional environments were identified. They are: (A) echinoderm-brachiopod dolostone to packstone (outer ramp), (B) ooid-peloidal grainstone (intermediate ramp), (C) skeletal grainstone (intermediate ramp), (D) ooid-molluscan-intraclastic wackestone to grainstone (inner ramp), (E) pelletal-skeletal wackestone (inner ramp), (F) quartzarenite (channelized nearshore), (G) quartz-sublithic arenite to wacke (delta platform),more » and (H) quartz mudstone (prodelta, delta platform). Deposition occurred on a southwest-dipping carbonate ramp, with siliciclastic sediments originating from the northeast. The sequence of facies and their inferred depositional environments record 2 major progradational episodes. Oolitic facies are interpreted to be of tidal-bar belt origin and quartzarenite facies are interpreted to be of delta-distributary channel origin. Their distribution is partially controlled by antecedent and syndepositional topography. Many of these paleotopographic highes are positive features today and yield pinch-out stratigraphic relationships. Paleogeographic reconstructions demonstrate that the primary control on facies distribution was the position of the delta proper along strike. However, depositional topography also influenced sedimentation, particularly in the sand-sized fraction. Using this concept, better prediction of underlying porous buildups (ooid shoals) is possible if thickness of the overlying siliciclastic is known. Within buildups, a complex diagenetic history complicates the distribution of porosity.« less

Finite-element reentry heat-transfer analysis of space shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, William L.; Quinn, Robert D.; Gong, Leslie

1986-01-01

A structural performance and resizing (SPAR) finite-element thermal analysis computer program was used in the heat-transfer analysis of the space shuttle orbiter subjected to reentry aerodynamic heating. Three wing cross sections and one midfuselage cross section were selected for the thermal analysis. The predicted thermal protection system temperatures were found to agree well with flight-measured temperatures. The calculated aluminum structural temperatures also agreed reasonably well with the flight data from reentry to touchdown. The effects of internal radiation and of internal convection were found to be significant. The SPAR finite-element solutions agreed reasonably well with those obtained from the conventional finite-difference method.

SPAR reference manual update SPAR level 15

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whetstone, W. D.

1980-01-01

Command runstream elements are presented for analyzing structural systems that are composed of a number of cyclically symmetrical sectors. Provisions are included for systems in which each cyclically symmetrical sector also possesses a plane of reflective symmetry. The following types of analysis may be performed: static analysis with and without preload, vibrational analysis with and without preload, and buckling analysis with and without preload.

Efficient preliminary floating offshore wind turbine design and testing methodologies and application to a concrete spar design.

PubMed

Matha, Denis; Sandner, Frank; Molins, Climent; Campos, Alexis; Cheng, Po Wen

2015-02-28

The current key challenge in the floating offshore wind turbine industry and research is on designing economic floating systems that can compete with fixed-bottom offshore turbines in terms of levelized cost of energy. The preliminary platform design, as well as early experimental design assessments, are critical elements in the overall design process. In this contribution, a brief review of current floating offshore wind turbine platform pre-design and scaled testing methodologies is provided, with a focus on their ability to accommodate the coupled dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind systems. The exemplary design and testing methodology for a monolithic concrete spar platform as performed within the European KIC AFOSP project is presented. Results from the experimental tests compared to numerical simulations are presented and analysed and show very good agreement for relevant basic dynamic platform properties. Extreme and fatigue loads and cost analysis of the AFOSP system confirm the viability of the presented design process. In summary, the exemplary application of the reduced design and testing methodology for AFOSP confirms that it represents a viable procedure during pre-design of floating offshore wind turbine platforms. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Efficient preliminary floating offshore wind turbine design and testing methodologies and application to a concrete spar design

PubMed Central

Matha, Denis; Sandner, Frank; Molins, Climent; Campos, Alexis; Cheng, Po Wen

2015-01-01

The current key challenge in the floating offshore wind turbine industry and research is on designing economic floating systems that can compete with fixed-bottom offshore turbines in terms of levelized cost of energy. The preliminary platform design, as well as early experimental design assessments, are critical elements in the overall design process. In this contribution, a brief review of current floating offshore wind turbine platform pre-design and scaled testing methodologies is provided, with a focus on their ability to accommodate the coupled dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind systems. The exemplary design and testing methodology for a monolithic concrete spar platform as performed within the European KIC AFOSP project is presented. Results from the experimental tests compared to numerical simulations are presented and analysed and show very good agreement for relevant basic dynamic platform properties. Extreme and fatigue loads and cost analysis of the AFOSP system confirm the viability of the presented design process. In summary, the exemplary application of the reduced design and testing methodology for AFOSP confirms that it represents a viable procedure during pre-design of floating offshore wind turbine platforms. PMID:25583870

Instrumented sparring vest to aid in martial arts scoring.

PubMed

Harrigan, Katie; Logan, Rachel; Sluti, Anne; Rogge, Renee

2006-01-01

Competitors in certain martial arts, such as Taekwondo, are required to wear protective vests during competition. This article outlines the design and fabrication of an instrumented martial arts sparring vest that will aid in martial arts scoring, which is currently a work in progress. After fabrication, this instrumented vest and associated system will not only provide the same protection as before modification, but will also report the location and force magnitude of strikes applied to the vest. This will aid in scoring of martial arts competitions, as it will determine if a strike is forceful enough to be considered deliberate and therefore is a valid point-scoring strike. This will make scoring of competitions unbiased and equal for all competitors, something that is difficult to achieve based solely on a judge's assessment by observation. The system will also indicate the probable injury resulting from a strike, for example, no injury, bruising or bone fracture. If a competitor's strike force is excessive and serious injury could result, the system will indicate this so action can be taken, such as penalty or disqualification of a competitor. Both tissue testing and force testing will be conducted prior to vest fabrication to determine estimates of forces that will damage tissue and typical forces experienced during competition. After testing is complete, the system will be fabricated and the testing results will be implemented into the associated software.

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF), United Space Alliance technicians replace the attachment points for the spars on the interior of a wing of Space Shuttle Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation. The next launch of Atlantis will be on mission STS-114, a utilization and logistics flight to the International Space Station.

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-09-03

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF), United Space Alliance technicians replace the attachment points for the spars on the interior of a wing of Space Shuttle Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation. The next launch of Atlantis will be on mission STS-114, a utilization and logistics flight to the International Space Station.

Dynamic Performance Investigation of A Spar-Type Floating Wind Turbine Under Different Sea Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Han; Hu, Zhi-qiang; Meng, Xiang-yin

2018-06-01

Both numerical calculation and model test are important techniques to study and forecast the dynamic responses of the floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT). However, both the methods have their own limitations at present. In this study, the dynamic responses of a 5 MW OC3 spar-type floating wind turbine designed for a water depth of 200 m are numerically investigated and validated by a 1:50 scaled model test. Moreover, the discrepancies between the numerical calculations and model tests are obtained and discussed. According to the discussions, it is found that the surge and pitch are coupled with the mooring tensions, but the heave is independent of them. Surge and pitch are mainly induced by wave under wind wave conditions. Wind and current will induce the low-frequency average responses, while wave will induce the fluctuation ranges of the responses. In addition, wave will induce the wavefrequency responses but wind and current will restrain the ranges of the responses.

Human Error Analysis in a Permit to Work System: A Case Study in a Chemical Plant

PubMed Central

Jahangiri, Mehdi; Hoboubi, Naser; Rostamabadi, Akbar; Keshavarzi, Sareh; Hosseini, Ali Akbar

2015-01-01

Background A permit to work (PTW) is a formal written system to control certain types of work which are identified as potentially hazardous. However, human error in PTW processes can lead to an accident. Methods This cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted to estimate the probability of human errors in PTW processes in a chemical plant in Iran. In the first stage, through interviewing the personnel and studying the procedure in the plant, the PTW process was analyzed using the hierarchical task analysis technique. In doing so, PTW was considered as a goal and detailed tasks to achieve the goal were analyzed. In the next step, the standardized plant analysis risk-human (SPAR-H) reliability analysis method was applied for estimation of human error probability. Results The mean probability of human error in the PTW system was estimated to be 0.11. The highest probability of human error in the PTW process was related to flammable gas testing (50.7%). Conclusion The SPAR-H method applied in this study could analyze and quantify the potential human errors and extract the required measures for reducing the error probabilities in PTW system. Some suggestions to reduce the likelihood of errors, especially in the field of modifying the performance shaping factors and dependencies among tasks are provided. PMID:27014485

NASA Hubble Sees Sparring Antennae Galaxies

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-11-15

The NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope has snapped the best ever image of the Antennae Galaxies. Hubble has released images of these stunning galaxies twice before, once using observations from its Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) in 1997, and again in 2006 from the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS). Each of Hubble’s images of the Antennae Galaxies has been better than the last, due to upgrades made during the famous servicing missions, the last of which took place in 2009. The galaxies — also known as NGC 4038 and NGC 4039 — are locked in a deadly embrace. Once normal, sedate spiral galaxies like the Milky Way, the pair have spent the past few hundred million years sparring with one another. This clash is so violent that stars have been ripped from their host galaxies to form a streaming arc between the two. In wide-field images of the pair the reason for their name becomes clear — far-flung stars and streamers of gas stretch out into space, creating long tidal tails reminiscent of antennae. This new image of the Antennae Galaxies shows obvious signs of chaos. Clouds of gas are seen in bright pink and red, surrounding the bright flashes of blue star-forming regions — some of which are partially obscured by dark patches of dust. The rate of star formation is so high that the Antennae Galaxies are said to be in a state of starburst, a period in which all of the gas within the galaxies is being used to form stars. This cannot last forever and neither can the separate galaxies; eventually the nuclei will coalesce, and the galaxies will begin their retirement together as one large elliptical galaxy. This image uses visible and near-infrared observations from Hubble’s Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3), along with some of the previously-released observations from Hubble’s Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS). Credit: NASA/European Space Agency NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors

Performance of a steel spar wind turbine blade on the Mod-0 100 kW experimental wind turbine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keith, T. G., Jr.; Sullivan, T. L.; Viterna, L. A.

1980-01-01

The performance and loading of a large wind rotor, 38.4 m in diameter and composed of two low-cost steel spar blades were examined. Two blades were fabricated at Lewis Research Center and successfully operated on the Mod-0 wind turbine at Plum Brook. The blades were operated on a tower on which the natural bending frequency were altered by placing the tower on a leaf-spring apparatus. It was found that neither blade performance nor loading were affected significantly by this tower softening technique. Rotor performance exceeded prediction while blade loads were found to be in reasonable agreement with those predicted. Seventy-five hours of operation over a five month period resulted in no deterioration in the blade.

Introduction to the computational structural mechanics testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lotts, C. G.; Greene, W. H.; Mccleary, S. L.; Knight, N. F., Jr.; Paulson, S. S.; Gillian, R. E.

1987-01-01

The Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM) testbed software system based on the SPAR finite element code and the NICE system is described. This software is denoted NICE/SPAR. NICE was developed at Lockheed Palo Alto Research Laboratory and contains data management utilities, a command language interpreter, and a command language definition for integrating engineering computational modules. SPAR is a system of programs used for finite element structural analysis developed for NASA by Lockheed and Engineering Information Systems, Inc. It includes many complementary structural analysis, thermal analysis, utility functions which communicate through a common database. The work on NICE/SPAR was motivated by requirements for a highly modular and flexible structural analysis system to use as a tool in carrying out research in computational methods and exploring computer hardware. Analysis examples are presented which demonstrate the benefits gained from a combination of the NICE command language with a SPAR computational modules.

Implementation of structural response sensitivity calculations in a large-scale finite-element analysis system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giles, G. L.; Rogers, J. L., Jr.

1982-01-01

The methodology used to implement structural sensitivity calculations into a major, general-purpose finite-element analysis system (SPAR) is described. This implementation includes a generalized method for specifying element cross-sectional dimensions as design variables that can be used in analytically calculating derivatives of output quantities from static stress, vibration, and buckling analyses for both membrane and bending elements. Limited sample results for static displacements and stresses are presented to indicate the advantages of analytically calculating response derivatives compared to finite difference methods. Continuing developments to implement these procedures into an enhanced version of SPAR are also discussed.

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF), a United Space Alliance technician examines the attachment points for the spars on the exterior of a wing of Space Shuttle Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation. The next launch of Atlantis will be on mission STS-114, a utilization and logistics flight to the International Space Station.

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-09-03

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF), a United Space Alliance technician examines the attachment points for the spars on the exterior of a wing of Space Shuttle Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation. The next launch of Atlantis will be on mission STS-114, a utilization and logistics flight to the International Space Station.

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -In the Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF), a United Space Alliance technician examines the attachment points for the spars on the exterior of a wing of Space Shuttle Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation. The next launch of Atlantis will be on mission STS-114, a utilization and logistics flight to the International Space Station.

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-09-03

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -In the Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF), a United Space Alliance technician examines the attachment points for the spars on the exterior of a wing of Space Shuttle Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation. The next launch of Atlantis will be on mission STS-114, a utilization and logistics flight to the International Space Station.

FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

100-kW hingeless metal wind turbine blade design, analysis and fabrication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donham, R. E.; Schmidt, J.; Linscott, B. S.

1975-01-01

The design, fabrication and analysis of aluminum wind turbine rotor blades is discussed. The blades are designed to meet criteria established for a 100-kilowatt wind turbine generator operating between 8 and 60-mile-per-hour speeds at 40 revolutions per minute. The design wind speed is 18 miles per hour. Two rotor blades are used on a new facility which includes a hingeless hub and its shaft, gearbox, generator and tower. Experience shows that, for stopped rotors, safe wind speeds are strongly dependent on blade torsional and bending rigidities which the basic D spar structural blade design provides. The 0.25-inch-thick nose skin is brake/bump formed to provide the basic 'D' spar structure for the tapered, twisted blades. Adequate margins for flutter and divergence are predicted from the use of existing, correlated stopped rotor and helicopter rotor analysis programs.

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Youth Participation and Injury Risk in Martial Arts.

PubMed

Demorest, Rebecca A; Koutures, Chris

2016-12-01

The martial arts can provide children and adolescents with vigorous levels of physical exercise that can improve overall physical fitness. The various types of martial arts encompass noncontact basic forms and techniques that may have a lower relative risk of injury. Contact-based sparring with competitive training and bouts have a higher risk of injury. This clinical report describes important techniques and movement patterns in several types of martial arts and reviews frequently reported injuries encountered in each discipline, with focused discussions of higher risk activities. Some of these higher risk activities include blows to the head and choking or submission movements that may cause concussions or significant head injuries. The roles of rule changes, documented benefits of protective equipment, and changes in training recommendations in attempts to reduce injury are critically assessed. This information is intended to help pediatric health care providers counsel patients and families in encouraging safe participation in martial arts. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Transient thermal analysis of a titanium multiwall thermal protection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blosser, M. L.

1982-01-01

The application of the SPAR thermal analyzer to the thermal analysis of a thermal protection system concept is discussed. The titanium multiwall thermal protection system concept consists of alternate flat and dimpled sheets which are joined together at the crests of the dimples and formed into 30 cm by 30 cm (12 in. by 12 in.) tiles. The tiles are mechanically attached to the structure. The complex tile geometry complicates thermal analysis. Three modes of heat transfer were considered: conduction through the gas inside the tile, conduction through the metal, and radiation between the various layers. The voids between the dimpled and flat sheets were designed to be small enough so that natural convection is insignificant (e.g., Grashof number 1000). A two step approach was used in the thermal analysis of the multiwall thermal protection system. First, an effective normal (through-the-thickness) thermal conductivity was obtained from a steady state analysis using a detailed SPAR finite element model of a small symmetric section of the multiwall tile. This effective conductivity was then used in simple one dimensional finite element models for preliminary analysis of several transient heat transfer problems.

A procedure for analysis of guyline tension.

Treesearch

Ward W. Carson; Jens E. Jorgensen; Stephen E. Reutebuch; William J. Bramwell

1982-01-01

Most cable logging operations use a spar held in place near the landing by a system of guylines and anchors. Safety and economic considerations require that overloads be avoided and that the spar remain stable. This paper presents a procedure and a computer program to estimate the guyline and anchor loads on a particular system configuration by a specific set of...

78 FR 40069 - Airworthiness Directives; Airbus Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-03

... and an updated fatigue and damage tolerance analysis that the risk for fatigue cracking on the front... and correct fatigue cracks in the bolt holes of the wing spars, which could result in reduced..., between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m., Monday through Friday, except Federal holidays. For service information...

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, Jerry Belt, with United Space Alliance, checks a spar attachment on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis before installing Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels on the wing. The spars - floating joints - reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The gray carbon composite RCC panels have sufficient strength to withstand the aerodynamic forces experienced during launch and reentry, which can reach as high as 800 pounds per square foot. The operating range of RCC is from minus 250º F to about 3,000º F, the temperature produced by friction with the atmosphere during reentry.

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-09-05

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, Jerry Belt, with United Space Alliance, checks a spar attachment on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis before installing Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels on the wing. The spars - floating joints - reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The gray carbon composite RCC panels have sufficient strength to withstand the aerodynamic forces experienced during launch and reentry, which can reach as high as 800 pounds per square foot. The operating range of RCC is from minus 250º F to about 3,000º F, the temperature produced by friction with the atmosphere during reentry.

Ultrasonic guided wave monitoring of composite wing skin-to-spar bonded joints in aerospace structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matt, Howard; Bartoli, Ivan; Lanza di Scalea, Francesco

2005-10-01

The monitoring of adhesively bonded joints by ultrasonic guided waves is the general topic of this paper. Specifically, composite-to-composite joints representative of the wing skin-to-spar bonds of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are examined. This research is the first step towards the development of an on-board structural health monitoring system for UAV wings based on integrated ultrasonic sensors. The study investigates two different lay-ups for the wing skin and two different types of bond defects, namely poorly cured adhesive and disbonded interfaces. The assessment of bond state is based on monitoring the strength of transmission through the joints of selected guided modes. The wave propagation problem is studied numerically by a semi-analytical finite element method that accounts for viscoelastic damping, and experimentally by ultrasonic testing that uses small PZT disks preferably exciting and detecting the single-plate s0 mode. Both the models and the experiments confirm that the ultrasonic energy transmission through the joint is highly dependent on the bond conditions, with defected bonds resulting in increased transmission strength. Large sensitivity to the bond conditions is found at mode coupling points, as a result of the large interlayer energy transfer.

Advanced composite vertical stabilizer for DC-10 transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, C. O.

1978-01-01

The structural design configuration for the Composite Vertical Stabilizer is described and the structural design, analysis, and weight activities are presented. The status of fabrication and test activities for the development test portion of the program is described. Test results are presented for the skin panels, spar web, spar cap to cover, and laminate properties specimens. Engineering drawings of vertification test panels and root fittings, rudder support specimens, titanium fittings, and rear spar specimen analysis models are included.

Is risk analysis scientific?

PubMed

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Analysis of Progressive Collapse of Complex Structures.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

tions of wing spar roots, although developed from experimental measure- ments, did not produce purely rigid body motions for reasons explained in...support structures in the same manner as the wings had been attached to aircraft fuselages. The support structures were extremely rigid compared to the...support structures and pinned into place within small tolerance; however, some motion of the wing spar roots with respect to the supports was

Program risk analysis handbook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batson, R. G.

1987-01-01

NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided.

78 FR 64159 - Airworthiness Directives; Airbus Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-28

... fatigue and damage tolerance analysis indicating a high risk for fatigue cracking on the front and rear spar bottom booms. We are issuing this AD to detect and correct fatigue cracks in the bolt holes of the...; telephone +33 5 61 93 36 96; fax +33 5 61 93 44 51; email [email protected] ; Internet http...

An evaluation of superminicomputers for thermal analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Storaasli, O. O.; Vidal, J. B.; Jones, G. K.

1982-01-01

The use of superminicomputers for solving a series of increasingly complex thermal analysis problems is investigated. The approach involved (1) installation and verification of the SPAR thermal analyzer software on superminicomputers at Langley Research Center and Goddard Space Flight Center, (2) solution of six increasingly complex thermal problems on this equipment, and (3) comparison of solution (accuracy, CPU time, turnaround time, and cost) with solutions on large mainframe computers.

Status of risk-benefit analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Horn, A.J.; Wilson, R.

1976-12-01

The benefits and deficiencies of cost benefit analysis are reviewed. It is pointed out that, if decision making involving risks and benefits is to improve, more attention must be paid to the clear presentation of the assumptions, values, and results. Reports need to present concise summaries which convey the uncertainties and limitations of the analysis in addition to the matrix of costs, risks, and benefits. As the field of risk-benefit analysis advances the estimation of risks and benefits will become more precise and implicit valuations will be made more explicit. Corresponding improvements must also be made to enhance communications betweenmore » the risk-benefit analyst and the accountable decision maker.« less

Efficient Ultra-High Speed Communication with Simultaneous Phase and Amplitude Regenerative Sampling (SPARS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlowitz, Christian; Girg, Thomas; Ghaleb, Hatem; Du, Xuan-Quang

2017-09-01

For ultra-high speed communication systems at high center frequencies above 100 GHz, we propose a disruptive change in system architecture to address major issues regarding amplifier chains with a large number of amplifier stages. They cause a high noise figure and high power consumption when operating close to the frequency limits of the underlying semiconductor technologies. Instead of scaling a classic homodyne transceiver system, we employ repeated amplification in single-stage amplifiers through positive feedback as well as synthesizer-free self-mixing demodulation at the receiver to simplify the system architecture notably. Since the amplitude and phase information for the emerging oscillation is defined by the input signal and the oscillator is only turned on for a very short time, it can be left unstabilized and thus come without a PLL. As soon as gain is no longer the most prominent issue, relaxed requirements for all the other major components allow reconsidering their implementation concepts to achieve further improvements compared to classic systems. This paper provides the first comprehensive overview of all major design aspects that need to be addressed upon realizing a SPARS-based transceiver. At system level, we show how to achieve high data rates and a noise performance comparable to classic systems, backed by scaled demonstrator experiments. Regarding the transmitter, design considerations for efficient quadrature modulation are discussed. For the frontend components that replace PA and LNA amplifier chains, implementation techniques for regenerative sampling circuits based on super-regenerative oscillators are presented. Finally, an analog-to-digital converter with outstanding performance and complete interfaces both to the analog baseband as well as to the digital side completes the set of building blocks for efficient ultra-high speed communication.

BMI Sandwich Wing Box Analysis and Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palm, Tod; Mahler, Mary; Shah, Chandu; Rouse, Marshall; Bush, Harold; Wu, Chauncey; Small, William J.

2000-01-01

A composite sandwich single bay wing box test article was developed by Northrop Grumman and tested recently at NASA Langley Research Center. The objectives for the wing box development effort were to provide a demonstration article for manufacturing scale up of structural concepts related to a high speed transport wing, and to validate the structural performance of the design. The box concept consisted of highly loaded composite sandwich wing skins, with moderately loaded composite sandwich spars. The dimensions of the box were chosen to represent a single bay of the main wing box, with a spar spacing of 30 inches, height of 20 inches constant depth, and length of 64 inches. The bismaleimide facesheet laminates and titanium honeycomb core chosen for this task are high temperature materials able to sustain a 300F service temperature. The completed test article is shown in Figure 1. The tests at NASA Langley demonstrated the structures ability to sustain axial tension and compression loads in excess of 20,000 lb/in, and to maintain integrity in the thermal environment. Test procedures, analysis failure predictions, and test results are presented.

The risk of chronic traumatic brain injury in professional boxing: change in exposure variables over the past century

PubMed Central

Clausen, H; McCrory, P; Anderson, V; Fallon, K

2005-01-01

Objectives: To determine if boxing exposure has changed over time and hence if current professional boxers are at the same risk of developing chronic traumatic brain injury (CTBI) as historical controls. Design: Literature review of published studies and analysis of data of active professional boxers. Subjects: Professional boxers in the United Kingdom and Australia. Main outcome measures: Boxing history and participation in sparring and professional bouts. Results: Since the 1930s, the average duration of a professional boxer's career has dropped from 19 years to five years, and the mean number of career bouts has reduced from 336 to 13. This is despite no significant decline in participation rates from 1931 until 2002. Conclusions: The incidence of boxing related CTBI will diminish in the current era of professional boxing because of the reduction in exposure to repetitive head trauma and increasing medical monitoring of boxers, with preparticipation medical and neuroimaging assessments resulting in the detection of early and potentially pre-symptomatic cases of CTBI. PMID:16118306

The risk of chronic traumatic brain injury in professional boxing: change in exposure variables over the past century.

PubMed

Clausen, H; McCrory, P; Anderson, V

2005-09-01

To determine if boxing exposure has changed over time and hence if current professional boxers are at the same risk of developing chronic traumatic brain injury (CTBI) as historical controls. Literature review of published studies and analysis of data of active professional boxers. Professional boxers in the United Kingdom and Australia. Boxing history and participation in sparring and professional bouts. Since the 1930s, the average duration of a professional boxer's career has dropped from 19 years to five years, and the mean number of career bouts has reduced from 336 to 13. This is despite no significant decline in participation rates from 1931 until 2002. The incidence of boxing related CTBI will diminish in the current era of professional boxing because of the reduction in exposure to repetitive head trauma and increasing medical monitoring of boxers, with preparticipation medical and neuroimaging assessments resulting in the detection of early and potentially pre-symptomatic cases of CTBI.

Development of a thermal and structural model for a NASTRAN finite-element analysis of a hypersonic wing test structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lameris, J.

1984-01-01

The development of a thermal and structural model for a hypersonic wing test structure using the NASTRAN finite-element method as its primary analytical tool is described. A detailed analysis was defined to obtain the temperature and thermal stress distribution in the whole wing as well as the five upper and lower root panels. During the development of the models, it was found that the thermal application of NASTRAN and the VIEW program, used for the generation of the radiation exchange coefficients, were definicent. Although for most of these deficiencies solutions could be found, the existence of one particular deficiency in the current thermal model prevented the final computation of the temperature distributions. A SPAR analysis of a single bay of the wing, using data converted from the original NASTRAN model, indicates that local temperature-time distributions can be obtained with good agreement with the test data. The conversion of the NASTRAN thermal model into a SPAR model is recommended to meet the immediate goal of obtaining an accurate thermal stress distribution.

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.

1997-08-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...

Integrating aerodynamics and structures in the minimum weight design of a supersonic transport wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois M.; Wrenn, Gregory A.; Dovi, Augustine R.; Coen, Peter G.; Hall, Laura E.

1992-01-01

An approach is presented for determining the minimum weight design of aircraft wing models which takes into consideration aerodynamics-structure coupling when calculating both zeroth order information needed for analysis and first order information needed for optimization. When performing sensitivity analysis, coupling is accounted for by using a generalized sensitivity formulation. The results presented show that the aeroelastic effects are calculated properly and noticeably reduce constraint approximation errors. However, for the particular example selected, the error introduced by ignoring aeroelastic effects are not sufficient to significantly affect the convergence of the optimization process. Trade studies are reported that consider different structural materials, internal spar layouts, and panel buckling lengths. For the formulation, model and materials used in this study, an advanced aluminum material produced the lightest design while satisfying the problem constraints. Also, shorter panel buckling lengths resulted in lower weights by permitting smaller panel thicknesses and generally, by unloading the wing skins and loading the spar caps. Finally, straight spars required slightly lower wing weights than angled spars.

First regulatory inspections measuring adherence to Good Pharmacy Practices in the public sector in Uganda: a cross-sectional comparison of performance between supervised and unsupervised facilities.

PubMed

Trap, Birna; Kikule, Kate; Vialle-Valentin, Catherine; Musoke, Richard; Lajul, Grace Otto; Hoppenworth, Kim; Konradsen, Dorthe

2016-01-01

Since its inception, the Uganda National Drug Authority (NDA) has regularly inspected private sector pharmacies to monitor adherence to Good Pharmacy Practices (GPP). This study reports findings from the first public facility inspections following an intervention (SPARS: Supervision, Performance Assessment, and Recognition Strategy) to build GPP and medicines management capacity in the public sector. The study includes 455 public facilities: 417 facilities were inspected after at least four SPARS visits by trained managerial district staff (SPARS group), 38 before any exposure to SPARS. NDA inspectors measured 10 critical, 20 major, and 37 minor GPP indicators in every facility and only accredited facilities that passed all 10 critical and failed no more than 7 major indicators. Lack of compliance for a given indicator was defined as less than 75 % facilities passing that indicator. We assessed factors associated with certification using logistic regression analysis and compared number of failed indicators between the SPARS and comparative groups using two sample t-tests with equal or unequal variance. 57.4 % of inspected facilities obtained GPP certification: 57.1 % in the SPARS and 60.5 % in the comparative group (Adj. OR = 0.91, 95 % CI 0.45-1.85, p = 0.802). Overall, facilities failed an average of 10 indicators. SPARS facilities performed better than comparative facilities (9 (SD 6.1) vs. 13 (SD 7.7) failed indicators respectively; p = 0.017), and SPARS supported facilities scored better on indicators covered by SPARS. For all indicators but one minor, performance in the SPARS group was equal to or significantly better than in unsupervised facilities. Within the SPARS (intervention) group, certified facilities had < 75 % compliance on 7 indicators (all minor), and uncertified facilities on 19 (4 critical, 2 major, and 13 minor) indicators. Half of the Ugandan population obtains medicines from the public sector. Yet, we found only 3/5 of

A concept analysis of forensic risk.

PubMed

Kettles, A M

2004-08-01

Forensic risk is a term used in relation to many forms of clinical practice, such as assessment, intervention and management. Rarely is the term defined in the literature and as a concept it is multifaceted. Concept analysis is a method for exploring and evaluating the meaning of words. It gives precise definitions, both theoretical and operational, for use in theory, clinical practice and research. A concept analysis provides a logical basis for defining terms through providing defining attributes, case examples (model, contrary, borderline, related), antecedents and consequences and the implications for nursing. Concept analysis helps us to refine and define a concept that derives from practice, research or theory. This paper will use the strategy of concept analysis to find a working definition for the concept of forensic risk. In conclusion, the historical background and literature are reviewed using concept analysis to bring the term into focus and to define it more clearly. Forensic risk is found to derive both from forensic practice and from risk theory. A proposed definition of forensic risk is given.

Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

2017-04-01

Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

PubMed

Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal

2018-02-01

Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Bridging the two cultures of risk analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jasanoff, S.

1993-04-01

During the past 15 years, risk analysis has come of age as an interdisciplinary field of remarkable breadth, nurturing connections among fields as diverse as mathematics, biostatistics, toxicology, and engineering on one hand, and law, psychology, sociology, and economics on the other hand. In this editorial, the author addresses the question: What has the presence of social scientists in the network meant to the substantive development of the field of risk analysis The answers offered here discuss the substantial progress in bridging the two cultures of risk analysis. Emphasis is made of the continual need for monitoring risk analysis. Topicsmore » include: the micro-worlds of risk assessment; constraining assumptions; and exchange programs. 14 refs.« less

Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chueng, Kar-Ming

2008-01-01

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a risk management approach that allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainties, and to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Demonstrate a planning and risk analysis framework that tightly integrates mathematical optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to solve complex problems.

Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

PubMed

Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

2017-08-01

With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications.

PubMed

Aven, Terje

2018-05-01

To solve real-life problems-such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change-and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk analysis of computer system designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vallone, A.

1981-01-01

Adverse events during implementation can affect final capabilities, schedule and cost of a computer system even though the system was accurately designed and evaluated. Risk analysis enables the manager to forecast the impact of those events and to timely ask for design revisions or contingency plans before making any decision. This paper presents a structured procedure for an effective risk analysis. The procedure identifies the required activities, separates subjective assessments from objective evaluations, and defines a risk measure to determine the analysis results. The procedure is consistent with the system design evaluation and enables a meaningful comparison among alternative designs.

ITS risk analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-06-01

Risk analysis plays a key role in the implementation of an architecture. Early definition of the situations, processes, or events that have the potential for impeding the implementation of key elements of the ITS National Architecture is a critical e...

76 FR 64038 - Airworthiness Directives; CPAC, Inc. Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-17

... airplane in the elevator spar area or that could have affected the elevator spar. (5) Type of operation... elevator spar for cracks and, if any crack is found, either replace with a serviceable elevator spar that is found free of cracks or repair/modify the elevator spar with an FAA-approved method. That AD also...

14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

Extractive waste management: A risk analysis approach.

PubMed

Mehta, Neha; Dino, Giovanna Antonella; Ajmone-Marsan, Franco; Lasagna, Manuela; Romè, Chiara; De Luca, Domenico Antonio

2018-05-01

Abandoned mine sites continue to present serious environmental hazards because the heavy metals associated with extractive waste are continuously released into the environment, where they threaten human life and the environment. Remediating and securing extractive waste are complex, lengthy and costly processes. Thus, in most European countries, a site is considered for intervention when it poses a risk to human health and the surrounding environment. As a consequence, risk analysis presents a viable decisional approach towards the management of extractive waste. To evaluate the effects posed by extractive waste to human health and groundwater, a risk analysis approach was used for an abandoned nickel extraction site in Campello Monti in North Italy. This site is located in the Southern Italian Alps. The area consists of large and voluminous mafic rocks intruded by mantle peridotite. The mining activities in this area have generated extractive waste. A risk analysis of the site was performed using Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) guidelines, considering the properties of extractive waste and water for the properties of environmental matrices. The results showed the presence of carcinogenic risk due to arsenic and risks to groundwater due to nickel. The results of the risk analysis form a basic understanding of the current situation at the site, which is affected by extractive waste. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

PubMed

Hansson, Sven Ove

2018-02-26

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

TITLE: Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Fengshan Liu...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations 5b. GRANT NUMBER...identifying the prevalence of women with incomplete visualization of the breast . We developed a code to estimate the breast cancer risks using the

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis,more » and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.« less

Risk-Stratified Imputation in Survival Analysis

PubMed Central

Kennedy, Richard E.; Adragni, Kofi P.; Tiwari, Hemant K.; Voeks, Jenifer H.; Brott, Thomas G.; Howard, George

2013-01-01

Background Censoring that is dependent on covariates associated with survival can arise in randomized trials due to changes in recruitment and eligibility criteria to minimize withdrawals, potentially leading to biased treatment effect estimates. Imputation approaches have been proposed to address censoring in survival analysis; and while these approaches may provide unbiased estimates of treatment effects, imputation of a large number of outcomes may over- or underestimate the associated variance based on the imputation pool selected. Purpose We propose an improved method, risk-stratified imputation, as an alternative to address withdrawal related to the risk of events in the context of time-to-event analyses. Methods Our algorithm performs imputation from a pool of replacement subjects with similar values of both treatment and covariate(s) of interest, that is, from a risk-stratified sample. This stratification prior to imputation addresses the requirement of time-to-event analysis that censored observations are representative of all other observations in the risk group with similar exposure variables. We compared our risk-stratified imputation to case deletion and bootstrap imputation in a simulated dataset in which the covariate of interest (study withdrawal) was related to treatment. A motivating example from a recent clinical trial is also presented to demonstrate the utility of our method. Results In our simulations, risk-stratified imputation gives estimates of treatment effect comparable to bootstrap and auxiliary variable imputation while avoiding inaccuracies of the latter two in estimating the associated variance. Similar results were obtained in analysis of clinical trial data. Limitations Risk-stratified imputation has little advantage over other imputation methods when covariates of interest are not related to treatment, although its performance is superior when covariates are related to treatment. Risk-stratified imputation is intended for

Finite element simulation of core inspection in helicopter rotor blades using guided waves.

PubMed

Chakrapani, Sunil Kishore; Barnard, Daniel; Dayal, Vinay

2015-09-01

This paper extends the work presented earlier on inspection of helicopter rotor blades using guided Lamb modes by focusing on inspecting the spar-core bond. In particular, this research focuses on structures which employ high stiffness, high density core materials. Wave propagation in such structures deviate from the generic Lamb wave propagation in sandwich panels. To understand the various mode conversions, finite element models of a generalized helicopter rotor blade were created and subjected to transient analysis using a commercial finite element code; ANSYS. Numerical simulations showed that a Lamb wave excited in the spar section of the blade gets converted into Rayleigh wave which travels across the spar-core section and mode converts back into Lamb wave. Dispersion of Rayleigh waves in multi-layered half-space was also explored. Damage was modeled in the form of a notch in the core section to simulate a cracked core, and delamination was modeled between the spar and core material to simulate spar-core disbond. Mode conversions under these damaged conditions were examined numerically. The numerical models help in assessing the difficulty of using nondestructive evaluation for complex structures and also highlight the physics behind the mode conversions which occur at various discontinuities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

2009-04-01

Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

PubMed

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-12-01

Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

PubMed

Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

2013-01-01

When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

2009-04-01

Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

Constant lift rotor for a heavier than air craft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stroub, R. H. (Inventor)

1979-01-01

A rotor blade extended radially from a hub, characterized by an elongated spar and a plurality of axially aligned shells pivotally mounted on the spar is presented. Each has an aerodynamic center located in trailing relation with the spar and supported thereby for simultaneous axial and angular displacement as centrifugal forces are applied, a pitch controller plus a plurality of pivotal pitch limiting arms transversely related to the spar. A push-pull link interconnecting the arms is used for imparting simultaneous pivotal motion, whereby the angular relationship of the arms to the spar is varied for varying the motion of the trucks along the arms for thus limiting the pitch of the segments about the spar.

Exploratory data analysis of acceleration signals to select light-weight and accurate features for real-time activity recognition on smartphones.

PubMed

Khan, Adil Mehmood; Siddiqi, Muhammad Hameed; Lee, Seok-Won

2013-09-27

Smartphone-based activity recognition (SP-AR) recognizes users' activities using the embedded accelerometer sensor. Only a small number of previous works can be classified as online systems, i.e., the whole process (pre-processing, feature extraction, and classification) is performed on the device. Most of these online systems use either a high sampling rate (SR) or long data-window (DW) to achieve high accuracy, resulting in short battery life or delayed system response, respectively. This paper introduces a real-time/online SP-AR system that solves this problem. Exploratory data analysis was performed on acceleration signals of 6 activities, collected from 30 subjects, to show that these signals are generated by an autoregressive (AR) process, and an accurate AR-model in this case can be built using a low SR (20 Hz) and a small DW (3 s). The high within class variance resulting from placing the phone at different positions was reduced using kernel discriminant analysis to achieve position-independent recognition. Neural networks were used as classifiers. Unlike previous works, true subject-independent evaluation was performed, where 10 new subjects evaluated the system at their homes for 1 week. The results show that our features outperformed three commonly used features by 40% in terms of accuracy for the given SR and DW.

Multiple piece turbine rotor blade

DOEpatents

Jones, Russell B; Fedock, John A

2013-05-21

A multiple piece turbine rotor blade with a shell having an airfoil shape and secured between a spar and a platform with the spar including a tip end piece. a snap ring fits around the spar and abuts against the spar tip end piece on a top side and abuts against a shell on the bottom side so that the centrifugal loads from the shell is passed through the snap ring and into the spar and not through a tip cap dovetail slot and projection structure.

CUMULATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative Risk Analysis for Organophosphorus Pesticides
R. Woodrow Setzer, Jr. NHEERL MD-74, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711

The US EPA has recently completed a risk assessment of the effects of exposure to 33 organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) through the diet, water, and resi...

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Multiple piece turbine rotor blade

DOEpatents

Kimmel, Keith D.; Plank, William L.

2016-07-19

A spar and shell turbine rotor blade with a spar and a tip cap formed as a single piece, the spar includes a bottom end with dovetail or fir tree slots that engage with slots on a top end of a root section, and a platform includes an opening on a top surface for insertion of the spar in which a shell made from an exotic high temperature resistant material is secured between the tip cap and the platform. The spar is tapered to form thinner walls at the tip end to further reduce the weight and therefore a pulling force due to blade rotation. The spar and tip cap piece is made from a NiAL material to further reduce the weight and the pulling force.

Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

2011-12-01

Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability

Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

PubMed

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

PubMed

Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

2015-09-01

We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

PubMed

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Modeling Opponents in Adversarial Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Rios Insua, David; Banks, David; Rios, Jesus

2016-04-01

Adversarial risk analysis has been introduced as a framework to deal with risks derived from intentional actions of adversaries. The analysis supports one of the decisionmakers, who must forecast the actions of the other agents. Typically, this forecast must take account of random consequences resulting from the set of selected actions. The solution requires one to model the behavior of the opponents, which entails strategic thinking. The supported agent may face different kinds of opponents, who may use different rationality paradigms, for example, the opponent may behave randomly, or seek a Nash equilibrium, or perform level-k thinking, or use mirroring, or employ prospect theory, among many other possibilities. We describe the appropriate analysis for these situations, and also show how to model the uncertainty about the rationality paradigm used by the opponent through a Bayesian model averaging approach, enabling a fully decision-theoretic solution. We also show how as we observe an opponent's decision behavior, this approach allows learning about the validity of each of the rationality models used to predict his decision by computing the models' (posterior) probabilities, which can be understood as a measure of their validity. We focus on simultaneous decision making by two agents. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis

PubMed Central

Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David

2014-01-01

Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about

Impact of model-based risk analysis for liver surgery planning.

PubMed

Hansen, C; Zidowitz, S; Preim, B; Stavrou, G; Oldhafer, K J; Hahn, H K

2014-05-01

A model-based risk analysis for oncologic liver surgery was described in previous work (Preim et al. in Proceedings of international symposium on computer assisted radiology and surgery (CARS), Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 353–358, 2002; Hansen et al. Int I Comput Assist Radiol Surg 4(5):469–474, 2009). In this paper, we present an evaluation of this method. To prove whether and how the risk analysis facilitates the process of liver surgery planning, an explorative user study with 10 liver experts was conducted. The purpose was to compare and analyze their decision-making. The results of the study show that model-based risk analysis enhances the awareness of surgical risk in the planning stage. Participants preferred smaller resection volumes and agreed more on the safety margins’ width in case the risk analysis was available. In addition, time to complete the planning task and confidence of participants were not increased when using the risk analysis. This work shows that the applied model-based risk analysis may influence important planning decisions in liver surgery. It lays a basis for further clinical evaluations and points out important fields for future research.

Coffee consumption and risk of fractures: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, Huifang; Yao, Ke; Zhang, Wenjie; Zhou, Jun; Wu, Taixiang

2012-01-01

Introduction Recent studies have indicated higher risk of fractures among coffee drinkers. To quantitatively assess the association between coffee consumption and the risk of fractures, we conducted this meta-analysis. Material and methods We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for prospective studies reporting the risk of fractures with coffee consumption. Quality of included studies was assessed with the Newcastle Ottawa scale. We conducted a meta-analysis and a cumulative meta-analysis of relative risk (RR) for an increment of one cup of coffee per day, and explored the potential dose-response relationship. Sensitivity analysis was performed where statistical heterogeneity existed. Results We included 10 prospective studies covering 214,059 participants and 9,597 cases. There was overall 3.5% higher fracture risk for an increment of one cup of coffee per day (RR = 1.035, 95% CI: 1.019-1.052). Pooled RRs were 1.049 (95% CI: 1.022-1.077) for women and 0.910 (95% CI: 0.873-0.949) for men. Among women, RR was 1.055 (95% CI: 0.999-1.114) for younger participants, and 1.047 (95% CI: 1.016-1.080) for older ones. Cumulative meta-analysis indicated that risk estimates reached a stabilization level (RR = 1.035, 95% CI: 1.019-1.052), and it revealed a positive dose-response relationship between coffee consumption and risk of fractures either for men and women combined or women specifically. Conclusions This meta-analysis suggests an overall harm of coffee intake in increasing the risk of fractures, especially for women. But current data are insufficient to reach a convincing conclusion and further research needs to be conducted. PMID:23185185

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Methods for In-Flight Wing Shape Predictions of Highly Flexible Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Formulation of Ko Displacement Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, William L.; Fleischer, Van Tran

2010-01-01

The Ko displacement theory is formulated for a cantilever tubular wing spar under bending, torsion, and combined bending and torsion loading. The Ko displacement equations are expressed in terms of strains measured at multiple sensing stations equally spaced on the surface of the wing spar. The bending and distortion strain data can then be input to the displacement equations to calculate slopes, deflections, and cross-sectional twist angles of the wing spar at the strain-sensing stations for generating the deformed shapes of flexible aircraft wing spars. The displacement equations have been successfully validated for accuracy by finite-element analysis. The Ko displacement theory that has been formulated could also be applied to calculate the deformed shape of simple and tapered beams, plates, and tapered cantilever wing boxes. The Ko displacement theory and associated strain-sensing system (such as fiber optic sensors) form a powerful tool for in-flight deformation monitoring of flexible wings and tails, such as those often employed on unmanned aerial vehicles. Ultimately, the calculated displacement data can be visually displayed in real time to the ground-based pilot for monitoring the deformed shape of unmanned aerial vehicles during flight.

Risk analysis for veterinary biologicals released into the environment.

PubMed

Silva, S V; Samagh, B S; Morley, R S

1995-12-01

All veterinary biologicals licensed in Canada must be shown to be pure, potent, safe and effective. A risk-based approach is used to evaluate the safety of all biologicals, whether produced by conventional methods or by molecular biological techniques. Traditionally, qualitative risk assessment methods have been used for this purpose. More recently, quantitative risk assessment has become available for complex issues. The quantitative risk assessment method uses "scenario tree analysis' to predict the likelihood of various outcomes and their respective impacts. The authors describe the quantitative risk assessment approach which is used within the broader context of risk analysis (i.e. risk assessment, risk management and risk communication) to develop recommendations for the field release of veterinary biologicals. The general regulatory framework for the licensing of veterinary biologicals in Canada is also presented.

Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

PubMed

Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

2016-08-13

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.

2012-02-01

Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coalmore » electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.« less

Composite structural materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ansell, G. S.; Loewy, R. G.; Wiberley, S. E.

1979-01-01

A multifaceted program is described in which aeronautical, mechanical, and materials engineers interact to develop composite aircraft structures. Topics covered include: (1) the design of an advanced composite elevator and a proposed spar and rib assembly; (2) optimizing fiber orientation in the vicinity of heavily loaded joints; (3) failure mechanisms and delamination; (4) the construction of an ultralight sailplane; (5) computer-aided design; finite element analysis programs, preprocessor development, and array preprocessor for SPAR; (6) advanced analysis methods for composite structures; (7) ultrasonic nondestructive testing; (8) physical properties of epoxy resins and composites; (9) fatigue in composite materials, and (10) transverse thermal expansion of carbon/epoxy composites.

Inhalation Anthrax: Dose Response and Risk Analysis

PubMed Central

Thran, Brandolyn; Morse, Stephen S.; Hugh-Jones, Martin; Massulik, Stacey

2008-01-01

The notion that inhalation of a single Bacillus anthracis spore is fatal has become entrenched nearly to the point of urban legend, in part because of incomplete articulation of the scientific basis for microbial risk assessment, particularly dose-response assessment. Risk analysis (ie, risk assessment, risk communication, risk management) necessitates transparency: distinguishing scientific facts, hypotheses, judgments, biases in interpretations, and potential misinformation. The difficulty in achieving transparency for biothreat risk is magnified by misinformation and poor characterization of both dose-response relationships and the driving mechanisms that cause susceptibility or resistance to disease progression. Regrettably, this entrenchment unnecessarily restricts preparedness planning to a single response scenario: decontaminate until no spores are detectable in air, water, or on surfaces—essentially forcing a zero-tolerance policy inconsistent with the biology of anthrax. We present evidence about inhalation anthrax dose-response relationships, including reports from multiple studies documenting exposures insufficient to cause inhalation anthrax in laboratory animals and humans. The emphasis of the article is clarification about what is known from objective scientific evidence for doses of anthrax spores associated with survival and mortality. From this knowledge base, we discuss the need for future applications of more formal risk analysis processes to guide development of alternative non-zero criteria or standards based on science to inform preparedness planning and other risk management activities. PMID:18582166

The dissection of risk: a conceptual analysis.

PubMed

O'Byrne, Patrick

2008-03-01

Recently, patient safety has gained popularity in the nursing literature. While this topic is used extensively and has been analyzed thoroughly, some of the concepts upon which it relies, such as risk, have remained undertheorized. In fact, despite its considerable use, the term 'risk' has been largely assumed to be inherently neutral - meaning that its definition and discovery is seen as objective and impartial, and that risk avoidance is natural and logical. Such an oversight in evaluation requires that the concept of risk be thoroughly analyzed as it relates to nursing practices, particularly in relation to those practices surrounding bio-political nursing care, such as public health, as well as other more trendy nursing topics, such as patient safety. Thus, this paper applies the Evolutionary Model of concept analysis to explore 'risk', and expose it as one mechanism of maintaining prescribed/ proscribed social practices. Thereby, an analysis of risk results in the definitions and roles of the discipline and profession of nursing expanding from solely being dedicated to patient care, to include, in addition, its functions as a governmental body that unwittingly maintains hegemonic infrastructures.

49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... safety and security risk analyses required by § 172.820. The risk analysis to be performed may be...

49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... safety and security risk analyses required by § 172.820. The risk analysis to be performed may be...

Multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management.

PubMed

Hämäläinen, R P; Lindstedt, M R; Sinkko, K

2000-08-01

Radiation protection authorities have seen a potential for applying multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management and planning to deal with conflicting objectives, different parties involved, and uncertainties. This type of approach is expected to help in the following areas: to ensure that all relevant attributes are considered in decision making; to enhance communication between the concerned parties, including the public; and to provide a method for explicitly including risk analysis in the process. A multiattribute utility theory analysis was used to select a strategy for protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident. The value-focused approach and the use of a neutral facilitator were identified as being useful.

Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

2017-07-01

Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost analysis of composite fan blade manufacturing processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stelson, T. S.; Barth, C. F.

1980-01-01

The relative manufacturing costs were estimated for large high technology fan blades prepared by advanced composite fabrication methods using seven candidate materials/process systems. These systems were identified as laminated resin matrix composite, filament wound resin matrix composite, superhybrid solid laminate, superhybrid spar/shell, metal matrix composite, metal matrix composite with a spar and shell, and hollow titanium. The costs were calculated utilizing analytical process models and all cost data are presented as normalized relative values where 100 was the cost of a conventionally forged solid titanium fan blade whose geometry corresponded to a size typical of 42 blades per disc. Four costs were calculated for each of the seven candidate systems to relate the variation of cost on blade size. Geometries typical of blade designs at 24, 30, 36 and 42 blades per disc were used. The impact of individual process yield factors on costs was also assessed as well as effects of process parameters, raw materials, labor rates and consumable items.

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Multiple piece turbine airfoil

DOEpatents

Kimmel, Keith D

2010-11-09

A turbine airfoil, such as a rotor blade or a stator vane, for a gas turbine engine, the airfoil formed as a shell and spar construction with a plurality of hook shaped struts each mounted within channels extending in a spanwise direction of the spar and the shell to allow for relative motion between the spar and shell in the airfoil chordwise direction while also fanning a seal between adjacent cooling channels. The struts provide the seal as well as prevent bulging of the shell from the spar due to the cooling air pressure. The hook struts have a hooked shaped end and a rounded shaped end in order to insert the struts into the spar.

Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

PubMed

Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

2015-04-01

A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

2015-10-01

In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

78 FR 76047 - Airworthiness Directives; The Boeing Company Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-16

... cracks of both lower chords and web on certain outboard struts. This AD requires repetitive inspections for cracking of the lower spar chords and web, web lower spar chord modification, which includes inspections for cracking of the lower spar chords, and repetitive post modification inspections for cracking...

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

PubMed

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

2016-04-01

An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

Tsunamis: Global Exposure and Local Risk Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Glimsdal, S.; Horspool, N.; Griffin, J.; Davies, G.; Frauenfelder, R.

2014-12-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a better understanding of the likelihood of tsunami occurrence and potential tsunami inundation, and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was one direct result of this event. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN-ISDR) adopted HFA in January 2005 in order to reduce disaster risk. As an instrument to compare the risk due to different natural hazards, an integrated worldwide study was implemented and published in several Global Assessment Reports (GAR) by UN-ISDR. The results of the global earthquake induced tsunami hazard and exposure analysis for a return period of 500 years are presented. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods (PTHA) are used. The resulting hazard levels for both methods are compared quantitatively for selected areas. The comparison demonstrates that the analysis is rather rough, which is expected for a study aiming at average trends on a country level across the globe. It is shown that populous Asian countries account for the largest absolute number of people living in tsunami prone areas, more than 50% of the total exposed people live in Japan. Smaller nations like Macao and the Maldives are among the most exposed by population count. Exposed nuclear power plants are limited to Japan, China, India, Taiwan, and USA. On the contrary, a local tsunami vulnerability and risk analysis applies information on population, building types, infrastructure, inundation, flow depth for a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period combined with empirical data on tsunami damages and mortality. Results and validation of a GIS tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment model are presented. The GIS model is adapted for optimal use of data available for each study. Finally, the importance of including landslide sources in the tsunami analysis is also discussed.

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) themore » Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Comparison of composite rotor blade models: A coupled-beam analysis and an MSC/NASTRAN finite-element model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, Robert V.; Nixon, Mark W.; Rehfield, Lawrence W.

1987-01-01

A methodology was developed for the structural analysis of composite rotor blades. This coupled-beam analysis is relatively simple to use compared with alternative analysis techniques. The beam analysis was developed for thin-wall single-cell rotor structures and includes the effects of elastic coupling. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the new composite-beam analysis method through comparison of its results with those of an established baseline analysis technique. The baseline analysis is an MSC/NASTRAN finite-element model built up from anisotropic shell elements. Deformations are compared for three linear static load cases of centrifugal force at design rotor speed, applied torque, and lift for an ideal rotor in hover. A D-spar designed to twist under axial loading is the subject of the analysis. Results indicate the coupled-beam analysis is well within engineering accuracy.

78 FR 53078 - Airworthiness Directives; The Boeing Company Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-28

.... This proposed AD was prompted by reports of cracks of both lower chords and web on certain outboard struts. This proposed AD would require repetitive inspections for cracking of the lower spar chords and web, web lower spar chord modification, which includes inspections for cracking of the lower spar...

Benefit-risk analysis : a brief review and proposed quantitative approaches.

PubMed

Holden, William L

2003-01-01

Given the current status of benefit-risk analysis as a largely qualitative method, two techniques for a quantitative synthesis of a drug's benefit and risk are proposed to allow a more objective approach. The recommended methods, relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-treat (RV-NNT) and its extension, minimum clinical efficacy (MCE) analysis, rely upon efficacy or effectiveness data, adverse event data and utility data from patients, describing their preferences for an outcome given potential risks. These methods, using hypothetical data for rheumatoid arthritis drugs, demonstrate that quantitative distinctions can be made between drugs which would better inform clinicians, drug regulators and patients about a drug's benefit-risk profile. If the number of patients needed to treat is less than the relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-harm in an RV-NNT analysis, patients are willing to undergo treatment with the experimental drug to derive a certain benefit knowing that they may be at risk for any of a series of potential adverse events. Similarly, the results of an MCE analysis allow for determining the worth of a new treatment relative to an older one, given not only the potential risks of adverse events and benefits that may be gained, but also by taking into account the risk of disease without any treatment. Quantitative methods of benefit-risk analysis have a place in the evaluative armamentarium of pharmacovigilance, especially those that incorporate patients' perspectives.

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish amore » lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.« less

75 FR 7945 - Airworthiness Directives; Augustair, Inc. Models 2150, 2150A, and 2180 Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-23

... inspect the vertical stabilizer front spar for cracks and loose fasteners, repair any cracks and loose fasteners found, and reinforce the vertical stabilizer spar regardless if cracks are found. This AD results from six reports of airplanes with a cracked vertical stabilizer front spar. We are issuing this AD to...

75 FR 7557 - Airworthiness Directives; The Boeing Company Model 767 Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-22

... shorts in many systems, including the spar fuel shut off valve, oxygen mask deployment, and burned wires... and wire bundles, causing shorts in many systems, including the spar fuel shut off valve, oxygen mask... and wire bundles, causing shorts in many systems, including the spar fuel shut off valve, oxygen mask...

Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2017-04-01

Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presentedmore » a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.« less

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

PubMed

I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

2008-05-01

Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

Investigation of the Biogenic Origin of Cave Pool Precipitates in the Guadalupe Mountains, NM Using Extracted Phospholipids and Other Biomarkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kooser, A. S.; Crossey, L.; Northup, D.; Spilde, M.; Melim, L.

2008-12-01

Biomarker analysis is an important tool for understanding biogenic carbonates. Past and present bacterial communities utilize chemical species present in the cave environments for metabolic processes and may directly or indirectly contribute to carbonate production. Paleo-communities of bacteria are preserved in speleothems (cave formations) called pool fingers. These speleothems range from 1-4 cm in diameter, 5- 50cm in length and contain alternating layers of micritic calcite and dog tooth spar. The outer portion of the finger can have a moonmilk coating. Pool fingers contain fossilized microbes that can be seen using scanning electron microscopy on etch samples. The lithified communities also leave behind fingerprints in the form of biomarkers. The biomarkers are extracted from pool fingers using a series of solvent washes; the products of each wash are analyzed using gas chromatography followed by gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy. Six samples including pool spar (abiotic speleothem) were examined using this technique. The moonmilk portion of the large pool finger from Cottonwood Cave contained several short-chained fatty acids (C16-C22), which are of microbial origin. In the polar fraction unknown hopanes were detected. The presence of a hopanes with short-chained fatty acids confirms the presence of bacterial biomarkers in the moonmilk portion of the pool finger. The pool spar sample (assumed to be abiotic) produced a different mass spectral pattern for the acid fraction and polar fraction. The acid fraction contains short-chain fatty acids (C16-22), but there are no hopanes present in the other fractions. The polar fraction for the polar spar is dominated by plant biomarkers producing the 'rainbow' spectra of C22 and higher chains. The pool finger, which is thought to be partially biogenic, contains both fossilized bacteria and bacteria biomarkers while the pool spar contains general biomarkers and plant biomarkers. The plant biomarkers found in the pool

Multiple piece turbine airfoil

DOEpatents

Kimmel, Keith D; Wilson, Jr., Jack W.

2010-11-02

A turbine airfoil, such as a rotor blade or a stator vane, for a gas turbine engine, the airfoil formed as a shell and spar construction with a plurality of dog bone struts each mounted within openings formed within the shell and spar to allow for relative motion between the spar and shell in the airfoil chordwise direction while also forming a seal between adjacent cooling channels. The struts provide the seal as well as prevent bulging of the shell from the spar due to the cooling air pressure.

Alzheimer disease and cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Hai-bin; Tang, Bo; Liu, Yao-Wen; Wang, Xue-Feng; Chen, Guo-Jun

2015-03-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) and cancer are seemingly two opposite ends of one spectrum. Studies have suggested that patients with AD showed a reduced risk of cancer and vice versa. However, available evidences are not conclusive. So we conducted a meta-analysis using published literatures to systematically examine cancer risk in AD patients. A PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science search were conducted in May 2014. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) with their corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using random-effects meta-analysis. We tested for publication bias and heterogeneity, and stratified for study characteristics, smoking-related cancers versus nonsmoking-related cancers, and site-specific cancers. Nine studies were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with controls, the pooled RR of cancer in AD patients was 0.55 (95 % CI 0.41-0.75), with significant heterogeneity among these studies (P < 0.001, I(2) = 83.5 %). The reduced cancer risk was more substantial when we restricted analyses to cohort studies, studies with adjusted estimates, studies defining AD by generally accepted criteria, and studies with longer length of follow-up. In sub-analyses for site-specific cancers, only lung cancer showed significant decreased risk (RR 0.72; 95 % CI 0.56-0.91). We did not find significant publication bias (P = 0.251 for Begg and Mazumdar's test and P = 0.143 for Egger's regression asymmetry test). These results support an association between AD and decreased cancer risk.

A semi-quantitative approach to GMO risk-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Morris, E Jane

2011-10-01

In many countries there are increasing calls for the benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to be considered as well as the risks, and for a risk-benefit analysis to form an integral part of GMO regulatory frameworks. This trend represents a shift away from the strict emphasis on risks, which is encapsulated in the Precautionary Principle that forms the basis for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and which is reflected in the national legislation of many countries. The introduction of risk-benefit analysis of GMOs would be facilitated if clear methodologies were available to support the analysis. Up to now, methodologies for risk-benefit analysis that would be applicable to the introduction of GMOs have not been well defined. This paper describes a relatively simple semi-quantitative methodology that could be easily applied as a decision support tool, giving particular consideration to the needs of regulators in developing countries where there are limited resources and experience. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the release of an insect resistant maize variety in South Africa as a case study. The applicability of the method in the South African regulatory system is also discussed, as an example of what might be involved in introducing changes into an existing regulatory process.

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) project SPAR 7

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poorman, R. M.

1983-01-01

The postflight reports of each of the Principal Investigators of three selected science payloads are presented in addition to the engineering report as documented by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Pertinent portions of ground-based research leading to the ultimate selection of the flight sample composition are described including design, fabrication and testing. Containerless processing technology, containerless processing bubble dynamics, and comparative alloy solidification are the experiments discussed.

Adversarial Risk Analysis for Urban Security Resource Allocation.

PubMed

Gil, César; Rios Insua, David; Rios, Jesus

2016-04-01

Adversarial risk analysis (ARA) provides a framework to deal with risks originating from intentional actions of adversaries. We show how ARA may be used to allocate security resources in the protection of urban spaces. We take into account the spatial structure and consider both proactive and reactive measures, in that we aim at both trying to reduce criminality as well as recovering as best as possible from it, should it happen. We deal with the problem by deploying an ARA model over each spatial unit, coordinating the models through resource constraints, value aggregation, and proximity. We illustrate our approach with an example that uncovers several relevant policy issues. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in themore » risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.« less

Programs for analysis and resizing of complex structures. [computerized minimum weight design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haftka, R. T.; Prasad, B.

1978-01-01

The paper describes the PARS (Programs for Analysis and Resizing of Structures) system. PARS is a user oriented system of programs for the minimum weight design of structures modeled by finite elements and subject to stress, displacement, flutter and thermal constraints. The system is built around SPAR - an efficient and modular general purpose finite element program, and consists of a series of processors that communicate through the use of a data base. An efficient optimizer based on the Sequence of Unconstrained Minimization Technique (SUMT) with an extended interior penalty function and Newton's method is used. Several problems are presented for demonstration of the system capabilities.

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant... degree of protection for the data, e.g., unencrypted, plain text; (6) Time the data has been out of VA...

75 FR 47242 - Airworthiness Directives; McDonnell Douglas Corporation Model DC-9-14, DC-9-15, and DC-9-15F...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-05

... the inboard side of the rear spar upper cap, which resulted from stress corrosion. We are proposing... the left or right center wing rear spar, which could cause a possible fuel leak, damage to the wing... the center wing rear spar that resulted from stress corrosion. We issued that AD to detect and correct...

The Use and Abuse of Risk Analysis in Policy Debate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herbeck, Dale A.; Katsulas, John P.

The best check on the preposterous claims of crisis rhetoric is an appreciation of the nature of risk analysis and how it functions in argumentation. The use of risk analysis is common in policy debate. While the stock issues paradigm focused the debate exclusively on the affirmative case, the advent of policy systems analysis has transformed…

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

PubMed

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

2018-04-01

There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... table C-1. Table C-1 provides sources where an applicant may obtain data acceptable to the FAA. An...

75 FR 4482 - Airworthiness Directives; Eurocopter France Model SE3160, SA315B, SA316B, SA316C, and SA319B...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-28

... spar by using calipers held against the face of the No. 1 spar in alignment with the through pins. [cir... using calipers held against the face of the No. 1 spar in alignment with the through pins as depicted in..., either a crack, an elongated through pinhole, movement of a through pin, or a through pin that is not...

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fraass, B.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation

Proton-pump inhibitors and risk of fractures: an update meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, B; Huang, Y; Li, H; Sun, W; Liu, J

2016-01-01

To identify the relationship between proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) and the risk of fracture, we conducted an update meta-analysis of observational studies. Results showed that PPI use was associated with a modestly increased risk of hip, spine, and any-site fracture. Many studies have investigated the association of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) with fracture risk, but the results have been inconsistent. To evaluate this question, we performed a meta-analysis of relevant observational studies. A systematic literature search up to February 2015 was performed in PubMed. We combined relative risks (RRs) for fractures using random-effects models and conducted subgroup and stratified analyses. Eighteen studies involving a total of 244,109 fracture cases were included in this meta-analysis. Pooled analysis showed that PPI use could moderately increase the risk of hip fracture [RR = 1.26, 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) 1.16–1.36]. There was statistically significant heterogeneity among studies (p < 0.001; I 2 = 71.9 %). After limiting to cohort studies, there was also a moderate increase in hip fracture risk without evidence of study heterogeneity. Pooling revealed that short-term use (<1 year) and longer use (>1 year) were similarly associated with increased risk of hip fracture. Furthermore, a moderately increased risk of spine (RR = 1.58, 95 % CI 1.38–1.82) and any-site fracture (RR = 1.33, 95 % CI 1.15–1.54) was also found among PPI users. In this update meta-analysis of observational studies, PPI use modestly increased the risk of hip, spine, and any-site fracture, but no evidence of duration effect in subgroup analysis.

Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

2018-03-01

In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

PubMed

Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

2003-07-01

Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such

Stingray Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis: WEC Risk Registers

DOE Data Explorer

Ken Rhinefrank

2016-07-25

Analysis method to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the Stingray WEC system. This analysis is incorporated early in the development cycle such that the mitigation of the identified failure modes can be achieved cost effectively and efficiently. The FMECA can begin once there is enough detail to functions and failure modes of a given system, and its interfaces with other systems. The FMECA occurs coincidently with the design process and is an iterative process which allows for design changes to overcome deficiencies in the analysis.Risk Registers for major subsystems completed according to the methodology described in "Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis Risk Reduction Program Plan.pdf" document below, in compliance with the DOE Risk Management Framework developed by NREL.

77 FR 32892 - Airworthiness Directives; Bombardier Inc. Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-04

... inspection area of the rear spar lower cap from WS 51.00 to WS 49.50 and modifying the ultrasonic inspection... inspection area of the rear spar lower cap from WS 51.00 to WS 49.50 and to modify the ultrasonic inspection... spars at wing station (WS) 51.00, and the wing lower skin. Additional actions, if cracking is found...

A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

2005-01-01

Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huston, R. J.

1979-01-01

The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.

The effectiveness of risk management: an analysis of project risk planning across industries and countries.

PubMed

Zwikael, Ofer; Ahn, Mark

2011-01-01

This article examines the effectiveness of current risk management practices to reduce project risk using a multinational, multi-industry study across different scenarios and cultures. A survey was administered to 701 project managers, and their supervisors, in seven industries and three diverse countries (New Zealand, Israel, and Japan), in multiple languages during the 2002-2007 period. Results of this study show that project context--industry and country where a project is executed--significantly impacts perceived levels of project risk, and the intensity of risk management processes. Our findings also suggest that risk management moderates the relationship between risk level and project success. Specifically, we found that even moderate levels of risk management planning are sufficient to reduce the negative effect risk levels have on project success. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management

Treesearch

Carol Miller; Alan A. Ager

2012-01-01

Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyze the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels...

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

PubMed

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

Stratigraphic and facies analysis of Ste. Genevieve Limestone, Putnam County, Indiana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevenson, G.M.

1987-05-01

The Ste. Genevieve Limestone (Mississippian) in Putnam County, Indiana, was deposited on a southwestward-sloping ramp in the northeastern portion of the Illinois basin. This portion of the Ste. Genevieve Limestone is divided into three members which, in ascending order, are the Fredonia, the Spar Mountain, and the Levias. The Fredonia Member appears to be homogeneous biomicrite on out-crop, but petrographic analysis reveals mottling and distinguishable pellets and is classified as pelbiosparite. Storm deposits are observed and typically are composed of fossil hash zones (biopelsparite) overlain by calcitic shale layers. Bioclasts consist of stenohaline forms with foraminifera, echinoderms, and bryozoans predominant.more » The gray-green shale layers represent punctuated terrigenous influx in this shallow restricted shelf. The Spar Mountain Member is commonly cross-bedded calcarenite but commonly lacks the quartz and is oolitic-pelbiosparite. The dominant particle types are quartz-centered ooids, peloids, and echinoderm fragments. Relatively high energy conditions and herringbone-cross-beds suggest deposition of a shoal with tidal current influence. The Levias Member is thin-bedded biopelsparite which represents shallow shelf deposition. The Bryantsville Breccia Bed varies in thickness across the study area and marks the top of the Levias Member. Oolitic-biopelsparite centimeter-sized clasts are contained in a matrix of similar material, suggesting an intraformational mode of origin, possibly a collapse breccia. Two incomplete shoaling-upward cycles are present in this Ste. Genevieve sequence. The lower portion of each cycle is pelbiosparite/biopelsparite overlain by oolitic-pelbiosparite and/or calcarenite.« less

Risk assessment for juvenile justice: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schwalbe, Craig S

2007-10-01

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.

Risk analysis for dry snow slab avalanche release by skier triggering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClung, David

2013-04-01

Risk analysis is of primary importance for skier triggering of avalanches since human triggering is responsible for about 90% of deaths from slab avalanches in Europe and North America. Two key measureable quantities about dry slab avalanche release prior to initiation are the depth to the weak layer and the slope angle. Both are important in risk analysis. As the slope angle increases, the probability of avalanche release increases dramatically. As the slab depth increases, the consequences increase if an avalanche releases. Among the simplest risk definitions is (Vick, 2002): Risk = (Probability of failure) x (Consequences of failure). Here, these two components of risk are the probability or chance of avalanche release and the consequences given avalanche release. In this paper, for the first time, skier triggered avalanches were analyzed from probability theory and its relation to risk for both the D and . The data consisted of two quantities : (,D) taken from avalanche fracture line profiles after an avalanche has taken place. Two data sets from accidentally skier triggered avalanches were considered: (1) 718 for and (2) a set of 1242 values of D which represent average values along the fracture line. The values of D were both estimated (about 2/3) and measured (about 1/3) by ski guides from Canadian Mountain Holidays CMH). I also analyzed 1231 accidentally skier triggered avalanches reported by CMH ski guides for avalanche size (representing destructive potential) on the Canadian scale. The size analysis provided a second analysis of consequences to verify that using D. The results showed that there is an intermediate range of both D and with highest risk. ForD, the risk (product of consequences and probability of occurrence) is highest for D in the approximate range 0.6 m - 1.0 m. The consequences are low for lower values of D and the chance of release is low for higher values of D. Thus, the highest product is in the intermediate range. For slope angles

Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

2016-04-01

Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

Body mass index and risk of BPH: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, S; Mao, Q; Lin, Y; Wu, J; Wang, X; Zheng, X; Xie, L

2012-09-01

Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting results relating obesity to BPH. A meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies was conducted to pool the risk estimates of the association between obesity and BPH. Eligible studies were retrieved by both computer searches and review of references. We analyzed abstracted data with random effects models to obtain the summary risk estimates. Dose-response meta-analysis was performed for studies reporting categorical risk estimates for a series of exposure levels. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria of the meta-analysis. Positive association with body mass index (BMI) was observed in BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) combined group (odds ratio=1.27, 95% confidence intervals 1.05-1.53). In subgroup analysis, BMI exhibited a positive dose-response relationship with BPH/LUTS in population-based case-control studies and a marginal positive association was observed between risk of BPH and increased BMI. However, no association between BPH/LUTS and BMI was observed in other subgroups stratified by study design, geographical region or primary outcome. The overall current literatures suggested that BMI was associated with increased risk of BPH. Further efforts should be made to confirm these findings and clarify the underlying biological mechanisms.

Adversarial risk analysis with incomplete information: a level-k approach.

PubMed

Rothschild, Casey; McLay, Laura; Guikema, Seth

2012-07-01

This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level-k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level-k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend-attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at ‘high risk’: a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools

PubMed Central

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-01-01

Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180

Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

PubMed Central

Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

2009-01-01

This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

Risk Analysis Methods for Deepwater Port Oil Transfer Systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-06-01

This report deals with the risk analysis methodology for oil spills from the oil transfer systems in deepwater ports. Failure mode and effect analysis in combination with fault tree analysis are identified as the methods best suited for the assessmen...

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila

2011-01-01

Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Analysis. 2.71 Section 2.71 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY BY... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to human...

7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Analysis. 2.71 Section 2.71 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY BY... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to human...

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

PubMed

Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

2016-01-01

Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

2016-07-01

Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N

Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much.more » Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.« less

NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

PubMed

van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

2009-12-05

We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

Sodium bicarbonate ingestion and boxing performance.

PubMed

Siegler, Jason C; Hirscher, Kristian

2010-01-01

Boxing is a sport that consists of multiple high-intensity bouts separated by minimal recovery time and may benefit from a pre-exercise alkalotic state. The purpose of this study was to observe the ergogenic potential of sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3) ingestion on boxing performance. Ten amateur boxers volunteered to participate in 2 competitive sparring bouts. The boxers were prematched for weight and boxing ability and consumed either 0.3 g.kg(-1) body weight (BW) of NaHCO3 (BICARB) or 0.045 g.kg(-1) BW of NaCl placebo (PLAC) mixed in diluted low calorie-flavored cordial. The sparring bouts consisted of four 3-minute rounds, each separated by 1-minute seated recovery. Blood acid-base (pH, bicarbonate [HCO3(-)], base excess [BE]), and performance (rates of perceived exertion [RPE], heart rate [HR] [HR(ave) and HR(max)], total punches landed successfully) profiles were analyzed before (where applicable) and after sparring. The results indicated a significant interaction effect for HCO3(-) (p < or = 0.001) and BE (p < 0.001), but not for pH (p = 0.48). Post hoc analysis revealed higher presparring HCO3(-) and BE for the BICARB condition, but no differences between the BICARB and PLAC conditions postsparring. There was a significant increase in punches landed during the BICARB condition (p < 0.001); however, no significant interaction effects for HRave (p = 0.15), HRmax (p = 0.32), or RPE (p = 0.38). The metabolic alkalosis induced by the NaHCO3 loading elevated before and after sparring blood buffering capacity. In practical application, the findings suggest that a standard NaHCO3 loading dose (0.3 g.kg(-1)) improves punch efficacy during 4 rounds of sparring performance.

Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis Overestimates the Risk of Revision Arthroplasty: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter D; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

2015-11-01

Although Kaplan-Meier survival analysis is commonly used to estimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint arthroplasty, it theoretically overestimates the risk of revision in the presence of competing risks (such as death). Because the magnitude of overestimation is not well documented, the potential associated impact on clinical and policy decision-making remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent does the Kaplan-Meier method overestimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint replacement compared with alternative competing-risks methods? (2) Is the extent of overestimation influenced by followup time or rate of competing risks? We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, and Web of Science (1946, 1980, 1980, and 1899, respectively, to October 26, 2013) and included article bibliographies for studies comparing estimated cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using both Kaplan-Meier and competing-risks methods. We excluded conference abstracts, unpublished studies, or studies using simulated data sets. Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated the quality of reporting of the included studies. Among 1160 abstracts identified, six studies were included in our meta-analysis. The principal reason for the steep attrition (1160 to six) was that the initial search was for studies in any clinical area that compared the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier versus competing-risks methods for any event (not just the cumulative incidence of hip or knee revision); we did this to minimize the likelihood of missing any relevant studies. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) comparing the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the competing-risks method for each study and used DerSimonian and Laird random effects models to pool these RRs. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified meta-analyses and

Changes in Classes of Injury-Related Risks and Consequences of Risk-Level Drinking: a Latent Transition Analysis.

PubMed

Cochran, Gerald; Field, Craig; Caetano, Raul

2015-07-01

Risk-level drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related violence are risk factors that result in injuries. The current study sought to identify which subgroups of patients experience the most behavioral change following a brief intervention. A secondary analysis of data from a brief alcohol intervention study was conducted. The sample (N = 664) includes at-risk drinkers who experienced an injury and were admitted for care to a Level 1 trauma center. Injury-related items from the Short Inventory of Problems+6 were used to perform a latent transition analysis to describe class transitions participants experienced following discharge. Four classes emerged for the year before and after the current injury. Most individuals transitioned from higher-risk classes into those with lower risk. Some participants maintained risky profiles, and others increased risks and consequences. Drinking and driving remained a persistent problem among the study participants. Although a large portion of intervention recipients improved risks and consequences of alcohol use following discharge, more intensive intervention services may be needed for a subset of patients who showed little or no improvement.

Critical asset and portfolio risk analysis: an all-hazards framework.

PubMed

Ayyub, Bilal M; McGill, William L; Kaminskiy, Mark

2007-08-01

This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

2011-01-01

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diabetes mellitus and risk of hip fractures: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fan, Y; Wei, F; Lang, Y; Liu, Y

2016-01-01

This meta-analysis revealed that diabetic adults had a twofold greater risk of hip fractures compared with non-diabetic populations, and this association was more pronounced in type 1 diabetes. The relationship between diabetes mellitus and risk of hip fracture yielded conflicting results. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the association between diabetes mellitus and the risk of hip fractures based on observational studies. We conducted a systematic literature search of PubMed and Embase databases through May 2015. We selected cohort and case-control studies providing at least age-adjusted risk ratio (RR) and corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CI) of hip fractures among diabetic and non-diabetic subjects. Moreover, we pooled the female-to-male RR of hip fractures from studies that reported gender-specific risk estimate in a single study. Twenty-one studies involving 82,293 hip fracture events among 6,995,272 participants were identified. Diabetes mellitus was associated with an increased risk of hip fractures (RR 2.07; 95 % CI 1.83-2.33) in a random effects model. Subgroup analysis indicated that excess risk of hip fracture was more pronounced in type 1 diabetes (RR 5.76; 95 % CI 3.66-9.07) than that in type 2 diabetes (RR 1.34; 95 % CI 1.19-1.51). The pooled female-to-male RR of hip fractures was 1.09 (95 % CI 0.93-1.28). Individuals with diabetes mellitus have an excessive risk of hip fractures, and this relationship is more pronounced in type 1 diabetes. The association between diabetes and hip fracture risk is similar in men and women.

Comprehensive risk analysis for structure type selection.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

Optimization of bridge selection and design traditionally has been sought in terms of the finished structure. This study presents a : more comprehensive risk-based analysis that includes user costs and accidents during the construction phase. Costs f...

Composite transport wing technology development: Design development tests and advanced structural concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffin, Charles F.; Harvill, William E.

1988-01-01

Numerous design concepts, materials, and manufacturing methods were investigated for the covers and spars of a transport box wing. Cover panels and spar segments were fabricated and tested to verify the structural integrity of design concepts and fabrication techniques. Compression tests on stiffened panels demonstrated the ability of graphite/epoxy wing upper cover designs to achieve a 35 percent weight savings compared to the aluminum baseline. The impact damage tolerance of the designs and materials used for these panels limits the allowable compression strain and therefore the maximum achievable weight savings. Bending and shear tests on various spar designs verified an average weight savings of 37 percent compared to the aluminum baseline. Impact damage to spar webs did not significantly degrade structural performance. Predictions of spar web shear instability correlated well with measured performance. The structural integrity of spars manufactured by filament winding equalled or exceeded those fabricated by hand lay-up. The information obtained will be applied to the design, fabrication, and test of a full-scale section of a wing box. When completed, the tests on the technology integration box beam will demonstrate the structural integrity of an advanced composite wing design which is 25 percent lighter than the metal baseline.

Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartram, Bart W.; Vaughan, Frank R.; Englehart, Richard W., Dr.

1991-01-01

The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value.

Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

2016-10-01

Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Biomechanical analysis on fracture risk associated with bone deformity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, Nur Amalina Nadiah Mustafa; Som, Mohd Hanafi Mat; Basaruddin, Khairul Salleh; Daud, Ruslizam

2017-09-01

Osteogenesis Imperfecta (OI) is a disease related to bone deformity and is also known as `brittle bone' disease. Currently, medical personnel predict the bone fracture solely based on their experience. In this study, the prediction for risk of fracture was carried out by using finite element analysis on the simulated OI bone of femur. The main objective of this research was to analyze the fracture risk of OI-affected bone with respect to various loadings. A total of 12 models of OI bone were developed by applying four load cases and the angle of deformation for each of the models was calculated. The models were differentiated into four groups, namely standard, light, mild and severe. The results show that only a small amount of load is required to increase the fracture risk of the bone when the model is tested with hopping conditions. The analysis also shows that the torsional load gives a small effect to the increase of the fracture risk of the bone.

An Improved Gaussian Mixture Model for Damage Propagation Monitoring of an Aircraft Wing Spar under Changing Structural Boundary Conditions.

PubMed

Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Fang, Fang

2016-02-26

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) technology is considered to be a key technology to reduce the maintenance cost and meanwhile ensure the operational safety of aircraft structures. It has gradually developed from theoretic and fundamental research to real-world engineering applications in recent decades. The problem of reliable damage monitoring under time-varying conditions is a main issue for the aerospace engineering applications of SHM technology. Among the existing SHM methods, Guided Wave (GW) and piezoelectric sensor-based SHM technique is a promising method due to its high damage sensitivity and long monitoring range. Nevertheless the reliability problem should be addressed. Several methods including environmental parameter compensation, baseline signal dependency reduction and data normalization, have been well studied but limitations remain. This paper proposes a damage propagation monitoring method based on an improved Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). It can be used on-line without any structural mechanical model and a priori knowledge of damage and time-varying conditions. With this method, a baseline GMM is constructed first based on the GW features obtained under time-varying conditions when the structure under monitoring is in the healthy state. When a new GW feature is obtained during the on-line damage monitoring process, the GMM can be updated by an adaptive migration mechanism including dynamic learning and Gaussian components split-merge. The mixture probability distribution structure of the GMM and the number of Gaussian components can be optimized adaptively. Then an on-line GMM can be obtained. Finally, a best match based Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is studied to measure the migration degree between the baseline GMM and the on-line GMM to reveal the weak cumulative changes of the damage propagation mixed in the time-varying influence. A wing spar of an aircraft is used to validate the proposed method. The results indicate that the crack

Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

Efficient Analysis of Complex Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kapania, Rakesh K.

2000-01-01

Last various accomplishments achieved during this project are : (1) A Survey of Neural Network (NN) applications using MATLAB NN Toolbox on structural engineering especially on equivalent continuum models (Appendix A). (2) Application of NN and GAs to simulate and synthesize substructures: 1-D and 2-D beam problems (Appendix B). (3) Development of an equivalent plate-model analysis method (EPA) for static and vibration analysis of general trapezoidal built-up wing structures composed of skins, spars and ribs. Calculation of all sorts of test cases and comparison with measurements or FEA results. (Appendix C). (4) Basic work on using second order sensitivities on simulating wing modal response, discussion of sensitivity evaluation approaches, and some results (Appendix D). (5) Establishing a general methodology of simulating the modal responses by direct application of NN and by sensitivity techniques, in a design space composed of a number of design points. Comparison is made through examples using these two methods (Appendix E). (6) Establishing a general methodology of efficient analysis of complex wing structures by indirect application of NN: the NN-aided Equivalent Plate Analysis. Training of the Neural Networks for this purpose in several cases of design spaces, which can be applicable for actual design of complex wings (Appendix F).

Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.

2007-01-01

Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…

Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Schnase, J.L.

2006-01-01

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Meta-analysis: Risk of dry mouth with second generation antidepressants.

PubMed

Cappetta, Kiley; Beyer, Chad; Johnson, Jessica A; Bloch, Michael H

2018-06-08

The goal of this meta-analysis was to quantify the risk of dry mouth associated with commonly prescribed antidepressant agents and examine the potential implications of medication class, dose, and pharmacodynamics and dose on risk of treatment-induced dry mouth. A PubMed search was conducted to identify double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials examining the efficacy and tolerability of second generation antidepressant medications for adults with depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, and OCD. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to quantify the pooled risk ratio of treatment-emergent dry mouth with second generation antidepressants compared to placebo. Stratified subgroup analysis and meta-regression was utilized to further examine the effects antidepressant agent, class, dosage, indication, and receptor affinity profile on the measured risk of dry mouth. 99 trials involving 20,868 adults. SNRIs (Relative Risk (RR)=2.24, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.95-2.58, z=11.2, p<0.001) were associated with a significantly greater risk of dry mouth (test for subgroup differences χ 2 =7.6, df=1; p=0.006) compared to placebo than SSRIs (RR=1.65, 95% CI: 1.39-1.95, z=5.8, p<0.001). There was a significant difference found in the risk of dry mouth between diagnostic indications within the SNRI class (test for subgroup differences χ 2 =9.63, df=1; p=0.002). Anxiety diagnoses (RR=2.78, 95% CI: 2.29-3.38, z=10.32, p<0.001) were associated with a greater risk of dry mouth compared to depression (RR=1.80, 95% CI: 1.48-2.18, z=5.85, p<0.001). Decreased affinity for Alpha-1 (PE=0.18, 95% CI: 0.07-0.28, z=3.26, p=0.001) and Alpha-2 (PE=0.49, 95% CI: 0.22-0.75, z=3.64, p<0.001) receptors and SERT (PE=0.07, 95% CI: 0.01-0.14, z=2.10, p<0.05) was significantly associated with increased risk of dry mouth. The current meta-analysis suggests that SSRIs, SNRIs, and atypical antidepressants are all associated with varying degrees of increased risk of dry mouth. SNRIs were

Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

PubMed

Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

2004-04-01

Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

2014-10-01

Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

Multiple piece turbine blade

DOEpatents

Kimmel, Keith D [Jupiter, FL

2012-05-29

A turbine rotor blade with a spar and shell construction, the spar including an internal cooling supply channel extending from an inlet end on a root section and ending near the tip end, and a plurality of external cooling channels formed on both side of the spar, where a middle external cooling channel is connected to the internal cooling supply channels through a row of holes located at a middle section of the channels. The spar and the shell are held together by hooks that define serpentine flow passages for the cooling air and include an upper serpentine flow circuit and a lower serpentine flow circuit. the serpentine flow circuits all discharge into a leading edge passage or a trailing edge passage.

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

PubMed

Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

2012-05-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Migraine Headache and Ischemic Stroke Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Spector, June T.; Kahn, Susan R.; Jones, Miranda R.; Jayakumar, Monisha; Dalal, Deepan; Nazarian, Saman

2010-01-01

Background Observational studies, including recent large cohort studies which were unavailable for prior meta-analysis, have suggested an association between migraine headache and ischemic stroke. We performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the strength of association between migraine and ischemic stroke risk. Methods We systematically searched electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, through February 2009 for studies of human subjects in the English language. Study selection using a priori selection criteria, data extraction, and assessment of study quality were conducted independently by reviewer pairs using standardized forms. Results Twenty-one (60%) of 35 studies met the selection criteria, for a total of 622,381 participants (13 case-control, 8 cohort studies) included in the meta-analysis. The pooled adjusted odds ratio of ischemic stroke comparing migraineurs to non-migraineurs using a random effects model was 2.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.76). The pooled adjusted effect estimates for studies that reported relative risks and hazard ratios, respectively, were 2.41 (95% CI, 1.81-3.20) and 1.52 (95% CI, 0.99-2.35). The overall pooled effect estimate was 2.04 (95% CI, 1.72-2.43). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding lower quality studies. Conclusions Migraine is associated with increased ischemic stroke risk. These findings underscore the importance of identifying high-risk migraineurs with other modifiable stroke risk factors. Future studies of the effect of migraine treatment and modifiable risk factor reduction on stroke risk in migraineurs are warranted. PMID:20493462

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

PubMed

Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

2012-01-01

Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model (PREPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-20

Dengue • Listeria monocytogenes • Filoviruses coronavirus ( SARS -CoV) • Campylobacter jejuni • Ebola • Yersinia enterocolitica) • Marburg...OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT Same as Report ( SAR ) 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 29 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT unclassified b. ABSTRACT...which may be to maximize the consequences they can inflict (Golany et al., Figure 2: Decision Tree Example  7    Submitted to Risk Analysis

Global Persistent Attack: A Systems Architecture, Process Modeling, and Risk Analysis Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

develop an analysis process for quantifying risk associated with the limitations presented by a fiscally constrained environment. The second step...previous independent analysis of each force structure provided information for quantifying risk associated with the given force presentations, the

76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-06

... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...

Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Kambiz; Ren, Jun; Roberts, Charles; Wang, Jin

2011-08-30

Ports and offshore terminals are critical infrastructure resources and play key roles in the transportation of goods and people. With more than 80 percent of international trade by volume being carried out by sea, ports and offshore terminals are vital for seaborne trade and international commerce. Furthermore in today's uncertain and complex environment there is a need to analyse the participated risk factors in order to prioritise protective measures in these critically logistics infrastructures. As a result of this study is carried out to support the risk assessment phase of the proposed Risk Management (RM) framework used for the purpose of sea ports and offshore terminals operations and management (PTOM). This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework into the risk assessment phase as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse the risk factors associated within the PTOM. This process will eventually help the port professionals and port risk managers to investigate the identified risk factors more in detail. In order to deal with vagueness of the data Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and possibility approach are used to overcome the disadvantages of the conventional probability based approaches. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of resin film infusion, resin transfer molding, and consolidation of textile preforms for primary aircraft structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, J.; Dastin, S.

1992-01-01

Under NASA's Novel Composites for Wing and Fuselage Applications (NCWFA) Program, Grumman is developing innovative design concepts and cost-effective fabrication processes for damage-tolerant primary structures that can perform at a design ultimate strain level of 6000 micro-inch/inch. Attention has focused on the use of textile high-performance fiber-reinforcement concepts that provide improved damage tolerance and out-of-plane load capability, low-cost resin film infusion (RFI) and resin transfer molding (RTM) processes, and thermoplastic forming concepts. The fabrication of wing 'Y' spars by four different materials/processes methods is described: 'Y' spars fabricated using IM7 angle interlock 0/90 deg woven preforms with +/- 45 deg plies stitched with Toray high-strength graphite thread and processed using RFI and 3501-6 epoxy; 'Y' spars fabricated using G40-800 knitted/stitched preforms and processed using RFI and 3501-6 epoxy; 'Y' spars fabricated using G40-800 knitted/stitched preforms and processed using RTM and Tactix 123/H41 epoxy; and 'Y' spars fabricated using AS4(6k)/PEEK 150-g commingled angle interlock 0/90 deg woven preforms with +/- 45 deg commingled plies stitched using high-strength graphite thread and processed by consolidation. A comparison of the structural efficiency, processability, and projected acquisition cost of these representative spars is presented.

Residential Ventilation: A Review of Established Systems and a Laboratory Investigation of the Fine Wire Heat Recovery Ventilator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Hippel, Matthew Hans Benjamin

A novel vehicle concept is introduced and its feasibility as an autonomous, self-propelled weather buoy for use in violent storm systems is analyzed. The vehicle concept is a spar sailboat -- consisting of only a deep keel and a sailing rig; no hull -- a design which is intended to improve longevity in rough seas as well as provide ideal placement opportunities for meteorological sensors. To evaluate the hypothetical locomotive and meteorological observation capabilities of the concept sailing spar in hurricane-like conditions, several relevant oceanographic phenomena are analyzed with the performance of the concept vehicle in mind. Enthalpy transfer from the ocean to the air is noted as the primary driving force of tropical storms and therefore becomes the measuring objective of the sailing spar. A discrete, iterative process for optimizing driving force while achieving equilibrium between the four airfoil surfaces is used to steer the sailing spar towards any objective despite variable and opposing simulated winds. Based on the limitations of sailing theory, logic is developed to autonomously navigate the sailing spar between human-selected waypoints on a digitized geographic map. Due the perceived inability to measure air-sea enthalpy exchange because the nature of tropical storms and due to its small scale, the sailing spar is deemed infeasible as a hurricane-capable meteorological observation platform.

Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

2017-04-01

Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

Effect of element size on the solution accuracies of finite-element heat transfer and thermal stress analyses of space shuttle orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, William L.; Olona, Timothy

1987-01-01

The effect of element size on the solution accuracies of finite-element heat transfer and thermal stress analyses of space shuttle orbiter was investigated. Several structural performance and resizing (SPAR) thermal models and NASA structural analysis (NASTRAN) structural models were set up for the orbiter wing midspan bay 3. The thermal model was found to be the one that determines the limit of finite-element fineness because of the limitation of computational core space required for the radiation view factor calculations. The thermal stresses were found to be extremely sensitive to a slight variation of structural temperature distributions. The minimum degree of element fineness required for the thermal model to yield reasonably accurate solutions was established. The radiation view factor computation time was found to be insignificant compared with the total computer time required for the SPAR transient heat transfer analysis.

Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

PubMed

Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

2015-09-01

Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

PubMed

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality

Evaluation of rail test frequencies using risk analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-03

Several industries now use risk analysis to develop : inspection programs to ensure acceptable mechanical integrity : and reliability. These industries include nuclear and electric : power generation, oil refining, gas processing, onshore and : offsh...

Finite element analysis of a deployable space structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hutton, D. V.

1982-01-01

To assess the dynamic characteristics of a deployable space truss, a finite element model of the Scientific Applications Space Platform (SASP) truss has been formulated. The model incorporates all additional degrees of freedom associated with the pin-jointed members. Comparison of results with SPAR models of the truss show that the joints of the deployable truss significantly affect the vibrational modes of the structure only if the truss is relatively short.

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA

PubMed Central

Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-01-01

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants. PMID:28665325

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA.

PubMed

Fuentes-Bargues, José Luis; González-Cruz, Mª Carmen; González-Gaya, Cristina; Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-06-30

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants.

Quantitative Risk Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helms, J.

2017-02-10

The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investmentsmore » or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.« less

Spatiotemporal analysis of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Wei; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Dong; Li, Tian-xiao; Cheng, Kun; Cui, Song

2017-06-01

Droughts are natural disasters that pose significant threats to agricultural production as well as living conditions, and a spatial-temporal difference analysis of agricultural drought risk can help determine the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the drought risk within a region. Moreover, this type of analysis can provide a theoretical basis for the identification, prevention, and mitigation of drought disasters. In this study, the overall dispersion and local aggregation of projection points were based on research by Friedman and Tukey (IEEE Trans on Computer 23:881-890, 1974). In this work, high-dimensional samples were clustered by cluster analysis. The clustering results were represented by the clustering matrix, which determined the local density in the projection index. This method avoids the problem of determining a cutoff radius. An improved projection pursuit model is proposed that combines cluster analysis and the projection pursuit model, which offer advantages for classification and assessment, respectively. The improved model was applied to analyze the agricultural drought risk of 13 cities in Heilongjiang Province over 6 years (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014). The risk of an agricultural drought disaster was characterized by 14 indicators and the following four aspects: hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and resistance capacity. The spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed. The spatial distribution results indicated that Suihua, Qigihar, Daqing, Harbin, and Jiamusi are located in high-risk areas, Daxing'anling and Yichun are located in low-risk areas, and the differences among the regions were primarily caused by the aspects exposure and resistance capacity. The temporal variation results indicated that the risk of agricultural drought in most areas presented an initially increasing and then decreasing trend. A higher value for the exposure

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

PubMed

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

2005-08-31

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

2017-12-01

This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

Stationary turbine component with laminated skin

DOEpatents

James, Allister W [Orlando, FL

2012-08-14

A stationary turbine engine component, such as a turbine vane, includes a internal spar and an external skin. The internal spar is made of a plurality of spar laminates, and the external skin is made of a plurality of skin laminates. The plurality of skin laminates interlockingly engage the plurality of spar laminates such that the external skin is located and held in place. This arrangement allows alternative high temperature materials to be used on turbine engine components in areas where their properties are needed without having to make the entire component out of such material. Thus, the manufacturing difficulties associated with making an entire component of such a material and the attendant high costs are avoided. The skin laminates can be made of advanced generation single crystal superalloys, intermetallics and refractory alloys.

Night Shift Work and Risk of Depression: Meta-analysis of Observational Studies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This study aimed to assess whether night shift work is associated with the risk of depression by using a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in August, 2016 to locate eligible studies and investigated the association between night shift work and the risk of depression, reporting outcome measures with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the meta-analysis of a total of 11 observational studies with 9 cross-sectional study, 1 longitudinal study, and 1 cohort study, night shift work was significantly associated with an increased risk of depression (OR/RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24–1.64; I2 = 78.0%). Also, subgroup meta-analyses by gender, night shift work duration, type of occupation, continent, and type of publication showed that night shift work was consistently associated with the increased risk of depression. The current meta-analysis suggests that night shift work is associated with the increased risk of depression. However, further large prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm this association. PMID:28581264

Precursor Analysis for Flight- and Ground-Based Anomaly Risk Significance Determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groen, Frank

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the precursor analysis for flight and ground based anomaly risk significance. It includes information on accident precursor analysis, real models vs. models, and probabilistic analysis.

Classifying Nanomaterial Risks Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linkov, I.; Steevens, J.; Chappell, M.; Tervonen, T.; Figueira, J. R.; Merad, M.

There is rapidly growing interest by regulatory agencies and stakeholders in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of the product life cycle (e.g., development, production, use and disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological material may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material because of the variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as promote the safe use/handling of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. The stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial's physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgement. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.1,2

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

Meta-analysis: eating frequency and risk of colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Liu, Yanqiong; Tang, Weizhong; Zhai, Limin; Yang, Shi; Wu, Junrong; Xie, Li; Wang, Jian; Deng, Yan; Qin, Xue; Li, Shan

2014-04-01

Eating frequency has been implicated in the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in several epidemiological studies with contradictory and inconclusive findings. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate their relationship. The pooled relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated to estimate the effects. A total of 15 eligible studies with 141,431 subjects and 11,248 cases were retrieved after a comprehensive search of the PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases up to October 2013. The overall meta-analysis revealed no strong significant association between eating frequency and risk of CRC in different eating occasion categories (1 meal/day): RR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.94-1.09, P = 0.709; 3 vs. <3 daily meals: RR = 1.17, 95% CI 0.93-1.46; 4 vs. <3 daily meals: RR = 1.13, 95% CI 0.92-1.38; ≥ 5 vs. <3 daily meals: RR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.61-1.47; 4 vs. ≤ 3 daily meals: RR = 1.18, 95% CI 0.92-1.51; and 1-2 vs. 3 or 4 daily meals: RR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.63-1.06). However, modest evidence of an increased risk of CRC in case-control studies (RR = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.11-1.52) and ≥ 5 vs. ≤ 3 meals group (RR = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.11-1.52) was observed. Our meta-analysis results do not support the hypothesis that eating frequency strongly reduced or increased the risk of CRC. Clinical randomized trials are required to evaluate this relationship further.

Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Xu, Jiuhong; Song, Chunli; Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-10

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture.

TNF -308 G/A Polymorphism and Risk of Acne Vulgaris: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Yang, Jian-Kang; Wu, Wen-Juan; Qi, Jue; He, Li; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2014-01-01

Background The -308 G/A polymorphism in the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene has been implicated in the risk of acne vulgaris, but the results are inconclusive. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the overall association between the -308 G/A polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Methods We searched in Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science and CNKI for studies evaluating the association between the -308 G/A gene polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Data were extracted and statistical analysis was performed using STATA 12.0 software. Results A total of five publications involving 1553 subjects (728 acne vulgaris cases and 825 controls) were included in this meta-analysis. Combined analysis revealed a significant association between this polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk under recessive model (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.37–5.44, p = 0.004 for AA vs. AG + GG). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed that the acne vulgaris risk associated with the -308 G/A gene polymorphism was significantly elevated among Caucasians under recessive model (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.13–4.86, p = 0.023). Conclusion This meta-analysis suggests that the -308 G/A polymorphism in the TNF gene contributes to acne vulgaris risk, especially in Caucasian populations. Further studies among different ethnicity populations are needed to validate these findings. PMID:24498378

TNF-308 G/A polymorphism and risk of acne vulgaris: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Jian-Kang; Wu, Wen-Juan; Qi, Jue; He, Li; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2014-01-01

The -308 G/A polymorphism in the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene has been implicated in the risk of acne vulgaris, but the results are inconclusive. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the overall association between the -308 G/A polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. We searched in Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science and CNKI for studies evaluating the association between the -308 G/A gene polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Data were extracted and statistical analysis was performed using STATA 12.0 software. A total of five publications involving 1553 subjects (728 acne vulgaris cases and 825 controls) were included in this meta-analysis. Combined analysis revealed a significant association between this polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk under recessive model (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.37-5.44, p = 0.004 for AA vs. AG + GG). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed that the acne vulgaris risk associated with the -308 G/A gene polymorphism was significantly elevated among Caucasians under recessive model (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.13-4.86, p = 0.023). This meta-analysis suggests that the -308 G/A polymorphism in the TNF gene contributes to acne vulgaris risk, especially in Caucasian populations. Further studies among different ethnicity populations are needed to validate these findings.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENTS FOR MUNICIPAL WASTE COMBUSTORS

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative health risk assessments have been performed for a number of proposed municipal waste combustor (MWC) facilities over the past several years. his article presents the results of a comparative analysis of a total of 21 risk assessments, focusing on seven of the most co...

Analysis of the individual risk of altitude decompression sickness under repeated exposures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, K. Vasantha; Horrigan, David J.; Waligora, James M.; Gilbert, John H.

1991-01-01

In a case-control study, researchers examined the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in individual subjects with higher number of exposures. Of the 126 subjects, 42 showed one or more episodes of DCS. Examination of the exposure-DCS relationship by odds ratio showed a linear relationship. Stratification analysis showed that sex, tissue ratio, and the presence of Doppler microbubbles were cofounders of this risk. A higher number of exposures increased the risk of DCS in this analysis.

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

PubMed Central

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2016-01-01

In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

1995-12-31

It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements inmore » health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada`s concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health.« less

An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

PubMed

Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

2011-07-01

In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation ofmore » the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.« less

Meta-analysis on shift work and risks of specific obesity types.

PubMed

Sun, M; Feng, W; Wang, F; Li, P; Li, Z; Li, M; Tse, G; Vlaanderen, J; Vermeulen, R; Tse, L A

2018-01-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the associations between shift work patterns and risks of specific types of obesity. PubMed was searched until March 2017 for observational studies that examined the relationships between shift work patterns and obesity. Odds ratio for obesity was extracted using a fixed-effects or random-effects model. Subgroup meta-analyses were carried out for study design, specific obesity types and characteristics of shift work pattern. A total of 28 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The overall odds ratio of night shift work was 1.23 (95% confidence interval = 1.17-1.29) for risk of obesity/overweight. Cross-sectional studies showed a higher risk of 1.26 than those with the cohort design (risk ratio = 1.10). Shift workers had a higher frequency of developing abdominal obesity (odds ratio = 1.35) than other obesity types. Permanent night workers demonstrated a 29% higher risk than rotating shift workers (odds ratio 1.43 vs. 1.14). This meta-analysis confirmed the risks of night shift work for the development of overweight and obesity with a potential gradient association suggested, especially for abdominal obesity. Modification of working schedules is recommended, particularly for prolonged permanent night work. More accurate and detailed measurements on shift work patterns should be conducted in future research. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

Solar Array Panels With Dust-Removal Capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawson, Stephen; Mardesich, Nick; Spence, Brian; White, Steve

2004-01-01

It has been proposed to incorporate piezoelectric vibrational actuators into the structural supports of solar photovoltaic panels, for the purpose of occasionally inducing vibrations in the panels in order to loosen accumulated dust. Provided that the panels were tilted, the loosened dust would slide off under its own weight. Originally aimed at preventing obscuration of photovoltaic cells by dust accumulating in the Martian environment, the proposal may also offer an option for the design of solar photovoltaic panels for unattended operation at remote locations on Earth. The figure depicts a typical lightweight solar photovoltaic panel comprising a backside grid of structural spars that support a thin face sheet that, in turn, supports an array of photovoltaic cells on the front side. The backside structure includes node points where several spars intersect. According to the proposal, piezoelectric buzzers would be attached to the node points. The process of designing the panel would be an iterative one that would include computational simulation of the vibrations by use of finite- element analysis to guide the selection of the vibrational frequency of the actuators and the cross sections of the spars to maximize the agitation of dust.

A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

2017-08-01

Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Bacterial vaginosis in pregnancy and the risk of prematurity: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Flynn, C A; Helwig, A L; Meurer, L N

1999-11-01

We conducted this meta-analysis to determine the magnitude of risk conferred by bacterial vaginosis during pregnancy on preterm delivery. We selected articles from a combination of the results of a MEDLINE search (1966-1996), a manual search of bibliographies, and contact with leading researchers. We included case control and cohort studies evaluating the risk of preterm delivery, low birth weight, preterm premature rupture of membranes, or preterm labor for pregnant women who had bacterial vaginosis and those who did not. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS. Two investigators independently conducted literature searches, applied inclusion criteria, performed data extraction, and critically appraised included studies. Summary estimates of risk were calculated as odds ratios (ORs) using the fixed and random effects models. We included 19 studies in the final analysis. Bacterial vaginosis during pregnancy was associated with a statistically significant increased risk for all outcomes evaluated. In the subanalyses for preterm delivery, bacterial vaginosis remained a significant risk factor. Pooling adjusted ORs yielded a 60% increased risk of preterm delivery given the presence of bacterial vaginosis. Bacterial vaginosis is an important risk factor for prematurity and pregnancy morbidity. Further studies will help clarify the benefits of treating bacterial vaginosis and the potential role of screening during pregnancy.

Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

2016-04-01

In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

Dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Zongyao; Li, Bingrong; Song, Xingxing; Zhang, Dongfeng

2017-05-01

The associations between dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression remain controversial. Thus, we carried out a meta-analysis to evaluate these associations. A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Wanfang databases for relevant studies up to January 2017. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random effects model. A total of 9 studies for dietary zinc intake and 3 studies for dietary iron intake were finally included in present meta-analysis. The pooled RRs with 95% CIs of depression for the highest versus lowest dietary zinc and iron intake were 0.67 (95% CI: 0.58-0.76) and 0.57 (95% CI: 0.34-0.95), respectively. In subgroup analysis by study design, the inverse association between dietary zinc intake and risk of depression remained significant in the cohort studies and cross-sectional studies. The pooled RRs (95% CIs) for depression did not substantially change in the influence analysis and subgroup analysis by adjustment for body mass index (BMI). The present meta-analysis indicates inverse associations between dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stable isotopic compositions of early calcite cements in the Middle Devonian Coralville Formation (Cedar Valley Group), eastern Iowa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ludvigson, G.A.; Gonzalez, L.S.; Witzke, B.J.

1993-03-01

The Middle-Upper Devonian Cedar Valley Gp in Iowa is subdivided into four formations each representing a broad transgressive-regressive (T-R) cycle of deposition. Cycles consist of basal open marine facies that shallow upward into capping peritidal facies. Results from ongoing diagenetic studies of the Coralville Fm (late Givetian), the second T-R cycle of the Cedar Valley Gp, have focused attention on the origins of early cements. Early calcite cements in the Coralville Fm of Johnson County, Iowa, include blocky equant spars filling fenestral voids in birdseye limestones of the Iowa City Mbr and isopachous bladed spars that occur throughout the Coralville.more » Bladed spars fill stromatactis and microkarstic voids in the Iowa City Mbr, and sheltered voids in underlying open-marine skeletal packstones of the Cou Falls Mbr (lower Coralville cycle). The bladed spars include nonluminescent inclusion-free domains that contain up to 4,000 ppm Mg, and luminescent inclusion-rich domains that contain less than 2,000 ppm Mg. Birdseye spars have a constructive oscillatory luminescent-nonluminescent zonation controlled by Mn contents and contain less than 1,000 ppm Mg. Nonluminescent domains in bladed spars have the heaviest oxygen isotopic compositions of all components in the Coralville, similar to the isotopically heaviest nonluminescent brachiopods but have [delta][sup 13]C values ranging from [minus]3 to [minus]5 [per thousand]. They are interpreted to have precipitated from marine fluids saturated by CO[sub 2] produced from bacterial oxidation of organic matter. Altered luminescent domains in the bladed spars have the same [delta][sup 13]C compositions, but have widely varying [delta][sup 18]O compositions, ranging to [minus]9 [per thousand].« less

American Airlines Propeller STOL Transport Economic Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ransone, B.

1972-01-01

A Monte Carlo risk analysis on the economics of STOL transports in air passenger traffic established the probability of making the expected internal rate of financial return, or better, in a hypothetical regular Washington/New York intercity operation.

Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies

PubMed Central

Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-01

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture. PMID:27911854

Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Yan; Xu, Min; Zhang, Jin; Zeng, Lingxia; Wang, Yanfei; Zheng, Qing Yin

2014-01-01

Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; P<0.00001). Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78-2.16; P<0.00001). A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.

Risk Factors for Chronic and Recurrent Otitis Media–A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yan; Xu, Min; Zhang, Jin; Zeng, Lingxia; Wang, Yanfei; Zheng, Qing Yin

2014-01-01

Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13–1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13–13.89; P<0.00001). Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78–2.16; P<0.00001). A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06–116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02–1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11–13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria. PMID:24466073

Night Shift Work and Risk of Depression: Meta-analysis of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Lee, Aeyoung; Myung, Seung Kwon; Cho, Jung Jin; Jung, Yu Jin; Yoon, Jong Lull; Kim, Mee Young

2017-07-01

This study aimed to assess whether night shift work is associated with the risk of depression by using a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in August, 2016 to locate eligible studies and investigated the association between night shift work and the risk of depression, reporting outcome measures with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the meta-analysis of a total of 11 observational studies with 9 cross-sectional study, 1 longitudinal study, and 1 cohort study, night shift work was significantly associated with an increased risk of depression (OR/RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24-1.64; I² = 78.0%). Also, subgroup meta-analyses by gender, night shift work duration, type of occupation, continent, and type of publication showed that night shift work was consistently associated with the increased risk of depression. The current meta-analysis suggests that night shift work is associated with the increased risk of depression. However, further large prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm this association. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Oil-spill risk analysis: Cook inlet outer continental shelf lease sale 149. Volume 1. The analysis. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.; Anderson, C.M.

1994-08-01

This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis (OSRA) conducted for the proposed lower Cook Inlet Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Lease Sale 149. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative oil-spill risks associated with oil and gas production from the leasing alternatives proposed for the lease sale. The Minerals Management Service (MMS) will consider the analysis in the environmental impact statement (EIS) prepared for the lease sale. The analysis for proposed OCS Lease Sale 149 was conducted in three parts corresponding to different aspects of the overall problem. The first part dealt with the probability of oil-spillmore » occurrence. The second dealt with trajectories of oil spills from potential spill sites to various environmental resources or land segments. The third part combined the results of the first two parts to give estimates of the overall oil-spill risk if there is oil production as a result of the lease sale. To aid the analysis, conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities of spill contact were generated for each environmental resource or land segment in the study area (see vol. 2).« less

Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

2016-01-01

Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09–1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13–1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias—cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40–5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01–1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

Calcium Intake and the Risk of Ovarian Cancer: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Song, Xingxing; Li, Zongyao; Ji, Xinqiang; Zhang, Dongfeng

2017-06-30

Several epidemiological studies have evaluated the association between calcium intake and the risk of ovarian cancer. However, the results of these studies remain controversial. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis to explore the association between calcium intake and the risk of ovarian cancer. Pubmed, Embase and Web of Science were searched for eligible publications up to April 2017. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the random-effects model. Small-study effect was estimated using Egger's test and the funnel plot. Among 15 epidemiological studies involving 493,415 participants and 7453 cases eligible for this meta-analysis, 13 studies were about dietary calcium intake, 4 studies about dairy calcium intake and 7 studies about dietary plus supplemental calcium intake. When comparing the highest with the lowest intake, the pooled RRs of ovarian cancer were 0.80 (95% CI 0.72-0.89) for dietary calcium, 0.80 (95% CI 0.66-0.98) for dairy calcium and 0.90 (95% CI 0.65-1.24) for dietary plus supplemental calcium, respectively. Dietary calcium was significantly associated with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer among cohort studies (RR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.74-0.99) and among case-control studies ( RR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.64-0.89). In subgroup analysis by ovarian cancer subtypes, we found a statistically significant association between the dietary calcium ( RR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.69-0.88) and the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). This meta-analysis indicated that increased calcium intake might be inversely associated with the risk of ovarian cancer; this still needs to be confirmed by larger prospective cohort studies.

Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.

PubMed

Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

2016-01-01

Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.

Risk and value analysis of SETI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Billingham, J.

1990-01-01

This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

Risk and value analysis of SETI.

PubMed

Billingham, J

1990-01-01

This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

Risk Factors of Mortality from All Asbestos-Related Diseases: A Competing Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Abós-Herràndiz, Rafael; Rodriguez-Blanco, Teresa; Garcia-Allas, Isabel; Rosell-Murphy, Isabel-Magdalena; Albertí-Casas, Constança; Tarrés, Josep; Krier-Günther, Illona; Martinez-Artés, Xavier; Orriols, Ramon; Grimau-Malet, Isidre; Canela-Soler, Jaume

2017-01-01

The mortality from all malignant and nonmalignant asbestos-related diseases remains unknown. The authors assessed the incidence and risk factors for all asbestos-related deaths. The sample included 544 patients from an asbestos-exposed community in the area of Barcelona (Spain), between Jan 1, 1970, and Dec 31, 2006. Competing risk regression through a subdistribution hazard analysis was used to estimate risk factors for the outcomes. Asbestos-related deaths were observed in 167 (30.7%) patients and 57.5% of these deaths were caused by some type of mesothelioma. The incidence rate after diagnosis was 3,600 per 100,000 person-years. In 7.5% of patients death was non-asbestos-related, while pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma were identified in 87 (16.0%) and 18 (3.3%) patients, respectively. Age, sex, household exposure, cumulative nonmalignant asbestos-related disease, and single malignant pathology were identified as risk factors for asbestos-related death. These findings suggest the need to develop a preventive approach to the community and to improve the clinical follow-up process of these patients.

Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

PubMed

Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

2010-12-01

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

2018-03-01

Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yuan

2018-04-01

GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

Vitamin E and risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Yufei; Jiang, Wenjie; Xie, Zhutian; Wu, Wenlong; Zhang, Dongfeng

2015-10-01

We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between vitamin E and age-related cataract (ARC). The fixed- or random-effect model was selected based on heterogeneity. Meta-regression was used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's test. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model. Relevant studies were identified by a search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library to May 2014, without language restrictions. Studies involved samples of people of all ages. Dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high serum tocopherol levels were significantly associated with decreased risk of ARC, the pooled relative risk was 0·73 (95% CI 0·58, 0·92), 0·86 (95% CI 0·75, 0·99) and 0·77 (95% CI 0·66, 0·91), respectively. Supplemental vitamin E intake was non-significantly associated with ARC risk (relative risk=0·92; 95% CI 0·78, 1·07). The findings from dose-response analysis showed evidence of a non-linear association between dietary vitamin E intake and ARC. The risk of ARC decreased with dietary vitamin E intake from 7 mg/d (relative risk=0·94; 95% CI 0·90, 0·97). The findings of the meta-analysis indicated that dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high level of serum tocopherol might be significantly associated with reduced ARC risk.

Residual-strength tests of L-1011 vertical fin components after 10 and 20 years of simulated flight service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopez, O. F.

1984-01-01

Part of the NASA/ACEE Program was to determine the effect of long-term durability testing on the residual strength of graphite-epoxy cover panel and spar components of the Lockheed L-1011 aircraft vertical stabilizer. The results of these residual strength tests are presented herein. The structural behavior and failure mode of both cover panel and spar components were addressed, and the test results obtained were compared with the static test results generated by Lockheed. The effect of damage on one of the spar specimens was described.

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene polymorphism and risk of chronic myelogenous leukemia: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Chen; Yichao, Jin; Jiaxin, Lin; Yueting, Zhang; Qin, Lu; Tonghua, Yang

2015-01-01

Reported evidence supports a role for methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) in the risk of chronic myelogenous leykemia (CML). However, these reports arrived at non-conclusive and even conflicting results regarding the association between two common MTHFR polymorphisms (C677T and A1298C) and CML risk. Thus, a meta-analysis was carried out to clarify a more precise association between these two polymorphisms and the CML risk by updating the available publications. Pooled odds ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and stratification analysis were performed to estimate the relationship between MTHFR polymorphisms and the risk of CML under different genetic comparison models. Data from the meta-analysis showed no significant association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and CML risk. However, significant associations were found between MTHFR A1298C variants and CML risk under homozygous comparison model (CC vs AA, OR=1.62, 95% CI=1.11-2.36, p=0.01) and dominant comparison model (CC+AC vs AA, OR=1.68, 95% CI=1.17-2.43, p=0.005) in overall population; especially more obvious impacts were noticed for Asian populations in subgroup analysis for homozygous model (CC vs AA, OR=2.00, 95% CI=1.25-3.21, p=0.004) and dominant model (CC+AC vs AA, OR=2.49, 95% CI=1.42-4.36, p=0.001), but this did not apply in Caucasian populations. The results of this meta-analysis suggested no significant association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and CML risk, while an increased CML risk was noticed for 1298C variant carriers, especially in Asian populations but not in Caucasian populations, which suggested ethnicity differences between MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms and risk of CML.

Lung Cancer Risk in Painters: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Guha, Neela; Merletti, Franco; Steenland, Nelson Kyle; Altieri, Andrea; Cogliano, Vincent; Straif, Kurt

2010-01-01

Objective We conducted a meta-analysis to quantitatively compare the association between occupation as a painter and the incidence or mortality from lung cancer. Data sources PubMed and the reference lists of pertinent publications were searched and reviewed. For the meta-analysis, we used data from 47 independent cohort, record linkage, and case–control studies (from a total of 74 reports), including > 11,000 incident cases or deaths from lung cancer among painters. Data extraction Three authors independently abstracted data and assessed study quality. Data synthesis The summary relative risk (meta-RR, random effects) for lung cancer in painters was 1.35 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.29–1.41; 47 studies] and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.21–1.51; 27 studies) after controlling for smoking. The relative risk was higher in never-smokers (meta-RR = 2.00; 95% CI, 1.09–3.67; 3 studies) and persisted when restricted to studies that adjusted for other occupational exposures (meta-RR = 1.57; 95% CI, 1.21–2.04; 5 studies). The results remained robust when stratified by study design, sex, and study location and are therefore unlikely due to chance or bias. Furthermore, exposure–response analyses suggested that the risk increased with duration of employment. Conclusion These results support the conclusion that occupational exposures in painters are causally associated with the risk of lung cancer. PMID:20064777

The risk factors for avian influenza on poultry farms: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Youming; Li, Peng; Wu, Yangli; Sun, Xiangdong; Yu, Kangzhen; Yu, Chuanhua; Qin, Aijian

2014-11-01

Avian influenza is a severe threat both to humans and poultry, but so far, no systematic review on the identification and evaluation of the risk factors of avian influenza infection has been published. The objective of this meta-analysis is to provide evidence for decision-making and further research on AI prevention through identifying the risk factors associated with AI infection on poultry farms. The results from 15 selected studies on risk factors for AI infections on poultry farms were analyzed quantitatively by meta-analysis. Open water source (OR=2.89), infections on nearby farms (OR=4.54), other livestock (OR=1.90) and disinfection of farm (OR=0.54) have significant association with AI infection on poultry farms. The subgroup analysis results indicate that there exist different risk factors for AI infections in different types of farms. The main risk factors for AI infection in poultry farms are environmental conditions (open water source, infections on nearby farms), keeping other livestock on the same farm and no disinfection of the farm. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Categorizing accident sequences in the external radiotherapy for risk analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Purpose This study identifies accident sequences from the past accidents in order to help the risk analysis application to the external radiotherapy. Materials and Methods This study reviews 59 accidental cases in two retrospective safety analyses that have collected the incidents in the external radiotherapy extensively. Two accident analysis reports that accumulated past incidents are investigated to identify accident sequences including initiating events, failure of safety measures, and consequences. This study classifies the accidents by the treatments stages and sources of errors for initiating events, types of failures in the safety measures, and types of undesirable consequences and the number of affected patients. Then, the accident sequences are grouped into several categories on the basis of similarity of progression. As a result, these cases can be categorized into 14 groups of accident sequence. Results The result indicates that risk analysis needs to pay attention to not only the planning stage, but also the calibration stage that is committed prior to the main treatment process. It also shows that human error is the largest contributor to initiating events as well as to the failure of safety measures. This study also illustrates an event tree analysis for an accident sequence initiated in the calibration. Conclusion This study is expected to provide sights into the accident sequences for the prospective risk analysis through the review of experiences. PMID:23865005

Segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voss, A; Fischer, C; Schroeder, R; Figulla, H R; Goernig, M

2010-01-01

The prognostic value of heart rate variability in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is limited and does not contribute to risk stratification although the dynamics of ventricular repolarization differs considerably between DCM patients and healthy subjects. Neither linear nor nonlinear methods of heart rate variability analysis could discriminate between patients at high and low risk for sudden cardiac death. The aim of this study was to analyze the suitability of the new developed segmented Poincaré plot analysis (SPPA) to enhance risk stratification in DCM. In contrast to the usual applied Poincaré plot analysis the SPPA retains nonlinear features from investigated beat-to-beat interval time series. Main features of SPPA are the rotation of cloud of points and their succeeded variability depended segmentation. Significant row and column probabilities were calculated from the segments and led to discrimination (up to p<0.005) between low and high risk in DCM patients. For the first time an index from Poincaré plot analysis of heart rate variability was able to contribute to risk stratification in patients suffering from DCM.

Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.

PubMed

Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R

2005-11-15

A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.

SSME structural dynamic model development, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foley, M. J.; Wilson, V. L.

1985-01-01

A set of test correlated mathematical models of the SSME High Pressure Oxygen Turbopump (HPOTP) housing and rotor assembly was produced. New analysis methods within the EISI/EAL and SPAR systems were investigated and runstreams for future use were developed. The LOX pump models have undergone extensive modification since the first phase of this effort was completed. The rotor assembly from the original model was abandoned and a new, more detailed model constructed. A description of the new rotor math model is presented. Also, the pump housing model was continually modified as additional test data have become available. This model is documented along with measured test results. Many of the more advanced features of the EAL/SPAR finite element analysis system were exercised. These included the cyclic symmetry option, the macro-element procedures, and the fluid analysis capability. In addition, a new tool was developed that allows an automated analysis of a disjoint structure in terms of its component modes. A complete description of the implementation of the Craig-Bampton method is given along with two worked examples.

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials: Report from an International Workshop on the Role of Alternative Testing Strategies for Advancement: Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shatkin, J. A.; Ong, Kimberly J.; Beaudrie, Christian

The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATSmore » use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article.« less

RAMPART (TM): Risk Assessment Method-Property Analysis and Ranking Tool v.4.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carson, Susan D.; Hunter, Regina L.; Link, Madison D.

RAMPART{trademark}, Risk Assessment Method-property Analysis and Ranking Tool, is a new type of computer software package for the assessment of risk to buildings. RAMPART{trademark} has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA). RAMPART {trademark} has been designed and developed to be a risk-based decision support tool that requires no risk analysis expertise on the part of the user. The RAMPART{trademark} user interface elicits information from the user about the building. The RAMPART{trademark} expert system is a set of rules that embodies GSA corporate knowledge and SNL's risk assessment experience. The RAMPART{trademark} database containsmore » both data entered by the user during a building analysis session and large sets of natural hazard and crime data. RAMPART{trademark} algorithms use these data to assess the risk associated with a given building in the face of certain hazards. Risks arising from five natural hazards (earthquake, hurricane, winter storm, tornado and flood); crime (inside and outside the building); fire and terrorism are calculated. These hazards may cause losses of various kinds. RAMPART{trademark} considers death, injury, loss of mission, loss of property, loss of contents, loss of building use, and first-responder loss. The results of each analysis are presented graphically on the screen and in a written report.« less

Fried food and prostate cancer risk: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lippi, Giuseppe; Mattiuzzi, Camilla

2015-01-01

We performed systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies that investigated the potential association between fried food consumption and prostate cancer risk. Four case-control studies were finally selected for this systematic literature review, totaling 2579 cancer patients and 2277 matched controls. In two of these studies, the larger intake of fried food was associated with a 1.3- to 2.3-fold increased risk of prostate cancer, no significant association was found in another, whereas an inverse relationship was observed in the remaining. The meta-analysis of published data showed that larger intake of fried food was associated with a 35% (95% CI 17-57%) increased risk of prostate cancer. The results of this systematic literature review support the notion that larger intake of fried foods may have a role in increasing the risk of prostate cancer.

Breast Cancer Risk From Modifiable and Non-Modifiable Risk Factors among Women in Southeast Asia: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed

Nindrea, Ricvan Dana; Aryandono, Teguh; Lazuardi, Lutfan

2017-12-28

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine breast cancer risk from modifiable and non-modifiable factors among women in Southeast Asia. Methods: This meta-analysis was performed on research articles on breast cancer risk factors in PubMed, ProQuest and EBSCO databases published between 1997 and October 2017. Pooled odds ratios (OR) are calculated using fixed and random-effect models. Data were processed using Review Manager 5.3 (RevMan 5.3). Results: From a total of 1,211 articles, 15 studies (1 cohort and 14 case control studies) met the criteria for systematic review. Meta-analysis results showed that of the known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer, parity (nulipara) had the highest odd ratio (OR = 1.85 [95% CI 1.47-2.32]) followed by body mass index (overweight) (OR = 1.61 [95% CI 1.43-1.80]) and use of oral contraceptives (OR = 1.27 [95% CI 1.07-1.51]). Of non-modifiable risk factors, family history of breast cancer had the highest odd ratio (OR = 2.53 [95% CI 1.25-5.09]), followed by age (≥ 40 years) (OR = 1.53 [95% CI 1.34-1.76]) and menopausal status (OR = 1.44 [95% CI 1.26-1.65]). Conclusion: This analysis confirmed associations between both modifiable risk factors (parity, body mass index and use of oral contraceptives) and non-modifiable risk factors (family history of breast cancer, age and menopausal status) with breast cancer. Creative Commons Attribution License

Risk analysis and the law: international law, the World Trade Organization, Codex Alimentarius and national legislation.

PubMed

Horton, L R

2001-12-01

This paper discusses the place of risk analysis in international trade from a US perspective, through looking at the activities of the World Trade Organization and the Codex Alimentarius Commission. After examining what the trade agreements say about risk analysis and how international bodies are advancing and using risk analysis, the paper goes on to assess how risk analysis is used at a national level. Finally, recommendations are made for strengthening international food safety initiatives.

Milk, yogurt, and lactose intake and ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Jing; Tang, Wenru; Sang, Lei; Dai, Xiaoli; Wei, Danping; Luo, Ying; Zhang, Jihong

2015-01-01

Inconclusive information for the role of dairy food intake in relation to ovarian cancer risk may associate with adverse effects of lactose, which has been hypothesized to increase gonadotropin levels in animal models and ecological studies. Up to now, several studies have indicated the association between dairy food intake and risk of ovarian cancer, but no identified founding was reported. We performed this meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of the association between dairy food intake and ovarian cancer risk. Using the data from 19 available publications, we examined dairy food including low-fat/skim milk, whole milk, yogurt and lactose in relation to risk of ovarian cancer by meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to assess the association. We observed a slightly increased risk of ovarian cancer with high intake of whole milk, but has no statistical significance (OR = 1.228, 95% CI = 1.031-1.464, P = 0.022). The results of other milk models did not provide evidence of positive association with ovarian cancer risk. This meta-analysis suggests that low-fat/skim milk, whole milk, yogurt and lactose intake has no associated with increased risk of ovarian cancer. Further studies with larger participants worldwide are needed to validate the association between dairy food intake and ovarian cancer.

Practical, transparent prospective risk analysis for the clinical laboratory.

PubMed

Janssens, Pim Mw

2014-11-01

Prospective risk analysis (PRA) is an essential element in quality assurance for clinical laboratories. Practical approaches to conducting PRA in laboratories, however, are scarce. On the basis of the classical Failure Mode and Effect Analysis method, an approach to PRA was developed for application to key laboratory processes. First, the separate, major steps of the process under investigation are identified. Scores are then given for the Probability (P) and Consequence (C) of predefined types of failures and the chances of Detecting (D) these failures. Based on the P and C scores (on a 10-point scale), an overall Risk score (R) is calculated. The scores for each process were recorded in a matrix table. Based on predetermined criteria for R and D, it was determined whether a more detailed analysis was required for potential failures and, ultimately, where risk-reducing measures were necessary, if any. As an illustration, this paper presents the results of the application of PRA to our pre-analytical and analytical activities. The highest R scores were obtained in the stat processes, the most common failure type in the collective process steps was 'delayed processing or analysis', the failure type with the highest mean R score was 'inappropriate analysis' and the failure type most frequently rated as suboptimal was 'identification error'. The PRA designed is a useful semi-objective tool to identify process steps with potential failures rated as risky. Its systematic design and convenient output in matrix tables makes it easy to perform, practical and transparent. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

PubMed

Boenke, A

2001-12-01

The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

Calcium Intake and the Risk of Ovarian Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Song, Xingxing; Li, Zongyao; Ji, Xinqiang; Zhang, Dongfeng

2017-01-01

Several epidemiological studies have evaluated the association between calcium intake and the risk of ovarian cancer. However, the results of these studies remain controversial. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis to explore the association between calcium intake and the risk of ovarian cancer. Pubmed, Embase and Web of Science were searched for eligible publications up to April 2017. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the random-effects model. Small-study effect was estimated using Egger’s test and the funnel plot. Among 15 epidemiological studies involving 493,415 participants and 7453 cases eligible for this meta-analysis, 13 studies were about dietary calcium intake, 4 studies about dairy calcium intake and 7 studies about dietary plus supplemental calcium intake. When comparing the highest with the lowest intake, the pooled RRs of ovarian cancer were 0.80 (95% CI 0.72–0.89) for dietary calcium, 0.80 (95% CI 0.66–0.98) for dairy calcium and 0.90 (95% CI 0.65–1.24) for dietary plus supplemental calcium, respectively. Dietary calcium was significantly associated with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer among cohort studies (RR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.74–0.99) and among case-control studies (RR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.64–0.89). In subgroup analysis by ovarian cancer subtypes, we found a statistically significant association between the dietary calcium (RR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.69–0.88) and the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). This meta-analysis indicated that increased calcium intake might be inversely associated with the risk of ovarian cancer; this still needs to be confirmed by larger prospective cohort studies. PMID:28665326

Risk factors for baclofen pump infection in children: a multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Spader, Heather S; Bollo, Robert J; Bowers, Christian A; Riva-Cambrin, Jay

2016-06-01

OBJECTIVE Intrathecal baclofen infusion systems to manage severe spasticity and dystonia are associated with higher infection rates in children than in adults. Factors unique to this population, such as poor nutrition and physical limitations for pump placement, have been hypothesized as the reasons for this disparity. The authors assessed potential risk factors for infection in a multivariate analysis. METHODS Patients who underwent implantation of a programmable pump and intrathecal catheter for baclofen infusion at a single center between January 1, 2000, and March 1, 2012, were identified in this retrospective cohort study. The primary end point was infection. Potential risk factors investigated included preoperative (i.e., demographics, body mass index [BMI], gastrostomy tube, tracheostomy, previous spinal fusion), intraoperative (i.e., surgeon, antibiotics, pump size, catheter location), and postoperative (i.e., wound dehiscence, CSF leak, and number of revisions) factors. Univariate analysis was performed, and a multivariate logistic regression model was created to identify independent risk factors for infection. RESULTS A total of 254 patients were evaluated. The overall infection rate was 9.8%. Univariate analysis identified young age, shorter height, lower weight, dehiscence, CSF leak, and number of revisions within 6 months of pump placement as significantly associated with infection. Multivariate analysis identified young age, dehiscence, and number of revisions as independent risk factors for infection. CONCLUSIONS Young age, wound dehiscence, and number of revisions were independent risk factors for infection in this pediatric cohort. A low BMI and the presence of either a gastrostomy or tracheostomy were not associated with infection and may not be contraindications for this procedure.

Source-to-Sink constraints on tectonic and sedimentary evolution of the Central Range, Cenderawasih Bay (Indonesia) and Gulf of Papua (Papua New Guinea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babault, J.; Viaplana-Muzas, M.; Legrand, X.; Van Den Driessche, J.; González-Quijano, M.; Mudd, S. M.; Kergaravat, C.; Ringenbach, J. C.; Callot, J. P.; Vetel, W.; Dhont, D.

2017-12-01

The island of Papua New Guinea is the result of continent-arc collision that began building the island's Central Range during the late Miocene. The tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Cenderawasih Bay, in the northwestern part of the island of Papua New Guinea (Indonesia), which links the Kepala Burung block to the Central Range is still poorly understood. Previous studies have shown that this bay contains a thick (> 8 km) sequence of undated sediments. Hypothesis claim that the embayment resulted from a 3 Ma aperture created by anticlockwise rotation of the Kepala Burung block with respect to the northern rim of the Australian plate, or from the southwest drift of a slice of volcanics/oceanic crust between 8 and 6 Ma. Using a source-to-sink approach, based on i) a geomorphologic analysis of the drainage network dynamics, ii) a reassessment of available thermochronological data, and iii) seismic lines interpretation, we suggest that sediments started to accumulate in the Cenderawasih Bay and onshore in the Waipoga Basin in the late Miocene since the beginning of the Central Range building at 12 Ma, resulting in sediment accumulation of up to 12200 m. At first order, we predict that infilling is mainly composed of siliciclastics sourced in the graphite-bearing Ruffaer Metamorphic Belt and its equivalent in the Weyland Overthrust. From the unroofing paths in the Central Range we deduce two rates of solid phase accumulation (SPAR) since 12 Ma, the first one at a mean SPAR ranging between 0.12-0.25 mm/a with a maximum SPAR of 0.23-0.58 mm/a, and the second during the last 3 Ma, at a mean SPAR ranging between 0.93-1.62 mm/a and with a maximum SPAR between 2.13-3.17 mm/a, i.e., 6700-10000 m of Plio-Pleistocene sediment accumulation. Local transtensional tectonics may explain these unusually high rates of sedimentation in an overall sinistral oblique convergence setting. We further extended this approach to the Gulf of Papua (Papua New Guinea), a foreland basin developed

Dose-Dependent Associations between Wine Drinking and Breast Cancer Risk - Meta-Analysis Findings.

PubMed

Chen, Jia-Yan; Zhu, Hong-Cheng; Guo, Qing; Shu, Zheng; Bao, Xu-Hui; Sun, Feng; Qin, Qin; Yang, Xi; Zhang, Chi; Cheng, Hong-Yan; Sun, Xin-Chen

2016-01-01

To investigate any potential association between wine and breast cancer risk. We quantitatively assessed associations by conducting a meta-analysis based on evidence from observational studies. In May 2014, we performed electronic searches in PubMed, EmBase and the Cochrane Library to identify studies examining the effect of wine drinking on breast cancer incidence. The relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR) were used to measure any such association. The analysis was further stratified by confounding factors that could influence the results. A total of twenty-six studies (eight case-control and eighteen cohort studies) involving 21,149 cases were included in our meta-analysis. Our study demonstrated that wine drinking was associated with breast cancer risk. A 36% increase in breast cancer risk was observed across overall studies based on the highest versus lowest model, with a combined RR of 1.0059 (95%CI 0.97-1.05) in dose-response analysis. However, 5 g/d ethanol from wine seemed to have protective value from our non-linear model. Our findings indicate that wine drinking is associated with breast cancer risk in a dose-dependent manner. High consumption of wine contributes to breast cancer risk with protection exerted by low doses. Further investigations are needed for clarification.

Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Hua, Xiaoli; Yu, Lili; You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu

2016-01-01

Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68-0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50-0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58-0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71-1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger's test (p = 0.26). This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted.

Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu

2016-01-01

Background Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. Methods We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Results Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50–0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58–0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71–1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger’s test (p = 0.26). Conclusions This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted. PMID:26960146

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Colorectal Cancer Risk-A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Godos, Justyna; Hébert, James R; Wirth, Michael D; Piuri, Gabriele; Speciani, Attilio F; Grosso, Giuseppe

2017-09-20

Diet and chronic inflammation of the colon have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). The possible link between inflammatory potential of diet, measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII ® ), and CRC has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from nine studies were eligible, of which five were case-control and four were cohort studies. Results from meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII scores, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CRC. Individuals in the highest versus the lowest (reference) DII category showed an overall 40% increased risk of CRC with moderate evidence of heterogeneity [relative risk (RR) = 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.26, 1.55; I ² = 69%, p < 0.001]. When analyzed as a continuous variable, results showed an increased risk of CRC of 7% for a 1-point increase in the DII score. Results remained unchanged when analyses were restricted to the four prospective studies. Results of our meta-analysis support the importance of adopting a healthier anti-inflammatory diet in preventing CRC. These results further substantiate the utility of DII as tool to characterize the inflammatory potential of diet and to predict CRC.

Hazards and occupational risk in hard coal mines - a critical analysis of legal requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Marcin

2017-11-01

This publication concerns the problems of occupational safety and health in hard coal mines, the basic elements of which are the mining hazards and the occupational risk. The work includes a comparative analysis of selected provisions of general and industry-specific law regarding the analysis of hazards and occupational risk assessment. Based on a critical analysis of legal requirements, basic assumptions regarding the practical guidelines for occupational risk assessment in underground coal mines have been proposed.

Dietary Cholesterol Intake and Risk of Lung Cancer: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Lin, Xiaojing; Liu, Lingli; Fu, Youyun; Gao, Jing; He, Yunyun; Wu, Yang; Lian, Xuemei

2018-02-08

Multiple epidemiologic studies have evaluated the relationship between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk, but the association is controversial and inconclusive. A meta-analysis of case-control studies and cohort studies was conducted to evaluate the relationship between dietary cholesterol intake and lung cancer risk in this study. A relevant literature search up to October 2017 was performed in Web of Science, PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Sinomed, and VIP Journal Integration Platform. Ten case-control studies and six cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis, and the risk estimates were pooled using either fixed or random effects models. The case-control studies with a total of 6894 lung cancer cases and 29,736 controls showed that dietary cholesterol intake was positively associated with lung cancer risk (Odds Ratio = 1.70, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.43-2.03). However, there was no evidence of an association between dietary cholesterol intake and risk of lung cancer among the 241,920 participants and 1769 lung cancer cases in the cohort studies (Relative Risk = 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.94-1.25). Due to inconsistent results from case-control and cohort studies, it is difficult to draw any conclusion regarding the effects of dietary cholesterol intake on lung cancer risk. Carefully designed and well-conducted cohort studies are needed to identify the association between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk.

Analysis of risk factors in the development of retinopathy of prematurity.

PubMed

Knezević, Sanja; Stojanović, Nadezda; Oros, Ana; Savić, Dragana; Simović, Aleksandra; Knezević, Jasmina

2011-01-01

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a multifactorial disease that occurs most frequently in very small and very sick preterm infants, and it has been identified as the major cause of childhood blindness. The aim of this study was to evaluate ROP incidence and risk factors associated with varying degrees of illness. The study was conducted at the Centre for Neonatology, Paediatric Clinic of the Clinical Centre Kragujevac, Serbia, in the period from June 2006 to December 2008. Ophthalmologic screening was performed in all children with body weight lower than 2000 g or gestational age lower than 36 weeks. We analyzed eighteen postnatal and six perinatal risk factors and the group correlations for each of the risk factors. Out of 317 children that were screened, 56 (17.7%) developed a mild form of ROP, while 68 (21.5%) developed a severe form. Univariate analysis revealed a large number of statistically significant risk factors for the development of ROP, especially the severe form. Multivariate logistical analysis further separated two independent risk factors: small birth weight (p = 0.001) and damage of central nervous system (p = 0.01). Independent risk factors for transition from mild to severe forms of ROP were identified as: small birth weight (p = 0.05) and perinatal risk factors (p = 0.02). Small birth weight and central nervous system damage were risk factors for the development of ROP, perinatal risk factors were identified as significant for transition from mild to severe form of ROP.

Fruit and vegetable intake and prostate cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Meng, Hongzhou; Hu, Wenyi; Chen, Zhaodian; Shen, Yuehong

2014-06-01

Recent reports have examined the effect of fruit and vegetable intake on the risk of prostate cancer, but the results are inconsistent. A meta-analysis of prospective studies was conducted to arrive at quantitative conclusions about the contribution of vegetable and fruit intake to the incidence of prostate cancer. A comprehensive, systematic search of medical literature published up to June 2012 was performed to identify relevant studies. Separate meta-analyses were conducted for fruit and vegetable consumption. The presence of publication bias was assessed using Egger and Begg tests. In total, 16 cohort studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. The combined adjusted relative risk comparing highest with lowest categories showed that there was no association between vegetable and fruit consumption and prostate cancer incidence. The pooled relative risk was 0.97 (95%CI 0.93, 1.01) for vegetables and 1.02 (95%CI 0.98, 1.07) for fruit. There is no heterogeneity between the studies. No publication bias was detected. This meta-analysis suggests that total fruit or vegetable consumption may not exert a protective role in the risk of prostate cancer. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Working session 5: Operational aspects and risk analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cizelj, L.; Donoghue, J.

1997-02-01

A general observation is that both operational aspects and risk analysis cannot be adequately discussed without information presented in other sessions. Some overlap of conclusions and recommendations is therefore to be expected. Further, it was assumed that recommendations concerning improvements in some related topics were generated by other sessions and are not repeated here. These include: (1) Knowledge on degradation mechanisms (initiation, progression, and failure). (2) Modeling of degradation (initiation, progression, and failure). (3) Capabilities of NDE methods. (4) Preventive maintenance and repair. One should note here, however, that all of these directly affect both operational and risk aspects ofmore » affected plants. A list of conclusions and recommendations is based on available presentations and discussions addressing risk and operational experience. The authors aimed at reaching as broad a consensus as possible. It should be noted here that there is no strict delineation between operational and safety aspects of degradation of steam generator tubes. This is caused by different risk perceptions in different countries/societies. The conclusions and recommendations were divided into four broad groups: human reliability; leakage monitoring; risk impact; and consequence assessment.« less

78 FR 69604 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-20

... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' and its information collection... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food.'' IV. How To...

Risk of malignancy in ankylosing spondylitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Deng, Chuiwen; Li, Wenli; Fei, Yunyun; Li, Yongzhe; Zhang, Fengchun

2016-08-18

Current knowledge about the overall and site-specific risk of malignancy associated with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to address this knowledge gap. Five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, the Cochrane library and the virtual health library) were systematically searched. A manual search of publications within the last 2 years in key journals in the field (Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases, Rheumatology and Arthritis &rheumatology) was also performed. STATA 11.2 software was used to conduct the meta-analysis. After screening, twenty-three studies, of different designs, were eligible for meta-analysis. AS is associated with a 14% (pooled RR 1.14; 95% CI 1.03-1.25) increase in the overall risk for malignancy. Compared to controls, patients with AS are at a specific increased risk for malignancy of the digestive system (pooled RR 1.20; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.42), multiple myelomas (pooled RR 1.92; 95% CI 1.37 to 3.69) and lymphomas (pooled RR 1.32; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.57). On subgroup analysis, evidence from high quality cohort studies indicated that AS patients from Asia are at highest risk for malignancy overall. Confirmation of findings from large-scale longitudinal studies is needed to identify specific risk factors and to evaluate treatment effects.

The concept of antifragility and its implications for the practice of risk analysis.

PubMed

Aven, Terje

2015-03-01

Nassim Taleb's antifragile concept has been shown considerable interest in the media and on the Internet recently. For Taleb, the antifragile concept is a blueprint for living in a black swan world (where surprising extreme events may occur), the key being to love variation and uncertainty to some degree, and thus also errors. The antonym of "fragile" is not robustness or resilience, but "please mishandle" or "please handle carelessly," using an example from Taleb when referring to sending a package full of glasses by post. In this article, we perform a detailed analysis of this concept, having a special focus on how the antifragile concept relates to common ideas and principles of risk management. The article argues that Taleb's antifragile concept adds an important contribution to the current practice of risk analysis by its focus on the dynamic aspects of risk and performance, and the necessity of some variation, uncertainties, and risk to achieve improvements and high performance at later stages. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a

Prenatal antibiotic use and risk of childhood wheeze/asthma: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhao, Desheng; Su, Hong; Cheng, Jian; Wang, Xu; Xie, Mingyu; Li, Kesheng; Wen, Liying; Yang, Huihui

2015-12-01

Existing body of knowledge suggests that antibiotic use during pregnancy was inconsistently associated with childhood wheeze/asthma. The aim of this study was to determine whether exposure to antibiotic during pregnancy could increase the risk for childhood wheeze/asthma using a comprehensive meta-analysis. PubMed, MEDLINE, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were systematically searched for studies up to September 10, 2014, and additional studies were found by searching reference lists of relevant articles. For this meta-analysis, cohort studies and case-control studies assessing the association between antibiotic use during pregnancy and risk of childhood wheeze/asthma were included. Extracted data were mainly pooled using random-effects model. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale (NOS). Ten studies were identified in final analysis. Pooling analysis of these studies showed an OR of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.13-1.27) for wheeze/asthma. After excluding case-control studies and prospective studies without achieving high scores on the NOS, the pooled OR was 1.18 (95% CI, 1.11-1.26). We found the risk of antibiotic use and pooled ORs of wheeze/asthma were 1.09 (95% CI, 0.92-1.29) for the first trimester, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.01-1.29) for the second trimester, and 1.33 (95% CI, 1.11-1.60) for the third trimester, respectively. This meta-analysis suggests that antibiotic exposure during pregnancy may increase the risk of wheeze/asthma in childhood. Besides, the risk of developing wheeze/asthma in childhood was marked during last two trimesters of pregnancy. Future studies of large-size and prospective cohorts which adequately address concerns for confounder bias are needed to examine the relationship between antibiotic use and risk of childhood asthma. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of benzodiazepine and risk of cancer: A meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Kim, Hong-Bae; Myung, Seung-Kwon; Park, Yon Chul; Park, Byoungjin

2017-02-01

Several observational epidemiological studies have reported inconsistent results on the association between the use of benzodiazepine and the risk of cancer. We investigated the association by using a meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the bibliographies of relevant articles to locate additional publications in January 2016. Three evaluators independently reviewed and selected eligible studies based on predetermined selection criteria. Of 796 articles meeting our initial criteria, a total of 22 observational epidemiological studies with 18 case-control studies and 4 cohort studies were included in the final analysis. Benzodiazepine use was significantly associated with an increased risk of cancer (odds ratio [OR] or relative risk [RR] 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.21) in a random-effects meta-analysis of all studies. Subgroup meta-analyses by various factors such as study design, type of case-control study, study region, and methodological quality of study showed consistent findings. Also, a significant dose-response relationship was observed between the use of benzodiazepine and the risk of cancer (p for trend <0.01). The current meta-analysis of observational epidemiological studies suggests that benzodiazepine use is associated with an increased risk of cancer. © 2016 UICC.

Dietary fat intake and ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis of epidemiological studies

PubMed Central

Qiu, Wenlong; Lu, Heng; Qi, Yana; Wang, Xiuwen

2016-01-01

Observational studies assessing the association of dietary fat and risk of ovarian cancer yield discrepant results. Pertinent prospective cohort studies were identified by a PubMed search from inception to December 2015. Sixteen independent case-control and nine cohort studies on dietary fat intake were included, with approximately 900,000 subjects in total. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals were pooled using a random effects model. Heterogeneity, sensitivity analysis and publication bias were assessed; subgroup analysis and analysis stratified by EOC histology were conducted. The reported studies showed a significant increase of ovarian cancer risk with high consumption of total-, saturated-, and trans-fats, while serous ovarian cancer was more susceptible to dietary fat consumption than other pathological subtypes. No evidence of positive association between dietary fat intake and ovarian cancer risk was provided by cohort studies. Menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy, body mass index (BMI), and pregnancy times, modified the objective associations. In conclusion, the meta-analysis findings indicate that high consumption of total, saturated and trans-fats increase ovarian cancer risk, and different histological subtypes have different susceptibility to dietary fat. PMID:27119509

78 FR 11611 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-19

... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food.'' FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Domini Bean... Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' with a 120-day comment...

Sweetened carbonated beverage consumption and cancer risk: meta-analysis and review.

PubMed

Boyle, Peter; Koechlin, Alice; Autier, Philippe

2014-09-01

There is speculation on an association between sweetened, carbonated beverage consumption and cancer risk. This study aimed to examine this issue. Over 50 independent estimates of risk were available, 11 for colas specifically. A random-effects meta-analysis was carried out with tests for publication bias performed as well as Higgins and Thompson's I measure of the percentage of heterogeneity between studies that could not be explained by chance. Over all the different sites of cancer, the summary relative risk (SRR), when all 55 independent estimates were considered together, was SRR=1.03 [95% confidence interval (0.96; 1.11)]. When individual cancer sites were considered, there was no significant increase or decrease in the meta-analysis estimate of risk of cancer of the pancreas, bladder, kidney, squamous cell or adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus, colon, gastric cardia, gastric noncardia, prostate, breast, larynx and ovary or of the oral cavity, pharynx or glioma. There was no evidence in a sensitivity analysis from those studies that reported results separately for colas of an associated risk of pancreas cancer [SRR=1.00, 95% confidence interval (0.61; 1.65)]. The results for all other forms of cancers were considerably hampered by poor methodology and small numbers of studies (mainly one report on each cancer site studied). Overall, the findings are reassuring in terms of the association between soft drinks, including colas, and cancer risk, although the quality of many of the studies is quite poor by acceptable, modern standards and no study has been carried out with use of carbonated beverages as a primary hypothesis.

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Cardiovascular Risk and Mortality-A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Godos, Justyna; Hébert, James R; Wirth, Michael D; Piuri, Gabriele; Speciani, Attilio F; Grosso, Giuseppe

2018-02-12

Diet and chronic inflammation have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related mortality. The possible link between the inflammatory potential of diet measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII ® ) and CVD has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from 14 studies were eligible, of which two were case-control, eleven were cohort, and one was cross-sectional. Results from the random-effects meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CVD. Individuals in the highest versus the lowest (reference) DII category showed a 36% increased risk of CVD incidence and mortality, with moderate evidence of heterogeneity (relative risk (RR) = 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 1.57; heterogeneity index I ² = 69%, p < 0.001). When analyzed as a continuous variable, results showed an increased risk of CVD risk and mortality of 8% for each one-point increase in the DII score. Results remained unchanged when analyses were restricted to the prospective studies. Results of our meta-analysis support the importance of adopting a healthier anti-inflammatory diet for preventing CVD incidence and related mortality. In conclusion, a pro-inflammatory diet is associated with increased risk of CVD and CVD mortality. These results further substantiate the utility of DII as tool to characterize the inflammatory potential of diet and to predict CVD incidence and mortality.

Smoking increases the risk of diabetic foot amputation: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Min; Zhang, Wei; Yan, Zhaoli; Yuan, Xiangzhen

2018-02-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that smoking is associated with diabetic foot amputation. However, the currently available results are inconsistent and controversial. Therefore, the present study performed a meta-analysis to systematically review the association between smoking and diabetic foot amputation and to investigate the risk factors of diabetic foot amputation. Public databases, including PubMed and Embase, were searched prior to 29th February 2016. The heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochran's Q statistic and the I 2 statistic, and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated and pooled appropriately. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the stability of the results. In addition, Egger's test was applied to assess any potential publication bias. Based on the research, a total of eight studies, including five cohort studies and three case control studies were included. The data indicated that smoking significantly increased the risk of diabetic foot amputation (OR=1.65; 95% CI, 1.09-2.50; P<0.0001) compared with non-smoking. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the pooled analysis did not vary substantially following the exclusion of any one study. Additionally, there was no evidence of publication bias (Egger's test, t=0.1378; P=0.8958). Furthermore, no significant difference was observed between the minor and major amputation groups in patients who smoked (OR=0.79; 95% CI, 0.24-2.58). The results of the present meta-analysis suggested that smoking is a notable risk factor for diabetic foot amputation. Smoking cessation appears to reduce the risk of diabetic foot amputation.

A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

2014-10-01

Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

Credibility analysis of risk classes by generalized linear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral

2016-06-01

In this paper generalized linear model (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of risk classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible risk classes are interpreted.

Risk analysis of information security in a mobile instant messaging and presence system for healthcare.

PubMed

Bønes, Erlend; Hasvold, Per; Henriksen, Eva; Strandenaes, Thomas

2007-09-01

Instant messaging (IM) is suited for immediate communication because messages are delivered almost in real time. Results from studies of IM use in enterprise work settings make us believe that IM based services may prove useful also within the healthcare sector. However, today's public instant messaging services do not have the level of information security required for adoption of IM in healthcare. We proposed MedIMob, our own architecture for a secure enterprise IM service for use in healthcare. MedIMob supports IM clients on mobile devices in addition to desktop based clients. Security threats were identified in a risk analysis of the MedIMob architecture. The risk analysis process consists of context identification, threat identification, analysis of consequences and likelihood, risk evaluation, and proposals for risk treatment. The risk analysis revealed a number of potential threats to the information security of a service like this. Many of the identified threats are general when dealing with mobile devices and sensitive data; others are threats which are more specific to our service and architecture. Individual threats identified in the risks analysis are discussed and possible counter measures presented. The risk analysis showed that most of the proposed risk treatment measures must be implemented to obtain an acceptable risk level; among others blocking much of the additional functionality of the smartphone. To conclude on the usefulness of this IM service, it will be evaluated in a trial study of the human-computer interaction. Further work also includes an improved design of the proposed MedIMob architecture. 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd

Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

2007-11-01

This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

Specifying the ovarian cancer risk threshold of 'premenopausal risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy' for ovarian cancer prevention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Manchanda, Ranjit; Legood, Rosa; Antoniou, Antonis C; Gordeev, Vladimir S; Menon, Usha

2016-09-01

Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) is the most effective intervention to prevent ovarian cancer (OC). It is only available to high-risk women with >10% lifetime OC risk. This threshold has not been formally tested for cost-effectiveness. To specify the OC risk thresholds for RRSO being cost-effective for preventing OC in premenopausal women. The costs as well as effects of surgical prevention ('RRSO') were compared over a lifetime with 'no RRSO' using a decision analysis model. RRSO was undertaken in premenopausal women >40 years. The model was evaluated at lifetime OC risk levels: 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10%. Costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. Uncertainty in the model was assessed using both deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Outcomes included in the analyses were OC, breast cancer (BC) and additional deaths from coronary heart disease. Total costs and effects were estimated in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); incidence of OC and BC; as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Published literature, Nurses Health Study, British National Formulary, Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines and National Health Service reference costs. The time horizon is lifetime and perspective: payer. Premenopausal RRSO is cost-effective at 4% OC risk (life expectancy gained=42.7 days, ICER=£19 536/QALY) with benefits largely driven by reduction in BC risk. RRSO remains cost-effective at >8.2% OC risk without hormone replacement therapy (ICER=£29 071/QALY, life expectancy gained=21.8 days) or 6%if BC risk reduction=0 (ICER=£27 212/QALY, life expectancy gained=35.3 days). Sensitivity analysis indicated results are not impacted much by costs of surgical prevention or treatment of OC/ BC or cardiovascular disease. However, results were sensitive to RRSO utility scores. Additionally, 37%, 61%, 74%, 84%, 96% and 99.5% simulations on PSA are cost

Wine drinking and epithelial ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Kim, Hee Seung; Shouten, Leo J.; Larsson, Susanna C.; Chung, Hyun Hoon; Kim, Yong Beom; Ju, Woong; Park, Noh Hyun; Song, Yong Sang; Kim, Seung Cheol; Kang, Soon-Beom

2010-01-01

Objective Wine has been the focus in the prevention of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) development because resveratrol abundant in wine has anti-carcinogenic properties. However, epidemiologic results have been heterogenous in the chemopreventive effect of wine on the development of EOC. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis for comparing EOC risk between wine and never drinkers using previous related studies. Methods After extensive search of the literature between January 1986 and December 2008, we analyzed 10 studies (3 cohort and 7 case control studies) with 135,871 women, who included 65,578 of wine and 70,293 of never drinkers. Results In all studies, there was no significant difference in EOC risk between wine and never drinkers (odds ratio [OR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 1.38; random effects). When we performed re-analysis according to the study design, 3 cohort and 7 case control studies showed that there were also no significant differences in EOC risk between wine and never drinkers, respectively (OR, 1.44 and 1.04; 95% CI, 0.74 and 2.82 and 0.88 to 1.22; random effects). In sub-analyses using 2 case-control studies, EOC risk was not different between former and never drinkers (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.87 to 1.44; fixed effect), and between current and former drinkers (OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.41 to 1.34; random effects). Conclusion Although resveratrol, abundantly found in wine, is a promising naturally occurring compound with chemopreventive properties on EOC in preclinical studies, this meta-analysis suggests the epidemiologic evidence shows no association between wine drinking and EOC risk. PMID:20613902

78 FR 24691 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-26

... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' that appeared in... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' with a 120-day...

Extracting and Converting Quantitative Data into Human Error Probabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Jeffrey C. Joe

2007-08-01

This paper discusses a proposed method using a combination of advanced statistical approaches (e.g., meta-analysis, regression, structural equation modeling) that will not only convert different empirical results into a common metric for scaling individual PSFs effects, but will also examine the complex interrelationships among PSFs. Furthermore, the paper discusses how the derived statistical estimates (i.e., effect sizes) can be mapped onto a HRA method (e.g. SPAR-H) to generate HEPs that can then be use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The paper concludes with a discussion of the benefits of using academic literature in assisting HRA analysts in generating sound HEPsmore » and HRA developers in validating current HRA models and formulating new HRA models.« less

Conceptual analyses of extensible booms to support a solar sail

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawford, R. F.; Benton, M. D.

1977-01-01

Extensible booms which could function as the diagonal spars and central mast of an 800 meter square, non-rotating Solar Sailing Vehicle were conceptually designed and analyzed. The boom design concept that was investigated is an extensible lattice boom which is stowed and deployed by elastically coiling and uncoiling its continuous longerons. The seven different free-span lengths in each spar which would minimize the total weights of the spars and mast were determined. Boom weights were calculated by using a semi-empirical formulation which related the overall weight of a boom to the weight of its longerons.

Multiple piece turbine blade/vane

DOEpatents

Kimmel, Keith D

2013-02-05

An air cooled turbine blade or vane of a spar and shell construction with the shell made from a high temperature resistant material that must be formed from an EDM process. The shell and the spar both have a number of hooks extending in a spanwise direction and forming a contact surface that is slanted such that a contact force increases as the engaging hooks move away from one another. The slanted contact surfaces on the hooks provides for an better seal and allows for twisting between the shell and the spar while maintaining a tight fit.

Meta-analysis of the rs2075650 polymorphism and risk of Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

He, Ya; Li, Chen; Yang, Ying; Li, Yizhou; Wang, Yuan; Yang, Hua; Jin, Tianbo; Chen, Songsheng

2016-10-01

Several researchers have suggested that the rs2075650 polymorphism is significantly associated with an increased risk of developing Alzheimer disease (AD) in European. However, some others found inconsistent results in Asian (Chinese and Korean). We addressed the controversy through performing a meta-analysis of the relationship between rs2075650 in TOMM40 (translocase of outer mitochondrial membrane 40 homologue) and Alzheimer disease. We selected eight case-control studies involving 4290 cases of Alzheimer disease and 5556 healthy individuals. The association between the TOMM40 rs2075650 polymorphism and Alzheimer disease was examined by overall odds ratio (OR) with a 95 % confidence interval (CI). We used different genetic model analysis, sensitivity analysis, and assessments of bias in our meta-analysis. The pooled analysis showed the inconsistent results that TOMM40 rs2075650 polymorphism was associated with Alzheimer disease in European and Korean population in all genetic models, but there was no significant association between the TOMM40 rs2075650 polymorphism and Alzheimer disease risk in Chinese population. We conclude that rs2075650 in TOMM40 gene may increase the risk of Alzheimer disease.

The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

[The role of a specialised risk analysis group in the Veterinary Services of a developing country].

PubMed

Urbina-Amarís, M E

2003-08-01

Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was established, risk analysis in trade, and ultimately in Veterinary and Animal Health Services, has become strategically important. Irrespective of their concept (discipline, approach, method, process), all types of risk analysis in trade involve four periods or phases:--risk identification-- risk assessment--risk management--risk information or communication. All veterinarians involved in a risk analysis unit must have in-depth knowledge of statistics and the epidemiology of transmissible diseases, as well as a basic knowledge of veterinary science, economics, mathematics, data processing and social communication, to enable them to work with professionals in these disciplines. Many developing countries do not have enough well-qualified professionnals in these areas to support a risk analysis unit. This will need to be rectified by seeking strategic alliances with other public or private sectors that will provide the required support to run the unit properly. Due to the special nature of its risk analysis functions, its role in supporting decision-making, and the criteria of independence and transparency that are so crucial to its operations, the hierarchical position of the risk analysis unit should be close to the top management of the Veterinary Service. Due to the shortage of personnel in developing countries with the required training and scientific and technical qualifications, countries with organisations responsible for both animal and plant health protection would be advised to set up integrated plant and animal risk analysis units. In addition, these units could take charge of all activities relating to WTO agreements and regional agreements on animal and plant health management.

Lightning protection design and testing of an all composite wet wing for the Egrett

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burrows, B. J. C.; Haigh, S. J.; Chessum, C.; Dunkley, V. P.

1991-01-01

The Egrett aircraft has an all composite wing comprising CFC(carbon fiber composite)/Nomex sandwich skins, full length CFC main spar caps, and GFRP (glass fiber reinforced plastics) main and auxiliary spar webs. It also has short inboard CFC auxiliary spar caps. It has fine aluminum wires woven into the surface for protection. It has an integral fuel tank using the CFC/Nomex skins as the upper and lower tank walls, and lies between the forward auxiliary spar and the forward of the two main spar webs. The fuel tank is not bagged, i.e., it is in effect a wet wing tank. It has conventional capacitive type fuel gauging. The aircraft was cleared to IFR standards and so required full lightning protection and demonstration that it would survive the lightning environment. The lightning protection was designed for the wing (and also for the remainder of the aircraft). An inner wing test samples (which included a part of the fuel tank) were tested as part of the proving program. The protection design and the testing process are described. The intrinsic structural features are indicated that improve lightning protection design and which therefore minimize the weight and cost of any added lightning protection components.

Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.

2003-01-01

A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

Risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after traumatic injury: A competing risks analysis.

PubMed

Van Gent, Jan-Michael; Calvo, Richard Yee; Zander, Ashley L; Olson, Erik J; Sise, C Beth; Sise, Michael J; Shackford, Steven R

2017-12-01

Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is typically reported as a composite measure of the quality of trauma center care. Given that recent data suggesting postinjury DVT and PE are distinct clinical processes, a better understanding may result from analyzing them as independent, competing events. Using competing risks analysis, we evaluated our hypothesis that the risk factors and timing of postinjury DVT and PE are different. We examined all adult trauma patients admitted to our Level I trauma center from July 2006 to December 2011 who received at least one surveillance duplex ultrasound of the lower extremities and who were at high risk or greater for DVT. Outcomes included DVT and PE events, and time-to-event from admission. We used competing risks analysis to evaluate risk factors for DVT while accounting for PE as a competing event, and vice versa. Of 2,370 patients, 265 (11.2%) had at least one venous thromboembolism event, 235 DVT only, 19 PE only, 11 DVT and PE. Within 2 days of admission, 38% of DVT cases had occurred compared with 26% of PE. Competing risks modeling of DVT as primary event identified older age, severe injury (Injury Severity Score, ≥ 15), mechanical ventilation longer than 4 days, active cancer, history of DVT or PE, major venous repair, male sex, and prophylactic enoxaparin and prophylactic heparin as associated risk factors. Modeling of PE as the primary event showed younger age, nonsevere injury (Injury Severity Score, < 15), central line placement, and prophylactic heparin as relevant factors. The risk factors for PE and DVT after injury were different, suggesting that they are clinically distinct events that merit independent consideration. Many DVT events occurred early despite prophylaxis, bringing into question the preventability of postinjury DVT. We recommend trauma center quality reporting program measures be revised to account for DVT and PE as unique events. Epidemiologic

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J

2016-12-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Circulating Selenium and Prostate Cancer Risk: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

PubMed

Yarmolinsky, James; Bonilla, Carolina; Haycock, Philip C; Langdon, Ryan J Q; Lotta, Luca A; Langenberg, Claudia; Relton, Caroline L; Lewis, Sarah J; Evans, David M; Davey Smith, George; Martin, Richard M

2018-05-17

In the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT), selenium supplementation (causing a median 114 μg/L increase in circulating selenium) did not lower overall prostate cancer risk, but increased risk of high-grade prostate cancer and type 2 diabetes. Mendelian randomization analysis uses genetic variants to proxy modifiable risk factors and can strengthen causal inference in observational studies. We constructed a genetic instrument comprising 11 single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly (P < 5 × 10-8) associated with circulating selenium in genome-wide association studies. In a Mendelian randomization analysis of 72 729 men in the PRACTICAL Consortium (44 825 case subjects, 27 904 control subjects), 114 μg/L higher genetically elevated circulating selenium was not associated with prostate cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.89 to 1.13). In concordance with findings from SELECT, selenium was weakly associated with advanced (including high-grade) prostate cancer (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.49) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 0.97 to 1.43; in a type 2 diabetes genome-wide association study meta-analysis with up to 49 266 case subjects and 249 906 control subjects). Our Mendelian randomization analyses do not support a role for selenium supplementation in prostate cancer prevention and suggest that supplementation could have adverse effects on risks of advanced prostate cancer and type 2 diabetes.

Meta-analysis: Does garlic intake reduce risk of gastric cancer?

PubMed

Kodali, R T; Eslick, Guy D

2015-01-01

In the past 2 decades, various epidemiological studies investigated whether garlic can positively modify the risk of gastric cancer. Garlic contains numerous sulfide compounds, including diallyl trisulfide, which have anticarcinogenic properties. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine if garlic intake reduces the risk of gastric cancer. An electronic search of MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE to June 2014 was completed. There were 14 case control studies, 2 randomized controlled studies, and 1 cohort study that fulfilled our inclusion criteria. We used a random effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of gastric cancer with garlic consumption. Meta-analysis of a total of 8,621 cases and 14,889 controls was conducted. Significant variability in duration of garlic intake and reference categories for amount of intake was noted. High, low, and any garlic intake were all associated with reduced risk of gastric cancer. High intake had the most significant risk reduction, OR = 0.49 (95% CI: 0.38-0.62). Heterogeneity was low (I² = 30.85, P = 0.17). A more modest risk reduction was associated with low intake, OR = 0.75 (95% CI: 0.58-0.97). Half of the studies did not separate garlic intake into high or low amounts, intake was only noted as consumption vs. non-consumption. Any amount of consumption still showed a risk reduction similar to low intake, OR = 0.77 (95% CI: 0.60-1.00). Low and any amount of consumption showed moderate heterogeneity (58% and 45%, respectively). Garlic intake appears to be associated with reduced risk of gastric cancer. Further high quality studies are required to confirm this finding and to assess the amount of garlic that needs to be consumed for protective effect.

Translational benchmark risk analysis

PubMed Central

Piegorsch, Walter W.

2010-01-01

Translational development – in the sense of translating a mature methodology from one area of application to another, evolving area – is discussed for the use of benchmark doses in quantitative risk assessment. Illustrations are presented with traditional applications of the benchmark paradigm in biology and toxicology, and also with risk endpoints that differ from traditional toxicological archetypes. It is seen that the benchmark approach can apply to a diverse spectrum of risk management settings. This suggests a promising future for this important risk-analytic tool. Extensions of the method to a wider variety of applications represent a significant opportunity for enhancing environmental, biomedical, industrial, and socio-economic risk assessments. PMID:20953283

Oil-spill risk analysis: Beaufort Sea outer continental shelf lease sale 170. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)