Science.gov

Sample records for analysis risk spar

  1. Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Methodology: Comparisons with other HRA Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Byers, James Clifford; Gertman, David Ira; Hill, Susan Gardiner; Blackman, Harold Stabler; Gentillon, Cynthia Ann; Hallbert, Bruce Perry; Haney, Lon Nolan

    2000-08-01

    The 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology was developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1994 by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). It was decided to revise that methodology for use by the Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) program. The 1994 ASP HRA methodology was compared, by a team of analysts, on a point-by-point basis to a variety of other HRA methods and sources. This paper briefly discusses how the comparisons were made and how the 1994 ASP HRA methodology was revised to incorporate desirable aspects of other methods. The revised methodology was renamed the SPAR HRA methodology.

  2. SPAR reference manual. [for stress analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whetstone, W. D.

    1974-01-01

    SPAR is a system of related programs which may be operated either in batch or demand (teletype) mode. Information exchange between programs is automatically accomplished through one or more direct access libraries, known collectively as the data complex. Card input is command-oriented, in free-field form. Capabilities available in the first production release of the system are fully documented, and include linear stress analysis, linear bifurcation buckling analysis, and linear vibrational analysis.

  3. SPAR improved structure/fluid dynamic analysis capability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oden, J. T.; Pearson, M. L.

    1983-01-01

    The capability of analyzing a coupled dynamic system of flowing fluid and elastic structure was added to the SPAR computer code. A method, developed and adopted for use in SPAR utilizes the existing assumed stress hybrid plan element in SPAR. An operational mode was incorporated in SPAR which provides the capability for analyzing the flaw of a two dimensional, incompressible, viscous fluid within rigid boundaries. Equations were developed to provide for the eventual analysis of the interaction of such fluids with an elastic solid.

  4. Development of Standardized Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Shutdown Operations Integrated in SPAR Level 1 Model

    SciTech Connect

    S. T. Khericha; J. Mitman

    2008-05-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during Modes 4, 5, and 6 at pressurized water reactors and Modes 4 and 5 at boiling water reactors can be significant. This paper describes using the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s full-power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development of risk evaluation models for commercial nuclear power plants. The shutdown models are integrated with their respective internal event at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the SPAR full-power model with shutdown event tree logic. Preliminary human reliability analysis results indicate that risk is dominated by the operator’s ability to correctly diagnose events and initiate systems.

  5. Experiences with a preliminary NICE/SPAR structural analysis system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lotts, C. G.; Greene, W. H.

    1985-01-01

    Development of a new structural analysis system based on the original SPAR finite element code and the NICE system is described. The system is denoted NICE/SPAR. NICE was designed at Lockheed Palo Alto Research Laboratory and contains data management utilities, a command language interpreter, and a command language definition for integrating engineering computational modules. SPAR is a system of programs used for finite element structural analysis developed for NASA by Engineering Information Systems, Inc. It includes many complementary structural analysis and utility functions which communicate through a common database. The work on NICE/SPAR was motivated by requirements for a highly modular and flexible structural analysis system to use as a tool in carrying out research in computational methods and exploring new computer hardware. Analysis examples are presented which demonstrate the benefits gained from a combination of the NICE command language with the SPAR computational modules.

  6. SPAR data set contents. [finite element structural analysis system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cunningham, S. W.

    1981-01-01

    The contents of the stored data sets of the SPAR (space processing applications rocket) finite element structural analysis system are documented. The data generated by each of the system's processors are stored in a data file organized as a library. Each data set, containing a two-dimensional table or matrix, is identified by a four-word name listed in a table of contents. The creating SPAR processor, number of rows and columns, and definitions of each of the data items are listed for each data set. An example SPAR problem using these data sets is also presented.

  7. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for BWR Shutdown Modes 4 and 5 Integrated in SPAR Model

    SciTech Connect

    S. T. Khericha; S. Sancakter; J. Mitman; J. Wood

    2010-06-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during modes 4, 5, and 6 can be significant This paper describes development of the standard template risk evaluation models for shutdown modes 4, and 5 for commercial boiling water nuclear power plants (BWR). The shutdown probabilistic risk assessment model uses full power Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The shutdown PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from SPAR full power model with shutdown event tree logic. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheet, including the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate HEP of interest. The preliminary results indicate the risk is dominated by the operator’s ability to diagnose the events and provide long term cooling.

  8. I&C Modeling in SPAR Models

    SciTech Connect

    John A. Schroeder

    2012-06-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models for the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants currently have very limited instrumentation and control (I&C) modeling [1]. Most of the I&C components in the operating plant SPAR models are related to the reactor protection system. This was identified as a finding during the industry peer review of SPAR models. While the Emergency Safeguard Features (ESF) actuation and control system was incorporated into the Peach Bottom Unit 2 SPAR model in a recent effort [2], various approaches to expend resources for detailed I&C modeling in other SPAR models are investigated.

  9. Analysis of SPAR 8 single-axis levitation experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rush, J. E.; Schafer, C. F.; Holland, R. L.

    1981-01-01

    The melting and resolidification of SPAR 8 payload melting and resolidification of a glass specimen from the in a containerless condition and the retrieval and examination of the specimen from the. The absence of container contact was assured by use of a single-axis acoustic levitation system. However, the sample contacted a wire cage after being held without container contact by the acoustic field for only approximately 87 seconds. At this time, the sample was still molten and, therefore, flowed aroung the wire and continued to adhere to it. An analysis of why the sample did not remain levitated free of container contact is presented. The experiment is described, and experimental observations are discussed and analyzed.

  10. Analytical model and stability analysis of the leading edge spar of a passively morphing ornithopter wing.

    PubMed

    Wissa, Aimy; Calogero, Joseph; Wereley, Norman; Hubbard, James E; Frecker, Mary

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents the stability analysis of the leading edge spar of a flapping wing unmanned air vehicle with a compliant spine inserted in it. The compliant spine is a mechanism that was designed to be flexible during the upstroke and stiff during the downstroke. Inserting a variable stiffness mechanism into the leading edge spar affects its structural stability. The model for the spar-spine system was formulated in terms of the well-known Mathieu's equation, in which the compliant spine was modeled as a torsional spring with a sinusoidal stiffness function. Experimental data was used to validate the model and results show agreement within 11%. The structural stability of the leading edge spar-spine system was determined analytically and graphically using a phase plane plot and Strutt diagrams. Lastly, a torsional viscous damper was added to the leading edge spar-spine model to investigate the effect of damping on stability. Results show that for the un-damped case, the leading edge spar-spine response was stable and bounded; however, there were areas of instability that appear for a range of spine upstroke and downstroke stiffnesses. Results also show that there exist a damping ratio between 0.2 and 0.5, for which the leading edge spar-spine system was stable for all values of spine upstroke and downstroke stiffnesses. PMID:26502210

  11. Analytical model and stability analysis of the leading edge spar of a passively morphing ornithopter wing.

    PubMed

    Wissa, Aimy; Calogero, Joseph; Wereley, Norman; Hubbard, James E; Frecker, Mary

    2015-10-26

    This paper presents the stability analysis of the leading edge spar of a flapping wing unmanned air vehicle with a compliant spine inserted in it. The compliant spine is a mechanism that was designed to be flexible during the upstroke and stiff during the downstroke. Inserting a variable stiffness mechanism into the leading edge spar affects its structural stability. The model for the spar-spine system was formulated in terms of the well-known Mathieu's equation, in which the compliant spine was modeled as a torsional spring with a sinusoidal stiffness function. Experimental data was used to validate the model and results show agreement within 11%. The structural stability of the leading edge spar-spine system was determined analytically and graphically using a phase plane plot and Strutt diagrams. Lastly, a torsional viscous damper was added to the leading edge spar-spine model to investigate the effect of damping on stability. Results show that for the un-damped case, the leading edge spar-spine response was stable and bounded; however, there were areas of instability that appear for a range of spine upstroke and downstroke stiffnesses. Results also show that there exist a damping ratio between 0.2 and 0.5, for which the leading edge spar-spine system was stable for all values of spine upstroke and downstroke stiffnesses.

  12. SPAR Model Structural Efficiencies

    SciTech Connect

    John Schroeder; Dan Henry

    2013-04-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are supporting initiatives aimed at improving the quality of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Included in these initiatives are the resolution of key technical issues that are have been judged to have the most significant influence on the baseline core damage frequency of the NRC’s Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and licensee PRA models. Previous work addressed issues associated with support system initiating event analysis and loss of off-site power/station blackout analysis. The key technical issues were: • Development of a standard methodology and implementation of support system initiating events • Treatment of loss of offsite power • Development of standard approach for emergency core cooling following containment failure Some of the related issues were not fully resolved. This project continues the effort to resolve outstanding issues. The work scope was intended to include substantial collaboration with EPRI; however, EPRI has had other higher priority initiatives to support. Therefore this project has addressed SPAR modeling issues. The issues addressed are • SPAR model transparency • Common cause failure modeling deficiencies and approaches • Ac and dc modeling deficiencies and approaches • Instrumentation and control system modeling deficiencies and approaches

  13. Analysis of 2-spar cantilever wings with special reference to torsion and load transference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhn, Paul

    1936-01-01

    This report deals with the analysis of 2-spar cantilever wings in torsion, taking cognizance of the fact that the spars are not independent, but are interconnected by ribs and other structural members. The principles of interaction are briefly explained, showing that the mutual relief action occurring depends on the "pure torsional stiffness" of the wing cross section. Various practical methods of analysis are outlined. The "Friedrichs-Von Karman equations" are shown to require the least amount of labor. Numerical examples by the several methods of analysis are given and the agreement between the calculation and experiment is shown.

  14. Aeroelastic airfoil smart spar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhalgh, Skott; Pastore, Christopher M.; Garfinkle, Moishe

    1993-01-01

    Aircraft wings and rotor-blades are subject to undesirable bending and twisting excursions that arise from unsteady aerodynamic forces during high speed flight, abrupt maneuvers, or hard landings. These bending excursions can range in amplitude from wing-tip flutter to failure. A continuous-filament construction 'smart' laminated composite box-beam spar is described which corrects itself when subject to undesirable bending excursions or flutter. The load-bearing spar is constructed so that any tendency for the wing or rotor-blade to bend from its normal position is met by opposite twisting of the spar to restore the wing to its normal position. Experimental and theoretical characterization of these spars was made to evaluate the torsion-flexure coupling associated with symmetric lay-ups. The materials used were uniweave AS-4 graphite and a matrix comprised of Shell 8132 resin and U-40 hardener. Experimental tests were conducted on five spars to determine spar twist and bend as a function of load for 0, 17, 30, 45 and 60 deg fiber angle lay-ups. Symmetric fiber lay-ups do exhibit torsion-flexure couplings. Predictions of the twist and bend versus load were made for different fiber orientations in laminated spars using a spline function structural analysis. The analytical results were compared with experimental results for validation. Excellent correlation between experimental and analytical values was found.

  15. An integrated structural strength analysis method for Spar type floating wind turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Zhi-qiang; Liu, Yi; Wang, Jin

    2016-04-01

    An integrated structural strength analysis method for a Spar type floating wind turbine is proposed in this paper, and technical issues related to turbine structure modeling and stress combination are also addressed. The NREL-5MW "Hywind" Spar type wind turbine is adopted as study object. Time-domain dynamic coupled simulations are performed by a fully-coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool, FAST, on the purpose of obtaining the dynamic characteristics of the floating wind turbine, and determining parameters for design load cases of finite element calculation. Then design load cases are identified, and finite element analyses are performed for these design load cases. The structural stresses due to wave-induced loads and wind-induced loads are calculated, and then combined to assess the structural strength of the floating wind turbine. The feasibility of the proposed structural strength analysis method for floating wind turbines is then validated.

  16. Proposed SPAR Modeling Method for Quantifying Time Dependent Station Blackout Cut Sets

    SciTech Connect

    John A. Schroeder

    2010-06-01

    Abstract: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (USNRC’s) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and industry risk models take similar approaches to analyzing the risk associated with loss of offsite power and station blackout (LOOP/SBO) events at nuclear reactor plants. In both SPAR models and industry models, core damage risk resulting from a LOOP/SBO event is analyzed using a combination of event trees and fault trees that produce cut sets that are, in turn, quantified to obtain a numerical estimate of the resulting core damage risk. A proposed SPAR method for quantifying the time-dependent cut sets is sometimes referred to as a convolution method. The SPAR method reflects assumptions about the timing of emergency diesel failures, the timing of subsequent attempts at emergency diesel repair, and the timing of core damage that may be different than those often used in industry models. This paper describes the proposed SPAR method.

  17. The NRC's SPAR Models: Current Status, Future Development, and Modeling Issues

    SciTech Connect

    Robert F. Buell

    2008-09-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) play an increasingly important role in the regulatory framework of the U.S. nuclear power industry. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) relies on a set of plant-specific Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models to provide critical risk-based input to the regulatory process. The Significance Determination Process (SDP), Management Directive 8.3 - NRC Incident Investigation Program, Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) and Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) programs are among the regulatory initiatives that receive significant input from the SPAR models. Other uses of the SPAR models include: Screening & Resolution of Generic Safety Issues, License Amendment reviews and Notice of Enforcement Discretion (NOEDs). This paper presents the current status of SPAR model development activities, future development objectives, and issues related to the development, verification and maintenance of the SPAR models.

  18. Dynamic testing and analysis of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lake, Renee C.; Izapanah, Amir P.; Baucon, Robert M.

    The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist elastic coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars, representative of the primary load carrying structure within a helicopter rotor blade, was manufactured using four plies of woven graphite/epoxy cloth 'prepreg.' These spars were non-circular in cross section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three cross-sectional geometries were developed: square, D-shape, and flattened ellipse. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models developed in MSC/NASTRAN. Five global or 'non-shell' modes were identified within the 0-2000 Hz range for each spar. The frequencies and associated mode shapes for the D-shape spar were correlated with analytical results, showing agreement within 13.8 percent. Frequencies corresponding to the five global mode shapes for the square spar agreed within 9.5 percent of the analytical results. Five global modes were similarly identified for the elliptical spar and agreed within 4.9 percent of the respective analytical results.

  19. Dynamic testing and analysis of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lake, Renee C.; Izapanah, Amir P.; Baucon, Robert M.

    1992-01-01

    The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist elastic coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars, representative of the primary load carrying structure within a helicopter rotor blade, was manufactured using four plies of woven graphite/epoxy cloth 'prepreg.' These spars were non-circular in cross section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three cross-sectional geometries were developed: square, D-shape, and flattened ellipse. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models developed in MSC/NASTRAN. Five global or 'non-shell' modes were identified within the 0-2000 Hz range for each spar. The frequencies and associated mode shapes for the D-shape spar were correlated with analytical results, showing agreement within 13.8 percent. Frequencies corresponding to the five global mode shapes for the square spar agreed within 9.5 percent of the analytical results. Five global modes were similarly identified for the elliptical spar and agreed within 4.9 percent of the respective analytical results.

  20. Substructure analysis using NICE/SPAR and applications of force to linear and nonlinear structures. [spacecraft masts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Razzaq, Zia; Prasad, Venkatesh; Darbhamulla, Siva Prasad; Bhati, Ravinder; Lin, Cai

    1987-01-01

    Parallel computing studies are presented for a variety of structural analysis problems. Included are the substructure planar analysis of rectangular panels with and without a hole, the static analysis of space mast, using NICE/SPAR and FORCE, and substructure analysis of plane rigid-jointed frames using FORCE. The computations are carried out on the Flex/32 MultiComputer using one to eighteen processors. The NICE/SPAR runstream samples are documented for the panel problem. For the substructure analysis of plane frames, a computer program is developed to demonstrate the effectiveness of a substructuring technique when FORCE is enforced. Ongoing research activities for an elasto-plastic stability analysis problem using FORCE, and stability analysis of the focus problem using NICE/SPAR are briefly summarized. Speedup curves for the panel, the mast, and the frame problems provide a basic understanding of the effectiveness of parallel computing procedures utilized or developed, within the domain of the parameters considered. Although the speedup curves obtained exhibit various levels of computational efficiency, they clearly demonstrate the excellent promise which parallel computing holds for the structural analysis problem. Source code is given for the elasto-plastic stability problem and the FORCE program.

  1. Piezoelectric energy harvesting from multifunctional wing spars for UAVs: Part 1. Coupled modeling and preliminary analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erturk, A.; Anton, S. R.; Inman, D. J.

    2009-03-01

    This paper discusses the basic design factors for modifying an original wing spar to a multifunctional load-bearing - energy harvester wing spar. A distributed-parameter electromechanical formulation is given for modeling of a multilayer piezoelectric power generator beam for different combinations of the electrical outputs of piezoceramic layers. In addition to the coupled vibration response and voltage response expressions for a multimorph, strength formulations are given in order to estimate the maximum load input that can be sustained by the cantilevered structure without failure for a given safety factor. Embedding piezoceramics into an original wing spar for power generation tends to reduce the maximum load that can be sustained without failure and increase the total mass due to the brittle nature and large mass densities of typical piezoelectric ceramics. Two case studies are presented for demonstration. The theoretical case study discusses modification of a rectangular wing spar to a 3-layer generator wing spar with a certain restriction on mass addition for fixed dimensions. Power generation and strength analyses are provided using the electromechanical model. The experimental case study considers a 9-layer generator beam with aluminum, piezoceramic, Kapton and epoxy layers and investigates its power generation and load-bearing performances experimentally and analytically. This structure constitutes the main body of the multifunctional self-charging structure concept proposed by the authors. The second part of this work (experiments and storage applications) employs this multi-layer generator along with the thin-film battery layers in order to charge the battery layers using the electrical outputs of the piezoceramic layers.

  2. Study of composite wind turbine spars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zafar, Syed Shahrukh

    This report presents a theoretical, numerical and experimental study of composite wind turbine spars under bending loads. Spars were made from commercially available glass/ carbon fiber material. The spars were composed of uniaxial (0°) flanges and biaxial (+/-45°) shear webs. Items of particular study were co-block polymer additives in vinyl ester resins, a presumably new spar design, and using carbon fiber pultrusions for spar caps (flanges). Composites are very strong and thus tend to be thin, which exacerbates the problem of buckling. Further, fibers also buckle at the micro level, leading to lower effective compression strength than tensile strength of a composite. Many structures tend to buckle in out of plane direction which can cause early and abrupt failure. A 3-point bend test rig was manufactured in-house for experimentally testing composite spars. The experiments indicated abrupt failure without any sign or other form of damage. Limited number of spars was made with slightly different construction. All spars were subjected to same testing environment. Finite element analyses were performed in order to shed light on the failure mechanisms leading to catastrophic failure. The FE code Ansys was used for the analyses. 3D models were developed, loads were applied, and linear elastic static as well as buckling analyses were performed. The results obtained from analysis were in reasonable agreement with the experimental tests.

  3. Peer Review of NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect

    Anthony Koonce; James Knudsen; Robert Buell

    2011-03-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Models underwent a Peer Review using ASME PRA standard (Addendum C) as endorsed by NRC in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.200. The review was performed by a mix of industry probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) experts and NRC PRA experts. Representative SPAR models, one PWR and one BWR, were reviewed against Capability Category I of the ASME PRA standard. Capability Category I was selected as the basis for review due to the specific uses/applications of the SPAR models. The BWR SPAR model was reviewed against 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements; however, based on the Capability Category I level of review and the absence of internal flooding and containment performance (LERF) logic only 216 requirements were determined to be applicable. Based on the review, the BWR SPAR model met 139 of the 216 supporting requirements. The review also generated 200 findings or suggestions. Of these 200 findings and suggestions 142 were findings and 58 were suggestions. The PWR SPAR model was also evaluated against the same 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements. Of these requirements only 215 were deemed appropriate for the review (for the same reason as noted for the BWR). The PWR review determined that 125 of the 215 supporting requirements met Capability Category I or greater. The review identified 101 findings or suggestions (76 findings and 25 suggestions). These findings or suggestions were developed to identify areas where SPAR models could be enhanced. A process to prioritize and incorporate the findings/suggestions supporting requirements into the SPAR models is being developed. The prioritization process focuses on those findings that will enhance the accuracy, completeness and usability of the SPAR models.

  4. The Origins of the SPAR-H Method's Performance Shaping Factor Multipliers

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; Harold S. Blackman

    2007-08-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method has proved to be a reliable, easy-to-use method for human reliability analysis. Calculation of human error probability (HEP) rates is especially straightforward, starting with pre-defined nominal error rates for cognitive vs. action oriented tasks, and incorporating performance shaping factor (PSF) multipliers upon those nominal error rates. SPAR-H uses eight PSFs with multipliers typically corresponding to nominal, degraded, and severely degraded human performance for individual PSFs. Additionally, some PSFs feature multipliers to reflect enhanced performance. Although SPAR-H enjoys widespread use among industry and regulators, current source documents on SPAR-H such as NUREG/CR-6883 do not provide a clear account of the origin of these multipliers. The present paper redresses this shortcoming and documents the historic development of the SPAR-H PSF multipliers, from the initial use of nominal error rates, to the selection of the eight PSFs, to the mapping of multipliers to available data sources such as a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). Where error rates were not readily derived from THERP and other sources, expert judgment was used to extrapolate appropriate values. In documenting key background information on the multipliers, this paper provides a much needed cross-reference for human reliability practitioners and researchers of SPAR-H to validate analyses and research findings.

  5. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    SciTech Connect

    April M. Whaley; Dana L. Kelly; Ronald L. Boring; William J. Galyean

    2012-06-01

    Step-by-step guidance was developed recently at Idaho National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission on the use of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This work was done to address SPAR-H user needs, specifically requests for additional guidance on the proper application of various aspects of the methodology. This paper overviews the steps of the SPAR-H analysis process and highlights some of the most important insights gained during the development of the step-by-step directions. This supplemental guidance for analysts is applicable when plant-specific information is available, and goes beyond the general guidance provided in existing SPAR-H documentation. The steps highlighted in this paper are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff.

  6. SPAR thermal analysis processors reference manual, system level 16. Volume 1: Program executive. Volume 2: Theory. Volume 3: Demonstration problems. Volume 4: Experimental thermal element capability. Volume 5: Programmer reference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marlowe, M. B.; Moore, R. A.; Whetstone, W. D.

    1979-01-01

    User instructions are given for performing linear and nonlinear steady state and transient thermal analyses with SPAR thermal analysis processors TGEO, SSTA, and TRTA. It is assumed that the user is familiar with basic SPAR operations and basic heat transfer theory.

  7. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    SciTech Connect

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  8. Analysis of genetic variation in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) genotypes with various agronomical traits using SPAR methods.

    PubMed

    Satish, Lakkakula; Shilpha, Jayabalan; Pandian, Subramani; Rency, Arockiam Sagina; Rathinapriya, Periyasamy; Ceasar, Stanislaus Antony; Largia, Muthiah Joe Virgin; Kumar, Are Ashok; Ramesh, Manikandan

    2016-01-15

    Genetic variation among 45 genotypes of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) representing seven subpopulations was assessed using three single primer amplification reaction (SPAR) methods viz., inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR), random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and directed amplification of minisatellite-region DNA (DAMD). Totally 15 ISSR, 8 RAPD and 7 DAMD primers generated 263 amplification products, accounting for 84.6% polymorphism across all the genotypes. The Mantel's test of correlation revealed the best correlation between ISSR and cumulative data with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.84. Assessment of population diversity indicated that the maximum intra population genetic diversity was recorded among high FeZn lines (HFL) having maximum values of Nei's genetic diversity (h) (0.244), Shannon information index (I) (0.368) and the percentage of polymorphic loci (Pp) (72.65%) while the corresponding lowest values of 0.074, 0.109 and 17.95% respectively were observed among the members of MDT subpopulation. The mean coefficient of gene differentiation (GST) and the gene flow (Nm) between populations were observed to be 0.396 and 0.7680 respectively. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) suggested that maximum genetic variation exists within populations (95%) than among populations (5%). Thus the information obtained from this study could be utilized in sorghum breeding programmes for the development of varieties with improved nutrition and agronomic values in future.

  9. Sparring and Neurological Function in Professional Boxers

    PubMed Central

    Stiller, John W.; Yu, Steven S.; Brenner, Lisa A.; Langenberg, Patricia; Scrofani, Phillip; Pannella, Patrick; Hsu, Edbert B.; Roberts, Darryl W.; Monsell, Ray M. T.; Binks, Sidney W.; Guzman, Alvaro; Postolache, Teodor T.

    2014-01-01

    Despite increased interest regarding the potentially long-term negative impact of chronic traumatic brain injury, limited research has been conducted regarding such injuries and neurological outcomes in real world settings. To increase understanding regarding the relationship between sparring (e.g., training under the tutelage of an experienced boxing coach for the purpose of improving skills and/or fitness) and neurological functioning, professional boxers (n = 237) who competed in Maryland between 2003 and 2008 completed measures regarding sparring exposure (Cumulative Sparring Index, CSI) and performance on tests of cognition (Symbol Digit Modalities Test, SDMT) and balance (Sharpened Romberg Test, SRT). Measures were completed prior to boxing matches. Higher scores on the CSI (increased sparring exposure) were associated with poorer performance on both tests of cognition (SDMT) and balance (SRT). A threshold effect was noted regarding performance on the SDMT, with those reporting CSI values greater than about 150 experiencing a decline in cognition. A history of frequent and/or intense sparring may pose a significant risk for developing boxing associated neurological sequelae. Implementing administration of clinically meaningful tests before bouts, such as the CSI, SDMT, and/or the SRT, as well as documentation of results into the boxer’s physicals or medical profiles may be an important step for improving boxing safety. PMID:25101253

  10. Postflight analysis of the single-axis acoustic system on SPAR VI and recommendations for future flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Naumann, R. J.; Oran, W. A.; Whymark, R. R.; Rey, C.

    1981-01-01

    The single axis acoustic levitator that was flown on SPAR VI malfunctioned. The results of a series of tests, analyses, and investigation of hypotheses that were undertaken to determine the probable cause of failure are presented, together with recommendations for future flights of the apparatus. The most probable causes of the SPAR VI failure were lower than expected sound intensity due to mechanical degradation of the sound source, and an unexpected external force that caused the experiment sample to move radially and eventually be lost from the acoustic energy well.

  11. SPAR reference manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whetstone, W. D.

    1976-01-01

    The functions and operating rules of the SPAR system, which is a group of computer programs used primarily to perform stress, buckling, and vibrational analyses of linear finite element systems, were given. The following subject areas were discussed: basic information, structure definition, format system matrix processors, utility programs, static solutions, stresses, sparse matrix eigensolver, dynamic response, graphics, and substructure processors.

  12. Guidance on Dependence Assessment in SPAR-H

    SciTech Connect

    April M. Whaley

    2012-06-01

    As part of the effort to develop the SPAR-H user guidance, particular attention was paid to the assessment of dependence in order to address user questions about proper application of dependence. This paper presents a discussion of dependence from a psychological perspective and provides guidance on applying this information during the qualitative analysis of dependence to ensure more realistic and appropriate dependence assessments with the SPAR-H method. While this guidance was developed with SPAR-H in mind, it may be informative to other human reliability analysis methods that also use a THERP-based dependence approach, particularly if applied at the human failure event level.

  13. Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) project: SPAR 10

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poorman, R. (Compiler)

    1986-01-01

    The Space Processing Applications Rocket Project (SPAR) X Final Report contains the compilation of the post-flight reports from each of the Principal Investigators (PIs) on the four selected science payloads, in addition to the engineering report as documented by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). This combined effort also describes pertinent portions of ground-based research leading to the ultimate selection of the flight sample composition, including design, fabrication and testing, all of which are expected to contribute to an improved comprehension of materials processing in space. The SPAR project was coordinated and managed by MSFC as part of the Microgravity Science and Applications (MSA) program of the Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) of NASA Headquarters. This technical memorandum is directed entirely to the payload manifest flown in the tenth of a series of SPAR flights conducted at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) and includes the experiments entitled, Containerless Processing Technology, SPAR Experiment 76-20/3; Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites, SPAR Experiment 76-22/3; Comparative Alloy Solidification, SPAR Experiment 76-36/3; and Foam Copper, SPAR Experiment 77-9/1R.

  14. Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) project, SPAR 9

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poorman, R. (Compiler)

    1984-01-01

    SPAR 9 (R-17) payload configuration, rocket performance, payload support, science payload instrumentation, and payload recovery are discussed. Directional solidification of magnetic composites, directional solidification of immiscible aluminum-indium alloys, and comparative alloy solidification experiments are reported.

  15. HUMAN ERROR QUANTIFICATION USING PERFORMANCE SHAPING FACTORS IN THE SPAR-H METHOD

    SciTech Connect

    Harold S. Blackman; David I. Gertman; Ronald L. Boring

    2008-09-01

    This paper describes a cognitively based human reliability analysis (HRA) quantification technique for estimating the human error probabilities (HEPs) associated with operator and crew actions at nuclear power plants. The method described here, Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method, was developed to aid in characterizing and quantifying human performance at nuclear power plants. The intent was to develop a defensible method that would consider all factors that may influence performance. In the SPAR-H approach, calculation of HEP rates is especially straightforward, starting with pre-defined nominal error rates for cognitive vs. action-oriented tasks, and incorporating performance shaping factor multipliers upon those nominal error rates.

  16. Space Processing Application Rocket project, SPAR 5

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F. (Compiler); Schaefer, D. (Compiler)

    1980-01-01

    Post flight results and analysis are presented on the following experiments: 'Agglomeration in Immiscible Liquids', 'Contained Polycrystalline Solidification in Low G', 'The Direct Observation of Dendrite Remelting and Macrosegregation in Casting', and 'Uniform Dispersion by Crystallization'. An engineering report on the performance of the SPAR Black Brant rocket is also included. Much useful data and information were accumulated for directing and developing experimental techniques and investigations toward an expanding commercially beneficial program of materials processing in the coming shuttle era.

  17. SPAR reference manual update SPAR level 15

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whetstone, W. D.

    1980-01-01

    Command runstream elements are presented for analyzing structural systems that are composed of a number of cyclically symmetrical sectors. Provisions are included for systems in which each cyclically symmetrical sector also possesses a plane of reflective symmetry. The following types of analysis may be performed: static analysis with and without preload, vibrational analysis with and without preload, and buckling analysis with and without preload.

  18. A concept study of a carbon spar cap design for a 80m wind turbine blade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosemeier, M.; Bätge, M.

    2014-06-01

    The buckling resistance is a key design driver for large wind turbine blades with a significant influence on the material costs. During the structural design process the choice was made for carbon spar caps and two shear webs, which were set relatively far apart in order to stabilize the panels. This design presented a major challenge for the stability of the spar caps. The topology of these spar caps has been modified with regard to stability, comparing a continuous spar cap with split spar cap concepts and considering both lay-ups with hybrid carbon glass spar caps or sandwich concepts. Within those concepts, parametric studies were conducted varying different geometrical parameters of the spar caps and its layups. In order to determine the buckling resistance of the spar cap, an analytical model considering a 2D cross section discretized blade model was utilized to select the basic concept, after which a 3D numerical finite element model taking the whole blade into account was used to evaluate the chosen design concepts. The stability limit state analysis was conducted according to the certification scheme of GL guideline 2012. The various concepts were evaluated based on the blade's mass, tip deflection and modal properties. The results of this design process of the spar caps and the evaluation of the used analysis tools are presented within the paper.

  19. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  20. Turbine blade with spar and shell

    DOEpatents

    Davies, Daniel O.; Peterson, Ross H.

    2012-04-24

    A turbine blade with a spar and shell construction in which the spar and the shell are both secured within two platform halves. The spar and the shell each include outward extending ledges on the bottom ends that fit within grooves formed on the inner sides of the platform halves to secure the spar and the shell against radial movement when the two platform halves are joined. The shell is also secured to the spar by hooks extending from the shell that slide into grooves formed on the outer surface of the spar. The hooks form a serpentine flow cooling passage between the shell and the spar. The spar includes cooling holes on the lower end in the leading edge region to discharge cooling air supplied through the platform root and into the leading edge cooling channel.

  1. Pulsed eddy current inspection of CF-188 inner wing spar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horan, Peter Francis

    Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) CF-188 Hornet aircraft engineering authorities have stated a requirement for a Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) technique to detect Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) in the inner wing spars without fastener or composite wing skin removal. Current radiographic inspections involve significant aircraft downtime, and Pulsed Eddy Current (PEC) inspection is proposed as a solution. The aluminum inner wing spars of CF-188 Hornet aircraft may undergo stress corrosion cracking (SCC) along the spar between the fasteners that secure carbon-fiber/ epoxy composite skin to the wing. Inspection of the spar through the wing skin is required to avoid wing disassembly. The thickness of the wing skin varies between 8 and 20 mm (0.3 to 0.8 inch) and fasteners may be either titanium or ferrous. PEC generated by a probe centered over a fastener, demonstrates capability of detecting simulated cracks within spars with the wing skin present. Comparison of signals from separate sensors, mounted to either side of the excitation coil, is used to detect differences in induced eddy current fields, which arise in the presence of cracks. To overcome variability in PEC signal response due to variation in 1) skin thickness, 2) fastener material and size, and 3) centering over fasteners, a large calibration data set is acquired. Multi-dimensional scores from a Modified Principal Components Analysis (PCA) of the data are reduced to one dimension (1D) using a Discriminant Analysis method. Under inspection conditions, calibrated PCA scores combined with discriminant analysis permit rapid real time go/no-go PEC detection of cracks in CF-188 inner wing spar. Probe designs using both pickup coils and Giant Magnetoresistive (GMR) sensors were tested on samples with the same ferrous and titanium fasteners found on the CF-188. Flaws were correctly detected at lift-offs of up to 21mm utilizing a variety of insulating skin materials simulating the carbon-fibre reinforced polymer

  2. Space processing applications rocket project. SPAR 8

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chassay, R. P. (Editor)

    1984-01-01

    The Space Processing Applications Rocket Project (SPAR) VIII Final Report contains the engineering report prepared at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) as well as the three reports from the principal investigators. These reports also describe pertinent portions of ground-based research leading to the ultimate selection of the flight sample composition, including design, fabrication, and testing, all of which are expected to contribute immeasurably to an improved comprehension of materials processing in space. This technical memorandum is directed entirely to the payload manifest flown in the eighth of a series of SPAR flights conducted at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) and includes the experiments entitled Glass Formation Experiment SPAR 74-42/1R, Glass Fining Experiment in Low-Gravity SPAR 77-13/1, and Dynamics of Liquid Bubbles SPAR Experiment 77-18/2.

  3. Design, Manufacture and Testing of A Bend-Twist D-Spar

    SciTech Connect

    Ong, Cheng-Huat; Tsai, Stephen W.

    1999-06-01

    Studies have indicated that an adaptive wind turbine blade design can significantly enhance the performance of the wind turbine blade on energy capture and load mitigation. In order to realize the potential benefits of aeroelastic tailoring, a bend-twist D-spar, which is the backbone of a blade, was designed and fabricated to achieve the objectives of having maximum bend-twist coupling and fulfilling desirable structural properties (031 & GJ). Two bend-twist D-spars, a hybrid of glass and carbon fibers and an all-carbon D-spar, were fabricated using a bladder process. One of the D-spars, the hybrid D-spar, was subjected to a cantilever static test and modal testing. Various parameters such as materials, laminate schedule, thickness and internal rib were examined in designing a bend-twist D-spar. The fabrication tooling, the lay-up process and the joint design for two symmetric clamshells are described in this report. Finally, comparisons between the experimental test results and numerical results are presented. The comparisons indicate that the numerical analysis (static and modal analysis) agrees well with test results.

  4. Drilling and production from a floating spar

    SciTech Connect

    Brooks, I.H.; Carroll, J.P.

    1994-12-31

    A deepwater drilling and production platform has been designed based on a floating spar. The spar is a catenary-moored cylindrical vessel having a deep draft which minimizes heave motions. The concept is an economic competitor with other deep water designs such as compliant towers and tension leg platforms. The spar`s oil storage capacity makes it particularly applicable for remote areas where pipeline infrastructure is unavailable and production is primarily from oil reservoirs. Without the need for a swivel, offloading of oil can be accomplished either directly from the spar, by use of a floating hose and support vessel, or by transfer to an offloading buoy. The concept is compatible with early production or phased development scenarios, permits surface completions of producing and injection wells, and allows for direct well intervention. The ability to reposition the spar by manipulations of the mooring lines favors a system of individual wellheads on the seafloor. Wells can be drilled, completed, and produced without pulling the drilling riser. When production from the field reaches its economic limit, the entire system can be towed to a new location and reused.

  5. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    SciTech Connect

    W. J. Galyean; A. M. Whaley; D. L. Kelly; R. L. Boring

    2011-05-01

    This guide provides step-by-step guidance on the use of the SPAR-H method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This guide is intended to be used with the worksheets provided in: 'The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method,' NUREG/CR-6883, dated August 2005. Each step in the process of producing a Human Error Probability (HEP) is discussed. These steps are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff. The discussions on dependence are extensive and include an appendix that describes insights obtained from the psychology literature.

  6. Design study of prestressed rotor spar concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gleich, D.

    1980-01-01

    Studies on the Bell Helicopter 540 Rotor System of the AH-1G helicopter were performed. The stiffness, mass and geometric configurations of the Bell blade were matched to give a dynamically similar prestressed composite blade. A multi-tube, prestressed composite spar blade configuration was designed for superior ballistic survivability at low life cycle cost. The composite spar prestresses, imparted during fabrication, are chosen to maintain compression in the high strength cryogenically stretchformed 304-L stainless steel liner and tension in the overwrapped HTS graphite fibers under operating loads. This prestressing results in greatly improved crack propagation and fatigue resistance as well as enhanced fiber stiffness properties. Advantages projected for the prestressed composite rotor spar concept include increased operational life and improved ballistic survivability at low life cycle cost.

  7. 33 CFR 147.825 - Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone... (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.825 Chevron Genesis Spar safety zone. (a) Description. The Chevron Genesis Spar, Green Canyon 205A (GC205A), is located at position 27°46′46.365″ N,...

  8. Space Processing Applications Rocket project, SPAR 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F. (Compiler); Chassay, R. (Compiler)

    1976-01-01

    The experiment objectives, design/operational concepts, and final results of each of nine scientific experiments conducted during the first Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) flight are summarized. The nine individual SPAR experiments, covering a wide and varied range of scientific materials processing objectives, were entitled: solidification of Pb-Sb eutectic, feasibility of producing closed-cell metal foams, characterization of rocket vibration environment by measurement of mixing of two liquids, uniform dispersions of crystallization processing, direct observation of solidification as a function of gravity levels, casting thoria dispersion-strengthened interfaces, contained polycrystalline solidification, and preparation of a special alloy for manufacturing of magnetic hard superconductor under zero-g environment.

  9. Space Processing Applications Rocket project SPAR III

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F.

    1978-01-01

    This document presented the engineering report and science payload III test report and summarized the experiment objectives, design/operational concepts, and final results of each of five scientific experiments conducted during the third Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) flight flown by NASA in December 1976. The five individual SPAR experiments, covering a wide and varied range of scientific materials processing objectives, were entitled: Liquid Mixing, Interaction of Bubbles with Solidification Interfaces, Epitaxial Growth of Single Crystal Film, Containerless Processing of Beryllium, and Contact and Coalescence of Viscous Bodies.

  10. Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  11. Nonlinear random motion analysis of coupled heave-pitch motions of a spar platform considering 1st-order and 2nd-order wave loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Shuxiao; Tang, Yougang; Li, Wei

    2016-06-01

    In this study, we consider first- and second-order random wave loads and the effects of time-varying displacement volume and transient wave elevation to establish motion equations of the Spar platform's coupled heave-pitch. We generated random wave loads based on frequency-domain wave load transfer functions and the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) wave spectrum, designed program codes to solve the motion equations, and then simulated the coupled heave-pitch motion responses of the platform in the time domain. We then calculated and compared the motion responses in different sea conditions and separately investigated the effects of second-order random wave loads and transient wave elevation. The results show that the coupled heave-pitch motion responses of the platform are primarily dominated by wave height and the characteristic wave period, the latter of which has a greater impact. Second-order mean wave loads mainly affect the average heave value. The platform's pitch increases after the second-order low frequency wave loads are taken into account. The platform's heave is underestimated if the transient wave elevation term in the motion equations is neglected.

  12. SparRec: An effective matrix completion framework of missing data imputation for GWAS

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Bo; Ma, Shiqian; Causey, Jason; Qiao, Linbo; Hardin, Matthew Price; Bitts, Ian; Johnson, Daniel; Zhang, Shuzhong; Huang, Xiuzhen

    2016-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies present computational challenges for missing data imputation, while the advances of genotype technologies are generating datasets of large sample sizes with sample sets genotyped on multiple SNP chips. We present a new framework SparRec (Sparse Recovery) for imputation, with the following properties: (1) The optimization models of SparRec, based on low-rank and low number of co-clusters of matrices, are different from current statistics methods. While our low-rank matrix completion (LRMC) model is similar to Mendel-Impute, our matrix co-clustering factorization (MCCF) model is completely new. (2) SparRec, as other matrix completion methods, is flexible to be applied to missing data imputation for large meta-analysis with different cohorts genotyped on different sets of SNPs, even when there is no reference panel. This kind of meta-analysis is very challenging for current statistics based methods. (3) SparRec has consistent performance and achieves high recovery accuracy even when the missing data rate is as high as 90%. Compared with Mendel-Impute, our low-rank based method achieves similar accuracy and efficiency, while the co-clustering based method has advantages in running time. The testing results show that SparRec has significant advantages and competitive performance over other state-of-the-art existing statistics methods including Beagle and fastPhase. PMID:27762341

  13. Sparring and Cognitive Function in Professional Boxers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jordan, Barry D.; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Professional boxers provided information about their careers and training practices and completed neuropsychological testing. Test performance did not relate to age, boxing record, career length, or knockout history. The amount of sparring inversely related to performance on several of the tests, with impairment in the areas of attention,…

  14. Diffusion bonded boron/aluminum spar-shell fan blade

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carlson, C. E. K.; Cutler, J. L.; Fisher, W. J.; Memmott, J. V. W.

    1980-01-01

    Design and process development tasks intended to demonstrate composite blade application in large high by-pass ratio turbofan engines are described. Studies on a 3.0 aspect radio space and shell construction fan blade indicate a potential weight savings for a first stage fan rotor of 39% when a hollow titanium spar is employed. An alternate design which featured substantial blade internal volume filled with titanium honeycomb inserts achieved a 14% potential weight savings over the B/M rotor system. This second configuration requires a smaller development effort and entails less risk to translate a design into a successful product. The feasibility of metal joining large subsonic spar and shell fan blades was demonstrated. Initial aluminum alloy screening indicates a distinct preference for AA6061 aluminum alloy for use as a joint material. The simulated airfoil pressings established the necessity of rigid air surfaces when joining materials of different compressive rigidities. The two aluminum alloy matrix choices both were successfully formed into blade shells.

  15. Bubble behavior during solidification in low-gravity. [SPAR 1 and SPAR 3 flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papazian, J. M.; Wilcox, W. R.

    1979-01-01

    The trapping and behavior of gas bubbles were studied during low gravity solidification of carbon tetrabromide. The flight experiments were performed during two sounding rocket flights (SPAR 1 and SPAR 3) and involved gradient freeze solidification of gas saturated melts. Gas bubbles were evolved at the solid-liquid interfaces during the low gravity intervals. No large-scale thermal migration of bubbles, bubble pushing by the solid-liquid interface, or bubble detachment from the interface were observed during the low gravity experiments. During the SPAR 3 experiment, a unique bubble motion-fluid flow event occurred in one specimen: a large bubble moved downward and caused some circulation of the melt. The gas bubbles that were trapped by the solid in commercial purity material formed voids that had a cyclindrical shape in SPAR 3, in contrast to the spherical shape that had been observed in SPAR 1. These shapes were not influenced by the gravity level, but were dependent upon the initial temperature gradient. In higher purity material the shape of the voids changed from cylindrical in one-g to spherical in low-g.

  16. SPAR electrophoretic separation experiments, part 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cosmi, F. M.

    1978-01-01

    The opportunity to use a sounding rocket for separation experiments is a logical continuation of earlier electrophoresis demonstrations and experiments. A free-flow electrophoresis system, developed under the Advanced Applications Flight Experiment (AAFE) Program, was designed so that it would fit into a rocket payload. The SPAR program provides a unique opportunity to complete the intial stages of microgravity testing prior to any Shuttle applications. The objective of the work described in this report was to ensure proper operating parameters for the defined experimental samples to be used in the SPAR Electrophoretic Separation Experiment. Ground based experiments were undertaken not only to define flight parameters but also to serve as a point of comparison for flight results. Possible flight experiment problem areas were also studied such as sample interaction due to sedimentation, concentration effects and storage effects. Late in the program anomalies of field strengths and buffer conductivities were also investigated.

  17. Approximations for column effect in airplane wing spars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Warner, Edward P; Short, Mac

    1927-01-01

    The significance attaching to "column effect" in airplane wing spars has been increasingly realized with the passage of time, but exact computations of the corrections to bending moment curves resulting from the existence of end loads are frequently omitted because of the additional labor involved in an analysis by rigorously correct methods. The present report represents an attempt to provide for approximate column effect corrections that can be graphically or otherwise expressed so as to be applied with a minimum of labor. Curves are plotted giving approximate values of the correction factors for single and two bay trusses of varying proportions and with various relationships between axial and lateral loads. It is further shown from an analysis of those curves that rough but useful approximations can be obtained from Perry's formula for corrected bending moment, with the assumed distance between points of inflection arbitrarily modified in accordance with rules given in the report. The discussion of general rules of variation of bending stress with axial load is accompanied by a study of the best distribution of the points of support along a spar for various conditions of loading.

  18. PROOF OF CONCEPT FOR A HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD FOR HEURISTIC USABILITY EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Jeffrey C. Joe; Julie L. Marble

    2005-09-01

    An ongoing issue within human-computer interaction (HCI) is the need for simplified or “discount” methods. The current economic slowdown has necessitated innovative methods that are results driven and cost effective. The myriad methods of design and usability are currently being cost-justified, and new techniques are actively being explored that meet current budgets and needs. Recent efforts in human reliability analysis (HRA) are highlighted by the ten-year development of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk HRA (SPAR-H) method. The SPAR-H method has been used primarily for determining humancentered risk at nuclear power plants. The SPAR-H method, however, shares task analysis underpinnings with HCI. Despite this methodological overlap, there is currently no HRA approach deployed in heuristic usability evaluation. This paper presents an extension of the existing SPAR-H method to be used as part of heuristic usability evaluation in HCI.

  19. Preform spar cap for a wind turbine rotor blade

    DOEpatents

    Livingston, Jamie T.; Driver, Howard D.; van Breugel, Sjef; Jenkins, Thomas B.; Bakhuis, Jan Willem; Billen, Andrew J.; Riahi, Amir

    2011-07-12

    A spar cap for a wind turbine rotor blade. The spar cap may include multiple preform components. The multiple preform components may be planar sheets having a swept shape with a first end and a second end. The multiple preform components may be joined by mating the first end of a first preform component to the second end of a next preform component, forming the spar cap.

  20. Single primer amplification reaction (SPAR) reveals inter- and intra-specific natural genetic variation in five species of Cymbidium (Orchidaceae).

    PubMed

    Sharma, Santosh Kumar; Kumaria, Suman; Tandon, Pramod; Rao, Satyawada Rama

    2011-09-01

    A total of 53 primers belonging to three SPAR methods, viz. RAPD, ISSR and DAMD, collectively produced 456 polymorphic amplicons with 96.6% polymorphism at inter-specific level in five species of Cymbidium, viz. C. aloifolium, C. mastersii, C. elegans, C. eburneum and C. tigrinum, whereas at intra-specific level, the observed polymorphism ranged from 51.2% to 77.1% among them. Three SPARs collectively revealed 25 unique species-specific amplicons; most of them were amplified with RAPD and DAMD primers besides few bands which were either missed (absent) or lost (heterozygosity). UPGMA clustering evidently distinguished the representatives of C. aloifolium and C. tigrinum, with distinct genetic distance, which may be due to their entirely different habitats as well as discrete morphological characteristics. Upon analysis of the data generated, all the three SPAR methods, either independently and/or in combination, revealed wide range of genetic variation between and within five species of Cymbidium. Comparison of matrix of individual SPAR method revealed that analysis of natural genetic variation using combination of SPAR methods, rather than an isolated approach, is highly effective. The critical analyses of the amplicon data are indicative of DAMD as the most powerful SPAR method by showing highest resolving power (Rp) followed by ISSR and RAPD. Alternatively, the total polymorphic information content was highest in case of RAPD followed by other two SPAR methods. Thus, the present investigation for the first time provides a valuable baseline data for genetic variation at inter- and intra-specific levels in horticultural Cymbidiums and also addresses conservation concerns.

  1. Iceland spar and its legacy in science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristjánsson, L.

    2012-05-01

    In the late 17th century, Rasmus Bartholin and Christiaan Huygens investigated a curious optical property of crystals found at Helgustaðir in Eastern Iceland. This property which has been called double refraction, revealed in the 19th century a new aspect of light which turned out to be very useful as a probe of the internal structure of matter. Clear specimens of these crystals, an unusually pure variety of calcite, have since around 1780 been known as ''Iceland spar''. Few if any other localities yielding calcite crystals of comparable size and quality were discovered before 1900, and no alternatives for use in precision optical instrumentation were developed until the 1930s. Hundreds of tons of calcite were exported from Helgustaðir, mostly between 1850 and 1925. However, little information has been found on trading routes for the material of optical quality, so that some enigmas remain regarding its supply-demand situation. A study of the scientific literature in the period up to 1930 has revealed that results obtained with the aid of Iceland spar accelerated progress within the earth sciences (in mineralogy and petrology), physics, chemistry, and biology, even by decades. This has also influenced the development of technology and of medicine in various direct and indirect ways.

  2. Quantitative environmental risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Klovning, J.; Nilsen, E.F.

    1995-12-31

    According to regulations relating to implementation and rise of risk analysis in the petroleum activities issued by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, it is mandatory for an operator on the Norwegian Continental Shelf to establish acceptance criteria for environmental risk in the activities and carry out environmental risk analysis. This paper presents a {open_quotes}new{close_quotes} method for environmental risk analysis developed by the company. The objective has been to assist the company to meet rules and regulations and to assess and describe the environmental risk in a systematic manner. In the environmental risk analysis the most sensitive biological resource in the affected area is used to assess the environmental damage. The analytical method is based on the methodology for quantitative risk analysis related to loss of life. In addition it incorporates the effect of seasonal fluctuations in the environmental risk evaluations. The paper is describing the function of the main analytical sequences exemplified through an analysis of environmental risk related to exploration drilling in an environmental sensitive area on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

  3. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    SciTech Connect

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  4. Risk analysis methodology survey

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batson, Robert G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  5. The Strength of Shell and Tubular Spar Wings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ebner, H

    1940-01-01

    The report is a survey of the strength problems arising on shell and tubular spar wings. The treatment of the shell wing strength is primarily confined to those questions which concern the shell wing only; those pertaining to both shell wing and shell body together have already been treated in TM 838. The discussion of stress condition and compressive strength of shell wings and tubular spar wings is prefaced by several considerations concerning the spar and shell design of metal wings from the point of view of strength.

  6. ER-20037 LLNL eternal pathfinder wing spar design study report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    This document outlines the results of a design study performed by EDO-FSD on the LLNL Eternal Pathfinder Wing Spar/Fuel Tank. The main focus of the design study was the weight minimization of the composite wall of the mid span spar section of the aircraft. The torque, shear, moment and pressure loading requirements, as well as LLNL`s preliminary drawings, were used to develop a reduced weight mid-span spar design. The design study also encompassed details such as the pressure bulkheads, wing rod connectors, and attachment flanges.

  7. Risk/Stress Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwerdtfeger, Don; Howell, Richard E.

    1986-01-01

    Identifies stress as a definite health hazard and risk factor involved in a variety of health situations. Proposes that stress identification efforts be considered in environmental analysis so that a more complete approach to risk assessment and management and health hazard prevention can occur. (ML)

  8. Is risk analysis scientific?

    PubMed

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part).

  9. DETAIL VIEW OF INTERIOR MAIN SPACE WITH SPAR MILL EQUIPMENT ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    DETAIL VIEW OF INTERIOR MAIN SPACE WITH SPAR MILL EQUIPMENT IN FOREGROUND, FACING NORTH. - Douglas Aircraft Company Long Beach Plant, Aircraft Parts Sub-Assembly Building, 3855 Lakewood Boulevard, Long Beach, Los Angeles County, CA

  10. Metal spar/superhybrid shell composite fan blades. [for application to turbofan engins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Salemme, C. T.; Murphy, G. C.

    1979-01-01

    The use of superhybrid materials in the manufacture and testing of large fan blades is analyzed. The FOD resistance of large metal spar/superhybrid fan blades is investigated. The technical effort reported was comprised of: (1) preliminary blade design; (2) detailed analysis of two selected superhybrid blade designs; (3) manufacture of two process evaluation blades and destructive evaluation; and (4) manufacture and whirligig testing of six prototype superhybrid blades.

  11. A dynamic spar numerical model for passive shape change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calogero, J. P.; Frecker, M. I.; Hasnain, Z.; Hubbard, J. E., Jr.

    2016-10-01

    A three-dimensional constraint-driven dynamic rigid-link numerical model of a flapping wing structure with compliant joints (CJs) called the dynamic spar numerical model is introduced and implemented. CJs are modeled as spherical joints with distributed mass and spring-dampers with coupled nonlinear spring and damping coefficients, which models compliant mechanisms spatially distributed in the structure while greatly reducing computation time compared to a finite element model. The constraints are established, followed by the formulation of a state model used in conjunction with a forward time integrator, an experiment to verify a rigid-link assumption and determine a flapping angle function, and finally several example runs. Modeling the CJs as coupled bi-linear springs shows the wing is able to flex more during upstroke than downstroke. Coupling the spring stiffnesses allows an angular deformation about one axis to induce an angular deformation about another axis, where the magnitude is proportional to the coupling term. Modeling both the leading edge and diagonal spars shows that the diagonal spar changes the kinematics of the leading edge spar verses only considering the leading edge spar, causing much larger axial rotations in the leading edge spar. The kinematics are very sensitive to CJ location, where moving the CJ toward the wing root causes a stronger response, and adding multiple CJs on the leading edge spar with a CJ on the diagonal spar allows the wing to deform with larger magnitude in all directions. This model lays a framework for a tool which can be used to understand flapping wing flight.

  12. Program risk analysis handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batson, R. G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided.

  13. Targeted assets risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Bouwsema, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessments utilising the consolidated risk assessment process as described by Public Safety Canada and the Centre for Security Science utilise the five threat categories of natural, human accidental, technological, human intentional and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or explosive (CBRNE). The categories of human intentional and CBRNE indicate intended actions against specific targets. It is therefore necessary to be able to identify which pieces of critical infrastructure represent the likely targets of individuals with malicious intent. Using the consolidated risk assessment process and the target capabilities list, coupled with the CARVER methodology and a security vulnerability analysis, it is possible to identify these targeted assets and their weaknesses. This process can help emergency managers to identify where resources should be allocated and funding spent. Targeted Assets Risk Analysis (TARA) presents a new opportunity to improve how risk is measured, monitored, managed and minimised through the four phases of emergency management, namely, prevention, preparation, response and recovery. To reduce risk throughout Canada, Defence Research and Development Canada is interested in researching the potential benefits of a comprehensive approach to risk assessment and management. The TARA provides a framework against which potential human intentional threats can be measured and quantified, thereby improving safety for all Canadians.

  14. Targeted assets risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Bouwsema, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessments utilising the consolidated risk assessment process as described by Public Safety Canada and the Centre for Security Science utilise the five threat categories of natural, human accidental, technological, human intentional and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or explosive (CBRNE). The categories of human intentional and CBRNE indicate intended actions against specific targets. It is therefore necessary to be able to identify which pieces of critical infrastructure represent the likely targets of individuals with malicious intent. Using the consolidated risk assessment process and the target capabilities list, coupled with the CARVER methodology and a security vulnerability analysis, it is possible to identify these targeted assets and their weaknesses. This process can help emergency managers to identify where resources should be allocated and funding spent. Targeted Assets Risk Analysis (TARA) presents a new opportunity to improve how risk is measured, monitored, managed and minimised through the four phases of emergency management, namely, prevention, preparation, response and recovery. To reduce risk throughout Canada, Defence Research and Development Canada is interested in researching the potential benefits of a comprehensive approach to risk assessment and management. The TARA provides a framework against which potential human intentional threats can be measured and quantified, thereby improving safety for all Canadians. PMID:23615063

  15. DWPF risk analysis summary

    SciTech Connect

    Shedrow, C.B.

    1990-10-01

    This document contains selected risk analysis data from Chapter 9 (Safety Analysis) of the Defense Waste Processing Facility Safety Analysis Report DWPF SAR and draft Addendum 1 to the Waste Tank Farms SAR. Although these data may be revised prior to finalization of the draft SAR and the draft addendum, they are presently the best available information and were therefore used in preparing the risk analysis portion of the DWPF Environmental Analysis (DWPF EA). This information has been extracted from those draft documents an approved under separate cover so that it can be used as reference material for the DWPF EA when it is placed in the public reading rooms. 9 refs., 4 tabs.

  16. Improvements in linked-spar motion-compensated lifting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olsen, R. A.; Cuthbertson, R. A.

    1984-10-01

    An improved system for operating a lifting cable over the side of a ship at sea in which a spar buoy having an adjustable lifting capacity is coupled to the shop by a rigid linkage which is free to pivot on an axis attached to the ship deck, and operates to decouple the motion of the ship from lifting cable. The spar buoy is attached to a gimbal sheave assembly having a disengageable connector and tension line for drawing the connector into engagement with a mating socket at the outward end of a linkage boom. A narrow upper section of the spar buoy is provided with a plurality of vertical tubes and valves which by flooding or evacuation operate to vary the effective water plane area of the buoy for continual fine tuning and optimally adjusting of its natural heave mode characteristic frequency.

  17. Wind blade spar cap and method of making

    DOEpatents

    Mohamed, Mansour H.

    2008-05-27

    A wind blade spar cap for strengthening a wind blade including an integral, unitary three-dimensional woven material having a first end and a second end, corresponding to a root end of the blade and a tip end of the blade, wherein the material tapers in width from the first to the second end while maintaining a constant thickness and decreasing weight therebetween, the cap being capable of being affixed to the blade for providing increased strength with controlled variation in weight from the root end to the tip end based upon the tapered width of the material thereof. The present inventions also include the method of making the wind blade spar cap and a wind blade including the wind blade spar cap.

  18. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  19. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  20. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  1. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  2. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  3. Multiple piece turbine engine airfoil with a structural spar

    DOEpatents

    Vance, Steven J.

    2011-10-11

    A multiple piece turbine airfoil having an outer shell with an airfoil tip that is attached to a root with an internal structural spar is disclosed. The root may be formed from first and second sections that include an internal cavity configured to receive and secure the one or more components forming the generally elongated airfoil. The internal structural spar may be attached to an airfoil tip and place the generally elongated airfoil in compression. The configuration enables each component to be formed from different materials to reduce the cost of the materials and to optimize the choice of material for each component.

  4. Space processing applications rocket project SPAR 4, engineering report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F. (Compiler)

    1980-01-01

    The materials processing experiments in space, conducted on the SPAR 4 Black Brant VC rocket, are described and discussed. The SPAR 4 payload configuration, the rocket performance, and the flight sequence are reported. The results, analyses, and anomalies of the four experiments are discussed. The experiments conducted were the uniform dispersions of crystallization processing, the contained polycrstalline solidification in low gravity, the containerless processing of ferromagnetic materials, and the containerless processing technology. The instrumentation operations, payload power relay anomaly, relay postflight operational test, and relay postflight shock test are reported.

  5. Analytical support for SPAR experiment 76-36. [thermal, convective and rotational fluid flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bourgeois, S. V.; Grodzka, P. G.; Pond, J. E.; Spradley, L. W.

    1977-01-01

    The apparatus, materials, and procedures used in an analysis of thermal, convective, and rotational fluid flow for a second series of rocket experiments of dendrite growth are described. A constitutive supercooling criterion was calculated from the thermal data. A convection analysis was made of the various cases to ensure that convective velocities will not exceed about .01 cm/sec in the low-g tests. Damping times for fluid flow generated by rocket spin-up and spin-down were also determined, so that the conditions for this experiment are generally the same as those for the SPAR experiment 74-21 study of ammonium chloride low-g crystallizations.

  6. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    PubMed

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  7. Advanced grid-stiffened composite shells for applications in heavy-lift helicopter rotor blade spars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narayanan Nampy, Sreenivas

    Modern rotor blades are constructed using composite materials to exploit their superior structural performance compared to metals. Helicopter rotor blade spars are conventionally designed as monocoque structures. Blades of the proposed Heavy Lift Helicopter are envisioned to be as heavy as 800 lbs when designed using the monocoque spar design. A new and innovative design is proposed to replace the conventional spar designs with light weight grid-stiffened composite shell. Composite stiffened shells have been known to provide excellent strength to weight ratio and damage tolerance with an excellent potential to reduce weight. Conventional stringer--rib stiffened construction is not suitable for rotor blade spars since they are limited in generating high torsion stiffness that is required for aeroelastic stability of the rotor. As a result, off-axis (helical) stiffeners must be provided. This is a new design space where innovative modeling techniques are needed. The structural behavior of grid-stiffened structures under axial, bending, and torsion loads, typically experienced by rotor blades need to be accurately predicted. The overall objective of the present research is to develop and integrate the necessary design analysis tools to conduct a feasibility study in employing grid-stiffened shells for heavy-lift rotor blade spars. Upon evaluating the limitations in state-of-the-art analytical models in predicting the axial, bending, and torsion stiffness coefficients of grid and grid-stiffened structures, a new analytical model was developed. The new analytical model based on the smeared stiffness approach was developed employing the stiffness matrices of the constituent members of the grid structure such as an arch, helical, or straight beam representing circumferential, helical, and longitudinal stiffeners. This analysis has the capability to model various stiffening configurations such as angle-grid, ortho-grid, and general-grid. Analyses were performed using an

  8. Graphics and composite material computer program enhancements for SPAR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farley, G. L.; Baker, D. J.

    1980-01-01

    User documentation is provided for additional computer programs developed for use in conjunction with SPAR. These programs plot digital data, simplify input for composite material section properties, and compute lamina stresses and strains. Sample problems are presented including execution procedures, program input, and graphical output.

  9. Determining aerodynamic conductance of spar chambers from energy balance measurements

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The aerodynamic conductance (gA) of SPAR chambers was determined from measurements of energy balance and canopy temperature over a peanut canopy. gA was calculated from the slope of sensible heat flux (H) versus canopy-to-air temperature difference. H and the canopy-to-air temperature were varied by...

  10. Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

    SciTech Connect

    2014-02-10

    RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant status are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.

  11. Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

    2014-02-10

    RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant statusmore » are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.« less

  12. Time-Motion and Biological Responses in Simulated Mixed Martial Arts Sparring Matches.

    PubMed

    Coswig, Victor S; Ramos, Solange de P; Del Vecchio, Fabrício B

    2016-08-01

    Coswig, VS, Ramos, SdP, and Del Vecchio, FB. Time-motion and biological responses in simulated mixed martial arts sparring matches. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2156-2163, 2016-Simulated matches are a relevant component of training for mixed martial arts (MMA) athletes. This study aimed to characterize time-motion responses and investigate physiological stress and neuromuscular changes related to MMA sparring matches. Thirteen athletes with an average age of 25 ± 5 years, body mass of 81.3 ± 9.5 kg, height of 176.2 ± 5.5 cm, and time of practice in MMA of 39 ± 25 months participated in the study. The fighters executed three 5-minute rounds with 1-minute intervals. Blood and salivary samples were collected and physical tests and psychometric questionnaires administered at 3 time points: before (PRE), immediately after (POST), and 48 hours after the combat (48 h). Statistical analysis applied analysis of variance for repeated measurements. In biochemical analysis, significant changes (p ≤ 0.05) were identified between PRE and POST (glucose: 80.3 ± 12.7 to 156.5 ± 19.1 mg·ml; lactate: 4 ± 1.7 to 15.6 ± 4.8 mmol·dl), POST and 48 hours (glucose: 156.5 ± 19.1 to 87.6 ± 15.5 mg·ml; lactate: 15.6 ± 4.8 to 2.9 ± 3.5 mmol·dl; urea: 44.1 ± 8.9 to 36.3 ± 7.8 mg·ml), and PRE and 48 hours (creatine kinase [CK]: 255.8 ± 137.4 to 395.9 ± 188.7 U/L). In addition, time-motion analyses showed a total high:low intensity of 1:2 and an effort:pause ratio of 1:3. In conclusion, simulated MMA sparring matches feature moderate to high intensity and a low degree of musculoskeletal damage, which can be seen by absence of physical performance and decrease in CK. Results of the study indicate that sparring training could be introduced into competitive microcycles to improve technical and tactical aspects of MMA matches, due to the high motor specificity and low muscle damage. PMID:26817739

  13. Time-Motion and Biological Responses in Simulated Mixed Martial Arts Sparring Matches.

    PubMed

    Coswig, Victor S; Ramos, Solange de P; Del Vecchio, Fabrício B

    2016-08-01

    Coswig, VS, Ramos, SdP, and Del Vecchio, FB. Time-motion and biological responses in simulated mixed martial arts sparring matches. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2156-2163, 2016-Simulated matches are a relevant component of training for mixed martial arts (MMA) athletes. This study aimed to characterize time-motion responses and investigate physiological stress and neuromuscular changes related to MMA sparring matches. Thirteen athletes with an average age of 25 ± 5 years, body mass of 81.3 ± 9.5 kg, height of 176.2 ± 5.5 cm, and time of practice in MMA of 39 ± 25 months participated in the study. The fighters executed three 5-minute rounds with 1-minute intervals. Blood and salivary samples were collected and physical tests and psychometric questionnaires administered at 3 time points: before (PRE), immediately after (POST), and 48 hours after the combat (48 h). Statistical analysis applied analysis of variance for repeated measurements. In biochemical analysis, significant changes (p ≤ 0.05) were identified between PRE and POST (glucose: 80.3 ± 12.7 to 156.5 ± 19.1 mg·ml; lactate: 4 ± 1.7 to 15.6 ± 4.8 mmol·dl), POST and 48 hours (glucose: 156.5 ± 19.1 to 87.6 ± 15.5 mg·ml; lactate: 15.6 ± 4.8 to 2.9 ± 3.5 mmol·dl; urea: 44.1 ± 8.9 to 36.3 ± 7.8 mg·ml), and PRE and 48 hours (creatine kinase [CK]: 255.8 ± 137.4 to 395.9 ± 188.7 U/L). In addition, time-motion analyses showed a total high:low intensity of 1:2 and an effort:pause ratio of 1:3. In conclusion, simulated MMA sparring matches feature moderate to high intensity and a low degree of musculoskeletal damage, which can be seen by absence of physical performance and decrease in CK. Results of the study indicate that sparring training could be introduced into competitive microcycles to improve technical and tactical aspects of MMA matches, due to the high motor specificity and low muscle damage.

  14. Regular paths in SparQL: querying the NCI Thesaurus.

    PubMed

    Detwiler, Landon T; Suciu, Dan; Brinkley, James F

    2008-01-01

    OWL, the Web Ontology Language, provides syntax and semantics for representing knowledge for the semantic web. Many of the constructs of OWL have a basis in the field of description logics. While the formal underpinnings of description logics have lead to a highly computable language, it has come at a cognitive cost. OWL ontologies are often unintuitive to readers lacking a strong logic background. In this work we describe GLEEN, a regular path expression library, which extends the RDF query language SparQL to support complex path expressions over OWL and other RDF-based ontologies. We illustrate the utility of GLEEN by showing how it can be used in a query-based approach to defining simpler, more intuitive views of OWL ontologies. In particular we show how relatively simple GLEEN-enhanced SparQL queries can create views of the OWL version of the NCI Thesaurus that match the views generated by the web-based NCI browser.

  15. Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

    2015-01-01

    Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

  16. Impact resistance of spar-shell composite fan blades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graff, J.; Stoltze, L.; Varholak, E. M.

    1973-01-01

    Composite spar-shell fan blades for a 1.83 meter (6 feet) diameter fan stage were fabricated and tested in a whirling arm facility to evaluate foreign object damage (FOD) resistance. The blades were made by adhesively bonding boron-epoxy shells on titanium spars and then adhesively bonding an Inconel 625 sheath on the leading edge. The rotating blades were individually tested at a tip speed of 800 feet per second. Impacting media used were gravel, rivets, bolt, nut, ice balls, simulated birds, and a real bird. Incidence angles were typical of those which might be experienced by STOL aircraft. The tests showed that blades of the design tested in this program have satisfactory impact resistance to small objects such as gravel, rivets, nuts, bolts, and two inch diameter ice balls. The blades suffered nominal damage when impacted with one-pound birds (9 to 10 ounce slice size). However, the shell was removed from the spar for a larger slice size.

  17. Object Oriented Risk Analysis Workshop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pons, M. Güell I.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2009-04-01

    In the framework of the RISET Project (Interfaculty Network of Support to Education and Technology) an educational tool for introducing risk analysis has been developed. This workshop enables to carry a group of students (role-play game) through a step-by-step process of risk identification and quantification. The aim is to assess risk in a characteristic alpine village regarding natural hazards (rockfall, snow avalanche, flooding…) and is oriented to affected objects such as buildings, infrastructures... The workshop contains the following steps: 1.- Planning of the study and definition of stakeholders 2.- Hazard identification 3.- Risk analysis 4.- Risk assessment 5.- Proposition of mitigation measures 6- Risk management and cost-benefit analysis. During the process, information related to past events and useful concepts are provided in order to bring up discussion and decision making. The Risk Matrix and other graphical tools allow having a visual representation of the risk level and help to prioritize counter measures. At the end of the workshop, there is the possibility to compare the results between different groups and print out a summarizing report. This approach provides a rapid and comprehensible risk evaluation. The workshop is accessible from the internet and will be used for educational purposes at bachelor and master level as well as for external persons dealing with risk analysis.

  18. The Components of Microbiological Risk Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Serraino, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The paper describes the process of risk analysis in a food safety perspective. The steps of risk analysis defined as a process consisting of three interconnected components (risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication) are analysed. The different components of the risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are further described. PMID:27800384

  19. Risk/benefit analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Crouch, E.A.C.; Wilson, R.

    1982-01-01

    The Reagan administration is intent on rolling back regulations it considers unwise to give new life to American industry, but regulations were instituted to protect individuals against long-term hazards. The authors believe these hazards must be assessed before a regulation is modified, suspended, or implemented. They point out the problems inherent in defining, perceiving, and estimating risk. Throughout, they combine theoretical discussions with actual case studies covering the risk associated with nuclear power plants, saccharin use, mass chest radiography, and others. They believe that risk assessment should be distinct from decision making, with the risk assessor supplying clear and objective information about hazards and the probability of damage as well as pointing out the uncertainties to policy makers. 149 references, 29 figures, 8 tables.

  20. Budget Risk & Prioritization Analysis Tool

    2010-12-31

    BRPAtool performs the following: •Assists managers in making solid decisions on what scope/activities to reduce and/or eliminate, to meet constrained budgets, based on multiple risk factors •Enables analysis of different budget scenarios •Can analyze risks and cost for each activity based on technical, quantifiable risk criteria and management-determined risks •Real-time analysis •Enables managers to determine the multipliers and where funding is best applied •Promotes solid budget defense

  1. Experimental and analytical investigation of dynamic characteristics of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lake, Renee C.; Izadpanah, Amir P.; Baucom, Robert M.

    1993-01-01

    The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite spars was manufactured with four plies of graphite-epoxy cloth prepreg. These spars were noncircular in cross-section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three different cross-sectional geometries were developed: D-shape, square, and flattened ellipse. Three spars of each type were fabricated to assess the degree of repeatability in the manufacturing process of extension-twist-coupled structures. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models. Five global modes were identified within the frequency range from 0 to 2000 Hz for each spar. The experimental results for only one D-shape spar could be determined, however, and agreed within 13.8 percent of the analytical results. Frequencies corresponding to the five global modes for the three square spars agreed within 9.5, 11.6, and 8.5 percent of the respective analytical results and for the three elliptical spars agreed within 4.9, 7.7, and 9.6 percent of the respective analytical results.

  2. Contests with deadly weapons: telson sparring in mantis shrimp (Stomatopoda).

    PubMed

    Green, P A; Patek, S N

    2015-09-01

    Mantis shrimp strike with extreme impact forces that are deadly to prey. They also strike conspecifics during territorial contests, yet theoretical and empirical findings in aggressive behaviour research suggest competitors should resolve conflicts using signals before escalating to dangerous combat. We tested how Neogonodactylus bredini uses two ritualized behaviours to resolve size-matched contests: meral spread visual displays and telson (tailplate) strikes. We predicted that (i) most contests would be resolved by meral spreads, (ii) meral spreads would reliably signal strike force and (iii) strike force would predict contest success. The results were unexpected for each prediction. Contests were not resolved by meral spreads, instead escalating to striking in 33 of 34 experiments. The size of meral spread components did not strongly correlate with strike force. Strike force did not predict contest success; instead, winners delivered more strikes. Size-matched N. bredini avoid deadly combat not by visual displays, but by ritualistically and repeatedly striking each other's telsons until the loser retreats. We term this behaviour 'telson sparring', analogous to sparring in other weapon systems. We present an alternative framework for mantis shrimp contests in which the fight itself is the signal, serving as a non-lethal indicator of aggressive persistence or endurance. PMID:26399976

  3. Contests with deadly weapons: telson sparring in mantis shrimp (Stomatopoda)

    PubMed Central

    Green, P. A.; Patek, S. N.

    2015-01-01

    Mantis shrimp strike with extreme impact forces that are deadly to prey. They also strike conspecifics during territorial contests, yet theoretical and empirical findings in aggressive behaviour research suggest competitors should resolve conflicts using signals before escalating to dangerous combat. We tested how Neogonodactylus bredini uses two ritualized behaviours to resolve size-matched contests: meral spread visual displays and telson (tailplate) strikes. We predicted that (i) most contests would be resolved by meral spreads, (ii) meral spreads would reliably signal strike force and (iii) strike force would predict contest success. The results were unexpected for each prediction. Contests were not resolved by meral spreads, instead escalating to striking in 33 of 34 experiments. The size of meral spread components did not strongly correlate with strike force. Strike force did not predict contest success; instead, winners delivered more strikes. Size-matched N. bredini avoid deadly combat not by visual displays, but by ritualistically and repeatedly striking each other's telsons until the loser retreats. We term this behaviour ‘telson sparring', analogous to sparring in other weapon systems. We present an alternative framework for mantis shrimp contests in which the fight itself is the signal, serving as a non-lethal indicator of aggressive persistence or endurance. PMID:26399976

  4. Initial Decision and Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-29

    Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

  5. Modeling human reliability analysis using MIDAS

    SciTech Connect

    Boring, R. L.

    2006-07-01

    This paper documents current efforts to infuse human reliability analysis (HRA) into human performance simulation. The Idaho National Laboratory is teamed with NASA Ames Research Center to bridge the SPAR-H HRA method with NASA's Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) for use in simulating and modeling the human contribution to risk in nuclear power plant control room operations. It is anticipated that the union of MIDAS and SPAR-H will pave the path for cost-effective, timely, and valid simulated control room operators for studying current and next generation control room configurations. This paper highlights considerations for creating the dynamic HRA framework necessary for simulation, including event dependency and granularity. This paper also highlights how the SPAR-H performance shaping factors can be modeled in MIDAS across static, dynamic, and initiator conditions common to control room scenarios. This paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the workload factors currently in MIDAS and the performance shaping factors in SPAR-H. (authors)

  6. Sensitivity Analysis Using Risk Measures.

    PubMed

    Tsanakas, Andreas; Millossovich, Pietro

    2016-01-01

    In a quantitative model with uncertain inputs, the uncertainty of the output can be summarized by a risk measure. We propose a sensitivity analysis method based on derivatives of the output risk measure, in the direction of model inputs. This produces a global sensitivity measure, explicitly linking sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We focus on the case of distortion risk measures, defined as weighted averages of output percentiles, and prove a representation of the sensitivity measure that can be evaluated on a Monte Carlo sample, as a weighted average of gradients over the input space. When the analytical model is unknown or hard to work with, nonparametric techniques are used for gradient estimation. This process is demonstrated through the example of a nonlinear insurance loss model. Furthermore, the proposed framework is extended in order to measure sensitivity to constant model parameters, uncertain statistical parameters, and random factors driving dependence between model inputs.

  7. Risk analysis of exploration plays

    SciTech Connect

    Rose, P.R.

    1996-08-01

    The most difficult and crucial decision in petroleum exploration is not which prospect to drill, but rather, which new play to enter. Such a decision, whether ultimately profitable or not, commits the Organization to years of involvement, expenditures of $millions, and hundreds of man-years of effort. Even though uncertainties and risks are high, organizations commonly make the new-play decision in a disjointed, non-analytic, even superficial way. The economic consequences of a bad play choice can be disastrous. Using established principles of prospect risk analysis, modern petroleum exploration organizations routinely assign economic value to individual prospects, but they actually operate via exploration programs in plays and trends. Accordingly, the prospect is the economic unit of exploration, whereas the play is the operational unit. Plays can be successfully analyzed as full-cycle economic risk ventures, however, using many principles of prospect risk analysis. Economic measures such as Expected Present Value, DCFROR, etc. apply equally to plays or prospects. The predicted field-size distribution of the play is analogous to the forecast prospect reserves distribution, Economic truncation applies to both. Variance of play reserves is usually much greater than for prospect reserves. Geologic chance factors such as P{sub reservoir}, P{sub generation}, etc., must be distinguished as independent or shared among prospects in the play, so they should be defined so as to apply equally to the play and to its constituent prospects. They are analogous to multiple objectives on a prospect, and are handled differently in performing the risk analysis.

  8. Risk analysis of exploration plays

    SciTech Connect

    Rose, P.R.

    1996-06-01

    The most difficult and crucial decision in petroleum exploration is not which prospect to drill, but rather, which new play to enter. Such a decision, whether ultimately profitable or not, commits the Organization to years of involvement, expenditures of $millions, and hundreds of man-years of effort. Even though uncertainties and risks are high, organizations commonly make the new-play decision in a disjointed, non-analytic, even superficial way. The economic consequences of a bad play choice can be disastrous. Using established principles of prospect risk analysis, modern petroleum exploration organizations routinely assign economic value to individual prospects, but they actually operate via exploration programs in plays and trends. Accordingly, the prospect is the economic unit of exploration, whereas the play is the operational unit. Plays can be successfully analyzed as full-cycle economic risk ventures, however, using many principles of prospect risk analysis. Economic measures such as Expected Present Value, DCFROR, etc. apply equally to plays or prospects. The predicted field-size distribution of the play is analogous to the forecast prospect reserves distribution. Economic truncation applies to both. Variance of play reserves is usually much greater than for prospect reserves. Geologic chance factors such as P{sub reservoir}, P{sub generation}, etc., must be distinguished as independent or shared among prospects in the play, so they should be defined so as to apply equally to the play and to its constituent prospects. They are analogous to multiple objectives on a prospect, and are handled differently in performing the risk analysis.

  9. Applicability of Iceland spar as a stone model standard for lithotripsy devices.

    PubMed

    Blitz, B F; Lyon, E S; Gerber, G S

    1995-12-01

    The identification of a universal stone model standard would enable reproducible fragmentation data useful for the design, evaluation, and comparison of various lithotripsy devices. The clinical benefits of such a stone model include the elucidation of setting parameters that would optimize fragmentation strategies. Iceland spar is a pure form of calcite (CaCO3) that was subjected to experimental disintegration by electrohydraulic lithotripsy and extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy. Iceland spar was fragmented with both lithotripsy methods in a reproducible fashion. The degree of fragmentation was directly related to alterations in either power or shock frequency. Iceland spar is radiopaque, inexpensive, easily obtained, homogenous in composition, and sizable. Iceland spar meets a variety of stone model criteria, warranting its continued investigation as a potential stone model standard.

  10. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  11. An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Sinpyo; Lee, Inwon; Park, Seong Hyeon; Lee, Cheolmin; Chun, Ho-Hwan; Lim, Hee Chang

    2015-05-01

    An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine is presented. The effects of the Center of Gravity (COG), mooring line spring constant, and fair-lead location on the turbine's motion in response to regular waves are investigated. Experimental results show that for a typical mooring system of a SPAR buoy-type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT), the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of the turbine can be considered negligible. However, the pitch decreases notably as the COG increases. The COG and spring constant of the mooring line have a negligible effect on the fairlead displacement. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis show that the wind turbine motion and its sensitivity to changes in the mooring system and COG are very large near resonant frequencies. The test results can be used to validate numerical simulation tools for FOWTs.

  12. An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Sinpyo; Lee, Inwon; Park, Seong Hyeon; Lee, Cheolmin; Chun, Ho-Hwan; Lim, Hee Chang

    2015-09-01

    An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine is presented. The effects of the Center of Gravity (COG), mooring line spring constant, and fair-lead location on the turbine's motion in response to regular waves are investigated. Experimental results show that for a typical mooring system of a SPAR buoy-type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT), the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of the turbine can be considered negligible. However, the pitch decreases notably as the COG increases. The COG and spring constant of the mooring line have a negligible effect on the fairlead displacement. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis show that the wind turbine motion and its sensitivity to changes in the mooring system and COG are very large near resonant frequencies. The test results can be used to validate numerical simulation tools for FOWTs.

  13. Mixing of two liquid metals on spar payload due to spin-up and spin-down

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schafer, C. F.

    1977-01-01

    Unexpected results from SPAR experiments, directed at obtaining fine dispersions of metal systems that in a 1-g environment tend to segregate very rapidly, were considered. The physical processes occurring in fluid samples, such as the SPAR samples before solidification, were shown to be insufficient to produce a well mixed liquid by the time solidification was initiated. This would result in solidified samples with the type of segregation noted in the SPAR samples. Experimental evidence and analytical arguments are presented.

  14. SparCLeS: dynamic l₁ sparse classifiers with level sets for robust beard/moustache detection and segmentation.

    PubMed

    Le, T Hoang Ngan; Luu, Khoa; Savvides, Marios

    2013-08-01

    Robust facial hair detection and segmentation is a highly valued soft biometric attribute for carrying out forensic facial analysis. In this paper, we propose a novel and fully automatic system, called SparCLeS, for beard/moustache detection and segmentation in challenging facial images. SparCLeS uses the multiscale self-quotient (MSQ) algorithm to preprocess facial images and deal with illumination variation. Histogram of oriented gradients (HOG) features are extracted from the preprocessed images and a dynamic sparse classifier is built using these features to classify a facial region as either containing skin or facial hair. A level set based approach, which makes use of the advantages of both global and local information, is then used to segment the regions of a face containing facial hair. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed system in detecting and segmenting facial hair regions in images drawn from three databases, i.e., the NIST Multiple Biometric Grand Challenge (MBGC) still face database, the NIST Color Facial Recognition Technology FERET database, and the Labeled Faces in the Wild (LFW) database.

  15. [The management of risks by the global risk analysis].

    PubMed

    Desroches, A

    2013-05-01

    After a reminder on the fundamental concepts of the management of risk, the author describes the overall analysis of risk (AGR), name given by the author to the up-to-date APR method which after several changes of the initial process aims to cover a perimeter of analysis and broader management both at the level of structural that business risks of any kind throughout the system development life cycle, of the study of its feasibility to dismantling.

  16. East Spar development: NCC buoy--The vertical submarine

    SciTech Connect

    Boyle, E.C.

    1998-02-01

    The remote East Spar gas/condensate field has been developed using a subsea production system operated by an unmanned navigation, communication, and control (NCC) buoy. The use of this type of system allows control of the field from any convenient location, with the command-response time and the cost of the facility almost completely independent of the distance to the shore or host facility. Successes during the project (such as using model tests to prove the concept and using a tension-leg mooring system to reduce the motion response of the buoy) are discussed and compared to failures, like the weight and size growth of the structure, caused as the design requirements were finalized and external factors changed. The operation and layout of this facility is summarized, showing why it was described as a vertical submarine. Conclusions are drawn about the use of an NCC buoy to develop this field, showing that the main objectives have been achieved. The limited operating experience to date is also considered in the review of the design objectives. The paper concludes with the possibilities for the future of this type of concept.

  17. Instrumented sparring vest to aid in martial arts scoring.

    PubMed

    Harrigan, Katie; Logan, Rachel; Sluti, Anne; Rogge, Renee

    2006-01-01

    Competitors in certain martial arts, such as Taekwondo, are required to wear protective vests during competition. This article outlines the design and fabrication of an instrumented martial arts sparring vest that will aid in martial arts scoring, which is currently a work in progress. After fabrication, this instrumented vest and associated system will not only provide the same protection as before modification, but will also report the location and force magnitude of strikes applied to the vest. This will aid in scoring of martial arts competitions, as it will determine if a strike is forceful enough to be considered deliberate and therefore is a valid point-scoring strike. This will make scoring of competitions unbiased and equal for all competitors, something that is difficult to achieve based solely on a judge's assessment by observation. The system will also indicate the probable injury resulting from a strike, for example, no injury, bruising or bone fracture. If a competitor's strike force is excessive and serious injury could result, the system will indicate this so action can be taken, such as penalty or disqualification of a competitor. Both tissue testing and force testing will be conducted prior to vest fabrication to determine estimates of forces that will damage tissue and typical forces experienced during competition. After testing is complete, the system will be fabricated and the testing results will be implemented into the associated software.

  18. Variable Stiffness Spar Wind-Tunnel Model Development and Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Florance, James R.; Heeg, Jennifer; Spain, Charles V.; Ivanco, Thomas G.; Wieseman, Carol D.; Lively, Peter S.

    2004-01-01

    The concept of exploiting wing flexibility to improve aerodynamic performance was investigated in the wind tunnel by employing multiple control surfaces and by varying wing structural stiffness via a Variable Stiffness Spar (VSS) mechanism. High design loads compromised the VSS effectiveness because the aerodynamic wind-tunnel model was much stiffer than desired in order to meet the strength requirements. Results from tests of the model include stiffness and modal data, model deformation data, aerodynamic loads, static control surface derivatives, and fuselage standoff pressure data. Effects of the VSS on the stiffness and modal characteristics, lift curve slope, and control surface effectiveness are discussed. The VSS had the most effect on the rolling moment generated by the leading-edge outboard flap at subsonic speeds. The effects of the VSS for the other control surfaces and speed regimes were less. The difficulties encountered and the ability of the VSS to alter the aeroelastic characteristics of the wing emphasize the need for the development of improved design and construction methods for static aeroelastic models. The data collected and presented is valuable in terms of understanding static aeroelastic wind-tunnel model development.

  19. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W.

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  20. SPAR 5 experiment no. 74-30 agglomeration in immiscible liquids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gelles, S.; Markworth, A. J.

    1979-01-01

    The influence of gravity, cooling rate, and composition on the macro-and microstructure of liquid phase immiscible alloys were researched. Aluminum indium alloys of compositions 30, 40, 70, and 90 weight percent indium were processed aboard two sounding rocket flights, SPAR 2 and SPAR 5. Radiographic and metallographic examination of the SPAR 2 flight and ground base samples showed the expected separation at lg of the ground base alloys into indium rich and aluminum rich layers. The flight alloys produced an aluminum rich core surrounding by indium rich metal. The results obtained from the SPAR 5 40 and 70 weight percent indium alloys were essentially identical to those from SPAR 2. The 30 and 90 weight percent indium alloys also showed massive separation into configuration similar to the 40 and 70 weight percent indium alloys. The 90 weight percent indium alloy showed additional evidence that surface tension induced droplet migration had occurred in this alloy which could at least in part account for the observed structures.

  1. Elasticity tailoring of a composite D-Spar: Progress report for calendar year 1998

    SciTech Connect

    Ong, Cheng-Huat; Tsai, Stephen W.

    1998-08-01

    There are many potential benefits to be gained from the aeroelastic behavior of a wind-turbine blade with bend-twist coupling. However, the ability to manufacture blades with sufficient coupling to provide the desired benefits has yet to be established. This report investigates the feasible (or practical) range of the coupling coefficient that can be obtained on a uniform cross-section composite D-spar, which could be the backbone of a wind-turbine-blade. The most critical parameters are identified and studied across a range of possible values. Various features, such as the geometry, skin thickness, ply distribution, ply materials, and ply orientations, are evaluated for their effect on twist-bend coupling of a D-spar. It is found that sufficient coupling can be built into the D-spar shape, but that carbon-fiber composite plies angled between 15 and 30 degrees to the longitudinal axis may be required.

  2. Direct Adaptive Rejection of Vortex-Induced Disturbances for a Powered SPAR Platform

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    VanZwieten, Tannen S.; Balas, Mark J.; VanZwieten, James H.; Driscoll, Frederick R.

    2009-01-01

    The Rapidly Deployable Stable Platform (RDSP) is a novel vessel designed to be a reconfigurable, stable at-sea platform. It consists of a detachable catamaran and spar, performing missions with the spar extending vertically below the catamaran and hoisting it completely out of the water. Multiple thrusters located along the spar allow it to be actively controlled in this configuration. A controller is presented in this work that uses an adaptive feedback algorithm in conjunction with Direct Adaptive Disturbance Rejection (DADR) to mitigate persistent, vortex-induced disturbances. Given the frequency of a disturbance, the nominal DADR scheme adaptively compensates for its unknown amplitude and phase. This algorithm is extended to adapt to a disturbance frequency that is only coarsely known by including a Phase Locked Loop (PLL). The PLL improves the frequency estimate on-line, allowing the modified controller to reduce vortex-induced motions by more than 95% using achievable thrust inputs.

  3. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chueng, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a risk management approach that allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainties, and to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Demonstrate a planning and risk analysis framework that tightly integrates mathematical optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to solve complex problems.

  4. Risk Analysis and Uncertainty: Implications for Counselling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hassenzahl, David

    2004-01-01

    Over the past two decades, the risk analysis community has made substantial advances in understanding and describing uncertainty. Uncertainty is ubiquitous, complex, both quantitative and qualitative in nature, and often irreducible. Uncertainty thus creates a challenge when using risk analysis to evaluate the rationality of group and individual…

  5. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and...

  6. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and...

  7. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and...

  8. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and...

  9. Carbon Fiber Risk Analysis. [conference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    The scope and status of the effort to assess the risks associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers from civil aircraft is presented. Vulnerability of electrical and electronic equipment to carbon fibers, dispersal of carbon fibers, effectiveness of filtering systems, impact of fiber induced failures, and risk methodology are among the topics covered.

  10. Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The complete genome of a sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae vaccine strain 138spar is 1,838,126 bp in size. The genome has 1892 coding sequences and 82 RNAs. The annotation of the genome is added by the NCBI Prokaryotic Genome Annotation Pipeline. The publishing of this genome will allo...

  11. Evaluation Between Existing and Improved CCF Modeling Using the NRC SPAR Models

    SciTech Connect

    James K. Knudsen

    2010-06-01

    Abstract: The NRC SPAR models currently employ the alpha factor common cause failure (CCF) methodology and model CCF for a group of redundant components as a single “rolled-up” basic event. These SPAR models will be updated to employ a more computationally intensive and accurate approach by expanding the CCF basic events for all active components to include all terms that appear in the Basic Parameter Model (BPM). A discussion is provided to detail the differences between the rolled-up common cause group (CCG) and expanded BPM adjustment concepts based on differences in core damage frequency and individual component importance measures. Lastly, a hypothetical condition is evaluated with a SPAR model to show the difference in results between the current adjustment method (rolled-up CCF events) and the newer method employing all of the expanded terms in the BPM. The event evaluation on the SPAR model employing the expanded terms will be solved using the graphical evaluation module (GEM) and the proposed method discussed in Reference 1.

  12. Carbon Fiber Risk Analysis: Conclusions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    It was concluded that preliminary estimates indicate that the public risk due to accidental release of carbon fiber from air transport aircraft is small. It was also concluded that further work is required to increase confidence in these estimates.

  13. Bridging the two cultures of risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Jasanoff, S. )

    1993-04-01

    During the past 15 years, risk analysis has come of age as an interdisciplinary field of remarkable breadth, nurturing connections among fields as diverse as mathematics, biostatistics, toxicology, and engineering on one hand, and law, psychology, sociology, and economics on the other hand. In this editorial, the author addresses the question: What has the presence of social scientists in the network meant to the substantive development of the field of risk analysis The answers offered here discuss the substantial progress in bridging the two cultures of risk analysis. Emphasis is made of the continual need for monitoring risk analysis. Topics include: the micro-worlds of risk assessment; constraining assumptions; and exchange programs. 14 refs.

  14. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  15. Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.

  16. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... affected; (5) Ease of logical data access to the lost, stolen or improperly accessed data in light of...

  17. SHRIMP U-Pb ages of xenotime and monazite from the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana: Implications for ore genesis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aleinikoff, John N.; Hayes, Timothy S.; Evans, Karl V.; Mazdab, Frank K.; Pillers, Renee M.; Fanning, C. Mark

    2012-01-01

    Xenotime occurs as epitaxial overgrowths on detrital zircons in the Mesoproterozoic Revett Formation (Belt Supergroup) at the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana. The deposit formed during diagenesis of Revett strata, where oxidizing metal-bearing hydrothermal fluids encountered a reducing zone. Samples for geochronology were collected from several mineral zones. Xenotime overgrowths (1–30 μm wide) were found in polished thin sections from five ore and near-ore zones (chalcocite-chlorite, bornite-calcite, galena-calcite, chalcopyrite-ankerite, and pyrite-calcite), but not in more distant zones across the region. Thirty-two in situ SHRIMP U-Pb analyses on xenotime overgrowths yield a weighted average of 207Pb/206Pb ages of 1409 ± 8 Ma, interpreted as the time of mineralization. This age is about 40 to 60 m.y. after deposition of the Revett Formation. Six other xenotime overgrowths formed during a younger event at 1304 ± 19 Ma. Several isolated grains of xenotime have 207Pb/206Pb ages in the range of 1.67 to 1.51 Ga, and thus are considered detrital in origin. Trace element data can distinguish Spar Lake xenotimes of different origins. Based on in situ SHRIMP analysis, detrital xenotime has heavy rare earth elements-enriched patterns similar to those of igneous xenotime, whereas xenotime overgrowths of inferred hydrothermal origin have hump-shaped (i.e., middle rare earth elements-enriched) patterns. The two ages of hydrothermal xenotime can be distinguished by slightly different rare earth elements patterns. In addition, 1409 Ma xenotime overgrowths have higher Eu and Gd contents than the 1304 Ma overgrowths. Most xenotime overgrowths from the Spar Lake deposit have elevated As concentrations, further suggesting a genetic relationship between the xenotime formation and Cu-Ag mineralization.

  18. Adversarial risk analysis for counterterrorism modeling.

    PubMed

    Rios, Jesus; Rios Insua, David

    2012-05-01

    Recent large-scale terrorist attacks have raised interest in models for resource allocation against terrorist threats. The unifying theme in this area is the need to develop methods for the analysis of allocation decisions when risks stem from the intentional actions of intelligent adversaries. Most approaches to these problems have a game-theoretic flavor although there are also several interesting decision-analytic-based proposals. One of them is the recently introduced framework for adversarial risk analysis, which deals with decision-making problems that involve intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. We explore how adversarial risk analysis addresses some standard counterterrorism models: simultaneous defend-attack models, sequential defend-attack-defend models, and sequential defend-attack models with private information. For each model, we first assess critically what would be a typical game-theoretic approach and then provide the corresponding solution proposed by the adversarial risk analysis framework, emphasizing how to coherently assess a predictive probability model of the adversary's actions, in a context in which we aim at supporting decisions of a defender versus an attacker. This illustrates the application of adversarial risk analysis to basic counterterrorism models that may be used as basic building blocks for more complex risk analysis of counterterrorism problems. PMID:22150163

  19. Fuzzy risk analysis for nuclear safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Zardecki, A.

    1993-05-01

    Analysis of a safeguards system, based on the notion of fuzzy sets and linguistic variables, concerns such as complexity and inherent imprecision in estimating the possibility of loss or compromise. The automated risk analysis allows the risk to be determined for an entire system based on estimates for lowest level components and the component proportion. In addition, for each component (asset) the most effective combination of protection mechanisms against a given set of threats is determined. A distinction between bar and featured risk is made.

  20. Fuzzy risk analysis for nuclear safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Zardecki, A.

    1993-01-01

    Analysis of a safeguards system, based on the notion of fuzzy sets and linguistic variables, concerns such as complexity and inherent imprecision in estimating the possibility of loss or compromise. The automated risk analysis allows the risk to be determined for an entire system based on estimates for lowest level components and the component proportion. In addition, for each component (asset) the most effective combination of protection mechanisms against a given set of threats is determined. A distinction between bar and featured risk is made.

  1. Fire Risk Implications in Safety Analysis Reports

    SciTech Connect

    Blanchard, A.

    1999-03-31

    Fire can be a significant risk for facilities that store and handle radiological material. Such events must be evaluated as part of a comprehensive safety analysis. SRS has been developing methods to evaluate radiological fire risk in such facilities. These methods combined with the analysis techniques proposed by DOE-STD-3009-94 have provided a better understanding of how fire risks in nuclear facilities should be managed. To ensure that these new insights are properly disseminated the DOE Savannah River Office and the Defense Nuclear Facility Safety Board (DNFSB) requested Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) prepare this paper.

  2. Starlink corn: a risk analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Bucchini, Luca; Goldman, Lynn R

    2002-01-01

    Modern biotechnology has dramatically increased our ability to alter the agronomic traits of plants. Among the novel traits that biotechnology has made available, an important group includes Bacillus thuringiensis-derived insect resistance. This technology has been applied to potatoes, cotton, and corn. Benefits of Bt crops, and biotechnology generally, can be realized only if risks are assessed and managed properly. The case of Starlink corn, a plant modified with a gene that encodes the Bt protein Cry9c, was a severe test of U.S. regulatory agencies. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency had restricted its use to animal feed due to concern about the potential for allergenicity. However, Starlink corn was later found throughout the human food supply, resulting in food recalls by the Food and Drug Administration and significant disruption of the food supply. Here we examine the regulatory history of Starlink, the assessment framework employed by the U.S. government, assumptions and information gaps, and the key elements of government efforts to manage the product. We explore the impacts on regulations, science, and society and conclude that only significant advances in our understanding of food allergies and improvements in monitoring and enforcement will avoid similar events in the future. Specifically, we need to develop a stronger fundamental basis for predicting allergic sensitization and reactions if novel proteins are to be introduced in this fashion. Mechanisms are needed to assure that worker and community aeroallergen risks are considered. Requirements are needed for the development of valid assays so that enforcement and post market surveillance activities can be conducted. PMID:11781159

  3. Multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management.

    PubMed

    Hämäläinen, R P; Lindstedt, M R; Sinkko, K

    2000-08-01

    Radiation protection authorities have seen a potential for applying multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management and planning to deal with conflicting objectives, different parties involved, and uncertainties. This type of approach is expected to help in the following areas: to ensure that all relevant attributes are considered in decision making; to enhance communication between the concerned parties, including the public; and to provide a method for explicitly including risk analysis in the process. A multiattribute utility theory analysis was used to select a strategy for protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident. The value-focused approach and the use of a neutral facilitator were identified as being useful. PMID:11051070

  4. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  5. Design, fabrication, and test of a steel spar wind turbine blade

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sullivan, T. L.; Sirocky, P. J., Jr.; Viterna, L. A.

    1979-01-01

    The design and fabrication of wind turbine blades based on 60 foot steel spars are discussed. Performance and blade load information is given and compared to analytical prediction. In addition, performance is compared to that of the original MOD-O aluminum blades. Costs for building the two blades are given, and a projection is made for the cost in mass production. Design improvements to reduce weight and improve fatigue life are suggested.

  6. Effect of element density on the NASTRAN calculated mechanical and thermal stresses of a spar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    A NASTRAN model of a spar was examined to determine the sensitivity of calculated axial thermal stresses and bending stresses to changes in element density of the model. The thermal stresses calculated with three different element densities resulted in drastically differing values. The position of the constraint also significantly affected the value of the calculated thermal stresses. Mechanical stresses calculated from an applied loading were insensitive to element density.

  7. Program for impact testing of spar-shell fan blades, test report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ravenhall, R.; Salemme, C. T.

    1978-01-01

    Six filament-wound, composite spar-shell fan blades were impact tested in a whirligig relative to foreign object damage resulting from ingestion of birds into the fan blades of a QCSEE-type engine. Four of the blades were tested by injecting a simulated two pound bird into the path of the rotating blade and two were tested by injecting a starling into the path of the blade.

  8. Confronting deep uncertainties in risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-10-01

    How can risk analysts help to improve policy and decision making when the correct probabilistic relation between alternative acts and their probable consequences is unknown? This practical challenge of risk management with model uncertainty arises in problems from preparing for climate change to managing emerging diseases to operating complex and hazardous facilities safely. We review constructive methods for robust and adaptive risk analysis under deep uncertainty. These methods are not yet as familiar to many risk analysts as older statistical and model-based methods, such as the paradigm of identifying a single "best-fitting" model and performing sensitivity analyses for its conclusions. They provide genuine breakthroughs for improving predictions and decisions when the correct model is highly uncertain. We demonstrate their potential by summarizing a variety of practical risk management applications. PMID:22489541

  9. Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

    PubMed Central

    Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

    2009-01-01

    This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

  10. Molecular characterization of Anthurium genotypes by using DNA fingerprinting and SPAR markers.

    PubMed

    Souza Neto, J D; Soares, T C B; Motta, L B; Cabral, P D S; Silva, J A

    2014-07-02

    We characterized single primer amplification reaction (SPAR) molecular markers from 20 genotypes of Anthurium andraeanum Lind., including 3 from commercial varieties and 17 from 2 communities in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil. Twenty-four SPAR, consisting of 7 random amplified polymorphic DNA and 17 inter-simple sequence repeat markers were used to estimate the genetic diversity of 20 Anthurium accessions. The set of SPAR markers generated 288 bands and showed an average polymorphism percentage of 93.39%, ranging from 71.43 to 100%. The polymorphism information content (PIC) of the random amplified polymorphic DNA primers averaged 0.364 and ranged from 0.258 to 0.490. Primer OPF 06 showed the lowest PIC, while OPAM 14 was the highest. The average PIC of the inter-simple sequence repeat primers was 0.299, with values ranging from 0.196 to 0.401. Primer UBC 845 had the lowest PIC (0.196), while primer UCB 810 had the highest (0.401). By using the complement of Jaccard's similarity index and unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean clustering, 5 clusters were formed with a cophenetic correlation coefficient of 0.8093, indicating an acceptable clustering consistency. However, no genotype clustering patterns agreed with the morphological data. The Anthurium genotypes investigated in this study are a germplasm source for conservational research and may be used in improvement programs for this species.

  11. Demonstration of Enabling Spar-Shell Cooling Technology in Gas Turbines

    SciTech Connect

    Downs, James

    2014-12-29

    In this Advanced Turbine Program-funded Phase III project, Florida Turbine Technologies, Inc. (FTT) has developed and tested, at a pre-commercial prototypescale, spar-shell turbine airfoils in a commercial gas turbine. The airfoil development is based upon FTT’s research and development to date in Phases I and II of Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) grants. During this program, FTT has partnered with an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), Siemens Energy, to produce sparshell turbine components for the first pre-commercial prototype test in an F-Class industrial gas turbine engine and has successfully completed validation testing. This project will further the commercialization of this new technology in F-frame and other highly cooled turbine airfoil applications. FTT, in cooperation with Siemens, intends to offer the spar-shell vane as a first-tier supplier for retrofit applications and new large frame industrial gas turbines. The market for the spar-shell vane for these machines is huge. According to Forecast International, 3,211 new gas turbines units (in the >50MW capacity size range) will be ordered in ten years from 2007 to 2016. FTT intends to enter the market in a low rate initial production. After one year of successful extended use, FTT will quickly ramp up production and sales, with a target to capture 1% of the market within the first year and 10% within 5 years (2020).

  12. SPAR X Technical Report for Experiment 76-22 Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bethin, J.

    1984-01-01

    The effects of gravity on Bridgman-Stockbarger directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi were studied in reduced gravity aboard the SPAR X flight and compared to normal-gravity investigations and previous eutectic Bi/MnBi SPAR flight experiments. The directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi results in either a dendritic structure connected with local cooperative growth or a coupled low volume fraction faceted/non faceted aligned rod eutectic whose Mn macrosegregation, MnBi rod size, interrod spacing, and thermal and magnetic properties are sensitive functions of the solidification processing conditions. Two hypoeutectic and two hypereutectic samples were solidified during 605 sec of furnace travel, with an initial 265 sec low-gravity interval. Comparison Earth-gravity samples were solidified in the same furance assembly under identical processing conditions. Macrosegregation in the low-g samples was consistent with a metastable increase in Mn solubility in the Bi matrix, in partial agreement with previous Bi/MnBi SPAR findings of MnBi volume reduction.

  13. A risk analysis model for radioactive wastes.

    PubMed

    Külahcı, Fatih

    2011-07-15

    Hazardous wastes affect natural environmental systems to a significant extend, and therefore, it is necessary to control their harm through risk analysis. Herein, an effective risk methodology is proposed by considering their uncertain behaviors on stochastic, statistical and probabilistic bases. The basic element is attachment of a convenient probability distribution function (pdf) to a given waste quality measurement sequence. In this paper, (40)K contaminant measurements are adapted for risk assessment application after derivation of necessary fundamental formulations. The spatial contaminant distribution of (40)K is presented in the forms of maps and three-dimensional surfaces.

  14. Acute proliferative retrolental fibroplasia: multivariate risk analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Flynn, J T

    1983-01-01

    This study has presented a two-way analysis of a data set consisting of demographic, diagnostic, and therapeutic variables against the risk of occurrence of APRLF and its location in the retina in a population of 639 infants in birthweights ranging from 600 to 1500 gm. Univariate and multivariate risk analysis techniques were employed to analyze the data. As established from previous studies, birthweight was a powerful predictor of the outcome variable. Oxygen therapy as defined and quantified in this study was not. Duration of ventilatory assistance did seem associated. The population was not uniform. Infants below 1000 gm birthweight had such a high incidence of APRLF that no other exogenous risk factors seemed of significance. Above 1000 gm birthweight, certain factors, particularly duration of ventilation, seemed of predictive strength and significance. Images FIGURE 5 A FIGURE 5 B FIGURE 4 A FIGURE 4 B PMID:6689564

  15. Risk-Stratified Imputation in Survival Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kennedy, Richard E.; Adragni, Kofi P.; Tiwari, Hemant K.; Voeks, Jenifer H.; Brott, Thomas G.; Howard, George

    2013-01-01

    Background Censoring that is dependent on covariates associated with survival can arise in randomized trials due to changes in recruitment and eligibility criteria to minimize withdrawals, potentially leading to biased treatment effect estimates. Imputation approaches have been proposed to address censoring in survival analysis; and while these approaches may provide unbiased estimates of treatment effects, imputation of a large number of outcomes may over- or underestimate the associated variance based on the imputation pool selected. Purpose We propose an improved method, risk-stratified imputation, as an alternative to address withdrawal related to the risk of events in the context of time-to-event analyses. Methods Our algorithm performs imputation from a pool of replacement subjects with similar values of both treatment and covariate(s) of interest, that is, from a risk-stratified sample. This stratification prior to imputation addresses the requirement of time-to-event analysis that censored observations are representative of all other observations in the risk group with similar exposure variables. We compared our risk-stratified imputation to case deletion and bootstrap imputation in a simulated dataset in which the covariate of interest (study withdrawal) was related to treatment. A motivating example from a recent clinical trial is also presented to demonstrate the utility of our method. Results In our simulations, risk-stratified imputation gives estimates of treatment effect comparable to bootstrap and auxiliary variable imputation while avoiding inaccuracies of the latter two in estimating the associated variance. Similar results were obtained in analysis of clinical trial data. Limitations Risk-stratified imputation has little advantage over other imputation methods when covariates of interest are not related to treatment, although its performance is superior when covariates are related to treatment. Risk-stratified imputation is intended for

  16. Selected Tools for Risk Analysis in Logistics Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulińska, Ewa

    2012-03-01

    As each organization aims at managing effective logistics processes, risk factors can and should be controlled through proper system of risk management. Implementation of complex approach to risk management allows for the following: - evaluation of significant risk groups associated with logistics processes implementation, - composition of integrated strategies of risk management, - composition of tools for risk analysis in logistics processes.

  17. Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Boenke, A

    2001-12-01

    The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

  18. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  19. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  20. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  1. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  2. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  3. Tsunamis: Global Exposure and Local Risk Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Glimsdal, S.; Horspool, N.; Griffin, J.; Davies, G.; Frauenfelder, R.

    2014-12-01

    The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a better understanding of the likelihood of tsunami occurrence and potential tsunami inundation, and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was one direct result of this event. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN-ISDR) adopted HFA in January 2005 in order to reduce disaster risk. As an instrument to compare the risk due to different natural hazards, an integrated worldwide study was implemented and published in several Global Assessment Reports (GAR) by UN-ISDR. The results of the global earthquake induced tsunami hazard and exposure analysis for a return period of 500 years are presented. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods (PTHA) are used. The resulting hazard levels for both methods are compared quantitatively for selected areas. The comparison demonstrates that the analysis is rather rough, which is expected for a study aiming at average trends on a country level across the globe. It is shown that populous Asian countries account for the largest absolute number of people living in tsunami prone areas, more than 50% of the total exposed people live in Japan. Smaller nations like Macao and the Maldives are among the most exposed by population count. Exposed nuclear power plants are limited to Japan, China, India, Taiwan, and USA. On the contrary, a local tsunami vulnerability and risk analysis applies information on population, building types, infrastructure, inundation, flow depth for a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period combined with empirical data on tsunami damages and mortality. Results and validation of a GIS tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment model are presented. The GIS model is adapted for optimal use of data available for each study. Finally, the importance of including landslide sources in the tsunami analysis is also discussed.

  4. Feasibility of producing closed-cell metal foams in a zero-gravity environment from sputter deposited inert gas-bearing metals and alloys. Post-flight technical report, SPAR flight 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patten, J. W.; Greenwell, E. N.

    1976-01-01

    Metallography from experiment 24-10 obtained on the second space processing applications rocket (SPAR) flight is discussed. Results are considered along with results from the related experiments on the first SPAR flight. Conclusions are presented.

  5. Efficient preliminary floating offshore wind turbine design and testing methodologies and application to a concrete spar design

    PubMed Central

    Matha, Denis; Sandner, Frank; Molins, Climent; Campos, Alexis; Cheng, Po Wen

    2015-01-01

    The current key challenge in the floating offshore wind turbine industry and research is on designing economic floating systems that can compete with fixed-bottom offshore turbines in terms of levelized cost of energy. The preliminary platform design, as well as early experimental design assessments, are critical elements in the overall design process. In this contribution, a brief review of current floating offshore wind turbine platform pre-design and scaled testing methodologies is provided, with a focus on their ability to accommodate the coupled dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind systems. The exemplary design and testing methodology for a monolithic concrete spar platform as performed within the European KIC AFOSP project is presented. Results from the experimental tests compared to numerical simulations are presented and analysed and show very good agreement for relevant basic dynamic platform properties. Extreme and fatigue loads and cost analysis of the AFOSP system confirm the viability of the presented design process. In summary, the exemplary application of the reduced design and testing methodology for AFOSP confirms that it represents a viable procedure during pre-design of floating offshore wind turbine platforms. PMID:25583870

  6. Efficient preliminary floating offshore wind turbine design and testing methodologies and application to a concrete spar design.

    PubMed

    Matha, Denis; Sandner, Frank; Molins, Climent; Campos, Alexis; Cheng, Po Wen

    2015-02-28

    The current key challenge in the floating offshore wind turbine industry and research is on designing economic floating systems that can compete with fixed-bottom offshore turbines in terms of levelized cost of energy. The preliminary platform design, as well as early experimental design assessments, are critical elements in the overall design process. In this contribution, a brief review of current floating offshore wind turbine platform pre-design and scaled testing methodologies is provided, with a focus on their ability to accommodate the coupled dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind systems. The exemplary design and testing methodology for a monolithic concrete spar platform as performed within the European KIC AFOSP project is presented. Results from the experimental tests compared to numerical simulations are presented and analysed and show very good agreement for relevant basic dynamic platform properties. Extreme and fatigue loads and cost analysis of the AFOSP system confirm the viability of the presented design process. In summary, the exemplary application of the reduced design and testing methodology for AFOSP confirms that it represents a viable procedure during pre-design of floating offshore wind turbine platforms.

  7. Efficient preliminary floating offshore wind turbine design and testing methodologies and application to a concrete spar design.

    PubMed

    Matha, Denis; Sandner, Frank; Molins, Climent; Campos, Alexis; Cheng, Po Wen

    2015-02-28

    The current key challenge in the floating offshore wind turbine industry and research is on designing economic floating systems that can compete with fixed-bottom offshore turbines in terms of levelized cost of energy. The preliminary platform design, as well as early experimental design assessments, are critical elements in the overall design process. In this contribution, a brief review of current floating offshore wind turbine platform pre-design and scaled testing methodologies is provided, with a focus on their ability to accommodate the coupled dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind systems. The exemplary design and testing methodology for a monolithic concrete spar platform as performed within the European KIC AFOSP project is presented. Results from the experimental tests compared to numerical simulations are presented and analysed and show very good agreement for relevant basic dynamic platform properties. Extreme and fatigue loads and cost analysis of the AFOSP system confirm the viability of the presented design process. In summary, the exemplary application of the reduced design and testing methodology for AFOSP confirms that it represents a viable procedure during pre-design of floating offshore wind turbine platforms. PMID:25583870

  8. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T; Rasmuson, D M

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  9. Criteria for representing circular arc and sine wave spar webs by non-curved elements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    The basic problem of how to simply represent a curved web of a spar in a finite element structural model was addressed. The ratio of flat web to curved web axial deformations and longitudinal rotations were calculated using NASTRAN models. Multiplying factors were developed from these calculations for various web thicknesses. These multiplying factors can be applied directly to the area and moment of inertia inputs of the finite element model. This allows the thermal stress relieving configurations of sine wave and circular arc webs to be simply accounted for in finite element structural models.

  10. Optimal Topology of Aircraft Rib and Spar Structures under Aeroelastic Loads

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanford, Bret K.; Dunning, Peter D.

    2014-01-01

    Several topology optimization problems are conducted within the ribs and spars of a wing box. It is desired to locate the best position of lightening holes, truss/cross-bracing, etc. A variety of aeroelastic metrics are isolated for each of these problems: elastic wing compliance under trim loads and taxi loads, stress distribution, and crushing loads. Aileron effectiveness under a constant roll rate is considered, as are dynamic metrics: natural vibration frequency and flutter. This approach helps uncover the relationship between topology and aeroelasticity in subsonic transport wings, and can therefore aid in understanding the complex aircraft design process which must eventually consider all these metrics and load cases simultaneously.

  11. 2. Spar, bramble, and the larger cutters storis (W38) make ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    2. Spar, bramble, and the larger cutters storis (W38) make their way through arctic ice during the first transit of the northwest passage by a U.S. vessel. The lead 180 has a weight suspended over its starboard side. By swinging this weight back and forth across the centerline, the vessel can rock to free herself from ice. - U.S. Coast Guard Buoy Tenders, 180' Class, U.S. Coast Guard Headquarters, 2100 Second Street Southwest, Washington, District of Columbia, DC

  12. Calibration and Validation of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Model using the FAST Dynamic Simulation Tool: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2012-11-01

    In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states.

  13. A comparison of measured and calculated thermal stresses in a hybrid metal matrix composite spar cap element

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.; Taylor, A. H.; Sakata, I. F.

    1985-01-01

    A hybrid spar of titanium with an integrally brazed composite, consisting of an aluminum matrix reinforced with boron-carbide-coated fibers, was heated in an oven and the resulting thermal stresses were measured. Uniform heating of the spar in an oven resulted in thermal stresses arising from the effects of dissimilar materials and anisotropy of the metal matrix composite. Thermal stresses were calculated from a finite element structural model using anisotropic material properties deduced from constituent properties and rules of mixtures. Comparisons of calculated thermal stresses with measured thermal stresses on the spar are presented. It was shown that failure to account for anisotropy in the metal matrix composite elements would result in large errors in correlating measured and calculated thermal stresses. It was concluded that very strong material characterization efforts are required to predict accurate thermal stresses in anisotropic composite structures.

  14. Risk and value analysis of SETI.

    PubMed

    Billingham, J

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  15. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  16. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  17. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  18. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  19. Fire Risk Analysis for Armenian NPP Confinement

    SciTech Connect

    Poghosyan, Shahen; Malkhasyan, Albert; Bznuni, Surik; Amirjanyan, Armen

    2006-07-01

    Major fire occurred at Armenian NPP (ANPP) in October 1982 showed that fire-induced initiating events (IE) can have dominant contribution in overall risk of core damage. Probabilistic Safety Assessment study for fire-induced initiating events for ANPP was initiated in 2002. Analysis was performed for compartments fires in which could result in failure of components which are necessary for reactor cold shutdown. Analysis shows that main risk from fire at ANPP is conditioned by fire in cable tunnels 61-64. Meanwhile fire in confinement compartments don't have significant contribution to overall risk of core damage. The exception is so called 'confinement valves compartment' (room no.A-013/2) fire (more than 7.5% of CDF) in which fire could result in the loss of coolant accident with unavailability of primary makeup system, which directly leads to core damage. Detailed analysis of this problem that is common for typical WWER-440/230 reactors with no hermetic MCPs and recommendations for solution are presented in this paper. (authors)

  20. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  1. Risk Analysis Related to Quality Management Principles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vykydal, David; Halfarová, Petra; Nenadál, Jaroslav; Plura, Jiří; Hekelová, Edita

    2012-12-01

    Efficient and effective implementation of quality management principles asks for a responsible approach from top managers' perspectives. A study of the current state of affairs in Czech organizations discovers a lot of shortcomings in this field that can be changed to vary managerial risks. The article identifies and analyses some of them and gives short guidance for appropriate treatment. Text of the article reflects the authors' experience as well as knowledge obtained from the systematic analysis of industrial companies' environments.

  2. FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, Robin K.

    1976-01-01

    A program for seismic risk analysis is described which combines generality of application, efficiency and accuracy of operation, and the advantage of small storage requirements. The theoretical basis for the program is first reviewed, and the computational algorithms used to apply this theory are described. The information required for running the program is listed. Published attenuation functions describing the variation with earthquake magnitude and distance of expected values for various ground motion parameters are summarized for reference by the program user. Finally, suggestions for use of the program are made, an example problem is described (along with example problem input and output) and the program is listed.

  3. System Analysis and Risk Assessment System.

    2000-11-20

    Version 00 SARA4.16 is a program that allows the user to review the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and to perform limited sensitivity analysis on these results. This tool is intended to be used by a less technical oriented user and does not require the level of understanding of PRA concepts required by a full PRA analysis tool. With this program a user can review the information generated by a PRA analyst andmore » compare the results to those generated by making limited modifications to the data in the PRA. Also included in this program is the ability to graphically display the information stored in the database. This information includes event trees, fault trees, P&IDs and uncertainty distributions. SARA 4.16 is incorporated in the SAPHIRE 5.0 code package.« less

  4. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment.

  5. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  6. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  7. Heat-pipe development for the SPAR space-power system. [100 kW(e)

    SciTech Connect

    Ranken, W.A.

    1981-01-01

    The SPAR space power system design is based on a high temperature fast spectrum nuclear reactor that furnishes heat to a thermoelectric conversion system to generate an electrical power output of 100 kW/sub (e)/. An important feature of this design is the use of alkali metal heat pipes to provide redundant, reliable, and low-loss heat transfer at high temperature. Three sets of heat pipes are used in the system. These include sodium/molybdenum heat pipes to transfer heat from the reactor core to the conversion system, potassium/niobium heat pipes to couple the conversion system to the radiator in a redundant manner, and potassium/titanium heat pipes to distribute rejected heat throughout the radiator surface. The designs of these units are discussed and fabrication methods and testing results are described. 12 figures.

  8. Software Speeds Up Analysis of Breast Cancer Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... fullstory_161117.html Software Speeds Up Analysis of Breast Cancer Risk: Study Doctors were 30 times slower reading ... quickly analyzes mammograms and patient history to determine breast cancer risk could save time and reduce unnecessary biopsies, ...

  9. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  10. Mixed siliciclastic and carbonate sedimentation within Spar Mountain Member of Ste. Genevieve Limestone, Hamilton County, Illinois

    SciTech Connect

    Roberts, M.J.; Pryor, W.A.

    1985-02-01

    The Spar Mountain Member of the Ste. Genevieve Limestone (middle Mississippian) in Hamilton County, Illinois, consists of 40-60 ft (12-18 m) of interbedded limestones, shales, and sandstones. Five cores and 1400 electric logs were used to delineate two shallowing-upward carbonate cycles and 2 major clastic pulses within the Spar Mountain. Eight lithofacies representing 6 depositional environments were identified. They are: (A) echinoderm-brachiopod dolostone to packstone (outer ramp), (B) ooid-peloidal grainstone (intermediate ramp), (C) skeletal grainstone (intermediate ramp), (D) ooid-molluscan-intraclastic wackestone to grainstone (inner ramp), (E) pelletal-skeletal wackestone (inner ramp), (F) quartzarenite (channelized nearshore), (G) quartz-sublithic arenite to wacke (delta platform), and (H) quartz mudstone (prodelta, delta platform). Deposition occurred on a southwest-dipping carbonate ramp, with siliciclastic sediments originating from the northeast. The sequence of facies and their inferred depositional environments record 2 major progradational episodes. Oolitic facies are interpreted to be of tidal-bar belt origin and quartzarenite facies are interpreted to be of delta-distributary channel origin. Their distribution is partially controlled by antecedent and syndepositional topography. Many of these paleotopographic highes are positive features today and yield pinch-out stratigraphic relationships. Paleogeographic reconstructions demonstrate that the primary control on facies distribution was the position of the delta proper along strike. However, depositional topography also influenced sedimentation, particularly in the sand-sized fraction. Using this concept, better prediction of underlying porous buildups (ooid shoals) is possible if thickness of the overlying siliciclastic is known. Within buildups, a complex diagenetic history complicates the distribution of porosity.

  11. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups. PMID:23160540

  12. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  13. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    SciTech Connect

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  14. Environmental risk analysis for indirect coal liquefaction

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Suter, G.W. II; Baes, C.F. III; Bartell, S.M.; Cavendish, M.G.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.; Rosen, A.E.

    1985-01-01

    This report presents an analysis of the risks to fish, water quality (due to noxious algal blooms), crops, forests, and wildlife of two technologies for the indirect liquefaction of coal: Lurgi and Koppers-Totzek gasification of coal for Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. A variety of analytical techniques were used to make maximum use of the available data to consider effects of effluents on different levels of ecological organization. The most significant toxicants to fish were found to be ammonia, cadmium, and acid gases. An analysis of whole-effluent toxicity indicated that the Lurgi effluent is more acutely toxic than the Koppers-Totzek effluent. Six effluent components appear to pose a potential threat of blue-green algal blooms, primarily because of their effects on higher trophic levels. The most important atmospheric emissions with respect to crops, forests, and wildlife were found to be the conventional combustion products SO/sub 2/ and NO/sub 2/. Of the materials deposited on the soil, arsenic, cadmium, and nickel appear of greatest concern for phytotoxicity. 147 references, 5 figures, 41 tables.

  15. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  16. Measuring and modelling pollution for risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Zidek, J V; Le, N D

    1999-01-01

    The great scale and complexity of environmental risk analysis offers major methodological challenges to those engaged in policymaking. In this paper we describe some of those challenges from the perspective gained through our work at the University of British Columbia (UBC). We describe some of our experiences with respect to the difficult problems of formulating environmental standards and developing abatement strategies. A failed but instructive attempt to find support for experiments on a promising method of reducing acid rain will be described. Then we describe an approach to scenario analysis under hypothetical new standards. Even with measurements of ambient environmental conditions in hand the problem of inferring actual human exposures remains. For example, in very hot weather people will tend to stay inside and population levels of exposure to e.g. ozone could be well below those predicted by the ambient measurements. Setting air quality criteria should ideally recognize the discrepancies likely to arise. Computer models that incorporate spatial random pollution fields and predict actual exposures from ambient levels will be described. From there we turn to the statistical issues of measurement and modelling and some of the contributions in these areas by the UBC group and its partners elsewhere. In particular we discuss the problem of measurement error when non-linear regression models are used. We sketch our approach to imputing unmeasured predictors needed in such models, deferring details to references cited below. We describe in general terms how those imputed measurements and their errors can be accommodated within the framework of health impact analysis.

  17. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  18. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    PubMed

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  19. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P.

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  20. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    SciTech Connect

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, high-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.

  1. Harding Iceland spar: a new delta 18O-delta 13C carbonate standard for hydrothermal minerals.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Landis, G.P.

    1983-01-01

    An isotopically homogenous calcite, Iceland spar from the Iceberg claim, near the Harding pegmatite of N New Mexico, has delta 18O +11.78 + or - 0.07per mille (=+22.15per mille for CO2) and delta 13C -4.80 + or - 0.02per mille and has been prepared in quantities suitable for use as a working standard in MS.-R.A.H.

  2. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    High-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.

  3. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    DOE PAGES

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, high-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale inmore » a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.« less

  4. Cumulative Benefit Analysis for Ranking Risk Reduction Actions

    SciTech Connect

    Leverenz, Fred L.; Aysa Jimenez, Julio

    2007-04-25

    The Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) study approach, and other similar methods, are very effective ways to qualitatively identify a comprehensive set of accident scenarios for a facility. If these analyses are modified to incorporate a simple system for evaluating relative risk, such as an order-of-magnitude scoring system, the resultant study can be a very powerful input to developing risk reduction strategies. By adding the concept of Risk Reduction Worth evaluations for all accident Causes, Safeguards, and proposal Action Items, an analyst can then formulate a strategy to select the minimal set of risk reduction actions that maximizes risk reduction. One strategy for doing this involves the iterative evaluation of RRW after postulation of risk reduction actions, until the residual risk reaches a tolerable value, termed Cumulative Risk Benefit Analysis. This concept was developed for the evaluation of a set of pipeline pumping stations, and provided valuable insight into how to reduce risk in a sensible, prioritized fashion.

  5. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260.17 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are...

  6. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260.17 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are...

  7. Virtues and Limitations of Risk Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weatherwax, Robert K.

    1975-01-01

    After summarizing the Rasmussion Report, the author reviews the probabilistic portion of the report from the perspectives of engineering utility and risk assessment uncertainty. The author shows that the report may represent a significant step forward in the assurance of reactor safety and an imperfect measure of actual reactor risk. (BT)

  8. Risk analysis for worker exposure to benzene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallenbeck, William H.; Flowers, Roxanne E.

    1992-05-01

    Cancer risk factors (characterized by route, dose, dose rate per kilogram, fraction of lifetime exposed, species, and sex) were derived for workers exposed to benzene via inhalation or ingestion. Exposure at the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) permissible exposure limit (PEL) and at leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites were evaluated. At the current PEL of 1 ppm, the theoretical lifetime excess risk of cancer from benzene inhalation is ten per 1000. The theoretical lifetime excess risk for worker inhalation exposure at LUST sites ranged from 10 to 40 per 1000. These results indicate that personal protection should be required. The theoretical lifetime excess risk due to soil ingestion is five to seven orders of magnitude less than the inhalation risks.

  9. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Bigelow, Tim S

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  10. Fire behavior and risk analysis in spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Friedman, Robert; Sacksteder, Kurt R.

    1988-01-01

    Practical risk management for present and future spacecraft, including space stations, involves the optimization of residual risks balanced by the spacecraft operational, technological, and economic limitations. Spacecraft fire safety is approached through three strategies, in order of risk: (1) control of fire-causing elements, through exclusion of flammable materials for example; (2) response to incipient fires through detection and alarm; and (3) recovery of normal conditions through extinguishment and cleanup. Present understanding of combustion in low gravity is that, compared to normal gravity behavior, fire hazards may be reduced by the absence of buoyant gas flows yet at the same time increased by ventilation flows and hot particle expulsion. This paper discusses the application of low-gravity combustion knowledge and appropriate aircraft analogies to fire detection, fire fighting, and fire-safety decisions for eventual fire-risk management and optimization in spacecraft.

  11. SPAR VI Technical Report for Experiment 76-22: Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pirich, R. G.; Larson, D. J., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    Samples of eutectic Bi/MnBi were directionally solidified during a low-g interval aboard the SPAR 6 flight and in a l-g environment under identical furnace velocity and thermal conditions. The Bi/MnBi eutectic is characterized by a regular rod eutectic whose morphology may be sensitive to thermo-solutal convection and by its components, MnBi, which is ferromagnetic. Morphological analyses on samples show statistically smaller interrod spacings and rod diameters with respect to samples grown under identical solidification furnace conditions in l-g. An adjustment between the interrod spacing, growth velocity, and total undercooling at the solidification interface is proposed. Morphological analyses on samples grown in l-g indicate little difference between results for different growth orientations with respect to the gravity vector. The magnetic properties are significantly affected, however, by the presence of a nonequilibrium magnetic phase and the nonequilibrium phase transforms to the equilibrium ferromagnetic phase during isothermal heat treatment.

  12. Investigation on the dynamic responses of a truss spar platform for different mooring line groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, Montasir Osman; Yenduri, Anurag; Kurian, V. J.

    2015-06-01

    The dynamic responses of any floating platform are dependent on the mass, stiffness and damping characteristics of the body as well as mooring system. Therefore, it is very essential to study the effect of individual contributions to the system that can finally help to economise their cost. This paper focuses on the effect of mooring stiffness on the responses of a truss spar platform, obtained by different grouping of lines. The study is part of our present researches on mooring systems which include the effect of line pretension, diameter and azimuth angles. The platform is modelled as a rigid body with three degrees-of-freedom and its motions are analyzed in time-domain using the implicit Newmark Beta technique. The mooring lines restoring force-excursion relationship is evaluated using a quasi-static approach. It is observed that the mooring system with lines arranged in less number of groups exhibits better performance in terms of the restoring forces as well as mean position of platform. However, the dynamic motions of platform remain unaffected for different line groups.

  13. Risk analysis of an RTG on the Space Shuttle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frank, Michael V.

    1991-01-01

    As part of the effort to review the Ulysses Final Safety Analysis Report and to understand the risk of plutonium release from the Ulysses spacecraft General Purpose Heat Source-Radioisotope Thermal Generator (GPHS-RTG), the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) and the author performed an integrated, quantitative analysis of the uncertainties of the calculated risk of plutonium release from Ulysses. Using state-of-the-art probabilistic risk assessment technology, the uncertainty analysis accounted for both variability and uncertainty of the key parameters of the risk analysis. The results show tht INSRP had high confidence that risk of fatal cancers from potential plutonium release associated with calculated launch and deployment accident scenarios is low.

  14. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    PubMed

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future. PMID:15876212

  15. Oil shale health and environmental risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Gratt, L.B.

    1983-04-01

    The potential human health and environmental risks of hypothetical one-million-barrels-per-day oil shale industry have been analyzed to serve as an aid in the formulation and management of a program of environmental research. The largest uncertainties for expected fatalities are in the public sector from air pollutants although the occupational sector is estimated to have 60% more expected fatalities than the public sector. Occupational safety and illness have been analyzed for the oil shale fuel cycle from extraction to delivery of products for end use. Pneumoconiosis from the dust environment is the worker disease resulting in the greatest number of fatalities, followed by chronic bronchitis, internal cancer, and skin cancers, respectively. Research recommendations are presented for reducing the uncertainties in the risks analyzed and to fill data gaps to estimate other risks.

  16. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  17. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    SciTech Connect

    Bogen, K T

    2005-11-18

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  18. Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.

    2007-01-01

    Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…

  19. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    SciTech Connect

    Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.; Helms, Jovana; Imbro, Dennis Raymond; Sumner, Matthew C.

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  20. Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moynihan, Gary P.; Fonseca, Daniel J.; Ray, Paul S.

    2010-01-01

    A conceptual design has been announced of an expert-system computer program, and the development of a prototype of the program, intended for use as a project-management tool. The program integrates schedule and risk data for the purpose of determining the schedule applications of safety risks and, somewhat conversely, the effects of changes in schedules on changes on safety. It is noted that the design has been delivered to a NASA client and that it is planned to disclose the design in a conference presentation.

  1. Analysis of driver casualty risk for different work zone types.

    PubMed

    Weng, Jinxian; Meng, Qiang

    2011-09-01

    Using driver casualty data from the Fatality Analysis Report System, this study examines driver casualty risk and investigates the risk contributing factors in the construction, maintenance and utility work zones. The multiple t-tests results show that the driver casualty risk is statistically different depending on the work zone type. Moreover, construction work zones have the largest driver casualty risk, followed by maintenance and utility work zones. Three separate logistic regression models are developed to predict driver casualty risk for the three work zone types because of their unique features. Finally, the effects of risk factors on driver casualty risk for each work zone type are examined and compared. For all three work zone types, five significant risk factors including road alignment, truck involvement, most harmful event, vehicle age and notification time are associated with increased driver casualty risk while traffic control devices and restraint use are associated with reduced driver casualty risk. However, one finding is that three risk factors (light condition, gender and day of week) exhibit opposing effects on the driver casualty risk in different types of work zones. This may largely be due to different work zone features and driver behavior in different types of work zones.

  2. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab.

  3. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billingham, J.

    1986-01-01

    The risks, values, and costs of the SETI project are evaluated and compared with those of the Viking project. Examination of the scientific values, side benefits, and costs of the two projects reveal that both projects provide equal benefits at equal costs. The probability of scientific and technical success is analyzed.

  4. Import risk analysis: the experience of Italy.

    PubMed

    Caporale, V; Giovannini, A; Calistri, P; Conte, A

    1999-12-01

    The authors propose a contribution to the possible revision of Chapters 1.4.1. and 1.4.2. of the International Animal Health Code (Code) of the Office International des Epizooties (OIE). In particular, data are presented to illustrate some of the inadequacies of both the rationale and the results of the method for risk assessment reported in the Code. The method suggested by the Code for risk assessment is based on the calculation of the 'probability of the occurrence of at least one outbreak' of a given disease following the importation of a given quantity of either live animals or animal products (unrestricted risk estimate). This is usually undertaken when dealing with rare events. For a country such as Italy, this method may not be particularly useful as the frequency of disease outbreaks is what should be estimated, so as to provide decision makers with appropriate and relevant information. Practical use of risk information generated by the use of the OIE risk assessment method for swine vesicular disease (SVD) would have encouraged the Chief Veterinary Officer of Italy to prohibit all imports of swine from the Netherlands and Belgium for at least two years in the early 1990s, with the consequential heavy economic losses for both Italy and the exporting countries. On the contrary, the number of actual outbreaks of the disease due to direct imports of swine from Member States of the European Union (EU), which occurred in Italy in 1992, 1993 and 1994 was very low (two to five outbreaks due to direct imports of swine from the Netherlands and one to two from Belgium). An example of a method for assessing the risks associated with high volumes of trade in commodities is also described. This method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation and provides the information required to evaluate the costs of the strategies compared. The method can be used to predict the number of outbreaks which are likely to occur following importation and enables a comparison to be made of

  5. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    PubMed

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  6. Economic Risk Analysis: Using Analytical and Monte Carlo Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Donnell, Brendan R.; Hickner, Michael A.; Barna, Bruce A.

    2002-01-01

    Describes the development and instructional use of a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet template that facilitates analytical and Monte Carlo risk analysis of investment decisions. Discusses a variety of risk assessment methods followed by applications of the analytical and Monte Carlo methods. Uses a case study to illustrate use of the spreadsheet tool…

  7. Student Choices: Using a Competing Risks Model of Survival Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Denson, Katy; Schumacker, Randall E.

    By using a competing risks model, survival analysis methods can be extended to predict which of several mutually exclusive outcomes students will choose based on predictor variables, thereby ascertaining if the profile of risk differs across groups. The paper begins with a brief introduction to logistic regression and some of the basic concepts of…

  8. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  9. American Airlines Propeller STOL Transport Economic Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ransone, B.

    1972-01-01

    A Monte Carlo risk analysis on the economics of STOL transports in air passenger traffic established the probability of making the expected internal rate of financial return, or better, in a hypothetical regular Washington/New York intercity operation.

  10. DOE 2009 Geothermal Risk Analysis: Methodology and Results (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    This presentation summarizes the methodology and results for a probabilistic risk analysis of research, development, and demonstration work-primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program.

  11. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:19048472

  12. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  13. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  14. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  15. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  16. The semantic distinction between "risk" and "danger": a linguistic analysis.

    PubMed

    Boholm, Max

    2012-02-01

    The analysis combines frame semantic and corpus linguistic approaches in analyzing the role of agency and decision making in the semantics of the words "risk" and "danger" (both nominal and verbal uses). In frame semantics, the meanings of "risk" and of related words, such as "danger," are analyzed against the background of a specific cognitive-semantic structure (a frame) comprising frame elements such as Protagonist, Bad Outcome, Decision, Possession, and Source. Empirical data derive from the British National Corpus (100 million words). Results indicate both similarities and differences in use. First, both "risk" and "danger" are commonly used to represent situations having potential negative consequences as the result of agency. Second, "risk" and "danger," especially their verbal uses (to risk, to endanger), differ in agent-victim structure, i.e., "risk" is used to express that a person affected by an action is also the agent of the action, while "endanger" is used to express that the one affected is not the agent. Third, "risk," but not "danger," tends to be used to represent rational and goal-directed action. The results therefore to some extent confirm the analysis of "risk" and "danger" suggested by German sociologist Niklas Luhmann. As a point of discussion, the present findings arguably have implications for risk communication.

  17. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    PubMed

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process.

  18. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation.

    PubMed

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2014-01-15

    An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  19. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability

  20. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    PubMed

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures. PMID:27575259

  1. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    PubMed

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures.

  2. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheung, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.

  3. Risk D&D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2009-05-28

    Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health & safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects.

  4. A predictive Bayesian approach to risk analysis in health care

    PubMed Central

    Aven, Terje; Eidesen, Karianne

    2007-01-01

    Background The Bayesian approach is now widely recognised as a proper framework for analysing risk in health care. However, the traditional text-book Bayesian approach is in many cases difficult to implement, as it is based on abstract concepts and modelling. Methods The essential points of the risk analyses conducted according to the predictive Bayesian approach are identification of observable quantities, prediction and uncertainty assessments of these quantities, using all the relevant information. The risk analysis summarizes the knowledge and lack of knowledge concerning critical operations and other activities, and give in this way a basis for making rational decisions. Results It is shown that Bayesian risk analysis can be significantly simplified and made more accessible compared to the traditional text-book Bayesian approach by focusing on predictions of observable quantities and performing uncertainty assessments of these quantities using subjective probabilities. Conclusion The predictive Bayesian approach provides a framework for ensuring quality of risk analysis. The approach acknowledges that risk cannot be adequately described and evaluated simply by reference to summarising probabilities. Risk is defined by the combination of possible consequences and associated uncertainties. PMID:17714597

  5. Contract Negotiations Supported Through Risk Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, Sérgio A.; Vaz, Marco A.; Souza, Jano M.

    Many clients often view software as a commodity; then, it is critical that IT sellers know how to create value into their offering to differentiate their service from all the others. Clients sometimes refuse to contract software development due to lack of technical understanding or simply because they are afraid of IT contractual commitments. The IT negotiators who recognize the importance of this issue and the reason why it is a problem will be able to work to reach the commercial terms they want. Therefore, this chapter aims to stimulate IT professionals to improve their negotiation skills and presents a computational tool to support managers to get the best out of software negotiations through the identification of contract risks.

  6. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  7. Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

  8. How does scientific risk assessment of GM crops fit within the wider risk analysis?

    PubMed

    Johnson, Katy L; Raybould, Alan F; Hudson, Malcolm D; Poppy, Guy M

    2007-01-01

    The debate concerning genetically modified crops illustrates confusion between the role of scientists and that of wider society in regulatory decision making. We identify two fundamental misunderstandings, which, if rectified, would allow progress with confidence. First, scientific risk assessment needs to test well-defined hypotheses, not simply collect data. Second, risk assessments need to be placed in the wider context of risk analysis to enable the wider 'non-scientific' questions to be considered in regulatory decision making. Such integration and understanding is urgently required because the challenges to regulation will escalate as scientific progress advances.

  9. Geotechnical risk analysis by flat dilatometer (DMT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amoroso, Sara; Monaco, Paola

    2015-04-01

    In the last decades we have assisted at a massive migration from laboratory testing to in situ testing, to the point that, today, in situ testing is often the major part of a geotechnical investigation. The State of the Art indicates that direct-push in situ tests, such as the Cone Penetration Test (CPT) and the Flat Dilatometer Test (DMT), are fast and convenient in situ tests for routine site investigation. In most cases the DMT estimated parameters, in particular the undrained shear strength su and the constrained modulus M, are used with the common design methods of Geotechnical Engineering for evaluating bearing capacity, settlements etc. The paper focuses on the prediction of settlements of shallow foundations, that is probably the No. 1 application of the DMT, especially in sands, where undisturbed samples cannot be retrieved, and on the risk associated with their design. A compilation of documented case histories that compare DMT-predicted vs observed settlements, was collected by Monaco et al. (2006), indicating that, in general, the constrained modulus M can be considered a reasonable "operative modulus" (relevant to foundations in "working conditions") for settlement predictions based on the traditional linear elastic approach. Indeed, the use of a site investigation method, such as DMT, that improve the accuracy of design parameters, reduces risk, and the design can then center on the site's true soil variability without parasitic test variability. In this respect, Failmezger et al. (1999, 2015) suggested to introduce Beta probability distribution, that provides a realistic and useful description of variability for geotechnical design problems. The paper estimates Beta probability distribution in research sites where DMT tests and observed settlements are available. References Failmezger, R.A., Rom, D., Ziegler, S.R. (1999). "SPT? A better approach of characterizing residual soils using other in-situ tests", Behavioral Characterics of Residual Soils, B

  10. Common-Cause Failure Analysis in Event Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Dana L. Kelly; Dale M. Rasmuson

    2008-09-01

    This paper describes the approach taken by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to the treatment of common-cause failure in probabilistic risk assessment of operational events. The approach is based upon the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, and examples are illustrated using the alpha-factor parameterization, the approach adopted by the NRC in their Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models. The cases of a failed component (with and without shared common-cause failure potential) and a component being unavailable due to preventive maintenance or testing are addressed. The treatment of two related failure modes (e.g., failure to start and failure to run) is a new feature of this paper. These methods are being applied by the NRC in assessing the risk significance of operational events for the Significance Determination Process (SDP) and the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program.

  11. Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

    2015-04-01

    A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies.

  12. Using fire tests for quantitative risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ling, W.C.T.; Williamson, R.B.

    1980-03-01

    Fires can be considered a causal chain-of-events in which the growth and spread of fire may cause damage and injury if it is rapid enough to overcome the barriers placed in its way. Fire tests for fire resistance of the barriers can be used in a quantitative risk assessment. The fire growth and spread is modelled in a State Transition Model (STM). The fire barriers are presented as part of the Fire Protection Model (FPM) which is based on a portion of the NFPA Decision Tree. An Emergency Equivalent Network is introduced to couple the Fire Growth Model (FGM) and the FPM so that the spread of fire beyond the room-of-origin can be computed. An example is presented in which a specific building floor plan is analyzed to obtain the shortest expected time for fire to spread between two points. To obtain the probability and time for each link in the network, data from the results of fire tests were used. These results were found to be lacking and new standards giving better data are advocated.

  13. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    PubMed

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. PMID:21679738

  14. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    PubMed

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume.

  15. Credibility analysis of risk classes by generalized linear model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral

    2016-06-01

    In this paper generalized linear model (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of risk classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible risk classes are interpreted.

  16. Ecological food web analysis for chemical risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Preziosi, Damian V; Pastorok, Robert A

    2008-12-01

    Food web analysis can be a critical component of ecological risk assessment, yet it has received relatively little attention among risk assessors. Food web data are currently used in modeling bioaccumulation of toxic chemicals and, to a limited extent, in the determination of the ecological significance of risks. Achieving more realism in ecological risk assessments requires new analysis tools and models that incorporate accurate information on key receptors in a food web paradigm. Application of food web analysis in risk assessments demands consideration of: 1) different kinds of food webs; 2) definition of trophic guilds; 3) variation in food webs with habitat, space, and time; and 4) issues for basic sampling design and collection of dietary data. The different kinds of food webs include connectance webs, materials flow webs, and functional (or interaction) webs. These three kinds of webs play different roles throughout various phases of an ecological risk assessment, but risk assessors have failed to distinguish among web types. When modeling food webs, choices must be made regarding the level of complexity for the web, assignment of species to trophic guilds, selection of representative species for guilds, use of average diets, the characterization of variation among individuals or guild members within a web, and the spatial and temporal scales/dynamics of webs. Integrating exposure and effects data in ecological models for risk assessment of toxic chemicals relies on coupling food web analysis with bioaccumulation models (e.g., Gobas-type models for fish and their food webs), wildlife exposure models, dose-response models, and population dynamics models. PMID:18703218

  17. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  18. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  19. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    PubMed

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases. PMID:24402720

  20. Comparative analysis of health risk assessments for municipal waste combustors

    SciTech Connect

    Levin, A.; Fratt, D.B.; Leonard, A.; Bruins, R.J.F.; Fradkin, L.

    1991-01-01

    Quantitative health risk assessments have been performed for a number of proposed municipal waste combustor (MWC) facilities over the past several years. The article presents the results of a comparative analysis of a total of 21 risk assessments, focusing on seven of the most comprehensive methodologies. The analysis concentrates on stack emissions of noncriteria pollutants and is comparative rather than critical in nature. Overall, the risk assessment methodologies used were similar whereas the assumptions and input values used varied from study to study. Some of the variability results directly from differences in site-specific characteristics, but much of it is due to absence of data, lack of field validation, lack of specific guidelines from regulatory agencies, and reliance on professional judgment. The results indicate that carcinogenic risks are more significant than chronic non-carcinogenic risks. In most instances polychlorodibenzodioxins, polychlorodibenzofurans, and cadmium contribute more significantly to the total carcinogenic risk from MWC stack emissions than other contaminants. In addition, the contribution to total risk of all indirect routes of exposure (ingestion and dermal contact) exceeds that of the direct inhalation route for most studies reviewed.

  1. Comparative analysis of health risk assessments for municipal waste combustors.

    PubMed

    Levin, A; Fratt, D B; Leonard, A; Bruins, R J; Fradkin, L

    1991-01-01

    Quantitative health risk assessments have been performed for a number of proposed municipal waste combustor (MWC) facilities over the past several years. This article presents the results of a comparative analysis of a total of 21 risk assessments, focusing on seven of the most comprehensive methodologies. The analysis concentrates on stack emissions of noncriteria pollutants and is comparative rather than critical in nature. Overall, the risk assessment methodologies used were similar whereas the assumptions and input values used varied from study to study. Some of this variability results directly from differences in site-specific characteristics, but much of it is due to absence of data, lack of field validation, lack of specific guidelines from regulatory agencies, and reliance on professional judgment. The results indicate that carcinogenic risks are more significant than chronic non-carcinogenic risks. In most instances polychlorodibenzodioxins, polychlorodibenzofurans, and cadmium contribute more significantly to the total carcinogenic risk from MWC stack emissions than other contaminants. In addition, the contribution to total risk of all indirect routes of exposure (ingestion and dermal contact) exceeds that of the direct inhalation route for most studies reviewed.

  2. Comparative analysis of health risk assessments for municipal waste combustors

    SciTech Connect

    Levin, A.; Fratt, D.B.; Leonard, A.; Bruins, R.J.; Fradkin, L. )

    1991-01-01

    Quantitative health risk assessments have been performed for a number of proposed municipal waste combustor (MWC) facilities over the past several years. This article presents the results of a comparative analysis of a total of 21 risk assessments, focusing on seven of the most comprehensive methodologies. The analysis concentrates on stack emissions of noncriteria pollutants and is comparative rather than critical in nature. Overall, the risk assessment methodologies used were similar whereas the assumptions and input values used varied from study to study. Some of this variability results directly from differences in site-specific characteristics, but much of it is due to absence of data, lack of field validation, lack of specific guidelines from regulatory agencies, and reliance on professional judgment. The results indicate that carcinogenic risks are more significant than chronic non-carcinogenic risks. In most instances polychlorodibenzodioxins, polychlorodibenzofurans, and cadmium contribute more significantly to the total carcinogenic risk from MWC stack emissions than other contaminants. In addition, the contribution to total risk of all indirect routes of exposure (ingestion and dermal contact) exceeds that of the direct inhalation route for most studies reviewed. 42 refs.

  3. User's guide: SPAR processor MN analysis of inelastic three-dimensional solids, part 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whetstone, W. D.; Jones, C. E.

    1979-01-01

    A user's guide to the processor MN is presented. The processor MN is used to analyze systems in which some or all of the three dimensional elements have nonlinear stress-strain relations. Representations of nonlinear material behavior implemented into the system are provided including Von Mises yield criterion, the Prandtl-Reuss flow rule, and the mechanical sublayer method. The primary data sets used to represent the state of the system are presented.

  4. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Mozambique.

    PubMed

    1996-12-01

    Mozambique's National STD/AIDS Control Program (NACP) estimates that, at present, about 8% of the population is infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The epidemic is expected to peak in 1997. By 2001, Mozambique is projected to have 1,650,000 HIV-positive adults 15-49 years of age, of whom 500,000 will have developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and 500,000 AIDS orphans. Incidence rates are highest in the country's central region, the transport corridors, and urban centers. The rapid spread of HIV has been facilitated by extreme poverty, the social upheaval and erosion of traditional norms created by years of political conflict and civil war, destruction of the primary health care infrastructure, growth of the commercial sex work trade, and labor migration to and from neighboring countries with high HIV prevalence. Moreover, about 10% of the adult population suffers from sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including genital ulcers. NACP, created in 1988, is attempting to curb the further spread of HIV through education aimed at changing high-risk behaviors and condom distribution to prevent STD transmission. Theater performances and radio/television programs are used to reach the large illiterate population. The integration of sex education and STD/AIDS information in the curricula of primary and secondary schools and universities has been approved by the Ministry of Education. Several private companies have been persuaded to distribute condoms to their employees. Finally, the confidentiality of HIV patients has been guaranteed. In 1993, the total AIDS budget was US $1.67 million, 50% of which was provided by the European Union. The European Commission seeks to develop a national strategy for managing STDs within the primary health care system.

  5. Quantitative Risk Analysis of Obstacle Limitation Standards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandaradura, Amila Silva

    Obstacle limitation surfaces (OLS) are the main safeguard against objects that can pose a hazard to aircraft operations at and around the airports. The standard dimensions of the most of these surfaces were estimated using the pilot's experience at the time when they were included in to the standard documents. As a result, some of these standards may have been overestimated while others may not provide an adequate level of safety. With airports moving to the Safety Management System (SMS) approach to design and operations safety, proper evaluation of the level of safety provided by OLS at specific sites becomes great importance to airport operators. There is no published evidence, however, for the estimation of the safety level provided by the existing OLS standards. Moreover, the rationale used by the ICAO to establish existing OLS standards is not readily available in the standard documents. Therefore this study attempts to collect actual flight path data using information provided by air traffic control radars and construct a methodology to assess the probability of aircraft deviating from their intended/protected path. The extension of the developed methodology can be used to estimate the OLS dimensions that provide an acceptable safety level for the aircraft operations. This will be helpful to estimate safe and efficient standard dimensions of the OLS and assess the risk level of objects to the aircraft operations around airports. In order to assess the existing standards and show the applications of the methodology, three case studies were conducted using aircraft data collected from Ottawa (CYOW), Calgary (CYYC) and Edmonton (CYEG) International Airports.

  6. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Mozambique.

    PubMed

    1996-12-01

    Mozambique's National STD/AIDS Control Program (NACP) estimates that, at present, about 8% of the population is infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The epidemic is expected to peak in 1997. By 2001, Mozambique is projected to have 1,650,000 HIV-positive adults 15-49 years of age, of whom 500,000 will have developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and 500,000 AIDS orphans. Incidence rates are highest in the country's central region, the transport corridors, and urban centers. The rapid spread of HIV has been facilitated by extreme poverty, the social upheaval and erosion of traditional norms created by years of political conflict and civil war, destruction of the primary health care infrastructure, growth of the commercial sex work trade, and labor migration to and from neighboring countries with high HIV prevalence. Moreover, about 10% of the adult population suffers from sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including genital ulcers. NACP, created in 1988, is attempting to curb the further spread of HIV through education aimed at changing high-risk behaviors and condom distribution to prevent STD transmission. Theater performances and radio/television programs are used to reach the large illiterate population. The integration of sex education and STD/AIDS information in the curricula of primary and secondary schools and universities has been approved by the Ministry of Education. Several private companies have been persuaded to distribute condoms to their employees. Finally, the confidentiality of HIV patients has been guaranteed. In 1993, the total AIDS budget was US $1.67 million, 50% of which was provided by the European Union. The European Commission seeks to develop a national strategy for managing STDs within the primary health care system. PMID:12320532

  7. Hypertension and Risk of Cataract: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Xiaoning; Lyu, Danni; Dong, Xinran; He, Jiliang; Yao, Ke

    2014-01-01

    Background Cataract is the major cause of blindness across the world. Many epidemiologic studies indicated that hypertension might play an important role in the development of cataract, while others not. We therefore conducted this meta-analysis to determine the relationship between risk of cataract and hypertension. Methods Retrieved studies on the association of hypertension with cataract risk were collected from PubMed, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library during June 2014 and were included into the final analysis according to the definite inclusion criteria. Odds ratio (OR) or risk ratio (RR) were pooled with 95% confidence interval (CI) to evaluate the relationship between hypertension and cataract risk. Subgroup analyses were carried out on the basis of cataract type, race and whether studies were adjusted for main components of metabolic syndrome (MS). Results The final meta-analysis included 25 studies (9 cohort, 5 case-control and 11 cross-sectional) from 23 articles. The pooled results showed that cataract risk in populations with hypertension significantly increased among cohort studies (RR 1.08; 95% CI: 1.05–1.12) and case-control or cross-sectional studies (OR 1.28; 95% CI: 1.12–1.45). This association was proved to be true among both Mongolians and Caucasians, and the significance was not altered by the adjustment of main components of MS. Subgroup analysis on cataract types indicated that an increased incidence of posterior subcapsular cataract (PSC) resulted among cohort studies (RR 1.22; 95% CI: 1.03–1.46) and cross-sectional/case-control studies (OR 1.23; 95% CI: 1.09–1.39). No association of hypertension with risk of nuclear cataract was found. Conclusions The present meta-analysis suggests that hypertension increases the risk of cataract, especially PSC. Further efforts should be made to explore the potential biological mechanisms. PMID:25474403

  8. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Risk Analysis Study.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2005-11-01

    The Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS), operated on behalf of the ratepayers of the PNW by BPA and other Federal agencies, faces many uncertainties during the FY 2007-2009 rate period. Among these uncertainties, the largest revolve around hydro conditions, market prices and river operations for fish recovery. In order to provide a high probability of making its U.S. Treasury payments, BPA performs a Risk Analysis as part of its rate-making process. In this Risk Analysis, BPA identifies key risks, models their relationships, and then analyzes their impacts on net revenues (total revenues less expenses). BPA subsequently evaluates in the ToolKit Model the Treasury Payment Probability (TPP) resulting from the rates, risks, and risk mitigation measures described here and in the Wholesale Power Rate Development Study (WPRDS). If the TPP falls short of BPA's standard, additional risk mitigation revenues, such as PNRR and CRAC revenues are incorporated in the modeling in ToolKit until the TPP standard is met. Increased wholesale market price volatility and six years of drought have significantly changed the profile of risk and uncertainty facing BPA and its stakeholders. These present new challenges for BPA in its effort to keep its power rates as low as possible while fully meeting its obligations to the U.S. Treasury. As a result, the risk BPA faces in not receiving the level of secondary revenues that have been credited to power rates before receiving those funds is greater. In addition to market price volatility, BPA also faces uncertainty around the financial impacts of operations for fish programs in FY 2006 and in the FY 2007-2009 rate period. A new Biological Opinion or possible court-ordered change to river operations in FY 2006 through FY 2009 may reduce BPA's net revenues included Initial Proposal. Finally, the FY 2007-2009 risk analysis includes new operational risks as well as a more comprehensive analysis of non-operating risks. Both the operational

  9. [Competitive karate and the risk of HIV infection--review, risk analysis and risk minimizing strategies].

    PubMed

    Müller-Rath, R; Mumme, T; Miltner, O; Skobel, E

    2004-03-01

    Bleeding facial injuries are not uncommon in competitive karate. Nevertheless, the risk of an infection with HIV is extremely low. Guidelines about the prevention of HIV infections are presented. Especially in contact sports and martial arts the athletes, judges and staff have to recognize and employ these recommendations. Bleeding wounds of the hands due to contact with the opponents teeth can be minimized by fist padding.

  10. Bayes Method Plant Aging Risk Analysis

    1992-03-13

    DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternatives hypothesized aging models (i.e. possible trends) along with prior probabilities indicating the subjective probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop amore » posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5th and 95th percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities.« less

  11. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  12. DMAICR in an ergonomic risks analysis.

    PubMed

    Santos, E F; Lima, C R C

    2012-01-01

    The DMAICR problem-solving methodology is used throughout this paper to show you how to implement ergonomics recommendations. The DMAICR method consists of the following five six steps by which you can solve ergonomic design problems: The steps of the proposed method, adapting DMAICR, are the following: In the steep D, there is the definition of the project or the situation to be assessed and its guiding objectives, known as demand. In the step M, it relates to the work, tasks and organizational protocols and also includes the need of measuring. In the step A, all concepts are about the analysis itself. The step I is the moment of improving or incrementing. In the step C, control, prevention from prospective troublesome situation and implementation of management are the activities controlling the situation. R is Report. Some relevant technical and conceptual aspects for the comparison of these methodologies are illustrated in this paper. The steps of DMAICR were taken by a multifunctional team (multi-professional and multi-disciplinary) termed as focus group, composed by selected members of the company and supported by experts in ergonomics.

  13. Key Attributes of the SAPHIRE Risk and Reliability Analysis Software for Risk-Informed Probabilistic Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis Smith; James Knudsen; Kellie Kvarfordt; Ted Wood

    2008-08-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has lead to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30 to 40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena.

  14. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  15. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  16. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    SciTech Connect

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N. Andritsos, Nikolaos Psomas, Antonios Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  17. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    SciTech Connect

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  18. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  19. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency.

  20. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-12-31

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation`s environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency.

  1. Towards secure virtual directories : a risk analysis framework.

    SciTech Connect

    Claycomb, William R.

    2010-07-01

    Directory services are used by almost every enterprise computing environment to provide data concerning users, computers, contacts, and other objects. Virtual directories are components that provide directory services in a highly customized manner. Unfortunately, though the use of virtual directory services are widespread, an analysis of risks posed by their unique position and architecture has not been completed. We present a detailed analysis of six attacks to virtual directory services, including steps for detection and prevention. We also describe various categories of attack risks, and discuss what is necessary to launch an attack on virtual directories. Finally, we present a framework to use in analyzing risks to individual enterprise computing virtual directory instances. We show how to apply this framework to an example implementation, and discuss the benefits of doing so.

  2. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  3. Characterization and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1981-01-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed, using the event and fault-tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which are, at present, unquantifiable using either classical or Bayesian statistics. it is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events, and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance.

  4. RASOR Project: Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation of Risk, from Hazard to Risk using EO data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Over recent decades, there has been a dramatic rise in disasters, and their impact on human populations. Escalation in complexities in our societies is making risks increasingly difficult to understand and changing the ways in which hazards interact with each other. The Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk (RASOR) project developed a multi-hazard risk analysis platform to support the full cycle of disaster management. RASOR provides up-to-date hazard information across floods and geohazards, up-to-date exposure data from known sources and newly-generated EO-based data, and characterised quantitatively their vulnerabilities. RASOR also adapts the newly-developed 12m resolution global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to risk management applications, using it as a base layer to develop specific disaster scenarios. RASOR overlays archived and near real-time very high resolution optical and radar satellite data, combined with in situ data for both global and local applications. A scenario-driven query system allows users to project situations into the future and model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event. Applications with regards to different case study sites are presented in order to illustrate the platform potential.

  5. Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

    PubMed

    Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

    2005-08-31

    Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference. PMID:15908107

  6. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    INTRODUCTION: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR CUMULATIVE RISK

    Hugh A. Barton1 and Carey N. Pope2
    1US EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
    2Department of...

  7. Safety risk analysis of an innovative environmental technology.

    PubMed

    Parnell, G S; Frimpon, M; Barnes, J; Kloeber, J M; Deckro, R E; Jackson, J A

    2001-02-01

    The authors describe a decision and risk analysis performed for the cleanup of a large Department of Energy mixed-waste subsurface disposal area governed by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). In a previous study, the authors worked with the site decision makers, state regulators, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regional regulators to develop a CERCLA-based multiobjective decision analysis value model and used the model to perform a screening analysis of 28 remedial alternatives. The analysis results identified an innovative technology, in situ vitrification, with high effectiveness versus cost. Since this technology had not been used on this scale before, the major uncertainties were contaminant migration and pressure buildup. Pressure buildup was a safety concern due to the potential risks to worker safety. With the help of environmental technology experts remedial alternative changes were identified to mitigate the concerns about contaminant migration and pressure buildup. The analysis results showed that the probability of an event with a risk to worker safety had been significantly reduced. Based on these results, site decision makers have refocused their test program to examine in situ vitrification and have continued the use of the CERCLA-based decision analysis methodology to analyze remedial alternatives. PMID:11332543

  8. Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

    PubMed

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

    2009-04-01

    Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

  9. Human Error Analysis in a Permit to Work System: A Case Study in a Chemical Plant

    PubMed Central

    Jahangiri, Mehdi; Hoboubi, Naser; Rostamabadi, Akbar; Keshavarzi, Sareh; Hosseini, Ali Akbar

    2015-01-01

    Background A permit to work (PTW) is a formal written system to control certain types of work which are identified as potentially hazardous. However, human error in PTW processes can lead to an accident. Methods This cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted to estimate the probability of human errors in PTW processes in a chemical plant in Iran. In the first stage, through interviewing the personnel and studying the procedure in the plant, the PTW process was analyzed using the hierarchical task analysis technique. In doing so, PTW was considered as a goal and detailed tasks to achieve the goal were analyzed. In the next step, the standardized plant analysis risk-human (SPAR-H) reliability analysis method was applied for estimation of human error probability. Results The mean probability of human error in the PTW system was estimated to be 0.11. The highest probability of human error in the PTW process was related to flammable gas testing (50.7%). Conclusion The SPAR-H method applied in this study could analyze and quantify the potential human errors and extract the required measures for reducing the error probabilities in PTW system. Some suggestions to reduce the likelihood of errors, especially in the field of modifying the performance shaping factors and dependencies among tasks are provided. PMID:27014485

  10. Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks--heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm.

    PubMed

    Prpich, G; Dagonneau, J; Rocks, S A; Lickorish, F; Pollard, S J T

    2013-10-01

    We summarise our recent efforts on the policy-level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below.

  11. Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

  12. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  13. Analysis of automated highway system risks and uncertainties. Volume 5

    SciTech Connect

    Sicherman, A.

    1994-10-01

    This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs and benefits for a range of AHS deployment scenarios. The analysis identified a suite of key factors affecting vehicle and roadway costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgments of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices.

  14. Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

  15. Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

    2016-04-01

    Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

  16. Risk Interfaces to Support Integrated Systems Analysis and Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objectives for systems analysis capability: Develop integrated understanding of how a complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. Why? Support development of integrated solutions that prevent unwanted outcomes (Implementable approaches to minimize mission resources(mass, power, crew time, etc.)); Support development of tools for autonomy (need for exploration) (Assess and maintain resilience -individuals, teams, integrated system). Output of this exercise: -Representation of interfaces based on Human System Risk Board (HSRB) Risk Summary information and simple status based on Human Research Roadmap; Consolidated HSRB information applied to support communication; Point-of-Departure for HRP Element planning; Ability to track and communicate status of collaborations. 4

  17. Performance of a steel spar wind turbine blade on the Mod-0 100 kW experimental wind turbine

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keith, T. G., Jr.; Sullivan, T. L.; Viterna, L. A.

    1980-01-01

    The performance and loading of a large wind rotor, 38.4 m in diameter and composed of two low-cost steel spar blades were examined. Two blades were fabricated at Lewis Research Center and successfully operated on the Mod-0 wind turbine at Plum Brook. The blades were operated on a tower on which the natural bending frequency were altered by placing the tower on a leaf-spring apparatus. It was found that neither blade performance nor loading were affected significantly by this tower softening technique. Rotor performance exceeded prediction while blade loads were found to be in reasonable agreement with those predicted. Seventy-five hours of operation over a five month period resulted in no deterioration in the blade.

  18. Hybrid Safety Analysis Using Functional and Risk Decompositions

    SciTech Connect

    COOPER,J. ARLIN; JOHNSON,ALICE J.; WERNER,PAUL W.

    2000-07-15

    Safety analysis of complex systems depends on decomposing the systems into manageable subsystems, from which analysis can be rolled back up to the system level. The authors have found that there is no single best way to decompose; in fact hybrid combinations of decompositions are generally necessary to achieve optimum results. They are currently using two backbone coordinated decompositions--functional and risk, supplemented by other types, such as organizational. An objective is to derive metrics that can be used to efficiently and accurately aggregate information through analysis, to contribute toward assessing system safety, and to contribute information necessary for defensible decisions.

  19. Egg consumption and breast cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Si, Ruohuang; Qu, Kunpeng; Jiang, Zebin; Yang, Xiaojun; Gao, Peng

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between egg consumption and breast cancer risk has been inconsistent, so it is necessary to conduct a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship. PubMed, EMBASE and ISI Web of Knowledge were searched to find cohort studies or case control studies that evaluated the relationship between egg consumption and breast cancer risk. A comprehensive meta-analysis software was used to conduct the meta-analysis. 13 studies were included. The meta-analysis results showed that egg consumption was associated with increased breast cancer risk (RR 1.04, 95 % CI 1.01-1.08). Subgroup analyses showed egg consumption was also associated with increased breast cancer risk based on cohort studies (RR 1.04, 95 % CI 1.00-1.08), among European population (RR 1.05, 95 % CI 1.01-1.09), Asian population (RR 1.09, 95 % CI 1.00-1.18), postmenopausal population (RR 1.06, 95 % CI 1.02-1.10), and those who consumed ≥2, ≤5/week (RR 1.10, 95 % CI 1.02-1.17), but not in case-control studies (RR 1.06, 95 % CI 0.97-1.15), among American population (RR 1.04, 95 % CI 0.94-1.16), premenopausal population (RR 1.04, 95 % CI 0.98-1.11) and those who consumed ≥1, <2/week (RR 1.04, 95 % CI 0.97-1.11) or >5 eggs/week (RR 0.97, 95 % CI 0.88-1.06). Egg consumption was associated with increased breast cancer risk among the European, Asian and postmenopausal population and those who consumed ≥2, ≤5/week. PMID:24504557

  20. The 5 kWe scale-down of the SPAR/SP-100 heat pipe reactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adrian, John M.; Benke, Steven M.

    The SPAR/SP-100 heat pipe reactor was designed to operate at 100 kWe. Work done on a 5 kWe scaled-down version of the SPAR/SP-100 is presented. This scale-down was done in order to compare the performance of a small heat pipe reactor to Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs). The work on this design is broken into the following categories: reactor core modeling, control drum modeling, heat rejection modeling, and shadow shield modeling. The reactor core modeling will be completed using the already available computer programs FEMP2D and ORIGEN. The REMP2D will be used to complete the neutronics survey through the core and control drums and it will also be used to ensure the core will be subcritical in case of a water abort. Another safety aspect that will be investigated using FEMP2D is ensuring that a fuel element remains subcritical in the event of reactor break-up during reentry. The ORIGEN wil be used to check the burn-up characteristics of the core design. The reactor control drums will be modeled using a FORTRAN program in order to provide atom density information for use in FEMP2D. The heat rejection system will be modeled in order to determine weight requirements of the radiator. The shadow shield model will also provide information on the weight requirements of the shield with respect to the reactor size. The data obtained from the different categories wil be used to compare the performance of a small heat pipe reactor to the RTG. Comparisons will be made in the following areas: specific power, operating characteristics, and safety.

  1. Methodology for risk analysis based on atmospheric dispersion modelling from nuclear risk sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.; Rigina, O.

    2003-04-01

    The main purpose of this multidisciplinary study is to develop a methodology for complex nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to test it on example of estimation of nuclear risk to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident at a nuclear risk site (NRS). The main focus of the paper is the methodology for the evaluation of the atmospheric transport and deposition of radioactive pollutants from NRSs. The method developed for this evaluation is derived from a probabilistic point of view. The main question we are trying to answer is: What is the probability for radionuclide atmospheric transport and impact to different neighbouring regions and countries in case of an accident at an NPP? To answer this question we applied a number of different tools: (i) Trajectory Modelling - to calculate multiyear forward trajectories originating over the locations of selected risk sites; (ii) Dispersion Modelling - for long-term simulation and case studies of radionuclide transport from hypothetical accidental releases at NRSs; (iii) Cluster Analysis - to identify atmospheric transport pathways from NRSs; (iv) Probability Fields Analysis - to construct annual, monthly, and seasonal NRS impact indicators to identify the most impacted geographical regions; (v) Specific Case Studies - to estimate consequences for the environment and the populations after a hypothetical accident; (vi) Vulnerability Evaluation to Radioactive Deposition - to describe its persistence in the ecosystems with a focus to the transfer of certain radionuclides into the food chains of key importance for the intake and exposure for a whole population and for certain population groups; (vii) Risk Evaluation and Mapping - to analyse socio-economical consequences for different geographical areas and various population groups taking into account social-geophysical factors and probabilities, and using demographic databases based on GIS analysis.

  2. Groundwater-risk analysis of New York utilizing GIS technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hillenbrand, Charles John, III

    Using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, data layers can be processed and analyzed to produce a regional groundwater-risk grid of New York State (NYS). GIS can be used to assess the potential to introduce contaminants at the ground surface, and assess the potential for the contaminants to migrate through the vadose zone and be introduced to an aquifer at the water-table. The potential to introduce contaminants to the ground surface was assessed utilizing existing database information in combination with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Resolution Land Classification (MRLC) land use grid. The databases allowed an analysis of contaminant association with Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes, risk evaluation of the contaminants using groundwater intake values protective of human health, the development of SIC code-risk values, the construction of a SIC code-risked facility point coverage, and the construction of a land use-risk grid; this grid assesses the potential to introduce contaminants to the ground surface. Aquifer susceptibility was determined by analyzing vadose zone residence time assuming saturated conditions. Vadose zone residence time is a measure of the vadose zone's ability to attenuate and retard the migration of contaminants. Existing data layers were processed to produce a depth to water-table (vadose zone thickness) grid. Existing GIS data layers of soil, surficial geology and bedrock geology, along with review of literature and pump/slug test data, enabled the creation of thickness, porosity and vertical hydraulic conductivity grids for the three considered components of the vadose zone. The average linear velocity was then calculated for each vadose zone component by dividing their hydraulic conductivity grid by their respective porosity grid. The thickness grid of each vadose zone component was then divided by their respective average linear velocity grid to produce vadose zone residence time grids. The sum

  3. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Börner, Susanne; Albino, Juan Carlos Torrico; Caraveo, Luz María Nieto; Tejeda, Ana Cristina Cubillas

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs) aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed. PMID:26017963

  4. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Börner, Susanne; Albino, Juan Carlos Torrico; Caraveo, Luz María Nieto; Tejeda, Ana Cristina Cubillas

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs) aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed.

  5. Modelling soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) in the immediate period after a grassland fire in Lithuania.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Cerda, Artemi; Misiūnė, Ieva

    2015-04-01

    The soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) is an index that measures the amount of sodium and potassium adsorbed onto clay and organic matter surfaces, in relation to calcium and magnesium. Assess the potential of soil dispersion or flocculation, a process which has implication in soil hydraulic properties and erosion (Sarah, 2004). Depending on severity and the type of ash produced, fire can changes in the immediate period the soil nutrient status (Bodi et al. 2014). Ash releases onto soil surface a large amount of cations, due the high pH. Previous works showed that SPAR from ash slurries is higher than solutions produced from litter (Pereira et al., 2014a). Normally the spatial distribution of topsoil nutrients in the immediate period after the fire is very heterogeneous, due to the different impacts of fire. Thus it is important to identify the most accurate interpolation method in order to identify with better precision the impacts of fire on soil properties. The objective of this work is to test several interpolation methods. The study area is located in near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Four days after the fire it was designed a plot in a burned area with near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Twenty five samples were collected from the topsoil. The SPAR index was calculated according to the formula: (Na++K+)/(Ca2++Mg2+)1/2 (Sarah, 2004). Data followed the normal distribution, thus no transformation was required previous to data modelling. Several well know interpolation models were tested, as Inverse Distance to a Weight (IDW) with the power of 1, 2, 3 and 4, Radial Basis Functions (RBF), Inverse Multiquadratic (IMT), Multilog (MTG), Multiquadratic (MTQ), Natural Cubic Spline (NCS) and Thin Plate Spline (TPS) and Local Polynomial (LP) with the power of 1 and 2 and Ordinary Kriging. The best interpolator was the one which had the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (Pereira et al., 2014b). The

  6. Risk factors for rape re-victimisation: a retrospective analysis.

    PubMed

    Lurie, S; Boaz, M; Golan, A

    2013-11-01

    Sexual re-victimisation refers to a pattern in which the sexual assault victim has an increased risk of subsequent victimisation relative to an individual who was never victimised. The purpose of our study was to identify risks factors for a second rape, the severest form of sexual re-victimisation. All rape victims treated at the First Regional Israeli Center for Sexual Assault Victims between October 2000 and July 2010 were included in this retrospective analysis. We compared characteristics of 53 rape victims who were victimised twice to those of 1,939 rape victims who were victimised once. We identified several risk factors for a second rape, which can be used in prevention programmes. These are: psychiatric background, history of social services involvement, adulthood, non-virginity and minority ethnicity.

  7. Risk assessment and its application to flight safety analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Keese, D.L.; Barton, W.R.

    1989-12-01

    Potentially hazardous test activities have historically been a part of Sandia National Labs mission to design, develop, and test new weapons systems. These test activities include high speed air drops for parachute development, sled tests for component and system level studies, multiple stage rocket experiments, and artillery firings of various projectiles. Due to the nature of Sandia's test programs, the risk associated with these activities can never be totally eliminated. However, a consistent set of policies should be available to provide guidance into the level of risk that is acceptable in these areas. This report presents a general set of guidelines for addressing safety issues related to rocket flight operations at Sandia National Laboratories. Even though the majority of this report deals primarily with rocket flight safety, these same principles could be applied to other hazardous test activities. The basic concepts of risk analysis have a wide range of applications into many of Sandia's current operations. 14 refs., 1 tab.

  8. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-09-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional 'Standard I', which has a paternalistic orientation, and 'Standard II', established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being.

  9. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-09-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional 'Standard I', which has a paternalistic orientation, and 'Standard II', established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being. PMID:27475751

  10. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards

    PubMed Central

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional ‘Standard I’, which has a paternalistic orientation, and ‘Standard II’, established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being. PMID:27475751

  11. [Risk analysis in radiation therapy: state of the art].

    PubMed

    Mazeron, R; Aguini, N; Deutsch, É

    2013-01-01

    Five radiotherapy accidents, from which two serial, occurred in France from 2003 to 2007, led the authorities to establish a roadmap for securing radiotherapy. By analogy with industrial processes, a technical decision form the French Nuclear Safety Authority in 2008 requires radiotherapy professionals to conduct analyzes of risks to patients. The process of risk analysis had been tested in three pilot centers, before the occurrence of accidents, with the creation of cells feedback. The regulation now requires all radiotherapy services to have similar structures to collect precursor events, incidents and accidents, to perform analyzes following rigorous methods and to initiate corrective actions. At the same time, it is also required to conduct analyzes a priori, less intuitive, and usually require the help of a quality engineer, with the aim of reducing risk. The progressive implementation of these devices is part of an overall policy to improve the quality of radiotherapy. Since 2007, no radiotherapy accident was reported. PMID:23787020

  12. The development of risk analysis: a personal perspective.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Richard

    2012-12-01

    This article reflects on my experiences observing and participating in the development of risk analysis for environmental and health hazards since the 1970s with emphasis on its critical role in informing decisions with potentially high consequences, even for very low probability events once ignored or simply viewed as "acts of God." I discuss how modern society wants to protect itself from hazards with limited or no immediate historical precedent such that prediction and protective actions must depend on models that offer varying degrees of reliability. I believe that we must invest in understanding risks and risk models to ensure health in the future and protect ourselves from large challenges, including climate change, whether anthropogenic or otherwise, terrorism, and perhaps even cosmic change. PMID:22563748

  13. Meta-analysis of osteoporosis: fracture risks, medication and treatment.

    PubMed

    Liu, W; Yang, L-H; Kong, X-C; An, L-K; Wang, R

    2015-08-01

    Osteoporosis is a brittle bone disease that can cause fractures mostly in older men and women. Meta-analysis is the statistical method which is applied in the frame work for the assessment of results obtained from various research studies conducted in several years. A meta-analysis of osteoporotic fracture risk with medication non-adherence has been described to assess the bone fracture risk among patients non-adherent versus adherent to therapy for osteoporosis by many researchers. Osteoporosis therapy reduces the risk of fracture in clinical trials, and real-world adherence to therapy which is suboptimal and can reduce the effectiveness of intervention. The methods of Medline, Embase, and CINAHL were literature searched for these observational studies from year 1998 to 2009, and up to 2015. The results of meta-analysis of osteoporosis research on fractures of postmenopausal women and men are presented. The use of bisphosphonate therapy for osteoporosis has been described with other drugs. The authors, design, studies (women %), years (data), follow-up (wks), fractures (types), and compliance or persistence results from years 2004 to 2009 from are shown in a brief table. The meta-analysis studies have been reviewed from other researchers on osteoporosis and fractures, medications and treatments.

  14. Code System to Calculate Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis.

    2002-02-18

    Version 04 IRRAS Version 4.16, the latest in a series (2.0, 2.5, 4.0, 4.15), is a program developed for the purpose of performing those functions necessary to create and analyze a complete Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This program includes functions to allow the user to create event trees and fault trees, to define accident sequences and basic event failure data, to solve system and accident sequence fault trees, to quantify cut sets, and to performmore » uncertainty analysis on the results. Also included in this program are features to allow the analyst to generate reports and displays that can be used to document the results of an analysis. Since this software is a very detailed technical tool, the user of this program should be familiar with PRA concepts and the methods used to perform these analyses. IRRAS Version 4.16 is the latest in the stand-alone IRRAS series (2.0, 2.5, 4.0, 4.15). Be sure to review the PSR-405/ SAPHIRE 7.06 package which was released in January 2000 and includes three programs: the Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS), the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system, the Models And Results Database (MAR-D) system, and the Fault tree, Event tree and P&ID (FEP) editors.« less

  15. Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.

    2003-01-01

    A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

  16. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

  17. Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

    2016-01-01

    Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09-1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13-1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias-cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40-5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01-1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

  18. Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

    2016-01-01

    Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09-1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13-1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias-cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40-5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01-1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors.

  19. Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

    2016-01-01

    Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09–1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13–1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias—cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40–5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01–1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

  20. Risk assessment as an evolved threat detection and analysis process.

    PubMed

    Blanchard, D Caroline; Griebel, Guy; Pobbe, Roger; Blanchard, Robert J

    2011-03-01

    Risk assessment is a pattern of activities involved in detection and analysis of threat stimuli and the situations in which the threat is encountered. It is a core process in the choice of specific defenses, such as flight, freezing, defensive threat and defensive attack, that counter the threat and minimize the danger it poses. This highly adaptive process takes into account important characteristics, such as type and location (including distance from the subject) of the threat, as well as those (e.g. presence of an escape route or hiding place) of the situation, combining them to predict which specific defense is optimal with that particular combination of threat and situation. Risk assessment is particularly associated with ambiguity either of the threat stimulus or of the outcome of available defensive behaviors. It is also crucial in determining that threat is no longer present, permitting a return to normal, nondefensive behavior. Although risk assessment has been described in detail in rodents, it is also a feature of human defensive behavior, particularly in association with ambiguity. Rumination may be a specifically human form of risk assessment, more often expressed by women, and highly associated with anxiety. Risk assessment behaviors respond to drugs effective against generalized anxiety disorder; however, flight, a dominant specific defense in many common situations, shows a pharmacological response profile closer to that of panic disorder. Risk assessment and flight also appear to show some consistent differences in terms of brain regional activation patterns, suggesting a potential biological differentiation of anxiety and fear/panic systems. An especially intriguing possibility is that mirror neurons may respond to some of the same types of situational differences that are analyzed during risk assessment, suggesting an additional functional role for these neurons.

  1. Plasma prolactin and breast cancer risk: a meta- analysis

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Minghao; Wu, Xiujuan; Chai, Fan; Zhang, Yi; Jiang, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women, and its incidence is on a constant rise. Previous studies suggest that higher levels of plasma prolactin are associated with escalated risk of breast cancer, however, these results are contradictory and inconclusive. PubMed and Medline were used to search and identify published observational studies that assessed the relationship between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer. The pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a fixed-effects or random-effects model. A total of 7 studies were included in our analysis. For the highest versus lowest levels of plasma prolactin, the pooled RR (95% CI) of breast cancer were 1.16 (1.04, 1.29). In subgroup analyses, we found a positive association between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer among the patients who were postmenopausal, ER+/PR+ or in situ and invasive carcinoma. However, this positive association was not detected in the premenopausal and ER-/PR- patients. In conclusion, the present study provides evidence supporting a significantly positive association between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer. PMID:27184120

  2. Working session 5: Operational aspects and risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cizelj, L.; Donoghue, J.

    1997-02-01

    A general observation is that both operational aspects and risk analysis cannot be adequately discussed without information presented in other sessions. Some overlap of conclusions and recommendations is therefore to be expected. Further, it was assumed that recommendations concerning improvements in some related topics were generated by other sessions and are not repeated here. These include: (1) Knowledge on degradation mechanisms (initiation, progression, and failure). (2) Modeling of degradation (initiation, progression, and failure). (3) Capabilities of NDE methods. (4) Preventive maintenance and repair. One should note here, however, that all of these directly affect both operational and risk aspects of affected plants. A list of conclusions and recommendations is based on available presentations and discussions addressing risk and operational experience. The authors aimed at reaching as broad a consensus as possible. It should be noted here that there is no strict delineation between operational and safety aspects of degradation of steam generator tubes. This is caused by different risk perceptions in different countries/societies. The conclusions and recommendations were divided into four broad groups: human reliability; leakage monitoring; risk impact; and consequence assessment.

  3. [Radiobiological analysis of cancerogenic risk values in radioepidemiological investigations].

    PubMed

    Rozhdestvenskiĭ, L M

    2008-01-01

    The aim of the present article consisted in critical analysis of the epidemiological approach to radiocancerogenic risk estimation in region of low level radiation (LLR). The estimation is making by means of mathematician models that ignore a principal difference in biological action of LLR and high level radiation (HLR). The main formal characteristic of LLR action is the presence of a plateau in beginning of a dose-effect curve of radiogenic risk. It may be argued by the following positions: repeating the plateau-phenomenon on various radiobiological effects, in different tests and bioobjects, first; a paradoxical trend of reciprocal ERR/Sv increasing regarding dose decreasing in region of plateau, second, and third, the increasing of the curvature in dose-effect curve beginning. The presence of a plateau is associated with the presence of a real radiogenic risk threshold. Besides, the analysis of processes influencing significantly the dynamics of initial radiation injury of biologically important macromolecules showed the preference in region of LLR those, decreasing/eliminating genome damages. There is follows from mentioned above a necessity to evaluate radiogenic risks in LLR region separately from HLR region. PMID:18825986

  4. Software requirements specification for the program analysis and control system risk management module

    SciTech Connect

    SCHAEFER, J.C.

    1999-06-02

    TWR Program Analysis and Control System Risk Module is used to facilitate specific data processes surrounding the Risk Management program of the Tank Waste Retrieval environment. This document contains the Risk Management system requirements of the database system.

  5. Global Human Settlement Analysis for Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pesaresi, M.; Ehrlich, D.; Ferri, S.; Florczyk, A.; Freire, S.; Haag, F.; Halkia, M.; Julea, A. M.; Kemper, T.; Soille, P.

    2015-04-01

    The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) is supported by the European Commission, Joint Research Center (JRC) in the frame of his institutional research activities. Scope of GHSL is developing, testing and applying the technologies and analysis methods integrated in the JRC Global Human Settlement analysis platform for applications in support to global disaster risk reduction initiatives (DRR) and regional analysis in the frame of the European Cohesion policy. GHSL analysis platform uses geo-spatial data, primarily remotely sensed and population. GHSL also cooperates with the Group on Earth Observation on SB-04-Global Urban Observation and Information, and various international partners andWorld Bank and United Nations agencies. Some preliminary results integrating global human settlement information extracted from Landsat data records of the last 40 years and population data are presented.

  6. Application of classical process risk analysis tools to business risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Einolf, D.M.; Menghini, L.K.

    1999-07-01

    Process engineers and safety professionals have used qualitative and quantitative risk assessment techniques for many years to analyze process hazards. Environmental managers have recently been exposed to many of these techniques through submission of Accidental Release Risk Management Plans (40 CFR 68). This presentation discusses the broader application of such tools (Hazard and Operability Analysis, Fault-Tree, Failure Modes and Effects) to issues involving emergency and disaster preparedness and business contingency planning. In particular, the authors have successfully expanded the HazOp methodology to apply to a broad range of natural and man-made disasters that may affect continued business operations. Specific examples, including the development of comprehensive contingency planning for a water supply system, electronics manufacturer, and a distribution center will be discussed. These classical safety and reliability tools have broad application in the environmental planning arena, including emergency response and the operability of air and water pollution control equipment.

  7. Sensitivity analysis of a two-dimensional probabilistic risk assessment model using analysis of variance.

    PubMed

    Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Frey, H Christopher

    2005-12-01

    This article demonstrates application of sensitivity analysis to risk assessment models with two-dimensional probabilistic frameworks that distinguish between variability and uncertainty. A microbial food safety process risk (MFSPR) model is used as a test bed. The process of identifying key controllable inputs and key sources of uncertainty using sensitivity analysis is challenged by typical characteristics of MFSPR models such as nonlinearity, thresholds, interactions, and categorical inputs. Among many available sensitivity analysis methods, analysis of variance (ANOVA) is evaluated in comparison to commonly used methods based on correlation coefficients. In a two-dimensional risk model, the identification of key controllable inputs that can be prioritized with respect to risk management is confounded by uncertainty. However, as shown here, ANOVA provided robust insights regarding controllable inputs most likely to lead to effective risk reduction despite uncertainty. ANOVA appropriately selected the top six important inputs, while correlation-based methods provided misleading insights. Bootstrap simulation is used to quantify uncertainty in ranks of inputs due to sampling error. For the selected sample size, differences in F values of 60% or more were associated with clear differences in rank order between inputs. Sensitivity analysis results identified inputs related to the storage of ground beef servings at home as the most important. Risk management recommendations are suggested in the form of a consumer advisory for better handling and storage practices.

  8. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    PubMed

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009.

  9. A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas.

    PubMed

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub; Kujala, Pentti

    2015-06-01

    Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the most typical accident in ice navigation and general cargo the type of vessel most frequently involved in these accidents. Consolidated ice, ice ridges and ice thickness between 15 and 40cm represent the most common ice conditions in which accidents occur. Thus, the analysis presented in this article establishes the key elements for identifying the operation types which would benefit most from further safety engineering and safety or risk management development.

  10. Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Möderl, Michael; Rauch, Wolfgang

    2011-12-01

    The presented spatial risk assessment method allows for managing critical network infrastructure in urban areas under abnormal and future conditions caused e.g., by terrorist attacks, infrastructure deterioration or climate change. For the spatial risk assessment, vulnerability maps for critical network infrastructure are merged with hazard maps for an interfering process. Vulnerability maps are generated using a spatial sensitivity analysis of network transport models to evaluate performance decrease under investigated thread scenarios. Thereby parameters are varied according to the specific impact of a particular threat scenario. Hazard maps are generated with a geographical information system using raster data of the same threat scenario derived from structured interviews and cluster analysis of events in the past. The application of the spatial risk assessment is exemplified by means of a case study for a water supply system, but the principal concept is applicable likewise to other critical network infrastructure. The aim of the approach is to help decision makers in choosing zones for preventive measures.

  11. A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas.

    PubMed

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub; Kujala, Pentti

    2015-06-01

    Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the most typical accident in ice navigation and general cargo the type of vessel most frequently involved in these accidents. Consolidated ice, ice ridges and ice thickness between 15 and 40cm represent the most common ice conditions in which accidents occur. Thus, the analysis presented in this article establishes the key elements for identifying the operation types which would benefit most from further safety engineering and safety or risk management development. PMID:25819212

  12. Recent Advances in Launch Vehicle Toxic Hazard and Risk Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyman, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    A number of widely used rocket propellants produce toxic combustion byproducts or are themselves toxic in their un-reacted state. In this paper we focus on the methodology used to evaluate early flight catastrophic failures and nominal launch emissions that release large amounts of propellant or combustion products into the planetary boundary layer that pose a potential risk to launch area personnel, spectators, or the general public. The United States has traditionally used the Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion Model (REEDM) [1] to access the hazard zones associated with such releases. REEDM is a 1970's vintage Gaussian atmospheric dispersion model that is limited in its ability to accurately simulate certain aspects of the initial source geometry and dynamics of a vehicle breakup and propellant fragment dispersion. The Launch Area Toxic Risk Analysis 3-Dimensional (LATRA3D) [2] computer program has been developed that addresses many of REEDM's deficiencies. LATRA3D is a probabilistic risk analysis tool that simulates both nominal vehicle flight and in-flight failure emissions.

  13. Advancing Usability Evaluation through Human Reliability Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

    2005-07-01

    This paper introduces a novel augmentation to the current heuristic usability evaluation methodology. The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method was developed for categorizing human performance in nuclear power plants. Despite the specialized use of SPAR-H for safety critical scenarios, the method also holds promise for use in commercial off-the-shelf software usability evaluations. The SPAR-H method shares task analysis underpinnings with human-computer interaction, and it can be easily adapted to incorporate usability heuristics as performance shaping factors. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). This UEP is not a literal probability of error but nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. When combined with a consequence matrix for usability errors, this method affords ready prioritization of usability issues.

  14. Genesis of the Spar Lake strata-bound copper- silver deposit, Montana: part I. Controls inherited from sedimentation and preore diagenesis ( USA).

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayes, T.S.; Einaudi, M.T.

    1986-01-01

    Mineable zones of the Spar Lake deposit occur where argentiferous Cu sulfides and native Ag formed cements and replaced certain earlier cements and clasts in the gently dipping middle quartzite beds of the upper member of the Revett Formation, middle Proterozoic Belt Supergroup. The Cu sulfides and native Ag are part of a large, zoned system of authigenic ore and gangue minerals at Spar Lake. Mineral zone boundaries of ore and gangue phases cross all 5 stratigraphic units of the upper member. Deduced depositional environments for the host sedimentary rocks include beach and nearshore slope environments for the lower quartzite beds and subtidal(?) channels for the middle quartzite beds. The deposit must be epigenetic because mineral zone boundaries cross every facies in the sequence of beach and nearshore slope sediments. The distributions of mineral zones and ore grades were controlled by 2 factors, one inherited from sedimentation and the other from preore diagenesis.-from Authors

  15. The Shank3 Interaction Partner ProSAPiP1 Regulates Postsynaptic SPAR Levels and the Maturation of Dendritic Spines in Hippocampal Neurons

    PubMed Central

    Reim, Dominik; Weis, Tobias M.; Halbedl, Sonja; Delling, Jan Philipp; Grabrucker, Andreas M.; Boeckers, Tobias M.; Schmeisser, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    The postsynaptic density or PSD is a submembranous compartment containing a wide array of proteins that contribute to both morphology and function of excitatory glutamatergic synapses. In this study, we have analyzed functional aspects of the Fezzin ProSAP-interacting protein 1 (ProSAPiP1), an interaction partner of the well-known PSD proteins Shank3 and SPAR. Using lentiviral-mediated overexpression and knockdown of ProSAPiP1, we found that this protein is dispensable for the formation of both pre- and postsynaptic specializations per se. We further show that ProSAPiP1 regulates SPAR levels at the PSD and the maturation of dendritic spines. In line with previous findings on the ProSAPiP1 homolog PSD-Zip70, we conclude that Fezzins essentially contribute to the maturation of excitatory spine synapses. PMID:27252646

  16. From network analysis to risk analysis--An approach to risk-based surveillance for bovine tuberculosis in Minnesota, US.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro-Lima, J; Enns, E A; Thompson, B; Craft, M E; Wells, S J

    2015-03-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) was first detected in 2005 in cattle in northwestern Minnesota (MN) through slaughter surveillance. By the end of 2008, 12 cattle herds were infected with bTB, and the main cause for infection was determined to be the movement of infected animals between herds. Bovine tuberculosis was contained in a smaller area in northwestern Minnesota classified as modified accredited (MA), corresponding to a prevalence inferior to 0.1% in cattle. From January 2008 to 2011, all cattle movements within the bTB MA were recorded electronically. The primary objectives of this study were to characterize cattle movements within this region and identify cattle herds with higher risk of bTB introduction based on network parameters and known risk factors from the published literature. During the period that data was collected, 57,460 cattle were moved in 3762 movements corresponding to permits issued to 682 premises, mostly representing private farms, sale yards, slaughter facilities and county or state fairs. Although sale yards represented less than 2% of the premises (nodes), 60% of the movements were to or from a sale yard. The network showed an overall density of 0.4%, a clustering coefficient of 14.6% and a betweenness centralization index of 12.7%, reflecting the low connectivity of this cattle network. The degree distribution showed that 20% of nodes performed 90% of the movements. Farms were ranked based on the total risk score and divided into high, medium, and low risk groups based on the score and its variability. The higher risk group included 14% (n=50) of the farms, corresponding to 80% of the cumulative risk for the farms in the bTB area. This analysis provides a baseline description about the contact structure of cattle movements in an area previously infected with bTB and develops a framework for a targeted surveillance approach for bTB to support future surveillance decisions.

  17. Petri net modeling of fault analysis for probabilistic risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Andrew

    Fault trees and event trees have been widely accepted as the modeling strategy to perform Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). However, there are several limitations associated with fault tree/event tree modeling. These include 1. It only considers binary events; 2. It assumes independence among basic events; and 3. It does not consider timing sequence of basic events. This thesis investigates Petri net modeling as a potential alternative for PRA modeling. Petri nets have mainly been used as a simulation tool for queuing and network systems. However, it has been suggested that they could also model failure scenarios, and thus could be a potential modeling strategy for PRA. In this thesis, the transformations required to model logic gates in a fault tree by Petri nets are explored. The gap between fault tree analysis and Petri net analysis is bridged through gate equivalency analysis. Methods for qualitative and quantitative analysis for Petri nets are presented. Techniques are developed and implemented to revise and tailor traditional Petri net modeling for system failure analysis. The airlock system and the maintenance cooling system of a CANada Deuterium Uranium (CANDU) reactor are used as case studies to demonstrate Petri nets ability to model system failure and provide a structured approach for qualitative and quantitative analysis. The minimal cutsets and the probability of the airlock system failing to maintain the pressure boundary are obtained. Furthermore, the case study is extended to non-coherent system analysis due to system maintenance.

  18. Risk analysis and the law: international law, the World Trade Organization, Codex Alimentarius and national legislation.

    PubMed

    Horton, L R

    2001-12-01

    This paper discusses the place of risk analysis in international trade from a US perspective, through looking at the activities of the World Trade Organization and the Codex Alimentarius Commission. After examining what the trade agreements say about risk analysis and how international bodies are advancing and using risk analysis, the paper goes on to assess how risk analysis is used at a national level. Finally, recommendations are made for strengthening international food safety initiatives.

  19. LAVA (Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology): A conceptual framework for automated risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.; Phillips, J.R.; Tisinger, R.M.; Brown, D.C.; FitzGerald, P.D.

    1986-01-01

    At Los Alamos National Laboratory, we have developed an original methodology for performing risk analyses on subject systems characterized by a general set of asset categories, a general spectrum of threats, a definable system-specific set of safeguards protecting the assets from the threats, and a general set of outcomes resulting from threats exploiting weaknesses in the safeguards system. The Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology (LAVA) models complex systems having large amounts of ''soft'' information about both the system itself and occurrences related to the system. Its structure lends itself well to automation on a portable computer, making it possible to analyze numerous similar but geographically separated installations consistently and in as much depth as the subject system warrants. LAVA is based on hierarchical systems theory, event trees, fuzzy sets, natural-language processing, decision theory, and utility theory. LAVA's framework is a hierarchical set of fuzzy event trees that relate the results of several embedded (or sub-) analyses: a vulnerability assessment providing information about the presence and efficacy of system safeguards, a threat analysis providing information about static (background) and dynamic (changing) threat components coupled with an analysis of asset ''attractiveness'' to the dynamic threat, and a consequence analysis providing information about the outcome spectrum's severity measures and impact values. By using LAVA, we have modeled our widely used computer security application as well as LAVA/CS systems for physical protection, transborder data flow, contract awards, and property management. It is presently being applied for modeling risk management in embedded systems, survivability systems, and weapons systems security. LAVA is especially effective in modeling subject systems that include a large human component.

  20. Contextual Risk Factors for Low Birth Weight: A Multilevel Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kayode, Gbenga A.; Amoakoh-Coleman, Mary; Agyepong, Irene Akua; Ansah, Evelyn; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin

    2014-01-01

    Background Low birth weight (LBW) remains to be a leading cause of neonatal death and a major contributor to infant and under-five mortality. Its prevalence has not declined in the last decade in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Asia. Some individual level factors have been identified as risk factors for LBW but knowledge is limited on contextual risk factors for LBW especially in SSA. Methods Contextual risk factors for LBW in Ghana were identified by performing multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis of 6,900 mothers dwelling in 412 communities that participated in the 2003 and 2008 Demographic and Health Surveys in Ghana. Results Contextual-level factors were significantly associated with LBW: Being a rural dweller increased the likelihood of having a LBW infant by 43% (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.01–2.01; P-value <0.05) while living in poverty-concentrated communities increased the risk of having a LBW infant twofold (OR 2.16; 95% CI 1.29–3.61; P-value <0.01). In neighbourhoods with a high coverage of safe water supply the odds of having a LBW infant reduced by 28% (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.57–0.96; P-value <0.05). Conclusion This study showed contextual risk factors to have independent effects on the prevalence of LBW infants. Being a rural dweller, living in a community with a high concentration of poverty and a low coverage of safe water supply were found to increase the prevalence of LBW infants. Implementing appropriate community-based intervention programmes will likely reduce the occurrence of LBW infants. PMID:25360709

  1. Characterization and Risk Factor Analysis for Reoperation After Microendoscopic Diskectomy.

    PubMed

    Hong, Xin; Liu, Lei; Bao, Junping; Shi, Rui; Fan, Yudong; Wu, Xiaotao

    2015-06-01

    A population-based database of 1263 consecutive patients who underwent microendoscopic diskectomy for single-level lumbar disk herniation between 2005 and 2010 was retrospectively analyzed to identify causes and characteristics of reoperation and associated risk factors. A total of 952 patients were eligible. Of these, 58 had revision spinal surgery. Causes and clinical parameters were retrospectively assessed, and possible risk factors were evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analysis. In total, 76 disk herniations were excised with revision diskectomy, with or without interbody fusion. The overall mean interval between primary surgery and revision surgery was 39.05 months (range, 2-95 months). Cumulative overall reoperation rates gradually increased from 1.56% at 1 year to 8.17% after nearly 10 years. Reoperated patients were older and had a higher level of lumbar degeneration, with severe Modic changes (type 1, 17.2%; type 2, 34.5%), vs patients without reoperation (type 1, 1.5%; type 2, 30.6%). In addition, patients with reoperation had a higher rate of obvious adjacent disk degeneration (81.1%). Logistic regression analysis showed that adjacent segment degeneration and Pfirrmann grading for disk degeneration were significant risk factors for reoperation after primary microendoscopic diskectomy (odds ratios, 2.448 and 1.510, respectively). The current study reported a relatively low incidence of reoperation after primary microendoscopic diskectomy. Adjacent segment degeneration and Pfirrmann grading for disk degeneration were identified as risk factors for reoperation after microendoscopic diskectomy to treat lumbar disk herniation. Treatment options for patients with these factors at the first visit should be carefully evaluated. PMID:26091222

  2. 14 CFR 420.25 - Launch site location review-risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Launch site location review-risk analysis... Requirements for Obtaining a License § 420.25 Launch site location review—risk analysis. (a) If a flight... risk analysis. (b) For licensed launches, the FAA will not approve the location of the proposed...

  3. 14 CFR 420.25 - Launch site location review-risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Launch site location review-risk analysis... Requirements for Obtaining a License § 420.25 Launch site location review—risk analysis. (a) If a flight... risk analysis. (b) For licensed launches, the FAA will not approve the location of the proposed...

  4. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

    2015-04-01

    Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

  5. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures.

  6. Radiological risk analysis of potential SP-100 space mission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Bartram, B.W.; Weitzberg, A.

    1988-08-19

    This report presents a radiological risk analysis of three representative space mission scenarios utilizing a fission reactor. The mission profiles considered are: a high-altitude mission, launched by a TITAN IV launch vehicle, boosted by chemical upper stages into its operational orbit, a interplanetary nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) mission, started directly from a shuttle parking orbit, a low-altitude mission, launched by the Shuttle and boosted by a chemical stage to its operational orbit, with subsequent disposal boost after operation. 21 refs., 12 figs., 7 tabs.

  7. Fire risk evaluation using multicriteria analysis--a case study.

    PubMed

    Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad; Eaturu, Anuradha; Badarinath, K V S

    2010-07-01

    Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance and environmental concerns in tropical deciduous forests of south India. In this study, we use fuzzy set theory integrated with decision-making algorithm in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to map forest fire risk. Fuzzy set theory implements classes or groupings of data with boundaries that are not sharply defined (i.e., fuzzy) and consists of a rule base, membership functions, and an inference procedure. We used satellite remote sensing datasets in conjunction with topographic, vegetation, climate, and socioeconomic datasets to infer the causative factors of fires. Spatial-level data on these biophysical and socioeconomic parameters have been aggregated at the district level and have been organized in a GIS framework. A participatory multicriteria decision-making approach involving Analytical Hierarchy Process has been designed to arrive at a decision matrix that identified the important causative factors of fires. These expert judgments were then integrated using spatial fuzzy decision-making algorithm to map the forest fire risk. Results from this study were quite useful in identifying potential "hotspots" of fire risk, where forest fire protection measures can be taken in advance. Further, this study also demonstrates the potential of multicriteria analysis integrated with GIS as an effective tool in assessing "where and when" forest fires will most likely occur.

  8. Analysis of Radiation Pneumonitis Risk Using a Generalized Lyman Model

    SciTech Connect

    Tucker, Susan L. Liu, H. Helen; Liao Zhongxing; Wei Xiong; Wang Shulian; Jin Hekun; Komaki, Ritsuko; Martel, Mary K.; Mohan, Radhe

    2008-10-01

    Purpose: To introduce a version of the Lyman normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) model adapted to incorporate censored time-to-toxicity data and clinical risk factors and to apply the generalized model to analysis of radiation pneumonitis (RP) risk. Methods and Materials: Medical records and radiation treatment plans were reviewed retrospectively for 576 patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated with radiotherapy. The time to severe (Grade {>=}3) RP was computed, with event times censored at last follow-up for patients not experiencing this endpoint. The censored time-to-toxicity data were analyzed using the standard and generalized Lyman models with patient smoking status taken into account. Results: The generalized Lyman model with patient smoking status taken into account produced NTCP estimates up to 27 percentage points different from the model based on dose-volume factors alone. The generalized model also predicted that 8% of the expected cases of severe RP were unobserved because of censoring. The estimated volume parameter for lung was not significantly different from n = 1, corresponding to mean lung dose. Conclusions: NTCP models historically have been based solely on dose-volume effects and binary (yes/no) toxicity data. Our results demonstrate that inclusion of nondosimetric risk factors and censored time-to-event data can markedly affect outcome predictions made using NTCP models.

  9. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  10. A framework for the animal health risk analysis of biotechnology-derived animals: a Canadian perspective.

    PubMed

    Moreau, P I; Jordan, L T

    2005-04-01

    This paper describes the framework used by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency to assess the risks to animal health associated with biotechnology-derived animals and their products. In Canada the risks to animal health associated with biotechnology-derived animals are one consideration among several other regulatory concerns (e.g. human health, the environment). The risk analysis process begins with hazard identification, includes a risk assessment for each hazard, and concludes with risk management and risk communication.

  11. Risk Perception Analysis Related To Existing Dams In Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solimene, Pellegrino

    2013-04-01

    earthfill dam is illustrated by defining the risk analysis during its construction and operation. A qualitative "Event Tree Analysis" makes clear with an example the probability of occurrence of the events triggered by an earthquake, and leads to a classification of the damage level. Finally, a System Dynamics (SD) approach is presented to investigate possibilities of a preventive planning in relationship to the risk, so that it's possible to establish shared procedures to achieve the correct management in any crisis phase. As a qualitative result of a SD application, figure 1 presents a flow-chart about a case study on the same dam so to illustrate the emergency planning in a step by step procedure according to the Regulations.

  12. Bisphosphonates and Risk of Cardiovascular Events: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Dae Hyun; Rogers, James R.; Fulchino, Lisa A.; Kim, Caroline A.; Solomon, Daniel H.; Kim, Seoyoung C.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives Some evidence suggests that bisphosphonates may reduce atherosclerosis, while concerns have been raised about atrial fibrillation. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the effects of bisphosphonates on total adverse cardiovascular (CV) events, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and CV death in adults with or at risk for low bone mass. Methods A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE through July 2014 identified 58 randomized controlled trials with longer than 6 months in duration that reported CV events. Absolute risks and the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of total CV events, atrial fibrillation, MI, stroke, and CV death were estimated. Subgroup analyses by follow-up duration, population characteristics, bisphosphonate types, and route were performed. Results Absolute risks over 25–36 months in bisphosphonate-treated versus control patients were 6.5% versus 6.2% for total CV events; 1.4% versus 1.5% for atrial fibrillation; 1.0% versus 1.2% for MI; 1.6% versus 1.9% for stroke; and 1.5% versus 1.4% for CV death. Bisphosphonate treatment up to 36 months did not have any significant effects on total CV events (14 trials; ORs [95% CI]: 0.98 [0.84–1.14]; I2 = 0.0%), atrial fibrillation (41 trials; 1.08 [0.92–1.25]; I2 = 0.0%), MI (10 trials; 0.96 [0.69–1.34]; I2 = 0.0%), stroke (10 trials; 0.99 [0.82–1.19]; I2 = 5.8%), and CV death (14 trials; 0.88 [0.72–1.07]; I2 = 0.0%) with little between-study heterogeneity. The risk of atrial fibrillation appears to be modestly elevated for zoledronic acid (6 trials; 1.24 [0.96–1.61]; I2 = 0.0%), not for oral bisphosphonates (26 trials; 1.02 [0.83–1.24]; I2 = 0.0%). The CV effects did not vary by subgroups or study quality. Conclusions Bisphosphonates do not have beneficial or harmful effects on atherosclerotic CV events, but zoledronic acid may modestly increase the risk of atrial fibrillation. Given the large

  13. Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) tool to support risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McConnell, Emma R; Bell, Shannon M; Cote, Ila; Wang, Rong-Lin; Perkins, Edward J; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gong, Ping; Burgoon, Lyle D

    2014-01-01

    Environmental health risk assessors are challenged to understand and incorporate new data streams as the field of toxicology continues to adopt new molecular and systems biology technologies. Systematic screening reviews can help risk assessors and assessment teams determine which studies to consider for inclusion in a human health assessment. A tool for systematic reviews should be standardized and transparent in order to consistently determine which studies meet minimum quality criteria prior to performing in-depth analyses of the data. The Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) tool is focused on assisting risk assessment support teams in performing systematic reviews of transcriptomic studies. SOAR is a spreadsheet tool of 35 objective questions developed by domain experts, focused on transcriptomic microarray studies, and including four main topics: test system, test substance, experimental design, and microarray data. The tool will be used as a guide to identify studies that meet basic published quality criteria, such as those defined by the Minimum Information About a Microarray Experiment standard and the Toxicological Data Reliability Assessment Tool. Seven scientists were recruited to test the tool by using it to independently rate 15 published manuscripts that study chemical exposures with microarrays. Using their feedback, questions were weighted based on importance of the information and a suitability cutoff was set for each of the four topic sections. The final validation resulted in 100% agreement between the users on four separate manuscripts, showing that the SOAR tool may be used to facilitate the standardized and transparent screening of microarray literature for environmental human health risk assessment. PMID:25531884

  14. A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents a model for risk analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental risk. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a well-founded formula for risk calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the model is regarded a block type model, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident modelling. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of deterministic formulation. Risk due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.

  15. RAVEN, a New Software for Dynamic Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cristian Rabiti; Andrea Alfonsi; Joshua Cogliati; Diego Mandelli; Robert Kinoshita

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN is a generic software driver to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis of code simulating complex systems. Initially developed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the RELAP-7 code [1] is currently being generalized with the addition of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These interfaces are used to extend RAVEN capabilities to any software as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or directly via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable to investigate the system response probing the input space using Monte Carlo, grid strategies, or Latin Hyper Cube schemes, but its strength is its focus toward system feature discovery like limit surfaces separating regions of the input space leading to system failure using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The paper will present an overview of the software capabilities and their implementation schemes followed by same application examples.

  16. Development of partial failure analysis method in probability risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Ni, T.; Modarres, M.

    1996-12-01

    This paper presents a new approach to evaluate the partial failure effect on current Probability Risk Assessments (PRAs). An integrated methodology of the thermal-hydraulic analysis and fuzzy logic simulation using the Dynamic Master Logic Diagram (DMLD) was developed. The thermal-hydraulic analysis used in this approach is to identify partial operation effect of any PRA system function in a plant model. The DMLD is used to simulate the system performance of the partial failure effect and inspect all minimal cut sets of system functions. This methodology can be applied in the context of a full scope PRA to reduce core damage frequency. An example of this application of the approach is presented. The partial failure data used in the example is from a survey study of partial failure effects from the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS).

  17. Prenatal stress increased Snk Polo-like kinase 2, SCF β-TrCP ubiquitin ligase and ubiquitination of SPAR in the hippocampus of the offspring at adulthood.

    PubMed

    Chutabhakdikul, Naunchan; Surakul, Pornprom

    2013-11-01

    Exposure to excessive glucocorticoids during fetal development period contributes to later life psychopathology. Prenatal stress decreases dendritic spine density and impair LTP in the hippocampus of rat pups, however, the mechanisms regulating these changes are still unclear. Glutamate receptors are localized in the postsynaptic density. PSD-95 is a postsynaptic scaffolding protein that plays a role in synaptic maturation and regulation of the synaptic strength and plasticity. PSD-95 interacts with other proteins to form the protein networks that promote dendritic spine formation. The present study investigated the effect of prenatal stress on the levels of scaffolding proteins of NMDA receptor in the hippocampus in order to explain how prenatal stress alters the amount of NMDA receptor in the pups' brain. Pregnant rats were randomly assigned to either the prenatal stress (PS) or the control group (C). The pregnant rats in the PS group were restrained in a plexiglas restrainer for 4h/day during the GD 14-21. Control rats were left undisturbed for the duration of their pregnancies. The amount of PSD-95, SPAR, NR2A and NR2B, as well as the levels of Snk Polo-like kinase 2 and the SCF β-TrCP ubiquitin ligase were measured in the hippocampus of the offspring. The results show that prenatal stress induces a reduction in the amount of NR2B and NR2A subunits in the hippocampus of rat pups, parallel to the decrease in PSD-95 and SPAR at P40 and P60. Moreover, prenatal stress increases Snk and β-TrCP in the hippocampus of rat pups, and the timing correlates with the decrease of SPAR and PSD-95. Prenatal stress also induces a significantly increases in the level of ubiquitinated SPAR in the hippocampus of rat pups at adulthood. The results suggest that degradation of SPAR via UPS system may contribute to the loss of PSD-95 and NMDA receptor subunits in the hippocampus of rat pups at adulthood. In conclusion, the present work demonstrates that the developing brain is

  18. MICA polymorphisms and cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Ji, Mengyao; Wang, Jun; Yuan, Lei; Zhang, Yunting; Zhang, Jixiang; Dong, Weiguo; Peng, Xiulan

    2015-01-01

    The major histocompatibility complex class I chain-related gene A transmembrane (MICA-TM) polymorphism has been implicated in susceptibility to cancer. However, the results are inconsistent. The aim of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the association between the MICA-TM polymorphisms and cancer risk. All eligible case-control studies published up to August 20, 2014 were identified by searching PubMed, Web of Science, CNKI and Wanfang databases. The cancer risk associated with the MICA polymorphism was estimated for each study by odds ratios (OR) together with its 95% confidence interval (CI), respectively. 21 studies from 19 publications with 3620 cases and 4903 controls were included. Overall, no significant associations between the MICA-TM polymorphism and cancer risk were found (A4 allele: OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.88-1.07; A5 allele: OR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.81-1.04; A5.1 allele: OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.89-1.18; A6 allele: OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.95-1.15; A9 allele: OR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.80-1.14; A10 allele: OR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.43-1.79; del: OR = 2.50, 95% CI: 0.73-8.58; A7 allele: OR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.43-2.00). When stratified by ethnicity, similar results were observed among Asians; however, there were significant association in Caucasian population for A5 (OR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.68-0.87) and A9 allele (OR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.66-0.85). This meta-analysis suggests that the MICA-TM A5 and A9 alleles may be an important protective factor for cancer in Caucasian populations.

  19. Dietary acrylamide and cancer risk: an updated meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Pelucchi, Claudio; Bosetti, Cristina; Galeone, Carlotta; La Vecchia, Carlo

    2015-06-15

    The debate on the potential carcinogenic effect of dietary acrylamide is open. In consideration of the recent findings from large prospective investigations, we conducted an updated meta-analysis on acrylamide intake and the risk of cancer at several sites. Up to July 2014, we identified 32 publications. We performed meta-analyses to calculate the summary relative risk (RR) of each cancer site for the highest versus lowest level of intake and for an increment of 10 µg/day of dietary acrylamide, through fixed-effects or random-effects models, depending on the heterogeneity test. Fourteen cancer sites could be examined. No meaningful associations were found for most cancers considered. The summary RRs for high versus low acrylamide intake were 0.87 for oral and pharyngeal, 1.14 for esophageal, 1.03 for stomach, 0.94 for colorectal, 0.93 for pancreatic, 1.10 for laryngeal, 0.88 for lung, 0.96 for breast, 1.06 for endometrial, 1.12 for ovarian, 1.00 for prostate, 0.93 for bladder and 1.13 for lymphoid malignancies. The RR was of borderline significance only for kidney cancer (RR = 1.20; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.00-1.45). All the corresponding continuous estimates ranged between 0.95 and 1.03, and none of them was significant. Among never-smokers, borderline associations with dietary acrylamide emerged for endometrial (RR = 1.23; 95% CI, 1.00-1.51) and ovarian (RR = 1.39; 95% CI, 0.97-2.00) cancers. This systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies indicates that dietary acrylamide is not related to the risk of most common cancers. A modest association for kidney cancer, and for endometrial and ovarian cancers in never smokers only, cannot be excluded.

  20. Post mitigation impact risk analysis for asteroid deflection demonstration missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; Thuillot, William; Bancelin, David; Cano, Juan L.; Cichocki, Filippo

    2015-08-01

    Even though mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can validate this claim. Such a deflection demonstration attempt has to be cost effective, easy to validate, and safe in the sense that harmless asteroids must not be turned into potentially hazardous objects. Uncertainties in an asteroid's orbital and physical parameters as well as those additionally introduced during a mitigation attempt necessitate an in depth analysis of deflection mission designs in order to dispel planetary safety concerns. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential kinetic impactor based deflection demonstration missions proposed in the framework of the NEOShield project. Our results confirm that mitigation induced uncertainties have a significant influence on the deflection outcome. Those cannot be neglected in post deflection impact risk studies. We show, furthermore, that deflection missions have to be assessed on an individual basis in order to ensure that asteroids are not inadvertently transported closer to the Earth at a later date. Finally, we present viable targets and mission designs for a kinetic impactor test to be launched between the years 2025 and 2032.

  1. A Hygrothermal Risk Analysis Applied to Residential Unvented Attics

    SciTech Connect

    Pallin, Simon B; Kehrer, Manfred

    2013-01-01

    Aresidential building, constructed with an unvented attic, is acommonroof assembly in the United States.The expected hygrothermal performance and service life of the roof are difficult to estimate due to a number of varying parameters.Typical parameters expected to vary are the climate, direction, and slope of the roof as well as the radiation properties of the surface material. Furthermore, influential parameters are indoor moisture excess, air leakages through the attic floor, and leakages from air-handling unit and ventilation ducts. In addition, the type of building materials such as the insulation material and closed or open cell spray polyurethane foam will influence the future performance of the roof. A development of a simulation model of the roof assembly will enable a risk and sensitivity analysis, in which the most important varying parameters on the hygrothermal performance can be determined. The model is designed to perform probabilistic simulations using mathematical and hygrothermal calculation tools. The varying input parameters can be chosen from existing measurements, simulations, or standards. An analysis is applied to determine the risk of consequences, such as mold growth, rot, or energy demand of the HVAC unit. Furthermore, the future performance of the roof can be simulated in different climates to facilitate the design of an efficient and reliable roof construction with the most suitable technical solution and to determine the most appropriate building materials for a given climate

  2. An adhesive bond state classification method for a composite skin-to-spar joint using chaotic insonification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fasel, Timothy R.; Todd, Michael D.

    2010-07-01

    The combination of chaotically amplitude-modulated ultrasonic waves and time series prediction algorithms has shown the ability to locate and classify various bond state damage conditions of a composite bonded joint. This study examines the ability of a new two-part supervised learning classification scheme not only to classify disbond size but also to classify whether a bond for which there is no baseline data is undamaged or has some form of disbond. This classification is performed using data from a similarly configured composite bond for which baseline data are available. The test structures are analogous to a wing skin-to-spar bonded joint. An active excitation signal is imparted to the structure through a macro fiber composite (MFC) patch on one side of the bonded joint and sensed using an equivalent MFC patch on the opposite side of the joint. There is an MFC actuator/sensor pair for each bond condition to be identified. The classification approach compares features derived from an autoregressive (AR) model coefficient vector cross-assurance criterion.

  3. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-05-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges.

  4. Incorporating Classification Uncertainty in Competing- risks Nest- failure Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Nesting birds risk nest failure due to many causes. Though partitioning risk of failure among causes has long been of interest to ornithologists, formal methods for estimating competing risk have been lacking.

  5. A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Scholze, Marko; Knorr, Wolfgang; Arnell, Nigel W; Prentice, I Colin

    2006-08-29

    We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2 degrees C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2-3 degrees C, and >3 degrees C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50 degrees N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3 degrees C than for <2 degrees C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of approximately 1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3 degrees C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant. PMID:16924112

  6. Postpartum haemorrhage in Zimbabwe: a risk factor analysis.

    PubMed

    Tsu, V D

    1993-04-01

    For both cases and controls, only singleton, vertex births with spontaneous onset of labor without oxytocic or instrumental intervention during delivery between May 1 and December 31, 1989, were included, and all eligible mothers were residents of Greater Harare. There were 2 case groups: women with postpartum hemorrhage after a normal vaginal delivery, and women with cephalopelvic disproportion (CPD) requiring surgical or instrumental delivery. Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) was defined as excess bleeding with a minimum of 600 ml rather than 500 ml. Data were abstracted from the medical records. 2 control groups (PPH and CPD) were combined for a control group of 299 normal deliveries. Cases were much more likely than controls to have a traumatic delivery involving vaginal or cervical tears, which accounted for more than one-third of the hemorrhages. Uterine atony was the most common cause of PPH. There was one maternal death among the cases (case fatality rate of 6.6/1000). The perinatal mortality among the cases was 33.8/1000 live births (3 stillbirths, 2 neonatal deaths) and none among controls. Although cases and controls had similar mean gravidity (3.3) and parity (2.2), cases were more likely to have had either none or 1 previous delivery. Cases also had a higher proportion of grand multiparas (5 or more previous deliveries). More cases than controls reported outcomes such as PPH, miscarriage in the first or second trimester, or neonatal death. The results of the logistic regression analysis showed that women 35 years or more at delivery were at 2.5 times greater risk of PPH than were younger women. Women who were hospitalized antenatally for a pregnancy-related problem were at 3-4 times greater risk of PPH than were women without hospitalization. Occiput transverse or posterior fetal head position was associated with a nearly/10-fold greater relative risk for PPH.

  7. Evaluating Geographically Weighted Regression Models for Environmental Chemical Risk Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Czarnota, Jenna; Wheeler, David C; Gennings, Chris

    2015-01-01

    In the evaluation of cancer risk related to environmental chemical exposures, the effect of many correlated chemicals on disease is often of interest. The relationship between correlated environmental chemicals and health effects is not always constant across a study area, as exposure levels may change spatially due to various environmental factors. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been proposed to model spatially varying effects. However, concerns about collinearity effects, including regression coefficient sign reversal (ie, reversal paradox), may limit the applicability of GWR for environmental chemical risk analysis. A penalized version of GWR, the geographically weighted lasso, has been proposed to remediate the collinearity effects in GWR models. Our focus in this study was on assessing through a simulation study the ability of GWR and GWL to correctly identify spatially varying chemical effects for a mixture of correlated chemicals within a study area. Our results showed that GWR suffered from the reversal paradox, while GWL overpenalized the effects for the chemical most strongly related to the outcome. PMID:25983546

  8. Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

  9. Approximate Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis with Vine Copulas

    PubMed Central

    Bedford, Tim; Daneshkhah, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Many applications of risk analysis require us to jointly model multiple uncertain quantities. Bayesian networks and copulas are two common approaches to modeling joint uncertainties with probability distributions. This article focuses on new methodologies for copulas by developing work of Cooke, Bedford, Kurowica, and others on vines as a way of constructing higher dimensional distributions that do not suffer from some of the restrictions of alternatives such as the multivariate Gaussian copula. The article provides a fundamental approximation result, demonstrating that we can approximate any density as closely as we like using vines. It further operationalizes this result by showing how minimum information copulas can be used to provide parametric classes of copulas that have such good levels of approximation. We extend previous approaches using vines by considering nonconstant conditional dependencies, which are particularly relevant in financial risk modeling. We discuss how such models may be quantified, in terms of expert judgment or by fitting data, and illustrate the approach by modeling two financial data sets. PMID:26332240

  10. NEW APPROACHES IN RISK ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STRESSORS TO HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explore the application of novel techniques for improving and integrating risk analysis of environmental stressors to human and ecological systems. Environmental protection decisions are guided by risk assessments serving as tools to develop regulatory policy and other relate...

  11. Supervised discretization can discover risk groups in cancer survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Gómez, Iván; Ribelles, Nuria; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José M

    2016-11-01

    Discretization of continuous variables is a common practice in medical research to identify risk patient groups. This work compares the performance of gold-standard categorization procedures (TNM+A protocol) with that of three supervised discretization methods from Machine Learning (CAIM, ChiM and DTree) in the stratification of patients with breast cancer. The performance for the discretization algorithms was evaluated based on the results obtained after applying standard survival analysis procedures such as Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox regression and predictive modelling. The results show that the application of alternative discretization algorithms could lead the clinicians to get valuable information for the diagnosis and outcome of the disease. Patient data were collected from the Medical Oncology Service of the Hospital Clínico Universitario (Málaga, Spain) considering a follow up period from 1982 to 2008. PMID:27686699

  12. Risk analysis of sustainable urban drainage and irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ursino, Nadia

    2015-09-01

    Urbanization, by creating extended impervious areas, to the detriment of vegetated ones, may have an undesirable influence on the water and energy balances of urban environments. The storage and infiltration capacity of the drainage system lessens the negative influence of urbanization, and vegetated areas help to re-establish pre-development environmental conditions. Resource limitation, climate, leading to increasing water scarcity, demographic and socio-institutional shifts promote more integrated water management. Storm-water harvesting for landscape irrigation mitigates possible water restrictions for the urban population in drought scenarios. A new probabilistic model for sustainable rainfall drainage, storage and re-use systems was implemented in this study. Risk analysis of multipurpose storage capacities was generalized by the use of only a few dimensionless parameters and applied to a case study in a Mediterranean-type climate, although the applicability of the model is not restricted to any particular climatic type.

  13. Risk of Window Period HIV Infection in High Infectious Risk Donors: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kucirka, Lauren M.; Sarathy, Harini; Govindan, Priyanka; Wolf, Joshua H.; Ellison, Trevor A.; Hart, Leah J.; Montgomery, Robert A.; Ros, R. Lorie; Segev, Dorry L.

    2010-01-01

    The OPTN defines high risk donors (HRDs), colloquially known as “CDC high risk donors,” as those thought to carry an increased risk of HIV window period (WP) infection prior to serologic detectability. However, the true risk of such infection remains unknown. To quantify the risk of WP infection in each HRD behavior category, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of HIV prevalence and incidence. Of 3,476 abstracts reviewed, 27 eligible studies of HIV infection in HRD populations were identified. Pooled HIV incidence estimates were calculated for each category of HRD behavior and used to calculate the risk of WP HIV infection. Risks ranged from 0.09–12.1 per 10,000 donors based on WP for ELISA and 0.04–4.9 based on nucleic acid testing (NAT), with NAT reducing WP risk by over 50% in each category. Injection drug users had the greatest risk of WP infection (4.9 per 10,000 donors by NAT WP), followed by men who have sex with men (4.2:10,000), commercial sex workers (2.7:10,000), incarcerated donors (0.9:10,000), donors exposed to HIV through blood (0.6:10,000), donors engaging in high risk sex (0.3:10,000), and hemophiliacs (0.035:10,000). These estimates can help inform patient and provider decision-making regarding HRDs. PMID:21366859

  14. Precursor Analysis for Flight- and Ground-Based Anomaly Risk Significance Determination

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groen, Frank

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the precursor analysis for flight and ground based anomaly risk significance. It includes information on accident precursor analysis, real models vs. models, and probabilistic analysis.

  15. An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

    PubMed

    Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

    2011-07-01

    In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. PMID:21231949

  16. Imminent Cardiac Risk Assessment via Optical Intravascular Biochemical Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wetzel, D.; Wetzel, L; Wetzel, M; Lodder, R

    2009-01-01

    Heart disease is by far the biggest killer in the United States, and type II diabetes, which affects 8% of the U.S. population, is on the rise. In many cases, the acute coronary syndrome and/or sudden cardiac death occurs without warning. Atherosclerosis has known behavioral, genetic and dietary risk factors. However, our laboratory studies with animal models and human post-mortem tissue using FT-IR microspectroscopy reveal the chemical microstructure within arteries and in the arterial walls themselves. These include spectra obtained from the aortas of ApoE-/- knockout mice on sucrose and normal diets showing lipid deposition in the former case. Also pre-aneurysm chemical images of knockout mouse aorta walls, and spectra of plaque excised from a living human patient are shown for comparison. In keeping with the theme of the SPEC 2008 conference Spectroscopic Diagnosis of Disease this paper describes the background and potential value of a new catheter-based system to provide in vivo biochemical analysis of plaque in human coronary arteries. We report the following: (1) results of FT-IR microspectroscopy on animal models of vascular disease to illustrate the localized chemical distinctions between pathological and normal tissue, (2) current diagnostic techniques used for risk assessment of patients with potential unstable coronary syndromes, and (3) the advantages and limitations of each of these techniques illustrated with patent care histories, related in the first person, by the physician coauthors. Note that the physician comments clarify the contribution of each diagnostic technique to imminent cardiac risk assessment in a clinical setting, leading to the appreciation of what localized intravascular chemical analysis can contribute as an add-on diagnostic tool. The quality of medical imaging has improved dramatically since the turn of the century. Among clinical non-invasive diagnostic tools, laboratory tests of body fluids, EKG, and physical examination are

  17. Risk factors for temporomandibular disorder: Binary logistic regression analysis

    PubMed Central

    Magalhães, Bruno G.; de-Sousa, Stéphanie T.; de Mello, Victor V C.; da-Silva-Barbosa, André C.; de-Assis-Morais, Mariana P L.; Barbosa-Vasconcelos, Márcia M V.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To analyze the influence of socioeconomic and demographic factors (gender, economic class, age and marital status) on the occurrence of temporomandibular disorder. Study Design: One hundred individuals from urban areas in the city of Recife (Brazil) registered at Family Health Units was examined using Axis I of the Research Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders (RDC/TMD) which addresses myofascial pain and joint problems (disc displacement, arthralgia, osteoarthritis and oesteoarthrosis). The Brazilian Economic Classification Criteria (CCEB) was used for the collection of socioeconomic and demographic data. Then, it was categorized as Class A (high social class), Classes B/C (middle class) and Classes D/E (very poor social class). The results were analyzed using Pearson’s chi-square test for proportions, Fisher’s exact test, nonparametric Mann-Whitney test and Binary logistic regression analysis. Results: None of the participants belonged to Class A, 72% belonged to Classes B/C and 28% belonged to Classes D/E. The multivariate analysis revealed that participants from Classes D/E had a 4.35-fold greater chance of exhibiting myofascial pain and 11.3-fold greater chance of exhibiting joint problems. Conclusions: Poverty is a important condition to exhibit myofascial pain and joint problems. Key words:Temporomandibular joint disorders, risk factors, prevalence. PMID:24316706

  18. Model-based risk analysis of coupled process steps.

    PubMed

    Westerberg, Karin; Broberg-Hansen, Ernst; Sejergaard, Lars; Nilsson, Bernt

    2013-09-01

    A section of a biopharmaceutical manufacturing process involving the enzymatic coupling of a polymer to a therapeutic protein was characterized with regards to the process parameter sensitivity and design space. To minimize the formation of unwanted by-products in the enzymatic reaction, the substrate was added in small amounts and unreacted protein was separated using size-exclusion chromatography (SEC) and recycled to the reactor. The quality of the final recovered product was thus a result of the conditions in both the reactor and the SEC, and a design space had to be established for both processes together. This was achieved by developing mechanistic models of the reaction and SEC steps, establishing the causal links between process conditions and product quality. Model analysis was used to complement the qualitative risk assessment, and design space and critical process parameters were identified. The simulation results gave an experimental plan focusing on the "worst-case regions" in terms of product quality and yield. In this way, the experiments could be used to verify both the suggested process and the model results. This work demonstrates the necessary steps of model-assisted process analysis, from model development through experimental verification.

  19. Systemic Lupus Erythematous and Malignancy Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Gaixiang; Liu, Ping; Meng, Haitao; Wang, Jinghan; Zhao, Xiaoying; Tang, Yongmin; Jin, Jie

    2015-01-01

    Background Pilot studies have estimated cancer incidence in patients with systemic lupus erythematous (SLE). However, the results have been inconclusive. To ascertain the correlation between SLE and malignancy more comprehensively and precisely, we conducted a meta-analysis. Methods PubMed, the Cochrane Library and Embase databases through June 2014, were searched to identify observational studies evaluating the association between SLE and malignancy. The outcomes from these studies were measured as relative risks (RRs). A random or fixed effects model was chosen to calculate the pooled RR according to heterogeneity test. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed by estimating I2 index. Publication bias was assessed by Egger’s test. Results A total of 16 papers, including 59,662 SLE patients, were suitable for the meta-analysis. Of these papers, 15 reported RRs for overall malignancy, 12 for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and lung cancer, 7 for bladder cancer, 6 for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and leukemia, 5 for skin melanoma, and liver and thyroid cancers, 4 for multiple myeloma (MM), and esophageal and vaginal/vulvar cancers and 3 for laryngeal and non-melanoma skin cancers. The pooled RRs were 1.28 (95% CI, 1.17–1.41) for overall cancer, 5.40 (95% CI, 3.75–7.77) for NHL, 3.26(95% CI, 2.17–4.88) for HL, 2.01(95% CI, 1.61–2.52) for leukemia, 1.45(95% CI, 1.04–2.03) for MM, 4.19(95% CI, 1.98–8.87) for laryngeal cancer, 1.59 (95% CI, 1.44–1.76) for lung cancer, 1.86(95% CI, 1.21–2.88) for esophageal cancer, 3.21(95% CI, 1.70–6.05) for liver cancer, 3.67(95% CI, 2.80–4.81) for vaginal/vulvar cancer, 2.11(95% CI, 1.12–3.99) for bladder cancer, 1.51(95% CI, 1.12–2.03) for non-melanoma skin cancer, 1.78(95% CI, 1.35–2.33) for thyroid cancer, and 0.65(95% CI, 0.50–0.85) for skin melanoma. Only the meta-analyses of overall malignancy, NHL, and liver and bladder cancers produced substantial heterogeneity (I2, 57.6% vs 74.3% vs 67.7% vs 82.3%). No

  20. INDICATORS OF RISK: AN ANALYSIS APPROACH FOR IMPROVED RIVER MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A risk index is an approach to measuring the level of risk to the plants and/or animals (biota) in a certain area using water and habitat quality information. A new technique for developing risk indices was applied to data collected from Mid-Atlantic streams of the U.S. during 1...

  1. Alcohol drinking and multiple myeloma risk--a systematic review and meta-analysis of the dose-risk relationship.

    PubMed

    Rota, Matteo; Porta, Lorenzo; Pelucchi, Claudio; Negri, Eva; Bagnardi, Vincenzo; Bellocco, Rino; Corrao, Giovanni; Boffetta, Paolo; La Vecchia, Carlo

    2014-03-01

    The role of alcohol intake in the risk for multiple myeloma (MM) is unclear, although some recent findings suggest an inverse relationship. To summarize the information on the topic, we carried out a systematic review and a dose-risk meta-analysis of published data. Through the literature search until August 2013, we identified 18 studies, eight case-control and 10 cohort studies, carried out in a total of 5694 MM patients. We derived pooled meta-analytic estimates using random-effects models, taking into account the correlation between estimates, and we carried out a dose-risk analysis using a class of nonlinear random-effects meta-regression models. The relative risk for alcohol drinkers versus non/occasional drinkers was 0.97 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.85-1.10] overall, 0.96 (95% CI, 0.74-1.24) among case-control studies, and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.89-1.13) among cohort studies. Compared with nondrinkers, the pooled relative risks were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.81-1.13) for light (i.e. ≤ 1 drink/day) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.74-1.07) for moderate-to-heavy (i.e. >1 drink/day) alcohol drinkers. The dose-risk analysis revealed a model-based MM risk reduction of about 15% at two to four drinks/day (i.e. 25-50 g of ethanol). The present meta-analysis of published data found no strong association between alcohol drinking and MM risk, although a modest favorable effect emerged for moderate-to-heavy alcohol drinkers.

  2. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  3. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory.

  4. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory. PMID:25828551

  5. Analysis of dysphagia risk using the modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly

    PubMed Central

    Byeon, Haewon

    2016-01-01

    [Purpose] The elderly are susceptible to dysphagia, and complications can be minimized if high-risk groups are screened in early stages and properly rehabilitated. This study provides basic material for the early detection and prevention of dysphagia by investigating the risks of dysphagia and related factors in community-dwelling elders. [Subjects and Methods] Participants included 325 community-dwelling elderly people aged 65 or older. The modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly was used to assess dysphagia risk. [Results] Approximately 52.6% (n=171) of participants belonged to the high-risk group for dysphagia. After adjusting for confounding variables, people aged 75+, who used dentures, and who needed partial help in daily living had a significantly higher risk of dysphagia. [Conclusion] It is necessary to develop guidelines for dysphagia for early detection and rehabilitation. PMID:27799680

  6. The RiskScape System - a tool for quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, J.; Reese, S.; Matcham, I.; King, A.; Bell, R.

    2009-04-01

    This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape' at the Research Organization GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from multiple natural hazards and for multiple risk elements. The framework is independent on the specific nature of the individual hazard and individual risk element. A software prototype has been developed which is capable of ‘plugging in' various natural hazards and risk elements without reconfiguring / adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that goal we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (risk elements), and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to understand any hazard, asset, or fragility model which is provided to the system according to that standard. We tested the software prototype for modelling earthquake, volcanic, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for urban centres in New Zealand.

  7. [Risk communication in analysis of occupational health risk for industrial workers].

    PubMed

    Barg, A O; Lebedeva-Nesevrya, N A

    2015-01-01

    The article covers problems of risk communication system function on industrial enterprise. Sociologic study in machinery construction enterprise of Perm area helped to consider main procedures of informing on occupational risk for health of workers exposed to occupational hazards, to describe features and mechanisms of risk communication, to specify its model. The authors proved that main obstacles for efficient system of occupational risks communication are insufficiently thorough legal basis, low corporative social responsibility of the enterprise and low social value of health for workers. This article was prepared with the support of the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation (Project No. 14-16-59011). PMID:26596113

  8. Graduate Education in Risk Analysis for Food, Agriculture, and Veterinary Medicine: Challenges and Opportunities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Correia, Ana-Paula; Wolt, Jeffrey D.

    2010-01-01

    The notion of risk in relation to food and food production has heightened the need to educate students to effectively deal with risk in relation to decision making from a science-based perspective. Curricula and related materials were developed and adopted to support graduate learning opportunities in risk analysis and decision making as applied…

  9. A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

    2005-01-01

    Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

  10. Elusive Critical Elements of Transformative Risk Assessment Practice and Interpretation: Is Alternatives Analysis the Next Step?

    PubMed

    Francis, Royce A

    2015-11-01

    This article argues that "game-changing" approaches to risk analysis must focus on "democratizing" risk analysis in the same way that information technologies have democratized access to, and production of, knowledge. This argument is motivated by the author's reading of Goble and Bier's analysis, "Risk Assessment Can Be a Game-Changing Information Technology-But Too Often It Isn't" (Risk Analysis, 2013; 33: 1942-1951), in which living risk assessments are shown to be "game changing" in probabilistic risk analysis. In this author's opinion, Goble and Bier's article focuses on living risk assessment's potential for transforming risk analysis from the perspective of risk professionals-yet, the game-changing nature of information technologies has typically achieved a much broader reach. Specifically, information technologies change who has access to, and who can produce, information. From this perspective, the author argues that risk assessment is not a game-changing technology in the same way as the printing press or the Internet because transformative information technologies reduce the cost of production of, and access to, privileged knowledge bases. The author argues that risk analysis does not reduce these costs. The author applies Goble and Bier's metaphor to the chemical risk analysis context, and in doing so proposes key features that transformative risk analysis technology should possess. The author also discusses the challenges and opportunities facing risk analysis in this context. These key features include: clarity in information structure and problem representation, economical information dissemination, increased transparency to nonspecialists, democratized manufacture and transmission of knowledge, and democratic ownership, control, and interpretation of knowledge. The chemical safety decision-making context illustrates the impact of changing the way information is produced and accessed in the risk context. Ultimately, the author concludes that although

  11. Advanced probabilistic risk analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-7

    SciTech Connect

    Rabiti, Cristian; Alfonsi, Andrea; Mandelli, Diego; Cogliati, Joshua; Kinoshita, Robert

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN, under the support of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program [1], is advancing its capability to perform statistical analyses of stochastic dynamic systems. This is aligned with its mission to provide the tools needed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) path-lead [2] under the Department Of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability program [3]. In particular this task is focused on the synergetic development with the RELAP-7 [4] code to advance the state of the art on the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (NPP). The investigation of the probabilistic evolution of accident scenarios for a complex system such as a nuclear power plant is not a trivial challenge. The complexity of the system to be modeled leads to demanding computational requirements even to simulate one of the many possible evolutions of an accident scenario (tens of CPU/hour). At the same time, the probabilistic analysis requires thousands of runs to investigate outcomes characterized by low probability and severe consequence (tail problem). The milestone reported in June of 2013 [5] described the capability of RAVEN to implement complex control logic and provide an adequate support for the exploration of the probabilistic space using a Monte Carlo sampling strategy. Unfortunately the Monte Carlo approach is ineffective with a problem of this complexity. In the following year of development, the RAVEN code has been extended with more sophisticated sampling strategies (grids, Latin Hypercube, and adaptive sampling). This milestone report illustrates the effectiveness of those methodologies in performing the assessment of the probability of core damage following the onset of a Station Black Out (SBO) situation in a boiling water reactor (BWR). The first part of the report provides an overview of the available probabilistic analysis capabilities, ranging from the different types of distributions available, possible sampling

  12. Analysis to support allergen risk management: Which way to go?

    PubMed

    Cucu, Tatiana; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2013-06-19

    Food allergy represents an important food safety issue because of the potential lethal effects; the only effective treatment is the complete removal of the allergen involved from the diet. However, due to the growing complexity of food formulations and food processing, foods may be unintentionally contaminated via allergen-containing ingredients or cross-contamination. This affects not only consumers' well-being but also food producers and competent authorities involved in inspecting and auditing food companies. To address these issues, the food industry and control agencies rely on available analytical methods to quantify the amount of a particular allergic commodity in a food and thus to decide upon its safety. However, no "gold standard methods" exist for the quantitative detection of food allergens. Nowadays mostly receptor-based methods and in particular commercial kits are used in routine analysis. However, upon evaluation of their performances, commercial assays proved often to be unreliable in processed foods, attributed to the chemical changes in proteins that affect the molecular recognition with the receptor used. Unfortunately, the analytical outcome of other methods, among which are chromatographic combined with mass spectrometric techniques as well as DNA-based methods, seem to be affected in a comparable way by food processing. Several strategies can be employed to improve the quantitative analysis of allergens in foods. Nevertheless, issues related to extractability and matrix effects remain a permanent challenge. In view of the presented results, it is clear that the food industry needs to continue to make extra efforts to provide accurate labeling and to reduce the contamination with allergens to an acceptable level through the use of allergen risk management on a company level, which needs to be supported inevitably by a tailor-validated extraction and detection method.

  13. Reliability and risk analysis using artificial neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Robinson, D.G.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses preliminary research at Sandia National Laboratories into the application of artificial neural networks for reliability and risk analysis. The goal of this effort is to develop a reliability based methodology that captures the complex relationship between uncertainty in material properties and manufacturing processes and the resulting uncertainty in life prediction estimates. The inputs to the neural network model are probability density functions describing system characteristics and the output is a statistical description of system performance. The most recent application of this methodology involves the comparison of various low-residue, lead-free soldering processes with the desire to minimize the associated waste streams with no reduction in product reliability. Model inputs include statistical descriptions of various material properties such as the coefficients of thermal expansion of solder and substrate. Consideration is also given to stochastic variation in the operational environment to which the electronic components might be exposed. Model output includes a probabilistic characterization of the fatigue life of the surface mounted component.

  14. Risk analysis of tyramine concentration in food production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doudová, L.; Buňka, F.; Michálek, J.; Sedlačík, M.; Buňková, L.

    2013-10-01

    The contribution is focused on risk analysis in food microbiology. This paper evaluates the effect of selected factors on tyramine production in bacterial strains of Lactococcus genus which were assigned as tyramine producers. Tyramine is a biogenic amine sythesized from an amino acid called tyrosine. It can be found in certain foodstuffs (often in cheese), and can cause a pseudo-response in sensitive individuals. The above-mentioned bacteria are commonly used in the biotechnological process of cheese production as starter cultures. The levels of factors were chosen with respect to the conditions which can occur in this technological process. To describe and compare tyramine production in chosen microorganisms, generalized regression models were applied. Tyramine production was modelled by Gompertz curves according to the selected factors (the lactose concentration of 0-1% w/v, NaCl 0-2% w/v and aero/anaerobiosis) for 3 different types of bacterial cultivation. Moreover, estimates of model parameters were calculated and tested; multiple comparisons were discussed as well. The aim of this paper is to find a combination of factors leading to a similar tyramine production level.

  15. Independent Replication and Meta-Analysis for Endometriosis Risk Loci.

    PubMed

    Sapkota, Yadav; Fassbender, Amelie; Bowdler, Lisa; Fung, Jenny N; Peterse, Daniëlle; O, Dorien; Montgomery, Grant W; Nyholt, Dale R; D'Hooghe, Thomas M

    2015-10-01

    Endometriosis is a complex disease that affects 6-10% of women in their reproductive years and 20-50% of women with infertility. Genome-wide and candidate-gene association studies for endometriosis have identified 10 independent risk loci, and of these, nine (rs7521902, rs13394619, rs4141819, rs6542095, rs1519761, rs7739264, rs12700667, rs1537377, and rs10859871) are polymorphic in European populations. Here we investigate the replication of nine SNP loci in 998 laparoscopically and histologically confirmed endometriosis cases and 783 disease-free controls from Belgium. SNPs rs7521902, rs13394619, and rs6542095 show nominally significant (p < .05) associations with endometriosis, while the directions of effect for seven SNPs are consistent with the original reports. Association of rs6542095 at the IL1A locus with 'All' (p = .066) and 'Grade_B' (p = .01) endometriosis is noteworthy because this is the first successful replication in an independent population. Meta-analysis with the published results yields genome-wide significant evidence for rs7521902, rs13394619, rs6542095, rs12700667, rs7739264, and rs1537377. Notably, three coding variants in GREB1 (near rs13394619) and CDKN2B-AS1 (near rs1537377) also showed nominally significant associations with endometriosis. Overall, this study provides important replication in a uniquely characterized independent population, and indicates that the majority of the original genome-wide association findings are not due to chance alone.

  16. Framework for risk analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES)

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, G.; Buck, J.W.; Castleton, K.J.; Hoopes, B.L.; Pelton, M.A.; McDonald, J.P.; Gelston, G.M.; Taira, R.Y.

    1998-05-01

    The objectives of this workshop are to (1) provide the NRC staff and the public with an overview of currently available Federally-Sponsored dose models appropriate for decommissioning assessments and (2) discuss NRC staff-developed questions related to model selection criteria with the final rule on ``Radiological Criteria for License Termination`` (62 FR 39058). For over 40 years, medium specific models have been and will continue to be developed in an effort to understand and predict environmental phenomena, including fluid-flow patterns, contaminant migration and fate, human or wildlife exposures, impacts from specific toxicants to specific species and their organs, cost-benefit analyses, impacts from remediation alternatives, etc. For nearly 40 years, medium-specific models have been combined for either sequential or concurrent assessments. The evolution of multiple-media assessment tools has followed a logic progression. To allow a suite of users the flexibility and versatility to construct, combine, and couple attributes that meet their specific needs without unnecessarily burdening the user with extraneous capabilities, the development of a computer-based methodology to implement a Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) was begun in 1994. FRAMES represents a platform which links elements together and yet does not represent the models that are linked to or within it; therefore, changes to elements that are linked to or within FRAMES do not change the framework.

  17. 3M corporate incinerator environmental monitoring study and risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Stevens, J.B.; Elnabarawy, M.T.; Pilney, J.

    1998-12-31

    A one-year multi-media environmental monitoring study was performed around the 3M Cottage Grove Facility. Particulate metals from the 3M Corporate hazardous waste incinerator were the focus of the study. Two environmental media were of primary interest: area soil sampling was conducted to investigate the impact of past incinerator emissions on the environment, and ambient air monitoring was conducted to address current impacts. Over 180 soil samples were taken from both agricultural and forested land in the vicinity of the Facility. More than 25 chemical parameters were then quantified in the samples. The potential impacts of past emissions from the incinerator were assessed by comparing chemical concentrations from locations where incinerator impacts were expected to be greatest (based on air dispersion modeling) to chemical concentrations in matched samples from sites expected to be least impacted. The ambient air monitoring network consisted of six stations. Source-receptor modeling was used to determine the most likely contribution of the incinerator and six additional major area sources for the air monitoring (i.e. filter) data at each station. The model provided a best-fit analysis regarding the likely contributions of each source to the sample results. The results of these evaluations lead to the conclusion that the current emissions from this Facility do not present an unacceptable risk to human health.

  18. Towards internationally acceptable standards for food additives and contaminants based on the use of risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Huggett, A; Petersen, B J; Walker, R; Fisher, C E; Notermans, S H; Rombouts, F M; Abbott, P; Debackere, M; Hathaway, S C; Hecker, E F; Knaap, A G; Kuznesof, P M; Meyland, I; Moy, G; Narbonne, J F; Paakkanen, J; Smith, M R; Tennant, D; Wagstaffe, P; Wargo, J; Würtzen, G

    1998-06-01

    Internationally acceptable norms need to incorporate sound science and consistent risk management principles in an open and transparent manner, as set out in the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the SPS Agreement). The process of risk analysis provides a procedure to reach these goals. The interaction between risk assessors and risk managers is considered vital to this procedure. This paper reports the outcome of a meeting of risk assessors and risk managers on specific aspects of risk analysis and its application to international standard setting for food additives and contaminants. Case studies on aflatoxins and aspartame were used to identify the key steps of the interaction process which ensure scientific justification for risk management decisions. A series of recommendations were proposed in order to enhance the scientific transparency in these critical phases of the standard setting procedure.

  19. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  20. Risk.

    PubMed

    Cole, Stephen R; Hudgens, Michael G; Brookhart, M Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-02-15

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  1. Evaluation of the SPAR thermal analyzer on the CYBER-203 computer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, J. C.; Riley, K. M.; Haftka, R. T.

    1982-01-01

    The use of the CYBER 203 vector computer for thermal analysis is investigated. Strengths of the CYBER 203 include the ability to perform, in vector mode using a 64 bit word, 50 million floating point operations per second (MFLOPS) for addition and subtraction, 25 MFLOPS for multiplication and 12.5 MFLOPS for division. The speed of scalar operation is comparable to that of a CDC 7600 and is some 2 to 3 times faster than Langley's CYBER 175s. The CYBER 203 has 1,048,576 64-bit words of real memory with an 80 nanosecond (nsec) access time. Memory is bit addressable and provides single error correction, double error detection (SECDED) capability. The virtual memory capability handles data in either 512 or 65,536 word pages. The machine has 256 registers with a 40 nsec access time. The weaknesses of the CYBER 203 include the amount of vector operation overhead and some data storage limitations. In vector operations there is a considerable amount of time before a single result is produced so that vector calculation speed is slower than scalar operation for short vectors.

  2. Soy consumption and colorectal cancer risk in humans: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Yan, Lin; Spitznagel, Edward L; Bosland, Maarten C

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to determine the relationship between soy consumption and colorectal cancer risk in humans by conducting a meta-analysis of available epidemiologic studies. We systematically reviewed publications obtained through a Medline literature search and identified four cohort and seven case-control studies on soy and colorectal cancer risk that met the inclusion criteria. We extracted the risk estimate (hazard ratio, relative risk, or odds ratio) of the highest and the lowest reported categories of intake from each study and conducted this analysis using a random-effects model. Our analysis did not find that soy consumption was associated with colorectal cancer risk [combined risk estimate, 0.90; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.79-1.03] nor did the separate analyses on colon cancer (combined risk estimate, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.74-1.06) and rectal cancer (combined risk estimate, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.67-1.14). However, when separately analyzed on the basis of gender, we found that soy was associated with an approximately 21% reduction in colorectal cancer risk in women (combined risk estimate, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.65-0.97; P = 0.026), but not in men (combined risk estimate, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.90-1.33). Thus, consumption of soy foods may be associated with a reduction in colorectal cancer risk in women, but not in men.

  3. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-12-31

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risk from postulated options or endstates. Comparative Risk Analysis is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remedial options or future endstates. It addresses the cumulative risks imposed by the Rocky Flats Plant and provides risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures. Currently, there is no approved methodology that aggregates various risk estimates. Along with academic and field expert review, the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology is being reviewed and refined. A Rocky Flats Plant Risk Assessment Focus Group was established. Stakeholder involvement in the development provides an opportunity to influence the information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the methodology.

  4. Meta-analysis of studies using statins as a reducer for primary liver cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Zhong, Guo-Chao; Liu, Yan; Ye, Yuan-Yuan; Hao, Fa-Bao; Wang, Kang; Gong, Jian-Ping

    2016-01-01

    A protective effect of statins on primary liver cancer (PLC) risk has been suggested. However, issues about the dose–response relationship, the protective effect of individual statins, and PLC risk reduction among at-risk populations remain unsolved. Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for studies providing the risk ratio (RR) on statins and PLC risk. Summary RRs were calculated using a random-effects model. Twenty-five studies were identified. Stain use was significantly associated with a reduced risk of PLC (RR = 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.53–0.69). The summary RR for every additional 50 cumulative defined daily doses per year was 0.87 (95% CI = 0.83–0.91). Evidence of a non-linear dose–response relationship between statins and PLC risk was found (Pnon-linearity < 0.01). All individual statins significantly reduced PLC risk, and the risk reduction was more evident with rosuvastatin. The inverse association between statins and PLC risk remained among populations with common risk factors. Subgroup analyses revealed more significant reduction in PLC risk by statins in high- versus non-high-risk populations (Pinteraction = 0.02). Overall, these findings add to our understanding of the association between statins and PLC risk. Whether statin use is causally associated with a reduced risk of PLC should be further studied. PMID:27198922

  5. Empirical analysis of farmers' drought risk perception: objective factors, personal circumstances, and social influence.

    PubMed

    Duinen, Rianne van; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Peter; Veen, Anne van der

    2015-04-01

    Drought-induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on farmers' drought risk perceptions. Understanding the formation of farmers' drought risk perceptions is a prerequisite to designing effective and efficient public drought risk management strategies. Various strands of literature point at different factors shaping individual risk perceptions. Economic theory points at objective risk variables, whereas psychology and sociology identify subjective risk variables. This study investigates and compares the contribution of objective and subjective factors in explaining farmers' drought risk perception by means of survey data analysis. Data on risk perceptions, farm characteristics, and various other personality traits were collected from farmers located in the southwest Netherlands. From comparing the explanatory power of objective and subjective risk factors in separate models and a full model of risk perception, it can be concluded that farmers' risk perceptions are shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In a full risk perception model, being located in an area with external water supply, owning fields with salinization issues, cultivating drought-/salt-sensitive crops, farm revenue, drought risk experience, and perceived control are significant explanatory variables of farmers' drought risk perceptions. PMID:25514996

  6. An Improved Gaussian Mixture Model for Damage Propagation Monitoring of an Aircraft Wing Spar under Changing Structural Boundary Conditions.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Fang, Fang

    2016-02-26

    Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) technology is considered to be a key technology to reduce the maintenance cost and meanwhile ensure the operational safety of aircraft structures. It has gradually developed from theoretic and fundamental research to real-world engineering applications in recent decades. The problem of reliable damage monitoring under time-varying conditions is a main issue for the aerospace engineering applications of SHM technology. Among the existing SHM methods, Guided Wave (GW) and piezoelectric sensor-based SHM technique is a promising method due to its high damage sensitivity and long monitoring range. Nevertheless the reliability problem should be addressed. Several methods including environmental parameter compensation, baseline signal dependency reduction and data normalization, have been well studied but limitations remain. This paper proposes a damage propagation monitoring method based on an improved Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). It can be used on-line without any structural mechanical model and a priori knowledge of damage and time-varying conditions. With this method, a baseline GMM is constructed first based on the GW features obtained under time-varying conditions when the structure under monitoring is in the healthy state. When a new GW feature is obtained during the on-line damage monitoring process, the GMM can be updated by an adaptive migration mechanism including dynamic learning and Gaussian components split-merge. The mixture probability distribution structure of the GMM and the number of Gaussian components can be optimized adaptively. Then an on-line GMM can be obtained. Finally, a best match based Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is studied to measure the migration degree between the baseline GMM and the on-line GMM to reveal the weak cumulative changes of the damage propagation mixed in the time-varying influence. A wing spar of an aircraft is used to validate the proposed method. The results indicate that the crack

  7. An Improved Gaussian Mixture Model for Damage Propagation Monitoring of an Aircraft Wing Spar under Changing Structural Boundary Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Fang, Fang

    2016-01-01

    Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) technology is considered to be a key technology to reduce the maintenance cost and meanwhile ensure the operational safety of aircraft structures. It has gradually developed from theoretic and fundamental research to real-world engineering applications in recent decades. The problem of reliable damage monitoring under time-varying conditions is a main issue for the aerospace engineering applications of SHM technology. Among the existing SHM methods, Guided Wave (GW) and piezoelectric sensor-based SHM technique is a promising method due to its high damage sensitivity and long monitoring range. Nevertheless the reliability problem should be addressed. Several methods including environmental parameter compensation, baseline signal dependency reduction and data normalization, have been well studied but limitations remain. This paper proposes a damage propagation monitoring method based on an improved Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). It can be used on-line without any structural mechanical model and a priori knowledge of damage and time-varying conditions. With this method, a baseline GMM is constructed first based on the GW features obtained under time-varying conditions when the structure under monitoring is in the healthy state. When a new GW feature is obtained during the on-line damage monitoring process, the GMM can be updated by an adaptive migration mechanism including dynamic learning and Gaussian components split-merge. The mixture probability distribution structure of the GMM and the number of Gaussian components can be optimized adaptively. Then an on-line GMM can be obtained. Finally, a best match based Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is studied to measure the migration degree between the baseline GMM and the on-line GMM to reveal the weak cumulative changes of the damage propagation mixed in the time-varying influence. A wing spar of an aircraft is used to validate the proposed method. The results indicate that the crack

  8. An Improved Gaussian Mixture Model for Damage Propagation Monitoring of an Aircraft Wing Spar under Changing Structural Boundary Conditions.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Fang, Fang

    2016-01-01

    Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) technology is considered to be a key technology to reduce the maintenance cost and meanwhile ensure the operational safety of aircraft structures. It has gradually developed from theoretic and fundamental research to real-world engineering applications in recent decades. The problem of reliable damage monitoring under time-varying conditions is a main issue for the aerospace engineering applications of SHM technology. Among the existing SHM methods, Guided Wave (GW) and piezoelectric sensor-based SHM technique is a promising method due to its high damage sensitivity and long monitoring range. Nevertheless the reliability problem should be addressed. Several methods including environmental parameter compensation, baseline signal dependency reduction and data normalization, have been well studied but limitations remain. This paper proposes a damage propagation monitoring method based on an improved Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). It can be used on-line without any structural mechanical model and a priori knowledge of damage and time-varying conditions. With this method, a baseline GMM is constructed first based on the GW features obtained under time-varying conditions when the structure under monitoring is in the healthy state. When a new GW feature is obtained during the on-line damage monitoring process, the GMM can be updated by an adaptive migration mechanism including dynamic learning and Gaussian components split-merge. The mixture probability distribution structure of the GMM and the number of Gaussian components can be optimized adaptively. Then an on-line GMM can be obtained. Finally, a best match based Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is studied to measure the migration degree between the baseline GMM and the on-line GMM to reveal the weak cumulative changes of the damage propagation mixed in the time-varying influence. A wing spar of an aircraft is used to validate the proposed method. The results indicate that the crack

  9. Analysis of the individual risk of altitude decompression sickness under repeated exposures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kumar, K. Vasantha; Horrigan, David J.; Waligora, James M.; Gilbert, John H.

    1991-01-01

    In a case-control study, researchers examined the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in individual subjects with higher number of exposures. Of the 126 subjects, 42 showed one or more episodes of DCS. Examination of the exposure-DCS relationship by odds ratio showed a linear relationship. Stratification analysis showed that sex, tissue ratio, and the presence of Doppler microbubbles were cofounders of this risk. A higher number of exposures increased the risk of DCS in this analysis.

  10. [Risk factors of ischemic heart disease in various occupational groups. II. Complex analysis of risk factors].

    PubMed

    Gałuszka, Z; Kolarzyk, E; Stepniewski, M; Salwińska-Ciećkiewicz, B; Szpak, D

    1991-01-01

    Four hundred four men aged 30 to 59 years, belonging to one of 4 occupational groups were investigated in a standard clinical conditions. Two from those groups were characteristic for steel mill professions: 121 blast furnace workers; exerting strenuous physical effort and working in hot microclimate. 131 operators (the second group) performed work in comfort microclimate conditions not demanding much effort. The third group comprised 73 executives of industry. The fourth group consisted of 79 monks. For all subjects of investigations 8 selected risk factors of ischemic heart disease were evaluated. They included: age, sex, family history, habit of smoking, systolic blood pressure, fasting blood cholesterol level, obesity index and professional physical activity. The level of each risk factor had numerical value in a span from "0" to "8". The sum of all points was decisive to which of 3 groups of risk given man should be accounted. Those 3 groups were arbitrary divided into "low, intermediate and high risk". The highest risk was found for the executives group, and the lowest for blast furnace workers. From the risk factors under investigation highest overall influence on incidence of ischemic heart disease had habit of smoking and obesity. Described here point classification system seems to be very simple and useful for estimation of risk of ischemic heart disease in a given population. PMID:1845321

  11. NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen

    2008-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.

  12. Risky Business: An Analysis of Teacher Risk Preferences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowen, Daniel H.; Buck, Stuart; Deck, Cary; Mills, Jonathan N.; Shuls, James V.

    2015-01-01

    A range of proposals aim to reform teacher compensation, recruitment, and retention. Teachers have generally not embraced these policies. One potential explanation for their objections is that teachers are relatively risk averse. We examine this hypothesis using a risk-elicitation task common to experimental economics. By comparing preferences of…

  13. Analysis of Risk Management in Adapted Physical Education Textbooks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Kelle L.; Donovan, Jacqueline B.; Berg, Dominck A.

    2016-01-01

    Physical education teacher education (PETE) programs vary on how the topics of safe teaching and risk management are addressed. Common practices to cover such issues include requiring textbooks, lesson planning, peer teaching, videotaping, reflecting, and reading case law analyses. We used a mixed methods design to examine how risk management is…

  14. Analysis of dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Su, Boni; Zhao, Jinlong

    2015-07-01

    Knowing the dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation and having an efficient evacuation plan play a very important role in the serious disasters such as earthquake, tsunami and hurricane. In this paper, the dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation in a densely populated area of Beijing was studied with consideration of different influencing factors. Firstly, the eight influencing factors including road width, node degree, safety betweenness, road resistor coefficient, building threat, pedestrian counterflow, illegal vehicle parking and traffic flow were considered to assess the road risk for pedestrian evacuation. Secondly, based on complex network theory, electric circuit theory and real situation of the roads, the comprehensive assessment function for road risk was developed quantitatively based on the eight influencing factors. Thirdly, we analyzed road risk for pedestrian evacuation considering different situations: current condition, regular condition, and optimal condition; the risk distribution maps were drawn to directly show the risk level. Through assessments, the roads with high risk for pedestrian evacuation were found, and an optimized evacuation plan was obtained and analyzed. This mathematical model can guide the emergency evacuation in real time. The process and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of evacuations which should considerably reduce the possibility of injuries, deaths and other losses in the disaster.

  15. The Importance of At-Risk Funding. Policy Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Emily; Griffith, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, states and districts have moved toward making education more equitable. A key component of equity in education is providing additional funds for economically disadvantaged students, commonly referred to as "at-risk students." At-risk students are most often defined as students who qualify for free or reduced priced…

  16. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    SciTech Connect

    Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

    2003-10-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  17. Analysis of Risk Compensation Behavior on Night Vision Enhancement System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiraoka, Toshihiro; Masui, Junya; Nishikawa, Seimei

    Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) such as a forward obstacle collision warning system (FOCWS) and a night vision enhancement system (NVES) aim to decrease driver's mental workload and enhance vehicle safety by provision of useful information to support driver's perception process and judgment process. On the other hand, the risk homeostasis theory (RHT) cautions that an enhanced safety and a reduced risk would cause a risk compensation behavior such as increasing the vehicle velocity. Therefore, the present paper performed the driving simulator experiments to discuss dependence on the NVES and emergence of the risk compensation behavior. Moreover, we verified the side-effects of spontaneous behavioral adaptation derived from the presentation of the fuel-consumption meter on the risk compensation behavior.

  18. Comparative risk analysis of technological hazards (a review).

    PubMed Central

    Kates, R W; Kasperson, J X

    1983-01-01

    Hazards are threats to people and what they value and risks are measures of hazards. Comparative analyses of the risks and hazards of technology can be dated to Starr's 1969 paper [Starr, C. (1969) Science 165, 1232-1238] but are rooted in recent trends in the evolution of technology, the identification of hazard, the perception of risk, and the activities of society. These trends have spawned an interdisciplinary quasi profession with new terminology, methodology, and literature. A review of 54 English-language monographs and book-length collections, published between 1970 and 1983, identified seven recurring themes: (i) overviews of the field of risk assessment, (ii) efforts to estimate and quantify risk, (iii) discussions of risk acceptability, (iv) perception, (v) analyses of regulation, (vi) case studies of specific technological hazards, and (vii) agenda for research. Within this field, science occupies a unique niche, for many technological hazards transcend the realm of ordinary experience and require expert study. Scientists can make unique contributions to each area of hazard management but their primary contribution is the practice of basic science. Beyond that, science needs to further risk assessment by understanding the more subtle processes of hazard creation and by establishing conventions for estimating risk and for presenting and handling uncertainty. Scientists can enlighten the discussion of tolerable risk by setting risks into comparative contexts, by studying the process of evaluation, and by participating as knowledgeable individuals, but they cannot decide the issue. Science can inform the hazard management process by broadening the range of alternative control actions and modes of implementation and by devising methods to evaluate their effectiveness. PMID:6580625

  19. In silico analysis of nanomaterials hazard and risk.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Yoram; Rallo, Robert; Liu, Rong; Liu, Haoyang Haven

    2013-03-19

    false positive relative to false negative predictions and the reliability of toxicity data. To establish the environmental impact of ENMs identified as toxic, researchers will need to estimate the potential level of environmental exposure concentration of ENMs in the various media such as air, water, soil, and vegetation. When environmental monitoring data are not available, models of ENMs fate and transport (at various levels of complexity) serve as alternative approaches for estimating exposure concentrations. Risk management decisions regarding the manufacturing, use, and environmental regulations of ENMs would clearly benefit from both the assessment of potential ENMs exposure concentrations and suitable toxicity metrics. The decision process should consider the totality of available information: quantitative and qualitative data and the analysis of nanomaterials toxicity, and fate and transport behavior in the environment. Effective decision-making to address the potential impacts of nanomaterials will require considerations of the relevant environmental, ecological, technological, economic, and sociopolitical factors affecting the complete lifecycle of nanomaterials, while accounting for data and modeling uncertainties. Accordingly, researchers will need to establish standardized data management and analysis tools through nanoinformatics as a basis for the development of rational decision tools.

  20. Terrorism risks and cost-benefit analysis of aviation security.

    PubMed

    Stewart, Mark G; Mueller, John

    2013-05-01

    We evaluate, for the U.S. case, the costs and benefits of three security measures designed to reduce the likelihood of a direct replication of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To do so, we assess risk reduction, losses, and security costs in the context of the full set of security layers. The three measures evaluated are installed physical secondary barriers (IPSB) to restrict access to the hardened cockpit door during door transitions, the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) Program. In the process, we examine an alternate policy measure: doubling the budget of the FFDO program to $44 million per year, installing IPSBs in all U.S. aircraft at a cost of $13.5 million per year, and reducing funding for FAMS by 75% to $300 million per year. A break-even cost-benefit analysis then finds the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack required for the benefit of each security measures to equal its cost. We find that the IPSB is costeffective if the annual attack probability of an otherwise successful attack exceeds 0.5% or one attack every 200 years. The FFDO program is costeffective if the annual attack probability exceeds 2%. On the other hand, more than two otherwise successful attacks per year are required for FAMS to be costeffective. A policy that includes IPSBs, an increased budget for FFDOs, and a reduced budget for FAMS may be a viable policy alternative, potentially saving hundreds of millions of dollars per year with consequences for security that are, at most, negligible.

  1. Terrorism risks and cost-benefit analysis of aviation security.

    PubMed

    Stewart, Mark G; Mueller, John

    2013-05-01

    We evaluate, for the U.S. case, the costs and benefits of three security measures designed to reduce the likelihood of a direct replication of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To do so, we assess risk reduction, losses, and security costs in the context of the full set of security layers. The three measures evaluated are installed physical secondary barriers (IPSB) to restrict access to the hardened cockpit door during door transitions, the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) Program. In the process, we examine an alternate policy measure: doubling the budget of the FFDO program to $44 million per year, installing IPSBs in all U.S. aircraft at a cost of $13.5 million per year, and reducing funding for FAMS by 75% to $300 million per year. A break-even cost-benefit analysis then finds the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack required for the benefit of each security measures to equal its cost. We find that the IPSB is costeffective if the annual attack probability of an otherwise successful attack exceeds 0.5% or one attack every 200 years. The FFDO program is costeffective if the annual attack probability exceeds 2%. On the other hand, more than two otherwise successful attacks per year are required for FAMS to be costeffective. A policy that includes IPSBs, an increased budget for FFDOs, and a reduced budget for FAMS may be a viable policy alternative, potentially saving hundreds of millions of dollars per year with consequences for security that are, at most, negligible. PMID:23035984

  2. CFD analysis of dense gas dispersion in indoor environment for risk assessment and risk mitigation.

    PubMed

    Siddiqui, M; Jayanti, S; Swaminathan, T

    2012-03-30

    Environmental risks are inherent in the operation of any complex chemical process industry. The indoor release of hazardous chemicals that are denser than air is a topic of special concern, since dense clouds tend to persist at ground level or human breath level which leads to a magnification of their harmful potential. In the present work, we propose a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based model for indoor risk assessment considering accidental release of a sustained, small, undetected leak of a dense toxic gas (chlorine) in an industrial indoor environment. Results from simulations show that the denser chlorine gas spreads like a liquid and flows all along the floor. At the same time, its concentration at a point away from the ground level increases slowly, thus showing that both stratification and dilution effects are present as the dense gas spreads. The implications of this spreading pattern from a risk assessment and risk mitigation point of view are discussed.

  3. The impact of communicating genetic risks of disease on risk-reducing health behaviour: systematic review with meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hollands, Gareth J; French, David P; Griffin, Simon J; Prevost, A Toby; Sutton, Stephen; King, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the impact of communicating DNA based disease risk estimates on risk-reducing health behaviours and motivation to engage in such behaviours. Design Systematic review with meta-analysis, using Cochrane methods. Data sources Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials up to 25 February 2015. Backward and forward citation searches were also conducted. Study selection Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials involving adults in which one group received personalised DNA based estimates of disease risk for conditions where risk could be reduced by behaviour change. Eligible studies included a measure of risk-reducing behaviour. Results We examined 10 515 abstracts and included 18 studies that reported on seven behavioural outcomes, including smoking cessation (six studies; n=2663), diet (seven studies; n=1784), and physical activity (six studies; n=1704). Meta-analysis revealed no significant effects of communicating DNA based risk estimates on smoking cessation (odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.35, P=0.67), diet (standardised mean difference 0.12, 95% confidence interval −0.00 to 0.24, P=0.05), or physical activity (standardised mean difference −0.03, 95% confidence interval −0.13 to 0.08, P=0.62). There were also no effects on any other behaviours (alcohol use, medication use, sun protection behaviours, and attendance at screening or behavioural support programmes) or on motivation to change behaviour, and no adverse effects, such as depression and anxiety. Subgroup analyses provided no clear evidence that communication of a risk-conferring genotype affected behaviour more than communication of the absence of such a genotype. However, studies were predominantly at high or unclear risk of bias, and evidence was typically of low quality. Conclusions Expectations that communicating DNA based risk estimates changes behaviour is not supported by existing evidence

  4. Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  5. Clinical Risk Characteristics of Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage Severity: A Multivariable Risk Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Chaikitamnuaychok, Rangson; Patumanond, Jayanton

    2012-01-01

    Background Upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) is one of the common clinical manifestations encountered in most emergency departments. Patient characteristics indicating UGIH severity in developing countries may be different from those in developed countries. The present study was designed to explore clinical prognostic indicators for UGIH severity. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted in a university affiliated tertiary hospital in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. Medical folders of patients with UGIH were reviewed. Patients were grouped into 3 severity levels, based on criteria proposed by The American College of Surgeon. Pre-defined prognostic indicators were compared. The prognostic indicators for UGIH severity were analyzed by a multivariable continuation ratio ordinal logistic regression and presented with odds ratios. Results From 1,043 eligible medical folders, 984 (94.3%) complete folders were used in analysis. There were 241, 631 and 112 patients in the mild, moderate and severe UGIH groups. Six independent indicators of severe UGIH were, hemoglobin < 100 g/dL (OR = 13.82, 95% CI = 9.40 to 20.33, P < 0.001), systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg (OR = 11.01, 95% CI = 7.41 to 16.36, P < 0.001), presence of hepatic failure (OR = 5.50, 95% CI = 1.14 to26.64, P = 0.037), presence of cirrhosis (OR = 2.03, 95% CI = 1.32 to 3.11, P = 0.001), blood urea nitrogen ≥ 35 mmol/L (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.25 to 2.40, P = 0.001), and pulse rate ≥ 100 per minute (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.21 to 2.45, P = 0.003). Conclusions Pulse rate ≥ 100 per minute, systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg, hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, blood urea nitrogen ≥ 35 mmol/L, presence of cirrhosis and presence of hepatic failure are prognostic indicators for an increase in UGIH severity levels. They are potentially useful in UGIH risk stratification.

  6. Risk analysis for truck transportation of high consequence cargo.

    SciTech Connect

    Waters, Robert David

    2010-09-01

    The fixed facilities control everything they can to drive down risk. They control the environment, work processes, work pace and workers. The transportation sector drive the State and US highways with high kinetic energy and less-controllable risks such as: (1) other drivers (beginners, impaired, distracted, etc.); (2) other vehicles (tankers, hazmat, super-heavies); (3) road environments (bridges/tunnels/abutments/construction); and (4) degraded weather.

  7. [Analysis of the security risk in home medical equipment].

    PubMed

    Peng, Xiaolong; Xu, Honglei; Tian, Xiaojun

    2014-01-01

    The popularization of home medical equipment facilitates the treatment and management of many diseases, improving the patient compliance. However, due to the absence of medical background, most of their users have various security risk in the course of reorganization, choosing, using and maintenance of the products. This paper analyzed the property of security risk in home medical equipment, and described the matters needing attention in the using of several common products.

  8. [Analysis of the security risk in home medical equipment].

    PubMed

    Peng, Xiaolong; Xu, Honglei; Tian, Xiaojun

    2014-01-01

    The popularization of home medical equipment facilitates the treatment and management of many diseases, improving the patient compliance. However, due to the absence of medical background, most of their users have various security risk in the course of reorganization, choosing, using and maintenance of the products. This paper analyzed the property of security risk in home medical equipment, and described the matters needing attention in the using of several common products. PMID:24839857

  9. Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.; Dyer, G.; Johnson, N.; McSwain, J. T.

    2011-02-01

    A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the

  10. Exploring risk in professional nursing practice: an analysis of work refusal and professional risk.

    PubMed

    Beardwood, Barbara A; Kainer, Jan M

    2015-03-01

    This article explores risk in professional nursing practice. Professional risk refers to the threat of professional discipline if it is found that a registered nurse has violated professional nursing practice standards. We argue professional risk is socially constructed and understood differently by nurse regulatory bodies, unions, professional associations and frontline nurses. Regulatory bodies emphasize professional accountability of nurses; professional associations focus on system problems in health-care; unions undertake protecting nurses' right to health and safety; and frontline nurses experience fear and uncertainty in their attempt to interpret practice standards to avoid professional discipline. Perspectives of professional risk are investigated by analyzing three professional nursing bodies' views of professional codes governing the right of nurses to refuse unsafe work assignments. The workplace dynamics surrounding work refusal experienced by frontline nurses are illustrated primarily through the lens of the 2003 SARS influenza outbreak in Ontario, Canada. We conclude that frontline nurses in Ontario are required to manage risk by following professional protocols prioritizing patient care and professional accountability which disregard the systemic, unpredictable and hazardous circumstances in their everyday practice. Moreover, we argue professional protocols cannot anticipate every eventuality in clinical practice creating the fear of professional discipline for nurses.

  11. Analysis of factors that increase motorcycle rider risk compared to car driver risk.

    PubMed

    Keall, Michael D; Newstead, Stuart

    2012-11-01

    As in other parts of the Western world, there is concern in New Zealand about increasing popularity of motorcycles because of potential increases in road trauma. This study sought to identify important factors associated with increased risk for motorcyclists to inform potential policy approaches to reduce motorcyclist injury, such as changes to motorcyclist licensing, training and education. Using data extracted from a register of all New Zealand licensed motor vehicles that were matched to crash data, statistical models were fitted to examine patterns of motorcycle risk in comparison with small cars. These showed generally elevated risks for motorcyclists compared to cars, but particularly elevated risks for motorcycle owners aged in their 20s or who lived in more urbanised settings. In crashes, motorcyclists have little protection from injury, putting the motorcyclist at high risk of injury. When comparing new motorcycles with new cars, the odds of fatal or serious injury to a motorcycle rider involved in an injury crash were almost eight times the odds for a car driver.

  12. [The role of a specialised risk analysis group in the Veterinary Services of a developing country].

    PubMed

    Urbina-Amarís, M E

    2003-08-01

    Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was established, risk analysis in trade, and ultimately in Veterinary and Animal Health Services, has become strategically important. Irrespective of their concept (discipline, approach, method, process), all types of risk analysis in trade involve four periods or phases:--risk identification-- risk assessment--risk management--risk information or communication. All veterinarians involved in a risk analysis unit must have in-depth knowledge of statistics and the epidemiology of transmissible diseases, as well as a basic knowledge of veterinary science, economics, mathematics, data processing and social communication, to enable them to work with professionals in these disciplines. Many developing countries do not have enough well-qualified professionnals in these areas to support a risk analysis unit. This will need to be rectified by seeking strategic alliances with other public or private sectors that will provide the required support to run the unit properly. Due to the special nature of its risk analysis functions, its role in supporting decision-making, and the criteria of independence and transparency that are so crucial to its operations, the hierarchical position of the risk analysis unit should be close to the top management of the Veterinary Service. Due to the shortage of personnel in developing countries with the required training and scientific and technical qualifications, countries with organisations responsible for both animal and plant health protection would be advised to set up integrated plant and animal risk analysis units. In addition, these units could take charge of all activities relating to WTO agreements and regional agreements on animal and plant health management. PMID:15884594

  13. [The role of a specialised risk analysis group in the Veterinary Services of a developing country].

    PubMed

    Urbina-Amarís, M E

    2003-08-01

    Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was established, risk analysis in trade, and ultimately in Veterinary and Animal Health Services, has become strategically important. Irrespective of their concept (discipline, approach, method, process), all types of risk analysis in trade involve four periods or phases:--risk identification-- risk assessment--risk management--risk information or communication. All veterinarians involved in a risk analysis unit must have in-depth knowledge of statistics and the epidemiology of transmissible diseases, as well as a basic knowledge of veterinary science, economics, mathematics, data processing and social communication, to enable them to work with professionals in these disciplines. Many developing countries do not have enough well-qualified professionnals in these areas to support a risk analysis unit. This will need to be rectified by seeking strategic alliances with other public or private sectors that will provide the required support to run the unit properly. Due to the special nature of its risk analysis functions, its role in supporting decision-making, and the criteria of independence and transparency that are so crucial to its operations, the hierarchical position of the risk analysis unit should be close to the top management of the Veterinary Service. Due to the shortage of personnel in developing countries with the required training and scientific and technical qualifications, countries with organisations responsible for both animal and plant health protection would be advised to set up integrated plant and animal risk analysis units. In addition, these units could take charge of all activities relating to WTO agreements and regional agreements on animal and plant health management.

  14. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  15. Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: An assessment of the risk to Douglas commercial transport aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schjelderup, H. C.; Cook, C. Q.; Snyder, E.; Henning, B.; Hosford, J.; Gilles, D. L.; Swanstrom, C. W.

    1980-01-01

    The potential hazard to electrical and electronic devices should there be a release of free carbon fibers due to an aircraft crash and fire was assessed. Exposure and equipment sensitivity data were compiled for a risk analysis. Results are presented in the following areas: DC-9/DC-10 electrical/electronic component characterization; DC-9 and DC-10 fiber transfer functions; potential for transport aircraft equipment exposure to carbon fibers; and equipment vulnerability assessment. Results reflect only a negligible increase in risk for the DC-9 and DC-10 fleets either now or projected to 1993.

  16. Import risk analysis of fruit from Spain to Italy.

    PubMed

    Pani, G; Molinu, M G; Venditti, T; Dore, A; Ladu, G; D'Hallewin, G

    2012-01-01

    similar to the indigenous strains, we may conclude from this risk analysis that the import of the studied fruits produced in the 4 geographical areas of Spain does not increase the local baseline resistance. PMID:23878972

  17. Import risk analysis of fruit from Spain to Italy.

    PubMed

    Pani, G; Molinu, M G; Venditti, T; Dore, A; Ladu, G; D'Hallewin, G

    2012-01-01

    similar to the indigenous strains, we may conclude from this risk analysis that the import of the studied fruits produced in the 4 geographical areas of Spain does not increase the local baseline resistance.

  18. Geospatial Analysis of Urban Land Use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic Fever Risk - a Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izzah, L. N.; Majid, Z.; Ariff, M. A. M.; Fook, C. K.

    2016-09-01

    Human modification of the natural environment continues to create habitats in which vectors of a wide variety of human and animal pathogens (such as Plasmodium, Aedes aegypti, Arenavirus etc.) thrive if unabated with an enormous potential to negatively affect public health. Typical examples of these modifications include impoundments, dams, irrigation systems, landfills and so on that provide enabled environment for the transmission of Hemorrhagic fever such as malaria, dengue, avian flu, Lassa fever etc. Furthermore, contemporary urban dwelling pattern appears to be associated with the prevalence of Hemorrhagic diseases in recent years. These observations are not peculiar to the developing world, as urban expansion also contributes significantly to mosquito and other vectors habitats. This habitats offer breeding ground to some vector virus populations. The key to disease control is developing an understanding of the contribution of human landscape modification to vector-borne pathogen transmission and how a balance may be achieved between human development, public health, and responsible urban land use. A comprehensive review of urban land use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic fever risk has been conducted in this paper. The study found that most of the available literatures dwell more on the impact of urban land use on malaria and dengue fevers; however, studies are yet to be found discussing the implications of urban land use on the risk of Ebola, Lassa and other non-mosquito borne VHFs. A relational model for investigating the influence of urban land use change pattern on the risk of Hemorrhagic fever has been proposed in this study.

  19. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  20. Risk analysis methods and techniques for veterinary biologicals used in Australia.

    PubMed

    Owusu, J

    1995-12-01

    Advances in modern science and technology and the globalisation of the veterinary manufacturing industry, coupled with the relaxation of trade restrictions by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade treaty on sanitary and phytosanitary measures, call for an international approach to standards of acceptable risk and risk analysis methodology. In Australia, different elements of risk analysis are undertaken by different agencies. The agencies employ screening risk assessment, which uses simple worst-case scenarios and conservative data to set priorities and identify issues of limited risk. The approach is multi-factorial, assessing risk to public health, animals and the environment. The major components of the analysis process are risk assessment, risk management, and procedures for communicating and monitoring risk. The author advocates the possible use of quantitative risk assessment, based on acceptable international standards, in making international trade decisions. In the absence of acceptable international standards, it is proposed that countries adopt mutual recognition of comparable standards and specifications employed by national agencies.

  1. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

  2. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas.

    PubMed

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

  3. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas.

    PubMed

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-08-05

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation.

  4. Genomic analysis of high-risk smoldering multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    López-Corral, Lucía; Mateos, María Victoria; Corchete, Luis A.; Sarasquete, María Eugenia; de la Rubia, Javier; de Arriba, Felipe; Lahuerta, Juan-José; García-Sanz, Ramón; San Miguel, Jesús F.; Gutiérrez, Norma C.

    2012-01-01

    Smoldering myeloma is an asymptomatic plasma cell dyscrasia with a heterogeneous propensity to progress to active myeloma. In order to investigate the biology of smoldering myeloma patients with high risk of progression, we analyzed the genomic characteristics by FISH, SNP-arrays and gene expression profile of a group of patients with high-risk smoldering myeloma included in a multicenter randomized trial. Chromosomal abnormalities detected by FISH and SNP-arrays at diagnosis were not associated to risk of progression to symptomatic myeloma. However, the overexpression of four SNORD genes (SNORD25, SNORD27, SNORD30 and SNORD31) was correlated with shorter time to progression (P<0.03). When plasma cells from high-risk smoldering patients who progressed to symptomatic myeloma were sequentially analyzed, newly acquired lesions together with an increase in the proportion of plasma cells carrying a given abnormality were observed. These findings suggest that gene expression profiling is a valuable technique to identify smoldering myeloma patients with high risk of progression. (Clinical Trials NCT00443235) PMID:22331267

  5. Economic Risk Analysis of Experimental Cropping Systems Using the SMART Risk Tool

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Recently, a variant of stochastic dominance called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) has been developed and applied. Unlike traditional stochastic dominance approaches, SERF uses the concept of certainty equivalents (CEs) to rank a set of risk-efficient alternatives instead of ...

  6. Small theories and large risks--is risk analysis relevant for epistemology?

    PubMed

    Cirković, Milan M

    2012-11-01

    Ought we to take seriously large risks predicted by "exotic" or improbable theories? We routinely assess risks on the basis or either common sense, or some developed theoretical framework based on the best available scientific explanations. Recently, there has been a substantial increase of interest in the low-probability "failure modes" of well-established theories, which can involve global catastrophic risks. However, here I wish to discuss a partially antithetical situation: alternative, low-probability ("small") scientific theories predicting catastrophic outcomes with large probability. I argue that there is an important methodological issue (determining what counts as the best available explanation in cases where the theories involved describe possibilities of extremely destructive global catastrophes), which has been neglected thus far. There is no simple answer to the correct method for dealing with high-probability high-stakes risks following from low-probability theories that still cannot be rejected outright, and much further work is required in this area. I further argue that cases like these are more numerous than usually assumed, for reasons including cognitive biases, sociological issues in science and the media image of science. If that is indeed so, it might lead to a greater weight of these cases in areas such as moral deliberation and policy making.

  7. Integration of Permanent Scatterers Analysis and High Resolution Optical Images within Landslide Risk Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farina, P.; Colombo, D.; Fumagalli, A.; Gontier, E.; Moretti, S.

    2004-06-01

    In the framework of the on-going SLAM project (Service for Landslide Monitoring), funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) the Permanent Scatterers processing and the analysis of high resolution images (e.g. SPOT5) have been performed at a basin scale, on the whole territory of the Arno River basin (Central Italy). The project aims at the development of a service based on the integration of EO-data within the current practices used for landslide risk management. The studied area, with a spatial extension of about 9,000 km2, has been chosen for the presence of a high number of mass movements (up today about 20,000 landslides have been mapped and 300 of them have been classified as at high risk from the institutional authorities) and for its significance, in terms of landslide typology and environmental conditions, with respect to the Italian Apennine territory. By considering the technical requirements imposed by the Italian legislation for the documents related to landslide risk management, three products based on EO- data have been defined related to landslide inventory mapping, landslide hazard mapping and landslide monitoring. To this aim, about 350 SAR images have been interferometrically processed by means of the PS technique, detecting about 600,000 PS. The processing of SPOT5 images and aerial-photos, still in progress, have been performed for the extraction of features related to the landslide presence, useful for the geomorphological analysis and, as a consequence in order to give a spatial meaning to the punctual information provided by the PS. This procedure has been coupled with a intense geological interpretation phase characterized by the analysis of traditional in situ monitoring data, ancillary data and the performing of field surveys. The results of the above described methodologies will impact on the current documents used by the Arno Basin Authority for the landslide risk management (e.g. P.A.I., Piano di Assetto Idrogeologico) creating a case

  8. Musculoskeletal symptoms, postural disorders and occupational risk factors: correlation analysis.

    PubMed

    Comper, Maria Luiza C; Macedo, Felipe; Padula, Rosimeire S

    2012-01-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMSD) include a list of inflammatory and degenerative diseases characterized by the presence of musculoskeletal symptoms, compensatory posture changes and functional disabilities. The objective of this study was to evaluate the kinetic/functional characteristics of textile plant workers, their level of exposure to risk factors and the contribution these make to musculoskeletal symptoms. The sample of 42 workers answered the Nordic Questionnaire and the Job Factors Questionnaire. The kinetic/functional characteristics of each worker were verified by a blinded evaluator. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Pearson's correlation. Musculoskeletal symptoms were more prevalent in the spinal region and upper limbs. The exposure levels to risk factors were identified as a serious problem. Postural disorders, musculoskeletal symptoms and risk factors were correlated (P ≤ 0.05).

  9. Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease: analysis of previously proposed risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Harlak, Ali; Mentes, Oner; Kilic, Selim; Coskun, Kagan; Duman, Kazim; Yilmaz, Fahri

    2010-01-01

    PURPOSE Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease is a source of one of the most common surgical problems among young adults. While male gender, obesity, occupations requiring sitting, deep natal clefts, excessive body hair, poor body hygiene and excessive sweating are described as the main risk factors for this disease, most of these need to be verified with a clinical trial. The present study aimed to evaluate the value and effect of these factors on pilonidal disease. METHOD Previously proposed main risk factors were evaluated in a prospective case control study that included 587 patients with pilonidal disease and 2,780 healthy control patients. RESULTS Stiffness of body hair, number of baths and time spent seated per day were the three most predictive risk factors. Adjusted odds ratios were 9.23, 6.33 and 4.03, respectively (p<0.001). With an adjusted odds ratio of 1.3 (p<.001), body mass index was another risk factor. Family history was not statistically different between the groups and there was no specific occupation associated with the disease. CONCLUSIONS Hairy people who sit down for more than six hours a day and those who take a bath two or less times per week are at a 219-fold increased risk for sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease than those without these risk factors. For people with a great deal of hair, there is a greater need for them to clean their intergluteal sulcus. People who engage in work that requires sitting in a seat for long periods of time should choose more comfortable seats and should also try to stand whenever possible. PMID:20186294

  10. Risk Factors for Gambling Problems: An Analysis by Gender.

    PubMed

    Hing, Nerilee; Russell, Alex; Tolchard, Barry; Nower, Lia

    2016-06-01

    Differences in problem gambling rates between males and females suggest that associated risk factors vary by gender. Previous combined analyses of male and female gambling may have obscured these distinctions. This study aimed to develop separate risk factor models for gambling problems for males and for females, and identify gender-based similarities and differences. It analysed data from the largest prevalence study in Victoria Australia (N = 15,000). Analyses determined factors differentiating non-problem from at-risk gamblers separately for women and men, then compared genders using interaction terms. Separate multivariate analyses determined significant results when controlling for all others. Variables included demographics, gambling behaviour, gambling motivations, money management, and mental and physical health. Significant predictors of at-risk status amongst female gamblers included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on private betting, electronic gaming machines (EGMs), scratch tickets or bingo, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. For males, risk factors included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, low education, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on EGMs, table games, races, sports or lotteries, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. High risk groups requiring appropriate interventions comprise young adults, especially males; middle-aged female EGM gamblers; non-English speaking populations; frequent EGM, table games, race and sports gamblers; and gamblers motivated by escape. PMID:25948418

  11. Relative risk analysis of the use of radiation-emitting medical devices: A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.

    1996-06-01

    This report describes the development of a risk analysis approach for evaluating the use of radiation-emitting medial devices. This effort was performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The assessment approach has bee applied to understand the risks in using the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis for developing regulations and quality assurance requirements in the use of nuclear medical devices. The risk approach identifies and assesses the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance for the medical system. The approach uses expert screening techniques and relative risk profiling to incorporate the type, quality, and quantity of data available and to present results in an easily understood form.

  12. Metabolic syndrome risk factors and dry eye syndrome: a Meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Ye-Lei; Cheng, Ya-Lan; Ren, Yu-Ping; Yu, Xiao-Ning; Shentu, Xing-Chao

    2016-01-01

    AIM To explore the relationship between metabolic risk factors and dry eye syndrome (DES). METHODS Retrieved studies on the association of metabolic syndrome risk factors (hypertension, hyperglycemia, obesity, and hyperlipidemia) and DES were collected from PubMed, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library in December 2015. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were pooled to evaluate the final relationship. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to diagnostic criteria of DES. RESULTS Nine cross-sectional studies and three case-control studies were included in this Meta-analysis. The pooled results showed that people with hypertension, hyperglycemia, and hyperlipidemia had a higher risk of suffering from DES (P<0.05), especially the typical DES symptoms. On the other hand, obesity did not increase the risk of DES. CONCLUSION The present Meta-analysis suggests that all metabolic risk factors except obesity were risk factors for DES. PMID:27500114

  13. Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, Lauri K.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Duncan, Matthew G.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

    2014-01-01

    Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.

  14. A comparative analysis of PRA and intelligent adversary methods for counterterrorism risk management.

    PubMed

    Merrick, Jason; Parnell, Gregory S

    2011-09-01

    In counterterrorism risk management decisions, the analyst can choose to represent terrorist decisions as defender uncertainties or as attacker decisions. We perform a comparative analysis of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods including event trees, influence diagrams, Bayesian networks, decision trees, game theory, and combined methods on the same illustrative examples (container screening for radiological materials) to get insights into the significant differences in assumptions and results. A key tenent of PRA and decision analysis is the use of subjective probability to assess the likelihood of possible outcomes. For each technique, we compare the assumptions, probability assessment requirements, risk levels, and potential insights for risk managers. We find that assessing the distribution of potential attacker decisions is a complex judgment task, particularly considering the adaptation of the attacker to defender decisions. Intelligent adversary risk analysis and adversarial risk analysis are extensions of decision analysis and sequential game theory that help to decompose such judgments. These techniques explicitly show the adaptation of the attacker and the resulting shift in risk based on defender decisions. PMID:21418080

  15. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

    PubMed

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction.

  16. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  17. Dairy consumption and lung cancer risk: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Yi; Li, Hui; Xu, Kaiwu; Li, Xin; Hu, Chunlin; Wei, Hongyan; Zeng, Xiaoyun; Jing, Xiaoli

    2016-01-01

    Background Lung cancer risk is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between dairy consumption and lung cancer risk. Methods The databases included EMBASE, Medline (PubMed), and Web of Science. The relationship between dairy consumption and lung cancer risk was analyzed by relative risk or odds ratio estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We identified eight prospective cohort studies, which amounted to 10,344 cases and 61,901 participants. Results For milk intake, relative risk was 0.95 (95% CI: 0.76–1.15); heterogeneity was 70.2% (P=0.003). For total dairy product intake, relative risk was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.89–1.03), heterogeneity was 68.4% (P=0.004). Conclusion There was no significant association between dairy consumption and lung cancer risk. PMID:26766916

  18. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    SciTech Connect

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare.

  19. Semi-Competing Risks Data Analysis: Accounting for Death as a Competing Risk When the Outcome of Interest Is Nonterminal.

    PubMed

    Haneuse, Sebastien; Lee, Kyu Ha

    2016-05-01

    Hospital readmission is a key marker of quality of health care. Notwithstanding its widespread use, however, it remains controversial in part because statistical methods used to analyze readmission, primarily logistic regression and related models, may not appropriately account for patients who die before experiencing a readmission event within the time frame of interest. Toward resolving this, we describe and illustrate the semi-competing risks framework, which refers to the general setting where scientific interest lies with some nonterminal event (eg, readmission), the occurrence of which is subject to a terminal event (eg, death). Although several statistical analysis methods have been proposed for semi-competing risks data, we describe in detail the use of illness-death models primarily because of their relation to well-known methods for survival analysis and the availability of software. We also describe and consider in detail several existing approaches that could, in principle, be used to analyze semi-competing risks data, including composite end point and competing risks analyses. Throughout we illustrate the ideas and methods using data on N=49 763 Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized between 2011 and 2013 with a principle discharge diagnosis of heart failure.

  20. Analysis of genetics and risk factors of Alzheimer's Disease.

    PubMed

    Panpalli Ates, M; Karaman, Y; Guntekin, S; Ergun, M A

    2016-06-14

    Alzheimer's Disease is the leading neurodegenerative cause of dementia. The pathogenesis is not clearly understood yet, is believed to be the complex interaction between genetic and environmental factors. Consequently vascular risk factors and Apolipoprotein E genotyping are increasingly gaining importance. This study aimed at assessing the relationships between Alzheimer's Disease and Apolipoprotein E phenotype and vascular risk factors. Patients diagnosed with "possible Alzheimer's Disease" in the Gazi University, Department of Neurology, were included in the study and age-matched volunteer patients who attended the polyclinic were included as a control group. In this study, the risk factors including low education level, smoking, hyperlipidemia, higher serum total cholesterol levels, and hyperhomocysteinemia were found to be statistically significantly more common in the Alzheimer's Disease group in comparison to the Control Group, while all Apolipoprotein E ε4/ε4 genotypes were found in the Alzheimer's Disease group. The presence of the Apolipoprotein E ε4 allele is believed to increase vascular risk factors as well as to affect Alzheimer's Disease directly. The biological indicators which are used in identifying the patients' genes will be probably used in the treatment plan of the patients in the future.

  1. A risk-informed approach to safety margins analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli

    2013-07-01

    The Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway is a systematic approach developed to characterize and quantify safety margins of nuclear power plant structures, systems and components. The model has been tested on the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Lab.

  2. Small Area Analysis of Risk for Childhood Lead Poisoning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Mary Jean; Shenassa, Edmond; Tips, Nancy

    Although mean blood lead (BPb) levels in the United States continue to decrease, there is evidence that certain populations, particularly young children living in communities with a high proportion of older, poorly maintained housing, remain at high risk for lead exposure. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the prevalence…

  3. Analysis of lung tumor risks in rats exposed to radon.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, E S; Cross, F T; Dagle, G E

    1996-03-01

    Using data on 3117 rats exposed by inhalation to radon, radon progeny and uranium ore dust, the hazard function (or age-specific risk) for lung tumor incidence was modeled as a function of exposure, exposure rate and other factors. The overall estimate of lifetime risk was 237 cases per 10(6) rats per WLM (237 per 10(6) WLM), reasonably comparable to estimates obtained from data for humans. The data below 1000 WLM (20-640 WLM) were consistent with linearity with positive excess risks at all levels; however, evidence of statistically significant excess risk was limited to exposures of 80 WLM or greater. Evidence for an inverse exposure-rate effect was limited primarily to cumulative exposures exceeding 1000 WLM (1280-10,240 WLM) and to comparison of results at 100 and 1000 WL. Even at these levels, the possibility that the effect might be explained by time since last exposure or by heterogeneity across experiments could not be entirely excluded. The inverse exposure-rate effect was strongest for epidermoid and adenosquamous tumors, and the only indication of such an effect at exposures below 1000 WLM was modest evidence (P=0.024) in analyses limited to these tumors. When all lung tumors, or all malignant lung tumors, were included, there was no evidence of such an effect below 1000 WLM. These data support the viewpoint that the inverse exposure-rate effect is primarily a high-dose phenomenon. PMID:8927704

  4. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  5. Bayesian data analysis of severe fatal accident risk in the oil chain.

    PubMed

    Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non-OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation-namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis. PMID:22642363

  6. Analysis of the height dependence of site-specific cancer risk in relation to organ mass

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Background Cancer risks at multiple cancer sites have been shown to correlate positively with height. An existing idea is that taller people have more cells and thus more prone to mutations that will lead to cancer, and the hypothesis is that cancer risk is proportional to the organ mass. In this study we quantitatively test this hypothesis. Methods We perform an analysis of large-scale data on the height dependence of site-specific cancer risks. We also perform an analysis of the height dependence of measured organ masses. We then compare the cancer risk data with the expectations based on the organ mass hypothesis. Our study includes 16 cancer sites of women and 14 cancer sites of men. Results For the relative risk (RR) per 10 cm increase in height for cancer incidence, the averaged expected value is within the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the averaged cancer risk data for 8 out of the 15 cancer sites for which the comparison can be made. Also, a large proportion of the sex difference of cancer risks for pancreas and lungs could come from the sex difference of the organ mass. Conclusions The hypothesis that cancer risk is proportional to the organ mass partially explains the height dependence of cancer risks. It also helps explain the sex difference of cancer risks, especially for pancreas and lungs. PMID:27047947

  7. Space-Time Analysis to Identify Areas at Risk of Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Poliany C. O.; Santos, Emerson S.; Ignotti, Eliane; Hacon, Sandra S.

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed at identifying areas that were at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in residents aged 45 years or older of the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande between 2009 and 2011. We conducted an ecological study of mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. Mortality rates were calculated for each census tract by the Local Empirical Bayes estimator. High- and low-risk clusters were identified by retrospective space-time scans for each year using the Poisson probability model. We defined the year and month as the temporal analysis unit and the census tracts as the spatial analysis units adjusted by age and sex. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the socioeconomic and environmental variables by risk classification. High-risk clusters showed higher income ratios than low-risk clusters, as did temperature range and atmospheric particulate matter. Low-risk clusters showed higher humidity than high-risk clusters. The Eastern region of Várzea Grande and the central region of Cuiabá were identified as areas at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 45 years or older. High mortality risk was associated with socioeconomic and environmental factors. More high-risk clusters were observed at the end of the dry season. PMID:26504836

  8. Bayesian data analysis of severe fatal accident risk in the oil chain.

    PubMed

    Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non-OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation-namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis.

  9. Introduction to Political Risk Analysis. Learning Packages in the Policy Sciences, PS-24.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coplin, William D.; O'Leary, Michael K.

    This package introduces college students to the kind of analysis that multinational corporations undertake to assess risks to their business operations due to political and economic conditions. Designed to be completed in 3 weeks, the four exercises enable students to (1) identify the major sources of political risk; (2) determine what social,…

  10. Identifying At-Risk Students in General Chemistry via Cluster Analysis of Affective Characteristics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Julia Y. K.; Bauer, Christopher F.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify academically at-risk students in first-semester general chemistry using affective characteristics via cluster analysis. Through the clustering of six preselected affective variables, three distinct affective groups were identified: low (at-risk), medium, and high. Students in the low affective group…

  11. Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides. An Uncertainty Analysis for Risk Coefficients Reported in Federal Guidance Report No. 13

    SciTech Connect

    Pawel, David; Leggett, Richard Wayne; Eckerman, Keith F; Nelson, Christopher

    2007-01-01

    Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.

  12. Grouping of Diverse Stressors for Cumulative Risk Analysis (CRA) by Media, Time and Toxicity

    EPA Science Inventory

    CRAs may address multiple chemical, physical, biological or psychosocial stressors. Approaches for grouping diverse stressors prior to risk analysis can simplify some complexities associated with CRAs. For CRAs involving chemical mixtures, this entails developing CRA exposure gr...

  13. Review of Research Trends and Methods in Nano Environmental, Health, and Safety Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Erbis, Serkan; Ok, Zeynep; Isaacs, Jacqueline A; Benneyan, James C; Kamarthi, Sagar

    2016-08-01

    Despite the many touted benefits of nanomaterials, concerns remain about their possible environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks in terms of their toxicity, long-term accumulation effects, or dose-response relationships. The published studies on EHS risks of nanomaterials have increased significantly over the past decade and half, with most focused on nanotoxicology. Researchers are still learning about health consequences of nanomaterials and how to make environmentally responsible decisions regarding their production. This article characterizes the scientific literature on nano-EHS risk analysis to map the state-of-the-art developments in this field and chart guidance for the future directions. First, an analysis of keyword co-occurrence networks is investigated for nano-EHS literature published in the past decade to identify the intellectual turning points and research trends in nanorisk analysis studies. The exposure groups targeted in emerging nano-EHS studies are also assessed. System engineering methods for risk, safety, uncertainty, and system reliability analysis are reviewed, followed by detailed descriptions where applications of these methods are utilized to analyze nanomaterial EHS risks. Finally, the trends, methods, future directions, and opportunities of system engineering methods in nano-EHS research are discussed. The analysis of nano-EHS literature presented in this article provides important insights on risk assessment and risk management tools associated with nanotechnology, nanomanufacturing, and nano-enabled products. PMID:26882074

  14. Review of Research Trends and Methods in Nano Environmental, Health, and Safety Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Erbis, Serkan; Ok, Zeynep; Isaacs, Jacqueline A; Benneyan, James C; Kamarthi, Sagar

    2016-08-01

    Despite the many touted benefits of nanomaterials, concerns remain about their possible environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks in terms of their toxicity, long-term accumulation effects, or dose-response relationships. The published studies on EHS risks of nanomaterials have increased significantly over the past decade and half, with most focused on nanotoxicology. Researchers are still learning about health consequences of nanomaterials and how to make environmentally responsible decisions regarding their production. This article characterizes the scientific literature on nano-EHS risk analysis to map the state-of-the-art developments in this field and chart guidance for the future directions. First, an analysis of keyword co-occurrence networks is investigated for nano-EHS literature published in the past decade to identify the intellectual turning points and research trends in nanorisk analysis studies. The exposure groups targeted in emerging nano-EHS studies are also assessed. System engineering methods for risk, safety, uncertainty, and system reliability analysis are reviewed, followed by detailed descriptions where applications of these methods are utilized to analyze nanomaterial EHS risks. Finally, the trends, methods, future directions, and opportunities of system engineering methods in nano-EHS research are discussed. The analysis of nano-EHS literature presented in this article provides important insights on risk assessment and risk management tools associated with nanotechnology, nanomanufacturing, and nano-enabled products.

  15. Comparing risk in conventional and organic dairy farming in the Netherlands: an empirical analysis.

    PubMed

    Berentsen, P B M; Kovacs, K; van Asseldonk, M A P M

    2012-07-01

    This study was undertaken to contribute to the understanding of why most dairy farmers do not convert to organic farming. Therefore, the objective of this research was to assess and compare risks for conventional and organic farming in the Netherlands with respect to gross margin and the underlying price and production variables. To investigate the risk factors a farm accountancy database was used containing panel data from both conventional and organic representative Dutch dairy farms (2001-2007). Variables with regard to price and production risk were identified using a gross margin analysis scheme. Price risk variables were milk price and concentrate price. The main production risk variables were milk yield per cow, roughage yield per hectare, and veterinary costs per cow. To assess risk, an error component implicit detrending method was applied and the resulting detrended standard deviations were compared between conventional and organic farms. Results indicate that the risk included in the gross margin per cow is significantly higher in organic farming. This is caused by both higher price and production risks. Price risks are significantly higher in organic farming for both milk price and concentrate price. With regard to production risk, only milk yield per cow poses a significantly higher risk in organic farming.

  16. Risk factor profiles among intravenous drug using young adults: a latent class analysis (LCA) approach.

    PubMed

    James, Sigrid; McField, Edward S; Montgomery, Susanne B

    2013-03-01

    Using data from a cross-sectional study that examined health risk behaviors among urban intravenous drug-using (IDU) adolescents and young adults, this study investigated risk profiles among a high-risk sample (n=274). Risk profiles were empirically derived through latent class analysis based on indicators of engagement in health-risking behaviors, experience of abuse and violence as well as individual and family risk factors. The best fitting model was a 3-class model. Class 1 (n=95) captured participants with the lowest risk across all indicators. Compared to Class 1, Class 2 (n=128) and Class 3 (n=51) had elevated rates of engagement in health-risking behaviors as well as individual and family risk factors; however, Class 3 had the highest rate of engagement in sexual risk behavior, and backgrounds of substantial abuse and violence as well as familial psychopathology. Class 2 was the group most socioeconomically disadvantaged, with the highest percentage of participants coming from poor backgrounds, spending the longest time homeless and working the fewest months. Identifying subgroups of IDU has the potential to guide the development of more targeted and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this high-risk population. PMID:23254231

  17. Risk Factor Profiles among Intravenous Drug Using Young Adults: A Latent Class Analysis (LCA) Approach

    PubMed Central

    James, Sigrid; McField, Edward S.; Montgomery, Susanne B.

    2013-01-01

    Using data from a cross-sectional study that examined health risk behaviors among urban intravenous drug-using (IDU) adolescents and young adults, this study investigated risk profiles among a high-risk sample (n=274). Risk profiles were empirically derived through latent class analysis based on indicators of engagement in health-risking behaviors, experience of abuse and violence as well as individual and family risk factors. The best fitting model was a 3-class model. Class 1 (n=95) captured participants with the lowest risk across all indicators. Compared to Class 1, Class 2 (n=128) and Class 3 (n=51) had elevated rates of engagement in health-risking behaviors as well as individual and family risk factors; however, Class 3 had the highest rate of engagement in sexual risk behavior, and backgrounds of substantial abuse and violence as well as familial psychopathology. Class 2 was the group most socioeconomically disadvantaged, with the highest percentage of participants coming from poor backgrounds, spending the longest time homeless and working the fewest months. Identifying subgroups of IDU has the potential to guide the development of more targeted and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this high-risk population. PMID:23254231

  18. Risk factor profiles among intravenous drug using young adults: a latent class analysis (LCA) approach.

    PubMed

    James, Sigrid; McField, Edward S; Montgomery, Susanne B

    2013-03-01

    Using data from a cross-sectional study that examined health risk behaviors among urban intravenous drug-using (IDU) adolescents and young adults, this study investigated risk profiles among a high-risk sample (n=274). Risk profiles were empirically derived through latent class analysis based on indicators of engagement in health-risking behaviors, experience of abuse and violence as well as individual and family risk factors. The best fitting model was a 3-class model. Class 1 (n=95) captured participants with the lowest risk across all indicators. Compared to Class 1, Class 2 (n=128) and Class 3 (n=51) had elevated rates of engagement in health-risking behaviors as well as individual and family risk factors; however, Class 3 had the highest rate of engagement in sexual risk behavior, and backgrounds of substantial abuse and violence as well as familial psychopathology. Class 2 was the group most socioeconomically disadvantaged, with the highest percentage of participants coming from poor backgrounds, spending the longest time homeless and working the fewest months. Identifying subgroups of IDU has the potential to guide the development of more targeted and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this high-risk population.

  19. Reliability analysis of roadway departure risk using stochastic processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rey, G.; Clair, D.; Fogli, M.; Bernardin, F.

    2011-05-01

    The work presented here aims to develop a warning device to prevent roadway departure while cornering. Given the random variability arising from the driver, the vehicle and the infrastructure at the entrance of the curve, a probabilistic strategy is adopted to assess the roadway departure risk. Random variables and processes are introduced in a specifically developed vehicle dynamics model. The driver's behaviours are deduced from real traffic measurements. Structural reliability methods are employed to compute a roadway departure risk index, used to take the decision of an alarm triggering. Particular care is brought to the reduction of the computational cost. Refinements made on the standard reliability methods to handle with the model non-linearities and the stochastic dimension are presented.

  20. Risk analysis of sulfites used as food additives in China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jian Bo; Zhang, Hong; Wang, Hua Li; Zhang, Ji Yue; Luo, Peng Jie; Zhu, Lei; Wang, Zhu Tian

    2014-02-01

    This study was to analyze the risk of sulfites in food consumed by the Chinese people and assess the health protection capability of maximum-permitted level (MPL) of sulfites in GB 2760-2011. Sulfites as food additives are overused or abused in many food categories. When the MPL in GB 2760-2011 was used as sulfites content in food, the intake of sulfites in most surveyed populations was lower than the acceptable daily intake (ADI). Excess intake of sulfites was found in all the surveyed groups when a high percentile of sulfites in food was in taken. Moreover, children aged 1-6 years are at a high risk to intake excess sulfites. The primary cause for the excess intake of sulfites in Chinese people is the overuse and abuse of sulfites by the food industry. The current MPL of sulfites in GB 2760-2011 protects the health of most populations.

  1. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trigg, M. A.; Birch, C. E.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P. J.; Winsemius, H. C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M. S.; Simpson, A. L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T. J.

    2016-09-01

    Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

  2. The value of integrating information from multiple hazards for flood risk analysis and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Escuder-Bueno, I.; Altarejos-García, L.; Serrano-Lombillo, A.

    2014-02-01

    This article presents a methodology for estimating flood risk in urban areas integrating pluvial flooding, river flooding and failure of both small and large dams. The first part includes a review of basic concepts on flood risk analysis, evaluation and management. Flood risk analyses may be developed at local, regional and national level, however a general methodology to perform a quantitative flood risk analysis including different flood hazards is still required. The second part describes the proposed methodology, which presents an integrated approach - combining pluvial, river flooding and flooding from dam failure, as applied to a case study: an urban area located downstream of a dam under construction. The methodology enhances the approach developed within the SUFRI project ("Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management to cope with the residual risk", 2009-2011). This article also shows how outcomes from flood risk analysis provide better and more complete information to inform authorities, local entities and the stakeholders involved in decision-making with regard to flood risk management.

  3. Analysis of health impact inputs to the US Department of Energy's risk information system

    SciTech Connect

    Droppo, J.G. Jr.; Buck, J.W.; Strenge, D.L.; Siegel, M.R.

    1990-08-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is in the process of completing a survey of environmental problems, referred to as the Environmental Survey, at their facilities across the country. The DOE Risk Information System (RIS) is being used to prioritize these environmental problems identified in the Environmental Survey's findings. This report contains a discussion of site-specific public health risk parameters and the rationale for their inclusion in the RIS. These parameters are based on computed potential impacts obtained with the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS). MEPAS is a computer-based methodology for evaluating the potential exposures resulting from multimedia environmental transport of hazardous materials. This report has three related objectives: document the role of MEPAS in the RIS framework, report the results of the analysis of alternative risk parameters that led to the current RIS risk parameters, and describe analysis of uncertainties in the risk-related parameters. 20 refs., 17 figs., 10 tabs.

  4. [Multifactorial analysis of risk factors for low birth weight in Salvador, Bahia].

    PubMed

    Solla, J J; Pereira, R A; Medina, M G; Pinto, L L; Mota, E

    1997-07-01

    This study is a multifactorial analysis of the risk factors for low birthweight in a group of newborns in an urban area of Brazil. A total of 1023 infants born in four maternity units in Salvador, Bahia, between July 1987 and February 1988 were included in the study. The sources of information were clinical histories and interviews with the mothers in the maternity units. The analysis was by means of logistic regression. In the final model the risk factors were the following: maternal age less than 21 years or more than 35; gestational age less than 38 weeks; unfavorable outcome of an earlier pregnancy; interval of 12 months or less since prior birth; tobacco smoking; and hypertension. The population attributable risk values for the risk factors included in the final model are presented. These factors should be used to identify pregnant women at high risk of giving birth to a low-birthweight baby, in order to provide them with more prenatal care.

  5. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

  6. Alcohol drinking and risk of leukemia-a systematic review and meta-analysis of the dose-risk relation.

    PubMed

    Rota, Matteo; Porta, Lorenzo; Pelucchi, Claudio; Negri, Eva; Bagnardi, Vincenzo; Bellocco, Rino; Corrao, Giovanni; Boffetta, Paolo; La Vecchia, Carlo

    2014-08-01

    The association between alcohol and leukemia risk has been addressed in several studies in the past two decades, but results have been inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the dose-risk relation. Through the literature search up to August 2013, we identified 18 studies, 10 case-control and 8 cohorts, carried out in a total of 7142 leukemia cases. We derived pooled meta-analytic estimates using random-effects models, taking into account the correlation between estimates, and we performed a dose-risk analysis using a class of nonlinear random-effects meta-regression models. Stratified analyses were carried out on leukemia subtypes and groups, in order to identify possible etiologic differences. Compared with nondrinkers, the relative risks (RRs) for all leukemia were 0.94 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.85-1.03], 0.90 (95% CI, 0.80-1.01) and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.81-1.02) for any, light (≤ 1 drink/day) and moderate to heavy (>1 drink/day) alcohol drinking, respectively. The summary RRs for any alcohol drinking were 1.47 (95% CI, 0.47-4.62) for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, 0.94 (95% CI 0.77-1.15) for chronic lymphocytic leukemia, 1.02 (95% CI, 0.86-1.21) for acute myeloid leukemia and 0.93 (95% CI 0.75-1.14) for chronic myeloid leukemia. The subgroup analysis on geographical area for all leukemia combined showed RRs of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.76-0.93), 0.92 (95% CI, 0.83-1.01) and 1.32 (95% CI, 1.02-1.70) for studies conducted in America, Europe and Asia, respectively. We did not find an increased risk of leukemia among alcohol drinkers. If any, a modest favorable effect emerged for light alcohol drinking, with a model-based risk reduction of approximately 10% in regular drinkers.

  7. Stakeholder consultations and opportunities for integrating socio-behavioural factors into the pesticide risk analysis process.

    PubMed

    Calliera, Maura; Marchis, Alex; Sacchettini, Gabriele; Capri, Ettore

    2016-02-01

    The pesticide risk analysis process is well regulated in the EU, especially in relation to placing on the market authorisation procedures, but in order to avoid risks for human health and environment in the use phase, information on how these substances are employed and on socio-behavioural factors that can influence the exposure have to be taken into account. To better explore reasons about the gap between risk assessment and risk management, within the EU FP7 Health and Environmental Risks: Organisation, Integration and Cross-fertilisation of Scientific Knowledge (HEROIC) project, a stepwise stakeholder's consultation process was developed using a mixed approach in two different phases (survey and roundtable). We elicited stakeholder views regarding factors that could limit the pesticide risk assessment phase linked on how the knowledge is produced and the way the data are used in risk management and in risk communication, also taking into account qualitative factors such as responsibility, trust and behaviours, which could have impact on risk assessment policies. Activities deployed indicate that some changes and interaction are needed to better define the problems at the formulation stage, and the type of information risk assessor has to provide, to better inform risk manager in addressing different societal needs, to strengthen the credibility of the process of risk assessment and improve the effectiveness of policies. Integrations between disciplines may initially increase the complexity but in turn will provide a better and more useful estimation of the risk, reinforce transparency and drive a more efficient use of risk management resources. PMID:26498808

  8. In-group rationalizations of risk and indoor tanning: A textual analysis of an online forum.

    PubMed

    Carcioppolo, Nick; Chudnovskaya, Elena V; Martinez Gonzalez, Andrea; Stephan, Tyler

    2016-07-01

    Unlike other health behaviors, there does not appear to be a strong relationship between perceived skin cancer risk and reduction or cessation of indoor tanning bed use. This study seeks to address this inconsistency by determining how indoor tanning bed users rationalize skin cancer risk with their tanning behavior. Qualitative textual analysis of indoor tanning message board posts (N = 330) revealed varied perceptions of risk, including acknowledging the risk of indoor tanning; denying or downplaying risk, often citing perceived health benefits associated with tanning; blaming outside forces for cancer, such as lotion or genetics; and fatalistic beliefs about cancer. These results highlight the nuanced relationship between perceived skin cancer risk and indoor tanning bed use.

  9. Framing environmental risks in the Baltic Sea: a news media analysis.

    PubMed

    Jönsson, Anna Maria

    2011-03-01

    Scientific complexity and uncertainty is a key challenge for environmental risk governance and to understand how risks are framed and communicated is of utmost importance. The Baltic Sea ecosystem is stressed and exposed to different risks like eutrophication, overfishing, and hazardous chemicals. Based on an analysis of the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, this study discusses media representations of these risks. The results show that the reporting on the Baltic Sea has been fairly stable since the beginning of the 1990s. Many articles acknowledge several risks, but eutrophication receives the most attention and is also considered the biggest threat. Authorities, experts, organizations, and politicians are the dominating actors, while citizens and industry representatives are more or less invisible. Eutrophication is not framed in terms of uncertainty concerning the risk and consequences, but rather in terms of main causes.

  10. Space Weather Influence on Power Systems: Prediction, Risk Analysis, and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yatsenko, Vitaliy

    2016-04-01

    This report concentrates on dynamic probabilistic risk analysis of optical elements for complex characterization of damages using physical model of solid state lasers and predictable level of ionizing radiation and space weather. The following main subjects will be covered by our report: (a) solid-state laser model; (b) mathematical models for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; and (c) software for modeling and prediction of ionizing radiation. A probabilistic risk assessment method for solid-state lasers is presented with consideration of some deterministic and stochastic factors. Probabilistic risk assessment is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in solid-state lasers for the purpose of cost-e®ectively improving their safety and performance. This method based on the Conditional Value-at-Risk measure (CVaR) and the expected loss exceeding Value-at-Risk (VaR). We propose to use a new dynamical-information approach for radiation damage risk assessment of laser elements by cosmic radiation. Our approach includes the following steps: laser modeling, modeling of ionizing radiation in°uences on laser elements, probabilistic risk assessment methods, and risk minimization. For computer simulation of damage processes at microscopic and macroscopic levels the following methods are used: () statistical; (b) dynamical; (c) optimization; (d) acceleration modeling, and (e) mathematical modeling of laser functioning. Mathematical models of space ionizing radiation in°uence on laser elements were developed for risk assessment in laser safety analysis. This is a so-called `black box' or `input-output' models, which seeks only to reproduce the behaviour of the system's output in response to changes in its inputs. The model inputs are radiation in°uences on laser systems and output parameters are dynamical characteristics of the solid laser. Algorithms and software for optimal structure and parameters of

  11. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  12. Risk Analysis of UVB Exposure in Canadian Inland Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molot, L. A.; Keller, W.; Leavitt, P. R.; Robarts, R. D.; Waiser, M. J.; Arts, M. T.; Clair, T. A.; Pienitz, R.; Yan, N. D.; McNicol, D. K.; Prairie, Y.; Dillon, P. J.; Macrae, M.; Bello, R.; Nordin, R. N.; Curtis, P. J.

    2004-05-01

    Exposure to UVB (290-320 nm) harms some aquatic taxa and processes. With the restoration of pre-industrial ozone levels still some years away and the possibility that climate change might lower dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentrations and thus lead to increased exposure, evaluating the extent to which freshwater environments in Canada are at risk is warranted. First, the distribution of a UVB-sensitive zooplankton genus, Daphnia, was examined as a function of DOM and maximum depth (Zmax) in 258 lakes and ponds in Ontario and the eastern U.S. to determine whether UVB exposure restricts its distribution. Our results indicate that the distribution of Daphnia is not restricted by exposure to UVB with the possible exception of very clear, shallow systems underrepresented in the surveys. Secondly, the maximum depth of UVB transmission (the depth at which 1% of surface irradiance at 320 nm occurs, Z320,1%) was compared to Zmax in over 900 aquatic systems in different Canadian ecozones to determine the proportion of optically clear systems (Zmax< Z320,1%) and the extent to which systems that are not clear may become so (`at risk') should they lose 50% of their DOM. The proportion of systems deemed optically clear is low (<6%) across Canada with the exception of three ecozones between 13% and 20%. The proportion of systems deemed at risk is 0% in most regions with 5--9% in five regions from four ecozones. These results suggest that DOM levels are adequate to prevent large-scale loss of sensitive species from direct exposure to elevated UVB in most regions of Canada.

  13. Japanese Encephalitis Risk and Contextual Risk Factors in Southwest China: A Bayesian Hierarchical Spatial and Spatiotemporal Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Xing; Cao, Mingqin; Feng, Hai-Huan; Fan, Heng; Chen, Fei; Feng, Zijian; Li, Xiaosong; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

    2014-01-01

    It is valuable to study the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and its association with the contextual risk factors in southwest China, which is the most endemic area in China. Using data from 2004 to 2009, we applied GISmapping and spatial autocorrelation analysis to analyze reported incidence data of JE in 438 counties in southwest China, finding that JE cases were not randomly distributed, and a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model identified the east part of southwest China as a high risk area. Meanwhile, the Bayesian hierarchical spatial model in 2006 demonstrated a statistically significant association between JE and the agricultural and climatic variables, including the proportion of rural population, the pig-to-human ratio, the monthly precipitation and the monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures. Particular emphasis was placed on the time-lagged effect for climatic factors. The regression method and the Spearman correlation analysis both identified a two-month lag for the precipitation, while the regression method found a one-month lag for temperature. The results show that the high risk area in the east part of southwest China may be connected to the agricultural and climatic factors. The routine surveillance and the allocation of health resources should be given more attention in this area. Moreover, the meteorological variables might be considered as possible predictors of JE in southwest China. PMID:24739769

  14. Risk Informed Design and Analysis Criteria for Nuclear Structures

    SciTech Connect

    Salmon, Michael W.

    2015-06-17

    Target performance can be achieved by defining design basis ground motion from results of a probabilistic seismic hazards assessment, and introducing known levels of conservatism in the design above the DBE. ASCE 4, 43, DOE-STD-1020 defined the DBE at 4x10-4 and introduce only slight levels of conservatism in response. ASCE 4, 43, DOE-STD-1020 assume code capacities shoot for about 98% NEP. There is a need to have a uniform target (98% NEP) for code developers (ACI, AISC, etc.) to aim for. In considering strengthening options, one must also consider cost/risk reduction achieved.

  15. Risk analysis for dry snow slab avalanche release by skier triggering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McClung, David

    2013-04-01

    Risk analysis is of primary importance for skier triggering of avalanches since human triggering is responsible for about 90% of deaths from slab avalanches in Europe and North America. Two key measureable quantities about dry slab avalanche release prior to initiation are the depth to the weak layer and the slope angle. Both are important in risk analysis. As the slope angle increases, the probability of avalanche release increases dramatically. As the slab depth increases, the consequences increase if an avalanche releases. Among the simplest risk definitions is (Vick, 2002): Risk = (Probability of failure) x (Consequences of failure). Here, these two components of risk are the probability or chance of avalanche release and the consequences given avalanche release. In this paper, for the first time, skier triggered avalanches were analyzed from probability theory and its relation to risk for both the D and . The data consisted of two quantities : (,D) taken from avalanche fracture line profiles after an avalanche has taken place. Two data sets from accidentally skier triggered avalanches were considered: (1) 718 for and (2) a set of 1242 values of D which represent average values along the fracture line. The values of D were both estimated (about 2/3) and measured (about 1/3) by ski guides from Canadian Mountain Holidays CMH). I also analyzed 1231 accidentally skier triggered avalanches reported by CMH ski guides for avalanche size (representing destructive potential) on the Canadian scale. The size analysis provided a second analysis of consequences to verify that using D. The results showed that there is an intermediate range of both D and with highest risk. ForD, the risk (product of consequences and probability of occurrence) is highest for D in the approximate range 0.6 m - 1.0 m. The consequences are low for lower values of D and the chance of release is low for higher values of D. Thus, the highest product is in the intermediate range. For slope angles

  16. Limitations of risk analysis in the determination of medical factors in road vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Spencer, Michael B; Carter, Tim; Nicholson, Anthony N

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of risk analysis in the determination of medical factors in road vehicle accidents is to evaluate the risks that are associated with different strategies for accident reduction, so that the subsequent decision making process can be based on a best assessment of the likely benefits. However, it is vital to appreciate the limitations of such an approach, especially where the conclusions depend heavily on the accuracy of the assumptions made. In this paper the assumptions used in some recent analyses concerned with incapacitation, epilepsy, hypoglycaemia and psycho-active medication are explored, and the additional information required to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of risk indicated. The conclusions from this analysis do not invalidate the use of risk assessment, but draw attention to its limitations and show how a sensitivity analysis can help to identify those areas where more precise information is needed before such an approach can be used confidently in a policy setting. PMID:14998267

  17. Comparative risk analysis and federal environmental policy: The role of the Chemical Manufacturers Association

    SciTech Connect

    Belton, K.B.

    1994-12-31

    Trade associations play an important advocacy role in the formation of federal environmental policy. Activities are diverse: conducting and publishing research, communicating with the public, building coalitions, taking positions on legislation and regulations affecting the membership. An example is the Chemical Manufacturers Association (CMA) and its role in the debate over comparative risk analysis and its use by the US Environmental Protection Agency. In the midst of a multi-year effort to advance comparative risk analysis as an environmental policy making tool, CMA had integrated the concept into its advocacy efforts; sponsored research; kept its membership apprised of the latest advances; hosted meetings of leading experts and through leaders; and educated Members of Congress, the public, and the broader business community on the salient political issues. Future challenges relate to methodological advances, demonstrating commitment to reducing risk in accordance with comparative risk analysis, and building grassroots support.

  18. Report on the U.S. DOE Geothermal Technologies Program's 2009 Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    NREL conducted an annual program risk analysis on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program (GTP). NREL implemented a probabilistic risk analysis of GTP-sponsored research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) work, primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The analysis examined estimates of improvement potential derived from program RD&D work for two types of technology performance metric (TPM): EGS-enabling technologies potential and EGS cost improvement potential. Four risk teams (exploration, wells/pumps/tools, reservoir engineering, and power conversion) comprised of industry experts, DOE laboratory researchers, academic researchers, and laboratory subcontractors estimated the RD&D impacts and TPM-improvement probability distributions. The assessment employed a risk analysis spreadsheet add-in that uses Monte Carlo simulation to drive the Geothermal Electric Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM). The GETEM-based risk analysis used baseline data from the experts' discussion of multiple reports and data sources. Risk results are expressed in terms of each metric's units and/or the program's top-level metric: levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Results--both qualitative comments and quantitative improvement potential--are thorough and cohesive in three of the four expert groups. This conference paper summarizes the industry's current thinking on various metrics and potential for research improvement in geothermal technologies.

  19. Analysis of in vivo mutation data can inform cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Moore, Martha M; Heflich, Robert H; Haber, Lynne T; Allen, Bruce C; Shipp, Annette M; Kodell, Ralph L

    2008-07-01

    Under the new U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Cancer Risk Assessment Guidelines [U.S. EPA, 2005. Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. EPA/630/P-03/001B, March 2005], the quantitative model chosen for cancer risk assessment is based on the mode-of-action (MOA) of the chemical under consideration. In particular, the risk assessment model depends on whether or not the chemical causes tumors through a direct DNA-reactive mechanism. It is assumed that direct DNA-reactive carcinogens initiate carcinogenesis by inducing mutations and have low-dose linear dose-response curves, whereas carcinogens that operate through a nonmutagenic MOA may have nonlinear dose-responses. We are currently evaluating whether the analysis of in vivo gene mutation data can inform the risk assessment process by better defining the MOA for cancer and thus influencing the choice of the low-dose extrapolation model. This assessment includes both a temporal analysis of mutation induction and a dose-response concordance analysis of mutation with tumor incidence. Our analysis of published data on riddelliine in rats and dichloroacetic acid in mice indicates that our approach has merit. We propose an experimental design and graphical analysis that allow for assessing time-to-mutation and dose-response concordance, thereby optimizing the potential for in vivo mutation data to inform the choice of the quantitative model used in cancer risk assessment.

  20. Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ager, A.; Finney, M.

    2009-04-01

    Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and intensity maps over large areas (10,000 - 2,000,000 ha). The MTT algorithm is parallelized for multi-threaded processing and is imbedded in a number of research and applied fire modeling applications. High performance computers (e.g., 32-way 64 bit SMP) are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the 32 bit desktop FlamMap3 program (www.fire.org). Extensive testing has shown that this algorithm can replicate large fire boundaries in the heterogeneous landscapes that typify much of the wildlands in the western U.S. In this paper, we describe the application of the MTT algorithm to understand spatial patterns of burn probability (BP), and to analyze wildfire risk to key human and ecological values. The work is focused on a federally-managed 2,000,000 ha landscape in the central interior region of Oregon State, USA. The fire-prone study area encompasses a wide array of topography and fuel types and a number of highly valued resources that are susceptible to fire. We quantitatively defined risk as the product of the probability of a fire and the resulting consequence. Burn probabilities at specific intensity classes were estimated for each 100 x 100 m pixel by simulating 100,000 wildfires under burn conditions that replicated recent severe wildfire events that occurred under conditions where fire suppression was generally ineffective (97th percentile, August weather). We repeated the simulation under milder weather (70th percentile, August weather) to replicate a "wildland fire use scenario" where suppression is minimized to