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Sample records for analysis risk spar

  1. Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Methodology: Comparisons with other HRA Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Byers, James Clifford; Gertman, David Ira; Hill, Susan Gardiner; Blackman, Harold Stabler; Gentillon, Cynthia Ann; Hallbert, Bruce Perry; Haney, Lon Nolan

    2000-08-01

    The 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology was developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1994 by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). It was decided to revise that methodology for use by the Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) program. The 1994 ASP HRA methodology was compared, by a team of analysts, on a point-by-point basis to a variety of other HRA methods and sources. This paper briefly discusses how the comparisons were made and how the 1994 ASP HRA methodology was revised to incorporate desirable aspects of other methods. The revised methodology was renamed the SPAR HRA methodology.

  2. Simplified plant analysis risk (SPAR) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology: Comparisons with other HRA methods

    SciTech Connect

    J. C. Byers; D. I. Gertman; S. G. Hill; H. S. Blackman; C. D. Gentillon; B. P. Hallbert; L. N. Haney

    2000-07-31

    The 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology was developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1994 by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). It was decided to revise that methodology for use by the Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) program. The 1994 ASP HRA methodology was compared, by a team of analysts, on a point-by-point basis to a variety of other HRA methods and sources. This paper briefly discusses how the comparisons were made and how the 1994 ASP HRA methodology was revised to incorporate desirable aspects of other methods. The revised methodology was renamed the SPAR HRA methodology.

  3. SPAR reference manual. [for stress analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whetstone, W. D.

    1974-01-01

    SPAR is a system of related programs which may be operated either in batch or demand (teletype) mode. Information exchange between programs is automatically accomplished through one or more direct access libraries, known collectively as the data complex. Card input is command-oriented, in free-field form. Capabilities available in the first production release of the system are fully documented, and include linear stress analysis, linear bifurcation buckling analysis, and linear vibrational analysis.

  4. SPAR improved structure/fluid dynamic analysis capability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oden, J. T.; Pearson, M. L.

    1983-01-01

    The capability of analyzing a coupled dynamic system of flowing fluid and elastic structure was added to the SPAR computer code. A method, developed and adopted for use in SPAR utilizes the existing assumed stress hybrid plan element in SPAR. An operational mode was incorporated in SPAR which provides the capability for analyzing the flaw of a two dimensional, incompressible, viscous fluid within rigid boundaries. Equations were developed to provide for the eventual analysis of the interaction of such fluids with an elastic solid.

  5. Experiences with a preliminary NICE/SPAR structural analysis system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lotts, C. G.; Greene, W. H.

    1985-01-01

    Development of a new structural analysis system based on the original SPAR finite element code and the NICE system is described. The system is denoted NICE/SPAR. NICE was designed at Lockheed Palo Alto Research Laboratory and contains data management utilities, a command language interpreter, and a command language definition for integrating engineering computational modules. SPAR is a system of programs used for finite element structural analysis developed for NASA by Engineering Information Systems, Inc. It includes many complementary structural analysis and utility functions which communicate through a common database. The work on NICE/SPAR was motivated by requirements for a highly modular and flexible structural analysis system to use as a tool in carrying out research in computational methods and exploring new computer hardware. Analysis examples are presented which demonstrate the benefits gained from a combination of the NICE command language with the SPAR computational modules.

  6. SPAR demonstration problems. [for stress analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yen, C. L.; Moore, R. A.; Whetstone, W. D.

    1974-01-01

    A series of examples are presented to indicate some of the principal functions of the SPAR system and to illustrate SPAR's control card-data card structure. Information in the following categories is given: (1) a description of the problem and, in most cases, comparisons with analytical solutions; (2) a list of the input cards; (3) a printout of the table of contents of the direct access library into which all SPAR output was directed; and (4) a few representative plots.

  7. SPAR improved structure-fluid dynamic analysis capability, phase 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pearson, M. L.

    1984-01-01

    An efficient and general method of analyzing a coupled dynamic system of fluid flow and elastic structures is investigated. The improvement of Structural Performance Analysis and Redesign (SPAR) code is summarized. All error codes are documented and the SPAR processor/subroutine cross reference is included.

  8. SPAR data set contents. [finite element structural analysis system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cunningham, S. W.

    1981-01-01

    The contents of the stored data sets of the SPAR (space processing applications rocket) finite element structural analysis system are documented. The data generated by each of the system's processors are stored in a data file organized as a library. Each data set, containing a two-dimensional table or matrix, is identified by a four-word name listed in a table of contents. The creating SPAR processor, number of rows and columns, and definitions of each of the data items are listed for each data set. An example SPAR problem using these data sets is also presented.

  9. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for BWR Shutdown Modes 4 and 5 Integrated in SPAR Model

    SciTech Connect

    S. T. Khericha; S. Sancakter; J. Mitman; J. Wood

    2010-06-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during modes 4, 5, and 6 can be significant This paper describes development of the standard template risk evaluation models for shutdown modes 4, and 5 for commercial boiling water nuclear power plants (BWR). The shutdown probabilistic risk assessment model uses full power Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The shutdown PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from SPAR full power model with shutdown event tree logic. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheet, including the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate HEP of interest. The preliminary results indicate the risk is dominated by the operator’s ability to diagnose the events and provide long term cooling.

  10. I&C Modeling in SPAR Models

    SciTech Connect

    John A. Schroeder

    2012-06-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models for the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants currently have very limited instrumentation and control (I&C) modeling [1]. Most of the I&C components in the operating plant SPAR models are related to the reactor protection system. This was identified as a finding during the industry peer review of SPAR models. While the Emergency Safeguard Features (ESF) actuation and control system was incorporated into the Peach Bottom Unit 2 SPAR model in a recent effort [2], various approaches to expend resources for detailed I&C modeling in other SPAR models are investigated.

  11. Nonlinear coupled dynamics analysis of a truss spar platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Cheng-xi; Zhang, Jun

    2016-12-01

    Accurate prediction of the offshore structure motion response and associate mooring line tension is important in both technical applications and scientific research. In our study, a truss spar platform, operated in Gulf of Mexico, is numerically simulated and analyzed by an in-house numerical code `COUPLE'. Both the platform motion responses and associated mooring line tension are calculated and investigated through a time domain nonlinear coupled dynamic analysis. Satisfactory agreement between the simulation and corresponding field measurements is in general reached, indicating that the numerical code can be used to conduct the time-domain analysis of a truss spar interacting with its mooring and riser system. Based on the comparison between linear and nonlinear results, the relative importance of nonlinearity in predicting the platform motion response and mooring line tensions is assessed and presented. Through the coupled and quasi-static analysis, the importance of the dynamic coupling effect between the platform hull and the mooring/riser system in predicting the mooring line tension and platform motions is quantified. These results may provide essential information pertaining to facilitate the numerical simulation and design of the large scale offshore structures.

  12. Analysis of SPAR 8 single-axis levitation experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rush, J. E.; Schafer, C. F.; Holland, R. L.

    1981-01-01

    The melting and resolidification of SPAR 8 payload melting and resolidification of a glass specimen from the in a containerless condition and the retrieval and examination of the specimen from the. The absence of container contact was assured by use of a single-axis acoustic levitation system. However, the sample contacted a wire cage after being held without container contact by the acoustic field for only approximately 87 seconds. At this time, the sample was still molten and, therefore, flowed aroung the wire and continued to adhere to it. An analysis of why the sample did not remain levitated free of container contact is presented. The experiment is described, and experimental observations are discussed and analyzed.

  13. SPAR improved structural-fluid dynamic analysis capability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pearson, M. L.

    1985-01-01

    The results of a study whose objective was to improve the operation of the SPAR computer code by improving efficiency, user features, and documentation is presented. Additional capability was added to the SPAR arithmetic utility system, including trigonometric functions, numerical integration, interpolation, and matrix combinations. Improvements were made in the EIG processor. A processor was created to compute and store principal stresses in table-format data sets. An additional capability was developed and incorporated into the plot processor which permits plotting directly from table-format data sets. Documentation of all these features is provided in the form of updates to the SPAR users manual.

  14. Analytical model and stability analysis of the leading edge spar of a passively morphing ornithopter wing.

    PubMed

    Wissa, Aimy; Calogero, Joseph; Wereley, Norman; Hubbard, James E; Frecker, Mary

    2015-10-26

    This paper presents the stability analysis of the leading edge spar of a flapping wing unmanned air vehicle with a compliant spine inserted in it. The compliant spine is a mechanism that was designed to be flexible during the upstroke and stiff during the downstroke. Inserting a variable stiffness mechanism into the leading edge spar affects its structural stability. The model for the spar-spine system was formulated in terms of the well-known Mathieu's equation, in which the compliant spine was modeled as a torsional spring with a sinusoidal stiffness function. Experimental data was used to validate the model and results show agreement within 11%. The structural stability of the leading edge spar-spine system was determined analytically and graphically using a phase plane plot and Strutt diagrams. Lastly, a torsional viscous damper was added to the leading edge spar-spine model to investigate the effect of damping on stability. Results show that for the un-damped case, the leading edge spar-spine response was stable and bounded; however, there were areas of instability that appear for a range of spine upstroke and downstroke stiffnesses. Results also show that there exist a damping ratio between 0.2 and 0.5, for which the leading edge spar-spine system was stable for all values of spine upstroke and downstroke stiffnesses.

  15. Vibration analysis of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) using SPAR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edighoffer, H.

    1980-01-01

    The structural modeling of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) utilizing the SPAR system of computer programs for vibration analysis is discussed. The technical areas of interest were: (1) development of the LDEF finite element model; (2) derivation of tray effective panel stiffness matrix using finite element tray models; (3) assessment of attachment conditions and end fitting flexibility by comparing SPAR with test static displacements; (4) SPAR grouping; and (5) derivation of the LDEF frequencies and mode shapes and comparing them with tests. Special detailed finite element modeling was required to obtain good agreement between analytical and test vibration modes. An orthotropic panel in the overall model was developed. Orthotropic stiffness for this panel were obtained from finely detailed statically loaded SPAR models which included stiffness and allowed for partial relative sliding of the tray clamping attachments. Sensitivity to LDEF joint boundary conditions was determined, and static test data proved valuable in assessing modeling of local end fittings.

  16. SPAR Model Structural Efficiencies

    SciTech Connect

    John Schroeder; Dan Henry

    2013-04-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are supporting initiatives aimed at improving the quality of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Included in these initiatives are the resolution of key technical issues that are have been judged to have the most significant influence on the baseline core damage frequency of the NRC’s Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and licensee PRA models. Previous work addressed issues associated with support system initiating event analysis and loss of off-site power/station blackout analysis. The key technical issues were: • Development of a standard methodology and implementation of support system initiating events • Treatment of loss of offsite power • Development of standard approach for emergency core cooling following containment failure Some of the related issues were not fully resolved. This project continues the effort to resolve outstanding issues. The work scope was intended to include substantial collaboration with EPRI; however, EPRI has had other higher priority initiatives to support. Therefore this project has addressed SPAR modeling issues. The issues addressed are • SPAR model transparency • Common cause failure modeling deficiencies and approaches • Ac and dc modeling deficiencies and approaches • Instrumentation and control system modeling deficiencies and approaches

  17. Analysis of 2-spar cantilever wings with special reference to torsion and load transference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhn, Paul

    1936-01-01

    This report deals with the analysis of 2-spar cantilever wings in torsion, taking cognizance of the fact that the spars are not independent, but are interconnected by ribs and other structural members. The principles of interaction are briefly explained, showing that the mutual relief action occurring depends on the "pure torsional stiffness" of the wing cross section. Various practical methods of analysis are outlined. The "Friedrichs-Von Karman equations" are shown to require the least amount of labor. Numerical examples by the several methods of analysis are given and the agreement between the calculation and experiment is shown.

  18. SPAR data handling utilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giles, G. L.; Haftka, R. T.

    1978-01-01

    The SPAR computer software system is a collection of processors that perform particular steps in the finite-element structural analysis procedure. The data generated by each processor are stored on a data base complex residing on an auxiliary storage device, and these data are then used by subsequent processors. The SPAR data handling utilities use routines to transfer data between the processors and the data base complex. A detailed description of the data base complex organization is presented. A discussion of how these SPAR data handling utilities are used in an application program to perform desired user functions is given with the steps necessary to convert an existing program to a SPAR processor by incorporating these utilities. Finally, a sample SPAR processor is included to illustrate the use of the data handling utilities.

  19. Aeroelastic airfoil smart spar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhalgh, Skott; Pastore, Christopher M.; Garfinkle, Moishe

    1993-01-01

    Aircraft wings and rotor-blades are subject to undesirable bending and twisting excursions that arise from unsteady aerodynamic forces during high speed flight, abrupt maneuvers, or hard landings. These bending excursions can range in amplitude from wing-tip flutter to failure. A continuous-filament construction 'smart' laminated composite box-beam spar is described which corrects itself when subject to undesirable bending excursions or flutter. The load-bearing spar is constructed so that any tendency for the wing or rotor-blade to bend from its normal position is met by opposite twisting of the spar to restore the wing to its normal position. Experimental and theoretical characterization of these spars was made to evaluate the torsion-flexure coupling associated with symmetric lay-ups. The materials used were uniweave AS-4 graphite and a matrix comprised of Shell 8132 resin and U-40 hardener. Experimental tests were conducted on five spars to determine spar twist and bend as a function of load for 0, 17, 30, 45 and 60 deg fiber angle lay-ups. Symmetric fiber lay-ups do exhibit torsion-flexure couplings. Predictions of the twist and bend versus load were made for different fiber orientations in laminated spars using a spline function structural analysis. The analytical results were compared with experimental results for validation. Excellent correlation between experimental and analytical values was found.

  20. An integrated structural strength analysis method for Spar type floating wind turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Zhi-qiang; Liu, Yi; Wang, Jin

    2016-04-01

    An integrated structural strength analysis method for a Spar type floating wind turbine is proposed in this paper, and technical issues related to turbine structure modeling and stress combination are also addressed. The NREL-5MW "Hywind" Spar type wind turbine is adopted as study object. Time-domain dynamic coupled simulations are performed by a fully-coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool, FAST, on the purpose of obtaining the dynamic characteristics of the floating wind turbine, and determining parameters for design load cases of finite element calculation. Then design load cases are identified, and finite element analyses are performed for these design load cases. The structural stresses due to wave-induced loads and wind-induced loads are calculated, and then combined to assess the structural strength of the floating wind turbine. The feasibility of the proposed structural strength analysis method for floating wind turbines is then validated.

  1. Proposed SPAR Modeling Method for Quantifying Time Dependent Station Blackout Cut Sets

    SciTech Connect

    John A. Schroeder

    2010-06-01

    Abstract: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (USNRC’s) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and industry risk models take similar approaches to analyzing the risk associated with loss of offsite power and station blackout (LOOP/SBO) events at nuclear reactor plants. In both SPAR models and industry models, core damage risk resulting from a LOOP/SBO event is analyzed using a combination of event trees and fault trees that produce cut sets that are, in turn, quantified to obtain a numerical estimate of the resulting core damage risk. A proposed SPAR method for quantifying the time-dependent cut sets is sometimes referred to as a convolution method. The SPAR method reflects assumptions about the timing of emergency diesel failures, the timing of subsequent attempts at emergency diesel repair, and the timing of core damage that may be different than those often used in industry models. This paper describes the proposed SPAR method.

  2. The NRC's SPAR Models: Current Status, Future Development, and Modeling Issues

    SciTech Connect

    Robert F. Buell

    2008-09-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) play an increasingly important role in the regulatory framework of the U.S. nuclear power industry. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) relies on a set of plant-specific Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models to provide critical risk-based input to the regulatory process. The Significance Determination Process (SDP), Management Directive 8.3 - NRC Incident Investigation Program, Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) and Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) programs are among the regulatory initiatives that receive significant input from the SPAR models. Other uses of the SPAR models include: Screening & Resolution of Generic Safety Issues, License Amendment reviews and Notice of Enforcement Discretion (NOEDs). This paper presents the current status of SPAR model development activities, future development objectives, and issues related to the development, verification and maintenance of the SPAR models.

  3. Dynamic testing and analysis of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lake, Renee C.; Izapanah, Amir P.; Baucon, Robert M.

    1992-01-01

    The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist elastic coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars, representative of the primary load carrying structure within a helicopter rotor blade, was manufactured using four plies of woven graphite/epoxy cloth 'prepreg.' These spars were non-circular in cross section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three cross-sectional geometries were developed: square, D-shape, and flattened ellipse. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models developed in MSC/NASTRAN. Five global or 'non-shell' modes were identified within the 0-2000 Hz range for each spar. The frequencies and associated mode shapes for the D-shape spar were correlated with analytical results, showing agreement within 13.8 percent. Frequencies corresponding to the five global mode shapes for the square spar agreed within 9.5 percent of the analytical results. Five global modes were similarly identified for the elliptical spar and agreed within 4.9 percent of the respective analytical results.

  4. Dynamic testing and analysis of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lake, Renee C.; Izapanah, Amir P.; Baucon, Robert M.

    The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist elastic coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars, representative of the primary load carrying structure within a helicopter rotor blade, was manufactured using four plies of woven graphite/epoxy cloth 'prepreg.' These spars were non-circular in cross section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three cross-sectional geometries were developed: square, D-shape, and flattened ellipse. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models developed in MSC/NASTRAN. Five global or 'non-shell' modes were identified within the 0-2000 Hz range for each spar. The frequencies and associated mode shapes for the D-shape spar were correlated with analytical results, showing agreement within 13.8 percent. Frequencies corresponding to the five global mode shapes for the square spar agreed within 9.5 percent of the analytical results. Five global modes were similarly identified for the elliptical spar and agreed within 4.9 percent of the respective analytical results.

  5. Substructure analysis using NICE/SPAR and applications of force to linear and nonlinear structures. [spacecraft masts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Razzaq, Zia; Prasad, Venkatesh; Darbhamulla, Siva Prasad; Bhati, Ravinder; Lin, Cai

    1987-01-01

    Parallel computing studies are presented for a variety of structural analysis problems. Included are the substructure planar analysis of rectangular panels with and without a hole, the static analysis of space mast, using NICE/SPAR and FORCE, and substructure analysis of plane rigid-jointed frames using FORCE. The computations are carried out on the Flex/32 MultiComputer using one to eighteen processors. The NICE/SPAR runstream samples are documented for the panel problem. For the substructure analysis of plane frames, a computer program is developed to demonstrate the effectiveness of a substructuring technique when FORCE is enforced. Ongoing research activities for an elasto-plastic stability analysis problem using FORCE, and stability analysis of the focus problem using NICE/SPAR are briefly summarized. Speedup curves for the panel, the mast, and the frame problems provide a basic understanding of the effectiveness of parallel computing procedures utilized or developed, within the domain of the parameters considered. Although the speedup curves obtained exhibit various levels of computational efficiency, they clearly demonstrate the excellent promise which parallel computing holds for the structural analysis problem. Source code is given for the elasto-plastic stability problem and the FORCE program.

  6. Study of composite wind turbine spars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zafar, Syed Shahrukh

    This report presents a theoretical, numerical and experimental study of composite wind turbine spars under bending loads. Spars were made from commercially available glass/ carbon fiber material. The spars were composed of uniaxial (0°) flanges and biaxial (+/-45°) shear webs. Items of particular study were co-block polymer additives in vinyl ester resins, a presumably new spar design, and using carbon fiber pultrusions for spar caps (flanges). Composites are very strong and thus tend to be thin, which exacerbates the problem of buckling. Further, fibers also buckle at the micro level, leading to lower effective compression strength than tensile strength of a composite. Many structures tend to buckle in out of plane direction which can cause early and abrupt failure. A 3-point bend test rig was manufactured in-house for experimentally testing composite spars. The experiments indicated abrupt failure without any sign or other form of damage. Limited number of spars was made with slightly different construction. All spars were subjected to same testing environment. Finite element analyses were performed in order to shed light on the failure mechanisms leading to catastrophic failure. The FE code Ansys was used for the analyses. 3D models were developed, loads were applied, and linear elastic static as well as buckling analyses were performed. The results obtained from analysis were in reasonable agreement with the experimental tests.

  7. The Origins of the SPAR-H Method's Performance Shaping Factor Multipliers

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; Harold S. Blackman

    2007-08-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method has proved to be a reliable, easy-to-use method for human reliability analysis. Calculation of human error probability (HEP) rates is especially straightforward, starting with pre-defined nominal error rates for cognitive vs. action oriented tasks, and incorporating performance shaping factor (PSF) multipliers upon those nominal error rates. SPAR-H uses eight PSFs with multipliers typically corresponding to nominal, degraded, and severely degraded human performance for individual PSFs. Additionally, some PSFs feature multipliers to reflect enhanced performance. Although SPAR-H enjoys widespread use among industry and regulators, current source documents on SPAR-H such as NUREG/CR-6883 do not provide a clear account of the origin of these multipliers. The present paper redresses this shortcoming and documents the historic development of the SPAR-H PSF multipliers, from the initial use of nominal error rates, to the selection of the eight PSFs, to the mapping of multipliers to available data sources such as a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). Where error rates were not readily derived from THERP and other sources, expert judgment was used to extrapolate appropriate values. In documenting key background information on the multipliers, this paper provides a much needed cross-reference for human reliability practitioners and researchers of SPAR-H to validate analyses and research findings.

  8. SPAR thermal analysis processors reference manual, system level 16. Volume 1: Program executive. Volume 2: Theory. Volume 3: Demonstration problems. Volume 4: Experimental thermal element capability. Volume 5: Programmer reference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marlowe, M. B.; Moore, R. A.; Whetstone, W. D.

    1979-01-01

    User instructions are given for performing linear and nonlinear steady state and transient thermal analyses with SPAR thermal analysis processors TGEO, SSTA, and TRTA. It is assumed that the user is familiar with basic SPAR operations and basic heat transfer theory.

  9. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    SciTech Connect

    April M. Whaley; Dana L. Kelly; Ronald L. Boring; William J. Galyean

    2012-06-01

    Step-by-step guidance was developed recently at Idaho National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission on the use of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This work was done to address SPAR-H user needs, specifically requests for additional guidance on the proper application of various aspects of the methodology. This paper overviews the steps of the SPAR-H analysis process and highlights some of the most important insights gained during the development of the step-by-step directions. This supplemental guidance for analysts is applicable when plant-specific information is available, and goes beyond the general guidance provided in existing SPAR-H documentation. The steps highlighted in this paper are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff.

  10. Peer Review of NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect

    Anthony Koonce; James Knudsen; Robert Buell

    2011-03-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Models underwent a Peer Review using ASME PRA standard (Addendum C) as endorsed by NRC in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.200. The review was performed by a mix of industry probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) experts and NRC PRA experts. Representative SPAR models, one PWR and one BWR, were reviewed against Capability Category I of the ASME PRA standard. Capability Category I was selected as the basis for review due to the specific uses/applications of the SPAR models. The BWR SPAR model was reviewed against 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements; however, based on the Capability Category I level of review and the absence of internal flooding and containment performance (LERF) logic only 216 requirements were determined to be applicable. Based on the review, the BWR SPAR model met 139 of the 216 supporting requirements. The review also generated 200 findings or suggestions. Of these 200 findings and suggestions 142 were findings and 58 were suggestions. The PWR SPAR model was also evaluated against the same 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements. Of these requirements only 215 were deemed appropriate for the review (for the same reason as noted for the BWR). The PWR review determined that 125 of the 215 supporting requirements met Capability Category I or greater. The review identified 101 findings or suggestions (76 findings and 25 suggestions). These findings or suggestions were developed to identify areas where SPAR models could be enhanced. A process to prioritize and incorporate the findings/suggestions supporting requirements into the SPAR models is being developed. The prioritization process focuses on those findings that will enhance the accuracy, completeness and usability of the SPAR models.

  11. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    SciTech Connect

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  12. Sparring and Neurological Function in Professional Boxers

    PubMed Central

    Stiller, John W.; Yu, Steven S.; Brenner, Lisa A.; Langenberg, Patricia; Scrofani, Phillip; Pannella, Patrick; Hsu, Edbert B.; Roberts, Darryl W.; Monsell, Ray M. T.; Binks, Sidney W.; Guzman, Alvaro; Postolache, Teodor T.

    2014-01-01

    Despite increased interest regarding the potentially long-term negative impact of chronic traumatic brain injury, limited research has been conducted regarding such injuries and neurological outcomes in real world settings. To increase understanding regarding the relationship between sparring (e.g., training under the tutelage of an experienced boxing coach for the purpose of improving skills and/or fitness) and neurological functioning, professional boxers (n = 237) who competed in Maryland between 2003 and 2008 completed measures regarding sparring exposure (Cumulative Sparring Index, CSI) and performance on tests of cognition (Symbol Digit Modalities Test, SDMT) and balance (Sharpened Romberg Test, SRT). Measures were completed prior to boxing matches. Higher scores on the CSI (increased sparring exposure) were associated with poorer performance on both tests of cognition (SDMT) and balance (SRT). A threshold effect was noted regarding performance on the SDMT, with those reporting CSI values greater than about 150 experiencing a decline in cognition. A history of frequent and/or intense sparring may pose a significant risk for developing boxing associated neurological sequelae. Implementing administration of clinically meaningful tests before bouts, such as the CSI, SDMT, and/or the SRT, as well as documentation of results into the boxer’s physicals or medical profiles may be an important step for improving boxing safety. PMID:25101253

  13. Sparring and neurological function in professional boxers.

    PubMed

    Stiller, John W; Yu, Steven S; Brenner, Lisa A; Langenberg, Patricia; Scrofani, Phillip; Pannella, Patrick; Hsu, Edbert B; Roberts, Darryl W; Monsell, Ray M T; Binks, Sidney W; Guzman, Alvaro; Postolache, Teodor T

    2014-01-01

    Despite increased interest regarding the potentially long-term negative impact of chronic traumatic brain injury, limited research has been conducted regarding such injuries and neurological outcomes in real world settings. To increase understanding regarding the relationship between sparring (e.g., training under the tutelage of an experienced boxing coach for the purpose of improving skills and/or fitness) and neurological functioning, professional boxers (n = 237) who competed in Maryland between 2003 and 2008 completed measures regarding sparring exposure (Cumulative Sparring Index, CSI) and performance on tests of cognition (Symbol Digit Modalities Test, SDMT) and balance (Sharpened Romberg Test, SRT). Measures were completed prior to boxing matches. Higher scores on the CSI (increased sparring exposure) were associated with poorer performance on both tests of cognition (SDMT) and balance (SRT). A threshold effect was noted regarding performance on the SDMT, with those reporting CSI values greater than about 150 experiencing a decline in cognition. A history of frequent and/or intense sparring may pose a significant risk for developing boxing associated neurological sequelae. Implementing administration of clinically meaningful tests before bouts, such as the CSI, SDMT, and/or the SRT, as well as documentation of results into the boxer's physicals or medical profiles may be an important step for improving boxing safety.

  14. Analysis of genetic variation in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) genotypes with various agronomical traits using SPAR methods.

    PubMed

    Satish, Lakkakula; Shilpha, Jayabalan; Pandian, Subramani; Rency, Arockiam Sagina; Rathinapriya, Periyasamy; Ceasar, Stanislaus Antony; Largia, Muthiah Joe Virgin; Kumar, Are Ashok; Ramesh, Manikandan

    2016-01-15

    Genetic variation among 45 genotypes of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) representing seven subpopulations was assessed using three single primer amplification reaction (SPAR) methods viz., inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR), random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and directed amplification of minisatellite-region DNA (DAMD). Totally 15 ISSR, 8 RAPD and 7 DAMD primers generated 263 amplification products, accounting for 84.6% polymorphism across all the genotypes. The Mantel's test of correlation revealed the best correlation between ISSR and cumulative data with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.84. Assessment of population diversity indicated that the maximum intra population genetic diversity was recorded among high FeZn lines (HFL) having maximum values of Nei's genetic diversity (h) (0.244), Shannon information index (I) (0.368) and the percentage of polymorphic loci (Pp) (72.65%) while the corresponding lowest values of 0.074, 0.109 and 17.95% respectively were observed among the members of MDT subpopulation. The mean coefficient of gene differentiation (GST) and the gene flow (Nm) between populations were observed to be 0.396 and 0.7680 respectively. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) suggested that maximum genetic variation exists within populations (95%) than among populations (5%). Thus the information obtained from this study could be utilized in sorghum breeding programmes for the development of varieties with improved nutrition and agronomic values in future.

  15. Metal-truss wing spars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swickard, Andrew E

    1931-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to develop improvements in the current methods for the calculation of the loads in members of metal truss wing spars which are subjected to combined bending and compression. The theory developed here has two important practical applications. One is the calculation of the effective moment of inertia of a truss spar from the geometry of the spar and the loads to which the spar is to be subjected. The second is the determination of the most economical location of metal for stiffening a truss spar which has too much deflection.

  16. SPAR reference manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whetstone, W. D.

    1976-01-01

    The functions and operating rules of the SPAR system, which is a group of computer programs used primarily to perform stress, buckling, and vibrational analyses of linear finite element systems, were given. The following subject areas were discussed: basic information, structure definition, format system matrix processors, utility programs, static solutions, stresses, sparse matrix eigensolver, dynamic response, graphics, and substructure processors.

  17. Two-dimensional finite element analysis of rectangular panel with hole using NICE/SPAR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Razzaq, Zia; Prasad, Venkatesh; Darbhamulla, Siva Prasad

    1987-01-01

    A panel 30 in. long, 11.5 in. wide, with a 2.0 in. diameter hole at the center is analyzed. Since a two-dimensional analysis is conducted, the thickness of the panel is taken as unity. Owing to the symmetry, it is sufficient to analyze only one fourth of the panel with appropriate boundary conditions.

  18. Physiological Responses and Time-Motion Analysis of Small Combat Games in Kickboxing: Impact of Ring Size and Number of Within-Round Sparring Partners.

    PubMed

    Ouergui, Ibrahim; Houcine, Nizar; Marzouki, Hamza; Davis, Philip; Franchini, Emerson; Gmada, Nabil; Bouhlel, Ezzedine

    2017-07-01

    Ouergui, I, Houcine, N, Marzouki, H, Davis, P, Franchini, E, Gmada, N, and Bouhlel, E. Physiological responses and time-motion analysis of small combat games in kickboxing: impact of ring size and number of within-round sparring partners. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1840-1846, 2017-The study aimed to investigate the physiological responses and time-structure of small combat games (SCGs) in kickboxing according to ring sizes and number of sparring partners. Twenty athletes from regional (n = 13) and national levels (n = 7) participated in the study (mean ± SD, age: 20.3 ± 0.9 years; height: 177 ± 4.8 cm; body mass: 71.8 ± 10.5 kg). Blood lactate concentration [La] was measured before and after bouts, and the delta (Δ) was determined. Heart rate (HR) was measured throughout and HR and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) were also measured postbout. The HRpre, HRmean, and percentage of peak HR (%HRpeak) were used for analysis. The HRpeak was determined during a cycle ergometer graded exercise test. Each athlete was confronted by 1 (1 vs. 1; no sparring partner change), 2 (1 vs. 2) and 4 opponents (1 vs. 4) within-round (sparring partner change every 1 minute or 30 seconds, respectively) in different ring sizes (i.e., 2×2 m, 4×4 m, and 6×6 m). All combats were recorded and analyzed to determine the duration of different activity phases (high-intensity activities [HIA], low-intensity actions [LIA], and referee pause [P]). Results showed that values for HRpre and HRmean when opposed by a single individual (1 vs. 1) were lower than other conditions (all p < 0.001). Moreover, %HRpeak values in 1 vs. 1 were lower than in other conditions and higher in 4 × 4 m compared with other sizes. [La]pre, post, and the Δ did not differ among all conditions (p > 0.05). The RPE scores were lower in 1 vs. 1 compared with other conditions (p < 0.001), with no ring sizes effect (p > 0.05). For time-motion variables, HIA values were lower in 1 vs. 1 than in the 2 other conditions

  19. Stress Analysis of Outer Wing Bulkheads and Auxiliary Spar - Model YB-36 and B-36A

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1947-04-01

    IVr) 500’ _ #.11 LAA (I I-)f lJ HA A (.5000) FW 444 G-46 UTILITY REPOIRT SHEEF • ’ Ii ANALYS3IS.. WI N4 Consli~datigd Vulten Aircraft Iorporati an...REPORT SHEEF ANALYSIS V I PCE 4-lq ANALYSIS W •/•-r•--"•’ Cnusolidated Valtee Aircraft Curpnualiln A . . PREPAREDB Cu urw4 I u~T~t- JOBSI REPORT No.VL...YJ I 4 w-v 7L~-c~s~1 -F ~J ¾NW4 C41 7A/d.) 64-C~? ?sZ).C14,s’ FW 444 6-46 UTILITY REPORT SHEEF 7 ANLSSWINIG PAGE - PREAPD Y OL Euiisnlidated Vuhlee

  20. Guidance on Dependence Assessment in SPAR-H

    SciTech Connect

    April M. Whaley

    2012-06-01

    As part of the effort to develop the SPAR-H user guidance, particular attention was paid to the assessment of dependence in order to address user questions about proper application of dependence. This paper presents a discussion of dependence from a psychological perspective and provides guidance on applying this information during the qualitative analysis of dependence to ensure more realistic and appropriate dependence assessments with the SPAR-H method. While this guidance was developed with SPAR-H in mind, it may be informative to other human reliability analysis methods that also use a THERP-based dependence approach, particularly if applied at the human failure event level.

  1. Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) project: SPAR 10

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poorman, R.

    1986-08-01

    The Space Processing Applications Rocket Project (SPAR) X Final Report contains the compilation of the post-flight reports from each of the Principal Investigators (PIs) on the four selected science payloads, in addition to the engineering report as documented by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). This combined effort also describes pertinent portions of ground-based research leading to the ultimate selection of the flight sample composition, including design, fabrication and testing, all of which are expected to contribute to an improved comprehension of materials processing in space. The SPAR project was coordinated and managed by MSFC as part of the Microgravity Science and Applications (MSA) program of the Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) of NASA Headquarters. This technical memorandum is directed entirely to the payload manifest flown in the tenth of a series of SPAR flights conducted at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) and includes the experiments entitled, Containerless Processing Technology, SPAR Experiment 76-20/3; Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites, SPAR Experiment 76-22/3; Comparative Alloy Solidification, SPAR Experiment 76-36/3; and Foam Copper, SPAR Experiment 77-9/1R.

  2. Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) project: SPAR 10

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poorman, R. (Compiler)

    1986-01-01

    The Space Processing Applications Rocket Project (SPAR) X Final Report contains the compilation of the post-flight reports from each of the Principal Investigators (PIs) on the four selected science payloads, in addition to the engineering report as documented by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). This combined effort also describes pertinent portions of ground-based research leading to the ultimate selection of the flight sample composition, including design, fabrication and testing, all of which are expected to contribute to an improved comprehension of materials processing in space. The SPAR project was coordinated and managed by MSFC as part of the Microgravity Science and Applications (MSA) program of the Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) of NASA Headquarters. This technical memorandum is directed entirely to the payload manifest flown in the tenth of a series of SPAR flights conducted at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) and includes the experiments entitled, Containerless Processing Technology, SPAR Experiment 76-20/3; Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites, SPAR Experiment 76-22/3; Comparative Alloy Solidification, SPAR Experiment 76-36/3; and Foam Copper, SPAR Experiment 77-9/1R.

  3. Apollo Telescope Mount Spar Assembly

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1969-01-01

    The Apollo Telescope Mount (ATM), designed and developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center, served as the primary scientific instrument unit aboard the Skylab. The ATM contained eight complex astronomical instruments designed to observe the Sun over a wide spectrum from visible light to x-rays. This image shows the ATM spar assembly. All solar telescopes, the fine Sun sensors, and some auxiliary systems are mounted on the spar, a cruciform lightweight perforated metal mounting panel that divides the 10-foot long canister lengthwise into four equal compartments. The spar assembly was nested inside a cylindrical canister that fit into the rack, a complex frame, and was protected by the solar shield.

  4. Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) project, SPAR 9

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poorman, R. (Compiler)

    1984-01-01

    SPAR 9 (R-17) payload configuration, rocket performance, payload support, science payload instrumentation, and payload recovery are discussed. Directional solidification of magnetic composites, directional solidification of immiscible aluminum-indium alloys, and comparative alloy solidification experiments are reported.

  5. Space Processing Application Rocket project, SPAR 5

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F. (Compiler); Schaefer, D. (Compiler)

    1980-01-01

    Post flight results and analysis are presented on the following experiments: 'Agglomeration in Immiscible Liquids', 'Contained Polycrystalline Solidification in Low G', 'The Direct Observation of Dendrite Remelting and Macrosegregation in Casting', and 'Uniform Dispersion by Crystallization'. An engineering report on the performance of the SPAR Black Brant rocket is also included. Much useful data and information were accumulated for directing and developing experimental techniques and investigations toward an expanding commercially beneficial program of materials processing in the coming shuttle era.

  6. HUMAN ERROR QUANTIFICATION USING PERFORMANCE SHAPING FACTORS IN THE SPAR-H METHOD

    SciTech Connect

    Harold S. Blackman; David I. Gertman; Ronald L. Boring

    2008-09-01

    This paper describes a cognitively based human reliability analysis (HRA) quantification technique for estimating the human error probabilities (HEPs) associated with operator and crew actions at nuclear power plants. The method described here, Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method, was developed to aid in characterizing and quantifying human performance at nuclear power plants. The intent was to develop a defensible method that would consider all factors that may influence performance. In the SPAR-H approach, calculation of HEP rates is especially straightforward, starting with pre-defined nominal error rates for cognitive vs. action-oriented tasks, and incorporating performance shaping factor multipliers upon those nominal error rates.

  7. SPAR reference manual update SPAR level 15

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whetstone, W. D.

    1980-01-01

    Command runstream elements are presented for analyzing structural systems that are composed of a number of cyclically symmetrical sectors. Provisions are included for systems in which each cyclically symmetrical sector also possesses a plane of reflective symmetry. The following types of analysis may be performed: static analysis with and without preload, vibrational analysis with and without preload, and buckling analysis with and without preload.

  8. A concept study of a carbon spar cap design for a 80m wind turbine blade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosemeier, M.; Bätge, M.

    2014-06-01

    The buckling resistance is a key design driver for large wind turbine blades with a significant influence on the material costs. During the structural design process the choice was made for carbon spar caps and two shear webs, which were set relatively far apart in order to stabilize the panels. This design presented a major challenge for the stability of the spar caps. The topology of these spar caps has been modified with regard to stability, comparing a continuous spar cap with split spar cap concepts and considering both lay-ups with hybrid carbon glass spar caps or sandwich concepts. Within those concepts, parametric studies were conducted varying different geometrical parameters of the spar caps and its layups. In order to determine the buckling resistance of the spar cap, an analytical model considering a 2D cross section discretized blade model was utilized to select the basic concept, after which a 3D numerical finite element model taking the whole blade into account was used to evaluate the chosen design concepts. The stability limit state analysis was conducted according to the certification scheme of GL guideline 2012. The various concepts were evaluated based on the blade's mass, tip deflection and modal properties. The results of this design process of the spar caps and the evaluation of the used analysis tools are presented within the paper.

  9. Turbine blade with spar and shell

    DOEpatents

    Davies, Daniel O [Palm City, FL; Peterson, Ross H [Loxahatchee, FL

    2012-04-24

    A turbine blade with a spar and shell construction in which the spar and the shell are both secured within two platform halves. The spar and the shell each include outward extending ledges on the bottom ends that fit within grooves formed on the inner sides of the platform halves to secure the spar and the shell against radial movement when the two platform halves are joined. The shell is also secured to the spar by hooks extending from the shell that slide into grooves formed on the outer surface of the spar. The hooks form a serpentine flow cooling passage between the shell and the spar. The spar includes cooling holes on the lower end in the leading edge region to discharge cooling air supplied through the platform root and into the leading edge cooling channel.

  10. Full time-domain nonlinear coupled dynamic analysis of a truss spar and its mooring/riser system in irregular wave

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, MinDong; Teng, Bin; Xiao, LongFei; Ning, DeZhi; Shi, ZhongMin; Qu, Yan

    2014-01-01

    A new full time-domain nonlinear coupled method has been established and then applied to predict the responses of a Truss Spar in irregular wave. For the coupled analysis, a second-order time-domain approach is developed to calculate the wave forces, and a finite element model based on rod theory is established in three dimensions in a global coordinate system. In numerical implementation, the higher-order boundary element method (HOBEM) is employed to solve the velocity potential, and the 4th-order Adams-Bashforth-Moultn scheme is used to update the second-order wave surface. In deriving convergent solutions, the hull displacements and mooring tensions are kept consistent at the fairlead and the motion equations of platform and mooring-lines/risers are solved simultaneously using Newmark- β integration scheme including Newton-Raphson iteration. Both the coupled quasi-static analysis and the coupled dynamic analysis are performed. The numerical simulation results are also compared with the model test results, and they coincide very well as a whole. The slow-drift responses can be clearly observed in the time histories of displacements and mooring tensions. Some important characteristics of the coupled responses are concluded.

  11. Data-driven initialization of SParSE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roh, Min K.; Proctor, Joshua L.

    2017-07-01

    Despite the ever-increasing affordability and availability of high performance computing platforms, computational analysis of stochastic biochemical systems remains an open problem. A recently developed event-based parameter estimation method, the stochastic parameter search for events (SParSE), is able to efficiently sample reaction rate parameter values that confer a user-specified target event with a given probability and error tolerance. Despite the substantial computational savings, the efficiency of SParSE can be further improved by intelligently generating new initial parameter sets based on previously computed trajectories. In this article, we propose a principled method which combines the efficiencies of SParSE with these geometric machine-learning methods to generate new initial parameters based on the previously collected data.

  12. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  13. Pulsed eddy current inspection of CF-188 inner wing spar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horan, Peter Francis

    Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) CF-188 Hornet aircraft engineering authorities have stated a requirement for a Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) technique to detect Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) in the inner wing spars without fastener or composite wing skin removal. Current radiographic inspections involve significant aircraft downtime, and Pulsed Eddy Current (PEC) inspection is proposed as a solution. The aluminum inner wing spars of CF-188 Hornet aircraft may undergo stress corrosion cracking (SCC) along the spar between the fasteners that secure carbon-fiber/ epoxy composite skin to the wing. Inspection of the spar through the wing skin is required to avoid wing disassembly. The thickness of the wing skin varies between 8 and 20 mm (0.3 to 0.8 inch) and fasteners may be either titanium or ferrous. PEC generated by a probe centered over a fastener, demonstrates capability of detecting simulated cracks within spars with the wing skin present. Comparison of signals from separate sensors, mounted to either side of the excitation coil, is used to detect differences in induced eddy current fields, which arise in the presence of cracks. To overcome variability in PEC signal response due to variation in 1) skin thickness, 2) fastener material and size, and 3) centering over fasteners, a large calibration data set is acquired. Multi-dimensional scores from a Modified Principal Components Analysis (PCA) of the data are reduced to one dimension (1D) using a Discriminant Analysis method. Under inspection conditions, calibrated PCA scores combined with discriminant analysis permit rapid real time go/no-go PEC detection of cracks in CF-188 inner wing spar. Probe designs using both pickup coils and Giant Magnetoresistive (GMR) sensors were tested on samples with the same ferrous and titanium fasteners found on the CF-188. Flaws were correctly detected at lift-offs of up to 21mm utilizing a variety of insulating skin materials simulating the carbon-fibre reinforced polymer

  14. ITRB Spar Domestic Source

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-12-14

    6  Figure 4 Cobham Laminate Design...fiber/resin combination was selected for final laminate design and FEA analysis. Table 2 Fiber Candidate Matrix Type E (mpsi) UTS (kpsi) Source...NA NA NA 14.5 11.46 414 5 NA NA NA NA NA 27.8* NA NA NA NA NA NA 7.2* NA NA NA 86* NA NA NA Laminate  made with 7781 glass PR520 One Epoxy 6 0 NA NA

  15. Space processing applications rocket project. SPAR 8

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chassay, R. P. (Editor)

    1984-01-01

    The Space Processing Applications Rocket Project (SPAR) VIII Final Report contains the engineering report prepared at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) as well as the three reports from the principal investigators. These reports also describe pertinent portions of ground-based research leading to the ultimate selection of the flight sample composition, including design, fabrication, and testing, all of which are expected to contribute immeasurably to an improved comprehension of materials processing in space. This technical memorandum is directed entirely to the payload manifest flown in the eighth of a series of SPAR flights conducted at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) and includes the experiments entitled Glass Formation Experiment SPAR 74-42/1R, Glass Fining Experiment in Low-Gravity SPAR 77-13/1, and Dynamics of Liquid Bubbles SPAR Experiment 77-18/2.

  16. Space processing applications rocket project. SPAR 8

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chassay, R. P.

    1984-06-01

    The Space Processing Applications Rocket Project (SPAR) VIII Final Report contains the engineering report prepared at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) as well as the three reports from the principal investigators. These reports also describe pertinent portions of ground-based research leading to the ultimate selection of the flight sample composition, including design, fabrication, and testing, all of which are expected to contribute immeasurably to an improved comprehension of materials processing in space. This technical memorandum is directed entirely to the payload manifest flown in the eighth of a series of SPAR flights conducted at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) and includes the experiments entitled Glass Formation Experiment SPAR 74-42/1R, Glass Fining Experiment in Low-Gravity SPAR 77-13/1, and Dynamics of Liquid Bubbles SPAR Experiment 77-18/2.

  17. Buckling Tests with a Spar-rib Grill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinhold, Josef

    1940-01-01

    The present report deals with a comparison of mathematically and experimentally defined buckling loads of a spar-rib grill, on the assumption of constant spar section, and infinitely closely spaced ribs with rigidity symmetrical to the grill center. The loads are applied as equal bending moments at both spar ends, as compression in the line connecting the joints, and in the spar center line as the assumedly uniformly distributed spar weight.

  18. Design, Manufacture and Testing of A Bend-Twist D-Spar

    SciTech Connect

    Ong, Cheng-Huat; Tsai, Stephen W.

    1999-06-01

    Studies have indicated that an adaptive wind turbine blade design can significantly enhance the performance of the wind turbine blade on energy capture and load mitigation. In order to realize the potential benefits of aeroelastic tailoring, a bend-twist D-spar, which is the backbone of a blade, was designed and fabricated to achieve the objectives of having maximum bend-twist coupling and fulfilling desirable structural properties (031 & GJ). Two bend-twist D-spars, a hybrid of glass and carbon fibers and an all-carbon D-spar, were fabricated using a bladder process. One of the D-spars, the hybrid D-spar, was subjected to a cantilever static test and modal testing. Various parameters such as materials, laminate schedule, thickness and internal rib were examined in designing a bend-twist D-spar. The fabrication tooling, the lay-up process and the joint design for two symmetric clamshells are described in this report. Finally, comparisons between the experimental test results and numerical results are presented. The comparisons indicate that the numerical analysis (static and modal analysis) agrees well with test results.

  19. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    SciTech Connect

    W. J. Galyean; A. M. Whaley; D. L. Kelly; R. L. Boring

    2011-05-01

    This guide provides step-by-step guidance on the use of the SPAR-H method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This guide is intended to be used with the worksheets provided in: 'The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method,' NUREG/CR-6883, dated August 2005. Each step in the process of producing a Human Error Probability (HEP) is discussed. These steps are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff. The discussions on dependence are extensive and include an appendix that describes insights obtained from the psychology literature.

  20. Design study of prestressed rotor spar concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gleich, D.

    1980-01-01

    Studies on the Bell Helicopter 540 Rotor System of the AH-1G helicopter were performed. The stiffness, mass and geometric configurations of the Bell blade were matched to give a dynamically similar prestressed composite blade. A multi-tube, prestressed composite spar blade configuration was designed for superior ballistic survivability at low life cycle cost. The composite spar prestresses, imparted during fabrication, are chosen to maintain compression in the high strength cryogenically stretchformed 304-L stainless steel liner and tension in the overwrapped HTS graphite fibers under operating loads. This prestressing results in greatly improved crack propagation and fatigue resistance as well as enhanced fiber stiffness properties. Advantages projected for the prestressed composite rotor spar concept include increased operational life and improved ballistic survivability at low life cycle cost.

  1. Space Processing Applications Rocket project, SPAR 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F. (Compiler); Chassay, R. (Compiler)

    1976-01-01

    The experiment objectives, design/operational concepts, and final results of each of nine scientific experiments conducted during the first Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) flight are summarized. The nine individual SPAR experiments, covering a wide and varied range of scientific materials processing objectives, were entitled: solidification of Pb-Sb eutectic, feasibility of producing closed-cell metal foams, characterization of rocket vibration environment by measurement of mixing of two liquids, uniform dispersions of crystallization processing, direct observation of solidification as a function of gravity levels, casting thoria dispersion-strengthened interfaces, contained polycrystalline solidification, and preparation of a special alloy for manufacturing of magnetic hard superconductor under zero-g environment.

  2. Space Processing Applications Rocket project SPAR III

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F.

    1978-01-01

    This document presented the engineering report and science payload III test report and summarized the experiment objectives, design/operational concepts, and final results of each of five scientific experiments conducted during the third Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) flight flown by NASA in December 1976. The five individual SPAR experiments, covering a wide and varied range of scientific materials processing objectives, were entitled: Liquid Mixing, Interaction of Bubbles with Solidification Interfaces, Epitaxial Growth of Single Crystal Film, Containerless Processing of Beryllium, and Contact and Coalescence of Viscous Bodies.

  3. Nonlinear random motion analysis of coupled heave-pitch motions of a spar platform considering 1st-order and 2nd-order wave loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Shuxiao; Tang, Yougang; Li, Wei

    2016-06-01

    In this study, we consider first- and second-order random wave loads and the effects of time-varying displacement volume and transient wave elevation to establish motion equations of the Spar platform's coupled heave-pitch. We generated random wave loads based on frequency-domain wave load transfer functions and the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) wave spectrum, designed program codes to solve the motion equations, and then simulated the coupled heave-pitch motion responses of the platform in the time domain. We then calculated and compared the motion responses in different sea conditions and separately investigated the effects of second-order random wave loads and transient wave elevation. The results show that the coupled heave-pitch motion responses of the platform are primarily dominated by wave height and the characteristic wave period, the latter of which has a greater impact. Second-order mean wave loads mainly affect the average heave value. The platform's pitch increases after the second-order low frequency wave loads are taken into account. The platform's heave is underestimated if the transient wave elevation term in the motion equations is neglected.

  4. SparRec: An effective matrix completion framework of missing data imputation for GWAS

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Bo; Ma, Shiqian; Causey, Jason; Qiao, Linbo; Hardin, Matthew Price; Bitts, Ian; Johnson, Daniel; Zhang, Shuzhong; Huang, Xiuzhen

    2016-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies present computational challenges for missing data imputation, while the advances of genotype technologies are generating datasets of large sample sizes with sample sets genotyped on multiple SNP chips. We present a new framework SparRec (Sparse Recovery) for imputation, with the following properties: (1) The optimization models of SparRec, based on low-rank and low number of co-clusters of matrices, are different from current statistics methods. While our low-rank matrix completion (LRMC) model is similar to Mendel-Impute, our matrix co-clustering factorization (MCCF) model is completely new. (2) SparRec, as other matrix completion methods, is flexible to be applied to missing data imputation for large meta-analysis with different cohorts genotyped on different sets of SNPs, even when there is no reference panel. This kind of meta-analysis is very challenging for current statistics based methods. (3) SparRec has consistent performance and achieves high recovery accuracy even when the missing data rate is as high as 90%. Compared with Mendel-Impute, our low-rank based method achieves similar accuracy and efficiency, while the co-clustering based method has advantages in running time. The testing results show that SparRec has significant advantages and competitive performance over other state-of-the-art existing statistics methods including Beagle and fastPhase. PMID:27762341

  5. SparRec: An effective matrix completion framework of missing data imputation for GWAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Bo; Ma, Shiqian; Causey, Jason; Qiao, Linbo; Hardin, Matthew Price; Bitts, Ian; Johnson, Daniel; Zhang, Shuzhong; Huang, Xiuzhen

    2016-10-01

    Genome-wide association studies present computational challenges for missing data imputation, while the advances of genotype technologies are generating datasets of large sample sizes with sample sets genotyped on multiple SNP chips. We present a new framework SparRec (Sparse Recovery) for imputation, with the following properties: (1) The optimization models of SparRec, based on low-rank and low number of co-clusters of matrices, are different from current statistics methods. While our low-rank matrix completion (LRMC) model is similar to Mendel-Impute, our matrix co-clustering factorization (MCCF) model is completely new. (2) SparRec, as other matrix completion methods, is flexible to be applied to missing data imputation for large meta-analysis with different cohorts genotyped on different sets of SNPs, even when there is no reference panel. This kind of meta-analysis is very challenging for current statistics based methods. (3) SparRec has consistent performance and achieves high recovery accuracy even when the missing data rate is as high as 90%. Compared with Mendel-Impute, our low-rank based method achieves similar accuracy and efficiency, while the co-clustering based method has advantages in running time. The testing results show that SparRec has significant advantages and competitive performance over other state-of-the-art existing statistics methods including Beagle and fastPhase.

  6. Sparring and Cognitive Function in Professional Boxers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jordan, Barry D.; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Professional boxers provided information about their careers and training practices and completed neuropsychological testing. Test performance did not relate to age, boxing record, career length, or knockout history. The amount of sparring inversely related to performance on several of the tests, with impairment in the areas of attention,…

  7. Numerical wind-tunnel simulation for Spar platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Wenjun

    2017-05-01

    ANSYS Fluent software is used in the simulation analysis of numerical wind tunnel model for the upper Spar platform module. Design Modeler (DM), Meshing, FLUENT and CFD-POST are chosen in the numerical calculation. And DM is used to deal with and repair the geometric model, and Meshing is used to mesh the model, Fluent is used to set up and solve the calculation condition, finally CFD-POST is used for post-processing of the results. The wind loads are obtained under different direction and incidence angles. Finally, comparison is made between numerical results and empirical formula.

  8. Diffusion bonded boron/aluminum spar-shell fan blade

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carlson, C. E. K.; Cutler, J. L.; Fisher, W. J.; Memmott, J. V. W.

    1980-01-01

    Design and process development tasks intended to demonstrate composite blade application in large high by-pass ratio turbofan engines are described. Studies on a 3.0 aspect radio space and shell construction fan blade indicate a potential weight savings for a first stage fan rotor of 39% when a hollow titanium spar is employed. An alternate design which featured substantial blade internal volume filled with titanium honeycomb inserts achieved a 14% potential weight savings over the B/M rotor system. This second configuration requires a smaller development effort and entails less risk to translate a design into a successful product. The feasibility of metal joining large subsonic spar and shell fan blades was demonstrated. Initial aluminum alloy screening indicates a distinct preference for AA6061 aluminum alloy for use as a joint material. The simulated airfoil pressings established the necessity of rigid air surfaces when joining materials of different compressive rigidities. The two aluminum alloy matrix choices both were successfully formed into blade shells.

  9. Bubble behavior during solidification in low-gravity. [SPAR 1 and SPAR 3 flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papazian, J. M.; Wilcox, W. R.

    1979-01-01

    The trapping and behavior of gas bubbles were studied during low gravity solidification of carbon tetrabromide. The flight experiments were performed during two sounding rocket flights (SPAR 1 and SPAR 3) and involved gradient freeze solidification of gas saturated melts. Gas bubbles were evolved at the solid-liquid interfaces during the low gravity intervals. No large-scale thermal migration of bubbles, bubble pushing by the solid-liquid interface, or bubble detachment from the interface were observed during the low gravity experiments. During the SPAR 3 experiment, a unique bubble motion-fluid flow event occurred in one specimen: a large bubble moved downward and caused some circulation of the melt. The gas bubbles that were trapped by the solid in commercial purity material formed voids that had a cyclindrical shape in SPAR 3, in contrast to the spherical shape that had been observed in SPAR 1. These shapes were not influenced by the gravity level, but were dependent upon the initial temperature gradient. In higher purity material the shape of the voids changed from cylindrical in one-g to spherical in low-g.

  10. SPAR electrophoretic separation experiments, part 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cosmi, F. M.

    1978-01-01

    The opportunity to use a sounding rocket for separation experiments is a logical continuation of earlier electrophoresis demonstrations and experiments. A free-flow electrophoresis system, developed under the Advanced Applications Flight Experiment (AAFE) Program, was designed so that it would fit into a rocket payload. The SPAR program provides a unique opportunity to complete the intial stages of microgravity testing prior to any Shuttle applications. The objective of the work described in this report was to ensure proper operating parameters for the defined experimental samples to be used in the SPAR Electrophoretic Separation Experiment. Ground based experiments were undertaken not only to define flight parameters but also to serve as a point of comparison for flight results. Possible flight experiment problem areas were also studied such as sample interaction due to sedimentation, concentration effects and storage effects. Late in the program anomalies of field strengths and buffer conductivities were also investigated.

  11. Design of an Articulated Spar Buoy.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-02-01

    the wacar coijrnn. Consequently the problem of fouling of the rotor precluded the use of a moored current meter. The water depth at the spar was...seaweed suspended in the water :olumn. Consequently, a permanently mounted current meter is likely to soon become fouled and thus its use is not...current meter. Because such a device has no exposed moving parts, the proolem of short-term fouling is eliminated. if additional tests were to be performed

  12. Approximations for column effect in airplane wing spars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Warner, Edward P; Short, Mac

    1927-01-01

    The significance attaching to "column effect" in airplane wing spars has been increasingly realized with the passage of time, but exact computations of the corrections to bending moment curves resulting from the existence of end loads are frequently omitted because of the additional labor involved in an analysis by rigorously correct methods. The present report represents an attempt to provide for approximate column effect corrections that can be graphically or otherwise expressed so as to be applied with a minimum of labor. Curves are plotted giving approximate values of the correction factors for single and two bay trusses of varying proportions and with various relationships between axial and lateral loads. It is further shown from an analysis of those curves that rough but useful approximations can be obtained from Perry's formula for corrected bending moment, with the assumed distance between points of inflection arbitrarily modified in accordance with rules given in the report. The discussion of general rules of variation of bending stress with axial load is accompanied by a study of the best distribution of the points of support along a spar for various conditions of loading.

  13. Preform spar cap for a wind turbine rotor blade

    DOEpatents

    Livingston, Jamie T.; Driver, Howard D.; van Breugel, Sjef; Jenkins, Thomas B.; Bakhuis, Jan Willem; Billen, Andrew J.; Riahi, Amir

    2011-07-12

    A spar cap for a wind turbine rotor blade. The spar cap may include multiple preform components. The multiple preform components may be planar sheets having a swept shape with a first end and a second end. The multiple preform components may be joined by mating the first end of a first preform component to the second end of a next preform component, forming the spar cap.

  14. PROOF OF CONCEPT FOR A HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD FOR HEURISTIC USABILITY EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Jeffrey C. Joe; Julie L. Marble

    2005-09-01

    An ongoing issue within human-computer interaction (HCI) is the need for simplified or “discount” methods. The current economic slowdown has necessitated innovative methods that are results driven and cost effective. The myriad methods of design and usability are currently being cost-justified, and new techniques are actively being explored that meet current budgets and needs. Recent efforts in human reliability analysis (HRA) are highlighted by the ten-year development of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk HRA (SPAR-H) method. The SPAR-H method has been used primarily for determining humancentered risk at nuclear power plants. The SPAR-H method, however, shares task analysis underpinnings with HCI. Despite this methodological overlap, there is currently no HRA approach deployed in heuristic usability evaluation. This paper presents an extension of the existing SPAR-H method to be used as part of heuristic usability evaluation in HCI.

  15. Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  16. Assessment of SPAR elements and formulation of some basic 2-D and 3-D elements for use with testbed generic element processor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aminpour, Mohammad A.

    1989-01-01

    The initial Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM) Testbed was based on Level 13 of the SPAR finite element computer program. Until recently, the element library of the Testbed has been limited to those elements in Level 13 of SPAR. The development of a generic element processor has enabled element researchers to develop, implement and assess element formulations with relative ease. An assessment of new elements as well as the existing SPAR Level 13 elements has revealed some definite shortcomings with the SPAR Level 13 2-D and 3-D elements. The SPAR S81 solid element does not pass the patch test problem proposed by MacNeal-Harder. These deficiencies are identified here. The 2-D elements, however, seem to perform well taking into account the limitations imposed by the theory used to formulate them, (i.e., thin plates only). Common deficiencies of the 2-D and 3-D elements in SPAR have to do with their adaptability to the nonlinear analysis utilities developed by Lockheed Palo Alto Research Lab. Also, the EFIL format of the SPAR element data does not conform to the standard format of the Testbed.

  17. FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

  18. Fabrication and testing of prestressed composite rotor blade spar specimens

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gleich, D.

    1974-01-01

    Prestressed composite spar specimens were fabricated and evaluated by crack propagation and ballistic penetration tests. The crack propagation tests on flawed specimens showed that the prestressed composite spar construction significantly suppresses crack growth. Damage from three high velocity 30 caliber projectile hits was confined to three small holes in the ballistic test specimen. No fragmentation or crack propagation was observed indicating good ballistic damage resistance. Rotor attachment approaches and improved structural performance configurations were identified. Design theory was verified by tests. The prestressed composite spar configuration consisted of a compressively prestressed high strength ARDEFORM 301 stainless steel liner overwrapped with pretensioned S-994 fiberglass.

  19. ER-20037 LLNL eternal pathfinder wing spar design study report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    This document outlines the results of a design study performed by EDO-FSD on the LLNL Eternal Pathfinder Wing Spar/Fuel Tank. The main focus of the design study was the weight minimization of the composite wall of the mid span spar section of the aircraft. The torque, shear, moment and pressure loading requirements, as well as LLNL`s preliminary drawings, were used to develop a reduced weight mid-span spar design. The design study also encompassed details such as the pressure bulkheads, wing rod connectors, and attachment flanges.

  20. MODIFICATION OF THE SPAR-H METHOD TO SUPPORT HRA FOR LEVEL 2 PSA

    SciTech Connect

    St. Germain, S.; Boring, R.; Banaseanu, G.; Akl, Y.; Xu, M.

    2016-10-01

    Currently, available Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods were generally developed to support Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) models. There has been an increased emphasis placed on Level 2 PSA in recent years; however, the currently used HRA methods are not ideal for this application, including the SPAR-H method. Challenges that will likely be present during a severe accident such as degraded or hazardous operating conditions, shift in control from the main control room to the technical support center, unavailability of instrumentation, and others are not routinely considered for Level 1 HRA analysis. These factors combine to create a much more uncertain condition to be accounted for in the HRA analysis. While the SPAR-H shaping factors were established to support Level 1 HRA, previous studies have shown it may be used for Level 2 HRA analysis as well. The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in a joint project are investigating modifications to the SPAR-H method to create more consistency in applying the performance shaping factors used in the method for Level 2 analysis.

  1. Progressive failure of composite wind blades with a shear-web spar subjected to static testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kam, T. Y.; Chiu, Y. H.

    2017-06-01

    Composite wind blades of 1m long comprising glass-fabric/epoxy skins and a sandwich plate-type spar were designed and fabricated for static testing. In the composite wind blades, the spar supports the top and bottom skins to form the airfoil shape of NACA4418. The blades were tested to failure and the failure modes were identified at different loading stages. A structural failure analysis method which consists of a geometrically nonlinear finite element (FE) model and appropriate phenomenological failure criteria is used to study the progressive failure behaviours of the blades subjected to different types of quasi-static loads. The experimental load-displacement curves as well as failure loads and locations for different failure modes are used to validate the suitability of the proposed failure analysis method.

  2. Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident Frequencies for the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect

    S. A. Eide; D. M. Rasmuson; C. L. Atwood

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission maintains a set of risk models covering the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. These standardized plant analysis risk (SPAR) models include several loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) initiating events such as small (SLOCA), medium (MLOCA), and large (LLOCA). All of these events involve a loss of coolant inventory from the reactor coolant system. In order to maintain a level of consistency across these models, initiating event frequencies generally are based on plant-type average performance, where the plant types are boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. For certain risk analyses, these plant-type initiating event frequencies may be replaced by plant-specific estimates. Frequencies for SPAR LOCA initiating events previously were based on results presented in NUREG/CR-5750, but the newest models use results documented in NUREG/CR-6928. The estimates in NUREG/CR-6928 are based on historical data from the initiating events database for pressurized water reactor SLOCA or an interpretation of results presented in the draft version of NUREG-1829. The information in NUREG-1829 can be used several ways, resulting in different estimates for the various LOCA frequencies. Various ways NUREG-1829 information can be used to estimate LOCA frequencies were investigated and this paper presents two methods for the SPAR model standard inputs, which differ from the method used in NUREG/CR-6928. In addition, results obtained from NUREG-1829 are compared with actual operating experience as contained in the initiating events database.

  3. DETAIL VIEW OF INTERIOR MAIN SPACE WITH SPAR MILL EQUIPMENT ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    DETAIL VIEW OF INTERIOR MAIN SPACE WITH SPAR MILL EQUIPMENT IN FOREGROUND, FACING NORTH. - Douglas Aircraft Company Long Beach Plant, Aircraft Parts Sub-Assembly Building, 3855 Lakewood Boulevard, Long Beach, Los Angeles County, CA

  4. A dynamic spar numerical model for passive shape change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calogero, J. P.; Frecker, M. I.; Hasnain, Z.; Hubbard, J. E., Jr.

    2016-10-01

    A three-dimensional constraint-driven dynamic rigid-link numerical model of a flapping wing structure with compliant joints (CJs) called the dynamic spar numerical model is introduced and implemented. CJs are modeled as spherical joints with distributed mass and spring-dampers with coupled nonlinear spring and damping coefficients, which models compliant mechanisms spatially distributed in the structure while greatly reducing computation time compared to a finite element model. The constraints are established, followed by the formulation of a state model used in conjunction with a forward time integrator, an experiment to verify a rigid-link assumption and determine a flapping angle function, and finally several example runs. Modeling the CJs as coupled bi-linear springs shows the wing is able to flex more during upstroke than downstroke. Coupling the spring stiffnesses allows an angular deformation about one axis to induce an angular deformation about another axis, where the magnitude is proportional to the coupling term. Modeling both the leading edge and diagonal spars shows that the diagonal spar changes the kinematics of the leading edge spar verses only considering the leading edge spar, causing much larger axial rotations in the leading edge spar. The kinematics are very sensitive to CJ location, where moving the CJ toward the wing root causes a stronger response, and adding multiple CJs on the leading edge spar with a CJ on the diagonal spar allows the wing to deform with larger magnitude in all directions. This model lays a framework for a tool which can be used to understand flapping wing flight.

  5. Metal spar/superhybrid shell composite fan blades. [for application to turbofan engins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Salemme, C. T.; Murphy, G. C.

    1979-01-01

    The use of superhybrid materials in the manufacture and testing of large fan blades is analyzed. The FOD resistance of large metal spar/superhybrid fan blades is investigated. The technical effort reported was comprised of: (1) preliminary blade design; (2) detailed analysis of two selected superhybrid blade designs; (3) manufacture of two process evaluation blades and destructive evaluation; and (4) manufacture and whirligig testing of six prototype superhybrid blades.

  6. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    SciTech Connect

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  7. SPAR: a random forest-based predictor for self-interacting proteins with fine-grained domain information.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xuhan; Yang, Shiping; Li, Chen; Zhang, Ziding; Song, Jiangning

    2016-07-01

    Protein self-interaction, i.e. the interaction between two or more identical proteins expressed by one gene, plays an important role in the regulation of cellular functions. Considering the limitations of experimental self-interaction identification, it is necessary to design specific bioinformatics tools for self-interacting protein (SIP) prediction from protein sequence information. In this study, we proposed an improved computational approach for SIP prediction, termed SPAR (Self-interacting Protein Analysis serveR). Firstly, we developed an improved encoding scheme named critical residues substitution (CRS), in which the fine-grained domain-domain interaction information was taken into account. Then, by employing the Random Forest algorithm, the performance of CRS was evaluated and compared with several other encoding schemes commonly used for sequence-based protein-protein interaction prediction. Through the tenfold cross-validation tests on a balanced training dataset, CRS performed the best, with the average accuracy up to 72.01 %. We further integrated CRS with other encoding schemes and identified the most important features using the mRMR (the minimum redundancy maximum relevance) feature selection method. Our SPAR model with selected features achieved an average accuracy of 92.09 % on the human-independent test set (the ratio of positives to negatives was about 1:11). Besides, we also evaluated the performance of SPAR on an independent yeast test set (the ratio of positives to negatives was about 1:8) and obtained an average accuracy of 76.96 %. The results demonstrate that SPAR is capable of achieving a reasonable performance in cross-species application. The SPAR server is freely available for academic use at http://systbio.cau.edu.cn/zzdlab/spar/ .

  8. Wind blade spar cap and method of making

    DOEpatents

    Mohamed, Mansour H.

    2008-05-27

    A wind blade spar cap for strengthening a wind blade including an integral, unitary three-dimensional woven material having a first end and a second end, corresponding to a root end of the blade and a tip end of the blade, wherein the material tapers in width from the first to the second end while maintaining a constant thickness and decreasing weight therebetween, the cap being capable of being affixed to the blade for providing increased strength with controlled variation in weight from the root end to the tip end based upon the tapered width of the material thereof. The present inventions also include the method of making the wind blade spar cap and a wind blade including the wind blade spar cap.

  9. Skylab Apollo Telescope Mount Spar and Sun End

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1971-01-01

    The Apollo Telescope Mount (ATM) was designed and developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center and served as the primary scientific instrument unit aboard Skylab (1973-1979). The ATM contained eight complex astronomical instruments designed to observe the Sun over a wide spectrum from visible light to x-rays. This image depicts the sun end and spar of the ATM flight unit showing individual telescopes. All solar telescopes, the fine Sun sensors, and some auxiliary systems are mounted on the spar, a cruciform lightweight perforated metal mounting panel that divides the canister lengthwise into four equal compartments. The spar assembly was nested inside a cylindrical canister that fit into a complex frame named the rack, and was protected by the solar shield.

  10. Improvements in linked-spar motion-compensated lifting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olsen, R. A.; Cuthbertson, R. A.

    1984-10-01

    An improved system for operating a lifting cable over the side of a ship at sea in which a spar buoy having an adjustable lifting capacity is coupled to the shop by a rigid linkage which is free to pivot on an axis attached to the ship deck, and operates to decouple the motion of the ship from lifting cable. The spar buoy is attached to a gimbal sheave assembly having a disengageable connector and tension line for drawing the connector into engagement with a mating socket at the outward end of a linkage boom. A narrow upper section of the spar buoy is provided with a plurality of vertical tubes and valves which by flooding or evacuation operate to vary the effective water plane area of the buoy for continual fine tuning and optimally adjusting of its natural heave mode characteristic frequency.

  11. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at position...

  12. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at position...

  13. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at position...

  14. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at position...

  15. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at position...

  16. Risk analysis highly valued.

    PubMed

    Gammelsaeter, Håkon; Ramstad, Jens Eirik; Røv, Ann Solberg; Walseth, Frode; Paulsen, Anne Margrethe

    2003-11-01

    It is felt that risk and vulnerability analysis is an excellent means of assessing and communicating risk and inconvenience related to extensive construction activities. The main reasons for this are: It uncovers the risks and inconveniences involved. Risk reducing and alert measures are identified. Preventive action and emergency plans are implemented. It is easy to learn. It is unbureaucratic. It promotes cross-professional communication. It distributes correct information very effectively.

  17. Multiple piece turbine engine airfoil with a structural spar

    DOEpatents

    Vance, Steven J.

    2011-10-11

    A multiple piece turbine airfoil having an outer shell with an airfoil tip that is attached to a root with an internal structural spar is disclosed. The root may be formed from first and second sections that include an internal cavity configured to receive and secure the one or more components forming the generally elongated airfoil. The internal structural spar may be attached to an airfoil tip and place the generally elongated airfoil in compression. The configuration enables each component to be formed from different materials to reduce the cost of the materials and to optimize the choice of material for each component.

  18. Space processing applications rocket project SPAR 4, engineering report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F. (Compiler)

    1980-01-01

    The materials processing experiments in space, conducted on the SPAR 4 Black Brant VC rocket, are described and discussed. The SPAR 4 payload configuration, the rocket performance, and the flight sequence are reported. The results, analyses, and anomalies of the four experiments are discussed. The experiments conducted were the uniform dispersions of crystallization processing, the contained polycrstalline solidification in low gravity, the containerless processing of ferromagnetic materials, and the containerless processing technology. The instrumentation operations, payload power relay anomaly, relay postflight operational test, and relay postflight shock test are reported.

  19. Lightweight rotor design by optimal spar cap offset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Croce, A.; Sartori, L.; Lunghini, M. S.; Clozza, L.; Bortolotti, P.; Bottasso, C. L.

    2016-09-01

    Bend-twist coupling behavior is induced in a blade by displacing the suction side spar cap towards the leading edge, and the pressure side one in the opposite direction. Additional couplings are introduced by rotating the spar cap fibers. The structural configuration of the blade is optimized using an automated design environment. The resulting blade shows significant benefits in terms of mass and loads when compared to the baseline uncoupled one. Finally, the lightweight design concept is used to increase the rotor size, resulting in a larger energy yield for the same hub loads.

  20. Quantitative environmental risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Klovning, J.; Nilsen, E.F.

    1995-12-31

    According to regulations relating to implementation and rise of risk analysis in the petroleum activities issued by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, it is mandatory for an operator on the Norwegian Continental Shelf to establish acceptance criteria for environmental risk in the activities and carry out environmental risk analysis. This paper presents a {open_quotes}new{close_quotes} method for environmental risk analysis developed by the company. The objective has been to assist the company to meet rules and regulations and to assess and describe the environmental risk in a systematic manner. In the environmental risk analysis the most sensitive biological resource in the affected area is used to assess the environmental damage. The analytical method is based on the methodology for quantitative risk analysis related to loss of life. In addition it incorporates the effect of seasonal fluctuations in the environmental risk evaluations. The paper is describing the function of the main analytical sequences exemplified through an analysis of environmental risk related to exploration drilling in an environmental sensitive area on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

  1. Risk analysis methodology survey

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batson, Robert G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  2. Is risk analysis scientific?

    PubMed

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Advanced grid-stiffened composite shells for applications in heavy-lift helicopter rotor blade spars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narayanan Nampy, Sreenivas

    Modern rotor blades are constructed using composite materials to exploit their superior structural performance compared to metals. Helicopter rotor blade spars are conventionally designed as monocoque structures. Blades of the proposed Heavy Lift Helicopter are envisioned to be as heavy as 800 lbs when designed using the monocoque spar design. A new and innovative design is proposed to replace the conventional spar designs with light weight grid-stiffened composite shell. Composite stiffened shells have been known to provide excellent strength to weight ratio and damage tolerance with an excellent potential to reduce weight. Conventional stringer--rib stiffened construction is not suitable for rotor blade spars since they are limited in generating high torsion stiffness that is required for aeroelastic stability of the rotor. As a result, off-axis (helical) stiffeners must be provided. This is a new design space where innovative modeling techniques are needed. The structural behavior of grid-stiffened structures under axial, bending, and torsion loads, typically experienced by rotor blades need to be accurately predicted. The overall objective of the present research is to develop and integrate the necessary design analysis tools to conduct a feasibility study in employing grid-stiffened shells for heavy-lift rotor blade spars. Upon evaluating the limitations in state-of-the-art analytical models in predicting the axial, bending, and torsion stiffness coefficients of grid and grid-stiffened structures, a new analytical model was developed. The new analytical model based on the smeared stiffness approach was developed employing the stiffness matrices of the constituent members of the grid structure such as an arch, helical, or straight beam representing circumferential, helical, and longitudinal stiffeners. This analysis has the capability to model various stiffening configurations such as angle-grid, ortho-grid, and general-grid. Analyses were performed using an

  4. Filament-wound spar shell graphite/epoxy fan blades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yao, S.

    1976-01-01

    The methodology for fabrication of wet filament wound spar shell fan blades is presented. All principal structural elements were filament wound, assembled, formed, bonded and co-cured in a female mold. A pair of blades were fabricated as one integral unit and parted into two after curing.

  5. Graphics and composite material computer program enhancements for SPAR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farley, G. L.; Baker, D. J.

    1980-01-01

    User documentation is provided for additional computer programs developed for use in conjunction with SPAR. These programs plot digital data, simplify input for composite material section properties, and compute lamina stresses and strains. Sample problems are presented including execution procedures, program input, and graphical output.

  6. Risk analysis before launch

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behlert, Rene

    1988-08-01

    A quality methodology is proposed based on risk analysis and observation of technical facts. The procedures for the quantization of a risk are described and examples are given. A closed loop quality analysis is described. Overall mission safety goals are described. The concept of maintenance is developed to evolutionary maintenance. It is shown that a large number of data must be processed to apply the proposed methods. The use of computer data processing is required.

  7. Fatigue Lives of Specimens Representing Critical Locations in Mirage III Spars under Australian and Swiss Test Spectra,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-02-01

    Library Qantas Airways Limited Ansett Airlines of Australia. Library BHP, Melbourne Research Laboratories Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation, Library Hawker...where the crack initiated. The results of a fractographic analysis of the spar fracture surface are contained in Reference 4, and the significance on the...in the failure regions under the two test spectra. An important implication of this analysis was that, unless this difference in lives could be

  8. lncRNA-Encoded Polypeptide SPAR(s) with mTORC1 to Regulate Skeletal Muscle Regeneration.

    PubMed

    Tajbakhsh, Shahragim

    2017-04-06

    Although prematurely baptized as non-coding, some lncRNAs encode polypeptides with regulatory functions that are implicated in various biological processes. Matsumoto et al. (2017) recently report in Nature that LINC00961 generates SPAR polypeptide that acts via the lysosome to suppress amino-acid-mediated mTORC1 activity, thereby modulating skeletal muscle regenerative response following injury.

  9. Program risk analysis handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batson, R. G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided.

  10. Time-Motion and Biological Responses in Simulated Mixed Martial Arts Sparring Matches.

    PubMed

    Coswig, Victor S; Ramos, Solange de P; Del Vecchio, Fabrício B

    2016-08-01

    Coswig, VS, Ramos, SdP, and Del Vecchio, FB. Time-motion and biological responses in simulated mixed martial arts sparring matches. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2156-2163, 2016-Simulated matches are a relevant component of training for mixed martial arts (MMA) athletes. This study aimed to characterize time-motion responses and investigate physiological stress and neuromuscular changes related to MMA sparring matches. Thirteen athletes with an average age of 25 ± 5 years, body mass of 81.3 ± 9.5 kg, height of 176.2 ± 5.5 cm, and time of practice in MMA of 39 ± 25 months participated in the study. The fighters executed three 5-minute rounds with 1-minute intervals. Blood and salivary samples were collected and physical tests and psychometric questionnaires administered at 3 time points: before (PRE), immediately after (POST), and 48 hours after the combat (48 h). Statistical analysis applied analysis of variance for repeated measurements. In biochemical analysis, significant changes (p ≤ 0.05) were identified between PRE and POST (glucose: 80.3 ± 12.7 to 156.5 ± 19.1 mg·ml; lactate: 4 ± 1.7 to 15.6 ± 4.8 mmol·dl), POST and 48 hours (glucose: 156.5 ± 19.1 to 87.6 ± 15.5 mg·ml; lactate: 15.6 ± 4.8 to 2.9 ± 3.5 mmol·dl; urea: 44.1 ± 8.9 to 36.3 ± 7.8 mg·ml), and PRE and 48 hours (creatine kinase [CK]: 255.8 ± 137.4 to 395.9 ± 188.7 U/L). In addition, time-motion analyses showed a total high:low intensity of 1:2 and an effort:pause ratio of 1:3. In conclusion, simulated MMA sparring matches feature moderate to high intensity and a low degree of musculoskeletal damage, which can be seen by absence of physical performance and decrease in CK. Results of the study indicate that sparring training could be introduced into competitive microcycles to improve technical and tactical aspects of MMA matches, due to the high motor specificity and low muscle damage.

  11. DWPF risk analysis summary

    SciTech Connect

    Shedrow, C.B.

    1990-10-01

    This document contains selected risk analysis data from Chapter 9 (Safety Analysis) of the Defense Waste Processing Facility Safety Analysis Report DWPF SAR and draft Addendum 1 to the Waste Tank Farms SAR. Although these data may be revised prior to finalization of the draft SAR and the draft addendum, they are presently the best available information and were therefore used in preparing the risk analysis portion of the DWPF Environmental Analysis (DWPF EA). This information has been extracted from those draft documents an approved under separate cover so that it can be used as reference material for the DWPF EA when it is placed in the public reading rooms. 9 refs., 4 tabs.

  12. Impact resistance of spar-shell composite fan blades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graff, J.; Stoltze, L.; Varholak, E. M.

    1973-01-01

    Composite spar-shell fan blades for a 1.83 meter (6 feet) diameter fan stage were fabricated and tested in a whirling arm facility to evaluate foreign object damage (FOD) resistance. The blades were made by adhesively bonding boron-epoxy shells on titanium spars and then adhesively bonding an Inconel 625 sheath on the leading edge. The rotating blades were individually tested at a tip speed of 800 feet per second. Impacting media used were gravel, rivets, bolt, nut, ice balls, simulated birds, and a real bird. Incidence angles were typical of those which might be experienced by STOL aircraft. The tests showed that blades of the design tested in this program have satisfactory impact resistance to small objects such as gravel, rivets, nuts, bolts, and two inch diameter ice balls. The blades suffered nominal damage when impacted with one-pound birds (9 to 10 ounce slice size). However, the shell was removed from the spar for a larger slice size.

  13. Torsional rigidity of cantilever wings with constant spar and rib sections

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gabrielli, Giuseppe

    1929-01-01

    The present paper treats less of the effect of the union (of spars and ribs, namely, the reduction of the bending moment at the fixed ends of the spars) than of its influence on the torsional rigidity of the wing. The calculations are carried out for a two-spar wing of constant cross section, in which the ribs are replaced by a continuous member of constant rigidity.

  14. Experimental and analytical investigation of dynamic characteristics of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lake, Renee C.; Izadpanah, Amir P.; Baucom, Robert M.

    1993-01-01

    The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite spars was manufactured with four plies of graphite-epoxy cloth prepreg. These spars were noncircular in cross-section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three different cross-sectional geometries were developed: D-shape, square, and flattened ellipse. Three spars of each type were fabricated to assess the degree of repeatability in the manufacturing process of extension-twist-coupled structures. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models. Five global modes were identified within the frequency range from 0 to 2000 Hz for each spar. The experimental results for only one D-shape spar could be determined, however, and agreed within 13.8 percent of the analytical results. Frequencies corresponding to the five global modes for the three square spars agreed within 9.5, 11.6, and 8.5 percent of the respective analytical results and for the three elliptical spars agreed within 4.9, 7.7, and 9.6 percent of the respective analytical results.

  15. Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Through selection of resistance to sparfloxacin, an attenuated Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar was obtained from its virulent parent strain S. agalactiae 138P. The full genome of S. agalactiae 138spar is 1,838,126 bp. The availability of this genome will allow comparative genomics to identi...

  16. Calculation of wing spars of variable cross-section and linear load

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirste, Leon

    1925-01-01

    The calculation of wing spars of constant cross-section and load has been thoroughly treated by a large number of authors. Such is not the case,however, regarding the calculation of wing spars whose section and linear load diminish toward the ends, as in wings of trapezoidal contour and decreasing section.

  17. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    PubMed

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  18. Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

    SciTech Connect

    2014-02-10

    RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant status are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.

  19. Contests with deadly weapons: telson sparring in mantis shrimp (Stomatopoda)

    PubMed Central

    Green, P. A.; Patek, S. N.

    2015-01-01

    Mantis shrimp strike with extreme impact forces that are deadly to prey. They also strike conspecifics during territorial contests, yet theoretical and empirical findings in aggressive behaviour research suggest competitors should resolve conflicts using signals before escalating to dangerous combat. We tested how Neogonodactylus bredini uses two ritualized behaviours to resolve size-matched contests: meral spread visual displays and telson (tailplate) strikes. We predicted that (i) most contests would be resolved by meral spreads, (ii) meral spreads would reliably signal strike force and (iii) strike force would predict contest success. The results were unexpected for each prediction. Contests were not resolved by meral spreads, instead escalating to striking in 33 of 34 experiments. The size of meral spread components did not strongly correlate with strike force. Strike force did not predict contest success; instead, winners delivered more strikes. Size-matched N. bredini avoid deadly combat not by visual displays, but by ritualistically and repeatedly striking each other's telsons until the loser retreats. We term this behaviour ‘telson sparring', analogous to sparring in other weapon systems. We present an alternative framework for mantis shrimp contests in which the fight itself is the signal, serving as a non-lethal indicator of aggressive persistence or endurance. PMID:26399976

  20. Contests with deadly weapons: telson sparring in mantis shrimp (Stomatopoda).

    PubMed

    Green, P A; Patek, S N

    2015-09-01

    Mantis shrimp strike with extreme impact forces that are deadly to prey. They also strike conspecifics during territorial contests, yet theoretical and empirical findings in aggressive behaviour research suggest competitors should resolve conflicts using signals before escalating to dangerous combat. We tested how Neogonodactylus bredini uses two ritualized behaviours to resolve size-matched contests: meral spread visual displays and telson (tailplate) strikes. We predicted that (i) most contests would be resolved by meral spreads, (ii) meral spreads would reliably signal strike force and (iii) strike force would predict contest success. The results were unexpected for each prediction. Contests were not resolved by meral spreads, instead escalating to striking in 33 of 34 experiments. The size of meral spread components did not strongly correlate with strike force. Strike force did not predict contest success; instead, winners delivered more strikes. Size-matched N. bredini avoid deadly combat not by visual displays, but by ritualistically and repeatedly striking each other's telsons until the loser retreats. We term this behaviour 'telson sparring', analogous to sparring in other weapon systems. We present an alternative framework for mantis shrimp contests in which the fight itself is the signal, serving as a non-lethal indicator of aggressive persistence or endurance. © 2015 The Author(s).

  1. Physiological responses of simulated karate sparring matches in young men and boys.

    PubMed

    Iide, Kazuhide; Imamura, Hiroyuki; Yoshimura, Yoshitaka; Yamashita, Asuka; Miyahara, Keiko; Miyamoto, Noriko; Moriwaki, Chinatsu

    2008-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the duration of each series of offensive and defensive techniques and the cardiovascular, metabolic, and perceptual responses during 2- and 3-minute bouts of simulated karate sparring. Six young men (age, 18-20 years) and 6 boys (age, 16-17 years) participated in this study. We formed 3 pairs of men and 3 pairs of boys to create a demanding competitive environment. After a rest period, each pair performed a 2-minute bout of sparring, sat quietly for 60 minutes, and then performed 3-minute bout of sparring. We measured oxygen uptake (Vo2), heart rate (HR), and blood lactate responses and ascertained the rate of perceived exertion (RPE) and energy expenditure (EE) during these sparring bouts. The ventilatory threshold was estimated from ventilatory equivalent and Vo2 obtained during the treadmill test. The duration of each series of offensive and defensive techniques was videotaped. During the 2- and 3-minute bouts of sparring, the duration of longest series of offensive and/or defensive combination techniques performed were 2.1 +/- 1.0 and 1.8 +/- 0.4 seconds, respectively; the mean total times of performing offensive and defensive techniques were 13.3 +/- 3.3 and 19.4 +/- 5.5 seconds, respectively. The mean oxygen uptake (Vo2), the percentage of maximum oxygen uptake (%Vo2max), HR, percentage of maximum HR, RPE, and EE for a 3-minute bout of sparring were significantly higher than for a 2-minute bout of sparring. The mean %Vo2max values for these bouts of sparring were below the ventilatory threshold. It is recommended that karate practitioners perform more specific weight training, plyometric exercises, and interval training to increase the ability to buffer acid muscle and blood concentrations and to build lean body mass, strength, and power to develop the specific motor skills required in sparring.

  2. Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

    2015-01-01

    Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

  3. Risk: a multidisciplinary concept analysis.

    PubMed

    McNeill, Charleen

    2014-01-01

    To analyze the concept of risk utilizing Walker and Avant's method of analysis to determine a conceptual definition applicable within nursing and nursing research. The mental constructs and consequences of risk have a proactive connotation compared with the negative behaviors often identified as illustrations of risk. A new conceptual definition of risk provides insight into an understanding of risk regardless of discipline. Its application to the metaparadigm of nursing should be the impetus for action and education. Formalizing the mental constructs of the concept of risk in a clear manner facilitates the inclusion of its latent constructs in nursing research. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Translational benchmark risk analysis

    PubMed Central

    Piegorsch, Walter W.

    2010-01-01

    Translational development – in the sense of translating a mature methodology from one area of application to another, evolving area – is discussed for the use of benchmark doses in quantitative risk assessment. Illustrations are presented with traditional applications of the benchmark paradigm in biology and toxicology, and also with risk endpoints that differ from traditional toxicological archetypes. It is seen that the benchmark approach can apply to a diverse spectrum of risk management settings. This suggests a promising future for this important risk-analytic tool. Extensions of the method to a wider variety of applications represent a significant opportunity for enhancing environmental, biomedical, industrial, and socio-economic risk assessments. PMID:20953283

  5. Compendium on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DTIC Science & Technology

    The evolution of risk analysis in the materiel acquisition process is traced from the Secretary Packard memorandum to current AMC guidance. Risk ... analysis is defined and many of the existing techniques are described in light of this definition and their specific role in program management and

  6. Risk/benefit analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Crouch, E.A.C.; Wilson, R.

    1982-01-01

    The Reagan administration is intent on rolling back regulations it considers unwise to give new life to American industry, but regulations were instituted to protect individuals against long-term hazards. The authors believe these hazards must be assessed before a regulation is modified, suspended, or implemented. They point out the problems inherent in defining, perceiving, and estimating risk. Throughout, they combine theoretical discussions with actual case studies covering the risk associated with nuclear power plants, saccharin use, mass chest radiography, and others. They believe that risk assessment should be distinct from decision making, with the risk assessor supplying clear and objective information about hazards and the probability of damage as well as pointing out the uncertainties to policy makers. 149 references, 29 figures, 8 tables.

  7. Risk analysis and management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, H. E.

    1990-01-01

    Present software development accomplishments are indicative of the emerging interest in and increasing efforts to provide risk assessment backbone tools in the manned spacecraft engineering community. There are indications that similar efforts are underway in the chemical processes industry and are probably being planned for other high risk ground base environments. It appears that complex flight systems intended for extended manned planetary exploration will drive this technology.

  8. A comparison of laboratory measured temperatures with predictions for a spar/skin type aircraft structure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1981-01-01

    A typical spar/skin aircraft structure was heated nonuniformly in a laboratory and the resulting temperatures were measured. The heat transfer NASTRAN computer program was used to provide predictions. Calculated temperatures based on a thermal model with conduction, radiation, and convection features compared closely to measured spar temperatures. Results were obtained without the thermal conductivity, specific heat, or emissivity with temperature. All modes of heat transfer (conduction, radiation, and convection) show to affect the magnitude and distribution of structural temperatures.

  9. Object Oriented Risk Analysis Workshop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pons, M. Güell I.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2009-04-01

    In the framework of the RISET Project (Interfaculty Network of Support to Education and Technology) an educational tool for introducing risk analysis has been developed. This workshop enables to carry a group of students (role-play game) through a step-by-step process of risk identification and quantification. The aim is to assess risk in a characteristic alpine village regarding natural hazards (rockfall, snow avalanche, flooding…) and is oriented to affected objects such as buildings, infrastructures... The workshop contains the following steps: 1.- Planning of the study and definition of stakeholders 2.- Hazard identification 3.- Risk analysis 4.- Risk assessment 5.- Proposition of mitigation measures 6- Risk management and cost-benefit analysis. During the process, information related to past events and useful concepts are provided in order to bring up discussion and decision making. The Risk Matrix and other graphical tools allow having a visual representation of the risk level and help to prioritize counter measures. At the end of the workshop, there is the possibility to compare the results between different groups and print out a summarizing report. This approach provides a rapid and comprehensible risk evaluation. The workshop is accessible from the internet and will be used for educational purposes at bachelor and master level as well as for external persons dealing with risk analysis.

  10. SPAR1/RTEL1 maintains genomic stability by suppressing homologous recombination

    PubMed Central

    Barber, Louise J.; Youds, Jillian L.; Ward, Jordan D.; McIlwraith, Michael J.; O’Neil, Nigel J.; Petalcorin, Mark I.R.; Martin, Julie S.; Collis, Spencer J.; Cantor, Sharon B.; Auclair, Melissa; Tissenbaum, Heidi; West, Stephen C.; Rose, Ann M.; Boulton, Simon J.

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY Inappropriate homologous recombination (HR) can cause gross chromosomal rearrangements that in mammalian cells may lead to tumorigenesis. In yeast, the Srs2 protein is an anti-recombinase that eliminates inappropriate recombination events, but the functional equivalent of Srs2 in higher eukaryotes has proven to be elusive. In this work, we identify C. elegans SPAR-1 as a functional analogue of Srs2 and describe its vertebrate counterpart, SPAR1/RTEL1, which is required for genome stability and tumour avoidance. We find that spar-1 mutant worms and SPAR1 knockdown human cells share characteristic phenotypes with yeast srs2 mutants, including inviability upon deletion of the sgs1/BLM homologue, hyper-recombination, and DNA damage sensitivity. In vitro, purified human SPAR1 antagonises HR by promoting the disassembly of D loop recombination intermediates in a reaction dependent upon ATP hydrolysis. We propose that loss of HR control following deregulation of SPAR1/RTEL1 may be a critical event that drives genome instability and cancer. PMID:18957201

  11. Budget Risk & Prioritization Analysis Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Carlos Castillo, Jerel Nelson

    2010-12-31

    BRPAtool performs the following: •Assists managers in making solid decisions on what scope/activities to reduce and/or eliminate, to meet constrained budgets, based on multiple risk factors •Enables analysis of different budget scenarios •Can analyze risks and cost for each activity based on technical, quantifiable risk criteria and management-determined risks •Real-time analysis •Enables managers to determine the multipliers and where funding is best applied •Promotes solid budget defense

  12. The Components of Microbiological Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Serraino, Andrea

    2015-02-03

    The paper describes the process of risk analysis in a food safety perspective. The steps of risk analysis defined as a process consisting of three interconnected components (risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication) are analysed. The different components of the risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are further described.

  13. The Components of Microbiological Risk Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Serraino, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The paper describes the process of risk analysis in a food safety perspective. The steps of risk analysis defined as a process consisting of three interconnected components (risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication) are analysed. The different components of the risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are further described. PMID:27800384

  14. An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Sinpyo; Lee, Inwon; Park, Seong Hyeon; Lee, Cheolmin; Chun, Ho-Hwan; Lim, Hee Chang

    2015-05-01

    An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine is presented. The effects of the Center of Gravity (COG), mooring line spring constant, and fair-lead location on the turbine's motion in response to regular waves are investigated. Experimental results show that for a typical mooring system of a SPAR buoy-type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT), the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of the turbine can be considered negligible. However, the pitch decreases notably as the COG increases. The COG and spring constant of the mooring line have a negligible effect on the fairlead displacement. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis show that the wind turbine motion and its sensitivity to changes in the mooring system and COG are very large near resonant frequencies. The test results can be used to validate numerical simulation tools for FOWTs.

  15. An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Sinpyo; Lee, Inwon; Park, Seong Hyeon; Lee, Cheolmin; Chun, Ho-Hwan; Lim, Hee Chang

    2015-09-01

    An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine is presented. The effects of the Center of Gravity (COG), mooring line spring constant, and fair-lead location on the turbine's motion in response to regular waves are investigated. Experimental results show that for a typical mooring system of a SPAR buoy-type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT), the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of the turbine can be considered negligible. However, the pitch decreases notably as the COG increases. The COG and spring constant of the mooring line have a negligible effect on the fairlead displacement. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis show that the wind turbine motion and its sensitivity to changes in the mooring system and COG are very large near resonant frequencies. The test results can be used to validate numerical simulation tools for FOWTs.

  16. Mixing of two liquid metals on spar payload due to spin-up and spin-down

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schafer, C. F.

    1977-01-01

    Unexpected results from SPAR experiments, directed at obtaining fine dispersions of metal systems that in a 1-g environment tend to segregate very rapidly, were considered. The physical processes occurring in fluid samples, such as the SPAR samples before solidification, were shown to be insufficient to produce a well mixed liquid by the time solidification was initiated. This would result in solidified samples with the type of segregation noted in the SPAR samples. Experimental evidence and analytical arguments are presented.

  17. On-line updating Gaussian mixture model for aircraft wing spar damage evaluation under time-varying boundary condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Chang, Fu-Kuo; Bao, Qiao; Mei, Hanfei

    2014-12-01

    Structural health monitoring technology for aerospace structures has gradually turned from fundamental research to practical implementations. However, real aerospace structures work under time-varying conditions that introduce uncertainties to signal features that are extracted from sensor signals, giving rise to difficulty in reliably evaluating the damage. This paper proposes an online updating Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based damage evaluation method to improve damage evaluation reliability under time-varying conditions. In this method, Lamb-wave-signal variation indexes and principle component analysis (PCA) are adopted to obtain the signal features. A baseline GMM is constructed on the signal features acquired under time-varying conditions when the structure is in a healthy state. By adopting the online updating mechanism based on a moving feature sample set and inner probability structural reconstruction, the probability structures of the GMM can be updated over time with new monitoring signal features to track the damage progress online continuously under time-varying conditions. This method can be implemented without any physical model of damage or structure. A real aircraft wing spar, which is an important load-bearing structure of an aircraft, is adopted to validate the proposed method. The validation results show that the method is effective for edge crack growth monitoring of the wing spar bolts holes under the time-varying changes in the tightness degree of the bolts.

  18. East Spar development: NCC buoy--The vertical submarine

    SciTech Connect

    Boyle, E.C.

    1998-02-01

    The remote East Spar gas/condensate field has been developed using a subsea production system operated by an unmanned navigation, communication, and control (NCC) buoy. The use of this type of system allows control of the field from any convenient location, with the command-response time and the cost of the facility almost completely independent of the distance to the shore or host facility. Successes during the project (such as using model tests to prove the concept and using a tension-leg mooring system to reduce the motion response of the buoy) are discussed and compared to failures, like the weight and size growth of the structure, caused as the design requirements were finalized and external factors changed. The operation and layout of this facility is summarized, showing why it was described as a vertical submarine. Conclusions are drawn about the use of an NCC buoy to develop this field, showing that the main objectives have been achieved. The limited operating experience to date is also considered in the review of the design objectives. The paper concludes with the possibilities for the future of this type of concept.

  19. Variable Stiffness Spar Wind-Tunnel Model Development and Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Florance, James R.; Heeg, Jennifer; Spain, Charles V.; Ivanco, Thomas G.; Wieseman, Carol D.; Lively, Peter S.

    2004-01-01

    The concept of exploiting wing flexibility to improve aerodynamic performance was investigated in the wind tunnel by employing multiple control surfaces and by varying wing structural stiffness via a Variable Stiffness Spar (VSS) mechanism. High design loads compromised the VSS effectiveness because the aerodynamic wind-tunnel model was much stiffer than desired in order to meet the strength requirements. Results from tests of the model include stiffness and modal data, model deformation data, aerodynamic loads, static control surface derivatives, and fuselage standoff pressure data. Effects of the VSS on the stiffness and modal characteristics, lift curve slope, and control surface effectiveness are discussed. The VSS had the most effect on the rolling moment generated by the leading-edge outboard flap at subsonic speeds. The effects of the VSS for the other control surfaces and speed regimes were less. The difficulties encountered and the ability of the VSS to alter the aeroelastic characteristics of the wing emphasize the need for the development of improved design and construction methods for static aeroelastic models. The data collected and presented is valuable in terms of understanding static aeroelastic wind-tunnel model development.

  20. Instrumented sparring vest to aid in martial arts scoring.

    PubMed

    Harrigan, Katie; Logan, Rachel; Sluti, Anne; Rogge, Renee

    2006-01-01

    Competitors in certain martial arts, such as Taekwondo, are required to wear protective vests during competition. This article outlines the design and fabrication of an instrumented martial arts sparring vest that will aid in martial arts scoring, which is currently a work in progress. After fabrication, this instrumented vest and associated system will not only provide the same protection as before modification, but will also report the location and force magnitude of strikes applied to the vest. This will aid in scoring of martial arts competitions, as it will determine if a strike is forceful enough to be considered deliberate and therefore is a valid point-scoring strike. This will make scoring of competitions unbiased and equal for all competitors, something that is difficult to achieve based solely on a judge's assessment by observation. The system will also indicate the probable injury resulting from a strike, for example, no injury, bruising or bone fracture. If a competitor's strike force is excessive and serious injury could result, the system will indicate this so action can be taken, such as penalty or disqualification of a competitor. Both tissue testing and force testing will be conducted prior to vest fabrication to determine estimates of forces that will damage tissue and typical forces experienced during competition. After testing is complete, the system will be fabricated and the testing results will be implemented into the associated software.

  1. Risk analysis and meat hygiene.

    PubMed

    Hathaway, S C

    1993-12-01

    Meat hygiene consists of three major activities: post-mortem inspection; monitoring and surveillance for chemical hazards; and maintenance of good hygienic practice throughout all stages between slaughter and consumption of meat. Risk analysis is an applied science of increasing importance to these activities in the following areas: facilitating the distribution of pre-harvest, harvest and post-harvest inspection resources, proportional to the likelihood of public health and animal health hazards; establishing internationally-harmonized standards and specifications which are consistent and science-based; and improving the safety and wholesomeness of meat and meat products in local and international trade. Risk analysis, in one form or another, is well developed with respect to establishing standards and specifications for chemical hazards; methods for risk analysis of post-mortem meat inspection programmes are beginning to emerge. However, risk analysis of microbiological hazards in meat and meat products presents particular difficulties. All areas of application currently suffer from a lack of international agreement on risk assessment and risk management methodology.

  2. SPAR 5 experiment no. 74-30 agglomeration in immiscible liquids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gelles, S.; Markworth, A. J.

    1979-01-01

    The influence of gravity, cooling rate, and composition on the macro-and microstructure of liquid phase immiscible alloys were researched. Aluminum indium alloys of compositions 30, 40, 70, and 90 weight percent indium were processed aboard two sounding rocket flights, SPAR 2 and SPAR 5. Radiographic and metallographic examination of the SPAR 2 flight and ground base samples showed the expected separation at lg of the ground base alloys into indium rich and aluminum rich layers. The flight alloys produced an aluminum rich core surrounding by indium rich metal. The results obtained from the SPAR 5 40 and 70 weight percent indium alloys were essentially identical to those from SPAR 2. The 30 and 90 weight percent indium alloys also showed massive separation into configuration similar to the 40 and 70 weight percent indium alloys. The 90 weight percent indium alloy showed additional evidence that surface tension induced droplet migration had occurred in this alloy which could at least in part account for the observed structures.

  3. Initial Decision and Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-29

    Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

  4. Direct Adaptive Rejection of Vortex-Induced Disturbances for a Powered SPAR Platform

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    VanZwieten, Tannen S.; Balas, Mark J.; VanZwieten, James H.; Driscoll, Frederick R.

    2009-01-01

    The Rapidly Deployable Stable Platform (RDSP) is a novel vessel designed to be a reconfigurable, stable at-sea platform. It consists of a detachable catamaran and spar, performing missions with the spar extending vertically below the catamaran and hoisting it completely out of the water. Multiple thrusters located along the spar allow it to be actively controlled in this configuration. A controller is presented in this work that uses an adaptive feedback algorithm in conjunction with Direct Adaptive Disturbance Rejection (DADR) to mitigate persistent, vortex-induced disturbances. Given the frequency of a disturbance, the nominal DADR scheme adaptively compensates for its unknown amplitude and phase. This algorithm is extended to adapt to a disturbance frequency that is only coarsely known by including a Phase Locked Loop (PLL). The PLL improves the frequency estimate on-line, allowing the modified controller to reduce vortex-induced motions by more than 95% using achievable thrust inputs.

  5. A Course of Instruction in Risk Analysis.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    Contents: Risk analysis course schedule; Problems and perspectives - an introduction to a course of instruction in risk analysis ; Analytical...techniques; Overview of the process of risk analysis ; Network analysis; RISCA: USALMC’s network analyzer program; Case studies in risk analysis ; Armored...vehicle launched bridge (AVLB); Micom-air defense missile warhead/fuze subsystem performance; Helicopter performance risk analysis ; High performance fuze

  6. Intelligent adversary risk analysis: a bioterrorism risk management model.

    PubMed

    Parnell, Gregory S; Smith, Christopher M; Moxley, Frederick I

    2010-01-01

    The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender-attacker-defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data.

  7. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  8. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  9. Stresses in single-spar wing constructions with incompletely built-up ribs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reinitzhuber, F

    1940-01-01

    It is shown that the force distribution resulting from incomplete ribs in single spar wing structures may be determined with the aid of the shear field method by a statistically indeterminate computation. A numerical computation is given of the force distribution of a wing structure whose two neighboring incomplete ribs with web missing in half the section are torsionally loaded.

  10. Effect of Damaged Mooring Line on Response of Spar with Wind Turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seebai, T.; Sundaravadivelu, R.

    2012-02-01

    Spar platforms have several advantages for deploying wind turbines in offshore for depth beyond 120 m. The merit of spar platform is large range of topside payloads, favourable motions compared to other floating structures and minimum hull/deck interface. This paper addresses the effect of mooring line damages in responses of spar platform subjected to regular waves. A 1:100 scale model of the spar with taut (intact), taut (damaged) and slack (intact) mooring line configuration was studied in the wave basin (30 × 30 × 3 m) in Ocean Engineering Department of IIT Madras. The heave and surge accelerations along with mooring line tension was measured and used. The surge and heave RAO comparison for all three mooring line conditions shows that the effect of damaged mooring line in surge response is negligible whereas in heave response, taut (damaged) will behave similar to slack (intact) condition. The normalized mooring line tension comparison between taut intact and taut damaged configuration is also presented.

  11. Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The complete genome of a sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae vaccine strain 138spar is 1,838,126 bp in size. The genome has 1892 coding sequences and 82 RNAs. The annotation of the genome is added by the NCBI Prokaryotic Genome Annotation Pipeline. The publishing of this genome will allo...

  12. Nano risk analysis: advancing the science for nanomaterials risk management.

    PubMed

    Shatkin, Jo Anne; Abbott, Linda Carolyn; Bradley, Ann E; Canady, Richard Alan; Guidotti, Tee; Kulinowski, Kristen M; Löfstedt, Ragnar E; Louis, Garrick; MacDonell, Margaret; Macdonell, Margaret; Maynard, Andrew D; Paoli, Greg; Sheremeta, Lorraine; Walker, Nigel; White, Ronald; Williams, Richard

    2010-11-01

    Scientists, activists, industry, and governments have raised concerns about health and environmental risks of nanoscale materials. The Society for Risk Analysis convened experts in September 2008 in Washington, DC to deliberate on issues relating to the unique attributes of nanoscale materials that raise novel concerns about health risks. This article reports on the overall themes and findings of the workshop, uncovering the underlying issues for each of these topics that become recurring themes. The attributes of nanoscale particles and other nanomaterials that present novel issues for risk analysis are evaluated in a risk analysis framework, identifying challenges and opportunities for risk analysts and others seeking to assess and manage the risks from emerging nanoscale materials and nanotechnologies. Workshop deliberations and recommendations for advancing the risk analysis and management of nanotechnologies are presented.

  13. Extensive, uplift-related and non-fault-controlled spar precipitation in the Permian Capitan Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loyd, S. J.; Dickson, J. A. D.; Scholle, P. A.; Tripati, A. K.

    2013-12-01

    With time, unlithified grains in sediments become cemented and eventually lithified to form sedimentary rocks. Sedimentary rocks of all ages, lithologies and depositional settings exhibit cements. The timing of cementation within a given sedimentary unit, however, is generally poorly constrained. The formation conditions of the youngest of cement generations are particularly difficult to characterize. Typically, traditional carbonate carbon (δ13Ccarb) and oxygen (δ18Ocarb) isotope analyses are used to characterize precipitation timing and environment. However, ambiguities associated with the interpretation of δ18Ocarb data lead to conflicting hypotheses. The Permian Capitan Formation is one of the most widely studied carbonate sequences and contains extensive calcite cements that have been interpreted to form across a range of diagenetic environments through δ18Ocarb analyses. Here, we present new and previously reported clumped isotope data from calcite spars of Capitan fore-reef slope and equivalent shelf facies (Tansill Formation) in order to constrain mineralization temperatures, provide previously unattainable information concerning precipitation environment, and explore the spatial extent of precipitation events. Spar precipitation temperatures range from ~ 30 to 75 °C and show positive correlation with reconstructed pore water δ18O values, indicating rock-buffered behavior. Evaluation of the data using a simple water-rock model indicates that the fluid(s) involved in diagenesis must have had a significant meteoric component, exhibiting fluid δ18O values approaching - 12‰ (VSMOW). These new data along with previously reported outcrop and core relationships indicate that spar precipitation occurred well after deposition of the Capitan Formation and likely during Tertiary uplift when fluids with such light isotopic signatures would have infiltrated the basin, and not during burial as generally assumed. The meteoric fluids responsible for spar

  14. Numerical modeling of a spar platform tethered by a mooring cable

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Xiangqian; Yoo, Wan-Suk

    2015-07-01

    Virtual simulation is an economical and efficient method in mechanical system design. Numerical modeling of a spar platform, tethered by a mooring cable with a spherical joint is developed for the dynamic simulation of the floating structure in ocean. The geometry modeling of the spar is created using finite element methods. The submerged part of the spar bears the buoyancy, hydrodynamic drag force, and effect of the added mass and Froude-Krylov force. Strip theory is used to sum up the forces acting on the elements. The geometry modeling of the cable is established based on the lumped-mass-and-spring modeling through which the cable is divided into 10 elements. A new element-fixed local frame is used, which is created by the element orientation vector and relative velocity of the fluid, to express the loads acting on the cable. The bottom of the cable is fixed on the seabed by spring forces, while the top of the cable is connected to the bottom of the spar platform by a modified spherical joint. This system suffers the propagating wave and current in the X-direction and the linear wave theory is applied for setting of the propagating wave. Based on the numerical modeling, the displacement-load relationships are analyzed, and the simulation results of the numerical modeling are compared with those by the commercial simulation code, ProteusDS. The comparison indicates that the numerical modeling of the spar platform tethered by a mooring cable is well developed, which provides an instruction for the optimization of a floating structure tethered by a mooring cable system.

  15. North energy system risk analysis features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prokhorov, V. A.; Prokhorov, D. V.

    2015-12-01

    Risk indicator analysis for a decentralized energy system of the North was carried out. Based on analysis of damages caused by accidents at energy systems, their structure is selected, and a North energy system risk determination method was proposed.

  16. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant... sensitive personal information, the risk analysis must also contain operational recommendations for responding to the data breach. Each risk analysis, regardless of findings and operational...

  17. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant... sensitive personal information, the risk analysis must also contain operational recommendations for responding to the data breach. Each risk analysis, regardless of findings and operational...

  18. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant... sensitive personal information, the risk analysis must also contain operational recommendations for responding to the data breach. Each risk analysis, regardless of findings and operational...

  19. SHRIMP U-Pb ages of xenotime and monazite from the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana: Implications for ore genesis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aleinikoff, John N.; Hayes, Timothy S.; Evans, Karl V.; Mazdab, Frank K.; Pillers, Renee M.; Fanning, C. Mark

    2012-01-01

    Xenotime occurs as epitaxial overgrowths on detrital zircons in the Mesoproterozoic Revett Formation (Belt Supergroup) at the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana. The deposit formed during diagenesis of Revett strata, where oxidizing metal-bearing hydrothermal fluids encountered a reducing zone. Samples for geochronology were collected from several mineral zones. Xenotime overgrowths (1–30 μm wide) were found in polished thin sections from five ore and near-ore zones (chalcocite-chlorite, bornite-calcite, galena-calcite, chalcopyrite-ankerite, and pyrite-calcite), but not in more distant zones across the region. Thirty-two in situ SHRIMP U-Pb analyses on xenotime overgrowths yield a weighted average of 207Pb/206Pb ages of 1409 ± 8 Ma, interpreted as the time of mineralization. This age is about 40 to 60 m.y. after deposition of the Revett Formation. Six other xenotime overgrowths formed during a younger event at 1304 ± 19 Ma. Several isolated grains of xenotime have 207Pb/206Pb ages in the range of 1.67 to 1.51 Ga, and thus are considered detrital in origin. Trace element data can distinguish Spar Lake xenotimes of different origins. Based on in situ SHRIMP analysis, detrital xenotime has heavy rare earth elements-enriched patterns similar to those of igneous xenotime, whereas xenotime overgrowths of inferred hydrothermal origin have hump-shaped (i.e., middle rare earth elements-enriched) patterns. The two ages of hydrothermal xenotime can be distinguished by slightly different rare earth elements patterns. In addition, 1409 Ma xenotime overgrowths have higher Eu and Gd contents than the 1304 Ma overgrowths. Most xenotime overgrowths from the Spar Lake deposit have elevated As concentrations, further suggesting a genetic relationship between the xenotime formation and Cu-Ag mineralization.

  20. General Risk Analysis Methodological Implications to Explosives Risk Management Systems,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    An investigation sponsored by the National Science Foundation has produced as one of its results a survey and evaluation of risk analysis methodologies...This paper presents some implications of the survey to risk analysis and decision making for explosives hazards such as may ultimately be

  1. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W.

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  2. Delamination Damage Analyses of FRP Composite Spar Wingskin Joints with Modified Elliptical Adhesive Load Coupler Profile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panigrahi, S. K.; Pradhan, B.

    2008-11-01

    Three-dimensional non-linear finite element analyses (FEA) for delamination damage onset and its growth in Graphite Fiber Reinforced Plastic (GFRP) composite Spar Wingskin Joints (SWJ) with modified elliptical adhesive load coupler profile for varied ratios of base width to height of the spar have been presented in this paper. Both in-plane and out-of-plane normal and shear stress variations on the interfacial surface of the wingskin between the spar and the wingskin have been evaluated. Coupled stress failure criterion has been used to predict the locations of initiation of failures due to delamination induced damages. Based on the stress and delamination damage analyses, suitable geometry of the modified elliptical adhesive load coupler profile of the SWJ has been recommended. The delamination damage has been observed to be initiated from the toe-end of the interfacial surface of the spar and the wingskin of the SWJ. Subsequently, the delamination propagations have also been studied by calculating the individual and the total Mode of Strain Energy Release Rate (SERR) along the delamination front using Modified Crack Closure Integral (MCCI) technique based on Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) approach. It is seen that SERR variations along the delamination front i.e. across the width of the SWJ are not uniform. Therefore, a straight delamination front may grow into a curved delamination front as the delamination propagates. Also, it is found that Mode I SERR ( G I) governs the delamination propagation predominantly for the SWJ. Accordingly, suitable delamination arresting mechanism has been suggested.

  3. Effect of element density on the NASTRAN calculated mechanical and thermal stresses of a spar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    A NASTRAN model of a spar was examined to determine the sensitivity of calculated axial thermal stresses and bending stresses to changes in element density of the model. The thermal stresses calculated with three different element densities resulted in drastically differing values. The position of the constraint also significantly affected the value of the calculated thermal stresses. Mechanical stresses calculated from an applied loading were insensitive to element density.

  4. Design, fabrication, and test of a steel spar wind turbine blade

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sullivan, T. L.; Sirocky, P. J., Jr.; Viterna, L. A.

    1979-01-01

    The design and fabrication of wind turbine blades based on 60 foot steel spars are discussed. Performance and blade load information is given and compared to analytical prediction. In addition, performance is compared to that of the original MOD-O aluminum blades. Costs for building the two blades are given, and a projection is made for the cost in mass production. Design improvements to reduce weight and improve fatigue life are suggested.

  5. Demonstration of Enabling Spar-Shell Cooling Technology in Gas Turbines

    SciTech Connect

    Downs, James

    2014-12-29

    In this Advanced Turbine Program-funded Phase III project, Florida Turbine Technologies, Inc. (FTT) has developed and tested, at a pre-commercial prototypescale, spar-shell turbine airfoils in a commercial gas turbine. The airfoil development is based upon FTT’s research and development to date in Phases I and II of Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) grants. During this program, FTT has partnered with an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), Siemens Energy, to produce sparshell turbine components for the first pre-commercial prototype test in an F-Class industrial gas turbine engine and has successfully completed validation testing. This project will further the commercialization of this new technology in F-frame and other highly cooled turbine airfoil applications. FTT, in cooperation with Siemens, intends to offer the spar-shell vane as a first-tier supplier for retrofit applications and new large frame industrial gas turbines. The market for the spar-shell vane for these machines is huge. According to Forecast International, 3,211 new gas turbines units (in the >50MW capacity size range) will be ordered in ten years from 2007 to 2016. FTT intends to enter the market in a low rate initial production. After one year of successful extended use, FTT will quickly ramp up production and sales, with a target to capture 1% of the market within the first year and 10% within 5 years (2020).

  6. Molecular characterization of Anthurium genotypes by using DNA fingerprinting and SPAR markers.

    PubMed

    Souza Neto, J D; Soares, T C B; Motta, L B; Cabral, P D S; Silva, J A

    2014-07-02

    We characterized single primer amplification reaction (SPAR) molecular markers from 20 genotypes of Anthurium andraeanum Lind., including 3 from commercial varieties and 17 from 2 communities in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil. Twenty-four SPAR, consisting of 7 random amplified polymorphic DNA and 17 inter-simple sequence repeat markers were used to estimate the genetic diversity of 20 Anthurium accessions. The set of SPAR markers generated 288 bands and showed an average polymorphism percentage of 93.39%, ranging from 71.43 to 100%. The polymorphism information content (PIC) of the random amplified polymorphic DNA primers averaged 0.364 and ranged from 0.258 to 0.490. Primer OPF 06 showed the lowest PIC, while OPAM 14 was the highest. The average PIC of the inter-simple sequence repeat primers was 0.299, with values ranging from 0.196 to 0.401. Primer UBC 845 had the lowest PIC (0.196), while primer UCB 810 had the highest (0.401). By using the complement of Jaccard's similarity index and unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean clustering, 5 clusters were formed with a cophenetic correlation coefficient of 0.8093, indicating an acceptable clustering consistency. However, no genotype clustering patterns agreed with the morphological data. The Anthurium genotypes investigated in this study are a germplasm source for conservational research and may be used in improvement programs for this species.

  7. SPAR X Technical Report for Experiment 76-22 Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bethin, J.

    1984-01-01

    The effects of gravity on Bridgman-Stockbarger directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi were studied in reduced gravity aboard the SPAR X flight and compared to normal-gravity investigations and previous eutectic Bi/MnBi SPAR flight experiments. The directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi results in either a dendritic structure connected with local cooperative growth or a coupled low volume fraction faceted/non faceted aligned rod eutectic whose Mn macrosegregation, MnBi rod size, interrod spacing, and thermal and magnetic properties are sensitive functions of the solidification processing conditions. Two hypoeutectic and two hypereutectic samples were solidified during 605 sec of furnace travel, with an initial 265 sec low-gravity interval. Comparison Earth-gravity samples were solidified in the same furance assembly under identical processing conditions. Macrosegregation in the low-g samples was consistent with a metastable increase in Mn solubility in the Bi matrix, in partial agreement with previous Bi/MnBi SPAR findings of MnBi volume reduction.

  8. Postsynaptic PDLIM5 / Enigma Homolog binds SPAR and causes dendritic spine shrinkage

    PubMed Central

    Herrick, Scott; Evers, Danielle M.; Lee, Ji-Yun; Udagawa, Noriko; Pak, Daniel T.S.

    2009-01-01

    Dendritic spine morphology is thought to play important roles in synaptic development and plasticity, and morphological derangements in spines are correlated with several neurological disorders. Here, we identified an interaction between Spine-Associated RapGAP (SPAR), a postsynaptic protein that reorganizes actin cytoskeleton and drives dendritic spine head growth, and PDLIM5 / Enigma Homolog (ENH), a PDZ-LIM (postsynaptic density-95/Discs large/zona occludens 1-Lin11/Isl-1/Mec3) family member. PDLIM5 has been implicated in susceptibility to bipolar disorder, major depression and schizophrenia but its function in neurological disease is poorly understood. We show that PDLIM5 is present in the postsynaptic density, where it promotes decreased dendritic spine head size and longer, filopodia-like morphology. Conversely, RNA interference against PDLIM5 or loss of PDLIM5 interaction with SPAR caused increased spine head diameter. Furthermore, PKC activation promoted delivery of PDLIM5 into dendritic spines and increased its spine colocalization with SPAR. These data reveal new postsynaptic functions for PDLIM5 in shrinkage of dendritic spines that may be relevant to its association with psychiatric illness. PMID:19900557

  9. Biomechanical head impact characteristics during sparring practice sessions in high school taekwondo athletes.

    PubMed

    O'Sullivan, David M; Fife, Gabriel P

    2017-06-01

    OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to monitor head impact magnitude and characteristics, such as impact location and frequency, at high school taekwondo sparring sessions. METHODS Eight male high school taekwondo athletes participated in this study. The head impact characteristics were recorded by X-Patch, a wireless accelerometer and gyroscope, during 6 taekwondo sparring sessions. The outcome measures were the peak linear acceleration ( g = 9.81 msec(2)), peak rotational acceleration, rotational velocity, and Head Injury Criterion. RESULTS A total of 689 impacts occurred over 6 sessions involving the 8 athletes. There was an average of 24 impacts per 100 minutes, and there were significant differences in the frequency of impacts among both the sessions and individual athletes. In order of frequency, the most commonly hit locations were the side (38.2%), back (35.7%), and front (23.8%) of the head. CONCLUSIONS The data indicate that there is a relatively high number of head impacts experienced by taekwondo athletes during sparring practice. According to the rotational acceleration predicting impact severity published in previous research, 17.1% of the impacts were deemed to be a moderate and 15.5% were deemed to be severe.

  10. Internal resonances for heave, roll and pitch modes of a spar platform considering wave and vortex-induced loads in the main roll resonance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wei; Tang, You-gang; Liu, Li-qin; Li, Yan; Wang, Bin

    2017-08-01

    We present a study of the nonlinear coupling internal resonance for the heave roll and pitch performance of a spar platform under the wave and vortex-induced loads when the ratio of the frequencies of heave, roll and pitch are approximately 2:1:1. In consideration of varying wet surface, the three DOFs nonlinear coupled equations are established for the spar platform under the effect of the first-order wave loads in the heave and pitch, and vortexinduced loads in the roll. By utilizing the method of multi-scales when the vortex-induced frequency is close to the natural roll frequency, the first-order perturbation solution is obtained analytically and further validated by the numerical integration. Sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of the damping and the internal detuning parameter. Two cases with internal resonance are shown. The first case is that no saturation phenomenon exists under small vortex-induced loads. The first order perturbation solution illustrates that only the vortex-induced frequency motion in roll and the super-harmonic frequency motion in heave are excited. The second case is that the vortex-induced loads are large enough to excite the pitch and a saturation phenomenon in the heave mode follows. The results show that there is no steady response occurrence for some cases. For these cases chaos occurs and large amplitudes response can be induced by the vortex-induced excitation.

  11. Sensitivity analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Zwieterin, M H; van Gerwen, S J

    2000-07-15

    The occurrence of foodborne disease remains a widespread problem in both the developing and the developed world. A systematic and quantitative evaluation of food safety is important to control the risk of foodborne diseases. World-wide, many initiatives are being taken to develop quantitative risk analysis. However, the quantitative evaluation of food safety in all its aspects is very complex, especially since in many cases specific parameter values are not available. Often many variables have large statistical variability while the quantitative effect of various phenomena is unknown. Therefore, sensitivity analysis can be a useful tool to determine the main risk-determining phenomena, as well as the aspects that mainly determine the inaccuracy in the risk estimate. This paper presents three stages of sensitivity analysis. First, deterministic analysis selects the most relevant determinants for risk. Overlooking of exceptional, but relevant cases is prevented by a second, worst-case analysis. This analysis finds relevant process steps in worst-case situations, and shows the relevance of variations of factors for risk. The third, stochastic analysis, studies the effects of variations of factors for the variability of risk estimates. Care must be taken that the assumptions made as well as the results are clearly communicated. Stochastic risk estimates are, like deterministic ones, just as good (or bad) as the available data, and the stochastic analysis must not be used to mask lack of information. Sensitivity analysis is a valuable tool in quantitative risk assessment by determining critical aspects and effects of variations.

  12. Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

    PubMed

    Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal

    2017-08-11

    Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Carbon Fiber Risk Analysis. [conference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    The scope and status of the effort to assess the risks associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers from civil aircraft is presented. Vulnerability of electrical and electronic equipment to carbon fibers, dispersal of carbon fibers, effectiveness of filtering systems, impact of fiber induced failures, and risk methodology are among the topics covered.

  14. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    PubMed

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Risk Analysis and Uncertainty: Implications for Counselling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hassenzahl, David

    2004-01-01

    Over the past two decades, the risk analysis community has made substantial advances in understanding and describing uncertainty. Uncertainty is ubiquitous, complex, both quantitative and qualitative in nature, and often irreducible. Uncertainty thus creates a challenge when using risk analysis to evaluate the rationality of group and individual…

  16. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chueng, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a risk management approach that allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainties, and to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Demonstrate a planning and risk analysis framework that tightly integrates mathematical optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to solve complex problems.

  17. Resource allocation using risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T. F.; Eisenhawer, S. W.

    2003-01-01

    Allocating limited resources among competing priorities is an important problem in management. In this paper we describe an approach to resource allocation using risk as a metric. We call this approach the Logic-Evolved Decision (LED) approach because we use logic-models to generate an exhaustive set of competing options and to describe the often highly complex model used for evaluating the risk reduction achieved by different resource allocations among these options. The risk evaluation then proceeds using probabilistic or linguistic input data.

  18. Risk analysis and risk management in an uncertain world.

    PubMed

    Kunreuther, Howard

    2002-08-01

    The tragic attacks of September 11 and the bioterrorist threats with respect to anthrax that followed have raised a set of issues regarding how we deal with events where there is considerable ambiguity and uncertainty about the likelihood of their occurrence and their potential consequences. This paper discusses how one can link the tools of risk assessment and our knowledge of risk perception to develop risk management options for dealing with extreme events. In particular, it suggests ways that the members of the Society for Risk Analysis can apply their expertise and talent to the risks associated with terrorism and discusses the changing roles of the public and private sectors in dealing with extreme events.

  19. Carbon Fiber Risk Analysis: Conclusions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    It was concluded that preliminary estimates indicate that the public risk due to accidental release of carbon fiber from air transport aircraft is small. It was also concluded that further work is required to increase confidence in these estimates.

  20. Supply-Chain Risk Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-06-07

    security score upon first submission – 3/1/2010 Measured Against CWE/SANS Top-25 Errors 24 SQL Database Query Output: All records with ID = 48983...exploitable design or coding errors • Very little data for software supply chains 8 Software Supply Chain Complexity-1 Composite inherits risk from any point... Relative Effort Operational Capabilities Knowledge of Supplier Capabilities Knowledge of Product Attributes 13 Supply-Chain Risk Categories Category

  1. Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

    2017-04-01

    Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

  2. Feasibility of producing closed-cell metal foams in a zero-gravity environment from sputter deposited inert gas-bearing metals and alloys. Post-flight technical report, SPAR flight 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patten, J. W.; Greenwell, E. N.

    1976-01-01

    Metallography from experiment 24-10 obtained on the second space processing applications rocket (SPAR) flight is discussed. Results are considered along with results from the related experiments on the first SPAR flight. Conclusions are presented.

  3. [Profitability analysis of clinical risk management].

    PubMed

    Banduhn, C; Schlüchtermann, J

    2013-05-01

    Medical treatment entails many risks. Increasingly, the negative impact of these risks on patients' health is revealed and corresponding cases are reported to hospital insurances. A systematic clinical risk management can reduce risks. This analysis is designed to demonstrate the financial profitability of implementing a clinical risk management. The decision analysis of a clinical risk management includes information from published articles and studies, publicly available data from the Federal Statistical Office and expert interviews and was conducted in 2 scenarios. The 2 scenarios result from a maximum and minimum value of preventable adverse events reported in Germany. The planning horizon was a 1-year ­period. The analysis was performed from a hospital's perspective. Subsequently, a threshold-analysis of the reduction of preventable adverse events as an effect of clinical risk management was executed. Furthermore, a static capital budgeting over a 5-year period was added, complemented by a risk analysis. Regarding the given assumptions, the implementation of clinical risk management would save about 53 000 € or 175 000 €, respectively, for an average hospital within the first year. Only if the reduction of preventable adverse events is as low as 5.6 or 2.8%, respectively, will the implementation of clinical risk management produce losses. According to a comprehensive risk simulation this happens in less than one out of 1 million cases. The investment in a clinical risk management, based on a 5-year period and an interest rate of 5%, has an annually pay off of 81 000 € or 211 000 €, respectively. The implementation of clinical risk management in a hospital pays off within the first year. In the subsequent years the surplus is even higher due to the elimination of implementation costs. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  4. Bridging the two cultures of risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Jasanoff, S. )

    1993-04-01

    During the past 15 years, risk analysis has come of age as an interdisciplinary field of remarkable breadth, nurturing connections among fields as diverse as mathematics, biostatistics, toxicology, and engineering on one hand, and law, psychology, sociology, and economics on the other hand. In this editorial, the author addresses the question: What has the presence of social scientists in the network meant to the substantive development of the field of risk analysis The answers offered here discuss the substantial progress in bridging the two cultures of risk analysis. Emphasis is made of the continual need for monitoring risk analysis. Topics include: the micro-worlds of risk assessment; constraining assumptions; and exchange programs. 14 refs.

  5. Preference Functions for Spatial Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Keller, L Robin; Simon, Jay

    2017-09-07

    When outcomes are defined over a geographic region, measures of spatial risk regarding these outcomes can be more complex than traditional measures of risk. One of the main challenges is the need for a cardinal preference function that incorporates the spatial nature of the outcomes. We explore preference conditions that will yield the existence of spatial measurable value and utility functions, and discuss their application to spatial risk analysis. We also present a simple example on household freshwater usage across regions to demonstrate how such functions can be assessed and applied. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Efficient preliminary floating offshore wind turbine design and testing methodologies and application to a concrete spar design

    PubMed Central

    Matha, Denis; Sandner, Frank; Molins, Climent; Campos, Alexis; Cheng, Po Wen

    2015-01-01

    The current key challenge in the floating offshore wind turbine industry and research is on designing economic floating systems that can compete with fixed-bottom offshore turbines in terms of levelized cost of energy. The preliminary platform design, as well as early experimental design assessments, are critical elements in the overall design process. In this contribution, a brief review of current floating offshore wind turbine platform pre-design and scaled testing methodologies is provided, with a focus on their ability to accommodate the coupled dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind systems. The exemplary design and testing methodology for a monolithic concrete spar platform as performed within the European KIC AFOSP project is presented. Results from the experimental tests compared to numerical simulations are presented and analysed and show very good agreement for relevant basic dynamic platform properties. Extreme and fatigue loads and cost analysis of the AFOSP system confirm the viability of the presented design process. In summary, the exemplary application of the reduced design and testing methodology for AFOSP confirms that it represents a viable procedure during pre-design of floating offshore wind turbine platforms. PMID:25583870

  7. Efficient preliminary floating offshore wind turbine design and testing methodologies and application to a concrete spar design.

    PubMed

    Matha, Denis; Sandner, Frank; Molins, Climent; Campos, Alexis; Cheng, Po Wen

    2015-02-28

    The current key challenge in the floating offshore wind turbine industry and research is on designing economic floating systems that can compete with fixed-bottom offshore turbines in terms of levelized cost of energy. The preliminary platform design, as well as early experimental design assessments, are critical elements in the overall design process. In this contribution, a brief review of current floating offshore wind turbine platform pre-design and scaled testing methodologies is provided, with a focus on their ability to accommodate the coupled dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind systems. The exemplary design and testing methodology for a monolithic concrete spar platform as performed within the European KIC AFOSP project is presented. Results from the experimental tests compared to numerical simulations are presented and analysed and show very good agreement for relevant basic dynamic platform properties. Extreme and fatigue loads and cost analysis of the AFOSP system confirm the viability of the presented design process. In summary, the exemplary application of the reduced design and testing methodology for AFOSP confirms that it represents a viable procedure during pre-design of floating offshore wind turbine platforms.

  8. Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model (PREPRINT)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-02-20

    4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a...OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT Same as Report (SAR) 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 29 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT unclassified b. ABSTRACT...Society for Risk Analysis, February 20, 2009    1. INTELLIGENT ADVERSARY RISK  ANALISIS  IS DIFFERENT THAN  HAZARD RISK ANALYSIS  Risk analysis has

  9. Optimal Topology of Aircraft Rib and Spar Structures under Aeroelastic Loads

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanford, Bret K.; Dunning, Peter D.

    2014-01-01

    Several topology optimization problems are conducted within the ribs and spars of a wing box. It is desired to locate the best position of lightening holes, truss/cross-bracing, etc. A variety of aeroelastic metrics are isolated for each of these problems: elastic wing compliance under trim loads and taxi loads, stress distribution, and crushing loads. Aileron effectiveness under a constant roll rate is considered, as are dynamic metrics: natural vibration frequency and flutter. This approach helps uncover the relationship between topology and aeroelasticity in subsonic transport wings, and can therefore aid in understanding the complex aircraft design process which must eventually consider all these metrics and load cases simultaneously.

  10. 2. Spar, bramble, and the larger cutters storis (W38) make ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    2. Spar, bramble, and the larger cutters storis (W38) make their way through arctic ice during the first transit of the northwest passage by a U.S. vessel. The lead 180 has a weight suspended over its starboard side. By swinging this weight back and forth across the centerline, the vessel can rock to free herself from ice. - U.S. Coast Guard Buoy Tenders, 180' Class, U.S. Coast Guard Headquarters, 2100 Second Street Southwest, Washington, District of Columbia, DC

  11. Criteria for representing circular arc and sine wave spar webs by non-curved elements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    The basic problem of how to simply represent a curved web of a spar in a finite element structural model was addressed. The ratio of flat web to curved web axial deformations and longitudinal rotations were calculated using NASTRAN models. Multiplying factors were developed from these calculations for various web thicknesses. These multiplying factors can be applied directly to the area and moment of inertia inputs of the finite element model. This allows the thermal stress relieving configurations of sine wave and circular arc webs to be simply accounted for in finite element structural models.

  12. A comparison of measured and calculated thermal stresses in a hybrid metal matrix composite spar cap element

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.; Taylor, A. H.; Sakata, I. F.

    1985-01-01

    A hybrid spar of titanium with an integrally brazed composite, consisting of an aluminum matrix reinforced with boron-carbide-coated fibers, was heated in an oven and the resulting thermal stresses were measured. Uniform heating of the spar in an oven resulted in thermal stresses arising from the effects of dissimilar materials and anisotropy of the metal matrix composite. Thermal stresses were calculated from a finite element structural model using anisotropic material properties deduced from constituent properties and rules of mixtures. Comparisons of calculated thermal stresses with measured thermal stresses on the spar are presented. It was shown that failure to account for anisotropy in the metal matrix composite elements would result in large errors in correlating measured and calculated thermal stresses. It was concluded that very strong material characterization efforts are required to predict accurate thermal stresses in anisotropic composite structures.

  13. Calibration and Validation of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Model using the FAST Dynamic Simulation Tool: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2012-11-01

    In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states.

  14. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  15. Dealing with Uncertainty in Chemical Risk Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-12-01

    0 * (OF 41 C-DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN - CHEMICAL RISK ANALYSIS THESIS David S. Clement Captain, USAF AFIT/GOR/MA/8CD-2 DT[C. ~ELECTEf 2 9 MAR 18...AFIT/GOR/MA/88D-2 DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN CHEMICAL RISK ANALYSIS THESIS David S. Clement Captain, USAF AFIT/GOR/MA/88D-2 DTIC V ~ 27989 Approved...for public release; distribution unlimited S . AFIT/GOR/KA/88D-2 DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN CHEMICAL RISK ANALYSIS THESIS Presented to the Faculty

  16. CUMULATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cumulative Risk Analysis for Organophosphorus Pesticides
    R. Woodrow Setzer, Jr. NHEERL MD-74, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711

    The US EPA has recently completed a risk assessment of the effects of exposure to 33 organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) through the diet, water, and resi...

  17. CUMULATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cumulative Risk Analysis for Organophosphorus Pesticides
    R. Woodrow Setzer, Jr. NHEERL MD-74, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711

    The US EPA has recently completed a risk assessment of the effects of exposure to 33 organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) through the diet, water, and resi...

  18. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  19. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant... degree of protection for the data, e.g., unencrypted, plain text; (6) Time the data has been out of VA...

  20. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant... degree of protection for the data, e.g., unencrypted, plain text; (6) Time the data has been out of VA...

  1. Cassini nuclear risk analysis with SPARRC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ha, Chuong T.; Deane, Nelson A.

    1998-01-01

    The nuclear risk analysis of the Cassini mission is one of the most comprehensive risk analyses ever conducted for a space nuclear mission. The complexity of postulated accident scenarios and source term definitions, from launch to Earth swingby, has necessitated an extensive series of analyses in order to provide best-estimates of potential consequence results and bounding uncertainty intervals. The Space Accident Radiological Release and Consequence (SPARRC) family of codes, developed by Lockheed Martin to analyze polydispersed source terms and a combination of different atmospheric transport patterns, have been used for the Cassini Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). By identifying dominant contributors, the nuclear risk of each mission segment is understood with a high level of confidence. This paper provides the overall analysis process and insights developed from the risk analysis.

  2. Cassini nuclear risk analysis with SPARRC

    SciTech Connect

    Ha, Chuong T.; Deane, Nelson A.

    1998-01-15

    The nuclear risk analysis of the Cassini mission is one of the most comprehensive risk analyses ever conducted for a space nuclear mission. The complexity of postulated accident scenarios and source term definitions, from launch to Earth swingby, has necessitated an extensive series of analyses in order to provide best-estimates of potential consequence results and bounding uncertainty intervals. The Space Accident Radiological Release and Consequence (SPARRC) family of codes, developed by Lockheed Martin to analyze polydispersed source terms and a combination of different atmospheric transport patterns, have been used for the Cassini Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). By identifying dominant contributors, the nuclear risk of each mission segment is understood with a high level of confidence. This paper provides the overall analysis process and insights developed from the risk analysis.

  3. Cassini nuclear risk analysis with SPARRC

    SciTech Connect

    Ha, C.T.; Deane, N.A.

    1998-01-01

    The nuclear risk analysis of the Cassini mission is one of the most comprehensive risk analyses ever conducted for a space nuclear mission. The complexity of postulated accident scenarios and source term definitions, from launch to Earth swingby, has necessitated an extensive series of analyses in order to provide best-estimates of potential consequence results and bounding uncertainty intervals. The Space Accident Radiological Release and Consequence (SPARRC) family of codes, developed by Lockheed Martin to analyze polydispersed source terms and a combination of different atmospheric transport patterns, have been used for the Cassini Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). By identifying dominant contributors, the nuclear risk of each mission segment is understood with a high level of confidence. This paper provides the overall analysis process and insights developed from the risk analysis. {copyright} {ital 1998 American Institute of Physics.}

  4. Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.

  5. RISK ANALYSIS, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE: GETTING MORE FROM OUR DATA

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression are common statistical techniques used to analyze agronomic experimental data and determine significant differences among yields due to treatments or other experimental factors. Risk analysis provides an alternate and complimentary examination of the same...

  6. Adversarial risk analysis for counterterrorism modeling.

    PubMed

    Rios, Jesus; Rios Insua, David

    2012-05-01

    Recent large-scale terrorist attacks have raised interest in models for resource allocation against terrorist threats. The unifying theme in this area is the need to develop methods for the analysis of allocation decisions when risks stem from the intentional actions of intelligent adversaries. Most approaches to these problems have a game-theoretic flavor although there are also several interesting decision-analytic-based proposals. One of them is the recently introduced framework for adversarial risk analysis, which deals with decision-making problems that involve intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. We explore how adversarial risk analysis addresses some standard counterterrorism models: simultaneous defend-attack models, sequential defend-attack-defend models, and sequential defend-attack models with private information. For each model, we first assess critically what would be a typical game-theoretic approach and then provide the corresponding solution proposed by the adversarial risk analysis framework, emphasizing how to coherently assess a predictive probability model of the adversary's actions, in a context in which we aim at supporting decisions of a defender versus an attacker. This illustrates the application of adversarial risk analysis to basic counterterrorism models that may be used as basic building blocks for more complex risk analysis of counterterrorism problems.

  7. Fire Risk Implications in Safety Analysis Reports

    SciTech Connect

    Blanchard, A.

    1999-03-31

    Fire can be a significant risk for facilities that store and handle radiological material. Such events must be evaluated as part of a comprehensive safety analysis. SRS has been developing methods to evaluate radiological fire risk in such facilities. These methods combined with the analysis techniques proposed by DOE-STD-3009-94 have provided a better understanding of how fire risks in nuclear facilities should be managed. To ensure that these new insights are properly disseminated the DOE Savannah River Office and the Defense Nuclear Facility Safety Board (DNFSB) requested Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) prepare this paper.

  8. Fuzzy risk analysis for nuclear safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Zardecki, A.

    1993-01-01

    Analysis of a safeguards system, based on the notion of fuzzy sets and linguistic variables, concerns such as complexity and inherent imprecision in estimating the possibility of loss or compromise. The automated risk analysis allows the risk to be determined for an entire system based on estimates for lowest level components and the component proportion. In addition, for each component (asset) the most effective combination of protection mechanisms against a given set of threats is determined. A distinction between bar and featured risk is made.

  9. Relative risk regression analysis of epidemiologic data.

    PubMed

    Prentice, R L

    1985-11-01

    Relative risk regression methods are described. These methods provide a unified approach to a range of data analysis problems in environmental risk assessment and in the study of disease risk factors more generally. Relative risk regression methods are most readily viewed as an outgrowth of Cox's regression and life model. They can also be viewed as a regression generalization of more classical epidemiologic procedures, such as that due to Mantel and Haenszel. In the context of an epidemiologic cohort study, relative risk regression methods extend conventional survival data methods and binary response (e.g., logistic) regression models by taking explicit account of the time to disease occurrence while allowing arbitrary baseline disease rates, general censorship, and time-varying risk factors. This latter feature is particularly relevant to many environmental risk assessment problems wherein one wishes to relate disease rates at a particular point in time to aspects of a preceding risk factor history. Relative risk regression methods also adapt readily to time-matched case-control studies and to certain less standard designs. The uses of relative risk regression methods are illustrated and the state of development of these procedures is discussed. It is argued that asymptotic partial likelihood estimation techniques are now well developed in the important special case in which the disease rates of interest have interpretations as counting process intensity functions. Estimation of relative risks processes corresponding to disease rates falling outside this class has, however, received limited attention. The general area of relative risk regression model criticism has, as yet, not been thoroughly studied, though a number of statistical groups are studying such features as tests of fit, residuals, diagnostics and graphical procedures. Most such studies have been restricted to exponential form relative risks as have simulation studies of relative risk estimation

  10. Starlink corn: a risk analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Bucchini, Luca; Goldman, Lynn R

    2002-01-01

    Modern biotechnology has dramatically increased our ability to alter the agronomic traits of plants. Among the novel traits that biotechnology has made available, an important group includes Bacillus thuringiensis-derived insect resistance. This technology has been applied to potatoes, cotton, and corn. Benefits of Bt crops, and biotechnology generally, can be realized only if risks are assessed and managed properly. The case of Starlink corn, a plant modified with a gene that encodes the Bt protein Cry9c, was a severe test of U.S. regulatory agencies. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency had restricted its use to animal feed due to concern about the potential for allergenicity. However, Starlink corn was later found throughout the human food supply, resulting in food recalls by the Food and Drug Administration and significant disruption of the food supply. Here we examine the regulatory history of Starlink, the assessment framework employed by the U.S. government, assumptions and information gaps, and the key elements of government efforts to manage the product. We explore the impacts on regulations, science, and society and conclude that only significant advances in our understanding of food allergies and improvements in monitoring and enforcement will avoid similar events in the future. Specifically, we need to develop a stronger fundamental basis for predicting allergic sensitization and reactions if novel proteins are to be introduced in this fashion. Mechanisms are needed to assure that worker and community aeroallergen risks are considered. Requirements are needed for the development of valid assays so that enforcement and post market surveillance activities can be conducted. PMID:11781159

  11. Starlink corn: a risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Bucchini, Luca; Goldman, Lynn R

    2002-01-01

    Modern biotechnology has dramatically increased our ability to alter the agronomic traits of plants. Among the novel traits that biotechnology has made available, an important group includes Bacillus thuringiensis-derived insect resistance. This technology has been applied to potatoes, cotton, and corn. Benefits of Bt crops, and biotechnology generally, can be realized only if risks are assessed and managed properly. The case of Starlink corn, a plant modified with a gene that encodes the Bt protein Cry9c, was a severe test of U.S. regulatory agencies. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency had restricted its use to animal feed due to concern about the potential for allergenicity. However, Starlink corn was later found throughout the human food supply, resulting in food recalls by the Food and Drug Administration and significant disruption of the food supply. Here we examine the regulatory history of Starlink, the assessment framework employed by the U.S. government, assumptions and information gaps, and the key elements of government efforts to manage the product. We explore the impacts on regulations, science, and society and conclude that only significant advances in our understanding of food allergies and improvements in monitoring and enforcement will avoid similar events in the future. Specifically, we need to develop a stronger fundamental basis for predicting allergic sensitization and reactions if novel proteins are to be introduced in this fashion. Mechanisms are needed to assure that worker and community aeroallergen risks are considered. Requirements are needed for the development of valid assays so that enforcement and post market surveillance activities can be conducted.

  12. Risk Analysis Training within the Army: Current Status, Future Trends,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    risk analysis . Since risk analysis training in the Army is...become involved in risk analysis training. He reviews all risk analysis -related training done in any course at the Center. Also provided is information...expected to use the training. Then the future trend in risk analysis training is presented. New course, course changes and hardware/software changes that will make risk analysis more palatable are

  13. Risk-stratified imputation in survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Richard E; Adragni, Kofi P; Tiwari, Hemant K; Voeks, Jenifer H; Brott, Thomas G; Howard, George

    2013-08-01

    Censoring that is dependent on covariates associated with survival can arise in randomized trials due to changes in recruitment and eligibility criteria to minimize withdrawals, potentially leading to biased treatment effect estimates. Imputation approaches have been proposed to address censoring in survival analysis; while these approaches may provide unbiased estimates of treatment effects, imputation of a large number of outcomes may over- or underestimate the associated variance based on the imputation pool selected. We propose an improved method, risk-stratified imputation, as an alternative to address withdrawal related to the risk of events in the context of time-to-event analyses. Our algorithm performs imputation from a pool of replacement subjects with similar values of both treatment and covariate(s) of interest, that is, from a risk-stratified sample. This stratification prior to imputation addresses the requirement of time-to-event analysis that censored observations are representative of all other observations in the risk group with similar exposure variables. We compared our risk-stratified imputation to case deletion and bootstrap imputation in a simulated dataset in which the covariate of interest (study withdrawal) was related to treatment. A motivating example from a recent clinical trial is also presented to demonstrate the utility of our method. In our simulations, risk-stratified imputation gives estimates of treatment effect comparable to bootstrap and auxiliary variable imputation while avoiding inaccuracies of the latter two in estimating the associated variance. Similar results were obtained in analysis of clinical trial data. Risk-stratified imputation has little advantage over other imputation methods when covariates of interest are not related to treatment. Risk-stratified imputation is intended for categorical covariates and may be sensitive to the width of the matching window if continuous covariates are used. The use of the risk

  14. Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

    PubMed Central

    Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

    2009-01-01

    This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

  15. Confronting deep uncertainties in risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-10-01

    How can risk analysts help to improve policy and decision making when the correct probabilistic relation between alternative acts and their probable consequences is unknown? This practical challenge of risk management with model uncertainty arises in problems from preparing for climate change to managing emerging diseases to operating complex and hazardous facilities safely. We review constructive methods for robust and adaptive risk analysis under deep uncertainty. These methods are not yet as familiar to many risk analysts as older statistical and model-based methods, such as the paradigm of identifying a single "best-fitting" model and performing sensitivity analyses for its conclusions. They provide genuine breakthroughs for improving predictions and decisions when the correct model is highly uncertain. We demonstrate their potential by summarizing a variety of practical risk management applications.

  16. Common Methods for Security Risk Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    Workshops was particularly influential among Canadian tool-designers in the late 1980’s. These models generally favour a software tool solution simply...tools that have too small a market to justify extensive software development. Also, most of the risk management standards that came out at this...companies developing specialized risk analysis tools, such as the Vulcanizer project of DOMUS Software Inc. The latter incorporated fuzzy logic to

  17. Risk-Based Explosive Safety Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-11-30

    safety siting of energetic liquids and propellants can be greatly aided by the use of risk- based methodologies. The low probability of exposed...of energetic liquids and propellants can be greatly aided by the use of risk- based methodologies. The low probability of exposed personnel and the... based analysis of scenario 2 would likely determine that the hazard of death or injury to any single person is low due to the separation distance

  18. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  19. A risk analysis model for radioactive wastes.

    PubMed

    Külahcı, Fatih

    2011-07-15

    Hazardous wastes affect natural environmental systems to a significant extend, and therefore, it is necessary to control their harm through risk analysis. Herein, an effective risk methodology is proposed by considering their uncertain behaviors on stochastic, statistical and probabilistic bases. The basic element is attachment of a convenient probability distribution function (pdf) to a given waste quality measurement sequence. In this paper, (40)K contaminant measurements are adapted for risk assessment application after derivation of necessary fundamental formulations. The spatial contaminant distribution of (40)K is presented in the forms of maps and three-dimensional surfaces.

  20. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata looks at the spars installed on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing via the spars - a series of floating joints - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-05

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata looks at the spars installed on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing via the spars - a series of floating joints - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  1. HST/WFC3 IR Detector Updates: Photometry, Grisms, and a New SPARS Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosmeyer, Catherine M.; Baggett, Sylvia; Bajaj, Varun; Bourque, Matthew; Brammer, Gabriel; Durbin, Meredith; MacKenty, John W.; McCullough, Peter R.; Pirzkal, Nor; Ryan, Russell E.

    2015-08-01

    We discuss new developments to the characterization and monitoring of the IR channel on the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3). Installed on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) in May 2009, WFC3 is a fourth-generation imaging instrument, comprising a UVIS channel and an IR channel. The IR detector is composed of a low-noise, high-QE 1024×1024 pixel HgCdTe chip and remains stable after 5 years on-orbit. We present new measurements of the detector's photometric stability and the high precision photometry that can be achieved through spatial scanning. We give an update on the status and calibrations of the IR grisms. We also report on the IR “blobs” and their effect on photometry, and the evolution and properties of IR "snowballs." Finally, we introduce a new SPARS sequence that is planned for release this fall.

  2. Mixed siliciclastic and carbonate sedimentation within Spar Mountain Member of Ste. Genevieve Limestone, Hamilton County, Illinois

    SciTech Connect

    Roberts, M.J.; Pryor, W.A.

    1985-02-01

    The Spar Mountain Member of the Ste. Genevieve Limestone (middle Mississippian) in Hamilton County, Illinois, consists of 40-60 ft (12-18 m) of interbedded limestones, shales, and sandstones. Five cores and 1400 electric logs were used to delineate two shallowing-upward carbonate cycles and 2 major clastic pulses within the Spar Mountain. Eight lithofacies representing 6 depositional environments were identified. They are: (A) echinoderm-brachiopod dolostone to packstone (outer ramp), (B) ooid-peloidal grainstone (intermediate ramp), (C) skeletal grainstone (intermediate ramp), (D) ooid-molluscan-intraclastic wackestone to grainstone (inner ramp), (E) pelletal-skeletal wackestone (inner ramp), (F) quartzarenite (channelized nearshore), (G) quartz-sublithic arenite to wacke (delta platform), and (H) quartz mudstone (prodelta, delta platform). Deposition occurred on a southwest-dipping carbonate ramp, with siliciclastic sediments originating from the northeast. The sequence of facies and their inferred depositional environments record 2 major progradational episodes. Oolitic facies are interpreted to be of tidal-bar belt origin and quartzarenite facies are interpreted to be of delta-distributary channel origin. Their distribution is partially controlled by antecedent and syndepositional topography. Many of these paleotopographic highes are positive features today and yield pinch-out stratigraphic relationships. Paleogeographic reconstructions demonstrate that the primary control on facies distribution was the position of the delta proper along strike. However, depositional topography also influenced sedimentation, particularly in the sand-sized fraction. Using this concept, better prediction of underlying porous buildups (ooid shoals) is possible if thickness of the overlying siliciclastic is known. Within buildups, a complex diagenetic history complicates the distribution of porosity.

  3. The dissection of risk: a conceptual analysis.

    PubMed

    O'Byrne, Patrick

    2008-03-01

    Recently, patient safety has gained popularity in the nursing literature. While this topic is used extensively and has been analyzed thoroughly, some of the concepts upon which it relies, such as risk, have remained undertheorized. In fact, despite its considerable use, the term 'risk' has been largely assumed to be inherently neutral - meaning that its definition and discovery is seen as objective and impartial, and that risk avoidance is natural and logical. Such an oversight in evaluation requires that the concept of risk be thoroughly analyzed as it relates to nursing practices, particularly in relation to those practices surrounding bio-political nursing care, such as public health, as well as other more trendy nursing topics, such as patient safety. Thus, this paper applies the Evolutionary Model of concept analysis to explore 'risk', and expose it as one mechanism of maintaining prescribed/ proscribed social practices. Thereby, an analysis of risk results in the definitions and roles of the discipline and profession of nursing expanding from solely being dedicated to patient care, to include, in addition, its functions as a governmental body that unwittingly maintains hegemonic infrastructures.

  4. Risk factors analysis of consecutive exotropia

    PubMed Central

    Gong, Qianwen; Wei, Hong; Zhou, Xu; Li, Ziyuan; Liu, Longqian

    2016-01-01

    Abstract To evaluate clinical factors associated with the onset of consecutive exotropia (XT) following esotropia surgery. By a retrospective nested case-control design, we reviewed the medical records of 193 patients who had undergone initial esotropia surgery between 2008 and 2015, and had follow-up longer than 6 months. The probable risk factors were evaluated between groups 1 (consecutive XT) and 2 (non-consecutive exotropia). Pearson chi-square test and Mann–Whitney U test were used for univariate analysis, and conditional logistic regression model was applied for exploring the potential risk factors of consecutive XT. Consecutive exotropia occurred in 23 (11.9%) of 193 patients. Patients who had undergone large bilateral medial rectus recession (BMR) (P = 0.017) had a high risk of developing consecutive XT. Oblique dysfunction (P = 0.001), adduction limitation (P = 0.000) were associated with a high risk of consecutive XT, which was confirmed in the conditional logistic regression analysis. In addition, large amount of BMR (6 mm or more) was associated with higher incidence of adduction limitation (P = 0.045). The surgical methods and preoperative factors did not appear to influence the risk of developing consecutive XT (P > 0.05). The amount of surgery could be optimized to reduce the risk of consecutive XT. The presence of oblique overaction and postoperative adduction limitation may be associated with a high risk of consecutive XT, which may require close supervision, and/or even earlier operation intervention. PMID:27977611

  5. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  6. Tsunamis: Global Exposure and Local Risk Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Glimsdal, S.; Horspool, N.; Griffin, J.; Davies, G.; Frauenfelder, R.

    2014-12-01

    The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a better understanding of the likelihood of tsunami occurrence and potential tsunami inundation, and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was one direct result of this event. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN-ISDR) adopted HFA in January 2005 in order to reduce disaster risk. As an instrument to compare the risk due to different natural hazards, an integrated worldwide study was implemented and published in several Global Assessment Reports (GAR) by UN-ISDR. The results of the global earthquake induced tsunami hazard and exposure analysis for a return period of 500 years are presented. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods (PTHA) are used. The resulting hazard levels for both methods are compared quantitatively for selected areas. The comparison demonstrates that the analysis is rather rough, which is expected for a study aiming at average trends on a country level across the globe. It is shown that populous Asian countries account for the largest absolute number of people living in tsunami prone areas, more than 50% of the total exposed people live in Japan. Smaller nations like Macao and the Maldives are among the most exposed by population count. Exposed nuclear power plants are limited to Japan, China, India, Taiwan, and USA. On the contrary, a local tsunami vulnerability and risk analysis applies information on population, building types, infrastructure, inundation, flow depth for a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period combined with empirical data on tsunami damages and mortality. Results and validation of a GIS tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment model are presented. The GIS model is adapted for optimal use of data available for each study. Finally, the importance of including landslide sources in the tsunami analysis is also discussed.

  7. Advanced Risk Analysis for High-Performing Organizations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    using traditional risk analysis techniques. Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP) is one technique that high performers can use to identify and mitigate the risks arising from operational complexity....The operational environment for many types of organizations is changing. Changes in operational environments are driving the need for advanced risk ... analysis techniques. Many types of risk prevalent in today’s operational environments (e.g., event risks, inherited risk) are not readily identified

  8. Risk analysis for confined space entries: Critical analysis of four tools applied to three risk scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burlet-Vienney, Damien; Chinniah, Yuvin; Bahloul, Ali; Roberge, Brigitte

    2016-01-01

    Investigation reports of fatal confined space accidents nearly always point to a problem of identifying or underestimating risks. This paper compares 4 different risk analysis tools developed for confined spaces by applying them to 3 hazardous scenarios. The tools were namely 1. a checklist without risk estimation (Tool A), 2. a checklist with a risk scale (Tool B), 3. a risk calculation without a formal hazard identification stage (Tool C), and 4. a questionnaire followed by a risk matrix (Tool D). Each tool's structure and practical application were studied. Tools A and B gave crude results comparable to those of more analytic tools in less time. Their main limitations were lack of contextual information for the identified hazards and greater dependency on the user's expertise and ability to tackle hazards of different nature. Tools C and D utilized more systematic approaches than tools A and B by supporting risk reduction based on the description of the risk factors. Tool D is distinctive because of 1. its comprehensive structure with respect to the steps suggested in risk management, 2. its dynamic approach to hazard identification, and 3. its use of data resulting from the risk analysis.

  9. Risk Analysis of the Supply-Handling Conveyor System.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    The report documents the risk analysis that was performed on a supply-handling conveyor system. The risk analysis was done to quantify the risks...involved for project development in addition to compliance with the draft AMC regulation on risk analysis . The conveyor system is in the final phase of

  10. Low-thrust mission risk analysis.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yen, C. L.; Smith, D. B.

    1973-01-01

    A computerized multi-stage failure process simulation procedure is used to evaluate the risk in a solar electric space mission. The procedure uses currently available thrust-subsystem reliability data and performs approximate simulations of the thrust subsystem burn operation, the system failure processes, and the retargetting operations. The application of the method is used to assess the risks in carrying out a 1980 rendezvous mission to Comet Encke. Analysis of the results and evaluation of the effects of various risk factors on the mission show that system component failure rates is the limiting factor in attaining a high mission reliability. But it is also shown that a well-designed trajectory and system operation mode can be used effectively to partially compensate for unreliable thruster performance.

  11. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T; Rasmuson, D M

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  12. Effects of sparring load on reaction speed and punch force during the pre-competition and competition periods in boxing.

    PubMed

    Hukkanen, Esa; Häkkinen, Keijo

    2017-03-08

    Seven male national team level boxers (age 20.3±2.7 years, height 1.80±0.06 m, mass 73.8±11.1 kg) participated in this study to investigate effects of sparring on reaction time and punch force of straight punches measured during the pre-competition and competition periods. Heart rate and blood lactate concentrations were also monitored. Sparring load was chosen in accordance with the current rules (AIBA) 3x3 minute bouts with one minute break in between. Reaction time of rear straight lengthened (p<0.01) during the sparring load of the pre-competition period after the third round (to 390 ms) in comparison to the competition period (to 310 ms). Reaction time of lead straight lengthened (p<0.05) between the 1st and 3rd round during the pre-competition with no differences during the competition period. Both rear and lead straight punch forces were greater at all measurement points during the pre-competition compared to the competition period. Punch forces increased for both rear and lead straight between the 1st and 3rd round with the highest forces after 3rd round during the pre- (rear straight 209 kg) and competition period (rear straight 176 kg). Blood lactate levels increased after every round during both periods being at its greatest after the 3rd round (17 mmol·L during the pre-competition and 13 mmol·L during the competition period). The present sparring-induced differences in reaction time and punch forces of straight punches during the pre-competition compared to the competition period may be due to different volume and intensity of training with different goals in boxing-specific and explosive strength training.

  13. Effects of Sparring Load on Reaction Speed and Punch Force During the Precompetition and Competition Periods in Boxing.

    PubMed

    Hukkanen, Esa; Häkkinen, Keijo

    2017-06-01

    Seven, male, national-level boxers (age, 20.3 ± 2.7 years; height, 1.80 ± 0.06 m; mass, 73.8 ± 11.1 kg) participated in this study to investigate the effects of sparring on reaction time and punch force of straight punches measured during the precompetition and competition periods. Heart rate and blood lactate concentrations were also monitored. Sparring load was chosen in accordance with the current rules: 3 × 3-minute bouts with 1-minute break in between. Reaction time of rear straight lengthened (p < 0.01) during the sparring load of the precompetition period after the third round (to 390 milliseconds) in comparison to the competition period (to 310 milliseconds). Reaction time of lead straight lengthened (p ≤ 0.05) between the first and third round during the precompetition with no differences during the competition period. Both rear and lead straight punch forces were greater at all measurement points during the precompetition compared with the competition period. Punch forces increased for both rear and lead straight between the first and third rounds with the highest forces after third round during the precompetition (rear straight, 209 kg) and competition (rear straight, 176 kg) periods. Blood lactate levels increased after every round during both periods being at its greatest after the third round (17 mmol·L during the precompetition and 13 mmol·L during the competition period). The present sparring-induced differences in reaction time and punch forces of straight punches during the precompetition compared with the competition period may be the result of different volume and intensity of training with different goals in boxing-specific and explosive strength training.

  14. Harding Iceland spar: a new delta 18O-delta 13C carbonate standard for hydrothermal minerals.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Landis, G.P.

    1983-01-01

    An isotopically homogenous calcite, Iceland spar from the Iceberg claim, near the Harding pegmatite of N New Mexico, has delta 18O +11.78 + or - 0.07per mille (=+22.15per mille for CO2) and delta 13C -4.80 + or - 0.02per mille and has been prepared in quantities suitable for use as a working standard in MS.-R.A.H.

  15. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    DOE PAGES

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; ...

    2014-12-16

    In this study, high-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale inmore » a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.« less

  16. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    High-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.

  17. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    SciTech Connect

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2014-12-16

    In this study, high-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.

  18. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  19. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  20. Risk and value analysis of SETI.

    PubMed

    Billingham, J

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  1. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  2. Fire Risk Analysis for Armenian NPP Confinement

    SciTech Connect

    Poghosyan, Shahen; Malkhasyan, Albert; Bznuni, Surik; Amirjanyan, Armen

    2006-07-01

    Major fire occurred at Armenian NPP (ANPP) in October 1982 showed that fire-induced initiating events (IE) can have dominant contribution in overall risk of core damage. Probabilistic Safety Assessment study for fire-induced initiating events for ANPP was initiated in 2002. Analysis was performed for compartments fires in which could result in failure of components which are necessary for reactor cold shutdown. Analysis shows that main risk from fire at ANPP is conditioned by fire in cable tunnels 61-64. Meanwhile fire in confinement compartments don't have significant contribution to overall risk of core damage. The exception is so called 'confinement valves compartment' (room no.A-013/2) fire (more than 7.5% of CDF) in which fire could result in the loss of coolant accident with unavailability of primary makeup system, which directly leads to core damage. Detailed analysis of this problem that is common for typical WWER-440/230 reactors with no hermetic MCPs and recommendations for solution are presented in this paper. (authors)

  3. Risk-driven security testing using risk analysis with threat modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Palanivel, Maragathavalli; Selvadurai, Kanmani

    2014-01-01

    Security testing is a process of determining risks present in the system states and protects them from vulnerabilities. But security testing does not provide due importance to threat modeling and risk analysis simultaneously that affects confidentiality and integrity of the system. Risk analysis includes identification, evaluation and assessment of risks. Threat modeling approach is identifying threats associated with the system. Risk-driven security testing uses risk analysis results in test case identification, selection and assessment to prioritize and optimize the testing process. Threat modeling approach, STRIDE is generally used to identify both technical and non-technical threats present in the system. Thus, a security testing mechanism based on risk analysis results using STRIDE approach has been proposed for identifying highly risk states. Risk metrics considered for testing includes risk impact, risk possibility and risk threshold. Risk threshold value is directly proportional to risk impact and risk possibility. Risk-driven security testing results in reduced test suite which in turn reduces test case selection time. Risk analysis optimizes the test case selection and execution process. For experimentation, the system models namely LMS, ATM, OBS, OSS and MTRS are considered. The performance of proposed system is analyzed using Test Suite Reduction Rate (TSRR) and FSM coverage. TSRR varies from 13.16 to 21.43% whereas FSM coverage is achieved up to 91.49%. The results show that the proposed method combining risk analysis with threat modeling identifies states with high risks to improve the testing efficiency.

  4. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert and...

  5. Improving causal inferences in risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2013-10-01

    Recent headlines and scientific articles projecting significant human health benefits from changes in exposures too often depend on unvalidated subjective expert judgments and modeling assumptions, especially about the causal interpretation of statistical associations. Some of these assessments are demonstrably biased toward false positives and inflated effects estimates. More objective, data-driven methods of causal analysis are available to risk analysts. These can help to reduce bias and increase the credibility and realism of health effects risk assessments and causal claims. For example, quasi-experimental designs and analysis allow alternative (noncausal) explanations for associations to be tested, and refuted if appropriate. Panel data studies examine empirical relations between changes in hypothesized causes and effects. Intervention and change-point analyses identify effects (e.g., significant changes in health effects time series) and estimate their sizes. Granger causality tests, conditional independence tests, and counterfactual causality models test whether a hypothesized cause helps to predict its presumed effects, and quantify exposure-specific contributions to response rates in differently exposed groups, even in the presence of confounders. Causal graph models let causal mechanistic hypotheses be tested and refined using biomarker data. These methods can potentially revolutionize the study of exposure-induced health effects, helping to overcome pervasive false-positive biases and move the health risk assessment scientific community toward more accurate assessments of the impacts of exposures and interventions on public health.

  6. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  7. SPAR VI Technical Report for Experiment 76-22: Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pirich, R. G.; Larson, D. J., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    Samples of eutectic Bi/MnBi were directionally solidified during a low-g interval aboard the SPAR 6 flight and in a l-g environment under identical furnace velocity and thermal conditions. The Bi/MnBi eutectic is characterized by a regular rod eutectic whose morphology may be sensitive to thermo-solutal convection and by its components, MnBi, which is ferromagnetic. Morphological analyses on samples show statistically smaller interrod spacings and rod diameters with respect to samples grown under identical solidification furnace conditions in l-g. An adjustment between the interrod spacing, growth velocity, and total undercooling at the solidification interface is proposed. Morphological analyses on samples grown in l-g indicate little difference between results for different growth orientations with respect to the gravity vector. The magnetic properties are significantly affected, however, by the presence of a nonequilibrium magnetic phase and the nonequilibrium phase transforms to the equilibrium ferromagnetic phase during isothermal heat treatment.

  8. Offshore based WARP{trademark} Power Spar buoys for multi-megawatt wind power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Weisbrich, A.L.; Rhodes, A.F.

    1998-12-31

    Since the earliest use of wind as a stationary power source, major consideration and effort has gone into the selection of a location with relatively high wind speed as well as proximity to the place of energy demand. As wind speed increases, collectible energy from the wind increases by the third power. That is, in a location with 20% higher wind speed, it is possible to generate 73% more power. If 50% higher wind velocity is available, 300% more power and energy can be generated. In the ideal, an offshore wind power plant should be easily and relatively inexpensively constructed, and economically sited in any depth water. In addition to these characteristics, if the typically excellent offshore winds could be amplified by as much as 50% to 80% and captured by low cost, highly reliable aircraft propeller sized wind turbines, substantial cost effectiveness and practicality would result. ENECO`s Wind amplified Rotor Platform (WARP{trademark}) Power Spar buoy system design appears to have the features needed to achieve these objectives and is proposed for test and commercialization.

  9. Modeling Opponents in Adversarial Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Rios Insua, David; Banks, David; Rios, Jesus

    2016-04-01

    Adversarial risk analysis has been introduced as a framework to deal with risks derived from intentional actions of adversaries. The analysis supports one of the decisionmakers, who must forecast the actions of the other agents. Typically, this forecast must take account of random consequences resulting from the set of selected actions. The solution requires one to model the behavior of the opponents, which entails strategic thinking. The supported agent may face different kinds of opponents, who may use different rationality paradigms, for example, the opponent may behave randomly, or seek a Nash equilibrium, or perform level-k thinking, or use mirroring, or employ prospect theory, among many other possibilities. We describe the appropriate analysis for these situations, and also show how to model the uncertainty about the rationality paradigm used by the opponent through a Bayesian model averaging approach, enabling a fully decision-theoretic solution. We also show how as we observe an opponent's decision behavior, this approach allows learning about the validity of each of the rationality models used to predict his decision by computing the models' (posterior) probabilities, which can be understood as a measure of their validity. We focus on simultaneous decision making by two agents.

  10. FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, Robin K.

    1976-01-01

    A program for seismic risk analysis is described which combines generality of application, efficiency and accuracy of operation, and the advantage of small storage requirements. The theoretical basis for the program is first reviewed, and the computational algorithms used to apply this theory are described. The information required for running the program is listed. Published attenuation functions describing the variation with earthquake magnitude and distance of expected values for various ground motion parameters are summarized for reference by the program user. Finally, suggestions for use of the program are made, an example problem is described (along with example problem input and output) and the program is listed.

  11. Risk Analysis Related to Quality Management Principles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vykydal, David; Halfarová, Petra; Nenadál, Jaroslav; Plura, Jiří; Hekelová, Edita

    2012-12-01

    Efficient and effective implementation of quality management principles asks for a responsible approach from top managers' perspectives. A study of the current state of affairs in Czech organizations discovers a lot of shortcomings in this field that can be changed to vary managerial risks. The article identifies and analyses some of them and gives short guidance for appropriate treatment. Text of the article reflects the authors' experience as well as knowledge obtained from the systematic analysis of industrial companies' environments.

  12. Application of Risk Analysis: Response from a Systems Division,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    A review of theoretical literature reveals that most technical aspects of risk analysis have become a reasonably well-defined process with many... risk analysis in order to enhance its application. Also needed are better tools to enhance use of both subjective judgment and group decision processes...hope that it would lead to increased application of risk analysis in the acquisition process.

  13. Topographic Avalanche Risk: DEM Sensitivity Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazarkulova, Ainura; Strobl, Josef

    2015-04-01

    GIS-based models are frequently used to assess the risk and trigger probabilities of (snow) avalanche releases, based on parameters and geomorphometric derivatives like elevation, exposure, slope, proximity to ridges and local relief energy. Numerous models, and model-based specific applications and project results have been published based on a variety of approaches and parametrizations as well as calibrations. Digital Elevation Models (DEM) come with many different resolution (scale) and quality (accuracy) properties, some of these resulting from sensor characteristics and DEM generation algorithms, others from different DEM processing workflows and analysis strategies. This paper explores the impact of using different types and characteristics of DEMs for avalanche risk modeling approaches, and aims at establishing a framework for assessing the uncertainty of results. The research question is derived from simply demonstrating the differences in release risk areas and intensities by applying identical models to DEMs with different properties, and then extending this into a broader sensitivity analysis. For the quantification and calibration of uncertainty parameters different metrics are established, based on simple value ranges, probabilities, as well as fuzzy expressions and fractal metrics. As a specific approach the work on DEM resolution-dependent 'slope spectra' is being considered and linked with the specific application of geomorphometry-base risk assessment. For the purpose of this study focusing on DEM characteristics, factors like land cover, meteorological recordings and snowpack structure and transformation are kept constant, i.e. not considered explicitly. Key aims of the research presented here are the development of a multi-resolution and multi-scale framework supporting the consistent combination of large area basic risk assessment with local mitigation-oriented studies, and the transferability of the latter into areas without availability of

  14. An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications.

    PubMed

    Aven, Terje

    2017-09-07

    To solve real-life problems-such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change-and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Efficient Ultra-High Speed Communication with Simultaneous Phase and Amplitude Regenerative Sampling (SPARS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlowitz, Christian; Girg, Thomas; Ghaleb, Hatem; Du, Xuan-Quang

    2017-08-01

    For ultra-high speed communication systems at high center frequencies above 100 GHz, we propose a disruptive change in system architecture to address major issues regarding amplifier chains with a large number of amplifier stages. They cause a high noise figure and high power consumption when operating close to the frequency limits of the underlying semiconductor technologies. Instead of scaling a classic homodyne transceiver system, we employ repeated amplification in single-stage amplifiers through positive feedback as well as synthesizer-free self-mixing demodulation at the receiver to simplify the system architecture notably. Since the amplitude and phase information for the emerging oscillation is defined by the input signal and the oscillator is only turned on for a very short time, it can be left unstabilized and thus come without a PLL. As soon as gain is no longer the most prominent issue, relaxed requirements for all the other major components allow reconsidering their implementation concepts to achieve further improvements compared to classic systems. This paper provides the first comprehensive overview of all major design aspects that need to be addressed upon realizing a SPARS-based transceiver. At system level, we show how to achieve high data rates and a noise performance comparable to classic systems, backed by scaled demonstrator experiments. Regarding the transmitter, design considerations for efficient quadrature modulation are discussed. For the frontend components that replace PA and LNA amplifier chains, implementation techniques for regenerative sampling circuits based on super-regenerative oscillators are presented. Finally, an analog-to-digital converter with outstanding performance and complete interfaces both to the analog baseband as well as to the digital side completes the set of building blocks for efficient ultra-high speed communication.

  16. Heave-roll-pitch coupled nonlinear internal resonance response of a spar platform considering wave and vortex exciting loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wei; Tang, Yougang; Liu, Liqin; Liu, Shuxiao; Cai, Runbo

    2017-04-01

    Many studies have been done on the heave-pitch unstable coupling response for a spar platform by a 2-DOF model. In fact, in addition to the heave and pitch which are in one plane, the nonlinear unstable motion will also occur in roll. From the results of the experiments, the unstable roll motion plays a dominant role in the motion of a spar platform which is much stronger than that of pitch. The objective of this paper is to study 3-DOF coupling response performance of spar platform under wave and vortex-induced force. The nonlinear coupled equations in heave, roll and pitch are established by considering time-varying wet surface and coupling. The first order steady-state response is solved by multi-scales method when the incident wave frequency approaches the heave natural frequency. Numerical integration of the motion equations has been performed to verify the first-order perturbation solution. The results are confirmed by model test. There is a saturation phenomenon associated with heave mode in 3-DOF systems and all extra energy is transferred to roll and pitch. It is observed that sub-harmonic response occurs in roll and pitch when the wave force exceeds a certain value. The energy distribution in roll and pitch is determined by the initial value and damping characteristics of roll and pitch. The energy transfers from heave to pitch and then transfers from pitch to roll. Due to the influence of the low-frequency vortex-excited force, the response of roll is more complicated than that of pitch.

  17. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not...; (D) Capital expenditures; and (E) Operating efficiency. (ii) Financial risk, based on Applicant?s... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260...

  18. Concentration of Risk Model (CORM) Verification and Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-15

    Mental Health and using data from a repository at the University of Michigan, had attempted to identify soldiers at higher-than-average risk of suicide ...TRAC-M-TR-14-023 15 June 2014 Concentration of Risk Model (CORM) Verification and Analysis TRADOC Analysis Center - Monterey 700 Dyer Road Monterey...TRAC-M-TR-14-023 15 June 2014 Concentration of Risk Model (CORM) Verification and Analysis Edward M. Masotti Sam Buttrey TRADOC Analysis Center

  19. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome.

  20. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    SciTech Connect

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  1. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  2. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, U.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1986-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives.

  3. Environmental risk analysis for indirect coal liquefaction

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Suter, G.W. II; Baes, C.F. III; Bartell, S.M.; Cavendish, M.G.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.; Rosen, A.E.

    1985-01-01

    This report presents an analysis of the risks to fish, water quality (due to noxious algal blooms), crops, forests, and wildlife of two technologies for the indirect liquefaction of coal: Lurgi and Koppers-Totzek gasification of coal for Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. A variety of analytical techniques were used to make maximum use of the available data to consider effects of effluents on different levels of ecological organization. The most significant toxicants to fish were found to be ammonia, cadmium, and acid gases. An analysis of whole-effluent toxicity indicated that the Lurgi effluent is more acutely toxic than the Koppers-Totzek effluent. Six effluent components appear to pose a potential threat of blue-green algal blooms, primarily because of their effects on higher trophic levels. The most important atmospheric emissions with respect to crops, forests, and wildlife were found to be the conventional combustion products SO/sub 2/ and NO/sub 2/. Of the materials deposited on the soil, arsenic, cadmium, and nickel appear of greatest concern for phytotoxicity. 147 references, 5 figures, 41 tables.

  4. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  5. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

  6. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

  7. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

  8. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

  9. The Use and Abuse of Risk Analysis in Policy Debate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herbeck, Dale A.; Katsulas, John P.

    The best check on the preposterous claims of crisis rhetoric is an appreciation of the nature of risk analysis and how it functions in argumentation. The use of risk analysis is common in policy debate. While the stock issues paradigm focused the debate exclusively on the affirmative case, the advent of policy systems analysis has transformed…

  10. Risk Analysis from a Top-Down Perspective

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-07-15

    and focused studies in critical areas. A variety of analyses, such as a localized version of the bottom up risk analysis approach and sensitivity...analysis, focus on these open ended cases to resolve them. Unresolvable decision conflicts include value judgments which risk analysis cannot solve

  11. Multiobjective Risk Partitioning: An Application to Dam Safety Risk Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-04-01

    expectation distorts, and a’most eliminates, the distinctive features of many viable alternative policy options that could lead to the reduction of the risk...height of the dam) from 20 to 30 million dollirs would contribute to a negligible reduction of 0.1 units of conventional (unconditional) expected social...results could be easily influenced by either a change in the return period of the PMH or by the choice of the distribution. Therefore, it is

  12. Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about

  13. Technical Risk Analysis - Exploiting the Power of MBSE

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-11-01

    UNCLASSIFIED DSTO-GD-0734 18. Technical Risk Analysis – Exploiting the Power of MBSE – Despina Tramoundanis1, Wayne Power1 and Daniel Spencer2...Functional Risk Analysis (FRA) conducted within a Model Based Systems Engineering ( MBSE ) environment. FRA is a rigorous technique used to explore potential...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Technical Risk Analysis â Exploiting the Power of MBSE â 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6

  14. Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-01-01

    COVERED 00-00-2007 to 00-00-2007 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection 5a...meet high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection Henry H...across differ- ent urban areas, to assess terrorism risks within a metropolitan area, and to target intelligence analysis and collection efforts. The

  15. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  16. Risk analysis of colorectal cancer incidence by gene expression analysis

    PubMed Central

    Shangkuan, Wei-Chuan; Lin, Hung-Che; Chang, Yu-Tien; Jian, Chen-En; Fan, Hueng-Chuen; Chen, Kang-Hua; Liu, Ya-Fang; Hsu, Huan-Ming; Chou, Hsiu-Ling; Yao, Chung-Tay

    2017-01-01

    Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the leading cancers worldwide. Several studies have performed microarray data analyses for cancer classification and prognostic analyses. Microarray assays also enable the identification of gene signatures for molecular characterization and treatment prediction. Objective Microarray gene expression data from the online Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database were used to to distinguish colorectal cancer from normal colon tissue samples. Methods We collected microarray data from the GEO database to establish colorectal cancer microarray gene expression datasets for a combined analysis. Using the Prediction Analysis for Microarrays (PAM) method and the GSEA MSigDB resource, we analyzed the 14,698 genes that were identified through an examination of their expression values between normal and tumor tissues. Results Ten genes (ABCG2, AQP8, SPIB, CA7, CLDN8, SCNN1B, SLC30A10, CD177, PADI2, and TGFBI) were found to be good indicators of the candidate genes that correlate with CRC. From these selected genes, an average of six significant genes were obtained using the PAM method, with an accuracy rate of 95%. The results demonstrate the potential of utilizing a model with the PAM method for data mining. After a detailed review of the published reports, the results confirmed that the screened candidate genes are good indicators for cancer risk analysis using the PAM method. Conclusions Six genes were selected with 95% accuracy to effectively classify normal and colorectal cancer tissues. We hope that these results will provide the basis for new research projects in clinical practice that aim to rapidly assess colorectal cancer risk using microarray gene expression analysis. PMID:28229027

  17. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    SciTech Connect

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  18. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  19. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P.

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  20. Risk analysis for Arctic offshore operations

    SciTech Connect

    Slomski, S.; Vivatrat, V.

    1986-04-01

    Offshore exploration for hydrocarbons is being conducted in the near-shore regions of the Beaufort Sea. This activity is expected to be intensified and expanded into the deeper portions of the Beaufort, as well as into the Chukchi Sea. The ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea are very variable, particularly in the deeper water regions. This variability greatly influences the probability of success or failure of an offshore operation. For example, a summer exploratory program conducted from a floating drilling unit may require a period of 60 to 100 days on station. The success of such a program depends on: (a) the time when the winter ice conditions deteriorate sufficiently for the drilling unit to move on station; (b) the number of summer invasions by the arctic ice pack, forcing the drilling unit to abandon station; (c) the rate at which first-year ice grows to the ice thickness limit of the supporting icebreakers; and (d) the extent of arctic pack expansion during the fall and early winter. In general, the ice conditions are so variable that, even with good planning, the change of failure of an offshore operation will not be negligible. Contingency planning for such events is therefore necessary. This paper presents a risk analysis procedure which can greatly benefit the planning of an offshore operation. A floating drilling program and a towing and installation operation for a fixed structure are considered to illustrate the procedure.

  1. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    PubMed

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  2. Probabilistic risk analysis of groundwater remediation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolster, D.; Barahona, M.; Dentz, M.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Trinchero, P.; Valhondo, C.; Tartakovsky, D. M.

    2009-06-01

    Heterogeneity of subsurface environments and insufficient site characterization are some of the reasons why decisions about groundwater exploitation and remediation have to be made under uncertainty. A typical decision maker chooses between several alternative remediation strategies by balancing their respective costs with the probability of their success or failure. We conduct a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to determine the likelihood of the success of a permeable reactive barrier, one of the leading approaches to groundwater remediation. While PRA is used extensively in many engineering fields, its applications in hydrogeology are scarce. This is because rigorous PRA requires one to quantify structural and parametric uncertainties inherent in predictions of subsurface flow and transport. We demonstrate how PRA can facilitate a comprehensive uncertainty quantification for complex subsurface phenomena by identifying key transport processes contributing to a barrier's failure, each of which is amenable to uncertainty analysis. Probability of failure of a remediation strategy is computed by combining independent and conditional probabilities of failure of each process. Individual probabilities can be evaluated either analytically or numerically or, barring both, can be inferred from expert opinion.

  3. Radar Hardware Second Buy Decision Risk Analysis,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    Operations research, *Radar equipment, *Army procurement, *Decision making , *Risk, Symposia, Army research, Contracts, Cost estimates, Scheduling, Time, Requirements, Logistics planning, Army planning

  4. The effectiveness of risk management: an analysis of project risk planning across industries and countries.

    PubMed

    Zwikael, Ofer; Ahn, Mark

    2011-01-01

    This article examines the effectiveness of current risk management practices to reduce project risk using a multinational, multi-industry study across different scenarios and cultures. A survey was administered to 701 project managers, and their supervisors, in seven industries and three diverse countries (New Zealand, Israel, and Japan), in multiple languages during the 2002-2007 period. Results of this study show that project context--industry and country where a project is executed--significantly impacts perceived levels of project risk, and the intensity of risk management processes. Our findings also suggest that risk management moderates the relationship between risk level and project success. Specifically, we found that even moderate levels of risk management planning are sufficient to reduce the negative effect risk levels have on project success. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Risk analysis for plant-made vaccines.

    PubMed

    Kirk, Dwayne D; McIntosh, Kim; Walmsley, Amanda M; Peterson, Robert K D

    2005-08-01

    The production of vaccines in transgenic plants was first proposed in 1990 however no product has yet reached commercialization. There are several risks during the production and delivery stages of this technology, with potential impact on the environment and on human health. Risks to the environment include gene transfer and exposure to antigens or selectable marker proteins. Risks to human health include oral tolerance, allergenicity, inconsistent dosage, worker exposure and unintended exposure to antigens or selectable marker proteins in the food chain. These risks are controllable through appropriate regulatory measures at all stages of production and distribution of a potential plant-made vaccine. Successful use of this technology is highly dependant on stewardship and active risk management by the developers of this technology, and through quality standards for production, which will be set by regulatory agencies. Regulatory agencies can also negatively affect the future viability of this technology by requiring that all risks must be controlled, or by applying conventional regulations which are overly cumbersome for a plant production and oral delivery system. The value of new or replacement vaccines produced in plant cells and delivered orally must be considered alongside the probability and severity of potential risks in their production and use, and the cost of not deploying this technology--the risk of continuing with the status quo alternative.

  6. Virtues and Limitations of Risk Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weatherwax, Robert K.

    1975-01-01

    After summarizing the Rasmussion Report, the author reviews the probabilistic portion of the report from the perspectives of engineering utility and risk assessment uncertainty. The author shows that the report may represent a significant step forward in the assurance of reactor safety and an imperfect measure of actual reactor risk. (BT)

  7. Virtues and Limitations of Risk Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weatherwax, Robert K.

    1975-01-01

    After summarizing the Rasmussion Report, the author reviews the probabilistic portion of the report from the perspectives of engineering utility and risk assessment uncertainty. The author shows that the report may represent a significant step forward in the assurance of reactor safety and an imperfect measure of actual reactor risk. (BT)

  8. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    PubMed

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Risk analysis for worker exposure to benzene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallenbeck, William H.; Flowers, Roxanne E.

    1992-05-01

    Cancer risk factors (characterized by route, dose, dose rate per kilogram, fraction of lifetime exposed, species, and sex) were derived for workers exposed to benzene via inhalation or ingestion. Exposure at the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) permissible exposure limit (PEL) and at leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites were evaluated. At the current PEL of 1 ppm, the theoretical lifetime excess risk of cancer from benzene inhalation is ten per 1000. The theoretical lifetime excess risk for worker inhalation exposure at LUST sites ranged from 10 to 40 per 1000. These results indicate that personal protection should be required. The theoretical lifetime excess risk due to soil ingestion is five to seven orders of magnitude less than the inhalation risks.

  10. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260.17 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not...

  11. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260.17 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not...

  12. Loss Exposure and Risk Analysis Methodology (LERAM) Project Database Design.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1996-06-01

    MISREPS) to more capably support system safety engineering concepts such as hazard analysis and risk management. As part of the Loss Exposure and Risk ... Analysis Methodology (LERAM) project, the research into the methods which we employ to report, track, and analyze hazards has resulted in a series of low

  13. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Bigelow, Tim S

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  14. Meta-analysis methods for risk differences.

    PubMed

    Bonett, Douglas G; Price, Robert M

    2014-11-01

    The difference between two proportions, referred to as a risk difference, is a useful measure of effect size in studies where the response variable is dichotomous. Confidence interval methods based on a varying coefficient model are proposed for combining and comparing risk differences from multi-study between-subjects or within-subjects designs. The proposed methods are new alternatives to the popular constant coefficient and random coefficient methods. The proposed varying coefficient methods do not require the constant coefficient assumption of effect size homogeneity, nor do they require the random coefficient assumption that the risk differences from the selected studies represent a random sample from a normally distributed superpopulation of risk differences. The proposed varying coefficient methods are shown to have excellent finite-sample performance characteristics under realistic conditions. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

  15. Fire behavior and risk analysis in spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Friedman, Robert; Sacksteder, Kurt R.

    1988-01-01

    Practical risk management for present and future spacecraft, including space stations, involves the optimization of residual risks balanced by the spacecraft operational, technological, and economic limitations. Spacecraft fire safety is approached through three strategies, in order of risk: (1) control of fire-causing elements, through exclusion of flammable materials for example; (2) response to incipient fires through detection and alarm; and (3) recovery of normal conditions through extinguishment and cleanup. Present understanding of combustion in low gravity is that, compared to normal gravity behavior, fire hazards may be reduced by the absence of buoyant gas flows yet at the same time increased by ventilation flows and hot particle expulsion. This paper discusses the application of low-gravity combustion knowledge and appropriate aircraft analogies to fire detection, fire fighting, and fire-safety decisions for eventual fire-risk management and optimization in spacecraft.

  16. Common-Cause Failure Analysis in Event Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Dana L. Kelly; Dale M. Rasmuson

    2008-09-01

    This paper describes the approach taken by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to the treatment of common-cause failure in probabilistic risk assessment of operational events. The approach is based upon the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, and examples are illustrated using the alpha-factor parameterization, the approach adopted by the NRC in their Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models. The cases of a failed component (with and without shared common-cause failure potential) and a component being unavailable due to preventive maintenance or testing are addressed. The treatment of two related failure modes (e.g., failure to start and failure to run) is a new feature of this paper. These methods are being applied by the NRC in assessing the risk significance of operational events for the Significance Determination Process (SDP) and the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program.

  17. Extended risk-analysis model for activities of the project.

    PubMed

    Kušar, Janez; Rihar, Lidija; Zargi, Urban; Starbek, Marko

    2013-12-01

    Project management of product/service orders has become a mode of operation in many companies. Although these are mostly cyclically recurring projects, risk management is very important for them. An extended risk-analysis model for new product/service projects is presented in this paper. Emphasis is on a solution developed in the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The usual project activities risk analysis is based on evaluation of the probability that risk events occur and on evaluation of their consequences. A third parameter has been added in our model: an estimate of the incidence of risk events. On the basis of the calculated activity risk level, a project team prepares preventive and corrective measures that should be taken according to the status indicators. An important advantage of the proposed solution is that the project manager and his team members are timely warned of risk events and they can thus activate the envisaged preventive and corrective measures as necessary.

  18. An analysis of the new EPA risk management rule

    SciTech Connect

    Loran, B.; Nand, K.; Male, M.

    1997-08-01

    Due to increasing public concern of risks from handling highly hazardous chemicals at various facilities, a number of state and federal regulatory agencies, such as the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and recently the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have enacted regulations requiring these facilities to perform accidental risk analysis and develop process safety and risk management programs. The regulatory requirements to be fulfilled are described; the major components involved are a Process Hazard Analysis, a Consequence Analysis, and a Management Program. The performance of these analyses and the development of a management program for 21 facilities operated by the City of Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, treating drinking water supplies with chlorine, is discussed. The effectiveness of the EPA risk management rule in achieving risk reduction is critically analyzed; it is found that, while the rule increases the worker and public awareness of the inherent risks present, some of the analytical results obtained may have a limited practical application.

  19. Risk analysis of an RTG on the Space Shuttle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frank, Michael V.

    1991-01-01

    As part of the effort to review the Ulysses Final Safety Analysis Report and to understand the risk of plutonium release from the Ulysses spacecraft General Purpose Heat Source-Radioisotope Thermal Generator (GPHS-RTG), the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) and the author performed an integrated, quantitative analysis of the uncertainties of the calculated risk of plutonium release from Ulysses. Using state-of-the-art probabilistic risk assessment technology, the uncertainty analysis accounted for both variability and uncertainty of the key parameters of the risk analysis. The results show tht INSRP had high confidence that risk of fatal cancers from potential plutonium release associated with calculated launch and deployment accident scenarios is low.

  20. Performance of a steel spar wind turbine blade on the Mod-0 100 kW experimental wind turbine

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keith, T. G., Jr.; Sullivan, T. L.; Viterna, L. A.

    1980-01-01

    The performance and loading of a large wind rotor, 38.4 m in diameter and composed of two low-cost steel spar blades were examined. Two blades were fabricated at Lewis Research Center and successfully operated on the Mod-0 wind turbine at Plum Brook. The blades were operated on a tower on which the natural bending frequency were altered by placing the tower on a leaf-spring apparatus. It was found that neither blade performance nor loading were affected significantly by this tower softening technique. Rotor performance exceeded prediction while blade loads were found to be in reasonable agreement with those predicted. Seventy-five hours of operation over a five month period resulted in no deterioration in the blade.

  1. Maternal migration and autism risk: systematic analysis.

    PubMed

    Crafa, Daina; Warfa, Nasir

    2015-02-01

    Autism (AUT) is one of the most prevalent developmental disorders emerging during childhood, and can be amongst the most incapacitating mental disorders. Some individuals with AUT require a lifetime of supervised care. Autism Speaks reported estimated costs for 2012 at £34 billion in the UK; and $3.2 million-$126 billion in the US, Australia and Canada. Ethnicity and migration experiences appear to increase risks of AUT and relate to underlying biological risk factors. Sociobiological stress factors can affect the uterine environment, or relate to stress-induced epigenetic changes during pregnancy and delivery. Epigenetic risk factors associated with AUT also include poor pregnancy conditions, low birth weight, and congenital malformation. Recent studies report that children from migrant communities are at higher risk of AUT than children born to non-migrant mothers, with the exception of Hispanic children. This paper provides the first systematic review into prevalence and predictors of AUT with a particular focus on maternal migration stressors and epigenetic risk factors. AUT rates appear higher in certain migrant communities, potentially relating to epigenetic changes after stressful experiences. Although AUT remains a rare disorder, failures to recognize its public health urgency and local community needs continue to leave certain cultural groups at a disadvantage.

  2. The application of risk analysis in aquatic animal health management.

    PubMed

    Peeler, E J; Murray, A G; Thebault, A; Brun, E; Giovaninni, A; Thrush, M A

    2007-09-14

    Risk analysis has only been regularly used in the management of aquatic animal health in recent years. The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS) stimulated the application of risk analysis to investigate disease risks associated with international trade (import risk analysis-IRA). A majority (9 of 17) of the risk analyses reviewed were IRA. The other major focus has been the parasite of Atlantic salmon--Gyrodactylus salaris. Six studies investigated the spread of this parasite, between countries, rivers and from farmed to wild stocks, and clearly demonstrated that risk analysis can support aquatic animal health policy development, from international trade and biosecurity to disease interaction between wild and farmed stocks. Other applications of risk analysis included the spread of vertically transmitted pathogens and disease emergence in aquaculture. The Covello-Merkhofer, risk analysis model was most commonly used and appears to be a flexible tool not only for IRA but also the investigation of disease spread in other contexts. The limitations of the identified risk assessments were discussed. A majority were qualitative, partly due to the lack of data for quantitative analysis, and this, it can be argued, constrained their usefulness for trade purposes (i.e. setting appropriate sanitary measures); in other instances, a qualitative result was found to be adequate for decision making. A lack of information about the disease hazards of the large number of fish species traded is likely to constrain quantitative analysis for a number of years. The consequence assessment element of a risk analysis was most likely to be omitted, or limited in scope and depth, rarely extending beyond examining the evidence of susceptibility of farmed and wild species to the identified hazard. The reasons for this are discussed and recommendations made to develop guidelines for a consistent, systematic and multi-disciplinary approach to consequence

  3. Risk factors for retained surgical items: a meta-analysis and proposed risk stratification system.

    PubMed

    Moffatt-Bruce, Susan D; Cook, Charles H; Steinberg, Steven M; Stawicki, Stanislaw P

    2014-08-01

    Retained surgical items (RSI) are designated as completely preventable "never events". Despite numerous case reports, clinical series, and expert opinions few studies provide quantitative insight into RSI risk factors and their relative contributions to the overall RSI risk profile. Existing case-control studies lack the ability to reliably detect clinically important differences within the long list of proposed risks. This meta-analysis examines the best available data for RSI risk factors, seeking to provide a clinically relevant risk stratification system. Nineteen candidate studies were considered for this meta-analysis. Three retrospective, case-control studies of RSI-related risk factors contained suitable group comparisons between patients with and without RSI, thus qualifying for further analysis. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis 2.0 (BioStat, Inc, Englewood, NJ) software was used to analyze the following "common factor" variables compiled from the above studies: body-mass index, emergency procedure, estimated operative blood loss >500 mL, incorrect surgical count, lack of surgical count, >1 subprocedure, >1 surgical team, nursing staff shift change, operation "afterhours" (i.e., between 5 PM and 7 AM), operative time, trainee presence, and unexpected intraoperative factors. We further stratified resulting RSI risk factors into low, intermediate, and high risk. Despite the fact that only between three and six risk factors were associated with increased RSI risk across the three studies, our analysis of pooled data demonstrates that seven risk factors are significantly associated with increased RSI risk. Variables found to elevate the RSI risk include intraoperative blood loss >500 mL (odds ratio [OR] 1.6); duration of operation (OR 1.7); >1 subprocedure (OR 2.1); lack of surgical counts (OR 2.5); >1 surgical team (OR 3.0); unexpected intraoperative factors (OR 3.4); and incorrect surgical count (OR 6.1). Changes in nursing staff, emergency surgery, body

  4. The 5 kWe scale-down of the SPAR/SP-100 heat pipe reactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adrian, John M.; Benke, Steven M.

    The SPAR/SP-100 heat pipe reactor was designed to operate at 100 kWe. Work done on a 5 kWe scaled-down version of the SPAR/SP-100 is presented. This scale-down was done in order to compare the performance of a small heat pipe reactor to Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs). The work on this design is broken into the following categories: reactor core modeling, control drum modeling, heat rejection modeling, and shadow shield modeling. The reactor core modeling will be completed using the already available computer programs FEMP2D and ORIGEN. The REMP2D will be used to complete the neutronics survey through the core and control drums and it will also be used to ensure the core will be subcritical in case of a water abort. Another safety aspect that will be investigated using FEMP2D is ensuring that a fuel element remains subcritical in the event of reactor break-up during reentry. The ORIGEN wil be used to check the burn-up characteristics of the core design. The reactor control drums will be modeled using a FORTRAN program in order to provide atom density information for use in FEMP2D. The heat rejection system will be modeled in order to determine weight requirements of the radiator. The shadow shield model will also provide information on the weight requirements of the shield with respect to the reactor size. The data obtained from the different categories wil be used to compare the performance of a small heat pipe reactor to the RTG. Comparisons will be made in the following areas: specific power, operating characteristics, and safety.

  5. Risk analysis for environmental health triage.

    PubMed

    Bogen, Kenneth T

    2005-10-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates the development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to, and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define "consequences" by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on the scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically-related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  6. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  7. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    SciTech Connect

    Bogen, K T

    2005-11-18

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  8. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  9. Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moynihan, Gary P.; Fonseca, Daniel J.; Ray, Paul S.

    2010-01-01

    A conceptual design has been announced of an expert-system computer program, and the development of a prototype of the program, intended for use as a project-management tool. The program integrates schedule and risk data for the purpose of determining the schedule applications of safety risks and, somewhat conversely, the effects of changes in schedules on changes on safety. It is noted that the design has been delivered to a NASA client and that it is planned to disclose the design in a conference presentation.

  10. A Comparison of Disease Risk Analysis Tools for Conservation Translocations.

    PubMed

    Dalziel, Antonia Eleanor; Sainsbury, Anthony W; McInnes, Kate; Jakob-Hoff, Richard; Ewen, John G

    2017-03-01

    Conservation translocations are increasingly used to manage threatened species and restore ecosystems. Translocations increase the risk of disease outbreaks in the translocated and recipient populations. Qualitative disease risk analyses have been used as a means of assessing the magnitude of any effect of disease and the probability of the disease occurring associated with a translocation. Currently multiple alternative qualitative disease risk analysis packages are available to practitioners. Here we compare the ease of use, expertise required, transparency, and results from, three different qualitative disease risk analyses using a translocation of the endangered New Zealand passerine, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), as a model. We show that the three methods use fundamentally different approaches to define hazards. Different methods are used to produce estimations of the risk from disease, and the estimations are different for the same hazards. Transparency of the process varies between methods from no referencing, or explanations of evidence to justify decisions, through to full documentation of resources, decisions and assumptions made. Evidence to support decisions on estimation of risk from disease is important, to enable knowledge acquired in the future, for example, from translocation outcome, to be used to improve the risk estimation for future translocations. Information documenting each disease risk analysis differs along with variation in emphasis of the questions asked within each package. The expertise required to commence a disease risk analysis varies and an action flow chart tailored for the non-wildlife health specialist are included in one method but completion of the disease risk analysis requires wildlife health specialists with epidemiological and pathological knowledge in all three methods. We show that disease risk analysis package choice may play a greater role in the overall risk estimation of the effect of disease on animal populations

  11. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  12. Modelling soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) in the immediate period after a grassland fire in Lithuania.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Cerda, Artemi; Misiūnė, Ieva

    2015-04-01

    The soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) is an index that measures the amount of sodium and potassium adsorbed onto clay and organic matter surfaces, in relation to calcium and magnesium. Assess the potential of soil dispersion or flocculation, a process which has implication in soil hydraulic properties and erosion (Sarah, 2004). Depending on severity and the type of ash produced, fire can changes in the immediate period the soil nutrient status (Bodi et al. 2014). Ash releases onto soil surface a large amount of cations, due the high pH. Previous works showed that SPAR from ash slurries is higher than solutions produced from litter (Pereira et al., 2014a). Normally the spatial distribution of topsoil nutrients in the immediate period after the fire is very heterogeneous, due to the different impacts of fire. Thus it is important to identify the most accurate interpolation method in order to identify with better precision the impacts of fire on soil properties. The objective of this work is to test several interpolation methods. The study area is located in near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Four days after the fire it was designed a plot in a burned area with near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Twenty five samples were collected from the topsoil. The SPAR index was calculated according to the formula: (Na++K+)/(Ca2++Mg2+)1/2 (Sarah, 2004). Data followed the normal distribution, thus no transformation was required previous to data modelling. Several well know interpolation models were tested, as Inverse Distance to a Weight (IDW) with the power of 1, 2, 3 and 4, Radial Basis Functions (RBF), Inverse Multiquadratic (IMT), Multilog (MTG), Multiquadratic (MTQ), Natural Cubic Spline (NCS) and Thin Plate Spline (TPS) and Local Polynomial (LP) with the power of 1 and 2 and Ordinary Kriging. The best interpolator was the one which had the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (Pereira et al., 2014b). The

  13. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billingham, J.

    1986-01-01

    The risks, values, and costs of the SETI project are evaluated and compared with those of the Viking project. Examination of the scientific values, side benefits, and costs of the two projects reveal that both projects provide equal benefits at equal costs. The probability of scientific and technical success is analyzed.

  14. Alcohol Consumption and Gastric Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Ke; Baloch, Zulqarnain; He, Ting-Ting; Xia, Xueshan

    2017-01-01

    Background We sought to determine by meta-analysis the relationship between drinking alcohol and the risk of gastric cancer. Material/Methods A systematic Medline search was performed to identify all published reports of drinking alcohol and the associated risk of gastric cancer. Initially we retrieved 2,494 studies, but after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, only ten studies were found to be eligible for our meta-analysis. Results Our meta-analysis showed that alcohol consumption elevated the risk of gastric cancer with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.39 (95% CI 1.20–1.61). Additionally, subgroup analysis showed that only a nested case-control report from Sweden did not support this observation. Subgroup analysis of moderate drinking and heavy drinking also confirmed that drinking alcohol increased the risk of gastric cancer. Publication bias analysis (Begg’s and Egger’s tests) showed p values were more than 0.05, suggesting that the 10 articles included in our analysis did not have a publication bias. Conclusions The results from this meta-analysis support the hypothesis that alcohol consumption can increase the risk of gastric cancer; suggesting that effective moderation of alcohol drinking may reduce the risk of gastric cancer. PMID:28087989

  15. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    SciTech Connect

    Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.; Helms, Jovana; Imbro, Dennis Raymond; Sumner, Matthew C.

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  16. A review of risk analysis and helicopter air ambulance accidents.

    PubMed

    Nix, Sam; Buckner, Steven; Cercone, Richard

    2014-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration announced a final rule in February 2014 that includes a requirement for helicopter air ambulance operators to institute preflight risk analysis programs. This qualitative study examined risk factors that were described in 22 preliminary, factual, and probable cause helicopter air ambulance accident and incident reports that were initiated by the National Transportation Safety Board between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2013. Insights into the effectiveness of existing preflight risk analysis strategies were gained by comparing these risk factors with the preflight risk analysis guidance that is published by the Federal Aviation Administration in the Flight Standards Information Management System. When appropriate, a deeper understanding of the human factors that may have contributed to occurrences was gained through methodologies that are described in the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System. The results of this study suggest that there are some vulnerabilities in existing preflight risk analysis guidelines that may affect safety in the helicopter air ambulance industry. The likelihood that human factors contributed to most of the helicopter air ambulance accidents and incidents that occurred during the study period was also evidenced. The results of this study suggest that effective risk analysis programs should provide pilots with both preflight and in-flight resources. Copyright © 2014 Air Medical Journal Associates. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    PubMed

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Human Error Analysis in a Permit to Work System: A Case Study in a Chemical Plant

    PubMed Central

    Jahangiri, Mehdi; Hoboubi, Naser; Rostamabadi, Akbar; Keshavarzi, Sareh; Hosseini, Ali Akbar

    2015-01-01

    Background A permit to work (PTW) is a formal written system to control certain types of work which are identified as potentially hazardous. However, human error in PTW processes can lead to an accident. Methods This cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted to estimate the probability of human errors in PTW processes in a chemical plant in Iran. In the first stage, through interviewing the personnel and studying the procedure in the plant, the PTW process was analyzed using the hierarchical task analysis technique. In doing so, PTW was considered as a goal and detailed tasks to achieve the goal were analyzed. In the next step, the standardized plant analysis risk-human (SPAR-H) reliability analysis method was applied for estimation of human error probability. Results The mean probability of human error in the PTW system was estimated to be 0.11. The highest probability of human error in the PTW process was related to flammable gas testing (50.7%). Conclusion The SPAR-H method applied in this study could analyze and quantify the potential human errors and extract the required measures for reducing the error probabilities in PTW system. Some suggestions to reduce the likelihood of errors, especially in the field of modifying the performance shaping factors and dependencies among tasks are provided. PMID:27014485

  19. Analysis of driver casualty risk for different work zone types.

    PubMed

    Weng, Jinxian; Meng, Qiang

    2011-09-01

    Using driver casualty data from the Fatality Analysis Report System, this study examines driver casualty risk and investigates the risk contributing factors in the construction, maintenance and utility work zones. The multiple t-tests results show that the driver casualty risk is statistically different depending on the work zone type. Moreover, construction work zones have the largest driver casualty risk, followed by maintenance and utility work zones. Three separate logistic regression models are developed to predict driver casualty risk for the three work zone types because of their unique features. Finally, the effects of risk factors on driver casualty risk for each work zone type are examined and compared. For all three work zone types, five significant risk factors including road alignment, truck involvement, most harmful event, vehicle age and notification time are associated with increased driver casualty risk while traffic control devices and restraint use are associated with reduced driver casualty risk. However, one finding is that three risk factors (light condition, gender and day of week) exhibit opposing effects on the driver casualty risk in different types of work zones. This may largely be due to different work zone features and driver behavior in different types of work zones. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    PubMed

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  1. Risk-benefit analysis: from a logical point of view.

    PubMed

    Spielthenner, Georg

    2012-06-01

    In this paper I am concerned with risk-benefit analysis; that is, the comparison of the risks of a situation to its related benefits. We all face such situations in our daily lives and they are very common in medicine too, where risk-benefit analysis has become an important tool for rational decision-making. This paper explores risk-benefit analysis from a logical point of view. In particular, it seeks a better understanding of the common view that decisions should be made by weighing risks against benefits and that an option should be chosen if its benefits outweigh its risks. I devote a good deal of this paper scrutinizing this popular view. Specifically, I demonstrate that this mode of reasoning is logically faulty if "risk" and "benefit" are taken in their absolute sense. But I also show that arguing in favour of an action because its benefits outweigh its risks can be valid if we refer to incremental risks and benefits.

  2. Economic Risk Analysis: Using Analytical and Monte Carlo Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Donnell, Brendan R.; Hickner, Michael A.; Barna, Bruce A.

    2002-01-01

    Describes the development and instructional use of a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet template that facilitates analytical and Monte Carlo risk analysis of investment decisions. Discusses a variety of risk assessment methods followed by applications of the analytical and Monte Carlo methods. Uses a case study to illustrate use of the spreadsheet tool…

  3. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  4. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  5. USAWC Coronary Risk and Fitness Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-06-04

    hazardous chemicals or other to an increased risk of cancer of the (especially high fat diets) and bowel substances. mouth, throat , larynx (voice box...There is no sure technique lot death rate 60-80% greater than of the mouth, throat , larynx . giving up smoking People Nnmoke nonsmokers. They are more...mouth, throat . larynx . giving up smoking. People smoke nonsmokers. They are more likely esophagus, pancreas. and bladder. for different reasons and what

  6. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  7. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  8. American Airlines Propeller STOL Transport Economic Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ransone, B.

    1972-01-01

    A Monte Carlo risk analysis on the economics of STOL transports in air passenger traffic established the probability of making the expected internal rate of financial return, or better, in a hypothetical regular Washington/New York intercity operation.

  9. DOE 2009 Geothermal Risk Analysis: Methodology and Results (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    This presentation summarizes the methodology and results for a probabilistic risk analysis of research, development, and demonstration work-primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program.

  10. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    PubMed

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations.

  11. Successful risk assessment may not always lead to successful risk control: A systematic literature review of risk control after root cause analysis.

    PubMed

    Card, Alan J; Ward, James; Clarkson, P John

    2012-01-01

    Root cause analysis is perhaps the most widely used tool in healthcare risk management, but does it actually lead to successful risk control? Are there categories of risk control that are more likely to be effective? And do healthcare risk managers have the tools they need to support the risk control process? This systematic review examines how the healthcare sector translates risk analysis to risk control action plans and examines how to do better. It suggests that the hierarchy of risk controls should inform risk control action planning and that new tools should be developed to improve the risk control process.

  12. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    PubMed

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2016-11-28

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks.

  13. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheung, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.

  14. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheung, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.

  15. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  16. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    PubMed

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  17. The semantic distinction between "risk" and "danger": a linguistic analysis.

    PubMed

    Boholm, Max

    2012-02-01

    The analysis combines frame semantic and corpus linguistic approaches in analyzing the role of agency and decision making in the semantics of the words "risk" and "danger" (both nominal and verbal uses). In frame semantics, the meanings of "risk" and of related words, such as "danger," are analyzed against the background of a specific cognitive-semantic structure (a frame) comprising frame elements such as Protagonist, Bad Outcome, Decision, Possession, and Source. Empirical data derive from the British National Corpus (100 million words). Results indicate both similarities and differences in use. First, both "risk" and "danger" are commonly used to represent situations having potential negative consequences as the result of agency. Second, "risk" and "danger," especially their verbal uses (to risk, to endanger), differ in agent-victim structure, i.e., "risk" is used to express that a person affected by an action is also the agent of the action, while "endanger" is used to express that the one affected is not the agent. Third, "risk," but not "danger," tends to be used to represent rational and goal-directed action. The results therefore to some extent confirm the analysis of "risk" and "danger" suggested by German sociologist Niklas Luhmann. As a point of discussion, the present findings arguably have implications for risk communication.

  18. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation.

    PubMed

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2014-01-15

    An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. Land Use Adaptation Strategies Analysis in Landslide Risk Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yu-Ching; Chang, Chin-Hsin; Chen, Ying-Tung

    2013-04-01

    In order to respond to the impact of climate and environmental change on Taiwanese mountain region, this study used GTZ (2004) Risk analysis guidelines to assess the landslide risk for 178 Taiwanese mountain towns. This study used 7 indicators to assess landslide risk, which are rainfall distribution, natural environment vulnerability (e.g., rainfall threshold criterion for debris flow, historical disaster frequency, landslide ratio, and road density), physicality vulnerability (e.g., population density) and socio-economic vulnerability (e.g., population with higher education, death rate and income). The landslide risk map can be obtained by multiplying 7 indicators together and ranking the product. The map had 5 risk ranges, and towns within the range of 4 to 5, which are high landslide risk regions, and have high priority in reducing risk. This study collected the regions with high landslide risk regions and analyzed the difference after Typhoon Morakot (2009). The spatial distribution showed that after significant environmental damage high landslide risk regions moved from central to south Taiwan. The changeable pattern of risk regions pointed out the necessity of updating the risk map periodically. Based on the landslide risk map and the land use investigation data which was provided by the National Land Surveying and Mapping Center in 2007, this study calculated the size of the land use area with landslide disaster risk. According to the above results and discussion, this study can be used to suggest appropriate land use adaptation strategies provided for reducing landslide risk under the impact of climate and environmental change.

  20. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata gestures as he examines the spar installation (behind him) on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing via the spars - a series of floating joints - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-05

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata gestures as he examines the spar installation (behind him) on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing via the spars - a series of floating joints - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  1. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata (front) listens to William Gaetjens, with the Vehicle Integration Test Team (VITT), who is providing details about the spar installation (left) on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing via the spars - a series of floating joints - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-05

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata (front) listens to William Gaetjens, with the Vehicle Integration Test Team (VITT), who is providing details about the spar installation (left) on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing via the spars - a series of floating joints - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  2. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, Mike Hyatt, with United Space Alliance, installs a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-04

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, Mike Hyatt, with United Space Alliance, installs a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  3. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, John Newport, with United Space Alliance, inspects the wing of the orbiter Atlantis before installing a spar. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-04

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, John Newport, with United Space Alliance, inspects the wing of the orbiter Atlantis before installing a spar. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  4. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, John Newport, with United Space Alliance, inspects spar installation on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-04

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, John Newport, with United Space Alliance, inspects spar installation on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  5. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, Mike Hyatt (above) and Saul Ngy (below), with United Space Alliance, install a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-04

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, Mike Hyatt (above) and Saul Ngy (below), with United Space Alliance, install a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  6. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, John Newport, with United Space Alliance, inspects a piece of equipment for spar installation on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-04

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, John Newport, with United Space Alliance, inspects a piece of equipment for spar installation on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  7. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata (right) listens to William Gaetjens, with the Vehicle Integration Test Team (VITT), who is providing details about the spar installation (left) on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing via the spars - a series of floating joints - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-05

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata (right) listens to William Gaetjens, with the Vehicle Integration Test Team (VITT), who is providing details about the spar installation (left) on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing via the spars - a series of floating joints - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  8. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Mike Hyatt (left) and Saul Ngy, technicians with United Space Alliance, prepare to install a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. The Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-08-22

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Mike Hyatt (left) and Saul Ngy, technicians with United Space Alliance, prepare to install a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. The Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  9. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, John Newport, with United Space Alliance, inspects a spar to be installed on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-04

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, John Newport, with United Space Alliance, inspects a spar to be installed on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  10. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - William Gaetjens (background), with the Vehicle Integration Test Team (VITT) directs Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata’s attention to the spars installed on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing via the spars - a series of floating joints - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-05

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - William Gaetjens (background), with the Vehicle Integration Test Team (VITT) directs Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata’s attention to the spars installed on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing via the spars - a series of floating joints - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  11. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, Mike Hyatt (left) and Saul Ngy (right), with United Space Alliance, finish installing a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-09-04

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, Mike Hyatt (left) and Saul Ngy (right), with United Space Alliance, finish installing a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  12. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Technician Saul Ngy, with United Space Alliance, prepares to install a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. The Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-08-22

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Technician Saul Ngy, with United Space Alliance, prepares to install a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. The Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  13. KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Mike Hyatt (left) and Saul Ngy, technicians with United Space Alliance, install a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. The Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-08-22

    KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Mike Hyatt (left) and Saul Ngy, technicians with United Space Alliance, install a spar on the wing of the orbiter Atlantis. The Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) panels are mechanically attached to the wing with a series of floating joints - spars - to reduce loading on the panels caused by wing deflections. The aluminum and the metallic attachments are protected from exceeding temperature limits by internal insulation.

  14. From risk for trauma to unintentional injury risk: falls--a concept analysis. Nursing Diagnosis Extension and Classification Research Team.

    PubMed

    Schoenfelder, D P; Crowell, C M

    1999-01-01

    Concept analysis of the nursing diagnosis risk for trauma. To examine the nursing diagnosis risk for trauma and to specify the risk factors for falling. Research and informational articles on falling, and NANDA Nursing Diagnoses: Definitions and Classification, 1999-2000. Replace the current nursing diagnosis risk for trauma with the more specific nursing diagnosis unintentional injury risk: falls. The other risks included in risk for trauma (e.g., burns) also will need to be developed.

  15. Genesis of the Spar Lake strata-bound copper- silver deposit, Montana: part I. Controls inherited from sedimentation and preore diagenesis ( USA).

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayes, T.S.; Einaudi, M.T.

    1986-01-01

    Mineable zones of the Spar Lake deposit occur where argentiferous Cu sulfides and native Ag formed cements and replaced certain earlier cements and clasts in the gently dipping middle quartzite beds of the upper member of the Revett Formation, middle Proterozoic Belt Supergroup. The Cu sulfides and native Ag are part of a large, zoned system of authigenic ore and gangue minerals at Spar Lake. Mineral zone boundaries of ore and gangue phases cross all 5 stratigraphic units of the upper member. Deduced depositional environments for the host sedimentary rocks include beach and nearshore slope environments for the lower quartzite beds and subtidal(?) channels for the middle quartzite beds. The deposit must be epigenetic because mineral zone boundaries cross every facies in the sequence of beach and nearshore slope sediments. The distributions of mineral zones and ore grades were controlled by 2 factors, one inherited from sedimentation and the other from preore diagenesis.-from Authors

  16. The Shank3 Interaction Partner ProSAPiP1 Regulates Postsynaptic SPAR Levels and the Maturation of Dendritic Spines in Hippocampal Neurons

    PubMed Central

    Reim, Dominik; Weis, Tobias M.; Halbedl, Sonja; Delling, Jan Philipp; Grabrucker, Andreas M.; Boeckers, Tobias M.; Schmeisser, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    The postsynaptic density or PSD is a submembranous compartment containing a wide array of proteins that contribute to both morphology and function of excitatory glutamatergic synapses. In this study, we have analyzed functional aspects of the Fezzin ProSAP-interacting protein 1 (ProSAPiP1), an interaction partner of the well-known PSD proteins Shank3 and SPAR. Using lentiviral-mediated overexpression and knockdown of ProSAPiP1, we found that this protein is dispensable for the formation of both pre- and postsynaptic specializations per se. We further show that ProSAPiP1 regulates SPAR levels at the PSD and the maturation of dendritic spines. In line with previous findings on the ProSAPiP1 homolog PSD-Zip70, we conclude that Fezzins essentially contribute to the maturation of excitatory spine synapses. PMID:27252646

  17. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability

  18. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    PubMed

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2017-07-05

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Integrated Uncertainty Analysis for Ambient Pollutant Health Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Ozone Mortality Risk.

    PubMed

    Smith, Anne E; Glasgow, Garrett

    2017-05-18

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses health risk assessment to help inform its decisions in setting national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS). EPA's standard approach is to make epidemiologically-based risk estimates based on a single statistical model selected from the scientific literature, called the "core" model. The uncertainty presented for "core" risk estimates reflects only the statistical uncertainty associated with that one model's concentration-response function parameter estimate(s). However, epidemiologically-based risk estimates are also subject to "model uncertainty," which is a lack of knowledge about which of many plausible model specifications and data sets best reflects the true relationship between health and ambient pollutant concentrations. In 2002, a National Academies of Sciences (NAS) committee recommended that model uncertainty be integrated into EPA's standard risk analysis approach. This article discusses how model uncertainty can be taken into account with an integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) of health risk estimates. It provides an illustrative numerical example based on risk of premature death from respiratory mortality due to long-term exposures to ambient ozone, which is a health risk considered in the 2015 ozone NAAQS decision. This example demonstrates that use of IUA to quantitatively incorporate key model uncertainties into risk estimates produces a substantially altered understanding of the potential public health gain of a NAAQS policy decision, and that IUA can also produce more helpful insights to guide that decision, such as evidence of decreasing incremental health gains from progressive tightening of a NAAQS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  1. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  2. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    PubMed

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  3. Geotechnical risk analysis by flat dilatometer (DMT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amoroso, Sara; Monaco, Paola

    2015-04-01

    In the last decades we have assisted at a massive migration from laboratory testing to in situ testing, to the point that, today, in situ testing is often the major part of a geotechnical investigation. The State of the Art indicates that direct-push in situ tests, such as the Cone Penetration Test (CPT) and the Flat Dilatometer Test (DMT), are fast and convenient in situ tests for routine site investigation. In most cases the DMT estimated parameters, in particular the undrained shear strength su and the constrained modulus M, are used with the common design methods of Geotechnical Engineering for evaluating bearing capacity, settlements etc. The paper focuses on the prediction of settlements of shallow foundations, that is probably the No. 1 application of the DMT, especially in sands, where undisturbed samples cannot be retrieved, and on the risk associated with their design. A compilation of documented case histories that compare DMT-predicted vs observed settlements, was collected by Monaco et al. (2006), indicating that, in general, the constrained modulus M can be considered a reasonable "operative modulus" (relevant to foundations in "working conditions") for settlement predictions based on the traditional linear elastic approach. Indeed, the use of a site investigation method, such as DMT, that improve the accuracy of design parameters, reduces risk, and the design can then center on the site's true soil variability without parasitic test variability. In this respect, Failmezger et al. (1999, 2015) suggested to introduce Beta probability distribution, that provides a realistic and useful description of variability for geotechnical design problems. The paper estimates Beta probability distribution in research sites where DMT tests and observed settlements are available. References Failmezger, R.A., Rom, D., Ziegler, S.R. (1999). "SPT? A better approach of characterizing residual soils using other in-situ tests", Behavioral Characterics of Residual Soils, B

  4. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  5. Risk D&D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2009-05-28

    Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health & safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects.

  6. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: medicines.

    PubMed

    Luteijn, J M; White, B C; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Holm, F; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; McCarron, P A; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    Benefit-risk assessment in medicine has been a valuable tool in the regulation of medicines since the 1960s. Benefit-risk assessment takes place in multiple stages during a medicine's life-cycle and can be conducted in a variety of ways, using methods ranging from qualitative to quantitative. Each benefit-risk assessment method is subject to its own specific strengths and limitations. Despite its widespread and long-time use, benefit-risk assessment in medicine is subject to debate and suffers from a number of limitations and is currently still under development. This state of the art review paper will discuss the various aspects and approaches to benefit-risk assessment in medicine in a chronological pathway. The review will discuss all types of benefit-risk assessment a medicinal product will undergo during its lifecycle, from Phase I clinical trials to post-marketing surveillance and health technology assessment for inclusion in public formularies. The benefit-risk profile of a drug is dynamic and differs for different indications and patient groups. In the end of this review we conclude benefit-risk analysis in medicine is a developed practice that is subject to continuous improvement and modernisation. Improvement not only in methodology, but also in cooperation between organizations can improve benefit-risk assessment.

  7. Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

  8. Advancing Usability Evaluation through Human Reliability Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

    2005-07-01

    This paper introduces a novel augmentation to the current heuristic usability evaluation methodology. The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method was developed for categorizing human performance in nuclear power plants. Despite the specialized use of SPAR-H for safety critical scenarios, the method also holds promise for use in commercial off-the-shelf software usability evaluations. The SPAR-H method shares task analysis underpinnings with human-computer interaction, and it can be easily adapted to incorporate usability heuristics as performance shaping factors. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). This UEP is not a literal probability of error but nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. When combined with a consequence matrix for usability errors, this method affords ready prioritization of usability issues.

  9. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Mozambique.

    PubMed

    1996-12-01

    Mozambique's National STD/AIDS Control Program (NACP) estimates that, at present, about 8% of the population is infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The epidemic is expected to peak in 1997. By 2001, Mozambique is projected to have 1,650,000 HIV-positive adults 15-49 years of age, of whom 500,000 will have developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and 500,000 AIDS orphans. Incidence rates are highest in the country's central region, the transport corridors, and urban centers. The rapid spread of HIV has been facilitated by extreme poverty, the social upheaval and erosion of traditional norms created by years of political conflict and civil war, destruction of the primary health care infrastructure, growth of the commercial sex work trade, and labor migration to and from neighboring countries with high HIV prevalence. Moreover, about 10% of the adult population suffers from sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including genital ulcers. NACP, created in 1988, is attempting to curb the further spread of HIV through education aimed at changing high-risk behaviors and condom distribution to prevent STD transmission. Theater performances and radio/television programs are used to reach the large illiterate population. The integration of sex education and STD/AIDS information in the curricula of primary and secondary schools and universities has been approved by the Ministry of Education. Several private companies have been persuaded to distribute condoms to their employees. Finally, the confidentiality of HIV patients has been guaranteed. In 1993, the total AIDS budget was US $1.67 million, 50% of which was provided by the European Union. The European Commission seeks to develop a national strategy for managing STDs within the primary health care system.

  10. Quantitative Risk Analysis of Obstacle Limitation Standards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandaradura, Amila Silva

    Obstacle limitation surfaces (OLS) are the main safeguard against objects that can pose a hazard to aircraft operations at and around the airports. The standard dimensions of the most of these surfaces were estimated using the pilot's experience at the time when they were included in to the standard documents. As a result, some of these standards may have been overestimated while others may not provide an adequate level of safety. With airports moving to the Safety Management System (SMS) approach to design and operations safety, proper evaluation of the level of safety provided by OLS at specific sites becomes great importance to airport operators. There is no published evidence, however, for the estimation of the safety level provided by the existing OLS standards. Moreover, the rationale used by the ICAO to establish existing OLS standards is not readily available in the standard documents. Therefore this study attempts to collect actual flight path data using information provided by air traffic control radars and construct a methodology to assess the probability of aircraft deviating from their intended/protected path. The extension of the developed methodology can be used to estimate the OLS dimensions that provide an acceptable safety level for the aircraft operations. This will be helpful to estimate safe and efficient standard dimensions of the OLS and assess the risk level of objects to the aircraft operations around airports. In order to assess the existing standards and show the applications of the methodology, three case studies were conducted using aircraft data collected from Ottawa (CYOW), Calgary (CYYC) and Edmonton (CYEG) International Airports.

  11. Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-01

    Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

    2015-04-01

    A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies.

  13. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures.

  14. An integrated risk analysis methodology in a multidisciplinary design environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hampton, Katrina Renee

    Design of complex, one-of-a-kind systems, such as space transportation systems, is characterized by high uncertainty and, consequently, high risk. It is necessary to account for these uncertainties in the design process to produce systems that are more reliable. Systems designed by including uncertainties and managing them, as well, are more robust and less prone to poor operations as a result of parameter variability. The quantification, analysis and mitigation of uncertainties are challenging tasks as many systems lack historical data. In such an environment, risk or uncertainty quantification becomes subjective because input data is based on professional judgment. Additionally, there are uncertainties associated with the analysis tools and models. Both the input data and the model uncertainties must be considered for a multi disciplinary systems level risk analysis. This research synthesizes an integrated approach for developing a method for risk analysis. Expert judgment methodology is employed to quantify external risk. This methodology is then combined with a Latin Hypercube Sampling - Monte Carlo simulation to propagate uncertainties across a multidisciplinary environment for the overall system. Finally, a robust design strategy is employed to mitigate risk during the optimization process. This type of approach to risk analysis is conducive to the examination of quantitative risk factors. The core of this research methodology is the theoretical framework for uncertainty propagation. The research is divided into three stages or modules. The first two modules include the identification/quantification and propagation of uncertainties. The third module involves the management of uncertainties or response optimization. This final module also incorporates the integration of risk into program decision-making. The risk analysis methodology, is applied to a launch vehicle conceptual design study at NASA Langley Research Center. The launch vehicle multidisciplinary

  15. Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

    2016-08-13

    Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Credibility analysis of risk classes by generalized linear model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral

    2016-06-01

    In this paper generalized linear model (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of risk classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible risk classes are interpreted.

  17. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    PubMed

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume.

  18. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  19. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    PubMed

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  20. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2017-06-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  1. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a regulatory risk model

    SciTech Connect

    Kumar, A.; Manocha, A.; Shenoy, T.

    1999-07-01

    Health Risk Assessments (H.R.A.s) are increasingly being used in the environmental decision making process, starting from problem identification to the final clean up activities. A key issue concerning the results of these risk assessments is the uncertainty associated with them. This uncertainty has been associated with highly conservative estimates of risk assessment parameters in past studies. The primary purpose of this study was to investigate error propagation through a risk model. A hypothetical glass plant situated in the state of California was studied. Air emissions from this plant were modeled using the ISCST2 model and the risk was calculated using the ACE2588 model. The downwash was also considered during the concentration calculations. A sensitivity analysis on the risk computations identified five parameters--mixing depth for human consumption, deposition velocity, weathering constant, interception factors for vine crop and the average leaf vegetable consumption--which had the greatest impact on the calculated risk. A Monte Carlo analysis using these five parameters resulted in a distribution with a lesser percentage deviation than the percentage standard deviation of the input parameters.

  2. Dietary Patterns and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Lu, Pei-Ying; Shu, Long; Shen, Shan-Shan; Chen, Xu-Jiao; Zhang, Xiao-Yan

    2017-01-05

    A number of studies have examined the associations between dietary patterns and pancreatic cancer risk, but the findings have been inconclusive. Herein, we conducted this meta-analysis to assess the associations between dietary patterns and the risk of pancreatic cancer. MEDLINE (provided by the National Library of Medicine) and EBSCO (Elton B. Stephens Company) databases were searched for relevant articles published up to May 2016 that identified common dietary patterns. Thirty-two studies met the inclusion criteria and were finally included in this meta-analysis. A reduced risk of pancreatic cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest categories of healthy patterns (odds ratio, OR = 0.86; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.77-0.95; p = 0.004) and light-moderate drinking patterns (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.83-0.98; p = 0.02). There was evidence of an increased risk for pancreatic cancer in the highest compared with the lowest categories of western-type pattern (OR = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.06-1.45; p = 0.008) and heavy drinking pattern (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.10-1.48; p = 0.002). The results of this meta-analysis demonstrate that healthy and light-moderate drinking patterns may decrease the risk of pancreatic cancer, whereas western-type and heavy drinking patterns may increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. Additional prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

  3. A Graphical Model for Risk Analysis and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xun; Williams, Mary-Anne

    Risk analysis and management are important capabilities in intelligent information and knowledge systems. We present a new approach using directed graph based models for risk analysis and management. Our modelling approach is inspired by and builds on the two level approach of the Transferable Belief Model. The credal level for risk analysis and model construction uses beliefs in causal inference relations among the variables within a domain and a pignistic(betting) level for the decision making. The risk model at the credal level can be transformed into a probabilistic model through a pignistic transformation function. This paper focuses on model construction at the credal level. Our modelling approach captures expert knowledge in a formal and iterative fashion based on the Open World Assumption(OWA) in contrast to Bayesian Network based approaches for managing uncertainty associated with risks which assume all the domain knowledge and data have been captured before hand. As a result, our approach does not require complete knowledges and is well suited for modelling risk in dynamic changing environments where information and knowledge is gathered over time as decisions need to be taken. Its performance is related to the quality of the knowledge at hand at any given time.

  4. A quantitative analysis of fish consumption and stroke risk.

    PubMed

    Bouzan, Colleen; Cohen, Joshua T; Connor, William E; Kris-Etherton, Penny M; Gray, George M; König, Ariane; Lawrence, Robert S; Savitz, David A; Teutsch, Steven M

    2005-11-01

    Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high-MeHg fish to reduce MeHg exposure, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of the nutritional benefits. The Harvard Center for Risk Analysis convened an expert panel (see acknowledgements) to quantify the net impact of resulting hypothetical changes in fish consumption across the population. This paper estimates the impact of fish consumption on stroke risk. Other papers quantify coronary heart disease mortality risk and the impacts of both prenatal MeHg exposure and maternal intake of n-3 PUFAs on cognitive development. This analysis identified articles in a recent qualitative literature review that are appropriate for the development of a dose-response relationship between fish consumption and stroke risk. Studies had to satisfy quality criteria, quantify fish intake, and report the precision of the relative risk estimates. The analysis combined the relative risk results, weighting each proportionately to its precision. Six studies were identified as appropriate for inclusion in this analysis, including five prospective cohort studies and one case-control study (total of 24 exposure groups). Our analysis indicates that any fish consumption confers substantial relative risk reduction compared to no fish consumption (12% for the linear model), with the possibility that additional consumption confers incremental benefits (central estimate of 2.0% per serving per week).

  5. Risk Analysis Methodology for Kistler's K-1 Reusable Launch Vehicle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Birkeland, Paul W.

    2002-01-01

    Missile risk analysis methodologies were originally developed in the 1940s as the military experimented with intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology. As the range of these missiles increased, it became apparent that some means of assessing the risk posed to neighboring populations was necessary to gauge the relative safety of a given test. There were many unknowns at the time, and technology was unpredictable at best. Risk analysis itself was in its infancy. Uncertainties in technology and methodology led to an ongoing bias toward conservative assumptions to adequately bound the problem. This methodology ultimately became the Casualty Expectation Analysis that is used to license Expendable Launch Vehicles (ELVs). A different risk analysis approach was adopted by the commercial aviation industry in the 1950s. At the time, commercial aviation technology was more firmly in hand than ICBM technology. Consequently commercial aviation risk analysis focused more closely on the hardware characteristics. Over the years, this approach has enabled the advantages of technological and safety advances in commercial aviation hardware to manifest themselves in greater capabilities and opportunities. The Boeing 777, for example, received approval for trans-oceanic operations "out of the box," where all previous aircraft were required, at the very least, to demonstrate operations over thousands of hours before being granted such approval. This "out of the box" approval is likely to become standard for all subsequent designs. In short, the commercial aircraft approach to risk analysis created a more flexible environment for industry evolution and growth. In contrast, the continued use of the Casualty Expectation Analysis by the launch industry is likely to hinder industry maturation. It likely will cause any safety and reliability gains incorporated into RLV design to be masked by the conservative assumptions made to "bound the problem." Consequently, for the launch

  6. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    PubMed

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB).

  7. DMAICR in an ergonomic risks analysis.

    PubMed

    Santos, E F; Lima, C R C

    2012-01-01

    The DMAICR problem-solving methodology is used throughout this paper to show you how to implement ergonomics recommendations. The DMAICR method consists of the following five six steps by which you can solve ergonomic design problems: The steps of the proposed method, adapting DMAICR, are the following: In the steep D, there is the definition of the project or the situation to be assessed and its guiding objectives, known as demand. In the step M, it relates to the work, tasks and organizational protocols and also includes the need of measuring. In the step A, all concepts are about the analysis itself. The step I is the moment of improving or incrementing. In the step C, control, prevention from prospective troublesome situation and implementation of management are the activities controlling the situation. R is Report. Some relevant technical and conceptual aspects for the comparison of these methodologies are illustrated in this paper. The steps of DMAICR were taken by a multifunctional team (multi-professional and multi-disciplinary) termed as focus group, composed by selected members of the company and supported by experts in ergonomics.

  8. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Risk Analysis Study.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2005-11-01

    The Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS), operated on behalf of the ratepayers of the PNW by BPA and other Federal agencies, faces many uncertainties during the FY 2007-2009 rate period. Among these uncertainties, the largest revolve around hydro conditions, market prices and river operations for fish recovery. In order to provide a high probability of making its U.S. Treasury payments, BPA performs a Risk Analysis as part of its rate-making process. In this Risk Analysis, BPA identifies key risks, models their relationships, and then analyzes their impacts on net revenues (total revenues less expenses). BPA subsequently evaluates in the ToolKit Model the Treasury Payment Probability (TPP) resulting from the rates, risks, and risk mitigation measures described here and in the Wholesale Power Rate Development Study (WPRDS). If the TPP falls short of BPA's standard, additional risk mitigation revenues, such as PNRR and CRAC revenues are incorporated in the modeling in ToolKit until the TPP standard is met. Increased wholesale market price volatility and six years of drought have significantly changed the profile of risk and uncertainty facing BPA and its stakeholders. These present new challenges for BPA in its effort to keep its power rates as low as possible while fully meeting its obligations to the U.S. Treasury. As a result, the risk BPA faces in not receiving the level of secondary revenues that have been credited to power rates before receiving those funds is greater. In addition to market price volatility, BPA also faces uncertainty around the financial impacts of operations for fish programs in FY 2006 and in the FY 2007-2009 rate period. A new Biological Opinion or possible court-ordered change to river operations in FY 2006 through FY 2009 may reduce BPA's net revenues included Initial Proposal. Finally, the FY 2007-2009 risk analysis includes new operational risks as well as a more comprehensive analysis of non-operating risks. Both the operational

  9. Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

    PubMed

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2015-12-01

    Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

  10. From risk analysis to risk governance - Adapting to an ever more complex future.

    PubMed

    Pfeiffer, Dirk U

    2014-01-01

    Risk analysis is now widely accepted amongst veterinary authorities and other stakeholders around the world as a conceptual framework for integrating scientific evidence into animal health decision making. The resulting risk management for most diseases primarily involves linking epidemiological understanding with diagnostics and/or vaccines. Recent disease outbreaks such as Nipah virus, SARS, avian influenza H5N1, bluetongue serotype 8 and Schmallenberg virus have led to realising that we need to explicitly take into account the underlying complex interactions between environmental, epidemiological and social factors which are often also spatially and temporally heterogeneous as well as interconnected across affected regions and beyond. A particular challenge is to obtain adequate understanding of the influence of human behaviour and to translate this into effective mechanisms leading to appropriate behaviour change where necessary. Both, the One Health and the ecohealth approaches reflect the need for such a holistic systems perspective, however the current implementation of risk analysis frameworks for animal health and food safety is still dominated by a natural or biomedical perspective of science as is the implementation of control and prevention policies. This article proposes to integrate the risk analysis approach with a risk governance framework which explicitly adds the socio-economic context to policy development and emphasizes the need for organisational change and stakeholder engagement.

  11. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  12. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    PubMed

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  13. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Engineering risk analysis of a hospital oxygen supply system.

    PubMed

    Deleris, Léa A; Yeo, Gee Liek; Seiver, Adam; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2006-01-01

    Reports from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO) have emphasized the potential for injury to patients caused by failures in oxygen supply systems. This article presents a model of patient risk related to the process of supplying oxygen at a single university hospital. One of the goals of the article is to illustrate how probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) can be used by hospitals to assess and mitigate risk and, therefore, to meet JCAHO requirements. PRA techniques are useful to 1) model the reliability of a complex system and 2) assess the cost-effectiveness of different risk mitigation measures. The authors focus on the risk estimation step, describing in detail their modeling of the oxygen supply system and analysis of the results. For the hospital that the authors study (20,000 admissions yearly), the total expected number of fatalities from oxygen system failure is 44 over a 30-year time horizon. The greatest contribution to the risk (94% of the expected number of fatalities) comes from problems that involve the supply network (e.g., damage to structure and poisoning) as opposed to incidents that occur inside patient rooms. Although the threat to patient safety is not dramatic, health care organizations should be concerned about potential failures of their oxygen system because improving this system could avoid low-probability, high-consequence failures at a low cost.

  15. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  16. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    SciTech Connect

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  17. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  18. Cancer risk factors in Korean news media: a content analysis.

    PubMed

    Kye, Su Yeon; Kwon, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Yong-Chan; Shim, Minsun; Kim, Jee Hyun; Cho, Hyunsoon; Jung, Kyu Won; Park, Keeho

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the news coverage of cancer risk factors in Korea. This study aimed to examine how the news media encompasses a wide array of content regarding cancer risk factors and related cancer sites, and investigate whether news coverage of cancer risk factors is congruent with the actual prevalence of the disease. A content analysis was conducted on 1,138 news stories covered during a 5-year period between 2008 and 2012. The news stories were selected from nationally representative media in Korea. Information was collected about cancer risk factors and cancer sites. Of various cancer risk factors, occupational and environmental exposures appeared most frequently in the news. Breast cancer was mentioned the most in relation to cancer sites. Breast, cervical, prostate, and skin cancer were overrepresented in the media in comparison to incidence and mortality cases, whereas lung, thyroid, liver, and stomach cancer were underrepresented. To our knowledge, this research is the first investigation dealing with news coverage about cancer risk factors in Korea. The study findings show occupational and environmental exposures are emphasized more than personal lifestyle factors; further, more prevalent cancers in developed countries have greater media coverage, not reflecting the realities of the disease. The findings may help health journalists and other health storytellers to develop effective ways to communicate cancer risk factors.

  19. Meta-analysis of modifiable risk factors for Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Xu, Wei; Tan, Lan; Wang, Hui-Fu; Jiang, Teng; Tan, Meng-Shan; Tan, Lin; Zhao, Qing-Fei; Li, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jin-Tai

    2015-12-01

    The aetiology of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is believed to involve environmental exposure and genetic susceptibility. The aim of our present systematic review and meta-analysis was to roundly evaluate the association between AD and its modifiable risk factors. We systematically searched PubMed and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception to July 2014, and the references of retrieved relevant articles. We included prospective cohort studies and retrospective case-control studies. 16,906 articles were identified of which 323 with 93 factors met the inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Among factors with relatively strong evidence (pooled population >5000) in our meta-analysis, we found grade I evidence for 4 medical exposures (oestrogen, statin, antihypertensive medications and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs therapy) as well as 4 dietary exposures (folate, vitamin E/C and coffee) as protective factors of AD. We found grade I evidence showing that one biochemical exposure (hyperhomocysteine) and one psychological condition (depression) significantly increase risk of developing AD. We also found grade I evidence indicative of complex roles of pre-existing disease (frailty, carotid atherosclerosis, hypertension, low diastolic blood pressure, type 2 diabetes mellitus (Asian population) increasing risk whereas history of arthritis, heart disease, metabolic syndrome and cancer decreasing risk) and lifestyle (low education, high body mass index (BMI) in mid-life and low BMI increasing the risk whereas cognitive activity, current smoking (Western population), light-to-moderate drinking, stress, high BMI in late-life decreasing the risk) in influencing AD risk. We identified no evidence suggestive of significant association with occupational exposures. Effective interventions in diet, medications, biochemical exposures, psychological condition, pre-existing disease and lifestyle may decrease new incidence of AD. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group

  20. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  1. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    SciTech Connect

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N. Andritsos, Nikolaos Psomas, Antonios Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  2. Using landslide risk analysis to protect fish habitat

    Treesearch

    R. M. Rice

    1986-01-01

    The protection of anadromous fish habitat is an important water quslity concern in the Pacific Northwest. Sediment from logging-related debris avalanches can cause habitat degradation. Research on conditions associated with the sites where debris avalanches originate has resulted in a risk assessment methodology based on linear discriminant analysis. The probability...

  3. Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

    PubMed

    Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

    2005-08-31

    Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

  4. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    INTRODUCTION: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR CUMULATIVE RISK

    Hugh A. Barton1 and Carey N. Pope2
    1US EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
    2Department of...

  5. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    INTRODUCTION: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR CUMULATIVE RISK

    Hugh A. Barton1 and Carey N. Pope2
    1US EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
    2Department of...

  6. Allergy reduces the risk of meningioma: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Peng-fei; Ji, Wen-Jun; Zhang, Xiao-hui; Li, Shou-wei; Yan, Chang-Xiang

    2017-01-01

    Meningiomas are the most common brain tumours; however, little is known regarding their aetiology. The data are inconsistent concerning atopic disease and the risk of developing meningioma. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the association between allergic conditions and the risk of developing meningioma. A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed and Web of SCI from Jan 1979 to Feb 2016. Two investigators independently selected the relevant articles according to the inclusion criteria. Eight case-control studies and 2 cohort studies were included in the final analysis, comprising 5,679 meningioma cases and 55,621 control subjects. Compared with no history of allergy, the pooled odds ratio (OR) for allergic conditions was 0.81 (0.70–0.94) for meningioma in a random-effects meta-analysis. Inverse correlations of meningioma occurrence were also identified for asthma and eczema, in which the pooled ORs were 0.78 (0.70–0.86) and 0.78 (0.69–0.87), respectively. A reduced risk of meningioma occurrence was identified in hay fever; however, the association was weak (0.88, 95% CI = 0.78–0.99). The source of this heterogeneity could be the various confounding variables in individual studies. Overall, the current meta-analysis indicated that allergy reduced the risk of developing meningiomas. Large cohort studies are required to investigate this relationship. PMID:28071746

  7. Risk management of domino effects considering dynamic consequence analysis.

    PubMed

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Cozzani, Valerio

    2014-06-01

    Domino effects are low-probability high-consequence accidents causing severe damage to humans, process plants, and the environment. Because domino effects affect large areas and are difficult to control, preventive safety measures have been given priority over mitigative measures. As a result, safety distances and safety inventories have been used as preventive safety measures to reduce the escalation probability of domino effects. However, these safety measures are usually designed considering static accident scenarios. In this study, we show that compared to a static worst-case accident analysis, a dynamic consequence analysis provides a more rational approach for risk assessment and management of domino effects. This study also presents the application of Bayesian networks and conflict analysis to risk-based allocation of chemical inventories to minimize the consequences and thus to reduce the escalation probability. It emphasizes the risk management of chemical inventories as an inherent safety measure, particularly in existing process plants where the applicability of other safety measures such as safety distances is limited. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Safety risk analysis of an innovative environmental technology.

    PubMed

    Parnell, G S; Frimpon, M; Barnes, J; Kloeber, J M; Deckro, R E; Jackson, J A

    2001-02-01

    The authors describe a decision and risk analysis performed for the cleanup of a large Department of Energy mixed-waste subsurface disposal area governed by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). In a previous study, the authors worked with the site decision makers, state regulators, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regional regulators to develop a CERCLA-based multiobjective decision analysis value model and used the model to perform a screening analysis of 28 remedial alternatives. The analysis results identified an innovative technology, in situ vitrification, with high effectiveness versus cost. Since this technology had not been used on this scale before, the major uncertainties were contaminant migration and pressure buildup. Pressure buildup was a safety concern due to the potential risks to worker safety. With the help of environmental technology experts remedial alternative changes were identified to mitigate the concerns about contaminant migration and pressure buildup. The analysis results showed that the probability of an event with a risk to worker safety had been significantly reduced. Based on these results, site decision makers have refocused their test program to examine in situ vitrification and have continued the use of the CERCLA-based decision analysis methodology to analyze remedial alternatives.

  9. Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

    PubMed

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

    2009-04-01

    Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

  10. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  11. RASOR Project: Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation of Risk, from Hazard to Risk using EO data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Over recent decades, there has been a dramatic rise in disasters, and their impact on human populations. Escalation in complexities in our societies is making risks increasingly difficult to understand and changing the ways in which hazards interact with each other. The Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk (RASOR) project developed a multi-hazard risk analysis platform to support the full cycle of disaster management. RASOR provides up-to-date hazard information across floods and geohazards, up-to-date exposure data from known sources and newly-generated EO-based data, and characterised quantitatively their vulnerabilities. RASOR also adapts the newly-developed 12m resolution global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to risk management applications, using it as a base layer to develop specific disaster scenarios. RASOR overlays archived and near real-time very high resolution optical and radar satellite data, combined with in situ data for both global and local applications. A scenario-driven query system allows users to project situations into the future and model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event. Applications with regards to different case study sites are presented in order to illustrate the platform potential.

  12. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    PubMed

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Dietary Factors Affecting Thyroid Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Cho, Young Ae; Kim, Jeongseon

    2015-01-01

    Some dietary factors are proposed to affect thyroid carcinogenesis, but previous studies have reported inconsistent findings. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis, including 18 eligible studies, to clarify the role of dietary factors in the risk of thyroid cancer. The relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated to assess the association and heterogeneity tests and subgroup and sensitivity analyses, and bias assessments were performed. When the results from all studies were combined, dietary iodine, fish, and cruciferous vegetable intake were not associated with thyroid cancer. However, when the data were divided by geographic location based on iodine availability, a slight increase in the risk of thyroid cancer was observed among those consuming a high total amount of fish in iodine nondeficient areas (RR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03-1.35; P for heterogeneity = 0.282). When excluding the studies examining a single food item and hospital-based controls, a high intake of cruciferous vegetables was associated with an increased risk of thyroid cancer in iodine-deficient areas (RR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.18-1.74; P for heterogeneity = 0.426). This meta-analysis implies that the role of dietary factors, such as fish and cruciferous vegetables, in thyroid cancer risk can differ based on iodine availability.

  14. Risk analysis of colorectal cancer in women with endometrial carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Fornasarig, Mara; Minisini, Alessandro Marco; Clementi, Silvia; Bidoli, Ettore; Viel, Alessandra; Cannizzaro, Renato; Campagnutta, Elio; Boz, Gianni; Libra, Massimo

    2008-01-01

    Endometrial carcinoma (EC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) are closely linked in a well-documented, predominantly inherited cancer syndrome known as hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC). Epidemiological studies report that women with EC have a 1.5- to 3-fold increased risk of developing CRC. However, this elevated risk could be the consequence of genetic confounding. In order to plan a proper CRC prevention program, we sought to verify and quantify this risk, first estimating it in 697 women with EC who received treatment and follow-up in one health care district between 1986 and 2000. The standardised incidence ratio (SIR), which compares observed with expected cases of CRC in the general population, was calculated. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds ratio and 95% confidence interval of a dependent variable, second primary CRC, as a function of clinical and pathological features. Multiple primary tumours were observed in 6.7% of the patients, with CRC being the second most frequently occurring type of cancer. The estimated overall risk for CRC was slightly higher than that observed in the general population, but was nonetheless not statistically significant. Multivariate analysis revealed a family history of CRC to be a risk factor for developing the disease as a second primary cancer. A BMI ≤25 and the pathological spectrum of EC were clinical and pathological features associated with CRC development, but were without statistical significance. MSH2 and MLH1 mutational screening confirmed genetic involvement in most of the CRCs observed in the cohort. Overall, the data show that women with EC have a CRC risk similar to that of the general population, and should therefore be screened on the basis of risk factors for CRC.

  15. Expert opinion in risk analysis: The NUREG-1150 methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Hora, S.C.; Iman, R.L.

    1988-01-01

    The Reactor Risk Reference Document (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1987) is the most comprehensive study and application of probabilistic risk analysis and uncertainty analysis methods for nuclear power generation safety since the Reactor Safety Study (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1975). Many of the issues addressed in PRA work such as NUREG-1150 involve phenomena that have not been studied through experiment or observation to an extent that makes possible a definitive analysis. In many instances, the rarity or severity of the phenomena make resolution impossible at this time. In these instances, the best available information resides with experts who have studied the phenomena in question. This paper is about a reasoned approach to the acquisition of expert opinion for use in PRA work and other public policy areas.

  16. Analysis of automated highway system risks and uncertainties. Volume 5

    SciTech Connect

    Sicherman, A.

    1994-10-01

    This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs and benefits for a range of AHS deployment scenarios. The analysis identified a suite of key factors affecting vehicle and roadway costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgments of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices.

  17. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  18. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  19. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

    2017-05-01

    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  20. Alzheimer disease and cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Shi, Hai-bin; Tang, Bo; Liu, Yao-Wen; Wang, Xue-Feng; Chen, Guo-Jun

    2015-03-01

    Alzheimer disease (AD) and cancer are seemingly two opposite ends of one spectrum. Studies have suggested that patients with AD showed a reduced risk of cancer and vice versa. However, available evidences are not conclusive. So we conducted a meta-analysis using published literatures to systematically examine cancer risk in AD patients. A PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science search were conducted in May 2014. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) with their corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using random-effects meta-analysis. We tested for publication bias and heterogeneity, and stratified for study characteristics, smoking-related cancers versus nonsmoking-related cancers, and site-specific cancers. Nine studies were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with controls, the pooled RR of cancer in AD patients was 0.55 (95 % CI 0.41-0.75), with significant heterogeneity among these studies (P < 0.001, I(2) = 83.5 %). The reduced cancer risk was more substantial when we restricted analyses to cohort studies, studies with adjusted estimates, studies defining AD by generally accepted criteria, and studies with longer length of follow-up. In sub-analyses for site-specific cancers, only lung cancer showed significant decreased risk (RR 0.72; 95 % CI 0.56-0.91). We did not find significant publication bias (P = 0.251 for Begg and Mazumdar's test and P = 0.143 for Egger's regression asymmetry test). These results support an association between AD and decreased cancer risk.

  1. Dietary Patterns and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Pei-Ying; Shu, Long; Shen, Shan-Shan; Chen, Xu-Jiao; Zhang, Xiao-Yan

    2017-01-01

    A number of studies have examined the associations between dietary patterns and pancreatic cancer risk, but the findings have been inconclusive. Herein, we conducted this meta-analysis to assess the associations between dietary patterns and the risk of pancreatic cancer. MEDLINE (provided by the National Library of Medicine) and EBSCO (Elton B. Stephens Company) databases were searched for relevant articles published up to May 2016 that identified common dietary patterns. Thirty-two studies met the inclusion criteria and were finally included in this meta-analysis. A reduced risk of pancreatic cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest categories of healthy patterns (odds ratio, OR = 0.86; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.77–0.95; p = 0.004) and light–moderate drinking patterns (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.83–0.98; p = 0.02). There was evidence of an increased risk for pancreatic cancer in the highest compared with the lowest categories of western-type pattern (OR = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.06–1.45; p = 0.008) and heavy drinking pattern (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.10–1.48; p = 0.002). The results of this meta-analysis demonstrate that healthy and light–moderate drinking patterns may decrease the risk of pancreatic cancer, whereas western-type and heavy drinking patterns may increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. Additional prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings. PMID:28067765

  2. Hybrid Safety Analysis Using Functional and Risk Decompositions

    SciTech Connect

    COOPER,J. ARLIN; JOHNSON,ALICE J.; WERNER,PAUL W.

    2000-07-15

    Safety analysis of complex systems depends on decomposing the systems into manageable subsystems, from which analysis can be rolled back up to the system level. The authors have found that there is no single best way to decompose; in fact hybrid combinations of decompositions are generally necessary to achieve optimum results. They are currently using two backbone coordinated decompositions--functional and risk, supplemented by other types, such as organizational. An objective is to derive metrics that can be used to efficiently and accurately aggregate information through analysis, to contribute toward assessing system safety, and to contribute information necessary for defensible decisions.

  3. An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risks in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Bruijn, K. M.; Diermanse, F. L. M.; Beckers, J. V. L.

    2014-02-01

    This paper discusses the new method developed to analyse flood risks in river deltas. Risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and since the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risks must be taken into account. A Monte Carlo based flood risk analysis framework for policy making was developed, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes hydrodynamic interaction effects on flood risks. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risks (the probability of events with more than N fatalities) in the Rhine-Meuse delta.

  4. An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risk in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Bruijn, K. M.; Diermanse, F. L. M.; Beckers, J. V. L.

    2014-10-01

    This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risk must be taken into account. This paper presents a Monte Carlo-based flood risk analysis framework for policy making, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes effects from hydrodynamic interaction on flood risk. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risk in the Rhine-Meuse delta.

  5. Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks--heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm.

    PubMed

    Prpich, G; Dagonneau, J; Rocks, S A; Lickorish, F; Pollard, S J T

    2013-10-01

    We summarise our recent efforts on the policy-level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below.

  6. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  7. Tea consumption and leukemia risk: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhong, Shanliang; Chen, Zhiyuan; Yu, Xinnian; Chen, Weixian; Lv, Mengmeng; Ma, Tengfei; Zhao, Jianhua

    2014-06-01

    Epidemiologic findings concerning the association between tea consumption and leukemia risk yielded mixed results. We aimed to investigate the association by performing a meta-analysis of all available studies. One cohort studies and six case-control studies with 1,019 cases were identified using PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE. We computed summary relative risks (RRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) using random effect model applied to the relative risk associated with ever, moderate, or highest drinkers vs. non/lowest drinkers. Subgroup analyses were performed based on country (China and USA). Compared with non/lowest drinkers, the combined RR for ever drinkers was 0.76 (95 % CI=0.65-0.89). In subgroup analyses, significant inverse associations were found for both China and USA studies. The summary RR was 0.57 (95 % CI=0.41-0.78) for highest drinkers. Same results were only found in China studies. No significant associations were found for moderate drinkers in overall analysis or in subgroup analyses. There was some evidence of publication bias. In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggests a significant inverse association of high tea consumption and leukemia risk. Results should be interpreted cautiously given the potential publication bias.

  8. Cancer risk in waterpipe smokers: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Mamtani, Ravinder; Cheema, Sohaila; Sheikh, Javaid; Al Mulla, Ahmad; Lowenfels, Albert; Maisonneuve, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    To quantify by meta-analysis the relationship between waterpipe smoking and cancer, including cancer of the head and neck, esophagus, stomach, lung and bladder. We performed a systematic literature search to identify relevant studies, scored their quality, used fixed and random-effect models to estimate summary relative risks (SRR), evaluated heterogeneity and publication bias. We retrieved information from 28 published reports. Considering only highquality studies, waterpipe smoking was associated with increased risk of head and neck cancer (SRR 2.97; 95 % CI 2.26-3.90), esophageal cancer (1.84; 1.42-2.38) and lung cancer (2.22; 1.24-3.97), with no evidence of heterogeneity or publication bias. Increased risk was also observed for stomach and bladder cancer but based mainly on poor-quality studies. For colorectum, liver and for all sites combined risk estimates were elevated, but there were insufficient reports to perform a meta-analysis. Contrary to the perception of the relative safety of waterpipe smoking, this meta-analysis provides quantitative estimates of its association with cancers of the head and neck, esophagus and lung. The scarcity and limited quality of available reports point out the need for larger carefully designed studies in well-defined populations.

  9. Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

    2016-04-01

    Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

  10. Soil and waste analysis for environmental risk assessment in France.

    PubMed

    Sterckeman, T; Gomez, A; Ciesielski, H

    1996-01-19

    In France today, analysis of soil and waste after digestion by strong acids is a technique used for the estimation of environmental risks due to soil pollution and spreading of wastes on cultivated soils. The technique of digestion by strong acid accounts for total or 'near total' content of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Se and Zn. Risk management based on these methods aims to minimize the risks, since the concentration limits are derived from the geochemical levels. However, this method of analysis gives no idea of the extent to which elements are really transferable or bioavailable. Analytical methods based on partial extraction are used to discern deficiencies in B, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn in soil. These extractions are carried out using boiling water and EDTA or DTPA solutions. The extraction methods have been standardized for use in agriculture, but have not been tested for assessing the risks due to the pollution by trace elements. One partial extraction method has been standardized for the analysis of wastes. It uses successive water extractions. Researchers have studied different partial extraction methods for estimating the bioavailability of mineral pollutants. Some of them gave results which correlated well with the amounts taken up by plants. However, at present, no general frame of reference has yet been established for the interpretation of results on a broad scale.

  11. Coffee consumption and hip fracture risk: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Li, Xin-Li; Xu, Jiu-Hong

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the effect of coffee consumption on hip fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted. The PubMed database was screened for all published studies about coffee consumption and hip fracture through to November 2011. Reviews, PubMed option 'related articles' and references of retrieved papers were also searched for potentially relevant papers. Only studies that contained OR with 95 % CI for the association between coffee consumption and hip fracture risk were included. The summary risk estimates were calculated by fixed- and random-effects models. Subgroup analyses were carried out stratified by study designs and participant characteristics, respectively. A total of six prospective cohort studies and six case-control studies were included in the final analysis. The pooled OR displayed increased risk of hip fracture by 29·7 % (95 % CI 0·960, 1·751; P = 0·09) for the highest compared with the lowest coffee consumption by the random-effects model (P for heterogeneity = 0·000; I (2) = 84·0 %), but the result had no statistical significance. Subgroup analyses showed that coffee consumption significantly increased hip fracture risk by 54·7 % (95 % CI 1·152, 2·077; P = 0·004) among women, by 40·1 % (95 % CI 1·015, 1·935; P = 0·040) for elderly participants aged over 70 years, and by 68·3 % for Northern Americans (95 % CI 1·492, 1·899; P = 0·000). Other subgroup analyses according to data published before the year 2000 showed a positive association between coffee and hip fracture risk, and follow-up duration also positively affected hip fracture risk, especially when the follow-up length was less than 13 years. Although our meta-analysis has provided insufficient evidence that coffee consumption significantly increases hip fracture risk, coffee intake may increase hip fracture risk among women, elderly participants and Northern Americans. No dose-response pattern was observed.

  12. Risk Interfaces to Support Integrated Systems Analysis and Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objectives for systems analysis capability: Develop integrated understanding of how a complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. Why? Support development of integrated solutions that prevent unwanted outcomes (Implementable approaches to minimize mission resources(mass, power, crew time, etc.)); Support development of tools for autonomy (need for exploration) (Assess and maintain resilience -individuals, teams, integrated system). Output of this exercise: -Representation of interfaces based on Human System Risk Board (HSRB) Risk Summary information and simple status based on Human Research Roadmap; Consolidated HSRB information applied to support communication; Point-of-Departure for HRP Element planning; Ability to track and communicate status of collaborations. 4

  13. Framework for Comparative Risk Analysis of Dredged Material Disposal Options.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-10-01

    biomagnification of some organochlorine compounds (e.g., DDT , PCB). The objectives of the following analysis are to: 9 Describe the limitations of the...common carcinogens may lead to average lifetime cancer risks as high as 7x10- 4 (Table A-i. Cigarette smokers experience higher risks; e.%., on the order...0.060000000 92-94 4,4’- DDT , DD, DDE 3.000000000 1.000000000 0.100000000 35 2,4-dinitrotoluene 3.000000000 1.000000000 0.100000000 3 acrylonitrile 4.000000000

  14. Adversarial Risk Analysis for Urban Security Resource Allocation.

    PubMed

    Gil, César; Rios Insua, David; Rios, Jesus

    2016-04-01

    Adversarial risk analysis (ARA) provides a framework to deal with risks originating from intentional actions of adversaries. We show how ARA may be used to allocate security resources in the protection of urban spaces. We take into account the spatial structure and consider both proactive and reactive measures, in that we aim at both trying to reduce criminality as well as recovering as best as possible from it, should it happen. We deal with the problem by deploying an ARA model over each spatial unit, coordinating the models through resource constraints, value aggregation, and proximity. We illustrate our approach with an example that uncovers several relevant policy issues.

  15. Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

  16. Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

    PubMed Central

    Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

    2015-01-01

    Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

  17. Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

  18. Groundwater-risk analysis of New York utilizing GIS technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hillenbrand, Charles John, III

    Using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, data layers can be processed and analyzed to produce a regional groundwater-risk grid of New York State (NYS). GIS can be used to assess the potential to introduce contaminants at the ground surface, and assess the potential for the contaminants to migrate through the vadose zone and be introduced to an aquifer at the water-table. The potential to introduce contaminants to the ground surface was assessed utilizing existing database information in combination with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Resolution Land Classification (MRLC) land use grid. The databases allowed an analysis of contaminant association with Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes, risk evaluation of the contaminants using groundwater intake values protective of human health, the development of SIC code-risk values, the construction of a SIC code-risked facility point coverage, and the construction of a land use-risk grid; this grid assesses the potential to introduce contaminants to the ground surface. Aquifer susceptibility was determined by analyzing vadose zone residence time assuming saturated conditions. Vadose zone residence time is a measure of the vadose zone's ability to attenuate and retard the migration of contaminants. Existing data layers were processed to produce a depth to water-table (vadose zone thickness) grid. Existing GIS data layers of soil, surficial geology and bedrock geology, along with review of literature and pump/slug test data, enabled the creation of thickness, porosity and vertical hydraulic conductivity grids for the three considered components of the vadose zone. The average linear velocity was then calculated for each vadose zone component by dividing their hydraulic conductivity grid by their respective porosity grid. The thickness grid of each vadose zone component was then divided by their respective average linear velocity grid to produce vadose zone residence time grids. The sum

  19. Meta-analysis of osteoporosis: fracture risks, medication and treatment.

    PubMed

    Liu, W; Yang, L-H; Kong, X-C; An, L-K; Wang, R

    2015-08-01

    Osteoporosis is a brittle bone disease that can cause fractures mostly in older men and women. Meta-analysis is the statistical method which is applied in the frame work for the assessment of results obtained from various research studies conducted in several years. A meta-analysis of osteoporotic fracture risk with medication non-adherence has been described to assess the bone fracture risk among patients non-adherent versus adherent to therapy for osteoporosis by many researchers. Osteoporosis therapy reduces the risk of fracture in clinical trials, and real-world adherence to therapy which is suboptimal and can reduce the effectiveness of intervention. The methods of Medline, Embase, and CINAHL were literature searched for these observational studies from year 1998 to 2009, and up to 2015. The results of meta-analysis of osteoporosis research on fractures of postmenopausal women and men are presented. The use of bisphosphonate therapy for osteoporosis has been described with other drugs. The authors, design, studies (women %), years (data), follow-up (wks), fractures (types), and compliance or persistence results from years 2004 to 2009 from are shown in a brief table. The meta-analysis studies have been reviewed from other researchers on osteoporosis and fractures, medications and treatments.

  20. Methodology for risk analysis based on atmospheric dispersion modelling from nuclear risk sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.; Rigina, O.

    2003-04-01

    The main purpose of this multidisciplinary study is to develop a methodology for complex nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to test it on example of estimation of nuclear risk to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident at a nuclear risk site (NRS). The main focus of the paper is the methodology for the evaluation of the atmospheric transport and deposition of radioactive pollutants from NRSs. The method developed for this evaluation is derived from a probabilistic point of view. The main question we are trying to answer is: What is the probability for radionuclide atmospheric transport and impact to different neighbouring regions and countries in case of an accident at an NPP? To answer this question we applied a number of different tools: (i) Trajectory Modelling - to calculate multiyear forward trajectories originating over the locations of selected risk sites; (ii) Dispersion Modelling - for long-term simulation and case studies of radionuclide transport from hypothetical accidental releases at NRSs; (iii) Cluster Analysis - to identify atmospheric transport pathways from NRSs; (iv) Probability Fields Analysis - to construct annual, monthly, and seasonal NRS impact indicators to identify the most impacted geographical regions; (v) Specific Case Studies - to estimate consequences for the environment and the populations after a hypothetical accident; (vi) Vulnerability Evaluation to Radioactive Deposition - to describe its persistence in the ecosystems with a focus to the transfer of certain radionuclides into the food chains of key importance for the intake and exposure for a whole population and for certain population groups; (vii) Risk Evaluation and Mapping - to analyse socio-economical consequences for different geographical areas and various population groups taking into account social-geophysical factors and probabilities, and using demographic databases based on GIS analysis.

  1. Risk factors for rape re-victimisation: a retrospective analysis.

    PubMed

    Lurie, S; Boaz, M; Golan, A

    2013-11-01

    Sexual re-victimisation refers to a pattern in which the sexual assault victim has an increased risk of subsequent victimisation relative to an individual who was never victimised. The purpose of our study was to identify risks factors for a second rape, the severest form of sexual re-victimisation. All rape victims treated at the First Regional Israeli Center for Sexual Assault Victims between October 2000 and July 2010 were included in this retrospective analysis. We compared characteristics of 53 rape victims who were victimised twice to those of 1,939 rape victims who were victimised once. We identified several risk factors for a second rape, which can be used in prevention programmes. These are: psychiatric background, history of social services involvement, adulthood, non-virginity and minority ethnicity.

  2. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-09-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional 'Standard I', which has a paternalistic orientation, and 'Standard II', established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being.

  3. Path analysis of risk factors leading to premature birth.

    PubMed

    Fields, S J; Livshits, G; Sirotta, L; Merlob, P

    1996-01-01

    The present study tested whether various sociodemographic, anthropometric, behavioral, and medical/physiological factors act in a direct or indirect manner on the risk of prematurity using path analysis on a sample of Israeli births. The path model shows that medical complications, primarily toxemia, chorioammionitis, and a previous low birth weight delivery directly and significantly act on the risk of prematurity as do low maternal pregnancy weight gain and ethnicity. Other medical complications, including chronic hypertension, preclampsia, and placental abruption, although significantly correlated with prematurity, act indirectly on prematurity through toxemia. The model further shows that the commonly accepted sociodemographic, anthropometric, and behavioral risk factors act by modifying the development of medical complications that lead to prematurity as opposed to having a direct effect on premature delivery. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc. Copyright © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  4. Risk analysis of landslide disaster in Ponorogo, East Java, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koesuma, S.; Saido, A. P.; Fukuda, Y.

    2016-11-01

    Ponorogo is one of regency in South-West of East Java Province, Indonesia, where located in subduction zone between Eurasia and Australia plate tectonics. It has a lot of mountain area which is disaster-prone area for landslide. We have collected landslide data in 305 villages in Ponorogo and make it to be Hazards Index. Then we also calculate Vulnerability Index, Economic Loss index, Environmental Damage Index and Capacity Index. The risk analysis map is composed of three components H (Hazards), V (Vulnerability, Economic Loss index, Environmental Damage Index) and C (Capacity Index). The method is based on regulations of National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB) number 02/2012 and number 03/2012. It has three classes of risk index, i.e. Low, Medium and High. Ponorogo city has a medium landslide risk index.

  5. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards

    PubMed Central

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional ‘Standard I’, which has a paternalistic orientation, and ‘Standard II’, established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being. PMID:27475751

  6. [Risk analysis in radiation therapy: state of the art].

    PubMed

    Mazeron, R; Aguini, N; Deutsch, É

    2013-01-01

    Five radiotherapy accidents, from which two serial, occurred in France from 2003 to 2007, led the authorities to establish a roadmap for securing radiotherapy. By analogy with industrial processes, a technical decision form the French Nuclear Safety Authority in 2008 requires radiotherapy professionals to conduct analyzes of risks to patients. The process of risk analysis had been tested in three pilot centers, before the occurrence of accidents, with the creation of cells feedback. The regulation now requires all radiotherapy services to have similar structures to collect precursor events, incidents and accidents, to perform analyzes following rigorous methods and to initiate corrective actions. At the same time, it is also required to conduct analyzes a priori, less intuitive, and usually require the help of a quality engineer, with the aim of reducing risk. The progressive implementation of these devices is part of an overall policy to improve the quality of radiotherapy. Since 2007, no radiotherapy accident was reported.

  7. Risk assessment and its application to flight safety analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Keese, D.L.; Barton, W.R.

    1989-12-01

    Potentially hazardous test activities have historically been a part of Sandia National Labs mission to design, develop, and test new weapons systems. These test activities include high speed air drops for parachute development, sled tests for component and system level studies, multiple stage rocket experiments, and artillery firings of various projectiles. Due to the nature of Sandia's test programs, the risk associated with these activities can never be totally eliminated. However, a consistent set of policies should be available to provide guidance into the level of risk that is acceptable in these areas. This report presents a general set of guidelines for addressing safety issues related to rocket flight operations at Sandia National Laboratories. Even though the majority of this report deals primarily with rocket flight safety, these same principles could be applied to other hazardous test activities. The basic concepts of risk analysis have a wide range of applications into many of Sandia's current operations. 14 refs., 1 tab.

  8. An Analysis of Discounting Procedures and Risk Analysis Techniques for Use in the Department of Defense.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-12-01

    risky investments by an amount equal to the cost of risk bearing. Thus the true opportunity cost of the private invesments foregone is the value placed...Discount Rate," Water Resources Research, Vol. 5: 947-957 (October 1969). 19. Hertz, David B. "Risk Analysis in Capital Invesement ," Harvard Business Review

  9. Small theories and large risks--is risk analysis relevant for epistemology?

    PubMed

    Cirković, Milan M

    2012-11-01

    Ought we to take seriously large risks predicted by "exotic" or improbable theories? We routinely assess risks on the basis or either common sense, or some developed theoretical framework based on the best available scientific explanations. Recently, there has been a substantial increase of interest in the low-probability "failure modes" of well-established theories, which can involve global catastrophic risks. However, here I wish to discuss a partially antithetical situation: alternative, low-probability ("small") scientific theories predicting catastrophic outcomes with large probability. I argue that there is an important methodological issue (determining what counts as the best available explanation in cases where the theories involved describe possibilities of extremely destructive global catastrophes), which has been neglected thus far. There is no simple answer to the correct method for dealing with high-probability high-stakes risks following from low-probability theories that still cannot be rejected outright, and much further work is required in this area. I further argue that cases like these are more numerous than usually assumed, for reasons including cognitive biases, sociological issues in science and the media image of science. If that is indeed so, it might lead to a greater weight of these cases in areas such as moral deliberation and policy making. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Development of a preliminary framework for informing the risk analysis and risk management of nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Kara

    2005-12-01

    Decisions are often made even when there is uncertainty about the possible outcomes. However, methods for making decisions with uncertainty in the problem framework are scarce. Presently, safety assessment for a product containing engineered nano-scale particles is a very poorly structured problem. Many fields of study may inform the safety assessment of such particles (e.g., ultrafines, aerosols, debris from medical devices), but engineered nano-scale particles may present such unique properties that extrapolating from other types of studies may introduce, and not resolve, uncertainty. Some screening-level health effects studies conducted specifically on engineered nano-scale materials have been published and many more are underway. However, it is clear that the extent of research needed to fully and confidently understand the potential for health or environmental risk from engineered nano-scale particles may take years or even decades to complete. In spite of the great uncertainty, there is existing research and experience among researchers that can help to provide a taxonomy of particle properties, perhaps indicating a relative likelihood of risk, in order to prioritize nanoparticle risk research. To help structure this problem, a framework was developed from expert interviews of nanotechnology researchers. The analysis organizes the information as a system based on the risk assessment framework, in order to support the decision about safety. In the long term, this framework is designed to incorporate research results as they are generated, and therefore serve as a tool for estimating the potential for human health and environmental risk.

  11. Corticosteroids and pediatric septic shock outcomes: a risk stratified analysis.

    PubMed

    Atkinson, Sarah J; Cvijanovich, Natalie Z; Thomas, Neal J; Allen, Geoffrey L; Anas, Nick; Bigham, Michael T; Hall, Mark; Freishtat, Robert J; Sen, Anita; Meyer, Keith; Checchia, Paul A; Shanley, Thomas P; Nowak, Jeffrey; Quasney, Michael; Weiss, Scott L; Banschbach, Sharon; Beckman, Eileen; Howard, Kelli; Frank, Erin; Harmon, Kelli; Lahni, Patrick; Lindsell, Christopher J; Wong, Hector R

    2014-01-01

    The potential benefits of corticosteroids for septic shock may depend on initial mortality risk. We determined associations between corticosteroids and outcomes in children with septic shock who were stratified by initial mortality risk. We conducted a retrospective analysis of an ongoing, multi-center pediatric septic shock clinical and biological database. Using a validated biomarker-based stratification tool (PERSEVERE), 496 subjects were stratified into three initial mortality risk strata (low, intermediate, and high). Subjects receiving corticosteroids during the initial 7 days of admission (n = 252) were compared to subjects who did not receive corticosteroids (n = 244). Logistic regression was used to model the effects of corticosteroids on 28-day mortality and complicated course, defined as death within 28 days or persistence of two or more organ failures at 7 days. Subjects who received corticosteroids had greater organ failure burden, higher illness severity, higher mortality, and a greater requirement for vasoactive medications, compared to subjects who did not receive corticosteroids. PERSEVERE-based mortality risk did not differ between the two groups. For the entire cohort, corticosteroids were associated with increased risk of mortality (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3-4.0, p = 0.004) and a complicated course (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.5, p = 0.012). Within each PERSEVERE-based stratum, corticosteroid administration was not associated with improved outcomes. Similarly, corticosteroid administration was not associated with improved outcomes among patients with no comorbidities, nor in groups of patients stratified by PRISM. Risk stratified analysis failed to demonstrate any benefit from corticosteroids in this pediatric septic shock cohort.

  12. Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.

    2003-01-01

    A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

  13. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

  14. The East Spar development -- Novel subsea production system and control buoy allow optimum, low cost development of this remote field offshore Western Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Campbell, P.F.; Lawlor, C.D.F.; Brown, R.J.; Inglis, A.E.

    1996-12-31

    The remote East Spar gas/condensate field is being developed using a subsea production system operated via an unmanned control buoy. This novel concept has been developed by an Operator-Contractor Alliance in a short time frame with considerable cost savings. This paper outlines the evolution of the development concept, the benefits of the Alliance structure in the evolution process and the novel technologies and systems used on the project. The resulting development concepts have potential application to remote oil and gas fields worldwide.

  15. Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

    2016-09-13

    Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09-1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13-1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias-cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40-5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01-1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors.

  16. Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

    2016-01-01

    Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09–1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13–1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias—cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40–5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01–1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

  17. Risk assessment from automated feature analysis of digitized mammograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byng, Jeffrey W.; Yaffe, Martin J.; Little, L.; Lockwood, G.; Jong, Roberta A.; Fishell, E.; Tritchler, D.; Boyd, Norman F.

    1995-05-01

    The identification of women at increased risk for breast cancer has important implications in both the surveillance for cancer and research into causes of the disease. The parenchymal pattern of the breast, revealed by mammography, and rated subjectively by observer, has been found to provide strong factors of risk for breast cancer. To provide a more quantitative measure of the proportion of mammographically dense tissue in the breast, we have previously described and evaluated an interactive technique in which an observer selects a threshold brightness level to separate dense from fatty tissue in the image. Measurement of mammographic density in this way provides an estimate of relative risk of 4, that is among leading indicators of the risk of developing breast cancer. To remove the variability associated with identification of thresholds by observer, we are investigating an automated threshold prediction based on independent features characterizing mammographic parenchyma. These features are based on regional measurements of image brightness variations (histogram analysis) and texture variations (fractal analysis) within digitized mammographic images. Preliminary results from an investigative model are presented.

  18. An analysis of risk factors for asymptomatic cerebral infarction.

    PubMed

    Shiga, Tomoko; Owada, Kiyoshi; Hoshino, Tatsuo; Nagahara, Hikaru; Shiratori, Keiko

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study is to identify risk factors for asymptomatic cerebral infarction (ACI) in the general Japanese population. A total of 634 subjects (272 men aged 55.4+/-8.8 years and 362 women aged 55.2+/-8.5 years) who visited the Health Management Center at Aoyama Hospital (Tokyo, Japan) from January 2004 through January 2005 for an annual brain dry dock examination were analyzed. We evaluated 21 risk factors for ACI by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Abnormal or potentially abnormal conditions were detected in 258 subjects (40.7% of all subjects who had an annual check-up program for brain disease). The most frequent abnormal finding was ACI, which was observed in 208 subjects. The significant risk factors for ACI, as determined by multivariate logistic analysis, were age (P <0.01), hypertension (P <0.01), and hypertensive vascular changes in the fundus (P <0.05). The hypertensive vascular abnormalities in the fundus might be a risk factor for ACI independent of age and hypertension.

  19. A risk analysis of pulmonary complications following major trauma.

    PubMed

    Hoyt, D B; Simons, R K; Winchell, R J; Cushman, J; Hollingsworth-Fridlund, P; Holbrook, T; Fortlage, D

    1993-10-01

    Varying institutional definitions and degrees of surveillance limit awareness of the true incidence of posttraumatic pulmonary complications. Prospective review with standardized definitions of 25 categories of pulmonary complications was applied to a university level I trauma service over 3 years to establish the true incidence. Potential injury-related predictors of individual complications were determined using multiple logistic regression analysis and adjusted odds ratios were calculated, thereby controlling for the effect of other covariants. Significance was attributed to p < 0.05. Of 3289 patients meeting MTOS criteria, pulmonary complications occurred in 368 (11.2%). Pulmonary complications account for one third of all disease complications. Significant associations with pneumonia included age, the presence of shock on admission, significant head injury, and surgery to the head and chest. Significant risk for atelectasis occurred in patients with blunt injury mechanism, ISS > 16, shock on admission, and severe head injury. Risks for development of respiratory failure included age > 55 years, the mechanism of "pedestrian struck", and the presence of significant head injury. Risk factors for ARDS included surgery to the head and a Trauma Score < 13 on arrival. Significant predictors for pulmonary embolism included ISS > 16, shock on admission, and extremity and pelvis injuries. The true incidence of pulmonary complications is established with this kind of analysis and focuses attention on (1) groups at high risk for developing complications, (2) groups for which current therapeutic modalities are still ineffective, and (3) defining the need to refocus on prospective research rather than ineffective processes of care.

  20. Working session 5: Operational aspects and risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cizelj, L.; Donoghue, J.

    1997-02-01

    A general observation is that both operational aspects and risk analysis cannot be adequately discussed without information presented in other sessions. Some overlap of conclusions and recommendations is therefore to be expected. Further, it was assumed that recommendations concerning improvements in some related topics were generated by other sessions and are not repeated here. These include: (1) Knowledge on degradation mechanisms (initiation, progression, and failure). (2) Modeling of degradation (initiation, progression, and failure). (3) Capabilities of NDE methods. (4) Preventive maintenance and repair. One should note here, however, that all of these directly affect both operational and risk aspects of affected plants. A list of conclusions and recommendations is based on available presentations and discussions addressing risk and operational experience. The authors aimed at reaching as broad a consensus as possible. It should be noted here that there is no strict delineation between operational and safety aspects of degradation of steam generator tubes. This is caused by different risk perceptions in different countries/societies. The conclusions and recommendations were divided into four broad groups: human reliability; leakage monitoring; risk impact; and consequence assessment.

  1. Fire risk analysis: general conceptual framework for describing models.

    PubMed

    Hall, J R; Sekizawa, A

    1991-02-01

    A general conceptual framework has been developed as an aid to discussions of alternative approaches to fire risk analysis. The purpose is to show how each alternative seeks to address a few common concerns. Basic concepts and key elements--notably scenario structures, appropriate probability functions, and security and outcome measures--are defined and discussed, as are types of modeling approaches. A number of diverse examples are then presented using the framework to illustrate its value in making comparisons.

  2. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Odds versus risk

    PubMed Central

    Ranganathan, Priya; Aggarwal, Rakesh; Pramesh, C. S.

    2015-01-01

    In biomedical research, we are often interested in quantifying the relationship between an exposure and an outcome. “Odds” and “Risk” are the most common terms which are used as measures of association between variables. In this article, which is the fourth in the series of common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we explain the meaning of risk and odds and the difference between the two. PMID:26623395

  3. Critical analysis of risk factors for shoulder dystocia.

    PubMed

    Tsur, Avishai; Sergienko, Ruslan; Wiznitzer, Arnon; Zlotnik, Alexander; Sheiner, Eyal

    2012-05-01

    The study was aimed to define trends, risk factors and perinatal outcome associated with shoulder dystocia (SD). A population-based study comparing all singleton deliveries with and without SD was conducted. Statistical analysis was performed using multiple logistic regression analysis. Shoulder dystocia complicated 0.2% (n = 451) of all deliveries included in the study (n = 240,189). The rate of SD declined from 0.4% in 1988 to 0.13% in 2009. Independent risk factors for SD in a multivariable analysis were fetal macrosomia (birth-weight ≥ 4 kg; OR = 16.1; 95% CI 13.2-19.6, P < 0.001), failure of labor to progress during the second stage (OR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.5-3.7, P < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (OR = 1.8; 95% CI 1.4-2.3, P < 0.001) and advanced maternal age (years, OR = 1.02; 95% CI 1.001-1.03, P = 0.029). Perinatal mortality was significantly higher after SD as compared to the comparison group (6.2 vs. 1.4%, P <0.001). Another multivariable analysis, with perinatal mortality as the outcome variable, controlling for confounders such as maternal age, gestational age, diabetes mellitus, etc. was constructed; SD was noted as an independent risk factor for perinatal mortality (adjusted OR = 11.1; 95% CI 7.2-17.1, P < 0.001). Shoulder dystocia, associated with macrosomia, labor dystocia, diabetes mellitus, and advanced maternal age, is an independent risk factor for perinatal mortality. In an era of increased rate of cesarean deliveries, and perhaps increased accuracy of birth weight estimation, the rate of shoulder dystocia gradually declines.

  4. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  5. Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Montibeller, Gilberto; von Winterfeldt, Detlof

    2015-07-01

    Behavioral decision research has demonstrated that judgments and decisions of ordinary people and experts are subject to numerous biases. Decision and risk analysis were designed to improve judgments and decisions and to overcome many of these biases. However, when eliciting model components and parameters from decisionmakers or experts, analysts often face the very biases they are trying to help overcome. When these inputs are biased they can seriously reduce the quality of the model and resulting analysis. Some of these biases are due to faulty cognitive processes; some are due to motivations for preferred analysis outcomes. This article identifies the cognitive and motivational biases that are relevant for decision and risk analysis because they can distort analysis inputs and are difficult to correct. We also review and provide guidance about the existing debiasing techniques to overcome these biases. In addition, we describe some biases that are less relevant because they can be corrected by using logic or decomposing the elicitation task. We conclude the article with an agenda for future research.

  6. Global Human Settlement Analysis for Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pesaresi, M.; Ehrlich, D.; Ferri, S.; Florczyk, A.; Freire, S.; Haag, F.; Halkia, M.; Julea, A. M.; Kemper, T.; Soille, P.

    2015-04-01

    The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) is supported by the European Commission, Joint Research Center (JRC) in the frame of his institutional research activities. Scope of GHSL is developing, testing and applying the technologies and analysis methods integrated in the JRC Global Human Settlement analysis platform for applications in support to global disaster risk reduction initiatives (DRR) and regional analysis in the frame of the European Cohesion policy. GHSL analysis platform uses geo-spatial data, primarily remotely sensed and population. GHSL also cooperates with the Group on Earth Observation on SB-04-Global Urban Observation and Information, and various international partners andWorld Bank and United Nations agencies. Some preliminary results integrating global human settlement information extracted from Landsat data records of the last 40 years and population data are presented.

  7. Lifetime risks of kidney donation: a medical decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Kiberd, Bryce A; Tennankore, Karthik K

    2017-09-01

    This study estimated the potential loss of life and the lifetime cumulative risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) from live kidney donation. Markov medical decision analysis. USA. 40-year-old live kidney donors of both sexes and black/white race. Live donor nephrectomy. Potential remaining life years lost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost and added lifetime cumulative risk of ESRD from donation. Overall 0.532-0.884 remaining life years were lost from donating a kidney. This was equivalent to 1.20%-2.34% of remaining life years (or 0.76%-1.51% remaining QALYs). The risk was higher in male and black individuals. The study showed that 1%-5% of average-age current live kidney donors might develop ESRD as a result of nephrectomy. The added risk of ESRD resulted in a loss of only 0.126-0.344 remaining life years. Most of the loss of life was predicted to be associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) not ESRD. Most events occurred 25 or more years after donation. Reducing the increased risk of death associated with CKD had a modest overall effect on the per cent loss of remaining life years (0.72%-1.9%) and QALYs (0.58%-1.33%). Smoking and obesity reduced life expectancy and increased overall lifetime risks of ESRD in non-donors. However the percentage loss of remaining life years from donation was not very different in those with or without these risk factors. Live kidney donation may reduce life expectancy by 0.5-1 year in most donors. The development of ESRD in donors may not be the only measure of risk as most of the predicted loss of life predates ESRD. The study identifies the potential importance of following donors and treating risk factors aggressively to prevent ESRD and to improve donor survival. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  8. Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

    PubMed

    Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

    2017-09-01

    While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Design, analysis, and fabrication of the technology integration box beam

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Griffin, C. F.; Meade, L. E.

    1991-01-01

    Numerous design concepts, materials, and manufacturing methods were investigated analytically and empirically for the covers and spars of a transport wing box. This information was applied to the design, analysis, and fabrication of a full-scale section of a transport wing box. A blade-stiffened design was selected for the upper and lower covers of the box. These covers have been constructed using three styles of AS4/974 prepreg fabrics. The front and rear T-stiffened channel spars were filament wound using AS4/1806 towpreg. Covers, ribs, and spars were assembled using mechanical fasteners. When they are completed later this year, the tests on the technology integration box beam will demonstrate the structural integrity of an advanced composite wing design which is 25 percent lighter than the metal baseline.

  10. Application of Risk Analysis in the Acquisition of Major Weapon Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-08-01

    An implementation of a statistical approach to cost risk analysis is developed in this paper. A general discussion of risk analysis is presented to...familiarize the price analysis with the concepts involved and then forms are presented which allow for the implementation of risk analysis . Appropriate...definitions are given along with a step-by-step procedure. The results of the risk analysis are related to the effect of incentive contracts and several examples are presented. (Author)

  11. Practical, transparent prospective risk analysis for the clinical laboratory.

    PubMed

    Janssens, Pim Mw

    2014-11-01

    Prospective risk analysis (PRA) is an essential element in quality assurance for clinical laboratories. Practical approaches to conducting PRA in laboratories, however, are scarce. On the basis of the classical Failure Mode and Effect Analysis method, an approach to PRA was developed for application to key laboratory processes. First, the separate, major steps of the process under investigation are identified. Scores are then given for the Probability (P) and Consequence (C) of predefined types of failures and the chances of Detecting (D) these failures. Based on the P and C scores (on a 10-point scale), an overall Risk score (R) is calculated. The scores for each process were recorded in a matrix table. Based on predetermined criteria for R and D, it was determined whether a more detailed analysis was required for potential failures and, ultimately, where risk-reducing measures were necessary, if any. As an illustration, this paper presents the results of the application of PRA to our pre-analytical and analytical activities. The highest R scores were obtained in the stat processes, the most common failure type in the collective process steps was 'delayed processing or analysis', the failure type with the highest mean R score was 'inappropriate analysis' and the failure type most frequently rated as suboptimal was 'identification error'. The PRA designed is a useful semi-objective tool to identify process steps with potential failures rated as risky. Its systematic design and convenient output in matrix tables makes it easy to perform, practical and transparent. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  12. Analysis of risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula following pancreaticoduodenectomy.

    PubMed

    Liu, Qi-Yu; Zhang, Wen-Zhi; Xia, Hong-Tian; Leng, Jian-Jun; Wan, Tao; Liang, Bin; Yang, Tao; Dong, Jia-Hong

    2014-12-14

    To explore the morbidity and risk factors of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following pancreaticoduodenectomy. The data from 196 consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy, performed by different surgeons, in the General Hospital of the People's Liberation Army between January 1(st), 2013 and December 31(st), 2013 were retrospectively collected for analysis. The diagnoses of POPF and clinically relevant (CR)-POPF following pancreaticoduodenectomy were judged strictly by the International Study Group on Pancreatic Fistula Definition. Univariate analysis was performed to analyze the following factors: patient age, sex, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes mellitus, serum CA19-9 level, history of jaundice, serum albumin level, blood loss volume, pancreatic duct diameter, pylorus preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy, pancreatic drainage and pancreaticojejunostomy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the main independent risk factors for POPF. POPF occurred in 126 (64.3%) of the patients, and the incidence of CR-POPF was 32.7% (64/196). Patient characteristics of age, sex, BMI, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, serum CA19-9 level, history of jaundice, serum albumin level, blood loss volume, pylorus preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy and pancreaticojejunostomy showed no statistical difference related to the morbidity of POPF or CR-POPF. Pancreatic duct diameter was found to be significantly correlated with POPF rates by univariate analysis and multivariate regression analysis, with a pancreatic duct diameter ≤ 3 mm being an independent risk factor for POPF (OR = 0.291; P = 0.000) and CR-POPF (OR = 0.399; P = 0.004). The CR-POPF rate was higher in patients without external pancreatic stenting, which was found to be an independent risk factor for CR-POPF (OR = 0.394; P = 0.012). Among the entire patient series, there were three postoperative deaths, giving a total mortality rate of 1.5% (3/196), and the mortality

  13. Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: Modeling Individual Steps of a Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

    2004-06-01

    The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated risks to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems modeling software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental models for similar risk assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a risk assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate and transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.

  14. Sensitivity analysis of a two-dimensional probabilistic risk assessment model using analysis of variance.

    PubMed

    Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Frey, H Christopher

    2005-12-01

    This article demonstrates application of sensitivity analysis to risk assessment models with two-dimensional probabilistic frameworks that distinguish between variability and uncertainty. A microbial food safety process risk (MFSPR) model is used as a test bed. The process of identifying key controllable inputs and key sources of uncertainty using sensitivity analysis is challenged by typical characteristics of MFSPR models such as nonlinearity, thresholds, interactions, and categorical inputs. Among many available sensitivity analysis methods, analysis of variance (ANOVA) is evaluated in comparison to commonly used methods based on correlation coefficients. In a two-dimensional risk model, the identification of key controllable inputs that can be prioritized with respect to risk management is confounded by uncertainty. However, as shown here, ANOVA provided robust insights regarding controllable inputs most likely to lead to effective risk reduction despite uncertainty. ANOVA appropriately selected the top six important inputs, while correlation-based methods provided misleading insights. Bootstrap simulation is used to quantify uncertainty in ranks of inputs due to sampling error. For the selected sample size, differences in F values of 60% or more were associated with clear differences in rank order between inputs. Sensitivity analysis results identified inputs related to the storage of ground beef servings at home as the most important. Risk management recommendations are suggested in the form of a consumer advisory for better handling and storage practices.

  15. Nurses' critical event risk assessments: a judgement analysis.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Carl; Bucknall, Tracey; Estabrookes, Carole A; Hutchinson, Alison; Fraser, Kim; de Vos, Rien; Binnecade, Jan; Barrat, Gez; Saunders, Jane

    2009-02-01

    To explore and explain nurses' use of readily available clinical information when deciding whether a patient is at risk of a critical event. Half of inpatients who suffer a cardiac arrest have documented but unacted upon clinical signs of deterioration in the 24 hours prior to the event. Nurses appear to be both misinterpreting and mismanaging the nursing-knowledge 'basics' such as heart rate, respiratory rate and oxygenation. Whilst many medical interventions originate from nurses, up to 26% of nurses' responses to abnormal signs result in delays of between one and three hours. A double system judgement analysis using Brunswik's lens model of cognition was undertaken with 245 Dutch, UK, Canadian and Australian acute care nurses. Nurses were asked to judge the likelihood of a critical event, 'at-risk' status, and whether they would intervene in response to 50 computer-presented clinical scenarios in which data on heart rate, systolic blood pressure, urine output, oxygen saturation, conscious level and oxygenation support were varied. Nurses were also presented with a protocol recommendation and also placed under time pressure for some of the scenarios. The ecological criterion was the predicted level of risk from the Modified Early Warning Score assessments of 232 UK acute care inpatients. Despite receiving identical information, nurses varied considerably in their risk assessments. The differences can be partly explained by variability in weightings given to information. Time and protocol recommendations were given more weighting than clinical information for key dichotomous choices such as classifying a patient as 'at risk' and deciding to intervene. Nurses' weighting of cues did not mirror the same information's contribution to risk in real patients. Nurses synthesized information in non-linear ways that contributed little to decisional accuracy. The low-moderate achievement (R(a)) statistics suggests that nurses' assessments of risk were largely inaccurate

  16. Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thigpen, Eric B.; Stewart, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Fougere, Pete

    2017-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

  17. Cascade vulnerability for risk analysis of water infrastructure.

    PubMed

    Sitzenfrei, R; Mair, M; Möderl, M; Rauch, W

    2011-01-01

    One of the major tasks in urban water management is failure-free operation for at least most of the time. Accordingly, the reliability of the network systems in urban water management has a crucial role. The failure of a component in these systems impacts potable water distribution and urban drainage. Therefore, water distribution and urban drainage systems are categorized as critical infrastructure. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is likely to experience harm induced by perturbation or stress. However, for risk assessment, we usually assume that events and failures are singular and independent, i.e. several simultaneous events and cascading events are unconsidered. Although failures can be causally linked, a simultaneous consideration in risk analysis is hardly considered. To close this gap, this work introduces the term cascade vulnerability for water infrastructure. Cascade vulnerability accounts for cascading and simultaneous events. Following this definition, cascade risk maps are a merger of hazard and cascade vulnerability maps. In this work cascade vulnerability maps for water distribution systems and urban drainage systems based on the 'Achilles-Approach' are introduced and discussed. It is shown, that neglecting cascading effects results in significant underestimation of risk scenarios.

  18. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    PubMed

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009.

  19. [Analysis of risk factors for perinatal brachial plexus palsy].

    PubMed

    Gosk, Jerzy; Rutowski, Roman

    2005-04-01

    Risk factors of obstetrical brachial plexus palsy include: (1) large birth weight, (2) shoulder dystocia and prolonged second stage of labour, (3) instrumental vaginal delivery (forceps delivery, vacuum extraction), (4) diabetes mellitus and mother's obesity, (5) breech presentation, (6) delivery and infant with obstetrical brachial plexus palsy in antecedent delivery. The purpose was analysis of the classical risk factors for brachial plexus palsy based on our own clinical material. Clinical material consists of 83 children with obstetrical brachial plexus palsy treated at the Department of Trauma and Hand Surgery (surgically--54, conservatively--29). Control group consists of 56 healthy newborns. Data recorded included: birth weight, body length, head and chest circumference, Apgar test at 1 min., type of brachial palsy and side affected, type of birth, presentation, duration of delivery (II stage), age of mother, mother's diseases, parity. The infants treated surgically have had a significantly higher birth weight, body height, head and chest circumference, in compression with control group and group treated conservatively. The differences were statistically important. Shoulder dystocia occurred in 32.9% of all vaginal delivery. Instrumental vaginal delivery was observed in 11.3% and breech presentation in 4.9% cases. There were no incidences of obstetrical brachial plexus palsy recurrence. Diabetes mellitus and mother's obesity was found in 3 cases. (1) Fetal macrosomia is the important risk factor of the obstetrical brachial plexus palsy. (2) Obstetrical brachial plexus palsy may occur also in the absence of the classical risk factors.

  20. Evaluation of the SPAR thermal analyzer on the CYBER-203 computer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, J. C.; Riley, K. M.; Haftka, R. T.

    1982-01-01

    The use of the CYBER 203 vector computer for thermal analysis is investigated. Strengths of the CYBER 203 include the ability to perform, in vector mode using a 64 bit word, 50 million floating point operations per second (MFLOPS) for addition and subtraction, 25 MFLOPS for multiplication and 12.5 MFLOPS for division. The speed of scalar operation is comparable to that of a CDC 7600 and is some 2 to 3 times faster than Langley's CYBER 175s. The CYBER 203 has 1,048,576 64-bit words of real memory with an 80 nanosecond (nsec) access time. Memory is bit addressable and provides single error correction, double error detection (SECDED) capability. The virtual memory capability handles data in either 512 or 65,536 word pages. The machine has 256 registers with a 40 nsec access time. The weaknesses of the CYBER 203 include the amount of vector operation overhead and some data storage limitations. In vector operations there is a considerable amount of time before a single result is produced so that vector calculation speed is slower than scalar operation for short vectors.

  1. Finite-element reentry heat-transfer analysis of space shuttle Orbiter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Quinn, Robert D.; Gong, Leslie

    1986-01-01

    A structural performance and resizing (SPAR) finite-element thermal analysis computer program was used in the heat-transfer analysis of the space shuttle orbiter subjected to reentry aerodynamic heating. Three wing cross sections and one midfuselage cross section were selected for the thermal analysis. The predicted thermal protection system temperatures were found to agree well with flight-measured temperatures. The calculated aluminum structural temperatures also agreed reasonably well with the flight data from reentry to touchdown. The effects of internal radiation and of internal convection were found to be significant. The SPAR finite-element solutions agreed reasonably well with those obtained from the conventional finite-difference method.

  2. An Improved Gaussian Mixture Model for Damage Propagation Monitoring of an Aircraft Wing Spar under Changing Structural Boundary Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Fang, Fang

    2016-01-01

    Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) technology is considered to be a key technology to reduce the maintenance cost and meanwhile ensure the operational safety of aircraft structures. It has gradually developed from theoretic and fundamental research to real-world engineering applications in recent decades. The problem of reliable damage monitoring under time-varying conditions is a main issue for the aerospace engineering applications of SHM technology. Among the existing SHM methods, Guided Wave (GW) and piezoelectric sensor-based SHM technique is a promising method due to its high damage sensitivity and long monitoring range. Nevertheless the reliability problem should be addressed. Several methods including environmental parameter compensation, baseline signal dependency reduction and data normalization, have been well studied but limitations remain. This paper proposes a damage propagation monitoring method based on an improved Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). It can be used on-line without any structural mechanical model and a priori knowledge of damage and time-varying conditions. With this method, a baseline GMM is constructed first based on the GW features obtained under time-varying conditions when the structure under monitoring is in the healthy state. When a new GW feature is obtained during the on-line damage monitoring process, the GMM can be updated by an adaptive migration mechanism including dynamic learning and Gaussian components split-merge. The mixture probability distribution structure of the GMM and the number of Gaussian components can be optimized adaptively. Then an on-line GMM can be obtained. Finally, a best match based Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is studied to measure the migration degree between the baseline GMM and the on-line GMM to reveal the weak cumulative changes of the damage propagation mixed in the time-varying influence. A wing spar of an aircraft is used to validate the proposed method. The results indicate that the crack

  3. An Improved Gaussian Mixture Model for Damage Propagation Monitoring of an Aircraft Wing Spar under Changing Structural Boundary Conditions.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Fang, Fang

    2016-02-26

    Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) technology is considered to be a key technology to reduce the maintenance cost and meanwhile ensure the operational safety of aircraft structures. It has gradually developed from theoretic and fundamental research to real-world engineering applications in recent decades. The problem of reliable damage monitoring under time-varying conditions is a main issue for the aerospace engineering applications of SHM technology. Among the existing SHM methods, Guided Wave (GW) and piezoelectric sensor-based SHM technique is a promising method due to its high damage sensitivity and long monitoring range. Nevertheless the reliability problem should be addressed. Several methods including environmental parameter compensation, baseline signal dependency reduction and data normalization, have been well studied but limitations remain. This paper proposes a damage propagation monitoring method based on an improved Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). It can be used on-line without any structural mechanical model and a priori knowledge of damage and time-varying conditions. With this method, a baseline GMM is constructed first based on the GW features obtained under time-varying conditions when the structure under monitoring is in the healthy state. When a new GW feature is obtained during the on-line damage monitoring process, the GMM can be updated by an adaptive migration mechanism including dynamic learning and Gaussian components split-merge. The mixture probability distribution structure of the GMM and the number of Gaussian components can be optimized adaptively. Then an on-line GMM can be obtained. Finally, a best match based Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is studied to measure the migration degree between the baseline GMM and the on-line GMM to reveal the weak cumulative changes of the damage propagation mixed in the time-varying influence. A wing spar of an aircraft is used to validate the proposed method. The results indicate that the crack

  4. Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

    2017-04-01

    Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

  5. A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas.

    PubMed

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub; Kujala, Pentti

    2015-06-01

    Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the most typical accident in ice navigation and general cargo the type of vessel most frequently involved in these accidents. Consolidated ice, ice ridges and ice thickness between 15 and 40cm represent the most common ice conditions in which accidents occur. Thus, the analysis presented in this article establishes the key elements for identifying the operation types which would benefit most from further safety engineering and safety or risk management development.

  6. Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Möderl, Michael; Rauch, Wolfgang

    2011-12-01

    The presented spatial risk assessment method allows for managing critical network infrastructure in urban areas under abnormal and future conditions caused e.g., by terrorist attacks, infrastructure deterioration or climate change. For the spatial risk assessment, vulnerability maps for critical network infrastructure are merged with hazard maps for an interfering process. Vulnerability maps are generated using a spatial sensitivity analysis of network transport models to evaluate performance decrease under investigated thread scenarios. Thereby parameters are varied according to the specific impact of a particular threat scenario. Hazard maps are generated with a geographical information system using raster data of the same threat scenario derived from structured interviews and cluster analysis of events in the past. The application of the spatial risk assessment is exemplified by means of a case study for a water supply system, but the principal concept is applicable likewise to other critical network infrastructure. The aim of the approach is to help decision makers in choosing zones for preventive measures.

  7. Risk-management and risk-analysis-based decision tools for attacks on electric power.

    PubMed

    Simonoff, Jeffrey S; Restrepo, Carlos E; Zimmerman, Rae

    2007-06-01

    Incident data about disruptions to the electric power grid provide useful information that can be used as inputs into risk management policies in the energy sector for disruptions from a variety of origins, including terrorist attacks. This article uses data from the Disturbance Analysis Working Group (DAWG) database, which is maintained by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), to look at incidents over time in the United States and Canada for the period 1990-2004. Negative binomial regression, logistic regression, and weighted least squares regression are used to gain a better understanding of how these disturbances varied over time and by season during this period, and to analyze how characteristics such as number of customers lost and outage duration are related to different characteristics of the outages. The results of the models can be used as inputs to construct various scenarios to estimate potential outcomes of electric power outages, encompassing the risks, consequences, and costs of such outages.

  8. Petri net modeling of fault analysis for probabilistic risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Andrew

    Fault trees and event trees have been widely accepted as the modeling strategy to perform Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). However, there are several limitations associated with fault tree/event tree modeling. These include 1. It only considers binary events; 2. It assumes independence among basic events; and 3. It does not consider timing sequence of basic events. This thesis investigates Petri net modeling as a potential alternative for PRA modeling. Petri nets have mainly been used as a simulation tool for queuing and network systems. However, it has been suggested that they could also model failure scenarios, and thus could be a potential modeling strategy for PRA. In this thesis, the transformations required to model logic gates in a fault tree by Petri nets are explored. The gap between fault tree analysis and Petri net analysis is bridged through gate equivalency analysis. Methods for qualitative and quantitative analysis for Petri nets are presented. Techniques are developed and implemented to revise and tailor traditional Petri net modeling for system failure analysis. The airlock system and the maintenance cooling system of a CANada Deuterium Uranium (CANDU) reactor are used as case studies to demonstrate Petri nets ability to model system failure and provide a structured approach for qualitative and quantitative analysis. The minimal cutsets and the probability of the airlock system failing to maintain the pressure boundary are obtained. Furthermore, the case study is extended to non-coherent system analysis due to system maintenance.

  9. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to...

  10. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to...

  11. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to...

  12. Systemic Risk and Complex Systems: A Graph-Theory Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lautier, Delphine; Raynaud, Franck

    This chapter summarizes several empirical studies in finance, undertaken through the prism of the graph theory. In these studies, we built graphs in order to investigate integration and systemic risk in derivative markets. Several classes of underlying assets (i.e. energy products, metals, financial assets, agricultural products) are considered, on a twelve-year period. In such a high dimensional analysis, the graph theory enables us to understand the dynamic behavior of our price system. The dimension of the fully connected graph being high, we rely on a specific type of graphs: Minimum Spanning Trees (MSTs). Such a tree is especially interesting for the study of systemic risk: it can be assimilated into the shortest and most probable path for the propagation of a price shock. We first examine the topology of the MSTs. Then, given the time dependency of our correlation-based graphs, we study their evolution over time and their stability.

  13. [Risk Factor Analysis of Pneumonia after Cardiovascular Surgery].

    PubMed

    Maekawa, Yoshiyuki; Abe, Shuichi; Nakamura, Ken; Uchida, Tetsuro; Sadahiro, Mitsuaki; Morikane, Keita

    2016-08-01

    Pneumonia is a major and life-threatening complication after cardiovascular surgery. The objective of our study was to describe epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and risk factors of pneumonia after cardiovascular surgery. From January 2007 to December 2011, 511 consecutive patients (age 67.3±11.9;336 men, 175 women) were enrolled in this study. Pneumonia was diagnosed according to Centers of Disease Control and Prevention surveillance criteria for healthcare associated infection. Data collection included preoperative, intraoperative, and post-operative variables. The overall incidence of pneumonia was 72 cases(14.0%). The mortality in pneumonia group was significantly higher than that in non-pneumonia group (16.6% vs 4.3%, Odds ratio 4.4 p<0.001). Multi-logistic analysis revealed that elderly patient, preoperative congestive heart failure, preoperative hemodialysis, and operation of the thoracic aorta were independent risk factors for pneumonia after cardiovascular surgery.

  14. Oil-spill risk analysis: Beaufort Sea outer continental shelf lease sale 170. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, C.M.; Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.; Lear, E.M.

    1997-02-01

    This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis conducted for OCS Lease Sale 170, Beaufort Sea. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative risks associated with oil and gas production for the proposed lease sale.

  15. [Risk factors analysis of cardiovascular diseases. Is the Life Style Assessment useful?].

    PubMed

    Bye, A

    1997-08-10

    The Norwegian Medical Association's Health Control Handbook (1993) has introduced a lifestyle risk analysis-a paper-based way of assessing risk factors for cardiovascular disease and transferring them into pedagogic risk scores. By using the lifestyle risk analysis in our data based risk profile system LIVDA, we compared and evaluated the two systems through 437 consultations at our Occupational Health Clinic. The lifestyle risk analysis is a pedagogic tool, as compared with the unsystematic clinical information recorded in journals. We found only small differences between the lifestyle risk analysis and LIVDA, except when assessing total cholesterol and physical exercise. Lifestyle risk analysis does not, however, allow categorisation of risk factor values without adjustments, and does not include all relevant risk factors. Further, there are no possibilities of measuring motivation, or for selecting patients for group intervention.

  16. Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2017-02-01

    Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks imposes additional challenges for clinical investigators in that hazard function (the rate) has no one-to-one link to the cumulative incidence function (CIF, the risk). CIF is of particular interest and can be estimated non-parametrically with the use cuminc() function. This function also allows for group comparison and visualization of estimated CIF. The effect of covariates on cause-specific hazard can be explored using conventional Cox proportional hazard model by treating competing events as censoring. However, the effect on hazard cannot be directly linked to the effect on CIF because there is no one-to-one correspondence between hazard and cumulative incidence. Fine-Gray model directly models the covariate effect on CIF and it reports subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR). However, SHR only provide information on the ordering of CIF curves at different levels of covariates, it has no practical interpretation as HR in the absence of competing risks. Fine-Gray model can be fit with crr() function shipped with the cmprsk package. Time-varying covariates are allowed in the crr() function, which is specified by cov2 and tf arguments. Predictions and visualization of CIF for subjects with given covariate values are allowed for crr object. Alternatively, competing risk models can be fit with riskRegression package by employing different link functions between covariates and outcomes. The assumption of proportionality can be checked by testing statistical significance of interaction terms involving failure time. Schoenfeld residuals provide another way to check model assumption.

  17. Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks imposes additional challenges for clinical investigators in that hazard function (the rate) has no one-to-one link to the cumulative incidence function (CIF, the risk). CIF is of particular interest and can be estimated non-parametrically with the use cuminc() function. This function also allows for group comparison and visualization of estimated CIF. The effect of covariates on cause-specific hazard can be explored using conventional Cox proportional hazard model by treating competing events as censoring. However, the effect on hazard cannot be directly linked to the effect on CIF because there is no one-to-one correspondence between hazard and cumulative incidence. Fine-Gray model directly models the covariate effect on CIF and it reports subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR). However, SHR only provide information on the ordering of CIF curves at different levels of covariates, it has no practical interpretation as HR in the absence of competing risks. Fine-Gray model can be fit with crr() function shipped with the cmprsk package. Time-varying covariates are allowed in the crr() function, which is specified by cov2 and tf arguments. Predictions and visualization of CIF for subjects with given covariate values are allowed for crr object. Alternatively, competing risk models can be fit with riskRegression package by employing different link functions between covariates and outcomes. The assumption of proportionality can be checked by testing statistical significance of interaction terms involving failure time. Schoenfeld residuals provide another way to check model assumption. PMID:28251126

  18. Dietary Fat Intake and Lung Cancer Risk: A Pooled Analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jae Jeong; Yu, Danxia; Takata, Yumie; Smith-Warner, Stephanie A; Blot, William; White, Emily; Robien, Kim; Park, Yikyung; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Sinha, Rashmi; Lazovich, DeAnn; Stampfer, Meir; Tumino, Rosario; Aune, Dagfinn; Overvad, Kim; Liao, Linda; Zhang, Xuehong; Gao, Yu-Tang; Johansson, Mattias; Willett, Walter; Zheng, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou

    2017-09-10

    Purpose Dietary fat may play a role in lung carcinogenesis. Findings from epidemiologic studies, however, remain inconsistent. In this pooled analysis of 10 prospective cohort studies from the United States, Europe, and Asia, we evaluated the associations of total and specific types of dietary fat with lung cancer risk. Methods Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs in each cohort. Study-specific risk estimates were pooled by random- or fixed-effects meta-analysis. The first 2 years of follow-up were excluded to address potential influence of preclinical dietary changes. Results Among 1,445,850 participants, 18,822 incident cases were identified (mean follow-up, 9.4 years). High intakes of total and saturated fat were associated with an increased risk of lung cancer (for highest v lowest quintile: HR, 1.07 and 1.14, respectively; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.15 and 1.07 to 1.22, respectively; P for trend for both < .001). The positive association of saturated fat was more evident among current smokers (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.35; P for trend < .001) than former/never smokers ( P for interaction = .004), and for squamous cell and small cell carcinoma (HR, 1.61 and 1.40, respectively; 95% CI, 1.38 to 1.88 and 1.17 to 1.67, respectively; P for trend for both < .001) than other histologic types ( P for heterogeneity < .001). In contrast, a high intake of polyunsaturated fat was associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.98 for highest v lowest quintile; P for trend = .02). A 5% energy substitution of saturated fat with polyunsaturated fat was associated with a 16% to 17% lower risk of small cell and squamous cell carcinoma. No associations were found for monounsaturated fat. Conclusion Findings from this large, international cohort consortium suggest that modifying dietary fat intake (ie, replacing saturated fat with polyunsaturated fat) may reduce lung cancer risk, particularly among smokers and for squamous cell

  19. LAVA (Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology): A conceptual framework for automated risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.; Phillips, J.R.; Tisinger, R.M.; Brown, D.C.; FitzGerald, P.D.

    1986-01-01

    At Los Alamos National Laboratory, we have developed an original methodology for performing risk analyses on subject systems characterized by a general set of asset categories, a general spectrum of threats, a definable system-specific set of safeguards protecting the assets from the threats, and a general set of outcomes resulting from threats exploiting weaknesses in the safeguards system. The Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology (LAVA) models complex systems having large amounts of ''soft'' information about both the system itself and occurrences related to the system. Its structure lends itself well to automation on a portable computer, making it possible to analyze numerous similar but geographically separated installations consistently and in as much depth as the subject system warrants. LAVA is based on hierarchical systems theory, event trees, fuzzy sets, natural-language processing, decision theory, and utility theory. LAVA's framework is a hierarchical set of fuzzy event trees that relate the results of several embedded (or sub-) analyses: a vulnerability assessment providing information about the presence and efficacy of system safeguards, a threat analysis providing information about static (background) and dynamic (changing) threat components coupled with an analysis of asset ''attractiveness'' to the dynamic threat, and a consequence analysis providing information about the outcome spectrum's severity measures and impact values. By using LAVA, we have modeled our widely used computer security application as well as LAVA/CS systems for physical protection, transborder data flow, contract awards, and property management. It is presently being applied for modeling risk management in embedded systems, survivability systems, and weapons systems security. LAVA is especially effective in modeling subject systems that include a large human component.

  20. Risk analysis and the law: international law, the World Trade Organization, Codex Alimentarius and national legislation.

    PubMed

    Horton, L R

    2001-12-01

    This paper discusses the place of risk analysis in international trade from a US perspective, through looking at the activities of the World Trade Organization and the Codex Alimentarius Commission. After examining what the trade agreements say about risk analysis and how international bodies are advancing and using risk analysis, the paper goes on to assess how risk analysis is used at a national level. Finally, recommendations are made for strengthening international food safety initiatives.