Analysis of Cytoskeletal and Motility Proteins in the Sea Urchin Genome Assembly

PubMed Central

RL, Morris; MP, Hoffman; RA, Obar; SS, McCafferty; IR, Gibbons; AD, Leone; J, Cool; EL, Allgood; AM, Musante; KM, Judkins; BJ, Rossetti; AP, Rawson; DR, Burgess

2007-01-01

The sea urchin embryo is a classical model system for studying the role of the cytoskeleton in such events as fertilization, mitosis, cleavage, cell migration and gastrulation. We have conducted an analysis of gene models derived from the Strongylocentrotus purpuratus genome assembly and have gathered strong evidence for the existence of multiple gene families encoding cytoskeletal proteins and their regulators in sea urchin. While many cytoskeletal genes have been cloned from sea urchin with sequences already existing in public databases, genome analysis reveals a significantly higher degree of diversity within certain gene families. Furthermore, genes are described corresponding to homologs of cytoskeletal proteins not previously documented in sea urchins. To illustrate the varying degree of sequence diversity that exists within cytoskeletal gene families, we conducted an analysis of genes encoding actins, specific actin-binding proteins, myosins, tubulins, kinesins, dyneins, specific microtubule-associated proteins, and intermediate filaments. We conducted ontological analysis of select genes to better understand the relatedness of urchin cytoskeletal genes to those of other deuterostomes. We analyzed developmental expression (EST) data to confirm the existence of select gene models and to understand their differential expression during various stages of early development. PMID:17027957

Correlation Analysis of Experimental Remote-Sensing Data and Models of Microwave Rough Sea-Surface Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazonov, D. S.

2017-12-01

A correlation analysis of the model calculations and experimental measurements of wind-speed sensitivity of a rough sea-surface microwave emission at a frequency of 37.5 GHz are presented. The field data used in the research were collected over 3 years in the summer and autumn periods at the oceanographic platform of the Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). A hypothesis about a significant correlation between the model calculations and experimentally measured sea-surface emission ability caused by wind forcing was formulated and tested to reveal this correlation. An evaluation of the discrepancy between the model and experimental data has been performed by an analysis of residuals. Our studies have shown that among the selected models not a single one adequately describes the experimental data.

Process evaluation of sea salt aerosol concentrations at remote marine locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Struthers, H.; Ekman, A. M.; Nilsson, E. D.

2011-12-01

Sea salt, an important natural aerosol, is generated by bubbles bursting at the surface of the ocean. Sea salt aerosol contributes significantly to the global aerosol burden and radiative budget and are a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in remote marine areas (Monahan et al., 1986). Consequently, changes in marine aerosol abundance is expected to impact on climate forcing. Estimates of the atmospheric burden of sea salt aerosol mass derived from chemical transport and global climate models vary greatly both in the global total and the spatial distribution (Texor et al. 2006). This large uncertainty in the sea salt aerosol distribution in turn contributes to the large uncertainty in the current estimates of anthropogenic aerosol climate forcing (IPCC, 2007). To correctly attribute anthropogenic climate change and to veraciously project future climate, natural aerosols including sea salt must be understood and accurately modelled. In addition, the physical processes that determine the sea salt aerosol concentration are susceptible to modification due to climate change (Carslaw et al., 2010) which means there is the potential for feedbacks within the climate/aerosol system. Given the large uncertainties in sea salt aerosol modelling, there is an urgent need to evaluate the process description of sea salt aerosols in global models. An extremely valuable source of data for model evaluation is the long term measurements of PM10 sea salt aerosol mass available from a number of remote marine observation sites around the globe (including the GAW network). Sea salt aerosol concentrations at remote marine locations depend strongly on the surface exchange (emission and deposition) as well as entrainment or detrainment to the free troposphere. This suggests that the key parameters to consider in any analysis include the sea surface water temperature, wind speed, precipitation rate and the atmospheric stability. In this study, the sea salt aerosol observations are analysed to quantify the key sensitivities of the processes connecting the physical drivers of sea salt aerosol to the mass tendency. The analysis employs a semi-empirical model based on the time-tendency of the aerosol mass. This approach of focusing on the time-tendency of the sea salt aerosol concentration provides a framework for the process evaluation of sea salt aerosol concentrations in global models. The same analysis methodology can be applied to output from global models. A process of comparing the sensitivity parameters derived from observations and models will reveal model inadequacies and thus guide model improvements. Carslaw, K. S., Boucher, O., Spracklen, D. V., Mann G. W., Rae, J. G. L, Woodward, S., Kulmala, M. (2010). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 1701-1737 IPCC (2007). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., D. Monahan, E. C., Spiel, D. E., Davidson, K. L. (1986) Oceanic Whitecaps ed. Monahan E. C. & MacNiochaill, D. Reidel, Norwell, Mass. Texor, C., et al. (2006) Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 1777-1813.

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

DOE PAGES

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; ...

2016-04-01

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

Investigation Hydrometeorological Regime of the White Sea Based on Satellite Altimetry Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebedev, Sergey A.

2016-08-01

The White Sea are the seas of the Arctic Ocean. Today complicated hydrodynamic, tidal, ice, and meteorological regimes of these seas may be investigated on the basis of remote sensing data, specifically of satellite altimetry data. Results of calibration and validation of satellite altimetry measurements (sea surface height and sea surface wind speed) and comparison with regional tidal model show that this type of data may be successfully used in scientific research and in monitoring of the environment. Complex analysis of the tidal regime of the White Sea and comparison between global and regional tidal models show advantages of regional tidal model for use in tidal correction of satellite altimetry data. Examples of using the sea level data in studying long-term variability of the Barents and White Seas are presented. Interannual variability of sea ice edge position is estimated on the basis of altimetry data.

The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika

A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

DOE PAGES

Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika; ...

2016-09-23

A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Historical and Late Holocene Rates of Sea-Level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

2014-05-01

A fundamental concern associated with climate change is the rate at which sea levels are rising. Studies of past sea level (particularly beyond the instrumental data range) allow modern sea-level rise to be placed in a more complete context. Considering this, we perform a Bayesian statistical analysis on historical and late Holocene rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to the statistical model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. The aims are to estimate rates of sea-level rise, to determine when modern rates of sea-level rise began and to observe how these rates have been changing over time. Many of the current methods for doing this use simple linear regression to estimate rates. This is often inappropriate as it is too rigid and it can ignore uncertainties that arise as part of the data collection exercise. This can lead to over confidence in the sea-level trends being characterized. The proposed Bayesian model places a Gaussian process prior on the rate process (i.e. the process that determines how rates of sea-level are changing over time). The likelihood of the observed data is the integral of this process. When dealing with proxy reconstructions, this is set in an errors-in-variables framework so as to take account of age uncertainty. It is also necessary, in this case, for the model to account for glacio-isostatic adjustment, which introduces a covariance between individual age and sea-level observations. This method provides a flexible fit and it allows for the direct estimation of the rate process with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. Analysis of tide-gauge datasets and proxy reconstructions in this way means that changing rates of sea level can be estimated more comprehensively and accurately than previously possible. The model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change and results show that not only are modern sea levels rising but that the rates of rise are continuously increasing. Analysis of the a global tide-gauge record (Church and White, 2011) indicated that the rate of sea-level rise increased continuously since 1880AD and is currently 2.57mm/yr (95% credible interval of 1.71 to 4.35mm/yr). Application of the model a proxy reconstruction from North Carolina (Kemp et al., 2011) indicated that the mean rate of rise in this locality since the middle of the 19th century (current rate of 2.66 mm/yr with a 95% credible interval of 1.29 to 4.59mm/yr) is in agreement with results from the tide gauge analysis and is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years.

Operational use of high-resolution sst in a coupled sea ice-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albretsen, A.

2003-04-01

A high-latitude, near real time, sea surface temperature (SST) product with 10 km resolution is developed at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met.no) through the EUMETSAT project OSI-SAF (Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility). The product covers the Atlantic Ocean from 50N to 90N and is produced twice daily. A digitized SST and sea ice map is produced manually once a week at the Ice Mapping Service at met.no using all available information from the previous week. This map is the basis for a daily SST analysis, in which the most recent OSI-SAF SST products are successively overlaid. The resulting SST analysis field is then used in a simple data assimilation scheme in a coupled ice-ocean model to perform daily 10 days forecasts of ocean and sea ice variables. Also, the associated OSI-SAF sea ice concentration product, built from different polar orbiting satellites, is assimilated into the sea ice model. Preliminary estimates of impact on forecast skill and error statistics will be presented.

Relevance of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection Data for Hydrodynamics and Water Quality Modelling of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenberg, R.; Vigouroux, G.; Chen, Y.; Bring, A.; Kalantari, Z.; Prieto, C.; Destouni, G.

2017-12-01

The Baltic Sea, located in Northern Europe, is one of the world's largest body of brackish water, enclosed and surrounded by nine different countries. The magnitude of climate change may be particularly large in northern regions, and identifying its impacts on vulnerable inland waters and their runoff and nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea is an important and complex task. Exploration of such hydro-climatic impacts is needed to understand potential future changes in physical, ecological and water quality conditions in the regional coastal and marine waters. In this study, we investigate hydro-climatic changes and impacts on the Baltic Sea by synthesizing multi-model climate projection data from the CORDEX regional downscaling initiative (EURO- and Arctic- CORDEX domains, http://www.cordex.org/). We identify key hydro-climatic variable outputs of these models and assess model performance with regard to their projected temporal and spatial change behavior and impacts on different scales and coastal-marine parts, up to the whole Baltic Sea. Model spreading, robustness and impact implications for the Baltic Sea system are investigated for and through further use in simulations of coastal-marine hydrodynamics and water quality based on these key output variables and their change projections. Climate model robustness in this context is assessed by inter-model spreading analysis and observation data comparisons, while projected change implications are assessed by forcing of linked hydrodynamic and water quality modeling of the Baltic Sea based on relevant hydro-climatic outputs for inland water runoff and waterborne nutrient loading to the Baltic sea, as well as for conditions in the sea itself. This focused synthesis and analysis of hydro-climatically relevant output data of regional climate models facilitates assessment of reliability and uncertainty in projections of driver-impact changes of key importance for Baltic Sea physical, water quality and ecological conditions and their future evolution.

An integrated weather and sea-state forecasting system for the Arabian Peninsula (WASSF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallos, George; Galanis, George; Spyrou, Christos; Mitsakou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Bartsotas, Nikolaos; Kalogrei, Christina; Athanaselis, Ioannis; Sofianos, Sarantis; Vervatis, Vassios; Axaopoulos, Panagiotis; Papapostolou, Alexandros; Qahtani, Jumaan Al; Alaa, Elyas; Alexiou, Ioannis; Beard, Daniel

2013-04-01

Nowadays, large industrial conglomerates such as the Saudi ARAMCO, require a series of weather and sea state forecasting products that cannot be found in state meteorological offices or even commercial data providers. The two major objectives of the system is prevention and mitigation of environmental problems and of course early warning of local conditions associated with extreme weather events. The management and operations part is related to early warning of weather and sea-state events that affect operations of various facilities. The environmental part is related to air quality and especially the desert dust levels in the atmosphere. The components of the integrated system include: (i) a weather and desert dust prediction system with forecasting horizon of 5 days, (ii) a wave analysis and prediction component for Red Sea and Arabian Gulf, (iii) an ocean circulation and tidal analysis and prediction of both Red Sea and Arabian Gulf and (iv) an Aviation part specializing in the vertical structure of the atmosphere and extreme events that affect air transport and other operations. Specialized data sets required for on/offshore operations are provided ate regular basis. State of the art modeling components are integrated to a unique system that distributes the produced analysis and forecasts to each department. The weather and dust prediction system is SKIRON/Dust, the wave analysis and prediction system is based on WAM cycle 4 model from ECMWF, the ocean circulation model is MICOM while the tidal analysis and prediction is a development of the Ocean Physics and Modeling Group of University of Athens, incorporating the Tidal Model Driver. A nowcasting subsystem is included. An interactive system based on Google Maps gives the capability to extract and display the necessary information for any location of the Arabian Peninsula, the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf.

Multi-objective spatial tools to inform maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Depellegrin, Daniel; Menegon, Stefano; Farella, Giulio; Ghezzo, Michol; Gissi, Elena; Sarretta, Alessandro; Venier, Chiara; Barbanti, Andrea

2017-12-31

This research presents a set of multi-objective spatial tools for sea planning and environmental management in the Adriatic Sea Basin. The tools address four objectives: 1) assessment of cumulative impacts from anthropogenic sea uses on environmental components of marine areas; 2) analysis of sea use conflicts; 3) 3-D hydrodynamic modelling of nutrient dispersion (nitrogen and phosphorus) from riverine sources in the Adriatic Sea Basin and 4) marine ecosystem services capacity assessment from seabed habitats based on an ES matrix approach. Geospatial modelling results were illustrated, analysed and compared on country level and for three biogeographic subdivisions, Northern-Central-Southern Adriatic Sea. The paper discusses model results for their spatial implications, relevance for sea planning, limitations and concludes with an outlook towards the need for more integrated, multi-functional tools development for sea planning. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Variational data assimilation problem for the Baltic Sea thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharova, Natalia; Agoshkov, Valery; Parmuzin, Eugene

2015-04-01

The most versatile and promising technology for solving problems of monitoring and analysis of the natural environment is a four-dimensional variational data assimilation of observation data. In such problems not only the development and justification of algorithms for numerical solution of variational data assimilation problems but the properties of the optimal solution play an important role. In this work the variational data assimilation problems in the Baltic Sea water area were formulated and studied. Numerical experiments on restoring the ocean heat flux and obtaining solution of the system (temperature, salinity, velocity, and sea surface height) in the Baltic Sea primitive equation hydrodynamics model with assimilation procedure were carried out. In the calculations we used daily sea surface temperature observation from Danish meteorological Institute, prepared on the basis of measurements of the radiometer (AVHRR, AATSR and AMSRE) and spectroradiometer (SEVIRI and MODIS). The spatial resolution of the model grid with respect to the horizontal variables amounted to 0.0625x0.03125 degree. The results of the numerical experiments are presented. This study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 13-01-00753, project 14-01-31195) and project 14-11-00609 by the Russian Science Foundation. References: 1 E.I. Parmuzin, V.I. Agoshkov, Numerical solution of the variational assimilation problem for sea surface temperature in the model of the Black Sea dynamics. Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling (2012) 27, No.1, 69-94 2 Zakharova N.B., Agoshkov V.I., Parmuzin E.I., The new method of ARGO buoys system observation data interpolation. Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling. Vol. 28, Issue 1, 2013. 3 Zalesny V.B., Gusev A.V., Chernobay S.Yu., Aps R., Tamsalu R., Kujala P., Rytkönen J. The Bal-tic Sea circulation modelling and assessment of marine pollution, Russ. J. Numer. Analysis and Math. Modelling, 2014, V 29, No. 2, pp. 129-138.

Comparison of TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level and Linear Model Results forced by Various Wind Products for the Tropical Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hackert, Eric C.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1997-01-01

The goal of this paper is to compare TOPEX/Posaidon (T/P) sea level with sea level results from linear ocean model experiments forced by several different wind products for the tropical Pacific. During the period of this study (October 1992 - October 1995), available wind products include satellite winds from the ERS-1 scatterometer product of [HALP 97] and the passive microwave analysis of SSMI winds produced using the variational analysis method (VAM) of [ATLA 91]. In addition, atmospheric GCM winds from the NCEP reanalysis [KALN 96], ECMWF analysis [ECMW94], and the Goddard EOS-1 (GEOS-1) reanalysis experiment [SCHU 93] are available for comparison. The observed ship wind analysis of FSU [STRI 92] is also included in this study. The linear model of [CANE 84] is used as a transfer function to test the quality of each of these wind products for the tropical Pacific. The various wind products are judged by comparing the wind-forced model sea level results against the T/P sea level anomalies. Correlation and RMS difference maps show how well each wind product does in reproducing the T/P sea level signal. These results are summarized in a table showing area average correlations and RMS differences. The large-scale low-frequency temporal signal is reproduced by all of the wind products, However, significant differences exist in both amplitude and phase on regional scales. In general, the model results forced by satellite winds do a better job reproducing the T/P signal (i.e. have a higher average correlation and lower RMS difference) than the results forced by atmospheric model winds.

A case study for a digital seabed database: Bohai Sea engineering geology database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tianyun, Su; Shikui, Zhai; Baohua, Liu; Ruicai, Liang; Yanpeng, Zheng; Yong, Wang

2006-07-01

This paper discusses the designing plan of ORACLE-based Bohai Sea engineering geology database structure from requisition analysis, conceptual structure analysis, logical structure analysis, physical structure analysis and security designing. In the study, we used the object-oriented Unified Modeling Language (UML) to model the conceptual structure of the database and used the powerful function of data management which the object-oriented and relational database ORACLE provides to organize and manage the storage space and improve its security performance. By this means, the database can provide rapid and highly effective performance in data storage, maintenance and query to satisfy the application requisition of the Bohai Sea Oilfield Paradigm Area Information System.

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 2: Analysis models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Langland, R. A.

1977-01-01

As part of the SEASAT program of NASA, two sets of analysis programs were developed for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. One set of programs produce 63 x 63 horizontal mesh analyses on a polar stereographic grid. The other set produces 187 x 187 third mesh analyses. The parameters analyzed include sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and twelve levels of upper air temperature, height and wind analyses. The analysis output is used to initialize the primitive equation forecast models.

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

PubMed

Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

2010-10-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2010-01-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Arctic sea ice in the global eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis ORAP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tietsche, Steffen; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Zuo, Hao; Mogensen, Kristian

2017-08-01

We discuss the state of Arctic sea ice in the global eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis Ocean ReAnalysis Pilot 5 (ORAP5). Among other innovations, ORAP5 now assimilates observations of sea ice concentration using a univariate 3DVar-FGAT scheme. We focus on the period 1993-2012 and emphasize the evaluation of model performance with respect to recent observations of sea ice thickness. We find that sea ice concentration in ORAP5 is close to assimilated observations, with root mean square analysis residuals of less than 5 % in most regions. However, larger discrepancies exist for the Labrador Sea and east of Greenland during winter owing to biases in the free-running model. Sea ice thickness is evaluated against three different observational data sets that have sufficient spatial and temporal coverage: ICESat, IceBridge and SMOSIce. Large-scale features like the gradient between the thickest ice in the Canadian Arctic and thinner ice in the Siberian Arctic are simulated well by ORAP5. However, some biases remain. Of special note is the model's tendency to accumulate too thick ice in the Beaufort Gyre. The root mean square error of ORAP5 sea ice thickness with respect to ICESat observations is 1.0 m, which is on par with the well-established PIOMAS model sea ice reconstruction. Interannual variability and trend of sea ice volume in ORAP5 also compare well with PIOMAS and ICESat estimates. We conclude that, notwithstanding a relatively simple sea ice data assimilation scheme, the overall state of Arctic sea ice in ORAP5 is in good agreement with observations and will provide useful initial conditions for predictions.

Modeling and Analysis of Sea-level Rise Impacts on Salinity in the Lower St. Johns River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacopoulos, P.

2015-12-01

There is deliberate attention being paid to studying sea-level rise impacts on the lower St. Johns River, a drowned coastal plain-type estuary with low topographic drive, located in northeastern Florida. One area of attention is salinity in the river, which influences the entire food web, including sea and marsh grasses, juvenile crustaceans and fishes, wading birds and migratory waterfowl, marine mammals and other predator animals. It is expected that elevated ocean levels will increase the salinity of the estuarine waters, leading to deleterious effects on dependent species of the river biology. The objective of the modeling and analysis was: 1) to establish baseline conditions of salinity for the lower St. Johns River; and 2) to examine future conditions of salinity, as impacted by sea-level rise. Establishing baseline conditions entailed validation of the model for present-day salinity in the lower St. Johns River via comparison to available data. Examining future conditions entailed application of the model for sea-level rise scenarios, with comparison to the baseline conditions, for evaluation of sea-level rise impacts on salinity. While the central focus was on the physics of sea-level rise impacts on salinity, some level of salinity-biological assessment was conducted to identify sea-level rise/salinity thresholds, as related to negatively impacting different species of the river biology.

Arctic Sea Ice Predictability and the Sea Ice Prediction Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiggins, H. V.; Stroeve, J. C.

2014-12-01

Drastic reductions in Arctic sea ice cover have increased the demand for Arctic sea ice predictions by a range of stakeholders, including local communities, resource managers, industry and the public. The science of sea-ice prediction has been challenged to keep up with these developments. Efforts such as the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO; http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook) and the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook have provided a forum for the international sea-ice prediction and observing community to explore and compare different approaches. The SIO, originally organized by the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH), is now managed by the new Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), which is building a collaborative network of scientists and stakeholders to improve arctic sea ice prediction. The SIO synthesizes predictions from a variety of methods, including heuristic and from a statistical and/or dynamical model. In a recent study, SIO data from 2008 to 2013 were analyzed. The analysis revealed that in some years the predictions were very successful, in other years they were not. Years that were anomalous compared to the long-term trend have proven more difficult to predict, regardless of which method was employed. This year, in response to feedback from users and contributors to the SIO, several enhancements have been made to the SIO reports. One is to encourage contributors to provide spatial probability maps of sea ice cover in September and the first day each location becomes ice-free; these are an example of subseasonal to seasonal, local-scale predictions. Another enhancement is a separate analysis of the modeling contributions. In the June 2014 SIO report, 10 of 28 outlooks were produced from models that explicitly simulate sea ice from dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models. Half of the models included fully-coupled (atmosphere, ice, and ocean) models that additionally employ data assimilation. Both of these subsets (models and coupled models with data assimilation) have a far narrower spread in their prediction, indicating that the results of these more sophisticated methods are converging. Here we summarize and synthesize the 2014 contributions to the SIO, highlight the important questions and challenges that remain to be addressed, and present data on stakeholder uses of the SIO and related SIPN products.

Reclaiming the past: Using hierarchical Bayesian analysis to fill missing values in the tide gauge mean sea level record, with application to extreme value analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Tingley, M.

2015-12-01

Tide gauge records of mean sea level are some of the most valuable instrumental time series of oceanic variability and change. Yet these time series sometimes have short record lengths and intermittently missing values. Such issues can limit the utility of the data, for example, precluding rigorous analyses of return periods of extreme mean sea level events and whether they are unprecedented. With a view to filling gaps in the tide gauge mean sea level time series, we describe a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach. The model, which is predicated on the notion of conditional probabilities, comprises three levels: a process level, which casts mean sea level as a field with spatiotemporal covariance; a data level, which represents tide gauge observations as noisy, biased versions of the true process; and a prior level, which gives prior functional forms to model parameters. Using Bayes' rule, this technique gives estimates of the posterior probability of the process and the parameters given the observations. To demonstrate the approach, we apply it to 2,967 station-years of annual mean sea level observations over 1856-2013 from 70 tide gauges along the United States East Coast from Florida to Maine (i.e., 26.8% record completeness). The model overcomes the data paucity by sharing information across space and time. The result is an ensemble of realizations, each member of which is a possible history of sea level changes at these locations over this period, which is consistent with and equally likely given the tide gauge data and underlying model assumptions. Using the ensemble of histories furnished by the Bayesian model, we identify extreme events of mean sea level change in the tide gauge time series. Specifically, we use the model to address the particular hypothesis (with rigorous uncertainty quantification) that a recently reported interannual sea level rise during 2008-2010 was unprecedented in the instrumental record along the northeast coast of North America, and that it had a return period of 850 years. Preliminary analysis suggests that this event was likely unprecedented on the coast of Maine in the last century.

Large-Scale Aerosol Modeling and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-30

deserts of the world: Arabian Gulf, Sea of Japan, China Sea , Mediterranean Sea , and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. NAAPS also accurately predicts the...fate of large-scale smoke and pollution plumes. With its global and continuous coverage, 1 Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188...origin of dust plumes impacting naval operations in the Red Sea , Mediterranean, eastern Atlantic, Gulf of Guinea, Sea of Japan, Yellow Sea , and East

Automated connectionist-geostatistical classification as an approach to identify sea ice and land ice types, properties and provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goetz-Weiss, L. R.; Herzfeld, U. C.; Trantow, T.; Hunke, E. C.; Maslanik, J. A.; Crocker, R. I.

2016-12-01

An important problem in model-data comparison is the identification of parameters that can be extracted from observational data as well as used in numerical models, which are typically based on idealized physical processes. Here, we present a suite of approaches to characterization and classification of sea ice and land ice types, properties and provinces based on several types of remote-sensing data. Applications will be given to not only illustrate the approach, but employ it in model evaluation and understanding of physical processes. (1) In a geostatistical characterization, spatial sea-ice properties in the Chukchi and Beaufort Sea and in Elsoon Lagoon are derived from analysis of RADARSAT and ERS-2 SAR data. (2) The analysis is taken further by utilizing multi-parameter feature vectors as inputs for unsupervised and supervised statistical classification, which facilitates classification of different sea-ice types. (3) Characteristic sea-ice parameters, as resultant from the classification, can then be applied in model evaluation, as demonstrated for the ridging scheme of the Los Alamos sea ice model, CICE, using high-resolution altimeter and image data collected from unmanned aircraft over Fram Strait during the Characterization of Arctic Sea Ice Experiment (CASIE). The characteristic parameters chosen in this application are directly related to deformation processes, which also underly the ridging scheme. (4) The method that is capable of the most complex classification tasks is the connectionist-geostatistical classification method. This approach has been developed to identify currently up to 18 different crevasse types in order to map progression of the surge through the complex Bering-Bagley Glacier System, Alaska, in 2011-2014. The analysis utilizes airborne altimeter data and video image data and satellite image data. Results of the crevasse classification are compare to fracture modeling and found to match.

Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauels, Alexander; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias; Lorbacher, Katja; Wigley, Tom M. L.

2017-06-01

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major impacts of global warming; it will threaten coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the globe in coming centuries. Well-constrained sea level projections are needed to estimate future losses from SLR and benefits of climate protection and adaptation. Process-based models that are designed to resolve the underlying physics of individual sea level drivers form the basis for state-of-the-art sea level projections. However, associated computational costs allow for only a small number of simulations based on selected scenarios that often vary for different sea level components. This approach does not sufficiently support sea level impact science and climate policy analysis, which require a sea level projection methodology that is flexible with regard to the climate scenario yet comprehensive and bound by the physical constraints provided by process-based models. To fill this gap, we present a sea level model that emulates global-mean long-term process-based model projections for all major sea level components. Thermal expansion estimates are calculated with the hemispheric upwelling-diffusion ocean component of the simple carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC, which has been updated and calibrated against CMIP5 ocean temperature profiles and thermal expansion data. Global glacier contributions are estimated based on a parameterization constrained by transient and equilibrium process-based projections. Sea level contribution estimates for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are derived from surface mass balance and solid ice discharge parameterizations reproducing current output from ice-sheet models. The land water storage component replicates recent hydrological modeling results. For 2100, we project 0.35 to 0.56 m (66 % range) total SLR based on the RCP2.6 scenario, 0.45 to 0.67 m for RCP4.5, 0.46 to 0.71 m for RCP6.0, and 0.65 to 0.97 m for RCP8.5. These projections lie within the range of the latest IPCC SLR estimates. SLR projections for 2300 yield median responses of 1.02 m for RCP2.6, 1.76 m for RCP4.5, 2.38 m for RCP6.0, and 4.73 m for RCP8.5. The MAGICC sea level model provides a flexible and efficient platform for the analysis of major scenario, model, and climate uncertainties underlying long-term SLR projections. It can be used as a tool to directly investigate the SLR implications of different mitigation pathways and may also serve as input for regional SLR assessments via component-wise sea level pattern scaling.

A Quantitative Proxy for Sea-Ice Based on Diatoms: A Cautionary Tale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesterovich, A.; Caissie, B.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in the Polar Regions supports unique and productive ecosystems, but the current decline in the Arctic sea ice extent prompts questions about previous sea ice declines and the response of ice related ecosystems. Since satellite data only extend back to 1978, the study of sea ice before this time requires a proxy. Being one of the most productive, diatom-dominated regions in the world and having a wide range of sea ice concentrations, the Bering and Chukchi seas are a perfect place to find a relationship between the presence of sea ice and diatom community composition. The aim of this work is to develop a diatom-based proxy for the sea ice extent. A total of 473 species have been identified in 104 sediment samples, most of which were collected on board the US Coast Guard Cutter Healy ice breaker (2006, 2007) and the Norseman II (2008). The study also included some of the archived diatom smear slides made from sediments collected in 1969. The assemblages were compared to satellite-derived sea ice extent data averaged over the 10 years preceding the sampling. Previous studies in the Arctic and Antarctic regions demonstrated that the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is one of the best choices for proxy construction. It has the advantage of using only several species instead of the whole assemblage, thus including only sea ice-associated species and minimizing the noise created by species responding to other environmental factors. Our GAM on three species (Connia compita, Fragilariopsis reginae-jahniae, and Neodenticula seminae) has low standard deviation, high level of explained variation, and holds under the ten-fold cross-validation; the standard residual analysis is acceptable. However, a spatial residual analysis revealed that the model consistently over predicts in the Chukchi Sea and under predicts in the Bering Sea. Including a spatial model into the GAM didn't improve the situation. This has led us to test other methods, including a non-parametric model Random Forests. All models showed the same consistent pattern in the residuals. We conclude that ecosystems of the Bering and Chukchi seas respond differently to sea ice concentration and an integrated proxy must take it into account.

Sensitivity Analysis of a Lagrangian Sea Ice Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabatel, Matthias; Rampal, Pierre; Bertino, Laurent; Carrassi, Alberto; Jones, Christopher K. R. T.

2017-04-01

Large changes in the Arctic sea ice have been observed in the last decades in terms of the ice thickness, extension and drift. Understanding the mechanisms behind these changes is of paramount importance to enhance our modeling and forecasting capabilities. For 40 years, models have been developed to describe the non-linear dynamical response of the sea ice to a number of external and internal factors. Nevertheless, there still exists large deviations between predictions and observations. There are related to incorrect descriptions of the sea ice response and/or to the uncertainties about the different sources of information: parameters, initial and boundary conditions and external forcing. Data assimilation (DA) methods are used to combine observations with models, and there is nowadays an increasing interest of DA for sea-ice models and observations. We consider here the state-of-the art sea-ice model, neXtSIM te{Rampal2016a}, which is based on a time-varying Lagrangian mesh and makes use of the Elasto-Brittle rheology. Our ultimate goal is designing appropriate DA scheme for such a modelling facility. This contribution reports about the first milestone along this line: a sensitivity analysis in order to quantify forecast error to guide model development and to set basis for further Lagrangian DA methods. Specific features of the sea-ice dynamics in relation to the wind are thus analysed. Virtual buoys are deployed across the Arctic domain and their trajectories of motion are analysed. The simulated trajectories are also compared to real buoys trajectories observed. The model response is also compared with that one from a model version not including internal forcing to highlight the role of the rheology. Conclusions and perspectives for the general DA implementation are also discussed. \\bibitem{Rampal2016a} P. Rampal, S. Bouillon, E. Ólason, and M. Morlighem. ne{X}t{SIM}: a new {L}agrangian sea ice model. The Cryosphere, 10 (3): 1055-1073, 2016.

Space station interior noise analysis program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stusnick, E.; Burn, M.

1987-01-01

Documentation is provided for a microcomputer program which was developed to evaluate the effect of the vibroacoustic environment on speech communication inside a space station. The program, entitled Space Station Interior Noise Analysis Program (SSINAP), combines a Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) prediction of sound and vibration levels within the space station with a speech intelligibility model based on the Modulation Transfer Function and the Speech Transmission Index (MTF/STI). The SEA model provides an effective analysis tool for predicting the acoustic environment based on proposed space station design. The MTF/STI model provides a method for evaluating speech communication in the relatively reverberant and potentially noisy environments that are likely to occur in space stations. The combinations of these two models provides a powerful analysis tool for optimizing the acoustic design of space stations from the point of view of speech communications. The mathematical algorithms used in SSINAP are presented to implement the SEA and MTF/STI models. An appendix provides an explanation of the operation of the program along with details of the program structure and code.

Successes and Challenges in Linking Observations and Modeling of Marine and Terrestrial Cryospheric Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herzfeld, U. C.; Hunke, E. C.; Trantow, T.; Greve, R.; McDonald, B.; Wallin, B.

2014-12-01

Understanding of the state of the cryosphere and its relationship to other components of the Earth system requires both models of geophysical processes and observations of geophysical properties and processes, however linking observations and models is far from trivial. This paper looks at examples from sea ice and land ice model-observation linkages to examine some approaches, challenges and solutions. In a sea-ice example, ice deformation is analyzed as a key process that indicates fundamental changes in the Arctic sea ice cover. Simulation results from the Los Alamos Sea-Ice Model CICE, which is also the sea-ice component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), are compared to parameters indicative of deformation as derived from mathematical analysis of remote sensing data. Data include altimeter, micro-ASAR and image data from manned and unmanned aircraft campaigns (NASA OIB and Characterization of Arctic Sea Ice Experiment, CASIE). The key problem to linking data and model results is the derivation of matching parameters on both the model and observation side.For terrestrial glaciology, we include an example of a surge process in a glacier system and and example of a dynamic ice sheet model for Greenland. To investigate the surge of the Bering Bagley Glacier System, we use numerical forward modeling experiments and, on the data analysis side, a connectionist approach to analyze crevasse provinces. In the Greenland ice sheet example, we look at the influence of ice surface and bed topography, as derived from remote sensing data, on on results from a dynamic ice sheet model.

Simulation on a car interior aerodynamic noise control based on statistical energy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Wang, Dengfeng; Ma, Zhengdong

2012-09-01

How to simulate interior aerodynamic noise accurately is an important question of a car interior noise reduction. The unsteady aerodynamic pressure on body surfaces is proved to be the key effect factor of car interior aerodynamic noise control in high frequency on high speed. In this paper, a detail statistical energy analysis (SEA) model is built. And the vibra-acoustic power inputs are loaded on the model for the valid result of car interior noise analysis. The model is the solid foundation for further optimization on car interior noise control. After the most sensitive subsystems for the power contribution to car interior noise are pointed by SEA comprehensive analysis, the sound pressure level of car interior aerodynamic noise can be reduced by improving their sound and damping characteristics. The further vehicle testing results show that it is available to improve the interior acoustic performance by using detailed SEA model, which comprised by more than 80 subsystems, with the unsteady aerodynamic pressure calculation on body surfaces and the materials improvement of sound/damping properties. It is able to acquire more than 2 dB reduction on the central frequency in the spectrum over 800 Hz. The proposed optimization method can be looked as a reference of car interior aerodynamic noise control by the detail SEA model integrated unsteady computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and sensitivity analysis of acoustic contribution.

Statistical analysis of temperature data sampled at Station-M in the Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorentzen, Torbjørn

2014-02-01

The paper analyzes sea temperature data sampled at Station-M in the Norwegian Sea. The data cover the period 1948-2010. The following questions are addressed: What type of stochastic process characterizes the temperature series? Are there any changes or patterns which indicate climate change? Are there any characteristics in the data which can be linked to the shrinking sea-ice in the Arctic area? Can the series be modeled consistently and applied in forecasting of the future sea temperature? The paper applies the following methods: Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests for testing of unit-root and stationarity, ARIMA-models in univariate modeling, cointegration and error-correcting models are applied in estimating short- and long-term dynamics of non-stationary series, Granger-causality tests in analyzing the interaction pattern between the deep and upper layer temperatures, and simultaneous equation systems are applied in forecasting future temperature. The paper shows that temperature at 2000 m Granger-causes temperature at 150 m, and that the 2000 m series can represent an important information carrier of the long-term development of the sea temperature in the geographical area. Descriptive statistics shows that the temperature level has been on a positive trend since the beginning of the 1980s which is also measured in most of the oceans in the North Atlantic. The analysis shows that the temperature series are cointegrated which means they share the same long-term stochastic trend and they do not diverge too far from each other. The measured long-term temperature increase is one of the factors that can explain the shrinking summer sea-ice in the Arctic region. The analysis shows that there is a significant negative correlation between the shrinking sea ice and the sea temperature at Station-M. The paper shows that the temperature forecasts are conditioned on the properties of the stochastic processes, causality pattern between the variables and specification of model, respectively. The estimated models forecast that temperature at 150 m is expected to increase by 0.018 °C per year, while deep water temperature at 2000 m is expected to increase between 0.0022 and 0.0024 °C per year.

Investigating Effects of Monsoon Winds on Hydrodynamics in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chua, V. P.

2013-12-01

The South China Sea is a large marginal sea surrounded by land masses and island chains, and characterized by complex bathymetry and irregular coastlines. The circulation in South China Sea is subjected to seasonal and inter-annual variations of tidal and meteorological conditions. The effects of monsoon winds on hydrodynamics is investigated by applying spectral and harmonic analysis on surface elevation and wind data at stations located in the South China Sea. The analysis indicates varying responses to the seasonal monsoon depending on the location of the station. At Kaohsiung (located in northern South China Sea off Taiwan coast), tides from the Pacific Ocean and the southwest monsoon winds are found to be dominant mechanisms. The Kota Kinabalu and Bintulu stations, located to the east of South China Sea off Borneo coast, are influenced by low energy complex winds, and the shallow bottom bathymetry at these locations leads to tidal energy damping compared to other stations. The tidal dynamics at Tioman, located in southern South China Sea off Malaysia coast, are most responsive to the effects of the northeast monsoon. The complexity of our problem together with the limited amount of available data in the region presents a challenging research topic. An unstructured-grid SUNTANS model is employed to perform three-dimensional simulations of the circulation in South China Sea. Skill assessment of the model is performed by comparing model predictions of the surface elevations and currents with observations. The results suggest that the quality of the model prediction is highly dependent on horizontal grid resolution and coastline accuracy. The model may be used in future applications to investigate seasonal and inter-annual variations in hydrodynamics.

Extreme sea storm in the Mediterranean Sea. Trends during the 2nd half of the 20th century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pino, C.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2009-04-01

Extreme sea storm in the Mediterranean Sea. Trends during the 2nd half of the 20th century Piero Lionello, University of Salento, piero.lionello@unisalento.it Maria Barbara Galati, University of Salento, mariabarbara.galati@unisalento.it Cosimo Pino, University of Salento, pino@le.infn.it The analysis of extreme Significant Wave Height (SWH) values and their trend is crucial for planning and managing coastal defences and off-shore activities. The analysis provided by this study covers a 44-year long period (1958-2001). First the WW3 (Wave Watch 3) model forced with the REMO-Hipocas regional model wind fields has been used for the hindcast of extreme SWH values over the Mediterranean basin with a 0.25 deg lat-lon resolution. Subsequently, the model results have been processed with an ad hoc software to detect storms. GEV analysis has been perfomed and a set of indicators for extreme SWH have been computed, using the Mann Kendall test for assessing statistical significance of trends for different parameter such as the number of extreme events, their duration and their intensity. Results suggest a transition towards weaker extremes and a milder climate over most of the Mediterranean Sea.

MMAB Sea Ice Analysis Page

Science.gov Websites

. Consequently we produce two sorts of field. One is suitable for use by models, the global field. And the other color bar gif of the Alaska Region map Previous Alaska Region Maps NCEP MMAB Interactive Sea Ice Image Generation Animation Alaska Region Sea of Okhotsk and Sea of Japan - current figure concentration color bar

Towards uncertainty estimation for operational forecast products - a multi-model-ensemble approach for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golbeck, Inga; Li, Xin; Janssen, Frank

2014-05-01

Several independent operational ocean models provide forecasts of the ocean state (e.g. sea level, temperature, salinity and ice cover) in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on a daily basis. These forecasts are the primary source of information for a variety of information and emergency response systems used e.g. to issue sea level warnings or carry out oil drift forecast. The forecasts are of course highly valuable as such, but often suffer from a lack of information on their uncertainty. With the aim of augmenting the existing operational ocean forecasts in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea by a measure of uncertainty a multi-model-ensemble (MME) system for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and water transports has been set up in the framework of the MyOcean-2 project. Members of MyOcean-2, the NOOS² and HIROMB/BOOS³ communities provide 48h-forecasts serving as inputs. Different variables are processed separately due to their different physical characteristics. Based on the so far collected daily MME products of SST and SSS, a statistical method, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to assess their spatial and temporal variability. For sea surface currents, progressive vector diagrams at specific points are consulted to estimate the performance of the circulation models especially in hydrodynamic important areas, e.g. inflow/outflow of the Baltic Sea, Norwegian trench and English Channel. For further versions of the MME system, it is planned to extend the MME to other variables like e.g. sea level, ocean currents or ice cover based on the needs of the model providers and their customers. It is also planned to include in-situ data to augment the uncertainty information and for validation purposes. Additionally, weighting methods will be implemented into the MME system to develop more complex uncertainty measures. The methodology used to create the MME will be outlined and different ensemble products will be presented. In addition, some preliminary results based on the statistical analysis of the uncertainty measures provide first estimates of the regional and temporal performance of the ocean models for each parameter. ²Northwest European Shelf Operational Oceanography System ³High-resolution Operational Model of the Baltic / Baltic Operational Oceanographic System

Analysis and high-resolution modeling of a dense sea fog event over the Yellow Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Gang; Guo, Jingtian; Xie, Shang-Ping; Duan, Yihong; Zhang, Meigen

2006-10-01

A ubiquitous feature of the Yellow Sea (YS) is the frequent occurrence of the sea fog in spring and summer season. An extremely dense sea fog event was observed around the Shandong Peninsula in the morning of 11 April 2004. This fog patch, with a spatial scale of several hundreds kilometers and lasted about 20 h, reduced the horizontal visibility to be less than 20 m in some locations, and caused a series of traffic collisions and 12 injuries on the coastal stretch of a major highway. In this paper, almost all available observational data, including Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-9 visible satellite imagery, objectively reanalyzed data of final run analysis (FNL) issued by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the sounding data of Qingdao and Dalian, as well as the latest 4.4 version of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) model, were employed to investigate this sea fog case. Its evolutionary process and the environmental conditions that led to the fog formation were examined by using GOES-9 visible satellite imagery and sounding observations. In order to better understand the fog formation mechanism, a high-resolution RAMS modeling of 4 km × 4 km was designed. The modeling was initialized and validated by FNL data. A 30-h modeling that started from 18 UTC 10 April 2004 reproduced the main characteristics of this fog event. The simulated lower horizontal visibility area agreed reasonably well with the sea fog region identified from the satellite imagery. Advection cooling effect seemed to play a significant role for the fog formation.

Dimethylsulfide model calibration and parametric sensitivity analysis for the Greenland Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Bo; Gabric, Albert J.; Zeng, Meifang; Xi, Jiaojiao; Jiang, Limei; Zhao, Li

2017-09-01

Sea-to-air fluxes of marine biogenic aerosols have the potential to modify cloud microphysics and regional radiative budgets, and thus moderate Earth's warming. Polar regions play a critical role in the evolution of global climate. In this work, we use a well-established biogeochemical model to simulate the DMS flux from the Greenland Sea (20°W-10°E and 70°N-80°N) for the period 2003-2004. Parameter sensitivity analysis is employed to identify the most sensitive parameters in the model. A genetic algorithm (GA) technique is used for DMS model parameter calibration. Data from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to drive the DMS model under 4 × CO2 conditions. DMS flux under quadrupled CO2 levels increases more than 300% compared with late 20th century levels (1 × CO2). Reasons for the increase in DMS flux include changes in the ocean state-namely an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) and loss of sea ice-and an increase in DMS transfer velocity, especially in spring and summer. Such a large increase in DMS flux could slow the rate of warming in the Arctic via radiative budget changes associated with DMS-derived aerosols.

Processes driving sea ice variability in the Bering Sea in an eddying ocean/sea ice model: Mean seasonal cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Linghan; McClean, Julie L.; Miller, Arthur J.; Eisenman, Ian; Hendershott, Myrl C.; Papadopoulos, Caroline A.

2014-12-01

The seasonal cycle of sea ice variability in the Bering Sea, together with the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that control it, are examined in a fine resolution (1/10°) global coupled ocean/sea-ice model configured in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The ocean/sea-ice model consists of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). The model was forced with time-varying reanalysis atmospheric forcing for the time period 1970-1989. This study focuses on the time period 1980-1989. The simulated seasonal-mean fields of sea ice concentration strongly resemble satellite-derived observations, as quantified by root-mean-square errors and pattern correlation coefficients. The sea ice energy budget reveals that the seasonal thermodynamic ice volume changes are dominated by the surface energy flux between the atmosphere and the ice in the northern region and by heat flux from the ocean to the ice along the southern ice edge, especially on the western side. The sea ice force balance analysis shows that sea ice motion is largely associated with wind stress. The force due to divergence of the internal ice stress tensor is large near the land boundaries in the north, and it is small in the central and southern ice-covered region. During winter, which dominates the annual mean, it is found that the simulated sea ice was mainly formed in the northern Bering Sea, with the maximum ice growth rate occurring along the coast due to cold air from northerly winds and ice motion away from the coast. South of St Lawrence Island, winds drive the model sea ice southwestward from the north to the southwestern part of the ice-covered region. Along the ice edge in the western Bering Sea, model sea ice is melted by warm ocean water, which is carried by the simulated Bering Slope Current flowing to the northwest, resulting in the S-shaped asymmetric ice edge. In spring and fall, similar thermodynamic and dynamic patterns occur in the model, but with typically smaller magnitudes and with season-specific geographical and directional differences.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

Impact of assimilation of INSAT cloud motion vector (CMV) wind for the prediction of a monsoon depression over Indian Ocean using a mesoscale model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, V. F.; Chandrasekar, A.; Singh, Devendra

2006-12-01

The present study utilized the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5), to assimilate the INSAT-CMV (Indian National Satellite System-Cloud Motion Vector) wind observations using analysis nudging to improve the prediction of a monsoon depression which occurred over the Arabian Sea, India during 14 September 2005 to 17 September 2005. NCEP-FNL analysis has been utilized as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and two sets of numerical experiments were designed to reveal the impact of assimilation of satellite-derived winds. The model was integrated from 14 September 2005 00 UTC to 17 September 2005 00 UTC, with just the NCEP FNL analysis in the NOFDDA run. In the FDDA run, the NCEP FNL analysis fields were improved by assimilating the INSAT-CMV (wind speed and wind direction) as well as QuickSCAT sea surface winds during the 24 hour pre-forecast period (14 September 2005 00 UTC to 15 September 2005 00 UTC) using analysis nudging. The model was subsequently run in the free forecast mode from 15 September 2005 00 UTC to 17 September 2005 12 UTC. The simulated sea level pressure field from the NOFDDA run reveals a relatively stronger system as compared to the FDDA run. However, the sea level pressure fields corresponding to the FDDA run are closer to the analysis. The simulated lower tropospheric winds from both experiments reveal a well-developed cyclonic circulation as compared to the analysis.

Power flow as a complement to statistical energy analysis and finite element analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cuschieri, J. M.

1987-01-01

Present methods of analysis of the structural response and the structure-borne transmission of vibrational energy use either finite element (FE) techniques or statistical energy analysis (SEA) methods. The FE methods are a very useful tool at low frequencies where the number of resonances involved in the analysis is rather small. On the other hand SEA methods can predict with acceptable accuracy the response and energy transmission between coupled structures at relatively high frequencies where the structural modal density is high and a statistical approach is the appropriate solution. In the mid-frequency range, a relatively large number of resonances exist which make finite element method too costly. On the other hand SEA methods can only predict an average level form. In this mid-frequency range a possible alternative is to use power flow techniques, where the input and flow of vibrational energy to excited and coupled structural components can be expressed in terms of input and transfer mobilities. This power flow technique can be extended from low to high frequencies and this can be integrated with established FE models at low frequencies and SEA models at high frequencies to form a verification of the method. This method of structural analysis using power flo and mobility methods, and its integration with SEA and FE analysis is applied to the case of two thin beams joined together at right angles.

Numerical modelling of the Black Sea eigen-oscillations on a curvilinear boundary fitted coordinate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koychev Demirov, Encho

1994-12-01

The paper presents a numerical solution of barotropic and two-layer eigen-oscillation problems for the Black Sea on a boundary fitted coordinate system. This solution is compared with model and empirical data obtained by other workers. Frequencies of the eigen-oscillations found by the numerical solution of spectral problem are compared with the data obtained by spectral analysis of the sea-level oscillations measured near the town of Achtopol and Cape Irakli in stormy sea on 17-21 February 1979. Extreme oscillations of the sea-level result from resonant amplifications of three eigenmodes of the Black Sea of 68.3 -1, 36.6 -1 and 27.3 -1 cycles h -1 frequency.

Wintertime Air-Sea Gas Transfer Rates and Air Injection Fluxes at Station Papa in the NE Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeil, C.; Steiner, N.; Vagle, S.

2008-12-01

In recent studies of air-sea fluxes of N2 and O2 in hurricanes, McNeil and D'Asaro (2007) used a simplified model formulation of air-sea gas flux to estimate simultaneous values of gas transfer rate, KT, and air injection flux, VT. The model assumes air-sea gas fluxes at high to extreme wind speeds can be explained by a combination of two processes: 1) air injection, by complete dissolution of small bubbles drawn down into the ocean boundary layer by turbulent currents, and 2) near-surface equilibration processes, such as occurs within whitecaps. This analysis technique relies on air-sea gas flux estimates for two gases, N2 and O2, to solve for the two model parameters, KT and VT. We present preliminary results of similar analysis of time series data collected during winter storms at Station Papa in the NE Pacific during 2003/2004. The data show a clear increase in KT and VT with increasing NCEP derived wind speeds and acoustically measured bubble penetration depth.

Ship detection using STFT sea background statistical modeling for large-scale oceansat remote sensing image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lixia; Pei, Jihong; Xie, Weixin; Liu, Jinyuan

2018-03-01

Large-scale oceansat remote sensing images cover a big area sea surface, which fluctuation can be considered as a non-stationary process. Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) is a suitable analysis tool for the time varying nonstationary signal. In this paper, a novel ship detection method using 2-D STFT sea background statistical modeling for large-scale oceansat remote sensing images is proposed. First, the paper divides the large-scale oceansat remote sensing image into small sub-blocks, and 2-D STFT is applied to each sub-block individually. Second, the 2-D STFT spectrum of sub-blocks is studied and the obvious different characteristic between sea background and non-sea background is found. Finally, the statistical model for all valid frequency points in the STFT spectrum of sea background is given, and the ship detection method based on the 2-D STFT spectrum modeling is proposed. The experimental result shows that the proposed algorithm can detect ship targets with high recall rate and low missing rate.

The Ohio State 1991 geopotential and sea surface topography harmonic coefficient models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rapp, Richard H.; Wang, Yan Ming; Pavlis, Nikolaos K.

1991-01-01

The computation is described of a geopotential model to deg 360, a sea surface topography model to deg 10/15, and adjusted Geosat orbits for the first year of the exact repeat mission (ERM). This study started from the GEM-T2 potential coefficient model and it's error covariance matrix and Geosat orbits (for 22 ERMs) computed by Haines et al. using the GEM-T2 model. The first step followed the general procedures which use a radial orbit error theory originally developed by English. The Geosat data was processed to find corrections to the a priori geopotential model, corrections to a radial orbit error model for 76 Geosat arcs, and coefficients of a harmonic representation of the sea surface topography. The second stage of the analysis took place by doing a combination of the GEM-T2 coefficients with 30 deg gravity data derived from surface gravity data and anomalies obtained from altimeter data. The analysis has shown how a high degree spherical harmonic model can be determined combining the best aspects of two different analysis techniques. The error analysis was described that has led to the accuracy estimates for all the coefficients to deg 360. Significant work is needed to improve the modeling effort.

Antarctic Climate Variability: Covariance of Ozone and Sea Ice in Atmosphere - Ocean Coupled Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jrrar, Amna; Abraham, N. Luke; Pyle, John A.; Holland, David

2014-05-01

Changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and insulating nature. While Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) shows a negative trend. Antarctic SIE shows a weak but positive trend, estimated at 0.127 x 106 km2 per decade. The trend results from large regional cancellations, more ice in the Weddell and the Ross seas, and less ice in the Amundsen - Bellingshausen seas. A number of studies had demonstrated that stratospheric ozone depletion has had a major impact on the atmospheric circulation, causing a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which has been linked to the observed positive trend in autumn sea ice in the Ross Sea. However, other modelling studies show that models forced with prescribed ozone hole simulate decreased sea ice in all regions comparative to a control run. A recent study has also shown that stratospheric ozone recovery will mitigate Antarctic sea ice loss. To verify this assumed relationship, it is important first to investigate the covariance between ozone's natural (dynamical) variability and Antarctic sea ice distribution in pre-industrial climate, to estimate the trend due to natural variability. We investigate the relationship between anomalous Antarctic ozone years and the subsequent changes in Antarctic sea ice distribution in a multidecadal control simulation using the AO-UMUKCA model. The model has a horizontal resolution of 3.75 X 2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude; and 60 hybrid height levels in the vertical, from the surface up to a height of 84 km. The ocean component is the NEMO ocean model on the ORCA2 tripolar grid, and the sea ice model is CICE. We evaluate the model's performance in terms of sea ice distribution, and we calculate sea ice extent trends for composites of anomalously low versus anomalously high SH polar ozone column. We apply EOF analysis to the seasonal anomalies of sea ice concentration, MSLP, and Z 500, and identify the leading climate modes controlling the variability of Antarctic sea ice in each case, and study their relationship with SH polar ozone column.

Arctic sea ice signatures: L-band brightness temperature sensitivity comparison using two radiation transfer models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Friedrich; Drusch, Matthias; Kaleschke, Lars; Maaß, Nina; Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan; Mecklenburg, Susanne

2018-03-01

Sea ice is a crucial component for short-, medium- and long-term numerical weather predictions. Most importantly, changes of sea ice coverage and areas covered by thin sea ice have a large impact on heat fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere. L-band brightness temperatures from ESA's Earth Explorer SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) have been proven to be a valuable tool to derive thin sea ice thickness. These retrieved estimates were already successfully assimilated in forecasting models to constrain the ice analysis, leading to more accurate initial conditions and subsequently more accurate forecasts. However, the brightness temperature measurements can potentially be assimilated directly in forecasting systems, reducing the data latency and providing a more consistent first guess. As a first step towards such a data assimilation system we studied the forward operator that translates geophysical parameters provided by a model into brightness temperatures. We use two different radiative transfer models to generate top of atmosphere brightness temperatures based on ORAP5 model output for the 2012/2013 winter season. The simulations are then compared against actual SMOS measurements. The results indicate that both models are able to capture the general variability of measured brightness temperatures over sea ice. The simulated brightness temperatures are dominated by sea ice coverage and thickness changes are most pronounced in the marginal ice zone where new sea ice is formed. There we observe the largest differences of more than 20 K over sea ice between simulated and observed brightness temperatures. We conclude that the assimilation of SMOS brightness temperatures yields high potential for forecasting models to correct for uncertainties in thin sea ice areas and suggest that information on sea ice fractional coverage from higher-frequency brightness temperatures should be used simultaneously.

SLIVISU, an Interactive Visualisation Framework for Analysis of Geological Sea-Level Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klemann, V.; Schulte, S.; Unger, A.; Dransch, D.

2011-12-01

Flanking data analysis in earth system sciences by advanced visualisation tools is a striking feature due to rising complexity, amount and variety of available data. With respect to sea-level indicators (SLIs), their analysis in earth-system applications, such as modelling and simulation on regional or global scales, demands the consideration of large amounts of data - we talk about thousands of SLIs - and, so, to go ahead of analysing single sea-level curves. On the other hand, a gross analysis by means of statistical methods is hindered by the often heterogeneous and individual character of the single SLIs, i.e., the spatio-temporal context and often heterogenous information is difficult to handle or to represent in an objective way. Therefore a concept of integrating automated analysis and visualisation is mandatory. This is provided by visual analytics. As an implementation of this concept, we present the visualisation framework SLIVISU, developed at GFZ, which bases on multiple linked views and provides a synoptic analysis of observational data, model configurations, model outputs and results of automated analysis in glacial isostatic adjustment. Starting as a visualisation tool for an existing database of SLIs, it now serves as an analysis tool for the evaluation of model simulations in studies of glacial-isostatic adjustment.

Research Review, 1983

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The Global Modeling and Simulation Branch (GMSB) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is engaged in general circulation modeling studies related to global atmospheric and oceanographic research. The research activities discussed are organized into two disciplines: Global Weather/Observing Systems and Climate/Ocean-Air Interactions. The Global Weather activities are grouped in four areas: (1) Analysis and Forecast Studies, (2) Satellite Observing Systems, (3) Analysis and Model Development, (4) Atmospheric Dynamics and Diagnostic Studies. The GLAS Analysis/Forecast/Retrieval System was applied to both FGGE and post FGGE periods. The resulting analyses have already been used in a large number of theoretical studies of atmospheric dynamics, forecast impact studies and development of new or improved algorithms for the utilization of satellite data. Ocean studies have focused on the analysis of long-term global sea surface temperature data, for use in the study of the response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies. Climate research has concentrated on the simulation of global cloudiness, and on the sensitivities of the climate to sea surface temperature and ground wetness anomalies.

Marine traffic model based on cellular automaton: Considering the change of the ship's velocity under the influence of the weather and sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Le; Zheng, Zhongyi; Gang, Longhui

2017-10-01

It was found that the ships' velocity change, which is impacted by the weather and sea, e.g., wind, sea wave, sea current, tide, etc., is significant and must be considered in the marine traffic model. Therefore, a new marine traffic model based on cellular automaton (CA) was proposed in this paper. The characteristics of the ship's velocity change are taken into account in the model. First, the acceleration of a ship was divided into two components: regular component and random component. Second, the mathematical functions and statistical distribution parameters of the two components were confirmed by spectral analysis, curve fitting and auto-correlation analysis methods. Third, by combining the two components, the acceleration was regenerated in the update rules for ships' movement. To test the performance of the model, the ship traffic flows in the Dover Strait, the Changshan Channel and the Qiongzhou Strait were studied and simulated. The results show that the characteristics of ships' velocities in the simulations are consistent with the measured data by Automatic Identification System (AIS). Although the characteristics of the traffic flow in different areas are different, the velocities of ships can be simulated correctly. It proves that the velocities of ships under the influence of weather and sea can be simulated successfully using the proposed model.

Using state-space models to predict the abundance of juvenile and adult sea lice on Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Elghafghuf, Adel; Vanderstichel, Raphael; St-Hilaire, Sophie; Stryhn, Henrik

2018-04-11

Sea lice are marine parasites affecting salmon farms, and are considered one of the most costly pests of the salmon aquaculture industry. Infestations of sea lice on farms significantly increase opportunities for the parasite to spread in the surrounding ecosystem, making control of this pest a challenging issue for salmon producers. The complexity of controlling sea lice on salmon farms requires frequent monitoring of the abundance of different sea lice stages over time. Industry-based data sets of counts of lice are amenable to multivariate time-series data analyses. In this study, two sets of multivariate autoregressive state-space models were applied to Chilean sea lice data from six Atlantic salmon production cycles on five isolated farms (at least 20 km seaway distance away from other known active farms), to evaluate the utility of these models for predicting sea lice abundance over time on farms. The models were constructed with different parameter configurations, and the analysis demonstrated large heterogeneity between production cycles for the autoregressive parameter, the effects of chemotherapeutant bath treatments, and the process-error variance. A model allowing for different parameters across production cycles had the best fit and the smallest overall prediction errors. However, pooling information across cycles for the drift and observation error parameters did not substantially affect model performance, thus reducing the number of necessary parameters in the model. Bath treatments had strong but variable effects for reducing sea lice burdens, and these effects were stronger for adult lice than juvenile lice. Our multivariate state-space models were able to handle different sea lice stages and provide predictions for sea lice abundance with reasonable accuracy up to five weeks out. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Air-sea exchange over Black Sea estimated from high resolution regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velea, Liliana; Bojariu, Roxana; Cica, Roxana

2013-04-01

Black Sea is an important influencing factor for the climate of bordering countries, showing cyclogenetic activity (Trigo et al, 1999) and influencing Mediterranean cyclones passing over. As for other seas, standard observations of the atmosphere are limited in time and space and available observation-based estimations of air-sea exchange terms present quite large ranges of uncertainty. The reanalysis datasets (e.g. ERA produced by ECMWF) provide promising validation estimates of climatic characteristics against the ones in available climatic data (Schrum et al, 2001), while cannot reproduce some local features due to relatively coarse horizontal resolution. Detailed and realistic information on smaller-scale processes are foreseen to be provided by regional climate models, due to continuous improvements of physical parameterizations and numerical solutions and thus affording simulations at high spatial resolution. The aim of the study is to assess the potential of three regional climate models in reproducing known climatological characteristics of air-sea exchange over Black Sea, as well as to explore the added value of the model compared to the input (reanalysis) data. We employ results of long-term (1961-2000) simulations performed within ENSEMBLE project (http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/) using models ETHZ-CLM, CNRM-ALADIN, METO-HadCM, for which the integration domain covers the whole area of interest. The analysis is performed for the entire basin for several variables entering the heat and water budget terms and available as direct output from the models, at seasonal and annual scale. A comparison with independent data (ERA-INTERIM) and findings from other studies (e.g. Schrum et al, 2001) is also presented. References: Schrum, C., Staneva, J., Stanev, E. and Ozsoy, E., 2001: Air-sea exchange in the Black Sea estimated from atmospheric analysis for the period 1979-1993, J. Marine Systems, 31, 3-19 Trigo, I. F., T. D. Davies, and G. R. Bigg (1999): Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate, 12, 1685- 169

Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Serreze, Mark; Caswell, Hal

2012-09-01

Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa ) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Discrete-Element bonded-particle Sea Ice model DESIgn, version 1.3a - model description and implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Agnieszka

2016-04-01

This paper presents theoretical foundations, numerical implementation and examples of application of the two-dimensional Discrete-Element bonded-particle Sea Ice model - DESIgn. In the model, sea ice is represented as an assemblage of objects of two types: disk-shaped "grains" and semi-elastic bonds connecting them. Grains move on the sea surface under the influence of forces from the atmosphere and the ocean, as well as interactions with surrounding grains through direct contact (Hertzian contact mechanics) and/or through bonds. The model has an experimental option of taking into account quasi-three-dimensional effects related to the space- and time-varying curvature of the sea surface, thus enabling simulation of ice breaking due to stresses resulting from bending moments associated with surface waves. Examples of the model's application to simple sea ice deformation and breaking problems are presented, with an analysis of the influence of the basic model parameters ("microscopic" properties of grains and bonds) on the large-scale response of the modeled material. The model is written as a toolbox suitable for usage with the open-source numerical library LIGGGHTS. The code, together with full technical documentation and example input files, is freely available with this paper and on the Internet.

CMIP5-downscaled projections for the NW European Shelf Seas: initial results and insights into uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

2017-04-01

The North Sea, and wider Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS) are economically, environmentally, and culturally important for a number of European countries. They are protected by European legislation, often with specific reference to the potential impacts of climate change. Coastal climate change projections are an important source of information for effective management of European Shelf Seas. For example, potential changes in the marine environment are a key component of the climate change risk assessments (CCRAs) carried out under the UK Climate Change Act We use the NEMO shelf seas model combined with CMIP5 climate model and EURO-CORDEX regional atmospheric model data to generate new simulations of the NWS. Building on previous work using a climate model perturbed physics ensemble and the POLCOMS, this new model setup is used to provide first indication of the uncertainties associated with: (i) the driving climate model; (ii) the atmospheric downscaling model (iii) the shelf seas downscaling model; (iv) the choice of climate change scenario. Our analysis considers a range of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. The simulations are being carried out as part of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) and will feed into the following UK CCRA.

Numerical Analysis of the Sea State Bias for Satellite Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glazman, R. E.; Fabrikant, A.; Srokosz, M. A.

1996-01-01

Theoretical understanding of the dependence of sea state bias (SSB) on wind wave conditions has been achieved only for the case of a unidirectional wind-driven sea. Recent analysis of Geosat and TOPEX altimeter data showed that additional factors, such as swell, ocean currents, and complex directional properties of realistic wave fields, may influence SSB behavior. Here we investigate effects of two-dimensional multimodal wave spectra using a numerical model of radar reflection from a random, non-Gaussian surface. A recently proposed ocean wave spectrum is employed to describe sea surface statistics. The following findings appear to be of particular interest: (1) Sea swell has an appreciable effect in reducing the SSB coefficient compared with the pure wind sea case but has less effect on the actual SSB owing to the corresponding increase in significant wave height. (2) Hidden multimodal structure (the two-dimensional wavenumber spectrum contains separate peaks, for swell and wind seas, while the frequency spectrum looks unimodal) results in an appreciable change of SSB. (3) For unimodal, purely wind-driven seas, the influence of the angular spectral width is relatively unimportant; that is, a unidirectional sea provides a good qualitative model for SSB if the swell is absent. (4) The pseudo wave age is generally much better fo parametrization the SSB coefficient than the actual wave age (which is ill-defined for a multimodal sea) or wind speed. (5) SSB can be as high as 5% of the significant wave height, which is significantly greater than predicted by present empirical model functions tuned on global data sets. (6) Parameterization of SSB in terms of wind speed is likely to lead to errors due to the dependence on the (in practice, unknown) fetch.

Investigating Response from Attached and Separated Flow Excitations on a Real Launch Vehicle using SEA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, Phil; LaVerde, Bruce; Teague,David

2009-01-01

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) response has been fairly well anchored to test observations for Diffuse Acoustic Field (DAF) loading by others. Meanwhile, not many examples can be found in the literature anchoring the SEA vehicle panel response results to Turbulent Boundary Layer (TBL) fluctuating pressure excitations. This deficiency is especially true for supersonic trajectories such as those required by this nation s launch vehicles. Response and excitation data from vehicle flight measurements gathered during the development flight era of the Space Shuttle have been used in a trial to assess the sensitivity of response analysis to certain known and unknown parameters of the flight. This assessment compares vibration response predictions for TBL excitations produced by the SEA tool to flight measurements. A secondary, but perhaps more important objective, is to provide more clarity concerning the accuracy and conservatism that can be expected from response estimates to TBL-excited vehicle models in SEA. What range of parameters must be included in such an analysis in order to land on the conservative side in response predictions? What is the variability produced in the results with changes in these parameters? The TBL fluid structure loading model used for this study is provided from the SEA module of the commercial code VA One.

A case study of sea breeze circulation at Thumba Coast through observations and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunhikrishnan, P. K.; Ramachandran, Radhika; Alappattu, Denny P.; Kiran Kumar, N. V. P.; Balasubrahamanyam, D.

2006-12-01

A case study of sea breeze circulation at a coastal region Thumba (8.5°N, 76.9°E) was carried out using Doppler Sodar, surface wind, temperature, humidity measurements and radiosonde ascents. The analysis of surface meteorological data showed that the onset of sea breeze on 12th April 2006 was at 0945 hrs. GPS sonde observation over sea at 1425 hrs and Radiosonde observation over land at 1730 showed a well developed sea breeze circulation over Thumba coast by afternoon hours. The vertical extent of sea breeze circulation was ~1000m over sea as well as on land. The Thermal Internal Boundary Layer (TIBL) depth associated with sea breeze circulation was about 400m at 8 km away from coast. The marine mixed layer height was ~500m about 12 km away from the coast. Numerical simulation of sea breeze was made using HRM (High Resolution Model) and compared the results with the observations.

Analysis and Modeling of Multistatic Clutter and Reverberation and Support for the FORA

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

experiments, the 2014 Nordic Seas experiment. The PI’s technical objectives for the experiment are to characterize and model multistatic bottom clutter... Nordic Seas experiments, as well as other efforts as directed by ONR-OA. APPROACH There is a 6-year ONR OA plan for three large experiments

Stationary Solutions of A One-dimensional Thermodynamic Radiative Sea Ice Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. D.; Feltham, D. L.

A one-dimensional thermodynamic model of sea ice is coupled to a two-stream radi- ation model and the stationary (time-independent) solutions analysed. The stationary model represents the state of the sea ice subjected to persistent or slowly varying forc- ing. Two physically realisable stationary solutions (real and positive ice thickness) occur for a large range of positive oceanic heat flux ( 20,Wm-2). The two station- ary solutions are due to the two-stream radiation model, which allows radiation to be reflected at the ice-ocean interface. Thick ice ( 1,m) only absorbs radiation near its surface, whereas thin ice ( 0.1,m) absorbs radiation across its entire depth. The two stationary solutions are caused by these two different radiative regimes. The results of this analysis have relevance to the interpretation and implementation of thermody- namic models of sea ice and the interpretation of thickness data.

Asymptotic modal analysis and statistical energy analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dowell, Earl H.

1992-01-01

Asymptotic Modal Analysis (AMA) is a method which is used to model linear dynamical systems with many participating modes. The AMA method was originally developed to show the relationship between statistical energy analysis (SEA) and classical modal analysis (CMA). In the limit of a large number of modes of a vibrating system, the classical modal analysis result can be shown to be equivalent to the statistical energy analysis result. As the CMA result evolves into the SEA result, a number of systematic assumptions are made. Most of these assumptions are based upon the supposition that the number of modes approaches infinity. It is for this reason that the term 'asymptotic' is used. AMA is the asymptotic result of taking the limit of CMA as the number of modes approaches infinity. AMA refers to any of the intermediate results between CMA and SEA, as well as the SEA result which is derived from CMA. The main advantage of the AMA method is that individual modal characteristics are not required in the model or computations. By contrast, CMA requires that each modal parameter be evaluated at each frequency. In the latter, contributions from each mode are computed and the final answer is obtained by summing over all the modes in the particular band of interest. AMA evaluates modal parameters only at their center frequency and does not sum the individual contributions from each mode in order to obtain a final result. The method is similar to SEA in this respect. However, SEA is only capable of obtaining spatial averages or means, as it is a statistical method. Since AMA is systematically derived from CMA, it can obtain local spatial information as well.

High resolution sea ice modeling for the region of Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharov, I.; Prasad, S.; McGuire, P.

2016-12-01

A multi-category numerical sea ice model (CICE) with a data assimilation module was implemented to derive sea ice parameters in the region of Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea with resolution higher than 10 km. The model derived ice parameters include concentration, ridge keel measurement, thickness and freeboard. The module for assimilation of ice concentration uses data from the Advance Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and OSI SAF data. The sea surface temperature (SST) data from AMSRE-AVHRR and Operational SST and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) system were used to correct the SST computed by a mixed layer slab ocean model that is used to determine the growth and melt of sea ice. The ice thickness parameter from the model was compared with the measurements from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity - Microwave Imaging Radiometer using Aperture Synthesis (SMOS-MIRAS). The freeboard measures where compared with the Cryosat-2 measurements. A spatial root mean square error computed for freeboard measures was found to be within the uncertainty limits of the observation. The model was also used to estimate the correlation parameter between the ridge and the ridge keel measurements in the region of Makkovik Bank. Also, the level ice draft estimated from the model was in good agreement with the ice draft derived from the upward looking sonar (ULS) instrument deployed in the Makkovik bank. The model corrected with ice concentration and SST from remote sensing data demonstrated significant improvements in accuracy of the estimated ice parameters. The model can be used for operational forecast and climate research.

Effect of different implementations of the same ice history in GIA modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barletta, V. R.; Bordoni, A.

2013-11-01

This study shows the effect of changing the way ice histories are implemented in Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) codes to solve the sea level equation. The ice history models are being constantly improved and are provided in different formats. The overall algorithmic design of the sea-level equation solver often forces to implement the ice model in a representation that differs from the one originally provided. We show that using different representations of the same ice model gives important differences and artificial contributions to the sea level estimates, both at global and at regional scale. This study is not a speculative exercise. The ICE-5G model adopted in this work is widely used in present day sea-level analysis, but discrepancies between the results obtained by different groups for the same ice models still exist, and it was the effort to set a common reference for the sea-level community that inspired this work. Understanding this issue is important to be able to reduce the artefacts introduced by a non-suitable ice model representation. This is especially important when developing new GIA models, since neglecting this problem can easily lead to wrong alignment of the ice and sea-level histories, particularly close to the deglaciation areas, like Antarctica.

The Shock and Vibration Digest. Volume 16, Number 3

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-03-01

Fluid-induced Statistical Energy Analysis Method excitation, Wind tunnel testing V.R. Miller and L.L. Faulkner Flight Dynamics Lab., Air Force...84475 wall by the statistical energy analysis (SEA) method. The fuselage structure is represented as a series of curved, iso- Probabilistic Fracture...heavy are demonstrated in three-dimensional form. floor, a statistical energy analysis (SEA) model is presented. Only structural systems (i.e., no

Towards Improving Sea Ice Predictabiity: Evaluating Climate Models Against Satellite Sea Ice Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.

2014-12-01

The last four decades have seen a remarkable decline in the spatial extent of the Arctic sea ice cover, presenting both challenges and opportunities to Arctic residents, government agencies and industry. After the record low extent in September 2007 effort has increased to improve seasonal, decadal-scale and longer-term predictions of the sea ice cover. Coupled global climate models (GCMs) consistently project that if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the eventual outcome will be a complete loss of the multiyear ice cover. However, confidence in these projections depends o HoHoweon the models ability to reproduce features of the present-day climate. Comparison between models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and observations of sea ice extent and thickness show that (1) historical trends from 85% of the model ensemble members remain smaller than observed, and (2) spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. Part of the explanation lies with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. These results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and to project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may be realized. On shorter time-scales, seasonal sea ice prediction has been challenged to predict the sea ice extent from Arctic conditions a few months to a year in advance. Efforts such as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) project, originally organized through the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH) and now managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN) synthesize predictions of the September sea ice extent based on a variety of approaches, including heuristic, statistical and dynamical modeling. Analysis of SIO contributions reveals that when the September sea ice extent is near the long-term trend, contributions tend to be accurate. Years when the observed extent departs from the trend have proven harder to predict. Predictability skill does not appear to be more accurate for dynamical models over statistical ones, nor is there a measurable improvement in skill as the summer progresses.

Do open-cycle hatcheries relying on tourism conserve sea turtles? Sri Lankan developments and economic-ecological considerations.

PubMed

Tisdell, Clem; Wilson, Clevo

2005-04-01

By combining economic analysis of markets with ecological parameters, this article considers the role that tourism-based sea turtle hatcheries (of an open-cycle type) can play in conserving populations of sea turtles. Background is provided on the nature and development of such hatcheries in Sri Lanka. The modeling facilitates the assessment of the impacts of turtle hatcheries on the conservation of sea turtles and enables the economic and ecological consequences of tourism, based on such hatcheries, to be better appreciated. The results demonstrate that sea turtle hatcheries serving tourists can make a positive contribution to sea turtle conservation, but that their conservation effectiveness depends on the way they are managed. Possible negative effects are also identified. Economic market models are combined with turtle population survival relationships to predict the conservation impact of turtle hatcheries and their consequence for the total economic value obtained from sea turtle populations.

NCEP SST Analysis

Science.gov Websites

Branches Global Climate & Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Contact EMC , state and local government Web resources and services. Real-time, global, sea surface temperature (RTG_SST_HR) analysis For a regional map, click the desired area in the global SST analysis and anomaly maps

Analysis and Report on SD2000: A Workshop to Determine Structural Dynamics Research for the Millenium

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-04-10

interest. These include Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA), fuzzy structure theory, and approaches combining modal analysis and SEA. Non-determinism...34 arising with increasing frequency. This has led to Statistical Energy Analysis , in which a system is modelled as a collection of coupled subsystems...22. IUTAM Symposium on Statistical Energy Analysis . 1999 Ed. F.J. Fahy and W.G. Price. Kluwer Academic Publishing. • 23. R.S. Langley and P

Large-Ensemble modeling of past and future variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with a coupled ice-Earth-sea level model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert; Gomez, Natalya

2016-04-01

To date, most modeling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's response to future warming has been calibrated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach, we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat of Antarctica, making use of geologic data of the last ~20,000 years to test the model against the large-scale variations during this period. The ice model is coupled to a global Earth-sea level model to improve modeling of the bedrock response and to capture ocean-ice gravitational interactions. Following several recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large Ensemble (LE) statistical methods, performing sets of 625 runs from 30,000 years to present with systematically varying model parameters. Objective scores for each run are calculated using modern data and past reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea level records, cosmogenic elevation-age data and uplift rates. The LE results are analyzed to calibrate 4 particularly uncertain model parameters that concern marginal ice processes and interaction with the ocean. LE's are extended into the future with climates following RCP scenarios. An additional scoring criterion tests the model's ability to reproduce estimated sea-level high stands in the warm mid-Pliocene, for which drastic retreat mechanisms of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff failure are needed in the model. The LE analysis provides future sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds. Sensitivities of future LE results to Pliocene sea-level estimates, coupling to the Earth-sea level model, and vertical profiles of Earth properties, will be presented.

Validation of sea ice models using an uncertainty-based distance metric for multiple model variables: NEW METRIC FOR SEA ICE MODEL VALIDATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Urban, Nathan M.

Here, we implement a variance-based distance metric (D n) to objectively assess skill of sea ice models when multiple output variables or uncertainties in both model predictions and observations need to be considered. The metric compares observations and model data pairs on common spatial and temporal grids improving upon highly aggregated metrics (e.g., total sea ice extent or volume) by capturing the spatial character of model skill. The D n metric is a gamma-distributed statistic that is more general than the χ 2 statistic commonly used to assess model fit, which requires the assumption that the model is unbiased andmore » can only incorporate observational error in the analysis. The D n statistic does not assume that the model is unbiased, and allows the incorporation of multiple observational data sets for the same variable and simultaneously for different variables, along with different types of variances that can characterize uncertainties in both observations and the model. This approach represents a step to establish a systematic framework for probabilistic validation of sea ice models. The methodology is also useful for model tuning by using the D n metric as a cost function and incorporating model parametric uncertainty as part of a scheme to optimize model functionality. We apply this approach to evaluate different configurations of the standalone Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) encompassing the parametric uncertainty in the model, and to find new sets of model configurations that produce better agreement than previous configurations between model and observational estimates of sea ice concentration and thickness.« less

Validation of sea ice models using an uncertainty-based distance metric for multiple model variables: NEW METRIC FOR SEA ICE MODEL VALIDATION

DOE PAGES

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Urban, Nathan M.; ...

2017-04-01

Here, we implement a variance-based distance metric (D n) to objectively assess skill of sea ice models when multiple output variables or uncertainties in both model predictions and observations need to be considered. The metric compares observations and model data pairs on common spatial and temporal grids improving upon highly aggregated metrics (e.g., total sea ice extent or volume) by capturing the spatial character of model skill. The D n metric is a gamma-distributed statistic that is more general than the χ 2 statistic commonly used to assess model fit, which requires the assumption that the model is unbiased andmore » can only incorporate observational error in the analysis. The D n statistic does not assume that the model is unbiased, and allows the incorporation of multiple observational data sets for the same variable and simultaneously for different variables, along with different types of variances that can characterize uncertainties in both observations and the model. This approach represents a step to establish a systematic framework for probabilistic validation of sea ice models. The methodology is also useful for model tuning by using the D n metric as a cost function and incorporating model parametric uncertainty as part of a scheme to optimize model functionality. We apply this approach to evaluate different configurations of the standalone Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) encompassing the parametric uncertainty in the model, and to find new sets of model configurations that produce better agreement than previous configurations between model and observational estimates of sea ice concentration and thickness.« less

Arctic melt ponds and bifurcations in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudakov, I.; Vakulenko, S. A.; Golden, K. M.

2015-05-01

Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo - a key parameter in climate modeling. Here we explore the possibility of a conceptual sea ice climate model passing through a bifurcation point - an irreversible critical threshold as the system warms, by incorporating geometric information about melt pond evolution. This study is based on a bifurcation analysis of the energy balance climate model with ice-albedo feedback as the key mechanism driving the system to bifurcation points.

Fuzzy interval Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis for mid-frequency analysis of built-up systems with mixed fuzzy and interval parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Hui; Yu, Dejie; Yin, Shengwen; Xia, Baizhan

2016-10-01

This paper introduces mixed fuzzy and interval parametric uncertainties into the FE components of the hybrid Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (FE/SEA) model for mid-frequency analysis of built-up systems, thus an uncertain ensemble combining non-parametric with mixed fuzzy and interval parametric uncertainties comes into being. A fuzzy interval Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (FIFE/SEA) framework is proposed to obtain the uncertain responses of built-up systems, which are described as intervals with fuzzy bounds, termed as fuzzy-bounded intervals (FBIs) in this paper. Based on the level-cut technique, a first-order fuzzy interval perturbation FE/SEA (FFIPFE/SEA) and a second-order fuzzy interval perturbation FE/SEA method (SFIPFE/SEA) are developed to handle the mixed parametric uncertainties efficiently. FFIPFE/SEA approximates the response functions by the first-order Taylor series, while SFIPFE/SEA improves the accuracy by considering the second-order items of Taylor series, in which all the mixed second-order items are neglected. To further improve the accuracy, a Chebyshev fuzzy interval method (CFIM) is proposed, in which the Chebyshev polynomials is used to approximate the response functions. The FBIs are eventually reconstructed by assembling the extrema solutions at all cut levels. Numerical results on two built-up systems verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Statistical trend analysis and extreme distribution of significant wave height from 1958 to 1999 - an application to the Italian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, G.; Carniel, S.; Chiggiato, J.; Sclavo, M.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2009-09-01

The study is a statistical analysis of sea states timeseries derived using the wave model WAM forced by the ERA-40 dataset in selected areas near the Italian coasts. For the period 1 January 1958 to 31 December 1999 the analysis yields: (i) the existence of a negative trend in the annual- and winter-averaged sea state heights; (ii) the existence of a turning-point in late 70's in the annual-averaged trend of sea state heights at a site in the Northern Adriatic Sea; (iii) the overall absence of a significant trend in the annual-averaged mean durations of sea states over thresholds; (iv) the assessment of the extreme values on a time-scale of thousand years. The analysis uses two methods to obtain samples of extremes from the independent sea states: the r-largest annual maxima and the peak-over-threshold. The two methods show statistical differences in retrieving the return values and more generally in describing the significant wave field. The study shows the existence of decadal negative trends in the significant wave heights and by this it conveys useful information on the wave climatology of the Italian seas during the second half of the 20th century.

The inland boundary layer at low latitudes: II Sea-breeze influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Physick, W. L.

1985-11-01

Two-dimensional mesoscale model results support the claim of evening sea-breeze activity at Daly Waters, 280 km inland from the coast in northern Australia, the site of the Koorin boundary-layer experiment. The sea breeze occurs in conditions of strong onshore and alongshore geostrophic winds, not normally associated with such activity. It manifests itself at Daly Waters and in the model as a cooling in a layer 500 1000 m deep, as an associated surface pressure jump, as strong backing of the wind and, when an offshore low-level wind is present, as a collapse in the inland nocturnal jet. Both observational analysis and model results illustrate the rotational aspects of the deeply penetrating sea breeze; in our analysis this is represented in terms of a surge vector — the vector difference between the post- and pre-frontal low-level winds. There is further evidence to support earlier work that the sea breeze during the afternoon and well into the night — at least for these low-latitude experiments — behaves in many ways as an atmospheric gravity current, and that inland penetrations up to 500 km occur.

SWIFT Observations in the Arctic Sea State DRI

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

to understand the role of waves and sea state in the Arctic Ocean, such that forecast models are improved and a robust climatology is defined...OBJECTIVES The objectives are to: develop a sea state climatology for the Arctic Ocean, improve wave forecasting in the presence of sea ice, improve...experiment, coordination of remote sensing products, and analysis of climatology . A detailed cruise plan has been written, including a table of the remote

Influence of the sea-ice edge on the Arctic nearshore environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, K. R.; Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S.

2013-12-01

Coasts form the dynamic interface of the terrestrial and oceanic systems. In the Arctic, and in much of the world, the coast is a zone of relatively high population, infrastructure, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. A significant difference between Arctic and temperate coasts is the presence of sea ice. Sea ice influences Arctic coasts in two main ways: (1) the length of the sea ice-free season controls the length of time over which nearshore water can interact with the land, and (2) the sea ice edge controls the fetch over which storm winds can blow over open water, resulting in changes in nearshore water level and wave field. The resulting nearshore hydrodynamic environment impacts all aspects of the coastal system. Here, we use satellite records of sea ice along with a simple model for wind-driven storm surge and waves to document how changes in the length and character of the sea ice-free season have impacted the nearshore hydrodynamic environment. For our sea ice analysis we primarily use the Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS. We make whole-Arctic maps of sea ice change in the coastal zone. In addition to evaluating changes in length of the sea ice-free season at the coast, we look at changes segmented by azimuth. This allows us to consider changes in the sea ice in the context of the wind field. For our storm surge and wave field analysis we focus on the Beaufort Sea region. This region has experienced some of the greatest changes in both sea ice cover and coastal erosion rates in the Arctic and is anticipated to experience significant change in the future. In addition, the NOAA ESRL GMD has observed the wind field at Barrow since extends to 1977. In our past work on the rapid and accelerating coastal erosion, we have shown that one may model storm surge with a 2D numerical bathystrophic model, and that waves are well represented by the Shore Protection Manual methods for shallow-water fetch-limited waves. We use these models to explore the effect of increasing fetch on water level set up and wave generation. As increasing the fetch is one of the main effects of the changing sea ice cover, this allows us to connect changes in the sea ice cover to changes in the nearshore hydrodynamic environment. The long wind record allows for us to investigate changes in extreme wind and associated storm events. Preliminary analysis of Barrow and Drew Point indicate that at Drew Point the sea ice-free season has expanded by ˜17 days/decade while at Barrow it has expanded by ˜22 days/decade. We find the increase in the number of days when the sea ice edge is far away from the coast makes up a large proportion of the total increase in the duration of the sea ice-free season. For these days the sea ice edge does not provide a limit on the fetch over which water level set up and waves are generated.

An ice-ocean coupled model for the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, Abe; Preller, Ruth

1992-01-01

The Hibler ice model has been modified and adapted to a domain that includes most of the sea ice-covered areas in the Northern Hemisphere. This model, joined with the Cox ocean model, is developed as an enhancement to the U.S. Navy's sea ice forecasting, PIPS, and is termed PIPS2.0. Generally, the modeled ice edge is consistent with the Navy-NOAA Joint Ice Center weekly analysis, and the modeled ice thickness distribution agrees with submarine sonar data in the central Arctic basin.

An Experimental Real-Time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for Intra America Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, D. S.; Preller, R. H.; Martin, P. J.

2003-04-01

An experimental real-time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System has been developed for the Intra America Seas (IASNFS). The area of coverage includes the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. The system produces nowcast and up to 72 hours forecast the sea level variation, 3D ocean current, temperature and salinity fields. IASNFS consists an 1/24 degree (~5 km), 41-level sigma-z data-assimilating ocean model based on NCOM. For daily nowcast/forecast the model is restarted from previous nowcast. Once model is restarted it continuously assimilates the synthetic temperature/salinity profiles generated by a data analysis model called MODAS to produce nowcast. Real-time data come from satellite altimeter (GFO, TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2) sea surface height anomaly and AVHRR sea surface temperature. Three hourly surface heat fluxes, including solar radiation, wind stresses and sea level air pressure from NOGAPS/FNMOC are applied for surface forcing. Forecasts are produced with available NOGAPS forecasts. Once the nowcast/forecast are produced they are distributed through the Internet via the updated web pages. The open boundary conditions including sea surface elevation, transport, temperature, salinity and currents are provided by the NRL 1/8 degree Global NCOM which is operated daily. An one way coupling scheme is used to ingest those boundary conditions into the IAS model. There are 41 rivers with monthly discharges included in the IASNFS.

A radiation hybrid map of the European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) based on 1581 markers: Synteny analysis with model fish genomes.

PubMed

Guyon, Richard; Senger, Fabrice; Rakotomanga, Michaelle; Sadequi, Naoual; Volckaert, Filip A M; Hitte, Christophe; Galibert, Francis

2010-10-01

The selective breeding of fish for aquaculture purposes requires the understanding of the genetic basis of traits such as growth, behaviour, resistance to pathogens and sex determinism. Access to well-developed genomic resources is a prerequisite to improve the knowledge of these traits. Having this aim in mind, a radiation hybrid (RH) panel of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) was constructed from splenocytes irradiated at 3000 rad, allowing the construction of a 1581 marker RH map. A total of 1440 gene markers providing ~4400 anchors with the genomes of three-spined stickleback, medaka, pufferfish and zebrafish, helped establish synteny relationships with these model species. The identification of Conserved Segments Ordered (CSO) between sea bass and model species allows the anticipation of the position of any sea bass gene from its location in model genomes. Synteny relationships between sea bass and gilthead seabream were addressed by mapping 37 orthologous markers. The sea bass genetic linkage map was integrated in the RH map through the mapping of 141 microsatellites. We are thus able to present the first complete gene map of sea bass. It will facilitate linkage studies and the identification of candidate genes and Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL). The RH map further positions sea bass as a genetic and evolutionary model of Perciformes and supports their ongoing aquaculture expansion. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A numerical study of the South China Sea Warm Current during winter monsoon relaxation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Cong; Ding, Yang; Bao, Xianwen; Bi, Congcong; Li, Ruixiang; Zhang, Cunjie; Shen, Biao; Wan, Kai

2018-03-01

Using a Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model, we investigated the dynamic mechanism of the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) during winter monsoon relaxation. The model reproduces the mean surface circulation of the NSCS during winter, while model-simulated subtidal currents generally capture its current pattern. The model shows that the current over the continental shelf is generally southwestward, under a strong winter monsoon condition, but a northeastward counter-wind current usually develops between 50-and 100-m isobaths, when the monsoon relaxes. Model experiments, focusing on the wind relaxation process, show that sea level is elevated in the northwestern South China Sea (SCS), related to the persistent northeasterly monsoon. Following wind relaxation, a high sea level band builds up along the mid-shelf, and a northeastward current develops, having an obvious vertical barotropic structure. Momentum balance analysis indicates that an along-shelf pressure gradient provides the initial driving force for the SCSWC during the first few days following wind relaxation. The SCSWC subsequently reaches a steady quasi-geostrophic balance in the cross-shelf direction, mainly linked to sea level adjustment over the shelf. Lagrangian particle tracking experiments show that both the southwestward coastal current and slope current contribute to the northeastward movement of the SCSWC during winter monsoon relaxation.

Effects of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langevin, Christian D.; Zygnerski, Michael

2013-01-01

A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise.

Application of analysis techniques for low frequency interior noise and vibration of commercial aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landmann, A. E.; Tillema, H. F.; Macgregor, G. R.

1992-01-01

Finite element analysis (FEA), statistical energy analysis (SEA), and a power flow method (computer program PAIN) were used to assess low frequency interior noise associated with advanced propeller installations. FEA and SEA models were used to predict cabin noise and vibration and evaluate suppression concepts for structure-borne noise associated with the shaft rotational frequency and harmonics (less than 100 Hz). SEA and PAIN models were used to predict cabin noise and vibration and evaluate suppression concepts for airborne noise associated with engine radiated propeller tones. Both aft-mounted and wing-mounted propeller configurations were evaluated. Ground vibration test data from a 727 airplane modified to accept a propeller engine were used to compare with predictions for the aft-mounted propeller. Similar data from the 767 airplane was used for the wing-mounted comparisons.

Advanced statistical energy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heron, K. H.

1994-09-01

A high-frequency theory (advanced statistical energy analysis (ASEA)) is developed which takes account of the mechanism of tunnelling and uses a ray theory approach to track the power flowing around a plate or a beam network and then uses statistical energy analysis (SEA) to take care of any residual power. ASEA divides the energy of each sub-system into energy that is freely available for transfer to other sub-systems and energy that is fixed within the sub-systems that are physically separate and can be interpreted as a series of mathematical models, the first of which is identical to standard SEA and subsequent higher order models are convergent on an accurate prediction. Using a structural assembly of six rods as an example, ASEA is shown to converge onto the exact results while SEA is shown to overpredict by up to 60 dB.

An Approach for Economic Analysis of Intermodal Transportation

PubMed Central

Sahin, Bahri; Ust, Yasin; Guneri, Ali Fuat; Gulsun, Bahadir; Turan, Eda

2014-01-01

A different intermodal transportation model based on cost analysis considering technical, economical, and operational parameters is presented. The model consists of such intermodal modes as sea-road, sea-railway, road-railway, and multimode of sea-road-railway. A case study of cargo transportation has been carried out by using the suggested model. Then, the single road transportation mode has been compared to intermodal modes in terms of transportation costs. This comparison takes into account the external costs of intermodal transportation. The research reveals that, in the short distance transportation, single transportation modes always tend to be advantageous. As the transportation distance gets longer, intermodal transportation advantages begin to be effective on the costs. In addition, the proposed method in this study leads to determining the fleet size and capacity for transportation and the appropriate transportation mode. PMID:25152919

An approach for economic analysis of intermodal transportation.

PubMed

Sahin, Bahri; Yilmaz, Huseyin; Ust, Yasin; Guneri, Ali Fuat; Gulsun, Bahadir; Turan, Eda

2014-01-01

A different intermodal transportation model based on cost analysis considering technical, economical, and operational parameters is presented. The model consists of such intermodal modes as sea-road, sea-railway, road-railway, and multimode of sea-road-railway. A case study of cargo transportation has been carried out by using the suggested model. Then, the single road transportation mode has been compared to intermodal modes in terms of transportation costs. This comparison takes into account the external costs of intermodal transportation. The research reveals that, in the short distance transportation, single transportation modes always tend to be advantageous. As the transportation distance gets longer, intermodal transportation advantages begin to be effective on the costs. In addition, the proposed method in this study leads to determining the fleet size and capacity for transportation and the appropriate transportation mode.

An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caian, Mihaela; Koenigk, Torben; Döscher, Ralf; Devasthale, Abhay

2018-01-01

This work investigates links between Arctic surface variability and the phases of the winter (DJF) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on interannual time-scales. The analysis is based on ERA-reanalysis and model data from the EC-Earth global climate model. Our study emphasizes a mode of sea-ice cover variability that leads the NAO index by 1 year. The mechanism of this leading is based on persistent surface forcing by quasi-stationary meridional thermal gradients. Associated thermal winds lead a slow adjustment of the pressure in the following winter, which in turn feeds-back on the propagation of sea-ice anomalies. The pattern of the sea-ice mode leading NAO has positive anomalies over key areas of South-Davis Strait-Labrador Sea, the Barents Sea and the Laptev-Ohkostsk seas, associated to a high pressure anomaly over the Canadian Archipelago-Baffin Bay and the Laptev-East-Siberian seas. These anomalies create a quasi-annular, quasi-steady, positive gradient of sea-ice anomalies about coastal line (when leading the positive NAO phase) and force a cyclonic vorticity anomaly over the Arctic in the following winter. During recent decades in spite of slight shifts in the modes' spectral properties, the same leading mechanism remains valid. Encouraging, actual models appear to reproduce the same mechanism leading model's NAO, relative to model areas of persistent surface forcing. This indicates that the link between sea-ice and NAO could be exploited as a potential skill-source for multi-year prediction by addressing the key problem of initializing the phase of the NAO/AO (Arctic Oscillation).

A New Perspective on the Foraging Ecology of Apex Predators in the California Current: Results from a Fully Coupled Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, J.; Huckstadt, L. A.; Rose, K.; Costa, D. P.; Curchitser, E. N.; Hedstrom, K.; Edwards, C. A.; Moore, A. M.

2016-02-01

Results from a fully coupled end-to-end ecosystem model for the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem are used to describe the impact of environmental variability on the foraging ecology of its most abundant apex predator, California sea lions (Zalophus californianus). The ecosystem model consists of a biogeochemical submodel embedded in a regional ocean circulation submodel, and both coupled with a multi-species individual-based submodel for forage fish (sardine and anchovy) and California sea lions. For sea lions, bioenergetics and behavioral attributes are specified using available TOPP (Tagging Of Pacific Predators) data on their foraging patterns and diet in the California Current. Sardine and anchovy are explicitly included in the model as they represent important prey sources for California sea lions and exhibit significant interannual and decadal variability in population abundances. Output from a 20-year run (1989-2008) of the model demonstrates how different physical and biological processes control habitat utilization and foraging success of California sea lions on interannual time scales. A principal component analysis of sea lion foraging patterns indicates that the first mode of variability is alongshore and tied to sardine availability, while the second mode is cross-shore and associated with coastal upwelling intensity (a behavior consistent with male sea lion tracking data collected in 2004 vs. 2005). The results also illustrate how variability in environmental conditions and forage fish distribution affects sea lions feeding success. While specifically focusing on the foraging ecology of sea lions, our modeling framework has the ability to provide new and unique perspectives on trophic interactions in the California Current, or other regions where similar end-to-end ecosystem models may be implemented.

Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter-model uncertainties for extreme sea-levels at large spatial scales and compare them to the uncertainties in mean sea level projections.

Reduction and analysis of data collected during the electromagnetic tornado experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davisson, L. D.

1976-01-01

Techniques for data processing and analysis are described to support tornado detection by analysis of radio frequency interference in various frequency bands, and sea state determination from short pulse radar measurements. Activities include: strip chart recording of tornado data; the development and implementation of computer programs for digitalization and analysis of the data; data reduction techniques for short pulse radar data, and the simulation of radar returns from the sea surface by computer models.

Precise orbit computation and sea surface modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wakker, Karel F.; Ambrosius, B. A. C.; Rummel, R.; Vermaat, E.; Deruijter, W. P. M.; Vandermade, J. W.; Zimmerman, J. T. F.

1991-01-01

The research project described below is part of a long-term program at Delft University of Technology aiming at the application of European Remote Sensing satellite (ERS-1) and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter measurements for geophysical purposes. This program started in 1980 with the processing of Seasat laser range and altimeter height measurements and concentrates today on the analysis of Geosat altimeter data. The objectives of the TOPEX/POSEIDON research project are the tracking of the satellite by the Dutch mobile laser tracking system MTLRS-2, the computation of precise TOPEX/POSEIDON orbits, the analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of the orbit errors, the improvement of ERS-1 orbits through the information obtained from the altimeter crossover difference residuals for crossing ERS-1 and TOPEX/POSEIDON tracks, the combination of ERS-1 and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data into a single high-precision data set, and the application of this data set to model the sea surface. The latter application will focus on the determination of detailed regional mean sea surfaces, sea surface variability, ocean topography, and ocean currents in the North Atlantic, the North Sea, the seas around Indonesia, the West Pacific, and the oceans around South Africa.

Analysis of sea ice dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, J.

1988-01-01

The ongoing work has established the basis for using multiyear sea ice concentrations from SMMR passive microwave for studies of largescale advection and convergence/divergence of the Arctic sea ice pack. Comparisons were made with numerical model simulations and buoy data showing qualitative agreement on daily to interannual time scales. Analysis of the 7-year SMMR data set shows significant interannual variations in the total area of multiyear ice. The scientific objective is to investigate the dynamics, mass balance, and interannual variability of the Arctic sea ice pack. The research emphasizes the direct application of sea ice parameters derived from passive microwave data (SMMR and SSMI) and collaborative studies using a sea ice dynamics model. The possible causes of observed interannual variations in the multiyear ice area are being examined. The relative effects of variations in the large scale advection and convergence/divergence within the ice pack on a regional and seasonal basis are investigated. The effects of anomolous atmospheric forcings are being examined, including the long-lived effects of synoptic events and monthly variations in the mean geostrophic winds. Estimates to be made will include the amount of new ice production within the ice pack during winter and the amount of ice exported from the pack.

Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Chao-Yuan; Liu, Jiping (Inventor); Hu, Yongyun; Horton, Radley M.; Chen, Liqi; Cheng, Xiao

2016-01-01

This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multimodel spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3-7 years), but there is a reemerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6-8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Robert J.

Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an “IS92a world” based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding in 2100 is 16-388 million for the mid (55-cm) global-mean sea-level rise scenarios, and up to 510 million people/year for the high (96-cm) scenario. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be a significant problem if it is ignored, and hence it needs to be considered within the policy process considering climate change in terms of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (improved coastal management and planning) needs.

Extreme Statistics of Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, E. A.; Medvedev, I. P.

2017-11-01

Statistical analysis of the extreme values of the Baltic Sea level has been performed for a series of observations for 15-125 years at 13 tide gauge stations. It is shown that the empirical relation between value of extreme sea level rises or ebbs (caused by storm events) and its return period in the Baltic Sea can be well approximated by the Gumbel probability distribution. The maximum values of extreme floods/ebbs of the 100-year recurrence were observed in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The two longest data series, observed in Stockholm and Vyborg over 125 years, have shown a significant deviation from the Gumbel distribution for the rarest events. Statistical analysis of the hourly sea level data series reveals some asymmetry in the variability of the Baltic Sea level. The probability of rises proved higher than that of ebbs. As for the magnitude of the 100-year recurrence surge, it considerably exceeded the magnitude of ebbs almost everywhere. This asymmetry effect can be attributed to the influence of low atmospheric pressure during storms. A statistical study of extreme values has also been applied to sea level series for Narva over the period of 1994-2000, which were simulated by the ROMS numerical model. Comparisons of the "simulated" and "observed" extreme sea level distributions show that the model reproduces quite satisfactorily extreme floods of "moderate" magnitude; however, it underestimates sea level changes for the most powerful storm surges.

Validation of multi-mission satellite altimetry for the Baltic Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudryavtseva, Nadia; Soomere, Tarmo; Giudici, Andrea

2016-04-01

Currently, three sources of wave data are available for the research community, namely, buoys, modelling, and satellite altimetry. The buoy measurements provide high-quality time series of wave properties but they are deployed only in a few locations. Wave modelling covers large domains and provides good results for the open sea conditions. However, the limitation of modelling is that the results are dependent on wind quality and assumptions put into the model. Satellite altimetry in many occasions provides homogeneous data over large sea areas with an appreciable spatial and temporal resolution. The use of satellite altimetry is problematic in coastal areas and partially ice-covered water bodies. These limitations can be circumvented by careful analysis of the geometry of the basin, ice conditions and spatial coverage of each altimetry snapshot. In this poster, for the first time, we discuss a validation of 30 years of multi-mission altimetry covering the whole Baltic Sea. We analysed data from RADS database (Scharroo et al. 2013) which span from 1985 to 2015. To assess the limitations of the satellite altimeter data quality, the data were cross-matched with available wave measurements from buoys of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Finnish Meteorological Institute. The altimeter-measured significant wave heights showed a very good correspondence with the wave buoys. We show that the data with backscatter coefficients more than 13.5 and high errors in significant wave heights and range should be excluded. We also examined the effect of ice cover and distance from the land on satellite altimetry measurements. The analysis of cross-matches between the satellite altimetry data and buoys' measurements shows that the data are only corrupted in the nearshore domain within 0.2 degrees from the coast. The statistical analysis showed a significant decrease in wave heights for sea areas with ice concentration more than 30 percent. We also checked and corrected the data for biases between different missions. This analysis provides a unique uniform database of satellite altimetry measurements over the whole Baltic Sea, which can be further used for finding biases in wave modelling and studies of wave climatology. The database is available upon request.

A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turki, Imen; Laignel, Benoit; Kakeh, Nabil; Chevalier, Laetitia; Costa, Stephane

2015-04-01

This research is carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Here, a new hybrid model is implemented for filling gaps and forecasting the hourly sea level variability by combining classical harmonic analyses to high statistical methods to reproduce the deterministic and stochastic processes, respectively. After simulating the mean trend sea level and astronomical tides, the nontidal residual surges are investigated using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methods by two ways: (1) applying a purely statistical approach and (2) introducing the SLP in ARMA as a main physical process driving the residual sea level. The new hybrid model is applied to the western Atlantic sea and the eastern English Channel. Using ARMA model and considering the SLP, results show that the hourly sea level observations of gauges with are well reproduced with a root mean square error (RMSE) ranging between 4.5 and 7 cm for 1 to 30 days of gaps and an explained variance more than 80 %. For larger gaps of months, the RMSE reaches 9 cm. The negative and the positive extreme values of sea levels are also well reproduced with a mean explained variance between 70 and 85 %. The statistical behavior of 1-year modeled residual components shows good agreements with observations. The frequency analysis using the discrete wavelet transform illustrate strong correlations between observed and modeled energy spectrum and the bands of variability. Accordingly, the proposed model presents a coherent, simple, and easy tool to estimate the total sea level at timescales from days to months. The ARMA model seems to be more promising for filling gaps and estimating the sea level at larger scales of years by introducing more physical processes driving its stochastic variability.

A numerical model simulation of the regional air pollution meteorology of the greater Chesapeake Bay area - Summer day case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Pielke, R. A.; Mcnider, R. T.; Mcdougal, D. S.

1982-01-01

The mesoscale numerical model of the University of Virginia (UVMM), has been applied to the greater Chesapeake Bay area in order to provide a detailed description of the air pollution meteorology during a typical summer day. This model provides state of the art simulations for land-sea thermally induced circulations. The model-predicted results agree favorably with available observed data. The effects of synoptic flow and sea breeze coupling on air pollution meteorological characteristics in this region, are demonstrated by a spatial and temporal presentation of various model predicted fields. A transport analysis based on predicted wind velocities indicated possible recirculation of pollutants back onto the Atlantic coast due to the sea breeze circulation.

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in the CICE v5.1 Sea Ice Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrego-Blanco, J. R.; Urban, N. M.

2015-12-01

Changes in the high latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with mid latitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. In this work we characterize parametric uncertainty in Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE) and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent and volume with respect to uncertainty in about 40 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one-at-a-time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 40-dimensional parameter space. This approach requires a very large number of model evaluations, which are expensive to run. A more computationally efficient approach is implemented by training and cross-validating a surrogate (emulator) of the sea ice model with model output from 400 model runs. The emulator is used to make predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume at several model configurations, which are then used to compute the Sobol sensitivity indices of the 40 parameters. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model output is most sensitive to snow parameters such as conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. The main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a non-parametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. It is recommended research to be prioritized towards more accurately determining these most influential parameters values by observational studies or by improving existing parameterizations in the sea ice model.

Statistical trend analysis and extreme distribution of significant wave height from 1958 to 1999 - an application to the Italian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, G.; Carniel, S.; Chiggiato, J.; Sclavo, M.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2010-06-01

The study is a statistical analysis of sea states timeseries derived using the wave model WAM forced by the ERA-40 dataset in selected areas near the Italian coasts. For the period 1 January 1958 to 31 December 1999 the analysis yields: (i) the existence of a negative trend in the annual- and winter-averaged sea state heights; (ii) the existence of a turning-point in late 80's in the annual-averaged trend of sea state heights at a site in the Northern Adriatic Sea; (iii) the overall absence of a significant trend in the annual-averaged mean durations of sea states over thresholds; (iv) the assessment of the extreme values on a time-scale of thousand years. The analysis uses two methods to obtain samples of extremes from the independent sea states: the r-largest annual maxima and the peak-over-threshold. The two methods show statistical differences in retrieving the return values and more generally in describing the significant wave field. The r-largest annual maxima method provides more reliable predictions of the extreme values especially for small return periods (<100 years). Finally, the study statistically proves the existence of decadal negative trends in the significant wave heights and by this it conveys useful information on the wave climatology of the Italian seas during the second half of the 20th century.

Development of monoclonal antibodies against IgM of sea bass (Lateolabrax japonicus) and analysis of phagocytosis by mIgM+ lymphocytes.

PubMed

Yang, Shun; Tang, Xiaoqian; Sheng, Xiuzhen; Xing, Jing; Zhan, Wenbin

2018-07-01

B cells in some fish were recently found to have potent phagocytic activities. Sea bass (Lateolabrax japonicus) as an important economical marine fish species, it could be used as an appropriate model to study the functions of B cells in phagocytosis. In the paper, three positive hybridomas designated as 1E11, 2H4 and 3F3 secreting monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) against sea bass immunoglobulin M (IgM) were produced and used as research tools. Indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay showed that all the three MAbs had a high binding capacity with sea bass serum IgM. Western blotting analysis showed that all the three MAbs were specific for the heavy chain of sea bass IgM. Indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) analysis suggested that both MAbs 1E11 and 2H4 could recognize membrane-bound IgM (mIgM) molecule of sea bass. Specificity analysis showed that three MAbs had no cross-reactions with other six teleosts IgMs. Flow cytometric analysis exhibited that the percentages of sea bass mIgM + lymphocytes in peripheral blood, spleen and pronephros were 25.6%, 21.1%, and 17.5%, respectively. Moreover, we found that the mIgM + lymphocytes of sea bass could phagocytose fluorescence microspheres and Lactococcus lactis, but lower phagocytosis rates of L. lactis was observed. These results demonstrated that the MAbs produced in this paper could be used as tools to study secretory IgM and mIgM + lymphocytes of sea bass, and mIgM + lymphocytes might also play an important role in innate immunity of sea bass. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projected sea level rise, gyre circulation and water mass formation in the western North Pacific: CMIP5 inter-model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terada, Mio; Minobe, Shoshiro

2017-09-01

Future changes in the dynamic sea level (DSL), which is defined as sea-level deviation from the global mean sea level, is investigated over the North Pacific, by analyzing data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The analysis provides more comprehensive descriptions of DSL responses to the global warming in this region than available from previous studies, by using surface and subsurface data until the year 2300 under middle and high greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. The DSL changes in the North Pacific are characterized by a DSL rise in the western North Pacific around the Kuroshio Extension (KE), as also reported by previous studies. Subsurface density analysis indicates that DSL rise around the KE is associated with decrease in density of subtropical mode water (STMW) and with northward KE migration, the former (latter) of which is relatively strong between 2000 and 2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (between 2100 and 2300 for RCP8.5). The STMW density decrease is related to large heat uptake to the south and southeast of Japan, while the northward KE migration is associated with the poleward shift of the wind stress field. These features are commonly found in multi-model ensemble means and the relations among representative quantities produced by different climate models.

Projected sea level rise, gyre circulation and water mass formation in the western North Pacific: CMIP5 inter-model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terada, Mio; Minobe, Shoshiro

2018-06-01

Future changes in the dynamic sea level (DSL), which is defined as sea-level deviation from the global mean sea level, is investigated over the North Pacific, by analyzing data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The analysis provides more comprehensive descriptions of DSL responses to the global warming in this region than available from previous studies, by using surface and subsurface data until the year 2300 under middle and high greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. The DSL changes in the North Pacific are characterized by a DSL rise in the western North Pacific around the Kuroshio Extension (KE), as also reported by previous studies. Subsurface density analysis indicates that DSL rise around the KE is associated with decrease in density of subtropical mode water (STMW) and with northward KE migration, the former (latter) of which is relatively strong between 2000 and 2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (between 2100 and 2300 for RCP8.5). The STMW density decrease is related to large heat uptake to the south and southeast of Japan, while the northward KE migration is associated with the poleward shift of the wind stress field. These features are commonly found in multi-model ensemble means and the relations among representative quantities produced by different climate models.

Validation of newly designed regional earth system model (RegESM) for Mediterranean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turuncoglu, Ufuk Utku; Sannino, Gianmaria

2017-05-01

We present a validation analysis of a regional earth system model system (RegESM) for the Mediterranean Basin. The used configuration of the modeling system includes two active components: a regional climate model (RegCM4) and an ocean modeling system (ROMS). To assess the performance of the coupled modeling system in representing the climate of the basin, the results of the coupled simulation (C50E) are compared to the results obtained by a standalone atmospheric simulation (R50E) as well as several observation datasets. Although there is persistent cold bias in fall and winter, which is also seen in previous studies, the model reproduces the inter-annual variability and the seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) in a general good agreement with the available observations. The analysis of the near-surface wind distribution and the main circulation of the sea indicates that the coupled model can reproduce the main characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea surface and intermediate layer circulation as well as the seasonal variability of wind speed and direction when it is compared with the available observational datasets. The results also reveal that the simulated near-surface wind speed and direction have poor performance in the Gulf of Lion and surrounding regions that also affects the large positive SST bias in the region due to the insufficient horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component of the coupled modeling system. The simulated seasonal climatologies of the surface heat flux components are also consistent with the CORE.2 and NOCS datasets along with the overestimation in net long-wave radiation and latent heat flux (or evaporation, E), although a large observational uncertainty is found in these variables. Also, the coupled model tends to improve the latent heat flux by providing a better representation of the air-sea interaction as well as total heat flux budget over the sea. Both models are also able to reproduce the temporal evolution of the inter-annual anomaly of surface air temperature and precipitation (P) over defined sub-regions. The Mediterranean water budget (E, P and E-P) estimates also show that the coupled model has high skill in the representation of water budget of the Mediterranean Sea. To conclude, the coupled model reproduces climatological land surface fields and the sea surface variables in the range of observation uncertainty and allow studying air-sea interaction and main regional climate characteristics of the basin.

The analysis of GEOS-3 altimeter data in the Tasman and Coral seas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mather, R. S.

1977-01-01

A technique was developed for preprocessing GEOS-3 altimetry data to establish a model of the regional sea surface. The algorithms developed models for a 35,000,000 sq km area with an internal precision of + or - 1 m. There were discrepancies between the sea surface model so obtained and GEM6 based geoid profiles with wavelengths of approximately 2500 km and amplitudes of up to 5 m in this region. The amplitudes were smaller when compared with GEM10-based geoid determinations. However, the comparison of 14 pairs of overlapping passes in the region indicated altimeter resolution of the + or - 25 cm level if the wavelength corresponding to the Nyquist frequency were 30 km. The spectral analysis of such comparisons indicated the existence of significant signal strength in the discrepancies after least squares fitting, with wavelengths in excess of 200 km.

The Solomon Sea eddy activity from a 1/36° regional model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djath, Bughsin; Babonneix, Antoine; Gourdeau, Lionel; Marin, Frédéric; Verron, Jacques

2013-04-01

In the South West Pacific, the Solomon Sea exhibits the highest levels of eddy kinetic energy but relatively little is known about the eddy activity in this region. This Sea is directly influenced by a monsoonal regime and ENSO variability, and occupies a strategical location as the Western Boundary Currents exiting it are known to feed the warm pool and to be the principal sources of the Equatorial UnderCurrent. During their transit in the Solomon Sea, meso-scale eddies are suspected to notably interact and influence these water masses. The goal of this study is to give an exhaustive description of this eddy activity. A dual approach, based both on altimetric data and high resolution modeling, has then been chosen for this purpose. First, an algorithm is applied on nearly 20 years of 1/3° x 1/3° gridded SLA maps (provided by the AVISO project). This allows eddies to be automatically detected and tracked, thus providing some basic eddy properties. The preliminary results show that two main and distinct types of eddies are detected. Eddies in the north-eastern part shows a variability associated with the mean structure, while those in the southern part are associated with generation/propagation processes. However, the resolution of the AVISO dataset is not very well suited to observe fine structures and to match with the numerous islands bordering the Solomon Sea. For this reason, we will confront these observations with the outputs of a 1/36° resolution realistic model of the Solomon Sea. The high resolution numerical model (1/36°) indeed permits to reproduce very fine scale features, such as eddies and filaments. The model is two-way embedded in a 1/12° regional model which is itself one-way embedded in the DRAKKAR 1/12° global model. The NEMO code is used as well as the AGRIF software for model nestings. Validation is realized by comparison with AVISO observations and available in situ data. In preparing the future wide-swath altimetric SWOT mission that is expected to provide observations of small-scale sea level variability, spectral analysis is performed from the 1/36° resolution realistic model in order to characterize the finer scale signals in the Solomon sea region. The preliminary SSH spectral analysis shows a k-4 slope, in good agreement with the suface quasigeostrophic (SQG) turbulence theory. Keywords: Solomon Sea; meso-scale activity; eddy detection, tracking and properties; wavenumber spectrum.

Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles.

PubMed

Schuyler, Qamar A; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

2016-02-01

Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk Analysis Reveals Global Hotspots for Marine Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuyler, Q. A.; Wilcox, C.; Townsend, K.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, K.; Balazs, G.; van Sebille, E.; Hardesty, B. D.

2016-02-01

Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle, and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study, and turtle species. There was no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia, and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

Effect of Minerals on Intestinal IgA Production Using Deep Sea Water Drinks.

PubMed

Shiraishi, Hisashi; Fujino, Maho; Shirakawa, Naoki; Ishida, Nanao; Funato, Hiroki; Hirata, Ayumu; Abe, Noriaki; Iizuka, Michiro; Jobu, Kohei; Yokota, Junko; Miyamura, Mitsuhiko

2017-01-01

Minerals are essential for life, as they are a vital part of protein constituents, enzyme cofactors, and other components in living organisms. Deep sea water is characterized by its cleanliness and stable low temperature, and its possible health- and medical benefits are being studied. However, no study has yet evaluated the physical properties of the numerous commercially available deep sea water products, which have varying water sources and production methods. We analyzed these products' mineral content and investigated their effect on living organism, focusing on immune functions, and investigated the relation between physiological immunoactivities and mineral intake. We qualitatively analyzed the mineral compositions of the deep sea water drinks and evaluated the drinks' physical properties using principal component analysis, a type of multivariate analysis, of their mineral content. We create an iron and copper-deficient rat model and administered deep sea water drinks for 8 weeks. We then measured their fecal immunoglobulin A (IgA) to evaluate immune function. Principal component analysis suggested that physical properties of deep sea water drinks could be determined by their sources. Administration of deep sea water drinks increased fecal IgA, thus tending to stimulate immune function, but the extent of this effect varied by drink. Of the minerals contained in deep sea water, iron showed positive correlations with the fecal IgA. The principal component analysis used in this study is suitable for evaluating deep sea water containing many minerals, and our results form a useful basis for comparative evaluations of deep sea water's bioactivity.

Intraseasonal variability of sea level and circulation in the Gulf of Thailand: the role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Eric C. J.

2014-01-01

Intraseasonal variability of the tropical Indo-Pacific ocean is strongly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Shallow seas in this region, such as the Gulf of Thailand, act as amplifiers of the direct ocean response to surface wind forcing by efficient setup of sea level. Intraseasonal ocean variability in the Gulf of Thailand region is examined using statistical analysis of local tide gauge observations and surface winds. The tide gauges detect variability on intraseasonal time scales that is related to the MJO through its effect on local wind. The relationship between the MJO and the surface wind is strongly seasonal, being most vigorous during the monsoon, and direction-dependent. The observations are then supplemented with simulations of sea level and circulation from a fully nonlinear barotropic numerical ocean model (Princeton Ocean Model). The numerical model reproduces well the intraseasonal sea level variability in the Gulf of Thailand and its seasonal modulations. The model is then used to map the wind-driven response of sea level and circulation in the entire Gulf of Thailand. Finally, the predictability of the setup and setdown signal is discussed by relating it to the, potentially predictable, MJO index.

Analysis and modeling of the seasonal South China Sea temperature cycle using remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Twigt, Daniel J.; de Goede, Erik D.; Schrama, Ernst J. O.; Gerritsen, Herman

2007-10-01

The present paper describes the analysis and modeling of the South China Sea (SCS) temperature cycle on a seasonal scale. It investigates the possibility to model this cycle in a consistent way while not taking into account tidal forcing and associated tidal mixing and exchange. This is motivated by the possibility to significantly increase the model’s computational efficiency when neglecting tides. The goal is to develop a flexible and efficient tool for seasonal scenario analysis and to generate transport boundary forcing for local models. Given the significant spatial extent of the SCS basin and the focus on seasonal time scales, synoptic remote sensing is an ideal tool in this analysis. Remote sensing is used to assess the seasonal temperature cycle to identify the relevant driving forces and is a valuable source of input data for modeling. Model simulations are performed using a three-dimensional baroclinic-reduced depth model, driven by monthly mean sea surface anomaly boundary forcing, monthly mean lateral temperature, and salinity forcing obtained from the World Ocean Atlas 2001 climatology, six hourly meteorological forcing from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 dataset, and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) data. A sensitivity analysis of model forcing and coefficients is performed. The model results are quantitatively assessed against climatological temperature profiles using a goodness-of-fit norm. In the deep regions, the model results are in good agreement with this validation data. In the shallow regions, discrepancies are found. To improve the agreement there, we apply a SST nudging method at the free water surface. This considerably improves the model’s vertical temperature representation in the shallow regions. Based on the model validation against climatological in situ and SST data, we conclude that the seasonal temperature cycle for the deep SCS basin can be represented to a good degree. For shallow regions, the absence of tidal mixing and exchange has a clear impact on the model’s temperature representation. This effect on the large-scale temperature cycle can be compensated to a good degree by SST nudging for diagnostic applications.

Current Status and Future Plan of Arctic Sea Ice monitoring in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, J.; Park, J.

2016-12-01

Arctic sea ice is one of the most important parameters in climate. For monitoring of sea ice changes, the National Meteorological Satellite Center (NMSC) of Korea Metrological Administration has developed the "Arctic sea ice monitoring system" to retrieve the sea ice extent and surface roughness using microwave sensor data, and statistical prediction model for Arctic sea ice extent. This system has been implemented to the web site for real-time public service. The sea ice information can be retrieved using the spaceborne microwave sensor-Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/S). The sea ice information like sea ice extent, sea ice surface roughness, and predictive sea ice extent are produced weekly base since 2007. We also publish the "Analysis report of the Arctic sea ice" twice a year. We are trying to add more sea ice information into this system. Details of current status and future plan of Arctic sea ice monitoring and the methodology of the sea ice information retrievals will be presented in the meeting.

Variational data assimilation problem for the thermodynamics model with displaced pole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmuzin, Eugene; Agosgkov, Valery; Zakharova, Natalia

2017-04-01

The most versatile and promising technology for solving problems of monitoring and analysis of the natural environment is a four-dimensional variational data assimilation of observation data. The development of computational algorithms for the solution of data assimilation problems in geophysical hydrodynamics is important in the contemporary computation and informational science to improve the quality of long-term prediction by using the hydrodynamics sea model. These problems are applied to close and solve in practice the appropriate inverse problems of the geophysical hydrodynamics. In this work the variational data assimilation problems in the Baltic Sea water area with displaced pole were formulated and studied [1]. We assume, that the unique function which is obtained by observation data processing is the function and we permit that the function is known only on a part of considering area (for example, on a part of the Baltic Sea). Numerical experiments on restoring the ocean heat flux and obtaining solution of the system (temperature, salinity, velocity, and sea surface height) in the Baltic Sea primitive equation hydrodynamics model [2] with assimilation procedure were carried out. In the calculations we used daily sea surface temperature observation from Danish meteorological Institute, prepared on the basis of measurements of the radiometer (AVHRR, AATSR and AMSRE) and spectroradiometer (SEVIRI and MODIS). The spatial resolution of the model grid with respect to the horizontal variables is uniform on latitude (0.2 degree) and varies on longitude from 0.04 to 0.0004 degree . The results of the numerical experiments are presented. This study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project №16-01-00548) and project №14-11-00609 by the Russian Science Foundation. References: [1] Agoshkov V.I., Parmuzin E.I., Zakharova N.B., Zalesny V.B., Shutyaev V.P., Gusev A.V. Variational assimilation of observation data in the mathematical model of the Baltic Sea dynamics // Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling, 2015, V. 30, No. 4, PP. 203-212. [2] Zalesny V.B., Gusev A.V., Chernobay S.Yu., Aps R., Tamsalu R., Kujala P., Rytkönen J. The Baltic Sea circulation modelling and assessment of marine pollution, Russ. J. Numer. Analysis and Math. Modelling, 2014, V 29, No. 2, pp. 129-138.

Effect of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida.

PubMed

Langevin, Christian D; Zygnerski, Michael

2013-01-01

A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling of rates and variability of Holocene sea-level changes in the western North Atlantic and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashe, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Khan, N.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies over of both space and time. Prior to the instrumental period, the sea-level record depends upon geological reconstructions that contain vertical and temporal uncertainty. Spatio-temporal statistical models enable the interpretation of RSL and rates of change as well as the reconstruction of the entire sea-level field from such noisy data. Hierarchical models explicitly distinguish between a process level, which characterizes the spatio-temporal field, and a data level, by which sparse proxy data and its noise is recorded. A hyperparameter level depicts prior expectations about the structure of variability in the spatio-temporal field. Spatio-temporal hierarchical models are amenable to several analysis approaches, with tradeoffs regarding computational efficiency and comprehensiveness of uncertainty characterization. A fully-Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM), which places prior probability distributions upon the hyperparameters, is more computationally intensive than an empirical hierarchical model (EHM), which uses point estimates of hyperparameters, derived from the data [1]. Here, we assess the sensitivity of posterior estimates of relative sea level (RSL) and rates to different statistical approaches by varying prior assumptions about the spatial and temporal structure of sea-level variability and applying multiple analytical approaches to Holocene sea-level proxies along the Atlantic coast of North American and the Caribbean [2]. References: 1. N Cressie, Wikle CK (2011) Statistics for spatio-temporal data (John Wiley & Sons). 2. Kahn N et al. (2016). Quaternary Science Reviews (in revision).

An Assessment of Southern Ocean Water Masses and Sea Ice During 1988-2007 in a Suite of Interannual CORE-II Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Downes, Stephanie M.; Farneti, Riccardo; Uotila, Petteri; Griffies, Stephen M.; Marsland, Simon J.; Bailey, David; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne;

Modeling the influence of climate change on the mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Lamon, Lara; MacLeod, Matthew; Marcomini, Antonio; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2012-05-01

Climate forcing is forecasted to influence the Adriatic Sea region in a variety of ways, including increasing temperature, and affecting wind speeds, marine currents, precipitation and water salinity. The Adriatic Sea is intensively developed with agriculture, industry, and port activities that introduce pollutants to the environment. Here, we developed and applied a Level III fugacity model for the Adriatic Sea to estimate the current mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Sea, and to examine the effects of a climate change scenario on the distribution of these pollutants. The model's performance was evaluated for three PCB congeners against measured concentrations in the region using environmental parameters estimated from the 20th century climate scenario described in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC, and using Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. We find that modeled fugacities of PCBs in air, water and sediment of the Adriatic are in good agreement with observations. The model indicates that PCBs in the Adriatic Sea are closely coupled with the atmosphere, which acts as a net source to the water column. We used model experiments to assess the influence of changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation, marine currents, particulate organic carbon and air inflow concentrations forecast in the IPCC A1B climate change scenario on the mass balance of PCBs in the Sea. Assuming an identical PCBs' emission profile (e.g. use pattern, treatment/disposal of stockpiles, mode of entry), modeled fugacities of PCBs in the Adriatic Sea under the A1B climate scenario are higher because higher temperatures reduce the fugacity capacity of air, water and sediments, and because diffusive sources to the air are stronger. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extreme storm surge modelling in the North Sea. The role of the sea state, forcing frequency and spatial forcing resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, Nina; de Vries, Hylke; Drijfhout, Sybren; van den Brink, Henk; van Meijgaard, Erik; de Vries, Hans

2018-02-01

This study shows that storm surge model performance in the North Sea is mostly unaffected by the application of temporal variations of surface drag due to changes in sea state provided the choice of a suitable constant Charnock parameter in the sea-state-independent case. Including essential meteorological features on smaller scales and minimising interpolation errors by increasing forcing data resolution are shown to be more important for the improvement of model performance particularly at the high tail of the probability distribution. This is found in a modelling study using WAQUA/DCSMv5 by evaluating the influence of a realistic air-sea momentum transfer parameterization and comparing it to the influence of changes in the spatial and temporal resolution of the applied forcing fields in an effort to support the improvement of impact and climate analysis studies. Particular attention is given to the representation of extreme water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5 is forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from a set of different forcing fields, which either (i) include a wave-state-dependent Charnock parameter or (ii) apply a constant Charnock parameter ( α C h = 0.032) tuned for young sea states in the North Sea, but differ in their spatial and/or temporal resolution. Increasing forcing field resolution from roughly 79 to 12 km through dynamically downscaling can reduce the modelled low bias, depending on coastal station, by up to 0.25 m for the modelled extreme water levels with a 1-year return period and between 0.1 m and 0.5 m for extreme surge heights.

A parallel efficient partitioning algorithm for the statistical model of dynamic sea clutter at low grazing angle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tao; Wu, Zhensen; Linghu, Longxiang

2017-10-01

Study of characteristics of sea clutter is very important for signal processing of radar, detection of targets on sea surface and remote sensing. The sea state is complex at Low grazing angle (LGA), and it is difficult with its large irradiation area and a great deal simulation facets. A practical and efficient model to obtain radar clutter of dynamic sea in different sea condition is proposed, basing on the physical mechanism of interaction between electromagnetic wave and sea wave. The classical analysis method for sea clutter is basing on amplitude and spectrum distribution, taking the clutter as random processing model, which is equivocal in its physical mechanism. To achieve electromagnetic field from sea surface, a modified phase from facets is considered, and the backscattering coefficient is calculated by Wu's improved two-scale model, which can solve the statistical sea backscattering problem less than 5 degree, considering the effects of the surface slopes joint probability density, the shadowing function, the skewness of sea waves and the curvature of the surface on the backscattering from the ocean surface. We make the assumption that the scattering contribution of each facet is independent, the total field is the superposition of each facet in the receiving direction. Such data characters are very suitable to compute on GPU threads. So we can make the best of GPU resource. We have achieved a speedup of 155-fold for S band and 162-fold for Ku/Χ band on the Tesla K80 GPU as compared with Intel® Core™ CPU. In this paper, we mainly study the high resolution data, and the time resolution is millisecond, so we may have 10,00 time points, and we analyze amplitude probability density distribution of radar clutter.

Climate projection of synoptic patterns forming extremely high wind speed over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

2017-04-01

Frequency of extreme weather events is not very high, but their consequences for the human well-being may be hazardous. These seldom events are not always well simulated by climate models directly. Sometimes it is more effective to analyze numerical projection of large-scale synoptic event generating extreme weather. For example, in mid-latitude surface wind speed depends mainly on the sea level pressure (SLP) field - its configuration and horizontal pressure gradient. This idea was implemented for analysis of extreme wind speed events over the Barents Sea. The calendar of high surface wind speed V (10 m above the surface) was prepared for events with V exceeding 99th percentile value in the central part of the Barents Sea. Analysis of probability distribution function of V was carried out on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude) for the period 1981-2010. Storm wind events number was found to be 240 days. Sea level pressure field over the sea and surrounding area was selected for each storm wind event. For the climate of the future (scenario RCP8.5), projections of SLP from CMIP5 numerical experiments were used. More than 20 climate models results of projected SLP (2006-2100) over the Barents Sea were correlated with modern storm wind SLP fields. Our calculations showed the positive tendency of annual frequency of storm SLP patterns over the Barents Sea by the end of 21st century.

Iron Fertilization of the Southern Ocean: Regional Simulation and Analysis of C-Sequestration in the Ross Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kevin Arrigo

2012-03-13

A modified version of the dynamic 3-dimensional mesoscale Coupled Ice, Atmosphere, and Ocean model (CIAO) of the Ross Sea ecosystem has been used to simulate the impact of environmental perturbations upon primary production and biogenic CO2 uptake. The Ross Sea supports two taxonomically, and spatially distinct phytoplankton populations; the haptophyte Phaeocystis antarctica and diatoms. Nutrient utilization ratios predict that P. antarctica and diatoms will be driven to nitrate and phosphate limitation, respectively. Model and field data have confirmed that the Ross Sea is iron limited with only two-thirds of the macronutrients consumed by the phytoplankton by the end of themore » growing season. In this study, the CIAO model was improved to simulate a third macronutrient (phosphate), dissolved organic carbon, air-sea gas exchange, and the carbonate system. This enabled us to effectively model pCO2 and subsequently oceanic CO2 uptake via gas exchange, allowing investigations into the affect of alleviating iron limitation on both pCO2 and nutrient drawdown.« less

The Mediterranean Sea 1985-2007 re-analysis: validation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adani, Mario; Dobricic, Srdjan; Pinardi, Nadia

2010-05-01

Re-analyses are different from analyses because they are consistent for the whole period since the oceanic state estimates are produced without changes in the modelling assumptions and they are usually done with systems which are more advance then the available systems at the time of the observations collection. A fundamental part of a re-analysis system is the data assimilation scheme which minimizes the cost function penalizing the time-space misfits between the data and the numerical solutions, with the constraint of the model equations and their parameters. In this work we will compare ocean circulation estimates provided by pure simulation, a system in which the assimilation scheme is based on a sequential algorithm: Optimal Interpolation (OI) and a three-dimensional variational scheme (3dvar). The OGCM used in this work is based on OPA 8.1 code (Madec et al. 1998), which has been implemented in the Mediterranean Sea by Tonani et al.(2008). The model has 1/16th horizontal resolution and 71 unevenly spaced vertical levels. The present model formulation uses a realistic water flux with river runoffs which improves the realism of the simulation. One re-analysis is produced with the Reduced Order Optimal Interpolation (ROOI) (De Mey and Benkiran, 2002) and the other with OceanVar (Dobricic and Pinardi, 2008). The observational data sets assimilated for both reanalysis are: • the historical data archive of MedATLAS (Maillard et al., 2003) which contains vertical in situ profiles of temperature and salinity from bottles, XBT, MBT and CTD sensors • temperature and salinity profiles collected in the framework of MFSPP and MFSTEP projects • CLS along track satellite sea level anomaly data from ERS1, ERS2, Envisat, Topex/Poseidon, Jason1 satellites (Pujol and Larnicol,2005) Reanalyzed daily mean fields of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from Medspiration (Marullo et al., 2007) and the Delayed-Time operational product of CNR-ISAC have been used to relax the model SST. The Mean Dynamic Topography of (Dobricic, 2005) has been used for both experiments. The model is forced with a combined dataset of ECMWF analysis when available and ERA-15. The precipitations are monthly mean climatology of the NCEP re-analysis (Kistler et.al 2001), the river runoff data are monthly mean climatology from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) and from Raicic (1996) for the minor Adriatic Sea rivers. The assimilation schemes help in reducing the spin up time of the model by acting as a forcing inside the water column. Both re-analyses show significantly better results then the simulation reducing both bias and root mean square error even though the structure of the error remains almost the same of the simulation: the largest error for tracers is confined in the thermocline especially in summer, highlighting a problem in the mixing parameterization; the majors error for SLA is confined in the most dynamically active areas. Satellite altimetry observations result in a fundamental dataset to constrain model solution and since its homogeneity in the sampling they permits a consistent assessment of the model behaviour along the years which it is not possible from in-situ observations whose sampling is extremely inhomogeneous both in time and space. This study describes the development of modelling and data assimilation tools for the production of re-analysis for the entire Mediterranean Sea. In order to carry out a re-analysis two major steps were undertaken in this work. In the first, the general circulation model was upgraded to have the correct air-sea water fluxes. In the second, two assimilation schemes, one new and the other consolidated, were compared to show their impact on the quality of the re-analysis. The general circulation model used in this study is shown to be capable of reproducing quite accurately the ocean dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea. The results have shown that the model solution is in agreement with data and observations, even though some parameterizations of the model should be improved (i.e. heat flux and mixing processes). The new implementation of a realistic water flux, proposed in this study, has improved the model solution so that re-analysis is possible. The study of the re-analysis produced shows that both products are sufficiently accurate for appropriate climate studies. Both assimilation schemes show good capabilities in correcting the solutions provided by the dynamical model. Moreover it has been shown the ability of both systems in retaining this information and projecting it in the future. Eventually, even for very complex non linear systems, with millions of prognostic variables, the equality between the Sequential Kalman Filter Approach and the Variational one as been demonstrated.

Analysis of L-band radiometric data over the Mediterranean Sea from the SMOS Validation Rehearsal campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabarro, C.; Talone, M.; Font, J.

2009-04-01

L-band radiometric data obtained with a real aperture airborne radiometer during SMOS validation Rehearsal campaign (April-May 2008) over the NW Mediterranean Sea have been analysed. EMIRAD, a fully polarimetric radiometer developed by the Technical University of Denmark operating in the 1400 - 1427 MHz band, was mounted on board a Skyvan aircraft from the Helsinki University of Technology. Two antennas were used: one facing nadir with 37.6° full aperture at half-power; and one placed towards the rear of the aircraft at 40° zenith angle with 30.6° full aperture at half-power. Two transit flights over the sea from Marseille to Valencia (19 April 2008) and from Valencia to Marseille (3 May 2008) have been studied. Two meteorological and oceanographic buoys were moored 40 Km offshore in front of Tarragona and were overflown during these transits. Additionally, information on sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) was obtained from operational model outputs (Mediterranean Forecasting System - Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network) and wind speed from QuikSCAT. Measured brightness temperatures (Tb) have been compared with modelled Tb, using a semi-empirical emissivity model: Klein and Swift model is used to define the dielectric constant and Hollinger model for the rough sea emissivity contribution. Comparisons show that in general measured Tb variability fits with modelled variability, although a bias is observed in the aft V channel.

Temporal Arctic longwave surface emissivity feedbacks in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, C.; Feldman, D.; Huang, X.; Flanner, M.; Yang, P.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

We have investigated how the inclusion of realistic and consistent surface emissivity in both land-surface and atmospheric components of the CESM coupled-climate model affects a wide range of climate variables. We did this by replacing the unit emissivity values in RRTMG_LW for water, fine-grained snow, and desert scenes with spectral emissivity values, and by replacing broadband emissivity values in surface components with the Planck-curve weighted counterparts. We find that this harmonized treatment of surface emissivity within CESM can be important for reducing high-latitude temperature biases. We also find that short-term effects of atmospheric dynamics and spectral information need to be considered to understand radiative effects in higher detail, and are possible with radiative kernels computed for every grid and time point for the entire model integration period. We find that conventional climatological feedback calculations indicate that sea-ice emissivity feedback is positive in sign, but that the radiative effects of the difference in emissivity between frozen and unfrozen surfaces exhibit seasonal dependence. Furthermore, this seasonality itself exhibits meridional asymmetry due to differences in sea-ice response to climate forcing between the Arctic and the Antarctic. In the Arctic, this seasonal, temporally higher order analysis exhibits increasing outgoing surface emissivity radiative response in a warming climate. While the sea-ice emissivity feedback and seasonal sea-ice emissivity radiative response amplitudes are a few percent of surface albedo feedbacks, the feedback analysis methods outlined in this work demonstrate that spatially and temporally localized feedback analysis can give insight into the mechanisms at work on those scales which differ in amplitude and sign from conventional climatological analyses. We note that the inclusion of this realistic physics leads to improved agreement between CESM model results and Arctic surface temperatures and sea-ice trends. This reduction of persistent high-latitude model biases suggests that the current unrealistic representation of surface emissivity in model component radiation routines may be an important contributing factor to cold-pole biases.

Gypsum crystals observed in experimental and natural sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geilfus, N.-X.; Galley, R. J.; Cooper, M.; Halden, N.; Hare, A.; Wang, F.; Søgaard, D. H.; Rysgaard, S.

2013-12-01

gypsum has been predicted to precipitate in sea ice, it has never been observed. Here we provide the first report on gypsum precipitation in both experimental and natural sea ice. Crystals were identified by X-ray diffraction analysis. Based on their apparent distinguishing characteristics, the gypsum crystals were identified as being authigenic. The FREeZing CHEMistry (FREZCHEM) model results support our observations of both gypsum and ikaite precipitation at typical in situ sea ice temperatures and confirms the "Gitterman pathway" where gypsum is predicted to precipitate. The occurrence of authigenic gypsum in sea ice during its formation represents a new observation of precipitate formation and potential marine deposition in polar seas.

The Met Office Coupled Atmosphere/Land/Ocean/Sea-Ice Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, Daniel; Mirouze, Isabelle; King, Robert; Martin, Matthew; Hines, Adrian

2015-04-01

The Met Office has developed a weakly-coupled data assimilation (DA) system using the global coupled model HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 3). At present the analysis from separate ocean and atmosphere DA systems are combined to produced coupled forecasts. The aim of coupled DA is to produce a more consistent analysis for coupled forecasts which may lead to less initialisation shock and improved forecast performance. The HadGEM3 coupled model combines the atmospheric model UM (Unified Model) at 60 km horizontal resolution on 85 vertical levels, the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) at 25 km (at the equator) horizontal resolution on 75 vertical levels, and the sea-ice model CICE at the same resolution as NEMO. The atmosphere and the ocean/sea-ice fields are coupled every 1-hour using the OASIS coupler. The coupled model is corrected using two separate 6-hour window data assimilation systems: a 4D-Var for the atmosphere with associated soil moisture content nudging and snow analysis schemes on the one hand, and a 3D-Var FGAT for the ocean and sea-ice on the other hand. The background information in the DA systems comes from a previous 6-hour forecast of the coupled model. To isolate the impact of the coupled DA, 13-month experiments have been carried out, including 1) a full atmosphere/land/ocean/sea-ice coupled DA run, 2) an atmosphere-only run forced by OSTIA SSTs and sea-ice with atmosphere and land DA, and 3) an ocean-only run forced by atmospheric fields from run 2 with ocean and sea-ice DA. In addition, 5-day and 10-day forecast runs, have been produced from initial conditions generated by either run 1 or a combination of runs 2 and 3. The different results have been compared to each other and, whenever possible, to other references such as the Met Office atmosphere and ocean operational analyses or the OSTIA SST data. The performance of the coupled DA is similar to the existing separate ocean and atmosphere DA systems. This is despite the fact that the assimilation error covariances have not yet been tuned for coupled DA. In addition, the coupled model also exhibits some biases which do not affect the uncoupled models. An example is precipitation and run off errors affecting the ocean salinity. This of course impacts the performance of the ocean data assimilation. This does, however, highlight a particular benefit of data assimilation in that it can help to identify short term model biases by using, for example, the differences between the observations and model background (innovations) and the mean increments. Coupled DA has the distinct advantage that this gives direct information about the coupled model short term biases. By identifying the biases and developing solutions this will improve the short range coupled forecasts, and may also improve the coupled model on climate timescales.

Assimilation of TOPEX Sea Level Measurements with a Reduced-Gravity, Shallow Water Model of the Tropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, Ichiro

1995-01-01

Sea surface height variability measured by TOPEX is analyzed in the tropical Pacific Ocean by way of assimilation into a wind-driven, reduced-gravity, shallow water model using an approximate Kalman filter and smoother. The analysis results in an optimal fit of the dynamic model to the observations, providing it dynamically consistent interpolation of sea level and estimation of the circulation. Nearly 80% of the expected signal variance is accounted for by the model within 20 deg of the equator, and estimation uncertainty is substantially reduced by the voluminous observation. Notable features resolved by the analysis include seasonal changes associated with the North Equatorial Countercurrent and equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves. Significant discrepancies are also found between the estimate and TOPEX measurements, especially near the eastern boundary. Improvements in the estimate made by the assimilation are validated by comparisons with independent tide gauge and current meter observations. The employed filter and smoother are based on approximately computed estimation error covariance matrices, utilizing a spatial transformation and an symptotic approximation. The analysis demonstrates the practical utility of a quasi-optimal filter and smoother.

Space-time measurements of oceanic sea states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedele, Francesco; Benetazzo, Alvise; Gallego, Guillermo; Shih, Ping-Chang; Yezzi, Anthony; Barbariol, Francesco; Ardhuin, Fabrice

2013-10-01

Stereo video techniques are effective for estimating the space-time wave dynamics over an area of the ocean. Indeed, a stereo camera view allows retrieval of both spatial and temporal data whose statistical content is richer than that of time series data retrieved from point wave probes. We present an application of the Wave Acquisition Stereo System (WASS) for the analysis of offshore video measurements of gravity waves in the Northern Adriatic Sea and near the southern seashore of the Crimean peninsula, in the Black Sea. We use classical epipolar techniques to reconstruct the sea surface from the stereo pairs sequentially in time, viz. a sequence of spatial snapshots. We also present a variational approach that exploits the entire data image set providing a global space-time imaging of the sea surface, viz. simultaneous reconstruction of several spatial snapshots of the surface in order to guarantee continuity of the sea surface both in space and time. Analysis of the WASS measurements show that the sea surface can be accurately estimated in space and time together, yielding associated directional spectra and wave statistics at a point in time that agrees well with probabilistic models. In particular, WASS stereo imaging is able to capture typical features of the wave surface, especially the crest-to-trough asymmetry due to second order nonlinearities, and the observed shape of large waves are fairly described by theoretical models based on the theory of quasi-determinism (Boccotti, 2000). Further, we investigate space-time extremes of the observed stationary sea states, viz. the largest surface wave heights expected over a given area during the sea state duration. The WASS analysis provides the first experimental proof that a space-time extreme is generally larger than that observed in time via point measurements, in agreement with the predictions based on stochastic theories for global maxima of Gaussian fields.

The use of EuroCordex in marine climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

2017-04-01

The Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS, including the North Sea, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea) are of economic, environmental and cultural importance to a number of European countries. However, their representation by global climate models (GCMs) is very crude, due to their inability to represent the complex geometry and the absence of tides. Therefore, there is a need to employ dynamical downscaling methods when considering the potential impacts of climate change on the European (and other) shelf seas. Using a shelf seas model to dynamically downscale of the ocean component of the GCM is a well established method. While taking open ocean lateral boundary conditions from the GCM ocean is acceptable, using surface flux forcings from the GCM atmosphere is often problematic. The CORDEX project provides an important dataset of high spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric forcings, derived from 'parent' CMIP5 GCM simulations. We drive the NEMO shelf seas model with data from CMIP5 models and EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) data to produce a set of NWS climate projections. We require relatively high temporal resolution output, and run-off (for the river forcings), and so are limited to a subset of the available EURO-CORDEX RCMs. From these we select two CMIP5 GCMs with the same RCM with two emissions scenarios to give a minimum estimate of GCM model structural and emission scenario uncertainty. Other experiments allow an initial estimate of the uncertainty associated with the model structure of both the shelf seas and the RCM. Our analysis is focused on the uncertainty associated with the mean change in a number of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. Our work is part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and will inform the following UK Climate Change Risk Assessments, required as part of the Climate Change Act.

Assessing GPS Constellation Resiliency in an Urban Canyon Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

Taipei, Taiwan as his area of interest. His GPS constellation is modeled in the Satellite Toolkit ( STK ) where augmentation satellites can be added and...interaction. SEAS also provides a visual display of the simulation which is useful for verification and debugging portions of the analysis. Furthermore...entire system. Interpreting the model is aided by the visual display of the agents moving in the region of inter- est. Furthermore, SEAS collects

Deep Water Ocean Acoustics

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-17

under- ice scattering, bathymetric diffraction and the application of the ocean acoustic Parabolic Equation to infrasound. 2. Tasks a. Task 1...and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2): High-Resolution Global-Ocean and Sea- Ice Data Synthesis) model re- analysis for the years 1992 and 1993...The ECCO2 model is a state estimation based upon data syntheses obtained by least squares fitting of the global ocean and sea- ice configuration of

Analysis of tidal currents in the North Sea from shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vindenes, Håvard; Orvik, Kjell Arild; Søiland, Henrik; Wehde, Henning

2018-06-01

North Sea tidal currents are determined by applying harmonic analysis to ship-borne acoustic Doppler current profiler data recorded from 1999 to 2016, covering large areas of the northern North Sea. Direct current measurement data sets of this magnitude are rare in the otherwise well investigated North Sea, and thus it is a valuable asset in studying and expanding our understanding of its tidal currents and circulation in general. The harmonic analysis is applied to a least squares fit of the current observations at a set of knot points. Results from the harmonic analysis compare favorably to tidal parameters estimated from observations from moored instruments. The analysis shows that the tides are characterized by strong semi-diurnal component, with amplitudes of the principal Lunar constituent ranging from 1.6 cm/s in the Skagerrak to 67 cm/s in the Fair Isle Channel. Diurnal tides are found to be approximately one fifth the strength of the predominant semi-diurnal constituent. Output from a regional barotropic tide model compares well to tidal current determined from the harmonic analysis of the Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler data.

Using remote sensing imagery to monitoring sea surface pollution cause by abandoned gold-copper mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, H. M.; Ren, H.; Lee, Y. T.

2010-08-01

The Chinkuashih Benshen mine was the largest gold-copper mine in Taiwan before the owner had abandoned the mine in 1987. However, even the mine had been closed, the mineral still interacts with rain and underground water and flowed into the sea. The polluted sea surface had appeared yellow, green and even white color, and the pollutants had carried by the coast current. In this study, we used the optical satellite images to monitoring the sea surface. Several image processing algorithms are employed especial the subpixel technique and linear mixture model to estimate the concentration of pollutants. The change detection approach is also applied to track them. We also conduct the chemical analysis of the polluted water to provide the ground truth validation. By the correlation analysis between the satellite observation and the ground truth chemical analysis, an effective approach to monitoring water pollution could be established.

Treated cabin acoustic prediction using statistical energy analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoerkie, Charles A.; Ingraham, Steven T.; Moore, James A.

1987-01-01

The application of statistical energy analysis (SEA) to the modeling and design of helicopter cabin interior noise control treatment is demonstrated. The information presented here is obtained from work sponsored at NASA Langley for the development of analytic modeling techniques and the basic understanding of cabin noise. Utility and executive interior models are developed directly from existing S-76 aircraft designs. The relative importance of panel transmission loss (TL), acoustic leakage, and absorption to the control of cabin noise is shown using the SEA modeling parameters. It is shown that the major cabin noise improvement below 1000 Hz comes from increased panel TL, while above 1000 Hz it comes from reduced acoustic leakage and increased absorption in the cabin and overhead cavities.

Variation of Time Domain Failure Probabilities of Jack-up with Wave Return Periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idris, Ahmad; Harahap, Indra S. H.; Ali, Montassir Osman Ahmed

2018-04-01

This study evaluated failure probabilities of jack up units on the framework of time dependent reliability analysis using uncertainty from different sea states representing different return period of the design wave. Surface elevation for each sea state was represented by Karhunen-Loeve expansion method using the eigenfunctions of prolate spheroidal wave functions in order to obtain the wave load. The stochastic wave load was propagated on a simplified jack up model developed in commercial software to obtain the structural response due to the wave loading. Analysis of the stochastic response to determine the failure probability in excessive deck displacement in the framework of time dependent reliability analysis was performed by developing Matlab codes in a personal computer. Results from the study indicated that the failure probability increases with increase in the severity of the sea state representing a longer return period. Although the results obtained are in agreement with the results of a study of similar jack up model using time independent method at higher values of maximum allowable deck displacement, it is in contrast at lower values of the criteria where the study reported that failure probability decreases with increase in the severity of the sea state.

A 6,700 years sea-level record based on French Polynesian coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Botella, Albéric; Milne, Glenn; Fietzke, Jan; Dussouillez, Philippe

2015-04-01

Sea-level change during the Mid- to Late Holocene has a similar amplitude to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the 21st century providing a unique opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change and to reveal an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed using coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. Absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements is crucial for an accurate reconstruction of sea-level change. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level. Growth pattern analysis allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Tracking sea ice floes from the Lincoln Sea to Nares Strait and deriving large scale melt from coincident spring and summer (2009) aerial EM thickness surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, B. A.; Haas, C.; Beckers, J.; Hendricks, S.

2011-12-01

Satellite observations demonstrate a decreasing summer Arctic sea ice extent over the past ~40 years, as well as a smaller perennial sea ice zone, with a significantly accelerated decline in the last decade. Recent ice extent observations are significantly lower than predicted by any model employed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The disagreement of the modeled and observed results, along with the large variability of model results, can be in part attributed to a lack of consistent and long term sea ice mass balance observations for the High Arctic. This study presents the derivation of large scale (individual floe) seasonal sea ice mass balance in the Lincoln Sea and Nares Strait. Large scale melt estimates are derived by comparing aerial borne electromagnetic induction thickness surveys conducted in spring with surveys conducted in summer 2009. The comparison of coincident floes is ensured by tracking sea ice using ENIVSAT ASAR and MODIS satellite imagery. Only EM thickness survey sections of floes that were surveyed in both spring and summer are analyzed and the resulting modal thicknesses of the distributions, which represent the most abundant ice type, are compared to determine the difference in thickness and therefore total melt (snow+basal ice+surface ice melt). Preliminary analyses demonstrate a bulk (regional ice tracking) seasonal total thickness variability of 1.1m, Lincoln Sea modal thickness 3.7m (April, 2009) and Nares Strait modal thickness 2.6m (August 2009)(Fig1). More detailed floe tracking, in depth analysis of EM surveys and removal of deformed ridged/rafted sea ice (due to inaccuracies over deformed ice) will result in more accurate melt estimates for this region and will be presented. The physical structure of deformed sea ice and the footprint of the EM instrument typically underestimate the total thicknesses observed. Seasonal variations of sea ice properties can add additional uncertainty to the response of the EM instrument over deformed ridged/rafted sea ice. Here we will present additional analysis of the data comparing total thickness to ridge height that will provide some insight into the magnitude of seasonal discrepancies experienced by the EM instrument over deformed ice.

Contributions of the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components to the tropical Atlantic SST bias in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Z.; Lee, S. K.; Wang, C.; Kirtman, B. P.; Qiao, F.

2016-02-01

In order to identify and quantify intrinsic errors in the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and their contributions to the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias in CESM1, we propose a new method of diagnosis and apply it to a set of CESM1 simulations. Our analyses of the model simulations indicate that both the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of CESM1 contain large errors in the tropical Atlantic. When the two model components are fully coupled, the intrinsic errors in the two components emerge quickly within a year with strong seasonality in their growth rates. In particular, the ocean-sea ice model contributes significantly in forcing the eastern equatorial Atlantic warm SST bias in early boreal summer. Further analysis shows that the upper thermocline water underneath the eastern equatorial Atlantic surface mixed layer is too warm in a stand-alone ocean-sea ice simulation of CESM1 forced with observed surface flux fields, suggesting that the mixed layer cooling associated with the entrainment of upper thermocline water is too weak in early boreal summer. Therefore, although we acknowledge the potential importance of the westerly wind bias in the western equatorial Atlantic and the low-level stratus cloud bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic, both of which originate from the atmosphere-land model, we emphasize here that solving those problems in the atmosphere-land model alone does not resolve the equatorial Atlantic warm bias in CESM1.

Arctic spring ozone reduction associated with projected sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, C.; Sun, L.; Tomas, R. A.; Polvani, L. M.

2013-12-01

The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the stratosphere is investigated using the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), by prescribing the sea ice in the late 20th century and late 21st century, respectively. The localized Sea Surface Temperature (SST) change associated with sea ice melt is also included in the future run. Overall, the model simulates a negative annular-mode response in the winter and spring. In the stratosphere, polar vortex strengthens from February to April, peaking in March. Consistent with it, there is an anomalous cooling in the high-latitude stratosphere, and polar cap ozone reduction is up to 20 DU. Since the difference between these two runs lies only in the sea ice and localized SST in the Arctic, the stratospheric circulation and ozone changes can be attributed to the surface forcing. Eliassen-Palm analysis reveals that the upward propagation of planetary waves is suppressed in the spring as a consequence of sea ice loss. The reduction in propagation causes less wave dissipation and thus less zonal wind deceleration in the extratropical stratosphere.

How significant is the slope of the sea-side boundary for modelling seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walther, Marc; Graf, Thomas; Kolditz, Olaf; Liedl, Rudolf; Post, Vincent

2017-08-01

Application of numerical models is a common method to assess groundwater resources. The versatility of these models allows consideration of different levels of complexity, but the accuracy of the outcomes hinges upon a proper description of the system behaviour. In seawater intrusion assessment, the implementation of the sea-side boundary condition is of particular importance. We evaluate the influence of the slope of the sea-side boundary on the simulation results of seawater intrusion in a freshwater aquifer by employing a series of slope variations together with a sensitivity analysis by varying additional sensitive parameters (freshwater inflow and longitudinal and transverse dispersivities). Model results reveal a multi-dimensional dependence of the investigated variables with an increasing relevance of the sea-side boundary slope for seawater intrusion (decrease of up to 32%), submarine groundwater discharge zone (reduction of up to 55%), and turnover times (increase of up to 730%) with increasing freshwater inflow or dispersivity values.

Foehn-induced effects on dust pollution, frontal clouds and solar radiation in the Dead Sea valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, Pavel; Starobinets, Boris; Alpert, Pinhas; Kaplan, Michael

2017-04-01

The significant drying up of the Dead Sea over the past 40 years has led to an increase in an exposed area contributing to local dust pollution. Measurements show that, sometimes, in the Dead Sea valley, dust pollution can reach extreme concentrations up to several thousands of micrograms per cubic meters. Our analysis of a meteorological situation shows that a foehn phenomenon can be a causal factor for the aforementioned extreme local dust concentration. This foehn phenomenon creates strong warm and dry winds, which are accompanied by air turbulence and temperature inversion. In our study, foehn-induced effects on dust pollution, frontal clouds and solar radiation were analyzed over the Judean Mountains ( 1000 m) and over the Dead Sea valley (-420 m), using high-resolution numerical simulations and in-situ observations at meteorological stations located across the mountain ridge. An extreme dust episode occurring on March 22, 2013, was analyzed, which was characterized by measured surface dust concentrations of up to 7000 µg m-3 in the Dead Sea valley. We simulated this foehn phenomenon with the 3-km resolution COSMO-ART model. Our analysis has shown that the foehn phenomenon could be observed even over the relatively low Judean Mountains. This analysis was based on various meteorological, pyranometer, radar, and aerosol measurements together with high-resolution model data. In the Dead Sea valley, the maximum aerosol optical depth (AOD) did not coincide with the maximum surface dust concentration. This lack of coincidence indicates difficulties in using satellite-based AOD for initializing dust concentration within numerical forecast systems over this region with complex terrain. In the western Dead Sea valley, strong foehn winds of over 20 m/s were accompanied by maximal air turbulence leading to maximal local dust emissions. Thus, the model showed that, by creating significant turbulence, the foehn phenomenon intensified the saltation (bombardment) mechanism of local dust generation in the western Dead Sea valley. In addition, the foehn-induced pronounced temperature inversion trapped dust particles beneath this inversion. These two factors caused the measured extreme surface dust concentration in the Dead Sea valley on the specified day. Radar data on March 22 showed a passage of multi-layer frontal cloudiness through the area of the Dead Sea valley leading to a sharp drop in noon solar radiation. The strong descending airflow over the downwind side of the Judean Mountains significantly influenced the frontal cloudiness leading to the formation of a cloud-free band over the Dead Sea valley.

The study of the hydrological regime extreme effects of the Caspian Sea during the XX-XXI centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaitskaya, Natalia

2016-04-01

The Caspian Sea - the unique largest enclosed inland body of water on Earth. Significant periodic sea level fluctuations are a typical feature of the sea. In the XIX-XX centuries a number of comprehensive studies of the Caspian Sea was carried out. The results are published in the papers, monographs and climatic atlases. But a number of fundamental questions about the features of the hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea is still open: 1. How does the water circulation change during the level variations? 2. What is the effect of heterogeneity of evaporation from the water surface on the formation of the flow field in the conditions of long-term level changes? 3. How does the water salinity regime change depending on the sea level position, water circulation, river flow and different climatic influences? 4. What is the effect of extreme events (multi-hazards) (ice, storms, destruction of the coasts) on coastal infrastructure? In 2016, the project aims to study hydrological regime extreme effects of the Caspian Sea was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. Within this project all of the above problems will be solved. Geographic information system "Caspian Sea" for the storage and data processing, including a database of primary oceanographic information for the period of instrumental observations (1897-2013), cartographic database (1921-2011) and tools for multidimensional analysis of spatio-temporal information is the basis of the study. The scheme of interconnected hydrodynamic models (Caspian Sea MODel - Ocean Model - Wind wave model) was developed. The important factors are taken into account in the structure of the models: long-term and seasonal dynamics of the sea waves parameters, new long-term values of evaporation from the shallow waters areas of the Caspian Sea, water circulation. Schemes of general seasonal circulation of the Caspian Sea and the Northern Caspian at different positions of the sea level in XX-XXI centuries using interconnected models will be reconstructed. Forecast of seasonal water circulation for the most probable climate change scenarios in the future will be done. Conceptual scheme of calculations of the multi-hazards (ice storms, the destruction of the coasts) in the Caspian Sea was developed. The similar method of calculation was successfully applied to the prediction of natural hazards in the Sea of Azov. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No.16-35-60046 mol_a_dk.

Observing and modelling phytoplankton community structure in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, David A.; van der Molen, Johan; Hyder, Kieran; Bacon, John; Barciela, Rosa; Creach, Veronique; McEwan, Robert; Ruardij, Piet; Forster, Rodney

2017-03-01

Phytoplankton form the base of the marine food chain, and knowledge of phytoplankton community structure is fundamental when assessing marine biodiversity. Policy makers and other users require information on marine biodiversity and other aspects of the marine environment for the North Sea, a highly productive European shelf sea. This information must come from a combination of observations and models, but currently the coastal ocean is greatly under-sampled for phytoplankton data, and outputs of phytoplankton community structure from models are therefore not yet frequently validated. This study presents a novel set of in situ observations of phytoplankton community structure for the North Sea using accessory pigment analysis. The observations allow a good understanding of the patterns of surface phytoplankton biomass and community structure in the North Sea for the observed months of August 2010 and 2011. Two physical-biogeochemical ocean models, the biogeochemical components of which are different variants of the widely used European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), were then validated against these and other observations. Both models were a good match for sea surface temperature observations, and a reasonable match for remotely sensed ocean colour observations. However, the two models displayed very different phytoplankton community structures, with one better matching the in situ observations than the other. Nonetheless, both models shared some similarities with the observations in terms of spatial features and inter-annual variability. An initial comparison of the formulations and parameterizations of the two models suggests that diversity between the parameter settings of model phytoplankton functional types, along with formulations which promote a greater sensitivity to changes in light and nutrients, is key to capturing the observed phytoplankton community structure. These findings will help inform future model development, which should be coupled with detailed validation studies, in order to help facilitate the wider application of marine biogeochemical modelling to user and policy needs.

A characterisation of sea-breeze events in the eastern Cantabrian coast (Spain) from observational data and WRF simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrillaga, Jon A.; Yagüe, Carlos; Sastre, Mariano; Román-Cascón, Carlos

2016-11-01

The behaviour of the sea breeze along the north coast of Spain is investigated using observations of two topographically contrasting sites together with simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. An objective and systematic selection method is used to detect sea-breeze days from a database of two summer months. The direction and intensity of the sea breeze are significantly affected by the topography of the area; indeed, the estimated sea-breeze intensity shows an opposite relationship with the cross-shore temperature gradient for both sites. WRF simulations reproduce the onset of the sea breeze, but some characteristics are not adequately simulated: they generally overestimate the wind speed, smooth the temperature evolution and they do not represent the correct interaction with the terrain-induced flows. Additionally, four sensitivity experiments are performed with the WRF model varying the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) scheme, as well as the grid analysis nudging for an anomalous case study which is incorrectly filtered. As the two simulations considering nudging reproduce an unreal (not observed) sea breeze, this day turns out to be of great interest: it allows to evaluate the influence of the passage of the sea-breeze front (SBF) in other variables mainly related to turbulence. Furthermore, the best model scores are obtained for the PBL scheme that does not use a TKE closure.

Odor-conditioned rheotaxis of the sea lamprey: modeling, analysis and validation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Choi, Jongeun; Jean, Soo; Johnson, Nicholas S.; Brant, Cory O.; Li, Weiming

2013-01-01

Mechanisms for orienting toward and locating an odor source are sought in both biology and engineering. Chemical ecology studies have demonstrated that adult female sea lamprey show rheotaxis in response to a male pheromone with dichotomous outcomes: sexually mature females locate the source of the pheromone whereas immature females swim by the source and continue moving upstream. Here we introduce a simple switching mechanism modeled after odor-conditioned rheotaxis for the sea lamprey as they search for the source of a pheromone in a one-dimensional riverine environment. In this strategy, the females move upstream only if they detect that the pheromone concentration is higher than a threshold value and drifts down (by turning off control action to save energy) otherwise. In addition, we propose various uncertainty models such as measurement noise, actuator disturbance, and a probabilistic model of a concentration field in turbulent flow. Based on the proposed model with uncertainties, a convergence analysis showed that with this simplistic switching mechanism, the lamprey converges to the source location on average in spite of all such uncertainties. Furthermore, a slightly modified model and its extensive simulation results explain the behaviors of immature female lamprey near the source location.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

The worldwide semisubmersible drilling rig fleet is approaching retirement. But replacement is not an attractive option even though dayrates are reaching record highs. In 1991, Schlumberger Sedco Forex managers decided that an alternative might exist if regulators and insurers could be convinced to extend rig life expectancy through restoration. Sedco Forex chose their No. 704 semisubmersible, an 18-year North Sea veteran, to test their process. The first step was to determine what required restoration, meaning fatigue life analysis of each weld on the huge vessel. If inspected, the task would be unacceptably time-consuming and of questionable accuracy. Instead a suitemore » of computer programs modeled the stress seen by each weld, statistically estimated the sea states seen by the rig throughout its North Sea service and calibrated a beam-element model on which to run their computer simulations. The elastic stiffness of the structure and detailed stress analysis of each weld was performed with ANSYS, a commercially available finite-element analysis program. The use of computer codes to evaluate service life extension is described.« less

Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jianfen; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-05-01

Studies have indicated regime shifts in atmospheric circulation, and associated changes in extratropical storm tracks and Arctic storm activity, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and cyclone activity on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait by using a high resolution global ocean-sea ice model, MITgcm-ECCO2. The model was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter (in this study winter is defined as October-March and summer as April-September) storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

[Sea urchin embryo, DNA-damaged cell cycle checkpoint and the mechanisms initiating cancer development].

PubMed

Bellé, Robert; Le Bouffant, Ronan; Morales, Julia; Cosson, Bertrand; Cormier, Patrick; Mulner-Lorillon, Odile

2007-01-01

Cell division is an essential process for heredity, maintenance and evolution of the whole living kingdom. Sea urchin early development represents an excellent experimental model for the analysis of cell cycle checkpoint mechanisms since embryonic cells contain a functional DNA-damage checkpoint and since the whole sea urchin genome is sequenced. The DNA-damaged checkpoint is responsible for an arrest in the cell cycle when DNA is damaged or incorrectly replicated, for activation of the DNA repair mechanism, and for commitment to cell death by apoptosis in the case of failure to repair. New insights in cancer biology lead to two fundamental concepts about the very first origin of cancerogenesis. Cancers result from dysfunction of DNA-damaged checkpoints and cancers appear as a result of normal stem cell (NCS) transformation into a cancer stem cell (CSC). The second aspect suggests a new definition of "cancer", since CSC can be detected well before any clinical evidence. Since early development starts from the zygote, which is a primary stem cell, sea urchin early development allows analysis of the early steps of the cancerization process. Although sea urchins do not develop cancers, the model is alternative and complementary to stem cells which are not easy to isolate, do not divide in a short time and do not divide synchronously. In the field of toxicology and incidence on human health, the sea urchin experimental model allows assessment of cancer risk from single or combined molecules long before any epidemiologic evidence is available. Sea urchin embryos were used to test the worldwide used pesticide Roundup that contains glyphosate as the active herbicide agent; it was shown to activate the DNA-damage checkpoint of the first cell cycle of development. The model therefore allows considerable increase in risk evaluation of new products in the field of cancer and offers a tool for the discovery of molecular markers for early diagnostic in cancer biology. Prevention and early diagnosis are two decisive elements of human cancer therapy.

Extreme Sea Level Rise Event Linked to 2009-10 AMOC Downturn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.

2016-02-01

The coastal sea levels along the Northeast Coast of North America show significant year-to-year fluctuations in a general upward trend. Our analysis of long-term tide gauge records along the North American east coast identified an extreme sea-level rise (SLR) event during 2009-2010. Within this relatively brief two-year period, coastal sea levels north of New York City jumped by 100 mm. This magnitude of inter-annual SLR is unprecedented in the century-long tide gauge records, with statistical methods suggesting that it was a 1-in-850 year event. We show that this extreme SLR event was a combined effect of two physical factors. First, it was partly due to an observed 30% downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during 2009-2010. This AMOC slowdown caused a significant decline of the dynamic sea level gradient across the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current, thereby imparting a rise in coastal sea level. The second contributing factor to the extreme SLR event was due to a significant negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The associated easterly or northeasterly wind anomalies acted to push ocean waters towards the Northeast Coast through the Ekman transport, resulting in further rise in coastal sea levels. Sea level pressure anomalies also contributed to the extreme SLR event through the inverse barometer effect. To project future extreme sea levels along the east coast of North America during the 21st century, we make use of a suite of climate/Earth system models developed at GFDL and other modeling centers. These models included typical CMIP5-class models, as well as the newer climate models GFDL CM2.5 and CM2.6 with eddying oceans. In response to the increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, each of these models show a reduction in the AMOC. Given the observed connection between AMOC reduction and extreme coastal sea levels, the models thus project an increase in extreme SLR frequency on interannual time scales along the Northeast Coast of North America.

Arctic sea ice area in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles - variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, V. A.; Martin, T.; Behrens, L. K.; Latif, M.

2015-02-01

The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the model results exhibit considerable spread. The last generation of climate models from World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), when compared to the previous CMIP3 model ensemble and considering the whole Arctic, were found to be more consistent with the observed changes in sea ice extent during the recent decades. Some CMIP5 models project strongly accelerated (non-linear) sea ice loss during the first half of the 21st century. Here, complementary to previous studies, we compare results from CMIP3 and CMIP5 with respect to regional Arctic sea ice change. We focus on September and March sea ice. Sea ice area (SIA) variability, sea ice concentration (SIC) variability, and characteristics of the SIA seasonal cycle and interannual variability have been analysed for the whole Arctic, termed Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA changes to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) averaged temperature is investigated and several important dynamical links between SIA and natural climate variability involving the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea level pressure gradient (SLPG) in the western Barents Sea opening serving as an index of oceanic inflow to the Barents Sea are studied. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle and in the aforementioned dynamical links. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in the CMIP5 ensemble, particularly in summer. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes. Our analysis suggests that, on average, the sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in the CMIP5 models. The Arctic SIA variability response to anthropogenic forcing is different in CMIP3 and CMIP5. While the CMIP3 models simulate increased variability in March and September, the CMIP5 ensemble shows the opposite tendency. A noticeable improvement in the simulation of summer SIA by the CMIP5 models is often accompanied by worse results for winter SIA characteristics. The relation between SIA and mean AMOC changes is opposite in September and March, with March SIA changes being positively correlated with AMOC slowing. Finally, both CMIP ensembles demonstrate an ability to capture, at least qualitatively, important dynamical links of SIA to decadal variability of the AMOC, NAO and SLPG. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a large spread giving rise to high uncertainty.

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holt, Jason; Schrum, Corinna; Cannaby, Heather; Daewel, Ute; Allen, Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Bopp, Laurent; Butenschon, Momme; Fach, Bettina A.; Harle, James; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Salihoglu, Baris; Wakelin, Sarah

2016-01-01

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.

Modelling the habitat suitability of cetaceans: Example of the sperm whale in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praca, Emilie; Gannier, Alexandre; Das, Krishna; Laran, Sophie

2009-04-01

Cetaceans are mobile and spend long periods underwater. Because of this, modelling their habitat could be subject to a serious problem of false absence. Furthermore, extensive surveys at sea are time and money consuming, and presence-absence data are difficult to apply. This study compares the ability of two presence-absence and two presence-only habitat modelling methods and uses the example of the sperm whale ( Physeter macrocephalus) in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. The data consist of summer visual and acoustical detections of sperm whales, compiled between 1998 and 2005. Habitat maps were computed using topographical and hydrological eco-geographical variables. Four methods were compared: principal component analysis (PCA), ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA), generalized linear model (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). The evaluation of the models was achieved by calculating the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) of the models and their respective area under the curve (AUC). Presence-absence methods (GLM, AUC=0.70, and MARS, AUC=0.79) presented better AUC than presence-only methods (PCA, AUC=0.58, and ENFA, AUC=0.66), but this difference was not statistically significant, except between the MARS and the PCA models. The four models showed an influence of both topographical and hydrological factors, but the resulting habitat suitability maps differed. The core habitat on the continental slope was well highlighted by the four models, while GLM and MARS maps also showed a suitable habitat in the offshore waters. Presence-absence methods are therefore recommended for modelling the habitat suitability of cetaceans, as they seem more accurate to highlight complex habitat. However, the use of presence-only techniques, in particular ENFA, could be very useful for a first model of the habitat range or when important surveys at sea are not possible.

Can Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) be used to reconstruct palaeo-climate and sea-level histories?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.

2011-12-01

Reconstruction of palaeo-environmental conditions over long time periods is notoriously difficult, especially where there are limited or no proxy records from which to extract data. Application of landscape evolution models (LEMs) for palaeo-environmental reconstruction involves hindcast modeling, in which simulation scenarios are configured with specific model variables and parameters chosen to reflect a specific hypothesis of environmental change. In this form of modeling, the environmental time series utilized are considered credible when modeled and observed landscape metrics converge. Herein we account for the uncertainties involved in evaluating the degree to which the model simulations and observations converge using Monte Carlo analysis of reduced complexity `metamodels'. The technique is applied to a case study focused on a specific set of gullies found on the southwest coast of the Isle of Wight, UK. A key factor controlling the Holocene evolution of these coastal gullies is the balance between rates of sea-cliff retreat (driven by sea-level rise) and headwards incision caused by knickpoint migration (driven by the rate of runoff). We simulate these processes using a version of the GOLEM model that has been modified to represent sea-cliff retreat. A Central Composite Design (CCD) sampling technique was employed, enabling the trajectories of gully response to different combinations of driving conditions to be modeled explicitly. In some of these simulations, where the range of bedrock erodibility (0.03 to 0.04 m0.2 a-1) and rate of sea-level change (0.005 to 0.0059 m a-1) is tightly constrained, modeled gully forms conform closely to those observed in reality, enabling a suite of climate and sea-level change scenarios which plausibly explain the Holocene evolution of the Isle of Wight gullies to be identified.

Providing Real-time Sea Ice Modeling Support to the U.S. Coast Guard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allard, Richard; Dykes, James; Hebert, David; Posey, Pamela; Rogers, Erick; Wallcraft, Alan; Phelps, Michael; Smedstad, Ole Martin; Wang, Shouping; Geiszler, Dan

2016-04-01

The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) supported the U.S. Coast Guard Research Development Center (RDC) through a demonstration project during the summer and autumn of 2015. Specifically, a modeling system composed of a mesoscale atmospheric model, regional sea ice model, and regional wave model were loosely coupled to provide real-time 72-hr forecasts of environmental conditions for the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas. The system components included a 2-km regional Community Ice CodE (CICE) sea ice model, 15-km Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) atmospheric model, and a 5-km regional WAVEWATCH III wave model. The wave model utilized modeled sea ice concentration fields to incorporate the effects of sea ice on waves. The other modeling components assimilated atmosphere, ocean, and ice observations available from satellite and in situ sources. The modeling system generated daily 72-hr forecasts of synoptic weather (including visibility), ice drift, ice thickness, ice concentration and ice strength for missions within the economic exclusion zone off the coast of Alaska and a transit to the North Pole in support of the National Science Foundation GEOTRACES cruise. Model forecasts graphics were shared on a common web page with selected graphical products made available via ftp for bandwidth limited users. Model ice thickness and ice drift show very good agreement compared with Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Ice Mass Balance buoys. This demonstration served as a precursor to a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave-ice modeling system under development. National Ice Center (NIC) analysts used these model data products (CICE and COAMPS) along with other existing model and satellite data to produce the predicted 48-hr position of the ice edge. The NIC served as a liaison with the RDC and NRL to provide feedback on the model predictions. This evaluation provides a baseline analysis of the current models for future comparison studies with the fully coupled modeling system.

Data-Driven Modeling and Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrashov, Dmitri; Chekroun, Mickael; Ghil, Michael

2016-04-01

We present results of data-driven predictive analyses of sea ice over the main Arctic regions. Our approach relies on the Multilayer Stochastic Modeling (MSM) framework of Kondrashov, Chekroun and Ghil [Physica D, 2015] and it leads to probabilistic prognostic models of sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies on seasonal time scales. This approach is applied to monthly time series of state-of-the-art data-adaptive decompositions of SIC and selected climate variables over the Arctic. We evaluate the predictive skill of MSM models by performing retrospective forecasts with "no-look ahead" for up to 6-months ahead. It will be shown in particular that the memory effects included intrinsically in the formulation of our non-Markovian MSM models allow for improvements of the prediction skill of large-amplitude SIC anomalies in certain Arctic regions on the one hand, and of September Sea Ice Extent, on the other. Further improvements allowed by the MSM framework will adopt a nonlinear formulation and explore next-generation data-adaptive decompositions, namely modification of Principal Oscillation Patterns (POPs) and rotated Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA).

Investigating Response from Turbulent Boundary Layer Excitations on a Real Launch Vehicle using SEA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, Phillip; LaVerde,Bruce; Teague, David

2009-01-01

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) response has been fairly well anchored to test observations for Diffuse Acoustic Field (DAF) loading by others. Meanwhile, not many examples can be found in the literature anchoring the SEA vehicle panel response results to Turbulent Boundary Layer (TBL) fluctuating pressure excitations. This deficiency is especially true for supersonic trajectories such as those required by this nation s launch vehicles. Space Shuttle response and excitation data recorded from vehicle flight measurements during the development flights were used in a trial to assess the capability of the SEA tool to predict similar responses. Various known/measured inputs were used. These were supplemented with a range of assumed values in order to cover unknown parameters of the flight. This comparison is presented as "Part A" of the study. A secondary, but perhaps more important, objective is to provide more clarity concerning the accuracy and conservatism that can be expected from response estimates of TBL-excited vehicle models in SEA (Part B). What range of parameters must be included in such an analysis in order to land on the conservative side in response predictions? What is the sensitivity of changes in these input parameters on the results? The TBL fluid structure loading model used for this study is provided by the SEA module of the commercial code VA One.

A New Objective Technique for Verifying Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Manobianco, John; Lane, John E.; Immer, Christopher D.

2003-01-01

This report presents a new objective technique to verify predictions of the sea-breeze phenomenon over east-central Florida by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The Contour Error Map (CEM) technique identifies sea-breeze transition times in objectively-analyzed grids of observed and forecast wind, verifies the forecast sea-breeze transition times against the observed times, and computes the mean post-sea breeze wind direction and speed to compare the observed and forecast winds behind the sea-breeze front. The CEM technique is superior to traditional objective verification techniques and previously-used subjective verification methodologies because: It is automated, requiring little manual intervention, It accounts for both spatial and temporal scales and variations, It accurately identifies and verifies the sea-breeze transition times, and It provides verification contour maps and simple statistical parameters for easy interpretation. The CEM uses a parallel lowpass boxcar filter and a high-order bandpass filter to identify the sea-breeze transition times in the observed and model grid points. Once the transition times are identified, CEM fits a Gaussian histogram function to the actual histogram of transition time differences between the model and observations. The fitted parameters of the Gaussian function subsequently explain the timing bias and variance of the timing differences across the valid comparison domain. Once the transition times are all identified at each grid point, the CEM computes the mean wind direction and speed during the remainder of the day for all times and grid points after the sea-breeze transition time. The CEM technique performed quite well when compared to independent meteorological assessments of the sea-breeze transition times and results from a previously published subjective evaluation. The algorithm correctly identified a forecast or observed sea-breeze occurrence or absence 93% of the time during the two- month evaluation period from July and August 2000. Nearly all failures in CEM were the result of complex precipitation features (observed or forecast) that contaminated the wind field, resulting in a false identification of a sea-breeze transition. A qualitative comparison between the CEM timing errors and the subjectively determined observed and forecast transition times indicate that the algorithm performed very well overall. Most discrepancies between the CEM results and the subjective analysis were again caused by observed or forecast areas of precipitation that led to complex wind patterns. The CEM also failed on a day when the observed sea- breeze transition affected only a very small portion of the verification domain. Based on the results of CEM, the RAMS tended to predict the onset and movement of the sea-breeze transition too early and/or quickly. The domain-wide timing biases provided by CEM indicated an early bias on 30 out of 37 days when both an observed and forecast sea breeze occurred over the same portions of the analysis domain. These results are consistent with previous subjective verifications of the RAMS sea breeze predictions. A comparison of the mean post-sea breeze winds indicate that RAMS has a positive wind-speed bias for .all days, which is also consistent with the early bias in the sea-breeze transition time since the higher wind speeds resulted in a faster inland penetration of the sea breeze compared to reality.

The Met Office Coupled Atmosphere/Land/Ocean/Sea-Ice Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, Daniel; Mirouze, Isabelle; Martin, Matthew; Hines, Adrian; Guiavarch, Catherine; Shelly, Ann

2014-05-01

The Met Office has developed a weakly-coupled data assimilation (DA) system using the global coupled model HADGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 3). This model combines the atmospheric model UM (Unified Model) at 60 km horizontal resolution on 85 vertical levels, the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean) at 25 km (at the equator) horizontal resolution on 75 vertical levels, and the sea-ice model CICE at the same resolution as NEMO. The atmosphere and the ocean/sea-ice fields are coupled every 1-hour using the OASIS coupler. The coupled model is corrected using two separate 6-hour window data assimilation systems: a 4D-Var for the atmosphere with associated soil moisture content nudging and snow analysis schemes on the one hand, and a 3D-Var FGAT for the ocean and sea-ice on the other hand. The background information in the DA systems comes from a previous 6-hour forecast of the coupled model. To show the impact of coupled DA, one-month experiments have been carried out, including 1) a full atmosphere/land/ocean/sea-ice coupled DA run, 2) an atmosphere-only run forced by OSTIA SSTs and sea-ice with atmosphere and land DA, and 3) an ocean-only run forced by atmospheric fields from run 2 with ocean and sea-ice DA. In addition, 5-day forecast runs, started twice a day, have been produced from initial conditions generated by either run 1 or a combination of runs 2 and 3. The different results have been compared to each other and, whenever possible, to other references such as the Met Office atmosphere and ocean operational analyses or the OSTIA data. These all show the coupled DA system functioning well. Evidence of imbalances and initialisation shocks has also been looked for.

Assessment of Managed Aquifer Recharge Site Suitability Using a GIS and Modeling.

PubMed

Russo, Tess A; Fisher, Andrew T; Lockwood, Brian S

2015-01-01

We completed a two-step regional analysis of a coastal groundwater basin to (1) assess regional suitability for managed aquifer recharge (MAR), and (2) quantify the relative impact of MAR activities on groundwater levels and sea water intrusion. The first step comprised an analysis of surface and subsurface hydrologic properties and conditions, using a geographic information system (GIS). Surface and subsurface data coverages were compiled, georeferenced, reclassified, and integrated (including novel approaches for combining related datasets) to derive a spatial distribution of MAR suitability values. In the second step, results from the GIS analysis were used with a regional groundwater model to assess the hydrologic impact of potential MAR placement and operating scenarios. For the region evaluated in this study, the Pajaro Valley Groundwater Basin, California, GIS results suggest that about 7% (15 km2) of the basin may be highly suitable for MAR. Modeling suggests that simulated MAR projects placed near the coast help to reduce sea water intrusion more rapidly, but these projects also result in increased groundwater flows to the ocean. In contrast, projects placed farther inland result in more long-term reduction in sea water intrusion and less groundwater flowing to the ocean. This work shows how combined GIS analysis and modeling can assist with regional water supply planning, including evaluation of options for enhancing groundwater resources. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

Arctic energy budget in relation to sea-ice variability on monthly to annual time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krikken, Folmer; Hazeleger, Wilco

2015-04-01

The strong decrease in Arctic sea-ice in recent years has triggered a strong interest in Arctic sea-ice predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Hence, it is key to understand physical processes that provide enhanced predictability beyond persistence of sea ice anomalies. The authors report on an analysis of natural variability of Arctic sea-ice from an energy budget perspective, using 15 CMIP5 climate models, and comparing these results to atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses data. We quantify the persistence of sea ice anomalies and the cross-correlation with the surface and top energy budget components. The Arctic energy balance components primarily indicate the important role of the seasonal sea-ice albedo feedback, in which sea-ice anomalies in the melt season reemerge in the growth season. This is a robust anomaly reemergence mechanism among all 15 climate models. The role of ocean lies mainly in storing heat content anomalies in spring, and releasing them in autumn. Ocean heat flux variations only play a minor role. The role of clouds is further investigated. We demonstrate that there is no direct atmospheric response of clouds to spring sea-ice anomalies, but a delayed response is evident in autumn. Hence, there is no cloud-ice feedback in late spring and summer, but there is a cloud-ice feedback in autumn, which strengthens the ice-albedo feedback. Anomalies in insolation are positively correlated with sea-ice variability. This is primarily a result of reduced multiple-reflection of insolation due to an albedo decrease. This effect counteracts the sea-ice albedo effect up to 50%. ERA-Interim and ORAS4 confirm the main findings from the climate models.

Axial Crushing of Thin-Walled Columns with Octagonal Section: Modeling and Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yucheng; Day, Michael L.

This chapter focus on numerical crashworthiness analysis of straight thinwalled columns with octagonal cross sections. Two important issues in this analysis are demonstrated here: computer modeling and crashworthiness design. In the first part, this chapter introduces a method of developing simplified finite element (FE) models for the straight thin-walled octagonal columns, which can be used for the numerical crashworthiness analysis. Next, this chapter performs a crashworthiness design for such thin-walled columns in order to maximize their energy absorption capability. Specific energy absorption (SEA) is set as the design objective, side length of the octagonal cross section and wall thickness are selected as design variables, and maximum crushing force (Pm) occurs during crashes is set as design constraint. Response surface method (RSM) is employed to formulate functions for both SEA and Pm.

Regional Sea Level Changes and Projections over North Pacific Driven by Air-sea interaction and Inter-basin Teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Zhu, J.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

After the launch of the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite since 1992, a series of regional sea level changes have been observed. The northwestern Pacific is among the most rapid sea-level-rise regions all over the world. The rising peak occurs around 40°N, with the value reaching 15cm in the past two decades. Moreover, when investigating the projection of global sea level changes using CMIP5 rcp simulations, we found that the northwestern Pacific remains one of the most rapid sea-level-rise regions in the 21st century. To investigate the physical dynamics of present and future sea level changes over the Pacific, we performed a series of numerical simulations with a hierarchy of climate models, including earth system model, ocean model, and atmospheric models, with different complexity. Simulation results indicate that this regional sea level change during the past two decades is mainly caused by the shift of the Kuroshio, which is largely driven by the surface wind anomaly associated with an intensified and northward shifted north Pacific sub-tropical high. Further analysis and simulations show that these changes of sub-tropical high can be primarily attributed to the regional SST forcing from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the remote SST forcings from the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. In the rcp scenario, on the other hand, two processes are crucial. Firstly, the meridional temperature SST gradient drives a northward wind anomaly across the equator, raising the sea level all over the North Pacific. Secondly, the atmospheric circulation changes around the sub-tropical Pacific further increase the sea level of the North Western Pacific. The coastal region around the Northwest Pacific is the most densely populated region around the world, therefore more attention must be paid to the sea level changes over this region, as suggested by our study.

Simulation of nitrate reduction in groundwater - An upscaling approach from small catchments to the Baltic Sea basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, A. L.; Donnelly, C.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Karlsson, I. B.

2018-01-01

This paper describes a modeling approach proposed to simulate the impact of local-scale, spatially targeted N-mitigation measures for the Baltic Sea Basin. Spatially targeted N-regulations aim at exploiting the considerable spatial differences in the natural N-reduction taking place in groundwater and surface water. While such measures can be simulated using local-scale physically-based catchment models, use of such detailed models for the 1.8 million km2 Baltic Sea basin is not feasible due to constraints on input data and computing power. Large-scale models that are able to simulate the Baltic Sea basin, on the other hand, do not have adequate spatial resolution to simulate some of the field-scale measures. Our methodology combines knowledge and results from two local-scale physically-based MIKE SHE catchment models, the large-scale and more conceptual E-HYPE model, and auxiliary data in order to enable E-HYPE to simulate how spatially targeted regulation of agricultural practices may affect N-loads to the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the use of E-HYPE with this upscaling methodology enables the simulation of the impact on N-loads of applying a spatially targeted regulation at the Baltic Sea basin scale to the correct order-of-magnitude. The E-HYPE model together with the upscaling methodology therefore provides a sound basis for large-scale policy analysis; however, we do not expect it to be sufficiently accurate to be useful for the detailed design of local-scale measures.

Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and its application to habitat sustainability for endangered species in the San Francisco Estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Thorne, Karen M.; Casazza, Michael L.; Overton, Cory T.; Callaway, John C.; Takekawa, John Y.

2014-01-01

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.

The Prognostic Accuracy of Suggested Predictors of Failure of Medical Management in Patients With Nontuberculous Spinal Epidural Abscess.

PubMed

Stratton, Alexandra; Faris, Peter; Thomas, Kenneth

2018-05-01

Retrospective cohort study. To test the external validity of the 2 published prediction criteria for failure of medical management in patients with spinal epidural abscess (SEA). Patients with SEA over a 10-year period at a tertiary care center were identified using ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision) diagnostic codes; electronic and paper charts were reviewed. The incidence of SEA and the proportion of patients with SEA that were treated medically were calculated. The rate of failure of medical management was determined. The published prediction models were applied to our data to determine how predictive they were of failure in our cohort. A total of 550 patients were identified using ICD-10 codes, 160 of whom had a magnetic resonance imaging-confirmed diagnosis of SEA. The incidence of SEA was 16 patients per year. Seventy-five patients were found to be intentionally managed medically and were included in the analysis. Thirteen of these 75 patients failed medical management (17%). Based on the published prediction criteria, 26% (Kim et al) and 45% (Patel et al) of our patients were expected to fail. Published prediction models for failure of medical management of SEA were not valid in our cohort. However, once calibrated to our cohort, Patel's model consisting of positive blood culture, presence of diabetes, white blood cells >12.5, and C-reactive protein >115 was the better model for our data.

Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

System Architecture Modeling for Technology Portfolio Management using ATLAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Robert W.; O'Neil, Daniel A.

2006-01-01

Strategic planners and technology portfolio managers have traditionally relied on consensus-based tools, such as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD) in planning the funding of technology development. While useful to a certain extent, these tools are limited in the ability to fully quantify the impact of a technology choice on system mass, system reliability, project schedule, and lifecycle cost. The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) aims to provide strategic planners a decision support tool for analyzing technology selections within a Space Exploration Architecture (SEA). Using ATLAS, strategic planners can select physics-based system models from a library, configure the systems with technologies and performance parameters, and plan the deployment of a SEA. Key parameters for current and future technologies have been collected from subject-matter experts and other documented sources in the Technology Tool Box (TTB). ATLAS can be used to compare the technical feasibility and economic viability of a set of technology choices for one SEA, and compare it against another set of technology choices or another SEA. System architecture modeling in ATLAS is a multi-step process. First, the modeler defines the system level requirements. Second, the modeler identifies technologies of interest whose impact on an SEA. Third, the system modeling team creates models of architecture elements (e.g. launch vehicles, in-space transfer vehicles, crew vehicles) if they are not already in the model library. Finally, the architecture modeler develops a script for the ATLAS tool to run, and the results for comparison are generated.

Hourly changes in sea surface salinity in coastal waters recorded by Geostationary Ocean Color Imager

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Rongjie; Zhang, Jie; Yao, Haiyan; Cui, Tingwei; Wang, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Wu, Lingjuan; An, Jubai

2017-09-01

In this study, we monitored hourly changes in sea surface salinity (SSS) in turbid coastal waters from geostationary satellite ocean color images for the first time, using the Bohai Sea as a case study. We developed a simple multi-linear statistical regression model to retrieve SSS data from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) based on an in situ satellite matched-up dataset (R2 = 0.795; N = 41; Range: 26.4 to 31.9 psμ). The model was then validated using independent continuous SSS measurements from buoys, with the average percentage difference of 0.65%. The model was applied to GOCI images from the dry season during an astronomical tide to characterize hourly changes in SSS in the Bohai Sea. We found that the model provided reasonable estimates of the hourly changes in SSS and that trends in the modeled and measured data were similar in magnitude and direction (0.43 vs 0.33 psμ, R2 = 0.51). There were clear diurnal variations in the SSS of the Bohai Sea, with a regional average of 0.455 ± 0.079 psμ (0.02-3.77 psμ). The magnitude of the diurnal variations in SSS varied spatially, with large diurnal variability in the nearshore, particularly in the estuary, and small variability in the offshore area. The model for the riverine area was based on the inverse correlation between SSS and CDOM absorption. In the offshore area, the water mass of the North Yellow Sea, characterized by high SSS and low CDOM concentrations, dominated. Analysis of the driving mechanisms showed that the tidal current was the main control on hourly changes in SSS in the Bohai Sea.

Sea surface temperature anomalies driven by oceanic local forcing in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silveira, Isabel Porto; Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi

2014-03-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly events in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) were investigated through wavelet analysis and numerical modeling. Wavelet analysis was applied to recognize the main spectral signals of SST anomaly events in the BMC and in the Drake Passage as a first attempt to link middle and high latitudes. The numerical modeling approach was used to clarify the local oceanic dynamics that drive these anomalies. Wavelet analysis pointed to the 8-12-year band as the most energetic band representing remote forcing between high to middle latitudes. Other frequencies observed in the BMC wavelet analysis indicate that part of its variability could also be forced by low-latitude events, such as El Niño. Numerical experiments carried out for the years of 1964 and 1992 (cold and warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases) revealed two distinct behaviors that produced negative and positive sea surface temperature anomalies on the BMC region. The first behavior is caused by northward cold flow, Río de la Plata runoff, and upwelling processes. The second behavior is driven by a southward excursion of the Brazil Current (BC) front, alterations in Río de la Plata discharge rates, and most likely by air-sea interactions. Both episodes are characterized by uncoupled behavior between the surface and deeper layers.

The Sea-Ice Floe Size Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stern, H. L., III; Schweiger, A. J. B.; Zhang, J.; Steele, M.

2017-12-01

The size distribution of ice floes in the polar seas affects the dynamics and thermodynamics of the ice cover and its interaction with the ocean and atmosphere. Ice-ocean models are now beginning to include the floe size distribution (FSD) in their simulations. In order to characterize seasonal changes of the FSD and provide validation data for our ice-ocean model, we calculated the FSD in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas over two spring-summer-fall seasons (2013 and 2014) using more than 250 cloud-free visible-band scenes from the MODIS sensors on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, identifying nearly 250,000 ice floes between 2 and 30 km in diameter. We found that the FSD follows a power-law distribution at all locations, with a seasonally varying exponent that reflects floe break-up in spring, loss of smaller floes in summer, and the return of larger floes after fall freeze-up. We extended the results to floe sizes from 10 m to 2 km at selected time/space locations using more than 50 high-resolution radar and visible-band satellite images. Our analysis used more data and applied greater statistical rigor than any previous study of the FSD. The incorporation of the FSD into our ice-ocean model resulted in reduced sea-ice thickness, mainly in the marginal ice zone, which improved the simulation of sea-ice extent and yielded an earlier ice retreat. We also examined results from 17 previous studies of the FSD, most of which report power-law FSDs but with widely varying exponents. It is difficult to reconcile the range of results due to different study areas, seasons, and methods of analysis. We review the power-law representation of the FSD in these studies and discuss some mathematical details that are important to consider in any future analysis.

Sea Fighter Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

which is used by the model to drive the normal activities of the crew (Figure C.1-2). These routines consist of a sequential list of high- level...separately. Figure C.1-3: Resources & Logic Sheet C.1.1.4 Scenario The scenario that is performed during a model run is a sequential list of all...were marked with a white fore and aft lineup stripe on both landing spots. Current Sea Fighter design does not provide a hangar; however, there

Undergraduate Research From Start to Finish in a SEA Semester

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavender, K.; Joyce, P.; Graziano, L.; Harris, S.; Jaroslow, G.; Lea, C.; Schell, J.; Witting, J.

2005-12-01

Undergraduates in the 12-week SEA Semester program at the Sea Education Association (SEA) carry out the entire scientific research process, from conception of a testable scientific question to final presentation of results from data they collect on a six-week research cruise. SEA is uniquely positioned to direct undergraduates in oceanography research projects as diverse as the students that propose them, from the curious non-science major to the student wishing to continue their research at their home institution (i.e. for a senior thesis project). Upon arrival at SEA''s campus in Woods Hole, MA, students are challenged to design a research project they will carry out at sea. They are guided by faculty in reading and discussing primary scientific literature, formulating a research question, and describing a specific data collection and analysis plan to be carried out at sea, culminating in a written research proposal that is defended orally. In developing their project students have access not only to the SEA faculty, but also to the many resources of the larger scientific community of Woods Hole. During the six-week sea component students participate in all aspects of data collection, analysis, and interpretation aboard one of SEA's state-of-the-art oceanographic research vessels. Before the end of the program each student presents their final results in both an oral presentation and a written research paper. The SEA Semester model gives students the opportunity to take complete ownership of a research project, and provides access to cutting-edge research capabilities both onshore and at sea. Examples of recent student research projects will be presented. SEA has been simultaneously developing its undergraduate research program and collecting an extensive historical oceanographic database since 1971. Students are encouraged to incorporate these data in long time series analysis projects, and data are also available to outside researchers. Collaborations with research scientists enhance the educational program, and provide opportunities for ship-of-opportunity sampling in remote locations. There are currently more than 7000 alumni of SEA Semester, and SEA alums are associated with all major centers of oceanographic research in the United States.

Two-dimensional Numerical Models of Accretionary Wedges Deformation in Response to Subduction and Obduction: Evidence from the Middle Part of the Manila Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, L.; Ding, W.; Chen, L.; Gerya, T.

2016-12-01

The Manila Trench is located at the eastern boundary of the South China Sea (SCS). It was created by the subduction of the South China Sea Plate beneath the Philippine Sea Plate since the early Neogene, and also influenced by the northwestern movement of the Philippine Sea Plate. There is wide discussion whether the dual-subduction and widespread seamounts in the South China Sea would have play important roles in the 'S-shaped' geometry and the different diving angle along the Manila Trench. Multi-beam tectono-geomorphological studies on the accretionary wedges have suggested that: (1) the stress direction of the subduction along the middle part of the Manila Trench, between 17o and 18 o N, is NW55 o; (2) The Manila Trench is actually caused by obduction due to the northwestern movement of the Philippine Sea Plate. Although the NW 55 o stress direction has been supported by detailed analysis on the trend of the folds, thrust faults, extension fractures and large sea-floor canyon, its obduction-origin is purely based on regional structure. Here we use 2D numerical modeling experiments to investigate the deformation style of accretionary wedge in response to the seamounts subduction and obduction, and provide new insights into the mechanism responsible for the Luzon obduction along the Manila Trench. Our preliminary results show that: (1) the accretionary wedge is eroded faster in subduction model; (2) the velocity field direction of the slab differs in two models at the beginning of seamount subduction, which is vertical in obduction model, but oblique in subduction model; (3) both sides of the accretionary wedge deform strongly in subduction model, whereas in obduction model only the leading edge shows intensive deformation. Further modelling will focus on other parts of the Manila Trench with different slab age and subduction velocity to see their tectonic influences on the accretionary wedges.

Time-Frequency Analyses of Tide-Gauge Sensor Data

PubMed Central

Erol, Serdar

2011-01-01

The real world phenomena being observed by sensors are generally non-stationary in nature. The classical linear techniques for analysis and modeling natural time-series observations are inefficient and should be replaced by non-linear techniques of whose theoretical aspects and performances are varied. In this manner adopting the most appropriate technique and strategy is essential in evaluating sensors’ data. In this study, two different time-series analysis approaches, namely least squares spectral analysis (LSSA) and wavelet analysis (continuous wavelet transform, cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence algorithms as extensions of wavelet analysis), are applied to sea-level observations recorded by tide-gauge sensors, and the advantages and drawbacks of these methods are reviewed. The analyses were carried out using sea-level observations recorded at the Antalya-II and Erdek tide-gauge stations of the Turkish National Sea-Level Monitoring System. In the analyses, the useful information hidden in the noisy signals was detected, and the common features between the two sea-level time series were clarified. The tide-gauge records have data gaps in time because of issues such as instrumental shortcomings and power outages. Concerning the difficulties of the time-frequency analysis of data with voids, the sea-level observations were preprocessed, and the missing parts were predicted using the neural network method prior to the analysis. In conclusion the merits and limitations of the techniques in evaluating non-stationary observations by means of tide-gauge sensors records were documented and an analysis strategy for the sequential sensors observations was presented. PMID:22163829

Time-frequency analyses of tide-gauge sensor data.

PubMed

Erol, Serdar

2011-01-01

The real world phenomena being observed by sensors are generally non-stationary in nature. The classical linear techniques for analysis and modeling natural time-series observations are inefficient and should be replaced by non-linear techniques of whose theoretical aspects and performances are varied. In this manner adopting the most appropriate technique and strategy is essential in evaluating sensors' data. In this study, two different time-series analysis approaches, namely least squares spectral analysis (LSSA) and wavelet analysis (continuous wavelet transform, cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence algorithms as extensions of wavelet analysis), are applied to sea-level observations recorded by tide-gauge sensors, and the advantages and drawbacks of these methods are reviewed. The analyses were carried out using sea-level observations recorded at the Antalya-II and Erdek tide-gauge stations of the Turkish National Sea-Level Monitoring System. In the analyses, the useful information hidden in the noisy signals was detected, and the common features between the two sea-level time series were clarified. The tide-gauge records have data gaps in time because of issues such as instrumental shortcomings and power outages. Concerning the difficulties of the time-frequency analysis of data with voids, the sea-level observations were preprocessed, and the missing parts were predicted using the neural network method prior to the analysis. In conclusion the merits and limitations of the techniques in evaluating non-stationary observations by means of tide-gauge sensors records were documented and an analysis strategy for the sequential sensors observations was presented.

Whitecaps, sea-salt aerosols, and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anguelova, Magdalena Dimitrova

Oceanic whitecaps are the major source of sea-salt aerosols. Because these aerosols are dominant in remote marine air, they control the radiative properties of the clean background atmosphere by scattering sunlight, changing cloud properties and lifetime, and providing media for chemical reactions. Including sea-salt effects in climate models improves predictions, but simulating their generation is first necessary. To make the sea-salt generation function currently used in climate models more relevant for aerosol investigations, this study proposes two modifications. First, the conventional relation between whitecap coverage, W, and the 10-meter wind speed, U10, used in typical generation functions is expanded to include additional factors that affect whitecaps and sea-salt aerosol formation. Second, the sea-salt generation function is extended to smaller sizes; sea-salt aerosol with initial radii from 0.4 to 20 mum can now be modeled. To achieve these goals, this thesis develops a new method for estimating whitecap coverage on a global scale using satellite measurements of the brightness temperature of the ocean surface. Whitecap coverage evaluated with this method incorporates the effects of atmospheric stability, sea-surface temperature, salinity, wind fetch, wind duration, and the amount of surface-active material. Assimilating satellite-derived values for whitecap coverage in the sea-salt generation function incorporates the effects of all environmental factors on sea-salt production and predicts realistic sea-salt aerosol loadings into the atmosphere. An extensive database of whitecap coverage and sea-salt aerosol fluxes has been compiled with the new method and is used to investigate their spatial and temporal characteristics. The composite effect of all environmental factors suggests a more uniform latitudinal distribution of whitecaps and sea-salt aerosols than that predicted from wind speed alone. The effect of sea-surface temperature, TS, is parameterized for the first time using regression analysis. The resulting parameterization W( U10, TS) is a better predictor of whitecap coverage than the conventional W(U 10) relation. This thesis also considers the contribution of oceanic whitecaps to ocean albedo and CO2 transfer and evaluates the direct effect of sea-salt aerosols on climate, the sea-salt contribution to CCN formation, and the role of sea-salt aerosols in atmospheric chemistry.

Trend Analysis of Nitrogen Deposition to Baltic Sea and its sub basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semeena, V. S.; Jerzy, Bartnicki

2009-04-01

Since the beginning of last century, Baltic Sea has changed from a clear-water sea into a eutrophic marine environment. Eutrophication is the major problem in the Baltic Sea. Excessive nitrogen and phosphorus loads coming from land-based sources within and outside the catchment area of the bordering countries of the Baltic Sea are the main cause of the eutrophication in the sea. Even though a major part of nitrogen(75%) and phosphorus load(95%) enter the sea via rivers or as water-born discharges, 25% of the nitrogen load comes as atmospheric deposition. Numerical models are the best tools to measure atmospheric deposition into sea waters. We have used the latest version of the Unified EMEP model - which has been developed at the EMEP/MSC-W (Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - West of EMEP) for simulating atmospheric transport and deposition of acidifying and eutrophying compounds as well as photo-oxidants in Europe- to study the trends in atmospheric deposition of nitrogen into Baltic Sea for the period 1995-2006. The model domain covers Europe and the Atlantic Ocean. The model grid (of the size 170×133) has a horizontal resolution of 50 km at 60o N, which is consistent with the resolution of emission data reported to CLRTAP. Approximately 10 of these layers are placed below 2 km to obtain high resolution of the boundary layer which is of special importance to the long range transport of air pollution. EMEP model has been thouroughly validated (Fagerli et.al.[1], Simpson et.al.[2], Simpson et.al.[3] ) The contribution of deposition of nitrogen into Baltic Sea from each of the bordering countries of the Baltic Sea and the deposition trends for the period 1995-2006 has been analysed and the results will be presented. References: [1]. Fagerli H., Simpson D. and Aas W.: Model performance for sulphur and nitrogen compounds for the period 1980 to 2000. [In:] L. Tarraśon, (editor), Transboundary Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground Level Ozone in Europe. EMEP Status Report 1/2003, Part II Unified EMEP Model Performance, pages 1-66. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, 2003. [2]. Simpson D., Butterbach-Bahl K., Fagerli H., Kesik M. and Skiba U.: Deposition and Emissions of Reactive Nitrogen over European Forests: A Modelling Study. Atmos. Environ., 2006, 40(29), 5712-5726. [3]. Simpson D., Fagerli H., Hellsten S., Knulst K. and Westling O.: Comparison of modelled and monitored deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen to ICP-forest sites in Europe. Biogeosciences, 2006, 337-355.

Modified Inverse First Order Reliability Method (I-FORM) for Predicting Extreme Sea States.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Dallman, Ann Renee

Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulation s as a part of the stand ard current practice for designing marine structure s to survive extreme sea states. Such environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height ( ) and energy period ( ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first - order reliability method (IFORM) i s standard design practice for generating environmental contours.more » In this paper, the traditional appli cation of the IFORM to generating environmental contours representing extreme sea states is described in detail and its merits and drawbacks are assessed. The application of additional methods for analyzing sea state data including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the data under consideration is proposed. A reexamination of the components of the IFORM application to the problem at hand including the use of new distribution fitting techniques are shown to contribute to the development of more accurate a nd reasonable representations of extreme sea states for use in survivability analysis for marine struc tures. Keywords: In verse FORM, Principal Component Analysis , Environmental Contours, Extreme Sea State Characteri zation, Wave Energy Converters« less

Data Analysis and Modeling of Arctic Sea Ice Subsurface Roughness.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-01

X in terms of that of Z The above considerations suggest that sculpturing is sometimes a natural way of fitting a Wilk- Gnanadesikan [1968] q-q plot...of ice profiles obtained by submarine sonar in the Beaufort Sea. J. of Glaciology, Vol. 25, pp. 401-424. 12. Wilk, M. B. and Gnanadesikan , R. (1968...obtained by submarine sonar in the Beaufort Sea. J. of Glaciology, Vol. 25, pp. 401-424. 11. Wilk, M. B. and Gnanadesikan , R. (1968). Probability plotting

Spatial variability of the Black Sea surface temperature from high resolution modeling and satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizyuk, Artem; Senderov, Maxim; Korotaev, Gennady

2016-04-01

Large number of numerical ocean models were implemented for the Black Sea basin during last two decades. They reproduce rather similar structure of synoptical variability of the circulation. Since 00-s numerical studies of the mesoscale structure are carried out using high performance computing (HPC). With the growing capacity of computing resources it is now possible to reconstruct the Black Sea currents with spatial resolution of several hundreds meters. However, how realistic these results can be? In the proposed study an attempt is made to understand which spatial scales are reproduced by ocean model in the Black Sea. Simulations are made using parallel version of NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean). A two regional configurations with spatial resolutions 5 km and 2.5 km are described. Comparison of the SST from simulations with two spatial resolutions shows rather qualitative difference of the spatial structures. Results of high resolution simulation are compared also with satellite observations and observation-based products from Copernicus using spatial correlation and spectral analysis. Spatial scales of correlations functions for simulated and observed SST are rather close and differs much from satellite SST reanalysis. Evolution of spectral density for modelled SST and reanalysis showed agreed time periods of small scales intensification. Using of the spectral analysis for satellite measurements is complicated due to gaps. The research leading to this results has received funding from Russian Science Foundation (project № 15-17-20020)

Obliquity-driven expansion of North Atlantic sea ice controls structure of the last glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turney, Chris; Thomas, Zoe; Hutchinson, David; Bradshaw, Corey; Brook, Barry; England, Matthew; Fogwill, Christopher; Jones, Richard; Palmer, Jonathan; Hughen, Konrad; Cooper, Alan

2015-04-01

North Atlantic late-Pleistocene climate was characterised by a series of abrupt climate changes, the most extreme of which were the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events; millennial-scale oscillations that switched rapidly between cold and warm atmospheric conditions of up to Δ16°C, most strongly expressed during the period 60-30 ka. Time series analysis of palaeoclimate ice core records is one of the best ways to detect threshold behaviour in the climate system; however, some of these techniques can be age model dependent. Spectral analysis of a new Greenland-Cariaco GICC05 age model (GICC05-CB), generated by combining the GICC05 and Cariaco ∂18O chronologies, reveals a change in the dominant periodicities at ~31 ka, consistent with the cessation of the D-O events. While the GICC05-CB has the same ∂18O structure as GICC05, the different periodicity profile reveals a change in the climate system at 31 ka. Stability analysis of the ∂18O time series over the last 60 ka determines the number of states the climate experienced over time, and reveals a bifurcation in the climate system at 31 ka, switching from a bistable to a monostable state. Early warning signals of this bifurcation are also detected starting 10,000 years before the shift in the form of increasing autocorrelation and variance. This is consistent with the climate system experiencing a slow forcing towards a critical threshold. These signals are found in both the GICC05-CB and GICC05 chronologies, though the timing of the bifurcation point varies slightly. We suggest that this bifurcation is linked to a minima in obliquity, causing greatly expanded sea ice in the Labrador sea. Modelling runs from the CSIRO Mk3L Earth-system model indicates that extensive sea ice cover is established in the Labrador Sea and North Pacific at the obliquity minima centred on 28.5 ka. This expanded sea ice is thus responsible for shifting the Northern Hemisphere westerlies southwards and reducing the strength of the AMOC, preventing the establishment of the cold state from 31 ka.

Modelling Antarctic sea-level data to explore the possibility of a dominant Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse IA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassett, S. E.; Milne, G. A.; Bentley, M. J.; Huybrechts, P.

2007-09-01

We compare numerical predictions of glaciation-induced sea-level change to data from 8 locations around the Antarctic coast in order to test if the available data preclude the possibility of a dominant Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse IA (mwp-IA). Results based on a subset of 7 spherically symmetric earth viscosity models and 6 different Antarctic deglaciation histories indicate that the sea-level data do not rule out a large Antarctic source for this event. Our preliminary analysis indicates that the Weddell Sea is the most likely source region for a large (˜9 m) Antarctic contribution to mwp-IA. The Ross Sea is also plausible as a significant contributor (˜5 m) from a sea-level perspective, but glacio-geological field observations are not compatible with such a large and rapid melt from this region. Our results suggest that the Lambert Glacier component of the East Antarctic ice sheet experienced significant retreat at the time of mwp-IA, but only contributed ˜0.15 m (eustatic sea-level change). All of the ice models considered under-predicted the isostatic component of the sea-level response in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Sôya Coast region of the East Antarctic ice sheet, indicating that the maximum ice thickness in these regions is underestimated. It is therefore plausible that ice melt from these areas, the Antarctic Peninsula in particular, could have made a significant contribution to mwp-IA.

Temporal variatiions of Sea ice cover in the Baltic Sea derived from operational sea ice products used in NWP.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Martin; Paul, Gerhard; Potthast, Roland

2014-05-01

Sea ice cover is a crucial parameter for surface fluxes of heat and moisture over water areas. The isolating effect and the much higher albedo strongly reduces the turbulent exchange of heat and moisture from the surface to the atmosphere and allows for cold and dry air mass flow with strong impact on the stability of the whole boundary layer and consequently cloud formation as well as precipitation in the downstream regions. Numerical weather centers as, ECMWF, MetoFrance or DWD use external products to initialize SST and sea ice cover in their NWP models. To the knowledge of the author there are mainly two global sea ice products well established with operational availability, one from NOAA NCEP that combines measurements with satellite data, and the other from OSI-SAF derived from SSMI/S sensors. The latter one is used in the Ostia product. DWD additionally uses a regional product for the Baltic Sea provided by the national center for shipping and hydrografie which combines observations from ships (and icebreakers) for the German part of the Baltic Sea and model analysis from the hydrodynamic HIROMB model of the Swedish meteorological service for the rest of the domain. The temporal evolution of the three different products are compared for a cold period in Februar 2012. Goods and bads will be presented and suggestions for a harmonization of strong day to day jumps over large areas are suggested.

Regional forecasting system of marine state and variability of dynamical processes in the easternmost part of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kordzadze, Avtandil; Demetrashvili, Demuri

2014-05-01

The regional forecasting system for the easternmost part of the Black Sea developed at M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics of I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University under the EU framework projects ARENA and ECOOP is a part of the Black Sea basin-scale Nowcasting/Forecasting System. A core of the regional forecasting system is a baroclinic regional model of Black Sea dynamics with 1 km spacing based on hydrostatic primitive equations of ocean hydrothermodynamics, which are written in z-coordinates for deviations of thermodynamic values from their standard vertical distributions. To solve the problem the two-cycle method of splitting the model equation system with respect to both physical processes and coordinate planes and lines is used. The regional model of M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics is nested in the basin-scale model of Black Sea dynamics of Marine Hydrophysical Institute (Sevastopol/Ukraine). The regional forecasting system provides 3 days' forecasts of current, temperature and salinity for the easternmost part of the Black Sea, which is limited to the Caucasian and Turkish coastal lines and the western liquid boundary coinciding with the meridian 39.080E. Data needed on liquid and upper boundaries, also the 3-D initial hydrophysical fields for the easternmost regional area are provided in near operative mode from Marine hydrophysical Institute via Internet. These data on the liquid boundary are values of velocity components, temperature and salinity predicted by the basin-scale model of Black Sea dynamics of Marine Hydrophysical Institute and on the sea surface 2-D meteorological boundary fields - wind stress, heat fluxes, evaporation and precipitation rates predicted by the regional atmospheric model ALADIN are used. The analysis of the results of modeling and forecast of dynamic processes developed for 2010-2014 showed that the easternmost water area of the Black Sea is a dynamically very active zone, where continuously there are processes of generation, deformation and disappearance of the cyclonic and anticyclonic vortex formations of different sizes. Acknowledgement. The significant part of the researches was supported by the Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation, Grant No. AR/373/9-120/12.

Dynamics of the Water Circulations in the Southern South China Sea and Its Seasonal Transports

PubMed Central

Ooi, See Hai; Samah, Azizan Abu; Akbari, Abolghasem

2016-01-01

A three-dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System is used to study the seasonal water circulations and transports of the Southern South China Sea. The simulated seasonal water circulations and estimated transports show consistency with observations, e.g., satellite altimeter data set and re-analysis data of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. It is found that the seasonal water circulations are mainly driven by the monsoonal wind stress and influenced by the water outflow/inflow and associated currents of the entire South China Sea. The intrusion of the strong current along the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia and the eddies at different depths in all seasons are due to the conservation of the potential vorticity as the depth increases. Results show that the water circulation patterns in the northern part of the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia are generally dominated by the geostrophic currents while those in the southern areas are due solely to the wind stress because of negligible Coriolis force there. This study clearly shows that individual surface freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation) controls the sea salinity balance in the Southern South China Sea thermohaline circulations. Analysis of climatological data from a high resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System reveals that the complex bathymetry is important not only for water exchange through the Southern South China Sea but also in regulating various transports across the main passages in the Southern South China Sea, namely the Sunda Shelf and the Strait of Malacca. Apart from the above, in comparision with the dynamics of the Sunda Shelf, the Strait of Malacca reflects an equally significant role in the annual transports into the Andaman Sea. PMID:27410682

Dynamics of the Water Circulations in the Southern South China Sea and Its Seasonal Transports.

PubMed

Daryabor, Farshid; Ooi, See Hai; Samah, Azizan Abu; Akbari, Abolghasem

2016-01-01

A three-dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System is used to study the seasonal water circulations and transports of the Southern South China Sea. The simulated seasonal water circulations and estimated transports show consistency with observations, e.g., satellite altimeter data set and re-analysis data of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. It is found that the seasonal water circulations are mainly driven by the monsoonal wind stress and influenced by the water outflow/inflow and associated currents of the entire South China Sea. The intrusion of the strong current along the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia and the eddies at different depths in all seasons are due to the conservation of the potential vorticity as the depth increases. Results show that the water circulation patterns in the northern part of the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia are generally dominated by the geostrophic currents while those in the southern areas are due solely to the wind stress because of negligible Coriolis force there. This study clearly shows that individual surface freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation) controls the sea salinity balance in the Southern South China Sea thermohaline circulations. Analysis of climatological data from a high resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System reveals that the complex bathymetry is important not only for water exchange through the Southern South China Sea but also in regulating various transports across the main passages in the Southern South China Sea, namely the Sunda Shelf and the Strait of Malacca. Apart from the above, in comparision with the dynamics of the Sunda Shelf, the Strait of Malacca reflects an equally significant role in the annual transports into the Andaman Sea.

A 35-year hindcast for the Baltic Sea (1980-2014) - a statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gräwe, Ulf; Holtermann, Peter

2015-04-01

The Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed sea with limited water exchange. The most important process that leads to deep water renewal of the Baltic Sea are inflows of dense, saline North Sea water. These water masses have to pass narrow channels and sills in the Danish Straits and three basins with increasing depth. Along this path, the inflowing gravity currents are subject to entrainment, vertical and horizontal mixing. Thus, physical and numerical mixing are crucial for the proper propagation of these inflows. Additionally, a permanent halocline and a summer thermocline are challenging for state of the art ocean models. Moreover, Holtermann et al (2014) could show, that boundary mixing in the deep basins dominates the vertical mixing of tracers. To tackle these challenges, we used the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) to give a state estimate for the Baltic Sea for the period 1980-2014. The setup has a horizontal resolution of 1 nm. In the vertical, terain following coordinates are used. A special feature of GETM is that it can run with vertical adaptive coordinates. Here we use an adaptation towards stratification. The minimum layer thickness is limited to 30 cm. We also include the effects of wind waves (by radiation stresses, and changes in the bottom stresses) into our simulations. The atmospheric forcing is taken from the global reanalysis of the NCEP-CFSR (Saha et al 2011) with a spatial resolution of 30 km and hourly values. The model validation at selected stations in the Baltic Sea shows an average Bias of ±0.15 psu and a RMSE of 0.4 psu. These values are similar to the data assimilation runs of Fu et al (2011) or Liu et al (2013). However, one has to note that our simulations are free runs without any nudging or data assimilation. Driven by the good performance of the model, we use the model output to provide a state estimate of the actual climate period (1980-2010). The analysis includes a quantification and estimation of: surge levels with a 30-year return period temperature maxima with a return period of 30 years (in the surface and bottom waters) duration of heat waves warming and desalination trends age of water masses with last surface contact. The presented model results might act as a reference to compare climate projections with the present state of the Baltic Sea. Moreover, the model system will act as inner core of a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (ERGOM). References: Fu, W., She, J. & Dobrynin, M. A 20-year reanalysis experiment in the Baltic Sea using three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method. Ocean Sci. 8, 827--844 (2012). Holtermann, P. L., Burchard, H., Gräwe, U., Klingbeil, K. & Umlauf, L. Deep-water dynamics and boundary mixing in a nontidal stratified basin: A modeling study of the Baltic Sea. J. Geophys. Res. Ocean. 119, 1465--1487 (2014). Liu, Y., Meier, H. E. M. & Axell, L. Reanalyzing temperature and salinity on decadal time scales using the ensemble optimal interpolation data assimilation method and a 3D ocean circulation model of the Baltic Sea. J. Geophys. Res. Ocean. 118, 5536--5554 (2013). Saha, S. et al. The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91, 1015--1057 (2010).

Simulation of a class of hazardous situations in the ICS «INM RAS - Baltic Sea»

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharova, Natalia; Agoshkov, Valery; Aseev, Nikita; Parmuzin, Eugene; Sheloput, Tateana; Shutyaev, Victor

2017-04-01

Development of Informational Computational Systems (ICS) for data assimilation procedures is one of multidisciplinary problems. To study and solve these problems one needs to apply modern results from different disciplines and recent developments in mathematical modeling, theory of adjoint equations and optimal control, inverse problems, numerical methods theory, numerical algebra, scientific computing and processing of satellite data. In this work the results on the ICS development for PC-ICS "INM RAS - Baltic Sea" are presented. We discuss practical problems studied by ICS. The System includes numerical model of the Baltic Sea thermodynamics, the new oil spill model describing the propagation of a slick at the Sea surface (Agoshkov, Aseev et al., 2014) and the optimal ship route calculating block (Agoshkov, Zayachkovsky et al., 2014). The ICS is based on the INMOM numerical model of the Baltic Sea thermodynamics (Zalesny et al., 2013). It is possible to calculate main hydrodynamic parameters (temperature, salinity, velocities, sea level) using user-friendly interface of the ICS. The System includes data assimilation procedures (Agoshkov, 2003, Parmuzin, Agoshkov, 2012) and one can use the block of variational assimilation of the sea surface temperature in order to obtain main hydrodynamic parameters. Main possibilities of the ICS and several numerical experiments are presented in the work. By the problem of risk control is meant a problem of determination of optimal resources quantity which are necessary for decreasing the risk to some acceptable value. Mass of oil slick is chosen as a function of control. For the realization of the random variable the quadratic "functional of cost" is introduced. It comprises cleaning costs and deviation of damage of oil pollution from its acceptable value. The problem of minimization of this functional is solved based on the methods of optimal control and the theory of adjoint equations. The solution of this problem is explicitly found. The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 16-31-00510) and by the Russian Science Foundation (project №14-11-00609). V. I. Agoshkov, Methods of Optimal Control and Adjoint Equations in Problems of Mathematical Physics. INM RAS, Moscow, 2003 (in Russian). V. B. Zalesny, A. V. Gusev, V. O. Ivchenko, R. Tamsalu, and R. Aps, Numerical model of the Baltic Sea circulation. Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling 28 (2013), No. 1, 85-100. V.I. Agoshkov, A.O. Zayachkovskiy, R. Aps, P. Kujala, and J. Rytkönen. Risk theory based solution to the problem of optimal vessel route // Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling. 2014. Volume 29, Issue 2, Pages 69-78. Agoshkov, V., Aseev, N., Aps, R., Kujala, P., Rytkönen, J., Zalesny, V. The problem of control of oil pollution risk in the Baltic Sea // Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling. 2014. Volume 29, Issue 2, Pages 93-105. E. I. Parmuzin and V. I. Agoshkov, Numerical solution of the variational assimilation problem for sea surface temperature in the model of the Black Sea dynamics. Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling 27 (2012), No. 1, 69-94. Olof Liungman and Johan Mattsson. Scientic Documentation of Seatrack Web; physical processes, algorithms and references, 2011.

Atmospheric form drag over Arctic sea ice derived from high-resolution IceBridge elevation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petty, A.; Tsamados, M.; Kurtz, N. T.

2016-02-01

Here we present a detailed analysis of atmospheric form drag over Arctic sea ice, using high resolution, three-dimensional surface elevation data from the NASA Operation IceBridge Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) laser altimeter. Surface features in the sea ice cover are detected using a novel feature-picking algorithm. We derive information regarding the height, spacing and orientation of unique surface features from 2009-2014 across both first-year and multiyear ice regimes. The topography results are used to explicitly calculate atmospheric form drag coefficients; utilizing existing form drag parameterizations. The atmospheric form drag coefficients show strong regional variability, mainly due to variability in ice type/age. The transition from a perennial to a seasonal ice cover therefore suggest a decrease in the atmospheric form drag coefficients over Arctic sea ice in recent decades. These results are also being used to calibrate a recent form drag parameterization scheme included in the sea ice model CICE, to improve the representation of form drag over Arctic sea ice in global climate models.

Neuro-fuzzy and neural network techniques for forecasting sea level in Darwin Harbor, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, Sepideh; Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal; Makarynskyy, Oleg

2013-03-01

Accurate predictions of sea level with different forecast horizons are important for coastal and ocean engineering applications, as well as in land drainage and reclamation studies. The methodology of tidal harmonic analysis, which is generally used for obtaining a mathematical description of the tides, is data demanding requiring processing of tidal observation collected over several years. In the present study, hourly sea levels for Darwin Harbor, Australia were predicted using two different, data driven techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and artificial neural network (ANN). Multi linear regression (MLR) technique was used for selecting the optimal input combinations (lag times) of hourly sea level. The input combination comprises current sea level as well as five previous level values found to be optimal. For the ANFIS models, five different membership functions namely triangular, trapezoidal, generalized bell, Gaussian and two Gaussian membership function were tested and employed for predicting sea level for the next 1 h, 24 h, 48 h and 72 h. The used ANN models were trained using three different algorithms, namely, Levenberg-Marquardt, conjugate gradient and gradient descent. Predictions of optimal ANFIS and ANN models were compared with those of the optimal auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models. The coefficient of determination, root mean square error and variance account statistics were used as comparison criteria. The obtained results indicated that triangular membership function was optimal for predictions with the ANFIS models while adaptive learning rate and Levenberg-Marquardt were most suitable for training the ANN models. Consequently, ANFIS and ANN models gave similar forecasts and performed better than the developed for the same purpose ARMA models for all the prediction intervals.

Mean and extreme sea level changes in the southwestern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Jessica; Patzke, Justus; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen; Fröhle, Peter

2016-04-01

In this contribution an overview over the BMBF project AMSeL_Ostsee (2015-2018) for the assessment of mean and extreme sea level changes over the past 150 years in the southwestern Baltic Sea is presented. We compile several high resolution tide gauge records provided by the Water and Shipping Administration (WSV) along the German Baltic Sea coastline and merge them in internationally available data bases (UHSLC, PSMSL, and data officially available at national authorities). In addition, we make efforts in digitizing historical records to expand the number of available data sets in this complex and vulnerable coastal region. To separate absolute from relative long-term changes in sea level the vertical land motion (VLM) at specific sites is assessed. Possible sources of VLM are independently assessed by using different state-of-the-art approaches, that is: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelled by viscoelastic Earth models, GPS derived VLM, and the difference between tide gauge and nearby satellite altimetry. The VLM corrected tide gauge records are further assessed for linear and non-linear trends as well as possible acceleration/deceleration patterns by applying advanced time series models such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) combined with a Monte-Carlo-Autoregressive-Padding approach (Wahl et al., 2010). These trend assessments are applied to mean and extreme sea levels independently to prove whether observed changes in extremes are either due to an underlying trend on mean sea levels or changes in storminess. References: Wahl, T., Jensen, J., Frank, T. (2011): On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844, NHESS, 10, 171-179.

A study of the Alboran sea mesoscale system by means of empirical orthogonal function decomposition of satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldacci, A.; Corsini, G.; Grasso, R.; Manzella, G.; Allen, J. T.; Cipollini, P.; Guymer, T. H.; Snaith, H. M.

2001-05-01

This paper presents the results of a combined empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sea surface temperature (SST) data and sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor (SeaWiFS) chlorophyll concentration data over the Alboran Sea (Western Mediterranean), covering a period of 1 year (November 1997-October 1998). The aim of this study is to go beyond the limited temporal extent of available in situ measurements by inferring the temporal and spatial variability of the Alboran Gyre system from long temporal series of satellite observations, in order to gain insight on the interactions between the circulation and the biological activity in the system. In this context, EOF decomposition permits concise and synoptic representation of the effects of physical and biological phenomena traced by SST and chlorophyll concentration. Thus, it is possible to focus the analysis on the most significant phenomena and to understand better the complex interactions between physics and biology at the mesoscale. The results of the EOF analysis of AVHRR-SST and SeaWiFS-chlorophyll concentration data are presented and discussed in detail. These improve and complement the knowledge acquired during the in situ observational campaigns of the MAST-III Observations and Modelling of Eddy scale Geostrophic and Ageostrophic motion (OMEGA) Project.

Mesoscale vortices in the Ligurian Sea and their effect on coastal upwelling processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casella, Elisa; Molcard, Anne; Provenzale, Antonello

2011-10-01

We study numerically the dynamics of intense anticyclonic eddies in the Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean Sea). To this end, we use the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a resolution of 3 km for a domain covering the whole Ligurian Sea, with an embedded child grid covering the northwestern part of Ligurian Sea at resolution 1 km. The model is forced with daily boundary conditions obtained from the MFS dataset for the year 2006 at the open lateral boundaries. Surface heat and evapotranspiration fluxes are provided by the monthly climatological dataset COADS at 1/2° spatial resolution. For wind forcing, we consider two configurations. In the first setting, the model is forced by the COADS climatological monthly mean wind stresses; in a second configuration, the model is forced by the daily mean wind stresses provided by a mesoscale meteorological model for the area of interest in the year 2006. The latter setting shows the formation of intense anticyclonic eddy structures in the coastal area, generated by the variable winds and by the interaction of transient currents with bottom and coastal topography (in the NW part of the Ligurian Sea). Comparison of model output with satellite SST data shows definite agreement between numerical results and observations. Analysis of the simulation results over the whole year 2006 and of SST satellite images in 2006 and 2007 indicates that coastal anticyclonic eddies are of common occurrence in the Ligurian Sea, with several events per year, mainly concentrated in autumn and winter. The eddies are characterized by a complex pattern of intense vertical velocities and induce strong, long-lasting coastal upwelling events. For this reason, anticyclonic vortices in the coastal area can generate bursts of nutrient input in the euphotic layer and contribute to the fertilization of the Ligurian Sea, with potentially important effects on the dynamics of phyto- and zooplankton.

Biological-Physical Coupling in the Gulf of Maine: Satellite and Model Studies of Phytoplankton Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, Andrew C.; Chai, F.; Townsend, D. W.; Xue, H.

2002-01-01

The goals of this project were to acquire, process, QC, archive and analyze SeaWiFS chlorophyll fields over the Gulf of Maine and Scotia Shelf region. The focus of the analysis effort was to calculate and quantify seasonality and interannual. variability of SeaWiFS-measured phytoplankton biomass in the study area and compare these to physical forcing and hydrography. An additional focus within this effort was on regional differences within the heterogeneous biophysical regions of the Gulf of Maine / Scotia Shelf. Overall goals were approached through the combined use of SeaWiFS and AVHRR data and the development of a coupled biology-physical numerical model.

Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kun; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao; Tomas, Robert A.

2018-05-01

The role of ocean dynamics in the transient adjustment of the coupled climate system to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice is investigated using experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 in two configurations: a thermodynamic slab mixed layer ocean and a full-depth ocean that includes both dynamics and thermodynamics. Ocean dynamics produce a distinct sea surface temperature warming maximum in the eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by an equatorward intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Hadley Circulation. These tropical responses are established within 25 years of ice loss and contrast markedly with the quasi-steady antisymmetric coupled response in the slab-ocean configuration. A heat budget analysis reveals the importance of anomalous vertical advection tied to a monotonic temperature increase below 200 m for the equatorial sea surface temperature warming maximum in the fully coupled model. Ocean dynamics also rapidly modify the midlatitude atmospheric response to sea ice loss.

Barents-Kara sea ice and the winter NAO in the DePreSys3 Met Office Seasonal forecast model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, J.; Screen, J.

2017-12-01

Accurate seasonal forecasting leads to a wide range of socio-economic benefits and increases resilience to prolonged bouts of extreme weather. This work looks at how November Barents-Kara sea ice may affect the winter northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using various compositing methods in the DePreSys3 ensemble model, with lag to argue better a relationship between the two. In particular, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is focused on given its implications on European weather. Using this large hindcast dataset comprised of 35 years with 30 available ensemble members, it is found that low Barents-Kara sea ice leads to a negative NAO tendency in all composite methods, with increased mean sea level pressure in higher latitudes. The significance of this varies between composites. This is preliminary analysis of a larger PhD project to further understand how Arctic Sea ice may play a role in seasonal forecasting skill through its connection/influence on mid-latitude weather.

Daily sea level prediction at Chiayi coast, Taiwan using extreme learning machine and relevance vector machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imani, Moslem; Kao, Huan-Chin; Lan, Wen-Hau; Kuo, Chung-Yen

2018-02-01

The analysis and the prediction of sea level fluctuations are core requirements of marine meteorology and operational oceanography. Estimates of sea level with hours-to-days warning times are especially important for low-lying regions and coastal zone management. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the applicability and capability of extreme learning machine (ELM) and relevance vector machine (RVM) models for predicting sea level variations and compare their performances with powerful machine learning methods, namely, support vector machine (SVM) and radial basis function (RBF) models. The input dataset from the period of January 2004 to May 2011 used in the study was obtained from the Dongshi tide gauge station in Chiayi, Taiwan. Results showed that the ELM and RVM models outperformed the other methods. The performance of the RVM approach was superior in predicting the daily sea level time series given the minimum root mean square error of 34.73 mm and the maximum determination coefficient of 0.93 (R2) during the testing periods. Furthermore, the obtained results were in close agreement with the original tide-gauge data, which indicates that RVM approach is a promising alternative method for time series prediction and could be successfully used for daily sea level forecasts.

On the generation and evolution of internal solitary waves in the southern Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Daquan; Zhan, Peng; Kartadikaria, Aditya; Akylas, Triantaphyllos; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2015-04-01

Satellite observations recently revealed the existence of trains of internal solitary waves in the southern Red Sea between 16.0°N and 16.5°N, propagating from the centre of the domain toward the continental shelf [Da silva et al., 2012]. Given the relatively weak tidal velocity in this area and their generation in the central of the domain, Da Silva suggested three possible mechanisms behind the generation of the waves, namely Resonance and disintegration of interfacial tides, Generation of interfacial tides by impinging, remotely generated internal tidal beams and for geometrically focused and amplified internal tidal beams. Tide analysis based on tide stations data and barotropic tide model in the Red Sea shows that tide is indeed very weak in the centre part of the Red Sea, but it is relatively strong in the northern and southern parts (reaching up to 66 cm/s). Together with extreme steep slopes along the deep trench, it provides favourable conditions for the generation of internal solitary in the southern Red Sea. To investigate the generation mechanisms and study the evolution of the internal waves in the off-shelf region of the southern Red Sea we have implemented a 2-D, high-resolution and non-hydrostatic configuration of the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm). Our simulations reproduce well that the generation process of the internal solitary waves. Analysis of the model's output suggests that the interaction between the topography and tidal flow with the nonlinear effect is the main mechanism behind the generation of the internal solitary waves. Sensitivity experiments suggest that neither tidal beam nor the resonance effect of the topography is important factor in this process.

The potential role of sea spray droplets in facilitating air-sea gas transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreas, E. L.; Vlahos, P.; Monahan, E. C.

2016-05-01

For over 30 years, air-sea interaction specialists have been evaluating and parameterizing the role of whitecap bubbles in air-sea gas exchange. To our knowledge, no one, however, has studied the mirror image process of whether sea spray droplets can facilitate air-sea gas exchange. We are therefore using theory, data analysis, and numerical modeling to quantify the role of spray on air-sea gas transfer. In this, our first formal work on this subject, we seek the rate-limiting step in spray-mediated gas transfer by evaluating the three time scales that govern the exchange: τ air , which quantifies the rate of transfer between the atmospheric gas reservoir and the surface of the droplet; τ int , which quantifies the exchange rate across the air-droplet interface; and τ aq , which quantifies gas mixing within the aqueous solution droplet.

Costs and benefits of low-sulphur fuel standard for Baltic Sea shipping.

PubMed

Antturi, Jim; Hänninen, Otto; Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka; Johansson, Lasse; Prank, Marje; Sofiev, Mikhail; Ollikainen, Markku

2016-12-15

The maximum allowable fuel sulphur content for shipping in the Baltic Sea dropped from 1%S to 0.1%S in 1 January 2015. We provide a cost-benefit analysis of the sulphur reduction policy in the Baltic Sea Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA). We calculated the abatement costs based on shipowners' optimal decision-making in choosing between low-sulphur fuel and a sulphur scrubber, and the benefits were modelled through a high-resolution impact pathway analysis, which took into account the formation and dispersion of the emissions, and considered the positive health impacts resulting from lowered ambient PM 2.5 concentrations. Our basic result indicates that for the Baltic Sea only, the latest sulphur regulation is not cost-effective. The expected annual cost is roughly €465 M and benefit 2200 saved Disability Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) or monetized €105 M. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the benefits yet have a potential to exceed the costs. The analysis neither takes into account the acidifying impact of sulphur nor the impact North Sea shipping has on the cost-benefit ratio. Lastly, a similar approach is found highly recommendable to study the implications of the upcoming Tier III NO x standard for shipping. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of CEDA and ASPIC computer packages to the hairtail ( Trichiurus japonicus) fishery in the East China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yu; Liu, Qun

2013-01-01

Surplus-production models are widely used in fish stock assessment and fisheries management due to their simplicity and lower data demands than age-structured models such as Virtual Population Analysis. The CEDA (catch-effort data analysis) and ASPIC (a surplus-production model incorporating covariates) computer packages are data-fitting or parameter estimation tools that have been developed to analyze catch-and-effort data using non-equilibrium surplus production models. We applied CEDA and ASPIC to the hairtail ( Trichiurus japonicus) fishery in the East China Sea. Both packages produced robust results and yielded similar estimates. In CEDA, the Schaefer surplus production model with log-normal error assumption produced results close to those of ASPIC. CEDA is sensitive to the choice of initial proportion, while ASPIC is not. However, CEDA produced higher R 2 values than ASPIC.

Low and High Frequency Models of Response Statistics of a Cylindrical Orthogrid Vehicle Panel to Acoustic Excitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Andrew; LaVerde, Bruce; Teague, David; Gardner, Bryce; Cotoni, Vincent

2010-01-01

This presentation further develops the orthogrid vehicle panel work. Employed Hybrid Module capabilities to assess both low/mid frequency and high frequency models in the VA One simulation environment. The response estimates from three modeling approaches are compared to ground test measurements. Detailed Finite Element Model of the Test Article -Expect to capture both the global panel modes and the local pocket mode response, but at a considerable analysis expense (time & resources). A Composite Layered Construction equivalent global stiffness approximation using SEA -Expect to capture response of the global panel modes only. An SEA approximation using the Periodic Subsystem Formulation. A finite element model of a single periodic cell is used to derive the vibroacoustic properties of the entire periodic structure (modal density, radiation efficiency, etc. Expect to capture response at various locations on the panel (on the skin and on the ribs) with less analysis expense

Data-driven Analysis and Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrashov, D. A.; Chekroun, M.; Ghil, M.; Yuan, X.; Ting, M.

2015-12-01

We present results of data-driven predictive analyses of sea ice over the main Arctic regions. Our approach relies on the Multilayer Stochastic Modeling (MSM) framework of Kondrashov, Chekroun and Ghil [Physica D, 2015] and it leads to prognostic models of sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies on seasonal time scales.This approach is applied to monthly time series of leading principal components from the multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function decomposition of SIC and selected climate variables over the Arctic. We evaluate the predictive skill of MSM models by performing retrospective forecasts with "no-look ahead" forup to 6-months ahead. It will be shown in particular that the memory effects included in our non-Markovian linear MSM models improve predictions of large-amplitude SIC anomalies in certain Arctic regions. Furtherimprovements allowed by the MSM framework will adopt a nonlinear formulation, as well as alternative data-adaptive decompositions.

The Deep Western Boundary Current in the Labrador Sea From Observations and a High-Resolution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handmann, Patricia; Fischer, Jürgen; Visbeck, Martin; Karstensen, Johannes; Biastoch, Arne; Böning, Claus; Patara, Lavinia

2018-04-01

Long-term observations from a 17 year long mooring array at the exit of the Labrador Sea at 53°N are compared to the output of a high-resolution model (VIKING20). Both are analyzed to define robust integral properties on basin and regional scale, which can be determined and evaluated equally well. While both, the observations and the model, show a narrow DWBC cyclonically engulfing the Labrador Sea, the model's boundary current system is more barotropic than in the observations and spectral analysis indicates stronger monthly to interannual transport variability. Compared to the model, the observations show a stronger density gradient, hence a stronger baroclinicity, from center to boundary. Despite this, the observed temporal evolution of the temperature in the central Labrador Sea is reproduced. The model results yield a mean export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) (33.0 ± 5.7 Sv), which is comparable to the observed transport (31.2 ± 5.5 Sv) at 53°N. The results also include a comparable spatial pattern and March mixed layer depth in the central Labrador Sea (maximum depth ˜2,000 m). During periods containing enhanced deep convection (1990s) our analyses show increased correlation between LSW and LNADW model transport at 53°N. Our results indicate that the transport variability in LSW and LNADW at 53°N is a result of a complex modulation of wind stress and buoyancy forcing on regional and basin wide scale.

A hybrid SEA/modal technique for modeling structural-acoustic interior noise in rotorcraft.

PubMed

Jayachandran, V; Bonilha, M W

2003-03-01

This paper describes a hybrid technique that combines Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) predictions for structural vibration with acoustic modal summation techniques to predict interior noise levels in rotorcraft. The method was applied for predicting the sound field inside a mock-up of the interior panel system of the Sikorsky S-92 helicopter. The vibration amplitudes of the frame and panel systems were predicted using a detailed SEA model and these were used as inputs to the model of the interior acoustic space. The spatial distribution of the vibration field on individual panels, and their coupling to the acoustic space were modeled using stochastic techniques. Leakage and nonresonant transmission components were accounted for using space-averaged values obtained from a SEA model of the complete structural-acoustic system. Since the cabin geometry was quite simple, the modeling of the interior acoustic space was performed using a standard modal summation technique. Sound pressure levels predicted by this approach at specific microphone locations were compared with measured data. Agreement within 3 dB in one-third octave bands above 40 Hz was observed. A large discrepancy in the one-third octave band in which the first acoustic mode is resonant (31.5 Hz) was observed. Reasons for such a discrepancy are discussed in the paper. The developed technique provides a method for modeling helicopter cabin interior noise in the frequency mid-range where neither FEA nor SEA is individually effective or accurate.

The wind sea and swell waves climate in the Nordic seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semedo, Alvaro; Vettor, Roberto; Breivik, Øyvind; Sterl, Andreas; Reistad, Magnar; Soares, Carlos Guedes; Lima, Daniela

2015-02-01

A detailed climatology of wind sea and swell waves in the Nordic Seas (North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and Barents Sea), based on the high-resolution reanalysis NORA10, developed by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, is presented. The higher resolution of the wind forcing fields, and the wave model (10 km in both cases), along with the inclusion of the bottom effect, allowed a better description of the wind sea and swell features, compared to previous global studies. The spatial patterns of the swell-dominated regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean, due to coastal geometry, fetch dimensions, and island sheltering. Nevertheless, swell waves are still more prevalent and carry more energy in the Nordic Seas, with the exception of the North Sea. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the winter regional wind sea and swell patterns is also presented. The analysis of the decadal trends of wind sea and swell heights during the NORA10 period (1958-2001) shows that the long-term trends of the total significant wave height (SWH) in the Nordic Seas are mostly due to swell and to the wave propagation effect.

Dynamical analysis of a satellite-observed anticyclonic eddy in the northern Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yineng; Li, Xiaofeng; Wang, Jia; Peng, Shiqiu

2016-05-01

The characteristics and evolution of a satellite-observed anticyclonic eddy in the northern Bering Sea during March and April 1999 are investigated using a three-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The anticyclonic-like current pattern and asymmetric feature of the eddy were clearly seen in the synthetic aperture radar (SAR), sea surface temperature, and ocean color images in April 1999. The results from model simulation reveal the three-dimensional structure of the anticyclonic eddy, its movement, and dissipation. Energy analysis indicates that the barotropic instability (BTI) is the main energy source for the growth of the anticyclonic eddy. The momentum analysis further reveals that the larger magnitude of the barotropic pressure gradient in the meridional direction causes the asymmetry of the anticyclonic eddy in the zonal and meridional directions, while the different magnitudes of the meridional baroclinic pressure gradient are responsible for the different intensity of currents between the northern and southern parts of the anticyclonic eddy. This article was corrected on 23 JUL 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

Arctic Sea Ice: Trends, Stability and Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Woosok

A stochastic Arctic sea-ice model is derived and analyzed in detail to interpret the recent decay and associated variability of Arctic sea-ice under changes in greenhouse gas forcing widely referred to as global warming. The approach begins from a deterministic model of the heat flux balance through the air/sea/ice system, which uses observed monthly-averaged heat fluxes to drive a time evolution of sea-ice thickness. This model reproduces the observed seasonal cycle of the ice cover and it is to this that stochastic noise---representing high frequency variability---is introduced. The model takes the form of a single periodic non-autonomous stochastic ordinary differential equation. Following an introductory chapter, the two that follow focus principally on the properties of the deterministic model in order to identify the main properties governing the stability of the ice cover. In chapter 2 the underlying time-dependent solutions to the deterministic model are analyzed for their stability. It is found that the response time-scale of the system to perturbations is dominated by the destabilizing sea-ice albedo feedback, which is operative in the summer, and the stabilizing long wave radiative cooling of the ice surface, which is operative in the winter. This basic competition is found throughout the thesis to define the governing dynamics of the system. In particular, as greenhouse gas forcing increases, the sea-ice albedo feedback becomes more effective at destabilizing the system. Thus, any projections of the future state of Arctic sea-ice will depend sensitively on the treatment of the ice-albedo feedback. This in turn implies that the treatment a fractional ice cover as the ice areal extent changes rapidly, must be handled with the utmost care. In chapter 3, the idea of a two-season model, with just winter and summer, is revisited. By breaking the seasonal cycle up in this manner one can simplify the interpretation of the basic dynamics. Whereas in the fully time-dependent seasonal model one finds stable seasonal ice cover (vanishing in the summer but reappearing in the winter), in previous two-season models such a state could not be found. In this chapter the sufficient conditions are found for a stable seasonal ice cover, which reside in including a time variation in the shortwave radiance during summer. This provides a qualitative interpretation of the continuous and reversible shift from perennial to seasonally-varying states in the more complex deterministic model. In order to put the stochastic model into a realistic observational framework, in chapter 4, the analysis of daily satellite retrievals of ice albedo and ice extent is described. Both the basic statistics are examined and a new method, called multi-fractal temporally weighted detrended fluctuation analysis, is applied. Because the basic data are taken on daily time scales, the full fidelity of the retrieved data is accessed and we find time scales from days and weeks to seasonal and decadal. Importantly, the data show a white-noise structure on annual to biannual time scales and this provides the basis for using a Wiener process for the noise in the stochastic Arctic sea-ice model. In chapter 5 a generalized perturbation analysis of a non-autonomous stochastic differential equation is developed and then applied to interpreting the variability of Arctic sea-ice as greenhouse gas forcing increases. The resulting analytic expressions of the statistical moments provide insight into the transient and memory-delay effects associated with the basic competition in the system: the ice-albedo feedback and long wave radiative stabilization along with the asymmetry in the nonlinearity of the deterministic contributions to the model and the magnitude and structure of the stochastic noise. A systematic study of the impact of the noise structure, from additive to multiplicative, is undertaken in chapters 6 and 7. Finally, in chapter 8 the matter of including a fractional ice cover into a deterministic model is addressed. It is found that a simple but crucial mistake is made in one of the most widely used model schemes and this has a major impact given the important role of areal fraction in the ice-albedo feedback in such a model. The thesis is summarized in chapter 9.

Vibroacoustic optimization using a statistical energy analysis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culla, Antonio; D`Ambrogio, Walter; Fregolent, Annalisa; Milana, Silvia

2016-08-01

In this paper, an optimization technique for medium-high frequency dynamic problems based on Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) method is presented. Using a SEA model, the subsystem energies are controlled by internal loss factors (ILF) and coupling loss factors (CLF), which in turn depend on the physical parameters of the subsystems. A preliminary sensitivity analysis of subsystem energy to CLF's is performed to select CLF's that are most effective on subsystem energies. Since the injected power depends not only on the external loads but on the physical parameters of the subsystems as well, it must be taken into account under certain conditions. This is accomplished in the optimization procedure, where approximate relationships between CLF's, injected power and physical parameters are derived. The approach is applied on a typical aeronautical structure: the cabin of a helicopter.

Ship Detection in Gaofen-3 SAR Images Based on Sea Clutter Distribution Analysis and Deep Convolutional Neural Network

PubMed Central

You, Hongjian

2018-01-01

Target detection is one of the important applications in the field of remote sensing. The Gaofen-3 (GF-3) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite launched by China is a powerful tool for maritime monitoring. This work aims at detecting ships in GF-3 SAR images using a new land masking strategy, the appropriate model for sea clutter and a neural network as the discrimination scheme. Firstly, the fully convolutional network (FCN) is applied to separate the sea from the land. Then, by analyzing the sea clutter distribution in GF-3 SAR images, we choose the probability distribution model of Constant False Alarm Rate (CFAR) detector from K-distribution, Gamma distribution and Rayleigh distribution based on a tradeoff between the sea clutter modeling accuracy and the computational complexity. Furthermore, in order to better implement CFAR detection, we also use truncated statistic (TS) as a preprocessing scheme and iterative censoring scheme (ICS) for boosting the performance of detector. Finally, we employ a neural network to re-examine the results as the discrimination stage. Experiment results on three GF-3 SAR images verify the effectiveness and efficiency of this approach. PMID:29364194

Ship Detection in Gaofen-3 SAR Images Based on Sea Clutter Distribution Analysis and Deep Convolutional Neural Network.

PubMed

An, Quanzhi; Pan, Zongxu; You, Hongjian

2018-01-24

Target detection is one of the important applications in the field of remote sensing. The Gaofen-3 (GF-3) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite launched by China is a powerful tool for maritime monitoring. This work aims at detecting ships in GF-3 SAR images using a new land masking strategy, the appropriate model for sea clutter and a neural network as the discrimination scheme. Firstly, the fully convolutional network (FCN) is applied to separate the sea from the land. Then, by analyzing the sea clutter distribution in GF-3 SAR images, we choose the probability distribution model of Constant False Alarm Rate (CFAR) detector from K-distribution, Gamma distribution and Rayleigh distribution based on a tradeoff between the sea clutter modeling accuracy and the computational complexity. Furthermore, in order to better implement CFAR detection, we also use truncated statistic (TS) as a preprocessing scheme and iterative censoring scheme (ICS) for boosting the performance of detector. Finally, we employ a neural network to re-examine the results as the discrimination stage. Experiment results on three GF-3 SAR images verify the effectiveness and efficiency of this approach.

The influence of the hydrologic cycle on the extent of sea ice with climatic implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, Ken; Gosink, Joan

1991-01-01

The role was analyzed of the hydrologic cycle on the distribution of sea ice, and its influence on forcings and fluxes between the marine environment and the atmosphere. River discharge plays a significant role in degrading the sea ice before any melting occurs elsewhere along the coast. The influence is considered of river discharge on the albedo, thermal balance, and distribution of sea ice. Quantitative atmospheric-hydrologic models are being developed to describe these processes in the coastal zone. Input for the models will come from satellite images, hydrologic data, and field observations. The resulting analysis provides a basis for the study of the significance of the hydrologic cycle throughout the Arctic Basin and its influence on the regional climate as a result of possible climatic scenarios. The area offshore from the Mackenzie River delta was selected as the study area.

Application of remote sensing for fishery resource assessment and monitoring. [analysis of fish catch relative to water rips

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savastano, K. J. (Principal Investigator)

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A plot was drawn of the dolphin catch and the water discontinuities observed in the aerial photography. This plot was similar in format to the one made earlier on the white marlin catch relative to the water rips. Neither plot substantiates (as far as white marlin and dolphin are concerned) an opinion held by fishermen that better fishing may be found in the vicinity of the rips. Remotely inferred values for sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a and turbidity were substituted for sea truth measurements in prediction models developed in previous analysis. Model performance, using the new values, was disappointing.

Quantitative Phylogenomics of Within-Species Mitogenome Variation: Monte Carlo and Non-Parametric Analysis of Phylogeographic Structure among Discrete Transatlantic Breeding Areas of Harp Seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus)

PubMed Central

Carr, Steven M.; Duggan, Ana T.; Stenson, Garry B.; Marshall, H. Dawn

2015-01-01

Phylogenomic analysis of highly-resolved intraspecific phylogenies obtained from complete mitochondrial DNA genomes has had great success in clarifying relationships within and among human populations, but has found limited application in other wild species. Analytical challenges include assessment of random versus non-random phylogeographic distributions, and quantification of differences in tree topologies among populations. Harp Seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus Erxleben, 1777) have a biogeographic distribution based on four discrete trans-Atlantic breeding and whelping populations located on “fast ice” attached to land in the White Sea, Greenland Sea, the Labrador ice Front, and Southern Gulf of St Lawrence. This East to West distribution provides a set of a priori phylogeographic hypotheses. Outstanding biogeographic questions include the degree of genetic distinctiveness among these populations, in particular between the Greenland Sea and White Sea grounds. We obtained complete coding-region DNA sequences (15,825 bp) for 53 seals. Each seal has a unique mtDNA genome sequence, which differ by 6 ~ 107 substitutions. Six major clades / groups are detectable by parsimony, neighbor-joining, and Bayesian methods, all of which are found in breeding populations on either side of the Atlantic. The species coalescent is at 180 KYA; the most recent clade, which accounts for 66% of the diversity, reflects an expansion during the mid-Wisconsinan glaciation 40 ~ 60 KYA. FST is significant only between the White Sea and Greenland Sea or Ice Front populations. Hierarchal AMOVA of 2-, 3-, or 4-island models identifies small but significant ΦSC among populations within groups, but not among groups. A novel Monte-Carlo simulation indicates that the observed distribution of individuals within breeding populations over the phylogenetic tree requires significantly fewer dispersal events than random expectation, consistent with island or a priori East to West 2- or 3-stepping-stone biogeographic models, but not a simple 1-step trans-Atlantic model. Plots of the cumulative pairwise sequence difference curves among seals in each of the four populations provide continuous proxies for phylogenetic diversification within each. Non-parametric Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) tests of maximum pairwise differences between these curves indicates that the Greenland Sea population has a markedly younger phylogenetic structure than either the White Sea population or the two Northwest Atlantic populations, which are of intermediate age and homogeneous structure. The Monte Carlo and K-S assessments provide sensitive quantitative tests of within-species mitogenomic phylogeography. This is the first study to indicate that the White Sea and Greenland Sea populations have different population genetic histories. The analysis supports the hypothesis that Harp Seals comprises three genetically distinguishable breeding populations, in the White Sea, Greenland Sea, and Northwest Atlantic. Implications for an ice-dependent species during ongoing climate change are discussed. PMID:26301872

Quantitative Phylogenomics of Within-Species Mitogenome Variation: Monte Carlo and Non-Parametric Analysis of Phylogeographic Structure among Discrete Transatlantic Breeding Areas of Harp Seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus).

PubMed

Carr, Steven M; Duggan, Ana T; Stenson, Garry B; Marshall, H Dawn

2015-01-01

Phylogenomic analysis of highly-resolved intraspecific phylogenies obtained from complete mitochondrial DNA genomes has had great success in clarifying relationships within and among human populations, but has found limited application in other wild species. Analytical challenges include assessment of random versus non-random phylogeographic distributions, and quantification of differences in tree topologies among populations. Harp Seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus Erxleben, 1777) have a biogeographic distribution based on four discrete trans-Atlantic breeding and whelping populations located on "fast ice" attached to land in the White Sea, Greenland Sea, the Labrador ice Front, and Southern Gulf of St Lawrence. This East to West distribution provides a set of a priori phylogeographic hypotheses. Outstanding biogeographic questions include the degree of genetic distinctiveness among these populations, in particular between the Greenland Sea and White Sea grounds. We obtained complete coding-region DNA sequences (15,825 bp) for 53 seals. Each seal has a unique mtDNA genome sequence, which differ by 6 ~ 107 substitutions. Six major clades / groups are detectable by parsimony, neighbor-joining, and Bayesian methods, all of which are found in breeding populations on either side of the Atlantic. The species coalescent is at 180 KYA; the most recent clade, which accounts for 66% of the diversity, reflects an expansion during the mid-Wisconsinan glaciation 40~60 KYA. FST is significant only between the White Sea and Greenland Sea or Ice Front populations. Hierarchal AMOVA of 2-, 3-, or 4-island models identifies small but significant ΦSC among populations within groups, but not among groups. A novel Monte-Carlo simulation indicates that the observed distribution of individuals within breeding populations over the phylogenetic tree requires significantly fewer dispersal events than random expectation, consistent with island or a priori East to West 2- or 3-stepping-stone biogeographic models, but not a simple 1-step trans-Atlantic model. Plots of the cumulative pairwise sequence difference curves among seals in each of the four populations provide continuous proxies for phylogenetic diversification within each. Non-parametric Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) tests of maximum pairwise differences between these curves indicates that the Greenland Sea population has a markedly younger phylogenetic structure than either the White Sea population or the two Northwest Atlantic populations, which are of intermediate age and homogeneous structure. The Monte Carlo and K-S assessments provide sensitive quantitative tests of within-species mitogenomic phylogeography. This is the first study to indicate that the White Sea and Greenland Sea populations have different population genetic histories. The analysis supports the hypothesis that Harp Seals comprises three genetically distinguishable breeding populations, in the White Sea, Greenland Sea, and Northwest Atlantic. Implications for an ice-dependent species during ongoing climate change are discussed.

Impacts of 1, 1.5, and 2 Degree Warming on Arctic Terrestrial Snow and Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derksen, C.; Mudryk, L.; Howell, S.; Flato, G. M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Gillett, N. P.; Sigmond, M.; Kushner, P. J.; Dawson, J.; Zwiers, F. W.; Lemmen, D.; Duguay, C. R.; Zhang, X.; Fletcher, C. G.; Dery, S. J.

2017-12-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the global temperature goal of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." In this study, we utilize multiple gridded snow and sea ice products (satellite retrievals; assimilation systems; physical models driven by reanalyses) and ensembles of climate model simulations to determine the impacts of observed warming, and project the relative impacts of the UNFCC future warming targets on Arctic seasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice cover. Observed changes during the satellite era represent the response to approximately 1°C of global warming. Consistent with other studies, analysis of the observational record (1970's to present) identifies changes including a shorter snow cover duration (due to later snow onset and earlier snow melt), significant reductions in spring snow cover and summer sea ice extent, and the loss of a large proportion of multi-year sea ice. The spatial patterns of observed snow and sea ice loss are coherent across adjacent terrestrial/marine regions. There are strong pattern correlations between snow and temperature trends, with weaker association between sea ice and temperature due to the additional influence of dynamical effects such wind-driven redistribution of sea ice. Climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP-5) multi-model ensemble, large initial condition ensembles of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) , and warming stabilization simulations from CESM were used to identify changes in snow and ice under further increases to 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The model projections indicate these levels of warming will be reached over the coming 2-4 decades. Warming to 1.5°C results in an increase in the number of melting days over snow and sea ice (and resultant increases in snow-free and ice-free duration), which are similar in magnitude to the change from pre-industrial conditions to present day. Continued warming to 2°C further intensifies the cryospheric response consistent with amplified Arctic warming relative to the global average trend.

Reef productivity and preservation during the Late Neogene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husson, Laurent; Pastier, Anne-Morwenn; Schmitt, Anais; Sarr, Anta-Clarisse; Elliot, Mary; Pedoja, Kevin; Bezos, Antoine

2016-04-01

During the glacial-interglacials cycles that prevailed during Plio-Pleistocence times, the pace of sea level oscillations exerts a major control on coral reef growth and expansion. We designed a numerical model to quantify reef productivity and carbonate preservation that accounts for sea level oscillations, reef growth, erosion and subsequent geomorphological carving. We carried out a parametric study of a variety of processes (reef growth, erosion, local slope, uplift and subsidence, relative sea level, etc) towards a probabilistic analysis of reef productivity and carbonate production. We further test the effect of the frequency and amplitude of sea level oscillations using sea level curves derived from both the 18O isotope record of past sea level change and synthetic sinusoidal sea level curves. Over a typical climate cycle, our model simulations confirm that the rate of sea level change is the primary controlling factor of reef production, as it modifies the productivity by several orders of magnitude. Most importantly, reef productivity increases during periods of sea level rise, and decreases during sea level stands, while conversely, the morphology records the opposite in a misleading fashion: Reef terraces expand during sea level stands due to the joint effects of erosion and patient reef growth at a stationary level until the accommodation space is filled up. On the long-term, over the Plio-Pleistocene period, vertical ground motion also significantly alters the production: moderate uplift or subsidence can boost reef productivity up to tenfold with respect to a stationary coastline. Last, the amplitude and frequency of the sea level oscillations (typically 40 kyrs vs. 100 kyrs periods) moderately impact reef productivity. These results can be ultimately converted into estimates of carbonate production and carbon sequestration during the Late Neogene, provided relative sea level is documented in the tectonically agitated intertropical zone.

Dynamics of Clouds and Mesoscale Circulations over the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Y.; Wang, S.; Xian, P.; Reid, J. S.; Nachamkin, J.

2010-12-01

In recent decades Southeast Asia (SEA) has seen rapid economic growth as well as increased biomass burning, resulting in high air pollution levels and reduced air qual-ity. At the same time clouds often prevent accurate air-quality monitoring and analysis using satellite observations. The Seven SouthEast Asian Studies (7SEAS) field campaign currently underway over SEA provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the com-plex interplay between aerosol and clouds. 7SEAS is a comprehensive interdisciplinary atmospheric sciences program through international partnership of NASA, NRL, ONR and seven local institutions including those from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. While the original goal of 7SEAS is to iso-late the impacts of aerosol particles on weather and the environment, it is recognized that better understanding of SEA meteorological conditions, especially those associated with cloud formation and evolution, is critical to the success of the campaign. In this study we attempt to gain more insight into the dynamic and physical processes associated with low level clouds and atmospheric circulation at the regional scale over SEA, using the Navy’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS® ), a regional forecast model in operation at FNMOC since 1998. This effort comprises two main components. First, multiple-years of COAMPS operational forecasts over SEA are analyzed for basic climatology of atmospheric fea-tures. Second, mesoscale circulation and cloud properties are simulated at relatively higher resolution (15-km) for selected periods in the Gulf of Tonkin and adjacent coastal areas. Simulation results are compared to MODIS cloud observations and local sound-ings obtained during 7SEAS for model verifications. Atmospheric boundary layer proc-esses are examined in relation to spatial and temporal variations of cloud fields. The cur-rent work serves as an important step toward improving our understanding of the effects of aerosol particles on maritime clouds. The detailed analysis will be presented at the conference.

The Sensitivity of a Global Ocean Model to Wind Forcing: A Test Using Sea Level and Wind Observations from Satellites and Operational Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L. L.; Chao, Y.

1997-01-01

Investigated in this study is the response of a global ocean general circulation model to forcing provided by two wind products: operational analysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP); observations made by the ERS-1 radar scatterometer.

Sea Level Driven Marsh Expansion in a Coupled Model of Marsh Erosion, Forest Retreat, and Human Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, M. L.; Walters, D. C.; Reay, W.; Carr, J.

2016-12-01

Salt marsh ecosystem services depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here, we present a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands, and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how connectivity between adjacent ecosystems influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that ecogeomorphic feedbacks tend to stabilize soil elevations relative to sea level rise so that changes in marsh size are determined mostly by the competition between ecological transitions at the upland boundary, and physical erosion at the seaward boundary. Salt marsh loss and natural flood protection is nearly inevitable under rapid sea level rise rates where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit marsh migration into uplands. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. Together, this behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise, and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention. Analysis of 19th century maps and modern photographs from the Chesapeake Bay region confirm that migration rates are more sensitive to sea level rise than erosion rate, and indicate that transgression has thus far allowed marshes to survive the fastest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic Coast. This work suggests that the flux of organisms and sediment across adjacent ecosystems leads to an increase in system resilience that could not be inferred from studies that consider individual components of landscape change.

Distribution of Arctic and Pacific copepods and their habitat in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Hiroko; Matsuno, Kohei; Fujiwara, Amane; Onuka, Misaki; Yamaguchi, Atsushi; Ueno, Hiromichi; Watanuki, Yutaka; Kikuchi, Takashi

2016-08-01

The advection of warm Pacific water and the reduction in sea ice in the western Arctic Ocean may influence the abundance and distribution of copepods, a key component of food webs. To quantify the factors affecting the abundance of copepods in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas, we constructed habitat models explaining the spatial patterns of large and small Arctic and Pacific copepods separately. Copepods were sampled using NORPAC (North Pacific Standard) nets. The structures of water masses indexed by principle component analysis scores, satellite-derived timing of sea ice retreat, bottom depth and chlorophyll a concentration were integrated into generalized additive models as explanatory variables. The adequate models for all copepods exhibited clear continuous relationships between the abundance of copepods and the indexed water masses. Large Arctic copepods were abundant at stations where the bottom layer was saline; however they were scarce at stations where warm fresh water formed the upper layer. Small Arctic copepods were abundant at stations where the upper layer was warm and saline and the bottom layer was cold and highly saline. In contrast, Pacific copepods were abundant at stations where the Pacific-origin water mass was predominant (i.e. a warm, saline upper layer and saline and a highly saline bottom layer). All copepod groups showed a positive relationship with early sea ice retreat. Early sea ice retreat has been reported to initiate spring blooms in open water, allowing copepods to utilize more food while maintaining their high activity in warm water without sea ice and cold water. This finding indicates that early sea ice retreat has positive effects on the abundance of all copepod groups in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas, suggesting a change from a pelagic-benthic-type ecosystem to a pelagic-pelagic type.

Numerical study of electromagnetic scattering from one-dimensional nonlinear fractal sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Tao; He, Chao; William, Perrie; Kuang, Hai-Lan; Zou, Guang-Hui; Chen, Wei

2010-02-01

In recent years, linear fractal sea surface models have been developed for the sea surface in order to establish an electromagnetic backscattering model. Unfortunately, the sea surface is always nonlinear, particularly at high sea states. We present a nonlinear fractal sea surface model and derive an electromagnetic backscattering model. Using this model, we numerically calculate the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) of a nonlinear sea surface. Comparing the averaged NRCS between linear and nonlinear fractal models, we show that the NRCS of a linear fractal sea surface underestimates the NRCS of the real sea surface, especially for sea states with high fractal dimensions, and for dominant ocean surface gravity waves that are either very short or extremely long.

The role of sea ice dynamics in global climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hibler, William D., III

1992-01-01

The topics covered include the following: general characteristics of sea ice drift; sea ice rheology; ice thickness distribution; sea ice thermodynamic models; equilibrium thermodynamic models; effect of internal brine pockets and snow cover; model simulations of Arctic Sea ice; and sensitivity of sea ice models to climate change.

Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, J. Icarus; Holt, Jason T.; Blackford, Jerry; Proctor, Roger

2007-12-01

Marine systems models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, but far too little attention has been paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to ecosystem processes. Here we describe the application of summary error statistics to a complex 3D model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) run for the period 1988-1989 in the southern North Sea utilising information from the North Sea Project, which collected a wealth of observational data. We demonstrate that to understand model data misfit and the mechanisms creating errors, we need to use a hierarchy of techniques, including simple correlations, model bias, model efficiency, binary discriminator analysis and the distribution of model errors to assess model errors spatially and temporally. We also demonstrate that a linear cost function is an inappropriate measure of misfit. This analysis indicates that the model has some skill for all variables analysed. A summary plot of model performance indicates that model performance deteriorates as we move through the ecosystem from the physics, to the nutrients and plankton.

Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

2009-04-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

Relative sea level in the Western Mediterranean basin: A regional test of the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model and a constraint on late Holocene Antarctic deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Keven; Peltier, W. R.

2018-03-01

The Mediterranean Basin is a region of special interest in the study of past and present relative sea level evolution, given its location south of the ice sheets that covered large fractions of Northern Europe during the last glaciation, the large number of biological, geological and archaeological sea level indicators that have been retrieved from its coastal regions, as well as its high density of modern coastal infrastructure. Models of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) process provide reconstructions of past relative sea level evolution, and can be tested for validity against past sea level indicators from the region. It is demonstrated herein that the latest ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model of the GIA process, the North American component of which was refined using a full suite of geophysical observables, is able to reconcile the vast majority of uniformly analyzed relative sea level constraints available for the Western part of the Mediterranean basin, a region to which it was not tuned. We also revisit herein the previously published interpretations of relative sea level information obtained from Roman-era coastal Mediterranean "fish tanks", analyze the far-field influence of the rate of late Holocene Antarctic ice sheet melting history on the exceptionally detailed relative sea level history available from southern Tunisia, and extend the analysis to complementary constraints on the history of Antarctic ice-sheet melting available from islands in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The analyses reported herein provide strong support for the global "exportability" of the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model, a result that speaks directly to the ability of spherically symmetric models of the internal viscoelastic structure to explain globally distributed observations, while also identifying isolated regions of remaining misfit which will benefit from further study.

Analysis of the most recent data of Cascais Tide Gauge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antunes, Carlos; Taborda, Rui; Mendes, Virgílio B.

2010-05-01

In order to meet international standards and to integrate sea level changes and tsunami monitoring networks, Cascais tide gauge, one of the oldest in the world, has been upgraded in 2003 with new acoustic equipment with digital data acquisition, temperature and air-pressure sensors, and internet connection for real time data. The new tide gauge is located very close to the old analogical gauge, which is still working. Datum links between both gauges and the permanent GPS station of Cascais were made and height differences between gauges and the GPS station have been monitored to verify site stability and to estimate the absolute vertical velocity of the site, and therefore, the absolute sea level changes. Tide gauge data from 2000 to 2009 has been analyzed and relative and absolute sea level rise rates have been estimated. The estimation of sea level rise rate with the short baseline of 10 years is made with the daily mean sea level data corrected from the inverse barometric effect. The relative sea level trend is obtained from a 60-day moving average run over the corrected daily mean sea level. The estimated rate has shown greater stability in contrast to the analysis of daily mean sea level raw data, which shows greater variability and uncertainty. Our results show a sea level rise rate of 2.6 mm/year (± 0.3 mm/year), higher than previous rates (2.1 mm/year for 1990 decade and 1.6 mm/year from 1920 to 2000), which is compatible with a sea level rise acceleration scenario. From the analysis of Cascais GPS data, for the period 1990.0 to 2010.0 we obtain an uplift rate of 0.3 mm/year leading to an absolute sea level rise of 2.9 mm/year for Cascais, under the assumption, as predicted by the ICE-5G model, that Cascais has no vertical displacement caused by the post-glacial isostatic adjustment.

Evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCMs to accurately simulate the Etesian wind system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dafka, Stella; Xoplaki, Elena; Toreti, Andrea; Zanis, Prodromos; Tyrlis, Evangelos; Luterbacher, Jürg

2016-04-01

The Etesians are among the most persistent regional scale wind systems in the lower troposphere that blow over the Aegean Sea during the extended summer season. ΑAn evaluation of the high spatial resolution, EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is here presented. The study documents the performance of the individual models in representing the basic spatiotemporal pattern of the Etesian wind system for the period 1989-2004. The analysis is mainly focused on evaluating the abilities of the RCMs in simulating the surface wind over the Aegean Sea and the associated large scale atmospheric circulation. Mean Sea Level Pressure (SLP), wind speed and geopotential height at 500 hPa are used. The simulated results are validated against reanalysis datasets (20CR-v2c and ERA20-C) and daily observational measurements (12:00 UTC) from the mainland Greece and Aegean Sea. The analysis highlights the general ability of the RCMs to capture the basic features of the Etesians, but also indicates considerable deficiencies for selected metrics, regions and subperiods. Some of these deficiencies include the significant underestimation (overestimation) of the mean SLP in the northeastern part of the analysis domain in all subperiods (for May and June) when compared to 20CR-v2c (ERA20-C), the significant overestimation of the anomalous ridge over the Balkans and central Europe and the underestimation of the wind speed over the Aegean Sea. Future work will include an assessment of the Etesians for the next decades using EURO-CORDEX projections under different RCP scenarios and estimate the future potential for wind energy production.

Development of Composite Materials with High Passive Damping Properties

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-05-15

frequency response function analysis. Sound transmission through sandwich panels was studied using the statistical energy analysis (SEA). Modal density...2.2.3 Finite element models 14 2.2.4 Statistical energy analysis method 15 CHAPTER 3 ANALYSIS OF DAMPING IN SANDWICH MATERIALS. 24 3.1 Equation of...sheets and the core. 2.2.4 Statistical energy analysis method Finite element models are generally only efficient for problems at low and middle frequencies

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

PubMed Central

Nowicki, Sophie M.J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

2018-01-01

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice sheet – climate models as well as standalone ice sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change. PMID:29697697

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) Contribution to CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

2016-01-01

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheetclimate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

(abstract) Using TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level Observations to Test the Sensitivity of an Ocean Model to Wind Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Chao, Yi

1996-01-01

It has been demonstrated that current-generation global ocean general circulation models (OGCM) are able to simulate large-scale sea level variations fairly well. In this study, a GFDL/MOM-based OGCM was used to investigate its sensitivity to different wind forcing. Simulations of global sea level using wind forcing from the ERS-1 Scatterometer and the NMC operational analysis were compared to the observations made by the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) radar altimeter for a two-year period. The result of the study has demonstrated the sensitivity of the OGCM to the quality of wind forcing, as well as the synergistic use of two spaceborne sensors in advancing the study of wind-driven ocean dynamics.

Mechanisms of long-term mean sea level variability in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dangendorf, Sönke; Calafat, Francisco; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even; Richter, Kristin; Jensen, Jürgen

2015-04-01

We examine mean sea level (MSL) variations in the North Sea on timescales ranging from months to decades under the consideration of different forcing factors since the late 19th century. We use multiple linear regression models, which are validated for the second half of the 20th century against the output of a state-of-the-art tide+surge model (HAMSOM), to determine the barotropic response of the ocean to fluctuations in atmospheric forcing. We demonstrate that local atmospheric forcing mainly triggers MSL variability on timescales up to a few years, with the inverted barometric effect dominating the variability along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind (piling up the water along the coast) controlling the MSL variability in the south from Belgium up to Denmark. However, in addition to the large inter-annual sea level variability there is also a considerable fraction of decadal scale variability. We show that on decadal timescales MSL variability in the North Sea mainly reflects steric changes, which are mostly remotely forced. A spatial correlation analysis of altimetry observations and baroclinic ocean model outputs suggests evidence for a coherent signal extending from the Norwegian shelf down to the Canary Islands. This supports the theory of longshore wind forcing along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic causing coastally trapped waves to propagate along the continental slope. With a combination of oceanographic and meteorological measurements we demonstrate that ~80% of the decadal sea level variability in the North Sea can be explained as response of the ocean to longshore wind forcing, including boundary wave propagation in the Northeast Atlantic. These findings have important implications for (i) detecting significant accelerations in North Sea MSL, (ii) the conceptual set up of regional ocean models in terms of resolution and boundary conditions, and (iii) the development of adequate and realistic regional climate change projections.

Wind scatterometry with improved ambiguity selection and rain modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Draper, David Willis

Although generally accurate, the quality of SeaWinds on QuikSCAT scatterometer ocean vector winds is compromised by certain natural phenomena and retrieval algorithm limitations. This dissertation addresses three main contributors to scatterometer estimate error: poor ambiguity selection, estimate uncertainty at low wind speeds, and rain corruption. A quality assurance (QA) analysis performed on SeaWinds data suggests that about 5% of SeaWinds data contain ambiguity selection errors and that scatterometer estimation error is correlated with low wind speeds and rain events. Ambiguity selection errors are partly due to the "nudging" step (initialization from outside data). A sophisticated new non-nudging ambiguity selection approach produces generally more consistent wind than the nudging method in moderate wind conditions. The non-nudging method selects 93% of the same ambiguities as the nudged data, validating both techniques, and indicating that ambiguity selection can be accomplished without nudging. Variability at low wind speeds is analyzed using tower-mounted scatterometer data. According to theory, below a threshold wind speed, the wind fails to generate the surface roughness necessary for wind measurement. A simple analysis suggests the existence of the threshold in much of the tower-mounted scatterometer data. However, the backscatter does not "go to zero" beneath the threshold in an uncontrolled environment as theory suggests, but rather has a mean drop and higher variability below the threshold. Rain is the largest weather-related contributor to scatterometer error, affecting approximately 4% to 10% of SeaWinds data. A simple model formed via comparison of co-located TRMM PR and SeaWinds measurements characterizes the average effect of rain on SeaWinds backscatter. The model is generally accurate to within 3 dB over the tropics. The rain/wind backscatter model is used to simultaneously retrieve wind and rain from SeaWinds measurements. The simultaneous wind/rain (SWR) estimation procedure can improve wind estimates during rain, while providing a scatterometer-based rain rate estimate. SWR also affords improved rain flagging for low to moderate rain rates. QuikSCAT-retrieved rain rates correlate well with TRMM PR instantaneous measurements and TMI monthly rain averages. SeaWinds rain measurements can be used to supplement data from other rain-measuring instruments, filling spatial and temporal gaps in coverage.

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management.

PubMed

Oddo, Perry C; Lee, Ben S; Garner, Gregory G; Srikrishnan, Vivek; Reed, Patrick M; Forest, Chris E; Keller, Klaus

2017-09-05

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modelling near field regional uplift patterns in West Greenland/Disko Bay with plane-Earth finite element models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meldgaard, Asger; Nielsen, Lars; Iaffaldano, Giampiero

2017-04-01

Relative sea level data, primarily obtained through isolation basin analysis in western Greenland and on Disko Island, indicates asynchronous rates of uplift during the Early Holocene with larger rates of uplift in southern Disko Bay compared to the northern part of the bay. Similar short-wavelength variations can be inferred from the Holocene marine limit as observations on the north and south side of Disko Island differ by as much as 60 m. While global isostatic adjustment models are needed to account for far field contributions to the relative sea level and for the calculation of accurate ocean functions, they are generally not suited for a detailed analysis of the short-wavelength uplift patterns observed close to present ice margins. This is in part due to the excessive computational cost required for sufficient resolution, and because these models generally ignore regional lateral heterogeneities in mantle and lithosphere rheology. To mitigate this problem, we perform sensitivity tests to investigate the effects of near field loading on a regional plane-Earth finite element model of the lithosphere and mantle of the Disko Bay area, where the global isostatic uplift chronology is well documented. By loading the model area through detailed regional ocean function and ice models, and by including a high resolution topography model of the area, we seek to assess the isostatic rebound generated by surface processes with wavelengths similar to those of the observed rebound signal. We also investigate possible effects of varying lithosphere and mantle rheology, which may play an important role in explaining the rebound signal. We use the abundance of relative sea level curves obtained in the region primarily through isolation basin analysis on Disko Island to constrain the parameters of the Earth model.

Spatial-temporal analysis of sea level changes in China seas and neighboring oceans by merged altimeter data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yao; Zhou, Bin; Yu, Zhifeng; Lei, Hui; Sun, Jiamin; Zhu, Xingrui; Liu, Congjin

2017-01-01

The knowledge of sea level changes is critical important for social, economic and scientific development in coastal areas. Satellite altimeter makes it possible to observe long term and large scale dynamic changes in the ocean, contiguous shelf seas and coastal zone. In this paper, 1993-2015 altimeter data of Topex/Poseidon and its follow-on missions is used to get a time serious of continuous and homogeneous sea level anomaly gridding product. The sea level rising rate is 0.39 cm/yr in China Seas and the neighboring oceans, 0.37 cm/yr in the Bo and Yellow Sea, 0.29 cm/yr in the East China Sea and 0.40 cm/yr in the South China Sea. The mean sea level and its rising rate are spatial-temporal non-homogeneous. The mean sea level shows opposite characteristics in coastal seas versus open oceans. The Bo and Yellow Sea has the most significant seasonal variability. The results are consistent with in situ data observation by the Nation Ocean Agency of China. The coefficient of variability model is introduced to describe the spatial-temporal variability. Results show that the variability in coastal seas is stronger than that in open oceans, especially the seas off the entrance area of the river, indicating that the validation of altimeter data is less reasonable in these seas.

Resilience of branching and massive corals to wave loading under sea level rise--a coupled computational fluid dynamics-structural analysis.

PubMed

Baldock, Tom E; Karampour, Hassan; Sleep, Rachael; Vyltla, Anisha; Albermani, Faris; Golshani, Aliasghar; Callaghan, David P; Roff, George; Mumby, Peter J

2014-09-15

Measurements of coral structural strength are coupled with a fluid dynamics-structural analysis to investigate the resilience of coral to wave loading under sea level rise and a typical Great Barrier Reef lagoon wave climate. The measured structural properties were used to determine the wave conditions and flow velocities that lead to structural failure. Hydrodynamic modelling was subsequently used to investigate the type of the bathymetry where coral is most vulnerable to breakage under cyclonic wave conditions, and how sea level rise (SLR) changes this vulnerability. Massive corals are determined not to be vulnerable to wave induced structural damage, whereas branching corals are susceptible at wave induced orbital velocities exceeding 0.5m/s. Model results from a large suite of idealised bathymetry suggest that SLR of 1m or a loss of skeleton strength of order 25% significantly increases the area of reef flat where branching corals are exposed to damaging wave induced flows. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Natural radionuclides tracing in marine surface waters along the northern coast of Oman Sea by combining the radioactivity analysis, oceanic currents and the SWAN model results.

PubMed

Zare, Mohammad Reza; Mostajaboddavati, Mojtaba; Kamali, Mahdi; Tari, Marziyeh; Mosayebi, Sanaz; Mortazavi, Mohammad Seddigh

2015-03-15

This study aims to establish a managed sampling plan for rapid estimate of natural radio-nuclides diffusion in the northern coast of the Oman Sea. First, the natural radioactivity analysis in 36 high volume surface water samples was carried out using a portable high-resolution gamma-ray spectrometry. Second, the oceanic currents in the northern coast were investigated. Then, the third generation spectral SWAN model was utilized to simulate wave parameters. Direction of natural radioactivity propagation was coupled with the preferable wave vectors and oceanic currents direction that face to any marine pollution, these last two factors will contribute to increase or decrease of pollution in each grid. The results were indicated that the natural radioactivity concentration between the grids 8600 and 8604 is gathered in the grid 8600 and between the grids 8605 and 8608 is propagated toward middle part of Oman Sea. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use of copula functions for predictive analysis of correlations between extreme storm tides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domino, Krzysztof; Błachowicz, Tomasz; Ciupak, Maurycy

2014-11-01

In this paper we present a method used in quantitative description of weakly predictable hydrological, extreme events at inland sea. Investigations for correlations between variations of individual measuring points, employing combined statistical methods, were carried out. As a main tool for this analysis we used a two-dimensional copula function sensitive for correlated extreme effects. Additionally, a new proposed methodology, based on Detrended Fluctuations Analysis (DFA) and Anomalous Diffusion (AD), was used for the prediction of negative and positive auto-correlations and associated optimum choice of copula functions. As a practical example we analysed maximum storm tides data recorded at five spatially separated places at the Baltic Sea. For the analysis we used Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank copula functions and introduced the reversed Clayton copula. The application of our research model is associated with modelling the risk of high storm tides and possible storm flooding.

Numerical Analysis of the Effect of Active Wind Speed and Direction on Circulation of Sea of Azov Water with and without Allowance for the Water Exchange through the Kerch Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherkesov, L. V.; Shul'ga, T. Ya.

2018-01-01

The effect of seawater movement through the Kerch Strait for extreme deviations in the level and speed of currents in the Sea of Azov caused by the action of climate wind fields has been studied using the Princeton ocean model (POM), a general three-dimensional nonlinear model of ocean circulation. Formation of the water flow through the strait is caused by the long-term action of the same type of atmospheric processes. The features of the water dynamics under conditions of changing intensity and active wind direction have been studied. Numerical experiments were carried out for two versions of model Sea of Azov basins: closed (without the Kerch Strait) and with a fluid boundary located in the Black Sea. The simulation results have shown that allowance for the strait leads to a significant change in the velocities of steady currents and level deviations at wind speeds greater than 5 m/s. The most significant effect on the parameters of steady-state movements is exerted by the speed of the wind that generates them; allowance for water exchange through the strait is less important. Analysis of the directions of atmospheric circulation has revealed that the response generated by the movement of water through the strait is most pronounced when a southeast wind is acting.

Internet-based Modeling, Mapping, and Analysis for the Greater Everglades (IMMAGE; Version 1.0): web-based tools to assess the impact of sea level rise in south Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hearn, Paul; Strong, David; Swain, Eric; Decker, Jeremy

2013-01-01

South Florida's Greater Everglades area is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, due to its rich endowment of animal and plant species and its heavily populated urban areas along the coast. Rising sea levels are expected to have substantial impacts on inland flooding, the depth and extent of surge from coastal storms, the degradation of water supplies by saltwater intrusion, and the integrity of plant and animal habitats. Planners and managers responsible for mitigating these impacts require advanced tools to help them more effectively identify areas at risk. The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Internet-based Modeling, Mapping, and Analysis for the Greater Everglades (IMMAGE) Web site has been developed to address these needs by providing more convenient access to projections from models that forecast the effects of sea level rise on surface water and groundwater, the extent of surge and resulting economic losses from coastal storms, and the distribution of habitats. IMMAGE not only provides an advanced geographic information system (GIS) interface to support decision making, but also includes topic-based modules that explain and illustrate key concepts for nontechnical users. The purpose of this report is to familiarize both technical and nontechnical users with the IMMAGE Web site and its various applications.

Evaluation of wind induced currents modeling along the Southern Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohluly, Asghar; Esfahani, Fariba Sadat; Montazeri Namin, Masoud; Chegini, Fatemeh

2018-02-01

To improve our understanding of the Caspian Sea hydrodynamics, its circulation is simulated with special focus on wind-driven currents of its southern basin. The hydrodynamic models are forced with a newly developed fine resolution wind field to increase the accuracy of current modeling. A 2D shallow water equation model and a 3D baroclinic model are applied separately to examine the performance of each model for specific applications in the Caspian Sea. The model results are validated against recent field measurements including AWAC and temperature observations in the southern continental shelf region. Results show that the 2D model is able to well predict the depth-averaged current speed in storm conditions in narrow area of southern coasts. This finding suggests physical oceanographers apply 2D modeling as a more affordable method for extreme current speed analysis at the continental shelf region. On the other hand the 3D model demonstrates a better performance in reproducing monthly mean circulation and hence is preferable for surface circulation of Caspian Sea. Monthly sea surface circulation fields of the southern basin reveal a dipole cyclonic-anticyclonic pattern, a dominant eastward current along the southern coasts which intensifies from May to November and a dominant southward current along the eastern coasts in all months except February when the flow is northward. Monthly mean wind fields exhibit two main patterns including a north-south pattern occurring at warm months and collision of two wind fronts especially in the cold months. This collision occurs on a narrow region at the southern continental shelf regions. Due to wind field complexities, it leads to a major source of uncertainty in predicting the wind-driven currents. However, this source of uncertainty is significantly alleviated by applying a fine resolution wind field.

A nonstationary analysis for the Northern Adriatic extreme sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masina, Marinella; Lamberti, Alberto

2013-09-01

The historical data from the Trieste, Venice, Porto Corsini, and Rimini tide gauges have been used to investigate the spatial and temporal changes in extreme high water levels in the Northern Adriatic. A detailed analysis of annual mean sea level evolution at the three longest operating stations shows a coherent behavior both on a regional and global scale. A slight increase in magnitude of extreme water elevations, after the removal of the regularized annual mean sea level necessary to eliminate the effect of local subsidence and sea level rise, is found at the Venice and Porto Corsini stations. It seems to be mainly associated with a wind regime change occurred in the 1990s, due to an intensification of Bora wind events after their decrease in frequency and intensity during the second half of the 20th century. The extreme values, adjusted for the annual mean sea level trend, are modeled using a time-dependent GEV distribution. The inclusion of seasonality in the GEV parameters considerably improves the data fitting. The interannual fluctuations of the detrended monthly maxima exhibit a significant correlation with the variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. The different coast exposure to the Bora and Sirocco winds and their seasonal character explain the various seasonal patterns of extreme sea levels observed at the tide gauges considered in the present analysis.

Mechanical sea-ice strength parameterized as a function of ice temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hata, Yukie; Tremblay, Bruno

2016-04-01

Mechanical sea-ice strength is key for a better simulation of the timing of landlock ice onset and break-up in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). We estimate the mechanical strength of sea ice in the CAA by analyzing the position record measured by the several buoys deployed in the CAA between 2008 and 2013, and wind data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre's Global Deterministic Prediction System (CMC_GDPS) REforecasts (CGRF). First, we calculate the total force acting on the ice using the wind data. Next, we estimate upper (lower) bounds on the sea-ice strength by identifying cases when the sea ice deforms (does not deform) under the action of a given total force. Results from this analysis show that the ice strength of landlock sea ice in the CAA is approximately 40 kN/m on the landfast ice onset (in ice growth season). Additionally, it becomes approximately 10 kN/m on the landfast ice break-up (in melting season). The ice strength decreases with ice temperature increase, which is in accord with results from Johnston [2006]. We also include this new parametrization of sea-ice strength as a function of ice temperature in a coupled slab ocean sea ice model. The results from the model with and without the new parametrization are compared with the buoy data from the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP).

Using observed load distributions with a simple model to analyse the epidemiology of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) on sea trout (Salmo trutta).

PubMed

Murray, Alexander G

2002-06-01

Sea lice are ectoparasites of salmonids that have been associated with the recent decline in sea trout numbers in north-west Europe. Observed patterns of louse load distribution between sea trout in the seas surrounding the UK, Ireland and Norway and a simple model have been used to analyse the epidemiology of lice. Loads are aggregated and deviate strongly from the Poisson distribution, although less than is observed with many other parasites. The louse numbers on fish from offshore sites are slightly less variable than for fish from coastal sites with comparable mean loads. Analysis of louse development stages and sexes shows that selection between hosts by sea lice plays a limited role. If host selection is absent, then associated poor condition would be caused by, not the cause of, high louse burdens; however the absence of such selection is not proved. Scenarios with infection that is patchy in space and time best generate the aggregated load patterns observed; these patches accord with observed swarms of copepodids. Prevalence patterns may indicate the movement of trout between environments. Control of copepodids in infection 'hot spots', either directly or through control of louse egg production in their catchment, may reduce louse loads on wild sea trout and, in particular, extreme and damaging loads.

Past ice-sheet behaviour: retreat scenarios and changing controls in the Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halberstadt, Anna Ruth W.; Simkins, Lauren M.; Greenwood, Sarah L.; Anderson, John B.

2016-05-01

Studying the history of ice-sheet behaviour in the Ross Sea, Antarctica's largest drainage basin can improve our understanding of patterns and controls on marine-based ice-sheet dynamics and provide constraints for numerical ice-sheet models. Newly collected high-resolution multibeam bathymetry data, combined with two decades of legacy multibeam and seismic data, are used to map glacial landforms and reconstruct palaeo ice-sheet drainage. During the Last Glacial Maximum, grounded ice reached the continental shelf edge in the eastern but not western Ross Sea. Recessional geomorphic features in the western Ross Sea indicate virtually continuous back-stepping of the ice-sheet grounding line. In the eastern Ross Sea, well-preserved linear features and a lack of small-scale recessional landforms signify rapid lift-off of grounded ice from the bed. Physiography exerted a first-order control on regional ice behaviour, while sea floor geology played an important subsidiary role. Previously published deglacial scenarios for Ross Sea are based on low-spatial-resolution marine data or terrestrial observations; however, this study uses high-resolution basin-wide geomorphology to constrain grounding-line retreat on the continental shelf. Our analysis of retreat patterns suggests that (1) retreat from the western Ross Sea was complex due to strong physiographic controls on ice-sheet drainage; (2) retreat was asynchronous across the Ross Sea and between troughs; (3) the eastern Ross Sea largely deglaciated prior to the western Ross Sea following the formation of a large grounding-line embayment over Whales Deep; and (4) our glacial geomorphic reconstruction converges with recent numerical models that call for significant and complex East Antarctic ice sheet and West Antarctic ice sheet contributions to the ice flow in the Ross Sea.

Tidal energetics: Studies with a barotropic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, James Scott

The tidal energy from luni-solar gravitational forcing is dissipated principally through the dissipation of oceanic tides. Recent estimates using disparate methods, including analysis of satellite orbits and the timing of ancient eclipses, now indicate that this dissipation totals approximately 3.5 terawatts. However, the mechanisms and spatial distribution of this dissipation is not yet fully understood. In this work, three different aspects of tidal energetics are investigated with a variable resolution barotropic tidal model. The distribution of tidal energy, dissipation and energy flux are examined using high resolution models of several marginal seas: the European shelf, the Sea of Okhotsk, the Yellow and East China Seas, the South China Sea and the Bering Sea. Most modern tide models dissipate tidal energy with a quadratic friction parameterization of bottom friction. Since such dissipation depends nonlinearly on the velocity of the tidal current, these models dissipate primarily in shallow seas where current magnitudes are high. Without assimilating observational data, such tidal models have unreasonably high levels of tidal-period averaged kinetic and potential energies. I have added a linear friction parameterization to the traditional quadratic formulation and am able to obtain realistic tidal energy levels with an unassimilated model. The resulting model is used to investigate the tidal energetics of the recent geological past when sea level was 50 meters higher and 120 meters lower than at the present time. Long-period tides are of small enough amplitude that their energetics are an almost negligible part of the total tidal energy budget. However, the behavior of these tides yields insights into the response of the ocean to large scale forcing. We have modeled the lunar fortnightly (M f) and lunar monthly (Mm) tidal components and determined that the ratio of the Mf potential-to-kinetic energy ratio to that of Mm is about 3.9, consistent with values expected for long Rossby wave dynamics. Also, we obtain quality (Q) values for the Mf and Mm tides of 5.9 and 6.2 respectively which is consistent with recent inferences of basin circulation responses of Q of about 5.5 for 5-day synoptic forcing.

A numerical study of the barotropic tides and tidal energy distribution in the Indonesian seas with the assimilated finite volume coastal ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yang; Bao, Xianwen; Yu, Huaming; Kuang, Liang

2012-04-01

The tides and tidal energetics in the Indonesian seas are simulated using a three-dimensional finite volume coastal ocean model. The high-resolution coastline-fitted model is configured to better resolve the hydrodynamic processes around the numerous barrier islands. A large model domain is adopted to minimize the uncertainty adjacent to open boundaries. The model results with elevation assimilation based on a simple nudge scheme faithfully reproduced the general features of the barotropic tides in the Indonesian Seas. The mean root-mean-square errors between the observed and simulated tidal constants are 2.3, 1.1, 2.4, and 1.5 cm for M2, S2, K1, and O1, respectively. Analysis of the model solutions indicates that the semidiurnal tides in the Indonesian Seas are primarily dominated by the Indian Ocean, whereas the diurnal tides in this region are mainly influenced by the Pacific Ocean, which is consistent with previous studies. Examinations of tidal energy transport reveal that the tidal energy for both of the simulated tidal constituents are transported from the Indian Ocean into the IS mainly through the Lombok Strait and the Timor Sea, whereas only M2 energy enters the Banda Sea and continues northward. The tidal energy dissipates the most in the passages on both sides of Timor Island, with the maximum M2 and K1 tidal energy transport reaching about 750 and 650 kW m-1, respectively. The total energy losses of the four dominant constituents in the IS are nearly 338 GW, with the M2 constituent dissipating 240.8 GW. It is also shown that the bottom dissipation rate for the M2 tide is about 1-2 order of magnitudes larger than that of the other three tidal components in the Indonesian seas.

Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Ocean Model Response to Hurricane Ivan (PREPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-18

analysis of upper-limb meridional overturning circulation interior ocean pathways in the tropical/subtropical Atlantic . In: Interhemispheric Water...diminishing returns are encountered when either resolution is increased. 3 1. Introduction Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models have become...northwest Caribbean Sea 4 and GOM. Evaluation is difficult because ocean general circulation models incorporate a large suite of numerical algorithms

Simulating the Cyclone Induced Turbulent Mixing in the Bay of Bengal using COAWST Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, K. R.; Nigam, T.; Pant, V.

2017-12-01

Mixing in the upper oceanic layers (up to a few tens of meters from surface) is an important process to understand the evolution of sea surface properties. Enhanced mixing due to strong wind forcing at surface leads to deepening of mixed layer that affects the air-sea exchange of heat and momentum fluxes and modulates sea surface temperature (SST). In the present study, we used Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model to demonstrate and quantify the enhanced cyclone induced turbulent mixing in case of a severe cyclonic storm. The COAWST model was configured over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and used to simulate the atmospheric and oceanic conditions prevailing during the tropical cyclone (TC) Phailin that occurred over the BoB during 10-15 October 2013. The model simulated cyclone track was validated with IMD best-track and model SST validated with daily AVHRR SST data. Validation shows that model simulated track & intensity, SST and salinity were in good agreement with observations and the cyclone induced cooling of the sea surface was well captured by the model. Model simulations show a considerable deepening (by 10-15 m) of the mixed layer and shoaling of thermocline during TC Phailin. The power spectrum analysis was performed on the zonal and meridional baroclinic current components, which shows strongest energy at 14 m depth. Model results were analyzed to investigate the non-uniform energy distribution in the water column from surface up to the thermocline depth. The rotary spectra analysis highlights the downward direction of turbulent mixing during the TC Phailin period. Model simulations were used to quantify and interpret the near-inertial mixing, which were generated by cyclone induced strong wind stress and the near-inertial energy. These near-inertial oscillations are responsible for the enhancement of the mixing operative in the strong post-monsoon (October-November) stratification in the BoB.

Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Merryfield, William; Ambadan, Jaison T.; Berg, Aaron; Bichet, Adéline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan; Haas, Christian; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Frédéric; McCusker, Kelly; Sigmond, Michael; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Tandon, Neil F.; Thackeray, Chad; Tremblay, Bruno; Zwiers, Francis W.

2018-04-01

The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their use in operational seasonal prediction and for generating large ensembles of multidecadal simulations. Improvements in climate-prediction systems like CanSIPS rely not just on simulation quality but also on using novel observational constraints and the ready transfer of research to an operational setting. Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time.

Surface water mass composition changes captured by cores of Arctic land-fast sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, I. J.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.; Van Hale, R.; Gough, A. J.; Fukamachi, Y.; Jones, J.

2016-04-01

In the Arctic, land-fast sea ice growth can be influenced by fresher water from rivers and residual summer melt. This paper examines a method to reconstruct changes in water masses using oxygen isotope measurements of sea ice cores. To determine changes in sea water isotope composition over the course of the ice growth period, the output of a sea ice thermodynamic model (driven with reanalysis data, observations of snow depth, and freeze-up dates) is used along with sea ice oxygen isotope measurements and an isotopic fractionation model. Direct measurements of sea ice growth rates are used to validate the output of the sea ice growth model. It is shown that for sea ice formed during the 2011/2012 ice growth season at Barrow, Alaska, large changes in isotopic composition of the ocean waters were captured by the sea ice isotopic composition. Salinity anomalies in the ocean were also tracked by moored instruments. These data indicate episodic advection of meteoric water, having both lower salinity and lower oxygen isotopic composition, during the winter sea ice growth season. Such advection of meteoric water during winter is surprising, as no surface meltwater and no local river discharge should be occurring at this time of year in that area. How accurately changes in water masses as indicated by oxygen isotope composition can be reconstructed using oxygen isotope analysis of sea ice cores is addressed, along with methods/strategies that could be used to further optimize the results. The method described will be useful for winter detection of meteoric water presence in Arctic fast ice regions, which is important for climate studies in a rapidly changing Arctic. Land-fast sea ice effective fractionation coefficients were derived, with a range of +1.82‰ to +2.52‰. Those derived effective fractionation coefficients will be useful for future water mass component proportion calculations. In particular, the equations given can be used to inform choices made when engaging in end member determination for working out the component proportions of water masses.

Exchanges between the shelf and the deep Black Sea: an integrated analysis of physical mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shapiro, Georgy; Wobus, Fred; Zatsepin, Andrei; Akivis, Tatiana; Zhou, Feng

2017-04-01

This study provides an integrated analysis of exchanges of water, salt and heat between the north-western Black Sea shelf and the deep basin. Three contributing physical mechanisms are quantified, namely: Ekman drift, transport by mesoscale eddies at the edge of the NW Black Sea shelf and non-local cascading assisted by the rim current and mesoscale eddies. The semi-enclosed nature of the Black Sea together with its unique combination of an extensive shelf area in the North West and the deep central part make it sensitive to natural variations of fluxes, including the fluxes between the biologically productive shelf and predominantly anoxic deep sea. Exchanges between the shelf and deep sea play an important role in forming the balance of waters, nutrients and pollution within the coastal areas, and hence the level of human-induced eutrophication of coastal waters (MSFD Descriptor 5). In this study we analyse physical mechanisms and quantify shelf-deep sea exchange processes in the Black Sea sector using the NEMO ocean circulation model. The model is configured and optimized taking into account specific features of the Black Sea, and validated against in-situ and satellite observations. The study uses NEMO-BLS24 numerical model which is based on the NEMO codebase v3.2.1 with amendments introduced by the UK Met Office. The model has a horizontal resolution of 1/24×1/24° and a hybrid s-on-top-of-z vertical coordinate system with a total of 33 layers. The horizontal viscosity/diffusivity operator is rotated to reduce the contamination of vertical diffusion/viscosity by large values of their horizontal counterparts. The bathymetry is processed from ETOPO5 and capped to 1550m. Atmospheric forcing for the period 1989-2012 is given by the Drakkar Forcing Set v5.2. For comparison, the NCEP atmospheric forcing also used for 2005. The climatological runoff from 8 major rivers is included. We run the model individually for 24 calendar years without data assimilation. For the analysis of propagation of cold waters formed on the NW Black Sea shelf we use a passive tracer method. The tracer is treated as an artificial dye that "stains" a water parcel within the defined area as soon as it cooled below a 7°C temperature. To quantify the shelf-deep sea exchange, the transport of water, salt and heat between the NW shelf and deep-sea regions is calculated across an enclosed boundary (a "fence") approximating the 200 m isobath on the NW shelf plus two short segments connected to the coast. Partial transports are also calculated for the surface layer (top 20 m) and the under-surface layer (from 20 m to the bottom). The 20 m level is approximately equal to the Ekman depth in summer. It is also close to the depth of the biologically active euphotic layer. For validation of the NEMO-BLS24 configuration we present comparisons of the model with satellite-derived sea surface temperature measurements and with ship-derived cross-sections that show the vertical structure. We also compare the model to observations carried out during Black Sea cruises in 2004, 2007 and 2008. The model represents well the sea surface temperature, the depth of the upper mixed layer and the depth of the CIL, while overestimating the temperature in the core of the CIL by approx. 0.5 °C. Mechanism 1: exchanges due to a frontal eddy. Numerical simulations for the year 2005 (for which comprehensive remote sensed data is available) shows that a significant cross-shelf transport was generated by a long-lived anticyclonic eddy impinging on the shelf, sometimes assisted by a cyclonic meander of the Rim Current. Over 69 days between April 23 and June 30, 2005, a volume of 2.84×10^12 m3 of water (102% of the entire volume of the shelf waters) was transported out of the shelf and a similar amount onto the shelf (see details in Zhou et al. 2014). Mechanism 2: exchanges due to Ekman drift. During the short but intensive wind events of April 15 - 22 and July 1 - 4, 2005, 23% and 16% of shelf waters, were moved into the deep-sea region, respectively. Due to the high intensity of cross-shelf exchanges, the average renewal time for the NW shelf in the Black Sea was only 28 days in the summer of 2005 (Zhou et al. 2014). Mechanism 3: exchanges due to assisted cascading. Using the model run for 2003 as an example, we examine the fate of the tracer after 5.5 months of model integration. At 100m depth we identify four anti-cyclonic eddies: two eddies west of the Crimea peninsula, one north of Sinop and one west of Batumi. These eddies can be seen to assist cascading into the basin interior of cold waters formed on a shallow NW shelf to a depth greater than at which they were originally formed. The important result is that for many of the 24 studied years a significant proportion of dense shelf water does not cascade locally off the NW shelf, but is transported by the Rim Current over hundreds of kilometres before cascading into the deep basin in the southern and southeastern Black Sea. This work has been supported by EU FP7 PERSEUS, EU H2020 Sea Basin checkpoints Lot4 - Black Sea and a number of Chinese and Russian national projects. References Zhou, F., G. I. Shapiro, and F. Wobus, 2014: Cross-shelf exchange in the northwestern Black Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119, 2143-2164.

Temperature rise, sea level rise and increased radiative forcing - an application of cointegration methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmith, Torben; Thejll, Peter; Johansen, Søren

2016-04-01

We analyse the statistical relationship between changes in global temperature, global steric sea level and radiative forcing in order to reveal causal relationships. There are in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We therefore apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis, originating from the field of econometrics, which is able to correctly handle the analysis of series with trends and other long-range dependencies. Further, we find a relationship between steric sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the steric sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. This result is obtained both when analyzing observed data and data from a CMIP5 historical model run. Finally, we find that in the data from the historical run, the steric sea level, in turn, is driven by the external forcing. Finally, we demonstrate that combining these two results can lead to a novel estimate of radiative forcing back in time based on observations.

Re-examination of sea lamprey control policies for the St. Marys River: Completion of an adaptive management cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Michael L.; Brenden, Travis O.; Irwin, Brian J.

2015-01-01

The St. Marys River (SMR) historically has been a major producer of sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In the early 2000s, a decision analysis (DA) project was conducted to evaluate sea lamprey control policies for the SMR; this project suggested that an integrated policy of trapping, sterile male releases, and Bayluscide treatment was the most cost-effective policy. Further, it concluded that formal assessment of larval sea lamprey abundance and distribution in the SMR would be valuable for future evaluation of control strategies. We updated this earlier analysis, adding information from annual larval assessments conducted since 1999 and evaluating additional control policies. Bayluscide treatments continued to be critical for sea lamprey control, but high recruitment compensation minimized the effectiveness of trapping and sterile male release under current feasible ranges. Because Bayluscide control is costly, development of strategies to enhance trapping success remains a priority. This study illustrates benefits of an adaptive management cycle, wherein models inform decisions, are updated based on learning achieved from those decisions, and ultimately inform future decisions.

APL-UW Deep Water Propagation 2015-2017: Philippine Sea Data Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release: distribution is unlimited APL-UW Deep Water Propagation 2015-2017: Philippine Sea Data...the fundamental statistics of broadband low-frequency acoustical signals evolve during propagation through a dynamically-varying deep ocean. OBJECTIVES...Current models of signal randomization over long ranges in the deep ocean were developed for and tested in the North Pacific Ocean gyre. The

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Hoffman H. N.; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Zhou, Wen

2018-01-01

We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December-March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals-Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.

Influence of sea-ice coverage, sea-surface temperatures and latent heat release on baroclinic instability of an Arctic cyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, A.; Zhang, X.

2012-12-01

Arctic sea ice has shrunk drastically and Arctic storm activity has intensified over last decades. To improve understanding air-ice-sea interactions in the context of storm activity, we conducted a modeling study of a selected intense storm that invaded and was persistent for prolonged time in the central Arctic Ocean during March 16-22, 2011. A series of control and sensitivity simulations were carried out by employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which was configured using two nested domains at a resolution of 10 km for the inner domain and 30 km for the outer domain. The control simulations well captured the cyclone genesis, regeneration, track and intensity. Diagnostic analysis and a comparison between the and sensitivity experiments suggest that the strong intensity, regeneration, and long-lasting duration of the cyclone were driven by unusually sustained baroclinic instability, which was resulted due to (1) anomalously reduced sea-ice coverage and strong advection of heat, moisture and vorticity from the North Atlantic; and (2) a release of latent heat due to condensation.

Potential impact of remote sensing data on sea-state analysis and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardone, V. J.

1983-01-01

The severe North Atlantic storm which damaged the ocean liner Queen Elizabeth 2 (QE2) was studied to assess the impact of remotely sensed marine surface wind data obtained by SEASAT-A, on sea state specifications and forecasts. Alternate representations of the surface wind field in the QE2 storm were produced from the SEASAT enhanced data base, and from operational analyses based upon conventional data. The wind fields were used to drive a high resolution spectral ocean surface wave prediction model. Results show that sea state analyses would have been vastly improved during the period of storm formation and explosive development had remote sensing wind data been available in real time. A modest improvement in operational 12 to 24 hour wave forecasts would have followed automatically from the improved initial state specification made possible by the remote sensing data in both numerical and sea state prediction models. Significantly improved 24 to 48 hour wave forecasts require in addition to remote sensing data, refinement in the numerical and physical aspects of weather prediction models.

Impact of Damping Uncertainty on SEA Model Response Variance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiller, Noah; Cabell, Randolph; Grosveld, Ferdinand

2010-01-01

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) is commonly used to predict high-frequency vibroacoustic levels. This statistical approach provides the mean response over an ensemble of random subsystems that share the same gross system properties such as density, size, and damping. Recently, techniques have been developed to predict the ensemble variance as well as the mean response. However these techniques do not account for uncertainties in the system properties. In the present paper uncertainty in the damping loss factor is propagated through SEA to obtain more realistic prediction bounds that account for both ensemble and damping variance. The analysis is performed on a floor-equipped cylindrical test article that resembles an aircraft fuselage. Realistic bounds on the damping loss factor are determined from measurements acquired on the sidewall of the test article. The analysis demonstrates that uncertainties in damping have the potential to significantly impact the mean and variance of the predicted response.

Formation and spreading of Red Sea Outflow Water in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Ping; Bower, Amy S.; Smethie, William M.; Pratt, Larry J.

2015-09-01

Hydrographic data, chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) measurements collected in March 2010 and September-October 2011 in the Red Sea, as well as an idealized numerical experiment are used to study the formation and spreading of Red Sea Outflow Water (RSOW) in the Red Sea. Analysis of inert tracers, potential vorticity distributions, and model results confirm that RSOW is formed through mixed-layer deepening caused by sea surface buoyancy loss in winter in the northern Red Sea and reveal more details on RSOW spreading rates, pathways, and vertical structure. The southward spreading of RSOW after its formation is identified as a layer with minimum potential vorticity and maximum CFC-12 and SF6. Ventilation ages of seawater within the RSOW layer, calculated from the partial pressure of SF6 (pSF6), range from 2 years in the northern Red Sea to 15 years at 17°N. The distribution of the tracer ages is in agreement with the model circulation field which shows a rapid transport of RSOW from its formation region to the southern Red Sea where there are longer circulation pathways and hence longer residence time due to basin wide eddies. The mean residence time of RSOW within the Red Sea estimated from the pSF6 age is 4.7 years. This time scale is very close to the mean transit time (4.8 years) for particles from the RSOW formation region to reach the exit at the Strait of Bab el Mandeb in the numerical experiment.

Global Sea Level Rise and its Impact Estimation Model by Beach Mechanics, GDP, and Shoreline Length using Big Data Approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, A. A.

2016-12-01

Existing research has shown consistent increase in global sea levels due to warming of the climate; since 1870, average global sea level has risen by about 20 cm. There are processes that scientists and coastal engineers can follow to estimate the erosion and flooding risk impacts for specific locations based on historical data. However, there are no methods available to assess the risk impacts for locations where little research has been conducted. In this study, we introduce a prototype to better predict sea level change and land loss using big data technology. Our approach combines cluster analysis and artificial intelligence to classify and calculate impacts for locations worldwide. Data from 235 locations (89 countries) on sea level change was gathered from NOAA data investigations and other research organizations, including beach profile data, shoreline length data, and GDP data. The rate of sea level rise varies from -18 to 21 mm/yr. We divide the data into 4 groups (Group A: +0 to 9mm, Group B: +10 to +20mm, Group C: -0 to -9mm, and Group D:-10 to -20mm). Our research focuses on types A and B only since both reflect increase on sea level rise. We find the correlation between the sea level rise and factors such as the economic parameter (α), sea level rise height (h), beach breaker wave (Hb), gravitational constant (g), period of wave (T), foreshore slope (i), and sand sizes (D). We conclude the sea level rise impact ($ lost) can be more scientifically and precisely predicted using our model.

Simulated wind-generated inertial oscillations compared to current measurements in the northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruserud, Kjersti; Haver, Sverre; Myrhaug, Dag

2018-06-01

Measured current speed data show that episodes of wind-generated inertial oscillations dominate the current conditions in parts of the northern North Sea. In order to acquire current data of sufficient duration for robust estimation of joint metocean design conditions, such as wind, waves, and currents, a simple model for episodes of wind-generated inertial oscillations is adapted for the northern North Sea. The model is validated with and compared against measured current data at one location in the northern North Sea and found to reproduce the measured maximum current speed in each episode with considerable accuracy. The comparison is further improved when a small general background current is added to the simulated maximum current speeds. Extreme values of measured and simulated current speed are estimated and found to compare well. To assess the robustness of the model and the sensitivity of current conditions from location to location, the validated model is applied at three other locations in the northern North Sea. In general, the simulated maximum current speeds are smaller than the measured, suggesting that wind-generated inertial oscillations are not as prominent at these locations and that other current conditions may be governing. Further analysis of the simulated current speed and joint distribution of wind, waves, and currents for design of offshore structures will be presented in a separate paper.

Simulated wind-generated inertial oscillations compared to current measurements in the northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruserud, Kjersti; Haver, Sverre; Myrhaug, Dag

2018-04-01

Measured current speed data show that episodes of wind-generated inertial oscillations dominate the current conditions in parts of the northern North Sea. In order to acquire current data of sufficient duration for robust estimation of joint metocean design conditions, such as wind, waves, and currents, a simple model for episodes of wind-generated inertial oscillations is adapted for the northern North Sea. The model is validated with and compared against measured current data at one location in the northern North Sea and found to reproduce the measured maximum current speed in each episode with considerable accuracy. The comparison is further improved when a small general background current is added to the simulated maximum current speeds. Extreme values of measured and simulated current speed are estimated and found to compare well. To assess the robustness of the model and the sensitivity of current conditions from location to location, the validated model is applied at three other locations in the northern North Sea. In general, the simulated maximum current speeds are smaller than the measured, suggesting that wind-generated inertial oscillations are not as prominent at these locations and that other current conditions may be governing. Further analysis of the simulated current speed and joint distribution of wind, waves, and currents for design of offshore structures will be presented in a separate paper.

Growing Land-Sea Temperature Contrast and the Intensification of Arctic Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, Jonathan J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2018-04-01

Cyclones play an important role in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system on a range of time scales. Modeling studies suggest that storminess will increase in Arctic summer due to enhanced land-sea thermal contrast along the Arctic coastline, in a region known as the Arctic Frontal Zone (AFZ). However, the climate models used in these studies are poor at reproducing the present-day Arctic summer cyclone climatology and so their projections of Arctic cyclones and related quantities, such as sea ice, may not be reliable. In this study we perform composite analysis of Arctic cyclone statistics using AFZ variability as an analog for climate change. High AFZ years are characterized both by increased cyclone frequency and dynamical intensity, compared to low years. Importantly, the size of the response in this analog suggests that General Circulation Models may underestimate the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change, given a similar change in baroclinicity.

A high resolution Adriatic-Ionian Sea circulation model for operational forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciliberti, Stefania Angela; Pinardi, Nadia; Coppini, Giovanni; Oddo, Paolo; Vukicevic, Tomislava; Lecci, Rita; Verri, Giorgia; Kumkar, Yogesh; Creti', Sergio

2015-04-01

A new numerical regional ocean model for the Italian Seas, with focus on the Adriatic-Ionian basin, has been implemented within the framework of Technologies for Situational Sea Awareness (TESSA) Project. The Adriatic-Ionian regional model (AIREG) represents the core of the new Adriatic-Ionian Forecasting System (AIFS), maintained operational by CMCC since November 2014. The spatial domain covers the Adriatic and the Ionian Seas, extending eastward until the Peloponnesus until the Libyan coasts; it includes also the Tyrrhenian Sea and extends westward, including the Ligurian Sea, the Sardinia Sea and part of the Algerian basin. The model is based on the NEMO-OPA (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean - Ocean PArallelise), version 3.4 (Madec et al. 2008). NEMO has been implemented for AIREG at 1/45° resolution model in horizontal using 121 vertical levels with partial steps. It solves the primitive equations using the time-splitting technique for solving explicitly the external gravity waves. The model is forced by momentum, water and heat fluxes interactively computed by bulk formulae using the 6h-0.25° horizontal-resolution operational analysis and forecast fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) (Tonani et al. 2008, Oddo et al. 2009). The atmospheric pressure effect is included as surface forcing for the model hydrodynamics. The evaporation is derived from the latent heat flux, while the precipitation is provided by the Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data. Concerning the runoff contribution, the model considers the estimate of the inflow discharge of 75 rivers that flow into the Adriatic-Ionian basin, collected by using monthly means datasets. Because of its importance as freshwater input in the Adriatic basin, the Po River contribution is provided using daily average observations from ARPA Emilia Romagna observational network. AIREG is one-way nested into the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS, http://medforecast.bo.ingv.it/) using daily means fields computed from daily outputs of the 1/16° general circulation model. One-way nesting is done by a novel pre-processing tool for an on-the-fly computation of boundary datasets compatible with BDY module provided by NEMO. It imposes the interpolation constraint and correction as in Pinardi et al. (2003) on the total velocity, ensuring that the total volume transport across boundaries is preserved after the interpolation procedures. In order to compute the lateral open boundary conditions, the model applies the Flow Relaxation Scheme (Engerdhal, 1995) for temperature, salinity and velocities and the Flather's radiation condition (Flather, 1976) for the depth-mean transport. Concerning the forecasting production cycle, AIFS produces 9-days forecast every day, producing hourly and daily means of temperature, salinity, surface currents, heat flux, water flux and shortwave radiation fields. AIREG model performances have been verified by using statistics (root mean square errors and BIAS) with respect to observed data (ARGO and CDT datasets)

Remote sensing science for the Nineties; Proceedings of IGARSS '90 - 10th Annual International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, University of Maryland, College Park, May 20-24, 1990. Vols. 1, 2, & 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Various papers on remote sensing (RS) for the nineties are presented. The general topics addressed include: subsurface methods, radar scattering, oceanography, microwave models, atmospheric correction, passive microwave systems, RS in tropical forests, moderate resolution land analysis, SAR geometry and SNR improvement, image analysis, inversion and signal processing for geoscience, surface scattering, rain measurements, sensor calibration, wind measurements, terrestrial ecology, agriculture, geometric registration, subsurface sediment geology, radar modulation mechanisms, radar ocean scattering, SAR calibration, airborne radar systems, water vapor retrieval, forest ecosystem dynamics, land analysis, multisensor data fusion. Also considered are: geologic RS, RS sensor optical measurements, RS of snow, temperature retrieval, vegetation structure, global change, artificial intelligence, SAR processing techniques, geologic RS field experiment, stochastic modeling, topography and Digital Elevation model, SAR ocean waves, spaceborne lidar and optical, sea ice field measurements, millimeter waves, advanced spectroscopy, spatial analysis and data compression, SAR polarimetry techniques. Also discussed are: plant canopy modeling, optical RS techniques, optical and IR oceanography, soil moisture, sea ice back scattering, lightning cloud measurements, spatial textural analysis, SAR systems and techniques, active microwave sensing, lidar and optical, radar scatterometry, RS of estuaries, vegetation modeling, RS systems, EOS/SAR Alaska, applications for developing countries, SAR speckle and texture.

Relative and Geocentric Sea Level Rise Along the U.S. West Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgette, R. J.; Watson, C. S.

2015-12-01

The rate of sea level change relative to the land along the West Coast of the U.S. varies over a range of +5 to -2 mm/yr, as observed across the set of long-running tide gauges. We analyze tide gauge data in a network approach that accounts for temporal and spatial correlations in the time series of water levels observed at the stations. This analysis yields a set of rate estimates and realistic uncertainties that are minimally affected by varying durations of observations. The analysis has the greatest impact for tide gauges with short records, as the adjusted rate uncertainties for 2 to 3 decade duration tide gauges approach those estimated from unadjusted century-scale time series. We explore the sources of the wide range of observed relative sea level rates through comparison with: 1) estimated vertical deformation rates derived from repeated leveling and GPS, 2) relative sea level change predicted from models of glacial isostatic adjustment, and 3) geocentric sea level rates estimated from satellite altimetry and century-scale reconstructions. Tectonic deformation is the dominant signal in the relative sea level rates along the Cascadia portion of the coast, and is consistent with along-strike variation in locking behavior on the plate interface. Rates of vertical motion are lower along the transform portion of the plate boundary and include anthropogenic effects, but there are significant tectonic signals, particularly in the western Transverse Ranges of California where the crust is shortening across reverse faults. Preliminary analysis of different strategies of estimating the magnitude of geocentric sea level rise suggest significant discrepancies between approaches. We will examine the implications of these discrepancies for understanding the process of regional geocentric sea level rise in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, and associated projected impacts.

Mechanisms controlling the intra-annual mesoscale variability of SST and SPM in the southern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrzak, Julie D.; de Boer, Gerben J.; Eleveld, Marieke A.

2011-04-01

Thermal and optical remote sensing data were used to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) and of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the southern North Sea. Monthly SST composites showed pronounced seasonal warming of the southern North Sea and delineated the English coastal and continental coastal waters. The East-Anglia Plume is the dominant feature of the English coastal waters in the winter and autumn SPM composites, and the Rhine region of freshwater influence (ROFI), including the Flemish Banks, is the dominant feature of the continental waters. These mesoscale spatial structures are also influenced by the evolution of fronts, such as the seasonal front separating well-mixed water in the southern Bight, from the seasonally stratified central North Sea waters. A harmonic analysis of the SST and SPM images showed pronounced seasonal variability, as well as spring-neap variations in the level of tidal mixing in the East Anglia Plume, the Rhine ROFI and central North Sea. The harmonic analysis indicates the important role played by the local meteorology and tides in governing the SST and near-surface SPM concentrations in the southern North Sea. In the summer, thermal stratification affects the visibility of SPM to satellite sensors in the waters to the north of the Flamborough and Frisian Fronts. Haline stratification plays an important role in the visibility of SPM in the Rhine ROFI throughout the year. When stratified, both regions typically exhibit low surface SPM values. A numerical model study, together with the harmonic analysis, highlights the importance of tides and waves in controlling the stratification in the southern North Sea and hence the visibility of SPM.

Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling. M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.;

Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Riesselman, Christina R.

2012-01-01

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

Holocene sea level, a semi-empirical contemplation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bittermann, K.; Kemp, A.; Vermeer, M.; Rahmstorf, S.

2017-12-01

Holocene eustatic sea level from approximately -10,000-1800 CE was characterized by an increase of about 60m, with the rate progressively slowing down until sea level almost stabilizes between 500-1800 CE. Global and northern-hemisphere temperatures rose from the last glacial termination until the `Holocene Optimum'. From ­­there, up to the start of the recent anthropogenic rise, they almost steadily decline. How are the sea-level and temperature evolutions linked? We investigate this with semi-empirical sea-level models. We found that, due to the nature of Milankovitch forcing, northern-hemisphere temperature (we used the Greenland temperature by Vinther et al., 2009) is a better model driver than global mean temperature because the evolving mass of northern-hemisphere land ice was the dominant cause of Holocene global sea-level trends. The adjustment timescale for this contribution is 1200 years (900-1500 years; 90% confidence interval). To fit the observed sea-level history, the model requires a small additional constant rate (Bittermann 2016). This rate turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as reconstructions of Antarctic sea-level contributions (Briggs et al. 2014, Golledge et al. 2014). In reality this contribution is unlikely to be constant but rather has a dominant timescale that is large compared to the time considered. We thus propose that Holocene sea level can be described by a linear combination of a temperature driven rate, which becomes negative in the late Holocene (as Northern Hemisphere ice masses are diminished), and a positive, approximately constant term (possibly from Antarctica), which starts to dominate from the middle of the Holocene until the start of industrialization. Bibliography: Bittermann, K. 2016. Semi-empirical sea-level modelling. PhD Thesis University of Potsdam. Briggs, R.D., et al. 2014. A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian. Quaternary science reviews, 103, 91-115. Golledge, N.R., et al. 2014. Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A from reduced Southern Ocean overturning. Nature communications, 5, 5107. Vinther, B.M., et al. 2009. Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet. Nature, 461(7262), 385-388.

Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Heat Fluxes in the Barents Sea Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashmachnikov, I. L.; Yurova, A. Yu.; Bobylev, L. P.; Vesman, A. V.

2018-03-01

Seasonal and interannual variations in adjective heat fluxes in the ocean ( dQ oc) and the convergence of advective heat fluxes in the atmosphere ( dQ atm) in the Barents Sea region have been investigated over the period of 1993-2012 using the results of the MIT regional eddy-permitting model and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis. Wavelet analysis and singular spectrum analysis are used to reveal concealed periodicities. Seasonal 2- to 4- and 5- to 8-year cycles are revealed in the dQ oc and dQ atm data. It is also found that seasonal variations in dQ oc are primarily determined by the integrated volume fluxes through the western boundary of the Barents Sea, whereas the 20-year trend is determined by the temperature variation of the transported water. A cross-wavelet analysis of dQ oc and dQ atm in the Barents Sea region shows that the seasonal variations in dQ oc and dQ atm are nearly in-phase, while their interannual variations are out-of-phase. It is concluded that the basin of the Barents Sea plays an important role in maintaining the feedback mechanism (the Bjerknes compensation) of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Arctic region.

Trends in sea ice cover within habitats used by bowhead whales in the western Arctic.

PubMed

Moore, Sue E; Laidre, Kristin L

2006-06-01

We examined trends in sea ice cover between 1979 and 2002 in four months (March, June, September, and November) for four large (approximately 100,000 km2) and 12 small (approximately 10,000 km2) regions of the western Arctic in habitats used by bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus). Variation in open water with year was significant in all months except March, but interactions between region and year were not. Open water increased in both large and small regions, but trends were weak with least-squares regression accounting for < or =34% of the total variation. In large regions, positive trends in open water were strongest in September. Linear fits were poor, however, even in the East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas, where basin-scale analyses have emphasized dramatic sea ice loss. Small regions also showed weak positive trends in open water and strong interannual variability. Open water increased consistently in five small regions where bowhead whales have been observed feeding or where oceanographic models predict prey entrainment, including: (1) June, along the northern Chukotka coast, near Wrangel Island, and along the Beaufort slope; (2) September, near Wrangel Island, the Barrow Arc, and the Chukchi Borderland; and (3) November, along the Barrow Arc. Conversely, there was very little consistent change in sea ice cover in four small regions considered winter refugia for bowhead whales in the northern Bering Sea, nor in two small regions that include the primary springtime migration corridor in the Chukchi Sea. The effects of sea ice cover on bowhead whale prey availability are unknown but can be modeled via production and advection pathways. Our conceptual model suggests that reductions in sea ice cover will increase prey availability along both pathways for this population. This analysis elucidates the variability inherent in the western Arctic marine ecosystem at scales relevant to bowhead whales and contrasts basin-scale depictions of extreme sea ice retreats, thinning, and wind-driven movements.

Determining the response of sea level to atmospheric pressure forcing using TOPEX/POSEIDON data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Pihos, Greg

1994-01-01

The static response of sea level to the forcing of atmospheric pressure, the so-called inverted barometer (IB) effect, is investigated using TOPEX/POSEIDON data. This response, characterized by the rise and fall of sea level to compensate for the change of atmospheric pressure at a rate of -1 cm/mbar, is not associated with any ocean currents and hence is normally treated as an error to be removed from sea level observation. Linear regression and spectral transfer function analyses are applied to sea level and pressure to examine the validity of the IB effect. In regions outside the tropics, the regression coefficient is found to be consistently close to the theoretical value except for the regions of western boundary currents, where the mesoscale variability interferes with the IB effect. The spectral transfer function shows near IB response at periods of 30 degrees is -0.84 +/- 0.29 cm/mbar (1 standard deviation). The deviation from = 1 cm /mbar is shown to be caused primarily by the effect of wind forcing on sea level, based on multivariate linear regression model involving both pressure and wind forcing. The regression coefficient for pressure resulting from the multivariate analysis is -0.96 +/- 0.32 cm/mbar. In the tropics the multivariate analysis fails because sea level in the tropics is primarily responding to remote wind forcing. However, after removing from the data the wind-forced sea level estimated by a dynamic model of the tropical Pacific, the pressure regression coefficient improves from -1.22 +/- 0.69 cm/mbar to -0.99 +/- 0.46 cm/mbar, clearly revealing an IB response. The result of the study suggests that with a proper removal of the effect of wind forcing the IB effect is valid in most of the open ocean at periods longer than 20 days and spatial scales larger than 500 km.

Analysis of Groundwater Anomalies Estimated by GRACE and GLDAS Satellite-based Hydrological Model in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotfata, A.; Ambinakudige, S.

2017-12-01

Coastal regions face a higher risk of flooding. A rise in sea-level increases flooding chances in low-lying areas. A major concern is the effect of sea-level rise on the depth of the fresh water/salt water interface in the aquifers of the coastal regions. A sea-level change rise impacts the hydrological system of the aquifers. Salt water intrusion into fresh water aquifers increase water table levels. Flooding prone areas in the coast are at a higher risk of salt water intrusion. The Gulf coast is one of the most vulnerable flood areas due to its natural weather patterns. There is not yet a local assessment of the relation between groundwater level and sea-level rising. This study investigates the projected sea-level rise models and the anomalous groundwater level during January 2002 to December 2016. We used the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) satellite data in the analysis. We accounted the leakage error and the measurement error in GRACE data. GLDAS data was used to calculate the groundwater storage from the total water storage estimated using GRACE data (ΔGW=ΔTWS (soil moisture, surface water, groundwater, and canopy water) - ΔGLDAS (soil moisture, surface water, and canopy water)). The preliminary results indicate that the total water storage is increasing in parts of the Gulf of Mexico. GRACE data show high soil wetness and groundwater levels in Mississippi, Alabama and Texas coasts. Because sea-level rise increases the probability of flooding in the Gulf coast and affects the groundwater, we will analyze probable interactions between sea-level rise and groundwater in the study area. To understand regional sea-level rise patterns, we will investigate GRACE Ocean data along the Gulf coasts. We will quantify ocean total water storage, its salinity, and its relationship with the groundwater level variations in the Gulf coast.

Pitfalls in velocity analysis for strongly contrasting, layered media - Example from the Chalk Group, North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montazeri, Mahboubeh; Uldall, Anette; Moreau, Julien; Nielsen, Lars

2018-02-01

Knowledge about the velocity structure of the subsurface is critical in key seismic processing sequences, for instance, migration, depth conversion, and construction of initial P- and S-wave velocity models for full-waveform inversion. Therefore, the quality of subsurface imaging is highly dependent upon the quality of the seismic velocity analysis. Based on a case study from the Danish part of the North Sea, we show how interference caused by multiples, converted waves, and thin-layer effects may lead to incorrect velocity estimation, if such effects are not accounted for. Seismic wave propagation inside finely layered reservoir rocks dominated by chalk is described by two-dimensional finite-difference wave field simulation. The rock physical properties used for the modeling are based on an exploration well from the Halfdan field in the Danish sector of the North Sea. The modeling results are compared to seismic data from the study area. The modeling shows that interference of primaries with multiples, converted waves and thin-bed effects can give rise to strong anomalies in standard velocity analysis plots. Consequently, root-mean-square (RMS) velocity profiles may be erroneously picked. In our study area, such mis-picking can introduce errors in, for example, the thickness estimation of the layers near the base of the studied sedimentary strata by 11% to 26%. Tests show that front muting and bandpass filtering cannot significantly improve the quality of velocity analysis in our study. However, we notice that spiking deconvolution applied before velocity analysis may to some extent reduce the impact of interference and, therefore, reduce the risk of erroneous picking of the velocity function.

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

PubMed

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-06-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†

PubMed Central

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-01-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370

Investigating the Interannual Variability of the Circulation and Water Mass Formation in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, S. S.; Papadopoulos, V. P.; Denaxa, D.; Abualnaja, Y.

2014-12-01

The interannual variability of the circulation and water mass formation in the Red Sea is investigated with the use of a numerical model and the combination of satellite and in-situ observations. The response of Red Sea to the large-scale variability of atmospheric forcing is studied through a 30-years simulation experiment, using MICOM model. The modeling results demonstrate significant trends and variability that are mainly located in the central and northern parts of the basin. On the other hand, the exchange pattern between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean at the strait of Bab el Mandeb presents very weak interannual variability. The results verify the regularity of the water mass formation processes in the northern Red Sea but also show significant variability of the circulation and thermohaline conditions in the areas of formation. Enhanced water mass formation conditions are observed during specific years of the simulation (approximately five years apart). Analysis of recent warm and cold events in the northernmost part of the basin, based on a combination of atmospheric reanalysis results and oceanic satellite and in-situ observations, shows the importance of the cyclonic gyre that is prevailing in this part of the basin. This gyre can effectively influence the sea surface temperature (SST) and intensify or mitigate the winter effect of the atmospheric forcing. Upwelling induced by persistent periods of the gyre functioning drops the SST over the northernmost part of the Red Sea and can produce colder than normal winter SST even without extreme atmospheric forcing. These mechanisms are crucial for the formation of intermediate and deep water masses in the Red Sea and the strength of the subsequent thermohaline cells.

Sensitivity analysis of sea level rise contribution depending on external forcing: A case study of Victoria Land, East Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, I. W.; Lee, S. H.; Lee, W. S.; Lee, C. K.; Lee, K. K.

2017-12-01

As global mean temperature increases, it affects increase in polar glacier melt and thermal expansion of sea, which contributed to global sea level rise. Unlike large sea level rise contributors in Western Antarctica (e. g. Pine island glacier, Thwaites glacier), glaciers in East Antarctica shows relatively stable and slow ice velocity. However, recent calving events related to increase of supraglacier lake in Nansen ice shelf arouse the questions in regards to future evolution of ice dynamics at Victoria Land, East Antarctica. Here, using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a series of numerical simulations were carried out to investigate ice dynamics evolution (grounding line migration, ice velocity) and sea level rise contribution in response to external forcing conditions (surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat). In this study, we used control method to set ice dynamic properties (ice rigidity and friction coefficient) with shallow shelf approximation model and check each external forcing conditions contributing to sea level change. Before 50-year transient simulations were conducted based on changing surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat of Drygalski ice tongue and Nansen ice shelf, relaxation was performed for 10 years to reduce non-physical undulation and it was used as initial condition. The simulation results showed that sea level rise contribution were expected to be much less compared to other fast glaciers. Floating ice melting rate was most sensitive parameter to sea level rise, while ice front retreat of Drygalski tongue was negligible. The regional model will be further updated utilizing ice radar topography and measured floating ice melting rate.

Statistical modelling of sea lice count data from salmon farms in the Faroe Islands.

PubMed

Gislason, H

2018-06-01

Fiskaaling regularly counts the number of sea lice in the attached development stages (chalimus, mobiles and adult) for the salmon farms in the Faroe Islands. A statistical model of the data is developed. In the model, the sea-lice infection is represented by the chalimus (or mobile) lice developing into adult lice and is used to simulate past and current levels of adult lice-including treatments-as well as to predict the adult sea lice level 1-2 months into the future. Time series of the chalimus and adult lice show cross-correlations that shift in time and grow in size with temperature. This implies in situ the temperature-dependent development times of about 56 down to 42 days and the inverted development times (growth rates) of 0.018 up to 0.024 lice/day at 8-10°C. The temperature dependence DT=α1T+α2α3=17,840T+7.439-2.128is approximated byD1T=105.2-6.578T≈49 days at the mean temperature 8.5°C-similar to DchaT=100.6-6.507T≈45 days from EWOS data. The observed development times at four sites for a year (2010-11) were 49, 50, 51 and 52 days, respectively. Finally, we estimate the sea lice production from fish farms to discuss approaches to control the sea lice epidemics-preferably by natural means. This study is useful for understanding sea lice levels and treatments, and for in situ analysis of the sea-lice development times and growth rates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimation of the Aral Sea state predictability based on the open data sources and the unique field observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izhitskiy, Alexander; Ayzel, Georgy; Zavialov, Peter; Kurbaniyazov, Abilgazi

2016-04-01

The Aral Sea, formerly one of the four largest lakes in the world, has lost over 90% of its volume during the dramatical dessication mainly caused by the severe alteration of water budget of the basin. Shrinkage of the Aral Sea resulted in profound changes of the lake's ecosystem, that became a subject for a number of publications based on a wide range of methods such as field observations, remote sensing data analysis and numerical modeling. However, by the early 21th century, the number of field studies decreased significantly due to almost complete cessation of navigation and displacement of the Aral's shoreline far away from roads and other infrastructure. Thus, only a small amount of field data (salinity, temperature, etc.) for different regions of the lake is available for the last two decades. On the other hand, a set of the open data sources (sea level variability, atmospheric reanalysis) were developed for the region. The main idea of the presented study is to estimate the possibility of prediction of the Aral Sea state using coupled system of basic geoanalysis tools, numerical modeling of hydrological cycle (both for sea and land-surface interactions with atmosphere) and state-of-art machine learning techniques. Firstly, available in situ data, obtained in the Aral Sea by Shirshov Institute and other researchers, are concerned as the "base points of state" for each year within the studied period. Secondly, consistent patterns in the interannual variability of all other available parameters, taken from the open data sources and numerical modeling predictions, are founded out. As a result, such an approach allows predicting the future state of sea basing on the possible climatic scenario.

Role of the Tropical Pacific in recent Antarctic Sea-Ice Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Codron, F.; Bardet, D.; Allouache, C.; Gastineau, G.; Friedman, A. R.; Douville, H.; Voldoire, A.

2017-12-01

The recent (up to 2016) trends in Antarctic sea-ice cover - a global increase masking a dipole between the Ross and Bellingshausen-Weddel seas - are still not well understood, and not reproduced by CMIP5 coupled climate models. We here explore the potential role of atmospheric circulation changes around the Amundsen Sea, themselves possibly forced by tropical SSTs, an explanation that has been recently advanced. As a first check on this hypothesis, we compare the atmospheric circulation trends simulated by atmospheric GCMs coupled with an ocean or with imposed SSTs (AMIP experiment from CMIP5); the latter being in theory able to reproduce changes caused by natural SST variability. While coupled models simulate in aggregate trends that project on the SAM structure, strongest in summer, the AMIP simulations add in the winter season a pronounced Amundsen Sea Low signature (and a PNA signature in the northern hemisphere) both consistent with a Niña-like trend in the tropical Pacific. We then use a specific coupled GCM setup, in which surface wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific are strongly nudged towards the observed ones, including their interannual variability, but the model is free to evolve elsewhere. The two GCMs used then simulate a deepening trend in the Amundsen-Sea Low in winter, and are able to reproduce a dipole in sea-ice cover. Further analysis shows that the sea-ice dipole is partially forced by surface heat flux anomalies in early winter - the extent varying with the region and GCM used. The turbulent heat fluxes then act to damp the anomalies in late winter, which may however be maintained by ice-albedo feedbacks.

Influence of sea ice on Arctic coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, K. R.; Kay, J. E.; Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S.

2017-12-01

Coasts form the dynamic interface between the terrestrial and oceanic systems. In the Arctic, and in much of the world, the coast is a focal point for population, infrastructure, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. A key difference between Arctic and temperate coasts is the presence of sea ice. Changes in sea ice cover can influence the coast because (1) the length of the sea ice-free season controls the time over which nearshore water can interact with the land, and (2) the location of the sea ice edge controls the fetch over which storm winds can interact with open ocean water, which in turn governs nearshore water level and wave field. We first focus on the interaction of sea ice and ice-rich coasts. We combine satellite records of sea ice with a model for wind-driven storm surge and waves to estimate how changes in the sea ice-free season have impacted the nearshore hydrodynamic environment along Alaska's Beaufort Sea Coast for the period 1979-2012. This region has experienced some of the greatest changes in both sea ice cover and coastal erosion rates in the Arctic: the median length of the open-water season has expanded by 90 percent, while coastal erosion rates have more than doubled from 8.7 to 19 m yr-1. At Drew Point, NW winds increase shoreline water levels that control the incision of a submarine notch, the rate-limiting step of coastal retreat. The maximum water-level setup at Drew Point has increased consistently with increasing fetch. We extend our analysis to the entire Arctic using both satellite-based observations and global coupled climate model output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. This 30-member ensemble employs a 1-degree version of the CESM-CAM5 historical forcing for the period 1920-2005, and RCP 8.5 forcing from 2005-2100. A control model run with constant pre-industrial (1850) forcing characterizes internal variability in a constant climate. Finally, we compare observations and model results to identify locations of both observed and expected rapid sea ice change. Based on satellite observations, the median length of the 2012 open-water season expanded by between 1.5 and 3-fold relative to 1979 over the Arctic Sea region. This results in open water during the stormy Arctic fall, with implications for not only coastal processes but for amplification of warming on land.

2009/2010 Eurasian Cold Winter and Loss of Arctic Sea-ice over Barents/Kara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, T.; Kim, B.; Kim, S.

2012-12-01

In 2009/2010 winter, a few extreme cold events and heavy snowfall occurred over central North America, north western Europe, and East Asia exerting a severe social and economic impacts. In this study, we performed modeling experiments to examine the role of substantially reduced Arctic sea-ice over Barents/Kara Sea on the 2009/2010 cold winters. Although several previous studies investigated cause of the extreme events and emphasized the large snow-covered area over Siberia in autumn 2009, we note that the area extent of Arctic sea-ice over Barents/Kara sea in autumn 2009 was anomalously low and the possible impact from Arctic for the extreme cold events has not been presented. To investigate the influence from the Arctic, we designed three model runs using Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3). Each simulation differs by the prescribed surface boundary conditions: (a) CTRL - climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) are prescribed everywhere, (b) EXP_65N - SST and SIC inside the Arctic circle (north of 65°N) are replaced by 2009/2010 values. Elsewhere, the climatology is used, (c) EXP_BK - Same with (b) except that SIC and SST are fixed only over Barents/Kara Sea where the sea-ice area dropped significantly in 2009/2010 winter. Model results from EXP_65N and EXP_BK commonly showed a large increase of air temperature in the lower troposphere where Arctic sea-ice showed a large reduction. Also, compared with the observation, model successfully captured thickened geopotential height in the Arctic and showed downstream wave propagation toward midlatitude. From the analysis, we reveal that this large dipolar Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection pattern in the upper troposphere easily propagate upward and played a role in the weakening of polar vortex. This is also confirmed in the observation. However, the timing of excitation of upward propagating wave in EXP_65N and EXP_BK were different and thus the timing of weakening of polar vortex also differs in each experiment. Unlike with our expectation, both EXP_65N and EXP_BK did not capture the abrupt increase of snow-cover in the observation over Siberian region in autumn 2009. Therefore, given the successful reproduction of key observed features of cold winter 2009/2010 by EXP_65N and EXP_BK, we conclude that Arctic sea-ice in autumn 2009 played a key role for the subsequent development of cold winter 2009/2010 and the role was largely independent with the autumn snow-cover.

Denitrification in the Arabian Sea: A 3D ecosystem modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Thomas R.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Fasham, Michael J. R.; Gorchakov, Victor A.

2007-12-01

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecosystem model was used to examine the factors determining the spatio-temporal distribution of denitrification in the Arabian Sea. The ecosystem model includes carbon and nitrogen as currencies, cycling of organic matter via detritus and dissolved organic matter, and both remineralization and denitrification as sinks for material exported below the euphotic zone. Model results captured the marked seasonality in plankton dynamics of the region, with characteristic blooms of chlorophyll in the coastal upwelling regions and central Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon, and also in the northern Arabian Sea during the northeast monsoon as the mixed layer shoals. Predicted denitrification was 26.2 Tg N yr -1,the greatest seasonal contribution being during the northeast monsoon when primary production is co-located with the zone of anoxia. Detritus was the primary organic substrate consumed in denitrification (97%), with a small (3%) contribution by dissolved organic matter. Denitrification in the oxygen minimum zone was predicted to be fuelled almost entirely by organic matter supplied by particles sinking vertically from the euphotic zone above (0.73 mmol N m -2 d -1) rather than from lateral transport of organic matter from elsewhere in the Arabian Sea (less than 0.01 mmol N m -2 d -1). Analysis of the carbon budget in the zone of denitrification (north of 10°N and east of 55°E) indicates that the modelled vertical export flux of detritus, which is similar in magnitude to estimates from field data based on the 234Th method, is sufficient to account for measured bacterial production below the euphotic zone in the Arabian Sea.

Estimating the Ocean Flow Field from Combined Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Surface Height Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stammer, Detlef; Lindstrom, Eric (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This project was part of a previous grant at MIT that was moved over to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) together with the principal investigator. The final report provided here is concerned only with the work performed at SIO since January 2000. The primary focus of this project was the study of the three-dimensional, absolute and time-evolving general circulation of the global ocean from a combined analysis of remotely sensed fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH). The synthesis of those two fields was performed with other relevant physical data, and appropriate dynamical ocean models with emphasis on constraining ocean general circulation models by a combination of both SST and SSH data. The central goal of the project was to improve our understanding and modeling of the relationship between the SST and its variability to internal ocean dynamics, and the overlying atmosphere, and to explore the relative roles of air-sea fluxes and internal ocean dynamics in establishing anomalies in SST on annual and longer time scales. An understanding of those problems will feed into the general discussion on how SST anomalies vary with time and the extend to which they interact with the atmosphere.

An Assessment of the Predictability of Northern Winter Seasonal Means with the NSIPP 1 AGCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Pegion, Philip J.; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2000-01-01

This atlas assesses the predictability of January-February-March (JFM) means using version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project Atmospheric General Circulation Model (the NSIPP 1 AGCM). The AGCM is part of the NSIPP coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. For these results, the atmosphere was run uncoupled from the ocean, but coupled with an interactive land model. The results are based on 20 ensembles of nine JFM hindcasts for the period 1980-1999, with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice specified from observations. The model integrations were started from initial atmospheric conditions (taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses) centered on December 15. The analysis focuses on 200 mb height, precipitation, surface temperature, and sea-level pressure. The results address issues of both predictability and forecast skill. Various signal-to-noise measures are computed to demonstrate the potential for skillful prediction on seasonal time scales under the assumption of a perfect model and perfectly known oceanic boundary forcings. The results show that the model produces a realistic ENSO response in both the tropics and extratropics.

Contribution of sea ice microbial production to Antarctic benthic communities is driven by sea ice dynamics and composition of functional guilds.

PubMed

Wing, Stephen R; Leichter, James J; Wing, Lucy C; Stokes, Dale; Genovese, Sal J; McMullin, Rebecca M; Shatova, Olya A

2018-04-28

Organic matter produced by the sea ice microbial community (SIMCo) is an important link between sea ice dynamics and secondary production in near-shore food webs of Antarctica. Sea ice conditions in McMurdo Sound were quantified from time series of MODIS satellite images for Sept. 1 through Feb. 28 of 2007-2015. A predictable sea ice persistence gradient along the length of the Sound and evidence for a distinct change in sea ice dynamics in 2011 were observed. We used stable isotope analysis (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) of SIMCo, suspended particulate organic matter (SPOM) and shallow water (10-20 m) macroinvertebrates to reveal patterns in trophic structure of, and incorporation of organic matter from SIMCo into, benthic communities at eight sites distributed along the sea ice persistence gradient. Mass-balance analysis revealed distinct trophic architecture among communities and large fluxes of SIMCo into the near-shore food web, with the estimates ranging from 2 to 84% of organic matter derived from SIMCo for individual species. Analysis of patterns in density, and biomass of macroinvertebrate communities among sites allowed us to model net incorporation of organic matter from SIMCo, in terms of biomass per unit area (g/m 2 ), into benthic communities. Here, organic matter derived from SIMCo supported 39 to 71 per cent of total biomass. Furthermore, for six species, we observed declines in contribution of SIMCo between years with persistent sea ice (2008-2009) and years with extensive sea ice breakout (2012-2015). Our data demonstrate the vital role of SIMCo in ecosystem function in Antarctica and strong linkages between sea ice dynamics and near-shore secondary productivity. These results have important implications for our understanding of how benthic communities will respond to changes in sea ice dynamics associated with climate change and highlight the important role of shallow water macroinvertebrate communities as sentinels of change for the Antarctic marine ecosystem. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sea-Salt Aerosol Forecasts Compared with Wave and Sea-Salt Measurements in the Open Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, P.; Starobinets, B.; Bozzano, R.; Pensieri, S.; Canepa, E.; Nickovie, S.; di Sarra, A.; Udisti, R.; Becagli, S.; Alpert, P.

2012-03-01

Sea-salt aerosol (SSA) could influence the Earth's climate acting as cloud condensation nuclei. However, there were no regular measurements of SSA in the open sea. At Tel-Aviv University, the DREAM-Salt prediction system has been producing daily forecasts of 3-D distribution of sea-salt aerosol concentrations over the Mediterranean Sea (http://wind.tau.ac.il/saltina/ salt.html). In order to evaluate the model performance in the open sea, daily modeled concentrations were compared directly with SSA measurements taken at the tiny island of Lampedusa, in the Central Mediterranean. In order to further test the robustness of the model, the model performance over the open sea was indirectly verified by comparing modeled SSA concentrations with wave height measurements collected by the ODAS Italia 1 buoy and the Llobregat buoy. Model-vs.-measurement comparisons show that the model is capable of producing realistic SSA concentrations and their day-today variations over the open sea, in accordance with observed wave height and wind speed.

Exploring Modeling Options and Conversion of Average Response to Appropriate Vibration Envelopes for a Typical Cylindrical Vehicle Panel with Rib-stiffened Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, Phil; LaVerde, Bruce; Teague, David

2009-01-01

Although applications for Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) techniques are more widely used in the aerospace industry today, opportunities to anchor the response predictions using measured data from a flight-like launch vehicle structure are still quite valuable. Response and excitation data from a ground acoustic test at the Marshall Space Flight Center permitted the authors to compare and evaluate several modeling techniques available in the SEA module of the commercial code VA One. This paper provides an example of vibration response estimates developed using different modeling approaches to both approximate and bound the response of a flight-like vehicle panel. Since both vibration response and acoustic levels near the panel were available from the ground test, the evaluation provided an opportunity to learn how well the different modeling options can match band-averaged spectra developed from the test data. Additional work was performed to understand the spatial averaging of the measurements across the panel from measured data. Finally an evaluation/comparison of two conversion approaches from the statistical average response results that are output from an SEA analysis to a more useful envelope of response spectra appropriate to specify design and test vibration levels for a new vehicle.

A balanced Kalman filter ocean data assimilation system with application to the South Australian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Toumi, Ralf

2017-08-01

In this paper, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) based regional ocean data assimilation system has been developed and applied to the South Australian Sea. This system consists of the data assimilation algorithm provided by the NCAR Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) and the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). We describe the first implementation of the physical balance operator (temperature-salinity, hydrostatic and geostrophic balance) to DART, to reduce the spurious waves which may be introduced during the data assimilation process. The effect of the balance operator is validated in both an idealised shallow water model and the ROMS model real case study. In the shallow water model, the geostrophic balance operator eliminates spurious ageostrophic waves and produces a better sea surface height (SSH) and velocity analysis and forecast. Its impact increases as the sea surface height and wind stress increase. In the real case, satellite-observed sea surface temperature (SST) and SSH are assimilated in the South Australian Sea with 50 ensembles using the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF). Assimilating SSH and SST enhances the estimation of SSH and SST in the entire domain, respectively. Assimilation with the balance operator produces a more realistic simulation of surface currents and subsurface temperature profile. The best improvement is obtained when only SSH is assimilated with the balance operator. A case study with a storm suggests that the benefit of the balance operator is of particular importance under high wind stress conditions. Implementing the balance operator could be a general benefit to ocean data assimilation systems.

Optimum design point for a closed-cycle OTEC system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ikegami, Yasuyuki; Uehara, Haruo

1994-12-31

Performance analysis is performed for optimum design point of a closed-cycle Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) system. Calculations are made for an OTEC model plant with a gross power of 100 MW, which was designed by the optimization method proposed by Uehara and Ikegami for the design conditions of 21 C--29 C warm sea water temperature and 4 C cold sea water temperature. Ammonia is used as working fluid. Plate type evaporator and condenser are used as heat exchangers. The length of the cold sea water pipe is 1,000 m. This model plant is a floating-type OTEC plant. The objectivemore » function of optimum design point is defined as the total heat transfer area of heat exchangers per the annual net power.« less

Quantitative Assessment of Antarctic Climate Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordonez, A.; Schneider, D. P.

2013-12-01

The Antarctic climate is both extreme and highly variable, but there are indications it may be changing. As the climate in Antarctica can affect global sea level and ocean circulation, it is important to understand and monitor its behavior. Observational and model data have been used to study climate change in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, though observational data is sparse and models have difficulty reproducing many observed climate features. For example, a leading hypothesis that ozone depletion has been responsible for sea ice trends is struggling with the inability of ozone-forced models to reproduce the observed sea ice increase. The extent to which this data-model disagreement represents inadequate observations versus model biases is unknown. This research assessed a variety of climate change indicators to present an overview of Antarctic climate that will allow scientists to easily access this data and compare indicators with other observational data and model output. Indicators were obtained from observational and reanalysis data for variables such as temperature, sea ice area, and zonal wind stress. Multiple datasets were used for key variables. Monthly and annual anomaly data from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean as well as tropical indices were plotted as time series on common axes for comparison. Trends and correlations were also computed. Zonal wind, surface temperature, and austral springtime sea ice had strong relationships and were further discussed in terms of how they may relate to climate variability and change in the Antarctic. This analysis will enable hypothesized mechanisms of Antarctic climate change to be critically evaluated.

Vibroacoustic Response of the NASA ACTS Spacecraft Antenna to Launch Acoustic Excitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larko, Jeffrey M.; Cotoni, Vincent

2008-01-01

The Advanced Communications Technology Satellite was an experimental NASA satellite launched from the Space Shuttle Discovery. As part of the ground test program, the satellite s large, parabolic reflector antennas were exposed to a reverberant acoustic loading to simulate the launch acoustics in the Shuttle payload bay. This paper describes the modelling and analysis of the dynamic response of these large, composite spacecraft antenna structure subjected to a diffuse acoustic field excitation. Due to the broad frequency range of the excitation, different models were created to make predictions in the various frequency regimes of interest: a statistical energy analysis (SEA) model to capture the high frequency response and a hybrid finite element-statistical energy (hybrid FE-SEA) model for the low to mid-frequency responses. The strengths and limitations of each of the analytical techniques are discussed. The predictions are then compared to the measured acoustic test data and to a boundary element (BEM) model to evaluate the performance of the hybrid techniques.

Dining in the Deep: The Feeding Ecology of Deep-Sea Fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drazen, Jeffrey C.; Sutton, Tracey T.

2017-01-01

Deep-sea fishes inhabit ˜75% of the biosphere and are a critical part of deep-sea food webs. Diet analysis and more recent trophic biomarker approaches, such as stable isotopes and fatty-acid profiles, have enabled the description of feeding guilds and an increased recognition of the vertical connectivity in food webs in a whole-water-column sense, including benthic-pelagic coupling. Ecosystem modeling requires data on feeding rates; the available estimates indicate that deep-sea fishes have lower per-individual feeding rates than coastal and epipelagic fishes, but the overall predation impact may be high. A limited number of studies have measured the vertical flux of carbon by mesopelagic fishes, which appears to be substantial. Anthropogenic activities are altering deep-sea ecosystems and their services, which are mediated by trophic interactions. We also summarize outstanding data gaps.

Application of the WEAP model in strategic environmental assessment: Experiences from a case study in an arid/semi-arid area in China.

PubMed

Gao, Jingjing; Christensen, Per; Li, Wei

2017-08-01

This article investigated how the use of a water resources assessment model contributed to one of the first strategic environmental assessments (SEA) conducted for arid/semi-arid regions in China. The study was based on the SEA of a coal industry development plan in Ordos, an arid/semi-arid region of northwest China, where a temporally and spatially simplified version of the WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning System) model was applied for assessing the impact of the planned activities on local water resource system. Four scenarios were developed to simulate various alternatives using a diverse range of water utilisation measures such as irrigation efficiency, treatment and the reuse of water. The WEAP model itself was found to be a useful tool for efficient water resources assessment in SEA: 1) WEAP provides built-in simulation modules for water assessment, which improve the SEA's efficiency significantly; 2) WEAP temporally has the flexibility in both delivering information on a reasonably aggregated level by evaluating water resource on an annual time step, which fits most SEA cases, and being possible to take a finer time step analysis monthly, weekly even daily; 3) Spatially, WEAP has advantage in dealing with distributed demand sites in large spatial scale. However, although WEAP appears as a useful tool in providing support for decision-making, in this SEA case we experienced difficulty in building a feasible scenario to mitigate the impact of the proposed activities on the local water system, so that solution had to be found outside of the assessed scenarios - which led to the discussion on the fact that the proposed activities in SEA cases are rarely regarded as an uncertainty. Therefore future research on the scope of SEA scenarios could be valuable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distribution of Arctic and Pacific copepods and their habitat in the northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, H.; Matsuno, K.; Fujiwara, A.; Onuka, M.; Yamaguchi, A.; Ueno, H.; Watanuki, Y.; Kikuchi, T.

2015-11-01

The advection of warm Pacific water and the reduction of sea-ice extent in the western Arctic Ocean may influence the abundance and distribution of copepods, i.e., a key component in food webs. To understand the factors affecting abundance of copepods in the northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea, we constructed habitat models explaining the spatial patterns of the large and small Arctic copepods and the Pacific copepods, separately, using generalized additive models. Copepods were sampled by NORPAC net. Vertical profiles of density, temperature and salinity in the seawater were measured using CTD, and concentration of chlorophyll a in seawater was measured with a fluorometer. The timing of sea-ice retreat was determined using the satellite image. To quantify the structure of water masses, the magnitude of pycnocline and averaged density, temperature and salinity in upper and bottom layers were scored along three axes using principal component analysis (PCA). The structures of water masses indexed by the scores of PCAs were selected as explanatory variables in the best models. Large Arctic copepods were abundant in the water mass with high salinity water in bottom layer or with cold/low salinity water in upper layer and cold/high salinity water in bottom layer, and small Arctic copepods were abundant in the water mass with warm/saline water in upper layer and cold/high salinity water in bottom layers, while Pacific copepods were abundant in the water mass with warm/saline in upper layer and cold/high salinity water in bottom layer. All copepod groups were abundant in areas with deeper depth. Although chlorophyll a in upper and bottom layers were selected as explanatory variables in the best models, apparent trends were not observed. All copepod groups were abundant where the sea-ice retreated at earlier timing. Our study might indicate potential positive effects of the reduction of sea-ice extent on the distribution of all groups of copepods in the Arctic Ocean.

Dynamic and Regression Modeling of Ocean Variability in the Tide-Gauge Record at Seasonal and Longer Periods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Emma M.; Ponte, Rui M.; Davis, James L.

2007-01-01

Comparison of monthly mean tide-gauge time series to corresponding model time series based on a static inverted barometer (IB) for pressure-driven fluctuations and a ocean general circulation model (OM) reveals that the combined model successfully reproduces seasonal and interannual changes in relative sea level at many stations. Removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge record produces residual time series with a mean global variance reduction of 53%. The OM is mis-scaled for certain regions, and 68% of the residual time series contain a significant seasonal variability after removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge data. Including OM admittance parameters and seasonal coefficients in a regression model for each station, with IB also removed, produces residual time series with mean global variance reduction of 71%. Examination of the regional improvement in variance caused by scaling the OM, including seasonal terms, or both, indicates weakness in the model at predicting sea-level variation for constricted ocean regions. The model is particularly effective at reproducing sea-level variation for stations in North America, Europe, and Japan. The RMS residual for many stations in these areas is 25-35 mm. The production of "cleaner" tide-gauge time series, with oceanographic variability removed, is important for future analysis of nonsecular and regionally differing sea-level variations. Understanding the ocean model's strengths and weaknesses will allow for future improvements of the model.

Dynamic sea surface topography from GEOS-3 altimetry - Determination of some dominant parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mather, R. S.; Lerch, F. J.; Rizos, C.; Masters, E. G.; Hirsch, B.

1979-01-01

The second, third and fourth degree zonal harmonics of the quasi-stationary dynamic sea surface topography can be recovered from the GEOS-3 altimetry despite the adverse levels of noise indicated by the crossover discrepancies generated from the best orbits available at the end of 1977 and the GEOS-3 altimetry. Techniques for modelling the global sea surface topography are discussed along with methods for signal recovery in the presence of significant levels of noise. The analysis also provides a means of defining the geocentricity of the system of reference used in preparing the GEOS-3 ephemeris.

Moving beyond the age-depth model paradigm in deep-sea palaeoclimate archives: dual radiocarbon and stable isotope analysis on single foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lougheed, Bryan C.; Metcalfe, Brett; Ninnemann, Ulysses S.; Wacker, Lukas

2018-04-01

Late-glacial palaeoclimate reconstructions from deep-sea sediment archives provide valuable insight into past rapid changes in ocean chemistry. Unfortunately, only a small proportion of the ocean floor with sufficiently high sediment accumulation rate (SAR) is suitable for such reconstructions using the long-standing age-depth model approach. We employ ultra-small radiocarbon (14C) dating on single microscopic foraminifera to demonstrate that the long-standing age-depth model method conceals large age uncertainties caused by post-depositional sediment mixing, meaning that existing studies may underestimate total geochronological error. We find that the age-depth distribution of our 14C-dated single foraminifera is in good agreement with existing bioturbation models only after one takes the possibility of Zoophycos burrowing into account. To overcome the problems associated with the age-depth paradigm, we use the first ever dual 14C and stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) analysis on single microscopic foraminifera to produce a palaeoclimate time series independent of the age-depth paradigm. This new state of the art essentially decouples single foraminifera from the age-depth paradigm to provide multiple floating, temporal snapshots of ocean chemistry, thus allowing for the successful extraction of temporally accurate palaeoclimate data from low-SAR deep-sea archives. This new method can address large geographical gaps in late-glacial benthic palaeoceanographic reconstructions by opening up vast areas of previously disregarded, low-SAR deep-sea archives to research, which will lead to an improved understanding of the global interaction between oceans and climate.

Analysis of bending wave transmission using beam tracing with advanced statistical energy analysis for periodic box-like structures affected by spatial filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, D.; Hopkins, C.

2015-04-01

For bending wave transmission across periodic box-like arrangements of plates, the effects of spatial filtering can be significant and this needs to be considered in the choice of prediction model. This paper investigates the errors that can occur with Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) and the potential of using Advanced SEA (ASEA) to improve predictions. The focus is on the low- and mid-frequency range where plates only support local modes with low mode counts and the in situ modal overlap is relatively high. To increase the computational efficiency when using ASEA on large systems, a beam tracing method is introduced which groups together all rays with the same heading into a single beam. Based on a diffuse field on the source plate, numerical experiments are used to determine the angular distribution of incident power on receiver plate edges on linear and cuboid box-like structures. These show that on receiver plates which do not share a boundary with the source plate, the angular distribution on the receiver plate boundaries differs significantly from a diffuse field. SEA and ASEA predictions are assessed through comparison with finite element models. With rain-on-the-roof excitation on the source plate, the results show that compared to SEA, ASEA provides significantly better estimates of the receiver plate energy, but only where there are at least one or two bending modes in each one-third octave band. Whilst ASEA provides better accuracy than SEA, discrepancies still exist which become more apparent when the direct propagation path crosses more than three nominally identical structural junctions.

Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, K. M.; Huang, T.; Quach, N. T.; Boening, C.

2016-12-01

NASA's Sea Level Change Portal provides scientists and the general public with "one-stop" source for current sea level change information and data. Sea Level Rise research is a multidisciplinary research and in order to understand its causes, scientists must be able to access different measurements and to be able to compare them. The portal includes an interactive tool, called the Data Analysis Tool (DAT), for accessing, visualizing, and analyzing observations and models relevant to the study of Sea Level Rise. Using NEXUS, an open source, big data analytic technology developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the DAT is able provide user on-the-fly data analysis on all relevant parameters. DAT is composed of three major components: A dedicated instance of OnEarth (a WMTS service), NEXUS deep data analytic platform, and the JPL Common Mapping Client (CMC) for web browser based user interface (UI). Utilizing the global imagery, a user is capable of browsing the data in a visual manner and isolate areas of interest for further study. The interfaces "Analysis" tool provides tools for area or point selection, single and/or comparative dataset selection, and a range of options, algorithms, and plotting. This analysis component utilizes the Nexus cloud computing platform to provide on-demand processing of the data within the user-selected parameters and immediate display of the results. A RESTful web API is exposed for users comfortable with other interfaces and who may want to take advantage of the cloud computing capabilities. This talk discuss how DAT enables on-the-fly sea level research. The talk will introduce the DAT with an end-to-end tour of the tool with exploration and animating of available imagery, a demonstration of comparative analysis and plotting, and how to share and export data along with images for use in publications/presentations. The session will cover what kind of data is available, what kind of analysis is possible, and what are the outputs.

Challenges faced by ice sheet projections: lessons from the SeaRISE effort

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowicki, S.

2013-12-01

Projecting the future evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is a problem of enormous societal importance, as ice sheet influence our future sea levels. This crucial issue is however a non trivial task, as demonstrated by the Sea level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort: prescribing simple external forcings to a group of ice sheet models results in a spread in responses. Understanding the source of the diversity in the model results is therefore crucial in order to reduce the uncertainty in the projection. Just as in any future climate simulation, the analysis presented here demonstrates that the model spread in the SeaRISE effort is due to a number of factors. First is the problem of obtaining an initial configuration for the projection. The two commonly used methods, interglacial spin-up or data assimilation, have both advantages and drawbacks, and will affect the determination of fields that cannot be measured (such as basal slipperiness). Second is the uncertainty in actual observations, which includes but is not limited to surface mass balance, basal topography, ice thickness, and surface velocities. An additional issue with these observations is that they can be transient quantities which are not measured at the same time, but ice sheet models require them to be simultaneous. Third is the uncertainty in the models' physics and discretization, which is limited by our understanding (or lack of understanding) of crucial processes that often occur at subgrid scale relative to the resolution used by continental ice sheet models, and thus require parameterization. Grounding line migration and sliding laws are such an example. Fourth is the determination of the future forcing scenarios and their implementation as the external forcing. Unfortunately, as demonstrated in this analysis, all ice sheet models face these limitations to some degree, so that it is extremely difficult to identify a set of models and projections that should be trusted in preference to others. One model might be more suitable for assessing the impact of a warmer atmosphere because of its initialization procedure, but its deficiencies in capturing grounding line migration, for example, might make its projections for oceanic forcing unreliable. More work is thus required to evaluate individual ice sheet models' skills in projection, but this crucial and challenging task is left for future studies.

The changing seascape of Galway Bay, Western Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mc Cullagh, D.; Benetti, S.; Plets, R. M. K.; Edwards, R.

2016-12-01

During the late Quaternary significant environmental and relative sea-level variations have contributed to shaping present day coastlines. This is particularly evident along formerly glaciated continental margins. Strong evidence of these changes are recorded in Galway Bay, Western Ireland. This research uses a multidisciplinary approach. Seismic and multibeam data, sedimentological, micropaleontological, geochemical analysis and 15 radiocarbon dates of sediment cores from the bay provide post last glacial maximum (LGM) sea level and environmental reconstructions for the region. The acoustic stratigraphy of the bay includes 3 seismic units: the deepest unit represents the acoustic basement, composed of limestone and granite bedrock; the middle unit is composed of the oldest preserved sediments, deposited during and after the LGM, and interpreted to be glacial till. The uppermost unit represents deposition and reworking after glacial retreat. The erosive action of the ice sheet that extended off the Irish coast is thought to be responsible for the removal and reworking of all sediments older that the LGM. In the sediment cores, three main lithofacies were identified: 1) a sandy silt and clay facies, 2) a distinct shell hash interlayer and, 3) a fine silty sand facies. These 3 facies are found within the uppermost seismic unit, and initial radiocarbon dating of shells in 4 cores, constrain these sediments and the uppermost seismic unit to the Holocene. Preliminary qualitative analysis on foraminifera from several cores shows a general trend of progression from estuarine to open marine conditions, inferred from indicator species. This trend is supported by X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis which shows increased ratios of Cl/Fe in younger deposits. Constraining dates on sea level variations in the region will be added to the sea level database for Ireland and possibly used to adjust the existing relative sea level models. These are important for understating past sea level variations and modelling future trends.

Improving information retrieval in functional analysis.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Juan C; González, Germán A; Fresno, Cristóbal; Llera, Andrea S; Fernández, Elmer A

2016-12-01

Transcriptome analysis is essential to understand the mechanisms regulating key biological processes and functions. The first step usually consists of identifying candidate genes; to find out which pathways are affected by those genes, however, functional analysis (FA) is mandatory. The most frequently used strategies for this purpose are Gene Set and Singular Enrichment Analysis (GSEA and SEA) over Gene Ontology. Several statistical methods have been developed and compared in terms of computational efficiency and/or statistical appropriateness. However, whether their results are similar or complementary, the sensitivity to parameter settings, or possible bias in the analyzed terms has not been addressed so far. Here, two GSEA and four SEA methods and their parameter combinations were evaluated in six datasets by comparing two breast cancer subtypes with well-known differences in genetic background and patient outcomes. We show that GSEA and SEA lead to different results depending on the chosen statistic, model and/or parameters. Both approaches provide complementary results from a biological perspective. Hence, an Integrative Functional Analysis (IFA) tool is proposed to improve information retrieval in FA. It provides a common gene expression analytic framework that grants a comprehensive and coherent analysis. Only a minimal user parameter setting is required, since the best SEA/GSEA alternatives are integrated. IFA utility was demonstrated by evaluating four prostate cancer and the TCGA breast cancer microarray datasets, which showed its biological generalization capabilities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lithosphere structure across the Dead Sea Transform as constrained by Rayleigh waves observed during the DESERT experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laske, G.; Weber, M.

2008-05-01

The interdisciplinary Dead Sea Rift Transect (DESERT) project that was conducted in Israel, the Palestine Territories and Jordan has provided a rich palette of data sets to examine the crust and uppermost mantle beneath one of Earth's most prominent fault systems, the Dead Sea Transform (DST). As part of the passive seismic component, thirty broad-band sensors were deployed in 2000 across the DST for roughly one year. During this deployment, we recorded 115 teleseismic earthquakes that are suitable for a fundamental mode Rayleigh wave analysis at intermediate periods (35-150s). Our initial analysis reveals overall shear velocities that are reduced by up to 4 per cent with respect to reference Earth model PREM. To the west of the DST, we find a seismically relatively fast but thin lid that is about 80 km thick. Towards the east, shallow seismic velocities are low while a deeper low velocity zone is not detected. This contradicts the currently favoured thermomechanical model for the DST that predicts lithospheric thinning through mechanical erosion by an intruding plume from the Red Sea. On the other hand, our current results are somewhat inconclusive regarding asthenosphere velocities east of the DST due to the band limitation of the recording equipment in Jordan.

Statistical energy analysis computer program, user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trudell, R. W.; Yano, L. I.

1981-01-01

A high frequency random vibration analysis, (statistical energy analysis (SEA) method) is examined. The SEA method accomplishes high frequency prediction of arbitrary structural configurations. A general SEA computer program is described. A summary of SEA theory, example problems of SEA program application, and complete program listing are presented.

Evolution of Western Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature between 1985 and 2005: a complementary study in situ, satellite and modelling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troupin, C.; Lenartz, F.; Sirjacobs, D.; Alvera-Azcárate, A.; Barth, A.; Ouberdous, M.; Beckers, J.-M.

2009-04-01

In order to evaluate the variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Western Mediterranean Sea between 1985 and 2005, an integrated approach combining geostatistical tools and modelling techniques has been set up. The objectives are: underline the capability of each tool to capture characteristic phenomena, compare and assess the quality of their outputs, infer an interannual trend from the results. Diva (Data Interpolating Variationnal Analysis, Brasseur et al. (1996) Deep-Sea Res.) was applied on a collection of in situ data gathered from various sources (World Ocean Database 2005, Hydrobase2, Coriolis and MedAtlas2), from which duplicates and suspect values were removed. This provided monthly gridded fields in the region of interest. Heterogeneous time data coverage was taken into account by computing and removing the annual trend, provided by Diva detrending tool. Heterogeneous correlation length was applied through an advection constraint. Statistical technique DINEOF (Data Interpolation with Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Alvera-Azc

Analysis of Atmosphere-Ocean Surface Flux Feedbacks in Recent Satellite and Model Reanalysis Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, F. R.; Clayson, C. A.

2010-01-01

Recent investigations have examined observations in an attempt to determine when and how the ocean forces the atmosphere, and vice versa. These studies focus primarily on relationships between sea surface temperature anomalies and the turbulent and radiative surface heat fluxes. It has been found that both positive and negative feedbacks, which enhance or reduce sea surface temperature anomaly amplitudes, can be generated through changes in the surface boundary layer. Consequent changes in sea surface temperature act to change boundary layer characteristics through changes in static stability or turbulent fluxes. Previous studies over the global oceans have used coarse-resolution observational and model products such as ICOADS and the NCEP Reanalysis. This study focuses on documenting the atmosphere ocean feedbacks that exist in recently produced higher resolution products, namely the SeaFlux v1.0 product and the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). It has been noted in recent studies that evidence of oceanic forcing of the atmosphere exists on smaller scales than the usually more dominant atmospheric forcing of the ocean, particularly in higher latitudes. It is expected that use of these higher resolution products will allow for a more comprehensive description of these small-scale ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. The SeaFlux intercomparisons have revealed large scatter between various surface flux climatologies. This study also investigates the uncertainty in surface flux feedbacks based on several of these recent satellite based climatologies

Late Cretaceous to Miocene sea-level estimates from the New Jersey and Delaware coastal plain coreholes: An error analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kominz, M.A.; Browning, J.V.; Miller, K.G.; Sugarman, P.J.; Mizintseva, S.; Scotese, C.R.

2008-01-01

Sea level has been estimated for the last 108 million years through backstripping of corehole data from the New Jersey and Delaware Coastal Plains. Inherent errors due to this method of calculating sea level are discussed, including uncertainties in ages, depth of deposition and the model used for tectonic subsidence. Problems arising from the two-dimensional aspects of subsidence and response to sediment loads are also addressed. The rates and magnitudes of sea-level change are consistent with at least ephemeral ice sheets throughout the studied interval. Million-year sea-level cycles are, for the most part, consistent within the study area suggesting that they may be eustatic in origin. This conclusion is corroborated by correlation between sequence boundaries and unconformities in New Zealand. The resulting long-term curve suggests that sea level ranged from about 75-110 m in the Late Cretaceous, reached a maximum of about 150 m in the Early Eocene and fell to zero in the Miocene. The Late Cretaceous long-term (107 years) magnitude is about 100-150 m less than sea level predicted from ocean volume. This discrepancy can be reconciled by assuming that dynamic topography in New Jersey was driven by North America overriding the subducted Farallon plate. However, geodynamic models of this effect do not resolve the problem in that they require Eocene sea level to be significantly higher in the New Jersey region than the global average. ?? 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2008 Blackwell Publishing.

Under-Ice Phytoplankton Blooms Inhibited by Spring Convective Mixing in Refreezing Leads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, Kate E.; Pickart, Robert S.; Selz, Virginia; Mills, Matthew M.; Pacini, Astrid; Lewis, Kate M.; Joy-Warren, Hannah L.; Nobre, Carolina; van Dijken, Gert L.; Grondin, Pierre-Luc; Ferland, Joannie; Arrigo, Kevin R.

2018-01-01

Spring phytoplankton growth in polar marine ecosystems is limited by light availability beneath ice-covered waters, particularly early in the season prior to snowmelt and melt pond formation. Leads of open water increase light transmission to the ice-covered ocean and are sites of air-sea exchange. We explore the role of leads in controlling phytoplankton bloom dynamics within the sea ice zone of the Arctic Ocean. Data are presented from spring measurements in the Chukchi Sea during the Study of Under-ice Blooms In the Chukchi Ecosystem (SUBICE) program in May and June 2014. We observed that fully consolidated sea ice supported modest under-ice blooms, while waters beneath sea ice with leads had significantly lower phytoplankton biomass, despite high nutrient availability. Through an analysis of hydrographic and biological properties, we attribute this counterintuitive finding to springtime convective mixing in refreezing leads of open water. Our results demonstrate that waters beneath loosely consolidated sea ice (84-95% ice concentration) had weak stratification and were frequently mixed below the critical depth (the depth at which depth-integrated production balances depth-integrated respiration). These findings are supported by theoretical model calculations of under-ice light, primary production, and critical depth at varied lead fractions. The model demonstrates that under-ice blooms can form even beneath snow-covered sea ice in the absence of mixing but not in more deeply mixed waters beneath sea ice with refreezing leads. Future estimates of primary production should account for these phytoplankton dynamics in ice-covered waters.

Observing and Studying Extreme Low Pressure Events with Altimetry

PubMed Central

Carrère, Loren; Mertz, Françoise; Dorandeu, Joel; Quilfen, Yves; Patoux, Jerome

2009-01-01

The ability of altimetry to detect extreme low pressure events and the relationship between sea level pressure and sea level anomalies during extra-tropical depressions have been investigated. Specific altimeter treatments have been developed for tropical cyclones and applied to obtain a relevant along-track sea surface height (SSH) signal: the case of tropical cyclone Isabel is presented here. The S- and C-band measurements are used because they are less impacted by rain than the Ku-band, and new sea state bias (SSB) and wet troposphere corrections are proposed. More accurate strong altimeter wind speeds are computed thanks to the Young algorithm. Ocean signals not related to atmospheric pressure can be removed with accuracy, even within a Near Real Time context, by removing the maps of sea level anomaly (SLA) provided by SSALTO/Duacs. In the case of Extra-Tropical Depressions, the classical altimeter processing can be used. Ocean signal not related to atmospheric pressure is along-track filtered. The sea level pressure (SLP)-SLA relationship is investigated for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Indian oceans; three regression models are proposed allowing restoring an altimeter SLP with a mean error of 5 hPa if compared to ECMWF or buoys SLP. The analysis of barotropic simulation outputs points out the regional variability of the SLP/Model Sea Level relationship and the wind effects. PMID:22573955

An Ex Vivo Model for Studying Hepatic Schistosomiasis and the Effect of Released Protein from Dying Eggs

PubMed Central

Gobert, Geoffrey N.; Nawaratna, Sujeevi K.; Harvie, Marina; Ramm, Grant A.; McManus, Donald P.

2015-01-01

Background We report the use of an ex vivo precision cut liver slice (PCLS) mouse model for studying hepatic schistosomiasis. In this system, liver tissue is unfixed, unfrozen, and alive for maintenance in culture and subsequent molecular analysis. Methods and Findings Using thick naive mouse liver tissue and sterile culture conditions, the addition of soluble egg antigen (SEA) derived from Schistosoma japonicum eggs, followed 4, 24 and 48hrs time points. Tissue was collected for transcriptional analysis and supernatants collected to quantitate liver enzymes, cytokines and chemokines. No significant hepatotoxicity was demonstrated by supernatant liver enzymes due to the presence of SEA. A proinflammatory response was observed both at the transcriptional level and at the protein level by cytokine and chemokine bead assay. Key genes observed elevated transcription in response to the addition of SEA included: IL1-α and IL1-β, IL6, all associated with inflammation. The recruitment of antigen presenting cells was reflected in increases in transcription of CD40, CCL4 and CSF1. Indications of tissue remodeling were seen in elevated gene expression of various Matrix MetalloProteinases (MMP3, 9, 10, 13) and delayed increases in TIMP1. Collagen deposition was significantly reduced in the presence of SEA as shown in COL1A1 expression by qPCR after 24hrs culture. Cytokine and chemokine analysis of the culture supernatants confirmed the elevation of proteins including IL6, CCL3, CCL4 and CXCL5. Conclusions This ex vivo model system for the synchronised delivery of parasite antigen to liver tissue provides an insight into the early phase of hepatic schistosomiasis, corresponding with the release of soluble proteins from dying schistosome eggs. PMID:25965781

Delineating chalk sand distribution of Ekofisk formation using probabilistic neural network (PNN) and stepwise regression (SWR): Case study Danish North Sea field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haris, A.; Nafian, M.; Riyanto, A.

2017-07-01

Danish North Sea Fields consist of several formations (Ekofisk, Tor, and Cromer Knoll) that was started from the age of Paleocene to Miocene. In this study, the integration of seismic and well log data set is carried out to determine the chalk sand distribution in the Danish North Sea field. The integration of seismic and well log data set is performed by using the seismic inversion analysis and seismic multi-attribute. The seismic inversion algorithm, which is used to derive acoustic impedance (AI), is model-based technique. The derived AI is then used as external attributes for the input of multi-attribute analysis. Moreover, the multi-attribute analysis is used to generate the linear and non-linear transformation of among well log properties. In the case of the linear model, selected transformation is conducted by weighting step-wise linear regression (SWR), while for the non-linear model is performed by using probabilistic neural networks (PNN). The estimated porosity, which is resulted by PNN shows better suited to the well log data compared with the results of SWR. This result can be understood since PNN perform non-linear regression so that the relationship between the attribute data and predicted log data can be optimized. The distribution of chalk sand has been successfully identified and characterized by porosity value ranging from 23% up to 30%.

Anatomizing one of the largest saltwater inflows into the Baltic Sea in December 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gräwe, Ulf; Naumann, Michael; Mohrholz, Volker; Burchard, Hans

2015-11-01

In December 2014, an exceptional inflow event into the Baltic Sea was observed, a so-called Major Baltic Inflow (MBI). Such inflow events are important for the deep water ventilation in the Baltic Sea and typically occur every 3-10 years. Based on first observational data sets, this inflow had been ranked as the third largest since 100 years. With the help of a multinested modeling system, reaching from the North Atlantic (8 km resolution) to the Western Baltic Sea (600 m resolution, which is baroclinic eddy resolving), this event is reproduced in detail. The model gave a slightly lower salt transport of 3.8 Gt, compared to the observational estimate of four Gt. Moreover, by using passive tracers to mark the different inflowing water masses, including an age tracer, the inflowing water masses could be tracked and their paths and timing through the different basins could be reproduced and investigated. The analysis is supported by the recently developed Total Exchange Flow (TEF) to quantify the volume transport in different salinity classes. To account for uncertainties in the modeled velocity and tracer fields, a Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA) is applied to correct possible biases and errors. With the help of the MCA, 95% confidence intervals are computed for the transport estimates. Based on the MCA, the "best guess" of the volume transport is 291.0 ± 13.65 km3 and 3.89 ± 0.18 Gt for the total salt transport.

Pyrotechnic Shock Analysis Using Statistical Energy Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-23

SEA subsystems. A couple of validation examples are provided to demonstrate the new approach. KEY WORDS : Peak Ratio, phase perturbation...Ballistic Shock Prediction Models and Techniques for Use in the Crusader Combat Vehicle Program,” 11th Annual US Army Ground Vehicle Survivability

Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S. J.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mohandas, Saji; Mitra, A. K.

2017-09-01

Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability in the Asian monsoon, otherwise known as the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (MISO), is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, with large impacts on total monsoon rainfall and India's agricultural production. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in MISO is incomplete and its simulation in various numerical models is often flawed. In this study, we focus on the objective evaluation of the fidelity of MISO simulation in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), an initialized coupled model. We analyze a series of nine-member hindcasts from GloSea5 over 1996-2009 during the peak monsoon period (July-August) over the South-Asian monsoon domain focusing on aspects of the time-mean background state and air-sea interaction processes pertinent to MISO. Dominant modes during this period are evident in power spectrum analysis, but propagation and evolution characteristics of the MISO are not realistic. We find that simulated air-sea interactions in the central Indian Ocean are not supportive of MISO initiation in that region, likely a result of the low surface wind variance there. As a consequence, the expected near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and convection is not represented properly over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, and northward propagation from the equator is poorly simulated. This may reinforce the equatorial rainfall mean state bias in GloSea5.

The Caspian Sea Negotiation Support System 2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhani, O. M.; Madani, K.

2012-12-01

The Caspian Sea is one of the most resourceful (both in energy and biological resources) areas of the world. The share allocation of Caspian Sea has been the subject of many disputes. Up to now, the negotiations to reach an agreement regarding the ownership status of the sea have not been completely successful. To facilitate reaching an agreement among littoral countries, research studies can provide valuable information. Researchers should examine different options for dividing the sea closely and determine the benefits of each of the options for the parties involved. Following an earlier effort, Caspian Sea Negotiation Support System is further developed in this regard. The model estimates countries' areal and utility shares under different legal methods/scenarios, attempting to minimize transportation costs of exploiting the resource. The applied model is more efficient than the earlier model and the used data includes more variables/attributes such as depth, the differentiation between gas and oil, and various fish resources than the previously employed data. Consequently, the estimates are calculated in more details than are calculated in the earlier study. The results still show a high sensitivity of outputs to the proposed division rules, suggesting a need to clarify the countries' utility and areal shares under any suggested legal regime. Compared to the previous results, the new results confirm the significant effect of the addition of the more variables/attributes to the analysis, in terms of the areal shares and allocations, valuation of resources, and asset management.

Storm surges formation in the White and Barents Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav

2016-04-01

Investigation of storm surges in the Arctic seas are of high priority in Russia due to the active development of offshore oil and gas, construction of facilities in the coastal zone, as well as for the safety of navigation. It is important to study the variability of surges, to predict this phenomena and subsequent economic losses, thus including such information into the Russian Arctic Development Program 2020. Surges in the White and Barents Seas are caused mainly by deep cyclones of two types: "diving" from the north (88% of all cyclones) and western. The average height of the storm surges in the White Sea is 0.6-0.9 m. An average duration of storm surges is about 80 hours. Mathematical modeling is used to analyze the characteristics of storm surges formation in the Dvina Bay of the White Sea, and in the Varandey village on the Barents Sea coast. Calculating storm surge heights in the White and Barents seas is performed using the ADCIRC model on an unstructured grid with a step from 20 km in the Barents Sea to 100 m in the White Sea. Unstructured grids allowed keeping small features of the coastline of the White and Barents seas, small islands and shallow banks, and assessing their impact on the development and transformation of wind-generated waves. The ADCIRC model used data of wind field reanalysis CFSv2. The storm surges were simulated for the time period from 1979 to 2010 and included scenarios with / without direct atmospheric pressure forcing, waves and tides. Numerical experiments have revealed distribution of storm surges in channels of the Northern Dvina River delta. The storm surges spreads in the model from the north-north-west of the Dvina Bay. As storm surge moves from the wellhead to the seaside estuary of the Northern Dvina (district Solombala), its height increases from 0.5 to 2 m. We also found a non-linear interaction of the surge and tide during the phase of surge destruction. This phenomenon is the highest in the period of low water, and the smallest in the period full of water. Analysis of storm surges in the Varandey village (the southern part of the Barents Sea) showed that the maximum height of storm surge reached 2.9 m in this region in July, 2010. The work performed was supported by the RSCF (grant № 14-37-00038)

Revised paleoenvironmental analysis of the Holocene portion of the Barbados sea-level record: Cobbler's Reef revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toscano, Marguerite A.

2016-06-01

Sample elevations corrected for tectonic uplift and assessed relative to local modeled sea levels provide a new perspective on paleoenvironmental history at Cobbler's Reef, Barbados. Previously, 14C-dated surface samples of fragmented Acropora palmata plotted above paleo sea level based on their present (uplifted) elevations, suggesting supratidal rubble deposited during a period of extreme storms (4500-3000 cal BP), precipitating reef demise. At several sites, however, A. palmata persisted, existing until ~370 cal BP. Uplift-corrected A. palmata sample elevations lie below the western Atlantic sea-level curve, and ~2 m below ICE-6G-modeled paleo sea level, under slow rates of sea-level rise, negating the possibility that Cobbler's Reef is a supratidal storm ridge. Most sites show limited age ranges from corals likely damaged/killed on the reef crest, not the mixed ages of rubble ridges, strongly suggesting the reef framework died off in stages over 6500 yr. Reef crest death assemblages invoke multiple paleohistoric causes, from ubiquitous hurricanes to anthropogenic impacts. Comparison of death assemblage ages to dated regional paleotempestological sequences, proxy-based paleotemperatures, recorded hurricanes, tsunamis, European settlement, deforestation, and resulting turbidity, reveals many possible factors inimical to the survival of A. palmata along Cobbler's Reef.

Managing for No Net Loss of Ecological Services: An Approach for Quantifying Loss of Coastal Wetlands due to Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassakian, Jennifer; Jones, Ann; Martinich, Jeremy; Hudgens, Daniel

2017-05-01

Sea level rise has the potential to substantially alter the extent and nature of coastal wetlands and the critical ecological services they provide. In making choices about how to respond to rising sea level, planners are challenged with weighing easily quantified risks (e.g., loss of property value due to inundation) against those that are more difficult to quantify (e.g., loss of primary production or carbon sequestration services provided by wetlands due to inundation). Our goal was to develop a cost-effective, appropriately-scaled, model-based approach that allows planners to predict, under various sea level rise and response scenarios, the economic cost of wetland loss—with the estimates proxied by the costs of future restoration required to maintain the existing level of wetland habitat services. Our approach applies the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model to predict changes in wetland habitats over the next century, and then applies Habitat Equivalency Analysis to predict the cost of restoration projects required to maintain ecological services at their present, pre-sea level rise level. We demonstrate the application of this approach in the Delaware Bay estuary and in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida), and discuss how this approach can support future coastal decision-making.

Managing for No Net Loss of Ecological Services: An Approach for Quantifying Loss of Coastal Wetlands due to Sea Level Rise.

PubMed

Kassakian, Jennifer; Jones, Ann; Martinich, Jeremy; Hudgens, Daniel

2017-05-01

Sea level rise has the potential to substantially alter the extent and nature of coastal wetlands and the critical ecological services they provide. In making choices about how to respond to rising sea level, planners are challenged with weighing easily quantified risks (e.g., loss of property value due to inundation) against those that are more difficult to quantify (e.g., loss of primary production or carbon sequestration services provided by wetlands due to inundation). Our goal was to develop a cost-effective, appropriately-scaled, model-based approach that allows planners to predict, under various sea level rise and response scenarios, the economic cost of wetland loss-with the estimates proxied by the costs of future restoration required to maintain the existing level of wetland habitat services. Our approach applies the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model to predict changes in wetland habitats over the next century, and then applies Habitat Equivalency Analysis to predict the cost of restoration projects required to maintain ecological services at their present, pre-sea level rise level. We demonstrate the application of this approach in the Delaware Bay estuary and in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida), and discuss how this approach can support future coastal decision-making.

New estimates of lethality of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) attacks on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush): Implications for fisheries management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, C.P.; Chipman, B.D.; Marsden, J.E.

2008-01-01

Sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control in North America costs millions of dollars each year, and control measures are guided by assessment of lamprey-induced damage to fisheries. The favored prey of sea lamprey in freshwater ecosystems has been lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush). A key parameter in assessing sea lamprey damage, as well as managing lake trout fisheries, is the probability of an adult lake trout surviving a lamprey attack. The conventional value for this parameter has been 0.55, based on laboratory experiments. In contrast, based on catch curve analysis, mark-recapture techniques, and observed wounding rates, we estimated that adult lake trout in Lake Champlain have a 0.74 probability of surviving a lamprey attack. Although sea lamprey growth in Lake Champlain was lower than that observed in Lake Huron, application of an individual-based model to both lakes indicated that the probability of surviving an attack in Lake Champlain was only 1.1 times higher than that in Lake Huron. Thus, we estimated that lake trout survive a lamprey attack in Lake Huron with a probability of 0.66. Therefore, our results suggested that lethality of a sea lamprey attack on lake trout has been overestimated in previous model applications used in fisheries management. ?? 2008 NRC.

Wetland Responses to Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizad, K.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Morris, J. T.

2016-12-01

Coastal regions are vulnerable to flood risk due to climate change, sea level rise, and wetland losses. The Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) is a region in which extreme events are projected to be more intense under climate change and sea level rise scenarios [Wang et al., 2013; Bilskie et al., 2014]. Considering increased frequency and intensity of coastal flooding, wetlands are valuable natural resources that protect shorelines by dissipating waves and storm surges [Costanza et al., 2008]. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the response of salt marsh systems in different estuaries to sea level rise in the NGOM and their effects on storm surges to inform coastal managers to choose effective restoration plans. This research applies the coupled Hydro-MEM model [Alizad et al., 2016] to study three different estuarine systems in the NGOM. The model incorporates both sea level rise rate and feedbacks between physics and biology by coupling a hydrodynamic (ADCIRC) and salt marsh (MEM) model. The results of the model provide tidal hydrodynamics and biomass density change under four sea level rise projections during a 100-year period. The results are used to investigate marsh migration path in the estuarine systems. In addition, this study shows how marsh migration and biomass density change can impact storm surge modeling. The results imply the broader impacts of sea level rise on the estuarine systems in the NGOM. ReferencesAlizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, P. Bacopoulos, M. V. Bilskie, J. Weishampel, and S. C. Medeiros (2016), A coupled, two-dimensional hydrodynamic-marsh model with biological feedback, Ecological Modeling, 327, 29-43. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Costanza, R., O. Pérez-Maqueo, M. L. Martinez, P. Sutton, S. J. Anderson, and K. Mulder (2008), The Value of Coastal Wetlands for Hurricane Protection, AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 37(4). Wang, D., S. C. Hagen, and K. Alizad (2013), Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis of extreme rainfall events in the Apalachicola River basin, Florida, Journal of Hydrology, 480(0), 125-135.

Sea Ice and Hydrographic Variability in the Northwest North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenty, I. G.; Heimbach, P.; Wunsch, C. I.

2010-12-01

Sea ice anomalies in the Northwest North Atlantic's Labrador Sea are of climatic interest because of known and hypothesized feedbacks with hydrographic anomalies, deep convection/mode water formation, and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric patterns. As greenhouse gas concentrations increase, hydrographic anomalies formed in the Arctic Ocean associated with warming will propagate into the Labrador Sea via the Fram Strait/West Greenland Current and the Canadian Archipelago/Baffin Island Current. Therefore, understanding the dynamical response of sea ice in the basin to hydrographic anomalies is essential for the prediction and interpretation of future high-latitude climate change. Historically, efforts to quantify the link between the observed sea ice and hydrographic variability in the region has been limited due to in situ observation paucity and technical challenges associated with synthesizing ocean and sea ice observations with numerical models. To elaborate the relationship between sea ice and ocean variability, we create three one-year (1992-1993, 1996-1997, 2003-2004) three-dimensional time-varying reconstructions of the ocean and sea ice state in Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. The reconstructions are syntheses of a regional coupled 32 km ocean-sea ice model with a suite of contemporary in situ and satellite hydrographic and ice data using the adjoint method. The model and data are made consistent, in a least-squares sense, by iteratively adjusting several model control variables (e.g., ocean initial and lateral boundary conditions and the atmospheric state) to minimize an uncertainty-weighted model-data misfit cost function. The reconstructions reveal that the ice pack attains a state of quasi-equilibrium in mid-March (the annual sea ice maximum) in which the total ice-covered area reaches a steady state -ice production and dynamical divergence along the coasts balances dynamical convergence and melt along the pack’s seaward edge. Sea ice advected to the marginal ice zone is mainly ablated via large sustained turbulent ocean enthalpy fluxes. The sensible heat required for these sustained fluxes is drawn from a reservoir of warm subsurface waters of subtropical origin entrained into the mixed layer via convective mixing. Analysis of ocean surface buoyancy fluxes during the period preceding quasi-equilibrium reveals that low-salinity upper ocean anomalies are required for ice to advance seaward of the Arctic Water/Irminger Water thermohaline front in the northern Labrador Sea. Anomalous low-salinity waters inhibit mixed layer deepening, shielding the advancing ice pack from the subsurface heat reservoir, and are conducive to a positive surface stratification enhancement feedback from ice meltwater release. Interestingly, the climatological location of the front coincides with the minimum observed wintertime ice extent; positive ice extent anomalies may require hydrographic preconditioning. If true, the export of low-salinity anomalies from melting Arctic ice associated with future warming may be predicted to lead positive ice extent anomalies in Labrador Sea via the positive surface stratification enhancement mechanism feedback outlined above.

Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2017-08-01

The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

Cuvier's Beaked Whale, Ziphius cavirostris, Distribution and Occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea: High-Use Areas and Conservation Threats.

PubMed

Podestà, M; Azzellino, A; Cañadas, A; Frantzis, A; Moulins, A; Rosso, M; Tepsich, P; Lanfredi, C

Cuvier's beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris G. Cuvier, 1823) is the only beaked whale species commonly found in the Mediterranean Sea. Until recently, species presence in this area was only inferred from stranding events. Dedicated cetacean surveys have increased our knowledge of the distribution of Cuvier's beaked whales, even though many areas still remain unexplored. Here, we present an updated analysis of available sighting and stranding data, focusing on the atypical mass strandings that have occurred in the Mediterranean Sea since 1963. We describe in detail the five more recent events (2006-14), highlighting their relationship with naval exercises that used mid-frequency active sonar. The distribution of the species is apparently characterized by areas of high density where animals seem to be relatively abundant, including the Alborán Sea, Ligurian Sea, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, southern Adriatic Sea and the Hellenic Trench, but other such areas may exist where little or no survey work has been conducted. Population size has been estimated for the Alborán and Ligurian seas. Habitat modelling studies for those areas, confirmed the species preference for the continental slope and its particular association with submarine canyons, as has also been found to be the case in other areas of the world. The application of results from habitat modelling to areas different from their calibration sites is proposed as a management tool for minimizing the potential impacts of human activities at sea. Military sonar is known worldwide as a threat for this species and is suggested to be a major threat for Cuvier's beaked whale in the Mediterranean Sea. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of Arctic sea ice variability modes on interannual timescales via nonhierarchical clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fučkar, Neven-Stjepan; Guemas, Virginie; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

2015-04-01

Over the modern observational era, the northern hemisphere sea ice concentration, age and thickness have experienced a sharp long-term decline superimposed with strong internal variability. Hence, there is a crucial need to identify robust patterns of Arctic sea ice variability on interannual timescales and disentangle them from the long-term trend in noisy datasets. The principal component analysis (PCA) is a versatile and broadly used method for the study of climate variability. However, the PCA has several limiting aspects because it assumes that all modes of variability have symmetry between positive and negative phases, and suppresses nonlinearities by using a linear covariance matrix. Clustering methods offer an alternative set of dimension reduction tools that are more robust and capable of taking into account possible nonlinear characteristics of a climate field. Cluster analysis aggregates data into groups or clusters based on their distance, to simultaneously minimize the distance between data points in a given cluster and maximize the distance between the centers of the clusters. We extract modes of Arctic interannual sea-ice variability with nonhierarchical K-means cluster analysis and investigate the mechanisms leading to these modes. Our focus is on the sea ice thickness (SIT) as the base variable for clustering because SIT holds most of the climate memory for variability and predictability on interannual timescales. We primarily use global reconstructions of sea ice fields with a state-of-the-art ocean-sea-ice model, but we also verify the robustness of determined clusters in other Arctic sea ice datasets. Applied cluster analysis over the 1958-2013 period shows that the optimal number of detrended SIT clusters is K=3. Determined SIT cluster patterns and their time series of occurrence are rather similar between different seasons and months. Two opposite thermodynamic modes are characterized with prevailing negative or positive SIT anomalies over the Arctic basin. The intermediate mode, with negative anomalies centered on the East Siberian shelf and positive anomalies along the North American side of the basin, has predominately dynamic characteristics. The associated sea ice concentration (SIC) clusters vary more between different seasons and months, but the SIC patterns are physically framed by the SIT cluster patterns.

Contribution of mesoscale eddies to Black Sea ventilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capet, Arthur; Mason, Evan; Pascual, Ananda; Grégoire, Marilaure

2017-04-01

The shoaling of the Black Sea oxycline is one of the most urgent environmental issues in the Black Sea. The permanent oxycline derives directly from the Black Sea permanent stratification and has shoaled alarmingly in the last decades, due to a shifting balance between oxygen consumption and ventilation processes (Capet et al. 2016). The understanding of this balance is thus of the utmost importance and requires to quantify 1) the export of nutrients and organic materials from the shelf regions to the open sea and 2) the ventilation processes. These two processes being influenced by mesoscale features, it is critical to understand the role of the semi-permanent mesoscale structures in horizontal (center/periphery) and vertical (diapycnal and isopycnal) exchanges. A useful insight can be obtained by merging observations from satellite altimeter and in situ profilers (ARGO). In such composite analyses, eddies are first automatically identified and tracked from altimeter data (Mason et al. 2014, py-eddy-tracker). Vertical ARGO profiles are then expressed in terms of their position relative to eddy centers and radii. Derived statistics indicate how consistently mesoscale eddies alter the vertical structure, and provide a deeper understanding of the associated horizontal and vertical fluxes. However, this data-based approach is limited in the Black Sea due to the lower quality of gridded altimetric products in the vicinity of the coast, where semi-permanent mesoscale structures prevail. To complement the difficult analysis of this sparse dataset, a compositing methodology. is also applied to model outputs from the 5km GHER-BHAMBI Black Sea implementation (CMEMS BS-MFC). Characteristic biogeochemical anomalies associated with eddies in the model are analyzed per se, and compared to the observation-based analysis. Capet, A., Stanev, E. V., Beckers, J.-M., Murray, J. W., and Grégoire, M.: Decline of the Black Sea oxygen inventory, Biogeosciences, 13, 1287-1297, doi:10.5194/bg-13-1287-2016, 2016. Mason, Evan, Ananda Pascual, and James C. McWilliams. "A new sea surface height-based code for oceanic mesoscale eddy tracking." Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 31.5 (2014): 1181-1188.

Regional Changes in the Sea Ice Cover and Ice Production in the Antarctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2011-01-01

Coastal polynyas around the Antarctic continent have been regarded as sea ice factories because of high ice production rates in these regions. The observation of a positive trend in the extent of Antarctic sea ice during the satellite era has been intriguing in light of the observed rapid decline of the ice extent in the Arctic. The results of analysis of the time series of passive microwave data indicate large regional variability with the trends being strongly positive in the Ross Sea, strongly negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas and close to zero in the other regions. The atmospheric circulation in the Antarctic is controlled mainly by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the marginal ice zone around the continent shows an alternating pattern of advance and retreat suggesting the presence of a propagating wave (called Antarctic Circumpolar Wave) around the circumpolar region. The results of analysis of the passive microwave data suggest that the positive trend in the Antarctic sea ice cover could be caused primarily by enhanced ice production in the Ross Sea that may be associated with more persistent and larger coastal polynyas in the region. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate-of-increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 km2 per year. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 km3/year, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. In addition to the possibility of changes in SAM, modeling studies have also indicated that the ozone hole may have a role in that it causes the deepening of the lows in the western Antarctic region thereby causing strong winds to occur offthe Ross-ice shelf.

Comparative analysis of early ontogeny in Bursatella leachii and Aplysia californica

PubMed Central

Vue, Zer; Capo, Thomas R.; Bardales, Ana T.

2014-01-01

Opisthobranch molluscs exhibit fascinating body plans associated with the evolution of shell loss in multiple lineages. Sea hares in particular are interesting because Aplysia californica is a well-studied model organism that offers a large suite of genetic tools. Bursatella leachii is a related tropical sea hare that lacks a shell as an adult and therefore lends itself to comparative analysis with A. californica. We have established an enhanced culturing procedure for B. leachii in husbandry that enabled the study of shell formation and loss in this lineage with respect to A. californica life staging. PMID:25538871

WET-NZ Multi-Mode Wave Energy Converter Advancement Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kopf, Steven

2013-10-15

The overall objective of the project was to verify the ocean wavelength functionality of the WET-NZ through targeted hydrodynamic testing at wave tank scale and controlled open sea deployment of a 1/2 scale (1:2) experimental device. This objective was accomplished through a series of tasks designed to achieve four specific goals: Wave Tank Testing to Characterize Hydrodynamic Characteristics;  Open-Sea Testing of a New 1:2 Scale Experimental Model;  Synthesis and Analysis to Demonstrate and Confirm TRL5/6 Status;  Market Impact & Competitor Analysis, Business Plan and Commercialization Strategy.

Observations and analysis of lunar radio emission at 3.09 mm wavelength

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulich, B. L.; Cogdell, J. R.; Davis, J. H.; Calvert, T. A.

1974-01-01

An analysis of data on lunar radio emission at 3.09 mm wavelength is presented. The data were obtained during a single lunation in a manner that facilitates their comparison with a calculated model. Specific regions of the moon (Copernicus, Sea of Serenity, Sea of Tranquillity, Ocean of Storms, and an highland region near the mean center) were studied with enough angular resolution to distinguish between different types of terrain. The data were absolutely calibrated and yield a new measurement of the lunation average brightness temperature of the center of the moon.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific: seasonal variation and source attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.; Zhang, L.; Pan, Y.; Wang, Y.; Paulot, F.; Henze, D. K.

2015-09-01

Rapid Asian industrialization has led to increased downwind atmospheric nitrogen deposition threatening the marine environment. We present an analysis of the sources and processes controlling atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific, using the GEOS-Chem global chemistry model and its adjoint model at 1/2° × 2/3° horizontal resolution over East Asia and its adjacent oceans. We focus our analyses on the marginal seas: the Yellow Sea and the South China Sea. Asian nitrogen emissions in the model are 28.6 Tg N a-1 as NH3 and 15.7 Tg N a-1 as NOx. China has the largest sources with 12.8 Tg N a-1 as NH3 and 7.9 Tg N a-1 as NOx; the high-NH3 emissions reflect its intensive agricultural activities. We find Asian NH3 emissions are a factor of 3 higher in summer than winter. The model simulation for 2008-2010 is evaluated with NH3 and NO2 column observations from satellite instruments, and wet deposition flux measurements from surface monitoring sites. Simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific ranges 0.8-20 kg N ha-1 a-1, decreasing rapidly downwind of the Asian continent. Deposition fluxes average 11.9 kg N ha-1 a-1 (5.0 as reduced nitrogen NHx and 6.9 as oxidized nitrogen NOy) to the Yellow Sea, and 5.6 kg N ha-1 a-1 (2.5 as NHx and 3.1 as NOy) to the South China Sea. Nitrogen sources over the ocean (ship NOx and oceanic NH3) have little contribution to deposition over the Yellow Sea, about 7 % over the South China Sea, and become important (greater than 30 %) further downwind. We find that the seasonality of nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific is determined by variations in meteorology largely controlled by the East Asian monsoon and in nitrogen emissions. The model adjoint further estimates that nitrogen deposition to the Yellow Sea originates from sources over China (92 % contribution) and the Korean peninsula (7 %), and by sectors from fertilizer use (24 %), power plants (22 %), and transportation (18 %). Deposition to the South China Sea shows source contribution from mainland China (66 %), Taiwan (20 %), and the rest (14 %) from the southeast Asian countries and oceanic NH3 emissions. The adjoint analyses also indicate that reducing Asian NH3 emissions would increase NOy dry deposition to the Yellow Sea (28 % offset annually), limiting the effectiveness of NH3 emission controls on reducing nitrogen deposition to the Yellow Sea.

On the retrieval of sea ice thickness and snow depth using concurrent laser altimetry and L-band remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Lu; Xu, Shiming; Liu, Jiping; Wang, Bin

2018-03-01

The accurate knowledge of sea ice parameters, including sea ice thickness and snow depth over the sea ice cover, is key to both climate studies and data assimilation in operational forecasts. Large-scale active and passive remote sensing is the basis for the estimation of these parameters. In traditional altimetry or the retrieval of snow depth with passive microwave remote sensing, although the sea ice thickness and the snow depth are closely related, the retrieval of one parameter is usually carried out under assumptions over the other. For example, climatological snow depth data or as derived from reanalyses contain large or unconstrained uncertainty, which result in large uncertainty in the derived sea ice thickness and volume. In this study, we explore the potential of combined retrieval of both sea ice thickness and snow depth using the concurrent active altimetry and passive microwave remote sensing of the sea ice cover. Specifically, laser altimetry and L-band passive remote sensing data are combined using two forward models: the L-band radiation model and the isostatic relationship based on buoyancy model. Since the laser altimetry usually features much higher spatial resolution than L-band data from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite, there is potentially covariability between the observed snow freeboard by altimetry and the retrieval target of snow depth on the spatial scale of altimetry samples. Statistically significant correlation is discovered based on high-resolution observations from Operation IceBridge (OIB), and with a nonlinear fitting the covariability is incorporated in the retrieval algorithm. By using fitting parameters derived from large-scale surveys, the retrievability is greatly improved compared with the retrieval that assumes flat snow cover (i.e., no covariability). Verifications with OIB data show good match between the observed and the retrieved parameters, including both sea ice thickness and snow depth. With detailed analysis, we show that the error of the retrieval mainly arises from the difference between the modeled and the observed (SMOS) L-band brightness temperature (TB). The narrow swath and the limited coverage of the sea ice cover by altimetry is the potential source of error associated with the modeling of L-band TB and retrieval. The proposed retrieval methodology can be applied to the basin-scale retrieval of sea ice thickness and snow depth, using concurrent passive remote sensing and active laser altimetry based on satellites such as ICESat-2 and WCOM.

Population pharmacokinetics of enrofloxacin in purple sea stars (Pisaster ochraceus) following an intracoelomic injection or extended immersion.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Justin F; Haulena, Martin; Phillips, Brianne E; Harms, Craig A; Lewbart, Gregory A; Lahner, Lesanna L; Papich, Mark G

2016-11-01

OBJECTIVE To determine population pharmacokinetics of enrofloxacin in purple sea stars (Pisaster ochraceus) administered an intracoelomic injection of enrofloxacin (5 mg/kg) or immersed in an enrofloxacin solution (5 mg/L) for 6 hours. ANIMALS 28 sea stars of undetermined age and sex. PROCEDURES The study had 2 phases. Twelve sea stars received an intracoelomic injection of enrofloxacin (5 mg/kg) or were immersed in an enrofloxacin solution (5 mg/L) for 6 hours during the injection and immersion phases, respectively. Two untreated sea stars were housed with the treated animals following enrofloxacin administration during both phases. Water vascular system fluid samples were collected from 4 sea stars and all controls at predetermined times during and after enrofloxacin administration. The enrofloxacin concentration in those samples was determined by high-performance liquid chromatography. For each phase, noncompartmental analysis of naïve averaged pooled samples was used to obtain initial parameter estimates; then, population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed that accounted for the sparse sampling technique used. RESULTS Injection phase data were best fit with a 2-compartment model; elimination half-life, peak concentration, area under the curve, and volume of distribution were 42.8 hours, 18.9 μg/mL, 353.8 μg•h/mL, and 0.25 L/kg, respectively. Immersion phase data were best fit with a 1-compartment model; elimination half-life, peak concentration, and area under the curve were 56 hours, 36.3 μg•h/mL, and 0.39 μg/mL, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results suggested that the described enrofloxacin administration resulted in water vascular system fluid drug concentrations expected to exceed the minimum inhibitory concentration for many bacterial pathogens.

Graph theory applied to noise and vibration control in statistical energy analysis models.

PubMed

Guasch, Oriol; Cortés, Lluís

2009-06-01

A fundamental aspect of noise and vibration control in statistical energy analysis (SEA) models consists in first identifying and then reducing the energy flow paths between subsystems. In this work, it is proposed to make use of some results from graph theory to address both issues. On the one hand, linear and path algebras applied to adjacency matrices of SEA graphs are used to determine the existence of any order paths between subsystems, counting and labeling them, finding extremal paths, or determining the power flow contributions from groups of paths. On the other hand, a strategy is presented that makes use of graph cut algorithms to reduce the energy flow from a source subsystem to a receiver one, modifying as few internal and coupling loss factors as possible.

Sea Ice in the NCEP Seasonal Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Saha, S.; Grumbine, R. W.; Bailey, D. A.; Carton, J.; Penny, S. G.

2017-12-01

Sea ice is known to play a significant role in the global climate system. For a weather or climate forecast system (CFS), it is important that the realistic distribution of sea ice is represented. Sea ice prediction is challenging; sea ice can form or melt, it can move with wind and/or ocean current; sea ice interacts with both the air above and ocean underneath, it influences by, and has impact on the air and ocean conditions. NCEP has developed coupled CFS (version 2, CFSv2) and also carried out CFS reanalysis (CFSR), which includes a coupled model with the NCEP global forecast system, a land model, an ocean model (GFDL MOM4), and a sea ice model. In this work, we present the NCEP coupled model, the CFSv2 sea ice component that includes a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model and a simple "assimilation" scheme, how sea ice has been assimilated in CFSR, the characteristics of the sea ice from CFSR and CFSv2, and the improvements of sea ice needed for future seasonal prediction system, part of the Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS), which is being developed and under testing, including sea ice data assimilation with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Preliminary results from the UGCS testing will also be presented.

A graph theory approach to identify resonant and non-resonant transmission paths in statistical modal energy distribution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragonès, Àngels; Maxit, Laurent; Guasch, Oriol

2015-08-01

Statistical modal energy distribution analysis (SmEdA) extends classical statistical energy analysis (SEA) to the mid frequency range by establishing power balance equations between modes in different subsystems. This circumvents the SEA requirement of modal energy equipartition and enables applying SmEdA to the cases of low modal overlap, locally excited subsystems and to deal with complex heterogeneous subsystems as well. Yet, widening the range of application of SEA is done at a price with large models because the number of modes per subsystem can become considerable when the frequency increases. Therefore, it would be worthwhile to have at one's disposal tools for a quick identification and ranking of the resonant and non-resonant paths involved in modal energy transmission between subsystems. It will be shown that previously developed graph theory algorithms for transmission path analysis (TPA) in SEA can be adapted to SmEdA and prove useful for that purpose. The case of airborne transmission between two cavities separated apart by homogeneous and ribbed plates will be first addressed to illustrate the potential of the graph approach. A more complex case representing transmission between non-contiguous cavities in a shipbuilding structure will be also presented.

Towards The Operational Oceanographic Model System In Estonian Coastal Sea, Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kõuts, T.; Elken, J.; Raudsepp, U.

An integrated system of nested 2D and 3D hydrodynamic models together with real time forcing data asquisition is designed and set up in pre-operational mode in the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga, the Baltic Sea. Along the Estonian coast, implicit time-stepping 3D models are used in the deep bays and 2D models in the shallow bays with ca 200 m horizontal grid step. Specific model setups have been verified by in situ current measurements. Optimum configuration of initial parameters has been found for certain critical locations, usually ports, oil terminals, etc. Operational system in- tegrates also section of historical database of most important hydrologic parameters in the region, allowing use of certain statistical analysis and proper setup of initial conditions for oceanographic models. There is large variety of applications for such model system, ranging from environmental impact assessment at local coastal sea pol- lution problems to forecast of offshore blue algal blooms. Most probable risk factor in the coastal sea engineering is oil pollution, therefore current operational model sys- tem has direct custom oriented output the oil spill forecast for critical locations. Oil spill module of the operational system consist the automatic weather and hydromet- ric station (distributed in real time to internet) and prognostic model of sea surface currents. System is run using last 48 hour wind data and wind forecast and estimates probable oil deposition areas on the shoreline under certain weather conditions. Cal- culated evolution of oil pollution has been compared with some real accidents in the past and there was found good agreement between model and measurements. Graphi- cal user interface of oil spill model is currently installed at location of port authorities (eg. Muuga port), so in case of accidents it could be used in real time supporting the rescue operations. In 2000 current pre-operational oceanographic model system has been sucessfully used to evaluate environmental impacts of three different deep-port construction options in Saaremaa, NW the Baltic Sea. Intensive campaign of field measurements, consisting the high-resolution surveys of thermohaline properties of water masses (CTD) and timeseries as well horisontal structure of currents were in good agreement with model calculations. Model system well simulated the transport of pollution by surface currents originating from potential port locations at NW coast of the Saaremaa. It allowed to choose the optimum location for port and give also some hindcasts for port construction and exploitation.

Variational data assimilation system "INM RAS - Black Sea"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmuzin, Eugene; Agoshkov, Valery; Assovskiy, Maksim; Giniatulin, Sergey; Zakharova, Natalia; Kuimov, Grigory; Fomin, Vladimir

2013-04-01

Development of Informational-Computational Systems (ICS) for Data Assimilation Procedures is one of multidisciplinary problems. To study and solve these problems one needs to apply modern results from different disciplines and recent developments in: mathematical modeling; theory of adjoint equations and optimal control; inverse problems; numerical methods theory; numerical algebra and scientific computing. The problems discussed above are studied in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Science (INM RAS) in ICS for Personal Computers (PC). Special problems and questions arise while effective ICS versions for PC are being developed. These problems and questions can be solved with applying modern methods of numerical mathematics and by solving "parallelism problem" using OpenMP technology and special linear algebra packages. In this work the results on the ICS development for PC-ICS "INM RAS - Black Sea" are presented. In the work the following problems and questions are discussed: practical problems that can be studied by ICS; parallelism problems and their solutions with applying of OpenMP technology and the linear algebra packages used in ICS "INM - Black Sea"; Interface of ICS. The results of ICS "INM RAS - Black Sea" testing are presented. Efficiency of technologies and methods applied are discussed. The work was supported by RFBR, grants No. 13-01-00753, 13-05-00715 and by The Ministry of education and science of Russian Federation, project 8291, project 11.519.11.1005 References: [1] V.I. Agoshkov, M.V. Assovskii, S.A. Lebedev, Numerical simulation of Black Sea hydrothermodynamics taking into account tide-forming forces. Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling (2012) 27, No.1, 5-31 [2] E.I. Parmuzin, V.I. Agoshkov, Numerical solution of the variational assimilation problem for sea surface temperature in the model of the Black Sea dynamics. Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling (2012) 27, No.1, 69-94 [3] V.B. Zalesny, N.A. Diansky, V.V. Fomin, S.N. Moshonkin, S.G. Demyshev, Numerical model of the circulation of Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling (2012) 27, No.1, 95-111 [4] V.I. Agoshkov, S.V. Giniatulin, G.V. Kuimov. OpenMP technology and linear algebra packages in the variation data assimilation systems. - Abstracts of the 1-st China-Russia Conference on Numerical Algebra with Applications in Radiactive Hydrodynamics, Beijing, China, October 16-18, 2012. [5] Zakharova N.B., Agoshkov V.I., Parmuzin E.I., The new method of ARGO buoys system observation data interpolation. Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling. Vol. 28, Issue 1, 2013.

Some Results on Sea Ice Rheology for the Seasonal Ice Zone, Obtained from the Deformation Field of Sea Ice Drift Pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyota, T.; Kimura, N.

2017-12-01

Sea ice rheology which relates sea ice stress to the large-scale deformation of the ice cover has been a big issue to numerical sea ice modelling. At present the treatment of internal stress within sea ice area is based mostly on the rheology formulated by Hibler (1979), where the whole sea ice area behaves like an isotropic and plastic matter under the ordinary stress with the yield curve given by an ellipse with an aspect ratio (e) of 2, irrespective of sea ice area and horizontal resolution of the model. However, this formulation was initially developed to reproduce the seasonal variation of the perennial ice in the Arctic Ocean. As for its applicability to the seasonal ice zones (SIZ), where various types of sea ice are present, it still needs validation from observational data. In this study, the validity of this rheology was examined for the Sea of Okhotsk ice, typical of the SIZ, based on the AMSR-derived ice drift pattern in comparison with the result obtained for the Beaufort Sea. To examine the dependence on a horizontal scale, the coastal radar data operated near the Hokkaido coast, Japan, were also used. Ice drift pattern was obtained by a maximum cross-correlation method with grid spacings of 37.5 km from the 89 GHz brightness temperature of AMSR-E for the entire Sea of Okhotsk and the Beaufort Sea and 1.3 km from the coastal radar for the near-shore Sea of Okhotsk. The validity of this rheology was investigated from a standpoint of work rate done by deformation field, following the theory of Rothrock (1975). In analysis, the relative rates of convergence were compared between theory and observation to check the shape of yield curve, and the strain ellipse at each grid cell was estimated to see the horizontal variation of deformation field. The result shows that the ellipse of e=1.7-2.0 as the yield curve represents the observed relative conversion rates well for all the ice areas. Since this result corresponds with the yield criterion by Tresca and Von Mises for a 2D plastic matter, it suggests the validity and applicability of this rheology to the SIZ to some extent. However, it was also noted that the variation of the deformation field in the Sea of Okhotsk is much larger than in the Beaufort Sea, which indicates the need for the careful treatment of grid size in the model.

Empowering Geoscience with Improved Data Assimilation Using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed "Manhattan" Release.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raeder, K.; Hoar, T. J.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Hendricks, J.; Kershaw, H.; Ha, S.; Snyder, C.; Skamarock, W. C.; Mizzi, A. P.; Liu, H.; Liu, J.; Pedatella, N. M.; Karspeck, A. R.; Karol, S. I.; Bitz, C. M.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

The capabilities of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) at NCAR have been significantly expanded with the recent "Manhattan" release. DART is an ensemble Kalman filter based suite of tools, which enables researchers to use data assimilation (DA) without first becoming DA experts. Highlights: significant improvement in efficient ensemble DA for very large models on thousands of processors, direct read and write of model state files in parallel, more control of the DA output for finer-grained analysis, new model interfaces which are useful to a variety of geophysical researchers, new observation forward operators and the ability to use precomputed forward operators from the forecast model. The new model interfaces and example applications include the following: MPAS-A; Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere is a global, nonhydrostatic, variable-resolution mesh atmospheric model, which facilitates multi-scale analysis and forecasting. The absence of distinct subdomains eliminates problems associated with subdomain boundaries. It demonstrates the ability to consistently produce higher-quality analyses than coarse, uniform meshes do. WRF-Chem; Weather Research and Forecasting + (MOZART) Chemistry model assimilates observations from FRAPPÉ (Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment). WACCM-X; Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension assimilates observations of electron density to investigate sudden stratospheric warming. CESM (weakly) coupled assimilation; NCAR's Community Earth System Model is used for assimilation of atmospheric and oceanic observations into their respective components using coupled atmosphere+land+ocean+sea+ice forecasts. CESM2.0; Assimilation in the atmospheric component (CAM, WACCM) of the newly released version is supported. This version contains new and extensively updated components and software environment. CICE; Los Alamos sea ice model (in CESM) is used to assimilate multivariate sea ice concentration observations to constrain the model's ice thickness, concentration, and parameters.

Site Selection and Resource Allocation of Oil Spill Emergency Base for Offshore Oil Facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yunbin; Liu, Jingxian; Wei, Lei; Wu, Weihuang

2018-02-01

Based on the analysis of the historical data about oil spill accidents in the Bohai Sea, this paper discretizes oil spilled source into a limited number of spill points. According to the probability of oil spill risk, the demand for salvage forces at each oil spill point is evaluated. Aiming at the specific location of the rescue base around the Bohai Sea, a cost-benefit analysis is conducted to determine the total cost of disasters for each rescue base. Based on the relationship between the oil spill point and the rescue site, a multi-objective optimization location model for the oil spill rescue base in the Bohai Sea region is established. And the genetic algorithm is used to solve the optimization problem, and determine the emergency rescue base optimization program and emergency resources allocation ratio.

Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhatt, Uma S.; Wackerbauer, Renate; Polyakov, Igor V.

The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were appliedmore » to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.« less

A catalogue of 136 microbial draft genomes from Red Sea metagenomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haroon, Mohamed F.; Thompson, Luke R.; Parks, Donovan H.; Hugenholtz, Philip; Stingl, Ulrich

2016-07-01

Earth is expected to continue warming and the Red Sea is a model environment for understanding the effects of global warming on ocean microbiomes due to its unusually high temperature, salinity and solar irradiance. However, most microbial diversity analyses of the Red Sea have been limited to cultured representatives and single marker gene analyses, hence neglecting the substantial uncultured majority. Here, we report 136 microbial genomes (completion minus contamination is ≥50%) assembled from 45 metagenomes from eight stations spanning the Red Sea and taken from multiple depths between 10 to 500 m. Phylogenomic analysis showed that most of the retrieved genomes belong to seven different phyla of known marine microbes, but more than half representing currently uncultured species. The open-access data presented here is the largest number of Red Sea representative microbial genomes reported in a single study and will help facilitate future studies in understanding the physiology of these microorganisms and how they have adapted to the relatively harsh conditions of the Red Sea.

A catalogue of 136 microbial draft genomes from Red Sea metagenomes.

PubMed

Haroon, Mohamed F; Thompson, Luke R; Parks, Donovan H; Hugenholtz, Philip; Stingl, Ulrich

2016-07-05

Earth is expected to continue warming and the Red Sea is a model environment for understanding the effects of global warming on ocean microbiomes due to its unusually high temperature, salinity and solar irradiance. However, most microbial diversity analyses of the Red Sea have been limited to cultured representatives and single marker gene analyses, hence neglecting the substantial uncultured majority. Here, we report 136 microbial genomes (completion minus contamination is ≥50%) assembled from 45 metagenomes from eight stations spanning the Red Sea and taken from multiple depths between 10 to 500 m. Phylogenomic analysis showed that most of the retrieved genomes belong to seven different phyla of known marine microbes, but more than half representing currently uncultured species. The open-access data presented here is the largest number of Red Sea representative microbial genomes reported in a single study and will help facilitate future studies in understanding the physiology of these microorganisms and how they have adapted to the relatively harsh conditions of the Red Sea.

A Spectral Element Ocean Model on the Cray T3D: the interannual variability of the Mediterranean Sea general circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molcard, A. J.; Pinardi, N.; Ansaloni, R.

A new numerical model, SEOM (Spectral Element Ocean Model, (Iskandarani et al, 1994)), has been implemented in the Mediterranean Sea. Spectral element methods combine the geometric flexibility of finite element techniques with the rapid convergence rate of spectral schemes. The current version solves the shallow water equations with a fifth (or sixth) order accuracy spectral scheme and about 50.000 nodes. The domain decomposition philosophy makes it possible to exploit the power of parallel machines. The original MIMD master/slave version of SEOM, written in F90 and PVM, has been ported to the Cray T3D. When critical for performance, Cray specific high-performance one-sided communication routines (SHMEM) have been adopted to fully exploit the Cray T3D interprocessor network. Tests performed with highly unstructured and irregular grid, on up to 128 processors, show an almost linear scalability even with unoptimized domain decomposition techniques. Results from various case studies on the Mediterranean Sea are shown, involving realistic coastline geometry, and monthly mean 1000mb winds from the ECMWF's atmospheric model operational analysis from the period January 1987 to December 1994. The simulation results show that variability in the wind forcing considerably affect the circulation dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea.

Unstructured grid modelling of offshore wind farm impacts on seasonally stratified shelf seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazenave, Pierre William; Torres, Ricardo; Allen, J. Icarus

2016-06-01

Shelf seas comprise approximately 7% of the world's oceans and host enormous economic activity. Development of energy installations (e.g. Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs), tidal turbines) in response to increased demand for renewable energy requires a careful analysis of potential impacts. Recent remote sensing observations have identified kilometre-scale impacts from OWFs. Existing modelling evaluating monopile impacts has fallen into two camps: small-scale models with individually resolved turbines looking at local effects; and large-scale analyses but with sub-grid scale turbine parameterisations. This work straddles both scales through a 3D unstructured grid model (FVCOM): wind turbine monopiles in the eastern Irish Sea are explicitly described in the grid whilst the overall grid domain covers the south-western UK shelf. Localised regions of decreased velocity extend up to 250 times the monopile diameter away from the monopile. Shelf-wide, the amplitude of the M2 tidal constituent increases by up to 7%. The turbines enhance localised vertical mixing which decreases seasonal stratification. The spatial extent of this extends well beyond the turbines into the surrounding seas. With significant expansion of OWFs on continental shelves, this work highlights the importance of how OWFs may impact coastal (e.g. increased flooding risk) and offshore (e.g. stratification and nutrient cycling) areas.

Assessing cetacean surveys throughout the Mediterranean Sea: a gap analysis in environmental space.

PubMed

Mannocci, Laura; Roberts, Jason J; Halpin, Patrick N; Authier, Matthieu; Boisseau, Oliver; Bradai, Mohamed Nejmeddine; Cañadas, Ana; Chicote, Carla; David, Léa; Di-Méglio, Nathalie; Fortuna, Caterina M; Frantzis, Alexandros; Gazo, Manel; Genov, Tilen; Hammond, Philip S; Holcer, Draško; Kaschner, Kristin; Kerem, Dani; Lauriano, Giancarlo; Lewis, Tim; Notarbartolo di Sciara, Giuseppe; Panigada, Simone; Raga, Juan Antonio; Scheinin, Aviad; Ridoux, Vincent; Vella, Adriana; Vella, Joseph

2018-02-15

Heterogeneous data collection in the marine environment has led to large gaps in our knowledge of marine species distributions. To fill these gaps, models calibrated on existing data may be used to predict species distributions in unsampled areas, given that available data are sufficiently representative. Our objective was to evaluate the feasibility of mapping cetacean densities across the entire Mediterranean Sea using models calibrated on available survey data and various environmental covariates. We aggregated 302,481 km of line transect survey effort conducted in the Mediterranean Sea within the past 20 years by many organisations. Survey coverage was highly heterogeneous geographically and seasonally: large data gaps were present in the eastern and southern Mediterranean and in non-summer months. We mapped the extent of interpolation versus extrapolation and the proportion of data nearby in environmental space when models calibrated on existing survey data were used for prediction across the entire Mediterranean Sea. Using model predictions to map cetacean densities in the eastern and southern Mediterranean, characterised by warmer, less productive waters, and more intense eddy activity, would lead to potentially unreliable extrapolations. We stress the need for systematic surveys of cetaceans in these environmentally unique Mediterranean waters, particularly in non-summer months.

Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, Julienne; Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward

2014-04-01

Since 2008, the Study of Environmental Arctic Change Sea Ice Outlook has solicited predictions of September sea-ice extent from the Arctic research community. Individuals and teams employ a variety of modeling, statistical, and heuristic approaches to make these predictions. Viewed as monthly ensembles each with one or two dozen individual predictions, they display a bimodal pattern of success. In years when observed ice extent is near its trend, the median predictions tend to be accurate. In years when the observed extent is anomalous, the median and most individual predictions are less accurate. Statistical analysis suggests that year-to-year variability, rather than methods, dominate the variation in ensemble prediction success. Furthermore, ensemble predictions do not improve as the season evolves. We consider the role of initial ice, atmosphere and ocean conditions, and summer storms and weather in contributing to the challenge of sea-ice prediction.

Application of principal component analysis (PCA) and improved joint probability distributions to the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) for predicting extreme sea states

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey C.; Sallaberry, Cédric J.; Dallman, Ann R.

Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulations as a part of the standard current practice for designing marine structures to survive extreme sea states. These environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height (H s) and either energy period (T e) or peak period (T p) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) is a standard design practice for generating environmentalmore » contours. This paper develops enhanced methodologies for data analysis prior to the application of the I-FORM, including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the variables under consideration as well as new distribution and parameter fitting techniques. As a result, these modifications better represent the measured data and, therefore, should contribute to the development of more realistic representations of environmental contours of extreme sea states for determining design loads for marine structures.« less

Application of principal component analysis (PCA) and improved joint probability distributions to the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) for predicting extreme sea states

DOE PAGES

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey C.; Sallaberry, Cédric J.; Dallman, Ann R.; ...

2016-01-06

Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulations as a part of the standard current practice for designing marine structures to survive extreme sea states. These environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height (H s) and either energy period (T e) or peak period (T p) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) is a standard design practice for generating environmentalmore » contours. This paper develops enhanced methodologies for data analysis prior to the application of the I-FORM, including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the variables under consideration as well as new distribution and parameter fitting techniques. As a result, these modifications better represent the measured data and, therefore, should contribute to the development of more realistic representations of environmental contours of extreme sea states for determining design loads for marine structures.« less

Feasibility of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for classification of sea salts.

PubMed

Tan, Man Minh; Cui, Sheng; Yoo, Jonghyun; Han, Song-Hee; Ham, Kyung-Sik; Nam, Sang-Ho; Lee, Yonghoon

2012-03-01

We have investigated the feasibility of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) as a fast, reliable classification tool for sea salts. For 11 kinds of sea salts, potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca), and aluminum (Al), concentrations were measured by inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES), and the LIBS spectra were recorded in the narrow wavelength region between 760 and 800 nm where K (I), Mg (I), Ca (II), Al (I), and cyanide (CN) band emissions are observed. The ICP-AES measurements revealed that the K, Mg, Ca, and Al concentrations varied significantly with the provenance of each salt. The relative intensities of the K (I), Mg (I), Ca (II), and Al (I) peaks observed in the LIBS spectra are consistent with the results using ICP-AES. The principal component analysis of the LIBS spectra provided the score plot with quite a high degree of clustering. This indicates that classification of sea salts by chemometric analysis of LIBS spectra is very promising. Classification models were developed by partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and evaluated. In addition, the Al (I) peaks enabled us to discriminate between different production methods of the salts. © 2012 Society for Applied Spectroscopy

Operationally Monitoring Sea Ice at the Canadian Ice Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Abreu, R.; Flett, D.; Carrieres, T.; Falkingham, J.

2004-05-01

The Canadian Ice Service (CIS) of the Meteorological Service of Canada promotes safe and efficient maritime operations and protects Canada's environment by providing reliable and timely information about ice and iceberg conditions in Canadian waters. Daily and seasonal charts describing the extent, type and concentration of sea ice and icebergs are provided to support navigation and other activities (e.g. oil and gas) in coastal waters. The CIS relies on a suite of spaceborne visible, infrared and microwave sensors to operationally monitor ice conditions in Canadian coastal and inland waterways. These efforts are complemented by operational sea ice models that are customized and run at the CIS. The archive of these data represent a 35 year archive of ice conditions and have proven to be a valuable dataset for historical sea ice analysis. This presentation will describe the daily integration of remote sensing observations and modelled ice conditions used to produce ice and iceberg products. A review of the decadal evolution of this process will be presented, as well as a glimpse into the future of ice and iceberg monitoring. Examples of the utility of the CIS digital sea ice archive for climate studies will also be presented.

Relative sea-level rise around East Antarctica during Oligocene glaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocchi, Paolo; Escutia, Carlota; Houben, Alexander J. P.; Vermeersen, Bert L. A.; Bijl, Peter K.; Brinkhuis, Henk; Deconto, Robert M.; Galeotti, Simone; Passchier, Sandra; Pollard, David; Brinkhuis, Henk; Escutia, Carlota; Klaus, Adam; Fehr, Annick; Williams, Trevor; Bendle, James A. P.; Bijl, Peter K.; Bohaty, Steven M.; Carr, Stephanie A.; Dunbar, Robert B.; Flores, Jose Abel; Gonzàlez, Jhon J.; Hayden, Travis G.; Iwai, Masao; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Katsuki, Kota; Kong, Gee Soo; McKay, Robert M.; Nakai, Mutsumi; Olney, Matthew P.; Passchier, Sandra; Pekar, Stephen F.; Pross, Jörg; Riesselman, Christina; Röhl, Ursula; Sakai, Toyosaburo; Shrivastava, Prakash Kumar; Stickley, Catherine E.; Sugisaki, Saiko; Tauxe, Lisa; Tuo, Shouting; van de Flierdt, Tina; Welsh, Kevin; Yamane, Masako

2013-05-01

During the middle and late Eocene (~ 48-34Myr ago), the Earth's climate cooled and an ice sheet built up on Antarctica. The stepwise expansion of ice on Antarctica induced crustal deformation and gravitational perturbations around the continent. Close to the ice sheet, sea level rose despite an overall reduction in the mass of the ocean caused by the transfer of water to the ice sheet. Here we identify the crustal response to ice-sheet growth by forcing a glacial-hydro isostatic adjustment model with an Antarctic ice-sheet model. We find that the shelf areas around East Antarctica first shoaled as upper mantle material upwelled and a peripheral forebulge developed. The inner shelf subsequently subsided as lithosphere flexure extended outwards from the ice-sheet margins. Consequently the coasts experienced a progressive relative sea-level rise. Our analysis of sediment cores from the vicinity of the Antarctic ice sheet are in agreement with the spatial patterns of relative sea-level change indicated by our simulations. Our results are consistent with the suggestion that near-field processes such as local sea-level change influence the equilibrium state obtained by an ice-sheet grounding line.

Wave energy analysis based on simulation wave data in the China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Zhan-sheng; Qian, Yu-hao; Sui, Yu-wei; Chen, Xuan; Zhang, Da

2018-05-01

In the current world, where human beings are severely plagued by environmental problems and energy crisis, the full and reasonable utilization of marine new energy resources will contribute to alleviating the energy crisis, contributing to global energy-saving, emission reduction and environmental protection, thus to promote sustainable development. In this study, we firstly simulated a 10-year (1991-2000) 6-hourly wave data of the China Sea, by using the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model nested with WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model forced with Cross-Calibrated, Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind data. Considering the value size and stability of the wave energy density, we analyzed the overall characteristics of the China Sea wave energy with using the simulation wave data. Results show that: (1) The wave energy density in January and October is distinctly higher than that in April and July. The large center of annual average Wave energy density is located in the north of the South China Sea (of about 12-16 kW/m). (2) Synthetically considering the value size and stability of the wave energy density and stability, the energy-rich area is found to be located in the north region of the South China Sea.

Decadal sea level variability in the East China Sea linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Jae-Hong; Song, Y. Tony

2017-07-01

In view of coastal community's need for adapting to sea level rise (SLR), understanding and predicting regional variability on decadal to longer time scales still remain a challenging issue in SLR research. Here, we have examined the low-frequency sea level signals in the East China Sea (ECS) from the 50-year hindcast of a non-Boussinesq ocean model in comparison with data sets from altimeters, tide-gauges, and steric sea level produced by in-situ profiles. It is shown that the mean sea levels in the ECS represent significant decadal fluctuations over the past 50 years, with a multi-decadal trend shift since the mid-1980s compared to the preceding 30 years. The decadal fluctuations in sea level are more closely linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflects the multi-decadal trend shift. A composite analysis indicates that wind patterns associated with the NPGO is shown to control the decadal variability of the western subtropical North Pacific. A positive NPGO corresponds to cyclonic wind stress curl anomaly in the western subtropical regions that results in a higher sea level in the ECS, particularly along the continental shelf, and lower sea levels off the ECS. The reverse occurs in years of negative NPGO.

Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice.

PubMed

Li, Xichen; Holland, David M; Gerber, Edwin P; Yoo, Changhyun

2014-01-23

In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

Inter-annual variability of exchange processes at the outer Black Sea shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shapiro, Georgy; Wobus, Fred; Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Zheng

2014-05-01

The advection of cold water below the surface mixed layer has a significant role in shaping the properties of the Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL) in the Black Sea, and thus the horizontal redistribution of nutrients. The minimal temperature of the CIL in the southwest deep region of the sea in summer was shown to be lower than the winter surface temperature at the same location, indicating the horizontal advective nature of CIL formation in the area (Kolesnikov, 1953). In addition to advection in the deep area of the sea, the transport of cold waters from the northwest Black Sea shelf across the shelf break in winter was shown to contribute to the formation of the CIL (Filippov, 1968; Staneva and Stanev, 1997). However less is known of the exchanges between the CIL waters and the outer shelf areas in summer, when a surface mixed layer and the underlying seasonal thermocline are formed. Ivanov et al. (1997) suggested that the cross frontal exchange within the CIL is strongly inhibited, so that CIL waters formed in the deep sea (i.e. offshore of the Rim Current) do not replenish the CIL waters onshore of the Rim Current (also known as near-bottom shelf waters, or BSW), due to strong cross frontal gradients in potential vorticity (PV). To the contrary, Shapiro et al. (2011) analysed in-situ observations over the period of 1950-2001 and showed a high correlation between the CIL temperatures in the open sea and outer shelf. However, the statistical methods alone were not able to clearly establish the relation between the cause and the consequences. In this study we use a 3D numerical model of the Black Sea (NEMO-SHELF-BLS) to quantify the exchange of CIL waters between the open sea and the outer northwest Black Sea shelf and to assess its significance for the replenishment of BSW on the outer shelf. The model has a resolution of 1/16º latitude × 1/12º longitude and 33 levels in the vertical. In order to represent near-bottom processes better, the model uses a hybrid vertical discretisation (s-on-top-of-z) and other improved parameters of the model set-up as in Shapiro et al. (2013). The model was run for the period from 1979 to 2012 with water discharges from 8 main rivers, exchanges through Bosporus and meteo forcing from the Drakkar Forcing Set 5.2 (Brodeau et al, 2010). The model was spun-up from climatological temperature and salinity in January using a semi-diagnostic adjustment method. Each annual simulation started from the same initial state on 1 January without data assimilation. The data for the warm period from 1 May to 31 October of each year were used for the following analysis. The model has been validated against in-situ (based on 77867 stations) and night-time satellite monthly mean SST observations. The model also captures well the major features seen on snapshot satellite images. A simulated daily climatology was created by averaging the temperature values over the 34-year simulation. Anomalies were calculated as the deviations of the snapshot temperatures from their climatological values. The correlation between the temperature anomalies of BSW on the outer shelf and those in the CIL waters in the deep sea were computed as well as water transports between these water masses across the shelf break. The BSW on the outer shelf are defined as the waters between the density level σθ=14.2 kg m3 (i.e. the bottom of the surface mixed layer) and the seabed (max z=150 m at the shelf break). The corresponding data from open sea CIL waters in the northwest part of the deep Black Sea were taken from the depth range between σθ=14.2 and z=150 m. The computed Pierson correlation between summer temperatures of BSW and the deep sea CIL is R = 0.90. This significant correlation is in agreement with the analysis from observational data of Shapiro et al. (2011). In order to reveal a physical link between the BSW and CIL, the in-out transports of water with σθ ≥14.2 across the shelf break were computed for each day and then averaged over the warm periods of each year. Over the 34 year time span, the on-shelf and off-shelf transports between the CIL and BSW fluctuate in the range of 0.22 to 0.45 Sv, with the maximum values in 1996 and the minimum in 1990. The net cross-shelf transport is small, approximately 0.03 Sv, due to volume conservation, and is directed off-shore due to river discharges. The years with high values of transport correspond to the situation when a 'channel' of constant PV connecting the BSW and CIL exists, forming a conduit for the waters to move across the shelf break. In the years of reduced transport, there was a PV 'barrier', i.e. a band of significant PV gradient along the shelf break, which inhibits exchanges. The efficiency of the exchange can be represented by the average renewal time of BSW, which is defined as the ratio of BSW volume to the onshore transport. This value, as well as the volumes and the transports vary over the 34 years. The renewal time is within the range between 18 to 42 days. The short renewal time (31 days on average) compared to the seasonal time scales, suggests an efficient exchange between bottom waters on the outer shelf and the CIL in the deep sea during the warm season. This study was partially supported by the EU (via PERSEUS grant FP7-OCEAN-2011-287600 and MyOcean SPA.2011.1.5-01 grant 283367), Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of Plymouth Marine Institute Innovation Fund. References Brodeau L., B. Barnier, A.-M. Treguier, T.Penduff, S.Gulev, 2010. An ERA40-based atmospheric forcing for global ocean circulation models, Ocean Modelling, 31 (3-4), 88-104. Kolesnikov, A.G., 1953. Intra-annual variability of temperature, stability and vertical turbulent exchange of heat in the open area of the Black Sea. In: Proceedings of the Marine Hydrophysical Institute, issue 3. Filippov D.M., 1968. Water Circulation and Structure of the Black Sea. Nauka, Moscow, 136 pp. Ivanov, L. I., Besiktepe, S. and E. Özsoy, 1997. The Black Sea Cold Intermediate Layer, in: Özsoy, E. and A. Mikaelyan (editors), Sensitivity to Change: Black Sea, Baltic Sea and North Sea, NATO ASI Series (Partnership Sub-series, Environment, 27), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 536 pp. Shapiro, G.I., F. Wobus, D.L. Aleynik, 2011. Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the western Black Sea shelf, Ocean Science 7, 585-596. Shapiro, G., Luneva, M., Pickering, J., and Storkey, D., 2013. The effect of various vertical discretization schemes and horizontal diffusion parameterization on the performance of a 3-D ocean model: the Black Sea case study, Ocean Science, 9, 377-390. Staneva, J. V. and E. V. Stanev, 1997. Cold water mass formation in the Black Sea. Analysis on numerical model simulations. In: E. Ozsoy and A. Mikaelyan (eds.), Sensitivity to change: Black Sea, Baltic Sea and North Sea. NATO ASI Series, Vol. 27, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 375-393.

Atmospheric forcing and Sea Surface Temperature response in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran Sea system in a 20 years simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutov, D.; Peliz, A.

2012-04-01

In the frame of MedEX ("Inter-basin exchange in the changing Mediterranean Sea") Project a 20 years (1989-2008) simulation at 2km resolution covering Gulf of Cadiz and Alboran Sea, forced by 9 km winds (WRF downscaling of ERA-Interim reanalysis), is analyzed and compared with observations. Statistical methods, EOF techniques and two harmonic (including annual and semi-annual frequencies) data fit were performed for the analysis. Modeled SST fields are also compared with long-term (1996-2008) in-situ buoy observations provided by Puertos del Estado (Spain) and satellite derived Pathfinder SST database. Model SSTs generally follow observations data at annual and inter-annual scales with a global error not exceeding 0.17°C (model warmer than SST). No significant warming tendency was observed in both basins during the 20 years and the Interanual variability dominates, with the series showing a cooling period from 1991 to 1993 followed by a warming period started from 1994. In particular we show that SST cooling observed in the early 1990's in the Gulf of Cadiz - Alboran system is associated with the 1991 catastrophic eruption of Pinatubo volcano (Philippines).

Prolonged effect of the stratospheric pathway in linking Barents-Kara Sea sea ice variability to the midlatitude circulation in a simplified model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Yutian; Smith, Karen L.

2018-01-01

To better understand the dynamical mechanism that accounts for the observed lead-lag correlation between the early winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice variability and the later winter midlatitude circulation response, a series of experiments are conducted using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model with a prescribed idealized near-surface heating over the BKS. A prolonged effect is found in the idealized experiments following the near-surface heating and can be explicitly attributed to the stratospheric pathway and the long time scale in the stratosphere. The analysis of the Eliassen-Palm flux shows that, as a result of the imposed heating and linear constructive interference, anomalous upward propagating planetary-scale waves are excited and weaken the stratospheric polar vortex. This stratospheric response persists for approximately 1-2 months accompanied by downward migration to the troposphere and the surface. This downward migration largely amplifies and extends the low-level jet deceleration in the midlatitudes and cold air advection over central Asia. The idealized model experiments also suggest that the BKS region is the most effective in affecting the midlatitude circulation than other regions over the Arctic.

Glacier calving, dynamics, and sea-level rise. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meier, M.F.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Amadei, B.

1998-08-01

The present-day calving flux from Greenland and Antarctica is poorly known, and this accounts for a significant portion of the uncertainty in the current mass balance of these ice sheets. Similarly, the lack of knowledge about the role of calving in glacier dynamics constitutes a major uncertainty in predicting the response of glaciers and ice sheets to changes in climate and thus sea level. Another fundamental problem has to do with incomplete knowledge of glacier areas and volumes, needed for analyses of sea-level change due to changing climate. The authors proposed to develop an improved ability to predict the futuremore » contributions of glaciers to sea level by combining work from four research areas: remote sensing observations of calving activity and iceberg flux, numerical modeling of glacier dynamics, theoretical analysis of the calving process, and numerical techniques for modeling flow with large deformations and fracture. These four areas have never been combined into a single research effort on this subject; in particular, calving dynamics have never before been included explicitly in a model of glacier dynamics. A crucial issue that they proposed to address was the general question of how calving dynamics and glacier flow dynamics interact.« less

Competition influence in the segregation of the trophic niche of otariids: a case study using isotopic Bayesian mixing models in Galapagos pinnipeds.

PubMed

Páez-Rosas, Diego; Rodríguez-Pérez, Mónica; Riofrío-Lazo, Marjorie

2014-12-15

The feeding success of predators is associated with the competition level for resources, and, thus, sympatric species are exposed to a potential trophic overlap. Isotopic Bayesian mixing models should provide a better understanding of the contribution of preys to the diet of predators and the feeding behavior of a species over time. The carbon and nitrogen isotopic signatures from pup hair samples of 93 Galapagos sea lions and 48 Galapagos fur seals collected between 2003 and 2009 in different regions (east and west) of the archipelago were analyzed. A PDZ Europa ANCA-GSL elemental analyzer interfaced with a PDZ Europa 20-20 continuous flow gas source mass spectrometer was employed. Bayesian models, SIAR and SIBER, were used to estimate the contribution of prey to the diet of predators, the niche breadth, and the trophic overlap level between the populations. Statistical differences in the isotopic values of both predators were observed over the time. The mixing model determined that Galapagos fur seals had a primarily teutophagous diet, whereas the Galapagos sea lions fed exclusively on fish in both regions of the archipelago. The SIBER analysis showed differences in the trophic niche between the two sea lion populations, with the western rookery of the Galapagos sea lion being the population with the largest trophic niche area. A trophic niche partitioning between Galapagos fur seals and Galapagos sea lions in the west of the archipelago is suggested by our results. At intraspecific level, the western population of the Galapagos sea lion (ZwW) showed higher trophic breadth than the eastern population, a strategy adopted by the ZwW to decrease the interspecific competition levels in the western region. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating areas threatened by contamination from leaking chemical warfare agents dumped into the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakacki, Jaromir; Przyborska, Anna; Andrzejewski, Jan

2017-04-01

Approximately 60,000 tons of chemical munitions were dumped into the Baltic Sea after World War II (the exact amount is unknown and some sources estimate it as more than 200,000 tons). Dumped munitions still pose a risk of leakage caused by erosion and corrosion, and it is important to know the danger areas. Because of wide dispersion of the dumped munitions, modelling is only one tool that could provide wide image of physical state of the sea at all locations and which could also be used for analysing contamination during a potential leakage. Obviously, it is possible to take samples at each dumpsite, but modelling also allows to develop possible scenarios of leakages under specific physical conditions. For the purpose of analysis of potential leakage a high-resolution model (HRM) of the contamination will be embedded in the hydrodynamic model (HM) of the Baltic Sea. The HRM will use data from general circulation model results of estimated resolution of nearly 2 km. The Parallel Ocean Program will be implemented as the HM for the whole Baltic Sea. Atmospheric data from regional implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting System (WRF) have been used as the top boundary conditions of the HM, and sea level data from Gothenburg had been included into model barotropic equation as lateral boundary conditions. Passive tracer will represent the contamination in the HRM and horizontal resolution of the HRM will be close to 50 meters. Passive tracers will also be implemented in the HM - for comparison of the results. For proper representation of potential leakage of chemical warfare agents the HRM will have included diffusion and advection processes. The results from the HM are going to be interpolated into the HRM domain and then integration will be performed. Based on the implemented simulations, estimated contaminated area and its comparison from the HRM as well as from the HM will be presented. The research work was fund by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) under the Interreg Baltic Sea Region Programme 2014-2020, project #R013 DAIMON (Decision Aid for Marine Munitions).

Post-glacial sea-level history for NE Ireland (Belfast Lough) based on offshore evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, R.; Plets, R. M.; Callard, L.; Cooper, A.; Long, A. J.; Belknap, D. F.; Edwards, R.; Jackson, D.; Kelley, J. T.; Long, D.; Milne, G. A.; Monteys, X.

2013-12-01

Glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) models suggest a complex relative sea-level (RSL) pattern around the Irish Sea Basin after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with modelled sea-level lowstands ranging from -12 m in the north to greater than -60 m in the south of the Basin. However, these GIA models are poorly constrained by observational data offshore. Belfast Lough, on the NE coast of Ireland, is one of seven sites chosen to investigate this complex RSL history as part of the project ';Late Glacial Sea level minima in the Western British Isles' (NERC NE/H024301/1). Belfast Lough was chosen as one of the candidate sites on the basis of location (at the northern end of the Irish Sea Basin), sedimentary environment (grossly depositional) and the fact that the lowstand predicted for the Belfast Lough area by a recent version of the GIA model (-16.5 m) differs significantly from the (limited) extant observational data, which interprets the lowstand at -30 m. In 2011 and 2012 we gathered new multi-beam echo-sounder data, >200 km trackline pinger- and boomer- seismic reflection data and 46 vibrocores in Belfast Lough. Radiocarbon dating and palaeoenvironmental analysis are used to constrain the interpretation of the seismic and sediment data. Five seismo-stratigraphic units are interpreted, with a distinct erosional surface between U3 and U4 interpreted as a transgressive surface associated with sea level rise post-dating a RSL lowstand. Foraminiferal evidence indicates an increase in marine species (from lagoonal/estuarine to fully marine) from U4 to U5. Integration of the seismic and core data indicate an erosional event prior to 12.7 cal yr BP resulting in a planated surface in the inner Lough and wave-eroded drumlins at the mouth of the Lough between -15 and -22 m, interpreted as a possible slowstand. On the basis of seismic evidence in the outer Lough, an as yet undated lowstand at -42 m is tentatively interpreted to pre-date this stillstand. These results will be used to tune the Earth and ice model parameters in a new run of the GIA model.

Post-glacial sea-level history for NE Ireland (Belfast Lough) based on offshore evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Rory; Plets, Ruth; Callard, Louise; Cooper, Andrew; Antony, Long; Daniel, Belknap; Robin, Edwards; Derek, Jackson; Joseph, Kelley; David, Long; Glenn, Milne; Xavier, Monteys

2014-05-01

Glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) models suggest a complex relative sea-level (RSL) pattern around the Irish Sea Basin after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with modelled sea-level lowstands ranging from -12 m in the north to greater than -60 m in the south of the Basin. However, these GIA models are poorly constrained by observational data offshore. Belfast Lough, on the NE coast of Ireland, is one of seven sites chosen to investigate this complex RSL history as part of the project 'Late Glacial Sea level minima in the Western British Isles' (NERC NE/H024301/1). Belfast Lough was chosen as one of the candidate sites on the basis of location (at the northern end of the Irish Sea Basin), sedimentary environment (grossly depositional) and the fact that the lowstand predicted for the Belfast Lough area by a recent version of the GIA model (-16.5 m) differs significantly from the (limited) extant observational data, which interprets the lowstand at -30 m. In 2011 and 2012 we gathered new multi-beam echo-sounder data, >200 km trackline pinger- and boomer- seismic reflection data and 46 vibrocores in Belfast Lough. Radiocarbon dating and palaeoenvironmental analysis are used to constrain the interpretation of the seismic and sediment data. Five seismo-stratigraphic units are interpreted, with a distinct erosional surface between U3 and U4 interpreted as a transgressive surface associated with sea level rise post-dating a RSL lowstand. Foraminiferal evidence indicates an increase in marine species (from lagoonal/estuarine to fully marine) from U4 to U5. Integration of the seismic and core data indicate an erosional event prior to 12.7 cal yr BP resulting in a planated surface in the inner Lough and wave-eroded drumlins at the mouth of the Lough between -15 and -22 m, interpreted as a possible slowstand. On the basis of seismic evidence in the outer Lough, an as yet undated lowstand at -42 m is tentatively interpreted to pre-date this stillstand. These results will be used to tune the Earth and ice model parameters in a new run of the GIA model.

An interhemispheric tropical sea level seesaw due to El Niño Taimasa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widlansky, M. J.; Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.; Stuecker, M. F.; Cai, W.

2013-12-01

During strong El Niño events, sea level drops around some tropical western Pacific islands by up to 20-30 cm. Such extreme events (referred to as ';taimasa' in Samoa) expose shallow reefs, thereby damaging associated coastal ecosystems and contributing to the formation of ';flat topped coral heads' often referred to as microatolls. We show that during the termination of strong El Niño events, a southward movement of weak trade winds and development of an anomalous anticyclone in the Philippine Sea force an interhemispheric sea level seesaw in the tropical Pacific which enhances and prolongs extreme low sea levels in the southwestern Pacific. Spectral features, in addition to wind forced linear shallow water ocean model experiments, identify an interaction between El Niño and the annual cycle as the main cause of these sea level anomalies. Given the well established seasonal prediction skill for El Niño events and their seasonally paced termination, our analysis suggests that long-duration extreme sea level drops may also be highly predictable.

Calibration of sea ice dynamic parameters in an ocean-sea ice model using an ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massonnet, F.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Counillon, F.

2014-07-01

The choice of parameter values is crucial in the course of sea ice model development, since parameters largely affect the modeled mean sea ice state. Manual tuning of parameters will soon become impractical, as sea ice models will likely include more parameters to calibrate, leading to an exponential increase of the number of possible combinations to test. Objective and automatic methods for parameter calibration are thus progressively called on to replace the traditional heuristic, "trial-and-error" recipes. Here a method for calibration of parameters based on the ensemble Kalman filter is implemented, tested and validated in the ocean-sea ice model NEMO-LIM3. Three dynamic parameters are calibrated: the ice strength parameter P*, the ocean-sea ice drag parameter Cw, and the atmosphere-sea ice drag parameter Ca. In twin, perfect-model experiments, the default parameter values are retrieved within 1 year of simulation. Using 2007-2012 real sea ice drift data, the calibration of the ice strength parameter P* and the oceanic drag parameter Cw improves clearly the Arctic sea ice drift properties. It is found that the estimation of the atmospheric drag Ca is not necessary if P* and Cw are already estimated. The large reduction in the sea ice speed bias with calibrated parameters comes with a slight overestimation of the winter sea ice areal export through Fram Strait and a slight improvement in the sea ice thickness distribution. Overall, the estimation of parameters with the ensemble Kalman filter represents an encouraging alternative to manual tuning for ocean-sea ice models.

[Results of the NASA/University Joint Venture (JOVE) Program at the University of Vermont

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Jun

1996-01-01

Sea ice parameters in the north and south polar regions are important components of the global climate system. Current air-sea-ice models do not take into account oscillatory behavior in the ice covers other than for the seasonal cycle, since the relative importance of such oscillations is not known. An analysis of oscillatory behavior then becomes important from the standpoints of determining the significance of the various oscillatory components and perhaps discovery of some new aspects of the air-sea-ice interaction processes. One of these components, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to be associated with weather changes on a global scale. Indeed, its spectral components have also been observed in the sea ice distribution in both hemispheres.

Regional scale albedo of first year Arctic drift ice during summer melt estimated from synthesis of in situ measurements and airborne imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divine, Dmitry; Granskog, Mats A.; Hudson, Stephen R.; Pedersen, Christina A.; Karlsen, Tor I.; Gerland, Sebastian

2014-05-01

The paper presents the results of analysis of the radiative properties of first year sea ice in advanced stages of melt. The presented technique is based on the upscaling in situ point measurements of surface albedo to the regional (150 km) spatial scale using aerial photographs of sea ice captured by a helicopter borne camera setup. The sea ice imagery as well as in situ snow and ice data were collected during the eight day ICE12 drift experiment carried out by the Norwegian Polar Institute in the Arctic north of Svalbard at 83.5 N during 27 July-03 August 2012. In total some 100 ground albedo measurements were made on melting sea ice in locations representative of the four main types of sea ice surface identified using the discriminant analysis -based classification technique. Some 11000 images from a total of six ice survey flights adding up to some 770 km of flight tracks covering about 28 km2 of sea ice surface were classified to yield the along-track distributions of four major surface classes: bare ice, dark melt ponds, bright melt ponds and open water. Results demonstrated a relative homogeneity of sea ice cover in the study area allowing for upscaling the local optical measurements to the regional scale. For the typical 10% open water fraction and 25% melt pond coverage, with a ratio of dark to bright ponds of 2 identified from selected images, the aggregate scale surface albedo of the area was estimated to be 0.42(0.40;0.44). The confidence intervals on the estimate were derived using the moving block bootstrap approach applied to the sequences of classified sea ice images and albedo of the four surface classes treated as random variables. Uncertainty in the mean estimates of local albedo from in situ measurements contributed some 65% to the variance of the estimated regional albedo with the remaining variance to be associated with the spatial inhomogeneity of sea ice cover. The results of the study are of relevance for the modeling of sea ice processes in climate simulations. It particularly concerns the period of summer melt when the optical properties of sea ice undergo substantial changes which the existing sea ice models experience most difficulties to accurately reproduce. That phase of a season is especially crucial for climate and ecosystem processes in the polar regions.

Extreme Storm Surges in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goennert, G.; Buß, Th.; Mueller, O.; Thumm, S.

2009-04-01

Extreme Storm Surges in the North Sea Gabriele Gönnert, Olaf Müller, Thomas Buß and Sigrid Thumm Climate Change will cause a rise of the sea level and probably more frequent and more violent storm surges. This has serious consequences for the safety of people as well as for their values and assets behind the dikes. It is therefore inevitable to first assess how sea level rise and an extreme storm surge event designes. In a second step it is possible to determine the risk for specific locations and develop strategies. The Project XtremRisk - Extreme Storm Surges at the North Sea Coast and in Estuaries. Risk calculation and risk strategies, funded by the German Federal Government will help answering these questions. The „Source-Pathway-Receptor" Concept will be used as a basis for risk analysis and development of new strategies. The Project offers methods to assess the development of extreme events under the conditions of today. Under conditions reflecting the climate change it will be tried to design an extreme event. For these three main points will be considered: a) Analysis and calculation of each factor, which produce a storm surge and its maximum level occurring in the last 100 years. These are: - maximum surge level: surge (due to the wind), - influence of the tide and the interaction between surge and tide, - influence of external surges , b) The hydrodynamics of a storm surge cause nonlinear effects in the interaction of the named factors. These factors and effects will both be taken into account to calculate the magnitude of the extreme storm surge. This step is very complex and need additional examination by numerical models. c) Analysis of the different scenarios to mean sea level rise and to the increase of wind speed due to the climate change. The presentation will introduce methods and show first results of the analysis of extreme events and the mean sea level rise.

Long-period sea-level variations in the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerbini, Susanna; Raicich, Fabio; Bruni, Sara; del Conte, Sara; Errico, Maddalena; Prati, Claudio; Santi, Efisio

2016-04-01

Since the beginning of its long-lasting lifetime, the Wegener initiative has devoted careful consideration to studying sea-level variations/changes across the Mediterranean Sea. Our study focuses on several long-period sea-level time series (from end of 1800 to 2012) acquired in the Mediterranean by tide gauge stations. In general, the analysis and interpretation of these data sets can provide an important contribution to research on climate change and its impacts. We have analyzed the centennial sea-level time series of six fairly well documented tide gauges. They are: Marseille, in France, Alicante in Spain, Genoa, Trieste, Venice and Marina di Ravenna (formerly Porto Corsini), in Italy. The data of the Italian stations of Marina di Ravenna and Venice clearly indicate that land subsidence is responsible for most of the observed rate of relative sea level rise. It is well known that, in the two areas, subsidence is caused by both natural processes and human activities. For these two stations, using levelling data of benchmarks at, and/or close to, the tide gauges, and for the recent years, also GPS and InSAR height time series, modelling of the long-period non-linear behavior of subsidence was successfully accomplished. After removing the land vertical motions, the estimate of the linear long-period sea-level rise at all six stations yielded remarkably consistent values, between +1,2 and +1,3 mm/yr, with associated errors ranging from ±0,2 to ±0,3 mm/yr (95% confidence interval), which also account for the statistical autocorrelation of the time series. These trends in the Mediterranean area are lower than the global mean rate of 1,7±0,2 mm/yr (1901-2010) presented by the IPCC in its 5th Assessment Report; however, they are in full agreement with a global mean sea-level rise estimate, over the period 1901-1990, recently published by Hay et al. (2015, doi:10.1038/nature14093) and obtained using probabilistic techniques that combine sea-level records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the contributing processes. An EOF analysis (Empirical Orthogonal Functions) has also been carried out on the six sea-level time series to identify the dominant modes of variability.

New Tools for Sea Ice Data Analysis and Visualization: NSIDC's Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vizcarra, N.; Stroeve, J.; Beam, K.; Beitler, J.; Brandt, M.; Kovarik, J.; Savoie, M. H.; Skaug, M.; Stafford, T.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice has long been recognized as a sensitive climate indicator and has undergone a dramatic decline over the past thirty years. Antarctic sea ice continues to be an intriguing and active field of research. The National Snow and Ice Data Center's Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis (ASINA) offers researchers and the public a transparent view of sea ice data and analysis. We have released a new set of tools for sea ice analysis and visualization. In addition to Charctic, our interactive sea ice extent graph, the new Sea Ice Data and Analysis Tools page provides access to Arctic and Antarctic sea ice data organized in seven different data workbooks, updated daily or monthly. An interactive tool lets scientists, or the public, quickly compare changes in ice extent and location. Another tool allows users to map trends, anomalies, and means for user-defined time periods. Animations of September Arctic and Antarctic monthly average sea ice extent and concentration may also be accessed from this page. Our tools help the NSIDC scientists monitor and understand sea ice conditions in near real time. They also allow the public to easily interact with and explore sea ice data. Technical innovations in our data center helped NSIDC quickly build these tools and more easily maintain them. The tools were made publicly accessible to meet the desire from the public and members of the media to access the numbers and calculations that power our visualizations and analysis. This poster explores these tools and how other researchers, the media, and the general public are using them.

Storm surges in the White and Barents Seas: formation, statistics, analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korablina, Anastasia; Arkhipkin, Victor

2017-04-01

Arctic seas storm surges investigation are high priority in Russia due to the active development of offshore oil and gas, construction of facilities in the coastal zone, as well as for the navigation safety. It is important to study the surges variability, to predict this phenomena and subsequent economic losses, thus including such information into the Russian Arctic Development Program 2020. White and Barents Seas storm surges are caused mainly by deep cyclones of two types: "diving" from the north (88% of all cyclones) and Atlantic from the west. The surge height was defined as the excess of the level that was obtained as the difference between the observed level and subtracting tide level and low-frequency level. The period of low-frequency level oscillation was determined by spectral analysis of the in-situ data. ADCIRC model is used for calculating the storm surge height. We did the calculations on unstructured grid with variable step from 50 to 5000 m. The ADCIRC model was based on the data on wind field, the sea level pressure, the concentration of ice reanalysis CFSR (1979-2010) in increments 0.3°, CFSv2 (2011-2015) in increments 0.2°. On the boundary conditions harmonic constants from Finite Element Solution tide model 2004 (FES2004) in increments 1/8° were set. The following stations on the coast Varandey, Pechora Bay, Chosha Bay, Severodvinsk, Onega, Solovki and other were selected for the storm surges statistical analysis in the period 1979-2015. The number of storm surges (> 0.3 m) long-term variability was obtained, the number of surges at a height (m) range (0.3-0.6, 0.6-0.9, 0.9-1.2, >1.2) was estimated. It shows that 1980 and 1998 are the years with the fewest number storms. For example, the largest number of storm surge (53) was observed in 1995 in Varandey. The height of the surge, possible only once in 100 years, is counted. This maximum height (m) of the surge was noted in Varandey (4.1), Chosha Bay (3.4), Barents Sea, Onega Bay (2.4), White Sea. Quantitative assessment of the pressure and wind contributing to the surge formation was made. The analysis has shown that the wind has a larger contribution (90%) to surge formation in the study area. The study was performed in the framework of the Russian Science Foundation (project 14-37-00038).

Spectral analysis of magnetic anomalies in and around the Philippine Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, A.; Ishihara, T.

2009-12-01

Regional compilations of lithospheric structure from various methods and data and comparison among them are useful to understand lithospheric structure and the processes behind its formation and evolution. We present constraints on the regional variations of the magnetic thicknesses in and around the Philippine Sea. We used a new global magnetic anomaly data [Quesnel et al, 2009], which is CM4-corrected [Comprehensive Model 4; Sabaka et al., 2004], cleaned and leveled to clarify the three-dimensional crustal magnetic structure of the Philippine Sea. The Philippine Sea is one of the largest marginal seas of the world. The north-south-trending Kyushu-Palau Ridge divides it into two parts: the West Philippine Basin and the Daito Ridge province in the west and the Shikoku and Parece Vela Basins in the east. The age of the basins increases westward [Karig, 1971]. And, there are three ridges in the Daito Ridge province west of the Kyushu-Palau Ridge; the Oki-Daito, Daito Ridges and the Amami Plateau from south to north, and small basins among them. Two-dimensional spectral analysis of marine magnetic anomalies is used to estimate the centroid of magnetic sources (Zo) to constrain the lithospheric structure [Tanaka and Ishihara, 2008]. The method is based on that of Spector and Grant [1970]. Zo distribution of the Philippine Sea shows occurrence of shallow magnetic layer areas with approximately less than 10 km in the Shikoku Basin. It also shows variations in deep and shallow magnetic layer areas in the Amami-Daito Province. These patters correspond to spatial variations of the crustal thickness deduced from the three-dimensional gravity modeling [Ishihara and Koda, 2007] and acoustic basement structures [Higuchi et al., 2007]. These three spatial distributions are roughly consistent with each other, although they may contain some scatters and bias due to the different characteristics and errors. This two-dimensional spectral analysis method is based upon an assumption that source distribution is random; therefore when magnetic anomalies represent linear features, this analysis based on ensembles of thin prisms may produce unreliable results. In this case, one-dimensional spectrum analysis based on a thin plate model composed of long bars is preferable. Makino and Okubo [1988] developed one-dimensional spectral analysis for marine linear magnetic anomalies. A linear relationship between the natural log of (power-density spectrum of magnetic profile) and wavelength gives the centroid depth of magnetic sources. The same method is applied to this area. This analysis requires a long profile to see deeper structure. It may not be possible to find good enough data. However, both methods give consistent results, and the obtained Zo distribution provides a comprehensive view of regional-scale features. The correlation between crustal thickness and Zo and its correspondence with tectonic regime indicates that Zo is useful to delineate regional crustal thermal structure. It is expected that Zo combined with multidisciplinary data should help to infer geophysical and geological information in the less explored regions.

Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabatel, Matthias; Rampal, Pierre; Carrassi, Alberto; Bertino, Laurent; Jones, Christopher K. R. T.

2018-03-01

We present a sensitivity analysis and discuss the probabilistic forecast capabilities of the novel sea ice model neXtSIM used in hindcast mode. The study pertains to the response of the model to the uncertainty on winds using probabilistic forecasts of ice trajectories. neXtSIM is a continuous Lagrangian numerical model that uses an elasto-brittle rheology to simulate the ice response to external forces. The sensitivity analysis is based on a Monte Carlo sampling of 12 members. The response of the model to the uncertainties is evaluated in terms of simulated ice drift distances from their initial positions, and from the mean position of the ensemble, over the mid-term forecast horizon of 10 days. The simulated ice drift is decomposed into advective and diffusive parts that are characterised separately both spatially and temporally and compared to what is obtained with a free-drift model, that is, when the ice rheology does not play any role in the modelled physics of the ice. The seasonal variability of the model sensitivity is presented and shows the role of the ice compactness and rheology in the ice drift response at both local and regional scales in the Arctic. Indeed, the ice drift simulated by neXtSIM in summer is close to the one obtained with the free-drift model, while the more compact and solid ice pack shows a significantly different mechanical and drift behaviour in winter. For the winter period analysed in this study, we also show that, in contrast to the free-drift model, neXtSIM reproduces the sea ice Lagrangian diffusion regimes as found from observed trajectories. The forecast capability of neXtSIM is also evaluated using a large set of real buoy's trajectories and compared to the capability of the free-drift model. We found that neXtSIM performs significantly better in simulating sea ice drift, both in terms of forecast error and as a tool to assist search and rescue operations, although the sources of uncertainties assumed for the present experiment are not sufficient for complete coverage of the observed IABP positions.

Projected SST trends across the Caribbean Sea based on PRECIS downscaling of ECHAM4, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurse, Leonard A.; Charlery, John L.

2016-01-01

The Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are highly sensitive to the projected impacts of global climate change. The countries bordering the Caribbean Sea depend heavily on coastal and marine assets as a major source of livelihood support. Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are known to be associated with coral bleaching, ocean acidification, and other phenomena that threaten livelihoods in the region. The paucity of SST systematic observations in both the Caribbean Sea and adjoining Western Atlantic waters is a limiting factor in the projection of future climate change impacts on the region's marine resources. Remote sensing of SST by satellites began only within the last three decades and although the data collected so far might be insufficient to provide conclusive definitions of long-term SST variations in the Caribbean waters, these data along with the output from climate model simulations provide a useful basis for gaining further insights into plausible SST futures under IPCC SRES scenarios. In this paper, we examine the recent SST records from the NESDIS AVHRR satellite data and NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature V2 and provide a comparative analysis of projected SST changes for the Caribbean Sea up to the end of the twenty-first century, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios' simulations of the sea surface skin temperatures (SSsT) using the Hadley Centre's regional model, PRECIS. The implications of these projected SST changes for bleaching of coral reefs, one of the region's most valuable marine resource, and for rainfall are also discussed.

GRACE Mass Flux Measurements of Inland and Marginal Seas from Mascons: Analysis and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loomis, B.; Luthcke, S. B.; Sabaka, T. J.

2015-12-01

The latest GRACE time-variable gravity mascon solution from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) applies an optimized set of models and constraints towards the direct measurement of 1-arc-degree global mass flux parameters each month. Separate mascon spatial constraint regions have been defined for the largest inland and marginal seas: Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, Caspian Sea, Red Sea, and Hudson Bay. The mascon estimation approach, when applied with well-designed constraints, minimizes signal leakage across regional boundaries and eliminates the need for post-processing strategies. These post-processing techniques (e.g. smoothed averaging kernels) are necessary for computing regional mass change from the unconstrained spherical harmonics provided by the GRACE project to reduce the effect of noisy high degree and order terms, but introduce signal leakage into and out of the considered region. These mass signals are also difficult to obtain from altimetry measurements due to the comparatively sparse temperature and salinity data in these regions, which is needed to compute and remove the steric component of sea level variations. We provide new GSFC mascon measurements of these inland and marginal seas and compare to results obtained from kernel-averaged spherical harmonic solutions and steric-corrected altimetry measurements. The relative accuracy of the various solutions is determined by incorporating their output into the set of forward models applied in our processing of the GRACE Level-1B data and analyzing the effect on the inter-satellite range-rate residuals, where a reduction in residuals is a direct validation of improved solution quality.

Modelling alpha-diversities of coastal lagoon fish assemblages from the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riera, R.; Tuset, V. M.; Betancur-R, R.; Lombarte, A.; Marcos, C.; Pérez-Ruzafa, A.

2018-07-01

Coastal lagoons are marine ecosystems spread worldwide with high ecological value; however, they are increasingly becoming deteriorated as a result of anthropogenic activity. Their conservation requires a better understanding of the biodiversity factors that may help identifying priority areas. The present study is focused on 37 Mediterranean coastal lagoons and we use predictive modelling approaches based on Generalized Linear Model (GLM) analysis to investigate variables (geomorphological, environmental, trophic or biogeographic) that may predict variations in alpha-diversity. It included taxonomic diversity, average taxonomic distinctness, and phylogenetic and functional diversity. Two GLM models by index were built depending on available variables for lagoons: in the model 1 all lagoons were used, and in the model 2 only 23. All alpha-diversity indices showed variability between lagoons associated to exogenous factors considered. The biogeographic region strongly conditioned most of models, being the first variable introduced in the models. The salinity and chlorophyll a concentration played a secondary role for the models 1 and 2, respectively. In general, the highest values of alpha-diversities were found in northwestern Mediterranean (Balearic Sea, Alborán Sea and Gulf of Lion), hence they might be considered "hotspots" at the Mediterranean scale and should have a special status for their protection.

An optical model for the microwave properties of sea ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gloersen, P.; Larabee, J. K.

1981-01-01

The complex refractive index of sea ice is modeled and used to predict the microwave signatures of various sea ice types. Results are shown to correspond well with the observed values of the complex index inferred from dielectic constant and dielectric loss measurements performed in the field, and with observed microwave signatures of sea ice. The success of this modeling procedure vis a vis modeling of the dielectric properties of sea ice constituents used earlier by several others is explained. Multiple layer radiative transfer calculations are used to predict the microwave properties of first-year sea ice with and without snow, and multiyear sea ice.

Geodynamic evolution of the lithosphere of the Sea of Okhotsk region from geophysical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verzhbitsky, E. V.; Kononov, M. V.

2006-06-01

The tectonic structure and anomalous distributions of geophysical fields of the Sea of Okhotsk region are considered; the lack of reliable data on the age of the lithosphere beneath basins of various origins in the Sea of Okhotsk is noted. Model calculations based on geological and geophysical data yielded an age of 65 Ma (the Cretaceous-Paleocene boundary) for the Central Okhotsk rise underlain by the continental lithosphere. This estimate agrees with the age (the end of the Cretaceous) derived from seismostratigraphic data. A comparative analysis of theoretical and measured heat fluxes in the Akademii Nauk Rise, underlain by a thinned continental crust, is performed. The analysis points to a higher (by 20%) value of the measured thermal background of the rise, which is consistent with a high negative gradient of gravity anomalies in this area. Calculations yielded an age of 36 Ma (the Early Oligocene) and a lithosphere thickness of 50 km for the South Okhotsk depression, whose seafloor was formed by processes of backarc spreading. The estimated age of the depression is supported by kinematic data on the region; the calculated thickness of the lithosphere coincides with the value estimated from data of magnetotelluric sounding here. This indicates that the formation time (36 Ma) of the South Okhotsk depression was estimated correctly. Numerical modeling performed for the determination of the basement age of rifting basins in the Sea of Okhotsk gave the following estimates: 18 Ma (the Early Miocene) for the Deryugin basin, 12 Ma (the Middle Miocene) for the TINRO basin, and 23 Ma (the Late Oligocene) for the West Kamchatka trough. These estimates agree with the formation time (Oligocene-Quaternary) of the sedimentary cover in rifting basins of the Sea of Okhotsk derived from geological and geophysical data. Model temperature estimates are obtained for lithologic and stratigraphic boundaries of the sedimentary cover in the Deryugin and TINRO basins and the West Kamchatka trough; the temperature analysis indicates that the latter two structures are promising for oil and hydrocarbon gas generation; the West Kamchatka trough possesses better reservoir properties compared to the TINRO and Deryugin basins. The latter is promising for the generation of hydrocarbon gas. Paleogeodynamic reconstructions of the Sea of Okhotsk region evolution are obtained for times of 90, 66, and 36 Ma on the basis of kinematic, geomagnetic, structural, tectonic, geothermal, and other geological and geophysical data.

Ocean acidification state in western Antarctic surface waters: drivers and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattsdotter Björk, M.; Fransson, A.; Chierici, M.

2013-05-01

Each December during four years from 2006 to 2010, the surface water carbonate system was measured and investigated in the Amundsen Sea and Ross Sea, western Antarctica as part of the Oden Southern Ocean expeditions (OSO). The I/B Oden started in Punta Arenas in Chile and sailed southwest, passing through different regimes such as, the marginal/seasonal ice zone, fronts, coastal shelves, and polynyas. Discrete surface water was sampled underway for analysis of total alkalinity (AT), total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) and pH. Two of these parameters were used together with sea-surface temperature (SST), and salinity to obtain a full description of the surface water carbonate system, including pH in situ and calcium carbonate saturation state of aragonite (ΩAr) and calcite (ΩCa). Multivariate analysis was used to investigate interannual variability and the major controls (sea-ice concentration, SST, salinity and chlorophyll a) on the variability in the carbonate system and Ω. This analysis showed that SST and chlorophyll a were the major drivers of the Ω variability in both the Amundsen and Ross seas. In 2007, the sea-ice edge was located further south and the area of the open polynya was relatively small compared to 2010. We found the lowest pH in situ (7.932) and Ω = 1 values in the sea-ice zone and in the coastal Amundsen Sea, nearby marine out flowing glaciers. In 2010, the sea-ice coverage was the largest and the areas of the open polynyas were the largest for the whole period. This year we found the lowest salinity and AT, coinciding with highest chl a. This implies that the highest ΩAr in 2010 was likely an effect of biological CO2 drawdown, which out-competed the dilution of carbonate ion concentration due to large melt water volumes. We predict and discuss future Ω values, using our data and reported rates of oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, suggesting that the Amundsen Sea will become undersaturated with regard to aragonite about 20 yr sooner than predicted by models.

The Impact of Stratospheric Circulation Extremes on Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.; Tremblay, B.

2017-12-01

The interannual variability of summertime Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is anti-correlated with the leading mode of extratropical atmospheric variability in preceding winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Given this relationship and the need for better seasonal predictions of Arctic SIE, we here examine the role of stratospheric circulation extremes and stratosphere-troposphere coupling in linking the AO and Arctic SIE variability. We show that extremes in the stratospheric circulation during the winter season, namely stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events, are associated with significant anomalies in sea ice concentration in the Bering Straight and the Sea of Okhotsk in winter, the Barents Sea in spring and along the Eurasian coastline in summer in both observations and a fully-coupled, stratosphere-resolving general circulation model. The accompanying figure shows the composite mean sea ice concentration anomalies from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) for SSWs (N = 126, top row) and SPVs (N = 99, bottom row) for winter (a,d), spring (b,e) and summer (c,f). Consistent with previous work on the AO, we find that SSWs, which are followed by the negative phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice growth, whereas SPVs, which are followed by the positive phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice loss, although the dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving these sea ice anomalies in the three Arctic regions, noted above, are different. Our analysis suggests that the presence or absence of stratospheric circulation extremes in winter may play a non-trivial role in determining total September Arctic SIE when combined with other factors.

Trophic ecology of sea urchins in coral-rocky reef systems, Ecuador

PubMed Central

Loor-Andrade, Peggy; Rodríguez-Barreras, Ruber; Cortés, Jorge

2016-01-01

Sea urchins are important grazers and influence reef development in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). Diadema mexicanum and Eucidaris thouarsii are the most important sea urchins on the Ecuadorian coastal reefs. This study provided a trophic scenario for these two species of echinoids in the coral-rocky reef bottoms of the Ecuadorian coast, using stable isotopes. We evaluated the relative proportion of algal resources assimilated, and trophic niche of the two sea urchins in the most southern coral-rocky reefs of the ETP in two sites with different disturbance level. Bayesian models were used to estimate the contribution of algal sources, niche breadth, and trophic overlap between the two species. The sea urchins behaved as opportunistic feeders, although they showed differential resource assimilation. Eucidaris thouarsii is the dominant species in disturbed environments; likewise, their niche amplitude was broader than that of D. mexicanum when conditions were not optimal. However, there was no niche overlap between the species. The Stable Isotope Analysis in R (SIAR) indicated that both sea urchins shared limiting resources in the disturbed area, mainly Dictyota spp. (contributions of up to 85% for D. mexicanum and up to 75% for E. thouarsii). The Stable Isotope Bayesian Ellipses in R (SIBER) analysis results indicated less interspecific competition in the undisturbed site. Our results suggested a trophic niche partitioning between sympatric sea urchin species in coastal areas of the ETP, but the limitation of resources could lead to trophic overlap and stronger habitat degradation. PMID:26839748

Detection of Sea Ice and Open Water from RADARSAT-2 Images for Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, A.; Buehner, M.

2016-12-01

Automated detection of sea ice and open water from SAR data is very important for further assimilation into coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere numerical models, such as the Regional Ice-Ocean Prediction System being implemented at the Environment and Climate Change Canada. Conventional classification approaches based on various learning techniques are found to be limited by the fact that they typically do not indicate the level of confidence for ice and water retrievals. Meanwhile, only ice/water retrievals with a very high level of confidence are allowed to be assimilated into the sea ice model to avoid propagating and magnifying errors into the numerical prediction system. In this study we developed a new technique for ice and water detection from dual-polarization RADARSAT-2 HH-HV images which provides the probability of ice/water at a given location. We collected many hundreds of thousands of SAR signatures over various sea ice types (i.e. new, grey, first-year, and multi-year ice) and open water from all available RADARSAT-2 images and the corresponding Canadian Ice Service Image Analysis products over the period from November 2010 to May 2016. Our analysis of the dataset revealed that ice/water separation can be effectively performed in the space of SAR-based variables independent of the incidence angle and noise floor (such as texture measures) and auxiliary Global Environmental Multiscale Model parameters (such as surface wind speed). Choice of the parameters will be specifically discussed in the presentation. An ice probability empirical model as a function of the selected predictors was built in a form of logistic regression, based on the training dataset from 2012 to 2016. The developed ice probability model showed very good performance on the independent testing subset (year 2011). With the ice/water probability threshold of 0.95 reflecting a very high level of confidence, 79% of the testing ice and water samples were classified with the accuracy of 99%. These results are particularly important in light of the upcoming RADARSAT Constellation mission which will drastically increase the amount of SAR data over the Arctic region.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific: seasonal variation and source attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yuanhong; Zhang, Lin; Pan, Yuepeng; Wang, Yuesi; Paulot, Fabien; Henze, Daven

2016-04-01

Rapid Asian industrialization has lead to increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition downwind threatening the marine environment. We present an analysis of the sources and processes controlling atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific, using the GEOS-Chem global chemistry model and its adjoint model at 1/2°× 2/3° horizontal resolution over the East Asia and its adjacent oceans. We focus our analyses on the marginal seas: the Yellow Sea and the South China Sea. Asian nitrogen emissions in the model are 28.6 Tg N a-1 as NH3 and 15.7 Tg N a-1 as NOx. China has the largest sources with 12.8 Tg N a-1 as NH3 and 7.9 Tg N a-1 as NOx; the much higher NH3 emissions reflect its intensive agricultural activities. We improve the seasonality of Asian NH3 emissions; emissions are a factor of 3 higher in summer than winter. The model simulation for 2008-2010 is evaluated with NH3 and NO2 column observations from satellite instruments, and wet deposition flux measurements from surface monitoring sites. Simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific ranges 0.8-20 kg N ha-1 a-1, decreasing rapidly downwind the Asian continent. Deposition fluxes average 11.9 kg N ha-1 a-1 (5.0 as reduced nitrogen NHx and 6.9 as oxidized nitrogen NOy) to the Yellow Sea, and 5.6 kg N ha-1 a-1 (2.5 as NHx and 3.1 as NOy) to the South China Sea. Nitrogen sources over the ocean (ship NOx and oceanic NH3) have little contribution to deposition over the Yellow Sea, about 7% over the South China Sea, and become important (greater than 30%) further downwind. We find that the seasonality of nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific is determined by variations in meteorology largely controlled by the East Asian Monsoon and in nitrogen emissions. The model adjoint further points out that nitrogen deposition to the Yellow Sea originates from sources over China (92% contribution) and the Korean peninsula (7%), and by sectors from fertilizer use (24%), power plants (22%), and transportation (18%). Deposition to the South China Sea shows source contribution from Mainland China (64%), Taiwan (21%), and the rest 15% from the Southeast Asian countries and oceanic NH3 emissions. The adjoint analyses also indicate that reducing Asian NH3 emissions would increase NOy dry deposition to the Yellow Sea (28% offset annually), limiting the effectiveness of NH3 emission controls.

Estimates of the temperatures of hydrocarbon generation in the region of the Sea of Okhotsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verzhbitsky, E. V.; Berlin, Yu. M.; Kononov, M. V.; Marina, M. M.

2006-07-01

Particular features of the tectonic structure and anomalous distribution of the geothermal, geomagnetic, and gravity fields in the region of the Sea of Okhotsk are considered. On the basis of heat flow data, the ages of large-scale structures in the Sea of Okhotsk are estimated at 65 Ma for the Central Okhotsk Rise and 36 Ma for the South Okhotsk Basin. The age of the South Okhotsk Basin is confirmed by the data on the kinematics and corresponds to a 50-km thickness of the lithosphere. This is in accordance with the thickness value obtained by magnetotelluric soundings. A comparative analysis of the model geothermal background and the measured heat flow values on the Akademii Nauk Rise is performed. The analysis points to an abnormally high (by approximately 20%) measured heat flow, which agrees with the high negative gradient of gravity anomalies. The estimates of the deep heat flow and the basement age of the riftogenic basins in the Sea of Okhotsk were carried out in the following areas: the Deryugin Basin (18 Ma, Early Miocene), the TINRO Basin (12 Ma, Middle Miocene), and the West Kamchatka Basin (23 Ma, Late Oligocene). The temperatures at the boundaries of the main lithological complexes of the sedimentary cover are calculated and the zones of oil and gas generation are defined. On the basis of geothermal, magnetic, structural, and other geological-geophysical data, a kinematic model of the region of the Sea of Okhotsk for a period of 36 Ma was calculated and constructed.

Past, present, and future changes in marine biogeochemistry in the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Six, Katharina; Segschneider, Joachim

2014-05-01

The work presented here aims at a better understanding of the Asian Monsoon system including the marine biogeochemistry in the Arabian Sea. Changes in the past as recorded in marine sediments, as simulated over the past 1000 years, and under forcing by anthropogenic CO2 emissions by numerical model simulations are investigated. The investigation is based on three columns: a sediment core taken in the Arabian Sea (core SO130-275KL taken off Pakistan), a pre-industrial model run from 850 - 1850 with the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) including the marine and terrestrial carbon cycle and forced by solar variations and volcanic eruptions, and a continuation of this simulation to 2005 under the historical anthropogenic CO2 forcing which allows a comparison with present day climatology. In a first step we compare model results for a set of biogeochemical tracers within the water column and the sediment mixed with observations in the Arabian Sea. We further analyse correlations between Monsoon forcing (represented by zonal wind speed at 850 hPA, short wave radiation, Indian summer precipitation) and biogeochemical parameters, with particular focus on denitrification rates and fluxes to the sediment. This analysis is focused on three regions: off Somalia and off Oman for the summer monsoon, and the central Arabian Sea for the winter monsoon. For the summer monsoon, the highest correlation is found between zonal wind speed and calcite flux to the sediment off Somalia, for the winter monsoon the correlation is highest for short wave radiation in the central Arabian Sea. Time series of mixed layer depth and integrated primary production within the upper 100 m of the ocean from a CMIP5 historical experiment (1850-2005) show, at the location of the sediment core SO130-275KL, little correlation during the summer monsoon, but good correlation during the winter monsoon. As a result, the sediment core is more likely to document winter monsoon conditions. Moreover, the model simulates denitrification in the oxygen minimum zones of the Indian Ocean as expected. More interesting, when comparing pre-industrial, present, and future states, it is shown that dentrification shows bipolar anomalies in the present state with a positive anomaly in the eastern Arabian Sea, and a negative anomaly in the western Arabian Sea. For 2100, when the model is forced by the RCP8.5 scenario, anomalies of denitrification are negative in the entire Arabian Sea.

Sea-Level Projections from the SeaRISE Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert

2011-01-01

SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) is a community organized modeling effort, whose goal is to inform the fifth IPCC of the potential sea-level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in the 21st and 22nd century. SeaRISE seeks to determine the most likely ice sheet response to imposed climatic forcing by initializing an ensemble of models with common datasets and applying the same forcing to each model. Sensitivity experiments were designed to quantify the sea-level rise associated with a change in: 1) surface mass balance, 2) basal lubrication, and 3) ocean induced basal melt. The range of responses, resulting from the multi-model approach, is interpreted as a proxy of uncertainty in our sea-level projections. http://websrv.cs .umt.edu/isis/index.php/SeaRISE_Assessment.

Wave Attenuation and Gas Exchange Velocity in Marginal Sea Ice Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigdeli, A.; Hara, T.; Loose, B.; Nguyen, A. T.

2018-03-01

The gas transfer velocity in marginal sea ice zones exerts a strong control on the input of anthropogenic gases into the ocean interior. In this study, a sea state-dependent gas exchange parametric model is developed based on the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate. The model is tuned to match the conventional gas exchange parametrization in fetch-unlimited, fully developed seas. Next, fetch limitation is introduced in the model and results are compared to fetch limited experiments in lakes, showing that the model captures the effects of finite fetch on gas exchange with good fidelity. Having validated the results in fetch limited waters such as lakes, the model is next applied in sea ice zones using an empirical relation between the sea ice cover and the effective fetch, while accounting for the sea ice motion effect that is unique to sea ice zones. The model results compare favorably with the available field measurements. Applying this parametric model to a regional Arctic numerical model, it is shown that, under the present conditions, gas flux into the Arctic Ocean may be overestimated by 10% if a conventional parameterization is used.

Density dependence and risk of extinction in a small population of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; Buenau, K.E.; VanBlaricom, G.

2004-01-01

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris (L.)) were hunted to extinction off the coast of Washington State early in the 20th century. A new population was established by translocations from Alaska in 1969 and 1970. The population, currently numbering at least 550 animals, A major threat to the population is the ongoing risk of majour oil spills in sea otter habitat. We apply population models to census and demographic data in order to evaluate the status of the population. We fit several density dependent models to test for density dependence and determine plausible values for the carrying capacity (K) by comparing model goodness of fit to an exponential model. Model fits were compared using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). A significant negative relationship was found between the population growth rate and population size (r2=0.27, F=5.57, df=16, p<0.05), suggesting density dependence in Washington state sea otters. Information criterion statistics suggest that the model is the most parsimonious, followed closely by the logistic Beverton-Holt model. Values of K ranged from 612 to 759 with best-fit parameter estimates for the Beverton-Holt model including 0.26 for r and 612 for K. The latest (2001) population index count (555) puts the population at 87-92% of the estimated carrying capacity, above the suggested range for optimum sustainable population (OSP). Elasticity analysis was conducted to examine the effects of proportional changes in vital rates on the population growth rate (??). The elasticity values indicate the population is most sensitive to changes in survival rates (particularly adult survival).

A Mesoscale Model Analysis of Sea Fog Formation and Dissipation Near Kunsan Air Base

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

vapor YS Yellow Sea Z Zulu time xvii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This process has been the most enjoyable, and at times, the...most daunting; however, I have a few people to thank for making it more of the former rather than the latter. Without this person I would not have...coordinated universal time (UTC) or Zulu time (Z), which is minus nine hours to Korean Standard Time (KST). For the period of interest to this

Refined Source Terms in Wave Watch 3 with Wave Breaking and Sea Spray Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-05

Farmer at IOS Canada involved a novel scale analysis of breaking waves. This was motivated by the results of the model study of wave breaking onset by...timely development that needs careful examination. 4.11 Highlights of the SPANDEX study SPANDEX, the Spray Production and Dynamics Experiment, is...speed alone. To accomplish this goal, a parallel laboratory study (SPANDEX II) was undertaken to parameterize sea spray flux dependences on breaking

Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Record in French Polynesia, South-Central Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Vella, C.; Eisenhauer, A.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Fietzke, J.; Dussouillez, P.; Plaine, J.

2014-12-01

The Mid- to Late Holocene provides the opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change that has a similar amplitude (i.e., a few decimetres up to 1 m) to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the current century. Furthermore, this time period provides an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. This study aims to reconstruct Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia by examining coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level change studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets ('far-field'), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. The accurate reconstruction of sea-level change relies on absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements with a vertical and horizontal precision of ± 2.5 cm and ~1 cm, respectively. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the water level. Their growth patterns allow the reconstruction of low-amplitude and high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than ~1 m is documented between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Moving beyond the total sea ice extent in gauging model biases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ivanova, Detelina P.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Taylor, Karl E.

Here, reproducing characteristics of observed sea ice extent remains an important climate modeling challenge. This study describes several approaches to improve how model biases in total sea ice distribution are quantified, and applies them to historically forced simulations contributed to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The quantity of hemispheric total sea ice area, or some measure of its equatorward extent, is often used to evaluate model performance. A new approach is introduced that investigates additional details about the structure of model errors, with an aim to reduce the potential impact of compensating errors when gauging differencesmore » between simulated and observed sea ice. Using multiple observational datasets, several new methods are applied to evaluate the climatological spatial distribution and the annual cycle of sea ice cover in 41 CMIP5 models. It is shown that in some models, error compensation can be substantial, for example resulting from too much sea ice in one region and too little in another. Error compensation tends to be larger in models that agree more closely with the observed total sea ice area, which may result from model tuning. The results herein suggest that consideration of only the total hemispheric sea ice area or extent can be misleading when quantitatively comparing how well models agree with observations. Further work is needed to fully develop robust methods to holistically evaluate the ability of models to capture the finescale structure of sea ice characteristics; however, the “sector scale” metric used here aids in reducing the impact of compensating errors in hemispheric integrals.« less

Moving beyond the total sea ice extent in gauging model biases

DOE PAGES

Ivanova, Detelina P.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Taylor, Karl E.; ...

2016-11-29

Here, reproducing characteristics of observed sea ice extent remains an important climate modeling challenge. This study describes several approaches to improve how model biases in total sea ice distribution are quantified, and applies them to historically forced simulations contributed to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The quantity of hemispheric total sea ice area, or some measure of its equatorward extent, is often used to evaluate model performance. A new approach is introduced that investigates additional details about the structure of model errors, with an aim to reduce the potential impact of compensating errors when gauging differencesmore » between simulated and observed sea ice. Using multiple observational datasets, several new methods are applied to evaluate the climatological spatial distribution and the annual cycle of sea ice cover in 41 CMIP5 models. It is shown that in some models, error compensation can be substantial, for example resulting from too much sea ice in one region and too little in another. Error compensation tends to be larger in models that agree more closely with the observed total sea ice area, which may result from model tuning. The results herein suggest that consideration of only the total hemispheric sea ice area or extent can be misleading when quantitatively comparing how well models agree with observations. Further work is needed to fully develop robust methods to holistically evaluate the ability of models to capture the finescale structure of sea ice characteristics; however, the “sector scale” metric used here aids in reducing the impact of compensating errors in hemispheric integrals.« less

Analysis of a general circulation model product. I - Frontal systems in the Brazil/Malvinas and Kuroshio/Oyashio regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garzoli, Silvia L.; Garraffo, Zulema; Podesta, Guillermo; Brown, Otis

1992-01-01

The general circulation model (GCM) of Semtner and Chervin (1992) is tested by comparing the fields produced by this model with available observations in two western boundary current regions, the Brazil/Malvinas and the Kuroshio/Oyashio confluences. The two sets of data used are the sea surface temperature from satellite observations and the temperature field product from the GCM at levels 1 (12.5 m), 2 (37.5 m), and 6 (160 m). It is shown that the model reproduces intense thermal fronts at the sea surface and in the upper layers (where they are induced by the internal dynamics of the model). The location of the fronts are reproduced in the model within 4 to 5 deg, compared with observations. However, the variability of these fronts was found to be less pronounced in the model than in the observations.

Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Evolution using Koopman Mode Decomposition Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

Koopman Mode Analysis was newly applied to southern hemisphere sea ice concentration data. The resulting Koopman modes from analysis of both the...southern and northern hemisphere sea ice concentration data shows geographical regions where sea ice coverage has decreased over multiyear time scales.

High-throughput sequencing and analysis of the gill tissue transcriptome from the deep-sea hydrothermal vent mussel Bathymodiolus azoricus

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Bathymodiolus azoricus is a deep-sea hydrothermal vent mussel found in association with large faunal communities living in chemosynthetic environments at the bottom of the sea floor near the Azores Islands. Investigation of the exceptional physiological reactions that vent mussels have adopted in their habitat, including responses to environmental microbes, remains a difficult challenge for deep-sea biologists. In an attempt to reveal genes potentially involved in the deep-sea mussel innate immunity we carried out a high-throughput sequence analysis of freshly collected B. azoricus transcriptome using gills tissues as the primary source of immune transcripts given its strategic role in filtering the surrounding waterborne potentially infectious microorganisms. Additionally, a substantial EST data set was produced and from which a comprehensive collection of genes coding for putative proteins was organized in a dedicated database, "DeepSeaVent" the first deep-sea vent animal transcriptome database based on the 454 pyrosequencing technology. Results A normalized cDNA library from gills tissue was sequenced in a full 454 GS-FLX run, producing 778,996 sequencing reads. Assembly of the high quality reads resulted in 75,407 contigs of which 3,071 were singletons. A total of 39,425 transcripts were conceptually translated into amino-sequences of which 22,023 matched known proteins in the NCBI non-redundant protein database, 15,839 revealed conserved protein domains through InterPro functional classification and 9,584 were assigned with Gene Ontology terms. Queries conducted within the database enabled the identification of genes putatively involved in immune and inflammatory reactions which had not been previously evidenced in the vent mussel. Their physical counterpart was confirmed by semi-quantitative quantitative Reverse-Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reactions (RT-PCR) and their RNA transcription level by quantitative PCR (qPCR) experiments. Conclusions We have established the first tissue transcriptional analysis of a deep-sea hydrothermal vent animal and generated a searchable catalog of genes that provides a direct method of identifying and retrieving vast numbers of novel coding sequences which can be applied in gene expression profiling experiments from a non-conventional model organism. This provides the most comprehensive sequence resource for identifying novel genes currently available for a deep-sea vent organism, in particular, genes putatively involved in immune and inflammatory reactions in vent mussels. The characterization of the B. azoricus transcriptome will facilitate research into biological processes underlying physiological adaptations to hydrothermal vent environments and will provide a basis for expanding our understanding of genes putatively involved in adaptations processes during post-capture long term acclimatization experiments, at "sea-level" conditions, using B. azoricus as a model organism. PMID:20937131

Genetic models reveal historical patterns of sea lamprey population fluctuations within Lake Champlain

PubMed Central

Azodi, Christina B.; Sheldon, Sallie P.; Trombulak, Stephen C.; Ardren, William R.

2015-01-01

The origin of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in Lake Champlain has been heavily debated over the past decade. Given the lack of historical documentation, two competing hypotheses have emerged in the literature. First, it has been argued that the relatively recent population size increase and concomitant rise in wounding rates on prey populations are indicative of an invasive population that entered the lake through the Champlain Canal. Second, recent genetic evidence suggests a post-glacial colonization at the end of the Pleistocene, approximately 11,000 years ago. One limitation to resolving the origin of sea lamprey in Lake Champlain is a lack of historical and current measures of population size. In this study, the issue of population size was explicitly addressed using nuclear (nDNA) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers to estimate historical demography with genetic models. Haplotype network analysis, mismatch analysis, and summary statistics based on mtDNA noncoding sequences for NCI (479 bp) and NCII (173 bp) all indicate a recent population expansion. Coalescent models based on mtDNA and nDNA identified two potential demographic events: a population decline followed by a very recent population expansion. The decline in effective population size may correlate with land-use and fishing pressure changes post-European settlement, while the recent expansion may be associated with the implementation of the salmonid stocking program in the 1970s. These results are most consistent with the hypothesis that sea lamprey are native to Lake Champlain; however, the credibility intervals around parameter estimates demonstrate that there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude and timing of past demographic events. PMID:26539334

Sea-ice, clouds and atmospheric conditions in the arctic and their interactions as derived from a merged C3M data product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nag, Bappaditya

The polar regions of the world constitute an important sector in the global energy balance. Among other effects responsible for the change in the sea-ice cover like ocean circulation and ice-albedo feedback, the cloud-radiation feedback also plays a vital role in modulation of the Arctic environment. However the annual cycle of the clouds is very poorly represented in current global circulation models. This study aimed to explore the atmospheric conditions in the Arctic on an unprecedented spatial coverage spanning 70°N to 80°N through the use of a merged data product, C3MData (derived from NASA's A-Train Series). The following three topics provide outline on how this dataset can be used to accomplish a detailed analysis of the Arctic environment and provide the modelling community with first information to update their models aimed at better forecasts. (1)The three properties of the Arctic climate system to be studied using the C3MData are sea-ice, clouds, and the atmospheric conditions. The first topic is to document the present states of the three properties and also their time evolutions or their seasonal cycles. (2)The second topic is aimed at the interactions or the feedbacks processes among the three properties. For example, the immediate alteration in the fluxes and the feedbacks arising from the change in the sea-ice cover is investigated. Seasonal and regional variations are also studied. (3)The third topics is aimed at the processes in native spatial resolution that drive or accompany with sea ice melting and sea ice growth. Using a composite approach based on a classification due to surface type, it is found that limitation of the water vapour influx from the surface due to change in phase at the surface featuring open oceans or marginal sea-ice cover to complete sea-ice cover is a major determinant in the modulation of the atmospheric moisture. The impact of the cloud-radiative effects in the Arctic is found to vary with sea-ice cover and seasonally. The effect of the marginal sea-ice cover becomes more and more pronounced in the winter. The seasonal variation of the dependence of the atmospheric moisture on the surface and the subsequent feedback effects is controlled by the atmospheric stability measured as a difference between the potential temperature at the surface and the 700hPa level. A regional analysis of the same suggests that most of the depiction of the variations observed is contributed from the North Atlantic region.

Identifying Environmental Risk Factors of Cholera in a Coastal Area with Geospatial Technologies

PubMed Central

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Wang, Duochun; Kan, Biao

2014-01-01

Satellites contribute significantly to environmental quality and public health. Environmental factors are important indicators for the prediction of disease outbreaks. This study reveals the environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, a coastal province of China, using both Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic information System (GIS). The analysis validated the correlation between the indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local cholera magnitude based on a ten-year monthly data from the year 1999 to 2008. Cholera magnitude has been strongly affected by the concurrent variables of SST and SSH, while OCC has a one-month time lag effect. A cholera prediction model has been established based on the sea environmental factors. The results of hot spot analysis showed the local cholera magnitude in counties significantly associated with the estuaries and rivers. PMID:25551518

Identifying environmental risk factors of cholera in a coastal area with geospatial technologies.

PubMed

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Wang, Duochun; Kan, Biao

2014-12-29

Satellites contribute significantly to environmental quality and public health. Environmental factors are important indicators for the prediction of disease outbreaks. This study reveals the environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, a coastal province of China, using both Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic information System (GIS). The analysis validated the correlation between the indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local cholera magnitude based on a ten-year monthly data from the year 1999 to 2008. Cholera magnitude has been strongly affected by the concurrent variables of SST and SSH, while OCC has a one-month time lag effect. A cholera prediction model has been established based on the sea environmental factors. The results of hot spot analysis showed the local cholera magnitude in counties significantly associated with the estuaries and rivers.

Analysis of Thematic Mapper data for studying the suspended matter distribution in the coastal area of the German Bight (North Sea)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doerffer, R.; Fischer, J.; Stoessel, M.; Brockmann, C.; Grassl, H.

1989-01-01

Thematic Mapper data were analyzed with respect to its capability for mapping the complex structure and dynamics of suspended matter distribution in the coastal area of the German Bight (North Sea). Three independent pieces of information were found by factor analysis of all seven TM channels: suspended matter concentration, atmospheric scattering, and sea surface temperature. For the required atmospheric correction, the signal-to-noise ratios of Channels 5 and 7 have to be improved by averaging over 25 x 25 pixels, which also makes it possible to monitor the aerosol optical depth and aerosol type over cloud-free water surfaces. Near-surface suspended matter concentrations may be detected with an accuracy of factor less than 2 by using an algorithm derived from radiative transfer model calculation. The patchiness of suspended matter and its relation to underwater topography was analyzed with autocorrelation and cross-correlation.

Starvation and recovery in the deep-sea methanotroph Methyloprofundus sedimenti.

PubMed

Tavormina, Patricia L; Kellermann, Matthias Y; Antony, Chakkiath Paul; Tocheva, Elitza I; Dalleska, Nathan F; Jensen, Ashley J; Valentine, David L; Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Jensen, Grant J; Dubilier, Nicole; Orphan, Victoria J

2017-01-01

In the deep ocean, the conversion of methane into derived carbon and energy drives the establishment of diverse faunal communities. Yet specific biological mechanisms underlying the introduction of methane-derived carbon into the food web remain poorly described, due to a lack of cultured representative deep-sea methanotrophic prokaryotes. Here, the response of the deep-sea aerobic methanotroph Methyloprofundus sedimenti to methane starvation and recovery was characterized. By combining lipid analysis, RNA analysis, and electron cryotomography, it was shown that M. sedimenti undergoes discrete cellular shifts in response to methane starvation, including changes in headgroup-specific fatty acid saturation levels, and reductions in cytoplasmic storage granules. Methane starvation is associated with a significant increase in the abundance of gene transcripts pertinent to methane oxidation. Methane reintroduction to starved cells stimulates a rapid, transient extracellular accumulation of methanol, revealing a way in which methane-derived carbon may be routed to community members. This study provides new understanding of methanotrophic responses to methane starvation and recovery, and lays the initial groundwork to develop Methyloprofundus as a model chemosynthesizing bacterium from the deep sea. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Lagrangian Turbulence and Transport in Semi-enclosed Basins and Coastal Regions

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-30

Adriatic Sea using NCOM. Ocean Modelling, 17, 68-91 Taillandier V., A. Griffa, P.M. Poulain, R. Signell, J. Chiggiato , S. Carniel. Variational...A. Griffa, P.M. Poulain, R. Signell, J. Chiggiato , S. Carniel. Variational analysis of drifter positions and model outputs for the reconstruction of

North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Phase I: Statistical Analysis of Historical Extreme Water Levels with Sea Level Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

14-7 ii Abstract The U.S. North Atlantic coast is subject to coastal flooding as a result of both severe extratropical storms (e.g., Nor’easters...Products and Services, excluding any kind of high-resolution hydrodynamic modeling. Tropical and extratropical storms were treated as a single...joint probability analysis and high-fidelity modeling of tropical and extratropical storms

Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elders, Akiko; Pegion, Kathy

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the climate system, moderating the exchange of energy and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere. An emerging area of research investigates how changes, particularly declines, in sea ice extent (SIE) impact climate in regions local to and remote from the Arctic. Therefore, both observations and model estimates of sea ice become important. This study investigates the skill of sea ice predictions from models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. Three of the models in this project provide sea-ice predictions. The ensemble average of these models is used to determine seasonal climate impacts on surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in remote regions such as the mid-latitudes. It is found that declines in fall SIE are associated with cold temperatures in the mid-latitudes and pressure patterns across the Arctic and mid-latitudes similar to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). These findings are consistent with other studies that have investigated the relationship between declines in SIE and mid-latitude weather and climate. In an attempt to include additional NMME models for sea-ice predictions, a proxy for SIE is used to estimate ice extent in the remaining models, using sea surface temperature (SST). It is found that SST is a reasonable proxy for SIE estimation when compared to model SIE forecasts and observations. The proxy sea-ice estimates also show similar relationships to mid-latitude temperature and pressure as the actual sea-ice predictions.

Sea Ice Biogeochemistry: A Guide for Modellers

PubMed Central

Tedesco, Letizia; Vichi, Marcello

2014-01-01

Sea ice is a fundamental component of the climate system and plays a key role in polar trophic food webs. Nonetheless sea ice biogeochemical dynamics at large temporal and spatial scales are still rarely described. Numerical models may potentially contribute integrating among sparse observations, but available models of sea ice biogeochemistry are still scarce, whether their relevance for properly describing the current and future state of the polar oceans has been recently addressed. A general methodology to develop a sea ice biogeochemical model is presented, deriving it from an existing validated model application by extension of generic pelagic biogeochemistry model parameterizations. The described methodology is flexible and considers different levels of ecosystem complexity and vertical representation, while adopting a strategy of coupling that ensures mass conservation. We show how to apply this methodology step by step by building an intermediate complexity model from a published realistic application and applying it to analyze theoretically a typical season of first-year sea ice in the Arctic, the one currently needing the most urgent understanding. The aim is to (1) introduce sea ice biogeochemistry and address its relevance to ocean modelers of polar regions, supporting them in adding a new sea ice component to their modelling framework for a more adequate representation of the sea ice-covered ocean ecosystem as a whole, and (2) extend our knowledge on the relevant controlling factors of sea ice algal production, showing that beyond the light and nutrient availability, the duration of the sea ice season may play a key-role shaping the algal production during the on going and upcoming projected changes. PMID:24586604

The phytoplankton bloom in the northwestern Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon of 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brock, John C.; Mcclain, Charles R.; Luther, Mark E.; Hay, William W.

1991-01-01

The present study investigates the biological variability of the northwestern Arabian Sea during the 1979 southwest monsoon by the synthesis of satellite ocean color remote sensing with an analysis of in situ hydrographic and meteorological data sets and the results of wind-driven modeling of upper-ocean circulation. The phytoplankton bloom peaked during August-September, extended from the Oman coast to about 65 deg E, and lagged behind the development of open-sea upwelling by at least 1 mo. The pigment distributions, hydrographic data, and model results all suggest that the boom was driven by spatially distinct upward nutrient fluxes to the euphotic zone forced by the physical processes of coastal upwelling and offshore Ekman pumping. Coastal upwelling was evident from May through September, yielded the most extreme concentrations of phytoplankton biomass, and, along the Arabian coast, was limited to the continental shelf in the promotion of high concentrations of phytoplankton.

An approach for the assessment of the statistical aspects of the SEA coupling loss factors and the vibrational energy transmission in complex aircraft structures: Experimental investigation and methods benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouhaj, M.; von Estorff, O.; Peiffer, A.

2017-09-01

In the application of Statistical Energy Analysis "SEA" to complex assembled structures, a purely predictive model often exhibits errors. These errors are mainly due to a lack of accurate modelling of the power transmission mechanism described through the Coupling Loss Factors (CLF). Experimental SEA (ESEA) is practically used by the automotive and aerospace industry to verify and update the model or to derive the CLFs for use in an SEA predictive model when analytical estimates cannot be made. This work is particularly motivated by the lack of procedures that allow an estimate to be made of the variance and confidence intervals of the statistical quantities when using the ESEA technique. The aim of this paper is to introduce procedures enabling a statistical description of measured power input, vibration energies and the derived SEA parameters. Particular emphasis is placed on the identification of structural CLFs of complex built-up structures comparing different methods. By adopting a Stochastic Energy Model (SEM), the ensemble average in ESEA is also addressed. For this purpose, expressions are obtained to randomly perturb the energy matrix elements and generate individual samples for the Monte Carlo (MC) technique applied to derive the ensemble averaged CLF. From results of ESEA tests conducted on an aircraft fuselage section, the SEM approach provides a better performance of estimated CLFs compared to classical matrix inversion methods. The expected range of CLF values and the synthesized energy are used as quality criteria of the matrix inversion, allowing to assess critical SEA subsystems, which might require a more refined statistical description of the excitation and the response fields. Moreover, the impact of the variance of the normalized vibration energy on uncertainty of the derived CLFs is outlined.

Long-term retrospective analysis of mackerel spawning in the North Sea: a new time series and modeling approach to CPR data.

PubMed

Jansen, Teunis; Kristensen, Kasper; Payne, Mark; Edwards, Martin; Schrum, Corinna; Pitois, Sophie

2012-01-01

We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels. Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock.

Long-Term Retrospective Analysis of Mackerel Spawning in the North Sea: A New Time Series and Modeling Approach to CPR Data

PubMed Central

Jansen, Teunis; Kristensen, Kasper; Payne, Mark; Edwards, Martin; Schrum, Corinna; Pitois, Sophie

2012-01-01

We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels. Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock. PMID:22737221

Biomass assimilation in coupled ecohydrodynamical model of the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crispi, G.; Bournaski, E.; Crise, A.

2003-04-01

Data assimilation has raised new interest in the last years in the context of the environmental sciences. The swift increment of the attention paid to it in oceanography is due to the coming age of operational services for the marine environment which is going to dramatically increase the demand for accurate, timely and reliable estimates of the space and time distribution both for physical and in a near future for biogeochemical fields. Data assimilation combines information derived from measurements with knowledge of the rules that govern the evolution of the system of interest through formalization and implementation in numerical models. The importance of ocean data assimilation has been recognized by several international programmes as JGOFS, GOOS and CLIVAR. This work presents an eco-hydrodynamic model of the Mediterranean Sea developed at the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale - OGS, Trieste, Italy. It includes 3-D MOM-based hydrodynamics of the Mediterranean Sea, coupled with biochemical model of Nitrogen, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, and Detritus (NPZD). Monthly mean wind forcings are adopted to force this MOM-NPZD model. For better prediction and analysis of N, P, Z and D distributions in the sea the model needs data assimilation from biomass observations on the sea surface. Chosen approach for evaluating performances of data assimilation techniques in coupled model is the definition of a twin experiment testbed where a reference run is carried out assuming its result as the truth. We define a sampling strategy to obtain different datasets to be incorporated in another ecological model in successive runs in order to appraise the potential of the data assimilation and sampling strategy. The runs carried out with different techniques and different spatio-temporal coverages are compared in order to evaluate the sensitivity to different coverage of dataset. The discussed alternative way is to assume the ecosystem at steady state and redistribute, via nudging and according with this constraint, the informations to non-observed variables.

Updating sea spray aerosol emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0.2

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The uploaded data consists of the BRACE Na aerosol observations paired with CMAQ model output, the updated model's parameterization of sea salt aerosol emission size distribution, and the model's parameterization of the sea salt emission factor as a function of sea surface temperature. This dataset is associated with the following publication:Gantt , B., J. Kelly , and J. Bash. Updating sea spray aerosol emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0.2. Geoscientific Model Development. Copernicus Publications, Katlenburg-Lindau, GERMANY, 8: 3733-3746, (2015).

Multi-platform validation of a high-resolution model in the Western Mediterranean Sea: insight into spatial-temporal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Eva; Mourre, Baptiste; Heslop, Emma; Juza, Mélanie; Escudier, Romain; Tintoré, Joaquín

2017-04-01

This study focuses on the validation of the high resolution Western Mediterranean Operational model (WMOP) developed at SOCIB, the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System. The Mediterranean Sea is often seen as a small scale ocean laboratory where energetic eddies, fronts and circulation features have important ecological consequences. The Medclic project is a program between "La Caixa" Foundation and SOCIB which aims at characterizing and forecasting the "oceanic weather" in the Western Mediterranean Sea, specifically investigating the interactions between the general circulation and mesoscale processes. We use a WMOP 2009-2015 free run hindcast simulation and available observational datasets (altimetry, moorings and gliders) to both assess the numerical simulation and investigate the ocean variability. WMOP has a 2-km spatial resolution and uses CMEMS Mediterranean products as initial and boundary conditions, with surface forcing from the high-resolution Spanish Meteorological Agency model HIRLAM. Different aspects of the spatial and temporal variability in the model are validated from local to regional and basin scales: (1) the principal axis of variability of the surface circulation using altimetry and moorings along the Iberian coast, (2) the inter-annual changes of the surface flows incorporating also glider data, (3) the propagation of mesoscale eddies formed in the Algerian sub-basin using altimetry, and (4) the statistical properties of eddies (number, rotation, size) applying an eddy tracker detection method in the Western Mediterranean Sea. With these key points evaluated in the model, EOF analysis of sea surface height maps are used to investigate spatial patterns of variability associated with eddies, gyres and the basis-scale circulation and so gain insight into the interconnections between sub-basins, as well as the interactions between physical processes at different scales.

Modeling a Typical Winter-time Dust Event over the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalenderski, S.; Stenchikov, G.; Zhao, Chun

2013-02-20

We used WRF-Chem, a regional meteorological model coupled with an aerosol-chemistry component, to simulate various aspects of the dust phenomena over the Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea during a typical winter-time dust event that occurred in January 2009. The model predicted that the total amount of emitted dust was 18.3 Tg for the entire dust outburst period and that the two maximum daily rates were ~2.4 Tg/day and ~1.5 Tg/day, corresponding to two periods with the highest aerosol optical depth that were well captured by ground- and satellite-based observations. The model predicted that the dust plume was thick, extensive, andmore » mixed in a deep boundary layer at an altitude of 3-4 km. Its spatial distribution was modeled to be consistent with typical spatial patterns of dust emissions. We utilized MODIS-Aqua and Solar Village AERONET measurements of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) to evaluate the radiative impact of aerosols. Our results clearly indicated that the presence of dust particles in the atmosphere caused a significant reduction in the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface during the dust event. We also found that dust aerosols have significant impact on the energy and nutrient balances of the Red Sea. Our results showed that the simulated cooling under the dust plume reached 100 W/m2, which could have profound effects on both the sea surface temperature and circulation. Further analysis of dust generation and its spatial and temporal variability is extremely important for future projections and for better understanding of the climate and ecological history of the Red Sea.« less

Stress and deformation characteristics of sea ice in a high resolution numerical sea ice model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heorton, Harry; Feltham, Daniel; Tsamados, Michel

2017-04-01

The drift and deformation of sea ice floating on the polar oceans is due to the applied wind and ocean currents. The deformations of sea ice over ocean basin length scales have observable patterns; cracks and leads in satellite images and within the velocity fields generated from floe tracking. In a climate sea ice model the deformation of sea ice over ocean basin length scales is modelled using a rheology that represents the relationship between stresses and deformation within the sea ice cover. Here we investigate the link between observable deformation characteristics and the underlying internal sea ice stresses and force balance using the Los Alamos numerical sea ice climate model. In order to mimic laboratory experiments on the deformation of small cubes of sea ice we have developed an idealised square domain that tests the model response at spatial resolutions of up to 500m. We use the Elastic Anisotropic Plastic and Elastic Viscous Plastic rheologies, comparing their stability over varying resolutions and time scales. Sea ice within the domain is forced by idealised winds in order to compare the confinement of wind stresses and internal sea ice stresses. We document the characteristic deformation patterns of convergent, divergent and rotating stress states.

Forecasting sea fog on the coast of southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.; Huang, B.; Liu, C.; Tu, J.; Wen, G.; Mao, W.

2016-12-01

Forecast sea fog is still full of challenges. We have performed the numerical forecasting of sea fog on the coast of southern China by using the operational meso-scale regional model GRAPES (Global/Regional assimilation and prediction system). The GRAPES model horizontal resolution was 3km and with 66 vertical levels. A total of 72 hours forecasting of sea fog was conducted with hourly outputs over the sea fog event. The results show that the model system can predict reasonable characteristics of typical sea fog events on the coast of southern China. The scope of sea fog coincides with the observations of meteorological stations, the observations of the Marine Meteorological Science Experiment Base (MMSEB) at Bohe, Maoming and satellite products of sea fog. The goal of this study is to establish an operational numerical forecasting model system of sea fog on the coast of southern China.

Consistent biases in Antarctic sea ice concentration simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, Lettie A.; Dean, Samuel M.; Renwick, James A.

2018-01-01

The simulation of Antarctic sea ice in global climate models often does not agree with observations. In this study, we examine the compactness of sea ice, as well as the regional distribution of sea ice concentration, in climate models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and in satellite observations. We find substantial differences in concentration values between different sets of satellite observations, particularly at high concentrations, requiring careful treatment when comparing to models. As a fraction of total sea ice extent, models simulate too much loose, low-concentration sea ice cover throughout the year, and too little compact, high-concentration cover in the summer. In spite of the differences in physics between models, these tendencies are broadly consistent across the population of 40 CMIP5 simulations, a result not previously highlighted. Separating models with and without an explicit lateral melt term, we find that inclusion of lateral melt may account for overestimation of low-concentration cover. Targeted model experiments with a coupled ocean-sea ice model show that choice of constant floe diameter in the lateral melt scheme can also impact representation of loose ice. This suggests that current sea ice thermodynamics contribute to the inadequate simulation of the low-concentration regime in many models.

Numerical Simulation of Internal Waves in the Andaman Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, Sachiko; Devendra Rao, Ambarukhana

2017-04-01

The interactions of barotropic tides with irregular bottom topography generate internal waves with high amplitude known as large-amplitude internal waves (LAIW) in the Andaman Sea. These waves are an important phenomena in the ocean due to their influence on the density structure and energy transfer into the region. These waves are also important in submarine acoustics, underwater navigation, offshore structures, ocean mixing, biogeochemical processes, etc. over the shelf-slope region. In the present study, energetics analysis of M2 internal tides over the Andaman Sea is carried out in detail by using a three-dimensional MIT general circulation ocean model (MITgcm). In-situ observations of temperature, conductivity and currents with high temporal resolution are used to validate the model simulations. From the spectral energy estimate of density, it is found that the peak estimate is associated with the semi-diurnal frequency at all the depths in both observations and model simulations. The baroclinic velocity characteristics, suggests that a multi-mode features of baroclinic tides are present at the buoy location. To understand the generation and propagation of internal tides over this region, energy flux and barotropic-to-baroclinic M2 tidal energy conversion rates are examined. The model simulation suggests that the internal tide is generated at multiple sites and propagate off of their respective generation sources. Most of the energy propagation in the Andaman Sea follows the 1000m isobath. The maximum horizontal kinetic energy follows the energy flux pattern over the domain and the available potential energy is found to be maximum in the north of the Andaman Sea.

Decadal-timescale changes of the Atlantic overturning circulation and climate in a coupled climate model with a hybrid-coordinate ocean component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persechino, A.; Marsh, R.; Sinha, B.; Megann, A. P.; Blaker, A. T.; New, A. L.

2012-08-01

A wide range of statistical tools is used to investigate the decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated key variables in a climate model (CHIME, Coupled Hadley-Isopycnic Model Experiment), which features a novel ocean component. CHIME is as similar as possible to the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) with the important exception that its ocean component is based on a hybrid vertical coordinate. Power spectral analysis reveals enhanced AMOC variability for periods in the range 15-30 years. Strong AMOC conditions are associated with: (1) a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly pattern reminiscent of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) response, but associated with variations in a northern tropical-subtropical gradient; (2) a Surface Air Temperature anomaly pattern closely linked to SST; (3) a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern; (4) a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The primary mode of AMOC variability is associated with decadal changes in the Labrador Sea and the Greenland Iceland Norwegian (GIN) Seas, in both cases linked to the tropical activity about 15 years earlier. These decadal changes are controlled by the low-frequency NAO that may be associated with a rapid atmospheric teleconnection from the tropics to the extratropics. Poleward advection of salinity anomalies in the mixed layer also leads to AMOC changes that are linked to processes in the Labrador Sea. A secondary mode of AMOC variability is associated with interannual changes in the Labrador and GIN Seas, through the impact of the NAO on local surface density.

Numerical Analysis of Surge Phenomena, Currents, and Pollution Transport in the Sea of Azov

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, V. A.; Shul'ga, T. Ya.

2018-04-01

Dynamic processes and features of transformation of pollution in the Sea of Azov, caused by the action of a real wind and atmospheric pressure in the presence of stationary currents, are studied using a three-dimensional nonlinear hydrodynamic model. On the basis of numerical calculations, conclusions are reached about the influence of the velocities of stationary background currents on maximal deviations and the velocities of nonstationary currents generated by wind fields in the SKIRON model. It is shown that the combined effect of the constant wind and wind in the SKIRON atmospheric model leads to a significant expansion of the polluted area and to a longer dispersion time compared to the effects of solely stationary currents.

Analysis of sea ice and phytoplankton biomarkers in marine sediments from the Nordic Seas - a calibration study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro Rodriguez, A.; Cabedo Sanz, P.; Belt, S.; Brown, T.; Knies, J.; Husum, K.; Giraudeau, J.

2012-04-01

The work presented here is part of the Changing Arctic and SubArctic Environment program (EU CASE) which is an Initial Training Network (ITN) on climate change and marine environment and is an interdisciplinary project focussing on biological proxies. One of these proxies is the sea ice diatom biomarker IP25 which is a highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) alkene synthesised by some Arctic sea-ice diatoms and has been shown to be a specific, stable and sensitive proxy measure of Arctic sea ice when detected in underlying sediments (Belt et al., 2007). The current study focuses on two key elements: (1) An analytical calibration of IP25 isolated from marine sediments and purified using a range of chromatographic methods was conducted in order to improve the quantification of this biomarker in sediment extracts. (2) Analysis of >30 near-surface sediments from the Nordic Seas was carried out to quantify biomarkers previously suggested as indicators of open-water phytoplankton (brassicasterol) (Müller et al., 2011) and sea-ice (IP25) conditions (Belt et al., 2010). The outcomes of the biomarker analyses were used to make comparisons between proxy data and known sea ice conditions in the study area derived from satellite record over the last 20 years. The results of this study should inform longer timescale reconstructions of sea ice conditions in the Nordic sea in the future. Belt, S.T., Massé, G., Rowland. S.J., Poulin. M., Michel. C., LeBlanc. B., (2007). A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice : IP25 . Organic Geochemistry 38 (16-27). Belt, S. T., Vare, L. L., Massé, G., Manners, H. R., Price, J. C., MacLachlan, S. E., Andrews, J. T. & Schmidt, S. (2010) 'Striking similarities in temporal changes to spring sea ice occurrence across the central Canadian Arctic Archipelago over the last 7000 years', Quaternary Science Reviews, 29 (25-26), pp. 3489-3504. Müller, J., Wagner, A., Fahl, K., Stein, R., Prange, M., & Lohmann, G. (2011). Towards quantitative sea ice reconstructions in the northern North Atlantic: A combined biomarker and numerical modelling approach. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 306, 137-148.

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

2017-08-01

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios.

Analysis of sea use landscape pattern based on GIS: a case study in Huludao, China.

PubMed

Suo, Anning; Wang, Chen; Zhang, Minghui

2016-01-01

This study aims to analyse sea use landscape patterns on a regional scale based on methods of landscape ecology integrated with sea use spatial characteristics. Several landscape-level analysis indices, such as the dominance index, complex index, intensivity index, diversity index and sea congruency index, were established using Geographic Information System (GIS) and applied in Huludao, China. The results indicated that sea use landscape analysis indices, which were created based on the characteristics of sea use spatial patterns using GIS, are suitable to quantitatively describe the landscape patterns of sea use. They are operable tools for the landscape analysis of sea use. The sea use landscape in Huludao was dominated by fishing use with a landscape dominance index of 0.724. The sea use landscape is a complex mosaic with high diversity and plenty of fishing areas, as shown by the landscape complex index of 27.21 and the landscape diversity index of 1.25. Most sea use patches correspond to the marine functional zonation plan and the sea use congruency index is 0.89 in the fishing zone and 0.92 in the transportation zone.

Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene sea-level change from coral microatolls, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Botella, Alberic; Milne, Glenn; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Pothin, Virginie; Dussouillez, Philippe; Fleury, Jules; Fietzke, Jan

2017-04-01

Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the industrial revolution. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A step-like sea-level rise is evidenced between 6 and 3.9 ka leading to a short sea-level highstand of about a meter in amplitude between 3.9 and 3.6 ka. A sea-level fall, at an average rate of 0.3 mm.yr-1, is recorded between 3.6 and 1.2 ka when sea level approached its present position. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

A synthesized mating pheromone component increases adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) trap capture in management scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Nicholas S.; Siefkes, Michael J.; Wagner, C. Michael; Dawson, Heather; Wang, Huiyong; Steeves, Todd; Twohey, Michael; Li, Weiming

2013-01-01

Application of chemical cues to manipulate adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) behavior is among the options considered for new sea lamprey control techniques in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A male mating pheromone component, 7a,12a,24-trihydroxy-3-one-5a-cholan-24-sulfate (3kPZS), lures ovulated female sea lamprey upstream into baited traps in experimental contexts with no odorant competition. A critical knowledge gap is whether this single pheromone component influences adult sea lamprey behavior in management contexts containing free-ranging sea lampreys. A solution of 3kPZS to reach a final in-stream concentration of 10-12 mol·L-1 was applied to eight Michigan streams at existing sea lamprey traps over 3 years, and catch rates were compared between paired 3kPZS-baited and unbaited traps. 3kPZS-baited traps captured significantly more sexually immature and mature sea lampreys, and overall yearly trapping efficiency within a stream averaged 10% higher during years when 3kPZS was applied. Video analysis of a trap funnel showed that the likelihood of sea lamprey trap entry after trap encounter was higher when the trap was 3kPZS baited. Our approach serves as a model for the development of similar control tools for sea lamprey and other aquatic invaders.

GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borovikov, Anna; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

2018-01-01

The GEOS-5 AOGCM known as S2S-1.0 has been in service from June 2012 through January 2018 (Borovikov et al. 2017). The atmospheric component of S2S-1.0 is Fortuna-2.5, the same that was used for the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), but with adjusted parameterization of moist processes and turbulence. The ocean component is the Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4). The sea ice component is the Community Ice CodE, version 4 (CICE). The land surface model is a catchment-based hydrological model coupled to the multi-layer snow model. The AGCM uses a Cartesian grid with a 1 deg × 1.25 deg horizontal resolution and 72 hybrid vertical levels with the upper most level at 0.01 hPa. OGCM nominal resolution of the tripolar grid is 1/2 deg, with a meridional equatorial refinement to 1/4 deg. In the coupled model initialization, selected atmospheric variables are constrained with MERRA. The Goddard Earth Observing System integrated Ocean Data Assimilation System (GEOS-iODAS) is used for both ocean state and sea ice initialization. SST, T and S profiles and sea ice concentration were assimilated.

GIS applications for military operations in coastal zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fleming, S.; Jordan, T.; Madden, M.; Usery, E.L.; Welch, R.

2009-01-01

In order to successfully support current and future US military operations in coastal zones, geospatial information must be rapidly integrated and analyzed to meet ongoing force structure evolution and new mission directives. Coastal zones in a military-operational environment are complex regions that include sea, land and air features that demand high-volume databases of extreme detail within relatively narrow geographic corridors. Static products in the form of analog maps at varying scales traditionally have been used by military commanders and their operational planners. The rapidly changing battlefield of 21st Century warfare, however, demands dynamic mapping solutions. Commercial geographic information system (GIS) software for military-specific applications is now being developed and employed with digital databases to provide customized digital maps of variable scale, content and symbolization tailored to unique demands of military units. Research conducted by the Center for Remote Sensing and Mapping Science at the University of Georgia demonstrated the utility of GIS-based analysis and digital map creation when developing large-scale (1:10,000) products from littoral warfare databases. The methodology employed-selection of data sources (including high resolution commercial images and Lidar), establishment of analysis/modeling parameters, conduct of vehicle mobility analysis, development of models and generation of products (such as a continuous sea-land DEM and geo-visualization of changing shorelines with tidal levels)-is discussed. Based on observations and identified needs from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, formerly the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Department of Defense, prototype GIS models for military operations in sea, land and air environments were created from multiple data sets of a study area at US Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. Results of these models, along with methodologies for developing large-scale littoral warfare databases, aid the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency in meeting littoral warfare analysis, modeling and map generation requirements for US military organizations. ?? 2008 International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Inc. (ISPRS).

GIS applications for military operations in coastal zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, S.; Jordan, T.; Madden, M.; Usery, E. L.; Welch, R.

In order to successfully support current and future US military operations in coastal zones, geospatial information must be rapidly integrated and analyzed to meet ongoing force structure evolution and new mission directives. Coastal zones in a military-operational environment are complex regions that include sea, land and air features that demand high-volume databases of extreme detail within relatively narrow geographic corridors. Static products in the form of analog maps at varying scales traditionally have been used by military commanders and their operational planners. The rapidly changing battlefield of 21st Century warfare, however, demands dynamic mapping solutions. Commercial geographic information system (GIS) software for military-specific applications is now being developed and employed with digital databases to provide customized digital maps of variable scale, content and symbolization tailored to unique demands of military units. Research conducted by the Center for Remote Sensing and Mapping Science at the University of Georgia demonstrated the utility of GIS-based analysis and digital map creation when developing large-scale (1:10,000) products from littoral warfare databases. The methodology employed-selection of data sources (including high resolution commercial images and Lidar), establishment of analysis/modeling parameters, conduct of vehicle mobility analysis, development of models and generation of products (such as a continuous sea-land DEM and geo-visualization of changing shorelines with tidal levels)-is discussed. Based on observations and identified needs from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, formerly the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Department of Defense, prototype GIS models for military operations in sea, land and air environments were created from multiple data sets of a study area at US Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. Results of these models, along with methodologies for developing large-scale littoral warfare databases, aid the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency in meeting littoral warfare analysis, modeling and map generation requirements for US military organizations.

Estimation of the potential leakage of the chemical munitions based on two hydrodynamical models implemented for the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakacki, Jaromir; Golenko, Mariya

2014-05-01

Two hydrodynamical models (Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP)) have been implemented for the Baltic Sea area that consists of locations of the dumped chemical munitions during II War World. The models have been configured based on similar data source - bathymetry, initial conditions and external forces were implemented based on identical data. The horizontal resolutions of the models are also very similar. Several simulations with different initial conditions have been done. Comparison and analysis of the bottom currents from both models have been performed. Based on it estimating of the dangerous area and critical time have been done. Also lagrangian particle tracking and passive tracer were implemented and based on these results probability of the appearing dangerous doses and its time evolution have been presented. This work has been performed in the frame of the MODUM project financially supported by NATO.

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation in ash concentration simulations and tephra deposit daily forecasted at Mt. Etna, in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prestifilippo, Michele; Scollo, Simona; Tarantola, Stefano

2015-04-01

The uncertainty in volcanic ash forecasts may depend on our knowledge of the model input parameters and our capability to represent the dynamic of an incoming eruption. Forecasts help governments to reduce risks associated with volcanic eruptions and for this reason different kinds of analysis that help to understand the effect that each input parameter has on model outputs are necessary. We present an iterative approach based on the sequential combination of sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation procedure and Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analysis, applied to the lagrangian volcanic ash dispersal model PUFF. We modify the main input parameters as the total mass, the total grain-size distribution, the plume thickness, the shape of the eruption column, the sedimentation models and the diffusion coefficient, perform thousands of simulations and analyze the results. The study is carried out on two different Etna scenarios: the sub-plinian eruption of 22 July 1998 that formed an eruption column rising 12 km above sea level and lasted some minutes and the lava fountain eruption having features similar to the 2011-2013 events that produced eruption column high up to several kilometers above sea level and lasted some hours. Sensitivity analyses and uncertainty estimation results help us to address the measurements that volcanologists should perform during volcanic crisis to reduce the model uncertainty.

On the brine drainage and algal uptake controls of the nutrient supply to the sea ice interior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vancoppenolle, M.; Goosse, H.; de Montety, A.; Fichefet, T.; Tison, J.-L.

2009-04-01

Sea ice ecosystems are important components of the biogeochemical cycles (including carbon) and hence have a potential impact on climate. They are characterized by large stocks of micro-algae. Those algae (mostly diatoms) live in liquid inclusions of saline brine, which are encased within the solid ice matrix and require sustained nutrient supply to grow. In this study, we investigate the interactions between nutrients, brine motion and algal growth, using a one-dimensional (1D) sea ice model. The model includes (i) a classical formulation for snow and ice thermodynamics with explicit, reformulated brine physics and (ii) an idealized sea ice biological component, characterized by one single nutrient, namely dissolved silica (DSi), which stocks are reduced by a prescribed primary production. DSi is considered as a passive tracer dissolved within brine following fluid motion. The brine flow regime (advective, diffusive or turbulent) is computed as a function of environmental ice conditions. In winter, a Rayleigh number proposed by Notz and Worster (2008) is used to differentiate diffusion and convection. Ice salinity and DSi concentrations within the ice are solutions of 1D advection-diffusion equations over the variable volume brine network domain. The model is configured for a typical year of seasonal Weddell Sea ice. The simulated vertical salinity and tracer profiles as well as ice-ocean salt fluxes realistically agree with observations. Complex bio-physical interactions are simulated by the model. Analysis highlights the role of convection in the lowermost 5-10 cm of ice (gravity drainage), mixing highly saline, nutrient-depleted brine with comparatively fresh, nutrient-rich seawater. Hence, gravity drainage rejects salt to the ocean and provides nutrients to the ice interior. In turn, primary production and brine convection act synergetically to form a nutrient pump, which enhances the net ocean-to-ice DSi flux by 20-115%, compared to an abiotic situation. The other important simulated processes are winter and spring surface flooding of seawater which supplies nutrients near the ice surface, and melt water percolation which - if present in reality - would tend to flush nutrients back to the ocean in summer. The physical background for sea ice tracers developed here is general and could be used to simulate other sea ice tracers (e.g., dissolved organic matter, isotopes, gases, radio-nuclides, ...), constituting an improved modelling strategy for sea ice brine and ecosystem dynamics.

AG Channel Measurement and Modeling Results for Over-Sea Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matolak, David; Sun, Rouyu

2014-01-01

This report describes results from flight tests conducted in an over-sea environment, for the purpose of characterizing the air-to-ground (AG) channel, for future unmanned aircraft system (UAS) communication system analysis and design. These results are for the first of a set of several flight tests conducted in different ground site (GS) environments. An ultimate aim of all these tests is the development of models for the AG channel that can be used in communication system evaluation. In this report we provide measured results for propagation path loss, root-mean square delay spread (RMS-DS), and the correlation coefficient of the primary received signal components on the four antennas (two antennas for C-band, two for L-band). For path loss, the curved-earth two-ray model provides a reasonable fit to the measured data, altered by several dB at the shortest link distances by aircraft antenna pattern effects. This two-ray model also accounts for the majority of measured RMS-DS results of a few tens of nanoseconds, except for the occasional intermittent reflections from surface objects. These intermittent reflections yield RMS-DS values up to several hundred nanoseconds. For portions of the flight path that were over a harbor area highly populated with boats, the channel was found to be more "continuously dispersive," with RMS-DS reaching approximately 250 ns. A separate model will be developed for this over-harbor setting. The correlation coefficient results are still undergoing analysis; preliminary observations are that correlation between signals on the same-band antennas is generally large (>0.6) for the C-band straight flight paths, whereas for the L-band signals and for the oval-shaped flight paths the correlation is generally small (below 0.4). Inter-band correlations are typically very small, and are well modeled as zero-mean Gaussian in distribution, with a standard deviation less than 0.2. Hence the over-sea channel effects in the two bands can be considered uncorrelated, which will allow for good diversity gains in dual-band systems. We describe initial modeling approaches for the over-sea channel; complete models for this and the over-harbor setting will appear in a subsequent report.

Analysis of present and future potential compound flooding risk along the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevacqua, Emanuele; Maraun, Douglas; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Widmann, Martin; Manning, Colin; Vrac, Mathieu

2017-04-01

The coastal zone is the natural border between the sea and the mainland, and it is constantly under the influence of marine and land-based natural and human-induced pressure. Compound floods are extreme events occurring in coastal areas where the interaction of joint high sea level and large amount of precipitation causes extreme floodings. Typically the risk of flooding in coastal areas is defined analysing either sea level or precipitation driven floodings, however compound floods should be considered to avoid an underestimation of the risk. In the future, the human pressure at the coastal zone is expected to increase, urging for a comprehensive analysis of the compound flooding risk under different climate change scenarios. In this study we introduce the concept of "potential risk" as we investigate how often large amount of precipitation and high sea level may co-occur, and not the effective impact due to the interaction of these two hazards. The effective risk of compound flooding in a specific place depends also on the local orography and on the existing protections. The estimation of the potential risk of compound flooding is useful to individuate places where an effective risk of compound flooding may exist, and where further studies would be useful to get more precise information on the local risk. We estimate the potential risk of compound flooding along the European coastal zone incorporating the ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis for the past and present state, and the future projections from two RCP scenarios (namely the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) as derived from 8 CMIP5 models of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Sea level data are estimated by forcing the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow with 6-hourly wind and atmospheric pressure fields. Based on sea level (storm surge and astronomical tide) and precipitation joint occurrence analysis, a map of the potential compound flooding risk along the European coast is proposed and critical places with high potential risk are identified. For these critical places, we plan to asses the potential compound flood risk driven by coinciding extreme values of sea level and river discharge. Finally, we analyse the atmospheric large scale processes that lead to compound floods and their variation under future climate change scenarios.

High Resolution Simulations of Arctic Sea Ice, 1979-1993

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

William H. Lipscomb * PO[ARISSP To evaluate improvements in modelling Arctic sea ice, we compare results from two regional models at 1/120 horizontal...resolution. The first is a coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic Ocean, consisting of an ocean model (adapted from the Parallel Ocean Program, Los...Alamos National Laboratory [LANL]) and the "old" sea ice model . The second model uses the same grid but consists of an improved "new" sea ice model (LANL

Routine Mapping of the Snow Depth Distribution on Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, S. L.; Newman, T.; Richter-Menge, J.; Dattler, M.; Paden, J. D.; Yan, S.; Li, J.; Leuschen, C.

2016-12-01

The annual growth and retreat of the polar sea ice cover is influenced by the seasonal accumulation, redistribution and melt of snow on sea ice. Due to its high albedo and low thermal conductivity, snow is also a controlling parameter in the mass and energy budgets of the polar climate system. Under a changing climate scenario it is critical to obtain reliable and routine measurements of snow depth, across basin scales, and long time periods, so as to understand regional, seasonal and inter-annual variability, and the subsequent impacts on the sea ice cover itself. Moreover the snow depth distribution remains a significant source of uncertainty in the derivation of sea ice thickness from remote sensing measurements, as well as in numerical model predictions of future climate state. Radar altimeter systems flown onboard NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) mission now provide annual measurements of snow across both the Arctic and Southern Ocean ice packs. We describe recent advances in the processing techniques used to interpret airborne radar waveforms and produce accurate and robust snow depth results. As a consequence of instrument effects and data quality issues associated with the initial release of the OIB airborne radar data, the entire data set was reprocessed to remove coherent noise and sidelobes in the radar echograms. These reprocessed data were released to the community in early 2016, and are available for improved derivation of snow depth. Here, using the reprocessed data, we present the results of seven years of radar measurements collected over Arctic sea ice at the end of winter, just prior to melt. Our analysis provides the snow depth distribution on both seasonal and multi-year sea ice. We present the inter-annual variability in snow depth for both the Central Arctic and the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas. We validate our results via comparison with temporally and spatially coincident in situ measurements gathered during many of the OIB surveys. The results will influence future sensor suite development for sea ice studies, and they provide a new metric for comparison with other sea ice observations. Integrating these novel snow depth observations with modeling studies will help inform model development, and advance our predictive capabilities to help better understand how sea ice is responding to a changing climate.

Exploring image data assimilation in the prospect of high-resolution satellite oceanic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durán Moro, Marina; Brankart, Jean-Michel; Brasseur, Pierre; Verron, Jacques

2017-07-01

Satellite sensors increasingly provide high-resolution (HR) observations of the ocean. They supply observations of sea surface height (SSH) and of tracers of the dynamics such as sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface temperature (SST). In particular, the Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will provide measurements of the surface ocean topography at very high-resolution (HR) delivering unprecedented information on the meso-scale and submeso-scale dynamics. This study investigates the feasibility to use these measurements to reconstruct meso-scale features simulated by numerical models, in particular on the vertical dimension. A methodology to reconstruct three-dimensional (3D) multivariate meso-scale scenes is developed by using a HR numerical model of the Solomon Sea region. An inverse problem is defined in the framework of a twin experiment where synthetic observations are used. A true state is chosen among the 3D multivariate states which is considered as a reference state. In order to correct a first guess of this true state, a two-step analysis is carried out. A probability distribution of the first guess is defined and updated at each step of the analysis: (i) the first step applies the analysis scheme of a reduced-order Kalman filter to update the first guess probability distribution using SSH observation; (ii) the second step minimizes a cost function using observations of HR image structure and a new probability distribution is estimated. The analysis is extended to the vertical dimension using 3D multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and the probabilistic approach allows the update of the probability distribution through the two-step analysis. Experiments show that the proposed technique succeeds in correcting a multivariate state using meso-scale and submeso-scale information contained in HR SSH and image structure observations. It also demonstrates how the surface information can be used to reconstruct the ocean state below the surface.

The Influence of Climate Change on the Intensity of Ice Gouging of the Bottom by Hummocky Formations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogorodov, S. A.; Arkhipov, V. V.; Baranskaya, A. V.; Kokin, O. V.; Romanov, A. O.

2018-02-01

In the present work, several results of repeated sounding of bottom ice gouging microrelief within the area of the underwater pipeline crossing of the Baydaratskaya Bay, Kara Sea, are presented. Based on the results of the monitoring, as well as the analysis of literature sources and modeling it has been established that under the conditions of climate warming and sea ice reduction, the zone of the most intensive ice gouging is shifted landwards, on shallower water areas.

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

PubMed Central

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

2016-01-01

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979–2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

PubMed

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

2016-02-04

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

The contribution of sea-level rise to flooding in large river catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T. M.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.; Hu, A.; Simmer, C.

2012-12-01

Climate change is expected to both impact sea level rise as well as flooding. Our study focuses on the combined effect of climate change on upper catchment precipitation as well as on sea-level rise at the river mouths and the impact this will have on river flooding both at the coast and further upstream. We concentrate on the eight catchments of the Amazonas, Congo, Orinoco, Ganges/Brahmaputra/Meghna, Mississippi, St. Lawrence, Danube and Niger rivers. To assess the impact of climate change, upper catchment precipitation as well as monthly mean thermosteric sea-level rise at the river mouth outflow are taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. Continuous daily time series for average catchment precipitation and discharge are available for each of the catchments. To arrive at a future discharge time series, we used these observations to develop a simple statistical hydrological model which can be applied to the modelled future upper catchment precipitation values. The analysis of this surrogate discharge time series alone already yields significant changes in flood return levels as well as flood duration. Using the geometry of the river channel, the backwater effect of sea-level rise is incorporated in our analysis of both flood frequencies and magnitudes by calculating the effective additional discharge due to the increase in water level at the river mouth outflow, as well as its tapering impact upstream. By combining these effects, our results focus on the merged impact of changes in extreme precipitation with increases in river height due to sea-level rise at the river mouths. Judging from our preliminary results, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing late 21st century flooding in the respective river basins. In particular, we find that especially in countries with low elevation gradient, flood characteristics are impacted by changes in sea-level rise as far inland as 150 kilometers. Therefore, a larger population than the coastal inhabitants alone are exposed to risks of further projected increases of sea-level rise. A prime example for a megacity greatly put at risk by this is Dhaka City in Bangladesh, with a population of roughly 14 million people.

Modelling Local Sea-Breeze Flow and Associated Dispersion Patterns Over a Coastal Area in North-East Spain: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soler, M. R.; Arasa, R.; Merino, M.; Olid, M.; Ortega, S.

2011-07-01

The structure and evolution of the sea breeze in the north-west part of the Mediterranean (Catalonia, north-east Spain) is studied both experimentally and, predominantly, using numerical models to increase understanding of sea-breeze structure and three-dimensional (3D) pollution distributions in coastal environments. Sea-breeze components are modelled and analyzed using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Centre for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The results show that the growth and structure of the sea-breeze circulation is modulated by the synoptic flow and especially by the complex topography of the area. 3D pollution transport in a sea breeze is modelled by coupling the MM5 to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, with results indicating that topography and synoptic flow are the main factors modulating horizontal and vertical pollutant transport in sea-breeze episodes. In this way, horizontal dispersion is limited by the complex topography of the area, whilst the sea-breeze flow is intensified by anabatic upslope winds that contribute to vertical pollutant transport. The numerical model results also indicate that the sea-breeze circulation with a weak return flow at upper levels grows due to a synoptic onshore wind component. However, such a sea-breeze circulation is capable of transporting pollutants towards the coast.

Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, M.; Temmerman, S.

2009-01-01

We consider the response of marshland to accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise by utilizing two previously described numerical models of marsh elevation. In a model designed for the Scheldt Estuary (Belgium-SW Netherlands), a feedback between inundation depth and suspended sediment concentrations allows marshes to quickly adjust their elevation to a change in sea-level rise rate. In a model designed for the North Inlet Estuary (South Carolina), a feedback between inundation and vegetation growth allows similar adjustment. Although the models differ in their approach, we find that they predict surprisingly similar responses to sea-level change. Marsh elevations adjust to a step change in the rate of sea-level rise in about 100 years. In the case of a continuous acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, modeled accretion rates lag behind sea-level rise rates by about 20 years, and never obtain equilibrium. Regardless of the style of acceleration, the models predict approximately 6-14 cm of marsh submergence in response to historical sea-level acceleration, and 3-4 cm of marsh submergence in response to a projected scenario of sea-level rise over the next century. While marshes already low in the tidal frame would be susceptible to these depth changes, our modeling results suggest that factors other than historical sea-level acceleration are more important for observations of degradation in most marshes today.

Looking Back to the Future: Insight on Anthropocene beaches from Holocene and Pleistocene barriers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dougherty, A. J.; Choi, J. H.; Turney, C. S.; Dosseto, A.

2017-12-01

`Super' storms and accelerated rates of sea-level rise are forecast in the Anthropocene, but how coasts will respond (or even if they have started to be impacted) remain uncertain. The onset of this new anthropogenic age is considered mid-1900s when multiple indices including sea level exceed previous Holocene measurements. Centuries of sea surface elevation data, used to project an increase of up to 2m by 2100, show that the current rise started 200 years ago. Similar records of storms or shoreline evolution over these centennial time-scales do not exist. With empirical studies of coastal morphodynamics concentrated during decades of accelerated sea-level rise, present-day beaches can be considered Anthropocene features. To determine the future of vulnerable sandy shorelines, climate change scenarios of increased sea level and storm intensity have been combined with computer models integrating short-term process data with large-scale coastal evolution. The uncertainty in these models can be reduced with longer sea level and storm records as well as filling the gap between detailed beach profile/wave buoy data and generalized barrier stratigraphy. High-resolution chronostratigraphic models necessary to achieve this can be constructed using Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR), Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL). Combined GPR, OSL and LiDAR (GOaL) on prograded barriers enables analysis of shorelines back through time, by comparing behaviour since the onset of anthropogenic global warming to that in the preceding millennia. Extracting a record of coastal evolution prior to and since seas began to rise two centuries ago offers the opportunity to detect any difference indicating if/how shorelines have responded. In double barrier systems with composite Holocene and Pleistocene components GOaL can extend the Anthropocene record back to when seas were known to have been higher than today. To demonstrate the potential of GOaL, data collected over the past twenty years from North America and the South Pacific are presented; including some classic prograded barriers studied initially in the 1960s and extensively the 1980s. The resulting records of sea level, storms and sediment supply provide insight on, and input for modelling of, climate change and coastal evolution.

Characteristics and interpretation of fracture-filled gas hydrate: an example from the Ulleung Basin, East Sea of Korea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Myung Woong; Collett, Timothy S.

2013-01-01

Through the use of 2-D and 3-D seismic data, a total of thirteen sites were selected and drilled in the East Sea of Korea in 2010. A suite of logging-while-drilling (LWD) logs was acquired at each site. LWD logs from the UBGH2-3A well indicate significant gas hydrate in clay-bearing sediments including several zones with massive gas hydrate with a bulk density less than 1.0 g/m3 for depths between 5 and 103 m below the sea floor. The UBGH2-3A well was drilled on a seismically identified chimney structure with a mound feature at the sea floor. Average gas hydrate saturations estimated from the isotropic analysis of ring resistivity and P-wave velocity logs are 80 ± 13% and 47 ± 16%, respectively, whereas they are 46 ± 17% and 45 ± 16%, respectively from the anisotropic analysis. Modeling indicates that the upper part of chimney (between 5 and 45 m below sea floor [mbsf]) is characterized by gas hydrate filling near horizontal fractures (7° dip) and the lower part of chimney (between 45 and 103 mbsf) is characterized by gas hydrate filling high angle fractures on the basis of ring resistivity and P-wave velocity. The anisotropic analysis using P40H resistivity (phase shift resistivity at 32 mHz with 40 inch spacing) and the P-wave velocity yields a gas hydrate saturation of 46 ± 15% and 46 ± 15% respectively, similar to those estimated using ring resistivity and P-wave velocity, but with quite different fracture dip angles. Differences in vertical resolution, depth of investigation, and a finite fracture dimension relative to the tool separation appear to contribute to this discrepancy. Forward modeling of anisotropic resistivity and velocity are essential to identify gas hydrate in fractures and to estimate accurate gas hydrate amounts.

Quantitative developmental transcriptomes of the Mediterranean sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus.

PubMed

Gildor, Tsvia; Malik, Assaf; Sher, Noa; Avraham, Linor; Ben-Tabou de-Leon, Smadar

2016-02-01

Embryonic development progresses through the timely activation of thousands of differentially activated genes. Quantitative developmental transcriptomes provide the means to relate global patterns of differentially expressed genes to the emerging body plans they generate. The sea urchin is one of the classic model systems for embryogenesis and the models of its developmental gene regulatory networks are of the most comprehensive of their kind. Thus, the sea urchin embryo is an excellent system for studies of its global developmental transcriptional profiles. Here we produced quantitative developmental transcriptomes of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (P. lividus) at seven developmental stages from the fertilized egg to prism stage. We generated de-novo reference transcriptome and identified 29,817 genes that are expressed at this time period. We annotated and quantified gene expression at the different developmental stages and confirmed the reliability of the expression profiles by QPCR measurement of a subset of genes. The progression of embryo development is reflected in the observed global expression patterns and in our principle component analysis. Our study illuminates the rich patterns of gene expression that participate in sea urchin embryogenesis and provide an essential resource for further studies of the dynamic expression of P. lividus genes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Differentiation of dried sea cucumber products from different geographical areas by surface desorption atmospheric pressure chemical ionization mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Wu, Zhongchen; Chen, Huanwen; Wang, Weiling; Jia, Bin; Yang, Tianlin; Zhao, Zhanfeng; Ding, Jianhua; Xiao, Xuxian

2009-10-28

Without any sample pretreatment, mass spectral fingerprints of 486 dried sea cucumber slices were rapidly recorded in the mass range of m/z 50-800 by using surface desorption atmospheric pressure chemical ionization mass spectrometry (DAPCI-MS). A set of 162 individual sea cucumbers (Apostichopus japonicus Selenka) grown up in 3 different geographical regions (Weihai: 59 individuals, 177 slices; Yantai: 53 individuals, 159 slices; Dalian: 50 individuals, 150 slices;) in north China sea were successfully differentiated according to their habitats both by Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Soft Independent Modeling of Class Analogy (SIMCA) of the mass spectral raw data, demonstrating that DAPCI-MS is a practically convenient tool for high-throughput differentiation of sea cucumber products. It has been found that the difference between the body wall tissue and the epidermal tissue is heavily dependent on the habitats. The experimental data also show that the roughness of the sample surface contributes to the variance of the signal levels in a certain extent, but such variance does not fail the differentiation of the dried sea cucumber samples.

Interactions between Antarctic sea ice and large-scale atmospheric modes in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeter, Serena; Hobbs, Will; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

2017-03-01

The response of Antarctic sea ice to large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability varies according to sea ice sector and season. In this study, interannual atmosphere-sea ice interactions were explored using observations and reanalysis data, and compared with simulated interactions by models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulated relationships between atmospheric variability and sea ice variability generally reproduced the observed relationships, though more closely during the season of sea ice advance than the season of sea ice retreat. Atmospheric influence on sea ice is known to be strongest during advance, and it appears that models are able to capture the dominance of the atmosphere during advance. Simulations of ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions during retreat, however, require further investigation. A large proportion of model ensemble members overestimated the relative importance of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) compared with other modes of high southern latitude climate, while the influence of tropical forcing was underestimated. This result emerged particularly strongly during the season of sea ice retreat. The zonal patterns of the SAM in many models and its exaggerated influence on sea ice overwhelm the comparatively underestimated meridional influence, suggesting that simulated sea ice variability would become more zonally symmetric as a result. Across the seasons of sea ice advance and retreat, three of the five sectors did not reveal a strong relationship with a pattern of large-scale atmospheric variability in one or both seasons, indicating that sea ice in these sectors may be influenced more strongly by atmospheric variability unexplained by the major atmospheric modes, or by heat exchange in the ocean.

Vertical Structure of the Urban Boundary Layer over Marseille Under Sea-Breeze Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemonsu, Aude; Bastin, Sophie; Masson, Valéry; Drobinski, Philippe

2006-03-01

During the UBL-ESCOMPTE program (June July 2001), intensive observations were performed in Marseille (France). In particular, a Doppler lidar, located in the north of the city, provided radial velocity measurements on a 6-km radius area in the lowest 3 km of the troposphere. Thus, it is well adapted to document the vertical structure of the atmosphere above complex terrain, notably in Marseille, which is bordered by the Mediterranean sea and framed by numerous massifs. The present study focuses on the last day of the intensive observation period 2 (26 June 2001), which is characterized by a weak synoptic pressure gradient favouring the development of thermal circulations. Under such conditions, a complex stratification of the atmosphere is observed. Three-dimensional numerical simulations, with the Méso-NH atmospheric model including the town energy balance (TEB) urban parameterization, are conducted over south-eastern France. A complete evaluation of the model outputs was already performed at both regional and city scales. Here, the 250-m resolution outputs describing the vertical structure of the atmosphere above the Marseille area are compared to the Doppler lidar data, for which the spatial resolution is comparable. This joint analysis underscores the consistency between the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) observed by the Doppler lidar and that modelled by Méso-NH. The observations and simulations reveal the presence of a shallow sea breeze (SSB) superimposed on a deep sea breeze (DSB) above Marseille during daytime. Because of the step-like shape of the Marseille coastline, the SSB is organized in two branches of different directions, which converge above the city centre. The analysis of the 250-m wind fields shows evidence of the role of the local topography on the local dynamics. Indeed, the topography tends to reinforce the SSB while it weakens the DSB. The ABL is directly affected by the different sea-breeze circulations, while the urban effects appear to be negligible.

A wind comparison study using an ocean general circulation model for the 1997-1998 El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hackert, Eric C.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Murtugudde, Ragu

2001-02-01

Predictions of the 1997-1998 El Niño exhibited a wide range of forecast skill that were dependent, in part, on the wind-driven initial conditions for the ocean. In this study the results of a reduced gravity, primitive equation, sigma coordinate ocean general circulation model are compared and contrasted when forced by several different wind products for the 1997-1998 El Niño/La Niña. The different wind products include atmospheric model winds, satellite wind products, and a subjective analysis of ship and in situ winds. The model results are verified against fields of observed sea level anomalies from TOPEX/Poseidon data, sea surface temperature analyses, and subsurface temperature from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean buoy array. Depending on which validation data type one chooses, different wind products provide the best forcing fields for simulating the observed signal. In general, the model results forced by satellite winds provide the best simulations of the spatial and temporal signal of the observed sea level. This is due to the accuracy of the meridional gradient of the zonal wind stress component that these products provide. Differences in wind forcing also affect subsurface dynamics and thermodynamics. For example, the wind products with the weakest magnitude best reproduce the sea surface temperature (SST) signal in the eastern Pacific. For these products the mixed layer is shallower, and the thermocline is closer to the surface. For such simulations the subsurface thermocline variability influences the variation in SST more than in reality. The products with the greatest wind magnitude have a strong cold bias of >1.5°C in the eastern Pacific because of increased mixing. The satellite winds along with the analysis winds correctly reproduce the depth of the thermocline and the general subsurface temperature structure.

A cross-assessment of CCI-ECVs and RCSM simulations over the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Errico, Miriam; Planton, Serge; Nabat, Pierre

2017-04-01

A first objective of this study, conducted in the framework of the Climate Modelling Users Group (CMUG), one of the projects of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) program, is a cross-assessment of simulations of a Med-CORDEX regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM5) and a sub-set of atmosphere, marine and surface interrelated Satellite-Derived Essential Climate Variables (CCI-ECVs) (i.e. sea surface temperature, sea level, aerosols and soil moisture content) over the Mediterranean area. The consistency between the model and the CCI-ECVs is evaluated through the analysis of a climate specific event that can be observed with the CCI-ECVs, in atmospheric reanalysis and reproduced in the RCSM simulations. In this presentation we focus on the July 2006 heat wave that affected the western part of the Mediterranean continental and marine area. The application of a spectral nudging method using ERA-Interim reanalysis in our simulation allows to reproduce this event with a proper chronology. As a result we show that the consistency between the simulated model aerosol optical depth and the ECV products (being produced by the ESA Aerosol CCI project consortium) depends on the choice of the algorithm used to infer the variable from the satellite observations. In particular the heat wave main characteristics become consistent between the model and the satellite-derived observations for sea surface temperature, soil moisture and sea level. The link between the atmospheric circulation and the aerosols distribution is also investigated.

Development of Super-Ensemble techniques for ocean analyses: the Mediterranean Sea case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pistoia, Jenny; Pinardi, Nadia; Oddo, Paolo; Collins, Matthew; Korres, Gerasimos; Drillet, Yann

2017-04-01

Short-term ocean analyses for Sea Surface Temperature SST in the Mediterranean Sea can be improved by a statistical post-processing technique, called super-ensemble. This technique consists in a multi-linear regression algorithm applied to a Multi-Physics Multi-Model Super-Ensemble (MMSE) dataset, a collection of different operational forecasting analyses together with ad-hoc simulations produced by modifying selected numerical model parameterizations. A new linear regression algorithm based on Empirical Orthogonal Function filtering techniques is capable to prevent overfitting problems, even if best performances are achieved when we add correlation to the super-ensemble structure using a simple spatial filter applied after the linear regression. Our outcomes show that super-ensemble performances depend on the selection of an unbiased operator and the length of the learning period, but the quality of the generating MMSE dataset has the largest impact on the MMSE analysis Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) evaluated with respect to observed satellite SST. Lower RMSE analysis estimates result from the following choices: 15 days training period, an overconfident MMSE dataset (a subset with the higher quality ensemble members), and the least square algorithm being filtered a posteriori.

Sea level variations during rapid changing Arctic Ocean from tide gauge and satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Ling; Xu, Daohuan

2016-04-01

Sea level variations can introduce the useful information under the circumstance of the rapid changing Arctic. Based on tide gauge records and the satellite altimetry data in the Arctic Ocean, the sea level variations in the 20th century are analyzed with the stochastic dynamic method. The average secular trend of the sea level record is about 1 mm/yr, which is smaller than the global mean cited by the IPCC climate assessment report. The secular trend in the coastal region differs from that in the deep water. After the mid-1970s, a weak acceleration of sea level rise is found along the coasts of the Siberian and Aleutian Islands. Analysis of synchronous TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data indicates that the amplitude of the seasonal variation is less than that of the inter-annual variation, whose periods vary from 4.7 to 6 years. This relationship is different from that in the mid-latitudes. The climate indices are the pre-cursors of the sea level variations on multi-temporal scales. The model results show that while steric effects contribute significantly to the seasonal variation, the influence of atmospheric wind forcing is an important factor of sea level during ice free region.

Biology and air-sea gas exchange controls on the distribution of carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmittner, A.; Gruber, N.; Mix, A. C.; Key, R. M.; Tagliabue, A.; Westberry, T. K.

2013-09-01

Analysis of observations and sensitivity experiments with a new three-dimensional global model of stable carbon isotope cycling elucidate processes that control the distribution of δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the contemporary and preindustrial ocean. Biological fractionation and the sinking of isotopically light δ13C organic matter from the surface into the interior ocean leads to low δ13CDIC values at depths and in high latitude surface waters and high values in the upper ocean at low latitudes with maxima in the subtropics. Air-sea gas exchange has two effects. First, it acts to reduce the spatial gradients created by biology. Second, the associated temperature-dependent fractionation tends to increase (decrease) δ13CDIC values of colder (warmer) water, which generates gradients that oppose those arising from biology. Our model results suggest that both effects are similarly important in influencing surface and interior δ13CDIC distributions. However, since air-sea gas exchange is slow in the modern ocean, the biological effect dominates spatial δ13CDIC gradients both in the interior and at the surface, in contrast to conclusions from some previous studies. Calcium carbonate cycling, pH dependency of fractionation during air-sea gas exchange, and kinetic fractionation have minor effects on δ13CDIC. Accumulation of isotopically light carbon from anthropogenic fossil fuel burning has decreased the spatial variability of surface and deep δ13CDIC since the industrial revolution in our model simulations. Analysis of a new synthesis of δ13CDIC measurements from years 1990 to 2005 is used to quantify preformed and remineralized contributions as well as the effects of biology and air-sea gas exchange. The model reproduces major features of the observed large-scale distribution of δ13CDIC as well as the individual contributions and effects. Residual misfits are documented and analyzed. Simulated surface and subsurface δ13CDIC are influenced by details of the ecosystem model formulation. For example, inclusion of a simple parameterization of iron limitation of phytoplankton growth rates and temperature-dependent zooplankton grazing rates improves the agreement with δ13CDIC observations and satellite estimates of phytoplankton growth rates and biomass, suggesting that δ13C can also be a useful test of ecosystem models.

COSMO-SkyMed measurements in precipitation over the sea: analysis of Louisiana summer thunderstorms by simultaneous weather radar observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberto, N.; Baldini, L.; Gorgucci, E.; Facheris, L.; Chandrasekar, V.

2012-04-01

Radar signatures of rain cells are investigated using X-band synthetic aperture radar (X-SAR) images acquired from COSMO-SkyMed constellation over oceans off the coast of Louisiana in summer 2010 provided by ASI archive. COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) monitoring of Deepwater Horizon oil spill provided a big amount of data during the period April-September 2010 and in July-August when several thunderstorms occurred in that area. In X-SAR images, radar signatures of rain cells over the sea usually consist of irregularly shaped bright and dark patches. These signatures originate from 1) the scattering and attenuation of radiation by hydrometers in the rain cells and 2) the modification of the sea roughness induced by the impact of raindrops and by wind gusts associated with rain cell. However, the interpretation of precipitation signatures in X-SAR images is not completely straightforward, especially over sea. Coincident measurements from ground based radars and an electromagnetic (EM) model predicting radar returns from the sea surface corrugated by rainfall are used to support the analysis. A dataset consisting of 4 CSK images has been collected over Gulf of Mexico while a WSR-88D NEXRAD S-band Doppler radar (KLIX) located in New Orleans was scanning the nearby portion of ocean. Terrestrial measurements have been used to reconstruct the component of X-SAR returns due to precipitation by modifying the known technique applied on measurements over land (Fritz et al. 2010, Baldini et al. 2011). Results confirm that the attenuation signature in X-SAR images collected over land, particularly pronounced in the presence of heavy precipitation cells, can be related to the S-band radar reflectivity integrated along the same path. The Normalized Radar Cross Section (NRCS) of land is considered to vary usually up to a few dBs in case of rain but with strong dependency on the specific type and conditions of land cover. While the NRCS of sea surface in clear weather condition can be considered as constant, in case of rain, at X-SAR incidence angles, it exhibits a dependence to precipitation event due the combined effects of corrugation due to the impinging raindrops and to the surface wind. Therefore, when retrieving of X-SAR NRCS in precipitation over the sea, this effect must be accounted for and can be quantified based on the precipitation event using a simple NRCS surface model. In this work, an EM model based on Bahar's Full Wave Model is used for evaluating such NRCS depending on polarization, frequency and incidence angle for different values of wind velocity and the root mean square height of the corrugation induced by rainfall. The reconstruction of X-SAR returns in precipitation is finally obtained by joint utilization of volume reflectivity and attenuation estimated from KLIX and the sea NRCS model.

Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renault, Lionel; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Warner, John C.; Gomez, Marta; Vizoso, Guillermo; Tintore, Joaquin

2012-01-01

The coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea are one of the most challenging places for ocean forecasting. This region is exposed to severe storms events that are of short duration. During these events, significant air-sea interactions, strong winds and large sea-state can have catastrophic consequences in the coastal areas. To investigate these air-sea interactions and the oceanic response to such events, we implemented the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System simulating a severe storm in the Mediterranean Sea that occurred in May 2010. During this event, wind speed reached up to 25 m.s-1 inducing significant sea surface cooling (up to 2°C) over the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and along the storm track, and generating surface waves with a significant height of 6 m. It is shown that the event, associated with a cyclogenesis between the Balearic Islands and the GoL, is relatively well reproduced by the coupled system. A surface heat budget analysis showed that ocean vertical mixing was a major contributor to the cooling tendency along the storm track and in the GoL where turbulent heat fluxes also played an important role. Sensitivity experiments on the ocean-atmosphere coupling suggested that the coupled system is sensitive to the momentum flux parameterization as well as air-sea and air-wave coupling. Comparisons with available atmospheric and oceanic observations showed that the use of the fully coupled system provides the most skillful simulation, illustrating the benefit of using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model for the assessment of these storm events.

Development and implementation of an integrated program for control of sea lampreys in the St. Marys River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schleen, Larry P.; Christie, Gavin C.; Heinrich, John W.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Young, Robert J.; Morse, Terry J.; Lavis, Dennis S.; Bills, Terry D.; Johnson, James E.; Ebener, Mark P.

2003-01-01

The development and implementation of a strategy for control of sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in the St. Marys River formed the basis for rehabilitation of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and other fish in Lakes Huron and Michigan. The control strategy was implemented by the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) upon recommendations by the interagency Sea Lamprey Integration Committee, and many managers and scientists from United States and Canada federal, state, provincial, tribal, and private institutions. Analyses of benefits vs. costs of control options and modeling of the cumulative effects on abundance of parasitic-phase sea lampreys and lake trout produced a strategy that involved an integration of control technologies that included long- and short-term measures. The longterm measures included interference with sea lamprey reproduction by the trapping and removal of spawning-phase sea lampreys from the river and the sterilization and release of the trapped male sea lampreys. The theoretical reduction of larvae produced in the river from these two combined techniques averaged almost 90% during 1997 to 1999. Lampricide treatment with granular Bayluscide of 880 ha of plots densely populated with larvae occurred during 1998, 1999, and 2001 because modeling showed the sooner parasitic-phase sea lamprey populations declined in Lake Huron the greater the improvement for restoration of lake trout during 1995 to 2015. Post-treatment assessments showed about 55% of the larvae had been removed from the river. An adaptive assessment plan predicted high probability of detection of control effects because of many available indicators. The GLFC will face several critical decisions beyond 2001, and initiated a decision analysis project to aid in those decisions.

Global coastal flood hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilander, Dirk; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Haag, Arjen; Verlaan, Martin; Luo, Tianyi

2017-04-01

Over 10% of the world's population lives in low-lying coastal areas (up to 10m elevation). Many of these areas are prone to flooding from tropical storm surges or extra-tropical high sea levels in combination with high tides. A 1 in 100 year extreme sea level is estimated to expose 270 million people and 13 trillion USD worth of assets to flooding. Coastal flood risk is expected to increase due to drivers such as ground subsidence, intensification of tropical and extra-tropical storms, sea level rise and socio-economic development. For better understanding of the hazard and drivers to global coastal flood risk, a globally consistent analysis of coastal flooding is required. In this contribution we present a comprehensive global coastal flood hazard mapping study. Coastal flooding is estimated using a modular inundation routine, based on a vegetation corrected SRTM elevation model and forced by extreme sea levels. Per tile, either a simple GIS inundation routine or a hydrodynamic model can be selected. The GIS inundation method projects extreme sea levels to land, taking into account physical obstructions and dampening of the surge level land inwards. For coastlines with steep slopes or where local dynamics play a minor role in flood behavior, this fast GIS method can be applied. Extreme sea levels are derived from the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Future sea level projections are based on probabilistic sea level rise for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The approach is validated against observed flood extents from ground and satellite observations. The results will be made available through the online Aqueduct Global Flood Risk Analyzer of the World Resources Institute.

High Aerosol Concentration cases measured at Vessel Gisang 1 over the Yellow Sea during KORUS-AQ Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryoo, S. B.; Yun Kyu, L.; Lee, H. C.; Cha, J. W.

2017-12-01

ADAM-Haze (Asian Dust and Haze Model) model of NIMS (National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) /KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration) was used to assess the high aerosol mass concentration cases for the cruise area using research vessel Gisang 1 over the Yellow sea during KORUS-AQ (Korea-United States Air Quality Study) campaign in 2016. In order to simplify the analysis of the route of the air mass, it is classified into five categories according to the regional characteristics of the pollution sources.(I: Around inner Mongolia and Beijing regions in China, II: Around Liaoning province in China and North Korea, III: Around South Korea and Japan, IV: Around East China sea, V: Around Shandong Peninsula and Shanghai regions in China.) using by the HYSPLIT 4 model developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / Air Resources Laboratory. The most frequent airborne trajectories were category V, which accounted for 32% of the total. The category I, II, and III also accounted for 19%, 21% and 26% , respectively. That means the atmospheric aerosol over the Yellow sea during the campaign was affected about 70% from China and 26% from South Korea. To clearly investigate the transport process, ADAM-Haze model separately ran for dust and non-dust cases over the Yellow sea during the cruise. For example, the model showed the Asian dust influenced the vessel observations with pollutants on May 7 2016 in I category and strong haze from Shandong peninsula in China attributed to them on May 29 2016 in V category. In addition, the comparison of the vessel observation with the model out is under study and the source apportionment will be implemented by using numerical method such as DDM (Decoupled Direct Method) calculation. Therefore, we will show you the results for the comparison and DDM calculation as well as detail results of the evaluating model performance in the conference.

Statistical prediction of September Arctic Sea Ice minimum based on stable teleconnections with global climate and oceanic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad information interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability depends on various climate parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September minimum sea ice extent for every year. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of September sea ice minimum show a relatively reduced skill, here it is shown that more than 97% (r = 0.98) of the September sea ice extent can predicted three months in advance by using previous months conditions via a multiple linear regression model based on global sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature at 850hPa (TT850), surface winds and sea ice extent persistence. The statistical model is based on the identification of regions with stable teleconnections between the predictors (climatological parameters) and the predictand (here sea ice extent). The results based on our statistical model contribute to the sea ice prediction network for the sea ice outlook report (https://www.arcus.org/sipn) and could provide a tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

Snow accumulation on Arctic sea ice: is it a matter of how much or when?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, M.; Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Markus, T.

2017-12-01

Snow on sea ice plays an important, yet sometimes opposing role in sea ice mass balance depending on the season. In autumn and winter, snow reduces the heat exchange from the ocean to the atmosphere, reducing sea ice growth. In spring and summer, snow shields sea ice from solar radiation, delaying sea ice surface melt. Changes in snow depth and distribution in any season therefore directly affect the mass balance of Arctic sea ice. In the western Arctic, a decreasing trend in spring snow depth distribution has been observed and attributed to the combined effect of peak snowfall rates in autumn and the coincident delay in sea ice freeze-up. Here, we build on this work and present an in-depth analysis on the relationship between snow accumulation and the timing of sea ice freeze-up across all Arctic regions. A newly developed two-layer snow model is forced with eight reanalysis precipitation products to: (1) identify the seasonal distribution of snowfall accumulation for different regions, (2) highlight which regions are most sensitive to the timing of sea ice freeze-up with regard to snow accumulation, and (3) show, if precipitation were to increase, which regions would be most susceptible to thicker snow covers. We also utilize a comprehensive sensitivity study to better understand the factors most important in controlling winter/spring snow depths, and to explore what could happen to snow depth on sea ice in a warming Arctic climate.

Characterizing and minimizing the effects of noise in tide gauge time series: relative and geocentric sea level rise around Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgette, Reed J.; Watson, Christopher S.; Church, John A.; White, Neil J.; Tregoning, Paul; Coleman, Richard

2013-08-01

We quantify the rate of sea level rise around the Australian continent from an analysis of tide gauge and Global Positioning System (GPS) data sets. To estimate the underlying linear rates of sea level change in the presence of significant interannual and decadal variability (treated here as noise), we adopt and extend a novel network adjustment approach. We simultaneously estimate time-correlated noise as well as linear model parameters and realistic uncertainties from sea level time series at individual gauges, as well as from time-series differences computed between pairs of gauges. The noise content at individual gauges is consistent with a combination of white and time-correlated noise. We find that the noise in time series from the western coast of Australia is best described by a first-order Gauss-Markov model, whereas east coast stations generally exhibit lower levels of time-correlated noise that is better described by a power-law process. These findings suggest several decades of monthly tide gauge data are needed to reduce rate uncertainties to <0.5 mm yr-1 for undifferenced single site time series with typical noise characteristics. Our subsequent adjustment strategy exploits the more precise differential rates estimated from differenced time series from pairs of tide gauges to estimate rates among the network of 43 tide gauges that passed a stability analysis. We estimate relative sea level rates over three temporal windows (1900-2011, 1966-2011 and 1993-2011), accounting for covariance between time series. The resultant adjustment reduces the rate uncertainty across individual gauges, and partially mitigates the need for century-scale time series at all sites in the network. Our adjustment reveals a spatially coherent pattern of sea level rise around the coastline, with the highest rates in northern Australia. Over the time periods beginning in 1900, 1966 and 1993, we find weighted average rates of sea level rise of 1.4 ± 0.6, 1.7 ± 0.6 and 4.6 ± 0.8 mm yr-1, respectively. While the temporal pattern of the rate estimates is consistent with acceleration in sea level rise, it may not be significant, as the uncertainties for the shorter analysis periods may not capture the full range of temporal variation. Analysis of the available continuous GPS records that have been collected within 80 km of Australian tide gauges suggests that rates of vertical crustal motion are generally low, with the majority of sites showing motion statistically insignificant from zero. A notable exception is the significant component of vertical land motion that contributes to the rapid rate of relative sea level change (>4 mm yr-1) at the Hillarys site in the Perth area. This corresponds to crustal subsidence that we estimate in our GPS analysis at a rate of -3.1 ± 0.7 mm yr-1, and appears linked to groundwater withdrawal. Uncertainties on the rates of vertical displacement at GPS sites collected over a decade are similar to what we measure in several decades of tide gauge data. Our results motivate continued observations of relative sea level using tide gauges, maintained with high-accuracy terrestrial and continuous co-located satellite-based surveying.

Dysferlin is essential for endocytosis in the sea star oocyte.

PubMed

Oulhen, Nathalie; Onorato, Thomas M; Ramos, Isabela; Wessel, Gary M

2014-04-01

Dysferlin is a calcium-binding transmembrane protein involved in membrane fusion and membrane repair. In humans, mutations in the dysferlin gene are associated with muscular dystrophy. In this study, we isolated plasma membrane-enriched fractions from full-grown immature oocytes of the sea star, and identified dysferlin by mass spectrometry analysis. The full-length dysferlin sequence is highly conserved between human and the sea star. We learned that in the sea star Patiria miniata, dysferlin RNA and protein are expressed from oogenesis to gastrulation. Interestingly, the protein is highly enriched in the plasma membrane of oocytes. Injection of a morpholino against dysferlin leads to a decrease of endocytosis in oocytes, and to a developmental arrest during gastrulation. These results suggest that dysferlin is critical for normal endocytosis during oogenesis and for embryogenesis in the sea star and that this animal may be a useful model for studying the relationship of dysferlin structure as it relates to its function. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dysferlin is essential for endocytosis in the sea star oocyte

PubMed Central

Oulhen, Nathalie; Onorato, Thomas M.; Ramos, Isabela; Wessel, Gary M.

2014-01-01

Dysferlin is a calcium-binding transmembrane protein involved in membrane fusion and membrane repair. In humans, mutations in the dysferlin gene are associated with muscular dystrophy. In this study, we isolated plasma membrane-enriched fractions from full-grown immature oocytes of the sea star, and identified dysferlin by mass spectrometry analysis. The full-length dysferlin sequence is highly conserved between human and the sea star. We learned that in the sea star Patiria miniata, dysferlin RNA and protein are expressed from oogenesis to gastrulation. Interestingly, the protein is highly enriched in the plasma membrane of oocytes. Injection of a morpholino against dysferlin leads to a decrease of endocytosis in oocytes, and to a developmental arrest during gastrulation. These results suggest that dysferlin is critical for normal endocytosis during oogenesis and for embryogenesis in the sea star and that this animal may be a useful model for studying the relationship of dysferlin structure as it relates to its function. PMID:24368072

Fourier transform near-infrared spectroscopy application for sea salt quality evaluation.

PubMed

Galvis-Sánchez, Andrea C; Lopes, João Almeida; Delgadillo, Ivonne; Rangel, António O S S

2011-10-26

Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy in diffuse reflectance mode was explored with the objective of discriminating sea salts according to their quality type (traditional salt vs "flower of salt") and geographical origin (Atlantic vs Mediterranean). Sea salts were also analyzed in terms of Ca(2+), Mg(2+), K(+), alkalinity, and sulfate concentrations to support spectroscopic results. High concentrations of Mg(2+) and K(+) characterized Atlantic samples, while a high Ca(2+) content was observed in traditional sea salts. A partial least-squares discriminant analysis model considering the 8500-7500 cm(-1) region permitted the discrimination of salts by quality types. The regions 4650-4350 and 5900-5500 cm(-1) allowed salts classification according to their geographical origin. It was possible to classify correctly 85.3 and 94.8% of the analyzed samples according to the salt type and to the geographical origin, respectively. These results demonstrated that NIR spectroscopy is a suitable and very efficient tool for sea salt quality evaluation.

Hierarchical modeling of bycatch rates of sea turtles in the western North Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, B.; Sullivan, P.J.; Epperly, S.; Morreale, S.J.

2008-01-01

Previous studies indicate that the locations of the endangered loggerhead Caretta caretta and critically endangered leatherback Dermochelys coriacea sea turtles are influenced by water temperatures, and that incidental catch rates in the pelagic longline fishery vary by region. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to examine the effects of environmental variables, including water temperature, on the number of sea turtles captured in the US pelagic longline fishery in the western North Atlantic. The modeling structure is highly flexible, utilizes a Bayesian model selection technique, and is fully implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The number of sea turtles captured is modeled as a zero-inflated Poisson distribution and the model incorporates fixed effects to examine region-specific differences in the parameter estimates. Results indicate that water temperature, region, bottom depth, and target species are all significant predictors of the number of loggerhead sea turtles captured. For leatherback sea turtles, the model with only target species had the most posterior model weight, though a re-parameterization of the model indicates that temperature influences the zero-inflation parameter. The relationship between the number of sea turtles captured and the variables of interest all varied by region. This suggests that management decisions aimed at reducing sea turtle bycatch may be more effective if they are spatially explicit. ?? Inter-Research 2008.

Influence of stochastic sea ice parametrization on climate and the role of atmosphere–sea ice–ocean interaction

PubMed Central

Juricke, Stephan; Jung, Thomas

2014-01-01

The influence of a stochastic sea ice strength parametrization on the mean climate is investigated in a coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model. The results are compared with an uncoupled simulation with a prescribed atmosphere. It is found that the stochastic sea ice parametrization causes an effective weakening of the sea ice. In the uncoupled model this leads to an Arctic sea ice volume increase of about 10–20% after an accumulation period of approximately 20–30 years. In the coupled model, no such increase is found. Rather, the stochastic perturbations lead to a spatial redistribution of the Arctic sea ice thickness field. A mechanism involving a slightly negative atmospheric feedback is proposed that can explain the different responses in the coupled and uncoupled system. Changes in integrated Antarctic sea ice quantities caused by the stochastic parametrization are generally small, as memory is lost during the melting season because of an almost complete loss of sea ice. However, stochastic sea ice perturbations affect regional sea ice characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere, both in the uncoupled and coupled model. Remote impacts of the stochastic sea ice parametrization on the mean climate of non-polar regions were found to be small. PMID:24842027

The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, M.; Brandefelt, J.; Nilsson, J.

2013-04-01

In the present work the Arctic sea ice in the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climates are analysed and compared on the basis of climate-model results from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) and phase 3 (PMIP3). The PMIP3 models generally simulate smaller and thinner sea-ice extents than the PMIP2 models both for the pre-industrial and the mid-Holocene climate. Further, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 models all simulate a smaller and thinner Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial control climate. The PMIP3 models also simulate thinner winter sea ice than the PMIP2 models. The winter sea-ice extent response, i.e. the difference between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climate, varies among both PMIP2 and PMIP3 models. Approximately one half of the models simulate a decrease in winter sea-ice extent and one half simulates an increase. The model-mean summer sea-ice extent is 11 % (21 %) smaller in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate simulations in the PMIP2 (PMIP3). In accordance with the simple model of Thorndike (1992), the sea-ice thickness response to the insolation change from the pre-industrial to the mid-Holocene is stronger in models with thicker ice in the pre-industrial climate simulation. Further, the analyses show that climate models for which the Arctic sea-ice responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are similar may simulate rather different sea-ice responses to the change in solar forcing between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial. For two specific models, which are analysed in detail, this difference is found to be associated with differences in the simulated cloud fractions in the summer Arctic; in the model with a larger cloud fraction the effect of insolation change is muted. A sub-set of the mid-Holocene simulations in the PMIP ensemble exhibit open water off the north-eastern coast of Greenland in summer, which can provide a fetch for surface waves. This is in broad agreement with recent analyses of sea-ice proxies, indicating that beach-ridges formed on the north-eastern coast of Greenland during the early- to mid-Holocene.

Development of a Summarized Health Index (SHI) for use in predicting survival in sea turtles.

PubMed

Li, Tsung-Hsien; Chang, Chao-Chin; Cheng, I-Jiunn; Lin, Suen-Chuain

2015-01-01

Veterinary care plays an influential role in sea turtle rehabilitation, especially in endangered species. Physiological characteristics, hematological and plasma biochemistry profiles, are useful references for clinical management in animals, especially when animals are during the convalescence period. In this study, these factors associated with sea turtle surviving were analyzed. The blood samples were collected when sea turtles remained alive, and then animals were followed up for surviving status. The results indicated that significantly negative correlation was found between buoyancy disorders (BD) and sea turtle surviving (p < 0.05). Furthermore, non-surviving sea turtles had significantly higher levels of aspartate aminotranspherase (AST), creatinine kinase (CK), creatinine and uric acid (UA) than surviving sea turtles (all p < 0.05). After further analysis by multiple logistic regression model, only factors of BD, creatinine and UA were included in the equation for calculating summarized health index (SHI) for each individual. Through evaluation by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the result indicated that the area under curve was 0.920 ± 0.037, and a cut-off SHI value of 2.5244 showed 80.0% sensitivity and 86.7% specificity in predicting survival. Therefore, the developed SHI could be a useful index to evaluate health status of sea turtles and to improve veterinary care at rehabilitation facilities.

Development of a Summarized Health Index (SHI) for Use in Predicting Survival in Sea Turtles

PubMed Central

Li, Tsung-Hsien; Chang, Chao-Chin; Cheng, I-Jiunn; Lin, Suen-Chuain

2015-01-01

Veterinary care plays an influential role in sea turtle rehabilitation, especially in endangered species. Physiological characteristics, hematological and plasma biochemistry profiles, are useful references for clinical management in animals, especially when animals are during the convalescence period. In this study, these factors associated with sea turtle surviving were analyzed. The blood samples were collected when sea turtles remained alive, and then animals were followed up for surviving status. The results indicated that significantly negative correlation was found between buoyancy disorders (BD) and sea turtle surviving (p < 0.05). Furthermore, non-surviving sea turtles had significantly higher levels of aspartate aminotranspherase (AST), creatinine kinase (CK), creatinine and uric acid (UA) than surviving sea turtles (all p < 0.05). After further analysis by multiple logistic regression model, only factors of BD, creatinine and UA were included in the equation for calculating summarized health index (SHI) for each individual. Through evaluation by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the result indicated that the area under curve was 0.920 ± 0.037, and a cut-off SHI value of 2.5244 showed 80.0% sensitivity and 86.7% specificity in predicting survival. Therefore, the developed SHI could be a useful index to evaluate health status of sea turtles and to improve veterinary care at rehabilitation facilities. PMID:25803431

Observational Evidence of a Hemispheric-wide Ice-ocean Albedo Feedback Effect on Antarctic Sea-ice Decay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nihashi, Sohey; Cavalieri, Donald J.

2007-01-01

The effect of ice-ocean albedo feedback (a kind of ice-albedo feedback) on sea-ice decay is demonstrated over the Antarctic sea-ice zone from an analysis of satellite-derived hemispheric sea ice concentration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) atmospheric data for the period 1979-2001. Sea ice concentration in December (time of most active melt) correlates better with the meridional component of the wind-forced ice drift (MID) in November (beginning of the melt season) than the MID in December. This 1 month lagged correlation is observed in most of the Antarctic sea-ice covered ocean. Daily time series of ice , concentration show that the ice concentration anomaly increases toward the time of maximum sea-ice melt. These findings can be explained by the following positive feedback effect: once ice concentration decreases (increases) at the beginning of the melt season, solar heating of the upper ocean through the increased (decreased) open water fraction is enhanced (reduced), leading to (suppressing) a further decrease in ice concentration by the oceanic heat. Results obtained fi-om a simple ice-ocean coupled model also support our interpretation of the observational results. This positive feedback mechanism explains in part the large interannual variability of the sea-ice cover in summer.