Insights into the origin and distribution of biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest hot spot: a statistical phylogeographic study using a low-dispersal organism.

PubMed

Álvarez-Presas, M; Sánchez-Gracia, A; Carbayo, F; Rozas, J; Riutort, M

2014-06-01

The relative importance of the processes that generate and maintain biodiversity is a major and controversial topic in evolutionary biology with large implications for conservation management. The Atlantic Forest of Brazil, one of the world's richest biodiversity hot spots, is severely damaged by human activities. To formulate an efficient conservation policy, a good understanding of spatial and temporal biodiversity patterns and their underlying evolutionary mechanisms is required. With this aim, we performed a comprehensive phylogeographic study using a low-dispersal organism, the land planarian species Cephaloflexa bergi (Platyhelminthes, Tricladida). Analysing multi-locus DNA sequence variation under the Approximate Bayesian Computation framework, we evaluated two scenarios proposed to explain the diversity of Southern Atlantic Forest (SAF) region. We found that most sampled localities harbour high levels of genetic diversity, with lineages sharing common ancestors that predate the Pleistocene. Remarkably, we detected the molecular hallmark of the isolation-by-distance effect and little evidence of a recent colonization of SAF localities; nevertheless, some populations might result from very recent secondary contacts. We conclude that extant SAF biodiversity originated and has been shaped by complex interactions between ancient geological events and more recent evolutionary processes, whereas Pleistocene climate changes had a minor influence in generating present-day diversity. We also demonstrate that land planarians are an advantageous biological model for making phylogeographic and, particularly, fine-scale evolutionary inferences, and propose appropriate conservation policies.

Genetic Patterns of Myrceugenia correifolia, a Rare Species of Fog-Dependent Forests of Mediterranean Chile: Is It a Climatic Relict?

PubMed

Pérez, Fernanda; Hinojosa, Luis F; Peralta, Gioconda; Montenegro, Paz; Irarrázabal, Carla; Cossio, Michel

2017-01-01

Rare species frequently occur in areas with microclimatic conditions that are atypical for their regions, but that were more common in the past, and that probably have operated as climatic refugia for a long time. Myrceugenia correifolia is a rare arboreal species that grows in deep canyons and hilltops of the Coast Range of north-central Chile between 30° and 35°S. In the northern edge of its distribution M. correifolia grows in small patches of fog-dependent forest surrounding by xeric vegetation. These forest formations are thought to be remnants of an ancient and continuous rainforest that according to some authors became fragmented during aridization of the Neogene (Neogene relict) and to others during warm-dry cycles of the Pleistocene (glacial relicts). Here we asked whether the northernmost populations of M. correifolia are Neogene relicts, glacial relicts, or the result of a recent northward colonization. To answer this question we examined genetic diversity and population divergence of M. correifolia using microsatellite markers, tested various competing population history scenarios with an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method, and complemented these data with ecological niche modeling (ENM). We detected three genetic clusters with a distinctive latitudinal pattern (north, center, and south) and high levels of differentiation ( F ST = 0.36). Demographic inference supported an admixture event 31 kya between two populations that diverged from an ancient population 139 kya. The admixture time coincides with the beginning of a period of wet conditions in north-central Chile that extended from 33 to 19 kya and was preceded by dry and cold conditions. These results suggest that increased precipitation during glacial periods triggered northward expansion of the range of M. correifolia , with subsequent admixture between populations that remained separated during interglacial periods. Accordingly, ENM models showed that suitable habitats for M. correifolia in north-central Chile were larger and less fragmented during the Last Glacial Maximum than at present, suggesting that northernmost populations of this species are glacial relicts.

Genetic Patterns of Myrceugenia correifolia, a Rare Species of Fog-Dependent Forests of Mediterranean Chile: Is It a Climatic Relict?

PubMed Central

Pérez, Fernanda; Hinojosa, Luis F.; Peralta, Gioconda; Montenegro, Paz; Irarrázabal, Carla; Cossio, Michel

2017-01-01

Rare species frequently occur in areas with microclimatic conditions that are atypical for their regions, but that were more common in the past, and that probably have operated as climatic refugia for a long time. Myrceugenia correifolia is a rare arboreal species that grows in deep canyons and hilltops of the Coast Range of north-central Chile between 30° and 35°S. In the northern edge of its distribution M. correifolia grows in small patches of fog-dependent forest surrounding by xeric vegetation. These forest formations are thought to be remnants of an ancient and continuous rainforest that according to some authors became fragmented during aridization of the Neogene (Neogene relict) and to others during warm-dry cycles of the Pleistocene (glacial relicts). Here we asked whether the northernmost populations of M. correifolia are Neogene relicts, glacial relicts, or the result of a recent northward colonization. To answer this question we examined genetic diversity and population divergence of M. correifolia using microsatellite markers, tested various competing population history scenarios with an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method, and complemented these data with ecological niche modeling (ENM). We detected three genetic clusters with a distinctive latitudinal pattern (north, center, and south) and high levels of differentiation (FST = 0.36). Demographic inference supported an admixture event 31 kya between two populations that diverged from an ancient population 139 kya. The admixture time coincides with the beginning of a period of wet conditions in north-central Chile that extended from 33 to 19 kya and was preceded by dry and cold conditions. These results suggest that increased precipitation during glacial periods triggered northward expansion of the range of M. correifolia, with subsequent admixture between populations that remained separated during interglacial periods. Accordingly, ENM models showed that suitable habitats for M. correifolia in north-central Chile were larger and less fragmented during the Last Glacial Maximum than at present, suggesting that northernmost populations of this species are glacial relicts. PMID:28729869

Using Bayesian neural networks to classify forest scenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vehtari, Aki; Heikkonen, Jukka; Lampinen, Jouko; Juujarvi, Jouni

1998-10-01

We present results that compare the performance of Bayesian learning methods for neural networks on the task of classifying forest scenes into trees and background. Classification task is demanding due to the texture richness of the trees, occlusions of the forest scene objects and diverse lighting conditions under operation. This makes it difficult to determine which are optimal image features for the classification. A natural way to proceed is to extract many different types of potentially suitable features, and to evaluate their usefulness in later processing stages. One approach to cope with large number of features is to use Bayesian methods to control the model complexity. Bayesian learning uses a prior on model parameters, combines this with evidence from a training data, and the integrates over the resulting posterior to make predictions. With this method, we can use large networks and many features without fear of overfitting. For this classification task we compare two Bayesian learning methods for multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks: (1) The evidence framework of MacKay uses a Gaussian approximation to the posterior weight distribution and maximizes with respect to hyperparameters. (2) In a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method due to Neal, the posterior distribution of the network parameters is numerically integrated using the MCMC method. As baseline classifiers for comparison we use (3) MLP early stop committee, (4) K-nearest-neighbor and (5) Classification And Regression Tree.

A Bayesian Belief Network approach to assess the potential of non wood forest products for small scale forest owners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacik, Harald; Huber, Patrick; Hujala, Teppo; Kurtilla, Mikko; Wolfslehner, Bernhard

2015-04-01

It is an integral element of the European understanding of sustainable forest management to foster the design and marketing of forest products, non-wood forest products (NWFPs) and services that go beyond the production of timber. Despite the relevance of NWFPs in Europe, forest management and planning methods have been traditionally tailored towards wood and wood products, because most forest management models and silviculture techniques were developed to ensure a sustained production of timber. Although several approaches exist which explicitly consider NWFPs as management objectives in forest planning, specific models are needed for the assessment of their production potential in different environmental contexts and for different management regimes. Empirical data supporting a comprehensive assessment of the potential of NWFPs are rare, thus making development of statistical models particularly problematic. However, the complex causal relationships between the sustained production of NWFPs, the available ecological resources, as well as the organizational and the market potential of forest management regimes are well suited for knowledge-based expert models. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are a kind of probabilistic graphical model that have become very popular to practitioners and scientists mainly due to the powerful probability theory involved, which makes BBNs suitable to deal with a wide range of environmental problems. In this contribution we present the development of a Bayesian belief network to assess the potential of NWFPs for small scale forest owners. A three stage iterative process with stakeholder and expert participation was used to develop the Bayesian Network within the frame of the StarTree Project. The group of participants varied in the stages of the modelling process. A core team, consisting of one technical expert and two domain experts was responsible for the entire modelling process as well as for the first prototype of the network structure, including nodes and relationships. A top-level causal network, was further decomposed to sub level networks. Stakeholder participation including a group of experts from different related subject areas was used in model verification and validation. We demonstrate that BBNs can be used to transfer expert knowledge from science to practice and thus have the ability to contribute to improved problem understanding of non-expert decision makers for a sustainable production of NWFPs.

Bridging the gap between ecosystem theory and forest watershed management

Treesearch

Jackson Webster; Wayne Swank; James Vose; Jennifer Knoepp; Katherine Elliott

2014-01-01

The history of forests and logging in North America provides a back drop for our study of Watershed (WS) 7. Prior to European settlement, potentially commercial forests covered approximately 45% of North America, but not all of it was the pristine, ancient forest that some have imagined. Prior to 1492, Native Americans had extensive settlements throughout eastern...

Trade-off between light availability and soil fertility determine refugial conditions for the relict light-demanding species in lowland forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiedrzyński, Marcin; Kurowski, Józef Krzysztof; Kiedrzyńska, Edyta

2017-11-01

Identifying potential refugial habitats in the face of rapid environmental change is a challenge faced by scientists and nature conservation managers. Relict populations and refugial habitats are the model objects in those studies. Based on the example of Actaea europaea from Central Poland, we analyse the habitat factors influencing relict populations of continental, light-demanding species in lowland forests and examine which habitats of studied species corresponding most closely to ancient vegetation. Our results indicate that the current refugial habitats of Actaea europaea include not only communities which are very similar to ancient open forest but also forests with a closed canopy. Although the populations are influenced by nitrogen and light availability, the co-occurrence of these two factors in forest communities is limited by dense canopy formation by hornbeam and beech trees on fertile soils and in more humid conditions. Our findings indicate that the future survival of relict, light-demanding communities in lowland forests requires low-intensity disturbances to be performed in tree-stands, according to techniques, which imitate traditional forests management.

Forest ecosystems of temperate climatic regions: from ancient use to climate change.

PubMed

Gilliam, Frank S

2016-12-01

871 I. 871 II. 874 III. 875 IV. 878 V. 882 884 References 884 SUMMARY: Humans have long utilized resources from all forest biomes, but the most indelible anthropogenic signature has been the expanse of human populations in temperate forests. The purpose of this review is to bring into focus the diverse forests of the temperate region of the biosphere, including those of hardwood, conifer and mixed dominance, with a particular emphasis on crucial challenges for the future of these forested areas. Implicit in the term 'temperate' is that the predominant climate of these forest regions has distinct cyclic, seasonal changes involving periods of growth and dormancy. The specific temporal patterns of seasonal change, however, display an impressive variability among temperate forest regions. In addition to the more apparent current anthropogenic disturbances of temperate forests, such as forest management and conversion to agriculture, human alteration of temperate forests is actually an ancient phenomenon, going as far back as 7000 yr before present (bp). As deep-seated as these past legacies are for temperate forests, all current and future perturbations, including timber harvesting, excess nitrogen deposition, altered species' phenologies, and increasing frequency of drought and fire, must be viewed through the lens of climate change. © 2016 The Author. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

A Bayesian approach to multisource forest area estimation

Treesearch

Andrew O. Finley

2007-01-01

In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply, demand is increasing for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small area estimates of forest and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based approach for...

Forest hydrology in China: introduction to the featured collection

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Shirong Liu; Zhiqiang Zhang; Xiaohua Wei

2008-01-01

Chinese people have long recognized the importance of forests and water in environment, societal development, and civilization. The philosophical thoughts are well reflected in many ancient paintings and stories that picture the harmony of forests, water, and mountains, and in fact, well-respected Chinese rulers are known for their contributions to harnessing large...

Wildlife and vegetation of unmanaged Douglas-Fir forests.

Treesearch

Leonard F. Ruggiero; Keith B. Aubry; Andrew B. Carey; Mark H. Huff

1991-01-01

Old-growth Douglas-fir forests in the Pacific Northwest—and their most celebrated inhabitant, the northern spotted owl—have engendered an acrimonious controversy that has been raging for over a decade. Should ancient forests be protected for their aesthetic appeal and because they provide a broad range of ecological values, including the most amenable...

Ptolemy's Britain and Ireland: A New Digital Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abshire, Corey; Durham, Anthony; Gusev, Dmitri A.; Stafeyev, Sergey K.

2018-05-01

In this paper, we expand application of our mathematical methods for translating ancient coordinates from the classical Geography by Claudius Ptolemy into modern coordinates from India and Arabia to Britain and Ireland, historically important islands on the periphery of the ancient Roman Empire. The methods include triangulation and flocking with subsequent Bayesian correction. The results of our work can be conveniently visualized in modern GIS tools, such as ArcGIS, QGIS, and Google Earth. The enhancements we have made include a novel technique for handling tentatively identified points. We compare the precision of reconstruction achieved for Ptolemy's Britain and Ireland with the precisions that we had computed earlier for his India before the Ganges and three provinces of Arabia. We also provide improved validation and comparison amongst the methods applied. We compare our results with the prior work, while utilizing knowledge from such important ancient sources as the Antonine Itinerary, Tabula Peutingeriana, and the Ravenna Cosmography. The new digital reconstruction of Claudius Ptolemy's Britain and Ireland presented in this paper, along with the accompanying linguistic analysis of ancient toponyms, contributes to improvement of understanding of our cultural cartographic heritage by making it easier to study the ancient world using the popular and accessible GIS programs.

Hydrology-oriented forest management trade-offs. A modeling framework coupling field data, simulation results and Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Garcia-Prats, Alberto; González-Sanchis, María; Del Campo, Antonio D; Lull, Cristina

2018-10-15

Hydrology-oriented forest management sets water as key factor of the forest management for adaptation due to water is the most limiting factor in the Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The aim of this study was to apply Bayesian Network modeling to assess potential indirect effects and trade-offs when hydrology-oriented forest management is applied to a real Mediterranean forest ecosystem. Water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and forest fire risk were included in the modeling framework. Field data from experimental plots were employed to calibrate and validate the mechanistic Biome-BGCMuSo model that simulates the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere. Many other 50-year long scenarios with different conditions to the ones measured in the field experiment were simulated and the outcomes employed to build the Bayesian Network in a linked chain of models. Hydrology-oriented forest management was very positive insofar as more water was made available to the stand because of an interception reduction. This resource was made available to the stand, which increased the evapotranspiration and its components, the soil water content and a slightly increase of deep percolation. Conversely, Stemflow was drastically reduced. No effect was observed on Runof due to the thinning treatment. The soil organic carbon content was also increased which in turn caused a greater respiration. The long-term effect of the thinning treatment on the LAI was very positive. This was undoubtedly due to the increased vigor generated by the greater availability of water and nutrients for the stand and the reduction of competence between trees. This greater activity resulted in an increase in GPP and vegetation carbon, and therefore, we would expect a higher carbon sequestration. It is worth emphasizing that this extra amount of water and nutrients was taken up by the stand and did not entail any loss of nutrients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial Bayesian belief networks as a planning decision tool for mapping ecosystem services trade-offs on forested landscapes.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Redin, Julen; Luque, Sandra; Poggio, Laura; Smith, Ron; Gimona, Alessandro

2016-01-01

An integrated methodology, based on linking Bayesian belief networks (BBN) with GIS, is proposed for combining available evidence to help forest managers evaluate implications and trade-offs between forest production and conservation measures to preserve biodiversity in forested habitats. A Bayesian belief network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents variables and their dependencies through specifying probabilistic relationships. In spatially explicit decision problems where it is difficult to choose appropriate combinations of interventions, the proposed integration of a BBN with GIS helped to facilitate shared understanding of the human-landscape relationships, while fostering collective management that can be incorporated into landscape planning processes. Trades-offs become more and more relevant in these landscape contexts where the participation of many and varied stakeholder groups is indispensable. With these challenges in mind, our integrated approach incorporates GIS-based data with expert knowledge to consider two different land use interests - biodiversity value for conservation and timber production potential - with the focus on a complex mountain landscape in the French Alps. The spatial models produced provided different alternatives of suitable sites that can be used by policy makers in order to support conservation priorities while addressing management options. The approach provided provide a common reasoning language among different experts from different backgrounds while helped to identify spatially explicit conflictive areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The politics of forestry [book review

Treesearch

Brian Sturtevant

2010-01-01

This book is a call to action--nearly a call to arms--designed to put a face on the plight of ancient forests both within the United States (US) and world-wide. In the author's words, "The purpose of this book is to explain how forests work, to discuss the fate of forests, and to suggest principles to their proper management." It accomplishes this with...

Regeneration of native California oaks in the forest zone [Abstract

Treesearch

P.M. McDonald

1999-01-01

The two native California oaks in the forest zone of California are California black oak (Quercus kelloggii Newb.) and tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus [Hook. and Arn.] Rehd.). Both are ancient species with many adaptations to withstand California's Mediterranean climate, but some weaknesses as well. Both sprout vigorously...

Ancient DNA Reveals Prehistoric Gene-Flow from Siberia in the Complex Human Population History of North East Europe

PubMed Central

Der Sarkissian, Clio; Balanovsky, Oleg; Brandt, Guido; Khartanovich, Valery; Buzhilova, Alexandra; Koshel, Sergey; Zaporozhchenko, Valery; Gronenborn, Detlef; Moiseyev, Vyacheslav; Kolpakov, Eugen; Shumkin, Vladimir; Alt, Kurt W.; Balanovska, Elena; Cooper, Alan; Haak, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

North East Europe harbors a high diversity of cultures and languages, suggesting a complex genetic history. Archaeological, anthropological, and genetic research has revealed a series of influences from Western and Eastern Eurasia in the past. While genetic data from modern-day populations is commonly used to make inferences about their origins and past migrations, ancient DNA provides a powerful test of such hypotheses by giving a snapshot of the past genetic diversity. In order to better understand the dynamics that have shaped the gene pool of North East Europeans, we generated and analyzed 34 mitochondrial genotypes from the skeletal remains of three archaeological sites in northwest Russia. These sites were dated to the Mesolithic and the Early Metal Age (7,500 and 3,500 uncalibrated years Before Present). We applied a suite of population genetic analyses (principal component analysis, genetic distance mapping, haplotype sharing analyses) and compared past demographic models through coalescent simulations using Bayesian Serial SimCoal and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Comparisons of genetic data from ancient and modern-day populations revealed significant changes in the mitochondrial makeup of North East Europeans through time. Mesolithic foragers showed high frequencies and diversity of haplogroups U (U2e, U4, U5a), a pattern observed previously in European hunter-gatherers from Iberia to Scandinavia. In contrast, the presence of mitochondrial DNA haplogroups C, D, and Z in Early Metal Age individuals suggested discontinuity with Mesolithic hunter-gatherers and genetic influx from central/eastern Siberia. We identified remarkable genetic dissimilarities between prehistoric and modern-day North East Europeans/Saami, which suggests an important role of post-Mesolithic migrations from Western Europe and subsequent population replacement/extinctions. This work demonstrates how ancient DNA can improve our understanding of human population movements across Eurasia. It contributes to the description of the spatio-temporal distribution of mitochondrial diversity and will be of significance for future reconstructions of the history of Europeans. PMID:23459685

Ancient geographical gaps and paleo-climate shape the phylogeography of an endemic bird in the sky islands of southern India.

PubMed

Robin, V V; Sinha, Anindya; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2010-10-13

Sky islands, formed by the highest reaches of mountain tracts physically isolated from one another, represent one of the biodiversity-rich regions of the world. Comparative studies of geographically isolated populations on such islands can provide valuable insights into the biogeography and evolution of species on these islands. The Western Ghats mountains of southern India form a sky island system, where the relationship between the island structure and the evolution of its species remains virtually unknown despite a few population genetic studies. We investigated how ancient geographic gaps and glacial cycles have partitioned genetic variation in modern populations of a threatened endemic bird, the White-bellied Shortwing Brachypteryx major, across the montane Shola forests on these islands and also inferred its evolutionary history. We used bayesian and maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic and population-genetic analyses on data from three mitochondrial markers and one nuclear marker (totally 2594 bp) obtained from 33 White-bellied Shortwing individuals across five islands. Genetic differentiation between populations of the species correlated with the locations of deep valleys in the Western Ghats but not with geographical distance between these populations. All populations revealed demographic histories consistent with population founding and expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Given the level of genetic differentiation north and south of the Palghat Gap, we suggest that these populations be considered two different taxonomic species. Our results show that the physiography and paleo-climate of this region historically resulted in multiple glacial refugia that may have subsequently driven the evolutionary history and current population structure of this bird. The first avian genetic study from this biodiversity hotspot, our results provide insights into processes that may have impacted the speciation and evolution of the endemic fauna of this region.

The value of an urban forest

Treesearch

Richard A. Hallett

2013-01-01

What good is a tree or a forest in a city? Or more precisely how much is it worth to the people of the city? In ancient Greece, gods were worshipped in groves of trees and trees were sacred. In Germany the Linden tree was believed to help unearth the truth and judicial meetings were held under a Linden tree. Today, in our industrial forests we value timber based on...

Geospatial revolution and remote sensing LiDAR in Mesoamerican archaeology

PubMed Central

Chase, Arlen F.; Fisher, Christopher T.; Leisz, Stephen J.; Weishampel, John F.

2012-01-01

The application of light detection and ranging (LiDAR), a laser-based remote-sensing technology that is capable of penetrating overlying vegetation and forest canopies, is generating a fundamental shift in Mesoamerican archaeology and has the potential to transform research in forested areas world-wide. Much as radiocarbon dating that half a century ago moved archaeology forward by grounding archaeological remains in time, LiDAR is proving to be a catalyst for an improved spatial understanding of the past. With LiDAR, ancient societies can be contextualized within a fully defined landscape. Interpretations about the scale and organization of densely forested sites no longer are constrained by sample size, as they were when mapping required laborious on-ground survey. The ability to articulate ancient landscapes fully permits a better understanding of the complexity of ancient Mesoamerican urbanism and also aids in modern conservation efforts. The importance of this geospatial innovation is demonstrated with newly acquired LiDAR data from the archaeological sites of Caracol, Cayo, Belize and Angamuco, Michoacán, Mexico. These data illustrate the potential of technology to act as a catalytic enabler of rapid transformational change in archaeological research and interpretation and also underscore the value of on-the-ground archaeological investigation in validating and contextualizing results. PMID:22802623

Geospatial revolution and remote sensing LiDAR in Mesoamerican archaeology.

PubMed

Chase, Arlen F; Chase, Diane Z; Fisher, Christopher T; Leisz, Stephen J; Weishampel, John F

2012-08-07

The application of light detection and ranging (LiDAR), a laser-based remote-sensing technology that is capable of penetrating overlying vegetation and forest canopies, is generating a fundamental shift in Mesoamerican archaeology and has the potential to transform research in forested areas world-wide. Much as radiocarbon dating that half a century ago moved archaeology forward by grounding archaeological remains in time, LiDAR is proving to be a catalyst for an improved spatial understanding of the past. With LiDAR, ancient societies can be contextualized within a fully defined landscape. Interpretations about the scale and organization of densely forested sites no longer are constrained by sample size, as they were when mapping required laborious on-ground survey. The ability to articulate ancient landscapes fully permits a better understanding of the complexity of ancient Mesoamerican urbanism and also aids in modern conservation efforts. The importance of this geospatial innovation is demonstrated with newly acquired LiDAR data from the archaeological sites of Caracol, Cayo, Belize and Angamuco, Michoacán, Mexico. These data illustrate the potential of technology to act as a catalytic enabler of rapid transformational change in archaeological research and interpretation and also underscore the value of on-the-ground archaeological investigation in validating and contextualizing results.

Characterizing species at risk. II: Using Bayesian belief networks as decision support tools to determine species conservation categories under the Northwest Forest Plan.

Treesearch

B.G. Marcot; P.A. Hohenlohe; S. Morey; R. Holmes; R. Molina; M.C. Turley; M.H. Huff; J.A. Laurence

2006-01-01

We developed decision-aiding models as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) that represented evaluation guidelines used to determine the appropriate conservation of hundreds of potentially rare species on federally-administered lands in the Pacific Northwest United States. The models were used in a structured assessment and paneling procedure as part of an adaptive...

Old-growth Wooded Pasture in the Ozarks

Treesearch

David H. Jurney; David W. Stahle

2004-01-01

Forests in the Ozarks are ancient: the dominance and density of their various arboreal and herbaceous species have fluctuated over time in relation to climatic change and cultural influences. This study examines the nature of the pre-European forest composition in the Ozarks through studies of geology and soils, General Land Office surveys, archeology, and...

Ancient Maya impacts on the Earth's surface: An Early Anthropocene analog?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, Tim; Luzzadder-Beach, Sheryl; Cook, Duncan; Dunning, Nicholas; Kennett, Douglas J.; Krause, Samantha; Terry, Richard; Trein, Debora; Valdez, Fred

2015-09-01

The measure of the "Mayacene," a microcosm of the Early Anthropocene that occurred from c. 3000 to 1000 BP, comes from multiple Late Quaternary paleoenvironmental records. We synthesized the evidence for Maya impacts on climate, vegetation, hydrology and the lithosphere, from studies of soils, lakes, floodplains, wetlands and other ecosystems. Maya civilization had likely altered local to regional ecosystems and hydrology by the Preclassic Period (3000-1700 BP), but these impacts waned by 1000 BP. They altered ecosystems with vast urban and rural infrastructure that included thousands of reservoirs, wetland fields and canals, terraces, field ridges, and temples. Although there is abundant evidence that indicates the Maya altered their forests, even at the large urban complex of Tikal as much as 40% of the forest remained intact through the Classic period. Existing forests are still influenced by ancient Maya forest gardening, particularly by the large expanses of ancient stone structures, terraces, and wetland fields that form their substrates. A few studies suggest deforestation and other land uses probably also warmed and dried regional climate by the Classic Period (1700-1100 BP). A much larger body of research documents the Maya impacts on hydrology, in the form of dams, reservoirs, canals, eroded soils and urban design for runoff. Another metric of the "Mayacene" are paleosols, which contain chemical evidence for human occupation, revealed by high phosphorus concentrations and carbon isotope ratios of C4 species like maize in the C3-dominated tropical forest ecosystem. Paleosol sequences exhibit "Maya Clays," a facies that reflects a glut of rapidly eroded sediments that overlie pre-Maya paleosols. This stratigraphy is conspicuous in many dated soil profiles and marks the large-scale Maya transformation of the landscape in the Preclassic and Classic periods. Some of these also have increased phosphorous and carbon isotope evidence of C4 species. We synthesize and provide new evidence of Maya-period soil strata that show elevated carbon isotope ratios (δ13C), indicating the presence of C4 species in typical agricultural sites. This is often the case in ancient Maya wetland systems, which also have abundant evidence for the presence of several other economic plant species. The "Mayacene" of c. 3000 to 1000 BP was thus a patchwork of cities, villages, roads, urban heat islands, intensive and extensive farmsteads, forests and orchards. Today, forests and wetlands cover much of the Maya area but like so many places, these are now under the onslaught of the deforestation, draining, and plowing of the present Anthropocene.

Putting us on the Map: Remote Sensing Investigation of the Ancient Maya Landscape

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, Thomas L.; Saturno, William; Irwin, Daniel E.

2004-01-01

A common problem for archaeologists studying ancient settlement in the Maya Lowlands is overcoming the dense vegetation in order to obtain an accurate regional perspective of the presence of archaeological sites, their exact locations and their overall extents. Most often this is done by extensive ground surveys in which many individuals chop parallel paths through the vegetation in search of sites. Once a site is found an effort is made to mark its location on a regional map and to explore its perimeter. Obtaining locational information has been made dramatically easier in recent years with the advent of improved Global Positioning Systems (GPS), however the process of initial identification of sites and the determination of their borders is exceedingly labor intensive and has remained relatively unchanged since the beginning of settlement surveys in the region in the 1950's. Currently, we are revolutionizing settlement survey in the Maya Lowlands by using remotely sensed data from IKONOS, Quickbird, and Eol, satellites. The Ancient Maya built their cities, towns and even their smallest hamlets using excavated limestone and lime plasters. We propose that the decay of these structures provides a unique microenvironment for the growth of vegetation as the levels of moisture and nutrition within the ruins vary substantially from those in the surrounding forest. These microenvironmental differences on the ground are likewise represented by compositional differences in the forest canopy both in the species present and in leaf color (representing moisture/nutritional stress) visible through the analysis of high- resolution satellite data. In this way the detailed analysis of forest composition can reveal a detailed picture of the ancient settlements that lie beneath it. Preliminary examinations using this technique have been very successful and we are refining these techniques in order to efficiently comprehend the details of Ancient Maya settlement in the Lowlands.

Putting Us on the Map: Remote Sensing Investigation of the Ancient Maya Landscape

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, Thomas L.; Saturno, William

2004-01-01

A common problem for archaeologists studying ancient settlement in the Maya Lowlands is overcoming the dense vegetation in order to obtain an accurate regional perspective of the presence of archaeological sites, their exact locations and their overall extents. Most often this is done by extensive ground surveys in which many individuals chop parallel paths through the vegetation in search of sites. Once a site is found an effort is made to mark its location on a regional map and to explore its perimeter. Obtaining locational information has been made dramatically easier in recent years with the advent of improved Global Positioning Systems (GPS), however the process of initial identification of sites and the determination of their borders is exceedingly labor intensive and has remained relatively unchanged since the beginning of settlement surveys in the region in the 1950 s. Currently, we are revolutionizing settlement survey in the Maya Lowlands by using remotely sensed data from IKONOS, Quickbird, and Eo 1, satellites as well as airborne AIRSAR radar data. The Ancient Maya built their cities, towns and even their smallest hamlets using excavated limestone and lime plasters. We propose that the decay of these structures provides a unique microenvironment for the growth of vegetation as the levels of moisture and nutrition within the ruins vary substantially from those in the surrounding forest. These microenvironmental differences on the ground are likewise represented by compositional differences in the forest canopy both in the species present and in leaf color (representing moisture/nutritional stress) visible through the analysis of high-resolution satellite data. In this way the detailed analysis of forest composition can reveal a detailed picture of the ancient settlements that lie beneath it. Preliminary examinations using this technique have been very successful and we are refining these techniques in order to efficiently comprehend the details of Ancient Maya settlement in the Lowlands.

Satellite spectral data and archaeological reconnaissance in western Greece

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, Frederick A.; Bauer, M. E.; Cullen, Brenda C.

1991-01-01

A Macro-geographical reconnaissance of the Western Peloponnesos adopts spectral signatures taken by Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper as a new instrument of archaeological survey in Greece. Ancient records indicate that indigenous resources contributed to the prosperity of the region. Natural resources and Ancient, Medieval, and Pre-modern Folklife in the Western Peloponnesos describes the principal lines of research. For a supervised classification of attested ancient resources, a variety of biophysical surface features were pinpointed: stone quarries, coal mines, forests of oak and silver fir, terracotta-producing clay beds, crops, and various wild but exploited shrubs such as flax.

Discovering the Ancient Maya from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, T. L.

2008-01-01

The Pet6n region of northern Guatemala contains some of the most significant Mayan archeological sites in Latin America. It was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared. Remote sensing technology is helping to locate and map ancient Maya sites that are threatened today by accelerating deforestation and looting. Thematic Mapper, IKONOS, and QuickBird satellite, and airborne STAR-3i and AIRSAR radar data, combined with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, are successfully detecting ancient Maya features such as sites, roadways, canals, and water reservoirs. Satellite imagery is also being used to map the bajos, which are seasonally flooded swamps that cover over 40% of the land surface. Through the use of various airborne and satellite sensor systems we have been able to detect and map ancient causeways, temples, reservoirs, and land forms, and locate these features on the ground through GPS technology. Recently, we have discovered that there is a strong relationship between a tropical forest vegetation signature in satellite imagery and the location of archeological sites. We believe that the use of limestone and lime plasters in ancient Maya construction affects the moisture, nutrition, and plant species of the surface vegetation. We have mapped these vegetation signatures in the imagery and verified through field survey that they are indicative of archeological sites. Through the use of remote sensing and GIS technology it is possible to identify unrecorded archeological features in a dense tropical forest environment and monitor these cultural features for their protection.

Discovering the Ancient Maya From Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, T. L.

2007-01-01

The Peten region of northern Guatemala contains some of the most significant Mayan archeological sites in Latin America. It was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared. Remote sensing technology is helping to locate and map ancient Maya sites that are threatened today by accelerating deforestation and looting. Thematic Mapper, IKONOS, and QuickBird satellite, and airborne STAR-3i and AIRSAR radar data, combined with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, are successfully detecting ancient Maya features such as sites, roadways, canals, and water reservoirs. Satellite imagery is also being used to map the bajos, which are seasonally flooded swamps that cover over 40% of the land surface. Through the use of various airborne and satellite sensor systems we have been able to detect and map ancient causeways, temples, reservoirs, and land forms, and locate these features on the ground through GPS technology. Recently, we have discovered that there is a strong relationship between a tropical forest vegetation signature in satellite imagery and the location of archeological sites. We believe that the use o f limestone and lime plasters in ancient Maya construction affects the moisture, nutrition, and plant species of the surface vegetation. We have mapped these vegetation signatures in the imagery and verified through field survey that they are indicative of archeological sites. Through the use of remote sensing and GIS technology it is possible to identify unrecorded archeological features in a dense tropical forest environment and monitor these cultural features for their protection.

Isotopic reconstruction of the weaning process in the archaeological population of Canímar Abajo, Cuba: A Bayesian probability mixing model approach

PubMed Central

Roksandic, Mirjana; Nikitović, Dejana; Rodríguez Suárez, Roberto; Smith, David; Kanik, Nadine; García Jordá, Dailys; Buhay, William M.

2017-01-01

The general lack of well-preserved juvenile skeletal remains from Caribbean archaeological sites has, in the past, prevented evaluations of juvenile dietary changes. Canímar Abajo (Cuba), with a large number of well-preserved juvenile and adult skeletal remains, provided a unique opportunity to fully assess juvenile paleodiets from an ancient Caribbean population. Ages for the start and the end of weaning and possible food sources used for weaning were inferred by combining the results of two Bayesian probability models that help to reduce some of the uncertainties inherent to bone collagen isotope based paleodiet reconstructions. Bone collagen (31 juveniles, 18 adult females) was used for carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses. The isotope results were assessed using two Bayesian probability models: Weaning Ages Reconstruction with Nitrogen isotopes and Stable Isotope Analyses in R. Breast milk seems to have been the most important protein source until two years of age with some supplementary food such as tropical fruits and root cultigens likely introduced earlier. After two, juvenile diets were likely continuously supplemented by starch rich foods such as root cultigens and legumes. By the age of three, the model results suggest that the weaning process was completed. Additional indications suggest that animal marine/riverine protein and maize, while part of the Canímar Abajo female diets, were likely not used to supplement juvenile diets. The combined use of both models here provided a more complete assessment of the weaning process for an ancient Caribbean population, indicating not only the start and end ages of weaning but also the relative importance of different food sources for different age juveniles. PMID:28459816

Isotopic reconstruction of the weaning process in the archaeological population of Canímar Abajo, Cuba: A Bayesian probability mixing model approach.

PubMed

Chinique de Armas, Yadira; Roksandic, Mirjana; Nikitović, Dejana; Rodríguez Suárez, Roberto; Smith, David; Kanik, Nadine; García Jordá, Dailys; Buhay, William M

2017-01-01

The general lack of well-preserved juvenile skeletal remains from Caribbean archaeological sites has, in the past, prevented evaluations of juvenile dietary changes. Canímar Abajo (Cuba), with a large number of well-preserved juvenile and adult skeletal remains, provided a unique opportunity to fully assess juvenile paleodiets from an ancient Caribbean population. Ages for the start and the end of weaning and possible food sources used for weaning were inferred by combining the results of two Bayesian probability models that help to reduce some of the uncertainties inherent to bone collagen isotope based paleodiet reconstructions. Bone collagen (31 juveniles, 18 adult females) was used for carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses. The isotope results were assessed using two Bayesian probability models: Weaning Ages Reconstruction with Nitrogen isotopes and Stable Isotope Analyses in R. Breast milk seems to have been the most important protein source until two years of age with some supplementary food such as tropical fruits and root cultigens likely introduced earlier. After two, juvenile diets were likely continuously supplemented by starch rich foods such as root cultigens and legumes. By the age of three, the model results suggest that the weaning process was completed. Additional indications suggest that animal marine/riverine protein and maize, while part of the Canímar Abajo female diets, were likely not used to supplement juvenile diets. The combined use of both models here provided a more complete assessment of the weaning process for an ancient Caribbean population, indicating not only the start and end ages of weaning but also the relative importance of different food sources for different age juveniles.

Unveiling an ancient biological invasion: molecular analysis of an old European alien, the crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata).

PubMed

Trucchi, Emiliano; Sbordoni, Valerio

2009-05-18

Biological invasions can be considered one of the main threats to biodiversity, and the recognition of common ecological and evolutionary features among invaders can help developing a predictive framework to control further invasions. In particular, the analysis of successful invasive species and of their autochthonous source populations by means of genetic, phylogeographic and demographic tools can provide novel insights into the study of biological invasion patterns. Today, long-term dynamics of biological invasions are still poorly understood and need further investigations. Moreover, distribution and molecular data on native populations could contribute to the recognition of common evolutionary features of successful aliens. We analyzed 2,195 mitochondrial base pairs, including Cytochrome b, Control Region and rRNA 12S, in 161 Italian and 27 African specimens and assessed the ancient invasive origin of Italian crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) populations from Tunisia. Molecular coalescent-based Bayesian analyses proposed the Roman Age as a putative timeframe of introduction and suggested a retention of genetic diversity during the early phases of colonization. The characterization of the native African genetic background revealed the existence of two differentiated clades: a Mediterranean group and a Sub-Saharan one. Both standard population genetic and advanced molecular demography tools (Bayesian Skyline Plot) did not evidence a clear genetic signature of the expected increase in population size after introduction. Along with the genetic diversity retention during the bottlenecked steps of introduction, this finding could be better described by hypothesizing a multi-invasion event. Evidences of the ancient anthropogenic invasive origin of the Italian Hystrix cristata populations were clearly shown and the native African genetic background was preliminary described. A more complex pattern than a simple demographic exponential growth from a single propagule seems to have characterized this long-term invasion.

Overcoming deep roots, fast rates, and short internodes to resolve the ancient rapid radiation of eupolypod II ferns.

PubMed

Rothfels, Carl J; Larsson, Anders; Kuo, Li-Yaung; Korall, Petra; Chiou, Wen-Liang; Pryer, Kathleen M

2012-05-01

Backbone relationships within the large eupolypod II clade, which includes nearly a third of extant fern species, have resisted elucidation by both molecular and morphological data. Earlier studies suggest that much of the phylogenetic intractability of this group is due to three factors: (i) a long root that reduces apparent levels of support in the ingroup; (ii) long ingroup branches subtended by a series of very short backbone internodes (the "ancient rapid radiation" model); and (iii) significantly heterogeneous lineage-specific rates of substitution. To resolve the eupolypod II phylogeny, with a particular emphasis on the backbone internodes, we assembled a data set of five plastid loci (atpA, atpB, matK, rbcL, and trnG-R) from a sample of 81 accessions selected to capture the deepest divergences in the clade. We then evaluated our phylogenetic hypothesis against potential confounding factors, including those induced by rooting, ancient rapid radiation, rate heterogeneity, and the Bayesian star-tree paradox artifact. While the strong support we inferred for the backbone relationships proved robust to these potential problems, their investigation revealed unexpected model-mediated impacts of outgroup composition, divergent effects of methods for countering the star-tree paradox artifact, and gave no support to concerns about the applicability of the unrooted model to data sets with heterogeneous lineage-specific rates of substitution. This study is among few to investigate these factors with empirical data, and the first to compare the performance of the two primary methods for overcoming the Bayesian star-tree paradox artifact. Among the significant phylogenetic results is the near-complete support along the eupolypod II backbone, the demonstrated paraphyly of Woodsiaceae as currently circumscribed, and the well-supported placement of the enigmatic genera Homalosorus, Diplaziopsis, and Woodsia.

The Holocene British and Irish ancient forest fossil beetle fauna: implications for forest history, biodiversity and faunal colonisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitehouse, Nicki J.

2006-08-01

This paper presents a new review of our knowledge of the ancient forest beetle fauna from Holocene archaeological and palaeoecological sites in Great Britain and Ireland. It examines the colonisation, dispersal and decline of beetle species, highlighting the scale and nature of human activities in the shaping of the landscape of the British Isles. In particular, the paper discusses effects upon the insect fauna, and examines in detail the fossil record from the Humberhead Levels, eastern England. It discusses the local extirpation of up to 40 species in Britain and 15 species in Ireland. An evaluation of the timing of extirpations is made, suggesting that many species in Britain disappear from the fossil record between ca 3000 and 1000 cal BC (ca 5000-3000 cal BP), although some taxa may well have survived until considerably later. In Ireland, there are two distinct trends, with a group of species which seem to be absent after ca 2000 cal BC (ca 4000 cal BP) and a further group which survives until at least as late as the medieval period. The final clearance of the Irish landscape over the last few hundred years was so dramatic, however, that some species which are not especially unusual in a British context were decimated. Reasons behind the extirpation of taxa are examined in detail, and include a combination of forest clearance and human activities, isolation of populations, lack of temporal continuity of habitats, edaphic and competition factors affecting distribution of host trees (particularly pine), lack of forest fires and a decline in open forest systems. The role of climate change in extirpations is also evaluated. Consideration is given to the significance of these specialised ancient forest inhabitants in Ireland in the absence of an early Holocene land-bridge which suggests that colonisation was aided by other mechanisms, such as human activities and wood rafting. Finally, the paper discusses the Continental origins of the British and Irish fauna and its hosts and the role played by European glacial refugia.

Molecular phylogeny, biogeography and insights into the origin of parthenogenesis in the Neotropical genus Leposoma (Squamata: Gymnophthalmidae): Ancient links between the Atlantic Forest and Amazonia.

PubMed

Pellegrino, Katia C M; Rodrigues, Miguel T; Harris, D James; Yonenaga-Yassuda, Yatiyo; Sites, Jack W

2011-11-01

Leposoma is a conspicuous component of leaf litter herpetofauna of South and Central American rainforests. The 15 bisexual and one parthenogenetic species are allocated to the parietale and scincoides groups based on morphology. Phylogenetic analyses of 1830 bp (mtDNA+nuclear) were performed on 63 specimens of four species from Amazonian and Panamanian rainforests, and six species and one undescribed form from the Atlantic Forest. Different methods of tree reconstruction were explored, with Anotosaura vanzolinia and Colobosauroides cearensis as outgroups. The monophyly of the parietale and scincoides groups is strongly supported. Contrary to previous hypotheses suggesting a recent contact between Atlantic and Amazon forests, our estimates point to an initial split in Miocene. The position of Leposoma baturitensis, endemic to relictual forests in the semiarid Caatingas northeastern Brazil, and its divergence from the remaining species of the Atlantic Forest, suggests an ancient isolation with no indication of a secondary contact with forests of the eastern coast. Our data do not permit unambiguous assignment of parental species of the unisexual Leposoma percarinatum or the mechanism involved in the origin of parthenogenesis, but revealed two highly divergent diploid and triploid lineages within L. percarinatum, indicating that the unisexuals represent a species complex. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clarifying the confusion: old-growth savannahs and tropical ecosystem degradation

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Ancient tropical grassy biomes are often misrecognized as severely degraded forests. I trace this confusion to several factors, with roots in the nineteenth century, including misinterpretations of the nature of fire in savannahs, attempts to reconcile savannah ecology with Clementsian succession, use of physiognomic (structural) definitions of savannah and development of tropical degradation frameworks focused solely on forests. Towards clarity, I present two models that conceptualize the drivers of ecosystem degradation as operating in both savannahs and forests. These models highlight how human-induced environmental changes create ecosystems with superficially similar physiognomies but radically different conservation values. Given the limitation of physiognomy to differentiate savannahs from severely degraded forests, I present an alternative approach based on floristic composition. Data from eastern lowland Bolivia show that old-growth savannahs can be reliably distinguished by eight grass species and that species identity influences ecosystem flammability. I recommend that scientists incorporate savannahs in tropical degradation frameworks alongside forests, and that savannah be qualified as old-growth savannah in reference to ancient grassy biomes or derived savannah in reference to deforestation. These conceptual advances will require attention not only to tree cover, but also to savannah herbaceous plant species and their ecologies. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’. PMID:27502372

Signature of a Pre-Human Population Decline in the Critically Endangered Reunion Island Endemic Forest Bird Coracina newtoni

PubMed Central

Salmona, Jordi; Salamolard, Marc; Fouillot, Damien; Ghestemme, Thomas; Larose, Jerry; Centon, Jean-François; Sousa, Vitor; Dawson, Deborah A.; Thebaud, Christophe; Chikhi, Lounès

2012-01-01

The exceptional biodiversity of Reunion Island is threatened by anthropogenic landscape changes that took place during the 350 years of human colonization. During this period the human population size increased dramatically from 250 to 800,000. The arrival of humans together with the development of agriculture, invasive species such as rats and cats, and deforestation has lead to the extinction of more than half of the original vertebrate species of the island. For the remaining species, significant work is being carried out to identify threats and conservation status, but little genetic work has been carried on some of the most endangered species. In the last decade theoretical studies have shown the ability of neutral genetic markers to infer the demographic history of endangered species and identify and date past population size changes (expansions or bottlenecks). In this study we provide the first genetic data on the critically endangered species the Reunion cuckoo-shrike Coracina newtoni. The Reunion cuckoo-shrike is a rare endemic forest bird surviving in a restricted 12-km2 area of forested uplands and mountains. The total known population consists of less than one hundred individuals out of which 45 were genotyped using seventeen polymorphic microsatellite loci. We found a limited level of genetic variability and weak population structure, probably due to the limited geographic distribution. Using Bayesian methods, we identified a strong decline in population size during the Holocene, most likely caused by an ancient climatic or volcanic event around 5000 years ago. This result was surprising as it appeared in apparent contradiction with the accepted theory of recent population collapse due to deforestation and predator introduction. These results suggest that new methods allowing for more complex demographic models are necessary to reconstruct the demographic history of populations. PMID:22916272

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

Treesearch

Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; John B. Bradford; Randy Kolka; Richard Birdsey; Michael G. Ryan

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both...

Predicting Tree Mortality From Diameter Growth: A Comparison of Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Approaches

Treesearch

Peter H. Wychoff; James S. Clark

2000-01-01

Ecologists and foresters have long noted a link between tree growth rate and mortality, and recent work suggests that i&erspecific differences in low growth tolerauce is a key force shaping forest structure. Little information is available, however, on the growth-mortality relationship for most species. We present three methods for estimating growth-mortality...

Multiplicative Forests for Continuous-Time Processes

PubMed Central

Weiss, Jeremy C.; Natarajan, Sriraam; Page, David

2013-01-01

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability. PMID:25284967

Multiplicative Forests for Continuous-Time Processes.

PubMed

Weiss, Jeremy C; Natarajan, Sriraam; Page, David

2012-01-01

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability.

A simplified gross primary production and evapotranspiration model for boreal coniferous forests - is a generic calibration sufficient?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minunno, F.; Peltoniemi, M.; Launiainen, S.; Aurela, M.; Lindroth, A.; Lohila, A.; Mammarella, I.; Minkkinen, K.; Mäkelä, A.

2015-07-01

The problem of model complexity has been lively debated in environmental sciences as well as in the forest modelling community. Simple models are less input demanding and their calibration involves a lower number of parameters, but they might be suitable only at local scale. In this work we calibrated a simplified ecosystem process model (PRELES) to data from multiple sites and we tested if PRELES can be used at regional scale to estimate the carbon and water fluxes of Boreal conifer forests. We compared a multi-site (M-S) with site-specific (S-S) calibrations. Model calibrations and evaluations were carried out by the means of the Bayesian method; Bayesian calibration (BC) and Bayesian model comparison (BMC) were used to quantify the uncertainty in model parameters and model structure. To evaluate model performances BMC results were combined with more classical analysis of model-data mismatch (M-DM). Evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) measurements collected in 10 sites of Finland and Sweden were used in the study. Calibration results showed that similar estimates were obtained for the parameters at which model outputs are most sensitive. No significant differences were encountered in the predictions of the multi-site and site-specific versions of PRELES with exception of a site with agricultural history (Alkkia). Although PRELES predicted GPP better than evapotranspiration, we concluded that the model can be reliably used at regional scale to simulate carbon and water fluxes of Boreal forests. Our analyses underlined also the importance of using long and carefully collected flux datasets in model calibration. In fact, even a single site can provide model calibrations that can be applied at a wider spatial scale, since it covers a wide range of variability in climatic conditions.

Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a process-based tropical forest model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

2014-02-01

Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in many scientific disciplines. A key question for inverse parameter estimation is how to define the metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. This metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion methods require a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model parameters, known as the likelihood. For technical and computational reasons, likelihoods for process-based stochastic models are usually based on general assumptions about variability in the observed data, and not on the stochasticity generated by the model. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow the generation of likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual inventory data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine its sensitivity to the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and demonstrate the application of this method by fitting the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss how this approach differs from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), another method commonly used to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation, can be successfully applied to process-based models of high complexity. The methodology is particularly suitable for heterogeneous and complex data structures and can easily be adjusted to other model types, including most stochastic population and individual-based models. Our study therefore provides a blueprint for a fairly general approach to parameter estimation of stochastic process-based models.

Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a complex tropical forest model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

2013-08-01

Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in ecology and evolution. A key problem of inverse parameter estimation is to define a metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. Such a metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion approaches are based on a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model, known as the likelihood. Deriving likelihoods for dynamic models requires making assumptions about the probability for observations to deviate from mean model predictions. For technical reasons, these assumptions are usually derived without explicit consideration of the processes in the simulation. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow generating likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional MCMC, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual field data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine the sensitivity towards the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and show results from using this method to fit the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss differences of this approach to Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), another commonly used method to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation, can successfully be applied to process-based models of high complexity. The methodology is particularly suited to heterogeneous and complex data structures and can easily be adjusted to other model types, including most stochastic population and individual-based models. Our study therefore provides a blueprint for a fairly general approach to parameter estimation of stochastic process-based models in ecology and evolution.

Preliminary Facies Reconstruction of a Late Pleistocene Cypress Forest Discovered on the Northern Gulf of Mexico Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez Rodriguez, S. M.; Bentley, S. J.; DeLong, K. L.; Xu, K.; Caporaso, A.; Obelcz, J. B.; Harley, G. L.; Reese, C. A.; Truong, J. T.

2016-12-01

We are investigating the origin and preservation of an ancient bald cypress forest (Taxodium distichum) discovered on the continental shelf seafloor, offshore of Gulf Shores, Alabama, USA, in 20 m water depth. The forest was likely buried in the late Pleistocene, possibly exhumed by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, and is now exposed as stumps in life position with little evidence of decay before recent marine exposure. Radiocarbon analyses show that the forest age is near (and in some cases beyond) the limits of 14C dating, at least 41-45 ky BP. In August 2015 and July 2016, submersible vibracores (up to 5 m in length) were collected. Ongoing core analyses include: organic content (loss on ignition), granulometry, and core logging using a Geotek Multi Sensor Core Logger to generate imagery, bulk density, and x-ray fluorescence data. To bolster 14C analyses, cores collected in 2016 are presently being dated using optically stimulated luminescence. Local stratigraphy consists of a surface facies of Holocene transgressive sands, underlain by possible estuarine sediments of interbedded sand and mud (potentially Holocene or Pleistocene), overlying a swamp or delta plain facies (likely Pleistocene) containing woody debris and mud. Deeper woody facies are thought to include the soil horizons of the ancient cypress forest. Cores collected in 2016 revealed a Pleistocene paleosol beneath Holocene sands in a nearby trough. Elevation differences between swamp and paleosol horizons will be evaluated from bathymetric and subbottom data, to help characterize the preserved ancient landscape. Initial interpretation based on close proximity of Pleistocene swamp and oxidized paleosol sediments, and regional geomorphic gradients suggest that this relatively diverse assemblage of facies developed up to tens of km from the glacial-age coastline, and relatively rapid burial prevented erosion by coastal processes during the Holocene transgression thus preserving the tree stumps and wood debris.

Sundanese ancient manuscripts search engine using probability approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryani, Mira; Hadi, Setiawan; Paulus, Erick; Nurma Yulita, Intan; Supriatna, Asep K.

2017-10-01

Today, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become a regular thing for every aspect of live include cultural and heritage aspect. Sundanese ancient manuscripts as Sundanese heritage are in damage condition and also the information that containing on it. So in order to preserve the information in Sundanese ancient manuscripts and make them easier to search, a search engine has been developed. The search engine must has good computing ability. In order to get the best computation in developed search engine, three types of probabilistic approaches: Bayesian Networks Model, Divergence from Randomness with PL2 distribution, and DFR-PL2F as derivative form DFR-PL2 have been compared in this study. The three probabilistic approaches supported by index of documents and three different weighting methods: term occurrence, term frequency, and TF-IDF. The experiment involved 12 Sundanese ancient manuscripts. From 12 manuscripts there are 474 distinct terms. The developed search engine tested by 50 random queries for three types of query. The experiment results showed that for the single query and multiple query, the best searching performance given by the combination of PL2F approach and TF-IDF weighting method. The performance has been evaluated using average time responds with value about 0.08 second and Mean Average Precision (MAP) about 0.33.

Livistona palms in Australia: ancient relics or opportunistic immigrants?

PubMed

Crisp, Michael D; Isagi, Yuji; Kato, Yohei; Cook, Lyn G; Bowman, David M J S

2010-02-01

Eighteen of the 34 species of the fan palm genus Livistona (Arecaceae) are restricted to Australia and southern New Guinea, east of Wallace's Line, an ancient biogeographic boundary between the former supercontinents Laurasia and Gondwana. The remaining species extend from SE Asia to Africa, west of Wallace's Line. Competing hypotheses contend that Livistona is (a) ancient, its current distribution a relict of the supercontinents, or (b) a Miocene immigrant from the north into Australia as it drifted towards Asia. We have tested these hypotheses using Bayesian and penalized likelihood molecular dating based on 4Kb of nuclear and chloroplast DNA sequences with multiple fossil calibration points. Ancestral areas and biomes were reconstructed using parsimony and maximum likelihood. We found strong support for the second hypothesis, that a single Livistona ancestor colonized Australia from the north about 10-17Ma. Spread and diversification of the genus within Australia was likely favoured by a transition from the aseasonal wet to monsoonal biome, to which it could have been preadapted by fire-tolerance. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Under the volcano: phylogeography and evolution of the cave-dwelling Palmorchestia hypogaea (Amphipoda, Crustacea) at La Palma (Canary Islands)

PubMed Central

Villacorta, Carlos; Jaume, Damià; Oromí, Pedro; Juan, Carlos

2008-01-01

Background The amphipod crustacean Palmorchestia hypogaea occurs only in La Palma (Canary Islands) and is one of the few terrestrial amphipods in the world that have adapted to a strictly troglobitic life in volcanic cave habitats. A surface-dwelling closely related species (Palmorchestia epigaea) lives in the humid laurel forest on the same island. Previous studies have suggested that an ancestral littoral Orchestia species colonized the humid forests of La Palma and that subsequent drought episodes in the Canaries reduced the distribution of P. epigaea favouring the colonization of lava tubes through an adaptive shift. This was followed by dispersal via the hypogean crevicular system. Results P. hypogaea and P. epigaea did not form reciprocally monophyletic mitochondrial DNA clades. They showed geographically highly structured and genetically divergent populations with current gene flow limited to geographically close surface locations. Coalescence times using Bayesian estimations assuming a non-correlated relaxed clock with a normal prior distribution of the age of La Palma, together with the lack of association of habitat type with ancestral and recent haplotypes, suggest that their adaptation to cave life is relatively ancient. Conclusion The data gathered here provide evidence for multiple invasions of the volcanic cave systems that have acted as refuges. A re-evaluation of the taxonomic status of the extant species of Palmorchestia is needed, as the division of the two species by habitat and ecology is unnatural. The information obtained here, and that from previous studies on hypogean fauna, shows the importance of factors such as the uncoupling of morphological and genetic evolution, the role of climatic change and regressive evolution as key processes in leading to subterranean biodiversity. PMID:18234125

Under the volcano: phylogeography and evolution of the cave-dwelling Palmorchestia hypogaea (Amphipoda, Crustacea) at La Palma (Canary Islands).

PubMed

Villacorta, Carlos; Jaume, Damià; Oromí, Pedro; Juan, Carlos

2008-01-31

The amphipod crustacean Palmorchestia hypogaea occurs only in La Palma (Canary Islands) and is one of the few terrestrial amphipods in the world that have adapted to a strictly troglobitic life in volcanic cave habitats. A surface-dwelling closely related species (Palmorchestia epigaea) lives in the humid laurel forest on the same island. Previous studies have suggested that an ancestral littoral Orchestia species colonized the humid forests of La Palma and that subsequent drought episodes in the Canaries reduced the distribution of P. epigaea favouring the colonization of lava tubes through an adaptive shift. This was followed by dispersal via the hypogean crevicular system. P. hypogaea and P. epigaea did not form reciprocally monophyletic mitochondrial DNA clades. They showed geographically highly structured and genetically divergent populations with current gene flow limited to geographically close surface locations. Coalescence times using Bayesian estimations assuming a non-correlated relaxed clock with a normal prior distribution of the age of La Palma, together with the lack of association of habitat type with ancestral and recent haplotypes, suggest that their adaptation to cave life is relatively ancient. The data gathered here provide evidence for multiple invasions of the volcanic cave systems that have acted as refuges. A re-evaluation of the taxonomic status of the extant species of Palmorchestia is needed, as the division of the two species by habitat and ecology is unnatural. The information obtained here, and that from previous studies on hypogean fauna, shows the importance of factors such as the uncoupling of morphological and genetic evolution, the role of climatic change and regressive evolution as key processes in leading to subterranean biodiversity.

Changing perceptions of watershed management from a retrospective viewpoint

Treesearch

Daniel G. Neary

2000-01-01

Watershed management, an ancient concept, was defined in Vedic texts from India that date from 1,000 B.C. This concept has been an integral part of forest and rangeland management in North America throughout the 20th century, but its scope has broadened significantly. Although the Forest Reserve Act of 1891 created the reserves that were to become the core of the...

Ancient mitochondrial DNA provides high-resolution time scale of the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Llamas, Bastien; Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Valverde, Guido; Soubrier, Julien; Mallick, Swapan; Rohland, Nadin; Nordenfelt, Susanne; Valdiosera, Cristina; Richards, Stephen M; Rohrlach, Adam; Romero, Maria Inés Barreto; Espinoza, Isabel Flores; Cagigao, Elsa Tomasto; Jiménez, Lucía Watson; Makowski, Krzysztof; Reyna, Ilán Santiago Leboreiro; Lory, Josefina Mansilla; Torrez, Julio Alejandro Ballivián; Rivera, Mario A; Burger, Richard L; Ceruti, Maria Constanza; Reinhard, Johan; Wells, R Spencer; Politis, Gustavo; Santoro, Calogero M; Standen, Vivien G; Smith, Colin; Reich, David; Ho, Simon Y W; Cooper, Alan; Haak, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

The exact timing, route, and process of the initial peopling of the Americas remains uncertain despite much research. Archaeological evidence indicates the presence of humans as far as southern Chile by 14.6 thousand years ago (ka), shortly after the Pleistocene ice sheets blocking access from eastern Beringia began to retreat. Genetic estimates of the timing and route of entry have been constrained by the lack of suitable calibration points and low genetic diversity of Native Americans. We sequenced 92 whole mitochondrial genomes from pre-Columbian South American skeletons dating from 8.6 to 0.5 ka, allowing a detailed, temporally calibrated reconstruction of the peopling of the Americas in a Bayesian coalescent analysis. The data suggest that a small population entered the Americas via a coastal route around 16.0 ka, following previous isolation in eastern Beringia for ~2.4 to 9 thousand years after separation from eastern Siberian populations. Following a rapid movement throughout the Americas, limited gene flow in South America resulted in a marked phylogeographic structure of populations, which persisted through time. All of the ancient mitochondrial lineages detected in this study were absent from modern data sets, suggesting a high extinction rate. To investigate this further, we applied a novel principal components multiple logistic regression test to Bayesian serial coalescent simulations. The analysis supported a scenario in which European colonization caused a substantial loss of pre-Columbian lineages.

Sediment source apportionment in Laurel Hill Creek, PA, using Bayesian chemical mass balance and isotope fingerprinting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Heather; Massoudieh, Arash; Gellis, Allen C.

2015-01-01

A Bayesian chemical mass balance (CMB) approach was used to assess the contribution of potential sources for fluvial samples from Laurel Hill Creek in southwest Pennsylvania. The Bayesian approach provides joint probability density functions of the sources' contributions considering the uncertainties due to source and fluvial sample heterogeneity and measurement error. Both elemental profiles of sources and fluvial samples and 13C and 15N isotopes were used for source apportionment. The sources considered include stream bank erosion, forest, roads and agriculture (pasture and cropland). Agriculture was found to have the largest contribution, followed by stream bank erosion. Also, road erosion was found to have a significant contribution in three of the samples collected during lower-intensity rain events. The source apportionment was performed with and without isotopes. The results were largely consistent; however, the use of isotopes was found to slightly increase the uncertainty in most of the cases. The correlation analysis between the contributions of sources shows strong correlations between stream bank and agriculture, whereas roads and forest seem to be less correlated to other sources. Thus, the method was better able to estimate road and forest contributions independently. The hypothesis that the contributions of sources are not seasonally changing was tested by assuming that all ten fluvial samples had the same source contributions. This hypothesis was rejected, demonstrating a significant seasonal variation in the sources of sediments in the stream.

Pre-Columbian archaeological ruins are revealed through Costa Rican rain forest in this photo taken during NASA's AirSAR 2004 campaign

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-03-05

Pre-Columbian archaeological ruins are revealed through Costa Rican rain forest in this photo taken during NASA's AirSAR 2004 Mesoamerica campaign. AirSAR 2004 Mesoamerica is a three-week expedition by an international team of scientists that uses an all-weather imaging tool, called the Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AirSAR) which is located onboard NASA's DC-8 airborne laboratory. The radar, developed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, can penetrate clouds and also collect data at night. Its high-resolution sensors operate at multiple wavelengths and modes, allowing AirSAR to see beneath treetops, through thin sand, and dry snow pack. Much of the archaeological evidence needed to understand Pre-Columbian societies in Central America comes from features on the landscape. Difficult terrain and logistics have limited ground data collection. AirSAR helped to detect signs of ancient civilizations hidden beneath the forest. Its images will shed insights into the way modern humans interact with their landscape, and how ancient peoples lived and what became of their civilizations.

Use of pollen and ancient DNA as conservation baselines for offshore islands in New Zealand.

PubMed

Wilmshurst, Janet M; Moar, Neville T; Wood, Jamie R; Bellingham, Peter J; Findlater, Amy M; Robinson, James J; Stone, Clive

2014-02-01

Islands play a key role globally in the conservation of endemic species. Many island reserves have been highly modified since human colonization, and their restoration and management usually occur without knowledge of their prehuman state. However, conservation paleoecology is increasingly being recognized as a tool that can help to inform both restoration and conservation of island reserves by providing prehuman vegetation baselines. Many of New Zealand's mammal-free offshore islands are foci for biological diversity conservation and, like many islands in the Polynesian region, were deforested following initial human settlement. Therefore, their current restoration, replanting, and management are guided either by historic vegetation descriptions or the occurrence of species on forested islands. We analyzed pollen and ancient DNA in soil cores from an offshore island in northern New Zealand. The result was a 2000-year record of vegetation change that began >1200 years before human settlement and spanned 550 years of human occupation and 180 years of forest succession since human occupation ceased. Between prehuman and contemporary forests there was nearly a complete species turnover including the extirpation of a dominant conifer and a palm tree. The podocarp-dominated forests were replaced by a native but novel angiosperm-dominated forest. There is no modern analog of the prehuman forests on any northern New Zealand island, and those islands that are forested are dominated by angiosperms which are assumed to be climax forests. The pollen and DNA evidence for conifer- and palm-rich forests in the prehuman era challenge this climax forest assumption. Prehuman vegetation records can thus help to inform future restoration of degraded offshore islands by informing the likely rate and direction of successional change; helping to determine whether natural rates of succession are preferable to more costly replanting programs; and providing past species lists if restoration replanting is desired. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Detection of photosynthetic responses of cool-temperate forests following extreme climate events using Bayesian inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, M.; Knohl, A.; Herbst, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Yokozawa, M.

2016-12-01

The increase in extreme climate events associated with ongoing global warming may create severe damage to terrestrial ecosystems, changing plant structure and the eco-physiological functions that regulate ecosystem carbon exchange. However, most damage is usually due to moderate, rather than catastrophic, disturbances. The nature of plant functional responses to such disturbances, and the resulting effects on the terrestrial carbon cycle, remain poorly understood. To unravel the scientific question, tower-based eddy covariance data in the cool-temperate forests were used to constrain plant eco-physiological parameters in a persimoneous ecosystem model that may have affected carbon dynamics following extreme climate events using the statistic Bayesian inversion approach. In the present study, we raised two types of extreme events relevant for cool-temperate regions, i.e. a typhoon with mechanistic foliage destraction and a heat wave with severe drought. With appropriate evaluation of parameter and predictive uncertainties, the inversion analysis shows annual trajectory of activated photosynthetic responses following climate extremes compared the pre-disturbance state in each forest. We address that forests with moderate disturbance show substantial and rapid photosynthetic recovery, enhanced productivity, and, thus, ecosystem carbon exchange, although the effect of extreme climatic events varies depending on the stand successional phase and the type, intensity, timing and legacy of the disturbance.

A Bayesian inverse modeling approach to estimate soil hydraulic properties of a toposequence in southeastern Amazonia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stucchi Boschi, Raquel; Qin, Mingming; Gimenez, Daniel; Cooper, Miguel

2016-04-01

Modeling is an important tool for better understanding and assessing land use impacts on landscape processes. A key point for environmental modeling is the knowledge of soil hydraulic properties. However, direct determination of soil hydraulic properties is difficult and costly, particularly in vast and remote regions such as one constituting the Amazon Biome. One way to overcome this problem is to extrapolate accurately estimated data to pedologically similar sites. The van Genuchten (VG) parametric equation is the most commonly used for modeling SWRC. The use of a Bayesian approach in combination with the Markov chain Monte Carlo to estimate the VG parameters has several advantages compared to the widely used global optimization techniques. The Bayesian approach provides posterior distributions of parameters that are independent from the initial values and allow for uncertainty analyses. The main objectives of this study were: i) to estimate hydraulic parameters from data of pasture and forest sites by the Bayesian inverse modeling approach; and ii) to investigate the extrapolation of the estimated VG parameters to a nearby toposequence with pedologically similar soils to those used for its estimate. The parameters were estimated from volumetric water content and tension observations obtained after rainfall events during a 207-day period from pasture and forest sites located in the southeastern Amazon region. These data were used to run HYDRUS-1D under a Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) scheme 10,000 times, and only the last 2,500 times were used to calculate the posterior distributions of each hydraulic parameter along with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of volumetric water content and tension time series. Then, the posterior distributions were used to generate hydraulic parameters for two nearby toposequences composed by six soil profiles, three are under forest and three are under pasture. The parameters of the nearby site were accepted when the predicted tension time series were within the 95% CI which is derived from the calibration site using DREAM scheme.

Variable effects of plant colonization on black slate uptake into microbial PLFAs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seifert, Anne-Gret; Trumbore, Susan; Xu, Xiaomei; Zhang, Dachung; Gleixner, Gerd

2013-04-01

Microbial degradation of carbon derived from black shale and slate has been shown in vitro. However, in natural settings where other labile carbon sources are likely to exist, this has not been previously demonstrated. We investigated the uptake of ancient carbon derived from slate weathering and from recently photosynthesised organic matter by different groups of microorganisms. Therefore we isolated microbial biomarkers (phospholipid fatty acids, PLFAs) from black slates collected at a chronosequence of waste piles which differed in age and vegetation cover. We quantified the amount of PLFAs and performed stable isotope and radiocarbon measurements on individual or grouped PLFAs to quantify the fraction of slate derived carbon. We used black slate from a pile heaped in the 1950s with either uncovered black slate material (bare site) or material slightly colonized by small plants (greened site) and from a forested leaching pile (forested site) used for alum-mining in the 19th century. Colonization by plants influenced the amount and composition of the microbial community. Greater amounts of PLFAs (5410 ng PLFA/g dw) were extracted from slate sampled at the forested site as opposed to the bare site (960 ng PLFAs/g dw) or the greened (annual grasses and mosses) rock waste pile (1050 ng PLFAs/g dw). We found the highest proportion of PLFAs representing Gram-negative bacteria on the forested site and the highest proportion of PLFAs representing Gram-positive bacteria on the bare site. The fungal PLFA was most abundant at the greened site. Sites with less plant colonization (bare and greened site) tended to have more depleted δ13C values compared to the forested site. Radiocarbon measurements on PLFAs indicated that fungi and Gram-positive bacteria were best adapted to black slate carbon uptake. In the fungal PLFA (combined bare and greened waste pile sample) and in PLFAs of Gram-positive bacteria (greened site) we measured 39.7% and 28.9% ancient carbon uptake, respectively. Our results prove that black slate degradation followed by carbon uptake takes place in situ. Results imply that plant colonization might additionally affect this process. Slight colonization with few plants increased slate derived carbon uptake in PLFAs of Gram-positive bacteria. Evidently, Gram-positive bacteria represented by specific PLFAs from the greened site held more ancient carbon than from the bare site. In contrast, no black slate derived carbon was used by microorganisms at the forested site with 2-3 times greater carbon content. Results suggest that the use of ancient slate derived carbon dominates mainly in early stages of microbial colonization of surfaces and that with increasing ecosystem development recycling of plant derived carbon dominates.

a Review of Late Holocene Fluvial Systems in the Karst Maya Lowlands with Focus on the Rio Bravo, Belize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, T.; Luzzadder-Beach, S.; Krause, S.; Doyle, C.

2015-12-01

The Maya Lowlands is mostly an internally draining karst region with about 400 m of regional relief. Fluvial and fluviokarst systems drain the edges of this landscape either from low limestone uplands or igneous and metamorphic complexes. Thus far most fluvial research has focused around archaeology projects, and here we review the extant research conducted across the region and new research on the transboundary Rio Bravo watershed of Belize and Guatemala. The Rio Bravo drains a largely old growth tropical forest today, but was partly deforested around ancient Maya cities and farms from 3,000 to 1000 BP. Several studies estimate that 30 to 40 percent of forest survived through the Maya period. Work here has focused on soils and sediment movement along slope catenas, in floodplain sites, and on contributions from groundwater with high dissolved loads of sulfate and calcium. We review radiocarbon dates and present new dates and soil stratigraphy from these sequences to date slope and floodplain movement, and we estimate ancient land use from carbon isotopic and pollen evidence. Aggradation in this watershed occurred by flooding, gypsum precipitation, upland erosion, and ancient Maya canal building and filling for wetland farming. Soil erosion and aggradation started at least by 3,000 BP and continued through the ancient Maya period, though reduced locally by soil conservation, post urban construction, and source reduction, especially in Maya Classic period from 1700 to 1000 BP.

Use of airborne lidar data to improve plant species richness and diversity monitoring in lowland and mountain forests

PubMed Central

Durrieu, Sylvie; Gosselin, Frédéric; Herpigny, Basile

2017-01-01

We explored the potential of airborne laser scanner (ALS) data to improve Bayesian models linking biodiversity indicators of the understory vegetation to environmental factors. Biodiversity was studied at plot level and models were built to investigate species abundance for the most abundant plants found on each study site, and for ecological group richness based on light preference. The usual abiotic explanatory factors related to climate, topography and soil properties were used in the models. ALS data, available for two contrasting study sites, were used to provide biotic factors related to forest structure, which was assumed to be a key driver of understory biodiversity. Several ALS variables were found to have significant effects on biodiversity indicators. However, the responses of biodiversity indicators to forest structure variables, as revealed by the Bayesian model outputs, were shown to be dependent on the abiotic environmental conditions characterizing the study areas. Lower responses were observed on the lowland site than on the mountainous site. In the latter, shade-tolerant and heliophilous species richness was impacted by vegetation structure indicators linked to light penetration through the canopy. However, to reveal the full effects of forest structure on biodiversity indicators, forest structure would need to be measured over much wider areas than the plot we assessed. It seems obvious that the forest structure surrounding the field plots can impact biodiversity indicators measured at plot level. Various scales were found to be relevant depending on: the biodiversity indicators that were modelled, and the ALS variable. Finally, our results underline the utility of lidar data in abundance and richness models to characterize forest structure with variables that are difficult to measure in the field, either due to their nature or to the size of the area they relate to. PMID:28902920

Predicting forest insect flight activity: A Bayesian network approach

PubMed Central

Pawson, Stephen M.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Woodberry, Owen G.

2017-01-01

Daily flight activity patterns of forest insects are influenced by temporal and meteorological conditions. Temperature and time of day are frequently cited as key drivers of activity; however, complex interactions between multiple contributing factors have also been proposed. Here, we report individual Bayesian network models to assess the probability of flight activity of three exotic insects, Hylurgus ligniperda, Hylastes ater, and Arhopalus ferus in a managed plantation forest context. Models were built from 7,144 individual hours of insect sampling, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, photon flux density, and temporal data. Discretized meteorological and temporal variables were used to build naïve Bayes tree augmented networks. Calibration results suggested that the H. ater and A. ferus Bayesian network models had the best fit for low Type I and overall errors, and H. ligniperda had the best fit for low Type II errors. Maximum hourly temperature and time since sunrise had the largest influence on H. ligniperda flight activity predictions, whereas time of day and year had the greatest influence on H. ater and A. ferus activity. Type II model errors for the prediction of no flight activity is improved by increasing the model’s predictive threshold. Improvements in model performance can be made by further sampling, increasing the sensitivity of the flight intercept traps, and replicating sampling in other regions. Predicting insect flight informs an assessment of the potential phytosanitary risks of wood exports. Quantifying this risk allows mitigation treatments to be targeted to prevent the spread of invasive species via international trade pathways. PMID:28953904

Treating fossils as terminal taxa in divergence time estimation reveals ancient vicariance patterns in the palpimanoid spiders.

PubMed

Wood, Hannah Marie; Matzke, Nicholas J; Gillespie, Rosemary G; Griswold, Charles E

2013-03-01

Incorporation of fossils into biogeographic studies can have a profound effect on the conclusions that result, particularly when fossil ranges are nonoverlapping with extant ranges. This is the case in archaeid spiders, where there are known fossils from the Northern Hemisphere, yet all living members are restricted to the Southern Hemisphere. To better understand the biogeographic patterns of archaeid spiders and their palpimanoid relatives, we estimate a dated phylogeny using a relaxed clock on a combined molecular and morphological data set. Dating information is compared with treating the archaeid fossil taxa as both node calibrations and as noncontemporaneous terminal tips, both with and without additional calibration points. Estimation of ancestral biogeographic ranges is then performed, using likelihood and Bayesian methods to take into account uncertainty in phylogeny and in dating. We find that treating the fossils as terminal tips within a Bayesian framework, as opposed to dating the phylogeny based only on molecular data with the dates coming from node calibrations, removes the subjectivity involved in assigning priors, which has not been possible with previous methods. Our analyses suggest that the diversification of the northern and southern archaeid lineages was congruent with the breakup of Pangaea into Laurasia and Gondwanaland. This analysis provides a rare example, and perhaps the most strongly supported, where a dated phylogeny confirms a biogeographical hypothesis based on vicariance due to the breakup of the ancient continental plates.

Ancient mitochondrial DNA provides high-resolution time scale of the peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Llamas, Bastien; Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Valverde, Guido; Soubrier, Julien; Mallick, Swapan; Rohland, Nadin; Nordenfelt, Susanne; Valdiosera, Cristina; Richards, Stephen M.; Rohrlach, Adam; Romero, Maria Inés Barreto; Espinoza, Isabel Flores; Cagigao, Elsa Tomasto; Jiménez, Lucía Watson; Makowski, Krzysztof; Reyna, Ilán Santiago Leboreiro; Lory, Josefina Mansilla; Torrez, Julio Alejandro Ballivián; Rivera, Mario A.; Burger, Richard L.; Ceruti, Maria Constanza; Reinhard, Johan; Wells, R. Spencer; Politis, Gustavo; Santoro, Calogero M.; Standen, Vivien G.; Smith, Colin; Reich, David; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Cooper, Alan; Haak, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

The exact timing, route, and process of the initial peopling of the Americas remains uncertain despite much research. Archaeological evidence indicates the presence of humans as far as southern Chile by 14.6 thousand years ago (ka), shortly after the Pleistocene ice sheets blocking access from eastern Beringia began to retreat. Genetic estimates of the timing and route of entry have been constrained by the lack of suitable calibration points and low genetic diversity of Native Americans. We sequenced 92 whole mitochondrial genomes from pre-Columbian South American skeletons dating from 8.6 to 0.5 ka, allowing a detailed, temporally calibrated reconstruction of the peopling of the Americas in a Bayesian coalescent analysis. The data suggest that a small population entered the Americas via a coastal route around 16.0 ka, following previous isolation in eastern Beringia for ~2.4 to 9 thousand years after separation from eastern Siberian populations. Following a rapid movement throughout the Americas, limited gene flow in South America resulted in a marked phylogeographic structure of populations, which persisted through time. All of the ancient mitochondrial lineages detected in this study were absent from modern data sets, suggesting a high extinction rate. To investigate this further, we applied a novel principal components multiple logistic regression test to Bayesian serial coalescent simulations. The analysis supported a scenario in which European colonization caused a substantial loss of pre-Columbian lineages. PMID:27051878

Back to BaySICS: a user-friendly program for Bayesian Statistical Inference from Coalescent Simulations.

PubMed

Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Palkopoulou, Eleftheria; Dalén, Love

2014-01-01

Inference of population demographic history has vastly improved in recent years due to a number of technological and theoretical advances including the use of ancient DNA. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) stands among the most promising methods due to its simple theoretical fundament and exceptional flexibility. However, limited availability of user-friendly programs that perform ABC analysis renders it difficult to implement, and hence programming skills are frequently required. In addition, there is limited availability of programs able to deal with heterochronous data. Here we present the software BaySICS: Bayesian Statistical Inference of Coalescent Simulations. BaySICS provides an integrated and user-friendly platform that performs ABC analyses by means of coalescent simulations from DNA sequence data. It estimates historical demographic population parameters and performs hypothesis testing by means of Bayes factors obtained from model comparisons. Although providing specific features that improve inference from datasets with heterochronous data, BaySICS also has several capabilities making it a suitable tool for analysing contemporary genetic datasets. Those capabilities include joint analysis of independent tables, a graphical interface and the implementation of Markov-chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods.

Two millennia of forest history deduced from closed depressions in the Lorrain plain (North-eastern, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etienne, David; Ruffaldi, Pascale; Ritz, Frederic; Dupouey, Jean Luc; Dambrine, Etienne

2010-05-01

Recent archaeological surveys and ecological investigations in large "ancient" forests have shown that these areas had been often cultivated during the Roman or Medieval periods, and that this former land use is still deeply influencing present soil properties and plant biodiversity. This new perspective has boosted the research for sediment archives describing the state of forests across the archaeological and historical periods, especially in low altitude forest. Closed depressions (CD) or small hollows (over 30 000 CDs) are found in many silty plains of North-Western Europe (north-eastern France, Luxemburg and Belgium). They are defined as small (100 to 400 m²) closed wetlands, mostly supplied by rainwater. Their origin is debated. Recent coring campaigns in CDs of Lorraine (north-eastern France), 3 to 5 meters thick sediment cores were retrieved. It opened the way for palynological and pedological reconstruction of former landscapes. Here we present a sediment analysis of four peaty CDs (Assenoncourt, Römersberg, Sarrebourg and St Jean), located in different low altitude beech (Fagus) and oak (Quercus) forests, on silty clay soils, 50km from Nancy. As the oldest available map (Naudins, dated from 1728 to 1739) indicated forest boundaries similar to the present ones, these forests were considered as ancient forests. The sedimentation begins during the second Iron Age or Roman period. By this time, pollen analyses show an open landscape (70% of Non Arboreal Pollen), composed mostly by grassland (Plantago major/media, Poaceae and Asteraceae) and cropland (Cerealia-type, Centaurea cyanus). Around the 5th century AD, coinciding with the collapse of the Roman Empire, the pollen sequences describe rapid afforestation by Betula and Corylus, and later Carpinus forest. From the 8th century AD, Carpinus decreases in favour of Quercus which may reflect an anthropogenic clearing. From the 10th to the 14th century AD, croplands expand again with cultivation of hemp (Cannabis-type) and rye (Secale-type). From the 15th to the 19th century AD, pollen diagrams are similar at three sites and differ from the fourth. At Assenoncourt, St Jean and Römersberg, the contribution of Quercus, Carpinus and Fagus remains almost constant: 40%, 10% and 10%. This pattern may be related to short rotation forestry management applied in order to provide fuel wood to the local salt industry. At the fourth site (Sarrebourg), pollen assemblage varies with successive Quercus and Carpinus phases, following a natural sylvicultural evolution. Finally, the present-day forest extension took place during the 19th century with the replacement of wood by coal in the salt industry and the recent collapse of this salt industry during the 20th century. This study confirms, in the context of low altitude forests with heavy soils, what had been observed on shallow calcareous soils of the Lorrain plateau. Most of our state forests, that were thought to be "very ancient" or "immemorial" forest, have been managed for agriculture in the deep past. Because agriculture lands were often limed, fertilized, and eroded, this former agriculture use may to a large extent explain present soil properties and, as a consequence, present biodiversity.

Anaysis of the quality of image data required by the LANDSAT-4 Thematic Mapper and Multispectral Scanner. [agricultural and forest cover types in California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colwell, R. N. (Principal Investigator)

1984-01-01

The spatial, geometric, and radiometric qualities of LANDSAT 4 thematic mapper (TM) and multispectral scanner (MSS) data were evaluated by interpreting, through visual and computer means, film and digital products for selected agricultural and forest cover types in California. Multispectral analyses employing Bayesian maximum likelihood, discrete relaxation, and unsupervised clustering algorithms were used to compare the usefulness of TM and MSS data for discriminating individual cover types. Some of the significant results are as follows: (1) for maximizing the interpretability of agricultural and forest resources, TM color composites should contain spectral bands in the visible, near-reflectance infrared, and middle-reflectance infrared regions, namely TM 4 and TM % and must contain TM 4 in all cases even at the expense of excluding TM 5; (2) using enlarged TM film products, planimetric accuracy of mapped poins was within 91 meters (RMSE east) and 117 meters (RMSE north); (3) using TM digital products, planimetric accuracy of mapped points was within 12.0 meters (RMSE east) and 13.7 meters (RMSE north); and (4) applying a contextual classification algorithm to TM data provided classification accuracies competitive with Bayesian maximum likelihood.

The Ancient Art of Silk Painting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yonker, Kim

2010-01-01

In this article, the author describes a silk-painting project with a sea-creature theme for eighth-grade students. Other themes can be used such as geometric quilt designs, tropical rain forest, large flowers, Art Nouveau motifs, portraits and more. (Contains 2 resources.)

National-scale aboveground biomass geostatistical mapping with FIA inventory and GLAS data: Preparation for sparsely sampled lidar assisted forest inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babcock, C. R.; Finley, A. O.; Andersen, H. E.; Moskal, L. M.; Morton, D. C.; Cook, B.; Nelson, R.

2017-12-01

Upcoming satellite lidar missions, such as GEDI and IceSat-2, are designed to collect laser altimetry data from space for narrow bands along orbital tracts. As a result lidar metric sets derived from these sources will not be of complete spatial coverage. This lack of complete coverage, or sparsity, means traditional regression approaches that consider lidar metrics as explanatory variables (without error) cannot be used to generate wall-to-wall maps of forest inventory variables. We implement a coregionalization framework to jointly model sparsely sampled lidar information and point-referenced forest variable measurements to create wall-to-wall maps with full probabilistic uncertainty quantification of all inputs. We inform the model with USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) in-situ forest measurements and GLAS lidar data to spatially predict aboveground forest biomass (AGB) across the contiguous US. We cast our model within a Bayesian hierarchical framework to better model complex space-varying correlation structures among the lidar metrics and FIA data, which yields improved prediction and uncertainty assessment. To circumvent computational difficulties that arise when fitting complex geostatistical models to massive datasets, we use a Nearest Neighbor Gaussian process (NNGP) prior. Results indicate that a coregionalization modeling approach to leveraging sampled lidar data to improve AGB estimation is effective. Further, fitting the coregionalization model within a Bayesian mode of inference allows for AGB quantification across scales ranging from individual pixel estimates of AGB density to total AGB for the continental US with uncertainty. The coregionalization framework examined here is directly applicable to future spaceborne lidar acquisitions from GEDI and IceSat-2. Pairing these lidar sources with the extensive FIA forest monitoring plot network using a joint prediction framework, such as the coregionalization model explored here, offers the potential to improve forest AGB accounting certainty and provide maps for post-model fitting analysis of the spatial distribution of AGB.

High-Throughput DNA sequencing of ancient wood.

PubMed

Wagner, Stefanie; Lagane, Frédéric; Seguin-Orlando, Andaine; Schubert, Mikkel; Leroy, Thibault; Guichoux, Erwan; Chancerel, Emilie; Bech-Hebelstrup, Inger; Bernard, Vincent; Billard, Cyrille; Billaud, Yves; Bolliger, Matthias; Croutsch, Christophe; Čufar, Katarina; Eynaud, Frédérique; Heussner, Karl Uwe; Köninger, Joachim; Langenegger, Fabien; Leroy, Frédéric; Lima, Christine; Martinelli, Nicoletta; Momber, Garry; Billamboz, André; Nelle, Oliver; Palomo, Antoni; Piqué, Raquel; Ramstein, Marianne; Schweichel, Roswitha; Stäuble, Harald; Tegel, Willy; Terradas, Xavier; Verdin, Florence; Plomion, Christophe; Kremer, Antoine; Orlando, Ludovic

2018-03-01

Reconstructing the colonization and demographic dynamics that gave rise to extant forests is essential to forecasts of forest responses to environmental changes. Classical approaches to map how population of trees changed through space and time largely rely on pollen distribution patterns, with only a limited number of studies exploiting DNA molecules preserved in wooden tree archaeological and subfossil remains. Here, we advance such analyses by applying high-throughput (HTS) DNA sequencing to wood archaeological and subfossil material for the first time, using a comprehensive sample of 167 European white oak waterlogged remains spanning a large temporal (from 550 to 9,800 years) and geographical range across Europe. The successful characterization of the endogenous DNA and exogenous microbial DNA of 140 (~83%) samples helped the identification of environmental conditions favouring long-term DNA preservation in wood remains, and started to unveil the first trends in the DNA decay process in wood material. Additionally, the maternally inherited chloroplast haplotypes of 21 samples from three periods of forest human-induced use (Neolithic, Bronze Age and Middle Ages) were found to be consistent with those of modern populations growing in the same geographic areas. Our work paves the way for further studies aiming at using ancient DNA preserved in wood to reconstruct the micro-evolutionary response of trees to climate change and human forest management. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Glaciation Effects on the Phylogeographic Structure of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae) in the Southern Andes

PubMed Central

Palma, R. Eduardo; Boric-Bargetto, Dusan; Torres-Pérez, Fernando; Hernández, Cristián E.; Yates, Terry L.

2012-01-01

The long-tailed pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Sigmodontinae), the major reservoir of Hantavirus in Chile and Patagonian Argentina, is widely distributed in the Mediterranean, Temperate and Patagonian Forests of Chile, as well as in adjacent areas in southern Argentina. We used molecular data to evaluate the effects of the last glacial event on the phylogeographic structure of this species. We examined if historical Pleistocene events had affected genetic variation and spatial distribution of this species along its distributional range. We sampled 223 individuals representing 47 localities along the species range, and sequenced the hypervariable domain I of the mtDNA control region. Aligned sequences were analyzed using haplotype network, Bayesian population structure and demographic analyses. Analysis of population structure and the haplotype network inferred three genetic clusters along the distribution of O. longicaudatus that mostly agreed with the three major ecogeographic regions in Chile: Mediterranean, Temperate Forests and Patagonian Forests. Bayesian Skyline Plots showed constant population sizes through time in all three clusters followed by an increase after and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; between 26,000–13,000 years ago). Neutrality tests and the “g” parameter also suggest that populations of O. longicaudatus experienced demographic expansion across the species entire range. Past climate shifts have influenced population structure and lineage variation of O. longicaudatus. This species remained in refugia areas during Pleistocene times in southern Temperate Forests (and adjacent areas in Patagonia). From these refugia, O. longicaudatus experienced demographic expansions into Patagonian Forests and central Mediterranean Chile using glacial retreats. PMID:22396751

Glaciation effects on the phylogeographic structure of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae) in the southern Andes.

PubMed

Palma, R Eduardo; Boric-Bargetto, Dusan; Torres-Pérez, Fernando; Hernández, Cristián E; Yates, Terry L

2012-01-01

The long-tailed pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Sigmodontinae), the major reservoir of Hantavirus in Chile and Patagonian Argentina, is widely distributed in the Mediterranean, Temperate and Patagonian Forests of Chile, as well as in adjacent areas in southern Argentina. We used molecular data to evaluate the effects of the last glacial event on the phylogeographic structure of this species. We examined if historical Pleistocene events had affected genetic variation and spatial distribution of this species along its distributional range. We sampled 223 individuals representing 47 localities along the species range, and sequenced the hypervariable domain I of the mtDNA control region. Aligned sequences were analyzed using haplotype network, bayesian population structure and demographic analyses. Analysis of population structure and the haplotype network inferred three genetic clusters along the distribution of O. longicaudatus that mostly agreed with the three major ecogeographic regions in Chile: Mediterranean, Temperate Forests and Patagonian Forests. Bayesian Skyline Plots showed constant population sizes through time in all three clusters followed by an increase after and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; between 26,000-13,000 years ago). Neutrality tests and the "g" parameter also suggest that populations of O. longicaudatus experienced demographic expansion across the species entire range. Past climate shifts have influenced population structure and lineage variation of O. longicaudatus. This species remained in refugia areas during Pleistocene times in southern Temperate Forests (and adjacent areas in Patagonia). From these refugia, O. longicaudatus experienced demographic expansions into Patagonian Forests and central Mediterranean Chile using glacial retreats.

Tree Biomass Estimation of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) Based on Bayesian Method

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jianguo

2013-01-01

Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) is the most important conifer species for timber production with huge distribution area in southern China. Accurate estimation of biomass is required for accounting and monitoring Chinese forest carbon stocking. In the study, allometric equation was used to analyze tree biomass of Chinese fir. The common methods for estimating allometric model have taken the classical approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability. However, many different biotic and abiotic factors introduce variability in Chinese fir biomass model, suggesting that parameters of biomass model are better represented by probability distributions rather than fixed values as classical method. To deal with the problem, Bayesian method was used for estimating Chinese fir biomass model. In the Bayesian framework, two priors were introduced: non-informative priors and informative priors. For informative priors, 32 biomass equations of Chinese fir were collected from published literature in the paper. The parameter distributions from published literature were regarded as prior distributions in Bayesian model for estimating Chinese fir biomass. Therefore, the Bayesian method with informative priors was better than non-informative priors and classical method, which provides a reasonable method for estimating Chinese fir biomass. PMID:24278198

Tree biomass estimation of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) based on Bayesian method.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiongqing; Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo

2013-01-01

Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) is the most important conifer species for timber production with huge distribution area in southern China. Accurate estimation of biomass is required for accounting and monitoring Chinese forest carbon stocking. In the study, allometric equation W = a(D2H)b was used to analyze tree biomass of Chinese fir. The common methods for estimating allometric model have taken the classical approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability. However, many different biotic and abiotic factors introduce variability in Chinese fir biomass model, suggesting that parameters of biomass model are better represented by probability distributions rather than fixed values as classical method. To deal with the problem, Bayesian method was used for estimating Chinese fir biomass model. In the Bayesian framework, two priors were introduced: non-informative priors and informative priors. For informative priors, 32 biomass equations of Chinese fir were collected from published literature in the paper. The parameter distributions from published literature were regarded as prior distributions in Bayesian model for estimating Chinese fir biomass. Therefore, the Bayesian method with informative priors was better than non-informative priors and classical method, which provides a reasonable method for estimating Chinese fir biomass.

Ancient and modern DNA reveal dynamics of domestication and cross-continental dispersal of the dromedary

PubMed Central

Almathen, Faisal; Charruau, Pauline; Mohandesan, Elmira; Mwacharo, Joram M.; Orozco-terWengel, Pablo; Pitt, Daniel; Abdussamad, Abdussamad M.; Uerpmann, Margarethe; Uerpmann, Hans-Peter; De Cupere, Bea; Magee, Peter; Alnaqeeb, Majed A.; Salim, Bashir; Raziq, Abdul; Dessie, Tadelle; Abdelhadi, Omer M.; Banabazi, Mohammad H.; Al-Eknah, Marzook; Walzer, Chris; Faye, Bernard; Hofreiter, Michael; Peters, Joris; Hanotte, Olivier

2016-01-01

Dromedaries have been fundamental to the development of human societies in arid landscapes and for long-distance trade across hostile hot terrains for 3,000 y. Today they continue to be an important livestock resource in marginal agro-ecological zones. However, the history of dromedary domestication and the influence of ancient trading networks on their genetic structure have remained elusive. We combined ancient DNA sequences of wild and early-domesticated dromedary samples from arid regions with nuclear microsatellite and mitochondrial genotype information from 1,083 extant animals collected across the species’ range. We observe little phylogeographic signal in the modern population, indicative of extensive gene flow and virtually affecting all regions except East Africa, where dromedary populations have remained relatively isolated. In agreement with archaeological findings, we identify wild dromedaries from the southeast Arabian Peninsula among the founders of the domestic dromedary gene pool. Approximate Bayesian computations further support the “restocking from the wild” hypothesis, with an initial domestication followed by introgression from individuals from wild, now-extinct populations. Compared with other livestock, which show a long history of gene flow with their wild ancestors, we find a high initial diversity relative to the native distribution of the wild ancestor on the Arabian Peninsula and to the brief coexistence of early-domesticated and wild individuals. This study also demonstrates the potential to retrieve ancient DNA sequences from osseous remains excavated in hot and dry desert environments. PMID:27162355

Large-scale pattern of genetic differentiation within African rainforest trees: insights on the roles of ecological gradients and past climate changes on the evolution of Erythrophleum spp (Fabaceae).

PubMed

Duminil, Jerome; Brown, Richard P; Ewédjè, Eben-Ezer B K; Mardulyn, Patrick; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Hardy, Olivier J

2013-09-12

The evolutionary events that have shaped biodiversity patterns in the African rainforests are still poorly documented. Past forest fragmentation and ecological gradients have been advocated as important drivers of genetic differentiation but their respective roles remain unclear. Using nuclear microsatellites (nSSRs) and chloroplast non-coding sequences (pDNA), we characterised the spatial genetic structure of Erythrophleum (Fabaceae) forest trees in West and Central Africa (Guinea Region, GR). This widespread genus displays a wide ecological amplitude and taxonomists recognize two forest tree species, E. ivorense and E. suaveolens, which are difficult to distinguish in the field and often confused. Bayesian-clustering applied on nSSRs of a blind sample of 648 specimens identified three major gene pools showing no or very limited introgression. They present parapatric distributions correlated to rainfall gradients and forest types. One gene pool is restricted to coastal evergreen forests and corresponds to E. ivorense; a second one is found in gallery forests from the dry forest zone of West Africa and North-West Cameroon and corresponds to West-African E. suaveolens; the third gene pool occurs in semi-evergreen forests and corresponds to Central African E. suaveolens. These gene pools have mostly unique pDNA haplotypes but they do not form reciprocally monophyletic clades. Nevertheless, pDNA molecular dating indicates that the divergence between E. ivorense and Central African E. suaveolens predates the Pleistocene. Further Bayesian-clustering applied within each major gene pool identified diffuse genetic discontinuities (minor gene pools displaying substantial introgression) at a latitude between 0 and 2°N in Central Africa for both species, and at a longitude between 5° and 8°E for E. ivorense. Moreover, we detected evidence of past population declines which are consistent with historical habitat fragmentation induced by Pleistocene climate changes. Overall, deep genetic differentiation (major gene pools) follows ecological gradients that may be at the origin of speciation, while diffuse differentiation (minor gene pools) are tentatively interpreted as the signature of past forest fragmentation induced by past climate changes.

Large-scale pattern of genetic differentiation within African rainforest trees: insights on the roles of ecological gradients and past climate changes on the evolution of Erythrophleum spp (Fabaceae)

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The evolutionary events that have shaped biodiversity patterns in the African rainforests are still poorly documented. Past forest fragmentation and ecological gradients have been advocated as important drivers of genetic differentiation but their respective roles remain unclear. Using nuclear microsatellites (nSSRs) and chloroplast non-coding sequences (pDNA), we characterised the spatial genetic structure of Erythrophleum (Fabaceae) forest trees in West and Central Africa (Guinea Region, GR). This widespread genus displays a wide ecological amplitude and taxonomists recognize two forest tree species, E. ivorense and E. suaveolens, which are difficult to distinguish in the field and often confused. Results Bayesian-clustering applied on nSSRs of a blind sample of 648 specimens identified three major gene pools showing no or very limited introgression. They present parapatric distributions correlated to rainfall gradients and forest types. One gene pool is restricted to coastal evergreen forests and corresponds to E. ivorense; a second one is found in gallery forests from the dry forest zone of West Africa and North-West Cameroon and corresponds to West-African E. suaveolens; the third gene pool occurs in semi-evergreen forests and corresponds to Central African E. suaveolens. These gene pools have mostly unique pDNA haplotypes but they do not form reciprocally monophyletic clades. Nevertheless, pDNA molecular dating indicates that the divergence between E. ivorense and Central African E. suaveolens predates the Pleistocene. Further Bayesian-clustering applied within each major gene pool identified diffuse genetic discontinuities (minor gene pools displaying substantial introgression) at a latitude between 0 and 2°N in Central Africa for both species, and at a longitude between 5° and 8°E for E. ivorense. Moreover, we detected evidence of past population declines which are consistent with historical habitat fragmentation induced by Pleistocene climate changes. Conclusions Overall, deep genetic differentiation (major gene pools) follows ecological gradients that may be at the origin of speciation, while diffuse differentiation (minor gene pools) are tentatively interpreted as the signature of past forest fragmentation induced by past climate changes. PMID:24028582

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for predicting multiple forest variables using waveform LiDAR, hyperspectral imagery, and large inventory datasets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finley, Andrew O.; Banerjee, Sudipto; Cook, Bruce D.; Bradford, John B.

2013-01-01

In this paper we detail a multivariate spatial regression model that couples LiDAR, hyperspectral and forest inventory data to predict forest outcome variables at a high spatial resolution. The proposed model is used to analyze forest inventory data collected on the US Forest Service Penobscot Experimental Forest (PEF), ME, USA. In addition to helping meet the regression model's assumptions, results from the PEF analysis suggest that the addition of multivariate spatial random effects improves model fit and predictive ability, compared with two commonly applied modeling approaches. This improvement results from explicitly modeling the covariation among forest outcome variables and spatial dependence among observations through the random effects. Direct application of such multivariate models to even moderately large datasets is often computationally infeasible because of cubic order matrix algorithms involved in estimation. We apply a spatial dimension reduction technique to help overcome this computational hurdle without sacrificing richness in modeling.

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

Rhododendron gone wild: conservation implications of Rhododendron ponticum in Britain.

PubMed

Rotherham , I D

2001-02-01

Wild rhododendron (Rhododendron ponticum) is widely regarded by conservationists as a scourge of the British countryside. However, in its native haunts such as Turkey, it is also one of Europe's most threatened species, with ancient rhododendron forests now reduced to only a few hectares.

LiDAR, geophysical and field surveys at Ancient Epomanduodurum site and its surrounding country (Doubs, Eastern France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laplaige, Clement; Bossuet, Gilles; Thivet, Matthieu

2010-05-01

Integrated geophysical studies were carried out over several years, at Mandeure-Mathay (Franche-Comté Region, Eastern France) for the archaeological evaluation of ancient Epomanduodurum. The site is of major scientific interest to understand the territorial structure of earlier agglomerations in Eastern Gaul at the end of the Iron Age and during the Roman period. As regards its size, urban equipment, monuments and function, the ancient town is considered rating second behind the civitas capital of Sequani, Besançon-Vesontio. It is located in the Doubs valley, where the plain of Alsace opens into the marches of Burgundy, in a traffic zone between the Vosges and the Jura. This location allows transit between the Rhône valley and the Rhein plain, through the Saône and Doubs valleys. This geographical situation was a significant factor in the creation of the late Iron Age settlement, later to turn into a major Gallo-roman town. The whole site of the Ancient town includes urban centre and two artisan suburbs. The buried ruins stretch on more than 500 hectares outside and inside a meander of the Doubs River. From the beginning of the survey, in 2001, high resolution and non invasive geophysical methods (magnetic mapping and Automatic Restivity Profiling (ARP) were performed on large scale, both on the terrace and in the floodplain). Excavations associated to geophysical prospection allow to produce a general plan of the Gallo roman structures and to reconstruct the settlement evolution. While human occupation on open land is certified by a lot of indications, on the contrary, the forest-covered zones on table-land appear as less documented areas. The explanation is that some of the classic methods (such as aerial reconnaissance and field walking) are less efficient in the archaeological prospection of table-lands and hills, naturally marked by omnipresent forest. In our new research program (LIEPPEC and PCR Mandeure, 2008-2010), it appears necessary to better understand the connections, both in time and in space, between human occupation and the surrounding region, not only at the Roman period and the late Iron Age, but also during prehistoric, medieval and modern periods. In that way, we have defined a square window of 80 km², surrounding the Ancient site of Epomanduodurum This study is based on the LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) technology, particularly adapted for the detection and location of cultural resources (ancient fields, buried structures, graves) in forested environment and a multi-data crossing, including: - Geophysical prospecting (principally magnetic, electromagnetic and electric) - Studies of ancient maps, plans (18th and 19th) and archaeological inventories in order to spot the location of vestiges and the utilisation of former soils - Aerial and satellite picture analysis - Field walking and metal detector prospection in order to precise micro topographic anomalies obtained by LiDAR survey. We received first LiDAR results during August 2009 and the use of part of this data allows us to find new sites from different periods. We will present some results, mainly in an Ancient artisanal district built on a Latenian necropolis, on hilltop sites and also on mine plant.

Anthropogenic aerosols as a source of ancient dissolved organic matter in glaciers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stubbins, Aron; Hood, Eran; Raymond, Peter A.; Aiken, George R.; Sleighter, Rachel L.; Hernes, Peter J.; Butman, David; Hatcher, Patrick G.; Striegl, Robert G.; Schuster, Paul F.; Abdulla, Hussain A.N.; Vermilyea, Andrew W.; Scott, Durelle T.; Spencer, Robert G.M.

2012-01-01

Glacier-derived dissolved organic matter represents a quantitatively significant source of ancient, yet highly bioavailable carbon to downstream ecosystems. This finding runs counter to logical perceptions of age–reactivity relationships, in which the least reactive material withstands degradation the longest and is therefore the oldest. The remnants of ancient peatlands and forests overrun by glaciers have been invoked as the source of this organic matter. Here, we examine the radiocarbon age and chemical composition of dissolved organic matter in snow, glacier surface water, ice and glacier outflow samples from Alaska to determine the origin of the organic matter. Low levels of compounds derived from vascular plants indicate that the organic matter does not originate from forests or peatlands. Instead, we show that the organic matter on the surface of the glaciers is radiocarbon depleted, consistent with an anthropogenic aerosol source. Fluorescence spectrophotometry measurements reveal the presence of protein-like compounds of microbial or aerosol origin. In addition, ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry measurements document the presence of combustion products found in anthropogenic aerosols. Based on the presence of these compounds, we suggest that aerosols derived from fossil fuel burning are a source of pre-aged organic matter to glacier surfaces. Furthermore, we show that the molecular signature of the organic matter is conserved in snow, glacier water and outflow, suggesting that the anthropogenic carbon is exported relatively unchanged in glacier outflows.

Tropical forests are both evolutionary cradles and museums of leaf beetle diversity.

PubMed

McKenna, Duane D; Farrell, Brian D

2006-07-18

The high extant species diversity of tropical lineages of organisms is usually portrayed as a relatively recent and rapid development or as a consequence of the gradual accumulation or preservation of species over time. These explanations have led to alternative views of tropical forests as evolutionary "cradles" or "museums" of diversity, depending on the organisms under study. However, biogeographic and fossil evidence implies that the evolutionary histories of diversification among tropical organisms may be expected to exhibit characteristics of both cradle and museum models. This possibility has not been explored in detail for any group of terrestrial tropical organisms. From an extensively sampled molecular phylogeny of herbivorous Neotropical leaf beetles in the genus Cephaloleia, we present evidence for (i) comparatively ancient Paleocene-Eocene adaptive radiation associated with global warming and Cenozoic maximum global temperatures, (ii) moderately ancient lineage-specific diversification coincident with the Oligocene adaptive radiation of Cephaloleia host plants in the genus Heliconia, and (iii) relatively recent Miocene-Pliocene diversification coincident with the collision of the Panama arc with South America and subsequent bridging of the Isthmus of Panama. These results demonstrate that, for Cephaloleia and perhaps other lineages of organisms, tropical forests are at the same time both evolutionary cradles and museums of diversity.

Historical climate change and speciation: neotropical seasonally dry forest plants show patterns of both tertiary and quaternary diversification.

PubMed Central

Pennington, R Toby; Lavin, Matt; Prado, Darién E; Pendry, Colin A; Pell, Susan K; Butterworth, Charles A

2004-01-01

Historical climate changes have had a major effect on the distribution and evolution of plant species in the neotropics. What is more controversial is whether relatively recent Pleistocene climatic changes have driven speciation, or whether neotropical species diversity is more ancient. This question is addressed using evolutionary rate analysis of sequence data of nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacers in diverse taxa occupying neotropical seasonally dry forests, including Ruprechtia (Polygonaceae), robinioid legumes (Fabaceae), Chaetocalyx and Nissolia (Fabaceae), and Loxopterygium (Anacardiaceae). Species diversifications in these taxa occurred both during and before the Pleistocene in Central America, but were primarily pre-Pleistocene in South America. This indicates plausibility both for models that predict tropical species diversity to be recent and that invoke a role for Pleistocene climatic change, and those that consider it ancient and implicate geological factors such as the Andean orogeny and the closure of the Panama Isthmus. Cladistic vicariance analysis was attempted to identify common factors underlying evolution in these groups. In spite of the similar Mid-Miocene to Pliocene ages of the study taxa, and their high degree of endemism in the different fragments of South American dry forests, the analysis yielded equivocal, non-robust patterns of area relationships. PMID:15212100

Comparison Analysis of Recognition Algorithms of Forest-Cover Objects on Hyperspectral Air-Borne and Space-Borne Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozoderov, V. V.; Kondranin, T. V.; Dmitriev, E. V.

2017-12-01

The basic model for the recognition of natural and anthropogenic objects using their spectral and textural features is described in the problem of hyperspectral air-borne and space-borne imagery processing. The model is based on improvements of the Bayesian classifier that is a computational procedure of statistical decision making in machine-learning methods of pattern recognition. The principal component method is implemented to decompose the hyperspectral measurements on the basis of empirical orthogonal functions. Application examples are shown of various modifications of the Bayesian classifier and Support Vector Machine method. Examples are provided of comparing these classifiers and a metrical classifier that operates on finding the minimal Euclidean distance between different points and sets in the multidimensional feature space. A comparison is also carried out with the " K-weighted neighbors" method that is close to the nonparametric Bayesian classifier.

Bayesian analyses of Yemeni mitochondrial genomes suggest multiple migration events with Africa and Western Eurasia.

PubMed

Vyas, Deven N; Kitchen, Andrew; Miró-Herrans, Aida T; Pearson, Laurel N; Al-Meeri, Ali; Mulligan, Connie J

2016-03-01

Anatomically, modern humans are thought to have migrated out of Africa ∼60,000 years ago in the first successful global dispersal. This initial migration may have passed through Yemen, a region that has experienced multiple migrations events with Africa and Eurasia throughout human history. We use Bayesian phylogenetics to determine how ancient and recent migrations have shaped Yemeni mitogenomic variation. We sequenced 113 mitogenomes from multiple Yemeni regions with a focus on haplogroups M, N, and L3(xM,N) as these groups have the oldest evolutionary history outside of Africa. We performed Bayesian evolutionary analyses to generate time-measured phylogenies calibrated by Neanderthal and Denisovan mitogenomes in order to determine the age of Yemeni-specific clades. As defined by Yemeni monophyly, Yemeni in situ evolution is limited to the Holocene or latest Pleistocene (ages of clades in subhaplogroups L3b1a1a, L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, N1a1a3, and N1a3 range from 2 to 14 kya) and is often situated within broader Horn of Africa/southern Arabia in situ evolution (L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, and N1a1a3 ages range from 7 to 29 kya). Five subhaplogroups show no monophyly and are candidates for Holocene migration into Yemen (L0a2a2a, L3d1a1a, L3i2, M1a1b, and N1b1a). Yemeni mitogenomes are largely the product of Holocene migration, and subsequent in situ evolution, from Africa and western Eurasia. However, we hypothesize that recent population movements may obscure the genetic signature of more ancient migrations. Additional research, e.g., analyses of Yemeni nuclear genetic data, is needed to better reconstruct the complex population and migration histories associated with Out of Africa. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Authenticated DNA from Ancient Wood Remains

PubMed Central

LIEPELT, SASCHA; SPERISEN, CHRISTOPH; DEGUILLOUX, MARIE-FRANCE; PETIT, REMY J.; KISSLING, ROY; SPENCER, MATTHEW; DE BEAULIEU, JACQUES-LOUIS; TABERLET, PIERRE; GIELLY, LUDOVIC; ZIEGENHAGEN, BIRGIT

2006-01-01

• Background The reconstruction of biological processes and human activities during the last glacial cycle relies mainly on data from biological remains. Highly abundant tissues, such as wood, are candidates for a genetic analysis of past populations. While well-authenticated DNA has now been recovered from various fossil remains, the final ‘proof’ is still missing for wood, despite some promising studies. • Scope The goal of this study was to determine if ancient wood can be analysed routinely in studies of archaeology and palaeogenetics. An experiment was designed which included blind testing, independent replicates, extensive contamination controls and rigorous statistical tests. Ten samples of ancient wood from major European forest tree genera were analysed with plastid DNA markers. • Conclusions Authentic DNA was retrieved from wood samples up to 1000 years of age. A new tool for real-time vegetation history and archaeology is ready to use. PMID:16987920

Précis of bayesian rationality: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning.

PubMed

Oaksford, Mike; Chater, Nick

2009-02-01

According to Aristotle, humans are the rational animal. The borderline between rationality and irrationality is fundamental to many aspects of human life including the law, mental health, and language interpretation. But what is it to be rational? One answer, deeply embedded in the Western intellectual tradition since ancient Greece, is that rationality concerns reasoning according to the rules of logic--the formal theory that specifies the inferential connections that hold with certainty between propositions. Piaget viewed logical reasoning as defining the end-point of cognitive development; and contemporary psychology of reasoning has focussed on comparing human reasoning against logical standards. Bayesian Rationality argues that rationality is defined instead by the ability to reason about uncertainty. Although people are typically poor at numerical reasoning about probability, human thought is sensitive to subtle patterns of qualitative Bayesian, probabilistic reasoning. In Chapters 1-4 of Bayesian Rationality (Oaksford & Chater 2007), the case is made that cognition in general, and human everyday reasoning in particular, is best viewed as solving probabilistic, rather than logical, inference problems. In Chapters 5-7 the psychology of "deductive" reasoning is tackled head-on: It is argued that purportedly "logical" reasoning problems, revealing apparently irrational behaviour, are better understood from a probabilistic point of view. Data from conditional reasoning, Wason's selection task, and syllogistic inference are captured by recasting these problems probabilistically. The probabilistic approach makes a variety of novel predictions which have been experimentally confirmed. The book considers the implications of this work, and the wider "probabilistic turn" in cognitive science and artificial intelligence, for understanding human rationality.

Using ancient DNA to study the origins and dispersal of ancestral Polynesian chickens across the Pacific

PubMed Central

Thomson, Vicki A.; Lebrasseur, Ophélie; Austin, Jeremy J.; Hunt, Terry L.; Burney, David A.; Denham, Tim; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Wood, Jamie R.; Gongora, Jaime; Girdland Flink, Linus; Linderholm, Anna; Dobney, Keith; Larson, Greger; Cooper, Alan

2014-01-01

The human colonization of Remote Oceania remains one of the great feats of exploration in history, proceeding east from Asia across the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean. Human commensal and domesticated species were widely transported as part of this diaspora, possibly as far as South America. We sequenced mitochondrial control region DNA from 122 modern and 22 ancient chicken specimens from Polynesia and Island Southeast Asia and used these together with Bayesian modeling methods to examine the human dispersal of chickens across this area. We show that specific techniques are essential to remove contaminating modern DNA from experiments, which appear to have impacted previous studies of Pacific chickens. In contrast to previous reports, we find that all ancient specimens and a high proportion of the modern chickens possess a group of unique, closely related haplotypes found only in the Pacific. This group of haplotypes appears to represent the authentic founding mitochondrial DNA chicken lineages transported across the Pacific, and allows the early dispersal of chickens across Micronesia and Polynesia to be modeled. Importantly, chickens carrying this genetic signature persist on several Pacific islands at high frequencies, suggesting that the original Polynesian chicken lineages may still survive. No early South American chicken samples have been detected with the diagnostic Polynesian mtDNA haplotypes, arguing against reports that chickens provide evidence of Polynesian contact with pre-European South America. Two modern specimens from the Philippines carry haplotypes similar to the ancient Pacific samples, providing clues about a potential homeland for the Polynesian chicken. PMID:24639505

The evolutionary history of Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx (Myrtaceae) corroborates historically stable areas in the southern Atlantic forests

PubMed Central

de Oliveira Bünger, Mariana; Fernanda Mazine, Fiorella; Forest, Félix; Leandro Bueno, Marcelo; Renato Stehmann, João; Lucas, Eve J.

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx Nied. includes 14 species endemic to the Neotropics, mostly distributed in the Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. Here the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group is presented, and this phylogeny is used as the basis to evaluate the recent infrageneric classification in Eugenia sensu lato (s.l.) to test the history of the evolution of traits in the group and test hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. Methods A total of 42 taxa were sampled, of which 14 were Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx for one nuclear (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, rpl16, trnL-rpl32 and trnQ-rps16). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian analysis and maximum likelihood. Additionally, ancestral area analysis and modelling methods were used to estimate species dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable (refuges) and unstable areas. Key Results Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx is paraphyletic and the two clades recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Cerrado and south-eastern species and a difference in the composition of species from north-eastern and south-eastern Atlantic forest. Refugia and stable areas identified within unstable areas suggest that these areas were important to maintain diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. Conclusion This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important historical questions for Eugenia s.l. within an evolutionary context, supporting the need for better taxonomic study of one of the largest genera in the Neotropics. Furthermore, valuable insight is offered into diversification and biome shifts of plant species in the highly environmentally impacted Atlantic forest of South America. Evidence is presented that climate stability in the south-eastern Atlantic forest during the Quaternary contributed to the highest levels of plant diversity in this region that acted as a refugium. PMID:27974324

Methods for identifying SNP interactions: a review on variations of Logic Regression, Random Forest and Bayesian logistic regression.

PubMed

Chen, Carla Chia-Ming; Schwender, Holger; Keith, Jonathan; Nunkesser, Robin; Mengersen, Kerrie; Macrossan, Paula

2011-01-01

Due to advancements in computational ability, enhanced technology and a reduction in the price of genotyping, more data are being generated for understanding genetic associations with diseases and disorders. However, with the availability of large data sets comes the inherent challenges of new methods of statistical analysis and modeling. Considering a complex phenotype may be the effect of a combination of multiple loci, various statistical methods have been developed for identifying genetic epistasis effects. Among these methods, logic regression (LR) is an intriguing approach incorporating tree-like structures. Various methods have built on the original LR to improve different aspects of the model. In this study, we review four variations of LR, namely Logic Feature Selection, Monte Carlo Logic Regression, Genetic Programming for Association Studies, and Modified Logic Regression-Gene Expression Programming, and investigate the performance of each method using simulated and real genotype data. We contrast these with another tree-like approach, namely Random Forests, and a Bayesian logistic regression with stochastic search variable selection.

Living artifacts: The ancient ponderosa pines of the West

Treesearch

Stephen F. Arno; Lars Östlund; Robert E. Keane

2008-01-01

Until late in the nineteenth century, magnificent ponderosa pine forests blanketed much of the inland West. They covered perhaps 30 million acres, an area the size of New York state, spreading across the mountains of New Mexico, Arizona, and California and flourishing throughout the eastern Cascades, the intermountain Pacific Northwest, and the Rocky Mountains...

Burning of forest materials under late Paleozoic high atmospheric oxygen levels

Treesearch

Richard A., Jr. Wildman; Leo J. Hickey; Matthew B. Dickinson; Robert A. Berner; Jennifer M. Robinson; Michael Dietrich; Robert H. Essenhigh; Craig B. Wildman

2004-01-01

Theoretical models suggest that atmospheric oxygen reached concentrations as high as 35% O2 during the past 550 m.y. Previous burning experiments using strips of paper have challenged this idea, concluding that ancient wildfires would have decimated plant life if O2 significantly exceeded its present level of 21%. New...

Fire in the forest

Treesearch

James M. Saveland

1995-01-01

From ancient philosophies to present day science, the ubiquity of change and the process of transformation are core concepts. The primary focus of a recent white paper on disturbance ecology is summed up by the Greek philosopher Heraclitus who stated, "Nothing is permanent but change." Disturbance processes, such as fire, provide a window into the emerging...

Bayesian phylogeny of sucrose transporters: ancient origins, differential expansion and convergent evolution in monocots and dicots

PubMed Central

Peng, Duo; Gu, Xi; Xue, Liang-Jiao; Leebens-Mack, James H.; Tsai, Chung-Jui

2014-01-01

Sucrose transporters (SUTs) are essential for the export and efficient movement of sucrose from source leaves to sink organs in plants. The angiosperm SUT family was previously classified into three or four distinct groups, Types I, II (subgroup IIB), and III, with dicot-specific Type I and monocot-specific Type IIB functioning in phloem loading. To shed light on the underlying drivers of SUT evolution, Bayesian phylogenetic inference was undertaken using 41 sequenced plant genomes, including seven basal lineages at key evolutionary junctures. Our analysis supports four phylogenetically and structurally distinct SUT subfamilies, originating from two ancient groups (AG1 and AG2) that diverged early during terrestrial colonization. In both AG1 and AG2, multiple intron acquisition events in the progenitor vascular plant established the gene structures of modern SUTs. Tonoplastic Type III and plasmalemmal Type II represent evolutionarily conserved descendants of AG1 and AG2, respectively. Type I and Type IIB were previously thought to evolve after the dicot-monocot split. We show, however, that divergence of Type I from Type III SUT predated basal angiosperms, likely associated with evolution of vascular cambium and phloem transport. Type I SUT was subsequently lost in monocots along with vascular cambium, and independent evolution of Type IIB coincided with modified monocot vasculature. Both Type I and Type IIB underwent lineage-specific expansion. In multiple unrelated taxa, the newly-derived SUTs exhibit biased expression in reproductive tissues, suggesting a functional link between phloem loading and reproductive fitness. Convergent evolution of Type I and Type IIB for SUT function in phloem loading and reproductive organs supports the idea that differential vascular development in dicots and monocots is a strong driver for SUT family evolution in angiosperms. PMID:25429293

Soil charcoal to assess the impacts of past human disturbances on tropical forests.

PubMed

Vleminckx, Jason; Morin-Rivat, Julie; Biwolé, Achille B; Daïnou, Kasso; Gillet, Jean-François; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Drouet, Thomas; Hardy, Olivier J

2014-01-01

The canopy of many central African forests is dominated by light-demanding tree species that do not regenerate well under themselves. The prevalence of these species might result from ancient slash-and-burn agricultural activities that created large openings, while a decline of these activities since the colonial period could explain their deficit of regeneration. To verify this hypothesis, we compared soil charcoal abundance, used as a proxy for past slash-and-burn agriculture, and tree species composition assessed on 208 rainforest 0.2 ha plots located in three areas from Southern Cameroon. Species were classified in regeneration guilds (pioneer, non-pioneer light-demanding, shade-bearer) and characterized by their wood-specific gravity, assumed to reflect light requirement. We tested the correlation between soil charcoal abundance and: (i) the relative abundance of each guild, (ii) each species and family abundance and (iii) mean wood-specific gravity. Charcoal was found in 83% of the plots, indicating frequent past forest fires. Radiocarbon dating revealed two periods of fires: "recent" charcoal were on average 300 years old (up to 860 BP, n = 16) and occurred in the uppermost 20 cm soil layer, while "ancient" charcoal were on average 1900 years old (range: 1500 to 2800 BP, n = 43, excluding one sample dated 9400 BP), and found in all soil layers. While we expected a positive correlation between the relative abundance of light-demanding species and charcoal abundance in the upper soil layer, overall there was no evidence that the current heterogeneity in tree species composition can be explained by charcoal abundance in any soil layer. The absence of signal supporting our hypothesis might result from (i) a relatively uniform impact of past slash-and-burn activities, (ii) pedoturbation processes bringing ancient charcoal to the upper soil layer, blurring the signal of centuries-old Human disturbances, or (iii) the prevalence of other environmental factors on species composition.

Historical reconstruction of climatic and elevation preferences and the evolution of cloud forest-adapted tree ferns in Mesoamerica.

PubMed

Sosa, Victoria; Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Ramírez-Barahona, Santiago; Gándara, Etelvina

2016-01-01

Cloud forests, characterized by a persistent, frequent or seasonal low-level cloud cover and fragmented distribution, are one of the most threatened habitats, especially in the Neotropics. Tree ferns are among the most conspicuous elements in these forests, and ferns are restricted to regions in which minimum temperatures rarely drop below freezing and rainfall is high and evenly distributed around the year. Current phylogeographic data suggest that some of the cloud forest-adapted species remained in situ or expanded to the lowlands during glacial cycles and contracted allopatrically during the interglacials. Although the observed genetic signals of population size changes of cloud forest-adapted species including tree ferns correspond to predicted changes by Pleistocene climate change dynamics, the observed patterns of intraspecific lineage divergence showed temporal incongruence. Here we combined phylogenetic analyses, ancestral area reconstruction, and divergence time estimates with climatic and altitudinal data (environmental space) for phenotypic traits of tree fern species to make inferences about evolutionary processes in deep time. We used phylogenetic Bayesian inference and geographic and altitudinal distribution of tree ferns to investigate ancestral area and elevation and environmental preferences of Mesoamerican tree ferns. The phylogeny was then used to estimate divergence times and ask whether the ancestral area and elevation and environmental shifts were linked to climatic events and historical climatic preferences. Bayesian trees retrieved Cyathea, Alsophyla, Gymnosphaera and Sphaeropteris in monophyletic clades. Splits for species in these genera found in Mesoamerican cloud forests are recent, from the Neogene to the Quaternary, Australia was identified as the ancestral area for the clades of these genera, except for Gymnosphaera that was Mesoamerica. Climate tolerance was not divergent from hypothesized ancestors for the most significant variables or elevation. For elevational shifts, we found repeated change from low to high elevations. Our data suggest that representatives of Cyatheaceae main lineages migrated from Australia to Mesoamerican cloud forests in different times and have persisted in these environmentally unstable areas but extant species diverged recentrly from their ancestors.

Historical reconstruction of climatic and elevation preferences and the evolution of cloud forest-adapted tree ferns in Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Cloud forests, characterized by a persistent, frequent or seasonal low-level cloud cover and fragmented distribution, are one of the most threatened habitats, especially in the Neotropics. Tree ferns are among the most conspicuous elements in these forests, and ferns are restricted to regions in which minimum temperatures rarely drop below freezing and rainfall is high and evenly distributed around the year. Current phylogeographic data suggest that some of the cloud forest-adapted species remained in situ or expanded to the lowlands during glacial cycles and contracted allopatrically during the interglacials. Although the observed genetic signals of population size changes of cloud forest-adapted species including tree ferns correspond to predicted changes by Pleistocene climate change dynamics, the observed patterns of intraspecific lineage divergence showed temporal incongruence. Methods Here we combined phylogenetic analyses, ancestral area reconstruction, and divergence time estimates with climatic and altitudinal data (environmental space) for phenotypic traits of tree fern species to make inferences about evolutionary processes in deep time. We used phylogenetic Bayesian inference and geographic and altitudinal distribution of tree ferns to investigate ancestral area and elevation and environmental preferences of Mesoamerican tree ferns. The phylogeny was then used to estimate divergence times and ask whether the ancestral area and elevation and environmental shifts were linked to climatic events and historical climatic preferences. Results Bayesian trees retrieved Cyathea, Alsophyla, Gymnosphaera and Sphaeropteris in monophyletic clades. Splits for species in these genera found in Mesoamerican cloud forests are recent, from the Neogene to the Quaternary, Australia was identified as the ancestral area for the clades of these genera, except for Gymnosphaera that was Mesoamerica. Climate tolerance was not divergent from hypothesized ancestors for the most significant variables or elevation. For elevational shifts, we found repeated change from low to high elevations. Conclusions Our data suggest that representatives of Cyatheaceae main lineages migrated from Australia to Mesoamerican cloud forests in different times and have persisted in these environmentally unstable areas but extant species diverged recentrly from their ancestors. PMID:27896030

Not an ancient relic: the endemic Livistona palms of arid central Australia could have been introduced by humans

PubMed Central

Kondo, Toshiaki; Crisp, Michael D.; Linde, Celeste; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Kawamura, Kensuke; Kaneko, Shingo; Isagi, Yuji

2012-01-01

Livistona mariae is an endemic palm localized in arid central Australia. This species is separated by about 1000 km from its congener L. rigida, which grows distantly in the Roper River and Nicholson–Gregory River catchments in northern Australia. Such an isolated distribution of L. mariae has been assumed to have resulted from contraction of ancestral populations as Australia aridified from the Mid-Miocene (ca 15 Ma). To test this hypothesis at the population level, we examined the genetic relationships among 14 populations of L. mariae and L. rigida using eight nuclear microsatellite loci. Our population tree and Bayesian clustering revealed that these populations comprised two genetically distinct groups that did not correspond to the current classification at species rank, and L. mariae showed closest affinity with L. rigida from Roper River. Furthermore, coalescent divergence-time estimations suggested that the disjunction between the northern populations (within L. rigida) could have originated by intermittent colonization along an ancient river that has been drowned repeatedly by marine transgression. During that time, L. mariae populations could have been established by opportunistic immigrants from Roper River about 15 000 years ago, concurrently with the settlement of indigenous Australians in central Australia, who are thus plausible vectors. Thus, our results rule out the ancient relic hypothesis for the origin of L. mariae. PMID:22398168

Abstract Profiles of Structural Stability Point to Universal Tendencies, Family-Specific Factors, and Ancient Connections between Languages

PubMed Central

Dediu, Dan; Levinson, Stephen C.

2012-01-01

Language is the best example of a cultural evolutionary system, able to retain a phylogenetic signal over many thousands of years. The temporal stability (conservatism) of basic vocabulary is relatively well understood, but the stability of the structural properties of language (phonology, morphology, syntax) is still unclear. Here we report an extensive Bayesian phylogenetic investigation of the structural stability of numerous features across many language families and we introduce a novel method for analyzing the relationships between the “stability profiles” of language families. We found that there is a strong universal component across language families, suggesting the existence of universal linguistic, cognitive and genetic constraints. Against this background, however, each language family has a distinct stability profile, and these profiles cluster by geographic area and likely deep genealogical relationships. These stability profiles seem to show, for example, the ancient historical relationships between the Siberian and American language families, presumed to be separated by at least 12,000 years, and possible connections between the Eurasian families. We also found preliminary support for the punctuated evolution of structural features of language across families, types of features and geographic areas. Thus, such higher-level properties of language seen as an evolutionary system might allow the investigation of ancient connections between languages and shed light on the peopling of the world. PMID:23028843

Abstract profiles of structural stability point to universal tendencies, family-specific factors, and ancient connections between languages.

PubMed

Dediu, Dan; Levinson, Stephen C

2012-01-01

Language is the best example of a cultural evolutionary system, able to retain a phylogenetic signal over many thousands of years. The temporal stability (conservatism) of basic vocabulary is relatively well understood, but the stability of the structural properties of language (phonology, morphology, syntax) is still unclear. Here we report an extensive Bayesian phylogenetic investigation of the structural stability of numerous features across many language families and we introduce a novel method for analyzing the relationships between the "stability profiles" of language families. We found that there is a strong universal component across language families, suggesting the existence of universal linguistic, cognitive and genetic constraints. Against this background, however, each language family has a distinct stability profile, and these profiles cluster by geographic area and likely deep genealogical relationships. These stability profiles seem to show, for example, the ancient historical relationships between the Siberian and American language families, presumed to be separated by at least 12,000 years, and possible connections between the Eurasian families. We also found preliminary support for the punctuated evolution of structural features of language across families, types of features and geographic areas. Thus, such higher-level properties of language seen as an evolutionary system might allow the investigation of ancient connections between languages and shed light on the peopling of the world.

Mitochondrial Phylogenomics of Modern and Ancient Equids

PubMed Central

Vilstrup, Julia T.; Seguin-Orlando, Andaine; Stiller, Mathias; Ginolhac, Aurelien; Raghavan, Maanasa; Nielsen, Sandra C. A.; Weinstock, Jacobo; Froese, Duane; Vasiliev, Sergei K.; Ovodov, Nikolai D.; Clary, Joel; Helgen, Kristofer M.; Fleischer, Robert C.; Cooper, Alan; Shapiro, Beth; Orlando, Ludovic

2013-01-01

The genus Equus is richly represented in the fossil record, yet our understanding of taxonomic relationships within this genus remains limited. To estimate the phylogenetic relationships among modern horses, zebras, asses and donkeys, we generated the first data set including complete mitochondrial sequences from all seven extant lineages within the genus Equus. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic inference confirms that zebras are monophyletic within the genus, and the Plains and Grevy’s zebras form a well-supported monophyletic group. Using ancient DNA techniques, we further characterize the complete mitochondrial genomes of three extinct equid lineages (the New World stilt-legged horses, NWSLH; the subgenus Sussemionus; and the Quagga, Equus quagga quagga). Comparisons with extant taxa confirm the NWSLH as being part of the caballines, and the Quagga and Plains zebras as being conspecific. However, the evolutionary relationships among the non-caballine lineages, including the now-extinct subgenus Sussemionus, remain unresolved, most likely due to extremely rapid radiation within this group. The closest living outgroups (rhinos and tapirs) were found to be too phylogenetically distant to calibrate reliable molecular clocks. Additional mitochondrial genome sequence data, including radiocarbon dated ancient equids, will be required before revisiting the exact timing of the lineage radiation leading up to modern equids, which for now were found to have possibly shared a common ancestor as far as up to 4 Million years ago (Mya). PMID:23437078

Low tortoise abundances in pine forest plantations in forest-shrubland transition areas

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Caro, Roberto C.; Oedekoven, Cornelia S.; Graciá, Eva; Anadón, José D.; Buckland, Stephen T.; Esteve-Selma, Miguel A.; Martinez, Julia; Giménez, Andrés

2017-01-01

In the transition between Mediterranean forest and the arid subtropical shrublands of the southeastern Iberian Peninsula, humans have transformed habitat since ancient times. Understanding the role of the original mosaic landscapes in wildlife species and the effects of the current changes as pine forest plantations, performed even outside the forest ecological boundaries, are important conservation issues. We studied variation in the density of the endangered spur-thighed tortoise (Testudo graeca) in three areas that include the four most common land types within the species’ range (pine forests, natural shrubs, dryland crop fields, and abandoned crop fields). Tortoise densities were estimated using a two-stage modeling approach with line transect distance sampling. Densities in dryland crop fields, abandoned crop fields and natural shrubs were higher (>6 individuals/ha) than in pine forests (1.25 individuals/ha). We also found large variation in density in the pine forests. Recent pine plantations showed higher densities than mature pine forests where shrub and herbaceous cover was taller and thicker. We hypothesize that mature pine forest might constrain tortoise activity by acting as partial barriers to movements. This issue is relevant for management purposes given that large areas in the tortoise’s range have recently been converted to pine plantations. PMID:28273135

Low tortoise abundances in pine forest plantations in forest-shrubland transition areas.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Caro, Roberto C; Oedekoven, Cornelia S; Graciá, Eva; Anadón, José D; Buckland, Stephen T; Esteve-Selma, Miguel A; Martinez, Julia; Giménez, Andrés

2017-01-01

In the transition between Mediterranean forest and the arid subtropical shrublands of the southeastern Iberian Peninsula, humans have transformed habitat since ancient times. Understanding the role of the original mosaic landscapes in wildlife species and the effects of the current changes as pine forest plantations, performed even outside the forest ecological boundaries, are important conservation issues. We studied variation in the density of the endangered spur-thighed tortoise (Testudo graeca) in three areas that include the four most common land types within the species' range (pine forests, natural shrubs, dryland crop fields, and abandoned crop fields). Tortoise densities were estimated using a two-stage modeling approach with line transect distance sampling. Densities in dryland crop fields, abandoned crop fields and natural shrubs were higher (>6 individuals/ha) than in pine forests (1.25 individuals/ha). We also found large variation in density in the pine forests. Recent pine plantations showed higher densities than mature pine forests where shrub and herbaceous cover was taller and thicker. We hypothesize that mature pine forest might constrain tortoise activity by acting as partial barriers to movements. This issue is relevant for management purposes given that large areas in the tortoise's range have recently been converted to pine plantations.

Competition alters tree growth responses to climate at individual and stand scales

Treesearch

Kevin R. Ford; Ian K. Breckheimer; Jerry F. Franklin; James A. Freund; Steve J. Kroiss; Andrew J. Larson; Elinore J. Theobald; Janneke HilleRisLambers

2017-01-01

Understanding how climate affects tree growth is essential for assessing climate change impacts on forests but can be confounded by effects of competition, which strongly influences tree responses to climate. We characterized the joint influences of tree size, competition, and climate on diameter growth using hierarchical Bayesian methods applied to permanent sample...

Assessing conservation lands for forest birds in an exurban landscape

Treesearch

Paige F.B. Ferguson; Michael J. Conroy; Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman

2017-01-01

Exurban development is the fastest growing type of land use in the United States and is prominent in the southern Appalachian region. A potential consequence of exurban development is the loss and fragmentation of wildlife habitat. We used a Bayesian model that accounts for false positive and false negative detections to make inferences about how the occupancy...

Yellow-Poplar and Oak Seedling Density Responses to Wind-Generated Gaps

Treesearch

Erik C. Berg; David H. Van Lear

2004-01-01

The effects of wind on upland hardwood forest structure and composition have been studied mostly in the context of either small "gap-phase" openings or in retrospective studies of ancient disturbances. Larger (> 0.1 ha) wind-created openings are common across Southern Appalachian landscapes, and can be impor tant in shaping understory colonization, growth...

Survivorship and Growth of Oak Regeneration in Wind-Created Gaps

Treesearch

Erik C. Berg

2004-01-01

The effects of wind on upland hardwood forest structure and composition have been studied mostly in the context of either one to two tree mortality gap-phase openings or in retrospective studies of ancient disturbances. Larger (> 0.1 ha) wind-created openings are common across Southern Appalachian landscapes and can be an important factor in shaping understory...

Clearing the Air: A Global Agenda. Worldwatch Paper 94.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

French, Hilary F.

The environmental impact of air pollution on the earth can be described as grave. Air pollution, particularly acid rain, is devastating forests, crops, and lakes over wide areas of North America and Europe. In many cities, ancient buildings have eroded more in recent decades than they had over the previous thousand years. Indications are that…

Presettlement and modern disturbance regimes in coast redwood forests: Implications for the conservation of old-growth stands

Treesearch

C.G. Lorimer; D.G. Porter; M.A. Madej; J.D. Stuart; S.D. Veirs; S.P. Norman; K.L OHara; W.J. Libby

2009-01-01

Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens), a western North American conifer of ancient lineage, has a paradoxical combination of late-successional characteristics and strong adaptations to disturbance. Despite its shade tolerance and heavy dominance of the canopy on many sites, redwood saplings are uncommon in upland old-growth stands. Information needed...

77 FR 62476 - Special Regulations; Areas of the National Park System, Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-15

... such as Empire, Glen Arbor, and Frankfort are closer. Named after a complex of coastal sand dunes, the Lakeshore features white sand beaches, steep bluffs reaching as high as 450 feet above Lake Michigan, thick maple and beech forests, and clear inland lakes. The Lakeshore's most notable features--the ancient sand...

Cheek tooth morphology and ancient mitochondrial DNA of late Pleistocene horses from the western interior of North America: Implications for the taxonomy of North American Late Pleistocene Equus

PubMed Central

Rodrigues, Antonia T.; Theodor, Jessica M.; Kooyman, Brian P.; Yang, Dongya Y.; Speller, Camilla F.

2017-01-01

Horses were a dominant component of North American Pleistocene land mammal communities and their remains are well represented in the fossil record. Despite the abundant material available for study, there is still considerable disagreement over the number of species of Equus that inhabited the different regions of the continent and on their taxonomic nomenclature. In this study, we investigated cheek tooth morphology and ancient mtDNA of late Pleistocene Equus specimens from the Western Interior of North America, with the objective of clarifying the species that lived in this region prior to the end-Pleistocene extinction. Based on the morphological and molecular data analyzed, a caballine (Equus ferus) and a non-caballine (E. conversidens) species were identified from different localities across most of the Western Interior. A second non-caballine species (E. cedralensis) was recognized from southern localities based exclusively on the morphological analyses of the cheek teeth. Notably the separation into caballine and non-caballine species was observed in the Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of ancient mtDNA as well as in the geometric morphometric analyses of the upper and lower premolars. Teeth morphologically identified as E. conversidens that yielded ancient mtDNA fall within the New World stilt-legged clade recognized in previous studies and this is the name we apply to this group. Geographic variation in morphology in the caballine species is indicated by statistically different occlusal enamel patterns in the specimens from Bluefish Caves, Yukon Territory, relative to the specimens from the other geographic regions. Whether this represents ecomorphological variation and/or a certain degree of geographic and genetic isolation of these Arctic populations requires further study. PMID:28817644

Palaeoproteomic evidence identifies archaic hominins associated with the Châtelperronian at the Grotte du Renne

PubMed Central

Welker, Frido; Hajdinjak, Mateja; Talamo, Sahra; Jaouen, Klervia; Dannemann, Michael; David, Francine; Julien, Michèle; Meyer, Matthias; Barnes, Ian; Brace, Selina; Kamminga, Pepijn; Fischer, Roman; Kessler, Benedikt M.; Stewart, John R.; Pääbo, Svante; Collins, Matthew J.; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2016-01-01

In Western Europe, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition is associated with the disappearance of Neandertals and the spread of anatomically modern humans (AMHs). Current chronological, behavioral, and biological models of this transitional period hinge on the Châtelperronian technocomplex. At the site of the Grotte du Renne, Arcy-sur-Cure, morphological Neandertal specimens are not directly dated but are contextually associated with the Châtelperronian, which contains bone points and beads. The association between Neandertals and this “transitional” assemblage has been controversial because of the lack either of a direct hominin radiocarbon date or of molecular confirmation of the Neandertal affiliation. Here we provide further evidence for a Neandertal–Châtelperronian association at the Grotte du Renne through biomolecular and chronological analysis. We identified 28 additional hominin specimens through zooarchaeology by mass spectrometry (ZooMS) screening of morphologically uninformative bone specimens from Châtelperronian layers at the Grotte du Renne. Next, we obtain an ancient hominin bone proteome through liquid chromatography-MS/MS analysis and error-tolerant amino acid sequence analysis. Analysis of this palaeoproteome allows us to provide phylogenetic and physiological information on these ancient hominin specimens. We distinguish Late Pleistocene clades within the genus Homo based on ancient protein evidence through the identification of an archaic-derived amino acid sequence for the collagen type X, alpha-1 (COL10α1) protein. We support this by obtaining ancient mtDNA sequences, which indicate a Neandertal ancestry for these specimens. Direct accelerator mass spectometry radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modeling confirm that the hominin specimens date to the Châtelperronian at the Grotte du Renne. PMID:27638212

Palaeoproteomic evidence identifies archaic hominins associated with the Châtelperronian at the Grotte du Renne.

PubMed

Welker, Frido; Hajdinjak, Mateja; Talamo, Sahra; Jaouen, Klervia; Dannemann, Michael; David, Francine; Julien, Michèle; Meyer, Matthias; Kelso, Janet; Barnes, Ian; Brace, Selina; Kamminga, Pepijn; Fischer, Roman; Kessler, Benedikt M; Stewart, John R; Pääbo, Svante; Collins, Matthew J; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2016-10-04

In Western Europe, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition is associated with the disappearance of Neandertals and the spread of anatomically modern humans (AMHs). Current chronological, behavioral, and biological models of this transitional period hinge on the Châtelperronian technocomplex. At the site of the Grotte du Renne, Arcy-sur-Cure, morphological Neandertal specimens are not directly dated but are contextually associated with the Châtelperronian, which contains bone points and beads. The association between Neandertals and this "transitional" assemblage has been controversial because of the lack either of a direct hominin radiocarbon date or of molecular confirmation of the Neandertal affiliation. Here we provide further evidence for a Neandertal-Châtelperronian association at the Grotte du Renne through biomolecular and chronological analysis. We identified 28 additional hominin specimens through zooarchaeology by mass spectrometry (ZooMS) screening of morphologically uninformative bone specimens from Châtelperronian layers at the Grotte du Renne. Next, we obtain an ancient hominin bone proteome through liquid chromatography-MS/MS analysis and error-tolerant amino acid sequence analysis. Analysis of this palaeoproteome allows us to provide phylogenetic and physiological information on these ancient hominin specimens. We distinguish Late Pleistocene clades within the genus Homo based on ancient protein evidence through the identification of an archaic-derived amino acid sequence for the collagen type X, alpha-1 (COL10α1) protein. We support this by obtaining ancient mtDNA sequences, which indicate a Neandertal ancestry for these specimens. Direct accelerator mass spectometry radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modeling confirm that the hominin specimens date to the Châtelperronian at the Grotte du Renne.

Cheek tooth morphology and ancient mitochondrial DNA of late Pleistocene horses from the western interior of North America: Implications for the taxonomy of North American Late Pleistocene Equus.

PubMed

Barrón-Ortiz, Christina I; Rodrigues, Antonia T; Theodor, Jessica M; Kooyman, Brian P; Yang, Dongya Y; Speller, Camilla F

2017-01-01

Horses were a dominant component of North American Pleistocene land mammal communities and their remains are well represented in the fossil record. Despite the abundant material available for study, there is still considerable disagreement over the number of species of Equus that inhabited the different regions of the continent and on their taxonomic nomenclature. In this study, we investigated cheek tooth morphology and ancient mtDNA of late Pleistocene Equus specimens from the Western Interior of North America, with the objective of clarifying the species that lived in this region prior to the end-Pleistocene extinction. Based on the morphological and molecular data analyzed, a caballine (Equus ferus) and a non-caballine (E. conversidens) species were identified from different localities across most of the Western Interior. A second non-caballine species (E. cedralensis) was recognized from southern localities based exclusively on the morphological analyses of the cheek teeth. Notably the separation into caballine and non-caballine species was observed in the Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of ancient mtDNA as well as in the geometric morphometric analyses of the upper and lower premolars. Teeth morphologically identified as E. conversidens that yielded ancient mtDNA fall within the New World stilt-legged clade recognized in previous studies and this is the name we apply to this group. Geographic variation in morphology in the caballine species is indicated by statistically different occlusal enamel patterns in the specimens from Bluefish Caves, Yukon Territory, relative to the specimens from the other geographic regions. Whether this represents ecomorphological variation and/or a certain degree of geographic and genetic isolation of these Arctic populations requires further study.

Ancient DNA reveals genetic connections between early Di-Qiang and Han Chinese.

PubMed

Li, Jiawei; Zeng, Wen; Zhang, Ye; Ko, Albert Min-Shan; Li, Chunxiang; Zhu, Hong; Fu, Qiaomei; Zhou, Hui

2017-12-04

Ancient Di-Qiang people once resided in the Ganqing region of China, adjacent to the Central Plain area from where Han Chinese originated. While gene flow between the Di-Qiang and Han Chinese has been proposed, there is no evidence to support this view. Here we analyzed the human remains from an early Di-Qiang site (Mogou site dated ~4000 years old) and compared them to other ancient DNA across China, including an early Han-related site (Hengbei site dated ~3000 years old) to establish the underlying genetic relationship between the Di-Qiang and ancestors of Han Chinese. We found Mogou mtDNA haplogroups were highly diverse, comprising 14 haplogroups: A, B, C, D (D*, D4, D5), F, G, M7, M8, M10, M13, M25, N*, N9a, and Z. In contrast, Mogou males were all Y-DNA haplogroup O3a2/P201; specifically one male was further assigned to O3a2c1a/M117 using targeted unique regions on the non-recombining region of the Y-chromosome. We compared Mogou to 7 other ancient and 38 modern Chinese groups, in a total of 1793 individuals, and found that Mogou shared close genetic distances with Taojiazhai (a more recent Di-Qiang population), Hengbei, and Northern Han. We modeled their interactions using Approximate Bayesian Computation, and support was given to a potential admixture of ~13-18% between the Mogou and Northern Han around 3300-3800 years ago. Mogou harbors the earliest genetically identifiable Di-Qiang, ancestral to the Taojiazhai, and up to ~33% paternal and ~70% of its maternal haplogroups could be found in present-day Northern Han Chinese.

Ancient DNA from Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) of South-Western China Reveals Genetic Diversity Loss during the Holocene

PubMed Central

Barlow, Axel; Cooper, Alan; Hou, Xin-Dong; Ji, Xue-Ping; Zhong, Bo-Jian; Liu, Hong; Flynn, Lawrence J.; Yuan, Jun-Xia; Wang, Li-Rui; Basler, Nikolas; Westbury, Michael V.; Hofreiter, Michael; Lai, Xu-Long

2018-01-01

The giant panda was widely distributed in China and south-eastern Asia during the middle to late Pleistocene, prior to its habitat becoming rapidly reduced in the Holocene. While conservation reserves have been established and population numbers of the giant panda have recently increased, the interpretation of its genetic diversity remains controversial. Previous analyses, surprisingly, have indicated relatively high levels of genetic diversity raising issues concerning the efficiency and usefulness of reintroducing individuals from captive populations. However, due to a lack of DNA data from fossil specimens, it is unknown whether genetic diversity was even higher prior to the most recent population decline. We amplified complete cytb and 12s rRNA, partial 16s rRNA and ND1, and control region sequences from the mitochondrial genomes of two Holocene panda specimens. We estimated genetic diversity and population demography by analyzing the ancient mitochondrial DNA sequences alongside those from modern giant pandas, as well as from other members of the bear family (Ursidae). Phylogenetic analyses show that one of the ancient haplotypes is sister to all sampled modern pandas and the second ancient individual is nested among the modern haplotypes, suggesting that genetic diversity may indeed have been higher earlier during the Holocene. Bayesian skyline plot analysis supports this view and indicates a slight decline in female effective population size starting around 6000 years B.P., followed by a recovery around 2000 years ago. Therefore, while the genetic diversity of the giant panda has been affected by recent habitat contraction, it still harbors substantial genetic diversity. Moreover, while its still low population numbers require continued conservation efforts, there seem to be no immediate threats from the perspective of genetic evolutionary potential. PMID:29642393

Ancient DNA from Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) of South-Western China Reveals Genetic Diversity Loss during the Holocene.

PubMed

Sheng, Gui-Lian; Barlow, Axel; Cooper, Alan; Hou, Xin-Dong; Ji, Xue-Ping; Jablonski, Nina G; Zhong, Bo-Jian; Liu, Hong; Flynn, Lawrence J; Yuan, Jun-Xia; Wang, Li-Rui; Basler, Nikolas; Westbury, Michael V; Hofreiter, Michael; Lai, Xu-Long

2018-04-06

The giant panda was widely distributed in China and south-eastern Asia during the middle to late Pleistocene, prior to its habitat becoming rapidly reduced in the Holocene. While conservation reserves have been established and population numbers of the giant panda have recently increased, the interpretation of its genetic diversity remains controversial. Previous analyses, surprisingly, have indicated relatively high levels of genetic diversity raising issues concerning the efficiency and usefulness of reintroducing individuals from captive populations. However, due to a lack of DNA data from fossil specimens, it is unknown whether genetic diversity was even higher prior to the most recent population decline. We amplified complete cyt b and 12s rRNA, partial 16s rRNA and ND1 , and control region sequences from the mitochondrial genomes of two Holocene panda specimens. We estimated genetic diversity and population demography by analyzing the ancient mitochondrial DNA sequences alongside those from modern giant pandas, as well as from other members of the bear family (Ursidae). Phylogenetic analyses show that one of the ancient haplotypes is sister to all sampled modern pandas and the second ancient individual is nested among the modern haplotypes, suggesting that genetic diversity may indeed have been higher earlier during the Holocene. Bayesian skyline plot analysis supports this view and indicates a slight decline in female effective population size starting around 6000 years B.P., followed by a recovery around 2000 years ago. Therefore, while the genetic diversity of the giant panda has been affected by recent habitat contraction, it still harbors substantial genetic diversity. Moreover, while its still low population numbers require continued conservation efforts, there seem to be no immediate threats from the perspective of genetic evolutionary potential.

Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fer, I.; Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.; Richardson, A. D.

2016-12-01

Our ability to forecast ecosystems is limited by how well we parameterize ecosystem models. Direct measurements for all model parameters are not always possible and inverse estimation of these parameters through Bayesian methods is computationally costly. A solution to computational challenges of Bayesian calibration is to approximate the posterior probability surface using a Gaussian Process that emulates the complex process-based model. Here we report the integration of this method within an ecoinformatics toolbox, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application with two ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2.1. SIPNET is a simple model, allowing application of MCMC methods both to the model itself and to its emulator. We used both approaches to assimilate flux (CO2 and latent heat), soil respiration, and soil carbon data from Bartlett Experimental Forest. This comparison showed that emulator is reliable in terms of convergence to the posterior distribution. A 10000-iteration MCMC analysis with SIPNET itself required more than two orders of magnitude greater computation time than an MCMC run of same length with its emulator. This difference would be greater for a more computationally demanding model. Validation of the emulator-calibrated SIPNET against both the assimilated data and out-of-sample data showed improved fit and reduced uncertainty around model predictions. We next applied the validated emulator method to the ED2, whose complexity precludes standard Bayesian data assimilation. We used the ED2 emulator to assimilate demographic data from a network of inventory plots. For validation of the calibrated ED2, we compared the model to results from Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM), a novel synthesis of successional patterns in Forest Inventory and Analysis data. Our results revealed that while the pre-assimilation ED2 formulation cannot capture the emergent demographic patterns from ESM analysis, constrained model parameters controlling demographic processes increased their agreement considerably.

Updating beliefs and combining evidence in adaptive forest management under climate change: a case study of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) in the Black Forest, Germany.

PubMed

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Bugmann, Harald; Elkin, Che; Hanewinkel, Marc; Meilby, Henrik; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

2013-06-15

We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) forest in the Black Forest, Germany. We simulated forest development under a range of climate change scenarios and forest management alternatives. Our analysis used Bayesian updating and Dempster's rule of combination to simulate how observations of climate and forest variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation is superior for updating beliefs and supporting decision-making. However, with little conflict among information sources, the strongest evidence would be offered by a combination of at least two informative variables, e.g., temperature and precipitation. The success of adaptive forest management depends on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Altitudinal gradients, biogeographic history and microhabitat adaptation affect fine-scale spatial genetic structure in African and Neotropical populations of an ancient tropical tree species.

PubMed

Torroba-Balmori, Paloma; Budde, Katharina B; Heer, Katrin; González-Martínez, Santiago C; Olsson, Sanna; Scotti-Saintagne, Caroline; Casalis, Maxime; Sonké, Bonaventure; Dick, Christopher W; Heuertz, Myriam

2017-01-01

The analysis of fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) within populations can provide insights into eco-evolutionary processes. Restricted dispersal and locally occurring genetic drift are the primary causes for FSGS at equilibrium, as described in the isolation by distance (IBD) model. Beyond IBD expectations, spatial, environmental or historical factors can affect FSGS. We examined FSGS in seven African and Neotropical populations of the late-successional rain forest tree Symphonia globulifera L. f. (Clusiaceae) to discriminate the influence of drift-dispersal vs. landscape/ecological features and historical processes on FSGS. We used spatial principal component analysis and Bayesian clustering to assess spatial genetic heterogeneity at SSRs and examined its association with plastid DNA and habitat features. African populations (from Cameroon and São Tomé) displayed a stronger FSGS than Neotropical populations at both marker types (mean Sp = 0.025 vs. Sp = 0.008 at SSRs) and had a stronger spatial genetic heterogeneity. All three African populations occurred in pronounced altitudinal gradients, possibly restricting animal-mediated seed dispersal. Cyto-nuclear disequilibria in Cameroonian populations also suggested a legacy of biogeographic history to explain these genetic patterns. Conversely, Neotropical populations exhibited a weaker FSGS, which may reflect more efficient wide-ranging seed dispersal by Neotropical bats and other dispersers. The population from French Guiana displayed an association of plastid haplotypes with two morphotypes characterized by differential habitat preferences. Our results highlight the importance of the microenvironment for eco-evolutionary processes within persistent tropical tree populations.

Altitudinal gradients, biogeographic history and microhabitat adaptation affect fine-scale spatial genetic structure in African and Neotropical populations of an ancient tropical tree species

PubMed Central

Torroba-Balmori, Paloma; Budde, Katharina B.; Heer, Katrin; González-Martínez, Santiago C.; Olsson, Sanna; Scotti-Saintagne, Caroline; Sonké, Bonaventure; Dick, Christopher W.

2017-01-01

The analysis of fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) within populations can provide insights into eco-evolutionary processes. Restricted dispersal and locally occurring genetic drift are the primary causes for FSGS at equilibrium, as described in the isolation by distance (IBD) model. Beyond IBD expectations, spatial, environmental or historical factors can affect FSGS. We examined FSGS in seven African and Neotropical populations of the late-successional rain forest tree Symphonia globulifera L. f. (Clusiaceae) to discriminate the influence of drift-dispersal vs. landscape/ecological features and historical processes on FSGS. We used spatial principal component analysis and Bayesian clustering to assess spatial genetic heterogeneity at SSRs and examined its association with plastid DNA and habitat features. African populations (from Cameroon and São Tomé) displayed a stronger FSGS than Neotropical populations at both marker types (mean Sp = 0.025 vs. Sp = 0.008 at SSRs) and had a stronger spatial genetic heterogeneity. All three African populations occurred in pronounced altitudinal gradients, possibly restricting animal-mediated seed dispersal. Cyto-nuclear disequilibria in Cameroonian populations also suggested a legacy of biogeographic history to explain these genetic patterns. Conversely, Neotropical populations exhibited a weaker FSGS, which may reflect more efficient wide-ranging seed dispersal by Neotropical bats and other dispersers. The population from French Guiana displayed an association of plastid haplotypes with two morphotypes characterized by differential habitat preferences. Our results highlight the importance of the microenvironment for eco-evolutionary processes within persistent tropical tree populations. PMID:28771629

Mapping pre-European settlement vegetation at fine resolutions using a hierarchical Bayesian model and GIS

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Daniel C. Dey; Xiuli Fan; Mevin B. Hooten; John M. Kabrick; Christopher K. Wikle; Zhaofei. Fan

2007-01-01

In the Midwestern United States, the GeneralLandOffice (GLO) survey records provide the only reasonably accurate data source of forest composition and tree species distribution at the time of pre-European settlement (circa late 1800 to early 1850). However, GLO data have two fundamental limitations: coarse spatial resolutions (the square mile section and half mile...

Crossing the Digital Divide: College of Menominee Nation Uses Technology to Restore Language

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benton, Sherrole

2012-01-01

In the wild river region of northeastern Wisconsin, the Menominee people conserved a portion of their ancient homelands now known as the Menominee Indian Reservation. The Menominee are nationally known for their majestic forests. The Wolf River flows southward for more than 200 miles from its headwaters in Pine Lake to Lake Poygan near the city of…

The evolutionary history of Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx (Myrtaceae) corroborates historically stable areas in the southern Atlantic forests.

PubMed

de Oliveira Bünger, Mariana; Fernanda Mazine, Fiorella; Forest, Félix; Leandro Bueno, Marcelo; Renato Stehmann, João; Lucas, Eve J

2016-12-01

Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx Nied. includes 14 species endemic to the Neotropics, mostly distributed in the Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. Here the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group is presented, and this phylogeny is used as the basis to evaluate the recent infrageneric classification in Eugenia sensu lato (s.l.) to test the history of the evolution of traits in the group and test hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. A total of 42 taxa were sampled, of which 14 were Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx for one nuclear (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, rpl16, trnL-rpl32 and trnQ-rps16). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian analysis and maximum likelihood. Additionally, ancestral area analysis and modelling methods were used to estimate species dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable (refuges) and unstable areas. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx is paraphyletic and the two clades recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Cerrado and south-eastern species and a difference in the composition of species from north-eastern and south-eastern Atlantic forest. Refugia and stable areas identified within unstable areas suggest that these areas were important to maintain diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important historical questions for Eugenia s.l. within an evolutionary context, supporting the need for better taxonomic study of one of the largest genera in the Neotropics. Furthermore, valuable insight is offered into diversification and biome shifts of plant species in the highly environmentally impacted Atlantic forest of South America. Evidence is presented that climate stability in the south-eastern Atlantic forest during the Quaternary contributed to the highest levels of plant diversity in this region that acted as a refugium. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Forest refugia in Western and Central Africa as 'museums' of Mesozoic biodiversity.

PubMed

Murienne, Jérôme; Benavides, Ligia R; Prendini, Lorenzo; Hormiga, Gustavo; Giribet, Gonzalo

2013-02-23

The refugial speciation model, or 'species pump', is widely accepted in the context of tropical biogeography and has been advocated as an explanation for present species distributions in tropical Western and Central Africa. In order to test this hypothesis, a phylogeny of the cryptic arachnid order Ricinulei, based on four nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers, was inferred. This ancient clade of litter-dwelling arthropods, endemic to the primary forests of Western and Central Africa and the Neotropics, might provide insights into the mode and tempo of evolution in Africa. Twenty-six African ricinuleid specimens were sampled from eight countries spanning the distribution of Ricinulei on the continent, and analysed together with Neotropical samples plus other arachnid outgroups. The phylogenetic and molecular dating results suggest that Ricinulei diversified in association with the fragmentation of Gondwana. The early diversification of Ricinoides in Western and Central Africa around 88 (±33) Ma fits old palaeogeographical events better than recent climatic fluctuations. Unlike most recent molecular studies, these results agree with fossil evidence, suggesting that refugia may have acted as 'museums' conserving ancient diversity rather than as engines generating diversity during successive episodes of climatic fluctuation in Africa.

Effects of stand age on the demography of a temperate forest herb in post-agricultural forests.

PubMed

Jacquemyn, Hans; Brys, Rein

2008-12-01

Changes in land use have been shown to have profound effects on forest plant community structure and diversity. Dispersal limitation has been invoked as a major factor hampering colonization of forest plant species, while seed-sowing experiments and performance observations have provided some evidence for recruitment limitation determining forest plant distribution in post-agricultural forests. However, most of these studies were relatively short-term, and very few studies have investigated long-term growth rates of populations occurring in recent and ancient forests. In this study, matrix models using demographic data collected for four consecutive years were used to study the effect of forest age on population dynamics of the temperate forest herb Primula elatior. A life table response experiment (LTRE) and elasticity analysis were used to analyze the effect of forest age on population growth rate (lambda) and to decompose the effect of forest age on lambda into contributions from each matrix element. Population growth increased logarithmically with increasing forest age. Bootstrap analyses showed that populations located in very recent forests (< 50-years-old) had growth rates that were significantly < 1, whereas populations located in forests > 150-years-old had growth rates that were significantly > 1. Summed elasticities for individual growth significantly decreased with increasing forest age, whereas summed elasticities for survival and fertility significantly increased with increasing forest age. The LTRE analysis showed that the increase in lambda with increasing forest age was mainly due to increased seedling and juvenile growth and increased juvenile and adult survival. Our results indicate that past agricultural land use has long-lasting effects on the demography of forest herbs and may provide an additional mechanistic explanation for the poor colonization capacity of many forest herbs in post-agricultural forests.

Development of Secondary Woodland in Oak Wood Pastures Reduces the Richness of Rare Epiphytic Lichens

PubMed Central

Paltto, Heidi; Nordberg, Anna; Nordén, Björn; Snäll, Tord

2011-01-01

Wooded pastures with ancient trees were formerly abundant throughout Europe, but during the last century, grazing has largely been abandoned often resulting in dense forests. Ancient trees constitute habitat for many declining and threatened species, but the effects of secondary woodland on the biodiversity associated with these trees are largely unknown. We tested for difference in species richness, occurrence, and abundance of a set of nationally and regionally red-listed epiphytic lichens between ancient oaks located in secondary woodland and ancient oaks located in open conditions. We refined the test of the effect of secondary woodland by also including other explanatory variables. Species occurrence and abundance were modelled jointly using overdispersed zero-inflated Poisson models. The richness of the red-listed lichens on ancient oaks in secondary woodland was half of that compared with oaks growing in open conditions. The species-level analyses revealed that this was mainly the result of lower occupancy of two of the study species. The tree-level abundance of one species was also lower in secondary woodland. Potential explanations for this pattern are that the study lichens are adapted to desiccating conditions enhancing their population persistence by low competition or that open, windy conditions enhance their colonisation rate. This means that the development of secondary woodland is a threat to red-listed epiphytic lichens. We therefore suggest that woody vegetation is cleared and grazing resumed in abandoned oak pastures. Importantly, this will also benefit the vitality of the oaks. PMID:21961041

Sorting through the chaff, nDNA gene trees for phylogenetic inference and hybrid identification of annual sunflowers (Helianthus sect. Helianthus).

PubMed

Moody, Michael L; Rieseberg, Loren H

2012-07-01

The annual sunflowers (Helianthus sect. Helianthus) present a formidable challenge for phylogenetic inference because of ancient hybrid speciation, recent introgression, and suspected issues with deep coalescence. Here we analyze sequence data from 11 nuclear DNA (nDNA) genes for multiple genotypes of species within the section to (1) reconstruct the phylogeny of this group, (2) explore the utility of nDNA gene trees for detecting hybrid speciation and introgression; and (3) test an empirical method of hybrid identification based on the phylogenetic congruence of nDNA gene trees from tightly linked genes. We uncovered considerable topological heterogeneity among gene trees with or without three previously identified hybrid species included in the analyses, as well as a general lack of reciprocal monophyly of species. Nonetheless, partitioned Bayesian analyses provided strong support for the reciprocal monophyly of all species except H. annuus (0.89 PP), the most widespread and abundant annual sunflower. Previous hypotheses of relationships among taxa were generally strongly supported (1.0 PP), except among taxa typically associated with H. annuus, apparently due to the paraphyly of the latter in all gene trees. While the individual nDNA gene trees provided a useful means for detecting recent hybridization, identification of ancient hybridization was problematic for all ancient hybrid species, even when linkage was considered. We discuss biological factors that affect the efficacy of phylogenetic methods for hybrid identification.

A comparison of machine learning and Bayesian modelling for molecular serotyping.

PubMed

Newton, Richard; Wernisch, Lorenz

2017-08-11

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a human pathogen that is a major cause of infant mortality. Identifying the pneumococcal serotype is an important step in monitoring the impact of vaccines used to protect against disease. Genomic microarrays provide an effective method for molecular serotyping. Previously we developed an empirical Bayesian model for the classification of serotypes from a molecular serotyping array. With only few samples available, a model driven approach was the only option. In the meanwhile, several thousand samples have been made available to us, providing an opportunity to investigate serotype classification by machine learning methods, which could complement the Bayesian model. We compare the performance of the original Bayesian model with two machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting Machines and Random Forests. We present our results as an example of a generic strategy whereby a preliminary probabilistic model is complemented or replaced by a machine learning classifier once enough data are available. Despite the availability of thousands of serotyping arrays, a problem encountered when applying machine learning methods is the lack of training data containing mixtures of serotypes; due to the large number of possible combinations. Most of the available training data comprises samples with only a single serotype. To overcome the lack of training data we implemented an iterative analysis, creating artificial training data of serotype mixtures by combining raw data from single serotype arrays. With the enhanced training set the machine learning algorithms out perform the original Bayesian model. However, for serotypes currently lacking sufficient training data the best performing implementation was a combination of the results of the Bayesian Model and the Gradient Boosting Machine. As well as being an effective method for classifying biological data, machine learning can also be used as an efficient method for revealing subtle biological insights, which we illustrate with an example.

Remnants of an ancient forest provide ecological context for Early Miocene fossil apes.

PubMed

Michel, Lauren A; Peppe, Daniel J; Lutz, James A; Driese, Steven G; Dunsworth, Holly M; Harcourt-Smith, William E H; Horner, William H; Lehmann, Thomas; Nightingale, Sheila; McNulty, Kieran P

2014-01-01

The lineage of apes and humans (Hominoidea) evolved and radiated across Afro-Arabia in the early Neogene during a time of global climatic changes and ongoing tectonic processes that formed the East African Rift. These changes probably created highly variable environments and introduced selective pressures influencing the diversification of early apes. However, interpreting the connection between environmental dynamics and adaptive evolution is hampered by difficulties in locating taxa within specific ecological contexts: time-averaged or reworked deposits may not faithfully represent individual palaeohabitats. Here we present multiproxy evidence from Early Miocene deposits on Rusinga Island, Kenya, which directly ties the early ape Proconsul to a widespread, dense, multistoried, closed-canopy tropical seasonal forest set in a warm and relatively wet, local climate. These results underscore the importance of forested environments in the evolution of early apes.

State of the art on forest and shallow landslide interactions illustrated by two studies in the French Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, F.; Dorren, L.; Lopez, J.; Allegra, C.

2009-04-01

The importance of mountain forests in the protection from natural hazards such as landslides was perceived already in ancient cultures. Allusions of these interactions can be found in ancient Greek, Hebrew, Roman and Chinese literature. In modern times, quantitative studies on the role of vegetation on slope stability started flourishing during the 1960's, with particular contributions from the USA, USSR and Japan, followed by Brazil, New Zealand, Canada, Sweden and Taiwan in the 1970's and 1980's. Forests influence slope stability though mechanical and hydrological effects. Empirical and scientific knowledge agree on the fact that the main effects of forests stands are considered to be: • Mechanical stabilisation due to the presence of roots • Soil moisture depletion as a result of transpiration and water interception by the canopy • Surcharge from the weight of trees The first two factors are beneficial to slope stability whilst the latter may be beneficial or harmful depending on the slope steepness and the potential failure mode. Roots type and morphology influence the capacity of a tree to stabilise slopes, although the failure surface has to be effectively penetrated by the roots in order to be stabilised. Generally, however, forests are considered beneficial for slope stabilization within the soil depth prospected by the tree's root system. So forest stands, depending on the slope value, the hydrological condition and the soil substrata, could have a positive effect on shallow landslide mitigation. Much of the research in the European Alps, however, focuses on the protection awarded by forests against avalanches and rockfalls, whilst little has been done to quantify their protection against landslides. This is in contrast with other mountain regions in the world (Oregon, Himalaya, Japan, British Columbia), where the relations between forests and landslides has been and continues to be studied throughoutly. In order to develop an efficient shallow landslide prevention and mitigation and due to the lack of scientific knowledge on the interaction between forest stands and landslide activities, there is a real need of research axis specifically devoted to the tree main effects cited before. The main objective of these thematically research axis should be an efficient integration of the effect of the forest vegetation in the modelling of shallow landslide dynamic. This presentation deals with the state of the art on forest and landslide interaction illustrated by two studies conducted in the French Alps. The first one attempts to reduce a gap in the scientific knowledge by quantifying the hazard of landslide occurrence considering vegetation effects, in the Combeloup forest on the French Alps, using a physically based spatial modelling approach. The second one present the added value of dendrogeomorphological analyse to evaluate the past activities of landslide terrain in relationship with the evolution of the forest cover.

Pyrodiversity promotes avian diversity over the decade following forest fire

Treesearch

Morgan W. Tingley; Viviana Ruiz-Gutiérrez; Robert L. Wilkerson; Christine A. Howell; Rodney B. Siegel

2016-01-01

An emerging hypothesis in fire ecology is that pyrodiversity increases species diversity.We test whether pyrodiversity—defined as the standard deviation of fire severity—increases avian biodiversity at two spatial scales, and whether and how this relationship may change in the decade following fire. We use a dynamic Bayesian community model applied to a multi-year...

Non-Metric Similarity Measures

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

Sunil Aryal and Kai Ming Ting. (2015) A generic ensemble approach to estimate multi-dimensional likelihood in Bayesian classifier learning...Computational Intelligence. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/coin.12063/abstract 5.2 List of peer-reviewed conference publications [3] Sunil Aryal...International Conference on Data Mining. 707-711. [4] Sunil Aryal, Kai Ming Ting, Jonathan R. Wells and Takashi Washio. (2014) Improv- ing iForest with

Effects of Climate Change on Cultural Resources in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 12

Treesearch

Carl M. Davis

2018-01-01

People have inhabited the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States since the close of the last Pleistocene glacial period, some 14,000 years B.P. (Fagan 1990; Meltzer 2009). Evidence of this ancient and more recent human occupation is found throughout the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USFS) Northern Region and the Greater Yellowstone Area,...

Perspectives on fire management in Mediterranean ecosystems of southern California

Treesearch

Philip J. Riggan; Scott E. Franklin; James A. Brass; Fred E. Brooks

1994-01-01

San Dimas Canyon seems a wild place beyond the reach of civilization. It is home to black bears, gray foxes, Anna's hummingbirds, scrub jays, and in early summer, a multitude of biting insects. Along the steep, northfacing hillsides, the chaparral has the appearance of an ancient forest. From within the canyon it is difficult to remember that one is less than 7 km...

The Maya Tropical Forest: Cascading Human impacts from Hillslopes to Floodplains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, Timothy; Luzzadder-Beach, Sheryl; Doyle, Colin; Krause, Samantha; Brokaw, Nicholas; Yaeger, Jason

2016-04-01

We review the long-term human impact on fluvial systems in the Maya tropical forest region. Although most of this karstic region is drained by groundwater, the southern and coastal margins have several river systems that drain volcanic and metamorphic as well as sedimentary terrains. Some positive environmental impacts of Maya Civilization were the long-term impacts of both landesque capital, like wetland field systems, and other land uses that have enriched many soils. Some negative impacts included stripped soils and eutrophic rivers, both playing out again today with recent deforestation and intensive agriculture. We review trends in the region's fluvial systems, present new evidence on beneficial and detrimental impacts of Maya civilization, and present a new study using LiDAR mapping of fluvial geomorphology of the Belize River. Our new field research comes from the transboundary Rio Bravo watershed of Belize and Guatemala near the border with Mexico. This watershed today is mainly a well preserved tropical forest but from 3,000 to 1000 years ago was partly deforested by Maya cities, farms, roads, fires, and fields. We present studies of soils and sediment movement along slopes, floodplains, and water quality impacts of high dissolved loads of sulfate and calcium. We use AMS dates and soil stratigraphy to date slope and floodplain flux, and we use multiple proxies like pollen and carbon isotopes to reconstruct ancient land use. Aggradation in the floodplain and colluvial deposits began by at least 3,000 years ago and continued until 1100 years ago in several study sites. Some Classic period sites with peak human population and land use intensity experienced less soil erosion, perhaps due to soil conservation, post urban construction, and source reduction. Additional evidence suggests that ancient terraced sites and colluvial slopes that gained upslope sediment and soil nutrients from ancient Maya erosion had greater biodiversity. Lastly, we map fluvial geomorphology with LiDAR in the Belize River Valley, connect the LiDAR with aggradation and erosion evidence, and develop a model to field test the timing of erosion and aggradation in summer 2016.

Joint Bayesian Estimation of Quasar Continua and the Lyα Forest Flux Probability Distribution Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilers, Anna-Christina; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Lee, Khee-Gan

2017-08-01

We present a new Bayesian algorithm making use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling that allows us to simultaneously estimate the unknown continuum level of each quasar in an ensemble of high-resolution spectra, as well as their common probability distribution function (PDF) for the transmitted Lyα forest flux. This fully automated PDF regulated continuum fitting method models the unknown quasar continuum with a linear principal component analysis (PCA) basis, with the PCA coefficients treated as nuisance parameters. The method allows one to estimate parameters governing the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM), such as the slope of the temperature-density relation γ -1, while marginalizing out continuum uncertainties in a fully Bayesian way. Using realistic mock quasar spectra created from a simplified semi-numerical model of the IGM, we show that this method recovers the underlying quasar continua to a precision of ≃ 7 % and ≃ 10 % at z = 3 and z = 5, respectively. Given the number of principal component spectra, this is comparable to the underlying accuracy of the PCA model itself. Most importantly, we show that we can achieve a nearly unbiased estimate of the slope γ -1 of the IGM temperature-density relation with a precision of +/- 8.6 % at z = 3 and +/- 6.1 % at z = 5, for an ensemble of ten mock high-resolution quasar spectra. Applying this method to real quasar spectra and comparing to a more realistic IGM model from hydrodynamical simulations would enable precise measurements of the thermal and cosmological parameters governing the IGM, albeit with somewhat larger uncertainties, given the increased flexibility of the model.

Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raj, Rahul; van der Tol, Christiaan; Hamm, Nicholas Alexander Samuel; Stein, Alfred

2018-01-01

Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP) data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT), ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC), ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf), canopy water interception coefficient (Wint), fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR), and effective soil rooting depth (SD) characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.

Estimation and Application of Ecological Memory Functions in Time and Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Dawson, A.

2017-12-01

A common goal in quantitative ecology is the estimation or prediction of ecological processes as a function of explanatory variables (or covariates). Frequently, the ecological process of interest and associated covariates vary in time, space, or both. Theory indicates many ecological processes exhibit memory to local, past conditions. Despite such theoretical understanding, few methods exist to integrate observations from the recent past or within a local neighborhood as drivers of these processes. We build upon recent methodological advances in ecology and spatial statistics to develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework to estimate so-called ecological memory functions; that is, weight-generating functions that specify the relative importance of local, past covariate observations to ecological processes. Memory functions are estimated using a set of basis functions in time and/or space, allowing for flexible ecological memory based on a reduced set of parameters. Ecological memory functions are entirely data driven under the Bayesian hierarchical framework—no a priori assumptions are made regarding functional forms. Memory function uncertainty follows directly from posterior distributions for model parameters allowing for tractable propagation of error to predictions of ecological processes. We apply the model framework to simulated spatio-temporal datasets generated using memory functions of varying complexity. The framework is also applied to estimate the ecological memory of annual boreal forest growth to local, past water availability. Consistent with ecological understanding of boreal forest growth dynamics, memory to past water availability peaks in the year previous to growth and slowly decays to zero in five to eight years. The Bayesian hierarchical framework has applicability to a broad range of ecosystems and processes allowing for increased understanding of ecosystem responses to local and past conditions and improved prediction of ecological processes.

Fuzzy CMAC With incremental Bayesian Ying-Yang learning and dynamic rule construction.

PubMed

Nguyen, M N

2010-04-01

Inspired by the philosophy of ancient Chinese Taoism, Xu's Bayesian ying-yang (BYY) learning technique performs clustering by harmonizing the training data (yang) with the solution (ying). In our previous work, the BYY learning technique was applied to a fuzzy cerebellar model articulation controller (FCMAC) to find the optimal fuzzy sets; however, this is not suitable for time series data analysis. To address this problem, we propose an incremental BYY learning technique in this paper, with the idea of sliding window and rule structure dynamic algorithms. Three contributions are made as a result of this research. First, an online expectation-maximization algorithm incorporated with the sliding window is proposed for the fuzzification phase. Second, the memory requirement is greatly reduced since the entire data set no longer needs to be obtained during the prediction process. Third, the rule structure dynamic algorithm with dynamically initializing, recruiting, and pruning rules relieves the "curse of dimensionality" problem that is inherent in the FCMAC. Because of these features, the experimental results of the benchmark data sets of currency exchange rates and Mackey-Glass show that the proposed model is more suitable for real-time streaming data analysis.

Temporal genetic variation of the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, across western Europe and the British Isles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Ceiridwen J.; Soulsbury, Carl D.; Statham, Mark J.; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Wall, Dave; Dolf, Gaudenz; Iossa, Graziella; Baker, Phillip J.; Harris, Stephen; Sacks, Benjamin N.; Bradley, Daniel G.

2012-12-01

Quaternary climatic fluctuations have had profound effects on the phylogeographic structure of many species. Classically, species were thought to have become isolated in peninsular refugia, but there is limited evidence that large, non-polar species survived outside traditional refugial areas. We examined the phylogeographic structure of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), a species that shows high ecological adaptability in the western Palaearctic region. We compared mitochondrial DNA sequences (cytochrome b and control region) from 399 modern and 31 ancient individuals from across Europe. Our objective was to test whether red foxes colonised the British Isles from mainland Europe in the late Pleistocene, or whether there is evidence that they persisted in the region through the Last Glacial Maximum. We found red foxes to show a high degree of phylogeographic structuring across Europe and, consistent with palaeontological and ancient DNA evidence, confirmed via phylogenetic indicators that red foxes were persistent in areas outside peninsular refugia during the last ice age. Bayesian analyses and tests of neutrality indicated population expansion. We conclude that there is evidence that red foxes from the British Isles derived from central European populations that became isolated after the closure of the landbridge with Europe.

Temporal genetic variation of the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, across western Europe and the British Isles.

PubMed

Edwards, Ceiridwen J; Soulsbury, Carl D; Statham, Mark J; Ho, Simon Y W; Wall, Dave; Dolf, Gaudenz; Iossa, Graziella; Baker, Phillip J; Harris, Stephen; Sacks, Benjamin N; Bradley, Daniel G

2012-12-04

Quaternary climatic fluctuations have had profound effects on the phylogeographic structure of many species. Classically, species were thought to have become isolated in peninsular refugia, but there is limited evidence that large, non-polar species survived outside traditional refugial areas. We examined the phylogeographic structure of the red fox ( Vulpes vulpes ), a species that shows high ecological adaptability in the western Palaearctic region. We compared mitochondrial DNA sequences (cytochrome b and control region) from 399 modern and 31 ancient individuals from across Europe. Our objective was to test whether red foxes colonised the British Isles from mainland Europe in the late Pleistocene, or whether there is evidence that they persisted in the region through the Last Glacial Maximum. We found red foxes to show a high degree of phylogeographic structuring across Europe and, consistent with palaeontological and ancient DNA evidence, confirmed via phylogenetic indicators that red foxes were persistent in areas outside peninsular refugia during the last ice age. Bayesian analyses and tests of neutrality indicated population expansion. We conclude that there is evidence that red foxes from the British Isles derived from central European populations that became isolated after the closure of the landbridge with Europe.

The relative ages of ectomycorrhizal mushrooms and their plant hosts estimated using Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses

PubMed Central

Hibbett, David S; Matheny, P Brandon

2009-01-01

Background Ectomycorrhizae (ECM) are symbioses formed by polyphyletic assemblages of fungi (mostly Agaricomycetes) and plants (mostly Pinaceae and angiosperms in the rosid clade). Efforts to reconstruct the evolution of the ECM habit in Agaricomycetes have yielded vastly different results, ranging from scenarios with many relatively recent origins of the symbiosis and no reversals to the free-living condition; a single ancient origin of ECM and many subsequent transitions to the free-living condition; or multiple gains and losses of the association. To test the plausibility of these scenarios, we performed Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses including fungi, plants, and other eukaryotes, based on the principle that a symbiosis cannot evolve prior to the origin of both partners. As we were primarily interested in the relative ages of the plants and fungi, we did not attempt to calibrate the molecular clock using the very limited fossil record of Agaricomycetes. Results Topologically constrained and unconstrained analyses suggest that the root node of the Agaricomycetes is much older than either the rosids or Pinaceae. The Agaricomycetidae, a large clade containing the Agaricales and Boletales (collectively representing 70% of Agaricomycetes), is also significantly older than the rosids. The relative age of Agaricomycetidae and Pinaceae, however, is sensitive to tree topology, and the inclusion or exclusion of the gnetophyte Welwitschia mirabilis. Conclusion The ancestor of the Agaricomycetes could not have been an ECM species because it existed long before any of its potential hosts. Within more derived clades of Agaricomycetes, there have been at least eight independent origins of ECM associations involving angiosperms, and at least six to eight origins of associations with gymnosperms. The first ECM symbioses may have involved Pinaceae, which are older than rosids, but several major clades of Agaricomycetes, such as the Boletales and Russulales, are young enough to have been plesiomorphically associated with either rosids or Pinaceae, suggesting that some contemporary ECM partnerships could be of very ancient origin. PMID:19284559

Gene trees, species trees, and morphology converge on a similar phylogeny of living gars (Actinopterygii: Holostei: Lepisosteidae), an ancient clade of ray-finned fishes.

PubMed

Wright, Jeremy J; David, Solomon R; Near, Thomas J

2012-06-01

Extant gars represent the remaining members of a formerly diverse assemblage of ancient ray-finned fishes and have been the subject of multiple phylogenetic analyses using morphological data. Here, we present the first hypothesis of phylogenetic relationships among living gar species based on molecular data, through the examination of gene tree heterogeneity and coalescent species tree analyses of a portion of one mitochondrial (COI) and seven nuclear (ENC1, myh6, plagl2, S7 ribosomal protein intron 1, sreb2, tbr1, and zic1) genes. Individual gene trees displayed varying degrees of resolution with regards to species-level relationships, and the gene trees inferred from COI and the S7 intron were the only two that were completely resolved. Coalescent species tree analyses of nuclear genes resulted in a well-resolved and strongly supported phylogenetic tree of living gar species, for which Bayesian posterior node support was further improved by the inclusion of the mitochondrial gene. Species-level relationships among gars inferred from our molecular data set were highly congruent with previously published morphological phylogenies, with the exception of the placement of two species, Lepisosteus osseus and L. platostomus. Re-examination of the character coding used by previous authors provided partial resolution of this topological discordance, resulting in broad concordance in the phylogenies inferred from individual genes, the coalescent species tree analysis, and morphology. The completely resolved phylogeny inferred from the molecular data set with strong Bayesian posterior support at all nodes provided insights into the potential for introgressive hybridization and patterns of allopatric speciation in the evolutionary history of living gars, as well as a solid foundation for future examinations of functional diversification and evolutionary stasis in a "living fossil" lineage. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Historical ecology and the conservation of large, hermaphroditic fishes in Pacific Coast kelp forest ecosystems

PubMed Central

Braje, Todd J.; Rick, Torben C.; Szpak, Paul; Newsome, Seth D.; McCain, Joseph M.; Elliott Smith, Emma A.; Glassow, Michael; Hamilton, Scott L.

2017-01-01

The intensive commercial exploitation of California sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) has become a complex, multimillion-dollar industry. The fishery is of concern because of high harvest levels and potential indirect impacts of sheephead removals on the structure and function of kelp forest ecosystems. California sheephead are protogynous hermaphrodites that, as predators of sea urchins and other invertebrates, are critical components of kelp forest ecosystems in the northeast Pacific. Overfishing can trigger trophic cascades and widespread ecological dysfunction when other urchin predators are also lost from the system. Little is known about the ecology and abundance of sheephead before commercial exploitation. Lack of a historical perspective creates a gap for evaluating fisheries management measures and marine reserves that seek to rebuild sheephead populations to historical baseline conditions. We use population abundance and size structure data from the zooarchaeological record, in concert with isotopic data, to evaluate the long-term health and viability of sheephead fisheries in southern California. Our results indicate that the importance of sheephead to the diet of native Chumash people varied spatially across the Channel Islands, reflecting modern biogeographic patterns. Comparing ancient (~10,000 calibrated years before the present to 1825 CE) and modern samples, we observed variability and significant declines in the relative abundance of sheephead, reductions in size frequency distributions, and shifts in the dietary niche between ancient and modern collections. These results highlight how size-selective fishing can alter the ecological role of key predators and how zooarchaeological data can inform fisheries management by establishing historical baselines that aid future conservation. PMID:28164155

Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

PubMed

Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

2016-08-01

Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

Early Forest Soils and Their Role in Devonian Global Change

PubMed

Retallack

1997-04-25

A paleosol in the Middle Devonian Aztec Siltstone of Victoria Land, Antarctica, is the most ancient known soil of well-drained forest ecosystems. Clay enrichment and chemical weathering of subsurface horizons in this and other Devonian forested paleosols culminate a long-term increase initiated during the Silurian. From Silurian into Devonian time, red clayey calcareous paleosols show a greater volume of roots and a concomitant decline in the density of animal burrows. These trends parallel the decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide determined from isotopic records of pedogenic carbonate in these same paleosols. The drawdown of carbon dioxide began well before the Devonian appearance of coals, large logs, and diverse terrestrial plants and animals, and it did not correlate with temporal variation in volcanic or metamorphic activity. The early Paleozoic greenhouse may have been curbed by the evolution of rhizospheres with an increased ratio of primary to secondary production and by more effective silicate weathering during Silurian time.

Forest pests and home values: The importance of accuracy in damage assessment and geocoding of properties

Treesearch

Klaus Moeltner; Christine E. Blinn; Thomas P. Holmes

2017-01-01

We examine the impact of measurement errors in geocoding of property locations and in the assessment of Mountain Pine Beetle-induced tree damage within the proximity of a given residence on estimated losses in home values. For our sample of homes in the wildland-urban interface of the Colorado front range and using a novel matching estimator with Bayesian regression...

The evaluation of different forest structural indices to predict the stand aboveground biomass of even-aged Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in Kunduz, Northern Turkey.

PubMed

Ercanli, İlker; Kahriman, Aydın

2015-03-01

We assessed the effect of stand structural diversity, including the Shannon, improved Shannon, Simpson, McIntosh, Margelef, and Berger-Parker indices, on stand aboveground biomass (AGB) and developed statistical prediction models for the stand AGB values, including stand structural diversity indices and some stand attributes. The AGB prediction model, including only stand attributes, accounted for 85 % of the total variance in AGB (R (2)) with an Akaike's information criterion (AIC) of 807.2407, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) of 809.5397, Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC) of 818.0426, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 38.529 Mg. After inclusion of the stand structural diversity into the model structure, considerable improvement was observed in statistical accuracy, including 97.5 % of the total variance in AGB, with an AIC of 614.1819, BIC of 617.1242, SBC of 633.0853, and RMSE of 15.8153 Mg. The predictive fitting results indicate that some indices describing the stand structural diversity can be employed as significant independent variables to predict the AGB production of the Scotch pine stand. Further, including the stand diversity indices in the AGB prediction model with the stand attributes provided important predictive contributions in estimating the total variance in AGB.

Ancient barkpeeled trees in the Bitterroot Mountains, Montana: Legacies of native land use and implications for their protection

Treesearch

Torbjorn Josefsson; Elaine Sutherland; Stephen F. Arno; Lars Ostlund

2012-01-01

Culturally modified trees (CMTs) are trees with scars that reflect human utilization of forested ecosystems. Some CMTs can reveal unique knowledge of native cultures and insight to peoples' subsistence and land use in the past, and are mostly to be found in protected areas since they contain very old trees. In this study, we examine attributes and the spatial and...

Phylogeographic patterns of the Aconitum nemorum species group (Ranunculaceae) shaped by geological and climatic events in the Tianshan Mountains and their surroundings

Treesearch

Xiao-Long Jiang; Ming-Li Zhang; Hong-Xiang Zhang; Stewart C. Sanderson

2014-01-01

To investigate the impacts of ancient geological and climatic events on the evolutionary history of the Aconitum nemorum species group, including A. nemorum s. str., A. karakolicum, and A. soongoricum; a total of 18 natural populations with 146 individuals were sampled, mainly from grassy slopes or the coniferous forest understory of the Tianshan Mountain Range and its...

Ancient ecology of 15-million-year-old browsing mammals within C3 plant communities from Panama.

PubMed

MacFadden, Bruce J; Higgins, Pennilyn

2004-06-01

Middle Miocene mammals are known from approximately 15 million-year-old sediments exposed along the Panama Canal of Central America, a region that otherwise has an exceedingly poor terrestrial fossil record. These land mammals, which represent a part of the ancient terrestrial herbivore community, include an oreodont Merycochoerus matthewi, small camel-like protoceratid artiodactyl Paratoceras wardi, two horses Anchitherium clarencei and Archaeohippus sp., and two rhinos Menoceras barbouri and Floridaceras whitei. Bulk and serial carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of the tooth enamel carbonate allow reconstruction of the ancient climate and ecology of these fossil mammals. Ancient Panama had an equable climate with seasonal temperature and rainfall fluctuations less than those seen today. The middle Miocene terrestrial community consisted predominantly, or exclusively, of C3 plants, i.e., there is no evidence for C4 grasses. Statistically different mean carbon isotope values for the mammalian herbivores indicate niche partitioning of the C3 plant food resources. The range of individual carbon isotope analyses, i.e., delta13C from -15.9 to -10.1 per thousand, indicates herbivores feeding on diverse plants from different habitats with extrapolated delta13C values of -29.9 to -24.2 per thousand, possibly ranging from dense forest to more open country woodland. The ecological niches of individual mammalian herbivore species were differentiated either by diet or body size.

Near Real Time Change-Point detection in Optical and Thermal Infrared Time Series Using Bayesian Inference over the Dry Chaco Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barraza Bernadas, V.; Grings, F.; Roitberg, E.; Perna, P.; Karszenbaum, H.

2017-12-01

The Dry Chaco region (DCF) has the highest absolute deforestation rates of all Argentinian forests. The most recent report indicates a current deforestation rate of 200,000 Ha year-1. In order to better monitor this process, DCF was chosen to implement an early warning program for illegal deforestation. Although the area is intensively studied using medium resolution imagery (Landsat), the products obtained have a yearly pace and therefore unsuited for an early warning program. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of an online Bayesian change-point detection algorithm for MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) datasets. The goal was to to monitor the abrupt changes in vegetation dynamics associated with deforestation events. We tested this model by simulating 16-day EVI and 8-day LST time series with varying amounts of seasonality, noise, length of the time series and by adding abrupt changes with different magnitudes. This model was then tested on real satellite time series available through the Google Earth Engine, over a pilot area in DCF, where deforestation was common in the 2004-2016 period. A comparison with yearly benchmark products based on Landsat images is also presented (REDAF dataset). The results shows the advantages of using an automatic model to detect a changepoint in the time series than using only visual inspection techniques. Simulating time series with varying amounts of seasonality and noise, and by adding abrupt changes at different times and magnitudes, revealed that this model is robust against noise, and is not influenced by changes in amplitude of the seasonal component. Furthermore, the results compared favorably with REDAF dataset (near 65% of agreement). These results show the potential to combine LST and EVI to identify deforestation events. This work is being developed within the frame of the national Forest Law for the protection and sustainable development of Native Forest in Argentina in agreement with international legislation (REDD+).

Detection of early warning signals of forest mortality in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Kumar, M.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Massive forest mortality was observed in California during the most recent drought. Owing to complex interactions of physiological mechanisms under stress, prediction of climate-induced forest mortality using dynamic global vegetation models remains fraught with uncertainty. Given that forest ecosystems approaching mortality tend to exhibit reduction in resilience, we evaluate the time-varying resilience from time series of satellite images to detect early warning signals (EWSs) of mortality. Four metrics of EWSs are used: (1) low greenness, (2) high empirical autocorrelation of greenness, (3) high autocorrelation inferred using a Bayesian dynamic linear model considering the influence of seasonality and climate conditions, and (4) low recovery rate inferred from the drift term in the Langevin equation describing stochastic dynamics. Spatial accuracy and lead-time of these EWSs are evaluated by comparing the EWSs against observed mortality from aerial surveys conducted by the US Forest Service. Our results show that most forested areas in California that underwent mortality exhibit a EWS with a lead time of three months to two years ahead of observed mortality. Notably, EWS is also detected in some areas without mortality, suggesting reduced resilience during drought. Furthermore, the influence of the previous drought (2007-2009) may have propagated into the recent drought (2012-2016) through reduced resilience, hence contributing to the massive forest mortality observed recently. Methodologies developed in this study for detection of EWS will improve the near-term predictability of forest mortality, thus providing crucial information for forest and water resource management.

A predictive framework to understand forest responses to global change.

PubMed

McMahon, Sean M; Dietze, Michael C; Hersh, Michelle H; Moran, Emily V; Clark, James S

2009-04-01

Forests are one of Earth's critical biomes. They have been shown to respond strongly to many of the drivers that are predicted to change natural systems over this century, including climate, introduced species, and other anthropogenic influences. Predicting how different tree species might respond to this complex of forces remains a daunting challenge for forest ecologists. Yet shifts in species composition and abundance can radically influence hydrological and atmospheric systems, plant and animal ranges, and human populations, making this challenge an important one to address. Forest ecologists have gathered a great deal of data over the past decades and are now using novel quantitative and computational tools to translate those data into predictions about the fate of forests. Here, after a brief review of the threats to forests over the next century, one of the more promising approaches to making ecological predictions is described: using hierarchical Bayesian methods to model forest demography and simulating future forests from those models. This approach captures complex processes, such as seed dispersal and mortality, and incorporates uncertainty due to unknown mechanisms, data problems, and parameter uncertainty. After describing the approach, an example by simulating drought for a southeastern forest is offered. Finally, there is a discussion of how this approach and others need to be cast within a framework of prediction that strives to answer the important questions posed to environmental scientists, but does so with a respect for the challenges inherent in predicting the future of a complex biological system.

The use of the local flora in Switzerland: a comparison of past and recent medicinal plant knowledge.

PubMed

Dal Cero, Maja; Saller, Reinhard; Weckerle, Caroline S

2014-01-01

This analysis of documented medicinal plants of the Swiss Flora over the last two millennia provides a rich source of knowledge on earlier uses of plants and use patterns of the local flora. We ask which local plant species were used during different time periods of the last 2000 years and how the numbers of species and the use intensity of specific plant families, growth forms and habitats changed over time. Totally 25 herbals from the antiquity, monastic medicine, Renaissance, early modern era and the contemporary time as well as five recent ethnobotanical studies were considered. Use patterns were analysed with the Bayesian approach. A total of 768 species, i.e. 32% of the vascular plants of the Swiss Flora have been documented as medicinal plants. Numbers increase until the monastic period (366 spp.) and the Renaissance (476) and remain relatively stable since then (modern and contemporary era: 477). But, 465 formerly documented species do not occur in the ethnobotanical studies and thus seem not to be used any more. Overall, 104 species are documented through all time periods. Archeophytes, trees and forest plants are generally overrepresented in herbals from all time periods while plants from above the timberline are generally underrepresented. Most widely used are the Lamiaceae and Apiaceae. A constant body of medicinal plant knowledge in Switzerland exists since ancient time. This knowledge was always influenced by knowledge from neighboring countries and no "typical Swiss specialties" seem to exist. Medicinal plants are not randomly chosen from the available flora. Certain species are deliberately introduced others are neglected. This process, which is still ongoing, can be traced back with the help of herbals to the antiquity. © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic structure and hierarchical population divergence history of Acer mono var. mono in South and Northeast China.

PubMed

Liu, Chunping; Tsuda, Yoshiaki; Shen, Hailong; Hu, Lijiang; Saito, Yoko; Ide, Yuji

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the genetic structure and evolutionary history of tree species across their ranges is essential for the development of effective conservation and forest management strategies. Acer mono var. mono, an economically and ecologically important maple species, is extensively distributed in Northeast China (NE), whereas it has a scattered and patchy distribution in South China (SC). In this study, the genetic structure and demographic history of 56 natural populations of A. mono var. mono were evaluated using seven nuclear microsatellite markers. Neighbor-joining tree and STRUCTURE analysis clearly separated populations into NE and SC groups with two admixed-like populations. Allelic richness significantly decreased with increasing latitude within the NE group while both allelic richness and expected heterozygosity showed significant positive correlation with latitude within the SC group. Especially in the NE region, previous studies in Quercus mongolica and Fraxinus mandshurica have also detected reductions in genetic diversity with increases in latitude, suggesting this pattern may be common for tree species in this region, probably due to expansion from single refugium following the last glacial maximum (LGM). Approximate Bayesian Computation-based analysis revealed two major features of hierarchical population divergence in the species' evolutionary history. Recent divergence between the NE group and the admixed-like group corresponded to the LGM period and ancient divergence of SC groups took place during mid-late Pleistocene period. The level of genetic differentiation was moderate (FST  = 0.073; G'ST  = 0.278) among all populations, but significantly higher in the SC group than the NE group, mirroring the species' more scattered distribution in SC. Conservation measures for this species are proposed, taking into account the genetic structure and past demographic history identified in this study.

Genetic Structure and Hierarchical Population Divergence History of Acer mono var. mono in South and Northeast China

PubMed Central

Shen, Hailong; Hu, Lijiang; Saito, Yoko; Ide, Yuji

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the genetic structure and evolutionary history of tree species across their ranges is essential for the development of effective conservation and forest management strategies. Acer mono var. mono, an economically and ecologically important maple species, is extensively distributed in Northeast China (NE), whereas it has a scattered and patchy distribution in South China (SC). In this study, the genetic structure and demographic history of 56 natural populations of A. mono var. mono were evaluated using seven nuclear microsatellite markers. Neighbor-joining tree and STRUCTURE analysis clearly separated populations into NE and SC groups with two admixed-like populations. Allelic richness significantly decreased with increasing latitude within the NE group while both allelic richness and expected heterozygosity showed significant positive correlation with latitude within the SC group. Especially in the NE region, previous studies in Quercus mongolica and Fraxinus mandshurica have also detected reductions in genetic diversity with increases in latitude, suggesting this pattern may be common for tree species in this region, probably due to expansion from single refugium following the last glacial maximum (LGM). Approximate Bayesian Computation-based analysis revealed two major features of hierarchical population divergence in the species’ evolutionary history. Recent divergence between the NE group and the admixed-like group corresponded to the LGM period and ancient divergence of SC groups took place during mid-late Pleistocene period. The level of genetic differentiation was moderate (FST = 0.073; G′ST = 0.278) among all populations, but significantly higher in the SC group than the NE group, mirroring the species’ more scattered distribution in SC. Conservation measures for this species are proposed, taking into account the genetic structure and past demographic history identified in this study. PMID:24498039

Divergence times and colonization of the Canary Islands by Gallotia lizards.

PubMed

Cox, Siobhan C; Carranza, Salvador; Brown, Richard P

2010-08-01

The Canary Islands have become a model region for evolutionary studies. We obtained 1.8 Kbp of mtDNA sequence from all known island forms of the endemic lizard genus Gallotia and from its sister taxon Psammodromus in order to reanalyze phylogenetic relationships within the archipelago, estimate lineage divergence times, and reconstruct the colonization history of this group. Well-supported phylogenies were obtained using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. Previous studies have been unable to establish the branching pattern at the base of the tree. We found evidence that G. stehlini (Gran Canaria) originated from the most basal Gallotia node and G. atlantica from the subsequent node. Divergence times were estimated under a global clock using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods implemented by three different programs: BEAST, MCMCTREE, MULTIDIVTIME. Node constraints were derived from subaerial island appearance data and were incorporated into the analyses as soft or hard maximal bounds. Posterior node ages differed slightly between programs, possibly due to different priors on divergence times. The most eastern Canary Islands first emerged just over 20 mya and their colonization appears to have taken place relatively quickly, around 17-20 mya. The subsequent node is consistent with cladogenesis due to colonization of Gran Canaria from the eastern islands about 11-13 mya. The western islands appear to have been colonized by a dispersal event from Lanzarote/Fuerteventura in the east to either La Gomera or one of the ancient edifices that subsequently formed Tenerife in the west, about 9-10 mya. Within the western islands, the most recent node that is ancestral to both the G. intermedia/G. gomerana/G. simonyi and the G.galloti/G. caesaris clades is dated at about 5-6 mya. Subsequent dispersal events between ancient Tenerife islands and La Gomera are dated at around 3 mya in both clades, although the direction of dispersal cannot be determined. Finally, we show that G. galloti is likely to have colonized La Palma more than 0.5 Ma after emergence of the island 1.77 mya, while G. caesaris from the same clade may have colonized El Hierro very soon after it emerged 1.12 mya. There are tentative indications that the large-bodied endangered G. simonyi colonized El Hierro around the same time or even later than the smaller-bodied G. caesaris. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of Bayesian dating of a phylogeny in helping reconstruct the historical pattern of dispersal across an oceanic archipelago. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determining the distribution loss of brown eared-pheasant (Crossoptilon mantchuricum) using historical data and potential distribution estimates

PubMed Central

Song, Zitan

2016-01-01

We analyzed the synchronous relationship between forest cover and species distribution to explain the contraction in the distribution range of the brown eared-pheasant (Crossoptilon mantchuricum) in China. Historical resources can provide effective records for reconstructing long-term distribution dynamics. The brown eared-pheasant’s historical distribution from 25 to 1947 CE, which included the three provinces of Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei based on this species’ habitat selection criteria, the history of the forests, ancient climate change records, and fossil data. The current species distribution covers Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei provinces, as well as Beijing city, while Shanxi remains the center of the distribution area. MaxEnt model indicated that the suitable conditions of the brown eared-pheasant had retreated to the western regions of Shanxi and that the historical distribution area had reduced synchronously with the disappearance of local forest cover in Shanxi. We built a correlative relationship between the presence/absence of brown eared-pheasants and forest coverage and found that forest coverage in the north, northeast, central, and southeast areas of the Shanxi province were all less than 10% in 1911. Wild brown eared-pheasants are stable in the Luliang Mountains, where forest coverage reached 13.2% in 2000. Consequently, we concluded that the distribution of this species is primarily determined by vegetation conditions and that forest cover was the most significant determining factor. PMID:27781161

Forest Cover Change and Soil Erosion in Toledo's Rio Grande Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chicas, S.; Omine, K.

2015-04-01

Toledo, the southernmost district, is the hub of Belize's Mayan population, descendants of the ancient Mayan civilization. The Toledo District is primarily inhibited by Kekchi and Mopan Mayans whose subsistence needs are met by the Milpa slash-and-burn agricultural system and the extraction of forest resources. The poverty assessment in the country indicates that Toledo is the district with the highest percentage of household an individual indigence of 37.5 % and 49.7 % respectively. Forest cover change in the area can be attributed to rapid population growth among the Maya, together with increase in immigration from neighboring countries, logging, oil exploration and improvement and construction of roads. The forest cover change analysis show that from 2001 to 2011 there was a decrease of Lowland broad-leaved wet forest of 7.53 km sq, Shrubland of 4.66 km sq, and Wetland of 0.08 km sq. Forest cover change has resulted in soil erosion which is causing the deterioration of soils. The land cover types that are contributing the most to total erosion in the Rio Grande watershed are no-forest, lowland broad-leaved wet forest and submontane broad-leaved wet forest. In this study the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was employed in a GIS platform to quantify and assess forest cover change and soil erosion. Soil erosion vulnerability maps in Toledo's Rio Grande watershed were also created. This study provides scientifically sound information in order to understand and respond effectively to the impacts of soil erosion in the study site.

Establishing the science foundation to sustain high-elevation five-needle pine forests threatened by novel interacting stresses in four western National Parks

Treesearch

A. W. Schoettle; J. Connor; J. Mack; P. Pineda Bovin; J. Beck; G. M. Baker; R. A. Sniezko; K. S. Burns

2013-01-01

High-elevation, five-needle white pines are among the most picturesque trees in many national parks as well as other federal, state, and private lands in western North America. These trees often live to a great age; the trees' gnarled trunks give testimony to fierce winds that buffet them on exposed rocky sites. Ancient limber pines (Pinus flexilis) in Rocky...

Establishing the science foundation to sustain high-elevation five-needle pine forests threatened by novel interacting stresses in four western National Parks [Proceedings

Treesearch

A. W. Schoettle; Jeff Connor; John Mack; Phyllis Pineda Bovin; Jen Beck; Gretchen Baker; R. A. Sniezko; K. S. Burns

2014-01-01

High-elevation five-needle white pines are among the most picturesque trees in many national parks, as well as other federal, state, and private lands in western North America. These trees often live to great ages; the trees' gnarled trunks give testimony to fierce winds that buffet them on exposed rocky sites. Ancient limber pines (Pinus flexilis) in Rocky...

Albuquerque, NM, USA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Albuquerque, NM (35.0N, 106.5W) is situated on the edge of the Rio Grande River and flood plain which cuts across the image. The reddish brown surface of the Albuquerque Basin is a fault depression filled with ancient alluvial fan and lake bed sediments. On the slopes of the Manzano Mountains to the east of Albuquerque, juniper and other timber of the Cibola National Forest can be seen as contrasting dark tones of vegetation.

A Bayesian Multilevel Model for Microcystin Prediction in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The frequency of cyanobacteria blooms in North American lakes is increasing. A major concernwith rising cyanobacteria blooms is microcystin, a common cyanobacterial hepatotoxin. Toexplore the conditions that promote high microcystin concentrations, we analyzed the US EPANational Lake Assessment (NLA) dataset collected in the summer of 2007. The NLA datasetis reported for nine eco-regions. We used the results of random forest modeling as a means ofvariable selection from which we developed a Bayesian multilevel model of microcystin concentrations.Model parameters under a multilevel modeling framework are eco-region specific, butthey are also assumed to be exchangeable across eco-regions for broad continental scaling. Theexchangeability assumption ensures that both the common patterns and eco-region specific featureswill be reflected in the model. Furthermore, the method incorporates appropriate estimatesof uncertainty. Our preliminary results show associations between microcystin and turbidity, totalnutrients, and N:P ratios. The NLA 2012 will be used for Bayesian updating. The results willhelp develop management strategies to alleviate microcystin impacts and improve lake quality. This work provides a probabilistic framework for predicting microcystin presences in lakes. It would allow for insights to be made about how changes in nutrient concentrations could potentially change toxin levels.

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

2010-12-01

Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies conservation planning. Journal compilation © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Bias in logistic regression due to imperfect diagnostic test results and practical correction approaches.

PubMed

Valle, Denis; Lima, Joanna M Tucker; Millar, Justin; Amratia, Punam; Haque, Ubydul

2015-11-04

Logistic regression is a statistical model widely used in cross-sectional and cohort studies to identify and quantify the effects of potential disease risk factors. However, the impact of imperfect tests on adjusted odds ratios (and thus on the identification of risk factors) is under-appreciated. The purpose of this article is to draw attention to the problem associated with modelling imperfect diagnostic tests, and propose simple Bayesian models to adequately address this issue. A systematic literature review was conducted to determine the proportion of malaria studies that appropriately accounted for false-negatives/false-positives in a logistic regression setting. Inference from the standard logistic regression was also compared with that from three proposed Bayesian models using simulations and malaria data from the western Brazilian Amazon. A systematic literature review suggests that malaria epidemiologists are largely unaware of the problem of using logistic regression to model imperfect diagnostic test results. Simulation results reveal that statistical inference can be substantially improved when using the proposed Bayesian models versus the standard logistic regression. Finally, analysis of original malaria data with one of the proposed Bayesian models reveals that microscopy sensitivity is strongly influenced by how long people have lived in the study region, and an important risk factor (i.e., participation in forest extractivism) is identified that would have been missed by standard logistic regression. Given the numerous diagnostic methods employed by malaria researchers and the ubiquitous use of logistic regression to model the results of these diagnostic tests, this paper provides critical guidelines to improve data analysis practice in the presence of misclassification error. Easy-to-use code that can be readily adapted to WinBUGS is provided, enabling straightforward implementation of the proposed Bayesian models.

Pleistocene climate changes shaped the population structure of Partamona seridoensis (Apidae, Meliponini), an endemic stingless bee from the Neotropical dry forest

PubMed Central

Ferreira, Kátia Maria; Carvalho, Airton Torres; Martins, Celso Feitosa; Fernandes, Carlo Rivero; Del Lama, Marco Antonio

2017-01-01

Partamona seridoensis is an endemic stingless bee from the Caatinga, a Neotropical dry forest in northeastern Brazil. Like other stingless bees, this species plays an important ecological role as a pollinator. The aim of the present study was to investigate the genetic structure and evolutionary history of P. seridoensis across its current geographic range. Workers from 84 nests from 17 localities were analyzed for COI and Cytb genic regions. The population structure tests (Bayesian phylogenetic inference, AMOVA and haplotype network) consistently characterized two haplogroups (northwestern and eastern), with little gene flow between them, generating a high differentiation between them as well as among the populations within each haplogroup. The Mantel test revealed no isolation by distance. No evidence of a potential geographic barrier in the present that could explain the diversification between the P. seridoensis haplogroups was found. However, Pleistocene climatic changes may explain this differentiation, since the initial time for the P. seridoensis lineages diversification took place during the mid-Pleistocene, specifically the interglacial period, when the biota is presumed to have been more associated with dry conditions and had more restricted, fragmented geographical distribution. This event may have driven diversification by isolating the two haplogroups. Otherwise, the climatic changes in the late Pleistocene must not have drastically affected the population dynamics of P. seridoensis, since the Bayesian Skyline Plot did not reveal any substantial fluctuation in effective population size in either haplogroup. Considering its importance and the fact that it is an endemic bee from a very threatened Neotropical dry forest, the results herein could be useful to the development of conservation strategies for P. seridoensis. PMID:28410408

Pleistocene climate changes shaped the population structure of Partamona seridoensis (Apidae, Meliponini), an endemic stingless bee from the Neotropical dry forest.

PubMed

Miranda, Elder Assis; Ferreira, Kátia Maria; Carvalho, Airton Torres; Martins, Celso Feitosa; Fernandes, Carlo Rivero; Del Lama, Marco Antonio

2017-01-01

Partamona seridoensis is an endemic stingless bee from the Caatinga, a Neotropical dry forest in northeastern Brazil. Like other stingless bees, this species plays an important ecological role as a pollinator. The aim of the present study was to investigate the genetic structure and evolutionary history of P. seridoensis across its current geographic range. Workers from 84 nests from 17 localities were analyzed for COI and Cytb genic regions. The population structure tests (Bayesian phylogenetic inference, AMOVA and haplotype network) consistently characterized two haplogroups (northwestern and eastern), with little gene flow between them, generating a high differentiation between them as well as among the populations within each haplogroup. The Mantel test revealed no isolation by distance. No evidence of a potential geographic barrier in the present that could explain the diversification between the P. seridoensis haplogroups was found. However, Pleistocene climatic changes may explain this differentiation, since the initial time for the P. seridoensis lineages diversification took place during the mid-Pleistocene, specifically the interglacial period, when the biota is presumed to have been more associated with dry conditions and had more restricted, fragmented geographical distribution. This event may have driven diversification by isolating the two haplogroups. Otherwise, the climatic changes in the late Pleistocene must not have drastically affected the population dynamics of P. seridoensis, since the Bayesian Skyline Plot did not reveal any substantial fluctuation in effective population size in either haplogroup. Considering its importance and the fact that it is an endemic bee from a very threatened Neotropical dry forest, the results herein could be useful to the development of conservation strategies for P. seridoensis.

Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Assis, Jorge; Araújo, Miguel B; Serrão, Ester A

2018-01-01

Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial-interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid-Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross-validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm-temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum-Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evidence disputing deforestation as the cause for the collapse of the ancient Maya polity of Copan, Honduras

PubMed Central

McNeil, Cameron L.; Burney, David A.; Burney, Lida Pigott

2009-01-01

Archaeologists have proposed diverse hypotheses to explain the collapse of the southern Maya lowland cities between the 8th and 10th centuries A.D. Although it generally is believed that no single factor was responsible, a commonly accepted cause is environmental degradation as a product of large-scale deforestation. To date, the most compelling scientific evidence used to support this hypothesis comes from the archaeological site of Copan, Honduras, where the analysis of a sediment core suggested a dramatic increase in forest clearance in the Late Classic period (A.D. 600–900). By contrast, in the work presented here, the authors’ analysis of a longer sediment core demonstrates that forest cover increased from A.D. 400 to A.D. 900, with arboreal pollen accounting for 59.8–71.0% of the pollen assemblage by approximately A.D. 780–980. The highest levels of deforestation are found about 900 B.C. when, at its peak, herb pollen made up 89.8% of the assemblage. A second, although less pronounced, period of elevated deforestation peaked at approximately A.D. 400 when herb pollen reached 65.3% of the assemblage. The first deforestation event likely coincided with the widespread adoption of agriculture, a pattern found elsewhere in Mesoamerica. The second period of forest clearance probably was associated with the incursion of Maya speakers into the Copan Valley and their subsequent construction of the earliest levels of the Copan Acropolis. These results refute the former hypothesis that the ancient Maya responded to their increasingly large urban population by exhausting, rather than conserving, natural resources. PMID:20018691

Reconciling multiple data sources to improve accuracy of large-scale prediction of forest disease incidence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, E.M.; Hooten, M.B.; Baker, F.A.

2011-01-01

Ecological spatial data often come from multiple sources, varying in extent and accuracy. We describe a general approach to reconciling such data sets through the use of the Bayesian hierarchical framework. This approach provides a way for the data sets to borrow strength from one another while allowing for inference on the underlying ecological process. We apply this approach to study the incidence of eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium pusillum) in Minnesota black spruce (Picea mariana). A Minnesota Department of Natural Resources operational inventory of black spruce stands in northern Minnesota found mistletoe in 11% of surveyed stands, while a small, specific-pest survey found mistletoe in 56% of the surveyed stands. We reconcile these two surveys within a Bayesian hierarchical framework and predict that 35-59% of black spruce stands in northern Minnesota are infested with dwarf mistletoe. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Assimilation of repeated woody biomass observations constrains decadal ecosystem carbon cycle uncertainty in aggrading forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallman, T. L.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Mencuccini, M.; Bloom, A. A.; Williams, M.

2017-03-01

Forest carbon sink strengths are governed by plant growth, mineralization of dead organic matter, and disturbance. Across landscapes, remote sensing can provide information about aboveground states of forests and this information can be linked to models to estimate carbon cycling in forests close to steady state. For aggrading forests this approach is more challenging and has not been demonstrated. Here we apply a Bayesian approach, linking a simple model to a range of data, to evaluate their information content, for two aggrading forests. We compare high information content analyses using local observations with retrievals using progressively sparser remotely sensed information (repeated, single, and no woody biomass observations). The net biome productivity of both forests is constrained to be a net sink with <2 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 variation across the range of inputs. However, the sequestration of particular carbon pool(s) varies with assimilated biomass information. Assimilation of repeated biomass observations reduces uncertainty and/or bias in all ecosystem C pools not just wood, compared to analyses using single or no stock information. As verification, our repeated biomass analysis explains 78-86% of variation in litter dynamics at one forest, while at the second forest total dead organic matter estimates are within observational uncertainty. The uncertainty of retrieved ecosystem traits in the repeated biomass analysis is reduced by up to 50% compared to analyses with less biomass information. This study quantifies the importance of repeated woody observations in constraining the dynamics of both wood and dead organic matter, highlighting the benefit of proposed remote sensing missions.

Population dynamics and genetic changes of Picea abies in the South Carpathians revealed by pollen and ancient DNA analyses

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Studies on allele length polymorphism designate several glacial refugia for Norway spruce (Picea abies) in the South Carpathian Mountains, but infer only limited expansion from these refugia after the last glaciation. To better understand the genetic dynamics of a South Carpathian spruce lineage, we compared ancient DNA from 10,700 and 11,000-year-old spruce pollen and macrofossils retrieved from Holocene lake sediment in the Retezat Mountains with DNA extracted from extant material from the same site. We used eight primer pairs that amplified short and variable regions of the spruce cpDNA. In addition, from the same lake sediment we obtained a 15,000-years-long pollen accumulation rate (PAR) record for spruce that helped us to infer changes in population size at this site. Results We obtained successful amplifications for Norway spruce from 17 out of 462 pollen grains tested, while the macrofossil material provided 22 DNA sequences. Two fossil sequences were found to be unique to the ancient material. Population genetic statistics showed higher genetic diversity in the ancient individuals compared to the extant ones. Similarly, statistically significant Ks and Kst values showed a considerable level of differentiation between extant and ancient populations at the same loci. Lateglacial and Holocene PAR values suggested that population size of the ancient population was small, in the range of 1/10 or 1/5 of the extant population. PAR analysis also detected two periods of rapid population growths (from ca. 11,100 and 3900 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP)) and three bottlenecks (around 9180, 7200 and 2200 cal yr BP), likely triggered by climatic change and human impact. Conclusion Our results suggest that the paternal lineages observed today in the Retezat Mountains persisted at this site at least since the early Holocene. Combination of the results from the genetic and the PAR analyses furthermore suggests that the higher level of genetic variation found in the ancient populations and the loss of ancient allele types detected in the extant individuals were likely due to the repeated bottlenecks during the Holocene; however our limited sample size did not allow us to exclude sampling effect. This study demonstrates how past population size changes inferred from PAR records can be efficiently used in combination with ancient DNA studies. The joint application of palaeoecological and population genetics analyses proved to be a powerful tool to understand the influence of past population demographic changes on the haplotype diversity and genetic composition of forest tree species. PMID:21392386

Explaining the Linguistic Diversity of Sahul Using Population Models

PubMed Central

Reesink, Ger; Singer, Ruth; Dunn, Michael

2009-01-01

The region of the ancient Sahul continent (present day Australia and New Guinea, and surrounding islands) is home to extreme linguistic diversity. Even apart from the huge Austronesian language family, which spread into the area after the breakup of the Sahul continent in the Holocene, there are hundreds of languages from many apparently unrelated families. On each of the subcontinents, the generally accepted classification recognizes one large, widespread family and a number of unrelatable smaller families. If these language families are related to each other, it is at a depth which is inaccessible to standard linguistic methods. We have inferred the history of structural characteristics of these languages under an admixture model, using a Bayesian algorithm originally developed to discover populations on the basis of recombining genetic markers. This analysis identifies 10 ancestral language populations, some of which can be identified with clearly defined phylogenetic groups. The results also show traces of early dispersals, including hints at ancient connections between Australian languages and some Papuan groups (long hypothesized, never before demonstrated). Systematic language contact effects between members of big phylogenetic groups are also detected, which can in some cases be identified with a diffusional or substrate signal. Most interestingly, however, there remains striking evidence of a phylogenetic signal, with many languages showing negligible amounts of admixture. PMID:19918360

Charcoal records reveal past occurrences of disturbances in the forests of the Kisangani region, Democratic Republic of the Congo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tshibamba Mukendi, John; Hubau, Wannes; Ntahobavuka, Honorine; Boyemba Bosela, Faustin; De Cannière, Charles; Beeckman, Hans

2014-05-01

Past disturbances have modified local density, structure and floristic composition of Central African rainforests. As such, these perturbations represent a driving force for forest dynamics and they were presumably at the origin of present-day forest mosaics. One of the most prominent disturbances within the forest is fire, leaving behind charcoal as a witness of past forest dynamics. Quantification and identification of ancient charcoal fragments found in soil layers (= pedoanthracology) allows a detailed reconstruction of forest history, including the possible occurrence of past perturbations. The primary objective of this study is to present palaeoenvironmental evidence for the existence of past disturbances in the forests of the Kisangani region (Democratic Republic of the Congo) using a pedoanthracological approach. We quantified and identified charcoal fragments from pedoanthracological excavations in the Yangambi, Yoko, Masako and Kole forest regions. Charcoal sampling was conducted in pit intervals of 10 cm, whereby pottery fragments were also registered and quantified. Floristic identifications were conducted using former protocols based on wood anatomy, which is largely preserved after charcoalification. 14 excavations were conducted and charcoal was found in most pit intervals. Specifically, 52 out of 56 sampled intervals from the Yangambi forest contained charcoal, along with 47 pit intervals from the Yoko forest reserve, 34 pit intervals from the Masako forest and 16 from the Kole forest. Highest specific anthracomasses were recorded in Yoko (167 mg charcoal per kg soil), followed by Yangambi (133 mg/kg), Masako (71,89 mg/kg) and finally Kole (42,4 mg/kg). Charcoal identifications point at a manifest presence of the family of Fabaceae (Caesalpinioideae). This family is characteristic for the tropical humid rainforest. The presence of charcoal fragments from these taxa, associated with pottery sherds on different depths within the profiles, suggests past occurrences of anthropogenic perturbations in these forests. Insights in past forest dynamics and the relative roles of climatic and anthropogenic disturbances enhance our overall understanding of present and future forest dynamics.

Bayesian time series analysis of segments of the Rocky Mountain trumpeter swan population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, Christopher K.; Sojda, Richard S.; Goodman, Daniel

2002-01-01

A Bayesian time series analysis technique, the dynamic linear model, was used to analyze counts of Trumpeter Swans (Cygnus buccinator) summering in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming from 1931 to 2000. For the Yellowstone National Park segment of white birds (sub-adults and adults combined) the estimated probability of a positive growth rate is 0.01. The estimated probability of achieving the Subcommittee on Rocky Mountain Trumpeter Swans 2002 population goal of 40 white birds for the Yellowstone segment is less than 0.01. Outside of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming white birds are estimated to have a 0.79 probability of a positive growth rate with a 0.05 probability of achieving the 2002 objective of 120 white birds. In the Centennial Valley in southwest Montana, results indicate a probability of 0.87 that the white bird population is growing at a positive rate with considerable uncertainty. The estimated probability of achieving the 2002 Centennial Valley objective of 160 white birds is 0.14 but under an alternative model falls to 0.04. The estimated probability that the Targhee National Forest segment of white birds has a positive growth rate is 0.03. In Idaho outside of the Targhee National Forest, white birds are estimated to have a 0.97 probability of a positive growth rate with a 0.18 probability of attaining the 2002 goal of 150 white birds.

Volcanic Ash-cap Forest Soils of the Inland Northwest Properties and Implications for Management and Restoration

Treesearch

Steven B. Daley-Laursen

2007-01-01

Volcanoes have been part of the Earth’s history ever since it has had a solid surface. And, volcanoes have been a part of human culture for thousands of years. In some ways, our reactions to the magnitude of a volcanic explosion haven’t evolved as much as one might think. Ranging from ancient cultures who believed that victims should be sacrificed in response to...

The deforestation story: testing for anthropogenic origins of Africa's flammable grassy biomes.

PubMed

Bond, William; Zaloumis, Nicholas P

2016-06-05

Africa has the most extensive C4 grassy biomes of any continent. They are highly flammable accounting for greater than 70% of the world's burnt area. Much of Africa's savannas and grasslands occur in climates warm enough and wet enough to support closed forests. The combination of open grassy systems and the frequent fires they support have long been interpreted as anthropogenic artefacts caused by humans igniting frequent fires. True grasslands, it was believed, would be restricted to climates too dry or too cold to support closed woody vegetation. The idea that higher-rainfall savannas are anthropogenic and that fires are of human origin has led to initiatives to 'reforest' Africa's open grassy systems paid for by carbon credits under the assumption that the net effect of converting these system to forests would sequester carbon, reduce greenhouse gases and mitigate global warming. This paper reviews evidence for the antiquity of African grassy ecosystems and for the fires that they sustain. Africa's grassy biomes and the fires that maintain them are ancient and there is no support for the idea that humans caused large-scale deforestation. Indicators of old-growth grasslands are described. These can help distinguish secondary grasslands suitable for reforestation from ancient grasslands that should not be afforested.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

The deforestation story: testing for anthropogenic origins of Africa's flammable grassy biomes

PubMed Central

Zaloumis, Nicholas P.

2016-01-01

Africa has the most extensive C4 grassy biomes of any continent. They are highly flammable accounting for greater than 70% of the world's burnt area. Much of Africa's savannas and grasslands occur in climates warm enough and wet enough to support closed forests. The combination of open grassy systems and the frequent fires they support have long been interpreted as anthropogenic artefacts caused by humans igniting frequent fires. True grasslands, it was believed, would be restricted to climates too dry or too cold to support closed woody vegetation. The idea that higher-rainfall savannas are anthropogenic and that fires are of human origin has led to initiatives to ‘reforest’ Africa's open grassy systems paid for by carbon credits under the assumption that the net effect of converting these system to forests would sequester carbon, reduce greenhouse gases and mitigate global warming. This paper reviews evidence for the antiquity of African grassy ecosystems and for the fires that they sustain. Africa's grassy biomes and the fires that maintain them are ancient and there is no support for the idea that humans caused large-scale deforestation. Indicators of old-growth grasslands are described. These can help distinguish secondary grasslands suitable for reforestation from ancient grasslands that should not be afforested. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216527

Architecture of an Antagonistic Tree/Fungus Network: The Asymmetric Influence of Past Evolutionary History

PubMed Central

Vacher, Corinne; Piou, Dominique; Desprez-Loustau, Marie-Laure

2008-01-01

Background Compartmentalization and nestedness are common patterns in ecological networks. The aim of this study was to elucidate some of the processes shaping these patterns in a well resolved network of host/pathogen interactions. Methology/Principal Findings Based on a long-term (1972–2005) survey of forest health at the regional scale (all French forests; 15 million ha), we uncovered an almost fully connected network of 51 tree taxa and 157 parasitic fungal species. Our analyses revealed that the compartmentalization of the network maps out the ancient evolutionary history of seed plants, but not the ancient evolutionary history of fungal species. The very early divergence of the major fungal phyla may account for this asymmetric influence of past evolutionary history. Unlike compartmentalization, nestedness did not reflect any consistent phylogenetic signal. Instead, it seemed to reflect the ecological features of the current species, such as the relative abundance of tree species and the life-history strategies of fungal pathogens. We discussed how the evolution of host range in fungal species may account for the observed nested patterns. Conclusion/Significance Overall, our analyses emphasized how the current complexity of ecological networks results from the diversification of the species and their interactions over evolutionary times. They confirmed that the current architecture of ecological networks is not only dependant on recent ecological processes. PMID:18320058

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

PubMed

Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

2017-06-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

2017-01-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

The evolution of virulence in primate malaria parasites based on Bayesian reconstructions of ancestral states.

PubMed

Garamszegi, László Zsolt

2011-02-01

Plasmodium parasites, the causative agents of malaria, are generally considered as harmful parasites, but many of them cause mild symptoms. Little is known about the evolutionary history and phylogenetic constraints that generate this interspecific variation in virulence due to uncertainties about the phylogenetic associations of parasites. Here, to account for such phylogenetic uncertainty, phylogenetic methods based on Bayesian statistics were followed in combination with sequence data from five genes to estimate the ancestral state of virulence in primate Plasmodium parasites. When recent parasites were categorised according to the damage caused to the host, Bayesian estimates of ancestral states indicated that the acquisition of a harmful host exploitation strategy is more likely to be a recent evolutionary event than a result of an ancient change in a character state altering virulence. On the contrary, there was more evidence for moderate host exploitation having a deep origin along the phylogenetic tree. Moreover, the evolution of host severity is determined by the phylogenetic relationships of parasites, as severity gains did not appear randomly on the evolutionary tree. Such phylogenetic constraints can be mediated by the acquisition of virulence genes. As the impact of a parasite on a host is the result of both the parasite's investment in reproduction and host sensitivity, virulence was also estimated by calculating peak parasitemia after eliminating host effects. A directional random-walk evolutionary model showed that the ancestral primate malarias reproduced at very low parasitemia in their hosts. Consequently, the extreme variation in the outcome of malaria infection in different host species can be better understood in light of the phylogeny of parasites. Copyright © 2010 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Was Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus introduced into China via the ancient Silk Road? An evolutionary perspective.

PubMed

Liu, Zhenqiu; Fang, Qiwen; Zuo, Jialu; Minhas, Veenu; Wood, Charles; He, Na; Zhang, Tiejun

2017-10-01

Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) has become widely dispersed worldwide since it was first reported in 1994, but the seroprevalence of KSHV varies geographically. KSHV is relatively ubiquitous in Mediterranean areas and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. The origin of KSHV has long been puzzling. In the present study, we collected and analysed 154 KSHV ORF-K1 sequences obtained from samples originating from Xinjiang, Italy, Greece, Iran and southern Siberia using Bayesian evolutionary analysis in BEAST to test the hypothesis that KSHV was introduced into Xinjiang via the ancient Silk Road. According to the phylogenetic analysis, 72 sequences were subtype A and 82 subtype C, with C2 (n = 56) being the predominant subtype. The times to the most recent common ancestors (tMRCAs) of KSHV were 29,872 years (95% highest probability density [HPD], 26,851-32,760 years) for all analysed sequences and 2037 years (95% HPD, 1843-2229 years) for Xinjiang sequences in particular. The tMRCA of Xinjiang KSHV was exactly matched with the time period of the ancient Silk Road approximately two thousand years ago. This route began in Chang'an, the capital of the Han dynasty of China, and crossed Central Asia, ending in the Roman Empire. The evolution rate of KSHV was slow, with 3.44 × 10 -6 substitutions per site per year (95% HPD, 2.26 × 10 -6 to 4.71 × 10 -6 ), although 11 codons were discovered to be under positive selection pressure. The geographic distances from Italy to Iran and Xinjiang are more than 4000 and 7000 kilometres, respectively, but no explicit relationship between genetic distance and geographic distance was detected.

Chemical profiling of ancient hearths reveals recurrent salmon use in Ice Age Beringia

PubMed Central

Choy, Kyungcheol; Potter, Ben A.; McKinney, Holly J.; Reuther, Joshua D.; Wang, Shiway W.; Wooller, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

Current approaches to reconstruct subsistence and dietary trends in ancient hunter-gatherer societies include stable isotope analyses, but these have focused on human remains, cooking pottery, and food residues, which are relatively rare in the archaeological record. In contrast, short-term hearths are more ubiquitous worldwide, and these features can provide valuable evidence for ancient subsistence practices, particularly when faunal remains are not preserved. To test the suitability of hearths for this purpose, we conducted multiple chemical analyses: stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses of total organic matter (expressed as δ13C and δ15N values) and compound-specific carbon isotope analyses of individual fatty acids (δ13C16:0 and δ13C18:0) from 17 well-preserved hearths present in three occupations dating between ∼13,200–11,500 calibrated years B.P. at the Upward Sun River (USR) site in central Alaska. We combined δ15N and δ13CFA data in a Bayesian mixing model (stable isotope analysis in R) with concentration dependency to each hearth. Our model values were tested against faunal indices, indicating a strong positive relationship between marine proportional contributions to each hearth and salmon abundance. Results of the models show substantial anadromous salmon use in multiple USR components, indicating recurrent use of the site for salmon processing during the terminal Pleistocene. Our results demonstrate that salmonid and freshwater resources were more important for late Pleistocene hunter-gatherers than previously thought and highlight the potential of chemical profiling of hearth organic residues for providing greater geographic and temporal insights into resource use by prepottery societies. PMID:27573838

Chemical profiling of ancient hearths reveals recurrent salmon use in Ice Age Beringia.

PubMed

Choy, Kyungcheol; Potter, Ben A; McKinney, Holly J; Reuther, Joshua D; Wang, Shiway W; Wooller, Matthew J

2016-08-30

Current approaches to reconstruct subsistence and dietary trends in ancient hunter-gatherer societies include stable isotope analyses, but these have focused on human remains, cooking pottery, and food residues, which are relatively rare in the archaeological record. In contrast, short-term hearths are more ubiquitous worldwide, and these features can provide valuable evidence for ancient subsistence practices, particularly when faunal remains are not preserved. To test the suitability of hearths for this purpose, we conducted multiple chemical analyses: stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses of total organic matter (expressed as δ(13)C and δ(15)N values) and compound-specific carbon isotope analyses of individual fatty acids (δ(13)C16:0 and δ(13)C18:0) from 17 well-preserved hearths present in three occupations dating between ∼13,200-11,500 calibrated years B.P. at the Upward Sun River (USR) site in central Alaska. We combined δ(15)N and δ(13)CFA data in a Bayesian mixing model (stable isotope analysis in R) with concentration dependency to each hearth. Our model values were tested against faunal indices, indicating a strong positive relationship between marine proportional contributions to each hearth and salmon abundance. Results of the models show substantial anadromous salmon use in multiple USR components, indicating recurrent use of the site for salmon processing during the terminal Pleistocene. Our results demonstrate that salmonid and freshwater resources were more important for late Pleistocene hunter-gatherers than previously thought and highlight the potential of chemical profiling of hearth organic residues for providing greater geographic and temporal insights into resource use by prepottery societies.

Inferring Allele Frequency Trajectories from Ancient DNA Indicates That Selection on a Chicken Gene Coincided with Changes in Medieval Husbandry Practices.

PubMed

Loog, Liisa; Thomas, Mark G; Barnett, Ross; Allen, Richard; Sykes, Naomi; Paxinos, Ptolemaios D; Lebrasseur, Ophélie; Dobney, Keith; Peters, Joris; Manica, Andrea; Larson, Greger; Eriksson, Anders

2017-08-01

Ancient DNA provides an opportunity to infer the drivers of natural selection by linking allele frequency changes to temporal shifts in environment or cultural practices. However, analyses have often been hampered by uneven sampling and uncertainties in sample dating, as well as being confounded by demographic processes. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical framework for quantifying the timing and strength of selection using ancient DNA that explicitly addresses these challenges. We applied this method to time series data for two loci: TSHR and BCDO2, both hypothesised to have undergone strong and recent selection in domestic chickens. The derived variant in TSHR, associated with reduced aggression to conspecifics and faster onset of egg laying, shows strong selection beginning around 1,100 years ago, coincident with archaeological evidence for intensified chicken production and documented changes in egg and chicken consumption. To our knowledge, this is the first example of preindustrial domesticate trait selection in response to a historically attested cultural shift in food preference. For BCDO2, we find support for selection, but demonstrate that the recent rise in allele frequency could also have been driven by gene flow from imported Asian chickens during more recent breed formations. Our findings highlight that traits found ubiquitously in modern domestic species may not necessarily have originated during the early stages of domestication. In addition, our results demonstrate the importance of precise estimation of allele frequency trajectories through time for understanding the drivers of selection. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

A cosmic microwave background feature consistent with a cosmic texture.

PubMed

Cruz, M; Turok, N; Vielva, P; Martínez-González, E; Hobson, M

2007-12-07

The Cosmic Microwave Background provides our most ancient image of the universe and our best tool for studying its early evolution. Theories of high-energy physics predict the formation of various types of topological defects in the very early universe, including cosmic texture, which would generate hot and cold spots in the Cosmic Microwave Background. We show through a Bayesian statistical analysis that the most prominent 5 degrees -radius cold spot observed in all-sky images, which is otherwise hard to explain, is compatible with having being caused by a texture. From this model, we constrain the fundamental symmetry-breaking energy scale to be (0) approximately 8.7 x 10(15) gigaelectron volts. If confirmed, this detection of a cosmic defect will probe physics at energies exceeding any conceivable terrestrial experiment.

The niche and phylogeography of a passerine reveal the history of biological diversification between the Andean and the Atlantic forests.

PubMed

Trujillo-Arias, Natalia; Dantas, Gisele P M; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Naoki, Kazuya; Gómez, Maria I; Santos, Fabricio R; Miyaki, Cristina Y; Aleixo, Alexandre; Tubaro, Pablo L; Cabanne, Gustavo S

2017-07-01

The Atlantic Forest is separated from the Andean tropical forest by dry and open vegetation biomes (Chaco and Cerrado). Despite this isolation, both rainforests share closely related lineages, which suggest a past connection. This connection could have been important for forest taxa evolution. In this study, we used the Saffron-billed Sparrow (Arremon flavirostris) as a model to evaluate whether the Andean and the Atlantic forests act as a refugia system, as well as to test for a history of biogeographic connection between them. In addition, we evaluated the molecular systematic of intraspecific lineages of the studied species. We modeled the current and past distribution of A. flavirostris, performed phylogeographic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear genes, and used Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) analyses to test for biogeographic scenarios. The major phylogeographic disjunction within A. flavirostris was found between the Andean and the Atlantic forests, with a divergence that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene. Our paleodistribution models indicated a connection between these forest domains in different periods and through both the Chaco and Cerrado. Additionally, the phylogeographic and ABC analyses supported that the Cerrado was the main route of connection between these rainforests, but without giving decisive evidence against a Chaco connection. Our study with A. flavirostris suggest that the biodiversity of the Andean and of the Atlantic forests could have been impacted (and perhaps enriched?) by cycles of connections through the Cerrado and Chaco. This recurrent cycle of connection between the Andean and the Atlantic Forest could have been important for the evolution of Neotropical forest taxa. In addition, we discussed taxonomic implications of the results and proposed to split the studied taxon into two full species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Miocene woods from the Qaidam Basin on northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with implications for paleoenvironmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Ye-Ming; Yang, Xiao-Nan

2016-02-01

The Qaidam Basin with the most complete Cenozoic sedimentary preservation in northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a key area for studying uplift and environmental change of the plateau. Three types of woods, Ulmus (Ulmaceae), Leguminosae (?) (angiosperm) and Cupressaceae (gymnosperm) were recognized from the large-scale preservation of fossil woods in late Miocene Shang Youshashan Formation in northern Qaidam Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Both investigations of their Nearest Living Relatives (NLRs) and previous grassland mammal evidences suggest that there have been temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest and needle-leaved forest with grass in northern Qaidam Basin during the late Miocene in contrast to the desert vegetation found there nowadays. The presence of the ancient forest steppe further implies that the southern part of the plateau used to be adequately low, so that the Indian and East Asian monsoons could approach the northern area and to accommodate the vegetation in late Miocene.

Starch grains reveal early root crop horticulture in the Panamanian tropical forest.

PubMed

Piperno, D R; Ranere, A J; Holst, I; Hansell, P

2000-10-19

Native American populations are known to have cultivated a large number of plants and domesticated them for their starch-rich underground organs. Suggestions that the likely source of many of these crops, the tropical forest, was an early and influential centre of plant husbandry have long been controversial because the organic remains of roots and tubers are poorly preserved in archaeological sediments from the humid tropics. Here we report the occurrence of starch grains identifiable as manioc (Manihot esculenta Crantz), yams (Dioscorea sp.) and arrowroot (Maranta arundinacea L.) on assemblages of plant milling stones from preceramic horizons at the Aguadulce Shelter, Panama, dated between 7,000 and 5,000 years before present (BP). The artefacts also contain maize starch (Zea mays L.), indicating that early horticultural systems in this region were mixtures of root and seed crops. The data provide the earliest direct evidence for root crop cultivation in the Americas, and support an ancient and independent emergence of plant domestication in the lowland Neotropical forest.

Ascribing soil erosion of hillslope components to river sediment yield.

PubMed

Nosrati, Kazem

2017-06-01

In recent decades, soil erosion has increased in catchments of Iran. It is, therefore, necessary to understand soil erosion processes and sources in order to mitigate this problem. Geomorphic landforms play an important role in influencing water erosion. Therefore, ascribing hillslope components soil erosion to river sediment yield could be useful for soil and sediment management in order to decrease the off-site effects related to downstream sedimentation areas. The main objectives of this study were to apply radionuclide tracers and soil organic carbon to determine relative contributions of hillslope component sediment sources in two land use types (forest and crop field) by using a Bayesian-mixing model, as well as to estimate the uncertainty in sediment fingerprinting in a mountainous catchment of western Iran. In this analysis, 137 Cs, 40 K, 238 U, 226 Ra, 232 Th and soil organic carbon tracers were measured in 32 different sampling sites from four hillslope component sediment sources (summit, shoulder, backslope, and toeslope) in forested and crop fields along with six bed sediment samples at the downstream reach of the catchment. To quantify the sediment source proportions, the Bayesian mixing model was based on (1) primary sediment sources and (2) combined primary and secondary sediment sources. The results of both approaches indicated that erosion from crop field shoulder dominated the sources of river sediments. The estimated contribution of crop field shoulder for all river samples was 63.7% (32.4-79.8%) for primary sediment sources approach, and 67% (15.3%-81.7%) for the combined primary and secondary sources approach. The Bayesian mixing model, based on an optimum set of tracers, estimated that the highest contribution of soil erosion in crop field land use and shoulder-component landforms constituted the most important land-use factor. This technique could, therefore, be a useful tool for soil and sediment control management strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The number and biomass of microorganisms in ancient buried and recent chernozems under different land uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyanskaya, L. M.; Prikhod'ko, V. E.; Lomakin, D. G.; Chernov, I. Yu.

2016-10-01

The size, number, and biomass of bacteria and microscopic fungi were studied in chernozems of different land uses (forest, fallow, pasture, and cropland), in paleosols under mounds of different ages in the territories adjacent to the background recent chernozems; and in the cultural layer of an ancient settlement of the Bronze Age, Early Iron Age, and Early Middle Age (4100-1050 years ago). The method of cascade filtration revealed that bacterial cells had a diameter from 0.1 to 1.85 μm; their average volume varied from 0.2 to 1.1 μm3. Large bacterial cells predominated in the soils of natural biocenoses; fine cells were dominants in the arable soils and their ancient analogues. The bacterial biomass counted by the method of cascade filtration was first found to be 10-380 times greater than that determined by luminescence microscopy. The maximal bacterial biomass (350-700 μg/g) was found in the soils of the birch forest edge (~80-year-old) and under the 80-year-old fallow. In the soils of the 15-20 year-old fallows and pastures, the bacterial biomass was 110-180 μg/g; in the arable soils and soils under the mounds, it was 80-130 and 30-130 μg/g, respectively. The same sequence was recorded in soils for the content of fungal mycelium and spores, which predominated over the bacterial mass. With the increasing age of the buried paleosols from 1100 to 3900 years, the share of the biomass of fungal spores increased in the total fungal and total microbial biomasses. In the cultural layer of the Berezovaya Luka (Altai region) settlement that had been functioning about 4000 years ago, the maximal biomass and number of fungal spores and the average biomass of bacteria and fungal mycelium comparable to that in the studied soils were revealed. In this cultural layer, the organic matter content was low (Corg, 0.4%), and the content of available phosphorus was high (P2O5, 17 mg/g). These facts attest to the significant saturation of this layer with microbial cenoses 4000 years ago and to their partial preservation up to now owing to the high concentration of ancient human wastes there.

Inversion analysis of estimating interannual variability and its uncertainties in biotic and abiotic parameters of a parsimonious physiologically based model after wind disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, M.; Yokozawa, M.; Richardson, A. D.; Kohyama, T.

2011-12-01

The effects of wind disturbance on interannual variability in ecosystem CO2 exchange have been assessed in two forests in northern Japan, i.e., a young, even-aged, monocultured, deciduous forest and an uneven-aged mixed forest of evergreen and deciduous trees, including some over 200 years old using eddy covariance (EC) measurements during 2004-2008. The EC measurements have indicated that photosynthetic recovery of trees after a huge typhoon occurred during early September in 2004 activated annual carbon uptake of both forests due to changes in physiological response of tree leaves during their growth stages. However, little have been resolved about what biotic and abiotic factors regulated interannual variability in heat, water and carbon exchange between an atmosphere and forests. In recent years, an inverse modeling analysis has been utilized as a powerful tool to estimate biotic and abiotic parameters that might affect heat, water and CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and forest of a parsimonious physiologically based model. We conducted the Bayesian inverse model analysis for the model with the EC measurements. The preliminary result showed that the above model-derived NEE values were consistent with observed ones on the hourly basis with optimized parameters by Baysian inversion. In the presentation, we would examine interannual variability in biotic and abiotic parameters related to heat, water and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and forests after disturbance by typhoon.

Hybridization between mouse lemurs in an ecological transition zone in southern Madagascar.

PubMed

Gligor, M; Ganzhorn, J U; Rakotondravony, D; Ramilijaona, O R; Razafimahatratra, E; Zischler, H; Hapke, A

2009-02-01

Hybrid zones in ecotones can be useful model systems for the study of evolutionary processes that shape the distribution and discreteness of species. Such studies could be important for an improved understanding of the complex biogeography of Madagascar, which is renowned for its outstanding degree of small-scale endemism. Certain forest remnants in central Madagascar indicate that transitional corridors across the island could have connected microendemics in different forest types in the past. Evolutionary processes in such corridors are difficult to study because most of these corridors have disappeared due to deforestation in central Madagascar. We studied a hybrid zone in one of the few remaining ecotonal corridors between dry and humid forests in Madagascar, which connects two species of mouse lemurs, Microcebus griseorufus in dry spiny forest and Microcebus murinus in humid littoral forest. We sampled 162 mouse lemurs at nine sites across this boundary. Morphometric analyses revealed intermediate morphotypes of many individuals in transitional habitat. Bayesian clustering of microsatellite genotypes and assignment tests yielded evidence for a mixed ancestry of mouse lemurs in the ecotone, where we also observed significant linkage disequilibria and heterozygote deficiency. In contrast to these observations, mitochondrial haplotypes displayed a sharply delimited boundary at the eastern edge of spiny forest, which was noncoincident with the signals from microsatellite data. Among several alternative scenarios, we propose asymmetric nuclear introgression due to male-biased dispersal, divergent environmental selection, and an expansion of dry spiny forest in the course of aridification as a probable explanation of our observations.

Distinct subspecies or phenotypic plasticity? Genetic and morphological differentiation of mountain honey bees in East Africa.

PubMed

Gruber, Karl; Schöning, Caspar; Otte, Marianne; Kinuthia, Wanja; Hasselmann, Martin

2013-09-01

Identifying the forces shaping intraspecific phenotypic and genotypic divergence are of key importance in evolutionary biology. Phenotypic divergence may result from local adaptation or, especially in species with strong gene flow, from pronounced phenotypic plasticity. Here, we examine morphological and genetic divergence among populations of the western honey bee Apis mellifera in the topographically heterogeneous East African region. The currently accepted "mountain refugia hypothesis" states that populations living in disjunct montane forests belong to a different lineage than those in savanna habitats surrounding these forests. We obtained microsatellite data, mitochondrial sequences, and morphometric data from worker honey bees collected from feral colonies in three montane forests and corresponding neighboring savanna regions in Kenya. Honey bee colonies from montane forests showed distinct worker morphology compared with colonies in savanna areas. Mitochondrial sequence data did not support the existence of the two currently accepted subspecies. Furthermore, analyses of the microsatellite data with a Bayesian clustering method did not support the existence of two source populations as it would be expected under the mountain refugia scenario. Our findings suggest that phenotypic plasticity rather than distinct ancestry is the leading cause behind the phenotypic divergence observed between montane forest and savanna honey bees. Our study thus corroborates the idea that high gene flow may select for increased plasticity.

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) mediate large-scale edge effects in a lowland tropical rainforest in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Fujinuma, Junichi; Harrison, Rhett D

2012-01-01

Edge-effects greatly extend the area of tropical forests degraded through human activities. At Pasoh, Peninsular Malaysia, it has been suggested that soil disturbance by highly abundant wild pigs (Sus scrofa), which feed in adjacent Oil Palm plantations, may have mediated the invasion of Clidemia hirta (Melastomataceae) into the diverse tropical lowland rain forest. To investigate this hypothesis, we established three 1 km transects from the forest/Oil Palm plantation boundary into the forest interior. We recorded the distribution of soil disturbance by wild pigs, C. hirta abundance, and environmental variables. These data were analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporated spatial auto-correlation in the environmental variables. As predicted, soil disturbance by wild pigs declined with distance from forest edge and C. hirta abundance was correlated with the level of soil disturbance. Importantly there was no effect of distance on C. hirta abundance, after controlling for the effect of soil disturbance. Clidemia hirta abundance was also correlated with the presence of canopy openings, but there was no significant association between the occurrence of canopy openings and distance from the edge. Increased levels of soil disturbance and C. hirta abundance were still detectable approximately 1 km from the edge, demonstrating the potential for exceptionally large-scale animal mediated edge effects.

Wild Pigs (Sus scrofa) Mediate Large-Scale Edge Effects in a Lowland Tropical Rainforest in Peninsular Malaysia

PubMed Central

Fujinuma, Junichi; Harrison, Rhett D.

2012-01-01

Edge-effects greatly extend the area of tropical forests degraded through human activities. At Pasoh, Peninsular Malaysia, it has been suggested that soil disturbance by highly abundant wild pigs (Sus scrofa), which feed in adjacent Oil Palm plantations, may have mediated the invasion of Clidemia hirta (Melastomataceae) into the diverse tropical lowland rain forest. To investigate this hypothesis, we established three 1 km transects from the forest/Oil Palm plantation boundary into the forest interior. We recorded the distribution of soil disturbance by wild pigs, C. hirta abundance, and environmental variables. These data were analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporated spatial auto-correlation in the environmental variables. As predicted, soil disturbance by wild pigs declined with distance from forest edge and C. hirta abundance was correlated with the level of soil disturbance. Importantly there was no effect of distance on C. hirta abundance, after controlling for the effect of soil disturbance. Clidemia hirta abundance was also correlated with the presence of canopy openings, but there was no significant association between the occurrence of canopy openings and distance from the edge. Increased levels of soil disturbance and C. hirta abundance were still detectable approximately 1 km from the edge, demonstrating the potential for exceptionally large-scale animal mediated edge effects. PMID:22615977

Ancient Biomolecules from Deep Ice Cores Reveal a Forested Southern Greenland

PubMed Central

Willerslev, Eske; Cappellini, Enrico; Boomsma, Wouter; Nielsen, Rasmus; Hebsgaard, Martin B.; Brand, Tina B.; Hofreiter, Michael; Bunce, Michael; Poinar, Hendrik N.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Johnsen, Sigfus; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Bennike, Ole; Schwenninger, Jean-Luc; Nathan, Roger; Armitage, Simon; de Hoog, Cees-Jan; Alfimov, Vasily; Christl, Marcus; Beer, Juerg; Muscheler, Raimund; Barker, Joel; Sharp, Martin; Penkman, Kirsty E.H.; Haile, James; Taberlet, Pierre; Gilbert, M. Thomas P.; Casoli, Antonella; Campani, Elisa; Collins, Matthew J.

2009-01-01

One of the major difficulties in paleontology is the acquisition of fossil data from the 10% of Earth’s terrestrial surface that is covered by thick glaciers and ice sheets. Here we reveal that DNA and amino acids from buried organisms can be recovered from the basal sections of deep ice cores and allow reconstructions of past flora and fauna. We show that high altitude southern Greenland, currently lying below more than two kilometers of ice, was once inhabited by a diverse array of conifer trees and insects that may date back more than 450 thousand years. The results provide the first direct evidence in support of a forested southern Greenland and suggest that many deep ice cores may contain genetic records of paleoenvironments in their basal sections. PMID:17615355

Isotopic characteristics of canopies in simulated leaf assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Heather V.; Patzkowsky, Mark E.; Wing, Scott L.; Parker, Geoffrey G.; Fogel, Marilyn L.; Freeman, Katherine H.

2014-11-01

The geologic history of closed-canopy forests is of great interest to paleoecologists and paleoclimatologists alike. Closed canopies have pronounced effects on local, continental and global rainfall and temperature patterns. Although evidence for canopy closure is difficult to reconstruct from the fossil record, the characteristic isotope gradients of the ;canopy effect; could be preserved in leaves and proxy biomarkers. To assess this, we employed new carbon isotopic data for leaves collected in diverse light environments within a deciduous, temperate forest (Maryland, USA) and for leaves from a perennially closed canopy, moist tropical forest (Bosque Protector San Lorenzo, Panamá). In the tropical forest, leaf carbon isotope values range 10‰, with higher δ13Cleaf values occurring both in upper reaches of the canopy, and with higher light exposure and lower humidity. Leaf fractionation (Δleaf) varied negatively with height and light and positively with humidity. Vertical 13C enrichment in leaves largely reflects changes in Δleaf, and does not trend with δ13C of CO2 within the canopy. At the site in Maryland, leaves express a more modest δ13C range (∼6‰), with a clear trend that follows both light and leaf height. Using a model we simulate leaf assemblage isotope patterns from canopy data binned by elevation. The re-sampling (bootstrap) model determined both the mean and range of carbon isotope values for simulated leaf assemblages ranging in size from 10 to over 1000 leaves. For the tropical forest data, the canopy's isotope range is captured with 50 or more randomly sampled leaves. Thus, with a sufficient number of fossil leaves it is possible to distinguish isotopic gradients in an ancient closed canopy forest from those in an open forest. For very large leaf assemblages, mean isotopic values approximate the δ13C of carbon contributed by leaves to soil and are similar to observed δ13Clitter values at forested sites within Panamá, including the site where leaves were sampled. The model predicts a persistent ∼1‰ difference in δ13Clitter for the two sites which is consistent with higher water availability in the tropical forests. This work provides a new framework for linking contemporary ecological observations to the geochemical record using flux-weighted isotope data and lends insights to the effect of forest architecture on organic and isotopic records of ancient terrestrial ecosystems. How many leaves from a litter assemblage are necessary to distinguish the isotopic gradient characteristics of canopy closure? Are mean δ13Cleaf values for a litter assemblage diagnostic of a forest biome? Can we predict the δ13C values of cumulative litter, soil organic matter, and organic carbon in sedimentary archives using litter flux and isotope patterns in canopies? We determined the δ13C range and mean for different sized assemblages of leaves sampled from data for each forest. We re-sampled very high numbers of leaves in order to estimate the isotopic composition of cumulative carbon delivered to soils as litter, and compared these results to available data from forest soils. Modeled leaf and soil organic carbon isotope patterns in this study offer insights to how forest structure can be derived from carbon isotope measurements of fossil leaves, as well as secondary material - such as teeth, hair, paleosol carbonates, or organic soil carbon (van der Merwe and Medina, 1989; Koch, 1998; Secord et al., 2008; Levin et al., 2011).Distinct climate and seasonal difference in the Panamá and Maryland, USA forests are reflected in their canopy isotope gradients. In the tropical forest of Panamá, leaves are produced throughout the year within a canopy that is both extensively and persistently closed (Leigh, 1975; Lowman and Wittman, 1996). In the temperate forest of Maryland leaves are produced during the spring when canopy conditions are relatively open (Korner and Basler, 2010).

Tree Species Traits but Not Diversity Mitigate Stem Breakage in a Subtropical Forest following a Rare and Extreme Ice Storm

PubMed Central

Nadrowski, Karin; Pietsch, Katherina; Baruffol, Martin; Both, Sabine; Gutknecht, Jessica; Bruelheide, Helge; Heklau, Heike; Kahl, Anja; Kahl, Tiemo; Niklaus, Pascal; Kröber, Wenzel; Liu, Xiaojuan; Mi, Xiangcheng; Michalski, Stefan; von Oheimb, Goddert; Purschke, Oliver; Schmid, Bernhard; Fang, Teng; Welk, Erik; Wirth, Christian

2014-01-01

Future climates are likely to include extreme events, which in turn have great impacts on ecological systems. In this study, we investigated possible effects that could mitigate stem breakage caused by a rare and extreme ice storm in a Chinese subtropical forest across a gradient of forest diversity. We used Bayesian modeling to correct stem breakage for tree size and variance components analysis to quantify the influence of taxon, leaf and wood functional traits, and stand level properties on the probability of stem breakage. We show that the taxon explained four times more variance in individual stem breakage than did stand level properties; trees with higher specific leaf area (SLA) were less susceptible to breakage. However, a large part of the variation at the taxon scale remained unexplained, implying that unmeasured or undefined traits could be used to predict damage caused by ice storms. When aggregated at the plot level, functional diversity and wood density increased after the ice storm. We suggest that for the adaption of forest management to climate change, much can still be learned from looking at functional traits at the taxon level. PMID:24879434

Traits influencing range contraction in New Zealand's endemic forest birds.

PubMed

Parlato, Elizabeth H; Armstrong, Doug P; Innes, John G

2015-10-01

Understanding vulnerability of endemic taxa to predation is clearly important for conservation management. In New Zealand, predation by introduced mammals such as rats and mustelids is widely recognized as the primary factor responsible for declines of indigenous fauna. The aim of our study was to evaluate the vulnerability of New Zealand's surviving endemic forest bird species to impacts of introduced mammalian predators, and identify key life history attributes underlying this vulnerability. We measured range contraction following the introduction of exotic mammalian predators for 23 endemic forest bird species using information on both pre-human and current distributions. We used Bayesian modeling techniques to analyze whether variation in range contraction was associated with life history traits potentially influencing species' predation vulnerability, while accounting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our results showed that the extent of range contraction varied greatly among species, with some species remaining in available forest habitat throughout most of their pre-human range, and others having disappeared completely from the main islands. Cavity nesting was the key trait associated with more extensive range decline, suggesting that cavity-nesting species are more vulnerable to predation than species that nest in more open sites.

Influence of Climate Warming on Arctic Mammals? New Insights from Ancient DNA Studies of the Collared Lemming Dicrostonyx torquatus

PubMed Central

Prost, Stefan; Smirnov, Nickolay; Fedorov, Vadim B.; Sommer, Robert S.; Stiller, Mathias; Nagel, Doris; Knapp, Michael; Hofreiter, Michael

2010-01-01

Background Global temperature increased by approximately half a degree (Celsius) within the last 150 years. Even this moderate warming had major impacts on Earth's ecological and biological systems, especially in the Arctic where the magnitude of abiotic changes even exceeds those in temperate and tropical biomes. Therefore, understanding the biological consequences of climate change on high latitudes is of critical importance for future conservation of the species living in this habitat. The past 25,000 years can be used as a model for such changes, as they were marked by prominent climatic changes that influenced geographical distribution, demographic history and pattern of genetic variation of many extant species. We sequenced ancient and modern DNA of the collared lemming (Dicrostonyx torquatus), which is a key species of the arctic biota, from a single site (Pymva Shor, Northern Pre Urals, Russia) to see if climate warming events after the Last Glacial Maximum had detectable effects on the genetic variation of this arctic rodent species, which is strongly associated with a cold and dry climate. Results Using three dimensional network reconstructions we found a dramatic decline in genetic diversity following the LGM. Model-based approaches such as Approximate Bayesian Computation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian inference show that there is evidence for a population decline in the collared lemming following the LGM, with the population size dropping to a minimum during the Greenland Interstadial 1 (Bølling/Allerød) warming phase at 14.5 kyrs BP. Conclusion Our results show that previous climate warming events had a strong influence on genetic diversity and population size of collared lemmings. Due to its already severely compromised genetic diversity a similar population reduction as a result of the predicted future climate change could completely abolish the remaining genetic diversity in this population. Local population extinctions of collared lemmings would have severe effects on the arctic ecosystem, as collared lemmings are a key species in the trophic interactions and ecosystem processes in the Arctic. PMID:20523724

Phylogenomic analysis of a rapid radiation of misfit fishes (Syngnathiformes) using ultraconserved elements.

PubMed

Longo, S J; Faircloth, B C; Meyer, A; Westneat, M W; Alfaro, M E; Wainwright, P C

2017-08-01

Phylogenetics is undergoing a revolution as large-scale molecular datasets reveal unexpected but repeatable rearrangements of clades that were previously thought to be disparate lineages. One of the most unusual clades of fishes that has been found using large-scale molecular datasets is an expanded Syngnathiformes including traditional long-snouted syngnathiform lineages (Aulostomidae, Centriscidae, Fistulariidae, Solenostomidae, Syngnathidae), as well as a diverse set of largely benthic-associated fishes (Callionymoidei, Dactylopteridae, Mullidae, Pegasidae) that were previously dispersed across three orders. The monophyly of this surprising clade of fishes has been upheld by recent studies utilizing both nuclear and mitogenomic data, but the relationships among major lineages within Syngnathiformes remain ambiguous; previous analyses have inconsistent topologies and are plagued by low support at deep divergences between the major lineages. In this study, we use a dataset of ultraconserved elements (UCEs) to conduct the first phylogenomic study of Syngnathiformes. UCEs have been effective markers for resolving deep phylogenetic relationships in fishes and, combined with increased taxon sampling, we expected UCEs to resolve problematic syngnathiform relationships. Overall, UCEs were effective at resolving relationships within Syngnathiformes at a range of evolutionary timescales. We find consistent support for the monophyly of traditional long-snouted syngnathiform lineages (Aulostomidae, Centriscidae, Fistulariidae, Solenostomidae, Syngnathidae), which better agrees with morphological hypotheses than previously published topologies from molecular data. This result was supported by all Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses, was robust to differences in matrix completeness and potential sources of bias, and was highly supported in coalescent-based analyses in ASTRAL when matrices were filtered to contain the most phylogenetically informative loci. While Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses found support for a benthic-associated clade (Callionymidae, Dactylopteridae, Mullidae, and Pegasidae) as sister to the long-snouted clade, this result was not replicated in the ASTRAL analyses. The base of our phylogeny is characterized by short internodes separating major syngnathiform lineages and is consistent with the hypothesis of an ancient rapid radiation at the base of Syngnathiformes. Syngnathiformes therefore present an exciting opportunity to study patterns of morphological variation and functional innovation arising from rapid but ancient radiation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Multilevel Model for Microcystin Prediction in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The frequency of cyanobacteria blooms in North American lakes is increasing. A major concern with rising cyanobacteria blooms is microcystin, a common cyanobacterial hepatotoxin. To explore the conditions that promote high microcystin concentrations, we analyzed the US EPA National Lake Assessment (NLA) dataset collected in the summer of 2007. The NLA dataset is reported for nine eco-regions. We used the results of random forest modeling as a means ofvariable selection from which we developed a Bayesian multilevel model of microcystin concentrations. Model parameters under a multilevel modeling framework are eco-region specific, butthey are also assumed to be exchangeable across eco-regions for broad continental scaling. The exchangeability assumption ensures that both the common patterns and eco-region specific features will be reflected in the model. Furthermore, the method incorporates appropriate estimates of uncertainty. Our preliminary results show associations between microcystin and turbidity, total nutrients, and N:P ratios. Upon release of a comparable 2012 NLA dataset, we will apply Bayesian updating. The results will help develop management strategies to alleviate microcystin impacts and improve lake quality. This work provides a probabilistic framework for predicting microcystin presences in lakes. It would allow for insights to be made about how changes in nutrient concentrations could potentially change toxin levels.

Interglacial Extension of the Boreal Forest Limit in the Noatak Valley, Northwest Alaska: Evidence from an Exhumed River-Cut Bluff and Debris Apron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edwards, M.E.; Hamilton, T.D.; Elias, S.A.; Bigelow, N.H.; Krumhardt, A.P.

2003-01-01

Numerous exposures of Pleistocene sediments occur in the Noatak basin, which extends for 130 km along the Noatak River in northwestern Alaska. Nk-37, an extensive bluff exposure near the west end of the basin, contains a record of at least three glacial advances separated by interglacial and interstadial deposits. An ancient river-cut bluff and associated debris apron is exposed in profile through the central part of Nk-37. The debris apron contains a rich biotic record and represents part of an interglaciation that is probably assignable to marine-isotope stage 5. Pollen spectra from the lower part of the debris apron closely resemble modern samples taken from the Noatak floodplain in spruce gallery forest, and macrofossils of spruce are also present at this level. Fossil bark beetles and carpenter ants occur higher in the debris apron. Mutual Climatic Range (MCR) estimates from the fossil beetles suggest temperatures similar to or warmer than today. Together, these fossils indicate the presence of an interglacial spruce forest in the western part of the Noatak Basin, which lies about 80 km upstream of the modern limit of spruce forest.

Paleo-Antarctic rainforest into the modern Old World tropics: the rich past and threatened future of the "southern wet forest survivors".

PubMed

Kooyman, Robert M; Wilf, Peter; Barreda, Viviana D; Carpenter, Raymond J; Jordan, Gregory J; Sniderman, J M Kale; Allen, Andrew; Brodribb, Timothy J; Crayn, Darren; Feild, Taylor S; Laffan, Shawn W; Lusk, Christopher H; Rossetto, Maurizio; Weston, Peter H

2014-12-01

• Have Gondwanan rainforest floral associations survived? Where do they occur today? Have they survived continuously in particular locations? How significant is their living floristic signal? We revisit these classic questions in light of significant recent increases in relevant paleobotanical data.• We traced the extinction and persistence of lineages and associations through the past across four now separated regions-Australia, New Zealand, Patagonia, and Antarctica-using fossil occurrence data from 63 well-dated Gondwanan rainforest sites and 396 constituent taxa. Fossil sites were allocated to four age groups: Cretaceous, Paleocene-Eocene, Neogene plus Oligocene, and Pleistocene. We compared the modern and ancient distributions of lineages represented in the fossil record to see if dissimilarity increased with time. We quantified similarity-dissimilarity of composition and taxonomic structure among fossil assemblages, and between fossil and modern assemblages.• Strong similarities between ancient Patagonia and Australia confirmed shared Gondwanan rainforest history, but more of the lineages persisted in Australia. Samples of ancient Australia grouped with the extant floras of Australia, New Guinea, New Caledonia, Fiji, and Mt. Kinabalu. Decreasing similarity through time among the regional floras of Antarctica, Patagonia, New Zealand, and southern Australia reflects multiple extinction events.• Gondwanan rainforest lineages contribute significantly to modern rainforest community assembly and often co-occur in widely separated assemblages far from their early fossil records. Understanding how and where lineages from ancient Gondwanan assemblages co-occur today has implications for the conservation of global rainforest vegetation, including in the Old World tropics. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Protection against fire in the mountainous forests of Greece case study: forest complex of W. Nestos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drosos, Vasileios C.; Giannoulas, Vasileios J.; Stergiadou, Anastasia; Karagiannis, Evaggelos; Doukas, Aristotelis-Kosmas G.

2014-08-01

Forest fires are an ancient phenomenon. Appear, however, with devastating frequency and intensity over the last 30 years. In our country, the climatic conditions in combination with the intense relief, favor their rapid spread. Considering the fact that environmental conditions provided for decades even worse (increased temperature, drought and vegetation), then the problem of forest fires in our country, is expected to become more intense. The work focuses on the optimization model of the opening up of the forest mountain areas taking into account the prevention and suppression of forest fires. Research area is the mountain forest complex of W. Nestos of Drama Prefecture. The percentage of forest protection area is examined under the light whether the total hose length corresponds to the actual operational capacity to reach a fire source. For this reason are decided to present a three case study concerning area of the forest being protected by fire extinguishing vehicles. The first one corresponds to a fire suppression bandwidth (buffer zone) with a capacity radius of 150m uphill and 250m downhill from the origin point where the fire extinguishing vehicle stands. The second one corresponds to a fire suppression capacity of 200m uphill and 400m downhill and the third one corresponds to a fire suppression capacity of 300m uphill and 500m downhill. The most important forest technical infrastructures to prevent fire are roads network (opening up) for fire protection and buffer zones. Patrols of small and agile 4 × 4 appropriately equipped (pipe length of 500 meters and putting pressure on uphill to 300 meters) for the first attack of the fire in the summer months coupled with early warning of fire observatories adequately cover the forest protection of W. Nestos complex. But spatial distribution needed improvements to a road density of the optimum economic Dec, both forest protection and for better management (skidding) of woody capital.

Net aboveground biomass declines of four major forest types with forest ageing and climate change in western Canada's boreal forests.

PubMed

Chen, Han Y H; Luo, Yong

2015-10-01

Biomass change of the world's forests is critical to the global carbon cycle. Despite storing nearly half of global forest carbon, the boreal biome of diverse forest types and ages is a poorly understood component of the carbon cycle. Using data from 871 permanent plots in the western boreal forest of Canada, we examined net annual aboveground biomass change (ΔAGB) of four major forest types between 1958 and 2011. We found that ΔAGB was higher for deciduous broadleaf (DEC) (1.44 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) , 95% Bayesian confidence interval (CI), 1.22-1.68) and early-successional coniferous forests (ESC) (1.42, CI, 1.30-1.56) than mixed forests (MIX) (0.80, CI, 0.50-1.11) and late-successional coniferous (LSC) forests (0.62, CI, 0.39-0.88). ΔAGB declined with forest age as well as calendar year. After accounting for the effects of forest age, ΔAGB declined by 0.035, 0.021, 0.032 and 0.069 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) per calendar year in DEC, ESC, MIX and LSC forests, respectively. The ΔAGB declines resulted from increased tree mortality and reduced growth in all forest types except DEC, in which a large biomass loss from mortality was accompanied with a small increase in growth. With every degree of annual temperature increase, ΔAGB decreased by 1.00, 0.20, 0.55 and 1.07 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) in DEC, ESC, MIX and LSC forests, respectively. With every cm decrease of annual climatic moisture availability, ΔAGB decreased 0.030, 0.045 and 0.17 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) in ESC, MIX and LSC forests, but changed little in DEC forests. Our results suggest that persistent warming and decreasing water availability have profound negative effects on forest biomass in the boreal forests of western Canada. Furthermore, our results indicate that forest responses to climate change are strongly dependent on forest composition with late-successional coniferous forests being most vulnerable to climate changes in terms of aboveground biomass. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An agglomerative hierarchical clustering approach to visualisation in Bayesian clustering problems

PubMed Central

Dawson, Kevin J.; Belkhir, Khalid

2009-01-01

Clustering problems (including the clustering of individuals into outcrossing populations, hybrid generations, full-sib families and selfing lines) have recently received much attention in population genetics. In these clustering problems, the parameter of interest is a partition of the set of sampled individuals, - the sample partition. In a fully Bayesian approach to clustering problems of this type, our knowledge about the sample partition is represented by a probability distribution on the space of possible sample partitions. Since the number of possible partitions grows very rapidly with the sample size, we can not visualise this probability distribution in its entirety, unless the sample is very small. As a solution to this visualisation problem, we recommend using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm, which we call the exact linkage algorithm. This algorithm is a special case of the maximin clustering algorithm that we introduced previously. The exact linkage algorithm is now implemented in our software package Partition View. The exact linkage algorithm takes the posterior co-assignment probabilities as input, and yields as output a rooted binary tree, - or more generally, a forest of such trees. Each node of this forest defines a set of individuals, and the node height is the posterior co-assignment probability of this set. This provides a useful visual representation of the uncertainty associated with the assignment of individuals to categories. It is also a useful starting point for a more detailed exploration of the posterior distribution in terms of the co-assignment probabilities. PMID:19337306

Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

2017-01-01

Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

Characterizing regional-scale temporal evolution of air dose rates after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

PubMed

Wainwright, Haruko M; Seki, Akiyuki; Mikami, Satoshi; Saito, Kimiaki

2018-09-01

In this study, we quantify the temporal changes of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan, and predict the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the future. We first apply the Bayesian geostatistical method developed by Wainwright et al. (2017) to integrate multiscale datasets including ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy. This method is based on geostatistics to represent spatial heterogeneous structures, and also on Bayesian hierarchical models to integrate multiscale, multi-type datasets in a consistent manner. We apply this method to the datasets from three years: 2014 to 2016. The temporal changes among the three integrated maps enables us to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of radiation air dose rates. The data-driven ecological decay model is then coupled with the integrated map to predict future dose rates. Results show that the air dose rates are decreasing consistently across the region. While slower in the forested region, the decrease is particularly significant in the town area. The decontamination has contributed to significant reduction of air dose rates. By 2026, the air dose rates will continue to decrease, and the area above 3.8 μSv/h will be almost fully contained within the non-residential forested zone. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strong spatial structure, Pliocene diversification and cryptic diversity in the Neotropical dry forest spider Sicarius cariri.

PubMed

Magalhaes, Ivan L F; Oliveira, Ubirajara; Santos, Fabrício R; Vidigal, Teofânia H D A; Brescovit, Antonio D; Santos, Adalberto J

2014-11-01

The Brazilian Caatinga is part of the seasonally dry tropical forests, a vegetation type disjunctly distributed throughout the Neotropics. It has been suggested that during Pleistocene glacial periods, these dry forests had a continuous distribution, so that these climatic shifts may have acted as important driving forces of the Caatinga biota diversification. To address how these events affected the distribution of a dry forest species, we chose Sicarius cariri, a spider endemic to the Caatinga, as a model. We studied the phylogeography of one mitochondrial and one nuclear gene and reconstructed the paleodistribution of the species using modelling algorithms. We found two allopatric and deeply divergent clades within S. cariri, suggesting that this species as currently recognized might consist of more than one independently evolving lineage. Sicarius cariri populations are highly structured, with low haplotype sharing among localities, high fixation index and isolation by distance. Models of paleodistribution, Bayesian reconstructions and coalescent simulations suggest that this species experienced a reduction in its population size during glacial periods, rather than the expansion expected by previous hypotheses on the paleodistribution of dry forest taxa. In addition to that, major splits of intraspecific lineages of S. cariri took place in the Pliocene. Taken together, these results indicate S. cariri has a complex diversification history dating back to the Tertiary, suggesting the history of dry forest taxa may be significantly older than previously thought. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating changes in stream fish species richness over a 50-year time-period within a landscape context

USGS Publications Warehouse

Midway, Stephen R.; Wagner, Tyler; Tracy, Bryn H.; Hogue, Gabriela M.; Starnes, Wayne C.

2015-01-01

Worldwide, streams and rivers are facing a suite of pressures that alter water quality and degrade physical habitat, both of which can lead to changes in the composition and richness of fish populations. These potential changes are of particular importance in the Southeast USA, home to one of the richest stream fish assemblages in North America. Using data from 83 stream sites in North Carolina sampled in the 1960’s and the past decade, we used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate relationships between species richness and catchment land use and land cover (e.g., agriculture and forest cover). In addition, we examined how the rate of change in species richness over 50 years was related to catchment land use and land cover. We found a negative and positive correlation between forest land cover and agricultural land use and average species richness, respectively. After controlling for introduced species, most (66 %) stream sites showed an increase in native fish species richness, and the magnitude of the rate of increase was positively correlated to the amount of forested land cover in the catchment. Site-specific trends in species richness were not positive, on average, until the percentage forest cover in the network catchment exceeded about 55 %. These results suggest that streams with catchments that have moderate to high (>55 %) levels of forested land in upstream network catchments may be better able to increase the number of native species at a faster rate compared to less-forested catchments.

Water chemistry in 179 randomly selected Swedish headwater streams related to forest production, clear-felling and climate.

PubMed

Löfgren, Stefan; Fröberg, Mats; Yu, Jun; Nisell, Jakob; Ranneby, Bo

2014-12-01

From a policy perspective, it is important to understand forestry effects on surface waters from a landscape perspective. The EU Water Framework Directive demands remedial actions if not achieving good ecological status. In Sweden, 44 % of the surface water bodies have moderate ecological status or worse. Many of these drain catchments with a mosaic of managed forests. It is important for the forestry sector and water authorities to be able to identify where, in the forested landscape, special precautions are necessary. The aim of this study was to quantify the relations between forestry parameters and headwater stream concentrations of nutrients, organic matter and acid-base chemistry. The results are put into the context of regional climate, sulphur and nitrogen deposition, as well as marine influences. Water chemistry was measured in 179 randomly selected headwater streams from two regions in southwest and central Sweden, corresponding to 10 % of the Swedish land area. Forest status was determined from satellite images and Swedish National Forest Inventory data using the probabilistic classifier method, which was used to model stream water chemistry with Bayesian model averaging. The results indicate that concentrations of e.g. nitrogen, phosphorus and organic matter are related to factors associated with forest production but that it is not forestry per se that causes the excess losses. Instead, factors simultaneously affecting forest production and stream water chemistry, such as climate, extensive soil pools and nitrogen deposition, are the most likely candidates The relationships with clear-felled and wetland areas are likely to be direct effects.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling.

PubMed

Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K; Murphy, Lora

2018-01-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

2018-01-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

Long-term colonization ecology of forest-dwelling species in a fragmented rural landscape - dispersal versus establishment.

PubMed

Lõhmus, Kertu; Paal, Taavi; Liira, Jaan

2014-08-01

Species colonization in a new habitat patch is an efficiency indicator of biodiversity conservation. Colonization is a two-step process of dispersal and establishment, characterized by the compatibility of plant traits with landscape structure and habitat conditions. Therefore, ecological trait profiling of specialist species is initially required to estimate the relative importance of colonization filters. Old planted parks best satisfy the criteria of a newly created and structurally matured habitat for forest-dwelling plant species. We sampled species in 230 ancient deciduous forests (source habitat), 74 closed-canopy manor parks (target habitats), 151 linear wooded habitats (landscape corridors), and 97 open habitats (isolating matrix) in Estonia. We defined two species groups of interest: forest (107 species) and corridor specialists (53 species). An extra group of open habitat specialists was extracted for trait scaling. Differing from expectations, forest specialists have high plasticity in reproduction mechanisms: smaller seeds, larger dispersules, complementary selfing ability, and diversity of dispersal vectors. Forest specialists are shorter, less nutrient-demanding and mycorrhizal-dependent, stress-tolerant disturbance-sensitive competitors, while corridor specialists are large-seeded disturbance-tolerant competitors. About 40% of species from local species pools have immigrated into parks. The historic forest area, establishment-related traits, and stand quality enhance the colonization of forest specialists. The openness of landscape and mowing in the park facilitate corridor specialists. Species traits in parks vary between a forest and corridor specialist, except for earlier flowering and larger propagules. Forest species are not dispersal limited, but they continue to be limited by habitat properties even in the long term. Therefore, the shady parts of historic parks should be appreciated as important forest biodiversity-enhancing landscape structures. The habitat quality of secondary stands can be improved by nurturing a heterogeneous shrub and tree layer, and modest herb layer management.

Long-term colonization ecology of forest-dwelling species in a fragmented rural landscape – dispersal versus establishment

PubMed Central

Lõhmus, Kertu; Paal, Taavi; Liira, Jaan

2014-01-01

Species colonization in a new habitat patch is an efficiency indicator of biodiversity conservation. Colonization is a two-step process of dispersal and establishment, characterized by the compatibility of plant traits with landscape structure and habitat conditions. Therefore, ecological trait profiling of specialist species is initially required to estimate the relative importance of colonization filters. Old planted parks best satisfy the criteria of a newly created and structurally matured habitat for forest-dwelling plant species. We sampled species in 230 ancient deciduous forests (source habitat), 74 closed-canopy manor parks (target habitats), 151 linear wooded habitats (landscape corridors), and 97 open habitats (isolating matrix) in Estonia. We defined two species groups of interest: forest (107 species) and corridor specialists (53 species). An extra group of open habitat specialists was extracted for trait scaling. Differing from expectations, forest specialists have high plasticity in reproduction mechanisms: smaller seeds, larger dispersules, complementary selfing ability, and diversity of dispersal vectors. Forest specialists are shorter, less nutrient-demanding and mycorrhizal-dependent, stress-tolerant disturbance-sensitive competitors, while corridor specialists are large-seeded disturbance-tolerant competitors. About 40% of species from local species pools have immigrated into parks. The historic forest area, establishment-related traits, and stand quality enhance the colonization of forest specialists. The openness of landscape and mowing in the park facilitate corridor specialists. Species traits in parks vary between a forest and corridor specialist, except for earlier flowering and larger propagules. Forest species are not dispersal limited, but they continue to be limited by habitat properties even in the long term. Therefore, the shady parts of historic parks should be appreciated as important forest biodiversity-enhancing landscape structures. The habitat quality of secondary stands can be improved by nurturing a heterogeneous shrub and tree layer, and modest herb layer management. PMID:25247068

Multiflora rose invasion amplifies prevalence of Lyme disease pathogen, but not necessarily Lyme disease risk.

PubMed

Adalsteinsson, Solny A; Shriver, W Gregory; Hojgaard, Andrias; Bowman, Jacob L; Brisson, Dustin; D'Amico, Vincent; Buler, Jeffrey J

2018-01-23

Forests in urban landscapes differ from their rural counterparts in ways that may alter vector-borne disease dynamics. In urban forest fragments, tick-borne pathogen prevalence is not well characterized; mitigating disease risk in densely-populated urban landscapes requires understanding ecological factors that affect pathogen prevalence. We trapped blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) nymphs in urban forest fragments on the East Coast of the United States and used multiplex real-time PCR assays to quantify the prevalence of four zoonotic, tick-borne pathogens. We used Bayesian logistic regression and WAIC model selection to understand how vegetation, habitat, and landscape features of urban forests relate to the prevalence of B. burgdorferi (the causative agent of Lyme disease) among blacklegged ticks. In the 258 nymphs tested, we detected Borrelia burgdorferi (11.2% of ticks), Borrelia miyamotoi (0.8%) and Anaplasma phagocytophilum (1.9%), but we did not find Babesia microti (0%). Ticks collected from forests invaded by non-native multiflora rose (Rosa multiflora) had greater B. burgdorferi infection rates (mean = 15.9%) than ticks collected from uninvaded forests (mean = 7.9%). Overall, B. burgdorferi prevalence among ticks was positively related to habitat features (e.g. coarse woody debris and total understory cover) favorable for competent reservoir host species. Understory structure provided by non-native, invasive shrubs appears to aggregate ticks and reservoir hosts, increasing opportunities for pathogen transmission. However, when we consider pathogen prevalence among nymphs in context with relative abundance of questing nymphs, invasive plants do not necessarily increase disease risk. Although pathogen prevalence is greater among ticks in invaded forests, the probability of encountering an infected tick remains greater in uninvaded forests characterized by thick litter layers, sparse understories, and relatively greater questing tick abundance in urban landscapes.

Avian species richness in relation to intensive forest management practices in early seral tree plantations.

PubMed

Jones, Jay E; Kroll, Andrew J; Giovanini, Jack; Duke, Steven D; Ellis, Tana M; Betts, Matthew G

2012-01-01

Managers of landscapes dedicated to forest commodity production require information about how practices influence biological diversity. Individual species and communities may be threatened if management practices truncate or simplify forest age classes that are essential for reproduction and survival. For instance, the degradation and loss of complex diverse forest in young age classes have been associated with declines in forest-associated Neotropical migrant bird populations in the Pacific Northwest, USA. These declines may be exacerbated by intensive forest management practices that reduce hardwood and broadleaf shrub cover in order to promote growth of economically valuable tree species in plantations. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to evaluate relationships between avian species richness and vegetation variables that reflect stand management intensity (primarily via herbicide application) on 212 tree plantations in the Coast Range, Oregon, USA. Specifically, we estimated the influence of broadleaf hardwood vegetation cover, which is reduced through herbicide applications, on bird species richness and individual species occupancy. Our model accounted for imperfect detection. We used average predictive comparisons to quantify the degree of association between vegetation variables and species richness. Both conifer and hardwood cover were positively associated with total species richness, suggesting that these components of forest stand composition may be important predictors of alpha diversity. Estimates of species richness were 35-80% lower when imperfect detection was ignored (depending on covariate values), a result that has critical implications for previous efforts that have examined relationships between forest composition and species richness. Our results revealed that individual and community responses were positively associated with both conifer and hardwood cover. In our system, patterns of bird community assembly appear to be associated with stand management strategies that retain or increase hardwood vegetation while simultaneously regenerating the conifer cover in commercial tree plantations.

Paleogene Radiation of a Plant Pathogenic Mushroom

PubMed Central

Coetzee, Martin P. A.; Bloomer, Paulette; Wingfield, Michael J.; Wingfield, Brenda D.

2011-01-01

Background The global movement and speciation of fungal plant pathogens is important, especially because of the economic losses they cause and the ease with which they are able to spread across large areas. Understanding the biogeography and origin of these plant pathogens can provide insights regarding their dispersal and current day distribution. We tested the hypothesis of a Gondwanan origin of the plant pathogenic mushroom genus Armillaria and the currently accepted premise that vicariance accounts for the extant distribution of the species. Methods The phylogeny of a selection of Armillaria species was reconstructed based on Maximum Parsimony (MP), Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Bayesian Inference (BI). A timeline was then placed on the divergence of lineages using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock approach. Results Phylogenetic analyses of sequenced data for three combined nuclear regions provided strong support for three major geographically defined clades: Holarctic, South American-Australasian and African. Molecular dating placed the initial radiation of the genus at 54 million years ago within the Early Paleogene, postdating the tectonic break-up of Gondwana. Conclusions The distribution of extant Armillaria species is the result of ancient long-distance dispersal rather than vicariance due to continental drift. As these finding are contrary to most prior vicariance hypotheses for fungi, our results highlight the important role of long-distance dispersal in the radiation of fungal pathogens from the Southern Hemisphere. PMID:22216099

Bermuda as an Evolutionary Life Raft for an Ancient Lineage of Endangered Lizards

PubMed Central

Brandley, Matthew C.; Wang, Yuezhao; Guo, Xianguang; Nieto Montes de Oca, Adrián; Fería Ortíz, Manuel; Hikida, Tsutomu; Ota, Hidetoshi

2010-01-01

Oceanic islands are well known for harboring diverse species assemblages and are frequently the basis of research on adaptive radiation and neoendemism. However, a commonly overlooked role of some islands is their function in preserving ancient lineages that have become extinct everywhere else (paleoendemism). The island archipelago of Bermuda is home to a single species of extant terrestrial vertebrate, the endemic skink Plestiodon (formerly Eumeces) longirostris. The presence of this species is surprising because Bermuda is an isolated, relatively young oceanic island approximately 1000 km from the eastern United States. Here, we apply Bayesian phylogenetic analyses using a relaxed molecular clock to demonstrate that the island of Bermuda, although no older than two million years, is home to the only extant representative of one of the earliest mainland North American Plestiodon lineages, which diverged from its closest living relatives 11.5 to 19.8 million years ago. This implies that, within a short geological time frame, mainland North American ancestors of P. longirostris colonized the recently emergent Bermuda and the entire lineage subsequently vanished from the mainland. Thus, our analyses reveal that Bermuda is an example of a “life raft” preserving millions of years of unique evolutionary history, now at the brink of extinction. Threats such as habitat destruction, littering, and non-native species have severely reduced the population size of this highly endangered lizard. PMID:20614024

Bermuda as an evolutionary life raft for an ancient lineage of endangered lizards.

PubMed

Brandley, Matthew C; Wang, Yuezhao; Guo, Xianguang; Nieto Montes de Oca, Adrián; Fería Ortíz, Manuel; Hikida, Tsutomu; Ota, Hidetoshi

2010-06-30

Oceanic islands are well known for harboring diverse species assemblages and are frequently the basis of research on adaptive radiation and neoendemism. However, a commonly overlooked role of some islands is their function in preserving ancient lineages that have become extinct everywhere else (paleoendemism). The island archipelago of Bermuda is home to a single species of extant terrestrial vertebrate, the endemic skink Plestiodon (formerly Eumeces) longirostris. The presence of this species is surprising because Bermuda is an isolated, relatively young oceanic island approximately 1000 km from the eastern United States. Here, we apply Bayesian phylogenetic analyses using a relaxed molecular clock to demonstrate that the island of Bermuda, although no older than two million years, is home to the only extant representative of one of the earliest mainland North American Plestiodon lineages, which diverged from its closest living relatives 11.5 to 19.8 million years ago. This implies that, within a short geological time frame, mainland North American ancestors of P. longirostris colonized the recently emergent Bermuda and the entire lineage subsequently vanished from the mainland. Thus, our analyses reveal that Bermuda is an example of a "life raft" preserving millions of years of unique evolutionary history, now at the brink of extinction. Threats such as habitat destruction, littering, and non-native species have severely reduced the population size of this highly endangered lizard.

Distinct subspecies or phenotypic plasticity? Genetic and morphological differentiation of mountain honey bees in East Africa

PubMed Central

Gruber, Karl; Schöning, Caspar; Otte, Marianne; Kinuthia, Wanja; Hasselmann, Martin

2013-01-01

Identifying the forces shaping intraspecific phenotypic and genotypic divergence are of key importance in evolutionary biology. Phenotypic divergence may result from local adaptation or, especially in species with strong gene flow, from pronounced phenotypic plasticity. Here, we examine morphological and genetic divergence among populations of the western honey bee Apis mellifera in the topographically heterogeneous East African region. The currently accepted “mountain refugia hypothesis” states that populations living in disjunct montane forests belong to a different lineage than those in savanna habitats surrounding these forests. We obtained microsatellite data, mitochondrial sequences, and morphometric data from worker honey bees collected from feral colonies in three montane forests and corresponding neighboring savanna regions in Kenya. Honey bee colonies from montane forests showed distinct worker morphology compared with colonies in savanna areas. Mitochondrial sequence data did not support the existence of the two currently accepted subspecies. Furthermore, analyses of the microsatellite data with a Bayesian clustering method did not support the existence of two source populations as it would be expected under the mountain refugia scenario. Our findings suggest that phenotypic plasticity rather than distinct ancestry is the leading cause behind the phenotypic divergence observed between montane forest and savanna honey bees. Our study thus corroborates the idea that high gene flow may select for increased plasticity. PMID:24223262

Ancient and modern environmental DNA

PubMed Central

Pedersen, Mikkel Winther; Overballe-Petersen, Søren; Ermini, Luca; Sarkissian, Clio Der; Haile, James; Hellstrom, Micaela; Spens, Johan; Thomsen, Philip Francis; Bohmann, Kristine; Cappellini, Enrico; Schnell, Ida Bærholm; Wales, Nathan A.; Carøe, Christian; Campos, Paula F.; Schmidt, Astrid M. Z.; Gilbert, M. Thomas P.; Hansen, Anders J.; Orlando, Ludovic; Willerslev, Eske

2015-01-01

DNA obtained from environmental samples such as sediments, ice or water (environmental DNA, eDNA), represents an important source of information on past and present biodiversity. It has revealed an ancient forest in Greenland, extended by several thousand years the survival dates for mainland woolly mammoth in Alaska, and pushed back the dates for spruce survival in Scandinavian ice-free refugia during the last glaciation. More recently, eDNA was used to uncover the past 50 000 years of vegetation history in the Arctic, revealing massive vegetation turnover at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition, with implications for the extinction of megafauna. Furthermore, eDNA can reflect the biodiversity of extant flora and fauna, both qualitatively and quantitatively, allowing detection of rare species. As such, trace studies of plant and vertebrate DNA in the environment have revolutionized our knowledge of biogeography. However, the approach remains marred by biases related to DNA behaviour in environmental settings, incomplete reference databases and false positive results due to contamination. We provide a review of the field. PMID:25487334

Phylogenetic analysis in Myrcia section Aulomyrcia and inferences on plant diversity in the Atlantic rainforest

PubMed Central

Staggemeier, Vanessa Graziele; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Forest, Félix; Lucas, Eve

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Myrcia section Aulomyrcia includes ∼120 species that are endemic to the Neotropics and disjunctly distributed in the moist Amazon and Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. This paper presents the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group and this phylogeny is used as a basis to evaluate recent classification systems and to test alternative hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. Methods Fifty-three taxa were sampled out of the 120 species currently recognized, plus 40 outgroup taxa, for one nuclear marker (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, trnL-trnF, trnQ-rpS16 and ndhF). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses. Additionally, a likelihood approach, ‘geographic state speciation and extinction’, was used to estimate region- dependent rates of speciation, extinction and dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable areas (refugia) and unstable areas. Key Results Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Myrcia and Marlierea are polyphyletic, and the internal groupings recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Amazonian and north-eastern species and between north-eastern and south-eastern species. Lower extinction rates within glacial refugia suggest that these areas were important in maintaining diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. Conclusions This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important ecological questions for Myrcia s.l. within an evolutionary context, and supports the need to unite taxonomically the two traditional genera Myrcia and Marlierea in an expanded Myrcia s.l. Furthermore, this study offers valuable insights into the diversification of plant species in the highly impacted Atlantic forest of South America; evidence is presented that the lowest extinction rates are found inside refugia and that range expansion from unstable areas contributes to the highest levels of plant diversity in the Bahian refugium. PMID:25757471

Drought-Adaptation Potential in Fagus sylvatica: Linking Moisture Availability with Genetic Diversity and Dendrochronology

PubMed Central

Pluess, Andrea R.; Weber, Pascale

2012-01-01

Background Microevolution is essential for species persistence especially under anticipated climate change scenarios. Species distribution projection models suggested that the dominant tree species of lowland forests in Switzerland, European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), might disappear from most areas due to expected longer dry periods. However, if genotypes at the moisture boundary of the species climatic envelope are adapted to lower moisture availability, they can serve as seed source for the continuation of beech forests under changing climates. Methodology/Principal Findings With an AFLP genome scan approach, we studied neutral and potentially adaptive genetic variation in Fagus sylvatica in three regions containing a dry and a mesic site each (n ind. = 241, n markers = 517). We linked this dataset with dendrochronological growth measures and local moisture availabilities based on precipitation and soil characteristics. Genetic diversity decreased slightly at dry sites. Overall genetic differentiation was low (F st = 0.028) and Bayesian cluster analysis grouped all populations together suggesting high (historical) gene flow. The Bayesian outlier analyses indicated 13 markers with three markers differing between all dry and mesic sites and the others between the contrasting sites within individual regions. A total of 41 markers, including seven outlier loci, changed their frequency with local moisture availability. Tree height and median basal growth increments were reduced at dry sites, but marker presence/absence was not related to dendrochronological characteristics. Conclusion and Their Significance The outlier alleles and the makers with changing frequencies in relation to moisture availability indicate microevolutionary processes occurring within short geographic distances. The general genetic similarity among sites suggests that ‘preadaptive’ genes can easily spread across the landscape. Yet, due to the long live span of trees, fostering saplings originating from dry sites and grown within mesic sites might increase resistance of beech forests during the anticipated longer dry periods. PMID:22448260

Drought-adaptation potential in Fagus sylvatica: linking moisture availability with genetic diversity and dendrochronology.

PubMed

Pluess, Andrea R; Weber, Pascale

2012-01-01

Microevolution is essential for species persistence especially under anticipated climate change scenarios. Species distribution projection models suggested that the dominant tree species of lowland forests in Switzerland, European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), might disappear from most areas due to expected longer dry periods. However, if genotypes at the moisture boundary of the species climatic envelope are adapted to lower moisture availability, they can serve as seed source for the continuation of beech forests under changing climates. With an AFLP genome scan approach, we studied neutral and potentially adaptive genetic variation in Fagus sylvatica in three regions containing a dry and a mesic site each (n(ind.) = 241, n(markers) = 517). We linked this dataset with dendrochronological growth measures and local moisture availabilities based on precipitation and soil characteristics. Genetic diversity decreased slightly at dry sites. Overall genetic differentiation was low (F(st) = 0.028) and Bayesian cluster analysis grouped all populations together suggesting high (historical) gene flow. The Bayesian outlier analyses indicated 13 markers with three markers differing between all dry and mesic sites and the others between the contrasting sites within individual regions. A total of 41 markers, including seven outlier loci, changed their frequency with local moisture availability. Tree height and median basal growth increments were reduced at dry sites, but marker presence/absence was not related to dendrochronological characteristics. CONCLUSION AND THEIR SIGNIFICANCE: The outlier alleles and the makers with changing frequencies in relation to moisture availability indicate microevolutionary processes occurring within short geographic distances. The general genetic similarity among sites suggests that 'preadaptive' genes can easily spread across the landscape. Yet, due to the long live span of trees, fostering saplings originating from dry sites and grown within mesic sites might increase resistance of beech forests during the anticipated longer dry periods.

Spigelia genuflexa (Loganiaceae), a new geocarpic species from the Atlantic forest of northeastern Bahia, Brazil

PubMed Central

Popovkin, Alex V.; Mathews, Katherine G.; Santos, José Carlos Mendes; Molina, M. Carmen; Struwe, Lena

2011-01-01

Abstract A new species of Spigelia L. (Loganiaceae), Spigelia genuflexa Popovkin & Struwe, sp. n., from the Atlantic forest of northeastern Bahia, Brazil, is described, being the first reported geocarpic species in the family. During fruit maturation, the basal infructescences bend down towards the ground, depositing the fruit on the surface (and burying it in soft kinds of ground cover, e.g., moss), whereas the upper ones do so slightly but noticeably. The species is a short-lived annual apparently restricted to sandy-soil habitat of the Atlantic forest of northeastern Bahia, with variable and heterogeneous microenvironment and is known from only two restricted localities. A short review of amphi- and geocarpic species is provided. A discussion of comparative morphology within Spigelia with regards to dwarfism, indumentum, and annual habit is included. A phylogenetic parsimony and Bayesian analysis of ITS sequences from 15 Spigelia species plus 17 outgroups in Loganiaceae confirms its independent taxonomic status: on the basis of sequence similarity and phylogenetic topology it is phylogenetically distinct from all Spigelia species sequenced so far. PMID:22287919

Soil Charcoal to Assess the Impacts of Past Human Disturbances on Tropical Forests

PubMed Central

Vleminckx, Jason; Morin-Rivat, Julie; Biwolé, Achille B.; Daïnou, Kasso; Gillet, Jean-François; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Drouet, Thomas; Hardy, Olivier J.

2014-01-01

The canopy of many central African forests is dominated by light-demanding tree species that do not regenerate well under themselves. The prevalence of these species might result from ancient slash-and-burn agricultural activities that created large openings, while a decline of these activities since the colonial period could explain their deficit of regeneration. To verify this hypothesis, we compared soil charcoal abundance, used as a proxy for past slash-and-burn agriculture, and tree species composition assessed on 208 rainforest 0.2 ha plots located in three areas from Southern Cameroon. Species were classified in regeneration guilds (pioneer, non-pioneer light-demanding, shade-bearer) and characterized by their wood-specific gravity, assumed to reflect light requirement. We tested the correlation between soil charcoal abundance and: (i) the relative abundance of each guild, (ii) each species and family abundance and (iii) mean wood-specific gravity. Charcoal was found in 83% of the plots, indicating frequent past forest fires. Radiocarbon dating revealed two periods of fires: “recent” charcoal were on average 300 years old (up to 860 BP, n = 16) and occurred in the uppermost 20 cm soil layer, while “ancient” charcoal were on average 1900 years old (range: 1500 to 2800 BP, n = 43, excluding one sample dated 9400 BP), and found in all soil layers. While we expected a positive correlation between the relative abundance of light-demanding species and charcoal abundance in the upper soil layer, overall there was no evidence that the current heterogeneity in tree species composition can be explained by charcoal abundance in any soil layer. The absence of signal supporting our hypothesis might result from (i) a relatively uniform impact of past slash-and-burn activities, (ii) pedoturbation processes bringing ancient charcoal to the upper soil layer, blurring the signal of centuries-old Human disturbances, or (iii) the prevalence of other environmental factors on species composition. PMID:25391134

Palynology and the Ecology of the New Zealand Conifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGlone, Matt S.; Richardson, Sarah J.; Burge, Olivia R.; Perry, George L. W.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

2017-11-01

The New Zealand conifers (20 species of trees and shrubs in the Araucariaceae, Podocarpaceae and Cupressaceae) are often regarded as ancient Gondwanan elements, but mostly originated much later. Often thought of as tall trees of humid, warm forests, they are present throughout in alpine shrublands, tree lines, bogs, swamps, and in dry, frost-prone regions. The tall conifers rarely form purely coniferous forest and mostly occur as an emergent stratum above evergreen angiosperm trees. During Maori settlement in the 13th century, these fire-sensitive trees succumbed rapidly, most of the drier forests being lost. As these were also the more conifer-rich forests, ecological research has been skewed towards conifer dynamics of forests wetter and cooler than the pre-human norm. Conifers are well represented in the pollen record and we here we review their late Quaternary history in the light of what is known about their current ecology with the intention of countering this bias. During glacial episodes, all trees were scarce south of c. 40°S, and extensive conifer-dominant forest was confined to the northern third of the North Island. Drought- and cold-resistant Halocarpus bidwillii and Phyllocladus alpinus formed widespread scrub in the south. During the deglacial, beginning 18,000 years ago, tall conifers underwent explosive spread to dominate the forest biomass throughout. Conifer dominance lessened in favour of angiosperms in the wetter western lowland forests over the Holocene but the dryland eastern forests persisted largely unchanged until settlement. Mid to late Holocene climate change favoured the more rapidly growing Nothofagaceae which replaced the previous conifer-angiosperm low forest or shrubland in tree line ecotones and montane areas. The key to this dynamic conifer history appears to be their bimodal ability to withstand stress, and dominate on poor soils and in cool, dry regions but, in wetter, warmer locations, to slowly grow thorough competing broadleaves to occupy an exposed, emergent stratum where their inherent stress resistance ensures little effective angiosperm competition.

Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

PubMed

Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

2016-01-01

A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance-sensitive species.

Using a Data-Driven Approach to Understand the Interaction between Catchment Characteristics and Water Quality Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Western, A. W.; Lintern, A.; Liu, S.; Ryu, D.; Webb, J. A.; Leahy, P.; Wilson, P.; Waters, D.; Bende-Michl, U.; Watson, M.

2016-12-01

Many streams, lakes and estuaries are experiencing increasing concentrations and loads of nutrient and sediments. Models that can predict the spatial and temporal variability in water quality of aquatic systems are required to help guide the management and restoration of polluted aquatic systems. We propose that a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework could be used to predict water quality responses over varying spatial and temporal scales. Stream water quality data and spatial data of catchment characteristics collected throughout Victoria and Queensland (in Australia) over two decades will be used to develop this Bayesian hierarchical model. In this paper, we present the preliminary exploratory data analysis required for the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model. Specifically, we present the results of exploratory data analysis of Total Nitrogen (TN) concentrations in rivers in Victoria (in South-East Australia) to illustrate the catchment characteristics that appear to be influencing spatial variability in (1) mean concentrations of TN; and (2) the relationship between discharge and TN throughout the state. These important catchment characteristics were identified using: (1) monthly TN concentrations measured at 28 water quality gauging stations and (2) climate, land use, topographic and geologic characteristics of the catchments of these 28 sites. Spatial variability in TN concentrations had a positive correlation to fertiliser use in the catchment and average temperature. There were negative correlations between TN concentrations and catchment forest cover, annual runoff, runoff perenniality, soil erosivity and catchment slope. The relationship between discharge and TN concentrations showed spatial variability, possibly resulting from climatic and topographic differences between the sites. The results of this study will feed into the hierarchical Bayesian model of river water quality.

A case for archaeological reconnaissance of the Cabo Catoche-Porvenir region of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duller, Charles E.

1990-01-01

Satellite remote sensing technology is a tool with which archaeologists can, with relative ease, survey a region that is otherwise inaccessible. The northeast corner of the Yucatan Peninsula is such an area: it is isolated and sparsely inhabited, with dense forest and extensive swamps. From Cabo Catoche inland to Cancun, this remote corner of the ancient Maya world is virtually unexplored. Recent satellite images disclose evidence of past human activity in this unexplored region and offer a compelling argument for an archaeological reconnaissance.

Genetic diversity, genetic structure and diet of ancient and contemporary red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) from north-eastern France

PubMed Central

Granado, José; Putelat, Olivier; Arbogast, Rose-Marie; Drucker, Dorothée; Eberhard, Anna; Schmutz, Anja; Klaefiger, Yuri; Lang, Gérard; Salzburger, Walter; Schibler, Joerg; Schlumbaum, Angela; Bocherens, Hervé

2018-01-01

In north-eastern France, red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) populations were rebuilt from a few hundred individuals, which have subsisted in remote valleys of the Vosges mountains, and to a lesser extent from individuals escaped from private enclosures; at present times, this species occupies large areas, mainly in the Vosges Mountains. In this study, we examined the population dynamics of red deer in the Vosges Mountains using ancient and contemporary mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from 140 samples (23 ancient + 117 modern) spanning the last 7’000 years. In addition, we reconstructed the feeding habits and the habitat of red deer since the beginning of agriculture applying isotopic analyses in order to establish a basis for current environmental management strategies. We show that past and present red deer in the Vosges Mountains belong to mtDNA haplogroup A, suggesting that they originated from the Iberian refugium after the last glacial maximum (LGM). Palaeogenetic analysis of ancient bone material revealed the presence of two distinct haplotypes with different temporal distributions. Individuals belonging to the two haplotype groups apparently occupied two different habitats over at least 7’000 years. AM6 correlates with an ecological type that feeds in densely forested mountain landscapes, while AM235 correlates with feeding in lowland landscapes, composed of a mixture of meadows and riverine, herb-rich woodlands. Our results suggest that red deer of north-eastern France was able to adapt, over the long term, to these different habitat types, possibly due to efficient ethological barriers. Modern haplotype patterns support the historical record that red deer has been exposed to strong anthropogenic influences as a major game species. PMID:29304165

Application of airborne hyperspectral remote sensing for the retrieval of forest inventory parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dmitriev, Yegor V.; Kozoderov, Vladimir V.; Sokolov, Anton A.

2016-04-01

Collecting and updating forest inventory data play an important part in the forest management. The data can be obtained directly by using exact enough but low efficient ground based methods as well as from the remote sensing measurements. We present applications of airborne hyperspectral remote sensing for the retrieval of such important inventory parameters as the forest species and age composition. The hyperspectral images of the test region were obtained from the airplane equipped by the produced in Russia light-weight airborne video-spectrometer of visible and near infrared spectral range and high resolution photo-camera on the same gyro-stabilized platform. The quality of the thematic processing depends on many factors such as the atmospheric conditions, characteristics of measuring instruments, corrections and preprocessing methods, etc. An important role plays the construction of the classifier together with methods of the reduction of the feature space. The performance of different spectral classification methods is analyzed for the problem of hyperspectral remote sensing of soil and vegetation. For the reduction of the feature space we used the earlier proposed stable feature selection method. The results of the classification of hyperspectral airborne images by using the Multiclass Support Vector Machine method with Gaussian kernel and the parametric Bayesian classifier based on the Gaussian mixture model and their comparative analysis are demonstrated.

Spatial distribution of tree species governs the spatio-temporal interaction of leaf area index and soil moisture across a forested landscape.

PubMed

Naithani, Kusum J; Baldwin, Doug C; Gaines, Katie P; Lin, Henry; Eissenstat, David M

2013-01-01

Quantifying coupled spatio-temporal dynamics of phenology and hydrology and understanding underlying processes is a fundamental challenge in ecohydrology. While variation in phenology and factors influencing it have attracted the attention of ecologists for a long time, the influence of biodiversity on coupled dynamics of phenology and hydrology across a landscape is largely untested. We measured leaf area index (L) and volumetric soil water content (θ) on a co-located spatial grid to characterize forest phenology and hydrology across a forested catchment in central Pennsylvania during 2010. We used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to quantify spatio-temporal patterns of L and θ. Our results suggest that the spatial distribution of tree species across the landscape created unique spatio-temporal patterns of L, which created patterns of water demand reflected in variable soil moisture across space and time. We found a lag of about 11 days between increase in L and decline in θ. Vegetation and soil moisture become increasingly homogenized and coupled from leaf-onset to maturity but heterogeneous and uncoupled from leaf maturity to senescence. Our results provide insight into spatio-temporal coupling between biodiversity and soil hydrology that is useful to enhance ecohydrological modeling in humid temperate forests.

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; Safta, Cosmin; Munger, William

2017-09-01

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. The result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.

Automated high resolution mapping of coffee in Rwanda using an expert Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukashema, A.; Veldkamp, A.; Vrieling, A.

2014-12-01

African highland agro-ecosystems are dominated by small-scale agricultural fields that often contain a mix of annual and perennial crops. This makes such systems difficult to map by remote sensing. We developed an expert Bayesian network model to extract the small-scale coffee fields of Rwanda from very high resolution data. The model was subsequently applied to aerial orthophotos covering more than 99% of Rwanda and on one QuickBird image for the remaining part. The method consists of a stepwise adjustment of pixel probabilities, which incorporates expert knowledge on size of coffee trees and fields, and on their location. The initial naive Bayesian network, which is a spectral-based classification, yielded a coffee map with an overall accuracy of around 50%. This confirms that standard spectral variables alone cannot accurately identify coffee fields from high resolution images. The combination of spectral and ancillary data (DEM and a forest map) allowed mapping of coffee fields and associated uncertainties with an overall accuracy of 87%. Aggregated to district units, the mapped coffee areas demonstrated a high correlation with the coffee areas reported in the detailed national coffee census of 2009 (R2 = 0.92). Unlike the census data our map provides high spatial resolution of coffee area patterns of Rwanda. The proposed method has potential for mapping other perennial small scale cropping systems in the East African Highlands and elsewhere.

Neanderthal behaviour, diet, and disease inferred from ancient DNA in dental calculus.

PubMed

Weyrich, Laura S; Duchene, Sebastian; Soubrier, Julien; Arriola, Luis; Llamas, Bastien; Breen, James; Morris, Alan G; Alt, Kurt W; Caramelli, David; Dresely, Veit; Farrell, Milly; Farrer, Andrew G; Francken, Michael; Gully, Neville; Haak, Wolfgang; Hardy, Karen; Harvati, Katerina; Held, Petra; Holmes, Edward C; Kaidonis, John; Lalueza-Fox, Carles; de la Rasilla, Marco; Rosas, Antonio; Semal, Patrick; Soltysiak, Arkadiusz; Townsend, Grant; Usai, Donatella; Wahl, Joachim; Huson, Daniel H; Dobney, Keith; Cooper, Alan

2017-04-20

Recent genomic data have revealed multiple interactions between Neanderthals and modern humans, but there is currently little genetic evidence regarding Neanderthal behaviour, diet, or disease. Here we describe the shotgun-sequencing of ancient DNA from five specimens of Neanderthal calcified dental plaque (calculus) and the characterization of regional differences in Neanderthal ecology. At Spy cave, Belgium, Neanderthal diet was heavily meat based and included woolly rhinoceros and wild sheep (mouflon), characteristic of a steppe environment. In contrast, no meat was detected in the diet of Neanderthals from El Sidrón cave, Spain, and dietary components of mushrooms, pine nuts, and moss reflected forest gathering. Differences in diet were also linked to an overall shift in the oral bacterial community (microbiota) and suggested that meat consumption contributed to substantial variation within Neanderthal microbiota. Evidence for self-medication was detected in an El Sidrón Neanderthal with a dental abscess and a chronic gastrointestinal pathogen (Enterocytozoon bieneusi). Metagenomic data from this individual also contained a nearly complete genome of the archaeal commensal Methanobrevibacter oralis (10.2× depth of coverage)-the oldest draft microbial genome generated to date, at around 48,000 years old. DNA preserved within dental calculus represents a notable source of information about the behaviour and health of ancient hominin specimens, as well as a unique system that is useful for the study of long-term microbial evolution.

Cladistic analysis of Bantu languages: a new tree based on combined lexical and grammatical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rexová, Kateřina; Bastin, Yvonne; Frynta, Daniel

2006-04-01

The phylogeny of the Bantu languages is reconstructed by application of the cladistic methodology to the combined lexical and grammatical data (87 languages, 144 characters). A maximum parsimony tree and Bayesian analysis supported some previously recognized clades, e.g., that of eastern and southern Bantu languages. Moreover, the results revealed that Bantu languages south and east of the equatorial forest are probably monophyletic. It suggests an unorthodox scenario of Bantu expansion including (after initial radiation in their homelands and neighboring territories) just a single passage through rainforest areas followed by a subsequent divergence into major clades. The likely localization of this divergence is in the area west of the Great Lakes. It conforms to the view that demographic expansion and dispersal throughout the dry-forests and savanna regions of subequatorial Africa was associated with the acquisition of new technologies (iron metallurgy and grain cultivation).

Community managed forests dominate the catchment sediment cascade in the mid-hills of Nepal: A compound-specific stable isotope analysis.

PubMed

Upadhayay, Hari Ram; Smith, Hugh G; Griepentrog, Marco; Bodé, Samuel; Bajracharya, Roshan Man; Blake, William; Cornelis, Wim; Boeckx, Pascal

2018-05-08

Soil erosion by water is critical for soil, lake and reservoir degradation in the mid-hills of Nepal. Identification of the nature and relative contribution of sediment sources in rivers is important to mitigate water erosion within catchments and siltation problems in lakes and reservoirs. We estimated the relative contribution of land uses (i.e. sources) to suspended and streambed sediments in the Chitlang catchment using stable carbon isotope signature (δ 13 C) of long-chain fatty acids as a tracer input for MixSIAR, a Bayesian mixing model used to apportion sediment sources. Our findings reveal that the relative contribution of land uses varied between suspended and streambed sediment, but did not change over the monsoon period. Significant over- or under-prediction of source contributions could occur due to overlapping source tracer values, if source groups are classified on a catchment-wide basis. Therefore, we applied a novel deconvolutional framework of MixSIAR (D-MixSIAR) to improve source apportionment of suspended sediment collected at tributary confluences (i.e. sub-catchment level) and at the outlet of the entire catchment. The results indicated that the mixed forest was the dominant (41 ± 13%) contributor of sediment followed by broadleaf forest (15 ± 8%) at the catchment outlet during the pre-wet season, suggesting that forest disturbance as well as high rainfall and steep slopes interact for high sediment generation within the study catchment. Unpaved rural road tracks located on flat and steep slopes (11 ± 8 and 9 ± 7% respectively) almost equally contributed to the sediment. Importantly, agricultural terraces (upland and lowland) had minimal contribution (each <7%) confirming that proper terrace management and traditional irrigation systems played an important role in mitigating sediment generation and delivery. Source contributions had a small temporal, but large spatial, variation in the sediment cascade of Chitlang stream. D-MixSIAR provided significant improvement regarding spatially explicit sediment source apportionment within the entire catchment system. This information is essential to prioritize implementation measures to control erosion in community managed forests to reduce sediment loadings to Kulekhani hydropower reservoir. In conclusion, using compound-specific stable isotope (CSSI) tracers for sediment fingerprinting in combination with a deconvolutional Bayesian mixing model offers a versatile approach to deal with the large tracer variability within catchment land uses and thus to successfully apportion multiple sediment sources. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A mistletoe tale: postglacial invasion of Psittacanthus schiedeanus (Loranthaceae) to Mesoamerican cloud forests revealed by molecular data and species distribution modeling.

PubMed

Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Gándara, Etelvina; Vásquez-Aguilar, Antonio Acini; Ramírez-Barahona, Santiago; Ortiz-Rodriguez, Andrés Ernesto; González, Clementina; Mejía Saules, María Teresa; Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo

2016-04-12

Ecological adaptation to host taxa is thought to result in mistletoe speciation via race formation. However, historical and ecological factors could also contribute to explain genetic structuring particularly when mistletoe host races are distributed allopatrically. Using sequence data from nuclear (ITS) and chloroplast (trnL-F) DNA, we investigate the genetic differentiation of 31 Psittacanthus schiedeanus (Loranthaceae) populations across the Mesoamerican species range. We conducted phylogenetic, population and spatial genetic analyses on 274 individuals of P. schiedeanus to gain insight of the evolutionary history of these populations. Species distribution modeling, isolation with migration and Bayesian inference methods were used to infer the evolutionary transition of mistletoe invasion, in which evolutionary scenarios were compared through posterior probabilities. Our analyses revealed shallow levels of population structure with three genetic groups present across the sample area. Nine haplotypes were identified after sequencing the trnL-F intergenic spacer. These haplotypes showed phylogeographic structure, with three groups with restricted gene flow corresponding to the distribution of individuals/populations separated by habitat (cloud forest localities from San Luis Potosí to northwestern Oaxaca and Chiapas, localities with xeric vegetation in central Oaxaca, and localities with tropical deciduous forests in Chiapas), with post-glacial population expansions and potentially corresponding to post-glacial invasion types. Similarly, 44 ITS ribotypes suggest phylogeographic structure, despite the fact that most frequent ribotypes are widespread indicating effective nuclear gene flow via pollen. Gene flow estimates, a significant genetic signal of demographic expansion, and range shifts under past climatic conditions predicted by species distribution modeling suggest post-glacial invasion of P. schiedeanus mistletoes to cloud forests. However, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) analyses strongly supported a scenario of simultaneous divergence among the three groups isolated recently. Our results provide support for the predominant role of isolation and environmental factors in driving genetic differentiation of Mesoamerican parrot-flower mistletoes. The ABC results are consistent with a scenario of post-glacial mistletoe invasion, independent of host identity, and that habitat types recently isolated P. schiedeanus populations, accumulating slight phenotypic differences among genetic groups due to recent migration across habitats. Under this scenario, climatic fluctuations throughout the Pleistocene would have altered the distribution of suitable habitat for mistletoes throughout Mesoamerica leading to variation in population continuity and isolation. Our findings add to an understanding of the role of recent isolation and colonization in shaping cloud forest communities in the region.

Forest contraction in north equatorial Southeast Asia during the Last Glacial Period

PubMed Central

Wurster, Christopher M.; Bird, Michael I.; Bull, Ian D.; Creed, Frances; Bryant, Charlotte; Dungait, Jennifer A. J.; Paz, Victor

2010-01-01

Today, insular Southeast Asia is important for both its remarkably rich biodiversity and globally significant roles in atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Despite the fundamental importance of environmental history for diversity and conservation, there is little primary evidence concerning the nature of vegetation in north equatorial Southeast Asia during the Last Glacial Period (LGP). As a result, even the general distribution of vegetation during the Last Glacial Maximum is debated. Here we show, using the stable carbon isotope composition of ancient cave guano profiles, that there was a substantial forest contraction during the LGP on both peninsular Malaysia and Palawan, while rainforest was maintained in northern Borneo. These results directly support rainforest “refugia” hypotheses and provide evidence that environmental barriers likely reduced genetic mixing between Borneo and Sumatra flora and fauna. Moreover, it sheds light on possible early human dispersal events. PMID:20660748

Mitochondrial Analysis of the Most Basal Canid Reveals Deep Divergence between Eastern and Western North American Gray Foxes (Urocyon spp.) and Ancient Roots in Pleistocene California.

PubMed

Goddard, Natalie S; Statham, Mark J; Sacks, Benjamin N

2015-01-01

Pleistocene aridification in central North America caused many temperate forest-associated vertebrates to split into eastern and western lineages. Such divisions can be cryptic when Holocene expansions have closed the gaps between once-disjunct ranges or when local morphological variation obscures deeper regional divergences. We investigated such cryptic divergence in the gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), the most basal extant canid in the world. We also investigated the phylogeography of this species and its diminutive relative, the island fox (U. littoralis), in California. The California Floristic Province was a significant source of Pleistocene diversification for a wide range of taxa and, we hypothesized, for the gray fox as well. Alternatively, gray foxes in California potentially reflected a recent Holocene expansion from further south. We sequenced mitochondrial DNA from 169 gray foxes from the southeastern and southwestern United States and 11 island foxes from three of the Channel Islands. We estimated a 1.3% sequence divergence in the cytochrome b gene between eastern and western foxes and used coalescent simulations to date the divergence to approximately 500,000 years before present (YBP), which is comparable to that between recognized sister species within the Canidae. Gray fox samples collected from throughout California exhibited high haplotype diversity, phylogeographic structure, and genetic signatures of a late-Holocene population decline. Bayesian skyline analysis also indicated an earlier population increase dating to the early Wisconsin glaciation (~70,000 YBP) and a root height extending back to the previous interglacial (~100,000 YBP). Together these findings support California's role as a long-term Pleistocene refugium for western Urocyon. Lastly, based both on our results and re-interpretation of those of another study, we conclude that island foxes of the Channel Islands trace their origins to at least 3 distinct female founders from the mainland rather than to a single matriline, as previously suggested.

Mitochondrial Analysis of the Most Basal Canid Reveals Deep Divergence between Eastern and Western North American Gray Foxes (Urocyon spp.) and Ancient Roots in Pleistocene California

PubMed Central

Goddard, Natalie S.; Statham, Mark J.; Sacks, Benjamin N.

2015-01-01

Pleistocene aridification in central North America caused many temperate forest-associated vertebrates to split into eastern and western lineages. Such divisions can be cryptic when Holocene expansions have closed the gaps between once-disjunct ranges or when local morphological variation obscures deeper regional divergences. We investigated such cryptic divergence in the gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), the most basal extant canid in the world. We also investigated the phylogeography of this species and its diminutive relative, the island fox (U. littoralis), in California. The California Floristic Province was a significant source of Pleistocene diversification for a wide range of taxa and, we hypothesized, for the gray fox as well. Alternatively, gray foxes in California potentially reflected a recent Holocene expansion from further south. We sequenced mitochondrial DNA from 169 gray foxes from the southeastern and southwestern United States and 11 island foxes from three of the Channel Islands. We estimated a 1.3% sequence divergence in the cytochrome b gene between eastern and western foxes and used coalescent simulations to date the divergence to approximately 500,000 years before present (YBP), which is comparable to that between recognized sister species within the Canidae. Gray fox samples collected from throughout California exhibited high haplotype diversity, phylogeographic structure, and genetic signatures of a late-Holocene population decline. Bayesian skyline analysis also indicated an earlier population increase dating to the early Wisconsin glaciation (~70,000 YBP) and a root height extending back to the previous interglacial (~100,000 YBP). Together these findings support California’s role as a long-term Pleistocene refugium for western Urocyon. Lastly, based both on our results and re-interpretation of those of another study, we conclude that island foxes of the Channel Islands trace their origins to at least 3 distinct female founders from the mainland rather than to a single matriline, as previously suggested. PMID:26288066

Light from dark: A relictual troglobite reveals a broader ancestral distribution for kimulid harvestmen (Opiliones: Laniatores: Kimulidae) in South America

PubMed Central

Ceccarelli, F. Sara; Monte, Bruno G. O.; Proud, Daniel N.; DaSilva, Márcio Bernardino; Bichuette, Maria E.

2017-01-01

A new troglobitic harvestman, Relictopiolus galadriel gen. nov et sp. nov., is described from Olhos d’Água cave, Itacarambi, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Morphological characters, including male genitalia and exomorphology, suggest that this species belongs to the family Kimulidae, and it appears to share the greatest similarities with Tegipiolus pachypus. Bayesian inference analyses of a molecular dataset strongly support the inclusion of this species in Kimulidae and confirm the hypothesized sister-group relationship between R. galadriel and T. pachypus. A time calibrated phylogeny indicates that these sister-taxa diverged from a common ancestor approximately 40 Mya, during the Paleogene. The current range of Kimulidae illustrates a remarkable disjunct distribution, and leads us to hypothesize that the ancestral distribution of Kimulidae was once much more widespread across eastern Brazil. This may be attributed to the Eocene radiation associated with the warming (and humidifying) events in the Cenozoic when the best conditions for evergreen tropical vegetation in South America were established and followed by the extinction of kimulid epigean populations together with the retraction of rain forests during the Oligocene to Miocene cooling. The discovery of this relictual troglobite indicates that the Olhos d’Água cave was a stable refugium for this ancient lineage of kimulids and acted as a "museum" of biodiversity. Our findings, considered collectively with the diverse troglofauna of the Olhos d’Água cave, highlight it as one of the most important hotspots of troglobite diversity and endemism in the Neotropics. Given the ecological stresses on this habitat, the cavernicolous fauna are at risk of extinction and we emphasize the urgent need for appropriate conservation actions. Finally, we propose the transfer of Acanthominua, Euminua, Euminuoides and Pseudominua from Kimulidae to Zalmoxidae, resulting in two new synonymies and 13 new combinations. PMID:29190302

Light from dark: A relictual troglobite reveals a broader ancestral distribution for kimulid harvestmen (Opiliones: Laniatores: Kimulidae) in South America.

PubMed

Pérez-González, Abel; Ceccarelli, F Sara; Monte, Bruno G O; Proud, Daniel N; DaSilva, Márcio Bernardino; Bichuette, Maria E

2017-01-01

A new troglobitic harvestman, Relictopiolus galadriel gen. nov et sp. nov., is described from Olhos d'Água cave, Itacarambi, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Morphological characters, including male genitalia and exomorphology, suggest that this species belongs to the family Kimulidae, and it appears to share the greatest similarities with Tegipiolus pachypus. Bayesian inference analyses of a molecular dataset strongly support the inclusion of this species in Kimulidae and confirm the hypothesized sister-group relationship between R. galadriel and T. pachypus. A time calibrated phylogeny indicates that these sister-taxa diverged from a common ancestor approximately 40 Mya, during the Paleogene. The current range of Kimulidae illustrates a remarkable disjunct distribution, and leads us to hypothesize that the ancestral distribution of Kimulidae was once much more widespread across eastern Brazil. This may be attributed to the Eocene radiation associated with the warming (and humidifying) events in the Cenozoic when the best conditions for evergreen tropical vegetation in South America were established and followed by the extinction of kimulid epigean populations together with the retraction of rain forests during the Oligocene to Miocene cooling. The discovery of this relictual troglobite indicates that the Olhos d'Água cave was a stable refugium for this ancient lineage of kimulids and acted as a "museum" of biodiversity. Our findings, considered collectively with the diverse troglofauna of the Olhos d'Água cave, highlight it as one of the most important hotspots of troglobite diversity and endemism in the Neotropics. Given the ecological stresses on this habitat, the cavernicolous fauna are at risk of extinction and we emphasize the urgent need for appropriate conservation actions. Finally, we propose the transfer of Acanthominua, Euminua, Euminuoides and Pseudominua from Kimulidae to Zalmoxidae, resulting in two new synonymies and 13 new combinations.

Effective Population Size Dynamics and the Demographic Collapse of Bornean Orang-Utans

PubMed Central

Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W.; Van Schaik, Carel P.; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

2012-01-01

Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200–2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess their relative contributions. PMID:23166666

Comparative Phylogeographic Analyses Illustrate the Complex Evolutionary History of Threatened Cloud Forests of Northern Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Sosa, Victoria; Soltis, Douglas E.; Daza, Juan M.; González, Clementina; Soltis, Pamela S.; Gutiérrez-Rodríguez, Carla; de los Monteros, Alejandro Espinosa; Castoe, Todd A.; Bell, Charles; Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo

2013-01-01

Comparative phylogeography can elucidate the influence of historical events on current patterns of biodiversity and can identify patterns of co-vicariance among unrelated taxa that span the same geographic areas. Here we analyze temporal and spatial divergence patterns of cloud forest plant and animal species and relate them to the evolutionary history of naturally fragmented cloud forests–among the most threatened vegetation types in northern Mesoamerica. We used comparative phylogeographic analyses to identify patterns of co-vicariance in taxa that share geographic ranges across cloud forest habitats and to elucidate the influence of historical events on current patterns of biodiversity. We document temporal and spatial genetic divergence of 15 species (including seed plants, birds and rodents), and relate them to the evolutionary history of the naturally fragmented cloud forests. We used fossil-calibrated genealogies, coalescent-based divergence time inference, and estimates of gene flow to assess the permeability of putative barriers to gene flow. We also used the hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (HABC) method implemented in the program msBayes to test simultaneous versus non-simultaneous divergence of the cloud forest lineages. Our results show shared phylogeographic breaks that correspond to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Los Tuxtlas, and the Chiapas Central Depression, with the Isthmus representing the most frequently shared break among taxa. However, dating analyses suggest that the phylogeographic breaks corresponding to the Isthmus occurred at different times in different taxa. Current divergence patterns are therefore consistent with the hypothesis of broad vicariance across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec derived from different mechanisms operating at different times. This study, coupled with existing data on divergence cloud forest species, indicates that the evolutionary history of contemporary cloud forest lineages is complex and often lineage-specific, and thus difficult to capture in a simple conservation strategy. PMID:23409165

Linear models for airborne-laser-scanning-based operational forest inventory with small field sample size and highly correlated LiDAR data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Junttila, Virpi; Kauranne, Tuomo; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.

2015-01-01

Modern operational forest inventory often uses remotely sensed data that cover the whole inventory area to produce spatially explicit estimates of forest properties through statistical models. The data obtained by airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) correlate well with many forest inventory variables, such as the tree height, the timber volume, and the biomass. To construct an accurate model over thousands of hectares, LiDAR data must be supplemented with several hundred field sample measurements of forest inventory variables. This can be costly and time consuming. Different LiDAR-data-based and spatial-data-based sampling designs can reduce the number of field sample plots needed. However, problems arising from the features of the LiDAR data, such as a large number of predictors compared with the sample size (overfitting) or a strong correlation among predictors (multicollinearity), may decrease the accuracy and precision of the estimates and predictions. To overcome these problems, a Bayesian linear model with the singular value decomposition of predictors, combined with regularization, is proposed. The model performance in predicting different forest inventory variables is verified in ten inventory areas from two continents, where the number of field sample plots is reduced using different sampling designs. The results show that, with an appropriate field plot selection strategy and the proposed linear model, the total relative error of the predicted forest inventory variables is only 5%–15% larger using 50 field sample plots than the error of a linear model estimated with several hundred field sample plots when we sum up the error due to both the model noise variance and the model’s lack of fit.

A mid-Pleistocene rainforest corridor enabled synchronous invasions of the Atlantic Forest by Amazonian anole lizards.

PubMed

Prates, Ivan; Rivera, Danielle; Rodrigues, Miguel T; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-10-01

Shifts in the geographic distribution of habitats over time can promote dispersal and vicariance, thereby influencing large-scale biogeographic patterns and ecological processes. An example is that of transient corridors of suitable habitat across disjunct but ecologically similar regions, which have been associated with climate change over time. Such connections likely played a role in the assembly of tropical communities, especially within the highly diverse Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests of South America. Although these forests are presently separated by open and dry ecosystems, paleoclimatic and phylogenetic evidence suggest that they have been transiently connected in the past. However, little is known about the timing, magnitude and the distribution of former forest connections. We employ sequence data at multiple loci from three codistributed arboreal lizards (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii and Polychrus marmoratus) to infer the phylogenetic relationships among Amazonian and Atlantic Forest populations and to test alternative historical demographic scenarios of colonization and vicariance using coalescent simulations and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Data from the better-sampled Anolis species support colonization of the Atlantic Forest from eastern Amazonia. Hierarchical ABC indicates that the three species colonized the Atlantic Forest synchronously during the mid-Pleistocene. We find support of population bottlenecks associated with founder events in the two Anolis, but not in P. marmoratus, consistently with their distinct ecological tolerances. Our findings support that climatic fluctuations provided key opportunities for dispersal and forest colonization in eastern South America through the cessation of environmental barriers. Evidence of species-specific histories strengthens assertions that biological attributes play a role in responses to shared environmental change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pre-industrial baseline variation of upper midwestern forests in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Goring, S. J.; Williams, J. W.; Jackson, S. T.; McLachlan, J. S.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in Earth systems processes, yet we still do not understand how they respond to changes in climate. While it has been argued that terrestrial ecosystems were fairly stable (by Quaternary standards) in the millennia before major anthropogenic disruption, others have emphasized vegetation response to environmental variability during this time. These competing perspectives are not necessarily in conflict, but argue for a quantitative assessment of forest ecosystem variability over the last several millennia. Here we reconstruct maps of forest composition for the last two millenia, with uncertainty. To do this, we use a network of fossil pollen records - the most reliable paleoecological proxy for forest composition. We link the fossil pollen records to public land survey forest composition using a Bayesian hierarchical model which accounts for key processes including pollen production and dispersal. The model is calibrated using data from the pre-settlement time with the hope of minimizing anthropogenic impacts. Process parameters are estimated in the calibration phase, and are subsequently used in the prediction phase to generate spatially explicit maps of relative species composition across the upper Midwestern US over the last 2000 years, with robust uncertainty estimates. Estimates of forest composition and uncertainty show many previously noted vegetation shifts, three of which we discuss here. First, we see expansion of the hemlock range into western Wisconsin. Second, we see changes along the prairie-forest ecotone. Third, we see significant increases in elm at approximately 500 YBP in the region known as the Minnesota Big Woods. These changes are significant in both a statistical and ecological sense, but the scale of these changes is small relative to changes in the early holocene. Our novel spatio-temporal composition estimates will be used to improve the forecasting capabilities of ecosystem models.

A potential new proxy for paleo-atmospheric pO2 from soil carbonate-hosted fluid inclusions applied to pristine Chinle soils from the Petrified Forest 1A core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaller, M. F.; Pettitt, E.; Knobbe, T.

2017-12-01

Proxies for the concentration of O2 in the ancient atmosphere are scarce. We have developed a potential new proxy for ancient atmospheric O2 content based on soil carbonate-hosted fluid inclusions. Soils are in continuous atmospheric communication, and relatively static equilibration between soil gas and atmospheric gas during formation, such that a predictable amount of atmosphere infiltrates a soil. This atmosphere is trapped by inclusions during carbonate precipitation. Here we show that carbonate hosted fluid inclusions are faithful recorders of soil gas concentrations and isotope ratios, and specifically that soil O2 partial pressures can be derived from the total gas contents of these inclusions. Using carbonate nodules from a span of depths in a modern vertisol near Dallas, TX, as a test case, we employ an online crushing technique to liberate gases from soil carbonates into a small custom-built quadrupole mass spectrometer where all gases are measured in real time. We quantify the total oxygen content of the gas using a matrix-matched calibration, and define each species as a partial pressure of the total gas released from the nodule. Atmospheric pO2 is very simply derived from the soil-nodule partial pressures by accounting for the static productivity of the soil (using a small correction based on the CO2 concentration). When corrected for aqueous solubility using Henry's Law, these soil-carbonate hosted gas results reveal soil O2 concentrations that are comparable to modern-day dry atmosphere. Armed with this achievement in modern soils, and as a test on the applicability of the approach to ancient samples, we successfully apply the new proxy to nodules from the Late Triassic Chinle formation from the Petrified Forest National Park Core, taken as part of the Colorado Plateau Coring Project. Analysis of soil O2 from soil gas monitoring wells paired with measurements from contemporaneous soil carbonate nodules is needed to precisely calibrate the new proxy.

The Tetramerium lineage (Acanthaceae: Justicieae) does not support the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis for South American seasonally dry forests.

PubMed

Côrtes, Ana Luiza A; Rapini, Alessandro; Daniel, Thomas F

2015-06-01

The Tetramerium lineage (Acanthaceae) presents a striking ecological structuring in South America, with groups concentrated in moist forests or in seasonally dry forests. In this study, we investigate the circumscription and relationships of the South American genera as a basis for better understanding historic interactions between dry and moist biomes in the Neotropics. We dated the ancestral distribution of the Tetramerium lineage based on one nuclear and four plastid DNA regions. Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference analyses were performed for this study using 104 terminals. Phylogenetic divergences were dated using a relaxed molecular clock approach and ancestral distributions obtained from dispersal-vicariance analyses. The genera Pachystachys, Schaueria, and Thyrsacanthus are nonmonophyletic. A dry forest lineage dispersed from North America to South America and reached the southwestern part of the continent between the end of the Miocene and beginning of the Pleistocene. This period coincides with the segregation between Amazonian and Atlantic moist forests that established the geographic structure currently found in the group. The South American genera Pachystachys, Schaueria, and Thyrsacanthus need to be recircumscribed. The congruence among biogeographical events found for the Tetramerium lineage suggests that the dry forest centers currently dispersed throughout South America are relatively old remnants, probably isolated since the Neogene, much earlier than the Last Glacial Maximum postulated by the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis. In addition to exploring the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis, this research also informs evolution in a lineage with numerous geographically restricted and threatened species. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Demographic History of European Populations of Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

François, Olivier; Blum, Michael G. B.; Jakobsson, Mattias; Rosenberg, Noah A.

2008-01-01

The model plant species Arabidopsis thaliana is successful at colonizing land that has recently undergone human-mediated disturbance. To investigate the prehistoric spread of A. thaliana, we applied approximate Bayesian computation and explicit spatial modeling to 76 European accessions sequenced at 876 nuclear loci. We find evidence that a major migration wave occurred from east to west, affecting most of the sampled individuals. The longitudinal gradient appears to result from the plant having spread in Europe from the east ∼10,000 years ago, with a rate of westward spread of ∼0.9 km/year. This wave-of-advance model is consistent with a natural colonization from an eastern glacial refugium that overwhelmed ancient western lineages. However, the speed and time frame of the model also suggest that the migration of A. thaliana into Europe may have accompanied the spread of agriculture during the Neolithic transition. PMID:18483550

Genetic isolation of a now extinct population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus)

PubMed Central

Nichols, Courtney; Herman, Jerry; Gaggiotti, Oscar E; Dobney, Keith M; Parsons, Kim; Hoelzel, A. Rus

2007-01-01

A number of dolphin species, though highly mobile, show genetic structure among parapatric and sometimes sympatric populations. However, little is known about the temporal patterns of population structure for these species. Here, we apply Bayesian inference and data from ancient DNA to assess the structure and dynamics of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in the coastal waters of the UK. We show that regional population structure in UK waters is consistent with earlier studies suggesting local habitat dependence for this species in the Mediterranean Sea and North Atlantic. One genetically differentiated UK population went extinct at least 100 years ago and has not been replaced. The data indicate that this was a local extinction, and not a case of historical range shift or contraction. One possible interpretation is a declining metapopulation and conservation need for this species in the UK. PMID:17456457

Will Passive Protection Save Congo Forests?

PubMed

Galford, Gillian L; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S; Sonter, Laura J; Laporte, Nadine

2015-01-01

Central Africa's tropical forests are among the world's largest carbon reserves. Historically, they have experienced low rates of deforestation. Pressures to clear land are increasing due to development of infrastructure and livelihoods, foreign investment in agriculture, and shifting land use management, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The DRC contains the greatest area of intact African forests. These store approximately 22 billion tons of carbon in aboveground live biomass, yet only 10% are protected. Can the status quo of passive protection - forest management that is low or nonexistent - ensure the preservation of this forest and its carbon? We have developed the SimCongo model to simulate changes in land cover and land use based on theorized policy scenarios from 2010 to 2050. Three scenarios were examined: the first (Historical Trends) assumes passive forest protection; the next (Conservation) posits active protection of forests and activation of the national REDD+ action plan, and the last (Agricultural Development) assumes increased agricultural activities in forested land with concomitant increased deforestation. SimCongo is a cellular automata model based on Bayesian statistical methods tailored for the DRC, built with the Dinamica-EGO platform. The model is parameterized and validated with deforestation observations from the past and runs the scenarios from 2010 through 2050 with a yearly time step. We estimate the Historical Trends trajectory will result in average emissions of 139 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s, a 15% increase over current emissions. The Conservation scenario would result in 58% less clearing than Historical Trends and would conserve carbon-dense forest and woodland savanna areas. The Agricultural Development scenario leads to emissions of 212 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s. These scenarios are heuristic examples of policy's influence on forest conservation and carbon storage. Our results suggest that 1) passive protection of the DRC's forest and woodland savanna is insufficient to reduce deforestation; and 2): enactment of a REDD+ plan or similar conservation measure is needed to actively protect Congo forests, their unique ecology, and their important role in the global carbon cycle.

Will Passive Protection Save Congo Forests?

PubMed Central

Galford, Gillian L.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.; Sonter, Laura J.; Laporte, Nadine

2015-01-01

Central Africa’s tropical forests are among the world’s largest carbon reserves. Historically, they have experienced low rates of deforestation. Pressures to clear land are increasing due to development of infrastructure and livelihoods, foreign investment in agriculture, and shifting land use management, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The DRC contains the greatest area of intact African forests. These store approximately 22 billion tons of carbon in aboveground live biomass, yet only 10% are protected. Can the status quo of passive protection — forest management that is low or nonexistent — ensure the preservation of this forest and its carbon? We have developed the SimCongo model to simulate changes in land cover and land use based on theorized policy scenarios from 2010 to 2050. Three scenarios were examined: the first (Historical Trends) assumes passive forest protection; the next (Conservation) posits active protection of forests and activation of the national REDD+ action plan, and the last (Agricultural Development) assumes increased agricultural activities in forested land with concomitant increased deforestation. SimCongo is a cellular automata model based on Bayesian statistical methods tailored for the DRC, built with the Dinamica-EGO platform. The model is parameterized and validated with deforestation observations from the past and runs the scenarios from 2010 through 2050 with a yearly time step. We estimate the Historical Trends trajectory will result in average emissions of 139 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s, a 15% increase over current emissions. The Conservation scenario would result in 58% less clearing than Historical Trends and would conserve carbon-dense forest and woodland savanna areas. The Agricultural Development scenario leads to emissions of 212 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s. These scenarios are heuristic examples of policy’s influence on forest conservation and carbon storage. Our results suggest that 1) passive protection of the DRC’s forest and woodland savanna is insufficient to reduce deforestation; and 2): enactment of a REDD+ plan or similar conservation measure is needed to actively protect Congo forests, their unique ecology, and their important role in the global carbon cycle. PMID:26106897

Using Landsat and a Bayesian hard classifier to study forest change in the Salmon Creek Watershed area from 1972-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullis, David Stone

The Salmon Creek Watershed in Sonoma County, California, USA, is home to a variety of wildlife, and many of its residents are mindful of their place in its ecology. In the past half century, several of its native and rare species have become threatened, endangered, or extinct, most notably the once common Coho salmon and Chinook salmon. The cause of this decline is believed to be a combination of global climate change, local land use, and land cover change. More specifically, the clearing of forested land to create vineyards, as well as other agricultural and residential uses, has led to a decline in biodiversity and habitat structure. I studied sub-scenes of Landsat data from 1972 to 2013 for the Salmon Creek Watershed area to estimate forest cover over this period. I used a maximum likelihood hard classifier to determine forest area, a Mahalanobis distance soft classifier to show the software's uncertainty in classification, and manually digitized forest cover to test and compare results for the 2013 30 m image. Because the earliest images were lower spatial resolution, I also tested the effects of resolution on these statistics. The images before 1985 are at 60 m spatial resolution while the later images are at 30 m resolution. Each image was processed individually and the training data were based on knowledge of the area and a mosaic of aerial photography. Each sub-scene was classified into five categories: water, forest, pasture, vineyard/orchard, and developed/barren. The research shows a decline in forest area from 1972 to around the mid-1990s, then an increase in forest area from the mid-1990s to present. The forest statistics can be helpful for conservation and restoration purposes, while the study on resolution can be helpful for landscape analysis on many levels.

Modeling light use efficiency in a subtropical mangrove forest equipped with CO2 eddy covariance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barr, J.G.; Engel, V.; Fuentes, J.D.; Fuller, D.O.; Kwon, H.

2013-01-01

Despite the importance of mangrove ecosystems in the global carbon budget, the relationships between environmental drivers and carbon dynamics in these forests remain poorly understood. This limited understanding is partly a result of the challenges associated with in situ flux studies. Tower-based CO2 eddy covariance (EC) systems are installed in only a few mangrove forests worldwide, and the longest EC record from the Florida Everglades contains less than 9 years of observations. A primary goal of the present study was to develop a methodology to estimate canopy-scale photosynthetic light use efficiency in this forest. These tower-based observations represent a basis for associating CO2 fluxes with canopy light use properties, and thus provide the means for utilizing satellite-based reflectance data for larger scale investigations. We present a model for mangrove canopy light use efficiency utilizing the enhanced green vegetation index (EVI) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) that is capable of predicting changes in mangrove forest CO2 fluxes caused by a hurricane disturbance and changes in regional environmental conditions, including temperature and salinity. Model parameters are solved for in a Bayesian framework. The model structure requires estimates of ecosystem respiration (RE), and we present the first ever tower-based estimates of mangrove forest RE derived from nighttime CO2 fluxes. Our investigation is also the first to show the effects of salinity on mangrove forest CO2 uptake, which declines 5% per each 10 parts per thousand (ppt) increase in salinity. Light use efficiency in this forest declines with increasing daily photosynthetic active radiation, which is an important departure from the assumption of constant light use efficiency typically applied in satellite-driven models. The model developed here provides a framework for estimating CO2 uptake by these forests from reflectance data and information about environmental conditions.

Past climate changes, population dynamics and the origin of Bison in Europe.

PubMed

Massilani, Diyendo; Guimaraes, Silvia; Brugal, Jean-Philip; Bennett, E Andrew; Tokarska, Malgorzata; Arbogast, Rose-Marie; Baryshnikov, Gennady; Boeskorov, Gennady; Castel, Jean-Christophe; Davydov, Sergey; Madelaine, Stéphane; Putelat, Olivier; Spasskaya, Natalia N; Uerpmann, Hans-Peter; Grange, Thierry; Geigl, Eva-Maria

2016-10-21

Climatic and environmental fluctuations as well as anthropogenic pressure have led to the extinction of much of Europe's megafauna. The European bison or wisent (Bison bonasus), one of the last wild European large mammals, narrowly escaped extinction at the onset of the 20th century owing to hunting and habitat fragmentation. Little is known, however, about its origin, evolutionary history and population dynamics during the Pleistocene. Through ancient DNA analysis we show that the emblematic European bison has experienced several waves of population expansion, contraction, and extinction during the last 50,000 years in Europe, culminating in a major reduction of genetic diversity during the Holocene. Fifty-seven complete and partial ancient mitogenomes from throughout Europe, the Caucasus, and Siberia reveal that three populations of wisent (Bison bonasus) and steppe bison (B. priscus) alternately occupied Western Europe, correlating with climate-induced environmental changes. The Late Pleistocene European steppe bison originated from northern Eurasia, whereas the modern wisent population emerged from a refuge in the southern Caucasus after the last glacial maximum. A population overlap during a transition period is reflected in ca. 36,000-year-old paintings in the French Chauvet cave. Bayesian analyses of these complete ancient mitogenomes yielded new dates of the various branching events during the evolution of Bison and its radiation with Bos, which lead us to propose that the genetic affiliation between the wisent and cattle mitogenomes result from incomplete lineage sorting rather than post-speciation gene flow. The paleogenetic analysis of bison remains from the last 50,000 years reveals the influence of climate changes on the dynamics of the various bison populations in Europe, only one of which survived into the Holocene, where it experienced severe reductions in its genetic diversity. The time depth and geographical scope of this study enables us to propose temperate Western Europe as a suitable biotope for the wisent compatible with its reintroduction.

Cross-country transferability of multi-variable damage models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenaar, Dennis; Lüdtke, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Bouwer, Laurens

2017-04-01

Flood damage assessment is often done with simple damage curves based only on flood water depth. Additionally, damage models are often transferred in space and time, e.g. from region to region or from one flood event to another. Validation has shown that depth-damage curve estimates are associated with high uncertainties, particularly when applied in regions outside the area where the data for curve development was collected. Recently, progress has been made with multi-variable damage models created with data-mining techniques, i.e. Bayesian Networks and random forest. However, it is still unknown to what extent and under which conditions model transfers are possible and reliable. Model validations in different countries will provide valuable insights into the transferability of multi-variable damage models. In this study we compare multi-variable models developed on basis of flood damage datasets from Germany as well as from The Netherlands. Data from several German floods was collected using computer aided telephone interviews. Data from the 1993 Meuse flood in the Netherlands is available, based on compensations paid by the government. The Bayesian network and random forest based models are applied and validated in both countries on basis of the individual datasets. A major challenge was the harmonization of the variables between both datasets due to factors like differences in variable definitions, and regional and temporal differences in flood hazard and exposure characteristics. Results of model validations and comparisons in both countries are discussed, particularly in respect to encountered challenges and possible solutions for an improvement of model transferability.

Empirical Bayes estimation of proportions with application to cowbird parasitism rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Hahn, D.C.

1996-01-01

Bayesian models provide a structure for studying collections of parameters such as are considered in the investigation of communities, ecosystems, and landscapes. This structure allows for improved estimation of individual parameters, by considering them in the context of a group of related parameters. Individual estimates are differentially adjusted toward an overall mean, with the magnitude of their adjustment based on their precision. Consequently, Bayesian estimation allows for a more credible identification of extreme values in a collection of estimates. Bayesian models regard individual parameters as values sampled from a specified probability distribution, called a prior. The requirement that the prior be known is often regarded as an unattractive feature of Bayesian analysis and may be the reason why Bayesian analyses are not frequently applied in ecological studies. Empirical Bayes methods provide an alternative approach that incorporates the structural advantages of Bayesian models while requiring a less stringent specification of prior knowledge. Rather than requiring that the prior distribution be known, empirical Bayes methods require only that it be in a certain family of distributions, indexed by hyperparameters that can be estimated from the available data. This structure is of interest per se, in addition to its value in allowing for improved estimation of individual parameters; for example, hypotheses regarding the existence of distinct subgroups in a collection of parameters can be considered under the empirical Bayes framework by allowing the hyperparameters to vary among subgroups. Though empirical Bayes methods have been applied in a variety of contexts, they have received little attention in the ecological literature. We describe the empirical Bayes approach in application to estimation of proportions, using data obtained in a community-wide study of cowbird parasitism rates for illustration. Since observed proportions based on small sample sizes are heavily adjusted toward the mean, extreme values among empirical Bayes estimates identify those species for which there is the greatest evidence of extreme parasitism rates. Applying a subgroup analysis to our data on cowbird parasitism rates, we conclude that parasitism rates for Neotropical Migrants as a group are no greater than those of Resident/Short-distance Migrant species in this forest community. Our data and analyses demonstrate that the parasitism rates for certain Neotropical Migrant species are remarkably low (Wood Thrush and Rose-breasted Grosbeak) while those for others are remarkably high (Ovenbird and Red-eyed Vireo).

Forests, fields, and the edge of sustainability at the ancient Maya city of Tikal.

PubMed

Lentz, David L; Dunning, Nicholas P; Scarborough, Vernon L; Magee, Kevin S; Thompson, Kim M; Weaver, Eric; Carr, Christopher; Terry, Richard E; Islebe, Gerald; Tankersley, Kenneth B; Grazioso Sierra, Liwy; Jones, John G; Buttles, Palma; Valdez, Fred; Ramos Hernandez, Carmen E

2014-12-30

Tikal has long been viewed as one of the leading polities of the ancient Maya realm, yet how the city was able to maintain its substantial population in the midst of a tropical forest environment has been a topic of unresolved debate among researchers for decades. We present ecological, paleoethnobotanical, hydraulic, remote sensing, edaphic, and isotopic evidence that reveals how the Late Classic Maya at Tikal practiced intensive forms of agriculture (including irrigation, terrace construction, arboriculture, household gardens, and short fallow swidden) coupled with carefully controlled agroforestry and a complex system of water retention and redistribution. Empirical evidence is presented to demonstrate that this assiduously managed anthropogenic ecosystem of the Classic period Maya was a landscape optimized in a way that provided sustenance to a relatively large population in a preindustrial, low-density urban community. This landscape productivity optimization, however, came with a heavy cost of reduced environmental resiliency and a complete reliance on consistent annual rainfall. Recent speleothem data collected from regional caves showed that persistent episodes of unusually low rainfall were prevalent in the mid-9th century A.D., a time period that coincides strikingly with the abandonment of Tikal and the erection of its last dated monument in A.D. 869. The intensified resource management strategy used at Tikal-already operating at the landscape's carrying capacity-ceased to provide adequate food, fuel, and drinking water for the Late Classic populace in the face of extended periods of drought. As a result, social disorder and abandonment ensued.

Forests, fields, and the edge of sustainability at the ancient Maya city of Tikal

PubMed Central

Lentz, David L.; Dunning, Nicholas P.; Scarborough, Vernon L.; Magee, Kevin S.; Thompson, Kim M.; Weaver, Eric; Terry, Richard E.; Islebe, Gerald; Tankersley, Kenneth B.; Grazioso Sierra, Liwy; Jones, John G.; Buttles, Palma; Valdez, Fred; Ramos Hernandez, Carmen E.

2014-01-01

Tikal has long been viewed as one of the leading polities of the ancient Maya realm, yet how the city was able to maintain its substantial population in the midst of a tropical forest environment has been a topic of unresolved debate among researchers for decades. We present ecological, paleoethnobotanical, hydraulic, remote sensing, edaphic, and isotopic evidence that reveals how the Late Classic Maya at Tikal practiced intensive forms of agriculture (including irrigation, terrace construction, arboriculture, household gardens, and short fallow swidden) coupled with carefully controlled agroforestry and a complex system of water retention and redistribution. Empirical evidence is presented to demonstrate that this assiduously managed anthropogenic ecosystem of the Classic period Maya was a landscape optimized in a way that provided sustenance to a relatively large population in a preindustrial, low-density urban community. This landscape productivity optimization, however, came with a heavy cost of reduced environmental resiliency and a complete reliance on consistent annual rainfall. Recent speleothem data collected from regional caves showed that persistent episodes of unusually low rainfall were prevalent in the mid-9th century A.D., a time period that coincides strikingly with the abandonment of Tikal and the erection of its last dated monument in A.D. 869. The intensified resource management strategy used at Tikal—already operating at the landscape’s carrying capacity—ceased to provide adequate food, fuel, and drinking water for the Late Classic populace in the face of extended periods of drought. As a result, social disorder and abandonment ensued. PMID:25512500

Ireland (2007)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Between 51.5 and 55.5 degrees north latitude, Ireland could easily find itself buried in snow during the winter, but the island's average temperature in January is 7 degrees Celsius (45 degrees Fahrenheit). Ireland's mild climate results from the influence of the ocean current known as the North Atlantic Drift, which extends the warm waters of the Gulf Stream northward. The island enjoys mild temperatures in the summertime as well; extreme heat and cold are virtually unknown. Precipitation ranges from 78.5 centimeters (31 inches) around Dublin to 300 centimeters (118 inches) along the west coast. The mild, rainy climate is good for vegetation. In this image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite on May 2, 2007, Ireland overwhelms the viewer with hues of green, particularly in the interior, where the vegetation overlies lowlands of limestone--the remains of marine animals from an ancient sea. Little of the island's famous greenness results from trees, however. Seventeenth-century clearing removed most of the country's forests, and despite replanting efforts, Ireland is Europe's least forested country, after Iceland. The island's mild temperatures and humidity have instead blanketed the landscape in abundant grasses. Along Ireland's west coast, bare brown rocks emerge from the plant cover. In the north, the rocks are primarily ancient, crystalline rocks deposited well over a billion years ago. In the south, the rocks are primarily sandstone deposited roughly 350 million years ago. Evidence of urbanization dots the landscape, especially along the east coast. The metropolitan area of Dublin appears as an uneven patch of gray, mingled with dots of green. Human habitation is also evident around Londonderry, Belfast, and Cork.

Effect of forest clear-cutting on subtropical bryophyte communities in waterfalls, on dripping walls, and along streams.

PubMed

Patiño, Jairo; Hylander, Kristoffer; González-Mancebo, Juana M

2010-09-01

Forested freshwater ecosystems worldwide are threatened by a number of anthropogenic disturbances, such as water pollution and canalization. Transient or permanent deforestation can also be a serious threat to organisms in forested watersheds, but its effects on different types of freshwater systems has been little studied. We investigated lotic bryophyte communities on rock and soil in subtropical cloud laurel forests on La Gomera Island in the Canary Islands, Spain, and asked whether the response to forest clear-cutting varied among the communities associated with dripping walls, streams, and waterfalls. We compared three successional forest stages: ancient forests (> 250 years), young forests (20-50 years after clear-cutting), and open stands (5-15 years after clear-cutting). In each of 56 study sites we sampled general vegetation and substrate data in a 0.01-ha plot and took composition data of bryophyte species in 3 + 3 subplots of 1 x 1 m. The general pattern of decline in species richness and change in species composition after forest clear-cutting was stronger for streamside assemblages compared to assemblages on dripping walls and in waterfalls. The change in species numbers on rocks was larger than that on soils, because a guild of species growing on soil (but not on rocks) were favored by disturbance and thus increased in the disturbed sites. Most of the sensitive species could be classified as typical laurel forest species. Mosses were generally more tolerant to forest clear-cutting than were liverworts. We suggest that streamsides are more sensitive to disturbance than waterfalls and dripping walls because of a larger variation in microclimate before than after clear-cutting and because they are more easily invaded by early-successional species (both bryophytes and highly competitive vascular plants). We propose that special care should be taken along small streams within disturbed watersheds if bryophyte assemblages and threatened species should be protected. The susceptibility to anthropogenic pressures is probably rather high in ecosystems that do not regularly experience large-scale stand-replacing disturbances, especially on oceanic islands because of isolation and a small total habitat area for focal organisms.

The ancient Britons: groundwater fauna survived extreme climate change over tens of millions of years across NW Europe.

PubMed

McInerney, Caitríona E; Maurice, Louise; Robertson, Anne L; Knight, Lee R F D; Arnscheidt, Jörg; Venditti, Chris; Dooley, James S G; Mathers, Thomas; Matthijs, Severine; Eriksson, Karin; Proudlove, Graham S; Hänfling, Bernd

2014-03-01

Global climate changes during the Cenozoic (65.5-0 Ma) caused major biological range shifts and extinctions. In northern Europe, for example, a pattern of few endemics and the dominance of wide-ranging species is thought to have been determined by the Pleistocene (2.59-0.01 Ma) glaciations. This study, in contrast, reveals an ancient subsurface fauna endemic to Britain and Ireland. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach, we found that two species of stygobitic invertebrates (genus Niphargus) have not only survived the entire Pleistocene in refugia but have persisted for at least 19.5 million years. Other Niphargus species form distinct cryptic taxa that diverged from their nearest continental relative between 5.6 and 1.0 Ma. The study also reveals an unusual biogeographical pattern in the Niphargus genus. It originated in north-west Europe approximately 87 Ma and underwent a gradual range expansion. Phylogenetic diversity and species age are highest in north-west Europe, suggesting resilience to extreme climate change and strongly contrasting the patterns seen in surface fauna. However, species diversity is highest in south-east Europe, indicating that once the genus spread to these areas (approximately 25 Ma), geomorphological and climatic conditions enabled much higher diversification. Our study highlights that groundwater ecosystems provide an important contribution to biodiversity and offers insight into the interactions between biological and climatic processes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Inferring genealogical processes from patterns of Bronze-Age and modern DNA variation in Sardinia.

PubMed

Ghirotto, Silvia; Mona, Stefano; Benazzo, Andrea; Paparazzo, Francesco; Caramelli, David; Barbujani, Guido

2010-04-01

The ancient inhabitants of a region are often regarded as ancestral, and hence genetically related, to the modern dwellers (for instance, in studies of admixture), but so far, this assumption has not been tested empirically using ancient DNA data. We studied mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in Sardinia, across a time span of 2,500 years, comparing 23 Bronze-Age (nuragic) mtDNA sequences with those of 254 modern individuals from two regions, Ogliastra (a likely genetic isolate) and Gallura, and considering the possible impact of gene flow from mainland Italy. To understand the genealogical relationships between past and present populations, we developed seven explicit demographic models; we tested whether these models can account for the levels and patterns of genetic diversity in the data and which one does it best. Extensive simulation based on a serial coalescent algorithm allowed us to compare the posterior probability of each model and estimate the relevant evolutionary (mutation and migration rates) and demographic (effective population sizes, times since population splits) parameters, by approximate Bayesian computations. We then validated the analyses by investigating how well parameters estimated from the simulated data can reproduce the observed data set. We show that a direct genealogical continuity between Bronze-Age Sardinians and the current people of Ogliastra, but not Gallura, has a much higher probability than any alternative scenarios and that genetic diversity in Gallura evolved largely independently, owing in part to gene flow from the mainland.

Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siam, M. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-05-01

The natural interannual variability in the flow of Nile River had a significant impact on the ancient civilizations and cultures that flourished on the banks of the river. This is evident from stories in the Bible and Koran, and from the numerous Nilometers discovered near ancient temples. Here, we analyze extensive data sets collected during the 20th century and define four modes of natural variability in the flow of Nile River, identifying a new significant potential for improving predictability of floods and droughts. Previous studies have identified a significant teleconnection between the Nile flow and the Eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains about 25% of the interannual variability in the Nile flow. Here, we identify, for the first time, a region in the southern Indian Ocean with similarly strong teleconnection to the Nile flow. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the region (50-80° E and 25-35° S) explains 28% of the interannual variability in the Nile flow. During those years with anomalous SST conditions in both Oceans, we estimate that indices of the SSTs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans can collectively explain up to 84% of the interannual variability in the flow of Nile. Building on these findings, we use classical Bayesian theorem to develop a new hybrid forecasting algorithm that predicts the Nile flow based on global models predictions of indices of the SST in the Eastern Pacific and Southern Indian Oceans.

Impact of ancient charcoal kilns on chemical properties of several forest soils after 2 centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufey, Joseph; Hardy, Brieuc; Cornelis, Jean-Thomas

2014-05-01

Pyrogenic carbon plays a major role in soil biogeochemical processes and carbon budgets. Until the early 19th century, charcoal was the unique combustible used for iron metallurgy in Wallonia (Belgium). Traditional charcoal kilns were built directly in the forest: wood logs were piled into a mound and isolated from air oxygen with a covering of vegetation residues and soil before setting fire, inducing wood pyrolysis. Nowadays, ancient wood-charring platforms are still easy to identify on the forest floor as heightened domes of 10 meters in diameter characterized by a very dark topsoil horizon containing charcoal dust and fragments. Our goal is to assess the effects of wood charring at mound kiln sites on the properties of various forest soil types in Wallonia (Belgium), after two centuries. We sampled soil by horizon in 18 ancient kiln sites to 1.20 meter depth. The adjacent charcoal-unaffected soils were sampled the same way. We also collected recent charcoal fragments and topsoil samples from a still active charcoal kiln located close to Dole (France) to apprehend the evolution of soil properties over time. The pH, total carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content, available phosphorus (Pav), cation exchange capacity at pH 7 (CEC), exchangeable cations (Ca++, Mg++, K+, Na+) and loss on ignition at 550°C (LI550) were measured on each soil sample. We separated the soil profiles in 5 groups based on the nature of soil substrate and pedogenesis for interpretation of the results. We show that the total carbon stock is significantly increased at kiln sites due to higher C concentrations and greater depth of the organo-mineral horizon. The C/N ratio in charcoal-enriched soil horizons is significantly higher than in the neighboring reference soils but clearly attenuated compared to pure wood-charcoal fragments. The CEC is higher in the charcoal-enriched soil horizons, not only due to higher C concentrations but also to increased CEC by carbon unit at kiln sites. The high negative charge of charcoal results from surface oxidation processes over time. This charge varies over quite a wide range of values according to soil type, which might be explained by the nature of the charred wood. The surface soil horizons at kiln site show a completely desaturated exchange complex, comparable to the reference soils. However, the raise of the base saturation in the underlying horizons reflects the past liming effect of ashes produced by wood charring that has been completely erased from the topsoil in 200 years. Exchangeable K+ in the topsoil layers of kiln sites is very low, which can be related to an enhanced selectivity for Mg++ and Ca++ on the exchange complex of old charred material. Similarly, very little Pav is extracted from charcoal-enriched horizons, suggesting that Pav is either reduced in quantity or in availability. Our data clearly highlight the long-term effect of the accumulation of charred material on the evolution of soil chemical properties due to charcoal ageing and nutrient leaching.

A New Method for Predicting Patient Survivorship Using Efficient Bayesian Network Learning

PubMed Central

Jiang, Xia; Xue, Diyang; Brufsky, Adam; Khan, Seema; Neapolitan, Richard

2014-01-01

The purpose of this investigation is to develop and evaluate a new Bayesian network (BN)-based patient survivorship prediction method. The central hypothesis is that the method predicts patient survivorship well, while having the capability to handle high-dimensional data and be incorporated into a clinical decision support system (CDSS). We have developed EBMC_Survivorship (EBMC_S), which predicts survivorship for each year individually. EBMC_S is based on the EBMC BN algorithm, which has been shown to handle high-dimensional data. BNs have excellent architecture for decision support systems. In this study, we evaluate EBMC_S using the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) dataset, which concerns breast tumors. A 5-fold cross-validation study indicates that EMBC_S performs better than the Cox proportional hazard model and is comparable to the random survival forest method. We show that EBMC_S provides additional information such as sensitivity analyses, which covariates predict each year, and yearly areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs). We conclude that our investigation supports the central hypothesis. PMID:24558297

A new method for predicting patient survivorship using efficient bayesian network learning.

PubMed

Jiang, Xia; Xue, Diyang; Brufsky, Adam; Khan, Seema; Neapolitan, Richard

2014-01-01

The purpose of this investigation is to develop and evaluate a new Bayesian network (BN)-based patient survivorship prediction method. The central hypothesis is that the method predicts patient survivorship well, while having the capability to handle high-dimensional data and be incorporated into a clinical decision support system (CDSS). We have developed EBMC_Survivorship (EBMC_S), which predicts survivorship for each year individually. EBMC_S is based on the EBMC BN algorithm, which has been shown to handle high-dimensional data. BNs have excellent architecture for decision support systems. In this study, we evaluate EBMC_S using the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) dataset, which concerns breast tumors. A 5-fold cross-validation study indicates that EMBC_S performs better than the Cox proportional hazard model and is comparable to the random survival forest method. We show that EBMC_S provides additional information such as sensitivity analyses, which covariates predict each year, and yearly areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs). We conclude that our investigation supports the central hypothesis.

Genetic Structure and Diversity of the Endangered Fir Tree of Lebanon (Abies cilicica Carr.): Implications for Conservation

PubMed Central

Awad, Lara; Fady, Bruno; Khater, Carla; Roig, Anne; Cheddadi, Rachid

2014-01-01

The threatened conifer Abies cilicica currently persists in Lebanon in geographically isolated forest patches. The impact of demographic and evolutionary processes on population genetic diversity and structure were assessed using 10 nuclear microsatellite loci. All remnant 15 local populations revealed a low genetic variation but a high recent effective population size. FST-based measures of population genetic differentiation revealed a low spatial genetic structure, but Bayesian analysis of population structure identified a significant Northeast-Southwest population structure. Populations showed significant but weak isolation-by-distance, indicating non-equilibrium conditions between dispersal and genetic drift. Bayesian assignment tests detected an asymmetric Northeast-Southwest migration involving some long-distance dispersal events. We suggest that the persistence and Northeast-Southwest geographic structure of Abies cilicica in Lebanon is the result of at least two demographic processes during its recent evolutionary history: (1) recent migration to currently marginal populations and (2) local persistence through altitudinal shifts along a mountainous topography. These results might help us better understand the mechanisms involved in the species response to expected climate change. PMID:24587219

Hybridization and differential introgression associated with environmental shifts in a mistletoe species complex.

PubMed

Baena-Díaz, Fernanda; Ramírez-Barahona, Santiago; Ornelas, Juan Francisco

2018-04-03

Host specialization after host shifting is traditionally viewed as the pathway to speciation in parasitic plants. However, geographical and environmental changes can also influence parasite speciation, through hybridization processes. Here we investigated the impact of past climatic fluctuations, environment, and host shifts on the genetic structure and patterns of hybridization and gene flow between Psittacanthus calyculatus and P. schiedeanus, a Mesoamerican species complex. Using microsatellites (408 individuals), we document moderate genetic diversity but high genetic differentiation between widespread parental clusters, calyculatus in dry pine-oak forests and schiedeanus in cloud forests. Bayesian analyses identified a third cluster, with admixture between parental clusters in areas of xeric and tropical dry forests and high levels of migration rates following secondary contact. Coincidently host associations in these areas differ from those in areas of parental species, suggesting that past hybridization played a role in environmental and host shifts. Overall, the observed genetic and geographic patterns suggest that these Psittacanthus populations could have entered a distinct evolutionary pathway. The results provide evidence for highlights on the importance of the Pleistocene climate changes, habitat differences, and potential host shifts in the evolutionary history of Neotropical mistletoes.

Detection and Distribution of Natural Gaps in Tropical Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goulamoussène, Y.; Linguet, L.; Hérault, B.

2014-12-01

Forest management is important to assess biodiversity and ecological processes. Requirements for disturbance information have also been motivated by the scientific community. Therefore, understanding and monitoring the distribution frequencies of treefall gaps is relevant to better understanding and predicting the carbon budget in response to global change and land use change. In this work we characterize and quantify the frequency distribution of natural canopy gaps. We observe then interaction between environment variables and gap formation across tropical rainforest of the French Guiana region by using high resolution airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR). We mapped gaps with canopy model distribution on 40000 ha of forest. We used a Bayesian modelling framework to estimate and select useful covariate model parameters. Topographic variables are included in a model to predict gap size distribution. We discuss results from the interaction between environment and gap size distribution, mainly topographic indexes. The use of both airborne and space-based techniques has improved our ability to supply needed disturbance information. This work is an approach at plot scale. The use of satellite data will allow us to work at forest scale. The inclusion of climate variables in our model will let us assess the impact of global change on tropical rainforest.

Predicting Seagrass Occurrence in a Changing Climate Using Random Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, O.; Butler, K. A.

2017-12-01

Seagrasses are marine plants that can quickly sequester vast amounts of carbon (up to 100 times more and 12 times faster than tropical forests). In this work, we present an integrated GIS and machine learning approach to build a data-driven model of seagrass presence-absence. We outline a random forest approach that avoids the prevalence bias in many ecological presence-absence models. One of our goals is to predict global seagrass occurrence from a spatially limited training sample. In addition, we conduct a sensitivity study which investigates the vulnerability of seagrass to changing climate conditions. We integrate multiple data sources including fine-scale seagrass data from MarineCadastre.gov and the recently available globally extensive publicly available Ecological Marine Units (EMU) dataset. These data are used to train a model for seagrass occurrence along the U.S. coast. In situ oceans data are interpolated using Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) to produce globally extensive prediction variables. A neural network is used to estimate probable future values of prediction variables such as ocean temperature to assess the impact of a warming climate on seagrass occurrence. The proposed workflow can be generalized to many presence-absence models.

Towards AN Inventory for Archaeological Heritage Management in Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alef, Y.

2017-08-01

The vast amount of archaeological data and information that is systematically accumulated in the Israel Antiquities Authority database, has not yet been transformed into a tool for heritage management, i.e. accessible knowledge of the sites' cultural significance and risk assessment that is needed to support wise decision making regarding its future. As a response, a pilot project for developing an inventory for the archaeological heritage management was launched. A basic ESRI ArcGIS Online system was developed as a prototype, following the categories recommended in international standards for documentation. Five field surveys implementing the GIS system were conducted to examine different aspects and workflows: ancient synagogues in the Galilee, sites at risk, mosaics in Tel Shiqmona, the ancient settlement of Huqoq and sites included in The National Master Plan for Forests and Afforestation. The pilot project revealed the main gaps in knowledge and the critical faults in the working procedures. In spite of the systems' technological limitations, the results were convincing enough to promote a multidisciplinary discussion about the need for integration of significance and risk assessment in the working processes of the organization.

Combating desertification: building on traditional knowledge systems of the Thar Desert communities.

PubMed

Gaur, Mahesh K; Gaur, Hemlata

2004-12-01

The Thar Desert of western India is known for its rich and ancient culture system and traditions. The communities have long been part of the Thar Desert ecosystem and have evolved specific strategies to live in harmony with its hostile environment. This culture has provided several miracle plants of immense food and medicinal value to modern civilisation. The ancient rural livelihood knowledge system reflects time-tested techno-scientific knowledge with a proven track record of sustainability, especially during natural hazards like drought and famines. In addition, several of the traditional skills of local communities in arts and crafts, music and instruments have made modern man aware of the art and techniques of sustainably utilising local biological resources and preserving their biodiversity along with using waste products of the forests, without harming the desert ecosystem. Traditional cultural and socio-religious values are fast dwindling under the impact of materialistic approach, industrialisation and development. This paper endeavours to illustrate the need to assist and propagate indigenous rural livelihood systems rather than mindlessly replace or abandon them as a result of state bureaucracies.

Life in a temperate Polar sea: a unique taphonomic window on the structure of a Late Cretaceous Arctic marine ecosystem

PubMed Central

Chin, Karen; Bloch, John; Sweet, Arthur; Tweet, Justin; Eberle, Jaelyn; Cumbaa, Stephen; Witkowski, Jakub; Harwood, David

2008-01-01

As the earth faces a warming climate, the rock record reminds us that comparable climatic scenarios have occurred before. In the Late Cretaceous, Arctic marine organisms were not subject to frigid temperatures but still contended with seasonal extremes in photoperiod. Here, we describe an unusual fossil assemblage from Devon Island, Arctic Canada, that offers a snapshot of a ca 75 Myr ago marine palaeoecosystem adapted to such conditions. Thick siliceous biogenic sediments and glaucony sands reveal remarkably persistent high primary productivity along a high-latitude Late Cretaceous coastline. Abundant fossil faeces demonstrate that this planktonic bounty supported benthic invertebrates and large, possibly seasonal, vertebrates in short food chains. These ancient organisms filled trophic roles comparable to those of extant Arctic species, but there were fundamental differences in resource dynamics. Whereas most of the modern Arctic is oligotrophic and structured by resources from melting sea ice, we suggest that forested terrestrial landscapes helped support the ancient marine community through high levels of terrigenous organic input. PMID:18713718

Diversity of herbaceous plants and bacterial communities regulates soil resistome across forest biomes.

PubMed

Hu, Hang-Wei; Wang, Jun-Tao; Singh, Brajesh K; Liu, Yu-Rong; Chen, Yong-Liang; Zhang, Yu-Jing; He, Ji-Zheng

2018-04-24

Antibiotic resistance is ancient and prevalent in natural ecosystems and evolved long before the utilization of synthetic antibiotics started, but factors influencing the large-scale distribution patterns of natural antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) remain largely unknown. Here, a large-scale investigation over 4000 km was performed to profile soil ARGs, plant communities and bacterial communities from 300 quadrats across five forest biomes with minimal human impact. We detected diverse and abundant ARGs in forests, including over 160 genes conferring resistance to eight major categories of antibiotics. The diversity of ARGs was strongly and positively correlated with the diversity of bacteria, herbaceous plants and mobile genetic elements (MGEs). The ARG composition was strongly correlated with the taxonomic structure of bacteria and herbs. Consistent with this strong correlation, structural equation modelling demonstrated that the positive effects of bacterial and herb communities on ARG patterns were maintained even when simultaneously accounting for multiple drivers (climate, spatial predictors and edaphic factors). These findings suggest a paradigm that the interactions between aboveground and belowground communities shape the large-scale distribution of soil resistomes, providing new knowledge for tackling the emerging environmental antibiotic resistance. © 2018 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Avian Species Richness in Relation to Intensive Forest Management Practices in Early Seral Tree Plantations

PubMed Central

Jones, Jay E.; Kroll, Andrew J.; Giovanini, Jack; Duke, Steven D.; Ellis, Tana M.; Betts, Matthew G.

2012-01-01

Background Managers of landscapes dedicated to forest commodity production require information about how practices influence biological diversity. Individual species and communities may be threatened if management practices truncate or simplify forest age classes that are essential for reproduction and survival. For instance, the degradation and loss of complex diverse forest in young age classes have been associated with declines in forest-associated Neotropical migrant bird populations in the Pacific Northwest, USA. These declines may be exacerbated by intensive forest management practices that reduce hardwood and broadleaf shrub cover in order to promote growth of economically valuable tree species in plantations. Methodology and Principal Findings We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to evaluate relationships between avian species richness and vegetation variables that reflect stand management intensity (primarily via herbicide application) on 212 tree plantations in the Coast Range, Oregon, USA. Specifically, we estimated the influence of broadleaf hardwood vegetation cover, which is reduced through herbicide applications, on bird species richness and individual species occupancy. Our model accounted for imperfect detection. We used average predictive comparisons to quantify the degree of association between vegetation variables and species richness. Both conifer and hardwood cover were positively associated with total species richness, suggesting that these components of forest stand composition may be important predictors of alpha diversity. Estimates of species richness were 35–80% lower when imperfect detection was ignored (depending on covariate values), a result that has critical implications for previous efforts that have examined relationships between forest composition and species richness. Conclusion and Significance Our results revealed that individual and community responses were positively associated with both conifer and hardwood cover. In our system, patterns of bird community assembly appear to be associated with stand management strategies that retain or increase hardwood vegetation while simultaneously regenerating the conifer cover in commercial tree plantations. PMID:22905249

Decadal-scale ecosystem memory reveals interactive effects of drought and insect defoliation on boreal forest productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; D'Orangeville, L.; Dawson, A.; Kneeshaw, D.; Finley, A. O.

2017-12-01

Drought and insect defoliation have lasting impacts on the dynamics of the boreal forest. Impacts are expected to worsen under global climate change as hotter, drier conditions forecast for much of the boreal increase the frequency and severity of drought and defoliation events. Contemporary ecological theory predicts physiological feedbacks in tree responses to drought and defoliation amplify impacts potentially causing large-scale productivity losses and forest mortality. Quantifying the interactive impacts of drought and insect defoliation on regional forest health is difficult given delayed and persistent responses to disturbance events. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate forest growth responses to interactions between drought and insect defoliation by species and size class. Delayed and persistent responses to past drought and defoliation were quantified using empirical memory functions allowing for improved detection of interactions. The model was applied to tree-ring data from stands in Western (Alberta) and Eastern (Québec) regions of the Canadian boreal forest with different species compositions, disturbance regimes, and regional climates. Western stands experience chronic water deficit and forest tent caterpillar (FTC) defoliation; Eastern stands experience irregular water deficit and spruce budworm (SBW) defoliation. Ecosystem memory to past water deficit peaked in the year previous to growth and decayed to zero within 5 (West) to 8 (East) years; memory to past defoliation ranged from 8 (West) to 12 (East) years. The drier regional climate and faster FTC defoliation dynamics (compared to SBW) likely contribute to shorter ecosystem memory in the West. Drought and defoliation had the largest negative impact on large-diameter, host tree growth. Surprisingly, a positive interaction was observed between drought and defoliation for large-diameter, non-host trees likely due to reduced stand-level competition for water. Results highlight the temporal persistence of drought and defoliation stress on boreal forest growth dynamics and provide an empirical estimate of their interactive effects with explicit uncertainty.

From Amazonia to the Atlantic forest: molecular phylogeny of Phyzelaphryninae frogs reveals unexpected diversity and a striking biogeographic pattern emphasizing conservation challenges.

PubMed

Fouquet, Antoine; Loebmann, Daniel; Castroviejo-Fisher, Santiago; Padial, José M; Orrico, Victor G D; Lyra, Mariana L; Roberto, Igor Joventino; Kok, Philippe J R; Haddad, Célio F B; Rodrigues, Miguel T

2012-11-01

Documenting the Neotropical amphibian diversity has become a major challenge facing the threat of global climate change and the pace of environmental alteration. Recent molecular phylogenetic studies have revealed that the actual number of species in South American tropical forests is largely underestimated, but also that many lineages are millions of years old. The genera Phyzelaphryne (1 sp.) and Adelophryne (6 spp.), which compose the subfamily Phyzelaphryninae, include poorly documented, secretive, and minute frogs with an unusual distribution pattern that encompasses the biotic disjunction between Amazonia and the Atlantic forest. We generated >5.8 kb sequence data from six markers for all seven nominal species of the subfamily as well as for newly discovered populations in order to (1) test the monophyly of Phyzelaphryninae, Adelophryne and Phyzelaphryne, (2) estimate species diversity within the subfamily, and (3) investigate their historical biogeography and diversification. Phylogenetic reconstruction confirmed the monophyly of each group and revealed deep subdivisions within Adelophryne and Phyzelaphryne, with three major clades in Adelophryne located in northern Amazonia, northern Atlantic forest and southern Atlantic forest. Our results suggest that the actual number of species in Phyzelaphryninae is, at least, twice the currently recognized species diversity, with almost every geographically isolated population representing an anciently divergent candidate species. Such results highlight the challenges for conservation, especially in the northern Atlantic forest where it is still degraded at a fast pace. Molecular dating revealed that Phyzelaphryninae originated in Amazonia and dispersed during early Miocene to the Atlantic forest. The two Atlantic forest clades of Adelophryne started to diversify some 7 Ma minimum, while the northern Amazonian Adelophryne diversified much earlier, some 13 Ma minimum. This striking biogeographic pattern coincides with major events that have shaped the face of the South American continent, as we know it today. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Walker, Anthony P.

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results inmore » a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. Here, the result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.« less

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

DOE PAGES

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Walker, Anthony P.; ...

2017-09-27

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results inmore » a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. Here, the result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.« less

Molecular phylogeny, species limits, and biogeography of the Brazilian endemic lizard genus Enyalius (Squamata: Leiosauridae): an example of the historical relationship between Atlantic Forests and Amazonia.

PubMed

Rodrigues, Miguel Trefaut; Bertolotto, Carolina Elena Viña; Amaro, Renata Cecília; Yonenaga-Yassuda, Yatiyo; Freire, Eliza Maria Xavier; Pellegrino, Katia Cristina Machado

2014-12-01

The endemic Brazilian Enyalius encompasses a diverse group of forest lizards with most species restricted to the Atlantic Forest (AF). Their taxonomy is problematic due to extensive variation in color pattern and external morphology. We present the first phylogenetic hypothesis for the genus based on 2102 bp of the mtDNA (cyt-b, ND4, and 16S) and nuclear (c-mos) regions, uncovering all previously admitted taxa (9 spp). Different methods of tree reconstruction were explored with Urostrophus vautieri, Anisolepis grilli and A. longicauda as outgroups. The monophyly of Enyalius and its split into two deeply divergent clades (late Oligocene and early Miocene) is strongly supported. Clade A assembles most lineages restricted to south and southeastern Brazil, and within it Enyalius brasiliensis is polyphyletic; herein full species status of E. brasiliensis and E. boulengeri is resurrected. Clade B unites the Amazonian E. leechii as sister-group to a major clade containing E. bilineatus as sister-group to all remaining species from northeastern Brazil. We detected unrecognized diversity in several populations suggesting putative species. Biogeographical analyses indicate that Enyalius keeps fidelity to shadowed forests, with few cases of dispersal into open regions. Ancient dispersal into the Amazon from an AF ancestor may have occurred through northeastern Brazil. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mitogenomic perspectives on the origin and phylogeny of living amphibians.

PubMed

Zhang, Peng; Zhou, Hui; Chen, Yue-Qin; Liu, Yi-Fei; Qu, Liang-Hu

2005-06-01

Establishing the relationships among modern amphibians (lissamphibians) and their ancient relatives is necessary for our understanding of early tetrapod evolution. However, the phylogeny is still intractable because of the highly specialized anatomy and poor fossil record of lissamphibians. Paleobiologists are still not sure whether lissamphibians are monophyletic or polyphyletic, and which ancient group (temnospondyls or lepospondyls) is most closely related to them. In an attempt to address these problems, eight mitochondrial genomes of living amphibians were determined and compared with previously published amphibian sequences. A comprehensive molecular phylogenetic analysis of nucleotide sequences yields a highly resolved tree congruent with the traditional hypotheses (Batrachia). By using a molecular clock-independent approach for inferring dating information from molecular phylogenies, we present here the first molecular timescale for lissamphibian evolution, which suggests that lissamphibians first emerged about 330 million years ago. By observing the fit between molecular and fossil times, we suggest that the temnospondyl-origin hypothesis for lissamphibians is more credible than other hypotheses. Moreover, under this timescale, the potential geographic origins of the main living amphibian groups are discussed: (i) advanced frogs (neobatrachians) may possess an Africa-India origin; (ii) salamanders may have originated in east Asia; (iii) the tropic forest of the Triassic Pangaea may be the place of origin for the ancient caecilians. An accurate phylogeny with divergence times can be also helpful to direct the search for "missing" fossils, and can benefit comparative studies of amphibian evolution.

Atlantic forests to the all Americas: Biogeographical history and divergence times of Neotropical Ficus (Moraceae).

PubMed

Machado, Anderson Ferreira Pinto; Rønsted, Nina; Bruun-Lund, Sam; Pereira, Rodrigo Augusto Santinelo; Paganucci de Queiroz, Luciano

2018-05-01

Ficus (Moraceae) is well diversified in the Neotropics with two lineages inhabiting the wet forests of this region. The hemiepiphytes of section Americanae are the most diversified with c. 120 species, whereas section Pharmacosycea includes about 20 species mostly with a terrestrial habit. To reconstruct the biogeographical history and diversification of Ficus in the Americas, we produced a dated Bayesian phylogenetic hypothesis of Neotropical Ficus including two thirds of the species sequenced for five nuclear regions (At103, ETS, G3pdh, ITS/5.8S and Tpi). Ancestral range was estimated using all models available in Biogeobears and Binary State Speciation and Extinction analysis was used to evaluate the role of the initial habit and propagule size in diversification. The phylogenetic analyses resolved both Neotropical sections as monophyletic but the internal relationships between species in section Americanae remain unclear. Ficus started their diversification in the Neotropics between the Oligocene and Miocene. The genus experienced two bursts of diversification: in the middle Miocene and the Pliocene. Colonization events from the Amazon to adjacent areas coincide with the end of the Pebas system (10 Mya) and the connection of landmasses. Divergence of endemic species in the Atlantic forest is inferred to have happened after its isolation and the opening and consolidation of the Cerrado. Our results suggest a complex diversification in the Atlantic forest differing between postulated refuges and more instable areas in the South distribution of the forest. Finally the selection for initial hemiepiphytic habit and small to medium propagule size influenced the diversification and current distribution of the species at Neotropical forests marked by the historical instability and long-distance dispersal. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Caught in the act: Incipient speciation across a latitudinal gradient in a semifossorial mammal from Madagascar, the mole tenrec Oryzorictes hova (Tenrecidae).

PubMed

Everson, Kathryn M; Hildebrandt, Kyndall B P; Goodman, Steven M; Olson, Link E

2018-02-28

Madagascar is one of the world's foremost biodiversity hotspots, yet a large portion of its flora and fauna remains undescribed and the driving forces of in situ diversification are not well understood. Recent studies have identified a widespread, latitudinally structured phylogeographic pattern in Madagascar's humid-forest mammals, amphibians, reptiles, and insects. Several factors may be driving this pattern, namely biogeographic barriers (i.e., rivers or valleys) or past episodes of forest contraction and expansion. In this study, we describe the phylogeographic structure of the small, semifossorial mammal Oryzorictes hova, one of Madagascar's two species of mole tenrec, found throughout Madagascar's eastern humid forest belt, from high-elevation montane forest to low-elevation forests, as well as disturbed habitat such as rice fields. Using one mitochondrial locus, four nuclear loci, and 31 craniomandibular measurements, we identified three distinct populations of O. hova associated with the northern, central, and southern regions of the island. We found little evidence of gene flow among these populations, so we treated each population as a potential species. We validated species limits using two Bayesian methods: BP&P, employing only DNA sequence data, and iBPP using both DNA and morphological data, and we assessed whether these methods are susceptible to producing false positive errors. Molecular and morphological data support the recognition of each of the three populations of O. hova as distinct species, but formal species descriptions will require additional data from type specimens. This study illustrates the importance of using integrative datasets, multiple methodological approaches, and extensive geographic sampling for species delimitation and adds evidence for a widespread phylogeographic pattern in Madagascar's humid forest taxa. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

BitterSweetForest: A random forest based binary classifier to predict bitterness and sweetness of chemical compounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Priyanka; Preissner, Robert

2018-04-01

Taste of a chemical compounds present in food stimulates us to take in nutrients and avoid poisons. However, the perception of taste greatly depends on the genetic as well as evolutionary perspectives. The aim of this work was the development and validation of a machine learning model based on molecular fingerprints to discriminate between sweet and bitter taste of molecules. BitterSweetForest is the first open access model based on KNIME workflow that provides platform for prediction of bitter and sweet taste of chemical compounds using molecular fingerprints and Random Forest based classifier. The constructed model yielded an accuracy of 95% and an AUC of 0.98 in cross-validation. In independent test set, BitterSweetForest achieved an accuracy of 96 % and an AUC of 0.98 for bitter and sweet taste prediction. The constructed model was further applied to predict the bitter and sweet taste of natural compounds, approved drugs as well as on an acute toxicity compound data set. BitterSweetForest suggests 70% of the natural product space, as bitter and 10 % of the natural product space as sweet with confidence score of 0.60 and above. 77 % of the approved drug set was predicted as bitter and 2% as sweet with a confidence scores of 0.75 and above. Similarly, 75% of the total compounds from acute oral toxicity class were predicted only as bitter with a minimum confidence score of 0.75, revealing toxic compounds are mostly bitter. Furthermore, we applied a Bayesian based feature analysis method to discriminate the most occurring chemical features between sweet and bitter compounds from the feature space of a circular fingerprint.

BitterSweetForest: A Random Forest Based Binary Classifier to Predict Bitterness and Sweetness of Chemical Compounds

PubMed Central

Banerjee, Priyanka; Preissner, Robert

2018-01-01

Taste of a chemical compound present in food stimulates us to take in nutrients and avoid poisons. However, the perception of taste greatly depends on the genetic as well as evolutionary perspectives. The aim of this work was the development and validation of a machine learning model based on molecular fingerprints to discriminate between sweet and bitter taste of molecules. BitterSweetForest is the first open access model based on KNIME workflow that provides platform for prediction of bitter and sweet taste of chemical compounds using molecular fingerprints and Random Forest based classifier. The constructed model yielded an accuracy of 95% and an AUC of 0.98 in cross-validation. In independent test set, BitterSweetForest achieved an accuracy of 96% and an AUC of 0.98 for bitter and sweet taste prediction. The constructed model was further applied to predict the bitter and sweet taste of natural compounds, approved drugs as well as on an acute toxicity compound data set. BitterSweetForest suggests 70% of the natural product space, as bitter and 10% of the natural product space as sweet with confidence score of 0.60 and above. 77% of the approved drug set was predicted as bitter and 2% as sweet with a confidence score of 0.75 and above. Similarly, 75% of the total compounds from acute oral toxicity class were predicted only as bitter with a minimum confidence score of 0.75, revealing toxic compounds are mostly bitter. Furthermore, we applied a Bayesian based feature analysis method to discriminate the most occurring chemical features between sweet and bitter compounds using the feature space of a circular fingerprint. PMID:29696137

Phylogenetic analysis in Myrcia section Aulomyrcia and inferences on plant diversity in the Atlantic rainforest.

PubMed

Staggemeier, Vanessa Graziele; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Forest, Félix; Lucas, Eve

2015-04-01

Myrcia section Aulomyrcia includes ∼120 species that are endemic to the Neotropics and disjunctly distributed in the moist Amazon and Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. This paper presents the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group and this phylogeny is used as a basis to evaluate recent classification systems and to test alternative hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. Fifty-three taxa were sampled out of the 120 species currently recognized, plus 40 outgroup taxa, for one nuclear marker (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, trnL-trnF, trnQ-rpS16 and ndhF). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses. Additionally, a likelihood approach, 'geographic state speciation and extinction', was used to estimate region- dependent rates of speciation, extinction and dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable areas (refugia) and unstable areas. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Myrcia and Marlierea are polyphyletic, and the internal groupings recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Amazonian and north-eastern species and between north-eastern and south-eastern species. Lower extinction rates within glacial refugia suggest that these areas were important in maintaining diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important ecological questions for Myrcia s.l. within an evolutionary context, and supports the need to unite taxonomically the two traditional genera Myrcia and Marlierea in an expanded Myrcia s.l. Furthermore, this study offers valuable insights into the diversification of plant species in the highly impacted Atlantic forest of South America; evidence is presented that the lowest extinction rates are found inside refugia and that range expansion from unstable areas contributes to the highest levels of plant diversity in the Bahian refugium. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Role of Wildfire, Prescribed Fire, and Mountain Pine Beetle Infestations on the Population Dynamics of Black-Backed Woodpeckers in the Black Hills, South Dakota

PubMed Central

Rota, Christopher T.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Rumble, Mark A.; Lehman, Chad P.; Kesler, Dylan C.

2014-01-01

Wildfire and mountain pine beetle infestations are naturally occurring disturbances in western North American forests. Black-backed woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus) are emblematic of the role these disturbances play in creating wildlife habitat, since they are strongly associated with recently-killed forests. However, management practices aimed at reducing the economic impact of natural disturbances can result in habitat loss for this species. Although black-backed woodpeckers occupy habitats created by wildfire, prescribed fire, and mountain pine beetle infestations, the relative value of these habitats remains unknown. We studied habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probabilities and reproductive rates between April 2008 and August 2012 in the Black Hills, South Dakota. We estimated habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probability with Bayesian multi-state models and habitat-specific reproductive success with Bayesian nest survival models. We calculated asymptotic population growth rates from estimated demographic rates with matrix projection models. Adult and juvenile survival and nest success were highest in habitat created by summer wildfire, intermediate in MPB infestations, and lowest in habitat created by fall prescribed fire. Mean posterior distributions of population growth rates indicated growing populations in habitat created by summer wildfire and declining populations in fall prescribed fire and mountain pine beetle infestations. Our finding that population growth rates were positive only in habitat created by summer wildfire underscores the need to maintain early post-wildfire habitat across the landscape. The lower growth rates in fall prescribed fire and MPB infestations may be attributed to differences in predator communities and food resources relative to summer wildfire. PMID:24736502

Estimation of Coast-Wide Population Trends of Marbled Murrelets in Canada Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

PubMed Central

Schroeder, Bernard K.; Lindsay, David J.; Faust, Deborah A.

2015-01-01

Species at risk with secretive breeding behaviours, low densities, and wide geographic range pose a significant challenge to conservation actions because population trends are difficult to detect. Such is the case with the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), a seabird listed as ‘Threatened’ by the Species at Risk Act in Canada largely due to the loss of its old growth forest nesting habitat. We report the first estimates of population trend of Marbled Murrelets in Canada derived from a monitoring program that uses marine radar to detect birds as they enter forest watersheds during 923 dawn surveys at 58 radar monitoring stations within the six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions on coastal British Columbia, Canada, 1996–2013. Temporal trends in radar counts were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate modeling approach that controlled for variation in tilt of the radar unit and day of year, included year-specific deviations from the overall trend (‘year effects’), and allowed for trends to be estimated at three spatial scales. A negative overall trend of -1.6%/yr (95% credibility interval: -3.2%, 0.01%) indicated moderate evidence for a coast-wide decline, although trends varied strongly among the six conservation regions. Negative annual trends were detected in East Vancouver Island (-9%/yr) and South Mainland Coast (-3%/yr) Conservation Regions. Over a quarter of the year effects were significantly different from zero, and the estimated standard deviation in common-shared year effects between sites within each region was about 50% per year. This large common-shared interannual variation in counts may have been caused by regional movements of birds related to changes in marine conditions that affect the availability of prey. PMID:26258803

The role of wildfire, prescribed fire, and mountain pine beetle infestations on the population dynamics of black-backed woodpeckers in the black hills, South Dakota.

PubMed

Rota, Christopher T; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Rumble, Mark A; Lehman, Chad P; Kesler, Dylan C

2014-01-01

Wildfire and mountain pine beetle infestations are naturally occurring disturbances in western North American forests. Black-backed woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus) are emblematic of the role these disturbances play in creating wildlife habitat, since they are strongly associated with recently-killed forests. However, management practices aimed at reducing the economic impact of natural disturbances can result in habitat loss for this species. Although black-backed woodpeckers occupy habitats created by wildfire, prescribed fire, and mountain pine beetle infestations, the relative value of these habitats remains unknown. We studied habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probabilities and reproductive rates between April 2008 and August 2012 in the Black Hills, South Dakota. We estimated habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probability with Bayesian multi-state models and habitat-specific reproductive success with Bayesian nest survival models. We calculated asymptotic population growth rates from estimated demographic rates with matrix projection models. Adult and juvenile survival and nest success were highest in habitat created by summer wildfire, intermediate in MPB infestations, and lowest in habitat created by fall prescribed fire. Mean posterior distributions of population growth rates indicated growing populations in habitat created by summer wildfire and declining populations in fall prescribed fire and mountain pine beetle infestations. Our finding that population growth rates were positive only in habitat created by summer wildfire underscores the need to maintain early post-wildfire habitat across the landscape. The lower growth rates in fall prescribed fire and MPB infestations may be attributed to differences in predator communities and food resources relative to summer wildfire.

Bayesian optimization of the Community Land Model simulated biosphere-atmosphere exchange using CO 2 observations from a dense tower network and aircraft campaigns over Oregon

DOE PAGES

Schmidt, Andres; Law, Beverly E.; Göckede, Mathias; ...

2016-09-15

Here, the vast forests and natural areas of the Pacific Northwest comprise one of the most productive ecosystems in the northern hemisphere. The heterogeneous landscape of Oregon poses a particular challenge to ecosystem models. We present a framework using a scaling factor Bayesian inversion to improve the modeled atmosphere-biosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. Observations from 5 CO/CO 2 towers, eddy covariance towers, and airborne campaigns were used to constrain the Community Land Model CLM4.5 simulated terrestrial CO 2 exchange at a high spatial and temporal resolution (1/24°, 3-hourly). To balance aggregation errors and the degrees of freedom in the inversemore » modeling system, we applied an unsupervised clustering approach for the spatial structuring of our model domain. Data from flight campaigns were used to quantify the uncertainty introduced by the Lagrangian particle dispersion model that was applied for the inversions. The average annual statewide net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was increased by 32% to 29.7 TgC per year by assimilating the tropospheric mixing ratio data. The associated uncertainty was decreased by 28.4% to 29%, on average over the entire Oregon model domain with the lowest uncertainties of 11% in western Oregon. The largest differences between posterior and prior CO 2 fluxes were found for the Coast Range ecoregion of Oregon that also exhibits the highest availability of atmospheric observations and associated footprints. In this area, covered by highly productive Douglas-fir forest, the differences between the prior and posterior estimate of NEP averaged 3.84 TgC per year during the study period from 2012 through 2014.« less

Bayesian optimization of the Community Land Model simulated biosphere-atmosphere exchange using CO 2 observations from a dense tower network and aircraft campaigns over Oregon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidt, Andres; Law, Beverly E.; Göckede, Mathias

Here, the vast forests and natural areas of the Pacific Northwest comprise one of the most productive ecosystems in the northern hemisphere. The heterogeneous landscape of Oregon poses a particular challenge to ecosystem models. We present a framework using a scaling factor Bayesian inversion to improve the modeled atmosphere-biosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. Observations from 5 CO/CO 2 towers, eddy covariance towers, and airborne campaigns were used to constrain the Community Land Model CLM4.5 simulated terrestrial CO 2 exchange at a high spatial and temporal resolution (1/24°, 3-hourly). To balance aggregation errors and the degrees of freedom in the inversemore » modeling system, we applied an unsupervised clustering approach for the spatial structuring of our model domain. Data from flight campaigns were used to quantify the uncertainty introduced by the Lagrangian particle dispersion model that was applied for the inversions. The average annual statewide net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was increased by 32% to 29.7 TgC per year by assimilating the tropospheric mixing ratio data. The associated uncertainty was decreased by 28.4% to 29%, on average over the entire Oregon model domain with the lowest uncertainties of 11% in western Oregon. The largest differences between posterior and prior CO 2 fluxes were found for the Coast Range ecoregion of Oregon that also exhibits the highest availability of atmospheric observations and associated footprints. In this area, covered by highly productive Douglas-fir forest, the differences between the prior and posterior estimate of NEP averaged 3.84 TgC per year during the study period from 2012 through 2014.« less

A Dirichlet-Multinomial Bayes Classifier for Disease Diagnosis with Microbial Compositions.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang; Lin, Huaiying; Dong, Qunfeng

2017-01-01

Dysbiosis of microbial communities is associated with various human diseases, raising the possibility of using microbial compositions as biomarkers for disease diagnosis. We have developed a Bayes classifier by modeling microbial compositions with Dirichlet-multinomial distributions, which are widely used to model multicategorical count data with extra variation. The parameters of the Dirichlet-multinomial distributions are estimated from training microbiome data sets based on maximum likelihood. The posterior probability of a microbiome sample belonging to a disease or healthy category is calculated based on Bayes' theorem, using the likelihood values computed from the estimated Dirichlet-multinomial distribution, as well as a prior probability estimated from the training microbiome data set or previously published information on disease prevalence. When tested on real-world microbiome data sets, our method, called DMBC (for Dirichlet-multinomial Bayes classifier), shows better classification accuracy than the only existing Bayesian microbiome classifier based on a Dirichlet-multinomial mixture model and the popular random forest method. The advantage of DMBC is its built-in automatic feature selection, capable of identifying a subset of microbial taxa with the best classification accuracy between different classes of samples based on cross-validation. This unique ability enables DMBC to maintain and even improve its accuracy at modeling species-level taxa. The R package for DMBC is freely available at https://github.com/qunfengdong/DMBC. IMPORTANCE By incorporating prior information on disease prevalence, Bayes classifiers have the potential to estimate disease probability better than other common machine-learning methods. Thus, it is important to develop Bayes classifiers specifically tailored for microbiome data. Our method shows higher classification accuracy than the only existing Bayesian classifier and the popular random forest method, and thus provides an alternative option for using microbial compositions for disease diagnosis.

[Spatial characteristics analysis of Huizhou-Styled Village based on ideal ecosystem model and 3D landscape indices: A case in Chengkan, China].

PubMed

Yao, Meng Yuan; Yan, Shi Jiang; Wu, Yan Lan

2016-12-01

Huizhou-Styled Village is a typical representative of the traditional Chinese ancient villages. It preserves plentiful information of the regional culture and ecological connotation. The Huizhou-Style is the apotheosis of harmony between the Chinese ancient people and nature. The research and protection of Huizhou-Styled Village plays a very important role in fields of ecology, geography, architecture and esthetics. This paper took Chengkan Village of Anhui Province as an exa-mple, and proposed a new model of ideal ecosystem oriented in theories of Feng-shui and psychological field. The new method of characterizing 3D landscape index was introduced to explore the spatial patterns of Huizhou-Styled Village and the functionality of the composited landscape components in a quantitative way. The results indicated that, Chengkan Village showed a spatially composited pattern of "mountain-forest-village-river-forest". It formed an ideal settlement ring structure with human architecture in the center and natural landscape around in the horizontal and vertical horizons. The traditional method based on the projection distance caused the deviation of the landscape index, such as underestimating the area and distance of landscape patch. The 3D landscape index of average patch area was 6.7% higher than the 2D landscape index. The increasing rate ofarea proportion in 3D index was 1.0% higher than that of 2D index in forest lands. Area proportion of the other landscapes decreased, especially the artificial landscapes like construction and cropland landscapes. The area and perimeter metric were underestimated, whereas the shape metric and the diversity metric were overestimated. This caused the underestimation of the dominance of natural patches was underestimated and the overestimation of the dominance of artificial patches during the analysis of landscape pattern. The 3D landscape index showed that the natural elements and their combination in Chengkan Village ecosystem reflected better ecological function, the key elements and the composited landscape ecosystem preserved higher stability, connectivity and aggregation. The quantitative confirmation showed that the Huizhou-Styled Village represented by Chengkan Village is an ideal ecosystem.

Factors associated with succession of abandoned agricultural lands along the Lower Missouri River, U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, W.E.; Gallagher, M.; Young, N.; Rohweder, J.J.; Knutson, M.G.

2009-01-01

The 1993 flood of the Missouri River led to the abandonment of agriculture on considerable land in the floodplain. This abandonment led to a restoration opportunity for the U.S. Federal Government, purchasing those lands being sold by farmers. Restoration of this floodplain is complicated, however, by an imperfect understanding of its past environmental and vegetative conditions. We examined environmental conditions associated with the current placement of young forests and wet prairies as a guide to the potential successional trajectory for abandoned agricultural land subject to flooding. We used Bayesian mixed-effects logistic regression to examine the effects of flood frequency, soil drainage, distance from the main channel, and elevation on whether a site was in wet prairie or in forest. Study site was included as a random effect, controlling for site-specific differences not measured in our study. We found, after controlling for the effect of site, that early-successional forest sites were closer to the river and at a lower elevation but occurred on drier soils than wet prairie. In a regulated river such as the lower Missouri River, wet prairie sites are relatively isolated from the main channel compared to early-successional forest, despite occurring on relatively moister soils. The modeled results from this study may be used to predict the potential successional fate of the acquired agricultural lands, and along with information on wildlife assemblages associated with wet prairie and forest can be used to predict potential benefit of these acquisitions to wildlife conservation. ?? 2009 Society for Ecological Restoration International.

The role of historical barriers in the diversification processes in open vegetation formations during the Miocene/Pliocene using an ancient rodent lineage as a model.

PubMed

Nascimento, Fabrícia F; Lazar, Ana; Menezes, Albert N; Durans, Andressa da Matta; Moreira, Jânio C; Salazar-Bravo, Jorge; D'Andrea, Paulo S; Bonvicino, Cibele R

2013-01-01

The Neotropics harbors a high diversity of species and several hypotheses have been proposed to account for this pattern. However, while species of forested domains are frequently studied, less is known of species from open vegetation formations occupying, altogether, a larger area than the Amazon Forest. Here we evaluate the role of historical barriers and the riverine hypothesis in the speciation patterns of small mammals by analyzing an ancient rodent lineage (Thrichomys, Hystricomorpha). Phylogenetic and biogeographic analyses were carried out with mitochondrial and nuclear DNA markers to analyze the evolutionary relationships between Thrichomys lineages occurring in dry domains along both banks of the Rio São Francisco. This river is one of the longest of South America whose course and water flow have been modified by inland tectonic activities and climate changes. Molecular data showed a higher number of lineages than previously described. The T. inermis species complex with 2n = 26, FN = 48 was observed in both banks of the river showing a paraphyletic arrangement, suggesting that river crossing had occurred, from east to west. A similar pattern was also observed for the T. apereoides complex. Thrichomys speciation occurred in Late Miocene when the river followed a different course. The current geographic distribution of Thrichomys species and their phylogenetic relationships suggested the existence of frequent past connections between both banks in the middle section of the Rio São Francisco. The extensive palaeodune region found in this area has been identified as a centre of endemism of several vertebrate species and is likely to be a center of Thrichomys diversification.

The Role of Historical Barriers in the Diversification Processes in Open Vegetation Formations during the Miocene/Pliocene Using an Ancient Rodent Lineage as a Model

PubMed Central

Nascimento, Fabrícia F.; Lazar, Ana; Menezes, Albert N.; Durans, Andressa da Matta; Moreira, Jânio C.; Salazar-Bravo, Jorge; D′Andrea, Paulo S.; Bonvicino, Cibele R.

2013-01-01

The Neotropics harbors a high diversity of species and several hypotheses have been proposed to account for this pattern. However, while species of forested domains are frequently studied, less is known of species from open vegetation formations occupying, altogether, a larger area than the Amazon Forest. Here we evaluate the role of historical barriers and the riverine hypothesis in the speciation patterns of small mammals by analyzing an ancient rodent lineage (Thrichomys, Hystricomorpha). Phylogenetic and biogeographic analyses were carried out with mitochondrial and nuclear DNA markers to analyze the evolutionary relationships between Thrichomys lineages occurring in dry domains along both banks of the Rio São Francisco. This river is one of the longest of South America whose course and water flow have been modified by inland tectonic activities and climate changes. Molecular data showed a higher number of lineages than previously described. The T. inermis species complex with 2n = 26, FN = 48 was observed in both banks of the river showing a paraphyletic arrangement, suggesting that river crossing had occurred, from east to west. A similar pattern was also observed for the T. apereoides complex. Thrichomys speciation occurred in Late Miocene when the river followed a different course. The current geographic distribution of Thrichomys species and their phylogenetic relationships suggested the existence of frequent past connections between both banks in the middle section of the Rio São Francisco. The extensive palaeodune region found in this area has been identified as a centre of endemism of several vertebrate species and is likely to be a center of Thrichomys diversification. PMID:24349576

Estimating Amazonian rainforest stability and the likelihood for large-scale forest dieback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Jupp, Tim; Ostberg, Sebastian; Heinke, Jens; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

2010-05-01

Annually, tropical forests process approximately 18 Pg of carbon through respiration and photosynthesis - more than twice the rate of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions. Current climate change may be transforming this carbon sink into a carbon source by changing forest structure and dynamics. Increasing temperatures and potentially decreasing precipitation and thus prolonged drought stress may lead to increasing physiological stress and reduced productivity for trees. Resulting decreases in evapotranspiration and therefore convective precipitation could further accelerate drought conditions and destabilize the tropical ecosystem as a whole and lead to an 'Amazon forest dieback'. The projected direction and intensity of climate change vary widely within the region and between different scenarios from climate models (GCMs). In the scope of a World Bank-funded study, we assessed the 24 General Circulation Models (GCMs) evaluated in the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) with respect to their capability to reproduce present-day climate in the Amazon basin using a Bayesian approach. With this approach, greater weight is assigned to the models that simulate well the annual cycle of rainfall. We then use the resulting weightings to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes as simulated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJmL) to estimate the risk of potential Amazon rainforest dieback. Our results show contrasting changes in forest biomass throughout five regions of northern South America: If photosynthetic capacity and water use efficiency is enhanced by CO2, biomass increases across all five regions. However, if CO2-fertilisation is assumed to be absent or less important, then substantial dieback occurs in some scenarios and thus, the risk of forest dieback is considerably higher. Particularly affected are regions in the central Amazon basin. The range of potential biomass change arising from the weighting of rainfall patterns is smaller than the uncertainty arising from CO2-fertilisation effects, which highlights the importance of reducing the uncertainties in the direct effects of CO2 on tropical ecosystems. Strong biomass changes also imply changes in forest structure and thus, forest stability. Our results display shifts in forest composition from closed rainforest to more open forest or even shrubland. Our probability-based risk analysis could be used to advise regional forest protection.

[Application of biotope mapping model integrated with vegetation cover continuity attributes in urban biodiversity conservation].

PubMed

Gao, Tian; Qiu, Ling; Chen, Cun-gen

2010-09-01

Based on the biotope classification system with vegetation structure as the framework, a modified biotope mapping model integrated with vegetation cover continuity attributes was developed, and applied to the study of the greenbelts in Helsingborg in southern Sweden. An evaluation of the vegetation cover continuity in the greenbelts was carried out by the comparisons of the vascular plant species richness in long- and short-continuity forests, based on the identification of woodland continuity by using ancient woodland indicator species (AWIS). In the test greenbelts, long-continuity woodlands had more AWIS. Among the forests where the dominant trees were more than 30-year-old, the long-continuity ones had a higher biodiversity of vascular plants, compared with the short-continuity ones with the similar vegetation structure. The modified biotope mapping model integrated with the continuity features of vegetation cover could be an important tool in investigating urban biodiversity, and provide corresponding strategies for future urban biodiversity conservation.

The first finding of Asian black bear (Carnivora, Ursidae, Ursus (Euarctos) thibetanus G. Cuvier, 1823) in the Late Pleistocene of northern Eurasia.

PubMed

Kosintsev, P A; Tiunov, M P; Gimranov, D O; Panov, V S

2016-11-01

An M1 tooth of Asian black bear (Ursus (Euarctos) thibetanus G. Cuvier, 1823) was found in deposits of the Tetyukhinskaya cave (Middle Sikhote-Alin, 44°35'N, 135°36'E). This finding is the first reliable evidence of Asian black bear's presence in Pleistocene of Primorye. Its morphological and morphometric descriptions are given. The period of inhabitation of U. (E.) thibetanus determined based on the radiocarbon date obtained during the study of the tooth, is 39 874 ± 133 BP (NSK-850, UGAMS-21786), which corresponds to the middle of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) of Late Pleistocene. The composition of ancient theriofauna indicates the existence of wide variety of landscapes in Primorye in the middle of Late Pleistocene. A refugium of forest fauna, in which species of taiga, nemoral, and Central Asian mountain-forest theriocomplexes were present, was located in southern Primorye in Late Pleistocene.

Landscape Archeology: Remote Sensing Investigation of the Ancient Maya in the Peten Rainforest of Northern Guatemala

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, Thomas L.; Irwin, Daniel E.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Through the use of airborne and satellite imagery we are improving our ability to investigate ancient Maya settlement, subsistence, and landscape modification in this dense forest region. Today the area is threatened by encroaching settlement and deforestation. However, it was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared for unknown reasons in the 9th century AD. At the time of their collapse they had attained one of the highest population densities in human history. How the Maya were able to successfully manage water and feed this dense population is not well understood at this time. A NASA-funded project used remote sensing technology to investigate large seasonal swamps (bajos) that make up 40 percent of the landscape. Through the use of remote sensing, ancient Maya features such as sites, roadways, canals and water reservoirs have been detected and verified through ground reconnaissance. The results of this preliminary research cast new light on the adaptation of the ancient Maya to their environment. Microenvironmental variation within the wetlands was elucidated and the different vegetation associations identified in the satellite imagery. More than 70 new archeological sites within and at the edges of the bajo were mapped and tested. Modification of the landscape by the Maya in the form of dams and reservoirs in the Holmul River and its tributaries and possible drainage canals in bajos was demonstrated. The use of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM), one-meter IKONOS satellite imagery, as well as high resolution airborne STAR-3i radar imagery--2.5 meter backscatter/10 meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM)--are opening new possibilities for understanding how a civilization was able to survive for centuries upon a karat topographic landscape. This understanding is critical for the current population that is currently experiencing rapid population growth and destroying the landscape through nontraditional farming and grazing techniques, resulting in socioeconomic problems.

Mapping the Ancient Maya Landscape from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, Tom

2003-01-01

This project uses new satellite and airborne imagery in combination with remote sensing, GIS, and GPS technology to understand the dynamics of how the Maya successfully interacted with their karst topographic landscape for several centuries in the northern Peten region of Guatemala. The ancient Maya attained one of the greatest population densities in human history in the tropical forest of the Peten, Guatemala, and it was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared for unknown reasons around AD 800. How the Maya were able to successfully manage water and feed this dense population is not known at this time. However, a recent NASA-funded project was the first to investigate large seasonal swamps (bajos) that make up 40 percent of the landscape. Through the use of remote sensing, ancient Maya features such as cities, roadways, canals and water reservoirs have been detected and verified through ground reconnaissance. The results of this research cast new light on the adaptation of the ancient Maya to their environment. Micro-environmental variation within the wetlands was elucidated and the different vegetational associations identified in the satellite imagery. More than 70 new archeological sites within and at the edges of the bajo were mapped and tested. Modification of the landscape by the Maya in the form of dams and reservoirs in the Holmul River and its tributaries and possible drainage canals in bajos was demonstrated. The recent acquisition of one-meter IKONOS imagery and high resolution STAR-3i radar imagery (2.5m backscatter/ 10m DEM), opens new possibilities for understanding how a civilization was able to survive for centuries upon a karst topographic landscape and their human-induced effects upon the local climate. This understanding is critical for the current population that is presently experiencing rapid population growth and destroying the landscape through non-traditional farming and grazing techniques, resulting in socioeconomic problems.

Mapping The Ancient Maya Landscape From Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, Tom; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Peten region of northern Guatemala is one of the last places on earth where major archeological sites remain to be discovered. It was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared. Remote sensing technology is helping to locate and map ancient Maya sites that are threatened today by accelerating deforestation and looting. Thematic Mapper and IKONOS satellite and airborne Star3-I radar data, combined with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, are successfully detecting ancient Maya features such as cities, roadways, canals, and water reservoirs. Satellite imagery is also being used to map the bajos, which are seasonally flooded swamps that cover over 40% of the land surface. The use of bajos for farming has been a source of debate within the professional community for many years. But the recent detection and verification of cultural features within the bajo system by our research team are providing conclusive evidence that the ancient Maya had adapted well to wetland environments from the earliest times and utilized them until the time of the Maya collapse. The use of the bajos for farming is also an important resource for the future of the current inhabitants who are experiencing rapid population growth. Remote sensing imagery is also demonstrating that in the Preclassic period (600 BC- AD 250), the Maya had already achieved a high organizational level as evidenced by the construction of massive temples and an elaborate inter-connecting roadway system. Although they experienced several setbacks such as droughts and hurricanes, the Maya nevertheless managed the delicate forest ecosystem successfully for several centuries. However, around AD 800, something happened to the Maya to cause their rapid decline and eventual disappearance from the region. The evidence indicates that at this time there was increased climatic dryness, extensive deforestation, overpopulation, and widespread warfare. This raises a question that is relevant to the contemporary world-namely, how severe do internal stresses in a civilization have to become before relatively minor climate shifts can trigger a widespread cultural collapse?

Confronting a Process-based Model of Temperate Tree Transpiration with Data from Forests in Central Panama Exposed to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewers, B. E.; Bretfeld, M.; Millar, D.; Hall, J. S.; Beverly, D.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.; Mackay, D. S.

2016-12-01

Process-based models of tree impacts on the hydrologic cycle must include not only plant hydraulic limitations but also photosynthetic controls because plants lose water to gain carbon. The Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) is one such model. TREES includes a Bayesian model-data fusion approach that provides rigorous tests of patterns in tree transpiration data against biophysical processes in the model. TREES has been extensively tested against many temperate tree data sets including those experiencing severe and lethal drought. We test TREES against data from sap flow-scaled transpiration in 76 tropical trees (representing 42 different species) in secondary forests of three different ages (8, 25, and 80+ years) located in the Panama Canal Watershed. These data were collected during the third driest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on record in Panama during 2015/2016. Tree transpiration response to vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation was the same in the two older forests, but showed an additional response to limited soil moisture in the youngest forest. Volumetric water content at 30 and 50 cm depths was 8% lower in the 8 year old forest than in the 80+ year old forest. TREES could not simulate this difference in soil moisture without increasing simulated root area. TREES simulations were improved by including light response curves of leaf photosynthesis, root vulnerability to cavitation and canopy position impacts on light. TREES was able to simulate the anisohydric (loose stomatal regulation of leaf water potential) and isohydric (tight stomatal regulation) of the 73 trees species a priori indicating that species level information is not required. Analyses of posterior probability distributions indicates TREES model predictions of individual tree transpiration would likely be improved with more detailed root and soil moisture in all forest ages data with the most improvement likely in the 8 year old forest. Our results suggest that a biophysical tree transpiration model developed in temperate forests can be applied to the tropics and could be used to improve predictions of evapotranspiration from changing land cover in tropical hydrology models.

The Importance of Temporal and Spatial Vegetation Structure Information in Biotope Mapping Schemes: A Case Study in Helsingborg, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tian; Qiu, Ling; Hammer, Mårten; Gunnarsson, Allan

2012-02-01

Temporal and spatial vegetation structure has impact on biodiversity qualities. Yet, current schemes of biotope mapping do only to a limited extend incorporate these factors in the mapping. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the application of a modified biotope mapping scheme that includes temporal and spatial vegetation structure. A refined scheme was developed based on a biotope classification, and applied to a green structure system in Helsingborg city in southern Sweden. It includes four parameters of vegetation structure: continuity of forest cover, age of dominant trees, horizontal structure, and vertical structure. The major green structure sites were determined by interpretation of panchromatic aerial photographs assisted with a field survey. A set of biotope maps was constructed on the basis of each level of modified classification. An evaluation of the scheme included two aspects in particular: comparison of species richness between long-continuity and short-continuity forests based on identification of woodland continuity using ancient woodland indicators (AWI) species and related historical documents, and spatial distribution of animals in the green space in relation to vegetation structure. The results indicate that (1) the relationship between forest continuity: according to verification of historical documents, the richness of AWI species was higher in long-continuity forests; Simpson's diversity was significantly different between long- and short-continuity forests; the total species richness and Shannon's diversity were much higher in long-continuity forests shown a very significant difference. (2) The spatial vegetation structure and age of stands influence the richness and abundance of the avian fauna and rabbits, and distance to the nearest tree and shrub was a strong determinant of presence for these animal groups. It is concluded that continuity of forest cover, age of dominant trees, horizontal and vertical structures of vegetation should now be included in urban biotope classifications.

Divergent evolutionary processes associated with colonization of offshore islands.

PubMed

Martínková, Natália; Barnett, Ross; Cucchi, Thomas; Struchen, Rahel; Pascal, Marine; Pascal, Michel; Fischer, Martin C; Higham, Thomas; Brace, Selina; Ho, Simon Y W; Quéré, Jean-Pierre; O'Higgins, Paul; Excoffier, Laurent; Heckel, Gerald; Hoelzel, A Rus; Dobney, Keith M; Searle, Jeremy B

2013-10-01

Oceanic islands have been a test ground for evolutionary theory, but here, we focus on the possibilities for evolutionary study created by offshore islands. These can be colonized through various means and by a wide range of species, including those with low dispersal capabilities. We use morphology, modern and ancient sequences of cytochrome b (cytb) and microsatellite genotypes to examine colonization history and evolutionary change associated with occupation of the Orkney archipelago by the common vole (Microtus arvalis), a species found in continental Europe but not in Britain. Among possible colonization scenarios, our results are most consistent with human introduction at least 5100 bp (confirmed by radiocarbon dating). We used approximate Bayesian computation of population history to infer the coast of Belgium as the possible source and estimated the evolutionary timescale using a Bayesian coalescent approach. We showed substantial morphological divergence of the island populations, including a size increase presumably driven by selection and reduced microsatellite variation likely reflecting founder events and genetic drift. More surprisingly, our results suggest that a recent and widespread cytb replacement event in the continental source area purged cytb variation there, whereas the ancestral diversity is largely retained in the colonized islands as a genetic 'ark'. The replacement event in the continental M. arvalis was probably triggered by anthropogenic causes (land-use change). Our studies illustrate that small offshore islands can act as field laboratories for studying various evolutionary processes over relatively short timescales, informing about the mainland source area as well as the island. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Deep phylogeographic divergence and cytonuclear discordance in the grasshopper Oedaleus decorus.

PubMed

Kindler, Eveline; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Heckel, Gerald

2012-11-01

The grasshopper Oedaleus decorus is a thermophilic insect with a large, mostly south-Palaearctic distribution range, stretching from the Mediterranean regions in Europe to Central-Asia and China. In this study, we analyzed the extent of phylogenetic divergence and the recent evolutionary history of the species based on 274 specimens from 26 localities across the distribution range in Europe. Phylogenetic relationships were determined using sequences of two mitochondrial loci (ctr, ND2) with neighbour-joining and Bayesian methods. Additionally, genetic differentiation was analyzed based on mitochondrial DNA and 11 microsatellite markers using F-statistics, model-free multivariate and model-based Bayesian clustering approaches. Phylogenetic analyses detected consistently two highly divergent, allopatrically distributed lineages within O. decorus. The divergence among these Western and Eastern lineages meeting in the region of the Alps was similar to the divergence of each lineage to the sister species O. asiaticus. Genetic differentiation for ctr was extremely high between Western and Eastern grasshopper populations (F(ct)=0.95). Microsatellite markers detected much lower but nevertheless very significant genetic structure among population samples. The nuclear data also demonstrated a case of cytonuclear discordance because the affiliation with mitochondrial lineages was incongruent in Northern Italy. Taken together these results provide evidence of an ancient separation within Oedaleus and either historical introgression of mtDNA among lineages and/or ongoing sex-specific gene flow in this grasshopper. Our study stresses the importance of multilocus approaches for unravelling the history and status of taxa of uncertain evolutionary divergence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change and the spread of vector-borne diseases: using approximate Bayesian computation to compare invasion scenarios for the bluetongue virus vector Culicoides imicola in Italy.

PubMed

Mardulyn, Patrick; Goffredo, Maria; Conte, Annamaria; Hendrickx, Guy; Meiswinkel, Rudolf; Balenghien, Thomas; Sghaier, Soufien; Lohr, Youssef; Gilbert, Marius

2013-05-01

Bluetongue (BT) is a commonly cited example of a disease with a distribution believed to have recently expanded in response to global warming. The BT virus is transmitted to ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides, and it has been hypothesized that the emergence of BT in Mediterranean Europe during the last two decades is a consequence of the recent colonization of the region by Culicoides imicola and linked to climate change. To better understand the mechanism responsible for the northward spread of BT, we tested the hypothesis of a recent colonization of Italy by C. imicola, by obtaining samples from more than 60 localities across Italy, Corsica, Southern France, and Northern Africa (the hypothesized source point for the recent invasion of C. imicola), and by genotyping them with 10 newly identified microsatellite loci. The patterns of genetic variation within and among the sampled populations were characterized and used in a rigorous approximate Bayesian computation framework to compare three competing historical hypotheses related to the arrival and establishment of C. imicola in Italy. The hypothesis of an ancient presence of the insect vector was strongly favoured by this analysis, with an associated P ≥ 99%, suggesting that causes other than the northward range expansion of C. imicola may have supported the emergence of BT in southern Europe. Overall, this study illustrates the potential of molecular genetic markers for exploring the assumed link between climate change and the spread of diseases. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Molecular insights into the historic demography of bowhead whales: understanding the evolutionary basis of contemporary management practices

PubMed Central

Phillips, C D; Hoffman, J I; George, J C; Suydam, R S; Huebinger, R M; Patton, J C; Bickham, J W

2013-01-01

Patterns of genetic variation observed within species reflect evolutionary histories that include signatures of past demography. Understanding the demographic component of species' history is fundamental to informed management because changes in effective population size affect response to environmental change and evolvability, the strength of genetic drift, and maintenance of genetic variability. Species experiencing anthropogenic population reductions provide valuable case studies for understanding the genetic response to demographic change because historic changes in the census size are often well documented. A classic example is the bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, which experienced dramatic population depletion due to commercial whaling in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Consequently, we analyzed a large multi-marker dataset of bowhead whales using a variety of analytical methods, including extended Bayesian skyline analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, to characterize genetic signatures of both ancient and contemporary demographic histories. No genetic signature of recent population depletion was recovered through any analysis incorporating realistic mutation assumptions, probably due to the combined influences of long generation time, short bottleneck duration, and the magnitude of population depletion. In contrast, a robust signal of population expansion was detected around 70,000 years ago, followed by a population decline around 15,000 years ago. The timing of these events coincides to a historic glacial period and the onset of warming at the end of the last glacial maximum, respectively. By implication, climate driven long-term variation in Arctic Ocean productivity, rather than recent anthropogenic disturbance, appears to have been the primary driver of historic bowhead whale demography. PMID:23403722

Ancient DNA analyses exclude humans as the driving force behind late Pleistocene musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) population dynamics

PubMed Central

Campos, Paula F.; Willerslev, Eske; Sher, Andrei; Orlando, Ludovic; Axelsson, Erik; Tikhonov, Alexei; Aaris-Sørensen, Kim; Greenwood, Alex D.; Kahlke, Ralf-Dietrich; Kosintsev, Pavel; Krakhmalnaya, Tatiana; Kuznetsova, Tatyana; Lemey, Philippe; MacPhee, Ross; Norris, Christopher A.; Shepherd, Kieran; Suchard, Marc A.; Zazula, Grant D.; Shapiro, Beth; Gilbert, M. Thomas P.

2010-01-01

The causes of the late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions are poorly understood. Different lines of evidence point to climate change, the arrival of humans, or a combination of these events as the trigger. Although many species went extinct, others, such as caribou and bison, survived to the present. The musk ox has an intermediate story: relatively abundant during the Pleistocene, it is now restricted to Greenland and the Arctic Archipelago. In this study, we use ancient DNA sequences, temporally unbiased summary statistics, and Bayesian analytical techniques to infer musk ox population dynamics throughout the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Our results reveal that musk ox genetic diversity was much higher during the Pleistocene than at present, and has undergone several expansions and contractions over the past 60,000 years. Northeast Siberia was of key importance, as it was the geographic origin of all samples studied and held a large diverse population until local extinction at ≈45,000 radiocarbon years before present (14C YBP). Subsequently, musk ox genetic diversity reincreased at ca. 30,000 14C YBP, recontracted at ca. 18,000 14C YBP, and finally recovered in the middle Holocene. The arrival of humans into relevant areas of the musk ox range did not affect their mitochondrial diversity, and both musk ox and humans expanded into Greenland concomitantly. Thus, their population dynamics are better explained by a nonanthropogenic cause (for example, environmental change), a hypothesis supported by historic observations on the sensitivity of the species to both climatic warming and fluctuations. PMID:20212118

Proterozoic Milankovitch cycles and the history of the solar system.

PubMed

Meyers, Stephen R; Malinverno, Alberto

2018-06-19

The geologic record of Milankovitch climate cycles provides a rich conceptual and temporal framework for evaluating Earth system evolution, bestowing a sharp lens through which to view our planet's history. However, the utility of these cycles for constraining the early Earth system is hindered by seemingly insurmountable uncertainties in our knowledge of solar system behavior (including Earth-Moon history), and poor temporal control for validation of cycle periods (e.g., from radioisotopic dates). Here we address these problems using a Bayesian inversion approach to quantitatively link astronomical theory with geologic observation, allowing a reconstruction of Proterozoic astronomical cycles, fundamental frequencies of the solar system, the precession constant, and the underlying geologic timescale, directly from stratigraphic data. Application of the approach to 1.4-billion-year-old rhythmites indicates a precession constant of 85.79 ± 2.72 arcsec/year (2σ), an Earth-Moon distance of 340,900 ± 2,600 km (2σ), and length of day of 18.68 ± 0.25 hours (2σ), with dominant climatic precession cycles of ∼14 ky and eccentricity cycles of ∼131 ky. The results confirm reduced tidal dissipation in the Proterozoic. A complementary analysis of Eocene rhythmites (∼55 Ma) illustrates how the approach offers a means to map out ancient solar system behavior and Earth-Moon history using the geologic archive. The method also provides robust quantitative uncertainties on the eccentricity and climatic precession periods, and derived astronomical timescales. As a consequence, the temporal resolution of ancient Earth system processes is enhanced, and our knowledge of early solar system dynamics is greatly improved.

Phylogenetic analysis of Pasteuria penetrans by use of multiple genetic loci.

PubMed

Charles, Lauren; Carbone, Ignazio; Davies, Keith G; Bird, David; Burke, Mark; Kerry, Brian R; Opperman, Charles H

2005-08-01

Pasteuria penetrans is a gram-positive, endospore-forming eubacterium that apparently is a member of the Bacillus-Clostridium clade. It is an obligate parasite of root knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.) and preferentially grows on the developing ovaries, inhibiting reproduction. Root knot nematodes are devastating root pests of economically important crop plants and are difficult to control. Consequently, P. penetrans has long been recognized as a potential biocontrol agent for root knot nematodes, but the fastidious life cycle and the obligate nature of parasitism have inhibited progress on mass culture and deployment. We are currently sequencing the genome of the Pasteuria bacterium and have performed amino acid level analyses of 33 bacterial species (including P. penetrans) using concatenation of 40 housekeeping genes, with and without insertions/deletions (indels) removed, and using each gene individually. By application of maximum-likelihood, maximum-parsimony, and Bayesian methods to the resulting data sets, P. penetrans was found to cluster tightly, with a high level of confidence, in the Bacillus class of the gram-positive, low-G+C-content eubacteria. Strikingly, our analyses identified P. penetrans as ancestral to Bacillus spp. Additionally, all analyses revealed that P. penetrans is surprisingly more closely related to the saprophytic extremophile Bacillus haladurans and Bacillus subtilis than to the pathogenic species Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus cereus. Collectively, these findings strongly imply that P. penetrans is an ancient member of the Bacillus group. We suggest that P. penetrans may have evolved from an ancient symbiotic bacterial associate of nematodes, possibly as the root knot nematode evolved to be a highly specialized parasite of plants.

Uncertainty in the Timing of Origin of Animals and the Limits of Precision in Molecular Timescales

PubMed Central

dos Reis, Mario; Thawornwattana, Yuttapong; Angelis, Konstantinos; Telford, Maximilian J.; Donoghue, Philip C.J.; Yang, Ziheng

2015-01-01

Summary The timing of divergences among metazoan lineages is integral to understanding the processes of animal evolution, placing the biological events of species divergences into the correct geological timeframe. Recent fossil discoveries and molecular clock dating studies have suggested a divergence of bilaterian phyla >100 million years before the Cambrian, when the first definite crown-bilaterian fossils occur. Most previous molecular clock dating studies, however, have suffered from limited data and biases in methodologies, and virtually all have failed to acknowledge the large uncertainties associated with the fossil record of early animals, leading to inconsistent estimates among studies. Here we use an unprecedented amount of molecular data, combined with four fossil calibration strategies (reflecting disparate and controversial interpretations of the metazoan fossil record) to obtain Bayesian estimates of metazoan divergence times. Our results indicate that the uncertain nature of ancient fossils and violations of the molecular clock impose a limit on the precision that can be achieved in estimates of ancient molecular timescales. For example, although we can assert that crown Metazoa originated during the Cryogenian (with most crown-bilaterian phyla diversifying during the Ediacaran), it is not possible with current data to pinpoint the divergence events with sufficient accuracy to test for correlations between geological and biological events in the history of animals. Although a Cryogenian origin of crown Metazoa agrees with current geological interpretations, the divergence dates of the bilaterians remain controversial. Thus, attempts to build evolutionary narratives of early animal evolution based on molecular clock timescales appear to be premature. PMID:26603774

The impact of past climate change on genetic variation and population connectivity in the Icelandic arctic fox

PubMed Central

Mellows, Andrew; Barnett, Ross; Dalén, Love; Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Linderholm, Anna; McGovern, Thomas H.; Church, Mike J.; Larson, Greger

2012-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that the presence of sea ice is an important factor in facilitating migration and determining the degree of genetic isolation among contemporary arctic fox populations. Because the extent of sea ice is dependent upon global temperatures, periods of significant cooling would have had a major impact on fox population connectivity and genetic variation. We tested this hypothesis by extracting and sequencing mitochondrial control region sequences from 17 arctic foxes excavated from two late-ninth-century to twelfth-century AD archaeological sites in northeast Iceland, both of which predate the Little Ice Age (approx. sixteenth to nineteenth century). Despite the fact that five haplotypes have been observed in modern Icelandic foxes, a single haplotype was shared among all of the ancient individuals. Results from simulations within an approximate Bayesian computation framework suggest that the rapid increase in Icelandic arctic fox haplotype diversity can only be explained by sea-ice-mediated fox immigration facilitated by the Little Ice Age. PMID:22977155

Holarctic genetic structure and range dynamics in the woolly mammoth

PubMed Central

Palkopoulou, Eleftheria; Dalén, Love; Lister, Adrian M.; Vartanyan, Sergey; Sablin, Mikhail; Sher, Andrei; Edmark, Veronica Nyström; Brandström, Mikael D.; Germonpré, Mietje; Barnes, Ian; Thomas, Jessica A.

2013-01-01

Ancient DNA analyses have provided enhanced resolution of population histories in many Pleistocene taxa. However, most studies are spatially restricted, making inference of species-level biogeographic histories difficult. Here, we analyse mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in the woolly mammoth from across its Holarctic range to reconstruct its history over the last 200 thousand years (kyr). We identify a previously undocumented major mtDNA lineage in Europe, which was replaced by another major mtDNA lineage 32–34 kyr before present (BP). Coalescent simulations provide support for demographic expansions at approximately 121 kyr BP, suggesting that the previous interglacial was an important driver for demography and intraspecific genetic divergence. Furthermore, our results suggest an expansion into Eurasia from America around 66 kyr BP, coinciding with the first exposure of the Bering Land Bridge during the Late Pleistocene. Bayesian inference indicates Late Pleistocene demographic stability until 20–15 kyr BP, when a severe population size decline occurred. PMID:24026825

Ancient DNA sequence revealed by error-correcting codes.

PubMed

Brandão, Marcelo M; Spoladore, Larissa; Faria, Luzinete C B; Rocha, Andréa S L; Silva-Filho, Marcio C; Palazzo, Reginaldo

2015-07-10

A previously described DNA sequence generator algorithm (DNA-SGA) using error-correcting codes has been employed as a computational tool to address the evolutionary pathway of the genetic code. The code-generated sequence alignment demonstrated that a residue mutation revealed by the code can be found in the same position in sequences of distantly related taxa. Furthermore, the code-generated sequences do not promote amino acid changes in the deviant genomes through codon reassignment. A Bayesian evolutionary analysis of both code-generated and homologous sequences of the Arabidopsis thaliana malate dehydrogenase gene indicates an approximately 1 MYA divergence time from the MDH code-generated sequence node to its paralogous sequences. The DNA-SGA helps to determine the plesiomorphic state of DNA sequences because a single nucleotide alteration often occurs in distantly related taxa and can be found in the alternative codon patterns of noncanonical genetic codes. As a consequence, the algorithm may reveal an earlier stage of the evolution of the standard code.

Ancient DNA sequence revealed by error-correcting codes

PubMed Central

Brandão, Marcelo M.; Spoladore, Larissa; Faria, Luzinete C. B.; Rocha, Andréa S. L.; Silva-Filho, Marcio C.; Palazzo, Reginaldo

2015-01-01

A previously described DNA sequence generator algorithm (DNA-SGA) using error-correcting codes has been employed as a computational tool to address the evolutionary pathway of the genetic code. The code-generated sequence alignment demonstrated that a residue mutation revealed by the code can be found in the same position in sequences of distantly related taxa. Furthermore, the code-generated sequences do not promote amino acid changes in the deviant genomes through codon reassignment. A Bayesian evolutionary analysis of both code-generated and homologous sequences of the Arabidopsis thaliana malate dehydrogenase gene indicates an approximately 1 MYA divergence time from the MDH code-generated sequence node to its paralogous sequences. The DNA-SGA helps to determine the plesiomorphic state of DNA sequences because a single nucleotide alteration often occurs in distantly related taxa and can be found in the alternative codon patterns of noncanonical genetic codes. As a consequence, the algorithm may reveal an earlier stage of the evolution of the standard code. PMID:26159228

An experimental phylogeny to benchmark ancestral sequence reconstruction

PubMed Central

Randall, Ryan N.; Radford, Caelan E.; Roof, Kelsey A.; Natarajan, Divya K.; Gaucher, Eric A.

2016-01-01

Ancestral sequence reconstruction (ASR) is a still-burgeoning method that has revealed many key mechanisms of molecular evolution. One criticism of the approach is an inability to validate its algorithms within a biological context as opposed to a computer simulation. Here we build an experimental phylogeny using the gene of a single red fluorescent protein to address this criticism. The evolved phylogeny consists of 19 operational taxonomic units (leaves) and 17 ancestral bifurcations (nodes) that display a wide variety of fluorescent phenotypes. The 19 leaves then serve as ‘modern' sequences that we subject to ASR analyses using various algorithms and to benchmark against the known ancestral genotypes and ancestral phenotypes. We confirm computer simulations that show all algorithms infer ancient sequences with high accuracy, yet we also reveal wide variation in the phenotypes encoded by incorrectly inferred sequences. Specifically, Bayesian methods incorporating rate variation significantly outperform the maximum parsimony criterion in phenotypic accuracy. Subsampling of extant sequences had minor effect on the inference of ancestral sequences. PMID:27628687

The impact of past climate change on genetic variation and population connectivity in the Icelandic arctic fox.

PubMed

Mellows, Andrew; Barnett, Ross; Dalén, Love; Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Linderholm, Anna; McGovern, Thomas H; Church, Mike J; Larson, Greger

2012-11-22

Previous studies have suggested that the presence of sea ice is an important factor in facilitating migration and determining the degree of genetic isolation among contemporary arctic fox populations. Because the extent of sea ice is dependent upon global temperatures, periods of significant cooling would have had a major impact on fox population connectivity and genetic variation. We tested this hypothesis by extracting and sequencing mitochondrial control region sequences from 17 arctic foxes excavated from two late-ninth-century to twelfth-century AD archaeological sites in northeast Iceland, both of which predate the Little Ice Age (approx. sixteenth to nineteenth century). Despite the fact that five haplotypes have been observed in modern Icelandic foxes, a single haplotype was shared among all of the ancient individuals. Results from simulations within an approximate Bayesian computation framework suggest that the rapid increase in Icelandic arctic fox haplotype diversity can only be explained by sea-ice-mediated fox immigration facilitated by the Little Ice Age.

Correlating the Ancient Maya and Modern European Calendars with High-Precision AMS 14C Dating

PubMed Central

Kennett, Douglas J.; Hajdas, Irka; Culleton, Brendan J.; Belmecheri, Soumaya; Martin, Simon; Neff, Hector; Awe, Jaime; Graham, Heather V.; Freeman, Katherine H.; Newsom, Lee; Lentz, David L.; Anselmetti, Flavio S.; Robinson, Mark; Marwan, Norbert; Southon, John; Hodell, David A.; Haug, Gerald H.

2013-01-01

The reasons for the development and collapse of Maya civilization remain controversial and historical events carved on stone monuments throughout this region provide a remarkable source of data about the rise and fall of these complex polities. Use of these records depends on correlating the Maya and European calendars so that they can be compared with climate and environmental datasets. Correlation constants can vary up to 1000 years and remain controversial. We report a series of high-resolution AMS 14C dates on a wooden lintel collected from the Classic Period city of Tikal bearing Maya calendar dates. The radiocarbon dates were calibrated using a Bayesian statistical model and indicate that the dates were carved on the lintel between AD 658-696. This strongly supports the Goodman-Martínez-Thompson (GMT) correlation and the hypothesis that climate change played an important role in the development and demise of this complex civilization. PMID:23579869

How Much Water Trees Access and How It Determines Forest Response to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdanier, A. B.; Clark, J. S.

2015-12-01

Forests are transformed by drought as water availability drops below levels where trees of different sizes and species can maintain productivity and survive. Physiological studies have provided detailed understanding of how species differences affect drought vulnerability but they offer almost no insights about the amount of water different trees can access beyond general statements about rooting depth. While canopy architecture provides strong evidence for light availability aboveground, belowground moisture availability remains essentially unknown. For example, do larger trees always have greater access to soil moisture? In temperate mixed forests, the ability to access a large soil moisture pool could minimize damage during drought events and facilitate post-drought recovery, potentially at the expense of neighboring trees. We show that the pool of accessible soil moisture can be estimated for trees with data on whole-plant transpiration and that this data can be used to predict water availability for forest stands. We estimate soil water availability with a Bayesian state-space model based on a simple water balance, where cumulative depressions in water use below potential transpiration indicate soil resource depletion. We compare trees of different sizes and species, extend these findings to the entire stand, and connect them to our recent research showing that tree survival after drought depends on post-drought growth recovery and local moisture availability. These results can be used to predict competitive abilities for soil water, understand ecohydrological variation within stands, and identify trees that are at risk of damage from future drought events.

Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Cook, Bruce D.; Weiskittel, Andrew; Woodall, Christopher W.

2016-01-01

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

Estimating the ecology of extinct species with paleoecological data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raiho, A.; McLachlan, J. S.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

In order to understand long term, unobservable ecosystem processes, ecologists must use both paleoecoloigcal data and ecosystem models. Models parameterize species competitive interactions using modern data. But, modern ecological or physiological observations are not available for extinct species, making it difficult for models to conceptualize their ecology. For instance, American chestnut (Castanea dentata), who played a large role in forests of northeastern US, was decimated by disease to virtual extinction. Since chestnut's demise, defining its ecology has been controversial. Models typically assume that chestnut's ecology was very similar to oak; They parameterize chestnut like oak species. These assumptions are drawn from paleoecological data, but these data are often reported without uncertainty. Since the paleoecological data are often reported without uncertainty, paleoecological data has never been directly incorporated with ecosystem models. We developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate fractional composition from paleoecological data with uncertainty. Then, we assimilated this data product into an ecosystem model for long term forest succession using a generalized ensemble adjustment filter to determine which species demographic parameters lead to changes in species composition over the last 2,000 years at Harvard Forest. We found that chestnut was strongly negatively correlated with white pine (Pinus strobus) and red oak (Quercus rubra) in the process covariance matrix, suggesting a strong competitive interaction that is not currently understood by models for forest succession. These findings provide support for utilizing a data assimilation framework to ecologically interpret paleoecological data or data products to learn about the ecology of extinct species.

New insights on palaeofires and savannisation in northern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rull, Valentí; Montoya, Encarni; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa; Ballesteros, Tania

2015-08-01

Understanding the origin and ecological dynamics of tropical savannas in terms of natural and human drivers of change is a hot topic that may be crucial for conservation. The case of the Gran Sabana (GS), a huge savanna island within the Amazon-Orinoco rainforests, is presented as a pilot study for the Neotropics. A vivid debate exists on whether or not forests formerly covered the GS and on the potential role of anthropogenic fires in the establishment of present-day savannas. This debate has generated a conflict between conservation ecologists defending the ancient forests hypothesis and indigenous inhabitants (Pemones), for whom the use of fire is an inalienable cultural trait. Here we discuss the latest palaeoecological findings documenting past vegetation dynamics and the shaping of present GS landscapes. At the beginning of the Younger Dryas (YD), the GS was more forested than it is today but an abrupt, hitherto irreversible, shift toward savannisation, likely caused by coupled climate-fire synergies, was recorded between the mid-YD and the Early Holocene. It is suggested that fires could have been ignited by the first South American settlers in their eastward migration from the Panama Isthmus through the so called Atlantic Route. The Pemones would have established in the GS during the Late Holocene when savannas already covered the region. A simplistic debate between either forest or savanna as the "original" GS vegetation is unrealistic and should be replaced by a more dynamic approach. The term "original" vegetation itself is misleading and should not be used.

Examining spectral properties of Landsat 8 OLI for predicting above-ground carbon of Labanan Forest, Berau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhardiman, A.; Tampubolon, B. A.; Sumaryono, M.

2018-04-01

Many studies revealed significant correlation between satellite image properties and forest data attributes such as stand volume, biomass or carbon stock. However, further study is still relevant due to advancement of remote sensing technology as well as improvement on methods of data analysis. In this study, the properties of three vegetation indices derived from Landsat 8 OLI were tested upon above-ground carbon stock data from 50 circular sample plots (30-meter radius) from ground survey in PT. Inhutani I forest concession in Labanan, Berau, East Kalimantan. Correlation analysis using Pearson method exhibited a promising results when the coefficient of correlation (r-value) was higher than 0.5. Further regression analysis was carried out to develop mathematical model describing the correlation between sample plots data and vegetation index image using various mathematical models.Power and exponential model were demonstrated a good result for all vegetation indices. In order to choose the most adequate mathematical model for predicting Above-ground Carbon (AGC), the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) was applied. The lowest BIC value (i.e. -376.41) shown by Transformed Vegetation Index (TVI) indicates this formula, AGC = 9.608*TVI21.54, is the best predictor of AGC of study area.

Tropical rainforests that persisted: inferences from the Quaternary demographic history of eight tree species in the Guiana shield.

PubMed

Barthe, Stéphanie; Binelli, Giorgio; Hérault, Bruno; Scotti-Saintagne, Caroline; Sabatier, Daniel; Scotti, Ivan

2017-02-01

How Quaternary climatic and geological disturbances influenced the composition of Neotropical forests is hotly debated. Rainfall and temperature changes during and/or immediately after the last glacial maximum (LGM) are thought to have strongly affected the geographical distribution and local abundance of tree species. The paucity of the fossil records in Neotropical forests prevents a direct reconstruction of such processes. To describe community-level historical trends in forest composition, we turned therefore to inferential methods based on the reconstruction of past demographic changes. In particular, we modelled the history of rainforests in the eastern Guiana Shield over a timescale of several thousand generations, through the application of approximate Bayesian computation and maximum-likelihood methods to diversity data at nuclear and chloroplast loci in eight species or subspecies of rainforest trees. Depending on the species and on the method applied, we detected population contraction, expansion or stability, with a general trend in favour of stability or expansion, with changes presumably having occurred during or after the LGM. These findings suggest that Guiana Shield rainforests have globally persisted, while expanding, through the Quaternary, but that different species have experienced different demographic events, with a trend towards the increase in frequency of light-demanding, disturbance-associated species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ancient charcoal as a natural archive for paleofire regime and vegetation change in the Mayumbe, Democratic Republic of the Congo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubau, Wannes; Van den Bulcke, Jan; Kitin, Peter; Mees, Florias; Baert, Geert; Verschuren, Dirk; Nsenga, Laurent; Van Acker, Joris; Beeckman, Hans

2013-09-01

Charcoal was sampled in four soil profiles at the Mayumbe forest boundary (DRC). Five fire events were recorded and 44 charcoal types were identified. One stratified profile yielded charcoal assemblages around 530 cal yr BP and > 43.5 cal ka BP in age. The oldest assemblage precedes the period of recorded anthropogenic burning, illustrating occasional long-term absence of fire but also natural wildfire occurrences within tropical rainforest. No other charcoal assemblages older than 2500 cal yr BP were recorded, perhaps due to bioturbation and colluvial reworking. The recorded paleofires were possibly associated with short-lived climate anomalies. Progressively dry climatic conditions since ca. 4000 cal yr BP onward did not promote paleofire occurrence until increasing seasonality affected vegetation at the end of the third millennium BP, as illustrated by a fire occurring in mature rainforest that persisted until around 2050 cal yr BP. During a drought episode coinciding with the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly', mature rainforest was locally replaced by woodland savanna. Charcoal remains from pioneer forest indicate that fire hampered forest regeneration after climatic drought episodes. The presence of pottery shards and oil-palm endocarps associated with two relatively recent paleofires suggests that the effects of climate variability were amplified by human activities.

Can a fake fir tell the truth about Swiss needle cast? (paper) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A key question in dendrochronology to reconstruct forest disturbance history is how to distinguish between the effects of Swiss needle cast (SNC) and other forest disturbance agents (e.g., Arceuthobium spp., Armillaria, Phaseolus schweinitzii, Dendroctonus ponderosae, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae, Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman, Orgyia pseudotsugata McDunnough) on radial stem growth of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco). SNC impacts physiological processes of carbon and water relations by stomatal occlusion and early needle abscission resulting in a reduction of tree growth with a distinct periodicity, whereas phytophagous pests reduce tree growth by defoliation with epidemics following less regular pseudo-periodicities. Outbreaks of the various forest disturbance agents differ in their magnitude, frequency, and duration. In particular, SNC impacts on Douglas-fir growth display a primary periodicity of 6-30 years and a secondary periodicity of 3-5 years which is unique to the causal fungus Phaeocryptopus gaeumannii (Rhode) Petrak. We use frequency domain analysis of tree-ring chronologies of Douglas-fir to identify the SNC disease cycle and separate the confounding effects of climate and SNC. We demonstrate the dendroecological reconstruction of SNC impacts on ancient Douglas-fir trees dated ~65K radioactive years B.P. from Eddyville, OR that were unearthed by the Oregon Department of Transportation. By the end of the 21st century, climate

Middle Pleistocene protein sequences from the rhinoceros genus Stephanorhinus and the phylogeny of extant and extinct Middle/Late Pleistocene Rhinocerotidae

PubMed Central

Smith, Geoff M.; Hutson, Jarod M.; Kindler, Lutz; Garcia-Moreno, Alejandro; Villaluenga, Aritza; Turner, Elaine

2017-01-01

Background Ancient protein sequences are increasingly used to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships between extinct and extant mammalian taxa. Here, we apply these recent developments to Middle Pleistocene bone specimens of the rhinoceros genus Stephanorhinus. No biomolecular sequence data is currently available for this genus, leaving phylogenetic hypotheses on its evolutionary relationships to extant and extinct rhinoceroses untested. Furthermore, recent phylogenies based on Rhinocerotidae (partial or complete) mitochondrial DNA sequences differ in the placement of the Sumatran rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis). Therefore, studies utilising ancient protein sequences from Middle Pleistocene contexts have the potential to provide further insights into the phylogenetic relationships between extant and extinct species, including Stephanorhinus and Dicerorhinus. Methods ZooMS screening (zooarchaeology by mass spectrometry) was performed on several Late and Middle Pleistocene specimens from the genus Stephanorhinus, subsequently followed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to obtain ancient protein sequences from a Middle Pleistocene Stephanorhinus specimen. We performed parallel analysis on a Late Pleistocene woolly rhinoceros specimen and extant species of rhinoceroses, resulting in the availability of protein sequence data for five extant species and two extinct genera. Phylogenetic analysis additionally included all extant Perissodactyla genera (Equus, Tapirus), and was conducted using Bayesian (MrBayes) and maximum-likelihood (RAxML) methods. Results Various ancient proteins were identified in both the Middle and Late Pleistocene rhinoceros samples. Protein degradation and proteome complexity are consistent with an endogenous origin of the identified proteins. Phylogenetic analysis of informative proteins resolved the Perissodactyla phylogeny in agreement with previous studies in regards to the placement of the families Equidae, Tapiridae, and Rhinocerotidae. Stephanorhinus is shown to be most closely related to the genera Coelodonta and Dicerorhinus. The protein sequence data further places the Sumatran rhino in a clade together with the genus Rhinoceros, opposed to forming a clade with the black and white rhinoceros species. Discussion The first biomolecular dataset available for Stephanorhinus places this genus together with the extinct genus Coelodonta and the extant genus Dicerorhinus. This is in agreement with morphological studies, although we are unable to resolve the order of divergence between these genera based on the protein sequences available. Our data supports the placement of the genus Dicerorhinus in a clade together with extant Rhinoceros species. Finally, the availability of protein sequence data for both extinct European rhinoceros genera allows future investigations into their geographic distribution and extinction chronologies. PMID:28316883

Middle Pleistocene protein sequences from the rhinoceros genus Stephanorhinus and the phylogeny of extant and extinct Middle/Late Pleistocene Rhinocerotidae.

PubMed

Welker, Frido; Smith, Geoff M; Hutson, Jarod M; Kindler, Lutz; Garcia-Moreno, Alejandro; Villaluenga, Aritza; Turner, Elaine; Gaudzinski-Windheuser, Sabine

2017-01-01

Ancient protein sequences are increasingly used to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships between extinct and extant mammalian taxa. Here, we apply these recent developments to Middle Pleistocene bone specimens of the rhinoceros genus Stephanorhinus . No biomolecular sequence data is currently available for this genus, leaving phylogenetic hypotheses on its evolutionary relationships to extant and extinct rhinoceroses untested. Furthermore, recent phylogenies based on Rhinocerotidae (partial or complete) mitochondrial DNA sequences differ in the placement of the Sumatran rhinoceros ( Dicerorhinus sumatrensis ). Therefore, studies utilising ancient protein sequences from Middle Pleistocene contexts have the potential to provide further insights into the phylogenetic relationships between extant and extinct species, including Stephanorhinus and Dicerorhinus . ZooMS screening (zooarchaeology by mass spectrometry) was performed on several Late and Middle Pleistocene specimens from the genus Stephanorhinus , subsequently followed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to obtain ancient protein sequences from a Middle Pleistocene Stephanorhinus specimen. We performed parallel analysis on a Late Pleistocene woolly rhinoceros specimen and extant species of rhinoceroses, resulting in the availability of protein sequence data for five extant species and two extinct genera. Phylogenetic analysis additionally included all extant Perissodactyla genera ( Equus , Tapirus ), and was conducted using Bayesian (MrBayes) and maximum-likelihood (RAxML) methods. Various ancient proteins were identified in both the Middle and Late Pleistocene rhinoceros samples. Protein degradation and proteome complexity are consistent with an endogenous origin of the identified proteins. Phylogenetic analysis of informative proteins resolved the Perissodactyla phylogeny in agreement with previous studies in regards to the placement of the families Equidae, Tapiridae, and Rhinocerotidae. Stephanorhinus is shown to be most closely related to the genera Coelodonta and Dicerorhinus . The protein sequence data further places the Sumatran rhino in a clade together with the genus Rhinoceros , opposed to forming a clade with the black and white rhinoceros species. The first biomolecular dataset available for Stephanorhinus places this genus together with the extinct genus Coelodonta and the extant genus Dicerorhinus . This is in agreement with morphological studies, although we are unable to resolve the order of divergence between these genera based on the protein sequences available. Our data supports the placement of the genus Dicerorhinus in a clade together with extant Rhinoceros species. Finally, the availability of protein sequence data for both extinct European rhinoceros genera allows future investigations into their geographic distribution and extinction chronologies.

Quantification of model uncertainty in aerosol optical thickness retrieval from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Määttä, A.; Laine, M.; Tamminen, J.; Veefkind, J. P.

2013-09-01

We study uncertainty quantification in remote sensing of aerosols in the atmosphere with top of the atmosphere reflectance measurements from the nadir-viewing Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Focus is on the uncertainty in aerosol model selection of pre-calculated aerosol models and on the statistical modelling of the model inadequacies. The aim is to apply statistical methodologies that improve the uncertainty estimates of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieval by propagating model selection and model error related uncertainties more realistically. We utilise Bayesian model selection and model averaging methods for the model selection problem and use Gaussian processes to model the smooth systematic discrepancies from the modelled to observed reflectance. The systematic model error is learned from an ensemble of operational retrievals. The operational OMI multi-wavelength aerosol retrieval algorithm OMAERO is used for cloud free, over land pixels of the OMI instrument with the additional Bayesian model selection and model discrepancy techniques. The method is demonstrated with four examples with different aerosol properties: weakly absorbing aerosols, forest fires over Greece and Russia, and Sahara dessert dust. The presented statistical methodology is general; it is not restricted to this particular satellite retrieval application.

The mitochondrial genome of Elodia flavipalpis Aldrich (Diptera: Tachinidae) and the evolutionary timescale of Tachinid flies.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhe; Su, Tian-Juan; Chesters, Douglas; Wang, Shi-di; Ho, Simon Y W; Zhu, Chao-Dong; Chen, Xiao-Lin; Zhang, Chun-Tian

2013-01-01

Tachinid flies are natural enemies of many lepidopteran and coleopteran pests of forests, crops, and fruit trees. In order to address the lack of genetic data in this economically important group, we sequenced the complete mitochondrial genome of the Palaearctic tachinid fly Elodia flavipalpis Aldrich, 1933. Usually found in Northern China and Japan, this species is one of the primary natural enemies of the leaf-roller moths (Tortricidae), which are major pests of various fruit trees. The 14,932-bp mitochondrial genome was typical of Diptera, with 13 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNA genes, and 2 rRNA genes. However, its control region is only 105 bp in length, which is the shortest found so far in flies. In order to estimate dipteran evolutionary relationships, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of 58 mitochondrial genomes from 23 families. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods supported the monophyly of both Tachinidae and superfamily Oestroidea. Within the subsection Calyptratae, Muscidae was inferred as the sister group to Oestroidea. Within Oestroidea, Calliphoridae and Sarcophagidae formed a sister clade to Oestridae and Tachinidae. Using a Bayesian relaxed clock calibrated with fossil data, we estimated that Tachinidae originated in the middle Eocene.

The Mitochondrial Genome of Elodia flavipalpis Aldrich (Diptera: Tachinidae) and the Evolutionary Timescale of Tachinid Flies

PubMed Central

Zhao, Zhe; Su, Tian-juan; Chesters, Douglas; Wang, Shi-di; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Zhu, Chao-dong; Chen, Xiao-lin; Zhang, Chun-tian

2013-01-01

Tachinid flies are natural enemies of many lepidopteran and coleopteran pests of forests, crops, and fruit trees. In order to address the lack of genetic data in this economically important group, we sequenced the complete mitochondrial genome of the Palaearctic tachinid fly Elodia flavipalpis Aldrich, 1933. Usually found in Northern China and Japan, this species is one of the primary natural enemies of the leaf-roller moths (Tortricidae), which are major pests of various fruit trees. The 14,932-bp mitochondrial genome was typical of Diptera, with 13 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNA genes, and 2 rRNA genes. However, its control region is only 105 bp in length, which is the shortest found so far in flies. In order to estimate dipteran evolutionary relationships, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of 58 mitochondrial genomes from 23 families. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods supported the monophyly of both Tachinidae and superfamily Oestroidea. Within the subsection Calyptratae, Muscidae was inferred as the sister group to Oestroidea. Within Oestroidea, Calliphoridae and Sarcophagidae formed a sister clade to Oestridae and Tachinidae. Using a Bayesian relaxed clock calibrated with fossil data, we estimated that Tachinidae originated in the middle Eocene. PMID:23626734

Optimization of the resources management in fighting wildfires.

PubMed

Martin-Fernández, Susana; Martínez-Falero, Eugenio; Pérez-González, J Manuel

2002-09-01

Wildfires lead to important economic, social, and environmental losses, especially in areas of Mediterranean climate where they are of a high intensity and frequency. Over the past 30 years there has been a dramatic surge in the development and use of fire spread models. However, given the chaotic nature of environmental systems, it is very difficult to develop real-time fire-extinguishing models. This article proposes a method of optimizing the performance of wildfire fighting resources such that losses are kept to a minimum. The optimization procedure includes discrete simulation algorithms and Bayesian optimization methods for discrete and continuous problems (simulated annealing and Bayesian global optimization). Fast calculus algorithms are applied to provide optimization outcomes in short periods of time such that the predictions of the model and the real behavior of the fire, combat resources, and meteorological conditions are similar. In addition, adaptive algorithms take into account the chaotic behavior of wildfire so that the system can be updated with data corresponding to the real situation to obtain a new optimum solution. The application of this method to the Northwest Forest of Madrid (Spain) is also described. This application allowed us to check that it is a helpful tool in the decision-making process.

Optimization of the Resources Management in Fighting Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin-Fernández, Susana; Martínez-Falero, Eugenio; Pérez-González, J. Manuel

2002-09-01

Wildfires lead to important economic, social, and environmental losses, especially in areas of Mediterranean climate where they are of a high intensity and frequency. Over the past 30 years there has been a dramatic surge in the development and use of fire spread models. However, given the chaotic nature of environmental systems, it is very difficult to develop real-time fire-extinguishing models. This article proposes a method of optimizing the performance of wildfire fighting resources such that losses are kept to a minimum. The optimization procedure includes discrete simulation algorithms and Bayesian optimization methods for discrete and continuous problems (simulated annealing and Bayesian global optimization). Fast calculus algorithms are applied to provide optimization outcomes in short periods of time such that the predictions of the model and the real behavior of the fire, combat resources, and meteorological conditions are similar. In addition, adaptive algorithms take into account the chaotic behavior of wildfire so that the system can be updated with data corresponding to the real situation to obtain a new optimum solution. The application of this method to the Northwest Forest of Madrid (Spain) is also described. This application allowed us to check that it is a helpful tool in the decision-making process.

Bayesian estimation of post-Messinian divergence times in Balearic Island lizards.

PubMed

Brown, R P; Terrasa, B; Pérez-Mellado, V; Castro, J A; Hoskisson, P A; Picornell, A; Ramon, M M

2008-07-01

Phylogenetic relationships and timings of major cladogenesis events are investigated in the Balearic Island lizards Podarcislilfordi and P.pityusensis using 2675bp of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences. Partitioned Bayesian and Maximum Parsimony analyses provided a well-resolved phylogeny with high node-support values. Bayesian MCMC estimation of node dates was investigated by comparing means of posterior distributions from different subsets of the sequence against the most robust analysis which used multiple partitions and allowed for rate heterogeneity among branches under a rate-drift model. Evolutionary rates were systematically underestimated and thus divergence times overestimated when sequences containing lower numbers of variable sites were used (based on ingroup node constraints). The following analyses allowed the best recovery of node times under the constant-rate (i.e., perfect clock) model: (i) all cytochrome b sequence (partitioned by codon position), (ii) cytochrome b (codon position 3 alone), (iii) NADH dehydrogenase (subunits 1 and 2; partitioned by codon position), (iv) cytochrome b and NADH dehydrogenase sequence together (six gene-codon partitions), (v) all unpartitioned sequence, (vi) a full multipartition analysis (nine partitions). Of these, only (iv) and (vi) performed well under the rate-drift model. These findings have significant implications for dating of recent divergence times in other taxa. The earliest P.lilfordi cladogenesis event (divergence of Menorcan populations), occurred before the end of the Pliocene, some 2.6Ma. Subsequent events led to a West Mallorcan lineage (2.0Ma ago), followed 1.2Ma ago by divergence of populations from the southern part of the Cabrera archipelago from a widely-distributed group from north Cabrera, northern and southern Mallorcan islets. Divergence within P.pityusensis is more recent with the main Ibiza and Formentera clades sharing a common ancestor at about 1.0Ma ago. Climatic and sea level changes are likely to have initiated cladogenesis, with lineages making secondary contact during periodic landbridge formation. This oscillating cross-archipelago pattern in which ancient divergence is followed by repeated contact resembles that seen between East-West refugia populations from mainland Europe.

Biogeography of the Pistia clade (Araceae): based on chloroplast and mitochondrial DNA sequences and Bayesian divergence time inference.

PubMed

Renner, Susanne S; Zhang, Li-Bing

2004-06-01

Pistia stratiotes (water lettuce) and Lemna (duckweeds) are the only free-floating aquatic Araceae. The geographic origin and phylogenetic placement of these unrelated aroids present long-standing problems because of their highly modified reproductive structures and wide geographical distributions. We sampled chloroplast (trnL-trnF and rpl20-rps12 spacers, trnL intron) and mitochondrial sequences (nad1 b/c intron) for all genera implicated as close relatives of Pistia by morphological, restriction site, and sequencing data, and present a hypothesis about its geographic origin based on the consensus of trees obtained from the combined data, using Bayesian, maximum likelihood, parsimony, and distance analyses. Of the 14 genera closest to Pistia, only Alocasia, Arisaema, and Typhonium are species-rich, and the latter two were studied previously, facilitating the choice of representatives that span the roots of these genera. Results indicate that Pistia and the Seychelles endemic Protarum sechellarum are the basalmost branches in a grade comprising the tribes Colocasieae (Ariopsis, Steudnera, Remusatia, Alocasia, Colocasia), Arisaemateae (Arisaema, Pinellia), and Areae (Arum, Biarum, Dracunculus, Eminium, Helicodiceros, Theriophonum, Typhonium). Unexpectedly, all Areae genera are embedded in Typhonium, which throws new light on the geographic history of Areae. A Bayesian analysis of divergence times that explores the effects of multiple fossil and geological calibration points indicates that the Pistia lineage is 90 to 76 million years (my) old. The oldest fossils of the Pistia clade, though not Pistia itself, are 45-my-old leaves from Germany; the closest outgroup, Peltandreae (comprising a few species in Florida, the Mediterranean, and Madagascar), is known from 60-my-old leaves from Europe, Kazakhstan, North Dakota, and Tennessee. Based on the geographic ranges of close relatives, Pistia likely originated in the Tethys region, with Protarum then surviving on the Seychelles, which became isolated from Madagascar and India in the Late Cretaceous (85 my ago). Pistia and Protarum provide striking examples of ancient lineages that appear to have survived in unique or isolated habitats.

Changes in understory species occurrence of a secondary broadleaved forest after mass mortality of oak trees under deer foraging pressure

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The epidemic of mass mortality of oak trees by Japanese oak wilt has affected secondary deciduous broadleaved forests that have been used as coppices in Japan. The dieback of oak trees formed gaps in the crown that would be expected to enhance the regeneration of shade-intolerant pioneer species. However, foraging by sika deer Cervus nippon has also affected forest vegetation, and the compound effects of both on forest regeneration should be considered when they simultaneously occur. A field study was conducted in Kyôto City, Japan to investigate how these compound effects affected the vegetation of the understory layer of these forests. The presence/absence of seedlings and saplings was observed for 200 quadrats sized 5 m ×5 m for each species in 1992, before the mass mortality and deer encroachment, and in 2014 after these effects. A hierarchical Bayesian model was constructed to explain the occurrence, survival, and colonization of each species with their responses to the gaps that were created, expanded, or affected by the mass mortality of Quercus serrata trees. The species that occurred most frequently in 1992, Eurya japonica, Quercus glauca, and Cleyera japonica, also had the highest survival probabilities. Deer-unpalatable species such as Symplocos prunifolia and Triadica sebifera had higher colonization rates in the gaps, while the deer-palatable species Aucuba japonica had the smallest survival probability. The gaps thus promoted the colonization of deer-unpalatable plant species such as Symplocos prunifolia and Triadica sebifera. In the future, such deer-unpalatable species may dominate gaps that were created, expanded, or affected by the mass mortality of oak trees. PMID:28028480

Changes in understory species occurrence of a secondary broadleaved forest after mass mortality of oak trees under deer foraging pressure.

PubMed

Itô, Hiroki

2016-01-01

The epidemic of mass mortality of oak trees by Japanese oak wilt has affected secondary deciduous broadleaved forests that have been used as coppices in Japan. The dieback of oak trees formed gaps in the crown that would be expected to enhance the regeneration of shade-intolerant pioneer species. However, foraging by sika deer Cervus nippon has also affected forest vegetation, and the compound effects of both on forest regeneration should be considered when they simultaneously occur. A field study was conducted in Kyôto City, Japan to investigate how these compound effects affected the vegetation of the understory layer of these forests. The presence/absence of seedlings and saplings was observed for 200 quadrats sized 5 m ×5 m for each species in 1992, before the mass mortality and deer encroachment, and in 2014 after these effects. A hierarchical Bayesian model was constructed to explain the occurrence, survival, and colonization of each species with their responses to the gaps that were created, expanded, or affected by the mass mortality of Quercus serrata trees. The species that occurred most frequently in 1992, Eurya japonica , Quercus glauca , and Cleyera japonica , also had the highest survival probabilities. Deer-unpalatable species such as Symplocos prunifolia and Triadica sebifera had higher colonization rates in the gaps, while the deer-palatable species Aucuba japonica had the smallest survival probability. The gaps thus promoted the colonization of deer-unpalatable plant species such as Symplocos prunifolia and Triadica sebifera . In the future, such deer-unpalatable species may dominate gaps that were created, expanded, or affected by the mass mortality of oak trees.

Estimating Dbh of Trees Employing Multiple Linear Regression of the best Lidar-Derived Parameter Combination Automated in Python in a Natural Broadleaf Forest in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibanez, C. A. G.; Carcellar, B. G., III; Paringit, E. C.; Argamosa, R. J. L.; Faelga, R. A. G.; Posilero, M. A. V.; Zaragosa, G. P.; Dimayacyac, N. A.

2016-06-01

Diameter-at-Breast-Height Estimation is a prerequisite in various allometric equations estimating important forestry indices like stem volume, basal area, biomass and carbon stock. LiDAR Technology has a means of directly obtaining different forest parameters, except DBH, from the behavior and characteristics of point cloud unique in different forest classes. Extensive tree inventory was done on a two-hectare established sample plot in Mt. Makiling, Laguna for a natural growth forest. Coordinates, height, and canopy cover were measured and types of species were identified to compare to LiDAR derivatives. Multiple linear regression was used to get LiDAR-derived DBH by integrating field-derived DBH and 27 LiDAR-derived parameters at 20m, 10m, and 5m grid resolutions. To know the best combination of parameters in DBH Estimation, all possible combinations of parameters were generated and automated using python scripts and additional regression related libraries such as Numpy, Scipy, and Scikit learn were used. The combination that yields the highest r-squared or coefficient of determination and lowest AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion) and BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) was determined to be the best equation. The equation is at its best using 11 parameters at 10mgrid size and at of 0.604 r-squared, 154.04 AIC and 175.08 BIC. Combination of parameters may differ among forest classes for further studies. Additional statistical tests can be supplemented to help determine the correlation among parameters such as Kaiser- Meyer-Olkin (KMO) Coefficient and the Barlett's Test for Spherecity (BTS).

Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds.

PubMed

Börger, Luca; Nudds, Thomas D

2014-01-01

Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Bayesian multi-model inference framework to decompose the dynamics of species distributions into responses to environmental variability, spatial variation in habitat conditions, and population dynamics and interspecific interactions, while correcting for observation errors and variation in sampling regimes. We modeled distribution dynamics of 14 waterbird species (broadly defined, including wetland and riparian species) using data from two different breeding bird surveys collected in the Boreal Shield ecozone within Ontario, Canada. Temporal variation in species occupancy (2000-2006) was primarily driven by climatic variability. Only two species showed evidence of consistent temporal trends in distribution: Ring-necked Duck (Aythya collaris) decreased, and Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) increased. The models had good predictive ability on independent data over time (1997-1999). Spatial variation in species occupancy was strongly related to the distribution of specific land cover types and habitat disturbance: Fire and forest harvesting influenced occupancy more than did roads, settlements, or mines. Bioclimatic and habitat heterogeneity indices and geographic coordinates exerted negligible influence on most species distributions. Estimated habitat suitability indices had good predictive ability on spatially independent data (Hudson Bay Lowlands ecozone). Additionally, we detected effects of interspecific interactions. Species responses to fire and forest harvesting were similar for 13 of 14 species; thus, forest-harvesting practices in Ontario generally appeared to emulate the effects of fire for waterbirds over timescales of 10-20 years. Extrapolating to all 84 waterbird species breeding on the Ontario Boreal Shield, however, suggested that up to 30 species may instead have altered (short-term) distribution dynamics due to forestry practices. Hence, natural disturbances are critical components of the ecology of the boreal forest and forest practices which aim to approximate them may succeed in allowing the maintenance of the associated species, but improved monitoring and modeling of large-scale boreal forest bird distribution dynamics will be necessary to resolve existing uncertainties, especially on less-common species.

Stratigraphic Reconstruction of a Late Pleistocene Cypress Forest Discovered on the Northern Gulf of Mexico Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez Rodriguez, S. M.; Bentley, S. J.; Obelcz, J.; Truong, J. T.; DeLong, K. L.; Xu, K.; Harley, G. L.; Reese, C. A.; Caporaso, A.; Shen, Z.

2017-12-01

A previously buried bald cypress forest (Taxodium distichum) was discovered on the continental shelf, offshore of Orange Beach, Alabama, USA, in 20 m water depth. The forest was possibly exhumed by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, and is now exposed as stumps in life position in a trough located in the northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf seafloor. We are investigating the local stratigraphy, paleo-landscape, and mode of forest preservation of this unique site. In August 2015 and July 2016, submersible vibracores (18 in total) were collected. Core analysis included: bulk density and imaging via Geotek multi sensor core logger, sediment grain size, structure, and organic content via loss-on-ignition. Selected samples have been dated using 14C and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) methods. Multibeam and CHIRP subbottom bathymetry provide context for litho- and chrono-stratigraphy of the site. Integration of core lithostratigraphy and modern shelf bathymetry reveal Holocene transgressive sands blanketing diverse sedimentary facies that are truncated by the late Pleistocene-early Holocene ravinement. Deposits below the ravinement surface include interbedded sand and mud (exact age unknown, but possibly pertaining to a shallow marine environment), overlying a floodplain/swamp facies of woody debris, peat, and mud (provisionally dated by 14C to 41-45 ka). These units grade laterally into paleosols that appear to be 10-15 ka older, based on recently obtained preliminary OSL dates. Occurrence of paleosols and swamp deposits of broadly similar age and elevation suggests that the ancient landscape possessed topographic relief that allowed wetland and upland habitats to develop in close proximity. These new OSL dates enhance our initial hypothesis that floodplain aggradation in the area was a key factor that might have allowed forest preservation. The timing of temporary sea level rises (SLR) ca. 40 and 60 ka. with our 14C and preliminary OSL dates, suggests that floodplain aggradation associated with SLRs could have buried the swamp and forest sediments. Variable paleo-topography in the area at the time of burial provided enough sediment to keep the cypress forest blanketed, withstanding periods of erosion as sea level fluctuated through the late Pleistocene to Holocene, thus facilitating forest preservation.

Scale-dependent variation in forest structures in naturally dynamic boreal forest landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulha, Niko; Pasanen, Leena; De Grandpré, Louis; Kuuluvainen, Timo; Aakala, Tuomas

2017-04-01

Natural forest structures vary at multiple spatial scales. This variation reflects the occurrence of driving factors, such as disturbances and variation in soil or topography. To explore and understand the linkages of forest structural characteristics and factors driving their variation, we need to recognize how the structural characteristics vary in relation to spatial scale. This can be achieved by identifying scale-dependent features in forest structure within unmanaged forest landscapes. By identifying these features and examining their relationship with potential driving factors, we can better understand the dynamics of forest structural development. Here, we examine the spatial variation in forest structures at multiple spatial scales, utilizing data from old-growth boreal forests in two regions with contrasting disturbance regimes: northern Finland and north-eastern Québec, Canada ( 67° 45'N, 29° 36'E, 49° 39'N, 67° 55'W, respectively). The three landscapes (4 km2 each) in Finland are dominated by Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies, whereas the two landscapes in Québec are dominated by Abies balsamea and Picea mariana. Québec's forests are a subject to cyclic outbreaks of the eastern spruce budworm, causing extensive mortality especially in A. balsamea-dominated stands. In the Finnish landscapes, gap- to patch-scale disturbances due to tree senescence, fungi and wind, as well as infrequent surface fires in areas dominated by P. sylvestris, prevail. Owing to the differences in the species compositions and the disturbance regimes, we expect differing scales of variation between the landscapes. To quantify patterns of variation, we visually interpret stereopairs of recent aerial photographs. From the photographs, we collect information on forest canopy coverage, species composition and dead wood. For the interpretation, each 4 km2 plot is divided into 0.1ha square cells (4096 per plot). Interpretations are validated against field observations and compiled to raster maps. We analyze the raster maps with Bayesian scale space approach (iBSiZer), which aims in capturing credible variations at different spatial scales. As a result, we can detect structural entities (e.g. patches with higher canopy cover), which deviate credibly from their surroundings. The detected entities can further be linked to specific drivers. Our results show that the role of a particular driving factor varies in relation to spatial scale. For example, in the Finnish landscapes, topoedaphic factors exerted a stronger control on broad-scale forest structural characteristics, whereas recent disturbances (quantified as the amount of dead wood) appeared to play an important role in explaining the smaller scale variation of forest structures. Here, we showcase the methodology used in the detection of scale-dependent forest structural entities and present the results of our analysis of the spatial scales of variation in the natural boreal forest structures.

Molecular phylogeny and timing of diversification in South American Cynolebiini seasonal killifishes.

PubMed

Costa, Wilson J E M; Amorim, Pedro F; Mattos, José Leonardo O

2017-11-01

The rich biological diversity of South America has motivated a series of studies associating evolution of endemic taxa with the dramatic geologic and climatic changes that occurred during the Cainozoic. The organism here studied is the killifish tribe Cynolebiini, a group of seasonal fishes uniquely inhabiting temporary pools formed during the rainy seasons. The Cynolebiini are found in open vegetation areas inserted in the main tropical and subtropical South American phytogeographical regions east of the Andes. Here, we present the first molecular phylogeny sampling all the eight genera of the Cynolebiini, using fragments of two mitochondrial and four nuclear genes for 35 species of Cynolebiini plus 19 species as outgroups. The dataset, 4448bp, was analysed under Bayesian and maximum likelihood approaches, providing a relatively well solved tree, which retrieves high support values for the Cynolebiini and most included clades. The resulting tree was used to estimate the time of divergence in included lineages using two cyprinodontiform fossils to calibrate the tree. We further investigated historical biogeography through the likelihood-based DEC model. Our estimates indicate that divergence between the clades comprising New World and Old World aplocheiloids occurred during the Eocene, about 50Mya, much more recent than the Gondwanan fragmentation scenario assumed in previous studies. This estimation is nearly synchronous to estimated splits involving other South American and African vertebrate clades, which have been explained by transoceanic dispersal through an ancient Atlantic island chain during the Palaeogene. We estimate that Cynolebiini split from its sister group Cynopoecilini in the Oligocene, about 25Mya and that Cynolebiini started to diversify giving origin to the present genera during the Miocene, about 20-14Mya. The Cynolebiini had an ancestral origin in the Atlantic Forest and probably were not present in the open vegetation formations of central and northeastern South America until the Middle Miocene, when expansion of dry open vegetation was favoured by cool temperatures and strike seasonality. Initial splitting between the genera Cynolebias and Simpsonichthys during the Miocene (about 14Mya) is attributed to the uplift of the Central Brazilian Plateau. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model-based analyses reveal insular population diversification and cryptic frog species in the Ischnocnema parva complex in the Atlantic forest of Brazil.

PubMed

Gehara, Marcelo; Barth, Adriane; Oliveira, Eliana Faria de; Costa, Marco Antonio; Haddad, Célio Fernando Baptista; Vences, Miguel

2017-07-01

The Atlantic Forest (AF) of Brazil has long been recognized as a biodiversity conservation hotspot. Despite decades of studies the species inventory of this biome continues to increase with the discovery of cryptic diversity and the description of new species. Different diversification mechanisms have been proposed to explain the diversity in the region, including models of forest dynamics, barriers to gene flow and dispersal. Also, sea level change is thought to have influenced coastal diversification and isolated populations on continental islands. However, the timing and mode of diversification of insular populations in the AF region were rarely investigated. Here, we analyze the phylogeography and species diversity of the small-sized direct-developing frog Ischnocnema parva. These frogs are independent from water bodies but dependent on forest cover and high humidity, and provide good models to understand forest dynamics and insular diversification. Our analysis was based on DNA sequences for one mitochondrial and four nuclear genes of 71 samples from 18 localities including two islands, São Sebastião, municipality of Ilhabela, and Mar Virado, municipality of Ubatuba, both in the state of São Paulo. We use molecular taxonomic methods to show that I. parva is composed of six independently evolving lineages, with the nominal I. parva likely endemic to the type locality. The time-calibrated species tree shows that these lineages have diverged in the Pliocene and Pleistocene, suggesting the persistence of micro-refuges of forest in the AF. For the two insular populations we used approximate Bayesian computation to test different diversification hypotheses. Our findings support isolation with migration for São Sebastião population, with ∼1Mya divergence time, and isolation without migration for Mar Virado population, with ∼13Kya divergence time, suggesting a combination of different processes for diversification on AF islands. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Attributing the effects of climate on phenology change suggests high sensitivity in coastal zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyednasrollah, B.; Clark, J. S.

2015-12-01

The impact of climate change on spring phenology depends on many variables that cannot be separated using current models. Phenology can influence carbon sequestration, plant nutrition, forest health, and species distributions. Leaf phenology is sensitive to changes of environmental factors, including climate, species composition, latitude, and solar radiation. The many variables and their interactions frustrate efforts to attribute variation to climate change. We developed a Bayesian framework to quantify the influence of environment on the speed of forest green-up. This study presents a state-space hierarchical model to infer and predict change in forest greenness over time using satellite observations and ground measurements. The framework accommodates both observation and process errors and it allows for main effects of variables and their interactions. We used daily spaceborne remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify temporal variability in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) along a habitat gradient in the Southeastern United States. The ground measurements of meteorological parameters are obtained from study sites located in the Appalachian Mountains, the Piedmont and the Atlantic Coastal Plain between years 2000 and 2015. Results suggest that warming accelerates spring green-up in the Coastal Plain to a greater degree than in the Piedmont and Appalachian. In other words, regardless of variation in the timing of spring onset, the rate of greenness in non-coastal zones decreases with increasing temperature and hence with time over the spring transitional period. However, in coastal zones, as air temperature increases, leaf expansion becomes faster. This may indicate relative vulnerability to warming in non-coastal regions where moisture could be a limiting factor, whereas high temperatures in regions close to the coast enhance forest physiological activities. Model predictions agree with the remotely sensed observations of the enhanced vegetation index. These findings could be used in forest managements for identifying vulnerable forests based on their habitat type and hydrological status.

Habitat shifts in the evolutionary history of a Neotropical flycatcher lineage from forest and open landscapes

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Background Little is known about the role ecological shifts play in the evolution of Neotropical radiations that have colonized a variety of environments. We here examine habitat shifts in the evolutionary history of Elaenia flycatchers, a Neotropical bird lineage that lives in a range of forest and open habitats. We evaluate phylogenetic relationships within the genus based on mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data, and then employ parsimony-based and Bayesian methods to reconstruct preferences for a number of habitat types and migratory behaviour throughout the evolutionary history of the genus. Using a molecular clock approach, we date the most important habitat shifts. Results Our analyses resolve phylogenetic relationships among Elaenia species and confirm several species associations predicted by morphology while furnishing support for other taxon placements that are in conflict with traditional classification, such as the elevation of various Elaenia taxa to species level. While savannah specialism is restricted to one basal clade within the genus, montane forest was invaded from open habitat only on a limited number of occasions. Riparian growth may have been favoured early on in the evolution of the main Elaenia clade and subsequently been deserted on several occasions. Austral long-distance migratory behaviour evolved on several occasions. Conclusion Ancestral reconstructions of habitat preferences reveal pronounced differences not only in the timing of the emergence of certain habitat preferences, but also in the frequency of habitat shifts. The early origin of savannah specialism in Elaenia highlights the importance of this habitat in Neotropical Pliocene and late Miocene biogeography. While forest in old mountain ranges such as the Tepuis and the Brazilian Shield was colonized early on, the most important colonization event of montane forest was in conjunction with Pliocene Andean uplift. Riparian habitats may have played an important role in facilitating habitat shifts by birds expanding up the mountains along streams and adapting to newly emerging montane forest habitat. PMID:18601752

Unlocking the forest inventory data: relating individual tree performance to unmeasured environmental factors.

PubMed

Lichstein, Jeremy W; Dushoff, Jonathan; Ogle, Kiona; Chen, Anping; Purves, Drew W; Caspersen, John P; Pacala, Stephen W

2010-04-01

Geographically extensive forest inventories, such as the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, contain millions of individual tree growth and mortality records that could be used to develop broad-scale models of forest dynamics. A limitation of inventory data, however, is that individual-level measurements of light (L) and other environmental factors are typically absent. Thus, inventory data alone cannot be used to parameterize mechanistic models of forest dynamics in which individual performance depends on light, water, nutrients, etc. To overcome this limitation, we developed methods to estimate species-specific parameters (thetaG) relating sapling growth (G) to L using data sets in which G, but not L, is observed for each sapling. Our approach involves: (1) using calibration data that we collected in both eastern and western North America to quantify the probability that saplings receive different amounts of light, conditional on covariates x that can be obtained from inventory data (e.g., sapling crown class and neighborhood crowding); and (2) combining these probability distributions with observed G and x to estimate thetaG using Bayesian computational methods. Here, we present a test case using a data set in which G, L, and x were observed for saplings of nine species. This test data set allowed us to compare estimates of thetaG obtained from the standard approach (where G and L are observed for each sapling) to our method (where G and x, but not L, are observed). For all species, estimates of thetaG obtained from analyses with and without observed L were similar. This suggests that our approach should be useful for estimating light-dependent growth functions from inventory data that lack direct measurements of L. Our approach could be extended to estimate parameters relating sapling mortality to L from inventory data, as well as to deal with uncertainty in other resources (e.g., water or nutrients) or environmental factors (e.g., temperature).

Forest Restoration in a Fog Oasis: Evidence Indicates Need for Cultural Awareness in Constructing the Reference

PubMed Central

Balaguer, Luís; Arroyo-García, Rosa; Jiménez, Percy; Jiménez, María Dolores; Villegas, Luís; Cordero, Irene; Rubio de Casas, Rafael; Fernández-Delgado, Raúl; Ron, María Eugenia; Manrique, Esteban; Vargas, Pablo; Cano, Emilio; Pueyo, José J.; Aronson, James

2011-01-01

Background In the Peruvian Coastal Desert, an archipelago of fog oases, locally called lomas, are centers of biodiversity and of past human activity. Fog interception by a tree canopy, dominated by the legume tree tara (Caesalpinia spinosa), enables the occurrence in the Atiquipa lomas (southern Peru) of an environmental island with a diverse flora and high productivity. Although this forest provides essential services to the local population, it has suffered 90% anthropogenic reduction in area. Restoration efforts are now getting under way, including discussion as to the most appropriate reference ecosystem to use. Methodology/Principal Findings Genetic diversity of tara was studied in the Atiquipa population and over a wide geographical and ecological range. Neither exclusive plastid haplotypes to loma formations nor clear geographical structuring of the genetic diversity was found. Photosynthetic performance and growth of seedlings naturally recruited in remnant patches of loma forest were compared with those of seedlings recruited or planted in the adjacent deforested area. Despite the greater water and nitrogen availability under tree canopy, growth of forest seedlings did not differ from that of those recruited into the deforested area, and was lower than that of planted seedlings. Tara seedlings exhibited tight stomatal control of photosynthesis, and a structural photoprotection by leaflet closure. These drought-avoiding mechanisms did not optimize seedling performance under the conditions produced by forest interception of fog moisture. Conclusions/Significance Both weak geographic partitioning of genetic variation and lack of physiological specialization of seedlings to the forest water regime strongly suggest that tara was introduced to lomas by humans. Therefore, the most diverse fragment of lomas is the result of landscape management and resource use by pre-Columbian cultures. We argue that an appropriate reference ecosystem for ecological restoration of lomas should include sustainable agroforestry practices that emulate the outcomes of ancient uses. PMID:21829680

Trails through time: A geologist's guide to Jefferson County open space parks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, John C.

2014-01-01

Jefferson County Open Space Parks, as well as other nearby parks and National Forest lands, offer marvelousopportunities to explore the geologic story behind this singular landscape. At first the distribution of rocks of differentages and types seems almost random, but careful study of the rocks and landscape features reveals a captivatinggeologic story, a history that tells of the building of the foundations of the continent, the rise and destruction of longvanishedmountain ranges, the ebb and flow of ancient seas, and the constant shaping and reshaping of the landscape inresponse to the never-ending interplay between uplift and erosion. This historical account is constantly being improvedand expanded as new evidence accumulates and new interpretations evolve.

ETHNOBOTANICAL ASPECTS OF SOME PLANTS OF ARAVALLI HILLS IN NORTH GUJARAT

PubMed Central

Punjani, Bhasker L.

2002-01-01

The Aravalli ranges run along the Sabarkantha district is the ancient region of India, inhibited by tribals living in close vicinity of enriched forest. The present paper contains various ethnobotanical aspects of some plant species used by the tribals for their day-to day requirement. The paper includes the first hand information collected through tribal informants, medicinemen and tribal people of several villages during the field trips in the region for last three years in different seasons. The paper provides an account of the ethnobotanical uses for basic necessities and welfare of tribal life, medicine and hygiene, fuel fodder, fibres food, shelter, dye, oil and other miscellaneous purposes. PMID:22557066

Terrestrial-aquatic linkage in stream food webs along a forest chronosequence: multi-isotopic evidence.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Naoto F; Togashi, Hiroyuki; Kato, Yoshiyazu; Yoshimura, Mayumi; Kohmatsu, Yukihiro; Yoshimizu, Chikage; Ogawa, Nanako O; Ohte, Nobuhito; Tokuchi, Naoko; Ohkouchi, Naohiko; Tayasu, Ichiro

2016-05-01

Long-term monitoring of ecosystem succession provides baseline data for conservation and management, as well as for understanding the dynamics of underlying biogeochemical processes. We examined the effects of deforestation and subsequent afforestation of a riparian forest of Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) on stable isotope ratios of carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and natural abundances of radiocarbon (Δ¹⁴C) in stream biota in the Mt. Gomadan Experimental Forest and the Wakayama Forest Research Station, Kyoto University, central Japan. Macroinvertebrates, periphytic algae attached to rock surfaces (periphyton), and leaf litter of terrestrial plants were collected from six headwater streams with similar climate, topography, and bedrock geology, except for the stand ages of riparian forests (from 3 to 49 yr old in five stands and > 90 yr old in one reference stand). Light intensity and δ¹³C values of both periphyton and macroinvertebrates decreased synchronously with forest age in winter. A Bayesian mixing model indicates that periphyton contributions to the stream food webs are maximized in 23-yr-old forests. Except for grazers, most macroinvertebrates showed Δ¹⁴C values similar to those of terrestrial leaf litter, reflecting the influence of modern atmospheric CO₂ Δ¹⁴C values. On the other hand, the Δ¹⁴C values of both periphyton and grazers (i.e., aquatic primary consumers) were significantly lower than that of modern atmospheric CO₂, and were lowest in 23-yr-old forest stands. Previous studies show that root biomass of C. japonica peaks at 15-30 yr after planting. These evidences suggest that soil CO₂ released by root respiration and dispersed by groundwater weathers carbonate substrata, and that dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) with low Δ¹⁴C is incorporated into stream periphyton and some macroinvertebrates. The ecological response in the studied streams to clear-cutting and replanting of Japanese cedar is much slower (~20 yr) than the chemical response (< 5 yr). More than 50 yr is required for the food web structure to completely recover from clear-cutting. The ecological delay is attributed to several biogeochemical factors, the understanding of which is critical to integrated management of forest-stream continuum and the prediction of ecosystem resilience in response to environmental change.

Mapping of taiga forest units using AIRSAR data and/or optical data, and retrieval of forest parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rignot, Eric; Williams, Cynthia; Way, Jobea; Viereck, Leslie

1993-01-01

A maximum a posteriori Bayesian classifier for multifrequency polarimetric SAR data is used to perform a supervised classification of forest types in the floodplains of Alaska. The image classes include white spruce, balsam poplar, black spruce, alder, non-forests, and open water. The authors investigate the effect on classification accuracy of changing environmental conditions, and of frequency and polarization of the signal. The highest classification accuracy (86 percent correctly classified forest pixels, and 91 percent overall) is obtained combining L- and C-band frequencies fully polarimetric on a date where the forest is just recovering from flooding. The forest map compares favorably with a vegetation map assembled from digitized aerial photos which took five years for completion, and address the state of the forest in 1978, ignoring subsequent fires, changes in the course of the river, clear-cutting of trees, and tree growth. HV-polarization is the most useful polarization at L- and C-band for classification. C-band VV (ERS-1 mode) and L-band HH (J-ERS-1 mode) alone or combined yield unsatisfactory classification accuracies. Additional data acquired in the winter season during thawed and frozen days yield classification accuracies respectively 20 percent and 30 percent lower due to a greater confusion between conifers and deciduous trees. Data acquired at the peak of flooding in May 1991 also yield classification accuracies 10 percent lower because of dominant trunk-ground interactions which mask out finer differences in radar backscatter between tree species. Combination of several of these dates does not improve classification accuracy. For comparison, panchromatic optical data acquired by SPOT in the summer season of 1991 are used to classify the same area. The classification accuracy (78 percent for the forest types and 90 percent if open water is included) is lower than that obtained with AIRSAR although conifers and deciduous trees are better separated due to the presence of leaves on the deciduous trees. Optical data do not separate black spruce and white spruce as well as SAR data, cannot separate alder from balsam poplar, and are of course limited by the frequent cloud cover in the polar regions. Yet, combining SPOT and AIRSAR offers better chances to identify vegetation types independent of ground truth information using a combination of NDVI indexes from SPOT, biomass numbers from AIRSAR, and a segmentation map from either one.

A new measurement of the intergalactic temperature at z ˜ 2.55-2.95

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rorai, Alberto; Carswell, Robert F.; Haehnelt, Martin G.; Becker, George D.; Bolton, James S.; Murphy, Michael T.

2018-03-01

We present two measurements of the temperature-density relationship (TDR) of the intergalactic medium (IGM) in the redshift range 2.55 < z < 2.95 using a sample of 13 high-quality quasar spectra and high resolution numerical simulations of the IGM. Our approach is based on fitting the neutral hydrogen column density N_{H I} and the Doppler parameter b of the absorption lines in the Lyα forest. The first measurement is obtained using a novel Bayesian scheme that takes into account the statistical correlations between the parameters characterizing the lower cut-off of the b-N_{H I} distribution and the power-law parameters T0 and γ describing the TDR. This approach yields T0/103 K = 15.6 ± 4.4 and γ = 1.45 ± 0.17 independent of the assumed pressure smoothing of the small-scale density field. In order to explore the information contained in the overall b-N_{H I} distribution rather than only the lower cut-off, we obtain a second measurement based on a similar Bayesian analysis of the median Doppler parameter for separate column-density ranges of the absorbers. In this case, we obtain T0/103 K = 14.6 ± 3.7 and γ = 1.37 ± 0.17 in good agreement with the first measurement. Our Bayesian analysis reveals strong anticorrelations between the inferred T0 and γ for both methods as well as an anticorrelation of the inferred T0 and the pressure smoothing length for the second method, suggesting that the measurement accuracy can in the latter case be substantially increased if independent constraints on the smoothing are obtained. Our results are in good agreement with other recent measurements of the thermal state of the IGM probing similar (over-)density ranges.

Evaluation of Semi-supervised Learning for Classification of Protein Crystallization Imagery.

PubMed

Sigdel, Madhav; Dinç, İmren; Dinç, Semih; Sigdel, Madhu S; Pusey, Marc L; Aygün, Ramazan S

2014-03-01

In this paper, we investigate the performance of two wrapper methods for semi-supervised learning algorithms for classification of protein crystallization images with limited labeled images. Firstly, we evaluate the performance of semi-supervised approach using self-training with naïve Bayesian (NB) and sequential minimum optimization (SMO) as the base classifiers. The confidence values returned by these classifiers are used to select high confident predictions to be used for self-training. Secondly, we analyze the performance of Yet Another Two Stage Idea (YATSI) semi-supervised learning using NB, SMO, multilayer perceptron (MLP), J48 and random forest (RF) classifiers. These results are compared with the basic supervised learning using the same training sets. We perform our experiments on a dataset consisting of 2250 protein crystallization images for different proportions of training and test data. Our results indicate that NB and SMO using both self-training and YATSI semi-supervised approaches improve accuracies with respect to supervised learning. On the other hand, MLP, J48 and RF perform better using basic supervised learning. Overall, random forest classifier yields the best accuracy with supervised learning for our dataset.

Molecular proxies for climate maladaptation in a long-lived tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae).

PubMed

Jaramillo-Correa, Juan-Pablo; Rodríguez-Quilón, Isabel; Grivet, Delphine; Lepoittevin, Camille; Sebastiani, Federico; Heuertz, Myriam; Garnier-Géré, Pauline H; Alía, Ricardo; Plomion, Christophe; Vendramin, Giovanni G; González-Martínez, Santiago C

2015-03-01

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.

Could refuge theory and rivers acting as barriers explain the genetic variability distribution in the Atlantic Forest?

PubMed

Cazé, Ana Luiza R; Mäder, Geraldo; Nunes, Teonildes S; Queiroz, Luciano P; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F; Bonatto, Sandro L; Freitas, Loreta B

2016-08-01

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most species-rich ecoregions in the world. The historical origins of this richness and the evolutionary processes that produced diversification and promoted speciation in this ecosystem remain poorly understood. In this context, focusing on Passiflora contracta, an endemic species from the Atlantic Forest distributed exclusively at sea level along forest edges, this study aimed to characterize the patterns of genetic variability and explore two hypotheses that attempt to explain the possible causes of the genetic diversity in this region: the refuge and riverine barrier theories. We employed Bayesian methods combined with niche modeling to identify genetically homogeneous groups, to determine the diversification age, and identify long-term climate stability areas to species survival. The analyses were performed using molecular markers from nuclear and plastid genomes, with samples collected throughout the entire geographic distribution of the species, and comparisons with congeners species. The results indicated that populations were genetically structured and provided evidence of demographic stability. The molecular markers indicated the existence of a clear structure and the presence of five homogeneous groups. Interestingly, the separation of the groups coincides with the geographical locations of local rivers, corroborating the hypothesis of rivers acting as barriers to gene flow in this species. The highest levels of genetic diversity and the areas identified as having long-term climate stability were found in the same region reported for other species as a possible refuge area during the climatic changes of the Quaternary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular Proxies for Climate Maladaptation in a Long-Lived Tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae)

PubMed Central

Jaramillo-Correa, Juan-Pablo; Rodríguez-Quilón, Isabel; Grivet, Delphine; Lepoittevin, Camille; Sebastiani, Federico; Heuertz, Myriam; Garnier-Géré, Pauline H.; Alía, Ricardo; Plomion, Christophe; Vendramin, Giovanni G.; González-Martínez, Santiago C.

2015-01-01

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP–climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change. PMID:25549630

Smog Nitrogen and the Rapid Acidification of Forest Soil, San Bernardino Mountains, Southern California

PubMed Central

Wood, Yvonne A.; Fenn, Mark; Meixner, Thomas; Shouse, Peter J.; Breiner, Joan; Allen, Edith; Wu, Laosheng

2007-01-01

We report the rapid acidification of forest soils in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California. After 30 years, soil to a depth of 25 cm has decreased from a pH (measured in 0.01 M CaCl2) of 4.8 to 3.1. At the 50-cm depth, it has changed from a pH of 4.8 to 4.2. We attribute this rapid change in soil reactivity to very high rates of anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen (N) added to the soil surface (72 kg ha–1 year–1) from wet, dry, and fog deposition under a Mediterranean climate. Our research suggests that a soil textural discontinuity, related to a buried ancient landsurface, contributes to this rapid acidification by controlling the spatial and temporal movement of precipitation into the landsurface. As a result, the depth to which dissolved anthropogenic N as nitrate (NO3) is leached early in the winter wet season is limited to within the top ~130 cm of soil where it accumulates and increases soil acidity. PMID:17450295

Early maize agriculture and interzonal interaction in southern Peru.

PubMed

Perry, Linda; Sandweiss, Daniel H; Piperno, Dolores R; Rademaker, Kurt; Malpass, Michael A; Umire, Adán; de la Vera, Pablo

2006-03-02

Over the past decade, increasing attention to the recovery and identification of plant microfossil remains from archaeological sites located in lowland South America has significantly increased knowledge of pre-Columbian plant domestication and crop plant dispersals in tropical forests and other regions. Along the Andean mountain chain, however, the chronology and trajectory of plant domestication are still poorly understood for both important indigenous staple crops such as the potato (Solanum sp.) and others exogenous to the region, for example, maize (Zea mays). Here we report the analyses of plant microremains from a late preceramic house (3,431 +/- 45 to 3,745 +/- 65 14C bp or approximately 3,600 to 4,000 calibrated years bp) in the highland southern Peruvian site of Waynuna. Our results extend the record of maize by at least a millennium in the southern Andes, show on-site processing of maize into flour, provide direct evidence for the deliberate movement of plant foods by humans from the tropical forest to the highlands, and confirm the potential of plant microfossil analysis in understanding ancient plant use and migration in this region.

Charcoal Reflectance Reveals Early Holocene Boreal Deciduous Forests Burned at High Intensities

PubMed Central

Hudspith, Victoria A.; Belcher, Claire M.; Kelly, Ryan; Hu, Feng Sheng

2015-01-01

Wildfire size, frequency, and severity are increasing in the Alaskan boreal forest in response to climate warming. One of the potential impacts of this changing fire regime is the alteration of successional trajectories, from black spruce to mixed stands dominated by aspen, a vegetation composition not experienced since the early Holocene. Such changes in vegetation composition may consequently alter the intensity of fires, influencing fire feedbacks to the ecosystem. Paleorecords document past wildfire-vegetation dynamics and as such, are imperative for our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to future climate warming. For the first time, we have used reflectance measurements of macroscopic charcoal particles (>180μm) from an Alaskan lake-sediment record to estimate ancient charring temperatures (termed pyrolysis intensity). We demonstrate that pyrolysis intensity increased markedly from an interval of birch tundra 11 ky ago (mean 1.52%Ro; 485°C), to the expansion of trees on the landscape ∼10.5 ky ago, remaining high to the present (mean 3.54%Ro; 640°C) irrespective of stand composition. Despite differing flammabilities and adaptations to fire, the highest pyrolysis intensities derive from two intervals with distinct vegetation compositions. 1) the expansion of mixed aspen and spruce woodland at 10 cal. kyr BP, and 2) the establishment of black spruce, and the modern boreal forest at 4 cal. kyr BP. Based on our analysis, we infer that predicted expansion of deciduous trees into the boreal forest in the future could lead to high intensity, but low severity fires, potentially moderating future climate-fire feedbacks. PMID:25853712

Charcoal reflectance reveals early holocene boreal deciduous forests burned at high intensities.

PubMed

Hudspith, Victoria A; Belcher, Claire M; Kelly, Ryan; Hu, Feng Sheng

2015-01-01

Wildfire size, frequency, and severity are increasing in the Alaskan boreal forest in response to climate warming. One of the potential impacts of this changing fire regime is the alteration of successional trajectories, from black spruce to mixed stands dominated by aspen, a vegetation composition not experienced since the early Holocene. Such changes in vegetation composition may consequently alter the intensity of fires, influencing fire feedbacks to the ecosystem. Paleorecords document past wildfire-vegetation dynamics and as such, are imperative for our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to future climate warming. For the first time, we have used reflectance measurements of macroscopic charcoal particles (>180μm) from an Alaskan lake-sediment record to estimate ancient charring temperatures (termed pyrolysis intensity). We demonstrate that pyrolysis intensity increased markedly from an interval of birch tundra 11 ky ago (mean 1.52%Ro; 485°C), to the expansion of trees on the landscape ~10.5 ky ago, remaining high to the present (mean 3.54%Ro; 640°C) irrespective of stand composition. Despite differing flammabilities and adaptations to fire, the highest pyrolysis intensities derive from two intervals with distinct vegetation compositions. 1) the expansion of mixed aspen and spruce woodland at 10 cal. kyr BP, and 2) the establishment of black spruce, and the modern boreal forest at 4 cal. kyr BP. Based on our analysis, we infer that predicted expansion of deciduous trees into the boreal forest in the future could lead to high intensity, but low severity fires, potentially moderating future climate-fire feedbacks.

Evidence of late Palaeocene-early Eocene equatorial rain forest refugia in southern Western Ghats, India.

PubMed

Prasad, V; Farooqui, A; Tripathi, S K M; Garg, R; Thakur, B

2009-11-01

Equatorial rain forests that maintain a balance between speciation and extinction are hot-spots for studies of biodiversity. Western Ghats in southern India have gained attention due to high tropical biodiversity and endemism in their southern most area. We attempted to track the affinities of the pollen fl ora of the endemic plants of Western Ghat area within the fossil palynoflora of late Palaeocene-early Eocene (approximately 55-50 Ma) sedimentary deposits of western and northeastern Indian region. The study shows striking similarity of extant pollen with twenty eight most common fossil pollen taxa of the early Palaeogene. Widespread occurrences of coal and lignite deposits during early Palaeogene provide evidence of existence of well diversified rain forest community and swampy vegetation in the coastal low lying areas all along the western and northeastern margins of the Indian subcontinent. Prevalence of excessive humid climate during this period has been seen as a result of equatorial positioning of Indian subcontinent, superimposed by a long term global warming phase (PETM and EECO) during the early Palaeogene. The study presents clear evidence that highly diversifi ed equatorial rain forest vegetation once widespread in the Indian subcontinent during early Palaeogene times, are now restricted in a small area as a refugia in the southernmost part of the Western Ghat area. High precipitation and shorter periods of dry months seem to have provided suitable environment to sustain lineages of ancient tropical vegetation in this area of Western Ghats in spite of dramatic climatic changes subsequent to the post India-Asia collision and during the Quaternary and Recent times.

Phylogeny of the cycads based on multiple single-copy nuclear genes: congruence of concatenated parsimony, likelihood and species tree inference methods.

PubMed

Salas-Leiva, Dayana E; Meerow, Alan W; Calonje, Michael; Griffith, M Patrick; Francisco-Ortega, Javier; Nakamura, Kyoko; Stevenson, Dennis W; Lewis, Carl E; Namoff, Sandra

2013-11-01

Despite a recent new classification, a stable phylogeny for the cycads has been elusive, particularly regarding resolution of Bowenia, Stangeria and Dioon. In this study, five single-copy nuclear genes (SCNGs) are applied to the phylogeny of the order Cycadales. The specific aim is to evaluate several gene tree-species tree reconciliation approaches for developing an accurate phylogeny of the order, to contrast them with concatenated parsimony analysis and to resolve the erstwhile problematic phylogenetic position of these three genera. DNA sequences of five SCNGs were obtained for 20 cycad species representing all ten genera of Cycadales. These were analysed with parsimony, maximum likelihood (ML) and three Bayesian methods of gene tree-species tree reconciliation, using Cycas as the outgroup. A calibrated date estimation was developed with Bayesian methods, and biogeographic analysis was also conducted. Concatenated parsimony, ML and three species tree inference methods resolve exactly the same tree topology with high support at most nodes. Dioon and Bowenia are the first and second branches of Cycadales after Cycas, respectively, followed by an encephalartoid clade (Macrozamia-Lepidozamia-Encephalartos), which is sister to a zamioid clade, of which Ceratozamia is the first branch, and in which Stangeria is sister to Microcycas and Zamia. A single, well-supported phylogenetic hypothesis of the generic relationships of the Cycadales is presented. However, massive extinction events inferred from the fossil record that eliminated broader ancestral distributions within Zamiaceae compromise accurate optimization of ancestral biogeographical areas for that hypothesis. While major lineages of Cycadales are ancient, crown ages of all modern genera are no older than 12 million years, supporting a recent hypothesis of mostly Miocene radiations. This phylogeny can contribute to an accurate infrafamilial classification of Zamiaceae.

The historical biogeography of the freshwater knifefishes using mitogenomic approaches: a mesozoic origin of the Asian notopterids (Actinopterygii: Osteoglossomorpha).

PubMed

Inoue, Jun G; Kumazawa, Yoshinori; Miya, Masaki; Nishida, Mutsumi

2009-06-01

The continental distributions of freshwater fishes in the family Notopteridae (Osteoglossomorpha) across Africa, India, and Southeast Asia constitute a long standing and enigmatic problem of freshwater biogeography. The migrational pathway of the Asian notopterids has been discussed in light of two competing schemes: the first posits recent transcontinental dispersal while the second relies on distributions being shaped by ancient vicariance associated with plate-tectonic events. In this study, we determined complete mitochondrial DNA sequences from 10 osteoglossomorph fishes to estimate phylogenetic relationships using partitioned Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods and divergence dates of the family Notopteridae with a partitioned Bayesian approach. We used six species representing the major lineages of the Notopteridae and seven species from the remaining osteoglossomorph families. Fourteen more-derived teleosts, nine basal actinopterygians, two coelacanths, and one shark were used as outgroups. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that the African and Asian notopterids formed a sister group to each other and that these notopterids were a sister to a clade comprising two African families (Mormyridae and Gymnarchidae). Estimated divergence time between the African and Asian notopterids dated back to the early Cretaceous when India-Madagascar separated from the African part of Gondwanaland. Thus, estimated time of divergence based on the molecular evidence is at odds with the recent dispersal model. It can be reconciled with the geological and paleontological evidence to support the vicariance model in which the Asian notopterids diverged from the African notopterids in Gondwanaland and migrated into Eurasia on the Indian subcontinent from the Cretaceous to the Tertiary. However, we could not exclude an alternative explanation that the African and Asian notopterids diverged in Pangea before its complete separation into Laurasia and Gondwanaland, to which these two lineages were later confined, respectively.

Mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences support a Cretaceous origin of Columbiformes and a dispersal-driven radiation in the Paleocene .

PubMed

Pereira, Sergio L; Johnson, Kevin P; Clayton, Dale H; Baker, Allan J

2007-08-01

Phylogenetic relationships among genera of pigeons and doves (Aves, Columbiformes) have not been fully resolved because of limited sampling of taxa and characters in previous studies. We therefore sequenced multiple nuclear and mitochondrial DNA genes totaling over 9000 bp from 33 of 41 genera plus 8 outgroup taxa, and, together with sequences from 5 other pigeon genera retrieved from GenBank, recovered a strong phylogenetic hypothesis for the Columbiformes. Three major clades were recovered with the combined data set, comprising the basally branching New World pigeons and allies (clade A) that are sister to Neotropical ground doves (clade B), and the Afro-Eurasian and Australasian taxa (clade C). None of these clades supports the monophyly of current families and subfamilies. The extinct, flightless dodo and solitaires (Raphidae) were embedded within pigeons and doves (Columbidae) in clade C, and monophyly of the subfamily Columbinae was refuted because the remaining subfamilies were nested within it. Divergence times estimated using a Bayesian framework suggest that Columbiformes diverged from outgroups such as Apodiformes and Caprimulgiformes in the Cretaceous before the mass extinction that marks the end of this period. Bayesian and maximum likelihood inferences of ancestral areas, accounting for phylogenetic uncertainty and divergence times, respectively, favor an ancient origin of Columbiformes in the Neotropical portion of what was then Gondwana. The radiation of modern genera of Columbiformes started in the Early Eocene to the Middle Miocene, as previously estimated for other avian groups such as ratites, tinamous, galliform birds, penguins, shorebirds, parrots, passerine birds, and toucans. Multiple dispersals of more derived Columbiformes between Australasian and Afro-Eurasian regions are required to explain current distributions.

Establishment of a coastal fish in the Azores: recent colonisation or sudden expansion of an ancient relict population?

PubMed Central

Stefanni, S; Castilho, R; Sala-Bozano, M; Robalo, J I; Francisco, S M; Santos, R S; Marques, N; Brito, A; Almada, V C; Mariani, S

2015-01-01

The processes and timescales associated with ocean-wide changes in the distribution of marine species have intrigued biologists since Darwin's earliest insights into biogeography. The Azores, a mid-Atlantic volcanic archipelago located >1000 km off the European continental shelf, offers ideal opportunities to investigate phylogeographic colonisation scenarios. The benthopelagic sparid fish known as the common two-banded seabream (Diplodus vulgaris) is now relatively common along the coastline of the Azores archipelago, but was virtually absent before the 1990s. We employed a multiple genetic marker approach to test whether the successful establishment of the Azorean population derives from a recent colonisation from western continental/island populations or from the demographic explosion of an ancient relict population. Results from nuclear and mtDNA sequences show that all Atlantic and Mediterranean populations belong to the same phylogroup, though microsatellite data indicate significant genetic divergence between the Azorean sample and all other locations, as well as among Macaronesian, western Iberian and Mediterranean regions. The results from Approximate Bayesian Computation indicate that D. vulgaris has likely inhabited the Azores for ∼40 (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.5–83.6) to 52 (95% CI: 6.32–89.0) generations, corresponding to roughly 80–150 years, suggesting near-contemporary colonisation, followed by a more recent demographic expansion that could have been facilitated by changing climate conditions. Moreover, the lack of previous records of this species over the past century, together with the absence of lineage separation and the presence of relatively few private alleles, do not exclude the possibility of an even more recent colonisation event. PMID:26174025

Organellar Genomes from a ∼5,000-Year-Old Archaeological Maize Sample Are Closely Related to NB Genotype

PubMed Central

Pérez-Zamorano, Bernardo; Vallebueno-Estrada, Miguel; Martínez González, Javier; García Cook, Angel; Montiel, Rafael; Vielle-Calzada, Jean-Philippe

2017-01-01

The story of how preColumbian civilizations developed goes hand-in-hand with the process of plant domestication by Mesoamerican inhabitants. Here, we present the almost complete sequence of a mitochondrial genome and a partial chloroplast genome from an archaeological maize sample collected at the Valley of Tehuacán, México. Accelerator mass spectrometry dated the maize sample to be 5,040–5,300 years before present (95% probability). Phylogenetic analysis of the mitochondrial genome shows that the archaeological sample branches basal to the other Zea mays genomes, as expected. However, this analysis also indicates that fertile genotype NB is closely related to the archaeological maize sample and evolved before cytoplasmic male sterility genotypes (CMS-S, CMS-T, and CMS-C), thus contradicting previous phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial genomes from maize. We show that maximum-likelihood infers a tree where CMS genotypes branch at the base of the tree when including sites that have a relative fast rate of evolution thus suggesting long-branch attraction. We also show that Bayesian analysis infer a topology where NB and the archaeological maize sample are at the base of the tree even when including faster sites. We therefore suggest that previous trees suffered from long-branch attraction. We also show that the phylogenetic analysis of the ancient chloroplast is congruent with genotype NB to be more closely related to the archaeological maize sample. As shown here, the inclusion of ancient genomes on phylogenetic trees greatly improves our understanding of the domestication process of maize, one of the most important crops worldwide. PMID:28338960

Tales from Two Cores: Bayesian Re-Analyses of the Summit Lake and Blue Lakes Pollen Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, M.

2016-12-01

Pollen cores from Summit Lake and Blue Lakes in Humboldt Co., Nevada provide palaeoclimatic information for the last 2000 yearsin the NW Great Basin. Summit Lake is in the northern Black Rock Range (41.5 N -119.1 W) and is at an elevation of 1780 m. The Blue Lakes sit at an elevation of 2434 m in the southern Pine Forest Range (41.6 N -118.6 W). The distance between the two lakes is 33.5 km. The cores were originally taken to reconstruct the fire history in the NW Great Basin. In this study, stochastic climate histories are created using a Bayesian methodology as implemented in the Bclim program. This Bayesian approach takes: 1) a multivariate approach based on modern pollen analogs, 2) accounts for the non-linear and non-Gaussian relationship between the climate and the pollen proxy, and 3) accounts for the uncertainties in the radiocarbon record and climate histories. For both cores, the following climatic variables are reported for the last 2 kya: Mean Temperature of the Coldest month (MTCO), Growing Degree Days above 5 Centigrade (GDD5), the ratio of Actual to Potential Evapotranspiration (AET/PET). Because it was sequentially sampled,the Artemesia/Chenopodiaceae ratio (A/C), an indicator of wetness, and the Grasses/Shrubs (G/S) ratio, an indicator of thevegetation communities, is calculated for each section of the Summit Lake core. Bayesian changepoint analyses of the Summit Lake core indicates that there is no significant difference in the mean or variance of the A/C ratio for the last 2 kya cal BP, but there is a significant decrease in G/S ratio dating to circa 700 ya cal BP. At Summit Lake, a statistically significant decrease in the GDD5 occurs at 1.4-1.5 kya cal BP, and a significant increase in the GDD5 occurs for the last 200 ya cal BP. The GDD5 and MTCO for Blue Lakes has a significant increase at 600 ya cal BP, and afterwards decreases in the next century. The regional archaeological record will be discussed in light of these changes.

Plant management and biodiversity conservation in Náhuatl homegardens of the Tehuacán Valley, Mexico.

PubMed

Larios, Carolina; Casas, Alejandro; Vallejo, Mariana; Moreno-Calles, Ana Isabel; Blancas, José

2013-11-06

The Tehuacán Valley is one of the areas of Mesoamerica with the oldest history of plant management. Homegardens are among the most ancient management systems that currently provide economic benefits to people and are reservoirs of native biodiversity. Previous studies estimated that 30% of the plant richness of homegardens of the region are native plant species from wild populations. We studied in Náhuatl communities the proportion of native plant species maintained in homegardens, hypothesizing to find a proportion similar to that estimated at regional level, mainly plant resources maintained for edible, medicinal and ornamental purposes. We analysed the composition of plant species of homegardens and their similarity with surrounding Cloud Forest (CF), Tropical Rainforest (TRF), Tropical Dry forest (TDF), and Thorn-Scrub Forest (TSF). We determined density, frequency and biomass of plant species composing homegardens and forests through vegetation sampling of a total of 30 homegardens and nine plots of forests, and documented ethnobotanical information on use, management, and economic benefits from plants maintained in homegardens. A total of 281 plant species was recorded with 12 use categories, 115 ornamental, 92 edible, and 50 medicinal plant species. We recorded 49.8 ± 23.2 (average ± S.D.) woody plant species (shrubs and trees) per homegarden. In total, 34% species are native to the Tehuacán Valley and nearly 16% are components of the surrounding forests. A total of 176 species were cultivated through seeds, vegetative propagules or transplanted entire individual plants, 71 tolerated, and 23 enhanced. The highest species richness and diversity were recorded in homegardens from the CF zone (199 species), followed by those from the TRF (157) and those from the TDF (141) zones. Homegardens provide a high diversity of resources for subsistence of local households and significantly contribute to conservation of native biodiversity. The highest diversity was recorded in homegardens where the neighbouring forests had the least diversity, suggesting that management of homegardens aims at compensating scarcity of naturally available plant resources. Cultivated species were markedly more abundant than plants under other management forms. Diversity harboured and management techniques make homegardens keystones in strategies for regional biodiversity conservation.

Modeling decay rates of dead wood in a neotropical forest.

PubMed

Hérault, Bruno; Beauchêne, Jacques; Muller, Félix; Wagner, Fabien; Baraloto, Christopher; Blanc, Lilian; Martin, Jean-Michel

2010-09-01

Variation of dead wood decay rates among tropical trees remains one source of uncertainty in global models of the carbon cycle. Taking advantage of a broad forest plot network surveyed for tree mortality over a 23-year period, we measured the remaining fraction of boles from 367 dead trees from 26 neotropical species widely varying in wood density (0.23-1.24 g cm(-3)) and tree circumference at death time (31.5-272.0 cm). We modeled decay rates within a Bayesian framework assuming a first order differential equation to model the decomposition process and tested for the effects of forest management (selective logging vs. unexploited), of mode of death (standing vs. downed) and of topographical levels (bottomlands vs. hillsides vs. hilltops) on wood decay rates. The general decay model predicts the observed remaining fraction of dead wood (R2 = 60%) with only two biological predictors: tree circumference at death time and wood specific density. Neither selective logging nor local topography had a differential effect on wood decay rates. Including the mode of death into the model revealed that standing dead trees decomposed faster than downed dead trees, but the gain of model accuracy remains rather marginal. Overall, these results suggest that the release of carbon from tropical dead trees to the atmosphere can be simply estimated using tree circumference at death time and wood density.

A Bayesian Uncertainty Framework for Conceptual Snowmelt and Hydrologic Models Applied to the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, T.; Marshall, L.

2007-12-01

In many mountainous regions, the single most important parameter in forecasting the controls on regional water resources is snowpack (Williams et al., 1999). In an effort to bridge the gap between theoretical understanding and functional modeling of snow-driven watersheds, a flexible hydrologic modeling framework is being developed. The aim is to create a suite of models that move from parsimonious structures, concentrated on aggregated watershed response, to those focused on representing finer scale processes and distributed response. This framework will operate as a tool to investigate the link between hydrologic model predictive performance, uncertainty, model complexity, and observable hydrologic processes. Bayesian methods, and particularly Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, are extremely useful in uncertainty assessment and parameter estimation of hydrologic models. However, these methods have some difficulties in implementation. In a traditional Bayesian setting, it can be difficult to reconcile multiple data types, particularly those offering different spatial and temporal coverage, depending on the model type. These difficulties are also exacerbated by sensitivity of MCMC algorithms to model initialization and complex parameter interdependencies. As a way of circumnavigating some of the computational complications, adaptive MCMC algorithms have been developed to take advantage of the information gained from each successive iteration. Two adaptive algorithms are compared is this study, the Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithm, developed by Haario et al (2001), and the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm, developed by Haario et al (2006). While neither algorithm is truly Markovian, it has been proven that each satisfies the desired ergodicity and stationarity properties of Markov chains. Both algorithms were implemented as the uncertainty and parameter estimation framework for a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), developed by Moore (1985). We implement the modeling framework in Stringer Creek watershed in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (TCEF), Montana. The snowmelt-driven watershed offers that additional challenge of modeling snow accumulation and melt and current efforts are aimed at developing a temperature- and radiation-index snowmelt model. Auxiliary data available from within TCEF's watersheds are used to support in the understanding of information value as it relates to predictive performance. Because the model is based on lumped parameters, auxiliary data are hard to incorporate directly. However, these additional data offer benefits through the ability to inform prior distributions of the lumped, model parameters. By incorporating data offering different information into the uncertainty assessment process, a cross-validation technique is engaged to better ensure that modeled results reflect real process complexity.

Cryptic diversity in Afro-tropical lowland forests: The systematics and biogeography of the avian genus Bleda.

PubMed

Huntley, Jerry W; Voelker, Gary

2016-06-01

Recent investigations of distributional patterns of Afro-tropical lowland forest species have demonstrated to some degree our overall lack of understanding involving historical diversification patterns. Traditionally, researchers have relied upon two hypotheses, each of which views the lowland forest of Africa in differing roles. The Pleistocene Forest Refuge Hypothesis (PFRH) posits that biogeographic patterns of avian lowland species are explained via allopatric speciation during forest fragmentation cycles in the Pleistocene epoch (c. 1.8Ma-11,700Ka). The Montane Speciation Hypothesis (MSH) countered by suggesting that lowland forests are "evolutionary museums" where species, which originally evolved in montane forest refuge centers, remained without further diversification. Furthermore, investigations have largely regarded widespread, avian species which lack phenotypic variability as biogeographically "uninformative", with regards to historical biogeographic patterns. To test the tenets of these ideas, we investigated the systematics and biogeography of the genus Bleda, whose constituent species are restricted to lowland forest and are lacking in phenotypic variation. Using extracted DNA from 179 individuals, we amplified two mitochondrial genes and three nuclear loci and utilized Bayesian phylogenetic methods and molecular clock dating to develop a time-calibrated phylogeny of Bleda. We used LaGrange to develop an ancestral area reconstruction for the genus. Haplotype networks for three species were generated using Network. We recovered the four currently recognized species of Bleda, plus a monophyletic B. ugandae, a current sub-species which may warrant full species status. We found that the origins of the genus Bleda are estimated to be in the Upper Guinean forests of West Africa, dating to the Miocene (c. 7.5Ma), while the speciation events for the rest of the genus are dated to the Pliocene (c. 5-1.8Ma). Our analyses recovered discrete and highly differentiated geographic structuring of genetic diversity in West and Central Africa in three of five species, with many of the diversification events dating to the Pleistocene. The biogeographic patterns observed in Bleda can be explained through a combination of isolation via forest refuges during the Plio-Pleistocene and riverine barriers limiting secondary contact after forest expansion. We find evidence for the PFRH as a driver of intra-specific diversity, but conclude that it does not facilitate an explanation for speciation in the genus Bleda. The "evolutionary museum" concept furnished by the MSH is countered by our evidence of in situ diversification in the lowland forests of Africa. Additionally, our results provide strong evidence of the value of seemingly "uninformative" widespread avian taxa for revealing complex patterns of forest diversity. Overall, our study highlights that past researchers have both underestimated the amount of diversity found in lowland forests and failed to understand the complexity of historical forces shaping that diversity. Gaining a better understanding of lowland forest diversity and the historical factors which have shaped it will crucial in determining conservation tactics in the near future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phylogeography of the Western Lyresnake (Trimorphodon biscutatus): testing aridland biogeographical hypotheses across the Nearctic-Neotropical transition.

PubMed

Devitt, Thomas J

2006-12-01

The Western Lyresnake (Trimorphodon biscutatus) is a widespread, polytypic taxon inhabiting arid regions from the warm deserts of the southwestern United States southward along the Pacific versant of Mexico to the tropical deciduous forests of Mesoamerica. This broadly distributed species provides a unique opportunity to evaluate a priori biogeographical hypotheses spanning two major distinct biogeographical realms (the Nearctic and Neotropical) that are usually treated separately in phylogeographical analyses. I investigated the phylogeography of T. biscutatus using maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from across this species' range. Phylogenetic analyses recovered five well-supported clades whose boundaries are concordant with existing geographical barriers, a pattern consistent with a model of vicariant allopatric divergence. Assuming a vicariance model, divergence times between mitochondrial lineages were estimated using Bayesian relaxed molecular clock methods calibrated using geological information from putative vicariant events. Divergence time point estimates were bounded by broad confidence intervals, and thus these highly conservative estimates should be considered tentative hypotheses at best. Comparison of mtDNA lineages and taxa traditionally recognized as subspecies based on morphology suggest this taxon is comprised of multiple independent lineages at various stages of divergence, ranging from putative secondary contact and hybridization to sympatry of 'subspecies'.

Evidence and Implications of Frequent Fires in Ancient Shrub Tundra

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Higuera, P E; Brubaker, L B; Anderson, P M

2008-03-06

Understanding feedbacks between terrestrial and atmospheric systems is vital for predicting the consequences of global change, particularly in the rapidly changing Arctic. Fire is a key process in this context, but the consequences of altered fire regimes in tundra ecosystems are rarely considered, largely because tundra fires occur infrequently on the modern landscape. We present paleoecological data that indicate frequent tundra fires in northcentral Alaska between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago. Charcoal and pollen from lake sediments reveal that ancient birchdominated shrub tundra burned as often as modern boreal forests in the region, every 144 years on average (+/- 90more » s.d.; n = 44). Although paleoclimate interpretations and data from modern tundra fires suggest that increased burning was aided by low effective moisture, vegetation cover clearly played a critical role in facilitating the paleo-fires by creating an abundance of fine fuels. These records suggest that greater fire activity will likely accompany temperature-related increases in shrub-dominated tundra predicted for the 21st century and beyond. Increased tundra burning will have broad impacts on physical and biological systems as well as land-atmosphere interactions in the Arctic, including the potential to release stored organic carbon to the atmosphere.« less

Frequent Fires in Ancient Shrub Tundra: Implications of Paleorecords for Arctic Environmental Change

PubMed Central

Higuera, Philip E.; Brubaker, Linda B.; Anderson, Patricia M.; Brown, Thomas A.; Kennedy, Alison T.; Hu, Feng Sheng

2008-01-01

Understanding feedbacks between terrestrial and atmospheric systems is vital for predicting the consequences of global change, particularly in the rapidly changing Arctic. Fire is a key process in this context, but the consequences of altered fire regimes in tundra ecosystems are rarely considered, largely because tundra fires occur infrequently on the modern landscape. We present paleoecological data that indicate frequent tundra fires in northcentral Alaska between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago. Charcoal and pollen from lake sediments reveal that ancient birch-dominated shrub tundra burned as often as modern boreal forests in the region, every 144 years on average (+/− 90 s.d.; n = 44). Although paleoclimate interpretations and data from modern tundra fires suggest that increased burning was aided by low effective moisture, vegetation cover clearly played a critical role in facilitating the paleofires by creating an abundance of fine fuels. These records suggest that greater fire activity will likely accompany temperature-related increases in shrub-dominated tundra predicted for the 21st century and beyond. Increased tundra burning will have broad impacts on physical and biological systems as well as on land-atmosphere interactions in the Arctic, including the potential to release stored organic carbon to the atmosphere. PMID:18320025

[Land use pattern and its dynamic changes in Amur tiger distribution region].

PubMed

Li, Zhong-wen; Wu, Jian-guo; Kou, Xiao-jun; Tian, Yu; Wang, Tian-ming; Mu, Pu; Ge, Jian-ping

2009-03-01

Land use and land cover change has been the primary cause for the habitat loss and fragmentation in the distribution region of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica). Based on the spatiotemporal changes of land use and land cover in the distribution region, as well as their effects on the population dynamics of Amur tiger, this paper analyzed the development process and its characteristics of the main land use types (agricultural land, forest land, and construction land) in this region, with the land use change history being divided chronically into three distinctive periods, i.e., ancient times (prior to 1860), modern times (1860-1949), and contemporary times (after 1949). The results showed that the sporadic land use in ancient times had no significant effects on the survival of Amur tiger, while the extensive and intensive land use after the 1860s was mainly responsible for the decrease of Amur tiger population and its living space. Since 1949, the Amur tiger distribution region has been divided into two parts, i.e., Northeast China and Russia Far East. The differences in land use pattern, policy, and intensity between these two parts led to different survival status of Amur tiger. The key driving forces for the land use change in Amur tiger distribution region were human population increase, policy change, and increased productivity.

Dating the origin and dispersal of Human Papillomavirus type 16 on the basis of ancestral human migrations.

PubMed

Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Frati, Elena Rosanna; Martinelli, Marianna; Bianchi, Silvia; Amendola, Antonella; Ebranati, Erika; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Galli, Massimo; Lai, Alessia; Tanzi, Elisabetta

2016-04-01

A major limitation when reconstructing the origin and evolution of HPV-16 is the lack of reliable substitution rate estimates for the viral genes. On the basis of the hypothesis of human HPV-16 co-divergence, we estimated a mean evolutionary rate of 1.47×10(-7) (95% HPD=0.64-2.47×10(-7)) subs/site/year for the viral LCR region. The results of a Bayesian phylogeographical analysis suggest that the currently circulating HPV-16 most probably originated in Africa about 110 thousand years ago (Kya), before giving rise to four known geographical lineages: the Asian/European lineage, which most probably originated in Asia a mean 38 Kya, and the Asian/American and two African lineages, which probably respectively originated about 33 and 27 Kya. These data closely reflect current hypotheses concerning modern human expansion based on studies of mitochondrial DNA phylogeny. The correlation between ancient human migration and the present HPV phylogeny may be explained by the co-existence of modes of transmission other than sexual transmission. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Inferring spatial patterns and drivers of population divergence of Neolitsea sericea (Lauraceae), based on molecular phylogeography and landscape genomics.

PubMed

Cao, Ya-Nan; Wang, Ian J; Chen, Lu-Yao; Ding, Yan-Qian; Liu, Lu-Xian; Qiu, Ying-Xiong

2018-04-17

The relative roles of geography, climate and ecology in driving population divergence and (incipient) speciation has so far been largely neglected in studies addressing the evolution of East Asia's island flora. Here, we employed chloroplast and ribosomal DNA sequences and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) loci to investigate the phylogeography and drivers of population divergence of Neolitsea sericea. These data sets support the subdivision of N. sericea populations into the Southern and Northern lineages across the 'Tokara gap'. Two distinct sublineages were further identified for the Northern lineage of N. sericea from the RADseq data. RADseq was also used along with approximate Bayesian computation to show that the current distribution and differentiation of N. sericea populations resulted from a combination of relatively ancient migration and successive vicariant events that likely occurred during the mid to late Pleistocene. Landscape genomic analyses showed that, apart from geographic barriers, barrier, potentially local adaptation to different climatic conditions appears to be one of the major drivers for lineage diversification of N. sericea. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed Central

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-01-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences. PMID:12136032

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-07-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences.

Phylogeography of Arenaria balearica L. (Caryophyllaceae): evolutionary history of a disjunct endemic from the Western Mediterranean continental islands.

PubMed

Bobo-Pinilla, Javier; Barrios de León, Sara B; Seguí Colomar, Jaume; Fenu, Giuseppe; Bacchetta, Gianluigi; Peñas de Giles, Julio; Martínez-Ortega, María Montserrat

2016-01-01

Although it has been traditionally accepted that Arenaria balearica (Caryophyllaceae) could be a relict Tertiary plant species, this has never been experimentally tested. Nor have the palaeohistorical reasons underlying the highly fragmented distribution of the species in the Western Mediterranean region been investigated. We have analysed AFLP data (213) and plastid DNA sequences (226) from a total of 250 plants from 29 populations sampled throughout the entire distribution range of the species in Majorca, Corsica, Sardinia, and the Tuscan Archipelago. The AFLP data analyses indicate very low geographic structure and population differentiation. Based on plastid DNA data, six alternative phylogeographic hypotheses were tested using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). These analyses revealed ancient area fragmentation as the most probable scenario, which is in accordance with the star-like topology of the parsimony network that suggests a pattern of long term survival and subsequent in situ differentiation. Overall low levels of genetic diversity and plastid DNA variation were found, reflecting evolutionary stasis of a species preserved in locally long-term stable habitats.

The tale of a modern animal plague: Tracing the evolutionary history and determining the time-scale for foot and mouth disease virus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tully, Damien C.; Fares, Mario A.

2008-12-20

Despite significant advances made in the understanding of its epidemiology, foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) is among the most unexpected agricultural devastating plagues. While the disease manifests itself as seven immunologically distinct strains their origin, population dynamics, migration patterns and divergence times remain unknown. Herein we have assembled a comprehensive data set of gene sequences representing the global diversity of the disease and inferred the time-scale and evolutionary history for FMDV. Serotype-specific rates of evolution and divergence times were estimated using a Bayesian coalescent framework. We report that an ancient precursor FMDV gave rise to two major diversification eventsmore » spanning a relatively short interval of time. This radiation event is estimated to have taken place towards the end of the 17th and the beginning of the 18th century giving us the present circulating Euro-Asiatic and South African viral strains. Furthermore our results hint that Europe acted as a possible hub for the disease from where it successfully dispersed elsewhere via exploration and trading routes.« less

The “anomalous cedar trees” of Lake Ashi, Hakone Volcano, Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Y.

1984-01-01

On the bottom of Lake Ashi at Hakone, Japan, there stand great trees that, since ancient times, have been widely known as the "Anomalous Cedar Trees" of Ashi. It is not known why these trees grow on the bottom of the lake, and it remains one of the mysteries of Hakone. It was formerly thought that, at the time Lake Ashi was born, a great forest of cedar trees which was growing in the caldera of the volcano sank into the water. From radioactive carbon dating techniques, it is known that a steam explosion in the Kami Mountains created the caldera approximately 3,000 years ago. The age of the "Anomalous Cedars" is placed at approximately. 

Species-specific variation in nesting and postfledging resource selection for two forest breeding migrant songbirds.

PubMed

Jenkins, Julianna M A; Thompson, Frank R; Faaborg, John

2017-01-01

Habitat selection is a fundamental component of community ecology, population ecology, and evolutionary biology and can be especially important to species with complex annual habitat requirements, such as migratory birds. Resource preferences on the breeding grounds may change during the postfledging period for migrant songbirds, however, the degree to which selection changes, timing of change, and whether all or only a few species alter their resource use is unclear. We compared resource selection for nest sites and resource selection by postfledging juvenile ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) and Acadian flycatchers (Empidonax virescens) followed with radio telemetry in Missouri mature forest fragments from 2012-2015. We used Bayesian discrete choice modeling to evaluate support for local vegetation characteristics on the probability of selection for nest sites and locations utilized by different ages of postfledging juveniles. Patterns of resource selection variation were species-specific. Resource selection models indicated that Acadian flycatcher habitat selection criteria were similar for nesting and dependent postfledging juveniles and selection criteria diverged when juveniles became independent from adults. After independence, flycatcher resource selection was more associated with understory foliage density. Ovenbirds differed in selection criteria between the nesting and postfledging periods. Fledgling ovenbirds selected areas with higher densities of understory structure compared to nest sites, and the effect of foliage density on selection increased as juveniles aged and gained independence. The differences observed between two sympatric forest nesting species, in both the timing and degree of change in resource selection criteria over the course of the breeding season, illustrates the importance of considering species-specific traits and postfledging requirements when developing conservation efforts, especially when foraging guilds or prey bases differ. We recommend that postfledging habitat selection be considered in future conservation efforts dealing with Neotropical migrants and other forest breeding songbirds.

Multispecies genetic structure and hybridization in the Betula genus across Eurasia.

PubMed

Tsuda, Yoshiaki; Semerikov, Vladimir; Sebastiani, Federico; Vendramin, Giovanni Giuseppe; Lascoux, Martin

2017-01-01

Boreal and cool temperate forests are the major land cover of northern Eurasia, and information about continental-scale genetic structure and past demographic history of forest species is important from an evolutionary perspective and has conservation implications. However, although many population genetic studies of forest tree species have been conducted in Europe or Eastern Asia, continental-scale genetic structure and past demographic history remain poorly known. Here, we focus on the birch genus Betula, which is commonly distributed in boreal and cool temperate forests, and examine 129 populations of two tetraploid and four diploid species collected from Iceland to Japan. All individuals were genotyped at seven to 18 nuclear simple sequence repeats (nSSRs). Pairwise FST' among the six species ranged from 0.285 to 0.903, and genetic differentiation among them was clear. structure analysis suggested that Betula pubescens is an allotetraploid and one of the parental species was Betula pendula. In both species pairs of B. pendula and B. plathyphylla, and B. pubescens and B. ermanii, genetic diversity was highest in central Siberia. A hybrid zone was detected around Lake Baikal for eastern and western species pairs regardless of ploidy level. Approximate Bayesian computation suggested that the divergence of B. pendula and B. platyphylla occurred around the beginning of the last ice age (36 300 years BP, 95% CI: 15 330-92 700) and hybridization between them was inferred to have occurred after the last glacial maximum (1614 years BP, 95% CI: 561-4710), with B. pendula providing a higher contribution to hybrids. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential aboveground biomass in drought-prone forest used for rangeland pastoralism.

PubMed

Fensham, R J; Fairfax, R J; Dwyer, J M

2012-04-01

The restoration of cleared dry forest represents an important opportunity to sequester atmospheric carbon. In order to account for this potential, the influences of climate, soils, and disturbance need to be deciphered. A data set spanning a region defined the aboveground biomass of mulga (Acacia aneura) dry forest and was analyzed in relation to climate and soil variables using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. Mean annual rainfall had an overwhelmingly strong positive effect, with mean maximum temperature (negative) and soil depth (positive) also important. The data were collected after a recent drought, and the amount of recent tree mortality was weakly positively related to a measure of three-year rainfall deficit, and maximum temperature (positive), soil depth (negative), and coarse sand (negative). A grazing index represented by the distance of sites to watering points was not incorporated by the models. Stark management contrasts, including grazing exclosures, can represent a substantial part of the variance in the model predicting biomass, but the impact of management was unpredictable and was insignificant in the regional data set. There was no evidence of density-dependent effects on tree mortality. Climate change scenarios represented by the coincidence of historical extreme rainfall deficit with extreme temperature suggest mortality of 30.1% of aboveground biomass, compared to 21.6% after the recent (2003-2007) drought. Projections for recovery of forest using a mapping base of cleared areas revealed that the greatest opportunities for restoration of aboveground biomass are in the higher-rainfall areas, where biomass accumulation will be greatest and droughts are less intense. These areas are probably the most productive for rangeland pastoralism, and the trade-off between pastoral production and carbon sequestration will be determined by market forces and carbon-trading rules.

Landscape, Environmental and Social Predictors of Hantavirus Risk in São Paulo, Brazil

PubMed Central

Uriarte, Maria; Tambosi, Leandro Reverberi; Prado, Amanda; Pardini, Renata; D´Andrea, Paulo Sérgio; Metzger, Jean Paul

2016-01-01

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which are negative-sense RNA viruses in the family Bunyaviridae that are highly virulent to humans. Numerous factors modify risk of Hantavirus transmission and consequent HPS risk. Human-driven landscape change can foster transmission risk by increasing numbers of habitat generalist rodent species that serve as the principal reservoir host. Climate can also affect rodent population dynamics and Hantavirus survival, and a number of social factors can influence probability of HPS transmission to humans. Evaluating contributions of these factors to HPS risk may enable predictions of future outbreaks, and is critical to development of effective public health strategies. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to quantify associations between annual HPS incidence across the state of São Paulo, Brazil (1993–2012) and climate variables (annual precipitation, annual mean temperature), landscape structure metrics (proportion of native habitat cover, number of forest fragments, proportion of area planted with sugarcane), and social factors (number of men older than 14 years and Human Development Index). We built separate models for the main two biomes of the state (cerrado and Atlantic forest). In both biomes Hantavirus risk increased with proportion of land cultivated for sugarcane and HDI, but proportion of forest cover, annual mean temperature, and population at risk also showed positive relationships in the Atlantic forest. Our analysis provides the first evidence that social, landscape, and climate factors are associated with HPS incidence in the Neotropics. Our risk map can be used to support the adoption of preventive measures and optimize the allocation of resources to avoid disease propagation, especially in municipalities that show medium to high HPS risk (> 5% of risk), and aimed at sugarcane workers, minimizing the risk of future HPS outbreaks. PMID:27780250

Origins and recent radiation of Brazilian Eupatorieae (Asteraceae) in the eastern Cerrado and Atlantic Forest.

PubMed

Rivera, Vanessa Lopes; Panero, Jose L; Schilling, Edward E; Crozier, Bonnie S; Moraes, Marta Dias

2016-04-01

The remarkable diversity of Eupatorieae in the Brazilian flora has received little study, despite the tribe's very high levels of endemism and importance in the threatened Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspots. Eupatorieae are one of the largest tribes in Asteraceae with 14 of 19 recognized subtribes occurring in Brazil. We constructed the largest phylogeny of Brazilian Eupatorieae to date that sampled the nrITS and ETS, chloroplast ndhI and ndhF genes, and the ndhI-ndhG intergenic spacer for 183 species representing 77 of the 85 Brazilian genera of the tribe. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses showed that these species are not collectively monophyletic, so their distribution reflects multiple introductions into Brazil. A novel clade was found that includes 75% of the genera endemic to Brazil (Cerrado-Atlantic Forest Eupatorieae, "CAFE" clade). This radiation of at least 247 species concentrated in the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes of central eastern Brazil is <7 my old and exhibits several ecologically diverse life forms. Eight subtribes of Brazilian Eupatorieae (Ageratinae, Alomiinae, Ayapaninae, Critoniinae, Disynaphiinae, Eupatoriinae, Gyptidinae and Hebecliniinae) and 16 genera (Ageratum, Agrianthus, Austroeupatorium, Bejaranoa, Chromolaena, Critonia, Disynaphia, Grazielia, Hatschbachiella, Heterocondylus, Koanophyllon, Lasiolaena, Neocabreria, Praxelis, Stylotrichium, and Symphyopappus) were found to be polyphyletic. We attribute incongruities between the molecular phylogenetic results and the current classification of the tribe mostly to convergent evolution of morphological characters traditionally used in the classification of the tribe. We used these phylogenetic results to suggest changes to the classification of some subtribes and genera of Eupatorieae that occur in Brazil. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Presettlement and modern disturbance regimes in coast redwood forests: Implications for the conservation of old-growth stands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorimer, Craig G.; Porter, Daniel J.; Madej, Mary Ann; Stuart, John D.; Veirs, Stephen D.; Norman, Steven P.; O'Hara, Kevin L.; Libby, William J.

2009-01-01

Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens), a western North American conifer of ancient lineage, has a paradoxical combination of late-successional characteristics and strong adaptations to disturbance. Despite its shade tolerance and heavy dominance of the canopy on many sites, redwood saplings are uncommon in upland old-growth stands. Information needed to ensure the conservation of old-growth redwood forests has been limited. In this review paper, we integrate evidence on redwood biology with data on the historic and modern disturbance regimes to help clarify the degree to which key attributes of redwood forests may have been dependent upon periodic disturbance. Available evidence suggests that episodes of fire, flooding, and slope failure prior to European settlement were frequent but predominantly of low to moderate severity and extent, resulting in broadly uneven-aged forests. The majority of fires prior to European settlement were apparently of human origin. Frequency and severity of the major disturbance agents have been radically changed in modern times. Fires have been largely excluded, and flooding has been altered in ways that have often been detrimental to old-growth redwoods on alluvial terraces. However, because of the apparent anthropogenic origin of most presettlement fires, the long-term evolutionary role of fire for coast redwood is ecologically ambiguous. With fire exclusion, redwood possibly could be displaced to some extent on upland sites by increasing abundance of fire-sensitive competitors. Alternatively, redwood may be able to maintain dominance by vegetative sprouting and new seedling establishment on root-wad mounds, fallen logs, and on soil exposed by slope failure. Future research priorities are suggested that will help resolve some of the current ambiguities.

Primates decline rapidly in unprotected forests: evidence from a monitoring program with data constraints.

PubMed

Rovero, Francesco; Mtui, Arafat; Kitegile, Amani; Jacob, Philipo; Araldi, Alessandro; Tenan, Simone

2015-01-01

Growing threats to primates in tropical forests make robust and long-term population abundance assessments increasingly important for conservation. Concomitantly, monitoring becomes particularly relevant in countries with primate habitat. Yet monitoring schemes in these countries often suffer from logistic constraints and/or poor rigor in data collection, and a lack of consideration of sources of bias in analysis. To address the need for feasible monitoring schemes and flexible analytical tools for robust trend estimates, we analyzed data collected by local technicians on abundance of three species of arboreal monkey in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania (two Colobus species and one Cercopithecus), an area of international importance for primate endemism and conservation. We counted primate social groups along eight line transects in two forest blocks in the area, one protected and one unprotected, over a span of 11 years. We applied a recently proposed open metapopulation model to estimate abundance trends while controlling for confounding effects of observer, site, and season. Primate populations were stable in the protected forest, while the colobines, including the endemic Udzungwa red colobus, declined severely in the unprotected forest. Targeted hunting pressure at this second site is the most plausible explanation for the trend observed. The unexplained variability in detection probability among transects was greater than the variability due to observers, indicating consistency in data collection among observers. There were no significant differences in both primate abundance and detectability between wet and dry seasons, supporting the choice of sampling during the dry season only based on minimizing practical constraints. Results show that simple monitoring routines implemented by trained local technicians can effectively detect changes in primate populations in tropical countries. The hierarchical Bayesian model formulation adopted provides a flexible tool to determine temporal trends with full account for any imbalance in the data set and for imperfect detection.

Low probability of a dilution effect for Lyme borreliosis in Belgian forests.

PubMed

Ruyts, Sanne C; Landuyt, Dries; Ampoorter, Evy; Heylen, Dieter; Ehrmann, Steffen; Coipan, Elena C; Matthysen, Erik; Sprong, Hein; Verheyen, Kris

2018-04-22

An increasing number of studies have investigated the consequences of biodiversity loss for the occurrence of vector-borne diseases such as Lyme borreliosis, the most common tick-borne disease in the northern hemisphere. As host species differ in their ability to transmit the Lyme borreliosis bacteria Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. to ticks, increased host diversity can decrease disease prevalence by increasing the proportion of dilution hosts, host species that transmit pathogens less efficiently. Previous research shows that Lyme borreliosis risk differs between forest types and suggests that a higher diversity of host species might dilute the contribution of small rodents to infect ticks with B. afzelii, a common Borrelia genospecies. However, empirical evidence for a dilution effect in Europe is largely lacking. We tested the dilution effect hypothesis in 19 Belgian forest stands of different forest types along a diversity gradient. We used empirical data and a Bayesian belief network to investigate the impact of the proportion of dilution hosts on the density of ticks infected with B. afzelii, and identified the key drivers determining the density of infected ticks, which is a measure of human infection risk. Densities of ticks and B. afzelii infection prevalence differed between forest types, but the model indicated that the density of infected ticks is hardly affected by dilution. The most important variables explaining variability in disease risk were related to the density of ticks. Combining empirical data with a model-based approach supported decision making to reduce tick-borne disease risk. We found a low probability of a dilution effect for Lyme borreliosis in a north-western European context. We emphasize that under these circumstances, Lyme borreliosis prevention should rather aim at reducing tick-human contact rate instead of attempting to increase the proportion of dilution hosts. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

Estimating national forest carbon stocks and dynamics: combining models and remotely sensed information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallman, Thomas Luke; Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, Anthony; Williams, Mathew

2017-04-01

Forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle, storing significant amounts of carbon, split between living biomass and dead organic matter. The carbon budget of forests is the most uncertain component of the global carbon cycle - it is currently impossible to quantify accurately the carbon source/sink strength of forest biomes due to their heterogeneity and complex dynamics. It has been a major challenge to generate robust carbon budgets across landscapes due to data scarcity. Models have been used for estimating carbon budgets, but outputs have lacked an assessment of uncertainty, making a robust assessment of their reliability and accuracy challenging. Here a Metropolis Hastings - Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MH-MCMC) data assimilation framework has been used to combine remotely sensed leaf area index (MODIS), biomass (where available) and deforestation estimates, in addition to forest planting information from the UK's national forest inventory, an estimate of soil carbon from the Harmonized World Database (HWSD) and plant trait information with a process model (DALEC) to produce a constrained analysis with a robust estimate of uncertainty of the UK forestry carbon budget between 2000 and 2010. Our analysis estimates the mean annual UK forest carbon sink at -3.9 MgC ha-1 yr-1 with a 95 % confidence interval between -4.0 and -3.1 MgC ha-1yr-1. The UK national forest inventory (NFI) estimates the mean UK forest carbon sink to be between -1.4 and -5.5 MgC ha-1 yr-1. The analysis estimate for total forest biomass stock in 2010 is estimated at 229 (177/232) TgC, while the NFI an estimated total forest biomass carbon stock of 216 TgC. Leaf carbon area (LCA) is a key plant trait which we are able to estimate using our analysis. Comparison of median estimates for (LCA) retrieved from the analysis and a UK land cover map show higher and lower values for LCA are estimated areas dominated by needle leaf and broad leaf forests forest respectively, consistent with ecological expectations. Moreover, LCA is positively and negatively correlated with leaf-life span and allocation of photosynthate to foliage respectively, supported by field observations. This emergence of key plant traits and correlations between traits increases our confidence in the robustness of this analysis. Furthermore, this framework also allows us to search for additional emergent properties from the analysis such as spatial variation of retrieved drought tolerance. Finally our analysis is able to identify components of the carbon cycle with the largest uncertainty e.g. allocation of photosynthate to wood and wood residence times, providing targets for future observations (e.g. ESA's BIOMASS mission). Our Bayesian analysis system is ideally suited for assimilation of multiple biomass estimates and their associated uncertainties to reduce both the overall analysis uncertainty and bias in estimates biomass stocks.

Estimating national forest carbon stocks and dynamics: combining models and remotely sensed information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallman, Luke; Williams, Mathew

2016-04-01

Forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle, storing significant amounts of carbon, split between living biomass and dead organic matter. The carbon budget of forests is the most uncertain component of the global carbon cycle - it is currently impossible to quantify accurately the carbon source/sink strength of forest biomes due to their heterogeneity and complex dynamics. It has been a major challenge to generate robust carbon budgets across landscapes due to data scarcity. Models have been used but outputs have lacked an assessment of uncertainty, making a robust assessment of their reliability and accuracy challenging. Here a Metropolis Hastings - Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MH-MCMC) data assimilation framework has been used to combine remotely sensed leaf area index (MODIS), biomass (where available) and deforestation estimates, in addition to forest planting and clear-felling information from the UK's national forest inventory, an estimate of soil carbon from the Harmonized World Database (HWSD) and plant trait information with a process model (DALEC) to produce a constrained analysis with a robust estimate of uncertainty of the UK forestry carbon budget between 2000 and 2010. Our analysis estimates the mean annual UK forest carbon sink at -3.9 MgC ha-1yr-1 with a 95 % confidence interval between -4.0 and -3.1 MgC ha-1 yr-1. The UK national forest inventory (NFI) estimates the mean UK forest carbon sink to be between -1.4 and -5.5 MgC ha-1 yr-1. The analysis estimate for total forest biomass stock in 2010 is estimated at 229 (177/232) TgC, while the NFI an estimated total forest biomass carbon stock of 216 TgC. Leaf carbon area (LCA) is a key plant trait which we are able to estimate using our analysis. Comparison of median estimates for LCA retrieved from the analysis and a UK land cover map show higher and lower values for LCA are estimated areas dominated by needle leaf and broad leaf forests forest respectively, consistent with ecological expectations. Moreover, the retrieved LCA is positively correlated with leaf-life span and negatively correlated with allocation of photosynthate to foliage, supported by field observations. This emergence of key plant traits and correlations between traits increases our confidence in the robustness of this analysis. Furthermore, this framework also allows us to search for additional emergent properties from the analysis such as spatial variation of retrieved drought tolerance. Finally our analysis is able to identify components of the carbon cycle with the largest uncertainty providing targets for future observations (e.g. remotely sensed biomass). Our Bayesian analysis system is ideally suited for assimilation of multiple biomass estimates and their associated uncertainties to reduce both uncertainty in the state of the system but also process parameters (e.g. wood residence time).

Intra- and interspecific tree growth across a long altitudinal gradient in the Peruvian Andes.

PubMed

Rapp, Joshua M; Silman, Miles R; Clark, James S; Girardin, Cecile A J; Galiano, Darcy; Tito, Richard

2012-09-01

Tree growth response across environmental gradients is fundamental to understanding species distributional ecology and forest ecosystem ecology and to predict future ecosystem services. Cross-sectional patterns of ecosystem properties with respect to climatic gradients are often used to predict ecosystem responses to global change. Across sites in the tropics, primary productivity increases with temperature, suggesting that forest ecosystems will become more productive as temperature rises. However, this trend is confounded with a shift in species composition and so may not reflect the response of in situ forests to warming. In this study, we simultaneously studied tree diameter growth across the altitudinal ranges of species within a single genus across a geographically compact temperature gradient, to separate the direct effect of temperature on tree growth from that of species compositional turnover. Using a Bayesian state space modeling framework we combined data from repeated diameter censuses and dendrometer measurements from across a 1700-m altitudinal gradient collected over six years on over 2400 trees in Weinmannia, a dominant and widespread genus of cloud forest trees in the Andes. Within species, growth showed no consistent trend with altitude, but higher-elevation species had lower growth rates than lower-elevation species, suggesting that species turnover is largely responsible for the positive correlation between productivity and temperature in tropical forests. Our results may indicate a significant difference in how low- and high-latitude forests will respond to climate change, since temperate and boreal tree species are consistently observed to have a positive relationship between growth and temperature. If our results hold for other tropical species, a positive response in ecosystem productivity to increasing temperatures in the Andes will depend on the altitudinal migration of tree species. The rapid pace of climate change, and slow observed rates of migration, suggest a slow, or even initially negative response of ecosystem productivity to warming. Finally, this study shows how the observed scale of biological organization can affect conclusions drawn from studies of ecological phenomena across environmental gradients, and calls into question the common practice in tropical ecology of lumping species at higher taxonomic levels.

Simulating ectomycorrhiza in boreal forests: implementing ectomycorrhizal fungi model MYCOFON in CoupModel (v5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hongxing; Meyer, Astrid; Jansson, Per-Erik; Svensson, Magnus; Rütting, Tobias; Klemedtsson, Leif

2018-02-01

The symbiosis between plants and Ectomycorrhizal fungi (ECM) is shown to considerably influence the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes between the soil, rhizosphere, and plants in boreal forest ecosystems. However, ECM are either neglected or presented as an implicit, undynamic term in most ecosystem models, which can potentially reduce the predictive power of models.

In order to investigate the necessity of an explicit consideration of ECM in ecosystem models, we implement the previously developed MYCOFON model into a detailed process-based, soil-plant-atmosphere model, Coup-MYCOFON, which explicitly describes the C and N fluxes between ECM and roots. This new Coup-MYCOFON model approach (ECM explicit) is compared with two simpler model approaches: one containing ECM implicitly as a dynamic uptake of organic N considering the plant roots to represent the ECM (ECM implicit), and the other a static N approach in which plant growth is limited to a fixed N level (nonlim). Parameter uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian calibration in which the model outputs are constrained to current forest growth and soil C / N ratio for four forest sites along a climate and N deposition gradient in Sweden and simulated over a 100-year period.

The nonlim approach could not describe the soil C / N ratio due to large overestimation of soil N sequestration but simulate the forest growth reasonably well. The ECM implicit and explicit approaches both describe the soil C / N ratio well but slightly underestimate the forest growth. The implicit approach simulated lower litter production and soil respiration than the explicit approach. The ECM explicit Coup-MYCOFON model provides a more detailed description of internal ecosystem fluxes and feedbacks of C and N between plants, soil, and ECM. Our modeling highlights the need to incorporate ECM and organic N uptake into ecosystem models, and the nonlim approach is not recommended for future long-term soil C and N predictions. We also provide a key set of posterior fungal parameters that can be further investigated and evaluated in future ECM studies.

Integrated evaluation of the vulnerability to thermokarst disturbance and its implications for the regional carbon balance in boreal Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helene, G.; Lara, M. J.; McGuire, A. D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Bolton, W. R.; Romanovsky, V. E.

2017-12-01

Our capacity to project future ecosystem trajectories in northern permafrost regions depends on our ability to characterize complex interactions between climatic and ecological processes at play in the soil, the vegetation, and the atmosphere. We present a study that uses remote sensing analyses, field observations, and data synthesis to inform models for the prediction of ecosystem responses to climate change in the boreal zone of Alaska. Recent warming, altered precipitation and fire regimes are driving permafrost degradation, threatening to mobilize vast reservoirs of ancient carbon previously protected from decomposition. Although large scale, progressive, top-down permafrost thaw have been well studied and represented in high-latitude ecosystem models, the consequences of abrupt and local thermokarst disturbances (TK) are less well understood. To fill this gap, we conducted a detection analysis characterizing 60 years of land cover change in the Tanana Flats, a wetland complex subjected to TK disturbance in Interior Alaska, using aerial and satellite images. We observed a nonlinear loss of permafrost plateau forest associated with TK and driven by precipitation and forest fragmentation. The results of this analysis were integrated into the Alaska Thermokarst Model (ATM), a state-and-transition model that simulates land cover change associated with TK disturbance. Thermokarst-related land cover change was simulated from 2000 to 2100 across the Tanana Flats. By 2100, the model predicts a mean decrease of 7.4% (sd 1.8%) in permafrost plateau forests associated with an increase in TK fens and bogs. Transitions from permafrost plateau forests to TK wetlands are accompanied with changes in physical and biogeochemical processes affecting ecosystem carbon balance. We evaluated the consequences of TK disturbances on the regional carbon balance by coupling outputs from the ATM and from a process-based biogeochemical model. We used long-term field observations of vegetation and soil physical and biogeochemical attributes to develop new parameterizations for TK wetlands and permafrost plateau forest land cover types. Preliminary simulations from 2000 to 2100 estimate that the conversion of permafrost plateau forest to young TK wetlands would result in a 7.5% (sd 3.5%) decrease in Net Ecosystem Exchange.

Optimization of spectral bands for hyperspectral remote sensing of forest vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dmitriev, Egor V.; Kozoderov, Vladimir V.

2013-10-01

Optimization principles of accounting for the most informative spectral channels in hyperspectral remote sensing data processing serve to enhance the efficiency of the employed high-productive computers. The problem of pattern recognition of the remotely sensed land surface objects with the accent on the forests is outlined from the point of view of the spectral channels optimization on the processed hyperspectral images. The relevant computational procedures are tested using the images obtained by the produced in Russia hyperspectral camera that was installed on a gyro-stabilized platform to conduct the airborne flight campaigns. The Bayesian classifier is used for the pattern recognition of the forests with different tree species and age. The probabilistically optimal algorithm constructed on the basis of the maximum likelihood principle is described to minimize the probability of misclassification given by this classifier. The classification error is the major category to estimate the accuracy of the applied algorithm by the known holdout cross-validation method. Details of the related techniques are presented. Results are shown of selecting the spectral channels of the camera while processing the images having in mind radiometric distortions that diminish the classification accuracy. The spectral channels are selected of the obtained subclasses extracted from the proposed validation techniques and the confusion matrices are constructed that characterize the age composition of the classified pine species as well as the broad age-class recognition for the pine and birch species with the fully illuminated parts of their crowns.

Temperate radiations and dying embers of a tropical past: the diversification of Viburnum.

PubMed

Spriggs, Elizabeth L; Clement, Wendy L; Sweeney, Patrick W; Madriñán, Santiago; Edwards, Erika J; Donoghue, Michael J

2015-07-01

We used a near-complete phylogeny for the angiosperm clade Viburnum to assess lineage diversification rates, and to examine possible morphological and ecological factors driving radiations. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian approaches identified shifts in diversification rate and possible links to character evolution. We inferred the ancestral environment for Viburnum and changes in diversification dynamics associated with subsequent biome shifts. Viburnum probably diversified in tropical forests of Southeast Asia in the Eocene, with three subsequent radiations in temperate clades during the Miocene. Four traits (purple fruits, extrafloral nectaries, bud scales and toothed leaves) were statistically associated with higher rates of diversification. However, we argue that these traits are unlikely to be driving diversification directly. Instead, two radiations were associated with the occupation of mountainous regions and a third with repeated shifts between colder and warmer temperate forests. Early-branching depauperate lineages imply that the rare lowland tropical species are 'dying embers' of once more diverse lineages; net diversification rates in Viburnum likely decreased in these tropical environments after the Oligocene. We suggest that 'taxon pulse' dynamics might characterize other temperate plant lineages. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Evaluation of Semi-supervised Learning for Classification of Protein Crystallization Imagery

PubMed Central

Sigdel, Madhav; Dinç, İmren; Dinç, Semih; Sigdel, Madhu S.; Pusey, Marc L.; Aygün, Ramazan S.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the performance of two wrapper methods for semi-supervised learning algorithms for classification of protein crystallization images with limited labeled images. Firstly, we evaluate the performance of semi-supervised approach using self-training with naïve Bayesian (NB) and sequential minimum optimization (SMO) as the base classifiers. The confidence values returned by these classifiers are used to select high confident predictions to be used for self-training. Secondly, we analyze the performance of Yet Another Two Stage Idea (YATSI) semi-supervised learning using NB, SMO, multilayer perceptron (MLP), J48 and random forest (RF) classifiers. These results are compared with the basic supervised learning using the same training sets. We perform our experiments on a dataset consisting of 2250 protein crystallization images for different proportions of training and test data. Our results indicate that NB and SMO using both self-training and YATSI semi-supervised approaches improve accuracies with respect to supervised learning. On the other hand, MLP, J48 and RF perform better using basic supervised learning. Overall, random forest classifier yields the best accuracy with supervised learning for our dataset. PMID:25914518

Genomic data reveal ancient microendemism in forest scorpions across the California Floristic Province.

PubMed

Bryson, Robert W; Savary, Warren E; Zellmer, Amanda J; Bury, R Bruce; McCormack, John E

2016-08-01

The California Floristic Province (CFP) in western North America is a globally significant biodiversity hotspot. Elucidating patterns of endemism and the historical drivers of this diversity has been an important challenge of comparative phylogeography for over two decades. We generated phylogenomic data using ddRADseq to examine genetic structure in Uroctonus forest scorpions, an ecologically restricted and dispersal-limited organism widely distributed across the CFP north to the Columbia River. We coupled our genetic data with species distribution models (SDMs) to determine climatically suitable areas for Uroctonus both now and during the Last Glacial Maximum. Based on our analyses, Uroctonus is composed of two major genetic groups that likely diverged over 2 million years ago. Each of these groups itself contains numerous genetic groups that reveal a pattern of vicariance and microendemism across the CFP. Migration rates among these populations are low. SDMs suggest forest scorpion habitat has remained relatively stable over the last 21 000 years, consistent with the genetic data. Our results suggest tectonic plate rafting, mountain uplift, river drainage formation and climate-induced habitat fragmentation have all likely played a role in the diversification of Uroctonus. The intricate pattern of genetic fragmentation revealed across a temporal continuum highlights the potential of low-dispersing species to shed light on small-scale patterns of biodiversity and the underlying processes that have generated this diversity in biodiversity hotspots. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

History of Larix decidua Mill. (European larch) since 130 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Stefanie; Litt, Thomas; Sánchez-Goñi, Maria-Fernanda; Petit, Rémy J.

2015-09-01

Retrospective studies focussing on forest dynamics using fossil and genetic data can provide important keys to prepare forests for the future. In this study we analyse the impact of past climate and anthropogenic changes on Larix decidua Mill. (European larch) populations based on a new range-wide fossil compilation encompassing the last 130 ka and on recently produced genetic data (nuclear, mitochondrial). Results demonstrate that during the last 130 ka L. decidua persisted close to its current distribution range and colonized vast areas outside this range during the first two early Weichselian interstadials (c. 87-109 ka and c. 83-78 ka), reaching a distributional maxima in the north-central European lowlands. Some fossil sites point to notably rapid responses to some abrupt climate events (Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and Heinrich Events). Combined fossil and genetic data identify at least six MIS 2 refuges and postglacial recolonization pathways. The establishment of extant L. decidua forests dates back to the first two millennia of the Holocene (c. 11.5-9.5 ka) and the onset of anthropogenic impact was inferred since the late Neolithic (c. 6 ka), with major changes occurring since the Bronze Age (c. 4 ka). During the last 300 years human-induced translocations resulted in recent admixture of populations originating from separate refuges. Altogether, the results of this study provide valuable clues for developing sustainable conservation and management strategies targeting ancient genetic lineages and for studying evolutionary issues.

Pre-Historic and Recent Vicariance Events Shape Genetic Structure and Diversity in Endangered Lion-Tailed Macaque in the Western Ghats: Implications for Conservation

PubMed Central

Ram, Muthuvarmadam S.; Marne, Minal; Gaur, Ajay; Kumara, Honnavalli N.; Singh, Mewa; Kumar, Ajith; Umapathy, Govindhaswamy

2015-01-01

Genetic isolation of populations is a potent force that helps shape the course of evolution. However, small populations in isolation, especially in fragmented landscapes, are known to lose genetic variability, suffer from inbreeding depression and become genetically differentiated among themselves. In this study, we assessed the genetic diversity of lion-tailed macaques (Macaca silenus) inhabiting the fragmented landscape of Anamalai hills and examined the genetic structure of the species across its distributional range in the Western Ghats. We sequenced around 900 bases of DNA covering two mitochondrial regions–hypervariable region-I and partial mitochondrial cytochrome b–from individuals sampled both from wild and captivity, constructed and dated phylogenetic trees. We found that the lion-tailed macaque troops in the isolated forest patches in Anamalai hills have depleted mitochondrial DNA diversity compared to troops in larger and continuous forests. Our results also revealed an ancient divergence in the lion-tailed macaque into two distinct populations across the Palghat gap, dating to 2.11 million years ago. In light of our findings, we make a few suggestions on the management of wild and captive populations. PMID:26561307

Dispersal of thermophilic beetles across the intercontinental Arctic forest belt during the early Eocene.

PubMed

Brunke, Adam J; Chatzimanolis, Stylianos; Metscher, Brian D; Wolf-Schwenninger, Karin; Solodovnikov, Alexey

2017-10-11

Massive biotic change occurred during the Eocene as the climate shifted from warm and equable to seasonal and latitudinally stratified. Mild winter temperatures across Arctic intercontinental land bridges permitted dispersal of frost-intolerant groups until the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, while trans-Arctic dispersal in thermophilic groups may have been limited to the early Eocene, especially during short-lived hyperthermals. Some of these lineages are now disjunct between continents of the northern hemisphere. Although Eocene climate change may have been one of the most important drivers of these ancient patterns in modern animal and plant distributions, its particular events are rarely implicated or correlated with group-specific climatic requirements. Here we explored the climatic and geological drivers of a particularly striking Neotropical-Oriental disjunct distribution in the rove beetle Bolitogyrus, a suspected Eocene relict. We integrated evidence from Eocene fossils, distributional and climate data, paleoclimate, paleogeography, and phylogenetic divergence dating to show that intercontinental dispersal of Bolitogyrus ceased in the early Eocene, consistent with the termination of conditions required by thermophilic lineages. These results provide new insight into the poorly known and short-lived Arctic forest community of the Early Eocene and its surviving lineages.

Airborne and spaceborne radar images for geologic and environmental mapping in the Amazon rain forest, Brazil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurtak, James J.; Ford, John P.

1986-01-01

Spaceborne and airborne radar image of portions of the Middle and Upper Amazon basin in the state of Amazonas and the Territory of Roraima are compared for purposes of geological and environmental mapping. The contrasted illumination geometries and imaging parameters are related to terrain slope and surface roughness characteristics for corresponding areas that were covered by each of the radar imaging systems. Landforms range from deeply dissected mountain and plateau with relief up to 500 m in Roraima, revealing ancient layered rocks through folded residual mountains to deeply beveled pediplain in Amazonas. Geomorphic features provide distinct textural signatures that are characteristic of different rock associations. The principle drainages in the areas covered are the Rio Negro, Rio Branco, and the Rio Japura. Shadowing effects and low radar sensitivity to subtle linear fractures that are aligned parallel or nearly parallel to the direction of radar illumination illustrate the need to obtain multiple coverage with viewing directions about 90 degrees. Perception of standing water and alluvial forest in floodplains varies with incident angle and with season. Multitemporal data sets acquired over periods of years provide an ideal method of monitoring environmental changes.

Genetic diversity and population structure of Vriesea reitzii (Bromeliaceae), a species from the Southern Brazilian Highlands

PubMed Central

Soares, Luis Eduardo; Goetze, Márcia; Zanella, Camila M.; Bered, Fernanda

2018-01-01

Abstract The Southern Brazilian Highlands are composed by a mosaic of Mixed Ombrophilous Forest (MOF) and grassland formations, an interesting landscape for the study of population structure. We analyzed the genetic diversity within and among populations of the MOF-endemic bromeliad Vriesea reitzii by genotyping seven nuclear microsatellite loci in 187 individuals from six populations. We characterized levels of genetic diversity and assessed the genetic structure among populations. Vriesea reitzii populations showed high levels of genetic variation (number of alleles 28 - 43, allelic richness 3.589 - 5.531) and moderate levels of genetic differentiation (F ST = 0.123, R ST = 0.096). The high levels of genetic diversity may be explained by species life-history traits, such as habit and mating system. The moderate structure may be a product of the combination of ancient and contemporary gene flow, resulting from the expansion of the forest in the Holocene, and/or due to facilitated dispersal mediated by the MOF’s mosaic landscape. The genetic results indicated no imminent threat to this bromeliad. However, the species is highly associated with the MOF, putting landscape conservation at the center of conservation efforts for the species’ maintenance. PMID:29583153

Natural and anthropogenic drivers of cultural change on Easter Island: Review and new insights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rull, Valentí

2016-10-01

Easter Island (Rapa Nui) is a remote Pacific island known for its megalithic statues, the moai, built by an ancient culture which disappearance is still debated. Theories claiming for either self-destruction (ecocide) of this ancient culture or an eventual genocide after the European contact have been the most popular. Anthropogenic drivers have been traditionally preferred as causes of this major cultural shift, whereas climatic changes have been dismissed or underrated. However, the latest findings suggest that the topic is more complex than formerly thought and demand a more holistic perspective. This paper reviews the main paleoclimatic, paleoecological, archaeological and historical evidence of the major Rapanui cultural shift leading to the end of the moai-building civilization and uses an integrated approach to analyze its timing and potential causes. The disappearance of the ancient Eastern Island culture that erected the moai was a dramatic cultural shift with significant changes in lifestyle, socio-political organization, religious performance, art and also in the geographical settlement of the cultural core of the Rapanui society. The ancient society, represented by the so called Ancient Cult (or moai cult) was centered on the Rano Raraku crater, to the east of the island, whose soft volcanic rocks (tuff) where suitable for moai carving. This society was replaced by the Birdman-Cult society, based on Rano Kao, to the westernmost end of the island. The assumed date for such shift is uncertain ranging between mid-16th and late-18th centuries. It is suggested that such geographical change, as well as the associated societal transformations, may have been the result of a combination of climatic, ecological and cultural drivers and events. The latest paleoecological reconstructions show that the Rano Raraku catchment was deforested by AD 1450 and the lake inside dried out by AD 1550 owing to an intense climatic drought. This would have caused a landscape deterioration transforming the Raraku catchment into a wasteland devoid of freshwater and unsuitable for human life and the cultural flourishment that characterized the Ancient-Cult society. The drought lasted for about a century and a half and would have forced the Rapanuis to look for alternative freshwater sources. The only feasible option was the freshwater lake inside the then forested Rano Kao crater, where the ceremonial village of Orongo, the center of the Birdman Cult, was funded by AD 1600. The Kao crater is made of hard volcanic rocks (basalts) unsuitable for moai carving by the Neolithic Rapanui culture, unaware of metals, which would have contributed to the end of the moai-building phase. Deforestation and drought would have led to a general demographic decline. The shift from the rigid socio-political organization of the Ancient Cult to the more flexible system characteristic of the Birdman Cult could be viewed as a cultural adaptation to changing environmental conditions. The occurrence of a further, rather catastrophic, genocide caused by slave trading and epidemic diseases, occurred shortly after the European contact (AD 1722), has been documented historically. Therefore, the Rapanui civilization has undergone at least two cultural crises caused by natural and anthropogenic drivers. A complex synergistic scenario like that proposed here can conciliate multidisciplinary lines of evidence formerly used to defend more simplistic and apparently contradictory hypotheses of cultural change.

The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yifei

2018-03-01

Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.

Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes

PubMed Central

Bijak, Jakub; Bryant, John

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms. PMID:26902889

3D Sedimentological and geophysical studies of clastic reservoir analogs: Facies architecture, reservoir properties, and flow behavior within delta front facies elements of the Cretaceous Wall Creek Member, Frontier Formation, Wyoming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christopher D. White

2009-12-21

Significant volumes of oil and gas occur in reservoirs formed by ancient river deltas. This has implications for the spatial distribution of rock types and the variation of transport properties. A between mudstones and sandstones may form baffles that influence productivity and recovery efficiency. Diagenetic processes such as compaction, dissolution, and cementation can also alter flow properties. A better understanding of these properties and improved methods will allow improved reservoir development planning and increased recovery of oil and gas from deltaic reservoirs. Surface exposures of ancient deltaic rocks provide a high-resolution view of variability. Insights gleaned from these exposures canmore » be used to model analogous reservoirs, for which data is sparser. The Frontier Formation in central Wyoming provides an opportunity for high-resolution models. The same rocks exposed in the Tisdale anticline are productive in nearby oil fields. Kilometers of exposure are accessible, and bedding-plane exposures allow use of high-resolution ground-penetrating radar. This study combined geologic interpretations, maps, vertical sections, core data, and ground-penetrating radar to construct geostatistical and flow models. Strata-conforming grids were use to reproduce the observed geometries. A new Bayesian method integrates outcrop, core, and radar amplitude and phase data. The proposed method propagates measurement uncertainty and yields an ensemble of plausible models for calcite concretions. These concretions affect flow significantly. Models which integrate more have different flow responses from simpler models, as demonstrated an exhaustive two-dimensional reference image and in three dimensions. This method is simple to implement within widely available geostatistics packages. Significant volumes of oil and gas occur in reservoirs that are inferred to have been formed by ancient river deltas. This geologic setting has implications for the spatial distribution of rock types (\\Eg sandstones and mudstones) and the variation of transport properties (\\Eg permeability and porosity) within bodies of a particular rock type. Both basin-wide processes such as sea-level change and the autocyclicity of deltaic processes commonly cause deltaic reservoirs to have large variability in rock properties; in particular, alternations between mudstones and sandstones may form baffles and trends in rock body permeability can influence productivity and recovery efficiency. In addition, diagenetic processes such as compaction, dissolution, and cementation can alter the spatial pattern of flow properties. A better understanding of these properties, and improved methods to model the properties and their effects, will allow improved reservoir development planning and increased recovery of oil and gas from deltaic reservoirs. Surface exposures of ancient deltaic rocks provide a high resolution, low uncertainty view of subsurface variability. Patterns and insights gleaned from these exposures can be used to model analogous reservoirs, for which data is much sparser. This approach is particularly attractive when reservoir formations are exposed at the surface. The Frontier Formation in central Wyoming provides an opportunity for high resolution characterization. The same rocks exposed in the vicinity of the Tisdale anticline are productive in nearby oil fields, including Salt Creek. Many kilometers of good-quality exposure are accessible, and the common bedding-plane exposures allow use of shallow-penetration, high-resolution electromagnetic methods known as ground-penetrating radar. This study combined geologic interpretations, maps, vertical sections, core data, and ground-penetrating radar to construct high-resolution geostatistical and flow models for the Wall Creek Member of the Frontier Formation. Stratal-conforming grids were use to reproduce the progradational and aggradational geometries observed in outcrop and radar data. A new, Bayesian method integrates outcrop--derived statistics, core observations of concretions, and radar amplitude and phase data. The proposed method consistently propagates measurement uncertainty through the model-building process, and yields an ensemble of plausible models for diagenetic calcite concretions. These concretions have a statistically significant on flow. Furthermore, neither geostatistical data from the outcrops nor geophysical data from radar is sufficient: models which integrate these data have significantly different flow responses. This was demonstrated both for an exhaustive two-dimensional reference image and in three dimensions, using flow simulations. This project wholly supported one PhD student and part of the education of an additional MS and PhD student. It helped to sponsor 6 refereed articles and 8 conference or similar presentations.« less

Improving predictions of carbon fluxes in the tropics undre climatic changes using ED2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Uriarte, M.

2016-12-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in the exchange of carbon between land and atmosphere, highlighting the urgency of understanding the effects of climate change on these ecosystems. The most optimistic predictions of climate models indicate that global mean temperatures will increase by up to 2 0C with some tropical regions experiencing extreme heat. Drought and heat-induced tree mortality will accelerate the release of carbon to the atmosphere creating a positive feedback that greatly exacerbates global warming. Thus, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests may become net sources, rather than sinks, of carbon. Earth system models have not reached a consensus on the magnitude and direction of climate change impacts on tropical forests, calling into question the reliability of their predictions. Thus, there is an immediate need to improve the representation of tropical forests in earth system models to make robust predictions. The goal of our study is to quantify the responses of tropical forests to climate variability and improve the predictive capacity of terrestrial ecosystem models. We have collected species-specific physiological and functional trait data from 144 tree species in a Puerto Rican rainforest to parameterize the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). The large amount of data generated by this research will lead to better validation and lowering the uncertainty in future model predictions. To best represent the forest landscape in ED2, all the trees have been assigned to three plant functional types (PFTs): early, mid, and late successional species. Trait data for each PFT were synthesized in a Bayesian meta-analytical model and posterior distributions of traits were used to parameterize the ED2 model. Model predictions show that biomass production of late successional PFT (118.89 ton/ha) was consistently higher than mid (71.33 ton/ha) and early (13.21 ton/ha) PFTs. However, mid successional PFT had the highest contributions to NPP for the modeled period. Tropical forest biomass reduces by 30% under future drought scenario turning the tropics into carbon sources. Ensemble runs were conducted to construct error estimates around model forecasts, to compare modeled and observed aboveground biomass, and to identify which processes and tree species need further study.

The last forests in Greenland, and the age of the ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funder, Svend; Schmidt, Astrid M. Z.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Willerslev, Eske

2014-05-01

Recently ancient DNA (aDNA) studies of the basal ice in the Camp Century ice core, northern Greenland, have shown that mixed coniferous-deciduous forest grew here before the area was invaded and permanently covered by the ice sheet. The coring site is situated only 100 km from the present ice margin and more than 500 km from the ice divide, indicating that since this last inception the northern part of the ice sheet never receded more than 100 km from its present margin. Dating of the basal ice and obtaining an age for the forest and for the beginning of the ice sheet's permanency has been attempted by analyzing for optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), meteoric 10Be/36Cl cosmogenic nuclides, 234U/238U recoil. These methods all provide only minimum ages and show that the forest at Cap Century is older than 500 ka. Comparison with other Pleistocene "forest sites" in Greenland - the Kap København Formation in northernmost Greenland, the DYE-3 ice core in the south, the ODP boring 646 south of Greenland, as well as results from basal ice in the GRIP ice core - extends the minimum age to c. 1 ma. The maximum age is provided by the Kap København Formation, which must be older - or contemporaneous. The formation has recently been confirmed to date within the interval 2-2.5 ma, with a preferred age of 2.3-2.4 ma. Surprisingly, application of the molecular clock of insect COI sequences on the Camp Century aDNA now seem to push the minimum age just as far back - to 2.4 ma, suggesting that the timberline boreal forest at Kap København is contemporaneous with the mixed forest at Camp Century, 600 km to the south. From this we conclude that the northern ice sheet dome, which today contains 85% of the total ice sheet volume, has remained within 100 km of its present margin for at least 1 ma, and possibly may go back as far as 2.4 ma. The ice sheet has therefore survived both interglacials and "super interglacials" that were both warmer and longer than the present. This may give us some hope for the future.

Plant management and biodiversity conservation in Náhuatl homegardens of the Tehuacán Valley, Mexico

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The Tehuacán Valley is one of the areas of Mesoamerica with the oldest history of plant management. Homegardens are among the most ancient management systems that currently provide economic benefits to people and are reservoirs of native biodiversity. Previous studies estimated that 30% of the plant richness of homegardens of the region are native plant species from wild populations. We studied in Náhuatl communities the proportion of native plant species maintained in homegardens, hypothesizing to find a proportion similar to that estimated at regional level, mainly plant resources maintained for edible, medicinal and ornamental purposes. Methods We analysed the composition of plant species of homegardens and their similarity with surrounding Cloud Forest (CF), Tropical Rainforest (TRF), Tropical Dry forest (TDF), and Thorn-Scrub Forest (TSF). We determined density, frequency and biomass of plant species composing homegardens and forests through vegetation sampling of a total of 30 homegardens and nine plots of forests, and documented ethnobotanical information on use, management, and economic benefits from plants maintained in homegardens. Results A total of 281 plant species was recorded with 12 use categories, 115 ornamental, 92 edible, and 50 medicinal plant species. We recorded 49.8 ± 23.2 (average ± S.D.) woody plant species (shrubs and trees) per homegarden. In total, 34% species are native to the Tehuacán Valley and nearly 16% are components of the surrounding forests. A total of 176 species were cultivated through seeds, vegetative propagules or transplanted entire individual plants, 71 tolerated, and 23 enhanced. The highest species richness and diversity were recorded in homegardens from the CF zone (199 species), followed by those from the TRF (157) and those from the TDF (141) zones. Conclusion Homegardens provide a high diversity of resources for subsistence of local households and significantly contribute to conservation of native biodiversity. The highest diversity was recorded in homegardens where the neighbouring forests had the least diversity, suggesting that management of homegardens aims at compensating scarcity of naturally available plant resources. Cultivated species were markedly more abundant than plants under other management forms. Diversity harboured and management techniques make homegardens keystones in strategies for regional biodiversity conservation. PMID:24195962

Constraining ecosystem processes from tower fluxes and atmospheric profiles.

PubMed

Hill, T C; Williams, M; Woodward, F I; Moncrieff, J B

2011-07-01

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) provides an important link between the scales and processes resolved by global atmospheric sampling/modeling and site-based flux measurements. The PBL is in direct contact with the land surface, both driving and responding to ecosystem processes. Measurements within the PBL (e.g., by radiosondes, aircraft profiles, and flask measurements) have a footprint, and thus an integrating scale, on the order of 1-100 km. We use the coupled atmosphere-biosphere model (CAB) and a Bayesian data assimilation framework to investigate the amount of biosphere process information that can be inferred from PBL measurements. We investigate the information content of PBL measurements in a two-stage study. First, we demonstrate consistency between the coupled model (CAB) and measurements, by comparing the model to eddy covariance flux tower measurements (i.e., water and carbon fluxes) and also PBL scalar profile measurements (i.e., water, carbon dioxide, and temperature) from Canadian boreal forest. Second, we use the CAB model in a set of Bayesian inversions experiments using synthetic data for a single day. In the synthetic experiment, leaf area and respiration were relatively well constrained, whereas surface albedo and plant hydraulic conductance were only moderately constrained. Finally, the abilities of the PBL profiles and the eddy covariance data to constrain the parameters were largely similar and only slightly lower than the combination of both observations.

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: A study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this study, a Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm was used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The DREAM is a multi-chainmore » method and uses differential evolution technique for chain movement, allowing it to be efficiently applied to high-dimensional problems, and can reliably estimate heavy-tailed and multimodal distributions that are difficult for single-chain schemes using a Gaussian proposal distribution. The results were evaluated against the popular Adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. DREAM indicated that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identified one mode. The calibration of DREAM resulted in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the AM. DREAM provides means for a good exploration of the posterior distributions of model parameters. Lastly, it reduces the risk of false convergence to a local optimum and potentially improves the predictive performance of the calibrated model.« less

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: A study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

DOE PAGES

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; ...

2017-02-22

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this study, a Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm was used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The DREAM is a multi-chainmore » method and uses differential evolution technique for chain movement, allowing it to be efficiently applied to high-dimensional problems, and can reliably estimate heavy-tailed and multimodal distributions that are difficult for single-chain schemes using a Gaussian proposal distribution. The results were evaluated against the popular Adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. DREAM indicated that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identified one mode. The calibration of DREAM resulted in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the AM. DREAM provides means for a good exploration of the posterior distributions of model parameters. Lastly, it reduces the risk of false convergence to a local optimum and potentially improves the predictive performance of the calibrated model.« less

Data-driven confounder selection via Markov and Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Häggström, Jenny

2018-06-01

To unbiasedly estimate a causal effect on an outcome unconfoundedness is often assumed. If there is sufficient knowledge on the underlying causal structure then existing confounder selection criteria can be used to select subsets of the observed pretreatment covariates, X, sufficient for unconfoundedness, if such subsets exist. Here, estimation of these target subsets is considered when the underlying causal structure is unknown. The proposed method is to model the causal structure by a probabilistic graphical model, for example, a Markov or Bayesian network, estimate this graph from observed data and select the target subsets given the estimated graph. The approach is evaluated by simulation both in a high-dimensional setting where unconfoundedness holds given X and in a setting where unconfoundedness only holds given subsets of X. Several common target subsets are investigated and the selected subsets are compared with respect to accuracy in estimating the average causal effect. The proposed method is implemented with existing software that can easily handle high-dimensional data, in terms of large samples and large number of covariates. The results from the simulation study show that, if unconfoundedness holds given X, this approach is very successful in selecting the target subsets, outperforming alternative approaches based on random forests and LASSO, and that the subset estimating the target subset containing all causes of outcome yields smallest MSE in the average causal effect estimation. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Global sensitivity analysis, probabilistic calibration, and predictive assessment for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon model

DOE PAGES

Safta, C.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Sargsyan, Khachik; ...

2015-07-01

In this paper we propose a probabilistic framework for an uncertainty quantification (UQ) study of a carbon cycle model and focus on the comparison between steady-state and transient simulation setups. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study indicates the parameters and parameter couplings that are important at different times of the year for quantities of interest (QoIs) obtained with the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model. We then employ a Bayesian approach and a statistical model error term to calibrate the parameters of DALEC using net ecosystem exchange (NEE) observations at the Harvard Forest site. The calibration results are employedmore » in the second part of the paper to assess the predictive skill of the model via posterior predictive checks.« less

IMNN: Information Maximizing Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charnock, Tom; Lavaux, Guilhem; Wandelt, Benjamin D.

2018-04-01

This software trains artificial neural networks to find non-linear functionals of data that maximize Fisher information: information maximizing neural networks (IMNNs). As compressing large data sets vastly simplifies both frequentist and Bayesian inference, important information may be inadvertently missed. Likelihood-free inference based on automatically derived IMNN summaries produces summaries that are good approximations to sufficient statistics. IMNNs are robustly capable of automatically finding optimal, non-linear summaries of the data even in cases where linear compression fails: inferring the variance of Gaussian signal in the presence of noise, inferring cosmological parameters from mock simulations of the Lyman-α forest in quasar spectra, and inferring frequency-domain parameters from LISA-like detections of gravitational waveforms. In this final case, the IMNN summary outperforms linear data compression by avoiding the introduction of spurious likelihood maxima.

Early evolution and ecology of camouflage in insects

PubMed Central

Pérez-de la Fuente, Ricardo; Delclòs, Xavier; Peñalver, Enrique; Speranza, Mariela; Wierzchos, Jacek; Ascaso, Carmen; Engel, Michael S.

2012-01-01

Taxa within diverse lineages select and transport exogenous materials for the purposes of camouflage. This adaptive behavior also occurs in insects, most famously in green lacewing larvae who nestle the trash among setigerous cuticular processes, known as trash-carrying, rendering them nearly undetectable to predators and prey, as well as forming a defensive shield. We report an exceptional discovery of a green lacewing larva in Early Cretaceous amber from Spain with specialized cuticular processes forming a dorsal basket that carry a dense trash packet. The trash packet is composed of trichomes of gleicheniacean ferns, which highlight the presence of wildfires in this early forest ecosystem. This discovery provides direct evidence of an early acquisition of a sophisticated behavioral suite in stasis for over 110 million years and an ancient plant–insect interaction. PMID:23236135

Early evolution and ecology of camouflage in insects.

PubMed

Pérez-de la Fuente, Ricardo; Delclòs, Xavier; Peñalver, Enrique; Speranza, Mariela; Wierzchos, Jacek; Ascaso, Carmen; Engel, Michael S

2012-12-26

Taxa within diverse lineages select and transport exogenous materials for the purposes of camouflage. This adaptive behavior also occurs in insects, most famously in green lacewing larvae who nestle the trash among setigerous cuticular processes, known as trash-carrying, rendering them nearly undetectable to predators and prey, as well as forming a defensive shield. We report an exceptional discovery of a green lacewing larva in Early Cretaceous amber from Spain with specialized cuticular processes forming a dorsal basket that carry a dense trash packet. The trash packet is composed of trichomes of gleicheniacean ferns, which highlight the presence of wildfires in this early forest ecosystem. This discovery provides direct evidence of an early acquisition of a sophisticated behavioral suite in stasis for over 110 million years and an ancient plant-insect interaction.

Precolombian settlements in French Guiana : geoarchaeological approach toward a new understanding of the human impact on landscape.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brancier, J.; Cammas, C.; Todisco, D.; Fouache, E.

2012-04-01

Recent archaeological research in French Guiana conducted by INRAP (Institut National de Recherches Archéologiques Préventives), specifically in the Couac Program (Cirad, Inra, Inrap) revealed precolombian settlements on different geomorphic contexts like coastal and fluvial areas, as is seen in Brazil, but also what seems to be quite a dense occupation on higher grounds (mounds). Most of the times, the excavation shows cultural remains like pottery, archaeological pits and ditches, as well as sediments that are described by the archaeologists as "thick and dark-coloured layers". In Brazil, dark layers found in archaeological sites are called Terra Preta do Indio or Amazonian Dark Earth (ADE), and their study is thought necessary to explain and understand ancient human settlement. In Brazil, geoarchaeological methods as well as chemical analyses, pedology and micromorphology helped to describe ADE and understand their archaeological potential and characteristics. In order to better understand the French Guiana dark layers, we studied two sites from the estuarine zone of the lower Maroni River (Surinam border) (Chemin Saint Louis and Balaté at Saint Laurent du Maroni), and two ring-ditched hilltop sites, on ferralsols, in the interfluvial forest area ("Montagnes Couronnées" in French) (MC 87 et 88, near Regina). Regarding Brazilians research on ADE, we described for the first time the archaeological stratigraphy of French Guiana ancient settlement using a geoarchaeological approach combining biogeochemistry, pedology in correlation with micromorphological analyses. Our first results show that dark layers from archaeological sites studied are very different from natural soils underneath in the estuarine zone. Although, the pH is quite low, micromorphological analyses show clay coatings in the alluvial terrace before human settlement. These analyses also show more organic matter and charcoals in the archaeological layers than beneath, and very large amounts of phytolithes, that give to botanists a new way of research. Due to either the acid context and / or to the ancient lifestyle, very few bones were found. We also found geochemical and micromorphological differences between the sites in the estuarine zone or in forest area. First geoarchaeological results give information about the nature of the sites, and suggest that French Guiana dark layers have original properties. We therefore suggest, in accordance with the archaeologist team, to call them Guianan Dark Earth (GDE). If we compare the GDE of this study with data from bibliographic review on ADE, micromorphological analyses show that GDE presents less anthropogenic components than ADE. Chemical analyses also show differences between GDE and ADE, like pH and available nutrients, lower in estuarine GDE. These differences suggested that GDE can have different properties than those of ADE, but are nonetheless part of the archaeological soils of the Amazonian basin.

Delimiting cryptic pathogen species causing apple Valsa canker with multilocus data

PubMed Central

Wang, Xuli; Zang, Rui; Yin, Zhiyuan; Kang, Zhensheng; Huang, Lili

2014-01-01

Fungal diseases are posing tremendous threats to global economy and food safety. Among them, Valsa canker, caused by fungi of Valsa and their Cytospora anamorphs, has been a serious threat to fruit and forest trees and is one of the most destructive diseases of apple in East Asia, particularly. Accurate and robust delimitation of pathogen species is not only essential for the development of effective disease control programs, but also will advance our understanding of the emergence of plant diseases. However, species delimitation is especially difficult in Valsa because of the high variability of morphological traits and in many cases the lack of the teleomorph. In this study, we delimitated species boundary for pathogens causing apple Valsa canker with a multifaceted approach. Based on three independent loci, the internal transcribed spacer (ITS), β-tubulin (Btu), and translation elongation factor-1 alpha (EF1α), we inferred gene trees with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, estimated species tree with Bayesian multispecies coalescent approaches, and validated species tree with Bayesian species delimitation. Through divergence time estimation and ancestral host reconstruction, we tested the possible underlying mechanisms for fungal speciation and host-range change. Our results proved that two varieties of the former morphological species V. mali represented two distinct species, V. mali and V. pyri, which diverged about 5 million years ago, much later than the divergence of their preferred hosts, excluding a scenario of fungi–host co-speciation. The marked different thermal preferences and contrasting pathogenicity in cross-inoculation suggest ecological divergences between the two species. Apple was the most likely ancestral host for both V. mali and V. pyri. Host-range expansion led to the occurrence of V. pyri on both pear and apple. Our results also represent an example in which ITS data might underestimate species diversity. PMID:24834333

Determining Crust and Upper Mantle Structure by Bayesian Joint Inversion of Receiver Functions and Surface Wave Dispersion at a Single Station: Preparation for Data from the InSight Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, M.; Panning, M. P.; Lekic, V.; Gao, C.

2017-12-01

The InSight (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) mission will deploy a geophysical station on Mars in 2018. Using seismology to explore the interior structure of the Mars is one of the main targets, and as part of the mission, we will use 3-component seismic data to constrain the crust and upper mantle structure including P and S wave velocities and densities underneath the station. We will apply a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm in the transdimensional hierarchical Bayesian inversion framework, in which the number of parameters in the model space and the noise level of the observed data are also treated as unknowns in the inversion process. Bayesian based methods produce an ensemble of models which can be analyzed to quantify uncertainties and trade-offs of the model parameters. In order to get better resolution, we will simultaneously invert three different types of seismic data: receiver functions, surface wave dispersion (SWD), and ZH ratios. Because the InSight mission will only deliver a single seismic station to Mars, and both the source location and the interior structure will be unknown, we will jointly invert the ray parameter in our approach. In preparation for this work, we first verify our approach by using a set of synthetic data. We find that SWD can constrain the absolute value of velocities while receiver functions constrain the discontinuities. By joint inversion, the velocity structure in the crust and upper mantle is well recovered. Then, we apply our approach to real data from an earth-based seismic station BFO located in Black Forest Observatory in Germany, as already used in a demonstration study for single station location methods. From the comparison of the results, our hierarchical treatment shows its advantage over the conventional method in which the noise level of observed data is fixed as a prior.

Extensions and applications of ensemble-of-trees methods in machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleich, Justin

Ensemble-of-trees algorithms have emerged to the forefront of machine learning due to their ability to generate high forecasting accuracy for a wide array of regression and classification problems. Classic ensemble methodologies such as random forests (RF) and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) rely on algorithmic procedures to generate fits to data. In contrast, more recent ensemble techniques such as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and Dynamic Trees (DT) focus on an underlying Bayesian probability model to generate the fits. These new probability model-based approaches show much promise versus their algorithmic counterparts, but also offer substantial room for improvement. The first part of this thesis focuses on methodological advances for ensemble-of-trees techniques with an emphasis on the more recent Bayesian approaches. In particular, we focus on extensions of BART in four distinct ways. First, we develop a more robust implementation of BART for both research and application. We then develop a principled approach to variable selection for BART as well as the ability to naturally incorporate prior information on important covariates into the algorithm. Next, we propose a method for handling missing data that relies on the recursive structure of decision trees and does not require imputation. Last, we relax the assumption of homoskedasticity in the BART model to allow for parametric modeling of heteroskedasticity. The second part of this thesis returns to the classic algorithmic approaches in the context of classification problems with asymmetric costs of forecasting errors. First we consider the performance of RF and SGB more broadly and demonstrate its superiority to logistic regression for applications in criminology with asymmetric costs. Next, we use RF to forecast unplanned hospital readmissions upon patient discharge with asymmetric costs taken into account. Finally, we explore the construction of stable decision trees for forecasts of violence during probation hearings in court systems.

Isotopic and elemental chemistry of sedimentary pyrite: A combined analytical and statistical approach to a novel planetary biosignature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueroa, M. C.; Gregory, D. D.; Lyons, T. W.; Williford, K. H.

2017-12-01

Life processes affect trace element abundances in pyrite such that sedimentary and hydrothermal pyrite have significantly different trace element signatures. Thus, we propose that these biogeochemical data could be used to identify pyrite that formed biogenetically either early in our planet's history or on other planets, particularly Mars. The potential for this approach is elevated because pyrite is common in diverse sedimentary settings, and its trace element content can be preserved despite secondary overprints up to greenschist facies, thus minimizing the concerns about remobilization that can plague traditional whole rock studies. We are also including in-situ sulfur isotope analysis to further refine our understanding of the complex signatures of ancient pyrite. Sulfur isotope data can point straightforwardly to the involvement of life, because pyrite in sediments is inextricably linked to bacterial sulfate reduction and its diagnostic isotopic expressions. In addition to analyzing pyrite of known biological origin formed in the modern and ancient oceans under a range of conditions, we are building a data set for pyrite formed by hydrothermal and metamorphic processes to minimize the risk of false positives in life detection. We have used Random Forests (RF), a machine learning statistical technique with proven efficiency for classifying large geological datasets, to classify pyrite into biotic and abiotic end members. Coupling the trace element and sulfur isotope data from our analyses with a large existing dataset from diverse settings has yielded 4500 analyses with 18 different variables. Our initial results reveal the promise of the RF approach, correctly identifying biogenic pyrite 97 percent of the time. We will continue to couple new in-situ S-isotope and trace element analyses of biogenic pyrite grains from modern and ancient environments, using cutting-edge microanalytical techniques, with new data from high temperature settings. Our ultimately goal is a refined search tool with straightforward application in the search for early life on Earth and distant life recorded in meteorites, returned samples, and in situ measurements.

Recent Advances in Maya Studies Using Remotely Sensed Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, Tom; Irwin, Daniel; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Peten region of northern Guatemala is one of the last places on earth where major archeological sites remain to be discovered. It was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared. Remote sensing technology is helping to locate and map ancient Maya sites that are threatened today by accelerating deforestation and looting. Thematic Mapper and IKONOS satellite and airborne Star3i radar data, combined with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, are successfully detecting ancient Maya features such as cities, roadways, canals, and water reservoirs. Satellite imagery is also being used to map the bajos, which are seasonally flooded swamps that cover over 40% of the land surface. The use of baJos for farming has been a source of debate within the professional community for many years. But the recent detection and verification of cultural features within the baJo system by our research team are providing conclusive evidence that the ancient Maya had adapted well to wetland environments from the earliest times and utilized them until the time of the Maya collapse. The combination of water management and baJo farming is an important resource for the future of the current inhabitants who are experiencing rapid population growth. Remote sensing imagery is also demonstrating that in the Preclassic period (600 BC- AD 250), the Maya had already achieved a high organizational level as evidenced by the construction of massive temples and an elaborate inter-connecting roadway system. Although they experienced several setbacks such as droughts and hurricanes, the Maya nevertheless managed the delicate forest ecosystem successfully for several centuries. However, around AD 800, something happened to the Maya to cause their rapid decline and eventual disappearance from the region. The evidence indicates that at this time there was increased climatic dryness, extensive deforestation, overpopulation, and widespread warfare. This raises a relevant question today-namely, how severe do internal stresses in a civilization have to become before relatively minor climate shifts can cause a widespread cultural collapse?

Recent Advances in Maya Studies Using Remotely Sensed Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, Tom; Irwin, Daniel; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Peten region of northern Guatemala is one of the last places on earth where major archeological sites remain to be discovered. It was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared. Remote sensing technology is helping to locate and map ancient Maya sites that are threatened today by accelerating deforestation and looting. Thematic Mapper and IKONOS satellite and airborne Star3i radar data, combined with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, are successfully detecting ancient Maya features such as cities, roadways, canals, and water reservoirs. Satellite imagery is also being used to map the baJos, which are seasonally flooded swamps that cover over 40% of the land surface. The use of bajos for farming has been a source of debate within the professional community for many years. But the recent detection and verification of cultural features within the bajo system by our research team are providing conclusive evidence that the ancient Maya had adapted well to wetland environments from the earliest times and utilized them until the time of the Maya collapse. The combination of water management and bajo farming is an important resource for the future of the current inhabitants who are experiencing rapid population growth. Remote sensing imagery is also demonstrating that in the Preclassic period (600 BC- AD 250), the Maya had already achieved a high organizational level as evidenced by the construction of massive temples and an elaborate inter-connecting roadway system. Although they experienced several setbacks such as droughts and hurricanes, the Maya nevertheless managed the delicate forest ecosystem successfully for several centuries. However, around AD 800, something happened to the Maya to cause their rapid decline and eventual disappearance from the region. The evidence indicates that at this time there was increased climatic dryness, extensive deforestation, overpopulation, and widespread warfare. This raises a relevant question today-namely, how severe do internal stresses in a civilization have to become before relatively minor climate shifts can cause a widespread cultural collapse?

Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2006-01-01

Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

Cryptic diversity and deep divergence in an upper Amazonian leaflitter frog, Eleutherodactylus ockendeni

PubMed Central

Elmer, Kathryn R; Dávila, José A; Lougheed, Stephen C

2007-01-01

Background The forests of the upper Amazon basin harbour some of the world's highest anuran species richness, but to date we have only the sparsest understanding of the distribution of genetic diversity within and among species in this region. To quantify region-wide genealogical patterns and to test for the presence of deep intraspecific divergences that have been documented in some other neotropical anurans, we developed a molecular phylogeny of the wide-spread terrestrial leaflitter frog Eleutherodactylus ockendeni (Leptodactylidae) from 13 localities throughout its range in Ecuador using data from two mitochondrial genes (16S and cyt b; 1246 base pairs). We examined the relation between divergence of mtDNA and the nuclear genome, as sampled by five species-specific microsatellite loci, to evaluate indirectly whether lineages are reproductively isolated where they co-occur. Our extensive phylogeographic survey thus assesses the spatial distribution of E. ockendeni genetic diversity across eastern Ecuador. Results We identified three distinct and well-supported clades within the Ecuadorean range of E. ockendeni: an uplands clade spanning north to south, a northeastern and central lowlands clade, and a central and southeastern clade, which is basal. Clades are separated by 12% to 15% net corrected p-distance for cytochrome b, with comparatively low sequence divergence within clades. Clades marginally overlap in some geographic areas (e.g., Napo River basin) but are reproductively isolated, evidenced by diagnostic differences in microsatellite PCR amplification profiles or DNA repeat number and coalescent analyses (in MDIV) best modelled without migration. Using Bayesian (BEAST) and net phylogenetic estimates, the Southeastern Clade diverged from the Upland/Lowland clades in the mid-Miocene or late Oligocene. Lowland and Upland clades speciated more recently, in the early or late Miocene. Conclusion Our findings uncover previously unsuspected cryptic species diversity within the common leaflitter frog E. ockendeni, with at least three different species in Ecuador. While these clades are clearly geographically circumscribed, they do not coincide with any existing landscape barriers. Divergences are ancient, from the Miocene, before the most dramatic mountain building in the Ecuadorean Andes. Therefore, this diversity is not a product of Pleistocene refuges. Our research coupled with other studies suggests that species richness in the upper Amazon is drastically underestimated by current inventories based on morphospecies. PMID:18154647

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

Bayesian correction for covariate measurement error: A frequentist evaluation and comparison with regression calibration.

PubMed

Bartlett, Jonathan W; Keogh, Ruth H

2018-06-01

Bayesian approaches for handling covariate measurement error are well established and yet arguably are still relatively little used by researchers. For some this is likely due to unfamiliarity or disagreement with the Bayesian inferential paradigm. For others a contributory factor is the inability of standard statistical packages to perform such Bayesian analyses. In this paper, we first give an overview of the Bayesian approach to handling covariate measurement error, and contrast it with regression calibration, arguably the most commonly adopted approach. We then argue why the Bayesian approach has a number of statistical advantages compared to regression calibration and demonstrate that implementing the Bayesian approach is usually quite feasible for the analyst. Next, we describe the closely related maximum likelihood and multiple imputation approaches and explain why we believe the Bayesian approach to generally be preferable. We then empirically compare the frequentist properties of regression calibration and the Bayesian approach through simulation studies. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to handle both measurement error and missing data is then illustrated through an analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Supervised Detection of Anomalous Light Curves in Massive Astronomical Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nun, Isadora; Pichara, Karim; Protopapas, Pavlos; Kim, Dae-Won

2014-09-01

The development of synoptic sky surveys has led to a massive amount of data for which resources needed for analysis are beyond human capabilities. In order to process this information and to extract all possible knowledge, machine learning techniques become necessary. Here we present a new methodology to automatically discover unknown variable objects in large astronomical catalogs. With the aim of taking full advantage of all information we have about known objects, our method is based on a supervised algorithm. In particular, we train a random forest classifier using known variability classes of objects and obtain votes for each of the objects in the training set. We then model this voting distribution with a Bayesian network and obtain the joint voting distribution among the training objects. Consequently, an unknown object is considered as an outlier insofar it has a low joint probability. By leaving out one of the classes on the training set, we perform a validity test and show that when the random forest classifier attempts to classify unknown light curves (the class left out), it votes with an unusual distribution among the classes. This rare voting is detected by the Bayesian network and expressed as a low joint probability. Our method is suitable for exploring massive data sets given that the training process is performed offline. We tested our algorithm on 20 million light curves from the MACHO catalog and generated a list of anomalous candidates. After analysis, we divided the candidates into two main classes of outliers: artifacts and intrinsic outliers. Artifacts were principally due to air mass variation, seasonal variation, bad calibration, or instrumental errors and were consequently removed from our outlier list and added to the training set. After retraining, we selected about 4000 objects, which we passed to a post-analysis stage by performing a cross-match with all publicly available catalogs. Within these candidates we identified certain known but rare objects such as eclipsing Cepheids, blue variables, cataclysmic variables, and X-ray sources. For some outliers there was no additional information. Among them we identified three unknown variability types and a few individual outliers that will be followed up in order to perform a deeper analysis.

Full uncertainty quantification of N2O and NO emissions using the biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC on site and regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, Edwin; Santabarbara, Ignacio; Kiese, Ralf; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus

2017-04-01

Numerical simulation models are increasingly used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions at site to regional / national scale and are outlined as the most advanced methodology (Tier 3) in the framework of UNFCCC reporting. Process-based models incorporate the major processes of the carbon and nitrogen cycle of terrestrial ecosystems and are thus thought to be widely applicable at various conditions and spatial scales. Process based modelling requires high spatial resolution input data on soil properties, climate drivers and management information. The acceptance of model based inventory calculations depends on the assessment of the inventory's uncertainty (model, input data and parameter induced uncertainties). In this study we fully quantify the uncertainty in modelling soil N2O and NO emissions from arable, grassland and forest soils using the biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. We address model induced uncertainty (MU) by contrasting two different soil biogeochemistry modules within LandscapeDNDC. The parameter induced uncertainty (PU) was assessed by using joint parameter distributions for key parameters describing microbial C and N turnover processes as obtained by different Bayesian calibration studies for each model configuration. Input data induced uncertainty (DU) was addressed by Bayesian calibration of soil properties, climate drivers and agricultural management practices data. For the MU, DU and PU we performed several hundred simulations each to contribute to the individual uncertainty assessment. For the overall uncertainty quantification we assessed the model prediction probability, followed by sampled sets of input datasets and parameter distributions. Statistical analysis of the simulation results have been used to quantify the overall full uncertainty of the modelling approach. With this study we can contrast the variation in model results to the different sources of uncertainties for each ecosystem. Further we have been able to perform a fully uncertainty analysis for modelling N2O and NO emissions from arable, grassland and forest soils necessary for the comprehensibility of modelling results. We have applied the methodology to a regional inventory to assess the overall modelling uncertainty for a regional N2O and NO emissions inventory for the state of Saxony, Germany.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nun, Isadora; Pichara, Karim; Protopapas, Pavlos

The development of synoptic sky surveys has led to a massive amount of data for which resources needed for analysis are beyond human capabilities. In order to process this information and to extract all possible knowledge, machine learning techniques become necessary. Here we present a new methodology to automatically discover unknown variable objects in large astronomical catalogs. With the aim of taking full advantage of all information we have about known objects, our method is based on a supervised algorithm. In particular, we train a random forest classifier using known variability classes of objects and obtain votes for each ofmore » the objects in the training set. We then model this voting distribution with a Bayesian network and obtain the joint voting distribution among the training objects. Consequently, an unknown object is considered as an outlier insofar it has a low joint probability. By leaving out one of the classes on the training set, we perform a validity test and show that when the random forest classifier attempts to classify unknown light curves (the class left out), it votes with an unusual distribution among the classes. This rare voting is detected by the Bayesian network and expressed as a low joint probability. Our method is suitable for exploring massive data sets given that the training process is performed offline. We tested our algorithm on 20 million light curves from the MACHO catalog and generated a list of anomalous candidates. After analysis, we divided the candidates into two main classes of outliers: artifacts and intrinsic outliers. Artifacts were principally due to air mass variation, seasonal variation, bad calibration, or instrumental errors and were consequently removed from our outlier list and added to the training set. After retraining, we selected about 4000 objects, which we passed to a post-analysis stage by performing a cross-match with all publicly available catalogs. Within these candidates we identified certain known but rare objects such as eclipsing Cepheids, blue variables, cataclysmic variables, and X-ray sources. For some outliers there was no additional information. Among them we identified three unknown variability types and a few individual outliers that will be followed up in order to perform a deeper analysis.« less

Ancient dna from pleistocene fossils: Preservation, recovery, and utility of ancient genetic information for quaternary research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hong

Until recently, recovery and analysis of genetic information encoded in ancient DNA sequences from Pleistocene fossils were impossible. Recent advances in molecular biology offered technical tools to obtain ancient DNA sequences from well-preserved Quaternary fossils and opened the possibilities to directly study genetic changes in fossil species to address various biological and paleontological questions. Ancient DNA studies involving Pleistocene fossil material and ancient DNA degradation and preservation in Quaternary deposits are reviewed. The molecular technology applied to isolate, amplify, and sequence ancient DNA is also presented. Authentication of ancient DNA sequences and technical problems associated with modern and ancient DNA contamination are discussed. As illustrated in recent studies on ancient DNA from proboscideans, it is apparent that fossil DNA sequence data can shed light on many aspects of Quaternary research such as systematics and phylogeny. conservation biology, evolutionary theory, molecular taphonomy, and forensic sciences. Improvement of molecular techniques and a better understanding of DNA degradation during fossilization are likely to build on current strengths and to overcome existing problems, making fossil DNA data a unique source of information for Quaternary scientists.

Carbon Budget and its Dynamics over Northern Eurasia Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shvidenko, Anatoly; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Kraxner, Florian; Maksyutov, Shamil

2016-04-01

The presentation contains an overview of recent findings and results of assessment of carbon cycling of forest ecosystems of Northern Eurasia. From a methodological point of view, there is a clear tendency in understanding a need of a Full and Verified Carbon Account (FCA), i.e. in reliable assessment of uncertainties for all modules and all stages of FCA. FCA is considered as a fuzzy (underspecified) system that supposes a system integration of major methods of carbon cycling study (land-ecosystem approach, LEA; process-based models; eddy covariance; and inverse modelling). Landscape-ecosystem approach 1) serves for accumulation of all relevant knowledge of landscape and ecosystems; 2) for strict systems designing the account, 3) contains all relevant spatially distributed empirical and semi-empirical data and models, and 4) is presented in form of an Integrated Land Information System (ILIS). The ILIS includes a hybrid land cover in a spatially and temporarily explicit way and corresponding attributive databases. The forest mask is provided by utilizing multi-sensor remote sensing data, geographically weighed regression and validation within GEO-wiki platform. By-pixel parametrization of forest cover is based on a special optimization algorithms using all available knowledge and information sources (data of forest inventory and different surveys, observations in situ, official statistics of forest management etc.). Major carbon fluxes within the LEA (NPP, HR, disturbances etc.) are estimated based on fusion of empirical data and aggregations with process-based elements by sets of regionally distributed models. Uncertainties within LEA are assessed for each module and at each step of the account. Within method results of LEA and corresponding uncertainties are harmonized and mutually constrained with independent outputs received by other methods based on the Bayesian approach. The above methodology have been applied to carbon account of Russian forests for 2000-2012. It has been shown that the Net Ecosystem Carbon Budget (NECB) of Russian forests for this period was in range of 0.5-0.7 Pg C yr-1 with a slight negative trend during the period due to acceleration of disturbance regimes and negative impacts of weather extremes (heat waves etc.). Uncertainties of the FCA for individual years were estimated at about 25% (CI 0.9). It has been shown that some models (e.g. majority of DGVMs) do not describe some processes on permafrost satisfactory while results of applications of ensembles of inverse models on average are closed to empirical assessments. A most important conclusion from this experience is that future improvements of knowledge of carbon cycling of Northern Eurasia forests requires development of an integrated observing system as a unified information background, as well as systems methodological improvements of all methods of cognition of carbon cycling.

Prevalence of cryptic species in morphologically uniform taxa - fast speciation and evolutionary radiation in Asian toads.

PubMed

Liu, Zuyao; Chen, Guoling; Zhu, Tianqi; Zeng, Zhaochi; Lyu, Zhitong; Wang, Jian; Messenger, Kevin; Greenberg, Anthony J; Guo, Zixiao; Yang, Ziheng; Shi, Suhua; Wang, Yingyong

2018-06-16

Diversity and distributions of cryptic species have long been a vexing issue. Identification of species boundaries is made difficult by the lack of obvious morphological differences. Here, we investigate the cryptic diversity and evolutionary history of an underappreciated group of Asian frog species (Megophrys) to explore the pattern and dynamic of amphibian cryptic species. We sequenced four mitochondrial genes and five nuclear genes and delineated species using multiple approaches, combining DNA and mating-call data. A Bayesian species tree was generated to estimate divergence times and to reconstruct ancestral ranges. Macroevolutionary analyses and hybridization tests were conducted to explore the evolutionary dynamics of this cryptic group. Our phylogenies support the current subgenera. We revealed 43 cryptic species, 158% higher than previously thought. The species-delimitation results were further confirmed by mating-call data and morphological divergence. We found that these Asian frogss entered China from the Sunda Shelf 48 Mya, followed by an ancient radiation event during middle Miocene. We confirmed the efficiency of the multispecies coalescent model for delimitation of species with low morphological diversity. Species diversity of Megophrys is severely underappreciated, and species distributions have been misestimated as a result. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The First Mitochondrial Genome for the Superfamily Hagloidea and Implications for Its Systematic Status in Ensifera

PubMed Central

Zhou, Zhijun; Shi, Fuming; Zhao, Ling

2014-01-01

Hagloidea Handlirsch, 1906 was an ancient group of Ensifera, that was much more diverse in the past extending at least into the Triassic, apparently diminishing in diversity through the Cretaceous, and now only represented by a few extant species. In this paper, we report the complete mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) of Tarragoilus diuturnus Gorochov, 2001, representing the first mitogenome of the superfamily Hagloidea. The size of the entire mitogenome of T. diuturnus is 16144 bp, containing 13 protein-coding genes (PCGs), 2 ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes, 22 transfer RNA (tRNA) genes and one control region. The order and orientation of the gene arrangement pattern is identical to that of D. yakuba and most ensiferans species. A phylogenomic analysis was carried out based on the concatenated dataset of 13 PCGs and 2 rRNA genes from mitogenome sequences of 15 ensiferan species, comprising four superfamilies Grylloidea, Tettigonioidae, Rhaphidophoroidea and Hagloidea. Both maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses strongly support Hagloidea T. diuturnus and Rhaphidophoroidea Troglophilus neglectus as forming a monophyletic group, sister to the Tettigonioidea. The relationships among four superfamilies of Ensifera were (Grylloidea, (Tettigonioidea, (Hagloidea, Rhaphidophoroidea))). PMID:24465850

A high-precision chronological model for the decorated Upper Paleolithic cave of Chauvet-Pont d'Arc, Ardèche, France.

PubMed

Quiles, Anita; Valladas, Hélène; Bocherens, Hervé; Delqué-Količ, Emmanuelle; Kaltnecker, Evelyne; van der Plicht, Johannes; Delannoy, Jean-Jacques; Feruglio, Valérie; Fritz, Carole; Monney, Julien; Philippe, Michel; Tosello, Gilles; Clottes, Jean; Geneste, Jean-Michel

2016-04-26

Radiocarbon dates for the ancient drawings in the Chauvet-Pont d'Arc Cave revealed ages much older than expected. These early ages and nature of this Paleolithic art make this United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) site indisputably unique. A large, multidisciplinary dating program has recently mapped the anthropological evolution associated with the cave. More than 350 dates (by (14)C, U-Th, TL and (36)Cl) were obtained over the last 15 y. They include 259 radiocarbon dates, mainly related to the rock art and human activity in the cave. We present here more than 80 previously unpublished dates. All of the dates were integrated into a high-precision Bayesian model based on archaeological evidence to securely reconstruct the complete history of the Chauvet-Pont d'Arc Cave on an absolute timescale. It shows that there were two distinct periods of human activity in the cave, one from 37 to 33,500 y ago, and the other from 31 to 28,000 y ago. Cave bears also took refuge in the cave until 33,000 y ago.

A high-precision chronological model for the decorated Upper Paleolithic cave of Chauvet-Pont d’Arc, Ardèche, France

PubMed Central

Quiles, Anita; Valladas, Hélène; Bocherens, Hervé; Delqué-Količ, Emmanuelle; Kaltnecker, Evelyne; van der Plicht, Johannes; Delannoy, Jean-Jacques; Feruglio, Valérie; Fritz, Carole; Monney, Julien; Philippe, Michel; Tosello, Gilles; Clottes, Jean; Geneste, Jean-Michel

2016-01-01

Radiocarbon dates for the ancient drawings in the Chauvet-Pont d’Arc Cave revealed ages much older than expected. These early ages and nature of this Paleolithic art make this United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) site indisputably unique. A large, multidisciplinary dating program has recently mapped the anthropological evolution associated with the cave. More than 350 dates (by 14C, U-Th, TL and 36Cl) were obtained over the last 15 y. They include 259 radiocarbon dates, mainly related to the rock art and human activity in the cave. We present here more than 80 previously unpublished dates. All of the dates were integrated into a high-precision Bayesian model based on archaeological evidence to securely reconstruct the complete history of the Chauvet-Pont d’Arc Cave on an absolute timescale. It shows that there were two distinct periods of human activity in the cave, one from 37 to 33,500 y ago, and the other from 31 to 28,000 y ago. Cave bears also took refuge in the cave until 33,000 y ago. PMID:27071106

Evolution of foraging behaviour: Deep intra-generic genetic divergence between territorial and non-territorial southern African patellid limpets.

PubMed

Mmonwa, Kolobe L; Teske, Peter R; McQuaid, Christopher D; Barker, Nigel P

2017-12-01

Southern Africa is a biodiversity hotspot of patellid limpets, with three genera (Helcion, Cymbula and Scutellastra) identified and described in the region. Scutellastra is the most diverse and most frequently studied of these and, along with Cymbula, includes species with territorial and non-territorial foraging behaviours. We used three mitochondrial markers (12S rRNA, 16S rRNA and COI) and one nuclear marker (ATPSβ intron) to assess evolutionary relationships among species of Cymbula and Scutellastra with these two foraging behaviours and to identify which foraging mode is the more ancient. Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference phylogenetic analyses revealed that the species sharing a foraging type are monophyletic in both genera. Territoriality is a derived character, as the clades with this foraging type are nested within a tree that otherwise comprises non-territorial taxa. These include Helcion, which was recovered as sister to the Cymbula/Scutellastra clade, and the next basal genus, Patella, which is ancestral to all southern African patellogastropods. Deep genetic divergence between the two foraging traits reflects strong adaptive effects of resource partitioning in the evolution of southern African patellid limpets. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Complete mitochondrial genomes of living and extinct pigeons revise the timing of the columbiform radiation.

PubMed

Soares, André E R; Novak, Ben J; Haile, James; Heupink, Tim H; Fjeldså, Jon; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Poinar, Hendrik; Church, George M; Shapiro, Beth

2016-10-26

Pigeons and doves (Columbiformes) are one of the oldest and most diverse extant lineages of birds. However, the nature and timing of the group's evolutionary radiation remains poorly resolved, despite recent advances in DNA sequencing and assembly and the growing database of pigeon mitochondrial genomes. One challenge has been to generate comparative data from the large number of extinct pigeon lineages, some of which are morphologically unique and therefore difficult to place in a phylogenetic context. We used ancient DNA and next generation sequencing approaches to assemble complete mitochondrial genomes for eleven pigeons, including the extinct Ryukyu wood pigeon (Columba jouyi), the thick-billed ground dove (Alopecoenas salamonis), the spotted green pigeon (Caloenas maculata), the Rodrigues solitaire (Pezophaps solitaria), and the dodo (Raphus cucullatus). We used a Bayesian approach to infer the evolutionary relationships among 24 species of living and extinct pigeons and doves. Our analyses indicate that the earliest radiation of the Columbidae crown group most likely occurred during the Oligocene, with continued divergence of major clades into the Miocene, suggesting that diversification within the Columbidae occurred more recently than has been reported previously.

Phylogeny of the cycads based on multiple single-copy nuclear genes: congruence of concatenated parsimony, likelihood and species tree inference methods

PubMed Central

Salas-Leiva, Dayana E.; Meerow, Alan W.; Calonje, Michael; Griffith, M. Patrick; Francisco-Ortega, Javier; Nakamura, Kyoko; Stevenson, Dennis W.; Lewis, Carl E.; Namoff, Sandra

2013-01-01

Background and aims Despite a recent new classification, a stable phylogeny for the cycads has been elusive, particularly regarding resolution of Bowenia, Stangeria and Dioon. In this study, five single-copy nuclear genes (SCNGs) are applied to the phylogeny of the order Cycadales. The specific aim is to evaluate several gene tree–species tree reconciliation approaches for developing an accurate phylogeny of the order, to contrast them with concatenated parsimony analysis and to resolve the erstwhile problematic phylogenetic position of these three genera. Methods DNA sequences of five SCNGs were obtained for 20 cycad species representing all ten genera of Cycadales. These were analysed with parsimony, maximum likelihood (ML) and three Bayesian methods of gene tree–species tree reconciliation, using Cycas as the outgroup. A calibrated date estimation was developed with Bayesian methods, and biogeographic analysis was also conducted. Key Results Concatenated parsimony, ML and three species tree inference methods resolve exactly the same tree topology with high support at most nodes. Dioon and Bowenia are the first and second branches of Cycadales after Cycas, respectively, followed by an encephalartoid clade (Macrozamia–Lepidozamia–Encephalartos), which is sister to a zamioid clade, of which Ceratozamia is the first branch, and in which Stangeria is sister to Microcycas and Zamia. Conclusions A single, well-supported phylogenetic hypothesis of the generic relationships of the Cycadales is presented. However, massive extinction events inferred from the fossil record that eliminated broader ancestral distributions within Zamiaceae compromise accurate optimization of ancestral biogeographical areas for that hypothesis. While major lineages of Cycadales are ancient, crown ages of all modern genera are no older than 12 million years, supporting a recent hypothesis of mostly Miocene radiations. This phylogeny can contribute to an accurate infrafamilial classification of Zamiaceae. PMID:23997230

Genetic and morphological contrasts between wild and anthropogenic populations of Agave parryi var. huachucensis in south-eastern Arizona.

PubMed

Parker, Kathleen C; Trapnell, Dorset W; Hamrick, J L; Hodgson, Wendy C

2014-05-01

At least seven species of Agave, including A. parryi, were cultivated prehistorically in Arizona, serving as important sources of food and fibre. Many relict populations from ancient cultivation remain in the modern landscape, offering a unique opportunity to study pre-Columbian plant manipulation practices. This study examined genetic and morphological variation in six A. p. var. huachucensis populations of unknown origin to compare them with previous work on A. parryi populations of known origin, to infer their cultivation history and to determine whether artificial selection is evident in populations potentially managed by early agriculturalists. Six A. p. var. huachucensis and 17 A. parryi populations were sampled, and morphometric, allozyme and microsatellite data were used to compare morphology and genetic structure in purportedly anthropogenic and wild populations, as well as in the two taxa. Analysis of molecular variance and Bayesian clustering were performed to partition variation associated with taxonomic identity and hypothesized evolutionary history, to highlight patterns of similarity among populations and to identify potential wild sources for the planting stock. A p. var. huachucensis and A. parryi populations differed significantly both morphologically and genetically. Like A. parryi, wild A. p. var. huachucensis populations were more genetically diverse than the inferred anthropogenic populations, with greater expected heterozygosity, percentage of polymorphic loci and number of alleles. Inferred anthropogenic populations exhibited many traits indicative of past active cultivation: greater morphological uniformity, fixed heterozygosity for several loci (non-existent in wild populations), fewer multilocus genotypes and strong differentiation among populations. Where archaeological information is lacking, the genetic signature of many Agave populations in Arizona can be used to infer their evolutionary history and to identify potentially fruitful sites for archaeological investigation of ancient settlements and cultivation practices. The same approach can clearly be adopted for other species in similar situations.

Genetic and morphological contrasts between wild and anthropogenic populations of Agave parryi var. huachucensis in south-eastern Arizona

PubMed Central

Parker, Kathleen C.; Trapnell, Dorset W.; Hamrick, J. L.; Hodgson, Wendy C.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims At least seven species of Agave, including A. parryi, were cultivated prehistorically in Arizona, serving as important sources of food and fibre. Many relict populations from ancient cultivation remain in the modern landscape, offering a unique opportunity to study pre-Columbian plant manipulation practices. This study examined genetic and morphological variation in six A. p. var. huachucensis populations of unknown origin to compare them with previous work on A. parryi populations of known origin, to infer their cultivation history and to determine whether artificial selection is evident in populations potentially managed by early agriculturalists. Methods Six A. p. var. huachucensis and 17 A. parryi populations were sampled, and morphometric, allozyme and microsatellite data were used to compare morphology and genetic structure in purportedly anthropogenic and wild populations, as well as in the two taxa. Analysis of molecular variance and Bayesian clustering were performed to partition variation associated with taxonomic identity and hypothesized evolutionary history, to highlight patterns of similarity among populations and to identify potential wild sources for the planting stock. Key Results A p. var. huachucensis and A. parryi populations differed significantly both morphologically and genetically. Like A. parryi, wild A. p. var. huachucensis populations were more genetically diverse than the inferred anthropogenic populations, with greater expected heterozygosity, percentage of polymorphic loci and number of alleles. Inferred anthropogenic populations exhibited many traits indicative of past active cultivation: greater morphological uniformity, fixed heterozygosity for several loci (non-existent in wild populations), fewer multilocus genotypes and strong differentiation among populations. Conclusions Where archaeological information is lacking, the genetic signature of many Agave populations in Arizona can be used to infer their evolutionary history and to identify potentially fruitful sites for archaeological investigation of ancient settlements and cultivation practices. The same approach can clearly be adopted for other species in similar situations. PMID:24638822

The current state of Bayesian methods in medical product development: survey results and recommendations from the DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group.

PubMed

Natanegara, Fanni; Neuenschwander, Beat; Seaman, John W; Kinnersley, Nelson; Heilmann, Cory R; Ohlssen, David; Rochester, George

2014-01-01

Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub-teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non-inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program-wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub-team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Habitat influences distribution of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Tyler S.; Kirchgessner, Megan S.; Eyler, B.; Ryan, Christopher W.; Walter, W. David

2015-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that was first detected in 1967 in a captive research facility in Colorado. In the northeastern United States, CWD was first confirmed in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in 2005. Because CWD is a new and emerging disease with a spatial distribution that had yet to be assessed in the Northeast, we examined demographic, environmental, and spatial effects to determine how each related to this spatial distribution. The objectives of our study were to identify environmental and spatial effects that best described the spatial distribution of CWD in free-ranging white-tailed deer and identify areas that support deer that are at risk for CWD infection in the Northeast. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling that incorporated demographic covariates, such as sex and age, along with environmental covariates, which included elevation, slope, riparian corridor, percent clay, and 3 landscapes (i.e., developed, forested, open). The model with the most support contained landscape covariates and spatial effects that represented clustering of CWD in adjacent grid cells. Forested landscapes had the strongest relationship with the distribution of CWD, with increased risk of CWD occurring in areas that had lesser amounts of forest. Our results will assist resource managers in understanding the spatial distribution of CWD within the study area, and in surrounding areas where CWD has yet to be found. Efficiency of disease surveillance and containment efforts can be improved by allocating resources used for surveillance in areas with deer populations that are at greatest risk for infection.

Genetic structure and demographic history of the endangered tree species Dysoxylum malabaricum (Meliaceae) in Western Ghats, India: implications for conservation in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Bodare, Sofia; Tsuda, Yoshiaki; Ravikanth, Gudasalamani; Uma Shaanker, Ramanan; Lascoux, Martin

2013-09-01

The impact of fragmentation by human activities on genetic diversity of forest trees is an important concern in forest conservation, especially in tropical forests. Dysoxylum malabaricum (white cedar) is an economically important tree species, endemic to the Western Ghats, India, one of the world's eight most important biodiversity hotspots. As D. malabaricum is under pressure of disturbance and fragmentation together with overharvesting, conservation efforts are required in this species. In this study, range-wide genetic structure of twelve D. malabaricum populations was evaluated to assess the impact of human activities on genetic diversity and infer the species' evolutionary history, using both nuclear and chloroplast (cp) DNA simple sequence repeats (SSR). As genetic diversity and population structure did not differ among seedling, juvenile and adult age classes, reproductive success among the old-growth trees and long distance seed dispersal by hornbills were suggested to contribute to maintain genetic diversity. The fixation index (F IS) was significantly correlated with latitude, with a higher level of inbreeding in the northern populations, possibly reflecting a more severe ecosystem disturbance in those populations. Both nuclear and cpSSRs revealed northern and southern genetic groups with some discordance of their distributions; however, they did not correlate with any of the two geographic gaps known as genetic barriers to animals. Approximate Bayesian computation-based inference from nuclear SSRs suggested that population divergence occurred before the last glacial maximum. Finally we discussed the implications of these results, in particular the presence of a clear pattern of historical genetic subdivision, on conservation policies.

Functional traits help predict post-disturbance demography of tropical trees.

PubMed

Flores, Olivier; Hérault, Bruno; Delcamp, Matthieu; Garnier, Éric; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie

2014-01-01

How tropical tree species respond to disturbance is a central issue of forest ecology, conservation and resource management. We define a hierarchical model to investigate how functional traits measured in control plots relate to the population change rate and to demographic rates for recruitment and mortality after disturbance by logging operations. Population change and demographic rates were quantified on a 12-year period after disturbance and related to seven functional traits measured in control plots. The model was calibrated using a Bayesian Network approach on 53 species surveyed in permanent forest plots (37.5 ha) at Paracou in French Guiana. The network analysis allowed us to highlight both direct and indirect relationships among predictive variables. Overall, 89% of interspecific variability in the population change rate after disturbance were explained by the two demographic rates, the recruitment rate being the most explicative variable. Three direct drivers explained 45% of the variability in recruitment rates, including leaf phosphorus concentration, with a positive effect, and seed size and wood density with negative effects. Mortality rates were explained by interspecific variability in maximum diameter only (25%). Wood density, leaf nitrogen concentration, maximum diameter and seed size were not explained by variables in the analysis and thus appear as independent drivers of post-disturbance demography. Relationships between functional traits and demographic parameters were consistent with results found in undisturbed forests. Functional traits measured in control conditions can thus help predict the fate of tropical tree species after disturbance. Indirect relationships also suggest how different processes interact to mediate species demographic response.

Comparison of Models for the Prediction of Medical Costs of Spinal Fusion in Taiwan Diagnosis-Related Groups by Machine Learning Algorithms.

PubMed

Kuo, Ching-Yen; Yu, Liang-Chin; Chen, Hou-Chaung; Chan, Chien-Lung

2018-01-01

The aims of this study were to compare the performance of machine learning methods for the prediction of the medical costs associated with spinal fusion in terms of profit or loss in Taiwan Diagnosis-Related Groups (Tw-DRGs) and to apply these methods to explore the important factors associated with the medical costs of spinal fusion. A data set was obtained from a regional hospital in Taoyuan city in Taiwan, which contained data from 2010 to 2013 on patients of Tw-DRG49702 (posterior and other spinal fusion without complications or comorbidities). Naïve-Bayesian, support vector machines, logistic regression, C4.5 decision tree, and random forest methods were employed for prediction using WEKA 3.8.1. Five hundred thirty-two cases were categorized as belonging to the Tw-DRG49702 group. The mean medical cost was US $4,549.7, and the mean age of the patients was 62.4 years. The mean length of stay was 9.3 days. The length of stay was an important variable in terms of determining medical costs for patients undergoing spinal fusion. The random forest method had the best predictive performance in comparison to the other methods, achieving an accuracy of 84.30%, a sensitivity of 71.4%, a specificity of 92.2%, and an AUC of 0.904. Our study demonstrated that the random forest model can be employed to predict the medical costs of Tw-DRG49702, and could inform hospital strategy in terms of increasing the financial management efficiency of this operation.

Low leopard populations in protected areas of Maputaland: a consequence of poaching, habitat condition, abundance of prey, and a top predator.

PubMed

Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Kalle, Riddhika; Rosenlund, Havard; Downs, Colleen T

2017-03-01

Identifying the primary causes affecting population densities and distribution of flagship species are necessary in developing sustainable management strategies for large carnivore conservation. We modeled drivers of spatial density of the common leopard ( Panthera pardus ) using a spatially explicit capture-recapture-Bayesian approach to understand their population dynamics in the Maputaland Conservation Unit, South Africa. We camera-trapped leopards in four protected areas (PAs) of varying sizes and disturbance levels covering 198 camera stations. Ours is the first study to explore the effects of poaching level, abundance of prey species (small, medium, and large), competitors (lion Panthera leo and spotted hyenas Crocuta crocuta ), and habitat on the spatial distribution of common leopard density. Twenty-six male and 41 female leopards were individually identified and estimated leopard density ranged from 1.6 ± 0.62/100 km 2 (smallest PA-Ndumo) to 8.4 ± 1.03/100 km 2 (largest PA-western shores). Although dry forest thickets and plantation habitats largely represented the western shores, the plantation areas had extremely low leopard density compared to native forest. We found that leopard density increased in areas when low poaching levels/no poaching was recorded in dry forest thickets and with high abundance of medium-sized prey, but decreased with increasing abundance of lion. Because local leopard populations are vulnerable to extinction, particularly in smaller PAs, the long-term sustainability of leopard populations depend on developing appropriate management strategies that consider a combination of multiple factors to maintain their optimal habitats.

Genetic structure and demographic history of the endangered tree species Dysoxylum malabaricum (Meliaceae) in Western Ghats, India: implications for conservation in a biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

Bodare, Sofia; Tsuda, Yoshiaki; Ravikanth, Gudasalamani; Uma Shaanker, Ramanan; Lascoux, Martin

2013-01-01

The impact of fragmentation by human activities on genetic diversity of forest trees is an important concern in forest conservation, especially in tropical forests. Dysoxylum malabaricum (white cedar) is an economically important tree species, endemic to the Western Ghats, India, one of the world's eight most important biodiversity hotspots. As D. malabaricum is under pressure of disturbance and fragmentation together with overharvesting, conservation efforts are required in this species. In this study, range-wide genetic structure of twelve D. malabaricum populations was evaluated to assess the impact of human activities on genetic diversity and infer the species’ evolutionary history, using both nuclear and chloroplast (cp) DNA simple sequence repeats (SSR). As genetic diversity and population structure did not differ among seedling, juvenile and adult age classes, reproductive success among the old-growth trees and long distance seed dispersal by hornbills were suggested to contribute to maintain genetic diversity. The fixation index (FIS) was significantly correlated with latitude, with a higher level of inbreeding in the northern populations, possibly reflecting a more severe ecosystem disturbance in those populations. Both nuclear and cpSSRs revealed northern and southern genetic groups with some discordance of their distributions; however, they did not correlate with any of the two geographic gaps known as genetic barriers to animals. Approximate Bayesian computation-based inference from nuclear SSRs suggested that population divergence occurred before the last glacial maximum. Finally we discussed the implications of these results, in particular the presence of a clear pattern of historical genetic subdivision, on conservation policies. PMID:24223264

Ancient Astronomy in Armenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsamian, Elma S.

2007-08-01

The most important discovery, which enriched our knowledge of ancient astronomy in Armenia, was the complex of platforms for astronomical observations on the Small Hill of Metzamor, which may be called an ancient “observatory”. Investigations on that Hill show that the ancient inhabitants of the Armenian Highlands have left us not only pictures of celestial bodies, but a very ancient complex of platforms for observing the sky. Among the ancient monuments in Armenia there is a megalithic monument, probably, being connected with astronomy. 250km South-East of Yerevan there is a structure Zorats Kar (Karahunge) dating back to II millennium B.C. Vertical megaliths many of which are more than two meters high form stone rings resembling ancient stone monuments - henges in Great Britain and Brittany. Medieval observations of comets and novas by data in ancient Armenian manuscripts are found. In the collection of ancient Armenian manuscripts (Matenadaran) in Yerevan there are many manuscripts with information about observations of astronomical events as: solar and lunar eclipses, comets and novas, bolides and meteorites etc. in medieval Armenia.

Astronomical Context of Georgian Folklore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jijelava1, Badri; Holbrook, Jarita; Simonia, Irakli

2016-10-01

Objectives: The religious Ancient megalithic monuments are accordingly o/riente to the ancient Gods - The Sun, Moon, luminaries. The aim of this work to research the ethnographic data, current folklore and based on the results, harmonize the ancient Gods and the orientations of the religious megalithic complexes. Methods/Statistical Analysis: We harmonized the ethnographical, folklore and historical information and restoration of ancient celestial sphere (using special astronomy application) and identified the correlations between the some acronychal or helical rising/set of luminaries and orientations of megalithic objects. Such connections are stored in a folklore. Findings: This technique of investigations gives us more clear understanding of ancient universe. Using this method, we can receive additional information about the ancient Gods - Luminaries, clarify current mythology, date the megalithic complex. Application/Improvements: This method of investigation - Harmonization cultural astronomy and archae or astronomy with the archeological investigations will be more fruitful, because it gives us reliable information concerning the ancient culture, ancient religion and ancient people.

Wildfires in Chile: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Úbeda, Xavier; Sarricolea, Pablo

2016-11-01

This paper reviews the literature examining the wildfire phenomenon in Chile. Since ancient times, Chile's wildfires have shaped the country's landscape, but today, as in many other parts of the world, the fire regime - pattern, frequency and intensity - has grown at an alarming rate. In 2014, > 8000 fires were responsible for burning c. 130,000 ha, making it the worst year in Chile's recent history. The reasons for this increase appear to be the increment in the area planted with flammable species; the rejection of these landscape modifications on the part of local communities that target these plantations in arson attacks; and, the adoption of intensive forest management practices resulting in the accumulation of a high fuel load. These trends have left many native species in a precarious situation and forest plantation companies under considerable financial pressure. An additional problem is posed by fires at the wildland urban interface (WUI), threatening those inhabitants that live in Chile's most heavily populated cities. The prevalence of natural fires in Chile; the relationship between certain plant species and fire in terms of seed germination strategies and plant adaptation; the relationship between fire and invasive species; and, the need for fire prevention systems and territorial plans that include fire risk assessments are some of the key aspects discussed in this article. Several of the questions raised will require further research, including just how fire-dependent the ecosystems in Chile are, how the forest at the WUI can be better managed to prevent human and material damage, and how best to address the social controversy that pits the Mapuche population against the timber companies.

Arthropods in modern resins reveal if amber accurately recorded forest arthropod communities.

PubMed

Solórzano Kraemer, Mónica M; Delclòs, Xavier; Clapham, Matthew E; Arillo, Antonio; Peris, David; Jäger, Peter; Stebner, Frauke; Peñalver, Enrique

2018-05-07

Amber is an organic multicompound derivative from the polymerization of resin of diverse higher plants. Compared with other modes of fossil preservation, amber records the anatomy of and ecological interactions between ancient soft-bodied organisms with exceptional fidelity. However, it is currently suggested that ambers do not accurately record the composition of arthropod forest paleocommunities, due to crucial taphonomic biases. We evaluated the effects of taphonomic processes on arthropod entrapment by resin from the plant Hymenaea , one of the most important resin-producing trees and a producer of tropical Cenozoic ambers and Anthropocene (or subfossil) resins. We statistically compared natural entrapment by Hymenaea verrucosa tree resin with the ensemble of arthropods trapped by standardized entomological traps around the same tree species. Our results demonstrate that assemblages in resin are more similar to those from sticky traps than from malaise traps, providing an accurate representation of the arthropod fauna living in or near the resiniferous tree, but not of entire arthropod forest communities. Particularly, arthropod groups such as Lepidoptera, Collembola, and some Diptera are underrepresented in resins. However, resin assemblages differed slightly from sticky traps, perhaps because chemical compounds in the resins attract or repel specific insect groups. Ground-dwelling or flying arthropods that use the tree-trunk habitat for feeding or reproduction are also well represented in the resin assemblages, implying that fossil inclusions in amber can reveal fundamental information about biology of the past. These biases have implications for the paleoecological interpretation of the fossil record, principally of Cenozoic amber with angiosperm origin.

On the Adequacy of Bayesian Evaluations of Categorization Models: Reply to Vanpaemel and Lee (2012)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wills, Andy J.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.

2012-01-01

Vanpaemel and Lee (2012) argued, and we agree, that the comparison of formal models can be facilitated by Bayesian methods. However, Bayesian methods neither precede nor supplant our proposals (Wills & Pothos, 2012), as Bayesian methods can be applied both to our proposals and to their polar opposites. Furthermore, the use of Bayesian methods to…

Moving beyond qualitative evaluations of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Hemmer, Pernille; Tauber, Sean; Steyvers, Mark

2015-06-01

Bayesian models of cognition provide a powerful way to understand the behavior and goals of individuals from a computational point of view. Much of the focus in the Bayesian cognitive modeling approach has been on qualitative model evaluations, where predictions from the models are compared to data that is often averaged over individuals. In many cognitive tasks, however, there are pervasive individual differences. We introduce an approach to directly infer individual differences related to subjective mental representations within the framework of Bayesian models of cognition. In this approach, Bayesian data analysis methods are used to estimate cognitive parameters and motivate the inference process within a Bayesian cognitive model. We illustrate this integrative Bayesian approach on a model of memory. We apply the model to behavioral data from a memory experiment involving the recall of heights of people. A cross-validation analysis shows that the Bayesian memory model with inferred subjective priors predicts withheld data better than a Bayesian model where the priors are based on environmental statistics. In addition, the model with inferred priors at the individual subject level led to the best overall generalization performance, suggesting that individual differences are important to consider in Bayesian models of cognition.

Modelling deforestation trends in Costa Rica and predicting future forest sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stan, Kayla; Sanchez, Arturo

2017-04-01

Deforestation in Costa Rica has historically varied between the original degradation of primary forest due to land-based industries, followed by secondary regrowth. The regeneration of forests largely came into effect with incentive based programs such as payments for ecosystem services, creation of large protected areas, and a new industry of ecotourism in the country. Given the changes that have occurred within the last 50 years from heavy deforestation pressures to regeneration patterns, and a correlation between deforestation and policy/economic influences, it is important to understand the historical changes that have occurred and how the forests will change in the future, which provides the objective of this study. Future projections are increasingly important given changes in the global socio-political structure, climatic change, and the ever increasing globalization of capitalistic endeavours. The trajectory of the forest in the country can also serve as a way to track both these global pressures on the natural landscape in Costa Rica, and as a proxy for how to manage deforestation in other similar political and geographic areas of the tropics. To determine the historical deforestation trends and link them to the different biogeophysical and socioeconomic variables, forest maps from 1960-2013 were used in the Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO) to create deforestation models for Costa Rica. Dinamica EGO is a cellular automata model which utilizes Bayesian statistics and expert opinion to replicate both patterns and quantities of land cover change over time with both static and dynamic variables. Additional legislative variables can be used to track how political pressures shift deforestation both spatially and temporally. The historical model was built and analyzed for changes in landscape metrics such as patch size and distance between 1960 and 2013. After validation of the model's ability to replicate patterns, first between 2005 and 2013, and then back to 1997, a future model was created to determine future country wide changes. There was a significant decrease in patch size between 1960 and 2013 in forests and a non-significant decrease is patch size for non-forests. The historical model validated at 85% accuracy within 600m for both the 2005-2013 and 1997-2005 iterations. Future scenario building determines the point in time and area at which the forest area equilibrates, indicating the approximate maximal forest extent under extreme scenarios. None of the scenarios were sufficiently damaging to decrease the forest area below present day levels. The Puntarenas province is the only region which had deforestation in the most extreme scenario. Using the inclusion and exclusion of protected areas within the model, it was determined which of the parks suffers from high pressure of deforestation should there be policy removing protected area status. These parks are predominantly limited to small areas on coastal regions, while the large central parks suffer relatively little pressure from deforestation. This indicates that even under the most extreme scenarios, the secondary forests are likely to remain permanently and continue to regenerate as time progresses.

Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

PubMed

Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

2015-08-01

Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

Integrating invasive grasses into carbon cycle projections: Cogongrass spread in southern pine forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCabe, T. D.; Flory, S. L.; Wiesner, S.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

Forested ecosystems are currently being disrupted by invasive species. One example is the invasive grass Imperata cylindrica (cogongrass), which is widespread in southeastern US pine forests. Pines forests dominate the forest cover of the southeast, and contribute to making the Southeast the United States' largest carbon sink. Cogongrass decreases the colonization of loblolly pine fine roots. If cogongrass continues to invade,this sink could be jeopardized. However, the effects of cogongrass invasion on carbon sequestration are largely unknown. We have projected the effects of elevated CO2 and changing climate on future cogongrass invasion. To test how pine stands are affected by cogongrass, cogongrass invasions were modeled using the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model, and parameterized using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn). ED2 takes into account local meteorological data, stand populations and succession, disturbance, and geochemical pools. PEcAn is a workflow that uses Bayesian sensitivity analyses and variance decomposition to quantify the uncertainty that each parameter contributes to overall model uncertainty. ED2 was run for four NEON and Ameriflux sites in the Southeast from the earliest available census of the site into 2010. These model results were compared to site measures to test for model accuracy and bias. To project the effect of elevated CO2 on cogongrass invasions, ED was run from 2006-2100 at four sites under four separate scenarios: 1) RPC4.5 CO2 and climate, 2) RPC4.5 climate only, with constant CO2 concentrations, 3) RPC4.5 Elevated CO2 only, with climate randomly selected from 2006-2026, 4) Present Day, made from randomly selected measures of CO2 and radiation from 2006-2026. Each scenario was run three times; once with cogongrass absent, once with a low cogongrass abundance, and once with a high cogongrass abundance. Model results suggest that many relevant parameters have high uncertainty due to lack of measurement. Further field work quantifying the carbon cycle, particularly belowground processes and respiration, could help constrain parameter uncertainty.

A Hierarchical Analysis of Tree Growth and Environmental Drivers Across Eastern US Temperate Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

Improving predictions of how forests in the eastern United States will respond to future global change requires a better understanding of the drivers of variability in tree growth rates. Current inventory data lack the temporal resolution to characterize interannual variability, while existing growth records lack the extent required to assess spatial scales of variability. Therefore, we established a network of forest inventory plots across ten sites across the eastern US, and measured growth in adult trees using increment cores. Sites were chosen to maximize climate space explored, while within sites, plots were spread across primary environmental gradients to explore landscape-level variability in growth. Using the annual growth record available from tree cores, we explored the responses of trees to multiple environmental covariates over multiple spatial and temporal scales. We hypothesized that within and across sites growth rates vary among species, and that intraspecific growth rates increase with temperature along a species' range. We also hypothesized that trees show synchrony in growth responses to landscape-scale climatic changes. Initial analyses of growth increments indicate that across sites, trees with intermediate shade tolerance, e.g. Red Oak (Quercus rubra), tend to have the highest growth rates. At the site level, there is evidence for synchrony in response to large-scale climatic events (e.g. prolonged drought and above average temperatures). However, growth responses to climate at the landscape scale have yet to be detected. Our current analysis utilizes hierarchical Bayesian state-space modeling to focus on growth responses of adult trees to environmental covariates at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This predictive model of tree growth currently incorporates observed effects at the individual, plot, site, and landscape scale. Current analysis using this model shows a potential slowing of growth in the past decade for two sites in the northeastern US (Harvard Forest and Bartlett Experimental Forest), however more work is required to determine the robustness of this trend. Finally, these observations are being incorporated into ecosystem models using the Brown Dog informatics tools and the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) data assimilation workflow.

A New Method to Measure the Post-reionization Ionizing Background from the Joint Distribution of Lyα and Lyβ Forest Transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Frederick B.; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Eilers, Anna-Christina; Lukić, Zarija

2018-03-01

The amplitude of the ionizing background that pervades the intergalactic medium (IGM) at the end of the epoch of reionization provides a valuable constraint on the emissivity of the sources that reionized the universe. While measurements of the ionizing background at lower redshifts rely on a simulation-calibrated mapping between the photoionization rate and the mean transmission of the Lyα forest, at z ≳ 6 the IGM becomes increasingly opaque and transmission arises solely in narrow spikes separated by saturated Gunn–Peterson troughs. In this regime, the traditional approach of measuring the average transmission over large ∼50 Mpc/h regions is less sensitive and suboptimal. In addition, the five times smaller oscillator strength of the Lyβ transition implies that the Lyβ forest is considerably more transparent at z ≳ 6, even in the presence of contamination by foreground z ∼ 5 Lyα forest absorption. In this work we present a novel statistical approach to analyze the joint distribution of transmission spikes in the cospatial z ∼ 6 Lyα and Lyβ forests. Our method relies on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), which circumvents the necessity of computing the intractable likelihood function describing the highly correlated Lyα and Lyβ transmission. We apply ABC to mock data generated from a large-volume hydrodynamical simulation combined with a state-of-the-art model of ionizing background fluctuations in the post-reionization IGM and show that it is sensitive to higher IGM neutral hydrogen fractions than previous techniques. As a proof of concept, we apply this methodology to a real spectrum of a z = 6.54 quasar and measure the ionizing background from 5.4 ≤ z ≤ 6.4 along this sightline with ∼0.2 dex statistical uncertainties. Some of the data presented herein were obtained at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W. M. Keck Foundation.

Urology and the scientific method in ancient Egypt.

PubMed

Gordetsky, Jennifer; O'Brien, Jeanne

2009-03-01

To examine the practice of urology in ancient Egypt using various sources, including the Edwin Smith and Ebers Papyri. The sources of knowledge of ancient Egyptian medicine include medical papyri, paleopathology, art, and hieroglyphic carvings. A brief overview of the medical system in ancient Egypt was completed, in addition to an examination of the training and specialization of the physician in the ancient world. Urologic diseases treated in ancient Egypt and some of the first documented urologic surgeries are presented. Finally, we studied the role of the physician-priest and the intertwined use of religion and magic in ancient Egyptian medicine. The same medical conditions urologists treat in the office today were methodically documented thousands of years ago. Medical papyri show evidence that the ancient Egyptians practiced medicine using a scientific method based on the clinical observation of disease. This has been exemplified by the Edwin Smith Surgical Papyrus, a collection of surgical cases that gives a diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis for each ailment, and the discovery of medical specialization in ancient Egypt, giving us perhaps the world's first urologists. Intertwined with the scientific method was also the rich mysticism and religion of ancient Egypt, which were integral components of the healing process. We present an overview of the practice of urology in ancient Egypt, in terms of both pharmacologic and surgical intervention, as well as with a look into the religion of medicine practiced at that time.

Unveiling the Hidden Bat Diversity of a Neotropical Montane Forest

PubMed Central

Chaverri, Gloriana; Garin, Inazio; Alberdi, Antton; Jimenez, Lide; Castillo-Salazar, Cristian; Aihartza, Joxerra

2016-01-01

Mountain environments, characterized by high levels of endemism, are at risk of experiencing significant biodiversity loss due to current trends in global warming. While many acknowledge their importance and vulnerability, these ecosystems still remain poorly studied, particularly for taxa that are difficult to sample such as bats. Aiming to estimate the amount of cryptic diversity among bats of a Neotropical montane cloud forest in Talamanca Range—south-east Central America—, we performed a 15-night sampling campaign, which resulted in 90 captured bats belonging to 8 species. We sequenced their mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and screened their inter- and intraspecific genetic variation. Phylogenetic relations with conspecifics and closely related species from other geographic regions were established using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian inference methods, as well as median-joining haplotype networks. Mitochondrial lineages highly divergent from hitherto characterized populations (> 9% COI dissimilarity) were found in Myotis oxyotus and Hylonycteris underwoodi. Sturnira burtonlimi and M. keaysi also showed distinct mitochondrial structure with sibling species and/or populations. These results suggest that mountains in the region hold a high degree of endemicity potential that has previously been ignored in bats. They also warn of the high extinction risk montane bats may be facing due to climatic change, particularly in isolated mountain systems like Talamanca Range. PMID:27706168

Investigating Processes of Neotropical Rain Forest Tree Diversification By Examining the Evolution and Historical Biogeography of the Protieae (BURSERACEAE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fine, P.; Zapata, F.; Daly, D.

2014-12-01

Andean uplift and the collision of North and South America are thought to have major implications for the diversification of the Neotropical biota. However, few studies have investigated how these geological events may have influenced diversification. We present a multilocus phylogeny of 102 Protieae taxa (73% of published species), sampled pantropically, to test hypotheses about the relative importance of dispersal, vicariance, habitat specialization, and biotic factors in the diversification of this ecologically dominant tribe of Neotropical trees. Bayesian fossil-calibrated analyses date the Protieae stem at 55 Mya. Biogeographic analyses reconstruct an initial late Oligocene/early Miocene radiation in Amazonia for Neotropical Protieae, with several subsequent late Miocene dispersal events to Central America, the Caribbean, Brazil's Atlantic Forest, and the Chocó. Regional phylogenetic structure results indicate frequent dispersal among regions throughout the Miocene and many instances of more recent regional in situ speciation. Habitat specialization to white sand or flooded soils was common, especially in Amazonia. There was one significant increase in diversification rate coincident with colonization of the Neotropics, followed by a gradual decrease consistent with models of diversity-dependent cladogenesis. Dispersal, biotic interactions, and habitat specialization are thus hypothesized to be the most important processes underlying the diversification of the Protieae.

Modelling past land use using archaeological and pollen data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirzamanbein, Behnaz; Lindström, johan; Poska, Anneli; Gaillard-Lemdahl, Marie-José

2016-04-01

Accurate maps of past land use are necessary for studying the impact of anthropogenic land-cover changes on climate and biodiversity. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct the land use using Gaussian Markov random fields. The model uses two observations sets: 1) archaeological data, representing human settlements, urbanization and agricultural findings; and 2) pollen-based land estimates of the three land-cover types Coniferous forest, Broadleaved forest and Unforested/Open land. The pollen based estimates are obtained from the REVEALS model, based on pollen counts from lakes and bogs. Our developed model uses the sparse pollen-based estimations to reconstruct the spatial continuous cover of three land cover types. Using the open-land component and the archaeological data, the extent of land-use is reconstructed. The model is applied on three time periods - centred around 1900 CE, 1000 and, 4000 BCE over Sweden for which both pollen-based estimates and archaeological data are available. To estimate the model parameters and land use, a block updated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is applied. Using the MCMC posterior samples uncertainties in land-use predictions are computed. Due to lack of good historic land use data, model results are evaluated by cross-validation. Keywords. Spatial reconstruction, Gaussian Markov random field, Fossil pollen records, Archaeological data, Human land-use, Prediction uncertainty

Phylogeography of Partamona rustica (Hymenoptera, Apidae), an Endemic Stingless Bee from the Neotropical Dry Forest Diagonal.

PubMed

Miranda, Elder Assis; Batalha-Filho, Henrique; Congrains, Carlos; Carvalho, Antônio Freire; Ferreira, Kátia Maria; Del Lama, Marco Antonio

2016-01-01

The South America encompasses the highest levels of biodiversity found anywhere in the world and its rich biota is distributed among many different biogeographical regions. However, many regions of South America are still poorly studied, including its xeric environments, such as the threatened Caatinga and Cerrado phytogeographical domains. In particular, the effects of Quaternary climatic events on the demography of endemic species from xeric habitats are poorly understood. The present study uses an integrative approach to reconstruct the evolutionary history of Partamona rustica, an endemic stingless bee from dry forest diagonal in Brazil, in a spatial-temporal framework. In this sense, we sequenced four mitochondrial genes and genotyped eight microsatellite loci. Our results identified two population groups: one to the west and the other to the east of the São Francisco River Valley (SFRV). These groups split in the late Pleistocene, and the Approximate Bayesian Computation approach and phylogenetic reconstruction indicated that P. rustica originated in the west of the SFRV, subsequently colonising eastern region. Our tests of migration detected reduced gene flow between these groups. Finally, our results also indicated that the inferences both from the genetic data analyses and from the spatial distribution modelling are compatible with historical demographic stability.

A quantitative assessment of a terrestrial biosphere model's data needs across North American biomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietze, Michael C.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Davidson, Carl; Desai, Ankur R.; Feng, Xiaohui; Kelly, Ryan; Kooper, Rob; LeBauer, David; Mantooth, Joshua; McHenry, Kenton; Wang, Dan

2014-03-01

Terrestrial biosphere models are designed to synthesize our current understanding of how ecosystems function, test competing hypotheses of ecosystem function against observations, and predict responses to novel conditions such as those expected under climate change. Reducing uncertainties in such models can improve both basic scientific understanding and our predictive capacity, but rarely are ecosystem models employed in the design of field campaigns. We provide a synthesis of carbon cycle uncertainty analyses conducted using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer ecoinformatics workflow with the Ecosystem Demography model v2. This work is a synthesis of multiple projects, using Bayesian data assimilation techniques to incorporate field data and trait databases across temperate forests, grasslands, agriculture, short rotation forestry, boreal forests, and tundra. We report on a number of data needs that span a wide array of diverse biomes, such as the need for better constraint on growth respiration, mortality, stomatal conductance, and water uptake. We also identify data needs that are biome specific, such as photosynthetic quantum efficiency at high latitudes. We recommend that future data collection efforts balance the bias of past measurements toward aboveground processes in temperate biomes with the sensitivities of different processes as represented by ecosystem models. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.