Digital-map grids of mean-annual precipitation for 1961-90, and generalized skew coefficients of annual maximum streamflow for Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rea, A.H.; Tortorelli, R.L.

1997-01-01

This digital report contains two digital-map grids of data that were used to develop peak-flow regression equations in Tortorelli, 1997, 'Techniques for estimating peak-streamflow frequency for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma,' U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 97-4202. One data set is a grid of mean annual precipitation, in inches, based on the period 1961-90, for Oklahoma. The data set was derived from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) mean annual precipitation grid for the United States, developed by Daly, Neilson, and Phillips (1994, 'A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain:' Journal of Applied Meteorology, v. 33, no. 2, p. 140-158). The second data set is a grid of generalized skew coefficients of logarithms of annual maximum streamflow for Oklahoma streams less than or equal to 2,510 square miles in drainage area. This grid of skew coefficients is taken from figure 11 of Tortorelli and Bergman, 1985, 'Techniques for estimating flood peak discharges for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma,' U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 84-4358. To save disk space, the skew coefficient values have been multiplied by 100 and rounded to integers with two significant digits. The data sets are provided in an ASCII grid format.

Regression method for estimating long-term mean annual ground-water recharge rates from base flow in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, Dennis W.; Thompson, Ronald E.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2008-01-01

A method was developed for making estimates of long-term, mean annual ground-water recharge from streamflow data at 80 streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. The method relates mean annual base-flow yield derived from the streamflow data (as a proxy for recharge) to the climatic, geologic, hydrologic, and physiographic characteristics of the basins (basin characteristics) by use of a regression equation. Base-flow yield is the base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area of the basin, expressed in inches of water basinwide. Mean annual base-flow yield was computed for the period of available streamflow record at continuous streamflow-gaging stations by use of the computer program PART, which separates base flow from direct runoff on the streamflow hydrograph. Base flow provides a reasonable estimate of recharge for basins where streamflow is mostly unaffected by upstream regulation, diversion, or mining. Twenty-eight basin characteristics were included in the exploratory regression analysis as possible predictors of base-flow yield. Basin characteristics found to be statistically significant predictors of mean annual base-flow yield during 1971-2000 at the 95-percent confidence level were (1) mean annual precipitation, (2) average maximum daily temperature, (3) percentage of sand in the soil, (4) percentage of carbonate bedrock in the basin, and (5) stream channel slope. The equation for predicting recharge was developed using ordinary least-squares regression. The standard error of prediction for the equation on log-transformed data was 9.7 percent, and the coefficient of determination was 0.80. The equation can be used to predict long-term, mean annual recharge rates for ungaged basins, providing that the explanatory basin characteristics can be determined and that the underlying assumption is accepted that base-flow yield derived from PART is a reasonable estimate of ground-water recharge rates. For example, application of the equation for 370 hydrologic units in Pennsylvania predicted a range of ground-water recharge from about 6.0 to 22 inches per year. A map of the predicted recharge illustrates the general magnitude and variability of recharge throughout Pennsylvania.

Summary of annual mean and annual harmonic mean statistics of daily mean streamflow for 620 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Texas through water year 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Heitmuller, Franklin T.

2008-01-01

Analysts and managers of surface-water resources have interest in annual mean and annual harmonic mean statistics of daily mean streamflow for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. The mean streamflow represents streamflow volume, whereas the harmonic mean streamflow represents an appropriate statistic for assessing constituent concentrations that might adversely affect human health. In 2008, the USGS, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, conducted a large-scale documentation of mean and harmonic mean streamflow for 620 active and inactive, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging stations using period of record data through water year 2007. About 99 stations within the Texas USGS streamflow-gaging network are part of the larger national Hydroclimatic Data Network and are identified. The graphical depictions of annual mean and annual harmonic mean statistics in this report provide a historical perspective of streamflow at each station. Each figure consists of three time-series plots, two flow-duration curves, and a statistical summary of the mean annual and annual harmonic mean streamflow statistics for available data for each station.The first time-series plot depicts daily mean streamflow for the period 1900-2007. Flow-duration curves follow and are a graphical depiction of streamflow variability. Next, the remaining two time-series plots depict annual mean and annual harmonic mean streamflow and are augmented with horizontal lines that depict mean and harmonic mean for the period of record. Monotonic trends for the annual mean streamflow and annual harmonic mean streamflow also are identified using Kendall's tau, and the slope of the trend is depicted using the nonparametric (linear) Theil-Sen line, which is only drawn for p-values less than .10 of tau. The history of annual mean and annual harmonic mean streamflow of one or more streamflow-gaging stations could be used in a watershed, river basin, or other regional context by analysts and managers of surface-water resources to guide scientific, regulatory, or other inquiries of streamflow conditions in Texas.

An environmental streamflow assessment for the Santiam River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John C.; Wallick, J. Rose; Mangano, Joseph F.; Jones, Krista L.

2012-01-01

The Santiam River is a tributary of the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon and drains an area of 1,810 square miles. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates four dams in the basin, which are used primarily for flood control, hydropower production, recreation, and water-quality improvement. The Detroit and Big Cliff Dams were constructed in 1953 on the North Santiam River. The Green Peter and Foster Dams were completed in 1967 on the South Santiam River. The impacts of the structures have included a decrease in the frequency and magnitude of floods and an increase in low flows. For three North Santiam River reaches, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 42–50 percent because of regulated streamflow conditions. Likewise, for three reaches in the South Santiam River basin, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 39–52 percent because of regulation. In contrast to their effect on high flows, the dams increased low flows. The median of annual 7-day minimum flows in six of the seven study reaches increased under regulated streamflow conditions between 60 and 334 percent. On a seasonal basis, median monthly streamflows decreased from February to May and increased from September to January in all the reaches. However, the magnitude of these impacts usually decreased farther downstream from dams because of cumulative inflow from unregulated tributaries and groundwater entering the North, South, and main-stem Santiam Rivers below the dams. A Wilcox rank-sum test of monthly precipitation data from Salem, Oregon, and Waterloo, Oregon, found no significant difference between the pre-and post-dam periods, which suggests that the construction and operation of the dams since the 1950s and 1960s are a primary cause of alterations to the Santiam River basin streamflow regime. In addition to the streamflow analysis, this report provides a geomorphic characterization of the Santiam River basin and the associated conceptual framework for assessing possible geomorphic and ecological changes in response to river-flow modifications. Suggestions for future biomonitoring and investigations are also provided. This study was one in a series of similar tributary streamflow and geomorphic studies conducted for the Willamette Sustainable Rivers Project. The Sustainable Rivers Project is a national effort by the USACE and The Nature Conservancy to develop environmental flow requirements in regulated river systems.

Streamflow trends in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, H.F.; Slack, J.R.

1999-01-01

Secular trends in streamflow are evaluated for 395 climate-sensitive streamgaging stations in the conterminous United States using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Trends are calculated for selected quantiles of discharge, from the 0th to the 100th percentile, to evaluate differences between low-, medium-, and high-flow regimes during the twentieth century. Two general patterns emerge; trends are most prevalent in the annual minimum (Q0) to median (Q50) flow categories and least prevalent in the annual maximum (Q100) category; and, at all but the highest quantiles, streamflow has increased across broad sections of the United States. Decreases appear only in parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Systematic patterns are less apparent in the Q100 flow. Hydrologically, these results indicate that the conterminous U.S. is getting wetter, but less extreme.

Trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River, southeastern Arizona, and regional trends in precipitation and streamflow in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Blakemore E.; Pool, Don R.

2006-01-01

This study was done to improve the understanding of trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona. Annual streamflow of the river at Charleston, Arizona, has decreased by more than 50 percent during the 20th century. The San Pedro River is one of the few remaining free-flowing perennial streams in the arid Southwestern United States, and the riparian forest along the river supports several endangered species and is an important habitat for migratory birds. Trends in seasonal and annual precipitation and streamflow were evaluated for surrounding areas in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico to provide a regional perspective for the trends of the San Pedro River. Seasonal and annual streamflow trends and the relation between precipitation and streamflow in the San Pedro River Basin were evaluated to improve the understanding of the causes of trends. There were few significant trends in seasonal and annual precipitation or streamflow for the regional study area. Precipitation and streamflow records were analyzed for 11 time periods ranging from 1930 to 2002; no significant trends were found in 92 percent of the trend tests for precipitation, and no significant trends were found in 79 percent of the trend tests for streamflow. For the trends in precipitation that were significant, 90 percent were positive and most of those positive trends were in records of winter, spring, or annual precipitation that started during the mid-century drought in 1945-60. For the trends in streamflow that were significant, about half were positive and half were negative. Trends in precipitation in the San Pedro River Basin were similar to regional precipitation trends for spring and fall values and were different for summer and annual values. The largest difference was in annual precipitation, for which no trend tests were significant in the San Pedro River Basin, and 23 percent of the trend tests were significantly positive in the rest of the study area. Streamflow trends for the San Pedro River were different from regional streamflow trends. All seasonal flows for the San Pedro River, except winter flows, had significant decreasing trends, and seasonal flows for most streams in the rest of the study area had either no trend or a significant increasing trend. Two streams adjacent to the San Pedro River Basin (Whitewater Draw and Santa Cruz River), however, had significant decreasing trends in summer streamflow. Factors that caused the decreasing trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River at Charleston were investigated. Possible factors were fluctuations in precipitation and air temperature, changes in watershed characteristics, human activities, or changes in seasonal distribution of bank storage. This study statistically removed or accounted for the variation in streamflow caused by fluctuations in precipitation. Thus, the remaining variation or trend in streamflow was caused by factors other than precipitation. Two methods were used to partition the variation in streamflow and to determine trends in the partitioned variation: (1) regression analysis between precipitation and streamflow using all years in the record and evaluation of time trends in regression residuals, and (2) development of regression equations between precipitation and streamflow for three time periods (early, middle, and late parts of the record) and testing to determine if the three regression equations were significantly different. The methods were applied to monthly values of total flow (average flow) and storm runoff (maximum daily mean flow) for 1913-2002, and to monthly values of low flow (3-day low flow) for 1931-2002. Statistical tests provide strong evidence that factors other than precipitation caused a decrease in streamflow of the San Pedro River. Factors other than precipitation caused significant decreasing trends in streamflows for late spring through early winter and did not cause significant trends f

Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, Stewart A.

2010-01-01

Methods were developed to assess the effects of dams on streamflow and water temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries. These methods were used to estimate the flows and temperatures that would occur at 14 dam sites in the absence of upstream dams, and river models were applied to simulate downstream flows and temperatures under a no-dams scenario. The dams selected for this study include 13 dams built and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) as part of the Willamette Project, and 1 dam on the Clackamas River owned and operated by Portland General Electric (PGE). Streamflows in the absence of upstream dams for 2001-02 were estimated for USACE sites on the basis of measured releases, changes in reservoir storage, a correction for evaporative losses, and an accounting of flow effects from upstream dams. For the PGE dam, no-project streamflows were derived from a previous modeling effort that was part of a dam-relicensing process. Without-dam streamflows were characterized by higher peak flows in winter and spring and much lower flows in late summer, as compared to with-dam measured flows. Without-dam water temperatures were estimated from measured temperatures upstream of the reservoirs (the USACE sites) or derived from no-project model results (the PGE site). When using upstream data to estimate without-dam temperatures at dam sites, a typical downstream warming rate based on historical data and downstream river models was applied over the distance from the measurement point to the dam site, but only for conditions when the temperature data indicated that warming might be expected. Regressions with measured temperatures from nearby or similar sites were used to extend the without-dam temperature estimates to the entire 2001-02 time period. Without-dam temperature estimates were characterized by a more natural seasonal pattern, with a maximum in July or August, in contrast to the measured patterns at many of the tall dam sites where the annual maximum temperature typically occurred in September or October. Without-dam temperatures also tended to have more daily variation than with-dam temperatures. Examination of the without-dam temperature estimates indicated that dam sites could be grouped according to the amount of streamflow derived from high-elevation, spring-fed, and snowmelt-driven areas high in the Cascade Mountains (Cougar, Big Cliff/Detroit, River Mill, and Hills Creek Dams: Group A), as opposed to flow primarily derived from lower-elevation rainfall-driven drainages (Group B). Annual maximum temperatures for Group A ranged from 15 to 20 degree(s)C, expressed as the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADM), whereas annual maximum 7dADM temperatures for Group B ranged from 21 to 25 degrees C. Because summertime stream temperature is at least somewhat dependent on the upstream water source, it was important when estimating without-dam temperatures to use correlations to sites with similar upstream characteristics. For that reason, it also is important to maintain long-term, year-round temperature measurement stations at representative sites in each of the Willamette River basin's physiographic regions. Streamflow and temperature estimates downstream of the major dam sites and throughout the Willamette River were generated using existing CE-QUAL-W2 flow and temperature models. These models, originally developed for the Willamette River water-temperature Total Maximum Daily Load process, required only a few modifications to allow them to run under the greatly reduced without-dam flow conditions. Model scenarios both with and without upstream dams were run. Results showed that Willamette River streamflow without upstream dams was reduced to levels much closer to historical pre-dam conditions, with annual minimum streamflows approximately one-half or less of dam-augmented levels. Thermal effects of the dams varied according to the time of year, from cooling in mid-summer to warm

Water resources management: Hydrologic characterization through hydrograph simulation may bias streamflow statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, W. H.; Kiang, J. E.

2017-12-01

The development, deployment and maintenance of water resources management infrastructure and practices rely on hydrologic characterization, which requires an understanding of local hydrology. With regards to streamflow, this understanding is typically quantified with statistics derived from long-term streamgage records. However, a fundamental problem is how to characterize local hydrology without the luxury of streamgage records, a problem that complicates water resources management at ungaged locations and for long-term future projections. This problem has typically been addressed through the development of point estimators, such as regression equations, to estimate particular statistics. Physically-based precipitation-runoff models, which are capable of producing simulated hydrographs, offer an alternative to point estimators. The advantage of simulated hydrographs is that they can be used to compute any number of streamflow statistics from a single source (the simulated hydrograph) rather than relying on a diverse set of point estimators. However, the use of simulated hydrographs introduces a degree of model uncertainty that is propagated through to estimated streamflow statistics and may have drastic effects on management decisions. We compare the accuracy and precision of streamflow statistics (e.g. the mean annual streamflow, the annual maximum streamflow exceeded in 10% of years, and the minimum seven-day average streamflow exceeded in 90% of years, among others) derived from point estimators (e.g. regressions, kriging, machine learning) to that of statistics derived from simulated hydrographs across the continental United States. Initial results suggest that the error introduced through hydrograph simulation may substantially bias the resulting hydrologic characterization.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows for unregulated streams in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, Jason M.

2010-01-01

Peak-streamflow regression equations were determined for estimating flows with exceedance probabilities from 50 to 0.2 percent for the state of Oklahoma. These regression equations incorporate basin characteristics to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency throughout the state by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. The most statistically significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, mean-annual precipitation, and main-channel slope. The regression equations are applicable for watershed basins with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation. The resulting regression equations had a standard model error ranging from 31 to 46 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at 231 streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2008 were used for the regression analysis. Gage peak-streamflow estimates were used from previous work unless 2008 gaging-station data were available, in which new peak-streamflow estimates were calculated. The U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application was used to obtain the independent variables required for the peak-streamflow regression equations. Limitations on the use of the regression equations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are described. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climate characteristics, and the peak-streamflow frequency estimates for the 231 gaging stations in and near Oklahoma are listed. Methodologies are presented to estimate peak streamflows at ungaged sites by using estimates from gaging stations on unregulated streams. For ungaged sites on urban streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency.

Regional regression equations for estimation of natural streamflow statistics in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Capesius, Joseph P.; Stephens, Verlin C.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board and the Colorado Department of Transportation, developed regional regression equations for estimation of various streamflow statistics that are representative of natural streamflow conditions at ungaged sites in Colorado. The equations define the statistical relations between streamflow statistics (response variables) and basin and climatic characteristics (predictor variables). The equations were developed using generalized least-squares and weighted least-squares multilinear regression reliant on logarithmic variable transformation. Streamflow statistics were derived from at least 10 years of streamflow data through about 2007 from selected USGS streamflow-gaging stations in the study area that are representative of natural-flow conditions. Basin and climatic characteristics used for equation development are drainage area, mean watershed elevation, mean watershed slope, percentage of drainage area above 7,500 feet of elevation, mean annual precipitation, and 6-hour, 100-year precipitation. For each of five hydrologic regions in Colorado, peak-streamflow equations that are based on peak-streamflow data from selected stations are presented for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year instantaneous-peak streamflows. For four of the five hydrologic regions, equations based on daily-mean streamflow data from selected stations are presented for 7-day minimum 2-, 10-, and 50-year streamflows and for 7-day maximum 2-, 10-, and 50-year streamflows. Other equations presented for the same four hydrologic regions include those for estimation of annual- and monthly-mean streamflow and streamflow-duration statistics for exceedances of 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90 percent. All equations are reported along with salient diagnostic statistics, ranges of basin and climatic characteristics on which each equation is based, and commentary of potential bias, which is not otherwise removed by log-transformation of the variables of the equations from interpretation of residual plots. The predictor-variable ranges can be used to assess equation applicability for ungaged sites in Colorado.

Report of the annual yield of the Arkansas River basin for the Arkansas River Basin Compact, Arkansas-Oklahoma,1983 water year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, M.A.; Lamb, T.E.

1984-01-01

The computed annual yield and deficiency of the subbasins as defined in the Arkansas River Compact, Arkansas-Oklahoma, are given in tables. Actual runoff from the subbasins and depletion caused by major reservoirs in the compact area are also given in tabular form. Monthly, maximum, minimum, and mean discharges are shown for the 14 streamflow stations used in computing annual yield. (USGS)

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

2017-06-02

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a small statistically significant increase in peaks greater than the base streamflow. The greatest increase was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) during 1962‒2012; the increase was 1.8 ft3/s per decade. There were no statistically significant trends in the number of floods equal to or greater than the 2-year recurrence interval flood flow.Twenty‒one monitoring wells were evaluated for statistically significant trends in annual mean water level, minimum annual water level, maximum annual water level, and annual range in water-level fluctuations. For four wells, a small statistically significant increase in annual mean water level was determined that ranged from 0.16 to 0.7 feet per decade. There was poor or no correlation between annual mean groundwater levels and annual mean streamflow and base flow. No correlation was determined between annual mean groundwater level and annual precipitation. Despite rapid population growth and land-use change since 1950, there appears to have been little or no detrimental effects on groundwater levels in 21 monitoring wells.Long-term precipitation and temperature data were available from the West Chester (1893‒2013) and Phoenixville, Pa. (1915‒2013) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations. No statistically significant trends in annual mean precipitation or annual mean temperature were determined for either station. Both weather stations had a significant decrease in the number of days per year with precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 inch. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures from the NOAA Southeastern Piedmont Climate Division increased 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (F) per decade between 1896 and 2014. The number of days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees F increased at West Chester and decreased at Phoenixville. No statistically significant trend was determined for annual snowfall amounts.Data from 1974 to 2013 for three stream water-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time.The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration.A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and average streamflow was 21.4 inches. Average runoff and base flow were 8.3 and 13.1 inches, respectively, and average evapotranspiration and estimation of errors was 27.2 inches."

Evaluation and trends of land cover, streamflow, and water quality in the North Canadian River Basin near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, 1968–2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.; Andrews, William J.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Oklahoma City, collected water-quality samples from the North Canadian River at the streamflow-gaging station near Harrah, Oklahoma (Harrah station), since 1968, and at an upstream streamflow-gaging station at Britton Road at Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (Britton Road station), since 1988. Statistical summaries and frequencies of detection of water-quality constituent data from water samples, and summaries of water-quality constituent data from continuous water-quality monitors are described from the start of monitoring at those stations through 2009. Differences in concentrations between stations and time trends for selected constituents were evaluated to determine the effects of: (1) wastewater effluent discharges, (2) changes in land-cover, (3) changes in streamflow, (4) increases in urban development, and (5) other anthropogenic sources of contamination on water quality in the North Canadian River downstream from Oklahoma City. Land-cover changes between 1992 and 2001 in the basin between the Harrah station and Lake Overholser upstream included an increase in developed/barren land-cover and a decrease in pasture/hay land cover. There were no significant trends in median and greater streamflows at either streamflow-gaging station, but there were significant downward trends in lesser streamflows, especially after 1999, which may have been associated with decreases in precipitation between 1999 and 2009 or construction of low-water dams on the river upstream from Oklahoma City in 1999. Concentrations of dissolved chloride, lead, cadmium, and chlordane most frequently exceeded the Criterion Continuous Concentration (a water-quality standard for protection of aquatic life) in water-quality samples collected at both streamflow-gaging stations. Visual trends in annual frequencies of detection were investigated for selected pesticides with frequencies of detection greater than 10 percent in all water samples collected at both streamflow-gaging stations. Annual frequencies of detection of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and bromacil increased with time. Annual frequencies of detection of atrazine, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, dichlorprop, and lindane decreased with time. Dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were significantly greater in water samples collected at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station, whereas specific conductance was greater at the Britton Road station. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and fecal coliform bacteria were not significantly different between stations. Daily minimum, mean, and maximum specific conductance collected from continuous water-quality monitors were significantly greater at the Britton Road station than in water samples collected at the Harrah station. Daily minimum, maximum, and diurnal fluctuations of water temperature collected from continuous water-quality monitors were significantly greater at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station. The daily maximums and diurnal range of dissolved oxygen concentrations were significantly greater in water samples collected at the Britton Road station than at the Harrah station, but daily mean dissolved oxygen concentrations in water at those streamflow-gaging stations were not significantly different. Daily mean and diurnal water temperature ranges increased with time at the Britton Road and Harrah streamflow-gaging stations, whereas daily mean and diurnal specific conductance ranges decreased with time at both streamflow-gaging stations from 1988–2009. Daily minimum dissolved oxygen concentrations collected from continuous water-quality monitors more frequently indicated hypoxic conditions at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station after 1999. Fecal coliform bacteria counts in water decreased slightly from 1988–2009 at the Britton Road station. The Seasonal Kendall's tau test indicated significant downward trends in

Trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in stream morphology in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 1939-99

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2000-01-01

The Fountain Creek watershed, located in and along the eastern slope of the Front Range section of the southern Rocky Mountains, drains approximately 930 square miles of parts of Teller, El Paso, and Pueblo Counties in eastern Colorado. Streamflow in the watershed is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff and storm runoff during the summer monsoon season. Flooding during the 1990?s has resulted in increased streambank erosion. Property loss and damage associated with flooding and bank erosion has cost area residents, businesses, utilities, municipalities, and State and Federal agencies millions of dollars. Precipitation (4 stations) and streamflow (6 stations) data, aerial photographs, and channel reconnaissance were used to evaluate trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in channel morphology. Trends were evaluated for pre-1977, post-1976, and period-of-record time periods. Analysis revealed the lack of trend in total annual and seasonal precipitation during the pre-1977 time period. In general, the analysis also revealed the lack of trend in seasonal precipitation for all except the spring season during the post-1976 time period. Trend analysis revealed a significant upward trend in long-term (period of record) total annual and spring precipitation data, apparently due to a change in total annual precipitation throughout the Fountain Creek watershed. During the pre-1977 time period, precipitation was generally below average; during the post- 1976 time period, total annual precipitation was generally above average. During the post- 1976 time period, an upward trend in total annual and spring precipitation was indicated at two stations. Because two of four stations evaluated had upward trends for the post-1976 period and storms that produce the most precipitation are isolated convection storms, it is plausible that other parts of the watershed had upward precipitation trends that could affect trends in streamflow. Also, because of the isolated nature of convection storms that hit some areas of the watershed and not others, it is difficult to draw strong conclusions on relations between streamflow and precipitation. Trends in annual instantaneous peak streamflow, 70th percentile, 90th percentile, maximum daily-mean streamflow (100th percentile), 7-, 14-, and 30-day high daily-mean stream- flow duration, minimum daily-mean streamflow (0th percentile), 10th percentile, 30th percentile, and 7-, 14-, 30-day low daily-mean streamflow duration were evaluated. In general, instantaneous peak streamflow has not changed significantly at most of the stations evaluated. Trend analysis revealed the lack of a significant upward trend in streamflow at all stations for the pre-1977 time period. Trend tests indicated a significant upward trend in high and low daily-mean streamflow statistics for the post-1976 period. Upward trends in high daily-mean streamflow statistics may be an indication that changes in land use within the watershed have increased the rate and magnitude of runoff. Upward trends in low daily-mean 2 Trends in Precipitation and Streamflow and Changes in Stream Morphology in the Fountain Creek Watershed, Colorado, 1939-99 streamflow statistics may be related to changes in water use and management. An analysis of the relation between streamflow and precipitation indicated that changes in water management have had a marked effect on streamflow. Observable change in channel morphology and changes in distribution and density of vegetation varied with magnitude, duration, and frequency of large streamflow events, and increases in the magnitude and duration of low streamflows. Although more subtle, low stream- flows were an important component of day-to-day channel erosion. Substantial changes in channel morphology were most often associated with infrequent large or catastrophic streamflow events that erode streambed and banks, alter stream course, and deposit large amounts of sediment in the flood plain.

Trends in selected streamflow and stream-channel characteristics for the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Kunze, Allison E.

2002-01-01

Monotonic upward trends in annual mean streamflows and annual 7-day low flows were identified statistically for the streamflow-gaging station on the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio. No monotonic trends were identified for the annual peak streamflow series or partial-duration series of peak streamflows augmented with annual peak streamflows that did not exceed a base discharge of 4,000 cubic feet per second. A plot of cumulative departure of annual precipitation from the long-term mean annual precipitation for the weather-observation station at Hiram, Ohio, indicates a relatively dry period extending from about 1910 to about 1968, followed by a relatively wet period extending from about 1968 to the late 1990s. A plot of cumulative departure of annual mean streamflow from the mean annual streamflow for the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio, closely mimics the shape of the precipitation departure plot, indicating that the annual mean streamflows increased in concert with annual precipitation. These synchronous trends likely explain why upward trends in annual mean streamflows and annual 7-day low flows were observed. A lack of trend in peak streamflows indicates that the intensity and severity of flood-producing storms did not increase appreciably along with the increases in annual precipitation. An analysis of point-of-zero-flow data indicates that the low-water control of the Chagrin River streamflow-gaging station tended to aggrade over the period 1930?93; however, the magnitude of aggradation is sufficiently small that its effect on stages of moderate to large floods would be negligible. Stage values associated with reference streamflows of 500 and 5,000 cubic feet per second tended to remain fairly stable during the period from about 1950 to 1970 and then decreased slightly during the period from about 1970 to 1980, suggesting that the flood-carrying capacity of the stream increased somewhat during the latter period. Since a large flood on May 26, 1989, significant changes have occurred in the relation between stage and streamflow. The most recent relation indicates that stage values associated with streamflows of 500 and 5,000 cubic feet per second are about 0.5 foot and 0.1 foot higher, respectively, than the pre-1989 levels.

Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

2015-12-01

Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

Application of at-site peak-streamflow frequency analyses for very low annual exceedance probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Kiang, Julie E.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2017-07-17

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, has investigated statistical methods for probabilistic flood hazard assessment to provide guidance on very low annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimation of peak-streamflow frequency and the quantification of corresponding uncertainties using streamgage-specific data. The term “very low AEP” implies exceptionally rare events defined as those having AEPs less than about 0.001 (or 1 × 10–3 in scientific notation or for brevity 10–3). Such low AEPs are of great interest to those involved with peak-streamflow frequency analyses for critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants. Flood frequency analyses at streamgages are most commonly based on annual instantaneous peak streamflow data and a probability distribution fit to these data. The fitted distribution provides a means to extrapolate to very low AEPs. Within the United States, the Pearson type III probability distribution, when fit to the base-10 logarithms of streamflow, is widely used, but other distribution choices exist. The USGS-PeakFQ software, implementing the Pearson type III within the Federal agency guidelines of Bulletin 17B (method of moments) and updates to the expected moments algorithm (EMA), was specially adapted for an “Extended Output” user option to provide estimates at selected AEPs from 10–3 to 10–6. Parameter estimation methods, in addition to product moments and EMA, include L-moments, maximum likelihood, and maximum product of spacings (maximum spacing estimation). This study comprehensively investigates multiple distributions and parameter estimation methods for two USGS streamgages (01400500 Raritan River at Manville, New Jersey, and 01638500 Potomac River at Point of Rocks, Maryland). The results of this study specifically involve the four methods for parameter estimation and up to nine probability distributions, including the generalized extreme value, generalized log-normal, generalized Pareto, and Weibull. Uncertainties in streamflow estimates for corresponding AEP are depicted and quantified as two primary forms: quantile (aleatoric [random sampling] uncertainty) and distribution-choice (epistemic [model] uncertainty). Sampling uncertainties of a given distribution are relatively straightforward to compute from analytical or Monte Carlo-based approaches. Distribution-choice uncertainty stems from choices of potentially applicable probability distributions for which divergence among the choices increases as AEP decreases. Conventional goodness-of-fit statistics, such as Cramér-von Mises, and L-moment ratio diagrams are demonstrated in order to hone distribution choice. The results generally show that distribution choice uncertainty is larger than sampling uncertainty for very low AEP values.

Flood Frequency Curves - Use of information on the likelihood of extreme floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faber, B.

2011-12-01

Investment in the infrastructure that reduces flood risk for flood-prone communities must incorporate information on the magnitude and frequency of flooding in that area. Traditionally, that information has been a probability distribution of annual maximum streamflows developed from the historical gaged record at a stream site. Practice in the United States fits a Log-Pearson type3 distribution to the annual maximum flows of an unimpaired streamflow record, using the method of moments to estimate distribution parameters. The procedure makes the assumptions that annual peak streamflow events are (1) independent, (2) identically distributed, and (3) form a representative sample of the overall probability distribution. Each of these assumptions can be challenged. We rarely have enough data to form a representative sample, and therefore must compute and display the uncertainty in the estimated flood distribution. But, is there a wet/dry cycle that makes precipitation less than independent between successive years? Are the peak flows caused by different types of events from different statistical populations? How does the watershed or climate changing over time (non-stationarity) affect the probability distribution floods? Potential approaches to avoid these assumptions vary from estimating trend and shift and removing them from early data (and so forming a homogeneous data set), to methods that estimate statistical parameters that vary with time. A further issue in estimating a probability distribution of flood magnitude (the flood frequency curve) is whether a purely statistical approach can accurately capture the range and frequency of floods that are of interest. A meteorologically-based analysis produces "probable maximum precipitation" (PMP) and subsequently a "probable maximum flood" (PMF) that attempts to describe an upper bound on flood magnitude in a particular watershed. This analysis can help constrain the upper tail of the probability distribution, well beyond the range of gaged data or even historical or paleo-flood data, which can be very important in risk analyses performed for flood risk management and dam and levee safety studies.

Regional Patterns and Spatial Clusters of Nonstationarities in Annual Peak Instantaneous Streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

Information about hydrologic changes resulting from changes in climate, land use, and land cover is a necessity planning and design or water resources infrastructure. The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) evaluated and selected 12 methods to detect abrupt and slowly varying nonstationarities in records of maximum peak annual flows. They deployed a publicly available tool[1]in 2016 and a guidance document in 2017 to support identification of nonstationarities in a reproducible manner using a robust statistical framework. This statistical framework has now been applied to streamflow records across the continental United States to explore the presence of regional patterns and spatial clusters of nonstationarities in peak annual flow. Incorporating this geographic dimension into the detection of nonstationarities provides valuable insight for the process of attribution of these significant changes. This poster summarizes the methods used and provides the results of the regional analysis. [1] Available here - http://www.corpsclimate.us/ptcih.cfm

Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Heeswijk, Marijke

2006-01-01

Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of historical monthly mean unregulated streamflow based on reservoir outflows and storage changes were used as a surrogate for the missing data and to calibrate and test the model. The estimated unregulated streamflows were corrected for evaporative losses from Conconully Reservoir (about 1 ft3/s) and ground-water losses from the basin (about 2 ft3/s). The total of the corrections was about 9 percent of the mean uncorrected streamflow of 32.2 ft3/s (23,300 acre-ft/yr) for water years 1949-96. For the calibration period, the basinwide mean annual evapotranspiration was simulated to be 19.1 inches, or about 83 percent of the mean annual precipitation of 23.1 inches. Model calibration and testing indicated that the daily streamflows simulated using the precipitation-runoff model should be used only to analyze historical and forecasted annual mean and April-July mean streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Because of the paucity of model input data and uncertainty in the estimated unregulated streamflows, the model is not adequately calibrated and tested to estimate monthly mean streamflows for individual months, such as during low-flow periods, or for shorter periods such as during peak flows. No data were available to test the accuracy of simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek. As a result, simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek should be used with caution. For the calibration period (water years 1950-89), both the simulated mean annual streamflow and the simulated mean April-July streamflow compared well with the estimated uncorrected unregulated streamflow (UUS) and corrected unregulated streamflow (CUS). The simulated mean annual streamflow exceeded UUS by 5.9 percent and was less than CUS by 2.7 percent. Similarly, the simulated mean April-July streamflow exceeded UUS by 1.8 percent and was less than CUS by 3.1 percent. However, streamflow was significantly undersimulated during the low-flow, baseflow-dominated months of November through F

Trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow characteristics at 227 streamgages in the Missouri River watershed, water years 1960-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton, Parker A.; Anderson, Mark T.; Stamm, John F.

2014-01-01

The Missouri River and its tributaries are an important resource that serve multiple uses including agriculture, energy, recreation, and municipal water supply. Understanding historical streamflow characteristics provides relevant guidance to adaptive management of these water resources. Streamflow records in the Missouri River watershed were examined for trends in time series of annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A total of 227 streamgages having continuous observational records for water years 1960–2011 were examined. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine statistical significance of trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A trend was considered statistically significant for a probability value less than or equal to 0.10 that the Kendall’s tau value equals zero. Significant trends in annual streamflow were indicated for 101 out of a total of 227 streamgages. The Missouri River watershed was divided into six watershed regions and trends within regions were examined. The western and the southern parts of the Missouri River watershed had downward trends in annual streamflow (56 streamgages), whereas the eastern part of the watershed had upward trends in streamflow (45 streamgages). Seasonal and monthly streamflow trends reflected prevailing annual streamflow trends within each watershed region.

Flooding in the southern Midwestern United States, April–May 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heimann, David C.; Holmes, Robert R.; Harris, Thomas E.

2018-03-09

Excessive rainfall resulted in flooding on numerous rivers throughout the southern Midwestern United States (southern Midwest) in late April and early May of 2017. The heaviest rainfall, between April 28 and 30, resulted in extensive flooding from eastern Oklahoma to southern Indiana including parts of Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois.Peak-of-record streamflows were set at 21 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the southern Midwest during the resulting April–May 2017 flooding and each of the five States included in the study area had at least one streamgage with a peak of record during the flood. The annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimates for the April–May 2017 peak streamflows indicate that peaks at 5 USGS streamgages had AEPs of 0.2 percent or less (500-year recurrence interval or greater), and peak streamflows at 15 USGS streamgages had AEPs in the range from greater than 0.2 to 1 percent (500- to 100-year recurrence intervals).Examination of the magnitude of the temporal changes in median annual peak streamflows indicated positive increases, in general, throughout the study area for each of the 1930–2017, 1956–2017, 1975–2017, and 1989–2017 analysis periods. The median increase in peak streamflows was greatest in 1975–2017 and 1989–2017 with maximum increases of 8 to 10 percent per year. No stations in the 1975–2017 or 1989–2017 analysis period had median negative changes in peak streamflows.

Effects of alternative instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options in the Big River Area, Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.; Barlow, Paul M.

2005-01-01

Transient numerical ground-water-flow simulation and optimization techniques were used to evaluate potential effects of instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options and resultant streamflow depletions in the Big River Area, Rhode Island. The 35.7 square-mile (mi2) study area includes three river basins, the Big River Basin (30.9 mi2), the Carr River Basin (which drains to the Big River Basin and is 7.33 mi2 in area), the Mishnock River Basin (3.32 mi2), and a small area that drains directly to the Flat River Reservoir. The overall objective of the simulations was to determine the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn from the three basins when constrained by streamflow requirements at four locations in the study area and by maximum rates of withdrawal at 13 existing and hypothetical well sites. The instream-flow requirement for the outlet of each basin and the outfall of Lake Mishnock were the primary variables that limited the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. A requirement to meet seasonal ground-water-demand patterns also limits the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn by up to about 50 percent of the total withdrawals without the demand-pattern constraint. Minimum water-supply demands from a public water supplier in the Mishnock River Basin, however, did not have a substantial effect on withdrawals in the Big River Basin. Hypothetical dry-period instream-flow requirements and the effects of artificial recharge also affected the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. Results of simulations indicate that annual average ground-water withdrawal rates that range up to 16 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) can be withdrawn from the study area under simulated average hydrologic conditions depending on instream-flow criteria and water-supply demand patterns. Annual average withdrawals of 10 to 12 Mgal/d are possible for proposed demands of 3.4 Mgal/d in the Mishnock Basin, and for a constant annual instream-flow criterion of 0.5 cubic foot per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) at the four streamflow-constraint locations. An average withdrawal rate of 10 Mgal/d can meet estimates of future (2020) water-supply needs of surrounding communities in Rhode Island. This withdrawal rate represents about 13 percent of the average 2002 daily withdrawal from the Scituate Reservoir (76 Mgal/d), the State?s largest water supply. Average annual withdrawal rates of 6 to 7 Mgal/d are possible for more stringent instream-flow criteria that might be used during dry-period hydrologic conditions. Two example scenarios of dry-period instream-flow constraints were evaluated: first, a minimum instream flow of 0.1 cubic foot per second at any of the four constraint locations; and second, a minimum instream flow of 10 percent of the minimum monthly streamflow estimate for each streamflow-constraint location during the period 1961?2000. The State of Rhode Island is currently (2004) considering methods for establishing instream-flow criteria for streams within the State. Twelve alternative annual, seasonal, or monthly instream-flow criteria that have been or are being considered for application in southeastern New England were used as hypothetical constraints on maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates in management-model calculations. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 5 to 16 Mgal/d under five alternative annual instream-flow criteria. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 0 to 13.6 Mgal/d under seven alternative seasonal or monthly instream-flow criteria. The effect of ground-water withdrawals on seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows under each criterion also were compared. Evaluation of management-model results indicates that a single annual instream-flowcriterion may be sufficient to preserve seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows and meet water-supply demands in the Big River Area, because withdrawals from wells in the Big

The influence of north Pacific atmospheric circulation on streamflow in the west

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Peterson, David H.

1989-01-01

The annual cycle and nonseasonal variability of streamflow over western North America and Hawaii is studied in terms of atmospheric forcing elements. This study uses several decades of monthly average streamflow beginning as early as the late 1800's over a network of 38 stations. In addition to a strong annual cycle in mean streamflow and its variance at most of the stations, there is also a distinct annual cycle in the autocorrelation of anomalies that is related to the interplay between the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation. Of particular importance to these lag effects is the well-known role of water stored as snow pack, which controls the delay between peak precipitation and peak flow and also introduces persistence into the nonseasonal streamflow anomalies, with time scales from 1 month to over 1 year. The degree to which streamflow is related to winter atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific and western North America is tested using correlations with time averaged, gridded sea level pressure (SLP), which begins in 1899. Streamflow fluctuations show significant large-scale correlations for the winter (December through February) mean SLP anomaly patterns over the North Pacific with maximum correlations ranging from 0.3 to about 0.6. For streams along the west coast corridor the circulation pattern associated with positive streamflow anomalies is low pressure centered off the coast to the west or northwest, indicative of increased winter storms and an anomalous westerly-to-southwesterly wind component. For streams in the interior positive streamflow anomalies are associated with a positive SLP anomaly stationed remotely over the central North Pacific, and with negative but generally weaker SLP anomalies locally. One important influence on streamflow variability is the strength of the Aleutian Low in winter. This is represented by the familiar Pacific-North America (PNA) index and also by an index defined herein the “CNP” (Central North Pacific). This index, beginning in 1899, is taken to be the average of the SLP anomaly south of the Aleutians and the western Gulf of Alaska. Correlations between PNA or CNP and regional anomalies reflect streamflow the alternations in strength and position of the mean North Pacific storm track entering North America as well as shifts in the trade winds over the subtropical North Pacific. Regions whose streamflow is best tuned to the PNA or CNP include coastal Alaska, the northwestern United States, and Hawaii; the latter two regions have the opposite sign anomaly as the former. The pattern of streamflow variations associated with El Niño is similar, but the El Niño signal also includes a tendency for greater than normal streamflow in the southwestern United States. These indices are significantly correlated with streamflow at one to two seasons in advance of the December–August period, which may allow modestly skillful forecasts. It is important to note that streamflow variability in some areas, such as British Columbia and California, does not respond consistently to these broad scale Pacific atmospheric circulation indices, but is related to regional atmospheric anomaly features over the eastern North Pacific. Spatially, streamflow anomalies are fairly well correlated over scales of several hundred kilometers. Inspection of the spatial anomalies of stream-flow in this study suggest an asymmetry in the spatial pattern of positive versus negative streamflow anomalies in the western United States: dry patterns have tended to be larger and more spatially coherent than wet patterns.

Streamflow statistics for selected streams in North Dakota, Minnesota, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2012-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for the periods of record through water year 2009 for selected active and discontinued U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in North Dakota, Minnesota, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan were compiled. The summaries for each streamflow-gaging station include a brief station description, a graph of the annual peak and annual mean discharge for the period of record, statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, monthly and annual flow durations, probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, annual peak discharge and corresponding gage height for the period of record, and monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Caldwell, Rodney R.; Stanley, Andrea K.

2014-01-01

This report documents the construction of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow in the Smith River watershed, Montana. This Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, constructed in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, can be used to examine the general hydrologic framework of the Smith River watershed, including quantification of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow; partitioning of streamflow between surface runoff and subsurface flow; and quantifying contributions to streamflow from several parts of the watershed. The model was constructed by using spatial datasets describing watershed topography, the streams, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. Time-series data (daily total precipitation, and daily minimum and maximum temperature) were input to the model to simulate daily streamflow. The model was calibrated for water years 2002–2007 and evaluated for water years 1996–2001. Though water year 2008 was included in the study period to evaluate water-budget components, calibration and evaluation data were unavailable for that year. During the calibration and evaluation periods, simulated-natural flow values were compared to reconstructed-natural streamflow data. These reconstructed-natural streamflow data were calculated by adding Bureau of Reclamation’s depletions data to the observed streamflows. Reconstructed-natural streamflows represent estimates of streamflows for water years 1996–2007 assuming there was no agricultural water-resources development in the watershed. Additional calibration targets were basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The model estimated the hydrologic processes in the Smith River watershed during the calibration and evaluation periods. Simulated-natural mean annual and mean monthly flows generally were the same or higher than the reconstructed-natural streamflow values during the calibration period, whereas they were lower during the evaluation period. The shape of the annual hydrographs for the simulated-natural daily streamflow values matched the shape of the hydrographs for the reconstructed-natural values for most of the calibration period, but daily streamflow values were underestimated during the evaluation period for water years 1996–1998. The model enabled a detailed evaluation of the components of the water budget within the Smith River watershed during the water year 1996–2008 study period. During this study period, simulated mean annual precipitation across the Smith River watershed was 16 inches, out of which 14 inches evaporated or transpired and 2 inches left the basin as streamflow. Per the precipitation-runoff model simulations, during most of the year, surface runoff rarely (less than 2 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008) makes up more than 10 percent of the total streamflow. Subsurface flow (the combination of interflow and groundwater flow) makes up most of the total streamflow (99 or more percent of total streamflow for 71 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008).

Streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter E in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Peter M.

2016-04-05

Chapter E of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, to provide an update of statewide streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana. Streamflow characteristics are presented for 408 streamflow-gaging stations in Montana and adjacent areas having 10 or more years of record. Data include the magnitude and probability of annual low and high streamflow, the magnitude and probability of low streamflow for three seasons (March–June, July–October, and November–February), streamflow duration statistics for monthly and annual periods, and mean streamflows for monthly and annual periods. Streamflow is considered to be regulated at streamflow-gaging stations where dams or other large-scale human modifications affect 20 percent or more of the contributing drainage basin. Separate streamflow characteristics are presented for the unregulated and regulated periods of record for streamflow-gaging stations with sufficient data.

Statistical Comparisons of watershed scale response to climate change in selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John; Moradkhani, Hamid; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

2011-01-01

In an earlier global climate-change study, air temperature and precipitation data for the entire twenty-first century simulated from five general circulation models were used as input to precalibrated watershed models for 14 selected basins across the United States. Simulated daily streamflow and energy output from the watershed models were used to compute a range of statistics. With a side-by-side comparison of the statistical analyses for the 14 basins, regional climatic and hydrologic trends over the twenty-first century could be qualitatively identified. Low-flow statistics (95% exceedance, 7-day mean annual minimum, and summer mean monthly streamflow) decreased for almost all basins. Annual maximum daily streamflow also decreased in all the basins, except for all four basins in California and the Pacific Northwest. An analysis of the supply of available energy and water for the basins indicated that ratios of evaporation to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to precipitation for most of the basins will increase. Probability density functions (PDFs) were developed to assess the uncertainty and multimodality in the impact of climate change on mean annual streamflow variability. Kolmogorov?Smirnov tests showed significant differences between the beginning and ending twenty-first-century PDFs for most of the basins, with the exception of four basins that are located in the western United States. Almost none of the basin PDFs were normally distributed, and two basins in the upper Midwest had PDFs that were extremely dispersed and skewed.

Streamflow Characteristics of Streams in the Helmand Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2008-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for all historical streamflow-gaging stations for the Helmand Basin upstream from the Sistan Wetlands are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamflow-gaging station include (1) manuscript (station description), (2) graph of the annual mean discharge for the period of record, (3) statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, (4) graph of the annual flow duration, (5) monthly and annual flow duration, (6) probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, (7) probability of occurrence of annual low discharges, (8) probability of occurrence of seasonal low discharges, (9) annual peak discharge and corresponding gage height for the period of record, and (10) monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

Statistical summaries of streamflow in Oklahoma through 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, R.L.

2002-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow records through 1999 for gaging stations in Oklahoma and parts of adjacent states are presented for 188 stations with at least 10 years of streamflow record. Streamflow at 113 of the stations is regulated for specific periods. Data for these periods were analyzed separately to account for changes in streamflow due to regulation by dams or other human modification of streamflow. A brief description of the location, drainage area, and period of record is given for each gaging station. A brief regulation history also is given for stations with a regulated streamflow record. This descriptive information is followed by tables of mean annual discharges, magnitude and probability of exceedance of annual high flows, magnitude and probability of exceedance of annual instantaneous peak flows, durations of daily mean flow, magnitude and probability of non-exceedance of annual low flows, and magnitude and probability of non-exceedance of seasonal low flows.

Hydrological Responses to Changes in the Rainfall Regime are Less Pronounced in Forested Basins: an Analysis of Southern Brazil, 1975-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chagas, V. B. P.; Chaffe, P. L. B.

2017-12-01

It is unknown to what extent the hydrological responses to changes in the rainfall regime vary across forested and non-forested landscapes. Southern Brazil is approximately 570000 km² and was naturally covered mostly by tropical and subtropical forests. In the last century, a large proportion of forests were replaced by agricultural activities. The rainfall regime has also changed substantially in the last decades. The annual rainfall, number and magnitude of extreme events, and number of non-rainy days have increased in most of the area. In this study, we investigated the changes in the regime of 142 streamflow gauges and 674 rainfall gauges in Southern Brazil, from 1975 to 2010. The changes in the regime were analyzed for forested basins (i.e., with more than 50% forest coverage) and non-forested basins (i.e., with less than 20% forest coverage). The area of the river basins ranged from 100 to 60000 km². We analyzed a total of six signatures that represent the regime, including annual averages, seasonality, floods, and droughts. The statistical trends of the signatures were calculated using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope. The results showed that the majority of basins with opposing signal trends for mean annual streamflow and rainfall are non-forested basins (i.e., basins with higher anthropogenic impacts). Forested basins had a lower correlation between trends in the streamflow and rainfall trends for the seasonality and the average duration of drought events. There was a lower variability in the annual maximum 1-day streamflow trends in the forested basins. Additionally, despite a decrease in the 31-day rainfall minima and an increase in the seasonality, in forested basins the 7-day streamflow minima increases were substantially larger than in non-forested basins. In summary, the forested basins were less responsive to the changes in the precipitation 1-day maxima, seasonality, number of dry days, and 31-day minima.

Interaction between stream temperature, streamflow, and groundwater exchanges in alpine streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, James E.

1998-01-01

Four alpine streams were monitored to continuously collect stream temperature and streamflow for periods ranging from a week to a year. In a small stream in the Colorado Rockies, diurnal variations in both stream temperature and streamflow were significantly greater in losing reaches than in gaining reaches, with minimum streamflow losses occurring early in the day and maximum losses occurring early in the evening. Using measured stream temperature changes, diurnal streambed infiltration rates were predicted to increase as much as 35% during the day (based on a heat and water transport groundwater model), while the measured increase in streamflow loss was 40%. For two large streams in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, annual stream temperature variations ranged from 0° to 25°C. In summer months, diurnal stream temperature variations were 30–40% of annual stream temperature variations, owing to reduced streamflows and increased atmospheric heating. Previous reports document that one Sierra stream site generally gains groundwater during low flows, while the second Sierra stream site may lose water during low flows. For August the diurnal streamflow variation was 11% at the gaining stream site and 30% at the losing stream site. On the basis of measured diurnal stream temperature variations, streambed infiltration rates were predicted to vary diurnally as much as 20% at the losing stream site. Analysis of results suggests that evapotranspiration losses determined diurnal streamflow variations in the gaining reaches, while in the losing reaches, evapotranspiration losses were compounded by diurnal variations in streambed infiltration. Diurnal variations in stream temperature were reduced in the gaining reaches as a result of discharging groundwater of relatively constant temperature. For the Sierra sites, comparison of results with those from a small tributary demonstrated that stream temperature patterns were useful in delineating discharges of bank storage following dam releases. Direct coupling may have occurred between streamflow and stream temperature for losing stream reaches, such that reduced streamflows facilitated increased afternoon stream temperatures and increased afternoon stream temperatures induced increased streambed losses, leading to even greater increases in both stream temperature and streamflow losses.

Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Driscoll, Daniel G.; Southard, Rodney E.; Koenig, Todd A.; Bender, David A.; Holmes, Robert R.

2014-01-01

During 2011, excess precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Red River of the North, Souris, and Mississippi River Basins. At different times from late February 2011 through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations having multiple rounds of flooding. This report provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for selected streamgages in the Central United States in areas affected by 2011 flooding. Annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) were analyzed for 321 streamgages for annual peak streamflow and for 211 streamgages for annual runoff volume. Some of the most exceptional flooding was for the Souris River Basin, where of 11 streamgages considered for AEP analysis of peak streamflow, flood peaks in 2011 exceeded the next largest peak of record by at least double for 6 of the longest-term streamgages (75 to 108 years of peak-flow record). AEPs for these six streamgages were less than 1 percent. AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were less than 1 percent for all seven Souris River streamgages considered for AEP analysis. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes exceeded previous maxima by double or more for 5 of the 7 streamgages (record lengths 52 to 108 years). For the Red River of the North Basin, AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were exceptional, with two streamgages having AEPs less than 0.2 percent, five streamgages in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent, and four streamgages in the range of 1 to 2 percent. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes also were exceptional, with all 11 of the aforementioned streamgages eclipsing previous long-term (62 to 110 years) annual maxima by about one-third or more. AEPs for peak streamflows in the upper Mississippi River Basin were not exceptional, with no AEPs less than 1 percent. AEPs for annual runoff volumes indicated less frequent recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than 1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000 (at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record (112 years of record) by about 24 percent. An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flooding along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maximum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent. In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicksburg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for 98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for 182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends, 36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend analyses used descriptive methods that did not include measures of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the northwestern part of the study area having downward trends and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area having upward trends.

A historical perspective on precipitation, drought severity, and streamflow in Texas during 1951-56 and 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winters, Karl E.

2013-01-01

Annual mean streamflow and streamflow-duration curves for the 1951–56 and 2011 water years were assessed for 19 unregulated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations. At eight of these streamflow-gaging stations, the annual mean streamflow was lower in 2011 than for any year during 1951–56; many of these stations are located in eastern Texas. Annual mean streamflows for streamflow-gaging stations in the Guadalupe, Blanco, and upper Frio River Basins were lower in 1956 than in 2011. The streamflow-duration curves for many streamflow-gaging stations indicate a lack of (or diminished) storm runoff during 2011. Low streamflows (those exceeded 90 to 95 percent of days) were lower for 1956 than for 2011 at seven streamflow-gaging stations. For most of these stations, the lowest of the low streamflows during 1951–56 occurred in 1956. During March to September 2011, record daily lows were measured at USGS streamflow-gaging station 08041500 Village Creek near Kountze, Tex., which has more than 70 years of record. Many other USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas started the 2011 water year with normal streamflow but by the end of the water year were flowing at near-record lows.

Annual peak streamflow and ancillary data for small watersheds in central and western Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwell, Glenn R.; Asquith, William H.

2011-01-01

Estimates of annual peak-streamflow frequency are needed for flood-plain management, assessment of flood risk, and design of structures, such as roads, bridges, culverts, dams, and levees. Regional regression equations have been developed and are used extensively to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged sites in natural (unregulated and rural or nonurbanized) watersheds in Texas (Asquith and Slade, 1997; Asquith and Thompson, 2008; Asquith and Roussel, 2009). The most recent regional regression equations were developed by using data from 638 Texas streamflow-gaging stations throughout the State with eight or more years of data by using drainage area, channel slope, and mean annual precipitation as predictor variables (Asquith and Roussel, 2009). However, because of a lack of sufficient historical streamflow data from small, rural watersheds in certain parts of the State (central and western), substantial uncertainity exists when using the regional regression equations for the purpose of estimating annual peak-streamflow frequency.

Estimation of average annual streamflows and power potentials for Alaska and Hawaii

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verdin, Kristine L.

2004-05-01

This paper describes the work done to develop average annual streamflow estimates and power potential for the states of Alaska and Hawaii. The Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used, along with climatic datasets, to develop flow and power estimates for every stream reach in the EDNA database. Estimates of average annual streamflows were derived using state-specific regression equations, which were functions of average annual precipitation, precipitation intensity, drainage area, and other elevation-derived parameters. Power potential was calculated through the use of the average annual streamflow and the hydraulic head of each reach, which is calculated from themore » EDNA digital elevation model. In all, estimates of streamflow and power potential were calculated for over 170,000 stream segments in the Alaskan and Hawaiian datasets.« less

A multiple wavelet coherency method for temporal streamflow-precipitation-temperature relationships in 17 small catchments on the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Liu, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change and human activities are two critical factors causing the dramatical variations of streamflow in the Yellow River Basin of China during the last several decades. More and more attention has been paid to the temporal relationships of streamflow with precipitation and temperature recently. The objective of the current study was to explore the contributions of precipitation and temperature to the temporal variations of streamflow on the Loess Plateau using a multiple wavelet coherency method. Annual streamflow during 1961-2013 for 17 small catchments were collected from the Yellow River Conservancy Commission and annual precipitation and temperature for each catchment were derived from the meteorological data at the national weather stations across the Loess Plateau through the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. An abrupt decrease was observed in the annual streamflow around year 2000 for any of the 17 catchments investigated, which was believed to be related with the extensive Grain for Green Project. According to bivariate wavelet coherences, however, annual streamflow showed strong temporal variations with annual precipitation at 8 out of the 17 catchments, where the percentage area of significant coherency (PASC) exceeded 50%. Especially in Weihe and Yiluohe catchments, the corresponding PASC were close to 100%, suggesting that annual precipitation change accounted for almost all the temporal streamflow variations. Compared to annual precipitation, the temporal correlation of temperature with streamflow was relatively small, as implied in the lower mean wavelet coherence (MWC) and PASC. Moreover, including temperature in addition to precipitation in the multiple wavelet coherency analysis failed to increase either MWC or PASC in any of the 17 catchments except for Qingjianhe and Qiushuihe catchments. It was indicated that for most catchments on the Loess Plateau, annual temperature was not significantly different from the red noise in explaining the additional variation in streamflow. In view of the small PASC values resulted for most catchments, there existed other environmental and/or anthropogenic factors responsible for the temporal variations of streamflow.

Use of a forest sapwood area index to explain long-term variability in mean annual evapotranspiration and streamflow in moist eucalypt forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benyon, Richard G.; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Jaskierniak, Dominik; Kuczera, George; Haydon, Shane R.

2015-07-01

Mean sapwood thickness, measured in fifteen 73 year old Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis stands, correlated strongly with forest overstorey stocking density (R2 0.72). This curvilinear relationship was used with routine forest stocking density and basal area measurements to estimate sapwood area of the forest overstorey at various times in 15 research catchments in undisturbed and disturbed forests located in the Great Dividing Range, Victoria, Australia. Up to 45 years of annual precipitation and streamflow data available from the 15 catchments were used to examine relationships between mean annual loss (evapotranspiration estimated as mean annual precipitation minus mean annual streamflow), and sapwood area. Catchment mean sapwood area correlated strongly (R2 0.88) with catchment mean annual loss. Variation in sapwood area accounted for 68% more variation in mean annual streamflow than precipitation alone (R2 0.90 compared with R2 0.22). Changes in sapwood area accounted for 96% of the changes in mean annual loss observed after forest thinning or clear-cutting and regeneration. We conclude that forest inventory data can be used reliably to predict spatial and temporal variation in catchment annual losses and streamflow in response to natural and imposed disturbances in even-aged forests. Consequently, recent advances in mapping of sapwood area using airborne light detection and ranging will enable high resolution spatial and temporal mapping of mean annual loss and mean annual streamflow over large areas of forested catchment. This will be particularly beneficial in management of water resources from forested catchments subject to disturbance but lacking reliable long-term (years to decades) streamflow records.

Summary of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for 712 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Texas through 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Vrabel, Joseph; Roussel, Meghan C.

2007-01-01

Analysts and managers of surface-water resources might have interest in the zero-flow potential for U.S.Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. The USGS, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, initiated a data and reporting process to generate summaries of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for 712 USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. A summary of the percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for most active and inactive, continuous-record gaging stations in Texas provides valuable information by conveying the historical perspective for zero-flow potential for the watershed. The summaries of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for each station are graphically depicted using two thematic perspectives: annual and monthly. The annual perspective consists of graphs of annual percentages of zero streamflow by year with the addition of lines depicting the mean and median annual percentage of zero streamflow. Monotonic trends in the percentages of zero streamflow also are identified using Kendall's T. The monthly perspective consists of graphs of the percentage of zero streamflow by month with lines added to indicate the mean and median monthly percentage of zero streamflow. One or more summaries could be used in a watershed, river basin, or other regional context by analysts and managers of surface-water resources to guide scientific, regulatory, or other inquiries of zero-flow or other low-flow conditions in Texas.

Development of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate unregulated streamflow in the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, K.J.

2011-01-01

This report documents the development of a precipitation-runoff model for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Mont. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, can be used to simulate daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream and downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir for water-resources planning. Two input files are required to run the model. The time-series data file contains daily precipitation data and daily minimum and maximum air-temperature data from climate stations in and near the South Fork Flathead River Basin. The parameter file contains values of parameters that describe the basin topography, the flow network, the distribution of the precipitation and temperature data, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. A primary-parameter file was created for simulating streamflow during the study period (water years 1967-2005). The model was calibrated for water years 1991-2005 using the primary-parameter file. This calibration was further refined using snow-covered area data for water years 2001-05. The model then was tested for water years 1967-90. Calibration targets included mean monthly and daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, mean monthly unregulated streamflow downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily snapshots of basin snow-covered area. Simulated streamflow generally was in better agreement with observed streamflow at the upstream gage than at the downstream gage. Upstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was within 0.0 percent of observed mean annual streamflow for the calibration period and was about 2 percent higher than observed mean annual streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow upstream from the reservoir was about 1 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and about 4 percent higher than observed for the test period. Downstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was 17 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 12 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow downstream from the reservoir was 13 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 6 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Calibrating to solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, and snow-covered area improved the model representation of evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt processes. Simulated basin mean monthly solar radiation values for both the calibration and test periods were within 9 percent of observed values except during the month of December (28 percent different). Simulated basin potential evapotranspiration values for both the calibration and test periods were within 10 percent of observed values except during the months of January (100 percent different) and February (13 percent different). The larger percent errors in simulated potential evaporation occurred in the winter months when observed potential evapotranspiration values were very small; in January the observed value was 0.000 inches and in February the observed value was 0.009 inches. Simulated start of melting of the snowpack occurred at about the same time as observed start of melting. The simulated snowpack accumulated to 90-100 percent snow-covered area 1 to 3 months earlier than observed snowpack. This overestimated snowpack during the winter corresponded to underestimated streamflow during the same period. In addition to the primary-parameter file, four other parameter files were created: for a "recent" period (1991-2005), a historical period (1967-90), a "wet" period (1989-97), and a "dry" period (1998-2005). For each data file of projected precipitation and air temperature, a single parameter file can be used to simulate a s

Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.

2017-08-16

Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow.Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

Flood of June 11, 2010, in the Upper Little Missouri River watershed, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Wagner, Daniel M.

2011-01-01

Catastrophic flash flooding occurred in the early morning hours of June 11, 2010, in the upper Little Missouri River and tributary streams in southwest Arkansas. The flooding, which resulted in 20 fatalities and substantial property damage, was caused by as much as 4.7 inches of rain falling in the upper Little Missouri River watershed in 3 hours. The 4.7 inches of rain in 3 hours corresponds to estimated annual exceedance probability of approximately 2 percent for a 3-hour duration storm. The maximum total estimated rainfall in the upper Missouri River watershed was 5.3 inches in 6 hours. Peak streamflows and other hydraulic properties were determined at five ungaged locations and one gaged location in the upper Little Missouri River watershed.The peak streamflow for the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike, Arkansas was 40,100 cubic feet per second, estimated to have occurred between 4:00 AM and 4:30 AM the morning of June 11, 2010. The peak streamflow resulted in average water depths in the nearby floodplain (Area C of the Albert Pike Campground) of 7 feet flowing at velocities potentially as great as 11 feet per second. Peak streamflow 9.1 miles downstream on the Little Missouri at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage near Langley, Arkansas was 70,800 cubic feet per second, which corresponds to an estimated annual exceedance probability of less than 1 percent.

The effect of aspen harvest and growth on water yield in Minnesota

Treesearch

Elon S. Verry

1987-01-01

Annual water yield increased following the clearcutting of a mature aspen forest in years 1-9 and year 14 of subsequent aspen regrowth. Maximum increases of 85, 117, and 88 mm year-l occurred during the first 3 years of regrowth. Increases in streamflow volumes from snowmelt and early spring rains were minimal and more variable after harvest and...

Joint modelling of annual maximum drought severity and corresponding duration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosunoglu, Fatih; Kisi, Ozgur

2016-12-01

In recent years, the joint distribution properties of drought characteristics (e.g. severity, duration and intensity) have been widely evaluated using copulas. However, history of copulas in modelling drought characteristics obtained from streamflow data is still short, especially in semi-arid regions, such as Turkey. In this study, unlike previous studies, drought events are characterized by annual maximum severity (AMS) and corresponding duration (CD) which are extracted from daily streamflow of the seven gauge stations located in Çoruh Basin, Turkey. On evaluation of the various univariate distributions, the Exponential, Weibull and Logistic distributions are identified as marginal distributions for the AMS and CD series. Archimedean copulas, namely Ali-Mikhail-Haq, Clayton, Frank and Gumbel-Hougaard, are then employed to model joint distribution of the AMS and CD series. With respect to the Anderson Darling and Cramér-von Mises statistical tests and the tail dependence assessment, Gumbel-Hougaard copula is identified as the most suitable model for joint modelling of the AMS and CD series at each station. Furthermore, the developed Gumbel-Hougaard copulas are used to derive the conditional and joint return periods of the AMS and CD series which can be useful for designing and management of reservoirs in the basin.

Relationship Between Satellite-Derived Snow Cover and Snowmelt-Runoff Timing and Stream Power in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Foster, James L.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Riggs, George A.

2010-01-01

Earlier onset of springtime weather including earlier snowmelt has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack (and shrinking glaciers) has important implications for streamflow management. The amount of water in a snowpack influences stream discharge which can also influence erosion and sediment transport by changing stream power, or the rate at which a stream can do work such as move sediment and erode the stream bed. The focus of this work is the Wind River Range (WRR) in west-central Wyoming. Ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover, cloud- gap-filled (CGF) map products and 30 years of discharge and meteorological station data are studied. Streamflow data from six streams in the WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades, though no trend of either lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed using MODIS snow-cover maps within the decade of the 2000s. Results show a statistically-significant trend at the 95% confidence level (or higher) of increasing weekly maximum air temperature (for three out of the five meteorological stations studied) in the decade of the 1970s, and also for the 40-year study period. MODIS-derived snow cover (percent of basin covered) measured on 30 April explains over 89% of the variance in discharge for maximum monthly streamflow in the decade of the 2000s using Spearman rank correlation analysis. We also investigated stream power for Bull Lake Creek Above Bull Lake from 1970 to 2009; a statistically-significant end toward reduced stream power was found (significant at the 90% confidence level). Observed changes in streamflow and stream power may be related to increasing weekly maximum air temperature measured during the 40-year study period. The strong relationship between percent of basin covered and streamflow indicates that MODIS data is useful for predicting streamflow, leading to improved reservoir management

Relationship Between Satellite-Derived Snow Cover and Snowmelt-Runoff Timing and Stream Power in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Foster, James L.; Riggs, George A.; DiGirolano, Nocolo E.

2010-01-01

Earlier onset of springtime weather including earlier snowmelt has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack (and shrinking glaciers) has important implications for streamflow management. The amount of water in a snowpack influences stream discharge which can also influence erosion and sediment transport by changing stream power, or the rate at which a stream can do work such as move sediment and erode the stream bed. The focus of this work is the Wind River Range (WRR) in west-central Wyoming. Ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover, cloud- gap-filled (CGF) map products and 30 years of discharge and meteorological station a are studied. Streamflow data from six streams in the WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades, though no trend of either lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed using MODIS snow-cover maps within the decade of the 2000s. Results show a statistically-significant trend at the 95% confidence level (or higher) of increasing weekly maximum air temperature (for three out of the five meteorological stations studied) in the decade of the 1970s, and also for the 40-year study period. MODIS- derived snow cover (percent of basin covered) measured on 30 April explains over 89% of the variance in discharge for maximum monthly streamflow in the decade of the 2000s using Spearman rank correlation analysis. We also investigated stream power for Bull Lake Creek Above Bull Lake from 1970 to 2009; a statistically-significant trend toward reduced stream power was found (significant at the 90% confidence level). Observed changes in streamflow and stream power may be related to increasing weekly maximum air temperature measured during the 40-year study period. The strong relationship between percent of basin covered and streamflow indicates that MODIS data is useful for predicting streamflow, leading to improved reservoir management.

Streamflow simulation studies of the Hillsborough, Alafia, and Anclote Rivers, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turner, J.F.

1979-01-01

A modified version of the Georgia Tech Watershed Model was applied for the purpose of flow simulation in three large river basins of west-central Florida. Calibrations were evaluated by comparing the following synthesized and observed data: annual hydrographs for the 1959, 1960, 1973 and 1974 water years, flood hydrographs (maximum daily discharge and flood volume), and long-term annual flood-peak discharges (1950-72). Annual hydrographs, excluding the 1973 water year, were compared using average absolute error in annual runoff and daily flows and correlation coefficients of monthly and daily flows. Correlations coefficients for simulated and observed maximum daily discharges and flood volumes used for calibrating range from 0.91 to 0.98 and average standard errors of estimate range from 18 to 45 percent. Correlation coefficients for simulated and observed annual flood-peak discharges range from 0.60 to 0.74 and average standard errors of estimate range from 33 to 44 percent. (Woodard-USGS)

Streamflow characteristics at hydrologic bench-mark stations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawrence, C.L.

1987-01-01

The Hydrologic Bench-Mark Network was established in the 1960's. Its objectives were to document the hydrologic characteristics of representative undeveloped watersheds nationwide and to provide a comparative base for studying the effects of man on the hydrologic environment. The network, which consists of 57 streamflow gaging stations and one lake-stage station in 39 States, is planned for permanent operation. This interim report describes streamflow characteristics at each bench-mark site and identifies time trends in annual streamflow that have occurred during the data-collection period. The streamflow characteristics presented for each streamflow station are (1) flood and low-flow frequencies, (2) flow duration, (3) annual mean flow, and (4) the serial correlation coefficient for annual mean discharge. In addition, Kendall's tau is computed as an indicator of time trend in annual discharges. The period of record for most stations was 13 to 17 years, although several stations had longer periods of record. The longest period was 65 years for Merced River near Yosemite, Calif. Records of flow at 6 of 57 streamflow sites in the network showed a statistically significant change in annual mean discharge over the period of record, based on computations of Kendall's tau. The values of Kendall's tau ranged from -0.533 to 0.648. An examination of climatological records showed that changes in precipitation were most likely the cause for the change in annual mean discharge.

Rainfall-runoff characteristics and effects of increased urban density on streamflow and infiltration in the eastern part of the San Jacinto River basin, Riverside County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guay, Joel R.

2002-01-01

To better understand the rainfall-runoff characteristics of the eastern part of the San Jacinto River Basin and to estimate the effects of increased urbanization on streamflow, channel infiltration, and land-surface infiltration, a long-term (1950?98) time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces were simulated using the Hydrologic Simulation Program- FORTRAN (HSPF) rainfall-runoff model. Channel and land-surface infiltration includes rainfall or runoff that infiltrates past the zone of evapotranspiration and may become ground-water recharge. The study area encompasses about 256 square miles of the San Jacinto River drainage basin in Riverside County, California. Daily streamflow (for periods with available data between 1950 and 1998), and daily rainfall and evaporation (1950?98) data; monthly reservoir storage data (1961?98); and estimated mean annual reservoir inflow data (for 1974 conditions) were used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (North-South Fork subbasin) for 1950?91 and 1997?98 were 14,000 and 14,200 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.4 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the North-South Fork subbasin was 3,520 and 3,160 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the Bautista Creek streamflow-gaging station (Bautista Creek subbasin) for 1950?98 were 980 acre-feet and 991 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.1 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the Bautista Creek subbasin was 299 and 217 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River above State Street near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (Poppet subbasin) for 1998 were 23,400 and 23,500 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 0.4 percent. The simulated mean annual streamflow for the State Street gaging station at the outlet of the study basin and the simulated mean annual basin infiltration (combined infiltration from all the channels and land surfaces) were 8,720 and 41,600 acre-feet, respectively, for water years 1950-98. Simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station ranged from 16.8 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 70,400 acre-feet in water year 1993, and simulated basin infiltration ranged from 2,770 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 149,000 acre-feet in water year 1983.The effects of increased urbanization on the hydrology of the study basin were evaluated by increasing the size of the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas simulated in the calibrated rainfall-runoff model by 50 and 100 percent, respectively. The rainfall-runoff model simulated a long-term time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces using daily rainfall and potential evaporation data for water years 1950?98. Increasing the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas by 100 percent resulted in a 5-percent increase in simulated mean annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station, and a 2.2-percent increase in simulated basin infiltration. Results of a frequency analysis of the simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station showed that when effective impervious and non-effective impervious areas were increased 100 percent, simulated annual streamflow increased about 100 percent for low-flow conditions and was unchanged for high-flow conditions. The simulated increase in streamflow at the State Street gaging station potentially could infiltrate along the stream channel further downstream, outside of the model area.

Water resources of the Cook Inlet Basin, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freethey, Geoffrey W.; Scully, David R.

1980-01-01

Ground-water and surface-water systems of Cook Inlet basin, Alaska, are analyzed. Geologic and topographic features that control the movement and regional availability of ground water are explained and illustrated. Five aquifer systems beneath the most populous areas are described. Estimates of ground-water yield were determined for the region by using ground-water data for the populated areas and by extrapolating known subsurface conditions and interpreting subsurface conditions from surficial features in the other areas. Area maps of generalized geology, Quaternary sediment thickness, and general availability of ground water are shown. Surface-water resources are summarized by describing how basin characteristics affect the discharge in streams. Seasonal trend of streamflow for three types of streams is described. Regression equations for 4 streamflow characteristics (annual, monthly minimum, and maximum discharge) were obtained by using gaging station streamflow characteristics and 10 basin characteristics. In the 24 regression equations presented, drainage area is the most significant basin characteristic, but 5 others are used. Maps of mean annual unit runoff and minimum unit yield for 7 consecutive days with a recurrence interval of 10 years are shown. Historic discharge data at gaging stations is tabulated and representative low-flow and flood-flow frequency curves are shown. (USGS)

Streamflow conditions along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.

2017-11-14

The availability of adequate water to meet the present (2017) and future needs of humans, fish, and wildlife is a fundamental issue for the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation in northeast Kansas. Because Soldier Creek flows through the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation Reservation, it is an important tribal resource. An understanding of historical Soldier Creek streamflow conditions is required for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages along Soldier Creek were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends by Juracek (2017). Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to compute annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow. Results of the assessment are summarized in this fact sheet.

Development of a new IHA method for impact assessment of climate change on flow regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tao; Cui, Tong; Xu, Chong-Yu; Ciais, Philippe; Shi, Pengfei

2017-09-01

The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) based on 33 parameters in five dimensions (flow magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and change rate) have been widely used in evaluation of hydrologic alteration in river systems. Yet, inter-correlation seriously exists amongst those parameters, therefore constantly underestimates or overestimates actual hydrological changes. Toward the end, a new method (Representative-IHA, RIHA) is developed by removing repetitions based on Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) algorithm. RIHA is testified in evaluating effects of future climate change on hydro-ecology in the Niger River of Africa. Future flows are projected using three watershed hydrological models forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Results show that: (1) RIHA is able to eliminate self-correlations amongst IHA indicators and identify the dominant characteristics of hydrological alteration in the Upper Niger River, (2) March streamflow, September streamflow, December streamflow, 30-day annual maximum, low pluses duration and fall rates tends to increase over the period 2010-2099, while July streamflow and 90-day annual minimum streamflow shows decrease, (3) the Niger River will undergo moderate flow alteration under RCP8.5 in 2050s and 2080s and low alteration other scenarios, (4) future flow alteration may induce increase water temperatures, reduction dissolved oxygen and food resources. Consequently, aquatic biodiversity and fish community of Upper Niger River would become more vulnerable in the future. The new method enables more scientific evaluation for multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration under the context of climate change.

Water Resources Data, West Virginia, Water Year 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, S.M.; Rosier, M.T.; Crosby, G.R.

2004-01-01

Water-resources data for the 2003 water year for West Virginia consists of records of stream discharge, reservoir and ground-water levels, and water quality of streams and ground-water wells. This report contains discharge records for 70 streamflow-gaging stations; discharge records provided by adjacent states for 8 streamflow-gaging stations; annual maximum discharge at 16 crest-stage partial-record stations; stage records for 6 detention reservoirs; water-quality records for 2 stations; and water-level records for 8 observation wells. Locations of streamflow, detention reservoir, and water-quality stations are shown on figure 4. Locations of ground-water observation wells are shown on figure 5. Additional water data were collected at various sites, not involved in the systematic data-collection program, and are published as miscellaneous sites. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in West Virginia.

Water resources data-West Virginia, water year 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, S.M.; Rosier, M.T.; Crosby, G.R.

2005-01-01

Water-resources data for the 2004 water year for West Virginia consist of records of stream discharge, reservoir and ground-water levels, and water quality of streams and ground-water wells. This report contains discharge records for 65 streamflow-gaging stations; discharge records provided by adjacent states for 8 streamflow-gaging stations; annual maximum discharge at 17 crest-stage partial-record stations; stage records for 14 detention reservoirs; water-quality records for 2 stations; and water-level records for 10 observation wells. Locations of streamflow, detention reservoir, and water-quality stations are shown on figure 4. Locations of ground-water observation wells are shown on figure 5. Additional water-quality data were collected at various sites, not involved in the systematic data collection program, and are published as miscellaneous sites. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in West Virginia.

Quantifying streamflow change caused by forest disturbance at a large spatial scale: A single watershed study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang

2010-12-01

Climatic variability and forest disturbance are commonly recognized as two major drivers influencing streamflow change in large-scale forested watersheds. The greatest challenge in evaluating quantitative hydrological effects of forest disturbance is the removal of climatic effect on hydrology. In this paper, a method was designed to quantify respective contributions of large-scale forest disturbance and climatic variability on streamflow using the Willow River watershed (2860 km2) located in the central part of British Columbia, Canada. Long-term (>50 years) data on hydrology, climate, and timber harvesting history represented by equivalent clear-cutting area (ECA) were available to discern climatic and forestry influences on streamflow by three steps. First, effective precipitation, an integrated climatic index, was generated by subtracting evapotranspiration from precipitation. Second, modified double mass curves were developed by plotting accumulated annual streamflow against annual effective precipitation, which presented a much clearer picture of the cumulative effects of forest disturbance on streamflow following removal of climatic influence. The average annual streamflow changes that were attributed to forest disturbances and climatic variability were then estimated to be +58.7 and -72.4 mm, respectively. The positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) values in streamflow change indicated opposite change directions, which suggest an offsetting effect between forest disturbance and climatic variability in the study watershed. Finally, a multivariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was generated to establish quantitative relationships between accumulated annual streamflow deviation attributed to forest disturbances and annual ECA. The model was then used to project streamflow change under various timber harvesting scenarios. The methodology can be effectively applied to any large-scale single watershed where long-term data (>50 years) are available.

Statistical summaries of selected Iowa streamflow data through September 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.; O'Shea, Padraic S.; Weber, Jared R.; Nguyen, Kevin T.; Montgomery, Nicholas L.; Simonson, Adrian J.

2016-01-04

Statistical summaries of streamflow data collected at 184 streamgages in Iowa are presented in this report. All streamgages included for analysis have at least 10 years of continuous record collected before or through September 2013. This report is an update to two previously published reports that presented statistical summaries of selected Iowa streamflow data through September 1988 and September 1996. The statistical summaries include (1) monthly and annual flow durations, (2) annual exceedance probabilities of instantaneous peak discharges (flood frequencies), (3) annual exceedance probabilities of high discharges, and (4) annual nonexceedance probabilities of low discharges and seasonal low discharges. Also presented for each streamgage are graphs of the annual mean discharges, mean annual mean discharges, 50-percent annual flow-duration discharges (median flows), harmonic mean flows, mean daily mean discharges, and flow-duration curves. Two sets of statistical summaries are presented for each streamgage, which include (1) long-term statistics for the entire period of streamflow record and (2) recent-term statistics for or during the 30-year period of record from 1984 to 2013. The recent-term statistics are only calculated for streamgages with streamflow records pre-dating the 1984 water year and with at least 10 years of record during 1984–2013. The streamflow statistics in this report are not adjusted for the effects of water use; although some of this water is used consumptively, most of it is returned to the streams.

Water-level declines in the Madison area, Dane County, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLeod, R.S.

1978-01-01

The effects of anticipated pumping were examined with the use of a digital model. The maximum water-level decline from the beginning of pumping in 1882 until 1975 was about 75 feet in the sandstone aquifer and 10 to 20 feet in the upper aquifer. Additional declines between 1975 and 2000 were computed to be 10 to 30 feet in the sandstone aquifer and 5 to 10 feet in the upper aquifer. The average annual streamflow of the Yahara River at the McFarland gaging station was reduced 32 percent from the beginning of pumping to 1975. An additional 7 percent reduction in streamflow was computed for the period 1975 to 2000.

Geographic, geologic, and hydrologic summaries of intermontane basins of the northern Rocky Mountains, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendy, Eloise; Tresch, R.E.

1996-01-01

This report combines a literature review with new information to provide summaries of the geography, geology, and hydrology of each of 32 intermontane basins in western Montana. The summary of each intermontane basin includes concise descriptions of topography, areal extent, altitude, climate, 1990 population, land and water use, geology, surface water, aquifer hydraulic characteristics, ground-water flow, and ground-water quality. If present, geothermal features are described. Average annual and monthly temperature and precipitation are reported from one National Weather Service station in each basin. Streamflow data, including the drainage area, period of record, and average, minimum, and maximum historical streamflow, are reported for all active and discontinued USGS streamflow-gaging stations in each basin. Monitoring-well data, including the well depth, aquifer, period of record, and minimum and maximum historical water levels, are reported for all long-term USGS monitoring wells in each basin. Brief descriptions of geologic, geophysical, and potentiometric- surface maps available for each basin also are included. The summary for each basin also includes a bibliography of hydrogeologic literature. When used alone or in conjunction with regional RASA reports, this report provides a practical starting point for site-specific hydrogeologic investigations.

A Case Study of Differing Effects of Urbanization on Streamflow From Two Proximate Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandes, D.; Lott, F.

2007-12-01

The effects of urbanization on streamflow from two proximate watersheds (Little Lehigh Creek (LLC) and Monocacy Creek (MC)) are investigated. Despite close similarities in rainfall, population growth, land use, imperviousness, and geology of the watersheds, streamflows at the LLC gage have changed markedly over the past 50 years, while those at the MC gage have not. In LLC, there are significant increasing trends in annual stormflow volume, annual maximum flow, and flashiness, but there are no significant trends in these measures in MC. Neither stream shows significant trends in annual baseflow volume or low flow. It appears that the distinct difference in response to urbanization of these two streams can be ascribed to differences in 1) watershed geomorphology, 2) spatial distribution, composition, and infiltration characteristics of carbonate bedrock, and 3) the spatial pattern of land development in each watershed with respect to the gage location. In regards to geomorphology, there is a steeper main channel and narrower floodplains in LLC than in MC. Carbonate soil and bedrock (primarily dolostone) are distributed throughout much of LLC watershed but only in the lower half of MC watershed; however the lower MC watershed (primarily limestone) has much more abundant sinkholes and karst features than in the LLC watershed. Finally, residential and commercial development is concentrated in the upper two thirds of the LLC watershed, where travel times are such that these areas contribute to the peak flows measured at the gage. Development is concentrated in the lower third of the MC watershed, where it has had less effect on peak flows at the gage. Overall, the study indicates that relatively subtle differences between watershed characteristics and development patterns can result in significant differences in runoff and in how streamflow regimes may change in response to urbanization.

Predictors of High Streamflow Events in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, C.

2016-12-01

The Fraser River basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in Western North America, and is home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in June-July. However, while annual peak daily streamflow (APDF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APDF in below- or near-normal SWEmax years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APDFs complicates future projections of streamflow magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by both observations and an ensemble of CMIP3 climate models in an attempt to discover the proximate causes of anomalous APDF events in the FRB. At several hydrometric stations representing a range of elevations, the relative importance of a set of predictors characterizing the magnitude and timing of rainfall, snowfall, and temperature is examined within a regression framework. The results indicate that next to the magnitude of SWEmax, the rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWEmax is the most influential variable for predicting APDF magnitudes in the lower FRB. Finally, the role of large-scale climate modes of variability for APDF magnitude and timing in the basin will be briefly discussed.

Ground water occurrence and contributions to streamflow in an alpine catchment, Colorado Front Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, D.W.; Schrott, L.; Webb, R.; Campbell, D.H.; Torizzo, A.O.; Dornblaser, M.

2003-01-01

Ground water occurrence, movement, and its contribution to streamflow were investigated in Loch Vale, an alpine catchment in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Hydrogeomorphologic mapping, seismic refraction measurements, and porosity and permeability estimates indicate that talus slopes are the primary ground water reservoir, with a maximum storage capacity that is equal to, or greater than, total annual discharge from the basin (5.4 ± 0.8 × 106 m3). Although snowmelt and glacial melt provide the majority of annual water flux to the basin, tracer tests and gauging along a stream transect indicate that ground water flowing from talus can account for ≥75% of streamflow during storms and the winter base flow period. The discharge response of talus springs to storms and snowmelt reflects rapid transmittal of water through coarse debris at the talus surface and slower release of water from finer-grained sediments at depth.Ice stored in permafrost (including rock glaciers) is the second largest ground water reservoir in Loch Vale; it represents a significant, but seldom recognized, ground water reservoir in alpine terrain. Mean annual air temperatures are sufficiently cold to support permafrost above 3460 m; however, air temperatures have increased 1.1° to 1.4°C since the early 1990s, consistent with long-term (1976–2000) increases in air temperature measured at other high-elevation sites in the Front Range, European Alps, and Peruvian Andes. If other climatic factors remain constant, the increase in air temperatures at Loch Vale is sufficient to increase the lower elevational limit of permafrost by 150 to 190 m. Although this could cause a short-term increase in streamflow, it may ultimately result in decreased flow in the future.

Vegetation regulation on streamflow intra-annual variability through adaption to climate variations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi; Li, Shuai

2015-12-16

This study aims to provide a mechanistic explanation of the empirical patterns of streamflow intra-annual variability revealed by watershed-scale hydrological data across the contiguous United States. A mathematical extension of the Budyko formula with explicit account for the soil moisture storage change is used to show that, in catchments with a strong seasonal coupling between precipitation and potential evaporation, climate aridity has a dominant control on intra-annual streamflow variability, but in other catchments, additional factors related to soil water storage change also have important controls on how precipitation seasonality propagates to streamflow. More importantly, use of leaf area index asmore » a direct and indirect indicator of the above ground biomass and plant root system, respectively, reveals the vital role of vegetation in regulating soil moisture storage and hence streamflow intra-annual variability under different climate conditions.« less

Simulation of streamflow and estimation of recharge to the Edwards aquifer in the Hondo Creek, Verde Creek, and San Geronimo Creek watersheds, south-central Texas, 1951-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ockerman, Darwin J.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, constructed three watershed models using the Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN (HSPF) to simulate streamflow and estimate recharge to the Edwards aquifer in the Hondo Creek, Verde Creek, and San Geronimo Creek watersheds in south-central Texas. The three models were calibrated and tested with available data collected during 1992–2003. Simulations of streamflow and recharge were done for 1951–2003. The approach to construct the models was to first calibrate the Hondo Creek model (with an hourly time step) using 1992–99 data and test the model using 2000–2003 data. The Hondo Creek model parameters then were applied to the Verde Creek and San Geronimo Creek watersheds to construct the Verde Creek and San Geronimo Creek models. The simulated streamflows for Hondo Creek are considered acceptable. Annual, monthly, and daily simulated streamflows adequately match measured values, but simulated hourly streamflows do not. The accuracy of streamflow simulations for Verde Creek is uncertain. For San Geronimo Creek, the match of measured and simulated annual and monthly streamflows is acceptable (or nearly so); but for daily and hourly streamflows, the calibration is relatively poor. Simulated average annual total streamflow for 1951–2003 to Hondo Creek, Verde Creek, and San Geronimo Creek is 45,400; 32,400; and 11,100 acre-feet, respectively. Simulated average annual streamflow at the respective watershed outlets is 13,000; 16,200; and 6,920 acre-feet. The difference between total streamflow and streamflow at the watershed outlet is streamflow lost to channel infiltration. Estimated average annual Edwards aquifer recharge for Hondo Creek, Verde Creek, and San Geronimo Creek watersheds for 1951–2003 is 37,900 acrefeet (5.04 inches), 26,000 acre-feet (3.36 inches), and 5,940 acre-feet (1.97 inches), respectively. Most of the recharge (about 77 percent for the three watersheds together) occurs as streamflow channel infiltration. Diffuse recharge (direct infiltration of rainfall to the aquifer) accounts for the remaining 23 percent of recharge. For the Hondo Creek watershed, the HSPF recharge estimates for 1992–2003 averaged about 22 percent less than those estimated by the Puente method, a method the U.S. Geological Survey has used to compute annual recharge to the Edwards aquifer since 1978. HSPF recharge estimates for the Verde Creek watershed average about 40 percent less than those estimated by the Puente method.

Spatial patterns of March and September streamflow trends in Pacific Northwest Streams, 1958-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Steele, Madeline; Gannett, Marshall

2012-01-01

Summer streamflow is a vital water resource for municipal and domestic water supplies, irrigation, salmonid habitat, recreation, and water-related ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in the United States. This study detects significant negative trends in September absolute streamflow in a majority of 68 stream-gauging stations located on unregulated streams in the PNW from 1958 to 2008. The proportion of March streamflow to annual streamflow increases in most stations over 1,000 m elevation, with a baseflow index of less than 50, while absolute March streamflow does not increase in most stations. The declining trends of September absolute streamflow are strongly associated with seven-day low flow, January–March maximum temperature trends, and the size of the basin (19–7,260 km2), while the increasing trends of the fraction of March streamflow are associated with elevation, April 1 snow water equivalent, March precipitation, center timing of streamflow, and October–December minimum temperature trends. Compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimated regression models, spatial error regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models effectively remove spatial autocorrelation in residuals. The GWR model results show spatial gradients of local R 2 values with consistently higher local R 2 values in the northern Cascades. This finding illustrates that different hydrologic landscape factors, such as geology and seasonal distribution of precipitation, also influence streamflow trends in the PNW. In addition, our spatial analysis model results show that considering various geographic factors help clarify the dynamics of streamflow trends over a large geographical area, supporting a spatial analysis approach over aspatial OLS-estimated regression models for predicting streamflow trends. Results indicate that transitional rain–snow surface water-dominated basins are likely to have reduced summer streamflow under warming scenarios. Consequently, a better understanding of the relationships among summer streamflow, precipitation, snowmelt, elevation, and geology can help water managers predict the response of regional summer streamflow to global warming.

Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

2018-02-01

Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Synthesis of monthly and annual streamflow records (water years 1950-2003) for Big Sandy, Clear, Peoples, and Beaver Creeks in the Milk River basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles

2006-01-01

To address concerns expressed by the State of Montana about the apportionment of water in the St. Mary and Milk River basins between Canada and the United States, the International Joint Commission requested information from the United States government about water that originates in the United States but does not cross the border into Canada. In response to this request, the U.S. Geological Survey synthesized monthly and annual streamflow records for Big Sandy, Clear, Peoples, and Beaver Creeks, all of which are in the Milk River basin in Montana, for water years 1950-2003. This report presents the synthesized values of monthly and annual streamflow for Big Sandy, Clear, Peoples, and Beaver Creeks in Montana. Synthesized values were derived from recorded and estimated streamflows. Statistics, including long-term medians and averages and flows for various exceedance probabilities, were computed from the synthesized data. Beaver Creek had the largest median annual discharge (19,490 acre-feet), and Clear Creek had the smallest median annual discharge (6,680 acre-feet). Big Sandy Creek, the stream with the largest drainage area, had the second smallest median annual discharge (9,640 acre-feet), whereas Peoples Creek, the stream with the second smallest drainage area, had the second largest median annual discharge (11,700 acre-feet). The combined median annual discharge for the four streams was 45,400 acre-feet. The largest combined median monthly discharge for the four creeks was 6,930 acre-feet in March, and the smallest combined median monthly discharge was 48 acre-feet in January. The combined median monthly values were substantially smaller than the average monthly values. Overall, synthesized flow records for the four creeks are considered to be reasonable given the prevailing climatic conditions in the region during the 1950-2003 base period. Individual estimates of monthly streamflow may have large errors, however. Linear regression was used to relate logarithms of combined annual streamflow to water years 1950-2003. The results of the regression analysis indicated a significant downward trend (regression line slope was -0.00977) for combined annual streamflow. A regression analysis using data from 1956-2003 indicated a slight, but not significant, downward trend for combined annual streamflow.

Snow Cover, Snowmelt Timing and Stream Power in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Foster, James L.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Riggs, George A.

2011-01-01

Earlier onset of springtime weather, including earlier snowmelt, has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (is greater than 70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack (and shrinking glaciers) has important implications for the management of streamflow. The amount of water in a snowpack influences stream discharge which can also influence erosion and sediment transport by changing stream power, or the rate at which a stream can do work, such as move sediment and erode the stream bed. The focus of this work is the Wind River Range (WRR) in west-central Wyoming. Ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover, cloud-gap-filled (CGF) map products and 30 years of discharge and meteorological station data are studied. Streamflow data from streams in WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades, though no trend of either lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed within the decade of the 2000s. Results show a statistically-significant trend at the 95% confidence level (or higher) of increasing weekly maximum air temperature (for three out of the five meteorological stations studied) in the decade of the 1970s, and also for the 40-year study period as a whole. The extent of snow-cover (percent of basin covered) derived from the lowest elevation zone (2500-3000 m) of the WRR, using MODIS CGF snow-cover maps, is strongly correlated with maximum monthly discharge on 30 April, where Spearman's Rank correlation, rs,=0.89 for the decade of the 2000s. We also investigated stream power for Bull Lake Creek above Bull Lake; and found a trend (significant at the 90% confidence level) toward reduced stream power from 1970 to 2009. Observed changes in streamflow and stream power may be related to increasing weekly maximum air temperature measured during the 40-year study period, possibly contributing to a reduction in snow cover. In addition, the strong relationship between percent of basin that was snow covered, and maximum monthly streamflow indicates that MODIS snow-cover maps are useful for predicting streamflow, and can be used to improve management of water resources in the drought-prone western United States.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Cannon, Alex J.; Hinzman, Larry

Climate change will shift the frequency, intensity, duration and persistence of extreme hydroclimate events and have particularly disastrous consequences in vulnerable systems such as the warm permafrost-dominated Interior region of boreal Alaska. This work focuses on recent research results from nonparametric trends and nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analyses at eight Interior Alaskan river basins for the past 50/60 years (1954/64–2013). Trends analysis of maximum and minimum streamflow indicates a strong (>+50%) and statistically significant increase in 11-day flow events during the late fall/winter and during the snowmelt period (late April/mid-May), followed by a significant decrease in the 11-day flowmore » events during the post-snowmelt period (late May and into the summer). The April–May–June seasonal trends show significant decreases in maximum streamflow for snowmelt dominated systems (<–50%) and glacially influenced basins (–24% to –33%). Annual maximum streamflow trends indicate that most systems are experiencing declines, while minimum flow trends are largely increasing. Nonstationary GEV analysis identifies time-dependent changes in the distribution of spring extremes for snowmelt dominated and glacially dominated systems. Temperature in spring influences the glacial and high elevation snowmelt systems and winter precipitation drives changes in the snowmelt dominated basins. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was associated with changes occurring in snowmelt dominated systems, and the Arctic Oscillation was linked to one lake dominated basin, with half of the basins exhibiting no change in response to climate variability. The paper indicates that broad scale studies examining trend and direction of change should employ multiple methods across various scales and consider regime dependent shifts to identify and understand changes in extreme streamflow within boreal forested watersheds of Alaska.« less

Historical trends and extremes in boreal Alaska river basins

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina E.; Cannon, Alex J.; Hinzman, Larry

2015-05-12

Climate change will shift the frequency, intensity, duration and persistence of extreme hydroclimate events and have particularly disastrous consequences in vulnerable systems such as the warm permafrost-dominated Interior region of boreal Alaska. This work focuses on recent research results from nonparametric trends and nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analyses at eight Interior Alaskan river basins for the past 50/60 years (1954/64–2013). Trends analysis of maximum and minimum streamflow indicates a strong (>+50%) and statistically significant increase in 11-day flow events during the late fall/winter and during the snowmelt period (late April/mid-May), followed by a significant decrease in the 11-day flowmore » events during the post-snowmelt period (late May and into the summer). The April–May–June seasonal trends show significant decreases in maximum streamflow for snowmelt dominated systems (<–50%) and glacially influenced basins (–24% to –33%). Annual maximum streamflow trends indicate that most systems are experiencing declines, while minimum flow trends are largely increasing. Nonstationary GEV analysis identifies time-dependent changes in the distribution of spring extremes for snowmelt dominated and glacially dominated systems. Temperature in spring influences the glacial and high elevation snowmelt systems and winter precipitation drives changes in the snowmelt dominated basins. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was associated with changes occurring in snowmelt dominated systems, and the Arctic Oscillation was linked to one lake dominated basin, with half of the basins exhibiting no change in response to climate variability. The paper indicates that broad scale studies examining trend and direction of change should employ multiple methods across various scales and consider regime dependent shifts to identify and understand changes in extreme streamflow within boreal forested watersheds of Alaska.« less

Effects of snow persistence on streamflow generation in mountain regions of the western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, J. C.; Kampf, S. K.

2015-12-01

In mountain regions, both snowpack trend analyses and modeling studies suggest that streamflow generation is sensitive to loss of snow, yet we still lack understanding of where the most snow-sensitive regions are located. Snow persistence (SP), defined as the fraction of year that an area is snow-covered, is a useful variable for identifying snow-sensitive regions because it is easily observed globally using remote sensing. SP can affect streamflow generation by shifting the timing and magnitude of water input. All other factors being equal, we hypothesize that declining SP decreases the ratio of streamflow to precipitation (runoff ratio), and the magnitude of this effect is greater in arid climates than in humid climates. To evaluate whether streamflow generation declines with decreasing SP, we used the MODSCAG fractional snow cover product and 68 USGS reference catchments across five mountainous regions of the Western U.S. to compute annual and mean annual SP and discharge for water years 2000 to 2011. We used PRISM precipitation to compute the annual and mean annual runoff ratio for each catchment. Results show strong positive relationships between annual SP and annual runoff ratio in the Northern Rockies, Southern Rockies, and Basin and Range, where annual precipitation ranges from 0.25 m at low elevations in the Basin and Range to 2.5 m at high elevations in the Northern Rockies. Mean annual runoff ratios for these regions range from 0.32-0.53, and they also increase with mean annual SP. No relationships between annual SP and runoff ratios are evident in the wetter North Cascades and Sierra Nevada ranges, where annual precipitation ranges from 0.44 m in the low elevation Sierras to 4.8 m in the high elevation Cascades. Mean annual runoff ratios for these regions are 0.53-0.87 and show no clear dependence on SP. These results suggest that streamflow generation in arid regions may be most sensitive to loss of persistent winter snow.

Low-flow characteristics and flow-duration statistics for selected USGS continuous-record streamgaging stations in North Carolina through 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, J. Curtis

2015-03-12

In 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Carolina Division of Water Resources, compiled updated low-flow characteristics and flow-duration statistics for selected continuous-record streamgages in North Carolina. The compilation of updated streamflow statistics provides regulators and planners with relevant hydrologic information reflective of the recent droughts, which can be used to better manage the quantity and quality of streams in North Carolina. Streamflow records available through the 2012 water year1 were used to determine the annual (based on climatic year2) and winter 7-day, 10-year (7Q10, W7Q10) low-flow discharges, the 30-day, 2-year (30Q2) low-flow discharge, and the 7-day, 2-year (7Q2) low-flow discharge. Consequently, streamflow records available through March 31, 2012 (or the 2011 climatic year) were used to determine the updated low-flow characteristics. Low-flow characteristics were published for 177 unregulated sites, 56 regulated sites, and 33 sites known or considered to be affected by varying degrees of minor regulation and (or) diversions upstream from the streamgages (266 sites total). The updated 7Q10 discharges were compared for 63 streamgages across North Carolina where (1) long-term streamflow record consisted of 30 or more climatic years of data available as of the 1998 climatic year, and (2) streamflows were not known to be regulated. The 7Q10 discharges did not change for 3 sites, whereas increases and decreases were noted at 5 and 55 sites, respectively. Positive changes (increases) ranged from 4.3 percent (site 362) to 34.1 percent (site 112) with a median of 13.2 percent. Negative percentage changes (decreases) ranged from –3.3 percent (site 514) to –80.0 percent (site 308) with a median of –22.2 percent. The median percentage change for all 63 streamgages was –18.4 percent. Streamflow statistics determined as a part of this compilation included minimum, mean, maximum, and flow-duration statistics of daily mean discharges for categorical periods. Flow-duration statistics based on the daily mean discharge records were compiled in this study for the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles. Flow-duration statistics were determined for each complete water year of record at a streamgage as well as the available period of record (or selected periods if flows were regulated) and selected seasonal, monthly, and calendar day periods. In addition to the streamflow statistics compiled for each of the water years, the number of days the daily mean discharge was at or below the 10th percentile was summed for each water year as well as the number of events during the water year when streamflow was consistently at or below the 10th percentile. All low-flow characteristics for the streamgages were added into the StreamStatsDB, which is a database accessible to users through the recently released USGS StreamStats application for North Carolina. The minimum, mean, maximum, and flow-duration statistics of daily mean discharges based on the available (or selected if regulated flows) period of record were updated in the North Carolina StreamStatsDB. However, for the selected seasonal, monthly, calendar day, and annual water year periods, tab-delimited American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) tables of the streamflow statistics are available online to users from a link provided in the StreamStats application. 1The annual period from October 1 through September 30, designated by the year in which the period ends. 2The annual period from April 1 through March 31, designated by the year in which the period begins.

Decreased runoff response to precipitation, Little Missouri River Basin, northern Great Plains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Eleanor R.; Friedman, Jonathan M.

2017-01-01

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976-2012 compared to 1939-1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface-water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.

Streamflow Impacts of Biofuel Policy-Driven Landscape Change

PubMed Central

Khanal, Sami; Anex, Robert P.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Herzmann, Daryl E.

2014-01-01

Likely changes in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979–2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity. PMID:25289698

Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

2007-12-01

Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

Water quality, streamflow conditions, and annual flow-duration curves for streams of the San Juan–Chama Project, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, 1935-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falk, Sarah E.; Anderholm, Scott K.; Hafich, Katya A.

2013-01-01

The Albuquerque–Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority supplements the municipal water supply for the Albuquerque metropolitan area, in central New Mexico, with water diverted from the Rio Grande. Water diverted from the Rio Grande for municipal use is derived from the San Juan–Chama Project, which delivers water from streams in the southern San Juan Mountains in the Colorado River Basin in southern Colorado to the Rio Chama watershed and the Rio Grande Basin in northern New Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Albuquerque–Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, has compiled historical streamflow and water-quality data and collected new water-quality data to characterize the water quality and streamflow conditions and annual flow variability, as characterized by annual flow-duration curves, of streams of the San Juan–Chama Project. Nonparametric statistical methods were applied to calculate annual and monthly summary statistics of streamflow, trends in streamflow conditions were evaluated with the Mann–Kendall trend test, and annual variation in streamflow conditions was evaluated with annual flow-duration curves. The study area is located in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado and includes the Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, and Navajo River, tributaries of the San Juan River in the Colorado River Basin located in the southern San Juan Mountains, and Willow Creek and Horse Lake Creek, tributaries of the Rio Chama in the Rio Grande Basin. The quality of water in the streams in the study area generally varied by watershed on the basis of the underlying geology and the volume and source of the streamflow. Water from the Rio Blanco and Little Navajo River watersheds, primarily underlain by volcanic deposits, volcaniclastic sediments and landslide deposits derived from these materials, was compositionally similar and had low specific-conductance values relative to the other streams in the study area. Water from the Navajo River, Horse Lake Creek, and Willow Creek watersheds, which are underlain mostly by Cretaceous-aged marine shale, was compositionally similar and had large concentrations of sulfate relative to the other streams in the study area, though the water from the Navajo River had lower specific-conductance values than did the water from Horse Lake Creek above Heron Reservoir and Willow Creek above Azotea Creek. Generally, surface-water quality varied with streamflow conditions throughout the year. Streamflow in spring and summer is generally a mixture of base flow (the component of streamflow derived from groundwater discharged to the stream channel) diluted with runoff from snowmelt and precipitation events, whereas streamflow in fall and winter is generally solely base flow. Major- and trace-element concentrations in the streams sampled were lower than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary and secondary drinking-water standards and New Mexico Environment Department surface-water standards for the streams. In general, years with increased annual discharge, compared to years with decreased annual discharge, had a smaller percentage of discharge in March, a larger percentage of discharge in June, an interval of discharge derived from snowmelt runoff that occurred later in the year, and a larger discharge in June. Additionally, years with increased annual discharge generally had a longer duration of runoff, and the streamflow indicators occurred at dates later in the year than the years with less snowmelt runoff. Additionally, the seasonal distribution of streamflow was more strongly controlled by the change in the amount of annual discharge than by changes in streamflow over time. The variation of streamflow conditions over time at one streamflow-gaging station in the study area, Navajo River at Banded Peak Ranch, was not significantly monotonic over the period of record with a Kendall’s tau of 0.0426 and with a p-value of 0.5938 for 1937 to 2009 (a trend was considered statistically significant at a p-value ≤ 0.05). There was a relation, however, such that annual discharge was generally lower than the median during a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation interval and higher than the median during a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation interval. Streamflow conditions at Navajo River at Banded Peak Ranch varied nonmonotonically over time and were likely a function of complex climate pattern interactions. Similarly, the monthly distribution of streamflow varied nonmonotonically over time and was likely a function of complex climate pattern interactions that cause variation over time. Study results indicated that the median of the sum of the streamflow available above the minimum monthly bypass requirement from Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, and Navajo River was 126,240 acre-feet. The results also indicated that diversion of water for the San Juan–Chama Project has been possible for most months of most years.

Analysis of trends in streamflow and its linkages with rainfall and anthropogenic factors in Gomti River basin of North India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abeysingha, N. S.; Singh, Man; Sehgal, V. K.; Khanna, Manoj; Pathak, Himanshu

2016-02-01

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables such as streamflow, rainfall, and temperature provides useful information for effective water resources planning, designing, and management. Trends in observed streamflow at four gauging stations in the Gomti River basin of North India were assessed using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope for the 1982 to 2012 period. The relationships between trends in streamflow and rainfall were studied by correlation analyses. There was a gradual decreasing trend of annual, monsoonal, and winter seasonal streamflow ( p < 0.05) from the midstream to the downstream of the river and also a decreasing trend of annual streamflow for the 5-year moving averaged standardized anomalies of streamflow for the entire basin. The declining trend in the streamflow was attributed partly to the increased water withdrawal, to increased air temperature, to higher population, and partly to significant reducing trend of post monsoon rainfall especially at downstream. Upstream gauging station showed a significant increasing trend of streamflow (1.6 m3/s/year) at annual scale, and this trend was attributed to the significant increasing trend of catchment rainfall (9.54 mm/year). It was further evident in the significant coefficient of positive correlation ( ρ = 0.8) between streamflow and catchment rainfall. The decreasing trend in streamflow and post-monsoon rainfall especially towards downstream area with concurrent increasing trend of temperature indicates a drying tendency of the Gomti River basin over the study period. The results of this study may help stakeholders to design streamflow restoration strategies for sustainable water management planning of the Gomti River basin.

Methods for estimating streamflow at mountain fronts in southern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, S.D.

1994-01-01

The infiltration of streamflow is potential recharge to alluvial-basin aquifers at or near mountain fronts in southern New Mexico. Data for 13 streamflow-gaging stations were used to determine a relation between mean annual stream- flow and basin and climatic conditions. Regression analysis was used to develop an equation that can be used to estimate mean annual streamflow on the basis of drainage areas and mean annual precipi- tation. The average standard error of estimate for this equation is 46 percent. Regression analysis also was used to develop an equation to estimate mean annual streamflow on the basis of active- channel width. Measurements of the width of active channels were determined for 6 of the 13 gaging stations. The average standard error of estimate for this relation is 29 percent. Stream- flow estimates made using a regression equation based on channel geometry are considered more reliable than estimates made from an equation based on regional relations of basin and climatic conditions. The sample size used to develop these relations was small, however, and the reported standard error of estimate may not represent that of the entire population. Active-channel-width measurements were made at 23 ungaged sites along the Rio Grande upstream from Elephant Butte Reservoir. Data for additional sites would be needed for a more comprehensive assessment of mean annual streamflow in southern New Mexico.

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow of Major Ethiopian Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gizaw, M. S.; Zhang, S.; Biftu, G. F.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.; Moges, S. A.; Koivusalo, H.

2017-12-01

In this study, HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN) was used to analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow of four major river basins in Ethiopia: Awash, Baro, Genale and Tekeze. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was forced with daily climate data of 10 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 1971-2000 control period and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections of 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s). The ensemble median of these 10 GCMs projects the temperature in the four study areas to increase by about 2.3 ˚C (3.3 ˚C) in 2050s (2080s) whereas the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 6% (9%) in 2050s (2080s). This results in about 3% (6%) increase in the projected annual streamflow in Awash, Baro and Tekeze rivers whereas the annual streamflow of Genale river is projected to increase by about 18% (33%) in the 2050s (2080s). However, such projected increase in the mean annual streamflow due to increasing precipitation over Ethiopia contradicts the decreasing trends in mean annual precipitation observed in recent decades. Regional climate models of high resolutions could provide more realistic climate projections for Ethiopia's complex topography, thus reducing the uncertainties in future streamflow projections.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Haj, Adel E.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.

2016-01-01

Study regionEastern and central Montana.Study focusFish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model were used to simulate streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana, for a baseline period (water years 1982–1999) and three future periods: water years 2021–2038 (2030 period), 2046–2063 (2055 period), and 2071–2088 (2080 period).New hydrological insights for the regionProjected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21%) for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75%) for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15%) for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44%) for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

Methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics and development of annual flow-duration statistics for Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Kula, Stephanie P.

2013-01-01

This report presents the results of a study to develop methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics and for determining annual flow-duration statistics for Ohio streams. Regression techniques were used to develop equations for estimating 10-year recurrence-interval (10-percent annual-nonexceedance probability) low-flow yields, in cubic feet per second per square mile, with averaging periods of 1, 7, 30, and 90-day(s), and for estimating the yield corresponding to the long-term 80-percent duration flow. These equations, which estimate low-flow yields as a function of a streamflow-variability index, are based on previously published low-flow statistics for 79 long-term continuous-record streamgages with at least 10 years of data collected through water year 1997. When applied to the calibration dataset, average absolute percent errors for the regression equations ranged from 15.8 to 42.0 percent. The regression results have been incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats application for Ohio (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/ohio.html) in the form of a yield grid to facilitate estimation of the corresponding streamflow statistics in cubic feet per second. Logistic-regression equations also were developed and incorporated into the USGS StreamStats application for Ohio for selected low-flow statistics to help identify occurrences of zero-valued statistics. Quantiles of daily and 7-day mean streamflows were determined for annual and annual-seasonal (September–November) periods for each complete climatic year of streamflow-gaging station record for 110 selected streamflow-gaging stations with 20 or more years of record. The quantiles determined for each climatic year were the 99-, 98-, 95-, 90-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, 50-, 40-, 30-, 25-, 20-, 10-, 5-, 2-, and 1-percent exceedance streamflows. Selected exceedance percentiles of the annual-exceedance percentiles were subsequently computed and tabulated to help facilitate consideration of the annual risk of exceedance or nonexceedance of annual and annual-seasonal-period flow-duration values. The quantiles are based on streamflow data collected through climatic year 2008.

Flow characteristics at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolock, David

2003-01-01

This dataset represents point locations and flow characteristics for current (as of November 20, 2001) and historical U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the conterminous United States. The flow characteristics were computed from the daily streamflow data recorded at each streamgage for the period of record. The attributes associated with each streamgage include: Station number Station name Station latitude (decimal degrees in North American Datum of 1983, NAD 83) Station longitude (decimal degrees in NAD 83) First date (year, month, day) of streamflow data Last date (year, month, day) of streamflow data Number of days of streamflow data Minimum and maximum daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) Percentiles (1, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, 75, 80, 90, 95, 99) of daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) Average and standard deviation of daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) Mean annual base-flow index (BFI: see supplemental information) computed for the period of record (fraction, ranging from 0 to 1) Year-to-year standard deviation of the annual base-flow index computed for the period of record (fraction) Number of years of data used to compute the base-flow index (years) Reported drainage area (square miles) Reported contributing drainage area (square miles) National Water Information System (NWIS)-Web page URL for streamgage Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC, 8 digit) Hydrologic landscape region (HLR) River Reach File 1 (RF1) segment identification number (E2RF1##) Station numbers, names, locations, and drainage areas were acquired through the National Water Information System (NWIS)-Web (http://water.usgs.gov/nwis) on November 20, 2001. The streamflow data used to compute flow characteristics were copied from the Water server (water.usgs.gov:/www/htdocs/nwisweb/data1/discharge/) on November 2, 2001. The missing value indicator for all attributes is -99. Some streamflow characteristics are missing for: (1) streamgages measuring flow subject to tidal effects, which cause flow to reverse directions, (2) streamgages with site information but no streamflow data at the time the data were retrieved, and (3) streamgages with record length too short to compute the base-flow index.

Diverse multi-decadal changes in streamflow within a rapidly urbanizing region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diem, Jeremy E.; Hill, T. Chee; Milligan, Richard A.

2018-01-01

The impact of urbanization on streamflow depends on a variety of factors (e.g., climate, initial land cover, inter-basin transfers, water withdrawals, wastewater effluent, etc.). The purpose of this study is to examine trends in streamflow from 1986 to 2015 in a range of watersheds within the rapidly urbanizing Atlanta, GA metropolitan area. This study compares eight watersheds over three decades, while minimizing the influence of inter-annual precipitation variability. Population and land-cover data were used to analyze changes over approximately twenty years within the watersheds. Precipitation totals for the watersheds were estimated using precipitation totals at nearby weather stations. Multiple streamflow variables, such as annual streamflow, frequencies of high-flow days (HFDs), flashiness, and precipitation-adjusted streamflow, for the eight streams were calculated using daily streamflow data. Variables were tested for significant trends from 1986 to 2015 and significant differences between 1986-2000 and 2001-2015. Flashiness increased for all streams without municipal water withdrawals, and the four watersheds with the largest increase in developed land had significant increases in flashiness. Significant positive trends in precipitation-adjusted mean annual streamflow and HFDs occurred for the two watersheds (Big Creek and Suwanee Creek) that experienced the largest increases in development, and these were the only watersheds that went from majority forest land in 1986 to majority developed land in 2015. With a disproportionate increase in HFD occurrence during summer, Big Creek and Suwannee Creek also had a reduction in intra-annual variability of HFD occurrence. Watersheds that were already substantially developed at the beginning of the period and did not have wastewater discharge had declining streamflow. The most urbanized watershed (Peachtree Creek) had a significant decrease in streamflow, and a possible cause of the decrease was increasing groundwater infiltration into sewers. The impacts of urbanization on streamflow within the metropolitan area have undoubtedly been felt by a wide of range of communities.

Water resources data West Virginia water wear 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, S.M.; Taylor, B.C.; Crosby, G.R.

2002-01-01

Water-resources data for the 2001 water year for West Virginia consist of records of discharge and water quality of streams and water levels of observation wells. This report contains discharge records for 65 streamflow-gaging stations; discharge records provided by adjacent states for 7 streamflow-gaging stations; annual maximum discharge at 18 crest-stage partial-record stations; water-quality records for 4 stations; and water-level records for 10 observation wells. Locations of these sites are shown on figures 4 and 5. Additional water data were collected at various sites, not involved in the systematic data collection program, and are published as miscellaneous sites. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in West Virginia.

Climate and streamflow characteristics for selected streamgages in eastern South Dakota, water years 1945–2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoogestraat, Galen K.; Stamm, John F.

2015-11-02

For the streamgages with significant trends in residual streamflow (such as the streamgage on the Whetstone River and streamgages in the Big Sioux River Basin), land-use changes likely are minor factors, with the main factors probably being changes in the timing and frequency of large precipitation events and persistently wetter antecedent conditions. Changes in the relation between precipitation and streamflow since 1945 were evident when considering the runoff efficiency of the watershed. For example, the streamflow response to annual precipitation of 25 inches for the James River near Scotland increased from approximately 1,000 cubic feet per second for WYs 1945–1990 to about 2,500 cubic feet per second for WYs 1991–2013. The importance of antecedent conditions on annual mean streamflow also was indicated by the significance of the multiple linear regression coefficients of annual mean streamflow and precipitation from preceding water years for all but one streamgage. In addition, rising groundwater levels are present in wells in eastern South Dakota, particularly since the 1980s.

Annual and average estimates of water-budget components based on hydrograph separation and PRISM precipitation for gaged basins in the Appalachian Plateaus Region, 1900-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelms, David L.; Messinger, Terence; McCoy, Kurt J.

2015-07-14

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Program study of the Appalachian Plateaus aquifers, annual and average estimates of water-budget components based on hydrograph separation and precipitation data from parameter-elevation regressions on independent slopes model (PRISM) were determined at 849 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations from Mississippi to New York and covered the period of 1900 to 2011. Only complete calendar years (January to December) of streamflow record at each gage were used to determine estimates of base flow, which is that part of streamflow attributed to groundwater discharge; such estimates can serve as a proxy for annual recharge. For each year, estimates of annual base flow, runoff, and base-flow index were determined using computer programs—PART, HYSEP, and BFI—that have automated the separation procedures. These streamflow-hydrograph analysis methods are provided with version 1.0 of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox, which is a new program that provides graphing, mapping, and analysis capabilities in a Windows environment. Annual values of precipitation were estimated by calculating the average of cell values intercepted by basin boundaries where previously defined in the GAGES–II dataset. Estimates of annual evapotranspiration were then calculated from the difference between precipitation and streamflow.

Estimated Loads of Suspended Sediment and Selected Trace Elements Transported through the Milltown Reservoir Project Area Before and After the Breaching of Milltown Dam in the Upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, Water Year 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lambing, John H.; Sando, Steven K.

2009-01-01

This report presents estimated daily and cumulative loads of suspended sediment and selected trace elements transported during water year 2008 at three streamflow-gaging stations that bracket the Milltown Reservoir project area in the upper Clark Fork basin of western Montana. Milltown Reservoir is a National Priorities List Superfund site where sediments enriched in trace elements from historical mining and ore processing have been deposited since the construction of Milltown Dam in 1907. Milltown Dam was breached on March 28, 2008, as part of Superfund remedial activities to remove the dam and contaminated sediment that had accumulated in Milltown Reservoir. The estimated loads transported through the project area during the periods before and after the breaching of Milltown Dam, and for the entire water year 2008, were used to quantify the net gain or loss (mass balance) of suspended sediment and trace elements within the project area during the transition from a reservoir environment to a free-flowing river. This study was done in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Streamflow during water year 2008 compared to long-term streamflow, as represented by the record for Clark Fork above Missoula (water years 1930-2008), generally was below normal (long-term median) from about October 2007 through April 2008. Sustained runoff started in mid-April, which increased flows to near normal by mid-May. After mid-May, flows sharply increased to above normal, reaching a maximum daily mean streamflow of 16,800 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) on May 21, which essentially equaled the long-term 10th-exceedance percentile for that date. Flows substantially above normal were sustained through June, then decreased through the summer and reached near-normal by August. Annual mean streamflow during water year 2008 (3,040 ft3/s) was 105 percent of the long-term mean annual streamflow (2,900 ft3/s). The annual peak flow (17,500 ft3/s) occurred on May 21 and was 112 percent of the long-term mean annual peak flow (15,600 ft3/s). About 81 percent of the annual flow volume was discharged during the post-breach period. Daily loads of suspended sediment were estimated directly by using high-frequency sampling of the daily sediment monitoring. Daily loads of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, and zinc were estimated by using regression equations relating trace-element discharge to either streamflow or suspended-sediment discharge. Regression equations for estimating trace-element discharge in water year 2008 were developed from instantaneous streamflow and concentration data for periodic water-quality samples collected during all or part of water years 2004-08. The equations were applied to records of daily mean streamflow or daily suspended-sediment loads to produce estimated daily trace-element loads. Variations in daily suspended-sediment and trace-element loads generally coincided with variations in streamflow. Relatively small to moderately large daily net losses from the project area were common during the pre-breach period when low-flow conditions were prevalent. Outflow loads from the project area sharply increased immediately after the breaching of Milltown Dam and during the rising limb and peak flow of the annual hydrograph. Net losses of suspended sediment and trace elements from the project area decreased as streamflow decreased during the summer, eventually becoming small or reaching an approximate net balance between inflow and outflow. Estimated daily loads of suspended sediment and trace elements for all three stations were summed to determine cumulative inflow and outflow loads for the pre-breach and post-breach periods, as well as for the entire water year 2008. Overall, the mass balance between the combined inflow loads from two upstream source areas (upper Clark Fork and Blackfoot River basins) and the outflow loads at Clark Fork above Missoula indicates net losses

Streamflow characteristics for selected stations in and near the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison National Forests, southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard

2002-01-01

The U.S Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison National Forests, began a study in 2000 to develop selected streamflow characteristics for 60 streamflow-gaging stations in and near the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison National Forests. The study area is located in southwestern Colorado within the Gunnison River, Dolores River, and Plateau Creek Basins, which are tributaries of the Colorado River. In addition to presenting the compiled daily, monthly, and annual discharge data for the 60 stations, the report presents tabular and graphical results for the following computed streamflow characteristics: (1) Instantaneous peak-flow frequency; (2) flow duration for daily mean discharges on an annual (water year) basis and on a monthly basis, and flow duration for the annual and monthly mean discharges; (3) low-flow and high-flow frequency of daily mean discharges for periods of 1, 3, 7, 15, 30, 60, 120, and 183 consecutive days; and (4) annual and monthly mean and median discharges for each year and month of record, and frequency of the annual and monthly mean and median discharges. All discharge data and results from the streamflow-characteristics analyses are presented in Microsoft Excel workbooks on the enclosed CD-ROM.

How Does Snow Persistence Relate to Annual Streamflow in Mountain Watersheds of the Western U.S. With Wet Maritime and Dry Continental Climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, John C.; Saavedra, Freddy A.; Kampf, Stephanie K.

2018-04-01

With climate warming, many regions are experiencing changes in snow accumulation and persistence. These changes are known to affect streamflow volume, but the magnitude of the effect varies between regions. This research evaluates whether variables derived from remotely sensed snow cover can be used to estimate annual streamflow at the small watershed scale across the western U.S., a region with a wide range of climate types. We compared snow cover variables derived from MODIS, snow persistence (SP), and snow season (SS), to more commonly utilized metrics, snow fraction (fraction of precipitation falling as snow, SF), and peak snow water equivalent (SWE). Each variable represents different information about snow, and this comparison assesses similarities and differences between the snow metrics. Next, we evaluated how two snow variables, SP and SWE, related to annual streamflow (Q) for 119 USGS reference watersheds and examined whether these relationships varied for wet/warm (precipitation surplus) and dry/cold (precipitation deficit) watersheds. Results showed high correlations between all snow variables, but the slopes of these relationships differed between climates, with wet/warm watersheds displaying lower SF and higher SWE for the same SP. In dry/cold watersheds, both SP and SNODAS SWE correlated with Q spatially across all watersheds and over time within individual watersheds. We conclude that SP can be used to map spatial patterns of annual streamflow generation in dry/cold parts of the region. Applying this approach to the Upper Colorado River Basin demonstrates that 50% of streamflow comes from areas >3,000 masl. If the relationship between SP and Q is similar in other dry/cold regions, this approach could be used to estimate annual streamflow in ungauged basins.

Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation. 21. Hydrology and water balance of the Red River basin, New Mexico 1930-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naus, Cheryl A.; McAda, Douglas P.; Myers, Nathan C.

2006-01-01

A study of the hydrology of the Red River Basin of northern New Mexico, including development of a pre- mining water balance, contributes to a greater understanding of processes affecting the flow and chemistry of water in the Red River and its alluvial aquifer. Estimates of mean annual precipitation for the Red River Basin ranged from 22.32 to 25.19 inches. Estimates of evapotranspiration for the Red River Basin ranged from 15.02 to 22.45 inches or 63.23 to 94.49 percent of mean annual precipitation. Mean annual yield from the Red River Basin estimated using regression equations ranged from 45.26 to 51.57 cubic feet per second. Mean annual yield from the Red River Basin estimated by subtracting evapotranspiration from mean annual precipitation ranged from 55.58 to 93.15 cubic feet per second. In comparison, naturalized 1930-2004 mean annual streamflow at the Red River near Questa gage was 48.9 cubic feet per second. Although estimates developed using regression equations appear to be a good representation of yield from the Red River Basin as a whole, the methods that consider evapotranspiration may more accurately represent yield from smaller basins that have a substantial amount of sparsely vegetated scar area. Hydrograph separation using the HYSEP computer program indicated that subsurface flow for 1930-2004 ranged from 76 to 94 percent of streamflow for individual years with a mean of 87 percent of streamflow. By using a chloride mass-balance method, ground-water recharge was estimated to range from 7 to 17 percent of mean annual precipitation for water samples from wells in Capulin Canyon and the Hansen, Hottentot, La Bobita, and Straight Creek Basins and was 21 percent of mean annual precipitation for water samples from the Red River. Comparisons of mean annual basin yield and measured streamflow indicate that streamflow does not consistently increase as cumulative estimated mean annual basin yield increases. Comparisons of estimated mean annual yield and measured streamflow profiles indicates that, in general, the river is gaining ground water from the alluvium in the reach from the town of Red River to between Hottentot and Straight Creeks, and from Columbine Creek to near Thunder Bridge. The river is losing water to the alluvium from upstream of the mill area to Columbine Creek. Interpretations of ground- and surface-water interactions based on comparisons of mean annual basin yield and measured streamflow are supported further with water-level data from piezometers, wells, and the Red River.

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

Hydrogeology of parts of the Central Platte and Lower Loup Natural Resources Districts, Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peckenpaugh, J.M.; Dugan, J.T.

1983-01-01

Water-level declines of at least 15 feet have occurred in this heavily irrigated area of central Nebraska since the 1930's, and potential for additonal declines is high. To test the effects of additional irrigation development on water levels and streamflow , computer programs were developed that represent the surface-water system, soil zone, and saturated zone. A two-dimensional, finite-difference ground-water flow model of the 3,374 square-mile study area was developed and calibrated using steady-state and transient conditions. Three management alternatives were examined. First, 125,000 acre-feet of water would be diverted annually from the Platte River. During a water year in which flows are similar to those in 1957, months of zero streamflow at Grand Island increased from the historical 2, to 7. After 5 years of such low flows, in 36 nodes (997.4 acres per node) water levels declined more than 5 feet, with a maximum decline of 10.7 feet. A second alternative would allow no new ground-water development after 1980. The third alternative would allow irrigable but unirrigated land to be developed at an annual rate of 2, 5, and 8 percent and to apply irrigation water at 80, 100, and 120 percent of consumptive irrigation requirements. The maximum projected declines by 2020 are 119 and 139 feet, respectively, for the second and third alternatives. (USGS)

Peak data for U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations, Texas network and computer program to estimate peak-streamflow frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slade, R.M.; Asquith, W.H.

1996-01-01

About 23,000 annual peak streamflows and about 400 historical peak streamflows exist for about 950 stations in the surface-water data-collection network of Texas. These data are presented on a computer diskette along with the corresponding dates, gage heights, and information concerning the basin, and nature or cause for the flood. Also on the computer diskette is a U.S. Geological Survey computer program that estimates peak-streamflow frequency based on annual and historical peak streamflow. The program estimates peak streamflow for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals and is based on guidelines established by the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. Explanations are presented for installing the program, and an example is presented with discussion of its options.

Drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambeth-Beagles, R. S.; Troch, P. A.

2010-12-01

The Colorado River is the main water supply to the southwest region. As demand reaches the limit of supply in the southwest it becomes increasingly important to understand the dynamics of streamflow in the Colorado River and in particular the tributaries to the lower Colorado River. Climate change may pose an additional threat to the already-scarce water supply in the southwest. Due to the narrowing margin for error, water managers are keen on extending their ability to predict streamflow volumes on a mid-range to decadal scale. Before a predictive streamflow model can be developed, an understanding of the physical drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin is needed. This research addresses this need by applying multiple statistical methods to identify trends, patterns and relationships present in streamflow, precipitation and temperature over the past century in four contributing watersheds to the lower Colorado River. The four watersheds selected were the Paria, Little Colorado, Virgin/Muddy, and Bill Williams. Time series data over a common period from 1906-2007 for streamflow, precipitation and temperature were used for the initial analysis. Through statistical analysis the following questions were addressed: 1) are there observable trends and patterns in these variables during the past century and 2) if there are trends or patterns, how are they related to each other? The Mann-Kendall test was used to identify trends in the three variables. Assumptions regarding autocorrelation and persistence in the data were taken into consideration. Kendall’s tau-b test was used to establish association between any found trends in the data. Initial results suggest there are two primary processes occurring. First, statistical analysis reveals significant upward trends in temperatures and downward trends in streamflow. However, there appears to be no trend in precipitation data. These trends in streamflow and temperature speak to increasing evaporation and transpiration processes. Second, annual variability in streamflow is not statistically correlated with annual temperature variability but appears to be highly correlated with annual precipitation variability. This implies that on a year-to-year basis, changes in streamflow volumes are directly affected by precipitation and not temperature. Future development of a predictive streamflow model will need to take into consideration these two processes to obtain accurate results. In order to extend predictive skill to the multi-year scale relationships between precipitation, temperature and persistent climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Nino/Southern Oscillation will need to be examined.

Effects of land cover change on evapotranspiration and streamflow of small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin, Central Brazi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M. H.; Dias, L. C. P.; Macedo, M.; Coe, M. T.; Neill, C.

2014-12-01

This study assess the influence of land cover changes on evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin (Mato Grosso state, Brazil). Streamflow was measured in catchments with uniform land use for September 1, 2008 to August 31, 2010. We used models to simulate evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four most common land cover types found in the Upper Xingu: tropical forest, cerrado (savanna), pasture, and soybean croplands. We used INLAND to perform single point simulations considering tropical rainforest, cerrado and pasturelands, and AgroIBIS for croplands. Converting natural vegetation to agriculture substantially modifies evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments. Measured mean streamflow in soy catchments was about three times greater than that of forest catchments, while the mean annual amplitude of flow in soy catchments was more than twice that of forest catchments. Simulated mean annual evapotranspiration was 39% lower in agricultural ecosystems (pasture and soybean cropland) than in natural ecosystems (tropical rainforest and cerrado). Observed and simulated mean annual streamflows in agricultural ecosystems were more than 100% higher than in natural ecosystems. The accuracy of the simulations is improved by using field-measured soil hydraulic properties. The inclusion of local measurements of key soil parameters is likely to improve hydrological simulations in other tropical regions.

Effects of land cover change on evapotranspiration and streamflow of small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin, Central Brazi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M. H.; Dias, L. C. P.; Macedo, M.; Coe, M. T.; Neill, C.

2015-12-01

This study assess the influence of land cover changes on evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin (Mato Grosso state, Brazil). Streamflow was measured in catchments with uniform land use for September 1, 2008 to August 31, 2010. We used models to simulate evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four most common land cover types found in the Upper Xingu: tropical forest, cerrado (savanna), pasture, and soybean croplands. We used INLAND to perform single point simulations considering tropical rainforest, cerrado and pasturelands, and AgroIBIS for croplands. Converting natural vegetation to agriculture substantially modifies evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments. Measured mean streamflow in soy catchments was about three times greater than that of forest catchments, while the mean annual amplitude of flow in soy catchments was more than twice that of forest catchments. Simulated mean annual evapotranspiration was 39% lower in agricultural ecosystems (pasture and soybean cropland) than in natural ecosystems (tropical rainforest and cerrado). Observed and simulated mean annual streamflows in agricultural ecosystems were more than 100% higher than in natural ecosystems. The accuracy of the simulations is improved by using field-measured soil hydraulic properties. The inclusion of local measurements of key soil parameters is likely to improve hydrological simulations in other tropical regions.

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the lower San Antonio River Watershed, South-Central Texas, 2000-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lizarraga, Joy S.; Ockerman, Darwin J.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority, the Evergreen Underground Water Conservation District, and the Goliad County Groundwater Conservation District, configured, calibrated, and tested a watershed model for a study area consisting of about 2,150 square miles of the lower San Antonio River watershed in Bexar, Guadalupe, Wilson, Karnes, DeWitt, Goliad, Victoria, and Refugio Counties in south-central Texas. The model simulates streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater recharge using rainfall, potential ET, and upstream discharge data obtained from National Weather Service meteorological stations and USGS streamflow-gaging stations. Additional time-series inputs to the model include wastewater treatment-plant discharges, withdrawals for cropland irrigation, and estimated inflows from springs. Model simulations of streamflow, ET, and groundwater recharge were done for 2000-2007. Because of the complexity of the study area, the lower San Antonio River watershed was divided into four subwatersheds; separate HSPF models were developed for each subwatershed. Simulation of the overall study area involved running simulations of the three upstream models, then running the downstream model. The surficial geology was simplified as nine contiguous water-budget zones to meet model computational limitations and also to define zones for which ET, recharge, and other water-budget information would be output by the model. The model was calibrated and tested using streamflow data from 10 streamflow-gaging stations; additionally, simulated ET was compared with measured ET from a meteorological station west of the study area. The model calibration is considered very good; streamflow volumes were calibrated to within 10 percent of measured streamflow volumes. During 2000-2007, the estimated annual mean rainfall for the water-budget zones ranged from 33.7 to 38.5 inches per year; the estimated annual mean rainfall for the entire watershed was 34.3 inches. Using the HSPF model it was estimated that for 2000-2007, less than 10 percent of the annual mean rainfall on the study watershed exited the watershed as streamflow, whereas about 82 percent, or an average of 28.2 inches per year, exited the watershed as ET. Estimated annual mean groundwater recharge for the entire study area was 3.0 inches, or about 9 percent of annual mean rainfall. Estimated annual mean recharge was largest in water-budget zone 3, the zone where the Carrizo Sand outcrops. In water-budget zone 3, the estimated annual mean recharge was 5.1 inches or about 15 percent of annual mean rainfall. Estimated annual mean recharge was smallest in water-budget zone 6, about 1.1 inches or about 3 percent of annual mean rainfall. The Cibolo Creek subwatershed and the subwatershed of the San Antonio River upstream from Cibolo Creek had the largest and smallest basin yields, about 4.8 inches and 1.2 inches, respectively. Estimated annual ET and annual recharge generally increased with increasing annual rainfall. Also, ET was larger in zones 8 and 9, the most downstream zones in the watershed. Model limitations include possible errors related to model conceptualization and parameter variability, lack of data to quantify certain model inputs, and measurement errors. Uncertainty regarding the degree to which available rainfall data represent actual rainfall is potentially the most serious source of measurement error.

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

2013-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As the magnitude of air temperatures increase in the four basins, peak flows decrease by larger amounts. If precipitation is held constant (no change from historical values), 17 to 26 percent decreases in peak flow occur at the four basins when temperature is increased by 7.2°F. If temperature is held constant, 26 to 38 percent increases in peak flow result from a 15-percent increase in precipitation. The largest decreases in peak flows at the four basins result from 15-percent decreases in precipitation combined with temperature increases of 10.8°F. The largest increases in peak flows generally result from 30-percent increases in precipitation combined with 3.6 °F decreases in temperatures. In many cases when temperature and precipitation both increase, small increases or decreases in annual daily maximum peak flows result. For likely changes projected for the northeastern United States for the middle of the 21st century (temperature increase of 3.6 °F and precipitation increases of 0 to 15 percent), peak-flow changes at the four coastal Maine basins in this study are modeled to be evenly distributed between increases and decreases of less than 25 percent. Peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs (equivalent to 2-year and 100-year recurrence interval peak flows, respectively) were calculated for the four basins in the study using the PRMS-modeled annual daily maximum peak flows. Modeled peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs with adjusted temperatures and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled values. Changes in peak flows with 50-percent AEPs are similar to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow; changes in peak flows with 1-percent AEPs are similar in pattern to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow, but some of the changes associated with increasing precipitation are much larger than changes in annual daily maximum peak flow. Substantial decreases in maximum annual winter snowpack water equivalent are modeled to occur with increasing air temperatures at the four basins in the study. (Snowpack is the snow on the ground that accumulates during a winter, and water equivalent is the amount of water in a snowpack if it were melted.) The decrease in modeled peak flows with increasing air temperature, given no change in precipitation amount, is likely caused by these decreases in winter snowpack and resulting decreases in snowmelt runoff. This Scientific Investigations Report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Fact Sheet (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3021/.

Flooding in the Northeastern United States, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suro, Thomas P.; Roland, Mark A.; Kiah, Richard G.

2015-12-31

The annual exceedance probability (AEP) for 327 streamgages in the Northeastern United States were computed using annual peak streamflow data through 2011 and are included in this report. The 2011 peak streamflow for 129 of those streamgages was estimated to have an AEP of less than or equal to 1 percent. Almost 100 of these peak streamflows were a result of the flooding associated with Hurricane Irene in late August 2011. More extreme than the 1-percent AEP, is the 0.2-percent AEP. The USGS recorded peak streamflows at 31 streamgages that equaled or exceeded the estimated 0.2-percent AEP during 2011. Collectively, the USGS recorded peak streamflows having estimated AEPs of less than 1 percent in Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont and new period-of-record peak streamflows were recorded at more than 180 streamgages resulting from the floods of 2011.

Digital model of the Arikaree Aquifer near Wheatland, southeastern Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoxie, Dwight T.

1977-01-01

A digital model that mathematically simulates the flow of ground water, approximating the flow system as two-dimensional, has been applied to predict the long-term effects of irrigation and proposed industrial pumping from the unconfined Arikaree aquifer in a 400 square-mile area in southeastern Wyoming. Three cases that represent projected maximum, mean, and minimum combined irrigation and industrial ground-water withdrawals at annual rates of 16,176, 11,168, and 6,749 acre-feet, respectively, were considered. Water-level declines of more than 5 feet over areas of 124, 120, and 98 square miles and depletions in streamflow of 14.4, 8.9, and 7.2 cfs from the Laramie and North Laramie Rivers were predicted to occur at the end of a 40-year simulation period for these maximum, mean, and minimum withdrawal rates, respectively. A tenfold incrase in the vertical hydraulic conductivity that was assumed for the streambeds results in smaller predicted drawdowns near the Laramie and North Laramie Rivers and a 36 percent increase in the predicted depletion in streamflow for the North Laramie River. (Woodard-USGS)

Examining controls on peak annual streamflow and floods in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, Charles L.; Zwiers, Francis W.

2018-04-01

The Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in western North America, and home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in May-July. Nevertheless, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below- or near-normal SWE years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute nearly 70 % of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWEmax), soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB) and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWEmax (univariate Spearman correlation with APF of ρ ^ = 0.64; 0.70 (observations; VIC simulation)), the snowmelt rate (ρ ^ = 0.43 in VIC), the ENSO and PDO indices (ρ ^ = -0.40; -0.41) and (ρ ^ = -0.35; -0.38), respectively, and rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWEmax (ρ ^ = 0.26; 0.38), are the most influential predictors of APF magnitude in the FRB and its subbasins. The identification of these controls on annual peak flows in the region may be of use in understanding seasonal predictions or future projected streamflow changes.

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme" over time.

A nonparametric stochastic method for generating daily climate-adjusted streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, J. H.; Moglen, G. E.

2013-10-01

A daily stochastic streamflow generation model is presented, which successfully replicates statistics of the historical streamflow record and can produce climate-adjusted daily time series. A monthly climate model relates general circulation model (GCM)-scale climate indicators to discrete climate-streamflow states, which in turn control parameters in a daily streamflow generation model. Daily flow is generated by a two-state (increasing/decreasing) Markov chain, with rising limb increments randomly sampled from a Weibull distribution and the falling limb modeled as exponential recession. When applied to the Potomac River, a 38,000 km2 basin in the Mid-Atlantic United States, the model reproduces the daily, monthly, and annual distribution and dynamics of the historical streamflow record, including extreme low flows. This method can be used as part of water resources planning, vulnerability, and adaptation studies and offers the advantage of a parsimonious model, requiring only a sufficiently long historical streamflow record and large-scale climate data. Simulation of Potomac streamflows subject to the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1b, A2, and B1 emission scenarios predict a slight increase in mean annual flows over the next century, with the majority of this increase occurring during the winter and early spring. Conversely, mean summer flows are projected to decrease due to climate change, caused by a shift to shorter, more sporadic rain events. Date of the minimum annual flow is projected to shift 2-5 days earlier by the 2070-2099 period.

Improving Streamflow Forecasts Using Predefined Sea Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

2011-12-01

With the increasing evidence of climate variability, water resources managers in the western United States are faced with greater challenges of developing long range streamflow forecast. This is further aggravated by the increases in climate extremes such as floods and drought caused by climate variability. Over the years, climatologists have identified several modes of climatic variability and their relationship with streamflow. These climate modes have the potential of being used as predictor in models for improving the streamflow lead time. With this as the motivation, the current research focuses on increasing the streamflow lead time using predefine climate indices. A data driven model i.e. Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory is used to predict annual streamflow volume 3-year in advance. The SVM model is a learning system that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space, and is trained with a learning algorithm from the optimization theory. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and a new Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set of "Hondo" Region for a period of 1906-2005 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes. The SVM model is applied to three gages i.e. Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Based on the performance measures the model shows very good forecasts, and the forecast are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Previous research has identified NAO and ENSO as main drivers for extending streamflow forecast lead-time in the UCRB. Inclusion of "Hondo Region" SST information further improve the model's forecasting ability. The overall results of this study revealed that the annual streamflow of the UCRB is significantly influenced by predefine climate modes and the proposed SVM modeling technique incorporating oceanic-atmospheric oscillations is expected to be useful to water managers in the long-term management of the water resources within the UCRB.

Methodology for Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency for New Jersey Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Schopp, Robert D.

2009-01-01

Methodologies were developed for estimating flood magnitudes at the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals for unregulated or slightly regulated streams in New Jersey. Regression equations that incorporate basin characteristics were developed to estimate flood magnitude and frequency for streams throughout the State by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. Relations between flood-frequency estimates based on streamflow-gaging-station discharge and basin characteristics were determined by multiple regression analysis, and weighted by effective years of record. The State was divided into five hydrologically similar regions to refine the regression equations. The regression analysis indicated that flood discharge, as determined by the streamflow-gaging-station annual peak flows, is related to the drainage area, main channel slope, percentage of lake and wetland areas in the basin, population density, and the flood-frequency region, at the 95-percent confidence level. The standard errors of estimate for the various recurrence-interval floods ranged from 48.1 to 62.7 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2007 and basin characteristics determined using geographic information system techniques for 254 streamflow-gaging stations were used for the regression analysis. Drainage areas of the streamflow-gaging stations range from 0.18 to 779 mi2. Peak-flow data and basin characteristics for 191 streamflow-gaging stations located in New Jersey were used, along with peak-flow data for stations located in adjoining States, including 25 stations in Pennsylvania, 17 stations in New York, 16 stations in Delaware, and 5 stations in Maryland. Streamflow records for selected stations outside of New Jersey were included in the present study because hydrologic, physiographic, and geologic boundaries commonly extend beyond political boundaries. The StreamStats web application was developed cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., and was designed for national implementation. This web application has been recently implemented for use in New Jersey. This program used in conjunction with a geographic information system provides the computation of values for selected basin characteristics, estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies, and statistics for stream locations in New Jersey chosen by the user, whether the site is gaged or ungaged.

A history of annual streamflows from the 21 water-resource regions in the United States and Puerto Rico, 1951-83

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graczyk, D.J.; Krug, W.R.; Gebert, W.A.

1986-01-01

Streamflow from the Upper and Lower Colorado (Regions 14 and 15) appear to be heavily affected by large storage reservoirs. Streamflow from the Upper Colorado (Region 14) shows a decreasing streamflow in 1963 and 1964, which may be due to filling of Lake Powell.

Streamflow responses to road building and harvesting: A comparison with the equivalent clearcut area procedure

Treesearch

John G. King

1989-01-01

lncreases in annual streamflow and peak streamflows were determined on four small watersheds following timber harvesting and road building. The measured hydrologic changes are compared to those predicted by a methodology commonly used in the Forest Service's Northern Region, the equivalent clearcut area procedure. lncreases in peak streamflows are discussed with...

Estimating annual suspended-sediment loads in the northern and central Appalachian Coal region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

1985-01-01

Multiple-regression equations were developed for estimating the annual suspended-sediment load, for a given year, from small to medium-sized basins in the northern and central parts of the Appalachian coal region. The regression analysis was performed with data for land use, basin characteristics, streamflow, rainfall, and suspended-sediment load for 15 sites in the region. Two variables, the maximum mean-daily discharge occurring within the year and the annual peak discharge, explained much of the variation in the annual suspended-sediment load. Separate equations were developed employing each of these discharge variables. Standard errors for both equations are relatively large, which suggests that future predictions will probably have a low level of precision. This level of precision, however, may be acceptable for certain purposes. It is therefore left to the user to asses whether the level of precision provided by these equations is acceptable for the intended application.

Streamflow characteristics at streamgages in northern Afghanistan and selected locations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; Williams-Sether, Tara

2010-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for 79 historical streamgages in Northern Afghanistan and other selected historical streamgages are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamgage include (1) station description, (2) graph of the annual mean discharge for the period of record, (3) statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, (4) monthly and annual flow duration, (5) probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, (6) probability of occurrence of annual low discharges, (7) probability of occurrence of seasonal low discharges, (8) annual peak discharges for the period of record, and (9) monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

Impact of Different Time Series Streamflow Data on Energy Generation of a Run-of-River Hydropower Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kentel, E.; Cetinkaya, M. A.

2013-12-01

Global issues such as population increase, power supply crises, oil prices, social and environmental concerns have been forcing countries to search for alternative energy sources such as renewable energy to satisfy the sustainable development goals. Hydropower is the most common form of renewable energy in the world. Hydropower does not require any fuel, produces relatively less pollution and waste and it is a reliable energy source with relatively low operating cost. In order to estimate the average annual energy production of a hydropower plant, sufficient and dependable streamflow data is required. The goal of this study is to investigate impact of streamflow data on annual energy generation of Balkusan HEPP which is a small run-of-river hydropower plant at Karaman, Turkey. Two different stream gaging stations are located in the vicinity of Balkusan HEPP and these two stations have different observation periods: one from 1986 to 2004 and the other from 2000 to 2009. These two observation periods show different climatic characteristics. Thus, annual energy estimations based on data from these two different stations differ considerably. Additionally, neither of these stations is located at the power plant axis, thus streamflow observations from these two stream gaging stations need to be transferred to the plant axis. This requirement introduces further errors into energy estimations. Impact of different streamflow data and transfer of streamflow observations to plant axis on annual energy generation of a small hydropower plant is investigated in this study.

Hydrologic drought of water year 2011 compared to four major drought periods of the 20th century in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shivers, Molly J.; Andrews, William J.

2013-01-01

Water year 2011 (October 1, 2010, through September 30, 2011) was a year of hydrologic drought (based on streamflow) in Oklahoma and the second-driest year to date (based on precipitation) since 1925. Drought conditions worsened substantially in the summer, with the highest monthly average temperature record for all States being broken by Oklahoma in July (89.1 degrees Fahrenheit), June being the second hottest and August being the hottest on record for those months for the State since 1895. Drought conditions continued into the fall, with all of the State continuing to be in severe to exceptional drought through the end of September. In addition to effects on streamflow and reservoirs, the 2011 drought increased damage from wildfires, led to declarations of states of emergency, water-use restrictions, and outdoor burning bans; caused at least $2 billion of losses in the agricultural sector and higher prices for food and other agricultural products; caused losses of tourism and wildlife; reduced hydropower generation; and lowered groundwater levels in State aquifers. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, conducted an investigation to compare the severity of the 2011 drought with four previous major hydrologic drought periods during the 20th century – water years 1929–41, 1952–56, 1961–72, and 1976–81. The period of water years 1925–2011 was selected as the period of record because few continuous record streamflow-gaging stations existed before 1925, and gaps in time existed where no streamflow-gaging stations were operated before 1925. In water year 2011, statewide annual precipitation was the 2d lowest, statewide annual streamflow was 16th lowest, and statewide annual runoff was 42d lowest of those 87 years of record. Annual area-averaged precipitation totals by the nine National Weather Service climate divisions from water year 2011 were compared to those during four previous major hydrologic drought periods to show how precipitation deficits in Oklahoma varied by region. The nine climate divisions in Oklahoma had precipitation in water year 2011 ranging from 43 to 76 percent of normal annual precipitation, with the Northeast Climate Division having the closest to normal precipitation and the Southwest Climate Division having the greatest percentage of annual deficit. Based on precipitation amounts, water year 2011 ranked as the second driest of the 1925–2011 period, being exceeded only in one year of the 1952 to 1956 drought period. Regional streamflow patterns for water year 2011 indicate that streamflow in the Arkansas-White-Red water resources region, which includes all of Oklahoma, was relatively large, being only the 26th lowest since 1930, primarily because of normal or above-normal streamflow in the northern part of the region. Twelve long-term streamflow-gaging stations with periods of record ranging from 67 to 83 years were selected to show how streamflow deficits varied by region in Oklahoma. Statewide, streamflow in water year 2011 was greater than streamflows measured in years during the drought periods of 1929–41, 1952–56, 1961–72, and 1976–81. The hydrologic drought worsened going from the northeast toward the southwest in Oklahoma, ranging from 140 percent (above normal streamflow) in the northeast, to 13 percent of normal streamflow in southwestern Oklahoma. The relatively low streamflow in 2011 resulted in 83.3 percent of the statewide conservation storage being available at the end of the water year in major reservoirs, similar to conservation storage in the preceding severe drought year of 2006. The ranking of streamflow as the 16th smallest for the 1925–2011 period, despite precipitation being ranked the 2d smallest, may have been caused, in part, by the relatively large streamflow in northeastern Oklahoma during water year 2011.

Water resources of the Humboldt River Valley near Winnemucca, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, Philip M.

1965-01-01

This report, resulting from studies made by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the interagency Humboldt River Research Project, describes the qualitative and quantitative relations among the components of the hydrologic system in the Winnemucca Reach of the Humboldt River valley. The area studied includes the segment of the Humboldt River valley between the Comus and Rose Creek gaging stations. It is almost entirely in Humboldt County in north-central Nevada, and is about 200 miles downstream from the headwaters of the Humboldt River. Agriculture is the major economic activity in the area. Inasmuch as the valley lowlands receive an average of about 8 inches of precipitation per year and because the rate of evaporation from free-water surfaces is about six times the average annual precipitation, all crops in the area (largely forage crops) are irrigated. About 85 percent of the cultivated land is irrigated with Humboldt River water; the remainder is irrigated from about 20 irrigation wells. The consolidated rocks of the uplifted fault-block mountains are largely barriers to the movement of ground water and form ground-water and surface-water divides. Unconsolidated deposits of late Tertiary and Quaternary age underlie the valley lowlands to a maximum depth of about 5,000 feet. These deposits are in hydraulic continuity with the Humboldt River and store and transmit most of the economically recoverable ground water. Included in the valley fill is a highly permeable sand and gravel deposit having a maximum thickness of about 90-100 feet; it underlies the flood plain and bordering terraces throughout most of the project area. This deposit is almost completely saturated and contains about 500,000 acre-feet of ground water in storage. The Humboldt River is the source of 90-95 percent of the surface-water inflow to the area. In water years 1949-62 the average annual streamflow at the Comus gaging station at the upstream margin of the area was 172,100 acre-feet; outflow at the Rose Creek gaging station averaged about 155,400 acre-feet. Accordingly, the measured loss of Humboldt River streamflow averaged nearly 17,000 acre-feet per year. Most of this water was transpired by phreatophytes and crops, evaporated from free-water surfaces, and evaporated from bare soil. Inasmuch as practically no tributary streamflow normally discharges into the river in the Winnemucca reach and because pumpage is virtually negligible during the nonirrigation season, gains and losses of streamflow during most of the year reflect the close interrelation of the Humboldt River and the groundwater reservoir. An estimated average of about 14,000 acre-feet per year of ground-water underflow moves toward the Humboldt River from tributary areas. Much of this water discharges into the Humboldt River; hovever, some evaporates or is transpired before reaching the river. More than 65 percent of the average annual flow of the river horn-ally occurs in April, May, and June owing to the spring runoff. The stage of the river generally rises rapidly during these months causing water to move from the river to the ground-water reservoir. Furthermore, the period of high streamflow normally coincides with the irrigation season, and much of the excess irrigation water diverted from the river percolates downward to the zone of saturation. The net measured loss of streamflow in April-June, which averaged about 24,000 acre-feet in water years 1949-62, was about 7,000 acre-feet more than the average annual loss. The estimated net average annual increase of ground water in storage during these months in this period was on the order of 10,000 acre-feet. Following the spring runoff and the irrigation season, normally in July, some of the ground water stored in the flood-plain deposits during the spring runoff begins to discharge into the river. In addition, ground-water inflow from tributary areas again begins to discharge into the river. Experiments utilizin

Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Impacts on Future Runoff in the Luanhe River Basin in North China Using Markov and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, W.; Long, D.

2017-12-01

Both land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change exert significant impacts on runoff, which needs to be thoroughly examined in the context of urbanization, population growth, and climate change. The majority of studies focus on the impacts of either LUCC or climate on runoff in the upper reaches of the Panjiakou Reservoir in the Luanhe River basin, North China. In this study, first, two land use change matrices for periods 1970‒1980 and 1980‒2000 were constructed based on the theory of the Markov Chain which were used to predict the land use scenario of the basin in year 2020. Second, a distributed hydrological model, Soil Water Assessment Tools (SWAT), was set up and driven mainly by the China Gauge-based Daily Precipitation Analysis (CGDPA) product and outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP). Third, under the land use scenario in 2000, streamflow at the Chengde gauging station for the period 1998‒2014 was simulated with the CGDPA as input, and streamflow for the period 2015‒2025 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was simulated using the outputs from GCMs and compared under the land use scenarios in 2000 and 2020. Results show that during 2015‒2025, the ensemble average precipitation in summer (i.e., from June to August) may increase up to 20% but decrease by -16% in fall (i.e., from September to November). The streamflow may increase in all the seasons, particularly in spring (i.e., from March to May) and summer reaching 150% and 142%, respectively. Furthermore, the streamflow may increase even more when the land use scenario for the period 1998‒2025 remains the same as that in 2000. The minimum (61mm) and maximum (77mm) mean annual runoff depth occur under the RCP4.5 and RCP6 scenarios, respectively, compared with the mean annual observed streamflow of 33 mm from 1998 to 2014. Finally, we analyzed the correlation among the main land use types (i.e., agricultural land, forest, and pasture) and evapotranspiration, surface runoff contribution to streamflow (SURQ), groundwater contribution to streamflow (GWQ), and the sum of the surface runoff and groundwater contributions to streamflow (SSGQ), respectively. It was found that the increase in agricultural land may induce the increase in SURQ but the decrease in GWQ.

Surface-Water Conditions in Georgia, Water Year 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Painter, Jaime A.; Landers, Mark N.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Georgia Water Science Center-in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies-collected surface-water streamflow, water-quality, and ecological data during the 2005 Water Year (October 1, 2004-September 30, 2005). These data were compiled into layers of an interactive ArcReaderTM published map document (pmf). ArcReaderTM is a product of Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc (ESRI?). Datasets represented on the interactive map are * continuous daily mean streamflow * continuous daily mean water levels * continuous daily total precipitation * continuous daily water quality (water temperature, specific conductance dissolved oxygen, pH, and turbidity) * noncontinuous peak streamflow * miscellaneous streamflow measurements * lake or reservoir elevation * periodic surface-water quality * periodic ecological data * historical continuous daily mean streamflow discontinued prior to the 2005 water year The map interface provides the ability to identify a station in spatial reference to the political boundaries of the State of Georgia and other features-such as major streams, major roads, and other collection stations. Each station is hyperlinked to a station summary showing seasonal and annual stream characteristics for the current year and for the period of record. For continuous discharge stations, the station summary includes a one page graphical summary page containing five graphs, a station map, and a photograph of the station. The graphs provide a quick overview of the current and period-of-record hydrologic conditions of the station by providing a daily mean discharge graph for the water year, monthly statistics graph for the water year and period of record, an annual mean streamflow graph for the period of record, an annual minimum 7-day average streamflow graph for the period of record, and an annual peak streamflow graph for the period of record. Additionally, data can be accessed through the layer's link to the National Water Inventory System Web (NWISWeb) Interface.

ESTIMATING STREAMFLOW AND ASSOCIATED HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY, THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Methods to estimate streamflow and channel hydraulic geometry were developed for ungaged streams in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Observed mean annual streamflow and associated hydraulic geometry data from 75 gaging stations located in the Appalachian Plateau, the Ridge and Valley, an...

Streamflow characteristics of streams in southeastern Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.

2010-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for all historical streamgaging stations that have available data in the southeastern Afghanistan provinces of Ghazni, Khost, Logar, Paktya, and Wardak, and a portion of Kabul Province are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamgaging station include a station desciption, table of statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, table of monthly and annual flow duration, table of probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, table of probability of occurrence of annual low discharges, table of annual peak discharge and corresponding gage height for the period of record, and table of monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

Determination of baseline periods of record for selected streamflow-gaging stations in and near Oklahoma for use in modeling applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.

2010-01-01

Use of historical streamflow data from a least-altered period of record can be used in calibration of various modeling applications that are used to characterize least-altered flow and predict the effects of proposed streamflow alteration. This information can be used to enhance water-resources planning. A baseline period of record was determined for selected streamflow-gaging stations that can be used as a calibration dataset for modeling applications. The baseline period of record was defined as a period that is least-altered by anthropogenic activity and has sufficient streamflow record length to represent extreme climate variability. Streamflow data from 171 stations in and near Oklahoma with a minimum of 10 complete water years of daily streamflow record through water year 2007 and drainage areas that were less than 2,500 square miles were considered for use in the baseline period analysis. The first step to determine the least-altered period of record was to evaluate station information by using previous publications, historical station record notes, and information gathered from oral and written communication with hydrographers familiar with selected stations. The second step was to indentify stations that had substantial effects from upstream regulation by evaluating the location and extent of dams in the drainage basin. The third step was (a) the analysis of annual hydrographs and included visual hydrograph analysis for selected stations with 20 or more years of streamflow record, (b) analysis of covariance of double-mass curves, and (c) Kendall's tau trend analysis to detect statistically significant trends in base flow, runoff, total flow, and base-flow index related to anthropogenic activity for selected stations with 15 or more years of streamflow record. A preliminary least-altered period of record for each stream was identified by removing the period of streamflow record when streams were substantially affected by anthropogenic activity. After streamflow record was removed from designation as a least-altered period, stations that did not have at least 10 years of remaining continuous streamflow record were considered to have an insufficient baseline period for modeling applications. An optimum minimum period of record was determined for each of the least-altered periods for each station to ensure a sufficient streamflow record length to provide a representative sample of annual climate variability. An optimum minimum period of 10 years or more was evaluated by analyzing the variability of annual precipitation for selected 5-, 10-, 15-, 25-, and 35-year periods for each of 20 climate divisions that contained stations used in the baseline period analysis. The distribution of annual precipitation was compared for each consecutive overlapping 5-year period to the period 1925-2007 by using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The least-altered period of record for stations was also compared to the period 1925-2007 by using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The results of this analysis were used to determine how many years of annual precipitation data were needed for the selected period to be statistically similar to the distribution of annual precipitation data for a long-term period, 1925-2007. Minimum optimum periods ranged from 10 to 35 years and varied by climate division. A final baseline period was determined for 111 stations that had a baseline period of at least 10 years of continuous streamflow record after the record-elimination process. A suitable baseline period of record for use in modeling applications could not be identified for 58 of the initial 171 stations because of substantial anthropogenic alteration of the stream or drainage basin and for 2 stations because the least-altered period of record was not representative of annual climate variability. The baseline period for each station was rated ?excellent?, ?good?, ?fair?, ?poor?, or ?no baseline period.? This rating was based on a qualitative evaluation of t

Continental U.S. streamflow trends from 1940 to 2009 and their relationships with watershed spatial characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.; Vose, James M.; Nelson, Stacy A. C.

2015-08-01

Changes in streamflow are an important area of ongoing research in the hydrologic sciences. To better understand spatial patterns in past changes in streamflow, we examined relationships between watershed-scale spatial characteristics and trends in streamflow. Trends in streamflow were identified by analyzing mean daily flow observations between 1940 and 2009 from 967 U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. Results indicated that streamflow across the continental U.S., as a whole, increased while becoming less extreme between 1940 and 2009. However, substantial departures from the continental U.S. (CONUS) scale pattern occurred at the regional scale, including increased annual maxima, decreased annual minima, overall drying trends, and changes in streamflow variability. A subset of watersheds belonging to a reference data set exhibited significantly smaller trend magnitudes than those observed in nonreference watersheds. Boosted regression tree models were applied to examine the influence of watershed characteristics on streamflow trend magnitudes at both the CONUS and regional scale. Geographic location was found to be of particular importance at the CONUS scale while local variability in hydroclimate and topography tended to have a strong influence on regional-scale patterns in streamflow trends. This methodology facilitates detailed, data-driven analyses of how the characteristics of individual watersheds interact with large-scale hydroclimate forces to influence how changes in streamflow manifest.

Changes in Streamflow and the Flux of Nutrients in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin, USA, 1980-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William A.; Aulenbach, Brent T.; Vecchia, Aldo; Buxton, Herbert T.

2010-01-01

Nutrients and freshwater delivered by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers drive algal production in the northern Gulf of Mexico, which eventually results in the widespread occurrence of hypoxic bottom waters along the Louisiana and Texas coast. Researchers have demonstrated a relation between the extent of the hypoxic zone and the magnitude of streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and nutrient concentrations in the Mississippi River, with springtime streamflows and fluxes being the most predictive. In 1999 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the flux of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica at selected sites in the Mississippi Basin and to the Gulf of Mexico for 1980-1996. These flux estimates provided the baseline information used by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force to develop an Action Plan for reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The primary goal of the Action Plan was to achieve a reduction in the size (areal extent) of the hypoxic zone from an average of approximately 14,000 square kilometers in 1996-2000 to a 5-year moving average of less than 5,000 square kilometers by 2015. Improved statistical models and adjusted maximum likelihood estimation using USGS Load Estimator (LOADEST) software were used to estimate annual and seasonal nutrient fluxes for 1980-2007 at selected sites on the Mississippi River and its tributaries. These data provide a means to evaluate the influence of natural and anthropogenic effects on delivery of water and nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico; to define subbasins that are the most important contributors of nutrients to the gulf; and to investigate the relations among streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and the size and duration of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. A comparative analysis between the baseline period of 1980-1996 and 5-year moving averages thereafter indicate that the average annual streamflow and fluxes of total nitrogen, nitrate, orthophosphate, and silica to the Gulf of Mexico have decreased. However, the flux of total phosphorus between the baseline period and subsequent 5-year periods has increased. The average spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and fluxes of silica, total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphate to the Gulf of Mexico also decreased, whereas the spring flux of total phosphorus has increased. Similar changes in streamflow and nutrient flux were observed at many sites Buxtonwithin the basin. The inputs of water, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus from the major subbasins of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin as a percentage of the to-the-gulf totals have increased from the Ohio River Basin, decreased from the Missouri River Basin, and remained relatively unchanged from the Upper Mississippi, Red, and Arkansas River Basins. Changes in streamflow and nutrient fluxes are related, but short-term variations in sources of streamflow and nutrients complicate the interpretation of factors that affect nutrient delivery to the Gulf of Mexico. Parametric time-series models are used to try and separate natural variability in nutrient flux from changes due to other causes. Results indicate that the decrease in annual nutrient fluxes that has occurred between the 1980-1996 baseline period and more recent years can be largely attributed to natural causes (climate and streamflow) and not management actions or other human controlled activities in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin. The downward trends in total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, and orthophosphate that were detected at either the Mississippi River near St. Francisville, La., or the Atchafalaya River at Melville, La., occurred prior to 1995. In spite of the general decrease in nutrient flux, the average size of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone has increased between 1997 and 2007. The reasons for this are not clear but could be due to the type or nature of nutrient delivery. Whereas the annual flux of total nitrogen to the Gulf of Mexico has decreased, the proporti

Water Resources Data North Dakota Water Year 2002 Volume 1. Surface Water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harkness, R.E.; Lundgren, R.F.; Norbeck, S.W.; Robinson, S.M.; Sether, B.A.

2003-01-01

Water-resources data for the 2002 water year for North Dakota consists of records of discharge, stage, and water quality for streams; contents, stage, and water quality for lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality for ground-water wells. Volume 1 contains records of water discharge for 106 streamflow-gaging stations; stage only for 22 river-stage stations; contents and/or stage for 14 lake or reservoir stations; annual maximum discharge for 35 crest-stage stations; and water-quality for 96 streamflow-gaging stations, 3 river-stage stations, 11 lake or reservoir stations, 8 miscellaneous sample sites on rivers, and 63 miscellaneous sample sites on lakes and wetlands. Data are included for 7 water-quality monitor sites on streams and 2 precipitation-chemistry stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating Federal, State, and local agencies in North Dakota.

Water Resources Data North Dakota Water Year 2003, Volume 1. Surface Water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, S.M.; Lundgren, R.F.; Sether, B.A.; Norbeck, S.W.; Lambrecht, J.M.

2004-01-01

Water-resources data for the 2003 water year for North Dakota consists of records of discharge, stage, and water quality for streams; contents, stage, and water quality for lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality for ground-water wells. Volume 1 contains records of water discharge for 108 streamflow-gaging stations; stage only for 24 river-stage stations; contents and/or stage for 14 lake or reservoir stations; annual maximum discharge for 32 crest-stage stations; and water-quality for 99 streamflow-gaging stations, 5 river-stage stations, 11 lake or reservoir stations, 8 miscellaneous sample sites on rivers, and 63 miscellaneous sample sites on lakes and wetlands. Data are included for 7 water-quality monitor sites on streams and 2 precipitation-chemistry stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating Federal, State, and local agencies in North Dakota.

Water resources data--North Dakota water year 2005, Volume 1. Surface water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, S.M.; Lundgren, R.F.; Sether, B.A.; Norbeck, S.W.; Lambrecht, J.M.

2006-01-01

Water-resources data for the 2005 water year for North Dakota consists of records of discharge, stage, and water quality for streams; contents, stage, and water quality for lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality for ground-water wells. Volume 1 contains records of water discharge for 107 streamflow-gaging stations; stage only for 22 river-stage stations; contents and/or stage for 13 lake or reservoir stations; annual maximum discharge for 31 crest-stage stations; and water quality for 93 streamflow-gaging stations, 6 river-stage stations, 15 lake or reservoir stations, and about 50 miscellaneous sample sites on lakes and wetlands. Data are included for 8 water-quality monitor sites on streams and 2 precipitation-chemistry stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating Federal, State, and local agencies in North Dakota.

Water Resources Data North Dakota Water Year 2001, Volume 1. Surface Water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harkness, R.E.; Berkas, W.R.; Norbeck, S.W.; Robinson, S.M.

2002-01-01

Water-resources data for the 2001 water year for North Dakota consists of records of discharge, stage, and water quality for streams; contents, stage, and water quality for lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality for ground-water wells. Volume 1 contains records of water discharge for 103 streamflow-gaging stations; stage only for 20 river-stage stations; contents and/or stage for 13 lake or reservoir stations; annual maximum discharge for 35 crest-stage stations; and water-quality for 94 streamflow-gaging stations, 2 river-stage stations, 9 lake or reservoir stations, 7 miscellaneous sample sites on rivers, and 58 miscellaneous sample sites on lakes and wetlands. Data are included for 9 water-quality monitor sites on streams and 2 precipitation-chemistry stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating Federal, State, and local agencies in North Dakota.

Effects of urban best management practices on streamflow and phosphorus and suspended-sediment transport on Englesby Brook in Burlington, Vermont, 2000-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medalie, Laura

2012-01-01

An assessment of the effectiveness of several urban best management practice structures, including a wet extended detention facility and a shallow marsh wetland (together the "wet extended detention ponds"), was made using data collected from 2000 through 2010 at Englesby Brook in Burlington, Vermont. The purpose of the best management practices was to reduce high streamflows and phosphorus and suspended-sediment loads and concentrations and to increase low streamflows. Englesby Brook was monitored for streamflow, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentrations at a streamgage downstream of the best management practice structures for 5 years before the wet extended detention ponds were constructed in 2005 and for 4 years (phosphorus and suspended-sediment concentrations) or 5 years (streamflow) after they were constructed. The period after construction of the best management practice structures was wetter and had higher discharges than the period before construction. Despite the wetter conditions, streamflow duration curves provided evidence that the streamflow regime appeared to have shifted so that the percentages of low streamflows have increased and those of high streamflows may have slightly decreased. Two other hydrologic measures showed improvements in the years following construction of the best management practices: the percentage of annual discharge transported during the 3 days with highest discharges and the number of days with zero streamflow have both decreased. Evidence was mixed for the effectiveness of the best management practices in reducing phosphorus and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads. Annual phosphorus and suspended-sediment loads, monthly loads, low-streamflow concentrations, storm-averaged streamflow-adjusted concentrations, and total storm loads either did not change significantly or increased in the period after construction. These results likely were because of the wetter conditions in the period after construction. For example, monthly loads assessed using analysis of covariance, which compensated for the effects of streamflow on loads, suggested no difference in phosphorus or suspended-sediment loads between the two periods, whereas the comparison of monthly loads without factoring in streamflow showed an increase. This result could be viewed as evidence that the ponds may have mitigated the effect of greater discharges in the period after construction by preventing a corresponding increase in loads. In another analysis used to adjust for the difference in discharge between the two comparison periods, annual and monthly load results were grouped into dry and wet years. Large (50 percent) reductions in annual loads were observed when data from dry (or wet) years before construction were compared with data from dry (or wet) years after construction. When paired monthly loads of each constituent were grouped into dry and wet years, approximately the same number of months had increases as did decreases with the magnitudes of the decreases generally larger than the magnitudes of the increases. These differences in magnitude explain the decrease in annual loads for dry and wet years. The close association of phosphorus with suspended-sediment data suggested that most of the phosphorus was in the particulate form and was controlled by suspended-sediment dynamics.

Groundwater and surface-water interaction and effects of pumping in a complex glacial-sediment aquifer, phase 2, east-central Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggleston, Jack R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.; Carlson, Carl S.

2015-12-31

Model simulations indicate that under average base-flow conditions, the Birch Road wells have a small effect on flow in the Sudbury River during most months, even at the maximum pumping rate of 4.9 ft3/s (3.17 Mgal/d). Maximum percent streamflow depletion in the Sudbury River caused by simulated pumping takes place during simulated drought conditions, when streamflow decreased by as much as 21 percent under maximum continuous pumping. Simulations also indicate that groundwater withdrawals at the Birch Road site could be managed so that adverse streamflow impacts are substantially ameliorated. Under the most ecologically conservative simulated drought conditions, simulated streamflow depletion was reduced from 21 percent to 3 percent by pumping at the maximum rate for 6 months rather than for 12 months. Simulations that return 10 percent of the Birch Road well withdrawals to Pod Meadow Pond indicate a modest reduction in the Sudbury River streamflow depletion and provide a larger percentage increase to streamflow just downstream of the pond. The groundwater model also indicates that well locations can have a large effect on the sustainable pumping rate and so should be chosen carefully. The model provides a tool for evaluating alternative pumping rates and schedules not included in this analysis.

Water resources data for Oregon, water year 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herrett, Thomas A.; Hess, Glenn W.; House, Jon G.; Ruppert, Gregory P.; Courts, Mary-Lorraine

2005-01-01

The annual Oregon water data report is one of a series of annual reports that document hydrologic data gathered from the U.S. Geological Survey's surface- and ground-water data-collection networks in each State, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territories. These records of streamflow, ground-water levels, and quality of water provide the hydrologic information needed by State, local, Tribal, and Federal agencies and the private sector for developing and managing our Nation's land and water resources. This report contains water year 2004 data for both surface and ground water, including discharge records for 209 streamflow-gaging stations, 42 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, and 9 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations; stage-only records for 6 gaging stations; stage and content records for 15 lakes and reservoirs; water-level records from 12 long-term observation wells; and water-quality records collected at 133 streamflow-gaging stations and 1 atmospheric deposition station.

Annual Peak-Flow Frequency Characteristics and (or) Peak Dam-Pool-Elevation Frequency Characteristics of Dry Dams and Selected Streamflow-Gaging Stations in the Great Miami River Basin, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

2009-01-01

This report describes the results of a study to determine frequency characteristics of postregulation annual peak flows at streamflow-gaging stations at or near the Lockington, Taylorsville, Englewood, Huffman, and Germantown dry dams in the Miami Conservancy District flood-protection system (southwestern Ohio) and five other streamflow-gaging stations in the Great Miami River Basin further downstream from one or more of the dams. In addition, this report describes frequency characteristics of annual peak elevations of the dry-dam pools. In most cases, log-Pearson Type III distributions were fit to postregulation annual peak-flow values through 2007 (the most recent year of published peak-flow values at the time of this analysis) and annual peak dam-pool storage values for the period 1922-2008 to determine peaks with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years. For one streamflow-gaging station (03272100) with a short period of record, frequency characteristics were estimated by means of a process involving interpolation of peak-flow yields determined for an upstream and downstream gage. Once storages had been estimated for the various recurrence intervals, corresponding dam-pool elevations were determined from elevation-storage ratings provided by the Miami Conservancy District.

Streamflow Simulations and Percolation Estimates Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Selected Basins in North-Central Nebraska, 1940-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strauch, Kellan R.; Linard, Joshua I.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and estimate percolation in north-central Nebraska to aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected ground and surface water. Although groundwater models adequately simulate subsurface hydrologic processes, they often are not designed to simulate the hydrologically complex processes occurring at or near the land surface. The use of watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, which are designed specifically to simulate surface and near-subsurface processes, can provide helpful insight into the effects of surface-water hydrology on the groundwater system. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated for five stream basins in the Elkhorn-Loup Groundwater Model study area in north-central Nebraska to obtain spatially variable estimates of percolation. Six watershed models were calibrated to recorded streamflow in each subbasin by modifying the adjustment parameters. The calibrated parameter sets were then used to simulate a validation period; the validation period was half of the total streamflow period of record with a minimum requirement of 10 years. If the statistical and water-balance results for the validation period were similar to those for the calibration period, a model was considered satisfactory. Statistical measures of each watershed model's performance were variable. These objective measures included the Nash-Sutcliffe measure of efficiency, the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of the measured data, and an estimate of bias. The model met performance criteria for the bias statistic, but failed to meet statistical adequacy criteria for the other two performance measures when evaluated at a monthly time step. A primary cause of the poor model validation results was the inability of the model to reproduce the sustained base flow and streamflow response to precipitation that was observed in the Sand Hills region. The watershed models also were evaluated based on how well they conformed to the annual mass balance (precipitation equals the sum of evapotranspiration, streamflow/runoff, and deep percolation). The model was able to adequately simulate annual values of evapotranspiration, runoff, and precipitation in comparison to reported values, which indicates the model may provide reasonable estimates of annual percolation. Mean annual percolation estimated by the model as basin averages varied within the study area from a maximum of 12.9 inches in the Loup River Basin to a minimum of 1.5 inches in the Shell Creek Basin. Percolation also varied within the studied basins; basin headwaters tended to have greater percolation rates than downstream areas. This variance in percolation rates was mainly was because of the predominance of sandy, highly permeable soils in the upstream areas of the modeled basins.

Recent tree die-off has little effect on streamflow in contrast to expected increases from historical studies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent bark beetle epidemics have caused regional-scale tree mortality in many snowmelt-dominated headwater catchments of western North America. Initial expectations of increased streamflow have not been supported by observations, and the basin-scale response of annual streamflow is largely unknown....

THE WATER BALANCE OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN AND ITS RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

Historical precipitation, temperature and streamflow data for the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) are analyzed with the objective of developing simple statistical and water balance models of streamflow at the watershed's outlet. Annual streamflow is highly corre...

On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.; Kam, Jonghun; Dunne, Krista A.

2018-01-01

Although interannual streamflow variability is primarily a result of precipitation variability, temperature also plays a role. The relative weakness of the temperature effect at the annual time scale hinders understanding, but may belie substantial importance on climatic time scales. Here we develop and evaluate a simple theory relating variations of streamflow and evapotranspiration (E) to those of precipitation (P) and temperature. The theory is based on extensions of the Budyko water‐balance hypothesis, the Priestley‐Taylor theory for potential evapotranspiration ( ), and a linear model of interannual basin storage. The theory implies that the temperature affects streamflow by modifying evapotranspiration through a Clausius‐Clapeyron‐like relation and through the sensitivity of net radiation to temperature. We apply and test (1) a previously introduced “strong” extension of the Budyko hypothesis, which requires that the function linking temporal variations of the evapotranspiration ratio (E/P) and the index of dryness ( /P) at an annual time scale is identical to that linking interbasin variations of the corresponding long‐term means, and (2) a “weak” extension, which requires only that the annual evapotranspiration ratio depends uniquely on the annual index of dryness, and that the form of that dependence need not be known a priori nor be identical across basins. In application of the weak extension, the readily observed sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation contains crucial information about the sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration and, thence, to temperature. Implementation of the strong extension is problematic, whereas the weak extension appears to capture essential controls of the temperature effect efficiently.

Effects of Wildfire on the Hydrology of Capulin and Rito de los Frijoles canyons, Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veenhuis, Jack E.

2002-01-01

In June of 1977, the La Mesa wildfire burned 15,270 acres in and around Frijoles Canyon in Bandelier National Monument and the adjacent Santa Fe National Forest, New Mexico. The Dome wildfire in April of 1996 in Bandelier National Monument burned 16,516 acres in Capulin Canyon and the surrounding Dome Wilderness area. Both watersheds are characterized by abundant and extensive archeological sites that could be affected by increased runoff and accelerated rates of erosion, which typically occur after a wildfire. The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service monitored the wildfires' effects on streamflow in both canyons. The magnitude of large stormflows increased dramatically after these wildfires; peak flows at the most downstream streamflow-gaging station in Frijoles and Capulin Canyons increased to about 160 times the maximum recorded flood prior to the fire. Maximum peak flow was 3,030 cubic feet per second at the gaging station in Frijoles Canyon (drainage area equals 18.1 square miles) and 3,630 cubic feet per second at the most downstream crest-stage gage in Capulin Canyon (drainage area equals 14.1 square miles). The pre-fire maximum peak flow recorded in these two canyons was 19 and an estimated 25 cubic feet per second, respectively. As vegetation reestablished itself during the second year, the post-fire annual maximum peak flow decreased to about 10 to 15 times the pre-fire annual maximum peak flow. During the third year, maximum annual peak flows decreased to about three to five times the pre-fire maximum peak flow. In the 22 years since the La Mesa wildfire, flood magnitudes have not completely returned to pre-fire size. Post-fire flood magnitudes in Frijoles and Capulin Canyons do not exceed the maximum floods per drainage area for physiographic regions 5 and 6 in New Mexico. For a burned watershed, however, the peak flows that occur after a wildfire are several orders of magnitude larger than normal forested watershed peak flows. The frequency of larger stormflows also increased in response to the effects of the wildfires in both canyons. In Frijoles Canyon, the number of peak stormflows greater than the pre-fire maximum flow of 19 cubic feet per second was 15 in 1977, 9 in 1978, and 5 in 1979, which is about the magnitude of the maximum pre-fire peak flow in both canyons. Again the hydrologic effects of a wildfire seem to be more pronounced for the 3 years following the date of the fire. Likewise, larger peakflows occurred more frequently in Capulin Canyon for the first 3 years after the 1996 wildfire. Median suspended-sediment concentrations in samples collected in Frijoles Canyon in 1977 were 1,330 milligrams per liter; median concentrations were 16 milligrams per liter after the watershed stabilized in 1993-95. The annual load calculated from regression equations for load compared to flow for the first year after the wildfire was 220 times the annual load for the post-recovery period. To convey the increased frequency and magnitude of average flows in Capulin Canyon after the 1996 Dome wildfire, the stream channel in Capulin Canyon increased in flow capacity by widening and downcutting. As Capulin Canyon peak flows have decreased in both magnitude and frequency with vegetative recovery, the stream channel also has slowly begun to readjust. The channel at the most downstream crest-stage gage, which has the shallowest initial valley slope, is showing the first signs of aggradation.

Groundwater recharge in Wisconsin--Annual estimates for 1970-99 using streamflow data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2011-01-01

The groundwater component of streamflow is important because it is indicative of the sustained flow of a stream during dry periods, is often of better quality, and has a smaller range of temperatures, than surface contributions to streamflow. All three of these characteristics are important to the health of aquatic life in a stream. If recharge to the aquifers is to be preserved or enhanced, it is important to understand the present partitioning of total streamflow into base flow and stormflow. Additionally, an estimate of groundwater recharge is important for understanding the flows within a groundwater system-information important for water availability/sustainability or other assessments. The U.S. Geological Survey operates numerous continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (Hirsch and Norris, 2001), which can be used to provide estimates of average annual base flow. In addition to these continuous record sites, Gebert and others (2007) showed that having a few streamflow measurements in a basin can appreciably reduce the error in a base-flow estimate for that basin. Therefore, in addition to the continuous-record gaging stations, a substantial number of low-flow partial-record sites (6 to 15 discharge measurements) and miscellaneous-measurement sites (1 to 3 discharge measurements) that were operated during 1964-90 throughout the State were included in this work to provide additional insight into spatial distribution of annual base flow and, in turn, groundwater recharge.

A fully distributed implementation of mean annual streamflow regional regression equations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, K.L.; Worstell, B.

2008-01-01

Estimates of mean annual streamflow are needed for a variety of hydrologic assessments. Away from gage locations, regional regression equations that are a function of upstream area, precipitation, and temperature are commonly used. Geographic information systems technology has facilitated their use for projects, but traditional approaches using the polygon overlay operator have been too inefficient for national scale applications. As an alternative, the Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used as a framework for a fully distributed implementation of mean annual streamflow regional regression equations. The raster “flow accumulation” operator was used to efficiently achieve spatially continuous parameterization of the equations for every 30 m grid cell of the conterminous United States (U.S.). Results were confirmed by comparing with measured flows at stations of the Hydro-Climatic Data Network, and their applications value demonstrated in the development of a national geospatial hydropower assessment. Interactive tools at the EDNA website make possible the fast and efficient query of mean annual streamflow for any location in the conterminous U.S., providing a valuable complement to other national initiatives (StreamStats and the National Hydrography Dataset Plus).

Estimation of Streamflow Characteristics for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, Northeastern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Morgan, Timothy J.; Dutton, DeAnn M.; McCarthy, Peter M.

2009-01-01

Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) encompasses about 1.1 million acres (including Fort Peck Reservoir on the Missouri River) in northeastern Montana. To ensure that sufficient streamflow remains in the tributary streams to maintain the riparian corridors, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is negotiating water-rights issues with the Reserved Water Rights Compact Commission of Montana. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, conducted a study to gage, for a short period, selected streams that cross CMR, and analyze data to estimate long-term streamflow characteristics for CMR. The long-term streamflow characteristics of primary interest include the monthly and annual 90-, 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows and mean streamflows (Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, respectively), and the 1.5-, 2-, and 2.33- year peak flows (PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33, respectively). The Regional Adjustment Relationship (RAR) was investigated for estimating the monthly and annual Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, and the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33 for the short-term CMR gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as CMR stations). The RAR was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the long-term Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM on a monthly basis for the months of March through June, and also on an annual basis. For the months of September through January, the RAR regression equations did not provide acceptable results for any long-term streamflow characteristic. For the month of February, the RAR regression equations provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50 and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90, Q.80, and Q.20. For the months of July and August, the RAR provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50, Q.20, and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90 and Q.80. Estimation coefficients were developed for estimating the long-term streamflow characteristics for which the RAR did not provide acceptable results. The RAR also was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the PK1.5., PK2, and PK2.33 for the three CMR stations that lacked suitable peak-flow records. Methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites also were derived. Regression analyses that relate individual streamflow characteristics to various basin and climatic characteristics for gaging stations were performed to develop regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites. Final equations for the annual Q.50, Q.20, and QM are reported. Acceptable equations also were developed for estimating QM for the months of February, March, April, June, and July, and Q.50, Q.20, and QM on an annual basis. However, equations for QM for the months of February, March, April, June, and July were determined to be less consistent and reliable than the use of estimation coefficients applied to the regression equation results for the annual QM. Acceptable regression equations also were developed for the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33.

Evaluation of the flood hydrology in the Colorado Front Range using precipitation, streamflow, and paleoflood data for the Big Thompson River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, R.D.; Costa, J.E.

1988-01-01

A multidisciplinary study of precipitation and streamflow data and paleohydrologic studies of channel features was made to analyze the flood hydrology of foothill and mountain streams in the Front Range of Colorado, with emphasis on the Big Thompson River basin, because conventional hydrologic analyses do not adequately characterize the flood hydrology. In the foothills of Colorado, annual floodflows are derived from snowmelt at high elevations in the mountain regions, from rainfall at low elevation in the plains or plateau regions, or from a combination of rain falling on snow or mixed population hydrology. Above approximately 7,500 ft, snowmelt dominates; rain does not contribute to the flood potential. Regional flood-frequency relations were developed and compared with conventional flood-estimating technique results, including an evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of the probable maximum flood. Evaluation of streamflow data and paleoflood investigations provide an alternative for evaluating flood hydrology and the safety of dams. The study indicates the need for additional data collection and research to understand the complexities of the flood hydrology in mountainous regions, especially its effects on flood-plain management and the design of structures in the flood plain. (USGS)

Regression equations for estimation of annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas using an L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.

2009-01-01

Annual peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of dams, levees, and other flood-control structures; and for design of roads, bridges, and culverts. Annual peak-streamflow frequency represents the peak streamflow for nine recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 250, and 500 years. Common methods for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged or unmonitored watersheds are regression equations for each recurrence interval developed for one or more regions; such regional equations are the subject of this report. The method is based on analysis of annual peak-streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations (stations). Beginning in 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, began a 3-year investigation concerning the development of regional equations to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. The investigation focuses primarily on 638 stations with 8 or more years of data from undeveloped watersheds and other criteria. The general approach is explicitly limited to the use of L-moment statistics, which are used in conjunction with a technique of multi-linear regression referred to as PRESS minimization. The approach used to develop the regional equations, which was refined during the investigation, is referred to as the 'L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach'. For the approach, seven unique distributions are fit to the sample L-moments of the data for each of 638 stations and trimmed means of the seven results of the distributions for each recurrence interval are used to define the station specific, peak-streamflow frequency. As a first iteration of regression, nine weighted-least-squares, PRESS-minimized, multi-linear regression equations are computed using the watershed characteristics of drainage area, dimensionless main-channel slope, and mean annual precipitation. The residuals of the nine equations are spatially mapped, and residuals for the 10-year recurrence interval are selected for generalization to 1-degree latitude and longitude quadrangles. The generalized residual is referred to as the OmegaEM parameter and represents a generalized terrain and climate index that expresses peak-streamflow potential not otherwise represented in the three watershed characteristics. The OmegaEM parameter was assigned to each station, and using OmegaEM, nine additional regression equations are computed. Because of favorable diagnostics, the OmegaEM equations are expected to be generally reliable estimators of peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped and ungaged stream locations in Texas. The mean residual standard error, adjusted R-squared, and percentage reduction of PRESS by use of OmegaEM are 0.30log10, 0.86, and -21 percent, respectively. Inclusion of the OmegaEM parameter provides a substantial reduction in the PRESS statistic of the regression equations and removes considerable spatial dependency in regression residuals. Although the OmegaEM parameter requires interpretation on the part of analysts and the potential exists that different analysts could estimate different values for a given watershed, the authors suggest that typical uncertainty in the OmegaEM estimate might be about +or-0.1010. Finally, given the two ensembles of equations reported herein and those in previous reports, hydrologic design engineers and other analysts have several different methods, which represent different analytical tracks, to make comparisons of peak-streamflow frequency estimates for ungaged watersheds in the study area.

Hydrologic Drought of Water Year 2006 Compared with Four Major Drought Periods of the 20th Century in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.

2008-01-01

Water Year 2006 (October 1, 2005, to September 30, 2006) was a year of extreme hydrologic drought and the driest year in the recent 2002-2006 drought in Oklahoma. The severity of this recent drought can be evaluated by comparing it with four previous major hydrologic droughts, water years 1929-41, 1952-56, 1961-72, and 1976-81. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, completed an investigation to summarize the Water Year 2006 hydrologic drought and compare it to the four previous major hydrologic droughts in the 20th century. The period of water years 1925-2006 was selected as the period of record because before 1925 few continuous record streamflow-gaging sites existed and gaps existed where no streamflow-gaging sites were operated. Statewide annual precipitation in Water Year 2006 was second driest and statewide annual runoff in Water Year 2006 was sixth driest in the 82 years of record. Annual area-averaged precipitation totals by the nine National Weather Service Climate Divisions from Water Year 2006 are compared to those during four previous major hydrologic droughts to show how rainfall deficits in Oklahoma varied by region. Only two of the nine climate divisions, Climate Division 1 Panhandle and Climate Division 4 West Central, had minor rainfall deficits, while the rest of the climate divisions had severe rainfall deficits in Water Year 2006 ranging from only 65 to 73 percent of normal annual precipitation. Regional streamflow patterns for Water Year 2006 indicate that Oklahoma was part of the regionwide below-normal streamflow conditions for Arkansas-White-Red River Basin, the sixth driest since 1930. The percentage of long-term stations in Oklahoma (with at least 30 years of record) having below-normal streamflow reached 80 to 85 percent for some days in August and November 2006. Twelve long-term streamflow-gaging sites with periods of record ranging from 62 to 78 years were selected to show how streamflow deficits varied by region. The hydrologic drought worsened going from north to south in Oklahoma, ranging from 45 percent in the north, to just 14 percent in east-central Oklahoma, and 20 percent of normal annual streamflow in the southwest. The low streamflows resulted in only 86.3 percent of the statewide conservation storage available at the end of the water year in major reservoirs, and 7 to 47 percent of hydroelectric power generation at sites in Oklahoma in Calendar Year 2005.

Streamflow alteration at selected sites in Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.; Eng, Ken

2017-06-26

An understanding of streamflow alteration in response to various disturbances is necessary for the effective management of stream habitat for a variety of species in Kansas. Streamflow alteration can have negative ecological effects. Using a modeling approach, streamflow alteration was assessed for 129 selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the State for which requisite streamflow and basin-characteristic information was available. The assessment involved a comparison of the observed condition from 1980 to 2015 with the predicted expected (least-disturbed) condition for 29 streamflow metrics. The metrics represent various characteristics of streamflow including average flow (annual, monthly) and low and high flow (frequency, duration, magnitude).Streamflow alteration in Kansas was indicated locally, regionally, and statewide. Given the absence of a pronounced trend in annual precipitation in Kansas, a precipitation-related explanation for streamflow alteration was not supported. Thus, the likely explanation for streamflow alteration was human activity. Locally, a flashier flow regime (typified by shorter lag times and more frequent and higher peak discharges) was indicated for three streamgages with urbanized basins that had higher percentages of impervious surfaces than other basins in the State. The combination of localized reservoir effects and regional groundwater pumping from the High Plains aquifer likely was responsible, in part, for diminished conditions indicated for multiple streamflow metrics in western and central Kansas. Statewide, the implementation of agricultural land-management practices to reduce runoff may have been responsible, in part, for a diminished duration and magnitude of high flows. In central and eastern Kansas, implemented agricultural land-management practices may have been partly responsible for an inflated magnitude of low flows at several sites.

Hydrological impact of high-density small dams in a humid catchment, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, W.; Lei, H.; Yang, D.

2017-12-01

The Jiulong River basin is a humid catchment with a drainage area of 14,741 km2; however, it has over 1000 hydropower stations within it. Such catchment with high-density small dams is scarce in China. Yet few is known about the impact of high-density small dams on streamflow changes. To what extent the large number of dams alters the hydrologic patterns is a fundamental scientific issue for water resources management, flood control, and aquatic ecological environment protection. Firstly, trend and change point analyses are applied to determine the characteristics of inter-annual streamflow. Based on the detected change point, the study period is divided into two study periods, the ``natural'' and ``disturbed'' periods. Then, a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM) and the fixing-changing method are adopted to evaluate the relative contributions of climate variations and damming to the changes in streamflow at each temporal scale (i.e., from daily, monthly to annual). Based on the simulated natural streamflow, the impact of dam construction on hydrologic alteration and aquatic ecological environment will be evaluated. The hydrologic signatures that will be investigated include flood peak, seasonality of streamflow, and the inter-annual variability of streamflow. In particular, the impacts of damming on aquatic ecological environment will be investigated using eco-flow metrics and indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) which contains 33 individual streamflow statistics that are closely related to aquatic ecosystem. The results of this study expect to provide a reference for reservoir operation considering both ecological and economic benefits of such operations in the catchment with high-density dams.

Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, J. H.; Rosenberg, D. E.; DeRose, R. J.; Rittenour, T. M.

2018-02-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate-change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually require streamflow input at the monthly scale. This study explores the hypothesis that monthly streamflows can be adequately modeled by statistically decomposing annual flow reconstructions. To test this hypothesis, a multiple linear regression model for monthly streamflow reconstruction is presented that expands the set of predictors to include annual streamflow reconstructions, reconstructions of global circulation, and potential differences among regional tree-ring chronologies related to tree species and geographic location. This approach is used to reconstruct 600 years of monthly streamflows at two sites on the Bear and Logan rivers in northern Utah. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies remain above zero (0.26-0.60) for all months except April and Pearson's correlation coefficients (R) are 0.94 and 0.88 for the Bear and Logan rivers, respectively, confirming that the model can adequately reproduce monthly flows during the reference period (10/1942 to 9/2015). Incorporating a flexible transition between the previous and concurrent annual reconstructed flows was the most important factor for model skill. Expanding the model to include global climate indices and regional tree-ring chronologies produced smaller, but still significant improvements in model fit. The model presented here is the only approach currently available to reconstruct monthly streamflows directly from tree-ring chronologies and climate reconstructions, rather than using resampling of the observed record. With reasonable estimates of monthly flow that extend back in time many centuries, water managers can challenge systems models with a larger range of natural variability in drought and pluvial events and better evaluate extreme events with recurrence intervals longer than the observed record. Establishing this natural baseline is critical when estimating future hydrologic risks under conditions of a non-stationary climate.

Updating estimates of low streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blum, A. G.; Archfield, S. A.; Hirsch, R. M.; Vogel, R. M.; Kiang, J. E.; Dudley, R. W.

2017-12-01

Given evidence of both increasing and decreasing trends in low flows in many streams, methods are needed to update estimators of low flow statistics used in water resources management. One such metric is the 10-year annual low-flow statistic (7Q10) calculated as the annual minimum seven-day streamflow which is exceeded in nine out of ten years on average. Historical streamflow records may not be representative of current conditions at a site if environmental conditions are changing. We present a new approach to frequency estimation under nonstationary conditions that applies a stationary nonparametric quantile estimator to a subset of the annual minimum flow record. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were used to evaluate this approach across a range of trend and no trend scenarios. Relative to the standard practice of using the entire available streamflow record, use of a nonparametric quantile estimator combined with selection of the most recent 30 or 50 years for 7Q10 estimation were found to improve accuracy and reduce bias. Benefits of data subset selection approaches were greater for higher magnitude trends annual minimum flow records with lower coefficients of variation. A nonparametric trend test approach for subset selection did not significantly improve upon always selecting the last 30 years of record. At 174 stream gages in the Chesapeake Bay region, 7Q10 estimators based on the most recent 30 years of flow record were compared to estimators based on the entire period of record. Given the availability of long records of low streamflow, using only a subset of the flow record ( 30 years) can be used to update 7Q10 estimators to better reflect current streamflow conditions.

Technique for estimation of streamflow statistics in mineral areas of interest in Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; Mack, Thomas J.

2011-01-01

A technique for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged stream sites in areas of mineral interest in Afghanistan using drainage-area-ratio relations of historical streamflow data was developed and is documented in this report. The technique can be used to estimate the following streamflow statistics at ungaged sites: (1) 7-day low flow with a 10-year recurrence interval, (2) 7-day low flow with a 2-year recurrence interval, (3) daily mean streamflow exceeded 90 percent of the time, (4) daily mean streamflow exceeded 80 percent of the time, (5) mean monthly streamflow for each month of the year, (6) mean annual streamflow, and (7) minimum monthly streamflow for each month of the year. Because they are based on limited historical data, the estimates of streamflow statistics at ungaged sites are considered preliminary.

Increased baseflow in Iowa over the second half of the 20th Century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Libra, R.D.

2003-01-01

Historical trends in annual discharge characteristics were evaluated for 11 gauging stations located throughout Iowa. Discharge records from nine eight-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC-8) watersheds were examined for the period 1940 to 2000, whereas data for two larger river systems (Cedar and Des Moines Rivers) were examined for a longer period of record (1903 to 2000). In nearly all watersheds evaluated, annual baseflow, annual minimum flow, and the annual baseflow percentage significantly increased over time. Some rivers also exhibited increasing trends in total annual discharge, whereas only the Maquoketa River had significantly decreased annual maximum flows. Regression of stream discharge versus precipitation indicated that more precipitation is being routed into streams as baseflow than as stormflow in the second half of the 20th Century. Reasons for the observed streamflow trends are hypothesized to include improved conservation practices, greater artificial drainage, increasing row crop production, and channel incision. Each of these reasons is consistent with the observed trends, and all are likely responsible to some degree in most watersheds.

Using a predictive model to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in streamflow permanence across the Pacific Northwest region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaeger, K. L.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability Of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS-based empirical model that provides predictions of the annual probability of a stream channel having year-round flow (Streamflow permanence probability; SPP) for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana). The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions, and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Prediction locations correspond to the channel network consistent with the National Hydrography Dataset stream grid and are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform (https://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/). In snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative predictor variable was mean upstream snow water equivalent on May 1, which highlights the influence of late spring snow cover for supporting streamflow in mountain river networks. In non-snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative variable was mean annual precipitation. Streamflow permanence probabilities varied across the study area by geography and from year-to-year. Notably lower SPP corresponded to the climatically drier subregions of the study area. Higher SPP were concentrated in coastal and higher elevation mountain regions. In addition, SPP appeared to trend with average hydroclimatic conditions, which were also geographically coherent. The year-to-year variability lends support for the growing recognition of the spatiotemporal dynamism of streamflow permanence. An analysis of three focus basins located in contrasting geographical and hydroclimatic settings demonstrates differences in the sensitivity of streamflow permanence to antecedent climate conditions as a function of geography. Consequently, results suggest that PROSPER model can be a useful tool to evaluate regions of the landscape that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for targeted management efforts to protect critical reaches.

Beyond annual streamflow reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River Basin: a paleo-water-balance approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; McCabe, Gregory J.; Woodhouse, Connie A.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we present a methodology to use annual tree-ring chronologies and a monthly water balance model to generate annual reconstructions of water balance variables (e.g., potential evapotrans- piration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (AET), snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture storage (SMS), and runoff (R)). The method involves resampling monthly temperature and precipitation from the instrumental record directed by variability indicated by the paleoclimate record. The generated time series of monthly temperature and precipitation are subsequently used as inputs to a monthly water balance model. The methodology is applied to the Upper Colorado River Basin, and results indicate that the methodology reliably simulates water-year runoff, maximum snow water equivalent, and seasonal soil moisture storage for the instrumental period. As a final application, the methodology is used to produce time series of PET, AET, SWE, SMS, and R for the 1404–1905 period for the Upper Colorado River Basin.

Climate change impacts under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Mou Leong; Ibrahim, Ab Latif; Yusop, Zulkifli; Chua, Vivien P.; Chan, Ngai Weng

2017-06-01

This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin in north-eastern Peninsular Malaysia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Thirty-six downscaled climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the periods of 2015-2044 and 2045-2074 were incorporated into the calibrated SWAT model. Differences of these scenarios were calculated by comparing to the 1975-2004 baseline period. Overall, the SWAT model performed well in monthly streamflow simulation, with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.75 and 0.63 for calibration and validation, respectively. Based on the ensemble of five GCMs, the annual rainfall and maximum temperature are projected to increase by 1.2-8.7% and 0.6-2.1 °C, respectively. This corresponds to the increases in the annual streamflow (14.6-27.2%), evapotranspiration (0.3-2.7%), surface runoff (46.8-90.2%) and water yield (14.2-26.5%) components. The study shows an increase of monthly rainfall during the wet season, and decrease during the dry season. Therefore, the monthly streamflow and surface runoff are likely to increase significantly in November, December and January. In addition, slight decreases in the monthly water yield are found between June and October (1.9-8.9%) during the 2015-2044 period. These findings could act as a scientific reference to develop better climate adaptation strategies.

Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Garn, Herbert S.; Rose, William J.

2016-01-19

Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent for streams in the agriculture area and 27 percent for streams in the forested area. Increases in low flow for agriculture streams are attributed to changes in agricultural practices and land use as well as increased precipitation. The decrease in annual flood peak discharge with increased annual precipitation is less clear, but is attributed to increased infiltration from changes in agricultural practices and climatic changes. For future low-flow studies, the 1969–2008 period should be used to determine low-flow characteristics since it represents current (2014) conditions and was generally free of significant trends.

Streamflow characteristics and trends in New Jersey, water years 1897-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Reiser, Robert G.; Nieswand, Steven P.; Schopp, Robert D.

2005-01-01

Streamflow statistics were computed for 111 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with 20 or more years of continuous record and for 500 low-flow partial-record stations, including 66 gaging stations with less than 20 years of continuous record. Daily mean streamflow data from water year 1897 through water year 2001 were used for the computations at the gaging stations. (The water year is the 12-month period, October 1 through September 30, designated by the calendar year in which it ends). The characteristics presented for the long-term continuous-record stations are daily streamflow, harmonic mean flow, flow frequency, daily flow durations, trend analysis, and streamflow variability. Low-flow statistics for gaging stations with less than 20 years of record and for partial-record stations were estimated by correlating base-flow measurements with daily mean flows at long-term (more than 20 years) continuous-record stations. Instantaneous streamflow measurements through water year 2003 were used to estimate low-flow statistics at the partial-record stations. The characteristics presented for partial-record stations are mean annual flow; harmonic mean flow; and annual and winter low-flow frequency. The annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day low- and high-flow data sets were tested for trends. The results of trend tests for high flows indicate relations between upward trends for high flows and stream regulation, and high flows and development in the basin. The relation between development and low-flow trends does not appear to be as strong as for development and high-flow trends. Monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation data for selected long-term meteorological stations also were tested for trends to analyze the effects of climate. A significant upward trend in precipitation in northern New Jersey, Climate Division 1 was identified. For Climate Division 2, no general increase in average precipitation was observed. Trend test results indicate that high flows at undeveloped, unregulated sites have not been affected by the increase in average precipitation. The ratio of instantaneous peak flow to 3-day mean flow, ratios of flow duration, ratios of high-flow/low-flow frequency, and coefficient of variation were used to define streamflow variability. Streamflow variability was significantly greater among the group of gaging stations located outside the Coastal Plain than among the group of gaging stations located in the Coastal Plain.

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the middle Nueces River watershed, south Texas, 1961-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Selected results of the model include streamflow yields for the subwatersheds and water-balance information for the Carrizo–Wilcox aquifer outcrop area. For the entire model domain, the area-weighted mean streamflow yield from 1961 to 2008 was 1.12 inches/year. The mean annual rainfall on the outcrop area during the 1961–2008 simulation period was 21.7 inches. Of this rainfall, an annual mean of 20.1 inches (about 93 percent) was simulated as evapotranspiration, 1.2 inches (about 6 percent) was simulated as groundwater recharge, and 0.5 inches (about 2 percent) was simulated as surface runoff.

Techniques for estimating monthly mean streamflow at gaged sites and monthly streamflow duration characteristics at ungaged sites in central Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, G.W.; Bohman, L.R.

1996-01-01

Techniques for estimating monthly mean streamflow at gaged sites and monthly streamflow duration characteristics at ungaged sites in central Nevada were developed using streamflow records at six gaged sites and basin physical and climatic characteristics. Streamflow data at gaged sites were related by regression techniques to concurrent flows at nearby gaging stations so that monthly mean streamflows for periods of missing or no record can be estimated for gaged sites in central Nevada. The standard error of estimate for relations at these sites ranged from 12 to 196 percent. Also, monthly streamflow data for selected percent exceedence levels were used in regression analyses with basin and climatic variables to determine relations for ungaged basins for annual and monthly percent exceedence levels. Analyses indicate that the drainage area and percent of drainage area at altitudes greater than 10,000 feet are the most significant variables. For the annual percent exceedence, the standard error of estimate of the relations for ungaged sites ranged from 51 to 96 percent and standard error of prediction for ungaged sites ranged from 96 to 249 percent. For the monthly percent exceedence values, the standard error of estimate of the relations ranged from 31 to 168 percent, and the standard error of prediction ranged from 115 to 3,124 percent. Reliability and limitations of the estimating methods are described.

Recent tree die-off has little effect on streamflow in contrast to expected increases from historical studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, Joel A.; Somor, Andrew J.; Harpold, Adrian A.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Breshears, David D.; Troch, Peter A.; Gochis, David J.; Scott, Russell L.; Meddens, Arjan J. H.; Brooks, Paul D.

2015-12-01

Recent bark beetle epidemics have caused regional-scale tree mortality in many snowmelt-dominated headwater catchments of western North America. Initial expectations of increased streamflow have not been supported by observations, and the basin-scale response of annual streamflow is largely unknown. Here we quantified annual streamflow responses during the decade following tree die-off in eight infested catchments in the Colorado River headwaters and one nearby control catchment. We employed three alternative empirical methods: (i) double-mass comparison between impacted and control catchments, (ii) runoff ratio comparison before and after die-off, and (iii) time-trend analysis using climate-driven linear models. In contrast to streamflow increases predicted by historical paired catchment studies and recent modeling, we did not detect streamflow changes in most basins following die-off, while one basin consistently showed decreased streamflow. The three analysis methods produced generally consistent results, with time-trend analysis showing precipitation was the strongest predictor of streamflow variability (R2 = 74-96%). Time-trend analysis revealed post-die-off streamflow decreased in three catchments by 11-29%, with no change in the other five catchments. Although counter to initial expectations, these results are consistent with increased transpiration by surviving vegetation and the growing body of literature documenting increased snow sublimation and evaporation from the subcanopy following die-off in water-limited, snow-dominated forests. The observations presented here challenge the widespread expectation that streamflow will increase following beetle-induced forest die-off and highlight the need to better understand the processes driving hydrologic response to forest disturbance.

The cumulative effects of forest disturbance and climate variability on streamflow components in a large forest-dominated watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiang; Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang; Liu, Wenfei; Giles-Hansen, Krysta; Wang, Yi

2018-02-01

Assessing how forest disturbance and climate variability affect streamflow components is critical for watershed management, ecosystem protection, and engineering design. Previous studies have mainly evaluated the effects of forest disturbance on total streamflow, rarely with attention given to its components (e.g., base flow and surface runoff), particularly in large watersheds (>1000 km2). In this study, the Upper Similkameen River watershed (1810 km2), an international watershed situated between Canada and the USA, was selected to examine how forest disturbance and climate variability interactively affect total streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff. Baseflow was separated using a combination of the recursive digital filter method and conductivity mass balance method. Time series analysis and modified double mass curves were then employed to quantitatively separate the relative contributions of forest disturbance and climate variability to each streamflow component. Our results showed that average annual baseflow and baseflow index (baseflow/streamflow) were 113.3 ± 35.6 mm year-1 and 0.27 for 1954-2013, respectively. Forest disturbance increased annual streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff of 27.7 ± 13.7 mm, 7.4 ± 3.6 mm, and 18.4 ± 12.9 mm, respectively, with its relative contributions to the changes in respective streamflow components being 27.0 ± 23.0%, 29.2 ± 23.1%, and 25.7 ± 23.4%, respectively. In contrast, climate variability decreased them by 74.9 ± 13.7 mm, 17.9 ± 3.6 mm, and 53.3 ± 12.9 mm, respectively, with its relative contributions to the changes in respective streamflow components being 73.0 ± 23.0%, 70.8 ± 23.1% and 73.1 ± 23.4%, respectively. Despite working in opposite ways, the impacts of climate variability on annual streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff were of a much greater magnitude than forest disturbance impacts. This study has important implications for the protection of aquatic habitat, engineering design, and watershed planning in the context of future forest disturbance and climate change.

Global-scale high-resolution ( 1 km) modelling of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark; Hendriks, Jan; Beusen, Arthur; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke

2017-04-01

Quantifying mean, maximum and minimum annual flow (AF) of rivers at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. AF metrics can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict AF metrics based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, so far, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. We developed global-scale regression models that quantify mean, maximum and minimum AF as function of catchment area and catchment-averaged slope, elevation, and mean, maximum and minimum annual precipitation and air temperature. We then used these models to obtain global 30 arc-seconds (˜ 1 km) maps of mean, maximum and minimum AF for each year from 1960 through 2015, based on a newly developed hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model. We calibrated our regression models based on observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from about 4,000 catchments worldwide, ranging from 100 to 106 km2 in size, and validated them against independent measurements as well as the output of a number of process-based global hydrological models (GHMs). The variance explained by our regression models ranged up to 90% and the performance of the models compared well with the performance of existing GHMs. Yet, our AF maps provide a level of spatial detail that cannot yet be achieved by current GHMs.

Predicting streamflow response to fire-induced landcover change: implications of parameter uncertainty in the MIKE SHE model.

PubMed

McMichael, Christine E; Hope, Allen S

2007-08-01

Fire is a primary agent of landcover transformation in California semi-arid shrubland watersheds, however few studies have examined the impacts of fire and post-fire succession on streamflow dynamics in these basins. While it may seem intuitive that larger fires will have a greater impact on streamflow response than smaller fires in these watersheds, the nature of these relationships has not been determined. The effects of fire size on seasonal and annual streamflow responses were investigated for a medium-sized basin in central California using a modified version of the MIKE SHE model which had been previously calibrated and tested for this watershed using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. Model simulations were made for two contrasting periods, wet and dry, in order to assess whether fire size effects varied with weather regime. Results indicated that seasonal and annual streamflow response increased nearly linearly with fire size in a given year under both regimes. Annual flow response was generally higher in wetter years for both weather regimes, however a clear trend was confounded by the effect of stand age. These results expand our understanding of the effects of fire size on hydrologic response in chaparral watersheds, but it is important to note that the majority of model predictions were largely indistinguishable from the predictive uncertainty associated with the calibrated model - a key finding that highlights the importance of analyzing hydrologic predictions for altered landcover conditions in the context of model uncertainty. Future work is needed to examine how alternative decisions (e.g., different likelihood measures) may influence GLUE-based MIKE SHE streamflow predictions following different size fires, and how the effect of fire size on streamflow varies with other factors such as fire location.

Deforestation effects on soil moisture, streamflow, and water balance in the central Appalachians

Treesearch

James H. Patric; James H. Patric

1973-01-01

Soil moisture, precipitation, and streamflow were measured on three watersheds in West Virginia, two deforested and one forested. Water content of barren soil always exceeded that of forest soil throughout the growing season and especially in dry weather. Streamflow increased 10 inches annually on the watersheds that were cleared, most of the increase occurring between...

Streamflow monitoring and statistics for development of water rights claims for Wild and Scenic Rivers, Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness, Idaho, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Molly S.; Fosness, Ryan L.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), collected streamflow data in 2012 and estimated streamflow statistics for stream segments designated "Wild," "Scenic," or "Recreational" under the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System in the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness in southwestern Idaho. The streamflow statistics were used by BLM to develop and file a draft, federal reserved water right claim in autumn 2012 to protect federally designated "outstanding remarkable values" in the stream segments. BLM determined that the daily mean streamflow equaled or exceeded 20 and 80 percent of the time during bimonthly periods (two periods per month) and the bankfull streamflow are important streamflow thresholds for maintaining outstanding remarkable values. Prior to this study, streamflow statistics estimated using available datasets and tools for the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness were inaccurate for use in the water rights claim. Streamflow measurements were made at varying intervals during February–September 2012 at 14 monitoring sites; 2 of the monitoring sites were equipped with telemetered streamgaging equipment. Synthetic streamflow records were created for 11 of the 14 monitoring sites using a partial‑record method or a drainage-area-ratio method. Streamflow records were obtained directly from an operating, long-term streamgage at one monitoring site, and from discontinued streamgages at two monitoring sites. For 10 sites analyzed using the partial-record method, discrete measurements were related to daily mean streamflow at a nearby, telemetered “index” streamgage. Resulting regression equations were used to estimate daily mean and annual peak streamflow at the monitoring sites during the full period of record for the index sites. A synthetic streamflow record for Sheep Creek was developed using a drainage-area-ratio method, because measured streamflows did not relate well to any index site to allow use of the partial-record method. The synthetic and actual daily mean streamflow records were used to estimate daily mean streamflow that was exceeded 80, 50, and 20 percent of the time (80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedances) for bimonthly and annual periods. Bankfull streamflow statistics were calculated by fitting the synthetic and actual annual peak streamflow records to a log Pearson Type III distribution using Bulletin 17B guidelines in the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. The coefficients of determination (R2) for the regressions between the monitoring and index sites ranged from 0.74 for Wickahoney Creek to 0.98 for the West Fork Bruneau River and Deep Creek. Confidence in computed streamflow statistics is highest among other sites for the East Fork Owyhee River and the West Fork Bruneau River on the basis of regression statistics, visual fit of the related data, and the range and number of streamflow measurements. Streamflow statistics for sites with the greatest uncertainty included Big Jacks, Little Jacks, Cottonwood, Wickahoney, and Sheep Creeks. The uncertainty in computed streamflow statistics was due to a number of factors which included the distance of index sites relative to monitoring sites, relatively low streamflow conditions that occurred during the study, and the limited number and range of streamflow measurements. However, the computed streamflow statistics are considered the best possible estimates given available datasets in the remote study area. Streamflow measurements over a wider range of hydrologic and climatic conditions would improve the relations between streamflow characteristics at monitoring and index sites. Additionally, field surveys are needed to verify if the streamflows selected for the water rights claims are sufficient for maintaining outstanding remarkable values in the Wild and Scenic rivers included in the study.

Winter cyclone frequency and following freshet streamflow formation on the rivers in Belarus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partasenok, Irina S.; Groisman, Pavel Ya; Chekan, Grigoriy S.; Melnik, Viktor I.

2014-09-01

We studied long-term fluctuations of streamflow and occurrence of extreme phenomena on the rivers of Belarus during the post-World War II period. It was found that formation of annual runoff within the nation has no constant tendencies and varies from year to year. At the same time, analysis of intra-annual distribution of streamflow reveals significant changes since the 1970s, first of all, increase of winter and decrease of spring streamflow. As a result, the frequency of extreme floods has decreased. These changes in water regime are associated with climatic anomalies (increase of the surface air temperatures) caused by large-scale alterations in atmospheric circulation, specifically in trajectories of cyclones. During the last two decades, the frequency of Atlantic and southern cyclones has changed and caused decreasing of cold season storms and extreme phenomena on the rivers.

Water Resources Data for Oregon, Water Year 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herrett, T.A.; Hess, G.W.; House, J.G.; Ruppert, G.P.; Courts, M.L.

2003-01-01

The annual Oregon hydrologic data report is one of a series of annual reports that document hydrologic data gathered from the U.S. Geological Survey's surface- and ground-water data-collection networks in each State, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territories. These records of streamflow, ground-water levels, and quality of water provide the hydrologic information needed by State, local and Federal agencies, and the private sector for developing and managing our Nation's land and water resources. This report includes records on both surface and ground water in the State and contains discharge records for 181 stream-gaging stations, 47 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, and 8 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations; stage-only records for 6 gaging stations; stage and content records for 26 lakes and reservoirs; and water-quality records for 127 streamflow-gaging stations, 2 atmospheric deposition stations, and 11 ground-water sites.

Water Resources Data for Oregon, Water Year 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herrett, T.A.; Hess, G.W.; House, J.G.; Ruppert, G.P.; Courts, M.L.

2004-01-01

The annual Oregon hydrologic data report is one of a series of annual reports that document hydrologic data gathered from the U.S. Geological Survey's surface- and ground-water data-collection networks in each State, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territories. These records of streamflow, ground-water levels, and quality of water provide the hydrologic information needed by State, local and Federal agencies, and the private sector for developing and managing our Nation's land and water resources. This report includes records on both surface and ground water in Oregon and contains discharge records for 199 stream-gaging stations, 25 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, and 8 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations; stage-only records for 6 gaging stations; stage and content records for 26 lakes and reservoirs; and water-quality records collected at 127 streamflow-gaging stations, 2 atmospheric deposition stations, and 11 ground-water sites.

Development of regression equations to revise estimates of historical streamflows for the St. Croix River at Stillwater, Minnesota (water years 1910-2011), and Prescott, Wisconsin (water years 1910-2007)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.; Magdalene, Suzanne

2015-01-01

The new regression equations were used to calculate revised estimates of historical streamflows for Stillwater and Prescott starting in 1910 and ending when index-velocity streamgages were installed. Monthly, annual, 30-year, and period of record statistics were examined between previous and revised estimates of historical streamflows. The abilities of the new regression equations to estimate historical streamflows were evaluated by using percent differences to compare new estimates of historical daily streamflows to discrete streamflow measurements made at Stillwater and Prescott before the installation of index-velocity streamgages. Although less variability was observed between estimated and measured streamflows at Stillwater compared to Prescott, the percent difference data indicated that the new estimates closely approximated measured streamflows at both locations.

Quantifying mountain block recharge by means of catchment-scale storage-discharge relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajami, Hoori; Troch, Peter A.; Maddock, Thomas, III; Meixner, Thomas; Eastoe, Chris

2011-04-01

Despite the importance of mountainous catchments for providing freshwater resources, especially in semi-arid regions, little is known about key hydrological processes such as mountain block recharge (MBR). Here we implement a data-based method informed by isotopic data to quantify MBR rates using recession flow analysis. We applied our hybrid method in a semi-arid sky island catchment in southern Arizona, United States. Sabino Creek is a 91 km2 catchment with its sources near the summit of the Santa Catalina Mountains northeast of Tucson. Southern Arizona's climate has two distinct wet seasons separated by prolonged dry periods. Winter frontal storms (November-March) provide about 50% of annual precipitation, and summers are dominated by monsoon convective storms from July to September. Isotope analyses of springs and surface water in the Sabino Creek catchment indicate that streamflow during dry periods is derived from groundwater storage in fractured bedrock. Storage-discharge relationships are derived from recession flow analysis to estimate changes in storage during wet periods. To provide reliable estimates, several corrections and improvements to classic base flow recession analysis are considered. These corrections and improvements include adaptive time stepping, data binning, and the choice of storage-discharge functions. Our analysis shows that (1) incorporating adaptive time steps to correct for streamflow measurement errors improves the coefficient of determination, (2) the quantile method is best for streamflow data binning, (3) the choice of the regression model is critical when the stage-discharge function is used to predict changes in bedrock storage beyond the maximum observed flow in the catchment, and (4) the use of daily or night-time hourly streamflow does not affect the form of the storage-discharge relationship but will impact MBR estimates because of differences in the observed range of streamflow in each series.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows at ungaged sites in and near the Oklahoma Panhandle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, S. Jerrod; Lewis, Jason M.; Graves, Grant M.

2015-09-28

Generalized-least-squares multiple-linear regression analysis was used to formulate regression relations between peak-streamflow frequency statistics and basin characteristics. Contributing drainage area was the only basin characteristic determined to be statistically significant for all percentage of annual exceedance probabilities and was the only basin characteristic used in regional regression equations for estimating peak-streamflow frequency statistics on unregulated streams in and near the Oklahoma Panhandle. The regression model pseudo-coefficient of determination, converted to percent, for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations ranged from about 38 to 63 percent. The standard errors of prediction and the standard model errors for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations ranged from about 84 to 148 percent and from about 76 to 138 percent, respectively. These errors were comparable to those reported for regional peak-streamflow frequency regression equations for the High Plains areas of Texas and Colorado. The root mean square errors for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations (ranging from 3,170 to 92,000 cubic feet per second) were less than the root mean square errors for the Oklahoma statewide regression equations (ranging from 18,900 to 412,000 cubic feet per second); therefore, the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations produce more accurate peak-streamflow statistic estimates for the irrigated period of record in the Oklahoma Panhandle than do the Oklahoma statewide regression equations. The regression equations developed in this report are applicable to streams that are not substantially affected by regulation, impoundment, or surface-water withdrawals. These regression equations are intended for use for stream sites with contributing drainage areas less than or equal to about 2,060 square miles, the maximum value for the independent variable used in the regression analysis.

Streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for selected locations on the Yellowstone, Tongue, and Powder Rivers, Montana, 1928-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.

2013-01-01

Major floods in 1996 and 1997 on the Yellowstone River in Montana intensified public debate over the effects of human activities on the Yellowstone River. In 1999, the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council was formed to address conservation issues on the river. The Yellowstone River Conservation District Council partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to conduct a cumulative-effects study on the main stem of the Yellowstone River. The cumulative-effects study is intended to provide a basis for future management decisions in the watershed. Streamflow statistics, such as flow-frequency and flow-duration data calculated for unregulated and regulated streamflow conditions, are a necessary component of the cumulative effects study. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, calculated streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for the Yellowstone, Tongue, and Powder Rivers for the 1928–2002 study period. Unregulated streamflow represents flow conditions that might have occurred during the 1928–2002 study period if there had been no water-resources development in the Yellowstone River Basin. Regulated streamflow represents estimates of flow conditions during the 1928–2002 study period if the level of water-resources development existing in 2002 was in place during the entire study period. Peak-flow frequency estimates for regulated and unregulated streamflow were developed using methods described in Bulletin 17B. High-flow frequency and low-flow frequency data were developed for regulated and unregulated streamflows from the annual series of highest and lowest (respectively) mean flows for specified n-day consecutive periods within the calendar year. Flow-duration data, and monthly and annual streamflow characteristics, also were calculated for the unregulated and regulated streamflows.

Climate, water use, and land surface transformation in an irrigation intensive watershed - streamflow responses from 1950 through 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dale, Joseph; Zou, Chris B.; Andrews, William J.; Long, James M.; Liang, Ye; Qiao, Lei

2015-01-01

Climatic variability and land surface change have a wide range of effects on streamflow and are often difficult to separate. We analyzed long-term records of climate, land use and land cover, and re-constructed the water budget based on precipitation, groundwater levels, and water use from 1950 through 2010 in the Cimarron–Skeleton watershed and a portion of the Cimarron–Eagle Chief watershed in Oklahoma, an irrigation-intensive agricultural watershed in the Southern Great Plains, USA. Our results show that intensive irrigation through alluvial aquifer withdrawal modifies climatic feedback and alters streamflow response to precipitation. Increase in consumptive water use was associated with decreases in annual streamflow, while returning croplands to non-irrigated grasslands was associated with increases in streamflow. Along with groundwater withdrawal, anthropogenic-induced factors and activities contributed nearly half to the observed variability of annual streamflow. Streamflow was more responsive to precipitation during the period of intensive irrigation between 1965 and 1984 than the period of relatively lower water use between 1985 and 2010. The Cimarron River is transitioning from a historically flashy river to one that is more stable with a lower frequency of both high and low flow pulses, a higher baseflow, and an increased median flow due in part to the return of cropland to grassland. These results demonstrated the interrelationship among climate, land use, groundwater withdrawal and streamflow regime and the potential to design agricultural production systems and adjust irrigation to mitigate impact of increasing climate variability on streamflow in irrigation intensive agricultural watershed.

Variance analysis of forecasted streamflow maxima in a wet temperate climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Aamery, Nabil; Fox, James F.; Snyder, Mark; Chandramouli, Chandra V.

2018-05-01

Coupling global climate models, hydrologic models and extreme value analysis provides a method to forecast streamflow maxima, however the elusive variance structure of the results hinders confidence in application. Directly correcting the bias of forecasts using the relative change between forecast and control simulations has been shown to marginalize hydrologic uncertainty, reduce model bias, and remove systematic variance when predicting mean monthly and mean annual streamflow, prompting our investigation for maxima streamflow. We assess the variance structure of streamflow maxima using realizations of emission scenario, global climate model type and project phase, downscaling methods, bias correction, extreme value methods, and hydrologic model inputs and parameterization. Results show that the relative change of streamflow maxima was not dependent on systematic variance from the annual maxima versus peak over threshold method applied, albeit we stress that researchers strictly adhere to rules from extreme value theory when applying the peak over threshold method. Regardless of which method is applied, extreme value model fitting does add variance to the projection, and the variance is an increasing function of the return period. Unlike the relative change of mean streamflow, results show that the variance of the maxima's relative change was dependent on all climate model factors tested as well as hydrologic model inputs and calibration. Ensemble projections forecast an increase of streamflow maxima for 2050 with pronounced forecast standard error, including an increase of +30(±21), +38(±34) and +51(±85)% for 2, 20 and 100 year streamflow events for the wet temperate region studied. The variance of maxima projections was dominated by climate model factors and extreme value analyses.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change On Groundwater Recharge and Streamflow In A Central European Low Mountain Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckhardt, K.; Ulbrich, U.

General Circulation Model simulations indicate a significant rise of temperature and changes in precipitation over Europe as part of the anthropogenic climate change. In this study, the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range catchment are investigated using a concep- tual ecohydrologic model. Two climate change scenarios are considered, one with low and one with high climate sensitivity. The changes in temperature and precipitation associated with these projections are taken from multi-model estimates and enter the hydrologic model assuming a sinusodial annual cycle of temperature and precipitation changes. The resulting changes in annual mean groundwater recharge and streamflow are rather small, as increased atmospheric CO2 levels reduce stomatal conductance thus counteracting the increase of potential evapotranspiration induced by rising tem- peratures. There are, however, more pronounced changes associated with the mean annual cycle of groundwater recharge and streamflow. Snowmelt at the beginning of spring is reduced. Instead, runoff and hence flood risk in winter increase. In summer, groundwater recharge and streamflow are reduced by up to 50%. This could have neg- ative consequences for water quality, groundwater withdrawals and energy production by water power. Plant growth will be stimulated by the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Due to the temperature rise, the growing season will begin earlier in the year. However, the risk of desiccation injuries increases as well.

Low-Flow Characteristics and Regionalization of Low-Flow Characteristics for Selected Streams in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funkhouser, Jaysson E.; Eng, Ken; Moix, Matthew W.

2008-01-01

Water use in Arkansas has increased dramatically in recent years. Since 1990, the use of water for all purposes except power generation has increased 53 percent (4,004 cubic feet per second in 1990 to 6,113 cubic feet per second in 2005). The biggest users are agriculture (90 percent), municipal water supply (4 percent) and industrial supply (2 percent). As the population of the State continues to grow, so does the demand for the State's water resources. The low-flow characteristics of a stream ultimately affect its utilization by humans. Specific information on the low-flow characteristics of streams is essential to State water-management agencies such as the Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality, the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, and the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission when dealing with problems related to irrigation, municipal and industrial water supplies, fish and wildlife conservation, and dilution of waste. Low-flow frequency data are of particular value to management agencies responsible for the development and management of the State's water resources. This report contains the low-flow characteristics for 70 active continuous-streamflow record gaging stations, 59 inactive continuous-streamflow record stations, and 101 partial-record gaging stations. These characteristics are the annual 7-day, 10-year low flow and the annual 7-day, 2-year low flow, and the seasonal, bimonthly, and monthly 7-day, 10-year low flow for the 129 active and inactive continuous-streamflow record and 101 partial-record gaging stations. Low-flow characteristics were computed on the basis of streamflow data for the period of record through September 2005 for the continuous-streamflow record and partial-record streamflow gaging stations. The low-flow characteristics of these continuous- and partial-record streamflow gaging stations were utilized in a regional regression analysis to produce equations for estimating the annual, seasonal, bimonthly, and monthly (November through April) 7-day, 10-year low flows and the annual 7-day, 2-year low flow for ungaged streams in the western two-thirds of Arkansas.

Sediment transport and water-quality characteristics and loads, White River, northwestern Colorado, water years 1975-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tobin, R.L.

1993-01-01

Streamflow, sediment, and water-quality data are summarized for 6 sites on the White River, Colorado for water years 1975-88. Correlation techniques were used to estimate annual data for unmeasured years. Annual stream discharge in the main stem of the White River ranged from about 200,000 to about 1 million acre-feet. Generally, bedload was less than/= 3.3 percent of total sediment load. Annual suspended-sediment loads ranged from about 2,100 tons at the upstream sites on the North Fork and South Fork of the White River to about 2 million tons at the most downstream site. Average annual suspended-sediment loads ranged from about 11,000 tons at the upstream sites to about 705,000 tons at the most downstream site. Annual capacity losses in a 50,000 acre-ft reservoir could range from less than 0.01 percent near upstream sites to about 2.5 percent near downstream sites. Maximum water temperatures in the White River ranged from less than 20 to 25 C in summer. Specific conductance ranged from 200 to 1,000 microsiemens/cm. Generally, values of pH ranged from 7.6 to 8.8, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen were greater than 6.0 mg/L. In small streamflows, values of pH and dissolved oxygen were affected by biologic processes. Composition of dissolved solids in the White River was mostly calcium, bicarbonate, and(or) sulfate. Changes in the composition of dissolved solids caused by the changes in the concentrations of sodium and sulfate were greatest in small stream discharges. Annual loads of dissolved solids ranged from 21,100 tons in the South Fork to about 480,000 tons at the most downstream site. Total solids transport in the White River was mostly as dissolved solids at upstream sites and mostly as suspended sediment at downstream sites. Concentration ranges of nutrients and trace constituents were determined.

Characterization of surface-water resources in the Great Basin National Park area and their susceptibility to ground-water withdrawals in adjacent valleys, White Pine County, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, Peggy E.; Beck, David A.; Prudic, David E.

2006-01-01

Eight drainage basins and one spring within the Great Basin National Park area were monitored continually from October 2002 to September 2004 to quantify stream discharge and assess the natural variability in flow. Mean annual discharge for the stream drainages ranged from 0 cubic feet per second at Decathon Canyon to 9.08 cubic feet per second at Baker Creek. Seasonal variability in streamflow generally was uniform throughout the network. Minimum and maximum mean monthly discharges occurred in February and June, respectively, at all but one of the perennial streamflow sites. Synoptic-discharge, specific-conductance, and water- and air-temperature measurements were collected during the spring, summer, and autumn of 2003 along selected reaches of Strawberry, Shingle, Lehman, Baker, and Snake Creeks, and Big Wash to determine areas where surface-water resources would be susceptible to ground-water withdrawals in adjacent valleys. Comparison of streamflow and water-property data to the geology along each stream indicated areas where surface-water resources likely or potentially would be susceptible to ground-water withdrawals. These areas consist of reaches where streams (1) are in contact with permeable rocks or sediments, or (2) receive water from either spring discharge or ground-water inflow.

Connecting Snowmelt Runoff Timing Changes to Watershed Characteristics in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, I. T.; Peterson, D. H.

2008-12-01

Shifts in the timing of snowmelt runoff are an expected consequence of climatic changes and have been observed throughout western North America for the past several decades. While the snowmelt runoff has in general come earlier, the magnitude, and sometimes direction, of streamflow timing trends has varied throughout the region in a manner that is not explained by the differences in location or gauge elevation alone. The gauge-to-gauge differences in the observed streamflow timing trends, which have not been systematically explored, are investigated in this study by linking the hydrologic response of a stream to the physical characteristics of the watershed above the gauge. To this end, the very recent trends in streamflow timing measures (such as the timing of the start of the spring snowmelt pulse, the timing of the center of mass for flow, the annual flow, and the timing of the day when maximum flow occurs) for approximately 60 snowmelt-dominated gauges in California were analyzed in conjunction with a GIS-based data base of the watershed characteristics (such as elevation distribution, slope, aspect, and vegetation) through the 2008 runoff season. The improved knowledge of how a watershed has reacted to recent climatic changes can aid in the development of future adaptive strategies in managing water resources in California.

Physiographic and land cover attributes of the Puget Lowland and the active streamflow gaging network, Puget Sound Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher; Sevier, Maria

2014-01-01

Geospatial information for the active streamflow gaging network in the Puget Sound Basin was compiled to support regional monitoring of stormwater effects to small streams. The compilation includes drainage area boundaries and physiographic and land use attributes that affect hydrologic processes. Three types of boundaries were used to tabulate attributes: Puget Sound Watershed Characterization analysis units (AU); the drainage area of active streamflow gages; and the catchments of Regional Stream Monitoring Program (RSMP) sites. The active streamflow gaging network generally includes sites that represent the ranges of attributes for lowland AUs, although there are few sites with low elevations (less than 60 meters), low precipitation (less than 1 meter year), or high stream density (greater than 5 kilometers per square kilometers). The active streamflow gaging network can serve to provide streamflow information in some AUs and RSMP sites, particularly where the streamflow gage measures streamflow generated from a part of the AU or that drains to the RSMP site, and that part of the AU or RSMP site is a significant fraction of the drainage area of the streamgage. The maximum fraction of each AU or RSMP catchment upstream of a streamflow gage and the maximum fraction of any one gaged basin in an AU or RSMP along with corresponding codes are provided in the attribute tables.

Sediment Transport in the Lower Yampa River, Northwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, John G.; Kircher, James E.; Von Guerard, Paul

1984-01-01

Discharge measurements and sediment samples were taken at streamflow-gaging station 09260050 Yampa River at Deerlodge Park in 1982 and 1983 to determine the annual sediment supply to the Yampa Canyon in Dinosaur National Monument. Forty-three years of discharge records at two tributary sites were combined to determine the historic discharge of the Yampa River at Deerlodge Park. A mean annual hydrograph and flow-duration curve were derived from these data. Sediment-transport equations were derived for total sediment discharge, suspended-sediment discharge, bedload dischagre, and the discharge of sediment in several particle-sizes. Annual sediment discharge were determined by the flow-duration, sediment-rating-curve method and indicated annual total sediment discharge was approximately 2.0 million tons per year of which 0.8 million tons per year was sand-sized material. Bedload was almost entirely sand, and annual bedload discharge was 0.1 million tons per year. Development of water resources in the Yampa River basin could effect the geomorphic character of the Yampa River at Deerlodge Park and the Yampa Canyon. Several scenarios of altered streamflow frequency distribution, reduced streamflow volume, and reduced sediment supply are examined to estimate the effect on the sediment budget at Deerlodge Park. (USGS)

Assessing streamflow sensitivity to variations in glacier mass balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neel, Shad; Hood, Eran; Arendt, Anthony; Sass, Louis

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate relationships among seasonal and annual glacier mass balances, glacier runoff and streamflow in two glacierized basins in different climate settings. We use long-term glacier mass balance and streamflow datasets from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Benchmark Glacier Program to compare and contrast glacier-streamflow interactions in a maritime climate (Wolverine Glacier) with those in a continental climate (Gulkana Glacier). Our overall goal is to improve our understanding of how glacier mass balance processes impact streamflow, ultimately improving our conceptual understanding of the future evolution of glacier runoff in continental and maritime climates.

Analysis of Streamflow Trends, Ground-Water and Surface-Water Interactions, and Water Quality in the Upper Carson River Basin, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, Douglas K.; Paul, Angela P.; Berger, David L.; Mayers, C. Justin

2008-01-01

Changes in land and water use and increasing development of water resources in the Carson River basin may affect flow of the river and, in turn, affect downstream water users dependent on sustained river flows to Lahontan Reservoir. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Churchill County, and the Truckee-Carson Irrigation District, began a study in April 2006 to compile data on changes in land and water use, ground-water levels and pumping, streamflow, and water quality, and to make preliminary analyses of ground-water and surface-water interactions in the Carson River basin upstream of Lahontan Reservoir. The part of the basin upstream of Lahontan Reservoir is called the upper Carson River basin in this report. In 2005, irrigated agricultural land covered about 39,000 acres in Carson Valley, 3,100 acres in Dayton Valley, and 1,200 acres in Churchill Valley. Changes in land use in Carson Valley from the 1970s to 2005 included the development of about 2,700 acres of native phreatophytes, the development of 2,200 acres of irrigated land, 900 acres of land irrigated in the 1970s that appeared fallow in 2005, and the irrigation of about 2,100 acres of new agricultural land. In Dayton and Churchill Valleys, about 1,000 acres of phreatophytes and 900 acres of irrigated land were developed, about 140 acres of phreatophytes were replaced by irrigation, and about 600 acres of land irrigated in the 1970s were not irrigated in 2006. Ground-water pumping in the upper Carson River basin increases during dry years to supplement surface-water irrigation. Total annual pumping exceeded 20,000 acre-ft in the dry year of 1976, exceeded 30,000 acre-ft in the dry years from 1987 to 1992, and increased rapidly during the dry years from 1999 to 2004, and exceeded 50,000 acre-ft in 2004. As many as 67 public supply wells and 46 irrigation wells have been drilled within 0.5 mile of the Carson River. Pumping from these wells has the potential to affect streamflow of the Carson River. It is not certain, however, if all these wells are used currently. Annual streamflow of the Carson River is extremely variable, ranging from a low of about 26,000 acre-ft in 1977 to slightly more than 800,000 acre-ft in 1983 near Fort Churchill. Graphs of the cumulative annual streamflow and differences in the cumulative annual streamflow at Carson River gaging stations upstream and downstream of Carson and Dayton Valleys show an annual decrease in streamflow. The annual decrease in Carson River streamflow averaged about 47,000 acre-ft through Carson Valley, and about 11,000 acre-ft through Dayton Valley for water years 1940-2006. The decrease in streamflow through Carson and Dayton Valleys is a result of evapotranspiration on irrigated lands and losses to ground-water storage, with greater losses in Carson Valley than in Dayton Valley because of the greater area of irrigated land in Carson Valley.

Summary statistics and graphical comparisons of historical hydrologic and water-quality data, Seco Creek Watershed, South-Central Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, David W.; Slattery, Richard N.; Gilhousen, Jon R.

1998-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey collected hydrologic (rainfall, streamflow, and reservoir content) and water-quality data in the Seco Creek watershed, south-central Texas. Most of the data from 15 sites were collected as part of a study in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board to evaluate the effects of agricultural best-management practices on surface- and ground-water quantity and quality in the 255-square-mile watershed. Nearly 400 best-management practices at 58 sites were implemented by landowners in the watershed during March 1990-September 1995. Most of the data are from the early 1990s, the period during and after implementation of best-management practices. Data from five sites include water quality and are summarized in tables and graphics in the text; and data from all 15 sites are summarized on a diskette. Maximum annual rainfall among the sites for which data are presented in the text (excluding one site) for the during-and-after-implementation period (March 1990-September 1995) was 53.27 inches in water year 1992. Maximum annual total streamflow among the sites for the period was 63,400 acre-feet, also in water year 1992. At the one site with water-quality data (under base-flow conditions) for both the before-implementation period and the during-and-after implementation period of best-management practices, percentiles (5, 25, 50, 75, 95) for specific conductance, nitrate concentration, and fecal coliform density were less for the during-and-after-implementation period than for the before-implementation period.

Ecohydrological Index, Native Fish, and Climate Trends and Relationships in the Kansas River Basin.

PubMed

Sinnathamby, Sumathy; Douglas-Mankin, Kyle R; Muche, Muluken E; Hutchinson, Stacy L; Anandhi, Aavudai

2018-01-01

This study quantified climatological and hydrological trends and relationships to presence and distribution of two native aquatic species in the Kansas River Basin over the past half-century. Trend analyses were applied to indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHAs) at 34 streamgages over a 50-year period (1962-2012). Results showed a significant negative trend in annual streamflow for 10 of 12 western streamgages (up to -7.65 mm/50 yr) and smaller negative trends for most other streamgages. Significant negative trends in western Basin streamflow were more widespread in summer (12 stations) than winter or spring (6 stations). The negative-trend magnitude and significance decreased from west to east for maximum-flow IHAs. Minimum- flow IHAs, however, significantly decreased at High Plains streamgages but significantly increased at Central Great Plains streamgages. Number of zero-flow days showed positive trends in the High Plains. Most streamgages showed negative trends in low- and high-flow pulse frequency and high-flow pulse duration, and positive trends in low-flow pulse duration. These results were consistent with increasing occurrence of drought. Shift in occurrence from present (1860-1950) to absent (2000-2012) was significantly related (p<0.10) to negative trends of 1-day maximum flows (both species) and indices associated with reduced spawning-season flows for Plains Minnow and shifting annual-flow timing and increased flow intermittency for Common Shiner. Both species were absent for all western Basin sites and had different responses to hydrological index trends at eastern Basin sites. These results demonstrate ecohydrological index changes impact distributions of native fish and suggest target factors for assessment or restoration activities.

Estimating 1970-99 average annual groundwater recharge in Wisconsin using streamflow data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Kennedy, James L.

2011-01-01

Average annual recharge in Wisconsin for the period 1970-99 was estimated using streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and partial-record sites. Partial-record sites have discharge measurements collected during low-flow conditions. The average annual base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area is a good approximation of the recharge rate; therefore, once average annual base flow is determined recharge can be calculated. Estimates of recharge for nearly 72 percent of the surface area of the State are provided. The results illustrate substantial spatial variability of recharge across the State, ranging from less than 1 inch to more than 12 inches per year. The average basin size for partial-record sites (50 square miles) was less than the average basin size for the gaging stations (305 square miles). Including results for smaller basins reveals a spatial variability that otherwise would be smoothed out using only estimates for larger basins. An error analysis indicates that the techniques used provide base flow estimates with standard errors ranging from 5.4 to 14 percent.

Effect of reforestation on streamflow in central New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schneider, William Joseph; Ayer, Gordon Roundy

1961-01-01

Hydrologic data have been collected since 1932 in central New York State to determine the effect of reforestation on streamflow. Data are available for three small partly reforested areas and for one nonreforested control area. From 35 to 58 percent of the 3 areas were reforested, mostly with species of pine and spruce. The trees were allowed to grow without thinning or cutting, and by 1958 these reforested areas had developed into dense coniferous woodlots. Intensive statistical analyses of the data from the four study areas were made in 1958. Analyses were made for three hydrologic periods: the dormant season represented by the 6-month period ending April 30, the growing season represented by the 6-month period ending October 31, and the year represented by the 12-month period ending April 30. Analyses of the hydrologic data using multiple correlation with time as a variable and analyses of covariance between early and late periods of record indicated that several significant changes had occurred in the streamflow from the partly reforested study areas. Based on correlation with precipitation, total runoff for the dormant season from the 3 study areas was reduced by annual rates of 0.17 to 0.29 inches per year. Based on correlations with streamflow from a control area, total runoff from the partly reforested Shackham Brook area was reduced by average rates of 0.14 inches per growing season, 0.23 inches per dormant season, and 0.36 inches per hydrologic year. Peak discharges on Shackham Brook during the dormant season were reduced by 1958 by an average of 41 percent for the season, with reductions ranging from an average of 66 percent for November to an average of 16 percent for April. No significant changes were found in the peak discharges for the growing season, rates of base-flow recession, volumes of direct runoff, or annual low flows of streams in the three partly reforested areas. The significant reductions in total runoff are attributed to increases in interception and transpiration in the reforested areas. The reductions in peak discharges during the dormant period are attributed largely to increased interception and sublimation of snowfall, and a gradual desynchronization of snowmelt runoff from the wooded and open areas of partly reforested watersheds. The changes in streamflow occurred gradually over the years; it could not be determined from the data whether changes in streamflow were still occurring in 1958, or whether they had reached a maximum.

Role of surface-water and groundwater interactions on projected summertime streamflow in snow dominated regions : An integrated modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Justin L.; Niswonger, Richard G.

2012-01-01

Previous studies indicate predominantly increasing trends in precipitation across the Western United States, while at the same time, historical streamflow records indicate decreasing summertime streamflow and 25th percentile annual flows. These opposing trends could be viewed as paradoxical, given that several studies suggest that increased annual precipitation will equate to increased annual groundwater recharge, and therefore increased summertime flow. To gain insight on mechanisms behind these potential changes, we rely on a calibrated, integrated surface and groundwater model to simulate climate impacts on surface water/groundwater interactions using 12 general circulation model projections of temperature and precipitation from 2010 to 2100, and evaluate the interplay between snowmelt timing and other hydrologic variables, including streamflow, groundwater recharge, storage, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration. Hydrologic simulations show that the timing of peak groundwater discharge to the stream is inversely correlated to snowmelt runoff and groundwater recharge due to the bank storage effect and reversal of hydraulic gradients between the stream and underlying groundwater. That is, groundwater flow to streams peaks following the decrease in stream depth caused by snowmelt recession, and the shift in snowmelt causes a corresponding shift in groundwater discharge to streams. Our results show that groundwater discharge to streams is depleted during the summer due to earlier drainage of shallow aquifers adjacent to streams even if projected annual precipitation and groundwater recharge increases. These projected changes in surface water/groundwater interactions result in more than a 30% decrease in the projected ensemble summertime streamflow. Our findings clarify causality of observed decreasing summertime flow, highlight important aspects of potential climate change impacts on groundwater resources, and underscore the need for integrated hydrologic models in climate change studies.

Characteristics and trends of streamflow and dissolved solids in the upper Colorado River Basin, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liebermann, Timothy D.; Mueller, David K.; Kircher, James E.; Choquette, Anne F.

1989-01-01

Annual and monthly concentrations and loads of dissolved solids and major constituents were estimated for 70 streamflow-gaging stations in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Trends in streamflow, dissolved-solids concentrations, and dissolved-solids loads were identified. Nonparametric trend-analysis techniques were used to determine step trends resulting from human activities upstream and long-term monotonic trends. Results were compared with physical characteristics of the basin and historical water-resource development in the basin to determine source areas of dissolved solids and possible cause of trends. Mean annual dissolved-solids concentration increases from less than 100 milligrams per liter in the headwater streams to more than 500 milligrams per liter in the outflow from the Upper Colorado River Basin. All the major tributaries that have high concentrations of dissolved solids are downstream from extensive areas of irrigated agriculture. However, irrigation predated the period of record for most sites and was not a factor in many identified trends. Significant annual trends were identified for 30 sites. Most of these trends were related to transbasin exports, changes in land use, salinity-control practices, or reservoir development. The primary factor affecting streamflow and dissolved-solids concentration and load has been the construction of large reservoirs. Reservoirs have decreased the seasonal and annual variability of streamflow and dissolved solids in streams that drain the Gunnison and San Juan River basins. Fontenelle and Flaming Gorge Reservoirs have increased the dissolved-solids load in the Green River because of dissolution of mineral salts from the bank material. The largest trends occurred downstream from Lake Powell. However, the period of record since the completion of filling was too short to estimate the long-term effects of that reservoir.

Relationship Between Satellite-Derived Snow Cover and Snowmelt-Runoff Timing in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Foster, James L.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Riggs, George A.

2010-01-01

MODIS-derived snow cover measured on 30 April in any given year explains approximately 89 % of the variance in stream discharge for maximum monthly streamflow in that year. Observed changes in streamflow appear to be related to increasing maximum air temperatures over the last four decades causing lower spring snow-cover extent. The majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western United States comes from snowmelt, thus analysis of the declining spring snowpack (and resulting declining stream discharge) has important implications for streamflow management in the drought-prone western U.S.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability streamflows for streams in Kansas based on data through water year 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Painter, Colin C.; Heimann, David C.; Lanning-Rush, Jennifer L.

2017-08-14

A study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Transportation and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to develop regression models to estimate peak streamflows of annual exceedance probabilities of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent at ungaged locations in Kansas. Peak streamflow frequency statistics from selected streamgages were related to contributing drainage area and average precipitation using generalized least-squares regression analysis. The peak streamflow statistics were derived from 151 streamgages with at least 25 years of streamflow data through 2015. The developed equations can be used to predict peak streamflow magnitude and frequency within two hydrologic regions that were defined based on the effects of irrigation. The equations developed in this report are applicable to streams in Kansas that are not substantially affected by regulation, surface-water diversions, or urbanization. The equations are intended for use for streams with contributing drainage areas ranging from 0.17 to 14,901 square miles in the nonirrigation effects region and, 1.02 to 3,555 square miles in the irrigation-affected region, corresponding to the range of drainage areas of the streamgages used in the development of the regional equations.

A century of hydrological variability and trends in the Fraser River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Hernández-Henríquez, Marco A.; Owens, Philip N.; Parkes, Margot W.; Petticrew, Ellen L.

2012-06-01

This study examines the 1911-2010 variability and trends in annual streamflow at 139 sites across the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The Fraser River is the largest Canadian waterway flowing to the Pacific Ocean and is one of the world’s greatest salmon rivers. Our analyses reveal high runoff rates and low interannual variability in alpine and coastal rivers, and low runoff rates and high interannual variability in most streams in BC’s interior. The interannual variability in streamflow is also low in rivers such as the Adams, Chilko, Quesnel and Stuart where the principal salmon runs of the Fraser River occur. A trend analysis shows a spatially coherent signal with increasing interannual variability in streamflow across the FRB in recent decades, most notably in spring and summer. The upward trend in the coefficient of variation in annual runoff coincides with a period of near-normal annual runoff for the Fraser River at Hope. The interannual variability in streamflow is greater in regulated rather than natural systems; however, it is unclear whether it is predominantly flow regulation that leads to these observed differences. Environmental changes such as rising air temperatures, more frequent polarity changes in large-scale climate teleconnections such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and retreating glaciers may be contributing to the greater range in annual runoff fluctuations across the FRB. This has implications for ecological processes throughout the basin, for example affecting migrating and spawning salmon, a keystone species vital to First Nations communities as well as to commercial and recreational fisheries. To exemplify this linkage between variable flows and biological responses, the unusual FRB runoff anomalies observed in 2010 are discussed in the context of that year’s sockeye salmon run. As the climate continues to warm, greater variability in annual streamflow, and hence in hydrological extremes, may influence ecological processes and human usage throughout the FRB in the 21st century.

Stream shading, summer streamflow and maximum water temperature following intense wildfire in headwater streams

Treesearch

Michael Amaranthus; Howard Jubas; David Arthur

1989-01-01

Adjacent headwater streams were monitored for postfire shade, summer streamflow and maximum water temperature following the 40,000 ha Silver Complex fire in southern Oregon. Average postfire shade (30 percent) for the three streams was considerably less than prefire shade (est.>90 percent). Dramatic increases in direct solar radiation resulted in large but variable...

Trend analysis and selected summary statistics of annual mean streamflow for 38 selected long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Texas, water years 1916-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Barbie, Dana L.

2014-01-01

Selected summary statistics (L-moments) and estimates of respective sampling variances were computed for the 35 streamgages lacking statistically significant trends. From the L-moments and estimated sampling variances, weighted means or regional values were computed for each L-moment. An example application is included demonstrating how the L-moments could be used to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of annual mean streamflow.

Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

2016-04-01

A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

Geohydrology of the French Creek basin and simulated effects of droughtand ground-water withdrawals, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.

2004-01-01

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Delaware River Basin Commission, to develop a regional ground-water-flow model of the French Creek Basin in Chester County, Pa. The model was used to assist water-resource managers by illustrating the interconnection between ground-water and surface-water systems. The 70.7-mi2 (square mile) French Creek Basin is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province and is underlain by crystalline and sedimentary fractured-rock aquifers. Annual water budgets were calculated for 1969-2001 for the French Creek Basin upstream of streamflow measurement station French Creek near Phoenixville (01472157). Average annual precipitation was 46.28 in. (inches), average annual streamflow was 20.29 in., average annual base flow determined by hydrograph separation was 12.42 in., and estimated average annual ET (evapotranspiration) was 26.10 in. Estimated average annual recharge was 14.32 in. and is equal to 31 percent of the average annual precipitation. Base flow made up an average of 61 percent of streamflow. Ground-water flow in the French Creek Basin was simulated using the finite-difference MODFLOW-96 computer program. The model structure is based on a simplified two-dimensional conceptualization of the ground-water-flow system. The modeled area was extended outside the French Creek Basin to natural hydrologic boundaries; the modeled area includes 40 mi2 of adjacent areas outside the basin. The hydraulic conductivity for each geologic unit was calculated from reported specific-capacity data determined from aquifer tests and was adjusted during model calibration. The model was calibrated for aboveaverage conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on May 1, 2001, using a recharge rate of 20 in/yr (inches per year). The model was calibrated for below-average conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on September 11 and 17, 2001, using a recharge rate of 6.2 in/yr. Average conditions were simulated by adjusting the recharge rate until simulated streamflow at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 matched the long-term (1968-2001) average base flow of 54.1 cubic feet per second. The recharge rate used for average conditions was 15.7 in/yr. The effect of drought in the French Creek Basin was simulated using a drought year recharge rate of 8 in/yr for 3 months. After 3 months of drought, the simulated streamflow of French Creek at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 decreased 34 percent. The simulations show that after 6 months of average recharge (15.7 in/yr) following drought, streamflow and water levels recovered almost to pre-drought conditions. The effect of increased ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow in the South Branch French Creek Subbasin was simulated under average and drought conditions with pumping rates equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the Delaware River Basin Commission Ground Water Protected Area (GWPA) withdrawal limit (1,393 million gallons per year) with all pumped water removed from the basin. For average recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 18, 28, and 37 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. After 3 months of drought recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 27, 40, and 52 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. The effect of well location on base flow, water levels, and the sources of water to the well was simulated by locating a hypothetical well pumping 200 gallons per minute in different places in the Beaver Run Subbasin with all pumped water removed from the basin. The smallest reduction in the base flow of Beaver Run was from a well on the drainage divide

Hydrograph separation techniques in snowmelt-dominated watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, S.; Miller, S. N.

2017-12-01

This study integrates hydrological, geochemical, and isotopic data for a better understanding of different streamflow generation pathways and residence times in a snowmelt-dominated region. A nested watershed design with ten stream gauging sites recording sub-hourly stream stage has been deployed in a snowmelt-dominated region in southeastern Wyoming, heavily impacted by the recent bark beetle epidemic. LiDAR-derived digital elevation models help elucidate effects from topography and watershed metrics. At each stream gauging site, sub-hourly stream water conductivity and temperature data are also recorded. Hydrograph separation is a useful technique for determining different sources of runoff and how volumes from each source vary over time. Following previous methods, diurnal cycles from sub-hourly recorded streamflow and specific conductance data are analyzed and used to separate hydrographs into overland flow and baseflow components, respectively. A final component, vadose-zone flow, is assumed to be the remaining water from the total hydrograph. With access to snowmelt and precipitation data from nearby instruments, runoff coefficients are calculated for the different mechanisms, providing information on watershed response. Catchments are compared to understand how different watershed characteristics translate snowmelt or precipitation events into runoff. Portable autosamplers were deployed at two of the gauging sites for high-frequency analysis of stream water isotopic composition during peak flow to compare methods of hydrograph separation. Sampling rates of one or two hours can detect the diurnal streamflow cycle common during peak snowmelt. Prior research suggests the bark beetle epidemic has had little effect on annual streamflow patterns; however, several results show an earlier shift in the day of year in which peak annual streamflow is observed. The diurnal cycle is likely to comprise a larger percentage of daily streamflow during snowmelt in post-epidemic forests, as more solar radiation is available to penetrate to the ground surface and induce snowmelt, contributing to the effect of an earlier observed peak annual streamflow.

The Application of Censored Regression Models in Low Streamflow Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, C.; Luz, J.

2003-12-01

Estimation of low streamflow statistics at gauged and ungauged river sites is often a daunting task. This process is further confounded by the presence of intermittent streamflows, where streamflow is sometimes reported as zero, within a region. Streamflows recorded as zero may be zero, or may be less than the measurement detection limit. Such data is often referred to as censored data. Numerous methods have been developed to characterize intermittent streamflow series. Logit regression has been proposed to develop regional models of the probability annual lowflows series (such as 7-day lowflows) are zero. In addition, Tobit regression, a method of regression that allows for censored dependent variables, has been proposed for lowflow regional regression models in regions where the lowflow statistic of interest estimated as zero at some sites in the region. While these methods have been proposed, their use in practice has been limited. Here a delete-one jackknife simulation is presented to examine the performance of Logit and Tobit models of 7-day annual minimum flows in 6 USGS water resource regions in the United States. For the Logit model, an assessment is made of whether sites are correctly classified as having at least 10% of 7-day annual lowflows equal to zero. In such a situation, the 7-day, 10-year lowflow (Q710), a commonly employed low streamflow statistic, would be reported as zero. For the Tobit model, a comparison is made between results from the Tobit model, and from performing either ordinary least squares (OLS) or principal component regression (PCR) after the zero sites are dropped from the analysis. Initial results for the Logit model indicate this method to have a high probability of correctly classifying sites into groups with Q710s as zero and non-zero. Initial results also indicate the Tobit model produces better results than PCR and OLS when more than 5% of the sites in the region have Q710 values calculated as zero.

Factors Affecting Firm Yield and the Estimation of Firm Yield for Selected Streamflow-Dominated Drinking-Water-Supply Reservoirs in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldron, Marcus C.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2006-01-01

Factors affecting reservoir firm yield, as determined by application of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection's Firm Yield Estimator (FYE) model, were evaluated, modified, and tested on 46 streamflow-dominated reservoirs representing 15 Massachusetts drinking-water supplies. The model uses a mass-balance approach to determine the maximum average daily withdrawal rate that can be sustained during a period of record that includes the 1960s drought-of-record. The FYE methodology to estimate streamflow to the reservoir at an ungaged site was tested by simulating streamflow at two streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts and comparing the simulated streamflow to the observed streamflow. In general, the FYE-simulated flows agreed well with observed flows. There were substantial deviations from the measured values for extreme high and low flows. A sensitivity analysis determined that the model's streamflow estimates are most sensitive to input values for average annual precipitation, reservoir drainage area, and the soil-retention number-a term that describes the amount of precipitation retained by the soil in the basin. The FYE model currently provides the option of using a 1,000-year synthetic record constructed by randomly sampling 2-year blocks of concurrent streamflow and precipitation records 500 times; however, the synthetic record has the potential to generate records of precipitation and streamflow that do not reflect the worst historical drought in Massachusetts. For reservoirs that do not have periods of drawdown greater than 2 years, the bootstrap does not offer any additional information about the firm yield of a reservoir than the historical record does. For some reservoirs, the use of a synthetic record to determine firm yield resulted in as much as a 30-percent difference between firm-yield values from one simulation to the next. Furthermore, the assumption that the synthetic traces of streamflow are statistically equivalent to the historical record is not valid. For multiple-reservoir systems, the firm-yield estimate was dependent on the reservoir system's configuration. The firm yield of a system is sensitive to how the water is transferred from one reservoir to another, the capacity of the connection between the reservoirs, and how seasonal variations in demand are represented in the FYE model. Firm yields for 25 (14 single-reservoir systems and 11 multiple-reservoir systems) reservoir systems were determined by using the historical records of streamflow and precipitation. Current water-use data indicate that, on average, 20 of the 25 reservoir systems in the study were operating below their estimated firm yield; during months with peak demands, withdrawals exceeded the firm yield for 8 reservoir systems.

Techniques for estimating streamflow characteristics in the Eastern and Interior coal provinces of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wetzel, Kim L.; Bettandorff, J.M.

1986-01-01

Techniques are presented for estimating various streamflow characteristics, such as peak flows, mean monthly and annual flows, flow durations, and flow volumes, at ungaged sites on unregulated streams in the Eastern Coal region. Streamflow data and basin characteristics for 629 gaging stations were used to develop multiple-linear-regression equations. Separate equations were developed for the Eastern and Interior Coal Provinces. Drainage area is an independent variable common to all equations. Other variables needed, depending on the streamflow characteristic, are mean annual precipitation, mean basin elevation, main channel length, basin storage, main channel slope, and forest cover. A ratio of the observed 50- to 90-percent flow durations was used in the development of relations to estimate low-flow frequencies in the Eastern Coal Province. Relations to estimate low flows in the Interior Coal Province are not presented because the standard errors were greater than 0.7500 log units and were considered to be of poor reliability.

Changes in seasonal streamflow extremes experienced in rivers of Northwestern South America (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierini, J. O.; Restrepo, J. C.; Aguirre, J.; Bustamante, A. M.; Velásquez, G. J.

2017-04-01

A measure of the variability in seasonal extreme streamflow was estimated for the Colombian Caribbean coast, using monthly time series of freshwater discharge from ten watersheds. The aim was to detect modifications in the streamflow monthly distribution, seasonal trends, variance and extreme monthly values. A 20-year length time moving window, with 1-year successive shiftments, was applied to the monthly series to analyze the seasonal variability of streamflow. The seasonal-windowed data were statistically fitted through the Gamma distribution function. Scale and shape parameters were computed using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the bootstrap method for 1000 resample. A trend analysis was performed for each windowed-serie, allowing to detect the window of maximum absolute values for trends. Significant temporal shifts in seasonal streamflow distribution and quantiles (QT), were obtained for different frequencies. Wet and dry extremes periods increased significantly in the last decades. Such increase did not occur simultaneously through the region. Some locations exhibited continuous increases only at minimum QT.

Estimates of ground-water recharge based on streamflow-hydrograph methods: Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, Dennis W.; Conger, Randall W.; Ulrich, James E.; Asmussen, Michael P.

2005-01-01

This study, completed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey (T&GS), provides estimates of ground-water recharge for watersheds throughout Pennsylvania computed by use of two automated streamflow-hydrograph-analysis methods--PART and RORA. The PART computer program uses a hydrograph-separation technique to divide the streamflow hydrograph into components of direct runoff and base flow. Base flow can be a useful approximation of recharge if losses and interbasin transfers of ground water are minimal. The RORA computer program uses a recession-curve displacement technique to estimate ground-water recharge from each storm period indicated on the streamflow hydrograph. Recharge estimates were made using streamflow records collected during 1885-2001 from 197 active and inactive streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania where streamflow is relatively unaffected by regulation. Estimates of mean-annual recharge in Pennsylvania computed by the use of PART ranged from 5.8 to 26.6 inches; estimates from RORA ranged from 7.7 to 29.3 inches. Estimates from the RORA program were about 2 inches greater than those derived from the PART program. Mean-monthly recharge was computed from the RORA program and was reported as a percentage of mean-annual recharge. On the basis of this analysis, the major ground-water recharge period in Pennsylvania typically is November through May; the greatest monthly recharge typically occurs in March.

Using diurnal streamflow and conductivity data to monitor and forecast runoff in a snowmelt dominated watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, S.; Miller, S. N.

2016-12-01

Natural diurnal fluctuations in streamflow are common in many types of streams and scales for different reasons (i.e. snowmelt, evapotranspiration, infiltration, precipitation). Scientific literature has placed little consideration on the role diurnal cycles as they may appear insignificant from a water management point of view; however, recent insights into the timing and shape of the diurnal cycle have led to new methods for eco-hydrologic characterization of a given watershed. The diurnal effect is usually not detectible from visual investigation of a stream, but requires a minimum of hourly continuous measurement. In the 1990s the United States Geological Survey began collecting hourly river stage measurements for thousands of stream gauge stations across the US, ushering in new methods of analysis and comparison. A nested watershed study with ten stream gauging stations recording sub-hourly river stage was deployed in a snowmelt-dominated region of the Medicine Bow National Forest in southeastern Wyoming in 2013. In addition, at each stream gauging station sub-hourly conductivity and temperature data was recorded to aid in eco-hydrologic characterization of the different watersheds. Early summer results show asymmetry in the diurnal cycle during snowmelt, with a steeper rising and a flatter falling limb. As snowmelt becomes a less contributing component of streamflow later in the season, the asymmetry shifts to a flatter rising limb and steeper falling limb. Stream conductivity is low during snowmelt and begins to gradually increase as baseflow becomes a larger portion of total streamflow. The study region is recovering from a mountain pine beetle epidemic that peaked in 2008. Prior research suggests the bark beetle epidemic has had little effect on annual streamflow patterns; however, several results show an earlier shift in the day of year in which peak annual streamflow is observed. The diurnal cycle is likely to comprise a larger percentage of daily streamflow during snowmelt in post-epidemic forests, as more solar radiation is available to penetrate to the ground surface and induce snowmelt, contributing to the effect of an earlier observed peak annual streamflow.

Hydro-climatic data network (HCDN); a U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data set for the United States for the study of climate variations, 1874-1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slack, J.R.; Landwehr, Jurate Maciunas

1992-01-01

Records of streamflow can provide an account of climatic variation over a hydrologic basin. The ability to do so is conditioned on the absence of confounding factors that diminish the climate signal. A national data set of streamflow records that are relatively free of confounding anthropogenic influences has been developed for the purpose of studying the variation in surface-water conditions throughout the United States. Records in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE) data base for active and discontinued streamflow gaging stations through water year 1988 (that is, through September 30, 1988) were reviewed jointly with data specialists in each USGS District office. The resulting collection of stations, each with its respective period of record satisfying the qualifying criteria, is called the Hydro-Climatic Data Network, or HCDN. The HCDN consists of 1,659 sites throughout the United States and its territories, totaling 73,231 water years of daily mean discharge values. For each station in the HCDN, information necessary for its identification, along with any qualifying comments about the available record and a set of descriptive watershed characteristics are provided in tabular format in this report, both on paper and on computer disk (enclosed). For each station in the HCDN, the appropriate daily mean discharge values were compiled, and statistical characteristics, including monthly mean discharges and annual mean, minimum and maximum discharges, were derived. The discharge data values are provided in a companion report.

Continuous Tidal Streamflow and Gage-Height Data for Bass and Cinder Creeks on Kiawah Island, South Carolina, September 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Erbland, John W.

2009-01-01

A three-dimensional model of Bass and Cinder Creeks on Kiawah Island, South Carolina, was developed to evaluate methodologies for determining fecal coliform total maximum daily loads for shellfish waters. To calibrate the model, two index-velocity sites on the creeks were instrumented with continuous acoustic velocity meters and water-level sensors to compute a 21-day continuous record of tidal streamflows. In addition to monitoring tidal cycles, streamflow measurements were made at the index-velocity sites, and tidal-cycle streamflow measurements were made at the mouth of Bass Creek and on the Stono River to characterize the streamflow dynamics near the ocean boundary of the three-dimensional model at the beginning, September 6, 2007, and end, September 26, 2007, of the index-velocity meter deployment. The maximum floodtide and ebbtide measured on the Stono River by the mouth of Bass Creek for the two measurements were -155,000 and 170,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). At the mouth of Bass Creek, the maximum floodtide and ebbtide measurements during the 2 measurement days were +/-10,200 ft3/s. Tidal streamflows for the 21-day deployment on Bass Creek ranged from -2,510 ft3/s for an incoming tide to 4,360 ft3/s for an outgoing tide. On Cinder Creek, the incoming and outgoing tide varied from -2,180 to 2,400 ft3/s during the same period.

Temporal and spatial changes of rainfall and streamflow in the Upper Tekezē-Atbara river basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebremicael, Tesfay G.; Mohamed, Yasir A.; Zaag, Pieter v.; Hagos, Eyasu Y.

2017-04-01

The Upper Tekezē-Atbara river sub-basin, part of the Nile Basin, is characterized by high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and streamflow. In spite of its importance for sustainable water use and food security, the changing patterns of streamflow and its association with climate change is not well understood. This study aims to improve the understanding of the linkages between rainfall and streamflow trends and identify possible drivers of streamflow variabilities in the basin. Trend analyses and change-point detections of rainfall and streamflow were analysed using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, respectively, using data records for 21 rainfall and 9 streamflow stations. The nature of changes and linkages between rainfall and streamflow were carefully examined for monthly, seasonal and annual flows, as well as indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA). The trend and change-point analyses found that 19 of the tested 21 rainfall stations did not show statistically significant changes. In contrast, trend analyses on the streamflow showed both significant increasing and decreasing patterns. A decreasing trend in the dry season (October to February), short season (March to May), main rainy season (June to September) and annual totals is dominant in six out of the nine stations. Only one out of nine gauging stations experienced significant increasing flow in the dry and short rainy seasons, attributed to the construction of Tekezē hydropower dam upstream this station in 2009. Overall, streamflow trends and change-point timings were found to be inconsistent among the stations. Changes in streamflow without significant change in rainfall suggests factors other than rainfall drive the change. Most likely the observed changes in streamflow regimes could be due to changes in catchment characteristics of the basin. Further studies are needed to verify and quantify the hydrological changes shown in statistical tests by identifying the physical mechanisms behind those changes. The findings from this study are useful as a prerequisite for studying the effects of catchment management dynamics on the hydrological variabilities in the basin.

Sand deposition in shoreline eddies along five Wild and Scenic Rivers, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, E.D.; Vincent, K.R.

2007-01-01

Sand bars deposited along the lateral margin of a river channel are frequently a focus of recreational activities. Sand bars are appealing sites on which to camp, picnic, fish and relax because they are relatively flat, soft, non-cohesive sand, free of vegetation and near the water's edge. The lack of vegetation and cohesion make sand bars easily erodible. Without appreciable deposition of new material, number and size of bars through a given reach of river will decline substantially over a period of years. We studied 63 beaches and their associated eddies located throughout 10 selected reaches within the designated Wild and Scenic River sections of the Lochsa, Selway, Middle Fork Clearwater, Middle Fork Salmon and Salmon Rivers in Idaho to determine the relation of beaches to the frequency and magnitude of streamflows that deposit appreciable quantities of sand. At present, these rivers have been altered little, if at all, by flow regulation, and only the Salmon River has substantial diversion upstream of a study reach. The river reaches studied have an abundance of sand bar beaches of appreciable size, in spite of suspended sand concentrations that rarely exceeded a few hundred milligrams per litre even during the largest floods. Calculated mean annual rates of deposition in an eddy vary from 5.8 to more than 100 cm depending primarily on: (1) the duration of streamflows that inundate the eddy sand bar depositions; (2) the rate of the flow exchange between the channel and an eddy and (3) the concentrations of suspended sand in the primary channel. The annual thickness of sand deposition in an eddy varies greatly from year to year depending on the duration of relatively large streamflows. Maximum annual sand depositions in an eddy are three to nine times the estimated long-term mean values. Relatively large, sustained floods deposit an appreciable portion of total deposition over a period of years. For the period of record, 1930-2002, the seven largest annual depositions, which represent more than 40% of all material deposited over the Lochsa River 21.9 km eddy, occurred in the years with the seven largest instantaneous annual peak floods. Beach area and volume for most beaches, however, are less variable year-to-year than the variation in annual deposition would indicate. Accumulative 10-year weighed deposition rate was computed to estimate the effective variability of beach deposition. Although less variable than the annual deposition, the cumulative 10-year deposition calculated for the longest hydrologic records, 71 years, existing on the Idaho Wild and Scenic Rivers varied by more than an order of magnitude from less than 20 cm to more than 220 cm.

Suspended sediment and bedload in the First Broad River Basin in Cleveland County, North Carolina, 2008-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hazell, William F.; Huffman, Brad A.

2011-01-01

A study was conducted to characterize sediment transport upstream and downstream from a proposed dam on the First Broad River near the town of Lawndale in Cleveland County, North Carolina. Streamflow was measured continuously, and 381 suspended-sediment samples were collected between late March 2008 and September 2009 at two monitoring stations on the First Broad River to determine the suspended-sediment load at each site for the period April 2008-September 2009. In addition, 22 bedload samples were collected at the two sites to describe the relative contribution of bedload to total sediment load during selected events. Instantaneous streamflow, suspended-sediment, and bedload samples were collected at Knob Creek near Lawndale, North Carolina, to describe general suspended-sediment and bedload characteristics at this tributary to the First Broad River. Suspended- and bedload-sediment samples were collected at all three sites during a variety of flow conditions. Streamflow and suspended-sediment measurements were compared with historical data from a long-term (1959-2009) streamflow station located upstream from Lawndale. The mean streamflow at the long-term streamflow station was approximately 60 percent less during the study period than the long-term annual mean streamflow for the site. Suspended-sediment concentrations and continuous records of streamflow were used to estimate suspended-sediment loads and yields at the two monitoring stations on the First Broad River for the period April 2008-September 2009 and for a complete annual cycle (October 2008-September 2009), also known as a water year. Total suspended-sediment loads during water year 2009 were 18,700 and 36,500 tons at the two sites. High-flow events accounted for a large percentage of the total load, suggesting that the bulk of the total suspended-sediment load was transported during these events. Suspended-sediment yields during water year 2009 were 145 and 192 tons per square mile at the two monitoring stations. Historically, the estimated mean annual suspended-sediment yield at the long-term streamflow station during the period 1970-1979 was 250 tons per square mile, with an estimated mean annual suspended-sediment load of 15,000 tons. Drought conditions throughout most of the study period were a potential factor in the smaller yields at the monitoring stations compared to the yields estimated at the long-term streamflow station in the 1970s. During an extreme runoff event on January 7, 2009, bedload was 0.4 percent, 0.8 percent, and 0.1 percent of the total load at the three study sites, which indicates that during extreme runoff conditions the percentage of the total load that is bedload is not significant. The percentages of the total load that is bedload during low-flow conditions ranged from 0.1 to 90.8, which indicate that the bedload is variable both spatially and temporally.

Ground-Water Occurrence and Contribution to Streamflow, Northeast Maui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gingerich, Stephen B.

1999-01-01

The study area lies on the northern flank of the East Maui Volcano (Haleakala) and covers about 129 square miles between the drainage basins of Maliko Gulch to the west and Makapipi Stream to the east. About 989 million gallons per day of rainfall and 176 million gallons per day of fog drip reaches the study area and about 529 million gallons per day enters the ground-water system as recharge. Average annual ground-water withdrawal from wells totals only about 3 million gallons per day; proposed (as of 1998) additional withdrawals total about 18 million gallons per day. Additionally, tunnels and ditches of an extensive irrigation network directly intercept at least 10 million gallons per day of ground water. The total amount of average annual streamflow in gaged stream subbasins upstream of 1,300 feet altitude is about 255 million gallons per day and the total amount of average annual base flow is about 62 million gallons per day. Six major surface-water diversion systems in the study area have diverted an average of 163 million gallons per day of streamflow (including nearly all base flow of diverted streams) for irrigation and domestic supply in central Maui during 1925-97. Fresh ground water is found in two main forms. West of Keanae Valley, ground-water flow appears to be dominated by a variably saturated system. A saturated zone in the uppermost rock unit, the Kula Volcanics, is separated from a freshwater lens near sea level by an unsaturated zone in the underlying Honomanu Basalt. East of Keanae Valley, the ground-water system appears to be fully saturated above sea level to altitudes greater than 2,000 feet. The total average annual streamflow of gaged streams west of Keanae Valley is about 140 million gallons per day at 1,200 feet to 1,300 feet altitude. It is not possible to estimate the total average annual streamflow at the coast. All of the base flow measured in the study area west of Keanae Valley represents ground-water discharge from the high-elevation saturated zone. Total average daily ground-water discharge from the high-elevation saturated zone upstream of 1,200 feet altitude is greater than 38 million gallons per day, all of which is eventually removed from the streams by surface-water diversion systems. Perennial streamflow has been measured at altitudes greater than 3,000 feet in several of the streams. Discharge from the high-elevation saturated zone is persistent even during periods of little rainfall. The total average annual streamflow of the gaged streams east of Keanae Valley is about 109 million gallons per day at about 1,300 feet altitude. It is not possible to estimate the total average annual streamflow at the coast nor at higher altitudes. All of the base flow measured east of Keanae Valley represents ground-water discharge from the vertically extensive freshwater-lens system. Total average daily ground-water discharge to gaged streams upstream of 1,200 feet altitude is about 27 million gallons per day. About 19 million gallons per day of ground water discharges through the Kula and Hana Volcanics between about 500 feet and 1,300 feet altitude in the gaged stream sub-basins. About 13 million gallons per day of this discharge is in Hanawi Stream. The total ground-water discharge above 500 feet altitude in this part of the study area is greater than 56 million gallons per day.

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Markstrom, Steve L.; Regan, R. Steve; Elliott, Caroline M.; Jones, John W.

2013-01-01

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Streamflow trends in the Spokane River and tributaries, Spokane Valley/Rathdrum Prairie, Idaho and Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hortness, Jon E.; Covert, John J.

2005-01-01

A clear understanding of the aquifer and river dynamics within the Spokane Valley/Rathdrum Prairie is essential in making proper management decisions concerning ground-water and surface-water appropriations. Management of the Spokane Valley/Rathdrum Prairie aquifer is complicated because of interstate, multi-jurisdictional responsibilities, and by the interaction between ground water and surface water. Kendall?s tau trend analyses were completed on monthly mean (July through December) and annual 7-day low streamflow data for the period 1968?2002 from gaging stations located within the Spokane Valley/Rathdrum Prairie. The analyses detected trends of decreasing monthly mean streamflow at the following gaging stations: Spokane River near Post Falls, Idaho (August and September); Spokane River at Spokane, Washington (September); and Little Spokane River at Dartford, Washington (September and October); and decreasing annual 7-day low streamflows at the following gaging stations: Spokane River near Post Falls, Idaho and Spokane River at Spokane, Washington. Limited analyses of lake-level, precipitation, tributary inflow, temperature, and water-use data provided little insight as to the reason for the decreasing trends in streamflow. A net gain in streamflow occurs between the gaging stations Spokane River near Post Falls, Idaho and Spokane River at Spokane, Washington. Significant streamflow losses occur between the gaging stations Spokane River near Post Falls, Idaho and Spokane River at Greenacres, Washington; most, if not all, of the gains occur downstream from the Greenacres gaging station. Trends of decreasing net streamflow gains in the Spokane River between the near Post Falls and at Spokane gaging stations were detected for the months of September, October, and November.

Streamflow, sediment-transport, and water-temperature characteristics of the three small watersheds in the Alsea River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, David Dell; Williams, Robert Charles

1971-01-01

Data collected during the prelogging period 1959-65 indicate an average annual runoff for Needle Branch and Deer and Flynn Creeks of 74.2, 75.1, and 77.7 inches, respectively. The measured precipitation at Flynn Creek of 92.9 inches was 5 inches less than at either Needle Branch or Deer Creek. Unit flood runoff during the prelogging period was found to be lowest on Flynn Creek and highest on Needle Branch. On Needle Branch, there appear to be two distinct low-flow patterns, one for a saturated and one for an unsaturated soil condition. The average annual sediment yield was highest on Flynn Creek, 321 tons per square mile, and lowest on Needle Branch, 166 tons per square mile. Maximum water temperatures were 62?F on Flynn Creek and 61?F on Needle Branch and Deer Creek.

Estimates of natural streamflow at two streamgages on the Esopus Creek, New York, water years 1932 to 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; Gazoorian, Christopher L.

2015-01-01

Natural discharge at the Mount Marion streamgage was estimated by summing the natural discharge estimated for the Coldbrook streamgage and the discharge estimated for the intervening basin area through application of the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool, recently developed for estimating unaltered streamflow at ungaged locations in the State. Estimates of natural daily discharge at the Mount Marion streamgage were about three times greater than gaged daily discharge throughout the moderate- to low-flow range from October 1, 1970, to September 30, 2012, the period of record for full water years at this streamgage. The relative difference between the two discharge time series declined as flow increased beyond the moderate range, but gaged daily discharge was still 25 to 43 percent less than estimated natural daily discharge for the high-flow metrics calculated in this analysis, and the mean relative difference was 43 percent for the annual 1-day maximum discharge. Overall, these estimates of natural discharge reflect the absence of effects of the Shandaken Tunnel and Ashokan Reservoir on flows in the Esopus Creek over broad time frames. However, caution is warranted if one is attempting to apply the natural estimates at short time scales because the regression prediction intervals indicate that uncertainty at a daily time step ranges from about 40 to 80 percent.

Use of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and bacterial source tracking for development of the fecal coliform total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Blacks Run, Rockingham County, Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyer, Douglas; Hyer, Kenneth

2003-01-01

Impairment of surface waters by fecal coliform bacteria is a water-quality issue of national scope and importance. Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act requires that each State identify surface waters that do not meet applicable water-quality standards. In Virginia, more than 175 stream segments are on the 1998 Section 303(d) list of impaired waters because of violations of the water-quality standard for fecal coliform bacteria. A total maximum daily load (TMDL) will need to be developed by 2006 for each of these impaired streams and rivers by the Virginia Departments of Environmental Quality and Conservation and Recreation. A TMDL is a quantitative representation of the maximum load of a given water-quality constituent, from all point and nonpoint sources, that a stream can assimilate without violating the designated water-quality standard. Blacks Run, in Rockingham County, Virginia, is one of the stream segments listed by the State of Virginia as impaired by fecal coliform bacteria. Watershed modeling and bacterial source tracking were used to develop the technical components of the fecal coliform bacteria TMDL for Accotink Creek. The Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow, fecal coliform concentrations, and source-specific fecal coliform loading in Blacks Run. Ribotyping, a bacterial source tracking technique, was used to identify the dominant sources of fecal coliform bacteria in the Blacks Run watershed. Ribotyping also was used to determine the relative contributions of specific sources to the observed fecal coliform load in Blacks Run. Data from the ribotyping analysis were incorporated into the calibration of the fecal coliform model. Study results provide information regarding the calibration of the streamflow and fecal coliform bacteria models and also identify the reductions in fecal coliform loads required to meet the TMDL for Blacks Run. The calibrated streamflow model simulated observed streamflow characteristics with respect to total annual runoff, seasonal runoff, average daily streamflow, and hourly stormflow. The calibrated fecal coliform model simulated the patterns and range of observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations. Observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations during low-flow periods ranged from 40 to 7,000 colonies per 100 milliliters, and peak concentrations during storm-flow periods ranged from 33,000 to 260,000 colonies per 100 milliliters. Simulated source-specific contributions of fecal coliform bacteria to instream load were matched to the observed contributions from the dominant sources, which were cats, cattle, deer, dogs, ducks, geese, horses, humans, muskrats, poultry, raccoons, and sheep. According to model results, a 95-percent reduction in the current fecal coliform load delivered from the watershed to Blacks Run would result in compliance with the designated water-quality goals and associated TMDL.

Use of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and Bacterial Source Tracking for Development of the fecal coliform Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for Accotink Creek, Fairfax County, Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyer, Douglas; Hyer, Kenneth

2003-01-01

Impairment of surface waters by fecal coliform bacteria is a water-quality issue of national scope and importance. Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act requires that each State identify surface waters that do not meet applicable water-quality standards. In Virginia, more than 175 stream segments are on the 1998 Section 303(d) list of impaired waters because of violations of the water-quality standard for fecal coliform bacteria. A total maximum daily load (TMDL) will need to be developed by 2006 for each of these impaired streams and rivers by the Virginia Departments of Environmental Quality and Conservation and Recreation. A TMDL is a quantitative representation of the maximum load of a given water-quality constituent, from all point and nonpoint sources, that a stream can assimilate without violating the designated water-quality standard. Accotink Creek, in Fairfax County, Virginia, is one of the stream segments listed by the State of Virginia as impaired by fecal coliform bacteria. Watershed modeling and bacterial source tracking were used to develop the technical components of the fecal coliform bacteria TMDL for Accotink Creek. The Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow, fecal coliform concentrations, and source-specific fecal coliform loading in Accotink Creek. Ribotyping, a bacterial source tracking technique, was used to identify the dominant sources of fecal coliform bacteria in the Accotink Creek watershed. Ribotyping also was used to determine the relative contributions of specific sources to the observed fecal coliform load in Accotink Creek. Data from the ribotyping analysis were incorporated into the calibration of the fecal coliform model. Study results provide information regarding the calibration of the streamflow and fecal coliform bacteria models and also identify the reductions in fecal coliform loads required to meet the TMDL for Accotink Creek. The calibrated streamflow model simulated observed streamflow characteristics with respect to total annual runoff, seasonal runoff, average daily streamflow, and hourly stormflow. The calibrated fecal coliform model simulated the patterns and range of observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations. Observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations during low-flow periods ranged from 25 to 800 colonies per 100 milliliters, and peak concentrations during storm-flow periods ranged from 19,000 to 340,000 colonies per 100 milliliters. Simulated source-specific contributions of fecal coliform bacteria to instream load were matched to the observed contributions from the dominant sources, which were cats, deer, dogs, ducks, geese, humans, muskrats, and raccoons. According to model results, an 89-percent reduction in the current fecal coliform load delivered from the watershed to Accotink Creek would result in compliance with the designated water-quality goals and associated TMDL.

Streamflow characteristics of small tributaries of Rock Creek, Milk River basin, Montana, base period water years 1983-87

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1990-01-01

Five streamflow-gaging stations were installed in the Rock Creek basin north of the Milk River near Hinsdale, Montana. Streamflow was monitored at these stations and at an existing gaging station upstream on Rock Creek from May 1983 through September 1987. The data collected were used to describe the flow characteristics of four small tributary streams. Annual mean streamflow ranges from 2.8 to 57 cu ft/sec in the mainstem and from 0 to 0.60 cu ft/sec in the tributaries. Monthly mean streamflow ranged from 0 to 528 cu ft/sec in Rock Creek and from zero to 5.3 cu ft/sec in the four tributaries. The six gaged sites show similar patterns of daily mean streamflow during periods of large runoff, but substantial individual variations during periods of lesser runoff. During periods of lesser runoff , the small tributaries may have small daily mean streamflows. At other times, daily mean streamflow at the two mainstem sites decreased downstream. Daily mean streamflow in the tributaries appears to be closely related to daily mean streamflow in the mainstem only during periods of substantial area-wide runoff. Thus, streamflow in the tributaries resulting from local storms or local snowmelt may not contribute to streamflow in the mainstem. (USGS)

The influence of watershed characteristics on spatial patterns of trends in annual scale streamflow variability in the continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.; Vose, James M.

2016-09-01

As human activity and climate variability alter the movement of water through the environment the need to better understand hydrologic cycle responses to these changes has grown. A reasonable starting point for gaining such insight is studying changes in streamflow given the importance of streamflow as a source of renewable freshwater. Using a wavelet assisted method we analyzed trends in the magnitude of annual scale streamflow variability from 967 watersheds in the continental U.S. (CONUS) over a 70 year period (1940-2009). Decreased annual variability was the dominant pattern at the CONUS scale. Ecoregion scale results agreed with the CONUS pattern with the exception of two ecoregions closely divided between increases and decreases and one where increases dominated. A comparison of trends in reference and non-reference watersheds indicated that trend magnitudes in non-reference watersheds were significantly larger than those in reference watersheds. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were used to study the relationship between watershed characteristics and the magnitude of trends in streamflow. At the CONUS scale, the balance between precipitation and evaporative demand, and measures of geographic location were of high relative importance. Relationships between the magnitude of trends and watershed characteristics at the ecoregion scale exhibited differences from the CONUS results and substantial variability was observed among ecoregions. Additionally, the methodology used here has the potential to serve as a robust framework for top-down, data driven analyses of the relationships between changes in the hydrologic cycle and the spatial context within which those changes occur.

Hydrology and trout populations of cold-water rivers of Michigan and Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hendrickson, G.E.; Knutilla, R.L.

1974-01-01

Statistical multiple-regression analyses showed significant relationships between trout populations and hydrologic parameters. Parameters showing the higher levels of significance were temperature, hardness of water, percentage of gravel bottom, percentage of bottom vegetation, variability of streamflow, and discharge per unit drainage area. Trout populations increase with lower levels of annual maximum water temperatures, with increase in water hardness, and with increase in percentage of gravel and bottom vegetation. Trout populations also increase with decrease in variability of streamflow, and with increase in discharge per unit drainage area. Most hydrologic parameters were significant when evaluated collectively, but no parameter, by itself, showed a high degree of correlation with trout populations in regression analyses that included all the streams sampled. Regression analyses of stream segments that were restricted to certain limits of hardness, temperature, or percentage of gravel bottom showed improvements in correlation. Analyses of trout populations, in pounds per acre and pounds per mile and hydrologic parameters resulted in regression equations from which trout populations could be estimated with standard errors of 89 and 84 per cent, respectively.

Total Phosphorus Loads for Selected Tributaries to Sebago Lake, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2001-01-01

The streamflow and water-quality datacollection networks of the Portland Water District (PWD) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as of February 2000 were analyzed in terms of their applicability for estimating total phosphorus loads for selected tributaries to Sebago Lake in southern Maine. The long-term unit-area mean annual flows for the Songo River and for small, ungaged tributaries are similar to the long-term unit-area mean annual flows for the Crooked River and other gaged tributaries to Sebago Lake, based on a regression equation that estimates mean annual streamflows in Maine. Unit-area peak streamflows of Sebago Lake tributaries can be quite different, based on a regression equation that estimates peak streamflows for Maine. Crooked River had a statistically significant positive relation (Kendall's Tau test, p=0.0004) between streamflow and total phosphorus concentration. Panther Run had a statistically significant negative relation (p=0.0015). Significant positive relations may indicate contributions from nonpoint sources or sediment resuspension, whereas significant negative relations may indicate dilution of point sources. Total phosphorus concentrations were significantly larger in the Crooked River than in the Songo River (Wilcoxon rank-sum test, p<0.0001). Evidence was insufficient, however, to indicate that phosphorus concentrations from medium-sized drainage basins, at a significance level of 0.05, were different from each other or that concentrations in small-sized drainage basins were different from each other (Kruskal-Wallis test, p= 0.0980, 0.1265). All large- and medium-sized drainage basins were sampled for total phosphorus approximately monthly. Although not all small drainage basins were sampled, they may be well represented by the small drainage basins that were sampled. If the tributaries gaged by PWD had adequate streamflow data, the current PWD tributary monitoring program would probably produce total phosphorus loading data that would represent all gaged and ungaged tributaries to Sebago Lake. Outside the PWD tributary-monitoring program, the largest ungaged tributary to Sebago Lake contains 1.5 percent of the area draining to the lake. In the absence of unique point or nonpoint sources of phosphorus, ungaged tributaries are unlikely to have total phosphorus concentrations that differ significantly from those in the small tributaries that have concentration data. The regression method, also known as the rating-curve method, was used to estimate the annual total phosphorus load for Crooked River, Northwest River, and Rich Mill Pond Outlet for water years 1996-98. The MOVE.1 method was used to estimate daily streamflows for the regression method at Northwest River and Rich Mill Pond Outlet, where streamflows were not continuously monitored. An averaging method also was used to compute annual loads at the three sites. The difference between the regression estimate and the averaging estimate for each of the three tributaries was consistent with what was expected from previous studies.

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Gao, Huilin; Rastogi, Deeksha; Gangrade, Sudershan

2018-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. In this study, we evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 138 headwater subbasins located upstream of reservoirs across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. Four commonly used indices, including mean annual flow, annual center timing, 100-year daily high streamflow, and 10-year 7-day average low streamflow were used for evaluation. The results projected an increase in the high streamflow by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States (US) and a decrease in the low streamflow by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western US. In the eastern US, frequencies of both high and low streamflow were projected to increase in the majority of subbasins upstream of both hydropower and flood control reservoirs. Increased frequencies of both high and low streamflow events can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. This study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

Searching for signposts: Adaptive planning thresholds in long-term water supply projections for the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, B.; Herman, J. D.

2017-12-01

Long-term water supply planning is challenged by highly uncertain streamflow projections across climate models and emissions scenarios. Recent studies have devised infrastructure and policy responses that can withstand or adapt to an ensemble of scenarios, particularly those outside the envelope of historical variability. An important aspect of this process is whether the proposed thresholds for adaptation (i.e., observations that trigger a response) truly represent a trend toward future change. Here we propose an approach to connect observations of annual mean streamflow with long-term projections by filtering GCM-based streamflow ensembles. Visualizations are developed to investigate whether observed changes in mean annual streamflow can be linked to projected changes in end-of-century mean and variance relative to the full ensemble. A key focus is identifying thresholds that point to significant long-term changes in the distribution of streamflow (+/- 20% or greater) as early as possible. The analysis is performed on 87 sites in the Western United States, using streamflow ensembles through 2100 from a recent study by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Results focus on three primary questions: (1) how many years of observed data are needed to identify the most extreme scenarios, and by what year can they be identified? (2) are these features different between sites? and (3) using this analysis, do observed flows to date at each site point to significant long-term changes? This study addresses the challenge of severe uncertainty in long-term streamflow projections by identifying key thresholds that can be observed to support water supply planning.

Streamflow record extension for selected streams in the Susitna River Basin, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curran, Janet H.

2012-01-01

Daily streamflow records for water years 1950–2010 in the Susitna River Basin range in length from 4 to 57 years, and many are distributed within that period in a way that might not adequately represent long-term streamflow conditions. Streamflow in the basin is affected by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a multi-decadal climate pattern that shifted from a cool phase to a warm phase in 1976. Records for many streamgages in the basin fell mostly within one phase of the PDO, such that monthly and annual statistics from observed records might not reflect streamflow conditions over a longer period. Correlations between daily discharge values sufficed for extending streamflow records at 11 of the 14 streamgages in the basin on the basis of relatively long-term records for one or more of the streamgages within the basin, or one outside the basin, that were defined as index stations. Streamflow at the index stations was hydrologically responsive to glacier melt and snowmelt, and correlated well with flow from similar high-elevation, glaciated basins, but flow in low-elevation basins without glaciers could not be correlated to flow at any of the index stations. Kendall-Theil Robust Line multi-segment regression equations developed for one or more index stations were used to extend daily discharge values to the full 61-year period for all 11 streamgages. Monthly and annual statistics prepared for the extended records show shifts in timing of breakup and freeze-up and magnitude of snowmelt peaks largely predicted by the PDO phase.

Winter streamflow analysis in frozen, alpine catchments to quantify groundwater contribution and properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoelzle, Michael; Weiler, Markus

2016-04-01

Alpine catchments are often considered as quickly responding systems where streamflow contributions from subsurface storages (groundwater) are mostly negligible due to the steep topography, low permeable bedrock and the absence of well-developed soils. Many studies in high altitude catchments have hence focused on water stored in snowpack and glaciers or on rainfall-runoff processes as the dominant streamflow contributions. Interestingly less effort has been devoted to winter streamflow analysis when melt- or rainfall-driven contributions are switched off due to the frozen state of the catchment. Considering projected changes in the alpine cryosphere (e.g. snow, glacier, permafrost) quantification of groundwater storage and contribution to streamflow is crucial to assess the social and ecological implications for downstream areas (e.g. water temperature, drought propagation). In this study we hypothesize that groundwater is the main streamflow contribution during winter and thus being responsible for the perennial regime of many alpine catchments. The hypothesis is investigated with well-known methods based on recession and breakpoint analysis of the streamflow regimes and temperature data to determine frozen periods. Analyzing nine catchments in Switzerland with mean elevation between 1000 and 2400 m asl, we found that above a mean elevation of 1800 m asl winter recessions are sufficient long and persistent enough to quantify groundwater contribution to streamflow and to characterize the properties of subsurface storage. The results show that groundwater in alpine catchment is the dominant streamflow contribution for nearly half a year and accountable for several hundred millimeter of annual streamflow. In sub-alpine catchments, driven by a mix of snowmelt and rainfall, a clear quantification of groundwater contributions is rather challenging due to discontinuous frozen periods in winter. We found that the inter-annual variability of different streamflow contributions is helpful to assess the water sustainability of alpine catchments functioning as water towers for downstream water basins. We outline how well-known hydrograph and recession analyses in alpine catchments can help to explore the role of catchment storage and to advance our understanding of (ground-)water management in alpine environments.

Characterization of suspended solids and total phosphorus loadings from small watersheds in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Danz, Mari E.; Corsi, Steven R.; Graczyk, David J.; Bannerman, Roger T.

2010-01-01

Knowledge of the daily, monthly, and yearly distribution of contaminant loadings and streamflow can be critical for the successful implementation and evaluation of water-quality management practices. Loading data for solids (suspended sediment and total suspended solids) and total phosphorus and streamflow data for 23 watersheds were summarized for four ecoregions of Wisconsin: the Driftless Area Ecoregion, the Northern Lakes and Forests Ecoregion, the North Central Hardwoods Ecoregion, and the Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains Ecoregion. The Northern Lakes and Forests and the North Central Hardwoods Ecoregions were combined into one region for analysis due to a lack of sufficient data in each region. Urban watersheds, all located in the Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains, were analyzed separately from rural watersheds as the Rural Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region and the Urban Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region. Results provide information on the distribution of loadings and streamflow between base flow and stormflow, the timing of loadings and streamflow throughout the year, and information regarding the number of days in which the majority of the annual loading is transported. The average contribution to annual solids loading from stormflow periods for the Driftless Area Ecoregion was 84 percent, the Northern Lakes and Forests/North Central Hardwoods region was 71 percent, the Rural Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region was 70 percent, and the Urban Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region was 90 percent. The average contributions to annual total phosphorus loading from stormflow periods were 72, 49, 61, and 76 percent for each of the respective regions. The average contributions to annual streamflow from stormflow periods are 20, 23, 31, and 50 percent for each of the respective regions. In all regions, the most substantial loading contributions for solids were in the late winter (February through March), spring (April through May), and early summer (June through July), with fall (October through November) and early winter (December through January) contributing the smallest loadings. The Northern Lakes and Forests/North Central Hardwoods region had some substantial loading in September. There was a similar pattern for total phosphorus loading in all regions, with the pattern somewhat less pronounced in urban watersheds. As with the loading results, average monthly streamflow values were greatest in late winter, spring, and early summer, with the lowest values typically in fall and early winter. Loading contributions were greater from stormflow than from base flow in all instances, except total phosphorus in the Northern Lakes and Forests/North Central Hardwoods region, which had equal or greater base-flow contribution for several months. Base flow constituted a greater percentage of the total streamflow than stormflow in all rural watersheds for all regions. Only a few storms each year dominated the annual loading totals for solids and total phosphorus. When daily loading values were ranked for the year, all regions reached 50 percent of the annual solids loading in the 5 highest loading days and nearly 50 percent of the annual total phosphorus loading in the 14 highest loading days.

Water resources data for California, water year 1995. Volume 1. Southern Great Basin from Mexican border to Mono Lake basin, and Pacific slope basins from Tijuana River to Santa Maria River. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1994-30 SeptembeR 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agajanian, J.A.; Rockwell, G.L.; Hayes, P.D.

1996-04-01

Volume 1 contains (1) discharge records for 141 streamflow-gaging stations, 6 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations; (2) stage and contents records for 20 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water quality records for 21 streamflow-gaging stations and 3 partial-record stations; and (4) precipitation records for 1 station.

Use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating hydrology and water quality in the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, 2000--10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hutchinson, Kasey J.; Christiansen, Daniel E.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and nitrate loads within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa. The goal was to assess the ability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to estimate streamflow and nitrate loads in gaged and ungaged basins in Iowa. The Cedar River Basin model uses measured streamflow data from 12 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations for hydrology calibration. The U.S. Geological Survey software program, Load Estimator, was used to estimate annual and monthly nitrate loads based on measured nitrate concentrations and streamflow data from three Iowa Department of Natural Resources Storage and Retrieval/Water Quality Exchange stations, located throughout the basin, for nitrate load calibration. The hydrology of the model was calibrated for the period of January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and validated for the period of January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010. Simulated daily, monthly, and annual streamflow resulted in Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency (ENS) values ranging from 0.44 to 0.83, 0.72 to 0.93, and 0.56 to 0.97, respectively, and coefficient of determination (R2) values ranging from 0.55 to 0.87, 0.74 to 0.94, and 0.65 to 0.99, respectively, for the calibration period. The percent bias ranged from -19 to 10, -16 to 10, and -19 to 10 for daily, monthly, and annual simulation, respectively. The validation period resulted in daily, monthly, and annual ENS values ranging from 0.49 to 0.77, 0.69 to 0.91, and -0.22 to 0.95, respectively; R2 values ranging from 0.59 to 0.84, 0.74 to 0.92, and 0.36 to 0.92, respectively; and percent bias ranging from -16 for all time steps to percent bias of 14, 15, and 15, respectively. The nitrate calibration was based on a small subset of the locations used in the hydrology calibration with limited measured data. Model performance ranges from unsatisfactory to very good for the calibration period (January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004). Results for the validation period (January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010) indicate a need for an increase of measured data as well as more refined documented management practices at a higher resolution. Simulated nitrate loads resulted in monthly and annual ENS values ranging from 0.28 to 0.82 and 0.61 to 0.86, respectively, and monthly and annual R2 values ranging from 0.65 to 0.81 and 0.65 to 0.88, respectively, for the calibration period. The monthly and annual calibration percent bias ranged from 4 to 7 and 5 to 7, respectively. The validation period resulted in all but two ENS values less than zero. Monthly and annual validation R2 values ranged from 0.5 to 0.67 and 0.25 to 0.48, respectively. Monthly and annual validation percent bias ranged from 46 to 68 for both time steps. A daily calibration and validation for nitrate loads was not performed because of the poor monthly and annual results; measured daily nitrate data are available for intervals of time in 2009 and 2010 during which a successful monthly and annual calibration could not be achieved. The Cedar River Basin is densely gaged relative to other basins in Iowa; therefore, an alternative hydrology scenario was created to assess the predictive capabilities of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool using fewer locations of measured data for model hydrology calibration. Although the ability of the model to reproduce measured values improves with the number of calibration locations, results indicate that the Soil and Water Assessment Tool can be used to adequately estimate streamflow in less densely gaged basins throughout the State, especially at the monthly time step. However, results also indicate that caution should be used when calibrating a subbasin that consists of physically distinct regions based on only one streamflow-gaging station.

Suspended-sediment loads from major tributaries to the Missouri River between Garrison Dam and Lake Oahe, North Dakota, 1954-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Macek-Rowland, Kathleen M.

2000-01-01

Annual suspended-sediment loads for water years 1954 through 1998 were estimated for the major tributaries in the Missouri River Basin between Garrison Dam and Lake Oahe in North Dakota and for the Missouri River at Garrison Dam and the Missouri River at Bismarck, N. Dak.  The major tributaries are the Knife River, Turtle Creek, Painted Woods Creek, Square Butte Creek, Burnt Creek, Heart River, and Apple Creek.  Sediment and streamflow data used to estimate the suspended-sediment loads were from selected U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations located within each basin.  Some of the stations had no sediment data available and limited continuous streamflow data for water years 1954 through 1998.  Therefore, data from nearby streamflow-gaging stations were assumed for the calculations. The Heart River contributed the largest amount of suspended sediment to the Missouri River for 1954-98.  Annual suspended-sediment loads in the Heart River near Mandan ranged from less than 1 to 40 percent of the annual suspended-sediment load in the Missouri River. The Knife River contributed the second largest amount of suspended sediment to the Missouri River.  Annual suspended-sediment loads in the Knife River at Hazen ranged from less than 1 to 19 percent of the annual suspended-sediment load in the Missouri River.  Apple Creek, Turtle Creek, Painted Woods Creek, Square Butte Creek, and Burnt Creek all contributed 2 percent or less of the annual suspended-sediment load in the Missouri River.  The Knife River and the Heart River also had the largest average suspended-sediment yields for the seven tributaries.  The yield for the Knife River was 91.1 tons per square mile, and the yield for the Heart River was 133 tons per square mile.  The remaining five tributaries had yields of less than 24 tons per square mile based on total drainage area. 

Response of non-point source pollutant loads to climate change in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment.

PubMed

Zhang, Lei; Lu, Wenxi; An, Yonglei; Li, Di; Gong, Lei

2012-01-01

The impacts of climate change on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment are predicted by combining a general circulation model (HadCM3) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A statistical downscaling model was used to generate future local scenarios of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. Then, the downscaled meteorological variables were used as input to the SWAT hydrological model calibrated and validated with observations, and the corresponding changes of future streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment were simulated and analyzed. Results show that daily temperature increases in three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) relative to a baseline of 1961-1990, and the rate of increase is 0.63°C per decade. Annual precipitation also shows an apparent increase of 11 mm per decade. The calibration and validation results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate well the streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads, with a coefficient of determination of 0.7 and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of about 0.7 for both the calibration and validation periods. The future climate change has a significant impact on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads. The annual streamflow shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2099, with an increase rate of 1.1 m(3) s(-1) per decade, and a significant upward trend in summer, with an increase rate of 1.32 m(3) s(-1) per decade. The increase in summer contributes the most to the increase of annual load compared with other seasons. The annual NH (4) (+) -N load into Shitoukoumen reservoir shows a significant downward trend with a decrease rate of 40.6 t per decade. The annual TP load shows an insignificant increasing trend, and its change rate is 3.77 t per decade. The results of this analysis provide a scientific basis for effective support of decision makers and strategies of adaptation to climate change.

Transit losses and traveltimes for water-supply releases Marion Lake during drought conditions, Cottonwood River, east-central Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jordan, P.R.; Hart, R.J.

1985-01-01

A streamflow routing model was used to calculate the transit losses and traveltimes. Channel and aquifer characteristics, and the model control parameters, were estimated from available data and then verified to the extent possible by comparing model simulated streamflow to observed streamflow at streamflow gaging stations. Transit losses and traveltimes for varying reservoir release rates and durations then were simulated for two different antecedent streamflow (drought) conditions. For the severe-drought antecedent-streamflow condition, it was assumed that only the downstream water use requirement would be released from the reservoir. For a less severe drought (LSD) antecedent streamflow condition, it was assumed than any releases from Marion Lake for water supply use downstream, would be in addition to a nominal dry weather release of 5 cu ft/sec. Water supply release rates of 10 and 25 cu ft/sec for the severe drought condition and 5, 10, and 25 cu ft/sec for the less severe drought condition were simulated for periods of 28 and 183 days commencing on July 1. Transit losses for the severe drought condition for all reservoir release rates and durations ranged from 12% to 78% of the maximum downstream flow rate and from 27% to 91% of the total volume of reservoir storage released. For the LSD condition, transit losses ranged from 7% to 29% of the maximum downstream flow rate and from 10% to 48% of the total volume of release. The 183-day releases had larger total transit losses, but losses on a percentage basis were less than the losses for the 28-day release period for both antecedent streamflow conditions. Traveltimes to full response (80% of the maximum downstream flow rate), however, showed considerable variation. For the release of 5 cu ft/sec during LSD conditions, base flow exceeded 80% of the maximum flow rate near the confluence; the traveltime to full response was undefined for those simulations. For the releases of 10 and 25 cu ft/sec during the same drought condition, traveltimes to full response ranged from 4.4 to 6.5 days. For releases of 10 and 25 cu ft/sec during severe drought conditions, traveltimes to full response near the confluence with the Neosho River ranged from 8.3 to 93 days. (Lantz-PTT)

On the suitability of the copula types for the joint modelling of flood peaks and volumes along the Danube River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohnová, Silvia; Papaioannou, George; Bacigál, Tomáš; Szolgay, Ján; Hlavčová, Kamila; Loukas, Athanasios; Výleta, Roman

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is often performed as a univariate analysis of flood peaks using a suitable theoretical probability distribution of the annual maximum flood peaks or peak over threshold values. However, also other flood attributes, such as flood volume and duration, are often necessary for the design of hydrotechnical structures and projects. In this study, the suitability of various copula families for a bivariate analysis of peak discharges and flood volumes has been tested on the streamflow data from gauging stations along the whole Danube River. Kendall's rank correlation coefficient (tau) quantifies the dependence between flood peak discharge and flood volume settings. The methodology is tested on two different data samples: 1) annual maximum flood (AMF) peaks with corresponding flood volumes, which is a typical choice for engineering studies and 2). annual maximum flood (AMF) peaks combined with annual maximum flow volumes of fixed durations at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 60 days, which can be regarded as a regime analysis of the dependence between the extremes of both variables in a given year. The bivariate modelling of the peak discharge - flood volume couples is achieved with the use of the the following copulas: Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Clayton, Frank, Joe, Gumbel, HuslerReiss, Galambos, Tawn, Normal, Plackett and FGM, respectively. Scatterplots of the observed and simulated peak discharge - flood volume pairs and goodness-of-fit tests have been used to assess the overall applicability of the copulas as well as observing any changes in suitable models along the Danube River. The results indicate that, almost all of the considered Archimedean class copulas (e.g. Frank, Clayton and Ali-Mikhail-Haq) perform better than the other copula families selected for this study, and that for the second data samples mostly the upper-tail-flat copulas were suitable.

Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Widespread decreases in annualized streamflow have been observed across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years, however in some watersheds, observed streamflow has increased. To deconvolve the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long-term ...

Shallow and Deep Groundwater Contributions to Ephemeral Streamflow Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmer, M. A.; McGlynn, B. L.

2016-12-01

Our understanding of streamflow generation processes in low relief, humid landscapes is limited. To address this, we utilized an ephemeral-to-intermittent drainage network in the Piedmont region of the United States to gain new understanding about the drivers of ephemeral streamflow generation, stream-groundwater interactions, and longitudinal expansion and contraction of the stream network. We used hydrometric and chemical data collected within zero through second order catchments to characterize streamflow and overland, shallow soil, and deep subsurface flow across landscape positions. Results showed bi-directionality in stream-groundwater gradients that were dependent on catchment storage state. This led to annual groundwater recharge magnitudes that were similar to annual streamflow. Perched shallow and deep water table contributions shifted dominance with changes in catchment storage state, producing distinct stream hydrograph recession constants. Active channel length versus runoff followed a consistent relationship independent of storage state, but exhibited varying discharge-solute hysteresis directions. Together, our results suggest that temporary streams can act as both important groundwater recharge and discharge locations across the landscape, especially in this region where ephemeral drainage densities are among the highest recorded. Our results also highlight that the internal catchment dynamics that generate temporary streams play an important role in dictating biogeochemical fluxes at the landscape scale.

Responses of streamflow and sediment load to climate change and human activity in the Upper Yellow River, China: a case of the Ten Great Gullies Basin.

PubMed

Liu, Tong; Huang, He Qing; Shao, Mingan; Yao, Wenyi; Gu, Jing; Yu, Guoan

2015-01-01

Soil erosion and land desertification are the most serious environmental problems globally. This study investigated the changes in streamflow and sediment load from 1964 to 2012 in the Ten Great Gullies area of the Upper Yellow River. Tests for gradual trends (Mann-Kendall test) and abrupt changes (Pettitt test) identify that significant declines in streamflow and sediment load occurred in 1997-1998 in two typical gullies. A comparison of climatic variability before and after the change points shows no statistically significant trends in annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Human activities have been very active in the region and during 1990-2010, 146.01 and 197.62 km2 of land were converted, respectively, to forests and grassland, with corresponding increases of 87.56 and 77.05%. In addition, a large number of check dams have been built up in the upper reaches of the ten gullies. These measures were likely responsible for the significant decline in the annual streamflow and sediment load over the last 49 years.

Regression Equations for Monthly and Annual Mean and Selected Percentile Streamflows for Ungaged Rivers in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.

2015-12-03

The largest average errors of prediction are associated with regression equations for the lowest streamflows derived for months during which the lowest streamflows of the year occur (such as the 5 and 1 monthly percentiles for August and September). The regression equations have been derived on the basis of streamflow and basin characteristics data for unregulated, rural drainage basins without substantial streamflow or drainage modifications (for example, diversions and (or) regulation by dams or reservoirs, tile drainage, irrigation, channelization, and impervious paved surfaces), therefore using the equations for regulated or urbanized basins with substantial streamflow or drainage modifications will yield results of unknown error. Input basin characteristics derived using techniques or datasets other than those documented in this report or using values outside the ranges used to develop these regression equations also will yield results of unknown error.

USGS Streamgages Linked to the Medium Resolution NHD

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, David W.; Rea, Alan; Wolock, David M.

2006-01-01

The locations of approximately 23,000 current and historical U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the United States and Puerto Rico (with the exception of Alaska) have been snapped to the medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset (NHD). The NHD contains geospatial information about mapped surface-water features, such as streams, lakes, and reservoirs, etc., creating a hydrologic network that can be used to determine what is upstream or downstream from a point of interest on the NHD network. An automated snapping process made the initial determination of the NHD location of each streamgage. These initial NHD locations were comprehensively reviewed by local USGS personnel to ensure that streamgages were snapped to the correct NHD reaches. About 75 percent of the streamgages snapped to the appropriate NHD reach location initially and 25 percent required adjustment and relocation. This process resulted in approximately 23,000 gages being successfully snapped to the NHD. This dataset contains the latitude and longitude coordinates of the point on the NHD to which the streamgage is snapped and the location of the gage house for each streamgage. A process known as indexing may be used to create reference points (event tables) to the NHD reaches, expressed as a reach code and measure (distance along the reach). Indexing is dependent on the version of NHD to which the indexing is referenced. These data are well suited for use in indexing because nearly all the streamgage NHD locations have been reviewed and adjusted if necessary, to ensure they will index to the appropriate NHD reach. Flow characteristics were computed from the daily streamflow data recorded at each streamgage for the period of record. The flow characteristics associated with each streamgage include: *First date (year, month, day) of streamflow data *Last date (year, month, day) of streamflow data *Number of days of streamflow data *Number of days of non-zero streamflow data *Minimum and maximum daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) *Percentiles (1, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, 75, 80, 90, 95, 99) of daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) *Average and standard deviation of daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) *Mean annual base-flow index (BFI) computed for the period of record (fraction, ranging from 0 to 1) *Year-to-year standard deviation of the annual base-flow index computed for the period of record (fraction) *Number of years of data used to compute the base-flow index (years) The streamflow data used to compute flow characteristics were copied from the NWIS-Web historical daily discharge archive (nadww01.er.usgs.gov:/www/htdocs/nwisweb/data/discharge) on June 15, 2005.

Assessing the direct effects of streamflow on recreation: a literature review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Thomas C.; Taylor, Jonathan G.; Shelby, Bo

1991-01-01

A variety of methods have been used to learn about the relation between streamflow and recreation quality. Regardless of method, nearly all studies found a similar nonlinear relation of recreation to flow, with quality increasing with flow to a point, and then decreasing for further increases in flow. Points of minimum, optimum, and maximum flow differ across rivers and activities. Knowledge of the effects of streamflow on recreation, for the variety of relevant activities and skill levels, is an important ingredient in the determination of wise streamflow policies.

Techniques for estimating selected streamflow characteristics of rural unregulated streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Whitehead, Matthew T.

2002-01-01

This report provides equations for estimating mean annual streamflow, mean monthly streamflows, harmonic mean streamflow, and streamflow quartiles (the 25th-, 50th-, and 75th-percentile streamflows) as a function of selected basin characteristics for rural, unregulated streams in Ohio. The equations were developed from streamflow statistics and basin-characteristics data for as many as 219 active or discontinued streamflow-gaging stations on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio with 10 or more years of homogenous daily streamflow record. Streamflow statistics and basin-characteristics data for the 219 stations are presented in this report. Simple equations (based on drainage area only) and best-fit equations (based on drainage area and at least two other basin characteristics) were developed by means of ordinary least-squares regression techniques. Application of the best-fit equations generally involves quantification of basin characteristics that require or are facilitated by use of a geographic information system. In contrast, the simple equations can be used with information that can be obtained without use of a geographic information system; however, the simple equations have larger prediction errors than the best-fit equations and exhibit geographic biases for most streamflow statistics. The best-fit equations should be used instead of the simple equations whenever possible.

Quantifying the relative contribution of climate and human impacts on streamflow at seasonal scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, Z.; Zhang, L.; Li, Y.; Zhang, C.

2017-12-01

Both climate change and human activities have induced changes to hydrology. The quantification of their impacts on streamflow is a challenge, especially at the seasonal scale due to seasonality of climate and human impacts, i.e., water use for irrigation and water storage and release due to reservoir operation. In this study, the decomposition method based on the Budyko hypothesis is extended to the seasonal scale and is used to quantify the climate and human impacts on annual and seasonal streamflow changes. The results are further compared and verified with those simulated by the hydrological method of abcd model. Data are split into two periods (1953-1974 and 1975-2005) to quantify the change. Three seasons, including wet, dry and irrigation seasons are defined by introducing the monthly aridity index. In general, results showed a satisfactory agreement between the Budyko decomposition method and abcd model. Both climate change and human activities were found to induce a decrease in streamflow at the annual scale, with 67% of the change contributed by human activities. At the seasonal scale, the human-induced contribution to the reduced stream flow was 64% and 73% for dry and wet seasons, respectively; whereas in the irrigation season, the impact of human activities on reducing the streamflow was more pronounced (180%) since the climate contributes to increased streamflow. In addition, the quantification results were analyzed for each month in the wet season to reveal the effects of intense precipitation and reservoir operation rules during flood season.

Surface waters of the Washita River basin in Oklahoma--magnitude, distribution, and quality of streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laine, L.L.

1958-01-01

Analysis of streamflow data shows that water supply in the Washita River basin is variable, ranging from substantial amounts and almost continuous flow in the Washita River in the lower end of the basin to somewhat limited and intermittent flow in the upper part of the basin. The total yield of the basin averages 1,557,000 acre-ft per year, of which somewhat less than 1.3 percent is contributed by headwater areas in Texas. The surface waters are generally of acceptable quality for drinking purposes, excellent for irrigation uses, and suitable for many industrial purposes. In Oklahoma the high amounts of runoff tend to occur in the spring months. High runoff may occur during any month in the year but, in general, the available streamflow is relatively small in the summer. Most tributary streams have little sustained base flow and many are dry at times each year. Because of the high variability in flow, development of storage will be necessary to attain maximum utilization of the available water supplies. This report gives the average discharge at most gaging stations and at several additional sites for the 16-year period October 1938 to September 1954, used as a standard period in this report. Data are also shown on water available at several gaging stations and other sites for a given percentage of the time during the 16-year standard period. For several gaging stations data are given on minimum discharges for periods of various length during the most critical periods of record. For all gaging stations a summary of available basic data on streamflow is presented on a monthly annual basis. For other sites at which discharge measurements have been made, a tabulation of observed discharge is given. (available as photostat copy only)

Effects of wastewater effluent discharge and treatment facility upgrades on environmental and biological conditions of the upper Blue River, Johnson County, Kansas and Jackson County, Missouri, January 2003 through March 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jennifer L.; Stone, Mandy L.; Rasmussen, Teresa J.; Poulton, Barry C.

2010-01-01

The Johnson County Blue River Main Wastewater Treatment Facility discharges into the upper Blue River near the border between Johnson County, Kansas and Jackson County, Missouri. During 2005 through 2007 the wastewater treatment facility underwent upgrades to increase capacity and include biological nutrient removal. The effects of wastewater effluent on environmental and biological conditions of the upper Blue River were assessed by comparing an upstream site to two sites located downstream from the wastewater treatment facility. Environmental conditions were evaluated using previously and newly collected discrete and continuous data, and were compared with an assessment of biological community composition and ecosystem function along the upstream-downstream gradient. This evaluation is useful for understanding the potential effects of wastewater effluent on water quality, biological community structure, and ecosystem function. In addition, this information can be used to help achieve National Pollution Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) wastewater effluent permit requirements after additional studies are conducted. The effects of wastewater effluent on the water-quality conditions of the upper Blue River were most evident during below-normal and normal streamflows (about 75 percent of the time), when wastewater effluent contributed more than 20 percent to total streamflow. The largest difference in water-quality conditions between the upstream and downstream sites was in nutrient concentrations. Total and inorganic nutrient concentrations at the downstream sites during below-normal and normal streamflows were 4 to 15 times larger than at the upstream site, even after upgrades to the wastewater treatment facility were completed. However, total nitrogen concentrations decreased in wastewater effluent and at the downstream site following wastewater treatment facility upgrades. Similar decreases in total phosphorus were not observed, likely because the biological phosphorus removal process was not optimized until after the study was completed. Total nitrogen and phosphorus from the wastewater treatment facility contributed a relatively small percentage (14 to 15 percent) to the annual nutrient load in the upper Blue River, but contributed substantially (as much as 75 percent) to monthly loads during seasonal low-flows in winter and summer. During 2007 and 2008, annual discharge from the wastewater treatment facility was about one-half maximum capacity, and estimated potential maximum annual loads were 1.6 to 2.4 times greater than annual loads before capacity upgrades. Even when target nutrient concentrations are met, annual nutrient loads will increase when the wastewater treatment facility is operated at full capacity. Regardless of changes in annual nutrient loads, the reduction of nutrient concentrations in the Blue River Main wastewater effluent will help prevent further degradation of the upper Blue River. The Blue River Main Wastewater Treatment Facility wastewater effluent caused changes in concentrations of several water-quality constituents that may affect biological community structure and function including larger concentrations of bioavailable nutrients (nitrate and orthophosphorus) and smaller turbidities. Streambed-sediment conditions were similar along the upstream-downstream gradient and measured constituents did not exceed probable effect concentrations. Habitat conditions declined along the upstream-downstream gradient, largely because of decreased canopy cover and riparian buffer width and increased riffle-substrate fouling. Algal biomass, primary production, and the abundance of nutrient-tolerant diatoms substantially increased downstream from the wastewater treatment facility. Likewise, the abundance of intolerant macroinvertebrate taxa and Kansas Department of Health and Environment aquatic-life-support scores, derived from macroinvertebrate data, significantly decreased downstream from the wastewater

Non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis using B-spline quantile regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasri, B.; Bouezmarni, T.; St-Hilaire, A.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2017-11-01

Hydrologic frequency analysis is commonly used by engineers and hydrologists to provide the basic information on planning, design and management of hydraulic and water resources systems under the assumption of stationarity. However, with increasing evidence of climate change, it is possible that the assumption of stationarity, which is prerequisite for traditional frequency analysis and hence, the results of conventional analysis would become questionable. In this study, we consider a framework for frequency analysis of extremes based on B-Spline quantile regression which allows to model data in the presence of non-stationarity and/or dependence on covariates with linear and non-linear dependence. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was used to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. A coefficient of determination and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for quantile regression are used in order to select the best model, i.e. for each quantile, we choose the degree and number of knots of the adequate B-spline quantile regression model. The method is applied to annual maximum and minimum streamflow records in Ontario, Canada. Climate indices are considered to describe the non-stationarity in the variable of interest and to estimate the quantiles in this case. The results show large differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents for an annual maximum and minimum discharge with high annual non-exceedance probabilities.

ModABa Model: Annual Flow Duration Curves Assessment in Ephemeral Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pumo, Dario; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

2013-04-01

A representation of the streamflow regime for a river basin is required for a variety of hydrological analyses and engineering applications, from the water resource allocation and utilization to the environmental flow management. The flow duration curve (FDC) represents a comprehensive signature of temporal runoff variability often used to synthesize catchment rainfall-runoff responses. Several models aimed to the theoretical reconstruction of the FDC have been recently developed under different approaches, and a relevant scientific knowledge specific to this topic has been already acquired. In this work, a new model for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in perennial and ephemeral catchments is introduced. The ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in intermittent BAsins) can be thought as a wide mosaic whose tesserae are frameworks, models or conceptual schemes separately developed in different recent studies. Such tesserae are harmoniously placed and interconnected, concurring together towards a unique final aim that is the reproduction of the FDC of daily streamflows in a river basin. Two separated periods within the year are firstly identified: a non-zero period, typically characterized by significant streamflows, and a dry period, that, in the cases of ephemeral basins, is the period typically characterized by absence of streamflow. The proportion of time the river is dry, providing an estimation of the probability of zero flow occurring, is empirically estimated. Then, an analysis concerning the non-zero period is performed, considering the streamflow disaggregated into a slow subsuperficial component and a fast superficial component. A recent analytical model is adopted to derive the non zero FDC relative to the subsuperficial component; this last is considered to be generated by the soil water excess over the field capacity in the permeable portion of the basin. The non zero FDC relative to the fast streamflow component is directly derived from the precipitation duration curve through a simple filter model. The fast component of streamflow is considered to be formed by two contributions that are the entire amount of rainfall falling onto the impervious portion of the basin and the excess of rainfall over a fixed threshold, defining heavy rain events, falling onto the permeable portion. The two obtained FDCs are then overlapped, providing a unique non-zero FDC relative to the total streamflow. Finally, once the probability that the river is dry and the non zero FDC are known, the annual FDC of the daily total streamflow is derived applying the theory of total probability. The model is calibrated on a small catchment with ephemeral streamflows using a long period of daily precipitation, temperature and streamflow measurements, and it is successively validated in the same basin using two different time periods. The high model performances obtained in both the validation periods, demonstrate how the model, once calibrated, is able to accurately reproduce the empirical FDC starting from easily derivable parameters arising from a basic ecohydrological knowledge of the basin and commonly available climatic data such as daily precipitation and temperatures. In this sense, the model reveals itself as a valid tool for streamflow predictions in ungauged basins.

Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada.

PubMed

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

2015-12-04

Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.

Understanding performance measures of reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, Thomas A.; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Zhou, Sen-Lin

2006-06-01

This paper examines 10 reservoir performance metrics including time and volume based reliability, several measures of resilience and vulnerability, drought risk index and sustainability. Both historical and stochastically generated streamflows are considered as inflows to a range of hypothetical storage on four rivers—Earn river in the United Kingdom, Hatchie river in the United States, Richmond river in Australia and the Vis river in South Africa. The monthly stochastic sequences were generated applying an autoregressive lag one model to Box-Cox transformed annual streamflows incorporating parameter uncertainty by the Stedinger-Taylor method and the annual flows disaggregated by the method of fragments.

Low Streamflow Forcasting using Minimum Relative Entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

2013-12-01

Minimum relative entropy spectral analysis is derived in this study, and applied to forecast streamflow time series. Proposed method extends the autocorrelation in the manner that the relative entropy of underlying process is minimized so that time series data can be forecasted. Different prior estimation, such as uniform, exponential and Gaussian assumption, is taken to estimate the spectral density depending on the autocorrelation structure. Seasonal and nonseasonal low streamflow series obtained from Colorado River (Texas) under draught condition is successfully forecasted using proposed method. Minimum relative entropy determines spectral of low streamflow series with higher resolution than conventional method. Forecasted streamflow is compared to the prediction using Burg's maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) and Configurational entropy. The advantage and disadvantage of each method in forecasting low streamflow is discussed.

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands

PubMed Central

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E.; Fox, Garey A.

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002–2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands. PMID:28792541

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands.

PubMed

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E; Fox, Garey A

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002-2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands.

Simulation of streamflow in small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Norris, J.M.

1989-01-01

Coal mining operations in northwestern Colorado commonly are located in areas that have minimal available water-resource information. Drainage-basin models can be a method for extending water-resource information to include periods for which there are no records or to transfer the information to areas that have no streamflow-gaging stations. To evaluate the magnitude and variability of the components of the water balance in the small drainage basins monitored, and to provide some method for transfer of hydrologic data, the U.S. Geological Survey 's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used for small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin to simulate daily mean streamflow using daily precipitation and air-temperature data. The study area was divided into three hydrologic regions, and in each of these regions, three drainage basins were monitored. Two of the drainage basins in each region were used to calibrate the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model was not calibrated for the third drainage basin in each region; instead, parameter values were transferred from the model that was calibrated for the two drainage basins. For all of the drainage basins except one, period of record used for calibration and verification included water years 1976-81. Simulated annual volumes of streamflow for drainage basins used in calibration compared well with observed values; individual hydrographs indicated timing differences between the observed and simulated daily mean streamflow. Observed and simulated annual average streamflows compared well for the periods of record, but values of simulated high and low streamflows were different than observed values. Similar results were obtained when calibrated model parameter values were transferred to drainage basins that were uncalibrated. (USGS)

Landscape structure and climate influences on hydrologic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nippgen, Fabian; McGlynn, Brian L.; Marshall, Lucy A.; Emanuel, Ryan E.

2011-12-01

Climate variability and catchment structure (topography, geology, vegetation) have a significant influence on the timing and quantity of water discharged from mountainous catchments. How these factors combine to influence runoff dynamics is poorly understood. In this study we linked differences in hydrologic response across catchments and across years to metrics of landscape structure and climate using a simple transfer function rainfall-runoff modeling approach. A transfer function represents the internal catchment properties that convert a measured input (rainfall/snowmelt) into an output (streamflow). We examined modeled mean response time, defined as the average time that it takes for a water input to leave the catchment outlet from the moment it reaches the ground surface. We combined 12 years of precipitation and streamflow data from seven catchments in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (Little Belt Mountains, southwestern Montana) with landscape analyses to quantify the first-order controls on mean response times. Differences between responses across the seven catchments were related to the spatial variability in catchment structure (e.g., slope, flowpath lengths, tree height). Annual variability was largely a function of maximum snow water equivalent. Catchment averaged runoff ratios exhibited strong correlations with mean response time while annually averaged runoff ratios were not related to climatic metrics. These results suggest that runoff ratios in snowmelt dominated systems are mainly controlled by topography and not by climatic variability. This approach provides a simple tool for assessing differences in hydrologic response across diverse watersheds and climate conditions.

Seven-Day Low Streamflows in the United States, 1940-2014

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This map shows percentage changes in the minimum annual rate of water carried by rivers and streams across the country, based on the long-term rate of change from 1940 to 2014. Minimum streamflow is based on the consecutive seven-day period with the lowest average flow during a given year. Blue triangles represent an increase in low stream flow volumes, and brown triangles represent a decrease. Streamflow data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey. For more information: www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators

Suspended-Sediment Budget for the North Santiam River Basin, Oregon, Water Years 2005-08

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bragg, Heather M.; Uhrich, Mark A.

2010-01-01

Significant Findings An analysis of sediment transport in the North Santiam River basin during water years 2005-08 indicated that: Two-thirds of sediment input to Detroit Lake originated in the upper North Santiam River subbasin. Two-thirds of the sediment transported past Geren Island originated in the Little North Santiam River subbasin. The highest annual suspended-sediment load at any of the monitoring stations was the result of a debris flow on November 6, 2006, on Mount Jefferson. About 86 percent of the total sediment input to Detroit Lake was trapped in the lake, whereas 14 percent was transported farther downstream. More than 80 percent of the sediment transport in the basin was in November, December, and January. The variance in the annual suspended-sediment loads was better explained by the magnitude of the annual peak streamflow than by the annual mean streamflow.

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in the Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1970-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2005-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is considering several alternatives to meet the future municipal, rural, and industrial water-supply needs in the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin, and an environmental impact statement is being prepared to evaluate the potential effects of the various alternatives on the water quality and aquatic health in the basin in relation to the historical variability of streamflow and constituent concentration. Therefore, a water-quality trend analysis was needed to determine the amount of natural water-quality variability that can be expected to occur in the basin, to determine if significant water-quality changes have occurred as a result of human activities, to explore potential causal mechanisms for water-quality changes, and to establish a baseline from which to monitor future water-quality trends. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, to analyze historical water-quality trends in two dissolved major ions, dissolved solids, three nutrients, and two dissolved trace metals for nine streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. Annual variability in streamflow in the Red River Basin was high during the trend-analysis period (1970-2001). The annual variability affects constituent concentrations in individual tributaries to the Red River and, in turn, affects constituent concentrations in the main stem of the Red River because of the relative streamflow contribution from the tributaries to the main stem. Therefore, an annual concentration anomaly, which is an estimate of the interannual variability in concentration that can be attributed to long-term variability in streamflow, was used to analyze annual streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. The concentration trend is an estimate of the long-term systematic changes in concentration that are unrelated to seasonal or long-term variability in streamflow. Concentrations that have both the seasonal and annual variability removed are called standardized concentrations. Numerous changes that could not be attributed to natural streamflow-related variability occurred in the standardized concentrations during the trend-analysis period. During various times from the late 1970's to the mid-1990's, significant increases occurred in standardized dissolved sulfate, dissolved chloride, and dissolved- solids concentrations for eight of the nine stations for which water-quality trends were analyzed. Significant increases also occurred from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's for standardized dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations for the main-stem stations. The increasing concentrations for the main-stem stations indicate the upward trends may have been caused by human activities along the main stem of the Red River. Significant trends for standardized total ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations occurred for most stations. The fitted trends for standardized total phosphorus concentrations for one tributary station increased from the late 1970's to the early 1980's and decreased from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's. Small but insignificant increases occurred for two main-stem stations. No trends were detected for standardized dissolved iron or dissolved manganese concentrations. However, the combination of extreme high-frequency variability, few data, and the number of censored values may have disguised the streamflow-related variability for iron. The time-series model used to detect historical concentration trends also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Various sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect both annual and seasonal trends during three 4-month seasons. A reasonable overall design for detecting trends for all stations and constituents consisted of eight samples per year, with monthly sampling from April to August and bimonthly sampling from October to February.

Quantifying Temperature Effects on Snow, Plant and Streamflow Dynamics in Headwater Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wainwright, H. M.; Sarah, T.; Siirila-Woodburn, E. R.; Newcomer, M. E.; Williams, K. H.; Hubbard, S. S.; Enquist, B. J.; Steltzer, H.; Carroll, R. W. H.

2017-12-01

Quantifying Temperature Effects on Snow, Plant and Streamflow Dynamics in Headwater Catchments Snow-dominated headwater catchments are critical for water resource throughout the world; particularly in Western US. Under climate change, temperature increases are expected to be amplified in mountainous regions. We use a data-driven approach to better understand the coupling among inter-annual variability in temperature, snow and plant community dynamics and stream discharge. We apply data mining methods (e.g., principal component analysis, random forest) to historical spatiotemporal datasets, including the SNOTEL data, Landsat-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and airborne LiDAR-based snow distribution. Although both snow distribution and NDVI are extremely heterogeneous spatially, the inter-annual variability and temporal responses are spatially consistent, providing an opportunity to quantify the effect of temperature in the catchment-scale. We demonstrate our approach in the East River Watershed of the Upper Colorado River Basin, including Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, where the changes in plant communities and their dynamics have been extensively documented. Results indicate that temperature - particularly spring temperature - has a significant control not only on the timing of snowmelt, plant NDVI and peak flow but also on the magnitude of peak NDVI, peak flow and annual discharge. Monthly temperature in spring explains the variability of snowmelt by the equivalent standard deviation of 3.4-4.4 days, and total discharge by 10-11%. In addition, the high correlation among June temperature, peak NDVI and annual discharge suggests a primary role of spring evapotranspiration on plant community phenology, productivity, and streamflow volume. On the other hand, summer monsoon precipitation does not contribute significantly to annual discharge, further emphasizing the importance of snowmelt. This approach is mostly based on a set of datasets typically available throughout the US, providing a powerful approach to link remote sensing techniques with long-term monitoring of temperature, snowfall, plant, and streamflow dynamics.

Decadal-scale export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment from the Susquehanna River basin, USA: Analysis and synthesis of temporal and spatial patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Qian; Ball, William P.; Moyer, Douglas

2016-01-01

The export of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) is a long-standing management concern for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of nutrient and sediment loads over the last three decades at multiple locations in the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), Chesapeake's largest tributary watershed. Sediment and nutrient riverine loadings, including both dissolved and particulate fractions, have generally declined at all sites upstream of Conowingo Dam (non-tidal SRB outlet). Period-of-record declines in riverine yield are generally smaller than those in source input, suggesting the possibility of legacy contributions. Consistent with other watershed studies, these results reinforce the importance of considering lag time between the implementation of management actions and achievement of river quality improvement. Whereas flow-normalized loadings for particulate species have increased recently below Conowingo Reservoir, those for upstream sites have declined, thus substantiating conclusions from prior studies about decreased reservoir trapping efficiency. In regard to streamflow effects, statistically significant log-linear relationships between annual streamflow and annual constituent load suggest the dominance of hydrological control on the inter-annual variability of constituent export. Concentration-discharge relationships revealed general chemostasis and mobilization effects for dissolved and particulate species, respectively, both suggesting transport-limitation conditions. In addition to affecting annual export rates, streamflow has also modulated the relative importance of dissolved and particulate fractions, as reflected by its negative correlations with dissolved P/total P, dissolved N/total N, particulate P/SS, and total N/total P ratios. For land-use effects, period-of-record median annual yields of N, P, and SS all correlate positively with the area fraction of non-forested land but negatively with that of forested land under all hydrological conditions. Overall, this work has informed understanding with respect to four major factors affecting constituent export (i.e., source input, reservoir modulation, streamflow, and land use) and demonstrated the value of long-term river monitoring.

NASA-modified precipitation products to improve USEPA nonpoint source water quality modeling for the Chesapeake Bay.

PubMed

Nigro, Joseph; Toll, David; Partington, Ed; Ni-Meister, Wenge; Lee, Shihyan; Gutierrez-Magness, Angelica; Engman, Ted; Arsenault, Kristi

2010-01-01

The USEPA has estimated that over 20,000 water bodies within the United States do not meet water quality standards. One of the regulations in the Clean Water Act of 1972 requires states to monitor the total maximum daily load, or the amount of pollution that can be carried by a water body before it is determined to be "polluted," for any watershed in the United States (Copeland, 2005). In response to this mandate, the USEPA developed Better Assessment Science Integrating Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) as a decision support tool for assessing pollution and to guide the decision-making process for improving water quality. One of the models in BASINS, the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), computes continuous streamflow rates and pollutant concentration at each basin outlet. By design, precipitation and other meteorological data from weather stations serve as standard model input. In practice, these stations may be unable to capture the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation events, especially if they are few and far between. An attempt was made to resolve this issue by substituting station data with NASA-modified/NOAA precipitation data. Using these data within HSPF, streamflow was calculated for seven watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Basin during low flow periods, convective storm periods, and annual flows. In almost every case, the modeling performance of HSPF increased when using the NASA-modified precipitation data, resulting in better streamflow statistics and, potentially, in improved water quality assessment.

Flows, droughts, and aliens: factors affecting the fish assemblage in a Sierra Nevada, California, stream.

PubMed

Kiernan, Joseph D; Moyle, Peter B

2012-06-01

The fishes of Martis Creek, in the Sierra Nevada of California (USA), were sampled at four sites annually over 30 years, 1979-2008. This long-term data set was used to examine (1) the persistence and stability of the Martis Creek fish assemblage in the face of environmental stochasticity; (2) whether native and alien fishes responded differently to a natural hydrologic regime (e.g., timing and magnitude of high and low flows); and (3) the importance of various hydrologic and physical habitat variables in explaining the abundances of native and alien fish species through time. Our results showed that fish assemblages were persistent at all sample sites, but individual species exhibited marked interannual variability in density, biomass, and relative abundance. The density and biomass of native fishes generally declined over the period of study, whereas most alien species showed no significant long-term trends. Only alien rainbow trout increased in both density and biomass at all sites over time. Redundancy analysis identified three hydrologic variables (annual 7-day minimum discharge, maximum winter discharge, and number of distinct winter floods) and two habitat variables (percentage of pool habitat and percentage of gravel substrate) that each explained a significant portion of the annual variation in fish assemblage structure. For alien taxa, their proportional contribution to the total fish assemblage was inversely related to mean annual streamflow, one-day maximum discharge in both winter and spring, and the frequency of springtime floods. Results of this study highlight the need for continuous annual monitoring of streams with highly variable flow regimes to evaluate shifts in fish community structure. Apparent successes or failures in stream management may appear differently depending on the time series of available data.

Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul

2018-04-01

The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large-ranging effects on streamflow and hydrologic conditions globally. While many studies have evaluated this relationship through correlation analysis between annual streamflow and ENSO indices, an assessment of potential asymmetric relationships between ENSO and streamflow is lacking. Here, we evaluate seasonal variations in streamflow by ENSO phase to identify asymmetric (AR) and symmetric (SR) spatial pattern responses globally and further corroborate with local precipitation and hydrological condition. The AR and SR patterns between seasonal precipitation and streamflow are identified at many locations for the first time. Our results identify strong SR patterns in particular regions including northwestern and southern US, northeastern and southeastern South America, northeastern and southern Africa, southwestern Europe, and central-south Russia. The seasonally lagged anomalous streamflow patterns are also identified and attributed to snowmelt, soil moisture, and/or cumulative hydrological processes across river basins. These findings may be useful in water resources management and natural hazards planning by better characterizing the propensity of flood or drought conditions by ENSO phase.

Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead time streamflow forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, Ajay; Ahmad, Sajjad

2009-03-01

We present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM), for long lead time streamflow forecasting using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on statistical learning theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and has been used to predict a quantity forward in time on the basis of training from past data. The strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problem. The SVM model is applied to three gages, i.e., Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1906-2001 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes with 3 years lead time. The SVM model is trained with 86 years of data (1906-1991) and tested with 10 years of data (1992-2001). On the basis of correlation coefficient, root means square error, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient the model shows satisfactory results, and the predictions are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, reveals a strong signal for ENSO and NAO indices as compared to PDO and AMO indices for the long lead time streamflow forecast. Streamflow predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feedforward back propagation artificial neural network model and linear regression.

Multi-decadal Decline of Southeast United States Streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tootle, G. A.; Lakshmi, V.; Therrell, M.; Huffaker, R.; Elliott, E. A.

2017-12-01

Unprecedented population growth combined with environmental and energy demands have led to water conflict in the Southeastern United States. The states of Florida, Georgia and Alabama have recently engaged in litigation on minimum in-stream flows to maintain ecosystems, fisheries and energy demands while satisfying a growing thirst in metropolitan Atlanta. A study of Southeastern United States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee) streamflow identified a declining pattern of flow over the past 25 years with increased dry periods being observed in the last decade. When evaluating calendar year streamflow for (56) unimpaired streamflow stations, a robust period of streamflow in the 1970's was followed by a consistent decline in streamflow from 1990 to present. In evaluating 20-year, 10-year and 5-year time periods of annual streamflow volume, the past decade reveals historic lows for each of these periods. When evaluating the influence of high frequency (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) and low frequency (e.g., Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation - AMO) climatic phenomenon, the shift of the AMO from a cold phase to a warm phase in the 1990's combined with multiple La Nina events may be associated with the streamflow decline.

Tree-ring chemistry response in black cherry to ammonium sulfate fertilization at two West Virginia sites

Treesearch

David R. DeWalle; Jeffrey S. Tepp; Callie J. Pickens; Pamela J. Edwards; William E. Sharpe

1995-01-01

The chemical element content of black cherry (Prunus serotina Ehrh.) tree rings showed significant changes related to annual ammonium sulfate treatments on one watershed (Fernow WS-3) which exhibited a significant increase in streamflow N export due to treatment. However, tree-ring, soil and streamflow chemistry did not respond to the same treatment...

Rainier Mesa CAU Infiltration Model using INFILv3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levitt, Daniel G.; Kwicklis, Edward M.

The outline of this presentation are: (1) Model Inputs - DEM, Precipitation, Air temp, Soil props, Surface geology, Vegetation; (2) Model Pre-processing - Runoff Routing and sinks, Slope and Azimuth, Soil Ksat reduction with slope (to mitigate bathtub ring), Soil-Bedrock Interface permeabilities; (3) Model Calibration - ET using PEST, Chloride mass balance data, Streamflow using PEST; (4) Model Validation - Streamflow data not used for calibration; (5) Uncertainty Analysis; and (6) Results. Conclusions are: (1) Average annual infiltration rates =11 to 18 mm/year for RM domain; (2) Average annual infiltration rates = 7 to 11 mm/year for SM domain; (3)more » ET = 70% of precipitation for both domains; (4) Runoff = 8-9% for RM; and 22-24% for SM - Apparently high average runoff is caused by the truncation of the lowerelevation portions of watersheds where much of the infiltration of runoff waters would otherwise occur; (5) Model results are calibrated to measured ET, CMB data, and streamflow observations; (6) Model results are validated using streamflow observations discovered after model calibration was complete; (7) Use of soil Ksat reduction with slope to mitigate bathtub ring was successful (based on calibration results); and (8) Soil-bedrock K{_}interface is innovative approach.« less

Methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter F in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Roy; Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to update methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on peak-flow data at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2011. The methods allow estimation of peak-flow frequencies (that is, peak-flow magnitudes, in cubic feet per second, associated with annual exceedance probabilities of 66.7, 50, 42.9, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent) at ungaged sites. The annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively.Regional regression analysis is a primary focus of Chapter F of this Scientific Investigations Report, and regression equations for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented. The regression equations are based on analysis of peak-flow frequencies and basin characteristics at 537 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana and were developed using generalized least squares regression or weighted least squares regression.All of the data used in calculating basin characteristics that were included as explanatory variables in the regression equations were developed for and are available through the USGS StreamStats application (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) for Montana. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report chapter can be conveniently solved using the Montana StreamStats application.Selected results from this study were compared with results of previous studies. For most hydrologic regions, the regression equations reported for this study had lower mean standard errors of prediction (in percent) than the previously reported regression equations for Montana. The equations presented for this study are considered to be an improvement on the previously reported equations primarily because this study (1) included 13 more years of peak-flow data; (2) included 35 more streamflow-gaging stations than previous studies; (3) used a detailed geographic information system (GIS)-based definition of the regulation status of streamflow-gaging stations, which allowed better determination of the unregulated peak-flow records that are appropriate for use in the regional regression analysis; (4) included advancements in GIS and remote-sensing technologies, which allowed more convenient calculation of basin characteristics and investigation of many more candidate basin characteristics; and (5) included advancements in computational and analytical methods, which allowed more thorough and consistent data analysis.This report chapter also presents other methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites. Two methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites located on the same streams as streamflow-gaging stations are described. Additionally, envelope curves relating maximum recorded annual peak flows to contributing drainage area for each of the eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented and compared to a national envelope curve. In addition to providing general information on characteristics of large peak flows, the regional envelope curves can be used to assess the reasonableness of peak-flow frequency estimates determined using the regression equations.

Regional equations for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for natural basins in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, Raymond M.

1997-01-01

Peak-streamflow frequency for 559 Texas stations with natural (unregulated and rural or nonurbanized) basins was estimated with annual peak-streamflow data through 1993. The peak-streamflow frequency and drainage-basin characteristics for the Texas stations were used to develop 16 sets of equations to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged natural stream sites in each of 11 regions in Texas. The relation between peak-streamflow frequency and contributing drainage area for 5 of the 11 regions is curvilinear, requiring that one set of equations be developed for drainage areas less than 32 square miles and another set be developed for drainage areas greater than 32 square miles. These equations, developed through multiple-regression analysis using weighted least squares, are based on the relation between peak-streamflow frequency and basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations. The regions represent areas with similar flood characteristics. The use and limitations of the regression equations also are discussed. Additionally, procedures are presented to compute the 50-, 67-, and 90-percent confidence limits for any estimation from the equations. Also, supplemental peak-streamflow frequency and basin characteristics for 105 selected stations bordering Texas are included in the report. This supplemental information will aid in interpretation of flood characteristics for sites near the state borders of Texas.

Basin characteristics, history of stream gaging, and statistical summary of selected streamflow records for the Rapid Creek basin, western South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Driscoll, Daniel G.; Zogorski, John S.

1990-01-01

The report presents a summary of basin characteristics affecting streamflow, a history of the U.S. Geological Survey 's stream-gaging program, and a compilation of discharge records and statistical summaries for selected sites within the Rapid Creek basin. It is the first in a series which will investigate surface-water/groundwater relations along Rapid Creek. The summary of basin characteristics includes descriptions of the geology and hydrogeology, physiography and climate, land use and vegetation, reservoirs, and water use within the basin. A recounting of the U.S. Geological Survey 's stream-gaging program and a tabulation of historic stream-gaging stations within the basin are furnished. A compilation of monthly and annual mean discharge values for nine currently operated, long-term, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging stations on Rapid Creek is presented. The statistical summary for each site includes summary statistics on monthly and annual mean values, correlation matrix for monthly values, serial correlation for 1 year lag for monthly values, percentile rankings for monthly and annual mean values, low and high value tables, duration curves, and peak-discharge tables. Records of monthend contents for two reservoirs within the basin also are presented. (USGS)

Influence of various water quality sampling strategies on load estimates for small streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Roerish, Eric D.

1999-01-01

Extensive streamflow and water quality data from eight small streams were systematically subsampled to represent various water‐quality sampling strategies. The subsampled data were then used to determine the accuracy and precision of annual load estimates generated by means of a regression approach (typically used for big rivers) and to determine the most effective sampling strategy for small streams. Estimation of annual loads by regression was imprecise regardless of the sampling strategy used; for the most effective strategy, median absolute errors were ∼30% based on the load estimated with an integration method and all available data, if a regression approach is used with daily average streamflow. The most effective sampling strategy depends on the length of the study. For 1‐year studies, fixed‐period monthly sampling supplemented by storm chasing was the most effective strategy. For studies of 2 or more years, fixed‐period semimonthly sampling resulted in not only the least biased but also the most precise loads. Additional high‐flow samples, typically collected to help define the relation between high streamflow and high loads, result in imprecise, overestimated annual loads if these samples are consistently collected early in high‐flow events.

Improving estimates of streamflow characteristics using LANDSAT-1 (ERTS-1) imagery. [Delmarva Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollyday, E. F. (Principal Investigator)

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Streamflow characteristics in the Delmarva Peninsula derived from the records of daily discharge of 20 gaged basins are representative of the full range in flow conditions and include all of those commonly used for design or planning purposes. They include annual flood peaks with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years, mean annual discharge, standard deviation of the mean annual discharge, mean monthly discharges, standard deviation of the mean monthly discharges, low-flow characteristics, flood volume characteristics, and the discharge equalled or exceeded 50 percent of the time. Streamflow and basin characteristics were related by a technique of multiple regression using a digital computer. A control group of equations was computed using basin characteristics derived from maps and climatological records. An experimental group of equations was computed using basin characteristics derived from LANDSAT imagery as well as from maps and climatological records. Based on a reduction in standard error of estimate equal to or greater than 10 percent, the equations for 12 stream flow characteristics were substantially improved by adding to the analyses basin characteristics derived from LANDSAT imagery.

Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Mandy L.; Juracek, Kyle E.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Foster, Guy

2015-01-01

Cheney Reservoir, constructed during 1962 to 1965, is the primary water supply for the city of Wichita, the largest city in Kansas. Sediment is an important concern for the reservoir as it degrades water quality and progressively decreases water storage capacity. Long-term data collection provided a unique opportunity to estimate the annual suspended sediment loads for the entire history of the reservoir. To quantify and characterize sediment loading to Cheney Reservoir, discrete suspended sediment samples and continuously measured streamflow data were collected from the North Fork Ninnescah River, the primary inflow to Cheney Reservoir, over a 48-year period. Continuous turbidity data also were collected over a 15-year period. These data were used together to develop simple linear regression models to compute continuous suspended sediment concentrations and loads from 1966 to 2013. The inclusion of turbidity as an additional explanatory variable with streamflow improved regression model diagnostics and increased the amount of variability in suspended sediment concentration explained by 14%. Using suspended sediment concentration from the streamflow-only model, the average annual suspended sediment load was 102,517 t (113,006 tn) and ranged from 4,826 t (5,320 tn) in 1966 to 967,569 t (1,066,562 tn) in 1979. The sediment load in 1979 accounted for about 20% of the total load over the 48-year history of the reservoir and 92% of the 1979 sediment load occurred in one 24-hour period during a 1% annual exceedance probability flow event (104-year flood). Nearly 60% of the reservoir sediment load during the 48-year study period occurred in 5 years with extreme flow events (9% to 1% annual exceedance probability, or 11- to 104-year flood events). A substantial portion (41%) of sediment was transported to the reservoir during five storm events spanning only eight 24-hour periods during 1966 to 2013. Annual suspended sediment load estimates based on streamflow were, on average, within ±20% of estimates based on streamflow and turbidity combined. Results demonstrate that large suspended sediment loads are delivered to Cheney Reservoir in very short time periods, indicating that sediment management plans eventually must address large, infrequent inflow events to be effective.

Use of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and bacterial source tracking for development of the fecal coliform total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Christians Creek, Augusta County, Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyer, Douglas; Hyer, Kenneth

2003-01-01

Impairment of surface waters by fecal coliform bacteria is a water-quality issue of national scope and importance. Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act requires that each State identify surface waters that do not meet applicable water-quality standards. In Virginia, more than 175 stream segments are on the 1998 Section 303(d) list of impaired waters because of violations of the water-quality standard for fecal coliform bacteria. A total maximum daily load (TMDL) will need to be developed by 2006 for each of these impaired streams and rivers by the Virginia Departments of Environmental Quality and Conservation and Recreation. A TMDL is a quantitative representation of the maximum load of a given water-quality constituent, from all point and nonpoint sources, that a stream can assimilate without violating the designated water-quality standard. Christians Creek, in Augusta County, Virginia, is one of the stream segments listed by the State of Virginia as impaired by fecal coliform bacteria. Watershed modeling and bacterial source tracking were used to develop the technical components of the fecal coliform bacteria TMDL for Christians Creek. The Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow, fecal coliform concentrations, and source-specific fecal coliform loading in Christians Creek. Ribotyping, a bacterial source tracking technique, was used to identify the dominant sources of fecal coliform bacteria in the Christians Creek watershed. Ribotyping also was used to determine the relative contributions of specific sources to the observed fecal coliform load in Christians Creek. Data from the ribotyping analysis were incorporated into the calibration of the fecal coliform model. Study results provide information regarding the calibration of the streamflow and fecal coliform bacteria models and also identify the reductions in fecal coliform loads required to meet the TMDL for Christians Creek. The calibrated streamflow model simulated observed streamflow characteristics with respect to total annual runoff, seasonal runoff, average daily streamflow, and hourly stormflow. The calibrated fecal coliform model simulated the patterns and range of observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations. Observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations during low-flow periods ranged from 40 to 2,000 colonies per 100 milliliters, and peak concentrations during stormflow periods ranged from 23,000 to 730,000 colonies per 100 milliliters. Additionally, fecal coliform bacteria concentrations were generally higher upstream and lower downstream. Simulated source-specific contributions of fecal coliform bacteria to instream load were matched to the observed contributions from the dominant sources, which were beaver, cats, cattle, deer, dogs, ducks, geese, horses, humans, muskrats, poultry, raccoons, and sheep. According to model results, a 96-percent reduction in the current fecal coliform load delivered from the watershed to Christians Creek would result in compliance with the designated water-quality goals and associated TMDL.

Hydraulic-Geometry Relations for Rivers in Coastal and Central Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.

2004-01-01

Hydraulic-geometry relations (curves) were derived for 15 sites on 12 rivers in coastal and central Maine on the basis of site-specific (at-a-station) hydraulic-geometry relations and hydraulic models. At-a-station hydraulic-geometry curves, expressed as well-established power functions, describe the relations between channel geometry, velocity, and flow at a given point on a river. The derived at-a-station hydraulic-geometry curves indicate that, on average, a given increase in flow at a given river cross section in the study area will be nearly equally conveyed by increases in velocity and channel cross-sectional area. Regional curves describing the bankfull streamflow and associated channel geometry as functions of drainage area were derived for use in stream-channel assessment and restoration projects specific to coastal and central Maine. Regional hydraulic-geometry curves were derived by combining hydraulic-geometry information for 15 river cross sections using bankfull flow as the common reference streamflow. The exponents of the derived regional hydraulic-geometry relations indicate that, in the downstream direction, most of the conveyance of increasing contribution of flow is accommodated by an increase in cross-sectional area?with about 50 percent of the increase in flow accommodated by an increase in channel width, and 32 percent by an increase in depth. The remaining 18 percent is accommodated by an increase in streamflow velocity. On an annual-peak-series basis, results of this study indicate that the occurrence of bankfull streamflow for rivers in Maine is more frequent than the 1.5-year streamflow. On a flow-duration basis, bankfull streamflow for rivers in coastal and central Maine is equaled or exceeded approximately 8.1 percent of the time on mean?or about 30 days a year. Bankfull streamflow is roughly three times that of the mean annual streamflow for the sites investigated in this study. Regional climate, snowmelt hydrology, and glacial geology may play important roles in dictating the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of bankfull streamflows observed for rivers in coastal and central Maine.

Environmental Flow Assessments in the McKenzie and Santiam River Basins, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risley, J. C.; Bach, L.; Budai, C.; Duffy, K.

2012-12-01

The McKenzie and Santiam Rivers are tributaries of the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon, draining areas of 3,370 and 4,690 square kilometers, respectively. The river basins are heavily forested and contain streams that historically provided critical habit for salmonid rearing, salmonid spawning, and bull trout. In the 1950s and 1960s, hydropower and flood control dams were constructed in both basins. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps), began assessing the impacts of dam regulation in the two basins on streamflow, geomorphic, and ecological processes (Risley et. al., 2010; 2012). The baseline assessments were made under the auspices of the Sustainable Rivers Project (SRP), formed in 2002 by TNC and the Corps. SRP is a nation-wide partnership aimed at developing, implementing, and refining environmental flows downstream of dams. Environmental flows can be defined as the streamflow needed to sustain ecosystems while continuing to meet human needs. Determining environmental flows is an iterative collective process involving stakeholders, workshops, bio-monitoring, and follow-up assessments. The dams on the McKenzie and Santiam Rivers have decreased the frequency and magnitude of floods and increased the magnitude of low flows. In the Santiam River study reaches, for example, annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased by 46-percent on average because of regulated streamflow conditions. Annual 7-day minimum flows in six of the seven study reaches increased by 146 percent on average. On a seasonal basis, median monthly streamflows in both river basins decreased from February to May and increased from September to January. However, the magnitude of these impacts usually decreased farther downstream from the dams because of the cumulative inflow from unregulated tributaries and groundwater discharge below the dams. In addition to streamflow assessments, the USGS studies included a geomorphic and ecological characterization of both rivers using reach characterization, historical channel mapping, aerial photography, and specific gage analysis methods. Decreased flooding and decreased sediment supply resulting from the dams likely contributed to a decrease in gravel bars, which are critical to salmonid spawning. Secondary channel features and sinuosity also decreased. However, other anthropogenic factors, such as bank stabilization revetments, land filling, and channel dredging, have also impacted channel morphology in both basins. Exemplar native terrestrial and aquatic species of interest and used in developing environmental flows for both river basins include black cottonwood, red alder, bull trout, spring Chinook, Oregon chub, red-legged frogs, and western pond turtles. Suggestions for future bio-monitoring and investigations were also provided in the study reports. References: Risley, John, Wallick, J.R., Waite, Ian, and Stonewall, Adam, 2010, Development of an environmental flow framework for the McKenzie River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-5016, 94 p. Risley, J.C., Wallick, J.R., Mangano, J.F., and Jones, K.F., 2012, An environmental streamflow assessment for the Santiam River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012-1133, 66 p.

A technique to minimize uncertainties in load duration curves (LDCs) for water quality-impaired ungauged sites

EPA Science Inventory

For many water quality-impaired stream segments, streamflow and water quality monitoring sites are not available. Lack of available streamflow data at impaired ungauged sites leads to uncertainties in total maximum daily load (TMDL) estimation. We developed a technique to minimiz...

Compilation of hydrologic data for White Sands pupfish habitat and nonhabitat areas, northern Tularosa Basin, White Sands Missile Range and Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico, 1911-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naus, C.A.; Myers, R.G.; Saleh, D.K.; Myers, N.C.

2014-01-01

The White Sands pupfish (Cyprinodon tularosa), listed as threatened by the State of New Mexico and as a Federal species of concern, is endemic to the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. Because water quality can affect pupfish and the environmental conditions of their habitat, a comprehensive compilation of hydrologic data for pupfish habitat and nonhabitat areas in the northern Tularosa Basin was undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with White Sands Missile Range. The four locations within the Tularosa Basin that are known pupfish habitat areas are the Salt Creek, Malpais Spring and Malpais Salt Marsh, Main Mound Spring, and Lost River habitat areas. Streamflow data from the Salt Creek near Tularosa streamflow-gaging station indicated that the average annual mean streamflow and average annual total streamflow for water years 1995–2008 were 1.35 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) and 983 acre-feet, respectively. Periods of no flow were observed in water years 2002 through 2006. Dissolved-solids concentrations in Salt Creek samples collected from 1911 through 2007 ranged from 2,290 to 66,700 milligrams per liter (mg/L). The average annual mean streamflow and average annual total streamflow at the Malpais Spring near Oscura streamflow-gaging station for water years 2003–8 were 6.81 ft3/s and 584 acre-feet, respectively. Dissolved-solids concentrations for 16 Malpais Spring samples ranged from 3,882 to 5,500 mg/L. Isotopic data for a Malpais Spring near Oscura water sample collected in 1982 indicated that the water was more than 27,900 years old. Streamflow from Main Mound Spring was estimated at 0.007 ft3/s in 1955 and 1957 and ranged from 0.02 to 0.07 ft3/s from 1996 to 2001. Dissolved-solids concentrations in samples collected between 1955 and 2007 ranged from an estimated 3,760 to 4,240 mg/L in the upper pond and 4,840 to 5,120 mg/L in the lower pond. Isotopic data for a Main Mound Spring water sample collected in 1982 indicated that the water was about 19,600 years old. Dissolved-solids concentrations of Lost River samples collected from 1984 to 1999 ranged from 8,930 to 118,000 (estimated) mg/L. Dissolved-solids concentrations in samples from nonhabitat area sites ranged from 1,740 to 54,200 (estimated) mg/L. In general, water collected from pupfish nonhabitat area sites tends to have larger proportions of calcium, magnesium, and sulfate than water from pupfish habitat area sites. Water from springs associated with mounds in pupfish nonhabitat areas was of a similar type (calcium-sulfate) to water associated with mounds in pupfish habitat areas. Alkali Spring had a sodium-chloride water type, but the proportions of sodium-chloride and magnesium-sulfate are unique as compared to samples from other sites.

Use of streamflow data to estimate base flowground-water recharge for Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, W.A.; Radloff, M.J.; Considine, E.J.; Kennedy, J.L.

2007-01-01

The average annual base flow/recharge was determined for streamflow-gaging stations throughout Wisconsin by base-flow separation. A map of the State was prepared that shows the average annual base flow for the period 1970-99 for watersheds at 118 gaging stations. Trend analysis was performed on 22 of the 118 streamflow-gaging stations that had long-term records, unregulated flow, and provided aerial coverage of the State. The analysis found that a statistically significant increasing trend was occurring for watersheds where the primary land use was agriculture. Most gaging stations where the land cover was forest had no significant trend. A method to estimate the average annual base flow at ungaged sites was developed by multiple-regression analysis using basin characteristics. The equation with the lowest standard error of estimate, 9.5%, has drainage area, soil infiltration and base flow factor as independent variables. To determine the average annual base flow for smaller watersheds, estimates were made at low-flow partial-record stations in 3 of the 12 major river basins in Wisconsin. Regression equations were developed for each of the three major river basins using basin characteristics. Drainage area, soil infiltration, basin storage and base-flow factor were the independent variables in the regression equations with the lowest standard error of estimate. The standard error of estimate ranged from 17% to 52% for the three river basins. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow, eastern and western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeton, A.E.; Dettinger, M.D.; Smith, J. LaRue

1996-01-01

Precipitation-runoff models of the East Fork Carson and North Fork American Rivers were developed and calibrated for use in evaluating the sensitivity of streamflow in the north-central Sierra Nevada to climate change. The East Fork Carson River drains part of the rain-shadowed, eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada and is generally higher than the North Fork American River, which drains the wetter, western slope. First, a geographic information system was developed to describe the spatial variability of basin characteristics and to help estimate model parameters. The result was a partitioning of each basin into noncontiguous, but hydrologically uniform, land units. Hydrologic descriptions of these units were developed and the Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to simulate water and energy balances for each unit in response to daily weather conditions. The models were calibrated and verified using historical streamflows over 22-year (Carson River) and 42-year (American River) periods. Simulated annual streamflow errors average plus 10 percent of the observed flow for the East Fork Carson River basin and plus 15 percent for the North Fork American River basin. Interannual variability is well simulated overall, but, at daily scales, wet periods are simulated more accurately than drier periods. The simulated water budgets for the two basins are significantly different in seasonality of streamflow, sublimation, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt. The simulations indicate that differences in snowpack and snowmelt timing can play pervasive roles in determining the sensitivity of water resources to climate change, in terms of both resource availability and amount. The calibrated models were driven by more than 25 hypothetical climate-change scenarios, each 100 years long. The scenarios were synthesized and spatially disaggregated by methods designed to preserve realistic daily, monthly, annual, and spatial statistics. Simulated streamflow timing was not very sensitive to changes in mean precipitation, but was sensitive to changes in mean temperatures. Changes in annual streamflow amounts were amplified reflections of imposed mean precipitation changes, with especially large responses to wetter climates. In contrast, streamflow amount was surprisingly insensitive to mean temperature changes as a result of temporal links between peak snowmelt and the beginning of warm-season evapotranspiration. Comparisons of simulations driven by temporally detailed climate-model changes in which mean temperature changes vary from month to month and simulations in which uniform climate changes were imposed throughout the year indicate that the snowpack accumulates the influences of short-term conditions so that season average climate changes were more important than shorter term changes.

A stream-gaging network analysis for the 7-day, 10-year annual low flow in New Hampshire streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Robert H.

2003-01-01

The 7-day, 10-year (7Q10) low-flow-frequency statistic is a widely used measure of surface-water availability in New Hampshire. Regression equations and basin-characteristic digital data sets were developed to help water-resource managers determine surface-water resources during periods of low flow in New Hampshire streams. These regression equations and data sets were developed to estimate streamflow statistics for the annual and seasonal low-flow-frequency, and period-of-record and seasonal period-of-record flow durations. generalized-least-squares (GLS) regression methods were used to develop the annual 7Q10 low-flow-frequency regression equation from 60 continuous-record stream-gaging stations in New Hampshire and in neighboring States. In the regression equation, the dependent variables were the annual 7Q10 flows at the 60 stream-gaging stations. The independent (or predictor) variables were objectively selected characteristics of the drainage basins that contribute flow to those stations. In contrast to ordinary-least-squares (OLS) regression analysis, GLS-developed estimating equations account for differences in length of record and spatial correlations among the flow-frequency statistics at the various stations.A total of 93 measurable drainage-basin characteristics were candidate independent variables. On the basis of several statistical parameters that were used to evaluate which combination of basin characteristics contribute the most to the predictive power of the equations, three drainage-basin characteristics were determined to be statistically significant predictors of the annual 7Q10: (1) total drainage area, (2) mean summer stream-gaging station precipitation from 1961 to 90, and (3) average mean annual basinwide temperature from 1961 to 1990.To evaluate the effectiveness of the stream-gaging network in providing regional streamflow data for the annual 7Q10, the computer program GLSNET (generalized-least-squares NETwork) was used to analyze the network by application of GLS regression between streamflow and the climatic and basin characteristics of the drainage basin upstream from each stream-gaging station. Improvement to the predictive ability of the regression equations developed for the network analyses is measured by the reduction in the average sampling-error variance, and can be achieved by collecting additional streamflow data at existing stations. The predictive ability of the regression equations is enhanced even further with the addition of new stations to the network. Continued data collection at unregulated stream-gaging stations with less than 14 years of record resulted in the greatest cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling-error variance of the annual 7Q10 regional regression equation. The addition of new stations in basins with underrepresented values for the independent variables of the total drainage area, average mean annual basinwide temperature, or mean summer stream-gaging station precipitation in the annual 7Q10 regression equation yielded a much greater cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling-error variance than when more data were collected at existing unregulated stations. To maximize the regional information obtained from the stream-gaging network for the annual 7Q10, ranking of the streamflow data can be used to determine whether an active station should be continued or if a new or discontinued station should be activated for streamflow data collection. Thus, this network analysis can help determine the costs and benefits of continuing the operation of a particular station or activating a new station at another location to predict the 7Q10 at ungaged stream reaches. The decision to discontinue an existing station or activate a new station, however, must also consider its contribution to other water-resource analyses such as flood management, water quality, or trends in land use or climatic change.

Flow characteristics of rivers in northern Australia: Implications for development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petheram, Cuan; McMahon, Thomas A.; Peel, Murray C.

2008-07-01

SummaryAnnual, monthly and daily streamflows from 99 unregulated rivers across northern Australia were analysed to assess the general surface water resources of the region and their implications for development. The potential for carry-over storages was assessed using the Gould-Dincer Gamma method, which utilises the mean, standard deviation, skewness and lag-one serial correlation coefficient of annual flows. Runs Analysis was used to describe the characteristics of drought in northern Australia and the potential for 'active' water harvesting was evaluated by Base Flow Separation, Flow Duration Curves and Spells Analysis. These parameters for northern Australia were compared with data from southern Australia and data for similar Köppen class from around the world. Notably, the variability and seasonality of annual streamflow across northern Australia were observed to be high compared with that of similar Köppen classes from the rest of the world (RoW). The high inter-annual variability of runoff means that carry-over storages in northern Australia will need to be considerably larger than for rivers from the RoW (assuming similar mean annual runoff, yield and reliability). For example, in the three major Köppen zones across the North, it was possible (theoretically) to only exploit approximately 33% (Köppen Aw; n = 6), 25% (Köppen BSh; n = 12) and 13% (Köppen BWh; n = 11) of mean annual streamflow (assuming a hypothetical storage size equal to the mean annual flow). Over 90% of north Australian rivers had a Base Flow Index of less than 0.4, 72% had negative annual lag-one autocorrelation values and in half the rivers sampled greater than 80% of the total flow occurred during the 3-month peak period. These data confirm that flow in the rivers of northern Australia is largely event driven and that the north Australian environment has limited natural storage capacity. Hence, there is relatively little opportunity in many northern rivers to actively harvest water for on-farm storage, particularly under environmental flow rules that stipulate that water can only be extracted during the falling limb of a hydrograph. Streamflow drought severity, the product of drought length and magnitude, was found to be greater in northern Australia than in similar climatic regions of the RoW, due to higher inter-annual variability increasing the drought magnitude over the course of normal drought lengths. The high likelihood of severe drought means that agriculturalists seeking to irrigate from rivers in northern Australia should have especially well developed drought contingency plans.

Intra-to multidecadel variations of snowpack and streamflow records in the Andes of Chile and Argentina between 30 degrees and 37 degrees S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Regional composites of winter snowpack (1951-2008) and mean annual river discharges (1906-2007) are used to evaluate the main intra- to multi-decadal hydrologic variations in the Andes of Chile and Argentina between 30° and 37°S. The streamflow record shows a non-significant negative trend but two s...

Logging effects on streamflow: water yields and summer flows at Caspar Creek in northwestern California

Treesearch

Elizabeth T. Keppeler; Robert R. Ziemer

1990-01-01

Streamflow data for a 21-year period were analyzed to determine the effects of selective tractor harvesting of second-growth Douglas fir and redwood forest on the volume, timing, and duration of low flows and annual water yield in northwestern California. The flow response to logging was highly variable. Some of this variability was correlated with antecedent...

Streamflow characteristics of the Colorado River Basin in Utah through September 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, R.C.; Johnson, E.B.; Plantz, G.G.

1987-01-01

 This report summarizes discharge data and other streamflow characteristics developed from gag ing-station records collected through September 1981 at 337 stations in the Colorado River Basin in Utah. Data also are included for 14 stations in adjacent areas of the bordering states of Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming (fig. 1). The study leading to this report was done in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, which needs the streamflow data in order to evaluate impacts of mining on the hydrologic system. The report also will be beneficial to other Federal, State, and county agencies and to individuals concerned with water supply and water problems in the Colorado River Basin.The streamflow characteristics in the report could be useful in many water-related studies that involve the following:Definition of baseline-hydrologic conditions; studies of the effects of man's activities on streamflow; frequency analyses of low and high flows; regional analyses of streamflow characteristics; design of water-supply systems; water-power studies; forecasting of stream discharge; time-series analyses of streamflow; design of flood-control structures; stream-pollution studies; and water-chemistry transport studies.The basic data used to develop the summaries in this report are records of daily and peak discharge collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal agencies. Much of the work of the Geological Survey was done in cooperation with Federal, State, and county agencies. Discharge recordsincluded in the report generally were for stations with at least 1 complete water year of record and nearby stations that were on the same stream and had different streamflow characteristics. A water year is a 12-month period ending September 30, and it is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. For streams that have had significant changes in regulation by reservoirs or diversions, the records before and after those changes were used separately to provide streamflow characteristics for each period of homogeneous streamflow and to show the change in the characteristics. Summaries for annual peak discharge are included only for stations with 5 or more years of data. The summaries of annual lowest and highest mean-discharge frequency are reported for stations with 10 or more years of daily-discharge record and for which computer-generated frequency curves provided a reasonable fit of the plotted data.

Temporal Differences in the Hydrologic Regime of the Lower Platte River, Nebraska, 1895-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginting, Daniel; Zelt, Ronald B.; Linard, Joshua I.

2008-01-01

In cooperation with the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District for a collaborative study of the cumulative effects of water and channel management practices on stream and riparian ecology, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled, analyzed, and summarized hydrologic information from long-term gaging stations on the lower Platte River to determine any significant temporal differences among six discrete periods during 1895-2006 and to interpret any significant changes in relation to changes in climatic conditions or other factors. A subset of 171 examined hydrologic indices (HIs) were selected for use as indices that (1) included most of the variance in the larger set of indices, (2) retained utility as indicators of the streamflow regime, and (3) provided information at spatial and temporal scale(s) that were most indicative of streamflow regime(s). The study included the most downstream station within the central Platte River segment that flowed to the confluence with the Loup River and all four active streamflow-gaging stations (2006) on the lower Platte River main stem extending from the confluence of the Loup River and Platte River to the confluence of the Platte River and Missouri River south of Omaha. The drainage areas of the five streamflow-gaging stations covered four (of eight) climate divisions in Nebraska?division 2 (north central), 3 (northeast), 5 (central), and 6 (east central). Historical climate data and daily streamflow records from 1895 through 2006 at the five streamflow-gaging stations were divided into six 11-water-year periods: 1895?1905, 1934?44, 1951?61, 1966?76, 1985?95, and 1996?2006. Analysis of monthly climate variables?precipitation and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index?was used to determine the degree of hydroclimatic association between streamflow and climate. Except for the 1895?1905 period, data gaps in the streamflow record were filled by data estimation techniques, and 171 hydrologic indices were calculated using the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process software developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. A subset of 27 nonredundant indices (of the 171 indices) was selected using principal component analysis. Indices that described monthly streamflow?mean, maximum, minimum, skewness, and coefficients of variation?also were used. Comparison of these selected indices allowed determination of temporal differences among the six 11-water-year periods for each gaging station. The lower Platte River basin was affected by moderate to severe drought conditions in the 1934?44 period. The widespread drought was preceded by mildly to moderately wet conditions in the 1895?1906 period, followed by incipient drought to incipiently wet conditions in the 1951?61 periods and mildly wet conditions in 1966?76 period, moderately wet conditions in the 1985?1995 period, and incipient drought to mildly wet conditions in the 1996?2006 period. Monthly streamflow of the Platte River from Duncan through Louisville, Nebraska, correlated significantly with the monthly Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. Temporal differences in median values of monthly-mean and monthly-maximum streamflow measured at Duncan, North Bend, and Ashland stations between the two moderately wet periods (1895?1905 and 1985?95) indicated that streamflow storage reservoirs and regulation some time after 1906 significantly reduced monthly streamflow magnitude and amplitude?the difference between the highest and lowest median values of monthly mean streamflow. Effects of storage reservoirs on the median values of monthly-minimum streamflow were less obvious. Temporal differences among the other five periods, from 1934 through 2006 when streamflow was affected by storage and regulation, indicated the predominant effects of contrasting climate conditions on median values of monthly mean, maximum, and minimum streamflow. Significant temporal differences in monthly streamflow values were evident mainly between the two periods of greatly

Evaluation of the effects of Middleton's stormwater-management activities on streamflow and water-quality characteristics of Pheasant Branch, Dane County, Wisconsin 1975-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Rose, William J.; Garn, Herbert S.

2012-01-01

Few long-term data sets are available for evaluating the effects of urban stormwater-management practices. Over 30 years of data are available for evaluating the effectiveness of such practices by the city of Middleton, Wis. Analysis of streamflow and water-quality data collected on Pheasant Branch, demonstrates the relation between the changes in the watershed to the structural and nonstructural best management practices put in place during 1975-2008. A comparison of the data from Pheasant Branch with streamflow and water-quality data (suspended sediment and total phosphorus) collected at other nearby streams was made to assist in the determination of the possible causes of the changes in Pheasant Branch. Based on 34 years of streamflow data collected at the Pheasant Branch at Middleton streamflow-gaging station, flood peak discharges increased 37 percent for the 2-year flood and 83 percent for the 100-year flood. A comparison of data for the same period from an adjacent rural stream, Black Earth at Black Earth had a 43 percent increase in the 2-year flood peak discharge and a 140-percent increase in the 100-year flood peak discharge. Because the flood peak discharges on Pheasant Branch have not increased as much as Black Earth Creek it appears that the stormwater management practices have been successful in mitigating the effects of urbanization. Generally urbanization results in increased flood peak discharges. The overall increase in flood peak discharges seen in both streams probably is the result of the substantial increase in precipitation during the study period. Average annual runoff in Pheasant Branch has also been increasing due to increasing average annual precipitation and urbanization. The stormwater-management practices in Middleton have been successful in decreasing the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus loads to Lake Mendota from the Pheasant Branch watershed. These loads decreased in spite of increased annual runoff and flood peaks, which are often expected to produce higher sediment and phosphorus loads. The biggest decreases in sediment and phosphorus loads occurred after 2001 when a large detention pond, the Confluence Pond, began operation. Since 2001, the annual suspended-sediment load has decreased from 2,650 tons per year to 1,450 tons per year for a 45-percent decrease. The annual total phosphorus load has decreased from 12,200 pounds per year to 6,300 pounds per year for a 48-percent decrease. A comparison of Pheasant Branch at Middleton with two other streams, Spring Harbor Storm Sewer and Yahara River at Windsor, that drain into Lake Mendota shows that suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load decreases were greatest at Pheasant Branch at Middleton. Prior to the construction of the Confluence Pond, annual suspended-sediment yield and total phosphorus yield from Pheasant Branch watershed was the largest of the three watersheds. After 2001, suspended-sediment yield was greatest at Spring Harbor Storm Sewer, and lowest at Yahara at Windsor; annual total phosphorus yield was greater at Yahara River at Windsor than that of Pheasant Branch. The stormwater-quality plan for Middleton shows that the city has met the present State of Wisconsin Administrative Code chap. NR216/NR151 requirements of reducing total suspended solids by 20 percent for the developed area in Middleton. In addition, the city already has met the 40-percent reduction in total suspended solids required by 2013. Snow and ice melt runoff from road surfaces and parking lots following winter storms can effect water quality because the runoff contains varying amounts of road salt. To evaluate the effect of road deicing on stream water quality in Pheasant Branch, specific conductance and chloride were monitored during two winter seasons. The maximum estimated concentration of chloride during the monitoring period was 931 milligrams per liter, which exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency acute criterion of 860 milligrams per liter. Chloride concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency chronic criterion of 230 milligrams per liter for at least 10 days during February and March 2007 and for 45 days during the 2007-8 winter seasons. The total sodium chloride load for the monitoring period was 1,720 tons and the largest sodium chloride load occurred in March and April of each year.

Use of digital land-cover data from the Landsat satellite in estimating streamflow characteristics in the Cumberland Plateau of Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hollyday, E.F.; Hansen, G.R.

1983-01-01

Streamflow may be estimated with regression equations that relate streamflow characteristics to characteristics of the drainage basin. A statistical experiment was performed to compare the accuracy of equations using basin characteristics derived from maps and climatological records (control group equations) with the accuracy of equations using basin characteristics derived from Landsat data as well as maps and climatological records (experimental group equations). Results show that when the equations in both groups are arranged into six flow categories, there is no substantial difference in accuracy between control group equations and experimental group equations for this particular site where drainage area accounts for more than 90 percent of the variance in all streamflow characteristics (except low flows and most annual peak logarithms). (USGS)

Determination of base-flow characteristics at selected streamflow-gaging stations on the Mad River, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

1995-01-01

This report describes the results of a study to estimate characteristics of base flow and sustained ground-water discharge at five streamflow-gaging stations on the Mad River in Ohio. The five streamflow-gaging stations are located at Zanesfield, near Urbana, at St. Paris Pike (at Eagle City), near Springfield, and near Dayton. The median of the annual-mean base flows, determined by means of hydrograph separation, ranged from 0.64 (ft3/s)/mi2 (cubic feet per second per square mile) at Zanesfield to 0.74 (ft3/s)/mi2 at St. Paris Pike. The median percentage of annual total streamflow attributed to base flow ranged from 61.8 percent at Zanesfield to 76.1 percent near Urbana. Estimates of an upper limit (or threshold) at which base flows can be considered to be composed predominately of sustained ground-water discharge were made by constructing and analyzing base- flow-duration curves. The sustained ground-water discharges (base flows less than or equal to the estimated sustained ground-water-discharge thresholds) are assumed to originate from ground-water- flow systems that are minimally affected by seasonal climatic changes. The median sustained ground- water discharge ranged from 0.11 (ft3/s)/mi2 at Zanesfield to 0.26 (ft3/s)/mi2 at St. Paris Pike (at Eagle City) and near Springfield. The median sustained ground-water discharge, expressed as a percentage of the median annual-mean base flow, ranged from 17.2 percent at Zanesfield to 38.6 percent near Springfield.

Increased evaporation following widespread tree mortality limits streamflow response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Harpold, A. A.; Gochis, D. J.; Ewers, B. E.; Reed, D. E.; Papuga, S. A.; Brooks, P. D.

2014-07-01

A North American epidemic of mountain pine beetle (MPB) has disturbed over 5 million ha of forest containing headwater catchments crucial to water resources. However, there are limited observations of MPB effects on partitioning of precipitation between vapor loss and streamflow, and to our knowledge these fluxes have not been observed simultaneously following disturbance. We combined eddy covariance vapor loss (V), catchment streamflow (Q), and stable isotope indicators of evaporation (E) to quantify hydrologic partitioning over 3 years in MPB-impacted and control sites. Annual control V was conservative, varying only from 573 to 623 mm, while MPB site V varied more widely from 570 to 700 mm. During wet periods, MPB site V was greater than control V in spite of similar above-canopy potential evapotranspiration (PET). During a wet year, annual MPB V was greater and annual Q was lower as compared to an average year, while in a dry year, essentially all water was partitioned to V. Ratios of 2H and 18O in stream and soil water showed no kinetic evaporation at the control site, while MPB isotope ratios fell below the local meteoric water line, indicating greater E and snowpack sublimation (Ss) counteracted reductions in transpiration (T) and sublimation of canopy-intercepted snow (Sc). Increased E was possibly driven by reduced canopy shading of shortwave radiation, which averaged 21 W m-2 during summer under control forest as compared to 66 W m-2 under MPB forest. These results show that abiotic vapor losses may limit widely expected streamflow increases.

On the Value of Climate Elasticity Indices to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Projection using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, Mehmet; Moradkhani, Hamid

2015-04-01

Changes in two climate elasticity indices, i.e. temperature and precipitation elasticity of streamflow, were investigated using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset as forcing to two hydrologic models. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) hydrologic models, were calibrated at 1/16 degree resolution and the simulated streamflow was routed to the basin outlet of interest. We estimated precipitation and temperature elasticity of streamflow from: (1) observed streamflow; (2) simulated streamflow by VIC and SAC-SMA models using observed climate for the current climate (1963-2003); (3) simulated streamflow using simulated climate from 10 GCM - CMIP5 dataset for the future climate (2010-2099) including two concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two downscaled climate products (BCSD and MACA). The streamflow sensitivity to long-term (e.g., 30-year) average annual changes in temperature and precipitation is estimated for three periods i.e. 2010-40, 2040-70 and 2070-99. We compared the results of the three cases to reflect on the value of precipitation and temperature indices to assess the climate change impacts on Columbia River streamflow. Moreover, these three cases for two models are used to assess the effects of different uncertainty sources (model forcing, model structure and different pathways) on the two climate elasticity indices.

Streamflow statistical summaries for Colorado streams through September 30, 1975; Volume 2, Colorado River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petsch, Harold E.

1979-01-01

Statistical summaries of daily streamflow data for 189 stations west of the Continental Divide in Colorado are presented in this report. Duration tables, high-flow sequence tables, and low-flow sequence tables provide information about daily mean discharge. The mean, variance, standard deviation, skewness, and coefficient of variation are provided for monthly and annual flows. Percentages of average flow are provided for monthly flows and first-order serial-correlation coefficients are provided for annual flows. The text explain the nature and derivation of the data and illustrates applications of the tabulated information by examples. The data may be used by agencies and individuals engaged in water studies. (USGS)

The contributions of climate and land cover impacts on streamflow in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shaochun; Eisner, Stephanie; Astrup, Rasmus; Beldring, Stein

2017-04-01

Located in high latitudes, Norway experienced significant changes in climate in the last 115 years. The average temperature rises at an average rate of 0.09 °C/decade while the annual precipitation increased by ca. 16% from 1900 to 2014 with statistical significance. In the meantime, the standing forest timber volume has increased continuously and almost tripled by the year 2012. Both the changes in climate and land cover would directly affect the streamflow and the hydropower production in Norway, which accounts for about 98% of the total electricity production of the whole country. However, there is a lack of understanding of the contribution of these different drivers to changes in streamflow in Norway, although such knowledge provides important information for future changes in water availability. This paper aims to quantify the relative contribution of climate and land cover impacts on the mean annual and seasonal streamflow (including total, quick and base flow) using the hydrological model HBV for 56 natural catchments in Norway. The changes in forest extend and structure are considered as the major land cover changes in these catchments. The discharge data are split into two periods (1961 - 1988 and 1989 - 2015) as the reference and changing periods. The HBV model was firstly calibrated in the reference period for all catchment separately and the simulated discharge in the changing period was used to calculate the relative contributions. The results show that the climate change played a bigger role than land cover change on annual total, quick and base flows in 62%, 48% and 82% studied basins, respectively. The climate change is the dominant driver on streamflows in winter and spring in most basins, while the land use change affected more significantly on summer flows as well as the base flow in autumn. Finally, the resulted contribution will be compared with the changes in climate and forest characteristics as external validation.

Reconstructing pre-instrumental streamflow in Eastern Australia using a water balance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tozer, C. R.; Kiem, A. S.; Vance, T. R.; Roberts, J. L.; Curran, M. A. J.; Moy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Streamflow reconstructions based on paleoclimate proxies provide much longer records than the short instrumental period records on which water resource management plans are currently based. In Australia there is a lack of in-situ high resolution paleoclimate proxy records, but remote proxies with teleconnections to Australian climate have utility in producing streamflow reconstructions. Here we investigate, via a case study for a catchment in eastern Australia, the novel use of an Antarctic ice-core based rainfall reconstruction within a Budyko-framework to reconstruct ∼1000 years of annual streamflow. The resulting streamflow reconstruction captures interannual to decadal variability in the instrumental streamflow, validating both the use of the ice core rainfall proxy record and the Budyko-framework method. In the preinstrumental era the streamflow reconstruction shows longer wet and dry epochs and periods of streamflow variability that are higher than observed in the instrumental era. Importantly, for both the instrumental record and preinstrumental reconstructions, the wet (dry) epochs in the rainfall record are shorter (longer) in the streamflow record and this non-linearity must be considered when inferring hydroclimatic risk or historical water availability directly from rainfall proxy records alone. These insights provide a better understanding of present infrastructure vulnerability in the context of past climate variability for eastern Australia. The streamflow reconstruction presented here also provides a better understanding of the range of hydroclimatic variability possible, and therefore represents a more realistic baseline on which to quantify the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on water security.

The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries(compiler), Kernell G.; With sections by Atkins, J. B.; Hummel, P.R.; Gray, Matthew J.; Dusenbury, R.; Jennings, M.E.; Kirby, W.H.; Riggs, H.C.; Sauer, V.B.; Thomas, W.O.

2007-01-01

The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals, estimates of the probable maximum flood, extrapolation of the 500-year flood when an equation for estimating it is not available, and weighting techniques to improve flood-frequency estimates for gaging stations and ungaged sites on gaged streams. This report describes the regionalization techniques used to develop the equations in NSS and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The report also includes a users manual and a summary of equations available for estimating basin lagtime, which is needed by the program to generate flood hydrographs. The NSS software and accompanying database, and the documentation for the regression equations included in NSS, are available on the Web at http://water.usgs.gov/software/.

Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

2016-04-05

About this volumeMontana StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) application that provides users with access to basin and streamflow characteristics for gaged and ungaged streams in Montana. Montana StreamStats was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Montana Departments of Transportation, Environmental Quality, and Natural Resources and Conservation. The USGS Scientific Investigations Report consists of seven independent but complementary chapters dealing with various aspects of this effort.Chapter A describes the Montana StreamStats application, the basin and streamflow datasets, and provides a brief overview of the streamflow characteristics and regression equations used in the study. Chapters B through E document the datasets, methods, and results of analyses to determine streamflow characteristics, such as peak-flow frequencies, low-flow frequencies, and monthly and annual characteristics, for USGS streamflow-gaging stations in and near Montana. The StreamStats analytical toolsets that allow users to delineate drainage basins and solve regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites in Montana are described in Chapters F and G.

The effects of selective logging on low flows and water yield in a coastal stream in northern California

Treesearch

Elizabeth T. Keppeler

1986-01-01

Abstract - Using a low flow season defined as a function of antecedent precipitation, streamflow data for a 21 year period was analyzed to determine the effects of selective tractor harvesting of second-growth Douglas-fir and redwood forest on the volume, timing, and duration of low flows and annual water yield. Significant increases in streamflow were detected for...

Wavelet-based time series bootstrap model for multidecadal streamflow simulation using climate indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkyihun, Solomon Tassew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith; Lall, Upmanu; Nowak, Kenneth

2016-05-01

A model to generate stochastic streamflow projections conditioned on quasi-oscillatory climate indices such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is presented. Recognizing that each climate index has underlying band-limited components that contribute most of the energy of the signals, we first pursue a wavelet decomposition of the signals to identify and reconstruct these features from annually resolved historical data and proxy based paleoreconstructions of each climate index covering the period from 1650 to 2012. A K-Nearest Neighbor block bootstrap approach is then developed to simulate the total signal of each of these climate index series while preserving its time-frequency structure and marginal distributions. Finally, given the simulated climate signal time series, a K-Nearest Neighbor bootstrap is used to simulate annual streamflow series conditional on the joint state space defined by the simulated climate index for each year. We demonstrate this method by applying it to simulation of streamflow at Lees Ferry gauge on the Colorado River using indices of two large scale climate forcings: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which are known to modulate the Colorado River Basin (CRB) hydrology at multidecadal time scales. Skill in stochastic simulation of multidecadal projections of flow using this approach is demonstrated.

Peak-flow frequency analyses and results based on data through water year 2011 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter C in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

Chapter C of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources, to provide an update of statewide peak-flow frequency analyses and results for Montana. The purpose of this report chapter is to present peak-flow frequency analyses and results for 725 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. The 725 streamflow-gaging stations included in this study represent nearly all streamflowgaging stations in Montana (plus some from adjacent states or Canadian Provinces) that have at least 10 years of peak-flow records through water year 2011. For 29 of the 725 streamflow-gaging stations, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for both unregulated and regulated conditions. Thus, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for a total of 754 analyses. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals.

Analysing streamflow variability and water allocation for sustainable management of water resources in the semi-arid Karkheh river basin, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masih, Ilyas; Ahmad, Mobin-ud-Din; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Turral, Hugh; Karimi, Poolad

This study provides a comprehensive spatio-temporal assessment of the surface water resources of the semi-arid Karkheh basin, Iran, and consequently enables decision makers to work towards a sustainable water development in that region. The analysis is based on the examination of statistical parameters, flow duration characteristics, base flow separation and trend analysis for which data of seven key gauging stations were used for the period of 1961-2001. Additionally, basin level water accounting was carried out for the water year 1993-94. The study shows that observed daily, monthly and annual streamflows are highly variable in space and time within the basin. The streamflows have not been changed significantly at annual scale, but few months have shown significant trends, most notably a decline during May and June and an increase during December and March. The major causes were related to changes in climate, land use and reservoir operations. The study concludes that the water allocations to different sectors were lower than the totally available resources during the study period. However, looking at the high variability of streamflows, changes in climate and land use and ongoing water resources development planning, it will be extremely difficult to meet the demands of all sectors in the future, particularly during dry years.

Regression equations for estimating flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-Year recurrence intervals in Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2004-01-01

Multiple linear-regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitudes of floods in Connecticut for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The equations can be used for nonurban, unregulated stream sites in Connecticut with drainage areas ranging from about 2 to 715 square miles. Flood-frequency data and hydrologic characteristics from 70 streamflow-gaging stations and the upstream drainage basins were used to develop the equations. The hydrologic characteristics?drainage area, mean basin elevation, and 24-hour rainfall?are used in the equations to estimate the magnitude of floods. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations are 31.8, 32.7, 34.4, 35.9, 37.6 and 45.0 percent for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Simplified equations using only one hydrologic characteristic?drainage area?also were developed. The regression analysis is based on generalized least-squares regression techniques. Observed flows (log-Pearson Type III analysis of the annual maximum flows) from five streamflow-gaging stations in urban basins in Connecticut were compared to flows estimated from national three-parameter and seven-parameter urban regression equations. The comparison shows that the three- and seven- parameter equations used in conjunction with the new statewide equations generally provide reasonable estimates of flood flows for urban sites in Connecticut, although a national urban flood-frequency study indicated that the three-parameter equations significantly underestimated flood flows in many regions of the country. Verification of the accuracy of the three-parameter or seven-parameter national regression equations using new data from Connecticut stations was beyond the scope of this study. A technique for calculating flood flows at streamflow-gaging stations using a weighted average also is described. Two estimates of flood flows?one estimate based on the log-Pearson Type III analyses of the annual maximum flows at the gaging station, and the other estimate from the regression equation?are weighted together based on the years of record at the gaging station and the equivalent years of record value determined from the regression. Weighted averages of flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are tabulated for the 70 streamflow-gaging stations used in the regression analysis. Generally, weighted averages give the most accurate estimate of flood flows at gaging stations. An evaluation of the Connecticut's streamflow-gaging network was performed to determine whether the spatial coverage and range of geographic and hydrologic conditions are adequately represented for transferring flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites. Fifty-one of 54 stations in the current (2004) network support one or more flood needs of federal, state, and local agencies. Twenty-five of 54 stations in the current network are considered high-priority stations by the U.S. Geological Survey because of their contribution to the longterm understanding of floods, and their application for regionalflood analysis. Enhancements to the network to improve overall effectiveness for regionalization can be made by increasing the spatial coverage of gaging stations, establishing stations in regions of the state that are not well-represented, and adding stations in basins with drainage area sizes not represented. Additionally, the usefulness of the network for characterizing floods can be maintained and improved by continuing operation at the current stations because flood flows can be more accurately estimated at stations with continuous, long-term record.

Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948-2006

Treesearch

C. H. Luce; Z. A. Holden

2009-01-01

Much of the discussion on climate change and water in the western United States centers on decreased snowpack and earlier spring runoff. Although increasing variability in annual flows has been noted, the nature of those changes is largely unexplored. We tested for trends in the distribution of annual runoff using quantile regression at 43 gages in the Pacific...

Streamflow and nutrient data for the Yazoo River below Steele Bayou near Long Lake, Mississippi, 1996-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runner, Michael S.; Turnipseed, D. Phil; Coupe, Richard H.

2002-01-01

Increased nutrient loading to the Gulf of Mexico from off-continent flux has been identified as contributing to the increase in the areal extent of the low dissolved-oxygen zone that develops annually off the Louisiana and Texas coast. The proximity of the Yazoo River Basin in northwestern Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico, and the intensive agricultural activities in the basin have led to speculation that the Yazoo River Basin contributes a disproportionate amount of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Mississippi River and ultimately to the Gulf of Mexico. An empirical measurement of the flux of nitrogen and phosphorus from the Yazoo Basin has not been possible due to the hydrology of the lower Yazoo River Basin. Streamflow for the Yazoo River below Steele Bayou is affected by backwater from the Mississippi River. Flow at the gage is non-uniform and varying, with bi-directional and reverse flows possible. Streamflow was computed by using remote sensing and acoustic and conventional discharge and velocity measurement techniques. Streamflow from the Yazoo River for the 1996-2000 period accounted for 2.8 percent of the flow of the Mississippi River for the same period. Water samples from the Yazoo River were collected from February 1996 through December 2000 and were analyzed for total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, and orthophosphorus as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. These data were used to compute annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus discharged from the Yazoo River for the period 1996-2000. Annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus were calculated by two methods. The first method used multivariate regression and the second method multiplied the mean annual concentration by the total annual flow. Load estimates based on the product of the mean annual concentration and the total annual flow were within the 95 percent confidence interval for the load calculated by multivariate regression in 10 of 20 cases. The Yazoo River loads, compared to average annual loads in the Mississippi River, indicated that the Yazoo River was contributing 1.4 percent of the total nitrogen load, 0.7 percent of the nitrate load, 3.4 percent of the total phosphorus load, and 1.6 percent of the orthophosphorus load during 1996 - 2000. The total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphorus loads in the Yazoo River Basin were less than expected, whereas the total phosphorus load was slightly higher than expected based on discharge.

Historical changes in annual peak flows in Maine and implications for flood-frequency analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2010-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges, culverts, and other structures that are in or near streams (fig. 1 for example), it is necessary to determine the magnitude of peak streamflows such as the 100-year flow. Flood-frequency analyses use statistical methods to compute peak flows for selected recurrence intervals (100 years, for example). The recurrence interval is the average number of years between peak flows that are equal to or greater than a specified peak flow. Floodfrequency analyses are based on annual peak flows at a stream. It has long been assumed that annual peak streamflows are stationary over very long periods of time, except in river basins subject to urbanization, regulation, and other direct human activities. Stationarity is the concept that natural systems fluctuate within an envelope of variability that does not change over time (Milly and others, 2008). Because of the potential effects of global warming on peak flows, the assumption of peak-flow stationarity has recently been questioned (Milly and others, 2008). Maine has many streamgaging stations with 50 to 105 years of recorded annual peak streamflows. This long-term record has been tested for historical flood-frequency stationarity, to provide some insight into future flood frequency (Hodgkins, 2010). This fact sheet, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), provides a partial summary of the results of the study by Hodgkins (2010).

Decadal-scale export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment from the Susquehanna River basin, USA: Analysis and synthesis of temporal and spatial patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, Qian; Ball, William P; Moyer, Douglas L

2016-09-01

The export of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) is a long-standing management concern for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of nutrient and sediment loads over the last three decades at multiple locations in the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), Chesapeake's largest tributary watershed. Sediment and nutrient riverine loadings, including both dissolved and particulate fractions, have generally declined at all sites upstream of Conowingo Dam (non-tidal SRB outlet). Period-of-record declines in riverine yield are generally smaller than those in source input, suggesting the possibility of legacy contributions. Consistent with other watershed studies, these results reinforce the importance of considering lag time between the implementation of management actions and achievement of river quality improvement. Whereas flow-normalized loadings for particulate species have increased recently below Conowingo Reservoir, those for upstream sites have declined, thus substantiating conclusions from prior studies about decreased reservoir trapping efficiency. In regard to streamflow effects, statistically significant log-linear relationships between annual streamflow and annual constituent load suggest the dominance of hydrological control on the inter-annual variability of constituent export. Concentration-discharge relationships revealed general chemostasis and mobilization effects for dissolved and particulate species, respectively, both suggesting transport-limitation conditions. In addition to affecting annual export rates, streamflow has also modulated the relative importance of dissolved and particulate fractions, as reflected by its negative correlations with dissolved P/total P, dissolved N/total N, particulate P/SS, and total N/total P ratios. For land-use effects, period-of-record median annual yields of N, P, and SS all correlate positively with the area fraction of non-forested land but negatively with that of forested land under all hydrological conditions. Overall, this work has informed understanding with respect to four major factors affecting constituent export (i.e., source input, reservoir modulation, streamflow, and land use) and demonstrated the value of long-term river monitoring. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flood of June 22-24, 2006, in North-Central Ohio, With Emphasis on the Cuyahoga River Near Independence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, James M.; Ebner, Andrew D.; Koltun, G.F.; Astifan, Brian M.

2007-01-01

Heavy rains caused severe flooding on June 22-24, 2006, and damaged approximately 4,580 homes and 48 businesses in Cuyahoga County. Damage estimates in Cuyahoga County for the two days of flooding exceed $47 million; statewide damage estimates exceed $150 million. Six counties (Cuyahoga, Erie, Huron, Lucas, Sandusky, and Stark) in northeast Ohio were declared Federal disaster areas. One death, in Lorain County, was attributed to the flooding. The peak streamflow of 25,400 cubic feet per second and corresponding peak gage height of 23.29 feet were the highest recorded at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging station Cuyahoga River at Independence (04208000) since the gaging station began operation in 1922, exceeding the previous peak streamflow of 24,800 cubic feet per second that occurred on January 22, 1959. An indirect calculation of the peak streamflow was made by use of a step-backwater model because all roads leading to the gaging station were inundated during the flood and field crews could not reach the station to make a direct measurement. Because of a statistically significant and persistent positive trend in the annual-peak-streamflow time series for the Cuyahoga River at Independence, a method was developed and applied to detrend the annual-peak-streamflow time series prior to the traditional log-Pearson Type III flood-frequency analysis. Based on this analysis, the recurrence interval of the computed peak streamflow was estimated to be slightly less than 100 years. Peak-gage-height data, peak-streamflow data, and recurrence-interval estimates for the June 22-24, 2006, flood are tabulated for the Cuyahoga River at Independence and 10 other USGS gaging stations in north-central Ohio. Because flooding along the Cuyahoga River near Independence and Valley View was particularly severe, a study was done to document the peak water-surface profile during the flood from approximately 2 miles downstream from the USGS streamflow-gaging station at Independence to approximately 2 miles upstream from the gaging station. High-water marks were identified and flagged in the field. Third-order-accuracy surveys were used to determine elevations of the high-water marks, and the data were tabulated and plotted.

CEREF: A hybrid data-driven model for forecasting annual streamflow from a socio-hydrological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongbo; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yinghao

2016-09-01

Hydrological forecasting is complicated by flow regime alterations in a coupled socio-hydrologic system, encountering increasingly non-stationary, nonlinear and irregular changes, which make decision support difficult for future water resources management. Currently, many hybrid data-driven models, based on the decomposition-prediction-reconstruction principle, have been developed to improve the ability to make predictions of annual streamflow. However, there exist many problems that require further investigation, the chief among which is the direction of trend components decomposed from annual streamflow series and is always difficult to ascertain. In this paper, a hybrid data-driven model was proposed to capture this issue, which combined empirical mode decomposition (EMD), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and external forces (EF) variable, also called the CEREF model. The hybrid model employed EMD for decomposition and RBFNN for intrinsic mode function (IMF) forecasting, and determined future trend component directions by regression with EF as basin water demand representing the social component in the socio-hydrologic system. The Wuding River basin was considered for the case study, and two standard statistical measures, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to evaluate the performance of CEREF model and compare with other models: the autoregressive (AR), RBFNN and EMD-RBFNN. Results indicated that the CEREF model had lower RMSE and MAE statistics, 42.8% and 7.6%, respectively, than did other models, and provided a superior alternative for forecasting annual runoff in the Wuding River basin. Moreover, the CEREF model can enlarge the effective intervals of streamflow forecasting compared to the EMD-RBFNN model by introducing the water demand planned by the government department to improve long-term prediction accuracy. In addition, we considered the high-frequency component, a frequent subject of concern in EMD-based forecasting, and results showed that removing high-frequency component is an effective measure to improve forecasting precision and is suggested for use with the CEREF model for better performance. Finally, the study concluded that the CEREF model can be used to forecast non-stationary annual streamflow change as a co-evolution of hydrologic and social systems with better accuracy. Also, the modification about removing high-frequency can further improve the performance of the CEREF model. It should be noted that the CEREF model is beneficial for data-driven hydrologic forecasting in complex socio-hydrologic systems, and as a simple data-driven socio-hydrologic forecasting model, deserves more attention.

Historical Changes in Precipitation and Streamflow in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin, 1915-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Aichele, Stephen S.

2007-01-01

The total amount of water in the Great Lakes Basin is important in the long-term allocation of water to human use and to riparian and aquatic ecosystems. The water available during low-flow periods is particularly important because the short-term demands for the water can exceed the supply. Precipitation increased over the last 90 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Total annual precipitation increased by 4.5 inches from 1915 to 2004 (based on the average of 34 U.S. Historical Climatology Network stations), 3.5 inches from 1935 to 2004 (average of 34 stations), and 4.2 inches from 1955 to 2004 (average of 37 stations). Variability in precipitation from year to year was large, but there were numerous years with relatively low precipitation in the 1930s and 1960s and many years with relatively high precipitation after about 1970. Annual runoff increased over the last 50 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Mean annual runoff increased by 2.6 inches, based on the average of 43 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations from 1955 to 2004 on streams that were relatively free of human influences. Variability in runoff from year to year was large, but on average runoff was relatively low from 1955 to about 1970 and relatively high from about 1970 to 1995. Runoff increased at all stations in the basin except in and near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where relatively small runoff decreases occurred. Changes in annual runoff for the 16 stations with data from 1935 to 2004 were similar to the changes from 1955 to 2004. The mean annual 7-day low runoff (the lowest annual average of 7 consecutive days of runoff) increased from 1955 to 2004 by 0.048 cubic feet per second per square mile based on the average of 27 stations. Runoff in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin from 1955 to 2004 increased for all months except April. November through January and July precipitation and runoff increased by similar amounts. There were differences between precipitation and runoff changes for February, March, and April, which were likely due to lower ratios of snowfall to rain and earlier snowmelt runoff in recent years. Increases in precipitation were larger than increases in runoff for May, June, August, September, and October. Some of this difference could be due to the different locations of the precipitation and streamflow stations in the basin. Part of the difference may be explained by changes in evapotranspiration. Some of the few highly urbanized and highly regulated stations analyzed in this report had larger increases in annual 7-day low-runoff from 1955 to 2004 than any of the stations in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin that are on streams relatively free of human influences. This demonstrates the human influence over time on very low streamflows. Changes-even over periods as long as 90 years-can be part of longer cycles. Previous studies of Great Lakes Basin precipitation and St. Lawrence River streamflow, using data from the mid-1800s to the late-1900s, showed low precipitation and streamflow in the late 1800s and early 1900s relative to earlier and later periods.

Simulation of ground-water flow and evaluation of water-management alternatives in the Assabet River Basin, Eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeSimone, Leslie A.

2004-01-01

Water-supply withdrawals and wastewater disposal in the Assabet River Basin in eastern Massachusetts alter the flow and water quality in the basin. Wastewater discharges and stream-flow depletion from ground-water withdrawals adversely affect water quality in the Assabet River, especially during low-flow months (late summer) and in headwater areas. Streamflow depletion also contributes to loss of aquatic habitat in tributaries to the river. In 19972001, water-supply withdrawals averaged 9.9 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Wastewater discharges to the Assabet River averaged 11 Mgal/d and included about 5.4 Mgal/d that originated from sources outside of the basin. The effects of current (2004) and future withdrawals and discharges on water resources in the basin were investigated in this study. Steady-state and transient ground-water-flow models were developed, by using MODFLOW-2000, to simulate flow in the surficial glacial deposits and underlying crystalline bedrock in the basin. The transient model simulated the average annual cycle at dynamic equilibrium in monthly intervals. The models were calibrated to 19972001 conditions of water withdrawals, wastewater discharges, water levels, and nonstorm streamflow (base flow plus wastewater discharges). Total flow through the simulated hydrologic system averaged 195 Mgal/d annually. Recharge from precipitation and ground-water discharge to streams were the dominant inflow and outflow, respectively. Evapotranspiration of ground water from wetlands and non-wetland areas also were important losses from the hydrologic system. Water-supply withdrawals and infiltration to sewers averaged 5 and 1.3 percent, respectively, of total annual out-flows and were larger components (12 percent in September) of the hydrologic system during low-flow months. Water budgets for individual tributary and main stem subbasins identified areas, such as the Fort Meadow Brook and the Assabet Main Stem Upper subbasins, where flows resulting from anthropo-genic activities were relatively large percentages, compared to other subbasins, (more than 20 percent in September) of total out-flows. Wastewater flows in the Assabet River accounted for 55, 32, and 20 percent of total nonstorm streamflow (base flow plus wastewater discharge) out of the Assabet Main Stem Upper, Middle, and Lower subbasins, respectively, in an average September. The ground-water-flow models were used to evaluate water-management alternatives by simulating hypothetical scenarios of altered withdrawals and discharges. A scenario that included no water management quantified nonstorm stream-flows that would result without withdrawals, discharges, septic-system return flow, or consumptive use. Tributary flows in this scenario increased in most subbasins by 2 to 44 percent relative to 19972001 conditions. The increases resulted mostly from variable combinations of decreased withdrawals and decreased infiltration to sewers. Average annual nonstorm streamflow in the Assabet River decreased slightly in this scenario, by 2 to 3 percent annually, because gains in ground-water discharge were offset by the elimination of wastewater discharges. A second scenario quantified the effects of increasing withdrawals and discharges to currently permitted levels. In this simulation, average annual tributary flows decreased in most subbasins, by less than 1 to 10 percent relative to 19972001 conditions. In the Assabet River, flows increased slightly, 1 to 5 percent annually, and the percentage of wastewater in the river increased to 69, 42, and 27 percent of total nonstorm streamflow out of the Assabet Main Stem Upper, Middle, and Lower subbasins, respectively, in an average September. A third set of scenarios quantified the effects of ground-water discharge of wastewater at four hypothetical sites, while maintaining 19972000 wastewater discharges to the Assabet River. Wastewater, discharged at a constant rate that varied among sites from 0.3 to 1

Sources and loads of nutrients in the South Platte River, Colorado and Nebraska, 1994-95

USGS Publications Warehouse

Litke, D.W.

1996-01-01

The South Platte River Basin was one of 20 river basins selected in 1991 for investigation as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water- Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Nationwide, nutrients have been identified as one of the primary nationwide water-quality concerns and are of particular interest in the South Platte River Basin where nutrient concentrations are large compared to concentrations in other NAWQA river basins. This report presents estimates of the magnitude of nutrient-source inputs to the South Platte River Basin, describes nutrient concen- trations and loads in the South Platte River during different seasons, and presents comparisons of nutrient inputs to instream nutrient loads. Annual nutrient inputs to the basin were estimated to be 306,000 tons of nitrogen and 41,000 tons of phosphorus. The principal nutrient sources were wastewater-treatment plants, fertilizer and manure applications, and atmospheric deposition. To characterize nutrient concentrations and loads in the South Platte River during different seasons, five nutrient synoptic samplings were conducted during 1994 and 1995. Upstream from Denver, Colorado, during April 1994 and January 1995, total nitrogen concentrations were less than 2 milligrams per liter (mg/L), and total phosphorus concentrations were less than 0.2 mg/L. The water in the river at this point was derived mostly from forested land in the mountains west of Denver. Total nutrient concentrations increased through the Denver metropolitan area, and concentration peaks occurred just downstream from each of Denver's largest wastewater-treatment plants with maximum concentrations of 13.6 mg/L total nitrogen and 2.4 mg/L total phosphorus. Nutrient concen- concentrations generally decreased downstream from Denver. Upstream from Denver during April 1994 and January 1995, total nitrogen loads were less than 1,000 pounds per day (lb/d), and total phosphorus loads were less than 125 lb/d. Total nutrient loads increased through the Denver metropolitan area, and load peaks occurred just downstream from each of Denver's largest wastewater-treatment plants, with a maximum load of 14,000 lb/d total nitrogen and 2,300 lb/d total phosphorus. In April 1994, nutrient loads generally decreased from Henderson, Colorado, to North Platte, Nebraska. In January 1995, however, nutrient loads increased from Henderson to Kersey, Colorado (maximum loads of 31,000 lb/d total nitrogen and 3,000 lb/d total phosphorus), and then decreased from Kersey to North Platte. Seasonal nutrient loads primarily were dependent on streamflow. Total nitrogen loads were largest in June 1994 and January 1995 when streamflows also were largest. During June, streamflow was large, but nitrogen concentrations were small, which indicated that snowmelt runoff diluted the available supply of nitrogen. Total phosphorus loads were largest in June, when streamflow and phosphorus concentrations were large, which indicated an additional source of phosphorus during snowmelt runoff. Streamflow along the South Platte River was smallest in April and August 1994, and nutrient loads also were smallest during these months. The downstream pattern for nutrient loads did not vary much by season. Loads were large at Henderson, decreased between Henderson and Kersey, and usually were largest at Kersey. The magnitude of the decrease in loads between Henderson and Kersey varied between synoptics and was dependent on the amount of water removed by irrigation ditches. Nutrient loads leaving the basin were very small compared to the estimated total nutrient inputs to the basin. Streamflow balances indicated that the South Platte River is a gaining river throughout much of its length; streamflow-balance residuals were as large as 15 cubic feet per second per mile. Nutrient-load balances indicated that increases in river nitrate loads were, in some places, due to nitrification and, elsewhere, were due to the influx of nitrate-enriched ground water to

Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Julie A. Vano,; Bradley Udall,; Cayan, Daniel; Jonathan T Overpeck,; Brekke, Levi D.; Das, Tapash; Hartmann, Holly C.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Hoerling, Martin P; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morino, Kiyomi; Webb, Robert S.; Werner, Kevin; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2014-01-01

The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.

Effect of Tree-to-Shrub Type Conversion in Lower Montane Forests of the Sierra Nevada (USA) on Streamflow

PubMed Central

Tague, Christina L.; Moritz, Max A.

2016-01-01

Higher global temperatures and increased levels of disturbance are contributing to greater tree mortality in many forest ecosystems. These same drivers can also limit forest regeneration, leading to vegetation type conversion. For the Sierra Nevada of California, little is known about how type conversion may affect streamflow, a critical source of water supply for urban, agriculture and environmental purposes. In this paper, we examined the effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion, in combination with climate change, on streamflow in two lower montane forest watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. A spatially distributed ecohydrologic model was used to simulate changes in streamflow, evaporation, and transpiration following type conversion, with an explicit focus on the role of vegetation size and aspect. Model results indicated that streamflow may show negligible change or small decreases following type conversion when the difference between tree and shrub leaf areas is small, partly due to the higher stomatal conductivity and the deep rooting depth of shrubs. In contrast, streamflow may increase when post-conversion shrubs have a small leaf area relative to trees. Model estimates also suggested that vegetation change could have a greater impact on streamflow magnitude than the direct hydrologic impacts of increased temperatures. Temperature increases, however, may have a greater impact on streamflow timing. Tree-to-shrub type conversion increased streamflow only marginally during dry years (annual precipitation < 800 mm), with most streamflow change observed during wetter years. These modeling results underscore the importance of accounting for changes in vegetation communities to accurately characterize future hydrologic regimes for the Sierra Nevada. PMID:27575592

Effect of Tree-to-Shrub Type Conversion in Lower Montane Forests of the Sierra Nevada (USA) on Streamflow.

PubMed

Bart, Ryan R; Tague, Christina L; Moritz, Max A

2016-01-01

Higher global temperatures and increased levels of disturbance are contributing to greater tree mortality in many forest ecosystems. These same drivers can also limit forest regeneration, leading to vegetation type conversion. For the Sierra Nevada of California, little is known about how type conversion may affect streamflow, a critical source of water supply for urban, agriculture and environmental purposes. In this paper, we examined the effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion, in combination with climate change, on streamflow in two lower montane forest watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. A spatially distributed ecohydrologic model was used to simulate changes in streamflow, evaporation, and transpiration following type conversion, with an explicit focus on the role of vegetation size and aspect. Model results indicated that streamflow may show negligible change or small decreases following type conversion when the difference between tree and shrub leaf areas is small, partly due to the higher stomatal conductivity and the deep rooting depth of shrubs. In contrast, streamflow may increase when post-conversion shrubs have a small leaf area relative to trees. Model estimates also suggested that vegetation change could have a greater impact on streamflow magnitude than the direct hydrologic impacts of increased temperatures. Temperature increases, however, may have a greater impact on streamflow timing. Tree-to-shrub type conversion increased streamflow only marginally during dry years (annual precipitation < 800 mm), with most streamflow change observed during wetter years. These modeling results underscore the importance of accounting for changes in vegetation communities to accurately characterize future hydrologic regimes for the Sierra Nevada.

Streamflow gain/loss in the Republican River basin, Nebraska, March 1989

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Michaela R.; Stanton, Jennifer S.; Cornwall, James F.; Landon, Matthew K.

2002-01-01

This arc and point data set contains streamflow measurement sites and reaches indicating streamflow gain or loss under base-flow conditions along the Republican River and tributaries in Nebraska during March 21 to 22, 1989 (Boohar and others, 1990). These measurements were made to obtain data on ground-water/surface-water interaction. Flow was visually observed to be zero, was measured, or was estimated at 136 sites. The measurements were made on the main stem of the Republican River and all flowing tributaries that enter the Republican River above Swanson Reservoir and parts of the Frenchman, Red Willow, and Medicine Creek drainages in the Nebraska part of the Republican River Basin. Tributaries were followed upstream until the first road crossing where zero flow was encountered. For selected streams, points of zero flow upstream of the first zero flow site were also checked. Streamflow gain or loss for each stream reach was calculated by subtracting the streamflow values measured at the upstream end of the reach and values for contributing tributaries from the downstream value. The data obtained reflected base-flow conditions suitable for estimating streamflow gains and losses for stream reaches between sites. This digital data set was created by manually plotting locations of streamflow measurements. These points were used to designate stream-reach segments to calculate gain/loss per river mile. Reach segments were created by manually splitting the lines from a 1:250,000 hydrography data set (Soenksen and others, 1999) at every location where the streams were measured. Each stream-reach segment between streamflow-measurement sites was assigned a unique reach number. All other lines in the hydrography data set without reach numbers were omitted. This data set was created to archive the calculated streamflow gains and losses of selected streams in part of the Republican River Basin, Nebraska in March 1989, and make the data available for use with geographic information systems (GIS). If measurement sites are used separately from reaches, the maximum scale of 1:100,000 should not be exceeded. When used in conjunction with the reach segments, the maximum scale should not exceed 1:250,000.

Streamflow statistical summaries for Colorado streams through September 30, 1975: Volume 1: Missouri River, Arkansas River, and Rio Grande Basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petsch, Harold E.

1979-01-01

Statistical summaries of daily streamflow data for 246 stations east of the Continental Divide in Colorado and adjacent States are presented in this report. Duration tables, high-flow sequence tables, and low-flow sequence tables provide information about daily mean discharge. The mean, variance, standard deviation, skewness, and coefficient of variation are provided for monthly and annual flows. Percentages of average flow are provided for monthly flows and first-order serial-correlation coefficients are provided for annual flows. The text explains the nature and derivation of the data and illustrates applications of the tabulated information by examples. The data may be used by agencies and individuals engaged in water studies. (USGS)

The contribution of glacier melt to streamflow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schaner, Neil; Voisin, Nathalie; Nijssen, Bart

2012-09-13

Ongoing and projected future changes in glacier extent and water storage globally have lead to concerns about the implications for water supplies. However, the current magnitude of glacier contributions to river runoff is not well known, nor is the population at risk to future glacier changes. We estimate an upper bound on glacier melt contribution to seasonal streamflow by computing the energy balance of glaciers globally. Melt water quantities are computed as a fraction of total streamflow simulated using a hydrology model and the melt fraction is tracked down the stream network. In general, our estimates of the glacier meltmore » contribution to streamflow are lower than previously published values. Nonetheless, we find that globally an estimated 225 (36) million people live in river basins where maximum seasonal glacier melt contributes at least 10% (25%) of streamflow, mostly in the High Asia region.« less

An integrated modeling approach for estimating hydrologic responses to future urbanization and climate changes in a mixed-use midwestern watershed.

PubMed

Sunde, Michael G; He, Hong S; Hubbart, Jason A; Urban, Michael A

2018-08-15

Future urban development and climatic changes are likely to affect hydrologic regimes in many watersheds. Quantifying potential water regime changes caused by these stressors is therefore crucial for enabling decision makers to develop viable environmental management strategies. This study presents an approach that integrates mid-21st century impervious surface growth estimates derived from the Imperviousness Change Analysis Tool with downscaled climate model projections and a hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool to characterize potential water regime changes in a mixed-use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results for the climate change only scenario showed annual streamflow and runoff decreases (-10.7% and -9.2%) and evapotranspiration increases (+6.8%), while results from the urbanization only scenario showed streamflow and runoff increases (+3.8% and +9.3%) and evapotranspiration decreases (-2.4%). Results for the combined impacts scenario suggested that climatic changes could have a larger impact than urbanization on annual streamflow, (overall decrease of -6.1%), and could largely negate surface runoff increases caused by urbanization. For the same scenario, climatic changes exerted a stronger influence on annual evapotranspiration than urbanization (+3.9%). Seasonal results indicated that the relative influences of urbanization and climatic changes vary seasonally. Climatic changes most greatly influenced streamflow and runoff during winter and summer, and evapotranspiration during summer. During some seasons the directional change for hydrologic processes matched for both stressors. This work presented a practicable approach for investigating the relative influences of mid-21st century urbanization and climatic changes on the hydrology of a representative mixed-use watershed, adding to a limited body of research on this topic. This was done using a transferrable approach that can be adapted for watersheds in other regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty analysis in geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment

DOE PAGES

Pasha, M. Fayzul K.; Yeasmin, Dilruba; Saetern, Sen; ...

2016-03-30

Hydraulic head and mean annual streamflow, two main input parameters in hydropower resource assessment, are not measured at every point along the stream. Translation and interpolation are used to derive these parameters, resulting in uncertainties. This study estimates the uncertainties and their effects on model output parameters: the total potential power and the number of potential locations (stream-reach). These parameters are quantified through Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) linking with a geospatial merit matrix based hydropower resource assessment (GMM-HRA) Model. The methodology is applied to flat, mild, and steep terrains. Results show that the uncertainty associated with the hydraulic head ismore » within 20% for mild and steep terrains, and the uncertainty associated with streamflow is around 16% for all three terrains. Output uncertainty increases as input uncertainty increases. However, output uncertainty is around 10% to 20% of the input uncertainty, demonstrating the robustness of the GMM-HRA model. Hydraulic head is more sensitive to output parameters in steep terrain than in flat and mild terrains. Furthermore, mean annual streamflow is more sensitive to output parameters in flat terrain.« less

Simulation of rainfall-runoff response in mined and unmined watersheds in coal areas of West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puente, Celso; Atkins, John T.

1989-01-01

Meteorologic and hydrologic data from five small watersheds in the coal areas of West Virginia were used to calibrate and test the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System for simulating streamflow under various climatic and land-use conditions. Three of the basins--Horsecamp Run, Gilmer Run, and Collison Creek--are primarily forested and relatively undisturbed. The remaining basins--Drawdy Creek and Brier Creek-are extensively mined, both surface and underground above stream drainage level. Low-flow measurements at numerous synoptic sites in the mined basins indicate that coal mining has substantially altered the hydrologic system of each basin. The effects of mining on streamflow that were identified are (1) reduced base flow in stream segments underlain by underground mines, (2) increased base flow in streams that are downdip and stratigraphically below the elevation of the mined coal beds, and (3) interbasin transfer of ground water through underground mines. These changes probably reflect increased permeability of surface rocks caused by subsidence fractures associated with collapsed underground mines in the basin. Such fractures would increase downward percolation of precipitation, surface and subsurface flow, and ground-water flow to deeper rocks or to underground mine workings. Model simulations of the water budgets for the unmined basins during the 1972-73 water years indicate that total annual runoff averaged 60 percent of average annual precipitation; annual evapotranspiration losses averaged 40 percent of average annual precipitation. Of the total annual runoff, approximately 91 percent was surface and subsurface runoff and 9 percent was groundwater discharge. Changes in storage in the soil zone and in the subsurface and ground-water reservoirs in the basins were negligible. In contrast, water-budget simulations for the mined basins indicate significant differences in annual recharge and in total annual runoff. Model simulations of the water budget for Drawdy Creek basin indicate that total annual runoff during 1972-73 averaged only 43 percent of average annual precipitation--the lowest of all study basins; annual evapotranspiration losses averaged 49 percent, and interbasin transfer of ground-water losses averaged about 8 percent. Of the total annual runoff, approximately 74 percent was surface and subsurface flow and 26 percent was ground-water discharge. The low total annual runoff at Drawdy Creek probably reflects increased recharge of precipitation and surface and subsurface flow losses to ground water. Most of the increase in ground-water storage is, in turn, lost to a ground-water sink--namely, interbasin transfer of ground water by gravity drainage and (or) mine pumpage from underground mines that extend to adjacent basins. Hypothetical mining situations were posed for model analysis to determine the effects of increased mining on streamflow in the mined basins. Results of model simulations indicate that streamflow characteristics, the water budget, and the seasonal distribution of streamflow would be significantly modified in response to an increase in mining in the basins. Simulations indicate that (1) total annual runoff in the basins would decrease because of increased surface- and subsurface-flow losses and increased recharge of precipitation to ground water (these losses would tend to reduce medium to high flows mainly during winter and spring when losses would be greatest), (2) extreme high flows in response to intense rainstorms would be negligibly affected, regardless of the magnitude of mining in the basins, (3) ground-water discharge also would decrease during winter and spring, but the amount and duration of low flows during summer and fall would substantially increase in response to increased ground-water storage in rocks and in underground mines, and (4) the increase in ground-water storage in the basins would be depleted, mostly by increased losses to a grou

Water resources data for California water year 1994. Volume 1. Southern Great Basin from Mexican border to Mono Lake basin, and Pacific Slope basins from Tijuana River to Santa Maria river. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1993-30 September 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hayes, P.D.; Agajanian, J.A.; Rockwell, G.L.

1995-03-01

Water resources data for the 1994 water year for California consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage and contents in lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality in wells. Volume 1 contains (1) discharge records for 143 streamflow-gaging stations, 15 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations; (2) stage and contents records for 20 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water quality records for 19 streamflow-gaging stations and 2 partial-record stations; and (4) precipitation records for 8 stations.

Continuous tidal streamflow, water level, and specific conductance data for Union Creek and the Little Back, Middle, and Front Rivers, Savannah River Estuary, November 2008 to March 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lanier, Timothy H.; Conrads, Paul

2010-01-01

In the Water Resource Development Act of 1999, the U.S. Congress authorized the deepening of the Savannah Harbor. Additional studies were then identified by the Georgia Ports Authority and other local and regional stakeholders to determine and fully describe the potential environmental effects of deepening the channel. One need that was identified was the validation of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model developed to evaluate mitigation scenarios for a potential harbor deepening and the effects on the Savannah River estuary. The streamflow in the estuary is very complex due to reversing tidal flows, interconnections of streams and tidal creeks, and the daily flooding and draining of the marshes. The model was calibrated using very limited streamflow data and no continuous streamflow measurements. To better characterize the streamflow dynamics and mass transport of the estuary, two index-velocity sites were instrumented with continuous acoustic velocity, water level, and specific conductance sensors on the Little Back and Middle Rivers for the 5-month period of November 2008 through March 2009. During the same period, a third acoustic velocity meter was installed on the Front River just downstream from U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging station 02198920 (Savannah River at GA 25, at Port Wentworth, Georgia) where water level and specific conductance data were being collected. A fourth index-velocity site was instrumented with continuous acoustic velocity, water level, and specific conductance sensors on Union Creek for a 2-month period starting in November 2008. In addition to monitoring the tidal cycles, streamflow measurements were made at the four index-velocity sites to develop ratings to compute continuous discharge for each site. The maximum flood (incoming) and ebb (outgoing) tides measured on Little Back River were –4,570 and 7,990 cubic feet per second, respectively. On Middle River, the maximum flood and ebb tides measured were –9,630 and 13,600 cubic feet per second, respectively. On Front River, the maximum flood and ebb tides were –34,500 and 43,700 cubic feet per second, respectively; and on Union Creek, the maximum flood and ebb tides were –2,390 and 4,610 cubic feet per second, respectively. During the 5-month instrumentation deployment, computed tidal streamflows on Little Back River ranged from –7,820 to 9,600 cubic feet per second for the flood and ebb tides, respectively. On Middle River, the computed tidal streamflows ranged from –17,500 to 22,500 cubic feet per second for the flood and ebb tides, respectively. The computed tidal streamflows on Front River ranged from –78,900 to 87,200 cubic feet per second, and from –3,850 to 6,130 cubic feet per second on Union Creek for the flood and ebb tides, respectively. The streamgages on the Little Back, Middle, and Front Rivers have continued in operation following the initial 5-month deployment.

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model accurately simulated streamflow at four of six uncalibrated sites within the basin. Overall, there was good agreement between simulated and measured seasonal and annual volumes throughout the basin for calibration and validation sites. The calibration period ranged from 0.2 to 20.8 percent difference, and the validation period ranged from 0.0 to 19.5 percent difference across all seasons and total annual runoff. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model tended to underestimate lower streamflows compared to the observed streamflow values. This is an indication that the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling model needs more detailed groundwater and storage information to properly model the low-flow conditions in the Cedar River Basin.

Streamflow statistics for development of water rights claims for the Jarbidge Wild and Scenic River, Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness, Idaho, 2013-14: a supplement to Scientific Investigations Report 2013-5212

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Molly S.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), estimated streamflow statistics for stream segments designated “Wild,” “Scenic,” or “Recreational” under the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System in the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness in southwestern Idaho. The streamflow statistics were used by the BLM to develop and file a draft, federal reserved water right claim to protect federally designated “outstanding remarkable values” in the Jarbidge River. The BLM determined that the daily mean streamflow equaled or exceeded 20, 50, and 80 percent of the time during bimonthly periods (two periods per month) and the bankfull (66.7-percent annual exceedance probability) streamflow are important thresholds for maintaining outstanding remarkable values. Although streamflow statistics for the Jarbidge River below Jarbidge, Nevada (USGS 13162225) were published previously in 2013 and used for the draft water right claim, the BLM and USGS have since recognized the need to refine streamflow statistics given the approximate 40 river mile distance and intervening tributaries between the original point of estimation (USGS 13162225) and at the mouth of the Jarbidge River, which is the downstream end of the Wild and Scenic River segment. A drainage-area-ratio method was used in 2013 to estimate bimonthly exceedance probability streamflow statistics at the mouth of the Jarbidge River based on available streamgage data on the Jarbidge and East Fork Jarbidge Rivers. The resulting bimonthly streamflow statistics were further adjusted using a scaling factor calculated from a water balance on streamflow statistics calculated for the Bruneau and East Fork Bruneau Rivers and Sheep Creek. The final, adjusted bimonthly exceedance probability and bankfull streamflow statistics compared well with available verification datasets (including discrete streamflow measurements made at the mouth of the Jarbidge River) and are considered the best available estimates for streamflow statistics in the Jarbidge Wild and Scenic River segment.

Streamflow and water-quality trends of the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, northern and central New Mexico, water years 1985 to 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langman, Jeff B.; Nolan, Emma O.

2005-01-01

The City of Albuquerque plans to divert San Juan-Chama Project water from the Rio Grande for potable water use. This report examines streamflow and water-quality trends in the Rio Chama and the Rio Grande for water years 1985 to 2002 following the implementation of reservoir storage agreements in northern and central New Mexico. Streamflow/water-quality stations used for this study include the Rio Grande stations of Taos, Otowi, San Felipe, and Albuquerque and the Rio Chama station of Chamita. Water years 1985 to 2002 were a period of larger than average precipitation and streamflow compared to the stations. historical averages. Annual precipitation and streamflow trended downward during the study period because of a drought during 1999 to 2002. Streamflow in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande was divided into three distinct seasonal periods that corresponded to natural and anthropogenic influences: fall/winter baseflow (November through February), snowmelt runoff (March through June), and the irrigation/monsoon (July through October) seasons. A calcium bicarbonate water type was evident at all study area stations on the Rio Chama and Rio Grande. Specific conductance increased downstream, but alkalinity and pH did not substantially change in the downstream direction. Nearly all nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations were less than 1 milligram per liter for all stations. Median trace-element concentrations and maximum radionuclide concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Anthropogenic compounds were infrequently detected in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, and concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Water quality in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande varied spatially and temporally during water years 1985 to 2002. Specific conductance increased downstream in the Rio Grande during the fall/winter baseflow and snowmelt runoff seasons but was similar at the Taos, Otowi, and San Felipe stations during the irrigation/monsoon season. This similarity was a result of the release of stored water from Abiquiu Reservoir and Cochiti Lake, which masked the natural influences that increased specific conductance in the downstream direction during the other seasons. During all seasons, pH decreased and major ion concentrations remained stable at the Albuquerque station compared with the San Felipe station, but no single influence could be identified that caused these conditions. Manganese and uranium concentrations at the Otowi and San Felipe stations were largest during the fall/winter baseflow and smallest during the snowmelt runoff, indicating that ground-water inflows likely influenced these concentrations. Water-quality temporal trends were evaluated for selected constituents during the study period and during the individual seasons. Downward trends in major ion concentrations were similar in magnitude at the Taos and Otowi stations, indicating that an upstream influence and (or) the downward trend in annual precipitation was the main reason(s) for these trends. The stations most affected by reservoirs, Chamita and San Felipe, were the only stations at which downward trends in major ions were apparent for flow-adjusted concentrations but not for seasonally correlated low-adjusted concentrations, which indicates fewer seasonal differences at these stations due to reservoir operations.

Relation of nitrate concentrations to baseflow in the Raccoon River, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Lutz, D.S.

2004-01-01

Excessive nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) export from the Raccoon River in west central Iowa is an environmental concern to downstream receptors. The 1972 to 2000 record of daily streamflow and the results from 981 nitrate measurements were examined to describe the relation of nitrate to streamflow in the Raccoon River. No long term trends in streamflow and nitrate concentrations were noted in the 28-year record. Strong seasonal patterns were evident in nitrate concentrations, with higher concentrations occurring in spring and fall. Nitrate concentrations were linearly related to streamflow at daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. At all time scales evaluated, the relation was improved when baseflow was used as the discharge variable instead of total streamflow. Nitrate concentrations were found to be highly stratified according to flow, but there was little relation of nitrate to streamflow within each flow range. Simple linear regression models developed to predict monthly mean nitrate concentrations explained as much as 76 percent of the variability in the monthly nitrate concentration data for 2001. Extrapolation of current nitrate baseflow relations to historical conditions in the Raccoon River revealed that increasing baseflow over the 20th century could account for a measurable increase in nitrate concentrations.

Streamflow gains and losses along San Francisquito Creek and characterization of surface-water and ground-water quality, southern San Mateo and northern Santa Clara counties, California, 1996-97

USGS Publications Warehouse

Metzger, Loren F.

2002-01-01

San Francisquito Creek is an important source of recharge to the 22-square-mile San Francisquito Creek alluvial fan ground-water subbasin in the southern San Mateo and northern Santa Clara Counties of California. Ground water supplies as much as 20 percent of the water to some area communities. Local residents are concerned that infiltration and consequently ground-water recharge would be reduced if additional flood-control measures are implemented along San Francisquito Creek. To improve the understanding of the surface-water/ground-water interaction between San Francisquito Creek and the San Francisquito Creek alluvial fan, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated streamflow gains and losses along San Francisquito Creek and determined the chemical quality and isotopic composition of surface and ground water in the study area.Streamflow was measured at 13 temporary streamflow-measurement stations to determine streamflow gains and losses along a 8.4-mile section of San Francisquito Creek. A series of five seepage runs between April 1996 and May 1997 indicate that losses in San Francisquito Creek were negligible until it crossed the Pulgas Fault at Sand Hill Road. Streamflow losses increased between Sand Hill Road and Middlefield Road where the alluvial deposits are predominantly coarse-grained and the water table is below the bottom of the channel. The greatest streamflow losses were measured along a 1.8-mile section of the creek between the San Mateo Drive bike bridge and Middlefield Road; average losses between San Mateo Drive and Alma Street and from there to Middlefield Road were 3.1 and 2.5 acre-feet per day, respectively.Downstream from Middlefield Road, streamflow gains and losses owing to seepage may be masked by urban runoff, changes in bank storage, and tidal effects from San Francisco Bay. Streamflow gains measured between Middlefield Road and the 1200 block of Woodland Avenue may be attributable to urban runoff and (or) ground-water inflow. Water-level measurements from nearby wells indicate that the regional water table may coincide with the channel bottom along this reach of San Francisquito Creek, particularly during the winter and early spring when water levels usually reach their maximum. Streamflow losses resumed below the 1200 block of Woodland Avenue, extending downstream to Newell Road. Discharge from a large storm drain between Newell Road and East Bayshore Road may account for the streamflow gains measured between these sites. Streamflow gains were measured between East Bayshore Road and the Palo Alto Municipal Golf Course, but this reach is difficult to characterize because of the probable influence of high tides.Estimated average streamflow losses totaled approximately 1,050 acre-feet per year for the reaches between USGS stream gage 11164500 at Stanford University (upstream of Junipero Serra Boulevard) and the Palo Alto Municipal Golf Course, including approximately 595 acre-feet per year for the 1.8-mile section between San Mateo Drive and Middlefield Road. Approximately 58 percent, or 550 acre-feet, of the total estimated average annual recharge from San Francisquito Creek occurs between the San Mateo Drive and Middlefield Road sites.The chemical composition of San Francisquito Creek water varies as a function of seasonal changes in hydrologic conditions. Measurements of specific conductance indicate that during dry weather and low flow, the dissolved-solids concentrations tends to be high, and during wet weather, the concentration tends to be low owing to dilution by surface water. Compared with water samples from upstream sites at USGS stream gage 11164500 and San Mateo Drive, the samples from the downstream sites at Alma Street and Woodland Avenue had low specific conductance; low concentrations of magnesium, sodium, sulfate, chloride, boron, and total dissolved solids; high nutrient concentrations; and light isotopic compositions indicating that urban runoff constitutes most of the streamflow

Estimates of streamflow characteristics for selected small streams, Baker River basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, John R.

1987-01-01

Regression equations were used to estimate streamflow characteristics at eight ungaged sites on small streams in the Baker River basin in the North Cascade Mountains, Washington, that could be suitable for run-of-the-river hydropower development. The regression equations were obtained by relating known streamflow characteristics at 25 gaging stations in nearby basins to several physical and climatic variables that could be easily measured in gaged or ungaged basins. The known streamflow characteristics were mean annual flows, 1-, 3-, and 7-day low flows and high flows, mean monthly flows, and flow duration. Drainage area and mean annual precipitation were not the most significant variables in all the regression equations. Variance in the low flows and the summer mean monthly flows was reduced by including an index of glacierized area within the basin as a third variable. Standard errors of estimate of the regression equations ranged from 25 to 88%, and the largest errors were associated with the low flow characteristics. Discharge measurements made at the eight sites near midmonth each month during 1981 were used to estimate monthly mean flows at the sites for that period. These measurements also were correlated with concurrent daily mean flows from eight operating gaging stations. The correlations provided estimates of mean monthly flows that compared reasonably well with those estimated by the regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Midwestern streamflow, precipitation, and atmospheric vorticity influenced by Pacific sea-surface temperatures and total solar-irradiance variations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, C.A.

2006-01-01

A solar effect on streamflow in the Midwestern United States is described and supported in a six-step physical connection between total solar irradiance (TSI), tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), extratropical SSTs, jet-stream vorticity, surface-layer vorticity, precipitation, and streamflow. Variations in the correlations among the individual steps indicate that the solar/hydroclimatic mechanism is complex and has a time element (lag) that may not be constant. Correct phasing, supported by consistent spectral peaks between 0.092 and 0.096 cycles per year in all data sets within the mechanism is strong evidence for its existence. A significant correlation exists between total solar irradiance and the 3-year moving average of annual streamflow for Iowa (R = 0.67) and for the Mississippi River at St Louis, Missouri (R = 0.60), during the period 1950-2000. Published in 2005 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Streamflow characteristics related to channel geometry of streams in western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hedman, E.R.; Osterkamp, W.R.

1982-01-01

Assessment of surface-mining and reclamation activities generally requires extensive hydrologic data. Adequate streamflow data from instrumented gaging stations rarely are available, and estimates of surface- water discharge based on rainfall-runoff models, drainage area, and basin characteristics sometimes have proven unreliable. Channel-geometry measurements offer an alternative method of quickly and inexpensively estimating stream-flow characteristics for ungaged streams. The method uses the empirical development of equations to yield a discharge value from channel-geometry and channel-material data. The equations are developed by collecting data at numerous streamflow-gaging sites and statistically relating those data to selected discharge characteristics. Mean annual runoff and flood discharges with selected recurrence intervals can be estimated for perennial, intermittent, and ephemeral streams. The equations were developed from data collected in the western one-half of the conterminous United States. The effect of the channel-material and runoff characteristics are accounted for with the equations.

Proposal and work plan to calibrate and verify a water-quality model to simulate effects of wastewater discharges to the Red River of the North at drought streamflow near Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesolowski, Edwin A.

2000-01-01

This report presents a proposal for conducting a water-quality modeling study at drought streamflow, a detailed comprehensive plan for collecting the data, and an annual drought-formation monitoring plan. A 30.8 mile reach of the Red River of the North receives treated wastewater from plants at Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota, and streamflow from the Sheyenne River. The water-quality modeling study will evaluate the effects of continuous treated-wastewater discharges to the study reach at drought streamflow. The study will define hydraulic characteristics and reaeration and selected reaction coefficients and will calibrate and verity a model.The study includes collecting synoptic water-quality samples for various types of analyses at a number of sites in the study reach. Dye and gas samples will be collected for traveltime and reaeration measurements. Using the Lagrangian reference frame, synoptic water-quality samples will be collected for analysis of nutrients, chlorophyll a, alkalinity, and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand. Field measurements will be made of specific conductance, pH, air and water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and sediment oxygen demand. Two sets of water-quality data will be collected. One data set will be used to calibrate the model, and the other data set will be used to verity the model.The DAFLOW/BLTM models will be used to evaluate the effects of the treated wastewater on the water quality of the river. The model will simulate specific conductance, temperature, dissolved oxygen, carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand, total nitrogen (organic, ammonia, nitrite, nitrate), total orthophosphorus, total phosphorus, and phytoplankton as chlorophyll a.The work plan identifies and discusses the work elements needed for accomplishing the data collection for the study. The work elements specify who will provide personnel, vehicles, instruments, and supplies needed during data collection. The work plan contains instructions for data collection; inventory lists of needed personnel, vehicles, instruments, and supplies; and examples of computations for determining quantities of tracer to be injected into the stream. The work plan also contains an annual drought-formation monitoring plan that includes a 9-month time line that specifies when essential planning actions must occur before actual project start up. Drought streamflows are rare. The annual drought-formation monitoring plan is presented to assist project planning by providing early warning that conditions are favorable to produce drought streamflow. The plan to monitor drought-forming conditions discusses the drought indices to be monitored. To establish a baseline, historic values for some of the drought indices for selected years were reviewed. An annual review of the drought indices is recommended.

Measuring real-time streamflow using emerging technologies: Radar, hydroacoustics, and the probability concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, John; Ostrowski, Joseph

2008-07-01

SummaryForecasting streamflow during extreme hydrologic events such as floods can be problematic. This is particularly true when flow is unsteady, and river forecasts rely on models that require uniform-flow rating curves to route water from one forecast point to another. As a result, alternative methods for measuring streamflow are needed to properly route flood waves and account for inertial and pressure forces in natural channels dominated by nonuniform-flow conditions such as mild water surface slopes, backwater, tributary inflows, and reservoir operations. The objective of the demonstration was to use emerging technologies to measure instantaneous streamflow in open channels at two existing US Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. Surface-water and instream-point velocities were measured using hand-held radar and hydroacoustics. Streamflow was computed using the probability concept, which requires velocity data from a single vertical containing the maximum instream velocity. The percent difference in streamflow at the Susquehanna River at Bloomsburg, PA ranged from 0% to 8% with an average difference of 4% and standard deviation of 8.81 m 3/s. The percent difference in streamflow at Chartiers Creek at Carnegie, PA ranged from 0% to 11% with an average difference of 5% and standard deviation of 0.28 m 3/s. New generation equipment is being tested and developed to advance the use of radar-derived surface-water velocity and instantaneous streamflow to facilitate the collection and transmission of real-time streamflow that can be used to parameterize hydraulic routing models.

Measuring real-time streamflow using emerging technologies: Radar, hydroacoustics, and the probability concept

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, J.; Ostrowski, J.

2008-01-01

Forecasting streamflow during extreme hydrologic events such as floods can be problematic. This is particularly true when flow is unsteady, and river forecasts rely on models that require uniform-flow rating curves to route water from one forecast point to another. As a result, alternative methods for measuring streamflow are needed to properly route flood waves and account for inertial and pressure forces in natural channels dominated by nonuniform-flow conditions such as mild water surface slopes, backwater, tributary inflows, and reservoir operations. The objective of the demonstration was to use emerging technologies to measure instantaneous streamflow in open channels at two existing US Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. Surface-water and instream-point velocities were measured using hand-held radar and hydroacoustics. Streamflow was computed using the probability concept, which requires velocity data from a single vertical containing the maximum instream velocity. The percent difference in streamflow at the Susquehanna River at Bloomsburg, PA ranged from 0% to 8% with an average difference of 4% and standard deviation of 8.81 m3/s. The percent difference in streamflow at Chartiers Creek at Carnegie, PA ranged from 0% to 11% with an average difference of 5% and standard deviation of 0.28 m3/s. New generation equipment is being tested and developed to advance the use of radar-derived surface-water velocity and instantaneous streamflow to facilitate the collection and transmission of real-time streamflow that can be used to parameterize hydraulic routing models.

Value of long-term streamflow forecast to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated catchments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anghileri, Daniela; Voisin, Nathalie; Castelletti, Andrea F.

In this study, we develop a forecast-based adaptive control framework for Oroville reservoir, California, to assess the value of seasonal and inter-annual forecasts for reservoir operation.We use an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to generate retrospective, one-year-long streamflow forecasts based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrology model. The optimal sequence of daily release decisions from the reservoir is then determined by Model Predictive Control, a flexible and adaptive optimization scheme.We assess the forecast value by comparing system performance based on the ESP forecasts with that based on climatology and a perfect forecast. In addition, we evaluate system performance based onmore » a synthetic forecast, which is designed to isolate the contribution of seasonal and inter-annual forecast skill to the overall value of the ESP forecasts.Using the same ESP forecasts, we generalize our results by evaluating forecast value as a function of forecast skill, reservoir features, and demand. Our results show that perfect forecasts are valuable when the water demand is high and the reservoir is sufficiently large to allow for annual carry-over. Conversely, ESP forecast value is highest when the reservoir can shift water on a seasonal basis.On average, for the system evaluated here, the overall ESP value is 35% less than the perfect forecast value. The inter-annual component of the ESP forecast contributes 20-60% of the total forecast value. Improvements in the seasonal component of the ESP forecast would increase the overall ESP forecast value between 15 and 20%.« less

Annually resolved late Holocene paleohydrology of the southern Sierra Nevada and Tulare Lake, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Kenneth D.; Negrini, Robert M.; Cook, Edward R.; Rajagopal, Seshadri

2015-12-01

Here we present 2000 year long, annually resolved records of streamflow for the Kings, Kaweah, Tule, and Kern Rivers in the southwestern Sierra Nevada of California and consequent lake-level fluctuations at Tulare Lake in the southern San Joaquin Valley. The integrated approach of using moisture-sensitive tree ring records from the Living Blended Drought Atlas to reconstruct annual discharge and then routing this discharge to an annual Tulare Lake water balance model highlights the differences between these two types of paleoclimate records, even when subject to the same forcing factors. The reconstructed streamflow in the southern Sierra responded to yearly changes in precipitation and expressed a strong periodicity in the 2-8 year range over most of the reconstruction. The storage capacity of Tulare Lake caused it to fluctuate more slowly, masking the 2-8 year streamflow periodicity and instead expressing a strong periodicity in the 32-64 year range over much of the record. Although there have been longer droughts, the 2015 water year represents the driest in the last 2015 years and the 2012-2015 drought represents the driest 4 year period in the record. Under natural conditions, simulated Tulare Lake levels would now be at about 60 m, which is not as low as what occurred multiple times over the last 2000 years. This long-term perspective of fluctuations in climate and water supply suggests that different drought scenarios that vary in terms of severity and duration can produce similar lake-level responses in closed lake basins.

Long-term Trends in Mean Annual Streamflow in the United States for the Period 1960 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, M. T.; Norton, P. A.

2013-12-01

Long-term trends in mean annual streamflow were examined in the United States for evidence of climate change. Streamflow serves as a useful integrator of many climate factors, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, temperature and other hydrologic processes. The U.S. Geological Survey network of gaging stations with continuous record for the period 1960 through 2012 were considered and analyzed using the Kendall Tau statistical method looking for monotonic trends at a p-value greater than or equal to 0.1. Of the stations with 52 years of continuous record, 489 had upward trends while 260 stations had downward trends. Distinct geographic patterns of upward and downward trends emerged. Upward trends predominate in a band of stations extending from the eastern Dakotas through the Midwest to the New England states. Downward trends predominate in the southeastern United States and the Rocky Mountains of Wyoming, Montana and Idaho. Of those stations with upward trends, 56 stations had an increase in the annual mean that more than doubled from 1960 to 2012. The James River in South Dakota and the Red River of the North in North Dakota stand out for the magnitude of increase and the volume of water the increase represents. Of those stations with downward trends, 35 stations had a decrease that was more than half of the annual mean from 1960 to 2012. This presentation will provide details of these trends, the volumes of water represented, the associated precipitation trends and some evidence of land use change.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A; Hegewisch, Katherine C

2018-01-09

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

Simulation of streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the upper Guadalupe River watershed, south-central Texas, 1995-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bumgarner, Johnathan R.; Thompson, Florence E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board and the Upper Guadalupe River Authority, developed and calibrated a Soil and Water Assessment Tool watershed model of the upper Guadalupe River watershed in south-central Texas to simulate streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the watershed and to Canyon Lake for 1995-2010. Model simulations were done to quantify the possible change in water yield of individual subbasins in the upper Guadalupe River watershed as a result of the replacement of ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) with grasslands. The simulation results will serve as a tool for resource managers to guide their brush-management efforts. Model hydrology was calibrated with streamflow data collected at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 08167500 Guadalupe River near Spring Branch, Tex., for 1995-2010. Simulated monthly streamflow showed very good agreement with measured monthly streamflow: a percent bias of -5, a coefficient of determination of 0.91, and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency of 0.85. Modified land-cover input datasets were generated for the model in order to simulate the replacement of ashe juniper with grasslands in 23 brush-management subbasins in the watershed. Each of the 23 simulations showed an increase in simulated water yields in the targeted subbasins and to Canyon Lake. The simulated increases in average annual water yields in the subbasins ranged from 6,370 to 119,000 gallons per acre of ashe juniper replaced with grasslands with an average of 38,900 gallons. The simulated increases in average annual water yields to Canyon Lake from upstream subbasins ranged from 6,640 to 72,700 gallons per acre of ashe juniper replaced with grasslands with an average of 34,700 gallons.

Muted responses of streamflow and suspended sediment flux in a wildfire-affected watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owens, P. N.; Giles, T. R.; Petticrew, E. L.; Leggat, M. S.; Moore, R. D.; Eaton, B. C.

2013-11-01

In August 2003 a severe wildfire burnt 62% of Fishtrap Creek, a 158 km2 watershed in central British Columbia, Canada. Streamflows were obtained for the period 1980-2010 and suspended sediment fluxes were determined for the period 2004-2010 for Fishtrap Creek and these were compared to data for nearby Jamieson Creek, which was not affected by the wildfire. Peak streamflows in Fishtrap Creek after the wildfire were not significantly higher than before the wildfire, although total annual runoff had increased. Perhaps the most important change in streamflows following the wildfire was that peak flows associated with the annual freshet occurred earlier in the year (by ca. 2 weeks). Following the wildfire, monthly total suspended sediment fluxes peaked in April in Fishtrap Creek and May in Jamieson Creek, which reflects the change in timing of peak streamflows in Fishtrap. Specific suspended sediment yields were low in the first year following the wildfire (2004), and peak values for the 2004-2010 monitoring period occurred in 2006. Average specific suspended sediment yields over the monitoring period were similar for both watersheds at 2.8 and 2.9 t km- 2 year- 1 for Fishtrap and Jamieson watersheds, respectively. The muted responses of streamflows and suspended sediment fluxes following this severe wildfire are due to the lack of winter precipitation and the low intensities of summer rainfall events in the first year following the wildfire. Greater winter precipitation and associated snowmelt in subsequent years coincided with vegetation recovery. The major changes in the wildfire-affected watershed were increased bank erosion and channel migration due to a loss of root strength and cohesion, which occurred 3-5 years after the fire. This work demonstrates that the hydrological and geomorphological responses of watersheds to wildfires are a function of the severity of the wildfire and the timing and nature of driving forces (i.e. rainfall intensity, winter precipitation and snowmelt) during the progression of vegetation recovery.

Streamflow, infiltration, and recharge in Arroyo Hondo, New Mexico: Chapter F in Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States (Professional Paper 1703)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Stephanie J.; Stonestrom, David A.; Constantz, Jim; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Leake, Stanley A.

2007-01-01

Infiltration events in channels that flow only sporadically produce focused recharge to the Tesuque aquifer in the Española Basin. The current study examined the quantity and timing of streamflow and associated infiltration in Arroyo Hondo, an unregulated mountain-front stream that enters the basin from the western slope of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Traditional methods of stream gaging were combined with environmental-tracer based methods to provide the estimates. The study was conducted during a three-year period, October 1999–October 2002. The period was characterized by generally low precipitation and runoff. Summer monsoonal rains produced four brief periods of streamflow in water year 2000, only three of which extended beyond the mountain front, and negligible runoff in subsequent years. The largest peak flow during summer monsoon events was 0.59 cubic meters per second. Snowmelt was the main contributor to annual streamflow. Snowmelt produced more cumulative flow downstream from the mountain front during the study period than summer monsoonal rains.The presence or absence of streamflow downstream of the mountain front was determined by interpretation of streambed thermographs. Infiltration rates were estimated by numerical modeling of transient vertical streambed temperature profiles. Snowmelt extended throughout the instrumented reach during the spring of 2001. Flow was recorded at a station two kilometers downstream from the mountain front for six consecutive days in March. Inverse modeling of this event indicated an average infiltration rate of 1.4 meters per day at this location. For the entire study reach, the estimated total annual volume of infiltration ranged from 17,100 to 246,000 m3 during water years 2000 and 2001. During water year 2002, due to severe drought, streamflow and streambed infiltration in the study reach were both zero.

A Streamflow Statistics (StreamStats) Web Application for Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Kula, Stephanie P.; Puskas, Barry M.

2006-01-01

A StreamStats Web application was developed for Ohio that implements equations for estimating a variety of streamflow statistics including the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year peak streamflows, mean annual streamflow, mean monthly streamflows, harmonic mean streamflow, and 25th-, 50th-, and 75th-percentile streamflows. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application designed to facilitate the estimation of streamflow statistics at ungaged locations on streams. StreamStats can also serve precomputed streamflow statistics determined from streamflow-gaging station data. The basic structure, use, and limitations of StreamStats are described in this report. To facilitate the level of automation required for Ohio's StreamStats application, the technique used by Koltun (2003)1 for computing main-channel slope was replaced with a new computationally robust technique. The new channel-slope characteristic, referred to as SL10-85, differed from the National Hydrography Data based channel slope values (SL) reported by Koltun (2003)1 by an average of -28.3 percent, with the median change being -13.2 percent. In spite of the differences, the two slope measures are strongly correlated. The change in channel slope values resulting from the change in computational method necessitated revision of the full-model equations for flood-peak discharges originally presented by Koltun (2003)1. Average standard errors of prediction for the revised full-model equations presented in this report increased by a small amount over those reported by Koltun (2003)1, with increases ranging from 0.7 to 0.9 percent. Mean percentage changes in the revised regression and weighted flood-frequency estimates relative to regression and weighted estimates reported by Koltun (2003)1 were small, ranging from -0.72 to -0.25 percent and -0.22 to 0.07 percent, respectively.

Treating pre-instrumental data as "missing" data: using a tree-ring-based paleoclimate record and imputations to reconstruct streamflow in the Missouri River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, M. W.; Lall, U.; Cook, E. R.

2015-12-01

Advances in paleoclimatology in the past few decades have provided opportunities to expand the temporal perspective of the hydrological and climatological variability across the world. The North American region is particularly fortunate in this respect where a relatively dense network of high resolution paleoclimate proxy records have been assembled. One such network is the annually-resolved Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA): a paleoclimate reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) that covers North America on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid based on tree-ring chronologies. However, the use of the LBDA to assess North American streamflow variability requires a model by which streamflow may be reconstructed. Paleoclimate reconstructions have typically used models that first seek to quantify the relationship between the paleoclimate variable and the environmental variable of interest before extrapolating the relationship back in time. In contrast, the pre-instrumental streamflow is here considered as "missing" data. A method of imputing the "missing" streamflow data, prior to the instrumental record, is applied through multiple imputation using chained equations for streamflow in the Missouri River Basin. In this method, the distribution of the instrumental streamflow and LBDA is used to estimate sets of plausible values for the "missing" streamflow data resulting in a ~600 year-long streamflow reconstruction. Past research into external climate forcings, oceanic-atmospheric variability and its teleconnections, and assessments of rare multi-centennial instrumental records demonstrate that large temporal oscillations in hydrological conditions are unlikely to be captured in most instrumental records. The reconstruction of multi-centennial records of streamflow will enable comprehensive assessments of current and future water resource infrastructure and operations under the existing scope of natural climate variability.

Recent changes in ecologically-relevant streamflows in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Knouft, J.; Robeson, S. M.

2017-12-01

The streamflow regime is a primary regulator of the composition and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Growth, behavior, and/or reproduction of most freshwater organisms are influenced in some way by the amount of water, including high and low flows, and seasonal fluctuations in water availability in a particular habitat. This work examines trends in ecologically-relevant measures of streamflows from 1980-2015 for over 3,000 streamflow gauges located throughout Canada and United States. Specifically, we examine trends in water year mean flow and variability, as well as trends in high (95th and 99th percentile), low (1st and 5th percentile), and 7- and 3-day maximum and minimum streamflows. The results indicate a clear regional delineation of significant increases of ecologically-relevant streamflows in the northern Central Plains/south-central Canada, upper Midwest (except Michigan and Wisconsin) and northeastern United States/southeastern Canada, while significant decreases are found throughout the southeastern and southwestern United States. The regional agreement between streamflow trends in regulated and unregulated watersheds indicate a widespread climatic influence that is not masked by human alteration of streamflows. We explore the degree to which climate factors explain both interannual variability and observed trends in streamflow to better elucidate the role of top-down climate drivers versus bottom-up land surface drivers on recent trends in ecologically-relevant streamflow. We also explore how these changes in streamflow are affecting water quality such as water temperature and sediment concentration. This type of analysis will aid in highlighting streamflow regions in the United States that are currently sensitive to changes in climate, but may also aid in understanding which regions may be sensitive to future climatic changes.

Evaluation of the streamflow-gaging network of Alaska in providing regional streamflow information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabets, Timothy P.

1996-01-01

In 1906, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began operating a network of streamflow-gaging stations in Alaska. The primary purpose of the streamflow- gaging network has been to provide peak flow, average flow, and low-flow characteristics to a variety of users. In 1993, the USGS began a study to evaluate the current network of 78 stations. The objectives of this study were to determine the adequacy of the existing network in predicting selected regional flow characteristics and to determine if providing additional streamflow-gaging stations could improve the network's ability to predict these characteristics. Alaska was divided into six distinct hydrologic regions: Arctic, Northwest, Southcentral, Southeast, Southwest, and Yukon. For each region, historical and current streamflow data were compiled. In Arctic, Northwest, and Southwest Alaska, insufficient data were available to develop regional regression equations. In these areas, proposed locations of streamflow-gaging stations were selected by using clustering techniques to define similar areas within a region and by spatial visual analysis using the precipitation, physiographic, and hydrologic unit maps of Alaska. Sufficient data existed in Southcentral and Southeast Alaska to use generalized least squares (GLS) procedures to develop regional regression equations to estimate the 50-year peak flow, annual average flow, and a low-flow statistic. GLS procedures were also used for Yukon Alaska but the results should be used with caution because the data do not have an adequate spatial distribution. Network analysis procedures were used for the Southcentral, Southeast, and Yukon regions. Network analysis indicates the reduction in the sampling error of the regional regression equation that can be obtained given different scenarios. For Alaska, a 10-year planning period was used. One scenario showed the results of continuing the current network with no additional gaging stations and another scenario showed the results of adding gaging stations to the network. With the exception of the annual average discharge equation for Southeast Alaska, by adding gaging stations in all three regions, the sampling error was reduced to a greater extent than by not adding gaging stations. The proposed streamflow-gaging network for Alaska consists of 308 gaging stations, of which 32 are designated as index stations. If the proposed network can not be implemented in its entirety, then a lesser cost alternative would be to establish the index stations and to implement the network for a particular region.

Variations of annual and seasonal runoff in Guangdong Province, south China: spatiotemporal patterns and possible causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Xiao, Mingzhong; Singh, Vijay P.; Xu, Chong-Yu; Li, Jianfeng

2015-06-01

In this study, we thoroughly analyzed spatial and temporal distributions of runoff and their relation with precipitation changes based on monthly runoff dataset at 25 hydrological stations and monthly precipitation at 127 stations in Guangdong Province, south China. Trends of the runoff and precipitation are detected using Mann-Kendall trend test technique. Correlations between runoff and precipitation are tested using Spearman's and Pearson's correlation coefficients. The results indicate that: (1) annual maximum monthly runoff is mainly in decreasing tendency and significant increasing annual minimum monthly runoff is observed in the northern and eastern Guangdong Province. In addition, annual mean runoff is observed to be increasing at the stations located in the West and North Rivers and the coastal region; (2) analysis of seasonal runoff variations indicates increasing runoff in spring, autumn and winter. Wherein, significant increase of runoff is found at 8 stations and only 3 stations are dominated by decreasing runoff in winter; (3) runoff changes of the Guangdong Province are mainly the results of precipitation changes. The Guangdong Province is wetter in winter, spring and autumn. Summer is coming to be drier as reflected by decreasing runoff in the season; (4) both precipitation change and water reservoirs also play important roles in the increasing of annual minimum monthly streamflow. Seasonal shifts of runoff variations may pose new challenges for the water resources management under the influences of climate changes and intensifying human activities.

Assessment of groundwater/surface-water interaction and simulation of potential streamflow depletion induced by groundwater withdrawal, Uinta River near Roosevelt, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lambert, P.M.; Marston, T.; Kimball, B.A.; Stolp, B.J.

2011-01-01

Roosevelt City, Utah, asserts a need for an additional supply of water to meet municipal demands and has identified a potential location for additional groundwater development at the Sprouse well field near the West Channel of the Uinta River. Groundwater is commonly hydraulically linked to surface water and, under some conditions, the pumpage of groundwater can deplete water in streams and other water bodies. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Roosevelt City, the Utah Department of Natural Resources, and the Ute Indian Tribe, began a study to improve understanding of the local interconnection between groundwater and surface water and to assess the potential for streamflow depletion from future groundwater withdrawals at a potential Roosevelt City development location—the Sprouse well field near the West Channel of the Uinta River.In the study, streamflow gains and losses at the river/aquifer boundary near the well field and changes in those conditions over time were assessed through (1) synoptic measurement of discharge in the stream at multiple sites using tracer-dilution methods, (2) periodic measurement of the vertical hydraulic gradient across the streambed, and (3) continuous measurement of stream and streambed water temperature using heat as a tracer of flow across the streambed. Although some contradictions among the results of the three assessment methods were observed, results of the approaches generally indicated (1) losing streamflow conditions on the West Channel of the Uinta River north of and upstream from the Sprouse well field within the study area, (2) gaining streamflow conditions south of and downstream from the well field, and (3) some seasonal changes in those conditions that correspond with seasonal changes in stream stage and local water-table altitudes.A numerical groundwater flow model was developed on the basis of previously reported observations and observations made during this study, and was used to estimate potential streamflow depletion that might result from future groundwater withdrawals at the Sprouse well field. The model incorporates concepts of transient groundwater flow conditions including fluctuations in groundwater levels and storage, and the distribution of and temporal variations in gains to and losses from streamflow in the West Channel of the Uinta River near the Sprouse well field. Two predictive model simulations incorporated additional future discharge from the Sprouse well field totaling 325 acre-feet annually and biennially during summer months. Results of the predictive model simulations indicate that the water withdrawn by the additional pumping was derived initially from aquifer storage and then, with time, predominantly from streamflow depletion. By the 10th year of the predictive simulation incorporating annual summer pumping from an additional public-supply well in the Sprouse well field, the simulation results indicate that 89 percent of a future annual 325 acre-feet of discharge is derived from depletion of streamflow in the West Channel of the Uinta River. A similar result was observed in a predictive model simulating the same discharge rate but with the new well being pumped every other year.

Relating streamflow characteristics to specialized insectivores in the Tennessee River Valley: a regional approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knight, Rodney R.; Gregory, M. Brian; Wales, Amy K.

2008-01-01

Analysis of hydrologic time series and fish community data across the Tennessee River Valley identified three hydrologic metrics essential to habitat suitability and food availability for insectivorous fish communities in streams of the Tennessee River Valley: constancy (flow stability or temporal invariance), frequency of moderate flooding (frequency of habitat disturbance), and rate of streamflow recession. Initial datasets included 1100 fish community sites and 300 streamgages. Reduction of these datasets to sites with coexisting data yielded 33 sites with streamflow and fish community data for analysis. Identification of critical hydrologic metrics was completed using a multivariate correlation procedure that maximizes the rank correlation between the hydrologic metrics and fish community resemblance matrices. Quantile regression was used to define thresholds of potential ranges of insectivore scores for given values of the hydrologic metrics. Increased values of constancy and insectivore scores were positively correlated. Constancy of streamflow maintains wetted perimeter, which is important for providing habitat for fish spawning and increased surface area for invertebrate colonization and reproduction. Site scores for insectivorous fish increased as the frequency of moderate flooding (3 times the median annual streamflow) decreased, suggesting that insectivorous fish communities respond positively to less frequent disturbance and a more stable habitat. Increased streamflow recession rates were associated with decreased insectivore scores. Increased streamflow recession can strand fish in pools and other areas that are disconnected from flowing water and remove invertebrates as food sources that were suspended during high-streamflow events.

Identifying Hydrologic Processes in Agricultural Watersheds Using Precipitation-Runoff Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linard, Joshua I.; Wolock, David M.; Webb, Richard M.T.; Wieczorek, Michael

2009-01-01

Understanding the fate and transport of agricultural chemicals applied to agricultural fields will assist in designing the most effective strategies to prevent water-quality impairments. At a watershed scale, the processes controlling the fate and transport of agricultural chemicals are generally understood only conceptually. To examine the applicability of conceptual models to the processes actually occurring, two precipitation-runoff models - the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) - were applied in different agricultural settings of the contiguous United States. Each model, through different physical processes, simulated the transport of water to a stream from the surface, the unsaturated zone, and the saturated zone. Models were calibrated for watersheds in Maryland, Indiana, and Nebraska. The calibrated sets of input parameters for each model at each watershed are discussed, and the criteria used to validate the models are explained. The SWAT and WEBMOD model results at each watershed conformed to each other and to the processes identified in each watershed's conceptual hydrology. In Maryland the conceptual understanding of the hydrology indicated groundwater flow was the largest annual source of streamflow; the simulation results for the validation period confirm this. The dominant source of water to the Indiana watershed was thought to be tile drains. Although tile drains were not explicitly simulated in the SWAT model, a large component of streamflow was received from lateral flow, which could be attributed to tile drains. Being able to explicitly account for tile drains, WEBMOD indicated water from tile drains constituted most of the annual streamflow in the Indiana watershed. The Nebraska models indicated annual streamflow was composed primarily of perennial groundwater flow and infiltration-excess runoff, which conformed to the conceptual hydrology developed for that watershed. The hydrologic processes represented in the parameter sets resulting from each model were comparable at individual watersheds, but varied between watersheds. The models were unable to show, however, whether hydrologic processes other than those included in the original conceptual models were major contributors to streamflow. Supplemental simulations of agricultural chemical transport could improve the ability to assess conceptual models.

Water Quality and Biological Characteristics of the Middle Fork of the Saline River, Arkansas, 2003-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.; Petersen, James C.; Shelby, Erica L.; Wise, Jim A.

2008-01-01

The Middle Fork of the Saline River has many qualities that have been recognized by State and Federal agencies. The Middle Fork provides habitat for several rare aquatic species and is part of a larger stream system (the Upper Saline River) that is known for relatively high levels of species richness and relatively high numbers of species of concern. Water-quality samples were collected and streamflow was measured by the U.S. Geological Survey at three sites in the Middle Fork Basin between October 2003 and October 2006. The Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality collected discrete synoptic water-quality samples from eight sites between January 2004 and October 2006. The Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality also sampled fish (September-October 2003) and benthic macroinvertebrate communities (September 2003-December 2005) at five sites. Streamflow varied annually among the three streamflow sites from October 2003 to October 2006. The mean annual streamflow for Brushy Creek near Jessieville (MFS06) was 0.72 cubic meters per second for water years 2004-2006. The Middle Fork below Jessieville (MFS05) had a mean annual streamflow of 1.11 cubic meters per second for water years 2004-2006. The Middle Fork near Owensville (MFS02), the most downstream site, had a mean annual streamflow of 3.01 cubic meters per second. The greatest streamflows at the three sites generally occurred in the winter and spring and the least in the summer. Nutrient dynamics in the Middle Fork are controlled by activities in the basin and processes that occur in the stream. Point sources and nonpoint sources of nutrients occur in the Middle Fork Basin that could affect the water-quality. Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations generally were greatest in Mill Creek (MFS04E) and in the Middle Fork immediately downstream from the confluence with Mill Creek (MFS04) with decreasing concentrations at sites farther downstream in Middle Fork. The site in Mill Creek is located downstream from a wastewater-treatment plant discharge and concentrations at sites farther downstream probably had lesser concentrations because of dilution effects and from algal uptake. Nutrient concentrations generally were significantly greater during high-flow conditions compared to base-flow conditions. Flow-weighted nutrient concentrations were computed for the three streamflow sites and were compared to 82 relatively undeveloped sites identified across the Nation, to the Alum Fork of the Saline River near Reform, Arkansas, and to the Illinois River south of Siloam Springs, Arkansas, a site influenced by numerous point and nonpoint sources of nutrients. Annual flow-weighted nutrient concentrations for MFS06, MFS05, and MFS02 were greater than relatively undeveloped sites, but were substantially less than the Illinois River south of Siloam Springs. Fecal indicator bacteria concentrations were slightly greater at MFS06 and MFS05 compared to concentrations at MFS02 for October 2003 to October 2006. MFS05 had the greatest E.coli concentrations and MFS06 had the greatest fecal coliform concentrations. Overall, fecal indicator bacteria concentrations were significantly greater for samples collected during high-flow conditions compared to samples collected during low-flow conditions at all three sites. Suspended-sediment concentrations did not vary significantly among MFS06, MFS05, and MFS02 for all the samples collected from October 2003 to October 2006. Suspended-sediment concentrations were significantly greater in samples collected during high-flow conditions compared to samples collected during base-flow conditions. Synoptic samples indicated varied total suspended-solids distributions from upstream to downstream in the Middle Fork between January 2004 and October 2006. Overall, total suspended-solids values were the greatest at site MFS02 and decreased at sites upstream and downstream. Turbidity measured when water-quality samples were

On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blum, Annalise G.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

2017-01-01

Daily streamflows are often represented by flow duration curves (FDCs), which illustrate the frequency with which flows are equaled or exceeded. FDCs have had broad applications across both operational and research hydrology for decades; however, modeling FDCs has proven elusive. Daily streamflow is a complex time series with flow values ranging over many orders of magnitude. The identification of a probability distribution that can approximate daily streamflow would improve understanding of the behavior of daily flows and the ability to estimate FDCs at ungaged river locations. Comparisons of modeled and empirical FDCs at nearly 400 unregulated, perennial streams illustrate that the four-parameter kappa distribution provides a very good representation of daily streamflow across the majority of physiographic regions in the conterminous United States (US). Further, for some regions of the US, the three-parameter generalized Pareto and lognormal distributions also provide a good approximation to FDCs. Similar results are found for the period of record FDCs, representing the long-term hydrologic regime at a site, and median annual FDCs, representing the behavior of flows in a typical year.

Hydrology and water quality of lakes and streams in Orange County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

German, Edward R.; Adamski, James C.

2005-01-01

Orange County, Florida, is continuing to experience a large growth in population. In 1920, the population of Orange County was less than 20,000; in 2000, the population was about 896,000. The amount of urban area around Orlando has increased considerably, especially in the northwest part of the County. The eastern one-third of the County, however, had relatively little increase in urbanization from 1977-97. The increase of population, tourism, and industry in Orange County and nearby areas changed land use; land that was once agricultural has become urban, industrial, and major recreation areas. These changes could impact surface-water resources that are important for wildlife habitat, for esthetic reasons, and potentially for public supply. Streamflow characteristics and water quality could be affected in various ways. As a result of changing land use, changes in the hydrology and water quality of Orange County's lakes and streams could occur. Median runoff in 10 selected Orange County streams ranges from about 20 inches per year (in/yr) in the Wekiva River to about 1.1 in/yr in Cypress Creek. The runoff for the Wekiva River is significantly higher than other river basins because of the relatively constant spring discharge that sustains streamflow, even during drought conditions. The low runoff for the Cypress Creek basin results from a lack of sustained inflow from ground water and a relatively large area of lakes within the drainage basin. Streamflow characteristics for 13 stations were computed on an annual basis and examined for temporal trends. Results of the trend testing indicate changes in annual mean streamflow, 1-day high streamflow, or 7-day low streamflow at 8 of the 13 stations. However, changes in 7-day low streamflow are more common than changes in annual mean or 1-day high streamflow. There is probably no single reason for the changes in 7-day low streamflows, and for most streams, it is difficult to determine definite reasons for the flow increases. Low flows in the Econlockhatchee River at Chuluota have increased because of discharge of treated wastewater since 1982. However, trends in increasing 7-day low streamflow are evident before 1982, which cannot be attributed to wastewater discharge. Some of the increases in 7-day low flows may be related to drainage changes resulting from increased development in Orange County. Development for most purposes, including those as diverse as cattle grazing and residential construction, may involve modification of surface drainage through stream channelization and construction of canals. These changes in land drainage can lower the water table, resulting in reductions of regional evapotranspiration rates and increased streamflow. Another possible cause of increasing low flows in streams is use of water from the Floridan aquifer system for irrigation. Runoff of irrigation water or increased seepage from irrigated areas to streams could increase base streamflow compared to natural conditions. Water-level data were analyzed to determine temporal trends from 83 lakes that had more than 15 years of record. There were significant temporal trends in 33 of the 83 lakes (40 percent) over the entire period of record. Of these 33 lakes, 14 had increasing water levels and 19 lakes had decreasing water levels. The downward trends in long-term lake levels could in part be due to high rainfall accumulation in 1960-1961, which included precipitation from Hurricane Donna (September 1960). The high rainfall resulted in historical high-water levels in many lakes in 1960 or 1961. A large range of water-quality conditions exists in lakes and streams of Orange County (2000-01). Specific conductance in lake samples ranged from 57 to 1,185 microsiemens per centimeter. Values of pH ranged from 3.2 to 8.7 in stream samples and 4.6 to 9.6 in lake samples. Total nitrogen concentrations ranged from less than 0.2 to 7.1 milligrams per liter (mg/L) as nitrogen in stream samples, and

A Hydrological Modeling Framework for Flood Risk Assessment for Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashouri, H.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Chowdhary, H.; Sen Gupta, A.

2016-12-01

Flooding has been the most frequent natural disaster that claims lives and imposes significant economic losses to human societies worldwide. Japan, with an annual rainfall of up to approximately 4000 mm is extremely vulnerable to flooding. The focus of this research is to develop a macroscale hydrologic model for simulating flooding toward an improved understanding and assessment of flood risk across Japan. The framework employs a conceptual hydrological model, known as the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), as well as the Muskingum-Cunge flood routing procedure for simulating streamflow. In addition, a Temperature-Index model is incorporated to account for snowmelt and its contribution to streamflow. For an efficient calibration of the model, in terms of computational timing and convergence of the parameters, a set of A Priori parameters is obtained based on the relationships between the model parameters and the physical properties of watersheds. In this regard, we have implemented a particle tracking algorithm and a statistical model which use high resolution Digital Terrain Models to estimate different time related parameters of the model such as time to peak of the unit hydrograph. In addition, global soil moisture and depth data are used to generate A Priori estimation of maximum soil moisture capacity, an important parameter of the PDM model. Once the model is calibrated, its performance is examined during the Typhoon Nabi which struck Japan in September 2005 and caused severe flooding throughout the country. The model is also validated for the extreme precipitation event in 2012 which affected Kyushu. In both cases, quantitative measures show that simulated streamflow depicts good agreement with gauge-based observations. The model is employed to simulate thousands of possible flood events for the entire Japan which makes a basis for a comprehensive flood risk assessment and loss estimation for the flood insurance industry.

Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN) Streamflow Data Set, 1874-1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slack, James Richard; Lumb, Alan M.; Landwehr, Jurate Maciunas

1993-01-01

The potential consequences of climate change to continental water resources are of great concern in the management of those resources. Critically important to society is what effect fluctuations in the prevailing climate may have on hydrologic conditions, such as the occurrence and magnitude of floods or droughts and the seasonal distribution of water supplies within a region. Records of streamflow that are unaffected by artificial diversions, storage, or other works of man in or on the natural stream channels or in the watershed can provide an account of hydrologic responses to fluctuations in climate. By examining such records given known past meteorologic conditions, we can better understand hydrologic responses to those conditions and anticipate the effects of postulated changes in current climate regimes. Furthermore, patterns in streamflow records can indicate when a change in the prevailing climate regime may have occurred in the past, even in the absence of concurrent meteorologic records. A streamflow data set, which is specifically suitable for the study of surface-water conditions throughout the United States under fluctuations in the prevailing climatic conditions, has been developed. This data set, called the Hydro-Climatic Data Network, or HCDN, consists of streamflow records for 1,659 sites throughout United States and its Territories. Records cumulatively span the period 1874 through 1988, inclusive, and represent a total of 73,231 water years of information. Development of the HCDN Data Set: Records for the HCDN were obtained through a comprehensive search of the extensive surface- water data holdings of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which are contained in the USGS National Water Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE). All streamflow discharge records in WATSTORE through September 30, 1988, were examined for inclusion in the HCDN in accordance with strictly defined criteria of measurement accuracy and natural conditions. No reconstructed records of 'natural flow' were permitted, nor was any record extended or had missing values 'filled in' using computational algorithms. If the streamflow at a station was judged to be free of controls for only a part of the entire period of record that is available for the station, then only that part was included in the HCDN, but only if it was of sufficient length (generally 20 years) to warrant inclusion. In addition to the daily mean discharge values, complete station identification information and basin characteristics were retrieved from WATSTORE for inclusion in the HCDN. Statistical characteristics, including the monthly mean discharge, as well as the annual mean, minimum and maximum discharge values, were derived for the records in the HCDN data set. For a full description of the development and content of the Hydro-Climatic Data Network, please take a look at the HCDN Report.

Assessment of statewide annual streamflow in New Mexico, 1985-2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Affinati, Joseph Anthony; Myers, Nathan C.

2015-01-01

The San Francisco River annual flows were relatively high compared to other years in the study in 1985, 1991–93, 1995, and 2005 but were near or below average for the rest of the years of the study. Both reaches on the San Francisco River were gaining reaches for all 29 years of the study.

Surface-water hydrologic data for the Houston metropolitan area, Texas, water years 1990-95

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sneck-Fahrer, Debra A.; Liscum, Fred; East, Jeffery W.

2003-01-01

During water years 1990–95, data were collected at 24 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations, 21 rain gages, and 6 water-quality stations in the Houston metropolitan area, Texas. The data were collected as part of the Houston Urban Runoff Program, which began in water year 1964. Annual peaks were defined for the 24 streamflow-gaging stations in the study area. All stations had 10 or more years of record. Precipitation data from the 21 rain gages and discharge or stage data from 23 streamflow-gaging stations are available to develop storm hydrographs. One-hundred thirty-four samples were collected at six water-quality stations. The samples were analyzed for about 80 water-quality properties and constituents.

Water resources data for california, water year 1992. Volume 1. Southern Great Basin from Mexican border to Mono lake basin, and pacific slope basins from Tijuana river to Santa Maria river. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1991-30 September 1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, E.B.; Bowers, J.C.; Mullen, J.R.

1993-09-01

Water resources data for the 1992 water year for California consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage and contents in lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality in wells. Volume 1 contains (1) discharge records for 161 streamflow-gaging stations, 15 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations, and 5 miscellaneous measurement stations; (2) stage and contents records for 26 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water-quality records for 23 streamflow-gaging stations and 3 partial-record stations; and (4) precipitation records for 11 stations.

Water resources data for California, water year 1993. Volume 1. Southern Great Basin from Mexican border to Mono Lake Basin, and Pacific Slope Basins from Tijuana River to Santa Maria River. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1992-30 September 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mullen, J.R.; Hayes, P.D.; Agajanian, J.A.

1994-06-01

Water resources data for the 1993 water year for California consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage and contents in lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality in wells. Volume 1 contains (1) discharge records for 156 streamflow-gaging stations, 12 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations, and 5 miscellaneous measurement stations; (2) stage and contents records for 26 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water-quality records for 17 streamflow-gaging stations and 6 partial-record stations; and (4) precipitation records for 10 stations.

Genetic Algorithm Based Framework for Automation of Stochastic Modeling of Multi-Season Streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastav, R. K.; Srinivasan, K.; Sudheer, K.

2009-05-01

Synthetic streamflow data generation involves the synthesis of likely streamflow patterns that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed streamflow data. The various kinds of stochastic models adopted for multi-season streamflow generation in hydrology are: i) parametric models which hypothesize the form of the periodic dependence structure and the distributional form a priori (examples are PAR, PARMA); disaggregation models that aim to preserve the correlation structure at the periodic level and the aggregated annual level; ii) Nonparametric models (examples are bootstrap/kernel based methods), which characterize the laws of chance, describing the stream flow process, without recourse to prior assumptions as to the form or structure of these laws; (k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), matched block bootstrap (MABB)); non-parametric disaggregation model. iii) Hybrid models which blend both parametric and non-parametric models advantageously to model the streamflows effectively. Despite many of these developments that have taken place in the field of stochastic modeling of streamflows over the last four decades, accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics has been posing a persistent challenge to the stochastic modeler. This is partly because, usually, the stochastic streamflow model parameters are estimated by minimizing a statistically based objective function (such as maximum likelihood (MLE) or least squares (LS) estimation) and subsequently the efficacy of the models is being validated based on the accuracy of prediction of the estimates of the water-use characteristics, which requires large number of trial simulations and inspection of many plots and tables. Still accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics may not be ensured. In this study a multi-objective optimization framework is proposed to find the optimal hybrid model (blend of a simple parametric model, PAR(1) model and matched block bootstrap (MABB) ) based on the explicit objective functions of minimizing the relative bias and relative root mean square error in estimating the storage capacity of the reservoir. The optimal parameter set of the hybrid model is obtained based on the search over a multi- dimensional parameter space (involving simultaneous exploration of the parametric (PAR(1)) as well as the non-parametric (MABB) components). This is achieved using the efficient evolutionary search based optimization tool namely, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm - II (NSGA-II). This approach helps in reducing the drudgery involved in the process of manual selection of the hybrid model, in addition to predicting the basic summary statistics dependence structure, marginal distribution and water-use characteristics accurately. The proposed optimization framework is used to model the multi-season streamflows of River Beaver and River Weber of USA. In case of both the rivers, the proposed GA-based hybrid model yields a much better prediction of the storage capacity (where simultaneous exploration of both parametric and non-parametric components is done) when compared with the MLE-based hybrid models (where the hybrid model selection is done in two stages, thus probably resulting in a sub-optimal model). This framework can be further extended to include different linear/non-linear hybrid stochastic models at other temporal and spatial scales as well.

Global estimation of long-term persistence in annual river runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markonis, Y.; Moustakis, Y.; Nasika, C.; Sychova, P.; Dimitriadis, P.; Hanel, M.; Máca, P.; Papalexiou, S. M.

2018-03-01

Long-term persistence (LTP) of annual river runoff is a topic of ongoing hydrological research, due to its implications to water resources management. Here, we estimate its strength, measured by the Hurst coefficient H, in 696 annual, globally distributed, streamflow records with at least 80 years of data. We use three estimation methods (maximum likelihood estimator, Whittle estimator and least squares variance) resulting in similar mean values of H close to 0.65. Subsequently, we explore potential factors influencing H by two linear (Spearman's rank correlation, multiple linear regression) and two non-linear (self-organizing maps, random forests) techniques. Catchment area is found to be crucial for medium to larger watersheds, while climatic controls, such as aridity index, have higher impact to smaller ones. Our findings indicate that long-term persistence is weaker than found in other studies, suggesting that enhanced LTP is encountered in large-catchment rivers, were the effect of spatial aggregation is more intense. However, we also show that the estimated values of H can be reproduced by a short-term persistence stochastic model such as an auto-regressive AR(1) process. A direct consequence is that some of the most common methods for the estimation of H coefficient, might not be suitable for discriminating short- and long-term persistence even in long observational records.

Runoff characteristics of California streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rantz, S.E.

1972-01-01

California streams exhibit a wide range of runoff characteristics that are related to the climatologic, topographic, and geologic characteristics of the basins they drain. The annual volume of runoff of a stream, expressed in inches, may be large or small, and daily discharge rates may be highly variable or relatively steady. The bulk of the annual runoff may be storm runoff, or snowmelt runoff, or a combination of both. The streamflow may be ephemeral, intermittent, or perennial; if perennial, base flow may be well sustained or poorly sustained. In this report the various runoff characteristics are identified by numerical index values. They are shown to be related generally to mean annual precipitation, altitude, latitude, and location with respect to the 11 geomorphic provinces in the California Region. With respect to mean annual precipitation on the watershed, streamflow is generally (1) ephemeral if the mean annual precipitation is less than 10 inches, (2) intermittent if the mean annual precipitation is between 10 and 40 inches, and (3) perennial if the mean annual precipitation is more than 40 inches. Departures from those generalizations are associated with (a) the areal variation of such geologic factors as the infiltration and storage capacities of the rocks underlying the watersheds, and (b) the areal variation of evapotranspiration loss as influenced by varying conditions of climate, soil, vegetal cover, and geologic structure. Latitude and altitude determine the proportion of the winter precipitation that will be stored for subsequent runoff in the late spring and summer. In general, if a watershed has at least 30 percent of its area above the normal altitude of the snowline on April 1, it will have significant snowmelt runoff. Snowmelt runoff in California is said to be significant if at least 30 percent of the annual runoff occurs during the 4 months, April through July. Storm runoff is said to be predominant if at least 65 percent of the annual runoff occurs during the 6 months, October through March. Base flow (ground-water outflow), as a factor in the regimen of streamflow, is qualified on the basis of the percentage of the mean annual runoff that occurs during the fair-weather months of August and September. If the sum of the August and September runoff exceeds 3.0 percent of the annual runoff, base flow is considered to be well sustained; if the percentage is between 1.5 and 3.0, base flow is considered to be fairly well sustained; if the percentage is less than 1.5, baseflow is considered to be poorly sustained. The characteristics of duration curves of daily streamflow are influenced by the regimen of runoff. The distribution of daily flow is skewed for all streams, but it is more skewed for streams whose flow is predominantly storm runoff than for streams that carry significantly large quantities of snowmelt. Least skewed is the distribution for streams that carry large quantities of base flow. Either of two characteristics of the duration curve may be used as an index of skew--the percentage of time that the mean discharge is equaled or exceeded or the ratio of the median discharge to the mean discharge. As for variability of daily discharge, the variability of storm-runoff streams is greater than that of snowmelt streams, and the lowest values of variability are associated with streams that carry large quantities of base flow. The index of variability used in this study was the ratio of the discharge equaled or exceeded 10 percent of the time to the discharge equaled or exceeded 90 percent of the time. The identification of streamflow characteristics by numerical index figures greatly facilitates comparison of the diverse runoff regimens of streams in the California Region.

Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, Robert L.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2000-01-01

Simulations of future climate using general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. Of less certainty is the extent to which regional scale (i.e., sub-GCM grid) environmental processes will be affected. In this chapter, a range of downscaling techniques are critiqued. Then a relatively simple (yet robust) statistical downscaling technique and its use in the modelling of future runoff scenarios for three river basins in the Sierra Nevada, California, is described. This region was selected because GCM experiments driven by combined greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings consistently show major changes in the hydro-climate of the southwest United States by the end of the 21st century. The regression-based downscaling method was used to simulate daily rainfall and temperature series for streamflow modelling in three Californian river basins under current-and future-climate conditions. The downscaling involved just three predictor variables (specific humidity, zonal velocity component of airflow, and 500 hPa geopotential heights) supplied by the U.K. Meteorological Office couple ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM2) for the grid point nearest the target basins. When evaluated using independent data, the model showed reasonable skill at reproducing observed area-average precipitation, temperature, and concomitant streamflow variations. Overall, the downscaled data resulted in slight underestimates of mean annual streamflow due to underestimates of precipitation in spring and positive temperature biases in winter. Differences in the skill of simulated streamflows amongst the three basins were attributed to the smoothing effects of snowpack on streamflow responses to climate forcing. The Merced and American River basins drain the western, windward slope of the Sierra Nevada and are snowmelt dominated, whereas the Carson River drains the eastern, leeward slope and is a mix of rainfall runoff and snowmelt runoff. Simulated streamflow in the American River responds rapidly and sensitively to daily-scale temperature and precipitation fluctuations and errors; in the Merced and Carson Rivers, the response to the same short-term influences is much less. Consequently, the skill of simulated flows was significantly lower in the American River model than in the Carson and Merced. The physiography of the three basins also accounts for differences in their sensitivities to future climate change. Increases in winter precipitation exceeding +100% coupled with mean temperature rises greater than +2°C result in increased winter streamflows in all three basins. In the Merced and Carson basins, these streamflow increases reflect large changes in winter snowpack, whereas the streamflow changes in the lower elevation American basin are driven primarily by rainfall runoff. Furthermore, reductions in winter snowpack in the American River basin, owing to less precipitation falling as snow and earlier melting of snow at middle elevations, lead to less spring and summer streamflow. Taken collectively, the downscaling results suggest significant changes to both the timing and magnitude of streamflows in the Sierra Nevada by the end of the 21st Century. In the higher elevation basins, the HadCM2 scenario implies more annual streamflow and more streamflow during the spring and summer months that are critical for water-resources management in California. Depending on the relative significance of rainfall runoff and snowmelt, each basin responds in its own way to regional climate forcing. Generally, then, climate scenarios need to be specified — by whatever means — with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to capture subtle orographic influences if projections of climate-change responses are to be useful and reproducible.

Low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Wiegand, Ute

2011-01-01

Low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities (ANEP), called probability-percent chance (P-percent chance) flow estimates, regional regression equations, and transfer methods are provided describing the low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams. Statistical methods are used to evaluate streamflow data. Analysis of Virginia streamflow data collected from 1895 through 2007 is summarized. Methods are provided for estimating low-flow characteristics of gaged and ungaged streams. The 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average streamgaging station low-flow characteristics for 290 long-term, continuous-record, streamgaging stations are determined, adjusted for instances of zero flow using a conditional probability adjustment method, and presented for non-exceedance probabilities of 0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.05, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.005. Stream basin characteristics computed using spatial data and a geographic information system are used as explanatory variables in regional regression equations to estimate annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites and are summarized for 290 long-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Regional regression equations for six physiographic regions use basin characteristics to estimate 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites. Weighted low-flow values that combine computed streamgaging station low-flow characteristics and annual non-exceedance probabilities from regional regression equations provide improved low-flow estimates. Regression equations developed using the Maintenance of Variance with Extension (MOVE.1) method describe the line of organic correlation (LOC) with an appropriate index site for low-flow characteristics at 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Monthly streamflow statistics computed on the individual daily mean streamflows of selected continuous-record streamgaging stations and curves describing flow-duration are presented. Text, figures, and lists are provided summarizing low-flow estimates, selected low-flow sites, delineated physiographic regions, basin characteristics, regression equations, error estimates, definitions, and data sources. This study supersedes previous studies of low flows in Virginia.

Surface waters of North Boggy Creek basin in the Muddy Boggy Creek basin in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laine, L.L.

1958-01-01

Analysis of short-term streamflow data in North Boggy Creek basin indicates that the average runoff in this region is substantial. The streamflow is highly variable from year to year and from month to month. The estimated total yield from the North Boggy Creek watershed of 231 square miles averages 155,000 acre-feet annually, equivalent to an average runoff depth of 12 1/2 inches. Almost a fourth of the annual volume is contributed by Chickasaw Creek basin, where about 35,000 acre-feet runs off from 46 square miles. Two years of records show a variation in runoff for the calendar year 1957 in comparison to 1956 in a ratio of 13 to 1 for the station on North Boggy Creek and a ratio of 18 to 1 for the station on Chickasaw Creek. In a longer-term record downstream on Muddy Boggy Creek near Farris, the corresponding range was 17 to 1, while the calendar years 1945 and 1956 show a 20-fold variation in runoff. Within a year the higher runoff tends to occur in the spring months, April to June, a 3-month period that, on the average, accounts for at least half of the annual flow. High runoff may occur during any month in the year, but in general, the streamflow is relatively small in the summer. Records for the gaging stations noted indicate that there is little or no base flow in the summer, and thus there will be periods of no flow at times in most years. The variation in runoff during a year is suggested by a frequency analysis of low flows at the reference station on Muddy Boggy Creek near Farris. Although the mean flow at that site is 955 cfs (cubic feet per second), the median daily flow is only 59 cfs and the lowest 30-day flow in a year will average less than 1 cfs in 4 out of 10 years on the average. The estimated mean flow on North Boggy Creek near Stringtown is 124 cfs, but the estimated median daily flow is only 3 1/2 cfs. Because of the high variability in streamflow, development of storage by impoundment will be necessary to attain maximum utilization of the available water supplies in this region. The surface waters of the North Boggy Creek basin are of excellent quality, being suitable for municipal, agricultural and most industrial uses. The concentration of the dissolved mineral content is usually about 75 ppm (parts per million) and the hardness about 50 ppm. The water is slightly acidic, with a range of pH values from 6.5 to 7.0. This report gives the estimated average discharge at gaging stations and 3 selected other sites in the basin for the 16-year period October 1938 to September 1954, used as a base period in this report. Duration-of-flow data for selected percentages of the time are shown for the period of observed record on North Boggy and Chickasaw Creeks; similar data are estimated for the base period 1938-54. The basic records in the basin are presented on a monthly and annual basis (through March 1958). For other sites at which discharge measurements have been made, a tabulation of observed discharge is given. These data have been correlated to obtain information on the low-water portion of the duration curves at 2 of the sites. (available as photostat copy only)

Regional flood frequency analysis in Triveneto (Italy): climate and scale controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persiano, Simone; Castellarin, Attilio; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

2016-04-01

The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review previously proposed procedures for design-flood estimation, such as national regionalization approaches. Our study focuses on the Triveneto region, a broad geographical area in North-eastern Italy consisting of the administrative regions of Trentino-Alto Adige, Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia. A reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto is available from the Italian NCR research project "VA.PI.", which developed a regional model using annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges that were collected up to the 80s by the former Italian Hydrometeorological Service. We consider a very detailed AMS database that we recently compiled for ~80 catchments located in Triveneto. Our dataset includes the historical data mentioned above, together with more recent data obtained from Regional Services and annual maximum peak streamflows extracted from inflow series to artificial reservoirs and provided by dam managers. All ~80 study catchments are characterized in terms of several geomorphologic and climatic descriptors. The main objectives of our study are: (1) to check whether climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime in Triveneto are similar to the controls that were recently found in Europe; (2) to verify the possible presence of trends as well as abrupt changes in the intensity and frequency of flood extremes by looking at changes in time of regional L-moments of annual maximum floods; (3) to assess the reliability and representativeness of the reference procedure for design flood estimation relative to flood data that were not included in the VA.PI. dataset (i.e. more recent data collected after the 80s and historical data provided by dam managers); (4) to develop an updated reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto by using a focused-pooling approach (i.e. Region of Influence, RoI).

Historical groundwater trends in northern New England and relations with streamflow and climatic variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2013-01-01

Water-level trends spanning 20, 30, 40, and 50 years were tested using month-end groundwater levels in 26, 12, 10, and 3 wells in northern New England (Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont), respectively. Groundwater levels for 77 wells were used in interannual correlations with meteorological and hydrologic variables related to groundwater. Trends in the contemporary groundwater record (20 and 30 years) indicate increases (rises) or no substantial change in groundwater levels in all months for most wells throughout northern New England. The highest percentage of increasing 20-year trends was in February through March, May through August, and October through November. Forty-year trend results were mixed, whereas 50-year trends indicated increasing groundwater levels. Whereas most monthly groundwater levels correlate strongly with the previous month's level, monthly levels also correlate strongly with monthly streamflows in the same month; correlations of levels with monthly precipitation are less frequent and weaker than those with streamflow. Groundwater levels in May through August correlate strongly with annual (water year) streamflow. Correlations of groundwater levels with streamflow data and the relative richness of 50- to 100-year historical streamflow data suggest useful proxies for quantifying historical groundwater levels in light of the relatively short and fragmented groundwater data records presently available.

Overview of water resources in and near Wichita and Affiliated Tribes treaty lands in western Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Abbott, Marvin M.; Tortorelli, R.L.; Becker, M.F.; Trombley, T.J.

2003-01-01

This report is an overview of water resources in and near the Wichita and Affiliated Tribes treaty lands in western Oklahoma. The tribal treaty lands are about 1,140 square miles and are bordered by the Canadian River on the north, the Washita River on the south, 98? west longitude on the east, and 98? 40' west longitude on the west. Seventy percent of the study area lies within the Washita River drainage basin and 30 percent of the area lies within the Canadian River drainage basin. March through June are months of greatest average streamflow, with 49 to 57 percent of the annual streamflow occurring in these four months. November through February, July, and August have the least average streamflow with only 26 to 36 percent of the annual streamflow occurring in these six months. Two streamflow-gaging stations, Canadian River at Bridgeport and Cobb Creek near Fort Cobb, indicated peak streamflows generally decrease with regulation. Two other streamflow-gaging stations, Washita River at Carnegie and Washita River at Anadarko, indicated a decrease in peak streamflows after regulation at less than the 100-year recurrence and an increase in peak streamflows greater than the 100-year recurrence. Canadian River at Bridgeport and Washita River at Carnegie had estimated annual low flows that generally increased with regulation. Cobb Creek near Fort Cobb had a decrease of estimated annual low flows after regulation. There are greater than 900 ground-water wells in the tribal treaty lands. Eighty percent of the wells are in Caddo County.The major aquifers in the study area are the Rush Springs Aquifer and portions of the Canadian River and Washita River valley alluvial aquifers. The Rush Springs Aquifer is used extensively for irrigation as well as industrial and municipal purposes, especially near population centers.The Canadian River and Washita River valley alluvial aquifers are not used extensively in the study area. Well yields from the Rush Springs Aquifer ranged from 11 to greater than 850 gallons per minute. The Rush Springs Aquifer is recharged by the infiltration of precipitation. The estimated recharge is about 1.80 inches per year evenly distributed over the outcrop of the aquifer in the study area. Principal factors affecting the water quality in the study area include geology, agricultural practices,and oil and gas production. Calcium, magnesium, sulfate, and bicarbonate are the dominant dissolved constituents in water in the study area. Interquartile dissolved-solids concentrations in surface-water samples in the study area generally were greater than interquartile concentrations in ground-water samples. Median dissolved-solids concentrations for ground-water samples from Canadian River, Ionine Creek, Spring Creek,and Washita River Basins, which ranged from 535 to 1,195 milligrams per liter,exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Secondary Drinking Water Standard of 500 milligrams per liter. Interquartile sulfate concentrations in surface-water samples in the study area generally were greater than interquartile concentrations in ground-water samples. Median sulfate concentrations from ground-water samples in the Canadian River, IonineCreek,and Spring Creek Basins, which ranged from 385 to 570 milligrams per liter, exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Secondary Drinking Water Standard of 250 milligrams per liter. Nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations in surface-water samples in the study area generally were less than concentrations in ground-water samples. The median nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentration in ground water was 9.8 milligrams per liter, suggesting almost one-half the ground-water samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Primary Drinking Water Standard (10 milligrams per liter). An estimated 100 million gallons of water per day were withdrawn from surface and ground water for all uses in

Compilation of streamflow statistics calculated from daily mean streamflow data collected during water years 1901–2015 for selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.; Ries, Kernell G.; Steeves, Peter A.

2017-10-16

Streamflow statistics are needed by decision makers for many planning, management, and design activities. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats Web application provides convenient access to streamflow statistics for many streamgages by accessing the underlying StreamStatsDB database. In 2016, non-interpretive streamflow statistics were compiled for streamgages located throughout the Nation and stored in StreamStatsDB for use with StreamStats and other applications. Two previously published USGS computer programs that were designed to help calculate streamflow statistics were updated to better support StreamStats as part of this effort. These programs are named “GNWISQ” (Get National Water Information System Streamflow (Q) files), updated to version 1.1.1, and “QSTATS” (Streamflow (Q) Statistics), updated to version 1.1.2.Statistics for 20,438 streamgages that had 1 or more complete years of record during water years 1901 through 2015 were calculated from daily mean streamflow data; 19,415 of these streamgages were within the conterminous United States. About 89 percent of the 20,438 streamgages had 3 or more years of record, and about 65 percent had 10 or more years of record. Drainage areas of the 20,438 streamgages ranged from 0.01 to 1,144,500 square miles. The magnitude of annual average streamflow yields (streamflow per square mile) for these streamgages varied by almost six orders of magnitude, from 0.000029 to 34 cubic feet per second per square mile. About 64 percent of these streamgages did not have any zero-flow days during their available period of record. The 18,122 streamgages with 3 or more years of record were included in the StreamStatsDB compilation so they would be available via the StreamStats interface for user-selected streamgages. All the statistics are available in a USGS ScienceBase data release.

Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2016-01-01

Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2016-12-01

Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

Suspended-Sediment Loads and Yields in the North Santiam River Basin, Oregon, Water Years 1999-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bragg, Heather M.; Sobieszczyk, Steven; Uhrich, Mark A.; Piatt, David R.

2007-01-01

The North Santiam River provides drinking water to the residents and businesses of the city of Salem, Oregon, and many surrounding communities. Since 1998, water-quality data, including turbidity, were collected continuously at monitoring stations throughout the basin as part of the North Santiam River Basin Turbidity and Suspended Sediment Study. In addition, sediment samples have been collected over a range of turbidity and streamflow values. Regression models were developed between the instream turbidity and suspended-sediment concentration from the samples collected from each monitoring station. The models were then used to estimate the daily and annual suspended-sediment loads and yields. For water years 1999-2004, suspended-sediment loads and yields were estimated for each station. Annual suspended-sediment loads and yields were highest during water years 1999 and 2000. A drought during water year 2001 resulted in the lowest suspended-sediment loads and yields for all monitoring stations. High-turbidity events that were unrelated or disproportional to increased streamflow occurred at several of the monitoring stations during the period of study. These events highlight the advantage of estimating suspended-sediment loads and yields from instream turbidity rather than from streamflow alone.

Modeling summer month hydrological drought probabilities in the United States using antecedent flow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Nelms, David L.

2017-01-01

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5-11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best-performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.

Spatial Correlation Of Streamflows: An Analytical Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-12-01

The interwoven space and time variability of climate and landscape properties results in complex and non-linear hydrological response of streamflow dynamics. Understanding how meteorologic and morphological characteristics of catchments affect similarity/dissimilarity of streamflow timeseries at their outlets represents a scientific challenge with application in water resources management, ecological studies and regionalization approaches aimed to predict streamflows in ungauged areas. In this study, we establish an analytical approach to estimate the spatial correlation of daily streamflows in two arbitrary locations within a given hydrologic district or river basin at seasonal and annual time scales. The method is based on a stochastic description of the coupled streamflow dynamics at the outlet of two catchments. The framework aims to express the correlation of daily streamflows at two locations along a river network as a function of a limited number of physical parameters characterizing the main underlying hydrological drivers, that include climate conditions, precipitation regime and catchment drainage rates. The proposed method portrays how heterogeneity of climate and landscape features affect the spatial variability of flow regimes along river systems. In particular, we show that frequency and intensity of synchronous effective rainfall events in the relevant contributing catchments are the main driver of the spatial correlation of daily discharge, whereas only pronounced differences in the drainage rate of the two basins bear a significant effect on the streamflow correlation. The topological arrangement of the two outlets also influences the underlying streamflow correlation, as we show that nested catchments tend to maximize the spatial correlation of flow regimes. The application of the method to a set of catchments in the South-Eastern US suggests the potential of the proposed tool for the characterization of spatial connections of flow regimes in the absence of discharge measurements.

Missouri StreamStats—A water-resources web application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Jarrett T.

2018-01-31

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) maintains and operates more than 8,200 continuous streamgages nationwide. Types of data that may be collected, computed, and stored for streamgages include streamgage height (water-surface elevation), streamflow, and water quality. The streamflow data allow scientists and engineers to calculate streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood (also known as the 100-year flood), the mean flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, which are used by managers to make informed water resource management decisions, at each streamgage location. Researchers, regulators, and managers also commonly need physical characteristics (basin characteristics) that describe the unique properties of a basin. Common uses for streamflow statistics and basin characteristics include hydraulic design, water-supply management, water-use appropriations, and flood-plain mapping for establishing flood-insurance rates and land-use zones. The USGS periodically publishes reports that update the values of basin characteristics and streamflow statistics at selected gaged locations (locations with streamgages), but these studies usually only update a subset of streamgages, making data retrieval difficult. Additionally, streamflow statistics and basin characteristics are most often needed at ungaged locations (locations without streamgages) for which published streamflow statistics and basin characteristics do not exist. Missouri StreamStats is a web-based geographic information system that was created by the USGS in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources to provide users with access to an assortment of tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain the most recent published streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for streamgage locations and to automatically calculate selected basin characteristics and estimate streamflow statistics at ungaged locations.

An investigation of the role of winter and spring precipitation as drivers of streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters using tree-ring reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, S. E.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Martin, J. T.; Pederson, G. T.

2017-12-01

The Missouri River supplies water to over 3 million basin residents and is a driving force for the nation's agricultural and energy sectors. However, with changing climate and declining snowpack in western North America, seasonal water yields are becoming less predictable, revealing a gap in our understanding of regional hydroclimate and drivers of streamflow within the basin. By analyzing the relationship between seasonal precipitation and streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters sub-basin, this study seeks to expand our knowledge based on the instrumental record alone. Here we present the first annually-resolved tree-ring reconstruction of spring precipitation for the Missouri River Headwaters. This reconstruction along with existing tree-ring reconstructions of April 1 snow-water equivalence (SWE) (Pederson et al. 2011) and natural streamflow (Martin, J.T. & Pederson, G.T., personal communication, June 2017) are used to test the feasibility of detecting a variable influence of winter and spring precipitation on streamflow over past centuries, and relative to the modern period. Initial analyses indicate that April 1 SWE is a significant control on streamflow, however, the April 1 SWE record does not fully account for anomalies observed in the streamflow record. This study therefore seeks to determine whether spring precipitation can account for some of this asynchronous variability observed between the April 1 SWE and streamflow records. Aside from improved understanding of the relationship between hydroclimate and streamflow in the headwaters of the Missouri River, our findings offer insights relating to changing contributions from snowmelt and spring precipitation, and long-term hydrologic variability and trends relevant to water resource management and planning efforts.

Impact of climate variability and anthropogenic activity on streamflow in the Three Rivers Headwater Region, Tibetan Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chong; Li, Daiqing; Gao, Yanni; Liu, Wenfeng; Zhang, Linbo

2017-07-01

Under the impacts of climate variability and human activities, there is violent fluctuation for streamflow in the large basins in China. Therefore, it is crucial to separate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow fluctuation for better water resources planning and management. In this study, the Three Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) was chosen as the study area. Long-term hydrological data for the TRHR were collected in order to investigate the changes in annual runoff during the period of 1956-2012. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, moving t test, Pettitt test, Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test, and the cumulative anomaly curve were used to identify trends and change points in the hydro-meteorological variables. Change point in runoff was identified in the three basins, which respectively occurred around the years 1989 and 1993, dividing the long-term runoff series into a natural period and a human-induced period. Then, the hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In the human-induced period, climate variability was the main factor that increased (reduced) runoff in LRB and YARB (YRB) with contribution of more than 90 %, while the increasing (decreasing) percentage due to human activities only accounted for less than 10 %, showing that runoff in the TRHR is more sensitive to climate variability than human activities. The intra-annual distribution of runoff shifted gradually from a double peak pattern to a single peak pattern, which was mainly influenced by atmospheric circulation in the summer and autumn. The inter-annual variation in runoff was jointly controlled by the East Asian monsoon, the westerly, and Tibetan Plateau monsoons.

Simulated impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading to Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Lorenz, David J

2016-01-01

Phosphorus (P) loading to the Great Lakes has caused various types of eutrophication problems. Future climatic changes may modify this loading because climatic models project changes in future meteorological conditions, especially for the key hydrologic driver — precipitation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to project how P loading may change from the range of projected climatic changes. To project the future response in P loading, the HydroSPARROW approach was developed that links results from two spatially explicit models, the SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) transport and fate watershed model and the water-quantity Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS was used to project changes in streamflow throughout the Lake Michigan Basin using downscaled meteorological data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) subjected to three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Downscaled GCMs project a + 2.1 to + 4.0 °C change in average-annual air temperature (+ 2.6 °C average) and a − 5.1% to + 16.7% change in total annual precipitation (+ 5.1% average) for this geographic area by the middle of this century (2045–2065) and larger changes by the end of the century. The climatic changes by mid-century are projected to result in a − 21.2% to + 8.9% change in total annual streamflow (− 1.8% average) and a − 29.6% to + 17.2% change in total annual P loading (− 3.1% average). Although the average projected changes in streamflow and P loading are relatively small for the entire basin, considerable variability exists spatially and among GCMs because of their variability in projected future precipitation.

45 years of non-stationary hydrology over a forest plantation growth cycle, Coalburn catchment, Northern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkinshaw, Stephen J.; Bathurst, James C.; Robinson, Mark

2014-11-01

The Coalburn research catchment (1.5 km2) in Kielder Forest, Northern England, is a long-term project to study the effect of upland afforestation on hydrology. There is now a unique 45-year record; making it Britain's longest running forest hydrology research catchment. The site was instrumented in 1967, ploughed and planted in 1972/73 and the trees have now reached maturity. Hourly meteorological data have been measured since 1993 and these have enabled hydrological simulations to be carried out using the Shetran model for the period 1993-2011. The results from this work show that after ploughing there was an increase of around 50-100 mm in annual streamflow compared with the original upland grassland vegetation. However, the mature trees now show a decrease of around 250-300 mm in the annual streamflow compared with the original vegetation and a decrease of around 350 mm in the annual streamflow compared with when the site was ploughed. The simulation results show very clearly the non-stationary nature of the catchment during 1993-2011 with an annual increase in intercepted evaporation and a decrease in discharge as the trees grow. Simulation results also show that peak discharges are higher for a cover of smaller trees compared with taller trees. However, the results suggest that the bigger the event the smaller is the difference, i.e. there is absolute convergence for the two different tree scenarios at higher discharges. The study shows how modelling can compensate for data deficiencies, to maximise outcomes. As a rare example of long-term analysis of non-stationary catchment behaviour it also provides real evidence of change that would otherwise have had to be inferred theoretically.

Geological controls on isotopic signatures of streamflow: results from a nested catchment experiment in Luxembourg (Europe)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Laurent; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.; Hissler, Christophe; Martinez-Carreras, Nuria; Gourdol, Laurent; Klaus, Julian; François Iffly, Jean; Barnich, François; Stewart, Mike K.

2014-05-01

Controls of geology and topography on hydrological metrics, like summer low flow (Grant and Tague, 2004) or dynamic storage (Sayama et al., 2011), have been identified in nested catchment experiments. However, most tracer-based studies on streamflow generation have been carried out in small (10 km2) homogenous catchments (Klaus and McDonnell, 2013). The controlling effects of catchment physiography on how catchments store and release water, and how this eventually controls stream isotope behaviour over a large range of scale are poorly understood. Here, we present results from a nested catchment analysis in the Alzette River basin (Luxembourg, Europe). Our hydro-climatological network consists of 16 recording streamgauges and 21 pluviographs. Catchment areas range from 0.47 to 285 km2, with clean and mixed combinations of distinct geologies ranging from schists to marls, sandstone, dolomite and limestone. Our objective was to identify geological controls on (i) winter runoff ratios, (ii) maximum storage and (iii) isotopic signatures in streamflow. For each catchment we determined average runoff ratios from winter season precipitation-discharge double-mass curves. Maximum catchment storage was based on the dynamic storage change approach of Sayama et al. (2011). Changes in isotopic signatures of streamflow were documented along individual catchment flow duration curves. We found strong correlations between average winter runoff ratios, maximum storage and the prevailing geological settings. Catchments with impermeable bedrock (e.g. marls or schists) were characterised by small storage potential and high average filling ratios. As a consequence, these catchments also exhibited the highest average runoff ratios. In catchments underlain by permeable bedrock (e.g. sandstone), storage potential was significantly higher and runoff ratios were considerably smaller. The isotopic signatures of streamflow showed large differences between catchments. In catchments dominated by permeable bedrock, isotopic signatures of streamflow remained stable throughout the entire flow duration curve consistent with a large storage and mixing potential. On less permeable bedrock substrate, we have observed that isotopic signatures in streamflow were much more variable, due to reduced storage volume and comparatively smaller mixing potential. Other metrics such as catchment size and flowpath length exerted a smaller secondary control on isotopic signatures of streamflow in the Alzette River sub-basins. Tague, C., Grant, G.E., 2004. A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette River Basin, Oregon. Water Resources Research, 40(4), doi:10.1029/2003WR002629 Sayama, T., McDonnell, J.J., Dhakal, A., Sullivan, K., 2011. How much water can a watershed store ? Hydrological Processes 25, 3899-3908. Klaus, J., McDonnell, J.J., 2013. Hydrograph separation using stable isotopes: Review and evaluation. Journal of Hydrology 505, 47-64.

Persistence and Detectability of Hydrologic Changes Following Multiple Timber Harvest Entries in the Oregon Coast Range: Alsea Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stednick, J. D.; Ice, G. G.; Hale, V. C.

2006-12-01

The original Alsea Watershed Study (1959-1973) was a paired study in the Oregon Coast Range designed to assess the physical and biological effects of timber harvesting on water and salmonid resources. The 3 streams chosen for study, Deer Creek, Flynn Creek, and Needle Branch, are tributaries of Drift Creek, which flows into Alsea Bay. The watersheds lie about 16 km from the Pacific Ocean, and have a maritime climate, with mean annual precipitation approximately 250 cm, almost all of which falls as rain from October through March. Flynn Creek served as an undisturbed control watershed, Deer Creek had 3 patch cuts (25% of the watershed area) with a streamside vegetation buffer, and Needle Branch was clearcut (85%) with no streamside buffer. The results of the original Alsea Study showed an increase in annual water yield and 3-day peak flows for Needle Branch, and no significant change for any streamflow metric (annual yield, peak flow, or low flows) on Deer Creek. Because the watersheds "generally appear to be returning to pre-logging conditions" the authors of the original study believed hydrologic recovery had occurred. The streamflow gauging network was reestablished in 1990 as the New Alsea Watershed Study. Additional streamflow monitoring (1990-1996) suggested that the watersheds deemed to be "recovered" still showed departures from the pre-treatment relations. Streamflow monitoring from the same period suggested 24 years for vegetation regrowth to return to hydrologic functions similar to the pretreatment. A literature review of paired watershed studies suggested that in the Pacific Northwest at least 25% of the watershed area needed to be harvested to be detectable with streamflow monitoring. Flynn Creek was designated a long-term Research Natural Area by the USDA Forest Service in 1976, and remains an undisturbed temperate coniferous forested watershed. Deer Creek had a second timber harvesting entry in 1978 of 20 ha and two units of 14.5 and 8.4 ha were logged in 1987 and 1988. Approximately 39% of the watershed has now been harvested. Since the original study, forest management on Needle Branch has included precommercial and commercial thinning. Approximately 25% of the middle third of the watershed was precommercially thinned in 1981. In 1997-1998 approximately 40% of this area was commercially thinned with a 30% basal area removal. With 15 years of additional streamflow data, are the 25% basal area removal and 24 year hydrologic recovery axioms true for the Alsea study watersheds?

Limits on characteristics of invertebrate assemblages associated with streamflow patterns in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, C.; Brasher, A.; May, J.

2007-12-01

River restoration depends on re-establishment of the range of physical and biological processes that comprise the river ecosystem. Streamflow is the definitive physical processes for river ecosystems, so hydrologic alteration represents a potentially significant issue to be addressed by restoration efforts. Given adaptation of lotic species to naturally variable streamflow patterns over evolutionary time scales, however, lotic communities are resilient to at least some forms of hydrologic variability. As a result, river restoration may be successful despite limited but biologically insignificant hydrologic alteration. The responses of benthic invertebrate assemblages to variation in streamflow patterns across the western United States were investigated to identify biologically important forms and magnitudes of hydrologic variability. Biological responses to streamflow patterns were analyzed in terms of ceilings and floors on invertebrate assemblage diversity and structure using a non-parametric screening procedure and quantile regression. Variability at daily and monthly time scales was the most common streamflow pattern associated with broad metrics of invertebrate assemblages including abundance; richness and relative abundance of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera and non-insects; dominance; and diversity. Low flow magnitude and annual variability were associated with richness and trophic structure. The frequency, magnitude, and duration of high flows were associated with abundance and richness. Longer term streamflow metrics (calculated over at least 5 years) were more important than recent flows (30 and 100 days prior to invertebrate sampling). The results can be used as general guidance about when hydrologic alteration is likely to be an important factor and what streamflow patterns may need to be re-established for successful river restoration.

Storage requirements for Arkansas streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patterson, James Lee

1968-01-01

The supply of good-quality surface water in Arkansas is abundant. owing to seasonal and annual variability of streamflow, however, storage must be provided to insure dependable year-round supplies in most of the State. Storage requirements for draft rates that are as much as 60 percent of the mean annual flow at 49 continuous-record gaging stations can be obtained from tabular data in this report. Through regional analyses of streamflow data, the State was divided into three regions. Draft-storage diagrams for each region provide a means of estimating storage requirements for sites on streams where data are scant, provided the drainage area, the mean annual flow, and the low-flow index are known. These data are tabulated for 53 gaging stations used in the analyses and for 132 partial-record sites where only base-flow measurements have been made. Mean annual flow can be determined for any stream whose drainage lies within the State by using the runoff map in this report. Low-flow indices can be estimated by correlating base flows, determined from several discharge measurements, with concurrent flows at nearby continuous-record gaging stations, whose low-flow indices have been determined.

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

2013-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). These peak flows are also needed for effective floodplain management. Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are in general projected to increase during the 21st century (Hayhoe and other, 2007). It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This Fact Sheet, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Scientific Investigations Report (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5080/.

Modeled intermittency risk for small streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Poff, N. LeRoy

2015-01-01

Longer, drier summers projected for arid and semi-arid regions of western North America under climate change are likely to have enormous consequences for water resources and river-dependent ecosystems. Many climate change scenarios for this region involve decreases in mean annual streamflow, late summer precipitation and late-summer streamflow in the coming decades. Intermittent streams are already common in this region, and it is likely that minimum flows will decrease and some perennial streams will shift to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in timing and magnitude of precipitation and runoff, combined with increases in temperature. To understand current intermittency among streams and analyze the potential for streams to shift from perennial to intermittent under a warmer climate, we analyzed historic flow records from streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Approximately two-thirds of 115 gaged stream reaches included in our analysis are currently perennial and the rest have some degree of intermittency. Dry years with combinations of high temperatures and low precipitation were associated with more zero-flow days. Mean annual flow was positively related to minimum flows, suggesting that potential future declines in mean annual flows will correspond with declines in minimum flows. The most important landscape variables for predicting low flow metrics were precipitation, percent snow, potential evapotranspiration, soils, and drainage area. Perennial streams in the UCRB that have high minimum-flow variability and low mean flows are likely to be most susceptible to increasing streamflow intermittency in the future.

Evaluation of Streamflow Requirements for Habitat Protection by Comparison to Streamflow Characteristics at Index Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Southern New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Parker, Gene W.; Richards, Todd A.

2003-01-01

Streamflow characteristics and methods for determining streamflow requirements for habitat protection were investigated at 23 active index streamflow-gaging stations in southern New England. Fish communities sampled near index streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts have a high percentage of fish that require flowing-water habitats for some or all of their life cycle. The relatively unaltered flow condition at these sites was assumed to be one factor that has contributed to this condition. Monthly flow durations and low flow statistics were determined for the index streamflow-gaging stations for a 25- year period from 1976 to 2000. Annual hydrographs were prepared for each index station from median streamflows at the 50-percent monthly flow duration, normalized by drainage area. A median monthly flow of 1 ft3/s/mi2 was used to split hydrographs into a high-flow period (November–May), and a low-flow period (June–October). The hydrographs were used to classify index stations into groups with similar median monthly flow durations. Index stations were divided into four regional groups, roughly paralleling the coast, to characterize streamflows for November to May; and into two groups, on the basis of base-flow index and percentage of sand and gravel in the contributing area, for June to October. For the June to October period, for index stations with a high base-flow index and contributing areas greater than 20 percent sand and gravel, median streamflows at the 50-percent monthly flow duration, normalized by drainage area, were 0.57, 0.49, and 0.46 ft3/s/mi2 for July, August, and September, respectively. For index stations with a low base-flow index and contributing areas less than 20 percent sand and gravel, median streamflows at the 50-percent monthly flow duration, normalized by drainage area, were 0.34, 0.28, and 0.27 ft3/s/mi2 for July, August, and September, respectively. Streamflow variability between wet and dry years can be characterized by use of the interquartile range of median streamflows at selected monthly flow durations. For example, the median Q50 discharge for August had an interquartile range of 0.30 to 0.87 ft3/s/mi2 for the high-flow group and 0.16 to 0.47 ft3/s/mi2 for the low-flow group. Streamflow requirements for habitat protection were determined for 23 index stations by use of three methods based on hydrologic records, the Range of Variability Approach, the Tennant method, and the New England Aquatic-Base-Flow method. Normalized flow management targets determined by the Range of Variability Approach for July, August, and September ranged between 0.21 and 0.84 ft3/s/mi2 for the low monthly flow duration group, and 0.37 and 1.27 ft3/s/mi2 for the high monthly flow duration group. Median streamflow requirements for habitat protection during summer for the 23 index streamflow-gaging stations determined by the Tennant method, normalized by drainage area, were 0.81, 0.61, and 0.21 ft3/s/mi2 for the Tennant 40-, 30-, and 10-percent of the mean annual flow methods, representing good, fair, and poor stream habitat conditions in summer, according to Tennant. New England Aquatic-Base-Flow streamflow requirements for habitat protection during summer were determined from median of monthly mean flows for August for index streamflow-gaging stations having drainage areas greater than 50 mi2 . For five index streamflow-gaging stations in the low median monthly flow group, the average median monthly mean streamflow for August, normalized by drainage area, was 0.48 ft3/s/mi2. Streamflow requirements for habitat protection were determined for riffle habitats near 10 index stations by use of two methods based on hydraulic ratings, the Wetted-Perimeter and R2Cross methods. Hydraulic parameters required by these methods were simulated by calibrated HEC-RAS models. Wetted-Perimeter streamflow requirements for habitat protection, normalized by drainage area, ranged between 0.13 and 0.58 ft3/s/mi2, and had a median value of 0.37 ft3/s/mi2. Streamflow requirements determined by the R2Cross 3-of-3 criteria method ranged between 0.39 and 2.1 ft3/s/mi2 , and had a median of 0.84 ft3/s/mi2. Streamflow requirements determined by the R2Cross 2-of-3 criteria method, normalized by drainage area, ranged between 0.16 and 0.85 ft3/s/mi2 and had a median of 0.36 ft3/s/mi2 , respectively. Streamflow requirements determined by the different methods were evaluated by comparison to streamflow statistics from the index streamflow-gaging stations.

Testing an automated method to estimate ground-water recharge from streamflow records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rutledge, A.T.; Daniel, C.C.

1994-01-01

The computer program, RORA, allows automated analysis of streamflow hydrographs to estimate ground-water recharge. Output from the program, which is based on the recession-curve-displacement method (often referred to as the Rorabaugh method, for whom the program is named), was compared to estimates of recharge obtained from a manual analysis of 156 years of streamflow record from 15 streamflow-gaging stations in the eastern United States. Statistical tests showed that there was no significant difference between paired estimates of annual recharge by the two methods. Tests of results produced by the four workers who performed the manual method showed that results can differ significantly between workers. Twenty-two percent of the variation between manual and automated estimates could be attributed to having different workers perform the manual method. The program RORA will produce estimates of recharge equivalent to estimates produced manually, greatly increase the speed od analysis, and reduce the subjectivity inherent in manual analysis.

Evaluation of Selected Model Constraints and Variables on Simulated Sustainable Yield from the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer System in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Czarnecki, John B.

2008-01-01

An existing conjunctive use optimization model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer was used to evaluate the effect of selected constraints and model variables on ground-water sustainable yield. Modifications to the optimization model were made to evaluate the effects of varying (1) the upper limit of ground-water withdrawal rates, (2) the streamflow constraint associated with the White River, and (3) the specified stage of the White River. Upper limits of ground-water withdrawal rates were reduced to 75, 50, and 25 percent of the 1997 ground-water withdrawal rates. As the upper limit is reduced, the spatial distribution of sustainable pumping increases, although the total sustainable pumping from the entire model area decreases. In addition, the number of binding constraint points decreases. In a separate analysis, the streamflow constraint associated with the White River was optimized, resulting in an estimate of the maximum sustainable streamflow at DeValls Bluff, Arkansas, the site of potential surface-water withdrawals from the White River for the Grand Prairie Area Demonstration Project. The maximum sustainable streamflow, however, is less than the amount of streamflow allocated in the spring during the paddlefish spawning period. Finally, decreasing the specified stage of the White River was done to evaluate a hypothetical river stage that might result if the White River were to breach the Melinda Head Cut Structure, one of several manmade diversions that prevents the White River from permanently joining the Arkansas River. A reduction in the stage of the White River causes reductions in the sustainable yield of ground water.

Statistical Approaches for Spatiotemporal Prediction of Low Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fangmann, A.; Haberlandt, U.

2017-12-01

An adequate assessment of regional climate change impacts on streamflow requires the integration of various sources of information and modeling approaches. This study proposes simple statistical tools for inclusion into model ensembles, which are fast and straightforward in their application, yet able to yield accurate streamflow predictions in time and space. Target variables for all approaches are annual low flow indices derived from a data set of 51 records of average daily discharge for northwestern Germany. The models require input of climatic data in the form of meteorological drought indices, derived from observed daily climatic variables, averaged over the streamflow gauges' catchments areas. Four different modeling approaches are analyzed. Basis for all pose multiple linear regression models that estimate low flows as a function of a set of meteorological indices and/or physiographic and climatic catchment descriptors. For the first method, individual regression models are fitted at each station, predicting annual low flow values from a set of annual meteorological indices, which are subsequently regionalized using a set of catchment characteristics. The second method combines temporal and spatial prediction within a single panel data regression model, allowing estimation of annual low flow values from input of both annual meteorological indices and catchment descriptors. The third and fourth methods represent non-stationary low flow frequency analyses and require fitting of regional distribution functions. Method three is subject to a spatiotemporal prediction of an index value, method four to estimation of L-moments that adapt the regional frequency distribution to the at-site conditions. The results show that method two outperforms successive prediction in time and space. Method three also shows a high performance in the near future period, but since it relies on a stationary distribution, its application for prediction of far future changes may be problematic. Spatiotemporal prediction of L-moments appeared highly uncertain for higher-order moments resulting in unrealistic future low flow values. All in all, the results promote an inclusion of simple statistical methods in climate change impact assessment.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States, Part 3-A, Ohio River Basin except Cumberland and Tennessee River Basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Speer, Paul R.; Gamble, Charles R.

1965-01-01

This report presents a means of determining the probable magnitude and frequency of floods of any recurrence interval from 1.1 to 50 years at most points on streams in the Ohio River basin except Cumberland and Tennessee River basins. Curves are defined that show the relation between the drainage area and the mean annual flood in eight hydrologic areas, and composite frequency curves define the relation of a flood of any recurrence interval from 1.1 to 50 years to the mean annual flood. These two relations are based upon gaging-station records having 10 or more years of record not materially affected by storage or diversion, and the results obtainable from them will represent the magnitude and frequency of natural floods within the range and recurrence intervals defined by the base data. The report also contains a compilation of flood records at all sites in the area at which records have been collected for 5 or more consecutive years. As far as was possible at each location for which discharge has been determined, the tabulations include all floods above a selected base. Where only gage heights have been obtained or where the data did not warrant computation of peach discharges above a selected base, only annual peaks are shown. The maximum known flood discharges for the streamflow stations and miscellaneous points except Ohio River main stem stations, together with areal floods of 10- and 50-year recurrence intervals, are plotted against the size of drainage area for each flood region and hydrologic area to provide a convenient means of judging the frequency of the maximum known floods that have been recorded for these points.

Changes in phosphorus concentrations and loads in the Assabet River, Massachusetts, October 2008 through April 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savoie, Jennifer G.; DeSimone, Leslie A.; Mullaney, John R.; Zimmerman, Marc J.; Waldron, Marcus C.

2016-10-24

Treated effluent discharged from municipal wastewater-treatment plants to the Assabet River in central Massachusetts includes phosphorus, which leads to increased growth of nuisance aquatic plants that decrease the river’s water quality and aesthetics in impounded reaches during the growing season. To improve the river’s water quality and aesthetics, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency approved a total maximum daily load for phosphorus in 2004 that directed the wastewater-treatment plants to reduce the amount of total phosphorus discharged to the river by 2012. The permitted total phosphorus monthly average of 0.75 milligrams per liter during the aquatic plant growing season (April 1 through October 31) was reduced by the total maximum daily load to a target of 0.1 milligrams per liter by 2012, and the nongrowing-season limit was unchanged at 1.0 milligrams per liter.From October 2008 through April 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, measured streamflow and collected weekly flow-proportional, composite samples of water from the Assabet River for analysis of concentrations of total phosphorus and orthophosphate. Streamflow and concentration data were used to estimate total phosphorus and orthophosphate loads in the river. The purpose of this monitoring effort was to evaluate phosphorus concentrations and loads in the river before, during, and after the wastewater-treatment-plant upgrades and to assess the effects of seasonal differences in permitted discharges. The locations of water-quality-monitoring stations, with respect to the Hudson and Ben Smith impoundments, enabled examination of effects of phosphorus entering and leaving the impoundments.Annual median concentrations of total phosphorus in wastewater-treatment plants were reduced by more than 80 percent with the plant upgrades. Measured instream annual median concentrations of total phosphorus in the Assabet River decreased by about 38 to 50 percent at three of the four monitoring stations following the wastewater-treatment-plant upgrades. At the station farthest upstream, the median total phosphorus concentration remained unchanged throughout the study; this may be attributed to the site location and potential resuspension of particulate organic matter during periods of increased streamflow. Annual median loads from the wastewater-treatment plants were reduced by up to 91 percent following the upgrades, instream annual median total phosphorus loads at the three downstream stations decreased by 71 to 76 percent, and instream orthophosphate loads at the three downstream stations decreased by 79 to 87 percent.Seasonal fluctuations (growing versus nongrowing) of total phosphorus and orthophosphate were observed instream before the upgrades. However, after the upgrades, fluctuations in phosphorus released from the treatment plants were slight and seasonal changes were typically not observed instream.Annual loads entering and leaving the two impoundments were inconclusive in determining whether the impoundments were sources or sinks of total phosphorus during the study. Total phosphorus loads entering the Hudson impoundment were consistently greater than those leaving; however, there was uncertainty about the loads at the monitoring station upstream from this impoundment. At the Ben Smith impoundment, total phosphorus and orthophosphate loads downstream were slightly greater than those upstream from the impoundment, but the differences may reflect additions from tributaries and overland runoff.Estimated instream total phosphorus concentrations and loads indicated that the decreases in total phosphorus in wastewater-treatment-plant discharges were accompanied by reductions measured in the Assabet River. A statistical analysis which incorporates the effect of varying flow conditions demonstrated significant reductions in total phosphorus concentrations after the wastewater-treatment-plant upgrades at three of the four instream monitoring stations. No significant change was observed at the most upstream location, the Assabet River at Port Street at Hudson, Massachusetts (station number 01096835), which may have been affected by flow-related resuspension of particulate phosphorus.

History of irrigation and characteristics of streamflow in Nebraska, part of the North and South Platte River basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shaffer, F. Butler

1976-01-01

Statistics on streamflow for selected periods of time are presented for 28 gaging sites in the Nebraska part of the North and South Platte River basins. Monthly mean discharges, monthly means in percent of annual runoff, standard deviations, coefficients of variation, and monthly extremes are given. Also tabulated are probabilities of high discharges for 1 day and for 3, 7, 15, 30, and 60 consecutive days and of low discharges for 1 day and for 3, 7, 14, 30, and 60 consecutive days. All statistics are based on records that are representative of 1973 conditions of streamflow. Brief historical data are given for 27 of the principal irrigation canals diverting from the North and South Platte Rivers. (Woodard-USGS)

2011 Souris River flood—Will it happen again?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nustad, Rochelle A.; Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

2016-09-29

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000 square kilometer basin in the provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the state of North Dakota. Record setting rains in May and June of 2011 led to record flooding with peak annual streamflow values (762 cubic meters per second [m3/s]) more than twice that of any previously recorded peak streamflow and more than five times the estimated 100 year postregulation streamflow (142 m3/s) at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging station above Minot, North Dakota. Upstream from Minot, N. Dak., the Souris River is regulated by three reservoirs in Saskatchewan (Rafferty, Boundary, and Alameda) and Lake Darling in North Dakota. During the 2011 flood, the city of Minot, N. Dak., experienced devastating damages with more than 4,000 homes flooded and 11,000 evacuated. As a result, the Souris River Basin Task Force recommended the U.S. Geological Survey (in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission) develop a model for estimating the probabilities of future flooding and drought. The model that was developed took on four parts: (1) looking at past climate, (2) predicting future climate, (3) developing a streamflow model in response to certain climatic variables, and (4) combining future climate estimates with the streamflow model to predict future streamflow events. By taking into consideration historical climate record and trends in basin response to various climatic conditions, it was determined flood risk will remain high in the Souris River Basin until the wet climate state ends.

Water resources data for Pennsylvania, water year 1996. Volume 2. Susquehanna and Potomac River basins. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1995-30 September 1996

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Durlin, R.R.; Schaffstall, W.P.

1997-07-01

This report, Volume, 2, contains (1) discharge records for 81 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, 16 partial-record stations, and 20 special study and miscellaneous streamflow sites; (2) elevation and contents records for 12 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water-quality records for 7 gaging stations and 46 ungaged stream sites; and (4) water-level records for 30 ground-water network observation wells. Site locations are shown in figures throughout the report.

Water-resources investigations in Wisconsin, 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maertz, D.E.

1993-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study are to provide continuous discharge records for selected rivers at specific sites to supply the needs for: regulation, analytical studies, definition of statistical properties, trends analysis, determination of the occurrence, and distribution of water in streams for planning. The project is also designed to determine lake levels and to provide discharge for floods, low-flow conditions, and for water-quality investigations. Requests for streamflow data and information relating to streamflow in Wisconsin are answered. Basic data are published annually in "Water Resources Data Wisconsin."

Calculating weighted estimates of peak streamflow statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Berenbrock, Charles; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

2012-01-01

According to the Federal guidelines for flood-frequency estimation, the uncertainty of peak streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flow at a streamgage, can be reduced by combining the at-site estimate with the regional regression estimate to obtain a weighted estimate of the flow statistic. The procedure assumes the estimates are independent, which is reasonable in most practical situations. The purpose of this publication is to describe and make available a method for calculating a weighted estimate from the uncertainty or variance of the two independent estimates.

Potential effects of landscape change on water supplies in the presence of reservoir storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guswa, Andrew J.; Hamel, Perrine; Dennedy-Frank, P. James

2017-04-01

This work presents a set of methods to evaluate the potential effects of landscape changes on water supplies. Potential impacts are a function of the seasonality of precipitation, losses of water to evapotranspiration and deep recharge, the flow-regulating ability of watersheds, and the availability of reservoir storage. For a given reservoir capacity, simple reservoir simulations with daily precipitation and streamflow enable the determination of the maximum steady supply of water for both the existing watershed and a hypothetical counter-factual that has neither flow-regulating benefits nor any losses. These two supply values, representing land use end-members, create an envelope that defines the water-supply service and bounds the effect of landscape change on water supply. These bounds can be used to discriminate between water supplies that may be vulnerable to landscape change and those that are unlikely to be affected. Two indices of the water-supply service exhibit substantial variability across 593 watersheds in the continental United States. Rcross, the reservoir capacity at which landscape change is unlikely to have any detrimental effect on water supply has an interquartile range of 0.14-4% of mean-annual-streamflow. Steep, forested watersheds with seasonal climates tend to have greater service values, and the indices of water-supply service are positively correlated with runoff ratios during the months with lowest flows.

The 7Q10 in South Carolina water-quality regulation: Nearly fifty years later

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Cantrell, Wade M.

2010-01-01

The annual minimum 7-day average streamflow with a 10-year recurrence interval, often referred to as the 7Q10, has a long history of being an important low-flow statistic used in water-quality management in South Carolina as evidenced by its adoption into South Carolina law in 1967. State agencies, such as the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control and the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, use such lowflow statistics to determine Wasteload Allocations for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System discharges, develop Total Maximum Daily Loads for streams, prepare the State Water Plan, and restrict the quantity of water that can be transferred out of basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, working cooperatively with the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, is updating low-flow statistics at continuous-record streamflow gages in South Carolina on a basin-by-basin approach. Such statistics are influenced by length of record and hydrologic conditions under which the record was collected. Statewide low-flow statistics in South Carolina were last updated in 1987. Since that time several droughts have occurred with the most severe occurring from 1998-2002 and the most recent occurring from 2006-2009. The low-flow statistics for the Pee Dee River basin were the first to be completed in this ongoing investigation.

Exploring the Recurrence of Contributing Area Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C.; Mengistu, S. G.

2015-12-01

Recent years have witnessed a progression towards using models as a tool for predicting high frequency contributing area dynamics in catchments. High frequency contributing area modeling can become a viable alternative to the current approach for estimating contributing area in Canadian catchments, which assumes a static portion of the catchment's gross drainage area. The current approach does not consider the spatiotemporal variability of contributing area dynamics, and therefore, represents an important challenge for characterizing the recurrence that saturated areas in the catchment can actively connect and contribute to the main channel in response to runoff producing snowmelt or storm events. Such characterizations are useful to assess the relative importance of different areas within a catchment for runoff generation, and nutrient production and transport. In this study, the PDMROF configuration of Environment Canada's MESH model has been applied to simulate areas actively contributing to daily streamflow from four nested catchments of the Qu'Appelle River basin. The return periods of annual maximum contributing areas were computed using Weibull's equation. The research also evaluates if runoff magnitude is always associated with the same extent and recurrence of contributing area and investigates how contributing area and streamflow return periods relate. This work provides the foundation for evaluating the effect of environmental changes (mainly land use and climate associated changes) on contributing area recurrence by conducting similar investigations under various environmental change scenarios.

Streamflow variability and classification using false nearest neighbor method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vignesh, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sivakumar, B.

2015-12-01

Understanding regional streamflow dynamics and patterns continues to be a challenging problem. The present study introduces the false nearest neighbor (FNN) algorithm, a nonlinear dynamic-based method, to examine the spatial variability of streamflow over a region. The FNN method is a dimensionality-based approach, where the dimension of the time series represents its variability. The method uses phase space reconstruction and nearest neighbor concepts, and identifies false neighbors in the reconstructed phase space. The FNN method is applied to monthly streamflow data monitored over a period of 53 years (1950-2002) in an extensive network of 639 stations in the contiguous United States (US). Since selection of delay time in phase space reconstruction may influence the FNN outcomes, analysis is carried out for five different delay time values: monthly, seasonal, and annual separation of data as well as delay time values obtained using autocorrelation function (ACF) and average mutual information (AMI) methods. The FNN dimensions for the 639 streamflow series are generally identified to range from 4 to 12 (with very few exceptional cases), indicating a wide range of variability in the dynamics of streamflow across the contiguous US. However, the FNN dimensions for a majority of the streamflow series are found to be low (less than or equal to 6), suggesting low level of complexity in streamflow dynamics in most of the individual stations and over many sub-regions. The FNN dimension estimates also reveal that streamflow dynamics in the western parts of the US (including far west, northwestern, and southwestern parts) generally exhibit much greater variability compared to that in the eastern parts of the US (including far east, northeastern, and southeastern parts), although there are also differences among 'pockets' within these regions. These results are useful for identification of appropriate model complexity at individual stations, patterns across regions and sub-regions, interpolation and extrapolation of data, and catchment classification. An attempt is also made to relate the FNN dimensions with catchment characteristics and streamflow statistical properties.

The Comparison Of Predictability Of Annual Evapotranspiration And Streamflow Between Humid And Non-Humid Catchments Over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Sun, F.; Liu, W.; Wang, H.

2017-12-01

Rapid socioeconomic growth in China is stretching the gap between water supply and demand in recent decades. Expectation of changing climate and its potential threats on the water security of China is now calling for improved methodologies to reliably estimate hydrologic components like annual evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow (Q). Nonetheless, knowledge of these components in humid and non-humid regions is relative limited in current literature. Based on spatially distributed catchments across China, we characterize these components along with plausible explanations. Using Budyko framework, we first found that annual ET is predictable in non-humid regions but not so much in humid regions; annual Q is predictable in humid regions but less reliable in non-humid regions. The neglecting annual water storage change (ΔS) in water balance affects the estimation and variability of annual Q in non-humid catchments more than that in humid catchments, which directly brings about the complexity of predictability of annual Q in non-humid region. While to the ET predictability, the neglecting annual ΔS affects its estimation and variability more in humid catchments than that in non-humid catchments. Moreover, the considerable proportion of contribution from P, PET and their covariance to ET variability in humid catchments against absolutely dominant control of P in non-humid catchments can, to some extent, explain the differences in ET predictability. This provides one possible way to improve the prediction ET and Q, and we can well predict ET in non-humid catchments and Q in humid catchments so far based on commonly used hydrological models.

Effects of brush management on the hydrologic budget and water quality in and adjacent to Honey Creek State Natural Area, Comal County, Texas, 2001-10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banta, J. Ryan; Slattery, Richard N.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service, the Edwards Region Grazing Lands Conservation Initiative, the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, the San Antonio River Authority, the Edwards Aquifer Authority, Texas Parks and Wildlife, the Guadalupe Blanco River Authority, and the San Antonio Water System, evaluated the hydrologic effects of ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) removal as a brush management conservation practice in and adjacent to the Honey Creek State Natural Area in Comal County, Tex. By removing the ashe juniper and allowing native grasses to reestablish in the area as a brush management conservation practice, the hydrology in the watershed might change. Using a simplified mass balance approach of the hydrologic cycle, the incoming rainfall was distributed to surface water runoff, evapotranspiration, or groundwater recharge. After hydrologic data were collected in adjacent watersheds for 3 years, brush management occurred on the treatment watershed while the reference watershed was left in its original condition. Hydrologic data were collected for another 6 years. Hydrologic data include rainfall, streamflow, evapotranspiration, and water quality. Groundwater recharge was not directly measured but potential groundwater recharge was calculated using a simplified mass balance approach. The resulting hydrologic datasets were examined for differences between the watersheds and between pre- and post-treatment periods to assess the effects of brush management. The streamflow to rainfall relation (expressed as event unit runoff to event rainfall relation) did not change between the watersheds during pre- and post-treatment periods. The daily evapotranspiration rates at the reference watershed and treatment watershed sites exhibited a seasonal cycle during the pre- and post-treatment periods, with intra- and interannual variability. Statistical analyses indicate the mean difference in daily evapotranspiration rates between the two watershed sites is greater during the post-treatment than the pre-treatment period. Average annual rainfall, streamflow, evapotranspiration, and potential groundwater-recharge conditions were incorporated into a single hydrologic budget (expressed as a percentage of the average annual rainfall) applied to each watershed before and after treatment to evaluate the effects of brush management. During the post-treatment period, the percent average annual unit runoff in the reference watershed was similar to that in the treatment watershed, however, the difference in percentages of average annual evapotranspiration and potential groundwater recharge were more appreciable between the reference and treatment watersheds than during the pre-treatment period. Using graphical comparisons, no notable differences in major ion or nutrient concentrations were found between samples collected at the reference watershed (site 1C) and treatment watershed (site 2C) during pre- and post-treatment periods. Suspended-sediment loads were calculated from samples collected at sites 1C and 2T. The relation between suspended-sediment loads and streamflow calculated from samples collected from sites 1C and 2T did not exhibit a statistically significant difference during the pre-treatment period, whereas during the post-treatment period, relation between suspended-sediment loads and streamflow did exhibit a statistically significant difference. The suspended-sediment load to streamflow relations indicate that for the same streamflow, the suspended-sediment loads calculated from site 2T were generally less than suspended-sediment loads calculated from site 1C during the post-treatment period.

Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States

Treesearch

Liang Wei; Timothy E. Link; Andrew T. Hudak; John D. Marshall; Kathleen L. Kavanagh; John T. Abatzoglou; Hang Zhou; Robert E. Pangle; Gerald N. Flerchinger

2016-01-01

Annual streamflows have decreased across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years; however, in some watersheds, observed annual flows have increased. Physically based models are useful tools to reveal the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long-term water balances by explicitly simulating the internal...

Comparison of base flows to selected streamflow statistics representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.

2012-01-01

Base flows were compared with published streamflow statistics to assess climate variability and to determine the published statistics that can be substituted for annual and seasonal base flows of unregulated streams in West Virginia. The comparison study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, Division of Water and Waste Management. The seasons were defined as winter (January 1-March 31), spring (April 1-June 30), summer (July 1-September 30), and fall (October 1-December 31). Differences in mean annual base flows for five record sub-periods (1930-42, 1943-62, 1963-69, 1970-79, and 1980-2002) range from -14.9 to 14.6 percent when compared to the values for the period 1930-2002. Differences between mean seasonal base flows and values for the period 1930-2002 are less variable for winter and spring, -11.2 to 11.0 percent, than for summer and fall, -47.0 to 43.6 percent. Mean summer base flows (July-September) and mean monthly base flows for July, August, September, and October are approximately equal, within 7.4 percentage points of mean annual base flow. The mean of each of annual, spring, summer, fall, and winter base flows are approximately equal to the annual 50-percent (standard error of 10.3 percent), 45-percent (error of 14.6 percent), 75-percent (error of 11.8 percent), 55-percent (error of 11.2 percent), and 35-percent duration flows (error of 11.1 percent), respectively. The mean seasonal base flows for spring, summer, fall, and winter are approximately equal to the spring 50- to 55-percent (standard error of 6.8 percent), summer 45- to 50-percent (error of 6.7 percent), fall 45-percent (error of 15.2 percent), and winter 60-percent duration flows (error of 8.5 percent), respectively. Annual and seasonal base flows representative of the period 1930-2002 at unregulated streamflow-gaging stations and ungaged locations in West Virginia can be estimated using previously published values of statistics and procedures.

Optimization of Water Resources and Agricultural Activities for Economic Benefit in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LIM, J.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The limited water resources available for irrigation are a key constraint for the important agricultural sector of Colorado's economy. As climate change and groundwater depletion reshape these resources, it is essential to understand the economic potential of water resources under different agricultural production practices. This study uses a linear programming optimization at the county spatial scale and annual temporal scales to study the optimal allocation of water withdrawal and crop choices. The model, AWASH, reflects streamflow constraints between different extraction points, six field crops, and a distinct irrigation decision for maize and wheat. The optimized decision variables, under different environmental, social, economic, and physical constraints, provide long-term solutions for ground and surface water distribution and for land use decisions so that the state can generate the maximum net revenue. Colorado, one of the largest agricultural producers, is tested as a case study and the sensitivity on water price and on climate variability is explored.

Streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for selected locations on the Upper Yellowstone and Bighorn Rivers, Montana and Wyoming, 1928-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.

2014-01-01

Major floods in 1996 and 1997 intensified public debate about the effects of human activities on the Yellowstone River. In 1999, the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council was formed to address conservation issues on the river. The Yellowstone River Conservation District Council partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to carry out a cumulative effects study on the main stem of the Yellowstone River. The cumulative effects study is intended to provide a basis for future management decisions within the watershed. Streamflow statistics, such as flow-frequency data calculated for unregulated and regulated streamflow conditions, are a necessary component of the cumulative effects study. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, calculated low-flow frequency data and general monthly and annual statistics for unregulated and regulated streamflow conditions for the Upper Yellowstone and Bighorn Rivers for the 1928–2002 study period; these data are presented in this report. Unregulated streamflow represents flow conditions during the 1928–2002 study period if there had been no water-resources development in the Yellowstone River Basin. Regulated streamflow represents estimates of flow conditions during the 1928–2002 study period if the level of water-resources development existing in 2002 was in place during the entire study period.

Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

The highly variable timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated basins across western North America is an important consequence, and indicator, of climate fluctuations. Changes in the timing of snowmelt-derived streamflow from 1948 to 2002 were investigated in a network of 302 western North America gauges by examining the center of mass for flow, spring pulse onset dates, and seasonal fractional flows through trend and principal component analyses. Statistical analysis of the streamflow timing measures with Pacific climate indicators identified local and key large-scale processes that govern the regionally coherent parts of the changes and their relative importance. Widespread and regionally coherent trends toward earlier onsets of springtime snowmelt and streamflow have taken place across most of western North America, affecting an area that is much larger than previously recognized. These timing changes have resulted in increasing fractions of annual flow occurring earlier in the water year by 1-4 weeks. The immediate (or proximal) forcings for the spatially coherent parts of the year-to-year fluctuations and longer-term trends of streamflow timing have been higher winter and spring temperatures. Although these temperature changes are partly controlled by the decadal-scale Pacific climate mode [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)], a separate and significant part of the variance is associated with a springtime warming trend that spans the PDO phases. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.

Assessment of hydrology, water quality, and trace elements in selected placer-mined creeks in the birch creek watershed near central, Alaska, 2001-05

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Ben W.; Langley, Dustin E.

2007-01-01

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, completed an assessment of hydrology, water quality, and trace-element concentrations in streambed sediment of the upper Birch Creek watershed near Central, Alaska. The assessment covered one site on upper Birch Creek and paired sites, upstream and downstream from mined areas, on Frying Pan Creek and Harrison Creek. Stream-discharge and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at other selected mined and unmined sites helped characterize conditions in the upper Birch Creek watershed. The purpose of the project was to provide the Bureau of Land Management with baseline information to evaluate watershed water quality and plan reclamation efforts. Data collection began in September 2001 and ended in September 2005. There were substantial geomorphic disturbances in the stream channel and flood plain along several miles of Harrison Creek. Placer mining has physically altered the natural stream channel morphology and removed streamside vegetation. There has been little or no effort to re-contour waste rock piles. During high-flow events, the abandoned placer-mine areas on Harrison Creek will likely contribute large quantities of sediment downstream unless the mined areas are reclaimed. During 2004 and 2005, no substantial changes in nutrient or major-ion concentrations were detected in water samples collected upstream from mined areas compared with water samples collected downstream from mined areas on Frying Pan Creek and Harrison Creek that could not be attributed to natural variation. This also was true for dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance-a measure of total dissolved solids. Sample sites downstream from mined areas on Harrison Creek and Frying Pan Creek had higher median suspended-sediment concentrations, by a few milligrams per liter, than respective upstream sites. However, it is difficult to attach much importance to the small downstream increase, less than 10 milligrams per liter, in median suspended-sediment concentration for either basin. During low-flow conditions in 2004 and 2005, previously mined areas investigated on Harrison Creek and on Frying Pan Creek did not contribute substantial suspended sediments to sample sites downstream from the mined areas. No substantial mining-related water- or sediment-quality problems were detected at any of the sites investigated in the upper Birch Creek watershed during low-flow conditions. Average annual streamflow and precipitation were near normal in 2002 and 2003. Drought conditions, extreme forest fire impact, and low annual streamflow set apart the 2004 and 2005 summer seasons. Daily mean streamflow for upper Birch Creek varied throughout the period of record-from maximums of about 1,000 cubic feet per second to minimums of about 20 cubic feet per second. Streamflow increased and decreased rapidly in response to rainfall and rapid snowmelt events because the steep slopes, thin soil cover, and permafrost areas in the watershed have little capacity to retain runoff. Median suspended-sediment concentrations for the 115 paired samples from Frying Pan Creek and 101 paired samples from Harrison Creek were less than the 20 milligrams per liter total maximum daily load. The total maximum daily load was set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the upper Birch Creek basin in 1996. Suspended-sediment paired-sample data were collected using automated samplers in 2004 and 2005, primarily during low-flow conditions. Suspended-sediment concentrations in grab samples from miscellaneous sites ranged from less than 1 milligram per liter during low-flow conditions to 1,386 milligrams per liter during a high-flow event on upper Birch Creek. Streambed-sediment samples were collected at six sites on Harrison Creek, two sites on Frying Pan Creek, and one site on upper Birch Creek. Trace-element concentrations of mercury, lead, and zinc in streambed sedimen

Determination of Baseline Periods of Record for Selected Streamflow-Gaging Stations in New Jersey for Determining Ecologically Relevant Hydrologic Indices (ERHI)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.; Baker, Ronald J.

2008-01-01

Hydrologic changes in New Jersey stream basins resulting from human activity can affect the flow and ecology of the streams. To assess future changes in streamflow resulting from human activity an understanding of the natural variability of streamflow is needed. The natural variability can be classified using Ecologically Relevant Hydrologic Indices (ERHIs). ERHIs are defined as selected streamflow statistics that characterize elements of the flow regime that substantially affect biological health and ecological sustainability. ERHIs are used to quantitatively characterize aspects of the streamflow regime, including magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, and rate of change. Changes in ERHI values can occur as a result of human activity, and changes in ERHIs over time at various stream locations can provide information about the degree of alteration in aquatic ecosystems at or near those locations. New Jersey streams can be divided into four classes (A, B, C, or D), where streams with similar ERHI values (determined from cluster analysis) are assigned the same stream class. In order to detect and quantify changes in ERHIs at selected streamflow-gaging stations, a 'baseline' period is needed. Ideally, a baseline period is a period of continuous daily streamflow record at a gaging station where human activity along the contributing stream reach or in the stream's basin is minimal. Because substantial urbanization and other development had already occurred before continuous streamflow-gaging stations were installed, it is not possible to identify baseline periods that meet this criterion for many reaches in New Jersey. Therefore, the baseline period for a considerably altered basin can be defined as a period prior to a substantial human-induced change in the drainage basin or stream reach (such as regulations or diversions), or a period during which development did not change substantially. Index stations (stations with minimal urbanization) were defined as streamflow-gaging stations in basins that contain less than 15 percent urban land use throughout the period of continuous streamflow record. A minimum baseline period of record for each stream class was determined by comparing the variability of selected ERHIs among consecutive 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year time increments for index stations. On the basis of this analysis, stream classes A and D were assigned a minimum of 20 years of continuous record as a baseline period and stream classes B and C, a minimum of 10 years. Baseline periods were calculated for 85 streamflow-gaging stations in New Jersey with 10 or more years of continuous daily streamflow data, and the values of 171 ERHIs also were calculated for these baseline periods for each station. Baseline periods were determined by using historical streamflow-gaging station data, estimated changes in impervious surface in the drainage basin, and statistically significant changes in annual base flow and runoff. Historical records were reviewed to identify years during which regulation, diversions, or withdrawals occurred in the drainage basins. Such years were not included in baseline periods of record. For some sites, the baseline period of record was shorter than the minimum period of record specified for the given stream class. In such cases, the baseline period was rated as 'poor'. Impervious surface was used as an indicator of urbanization and change in streamflow characteristics owing to increases in storm runoff and decreases in base flow. Percentages of impervious surface were estimated for 85 streamflow-gaging stations from available municipal population-density data by using a regression model. Where the period of record was sufficiently long, all years after the impervious surface exceeded 10 to 20 percent were excluded from the baseline period. The percentage of impervious surface also was used as a criterion in assigning qualitative ratings to baseline periods. Changes in trends of annual base fl

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water resources and evaluation of water-management alternatives for the Chamokane Creek basin, Stevens County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, D. Matthew; Kahle, Sue C.

2012-01-01

A three-dimensional, transient numerical model of groundwater and surface-water flow was constructed for Chamokane Creek basin to better understand the groundwater-flow system and its relation to surface-water resources. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-management agencies and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate the effects of potential increases in groundwater pumping on groundwater and surface-water resources in the basin. The Chamokane Creek model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated model, GSFLOW. GSFLOW was developed to simulate coupled groundwater and surface-water resources. The model uses 1,000-foot grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 102 rows and 106 columns. Six hydrogeologic units in the model are represented using eight model layers. Daily precipitation and temperature were spatially distributed and subsequent groundwater recharge was computed within GSFLOW. Streamflows in Chamokane Creek and its major tributaries are simulated in the model by routing streamflow within a stream network that is coupled to the groundwater-flow system. Groundwater pumpage and surface-water diversions and returns specified in the model were derived from monthly and annual pumpage values previously estimated from another component of this study and new data reported by study partners. The model simulation period is water years 1980-2010 (October 1, 1979, to September 30, 2010), but the model was calibrated to the transient conditions for water years 1999-2010 (October 1, 1998, to September 30, 2010). Calibration was completed by using traditional trial-and-error methods and automated parameter-estimation techniques. The model adequately reproduces the measured time-series groundwater levels and daily streamflows. At well observation points, the mean difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is 7 feet with a root-mean-square error divided by the total difference in water levels of 4.7 percent. Simulated streamflow was compared to measured streamflow at the USGS streamflow-gaging station-Chamokane Creek below Falls, near Long Lake (12433200). Annual differences between measured and simulated streamflow for the site ranged from -63 to 22 percent. Calibrated model output includes a 31-year estimate of monthly water budget components for the hydrologic system. Five model applications (scenarios) were completed to obtain a better understanding of the relation between groundwater pumping and surface-water resources. The calibrated transient model was used to evaluate: (1) the connection between the upper- and middle-basin groundwater systems, (2) the effect of surface-water and groundwater uses in the middle basin, (3) the cumulative impacts of claims registry use and permit-exempt wells on Chamokane Creek streamflow, (4) the frequency of regulation due to impacted streamflow, and (5) the levels of domestic and stockwater use that can be regulated. The simulation results indicated that streamflow is affected by existing groundwater pumping in the upper and middle basins. Simulated water-management scenarios show streamflow increased relative to historical conditions as groundwater and surface-water withdrawals decreased.

In ecoregions across western USA streamflow increases during post-wildfire recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wine, Michael L.; Cadol, Daniel; Makhnin, Oleg

2018-01-01

Continued growth of the human population on Earth will increase pressure on already stressed terrestrial water resources required for drinking water, agriculture, and industry. This stress demands improved understanding of critical controls on water resource availability, particularly in water-limited regions. Mechanistic predictions of future water resource availability are needed because non-stationary conditions exist in the form of changing climatic conditions, land management paradigms, and ecological disturbance regimes. While historically ecological disturbances have been small and could be neglected relative to climatic effects, evidence is accumulating that ecological disturbances, particularly wildfire, can increase regional water availability. However, wildfire hydrologic impacts are typically estimated locally and at small spatial scales, via disparate measurement methods and analysis techniques, and outside the context of climate change projections. Consequently, the relative importance of climate change driven versus wildfire driven impacts on streamflow remains unknown across the western USA. Here we show that considering wildfire in modeling streamflow significantly improves model predictions. Mixed effects modeling attributed 2%-14% of long-term annual streamflow to wildfire effects. The importance of this wildfire-linked streamflow relative to predicted climate change-induced streamflow reductions ranged from 20%-370% of the streamflow decrease predicted to occur by 2050. The rate of post-wildfire vegetation recovery and the proportion of watershed area burned controlled the wildfire effect. Our results demonstrate that in large areas of the western USA affected by wildfire, regional predictions of future water availability are subject to greater structural uncertainty than previously thought. These results suggest that future streamflows may be underestimated in areas affected by increased prevalence of hydrologically relevant ecological disturbances such as wildfire.

Connecticut Highlands Technical Report - Documentation of the Regional Rainfall-Runoff Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.; Bjerklie, David M.

2010-01-01

This report provides the supporting data and describes the data sources, methodologies, and assumptions used in the assessment of existing and potential water resources of the Highlands of Connecticut and Pennsylvania (referred to herein as the “Highlands”). Included in this report are Highlands groundwater and surface-water use data and the methods of data compilation. Annual mean streamflow and annual mean base-flow estimates from selected U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations were computed using data for the period of record through water year 2005. The methods of watershed modeling are discussed and regional and sub-regional water budgets are provided. Information on Highlands surface-water-quality trends is presented. USGS web sites are provided as sources for additional information on groundwater levels, streamflow records, and ground- and surface-water-quality data. Interpretation of these data and the findings are summarized in the Highlands study report.

Glacierized headwater streams as aquifer recharge corridors, subarctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lilledahl, Anna K.; Gadeke, Anne; O'Neel, Shad; Gatesman, T. A.; Douglas, T. A.

2017-01-01

Arctic river discharge has increased in recent decades although sources and mechanisms remain debated. Abundant literature documents permafrost thaw and mountain glacier shrinkage over the past decades. Here we link glacier runoff to aquifer recharge via a losing headwater stream in subarctic Interior Alaska. Field measurements in Jarvis Creek (634 km2), a subbasin of the Tanana and Yukon Rivers, show glacier meltwater runoff as a large component (15–28%) of total annual streamflow despite low glacier cover (3%). About half of annual headwater streamflow is lost to the aquifer (38 to 56%). The estimated long-term change in glacier-derived aquifer recharge exceeds the observed increase in Tanana River base flow. Our findings suggest a linkage between glacier wastage, aquifer recharge along the headwater stream corridor, and lowland winter discharge. Accordingly, glacierized headwater streambeds may serve as major aquifer recharge zones in semiarid climates and therefore contributing to year-round base flow of lowland rivers.

Methods for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2010-01-01

Flow statistics can be used to provide decision makers with surface-water information needed for activities such as water-supply permitting, flow regulation, and other water rights issues. Flow statistics could be needed at any location along a stream. Most often, streamflow statistics are needed at ungaged sites, where no flow data are available to compute the statistics. Methods are presented in this report for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma. Flow statistics included the (1) annual (period of record), (2) seasonal (summer-autumn and winter-spring), and (3) 12 monthly duration statistics, including the 20th, 50th, 80th, 90th, and 95th percentile flow exceedances, and the annual mean-flow (mean of daily flows for the period of record). Flow statistics were calculated from daily streamflow information collected from 235 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Oklahoma and areas in adjacent states. A drainage-area ratio method is the preferred method for estimating flow statistics at an ungaged location that is on a stream near a gage. The method generally is reliable only if the drainage-area ratio of the two sites is between 0.5 and 1.5. Regression equations that relate flow statistics to drainage-basin characteristics were developed for the purpose of estimating selected flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams that are not near gaging stations on the same stream. Regression equations were developed from flow statistics and drainage-basin characteristics for 113 unregulated gaging stations. Separate regression equations were developed by using U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in regions with similar drainage-basin characteristics. These equations can increase the accuracy of regression equations used for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics at ungaged stream locations in Oklahoma. Streamflow-gaging stations were grouped by selected drainage-basin characteristics by using a k-means cluster analysis. Three regions were identified for Oklahoma on the basis of the clustering of gaging stations and a manual delineation of distinguishable hydrologic and geologic boundaries: Region 1 (western Oklahoma excluding the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles), Region 2 (north- and south-central Oklahoma), and Region 3 (eastern and central Oklahoma). A total of 228 regression equations (225 flow-duration regressions and three annual mean-flow regressions) were developed using ordinary least-squares and left-censored (Tobit) multiple-regression techniques. These equations can be used to estimate 75 flow-duration statistics and annual mean-flow for ungaged streams in the three regions. Drainage-basin characteristics that were statistically significant independent variables in the regression analyses were (1) contributing drainage area; (2) station elevation; (3) mean drainage-basin elevation; (4) channel slope; (5) percentage of forested canopy; (6) mean drainage-basin hillslope; (7) soil permeability; and (8) mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation. The accuracy of flow-duration regression equations generally decreased from high-flow exceedance (low-exceedance probability) to low-flow exceedance (high-exceedance probability) . This decrease may have happened because a greater uncertainty exists for low-flow estimates and low-flow is largely affected by localized geology that was not quantified by the drainage-basin characteristics selected. The standard errors of estimate of regression equations for Region 1 (western Oklahoma) were substantially larger than those standard errors for other regions, especially for low-flow exceedances. These errors may be a result of greater variability in low flow because of increased irrigation activities in this region. Regression equations may not be reliable for sites where the drainage-basin characteristics are outside the range of values of independent vari

Mercury in Indiana watersheds: retrospective for 2001-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risch, Martin R.; Baker, Nancy T.; Fowler, Kathleen K.; Egler, Amanda L.; Lampe, David C.

2010-01-01

Information about total mercury and methylmercury concentrations in water samples and mercury concentrations in fish-tissue samples was summarized for 26 watersheds in Indiana that drain most of the land area of the State. Mercury levels were interpreted with information on streamflow, atmospheric mercury deposition, mercury emissions to the atmosphere, mercury in wastewater, and landscape characteristics. Unfiltered total mercury concentrations in 411 water samples from streams in the 26 watersheds had a median of 2.32 nanograms per liter (ng/L) and a maximum of 28.2 ng/L. When these concentrations were compared to Indiana water-quality criteria for mercury, 5.4 percent exceeded the 12-ng/L chronic-aquatic criterion, 59 percent exceeded the 1.8-ng/L Great Lakes human-health criterion, and 72.5 percent exceeded the 1.3-ng/L Great Lakes wildlife criterion. Mercury concentrations in water were related to streamflow, and the highest mercury concentrations were associated with the highest streamflows. On average, 67 percent of total mercury in streams was in a particulate form, and particulate mercury concentrations were significantly lower downstream from dams than at monitoring stations not affected by dams. Methylmercury is the organic fraction of total mercury and is the form of mercury that accumulates and magnifies in food chains. It is made from inorganic mercury by natural processes under specific conditions. Unfiltered methylmercury concentrations in 411 water samples had a median of 0.10 ng/L and a maximum of 0.66 ng/L. Methylmercury was a median 3.7 percent and maximum 64.8 percent of the total mercury in 252 samples for which methylmercury was reported. The percentages of methylmercury in water samples were significantly higher downstream from dams than at other monitoring stations. Nearly all of the total mercury detected in fish tissue was assumed to be methylmercury. Fish-tissue samples from the 26 watersheds had wet-weight mercury concentrations that exceeded the 0.3 milligram per kilogram (mg/kg) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) methylmercury criterion in 12.4 percent of the 1,731 samples. The median wet-weight concentration in the fish-tissue samples was 0.13 mg/kg, and the maximum was 1.07 mg/kg. A coarse-scale analysis of all fish-tissue data in each watershed and a fine-scale analysis of data within 5 kilometers (km) of the downstream end of each watershed showed similar results overall. Mercury concentrations in fish-tissue samples were highest in the White River watershed in southern Indiana and the Fall Creek watershed in central Indiana. In fish-tissue samples within 5 km of the downstream end of a watershed, the USEPA methylmercury criterion was exceeded by 45 percent of mercury concentrations from the White River watershed and 40 percent of the mercury concentration from the Fall Creek watershed. A clear relation between mercury concentrations in fish-tissue samples and methylmercury concentrations in water was not observed in the data from watersheds in Indiana. Average annual atmospheric mercury wet-deposition rates were mapped with data at 156 locations in Indiana and four surrounding states for 2001-2006. These maps revealed an area in southeastern Indiana with high mercury wet-deposition rates-from 15 to 19 micrograms per square meter per year (ug/m2/yr). Annual atmospheric mercury dry-deposition rates were estimated with an inferential method by using concentrations of mercury species in air samples at three locations in Indiana. Mercury dry deposition-rates were 5.6 to 13.6 ug/m2/yr and were 0.49 to 1.4 times mercury wet-deposition rates. Total mercury concentrations were detected in 96 percent of 402 samples of wastewater effluent from 50 publicly owned treatment works in the watersheds; the median concentration was 3.0 ng/L, and the maximum was 88 ng/L. When these concentrations were compared to Indiana water-quality criteria for mercury, 12 percent exceeded the 12-n

Characteristics and Classification of Least Altered Streamflows in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Parker, Gene W.; Richards, Todd A.

2008-01-01

Streamflow records from 85 streamflow-gaging stations at which streamflows were considered to be least altered were used to characterize natural streamflows within southern New England. Period-of-record streamflow data were used to determine annual hydrographs of median monthly flows. The shapes and magnitudes of annual hydrographs of median monthly flows, normalized by drainage area, differed among stations in different geographic areas of southern New England. These differences were gradational across southern New England and were attributed to differences in basin and climate characteristics. Period-of-record streamflow data were also used to analyze the statistical properties of daily streamflows at 61 stations across southern New England by using L-moment ratios. An L-moment ratio diagram of L-skewness and L-kurtosis showed a continuous gradation in these properties between stations and indicated differences between base-flow dominated and runoff-dominated rivers. Streamflow records from a concurrent period (1960-2004) for 61 stations were used in a multivariate statistical analysis to develop a hydrologic classification of rivers in southern New England. Missing records from 46 of these stations were extended by using a Maintenance of Variation Extension technique. The concurrent-period streamflows were used in the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration and Hydrologic Index Tool programs to determine 224 hydrologic indices for the 61 stations. Principal-components analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the number of hydrologic indices to 20 that provided nonredundant information. The PCA also indicated that the major patterns of variability in the dataset are related to differences in flow variability and low-flow magnitude among the stations. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to classify stations into groups with similar hydrologic properties. The cluster analysis classified rivers in southern New England into two broad groups: (1) base-flow dominated rivers, whose statistical properties indicated less flow variability and high magnitudes of low flow, and (2) runoff-dominated rivers, whose statistical properties indicated greater flow variability and lower magnitudes of low flow. A four-cluster classification further classified the runoff-dominated streams into three groups that varied in gradient, elevation, and differences in winter streamflow conditions: high-gradient runoff-dominated rivers, northern runoff-dominated rivers, and southern runoff-dominated rivers. A nine-cluster division indicated that basin size also becomes a distinguishing factor among basins at finer levels of classification. Smaller basins (less than 10 square miles) were classified into different groups than larger basins. A comparison of station classifications indicated that a classification based on multiple hydrologic indices that represent different aspects of the flow regime did not result in the same classification of stations as a classification based on a single type of statistic such as a monthly median. River basins identified by the cluster analysis as having similar hydrologic properties tended to have similar basin and climate characteristics and to be in close proximity to one another. Stations were not classified in the same cluster on the basis of geographic location alone; as a result, boundaries cannot be drawn between geographic regions with similar streamflow characteristics. Rivers with different basin and climate characteristics were classified in different clusters, even if they were in adjacent basins or upstream and downstream within the same basin.

Channel degradation in southeastern Nebraska Rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, Kenneth L.; Weiss, Linda S.; ,

1995-01-01

Many stream channels in southeastern Nebraska were dredged and straightened during 1904-15. The resulting channels were both shorter and steeper than the original channels. Tests for time trends were conducted using the nonparametric Kendall tau test to see if the channels have responded to these changes. Tests were conducted on the stages associated with specific discharges and on measurement characteristics at gaging stations. Tests also were conducted on hydrologic forcing variables (annual mean precipitation, annual peak discharges, annual mean discharge, and annual mean base flows). The null hypothesis (that the data were free from trend) was rejected for stages associated with the mean of the annual discharges for 6 of 7 gaging stations in the study area, but was accepted for all 3 gages on the main stem of the Missouri River. The trends at the 6 streamflow gaging stations were for decreasing stages (degrading channels) for specific discharges. The rates of change ranged from about 0.2 to 0.5 m per decade. Mean stream bed elevations computed for individual discharge measurements at these streamflow gaging stations confirmed that the channels are degrading. However, neither the precipitation nor flow variables show evidence of trends. The tendency for the channels to degrade thus cannot be attributed to changes in runoff characteristics and are assumed to be a response to the channel modifications in the early 1900's. Indications are that the channels presently are continuing to degrade.

Dissolved-Solids Load in Henrys Fork Upstream from the Confluence with Antelope Wash, Wyoming, Water Years 1970-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foster, Katharine; Kenney, Terry A.

2010-01-01

Annual dissolved-solids load at the mouth of Henrys Fork was estimated by using data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 09229500, Henrys Fork near Manila, Utah. The annual dissolved-solids load for water years 1970-2009 ranged from 18,300 tons in 1977 to 123,300 tons in 1983. Annual streamflows for this period ranged from 14,100 acre-feet in 1977 to 197,500 acre-feet in 1983. The 25-percent trimmed mean dissolved-solids load for water years 1970-2009 was 44,300 tons per year at Henrys Fork near Manila, Utah. Previous simulations using a SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model for dissolved solids specific to water year 1991 conditions in the Upper Colorado River Basin predicted an annual dissolved-solids load of 25,000 tons for the Henrys Fork Basin upstream from Antelope Wash. On the basis of computed dissolved-solids load data from Henrys Fork near Manila, Utah, together with estimated annual dissolved-solids load from Antelope Wash and Peoples Canal, this prediction was adjusted to 37,200 tons. As determined by simulations with the Upper Colorado River Basin SPARROW model, approximately 56 percent (14,000 tons per year) of the dissolved-solids load at Henrys Fork upstream from Antelope Wash is associated with the 21,500 acres of irrigated agricultural lands in the upper Henrys Fork Basin.

Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Liang, Xu; Wetzel, Suzanne W.; Wood, Eric F.

1997-04-01

A grid network version of the two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) macroscale hydrologic model is described. VIC-2L is a hydrologically based soil- vegetation-atmosphere transfer scheme designed to represent the land surface in numerical weather prediction and climate models. The grid network scheme allows streamflow to be predicted for large continental rivers. Off-line (observed and estimated surface meteorological and radiative forcings) applications of the model to the Columbia River (1° latitude-longitude spatial resolution) and Delaware River (0.5° resolution) are described. The model performed quite well in both applications, reproducing the seasonal hydrograph and annual flow volumes to within a few percent. Difficulties in reproducing observed streamflow in the arid portion of the Snake River basin are attributed to groundwater-surface water interactions, which are not modeled by VIC-2L.

Impact of Fire on Streamflow in Southern California Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, R. R.; Hope, A. S.

2007-12-01

Post-fire streamflow dynamics in Southern California have primarily been studied using small watershed experiments. These studies have concluded that increases in streamflow are a consequence of an increase in soil hydrophobicity, along with a decrease in transpiration rates associated with less vegetation. Extrapolation of the results from these studies to large watersheds (>50 km2) has been limited because large watersheds may not burn completely and other processes may emerge at these scales. In this study, six paired watersheds were used to test the hypothesis that there is an increase in streamflow following fire in large California watersheds (54-632 km2). The percentage of area burned in these watersheds ranged from 23 to 100%. The effects of fires on streamflow were examined at annual, seasonal, and monthly time-steps for the five years following fire. In addition, this study attempted to address fundamental regression assumptions that are commonly ignored, and create uncertainty bounds for evaluating the changes in streamflow before and after fire. Results of this experiment indicate that differences in pre and post-fire streamflows, at all time scales and in all the test catchments, were generally within the 95% uncertainty bounds of the regression equation. It is uncertain whether the apparent lack of significant difference between the pre and post-fire streamflow reflects no actual change in streamflow or is a consequence of the errors and uncertainties in the streamflow data. Furthermore, persistent drought in the years following fire made it challenging to interpret differences in pre and post-fire flows using the paired watershed methodology. The effects of hydrophobicity on post-fire streamflow may have been reduced by a limited number of storm flow events during these drought years. Under these dry conditions, soil moisture was the dominant control over transpirational losses, minimizing the effects of a reduction in vegetation cover. These results indicate that the consequences of fires are likely to vary depending on the post-fire meteorological conditions. The study addresses the challenges of using non-experimental watersheds for paired watershed studies.

Historical perspective of statewide streamflows during the 2002 and 1977 droughts in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard

2005-01-01

Since 1890, Colorado has experienced a number of widespread drought periods; the most recent statewide drought began during 1999 and includes 2002, a year characterized by precipitation, snowpack accumulation, and streamflows that were much lower than normal. Because the drought of 2002 had a substantial effect on streamflows in Colorado, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, began a study in 2004 to analyze statewide streamflows during 2002 and develop a historical perspective of those streamflows. The purpose of this report is to describe an analysis of streamflows recorded throughout Colorado during the drought of 2002, as well as other drought years such as 1977, and to provide some historical perspective of drought-diminished streamflows in Colorado. Because most streamflows in Colorado are derived from melting of mountain snowpacks during April through July, streamflows primarily were analyzed for the snowmelt (high-flow) period, but streamflows also were analyzed for the winter (low-flow) period. The snowmelt period is defined as April 1 through September 30 and the winter period is defined as October 1 through March 31. Historical daily average streamflows were analyzed on the basis of 7, 30, 90, and 180 consecutive-day periods (N-day) for 154 selected stations in Colorado. Methods used for analysis of the N-day snowmelt and winter streamflows include evaluation of trends in the historical streamflow records, computation of the rank of each annual N-day streamflow value for each station, analysis for years other than 2002 and 1977 with drought-diminished streamflows, and frequency analysis (on the basis of nonexceedance probability) of the 180-day streamflows. Ranking analyses for the N-day snowmelt streamflows indicated that streamflows during 2002 were ranked as the lowest or second lowest historical values at 114-123 stations, or about 74-80 percent of the stations; by comparison, the N-day snowmelt streamflows during 1977 were ranked as the lowest or second lowest historical values at 69-87 stations, or about 47-59 percent of the stations. Many of the stations in the mountainous headwaters where snowmelt streamflows were ranked lowest during 2002 were ranked second lowest during 1977. These results indicate that snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were considerably more diminished than those during 1977. The 180-day snowmelt streamflows were ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 90 percent of the stations during 2002 and were ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 77 percent of the stations during 1977. Other years during which the 180-day snowmelt streamflows were ranked among the five lowest values at a substantial percentage of stations include 1934, 1954, 1963, and 1981, but the percentages of stations with 180-day snowmelt streamflows ranked among the five lowest values were smaller during those years than during 2002 and 1977. Frequency analysis of snowmelt streamflows indicated that recurrence intervals for the 180-day snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were greater than 50 years for about 57 percent of the stations and were more than 100 years for about 14 percent of the stations. By comparison, recurrence intervals for the 180-day snowmelt streamflows during 1977 were greater than 50 years only for about 15 percent of the stations and were more than 100 years only for about 1 percent of the stations. Generally, snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were more diminished and have higher recurrence intervals than snowmelt streamflows during 1977. The N-day winter streamflows during 2002 and 1977 were not ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 86-103 stations, or about 58-70 percent of the stations, compared to about 10-27 percent of the stations for the N-day snowmelt streamflows. These results indicate that winter streamflows during the 2002 and 1977 droughts were diminished to a lesser extent than t

Estimation of streamflow, base flow, and nitrate-nitrogen loads in Iowa using multiple linear regression models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.

2005-01-01

Nineteen variables, including precipitation, soils and geology, land use, and basin morphologic characteristics, were evaluated to develop Iowa regression models to predict total streamflow (Q), base flow (Qb), storm flow (Qs) and base flow percentage (%Qb) in gauged and ungauged watersheds in the state. Discharge records from a set of 33 watersheds across the state for the 1980 to 2000 period were separated into Qb and Qs. Multiple linear regression found that 75.5 percent of long term average Q was explained by rainfall, sand content, and row crop percentage variables, whereas 88.5 percent of Qb was explained by these three variables plus permeability and floodplain area variables. Qs was explained by average rainfall and %Qb was a function of row crop percentage, permeability, and basin slope variables. Regional regression models developed for long term average Q and Qb were adapted to annual rainfall and showed good correlation between measured and predicted values. Combining the regression model for Q with an estimate of mean annual nitrate concentration, a map of potential nitrate loads in the state was produced. Results from this study have important implications for understanding geomorphic and land use controls on streamflow and base flow in Iowa watersheds and similar agriculture dominated watersheds in the glaciated Midwest. (JAWRA) (Copyright ?? 2005).

Evaluating water quality ecosystem services of wetlands under historic and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K.

2013-12-01

Potential hydrologic effects of climate change have been assessed extensively; however, possible impacts of changing climate on in-stream water quality at the watershed scale have received little study. We assessed potential impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality in the mountainous Sprague River watershed, Oregon, USA, where high total phosphorus (TP) and sediment loads are associated with lake eutrophication and mortality of endangered fish species. Additionally, we analyzed water quality impacts of wetland and riparian zone loss and gain under present-day climate and future climate scenarios. We utilized the hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with six distinct climate scenarios derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models to assess magnitude and direction of trends in streamflow, sediment and TP fluxes in the mid-21st century (2030-2059). Model results showed little significant trend in average annual streamflow under most climate scenarios, but trends in annual and monthly streamflow, sediment, and TP fluxes were more pronounced and were generally increasing. Results also suggest that future loss of present-day wetlands and riparian zones under land use or climatic change could result in substantial increases in sediment and TP loads at the Sprague River outlet.

Regionalization of winter low-flow characteristics of Tennessee streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bingham, R.H.

1986-01-01

Procedures were developed for estimating winter (December-April) low flows at ungaged stream sites in Tennessee based on surface geology and drainage area size. One set of equations applies to West Tennessee streams, and another set applies to Middle and East Tennessee streams. The equations do not apply to streams where flow is significantly altered by the activities of man. Standard errors of estimate of equations for West Tennessee are 22% - 35% and for middle and East Tennessee 31% - 36%. Statistical analyses indicate that summer low-flow characteristics are the same as annual low-flow characteristics, and that winter low flows are larger than annual low flows. Streamflow-recession indexes, in days per log cycle of decrease in discharge, were used to account for effects of geology on low flow of streams. The indexes in Tennessee range from 32 days/log cycle for clay and shale to 350 days/log cycle for gravel and sand, indicating different aquifer characteristics of the geologic units that contribute to streamflows during periods of no surface runoff. Streamflow-recession rate depends primarily on transmissivity and storage characteristics of the aquifers, and the average distance from stream channels to basin divides. Geology and drainage basin size are the most significant variables affecting low flow in Tennessee streams according to regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Streamflow and water-quality properties in the West Fork San Jacinto River Basin and regression models to estimate real-time suspended-sediment and total suspended-solids concentrations and loads in the West Fork San Jacinto River in the vicinity of Conroe, Texas, July 2008-August 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, Lee J.; Oden, Jeannette H.

2010-01-01

To better understand the hydrology (streamflow and water quality) of the West Fork San Jacinto River Basin downstream from Lake Conroe near Conroe, Texas, including spatial and temporal variation in suspended-sediment (SS) and total suspended-solids (TSS) concentrations and loads, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Houston-Galveston Area Council and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, measured streamflow and collected continuous and discrete water-quality data during July 2008-August 2009 in the West Fork San Jacinto River Basin downstream from Lake Conroe. During July 2008-August 2009, discrete samples were collected and streamflow measurements were made over the range of flow conditions at two streamflow-gaging stations on the West Fork San Jacinto River: West Fork San Jacinto River below Lake Conroe near Conroe, Texas (station 08067650) and West Fork San Jacinto River near Conroe, Texas (station 08068000). In addition to samples collected at these two main monitoring sites, discrete sediment samples were also collected at five additional monitoring sites to help characterize water quality in the West Fork San Jacinto River Basin. Discrete samples were collected semimonthly, regardless of flow conditions, and during periods of high flow resulting from storms or releases from Lake Conroe. Because the period of data collection was relatively short (14 months) and low flow was prevalent during much of the study, relatively few samples collected were representative of the middle and upper ranges of historical daily mean streamflows. The largest streamflows tended to occur in response to large rainfall events and generally were associated with the largest SS and TSS concentrations. The maximum SS and TSS concentrations at station 08067650 (180 and 133 milligrams per liter [mg/L], respectively) were on April 19, 2009, when the instantaneous streamflow was the third largest associated with a discrete sample at the station. SS concentrations were 25 mg/L or less in 26 of 29 environmental samples and TSS concentrations were 25 mg/L or less in 25 of 28 environmental samples. Median SS and TSS concentrations were 7.0 and 7.6 mg/L, respectively. At station 08068000, the maximum SS concentration (1,270 mg/L) was on April 19, 2009, and the maximum TSS concentration (268 mg/L) was on September 18, 2008. SS concentrations were 25 mg/L or less in 16 of 27 of environmental samples and TSS concentrations were 25 mg/L or less in 18 of 26 environmental samples at the station. Median SS and TSS concentrations were 18.0 and 14.0 mg/L, respectively. The maximum SS and TSS concentrations for all five additional monitoring sites were 3,110 and 390 mg/L, respectively, and the minimum SS and TSS concentrations were 5.0 and 1.0 mg/L, respectively. Median concentrations ranged from 14.0 to 54.0 mg/L for SS and from 11.0 to 14.0 mg/L for TSS. Continuous measurements of streamflow and selected water-quality properties at stations 08067650 and 08068000 were evaluated as possible variables in regression equations developed to estimate SS and TSS concentrations and loads. Surrogate regression equations were developed to estimate SS and TSS loads by using real-time turbidity and streamflow data; turbidity and streamflow resulted in the best regression models for estimating near real-time SS and TSS concentrations for stations 08097650 and 08068000. Relatively large errors are associated with the regression-computed SS and TSS concentrations; the 90-percent prediction intervals for SS and TSS concentrations were (+/-)48.9 and (+/-)43.2 percent, respectively, for station 08067650 and (+/-)47.7 and (+/-)43.2 percent, respectively, for station 08068000. Regression-computed SS and TSS concentrations were corrected for bias before being used to compute SS and TSS loads. The total estimated SS and TSS loads during July 2008-August 2009 were about 3,540 and 1,900 tons, respectively, at station 08067650 and about 156,000 an

Assessment of wildland fire impacts on watershed annual water yield: Analytical framework and case studies in the United States

DOE PAGES

Hallema, Dennis W.; Sun, Ge; Caldwell, Peter V.; ...

2016-11-29

More than 50% of water supplies in the conterminous United States originate on forestland or rangeland and are potentially under increasing stress as a result of larger and more severe wildfires. Little is known, however, about the long-term impacts of fire on annual water yield and the role of climate variability within this context. We here propose a framework for evaluating wildland fire impacts on streamflow that combines double-mass analysis with new methods (change point analysis, climate elasticity modeling, and process-based modeling) to distinguish between multiyear fire and climate impacts. The framework captures a wide range of fire types, watershedsmore » characteristics, and climate conditions using streamflow data, as opposed to other approaches requiring paired watersheds. The process is illustrated with three case studies. A watershed in Arizona experienced a +266% increase in annual water yield in the 5 years after a wildfire, where +219% was attributed to wildfire and +24% to precipitation trends. In contrast, a California watershed had a lower (–64%) post-fire net water yield, comprised of enhanced flow (+38%) attributed to wildfire offset (–102%) by lower precipitation in the post-fire period. Changes in streamflow within a watershed in South Carolina had no apparent link to periods of prescribed burning but matched a very wet winter and reports of storm damage. As a result, the presented framework is unique in its ability to detect and quantify fire or other disturbances, even if the date or nature of the disturbance event is uncertain, and regardless of precipitation trends.« less

Assessment of wildland fire impacts on watershed annual water yield: Analytical framework and case studies in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hallema, Dennis W.; Sun, Ge; Caldwell, Peter V.

More than 50% of water supplies in the conterminous United States originate on forestland or rangeland and are potentially under increasing stress as a result of larger and more severe wildfires. Little is known, however, about the long-term impacts of fire on annual water yield and the role of climate variability within this context. We here propose a framework for evaluating wildland fire impacts on streamflow that combines double-mass analysis with new methods (change point analysis, climate elasticity modeling, and process-based modeling) to distinguish between multiyear fire and climate impacts. The framework captures a wide range of fire types, watershedsmore » characteristics, and climate conditions using streamflow data, as opposed to other approaches requiring paired watersheds. The process is illustrated with three case studies. A watershed in Arizona experienced a +266% increase in annual water yield in the 5 years after a wildfire, where +219% was attributed to wildfire and +24% to precipitation trends. In contrast, a California watershed had a lower (–64%) post-fire net water yield, comprised of enhanced flow (+38%) attributed to wildfire offset (–102%) by lower precipitation in the post-fire period. Changes in streamflow within a watershed in South Carolina had no apparent link to periods of prescribed burning but matched a very wet winter and reports of storm damage. As a result, the presented framework is unique in its ability to detect and quantify fire or other disturbances, even if the date or nature of the disturbance event is uncertain, and regardless of precipitation trends.« less

Methods and equations for estimating peak streamflow per square mile in Virginia’s urban basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Models are presented that describe Virginia urban area annual peak streamflow per square mile based on basin percent urban area and basin drainage area. Equations are provided to estimate Virginia urban peak flow per square mile of basin drainage area in each of the following annual exceedance probability categories: 0.995, 0.99, 0.95, 0.9, 0.8, 0.67, 0.5, 0.43, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 (recurrence intervals of 1.005, 1.01, 1.05, 1.11, 1.25, 1.49, 2.0, 2.3, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively). Equations apply to Virginia drainage basins ranging in size from no less than 1.2 mi2 to no more than 2,400 mi2 containing at least 10 percent urban area, and not more than 96 percent urban area. A total of 115 Virginia drainage basins were analyzed. Actual-by-predicted plots and leverage plots for response variables and explanatory variables in each peak-flow annual exceedance probability category indicate robust model fits and significant explanatory power. Equations for 8 of 15 urban peak-flow response surface models yield R-square values greater than 0.8. Relations identified in statistical models, describing significant increases in urban peak stream discharges as basin urban area increases, affirm empirical relations reported in past studies of change in stream discharge, lag times, and physical streamflow processes, most notably those detailed for urban areas in northern Virginia.

Climatic controls on the snowmelt hydrology of the northern Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, G.T.; Gray, S.T.; Ault, T.; Marsh, W.; Fagre, D.B.; Bunn, A.G.; Woodhouse, C.A.; Graumlich, L.J.

2011-01-01

The northern Rocky Mountains (NRMs) are a critical headwaters region with the majority of water resources originating from mountain snowpack. Observations showing declines in western U.S. snowpack have implications for water resources and biophysical processes in high-mountain environments. This study investigates oceanic and atmospheric controls underlying changes in timing, variability, and trends documented across the entire hydroclimatic-monitoring system within critical NRM watersheds. Analyses were conducted using records from 25 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 148 1 April snow course records, stream gauge records from 14 relatively unimpaired rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations. Over the past four decades, midelevation SNOTEL records show a tendency toward decreased snowpack with peak snow water equivalent (SWE) arriving and melting out earlier. Temperature records show significant seasonal and annual decreases in the number of frost days (days ???0??C) and changes in spring minimum temperatures that correspond with atmospheric circulation changes and surface-albedo feedbacks in March and April. Warmer spring temperatures coupled with increases in mean and variance of spring precipitation correspond strongly to earlier snowmeltout, an increased number of snow-free days, and observed changes in streamflow timing and discharge. The majority of the variability in peak and total annual snowpack and streamflow, however, is explained by season-dependent interannual-to-interdecadal changes in atmospheric circulation associated with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Over recent decades, increased spring precipitation appears to be buffering NRM total annual streamflow from what would otherwise be greater snow-related declines in hydrologic yield. Results have important implications for ecosystems, water resources, and long-lead-forecasting capabilities. ?? 2011 American Meteorological Society.

Streamflow measurements, basin characteristics, and streamflow statistics for low-flow partial-record stations operated in Massachusetts from 1989 through 1996

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.

1999-01-01

A network of 148 low-flow partial-record stations was operated on streams in Massachusetts during the summers of 1989 through 1996. Streamflow measurements (including historical measurements), measured basin characteristics, and estimated streamflow statistics are provided in the report for each low-flow partial-record station. Also included for each station are location information, streamflow-gaging stations for which flows were correlated to those at the low-flowpartial-record station, years of operation, and remarks indicating human influences of stream-flowsat the station. Three or four streamflow measurements were made each year for three years during times of low flow to obtain nine or ten measurements for each station. Measured flows at the low-flow partial-record stations were correlated with same-day mean flows at a nearby gaging station to estimate streamflow statistics for the low-flow partial-record stations. The estimated streamflow statistics include the 99-, 98-, 97-, 95-, 93-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 65-, 60-, 55-, and 50-percent duration flows; the 7-day, 10- and 2-year low flows; and the August median flow. Characteristics of the drainage basins for the stations that theoretically relate to the response of the station to climatic variations were measured from digital map data by use of an automated geographic information system procedure. Basin characteristics measured include drainage area; total stream length; mean basin slope; area of surficial stratified drift; area of wetlands; area of water bodies; and mean, maximum, and minimum basin elevation.Station descriptions and calculated streamflow statistics are also included in the report for the 50 continuous gaging stations used in correlations with the low-flow partial-record stations.

Data Assimilation using observed streamflow and remotely-sensed soil moisture for improving sub-seasonal-to-seasonal forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Mazrooei, A.; Lakshmi, V.; Wood, A.

2017-12-01

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts of soil moisture and streamflow provides critical information for water and agricultural systems to support short-term planning and mangement. This study evaluates the role of observed streamflow and remotely-sensed soil moisture from SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission in improving S2S streamflow and soil moisture forecasting using data assimilation (DA). We first show the ability to forecast soil moisture at monthly-to-seaasonal time scale by forcing climate forecasts with NASA's Land Information System and then compares the developed soil moisture forecast with the SMAP data over the Southeast US. Our analyses show significant skill in forecasting real-time soil moisture over 1-3 months using climate information. We also show that the developed soil moisture forecasts capture the observed severe drought conditions (2007-2008) over the Southeast US. Following that, we consider both SMAP data and observed streamflow for improving S2S streamflow and soil moisture forecasts for a pilot study area, Tar River basin, in NC. Towards this, we consider variational assimilation (VAR) of gauge-measured daily streamflow data in improving initial hydrologic conditions of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The utility of data assimilation is then assessed in improving S2S forecasts of streamflow and soil moisture through a retrospective analyses. Furthermore, the optimal frequency of data assimilation and optimal analysis window (number of past observations to use) are also assessed in order to achieve the maximum improvement in S2S forecasts of streamflow and soil moisture. Potential utility of updating initial conditions using DA and providing skillful forcings are also discussed.

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, Alfonso; Muñoz, Ariel; González-Reyes, Álvaro; Aguilera-Betti, Isabella; Toledo, Isadora; Puchi, Paulina; Sauchyn, David; Crespo, Sebastián; Frene, Cristian; Mundo, Ignacio; González, Mauro; Vignola, Raffaele

2018-05-01

Streamflow in south-central Chile (SCC, ˜ 37-42° S) is vital for agriculture, forestry production, hydroelectricity, and human consumption. Recent drought episodes have generated hydrological deficits with damaging effects on these activities. This region is projected to undergo major reductions in water availability, concomitant with projected increases in water demand. However, the lack of long-term records hampers the development of accurate estimations of natural variability and trends. In order to provide more information on long-term streamflow variability and trends in SCC, here we report findings of an analysis of instrumental records and a tree-ring reconstruction of the summer streamflow of the Río Imperial ( ˜ 37° 40' S-38° 50' S). This is the first reconstruction in Chile targeted at this season. Results from the instrumental streamflow record ( ˜ 1940 onwards) indicated that the hydrological regime is fundamentally pluvial with a small snowmelt contribution during spring, and evidenced a decreasing trend, both for the summer and the full annual record. The reconstruction showed that streamflow below the average characterized the post-1980 period, with more frequent, but not more intense, drought episodes. We additionally found that the recent positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode has significantly influenced streamflow. These findings agree with previous studies, suggesting a robust regional signal and a shift to a new hydrological scenario. In this paper, we also discuss implications of these results for water managers and stakeholders; we provide rationale and examples that support the need for the incorporation of tree-ring reconstructions into water resources management.

Elevated streamflows increase dam passage by juvenile coho salmon during winter: Implications of climate change in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kock, Tobias J.; Liedtke, Theresa L.; Rondorf, Dennis W.; Serl, John D.; Kohn, Mike; Bumbaco, Karin A.

2012-01-01

A 4-year evaluation was conducted to determine the proportion of juvenile coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch passing Cowlitz Falls Dam, on the Cowlitz River, Washington, during winter. River and reservoir populations of coho salmon parr were monitored using radiotelemetry to determine if streamflow increases resulted in increased downstream movement and dam passage. This was of interest because fish that pass downstream of Cowlitz Falls Dam become landlocked in Riffe Lake and are lost to the anadromous population. Higher proportions of reservoir-released fish (0.391-0.480) passed Cowlitz Falls Dam than did river-released fish (0.037-0.119). Event-time analyses demonstrated that streamflow increases were important predictors of dam passage rates during the study. The estimated effect of increasing streamflows on the risk of dam passage varied annually and ranged from 9% to 75% for every 28.3 m3/s increase in streamflow. These results have current management implications because they demonstrate the significance of dam passage by juvenile coho salmon during winter months when juvenile fish collection facilities are typically not operating. The results also have future management implications because climate change predictions suggest that peak streamflow timing for many watersheds in the Pacific Northwest will shift from late spring and early summer to winter. Increased occurrence of intense winter flood events is also expected. Our results demonstrate that juvenile coho salmon respond readily to streamflow increases and initiate downstream movements during winter months, which could result in increased passage at dams during these periods if climate change predictions are realized in the coming decades.

Load estimator (LOADEST): a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Crawford, Charles G.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2004-01-01

LOAD ESTimator (LOADEST) is a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers. Given a time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and constituent concentration, LOADEST assists the user in developing a regression model for the estimation of constituent load (calibration). Explanatory variables within the regression model include various functions of streamflow, decimal time, and additional user-specified data variables. The formulated regression model then is used to estimate loads over a user-specified time interval (estimation). Mean load estimates, standard errors, and 95 percent confidence intervals are developed on a monthly and(or) seasonal basis. The calibration and estimation procedures within LOADEST are based on three statistical estimation methods. The first two methods, Adjusted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (AMLE) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), are appropriate when the calibration model errors (residuals) are normally distributed. Of the two, AMLE is the method of choice when the calibration data set (time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and concentration) contains censored data. The third method, Least Absolute Deviation (LAD), is an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation when the residuals are not normally distributed. LOADEST output includes diagnostic tests and warnings to assist the user in determining the appropriate estimation method and in interpreting the estimated loads. This report describes the development and application of LOADEST. Sections of the report describe estimation theory, input/output specifications, sample applications, and installation instructions.

Hydraulic Geometry Characteristics of Continuous-Record Streamflow-Gaging Stations on Four Urban Watersheds Along the Main Stem of Gwynns Falls, Baltimore County and Baltimore City, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doheny, Edward J.; Fisher, Gary T.

2007-01-01

Four continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations are currently being operated by the U.S. Geological Survey on the main stem of Gwynns Falls in western Baltimore County and Baltimore City, Maryland. The four streamflow-gaging stations drain urban or suburban watersheds with significantly different drainage areas. In addition to providing continuous- record discharge data at these four locations, operation of these stations also provides a long-term record of channel geometry variables such as cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity that are obtained from physical measurement of the discharge at a variety of flow conditions. Hydraulic geometry analyses were performed using discharge-measurement data from four continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations on the main stem of Gwynns Falls. Simple linear regression was used to develop relations that (1) quantify changes in cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity with changes in discharge at each station, and (2) quantify changes in these variables in the Gwynns Falls watershed with changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge. Results of the hydraulic geometry analyses indicated that mean velocity is more responsive to changes in discharge than channel width and mean channel depth for all four streamflow-gaging stations on the main stem of Gwynns Falls. For the two largest and most developed watersheds, on Gwynns Falls at Villa Nova, and Gwynns Falls at Washington Boulevard at Baltimore, the slope of the regression lines, or hydraulic exponents, indicated that mean velocity was more responsive to changes in discharge than any of the other hydraulic variables that were analyzed. This was true even when considering changes in cross-sectional area with discharge, which incorporates the combined effects of channel width and mean channel depth. A comparison of hydraulic exponents for Gwynns Falls to average values from previous work indicated that the velocity exponents for all four stations on the Gwynns Falls are larger than the average value of 0.34. For stations 01589300 and 01589352, the exponents for mean velocity are about twice as large as the average value. Analyses of cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity in conjunction with changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge indicated that channel width is much more responsive to changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge than are mean channel depth or mean velocity. Cross-sectional area, which combines the effects of channel width and mean channel depth, was also found to be highly responsive to changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge.

Continuity vs. the Crowd-Tradeoffs Between Continuous and Intermittent Citizen Hydrology Streamflow Observations.

PubMed

Davids, Jeffrey C; van de Giesen, Nick; Rutten, Martine

2017-07-01

Hydrologic data has traditionally been collected with permanent installations of sophisticated and accurate but expensive monitoring equipment at limited numbers of sites. Consequently, observation frequency and costs are high, but spatial coverage of the data is limited. Citizen Hydrology can possibly overcome these challenges by leveraging easily scaled mobile technology and local residents to collect hydrologic data at many sites. However, understanding of how decreased observational frequency impacts the accuracy of key streamflow statistics such as minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff is limited. To evaluate this impact, we randomly selected 50 active United States Geological Survey streamflow gauges in California. We used 7 years of historical 15-min flow data from 2008 to 2014 to develop minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff values for each gauge. To mimic lower frequency Citizen Hydrology observations, we developed a bootstrap randomized subsampling with replacement procedure. We calculated the same statistics, and their respective distributions, from 50 subsample iterations with four different subsampling frequencies ranging from daily to monthly. Minimum flows were estimated within 10% for half of the subsample iterations at 39 (daily) and 23 (monthly) of the 50 sites. However, maximum flows were estimated within 10% at only 7 (daily) and 0 (monthly) sites. Runoff volumes were estimated within 10% for half of the iterations at 44 (daily) and 12 (monthly) sites. Watershed flashiness most strongly impacted accuracy of minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff estimates from subsampled data. Depending on the questions being asked, lower frequency Citizen Hydrology observations can provide useful hydrologic information.

Development and application of a comprehensive simulation model to evaluate impacts of watershed structures and irrigation water use on streamflow and groundwater: The case of Wet Walnut Creek Watershed, Kansas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramireddygari, S.R.; Sophocleous, M.A.; Koelliker, J.K.; Perkins, S.P.; Govindaraju, R.S.

2000-01-01

This paper presents the results of a comprehensive modeling study of surface and groundwater systems, including stream-aquifer interactions, for the Wet Walnut Creek Watershed in west-central Kansas. The main objective of this study was to assess the impacts of watershed structures and irrigation water use on streamflow and groundwater levels, which in turn affect availability of water for the Cheyenne Bottoms Wildlife Refuge Management area. The surface-water flow model, POTYLDR, and the groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, were combined into an integrated, watershed-scale, continuous simulation model. Major revisions and enhancements were made to the POTYLDR and MODFLOW models for simulating the detailed hydrologic budget for the Wet Walnut Creek Watershed. The computer simulation model was calibrated and verified using historical streamflow records (at Albert and Nekoma gaging stations), reported irrigation water use, observed water-level elevations in watershed structure pools, and groundwater levels in the alluvial aquifer system. To assess the impact of watershed structures and irrigation water use on streamflow and groundwater levels, a number of hypothetical management scenarios were simulated under various operational criteria for watershed structures and different annual limits on water use for irrigation. A standard 'base case' was defined to allow comparative analysis of the results of different scenarios. The simulated streamflows showed that watershed structures decrease both streamflows and groundwater levels in the watershed. The amount of water used for irrigation has a substantial effect on the total simulated streamflow and groundwater levels, indicating that irrigation is a major budget item for managing water resources in the watershed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.This paper presents the results of a comprehensive modeling study of surface and groundwater systems, including stream-aquifer interactions, for the Wet Walnut Creek Watershed in west-central Kansas. The main objective of this study was to assess the impacts of watershed structures and irrigation water use on streamflow and groundwater levels, which in turn affect availability of water for the Cheyenne Bottoms Wildlife Refuge Management area. The surface-water flow model, POTYLDR, and the groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, were combined into an integrated, watershed-scale, continuous simulation model. Major revisions and enhancements were made to the POTYLDR and MODFLOW models for simulating the detailed hydrologic budget for the Wet Walnut Creek Watershed. The computer simulation model was calibrated and verified using historical streamflow records (at Albert and Nekoma gaging stations), reported irrigation water use, observed water-level elevations in watershed structure pools, and groundwater levels in the alluvial aquifer system. To assess the impact of watershed structures and irrigation water use on streamflow and groundwater levels, a number of hypothetical management scenarios were simulated under various operational criteria for watershed structures and different annual limits on water use for irrigation. A standard `base case' was defined to allow comparative analysis of the results of different scenarios. The simulated streamflows showed that watershed structures decrease both streamflows and groundwater levels in the watershed. The amount of water used for irrigation has a substantial effect on the total simulated streamflow and groundwater levels, indicating that irrigation is a major budget item for managing water resources in the watershed.A comprehensive simulation model that combines the surface water flow model POTYLDR and the groundwater flow model MODFLOW was used to study the impacts of watershed structures (e.g., dams) and irrigation water use (including stream-aquifer interactions) on streamflow and groundwater. The model was revised, enhanced, calibrated, and verified, then applied to evaluate the hydrologic budget for Wet Wal

Water-resources investigations in Wisconsin: Programs and activities of the U.S. Geological Survey, 1991-92

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maertz, D.E.

1992-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study are to provide continuous discharge records for selected rivers at specific sites to supply the needs for: regulation, analytical studies, definition of statistical properties, trends analysis, determination of the occurrence, and distribution of water in streams for planning. The project is also designed to determine lake levels and to provide discharge for floods, low-flow conditions, and for water-quality investigations. Requests for streamflow data and information relating to streamflow in Wisconsin are answered. Basic data are published annually in "Water Resources Data Wisconsin."

Water-resources investigations in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maertz, D.E.

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study are to provide continuous discharge records for selected rivers at specific sites to supply the needs for regulation, analytical studies, definition of statistical properties, trends analysis, determination of the occurrence, and distribution of water in streams for planning. The project is also LOCATION: Statewide PROJECT CHIEF: Barry K. Holmstrom PERIOD OF PROJECT: July 1913-Continuing designed to determine lake levels and to provide discharge for floods, low-flow conditions, and for waterquality investigations. Requests for streamflow data and information relating to streamflow in Wisconsin are answered. Basic data are published annually in the report "Water Resources Data-Wisconsin."

Estimation of sediment inflows to Lake Tuscaloosa, Alabama, 2009-11

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, K.G.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Tuscaloosa, evaluated the concentrations, loads, and yields of suspended sediment in the tributaries to Lake Tuscaloosa in west-central Alabama, from October 1, 2008, to January 31, 2012. The collection and analysis of these data will facilitate the comparison with historical data, serve as a baseline for future sediment-collection efforts, and help to identify areas of concern. Lake Tuscaloosa, at the reservoir dam, receives runoff from a drainage area of 423 square miles (mi2). Basinwide in 2006, forested land was the primary land cover (68 percent). Comparison of historical imagery with the National Land Cover Database (2001 and 2006) indicated that the greatest temporal land-use change was timber harvest. The land cover in 2006 was indicative of this change, with shrub/scrub land (12 percent) being the secondary land use in the basin. Agricultural land use (10 percent) was represented predominantly by hay and pasture or grasslands. Urban land use was minimal, accounting for 4 percent of the entire basin. The remaining 6 percent of the basin has a land use of open water or wetlands. Storm and monthly suspended-sediment samples were collected from seven tributaries to Lake Tuscaloosa: North River, Turkey Creek, Binion Creek, Pole Bridge Creek, Tierce Creek, Carroll Creek, and Brush Creek. Suspended-sediment concentrations and streamflow measurements were statistically analyzed to estimate annual suspended-sediment loads and yields from each of these contributing watersheds. Estimated annual suspended-sediment yields in 2009 were 360, 540, and 840 tons per square mile (tons/mi2) at the North River, Turkey Creek, and Carroll Creek streamflow-gaging stations, respectively. Estimated annual suspended-sediment yields in 2010 were 120 and 86 tons/mi2 at the Binion Creek and Pole Bridge Creek streamflow-gaging stations, respectively. Estimated annual suspended-sediment yields in 2011 were 190 and 300 tons/mi2 at the Tierce Creek and Brush Creek streamflow-gaging stations, respectively. The North River watershed at the streamflow-gaging station contributes 53 percent of the drainage area for Lake Tuscaloosa. A previous study in the 1970s analyzed streamflow and historical suspended-sediment samples to estimate a long-term average suspended-sediment yield of 300 tons per year per square mile in the North River watershed. Analysis of data collected in the North River watershed during the 2009 water year (October 2008 to September 2009) estimated a sediment yield of 360 tons/mi2. The North River watershed, a major portion of the Lake Tuscaloosa drainage basin, has not experienced a substantial increase in sedimentation rates. During the 2009 water year, the Turkey Creek watershed (6.16 mi2) and the Carroll Creek watershed (20.9 mi2) produced greater suspended-sediment yields than the North River watershed but contribute a much smaller drainage area to Lake Tuscaloosa. Aerial photography and bathymetric surveys indicate that Carroll Creek has experienced increased sediment deposition in the upstream portions of the channel. Carroll Creek is also the only watershed in the current study that has a substantial percentage (11 percent) of urban

Water Resources Data, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, Water Year 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diaz, Pedro L.; Aquino, Zaida; Figueroa-Alamo, Carlos; Garcia, Rene; Sanchez, Ana V.

2004-01-01

The Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with local and Federal agencies obtains a large amount of data pertaining to the water resources of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands each water year. These data, accumulated during many water years, constitute a valuable data base for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the area. To make these data readily available to interested parties outside the U.S. Geological Survey, the data are published annually in this report series entitled 'Water Resources Data for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, 2002.' This report includes records on both surface and ground water. Specifically, it contains: (1) discharge records for 95 streamflow gaging stations, daily sediment records for 28 streamflow stations, 27 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, stage records for 17 reservoirs, and (2) water-quality records for 17 streamflow-gaging stations, and for 42 ungaged stream sites, 11 lake sites, 2 lagoons, and 1 bay, and (3) water-level records for 102 observation wells.

Water Resources Data, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, Water Year 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diaz, Pedro L.; Aquino, Zaida; Figueroa-Alamo, Carlos; Garcia, Rene; Sanchez, Ana V.

2002-01-01

The Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with local and Federal agencies obtains a large amount of data pertaining to the water resources of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands each water year. These data, accumulated during many water years, constitute a valuable data base for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the area. To make these data readily available to interested parties outside the U.S. Geological Survey, the data are published annually in this report series entitled 'Water Resources Data for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, 2001.' This report includes records on both surface and ground water. Specifically, it contains: (1) discharge records for 95 streamflow gaging stations, daily sediment records for 23 streamflow stations, 20 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, stage records for 18 reservoirs, and (2) water-quality records for 17 streamflow-gaging stations, and for 42 ungaged stream sites, 11 lake sites, 2 lagoons, and 1 bay, and (3) water-level records for 103 observation wells.

Water Resources Data, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, Water Year 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diaz, Pedro L.; Aquino, Zaida; Figueroa-Alamo, Carlos; Vachier, Ricardo J.; Sanchez, Ana V.

2001-01-01

The Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with local and federal agencies obtains a large amount of data pertaining to the water resources of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands each water year. These data, accumulated during many water years, constitute a valuable data base for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the area. To make these data readily available to interested parties outside the U.S. Geological Survey, the data are published annually in this report series entitled 'Water Resources Data for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, 2000.' This report includes records on both surface and ground water. Specifically, it contains: (1) discharge records for 85 streamflow gaging stations, daily sediment records for 26 streamflow stations, 21 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, stage records for 18 reservoirs, and (2) water-quality records for 16 streamflow-gaging stations, and for 42 ungaged stream sites, 11 lake sites, 2 lagoons, and 1 bay, and (3) water-level records for 108 observation wells.

Water resources data, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, Water Year 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diaz, Pedro L.; Aquino, Zaida; Figueroa-Alamo, Carlos; Vachier, Ricardo J.; Sanchez, Ana V.

1999-01-01

The Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with local and federal agencies obtains a large amount of data pertaining to the water resources of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands each water year. These data, accumulated during many water years, constitute a valuable data base for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the area. To make these data readily available to interested parties outside the U.S. Geological Survey, the data are published annually in this report series entitled 'Water Resources Data for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, 1998.' This report includes records on both surface and ground water. Specifically, it contains: (1) discharge records for 76 streamflow gaging stations, daily sediment records for 27 streamflow stations, 99 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, stage records for 17 reservoirs, and (2) water-quality records for 16 streamflow-gaging stations, and for 42 ungaged stream sites, 11 lake sites, 2 lagoons, and 1 bay, and (3) water-level records for 97 observation wells.

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

2018-02-01

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

Using 3D dynamic cartography and hydrological modelling for linear streamflow mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drogue, G.; Pfister, L.; Leviandier, T.; Humbert, J.; Hoffmann, L.; El Idrissi, A.; Iffly, J.-F.

2002-10-01

This paper presents a regionalization methodology and an original representation of the downstream variation of daily streamflow using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HRM) and the 3D visualization tools of the GIS ArcView. The regionalization of the parameters of the HRM model was obtained by fitting simultaneously the runoff series from five sub-basins of the Alzette river basin (Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg) according to the permeability of geological formations. After validating the transposability of the regional parameter values on five test basins, streamflow series were simulated with the model at ungauged sites in one medium size geologically contrasted test basin and interpolated assuming a linear increase of streamflow between modelling points. 3D spatio-temporal cartography of mean annual and high raw and specific discharges are illustrated. During a severe flooding, the propagation of the flood waves in the different parts of the stream network shows an important contribution of sub-basins lying on impervious geological formations (direct runoff) compared with those including permeable geological formations which have a more contrasted hydrological response. The effect of spatial variability of rainfall is clearly perceptible.

Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Poole, Sandra; Wolfe, William J.; Seibert, Jan; Breuer, Lutz; Kraft, Philipp

2016-01-01

Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.

Annual trace-metal load estimates and flow-weighted concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc in the Spokane River basin, Idaho and Washington, 1999-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donato, Mary M.

2006-01-01

Streamflow and trace-metal concentration data collected at 10 locations in the Spokane River basin of northern Idaho and eastern Washington during 1999-2004 were used as input for the U.S. Geological Survey software, LOADEST, to estimate annual loads and mean flow-weighted concentrations of total and dissolved cadmium, lead, and zinc. Cadmium composed less than 1 percent of the total metal load at all stations; lead constituted from 6 to 42 percent of the total load at stations upstream from Coeur d'Alene Lake and from 2 to 4 percent at stations downstream of the lake. Zinc composed more than 90 percent of the total metal load at 6 of the 10 stations examined in this study. Trace-metal loads were lowest at the station on Pine Creek below Amy Gulch, where the mean annual total cadmium load for 1999-2004 was 39 kilograms per year (kg/yr), the mean estimated total lead load was about 1,700 kg/yr, and the mean annual total zinc load was 14,000 kg/yr. The trace-metal loads at stations on North Fork Coeur d'Alene River at Enaville, Ninemile Creek, and Canyon Creek also were relatively low. Trace-metal loads were highest at the station at Coeur d'Alene River near Harrison. The mean annual total cadmium load was 3,400 kg/yr, the mean total lead load was 240,000 kg/yr, and the mean total zinc load was 510,000 kg/yr for 1999-2004. Trace-metal loads at the station at South Fork Coeur d'Alene River near Pinehurst and the three stations on the Spokane River downstream of Coeur d'Alene Lake also were relatively high. Differences in metal loads, particularly lead, between stations upstream and downstream of Coeur d'Alene Lake likely are due to trapping and retention of metals in lakebed sediments. LOADEST software was used to estimate loads for water years 1999-2001 for many of the same sites discussed in this report. Overall, results from this study and those from a previous study are in good agreement. Observed differences between the two studies are attributable to streamflow differences in the two regression models, 1999-2001 and 1999-2004. Flow-weighted concentrations (FWCs) calculated from the estimated loads for 1999-2004 were examined to aid interpretation of metal load estimates, which were influenced by large spatial and temporal variations in streamflow. FWCs of total cadmium ranged from 0.04 micrograms per liter (?g/L) at Enaville to 14 ?g/L at Ninemile Creek. Total lead FWCs were lowest at Long Lake (1.3 ?g/L) and highest at Ninemile Creek (120 ?g/L). Elevated total lead FWCs at Harrison confirmed that the high total lead loads at this station were not simply due to higher streamflow. Conversely, relatively low total lead loads combined with high total lead FWCs at Ninemile and Canyon Creeks reflected low streamflow but high concentrations of total lead. Very low total lead FWCs (1.3 to 2.7 ?g/L) at the stations downstream of Coeur d'Alene Lake are a result both of deposition of lead-laden sediments in the lake and dilution by additional streamflow. Total zinc FWCs also demonstrated the effect of streamflow on load calculations, and highlighted source areas for zinc in the basin. Total zinc FWCs at Canyon and Ninemile Creeks, 1,600 ?g/L and 2,200 ?g/L, respectively, were by far the highest in the basin but contributed among the lowest total zinc loads due to their relatively low streamflow. Total zinc FWCs ranged from 38 to 67 ?g/L at stations downstream of Coeur d'Alene Lake, but total zinc load estimates at these stations were relatively high because of high mean streamflow compared to other stations in the basin. Long-term regression models for 1991 to 2003 or 2004 were developed and annual trace-metal loads and FWCs were estimated for Pinehurst, Enaville, Harrison, and Post Falls to better understand the variability of metal loading with time. Long-term load estimates are similar to the results for 1999-2004 in terms of spatial distribution of metal loads throughout the basin. LOADEST results for 1991-2004 indicated that statistically significant downward temporal trends for dissolved and total cadmium, dissolved zinc, and total lead were occurring at Pinehurst, Enaville, Harrison, and Post Falls. Additionally, data for Enaville and Post Falls showed significant downward trends for dissolved lead and total zinc loads; Harrison total zinc loads also decreased with time. The Mann-Kendall trend test results agreed with the LOADEST trend results in most cases, but gave contradictory results for total zinc at Pinehurst and at Post Falls. Long- and short-term load and flow-weighted concentration estimates yielded valuable information about metal storage and transport processes, and demonstrated that water quality data are a great aid in understanding these processes.

Linking climate variations with the hydrological cycle over the semi-arid Central Andes of Argentina. Past, present and future, with emphasis on streamflow droughts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, Juan Antonio; Araneo, Diego; Penalba, Olga; Villalba, Ricardo

2017-04-01

In the Central Andes of Argentina (CAA, located between 28° and 38°S), an arid to semi-arid region, the irrigation and a variety of socio-economical activities are highly dependent on river streamflows. Permanent and semi-permanent rivers originate mainly from snowmelt and glacier ablation, enabling the development of large agricultural oasis and the construction of numerous dams and reservoirs for irrigation and power generation. Most of its 2.5 million inhabitants and the main economic activities are located in a small irrigated fraction of the territory, where the variations in the timing and amount of water resources largely determine the socio-economic vulnerability of the region. In this context, the links between climatic variability and the hydrological cycle were assessed considering daily streamflow records from 21 streamgauges in the main rivers of the study area. Principal component analysis of annual hydrographs from 1931 to 2015 allowed to discriminate between precipitation- and temperature-related components associated with variations in snow accumulation (51% of variance) and advances/delays of the streamflow annual peak (16% of variance), respectively. The components related to intraseasonal variability account for 7% and 6% of variance, respectively, mixing both precipitation and thermal factors. The contribution of the precipitation-related component was the main driver of the 2010-15 streamflow drought conditions, although the thermal contribution was relevant during specific seasonal drought events. Based on an empirical decomposition methodology we identified the main modes of streamflow drought variability, which are linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation on interannual time scales and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for the decadal variations. This result shows the influence of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the development of streamflow drought conditions and its relevance for potential predictability of hydroclimatic variations over the region. Nevertheless, recent studies indicate that, besides the contribution of La Niña and PDO signals, anthropogenic climate change could be responsible for the development of regional extreme drought conditions. In fact, reconstruction of CAA hydroclimate based on centennial-long tree-ring records shows a recent declining precipitation trend that is also evident over North Patagonia (38°-45°S) reconstructions, unprecedented in the last 400 years. This decreasing trend can be linked to the broadening of the sub-tropical dry zones as a displacement of the descending arm of the Hadley Cell circulation, a phenomenon likely forced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations, although its underlying mechanisms still not well understood. The assessment of future drought conditions based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble forced under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) shows an expected increase in the number of drought events, with a decrease in the mean drought duration and non-significant changes in mean drought severity, although these results have a high range of uncertainty and are dependent on the future time horizon and selected scenario. Moreover, projected temperature trends will shift the streamflow peak from summer to late spring, in combination with a decrease in snow accumulation that will decrease the annual cycle amplitude. Both factors will likely change the hydroclimate of the semi-arid Andes, calling for new and improved water management practices over the region.

Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

2017-10-01

Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

Analysis of flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2007-01-01

The Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania experienced severe flooding as a result of intense rainfall during June 2006. The height of the flood waters on the rivers and tributaries approached or exceeded the peak of record at many locations. Updated flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations on tributaries in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins were analyzed using data through the 2006 water year to determine if there were any major differences in the flood-discharge data. Flood frequencies for return intervals of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500 years (Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, Q100, and Q500) were determined from annual maximum series (AMS) data from continuous-record gaging stations (stations) and were compared to flood discharges obtained from previously published Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) and to flood frequencies using partial-duration series (PDS) data. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to determine any statistically significant differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS. Percentage differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS also were determined for the 10, 50, 100, and 500 return intervals. A Mann-Kendall trend test was performed to determine statistically significant trends in the updated AMS peak-flow data for the period of record at the 41 stations. In addition to AMS station data, PDS data were used to determine flood-frequency discharges. The AMS and PDS flood-frequency data were compared to determine any differences between the two data sets. An analysis also was performed on AMS-derived flood frequencies for four stations to evaluate the possible effects of flood-control reservoirs on peak flows. Additionally, flood frequencies for three stations were evaluated to determine possible effects of urbanization on peak flows. The results of the Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed a significant difference at the 95-percent confidence level between the Q100 computed from AMS station data and the Q100 determined from previously published FIS for 97 sites. The flood-frequency discharges computed from AMS station data were consistently larger than the flood discharges from the FIS; mean percentage difference between the two data sets ranged from 14 percent for the Q100 to 20 percent for the Q50. The results of the Mann-Kendall test showed that 8 stations exhibited a positive trend (i.e., increasing annual maximum peaks over time) over their respective periods of record at the 95-percent confidence level, and an additional 7 stations indicated a positive trend, for a total of 15 stations, at a confidence level of greater than or equal to 90 percent. The Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, and Q100 determined from AMS and PDS data for each station were compared by percentage. The flood magnitudes for the 2-year return period were 16 percent higher when partial-duration peaks were incorporated into the analyses, as opposed to using only the annual maximum peaks. The discharges then tended to converge around the 5-year return period, with a mean collective difference of only 1 percent. At the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods, the flood magnitudes based on annual maximum peaks were, on average, 6 percent higher compared to corresponding flood magnitudes based on partial-duration peaks. Possible effects on flood peaks from flood-control reservoirs and urban development within the basin also were examined. Annual maximum peak-flow data from four stations were divided into pre- and post-regulation periods. Comparisons were made between the Q100 determined from AMS station data for the periods of record pre- and post-regulation. Two stations showed a nearly 60- and 20-percent reduction in the 100-year discharges; the other two stations showed negligible differences in discharges. Three stations within urban basins were compared to 38 stations

A computer program for estimating instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Peter M.

2006-01-01

The Yellowstone River is very important in a variety of ways to the residents of southeastern Montana; however, it is especially vulnerable to spilled contaminants. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Montana Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a study to develop a computer program to rapidly estimate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River using regression equations developed in 1999 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The purpose of this report is to describe these equations and their limitations, describe the development of a computer program to apply the equations to the Yellowstone River, and provide detailed instructions on how to use the program. This program is available online at [http://pubs.water.usgs.gov/sir2006-5057/includes/ytot.xls]. The regression equations provide estimates of instream travel times and concentrations in rivers where little or no contaminant-transport data are available. Equations were developed and presented for the most probable flow velocity and the maximum probable flow velocity. These velocity estimates can then be used to calculate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant. The computer program was developed so estimation equations for instream travel times and concentrations can be solved quickly for sites along the Yellowstone River between Corwin Springs and Sidney, Montana. The basic types of data needed to run the program are spill data, streamflow data, and data for locations of interest along the Yellowstone River. Data output from the program includes spill location, river mileage at specified locations, instantaneous discharge, mean-annual discharge, drainage area, and channel slope. Travel times and concentrations are provided for estimates of the most probable velocity of the peak concentration and the maximum probable velocity of the peak concentration. Verification of estimates of instream travel times and concentrations for the Yellowstone River requires information about the flow velocity throughout the 520 mi of river in the study area. Dye-tracer studies would provide the best data about flow velocities and would provide the best verification of instream travel times and concentrations estimated from this computer program; however, data from such studies does not currently (2006) exist and new studies would be expensive and time-consuming. An alternative approach used in this study for verification of instream travel times is based on the use of flood-wave velocities determined from recorded streamflow hydrographs at selected mainstem streamflow-gaging stations along the Yellowstone River. The ratios of flood-wave velocity to the most probable velocity for the base flow estimated from the computer program are within the accepted range of 2.5 to 4.0 and indicate that flow velocities estimated from the computer program are reasonable for the Yellowstone River. The ratios of flood-wave velocity to the maximum probable velocity are within a range of 1.9 to 2.8 and indicate that the maximum probable flow velocities estimated from the computer program, which corresponds to the shortest travel times and maximum probable concentrations, are conservative and reasonable for the Yellowstone River.

Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt; McDowell, Nathan G.; Xu, Chonggang; Vivoni, Enrique; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate-disturbance scenarios is at least 6-11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15-21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.

Streamflow characteristics of streams in the Helmand Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2008-01-01

A majority of the Afghan population lacks adequate and safe supplies of water because of contamination, lack of water-resources management regulation, and lack of basic infrastructure, compounded by periods of drought and seasonal flooding. Characteristics of historical streamflows are needed to assist with efforts to quantify the water resources of the Helmand Basin. The Helmand Basin is the largest river basin in Afghanistan. It comprises the southern half of the country, draining waters from the Sia Koh Mountains in Herat Province to the eastern mountains in Gardez Province (currently known as the Paktia Province) and the Parwan Mountains northwest of Kabul, and finally draining into the unique Sistan depression between Iran and Afghanistan (Favre and Kamal, 2004). The Helmand Basin is a desert environment with rivers fed by melting snow from the high mountains and infrequent storms. Great fluctuations in streamflow, from flood to drought, can occur annually. Knowledge of the magnitude and time distribution of streamflow is needed to quantify water resources and for water management and environmental planning. Agencies responsible for the development and management of Afghanistan's surface-water resources can use this knowledge for making safe, economical, and environmentally sound water-resource planning decisions. To provide the Afghan managers with necessary streamflow information, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), computed streamflow statistics for data collected at historical gaging stations within the Helmand Basin. The historical gaging stations used are shown in figure 1 and listed in table 1.

Prediction of Hydrological Drought: What Can We Learn From Continental-Scale Offline Simulations?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal; Mahanama, Sarith; Livneh, Ben; Lettenmaier, Dennis; Reichle, Rolf

2011-01-01

Land surface model experiments are used to quantify, across the coterminous United States, the contributions (isolated and combined) of soil moisture and snowpack initialization to the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts at multiple leads and for different start dates. Forecasted streamflows are compared to naturalized streamflow observations where available and to synthetic (model-generated) streamflow data elsewhere. We find that snow initialization has a major impact on skill in the mountainous western U.S. and in a portion of the northern Great Plains; a mid-winter (January 1) initialization of snow in these areas leads to significant skill in the spring melting season. Soil moisture initialization also contributes to skill, and although the maximum contributions are not as large as those seen for snow initialization, the soil moisture contributions extend across a much broader geographical area. Soil moisture initialization can contribute to skill at long leads (up to 5 or 6 months), particularly for forecasts issued during winter.

Analysis of trends in climate, streamflow, and stream temperature in north coastal California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madej, Mary Ann; Medley, C. Nicholas; Patterson, Glenn; Parker, Melanie J.

2011-01-01

As part of a broader project analyzing trends in climate, streamflow, vegetation, salmon, and ocean conditions in northern California national park units, we compiled average monthly air temperature and precipitation data from 73 climate stations, streamflow data from 21 river gaging stations, and limited stream temperature data from salmon-bearing rivers in north coastal California. Many climate stations show a statistically significant increase in both average maximum and average minimum air temperature in early fall and midwinter during the last century. Concurrently, average September precipitation has decreased. In many coastal rivers, summer low flow has decreased and summer stream temperatures have increased, which affects summer rearing habitat for salmonids. Nevertheless, because vegetative cover has also changed during this time period, we cannot ascribe streamflow changes to climate change without first assessing water budgets. Although shifts in the timing of the centroid of runoff have been documented in snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the western United States, this was not the case in lower elevation coastal rivers analyzed in this study.

Climate Change Impacts to Hydro Power Reservoir Systems in British Columbia, Canada: Modelling, Validation and Projection of Historic and Future Streamflow and Snowpack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Schnorbus, M.; Werner, A. T.; Berland, A. J.

2010-12-01

The British Columbia Hydro Electric Corporation (BC Hydro) has a mandate to provide clean, renewable and reliable sources of hydro-electric power into the future, hence managing those resources in the context of climate change will be an important component of reservoir operational planning in British Columbia. The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (www.PacificClimate.org) has implemented the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model parameterized at 1/16th degree (~32 km2) to provide BC Hydro with future projections of changes to streamflow and snowpack to the 2050s. The headwaters of the Peace, Columbia, and Campbell River basins were selected for study; the Upper Peace River basin (101,000 km2) is a snowmelt-dominated watershed, and the Upper Columbia River Basin (104,000 km2) has a mixed snowmelt-glacier melt runoff regime, with glacier runoff contributing up to 15 to 20% of late summer discharge. The Upper Campbell River watershed (1,200 km2) has a mixed rainfall and snowmelt (hybrid) hydrologic regime. The model has been calibrated using historical streamflow observations and validated against these observations, as well as automated snow pillow measurements. Future streamflow changes are estimated based on eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CMIP3 suite, downscaled using the Bias Correction Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique, run under three emissions scenarios (A2, A1B and B1; A1B is specifically reported on herein). Climate impacts by the 2050s in the three watersheds illustrate an increase in annual average temperature and precipitation ranging between +2.2°C to +2.8°C and +2% to +10% depending on basin, and an annual change in streamflow of -1% to +12% for the three watersheds. Changes are more profound on the seasonal time-scale and differ across basins. Summer streamflow in the Upper Campbell River watershed is projected to decline by -60%, where as the Upper Peace and Columbia systems are projected to decline by -25% and -22%, respectively. Streamflow is projected to increase during winter months for all basins, ranging from increases of +54% (Upper Campbell), +77% (Upper Peace) to +94% (Upper Columbia). These changes in streamflow illustrate a shift towards more rainfall dominated systems with lower snowpacks during the winter months, particularly in the Campbell system (shifting from 23% to 13% snow dominated by the 2050s), which is located at a relatively low elevation and proximal to the Pacific Ocean. Shifts in the distribution of water resources, and in particular snowpack reserves, may require BC Hydro to reconsider their operational planning framework for impacted systems.

Summary of groundwater-recharge estimates for Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuart O. Reese,; Risser, Dennis W.

2010-01-01

Groundwater recharge is water that infiltrates through the subsurface to the zone of saturation beneath the water table. Because recharge is a difficult parameter to quantify, it is typically estimated from measurements of other parameters like streamflow and precipitation. This report provides a general overview of processes affecting recharge in Pennsylvania and presents estimates of recharge rates from studies at various scales.The most common method for estimating recharge in Pennsylvania has been to estimate base flow from measurements of streamflow and assume that base flow (expressed in inches over the basin) approximates recharge. Statewide estimates of mean annual groundwater recharge were developed by relating base flow to basin characteristics of HUC10 watersheds (a fifth-level classification that uses 10 digits to define unique hydrologic units) using a regression equation. The regression analysis indicated that mean annual precipitation, average daily maximum temperature, percent of sand in soil, percent of carbonate rock in the watershed, and average stream-channel slope were significant factors in the explaining the variability of groundwater recharge across the Commonwealth.Several maps are included in this report to illustrate the principal factors affecting recharge and provide additional information about the spatial distribution of recharge in Pennsylvania. The maps portray the patterns of precipitation, temperature, prevailing winds across Pennsylvania’s varied physiography; illustrate the error associated with recharge estimates; and show the spatial variability of recharge as a percent of precipitation. National, statewide, regional, and local values of recharge, based on numerous studies, are compiled to allow comparison of estimates from various sources. Together these plates provide a synopsis of groundwater-recharge estimations and factors in Pennsylvania.Areas that receive the most recharge are typically those that get the most rainfall, have favorable surface conditions for infiltration, and are less susceptible to the influences of high temperatures, and thus, evapotranspiration. Areas that have less recharge in Pennsylvania are typically those with less precipitation, less permeable soils, and higher temperatures that are conducive to greater rates of evapotranspiration.

Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Morino, Kiyomi; McAfee, Stephanie A.; McCabe, Gregory J.

2016-01-01

This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In both wet and dry years, when flow is substantially different than expected given precipitation, these factors can modulate the dominant precipitation influence on streamflow. Different combinations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture can result in flow deficits of similar magnitude, but recent droughts have been amplified by warmer temperatures that exacerbate the effects of relatively modest precipitation deficits. Since 1988, a marked increase in the frequency of warm years with lower flows than expected, given precipitation, suggests continued warming temperatures will be an increasingly important influence in reducing future UCRB water supplies.

A Nonparametric Approach For Representing Interannual Dependence In Monthly Streamflow Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Oneill, R.

The estimation of risks associated with water management plans requires generation of synthetic streamflow sequences. The mathematical algorithms used to generate these sequences at monthly time scales are found lacking in two main respects: inability in preserving dependence attributes particularly at large (seasonal to interannual) time lags; and, a poor representation of observed distributional characteristics, in partic- ular, representation of strong assymetry or multimodality in the probability density function. Proposed here is an alternative that naturally incorporates both observed de- pendence and distributional attributes in the generated sequences. Use of a nonpara- metric framework provides an effective means for representing the observed proba- bility distribution, while the use of a Svariable kernelT ensures accurate modeling of & cedil;streamflow data sets that contain a substantial number of zero flow values. A careful selection of prior flows imparts the appropriate short-term memory, while use of an SaggregateT flow variable allows representation of interannual dependence. The non- & cedil;parametric simulation model is applied to monthly flows from the Beaver River near Beaver, Utah, USA, and the Burrendong dam inflows, New South Wales, Australia. Results indicate that while the use of traditional simulation approaches leads to an inaccurate representation of dependence at long (annual and interannual) time scales, the proposed model can simulate both short and long-term dependence. As a result, the proposed model ensures a significantly improved representation of reservoir storage statistics, particularly for systems influenced by long droughts. It is important to note that the proposed method offers a simpler and better alternative to conventional dis- aggregation models as: (a) a separate annual flow series is not required, (b) stringent assumptions relating annual and monthly flows are not needed, and (c) the method does not require the specification of a "water year", instead ensuring that the sum of any sequence of flows lasting twelve months will result in the type of dependence that is observed in the historical annual flow series.

Low-head hydropower assessment of the Brazilian State of São Paulo

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artan, Guleid A.; Cushing, W. Matthew; Mathis, Melissa L.; Tieszen, Larry L.

2014-01-01

This study produced a comprehensive estimate of the magnitude of hydropower potential available in the streams that drain watersheds entirely within the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Because a large part of the contributing area is outside of São Paulo, the main stem of the Paraná River was excluded from the assessment. Potential head drops were calculated from the Digital Terrain Elevation Data,which has a 1-arc-second resolution (approximately 30-meter resolution at the equator). For the conditioning and validation of synthetic stream channels derived from the Digital Elevation Model datasets, hydrography data (in digital format) supplied by the São Paulo State Department of Energy and the Agência Nacional de Águas were used. Within the study area there were 1,424 rain gages and 123 streamgages with long-term data records. To estimate average yearly streamflow, a hydrologic regionalization system that divides the State into 21 homogeneous basins was used. Stream segments, upstream areas, and mean annual rainfall were estimated using geographic information systems techniques. The accuracy of the flows estimated with the regionalization models was validated. Overall, simulated streamflows were significantly correlated with the observed flows but with a consistent underestimation bias. When the annual mean flows from the regionalization models were adjusted upward by 10 percent, average streamflow estimation bias was reduced from -13 percent to -4 percent. The sum of all the validated stream reach mean annual hydropower potentials in the 21 basins is 7,000 megawatts (MW). Hydropower potential is mainly concentrated near the Serra do Mar mountain range and along the Tietê River. The power potential along the Tietê River is mainly at sites with medium and high potentials, sites where hydropower has already been harnessed. In addition to the annual mean hydropower estimates, potential hydropower estimates with flow rates with exceedance probabilities of 40 percent, 60 percent, and 90 percent were made.

Statistical summary of selected physical, chemical, and toxicity characteristics and estimates of annual constituent loads in urban stormwater, Maricopa County, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fossum, Kenneth D.; O'Day, Christie M.; Wilson, Barbara J.; Monical, Jim E.

2001-01-01

Stormwater and streamflow in Maricopa County were monitored to (1) describe the physical, chemical, and toxicity characteristics of stormwater from areas having different land uses, (2) describe the physical, chemical, and toxicity characteristics of streamflow from areas that receive urban stormwater, and (3) estimate constituent loads in stormwater. Urban stormwater and streamflow had similar ranges in most constituent concentrations. The mean concentration of dissolved solids in urban stormwater was lower than in streamflow from the Salt River and Indian Bend Wash. Urban stormwater, however, had a greater chemical oxygen demand and higher concentrations of most nutrients. Mean seasonal loads and mean annual loads of 11 constituents and volumes of runoff were estimated for municipalities in the metropolitan Phoenix area, Arizona, by adjusting regional regression equations of loads. This adjustment procedure uses the original regional regression equation and additional explanatory variables that were not included in the original equation. The adjusted equations had standard errors that ranged from 161 to 196 percent. The large standard errors of the prediction result from the large variability of the constituent concentration data used in the regression analysis. Adjustment procedures produced unsatisfactory results for nine of the regressions?suspended solids, dissolved solids, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, total recoverable cadmium, total recoverable copper, total recoverable lead, total recoverable zinc, and storm runoff. These equations had no consistent direction of bias and no other additional explanatory variables correlated with the observed loads. A stepwise-multiple regression or a three-variable regression (total storm rainfall, drainage area, and impervious area) and local data were used to develop local regression equations for these nine constituents. These equations had standard errors from 15 to 183 percent.

Linking the pacific decadal oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in Southeast Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neal, E.G.; Todd, Walter M.; Coffeen, C.

2002-01-01

This study identified and examined differences in Southeast Alaskan streamflow patterns between the two most recent modes of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Identifying relationships between the PDO and specific regional phenomena is important for understanding climate variability, interpreting historical hydrological variability, and improving water-resources forecasting. Stream discharge data from six watersheds in Southeast Alaska were divided into cold-PDO (1947-1976) and warm-PDO (1977-1998) subsets. For all watersheds, the average annual streamflows during cold-PDO years were not significantly different from warm-PDO years. Monthly and seasonal discharges, however, did differ significantly between the two subsets, with the warm-PDO winter flows being typically higher than the cold-PDO winter flows and the warm-PDO summer flows being typically lower than the cold-PDO flows. These results were consistent with and driven by observed temperature and snowfall patterns for the region. During warm-PDO winters, precipitation fell as rain and ran-off immediately, causing higher than normal winter streamflow. During cold-PDO winters, precipitation was stored as snow and ran off during the summer snowmelt, creating greater summer streamflows. The Mendenhall River was unique in that it experienced higher flows for all seasons during the warm-PDO relative to the cold-PDO. The large amount of Mendenhall River discharge caused by glacial melt during warm-PDO summers offset any flow reduction caused by lack of snow accumulation during warm-PDO winters. The effect of the PDO on Southeast Alaskan watersheds differs from other regions of the Pacific Coast of North America in that monthly/seasonal discharge patterns changed dramatically with the switch in PDO modes but annual discharge did not. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Glacier contribution to streamflow in two headwaters of the Huasco River, Dry Andes of Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gascoin, S.; Kinnard, C.; Ponce, R.; Lhermitte, S.; MacDonell, S.; Rabatel, A.

2011-12-01

Quantitative assessment of glacier contribution to present-day streamflow is a prerequisite to the anticipation of climate change impact on water resources in the Dry Andes. In this paper we focus on two glaciated headwater catchments of the Huasco Basin (Chile, 29° S). The combination of glacier monitoring data for five glaciers (Toro 1, Toro 2, Esperanza, Guanaco, Estrecho and Ortigas) with five automatic streamflow records at sites with glacier coverage of 0.4 to 11 % allows the estimation of the mean annual glacier contribution to discharge between 2003/2004 and 2007/2008 hydrological years. In addition, direct manual measurements of glacier runoff were conducted in summer at the snouts of four glaciers, which provide the instantaneous contribution of glacier meltwater to stream runoff during summer. The results show that the mean annual glacier contribution to streamflow ranges between 3.3 and 23 %, which is greater than the glaciated fraction of the catchments. We argue that glacier contribution is partly enhanced by the effect of snowdrift from the non-glacier area to the glacier surface. Glacier mass loss is evident over the study period, with a mean of -0.84 m w.e. yr-1 for the period 2003/2004-2007/2008, and also contributes to increase glacier runoff. An El Niño episode in 2002 resulted in high snow accumulation, modifying the hydrological regime and probably reducing the glacier contribution in favor of seasonal snowmelt during the subsequent 2002/2003 hydrological year. At the hourly timescale, summertime glacier contributions are highly variable in space and time, revealing large differences in effective melting rates between glaciers and glacierets (from 1 mm w.e. h-1 to 6 mm w.e. h-1).

The influence of climate, topography and land-use on the hydrology of ephemeral upland catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, E.; Webb, J.; Dresel, E.

2016-12-01

We report on an on-going project aimed at determining the effects of climate variability and land use change on water resources in ephemeral productive catchments. Meteorological data (including rainfall, solar radiation, air temperature, humidity and wind speed), streamflow and groundwater levels were collected continuously for over five years in seven ephemeral catchments in southeastern Australia. The catchments, dominated by either pasture for grazing (four) or Eucalyptus globulus (blue gum) plantations of different ages (three), were located in three different geological settings. Rainfall varied from higher than the long-term average of this area for the initial years of the study period to much drier than the long-term average for the last two years. Groundwater levels in the farm sites remained stable or slightly increased through the study period, while levels declined in all the plantation catchments, where evapotranspiration rates were greater than rainfall. The trees intercept groundwater recharge and in some areas of the catchments directly access groundwater. Streamflow occurred mainly during winter, with short-term flows in summer caused by sporadic large rainfall events. Despite the large annual rainfall variability, flow rates in each year were similar in most catchments, with the duration of flow being important in determining the annual flow. The frequency rather than the amount of rainfall events determines the generation of streamflow in the two catchments with steeper slopes. The effect of the tree plantations on streamflow varied from a substantial reduction in one catchment to no effect in another, where the tree rows are oriented predominantly downslope, allowing greater runoff. In the third plantation catchment, geology is the main driver of runoff due to capture into underlying karst conduits.

Detection of Hydrologic Response at the River Basin Scale Caused by Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCormick, B. C.; Eshleman, K. N.; Griffith, J. L.; Townsend, P. A.

2008-05-01

The 187.5 km2 Georges Creek watershed, located on the Appalachian Plateau in western Maryland (USA), has experienced significant land use change due to surface mining of bituminous coal. We estimate that over 17% of the Georges Creek watershed is being actively surface-mined or was mined and reclaimed previously. The adjacent Savage River watershed (127.2 km2) is completely unaffected by surface mining. Both watersheds have long (>60 year) streamflow records maintained by USGS that were analyzed as part of this project, using Savage River as a control. Temporal analysis of the moments of the flood frequency distributions using a moving-window technique indicated that climatic variability affected both watersheds equally. Normalizing annual maximum flows by antecedent streamflow and causative precipitation allowed trends in the Georges Creek watershed flooding response to become more evident. An analysis of sixteen contemporary warm season storm events based on hourly streamflow and NEXRAD Stage III derived precipitation data provided clear evidence of differences in watershed response to rainfall. Georges Creek events (normalized by basin area and precipitation) are, on average, characterized by slightly greater (7%) peak runoff and shorter (3 hr) centroid lags than Savage River, even though the opposite was expected considering relative basin areas. These differences in stormflow response are most likely attributable to differences in current land use in the basins, particularly the large area of reclaimed minelands in Georges Creek. Interestingly, we found that Georges Creek events produce, on average, only 2/3 of the stormflow volume as Savage River, apparently due to infiltration of water into abandoned deep mine workings and an associated trans-basin drainage system that dates to the early 20th century. Long-term trend analysis at the river basin scale using empirical hydrologic methods is thus complicated by climatic variability and the legacy of deep mining in this system.

Vulnerability of stream community composition and function to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change across ecoregions in the western United States.

PubMed

Pyne, Matthew I; Poff, N LeRoy

2017-01-01

Shifts in biodiversity and ecological processes in stream ecosystems in response to rapid climate change will depend on how numerically and functionally dominant aquatic insect species respond to changes in stream temperature and hydrology. Across 253 minimally perturbed streams in eight ecoregions in the western USA, we modeled the distribution of 88 individual insect taxa in relation to existing combinations of maximum summer temperature, mean annual streamflow, and their interaction. We used a heat map approach along with downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections of warming and streamflow change to estimate site-specific extirpation likelihood for each taxon, allowing estimation of whole-community change in streams across these ecoregions. Conservative climate change projections indicate a 30-40% loss of taxa in warmer, drier ecoregions and 10-20% loss in cooler, wetter ecoregions where taxa are relatively buffered from projected warming and hydrologic change. Differential vulnerability of taxa with key functional foraging roles in processing basal resources suggests that climate change has the potential to modify stream trophic structure and function (e.g., alter rates of detrital decomposition and algal consumption), particularly in warmer and drier ecoregions. We show that streamflow change is equally as important as warming in projected risk to stream community composition and that the relative threat posed by these two fundamental drivers varies across ecoregions according to projected gradients of temperature and hydrologic change. Results also suggest that direct human modification of streams through actions such as water abstraction is likely to further exacerbate loss of taxa and ecosystem alteration, especially in drying climates. Management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on stream ecosystems or to proactively adapt to them will require regional calibration, due to geographic variation in insect sensitivity and in exposure to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Potential Future Warming on Runoff in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.

2008-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a long-term planning study of potential water-storage alternatives in the Yakima River Basin, which includes planning for climate change effects on available water resources in the basin. Previously constructed watershed models for the Yakima River Basin were used to simulate changes in unregulated streamflow under two warmer climate scenarios, one representing a 1 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus one scenario) and one representing a 2 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus two scenario). Simulations were done for water years 1981 through 2005 and the results were compared to simulated unregulated runoff for the same period using recorded daily precipitation, and minimum and maximum air temperatures (base conditions). Precipitation was not altered for the two warmer climate change scenarios. Simulated annual runoff for the plus one and plus two scenarios decreased modestly from the base conditions, but the seasonal distribution and the general pattern of runoff proved to be highly sensitive to temperature changes throughout the basin. Seasonally increased runoff was simulated during the late autumn and winter months for both the plus one and plus two scenarios compared to base conditions. Comparisons at six principal regulatory locations in the basin showed that the maximum percentage increases in runoff over the base conditions during December to March varied from 24 to 48 percent for the plus one scenario and 59 to 94 percent for the plus two scenario. During late spring and summer months, significantly decreased runoff was simulated at these sites for both scenarios compared to base conditions. Simulated maximum decreases in runoff occurred during June and July, and the changes ranged from -22 to -51 percent for the plus one scenario and -44 to -76 percent for the plus two scenario. Differences in total annual runoff at these sites ranged from -1.4 to -3.9 percent for the plus one scenario and from -2.5 to -8.2 percent for the plus two scenario. The percent change of the monthly mean runoff for both scenarios from the base conditions at many points in the basin will be used in a water-management model developed by the Bureau of Reclamation to assess various storage alternatives.

Predicting the likelihood of altered streamflows at ungauged rivers across the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eng, Kenny; Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.; Falcone, James A.

2013-01-01

An approach is presented in this study to aid water-resource managers in characterizing streamflow alteration at ungauged rivers. Such approaches can be used to take advantage of the substantial amounts of biological data collected at ungauged rivers to evaluate the potential ecological consequences of altered streamflows. National-scale random forest statistical models are developed to predict the likelihood that ungauged rivers have altered streamflows (relative to expected natural condition) for five hydrologic metrics (HMs) representing different aspects of the streamflow regime. The models use human disturbance variables, such as number of dams and road density, to predict the likelihood of streamflow alteration. For each HM, separate models are derived to predict the likelihood that the observed metric is greater than (‘inflated’) or less than (‘diminished’) natural conditions. The utility of these models is demonstrated by applying them to all river segments in the South Platte River in Colorado, USA, and for all 10-digit hydrologic units in the conterminous United States. In general, the models successfully predicted the likelihood of alteration to the five HMs at the national scale as well as in the South Platte River basin. However, the models predicting the likelihood of diminished HMs consistently outperformed models predicting inflated HMs, possibly because of fewer sites across the conterminous United States where HMs are inflated. The results of these analyses suggest that the primary predictors of altered streamflow regimes across the Nation are (i) the residence time of annual runoff held in storage in reservoirs, (ii) the degree of urbanization measured by road density and (iii) the extent of agricultural land cover in the river basin.

Alternative Regression Equations for Estimation of Annual Peak-Streamflow Frequency for Undeveloped Watersheds in Texas using PRESS Minimization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Thompson, David B.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, investigated a refinement of the regional regression method and developed alternative equations for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. A common model for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency is based on the regional regression method. The current (2008) regional regression equations for 11 regions of Texas are based on log10 transformations of all regression variables (drainage area, main-channel slope, and watershed shape). Exclusive use of log10-transformation does not fully linearize the relations between the variables. As a result, some systematic bias remains in the current equations. The bias results in overestimation of peak streamflow for both the smallest and largest watersheds. The bias increases with increasing recurrence interval. The primary source of the bias is the discernible curvilinear relation in log10 space between peak streamflow and drainage area. Bias is demonstrated by selected residual plots with superimposed LOWESS trend lines. To address the bias, a statistical framework based on minimization of the PRESS statistic through power transformation of drainage area is described and implemented, and the resulting regression equations are reported. Compared to log10-exclusive equations, the equations derived from PRESS minimization have PRESS statistics and residual standard errors less than the log10 exclusive equations. Selected residual plots for the PRESS-minimized equations are presented to demonstrate that systematic bias in regional regression equations for peak-streamflow frequency estimation in Texas can be reduced. Because the overall error is similar to the error associated with previous equations and because the bias is reduced, the PRESS-minimized equations reported here provide alternative equations for peak-streamflow frequency estimation.

Low-flow, base-flow, and mean-flow regression equations for Pennsylvania streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuckey, Marla H.

2006-01-01

Low-flow, base-flow, and mean-flow characteristics are an important part of assessing water resources in a watershed. These streamflow characteristics can be used by watershed planners and regulators to determine water availability, water-use allocations, assimilative capacities of streams, and aquatic-habitat needs. Streamflow characteristics are commonly predicted by use of regression equations when a nearby streamflow-gaging station is not available. Regression equations for predicting low-flow, base-flow, and mean-flow characteristics for Pennsylvania streams were developed from data collected at 293 continuous- and partial-record streamflow-gaging stations with flow unaffected by upstream regulation, diversion, or mining. Continuous-record stations used in the regression analysis had 9 years or more of data, and partial-record stations used had seven or more measurements collected during base-flow conditions. The state was divided into five low-flow regions and regional regression equations were developed for the 7-day, 10-year; 7-day, 2-year; 30-day, 10-year; 30-day, 2-year; and 90-day, 10-year low flows using generalized least-squares regression. Statewide regression equations were developed for the 10-year, 25-year, and 50-year base flows using generalized least-squares regression. Statewide regression equations were developed for harmonic mean and mean annual flow using weighted least-squares regression. Basin characteristics found to be significant explanatory variables at the 95-percent confidence level for one or more regression equations were drainage area, basin slope, thickness of soil, stream density, mean annual precipitation, mean elevation, and the percentage of glaciation, carbonate bedrock, forested area, and urban area within a basin. Standard errors of prediction ranged from 33 to 66 percent for the n-day, T-year low flows; 21 to 23 percent for the base flows; and 12 to 38 percent for the mean annual flow and harmonic mean, respectively. The regression equations are not valid in watersheds with upstream regulation, diversions, or mining activities. Watersheds with karst features need close examination as to the applicability of the regression-equation results.

Surface waters of Illinois River basin in Arkansas and Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laine, L.L.

1959-01-01

The estimated runoff from the Illinois River basin of 1,660 square miles has averaged 1,160,000 acre-feet per year during the water years 1938-56, equivalent to an average annual runoff depth of 13.1 inches. About 47 percent of the streamflow is contributed from drainage in Arkansas, where an average of 550,000 acre-ft per year runs off from 755 square miles, 45.5 percent of the total drainage area. The streamflow is highly variable. Twenty-two years of record for Illinois River near Tahlequah, Okla., shows a variation in runoff for the water year 1945 in comparison with 1954 in a ratio of almost 10 to 1. Runoff in 1927 may have exceeded that of 1945, according to records for White River at Beaver, Ark., the drainage basin just east of the Illinois River basin. Variation in daily discharge is suggested by a frequency analysis of low flows at the gaging station near Tahlequah, Okla. The mean flow at that site is 901 cfs (cubic feet per second), the median daily flow is 350 cfs, and the lowest 30-day mean flow in a year probably will be less than 130 cfs half of the time and less than 20 cfs every 10 years on the average. The higher runoff tends to occur in the spring months, March to May, a 3-month period that, on the average, accounts for almost half of the annual flow. High runoff may occur during any month in the year, but in general, the streamflow is the lowest in the summer. The mean monthly flow of Illinois River near Tahlequah, Okla., for September is about 11 percent of that for May. Records show that there is flow throughout the year in Illinois River and its principal tributaries Osage Creek, Flint Creek and Barren Fork. The high variability in streamflow in this region requires the development of storage by impoundment if maximum utilization of the available water supplies is to be attained. For example, a 120-day average low flow of 22 cfs occurred in 1954 at Illinois River near Tahlequah, Okla. To have maintained the flow at 350 cfs, the median daily flow during the 19-year base period, an impoundment at that site would have required a usable storage of 185,000 acre-ft to satisfy this demand during the drought years 1954-1956. The surface waters of the Illinois River basin are excellent quality being suitable for municipal, agriculture and most industrial uses. The average concentration of the dissolved mineral content is about 105 ppm (parts per million) and the hardness about 85 ppm. The water is slightly alkaline, having a range of pH values from 7.2 to 8.0. This report gives the estimated average discharge at gaging stations and approximations of average discharge at the State line for 3 sub-basins during the 19-year period October 1937 to September 1956, used as a base period in this report. Duration-of-flow data for various percentages of the time are shown for the period of observed record at the gaging stations; similar data are estimated for the selected base period. Storage requirements to sustain flow during the recent drought years are given for 3 stations. The streamflow records in the basin are presented on a monthly and annual basis through September 1957; provisional records for 3 stations are included through July 1958 for correlation purposes. Results of discharge measurements are given for miscellaneous sites where low-flow observations have been made. (available as photostat copy only)

Assessment of selected inorganic constituents in streams in the Central Arizona Basins Study Area, Arizona and northern Mexico, through 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anning, David W.

2003-01-01

Stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentrations from data collected by the National Water-Quality Assessment and other U.S. Geological Survey water-quality programs were analyzed to (1) assess water quality, (2) determine natural and human factors affecting water quality, and (3) compute stream loads for the surface-water resources in the Central Arizona Basins study area. Stream temperature, pH, dissolved-oxygen concentration and percent saturation, and dissolved-solids, suspended-sediment, and nutrient concentration data collected at 41 stream-water quality monitoring stations through water year 1998 were used in this assessment. Water-quality standards applicable to the stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentration data for the stations investigated in this study generally were met, although there were some exceedences. In a few samples from the White River, the Black River, and the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam, the pH in reaches designated as a domestic drinking water source was higher than the State of Arizona standard. More than half of the samples from the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam and almost all of the samples from the stations on the Central Arizona Project Canal?two of the three most important surface-water sources used for drinking water in the Central Arizona Basins study area?exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level for dissolved solids. Two reach-specific standards for nutrients established by the State of Arizona were exceeded many times: (1) the annual mean concentration of total phosphorus was exceeded during several years at stations on the main stems of the Salt and Verde Rivers, and (2) the annual mean concentration of total nitrogen was exceeded during several years at the Salt River near Roosevelt and at the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam. Stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentrations were related to streamflow, season, water management, stream permanence, and land and water use. Dissolved-oxygen percent saturation, pH, and nutrient concentrations were dependent on stream regulation, stream permanence, and upstream disposal of wastewater. Seasonality and correlation with streamflow were dependant on stream regulation, stream permanence, and upstream disposal of wastewater. Temporal trends in streamflow, stream properties, and water-chemistry constituent concentrations were common in streams in the Central Arizona Basins study area. Temporal trends in the streamflow of unregulated perennial reaches in the Central Highlands tended to be higher from 1900 through the 1930s, lower from the 1940s through the 1970s, and high again after the 1970s. This is similar to the pattern observed for the mean annual precipitation for the Southwestern United States and indicates long-term trends in flow of streams draining the Central Highlands were driven by long-term trends in climate. Streamflow increased over the period of record at stations on effluent-dependent reaches as a result of the increase in the urban population and associated wastewater returns to the Salt and Gila Rivers in the Phoenix metropolitan area and the Santa Cruz River in the Tucson metropolitan area. Concentrations of dissolved solids decreased in the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam and in the Verde River below Bartlett Dam. This decrease represents an improvement in the water quality and resulted from a concurrent increase in the amount of runoff entering the reservoirs. Stream loads of water-chemistry constituents were compared at different locations along the streams with one another, and stream loads were compared to upstream inputs of the constituent from natural and anthropogenic sources to determine the relative importance of different sources and to determine the fate of the water-chemistry constituent. Of the dissolved solids transported into the Basin and Range Lowlands each year

Simulation of streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the Double Mountain Fork Brazos River watershed, western Texas 1994–2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwell, Glenn R.; Stengel, Victoria G.; Bumgarner, Johnathan R.

2016-04-20

The calibrated watershed model was used to perform brush-management simulations. The National Land Cover Database 2006, which was the land-cover data used to develop the watershed model, was modified to simulate shrubland replacement with grassland in each of the 35 model subbasins. After replacement of shrubland with grassland in areas with land slope less than 20 percent and excluding riparian areas, the modeled 20-year (1994 through 2013) water yields to Lake Alan Henry increased by 114,000 acre-feet or about 5,700 acre-feet per year. In terms of the increase in water yield per acre of shrubland replaced with grassland, the average annual increase in water yield was 17,300 gallons per acre. Within the modeled subbasins, the increase in average annual water yield ranged from 5,850 to 34,400 gallons per acre of shrubland replaced with grassland. Subbasins downstream from the Justiceburg gage had a higher average annual increase in water yield (21,700 gallons per acre) than subbasins upstream from the streamflow-gaging station (16,800 gallons per acre).

Peak streamflows and runoff volumes for the Central United States, February through September, 2011: Chapter C in 2011 floods of the central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Wiche, Gregg J.; Koenig, Todd A.; Sando, Steven K.

2013-01-01

During 2011, excessive precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Souris/Red River of the North (Souris/Red) and Mississippi River Basins. At different times, beginning in late February 2011 and extending through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations receiving multiple rounds of flooding. Peak streamflow records were broken at 105 streamgages in the Souris/Red and Mississippi River Basins and annual runoff volume records set at 47 of the 211 streamgages analyzed for annual runoff. For the period of 1950 through 2011, the Ohio River provided almost one-half of the annual runoff at Vicksburg; the Missouri River contributed less than one-fourth, and the lower Mississippi River less than one-fourth. Those relative contribution patterns also occurred in 1973 and 2011, with the notable exception of the decrease in contribution of the lower Mississippi River tributaries and the increase in contribution from the upper Missouri River Basin in 2011 as compared to 1973 and the long-term average from 1950 to 2011.

Analysis of the streamflow-gaging station network in Ohio for effectiveness in providing regional streamflow information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Straub, D.E.

1998-01-01

The streamflow-gaging station network in Ohio was evaluated for its effectiveness in providing regional streamflow information. The analysis involved application of the principles of generalized least squares regression between streamflow and climatic and basin characteristics. Regression equations were developed for three flow characteristics: (1) the instantaneous peak flow with a 100-year recurrence interval (P100), (2) the mean annual flow (Qa), and (3) the 7-day, 10-year low flow (7Q10). All active and discontinued gaging stations with 5 or more years of unregulated-streamflow data with respect to each flow characteristic were used to develop the regression equations. The gaging-station network was evaluated for the current (1996) condition of the network and estimated conditions of various network strategies if an additional 5 and 20 years of streamflow data were collected. Any active or discontinued gaging station with (1) less than 5 years of unregulated-streamflow record, (2) previously defined basin and climatic characteristics, and (3) the potential for collection of more unregulated-streamflow record were included in the network strategies involving the additional 5 and 20 years of data. The network analysis involved use of the regression equations, in combination with location, period of record, and cost of operation, to determine the contribution of the data for each gaging station to regional streamflow information. The contribution of each gaging station was based on a cost-weighted reduction of the mean square error (average sampling-error variance) associated with each regional estimating equation. All gaging stations included in the network analysis were then ranked according to their contribution to the regional information for each flow characteristic. The predictive ability of the regression equations developed from the gaging station network could be improved for all three flow characteristics with the collection of additional streamflow data. The addition of new gaging stations to the network would result in an even greater improvement of the accuracy of the regional regression equations. Typically, continued data collection at stations with unregulated streamflow for all flow conditions that had less than 11 years of record with drainage areas smaller than 200 square miles contributed the largest cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling-error variance of the regional estimating equations. The results of the network analyses can be used to prioritize the continued operation of active gaging stations or the reactivation of discontinued gaging stations if the objective is to maximize the regional information content in the streamflow-gaging station network.

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazrooei, Amirhossein; Sinah, Tusshar; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2015-01-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8deg to 1/8deg spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.

Understanding drought propagation in the UK in the context of climatology and catchment properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barker, Lucy; Hannaford, Jamie; Bloomfield, John; Marchant, Ben

2017-04-01

Droughts are a complex natural phenomena that are challenging to plan and prepare for. The propagation of droughts through the hydrological cycle is one of many factors which contribute to this complexity, and a thorough understanding of drought propagation is crucial for informed drought management, particularly in terms of water resources management in both the short and long term. Previous studies have found that both climatological and catchment factors cause lags in drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological and hydrogeological droughts. There are strong gradients in both climatology and catchment properties across the UK. Catchments in the north and west of the UK are relatively impermeable, upland catchments with thin soils and receive the highest annual precipitation with relatively low mean annual temperatures. Conversely, in the south and east of the UK, characterised by higher mean temperatures and lower annual precipitation, catchments are underlain by a number of major aquifers (e.g. Chalk, limestone) and are typically associated with high baseflow rivers. Here we explore the effects of these gradients in climatology and catchments on the propagation of droughts. Using standardised drought indices (the Standardised Precipitation Index; the Standardised Streamflow Index; and the Standardised Groundwater Index) we analyse drought propagation characteristics for selected catchment-borehole pairs across the UK using reconstructed time series back to the 19th century. We investigate how the timing, nature and predictability of drought propagation changes across the UK, given gradients in climatology and catchment characteristics. We use probability of detection methods, usually used for forecast verification, to investigate how well precipitation and streamflow deficits predict deficits in streamflow and groundwater levels and how this varies across the UK.

Application of dimensionless sediment rating curves to predict suspended-sediment concentrations, bedload, and annual sediment loads for rivers in Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Christopher A.; Groten, Joel T.; Lorenz, David L.; Koller, Karl S.

2016-10-27

Consistent and reliable sediment data are needed by Federal, State, and local government agencies responsible for monitoring water quality, planning river restoration, quantifying sediment budgets, and evaluating the effectiveness of sediment reduction strategies. Heightened concerns about excessive sediment in rivers and the challenge to reduce costs and eliminate data gaps has guided Federal and State interests in pursuing alternative methods for measuring suspended and bedload sediment. Simple and dependable data collection and estimation techniques are needed to generate hydraulic and water-quality information for areas where data are unavailable or difficult to collect.The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, completed a study to evaluate the use of dimensionless sediment rating curves (DSRCs) to accurately predict suspended-sediment concentrations (SSCs), bedload, and annual sediment loads for selected rivers and streams in Minnesota based on data collected during 2007 through 2013. This study included the application of DSRC models developed for a small group of streams located in the San Juan River Basin near Pagosa Springs in southwestern Colorado to rivers in Minnesota. Regionally based DSRC models for Minnesota also were developed and compared to DSRC models from Pagosa Springs, Colorado, to evaluate which model provided more accurate predictions of SSCs and bedload in Minnesota.Multiple measures of goodness-of-fit were developed to assess the effectiveness of DSRC models in predicting SSC and bedload for rivers in Minnesota. More than 600 dimensionless ratio values of SSC, bedload, and streamflow were evaluated and delineated according to Pfankuch stream stability categories of “good/fair” and “poor” to develop four Minnesota-based DSRC models. The basis for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota DSRC model effectiveness was founded on measures of goodness-of-fit that included proximity of the model(s) fitted line to the 95-percent confidence intervals of the site-specific model, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values, model biases, and deviation of annual sediment loads from each model to the annual sediment loads calculated from measured data.Composite plots comparing Pagosa Springs DSRCs, Minnesota DSRCs, site-specific regression models, and measured data indicated that regionally developed DSRCs (Minnesota DSRC models) more closely approximated measured data for nearly every site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models had markedly larger exponents (slopes) when compared to the Minnesota DSRC models and the site-specific regression models, and over-represent SSC and bedload at streamflows exceeding bankfull. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for the Minnesota DSRC model for suspended-sediment concentrations closely matched Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of the site-specific regression models for 12 out of 16 sites. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values associated with Minnesota DSRCs were greater than those associated with Pagosa Springs DSRCs for every site except the Whitewater River near Beaver, Minnesota site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models were less accurate than the mean of the measured data at predicting SSC values for one-half of the sites for good/fair stability sites and one-half of the sites for poor stability sites. Relative model biases were calculated and determined to be substantial (greater than 5 percent) for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota models, with Minnesota models having a lower mean model bias. For predicted annual suspended-sediment loads (SSL), the Minnesota DSRC models for good/fair and poor stream stability sites more closely approximated the annual SSLs calculated from the measured data as compared to the Pagosa Springs DSRC model.Results of data analyses indicate that DSRC models developed using data collected in Minnesota were more effective at compensating for differences in individual stream characteristics across a variety of basin sizes and flow regimes than DSRC models developed using data collected for Pagosa Springs, Colorado. Minnesota DSRC models retained a substantial portion of the unique sediment signatures for most rivers, although deviations were observed for streams with limited sediment supply and for rivers in southeastern Minnesota, which had markedly larger regression exponents. Compared to Pagosa Springs DSRC models, Minnesota DSRC models had regression slopes that more closely matched the slopes of site-specific regression models, had greater Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values, had lower model biases, and approximated measured annual sediment loads more closely. The results presented in this report indicate that regionally based DSRCs can be used to estimate reasonably accurate values of SSC and bedload.Practitioners are cautioned that DSRC reliability is dependent on representative measures of bankfull streamflow, SSC, and bedload. It is, therefore, important that samples of SSC and bedload, which will be used for estimating SSC and bedload at the bankfull streamflow, are collected over a range of conditions that includes the ascending and descending limbs of the event hydrograph. The use of DSRC models may have substantial limitations for certain conditions. For example, DSRC models should not be used to predict SSC and sediment loads for extreme streamflows, such as those that exceed twice the bankfull streamflow value because this constitutes conditions beyond the realm of current (2016) empirical modeling capability. Also, if relations between SSC and streamflow and between bedload and streamflow are not statistically significant, DSRC models should not be used to predict SSC or bedload, as this could result in large errors. For streams that do not violate these conditions, DSRC estimates of SSC and bedload can be used for stream restoration planning and design, and for estimating annual sediment loads for streams where little or no sediment data are available.

Trends in streamflow in the Yukon River Basin from 1944 to 2005 and the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabets, T.P.; Walvoord, Michelle Ann

2009-01-01

Streamflow characteristics in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska and Canada have changed from 1944 to 2005, and some of the change can be attributed to the two most recent modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Seasonal, monthly, and annual stream discharge data from 21 stations in the Yukon River Basin were analyzed for trends over the entire period of record, generally spanning 4-6 decades, and examined for differences between the two most recent modes of the PDO: cold-PDO (1944-1975) and warm-PDO (1976-2005) subsets. Between 1944 and 2005, average winter and April flow increased at 15 sites. Observed winter flow increases during the cold-PDO phase were generally limited to sites in the Upper Yukon River Basin. Positive trends in winter flow during the warm-PDO phase broadened to include stations in the Middle and Lower Yukon River drainage basins. Increases in winter streamflow most likely result from groundwater input enhanced by permafrost thawing that promotes infiltration and deeper subsurface flow paths. Increased April flow may be attributed to a combination of greater baseflow (from groundwater increases), earlier spring snowmelt and runoff, and increased winter precipitation, depending on location. Calculated deviations from long-term mean monthly discharges indicate below-average flow in the winter months during the cold PDO and above-average flow in the winter months during the warm PDO. Although not as strong a signal, results also support the reverse response during the summer months: above-average flow during the cold PDO and below-average flow during the warm PDO. Changes in the summer flows are likely an indirect consequence of the PDO, resulting from earlier spring snowmelt runoff and also perhaps increased summer infiltration and storage in a deeper active layer. Annual discharge has remained relatively unchanged in the Yukon River Basin, but a few glacier-fed rivers demonstrate positive trends, which can be attributed to enhanced glacier melting. A positive trend in annual flow during the warm PDO near the mouth of the Yukon River suggests that small increases in flow throughout the Yukon River Basin have resulted in an additive effect manifested in the downstream-most streamflow station. Many of the identified changes in streamflow patterns in the Yukon River Basin show a correlation to the PDO regime shift. This work highlights the importance of considering proximate climate forcings as well as global climate change when assessing hydrologic changes in the Arctic.

Estimated Loads of Suspended Sediment and Selected Trace Elements Transported through Milltown Reservoir in the Upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, Water Years 2004-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lambing, John H.; Sando, Steven K.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this report is to present estimated daily and annual loads of suspended sediment and selected trace elements for water years 2004-07 at two sites upstream and one site downstream from Milltown Reservoir. Milltown Reservoir is a National Priorities List Superfund site in the upper Clark Fork basin of western Montana where sediments enriched in trace elements from historical mining and ore processing have been deposited since the construction of Milltown Dam in 1907. The estimated loads were used to quantify annual net gains and losses (mass balance) of suspended sediment and trace elements within Milltown Reservoir before and after June 1, 2006, which was the start of Stage 1 of a permanent drawdown of the reservoir in preparation for removal of Milltown Dam. This study was done in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Daily loads of suspended sediment were estimated for water years 2004-07 by using either high-frequency sampling as part of daily sediment monitoring or regression equations relating suspended-sediment discharge to streamflow. Daily loads of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, and zinc were estimated by using regression equations relating trace-element discharge to suspended-sediment discharge. Regression equations were developed from data for eriodic water-quality samples collected during water years 2004-07. The equations were applied to daily records of either streamflow or suspended-sediment discharge to produce estimated daily loads. Variations in daily suspended-sediment and trace-element loads generally coincided with variations in streamflow. For most of the period before June 1, 2006, differences in daily loads transported to and from Milltown Reservoir were minor or indicated small amounts of deposition; however, losses of suspended sediment and trace elements from the reservoir occurred during temporary drawdowns in July-August 2004 and October-December 2005. After the start of Stage 1 of the permanent drawdown on June 1, 2006, losses of suspended sediment and trace elements from the reservoir persisted for all streamflow conditions during the entire interval of the Stage 1 drawdown (June 1, 2006-September 30, 2007) within the study period. Estimated daily loads of suspended sediment and trace elements were summed for each year to produce estimated annual loads used to determine the annual net gains (deposition) or losses (erosion) of each constituent within Milltown Reservoir during water years 2004-07. During water year 2004, there was an annual net gain of suspended sediment in the reservoir. The annual net gains and losses of trace elements were inconsistent in water year 2004, with gains occurring for arsenic ad iron, but losses occurring for cadmium, copper, lead, manganese, and zinc. In water year 2005, there were annual net gains of suspended sediment and all the trace elements within the reservoir. In water year 2006, there were annual net losses of all constituents from the reservoir, likely as the result of sediment erosion from the reservoir during both a temporary drawdown in October-December 2005 and Stage 1 of the permanent drawdown that continued after June 1, 2006. In water year 2007, when the Stage 1 drawdown was in effect for the entire year, there were large annual net losses of suspended sediment and trace elements from the reservoir. The annual net losses of constituents from Milltown Reservoir in water year 2007 were the largest of any year during the 2004-07 study period. In water year 2007, the annual net loss of suspended sediment from the reservoir was 130,000 tons, which was more than double (about 222 percent) the combined inflow to the reservoir. The largest annual net losses of trace elements in water year 2007, in percent of the combined inflow to the reservoir, occurred for cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc-about 190 percent for cadmium, 170 percent for copper, 150 percent for lead, and 238 p

Can Low Frequency Measurements Be Good Enough? - A Statistical Assessment of Citizen Hydrology Streamflow Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davids, J. C.; Rutten, M.; Van De Giesen, N.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic data has traditionally been collected with permanent installations of sophisticated and relatively accurate but expensive monitoring equipment at limited numbers of sites. Consequently, the spatial coverage of the data is limited and costs are high. Achieving adequate maintenance of sophisticated monitoring equipment often exceeds local technical and resource capacity, and permanently deployed monitoring equipment is susceptible to vandalism, theft, and other hazards. Rather than using expensive, vulnerable installations at a few points, SmartPhones4Water (S4W), a form of Citizen Hydrology, leverages widely available mobile technology to gather hydrologic data at many sites in a manner that is repeatable and scalable. However, there is currently a limited understanding of the impact of decreased observational frequency on the accuracy of key streamflow statistics like minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff. As a first step towards evaluating the tradeoffs between traditional continuous monitoring approaches and emerging Citizen Hydrology methods, we randomly selected 50 active U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gauges in California. We used historical 15 minute flow data from 01/01/2008 through 12/31/2014 to develop minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff values (7 year total) for each gauge. In order to mimic lower frequency Citizen Hydrology observations, we developed a bootstrap randomized subsampling with replacement procedure. We calculated the same statistics, along with their respective distributions, from 50 subsample iterations with four different subsampling intervals (i.e. daily, three day, weekly, and monthly). Based on our results we conclude that, depending on the types of questions being asked, and the watershed characteristics, Citizen Hydrology streamflow measurements can provide useful and accurate information. Depending on watershed characteristics, minimum flows were reasonably estimated with subsample intervals ranging from daily to monthly. However, maximum flows in most cases were poorly characterized, even at daily subsample intervals. In general, runoff volumes were accurately estimated from daily, three day, weekly, and even in some cases, monthly observations.

Response of streamflow to climate change in a sub-basin of the source region of the Yellow River based on a tank model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Pan; Wang, Xu-Sheng; Liang, Sihai

2018-06-01

Though extensive researches were conducted in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) to analyse climate change influence on streamflow, however, few researches concentrate on streamflow of the sub-basin above the Huangheyan station in the SRYR (HSRYR) where a water retaining dam was built in the outlet in 1999. To improve the reservoir regulation strategies, this study analysed streamflow change of the HSRYR in a mesoscale. A tank model (TM) was proposed and calibrated with monthly observation streamflow from 1991 to 1998. In the validation period, though there is a simulation deviation during the water storage and power generation period, simulated streamflow agrees favourably with observation data from 2008 to 2013. The model was further validated by two inside lakes area obtained from Landsat 5, 7, 8 datasets from 2000 to 2014, and significant correlations were found between the simulated lake outlet runoff and respective lake area. Then 21 Global Climate Models (GCM) ensembled data of three emission scenarios (SRA2, SRA1B and SRB1) were downscaled and used as input to the TM to simulate the runoff change of three benchmark periods 2011-2030 (2020s), 2046-2065 (2050s), 2080-2099 (2090s), respectively. Though temperature increase dramatically, these projected results similarly indicated that streamflow shows an increase trend in the long term. Runoff increase is mainly caused by increasing precipitation and decreasing evaporation. Water resources distribution is projected to change from summer-autumn dominant to autumn winter dominant. Annual lowest runoff will occur in May caused by earlier snow melting and increasing evaporation in March. According to the obtained results, winter runoff should be artificially stored by reservoir regulation in the future to prevent zero-flow occurrent in May. This research is helpful for water resources management and provides a better understand of streamflow change caused by climate change in the future.

Changes in biological communities of the Fountain Creek Basin, Colorado, 2003–2016, in relation to antecedent streamflow, water quality, and habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James J.; Bruce, James F.; Zuellig, Robert E.

2018-01-08

The analysis described in this report is part of a longterm project monitoring the biological communities, habitat, and water quality of the Fountain Creek Basin. Biology, habitat, and water-quality data have been collected at 10 sites since 2003. These data include annual samples of aquatic invertebrate communities, fish communities, water quality, and quantitative riverine habitat. This report examines trends in biological communities from 2003 to 2016 and explores relationships between biological communities and abiotic variables (antecedent streamflow, physical habitat, and water quality). Six biological metrics (three invertebrate and three fish) and four individual fish species were used to examine trends in these data and how streamflow, habitat, and (or) water quality may explain these trends. The analysis of 79 trends shows that the majority of significant trends decreased over the trend period. Overall, 19 trends before adjustments for streamflow in the fish (12) and invertebrate (7) metrics were all decreasing except for the metric Invertebrate Species Richness at the most upstream site in Monument Creek. Seven of these trends were explained by streamflow and four trends were revealed that were originally masked by variability in antecedent streamflow. Only two sites (Jimmy Camp Creek at Fountain, CO and Fountain Creek near Pinon, CO) had no trends in the fish or invertebrate metrics. Ten of the streamflow-adjusted trends were explained by habitat, one was explained by water quality, and five were not explained by any of the variables that were tested. Overall, from 2003 to 2016, all the fish metric trends were decreasing with an average decline of 40 percent, and invertebrate metrics decreased on average by 9.5 percent. A potential peak streamflow threshold was identified above which there is severely limited production of age-0 flathead chub (Platygobio gracilis).

Water resources data for Pennsylvania, water year 1995. Volume 2. Susquehanna and Potomac River basins. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1994-30 September 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Durlin, R.R.; Schaffstall, W.P.

1997-02-01

This report, Volume, 2, includes record from the Susquehanna and Potomac River Basins. Specifically, it contains: (1) discharge records for 90 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and 41 partial-record stations; (2) elevation and contents record for 12 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water-quality records for 13 streamflow-gaging stations and 189 partial-record and project stations; and (4) water-level records for 25 network observation wells. Site locations are shown in figures throughout the report. Additional water data collected at various sites not involved in the systematic data-collection program are also presented.

Statistical analysis of water-level, springflow, and streamflow data for the Edwards Aquifer in south-central Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puente, Celso

1976-01-01

Water-level, springflow, and streamflow data were used to develop simple and multiple linear-regression equations for use in estimating water levels in wells and the flow of three major springs in the Edwards aquifer in the eastern San Antonio area. The equations provide daily, monthly, and annual estimates that compare very favorably with observed data. Analyses of geologic and hydrologic data indicate that the water discharged by the major springs is supplied primarily by regional underflow from the west and southwest and by local recharge in the infiltration area in northern Bexar, Comal, and Hays Counties.

Estimated use of water in the United States in 1970

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murray, Charles Richard; Reeves, E. Bodette

1972-01-01

The average annual streamflow--simplified measure of the total available water supply--is approximately 1,200 bgd in the conterminous United States. Total water withdrawn in 1970 for off-channel uses (withdrawals other than for hydroelectric power) amounted to about 30 percent of the average annual streamflow: 7 percent of the 1,200 bgd basic supply was consumed. However, comparisons of Water Resources Council regions indicate that the rate of withdrawal was higher than the locally dependable supply in the Middle Atlantic, Texas-Gulf, Rio Grande, Lower Colorado, and California-South Pacific regions. Consumption amounted to nearly 25 percent of withdrawals in the conterminous United States; however, fresh-water consumption amounted to only 14 percent of off-channel withdrawals in the 31 Eastern States and ranged from 30 percent to nearly 70 percent of off-channel withdrawals in the Water Resources Council regions in the West. In the Rio Grande and Lower Colorado regions, fresh-water consumption in 1970 exceeded the estimated dependable supply of fresh water.

An application of bioassessment metrics and multivariate techniques to evaluate central Nebraska streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frenzel, S.A.

1996-01-01

Ninety-one stream sites in central Nebraska were classified into four clusters on the basis of a cluster analysis (TWINSPAN) of macroinvertebrate data. Rapid bioassessment protocol scores for macroinvertebrate species were significantly different among sites grouped by teh first division into two clusters. This division may have distinguished sites on the basis of water-quality imparement. Individual metrics that differed between clusters of sites were the Hilsenhoff Biotic Index, the number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa, and the ratio of individuals in EPT to Chironomidae taxa. Canonical correspondence analysis of 57 of 91 sites showed that stream width, site altitude, latitude, soil permeability, water temperature, and mean annual precipitation were the most important environmental variables describing variance in the species-environment relation. Stream width and soil permeability reflected streamflow characteristics of a site, whereas site altitude and latitude were factors related to general climatic conditions. Mean annual precipitation related to both streamflow and climatic conditions.

Michigan Water Year 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blumer, S.P.; Whited, C.R.; Ellis, J.M.; Minnerick, R.J.; LeuVoy, R.L.

2006-01-01

This volume of the annual hydrologic data report of Michigan is one of a series of annual reports that document hydrologic data gathered from the U.S. Geological Survey's surface- and ground-water data-collection networks in each state, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territories. These records of streamflow, ground-water levels, and quality of water provide the hydrologic information needed by State, local, and Federal agencies, and the private sector for developing and managing our Nation's land and water resources.

Water resources data-Maine, water year 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, G.J.; Caldwell, J.M.; Cloutier, A.R.

2004-01-01

This volume of the annual hydrologic data report of Maine is one of a series of annual reports that document data gathered from the U.S. Geological Survey's surface- and ground-water data-collection networks in each State, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territories. These records of streamflow, ground-water levels, and quality of water provide the hydrologic information needed by State, local, and Federal agencies, and the private sector for developing and managing our Nation's land and water resources.

Hydrology of the North Klondike River: carbon export, water balance and inter-annual climate influences within a sub-alpine permafrost catchment.

PubMed

Lapp, Anthony; Clark, Ian; Macumber, Andrew; Patterson, Tim

2017-10-01

Arctic and sub-arctic watersheds are undergoing significant changes due to recent climate warming and degrading permafrost, engendering enhanced monitoring of arctic rivers. Smaller catchments provide understanding of discharge, solute flux and groundwater recharge at the process level that contributes to an understanding of how larger arctic watersheds are responding to climate change. The North Klondike River, located in west central Yukon, is a sub-alpine permafrost catchment, which maintains an active hydrological monitoring station with a record of >40 years. In addition to being able to monitor intra-annual variability, this data set allows for more complex analysis of streamflow records. Streamflow data, geochemistry and stable isotope data for 2014 show a groundwater-dominated system, predominantly recharged during periods of snowmelt. Radiocarbon is shown to be a valuable tracer of soil zone recharge processes and carbon sources. Winter groundwater baseflow contributes 20 % of total annual discharge, and accounts for up to 50 % of total river discharge during the spring and summer months. Although total stream discharge remains unchanged, mean annual groundwater baseflow has increased over the 40-year monitoring period. Wavelet analysis reveals a catchment that responds to El Niño and longer solar cycles, as well as climatic shifts such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Dedicated to Professor Peter Fritz on the occasion of his 80th birthday.

Sediment transport and evaluation of sediment surrogate ratings in the Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho, Water Years 2011–14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Molly S.; Fosness, Ryan L.; Etheridge, Alexandra B.

2015-12-14

Acoustic surrogate ratings were developed between backscatter data collected using acoustic Doppler velocity meters (ADVMs) and results of suspended-sediment samples. Ratings were successfully fit to various sediment size classes (total, fines, and sands) using ADVMs of different frequencies (1.5 and 3 megahertz). Surrogate ratings also were developed using variations of streamflow and seasonal explanatory variables. The streamflow surrogate ratings produced average annual sediment load estimates that were 8–32 percent higher, depending on site and sediment type, than estimates produced using the acoustic surrogate ratings. The streamflow surrogate ratings tended to overestimate suspended-sediment concentrations and loads during periods of elevated releases from Libby Dam as well as on the falling limb of the streamflow hydrograph. Estimates from the acoustic surrogate ratings more closely matched suspended-sediment sample results than did estimates from the streamflow surrogate ratings during these periods as well as for rating validation samples collected in water year 2014. Acoustic surrogate technologies are an effective means to obtain continuous, accurate estimates of suspended-sediment concentrations and loads for general monitoring and sediment-transport modeling. In the Kootenai River, continued operation of the acoustic surrogate sites and use of the acoustic surrogate ratings to calculate continuous suspended-sediment concentrations and loads will allow for tracking changes in sediment transport over time.

Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt; ...

2018-01-26

Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that futuremore » disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate–disturbance scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. Furthermore, these findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.« less

A hybrid model to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow for an ungauged mountainous basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chong; Xu, Jianhua; Chen, Yaning; Bai, Ling; Chen, Zhongsheng

2018-04-01

To quantitatively assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow in an ungauged mountainous basin is a difficult and challenging work. In this study, a hybrid model combing downscaling method based on earth data products, back propagation artificial neural networks (BPANN) and weights connection method was developed to explore an approach for solving this problem. To validate the applicability of the hybrid model, the Kumarik River and Toshkan River, two headwaters of the Aksu River, were employed to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow by using this hybrid model. The conclusion is that the hybrid model presented a good performance, and the quantitative assessment results for the two headwaters are: (1) the precipitation respectively increased by 48.5 and 41.0 mm in the Kumarik catchment and Toshkan catchment, and the average annual temperature both increased by 0.1 °C in the two catchments during each decade from 1980 to 2012; (2) with the warming and wetting climate, the streamflow respectively increased 1.5 × 108 and 3.3 × 108 m3 per decade in the Kumarik River and the Toshkan River; and (3) the contribution of the temperature and precipitation to the streamflow, which were 64.01 ± 7.34, 35.99 ± 7.34 and 47.72 ± 8.10, 52.26 ± 8.10%, respectively in the Kumarik catchment and Toshkan catchment. Our study introduced a feasible hybrid model for the assessment of the impact of climate variability on streamflow, which can be used in the ungauged mountainous basin of Northwest China.

Techniques for estimating peak-streamflow frequency for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.

1997-01-01

Statewide regression equations for Oklahoma were determined for estimating peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years for ungaged sites on natural unregulated streams. The most significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for natural unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and mean-annual precipitation. The regression equations are applicable for watersheds with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation from manmade works. Limitations on the use of the regression relations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are discussed. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climatic characteristics, and the peak-stream-flow frequency estimates for 251 gaging stations in Oklahoma and adjacent states are listed. Techniques are presented to make a peak-streamflow frequency estimate for gaged sites on natural unregulated streams and to use this result to estimate a nearby ungaged site on the same stream. For ungaged sites on urban streams, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow frequency. For ungaged sites on streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow frequency. The statewide regression equations are adjusted by substituting the drainage area below the floodwater retarding structures, or drainage area that represents the percentage of the unregulated basin, in the contributing drainage area parameter to obtain peak-streamflow frequency estimates.

Processes Controlling Baseflow and Climatic Warming Effects in Merced River, Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, F.; Conklin, M. H.; Shaw, G.; Bales, R. C.; Conrad, M. E.; Rice, R.

2006-12-01

Sources of streamflow in Merced River were determined using stable isotopes and chemical tracers in order to improve our understanding of hydrologic controls on streamflow and their relationship with climatic warming in the region. Samples were collected from streamflow, groundwater, and natural springs from 2003 to 2006. Both stable isotopes and specific conductivity in streamflow showed a strong seasonality, with lower values from April to July during the snowmelt season, higher values from August to October during dry season, and intermediate values from November to March during winter rainfall and snowfall. Two components controlling baseflow (streamflow from August to October) in the Upper Merced River were identified: shallow subsurface runoff from snowmelt infiltration and groundwater from fractured bedrock. Conductivity in baseflow increased rapidly with discharge, following a power law (R2 > 0.96, p < 0.05), and peaked in October, indicating that the contribution of shallow subsurface runoff to baseflow was significant but decreased rapidly from August to October. Baseflow appears to be very sensitive to the snowmelt timing and regime. From 1976 to 2005, during a period of increasing temperature in the region, streamflow tended to decrease significantly during October (p < 0.05) and increase during March (p < 0.05). However, total annual precipitation did not change significantly, indicating that the shift in baseflow discharge is a result of the early onset of snowmelt due to climatic warming. If climatic warming continues in the region, baseflow in the Sierra Nevada may continue decreasing and water supply may suffer increased stress during the late summer, high water-demand period.