The effect of changes in sea surface temperature on linear growth of Porites coral in Ambon Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corvianawatie, Corry, E-mail: corvianawatie@students.itb.ac.id; Putri, Mutiara R., E-mail: mutiara.putri@fitb.itb.ac.id; Cahyarini, Sri Y., E-mail: yuda@geotek.lipi.go.id

Coral is one of the most important organisms in the coral reef ecosystem. There are several factors affecting coral growth, one of them is changes in sea surface temperature (SST). The purpose of this research is to understand the influence of SST variability on the annual linear growth of Porites coral taken from Ambon Bay. The annual coral linear growth was calculated and compared to the annual SST from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST v3b) model. Coral growth was calculated by using Coral X-radiograph Density System (CoralXDS) software. Coral sample X-radiographs were used as input data.more » Chronology was developed by calculating the coral’s annual growth bands. A pair of high and low density banding patterns observed in the coral’s X-radiograph represent one year of coral growth. The results of this study shows that Porites coral extents from 2001-2009 and had an average growth rate of 1.46 cm/year. Statistical analysis shows that the annual coral linear growth declined by 0.015 cm/year while the annual SST declined by 0.013°C/year. SST and the annual linear growth of Porites coral in the Ambon Bay is insignificantly correlated with r=0.304 (n=9, p>0.05). This indicates that annual SST variability does not significantly influence the linear growth of Porites coral from Ambon Bay. It is suggested that sedimentation load, salinity, pH or other environmental factors may affect annual linear coral growth.« less

Understanding Arctic Surface Temperature Differences in Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard; Zhao, Bin; Shuman, Christopher; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. A review of surface temperature differences is presented with a particular focus on differences in contemporary reanalyses. An important consideration is the significant differences in Arctic surfaces, including the central Arctic Ocean, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and non-glaciated land. While there is significant correlation among reanalyses in annual time series, there is substantial disagreement in mean values. For the period 1980-2013, the trend in annual temperature ranges from 0.3 to 0.7K per decade. Over the central Arctic Ocean, differences in mean values and trends are larger. Most of the uncertainty is associated with winter months. This is likely associated with the constraint imposed by melting processes (i.e. 0 deg. Celsius), rather than seasonal changes to the observing system.

A RESEARCH PLAN FOR THE USE OF THERMAL AVHRR IMAGERY TO STUDY ANNUAL AND SEASONAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR LARGE LAKES IN NORTH AMERICA

EPA Science Inventory

Surface and vertical temperature data will be obtained from several large lakes With surface areas large enough to be effectively sampled with AVHRR imagery. Yearly and seasonal patterns of surface and whole water column thermal values will be compared to estimates of surface tem...

Reduction of the Livestock Ammonia Emission under the Changing Temperature during the Initial Manure Nitrogen Biomineralization

PubMed Central

Bagdonienė, Indrė; Baležentienė, Ligita

2013-01-01

Experimental data were applied for the modelling optimal cowshed temperature environment in laboratory test bench by a mass-flow method. The principal factor affecting exponent growth of ammonia emission was increasing air and manure surface temperature. With the manure temperature increasing from 4°C to 30°C, growth in the ammonia emission grew fourfold, that is, from 102 to 430 mg m−2h−1. Especial risk emerges when temperature exceeds 20°C: an increase in temperature of 1°C contributes to the intensity of ammonia emission by 17 mg m−2h−1. The temperatures of air and manure surface as well as those of its layers are important when analysing emission processes from manure. Indeed, it affects the processes occurring on the manure surface, namely, dehydration and crust formation. To reduce ammonia emission from cowshed, it is important to optimize the inner temperature control and to manage air circulation, especially at higher temperatures, preventing the warm ambient air from blowing direct to manure. Decrease in mean annual temperature of 1°C would reduce the annual ammonia emission by some 5.0%. The air temperature range varied between −15°C and 30°C in barns. The highest mean annual temperature (14.6°C) and ammonia emission (218 mg m−2h−1) were observed in the semideep cowshed. PMID:24453912

Shallow bedrock limits groundwater seepage-based headwater climate refugia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Martin A.; Lane, John W.; Snyder, Craig D.; White, Eric A.; Johnson, Zachary; Nelms, David L.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.

2018-01-01

Groundwater/surface-water exchanges in streams are inexorably linked to adjacent aquifer dynamics. As surface-water temperatures continue to increase with climate warming, refugia created by groundwater connectivity is expected to enable cold water fish species to survive. The shallow alluvial aquifers that source groundwater seepage to headwater streams, however, may also be sensitive to seasonal and long-term air temperature dynamics. Depth to bedrock can directly influence shallow aquifer flow and thermal sensitivity, but is typically ill-defined along the stream corridor in steep mountain catchments. We employ rapid, cost-effective passive seismic measurements to evaluate the variable thickness of the shallow colluvial and alluvial aquifer sediments along a headwater stream supporting cold water-dependent brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in Shenandoah National Park, VA, USA. Using a mean depth to bedrock of 2.6 m, numerical models predicted strong sensitivity of shallow aquifer temperature to the downward propagation of surface heat. The annual temperature dynamics (annual signal amplitude attenuation and phase shift) of potential seepage sourced from the shallow modeled aquifer were compared to several years of paired observed stream and air temperature records. Annual stream water temperature patterns were found to lag local air temperature by ∼8–19 d along the stream corridor, indicating that thermal exchange between the stream and shallow groundwater is spatially variable. Locations with greater annual signal phase lag were also associated with locally increased amplitude attenuation, further suggestion of year-round buffering of channel water temperature by groundwater seepage. Numerical models of shallow groundwater temperature that incorporate regional expected climate warming trends indicate that the summer cooling capacity of this groundwater seepage will be reduced over time, and lower-elevation stream sections may no longer serve as larger-scale climate refugia for cold water fish species, even with strong groundwater discharge.

Temperature and size variabilities of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Xiao-Hai; Ho, Chung-Ru; Zheng, Quanan; Klemas, Vic

1992-01-01

Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were tracked with 10 years of satellite multichannel sea-surface temperature observations from 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities, El Nino-Southern Oscillaton events, volcanic activities, and global warming.

Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Dabang; Wang, Huijun; Lang, Xianmei

2005-07-01

Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961 1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCAR-PCM, are systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models’ ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors are displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compared with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances are much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.

Inferring watershed hydraulics and cold-water habitat persistence using multi-year air and stream temperature signals.

PubMed

Briggs, Martin A; Johnson, Zachary C; Snyder, Craig D; Hitt, Nathaniel P; Kurylyk, Barret L; Lautz, Laura; Irvine, Dylan J; Hurley, Stephen T; Lane, John W

2018-09-15

Streams strongly influenced by groundwater discharge may serve as "climate refugia" for sensitive species in regions of increasingly marginal thermal conditions. The main goal of this study is to develop paired air and stream water annual temperature signal analysis techniques to elucidate the relative groundwater contribution to stream water and the effective groundwater flowpath depth. Groundwater discharge to streams attenuates surface water temperature signals, and this attenuation can be diagnostic of groundwater gaining systems. Additionally, discharge from shallow groundwater flowpaths can theoretically transfer lagged annual temperature signals from aquifer to stream water. Here we explore this concept using multi-year temperature records from 120 stream sites located across 18 mountain watersheds of Shenandoah National Park, VA, USA and a coastal watershed in Massachusetts, USA. Both areas constitute important cold-water habitat for native brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). Observed annual temperature signals indicate a dominance of shallow groundwater discharge to streams in the National Park, in contrast to the coastal watershed that has strong, apparently deeper, groundwater influence. The average phase lag from air to stream signals in Shenandoah National Park is 11 d; however, extended lags of approximately 1 month were observed in a subset of streams. In contrast, the coastal stream has pronounced attenuation of annual temperature signals without notable phase lag. To better understand these observed differences in signal characteristics, analytical and numerical models are used to quantify mixing of the annual temperature signals of surface and groundwater. Simulations using a total heat budget numerical model indicate groundwater-induced annual temperature signal phase lags are likely to show greater downstream propagation than the related signal amplitude attenuation. The measurement of multi-seasonal paired air and water temperatures offers great promise toward understanding catchment processes and informing current cold-water habitat management at ecologically-relevant scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature, Tropospheric Humidity and Lapse Rate on the Annual Cycle of the Clear-Sky Greenhouse Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, H.; Liu, W.

2000-01-01

The implication of this work will provide modeling study a surrogate of annual cycle of the greenhouse effect. For example, the model should be able to simulate the annual cycle before it can be used for global change study.

Identifying anthropogenic anomalies in air, surface and groundwater temperatures in Germany.

PubMed

Benz, Susanne A; Bayer, Peter; Blum, Philipp

2017-04-15

Human activity directly influences ambient air, surface and groundwater temperatures. The most prominent phenomenon is the urban heat island effect, which has been investigated particularly in large and densely populated cities. This study explores the anthropogenic impact on the thermal regime not only in selected urban areas, but on a countrywide scale for mean annual temperature datasets in Germany in three different compartments: measured surface air temperature, measured groundwater temperature, and satellite-derived land surface temperature. Taking nighttime lights as an indicator of rural areas, the anthropogenic heat intensity is introduced. It is applicable to each data set and provides the difference between measured local temperature and median rural background temperature. This concept is analogous to the well-established urban heat island intensity, but applicable to each measurement point or pixel of a large, even global, study area. For all three analyzed temperature datasets, anthropogenic heat intensity grows with increasing nighttime lights and declines with increasing vegetation, whereas population density has only minor effects. While surface anthropogenic heat intensity cannot be linked to specific land cover types in the studied resolution (1km×1km) and classification system, both air and groundwater show increased heat intensities for artificial surfaces. Overall, groundwater temperature appears most vulnerable to human activity, albeit the different compartments are partially influenced through unrelated processes; unlike land surface temperature and surface air temperature, groundwater temperatures are elevated in cultivated areas as well. At the surface of Germany, the highest anthropogenic heat intensity with 4.5K is found at an open-pit lignite mine near Jülich, followed by three large cities (Munich, Düsseldorf and Nuremberg) with annual mean anthropogenic heat intensities >4K. Overall, surface anthropogenic heat intensities >0K and therefore urban heat islands are observed in communities down to a population of 5000. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

Effects of thermal vapor diffusion on seasonal dynamics of water in the unsaturated zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.

1996-01-01

The response of water in the unsaturated zone to seasonal changes of temperature (T) is determined analytically using the theory of nonisothermal water transport in porous media, and the solutions are tested against field observations of moisture potential and bomb fallout isotopic (36Cl and 3H) concentrations. Seasonally varying land surface temperatures and the resulting subsurface temperature gradients induce thermal vapor diffusion. The annual mean vertical temperature gradient is close to zero; however, the annual mean thermal vapor flux is downward, because the temperature‐dependent vapor diffusion coefficient is larger, on average, during downward diffusion (occurring at high T) than during upward diffusion (low T). The annual mean thermal vapor flux is shown to decay exponentially with depth; the depth (about 1 m) at which it decays to e−1of its surface value is one half of the corresponding decay depth for the amplitude of seasonal temperature changes. This depth‐dependent annual mean flux is effectively a source of water, which must be balanced by a flux divergence associated with other transport processes. In a relatively humid environment the liquid fluxes greatly exceed the thermal vapor fluxes, so such a balance is readily achieved without measurable effect on the dynamics of water in the unsaturated zone. However, if the mean vertical water flux through the unsaturated zone is very small (<1 mm y−1), as it may be at many locations in a desert landscape, the thermal vapor flux must be balanced mostly by a matric‐potential‐induced upward flux of water. This return flux may include both vapor and liquid components. Below any near‐surface zone of weather‐related fluctuations of matric potential, maintenance of this upward flux requires an increase with depth in the annual mean matric potential; this theoretical prediction is supported by long‐term field measurements in the Chihuahuan Desert. The analysis also makes predictions, confirmed by the field observations, regarding the seasonal variations of matric potential at a given depth. The conceptual model of unsaturated zone water transport developed here implies the possibility of near‐surface trapping of any aqueous constituent introduced at the surface.

Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Forest Extent on Annual and Seasonal Surface Temperatures for the Continental United States

EPA Science Inventory

Most scenario‐based climate modeling studies indicate that replacing temperate forest with cropland will promote cooling by reducing surface air temperatures. These results are inconsistent with fieldbased microclimate studies that have found that forests are cooler, wetter, and...

Quantifying the impact of human activity on temperatures in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benz, Susanne A.; Bayer, Peter; Blum, Philipp

2017-04-01

Human activity directly influences ambient air, surface and groundwater temperatures. Alterations of surface cover and land use influence the ambient thermal regime causing spatial temperature anomalies, most commonly heat islands. These local temperature anomalies are primarily described within the bounds of large and densely populated urban settlements, where they form so-called urban heat islands (UHI). This study explores the anthropogenic impact not only for selected cities, but for the thermal regime on a countrywide scale, by analyzing mean annual temperature datasets in Germany in three different compartments: measured surface air temperature (SAT), measured groundwater temperature (GWT), and satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST). As a universal parameter to quantify anthropogenic heat anomalies, the anthropogenic heat intensity (AHI) is introduced. It is closely related to the urban heat island intensity, but determined for each pixel (for satellite-derived LST) or measurement point (for SAT and GWT) of a large, even global, dataset individually, regardless of land use and location. Hence, it provides the unique opportunity to a) compare the anthropogenic impact on temperatures in air, surface and subsurface, b) to find main instances of anthropogenic temperature anomalies within the study area, in this case Germany, and c) to study the impact of smaller settlements or industrial sites on temperatures. For all three analyzed temperature datasets, anthropogenic heat intensity grows with increasing nighttime lights and declines with increasing vegetation, whereas population density has only minor effects. While surface anthropogenic heat intensity cannot be linked to specific land cover types in the studied resolution (1 km × 1 km) and classification system, both air and groundwater show increased heat intensities for artificial surfaces. Overall, groundwater temperature appears most vulnerable to human activity; unlike land surface temperature and surface air temperature, groundwater temperatures are elevated in cultivated areas as well. At the surface of Germany, the highest anthropogenic heat intensity with 4.5 K is found at an open-pit lignite mine near Jülich, followed by three large cities (Munich, Düsseldorf and Nuremberg) with annual mean anthropogenic heat intensities > 4 K. Overall, surface anthropogenic heat intensities > 0 K and therefore urban heat islands are observed in communities down to a population of 5,000.

75 FR 1745 - Fisheries Off West Coast States; Coastal Pelagic Species Fisheries; Annual Specifications

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-13

... temperatures; a higher fraction for warmer ocean temperatures and a lower fraction for cooler temperatures. Warmer ocean temperatures favor the production of Pacific sardine. For 2010, the fraction used was 15 percent, based on three seasons of sea surface temperature at Scripps Pier, California. Classification...

Can uncertainties in sea ice albedo reconcile patterns of data-model discord for the Pliocene and 20th/21st centuries?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Francis, Jane E; Hill, Daniel J.; Pickering, Steven J.; Pope, James O.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Wade, Bidget S

2014-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) currently underestimate the level of warming that proxy data suggest existed at high latitudes, with discrepancies of up to 11°C for sea surface temperature estimates and 17°C for surface air temperature estimates. Sea ice has a strong influence on high-latitude climates, partly due to the albedo feedback. We present results demonstrating the effects of reductions in minimum sea ice albedo limits in general circulation model simulations of the mPWP. While mean annual surface air temperature increases of up to 6°C are observed in the Arctic, the maximum decrease in model-data discrepancies is just 0.81°C. Mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by up to 2°C, with a maximum model-data discrepancy improvement of 1.31°C. It is also suggested that the simulation of observed 21st century sea ice decline could be influenced by the adjustment of the sea ice albedo parameterization.

An overview of mainland China temperature change research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Guoyu; Ding, Yihui; Tang, Guoli

2017-02-01

There has been significant effort devoted to investigating long-term trends in land surface air temperature over mainland China by Chinese scientists over the past 50 years, and much progress has been made in understanding dynamics of the changes. This review highlights research conducted by early Chinese climatologists, and particularly Professor Shaowu Wang from Peking University, with special focus on systematic work that has been conducted since the mid to late 1970s. We also discuss major issues that remain unresolved in past and current studies. The most recent analyses indicate that the country-average annual mean surface air temperature rose by 1.12°C over the past 115 years (1901-2015), with a rate of increase of about 0.10°C decade-1. Temperatures have risen more rapidly since the 1950s, with the rate of increase of more than 0.25°C decade-1. However, the recent increase in temperatures is in large part due to contamination by systematically biased data. These data are influenced by unprecedented urbanization in China, with a contribution of urbanization to the overall increase of annual mean temperatures in mainland China of about one third over the past half a century. If the bias is corrected, the rate of increase for the country-average annual mean surface air temperature is 0.17°C decade-1 over the last 50-60 years, which is approximately the same as global and Northern Hemispheric averages in recent decades. Future efforts should be focused towards the recovery and digitization of early-year observational records, the homogenization of observational data, the evaluation and adjustment of urbanization bias in temperature data series from urban stations, the analysis of extreme temperatures over longer periods including the first half of the 20th century, and the investigation of the observed surface air temperature change mechanisms in mainland China.

Predictability of Ice Concentration in the High-Latitude North Atlantic from Statistical Analysis of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and Ice Concentration Data.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-09-01

Nautical- Metorological Annuals (Yearbooks), Charlottenlund, Copenhagen. Jokill, 1953-67: Reports of sea ice off the Icelandic coasts (Annual reports...Proceeding of 7th annual climate diagnostic workshop (NOAA) pub. Washington, D.C., 189-195. * Weeks, W. F., 1978: Sea ice conditions in the Arctic. In

Secular Trend of Surface Temperature at an Elevated Observatory in the Pyrenees.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bücher, A.; Dessens, J.

1991-08-01

Surface temperature was measured at the Pic du Midi de Bigorre, 2862 m MSL, from the foundation of the Observatory in 1878 until the closing of the meteorological station in 1984. After testing the homogeneity of the series with the annual mean temperatures in western Europe and in southwestern France, the period 1882-1970 was retained for trend analysis.The mean annual temperature increased 0.83°C during the 89-yr period. This increase is the sum of a very significant increase in the daily minimum temperature (+ 2.11°C) and a decrease in the maximum temperature ( 0.45°C). In consequence, the most dramatic change in the temperature regime was the difference between maximum and minimum; this decreased from 8.05°C in 1882 to 5.49°C in 1970. A mean increase is observed in all seasons, but, as for western Europe, it is stronger in spring and fall than in winter and summer.Analysis of cloudiness data for the same period shows a 15% increase in annual mean cloudiness and also significant year-to-year correlations between cloudiness and the maximum and minimum temperature. In consequence, the change in the temperature regime observed at the Pic du Midi since the end of last century is most probably the result of a climatic change involving an increase in cloud cover and, maybe, an increasing greenhouse effect.

Global Surface Temperature Anomalies and Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrafesa, L. J.

2017-12-01

We study Non-Stationary, Non-Linear time series of global surface temperatures from 1850 to 2016, and via an empirical, mathematical methodology, we reveal the buried, internal modes of variability of planetary temperatures over the past 167 years, and find periods of cooling and warming, both in the ocean and the atmosphere over land, with multiple modes of variability; seasonal, annual, inter-annual, multi-year, decadal, multi-decadal, centennial and overall warming trends in the ocean, atmosphere and the combination therein. The oceanic rate of warming is less than two thirds of that of the atmosphere. While our findings on overall trends of fossil fuel burning and planetary temperatures are only visually correlative, by employing a mathematical methodology well known in ergonomics, this study causally links the upward rise in planetary surface temperature from the latter part of the 19th Century and into the 21st Century, to the contemporaneous upward rise in fossil fuel burning and suggests that if present fossil fuel burning is not curtailed there will be continued warming of the planet in the future.

Spatial distribution of temperature trends and extremes over Maharashtra and Karnataka States of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhorde, Amit G.; Korade, Mahendra S.; Dhorde, Anargha A.

2017-10-01

Earth surface temperatures are changing worldwide together with the changes in the extreme temperatures. The present study investigates trends and variations of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and their effects on seasonal fluctuations at different climatological stations of Maharashtra and Karnataka states of India. Trend analysis was performed on annual and seasonal mean maximum temperature (TMAX) and mean minimum temperature (TMIN) for the period 1969 to 2006. During the last 38 years, an increase in annual TMAX and TMIN has occurred. At most of the locations, the increase in TMAX was faster than the TMIN, resulting in an increase in diurnal temperature range. At the same time, annual mean temperature (TM) showed a significant increase over the study area. Percentiles were used to identify extreme temperature indices. An increase in occurrence of warm extremes was observed at southern locations, and cold extremes increased over the central and northeastern part of the study area. Occurrences of cold wave conditions have decreased rapidly compared to heat wave conditions.

The magnitude and variability of soil-surface CO2 efflux increase with temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests

Treesearch

Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Jeremy K. Albano; Michael S. Long; Gregory P. Asner

2011-01-01

Soil-surface CO2 efflux (FS; ‘soil respiration’) accounts for 50% of the CO2 released annually by the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, and the magnitude and variability of this flux are likely to be sensitive to climate change. We measured FS in nine permanent plots along a 5.2C mean annual...

Ocean Color and the Equatorial Annual Cycle in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammann, A. C.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2012-12-01

The presence of chlorophyll, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and other scatterers in ocean surface waters affect the flux divergence of solar radiation and thus the vertical distribution of radiant heating of the ocean. While this may directly alter the local mixed-layer depth and temperature (Martin 1985; Strutton & Chavez 2004), non-local changes are propagated through advection (Manizza et al. 2005; Murtugudde et al. 2002; Nakamoto et al. 2001; Sweeny et al. 2005). In and coupled feedbacks (Lengaigne et al. 2007; Marzeion & Timmermann 2005). Anderson et al. (2007), Anderson et al. (2009) and Gnanadesikan & Anderson (2009) have performed a series of experiments with a fully coupled climate model which parameterizes the e-folding depth of solar irradiance in terms of surface chlorophyll-a concentration. The results have so far been discussed with respect to the climatic mean state and ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific. We extend the discussion here to the Pacific equatorial annual cycle. The focus of the coupled experiments has been the sensitivity of the coupled system to regional differences in chlorophyll concentration. While runs have been completed with realistic SeaWiFS-derived monthly composite chlorophyll ('green') and with a globally chlorophyll-free ocean ('blue'), the concentrations in two additional runs have been selectively set to zero in specific regions: the oligotrophic subtropical gyres ('gyre') in one case and the mesotrophic gyre margins ('margin') in the other. The annual cycle of ocean temperatures exhibits distinctly reduced amplitudes in the 'blue' and 'margin' experiments, and a slight reduction in 'gyre' (while ENSO variability almost vanishes in 'blue' and 'gyre', but amplifies in 'margin' - thus the frequently quoted inverse correlation between ENSO and annual amplitudes holds only for the 'green' / 'margin' comparison). It is well-known that on annual time scales, the anomalous divergence of surface currents and vertical upwelling acting on a mean temperature field contribute the largest term to SST variability (Köberle & Philander 1994; Li & Philander 1996). We examine whether it is changes in the surface currents (driven by the annual cycle of winds) or changes in the mean temperature fields (driven by enhanced penetration of solar radiation) that drive the differences between the coupled models. We do this using a simple linear equatorial-wave model, which, when forced with an annual harmonic of wind stresses, reproduces the essential characteristics of annual ocean current anomalies. The model solves the linearized Boussinesq equations by expansion into discrete modes in all spatial dimensions (McCreary 1981; Lighthill 1969). Both the wind forcing and the (laterally homogeneous) background density profile are constructed as approximations to the coupled model fields. The annual perturbation currents from the wave model are then used to advect the mean temperature fields from the coupled model experiments. While the difference in the mean stratification explains the difference between the 'green' and 'blue' cases. For the other two cases, it appears that changes in the annual wind fields need also be taken into account. An initial hypothesis is that the hemispheric asymmetry in the annual amplitude of wind stress curl that is most important in setting the amplitude of the annual cycle on the equator.

Ground-Water Temperature Data, Nevada Test Site and Vicinity, Nye, Clark, and Lincoln Counties, Nevada, 2000-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reiner, Steven R.

2007-01-01

Ground-water temperature data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in wells at and in the vicinity of the Nevada Test Site during the years 2000-2006. Periodic ground-water temperatures were collected in 166 wells. In general, periodic ground-water temperatures were measured annually in each well at 5 and 55 feet below the water surface. Ground-water temperature profiles were collected in 73 wells. Temperatures were measured at multiple depths below the water surface to produce these profiles. Databases were constructed to present the ground-water temperature data.

Ground-Water Temperature Data, Nevada Test Site and Vicinity, Nye, Clark, and Lincoln Counties, Nevada, 2000-2006.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steven R. Reiner

2007-08-07

Ground-water temperature data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in wells at and in the vicinity of the Nevada Test Site during the years 2000–2006. Periodic ground-water temperatures were collected in 166 wells. In general, periodic ground-water temperatures were measured annually in each well at 5 and 55 feet below the water surface. Ground-water temperature profiles were collected in 73 wells. Temperatures were measured at multiple depths below the water surface to produce these profiles. Databases were constructed to present the ground-water temperature data.

Impact of fire on global land surface air temperature and energy budget for the 20th century due to changes within ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2017-04-01

Fire is a global phenomenon and tightly interacts with the biosphere and climate. This study provides the first quantitative assessment and understanding of fire’s influence on the global annual land surface air temperature and energy budget through its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. Fire impacts are quantified by comparing fire-on and fire-off simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show that, for the 20th century average, fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems significantly increase global land annual mean surface air temperature by 0.18 °C, decrease surface net radiation and latent heat flux by 1.08 W m-2 and 0.99 W m-2, respectively, and have limited influence on sensible heat flux (-0.11 W m-2) and ground heat flux (+0.02 W m-2). Fire impacts are most clearly seen in the tropical savannas. Our analyses suggest that fire increases surface air temperature predominantly by reducing latent heat flux, mainly due to fire-induced damage to the vegetation canopy, and decreases net radiation primarily because fire-induced surface warming significantly increases upward surface longwave radiation. This study provides an integrated estimate of fire and induced changes in ecosystems, climate, and energy budget at a global scale, and emphasizes the importance of a consistent and integrated understanding of fire effects.

Comparison of Near-Surface Air Temperatures and MODIS Ice-Surface Temperatures at Summit, Greenland (2008-2013)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shuman, Christopher A.; Hall, Dorothy K.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Mefford, Thomas K.; Schnaubelt, Michael J.

2014-01-01

We have investigated the stability of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared-derived ice surface temperature (IST) data from Terra for use as a climate quality data record. The availability of climate quality air temperature data (TA) from a NOAA Global Monitoring Division observatory at Greenlands Summit station has enabled this high temporal resolution study of MODIS ISTs. During a 5 year period (July 2008 to August 2013), more than 2500 IST values were compared with 3-minute average TA values derived from the 1-minute data from NOAAs primary 2 m air temperature sensor. These data enabled an expected small offset between air and surface temperatures at this the ice sheet location to be investigated over multiple annual cycles.

The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress in a model simulation of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacfic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Dake; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Rothstein, Lewis M.

1994-01-01

The climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific is simulated using a newly developed upper ocean model. The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress are investigated in a hierarchy of numerical experiments with various combinations of vertical mixing algorithms and surface-forcing products. It is found that the large SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific is, to a large extent, controlled by the annually varying mixed layer depth which, in turn, is mainly determined by the competing effects of solar radiation and wind forcing. With the application of our hybrid vertical mixing scheme the model-simulated SST annual cycle is much improved in both amplitude and phase as compared to the case of a constant mixed layer depth. Beside the strong effects on vertical mixing, solar radiation is the primary heating term in the surface layer heat budget, and wind forcing influences SST by driving oceanic advective processes that redistribute heat in the upper ocean. For example, the SST seasonal cycle in the western Pacific basically follows the semiannual variation of solar heating, and the cycle in the central equatorial region is significantly affected by the zonal advective heat flux associated with the seasonally reversing South Equatorial Current. It has been shown in our experiments that the amount of heat flux modification needed to eliminate the annual mean SST errors in the model is, on average, no larger than the annual mean uncertainties among the various surface flux products used in this study. Whereas a bias correction is needed to account for remaining uncertainties in the annual mean heat flux, this study demonstrates that with proper treatment of mixed layer physics and realistic forcing functions the seasonal variability of SST is capable of being simulated successfully in response to external forcing without relying on a relaxation or damping formulation for the dominant surface heat flux contributions.

Sea surface temperature 1871-2099 in 14 cells around the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Sheppard, Charles

2004-07-01

Monthly sea surface temperature is provided for 14 locations around the UK for a 230 year period. These series are derived from the HadISST1 data set for historical time (1871-1999) and from the HadCM3 climate model for predicted SST (1950-2099). Two adjustments of the forecast data sets are needed to produce confluent SST series: the 50 year overlap is used for a gross adjustment, and a statistical scaling on the forecast data ensures that annual variations in forecast data match those of historical data. These monthly SST series are available on request. The overall rise in SST over time is clear for all sites, commencing in the last quarter of the 20th century. Apart from expected trends of overall warmer mean SST with more southerly latitudes and overall cooler mean SST towards the East, more interesting statistically significant general trends include a greater decadal rate of rise from warmer starting conditions. Annual temperature variation is not affected by absolute temperature, but is markedly greater towards the East. There is no correlation of annual range of SST with latitude, or with present SST values.

Monitoring the Spread of West Nile Virus with Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

A NASA-funded study uses temperature and vegetation data from satellites to help track and predict where West Nile virus is spreading in North America. Scientists and public health officials hope one day to use near real-time maps to focus resources and stave off the disease more efficiently. This image is a composite of land surface temperatures (LST) recorded between 1997 and 2000 and was used to help monitor and predict the spread of West Nile virus in the United States. In the color figure above, the mean land surface temperatures are in red; annual amplitude-or the difference between low and high annual temperatures-is in blue; and annual phase-or the timing of annual temperature peaks-appears in green. Brighter colors mean higher values. The major north-south temperature difference (dull red in the upper part of the image to bright red in the lower part) is considerably affected by the Rockies in the west and to a much lesser extent by the Appalachians in the east. The brighter blue in the upper part of the image indicates the big difference between highest and lowest temperatures during the course of a year at higher latitudes. There is less variation in the timing of the annual peak of land surface temperatures, which occurs earlier in the south than in the north. Black dots superimposed on this image are the locations (county geo-centers) where birds infected with West Nile virus were reported between January and October 2001. Scientists working with the International Research Partnership for Infectious Diseases (INTREPID) program based at NASA are using such imagery to define and predict the conditions where mosquitoes transmit West Nile virus in the U.S. The conclusion reached about the importance of any single variable depends both upon its value and context. A temperature of 30o Celsius (86o Fahrenheit) might be fatal for a mosquito at low humidity but survivable at higher humidities. The work done here on West Nile virus and other diseases shows very clearly that it is a unique combination of temperature, humidity, and vegetation variables that tends to determine mosquito and disease presence and abundance. For more information read: Satellites vs. Mosquitoes: Tracking West Nile Virus in the U.S. The image was produced by INTREPID from data taken by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument.

Thermal regime of warm-dry permafrost in relation to ground surface temperature in the Source Areas of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, SW China.

PubMed

Luo, Dongliang; Jin, Huijun; Wu, Qingbai; Bense, Victor F; He, Ruixia; Ma, Qiang; Gao, Shuhui; Jin, Xiaoying; Lü, Lanzhi

2018-03-15

Ecology, hydrology, and natural resources in the source areas of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers (SAYYR) are closely linked to interactions between climate and permafrost. However, a comprehensive study of the interactions is currently hampered by sparsely- and unevenly-distributed monitoring sites and limited field investigations. In this study, the thermal regime of warm-dry permafrost in the SAYYR was systematically analyzed based on extensive data collected during 2010-2016 of air temperature (T a ), ground surface temperature (GST) and ground temperature across a range of areas with contrasting land-surface characteristics. Mean annual T a (MAAT) and mean annual GST (MAGST) were regionally averaged at -3.19±0.71°C and -0.40±1.26°C. There is a close relationship between GST and T a (R 2 =0.8477) as obtained by a linear regression analysis with all available daily averages. The mean annual temperature at the bottom of the active layer (T TOP ) was regionally averaged at -0.72±1.01°C and mostly in the range of -1.0°C and 0°C except at Chalaping (~-2.0°C). Surface offset (MAGST-MAAT) was regionally averaged at 2.54±0.71°C. Thermal offset (T TOP -MAGST) was regionally averaged at -0.17±0.84°C, which was generally within -0.5°C and 0.5°C. Relatively consistent thermal conductivity between the thawed and frozen states of the soils may be responsible for the small thermal offset. Active layer thickness was generally smaller at Chalaping than that on other parts of the QTP, presumably due to smaller climatic continentality index and the thermal dampening of surface temperature variability under the presence of dense vegetation and thick peaty substrates. We conclude that the accurate mapping of permafrost on the rugged elevational QTP could be potentially obtained by correlating the parameters of GST, thermal offset, and temperature gradient in the shallow permafrost. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiative forcing and climate response due to the presence of black carbon in cloud droplets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Zhang, Hua; Li, Jiangnan; Jing, Xianwen; Lu, Peng

2013-05-01

Optical properties of clouds containing black carbon (BC) particles in their water droplets are calculated by using the Maxwell Garnett mixing rule and Mie theory. The obtained cloud optical properties were then applied to an interactive system by coupling an aerosol model with a General Circulation Model. This system is used to investigate the radiative forcing and the equilibrium climate response due to BC in cloud droplets. The simulated global annual mean radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere due to the BC in cloud droplets is found to be 0.086 W m-2. Positive radiative forcing can be seen in Africa, South America, East and South Asia, and West Europe, with a maximum value of 1.5 W m-2 being observed in these regions. The enhanced cloud absorption is shown to increase the global annual mean values of solar heating rate, water vapor, and temperature, but to decrease the global annual mean cloud fraction. Finally, the global annual mean surface temperature is shown to increase by +0.08 K. The local maximum changes are found to be as low as -1.5 K and as high as +0.6 K. We show there has been a significant difference in surface temperature change in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere (+0.19 K and -0.04 K, respectively). Our results show that this interhemispheric asymmetry in surface temperature change could cause a corresponding change in atmospheric dynamics and precipitation. It is also found that the northern trade winds are enhanced in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This results in northerly surface wind anomalies which cross the equator to converge with the enhanced southern trade winds in the tropics of Southern Hemisphere. This is shown to lead to an increase (a decrease) of vertical ascending motion and precipitation on the south (north) side of the equator, which could induce a southward shift in the tropical rainfall maximum related to the ITCZ.

Radiative forcing and climate response due to the presence of black carbon in cloud droplets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Zhang, H.; Li, J.; Jing, X.; Lu, P.

2013-05-01

Optical properties of clouds containing black carbon (BC) particles in their water droplets are calculated by using the Maxwell Garnett mixing rule and Mie theory. The obtained cloud optical properties were then applied to an interactive system by coupling an aerosol model with a General Circulation Model. This system is used to investigate the radiative forcing and the equilibrium climate response due to BC in cloud droplets. The simulated global annual mean radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere due to the BC in cloud droplets is found to be 0.086 W m-2. Positive radiative forcing can be seen in Africa, South America, East and South Asia and West Europe, with a maximum value of 1.5 W m-2 being observed in these regions. The enhanced cloud absorption is shown to increase the global annual mean values of solar heating rate, water vapor and temperature, but to decrease the global annual mean cloud fraction. Finally, the global annual mean surface temperature is shown to increase by +0.08 K. The local maximum changes are found to be as low as -1.5 K and as high as +0.6 K. We show there has been a significant difference in surface temperature change in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere (+0.19 K and -0.04 K, respectively). Our results show that this interhemispheric asymmetry in surface temperature change could cause a corresponding change in atmospheric dynamics and precipitation. It is also found that the northern trade winds are enhanced in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This results in northerly surface wind anomalies which cross the equator to converge with the enhanced southern trade winds in the tropics of Southern Hemisphere. This is shown to lead to an increase (a decrease) of vertical ascending motion and precipitation on the south (north) side of the equator, which could induce a southward shift in the tropical rainfall maximum related to the ITCZ.

Global and Hemispheric Annual Temperature Variations Between 1854 and 1991 (revised 1994) (NDP-022)

DOE Data Explorer

Jones, P. D. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Wigley, T. M. L. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Wright, P. B. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom

1994-01-01

This data set contains estimates of global and hemispheric annual temperature variations, relative to a 1950 through 1979 reference period, for 1861 through 1991. The estimates are based on corrected land and ocean data. Land data were derived from meteorological data and fixed-position weather-ship data that were corrected for nonclimatic errors, such as station shifts and/or instrument changes. The marine data used were those in the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) compilation, which with updates covers to 1986. Updates to 1991 were made with hemispheric sea-surface temperature estimates produced by the U.K. Meteorological Office. Each record includes year and six annual temperature variations: one estimate each for the globe, the Northern Hemisphere, and the Southern Hemisphere and another estimate each that reflects an adjustment to account for the influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation events. The data are in one file of 13 kB.

Simulation and observations of annual density banding in skeletons of Montastraea (Cnidaria: Scleractinia) growing under thermal stress associated with ocean warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Worum, F.P.; Carricart-Ganivet, J. P.; Benson, L.; Golicher, D.

2007-01-01

We present a model of annual density banding in skeletons of Montastraea coral species growing under thermal stress associated with an ocean-warming scenario. The model predicts that at sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) <29??C, high-density bands (HDBs) are formed during the warmest months of the year. As temperature rises and oscillates around the optimal calcification temperature, an annual doublet in the HDB (dHDB) occurs that consists of two narrow HDBs. The presence of such dHDBs in skeletons of Montastraea species is a clear indication of thermal stress. When all monthly SSTs exceed the optimal calcification temperature, HDBs form during the coldest, not the warmest, months of the year. In addition, a decline in mean-annual calcification rate also occurs during this period of elevated SST. A comparison of our model results with annual density patterns observed in skeletons of M. faveolata and M. franksi, collected from several localities in the Mexican Caribbean, indicates that elevated SSTs are already resulting in the presence of dHDBs as a first sign of thermal stress, which occurs even without coral bleaching. ?? 2007, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

The Impact of Sea Ice Concentration Accuracies on Climate Model Simulations with the GISS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Rind, David; Healy, Richard J.; Martinson, Douglas G.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated climate to sea ice concentration specifications in the type of simulation done in the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP), with specified oceanic boundary conditions. Results show that sea ice concentration uncertainties of +/- 7% can affect simulated regional temperatures by more than 6 C, and biases in sea ice concentrations of +7% and -7% alter simulated annually averaged global surface air temperatures by -0.10 C and +0.17 C, respectively, over those in the control simulation. The resulting 0.27 C difference in simulated annual global surface air temperatures is reduced by a third, to 0.18 C, when considering instead biases of +4% and -4%. More broadly, least-squares fits through the temperature results of 17 simulations with ice concentration input changes ranging from increases of 50% versus the control simulation to decreases of 50% yield a yearly average global impact of 0.0107 C warming for every 1% ice concentration decrease, i.e., 1.07 C warming for the full +50% to -50% range. Regionally and on a monthly average basis, the differences can be far greater, especially in the polar regions, where wintertime contrasts between the +50% and -50% cases can exceed 30 C. However, few statistically significant effects are found outside the polar latitudes, and temperature effects over the non-polar oceans tend to be under 1 C, due in part to the specification of an unvarying annual cycle of sea surface temperatures. The +/- 7% and 14% results provide bounds on the impact (on GISS GCM simulations making use of satellite data) of satellite-derived ice concentration inaccuracies, +/- 7% being the current estimated average accuracy of satellite retrievals and +/- 4% being the anticipated improved average accuracy for upcoming satellite instruments. Results show that the impact on simulated temperatures of imposed ice concentration changes is least in summer, encouragingly the same season in which the satellite accuracies are thought to be worst. Hence the impact of satellite inaccuracies is probably less than the use of an annually averaged satellite inaccuracy would suggest.

Clear-Sky Longwave Irradiance at the Earth's Surface--Evaluation of Climate Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.

2001-04-01

An evaluation of the clear-sky longwave irradiance at the earth's surface (LI) simulated in climate models and in satellite-based global datasets is presented. Algorithm-based estimates of LI, derived from global observations of column water vapor and surface (or screen air) temperature, serve as proxy `observations.' All datasets capture the broad zonal variation and seasonal behavior in LI, mainly because the behavior in column water vapor and temperature is reproduced well. Over oceans, the dependence of annual and monthly mean irradiance upon sea surface temperature (SST) closely resembles the observed behavior of column water with SST. In particular, the observed hemispheric difference in the summer minus winter column water dependence on SST is found in all models, though with varying seasonal amplitudes. The analogous behavior in the summer minus winter LI is seen in all datasets. Over land, all models have a more highly scattered dependence of LI upon surface temperature compared with the situation over the oceans. This is related to a much weaker dependence of model column water on the screen-air temperature at both monthly and annual timescales, as observed. The ability of climate models to simulate realistic LI fields depends as much on the quality of model water vapor and temperature fields as on the quality of the longwave radiation codes. In a comparison of models with observations, root-mean-square gridpoint differences in mean monthly column water and temperature are 4-6 mm (5-8 mm) and 0.5-2 K (3-4 K), respectively, over large regions of ocean (land), consistent with the intermodel differences in LI of 5-13 W m2 (15-28 W m2).

Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Yogesh C.; Lau, William K. M.; Walker, G. K.; Mehta, V. M.

2001-01-01

Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern Hemisphere at mid and high latitudes also get strongly influenced by the annual cycles of solar heating. The SST influence is largely limited to the oceanic regions of these latitudes; (3) The annual mode of precipitation over Amazonia has an equatorial regime revealing a maxima in the month of March associated with SST, and another maxima in the month of January associated with the solar annual cycles, respectively. The baseline simulation, which has both annual cycles, depicts both annual modes and its rainfall is virtually equal to the sum of those two modes; (4) Rainfall over Sahelian-Africa is significantly reduced (increased) in simulations lacking (invoking) solar irradiation with (without) the annual cycle. In fact, the dominant influence of solar irradiation emerges in almost all monsoonal-land regions: India, Southeast Asia, as well as Australia. The only exception is the Continental United States, where solar annual cycle shows only a relatively minor influence on the annual mode of rainfall.

Warming trends of perialpine lakes from homogenised time series of historical satellite and in-situ data.

PubMed

Pareeth, Sajid; Bresciani, Mariano; Buzzi, Fabio; Leoni, Barbara; Lepori, Fabio; Ludovisi, Alessandro; Morabito, Giuseppe; Adrian, Rita; Neteler, Markus; Salmaso, Nico

2017-02-01

The availability of more than thirty years of historical satellite data is a valuable source which could be used as an alternative to the sparse in-situ data. We developed a new homogenised time series of daily day time Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT) over the last thirty years (1986-2015) at a spatial resolution of 1km from thirteen polar orbiting satellites. The new homogenisation procedure implemented in this study corrects for the different acquisition times of the satellites standardizing the derived LSWT to 12:00 UTC. In this study, we developed new time series of LSWT for five large lakes in Italy and evaluated the product with in-situ data from the respective lakes. Furthermore, we estimated the long-term annual and summer trends, the temporal coherence of mean LSWT between the lakes, and studied the intra-annual variations and long-term trends from the newly developed LSWT time series. We found a regional warming trend at a rate of 0.017°Cyr -1 annually and 0.032°Cyr -1 during summer. Mean annual and summer LSWT temporal patterns in these lakes were found to be highly coherent. Amidst the reported rapid warming of lakes globally, it is important to understand the long-term variations of surface temperature at a regional scale. This study contributes a new method to derive long-term accurate LSWT for lakes with sparse in-situ data thereby facilitating understanding of regional level changes in lake's surface temperature. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonally frozen layer in natural and drained peatlands at the South of West Siberia, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyukarev, Egor; Kiselev, Maxim; Voropay, Nadezhda; Preis, Yulia

2017-04-01

The temperature regime of soils in natural and drained peatlands at Bakchar bog located in the South Taiga zone of West Siberia is studied. Soil temperature for depths up to 320 cm was registered using autonomous temperature profile recorder during the period from August 2010 to September 2016. Maximal and minimal temperatures were registered at surface in July and February, consequently. Extreme soil temperatures at 320 cm depth shifts to December (maximum) and July (minimum) reducing absolute values. Annual peat soil temperature amplitude decrease with depth from 21,8 °C on surface to 1,1 °C at 320 cm. The analysis of daily, month and annual mean data of temperature in peat soil has shown that seasonally frozen layer was registered up to 20-60 cm depth. The duration of seasonally freeze layer existence varies from 130 to 180 days. Drained peatlands with the lowest water table have highest freeze depth. Soil at water-logged sedge-sphagnum fen in winter is warmer than soil in ryam ecosystem and mineral soil at upland. Maximal freezing depth in peatlands is up to 3 times lower than at drain areas.

The annual and interannual variabilities of precipitable water, surface wind speed, and sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy

1989-01-01

The Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SSMR) provided simultaneous measurements of three geophysical parameters, each of which describing a certain aspect of the evolution of the 1982-1983 ENSO: the sea-surface temperature (T), precipitable water (W), and surface-wind speed (U). In this paper, values derived from the SSMR were compared with in situ measurements from ships, research buoys, and operational island stations in the tropical Pacific between January 1980 and October 1983, demonstrating the temporal and spatial coherence of the SSMR measurements. The results show that the variabilities of the surface convergence, sea surface temperature, and precipitable water are related. It was found that W anomalies were not always colocated with T anomalies, and that W anomalies were often associated with negative U anomalies, interpreted as surface convergence.

An atlas of monthly mean distributions of GEOSAT sea surface height, SSMI surface wind speed, AVHRR/2 sea surface temperature, and ECMWF surface wind components during 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Zlotnicki, V.; Newman, J.; Brown, O.; Wentz, F.

1991-01-01

Monthly mean global distributions for 1988 are presented with a common color scale and geographical map. Distributions are included for sea surface height variation estimated from GEOSAT; surface wind speed estimated from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft; sea surface temperature estimated from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on NOAA spacecrafts; and the Cartesian components of the 10m height wind vector computed by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. Charts of monthly mean value, sampling distribution, and standard deviation value are displayed. Annual mean distributions are displayed.

Assessment of radiative feedback in climate models using satellite observations of annual flux variation.

PubMed

Tsushima, Yoko; Manabe, Syukuro

2013-05-07

In the climate system, two types of radiative feedback are in operation. The feedback of the first kind involves the radiative damping of the vertically uniform temperature perturbation of the troposphere and Earth's surface that approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann law of blackbody radiation. The second kind involves the change in the vertical lapse rate of temperature, water vapor, and clouds in the troposphere and albedo of the Earth's surface. Using satellite observations of the annual variation of the outgoing flux of longwave radiation and that of reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, this study estimates the so-called "gain factor," which characterizes the strength of radiative feedback of the second kind that operates on the annually varying, global-scale perturbation of temperature at the Earth's surface. The gain factor is computed not only for all sky but also for clear sky. The gain factor of so-called "cloud radiative forcing" is then computed as the difference between the two. The gain factors thus obtained are compared with those obtained from 35 models that were used for the fourth and fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Here, we show that the gain factors obtained from satellite observations of cloud radiative forcing are effective for identifying systematic biases of the feedback processes that control the sensitivity of simulated climate, providing useful information for validating and improving a climate model.

Temperature of ground water at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 1979- 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paulachok, Gary N.

1986-01-01

Anthropogenic heat production has undoubtedly caused increased ground-water temperatures in many parts of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, as shown by temperatures of 98 samples and logs of 40 wells measured during 1979-81. Most sample temperatures were higher than 12.6 degrees Celsius (the local mean annual air temperature), and many logs depict cooling trends with depth (anomalous gradients). Heating of surface and shallow-subsurface materials has likely caused the elevated temperatures and anomalous gradients. Solar radiation on widespread concrete and asphalt surfaces, fossil-fuel combustion, and radiant losses from buried pipelines containing steam and process chemicals are believed to be the chief sources of heat. Some heat from these and other sources is transferred to deeper zones, mainly by conduction. Temperatures in densely urbanized areas are commonly highest directly beneath the land surface and decrease progressively with depth. Temperatures in sparsely urbanized areas generally follow the natural geothermal gradient and increase downward at about that same rate.

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Recent Climate Changes in Northwestern Qaidam Basin Inferred from Geothermal Gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Zhang, T.

2014-12-01

Temperature perturbations under the ground surface are direct thermal response to ground surface temperature changes. Thus ground surface temperature history can be reconstructed from borehole temperature measurements using borehole paleothermometry inversion method. In this study, we use seven borehole temperature profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature variation of the past 500 years of the Qaidam basin, northwestern China. Borehole transient temperature measurement from seven sites in northwestern Qaidam basin were separated from geothermal gradients and analyzed by functional space inversion method to determine past ground surface temperature variations in this region. All temperature profiles show the effects of recent climatic disturbances. Inversion shows an overall increase in ground surface temperature by an averaged 1.2℃ (-0.11~2.21℃) during the last 500 years. Clear signs of a cold period between 1500 and 1900 A.D., corresponding to the Little Ice Age, have been found. Its coldest period was between 1780~1790 A.D. with the ground surface temperature of 5.4℃. During the 19th and the 20th century, reconstructed ground surface temperature shows a rising trend, and in the late 20th century, the temperature started to decrease. However, the highest temperature in 1990s broke the record of the past 500 years. This reconstructed past ground surface temperature variation is verified by the simulated annual surface air temperature computed by EdGCM and the cooling trend is also confirmed by other reconstruction of winter half year minimum temperatures using tree rings on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Multiscale combination of climate model simulations and proxy records over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Nie, Suping; Zhao, Zongci; Huang, Jianbin; Tian, Qinhua

2018-05-01

To highlight the compatibility of climate model simulation and proxy reconstruction at different timescales, a timescale separation merging method combining proxy records and climate model simulations is presented. Annual mean surface temperature anomalies for the last millennium (851-2005 AD) at various scales over the land of the Northern Hemisphere were reconstructed with 2° × 2° spatial resolution, using an optimal interpolation (OI) algorithm. All target series were decomposed using an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method followed by power spectral analysis. Four typical components were obtained at inter-annual, decadal, multidecadal, and centennial timescales. A total of 323 temperature-sensitive proxy chronologies were incorporated after screening for each component. By scaling the proxy components using variance matching and applying a localized OI algorithm to all four components point by point, we obtained merged surface temperatures. Independent validation indicates that the most significant improvement was for components at the inter-annual scale, but this became less evident with increasing timescales. In mid-latitude land areas, 10-30% of grids were significantly corrected at the inter-annual scale. By assimilating the proxy records, the merged results reduced the gap in response to volcanic forcing between a pure reconstruction and simulation. Difficulty remained in verifying the centennial information and quantifying corresponding uncertainties, so additional effort should be devoted to this aspect in future research.

Insights into accumulation variability over the last 2000 years at James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massam, A.; Mulvaney, R.; McConnell, J.; Abram, N.; Arienzo, M. M.; Whitehouse, P. L.

2016-12-01

The James Ross Island ice core, drilled to 364 m on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, preserves a climate record that spans beyond the Holocene period to the end of the last glacial maximum (LGM). Reanalysis of the ice core using high-resolution continuous flow analysis (CFA) highlighted errors in the identification of events of known age that had been used to constrain the earlier chronology. The new JRI2 chronology is annual layer counted to 300 years, with the remaining profile reconstructed using a new age-depth model that is tied to age horizons identified in the annual-layer counted WAIS Divide ice core record. An accurate age-depth profile requires reliable known-age horizons along the ice core profile. In addition, these allow us to determine a solution for the accumulation history and rate of compaction due to vertical strain. The accuracy of the known-age constraints used in JRI2 allows only a small uncertainty in the reconstruction of the most recent 2000 years of accumulation variability. Independently, the surface temperature profile has been estimated from the stable water isotope profile and calibrated to borehole temperature observations. We present the accumulation, vertical thinning and temperature history interpreted from the James Ross Island ice core for the most recent 2000 years. JRI2 reconstructions show accumulation variability on a decadal to centennial timescale up to 20% from the present-day mean annual accumulation rate of 0.63 m yr-1. Analysis of the accumulation profile for James Ross Island offers insight into the sensitivity of accumulation to a change in surface temperature, as well as the reliability of the assumed relationship between accumulation and surface temperature in climate reconstructions using stable water isotope proxies.

Construction and Analysis of Long-Term Surface Temperature Dataset in Fujian Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W. E.; Wang, X. Q.; Su, H.

2017-09-01

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key parameter of land surface physical processes on global and regional scales, linking the heat fluxes and interactions between the ground and atmosphere. Based on MODIS 8-day LST products (MOD11A2) from the split-window algorithms, we constructed and obtained the monthly and annual LST dataset of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2015. Then, we analyzed the monthly and yearly time series LST data and further investigated the LST distribution and its evolution features. The average LST of Fujian Province reached the highest in July, while the lowest in January. The monthly and annual LST time series present a significantly periodic features (annual and interannual) from 2000 to 2015. The spatial distribution showed that the LST in North and West was lower than South and East in Fujian Province. With the rapid development and urbanization of the coastal area in Fujian Province, the LST in coastal urban region was significantly higher than that in mountainous rural region. The LST distributions might affected by the climate, topography and land cover types. The spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of LST could provide good references for the agricultural layout and environment monitoring in Fujian Province.

U.S. national climate change assessment on forest ecosystems: an introduction

Treesearch

Steven G. McNulty; John D. Aber

2001-01-01

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases have been increasing since the beginning of the industrial revolution in 1850. Over the next century, increasing gas concentrations could cause the temperature on the surface of the Earth to rise as much as 2-3°C over historic mean annual levels.Variation in annual...

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

PubMed

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Impacts of Soil-aquifer Heat and Water Fluxes on Simulated Global Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krakauer, N.Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, B. I.

2013-01-01

Climate models have traditionally only represented heat and water fluxes within relatively shallow soil layers, but there is increasing interest in the possible role of heat and water exchanges with the deeper subsurface. Here, we integrate an idealized 50m deep aquifer into the land surface module of the GISS ModelE general circulation model to test the influence of aquifer-soil moisture and heat exchanges on climate variables. We evaluate the impact on the modeled climate of aquifer-soil heat and water fluxes separately, as well as in combination. The addition of the aquifer to ModelE has limited impact on annual-mean climate, with little change in global mean land temperature, precipitation, or evaporation. The seasonal amplitude of deep soil temperature is strongly damped by the soil-aquifer heat flux. This not only improves the model representation of permafrost area but propagates to the surface, resulting in an increase in the seasonal amplitude of surface air temperature of >1K in the Arctic. The soil-aquifer water and heat fluxes both slightly decrease interannual variability in soil moisture and in landsurface temperature, and decrease the soil moisture memory of the land surface on seasonal to annual timescales. The results of this experiment suggest that deepening the modeled land surface, compared to modeling only a shallower soil column with a no-flux bottom boundary condition, has limited impact on mean climate but does affect seasonality and interannual persistence.

Temperature and water-quality conditions of the Patuxent River estuary, Maryland, January 1966 through December 1967

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cory, Robert L.; Nauman, Jon W.

1970-01-01

The effect of power plant cooling water in raising natural water temperatures at a location near the power plant on the Patuxent River estuary is clearly evident from thermograph records. Surface temperature at a station 333 m (1,000 ft) downstream from the discharge canal was raised an average of about 4 C, and at times by as much as 8 C. Temperature rises were greatest during the winter. Infrared imagery showed that elevated surface temperatures could be detected about 5.5 km (3 nautical miles) upstream at flood tide. Temperature profiles obtained from airborne radiation equipment revealed a complicated surface temperature pattern and also showed the effects of density differences and wind action on the steam-electric station (S.E.S.) effluent plume. Mean annual salinity for a 5-year period (1963–1967) was highest in 1966, about 12.3 ‰, and lowest in 1967, about 9.9‰. Dissolved oxygen values for 1966–1967 ranged from 3.2 to 15.6 mg/l, and saturation ranged from 55 to 152%. Turbidity levels were inversely related to salinity, with the highest annual, mean of 28 JCU (Jackson Candle Units) occurring in 1967, the lowest salinity year. The extreme tide range was 2.1 m (6.7 ft); mean water levels at the Patuxent Bridge were highest in summer and lowest in winter. Water stages are more affected by wind speed and direction than by flow in the river.

Formation of bubbly horizon in liquid-saturated porous medium by surface temperature oscillation.

PubMed

Goldobin, Denis S; Krauzin, Pavel V

2015-12-01

We study nonisothermal diffusion transport of a weakly soluble substance in a liquid-saturated porous medium in contact with a reservoir of this substance. The surface temperature of the porous medium half-space oscillates in time, which results in a decaying solubility wave propagating deep into the porous medium. In this system, zones of saturated solution and nondissolved phase coexist with ones of undersaturated solution. The effect is first considered for the case of annual oscillation of the surface temperature of water-saturated ground in contact with the atmosphere. We reveal the phenomenon of formation of a near-surface bubbly horizon due to temperature oscillation. An analytical theory of the phenomenon is developed. Further, the treatment is extended to the case of higher frequency oscillations and the case of weakly soluble solids and liquids.

Factors affecting summer distributions of Bering Sea forage fish species: Assessing competing hypotheses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker-Stetter, Sandra; Urmy, Samuel; Horne, John; Eisner, Lisa; Farley, Edward

2016-12-01

Hypotheses on the factors affecting forage fish species distributions are often proposed but rarely evaluated using a comprehensive suite of indices. Using 24 predictor indices, we compared competing hypotheses and calculated average models for the distributions of capelin, age-0 Pacific cod, and age-0 pollock in the eastern Bering Sea from 2006 to 2010. Distribution was described using a two stage modeling approach: probability of occurrence ("presence") and density when fish were present. Both local (varying by location and year) and annual (uniform in space but varying by year) indices were evaluated, the latter accounting for the possibility that distributions were random but that overall presence or densities changed with annual conditions. One regional index, distance to the location of preflexion larvae earlier in the year, was evaluated for age-0 pollock. Capelin distributions were best predicted by local indices such as bottom depth, temperature, and salinity. Annual climate (May sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice extent anomaly) and wind (June wind speed cubed) indices were often important for age-0 Pacific cod in addition to local indices (temperature and depth). Surface, midwater, and water column age-0 pollock distributions were best described by a combination of local (depth, temperature, salinity, zooplankton) and annual (May SST, sea ice anomaly, June wind speed cubed) indices. Our results corroborated some of those in previous distribution studies, but suggested that presence and density may also be influenced by other factors. Even though there were common environmental factors that influenced all species' distributions, it is not possible to generalize conditions for forage fish as a group.

Impact of Urban Growth on Surface Climate: A Case Study in Oran, Algeria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Safia, Abdelmounaine; Masek, Jeffrey; Peters-Lidars, Christaq; Imhoff, Marc L.

2008-01-01

We develop a land use map discriminating urban surfaces from other cover types over a semiarid region in North Africa and use it in a land surface model to assess the impact of urbanized land on surface energy, water and carbon balances. Unlike in temperate climates where urbanization creates a marked heat island effect, this effect is not strongly marked in semiarid regions. During summer, the urban class results in an additional warming of 1.45 C during daytime and 0.81 C at night compared to that simulated for needleleaf trees under similar climate conditions. Seasonal temperatures show urban areas warmer than their surrounding during summer and slightly cooler in winter. The hydrological cycle is practically "shut down" during summer and characterized by relatively large amount of runoff in winter. We estimate the annual amount of carbon uptake to 1.94 million metric tons with only 11.9% assimilated during the rainy season. However, if urbanization expands to reach 50% of the total area excluding forests, the annual total carbon uptake will decline by 35% and the July mean temperature would increase only 0.10 C, compared to current situation. In contrast, if urbanization expands to 50% of the total land excluding forests and croplands but all short vegetation is replaced by native broadleaf deciduous trees, the annual carbon uptake would increase 39% and the July mean temperature would decrease by 0.9 C, compared to current configuration. These results provide guidelines for urban planners and land use managers and indicate possibilities for mitigating the urban heat.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

PubMed

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

2015-08-11

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

Systematic losses of outdoor production from heat stress and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.

2017-12-01

Heat stress impacts humans today with heat waves, worker reductions, and health issues. Here we show novel results in labor productivity for outdoor work due to global warming. We use the HumanIndexMod to calculate 4x daily values of Simplified Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index (sWBGT) from the CMIP5 archive normalized by global mean surface temperature changes. Previous work shows that scaling of sWBGT is robust across the CMIP5 archive. We calculate total annual outdoor labor capacity from our scaled sWBGT results. Our results show modern day losses due to heat stress impacting outdoor work for low latitudes (and parts of Eastern China and the Southern United States). At 2°C of climate change, up to 20% losses to total capacity impact Midwestern United States, while the Southern United States suffers >20% losses. Western Coastal Africa suffers annual losses at >80%, along with the Amazon Basin and the greater South East Asia region. India suffers losses >50% annually. At +5°C, the estimated mean global change by 2100, the Equatorial region (Northern Australia and Northern Bolivia to Western Coastal Africa and Southern India) has complete cessation of annual outdoor work. The Midwest United States suffers losses up to 30%, and the Gulf of Mexico suffers losses >50%. Our results imply that small changes in global mean surface temperature (2°C) will lead to crippling losses to outdoor work annually, and ≥5°C losses will lead to cessation of labor for more than half the world's population.

Regional 500 mb heights and U.S. 1 000-500 mb thickness prior to the radiosonde era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaels, P. J.; Sappington, D. E.; Stooksbury, D. E.; Hayden, B. P.

1990-09-01

We developed a statistical model relating cyclone track eigenvectors over the U.S., southern Canada, and nearby oceans to a record of mean annual 500 mb heights. The length of the cyclone track record allowed us to calculate mean heights back to 1885. Use of mean annual surface pressure data allowed us to estimate the mean 1 000-500 mb thickness, which was related to mean annual temperature. This temperature calculation is unique in that it cannot suffer from urban or site bias. We find a warming of 1.5°C from the late 19th century to 1955, followed by a drop of 0.7° to 1980. By 1987, the calculated temperatures were 0.3° above the mean for 103 years of record. As an example of regional application, we examine results over the southwestern U.S.

Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi bin; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2018-06-01

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960-2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17-0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17-0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (- 0.15 to - 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

Should we care about diurnal temperatures when calculating the precipitation isotope thermometer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vachon, R.; Kloeckner, D.

2008-12-01

Long records of the concentrations of stable isotopes of precipitation (SIPs) have long been used as proxies for regional and global climates for periods when meteorological measurements were not made. SIPs' longstanding correlation to local surface temperatures (in many locations) and molecular thermal dynamics have lead to many interpretations of variability in SIPs to be changes in local temperatures. In order to create accurate temperature-SIP transfer functions one needs to link modern SIP concentrations to temperatures of when precipitation happened. A well-sited example of complexities in the temperature-SIP relationships - For simplicity one may assume that annual precipitation occurred at the same time of year throughout a long SIP archive, however, it is possible that the timing of precipitation actually shifted from summer to winter months. If the temperature difference between the seasons is large the SIP archive could be wrongly interpreted as a several degree cooling in average annual temperatures. Temperature changes similar in magnitude to seasonal fluctuations are also observed throughout a given day. What would happen if precipitation shifted from mid-afternoon to nighttime events? This line of thinking implies that diurnal effects plausibly should be considered when calculating SIP-transfer functions. This is particularly convincing when precipitation for a region is powered by middle of the day (summer) heat causing convective precipitation or evening cooling increasing relative humidities near the land's surface. This study examines both theoretical and observed (5 locations within North America) surface temperatures at the time of precipitation throughout a day and estimates diurnal effects on SIP-transfer functions. Ultimately, one must ask, how high does condensation form, and what are daily temperature patterns at those heights?

Characterizing an Integrated Annual Global Measure of the Earth's Maximum Land Surface Temperatures from 2003 to 2012 Reveals Strong Biogeographic Influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mildrexler, D. J.; Zhao, M.; Running, S. W.

2014-12-01

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a good indicator of the surface energy balance because it is determined by interactions and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and the ground. The variability of land surface properties and vegetation densities across the Earth's surface changes these interactions and gives LST a unique biogeographic influence. Natural and human-induced disturbances modify the surface characteristics and alter the expression of LST. This results in a heterogeneous and dynamic thermal environment. Measurements that merge these factors into a single global metric, while maintaining the important biophysical and biogeographical factors of the land surface's thermal environment are needed to better understand integrated temperature changes in the Earth system. Using satellite-based LST we have developed a new global metric that focuses on one critical component of LST that occurs when the relationship between vegetation density and surface temperature is strongly coupled: annual maximum LST (LSTmax). A 10 year evaluation of LSTmax histograms that include every 1-km pixel across the Earth's surface reveals that this integrative measurement is strongly influenced by the biogeographic patterns of the Earth's ecosystems, providing a unique comparative view of the planet every year that can be likened to the Earth's thermal maximum fingerprint. The biogeographical component is controlled by the frequency and distribution of vegetation types across the Earth's land surface and displays a trimodal distribution. The three modes are driven by ice covered polar regions, forests, and hot desert/shrubland environments. In ice covered areas the histograms show that the heat of fusion results in a convergence of surface temperatures around the melting point. The histograms also show low interannual variability reflecting two important global land surface dynamics; 1) only a small fraction of the Earth's surface is disturbed in any given year, and 2) when considered at the global scale, the positive and negative climate forcings resulting from the aggregate effects of the loss of vegetation to disturbances and the regrowth from natural succession are roughly in balance. Changes in any component of the histogram can be tracked and would indicate a major change in the Earth system.

Atlas of the Earth's radiation budget as measured by Nimbus-7: May 1979 to May 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kyle, H. Lee; Hucek, Richard R.; Vallette, Brenda J.

1991-01-01

This atlas describes the seasonal changes in the Earth's radiation budget for the 13-month period, May 1979 to May 1980. It helps to illustrate the strong feedback mechanisms by which the Earth's climate interacts with the top-of-the-atmosphere insolation to modify the energy that various regions absorb from the Sun. Cloud type and cloud amount, which are linked to the surface temperature and the regional climate, are key elements in this interaction. Annual, seasonal, and monthly maps of the albedo, outgoing longwave and net radiation, noontime cloud cover, and mean diurnal surface temperatures are presented. Annual and seasonal net cloud forcing maps are also given. All of the quantities were derived from Nimbus-7 satellite measurements except for the temperatures, which were used in the cloud detection algorithm and came originally from the Air Force 3-dimensional nephanalysis dataset. The seasonal changes are described. The interaction of clouds and the radiation budget is briefly discussed.

Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

2018-04-01

Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

A second-order Budkyo-type parameterization of landsurface hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andreou, S. A.; Eagleson, P. S.

1982-01-01

A simple, second order parameterization of the water fluxes at a land surface for use as the appropriate boundary condition in general circulation models of the global atmosphere was developed. The derived parameterization incorporates the high nonlinearities in the relationship between the near surface soil moisture and the evaporation, runoff and percolation fluxes. Based on the one dimensional statistical dynamic derivation of the annual water balance, it makes the transition to short term prediction of the moisture fluxes, through a Taylor expansion around the average annual soil moisture. A comparison of the suggested parameterization is made with other existing techniques and available measurements. A thermodynamic coupling is applied in order to obtain estimations of the surface ground temperature.

Regional patterns of the change in annual-mean tropical rainfall under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P.

2013-12-01

Projection of the change in tropical rainfall under global warming is a major challenge with great societal implications. The current study analyzes the 18 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, and investigates the regional pattern of annual-mean rainfall change under global warming. With surface warming, the climatological ascending pumps up increased surface moisture and leads rainfall increase over the tropical convergence zone (wet-get-wetter effect), while the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase induces ascending flow and then increasing rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean where the local oceanic warming exceeds the tropical mean temperature increase (warmer-get-wetter effect). The background surface moisture and SST also can modify warmer-get-wetter effect: the former can influence the moisture change and contribute to the distribution of moist instability change, while the latter can suppress the role of instability change over the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the threshold effect of convection-SST relationship. The wet-get-wetter and modified warmer-get-wetter effects form a hook-like pattern of rainfall change over the tropical Pacific and an elliptic pattern over the northern Indian Ocean. The annual-mean rainfall pattern can be partly projected based on current rainfall climatology, while it also has great uncertainties due to the uncertain change in SST pattern.

Large-scale stress factors affecting coral reefs: open ocean sea surface temperature and surface seawater aragonite saturation over the next 400 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meissner, K. J.; Lippmann, T.; Sen Gupta, A.

2012-06-01

One-third of the world's coral reefs have disappeared over the last 30 years, and a further third is under threat today from various stress factors. The main global stress factors on coral reefs have been identified as changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation (Ωarag). Here, we use a climate model of intermediate complexity, which includes an ocean general circulation model and a fully coupled carbon cycle, in conjunction with present-day observations of inter-annual SST variability to investigate three IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCP 3PD, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5), and their impact on the environmental stressors of coral reefs related to open ocean SST and open ocean Ωarag over the next 400 years. Our simulations show that for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the threshold of 3.3 for zonal and annual mean Ωarag would be crossed in the first half of this century. By year 2030, 66-85% of the reef locations considered in this study would experience severe bleaching events at least once every 10 years. Regardless of the concentration pathway, virtually every reef considered in this study (>97%) would experience severe thermal stress by year 2050. In all our simulations, changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation lead changes in temperatures.

Global, Hemispheric, and Zonal Temperature Deviations Derived From a 63-Station Radiosonde Network

DOE Data Explorer

Angell, J. K. [NOAA, Air Resources Laboratory

2011-01-01

Surface temperatures and thickness-derived temperatures from a 63-station, globally distributed radiosonde network have been used to estimate global, hemispheric, and zonal annual and seasonal temperature deviations. Most of the temperature values used were column-mean temperatures, obtained from the differences in height (thickness) between constant-pressure surfaces at individual radiosonde stations. The pressure-height data before 1980 were obtained from published values in Monthly Climatic Data for the World. Between 1980 and 1990, Angell used data from both the Climatic Data for the World and the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) Network received at the National Meteorological Center. Between 1990 and 1995, the data were obtained only from GTS, and since 1995 the data have been obtained from National Center for Atmospheric Research files. The data are evaluated as deviations from the mean based on the interval 1958-1977. The station deviations have been averaged (with equal weighting) to obtain annual and seasonal temperature deviations for the globe, the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and the following latitudinal zones: North (60° N-90° N) and South (60° S-90° S) Polar; North (30° N-60° N) and South (30° S-60° S) Temperate; North (10° N-30° N) and South (10° S-30° S) Subtropical; Tropical(30° S-30° N); and Equatorial (10° S-10° N). The seasonal calculations are for the standard meteorological seasons (i.e., winter is defined as December, January, and February; spring is March, April, and May, etc.) and the annual calculations are for December through the following November (i.e., for the four meteorological seasons). For greater details, see Angell and Korshover (1983) and Angell (1988, 1991)

Evaporation and Solar Irradiance as Regulators of Sea Surface Temparature in Annual and Interrannual Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy

1994-01-01

After numerical studies showed that global climate is sensitive to small changes in sea surface temperature (Ts), considerabel effort has been devoted to examine the role of surface fluxes in changing upper ocean heat balance and Ts, particularly in the tropical Pacific where interannual signals, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have major economic and ecological impacts.

Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Ozone and Intercontinental Ozone Pollution: A Multi-Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doherty, R. M.; Wild, O.; Shindell, D. T.; Zeng, G.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Collins, W. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Dentener, F. J.; Schultz, M. G.;

Urban Heat Island ın Ankara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yılmaz, Erkan

2016-04-01

In this study, the seasonal variation of the surface temperature of Ankara urban area and its enviroment have been analyzed by using Landsat 7 image. The Landsat 7 images of each month from 2007 to 2011 have been used to analyze the annually changes of the surface temperature. The land cover of the research area was defined with supervised classification method on the basis of the satellite image belonging to 2008 July. After determining the surface temperatures from 6-1 bands of satellite images, the monthly mean surface temperatures were calculated for land cover classification for the period between 2007 and 2011. According to the results obtained, the surface temperatures are high in summer and low in winter from the airtemperatures. all satellite images were taken at 10:00 am, it is found that urban areas are cooler than rural areas at 10:00 am. Regarding the land cover classification, the water surfaces are the coolest surfaces during the whole year.The warmest areas are the grasslands and dry farming areas. While the parks are warmer than the urban areas during the winter, during the summer they are cooler than artificial land covers. The urban areas with higher building density are the cooler surfaces after water bodies.

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buccola, Norman L.; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-04-01

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990-1999) and future (2059-2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam's spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake's surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake's surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

PubMed

Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

2018-01-01

Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

A Warmer Atmosphere on Mars Near the Noachian-Hesperian Boundary: Evidence from Basal Melting of the South Polar Ice Cap (Dorsa Argentea Formation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.; Marchant, D. R.; Forget, F.; Madeleine, J.-B.

2011-03-01

Dorsa Argentea Formation (Noachian-Hesperian) eskers are evidence for basal melting. Ice-flow models show that the mean annual south polar temperature must be raised to -50° to -75°C, providing an independent estimate of elevated lower latitude surface temperature.

Annual and seasonal distribution of day and night Land Surface Temperature trend over Greece.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmi, V.; Gemitzi, A.; Eleftheriou, D.; Kalea, A.; Kalmintzis, G.; Kiachidis, K.; Koumadoraki, P.; Mpantasis, C.; Spathara, M. E.; Tsolaki, A.; Tzampazidou, M. I.

2017-12-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging research topics during the last few decades, as temperature rise has already posed a significant impact on earth's functions affecting thus all life of the planet. The present study investigates the distribution of day and night Land Surface Temperature (LST) trends over Greece, a country in Mediterranean area which is identified as one of the main ``hot-spots" of climate change projections. Remotely sensed LST data were obtained from MODIS sensor in the form of 8-day composites of day and night values at a resolution of 1km for a 17-year period, i.e. from 2000 to 2017. Spatial aggregates of 10km x 10km were computed and the annual and seasonal temporal trends were determined for each one of those sub-areas. Results showed that annual trends of daily LST in the majority of areas demonstrated decrease ranging from -1*10-2 oC to -1.3*10-3 oC, with some sporadic parts showing a slight increase. A totally different outcome is observed in the fate of night LST, with all areas over Greece demonstrating increasing annual trends ranging from 4.6 * 10-5 oC to 3.1 * 10-3 oC, with highest values in the South-East parts of the country. Seasonal trends in day and night LST showed the same pattern, i.e., a general decrease in the day LST and a definite increase in night. An interesting finding is the increase in winter LST trends observed both for day and night LST, indicating that the absolute minimum annual LST observed during winter in Greece increases. Our results also indicate that the difference between the day and night LST is decreasing.

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Cosmic rays and other rpace phenomena influenced on the Earth's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lev, Dorman

2016-07-01

We consider effects of cosmic rays (CR) and some other space phenomena on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the Earth's climate is very unstable: decreasing of planetary average annual temperature leads to an increase of planetary snow surface, and decreasing of the total annual solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more. And inverse: increasing planetary temperature leads to an decrease of snow surface, and increasing of the total solar energy input into the system increases the planetary temperature even more. From this follows that even energetically small factors acted long time in one direction may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are CR (mostly through its influence on planetary cloudiness) and space dust (SD) through their influence on the flux of solar irradiation and on formation of clouds (these actions are in one direction). It is important that CR and SD influenced on global climate change in the same direction. Increasing of CR planetary intensity leads to increasing of formation clouds (especially low clouds on altitudes smaller than 3 km), increasing annual average of raining and decreasing of annual average planetary temperature. Increasing of SD decreases of solar irradiation and increases cloudiness what leads also to decreasing of annual average planetary temperature. Moreover, interactions of CR particles with dust granules decreases their dimensions what increased effectiveness of their actions on clouds. We consider data great variations of planetary temperature much before the beginning of the Earth's technological civilization (mostly caused by moving of the solar system around our Galaxy centre and collisions with molecular-dust clouds). We consider in details not only situation during the last hundred years, but also situation in the last one thousand years (and especially situation during Maunder minimum of solar activity), during many thousand and many millions years. It is shown that very big changes in climate were caused also by some rarely phenomena as impacts of asteroids and nearby supernova explosions with great influence on biosphere. We discuss also the problem on forecasting of global climate change what is especially important for saving present civilization from great climate catastrophes.

Analysis of spatial patterns underlying the linkage between solar irradiance and near-surface air temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balling, Robert C.; Roy, Shouraseni Sen

2005-06-01

Many scientists have noted that global temperature anomalies were highly correlated with solar irradiance values until sometime in the 1970s, but since that time, the pronounced warming in the near-surface temperature record is not explained by variations or trends in solar receipt. In this investigation, spatial dimensions are explored in the relationship between irradiance and near-surface air temperatures. At the scale of individual 5° by 5° grid cells, the solar control on annual temperature variations is not statistically significant. When the temperature data are aggregated by 5° latitudinal bands, the solar - temperature connect is generally significant, and in every band, there is substantial evidence that a non-solar control has become dominant in recent decades. The buildup of greenhouse gases and/or some other global-scale feedback, such as widespread changes in atmospheric water vapor, emerge as potential explanations for the recent residual warming found in all latitudinal bands.

Nonannual tree rings in a climate-sensitive Prioria copaifera chronology in the Atrato River, Colombia.

PubMed

Herrera-Ramirez, David; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Del Valle, Jorge I; Santos, Guaciara M; Gonzalez, Paula L M

2017-08-01

In temperate climates, tree growth dormancy usually ensures the annual nature of tree rings, but in tropical environments, determination of annual periodicity can be more complex. The purposes of the work are as follows: (1) to generate a reliable tree-ring width chronology for Prioria copaifera Griseb. (Leguminoceae), a tropical tree species dwelling in the Atrato River floodplains, Colombia; (2) to assess the climate signal recorded by the tree-ring records; and (3) to validate the annual periodicity of the tree rings using independent methods. We used standard dendrochronological procedures to generate the P. copaifera tree-ring chronology. We used Pearson correlations to evaluate the relationship of the chronology with the meteorological records, climate regional indices, and gridded precipitation/sea surface temperature products. We also evaluated 24 high-precision 14 C measurements spread over a range of preselected tree rings, with assigned calendar years by dendrochronological techniques, before and after the bomb spike in order to validate the annual nature of the tree rings. The tree-ring width chronology was statistically reliable, and it correlated significantly with local records of annual and October-December (OND) streamflow and precipitation across the upper river watershed (positive), and OND temperature (negative). It was also significantly related to the Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Southern Oscillation Index, as well as sea surface temperatures over the Caribbean and the Pacific region. However, 14 C high-precision measurements over the tree rings demonstrated offsets of up to 40 years that indicate that P. copaifera can produce more than one ring in certain years. Results derived from the strongest climate-growth relationship during the most recent years of the record suggest that the climatic signal reported may be due to the presence of annual rings in some of those trees in recent years. Our study alerts about the risk of applying dendrochronology in species with challenging anatomical features defining tree rings, commonly found in the tropics, without an independent validation of annual periodicity of tree rings. High-precision 14 C measurements in multiple trees are a useful method to validate the identification of annual tree rings.

Reconstruction of Monsoon Driven South China Sea Surface Ocean Circulation using Coral Δ14C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodkin, N.; Bolton, A.; Karnauskas, K. B.; Hughen, K. A.; Griffin, S.; Druffel, E. R. M.

2016-12-01

The need to improve our understanding of annual and decadal climate behavior in the South China Sea is increasingly important, as this region includes the largest population density globally but encompasses few climate records. Here we present a record of annually resolved Δ14C from a coral collected off the coast of Nha Trang, Vietnam (12°12'49.90″N, 109°18'17.51″E), that reveals a significant correlation to regional winter sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST), and extends back more than 400 years. Coral Δ14C during thermonuclear bomb testing indicates the presence of wet-season (summer) upwelling, demonstrated by low Δ14C values for both baseline and peak values relative to other records in the region (Bolton et al., 2016, Radiocarbon). However, annually resolved pre-bomb Δ14C correlates significantly to regional dry-season (winter) SLP and SST, indicating that annual variability is driven by changes to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and subsequent down-welling at this site. Spectral density is focused at 25, 11.8, 7, 4, and 3.2 years per cycle reflecting a range of influences on surface advection variability including the EAWM (D'Arrigo et al., 2005, GRL) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Spectral power at all of these frequencies decreases following the Little Ice Age ( 1600-1850?) to today, indicating that wind driven surface advection was more variable when hemispheric temperatures were cooler. Decadal variance in the past 100 years is significantly correlated to variance records of the Arctic Oscillation (AO, Thompson and Wallace, 1989, GRL), suggesting that increasing variance in the EAWM may be tied to increasing variance of the AO during the Little Ice Age and vice versa.

Heat transfer and phase transitions of water in multi-layer cryolithozone-surface systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabibullin, I. L.; Nigametyanova, G. A.; Nazmutdinov, F. F.

2018-01-01

A mathematical model for calculating the distribution of temperature and the dynamics of the phase transfor-mations of water in multilayer systems on permafrost-zone surface is proposed. The model allows one to perform calculations in the annual cycle, taking into account the distribution of temperature on the surface in warm and cold seasons. A system involving four layers, a snow or land cover, a top layer of soil, a layer of thermal-insulation materi-al, and a mineral soil, is analyzed. The calculations by the model allow one to choose the optimal thickness and com-position of the layers which would ensure the stability of structures built on the permafrost-zone surface.

Sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics of the surface air temperature annual cycle to variations in annual mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Guseva, M. S.

2006-05-01

The ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR data over 1958 1998 were used to estimate the sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics (APCs) of the annual cycle (AC) of the surface air temperature (SAT) T s. The results were compared with outputs of the ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and INM RAS general circulation models and the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity, which were run with variations in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol specified over 1860 2100. The analysis was performed in terms of the linear regression coefficients b of SAT AC APCs on the local annual mean temperature and in terms of the sensitivity characteristic D = br 2, which takes into account not only the linear regression coefficient but also its statistical significance (via the correlation coefficient r). The reanalysis data were used to reveal the features of the tendencies of change in the SAT AC APCs in various regions, including areas near the snow-ice boundary, storm-track ocean regions, large desert areas, and the tropical Pacific. These results agree with earlier observations. The model computations are in fairly good agreement with the reanalysis data in regions of statistically significant variations in SAT AC APCs. The differences between individual models and the reanalysis data can be explained, in particular, in terms of the features of the sea-ice schemes used in the models. Over the land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the absolute values of D for the fall phase time and the interval of exceeding exhibit a positive intermodel correlation with the absolute value of D for the annual-harmonic amplitude. Over the ocean, the models reproducing larger (in modulus) sensitivity parameters of the SAT annual-harmonic amplitude are generally characterized by larger (in modulus) negative sensitivity values of the semiannual-harmonic amplitude T s, 2, especially at latitudes characteristic of the sea-ice boundary. In contrast to the averaged fields of AC APCs and their interannual standard deviations, the sensitivity parameters of the SAT AC APCs on a regional scale vary noticeably for various types of anthropogenic forcing.

The Effect of Large Scale Climate Oscillations on the Land Surface Phenology of the Northern Polar Regions and Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Beurs, K.; Henebry, G. M.; Owsley, B.; Sokolik, I. N.

2016-12-01

Land surface phenology metrics allow for the summarization of long image time series into a set of annual observations that describe the vegetated growing season. These metrics have been shown to respond to both large scale climatic and anthropogenic impacts. In this study we assemble a time series (2001 - 2014) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectance data and land surface temperature data at 0.05º spatial resolution. We then derive land surface phenology metrics focusing on the peak of the growing season by fitting quadratic regression models using NDVI and Accumulated Growing Degree-Days (AGDD) derived from land surface temperature. We link the annual information on the peak timing, the thermal time to peak and the maximum of the growing season with five of the most important large scale climate oscillations: NAO, AO, PDO, PNA and ENSO. We demonstrate several significant correlations between the climate oscillations and the land surface phenology peak metrics for a range of different bioclimatic regions in both dryland Central Asia and the northern Polar Regions. We will then link the correlation results with trends derived by the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend detection method applied to several satellite derived vegetation and albedo datasets.

Reassessment of urbanization effect on surface air temperature trends at an urban station of North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, Tao; Ren, Guoyu

2017-11-01

Based on a homogenized data set of monthly mean temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature at Shijiazhuang City Meteorological Station (Shijiazhuang station) and four rural meteorological stations selected applying a more sophisticated methodology, we reanalyzed the urbanization effects on annual, seasonal, and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends for updated time period 1960-2012 at the typical urban station in North China. The results showed that (1) urbanization effects on the long-term trends of annual mean SAT, minimum SAT, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in the last 53 years reached 0.25, 0.47, and - 0.50 °C/decade, respectively, all statistically significant at the 0.001 confidence level, with the contributions from urbanization effects to the overall long-term trends reaching 67.8, 78.6, and 100%, respectively; (2) the urbanization effects on the trends of seasonal mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also large and statistically highly significant. Except for November and December, the urbanization effects on monthly mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also all statistically significant at the 0.05 confidence level; and (3) the annual, seasonal, and monthly mean maximum SAT series at the urban station registered a generally weaker and non-significant urbanization effect. The updated analysis evidenced that our previous work for this same urban station had underestimated the urbanization effect and its contribution to the overall changes in the SAT series. Many similar urban stations were being included in the current national and regional SAT data sets, and the results of this paper further indicated the importance and urgency for paying more attention to the urbanization bias in the monitoring and detection of global and regional SAT change based on the data sets.

Metals and Ceramics Division Materials Sciences Program. Annual progress report for period ending December 31, 1985

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stiegler, J.O.

1986-06-01

The report is divided into the following: structural characterization, high-temperature alloy research, structural ceramics, radiation effects, structure and properties of surfaces and interfaces, and collaborative research centers. (DLC)

Methodology and results of calculating central California surface temperature trends: Evidence of human-induced climate change?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, J.R.; Norris, W.B.; Redmond, K.; Gallo, K.P.

2006-01-01

A procedure is described to construct time series of regional surface temperatures and is then applied to interior central California stations to test the hypothesis that century-scale trend differences between irrigated and nonirrigated regions may be identified. The procedure requires documentation of every point in time at which a discontinuity in a station record may have occurred through (a) the examination of metadata forms (e.g., station moves) and (b) simple statistical tests. From this "homogeneous segments" of temperature records for each station are defined. Biases are determined for each segment relative to all others through a method employing mathematical graph theory. The debiased segments are then merged, forming a complete regional time series. Time series of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for stations in the irrigated San Joaquin Valley (Valley) and nearby nonirrigated Sierra Nevada (Sierra) were generated for 1910-2003. Results show that twentieth-century Valley minimum temperatures are warming at a highly significant rate in all seasons, being greatest in summer and fall (> +0.25??C decade-1). The Valley trend of annual mean temperatures is +0.07?? ?? 0.07??C decade-1. Sierra summer and fall minimum temperatures appear to be cooling, but at a less significant rate, while the trend of annual mean Sierra temperatures is an unremarkable -0.02?? ?? 0.10??C decade-1. A working hypothesis is that the relative positive trends in Valley minus Sierra minima (>0.4??C decade-1 for summer and fall) are related to the altered surface environment brought about by the growth of irrigated agriculture, essentially changing a high-albedo desert into a darker, moister, vegetated plain. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

2000-01-01

We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is sensitive to continental-scale changes in climate and could be affected by future climate change. Plant and animal species sensitive to changes in the moisture regime could thus be endangered within the Great Lakes parks.

Dynamics of upwelling annual cycle in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li-Chiao; Jin, Fei-Fei; Wu, Chau-Ron; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

2017-04-01

The annual upwelling is an important component of the equatorial Atlantic annual cycle. A simple theory is proposed using the framework of Zebiak-Cane (ZC) ocean model for insights into the dynamics of the upwelling annual cycle. It is demonstrated that in the Atlantic equatorial region this upwelling is dominated by Ekman processing in the west, whereas in the east it is primarily owing to shoaling and deepening of the thermocline resulting from equatorial mass meridional recharge/discharge and zonal redistribution processes associated with wind-driven equatorial ocean waves. This wind-driven wave upwelling plays an important role in the development of the annual cycle in the sea surface temperature of the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Atlantic.

Solifluction rates and environmental controls at local and regional scales in central Austria

PubMed Central

Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Solifluction is a widespread periglacial phenomenon. Little is known about present solifluction rates in Austria. The author monitored five solifluction lobes during a four-year period. Annual rates of surface velocity, vertical velocity profiles, depths of movement, and volumetric velocities were quantified using near-surface markers and painted lines. Environmental conditions were assessed using air temperature, soil texture, and ground temperature-derived parameters. The latter were used to estimate the relevance of needle-ice creep, diurnal frost creep, annual frost creep, and gelifluction. The mean surface velocity rates were 3.5–6.1 cm yr−1 (near-surface markers) and 6.2–8.9 cm yr−1 (painted lines), respectively, indicating a high relevance of needle-ice creep. The mean depth of movement was 32.5–40 cm. The mean volumetric velocities were 71–102 cm3 cm−1 yr−1. Solifluction rates at the five sites did not correlate with each other due to site-specific controls. No statistically significant correlations were quantified between solifluction rates and different environmental parameters due to data gaps and short time series, thus highlighting the importance of long-term monitoring. Nevertheless, the results suggest that longer zero curtain periods, longer seasonal ground thawing periods, later start of the seasonal snow cover, more freeze-thaw cycles, and cooler early summer temperatures promote solifluction. PMID:29479580

The spatial-temporal dynamics of open surface water bodies in CONUS during 1984-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Z.; Xiao, X.; Dong, J.; Qin, Y.; Doughty, R.; Menarguez, M.; Wang, J.

2017-12-01

Open surface water bodies provided 80% of the total water withdrawals in the Contiguous United States (CONUS) in 1985-2010. The inter-annual variability and changing trends of surface water body areas have various impacts on the human society and ecosystems. This study made use of all Landsat 5, 7, and 8 surface reflectance archives ( 370,000 images) during 1984-2016 and a water index- and pixel-based approach to detect and map open surface water bodies in the cloud-based platform of Google Earth Engine. The year-long water body area and annual average water body area were calculated for each of the last 33 years and their inter-annual variations during 1984-2016 were analyzed through anomaly analysis while their changing trends were analyzed through linear regressions. The national annual average water body areas varied from 265,000 to 281,000 km2 during 1984-2016, which is 3% below to 3% above the mean value 274,000 km2. In state level, significant decreasing trends were found in both year-long and annual average water body areas in some states of dry climates in west and southwest U.S., including Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. In comparison, significant increasing trends were found in some states of wet climates in the southeast and north U.S., including Indiana, Ohio, New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and South Dakota. Open surface water body areas in CONUS decreased in relatively dry areas but increased in relatively wet areas. The relationships between open surface water body area variability and climate factors (precipitation, temperature) and human impacts (water exploitation) were also analyzed.

Hot, cold, and annual reference atmospheres for Edwards Air Force Base, California (1975 version)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, D. L.

1975-01-01

Reference atmospheres pertaining to summer (hot), winter (cold), and mean annual conditions for Edwards Air Force Base, California, are presented from surface to 90 km altitude (700 km for the annual model). Computed values of pressure, kinetic temperature, virtual temperature, and density and relative differences percentage departure from the Edwards reference atmospheres, 1975 (ERA-75) of the atmospheric parameters versus altitude are tabulated in 250 m increments. Hydrostatic and gas law equations were used in conjunction with radiosonde and rocketsonde thermodynamic data in determining the vertical structure of these atmospheric models. The thermodynamic parameters were all subjected to a fifth degree least-squares curve-fit procedure, and the resulting coefficients were incorporated into Univac 1108 computer subroutines so that any quantity may be recomputed at any desired altitude using these subroutines.

Hydrologic connectivity in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica: System function and changes over two decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wlostowski, A. N.; Gooseff, M. N.; Bernzott, E. D.; McKnight, D. M.; Jaros, C.; Lyons, W.

2013-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is one of the coldest (average annual air temperature of -18°C) and driest (<10cm water equivalent of precip per year) places on earth. Despite the harsh climatic conditions of this landscape, a thriving microbial and invertebrate ecosystem exists, but is limited by the availability of liquid water. So, it is important to quantify temporal and spatial dynamics of hydrologic and ecological connections in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Intermittent glacial meltwater streams connect glaciers to closed basin lakes and compose the most prominent hydrologic nexus in the valleys. This study uses of 20+ years of stream temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), and discharge data to enhance our quantitative understanding of the temporal dynamics of hydrologic connections along the glacier-stream-lake continuum. Annually, streamflow occurs for a relatively brief 10-12 week period of the austral summer. Longer streams are more prone to intermittent dry periods during the flow season, making for a harsher ecological environment than shorter streams. Diurnal streamflow variation occurs primarily as a result of changing solar postion relative to the source-glacier surfaces. Therfore, different streams predictably experience high flows and low flows at different times of the day. Electrical conductivity also exhibits diel variations, but the nature of EC-discharge relationships differs among streams throughout the valley. Longer streams have higher EC values and lower discharges than shorter streams, suggesting that hyporheic zones act as a significant solute source and hydrologic reservoir along longer streams. Water temperatures are consistently warmer in longer streams, relative to shorter streams, likely due to prolonged exposure to incident radiation with longer surface water residence times. Inter-annually, several shorter streams in the region show significant increases in Q10, Q30, Q50, Q70, Q90, and/or Q100 flows across the 20+ year record, indicating a long-term non-stationarity in hydrologic system dynamics. The tight coupling between surface waters and the glacier surface energy balance bring forth remarkably consistent hydrologic patterns on the daily and annual timescales, providing a model system for understanding fundamental hydro-ecological connectivity. We are beginning to understand long-term inter-annual changes in hydrologic connections in this thermodynamically sensitive landscape, with the aid of well-maintained long-term data sets.

Methane efflux measured by eddy covariance in Alaskan upland tundra undergoing permafrost degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, M.; Celis, G.; Ledman, J.; Bracho, R. G.; Schuur, E.

2017-12-01

Permafrost thaw can increase landscape heterogeneity, leading to wetter and drier soil conditions that affect the magnitude and form (carbon dioxide - CO2 and methane - CH4) of carbon produced via microbial decomposition. Environmental controls on CH4 emissions, especially in drier upland tundra systems, are not well understood. In degrading upland tundra permafrost, cold season CH4 fluxes may contribute significantly to annual emissions from CH4 production within unfrozen layers deep in the soil profile. Eight Mile Lake (EML), located in Interior Alaska near Denali National Park, is a moist acidic tussock tundra ecosystem undergoing permafrost degradation. Perennially frozen soils have warmed between 1985 and 2016 from -1.2 to -0.75˚C resulting in a deeper active layer depth from 61 to 70 cm between 2004-2016. Depth from the soil/moss surface to the water table perched on the permafrost surface has decreased from 30 to 20 cm over the same interval. Here we present the first year of continuous CH4 flux measurements made at EML (May 2016 - May 2017). The site was a net source of low-level CH4 emissions throughout the year. Annual CH4 emissions (1.3 g C yr-1) made up 8.8% of total annual C emissions (14.7 g m-2yr-1). Methane flux is related with soil temperatures during both summer and non-summer seasons. Emissions increased throughout the summer season as thaw depth and soil temperatures increased. In contrast with wetland sites where water table is at or above the soil surface for much of the growing season, EML is relatively dry and there was no relationship between soil moisture and emissions. Non-summer season CH4 emissions are related to increases in atmospheric and shallow soil temperatures. Winter season emissions account for 37% of the annual CH4 budget, the bulk of which occurred between October and January when deep soils remained thawed. Non-summer season CH4 and CO2 pulses appear to be coupled, suggesting a similar mechanism for release. We hypothesize that this relationship is the result of surface soils warming and cracking, allowing for the escape of microbially produced gases at depth. While annual CH4 emissions made up 8.8% of total annual C emissions at this site, taking into account the greenhouse warming potential of CH4 relative to CO2, the climate impact of CH4 is 15.6 g m-2yr-1, or 69% of the C budget.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A; Hegewisch, Katherine C

2018-01-09

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

The effects of orbital and climatic variations on Martian surface heat flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, Michael T.; Jakosky, Bruce M.

1993-01-01

Large changes in the orbital elements of Mars on timescales of 10(exp 4) to 10(exp 6) years will cause widely varying climate, specifically surface temperatures, as a result of varying insolation. These surface temperature oscillations will produce subsurface thermal gradients which contribute to the total surface heat flux. We investigate the thermal behavior of the Martian regolith on orbital timescales and show that this climatological surface heat flux is spatially variable and contributes significantly to the total surface heat flux at many locations. We model the thermal behavior of the Martian regolith by calculating the mean annual surface temperatures for each epoch (spaced 1000 years apart to resolve orbital variations) for the past 200,000 years at a chosen location on the surface. These temperatures are used as a boundary condition for the deeper regolith and subsurface temperature oscillation are then computed. The surface climatological heat flux due to past climate changes can then be found from the temperature gradient between the surface and about 150 m depth (a fraction of the thermal skin depth on these timescales). This method provides a fairly accurate determination of the climatological heat flow component at a point; however, this method is computationally time consuming and cannot be applied to all points on the globe. To map the spatial variations in the surface heat flow we recognize that the subsurface temperature structure will be largely dominated by the most recent surface temperature oscillations. In fact, the climate component of the surface heat flow will be approximately proportional to the magnitude of the most recent surface temperature change. By calculating surface temperatures at all points globally for the present epoch and an appropriate past epoch, and combining these results with a series of more precise calculations described above, we estimate the global distribution of climatological surface heat flow.

Tidal and atmospheric forcing of the upper ocean in the Gulf of California. 2: Surface heat flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paden, Cynthia A.; Winant, Clinton D.; Abbott, Mark R.

1993-01-01

Satellite infrared imagery and coastal meteorological data for March 1984 through February 1985 are used to estimate the net annual surface heat flux for the northern Gulf of California. The average annual surface heat flux for the area north of Guaymas and Santa Rosalia is estimated to be +74 W/sq m for the 1984-1985 time period. This is comparable to the +20-50 W/sq m previously obtained from heat and freshwater transport estimates made with hydrographic surveys from different years and months. The spatial distribution of the net surface heat flux shows a net gain of heat over the whole northern gulf. Except for a local maximum near San Esteban Island, the largest heat gain (+110-120 W/sq m) occurs in the Ballenas and Salsipuedes channels, where strong tidal mixing produces anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over much of the year. The lowest heat gain occurs in the Guayamas Basin (+40-50 W/sq m), where SSTs are consistently warmer. In the relatively shallow northern basin the net surface heat flux is farily uniform, with a net annual gain of approxmately +70 W/sq m. A local minimum in heat gain (approximately +60 W/sq m) is observed over the shelf in the northwest, where spring and summer surface temperatures are particularly high. A similar minimum in heat gain over the shelf was observed in a separate study in which historical SSTs and 7 years (1979-1986) of meteorological data from Puerto Penasco were used to estimate the net surface heat flux for the northern basin. In that study, however, the heat fluxes were higher, with a gain of +100 W/sq m over the shelf and +114 W/sq m in the northern basin. These larger values are directly attributable to the higher humidities in the 1979-1986 study compared to the 1984-1985 satellite study. High humidities reduce evaporation and the associated latent heat loss, promoting a net annual heat gain. In the norther Gulf of California, however, tidal mixing appears to play a key role in the observed gain of heat. Deep mixing in the island region produces a persistent pool of cold water which is mixed horizontally by the large-scale circulation, lowering surface temperatures over most of the northern gulf. These cold SSTs decrease evaporation by reducing the saturation vapor pressure of the overlying air. As a result, heat loss is substantially reduced, even when humidities are low. By removing heat from the surface, tidal mixing alters the time scale of air-sea interaction and reduces or possibly even inhibits the formation of deep water masses via convection.

Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnel, Michael S.; Ignizio, Drew A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed climate indices, referred to as bioclimatic predictors, which highlight climate conditions best related to species physiology. A set of 20 bioclimatic predictors were developed as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) continuous raster surfaces for each year between 1895 and 2009. The Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and down-scaled PRISM data, which included both averaged multi-year and averaged monthly climate summaries, was used to develop these multi-scale bioclimatic predictors. Bioclimatic predictors capture information about annual conditions (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, annual range in temperature and precipitation), as well as seasonal mean climate conditions and intra-year seasonality (temperature of the coldest and warmest months, precipitation of the wettest and driest quarters). Examining climate over time is useful when quantifying the effects of climate changes on species' distributions for past, current, and forecasted scenarios. These data, which have not been readily available to scientists, can provide biologists and ecologists with relevant and multi-scaled climate data to augment research on the responses of species to changing climate conditions. The relationships established between species demographics and distributions with bioclimatic predictors can inform land managers of climatic effects on species during decisionmaking processes.

The NSA/SHEBA Cloud & Radiation Comparison Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janet M. Intrieri; Matthew D. Shupe

2004-08-23

Cloud and radiation data from two distinctly different Arctic areas are analyzed to study the differences between coastal Alaskan and open Arctic Ocean region clouds and their respective influence on the surface radiation budget. The cloud and radiation datasets were obtained from 1) the DOE North Slope of Alaska (NSA) facility in the coastal town of Barrow, Alaska, and 2) the SHEBA field program, which was conducted from an icebreaker frozen in, and drifting with, the sea-ice for one year in the Western Arctic Ocean. Radar, lidar, radiometer, and sounding measurements from both locations were used to produce annual cyclesmore » of cloud occurrence and height, atmospheric temperature and humidity, surface longwave and shortwave broadband fluxes, surface albedo, and cloud radiative forcing. In general, both regions revealed a similar annual trend of cloud occurrence fraction with minimum values in winter (60-75%) and maximum values during spring, summer and fall (80-90%). However, the annual average cloud occurrence fraction for SHEBA (76%) was lower than the 6-year average cloud occurrence at NSA (92%). Both Arctic areas also showed similar annual cycle trends of cloud forcing with clouds warming the surface through most of the year and a period of surface cooling during the summer, when cloud shading effects overwhelm cloud greenhouse effects. The greatest difference between the two regions was observed in the magnitude of the cloud cooling effect (i.e., shortwave cloud forcing), which was significantly stronger at NSA and lasted for a longer period of time than at SHEBA. This is predominantly due to the longer and stronger melt season at NSA (i.e., albedo values that are much lower coupled with Sun angles that are somewhat higher) than the melt season observed over the ice pack at SHEBA. Longwave cloud forcing values were comparable between the two sites indicating a general similarity in cloudiness and atmospheric temperature and humidity structure between the two regions.« less

Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2011-01-01

The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can not be explained by temperature alone and other causes have to be considered.

Linear extension rates of massive corals from the Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO), Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muslic, Adis; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Reich, Christopher D.; Umberger, Daniel K.; Smoak, Joseph M.; Poore, Richard Z.

2013-01-01

Colonies of three coral species, Montastraea faveolata, Diploria strigosa, and Siderastrea siderea, located in the Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO), Florida, were sampled and analyzed to evaluate annual linear extension rates. Montastraea faveolata had the highest average linear extension and variability in (DRTO: C2 = 0.67 centimeters/year (cm yr-1) ± 0.04, B3 = 0.85 cm yr-1 ± 0.07), followed by D. strigosa (DRTO: C1 = 0.73 cm yr-1 ± 0.04; MK = 0.59 cm yr-1 ± 0.06) and S. siderea (DRTO: A1 = 0.41 cm yr-1 ± 0.03). Intercolony comparison of M. faveolata from DRTO yielded a significant correlation (r = 0.34, df = 67, P = 0.005) and similar long-term patterns. DRTO S. siderea core A1 showed an overall increasing trend (r = 0.61, df = 119, P < 0.0001) in extension rates that correlated significantly with International Comprehensive Ocean/Atmosphere Data Set annual sea-surface temperature (r = 0.42, df = 115, P < 0.0001) and an air temperature record from Key West (r = 0.37, df = 111, P < 0.0001). In conclusion, annual linear extension rates are species specific and potentially influence by long-term variability in sea-surface temperature.

Long-term MODIS observations of cyanobacterial dynamics in Lake Taihu: Responses to nutrient enrichment and meteorological factors

PubMed Central

Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhou, Yongqiang; Liu, Xiaohan; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Gao, Guang

2017-01-01

We developed and validated an empirical model for estimating chlorophyll a concentrations (Chla) in Lake Taihu to generate a long-term Chla and algal bloom area time series from MODIS-Aqua observations for 2003 to 2013. Then, based on the long-term time series data, we quantified the responses of cyanobacterial dynamics to nutrient enrichment and climatic conditions. Chla showed substantial spatial and temporal variability. In addition, the annual mean cyanobacterial surface bloom area exhibited an increasing trend across the entire lake from 2003 to 2013, with the exception of 2006 and 2007. High air temperature and phosphorus levels in the spring can prompt cyanobacterial growth, and low wind speeds and low atmospheric pressure levels favor cyanobacterial surface bloom formation. The sensitivity of cyanobacterial dynamics to climatic conditions was found to vary by region. Our results indicate that temperature is the most important factor controlling Chla inter-annual variability followed by phosphorus and that air pressure is the most important factor controlling cyanobacterial surface bloom formation followed by wind speeds in Lake Taihu. PMID:28074871

Ground-water temperature of the Wyoming quadrangle in central Delaware : with application to ground-water-source heat pumps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodges, Arthur L.

1982-01-01

Ground-water temperature was measured during a one-year period (1980-81) in 20 wells in the Wyoming Quadrangle in central Delaware. Data from thermistors set at fixed depths in two wells were collected twice each week, and vertical temperature profiles of the remaining 18 wells were made monthly. Ground-water temperature at 8 feet below land surface in well Jc55-1 ranged from 45.0 degrees F in February to 70.1 degrees F in September. Temperature at 35 feet below land surface in the same well reached a minimum of 56.0 degrees F in August, and a maximum of 57.8 degrees F in February. Average annual temperature of ground water at 25 feet below land surface in all wells ranged from 54.6 degrees F to 57.8 degrees F. Variations of average temperature probably reflect the presence or absence of forestation in the recharge areas of the wells. Ground-water-source heat pumps supplied with water from wells 30 or more feet below land surface will operate more efficiently in both heating and cooling modes than those supplied with water from shallower depths. (USGS)

Seasonal precipitation forecasting for the Melbourne region using a Self-Organizing Maps approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pidoto, Ross; Wallner, Markus; Haberlandt, Uwe

2017-04-01

The Melbourne region experiences highly variable inter-annual rainfall. For close to a decade during the 2000s, below average rainfall seriously affected the environment, water supplies and agriculture. A seasonal rainfall forecasting model for the Melbourne region based on the novel approach of a Self-Organizing Map has been developed and tested for its prediction performance. Predictor variables at varying lead times were first assessed for inclusion within the model by calculating their importance via Random Forests. Predictor variables tested include the climate indices SOI, DMI and N3.4, in addition to gridded global sea surface temperature data. Five forecasting models were developed: an annual model and four seasonal models, each individually optimized for performance through Pearson's correlation r and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The annual model showed a prediction performance of r = 0.54 and NSE = 0.14. The best seasonal model was for spring, with r = 0.61 and NSE = 0.31. Autumn was the worst performing seasonal model. The sea surface temperature data contributed fewer predictor variables compared to climate indices. Most predictor variables were supplied at a minimum lead, however some predictors were found at lead times of up to a year.

Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yihui; Ren, Guoyu; Zhao, Zongci; Xu, Ying; Luo, Yong; Li, Qiaoping; Zhang, Jin

2007-11-01

This article summarizes the main results and findings of studies conducted by Chinese scientists in the past five years. It is shown that observed climate change in China bears a strong similarity with the global average. The country-averaged annual mean surface air temperature has increased by 1.1°C over the past 50 years and 0.5-0.8°C over the past 100 years, slightly higher than the global temperature increase for the same periods. Northern China and winter have experienced the greatest increases in surface air temperature. Although no significant trend has been found in country-averaged annual precipitation, interdecadal variability and obvious trends on regional scales are detectable, with northwestern China and the mid and lower Yangtze River basin having undergone an obvious increase, and North China a severe drought. Some analyses show that frequency and magnitude of extreme weather and climate events have also undergone significant changes in the past 50 years or so. Studies of the causes of regional climate change through the use of climate models and consideration of various forcings, show that the warming of the last 50 years could possibly be attributed to an increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, while the temperature change of the first half of the 20th century may be due to solar activity, volcanic eruptions and sea surface temperature change. A significant decline in sunshine duration and solar radiation at the surface in eastern China has been attributed to the increased emission of pollutants. Projections of future climate by models of the NCC (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration) and the IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences), as well as 40 models developed overseas, indicate a potential significant warming in China in the 21st century, with the largest warming set to occur in winter months and in northern China. Under varied emission scenarios, the country-averaged annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.5-2.1°C by 2020, 2.3-3.3°C by 2050, and by 3.9-6.0°C by 2100, in comparison to the 30-year average of 1961-1990. Most models project a 10%-12% increase in annual precipitation in China by 2100, with the trend being particularly evident in Northeast and Northwest China, but with parts of central China probably undergoing a drying trend. Large uncertainty exists in the projection of precipitation, and further studies are needed. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change will probably lead to a weaker winter monsoon and a stronger summer monsoon in eastern Asia.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

GCM simulations of cold dry Snowball Earth atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.; Held, I.; Marotzke, J.

2009-12-01

We use the full-physics atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 to investigate cold and virtually dry Snowball Earth atmospheres. These result from specifying sea ice as the surface boundary condition everywhere, corresponding to a frozen aquaplanet, while keeping total solar irradiance at its present-day value of 1365 Wm-2 and setting atmospheric carbon dioxide to 300 ppmv. Here, we present four simulations corresponding to the four possible combinations of enabled or disabled diurnal and seasonal cycles. The aim of this study is twofold. First, we focus on the zonal-mean circulation of Snowball Earth atmospheres, which, due to missing moisture, might constitute an ideal though yet unexplored testbed for theories of atmospheric dynamics. Second, we investigate tropical surface temperatures with an emphasis on the impact of the diurnal and seasonal cycles. This will indicate whether the presence of the diurnal or seasonal cycle would facilitate or anticipate the escape from Snowball Earth conditions when total solar irradiance or atmospheric CO2 levels were increased. The dynamics of the tropical circulation in Snowball Earth atmospheres differs substantially from that in the modern atmosphere. The analysis of the mean zonal momentum budget reveals that the mean flow meridional advection of absolute vorticity is primarily balanced by vertical diffusion of zonal momentum. The contribution of eddies is found to be even smaller than the contribution of mean flow vertical advection of zonal momentum, the latter being usually neglected in theories for the Hadley circulation, at least in its upper tropospheric branch. Suppressing vertical diffusion of horizontal momentum above 850 hPa leads to a stronger Hadley circulation. This behaviour cannot be understood from axisymmetric models of the atmosphere, nor idealized atmospheric general circulation models, which both predict a weakening of the Hadley circulation when the vertical viscosity is decreased globally. We find that enabling the diurnal cycle does not change tropical annual-mean surface temperatures but significantly strengthens the Hadley circulation, which increases by 33% for equinoctial and by 50% during solstitial insolation conditions compared to simulations without diurnal cycle. Including the seasonal cycle results in a ''reversed'' annual-mean Hadley circulation with subsiding motion at the equator and ascending motion around 15N/S, a manifestation of the extreme seasonality of Snowball Earth atmospheres due to the low thermal inertia of the sea-ice surface. The impact of the seasonal cycle on the tropical annual-mean surface is a straightforward consequence of changes in insolation distribution: as annual-mean incoming shortwave radiation at the equator reduces by 18 Wm-2 for enabled seasonal cycle, tropical annual-mean surface temperatures decrease from 221 K to 217 K.

Micro-phytoplankton community structure in the coastal upwelling zone off Concepción (central Chile): Annual and inter-annual fluctuations in a highly dynamic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anabalón, V.; Morales, C. E.; González, H. E.; Menschel, E.; Schneider, W.; Hormazabal, S.; Valencia, L.; Escribano, R.

2016-12-01

An intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in recent decades has been detected in some of the main eastern boundary current systems, especially at higher latitudes, but the response of coastal phytoplankton communities in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) remains unknown. At higher latitudes in the HCS (35-40°S), strong seasonality in wind-driven upwelling during spring-summer coincides with an annual increase in coastal chlorophyll-a and primary production, and a dominance of micro-phytoplankton. In order to understand the effects of potential upwelling intensification on the micro-phytoplankton community in this region, annual and inter-annual variability in its structure (total and taxa-specific abundance and biomass) and its association with oceanographic fluctuations were analyzed using in situ time series data (2002-2009) from a shelf station off Concepcion (36.5°S). At the annual scale, total mean abundance and biomass, attributed to a few dominant diatom taxa, were at least one order of magnitude greater during spring-summer than autumn-winter, in association with changes in upwelling and surface salinity and temperature, whereas macro-nutrient concentrations remained relatively high all the year. At the inter-annual scale, total abundance and biomass decreased during the upwelling season of the 2006-2009 period compared with the 2002-2006 period, notably due to lower abundances of Skeletonema and Leptocylindrus, but the relative dominance of a few taxa was maintained. The 2006-2009 period was characterized by higher upwelling intensity, colder and higher salinity waters, and changes in nutrient concentrations and ratios compared with the first period. The inter-annual changes in the micro-phytoplankton community were mostly associated with changes in surface salinity and temperature (changes in upwelling intensity) but also with changes in Si/N and N/P, which relate to other land-derived processes.

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-01-01

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990–1999) and future (2059–2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam’s spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake’s surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake’s surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

Improvements of top-of-atmosphere and surface irradiance computations with CALIPSO-, CloudSat-, and MODIS-derived cloud and aerosol properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Seiji; Rose, Fred G.; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Miller, Walter F.; Chen, Yan; Rutan, David A.; Stephens, Graeme L.; Loeb, Norman G.; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Winker, David M.; Charlock, Thomas P.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Xu, Kuan-Man; Collins, William D.

2011-10-01

One year of instantaneous top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface shortwave and longwave irradiances are computed using cloud and aerosol properties derived from instruments on the A-Train Constellation: the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) on the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, the CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), and the Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). When modeled irradiances are compared with those computed with cloud properties derived from MODIS radiances by a Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) cloud algorithm, the global and annual mean of modeled instantaneous TOA irradiances decreases by 12.5 W m-2 (5.0%) for reflected shortwave and 2.5 W m-2 (1.1%) for longwave irradiances. As a result, the global annual mean of instantaneous TOA irradiances agrees better with CERES-derived irradiances to within 0.5W m-2 (out of 237.8 W m-2) for reflected shortwave and 2.6W m-2 (out of 240.1 W m-2) for longwave irradiances. In addition, the global annual mean of instantaneous surface downward longwave irradiances increases by 3.6 W m-2 (1.0%) when CALIOP- and CPR-derived cloud properties are used. The global annual mean of instantaneous surface downward shortwave irradiances also increases by 8.6 W m-2 (1.6%), indicating that the net surface irradiance increases when CALIOP- and CPR-derived cloud properties are used. Increasing the surface downward longwave irradiance is caused by larger cloud fractions (the global annual mean by 0.11, 0.04 excluding clouds with optical thickness less than 0.3) and lower cloud base heights (the global annual mean by 1.6 km). The increase of the surface downward longwave irradiance in the Arctic exceeds 10 W m-2 (˜4%) in winter because CALIOP and CPR detect more clouds in comparison with the cloud detection by the CERES cloud algorithm during polar night. The global annual mean surface downward longwave irradiance of 345.4 W m-2 is estimated by combining the modeled instantaneous surface longwave irradiance computed with CALIOP and CPR cloud profiles with the global annual mean longwave irradiance from the CERES product (AVG), which includes the diurnal variation of the irradiance. The estimated bias error is -1.5 W m-2 and the uncertainty is 6.9 W m-2. The uncertainty is predominately caused by the near-surface temperature and column water vapor amount uncertainties.

Climatic controls on the snowmelt hydrology of the northern Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, G.T.; Gray, S.T.; Ault, T.; Marsh, W.; Fagre, D.B.; Bunn, A.G.; Woodhouse, C.A.; Graumlich, L.J.

2011-01-01

The northern Rocky Mountains (NRMs) are a critical headwaters region with the majority of water resources originating from mountain snowpack. Observations showing declines in western U.S. snowpack have implications for water resources and biophysical processes in high-mountain environments. This study investigates oceanic and atmospheric controls underlying changes in timing, variability, and trends documented across the entire hydroclimatic-monitoring system within critical NRM watersheds. Analyses were conducted using records from 25 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 148 1 April snow course records, stream gauge records from 14 relatively unimpaired rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations. Over the past four decades, midelevation SNOTEL records show a tendency toward decreased snowpack with peak snow water equivalent (SWE) arriving and melting out earlier. Temperature records show significant seasonal and annual decreases in the number of frost days (days ???0??C) and changes in spring minimum temperatures that correspond with atmospheric circulation changes and surface-albedo feedbacks in March and April. Warmer spring temperatures coupled with increases in mean and variance of spring precipitation correspond strongly to earlier snowmeltout, an increased number of snow-free days, and observed changes in streamflow timing and discharge. The majority of the variability in peak and total annual snowpack and streamflow, however, is explained by season-dependent interannual-to-interdecadal changes in atmospheric circulation associated with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Over recent decades, increased spring precipitation appears to be buffering NRM total annual streamflow from what would otherwise be greater snow-related declines in hydrologic yield. Results have important implications for ecosystems, water resources, and long-lead-forecasting capabilities. ?? 2011 American Meteorological Society.

Inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between local sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Haikun; Wu, Liguang; Raga, G. B.

2018-02-01

This study documents the inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between the TC frequency (TCF) and the local sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1979-2014. An abrupt shift of the lagged relationship between them is observed to occur in 1998. Before the shift (1979-1997), a moderately positive correlation (0.35) between previous-year local SST and TCF is found, while a significantly negative correlation (- 0.71) is found since the shift (1998-2014). The inter-decadal change of the lagged relationship between TCF and local SST over the WNP is also accompanied by an inter-decadal change in the lagged inter-annual relationship between large-scale factors affecting TCs and local SST over the WNP. During 1998-2014, the previous-year local SST shows a significant negative correlation with the mid-level moisture and a significant positive correlation with the vertical wind shear over the main development region of WNP TC genesis. Almost opposite relationships are seen during 1979-1997, with a smaller magnitude of the correlation coefficients. These changes are consistent with the changes of the lagged inter-annual relationship between upper- and lower-level winds and local SST over the WNP. Analyses further suggests that the inter-decadal shift of the lagged inter-annual relationship between WNP TCF and local SST may be closely linked to the inter-decadal change of inter-annual SST transition over the tropical central-eastern Pacific associated with the climate regime shift in the late 1990s. Details on the underlying physical process need further investigation using observations and simulations.

Recent changes in solar irradiance and infrared irradiance related with air temperature and cloudiness at the King Sejong Station, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Y.; Kim, J.; Cho, H.; Lee, B.

2006-12-01

The polar region play a critical role in the surface energy balance and the climate system of the Earth. The important question in the region is that what is the role of the Antarctic atmospheric heat sink of global climate. Thus, this study shows the trends of global solar irradiance, infrared irradiance, air temperature and cloudiness measured at the King Sejong station, Antarctica, during the period of 1996-2004 and determines their relationship and variability of the surface energy balance. Annual average of solar radiation and cloudiness is 81.8 Wm-2 and 6.8 oktas and their trends show the decrease of -0.24 Wm-2yr-1(-0.30 %yr-1) and 0.02 oktas yr-1(0.30 %yr-1). The change of solar irradiance is directly related to change of cloudiness and decrease of solar irradiance presents radiative cooling at the surface. Monthly mean infrared irradiance, air temperature and specific humidity shows the decrease of -2.11 Wm^{- 2}yr-1(-0.75 %yr-1), -0.07 'Cyr-1(-5.15 %yr-1) and -0.044 gkg-1yr-1(-1.42 %yr-1), respectively. Annual average of the infrared irradiance is 279.9 Wm-2 and correlated with the air temperature, specific humidity and cloudiness. A multiple regression model for estimation of the infrared irradiance using the components has been developed. Effects of the components on the infrared irradiance changes show 52 %, 19 % and 10 % for air temperature, specific humidity and cloudiness, respectively. Among the components, air temperature has a great influence on infrared irradiance. Despite the increase of cloudiness, the decrease in the infrared irradiance is due to the decrease of air temperature and specific humidity which have a cooling effect. Therefore, the net radiation of the surface energy balance shows radiative cooling of negative 11-24 Wm^{- 2} during winter and radiative warming of positive 32-83 Wm-2 during the summer. Thus, the amount of shortage and surplus at the surface is mostly balanced by turbulent flux of sensible and latent heat.

Characteristics and Scenarios Projection of Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Hao, Zhenchun; Ju, Qin; Jiang, Weijuan; Zhu, Changjun

2013-01-01

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) presents twenty-two global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we evaluate the ability of 22 GCMs to reproduce temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing with ground observations for 1961~1900. The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and most models overestimate precipitation in most regions on the Tibetan Plateau. Only a few models (each 5 models for precipitation and temperature) appear roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations. Comparatively, GFCM21 and CGMR are able to better reproduce the observed annual temperature and precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the scenarios predicted by the GCMs vary greatly, all the models predict consistently increasing trends in temperature and precipitation in most regions in the Tibetan Plateau in the next 90 years. The results suggest that the temperature and precipitation will both increase in all three periods under different scenarios, with scenario A1 increasing the most and scenario A1B increasing the least. PMID:23970827

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is compensated by larger increases in sensible and latent heat fluxes out of the ocean. Although the net energy loss from the ocean surface increases by 0.8 W (per square meters), this is less than the interannual variability, and the increase may not indicate a long-term trend. The seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is significantly enhanced. The downward surface heat flux increases in summer (maximum 2 of 19 W per square meters or 23% in June) while the upward heat flux increases in winter (maximum of 16 W per square meters or 28% in November). The increased downward flux in summer is due to a combination of increases in absorbed solar and thermal radiation and smaller losses of sensible and latent heat. The increased heat loss in winter is due to increased sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn are due to reduced sea-ice cover. On the other hand, the seasonal cycle of surface air temperature is damped, as there is a large increase in winter temperature but little change in summer.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Land Surface Temperature in Fujian Province from 2001 TO 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Wang, X.; Ding, Z.

2018-04-01

Land surface temperature (LST) is an essential parameter in the physics of land surface processes. The spatiotemporal variations of LST on the Fujian province were studied using AQUA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer LST data. Considering the data gaps in remotely sensed LST products caused by cloud contamination, the Savitzky-Golay (S-G) filter method was used to eliminate the influence of cloud cover and to describe the periodical signals of LST. Observed air temperature data from 27 weather stations were employed to evaluate the fitting performance of the S-G filter method. Results indicate that S-G can effectively fit the LST time series and remove the influence of cloud cover. Based on the S-G-derived result, Spatial and temporal Variations of LST in Fujian province from 2001 to 2015 are analysed through slope analysis. The results show that: 1) the spatial distribution of annual mean LST generally exhibits consistency with altitude in the study area and the average of LST was much higher in the east than in the west. 2) The annual mean temperature of LST declines slightly among 15 years in Fujian. 3) Slope analysis reflects the spatial distribution characteristics of LST changing trend in Fujian.Improvement areas of LST are mainly concentrated in the urban areas of Fujian, especially in the eastern urban areas. Apparent descent areas are mainly distributed in the area of Zhangzhou and eastern mountain area.

Using Radar, Lidar and Radiometer Data from NSA and SHEBA to Quantify Cloud Property Effects on the Surface Heat Budget in the Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janet Intrieri; Mathhew Shupe

2005-01-01

Cloud and radiation data from two distinctly different Arctic areas are analyzed to study the differences between coastal Alaskan and open Arctic Ocean region clouds and their respective influence on the surface radiation budget. The cloud and radiation datasets were obtained from (1) the DOE North Slope of Alaska (NSA) facility in the coastal town of Barrow, Alaska, and (2) the SHEBA field program, which was conducted from an icebreaker frozen in, and drifting with, the sea-ice for one year in the Western Arctic Ocean. Radar, lidar, radiometer, and sounding measurements from both locations were used to produce annual cyclesmore » of cloud occurrence and height, atmospheric temperature and humidity, surface longwave and shortwave broadband fluxes, surface albedo, and cloud radiative forcing. In general, both regions revealed a similar annual trend of cloud occurrence fraction with minimum values in winter (60-75%) and maximum values during spring, summer and fall (80-90%). However, the annual average cloud occurrence fraction for SHEBA (76%) was lower than the 6-year average cloud occurrence at NSA (92%). Both Arctic areas also showed similar annual cycle trends of cloud forcing with clouds warming the surface through most of the year and a period of surface cooling during the summer, when cloud shading effects overwhelm cloud greenhouse effects. The greatest difference between the two regions was observed in the magnitude of the cloud cooling effect (i.e., shortwave cloud forcing), which was significantly stronger at NSA and lasted for a longer period of time than at SHEBA. This is predominantly due to the longer and stronger melt season at NSA (i.e., albedo values that are much lower coupled with Sun angles that are somewhat higher) than the melt season observed over the ice pack at SHEBA. Longwave cloud forcing values were comparable between the two sites indicating a general similarity in cloudiness and atmospheric temperature and humidity structure between the two regions.« less

Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys: 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J.; Wainwright, H. M.; Graham, D.; Torn, M. S.

2017-12-01

Microtopographic variation that develops among features (troughs, rims, and centers) within polygonal landforms of coastal arctic tundra strongly affects movement of surface water and snow and thereby affects soil water contents (θ) and active layer depth (ALD). Spatial variation in ALD among these features may exceed interannual variation in ALD caused by changes in climate and so needs to be represented in projections of changes in arctic ALD. In this study, increases in near-surface θ with decreasing surface elevation among polygon features at the Barrow Experimental Observatory (BEO) were modeled from topographic effects on redistribution of surface water and snow and from lateral water exchange with a subsurface water table during a model run from 1981 to 2015. These increases in θ caused increases in thermal conductivity that in turn caused increases in soil heat fluxes and hence in ALD of up to 15 cm with lower versus higher surface elevation which were consistent with increases measured at BEO. The modeled effects of θ caused interannual variation in maximum ALD that compared well with measurements from 1985 to 2015 at the Barrow Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site (R2 = 0.61, RMSE = 0.03 m). For higher polygon features, interannual variation in ALD was more closely associated with annual precipitation than mean annual temperature, indicating that soil wetting from increases in precipitation may hasten permafrost degradation beyond that caused by soil warming from increases in air temperature. This degradation may be more rapid if increases in precipitation cause sustained wetting in higher features.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

PubMed Central

Roberts, James J.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans. PMID:28683083

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James J.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Schmidt, Travis S.; Walters, David M.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change.

PubMed

Roberts, James J; Fausch, Kurt D; Schmidt, Travis S; Walters, David M

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Twenty Years of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Imagery around Australia: Inter-Annual and Annual Variability

PubMed Central

Foster, Scott D.; Griffin, David A.; Dunstan, Piers K.

2014-01-01

The physical climate defines a significant portion of the habitats in which biological communities and species reside. It is important to quantify these environmental conditions, and how they have changed, as this will inform future efforts to study many natural systems. In this article, we present the results of a statistical summary of the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) time-series data for the waters surrounding Australia, from 1993 to 2013. We partition variation in the SST series into annual trends, inter-annual trends, and a number of components of random variation. We utilise satellite data and validate the statistical summary from these data to summaries of data from long-term monitoring stations and from the global drifter program. The spatially dense results, available as maps from the Australian Oceanographic Data Network's data portal (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=51805), show clear trends that associate with oceanographic features. Noteworthy oceanographic features include: average warming was greatest off southern West Australia and off eastern Tasmania, where the warming was around 0.6°C per decade for a twenty year study period, and insubstantial warming in areas dominated by the East Australian Current, but this area did exhibit high levels of inter-annual variability (long-term trend increases and decreases but does not increase on average). The results of the analyses can be directly incorporated into (biogeographic) models that explain variation in biological data where both biological and environmental data are on a fine scale. PMID:24988444

Changing climates, changing forests: A western North American perspective

Treesearch

Christopher J. Fettig; Mary L. Reid; Barbara J. Bentz; Sanna Sevanto; David L. Spittlehouse; T. Wang

2013-01-01

The Earth’s mean surface air temperature has warmed by ~1C over the last 100 years and is projected to increase at a faster rate in the future, accompanied by changes in precipitation patterns and increases in the occurrence of extreme weather events. In western North America, projected increases in mean annual temperatures range from ~1−3.5C by the 2050s,...

Impact of Satellite Remote Sensing Data on Simulations of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We estimated surface salinity flux and solar penetration from satellite data, and performed model simulations to examine the impact of including the satellite estimates on temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen distributions on the Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) near the annual hypoxic zone. Rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) were used for the salinity flux, and the diffuse attenuation coefficient (Kd) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used for solar penetration. Improvements in the model results in comparison with in situ observations occurred when the two types of satellite data were included. Without inclusion of the satellite-derived surface salinity flux, realistic monthly variability in the model salinity fields was observed, but important inter-annual variability wasmissed. Without inclusion of the satellite-derived light attenuation, model bottom water temperatures were too high nearshore due to excessive penetration of solar irradiance. In general, these salinity and temperature errors led to model stratification that was too weak, and the model failed to capture observed spatial and temporal variability in water-column vertical stratification. Inclusion of the satellite data improved temperature and salinity predictions and the vertical stratification was strengthened, which improved prediction of bottom-water dissolved oxygen. The model-predicted area of bottom-water hypoxia on the

The Polar Regions and Martian Climate: Studies with a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, R. J.; Richardson, M. I.; Smith, M. D.

2003-01-01

Much of the interest in the polar regions centers on the fact that they likely contain the best record of Martian climate change on time scales from years to eons. This expectation is based upon the observed occurrence of weathering product deposits and volatile reservoirs that are coupled to the climate. Interpretation and understanding of these records requires understanding of the mechanisms that involve the exchange of dust, water, and carbon dioxide between the surface and atmosphere, and the atmospheric redistribution of these species. We will summarize our use of the GFDL Mars general circulation model (MGCM), to exploration aspects of the interaction between the global climate and the polar regions. For example, our studies have shown that while the northern polar cap is the dominant seasonal source for water, it can act as a net annual source or sink for water, depending upon the cap temperatures and the bulk humidity of the atmosphere. This behavior regulates the annual and global average humidity of the atmosphere, as the cap acts as a sink if the atmosphere is too wet and a source if it is too dry. We will then focus our presentation on the ability of the MGCM to simulate the observed diurnal variations of surface temperature. We are particularly interested in assessing the influence of dust aerosol and water ice clouds on simulated surface temperature and the comparison with observations. Surface thermal inertia and albedo are critical boundary inputs for MGCM simulations. Thermal inertia is also of intrinsic interest as it may be related to properties of the surface such as particle size and surface character.

Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo

2008-05-01

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.

Sustained Observations of Air-Sea Fluxes and Air-Sea Interaction at the Stratus Ocean Reference Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Robert

2014-05-01

Since October 2000, a well-instrumented surface mooring has been maintained some 1,500 km west of the coast of northern Chile, roughly in the location of the climatological maximum in marine stratus clouds. Statistically significant increases in wind stress and decreases in annual net air-sea heat flux and in latent heat flux have been observed. If the increased oceanic heat loss continues, the region will within the next decade change from one of net annual heat gain by the ocean to one of neat annual heat loss. Already, annual evaporation of about 1.5 m of sea water a year acts to make the warm, salty surface layer more dense. Of interest is examining whether or not increased oceanic heat loss has the potential to change the structure of the upper ocean and potentially remove the shallow warm, salty mixed layer that now buffers the atmosphere from the interior ocean. Insights into how that warm, shallow layer is formed and maintained come from looking at oceanic response to the atmosphere at diurnal tie scales. Restratification each spring and summer is found to depend upon the occurrence of events in which the trade winds decay, allowing diurnal warming in the near-surface ocean to occur, and when the winds return resulting in a net upward step in sea surface temperature. This process is proving hard to accurately model.

Processes Affecting the Annual Surface Energy Budget at High-Latitude Terrestrial Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persson, P. O. G.; Stone, R. S.; Grachev, A.; Matrosova, L.

2012-04-01

Instrumentation at four Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) sites (Barrow, Eureka, Alert, and Tiksi) have been enhanced in the past 6 years, including during the 2007-2008 IPY. Data from these sites are used to investigate the annual cycle of the surface energy budget (SEB), its coupling to atmospheric processes, and for Alert, its interannual variability. The comprehensive data sets are useful for showing interactions between the atmosphere, surface, and soil at high temporal resolution throughout the annual cycle. Processes that govern the SEB variability at each site are identified, and their impacts on the SEB are quantified. For example, mesoscale modulation of the SEB caused by forcing from the local terrain (downslope wind events) and coastlines (sea and land breezes) are significant at Alert and Eureka, with these processes affecting both radiative, turbulent, and ground heat flux terms in the SEB. Sub-seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric processes and SEB impact soil thermal structures, such as the depth and timing of the summer active layer. These analyses provide an improved understanding of the processes producing changes in surface and soil temperature, linking them through the SEB as affected by atmospheric processes.

Assessment of 21st century change of climate drivers to hydrological change across the Appalachian Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, R.; Zegre, N.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric water supply and demand largely drives the available water in the land surface. Precipitation (P) is the main supply of water to the land surface, while water demand largely depends on energy supply. Most frameworks that analyze climate change have limit their scope to changes in P and temperature as an indicator of energy. However, atmospheric water demand is not only dependent on temperature but also on variables such as solar radiation, air humidity and wind. For this study, we use the downscaled GCM outputs of (P) and calculate atmospheric water demand by aggregating solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind as potential evapotranspiration (EP) using the Penman-Monteith equation across the Appalachian Region. We investigate absolute changes in P and EP and changes in their relation or aridity index (AI=EP/P) to spatially determine places becoming wetter or drier. Moreover, we explore how their changes are distributed throughout the year, i.e. changes in the seasonality for P and widening of the intra-annual cycle of EP. The changes in seasonality can act as a further indicator of the partition of precipitation into evaporation or land surface water. Changes of precipitation that occur during summer are likely to be partitioned towards evapotranspiration whereas changes in winter are likely to be absorbed by land surface components of storage and runoff. Furthermore, widening of the intra-annual cycle of EP means that there will be water demand for a longer part of the year (earlier in spring and later in autumn). Our results show that places with lower mean annual temperature are likely to experience larger temperature changes. Regarding the AI, the Eastern Coasts of North and South Carolina, and Georgia as well as Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky are likely to get drier. The states of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and inland North and South Carolina and Alabama are likely to become wetter, with West Virginia having mixed results. Most of the changes in P are projected to take place during winter in Ohio and New York, whereas they are likely to happen in summer south of Ohio and Pennsylvania. These results highlight areas where water availability will change given projected changes in atmospheric water supply and demand across the Appalachian region.

The relationship between the ratio of strontium to calcium and sea-surface temperature in a modern Porites astreoides coral: Implications for using P. astreoides as a paleoclimate archive

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tess E. Busch,; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Richey, Julie N.; Stathakopoulos, Anastasios

2015-11-13

An inverse relationship has been demonstrated between water temperature and the ratio of strontium to calcium (Sr/Ca) in coral aragonite for a number of Pacific species of the genus Porites. This empirically determined relationship has been used to reconstruct past sea-surface temperature (SST) from modern and Holocene age coral archives. A study was conducted to investigate this relationship for Porites astreoides to determine the potential for using these corals as a paleotemperature archive in the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Skeletal aragonite from a P. astreoides colony growing offshore of the southeast coast of Florida was subsampled with a mean temporal resolution of 14 samples per year and analyzed for Sr/Ca. The resulting Sr/Ca time series yielded well-defined annual cycles that correspond to annual growth bands in the coral. Sr/Ca was regressed against a monthly SST record from C-MAN buoy station FWYF1 (located at Fowey Rocks, Florida), resulting in the following Sr/Ca-SST relationship: Sr/Ca = –0.040*SST + 10.128 (R = –0.77). A 10-year time series of Sr/Ca-derived SST yields annual cycles with a 10–12 degree Celsius seasonal amplitude, consistent with available local instrumental records. We conclude that Sr/Ca in Porites astreoides from the Caribbean/Atlantic region has high potential for developing subannually resolved modern and recent Holocene SST records.

Annual Cycle of Cloud Forcing of Surface Radiation Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilber, Anne C.; Smith, G. Louis; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Gupta, Shashi K.

2006-01-01

The climate of the Earth is determined by its balance of radiation. The incoming and outgoing radiation fluxes are strongly modulated by clouds, which are not well understood. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (Barkstrom and Smith, 1986) provided data from which the effects of clouds on radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) could be computed (Ramanathan, 1987). At TOA, clouds increase the reflected solar radiation, tending to cool the planet, and decrease the OLR, causing the planet to retain its heat (Ramanathan et al., 1989; Harrison et al., 1990). The effects of clouds on radiation fluxes are denoted cloud forcing. These shortwave and longwave forcings counter each other to various degrees, so that in the tropics the result is a near balance. Over mid and polar latitude oceans, cloud forcing at TOA results in large net loss of radiation. Here, there are large areas of stratus clouds and cloud systems associated with storms. These systems are sensitive to surface temperatures and vary strongly with the annual cycle. During winter, anticyclones form over the continents and move to the oceans during summer. This movement of major cloud systems causes large changes of surface radiation, which in turn drives the surface temperature and sensible and latent heat released to the atmosphere.

Improving Representations of Near-Surface Permafrost and Soil Temperature Profiles in the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Hamman, J.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Permafrost and seasonally frozen soils are a key characteristic of the terrestrial Arctic, and the fate of near-surface permafrost as a result of climate change is projected to have strong impacts on terrestrial biogeochemistry. The active layer thickness (ALT) is the layer of soil that freezes and thaws annually, and shifts in the depth of the ALT are projected to occur over large areas of the Arctic that are characterized by discontinuous permafrost. Faithful representation of permafrost in land models in climate models is a product of both soil dynamics and the coupling of air and soil temperatures. A common problem is a large bias in simulated ALT due to a model depth that is too shallow. Similarly, soil temperatures often show systematic biases, which lead to biases in air temperature due to poorly modeled air-soil temperature feedbacks in a coupled environment. In this study, we use the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), a fully-coupled regional earth system model that is run at a 50-km land/atmosphere resolution over a pan-Arctic domain and uses the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model as its land model. To understand what modeling decisions are necessary to accurately represent near-surface permafrost and soil temperature profiles, we perform a large number of RASM simulations with prescribed atmospheric forcings (e.g. VIC in standalone mode in RASM) while varying the model soil depth, thickness of soil moisture layers, number of soil layers and the distribution of soil nodes. We compare modeled soil temperatures and ALT to observations from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) network. CALM observations include annual ALT observations as well as daily soil temperature measurements at three soil depths for three sites in Alaska. In the future, we will use our results to inform our modeling of permafrost dynamics in fully-coupled RASM simulations.

Estimating changes to groundwater discharge temperature under altered climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manga, M.; Burns, E. R.; Zhu, Y.; Zhan, H.; Williams, C. F.; Ingebritsen, S.; Dunham, J.

2017-12-01

Changes in groundwater temperature resulting from climate-driven boundary conditions (recharge and land surface temperature) can be evaluated using new analytical solutions of the groundwater heat transport equation. These steady-state solutions account for land-surface boundary conditions, hydrology, and geothermal and viscous heating, and can be used to identify the key physical processes that control thermal responses of groundwater-fed ecosystems to climate change, in particular (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Also, existing transient solutions of conduction are compared with a new solution for advective transport of heat to estimate the timing of groundwater-discharge response to changes in recharge and land surface temperature. As an example, the new solutions are applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated Fall River Springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, high-elevation groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions, but as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes to the average annual land surface temperature will also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive timescale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the lower-elevation Fall River Springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

Shrubs tracing sea surface temperature--Calluna vulgaris on the Faroe Islands.

PubMed

Beil, Ilka; Buras, Allan; Hallinger, Martin; Smiljanić, Marko; Wilmking, Martin

2015-11-01

The climate of Central and Northern Europe is highly influenced by the North Atlantic Ocean due to heat transfer from lower latitudes. Detailed knowledge about spatio-temporal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in that region is thus of high interest for climate and environmental research. Because of the close relations between ocean and coastal climate and the climate sensitivity of plant growth, annual rings of woody plants in coastal regions might be used as a proxy for SST. We show here for the first time the proxy potential of the common and widespread evergreen dwarf shrub Calluna vulgaris (heather), using the Faroe Islands as our case study. Despite its small and irregular ring structure, the species seems suitable for dendroecological investigations. Ring width showed high and significant correlations with summer and winter air temperatures and SST. The C. vulgaris chronology from the Faroe Islands, placed directly within the North Atlantic Current, clearly reflects variations in summer SSTs over an area between Iceland and Scotland. Utilising shrubs like C. vulgaris as easy accessible and annually resolved proxies offers an interesting possibility for reconstruction of the coupled climate-ocean system at high latitudes.

Impact of Air Temperature and SST Variability on Cholera Incidence in Southeastern Africa, 1971-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paz, Shlomit

2010-05-01

The most important climatic parameter related to cholera outbreaks is the temperature, especially of the water bodies and the aquatic environment. This factor governs the survival and growth of V. cholerae, since it has a direct influence on its abundance in the environment, or alternatively, through its indirect influence on other aquatic organisms to which the pathogen is found to attach. Thus, the potential for cholera outbreaks may rise, parallel to the increase in ocean surface temperature. Indeed, recent studies indicate that global warming might create a favorable environment for V. cholerae and increase its incidence in vulnerable areas. Africa is vulnerable to climate variability. According to the recent IPCC report on Africa, the air temperature has indicated a significant warming trend since the 1960s. In recent years, most of the research into disease vectors in Africa related to climate variability has focused on malaria. The IPCC indicated that the need exists to examine the vulnerabilities and impacts of climatic factors on cholera in Africa. In light of this, the study uses a Poisson Regression Model to analyze the possible association between the cholera rates in southeastern Africa and the annual variability of air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) at regional and hemispheric scales, for the period 1971-2006. Data description is as follows: Number of cholera cases per year in Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and Mozambique. Source: WHO Global Health Atlas - cholera. Seasonal and annual temperature time series: Regional scale: a) Air temperature for southeastern Africa (30° E-36° E, 5° S-17° S), source: NOAA NCEP-NCAR; b) Sea surface temperature, for the western Indian Ocean (0-20° S, 40° E-45° E), source: NOAA, Kaplan SST dataset. Hemispheric scale (for the whole Southern Hemisphere): a) Air temperature anomaly; b) Sea surface temperature anomaly. Source: CRU, University of East Anglia. The following Poisson regression model is suggested: log{E(CHOLt)} = b0+b1×Xt+b2×Xt-1 where: CHOLt = the number of new cases of cholera in year t Xt / Xt-1 = the climate covariate measured in year t/t-1. (b0,b1) = the coefficients. A first order autocorrelation, AR1 = cor(Yt, Yt-1) is taken into account in the estimation using Generalized Estimating Equations. b1 and b2 quantify the association of CHOL and X, i.e. if Xt or Xt-1 increase by one unit, the mean of Yt is expected to increase in exp{b1} or exp{b2} times, respectively (multiplicative model). The results showed a significant exponential increase of cholera rates in humans during the study period, with an estimate of exp(b1)=1.08 (p-value = 0.02). Associations have been found between the annual increase of the air temperature in southeastern Africa and the cholera incidence in the same area. Linkages were found also for a wider scale, with the air temperature anomaly of the Southern Hemisphere, with an estimate of exp(b1)=1.18 (p-value = 0.04) and exp(b1)=1.26 (p-value = 0.006) for the previous year. Significant linkages were detected between the annual cholera rate and the annual western Indian Ocean' SST , with exp(b1) = 1.31 (p-value = 0.01) for the current year and exp(b1) = 1.23 (p-value = 0.05) for the previous year. Linkages were found also for the hemispheric scale, with the SST anomaly. The increase of global temperature may influence the temporal fluctuations of cholera, as well as potentially increasing the frequency and duration of its outbreaks. Despite future uncertainty, the climate variability has to be considered in predicting further cholera outbreaks in Africa. This may help to promote better, more efficient preparedness. For more details: Paz, S. 2010. Impact of Temperature Variability on Cholera Incidence in Southeastern Africa, 1971-2006. EcoHealth, in press.

An assessment of climate change in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico.

Treesearch

F. N. Scatena

1998-01-01

Change in the surface temperature of the coastal plain of 1 to 2C and/or a 11 to 33% change in annual rainfall could dramatically alter the distribution of forest vegetation within the Luquillo Experimental Forest(LEF) of northeastern Puerto Rico.

Impact of change in climate and policy from 1988 to 2007 on environmental and microbial variables at the time series station Boknis Eck, Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoppe, H.-G.; Giesenhagen, H. C.; Koppe, R.; Hansen, H.-P.; Gocke, K.

2013-07-01

Phytoplankton and bacteria are sensitive indicators of environmental change. The temporal development of these key organisms was monitored from 1988 to the end of 2007 at the time series station Boknis Eck in the western Baltic Sea. This period was characterized by the adaption of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changes in the environmental conditions caused by the conversion of the political system in the southern and eastern border states, accompanied by the general effects of global climate change. Measured variables were chlorophyll, primary production, bacteria number, -biomass and -production, glucose turnover rate, macro-nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity. Negative trends with time were recorded for chlorophyll, bacteria number, bacterial biomass and bacterial production, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, silicate, oxygen and salinity while temperature, pH, and the ratio between bacteria numbers and chlorophyll increased. Strongest reductions with time occurred for the annual maximum values, e.g. for chlorophyll during the spring bloom or for nitrate during winter, while the annual minimum values remained more stable. In deep water above sediment the negative trends of oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and bacterial variables as well as the positive trend of temperature were similar to those in the surface while the trends of salinity, ammonia and silicate were opposite to those in the surface. Decreasing oxygen, even in the surface layer, was of particular interest because it suggested enhanced recycling of nutrients from the deep hypoxic zones to the surface by vertical mixing. The long-term seasonal patterns of all variables correlated positively with temperature, except chlorophyll and salinity. Salinity correlated negatively with all bacterial variables (as well as precipitation) and positively with chlorophyll. Surprisingly, bacterial variables did not correlate with chlorophyll, which may be inherent with the time lag between the peaks of phytoplankton and bacteria during spring. Compared to the 20-yr averages of the environmental and microbial variables, the strongest negative deviations of corresponding annual averages were measured about ten years after political change for nitrate and bacterial secondary production (~ -60%), followed by chlorophyll (-50%) and bacterial biomass (-40%). Considering the circulation of surface currents in the Baltic Sea we interpret the observed patterns of the microbial variables at the Boknis Eck time series station as a consequence of the improved management of water resources after 1989 and - to a minor extent - the trends of the climate variables salinity and temperature.

Impact of change in climate and policy from 1988 to 2007 on environmental and microbial variables at the time series station Boknis Eck, Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoppe, H.-G.; Giesenhagen, H. C.; Koppe, R.; Hansen, H.-P.; Gocke, K.

2012-12-01

Phytoplankton and bacteria are sensitive indicators of environmental change. The temporal development of these key organisms was monitored from 1988 to the end of 2007 at the time series station Boknis Eck in the Western Baltic Sea. This period was characterized by the adaption of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changes in the environmental conditions caused by the collapse and conversion of the political system in the Southern and Eastern Border States, accompanied by the general effects of global climate change. Measured variables were chlorophyll, primary production, bacteria number, -biomass and -production, glucose turnover rate, macro-nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity. Negative trends with time were recorded for chlorophyll, the bacterial variables, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, silicate, oxygen and salinity while temperature, pH, and the ratio between bacteria numbers and chlorophyll increased. The strongest reductions with time occurred for the annual maximum values, e.g. for chlorophyll during the spring bloom or for nitrate during winter, while the annual minimum values remained more stable. In deep water above sediment the negative trends of oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and bacterial variables as well as the positive trend of temperature were similar to those in the surface while the trends of salinity, ammonia and silicate were opposite to those in the surface. Decreasing oxygen even in the surface layer was of particular interest because it suggested enhanced recycling of nutrients from the deep hypoxic zones to the surface by vertical mixing. In the long run all variables correlated positively with temperature, except chlorophyll and salinity. Salinity correlated negatively with all bacterial variables as well as precipitation and positively with chlorophyll. Surprisingly, bacterial variables did not correlate with chlorophyll which may be inherent with the time lag between the peaks of phytoplankton and bacteria during spring. Compared to the 20-yr averages of the environmental and microbial variables, the strongest negative deviations of corresponding annual averages were measured about ten years after political change for nitrate and bacterial secondary production (~ -60%), followed by chlorophyll (-50%) and bacterial biomass (-40%). Considering the circulation of surface currents in the Baltic Sea we conclude that the improved management of water resources after 1989 together with the trends of the climate variables salinity and temperature were responsible for the observed patterns of the microbial variables at the Boknis Eck time series station.

Greenland-Wide Seasonal Temperatures During the Last Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizert, C.; Keisling, B. A.; Box, J. E.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Sinclair, G.; DeConto, R. M.

2018-02-01

The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to climate forcing is of key importance in assessing its contribution to past and future sea level rise. Surface mass loss occurs during summer, and accounting for temperature seasonality is critical in simulating ice sheet evolution and in interpreting glacial landforms and chronologies. Ice core records constrain the timing and magnitude of climate change but are largely limited to annual mean estimates from the ice sheet interior. Here we merge ice core reconstructions with transient climate model simulations to generate Greenland-wide and seasonally resolved surface air temperature fields during the last deglaciation. Greenland summer temperatures peak in the early Holocene, consistent with records of ice core melt layers. We perform deglacial Greenland ice sheet model simulations to demonstrate that accounting for realistic temperature seasonality decreases simulated glacial ice volume, expedites the deglacial margin retreat, mutes the impact of abrupt climate warming, and gives rise to a clear Holocene ice volume minimum.

Late Paleocene Arctic Ocean shallow-marine temperatures from mollusc stable isotopes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bice, Karen L.; Arthur, Michael A.; Marincovich, Louie

1996-01-01

Late Paleocene high-latitude (80°N) Arctic Ocean shallow-marine temperatures are estimated from molluscan δ18O time series. Sampling of individual growth increments of two specimens of the bivalve Camptochlamys alaskensis provides a high-resolution record of shell stable isotope composition. The heavy carbon isotopic values of the specimens support a late Paleocene age for the youngest marine beds of the Prince Creek Formation exposed near Ocean Point, Alaska. The oxygen isotopic composition of regional freshwater runoff is estimated from the mean δ18O value of two freshwater bivalves collected from approximately coeval fluviatile beds. Over a 30 – 34‰ range of salinity, values assumed to represent the tolerance of C. alaskensis, the mean annual shallow-marine temperature recorded by these individuals is between 11° and 22°C. These values could represent maximum estimates of the mean annual temperature because of a possible warm-month bias imposed on the average δ18O value by slowing or cessation of growth in winter months. The amplitude of the molluscan δ18O time series probably records most of the seasonality in shallow-marine temperature. The annual temperature range indicated is approximately 6°C, suggesting very moderate high-latitude marine temperature seasonality during the late Paleocene. On the basis of analogy with modern Chlamys species, C. alaskensis probably inhabited water depths of 30–50 m. The seasonal temperature range derived from δ18O is therefore likely to be damped relative to the full range of annual sea surface temperatures. High-resolution sampling of molluscan shell material across inferred growth bands represents an important proxy record of seasonality of marine and freshwater conditions applicable at any latitude. If applied to other regions and time periods, the approach used here would contribute substantially to the paleoclimate record of seasonality.

[Temporal change in annual air temperature and heat island effect in a coastal city and an inland city at mid-latitude in China during 1956-1998].

PubMed

Chao, Lu-men; Sun, Jian-xin

2009-12-01

Temporal changes in air temperature and urban heat island (UHI) effects during 1956-1998 were compared between a coastal city, Ji' nan, and an inland city, Xi' an, which were similar in latitude, size and development. During 1956-1978, except that the annual mean minimum temperature in Ji' nan increased by 0.37 degrees C x 10 a(-1), the temperature variables in the two cities did not display any apparent trend. During 1979-1998, all temperature variables of the two cities showed an increasing trend. Comparing with that in Ji' nan, the increasing rate of annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean temperature in Xi' an was greater, but that of annual mean minimum temperature was smaller. In the two cities, heat island effect occurred during 1956-1978 but without any apparent trend, whereas during 1979-1998, this effect increased with time, especially in Xi' an where the annual mean minimum temperature and annual mean temperature increased by 0.22 degrees C x 10 a(-1) and 0.32 degrees C x 10 a(-1), respectively. Both the level and the inter-annual variation of the heat island effect were much greater in Ji' nan than in Xi' an, but the increasing rate of this effect was greater in Xi' an than in Ji' nan. Obvious differences were observed in the increasing rate of annual mean maximum air temperature, annual mean air temperature, and annual mean minimum temperature as well as the heat island effect in Ji' nan, whereas negligible differences were found in Xi' an. Among the three temperature variables, annual mean minimum temperature displayed the most obvious increasing trend and was most affected by heat island effect, while annual mean maximum temperature was most variable inter-annually. Geographical location not only affected the magnitude of urban warming, but also affected the mode of urban warming and the strength of heat island effect.

Satellite measurements reveal strong anisotropy in spatial coherence of climate variations over the Tibet Plateau.

PubMed

Chen, Deliang; Tian, Yudong; Yao, Tandong; Ou, Tinghai

2016-08-24

This study uses high-resolution, long-term satellite observations to evaluate the spatial scales of the climate variations across the Tibet Plateau (TP). Both land surface temperature and precipitation observations of more than 10 years were analysed with a special attention to eight existing ice-core sites in the TP. The temporal correlation for the monthly or annual anomalies between any two points decreases exponentially with their spatial distance, and we used the e-folding decay constant to quantify the spatial scales. We found that the spatial scales are strongly direction-dependent, with distinctive patterns in the west-east and south-north orientations, for example. Meanwhile, in the same directions the scales are largely symmetric backward and forward. Focusing on the west-east and south-north directions, we found the spatial coherence in the first is generally stronger than in the second. The annual surface temperature had typical spatial scales of 302-480 km, while the annual precipitation showed smaller scales of 111-182 km. The majority of the eight ice-core sites exhibit scales much smaller than the typical scales over the TP as a whole. These results provide important observational basis for the selection of appropriate downscaling strategies, deployment of climate-data collection networks, and interpreting paleoclimate reconstructions.

Satellite measurements reveal strong anisotropy in spatial coherence of climate variations over the Tibet Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Deliang; Tian, Yudong; Yao, Tandong; Ou, Tinghai

2016-08-01

This study uses high-resolution, long-term satellite observations to evaluate the spatial scales of the climate variations across the Tibet Plateau (TP). Both land surface temperature and precipitation observations of more than 10 years were analysed with a special attention to eight existing ice-core sites in the TP. The temporal correlation for the monthly or annual anomalies between any two points decreases exponentially with their spatial distance, and we used the e-folding decay constant to quantify the spatial scales. We found that the spatial scales are strongly direction-dependent, with distinctive patterns in the west-east and south-north orientations, for example. Meanwhile, in the same directions the scales are largely symmetric backward and forward. Focusing on the west-east and south-north directions, we found the spatial coherence in the first is generally stronger than in the second. The annual surface temperature had typical spatial scales of 302-480 km, while the annual precipitation showed smaller scales of 111-182 km. The majority of the eight ice-core sites exhibit scales much smaller than the typical scales over the TP as a whole. These results provide important observational basis for the selection of appropriate downscaling strategies, deployment of climate-data collection networks, and interpreting paleoclimate reconstructions.

Satellite measurements reveal strong anisotropy in spatial coherence of climate variations over the Tibet Plateau

PubMed Central

Chen, Deliang; Tian, Yudong; Yao, Tandong; Ou, Tinghai

2016-01-01

This study uses high-resolution, long-term satellite observations to evaluate the spatial scales of the climate variations across the Tibet Plateau (TP). Both land surface temperature and precipitation observations of more than 10 years were analysed with a special attention to eight existing ice-core sites in the TP. The temporal correlation for the monthly or annual anomalies between any two points decreases exponentially with their spatial distance, and we used the e-folding decay constant to quantify the spatial scales. We found that the spatial scales are strongly direction-dependent, with distinctive patterns in the west-east and south-north orientations, for example. Meanwhile, in the same directions the scales are largely symmetric backward and forward. Focusing on the west-east and south-north directions, we found the spatial coherence in the first is generally stronger than in the second. The annual surface temperature had typical spatial scales of 302–480 km, while the annual precipitation showed smaller scales of 111–182 km. The majority of the eight ice-core sites exhibit scales much smaller than the typical scales over the TP as a whole. These results provide important observational basis for the selection of appropriate downscaling strategies, deployment of climate-data collection networks, and interpreting paleoclimate reconstructions. PMID:27553388

Human influence on sub-regional surface air temperature change over India.

PubMed

Dileepkumar, R; AchutaRao, Krishna; Arulalan, T

2018-06-12

Human activities have been implicated in the observed increase in Global Mean Surface Temperature. Over regional scales where climatic changes determine societal impacts and drive adaptation related decisions, detection and attribution (D&A) of climate change can be challenging due to the greater contribution of internal variability, greater uncertainty in regionally important forcings, greater errors in climate models, and larger observational uncertainty in many regions of the world. We examine the causes of annual and seasonal surface air temperature (TAS) changes over sub-regions (based on a demarcation of homogeneous temperature zones) of India using two observational datasets together with results from a multimodel archive of forced and unforced simulations. Our D&A analysis examines sensitivity of the results to a variety of optimal fingerprint methods and temporal-averaging choices. We can robustly attribute TAS changes over India between 1956-2005 to anthropogenic forcing mostly by greenhouse gases and partially offset by other anthropogenic forcings including aerosols and land use land cover change.

Ice Core Records of West Greenland Melt and Climate Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graeter, K. A.; Osterberg, E. C.; Ferris, D. G.; Hawley, R. L.; Marshall, H. P.; Lewis, G.; Meehan, T.; McCarthy, F.; Overly, T.; Birkel, S. D.

2018-04-01

Remote sensing observations and climate models indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the late 1990s, mostly due to enhanced surface melting from rising summer temperatures. However, in situ observational records of GrIS melt rates over recent decades are rare. Here we develop a record of frozen meltwater in the west GrIS percolation zone preserved in seven firn cores. Quantifying ice layer distribution as a melt feature percentage (MFP), we find significant increases in MFP in the southernmost five cores over the past 50 years to unprecedented modern levels (since 1550 CE). Annual to decadal changes in summer temperatures and MFP are closely tied to changes in Greenland summer blocking activity and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures since 1870. However, summer warming of 1.2°C since 1870-1900, in addition to warming attributable to recent sea surface temperature and blocking variability, is a critical driver of high modern MFP levels.

NASA GISS Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidt, G.; Ruedy, R.; Persin, A

The NASA GISS Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) analysis provides a measure of the changing global surface temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880, when a reasonably global distribution of meteorological stations was established. The input data that the GISTEMP Team use for the analysis, collected by many national meteorological services around the world, are the adjusted data of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) Vs. 3 (this represents a change from prior use of unadjusted Vs. 2 data) (Peterson and Vose, 1997 and 1998), United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) data, and SCAR (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research) datamore » from Antarctic stations. Documentation of the basic analysis method is provided by Hansen et al. (1999), with several modifications described by Hansen et al. (2001). The GISS analysis is updated monthly, however CDIAC's presentation of the data here is updated annually.« less

Evaluation of thermal data for geologic applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahle, A. B.; Palluconi, F. D.; Levine, C. J.; Abrams, M. J.; Nash, D. B.; Alley, R. E.; Schieldge, J. P.

1982-01-01

Sensitivity studies using thermal models indicated sources of errors in the determination of thermal inertia from HCMM data. Apparent thermal inertia, with only simple atmospheric radiance corrections to the measured surface temperature, would be sufficient for most operational requirements for surface thermal inertia. Thermal data does have additional information about the nature of surface material that is not available in visible and near infrared reflectance data. Color composites of daytime temperature, nighttime temperature, and albedo were often more useful than thermal inertia images alone for discrimination of lithologic boundaries. A modeling study, using the annual heating cycle, indicated the feasibility of looking for geologic features buried under as much as a meter of alluvial material. The spatial resolution of HCMM data is a major limiting factor in the usefulness of the data for geologic applications. Future thermal infrared satellite sensors should provide spatial resolution comparable to that of the LANDSAT data.

Five centuries of climate change in Australia: the view from underground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollack, Henry N.; Huang, Shaopeng; Smerdon, Jason E.

2006-10-01

Fifty-seven borehole temperature profiles from across Australia are analysed to reconstruct a ground surface temperature history for the past five centuries. The five-hundred-year reconstruction is characterised by a temperature increase of approximately 0.5 K, with most of the warming occurring in the 19th and 20th centuries. The 17th century was the coolest interval of the five-century reconstruction. Comparison of the geothermal reconstruction to the Australian annual surface air temperature time series in their period of overlap shows excellent agreement. The full geothermal reconstruction also agrees well with the low-frequency component of dendroclimatic reconstructions from Tasmania and New Zealand. The warming of Australia over the past five centuries is only about half that experienced by the continents of the Northern Hemisphere in the same time interval. Copyright

Soil surface CO2 flux in a boreal black spruce fire chronosequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chuankuan; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Gower, Stith T.

2003-02-01

Understanding the effects of wildfire on the carbon (C) cycle of boreal forests is essential to quantifying the role of boreal forests in the global carbon cycle. Soil surface CO2 flux (Rs), the second largest C flux in boreal forests, is directly and indirectly affected by fire and is hypothesized to change during forest succession following fire. The overall objective of this study was to measure and model Rs for a black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] BSP) postfire chronosequence in northern Manitoba, Canada. The experiment design was a nested factorial that included two soil drainage classes (well and poorly drained) × seven postfire aged stands. Specific objectives were (1) to quantify the relationship between Rs and soil temperature for different aged boreal black spruce forests in well-drained and poorly drained soil conditions, (2) to examine Rs dynamics along postfire successional stands, and (3) to estimate annual soil surface CO2 flux for these ecosystems. Soil surface CO2 flux was significantly affected by soil drainage class (p = 0.014) and stand age (p = 0.006). Soil surface CO2 flux was positively correlated to soil temperature (R2 = 0.78, p < 0.001), but different models were required for each drainage class × aged stand combination. Soil surface CO2 flux was significantly greater at the well-drained than the poorly drained stands (p = 0.007) during growing season. Annual soil surface CO2 flux for the 1998, 1995, 1989, 1981, 1964, 1930, and 1870 burned stands averaged 226, 412, 357, 413, 350, 274, and 244 g C m-2 yr-1 in the well-drained stands and 146, 380, 300, 303, 256, 233, and 264 g C m-2 yr-1 in the poorly drained stands. Soil surface CO2 flux during the winter (from 1 November to 30 April) comprised from 5 to 19% of the total annual Rs. We speculate that the smaller soil surface CO2 flux in the recently burned than the older stands is mainly caused by decreased root respiration.

Soil surface CO2 flux in a boreal black spruce fire chronosequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chuankuan; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Gower, Stith T.

2002-02-01

Understanding the effects of wildfire on the carbon (C) cycle of boreal forests is essential to quantifying the role of boreal forests in the global carbon cycle. Soil surface CO2 flux (Rs), the second largest C flux in boreal forests, is directly and indirectly affected by fire and is hypothesized to change during forest succession following fire. The overall objective of this study was to measure and model Rs for a black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] BSP) postfire chronosequence in northern Manitoba, Canada. The experiment design was a nested factorial that included two soil drainage classes (well and poorly drained) × seven postfire aged stands. Specific objectives were (1) to quantify the relationship between Rs and soil temperature for different aged boreal black spruce forests in well-drained and poorly drained soil conditions, (2) to examine Rs dynamics along postfire successional stands, and (3) to estimate annual soil surface CO2 flux for these ecosystems. Soil surface CO2 flux was significantly affected by soil drainage class (p = 0.014) and stand age (p = 0.006). Soil surface CO2 flux was positively correlated to soil temperature (R2 = 0.78, p < 0.001), but different models were required for each drainage class × aged stand combination. Soil surface CO2 flux was significantly greater at the well-drained than the poorly drained stands (p = 0.007) during growing season. Annual soil surface CO2 flux for the 1998, 1995, 1989, 1981, 1964, 1930, and 1870 burned stands averaged 226, 412, 357, 413, 350, 274, and 244 g C m-2 yr-1 in the well-drained stands and 146, 380, 300, 303, 256, 233, and 264 g C m-2 yr-1 in the poorly drained stands. Soil surface CO2 flux during the winter (from 1 November to 30 April) comprised from 5 to 19% of the total annual Rs. We speculate that the smaller soil surface CO2 flux in the recently burned than the older stands is mainly caused by decreased root respiration.

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, uppermore » basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.« less

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; ...

2017-04-24

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, uppermore » basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.« less

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; Manga, Michael; Williams, Colin F.; Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-04-01

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, upper basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Erick; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; Manga, Michael; Williams, Colin F.; Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-01-01

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, upper basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

Exchange of Groundwater and Surface-Water Mediated by Permafrost Response to Seasonal and Long Term Air Temperature Variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ge, Shemin; McKenzie, Jeffrey; Voss, Clifford; Wu, Qingbai

2011-01-01

Permafrost dynamics impact hydrologic cycle processes by promoting or impeding groundwater and surface water exchange. Under seasonal and decadal air temperature variations, permafrost temperature changes control the exchanges between groundwater and surface water. A coupled heat transport and groundwater flow model, SUTRA, was modified to simulate groundwater flow and heat transport in the subsurface containing permafrost. The northern central Tibet Plateau was used as an example of model application. Modeling results show that in a yearly cycle, groundwater flow occurs in the active layer from May to October. Maximum groundwater discharge to the surface lags the maximum subsurface temperature by two months. Under an increasing air temperature scenario of 3?C per 100 years, over the initial 40-year period, the active layer thickness can increase by three-fold. Annual groundwater discharge to the surface can experience a similar three-fold increase in the same period. An implication of these modeling results is that with increased warming there will be more groundwater flow in the active layer and therefore increased groundwater discharge to rivers. However, this finding only holds if sufficient upgradient water is available to replenish the increased discharge. Otherwise, there will be an overall lowering of the water table in the recharge portion of the catchment.

The temperature characteristics of biological active period of the peat soils of Bakchar swamp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiselev, M. V.; Dyukarev, E. A.; Voropay, N. N.

2018-01-01

The results of the study of the peculiarities of the temperature regime in the five basic ecosystems of oligotrophic bogs in the south taiga zone of Western Siberia in 2011-2016 are presented. The soil temperature regime was studied using the atmospheric-soil measuring complex at different depths from surface to 240 cm. All sites were divided into two groups according the bog water level: flooded sites (hollow and open fen) and drained sites (ridge, tall and low ryam). Waterlogged sites are better warmed in the summer period, and slowly freeze in the winter period. The analysis of the annual cycle of temperature showed that the maximum surface temperature is observed in July. The minimum temperature on the surface observed in February or January. The greatest temperature gradient was recorded in the upper 2 cm layer. The gradient at the open fen was -2 °C·cm-1 in February and 1.1 °C·cm-1 in October. The peak of formation of the seasonally frozen layer occurs at the end of autumn, beginning of winter. The degradation of the seasonally frozen layer was observed both from top and bottom, but degradation from the top is faster.

The Climatological Annual Cycle of Satellite-derived Phytoplankton Pigments in the Alboran Sea: A Physical Interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garcia-Gorriz, E.; Carr, M. E.

1998-01-01

The circulation and upwelling processes (coastal and gyre-induced) that control the phytoplankton distribution in the Alboran sea are examined by analyzing monthly climatological patterns of Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) pigment concentrations, sea surface temperatures, winds, and seasonal geostrophic fields.

Cabauw experimental results from the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, T.H.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Milly, P.C.D.; Pitman, A.J.; Beljaars, A.C.M.; Polcher, J.; Abramopoulos, F.; Boone, A.; Chang, S.; Chen, F.; Dai, Y.; Desborough, C.E.; Dickinson, R.E.; Dumenil, L.; Ek, M.; Garratt, J.R.; Gedney, N.; Gusev, Y.M.; Kim, J.; Koster, R.; Kowalczyk, E.A.; Laval, K.; Lean, J.; Lettenmaier, D.; Liang, X.; Mahfouf, Jean-Francois; Mengelkamp, H.-T.; Mitchell, Ken; Nasonova, O.N.; Noilhan, J.; Robock, A.; Rosenzweig, C.; Schaake, J.; Schlosser, C.A.; Schulz, J.-P.; Shao, Y.; Shmakin, A.B.; Verseghy, D.L.; Wetzel, P.; Wood, E.F.; Xue, Y.; Yang, Z.-L.; Zeng, Q.

1997-01-01

In the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2a experiment, meteorological data for the year 1987 from Cabauw, the Netherlands, were used as inputs to 23 land-surface flux schemes designed for use in climate and weather models. Schemes were evaluated by comparing their outputs with long-term measurements of surface sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere and the ground, and of upward longwave radiation and total net radiative fluxes, and also comparing them with latent heat fluxes derived from a surface energy balance. Tuning of schemes by use of the observed flux data was not permitted. On an annual basis, the predicted surface radiative temperature exhibits a range of 2 K across schemes, consistent with the range of about 10 W m-2 in predicted surface net radiation. Most modeled values of monthly net radiation differ from the observations by less than the estimated maximum monthly observational error (±10 W m-2). However, modeled radiative surface temperature appears to have a systematic positive bias in most schemes; this might be explained by an error in assumed emissivity and by models' neglect of canopy thermal heterogeneity. Annual means of sensible and latent heat fluxes, into which net radiation is partitioned, have ranges across schemes of 30 W m-2 and 25 W m-2, respectively. Annual totals of evapotranspiration and runoff, into which the precipitation is partitioned, both have ranges of 315 mm. These ranges in annual heat and water fluxes were approximately halved upon exclusion of the three schemes that have no stomatal resistance under non-water-stressed conditions. Many schemes tend to underestimate latent heat flux and overestimate sensible heat flux in summer, with a reverse tendency in winter. For six schemes, root-mean-square deviations of predictions from monthly observations are less than the estimated upper bounds on observation errors (5 W m-2 for sensible heat flux and 10 W m-2 for latent heat flux). Actual runoff at the site is believed to be dominated by vertical drainage to groundwater, but several schemes produced significant amounts of runoff as overland flow or interflow. There is a range across schemes of 184 mm (40% of total pore volume) in the simulated annual mean root-zone soil moisture. Unfortunately, no measurements of soil moisture were available for model evaluation. A theoretical analysis suggested that differences in boundary conditions used in various schemes are not sufficient to explain the large variance in soil moisture. However, many of the extreme values of soil moisture could be explained in terms of the particulars of experimental setup or excessive evapotranspiration.

Cabauw Experimental Results from the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, T. H.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Milly, P. C. D.; Pitman, A. J.; Beljaars, A. C. M.; Polcher, J.; Abramopoulos, F.; Boone, A.; Chang, S.; Chen, F.; Dai, Y.; Desborough, C. E.; Dickinson, R. E.; Dümenil, L.; Ek, M.; Garratt, J. R.; Gedney, N.; Gusev, Y. M.;  Kim, J.;  Koster, R.;  Kowalczyk, E. A.;  Laval, K.;  Lean, J.;  Lettenmaier, D.;  Liang, X.;  Mahfouf, J.-F.;  Mengelkamp, H.-T.;  Mitchell, K.;  Nasonova, O. N.;  Noilhan, J.;  Robock, A.;  Rosenzweig, C.;  Schaake, J.;  Schlosser, C. A.;  Schulz, J.-P.;  Shao, Y.;  Shmakin, A. B.;  Verseghy, D. L.;  Wetzel, P.;  Wood, E. F.;  Xue, Y.;  Yang, Z.-L.;  Zeng, Q.

1997-06-01

In the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2a experiment, meteorological data for the year 1987 from Cabauw, the Netherlands, were used as inputs to 23 land-surface flux schemes designed for use in climate and weather models. Schemes were evaluated by comparing their outputs with long-term measurements of surface sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere and the ground, and of upward longwave radiation and total net radiative fluxes, and also comparing them with latent heat fluxes derived from a surface energy balance. Tuning of schemes by use of the observed flux data was not permitted. On an annual basis, the predicted surface radiative temperature exhibits a range of 2 K across schemes, consistent with the range of about 10 W m2 in predicted surface net radiation. Most modeled values of monthly net radiation differ from the observations by less than the estimated maximum monthly observational error (±10 W m2). However, modeled radiative surface temperature appears to have a systematic positive bias in most schemes; this might be explained by an error in assumed emissivity and by models' neglect of canopy thermal heterogeneity. Annual means of sensible and latent heat fluxes, into which net radiation is partitioned, have ranges across schemes of30 W m2 and 25 W m2, respectively. Annual totals of evapotranspiration and runoff, into which the precipitation is partitioned, both have ranges of 315 mm. These ranges in annual heat and water fluxes were approximately halved upon exclusion of the three schemes that have no stomatal resistance under non-water-stressed conditions. Many schemes tend to underestimate latent heat flux and overestimate sensible heat flux in summer, with a reverse tendency in winter. For six schemes, root-mean-square deviations of predictions from monthly observations are less than the estimated upper bounds on observation errors (5 W m2 for sensible heat flux and 10 W m2 for latent heat flux). Actual runoff at the site is believed to be dominated by vertical drainage to groundwater, but several schemes produced significant amounts of runoff as overland flow or interflow. There is a range across schemes of 184 mm (40% of total pore volume) in the simulated annual mean root-zone soil moisture. Unfortunately, no measurements of soil moisture were available for model evaluation. A theoretical analysis suggested that differences in boundary conditions used in various schemes are not sufficient to explain the large variance in soil moisture. However, many of the extreme values of soil moisture could be explained in terms of the particulars of experimental setup or excessive evapotranspiration.

Evaluating the Sonic Layer Depth Relative to the Mixed Layer Depth

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-24

upper ocean to trap acoustic energy in a surface duct while MLD characterizes upper ocean mixing. The SLD is computed from temperature and salinity...and compared over the annual cycle. The SLD characterizes the potential of the upper ocean to trap acoustic energy in a surface duct while MLD...exists a tropical cyclone formation [e.g., Mao et al., 2000], to Minimum acoustic Cutoff Frequency (MCF) above which phytoplankton bloom critical depth

An atlas of monthly mean distributions of SSMI surface wind speed, ARGOS buoy drift, AVHRR/2 sea surface temperature, and ECMWF surface wind components during 1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Knauss, W.; Brown, O.; Wentz, F.

1993-01-01

The following monthly mean global distributions for 1990 are proposed with a common color scale and geographical map: 10-m height wind speed estimated from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) on a United States (US) Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft; sea surface temperature estimated from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR/2) on a U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) spacecraft; Cartesian components of free drifting buoys which are tracked by the ARGOS navigation system on NOAA satellites; and Cartesian components on the 10-m height wind vector computed by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). Charts of monthly mean value, sampling distribution, and standard deviation values are displayed. Annual mean distributions are displayed.

An atlas of monthly mean distributions of SSMI surface wind speed, ARGOS buoy drift, AVHRR/2 sea surface temperature, and ECMWF surface wind components during 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Knauss, W.; Brown, O.; Wentz, F.

1993-01-01

The following monthly mean global distributions for 1991 are presented with a common color scale and geographical map: 10-m height wind speed estimated from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) on a United States Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft; sea surface temperature estimated from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR/2) on a U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) spacecraft; Cartesian components of free-drifting buoys which are tracked by the ARGOS navigation system on NOAA satellites; and Cartesian components of the 10-m height wind vector computed by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). Charts of monthly mean value, sampling distribution, and standard deviation value are displayed. Annual mean distributions are displayed.

Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys : 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J.

Microtopographic variation that develops among features (troughs, rims, and centers) within polygonal landforms of coastal arctic tundra strongly affects movement of surface water and snow and thereby affects soil water contents (θ) and active layer depth (ALD). Spatial variation in ALD among these features may exceed interannual variation in ALD caused by changes in climate and so needs to be represented in projections of changes in arctic ALD. For this study, increases in near-surface θ with decreasing surface elevation among polygon features at the Barrow Experimental Observatory (BEO) were modeled from topographic effects on redistribution of surface water and snowmore » and from lateral water exchange with a subsurface water table during a model run from 1981 to 2015. These increases in θ caused increases in thermal conductivity that in turn caused increases in soil heat fluxes and hence in ALD of up to 15 cm with lower versus higher surface elevation which were consistent with increases measured at BEO. The modeled effects of θ caused interannual variation in maximum ALD that compared well with measurements from 1985 to 2015 at the Barrow Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site (R 2 = 0.61, RMSE = 0.03 m). For higher polygon features, interannual variation in ALD was more closely associated with annual precipitation than mean annual temperature, indicating that soil wetting from increases in precipitation may hasten permafrost degradation beyond that caused by soil warming from increases in air temperature. This degradation may be more rapid if increases in precipitation cause sustained wetting in higher features.« less

Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys : 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

DOE PAGES

Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J.; ...

2017-11-17

Microtopographic variation that develops among features (troughs, rims, and centers) within polygonal landforms of coastal arctic tundra strongly affects movement of surface water and snow and thereby affects soil water contents (θ) and active layer depth (ALD). Spatial variation in ALD among these features may exceed interannual variation in ALD caused by changes in climate and so needs to be represented in projections of changes in arctic ALD. For this study, increases in near-surface θ with decreasing surface elevation among polygon features at the Barrow Experimental Observatory (BEO) were modeled from topographic effects on redistribution of surface water and snowmore » and from lateral water exchange with a subsurface water table during a model run from 1981 to 2015. These increases in θ caused increases in thermal conductivity that in turn caused increases in soil heat fluxes and hence in ALD of up to 15 cm with lower versus higher surface elevation which were consistent with increases measured at BEO. The modeled effects of θ caused interannual variation in maximum ALD that compared well with measurements from 1985 to 2015 at the Barrow Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site (R 2 = 0.61, RMSE = 0.03 m). For higher polygon features, interannual variation in ALD was more closely associated with annual precipitation than mean annual temperature, indicating that soil wetting from increases in precipitation may hasten permafrost degradation beyond that caused by soil warming from increases in air temperature. This degradation may be more rapid if increases in precipitation cause sustained wetting in higher features.« less

Revisiting the global surface energy budgets with maximum-entropy-production model of surface heat fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shih-Yu; Deng, Yi; Wang, Jingfeng

2017-09-01

The maximum-entropy-production (MEP) model of surface heat fluxes, based on contemporary non-equilibrium thermodynamics, information theory, and atmospheric turbulence theory, is used to re-estimate the global surface heat fluxes. The MEP model predicted surface fluxes automatically balance the surface energy budgets at all time and space scales without the explicit use of near-surface temperature and moisture gradient, wind speed and surface roughness data. The new MEP-based global annual mean fluxes over the land surface, using input data of surface radiation, temperature data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (NASA CERES) supplemented by surface specific humidity data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), agree closely with previous estimates. The new estimate of ocean evaporation, not using the MERRA reanalysis data as model inputs, is lower than previous estimates, while the new estimate of ocean sensible heat flux is higher than previously reported. The MEP model also produces the first global map of ocean surface heat flux that is not available from existing global reanalysis products.

Energy exchange of an alpine grassland on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Lunyu; Zhang, Yu; Lv, Shihua; Wang, Shaoying

2014-05-01

The seasonal variability in the surface energy exchange of an alpine grassland on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was investigated using eddy covariance measurements. Based on the change of air temperature and the seasonal distribution of precipitation, a winter season and wet season were identified, which were separated by transitional periods. For each period, the surface energy exchange exhibited distinct patterns. Daily mean net radiation (Rn) was almost always positive throughout the year. Sensible heat flux (H) was almost always greater than latent heat flux (LE) during the winter season, and LE was always greater than H during the wet season. Ground heat flux (G0) was relatively low throughout the year. The annual mean net radiation was about 39% of the annual mean solar radiation (Rs). Rn was relatively low during the winter season (21% of Rs) compared to the wet season (55% of Rs), which can be explained by the difference in surface albedo and moisture condition between the two seasons. H and LE had different roles during different periods of the year. Annually, the main consumer of net radiation was LE. During the winter season, H was dominant because of the frozen soil condition and lack of precipitation. During the wet season LE was dominant due to increased temperature and sufficient rainfall coupling with vegetation development. LE was strongly controlled by Rn from June to August though surface conductance (gc) and soil water content (θv) were high. During the transitional periods, H and LE were nearly equally partitioned in the energy balance. The results also suggested that the freeze-thaw condition of soil and the seasonal distribution of precipitation had important impacts on the energy exchange in this alpine grassland.

Effects of straw and plastic film mulching on greenhouse gas emissions in Loess Plateau, China: A field study of 2 consecutive wheat-maize rotation cycles.

PubMed

Chen, Haixin; Liu, Jingjing; Zhang, Afeng; Chen, Jing; Cheng, Gong; Sun, Benhua; Pi, Xiaomin; Dyck, Miles; Si, Bingcheng; Zhao, Ying; Feng, Hao

2017-02-01

Mulching practices have long been used to modify the soil temperature and moisture conditions and thus potentially improve crop production in dryland agriculture, but few studies have focused on mulching effects on soil gaseous emissions. We monitored annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the regime of straw and plastic film mulching using a closed chamber method on a typical winter-wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv Xiaoyan 22) and summer-maize (Zea mays L. cv Qinlong 11) rotation field over two-year period in the Loess Plateau, northwestern China. The following four field treatments were included: T1 (control, no mulching), T2 (4000kgha -1 wheat straw mulching, covering 100% of soil surface), T3 (half plastic film mulching, covering 50% of soil surface), and T4 (complete plastic film mulching, covering 100% of soil surface). Compared with the control, straw mulching decreased soil temperature and increased soil moisture, whereas plastic film mulching increased both soil temperature and moisture. Accordingly, straw mulching increased annual crop yields over both cycles, while plastic film mulching significantly enhanced annual crop yield over cycle 2. Compared to the no-mulching treatment, all mulching treatments increased soil CO 2 emission over both cycles, and straw mulching increased soil CH 4 absorption over both cycles, but patterns of soil N 2 O emissions under straw or film mulching are not consistent. Overall, compared to T1, annual GHG intensity was significantly decreased by 106%, 24% and 26% under T2, T3 and T4 over cycle 1, respectively; and by 20%, 51% and 29% under T2, T3 and T4 over cycle 2, respectively. Considering the additional cost and environmental issues associated with plastic film mulching, the application of straw mulching might achieve a balance between food security and GHG emissions in the Chinese Loess Plateau. However, further research is required to investigate the perennial influence of different mulching applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lake Energy Budget and Temperature Profiles Under Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofgren, B. M.; Xiao, C.

2017-12-01

Future climates under higher concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to feature higher air and water temperatures, and shifts in surface heat fluxes. We investigate in greater detail the evolution of this in terms of the annual cycle of lake temperature profiles, stratification, and ice formation. Other work has found that, although shallower water promotes more rapid changes in surface water temperature within a season, change in surface water temperature across decades is more prominent in locations with greater water depth. Our simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its lake module, WRF-Lake, show a trend toward longer periods of summer stratification, both through earlier onset in the spring and later decay of stratification in the fall. They also show a general increase in temperature throughout the water column, but most pronounced near the surface during the summer. Likewise, ice duration is much shorter and more restricted to shallow embayments. High latent and sensible heat flux during the fall and winter are less intense but longer lasting under the future scenario. Sources of uncertainty are cumulative—actual future greenhouse gas concentrations, global sensitivity of climate change, cloud feedbacks, the combined formulation of the regional climate model (WRF) and its global driving model, and more.

An atlas of monthly mean distributions of SSMI surface wind speed, AVHRR/2 sea surface temperature, AMI surface wind velocity, TOPEX/POSEIDON sea surface height, and ECMWF surface wind velocity during 1993

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Fu, L.; Knauss, W.; Pihos, G.; Brown, O.; Freilich, M.; Wentz, F.

1995-01-01

The following monthly mean global distributions for 1993 are presented with a common color scale and geographical map: 10-m height wind speed estimated from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) on a United States (U.S.) Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft; sea surface temperature estimated from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR/2) on a U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite; 10-m height wind speed and direction estimated from the Active Microwave Instrument (AMI) on the European Space Agency (ESA) European Remote Sensing (ERS-1) satellite; sea surface height estimated from the joint U.S.-France Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/POSEIDON spacecraft; and 10-m height wind speed and direction produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). Charts of annual mean, monthly mean, and sampling distributions are displayed.

GCM Simulation of the Large-scale North American Monsoon Including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Walker, Gregory; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Sud, Yogesh; Atlas, Robert M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The geographic sources of water for the large-scale North American monsoon in a GCM are diagnosed using passive constituent tracers of regional water'sources (Water Vapor Tracers, WVT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office Finite Volume (FV) GCM was used to produce a 10-year simulation (1984 through 1993) including observed sea surface temperature. Regional and global WVT sources were defined to delineate the surface origin of water for precipitation in and around the North American i'vionsoon. The evolution of the mean annual cycle and the interannual variations of the monsoonal circulation will be discussed. Of special concern are the relative contributions of the local source (precipitation recycling) and remote sources of water vapor to the annual cycle and the interannual variation of warm season precipitation. The relationships between soil water, surface evaporation, precipitation and precipitation recycling will be evaluated.

GCM Simulation of the Large-Scale North American Monsoon Including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Walker, Gregory; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Sud, Yogesh; Atlas, Robert M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The geographic sources of water for the large scale North American monsoon in a GCM (General Circulation Model) are diagnosed using passive constituent tracers of regional water sources (Water Vapor Tracers, WVT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office Finite Volume (FV) GCM was used to produce a 10-year simulation (1984 through 1993) including observed sea surface temperature. Regional and global WVT sources were defined to delineate the surface origin of water for precipitation in and around the North American Monsoon. The evolution of the mean annual cycle and the interannual variations of the monsoonal circulation will be discussed. Of special concern are the relative contributions of the local source (precipitation recycling) and remote sources of water vapor to the annual cycle and the interannual variation of monsoonal precipitation. The relationships between soil water, surface evaporation, precipitation and precipitation recycling will be evaluated.

Seasonal gametogenesis of host sea anemone ( Entacmaea quadricolor) inhabiting Hong Kong waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, Ying; Zhang, Bin; Zhang, Zhifeng; Qiu, Jianwen

2015-02-01

Studying gonadal development of annual cycle can reveal the process of gametogenesis and reproductive period, and evaluate fertility and source utilization of a species. Host sea anemones are conspicuous members of tropical and subtropical reef ecosystems, but little is known about its biology including reproductive seasonality. Here we reported a one-year study on the gametogenesis and reproduction of host sea anemone ( Entacmaea quadricolor) inhabiting Hong Kong waters. E. quadricolor tissues were sampled in 12 occasions from 5 m and 15 m depths of water, respectively. Histological sectioning of the tissues showed that E. quadricolor was dioecious, and populational ratio of female to male was 1:1.6. The gonadal development was asynchronous within an annual cycle, which included proliferating, growing, maturing, spawning, and resting stages. The spawning occurred between August and October when surface seawater temperature reached the annual maximum (28°C), suggesting that temperature is an important factor modulating the gonadal development and mature of E. quadricolor.

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

Chemistry Division: Annual progress report for period ending March 31, 1987

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1987-08-01

This report is divided into the following sections: coal chemistry; aqueous chemistry at high temperatures and pressures; geochemistry of crustal processes to high temperatures and pressures; chemistry of advanced inorganic materials; structure and dynamics of advanced polymeric materials; chemistry of transuranium elements and compounds; separations chemistry; reactions and catalysis in molten salts; surface science related to heterogeneous catalysis; electron spectroscopy; chemistry related to nuclear waste disposal; computational modeling of security document printing; and special topics. (DLC)

Annual and Semi-Annual Temperature Oscillations in the Upper Mesosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niciejewski, R. J.; Killeen, T. L.

1995-01-01

Fourier transform spectrometer observations of the mesosphere have been performed at the University of Michigan (latitude: 42.5 N) on a long term basis. A database of near infrared Meinel hydroxyl spectra has been accumulated from which rotational temperatures have been determined. Harmonic analysis of one-day averaged temperatures for the period 1992.0 to 1994.5 has shown a distinct annual and semi-annual variation. Subsequent fitting of a five term periodic function characterizing the annual and semi-annual temperature oscillations to the daily averaged temperatures was performed. The resultant mean temperature and the amplitudes and phases of the annual and semi-annual variations are shown to coincide with an emission height slightly above 85 km which is consistent with the mean rocket derived altitude for peak nocturnal hydroxyl emission.

Late Quaternary surface circulation in the east equatorial South Atlantic: Evidence from Alkenone sea surface temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Ralph R.; Müller, Peter J.; Ruhland, GöTz

1995-04-01

Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge records of past sea surface temperatures (SST) derived from the alkenone Uk37 index are used to reconstruct the surface circulation in the east equatorial South Atlantic for the last 200,000 years. Comparison of SST estimates from surface sediments between 5° and 20°S with modern SST data suggests that the alkenone temperatures represent annual mean values of the surface mixed layer. Alkenone-derived temperatures for the warm climatic maxima of the Holocene and the penultimate interglacial are 1 to 4°C higher than latest Holocene values. All records show glacial to interglacial differences of about 3.5°C in annual mean SST, which is about 1.5°C greater than the difference estimated by CLIMAP (1981) for the eastern Angola Basin. At the Walvis Ridge, significant SST variance is observed at all of the Earth's orbital periodicities. SST records from the Angola Basin vary predominantly at 23- and 100-kyr periodicities. For the precessional cycle, SST changes at the Walvis Ridge correspond to variations of boreal summer insolation over Africa and lead ice volume changes, suggesting that the east equatorial South Atlantic is sensitive to African monsoon intensity via trade-wind zonality. Angola Basin SST records lag those from the Walvis Ridge and the equatorial Atlantic by about 3 kyr. The comparison of Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge SST records implies that the Angola-Benguela Front (ABF) (currently at about 14-16°S) has remained fairly stationary between 12° and 20°S (the limits of our cores) during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. The temperature contrast associated with the ABF exhibits a periodic 23-kyr variability which is coherent with changes in boreal summer insolation over Africa. These observations suggest that surface waters north of the present ABF have not directly responded to monsoon-modulated changes in the trade-wind vector, that the central field of zonally directed trades in the southern hemisphere was not shifted or extended northward by several degrees of latitude during glacials, and that a cyclonic gyre circulation has existed in the east equatorial South Atlantic over the last 200,000 years. This scenario contradicts former assumptions of glacial intensification of the Benguela Current into the eastern Angola Basin and increased coastal upwelling off Angola.

The bivalve Glycymeris planicostalis as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for Rupelian (Early Oligocene) of Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walliser, E. O.; Schöne, B. R.; Tütken, T.; Zirkel, J.; Grimm, K. I.; Pross, J.

2014-10-01

Current global warming is likely to result in a unipolar glaciated world with unpredictable repercussions on atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. These changes are expected to affect seasonality as well as the frequency and intensity of decadal climate oscillations. To better constrain the mode and tempo of the anticipated changes, climatologists require high-resolution proxy data of time intervals in the past, e.g. the Early Oligocene during which boundary conditions were similar to those predicted for the near future. As demonstrated by the present study, pristinely preserved shells of the long-lived bivalve mollusk Glycymeris planicostalis from the late Rupelian of the Mainz Basin, Germany, provide an excellent archive to reconstruct changes of sea surface temperature on seasonal to inter-annual time scales. Their shells grew uninterruptedly during winter and summer and therefore recorded the full seasonal temperature amplitude that prevailed in the Mainz Basin 30 Ma ago. Absolute sea surface temperature data were faithfully reconstructed from δ18 Oshell values assuming a δ18Owater signature that was extrapolated from coeval sirenian tooth enamel. Extreme values ranged between 12.3 and 22.0°C and agree well with previous estimates based on planktonic foraminifera and shark teeth. However, summer and winter temperatures varied greatly on inter-annual time-scales. Winter and summer temperatures averaged over 40 annual increments of three specimens equaled 13.6 ± 0.8°C and 17.3 ± 1.2°C, respectively. Unless many samples are analyzed, this variability is hardly seen in foraminiferan tests. Our data also revealed decadal-scale oscillations of seasonal extremes which have - in the absence of appropriate climate archives - never been identified before for the Oligocene. This information can be highly relevant for numerical climate studies aiming to predict possible future climates in a unipolar glaciated or, ultimately, polar ice-free world.

Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2012-01-01

A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.

A theory for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S. E.

1985-01-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Nino events.

Stress Models of the Annual Hydrospheric, Atmospheric, Thermal, and Tidal Loading Cycles on California Faults: Perturbation of Background Stress and Changes in Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Christopher W.; Fu, Yuning; Bürgmann, Roland

2017-12-01

Stresses in the lithosphere arise from multiple natural loading sources that include both surface and body forces. The largest surface loads include near-surface water storage, snow and ice, atmosphere pressure, ocean loading, and temperature changes. The solid Earth also deforms from celestial body interactions and variations in Earth's rotation. We model the seasonal stress changes in California from 2006 through 2014 for seven different loading sources with annual periods to produce an aggregate stressing history for faults in the study area. Our modeling shows that the annual water loading, atmosphere, temperature, and Earth pole tides are the largest loading sources and should each be evaluated to fully describe seasonal stress changes. In California we find that the hydrological loads are the largest source of seasonal stresses. We explore the seasonal stresses with respect to the background principal stress orientation constrained with regional focal mechanisms and analyze the modulation of seismicity. Our results do not suggest a resolvable seasonal variation for the ambient stress orientation in the shallow crust. When projecting the seasonal stresses into the background stress orientation we find that the timing of microseismicity modestly increases from an 8 kPa seasonal mean-normal-stress perturbation. The results suggest that faults in California are optimally oriented with the background stress field and respond to subsurface pressure changes, possibly due to processes we have not considered in this study. At any time a population of faults are near failure as evident from earthquakes triggered by these slight seasonal stress perturbations.

Hydrologic Response to Climatic and Vegetation Change in an Extreme Alpine Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livneh, B.; Badger, A.; Molotch, N. P.; Bueno de Mesquita, C.; Suding, K.

2016-12-01

Mountain hydrology and ecology are uniquely sensitive to climate change. This presentation will examine how changes in climate have altered land cover and hydrology in the Green Lakes Valley, an alpine catchment for which approximately 80% of the annual precipitation ( 950 mm/yr) falls as snow. In these environments vegetation has two way interaction with hydrology: its distribution is driven by patterns of snowpack and water availability while it functions to modulate hydrologic responses by alterating land-atmosphere interaction. Long-term climate trends indicate warming, earlier snowmelt, and longer snow-free growing seasons. High-resolution aerial photography from 1972 and 2008 identified vegetation encroachment as shrubs and trees have increased in vigor and density in the tundra, while herbaceous tundra plants have colonized high-elevation bare ground. To understand modulations to physical hydrology from climate and biophysical responses, we apply a 20-m resolution fully-distributed hydrologic model. Through the use of observed meteorology (radiation, humidity, temperature and precipitation) an hourly climatology was created. Realizations from a stochastic ensemble of this climatology together with trends from long-term observations are used to characterize historical hydrologic response and project future changes. Through temperature and precipitation change experiments, alterations to the annual water cycle are presented—indicating the importance of annual snowpack evolution on both the surface and sub-surface hydrology, particularly through seasonal water storage. Probabilistic land cover change scenarios are developed that project how further vegetation encroachment modulates surface water fluxes and sediment yields. Lastly, the context of these results are compared with hydrometeorological research from other differing alpine and ecological regions.

Climate change predicted to negatively influence surface soil health of dryland cropping systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil organic matter (SOM) is a key indicator of agricultural productivity and overall soil health. Currently, dryland cropping systems of the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW) span a large gradient in mean annual temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP). These climatic drivers are major determinants ...

Sources and proxy potential of long chain alkyl diols in lacustrine environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rampen, Sebastiaan W.; Datema, Mariska; Rodrigo-Gámiz, Marta; Schouten, Stefan; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.

2014-11-01

Long chain 1,13- and 1,15-alkyl diols form the base of a number of recently proposed proxies used for climate reconstruction. However, the sources of these lipids and environmental controls on their distribution are still poorly constrained. We have analyzed the long chain alkyl diol (LCD) composition of cultures of ten eustigmatophyte species, with three species from different families grown at various temperatures, to identify the effect of species composition and growth temperature on the LCD distribution. The results were compared with the LCD distribution of sixty-two lake surface sediments, and with previously reported LCD distributions from marine environments. The different families within the Eustigmatophyceae show distinct LCD patterns, with the freshwater family Eustigmataceae most closely resembling LCD distributions in both marine and lake environments. Unlike the other two eustigmatophyte families analyzed (Monodopsidaceae and Goniochloridaceae), C28 and C30 1,13-alkyl diols and C30 and C32 1,15-alkyl diols are all relatively abundant in the family Eustigmataceae, while the mono-unsaturated C32 1,15-alkyl diol was below detection limit. In contrast to the marine environment, LCD distributions in lakes did not show a clear relationship with temperature. The Long chain Diol Index (LDI), a proxy previously proposed for sea surface temperature reconstruction, showed a relatively weak correlation (R2 = 0.33) with mean annual air temperature used as an approximation for annual mean surface temperature of the lakes. A much-improved correlation (R2 = 0.74, p-value <0.001) was observed applying a multiple linear regression analysis between LCD distributions and lake temperatures reconstructed using branched tetraether lipid distributions. The obtained regression model provides good estimates of temperatures for cultures of the family Eustigmataceae, suggesting that algae belonging to this family have an important role as a source for LCDs in lacustrine environments, or, alternatively, that the main sources of LCDs are similarly affected by temperature as the Eustigmataceae. The results suggest that LCDs may have the potential to be applicable as a palaeotemperature proxy for lacustrine environments, although further calibration work is still required.

Seasonal Correlations of SST, Water Vapor, and Convective Activity in Tropical Oceans: A New Hyperspectral Data Set for Climate Model Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Gregorich, David T.; Broberg, Steven E.; Elliott, Denis A.

2007-01-01

The analysis of the response of the Earth Climate System to the seasonal changes of solar forcing in the tropical oceans using four years of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data between 2002 and 2006 gives new insight into amplitude and phase relationships between surface and tropospheric temperatures, humidity, and convective activity. The intensity of the convective activity is measured by counting deep convective clouds. The peaks of convective activity, temperature in the mid-troposphere, and water vapor in the 0 - 30 N and 0 - 30 S tropical ocean zonal means occur about two months after solstice, all leading the peak of the sea surface temperature by several weeks. Phase is key to the evaluation of feedback. The evaluation of climate models in terms of zonal and annual means and annual mean deviations from zonal means can now be supplemented by evaluating the phase of key atmospheric and surface parameters relative to solstice. The ability of climate models to reproduce the statistical flavor of the observed amplitudes and relative phases for broad zonal means should lead to increased confidence in the realism of their water vapor and cloud feedback algorithms. AIRS and AMSU were launched into a 705 km altitude polar sun-synchronous orbit on the EOS Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002, and have been in routine data gathering mode since September 2002.

Seasonal Correlations of SST, Water Vapor, and Convective Activity in Tropical Oceans: A New Hyperspectral Data Set for Climate Model Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Gregorich, David T.; Broberg, Steven E.; Elliott, Denis A.

2007-01-01

The analysis of the response of the Earth Climate System to the seasonal changes of solar forcing in the tropical oceans using four years of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data between 2002 and 2006 gives new insight into amplitude and phase relationships between surface and tropospheric temperatures, humidity, and convective activity. The intensity of the convective activity is measured by counting deep convective clouds. The peaks of convective activity, temperature in the mid-troposphere, and water vapor in the 0-30 N and 0-30 S tropical ocean zonal means occur about two months after solstice, all leading the peak of the sea surface temperature by several weeks. Phase is key to the evaluation of feedback. The evaluation of climate models in terms of zonal and annual means and annual mean deviations from zonal means can now be supplemented by evaluating the phase of key atmospheric and surface parameters relative to solstice. The ability of climate models to reproduce the statistical flavor of the observed amplitudes and relative phases for broad zonal means should lead to increased confidence in the realism of their water vapor and cloud feedback algorithms. AIRS and AMSU were launched into a 705 km altitude polar sun-synchronous orbit on the EOS Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002, and have been in routine data gathering mode since September 2002.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Luthcke, Scott B.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo

2007-01-01

Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain.

The Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, Noriyuki

For the last couple of decades, the Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming. In particular, the magnitude of the summer surface-warming trends of the Great Lakes have been much greater than those of surrounding land (Austin and Colman, 2007). Among the Great Lakes, the deepest Lake Superior exhibited the strongest warming trend in its annual, as well as summer surface water temperature. We find that many aspects of this behavior can be explained in terms of the tendency of deep lakes to exhibit multiple regimes characterized, under the same seasonally varying forcing, by the warmer and colder seasonal cycles exhibiting different amounts of wintertime lake-ice cover and corresponding changes in the summertime lake-surface temperatures. In this thesis, we address the problem of the Great Lakes' warming using one-dimensional lake modeling to interpret diverse observations of the recent lake behavior. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Observations and modeling of northern mid-latitude recurring slope lineae (RSL) suggest recharge by a present-day martian briny aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stillman, David E.; Michaels, Timothy I.; Grimm, Robert E.; Hanley, Jennifer

2016-02-01

Recurring slope lineae (RSL) are narrow (0.5-5 m) dark features on Mars that incrementally lengthen down steep slopes, fade in colder seasons, and recur annually. These features have been identified from the northern to southern mid-latitudes. Here, we describe how observations of northern mid-latitude RSL in northern Chryse Planitia and southwestern Acidalia Planitia (CAP) suggest that brines start flowing before northern spring equinox and continue for more than half a Mars-year (490 ± 40 sols, spanning solar longitude 337° ± 11°-224° ± 20°). All CAP RSL are found on the steep slopes of craters and their source zones are at or below the elevation of the surrounding plains. Spacecraft-derived surface temperature observations cannot resolve individual RSL, so thermal modeling was used to determine that CAP RSL have a freezing temperature of 238-252 K, freeze and melt diurnally, and flow only occurs within the top ∼8 cm of the regolith. Furthermore, we calculate that a typical CAP RSL has a water budget of 1.5-5.6 m3/m of headwall. Therefore, such a large water budget makes annual recharge via atmospheric or subsurface diffusion sources unlikely. Alternatively, we hypothesize that the most plausible RSL source is a briny aquifer with a freezing temperature less than or equal to the mean annual CAP surface temperature (220-225 K). The annual cycle is as follows: in late autumn, the shallowest part of the brine feeding the source zone freezes, forming an ice dam. As spring approaches, temperatures rise and the dam is breached. Brine is discharged and the RSL initially lengthens rapidly (>1.86 m/sol), the lengthening rate then slows considerably, to ∼0.25 m/sol. Eventually, the losses equal the discharge rate and the RSL reaches its equilibrium phase. As brine flows in the RSL some of the water is lost to the atmosphere, therefore the freezing temperature of the brine within the RSL is higher (238-252 K) as the brine transitions to a super-eutectic salt concentration. In the late autumn, falling temperatures restore the ice dam and the H2O in the RSL slowly sublimates away. Overall, CAP RSL possess a significantly different seasonality and much longer duration than typical southern mid-latitude RSL, suggesting that RSL at different latitude bands have different source types. Lastly, CAP RSL are the best evidence that shallow groundwater may still exist on Mars.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aslan, Z.; Topcu, S.

A central objective of micrometeorological research is to establish fluxes from a knowledge of the mean temperature, humidity and wind speed profiles. The effect of time and spatial variations of surface heat and momentum fluxes is studied for various geographic regions. These analysis show the principal boundary conditions for micro and meso-scale analysis, air-sea interactions, weather forecasting air pollution, agrometeorology and climate changing models. The fluxes of heat and momentum can be obtained from observed profiles of wind speed and temperature using the similarity relations for the atmospheric surface layer. In recent years, harmonic analysis is a particularly useful toolmore » in studying annual patterns of some meteorological parameters at the field of micrometeorological studies.« less

Connecting differential responses of native and invasive riparian plants to climate change and environmental alteration.

PubMed

Flanagan, Neal E; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi

2015-04-01

Climate change is predicted to impact river systems in the southeastern United States through alterations of temperature, patterns of precipitation and hydrology. Future climate scenarios for the southeastern United States predict (1) surface water temperatures will warm in concert with air temperature, (2) storm flows will increase and base flows will decrease, and (3) the annual pattern of synchronization between hydroperiod and water temperature will be altered. These alterations are expected to disturb floodplain plant communities, making them more vulnerable to establishment of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate whether native and invasive riparian plant assemblages respond differently to alterations of climate and land use. To study the response of riparian wetlands to watershed and climate alterations, we utilized an existing natural experiment imbedded in gradients of temperature and hydrology-found among dammed and undammed rivers. We evaluated a suite of environmental variables related to water temperature, hydrology, watershed disturbance, and edaphic conditions to identify the strongest predictors of native and invasive species abundances. We found that native species abundance is strongly influenced by climate-driven variables such as temperature and hydrology, while invasive species abundance is more strongly influenced by site-specific factors such as land use and soil nutrient availability. The patterns of synchronization between plant phenology, annual hydrographs, and annual water temperature cycles may be key factors sustaining the viability of native riparian plant communities. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the interactions between climate, land use, and nutrient management in maintaining the species diversity of riparian plant communities. Future climate change is likely to result in diminished competitiveness of native plant species, while the competitiveness of invasive species will increase due to anthropogenic watershed disturbance and accelerated nutrient and sediment export.

Exchange of groundwater and surface-water mediated by permafrost response to seasonal and long term air temperature variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ge, S.; McKenzie, J.; Voss, C.; Wu, Q.

2011-01-01

Permafrost dynamics impact hydrologic cycle processes by promoting or impeding groundwater and surface water exchange. Under seasonal and decadal air temperature variations, permafrost temperature changes control the exchanges between groundwater and surface water. A coupled heat transport and groundwater flow model, SUTRA, was modified to simulate groundwater flow and heat transport in the subsurface containing permafrost. The northern central Tibet Plateau was used as an example of model application. Modeling results show that in a yearly cycle, groundwater flow occurs in the active layer from May to October. Maximum groundwater discharge to the surface lags the maximum subsurface temperature by two months. Under an increasing air temperature scenario of 3C per 100 years, over the initial 40-year period, the active layer thickness can increase by three-fold. Annual groundwater discharge to the surface can experience a similar three-fold increase in the same period. An implication of these modeling results is that with increased warming there will be more groundwater flow in the active layer and therefore increased groundwater discharge to rivers. However, this finding only holds if sufficient upgradient water is available to replenish the increased discharge. Otherwise, there will be an overall lowering of the water table in the recharge portion of the catchment. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Potentially Extreme Population Displacement and Concentration in the Tropics Under Non-Extreme Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, Solomon M.; Sobel, Adam H.

2016-06-01

Evidence increasingly suggests that as climate warms, some plant, animal, and human populations may move to preserve their environmental temperature. The distances they must travel to do this depends on how much cooler nearby surfaces temperatures are. Because large-scale atmospheric dynamics constrain surface temperatures to be nearly uniform near the equator, these displacements can grow to extreme distances in the tropics, even under relatively mild warming scenarios. Here we show that in order to preserve their annual mean temperatures, tropical populations would have to travel distances greater than 1000 km over less than a century if global mean temperature rises by 2 °C over the same period. The disproportionately rapid evacuation of the tropics under such a scenario would cause migrants to concentrate in tropical margins and the subtropics, where population densities would increase 300% or more. These results may have critical consequences for ecosystem and human wellbeing in tropical contexts where alternatives to geographic displacement are limited.

Spatio-temporal modelling of dengue fever incidence in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che-Him, Norziha; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; @ Kamariah Kamaruddin, Nafisah

2018-04-01

Previous studies reported significant relationship between dengue incidence rate (DIR) and both climatic and non-climatic factors. Therefore, this study proposes a generalised additive model (GAM) framework for dengue risk in Malaysia by using both climatic and non-climatic factors. The data used is monthly DIR for 12 states of Malaysia from 2001 to 2009. In this study, we considered an annual trend, seasonal effects, population, population density and lagged DIR, rainfall, temperature, number of rainy days and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The population density is found to be positively related to monthly DIR. There are generally weak relationships between monthly DIR and climate variables. A negative binomial GAM shows that there are statistically significant relationships between DIR with climatic and non-climatic factors. These include mean rainfall and temperature, the number of rainy days, sea surface temperature and the interaction between mean temperature (lag 1 month) and sea surface temperature (lag 6 months). These also apply to DIR (lag 3 months) and population density.

Features of seasonal temperature variations in peat soils of oligotrophic bogs in south taiga of Western Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiselev, M. V.; Dyukarev, E. A.; Voropay, N. N.

2018-03-01

The work presents the results of the study of the peculiarities of the temperature regime in the five basic ecosystems of oligotrophic bogs in the south taiga zone of Western Siberia in 2011-2016. The soil temperature regime was studied using the atmospheric-soil measuring complex at different depths from surface down to 240 cm. All sites were divided into two groups according to the bog water level: flooded sites (hollow and open fen) and drained sites (ridge, tall and low ryam). The waterlogged sites are better warmed in the summer period and slowly freeze in the winter period. The analysis of the annual cycle of temperature showed that the maximum surface temperature is in July. The minimum temperature on the surface is observed in February or January. The greatest temperature gradient was recorded in the upper 2 cm layer. The gradient at the open fen was -2 °C/cm in February and 1.1 °C/cm in October. The peak of formation of the seasonally frozen layer occurs at the end of autumn or in the beginning of winter. The degradation of the seasonally frozen layer was observed both from top and bottom, but the degradation rate from the top is faster.

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

2008-01-01

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

The annual pressure cycle on Mars: Results from the LMD Martian atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hourdin, Frederic; Forget, Francois; Talagrand, O.

1993-01-01

We have been developing a General Circulation Model (GCM) of the martian atmosphere since 1989. The model has been described rather extensively elsewhere and only the main characteristics are given here. The dynamical part of the model, adapted from the LMD terrestrial climate model, is based on a finite-difference formulation of the classical 'primitive equations of meteorology.' The radiative transfer code includes absorption and emission by CO2 (carefully validated by comparison to line-by-line calculations) and dust in the thermal range and absorption and scattering by dust in the visible range. Other physical parameterizations are included: modeling of vertical turbulent mixing, dry convective adjustment (in order to prevent vertical unstable temperature profiles), and a multilayer model of the thermal conduction in the soil. Finally, the condensation-sublimation of CO2 is introduced through specification of a pressure-dependent condensation temperature. The atmospheric and surface temperatures are prevented from falling below this critical temperature by condensation and direct precipitation onto the surface of atmospheric CO2. The only prespecified spatial fields are the surface thermal inertia, albedo, and topography.

In the hot seat : Insolation and ENSO controls on vegetation productivity in tropical Africa inferred from NDVI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivory, S.; Russell, J. L.; Cohen, A. S.

2010-12-01

Threats to tropical biodiversity with serious and costly implications for both ecosystems and human well-being in Africa have led the IPCC to classify this region as vulnerable to negative impacts from climate change. Yet little is known about how vegetation communities respond to altered patterns of rainfall and evaporation. Paleoclimate records within the tropics can help answer questions about how vegetation response to climate forcing changes over time. However, sparse spatial extent of records and uncertainty surrounding the climate-vegetation relationship complicate these insights. Understanding the climatic mechanisms involved in landscape change at all temporal scales creates the need for quantitative constraints of the modern relationship between climatic controls, hydrology, and vegetation. Though modern observational data can help elucidate this relationship, low resolution and complicated rainfall/vegetation associations make them less than ideal. Satellite data of vegetation productivity (NDVI) with continuous high-resolution spatial coverage provides a robust and elegant tool for identifying the link between global and regional controls and vegetation. We use regression analyses of variables either previously proposed or potentially important in regulating Afro-tropical vegetation (insolation, out-going long-wave radiation, geopotential height, Southern Oscillation Index, Indian Ocean Dipole, Indian Monsoon precipitation, sea-level pressure, surface wind, sea-surface temperature) on continuous, time-varying spatial fields of 8km NDVI for sub-Saharan Africa. These analyses show the importance of global atmospheric controls in producing regional intra-annual and inter-annual vegetation variability. Dipole patterns emerge primarily correlated with both the seasonal and inter-annual extent of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Inter-annual ITCZ variability drives patterns in African vegetation resulting from the effect of insolation anomalies and ENSO events on atmospheric circulation rather than sea surface temperatures or teleconnections to mid/high latitudes. Global controls on tropical atmospheric circulation regulate vegetation throughout sub-Saharan Africa on many time scales through alteration of dry season length and moisture convergence, rather than precipitation amount.

Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA Great Plains: Part I. Spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.

2016-11-01

Due to their substantial spatio-temporal behavior, long-term quantification and analyses of important hydrological variables are essential for practical applications in water resources planning, evaluating the water use of agricultural crop production and quantifying crop evapotranspiration patterns and irrigation management vs. hydrologic balance relationships. Observed data at over 800 sites across the Great Plains of USA, comprising of 9 states and 2,307,410 km2 of surface area, which is about 30% of the terrestrial area of the USA, were used to quantify and map large-scale and long-term (1968-2013) spatial trends of air temperatures, daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) at monthly, growing season and annual time steps. Air temperatures had a strong north to south increasing trend, with annual average varying from -1 to 24 °C, and growing season average temperature varying from 8 to 30 °C. DTR gradually decreased from western to eastern parts of the region, with a regional annual and growing season averages of 14.25 °C and 14.79 °C, respectively. Precipitation had a gradual shift towards higher magnitudes from west to east, with the average annual and growing season (May-September) precipitation ranging from 163 to 1486 mm and from 98 to 746 mm, respectively. ETo had a southwest-northeast decreasing trend, with regional annual and growing season averages of 1297 mm and 823 mm, respectively. AI increased from west to east, indicating higher humidity (less arid) towards the east, with regional annual and growing season averages of 0.49 and 0.44, respectively. The spatial datasets and maps for these important climate variables can serve as valuable background for climate change and hydrologic studies in the Great Plains region. Through identification of priority areas from the developed maps, efforts of the concerned personnel and agencies and resources can be diverted towards development of holistic strategies to address water supply and demand challenges under changing climate. These strategies can consist of, but not limited to, advancing water, crop and soil management, and genetic improvements and their relationships with the climatic variables on large scales.

Modeling The Urban Impact On Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study In Marrakesh, Morocco

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Messouli, Mohamed

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

Modeling the Urban Impact on Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study in Marrakech, Morocco

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Moussouli, Mohamed

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

Projections of Rapidly Rising Temperatures over Africa Under Low Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engelbrecht, Francois; Adegoke, Jimmy; Bopape, Mary-Jane; Naidoo, Mogesh; Garland, Rebecca; Thatcher, Marcus; McGregor, John; Katzfe, Jack; Werner, Micha; Ichoku, Charles;

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Installation Restoration Program. Preliminary Assessment for the 153rd Tactical Airlift Group, Wyoming Air National Guard, Cheyenne Municipal Airport, Cheyenne, Wyoming

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

Cheyenne area is characterized by semi-arid conditions and large diurnal and annual temperature changes. The summers are generally warm with humidity...contaminants through pathways (groundwater, surface water, soil, and air). MIOCENE - An epoch of the upper Tertiary period, after the Oligocene and before the

CPC - Monitoring & Data: Rest of the World Climate Data

Science.gov Websites

produces maps and time series for precipitation and surface temperatures for Africa, Asia, Europe, South - The CPC monitors weather and climate in real time with the aid of satellite animations, conventional , intraseasonal, seasonal and annual time scales are highlighted. The CPC also collects time series of accumulated

Climate change predicted to negatively influence surface soil organic matter of dryland cropping systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil organic matter (SOM) is a key indicator of agricultural productivity and overall soil health. Currently, dryland cropping systems of the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW) span a large gradient in mean annual temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP).These climatic drivers are major determinants o...

Controls on net carbon accumulation in North American peatlands: Insights from 210Pb dated cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieder, R.; Scott, K. D.; Vile, M. A.; Vitt, D. H.; Burke-Scoll, M.

2012-12-01

Northern peatlands cover only 3-4 % of the Earth's land surface area, yet store hugh quantities (250-450 Pg) of carbon as peat. These peatlands generally are believed to function as net sinks for atmospheric CO2 today, with C fixation by net primary production at the peat surface exceeding C losses by organic matter mineralization throughout the peat column. Various aspects of peatland structure and function are influenced by a variety of factors, including local climatic conditions and atmospheric deposition of N and S. Here we examine continental-scale patterns in recent net C accumulation in peatlands across North America, combining the published data for eastern Canada from Moore et al. (2004, Global Change Biology) and Turunen et al. (2004, Global Biogeochemical Cycles) with our data from boreal sites in western Canada (Alberta) and from temperate sites in the U.S. Across these sites, mean annual, January, and July temperatures ranged from 0.6 to 9.1, -20.5 to -1.6, and 11.3 to 20.8 oC, respecticely, mean annual precipitation, rainfall, and snowfall ranged from 406 to 1480, 289 to 1156 and 112 to 415 mm, respectively, growing degree days (above 5 oC) ranged from 947 to 4467, and annual wet N and S deposition ranged from 0.9 to 8.1 and 0.4 to 13.4 kg/ha/yr. For 67 cores, net C accumulation in peat over the past 50 years was determined by 210Pb dating and ranged from 492 to 1781 kg/ha/yr. Net C accumulation (kg/ha/yr) was positively correlated with mean annual precipitation (p = 0.0129), mean annual snowfall (p = 0.0010) and wet deposition of both N (p < 0.0001) and S (p = 0.0003). However, both the climatic and wet deposition variables exhibit similar gradients across North America, and hence are coufounded. Stepwise regression revealed that 53% of the overall variation in net C accumulation could be explained by only two variables, wet N deposition (p < 0.0001; R2 = 0.35) and mean annual temperature (p = 0.0106; R2 = 0.07), with the regression model of net C accumulation (kg/ha/yr) = 913 + (950 x wet N deposition) - (46 x mean annual temperature). The effects of ongoing climate change, notably warming and changing regional patterns of atmospheric N deposition, may have ramifications for peatland carbon cycling.

Hydrological response and thermal effect of karst springs linked to aquifer geometry and recharge processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Mingming; Chen, Zhihua; Zhou, Hong; Zhang, Liang; Han, Zhaofeng

2018-03-01

To be better understand the hydrological and thermal behavior of karst systems in South China, seasonal variations in flow, hydrochemistry and stable isotope ratios of five karst springs were used to delineate flow paths and recharge processes, and to interpret their thermal response. Isotopic data suggest that mean recharge elevations are 200-820 m above spring outlets. Springs that originate from high elevations have lower NO3 - concentrations than those originating from lower areas that have more agricultural activity. Measured Sr2+ concentrations reflect the strontium contents of the host carbonate aquifer and help delineate the spring catchment's saturated zone. Seasonal variations of NO3 - and Sr2+ concentrations are inversely correlated, because the former correlates with event water and the latter with baseflow. The mean annual water temperatures of springs were only slightly lower than the local mean annual surface temperature at the outlet elevations. These mean spring temperatures suggest a vertical gradient of 6 °C/vertical km, which resembles the adiabatic lapse rate of the Earth's stable atmosphere. Seasonal temperature variations in the springs are in phase with surface air temperatures, except for Heilongquan (HLQ) spring. Event-scale variations of thermal response are dramatically controlled by the circulation depth of karst systems, which determines the effectiveness of heat exchange. HLQ spring undergoes the deepest circulation depth of 820 m, and its thermal responses are determined by the thermally effective regulation processes at higher elevations and the mixing processes associated with thermally ineffective responses at lower elevations.

Trends in summer bottom-water temperatures on the northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf from 1985 to 2015.

PubMed

Turner, R Eugene; Rabalais, Nancy N; Justić, Dubravko

2017-01-01

We quantified trends in the 1985 to 2015 summer bottom-water temperature on the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) continental shelf for data collected at 88 stations with depths ranging from 3 to 63 m. The analysis was supplemented with monthly data collected from 1963 to 1965 in the same area. The seasonal summer peak in average bottom-water temperature varied concurrently with air temperature, but with a 2- to 5-month lag. The summer bottom-water temperature declined gradually with depth from 30 oC at stations closest to the shore, to 20 oC at the offshore edge of the study area, and increased an average 0.051 oC y-1 between1963 and 2015. The bottom-water warming in summer for all stations was 1.9 times faster compared to the rise in local summer air temperatures, and 6.4 times faster than the concurrent increase in annual global ocean sea surface temperatures. The annual rise in average summer bottom-water temperatures on the subtropical nGOM continental shelf is comparable to the few published temperature trend estimates from colder environments. These recent changes in the heat storage on the nGOM continental shelf will affect oxygen and carbon cycling, spatial distribution of fish and shrimp, and overall species diversity.

Monitoring of thermal regime of permafrost in the coastal zone of Western Yamal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiliev, A.

2009-04-01

Data on thermal regime of permafrost are required for estimation of the climate change influence on permafrost dynamics. Monitoring of thermal regime of permafrost was arranged in the area of weather station "Marre-Sale", western Yamal. In terms of geomorphology, the area of our observations belongs to the second and third marine terraces; the surface of these terraces has been partly modified by recent cryogenic processes. The elevation varies from 10 to 30 m a.s.l. Marine clays lie at the base of the geological section of the coastal deposits. Their upper part was eroded and uneven surface of marine sediments is overlain by continental sandy sediments. Marine clays are saline. In the southern part of study area, low accumulative islands are forming. Their heights above sea level do not exceed 0.5 meters, and during high tides their surface is covered by sea water. The sediments accumulating at these islands are saline silty clays. Western Yamal region is located within continuous permafrost zone with thickness of 150 to 200 meters. Study of thermal regime in the on-shore zone has been performed since 1979 using the 10-12-m-deep boreholes. In 2007, five boreholes were included in the work program of the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) project developed as a part of IPY scientific activities. According to TSP program, temperature sensors were installed at depths 2, 3, 5, and 10 meters; measurements have been performed every six hours. In this presentation, results of our observations related to climate change are discussed. For different terrain units, increase of mean annual permafrost temperature during the last 30 years has reached 0.6 to 1.5 deg. C. In the transit zone, monitoring of thermal regime have been performed since 2006. Sensors were installed at depths 0, 0.25, 0.6, 0.75, 1.25, 1.75, and 2.25 meters. The active layer depth here reaches 1.9 meters, thus the 2.25-m-sensor is located within permafrost. Monitoring data show the sharp increase in mean annual permafrost temperature from - 5 deg. C in the on-shore zone up to - 0.2 ÷ -1 deg. C in the transit zone. We believe that such a significant increase in mean annual temperature in the transit zone is related to the influence of snow cover, whose thicknesses reach 1.0 to 1.5 meters at the base of coastal bluff. At low accumulative islands, contemporary permafrost aggradation occurs. Measurements in the 2.5-m-deep borehole show that mean annual temperature of recently formed permafrost is - 3.4 deg. C.

Evaluation of energy fluxes in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Archana; Saha, Subodh Kumar

2018-01-01

The energy fluxes at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) from a long free run by the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2) are validated against several observation and reanalysis datasets. This study focuses on the annual mean energy fluxes and tries to link it with the systematic cold biases in the 2 m air temperature, particularly over the land regions. The imbalance in the long term mean global averaged energy fluxes are also evaluated. The global averaged imbalance at the surface and at the TOA is found to be 0.37 and 6.43 Wm-2, respectively. It is shown that CFSv2 overestimates the land surface albedo, particularly over the snow region, which in turn contributes to the cold biases in 2 m air temperature. On the other hand, surface albedo is highly underestimated over the coastal region around Antarctica and that may have contributed to the warm bias over that oceanic region. This study highlights the need for improvements in the parameterization of snow/sea-ice albedo scheme for a realistic simulation of surface temperature and that may have implications on the global energy imbalance in the model.

Ecosystem responses to recent oceanographic variability in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueter, Franz J.; Broms, Cecilie; Drinkwater, Kenneth F.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hunt, George L., Jr.; Melle, Webjørn; Taylor, Maureen

2009-04-01

As part of the international MENU collaboration, we compared and contrasted ecosystem responses to climate-forced oceanographic variability across several high latitude regions of the North Pacific (Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA)) and North Atlantic Oceans (Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank (GOM/GB) and the Norwegian/Barents Seas (NOR/BAR)). Differences in the nitrate content of deep source waters and incoming solar radiation largely explain differences in average primary productivity among these ecosystems. We compared trends in productivity and abundance at various trophic levels and their relationships with sea-surface temperature. Annual net primary production generally increases with annual mean sea-surface temperature between systems and within the EBS, BAR, and GOM/GB. Zooplankton biomass appears to be controlled by both top-down (predation by fish) and bottom-up forcing (advection, SST) in the BAR and NOR regions. In contrast, zooplankton in the GOM/GB region showed no evidence of top-down forcing but appeared to control production of major fish populations through bottom-up processes that are independent of temperature variability. Recruitment of several fish stocks is significantly and positively correlated with temperature in the EBS and BAR, but cod and pollock recruitment in the EBS has been negatively correlated with temperature since the 1977 shift to generally warmer conditions. In each of the ecosystems, fish species showed a general poleward movement in response to warming. In addition, the distribution of groundfish in the EBS has shown a more complex, non-linear response to warming resulting from internal community dynamics. Responses to recent warming differ across systems and appear to be more direct and more pronounced in the higher latitude systems where food webs and trophic interactions are simpler and where both zooplankton and fish species are often limited by cold temperatures.

A remarkable climate warming hiatus over Northeast China since 1998

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiubao; Ren, Guoyu; Ren, Yuyu; Fang, Yihe; Liu, Yulian; Xue, Xiaoying; Zhang, Panfeng

2017-07-01

Characteristics and causes of global warming hiatus (GWH) phenomenon have received much attention in recent years. Monthly mean data of land surface air maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and mean temperature (Tmean) of 118 national stations since 1951 in Northeast China are used in this paper to analyze the changes of land surface air temperature in recent 64 years with an emphasis on the GWH period. The results show that (1) from 1951 to 2014, the warming trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are 0.20, 0.42, and 0.34 °C/decade respectively for the whole area, with the warming rate of Tmin about two times of Tmax, and the upward trend of Tmean obviously higher than mainland China and global averages; (2) in the period 1998-2014, the annual mean temperature consistently exhibits a cooling phenomenon in Northeast China, and the trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are -0.36, -0.14, and -0.28 °C/decade respectively; (3) in the GWH period, seasonal mean cooling mainly occurs in northern winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), but northern summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) still experience a warming, implying that the annual mean temperature decrease is controlled by the remarkable cooling of winter and spring; (4) compared to the global and mainland China averages, the hiatus phenomenon is more evident in Northeast China, and the cooling trends are more obvious in the cold season; (5) the Northeast China cooling trend occurs under the circulation background of the negative phase Arctic Oscillation (AO), and it is also closely related to strengthening of the Siberia High (SH) and the East Asian Trough (EAT), and the stronger East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the GWH period.

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Decreased runoff response to precipitation, Little Missouri River Basin, northern Great Plains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Eleanor R.; Friedman, Jonathan M.

2017-01-01

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976-2012 compared to 1939-1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface-water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.

Evolution of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the late Holocene and insolation driven change in the tropical annual SST cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loubere, Paul; Creamer, Winifred; Haas, Jonathan

2013-01-01

South American lake sediment records indicate that El Nino events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) became more frequent after 3000 calendar years BP. The reason for this evolution of ENSO behavior remains in question. An important trigger for ocean-atmosphere state switching in the tropical ocean is the annual cycle of sea surface temperature south of the equator along the margin of South America. This annual cycle can be reconstructed from the oxygen isotope records of the surf clam Mesodesma donacium. We provide evidence that these isotope records, as preserved in archeological deposits in coastal central Peru, reflect seasonal paleo-SST. We find that the annual SST cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific became larger over the 4500-2500 calendar year BP interval. This is consistent with increased ENSO variability. The magnification of the annual SST cycle can be attributed to changing insolation, indicating that ENSO is sensitive to the intensity and seasonal timing of solar heating of the southern EEP.

Forests tend to cool the land surface in the temperate zone: An analysis of the mechanisms controlling radiometric surface temperature change in managed temperate ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoy, P. C.; Katul, G. G.; Juang, J.; Siqueira, M. B.; Novick, K. A.; Essery, R.; Dore, S.; Kolb, T. E.; Montes-Helu, M. C.; Scott, R. L.

2010-12-01

Vegetation is an important control on the surface energy balance and thereby surface temperature. Boreal forests and arctic shrubs are thought to warm the land surface by absorbing more radiation than the vegetation they replace. The surface temperatures of tropical forests tend to be cooler than deforested landscapes due to enhanced evapotranspiration. The effects of reforestation on surface temperature change in the temperate zone is less-certain, but recent modeling efforts suggest forests have a global warming effect. We quantified the mechanisms driving radiometric surface changes following landcover changes using paired ecosystem case studies from the Ameriflux database with energy balance models of varying complexity. Results confirm previous findings that deciduous and coniferous forests in the southeastern U.S. are ca. 1 °C cooler than an adjacent field on an annual basis because aerodynamic/ecophysiological cooling of 2-3 °C outweighs an albedo-related warming of <1 °C. A 50-70% reduction in the aerodynamic resistance to sensible and latent heat exchange in the forests dominated the cooling effect. A grassland ecosystem that succeeded a stand-replacing ponderosa pine fire was ca. 1 °C warmer than unburned stands because a 1.5 °C aerodynamic warming offset a slight surface cooling due to greater albedo and soil heat flux. An ecosystem dominated by mesquite shrub encroachment was nearly 2 °C warmer than a native grassland ecosystem as aerodynamic and albedo-related warming outweighed a small cooling effect due to changes in soil heat flux. The forested ecosystems in these case studies are documented to have higher carbon uptake than the non-forested systems. Results suggest that temperate forests tend to cool the land surface and suggest that previous model-based findings that forests warm the Earth’s surface globally should be reconsidered.Changes to radiometric surface temperature (K) following changes in vegetation using paired ecosystem case studies C4 grassland and shrub ecosystem surface temperatures were adjusted for differences in air temperature across sites.

The Gephyrocapsa Sea Surface Paleothermometer Put To The Test: Comparison With Alkenone and Foraminifera Proxies Off NW Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderiks, J.; Bollmann, J.

In Holocene deep-sea sediments, the relative abundance of different morphotypes within the coccolithophore genus Gephyrocapsa is closely correlated with sea sur- face temperature (Bollmann, 1997). Based on this relationship, a regional temperature transfer function was established using a set of 35 Holocene sediments from the NE Atlantic, covering a temperature range from 14C to 24C. Using this approach, ab- solute annual mean sea surface temperatures for a given location can be calculated from the relative abundance of two Gephyrocapsa morphotypes, Gephyrocapsa Cold and Gephyrocapsa Equatorial, with a standard deviation of +/-1.06C. A global regres- sion model (N=110) was applied as well, which calculates absolute mean sea surface temperatures from the relative abundance of three Gephyrocapsa morphotypes, with a standard deviation of +/-1.78C. Using both calibration models, we have estimated sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum in a dispersed set of eigh- teen well-dated gravity cores off NW Africa (16-35N; 20-8W). The regional model revealed that annual mean temperatures during the LGM were 4 to 6C colder than today in the Canary Islands region, with lowest temperatures (14-15.5C) off-shore Morocco and south of the volcanic islands, likely due to intensified upwelling related to stronger trade winds. These values are consistent with estimates from the CLIMAP Project (1981) and other paleotemperature reconstructions for the same region. In con- trast, offshore Cape Blanc, our temperature estimates for the LGM are significantly warmer (Ttoday -LGM <4C) than proposed by CLIMAP (Ttoday -LGM 6-10C). Nevertheless, our results support temperature reconstructions based on alkenones that also indicate rather small temperature changes (Ttoday -LGM <3C) in this area (e.g. Zhao et al., 2000). Glacial sea surface temperature estimates derived from the global calibration are on average 1C warmer than those derived from the regional model. However, the overall geographic patterns and temperature gradients for both reconstructions are very similar. To compare our Gephyrocapsa proxy with other pa- leotemperature proxies, we investigated a down-core record off Cape Blanc (GeoB 1048; 2055 N, 1943 W) in the vicinity of BOFS core 31K (1900 N, 2010 W). For the latter core, a detailed multiproxy paleotemperature record already exists based on alkenones, Mg/Ca ratios in foraminiferal calcite and planktic foraminifera assem- 1 blages (Chapman et al., 1996; Elderfield Ganssen, 2000). Here, we show an especially good and consistent correspondence between our new proxy and alkenones, reflecting the fact that both proxies originated from the phytoplankton community. References Bollmann, Marine Micropaleontology 29 (3/4), 319-350 (1997). Chapman et al. Paleoceanography 11, 343-357 (1996). Elderfield Ganssen. Nature 405, 442-445 (2000). Zhao et al. Organic Geochemistry 31, 919-930 (2000). 2

Spectral Remote Sensing of Dust Sources on the U.S. Great Plains from 1930s Panchromatic Aerial Phtography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolles, K.; Forman, S. L.

2017-12-01

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of dust sources is essential to accurately quantify the various impacts of dust on the Earth system; however, a persistent deficiency in modeling dust emission is detailed knowledge of surface texture, geomorphology, and location of dust emissive surfaces, which strongly influence the effects of wind erosion. Particle emission is closely linked to both climatic and physical surface factors - interdependent variables that respond to climate nonlinearly and are mitigated by variability in land use or management practice. Recent efforts have focused on development of a preferential dust source (PDS) identification scheme to improve global dust-cycle models, which posits certain surfaces are more likely to emit dust than others, dependent upon associated sediment texture and geomorphological limitations which constrain sediment supply and availability. In this study, we outline an approach to identify and verify the physical properties and distribution of dust emissive surfaces in the U.S. Great Plains from historical aerial imagery in order to establish baseline records of dust sources, associated erodibility, and spatiotemporal variability, prior to the satellite era. We employ a multi-criteria, spatially-explicit model to identify counties that are "representative" of the broader landscape on the Great Plains during the 1930s. Parameters include: percentage of county cultivated and uncultivated per the 1935 Agricultural Census, average soil sand content, mean annual Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), maximum annual temperature and percent difference to the 30-year normal maximum temperature, and annual precipitation and percent difference to the 30-year normal precipitation level. Within these areas we generate random points to select areas for photo reproduction. Selected frames are photogrammetrically scanned at 1200 dpi, radiometrically corrected, mosaicked and georectified to create an IKONOS-equivalent image. Gray-level co-occurrence matrices are calculated in a 3x3 moving window to determine textural properties of the mosaic and delineate bare surfaces of different sedimentological properties. Field stratigraphic assessments and spatially-referenced historical data are integrated within ArcGIS to ground-truth imagery.

The influence of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on interannual global climate variations. Ph.D. Thesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andsager, K.M.

A qualitative physical mechanism has been proposed to explain the forcing of the EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by low-latitude volcanic stratospheric aerosols. This mechanism is based on the normal global annual cycle resulting from the normal annual cycle in the distribution of incoming solar radiation. The presence of a volcanic stratospheric aerosol, which backscatters incoming solar radiation, is hypothesized to trigger the ENSO through an amplification of the normal annual decrease in wind strength and corresponding increase in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The observational evidence for an association between the record of volcanic eruptionsmore » and SST and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, Tahiti SLP minus Darwin SLP) over the last 120 years is examined using superposed epoch analysis. Composites using as key dates low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest that these eruptions are followed by statistically significantly warm sea surface temperatures at least at the 1 percent level, if not higher, with the greatest warming generally occurring in the first three seasons after the eruption. Satellite data on the distribution of recent volcanic aerosols suggests that an aerosol must only be present over the tropics (about 20 deg S to 20 deg N) to trigger an ENSO event. For the physical mechanism by which an ENSO event may be triggered by a volcanic stratospheric aerosol, these results and the results of recent computer modeling studies imply the need for a shift away from past emphasis on surface cooling and SLP anomalies and toward consideration of stratospheric warming and changes in energy storage and transport.« less

Combined Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation on Sea Surface Temperature in the Alborán Sea

PubMed Central

Báez, José C.; Gimeno, Luis; Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho; Ferri-Yáñez, Francisco; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

We explored the possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Alborán Sea, both separately and combined. The probability of observing mean annual SST values higher than average was related to NAO and AO values of the previous year. The effect of NAO on SST was negative, while that of AO was positive. The pure effects of NAO and AO on SST are obscuring each other, due to the positive correlation between them. When decomposing SST, NAO and AO in seasonal values, we found that variation in mean annual SST and mean winter SST was significantly related to the mean autumn NAO of the previous year, while mean summer SST was related to mean autumn AO of the previous year. The one year delay in the effect of the NAO and AO on the SST could be partially related to the amount of accumulated snow, as we found a significant correlation between the total snow in the North Alborán watershed for a year with the annual average SST of the subsequent year. A positive AO implies a colder atmosphere in the Polar Regions, which could favour occasional cold waves over the Iberian Peninsula which, when coupled with precipitations favoured by a negative NAO, may result in snow precipitation. This snow may be accumulated in the high peaks and melt down in spring-summer of the following year, which consequently increases the runoff of freshwater to the sea, which in turn causes a diminution of sea surface salinity and density, and blocks the local upwelling of colder water, resulting in a higher SST. PMID:23638005

Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Ice Sheet Surface Elevation at the Summit of Greenland: Observed and Modeled

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Jun, Li; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Observed seasonal and interannual variations in the surface elevation over the summit of the Greenland ice sheet are modeled using a new temperature-dependent formulation of firn-densification and observed accumulation variations. The observed elevation variations are derived from ERS (European Remote Sensing)-1 and ERS-2 radar altimeter data for the period between April 1992 and April 1999. A multivariate linear/sine function is fitted to an elevation time series constructed from elevation differences measured by radar altimetry at orbital crossovers. The amplitude of the seasonal elevation cycle is 0.25 m peak-to-peak, with a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer. Inter-annually, the elevation decreases to a minimum in 1995, followed by an increase to 1999, with an overall average increase of 4.2 cm a(exp -1) for 1992 to 1999. Our densification formulation uses an initial field-density profile, the AWS (automatic weather station) surface temperature record, and a temperature-dependent constitutive relation for the densification that is based on laboratory measurements of crystal growth rates. The rate constant and the activation energy commonly used in the Arrhenius-type constitutive relation for firn densification are also temperature dependent, giving a stronger temperature and seasonal amplitudes about 10 times greater than previous densification formulations. Summer temperatures are most important, because of the strong non-linear dependence on temperature. Much of firn densification and consequent surface lowering occurs within about three months of the summer season, followed by a surface build-up from snow accumulation until spring. Modeled interannual changes of the surface elevation, using the AWS measurements of surface temperature and accumulation and results of atmospheric modeling of precipitation variations, are in good agreement with the altimeter observations. In the model, the surface elevation decreases about 20 cm over the seven years due to more compaction driven by increasing summer temperatures. The minimum elevation in 1995 is driven mainly by a temporary accumulation decrease and secondarily by warmer temperatures. However, the overall elevation increase over the seven years is dominated by the accumulation increase in the later years.

Recent trends (2003-2013) of land surface heat fluxes on the southern side of the central Himalayas, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amatya, Pukar Man; Ma, Yaoming; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Devkota, Lochan Prasad

2015-12-01

Novice efforts have been made in order to study the regional distribution of land surface heat fluxes on the southern side of the central Himalayas utilizing high-resolution remotely sensed products, but these have been on instantaneous scale. In this study the Surface Energy Balance System model is used to obtain annual averaged maps of the land surface heat fluxes for 11 years (2003-2013) and study their annual trends on the central Himalayan region. The maps were derived at 5 km resolution using monthly input products ranging from satellite derived to Global Land Data Assimilation System meteorological data. It was found that the net radiation flux is increasing as a result of decreasing precipitation (drier environment). The sensible heat flux did not change much except for the northwestern High Himalaya and High Mountains. In northwestern High Himalaya sensible heat flux is decreasing because of decrease in wind speed, ground-air temperature difference, and increase in winter precipitation, whereas in High Mountains it is increasing due to increase in ground-air temperature difference and high rate of deforestation. The latent heat flux has an overall increasing trend with increase more pronounced in the lower regions compared to high elevated regions. It has been reported that precipitation is decreasing with altitude in this region. Therefore, the increasing trend in latent heat flux can be attributed to increase in net radiation flux under persistent forest cover and irrigation land used for agriculture.

Evidence for Surface Water Ice in the Lunar Polar Regions Using Reflectance Measurements from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter and Temperature Measurements from the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Elizabeth A.; Lucey, Paul G.; Lemelin, Myriam; Greenhagen, Benjamin T.; Siegler, Matthew A.; Mazarico, Erwan; Aharonson, Oded; Williams, Jean-Pierre; Hayne, Paul O.; Neumann, Gregory A.;

Evidence for surface water ice in the lunar polar regions using reflectance measurements from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter and temperature measurements from the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Elizabeth A.; Lucey, Paul G.; Lemelin, Myriam; Greenhagen, Benjamin T.; Siegler, Matthew A.; Mazarico, Erwan; Aharonson, Oded; Williams, Jean-Pierre; Hayne, Paul O.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Paige, David A.; Smith, David E.; Zuber, Maria T.

2017-08-01

We find that the reflectance of the lunar surface within 5° of latitude of the South Pole increases rapidly with decreasing temperature, near ∼110 K, behavior consistent with the presence of surface water ice. The North polar region does not show this behavior, nor do South polar surfaces at latitudes more than 5° from the pole. This South pole reflectance anomaly persists when analysis is limited to surfaces with slopes less than 10° to eliminate false detection due to the brightening effect of mass wasting, and also when the very bright south polar crater Shackleton is excluded from the analysis. We also find that south polar regions of permanent shadow that have been reported to be generally brighter at 1064 nm do not show anomalous reflectance when their annual maximum surface temperatures are too high to preserve water ice. This distinction is not observed at the North Pole. The reflectance excursion on surfaces with maximum temperatures below 110 K is superimposed on a general trend of increasing reflectance with decreasing maximum temperature that is present throughout the polar regions in the north and south; we attribute this trend to a temperature or illumination-dependent space weathering effect (e.g. Hemingway et al., 2015). We also find a sudden increase in reflectance with decreasing temperature superimposed on the general trend at 200 K and possibly at 300 K. This may indicate the presence of other volatiles such as sulfur or organics. We identified and mapped surfaces with reflectances so high as to be unlikely to be part of an ice-free population. In this south we find a similar distribution found by Hayne et al. (2015) based on UV properties. In the north a cluster of pixels near that pole may represent a limited frost exposure.

Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bintanja, R.

2012-04-01

Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Regan, R. Steven; Leaf, Andrew T.; Saad, David A.

2016-08-23

Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

Marine Cloud Brightening: regional applications to the weakening of hurricanes and reduction in coral bleaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadian, A.; Hauser, R.; Kleypas, J. A.; Latham, J.; Parkes, B.; Salter, S.

2013-12-01

This study examines the potential to cool ocean surface waters in regions of hurricane genesis and early development. This would be achieved by seeding, with copious quantities of seawater cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), low-level maritime stratocumulus clouds covering these regions or those at the source of incoming currents. Higher cloud droplet density would increase these clouds' reflectivity to incoming sunlight, and possibly their longevity. This approach is a more localized application of the Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) geoengineering technique promoting global cooling. By utilizing a climate ocean/atmosphere coupled model, HadGEM1, and by judicious seeding of maritime stratocumulus clouds, we demonstrate that we may be able to significantly reduce sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in hurricane development regions. Thus artificial seeding may reduce hurricane intensity; but how well the magnitude of this effect is yet to be determined. Increases in coral bleaching events over the last few decades have been largely caused by rising SSTs, and continued warming is expected to cause even greater increases through this century. Using thr same Global Climate Model to examine the potential of MCB to cool oceanic surface waters in three coral reef provinces. Our simulations indicate that under doubled CO2 conditions, the substantial increases in coral bleaching conditions from current values in three reef regions (Caribbean, French Polynesia, and the Great Barrier Reef) were eliminated when MCB was applied, which reduced the SSTs at these sites roughly to their original values. In this study we also illustrate how even regional application of MCB can affect the planetary meridional heat flux and the reduction in poleward heat transfer. (a) Change in annual average sea surface temperature, Celsius, between the 2xCO2 and CONTROL simulations. (b) Change in annual average sea surface temperature, Celsius, between the CONTROL and 2xCO2+MCB simulations. The dashed black boxes in both panels represent the three coral reef regions. In the Southern north Atlantic, the warmer SSTs in (a) is reduced to the current "control" temperatures, weakening hurricane formation.

Annual and latitudinal variations of surface fluxes and meteorological variables at Arctic terrestrial sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grachev, Andrey; Uttal, Taneil; Persson, Ola; Konopleva-Akish, Elena; Crepinsek, Sara; Cox, Christopher; Fairall, Christopher; Makshtas, Alexander; Repina, Irina

2016-04-01

This study analyzes and discusses seasonal and latitudinal variations of surface fluxes (turbulent, radiative, and soil ground heat) and other ancillary surface/snow/permafrost data based on in-situ measurements made at two long-term research observatories near the coast of the Arctic Ocean located in Canada and Russia. The hourly averaged data collected at Eureka (Canadian territory of Nunavut) and Tiksi (East Siberia) located at two quite different latitudes (80.0 N and 71.6 N respectively) are analyzed in details to describe the seasons in the Arctic. Although Eureka and Tiksi are located at the different continents and at the different latitudes, the annual course of the surface meteorology and the surface fluxes are qualitatively very similar. The air and soil temperatures display the familiar strong seasonal trend with maximum of measured temperatures in mid-summer and minimum during winter. According to our data, variation in incoming short-wave solar radiation led the seasonal pattern of the air and soil temperatures, and the turbulent fluxes. During the dark Polar nights, air and ground temperatures are strongly controlled by long-wave radiation associated generally with cloud cover. Due to the fact that in average the higher latitudes receive less solar radiation than lower latitudes, a length of the convective atmospheric boundary layer (warm season) is shorter and middle-summer amplitude of the turbulent fluxes is generally less in Eureka than in Tiksi. However, since solar elevation angle at local midnight in the middle of Arctic summer is higher for Eureka as compared to Tiksi, stable stratification and upward turbulent flux for carbon dioxide is generally did not observed at Eureka site during summer seasons. It was found a high correlation between the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat, carbon dioxide and the net solar radiation. A comprehensive evaluation of energy balance closure problem is performed based on the multi-year data sets collected at the Arctic terrestrial sites. The work is supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office, the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) with award ARC 11-07428, and by the U.S. Civilian Research & Development Foundation (CRDF) with award RUG1-2976-ST-10.

Sr/Ca and stable isotopes in a coral from the Venezuelan coast: A record of 20th-century changes in SST, SSS and cloud cover?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hetzinger, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Dullo, W.; Zinke, J.; Garbe-Schoenberg, C.

2011-12-01

We present a record of monthly δ18O and Sr/Ca variations in coral aragonite from a massive Diploria strigosa colony retrieved from a coastal NW-Venezuelan reef site (10.55°N, 67.24°W; 1940-2004). Linear regression of coral proxies to high resolution satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data (NASA OBPG MODIS-Aqua, 9-km resolution) demonstrates that both geochemical proxies record seasonal temperature variability in ambient seawater (Sr/Ca: r=-0.68 monthly, r=-0.60 annual; δ18O: r=-0.57 monthly, r=-0.46 annual; 1985-2004). On longer time scales both proxies record local as well as regional SST dynamics in the southeastern Caribbean and northern North Tropical Atlantic. A statistically significant relationship is observed between coral δ18O and local air temperature (r=-0.56; 1951-2002), while correspondence of δ18O to SST products (e.g. ERSST, SODA reanalysis) is lower than for Sr/Ca ratios. However, coral δ18O is a function of both temperature and δ18Oseawater and δ18Oseawater in turn is dependent on salinity. A comparison of δ18O to sea surface salinity (SSS) data confirms the existence of a strong salinity component in coral δ18O on annual and longer time scales (SODA reanalysis, r=0.65 for annual means, r=0.84 for 3-year average; 1958-2001). A decreasing trend from the mid-1980s onwards is evident in both SSS and coral δ18O, corresponding to trends seen in other Caribbean studies. Further, both geochemical proxies show a significant negative correlation to cloud cover averaged over a regional box (r=-0.66 for Sr/Ca; r=-0.48 for δ18O; 1941-2003). A significant drop in cloud cover is seen around the year 1947, which is displayed in both proxies as a distinct positive peak and coincides with a drop in instrumental SST. Interestingly, a marked decrease in annual coral growth rate is observed in the uppermost years of the core (1999 to 2004), as well as a reduced seasonal amplitude in δ18O variability and a trend to more negative δ18O-values at the same time. This timing coincides with an extreme event that occurred in December 1999, when Venezuela saw its highest monthly rainfall in 100 years, triggering massive landslides, debris flows and flooding along the northern coast of Venezuela. This event, which killed more than 30,000 people and caused massive damage to communities and infrastructure, has also severely influenced local coral reefs, including the study site. Coastal Venezuelan coral reefs in the affected area have seen a steep decline after this event, which is documented in our core by a distinct drop in annual growth rates after December 1999. In summary, this record documents the local and regional history of sea surface and atmospheric conditions with high temporal resolution, as well as local climatic extreme events.

The distribution of ground ice on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, M. T.; Jakosky, B. M.

1993-01-01

A wealth of geologic evidence indicates that subsurface water ice has played an important role in the evolution of Martian landforms. Theoretical models of the stability of ground ice show that in the near-surface regolith ice is currently stable at latitudes poleward of about +/- 40 deg and below a depth of a few centimeters to a meter, with some variations with longitude. If ice is not previously present at a particular location where it is stable, atmospheric water will diffuse into the regolith and condense as ice, driven by the annual subsurface thermal oscillations. The lower boundary of this ice deposit is found to occur at a depth (typically a few meters) where the annual thermal oscillations give way to the geothermal gradient. In the equatorial regions near-surface ice is currently not stable, resulting in the sublimation of any existing ice and subsequent loss to the atmosphere. However, subliming ice might be maintained at a steady-state depth, where diffusion and loss to the atmosphere are balanced by resupply from a possible deeper source of water (either deeper, not yet depleted, ice deposits or ground water). This depth is typically a few tens to hundreds of meters and depends primarily on the surface temperature and the nature of the geothermal gradient, being deeper for a higher surface temperature and a lower geothermal gradient. Such an equatorial deposit is characterized by the regolith ice content being low nearer the surface and increasing with depth in the deposit. Oscillations in the orbit will affect this picture of ground ice in two ways: by causing periodic changes in the pattern of near-surface stability and by producing subsurface thermal waves that may be capable of driving water ice deeper into the regolith.

Controlling factors of evaporation and CO2 flux over an open water lake in southeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Q.; Liu, H.; Liu, Y.; Wang, L.; Xu, L.

2017-12-01

Erhai lake is located in the southeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau. Based on the 4 years measurement over Erhai lake with eddy covariance technique (EC) from 2012 to 2015, the diurnal and seasonal variations of latent and sensible heat and CO2 fluxes, and their controlling factors over different time scales were analyzed. The diurnal average LE ranged from 31 to 171 Wm-2, while Hs ranged from -31 to 21 Wm-2. Bowen ratio was larger during January and May and smaller during June and October. The lake continued storing heat during January and June, and releasing heat since July. The diurnal average CO2 fluxes during nighttime were higher than the daytime, and carbon uptake was almost observed during the midday time of the day for the whole study period. The annual carbon budget fluctuated from 117.5 to 161.7 g C m-2 a-1, while annual total evaporation (ET) from 1120.8 to 1228.5 mm for the four-years period. The Erhai Lake behaved as a net carbon source over the whole period but carbon uptake was observed during the middle time of each year. The difference between water surface and air temperature (DeltaT) and the product of DeltaT and wind speed were the main controlling factors for Hs from halfhourly to monthly scale. There was significant relationship between wind speed, the product of wind speed and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and LE on halfhourly and daily scales. The total cloud amount and net radiation (Rn) had a large effect on monthly variation of LE. Photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) and wind speed was mainly responsible for the variation of halfhourly and daily CO2 fluxes, respectively. The total cloud amount was the most important factors controlling for annual total ET. The annual rainfall, water surface temperature was observed to be negatively related with annual CO2 fluxes.

On the relationship between water vapor over the oceans and sea surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Graeme L.

1990-01-01

Monthly mean precipitable water data obtained from passive microwave radiometry were correlated with the National Meteorological Center (NMC) blended sea surface temperature data. It is shown that the monthly mean water vapor content of the atmosphere above the oceans can generally be prescribed from the sea surface temperature with a standard deviation of 0.36 g/sq cm. The form of the relationship between precipitable water and sea surface temperature in the range T (sub s) greater than 18 C also resembles that predicted from simple arguments based on the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. The annual cycle of the globally integrated mass of Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) water vapor is shown to differ from analyses of other water vapor data in both phase and amplitude and these differences point to a significant influence of the continents on water vapor. Regional scale analyses of water vapor demonstrate that monthly averaged water vapor data, when contrasted with the bulk sea surface temperature relationship developed in this study, reflect various known characteristics of the time mean large-scale circulation over the oceans. A water vapor parameter is introduced to highlight the effects of large-scale motion on atmospheric water vapor. Based on the magnitude of this parameter, it is shown that the effects of large-scale flow on precipitable water vapor are regionally dependent, but for the most part, the influence of circulation is generally less than about + or - 20 percent of the seasonal mean.

On the relationship between water vapor over the oceans and sea surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Graeme L.

1989-01-01

Monthly mean precipitable water data obtained from passive microwave radiometry were correlated with the National Meteorological Center (NMC) blended sea surface temperature data. It is shown that the monthly mean water vapor content of the atmosphere above the oceans can generally be prescribed from the sea surface temperature with a standard deviation of 0.36 g/sq cm. The form of the relationship between precipitable water and sea surface temperature in the range T(sub s) greater than 18 C also resembles that predicted from simple arguments based on the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. The annual cycle of the globally integrated mass of Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) water vapor is shown to differ from analyses of other water vapor data in both phase and amplitude and these differences point to a significant influence of the continents on water vapor. Regional scale analyses of water vapor demonstrate that monthly averaged water vapor data, when contrasted with the bulk sea surface temperature relationship developed in this study, reflect various known characteristics of the time mean large-scale circulation over the oceans. A water vapor parameter is introduced to highlight the effects of large-scale motion on atmospheric water vapor. Based on the magnitude of this parameter, it is shown that the effects of large-scale flow on precipitable water vapor are regionally dependent, but for the most part, the influence of circulation is generally less than about + or - 20 percent of the seasonal mean.

Identification, characteristics and seasonal evolution of surface thermal fronts in the Argentinean Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivas, Andrés L.; Pisoni, Juan Pablo

2010-01-01

The location and seasonal variability of surface thermal fronts along the Argentinean Continental Shelf (38-55°S) were studied using 18 years (1985-2002) of sea surface temperature (SST) satellite data. Monthly SST gradients were calculated and a threshold was used to identify frontal pixels. Frontal areas were classified into 4 zones according to their seasonal evolution and the main forcings leading to the front's formation were identified for each group. The shelf break front was easily detected due to the large number of frontal pixels in the region and its high mean gradient values. This front showed a marked annual cycle and relatively constant position associated to the bottom slope; it tended to be located where the core of the Malvinas current is closest to the shelf. Tidal fronts also showed a strong annual cycle, being detected in three well-defined regions during spring and summer. Along the coasts of Tierra del Fuego and Santa Cruz, the combination of strong tidal mixing and low-salinity coastal plumes led to semi-annual seasonal cycles of frontal intensity and persistence that showed a relative maximum in winter. A similar behavior (semi-annual) was found at the coast off the Buenos Aires Province. There, the coastal dilution and the bathymetric gradient generated near-coastal fronts that changed direction seasonally. In the northern mid-shelf, a front linked to the intrusion of warm waters formed in the San Matías Gulf was identified during the winter.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.

2013-09-01

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland Ice Sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB), a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation, Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

Seasonal variations of water vapor in the tropical lower statosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mote, Philip W.; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Holton, James R.; Harwood, Robert S.; Waters, Joe W.

1995-01-01

Measurments of stratospheric water vapor by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) show that in the tropical lower statosphere, low-frequency variations are closely related to the annual cycle in tropical tropopause temperatures. Tropical stratospheric air appears to retain information about the tropopause conditions it enconters for over a year as it rises through the stratosphere. A two-dimensional Lagrangian model is used to relate MLS measurements to the temperature that tropical air parcels encounter when crossing the 100 hPa surface.

Reconstruction of Arctic surface temperature in past 100 years using DINEOF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiyi; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

2015-04-01

Global annual mean surface temperature has not risen apparently since 1998, which is described as global warming hiatus in recent years. However, measuring of temperature variability in Arctic is difficult because of large gaps in coverage of Arctic region in most observed gridded datasets. Since Arctic has experienced a rapid temperature change in recent years that called polar amplification, and temperature risen in Arctic is faster than global mean, the unobserved temperature in central Arctic will result in cold bias in both global and Arctic temperature measurement compared with model simulations and reanalysis datasets. Moreover, some datasets that have complete coverage in Arctic but short temporal scale cannot show Arctic temperature variability for long time. Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Function (DINEOF) were applied to fill the coverage gap of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP 250km smooth) product in Arctic with IABP dataset which covers entire Arctic region between 1979 and 1998, and to reconstruct Arctic temperature in 1900-2012. This method provided temperature reconstruction in central Arctic and precise estimation of both global and Arctic temperature variability with a long temporal scale. Results have been verified by extra independent station records in Arctic by statistical analysis, such as variance and standard deviation. The result of reconstruction shows significant warming trend in Arctic in recent 30 years, as the temperature trend in Arctic since 1997 is 0.76°C per decade, compared with 0.48°C and 0.67°C per decade from 250km smooth and 1200km smooth of GISTEMP. And global temperature trend is two times greater after using DINEOF. The discrepancies above stress the importance of fully consideration of temperature variance in Arctic because gaps of coverage in Arctic cause apparent cold bias in temperature estimation. The result of global surface temperature also proves that global warming in recent years is not as slow as thought.

Use of Thermal Data to Estimate Infiltration in Pagany Wash Associated with the winter of 1997-1998 El Nino Precipitation, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

G.D. LeCain; N. lu; M. Kurzmack

Temperature and air-pressure monitoring in a vertical borehole located in Pagany Wash, a normally dry stream-carved channel northeast of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, indicated that the annual temperature wave was measurable to a depth of 11.1 m. Temperature depressions were measured at depths of 3.1, 6.1, 9.2, and 11.1 m below ground surface. The temperature depressions were interpreted to be the result of infiltration associated with the 1997-1998 El Nino precipitation. A pressure differential, of approximately 2 kiloPascals, between stations located 11.1 and 24.5 m below ground surface was interpreted to be the result of compressed air ahead of the wettingmore » front. The pressure differences between stations indicated that the wetting front migrated deeper than 35.2 m and that the Yucca Mountain Tuff retarded the downward movement of the wetting front. An analytical method indicated that the infiltration flux through the Pagany Wash alluvium due to the 1997-1998 El Nino precipitation was approximately 940 mm. A one-dimensional numerical model indicated that the infiltration flux was approximately 1000 mm. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the potential temperature decrease due to conduction was minimal and that cooler surface temperatures could not account for the measured subsurface temperature depressions.« less

Midwestern streamflow, precipitation, and atmospheric vorticity influenced by Pacific sea-surface temperatures and total solar-irradiance variations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, C.A.

2006-01-01

A solar effect on streamflow in the Midwestern United States is described and supported in a six-step physical connection between total solar irradiance (TSI), tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), extratropical SSTs, jet-stream vorticity, surface-layer vorticity, precipitation, and streamflow. Variations in the correlations among the individual steps indicate that the solar/hydroclimatic mechanism is complex and has a time element (lag) that may not be constant. Correct phasing, supported by consistent spectral peaks between 0.092 and 0.096 cycles per year in all data sets within the mechanism is strong evidence for its existence. A significant correlation exists between total solar irradiance and the 3-year moving average of annual streamflow for Iowa (R = 0.67) and for the Mississippi River at St Louis, Missouri (R = 0.60), during the period 1950-2000. Published in 2005 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A study of oceanic surface heat fluxes in the Greenland, Norwegian, and Barents Seas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Cavalieri, Donald J.

1989-01-01

This study examines oceanic surface heat fluxes in the Norwegian, Greenland, and Barents seas using the gridded Navy Fleet Numerical Oceanography Central surface analysis and the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) IIc cloudiness data bases. Monthly and annual means of net and turbulent heat fluxes are computed for the FGGE year 1979. The FGGE IIb data base consisting of individual observations provides particularly good data coverage in this region for a comparison with the gridded Navy winds and air temperatures. The standard errors of estimate between the Navy and FGGE IIb winds and air temperatures are 3.6 m/s and 2.5 C, respectively. The computations for the latent and sensible heat fluxes are based on bulk formulas with the same constant heat exchange coefficient of 0.0015. The results show extremely strong wintertime heat fluxes in the northern Greenland Sea and especially in the Barents Sea in contrast to previous studies.

Impact of spectral nudging on regional climate simulation over CORDEX East Asia using WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jianping; Wang, Shuyu; Niu, Xiaorui; Hui, Pinhong; Zong, Peishu; Wang, Xueyuan

2017-04-01

In this study, the impact of the spectral nudging method on regional climate simulation over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment East Asia (CORDEX-EA) region is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, five continuous simulations covering 1989-2007 are conducted by the WRF model, in which four runs adopt the interior spectral nudging with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validation shows that WRF has the ability to simulate spatial distributions and temporal variations of the surface climate (air temperature and precipitation) over CORDEX-EA domain. Comparably the spectral nudging technique is effective in improving the model's skill in the following aspects: (1), the simulated biases and root mean square errors of annual mean temperature and precipitation are obviously reduced. The SN3-UVT (spectral nudging with wavenumber 3 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U, V and T) and SN6 (spectral nudging with wavenumber 6 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U and V) experiments give the best simulations for temperature and precipitation respectively. The inter-annual and seasonal variances produced by the SN experiments are also closer to the ERA-Interim observation. (2), the application of spectral nudging in WRF is helpful for simulating the extreme temperature and precipitation, and the SN3-UVT simulation shows a clear advantage over the other simulations in depicting both the spatial distributions and inter-annual variances of temperature and precipitation extremes. With the spectral nudging, WRF is able to preserve the variability in the large scale climate information, and therefore adjust the temperature and precipitation variabilities toward the observation.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

2017-07-01

Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

Spatial and temporal stability of temperature in the first-level basins of China during 1951-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Yuting; Li, Peng; Xu, Guoce; Li, Zhanbin; Cheng, Shengdong; Wang, Bin; Zhao, Binhua

2018-05-01

In recent years, global warming has attracted great attention around the world. Temperature change is not only involved in global climate change but also closely linked to economic development, the ecological environment, and agricultural production. In this study, based on temperature data recorded by 756 meteorological stations in China during 1951-2013, the spatial and temporal stability characteristics of annual temperature in China and its first-level basins were investigated using the rank correlation coefficient method, the relative difference method, rescaled range (R/S) analysis, and wavelet transforms. The results showed that during 1951-2013, the spatial variation of annual temperature belonged to moderate variability in the national level. Among the first-level basins, the largest variation coefficient was 114% in the Songhuajiang basin and the smallest variation coefficient was 10% in the Huaihe basin. During 1951-2013, the spatial distribution pattern of annual temperature presented extremely strong spatial and temporal stability characteristics in the national level. The variation range of Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was 0.97-0.99, and the spatial distribution pattern of annual temperature showed an increasing trend. In the national level, the Liaohe basin, the rivers in the southwestern region, the Haihe basin, the Yellow River basin, the Yangtze River basin, the Huaihe basin, the rivers in the southeastern region, and the Pearl River basin all had representative meteorological stations for annual temperature. In the Songhuajiang basin and the rivers in the northwestern region, there was no representative meteorological station. R/S analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and the Morlet wavelet analysis of annual temperature showed that the best representative meteorological station could reflect the variation trend and the main periodic changes of annual temperature in the region. Therefore, strong temporal stability characteristics exist for annual temperature in China and its first-level basins. It was therefore feasible to estimate the annual average temperature by the annual temperature recorded by the representative meteorological station in the region. Moreover, it was of great significance to assess average temperature changes quickly and forecast future change tendencies in the region.

Turning up the heat: increasing temperature and coral bleaching at the high latitude coral reefs of the Houtman Abrolhos Islands.

PubMed

Abdo, David A; Bellchambers, Lynda M; Evans, Scott N

2012-01-01

Coral reefs face increasing pressures particularly when on the edge of their distributions. The Houtman Abrolhos Islands (Abrolhos) are the southernmost coral reef system in the Indian Ocean, and one of the highest latitude reefs in the world. These reefs have a unique mix of tropical and temperate marine fauna and flora and support 184 species of coral, dominated by Acropora species. A significant La Niña event during 2011 produced anomalous conditions of increased temperature along the whole Western Australian coastline, producing the first-recorded widespread bleaching of corals at the Abrolhos. We examined long term trends in the marine climate at the Abrolhos using historical sea surface temperature data (HadISST data set) from 1900-2011. In addition in situ water temperature data for the Abrolhos (from data loggers installed in 2008, across four island groups) were used to determine temperature exposure profiles. Coupled with the results of coral cover surveys conducted annually since 2007; we calculated bleaching thresholds for monitoring sites across the four Abrolhos groups. In situ temperature data revealed maximum daily water temperatures reached 29.54°C in March 2011 which is 4.2°C above mean maximum daily temperatures (2008-2010). The level of bleaching varied across sites with an average of ∼12% of corals bleached. Mortality was high, with a mean ∼50% following the 2011 bleaching event. Prior to 2011, summer temperatures reached a mean (across all monitoring sites) of 25.1°C for 2.5 days. However, in 2011 temperatures reached a mean of 28.1°C for 3.3 days. Longer term trends (1900-2011) showed mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by 0.01°C per annum. Long-term temperature data along with short-term peaks in 2011, outline the potential for corals to be exposed to more frequent bleaching risk with consequences for this high latitude coral reef system at the edge of its distribution.

Investigation and optimization of the depth of flue gas heat recovery in surface heat exchangers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bespalov, V. V.; Bespalov, V. I.; Melnikov, D. V.

2017-09-01

Economic issues associated with designing deep flue gas heat recovery units for natural gas-fired boilers are examined. The governing parameter affecting the performance and cost of surface-type condensing heat recovery heat exchangers is the heat transfer surface area. When firing natural gas, the heat recovery depth depends on the flue gas temperature at the condenser outlet and determines the amount of condensed water vapor. The effect of the outlet flue gas temperature in a heat recovery heat exchanger on the additionally recovered heat power is studied. A correlation has been derived enabling one to determine the best heat recovery depth (or the final cooling temperature) maximizing the anticipated reduced annual profit of a power enterprise from implementation of energy-saving measures. Results of optimization are presented for a surface-type condensing gas-air plate heat recovery heat exchanger for the climatic conditions and the economic situation in Tomsk. The predictions demonstrate that it is economically feasible to design similar heat recovery heat exchangers for a flue gas outlet temperature of 10°C. In this case, the payback period for the investment in the heat recovery heat exchanger will be 1.5 years. The effect of various factors on the optimal outlet flue gas temperature was analyzed. Most climatic, economical, or technological factors have a minor effect on the best outlet temperature, which remains between 5 and 20°C when varying the affecting factors. The derived correlation enables us to preliminary estimate the outlet (final) flue gas temperature that should be used in designing the heat transfer surface of a heat recovery heat exchanger for a gas-fired boiler as applied to the specific climatic conditions.

Determining Greenland Ice Sheet Accumulation Rates from Radar Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jezek, Kenneth C.

2002-01-01

An important component of NASA's Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a mass balance investigation of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The mass balance is calculated by taking the difference between the areally Integrated snow accumulation and the net ice discharge of the ice sheet. Uncertainties in this calculation Include the snow accumulation rate, which has traditionally been determined by interpolating data from ice core samples taken from isolated spots across the ice sheet. The sparse data associated with ice cores juxtaposed against the high spatial and temporal resolution provided by remote sensing , has motivated scientists to investigate relationships between accumulation rate and microwave observations as an option for obtaining spatially contiguous estimates. The objective of this PARCA continuation proposal was to complete an estimate of surface accumulation rate on the Greenland Ice Sheet derived from C-band radar backscatter data compiled in the ERS-1 SAR mosaic of data acquired during, September-November, 1992. An empirical equation, based on elevation and latitude, is used to determine the mean annual temperature. We examine the influence of accumulation rate, and mean annual temperature on C-band radar backscatter using a forward model, which incorporates snow metamorphosis and radar backscatter components. Our model is run over a range of accumulation and temperature conditions. Based on the model results, we generate a look-up table, which uniquely maps the measured radar backscatter, and mean annual temperature to accumulation rate. Our results compare favorably with in situ accumulation rate measurements falling within our study area.

Putting Climate Change on the Map: A Translation from Time to Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzeion, B.; Bethke, I.; Drange, H.

2009-04-01

By increasing the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouses gases, man is changing the physical geography of planet Earth. This message is often given to the public in form of rather abstract numbers, such as changes in the annual mean surface temperature. Therefore, one of the difficulties to overcome when educating the public about climate change is to translate these abstract numbers into everyday experiences - a task that is not easy given the statistical and thereby abstract definition of the term 'climate' itself. However, climate does not only vary with time, but also with space, and people generally have a better idea of what it would be like to live in another place, than to experience an annual mean temperature rise of e.g. 3 K. We used the model calculations from the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to translate the projected temperature change into a change of location: Each point on a geographical map is shifted to the closest location that in the year 2000 has the annual mean temperature that the point is projected to have at some time in the future. With this method, it is possible to create a new kind of accessible and visually appealing illustration of climate change, answering the question: Where do I have to go today to experience tomorrow's climate? Similarly, it is possible to answer a related question: Where would I have to move if I want to continue living in today's climate?

Drought variability and change across the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coll, J. R.; Aguilar, E.; Ashcroft, L.

2017-11-01

Drought variability and change was assessed across the Iberian Peninsula over more than 100 years expanding through the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first century. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 24 Iberian time series were quality controlled and homogenized to create the Monthly Iberian Temperature and Precipitation Series (MITPS) for the period 1906-2010. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), driven only by precipitation, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on the difference between the precipitation and the reference evapotranspiration (ET0), were computed at annual and seasonal scale to describe the evolution of droughts across time. The results confirmed that a clear temperature increase has occurred over the entire Iberian Peninsula at the annual and seasonal scale, but no significant changes in precipitation accumulated amounts were found. Similar drought variability was provided by the SPI and SPEI, although the SPEI showed greater drought severity and larger surface area affected by drought than SPI from 1980s to 2010 due to the increase in atmospheric evaporative demand caused by increased temperatures. Moreover, a clear drying trend was found by the SPEI for most of the Iberian Peninsula at annual scale and also for spring and summer, although the SPI did not experience significant changes in drought conditions. From the drying trend identified for most of the Iberian Peninsula along the twentieth century, an increase in drought conditions can also be expected for this region in the twenty-first century according to future climate change projections and scenarios.

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4°C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: A multi-proxy perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4??C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective.

PubMed

Dowsett, Harry J; Robinson, Marci M

2009-01-13

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4 degrees C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.

Role of surface-water and groundwater interactions on projected summertime streamflow in snow dominated regions : An integrated modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Justin L.; Niswonger, Richard G.

2012-01-01

Previous studies indicate predominantly increasing trends in precipitation across the Western United States, while at the same time, historical streamflow records indicate decreasing summertime streamflow and 25th percentile annual flows. These opposing trends could be viewed as paradoxical, given that several studies suggest that increased annual precipitation will equate to increased annual groundwater recharge, and therefore increased summertime flow. To gain insight on mechanisms behind these potential changes, we rely on a calibrated, integrated surface and groundwater model to simulate climate impacts on surface water/groundwater interactions using 12 general circulation model projections of temperature and precipitation from 2010 to 2100, and evaluate the interplay between snowmelt timing and other hydrologic variables, including streamflow, groundwater recharge, storage, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration. Hydrologic simulations show that the timing of peak groundwater discharge to the stream is inversely correlated to snowmelt runoff and groundwater recharge due to the bank storage effect and reversal of hydraulic gradients between the stream and underlying groundwater. That is, groundwater flow to streams peaks following the decrease in stream depth caused by snowmelt recession, and the shift in snowmelt causes a corresponding shift in groundwater discharge to streams. Our results show that groundwater discharge to streams is depleted during the summer due to earlier drainage of shallow aquifers adjacent to streams even if projected annual precipitation and groundwater recharge increases. These projected changes in surface water/groundwater interactions result in more than a 30% decrease in the projected ensemble summertime streamflow. Our findings clarify causality of observed decreasing summertime flow, highlight important aspects of potential climate change impacts on groundwater resources, and underscore the need for integrated hydrologic models in climate change studies.

Assessing the applicability of organic SST proxies in an upwelling region (Arabian Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lattaud, J.; van Erk, M. R.; Reichart, G. J.; Schulz, H.; S Sinninghe Damsté, J.; Schouten, S.

2017-12-01

Multiple organic proxies have the potential to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST), but their behaviour is not completely understood within upwelling areas. This holds in particular for the recently developed Long chain Diol Index1 (LDI), based on the ratio of 1,15-diols over 1,13-diols, both likely produced by Eustigmatophytes. We tested the applicability of the LDI by comparing it to the more established temperature proxies TEX86 and Uk¢37 in a sediment core (spanning the last 76 ky) from the northern Arabian Sea and in surface sediments (Pakistan margin). In the surface sediments, Uk¢37- and LDI-SSTs agree well with annual mean SST, but the TEX86-SST substantially overestimates SST. A better agreement is observed, when the 0-200 m TEX86 calibration is used, suggesting TEX86 reflects subsurface temperatures. The results from the sediment core reveal that the SST records differ in absolute reconstructed temperature and show different patterns. TEX86 subsurface temperatures show a continuous increase toward the Holocene and no stadial/interstadial differences, while the LDI-SST is constant around 26°C with the exception of some short-term cooling events during periods of intensified upwelling. The Uk¢37-SST varies between 22 and 26°C and follows the global δ18Obenthic foram curve and thus is representing mean annual SST in this region3. During stadials, the reduced monsoon and low upwelling intensity resulted in warming of the subsurface waters2, as indicated by higher TEX86 temperatures, while global cooling led to colder surface waters as reflected in lower Uk¢37-SSTs, thus reducing the thermal gradient in the water column2. During the interstadials, which are periods of strong upwelling3, there is a high proportion of 1,14-diols (>40%). This probably disturbs the LDI-SST signal because the diatoms that produce the 1,14-diols are also generating small amounts of the 1,13-diols4. This suggests that care has to be taken in applying the LDI in upwelling regions. References 1Rampen et al., 2012 2Tierney et al., 2015 3Emeis et al., 1995 4Rampen et al., 2007

Climatic conditions governing extensive Azolla bloom during the Middle Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dekker, Rolande; Speelman, Eveline N.; Barke, Judith; Konijnendijk, Tiuri; Sinninge Damste, Jaap S.; Reichart, Gert-Jan

2010-05-01

Enormous amounts of intact mega- and microspores from the free floating aquatic fern Azolla were found in sediments recovered during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program expedition 302, indicating that Azolla grew and reproduced in situ in the Eocene Arctic Ocean. In general, the Early/Middle Eocene is characterized by enhanced greenhouse conditions with elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Arctic (~10°C), while tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were only a little warmer than today (with a mean annual temperature (MAT) of 32-34 °C) (Pearson et al., 2007). The consequently reduced temperature gradient between the equator and the poles and the presence of freshwater at the North Pole as indicated by the presence of the freshwater fern Azolla (Brinkhuis et al., 2006) provide important boundary conditions for understanding the hydrological cycle and latent heat transport during this interval. Here we reconstruct variations in SST and mean annual air temperature using the TEX86 and MBT temperature proxies for the Azolla interval. Sediments from around the Arctic Basin have been analyzed, including samples from Alaska, the Mackenzie Basin, Greenland (IODP core 913b), and Denmark. Furthermore, a high resolution sea surface temperature record for the Azolla interval has been constructed from sediment samples from the Lomonosov Ridge, showing a cyclic signal. Model experiments have shown that the here confirmed low equator-to-pole temperature gradient modulated the hydrological cycle. Since the growth of Azolla is restricted to low salinity conditions, changes in the hydrological cycle are proposed to coincide with the cyclic occurrence of Azolla throughout the interval. To confirm the overlapping presence of high quantities of Azolla and increased precipitation, changes in the hydrogen cycle are reconstructed by creating a high resolution hydrogen isotope record throughout the interval. By performing compound specific analyses (δD) on terrestrial derived n-alkanes, extracted from Eocene Arctic sediment, an assessment of the δD of incoming Arctic precipitation and humidity can be made. In addition, hydrogen isotope analyses on Azolla specific biomarker (1, ω20 diols) is used to reconstruct the δD composition of the surface waters. The results from the compound specific isotope analyses are combined with the outcomes of a coupled-atmosphere-isotope model. This model shows a reconstruction of the isotopic composition of Arctic Eocene precipitation and run-off. Data-model integration will make it possible to mechanistically link Azolla occurrences and precipitation patterns.

Temperature-Induced Viral Resistance in Emiliania huxleyi (Prymnesiophyceae)

PubMed Central

Kendrick, B. Jacob; DiTullio, Giacomo R.; Cyronak, Tyler J.; Fulton, James M.; Van Mooy, Benjamin A. S.; Bidle, Kay D.

2014-01-01

Annual Emiliania huxleyi blooms (along with other coccolithophorid species) play important roles in the global carbon and sulfur cycles. E. huxleyi blooms are routinely terminated by large, host-specific dsDNA viruses, (Emiliania huxleyi Viruses; EhVs), making these host-virus interactions a driving force behind their potential impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Given projected increases in sea surface temperature due to climate change, it is imperative to understand the effects of temperature on E. huxleyi’s susceptibility to viral infection and its production of climatically active dimethylated sulfur species (DSS). Here we demonstrate that a 3°C increase in temperature induces EhV-resistant phenotypes in three E. huxleyi strains and that successful virus infection impacts DSS pool sizes. We also examined cellular polar lipids, given their documented roles in regulating host-virus interactions in this system, and propose that alterations to membrane-bound surface receptors are responsible for the observed temperature-induced resistance. Our findings have potential implications for global biogeochemical cycles in a warming climate and for deciphering the particular mechanism(s) by which some E. huxleyi strains exhibit viral resistance. PMID:25405345

Temperature-induced viral resistance in Emiliania huxleyi (Prymnesiophyceae).

PubMed

Kendrick, B Jacob; DiTullio, Giacomo R; Cyronak, Tyler J; Fulton, James M; Van Mooy, Benjamin A S; Bidle, Kay D

2014-01-01

Annual Emiliania huxleyi blooms (along with other coccolithophorid species) play important roles in the global carbon and sulfur cycles. E. huxleyi blooms are routinely terminated by large, host-specific dsDNA viruses, (Emiliania huxleyi Viruses; EhVs), making these host-virus interactions a driving force behind their potential impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Given projected increases in sea surface temperature due to climate change, it is imperative to understand the effects of temperature on E. huxleyi's susceptibility to viral infection and its production of climatically active dimethylated sulfur species (DSS). Here we demonstrate that a 3°C increase in temperature induces EhV-resistant phenotypes in three E. huxleyi strains and that successful virus infection impacts DSS pool sizes. We also examined cellular polar lipids, given their documented roles in regulating host-virus interactions in this system, and propose that alterations to membrane-bound surface receptors are responsible for the observed temperature-induced resistance. Our findings have potential implications for global biogeochemical cycles in a warming climate and for deciphering the particular mechanism(s) by which some E. huxleyi strains exhibit viral resistance.

The bivalve Glycymeris planicostalis as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for the Rupelian (Early Oligocene) of central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walliser, E. O.; Schöne, B. R.; Tütken, T.; Zirkel, J.; Grimm, K. I.; Pross, J.

2015-04-01

Current global warming is likely to result in a unipolar glaciated world with unpredictable repercussions on atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. These changes are expected to affect seasonal extremes and the year-to-year variability of seasonality. To better constrain the mode and tempo of the anticipated changes, climatologists require ultra-high-resolution proxy data of time intervals in the past, e.g., the Oligocene, during which boundary conditions were similar to those predicted for the near future. In the present paper, we assess whether such information can be obtained from shells of the long-lived bivalve mollusk Glycymeris planicostalis from the late Rupelian of the Mainz Basin, Germany. Our results indicate that the studied shells are pristinely preserved and provide an excellent archive for reconstructing changes of sea surface temperature on seasonal to interannual timescales. Shells of G. planicostalis grew uninterruptedly during winter and summer and therefore recorded the full seasonal temperature amplitude that prevailed in the Mainz Basin ~ 30 Ma. Absolute sea surface temperature data were reconstructed from δ18Oshell values assuming a δ18Owater signature that was extrapolated from coeval sirenian tooth enamel. Reconstructed values range between 12.3 and 22.0 °C and agree well with previous estimates based on planktonic foraminifera and shark teeth. However, temperatures during seasonal extremes vary greatly on interannual timescales. Mathematically re-sampled (i.e., corrected for uneven number of samples per annual increment) winter and summer temperatures averaged over 40 annual increments of three specimens equal 13.6 ± 0.8 and 17.3 ± 1.2 °C, respectively. Such high-resolution paleoclimate information can be highly relevant for numerical climate studies aiming to predict possible future climates in a unipolar glaciated or, ultimately, polar-ice-free world.

Modelling high Arctic deep permafrost temperature sensitivity in Northeast Greenland based on experimental and field observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, Laura Helene; Zhang, Wenxin; Hollesen, Jørgen; Cable, Stefanie; Hvidtfeldt Christiansen, Hanne; Jansson, Per-Erik; Elberling, Bo

2017-04-01

Permafrost affected areas in Greenland are expected to experience a marked temperature increase within decades. Most studies have considered near-surface permafrost sensitivity, whereas permafrost temperatures below the depths of zero annual amplitude is less studied despite being closely related to changes in near-surface conditions, such as changes in active layer thermal properties, soil moisture and snow depth. In this study, we measured the sensitivity of thermal conductivity (TC) to gravimetric water content (GWC) in frozen and thawed permafrost sediments from fine-sandy and gravelly deltaic and fine-sandy alluvial deposits in the Zackenberg valley, NE Greenland. We further calibrated a coupled heat and water transfer model, the "CoupModel", for one central delta sediment site with average snow depth and further forced it with meteorology from a nearby delta sediment site with a topographic snow accumulation. With the calibrated model, we simulated deep permafrost thermal dynamics in four 20-year scenarios with changes in surface temperature and active layer (AL) soil moisture: a) 3 °C warming and AL water table at 0.5 m depth; b) 3 °C warming and AL water table at 0.1 m depth; c) 6 °C warming and AL water table at 0.5 m depth and d) 6 °C warming and AL water table at 0.1 m depth. Our results indicate that frozen sediments have higher TC than thawed sediments. All sediments show a positive linear relation between TC and soil moisture when frozen, and a logarithmic one when thawed. Gravelly delta sediments were highly sensitive, but never reached above 12 % GWC, indicating a field effect of water retention capacity. Alluvial sediments are less sensitive to soil moisture than deltaic (fine and coarse) sediments, indicating the importance of unfrozen water in frozen sediment. The deltaic site with snow accumulation had 1 °C higher mean annual ground temperature than the average snow depth site. Permafrost temperature at the depth of 18 m increased with 1.5 °C and 3.5 °C in the scenarios with 3 °C and 6 °C warming, respectively. Increasing the soil moisture had no important additional effect to warming, although an increase in thermal offset was indicated. We conclude that below-ground sediment properties affect the sensitivity of TC to GWC, that surface temperature changes can influence the deep permafrost within a short time scale, and that differences in snow depth affect surface temperatures. Sediment type and the type of precipitation should thus be considered when estimating future High Arctic deep permafrost sensitivity.

A Computer-Based Atlas of Global Instrumental Climate Data (DB1003)

DOE Data Explorer

Bradley, Raymond S.; Ahern, Linda G.; Keimig, Frank T.

1994-01-01

Color-shaded and contoured images of global, gridded instrumental data have been produced as a computer-based atlas. Each image simultaneously depicts anomaly maps of surface temperature, sea-level pressure, 500-mbar geopotential heights, and percentages of reference-period precipitation. Monthly, seasonal, and annual composites are available in either cylindrical equidistant or northern and southern hemisphere polar projections. Temperature maps are available from 1854 to 1991, precipitation from 1851 to 1989, sea-level pressure from 1899 to 1991, and 500-mbar heights from 1946 to 1991. The source of data for the temperature images is Jones et al.'s global gridded temperature anomalies. The precipitation images were derived from Eischeid et al.'s global gridded precipitation percentages. Grids from the Data Support Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) were the sources for the sea-level-pressure and 500-mbar geopotential-height images. All images are in GIF files (1024 × 822 pixels, 256 colors) and can be displayed on many different computer platforms. Each annual subdirectory contains 141 images, each seasonal subdirectory contains 563 images, and each monthly subdirectory contains 1656 images. The entire atlas requires approximately 340 MB of disk space, but users may retrieve any number of images at one time.

Stream bed temperature profiles as indicators of percolation characteristics beneath arroyos in the middle Rio Grande Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, J.; Thomas, C.L.

1997-01-01

Stream bed temperature profiles were monitored continuously during water year 1990 and 1991 (WY90 and 91) in two New Mexico arroyos, similar in their meteorological features and dissimilar in their hydrological features. Stream bed temperature profiles between depths of 30 and 300 cm were examined to determine whether temporal changes in temperature profiles represent accurate indicators of the timing, depth and duration of percolation in each stream bed. These results were compared with stream flow, air temperature, and precipitation records for WY90 and 91, to evaluate the effect of changing surface conditions on temperature profiles. Temperature profiles indicate a persistently high thermal gradient with depth beneath Grantline Arroyo, except during a semi-annual thermal reversal in spring and autumn. This typifies the thermal response of dry sediments with low thermal conductivities. High thermal gradients were disrupted only during infrequent stream flows, followed by rapid re-establishment of high gradients. The stream bed temperature at 300 cm was unresponsive to individual precipitation or stream flow during WY90 and 91. This thermal pattern provides strong evidence that most seepage into Grantline Arroyo failed to percolate at a sufficient rate to reach 300 cm before being returned to the atmosphere. A distinctly different thermal pattern was recorded beneath Tijeras Arroyo. Low thermal gradients between 30 and 300 cm and large diurnal variations in temperature, suggest that stream flow created continuous, advection-dominated heat transport for over 300 days, annually. Beneath Tijeras Arroyo, low thermal gradients were interrupted only briefly during periodic, dry summer conditions. Comparisons of stream flow records for WY90 and 91 with stream bed temperature profiles indicate that independent analysis of thermal patterns provides accurate estimates of the timing, depth and duration of percolation beneath both arroyos. Stream flow loss estimates indicate that seepage rates were 15 times greater for Tijeras Arroyo than for Grantline Arroyo, which supports qualitative conclusions derived from analysis of stream bed temperature responses to surface conditions. ?? 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dust in the western U.S.: how biological, physical and human activities at the local scale interact to affect hydrologic function at the landscape scale (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belnap, J.; Reheis, M. C.; Munson, S. M.

2009-12-01

Dryland regions constitute over 35% of terrestrial lands around the globe. Limited rainfall in these regions restricts plant growth and the spaces between vascular plants are often large. Most interspace soils are protected from wind erosion by the cover of rocks, physical crusts, and biological crusts (cyanobacteria, lichens, and mosses). However, disturbance of the soil surface in dryland regions (e.g., recreation, livestock, mining and energy exploration, military exercises, fire) reduces or eliminates the protective cover of the soils. Rising temperatures will reduce soil moisture and thus plant cover. Wind tunnel data show that most desert surfaces produce little sediment under typical wind speeds. However, disturbing the soil surface with vehicles, humans, or animals resulted in much higher sediment production from all surfaces tested, regardless of parent material, texture, or age of the soil surface. Synergist effects, such as surface disturbance occurring during drought periods in annualized plant communities, can create very large dust events. As surface disturbance, invasion, and drought are expected to increase in the future, an increase in dust production can be expected as well. Increased particulates in the air threaten human well-being through disease, highway accidents, and economic losses. Where dust losses are greater than the inputs, the source areas lose carbon and nutrients. These compounds are transferred to high elevation regions, where such fertilization likely impacts ecosystem function. Deposition of dust on the snowpack darkens the surface, increasing snowmelt by 30 days or more and exposing soils to evaporation, all of which decrease the quantity and quality of water in major streams and rivers. As increases occur in temperature, pumping of shallow aquifers, human activities, and invasion of exotic annual plants in dryland regions, the frequency, severity, and negative impact of dust storms is expected to increase as well. The implications of these future changes will be discussed.

Assessing the Urban Heat Island Effect Across Biomes in the Continental USA Using Landsat and MODIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, Marc L.; Bounoua, L.; Zhang, Ping; Wolfe, Robert

2011-01-01

Impervious surface area (ISA) from the Landsat TM and land surface temperature (LST) from MODIS averaged over three annual cycles (2003-2005) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the urban heat island (UHI) skin temperature amplitude and its relationship to development intensity, size, and ecological setting for 38 of the most populous cities in the continental United States. Development intensity zones based on %ISA are defined across urban gradients and used to stratify sampling of LST and NDVI. We find that ecological context significantly influences the amplitude of summer daytime UHI (urban - rural temperature difference) with the largest 8 C (average) for cities built in mixed forest biomes. For all cities ISA is the primary driver for increase in temperature explaining 70% of the total variance. Annually, urban areas are warmer than the non-urban fringe by 2.9 C, except in biomes with arid and semiarid climates. The average amplitude of the UHI is asymmetric with a 4.3 C difference in summer and 1.3 C in winter. In desert environments, UHI's point to a possible heat sink effect. Results show that the urban heat island amplitude increases with city size and is seasonally asymmetric for a large number of cities across most biomes. The implications are that for urban areas developed within forested ecosystems the summertime UHI can be quite high relative to the wintertime UHI suggesting that the residential energy consumption required for summer cooling is likely to increase with urban growth within those biomes.

[Spatio-temporal analysis of the biophysical and ecological conditions of Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) in the northeast region of Colombia].

PubMed

Badel-Mogollón, Jaime; Rodríguez-Figueroa, Laura; Parra-Henao, Gabriel

2017-03-29

Due to the lack of information regarding biophysical and spatio-temporal conditions (hydrometheorologic and vegetal coverage density) in areas with Triatoma dimidiata in the Colombian departments of Santander and Boyacá, there is a need to elucidate the association patterns of these variables to determine the distribution and control of this species. To make a spatio-temporal analysis of biophysical variables related to the distribution of T. dimidiate observed in the northeast region of Colombia. We used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) data bases registering vector presence and hydrometheorologic data. We studied the variables of environmental temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and vegetal coverage density at regional and local levels, and we conducted spatial geostatistic, descriptive statistical and Fourier temporal series analyses. Temperatures two meters above the ground and on covered surface ranged from 14,5°C to 18,8°C in the areas with the higher density of T. dimidiata. The environmental temperature fluctuated between 30 and 32°C. Vegetal coverage density and rainfall showed patterns of annual and biannual peaks. Relative humidity values fluctuated from 66,8 to 85,1%. Surface temperature and soil coverage were the variables that better explained the life cycle of T. dimidiata in the area. High relative humidity promoted the seek of shelters and an increase of the geographic distribution in the annual and biannual peaks of regional rainfall. The ecologic and anthropic conditions suggest that T. dimidiata is a highly resilient species.

Rapid changes in the seasonal sea level cycle along the US Gulf coast in the early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Calafat, F. M.; Luther, M. E.

2013-12-01

The seasonal cycle is an energetic component in the sea level spectrum and dominates the intra-annual sea level variability outside the semidiurnal and diurnal tidal bands in most regions. Changes in the annual or semi-annual amplitudes or phase lags have an immediate impact on marine coastal systems. Increases in the amplitudes or phase shifts towards the storm surge season may for instance exacerbate the risk of coastal flooding and/or beach erosion, and the ecological health of estuarine systems is also coupled to the seasonal sea level cycle. Here, we investigate the temporal variability of the seasonal harmonics along the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastline using records from 13 tide gauges providing at least 30 years of data in total and at least 15 years for the period after 1990. The longest records go back to the early 20th century. Running Fourier analysis (with a window length of 5-years) is used to extract the seasonal harmonics from the observations. The resulting time series show a considerable decadal variability and no longer-term changes are found in the phase lags and the semi-annual amplitude. The amplitude of the dominating annual cycle in contrast shows a tendency towards higher values since the turn of the century at tide gauges in the eastern part of the GOM. This increase of up to more than 25% is found to be significant at the 90% confidence level for most tide gauges along the coastline of West Florida and at the 75% confidence level for virtually all stations in the eastern GOM (from Key West to Dauphin Island). Monthly mean sea level sub-series show that the changes are partly due to smaller values in the cold season but mostly a result of higher values in the warm season, i.e. sea levels tend to be higher during the hurricane season. We use information on the steric sea level component, sea surface and air temperature, wind forcing, precipitation, and sea level pressure to explain the mechanisms driving the decadal variability in the annual amplitude and the rapid increase over the last decade in the eastern GOM. We have developed several multiple regression models (MRM) with a varying number of independent predictors to reconstruct the temporal changes back to the mid and early 20th century (depending on data availability of the predictors). The models are able to explain up to 85% of the observed variability (70% on average across sites) and major parts of the rapid increase in the early 21st century. Multicollinearity between the predictors makes it difficult to quantify the contribution of individual parameters to the increase but sensitivity tests outline that changes in the annual cycle of the air surface temperature (which in turn directly propagates into the sea surface temperature) played a dominant role. The MRMs allow us to reconstruct the seasonal sea level cycle back to the early 20th century at all tide gauge sites and will be used in a follow-up study in combination with regional climate model output to assess potential future changes.

Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries

PubMed Central

Liu, Yu; Cobb, Kim M.; Song, Huiming; Li, Qiang; Li, Ching-Yao; Nakatsuka, Takeshi; An, Zhisheng; Zhou, Weijian; Cai, Qiufang; Li, Jinbao; Leavitt, Steven W.; Sun, Changfeng; Mei, Ruochen; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Chan, Ming-Hsun; Sun, Junyan; Yan, Libin; Lei, Ying; Ma, Yongyong; Li, Xuxiang; Chen, Deliang; Linderholm, Hans W.

2017-01-01

The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies. PMID:28555638

Terrestrial cooling in Northern Europe during the eocene-oligocene transition.

PubMed

Hren, Michael T; Sheldon, Nathan D; Grimes, Stephen T; Collinson, Margaret E; Hooker, Jerry J; Bugler, Melanie; Lohmann, Kyger C

2013-05-07

Geochemical and modeling studies suggest that the transition from the "greenhouse" state of the Late Eocene to the "icehouse" conditions of the Oligocene 34-33.5 Ma was triggered by a reduction of atmospheric pCO2 that enabled the rapid buildup of a permanent ice sheet on the Antarctic continent. Marine records show that the drop in pCO2 during this interval was accompanied by a significant decline in high-latitude sea surface and deep ocean temperature and enhanced seasonality in middle and high latitudes. However, terrestrial records of this climate transition show heterogeneous responses to changing pCO2 and ocean temperatures, with some records showing a significant time lag in the temperature response to declining pCO2. We measured the Δ47 of aragonite shells of the freshwater gastropod Viviparus lentus from the Solent Group, Hampshire Basin, United Kingdom, to reconstruct terrestrial temperature and hydrologic change in the North Atlantic region during the Eocene-Oligocene transition. Our data show a decrease in growing-season surface water temperatures (~10 °C) during the Eocene-Oligocene transition, corresponding to an average decrease in mean annual air temperature of ~4-6 °C from the Late Eocene to Early Oligocene. The magnitude of cooling is similar to observed decreases in North Atlantic sea surface temperature over this interval and occurs during major glacial expansion. This suggests a close linkage between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, Northern Hemisphere temperature, and expansion of the Antarctic ice sheets.

Aircraft and satellite remote sensing of desert soils and landscapes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petersen, G. W.; Connors, K. F.; Miller, D. A.; Day, R. L.; Gardner, T. W.

1987-01-01

Remote sensing data on desert soils and landscapes, obtained by the Landsat TM, Heat Capacity Mapping Mission (HCMM), Simulated SPOT, and Thermal IR Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) aboard an aircraft, are discussed together with the analytical techniques used in the studies. The TM data for southwestern Nevada were used to discriminate among the alluvial fan deposits with different degrees of desert pavement and varnish, and different vegetation cover. Thermal-IR data acquired from the HCMM satellite were used to map the spatial distribution of diurnal surface temperatures and to estimate mean annual soil temperatures in central Utah. Simulated SPOT data for northwestern New Mexico identified geomorphic features, such as differences in eolian sand cover and fluvial incision, while the TIMS data depicted surface geologic features of the Saline Valley in California.

Climatic Factors Driving Invasion of the Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into New Areas of Trentino, Northern Italy

PubMed Central

Castellani, Cristina; Arnoldi, Daniele; Rizzoli, Annapaola

2011-01-01

Background The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively. Conclusions/Significance MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas. PMID:21525991

Empirical analysis of the influence of forest extent on annual and seasonal surface temperatures for the Continental United States

Treesearch

James D. Wickham; Timothy G. Wade; Kurt H. Riitters

2013-01-01

Aim Because of the low albedo of forests and other biophysical factors, most scenario-based climate modelling studies indicate that removal of temperate forest will promote cooling, indicating that temperate forests are a source of heat relative to other classes of land cover. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that US temperate forests reduce...

Permafrost investigation in the Mont Blanc massif steep rock walls: a combined measurement, modelling and geophysical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnin, Florence; Deline, Philip; Ravanel, Ludovic; Gruber, Stephan; Krautblatter, Michael

2014-05-01

The steep rockwalls of the Mont Blanc massif have been affected by an increase in rockfall activity in the last decades. Permafrost degradation is suggested as the most likely triggering factor. To better understand geomorphic processes we investigate permafrost distribution and address questions on its pattern in steep alpine bedrock. We use GIS-modeling to simulate Mean Annual Rock Surface Temperature (MARST) distribution. Rock temperature measurements including three 10-m-deep borehole monitoring at the Aiguille du Midi (AdM, 3842 m a.s.l) serve to estimate the temperature offset (i.e. temperature difference between rock surface and depth of negligible inter-annual temperature varibility). The estimation of the lower extent of permafrost distribution is derived from a combination of both approaches and hypotheses on permafrost occurrence are evaluated with Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) measurements. The MARST model indicates that the 0°C isotherm extends down to 2600 m a.s.l in the most shaded faces and rises up to 3800 m in the most sun-exposed areas. According to recent literature and the AdM borehole thermal profiles, we postulate that permafrost could extends down below MARST reaching up to 3°C due to temperature offset processes. ERT measurements performed along 160-m-long profiles at six different sites which the top are located from 3360 m a.s.l to 2760 m a.s.l and the MARST range from <-1°C to > 3°C are the first of this kind. Five of sites are located in the granite area making them directly comparable. They all show high resistivity values at depth (>200 kΩ) interpreted as permafrost bodies. Lower resistivity values (< 90 kΩ) are found either above the high resistivity bodies and interpreted as thawed active layer, or below MARST warmer than 2-3°C and interpreted as non-perenially frozen rock. Two sites were measured in autumn 2012 and autumn 2013 allowing for time-lapse investigation which demonstrates the change in resistivity in repeated measurements. These preliminary results could confirm that steep alpine bedrock permafrost exists below surface temperature reaching up to 3°C. A temperature-resistivity calibration will be performed in a freezing laboratory at the Technical University of Munich to better assess ERT results and their interpretation in terms of permafrost occurrence and interannual changes.

Annual soil CO_{2} production in Moscow Botanical Garden (Russia).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udovenko, Maria; Goncharova, Olga; Matyshak, Georgy

2017-04-01

Soil respiration is an essential component of the carbon cycle, determining 25-40 % of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Urban soils are subject to significant anthropogenic influences. Anthropogenic impact affects both the plants and the soil microbiota. So, soil CO2 efflux and soil profile CO2 concentration probably differ in urban and natural soils. Influence of abiotic factors on soil carbon dioxide production is explored insufficiently. The research of their impact on soil carbon dioxide production is necessary to predict soil response to anthropogenic climate change. The aim of this study was estimation of annual soil CO2 production and the impact of climatic factors on it. The research took place in Moscow State University Botanical Garden Arboretum (southern taiga). Investigations were carried out at two sites: the areas planted with Picea obovata and Carpinus betulus. The study was conducted with 1-2 weeks intervals between November 2014 and December 2015. Emission measurement were carried out by closed chamber technique, profile concentration were measured by soil air sampling tubes method. Annual carbon dioxide soil surface efflux of soil planted with Picea obovata was 1370 gCO2/(m2 * year), soil planted with Carpinus betulus - 1590 gCO2/(m2 * year). Soil CO2 concentration increased with depth in average of 3300 to 12000 ppm (at 80 cm depth). Maximum concentration values are confined to the end of vegetation period (high biological activity) and to beginning of spring (spring ice cover of soil prevents CO2 emission). Soil CO2 efflux depends on soil temperature at 10 cm depth (R = 0.89; p <0.05), in a less degree it correlate with soil surface temperature and with soil temperature at 20 cm depth (r=0.88; p<0.05). Soil moisture has a little effect on CO2 efflux in the annual cycle (r=-0.16; p<0.05). However in vegetation period efflux of carbon dioxide largely depends on soil moisture, due to the fact, that soil moisture is limiting factor for soil microbiota activity and plant respiration.

Seasonal and latitudinal variations of surface fluxes at two Arctic terrestrial sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grachev, Andrey A.; Persson, P. Ola G.; Uttal, Taneil; Akish, Elena A.; Cox, Christopher J.; Morris, Sara M.; Fairall, Christopher W.; Stone, Robert S.; Lesins, Glen; Makshtas, Alexander P.; Repina, Irina A.

2017-11-01

This observational study compares seasonal variations of surface fluxes (turbulent, radiative, and soil heat) and other ancillary atmospheric/surface/permafrost data based on in-situ measurements made at terrestrial research observatories located near the coast of the Arctic Ocean. Hourly-averaged multiyear data sets collected at Eureka (Nunavut, Canada) and Tiksi (East Siberia, Russia) are analyzed in more detail to elucidate similarities and differences in the seasonal cycles at these two Arctic stations, which are situated at significantly different latitudes (80.0°N and 71.6°N, respectively). While significant gross similarities exist in the annual cycles of various meteorological parameters and fluxes, the differences in latitude, local topography, cloud cover, snowfall, and soil characteristics produce noticeable differences in fluxes and in the structures of the atmospheric boundary layer and upper soil temperature profiles. An important factor is that even though higher latitude sites (in this case Eureka) generally receive less annual incoming solar radiation but more total daily incoming solar radiation throughout the summer months than lower latitude sites (in this case Tiksi). This leads to a counter-intuitive state where the average active layer (or thaw line) is deeper and the topsoil temperature in midsummer are higher in Eureka which is located almost 10° north of Tiksi. The study further highlights the differences in the seasonal and latitudinal variations of the incoming shortwave and net radiation as well as the moderating cloudiness effects that lead to temporal and spatial differences in the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer and the uppermost ground layer. Specifically the warm season (Arctic summer) is shorter and mid-summer amplitude of the surface fluxes near solar noon is generally less in Eureka than in Tiksi. During the dark Polar night and cold seasons (Arctic winter) when the ground is covered with snow and air temperatures are sufficiently below freezing, the near-surface environment is generally stably stratified and the hourly averaged turbulent fluxes are quite small and irregular with on average small downward sensible heat fluxes and upward latent heat and carbon dioxide fluxes. The magnitude of the turbulent fluxes increases rapidly when surface snow disappears and the air temperatures rise above freezing during spring melt and eventually reaches a summer maximum. Throughout the summer months strong upward sensible and latent heat fluxes and downward carbon dioxide (uptake by the surface) are typically observed indicating persistent unstable (convective) stratification. Due to the combined effects of day length and solar zenith angle, the convective boundary layer forms in the High Arctic (e.g., in Eureka) and can reach long-lived quasi-stationary states in summer. During late summer and early autumn all turbulent fluxes rapidly decrease in magnitude when the air temperature decreases and falls below freezing. Unlike Eureka, a pronounced zero-curtain effect consisting of a sustained surface temperature hiatus at the freezing point is observed in Tiksi during fall due to wetter and/or water saturated soils.

The Effect of Soil Temperature Seasonality on Climate Reconstructions from Paleosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, T. M.; Hren, M. T.; Sheldon, N. D.

2017-12-01

Accurate continental temperature reconstructions provide important constraints on climate sensitivity to changes in atmospheric pCO2, the timing and rates of tectonic uplift, and the driving mechanisms and feedbacks associated with major climate events. Temperature seasonality is an important variable to consider, because not only does it exert a strong control on the biosphere, but it can obfuscate changes in mean annual air temperature (MAAT) in the geologic record. In order to better understand the effect temperature seasonality has on paleosol temperature proxies, soil temperature data was compiled from over 200 stations that comprise the NCDC Soil Climate Analysis Network. Observed soil temperature variations were then compared to predicted soil temperature values based on normal seasonal air temperature trends. Approximately one quarter of sites record less temperature variation than predicted. This reduction in soil temperature seasonality is a result of warmer than predicted cold-season temperatures, driven by cold-season processes such as snow cover insulation. The reduction in soil temperature seasonality explains why pedo-transfer functions to break down below MAAT values of 6-8 °C. Greater than predicted soil temperature seasonality is observed at nearly half of the sites, driven primarily by direct heating of the soil surface by solar radiation. Deviations larger than 2 °C are not common until mean annual precipitation falls below 300 mm, suggesting that complications introduced by ground heating are primarily restricted to paleosols that formed in more arid environments. Clumped isotope measurements of pedogenic carbonate and bulk paleosol elemental data from a stacked series of paleosols spanning the Eocene-Oligocene in Northeastern Spain are also examined to demonstrate how the documented seasonal trends in modern soils can help inform paleo-applications.

The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterkamp, T. E.

2005-12-01

This paper reports results of an experiment initiated in 1977 to determine the effects of climate on permafrost in Alaska. Permafrost observatories with boreholes were established along a north-south transect of Alaska in undisturbed permafrost terrain. The analysis and interpretation of annual temperature measurements in the boreholes and daily temperature measurements of the air, ground and permafrost surfaces made with automated temperature loggers are reported. Permafrost temperatures warmed along this transect coincident with a statewide warming of air temperatures that began in 1977. At two sites on the Arctic Coastal Plain, the warming was seasonal, greatest during "winter" months (October through May) and least during "summer" months (June through September). Permafrost temperatures peaked in the early 1980s and then decreased in response to slightly cooler air temperatures and thinner snow covers. Arctic sites began warming again typically about 1986 and Interior Alaska sites about 1988. Gulkana, the southernmost site, has been warming slowly since it was drilled in 1983. Air temperatures were relatively warm and snow covers were thicker-than-normal from the late 1980s into the late 1990s allowing permafrost temperatures to continue to warm. Temperatures at some sites leveled off or cooled slightly at the turn of the century. Two sites (Yukon River Bridge and Livengood) cooled during the period of observations. The magnitude of the total warming at the surface of the permafrost (through 2003) was 3 to 4 °C for the Arctic Coastal Plain, 1 to 2 °C for the Brooks Range including its northern and southern foothills, and 0.3 to 1 °C south of the Yukon River. While the data are sparse, permafrost is warming throughout the region north of the Brooks Range, southward along the transect from the Brooks Range to the Chugach Mountains (except for Yukon River and Livengood), in Interior Alaska throughout the Tanana River region, and in the region south of the Alaska Range from Tok westward to Gulkana (in the Copper River Valley) and beyond to the Talkeetna Mountains. Thermal offset allows permafrost to survive in the presence of positive annual mean ground surface temperatures and was observed repeatedly since 1987 at two sites. The observed warming has not produced an increasing trend in maximum active layer thicknesses due to its seasonality. Near Healy, permafrost has been thawing at the top since the late 1980s at about 10 cm/yr. At Gulkana, permafrost was thawing from the bottom at a rate of 4 cm/yr that accelerated to 9 cm/yr after 2000.

Potential predictability of Northern America surface temperature in AGCMs and CGCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Youmin; Chen, Dake; Yan, Xiaoqin

2015-07-01

In this study, the potential predictability of the Northern America (NA) surface air temperature (SAT) was explored using an information-based predictability framework and two multiple model ensemble products: a one-tier prediction by coupled models (T1), and a two-tier prediction by atmospheric models only (T2). Furthermore, the potential predictability was optimally decomposed into different modes for both T1 and T2, by extracting the most predictable structures. Emphasis was placed on the comparison of the predictability between T1 and T2. It was found that the potential predictability of the NA SAT is seasonal and spatially dependent in both T1 and T2. Higher predictability occurs in spring and winter and over the southeastern US and northwestern Canada. There is no significant difference of potential predictability between T1 and T2 for most areas of NA, although T1 has higher potential predictability than T2 in the southeastern US. Both T1 and T2 display similar most predictable components (PrCs) for the NA SAT, characterized by the inter-annual variability mode and the long-term trend mode. The first one is inherent to the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forcing, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, whereas the second one is closely associated with global warming. In general, the PrC modes can better characterize the predictability in T1 than in T2, in particular for the inter-annual variability mode in the fall. The prediction skill against observations is better measured by the PrC analysis than by principal component analysis for all seasons, indicating the stronger capability of PrCA in extracting prediction targets.

Tropical North Atlantic Coral-Based Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity Reconstructions From the Little Ice Age and Early Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saenger, C.; Cohen, A.; Oppo, D.; Hubbard, D.

2006-12-01

Understanding the magnitude and spatial extent of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) cooling during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 A.D.; LIA) is important for elucidating low-latitude paleoclimate, but present estimates are poorly constrained. We used Sr/Ca and δ18O variability within the aragonitic skeleton of the coral genus Montastrea to reconstruct SST and sea surface salinity (SSS) during the LIA and early Holocene (EH) in the tropical Atlantic. Four seasonally-resolved coral Sr/Ca records from St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Bermuda indicate SST is highly correlated (r2 = 0.94) with modern Montastrea Sr/Ca and mean annual coral extension. A Sr/Ca -SST calibration that combines temperature and growth rate effects on coral Sr/Ca was applied to fossil St. Croix corals to reconstruct Caribbean climate during 5-10 year intervals of the LIA (440 ± 30 yBP) and EH (7200 ± 30; EH). Contrary to previous coral-based LIA proxy reconstructions, we find mean SST during the LIA was similar to today, but approximately 1.2°C cooler during the EH. Both periods exhibited higher amplitude seasonal variability indicating other SST estimates may be seasonally biased. Based on residual coral δ18O, we find the LIA and EH were saltier, which suggests previous cooling estimates of 1-3°C relative to today may be exaggerated by changes in seawater δ18O. Our results are consistent with a southerly migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the LIA, but their corroboration requires longer, high-resolution proxy reconstructions that place our two brief multi-annual coral records from the LIA and EH, respectively, within the context of multi-decadal variability.

Climatological observations and predicted sublimation rates at Lake Hoare, Antarctica.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, G.D.; McKay, C.P.; Simmons, G.M.; Wharton, R.A.

1988-01-01

In December 1985, an automated meteorological station was established at Lake Hoare in the dry valley region of Antarctica. Here, we report on the first year-round observations available for any site in Taylor Valley. This dataset augments the year-round data obtained at Lake Vanda (Wright Valley) by winter-over crews during the late 1960s and early 1970s. The mean annual solar flux at Lake Hoare was 92 W m-2 during 1986, the mean air temperature -17.3 degrees C, and the mean 3-m wind speed 3.3 m s-1. The local climate is controlled by the wind regime during the 4-month sunless winter and by seasonal and diurnal variations in the incident solar flux during the remainder of the year. Temperature increases of 20 degrees-30 degrees C are frequently observed during the winter due to strong fo??hn winds descending from the Polar Plateau. A model incorporating nonsteady molecular diffusion into Kolmogorov-scale eddies in the interfacial layer and similarity-theory flux-profiles in the surface sublayer, is used to determine the rate of ice sublimation from the acquired meteorological data. Despite the frequent occurrence of strong winter fo??hns, the bulk of the annual ablation occurs during the summer due to elevated temperatures and persistent moderate winds. The annual ablation from Lake Hoare is estimated to have been 35.0 +/- 6.3 cm for 1986.

A 400-Year Ice Core Melt Layer Record of Summertime Warming in the Alaska Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winski, Dominic; Osterberg, Erich; Kreutz, Karl; Wake, Cameron; Ferris, David; Campbell, Seth; Baum, Mark; Bailey, Adriana; Birkel, Sean; Introne, Douglas; Handley, Mike

2018-04-01

Warming in high-elevation regions has societally important impacts on glacier mass balance, water resources, and sensitive alpine ecosystems, yet very few high-elevation temperature records exist from the middle or high latitudes. While a variety of paleoproxy records provide critical temperature records from low elevations over recent centuries, melt layers preserved in alpine glaciers present an opportunity to develop calibrated, annually resolved temperature records from high elevations. Here we present a 400-year temperature proxy record based on the melt layer stratigraphy of two ice cores collected from Mt. Hunter in Denali National Park in the central Alaska Range. The ice core record shows a sixtyfold increase in water equivalent total annual melt between the preindustrial period (before 1850 Common Era) and present day. We calibrate the melt record to summer temperatures based on weather station data from the ice core drill site and find that the increase in melt production represents a summer warming rate of at least 1.92 ± 0.31°C per century during the last 100 years, exceeding rates of temperature increase at most low-elevation sites in Alaska. The Mt. Hunter melt layer record is significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific through a Rossby wave-like pattern that enhances high temperatures over Alaska. Our results show that rapid alpine warming has taken place in the Alaska Range for at least a century and that conditions in the tropical oceans contribute to this warming.

Eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature annual cycle in the Kiel climate model: simulation benefits from enhancing atmospheric resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wengel, C.; Latif, M.; Park, W.; Harlaß, J.; Bayr, T.

2018-05-01

A long-standing difficulty of climate models is to capture the annual cycle (AC) of eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we first examine the EEP SST AC in a set of integrations of the coupled Kiel Climate Model, in which only atmosphere model resolution differs. When employing coarse horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution, significant biases in the EEP SST AC are observed. These are reflected in an erroneous timing of the cold tongue's onset and termination as well as in an underestimation of the boreal spring warming amplitude. A large portion of these biases are linked to a wrong simulation of zonal surface winds, which can be traced back to precipitation biases on both sides of the equator and an erroneous low-level atmospheric circulation over land. Part of the SST biases also is related to shortwave radiation biases related to cloud cover biases. Both wind and cloud cover biases are inherent to the atmospheric component, as shown by companion uncoupled atmosphere model integrations forced by observed SSTs. Enhancing atmosphere model resolution, horizontal and vertical, markedly reduces zonal wind and cloud cover biases in coupled as well as uncoupled mode and generally improves simulation of the EEP SST AC. Enhanced atmospheric resolution reduces convection biases and improves simulation of surface winds over land. Analysis of a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) reveals that in these models, very similar mechanisms are at work in driving EEP SST AC biases.

Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Palecki, M.A.

2006-01-01

Principal components analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD) are used to identify the primary modes of decadal and multidecadal variability in annual global Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values and sea-surface temperature (SSTs). The PDSI and SST data for 1925-2003 were detrended and smoothed (with a 10-year moving average) to isolate the decadal and multidecadal variability. The first two principal components (PCs) of the PDSI PCA explained almost 38% of the decadal and multidecadal variance in the detrended and smoothed global annual PDSI data. The first two PCs of detrended and smoothed global annual SSTs explained nearly 56% of the decadal variability in global SSTs. The PDSI PCs and the SST PCs are directly correlated in a pairwise fashion. The first PDSI and SST PCs reflect variability of the detrended and smoothed annual Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as detrended and smoothed annual Indian Ocean SSTs. The second set of PCs is strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The SVD analysis of the cross-covariance of the PDSI and SST data confirmed the close link between the PDSI and SST modes of decadal and multidecadal variation and provided a verification of the PCA results. These findings indicate that the major modes of multidecadal variations in SSTs and land-surface climate conditions are highly interrelated through a small number of spatially complex but slowly varying teleconnections. Therefore, these relations may be adaptable to providing improved baseline conditions for seasonal climate forecasting. Published in 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methane emission from high-latitude (>50N) lakes: Annual cycle of climatological emissions using satellite-derived lake-ice phenology and freeze-thaw dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, E.; Romanski, J.; Du, J.; Watts, J. D.

2017-12-01

Lakes are increasingly recognized as potentially important contributors to global methane emissions despite occupying only a few percent of Earth's ice-free land surface. More than 40% of the global lake area lies in regions of amplified warming north of 50˚N. As with wetlands, lake emissions are sensitive to interannual fluctuations in, e.g., temperature and duration of thaw season. Several estimates of CH4emission from high-latitude lakes have been published but none relies on geospatial lake distributions and satellite-based duration and timing of thaw seasons. We report on a climatology of weekly, spatially-explicit methane emissions from high-latitude lakes. Lake break-up and freeze-up dates for lakes >50km^2 were determined from a lake-ice phenology data set derived from brightness temperature (Tb) observations of space-borne Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E/2) sensors. The lake-ice conditions for smaller lakes were estimated using an Earth System Data Record for Land Surface Freeze-Thaw State derived from Tb observations of Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), and SSM/I Sounder (SSMIS). Climatologies encompass 2002-2015 for lake ice phenology and 1979 to 2010 for the land surface freeze-thaw state. Climatologies encompass 2003-2014 for ice phenology and 1979 to 2010 for freeze-thaw dynamics. Length and timing of typical methane-emission periods, derived from the satellite data, were integrated with daily diffusive and ebulliative methane fluxes for lake types following the work of Wik et al. (Nature, 2016) to estimate a full annual cycle of emissions from lakes >50˚N. We explored several approaches to estimate the large bursts of emissions observed over short periods during lake-ice breakup immediately prior to full lake thaw since several studies suggest that a substantial fraction of total annual emissions may occur at this time. While highly uncertain, we plan to investigate whether the modest, short-lived but annual uptick in atmospheric methane concentrations in late winter/early spring may be associated with these bursts of methane from lakes.

Stratospheric Impact of Varying Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Nielsen, Jon E.; Waugh, Darryn; Pawson, Steven

2004-01-01

The Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM) has been run in 50 year simulations with the: 1) 1949-1999 Hadley Centre sea surface temperatures (SST), and 2) a fixed annual cycle of SSTs. In this presentation we first show that the 1949-1999 FVGCM simulation produces a very credible stratosphere in comparison to an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis climatology. In particular, the northern hemisphere has numerous major and minor stratospheric warming, while the southern hemisphere has only a few over the 50-year simulation. During the northern hemisphere winter, temperatures are both warmer in the lower stratosphere and the polar vortex is weaker than is found in the mid-winter southern hemisphere. Mean temperature differences in the lower stratosphere are shown to be small (less than 2 K), and planetary wave forcing is found to be very consistent with the climatology. We then will show the differences between our varying SST simulation and the fixed SST simulation in both the dynamics and in two parameterized trace gases (ozone and methane). In general, differences are found to be small, with subtle changes in planetary wave forcing that lead to reduced temperatures in the SH and increased temperatures in the NH.

Effects of clouds on the Earth radiation budget; Seasonal and inter-annual patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dhuria, Harbans L.

1992-01-01

Seasonal and regional variations of clouds and their effects on the climatological parameters were studied. The climatological parameters surface temperature, solar insulation, short-wave absorbed, long wave emitted, and net radiation were considered. The data of climatological parameters consisted of about 20 parameters of Earth radiation budget and clouds of 2070 target areas which covered the globe. It consisted of daily and monthly averages of each parameter for each target area for the period, Jun. 1979 - May 1980. Cloud forcing and black body temperature at the top of the atmosphere were calculated. Interactions of clouds, cloud forcing, black body temperature, and the climatological parameters were investigated and analyzed.

Strong seepage of shallow groundwater shifts the timing of the annual thermal signals in stream water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, M. A.; Johnson, Z. C.; Snyder, C.; Hitt, N. P.; White, E. A.; Lane, J. W., Jr.; Nelms, D. L.

2016-12-01

Conventional wisdom indicates that while short-term (e.g. diurnal) thermal variance in streams may be attenuated by groundwater seepage, annual temperature swings will essentially track the local air temperature signal. However, the temperature of shallow (less than 5 m depth) groundwater from seepage zones may not be constant and near the local mean air temperature, but instead will fluctuate seasonally, and show a pronounced phase lag from the annual air signal. The degree of phase lag will be dependent on the rate of vertical fluid and heat exchange through shallow aquifer sediments. Gaining headwater streams might be expected to adopt similar phase lags to local seepage zones. We explore these dynamics through 9 mountain watersheds in Shenandoah National Park, VA, USA that harbor critical habitat for cold-water brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). Daily paired air and stream water temperature records were collected for up to 5 years at several stream locations along each watershed. Sinusoids fit to multiple-year data from more than 100 total locations indicate an average phase shift from air to surface water of approximately 10 d; this may primarily be due to strong conductive exchange with the rocky alluvial aquifer in generally incised and shaded channels. A subset of these transects (n=4) showed phase-lags greater than 20 d, coinciding with locations of particularly pronounced diurnal variance attenuation, indicating strong groundwater influence. Shallow bedrock, evaluated throughout the watersheds with passive seismic methods, restricts downward infiltration of precipitation in the mountain bedrock aquifers. Numerical 1D vertical aquifer models indicate similar phase lags in shallow groundwater at the bedrock contact to that observed in stream seepage zones. Therefore, contrary to conventional wisdom, shaded mountain streams with strong groundwater influence may adopt the annual thermal signature of the adjacent aquifer, shifting the stream thermal maxima timing from that predicted by air temperature. This research illustrates the utility of long-term paired air/stream thermal records, which further refine the evaluation of apparent groundwater influence to aquatic habitat.

Generation of liquid water on Mars through the melting of a dusty snowpack

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, G.D.

1987-01-01

The possibility that snowmelt could have provided liquid water for valley network formation early in the history of Mars is investigated using an optical-thermal model developed for dusty snowpacks at temperate latitudes. The heating of the postulated snow is assumed to be driven primarily by the absorption of solar radiation during clear sky conditions. Radiative heating rates are predicted as a function of depth and shown to be sensitive to the dust concentration and the size of the ice grains while the thermal conductivity is controlled by temperature, atmospheric pressure, and bulk density. Rates of metamorphism indicate that fresh fine-grained snow on Mars would evolve into moderately coarse snow during a single summer season. Results from global climate models are used to constrain the mean-annual surface temperatures for snow and the atmospheric exchange terms in the surface energy balance. Mean-annual temperatures within Martian snowpacks fail to reach the melting point for all atmospheric pressures below 1000 mbar despite a predicted temperature enhancement beneath the surface of the snowpacks. When seasonal and diurnal variations in the incident solar flux are included in the model, melting occurs at midday during the summer for a wide range of snow types and atmospheric pressures if the dust levels in the snow exceed 100 ppmw (parts per million by weight). The optimum dust concentration appears to be about 1000 ppmw. With this dust load, melting can occur in the upper few centimeters of a dense coarse-grained snow at atmospheric pressures as low as 7 mbar. Snowpack thickness and the thermal conductivity of the underlying substrate determine whether the generated snow-melt can penetrate to the snowpack base, survive basal ice formation, and subsequently become available for runoff. Under favorable conditions, liquid water becomes available for runoff at atmospheric pressures as low as 30 to 100 mbar if the substrate is composed of regolith, as is expected in the ancient cratered terrain of Mars. ?? 1987.

[Paleoclimate of La Guajira, Colombia; by the growth rings of Capparis odoratissima (Capparidaceae)].

PubMed

Ramírez, Jorge Andrés; Ignacio del Valle, Jorge

2011-09-01

There is great concern about the effect of climate change in arid and subarid areas of the tropics. Climate change combined with other anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, fires and over-grazing can accelerate their degradation and, consequently, the increases in losses of biological and economic productivity. Climate models, both local and global, predict that rainfall in the arid Peninsula of La Guajira in the Colombian Caribbean would be reduced and temperature would be increased as a result of climate change. However, as there are only suitable climate records since 1972, it is not possible to verify if, indeed, this is happening. To try to verify the hypothesis of reducing rainfall and rising temperatures we developed a growth ring chronology of Capparis odoratissima in the Middle Peninsula of La Guajira with 17 trees and 45 series which attain 48 years back. We use standard dendrochronological methods that showed statistically significant linear relationship with local climatic variables such as air temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), annual precipitation and wind speed; we also reach to successful relationship of the chronology with global climatic variables as the indices SOI and MEI of the ENSO phenomenon. The transfer functions estimated with the time series (1955 and 2003) do not showed statistically significant trends, indicating that during this period of time the annual precipitation or temperatures have not changed. The annual nature of C. odoratissima growth rings, the possibility of cross-dated among the samples of this species, and the high correlation with local and global climatic variables indicate a high potential of this species for dendrochronological studies in this part of the American continent.

Recent accelerated warming of the continental shelf off New Jersey: Observations from the CMV Oleander expendable bathythermograph line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsyth, Jacob Samuel Tse; Andres, Magdalena; Gawarkiewicz, Glen G.

2015-03-01

Expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) have been launched along a repeat track from New Jersey to Bermuda from the CMV Oleander through the NOAA/NEFSC Ship of Opportunity Program about 14 times per year since 1977. The XBT temperatures on the Middle Atlantic Bight shelf are binned with 10 km horizontal and 5 m vertical resolution to produce monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged cross-shelf temperature sections. The depth-averaged shelf temperature, Ts, calculated from annually averaged sections that are spatially averaged across the shelf, increases at 0.026 ± 0.001°C yr-1 from 1977 to 2013, with the recent trend substantially larger than the overall 37 year trend (0.11 ± 0.02°C yr-1 since 2002). The Oleander temperature sections suggest that the recent acceleration in warming on the shelf is not confined to the surface, but occurs throughout the water column with some contribution from interactions between the shelf and the adjacent Slope Sea reflected in cross-shelf motions of the shelfbreak front. The local warming on the shelf cannot explain the region's amplified rate of sea level rise relative to the global mean. Additionally, Ts exhibits significant interannual variability with the warmest anomalies increasing in intensity over the 37 year record even as the cold anomalies remain relatively uniform throughout the record. Ts anomalies are not correlated with annually averaged coastal sea level anomalies at zero lag. However, positive correlation is found between 2 year lagged Ts anomalies and coastal sea level anomalies, suggesting that the region's sea level anomalies may serve as a predictor of shelf temperature.

Combined Geothermal Potential of Subsurface Urban Heat Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benz, Susanne; Bayer, Peter; Menberg, Kathrin; Blum, Philipp

2016-04-01

The subsurface urban heat island (SUHI) can be seen as a geothermal potential in form of elevated groundwater temperatures caused by anthropogenic heat fluxes into the subsurface. In this study, these fluxes are quantified for an annual timeframe in two German cities, Karlsruhe and Cologne. Our two-dimensional (2D) statistical analytical model determines the renewable and sustainable geothermal potential caused by six vertical anthropogenic heat fluxes into the subsurface: from (1) elevated ground surface temperatures, (2) basements, (3) sewage systems, (4) sewage leakage, (5) subway tunnels, and (6) district heating networks. The results show that at present 2.15 ± 1.42 PJ and 0.99 ± 0.32 PJ of heat are annually transported into the shallow groundwater of Karlsruhe and Cologne, respectively, due to anthropogenic heat fluxes into the subsurface. This is sufficient to sustainably cover 32% and 9% of the annual residential space heating demand of Karlsruhe and Cologne, respectively. However, most of the discussed anthropogenic fluxes into the subsurface are conductive heat fluxes and therefore dependent on the groundwater temperature itself. Accordingly, a decrease in groundwater temperature back to its natural (rural) state, achieved through the use of geothermal heat pumps, will increase these fluxes and with them the sustainable potential. Hence, we propose the introduction of a combined geothermal potential that maximizes the sustainability of urban shallow geothermal energy use and the efficiency of shallow geothermal systems by balancing groundwater temperature with anthropogenic heat fluxes into the subsurface. This will be a key element in the development of a demand-oriented, cost-efficient geothermal management tool with an additional focus on the sustainability of the urban heat sources.

Downwelling Longwave Fluxes at Continental Surfaces-A Comparison of Observations with GCM Simulations and Implications for the Global Land-Surface Radiation Budget.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Prata, A. J.

1996-03-01

Previous work suggests that general circulation (global climate) models have excess net radiation at land surfaces, apparently due to overestimates in downwelling shortwave flux and underestimates in upwelling long-wave flux. Part of this excess, however, may be compensated for by an underestimate in downwelling longwave flux. Long term observations of the downwelling longwave component at several land stations in Europe, the United States, Australia, and Antarctica suggest that climate models (four are used, as in previous studies) underestimate this flux component on an annual basis by up to 10 W m2, yet with low statistical significance. It is probable that the known underestimate in boundary-layer air temperature contributes to this, as would low model cloudiness and neglect of minor gases such as methane, nitrogen oxide, and the freons. The bias in downwelling longwave flux, together with those found earlier for downwelling shortwave and upwlling long-wave fluxes, are consistent with the model bias found previously for net radiation. All annually averaged fluxes and biases are deduced for global land as a whole.

Upwellings mitigated Plio-Pleistocene heat stress for reef corals on the Florida platform (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brachert, Thomas C.; Reuter, Markus; Krüger, Stefan; Kirkerowicz, Julia; Klaus, James S.

2016-03-01

The fast growing calcareous skeletons of zooxanthellate reef corals (z corals) represent unique environmental proxy archives through their oxygen and carbon stable isotope composition (δ18O, δ13C). In addition, the accretion of the skeleton itself is ultimately linked to the environment and responds with variable growth rates (extension rate) and density to environmental changes. Here we present classical proxy data (δ18O, δ13C) in combination with calcification records from 15 massive z corals. The z corals were sampled from four interglacial units of the Florida carbonate platform (USA) dated approximately 3.2, 2.9, 1.8 and 1.2 Ma (middle Pliocene to early Pleistocene). The z corals (Solenastrea, Orbicella, Porites) derive from unlithified shallow marine carbonates and were carefully screened for primary preservation suited for proxy analysis. We show that skeletal accretion responded with decreasing overall calcification rates (decreasing extension rate but increasing density) to warmer water temperatures. Under high annual water temperatures, inferred from sub-annually resolved δ18O data, skeletal bulk density was high, but extension rates and overall calcification rates were at a minimum (endmember scenario 1). Maximum skeletal density was reached during the summer season giving rise to a growth band of high density within the annually banded skeletons ("high density band", HDB). With low mean annual water temperatures (endmember scenario 2), bulk skeletal density was low but extension rates and calcification rates reached a maximum, and under these conditions the HDB formed during winter. Although surface water temperatures in the Western Atlantic warm pool during the interglacials of the late Neogene were ˜ 2 °C higher than they are in the present day, intermittent upwelling of cool, nutrient-rich water mitigated water temperatures off south-western Florida and created temporary refuges for z coral growth. Based on the sub-annually resolved δ18O and δ13C records, the duration of the upwelling episodes causing the endmember 2 conditions was variable and lasted from a few years to a number of decades. The episodes of upwelling were interrupted by phases without upwelling (endmember 1) which lasted for at least a few years and led to high surface water temperatures. This variable environment is likely one of the reasons why the coral fauna is dominated by the eurytopic genus Solenastrea, also a genus resistant to high turbidity. Over a period of ˜ 50 years, the oldest sub annually resolved proxy record available (3.2 Ma) documents a persistent occurrence of the HDB during winter. In contrast, the HDB forms in summer in modern z corals from the Florida reef tract. We suggest this difference should be tested as being the expression of a tendency towards decreasing interglacial upwelling since the middle Pliocene. The number of z coral sclerochronological records for the Plio-Pleistocene is still rather low, however, and requires more data and an improved resolution, through records from additional time slices. Nonetheless, our calcification data from the warm periods of past interglacials may contribute to predicting the effects of future ocean warming on z coral health along the Florida reef tract. The inconsistent timing of the HDB within single coral records or among specimens and time slices is unexpected and contrasts the common practice of establishing chronologies on the basis of the density banding.

Confounding effects of oxygen and temperature on the TEX86 signature of marine Thaumarchaeota

PubMed Central

Qin, Wei; Carlson, Laura T.; Armbrust, E. Virginia; Devol, Allan H.; Moffett, James W.; Stahl, David A.; Ingalls, Anitra E.

2015-01-01

Marine ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) are among the most abundant of marine microorganisms, spanning nearly the entire water column of diverse oceanic provinces. Historical patterns of abundance are preserved in sediments in the form of their distinctive glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) membrane lipids. The correlation between the composition of GDGTs in surface sediment and the overlying annual average sea surface temperature forms the basis for a paleotemperature proxy (TEX86) that is used to reconstruct surface ocean temperature as far back as the Middle Jurassic. However, mounting evidence suggests that factors other than temperature could also play an important role in determining GDGT distributions. We here use a study set of four marine AOA isolates to demonstrate that these closely related strains generate different TEX86–temperature relationships and that oxygen (O2) concentration is at least as important as temperature in controlling TEX86 values in culture. All of the four strains characterized showed a unique membrane compositional response to temperature, with TEX86-inferred temperatures varying as much as 12 °C from the incubation temperatures. In addition, both linear and nonlinear TEX86–temperature relationships were characteristic of individual strains. Increasing relative abundance of GDGT-2 and GDGT-3 with increasing O2 limitation, at the expense of GDGT-1, led to significant elevations in TEX86-derived temperature. Although the adaptive significance of GDGT compositional changes in response to both temperature and O2 is unclear, this observation necessitates a reassessment of archaeal lipid-based paleotemperature proxies, particularly in records that span low-oxygen events or underlie oxygen minimum zones. PMID:26283385

Water resources data for Kansas, water year 1973; Part 2, Water quality records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diaz, A.M.; Albert, C.D.

1974-01-01

Water-resources data for the 1973 water year for Kansas include records of data for the chemical and physical characteristics of surface and ground water. Data on the quality of surface water (chemical, microbiological, temperature, and sediment) were collected from designated sampling sites at predetermined intervals such as once daily, weekly, monthly, or less frequently, and at some sites data were recorded on punched paper tape at 60-minute intervals. Records are given for 70 sampling stations of which 7 are partial-record stations, and for 51 miscellaneous sites. Miscellaneous temperatures of streamflow are given for 77 gaging stations, and records of chemical analyses are given for 224 ground-water sites. Locations of surface water-quality stations are shown in Figure 1, page 2. Records for pertinent water-quality stations in bordering States are also included. The records were collected by the Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey under the direction of C. W. Lane, district chief. These data represent that portion of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Kansas. Kansas District personnel who contributed significantly to the collection and preparation of data included in this report were: B. L. Day, L. R. Shelton, M. L. Penny, L. R. Stringer, and D. J. Dark (Kansas State Department of Health).The Geological Survey has published records of chemical quality, suspended sediment, and water temperatures since 1941 in annual series of water-supply papers entitled, "Quality of Surface Waters of the United States." Beginning with the 1964 water year, water-quality records also have been released by the Geological Survey in annual reports on a State-boundary basis. Distribution of these reports is limited; they are designed primarily for rapid release of data shortly after the end of the water year to meet local needs. These records will be published later in Geological Survey water-supply papers.

Surface-atmosphere decoupling limits accumulation at Summit, Greenland.

PubMed

Berkelhammer, Max; Noone, David C; Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Bailey, Adriana; Cox, Christopher J; O'Neill, Michael S; Schneider, David; Steffen, Konrad; White, James W C

2016-04-01

Despite rapid melting in the coastal regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a significant area (~40%) of the ice sheet rarely experiences surface melting. In these regions, the controls on annual accumulation are poorly constrained owing to surface conditions (for example, surface clouds, blowing snow, and surface inversions), which render moisture flux estimates from myriad approaches (that is, eddy covariance, remote sensing, and direct observations) highly uncertain. Accumulation is partially determined by the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure, which influences the maximum humidity of air parcels reaching the ice sheet interior. However, independent proxies for surface temperature and accumulation from ice cores show that the response of accumulation to temperature is variable and not generally consistent with a purely thermodynamic control. Using three years of stable water vapor isotope profiles from a high altitude site on the Greenland Ice Sheet, we show that as the boundary layer becomes increasingly stable, a decoupling between the ice sheet and atmosphere occurs. The limited interaction between the ice sheet surface and free tropospheric air reduces the capacity for surface condensation to achieve the rate set by the humidity of the air parcels reaching interior Greenland. The isolation of the surface also acts to recycle sublimated moisture by recondensing it onto fog particles, which returns the moisture back to the surface through gravitational settling. The observations highlight a unique mechanism by which ice sheet mass is conserved, which has implications for understanding both past and future changes in accumulation rate and the isotopic signal in ice cores from Greenland.

Surface-atmosphere decoupling limits accumulation at Summit, Greenland

PubMed Central

Berkelhammer, Max; Noone, David C.; Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Bailey, Adriana; Cox, Christopher J.; O’Neill, Michael S.; Schneider, David; Steffen, Konrad; White, James W. C.

2016-01-01

Despite rapid melting in the coastal regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a significant area (~40%) of the ice sheet rarely experiences surface melting. In these regions, the controls on annual accumulation are poorly constrained owing to surface conditions (for example, surface clouds, blowing snow, and surface inversions), which render moisture flux estimates from myriad approaches (that is, eddy covariance, remote sensing, and direct observations) highly uncertain. Accumulation is partially determined by the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure, which influences the maximum humidity of air parcels reaching the ice sheet interior. However, independent proxies for surface temperature and accumulation from ice cores show that the response of accumulation to temperature is variable and not generally consistent with a purely thermodynamic control. Using three years of stable water vapor isotope profiles from a high altitude site on the Greenland Ice Sheet, we show that as the boundary layer becomes increasingly stable, a decoupling between the ice sheet and atmosphere occurs. The limited interaction between the ice sheet surface and free tropospheric air reduces the capacity for surface condensation to achieve the rate set by the humidity of the air parcels reaching interior Greenland. The isolation of the surface also acts to recycle sublimated moisture by recondensing it onto fog particles, which returns the moisture back to the surface through gravitational settling. The observations highlight a unique mechanism by which ice sheet mass is conserved, which has implications for understanding both past and future changes in accumulation rate and the isotopic signal in ice cores from Greenland. PMID:27386509

Evaluating long-term patterns of decreasing groundwater discharge through a lake-bottom permeable reactive barrier.

PubMed

McCobb, Timothy D; Briggs, Martin A; LeBlanc, Denis R; Day-Lewis, Frederick D; Johnson, Carole D

2018-05-18

Identifying and quantifying groundwater exchange is critical when considering contaminant fate and transport at the groundwater/surface-water interface. In this paper, areally distributed temperature and point seepage measurements are used to efficiently assess spatial and temporal groundwater discharge patterns through a glacial-kettle lakebed area containing a zero-valent iron permeable reactive barrier (PRB). Concern was that the PRB was becoming less permeable with time owing to biogeochemical processes within the PRB. Patterns of groundwater discharge over an 8-year period were examined using fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) and snapshot-in-time point measurements of temperature. The resulting thermal maps show complex and uneven distributions of temperatures across the lakebed and highlight zones of rapid seepage near the shoreline and along the outer boundaries of the PRB. Repeated thermal mapping indicates an increase in lakebed temperatures over time at periods of similar stage and surface-water temperature. Flux rates in six seepage meters permanently installed on the lakebed in the PRB area decreased on average by 0.021 md -1 (or about 4.5 percent) annually between 2004 and 2015. Modeling of diurnal temperature signals from shallow vertical profiles yielded mean flux values ranging from 0.39 to 1.15 md -1 , with stronger fluxes generally related to colder lakebed temperatures. The combination of an increase in lakebed temperatures, declines in direct seepage, and observations of increased cementation of the lakebed surface provide in situ evidence that the permeability of the PRB is declining. The presence of temporally persistent rapid seepage zones is also discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armal, S.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2017-12-01

This study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1,244 stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: Trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies, or to a combination of cyclical climate modes with varying quasi-periodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypotheses is made based on Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1,244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to the El Nino Southern Oscillations, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the Northwest, West and Southwest climate regions.

Karst Groundwater Hydrologic Analyses Based on Aerial Thermography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, C. Warren; Keith, A. G.

2000-01-01

On February 23, 1999, thermal imagery of Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama was collected using an airborne thermal camera. Ground resolution was I in. Approximately 40 km 2 of thermal imagery in and around Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) was analyzed to determine the location of springs for groundwater monitoring. Subsequently, forty-five springs were located ranging in flow from a few ml/sec to approximately 280 liter/sec. Groundwater temperatures are usually near the mean annual surface air temperature. On thermography collected during the winter, springs show up as very warm spots. Many of the new springs were submerged in lakes, streams, or swamps; consequently, flow measurements were difficult. Without estimates of discharge, the impacts of contaminated discharge on surface streams would be difficult to evaluate. An approach to obtaining an estimate was developed using the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System (CORMIX). The thermography was queried to obtain a temperature profile down the center of the surface plume. The spring discharge was modeled with CORMIX, and the flow adjusted until the surface temperature profile was matched. The presence of volatile compounds in some of the new springs also allowed MSFC to unravel the natural system of solution cavities of the karst aquifer. Sampling results also showed that two springs on either side of a large creek had the same water source so that groundwater was able to pass beneath the creek.

The surface climatology of the Ross Ice Shelf Antarctica.

PubMed

Costanza, Carol A; Lazzara, Matthew A; Keller, Linda M; Cassano, John J

2016-12-01

The University of Wisconsin-Madison Antarctic Automatic Weather Station (AWS) project has been making meteorological surface observations on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) for approximately 30 years. This network offers the most continuous set of routine measurements of surface meteorological variables in this region. The Ross Island area is excluded from this study. The surface climate of the RIS is described using the AWS measurements. Temperature, pressure, and wind data are analysed on daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time periods for 13 AWS across the RIS. The AWS are separated into three representative regions - central, coastal, and the area along the Transantarctic Mountains - in order to describe specific characteristics of sections of the RIS. The climatology describes general characteristics of the region and significant changes over time. The central AWS experiences the coldest mean temperature, and the lowest resultant wind speed. These AWSs also experience the coldest potential temperatures with a minimum of 209.3 K at Gill AWS. The AWS along the Transantarctic Mountains experiences the warmest mean temperature, the highest mean sea-level pressure, and the highest mean resultant wind speed. Finally, the coastal AWS experiences the lowest mean pressure. Climate indices (MEI, SAM, and SAO) are compared to temperature and pressure data of four of the AWS with the longest observation periods, and significant correlation is found for most AWS in sea-level pressure and temperature. This climatology study highlights characteristics that influence the climate of the RIS, and the challenges of maintaining a long-term Antarctic AWS network. Results from this effort are essential for the broader Antarctic meteorology community for future research.

El Niño-based malaria epidemic warning for Oromia, Ethiopia, from August 2016 to July 2017.

PubMed

Bouma, M J; Siraj, A S; Rodo, X; Pascual, M

2016-11-01

Tropical highland malaria intensifies and shifts to higher altitudes during exceptionally warm years. Above-normal temperatures associated with El Niño during boreal winter months (December-March) may intensify malaria in East African highlands. We assessed the malaria risk for Oromia, the largest region of Ethiopia with around 30 million inhabitants. Simple linear regression and spatial analyses were used to associate sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific and surface temperatures in Ethiopia with annual malaria risk in Oromia, based on confirmed cases of malaria between 1982 and 2005. A strong association (R 2 = 0.6, P < 0.001) was identified between malaria and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, anticipating a 70% increase in malaria risk for the period from August 2016 to July 2017. This forecast was quantitatively supported by elevated land surface temperatures (+1.6 °C) in December 2015. When more station data become available and mean March 2016 temperatures from meteorological stations can be taken into account, a more robust prediction can be issued. An epidemic warning is issued for Oromia, Ethiopia, between August 2016 and July 2017 and may include the pre-July short malaria season. Similar relationships reported for Madagascar point to an epidemic risk for all East African highlands with around 150 million people. Preparedness for this high risk period would include pre-emptive intradomestic spraying with insecticides, adequate stocking of antimalarials, and spatial extension of diagnostic capacity and more frequent reporting to enable a rapid public health response when and where required. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On Effective Radiative Forcing of Partial Internally and Externally Mixed Aerosols and Their Effects on Global Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chen; Zhang, Hua; Zhao, Shuyun; Li, Jiangnan

2018-01-01

The total effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to partial internally mixed (PIM) and externally mixed (EM) anthropogenic aerosols, as well as their climatic effects since the year of 1850, was evaluated and compared using the aerosol-climate online coupled model of BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero. The influences of internal mixing (IM) on aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, optical properties, and concentration were considered. Generally, IM could markedly weaken the negative ERF and cooling effects of anthropogenic aerosols. The global annual mean ERF of EM anthropogenic aerosols from 1850 to 2010 was -1.87 W m-2, of which the aerosol-radiation interactive ERF (ERFari) and aerosol-cloud interactive ERF (ERFaci) were -0.49 and -1.38 W m-2, respectively. The global annual mean ERF due to PIM anthropogenic aerosols from 1850 to 2010 was -1.23 W m-2, with ERFari and ERFaci of -0.23 and -1.01 W m-2, respectively. The global annual mean surface temperature and water evaporation and precipitation were reduced by 1.74 K and 0.14 mm d-1 for EM scheme and 1.28 K and 0.11 mm d-1 for PIM scheme, respectively. However, the relative humidity near the surface was slightly increased for both mixing cases. The Intertropical Convergence Zone was southwardly shifted for both EM and PIM cases but was less southwardly shifted in PIM scheme due to the less reduction in atmospheric temperature in the midlatitude and low latitude of the Northern Hemisphere.

Evaluation of Historical and Projected Surface Air Temperature Simulations over China in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.; Frauenfeld, O. W.

2013-12-01

Projections of future temperature in China are crucial for assessments of climate change and implementation of appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. With the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) was developed for assessing the latest state-of-the-art climate models and their projections. In this study, monthly surface air temperature from 20 CMIP5 models and four experiments (historical, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) were used to investigate the temperature variability over China during the 20th century, and future changes for the 21st century. Two observational datasets (CRU TS 3.1 and the global terrestrial air temperature dataset from the University of Delaware) were adopted to evaluate the performance of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble average, the performance of individual models, as well as the possible improvements in CMIP5 relative to CMIP3. Results show that both CMIP3 and CMIP5 have cold biases over most parts of China. CMIP5 displays a slightly better agreement with the observations than CMIP3, but substantial cold biases still exist over the Tibetan Plateau, especially in the cold season. These biases are also characterized by the greatest discrepancies among the individual models, indicating the models' limitations over this mountainous region. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 show poor agreement with observed 20th-century temperature trends such that the spatial and seasonal patterns of the trends are not captured in the multimodel ensemble averages. Comparing individual models we find that MPI-ESM-LR, CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and CCSM4 exhibit better skill than the other models in this part of the world. Projections of future temperature suggest that there will be a gradual increase in annual surface air temperature in China during the 21st century at a rate of 0.60°C/decade and 0.27°C/decade under the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively. RCP 2.6 shows the slowest warming at a rate of 0.10°C/decade for the whole 21st century, but temperature will increase until 2040, and then remain stable or even decrease slightly. Based on the three emission scenarios, annual temperatures are projected to rise by 1.7-5.7°C by the end of the 21st century, and the greatest warming will occur over northern China and the Tibetan Plateau.

MARSTHERM: A Web-based System Providing Thermophysical Analysis Tools for Mars Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putzig, N. E.; Barratt, E. M.; Mellon, M. T.; Michaels, T. I.

2013-12-01

We introduce MARSTHERM, a web-based system that will allow researchers access to a standard numerical thermal model of the Martian near-surface and atmosphere. In addition, the system will provide tools for the derivation, mapping, and analysis of apparent thermal inertia from temperature observations by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the Mars Odyssey Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS). Adjustable parameters for the thermal model include thermal inertia, albedo, surface pressure, surface emissivity, atmospheric dust opacity, latitude, surface slope angle and azimuth, season (solar longitude), and time steps for calculations and output. The model computes diurnal surface and brightness temperatures for either a single day or a full Mars year. Output options include text files and plots of seasonal and diurnal surface, brightness, and atmospheric temperatures. The tools for the derivation and mapping of apparent thermal inertia from spacecraft data are project-based, wherein the user provides an area of interest (AOI) by specifying latitude and longitude ranges. The system will then extract results within the AOI from prior global mapping of elevation (from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter, for calculating surface pressure), TES annual albedo, and TES seasonal and annual-mean 2AM and 2PM apparent thermal inertia (Putzig and Mellon, 2007, Icarus 191, 68-94). In addition, a history of TES dust opacity within the AOI is computed. For each project, users may then provide a list of THEMIS images to process for apparent thermal inertia, optionally overriding the TES-derived dust opacity with a fixed value. Output from the THEMIS derivation process includes thumbnail and context images, GeoTIFF raster data, and HDF5 files containing arrays of input and output data (radiance, brightness temperature, apparent thermal inertia, elevation, quality flag, latitude, and longitude) and ancillary information. As a demonstration of capabilities, we will present results from a thermophysical study of Gale Crater (Barratt and Putzig, 2013, EPSC abstract 613), for which TES and THEMIS mapping has been carried out during system development. Public access to the MARSTHERM system will be provided in conjunction with the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting and will feature the numerical thermal model and thermal-inertia derivation algorithm developed by Mellon et al. (2000, Icarus 148, 437-455) as modified by Putzig and Mellon (2007, Icarus 191, 68-94). Updates to the thermal model and derivation algorithm that include a more sophisticated representation of the atmosphere and a layered subsurface are presently in development, and these will be incorporated into the system when they are available. Other planned enhancements include tools for modeling temperatures from horizontal mixtures of materials and slope facets, for comparing heterogeneity modeling results to TES and THEMIS results, and for mosaicking THEMIS images.

Variability of precipitation in Poland under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szwed, Małgorzata

2018-02-01

The surface warming has been widespread over the entire globe. Central Europe, including Poland, is not an exception. Global temperature increases are accompanied by changes in other climatic variables. Climate change in Poland manifests itself also as change in annual sums of precipitation. They have been slightly growing but, what is more important, seasonal and monthly distributions of precipitation have been also changing. The most visible increases have been observed during colder half-year, especially in March. A decreasing contribution of summer precipitation total (June-August) to the annual total is observed. Climate projections for Poland predict further warming and continuation of already observed changes in the quantity of precipitation as well as its spatial and seasonal distribution.

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, C. S.; Brooks, V.

1997-01-01

This paper describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness relationship for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes If the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980's in order to refine our understanding of intra-annual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global 1o gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: degree days (growing/chilling), annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the geographic variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same annual climate index values from the previous year explains no substantial additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes is closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from lo grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI for several different years at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes are not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude zones, mixed and disturbed vegetation types, and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Snowmelt Timing as a Determinant of Lake Inflow Mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, D. C.; Forrest, A. L.; Sahoo, G. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schladow, S. G.

2018-02-01

Snowmelt is a significant source of carbon, nutrient, and sediment loads to many mountain lakes. The mixing conditions of snowmelt inflows, which are heavily dependent on the interplay between snowmelt and lake thermal regime, dictate the fate of these loads within lakes and their ultimate impact on lake ecosystems. We use five decades of data from Lake Tahoe, a 600 year residence-time lake where snowmelt has little influence on lake temperature, to characterize the snowmelt mixing response to a range of climate conditions. Using stream discharge and lake profile data (1968-2017), we find that the proportion of annual snowmelt entering the lake prior to the onset of stratification increases as annual snowpack decreases, ranging from about 50% in heavy-snow years to close to 90% in warm, dry years. Accordingly, in 8 recent years (2010-2017) where hourly inflow buoyancy and discharge could be quantified, we find that decreased snowpack similarly increases the proportion of annual snowmelt entering the lake at weak to positive buoyancy. These responses are due to the stronger effect of winter precipitation conditions on streamflow timing and temperature than on lake stratification, and point toward increased nearshore and near-surface mixing of inflows in low-snowpack years. The response of inflow mixing conditions to snowpack is apparent when isolating temperature effects on snowpack. Snowpack levels are decreasing due to warming temperatures during winter precipitation. Thus, our findings suggest that climate change may lead to increased deposition of inflow loads in the ecologically dynamic littoral zone of high-residence time, snowmelt-fed lakes.

Spatial and Temporal Temperature trends on Iraq during 1980-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Timimi, Yassen K.; Al-Khudhairy, Aws A.

2018-05-01

Monthly Mean surface air temperature at 23 stations in Iraq were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation during 1980-2015. Seasonal and annual temperature was analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the significant trend. The results of temporal analysis showed that during winter, spring, summer and Autumn have a positive trend in all the parts of Iraq. A tendency has also been observed towards warmer years, with significantly warmer summer and spring periods and slightly warmer autumn and winter, the highest increase is (3.5)°C in Basrah during the summer. The results of spatial analyze using the ArcGIS showed that the seasonal temperature can be divided into two or three distinct areas with high temperature in the south and decreasing towards north, where the trend of spatial temperature were decreasing from south to the north in all the four seasons.

Project SQUID. Quarterly Progress Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1948-04-01

connection with temperature measurements we are investigating the infrared emission of the pulse jet. We have a lead sulphide cell which, when...formed on an 11% chrome-iron alloy when oxidized in oxygen at a pressure of one millimeter of mercury (sumnarized in the Annual Report, 1947) show...work has been obtained recently. 36 TABLE I Surface Structures Formed on a 27% Chrome-Iron Oxidized in Dry Oxygen at One Millimeter Mercury

Radiation measurements from polar and geosynchronous satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonderhaar, T. H.; Kidder, S. Q.; Hillger, D. W.; Ellis, J. S.

1978-01-01

The following topics are discussed: (1) cloud effects in climate determination; (2) annual variation in the global heat balance of the earth; (3) the accuracy of precipitation estimates made from passive microwave measurements from satellites; (4) seasonal oceanic precipitation frequencies; (5) determination of mesoscale temperature and moisture fields over land from satellite radiance measurements; and (6) Nimbus 6 scanning microwave spectrometer data evaluation for surface wind and pressure components in tropical storms.

Environmental controls on leaf wax δD ratios in surface peats across the monsoonal region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Xue, J.; Wang, X.; Meyers, P. A.

2015-09-01

Leaf wax molecular and isotopic ratios are generally considered robust isotopic paleohydrologic proxies. Here we evaluate the proxy value of the molecular distributions and hydrogen isotopic compositions of long chain n-alkanes (δDalk) in surface peats collected from peatlands across a range of annual air temperatures from 1 to 15 °C and a range of annual mean precipitation from 720 to 2070 mm in the monsoonal region of China. The alkane ratios (ACL and CPI) and δDalk values show relatively large variations in multiple samples from a single site, highlighting the complexity of these ratios at a small spatial scale. In the montane Zoigê peatland, the apparent fractionation between precipitation and δDalk is more positive than in the other six sites, which is possibly an effect of the higher conductivity of the water in this high elevation site (3500 m a.s.l.). At a larger spatial scale, the site-averaged CPI ratios and the δDalk values of n-C29 and n-C31 alkanes show significant correlation with the air temperature and precipitation. These results support the application of the CPI ratio and the δDalk ratios of n-C29 and n-C31 alkanes as sensitive paleohydrologic proxies on millennial and larger timescales.

Stream-temperature patterns of the Muddy Creek basin, Anne Arundel County, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pluhowski, E.J.

1981-01-01

Using a water-balance equation based on a 4.25-year gaging-station record on North Fork Muddy Creek, the following mean annual values were obtained for the Muddy Creek basin: precipitation, 49.0 inches; evapotranspiration, 28.0 inches; runoff, 18.5 inches; and underflow, 2.5 inches. Average freshwater outflow from the Muddy Creek basin to the Rhode River estuary was 12.2 cfs during the period October 1, 1971, to December 31, 1975. Harmonic equations were used to describe seasonal maximum and minimum stream-temperature patterns at 12 sites in the basin. These equations were fitted to continuous water-temperature data obtained periodically at each site between November 1970 and June 1978. The harmonic equations explain at least 78 percent of the variance in maximum stream temperatures and 81 percent of the variance in minimum temperatures. Standard errors of estimate averaged 2.3C (Celsius) for daily maximum water temperatures and 2.1C for daily minimum temperatures. Mean annual water temperatures developed for a 5.4-year base period ranged from 11.9C at Muddy Creek to 13.1C at Many Fork Branch. The largest variations in stream temperatures were detected at thermograph sites below ponded reaches and where forest coverage was sparse or missing. At most sites the largest variations in daily water temperatures were recorded in April whereas the smallest were in September and October. The low thermal inertia of streams in the Muddy Creek basin tends to amplify the impact of surface energy-exchange processes on short-period stream-temperature patterns. Thus, in response to meteorologic events, wide ranging stream-temperature perturbations of as much as 6C have been documented in the basin. (USGS)

Global Mean Temperature Timeseries Projections from GCMs: The Implications of Rebasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Global climate models are assessed by comparison with observations through several benchmarks. One highlighted by the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is their ability to reproduce "general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes over the historical period" [1,2] and to simulate "a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend" [3]. These aspects of annual mean global mean temperature (GMT) change are presented as one feature demonstrating the relevance of these models for climate projections. Here we consider a formal interpretation of "general features" and discuss the implications of this approach to model assessment and intercomparison, for the interpretation of GCM projections. Following the IPCC, we interpret a major element of "general features" as being the slow timescale response to external forcings. (Shorter timescale behaviour such as the response to volcanic eruptions are also elements of "general features" but are not considered here.) Also following the IPCC, we consider only GMT anomalies. The models have absolute temperatures which range over about 3K so this means their timeseries (and the observations) are rebased. We show that rebasing in combination with general agreement, implies a separation of scales which limits the degree to which sub-global behaviour can feedback on the global response. It also implies a degree of linearity in the GMT slow timescale response. For each individual model these implications only apply over the range of absolute temperatures simulated by the model in historic simulations. Taken together, however, they imply consequences over a wider range of GMTs. [1] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary: Stocker et al. 2013. [2] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 9 - "Evaluation of Climate Models": Flato et al. 2013. [3] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC, 2013.

Monitoring Impacts of Long-Term Drought on Surface Water Quantity and Quality in Middle Rio Grande Basin Reservoirs Using Multispectral Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mubako, S. T.; Hargrove, W. L.

2017-12-01

The Elephant Butte and Caballo dams form the largest surface water reservoirs in the Middle Rio Grande basin. The basin supports more than 2 million people, including the major urban centers of Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico, El Paso, Texas, and Las Cruces, New Mexico, plus more than 70,000 ha of land with water rights for irrigated agriculture. However, this region has experienced severe droughts and growing water demand over the past few decades. This study applied GIS and remote sensing techniques to (1) quantify the shrinking and expansion of the reservoirs for the 44-year period 1973-2017; (2) demonstrate the use of multispectral satellite imagery for qualitative assessment of reservoir water turbidity; and (3) investigate and compare annual and seasonal variability of reservoir temperature. Our preliminary results show apparent shrinkage and recovery cycles of both reservoirs, depending on annual inflow and diversion cycles. For example, the period 1981 to 1993 was unusually `wet' on average, in contrast to the period around September 2002 when the Elephant Butte reservoir shrinked to less than 11 percent of its capacity due to drought. Water in the reservoirs appears more turbid in the fall compared to the summer season, and satellite images showed distinctive zones of deep and shallow water, with evident sedimentation near the in-flow of each reservoir. Examination of image digital numbers revealed the following three distinct temperature zones: scrub environment around the reservoirs, very shallow water around reservoir edges, and deeper reservoir water. The zones were represented by a higher range of digital numbers in the summer in comparison to the fall season, indicating greater surface temperature variability in the summer season. The distinction between high summer temperatures and low fall temperatures was especially prominent along the shallow edges of each reservoir. The fluctuating thermal patterns can be explained by variations in depth, currents, and relationships to water input to the two reservoirs. The study contributes to a better understanding of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on reservoir surface area fluctuations, water quality and quantity impacts due to evaporation and consumptive use, and provides historical and baseline data for future water management decisions.

The relationship between sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration of phytoplanktons in the Black Sea using remote sensing techniques.

PubMed

Kavak, Mehmet Tahir; Karadogan, Sabri

2012-04-01

Present work investigated the relationship between Chlorophyll (Chl), of phytoplankton biomass, and sea surface temperature (SST) of the Black Sea, using Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite imagery. Satellite derived data could provide information on the amount of sea life present (Brown algae, called kelp, proliferate, supporting new species of sea life, including otters, fish, and various invertebrates) in a given area throughout the world. SST from AVHRR from 1993 to 2008 showed seasonal, annual and interannual variability of temperature, monthly variability Chl from SeaWiFS from 1997 to 2009 has also been investigated. Chl showed two high peaks for the year 1999 and 2008. The correlation between SST and Chl for the same time has been found to be 60%. Correlation was significant at p<0.05. The information could also be useful in connection with studies of global changes in temperature and what effect they could have on the total abundance of marine life.

Non-stationary Return Levels of CMIP5 Multi-model Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Cheng, L.; Phillips, T. J.; AghaKouchak, A.

2015-05-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are mostmore » subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.« less

How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyos, Isabel; Baquero-Bernal, Astrid; Hagemann, Stefan

2013-09-01

In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while precipitation is better represented by Delaware. Among the three datasets that permit an analysis of surface water and energy balances (REMO, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR), REMO best demonstrates the closure property of the surface water balance within the basin, while NCEP/NCAR does not demonstrate this property well. The three datasets represent the energy balance fairly well, although some inconsistencies were found in the individual balance components for NCEP/NCAR.

Quantifying the effect of seasonal and vertical habitat tracking on planktonic foraminifera proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonkers, Lukas; Kučera, Michal

2017-06-01

The composition of planktonic foraminiferal (PF) calcite is routinely used to reconstruct climate variability. However, PF ecology leaves a large imprint on the proxy signal: seasonal and vertical habitats of PF species vary spatially, causing variable offsets from annual mean surface conditions recorded by sedimentary assemblages. PF seasonality changes with temperature in a way that minimises the environmental change that individual species experience and it is not unlikely that changes in depth habitat also result from such habitat tracking. While this behaviour could lead to an underestimation of spatial or temporal trends as well as of variability in proxy records, most palaeoceanographic studies are (implicitly) based on the assumption of a constant habitat. Up to now, the effect of habitat tracking on foraminifera proxy records has not yet been formally quantified on a global scale. Here we attempt to characterise this effect on the amplitude of environmental change recorded in sedimentary PF using core top δ18O data from six species. We find that the offset from mean annual near-surface δ18O values varies with temperature, with PF δ18O indicating warmer than mean conditions in colder waters (on average by -0.1 ‰ (equivalent to 0.4 °C) per °C), thus providing a first-order quantification of the degree of underestimation due to habitat tracking. We use an empirical model to estimate the contribution of seasonality to the observed difference between PF and annual mean δ18O and use the residual Δδ18O to assess trends in calcification depth. Our analysis indicates that given an observation-based model parametrisation calcification depth increases with temperature in all species and sensitivity analysis suggests that a temperature-related seasonal habitat adjustment is essential to explain the observed isotope signal. Habitat tracking can thus lead to a significant reduction in the amplitude of recorded environmental change. However, we show that this behaviour is predictable. This allows accounting for habitat tracking, enabling more meaningful reconstructions and improved data-model comparison.

Arctic tree rings as recorders of variations in light availability

PubMed Central

Stine, A. R.; Huybers, P.

2014-01-01

Annual growth ring variations in Arctic trees are often used to reconstruct surface temperature. In general, however, the growth of Arctic vegetation is limited both by temperature and light availability, suggesting that variations in atmospheric transmissivity may also influence tree-ring characteristics. Here we show that Arctic tree-ring density is sensitive to changes in light availability across two distinct phenomena: explosive volcanic eruptions (P<0.01) and the recent epoch of global dimming (P<0.01). In each case, the greatest response is found in the most light-limited regions of the Arctic. Essentially no late 20th century decline in tree-ring density relative to temperature is seen in the least light-limited regions of the Arctic. Consistent results follow from analysis of tree-ring width and from individually analysing each of seven tree species. Light availability thus appears an important control, opening the possibility for using tree rings to reconstruct historical changes in surface light intensity. PMID:24805143

Climate warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2 - Simulations with a multilayer coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal energy balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Peng; Chou, Ming-Dah; Arking, Albert

1987-01-01

The transient response of the climate to increasing CO2 is studied using a modified version of the multilayer energy balance model of Peng et al. (1982). The main characteristics of the model are described. Latitudinal and seasonal distributions of planetary albedo, latitude-time distributions of zonal mean temperatures, and latitudinal distributions of evaporation, water vapor transport, and snow cover generated from the model and derived from actual observations are analyzed and compared. It is observed that in response to an atmospheric doubling of CO2, the model reaches within 1/e of the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature in 9-35 years for the probable range of vertical heat diffusivity in the ocean. For CO2 increases projected by the National Research Council (1983), the model's transient response in annually and globally averaged surface temperatures is 60-75 percent of the corresponding equilibrium response, and the disequilibrium increases with increasing heat diffusivity of the ocean.

TES mapping of Mars' north seasonal cap

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kieffer, H.H.; Titus, T.N.

2001-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor thermal emission spectrometer has made observations of Mars' north polar region for nearly a full martian year. Measurements of bolometric emission and reflectance, as well as brightness temperatures in specific bands synthesized from thermal radiance spectra, are used to track the behavior of surface and atmospheric temperatures, the distribution of condensed CO2 and H2O, and the occurrence of dust storms. CO2 grain size in the polar night is variable in space and time, and is influenced by atmospheric conditions. Some specific locations display concentration of H2O frost and indicate the presence of long-term water-ice near the surface. Annual budgets of solid CO2 range up to 1500 kg m-2; preliminary analysis suggests significant transport of energy into latitudes near 70?? N during the polar night. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science.

Soil Surface Organic Layers in Alaska's Arctic Foothills: Development, Distribution and Microclimatic Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baughman, C. A.; Mann, D. H.; Verbyla, D.; Valentine, D.; Kunz, M. L.; Heiser, P. A.

2013-12-01

Accumulated organic matter at the ground surface plays an important role in arctic ecosystems. These soil surface organic layers (SSOLs) influence temperature, moisture, and chemistry in the underlying mineral soil and, on a global basis, comprise enormous stores of labile carbon. Understanding the dynamics of SSOLs is prerequisite to modeling the responses of arctic ecosystem processes to climate changes. Here, we ask three questions regarding SSOLs in the Arctic Foothills in northern Alaska: 1) What environmental factors control their spatial distribution? 2) How long do they take to form? 3) What is the relationship between SSOL thickness and mineral soil temperature through the growing season? The best topographically-controlled predictors of SSOL thickness and spatial distribution are duration of sunlight during the growing-season, upslope drainage area, slope gradient, and elevation. SSOLs begin to form within several decades following disturbance but require 500-700 years to reach equilibrium states. Once formed, mature SSOLs lower peak growing-season temperature and mean annual temperature in the underlying mineral horizon by 8° and 3° C respectively, which reduces available growing degree days within the upper mineral soil by nearly 80%. How ongoing climate change in northern Alaska will affect the region's SSOLs is an open and potentially crucial question.

Global correlation between surface heat fluxes and insolation in the 11-year solar cycle: The latitudinal effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volobuev, D. M.; Makarenko, N. G.

2014-12-01

Because of the small amplitude of insolation variations (1365.2-1366.6 W m-2 or 0.1%) from the 11-year solar cycle minimum to the cycle maximum and the structural complexity of the climatic dynamics, it is difficult to directly observe a solar signal in the surface temperature. The main difficulty is reduced to two factors: (1) a delay in the temperature response to external action due to thermal inertia, and (2) powerful internal fluctuations of the climatic dynamics suppressing the solar-driven component. In this work we take into account the first factor, solving the inverse problem of thermal conductivity in order to calculate the vertical heat flux from the measured temperature near the Earth's surface. The main model parameter—apparent thermal inertia—is calculated from the local seasonal extremums of temperature and albedo. We level the second factor by averaging mean annual heat fluxes in a latitudinal belt. The obtained mean heat fluxes significantly correlate with a difference between the insolation and optical depth of volcanic aerosol in the atmosphere, converted into a hindered heat flux. The calculated correlation smoothly increases with increasing latitude to 0.4-0.6, and the revealed latitudinal dependence is explained by the known effect of polar amplification.

Interannual Variability in Global Soil Respiration on a 0.5 Degree Grid Cell Basis (1980-1994)

DOE Data Explorer

Raich, James W. [Iowa State University, Ames, IA (USA); Potter, Christopher S. [NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Moffett Field, Mountain View, CA (United States); Bhagawat, Dwipen [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Olson, L. M. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN

2003-08-01

The Principal Investigators used a climate-driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil-CO2 emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil-to-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The mean annual global soil-CO2 flux over this 15-y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3-81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil-CO2 emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil-CO2 emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests contributed more soil-derived CO2 to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type (~30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil-CO2 emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil-CO2 production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO2 concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands, and deserts), interannual variability in soil-CO2 emmissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil-CO2 fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 PgCY-1 per degree Celsius. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil-CO2 emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO2 emissions from soils.

Thermal Transmission through Existing Building Enclosures: Destructive Monitoring in Intermediate Layers versus Non-Destructive Monitoring with Sensors on Surfaces.

PubMed

Echarri, Víctor; Espinosa, Almudena; Rizo, Carlos

2017-12-08

Opaque enclosures of buildings play an essential role in the level of comfort experienced indoors and annual energy demand. The impact of solar radiation and thermal inertia of the materials that make up the multi-layer enclosures substantially modify thermal transmittance behaviour of the enclosures. This dynamic form of heat transfer, additionally affected by indoor HVAC systems, has a substantial effect on the parameters that define comfort. It also has an impact on energy demand within a daily cycle as well as throughout a one-year use cycle. This study describes the destructive monitoring of an existing block of flats located in Alicante. Once the enclosure was opened, sensors of temperature (PT100), air velocity, and relative humidity were located in the different layers of the enclosure, as well as in the interior and exterior surfaces. A pyranometer was also installed to measure solar radiation levels. A temperature data correction algorithm was drawn up to address irregularities produced in the enclosure. The algorithm was applied using a Raspberry Pi processor in the data collection system. The comparative results of temperature gradients versus non-destructive monitoring systems are presented, providing measures of the transmittance value, surface temperatures and indoor and outdoor air temperatures. This remote sensing system can be used in future studies to quantify and compare the energy savings of different enclosure construction solutions.

Thermal Transmission through Existing Building Enclosures: Destructive Monitoring in Intermediate Layers versus Non-Destructive Monitoring with Sensors on Surfaces

PubMed Central

Echarri, Víctor; Espinosa, Almudena; Rizo, Carlos

2017-01-01

Opaque enclosures of buildings play an essential role in the level of comfort experienced indoors and annual energy demand. The impact of solar radiation and thermal inertia of the materials that make up the multi-layer enclosures substantially modify thermal transmittance behaviour of the enclosures. This dynamic form of heat transfer, additionally affected by indoor HVAC systems, has a substantial effect on the parameters that define comfort. It also has an impact on energy demand within a daily cycle as well as throughout a one-year use cycle. This study describes the destructive monitoring of an existing block of flats located in Alicante. Once the enclosure was opened, sensors of temperature (PT100), air velocity, and relative humidity were located in the different layers of the enclosure, as well as in the interior and exterior surfaces. A pyranometer was also installed to measure solar radiation levels. A temperature data correction algorithm was drawn up to address irregularities produced in the enclosure. The algorithm was applied using a Raspberry Pi processor in the data collection system. The comparative results of temperature gradients versus non-destructive monitoring systems are presented, providing measures of the transmittance value, surface temperatures and indoor and outdoor air temperatures. This remote sensing system can be used in future studies to quantify and compare the energy savings of different enclosure construction solutions. PMID:29292781

Terrestrial cooling in Northern Europe during the Eocene–Oligocene transition

PubMed Central

Hren, Michael T.; Sheldon, Nathan D.; Grimes, Stephen T.; Collinson, Margaret E.; Hooker, Jerry J.; Bugler, Melanie; Lohmann, Kyger C.

2013-01-01

Geochemical and modeling studies suggest that the transition from the “greenhouse” state of the Late Eocene to the “icehouse” conditions of the Oligocene 34–33.5 Ma was triggered by a reduction of atmospheric pCO2 that enabled the rapid buildup of a permanent ice sheet on the Antarctic continent. Marine records show that the drop in pCO2 during this interval was accompanied by a significant decline in high-latitude sea surface and deep ocean temperature and enhanced seasonality in middle and high latitudes. However, terrestrial records of this climate transition show heterogeneous responses to changing pCO2 and ocean temperatures, with some records showing a significant time lag in the temperature response to declining pCO2. We measured the Δ47 of aragonite shells of the freshwater gastropod Viviparus lentus from the Solent Group, Hampshire Basin, United Kingdom, to reconstruct terrestrial temperature and hydrologic change in the North Atlantic region during the Eocene–Oligocene transition. Our data show a decrease in growing-season surface water temperatures (∼10 °C) during the Eocene–Oligocene transition, corresponding to an average decrease in mean annual air temperature of ∼4–6 °C from the Late Eocene to Early Oligocene. The magnitude of cooling is similar to observed decreases in North Atlantic sea surface temperature over this interval and occurs during major glacial expansion. This suggests a close linkage between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, Northern Hemisphere temperature, and expansion of the Antarctic ice sheets. PMID:23610424

A modern pollen-climate dataset from the Darjeeling area, eastern Himalaya: Assessing its potential for past climate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Ruby; Bruch, Angela A.; Portmann, Felix; Bera, Subir; Paruya, Dipak Kumar; Morthekai, P.; Ali, Sheikh Nawaz

2017-10-01

Relying on the ability of pollen assemblages to differentiate among elevationally stratified vegetation zones, we assess the potential of a modern pollen-climate dataset from the Darjeeling area, eastern Himalaya, in past climate reconstructions. The dataset includes 73 surface samples from 25 sites collected from a c. 130-3600 m a.s.l. elevation gradient along a horizontal distance of c. 150 km and 124 terrestrial pollen taxa, which are analysed with respect to various climatic and environmental variables such as mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean temperature of coldest quarter (MTCQ), mean temperature of warmest quarter (MTWQ), mean precipitation of driest quarter (MPDQ), mean precipitation of wettest quarter (MPWQ), AET (actual evapotranspiration) and MI (moisture index). To check the reliability of the modern pollen-climate relationships different ordination methods are employed and subsequently tested with Huisman-Olff-Fresco (HOF) models. A series of pollen-climate parameter transfer functions using weighted-averaging regression and calibration partial least squares (WA-PLS) models are developed to reconstruct past climate changes from modern pollen data, and have been cross-validated. Results indicate that three of the environmental variables i.e., MTCQ, MPDQ and MI have strong potential for past climate reconstruction based on the available surface pollen dataset. The potential of the present modern pollen-climate relationship for regional quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction is further tested on a Late Quaternary fossil pollen profile from the Darjeeling foothill region with previously reconstructed and quantified climate. The good agreement with existing data allows for new insights in the hydroclimatic conditions during the Last glacial maxima (LGM) with (winter) temperature being the dominant controlling factor for glacial changes during the LGM in the eastern Himalaya.

The role of minerals and mean annual temperature on soil carbon accumulation: A modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramoff, R. Z.; Georgiou, K.; Tang, J.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.

2016-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest actively cycling terrestrial C pool with mean residence times that can exceed 10,000 years. There is strong evidence suggesting that SOC dynamics depend on soil temperature and C inputs to soil through net primary production (NPP), but it is unclear what the relative importance of these factors is relative to SOC protection by minerals. Recent empirical studies have suggested that mineral protection explains more variation in SOC stock sizes and C respiration fluxes than does NPP or climate. Our previous modeling has demonstrated that representing the chemistry of mineral sorption in a microbially-explicit model affects the temperature sensitivity of SOC dynamics. We apply this modeling framework to interpret observations of SOC stocks, mineral surface availability, mean annual temperature (MAT), and NPP collected along a 4,000 km transect in South America. We use a Random Forest machine learning algorithm and regression to analyze our model output and the empirical data. This analysis shows that mineral surface availability is the dominant control over C respiration and SOC stock, and is substantially larger than the effects of belowground NPP. We further show that minerals interact with MAT to determine the observed range of SOC stocks along this transect in the present day, as well as projected SOC stocks under long-term warming. Our model-data comparison suggests that soil mineralogy and MAT will explain the majority of the spatial variation in SOC stock over decadal-to-millennial timescales. We extend the analysis of these interactions using the ACME Land Model (ALM) coupled with an explicit representation of microbes, minerals, and vertical transport of solutes and gases. The model results confirm the dominant effects of minerals on organic matter decomposition throughout the soil column.

Interfacing a one-dimensional lake model with a single-column atmospheric model: 2. Thermal response of the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland under a 2 × CO2 global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perroud, Marjorie; Goyette, StéPhane

2012-06-01

In the companion to the present paper, the one-dimensional k-ɛ lake model SIMSTRAT is coupled to a single-column atmospheric model, nicknamed FIZC, and an application of the coupled model to the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland, is described. In this paper, the response of Lake Geneva to global warming caused by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (i.e., 2 × CO2) is investigated. Coupling the models allowed for feedbacks between the lake surface and the atmosphere and produced changes in atmospheric moisture and cloud cover that further modified the downward radiation fluxes. The time evolution of atmospheric variables as well as those of the lake's thermal profile could be reproduced realistically by devising a set of adjustable parameters. In a "control" 1 × CO2 climate experiment, the coupled FIZC-SIMSTRAT model demonstrated genuine skills in reproducing epilimnetic and hypolimnetic temperatures, with annual mean errors and standard deviations of 0.25°C ± 0.25°C and 0.3°C ± 0.15°C, respectively. Doubling the CO2 concentration induced an atmospheric warming that impacted the lake's thermal structure, increasing the stability of the water column and extending the stratified period by 3 weeks. Epilimnetic temperatures were seen to increase by 2.6°C to 4.2°C, while hypolimnion temperatures increased by 2.2°C. Climate change modified components of the surface energy budget through changes mainly in air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover. During summer, reduced cloud cover resulted in an increase in the annual net solar radiation budget. A larger water vapor deficit at the air-water interface induced a cooling effect in the lake.

Evaluation of 20-min and Annual Radiation Budget Components and Cloudiness in a Mountainous Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, E.

2007-05-01

Logan, Utah (USA) is among cities located in the mountainous valley in the western portion of Rocky Mountains in North America. It is the county seat of Cache Valley, a metropolitan area with a population of about 100,000. The valley had the polluted air in the USA during January 2004. To evaluate the daily and annual radiation budget and cloudiness in this mountainous valley, we set up a radiation station in the middle of the valley to measure the 20- min radiation budget components namely: incoming (Rso) and outgoing (Rso) solar or shortwave radiation, using to CM21 Kipp and Zonen (one inverted) and incoming (Rli) (or atmospheric) and outgoing (Rlo) or terrestrial) longwave radiation using two CG1 Kipp and Zonen Pyrgeometers (one inverted) during the year of 2003. All pyranometers and Pyrgeometers were ventilated with four CV2 Kipp and Zonen ventilation systems throughout the year to prevent deposition of dew, frost and snow, which otherwise would disturb the measurements. We also measured the 2-m air temperature and relative humidity along with surface temperature. All measurements were taken every 2 s, averaged to 20 min, continuously throughout the year 2000. A Met One heated rain gauge measured precipitation. Comparison of the annual radiation budget components indicates that about 25% of the annual Rsi (5848.6 MJ/ (squared m-y)) was reflected back to sky as Rso. Rli and Rlo amounted to 9968.7 and 13303.5 MJ/ (squared m-y)), respectively. This yielded about 1364.9 MJ/ (squared m- y)) available energy (Rn). Having the 2-m air temperature and moisture data and comparison between the theoretical and the measured longwave radiation, we evaluated the 20-m cloudy conditions throughout the year of 2003. The average cloud base height was 587 m (ranged from zero for foggy conditions to about 3000 m). Annual cloudiness contributed about 139.1 MJ/ (squared m-y)) more energy in this valley.

Evaluation of geophysical parameters measured by the Nimbus-7 microwave radiometer for the TOGA Heat Exchange Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy; Mock, Donald R.

1986-01-01

The data distributed by the National Space Science Data Center on the Geophysical parameters of precipitable water, sea surface temperature, and surface-level wind speed, measured by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on Nimbus-7, are evaluated with in situ measurements between Jan. 1980 and Oct. 1983 over the tropical oceans. In tracking annual cycles and the 1982-83 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation episode, the radiometer measurements are coherent with sea surface temperatures and surface-level wind speeds measured at equatorial buoys and with precipitable water derived from radiosonde soundings at tropical island stations. However, there are differences between SMMR and in situ measurements. Corrections based on radiosonde and ship data were derived supplementing correction formulae suggested in the databook. This study is the initial evaluation of the data for quantitative description of the 1982-83 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation episode. It paves the way for determination of the ocean-atmosphere moisture and latent heat exchanges, a priority of the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Heat Exchange Program.

Reconstructing spatial-temporal continuous MODIS land surface temperature using the DINEOF method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wang; Peng, Bin; Shi, Jiancheng

2017-10-01

Land surface temperature (LST) is one of the key states of the Earth surface system. Remote sensing has the capability to obtain high-frequency LST observations with global coverage. However, mainly due to cloud cover, there are always gaps in the remotely sensed LST product, which hampers the application of satellite-based LST in data-driven modeling of surface energy and water exchange processes. We explored the suitability of the data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions (DINEOF) method in moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer LST reconstruction around Ali on the Tibetan Plateau. To validate the reconstruction accuracy, synthetic clouds during both daytime and nighttime are created. With DINEOF reconstruction, the root mean square error and bias under synthetic clouds in daytime are 4.57 and -0.0472 K, respectively, and during the nighttime are 2.30 and 0.0045 K, respectively. The DINEOF method can well recover the spatial pattern of LST. Time-series analysis of LST before and after DINEOF reconstruction from 2002 to 2016 shows that the annual and interannual variabilities of LST can be well reconstructed by the DINEOF method.

Recovery of temperature records from slow-growing corals by fine scale sampling of skeletons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Anne L.; Thorrold, Simon R.

2007-09-01

We used laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA ICP-MS) to analyze Sr/Ca ratios in 5 colonies of the Atlantic corals, Diploria labyrinthiformis and Montastrea franski, each growing less than 5 mm yr-1. By targeting the centers of septa we avoided thickening deposits to achieve an analytical sampling resolution of 5-10 days. The sensitivity of Sr/Ca to temperature (-0.096 mmol/mol/°C) is ˜3 times higher than previously reported for these species and equivalent to that exhibited by fast-growing Porites corals from the Indo-Pacific. The Sr/Ca-sea surface temperature (SST) calibrations derived from these corals were not statistically different and were independent of colony growth rate over the period studied. Data from 4 D. labyrinthiformis colonies were pooled to produce a single Sr/Ca-SST calibration with a calculated standard error on the predicted ocean temperature of ±0.51°C. Applying our calibration to Sr/Ca analyses of D. labyrinthiformis skeleton deposited in the late 18th century indicated that average annual sea surface temperatures around Bermuda were ˜1°C cooler than today.

A 60-year reconstructed high-resolution local meteorological data set in Central Sahel (1950-2009): evaluation, analysis and application to land surface modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leauthaud, Crystele; Cappelaere, Bernard; Demarty, Jérôme; Guichard, Françoise; Velluet, Cécile; Kergoat, Laurent; Vischel, Théo; Grippa, Manuela; Mouhaimouni, Mohammed; Bouzou Moussa, Ibrahim; Mainassara, Ibrahim; Sultan, Benjamin

2017-04-01

The Sahel has experienced strong climate variability in the past decades. Understanding its implications for natural and cultivated ecosystems is pivotal in a context of high population growth and mainly agriculture-based livelihoods. However, efforts to model processes at the land-atmosphere interface are hindered, particularly when the multi-decadal timescale is targeted, as climatic data are scarce, largely incomplete and often unreliable. This study presents the generation of a long-term, high-temporal resolution, multivariate local climatic data set for Niamey, Central Sahel. The continuous series spans the period 1950-2009 at a 30-min timescale and includes ground station-based meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature, relative and specific humidity, air pressure, wind speed, downwelling long- and short-wave radiation) as well as process-modelled surface fluxes (upwelling long- and short-wave radiation,latent, sensible and soil heat fluxes and surface temperature). A combination of complementary techniques (linear/spline regressions, a multivariate analogue method, artificial neural networks and recursive gap filling) was used to reconstruct missing meteorological data. The complete surface energy budget was then obtained for two dominant land cover types, fallow bush and millet, by applying the meteorological forcing data set to a finely field-calibrated land surface model. Uncertainty in reconstructed data was expressed by means of a stochastic ensemble of plausible historical time series. Climatological statistics were computed at sub-daily to decadal timescales and compared with local, regional and global data sets such as CRU and ERA-Interim. The reconstructed precipitation statistics, ˜1°C increase in mean annual temperature from 1950 to 2009, and mean diurnal and annual cycles for all variables were in good agreement with previous studies. The new data set, denoted NAD (Niamey Airport-derived set) and publicly available, can be used to investigate the water and energy cycles in Central Sahel, while the methodology can be applied to reconstruct series at other stations. The study has been published in Int. J. Climatol. (2016), DOI: 10.1002/joc.4874

On the Stability of Liquid Water on Present Day Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, Robert M.; DeVincenzi, Donald L. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The mean annual surface pressure and temperature on present day Mars do not allow for the long term stability of liquid water on the surface. However, theoretical arguments have been advanced that suggest liquid water could form in transient events even though it would not be in equilibrium with the environment. Using a Mars General Circulation Model, we calculate where and for how long the surface pressure and surface temperature meet the minimum requirements for this metastability of liquid water. These requirements are that the pressure and temperature must be above the triple point of water, but below its boiling point. We find that there are five regions on Mars where these requirements are periodically satisfied: in the near equatorial regions of Amazonis, Arabia, and Elysium, and in the Hellas and Argyre impact basins. Whether liquid water ever forms in these regions depends on the availability of ice and heat, and on the evaporation rate. The latter is poorly understood for low pressure CO2 environments, but is likely to be so high that melting occurs rarely, if at all. However, in the relatively recent past, surface pressures may have been higher than they are today perhaps by as much as a factor of 2 or 3. Under these circumstances melting would have been easier to achieve. We plan to undertake laboratory experiments to better understand the potential for melting in low pressure environments.

Interannual variability of rock glacier surface velocities and its relationship to climatic conditions on a decadal scale: Some insights from the European Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas; Bodin, Xavier; Delaloye, Reynald; Fischer, Andrea; Gärtner-Roer, Isabelle; Hartl, Lea; Kaufmann, Viktor; Krainer, Karl; Lambiel, Christophe; Mair, Volkmar; Marcer, Marco; Morra di Cella, Umberto; Scapozza, Cristian; Schoeneich, Philippe; Staub, Benno

2017-04-01

Active, inactive and relict rock glaciers are widespread periglacial landforms in the European Alps as revealed by several inventories elaborated for Slovenia, Austria, Switzerland, Italy, and France. Rock glaciers indicate present or past permafrost conditions in mountain environments and hence have a high climatic or paleoclimatic relevance. The monitoring of surface velocities at active rock glaciers has a long tradition in the European Alps with first terrestrial photogrammetric surveys in the Swiss and Austrian Alps already in the 1920s. Since the 1990s velocity monitoring activities have been substantially expanded but also institutionalized. Today, several research groups carry out annual or even continuous monitoring of rock glacier creep at more than 30 rock glaciers in Austria, France, Italy, and Switzerland. In many cases such a kinematic monitoring is jointly accomplished with meteorological and ground temperature monitoring in order to better understand the rock glacier-climate relationships and the reaction of rock glacier behavior to climatic changes. In this contribution we present a synthesis of the main results from long-term monitoring of several rock glaciers in the European Alps with at least annually-repeated data. Similarities but also differences of the movement patterns at the different sites are discussed, while the spatio-temporal pattern of the surface displacement is looked at against the climate context. In general, rock glacier surface velocities in the European Alps have been rather low during the 1980s and 1990s and reached a first peak in 2003/04 followed by a drastic drop until c.2007/08. Since then rock glacier surface velocities increased again with new velocity records in 2015/16 superior to the first peak around 2003/04. These creep rate maxima coincide with the warmest permafrost temperatures ever measured in boreholes and are likely a result of the continuously warm conditions at the ground surface over the past seven years.

Thermal inertia and surface heterogeneity on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putzig, Nathaniel E.

Thermal inertia derived from temperature observations is critical for understanding surface geology and assessing potential landing sites on Mars. Derivation methods generally assume uniform surface properties for any given observation. Consequently, horizontal heterogeneity and near-surface layering may yield apparent thermal inertia that varies with time of day and season. To evaluate the effects of horizontal heterogeneity, I modeled the thermal behavior of surfaces containing idealized material mixtures (dust, sand, duricrust, and rocks) and differing slope facets. These surfaces exhibit diurnal and seasonal variability in apparent thermal inertia of several 100 tiu, 1 even for components with moderately contrasting thermal properties. To isolate surface effects on the derived thermal inertia of Mars, I mapped inter- annual and seasonal changes in albedo and atmospheric dust opacity, accounting for their effects in a modified derivation algorithm. Global analysis of three Mars years of MGS-TES 2 data reveals diurnal and seasonal variations of ~200 tiu in the mid-latitudes and 600 tiu or greater in the polar regions. Correlation of TES results and modeled apparent thermal inertia of heterogeneous surfaces indicates pervasive surface heterogeneity on Mars. At TES resolution, the near-surface thermal response is broadly dominated by layering and is consistent with the presence of duricrusts over fines in the mid-latitudes and dry soils over ground ice in the polar regions. Horizontal surface mixtures also play a role and may dominate at higher resolution. In general, thermal inertia obtained from single observations or annually averaged maps may misrepresent surface properties. In lieu of a robust heterogeneous- surface derivation technique, repeat coverage can be used together with forward-modeling results to constrain the near-surface heterogeneity of Mars. 1 tiu == J m -2 K -1 s - 2 Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer

Spatio-temporal variability of lake CH4 fluxes and its influence on annual estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natchimuthu, S.; Sundgren, I.; Gålfalk, M.; Klemedtsson, L.; Crill, P. M.; Danielsson, Å.; Bastviken, D.

2014-12-01

Lakes are major sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere and it has been shown that lakes contribute significantly to the global CH4 budget. However, the data behind these global estimates are snapshots in time and space only and they typically lack information on spatial and temporal variability of fluxes which can potentially lead to biased estimates. Recent studies have shown that diffusive flux, gas exchange velocity (k), ebullition and concentration of CH4 in the surface water can vary significantly in space within lakes. CH4 fluxes can also change at a broad range of temporal scales in response to seasons, temperature, lake mixing events, short term weather events like pressure variations, shifting winds and diel cycles. We sampled CH4 fluxes and surface water concentrations from three lakes of differing characteristics in southwest Sweden over two annual cycles, approximately every 14 days from April to October 2012 and from April to November 2013. CH4 fluxes were measured using floating chambers distributed in the lakes based on depth categories and dissolved CH4 concentrations were determined by a headspace equilibration method. We observed significant differences in CH4 concentration, diffusion, ebullition and total fluxes between and within the lakes. The fluxes increased exponentially with temperature in all three lakes and water temperature, for example, explained 53-78% of variations in total fluxes in the lakes. Based on our data which relied on improved spatial and temporal information, we demonstrate that measurements which do not take into account of the spatial variability in the lakes could substantially bias the whole lake estimates. For instance, in one of the lakes, measurements from the central parts of the lake represented only 58% of our estimates from all chambers on an average. In addition, we consider how intensive sampling in one season of the year may affect the annual estimates due to the complex interaction of temperature, air pressure and lake mixing events on CH4 fluxes. For example, samples collected when the average air temperatures during chamber deployments were above 15 °C overestimated the total fluxes by 17-157% in all lakes when compared to averages from all measurement times.

Inter-annual Tropospheric Aerosol Variability in Late Twentieth Century and its Impact on Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate by Direct and Semi-direct Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, Katherine J; Hack, James J; Truesdale, John

A new high-resolution (0.9more » $$^{\\circ}$$x1.25$$^{\\circ}$$ in the horizontal) global tropospheric aerosol dataset with monthly resolution is generated using the finite-volume configuration of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a bulk aerosol model and forced with recent estimates of surface emissions for the latter part of twentieth century. The surface emissions dataset is constructed from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) decadal-resolution surface emissions dataset to include REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) wildfire monthly emissions dataset. Experiments forced with the new tropospheric aerosol dataset and conducted using the spectral configuration of CAM4 with a T85 truncation (1.4$$^{\\circ}$$x1.4$$^{\\circ}$$) with prescribed twentieth century observed sea surface temperature, sea-ice and greenhouse gases reveal that variations in tropospheric aerosol levels can induce significant regional climate variability on the inter-annual timescales. Regression analyses over tropical Atlantic and Africa reveal that increasing dust aerosols can cool the North African landmass and shift convection southwards from West Africa into the Gulf of Guinea in the spring season in the simulations. Further, we find that increasing carbonaceous aerosols emanating from the southwestern African savannas can cool the region significantly and increase the marine stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeast tropical Atlantic ocean by aerosol-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere above the low clouds. Experiments conducted with CAM4 coupled to a slab ocean model suggest that present day aerosols can shift the ITCZ southwards over the tropical Atlantic and can reduce the ocean mixed layer temperature beneath the increased marine stratocumulus clouds in the southeastern tropical Atlantic.« less

Comparison of mean climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere-ocean model forced runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Russell, Gary L.

2002-08-01

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmosphere-ocean model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure; surface temperature; 850, 500, and 200 mbar geopotential heights; and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared with those obtained from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. A spatial correlation analysis and a mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement in terms of statistical significance for most of the variables considered in the winter and annual means. However, the 850 mbar temperature trends do not show significant positive correlation, and the surface pressure and 850 mbar geopotential height mean trends confidence intervals do not overlap. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the regional and NH mean climate trends inferred from NCEP through the atmosphere suggests that it may be reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

Decadal Trends and Common Dynamics of the Bio-Optical and Thermal Characteristics of the African Great Lakes

PubMed Central

Loiselle, Steven; Cózar, Andrés; Adgo, Enyew; Ballatore, Thomas; Chavula, Geoffrey; Descy, Jean Pierre; Harper, David M.; Kansiime, Frank; Kimirei, Ismael; Langenberg, Victor; Ma, Ronghua; Sarmento, Hugo; Odada, Eric

2014-01-01

The Great Lakes of East Africa are among the world’s most important freshwater ecosystems. Despite their importance in providing vital resources and ecosystem services, the impact of regional and global environmental drivers on this lacustrine system remains only partially understood. We make a systematic comparison of the dynamics of the bio-optical and thermal properties of thirteen of the largest African lakes between 2002 and 2011. Lake surface temperatures had a positive trend in all Great Lakes outside the latitude of 0° to 8° south, while the dynamics of those lakes within this latitude range were highly sensitive to global inter-annual climate drivers (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation). Lake surface temperature dynamics in nearly all lakes were found to be sensitive to the latitudinal position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Phytoplankton dynamics varied considerably between lakes, with increasing and decreasing trends. Intra-lake differences in both surface temperature and phytoplankton dynamics occurred for many of the larger lakes. This inter-comparison of bio-optical and thermal dynamics provides new insights into the response of these ecosystems to global and regional drivers. PMID:24699528

Observations of a stratospheric depletion and annual mean interhemispheric gradient in the atmospheric Ar/N2 ratio from the HIPPO Global campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bent, J. D.; Keeling, R. F.; Stephens, B. B.; Wofsy, S. C.; Daube, B. C.; Kort, E. A.; Pittman, J. V.; Jimenez-Pizarro, R.; Santoni, G.

2014-12-01

The atmospheric Ar/N2 ratio varies on a seasonal basis due to temperature-dependent solubility changes in the surface ocean. Low signal:noise ratios, limited vertical coverage, and sampler-sampler offsets have historically hampered characterization of vertical and inter-hemispheric gradients. We present data from the HIPPO Global campaign (2009-11) showing that Ar/N2 and interannually-detrended N2O correlate well in the lower stratosphere, suggesting that, as stratospheric air ages and loses N2O to photolysis and photo-oxidation, it also gradually loses argon to gravity as the heavier atom preferentially "rains out" of the air parcel. The HIPPO Ar/N2 data from the lower troposphere also resolve seasonal cycles in each hemisphere, as well as a gradient in the annual mean between hemispheres, with higher values in the southern hemisphere. The HIPPO cycles and inter-hemispheric gradient are in good agreement with data from surface stations.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions

DOE PAGES

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

2017-06-28

Cumulative CO 2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO 2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models frommore » the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Here, our results suggest that cumulative CO 2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

Cumulative CO 2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO 2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models frommore » the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Here, our results suggest that cumulative CO 2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

Increased Frequency of Large Blowdown Formation in Years With Hotter Dry Seasons in the Northwestern Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rifai, S. W.; Anderson, L. O.; Bohlman, S.

2015-12-01

Blowdowns, which are large tree mortality events caused by downbursts, create large pulses of carbon emissions in the short term and alter successional dynamics and species composition of forests, thus affecting long term biogeochemical cycling of tropical forests. Changing climate, especially increasing temperatures and frequency of extreme climate events, may cause changes in the frequency of blowdowns, but there has been little spatiotemporal analysis to associate the interannual variation in the frequency of blowdowns with annual climate parameters. We mapped blowdowns greater than 25 ha using a time series of Landsat images from 1984-2012 in the northwestern Amazon to estimate the annual size distribution of these blowdowns. The difference in forest area affected by blowdowns between the years with the highest and lowest blowdown activity were on the order of 10 - 30 times greater depending on location. Spatially, we found the probability of large blowdowns to be higher in regions with higher annual rainfall. Temporally, we found a positive correlation between the probability of large blowdown events and maximum dry season air temperature (R2 = 0.1-0.46). Mean and maximum blowdown size also increased with maximum dry season air temperature. The strength of these relationships varied between scene locations which may be related to cloud cover obscuring the land surface in the satellite images, or biophysical characteristics of the sites. Potentially, elevated dry season temperatures during the transition from the dry season to the wet season (October - December) may exacerbate atmospheric instabilities, which promote downburst occurrences. Most global circulation models predict dry season air temperatures to increase 2-5 ℃ in the northwestern Amazon by 2050. Should the blowdown disturbance regime continue increasing with elevated dry season temperatures, the northwestern Amazon is likely to experience more catastrophic tree mortality events which has direct consequences for both the carbon emissions and carbon storage capacity of the northwestern Amazon.

A climatology of the California Current System from a network of underwater gliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudnick, Daniel L.; Zaba, Katherine D.; Todd, Robert E.; Davis, Russ E.

2017-05-01

Autonomous underwater gliders offer the possibility of sustained observation of the coastal ocean. Since 2006 Spray underwater gliders in the California Underwater Glider Network (CUGN) have surveyed along California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) lines 66.7, 80.0, and 90.0, constituting the world's longest sustained glider network, to our knowledge. In this network, gliders dive between the surface and 500 m, completing a cycle in 3 h and covering 3 km in that time. Sections extend 350-500 km offshore and take 2-3 weeks to occupy. Measured variables include pressure, temperature, salinity, and depth-average velocity. The CUGN has amassed over 10,000 glider-days, covering over 210,000 km with over 95,000 dives. These data are used to produce a climatology whose products are for each variable a mean field, an annual cycle, and the anomaly from the annual cycle. The analysis includes a weighted least-squares fit to derive the mean and annual cycle, and an objective map to produce the anomaly. The final results are variables on rectangular grids in depth, distance offshore, and time. The mean fields are finely resolved sections across the main flows in the California Current System, including the poleward California Undercurrent and the equatorward California Current. The annual cycle shows a phase change from the surface to the thermocline, reflecting the effects of air/sea fluxes at the surface and upwelling in the thermocline. The interannual anomalies are examined with an emphasis on climate events of the last ten years including the 2009-2010 El Niño, the 2010-2011 La Niña, the warm anomaly of 2014-2015, and the 2015-2016 El Niño.

Confronting the surface temperature cold bias in AGCMs over the Tibetan Plateau and improving climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, G. X.; Liu, Y.; Bao, Q.; Chen, X.; Li, J.

2017-12-01

One of the mid-term progresses of the NSFC- Key Research Program "Land-air Coupling over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Climate Impact " is presented. The elevated heating in summer and cooling in winter of the Tibetan Plateau significantly regulate the seasonal change of the atmospheric circulation and exert remarkable impacts on world climate. Recent studies have demonstrated that the majority of the Phase-5 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models underestimate annual and seasonal mean surface air temperatures (Ta) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In addition, more than half of the models underestimate annual and seasonal mean surface temperatures (Ts) over the TP. These cold biases are larger over the western TP. By decomposing the Ts bias using the surface energy budget equation, it was demonstrated that this TP's cold bias can be attributed to various factors, in which the stronger bias in surface albedo (a-) and the weaker bias in clear-sky downward Longwave radiation (DLR) play the most significant roles. Since a- and DLR are respectively affected by snow coverage fraction at the ground surface and water vapor content in the atmosphere, these results then imply that the cold bias over the TP is caused by too large snow coverage fraction and too less water vapor content over the TP in the models. The FAMIL AGCM model developed at LASG also suffers from the similar cold bias over the TP. By introducing the 3D- Radiative Transfer Parameterization Over Mountains/Snow (Liou, 2013) into the model, the total solar radiation reaching the ground surface is increased during the daytime, resulting in more snowmelt and less snow coverage. Accordingly, surface albedo is decreased on the sunny side of the mountains, and the surface cold bias over mountain areas is decreased. It is shown that the improvement is sensitive to the model resolution: increased the horizontal resolution of Community Land Model version 4.0 (CLM 4.0) from nearly 200km (1.9o×2.5o) to about 25km (0.23o×0.31o) can significantly improve the parameterization effect and accuracy, with more notably improvement appearing in Spring. It is demonstrated that, by stimulating a Rossby wave and strengthen the precipitation in subtropical frontal zone of East Asia, the decrement of clod bias over the TP can greatly improve the climate simulations of the model.

Seasonal dynamics of methane emissions from a subarctic fen in the Hudson Bay Lowlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanis, K. L.; Tenuta, M.; Amiro, B. D.; Papakyriakou, T. N.

2013-07-01

Ecosystem-scale methane (CH4) flux (FCH4) over a subarctic fen at Churchill, Manitoba, Canada was measured to understand the magnitude of emissions during spring and fall shoulder seasons, and the growing season in relation to physical and biological conditions. FCH4 was measured using eddy covariance with a closed-path analyser in four years (2008-2011). Cumulative measured annual FCH4 (shoulder plus growing seasons) ranged from 3.0 to 9.6 g CH4 m-2 yr-1 among the four study years, with a mean of 6.5 to 7.1 g CH4 m-2 yr-1 depending upon gap-filling method. Soil temperatures to depths of 50 cm and air temperature were highly correlated with FCH4, with near-surface soil temperature at 5 cm most correlated across spring, fall, and the shoulder and growing seasons. The response of FCH4 to soil temperature at the 5 cm depth and air temperature was more than double in spring to that of fall. Emission episodes were generally not observed during spring thaw. Growing season emissions also depended upon soil and air temperatures but the water table also exerted influence, with FCH4 highest when water was 2-13 cm below and lowest when it was at or above the mean peat surface.

Seasonal dynamics of methane emissions from a subarctic fen in the Hudson Bay Lowlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanis, K. L.; Tenuta, M.; Amiro, B. D.; Papakyriakou, T. N.

2013-03-01

Ecosystem-scale methane (CH4) flux (FCH4) over a subarctic fen at Churchill, Manitoba, Canada was measured to understand the magnitude of emissions during spring and fall shoulder seasons, and the growing season in relation to physical and biological conditions. FCH4 was measured using eddy covariance with a closed-path analyzer in four years (2008-2011). Cumulative measured annual FCH4 (shoulder plus growing seasons) ranged from 3.0 to 9.6 g CH4 m-2 yr-1 among the four study years, with a mean of 6.5 to 7.1 g CH4 m-2 yr-1 depending upon gap-filling method. Soil temperatures to depths of 50 cm and air temperature were highly correlated with FCH4, with near surface soil temperature at 5 cm most correlated across spring, fall, and the whole season. The response of FCH4 to soil temperature at the 5 cm depth and air temperature was more than double in spring to that of fall. Emission episodes were generally not observed during spring thaw. Growing season emissions also depended upon soil and air temperatures but water table also exerted influence with FCH4 highest when water was 2-13 cm below and least when it was at or above the mean peat surface.

The surface climatology of the Ross Ice Shelf Antarctica

PubMed Central

Lazzara, Matthew A.; Keller, Linda M.; Cassano, John J.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The University of Wisconsin‐Madison Antarctic Automatic Weather Station (AWS) project has been making meteorological surface observations on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) for approximately 30 years. This network offers the most continuous set of routine measurements of surface meteorological variables in this region. The Ross Island area is excluded from this study. The surface climate of the RIS is described using the AWS measurements. Temperature, pressure, and wind data are analysed on daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time periods for 13 AWS across the RIS. The AWS are separated into three representative regions – central, coastal, and the area along the Transantarctic Mountains – in order to describe specific characteristics of sections of the RIS. The climatology describes general characteristics of the region and significant changes over time. The central AWS experiences the coldest mean temperature, and the lowest resultant wind speed. These AWSs also experience the coldest potential temperatures with a minimum of 209.3 K at Gill AWS. The AWS along the Transantarctic Mountains experiences the warmest mean temperature, the highest mean sea‐level pressure, and the highest mean resultant wind speed. Finally, the coastal AWS experiences the lowest mean pressure. Climate indices (MEI, SAM, and SAO) are compared to temperature and pressure data of four of the AWS with the longest observation periods, and significant correlation is found for most AWS in sea‐level pressure and temperature. This climatology study highlights characteristics that influence the climate of the RIS, and the challenges of maintaining a long‐term Antarctic AWS network. Results from this effort are essential for the broader Antarctic meteorology community for future research. PMID:28008213

Response of seasonal soil freeze depth to climate change across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Tingjun; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.; Wang, Kang; Cao, Bin; Zhong, Xinyue; Su, Hang; Mu, Cuicui

2017-05-01

The response of seasonal soil freeze depth to climate change has repercussions for the surface energy and water balance, ecosystems, the carbon cycle, and soil nutrient exchange. Despite its importance, the response of soil freeze depth to climate change is largely unknown. This study employs the Stefan solution and observations from 845 meteorological stations to investigate the response of variations in soil freeze depth to climate change across China. Observations include daily air temperatures, daily soil temperatures at various depths, mean monthly gridded air temperatures, and the normalized difference vegetation index. Results show that soil freeze depth decreased significantly at a rate of -0.18 ± 0.03 cm yr-1, resulting in a net decrease of 8.05 ± 1.5 cm over 1967-2012 across China. On the regional scale, soil freeze depth decreases varied between 0.0 and 0.4 cm yr-1 in most parts of China during 1950-2009. By investigating potential climatic and environmental driving factors of soil freeze depth variability, we find that mean annual air temperature and ground surface temperature, air thawing index, ground surface thawing index, and vegetation growth are all negatively associated with soil freeze depth. Changes in snow depth are not correlated with soil freeze depth. Air and ground surface freezing indices are positively correlated with soil freeze depth. Comparing these potential driving factors of soil freeze depth, we find that freezing index and vegetation growth are more strongly correlated with soil freeze depth, while snow depth is not significant. We conclude that air temperature increases are responsible for the decrease in seasonal freeze depth. These results are important for understanding the soil freeze-thaw dynamics and the impacts of soil freeze depth on ecosystem and hydrological process.

Elephant overflows: Multi-annual variability in Weddell Sea Deep Water driven by surface forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meijers, Andrew; Meredith, Michael; Abrahamsen, Povl; Naviera-Garabato, Alberto; Ángel Morales Maqueda, Miguel; Polzin, Kurt

2015-04-01

The volume of the deepest and densest water mass in Drake Passage, Lower Weddell Sea Deep Water (LWSDW), is shown to have been decreasing over the last 20 years of observations, with an associated reduction in density driven by freshening. Superimposed on this long term trend is a multi-annual oscillation with a period of 3-5 years. This variability only appears in Drake Passage; observations in the east of the Scotia Sea show a similar long term trend, but with no apparent multi-annual variability. Clues as to the source of this variability may be found on the continental slope at approximately 1000 m immediately north of Elephant Island on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here there is an intermittent westward flowing cold/fresh slope current whose volume and properties are strongly correlated with the LWSDW multi-annual variability, although leading the LWSDW by around one year. As the slope current and LWSDW are separated from each other both geographically and in water mass characteristics, their co-variability implies that they are responding to a common forcing, while the lag between deep LWSDW and shallow slope current provides information on the timescale of this response. A newly available high resolution temperature and salinity multi-year time series from the Elephant Island slope at 1000 m is compared with reanalysis and model derived surface fluxes, sea ice extent and wind stress. We find that there are strong positive relationships between the surface wind stress and heat flux over the shelf at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and the properties of the slope current at 1000 m on seasonal to annual timescales. We use tracer release experiments in the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) model to investigate the lag between the slope current and LWSDW timeseries and hypothesise that the observed multi-annual variability in both water masses is driven by surface forcing over the shelf and the overflow of modified water from the slope in the north-west Weddell Sea. The lag observed between the two time series is due to the difference in water mass paths to the observation points in Drake Passage. We discuss the role of atmospheric modes of variability such as ENSO and SAM, as well as climate trends, on this relationship and their potential impact on future LWSDW export.

Hindcasting 2000 years of Pacific sea and land surface temperature changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedel, M. J.

2010-12-01

Studies of climate variability often rely on surface temperature change anomalies. Here regional Pacific sea and land surface temperature data were extended from a century to millennial scale using a type of unsupervised artificial neural network. In this approach, the imputation of annual climate fields was done based on the nonlinear and self-organized relations among modern (1897-2003) sea and land temperature and paleo-proxy (0-2000) land-based Palmer Drought Severity Index data vectors. Stochastic crossvalidation (using median values from 30 Monte Carlo trials) of the model revealed that predictions of temperature change over the regions of 00N30N, 30N60N, 60N-90N, and 60S-60N latitude were globally unbiased and highly correlated (Spearman Rho > 0.94) with the modern observations. The prediction uncertainty was characterized as nonlinear with minor (<5%) local bias attributed to unaccounted for measurement uncertainty. Quantile modeling of the reconstructed temperature change data revealed interruptions in the long-term climate record by short-term changes that coincided with the so-called Medieval Warm Period (~900 to ~1250) and Little Ice Age (~1400 to ~1850). These interruptions were present at all latitudes but the structure shifted toward lower magnitudes as the region moved toward the equator. In all cases, the maximum temperature change was slightly greater than during the Medieval Warm Period. These findings demonstrated that the El Niño Southern Oscillation operated over a continuum of temporal and spatial scales. These findings have broad economic, political, and social implications with respect to developing water resource policies.

Merging tree ring chronologies and climate system model simulated temperature by optimal interpolation algorithm in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Nie, Suping; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu; Tian, Qinhua

2015-04-01

A new dataset of annual mean surface temperature has been constructed over North America in recent 500 years by performing optimal interpolation (OI) algorithm. Totally, 149 series totally were screened out including 69 tree ring width (MXD) and 80 tree ring width (TRW) chronologies are screened from International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). The simulated annual mean surface temperature derives from the past1000 experiment results of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Different from existing research that applying data assimilation approach to (General Circulation Models) GCMs simulation, the errors of both the climate model simulation and tree ring reconstruction were considered, with a view to combining the two parts in an optimal way. Variance matching (VM) was employed to calibrate tree ring chronologies on CRUTEM4v, and corresponding errors were estimated through leave-one-out process. Background error covariance matrix was estimated from samples of simulation results in a running 30-year window in a statistical way. Actually, the background error covariance matrix was calculated locally within the scanning range (2000km in this research). Thus, the merging process continued with a time-varying local gain matrix. The merging method (MM) was tested by two kinds of experiments, and the results indicated standard deviation of errors can be reduced by about 0.3 degree centigrade lower than tree ring reconstructions and 0.5 degree centigrade lower than model simulation. During the recent Obvious decadal variability can be identified in MM results including the evident cooling (0.10 degree per decade) in 1940-60s, wherein the model simulation exhibit a weak increasing trend (0.05 degree per decade) instead. MM results revealed a compromised spatial pattern of the linear trend of surface temperature during a typical period (1601-1800 AD) in Little Ice Age, which basically accorded with the phase transitions of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO). Through the empirical orthogonal functions and power spectrum analysis, it was demonstrated that, compared with the pure simulations of CCSM4, MM made significant improvement of decadal variability for the gridded temperature in North America by merging the temperature-sensitive tree ring records.

Simulated permafrost soil thermal dynamics during 1960-2009 in eight offline processed-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, S.; Gouttevin, I.; Krinner, G.; Ciais, P.

2013-12-01

Permafrost soil thermal dynamics not only determine the status of permafrost, but also have large impacts on permafrost organic carbon decomposition. Here, we used eight processed based models that participated in the Vulnerability Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (RCN) project to investigate: (1) the trends in soil temperature at different depths over the northern hemisphere permafrost region during the past five decades, and (2) which factors drive trends and inter-annual variability of permafrost soil temperature? The simulated annual soil temperature at 20cm increases by ~0.02 °C per year from 1960 to 2009 (ranging from 0.00 °C per year in CoLM to 0.04 °C per year in ISBA). Most models simulated more warming of soil in spring and winter than in summer and autumn, although there were different seasonal trends in different models. Trends in soil temperature decrease with soil depth in all models. To quantify the contributions of various factors (air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation etc.) to trends and inter-annual variation in soil temperature, we ran offline models with detrended air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation, respectively. Our results suggest that both annual air temperature and downward longwave radiation significantly correlate with annual soil temperature. Moreover, trend in air temperature and downward longwave radiation contribute 30% and 60% to trends in soil temperature (0 - 200cm), respectively, during the period 1960-2009. Spatial distributions of trend in annual soil temperature at 20cm from R01 simulations of (a) CLM4, (b) CoLM, (c) ISBA, (d) JULES, (e) LPJ_GUESS, (f) ORCHIDEE, (g) UVic and (h) UW-VIC during the period 1960-2009.

Improvement of Mars surface snow albedo modeling in LMD Mars GCM with SNICAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, D.; Flanner, M.; Millour, E.

2017-12-01

The current version of Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Mars GCM (original-MGCM) uses annually repeating (prescribed) albedo values from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations. We integrate the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model with MGCM (SNICAR-MGCM) to prognostically determine H2O and CO2 ice cap albedos interactively in the model. Over snow-covered regions mean SNICAR-MGCM albedo is higher by about 0.034 than original-MGCM. Changes in albedo and surface dust content also impact the shortwave energy flux at the surface. SNICAR-MGCM model simulates a change of -1.26 W/m2 shortwave flux on a global scale. Globally, net CO2 ice deposition increases by about 4% over one Martian annual cycle as compared to original-MGCM simulations. SNICAR integration reduces the net mean global surface temperature, and the global surface pressure of Mars by about 0.87% and 2.5% respectively. Changes in albedo also show a similar distribution as dust deposition over the globe. The SNICAR-MGCM model generates albedos with higher sensitivity to surface dust content as compared to original-MGCM. For snow-covered regions, we improve the correlation between albedo and optical depth of dust from -0.91 to -0.97 with SNICAR-MGCM as compared to original-MGCM. Using new diagnostic capabilities with this model, we find that cryospheric surfaces (with dust) increase the global surface albedo of Mars by 0.022. The cryospheric effect is severely muted by dust in snow, however, which acts to decrease the planet-mean surface albedo by 0.06.

Global convergence in the temperature sensitivity of respiration at ecosystem level.

PubMed

Mahecha, Miguel D; Reichstein, Markus; Carvalhais, Nuno; Lasslop, Gitta; Lange, Holger; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Vargas, Rodrigo; Ammann, Christof; Arain, M Altaf; Cescatti, Alessandro; Janssens, Ivan A; Migliavacca, Mirco; Montagnani, Leonardo; Richardson, Andrew D

2010-08-13

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from the land surface is a major flux in the global carbon cycle, antipodal to photosynthetic CO(2) uptake. Understanding the sensitivity of respiratory processes to temperature is central for quantifying the climate-carbon cycle feedback. We approximated the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystem respiration to air temperature (Q(10)) across 60 FLUXNET sites with the use of a methodology that circumvents confounding effects. Contrary to previous findings, our results suggest that Q(10) is independent of mean annual temperature, does not differ among biomes, and is confined to values around 1.4 +/- 0.1. The strong relation between photosynthesis and respiration, by contrast, is highly variable among sites. The results may partly explain a less pronounced climate-carbon cycle feedback than suggested by current carbon cycle climate models.

Temperature and salinity variability in the exit passages of the Indonesian Throughflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprintall, Janet; Potemra, James T.; Hautala, Susan L.; Bray, Nancy A.; Pandoe, Wahyu W.

2003-07-01

The Indonesian Throughflow was monitored from December 1995 until May 1999 in the five major exit passages of the Lesser Sunda Islands, as it flows from the Indonesian interior seas into the southeast Indian Ocean. The monitoring array included pairs of shallow pressure gauges at each side of the straits, equipped with temperature and salinity sensors. As in the inferred geostrophic velocity from the cross-strait pressure gauge data, the temperature and salinity data show strong variability over all time scales related to the local regional and remote forcing mechanisms of heat, freshwater and wind. The annual cycle dominates the temperature time series, with warmest temperatures occurring during the austral summer northwest monsoon, except in Lombok Strait where the semi-annual signal is dominant, and related to the Indian Ocean westerly wind-forced Kelvin waves during the monsoon transitions that supply Indian Ocean warmer surface water to the strait. In the salinity data, the annual signal again dominates the time series in all straits, with a distinct freshening occurring in March-May. This is partly related to the rainfall and resultant voluminous river runoff impacting the region, one month after the wetter northwest monsoon ends in March. The fresh, warm water from the monsoon-transition Indian Ocean Kelvin wave also contributes to the freshening observed in May. There is little cross-strait gradient in near-surface temperature and salinity through the outflow straits, except in Lombok Strait, where Lombok is warmer (except during the northwest monsoon) and fresher than the Bali site (especially during March through May). A fortnightly signal in temperature is found in Ombai and Sumba Straits, and is probably related to the proximity of these straits to the interior Banda Sea where the fortnightly tidal signal is strong. The fortnightly signal is also evident at the Bali site, although not at the Lombok site. Numerous ADCP surveys taken during the survey period suggest a western intensification of the flow through Lombok Strait, such that the Bali site also may be more influenced by the internal Indonesian seas. Finally, there is regional variability in temperature and salinity on interannual time scales. From mid-1997 through early 1998, the region is cooler and saltier than normal. These property changes are related to both the strong 1997-1998 El Niño event in the Pacific, and the strong 1997 Dipole Mode in the Indian Ocean, which together can result in lower regional precipitation; lower transport of the fresh, warm Throughflow water; and changes in the upwelling regime along the Lesser Sunda Island chain. From mid-1998 on, warmer conditions returned to the region probably related to the La Niña event.

Sr/Ca proxy sea-surface temperature reconstructions from modern and holocene Montastraea faveolata specimens from the Dry Tortugas National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flannery, Jennifer A.; Poore, Richard Z.

2013-01-01

Sr/Ca ratios from skeletal samples from two Montastraea faveolata corals (one modern, one Holocene, ~6 Ka) from the Dry Tortugas National Park were measured as a proxy for sea-surface temperature (SST). We sampled coral specimens with a computer-driven triaxial micromilling machine, which yielded an average of 15 homogenous samples per annual growth increment. We regressed Sr/Ca values from resulting powdered samples against a local SST record to obtain a calibration equation of Sr/Ca = -0.0392 SST + 10.205, R = -0.97. The resulting calibration was used to generate a 47-year modern (1961-2008) and a 7-year Holocene (~6 Ka) Sr/Ca subannually resolved proxy record of SST. The modern M. faveolata yields well-defined annual Sr/Ca cycles ranging in amplitude from ~0.3 and 0.5 mmol/mol. The amplitude of ~0.3 to 0.5 mmol/mol equates to a 10-15°C seasonal SST amplitude, which is consistent with available local instrumental records. Summer maxima proxy SSTs calculated from the modern coral Sr/ Ca tend to be fairly stable: most SST maxima from 1961–2008 are 29°C ± 1°C. In contrast, winter minimum SST calculated in the 47-year modern time-series are highly variable, with a cool interval in the early to mid-1970s. The Holocene (~6 Ka) Montastraea faveolata coral also yields distinct annual Sr/Ca cycles with amplitudes ranging from ~0.3 to 0.6 mmol/mol. Absolute Sr/Ca values and thus resulting SST estimates over the ~7-year long record are similar to those from the modern coral. We conclude that Sr/Ca from Montastraea faveolata has high potential for developing subannually resolved Holocene SST records.

Global Distribution of Outbreaks of Water-Associated Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Yang, Kun; LeJeune, Jeffrey; Alsdorf, Doug; Lu, Bo; Shum, C. K.; Liang, Song

2012-01-01

Background Water plays an important role in the transmission of many infectious diseases, which pose a great burden on global public health. However, the global distribution of these water-associated infectious diseases and underlying factors remain largely unexplored. Methods and Findings Based on the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON), a global database including water-associated pathogens and diseases was developed. In this study, reported outbreak events associated with corresponding water-associated infectious diseases from 1991 to 2008 were extracted from the database. The location of each reported outbreak event was identified and geocoded into a GIS database. Also collected in the GIS database included geo-referenced socio-environmental information including population density (2000), annual accumulated temperature, surface water area, and average annual precipitation. Poisson models with Bayesian inference were developed to explore the association between these socio-environmental factors and distribution of the reported outbreak events. Based on model predictions a global relative risk map was generated. A total of 1,428 reported outbreak events were retrieved from the database. The analysis suggested that outbreaks of water-associated diseases are significantly correlated with socio-environmental factors. Population density is a significant risk factor for all categories of reported outbreaks of water-associated diseases; water-related diseases (e.g., vector-borne diseases) are associated with accumulated temperature; water-washed diseases (e.g., conjunctivitis) are inversely related to surface water area; both water-borne and water-related diseases are inversely related to average annual rainfall. Based on the model predictions, “hotspots” of risks for all categories of water-associated diseases were explored. Conclusions At the global scale, water-associated infectious diseases are significantly correlated with socio-environmental factors, impacting all regions which are affected disproportionately by different categories of water-associated infectious diseases. PMID:22348158

Concentrations and annual fluxes for selected water-quality constituents from the USGS National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) 1996-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Valerie J.; Hooper, Richard P.; Aulenbach, Brent T.; Janet, Mary

2001-01-01

This report contains concentrations and annual mass fluxes (loadings) for a broad range of water-quality constituents measured during 1996-2000 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN). During this period, NASQAN operated a network of 40-42 stations in four of the largest river basins of the USA: the Colorado, the Columbia, the Mississippi (including the Missouri and Ohio), and the Rio Grande. The report contains surface-water quality data, streamflow data, field measurements (e.g. water temperature and pH), sediment-chemistry data, and quality-assurance data; interpretive products include annual and average loads, regression parameters for models used to estimate loads, sub-basin yield maps, maps depicting percent detections for censored constituents, and diagrams depicting flow-weighted average concentrations. Where possible, a regression model relating concentration to discharge and season was used for flux estimation. The interpretive context provided by annual loads includes identifying source and sink areas for constituents and estimating the loadings to receiving waters, such as reservoirs or the ocean.

The impact of climate change on the expansion of Ixodes persulcatus habitat and the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in the north of European Russia

PubMed Central

Tokarevich, Nikolay K.; Tronin, Andrey A.; Blinova, Olga V.; Buzinov, Roman V.; Boltenkov, Vitaliy P.; Yurasova, Elena D.; Nurse, Jo

2011-01-01

Background The increase in tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence is observed in recent decades in a number of subarctic countries. The reasons of it are widely discussed in scientific publications. The objective of this study was to understand if the climate change in Arkhangelsk Oblast (AO) situated in the north of European subarctic zone of Russia has real impact on the northward expansion of Ixodid ticks and stipulates the increase in TBE incidence. Methods This study analyzes: TBE incidence in AO and throughout Russia, the results of Ixodid ticks collecting in a number of sites in AO, and TBE virus prevalence in those ticks, the data on tick bite incidence in AO, and meteorological data on AO mean annual air temperatures and precipitations. Results It is established that in recent years TBE incidence in AO tended to increase contrary to its apparent decrease nationwide. In last 10 years, there was nearly 50-fold rise in TBE incidence in AO when compared with 1980–1989. Probably, the increase both in mean annual air temperatures and temperatures during tick active season resulted in the northward expansion of Ixodes Persulcatus, main TBE virus vector. The Ixodid ticks expansion is confirmed both by the results of ticks flagging from the surface vegetation and by the tick bite incidence in the population of AO locations earlier free from ticks. Our mathematical (correlation and regression) analysis of available data revealed a distinct correlation between TBE incidence and the growth of mean annual air temperatures in AO in 1990–2009. Conclusion Not ruling out other factors, we conclude that climate change contributed much to the TBE incidence increase in AO. PMID:22028678

Ground water occurrence and contributions to streamflow in an alpine catchment, Colorado Front Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, D.W.; Schrott, L.; Webb, R.; Campbell, D.H.; Torizzo, A.O.; Dornblaser, M.

2003-01-01

Ground water occurrence, movement, and its contribution to streamflow were investigated in Loch Vale, an alpine catchment in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Hydrogeomorphologic mapping, seismic refraction measurements, and porosity and permeability estimates indicate that talus slopes are the primary ground water reservoir, with a maximum storage capacity that is equal to, or greater than, total annual discharge from the basin (5.4 ± 0.8 × 106 m3). Although snowmelt and glacial melt provide the majority of annual water flux to the basin, tracer tests and gauging along a stream transect indicate that ground water flowing from talus can account for ≥75% of streamflow during storms and the winter base flow period. The discharge response of talus springs to storms and snowmelt reflects rapid transmittal of water through coarse debris at the talus surface and slower release of water from finer-grained sediments at depth.Ice stored in permafrost (including rock glaciers) is the second largest ground water reservoir in Loch Vale; it represents a significant, but seldom recognized, ground water reservoir in alpine terrain. Mean annual air temperatures are sufficiently cold to support permafrost above 3460 m; however, air temperatures have increased 1.1° to 1.4°C since the early 1990s, consistent with long-term (1976–2000) increases in air temperature measured at other high-elevation sites in the Front Range, European Alps, and Peruvian Andes. If other climatic factors remain constant, the increase in air temperatures at Loch Vale is sufficient to increase the lower elevational limit of permafrost by 150 to 190 m. Although this could cause a short-term increase in streamflow, it may ultimately result in decreased flow in the future.

Relationship Between Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Heat Balance Trends in the Tropical Oceans: The Crucial Role of Surface Wind Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.; Sun, X.

2016-12-01

Multiple atmospheric and ocean reanalyses are analyzed for 1980-2015 to understand annual-mean adjustments of the surface heat balance over the tropical oceans as the climate warms. Linear trends are examined, with statistical significance evaluated. While surface heat budgets and sea surface temperatures are mutually adjusted fields, insights into the physical processes of this adjustment and the implications for temperature trends can be identified. Two second-generation reanalyses, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, agree well on the distributions and magnitudes of trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere to the ocean. Trends in the net longwave and sensible heat fluxes are generally small, and trends in solar radiation absorbed are only influential regionally and vary among the reanalyses. The largest contribution is from latent heat flux trends. Contributions to these trends associated with surface temperature (thermal-driving), 10-m wind (dynamical-driving) and specific humidity (hydrological-driving) trends are estimated. The dynamically-driven latent heat flux dominates and explains much of the regionality of the multi-decadal heat flux trends. However, trends in the net surface heat flux alone do not match the observed SSTs trends well, indicating that the redistribution of heat within the ocean mixed layer is also important. Ocean mixed layer heat budgets in various ocean reanalyses are examined to understand this redistribution, and we again identify a crucial role for changes in the surface wind. Acceleration of the tropical easterlies is associated with strengthening of the equatorial undercurrents in both the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. In the Pacific, where the EUC is also shoaling, the result is enhanced warm-water advection into the central Pacific. This advective warming is superimposed on cooling due to enhanced evaporation and equatorial upwelling, which are also associated with wind trends, to determine the observed pattern of SST trends.

Biogeographic variation in evergreen conifer needle longevity and impacts on boreal forest carbon cycle projections

PubMed Central

Reich, Peter B.; Rich, Roy L.; Lu, Xingjie; Wang, Ying-Ping; Oleksyn, Jacek

2014-01-01

Leaf life span is an important plant trait associated with interspecific variation in leaf, organismal, and ecosystem processes. We hypothesized that intraspecific variation in gymnosperm needle traits with latitude reflects both selection and acclimation for traits adaptive to the associated temperature and moisture gradient. This hypothesis was supported, because across 127 sites along a 2,160-km gradient in North America individuals of Picea glauca, Picea mariana, Pinus banksiana, and Abies balsamea had longer needle life span and lower tissue nitrogen concentration with decreasing mean annual temperature. Similar patterns were noted for Pinus sylvestris across a north–south gradient in Europe. These differences highlight needle longevity as an adaptive feature important to ecological success of boreal conifers across broad climatic ranges. Additionally, differences in leaf life span directly affect annual foliage turnover rate, which along with needle physiology partially regulates carbon cycling through effects on gross primary production and net canopy carbon export. However, most, if not all, global land surface models parameterize needle longevity of boreal evergreen forests as if it were a constant. We incorporated temperature-dependent needle longevity and %nitrogen, and biomass allocation, into a land surface model, Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange, to assess their impacts on carbon cycling processes. Incorporating realistic parameterization of these variables improved predictions of canopy leaf area index and gross primary production compared with observations from flux sites. Finally, increasingly low foliage turnover and biomass fraction toward the cold far north indicate that a surprisingly small fraction of new biomass is allocated to foliage under such conditions. PMID:25225397

Exploiting satellite earth observation to quantify current global oceanic DMS flux and its future climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Land, P. E.; Shutler, J. D.; Bell, T. G.; Yang, M.

2014-11-01

We used coincident Envisat RA2 and AATSR temperature and wind speed data from 2008/2009 to calculate the global net sea-air flux of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which we estimate to be 19.6 Tg S a-1. Our monthly flux calculations are compared to open ocean eddy correlation measurements of DMS flux from 10 recent cruises, with a root mean square difference of 3.1 μmol m-2 day-1. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied temperature, salinity, surface wind speed, and aqueous DMS concentration, using fixed global changes as well as CMIP5 model output. The range of DMS flux in future climate scenarios is discussed. The CMIP5 model predicts a reduction in surface wind speed and we estimate that this will decrease the global annual sea-air flux of DMS by 22% over 25 years. Concurrent changes in temperature, salinity, and DMS concentration increase the global flux by much smaller amounts. The net effect of all CMIP5 modelled 25 year predictions was a 19% reduction in global DMS flux. 25 year DMS concentration changes had significant regional effects, some positive (Southern Ocean, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific) and some negative (isolated regions along the Equator and in the Indian Ocean). Using satellite-detected coverage of coccolithophore blooms, our estimate of their contribution to North Atlantic DMS emissions suggests that the coccolithophores contribute only a small percentage of the North Atlantic annual flux estimate, but may be more important in the summertime and in the northeast Atlantic.

Seasonal emanation of radon at Ghuttu, northwest Himalaya: Differentiation of atmospheric temperature and pressure influences.

PubMed

Kamra, Leena

2015-11-01

Continuous monitoring of radon along with meteorological parameters has been carried out in a seismically active area of Garhwal region, northwest Himalaya, within the frame work of earthquake precursory research. Radon measurements are carried out by using a gamma ray detector installed in the air column at a depth of 10m in a 68m deep borehole. The analysis of long time series for 2006-2012 shows strong seasonal variability masked by diurnal and multi-day variations. Isolation of a seasonal cycle by minimising short-time by 31 day running average shows a strong seasonal variation with unambiguous dependence on atmospheric temperature and pressure. The seasonal characteristics of radon concentrations are positively correlated to atmospheric temperature (R=0.95) and negatively correlated to atmospheric pressure (R=-0.82). The temperature and pressure variation in their annual progressions are negatively correlated. The calculations of partial correlation coefficient permit us to conclude that atmospheric temperature plays a dominant role in controlling the variability of radon in borehole, 71% of the variability in radon arises from the variation in atmospheric temperature and about 6% of the variability is contributed by atmospheric pressure. The influence of pressure variations in an annual cycle appears to be a pseudo-effect, resulting from the negative correlation between temperature and pressure variations. Incorporation of these results explains the varying and even contradictory claims regarding the influence of the pressure variability on radon changes in the published literature. Temperature dependence, facilitated by the temperature gradient in the borehole, controls the transportation of radon from the deep interior to the surface. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Negative response of photosynthesis to natural and projected high seawater temperatures estimated by pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry in a temperate coral.

PubMed

Caroselli, Erik; Falini, Giuseppe; Goffredo, Stefano; Dubinsky, Zvy; Levy, Oren

2015-01-01

Balanophyllia europaea is a shallow water solitary zooxanthellate coral, endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. Extensive field studies across a latitudinal temperature gradient highlight detrimental effects of rising temperatures on its growth, demography, and skeletal characteristics, suggesting that depression of photosynthesis at high temperatures might cause these negative effects. Here we test this hypothesis by analyzing, by means of pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry, the photosynthetic efficiency of B. europaea specimens exposed in aquaria to the annual range of temperatures experienced in the field (13, 18, and 28°C), and two extreme temperatures expected for 2100 as a consequence of global warming (29 and 32°C). The indicators of photosynthetic performance analyzed (maximum and effective quantum yield) showed that maximum efficiency was reached at 20.0-21.6°C, slightly higher than the annual mean temperature in the field (18°C). Photosynthetic efficiency decreased from 20.0 to 13°C and even more strongly from 21.6 to 32°C. An unusual form of bleaching was observed, with a maximum zooxanthellae density at 18°C that strongly decreased from 18 to 32°C. Chlorophyll a concentration per zooxanthellae cell showed an opposite trend as it was minimal at 18°C and increased from 18 to 32°C. Since the areal chlorophyll concentration is the product of the zooxanthellae density and its cellular content, these trends resulted in a homogeneous chlorophyll concentration per coral surface across temperature treatments. This confirms that B. europaea photosynthesis is progressively depressed at temperatures >21.6°C, supporting previous hypotheses raised by the studies on growth and demography of this species. This study also confirms the threats posed to this species by the ongoing seawater warming.

Change point detection of the Persian Gulf sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirvani, A.

2017-01-01

In this study, the Student's t parametric and Mann-Whitney nonparametric change point models (CPMs) were applied to detect change point in the annual Persian Gulf sea surface temperature anomalies (PGSSTA) time series for the period 1951-2013. The PGSSTA time series, which were serially correlated, were transformed to produce an uncorrelated pre-whitened time series. The pre-whitened PGSSTA time series were utilized as the input file of change point models. Both the applied parametric and nonparametric CPMs estimated the change point in the PGSSTA in 1992. The PGSSTA follow the normal distribution up to 1992 and thereafter, but with a different mean value after year 1992. The estimated slope of linear trend in PGSSTA time series for the period 1951-1992 was negative; however, that was positive after the detected change point. Unlike the PGSSTA, the applied CPMs suggested no change point in the Niño3.4SSTA time series.

Predicting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Morton, Douglas C.; Jin, Yufang; DeFries, Ruth S.; Collatz, George J.; Kasibhatla, Prasad S.; Giglio, Louis; Jin, Yufang; Marlier, Miriam

2011-01-01

Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. Here we investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in satellite-derived estimates of fire activity in South America and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. We found that the Oceanic Ni o Index (ONI) was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model that predicted regional annual fire season severity (FSS) with 3-5 month lead times. Our approach provides the foundation for an early warning system for forecasting the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for mitigation of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions.

Sea Surface Temperature of the mid-Piacenzian Ocean: A Data-Model Comparison

PubMed Central

Dowsett, Harry J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Bentsen, Mats; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Chan, Wing-Le; Contoux, Camille; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Jonas, Jeff A.; Jost, Anne; Kamae, Youichi; Lohmann, Gerrit; Lunt, Daniel J.; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Ramstein, Gilles; Riesselman, Christina R.; Robinson, Marci M.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Stepanek, Christian; Strother, Stephanie L.; Ueda, Hiroaki; Yan, Qing; Zhang, Zhongshi

2013-01-01

The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. PMID:23774736

Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

PubMed Central

Bennie, Jonathan; Hodgson, Jenny A; Lawson, Callum R; Holloway, Crispin TR; Roy, David B; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D; Wilson, Robert J

2013-01-01

Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions. PMID:23701124

Reconstructing paleoclimate fields using online data assimilation with a linear inverse model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, Walter A.; Hakim, Gregory J.

2017-05-01

We examine the skill of a new approach to climate field reconstructions (CFRs) using an online paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) method. Several recent studies have foregone climate model forecasts during assimilation due to the computational expense of running coupled global climate models (CGCMs) and the relatively low skill of these forecasts on longer timescales. Here we greatly diminish the computational cost by employing an empirical forecast model (linear inverse model, LIM), which has been shown to have skill comparable to CGCMs for forecasting annual-to-decadal surface temperature anomalies. We reconstruct annual-average 2 m air temperature over the instrumental period (1850-2000) using proxy records from the PAGES 2k Consortium Phase 1 database; proxy models for estimating proxy observations are calibrated on GISTEMP surface temperature analyses. We compare results for LIMs calibrated using observational (Berkeley Earth), reanalysis (20th Century Reanalysis), and CMIP5 climate model (CCSM4 and MPI) data relative to a control offline reconstruction method. Generally, we find that the usage of LIM forecasts for online PDA increases reconstruction agreement with the instrumental record for both spatial fields and global mean temperature (GMT). Specifically, the coefficient of efficiency (CE) skill metric for detrended GMT increases by an average of 57 % over the offline benchmark. LIM experiments display a common pattern of skill improvement in the spatial fields over Northern Hemisphere land areas and in the high-latitude North Atlantic-Barents Sea corridor. Experiments for non-CGCM-calibrated LIMs reveal region-specific reductions in spatial skill compared to the offline control, likely due to aspects of the LIM calibration process. Overall, the CGCM-calibrated LIMs have the best performance when considering both spatial fields and GMT. A comparison with the persistence forecast experiment suggests that improvements are associated with the linear dynamical constraints of the forecast and not simply persistence of temperature anomalies.

Enhanced-Resolution Satellite Microwave Brightness Temperature Records for Mapping Boreal-Arctic Landscape Freeze-Thaw Heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Du, J.; Kimball, J. S.

2017-12-01

The landscape freeze-thaw (FT) status derived from satellite microwave remote sensing is closely linked to vegetation phenology and productivity, surface energy exchange, evapotranspiration, snow/ice melt dynamics, and trace gas fluxes over land areas affected by seasonally frozen temperatures. A long-term global satellite microwave Earth System Data Record of daily landscape freeze-thaw status (FT-ESDR) was developed using similar calibrated 37GHz, vertically-polarized (V-pol) brightness temperatures (Tb) from SMMR, SSM/I, and SSMIS sensors. The FT-ESDR shows mean annual spatial classification accuracies of 90.3 and 84.3 % for PM and AM overpass retrievals relative surface air temperature (SAT) measurement based FT estimates from global weather stations. However, the coarse FT-ESDR gridding (25-km) is insufficient to distinguish finer scale FT heterogeneity. In this study, we tested alternative finer scale FT estimates derived from two enhanced polar-grid (3.125-km and 6-km resolution), 36.5 GHz V-pol Tb records derived from calibrated AMSR-E and AMSR2 sensor observations. The daily FT estimates are derived using a modified seasonal threshold algorithm that classifies daily Tb variations in relation to grid cell-wise FT thresholds calibrated using ERA-Interim reanalysis based SAT, downscaled using a digital terrain map and estimated temperature lapse rates. The resulting polar-grid FT records for a selected study year (2004) show mean annual spatial classification accuracies of 90.1% (84.2%) and 93.1% (85.8%) for respective PM (AM) 3.125km and 6-km Tb retrievals relative to in situ SAT measurement based FT estimates from regional weather stations. Areas with enhanced FT accuracy include water-land boundaries and mountainous terrain. Differences in FT patterns and relative accuracy obtained from the enhanced grid Tb records were attributed to several factors, including different noise contributions from underlying Tb processing and spatial mismatches between Tb retrievals and SAT calibrated FT thresholds.

Implementing and Evaluating Variable Soil Thickness in the Community Land Model, Version 4.5 (CLM4.5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunke, Michael A.; Broxton, Patrick; Pelletier, Jon

2016-05-01

One of the recognized weaknesses of land surface models as used in weather and climate models is the assumption of constant soil thickness due to the lack of global estimates of bedrock depth. Using a 30 arcsecond global dataset for the thickness of relatively porous, unconsolidated sediments over bedrock, spatial variation in soil thickness is included here in version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). The number of soil layers for each grid cell is determined from the average soil depth for each 0.9° latitude x 1.25° longitude grid cell. Including variable soil thickness affects the simulations most inmore » regions with shallow bedrock corresponding predominantly to areas of mountainous terrain. The greatest changes are to baseflow, with the annual minimum generally occurring earlier, while smaller changes are seen in surface fluxes like latent heat flux and surface runoff in which only the annual cycle amplitude is increased. These changes are tied to soil moisture changes which are most substantial in locations with shallow bedrock. Total water storage (TWS) anomalies do not change much over most river basins around the globe, since most basins contain mostly deep soils. However, it was found that TWS anomalies substantially differ for a river basin with more mountainous terrain. Additionally, the annual cycle in soil temperature are affected by including realistic soil thicknesses due to changes to heat capacity and thermal conductivity.« less

Comparative climatology of four marine stratocumulus regimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanson, Howard P.

1990-01-01

The climatology of marine stratocumulus (MSc) cloud regimes off the west coasts of California, Peru, Morocco, and Angola are examined. Long-term, annual averages are presented for several quantities of interest in the four MSc regimes. The climatologies were constructed using the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). A 40 year time series of observations was extracted for 32 x 32 deg analysis domains. The data were taken from the monthly-averaged, 2 deg product. The resolution of the analysis is therefore limited to scales of greater than 200 km with submonthly variability not resolved. The averages of total cloud cover, sea surface temperature, and surface pressure are presented.

Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

PubMed

Deng, Cai; Zhang, Wanchang

2018-05-30

As the backland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the river source region is highly sensitive to changes in global climate. Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. A geographically weighted regression model was applied to estimate synchronic air temperature from 2001 to 2015 using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometry (MODIS) data. The results were R 2  = 0.913 and RMSE = 2.47 °C, which confirmed the feasibility of the estimation. The spatial distribution and variation characteristics of the average annual and seasonal air temperature were analyzed. The findings are as follows: (1) the distribution of average annual air temperature has significant terrain characteristics. The reduction in average annual air temperature along the elevation of the region is 0.19 °C/km, whereas the reduction in the average annual air temperature along the latitude is 0.04 °C/degree. (2) The average annual air temperature increase in the region is 0.37 °C/decade. The average air temperature increase could be arranged in the following decreasing order: Yangtze River Basin > Mekong River Basin > Nujiang River Basin > Yarlung Zangbo River Basin > Yellow River Basin. The fastest, namely, Yangtze River Basin, is 0.47 °C/decade. (3) The average air temperature rise in spring, summer, and winter generally increases with higher altitude. The average annual air temperature in different types of lands following a decreasing order is as follows: wetland > construction land > bare land glacier > shrub grassland > arable land > forest land > water body and that of the fastest one, wetland, is 0.13 °C/year.

Annual Cycle of Surface Longwave Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mlynczak, Pamela E.; Smith, G. Louis; Wilber, Anne C.; Stackhouse, Paul W.

2011-01-01

The annual cycles of upward and downward longwave fluxes at the Earth s surface are investigated by use of the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Data Set. Because of the immense difference between the heat capacity of land and ocean, the surface of Earth is partitioned into these two categories. Principal component analysis is used to quantify the annual cycles. Over land, the first principal component describes over 95% of the variance of the annual cycle of the upward and downward longwave fluxes. Over ocean the first term describes more than 87% of these annual cycles. Empirical orthogonal functions show the corresponding geographical distributions of these cycles. Phase plane diagrams of the annual cycles of upward longwave fluxes as a function of net shortwave flux show the thermal inertia of land and ocean.

Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

2014-12-01

Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST, suggesting a close coupling between surface temperature and SWV.

Tertiary climates and floristic relationships at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolfe, J.A.

1980-01-01

During the Paleocene and Eocene, climates were characterized by a low mean annual range of temperature (a maximum of 10-15??C), a moderate to high mean annual temperature (10-20??C), and abundant precipitation; strong broad-leaved evergreen vegetation extended to almost lat. 60??N during the Paleocene and to well above 61??N during the Eocene. Poleward of the broad-leaved evergreen forests were forests that were broad-leaved deciduous; these deciduous forests, however, were unlike extant broad-leaved deciduous forests in general floristic composition and physiognomy. Coniferous forests probably occupied the northernmost latitudes. At the end of the Eocene, a major climatic deterioration resulted in a high (> 30??C) mean annual range of temperature and a low mean annual temperature (< 10??C). Vegetation represented temperate broad-leaved deciduous and coniferous forests. The Oligocene and Neogene climatic trends represent a decrease in both mean annual range of temperature and mean annual temperature. Tundra vegetation did not appear until late in the Neogene. The present distribution of broad-leaved evergreens concomitant with the principles of plant physiology indicates that present winter light conditions at high latitudes could not support broad-leaved evergreen forest. A possible solution to the problem is to increase winter light by lessening the inclination of the earth's rotational axis. ?? 1980.

Sea Surface Temperature Records Using Sr/Ca Ratios in a Siderastrea siderea Coral from SE Cuba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fargher, H. A.; Hughen, K. A.; Ossolinski, J. E.; Bretos, F.; Siciliano, D.; Gonzalez, P.

2015-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability from Cuba remains relatively unknown compared to the rest of the Caribbean. Cuba sits near an inflection point in the spatial pattern of SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and long SST records from the region could reveal changes in the influence of this climate system through time. A Siderastrea siderea coral from the Jardínes de la Reina in southern Cuba was drilled to obtain a 220 year long archive of environmental change. The genus Siderastrea has not been extensively studied as an SST archive, yet Sr/Ca ratios in the Cuban core show a clear seasonal signal and strong correlation to instrumental SST data (r2 = 0.86 and 0.36 for monthly and interannual (winter season) timescales, respectively). Annual growth rates (linear extension) of the coral are observed to have a minor influence on Sr/Ca variability, but do not show a direct correlation to SST on timescales from annual to multidecadal. Sr/Ca measurements from the Cuban coral are used to reconstruct monthly and seasonal (winter, summer) SST extending back more than two centuries. Wintertime SST in southern Cuba is compared to other coral Sr/Ca records of winter-season SST from locations sensitive to the NAO in order to investigate the stationarity of the NAO SST 'fingerprint' through time.

Leaf anatomical and photosynthetic acclimation to cool temperature and high light in two winter versus two summer annuals.

PubMed

Cohu, Christopher M; Muller, Onno; Adams, William W; Demmig-Adams, Barbara

2014-09-01

Acclimation of foliar features to cool temperature and high light was characterized in winter (Spinacia oleracea L. cv. Giant Nobel; Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynhold Col-0 and ecotypes from Sweden and Italy) versus summer (Helianthus annuus L. cv. Soraya; Cucurbita pepo L. cv. Italian Zucchini Romanesco) annuals. Significant relationships existed among leaf dry mass per area, photosynthesis, leaf thickness and palisade mesophyll thickness. While the acclimatory response of the summer annuals to cool temperature and/or high light levels was limited, the winter annuals increased the number of palisade cell layers, ranging from two layers under moderate light and warm temperature to between four and five layers under cool temperature and high light. A significant relationship was also found between palisade tissue thickness and either cross-sectional area or number of phloem cells (each normalized by vein density) in minor veins among all four species and growth regimes. The two winter annuals, but not the summer annuals, thus exhibited acclimatory adjustments of minor vein phloem to cool temperature and/or high light, with more numerous and larger phloem cells and a higher maximal photosynthesis rate. The upregulation of photosynthesis in winter annuals in response to low growth temperature may thus depend on not only (1) a greater volume of photosynthesizing palisade tissue but also (2) leaf veins containing additional phloem cells and presumably capable of exporting a greater volume of sugars from the leaves to the rest of the plant. © 2014 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.

Inter-annual variation of the surface temperature of tropical forests from SSM/I observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, H.; Fu, R.; Li, W.; Zhang, S.; Dickinson, R. E.

2014-12-01

Land surface temperatures (LST) within tropical rain forests contribute to climate variation, but observational data are very limited in these regions. In this study, all weather canopy sky temperatures were retrieved using the passive microwave remote sensing data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The remote sensing data used were collected from 1996 to 2012 using two separate satellites—F13 (1996-2009) and F17 (2007-2012). An inter-sensor calibration between the brightness temperatures collected by the two satellites was conducted in order to ensure consistency amongst the instruments. The interannual changes of LST associated with the dry and wet anomalies were investigated in both regions. The dominant spatial and temporal patterns for inter-seasonal variations of the LST over the tropical rainforest were analyzed, and the impacts of droughts and El Niños (on LST) were also investigated. The remote sensing results suggest that the morning LST is mainly controlled by atmospheric humidity (which controls longwave radiation) whereas the late afternoon LST is controlled by solar radiation.

Seasonal evolution of the Martian cryptic region: influence of the atmospheric opacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portyankina, G.; Markiewicz, W. J.; Kossacki, K. J.

2005-08-01

Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) performed repeated observations of chosen areas in polar regions to monitor seasonal and/or annual changes. Images E09-00028 and R08-01730 centered at 82.5°S, 41°E were taken in years 2001 and 2003 respectively. They show the same morphological features, however differ significantly in surface albedo, the image from 2001 shows a lower albedo than the one from 2003. Imaged areas lie inside the cryptic region and show spider patterns. The observed interannual variability may be related to the global dust storm that happened in 2001 and finished around Ls=230°, i.e. just before image E09-00028 was taken. Here we model the seasonal ice sublimation/condensation cycle to show that the evolution of this particular area of the cryptic region was affected by the dust storm during year 2001. The model used for the present work has been described in Kossacki and Markiewicz, (2004). It includes self-consistent treatment of the sublimation and condensation of CO2 and H2O ices, and was used to calculate surface temperatures and thicknesses of CO2 and H2O ice layers for the corresponding conditions of these two years. Our modelling shows that the dust storm lowered surface temperatures, and thus caused later than usual seasonal sublimation of both CO2 and water ices. It also considerably decreased surface albedo and these two important effects almost cancel: the solar flux is reduced during a dust storm but at the same time the dust that precipitates onto the surface reduces the albedo and thus allows a bigger fraction of the solar radiation to be absorbed. The surface temperature stays at about 146K for almost half of the Martian year, both during 2001 and 2003. We also considered impact of the surface roughness: it results in some smoothing of the average temperature rise that is associated with the defrosting of the surface.

Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

2012-04-01

In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

Rewetting of monogroove heat pipe in Space Station radiators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, S. H.

1994-01-01

This annual report summarizes the work accomplished on rewetting of monogroove heat pipe in space station. Specifically, theoretical and experimental investigations of the rewetting characteristics of thin liquid films over unheated and heated capillary grooved plates were performed. To investigate the effect of gravity on rewetting, the grooved surface was placed in upward and downward facing positions. Profound gravitational effects were observed as the rewetting velocity was found to be higher in the upward than in the downward facing orientation. The difference was even greater with higher initial plate temperatures. With either orientation, it was found that the rewetting velocity increased with the initial plate temperature. But when the temperature was raised above a rewetting temperature, the rewetting velocity decreased with the initial plate temperature. Hydrodynamically controlled and heat conduction controlled rewetting models were then presented to explain and to predict the rewetting characteristics in these two distinct regions. The predicted rewetting velocities were found to be in good agreement with experimental data with elevated plate temperatures.

Seasonality and Management Affect Land Surface Temperature Differences Between Loblolly Pine and Switchgrass Ecosystems in Central Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlswede, B.; Thomas, R. Q.; O'Halloran, T. L.; Rady, J.; LeMoine, J.

2017-12-01

Changes in land-use and land management can have biogeochemical and biophysical effects on local and global climate. While managed ecosystems provide known food and fiber benefits, their influence on climate is less well quantified. In the southeastern United States, there are numerous types of intensely managed ecosystems but pine plantations and switchgrass fields represent two biogeochemical and biophysical extremes; a tall, low albedo forest with trees harvested after multiple decades vs. a short, higher albedo C4 grass field that is harvested annually. Despite the wide spread use of these ecosystems for timber and bioenergy, a quantitative, empirical evaluation of the net influence of these ecosystems on climate is lacking because it requires measuring both the greenhouse gas and energy balance of the ecosystems while controlling for the background weather and soil environment. To address this need, we established a pair of eddy flux towers in these ecosystems that are co-located (1.5 km apart) in Central Virginia and measured the radiative energy, non-radiative energy and carbon fluxes, along with associated biometeorology variables; the paired site has run since April 2016. During the first 1.5 years (two growing seasons), we found strong seasonality in the difference in surface temperature between the two ecosystems. In the growing seasons, both sites had similar surface temperature despite higher net radiation in pine. Following harvest of the switchgrass in September, the switchgrass temperatures increased relative to pine. In the winter, the pine ecosystem was warmer. We evaluate the drivers of these intra-annual dynamics and compare the climate influence of these biophysical differences to the differences in carbon fluxes between the sites using a suite of established climate regulation services metrics. Overall, our results show tradeoffs exist between the biogeochemical and biophysical climate services in managed ecosystems in the southeastern United States and highlight the importance of seasonality when quantifying how land-use and land-cover change influence climate. These data, when combined with earth system models, will help inform our understanding of how land-use and land change decisions in the southeastern United States will influence local, regional, and global climate.

METRIC model for the estimation and mapping of evapotranspiration in a super intensive olive orchard in Southern Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pôças, Isabel; Nogueira, António; Paço, Teresa A.; Sousa, Adélia; Valente, Fernanda; Silvestre, José; Andrade, José A.; Santos, Francisco L.; Pereira, Luís S.; Allen, Richard G.

2013-04-01

Satellite-based surface energy balance models have been successfully applied to estimate and map evapotranspiration (ET). The METRICtm model, Mapping EvapoTranspiration at high Resolution using Internalized Calibration, is one of such models. METRIC has been widely used over an extensive range of vegetation types and applications, mostly focusing annual crops. In the current study, the single-layer-blended METRIC model was applied to Landsat5 TM and Landsat7 ETM+ images to produce estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) in a super intensive olive orchard in Southern Portugal. In sparse woody canopies as in olive orchards, some adjustments in METRIC application related to the estimation of vegetation temperature and of momentum roughness length and sensible heat flux (H) for tall vegetation must be considered. To minimize biases in H estimates due to uncertainties in the definition of momentum roughness length, the Perrier function based on leaf area index and tree canopy architecture, associated with an adjusted estimation of crop height, was used to obtain momentum roughness length estimates. Additionally, to minimize the biases in surface temperature simulations, due to soil and shadow effects, the computation of radiometric temperature considered a three-source condition, where Ts=fcTc+fshadowTshadow+fsunlitTsunlit. As such, the surface temperature (Ts), derived from the thermal band of the Landsat images, integrates the temperature of the canopy (Tc), the temperature of the shaded ground surface (Tshadow), and the temperature of the sunlit ground surface (Tsunlit), according to the relative fraction of vegetation (fc), shadow (fshadow) and sunlit (fsunlit) ground surface, respectively. As the sunlit canopies are the primary source of energy exchange, the effective temperature for the canopy was estimated by solving the three-source condition equation for Tc. To evaluate METRIC performance to estimate ET over the olive grove, several parameters derived from the algorithm were tested against data collected in the field, including eddy covariance ET, surface temperature over the canopy and soil temperature in shaded and sunlit conditions. Additionally, the results were also compared with results published in the literature. The information obtained so far revealed very interesting perspectives for the use of METRIC in the estimation and mapping of ET in super intensive olive orchards. Thereby, this approach might constitute a useful tool towards the improvement of the efficiency of irrigation water management in this crop. The study described is still under way, and thus further applications of METRIC algorithm to a larger number of images and to olive groves with different tree density are planned.

Air and Ground Surface Temperature Relations in a Mountainous Basin, Wolf Creek, Yukon Territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roadhouse, Emily A.

The links between climate and permafrost are well known, but the precise nature of the relationship between air and ground temperatures remains poorly understood, particularly in complex mountain environments. Although previous studies indicate that elevation and potential incoming solar radiation (PISR) are the two leading factors contributing to the existence of permafrost at a given location, additional factors may also contribute significantly to the existence of mountain permafrost, including vegetation cover, snow accumulation and the degree to which individual mountain landscapes are prone to air temperature inversions. Current mountain permafrost models consider only elevation and aspect, and have not been able to deal with inversion effects in a systematic fashion. This thesis explores the relationship between air and ground surface temperatures and the presence of surface-based inversions at 27 sites within the Wolf Creek basin and surrounding area between 2001 and 2006, as a first step in developing an improved permafrost distribution TTOP model. The TTOP model describes the relationship between the mean annual air temperature and the temperature at the top of permafrost in terms of the surface and thermal offsets (Smith and Riseborough, 2002). Key components of this model are n-factors which relate air and ground climate by establishing the ratio between air and surface freezing (winter) and thawing (summer) degree-days, thus summarizing the surface energy balance on a seasonal basis. Here we examine (1) surface offsets and (2) freezing and thawing n-factor variability at a number of sites through altitudinal treeline in the southern Yukon. Thawing n-factors (nt) measured at individual sites remained relatively constant from one year to the next and may be related to land cover. During the winter, the insulating effect of a thick snow cover results in higher surface temperatures, while thin snow cover results in low surface temperatures more closely related to the winter air temperatures. The application of n-factor modeling techniques within the permafrost region, and the verification of these techniques for a range of natural surfaces, is essential to the determination of the thermal and physical response to potential climate warming in permafrost regions. The presence of temperature inversions presents a unique challenge to permafrost probability mapping in mountainous terrain. While elsewhere the existence of permafrost can be linearly related to elevation, the presence of frequent inversions challenges this assumption, affecting permafrost distribution in ways that the current modeling techniques cannot accurately predict. At sites across the Yukon, inversion-prone sites were predominantly situated in U-shaped valleys, although open slopes, mid-slope ridges and plains were also identified. Within the Wolf Creek basin and surrounding area, inversion episodes have a measurable effect on local air temperatures, occurring during the fall and winter seasons along the Mount Sima trail, and year-round in the palsa valley. Within the discontinuous permafrost zone, where average surface temperatures are often close to zero, even a relatively small change in temperature in the context of future climate change could have a widespread impact on permafrost distribution.

Mapping inter-annual dynamics of open surface water bodies in Oklahoma from Landsat images in 1984 to 2015 at 30-m spatial resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Z.; Xiao, X.; Menarguez, M.; Dong, J.; Qin, Y.

2016-12-01

Open surface water bodies are important water resource for public supply, irrigation, livestock, and wildlife in Oklahoma. The inter-annual variation of Oklahoma water bodies directly affect the water availability for public supply, irrigation and cattle industry. In this study, tens of thousands of Landsat TM/ETM+ images from 1984 to 2015 were used to track the dynamics of open surface water bodies. Both water-related spectral indices and vegetation indices were used to map water bodies for individual images. The resultant maps show that Oklahoma year-long open surface water bodies varied significantly over the last 32 years, with an average annual water body area equals to 2300 km2, accounting for 1.27 % of the Oklahoma state area (181,037 km2). 4.3 million year-long water body pixels were detected in the 32-year accumulated water frequency map, corresponding to 3100 km2. Only 45% ( 1400 km2) of the those pixels had water throughout the 32 years, while the rest 55% pixels had a dry-up period. The smaller water bodies have a higher risk to dry up and a lower probability to have water throughout the years. Drought years could significantly decrease the number of small water bodies and shrink the area of large water bodies, while pluvial years could create large number of small seasonal water bodies. The significant influencing factors of current year water bodies include the precipitation and temperature of current year and the water body condition of the previous year. This water body dynamics study could be used to support water resource management, crop and livestock production, and biodiversity conservation in Oklahoma.

Influence of Leaf Area Index Prescriptions on Simulations of Heat, Moisture, and Carbon Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kala, Jatin; Decker, Mark; Exbrayat, Jean-Francois; Pitman, Andy J.; Carouge, Claire; Evans, Jason P.; Abramowitz, Gab; Mocko, David

2013-01-01

Leaf-area index (LAI), the total one-sided surface area of leaf per ground surface area, is a key component of land surface models. We investigate the influence of differing, plausible LAI prescriptions on heat, moisture, and carbon fluxes simulated by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLEv1.4b) model over the Australian continent. A 15-member ensemble monthly LAI data-set is generated using the MODIS LAI product and gridded observations of temperature and precipitation. Offline simulations lasting 29 years (1980-2008) are carried out at 25 km resolution with the composite monthly means from the MODIS LAI product (control simulation) and compared with simulations using each of the 15-member ensemble monthly-varying LAI data-sets generated. The imposed changes in LAI did not strongly influence the sensible and latent fluxes but the carbon fluxes were more strongly affected. Croplands showed the largest sensitivity in gross primary production with differences ranging from -90 to 60 %. PFTs with high absolute LAI and low inter-annual variability, such as evergreen broadleaf trees, showed the least response to the different LAI prescriptions, whilst those with lower absolute LAI and higher inter-annual variability, such as croplands, were more sensitive. We show that reliance on a single LAI prescription may not accurately reflect the uncertainty in the simulation of the terrestrial carbon fluxes, especially for PFTs with high inter-annual variability. Our study highlights that the accurate representation of LAI in land surface models is key to the simulation of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Hence this will become critical in quantifying the uncertainty in future changes in primary production.

Growth studies of Mytilus californianus using satellite surface temperatures and chlorophyll data for coastal Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, J.; Lakshmi, V.

2013-12-01

The advancement of remote sensing technology has led to better understanding of the spatial and temporal variation in many physical and biological parameters, such as, temperature, salinity, soil moisture, vegetation cover, and community composition. This research takes a novel approach in understanding the temporal and spatial variability of mussel body growth using remotely sensed surface temperatures and chlorophyll-a concentration. Within marine rocky intertidal ecosystems, temperature and food availability influence species abundance, physiological performance, and distribution of mussel species. Current methods to determine the temperature mussel species experience range from in-situ field observations, temperature loggers, temperature models, and using other temperature variables. However, since the temperature that mussel species experience is different from the air temperature due to physical and biological characteristics (size, color, gaping, etc.), it is difficult to accurately predict the thermal stresses they experience. Methods to determine food availability (chlorophyll-a concentration used as a proxy) for mussel species are mostly done at specific study sites using water sampling. This implies that analysis of temperature and food availability across large spatial scales and long temporal scales is not a trivial task given spatial heterogeneity. However, this is an essential step in determination of the impact of changing climate on vulnerable ecosystems such as the marine rocky intertidal system. The purpose of this study was to investigate the potential of using remotely sensed surface temperatures and chlorophyll-a concentration to better understand the temporal and spatial variability of the body growth of the ecologically and economically important rocky intertidal mussel species, Mytilus californianus. Remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST), land surface temperature (LST), intertidal surface temperature (IST), chlorophyll-a concentration, and mussel body growth were collected for eight study sites along the coast of Oregon, USA for a 12 year period from 2000 through 2011. Differences in surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a concentration, and mussel body growth were seen across study sites. The northernmost study site, Cape Meares, had the highest average SST and the lowest average chlorophyll-a concentration. Interestingly, it also had high average mussel growth. Whereas, Cape Arago and Cape Blanco, the two southernmost study sites, had the lowest average SST and lowest average mussel growth, but had higher average chlorophyll-a concentrations. Furthermore, some study sites showed that mussel growth was related to temperature and at other study sites chlorophyll-a concentration was related to mussel growth. The strongest relationship between either temperature or chlorophyll-a concentration, was found at Boiler Bay, Oregon. Approximately 81% of the variations in mean size-specific mussel growth was explained by mean annual LST anomalies. This means that at Boiler Bay, cooler LST years resulted in less mussel growth and warmer years resulted in higher mussel growth. Results suggest that SST may influence mussel body growth more than chlorophyll-a concentration.

Seasonality recorded in Modern and Viking Limpet Shells ( Patella vulgata), Quoygrew, Orkney, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surge, D.; Barrett, J. H.; Milner, N.

2007-12-01

Climate archives contained in shells of the European limpet, Patella vulgata, from Viking shell middens can potentially provide much needed information about seasonality in mid-latitude coastal areas prior to the complicating effects of industrialization. P. vulgata shells are common in the stratified middens accumulated by the Viking inhabitants of Quoygrew, Orkney, and were likely used for baiting fish. Radiocarbon dates and artifacts place these middens between the 9th/10th and 13th centuries. This interval coincides with the Medieval Warm Period. Little is known about the seasonal temperature variation during this time of pre-industrial warming. Before reconstructing climate information from Viking shells, we determined whether P. vulgata preserves environmental and ecological information. Previous work on live-collected specimens from Whitley Bay near Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England, confirmed that: (1) oxygen isotope ratios served as a proxy for sea surface temperature after accounting for a uniform +1.01 +/-0.21 ‰ offset; and (2) annual growth lines occurred during the winter given this location is within the cold-temperature biogeographic province. Winter growth lines and increments are common growth patterns found in marine bivalves from the cold-temperate province along the western North Atlantic. Preliminary isotope data from the 9th/10th century reveals similar winter and summer temperature relative to today and annual growth lines formed during winter, typical of a cold-temperate habitat.

Seasonal hydrologic responses to climate change in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vano, Julie A.; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2015-04-01

Increased temperatures and changes in precipitation will result in fundamental changes in the seasonal distribution of streamflow in the Pacific Northwest and will have serious implications for water resources management. To better understand local impacts of regional climate change, we conducted model experiments to determine hydrologic sensitivities of annual, seasonal, and monthly runoff to imposed annual and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land-surface hydrology model applied at 1/16° latitude-longitude spatial resolution over the Pacific Northwest (PNW), a scale sufficient to support analyses at the hydrologic unit code eight (HUC-8) basin level. These experiments resolve the spatial character of the sensitivity of future water supply to precipitation and temperature changes by identifying the seasons and locations where climate change will have the biggest impact on runoff. The PNW exhibited a diversity of responses, where transitional (intermediate elevation) watersheds experience the greatest seasonal shifts in runoff in response to cool season warming. We also developed a methodology that uses these hydrologic sensitivities as basin-specific transfer functions to estimate future changes in long-term mean monthly hydrographs directly from climate model output of precipitation and temperature. When principles of linearity and superposition apply, these transfer functions can provide feasible first-order estimates of the likely nature of future seasonal streamflow change without performing downscaling and detailed model simulations.

In Situ Global Sea Surface Salinity and Variability from the NCEI Global Thermosalinograph Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Boyer, T.; Zhang, H. M.

2017-12-01

Sea surface salinity (SSS) plays an important role in the global ocean circulations. The variations of sea surface salinity are key indicators of changes in air-sea water fluxes. Using nearly 30 years of in situ measurements of sea surface salinity from thermosalinographs, we will evaluate the variations of the sea surface salinity in the global ocean. The sea surface salinity data used are from our newly-developed NCEI Global Thermosalinograph Database - NCEI-TSG. This database provides a comprehensive set of quality-controlled in-situ sea-surface salinity and temperature measurements collected from over 340 vessels during the period 1989 to the present. The NCEI-TSG is the world's most complete TSG dataset, containing all data from the different TSG data assembly centers, e.g. COAPS (SAMOS), IODE (GOSUD) and AOML, with more historical data from NCEI's archive to be added. Using this unique dataset, we will investigate the spatial variations of the global SSS and its variability. Annual and interannual variability will also be studied at selected regions.

Dynamics behind warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea and its interruption based on in situ measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathew, Simi; Natesan, Usha; Latha, Ganesan; Venkatesan, Ramasamy

2018-05-01

A study of the inter-annual variability of the warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) during the spring transition months was carried out from 2013 to 2015 based on in situ data from moored buoys. An attempt was made to identify the roles of the different variables in the warming of the SEAS (e.g., net heat flux, advection, entrainment, and thickness of the barrier layer during the previous northeast monsoon season). The intense freshening of the SEAS (approximately 2 PSU) occurring in each December, together with the presence of a downwelling Rossby wave, supports the formation of a thick barrier layer during the northeast monsoon season. It is known that the barrier layer thickness, varying each year, plays a major role in the spring warming of the SEAS. Interestingly, an anomalously thick barrier layer occurred during the northeast monsoon season of 2012-2013. However, the highest sea surface temperature (31 °C) was recorded during the last week of April 2015, while the lowest sea surface temperature (29.7 °C) was recorded during the last week of May 2013. The mixed layer heat budget analysis during the spring transition months proved that the intense warming has been mainly supported by the net heat flux, not by other factors like advection and entrainment. The inter-annual variability analysis of the net heat flux and its components, averaged over a box region of the SEAS, showed a substantial latent heat flux release and a reduction in net shortwave radiation in 2013. Both factors contributed to the negative net heat flux. Strong breaks in the warming were also observed in May due to the entrainment of cold sub-surface waters. These events are associated with the cyclonic eddy persisting over the SEAS during the same time. The entrainment term, favoring the cooling, was stronger in 2015 than that in 2013 and 2014. The surface temperatures measured in 2013 were lower than those in 2014 and 2015 despite the presence of a thick barrier layer. The substantial decrease in net heat flux along with entrainment cooling has been identified as causes for this behavior.

Interannual variability of the annual cycle of the surface temperature in the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis over the Northern Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesouro, M.; Gimeno, L.; Añel, J. A.; de La Torre, L.; Nieto, R.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The seasonal cycle of the surface temperature in the Northern Atlantic was investigated with the aim of studying interannual variability. To know how seasonal cycle is influenced by main climate modes could be a powerful tool to improve our seasonal prediction abilities. Data consist of daily temperatures at 2 metres taken from the Climate Research Unit (University of East Anglic_UK) (www.cru.uea.ac.uk) corresponding to the region from 90 W to 90 E longitude and from 88.5 N to 21.9 N latitude and for the last 44 years. Daily data were adjusted to the following expression for each year: y=a+b*sin(((2*PI)/d)x+c) The amplitude of the wave and the first inflexion point were used as indicators of the seasonal cycle. Results show a negative correlation between the NAO index and the amplitude over Northern Europe and over Mexico and a positive correlation over Northern United States and Canada. They also show a negative correlation between the NAO index and the first inflexion point over Northern Europe.

Modeling Episodic Surface Runoff in an Arid Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waichler, S. R.; Wigmosta, M. S.

2003-12-01

Methods were developed for estimating episodic surface runoff in arid eastern Washington, USA. Small (1--10 km2) catchments in this region with mean annual precipitation around 180 mm produce runoff in about half the years, and such events usually occur during winter when a widespread cold snap and possible snow accumulation is followed by warmer temperatures and rainfall. Existence of frozen soil appears to be a key factor, and a moving average of air temperature is an effective predictor of soil temperature. The watershed model DHSVM simulates snow accumulation and ablation reasonably well at a monitoring location, but the same model applied in distributed mode across a 850 km2 basin overpredicts runoff. Inadequate definition of local meteorology appears to limit the accuracy of runoff predictions. However, runoff estimates of sufficient quality to support modeling of long-term groundwater recharge and sediment transport may be found in focusing on recurrence intervals and volumes rather than hydrographs. Usefulness of upland watershed modeling to environmental management of the Hanford Site and an adjacent military reservation will likely improve through sensitivity analysis of basic assumptions about upland water balance.

Links between type E botulism outbreaks, lake levels, and surface water temperatures in Lake Michigan, 1963-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafrancois, Brenda Moraska; Riley, Stephen C.; Blehert, David S.; Ballmann, Anne E.

2011-01-01

Relationships between large-scale environmental factors and the incidence of type E avian botulism outbreaks in Lake Michigan were examined from 1963 to 2008. Avian botulism outbreaks most frequently occurred in years with low mean annual water levels, and lake levels were significantly lower in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Mean surface water temperatures in northern Lake Michigan during the period when type E outbreaks tend to occur (July through September) were significantly higher in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Trends in fish populations did not strongly correlate with botulism outbreaks, although botulism outbreaks in the 1960s coincided with high alewife abundance, and recent botulism outbreaks coincided with rapidly increasing round goby abundance. Botulism outbreaks occurred cyclically, and the frequency of outbreaks did not increase over the period of record. Climate change scenarios for the Great Lakes predict lower water levels and warmer water temperatures. As a consequence, the frequency and magnitude of type E botulism outbreaks in the Great Lakes may increase.

West Flank Coso, CA FORGE 3D temperature model

DOE Data Explorer

Doug Blankenship

2016-03-01

x,y,z data of the 3D temperature model for the West Flank Coso FORGE site. Model grid spacing is 250m. The temperature model for the Coso geothermal field used over 100 geothermal production sized wells and intermediate-depth temperature holes. At the near surface of this model, two boundary temperatures were assumed: (1) areas with surface manifestations, including fumaroles along the northeast striking normal faults and northwest striking dextral faults with the hydrothermal field, a temperature of ~104˚C was applied to datum at +1066 meters above sea level elevation, and (2) a near-surface temperature at about 10 meters depth, of 20˚C was applied below the diurnal and annual conductive temperature perturbations. These assumptions were based on heat flow studies conducted at the CVF and for the Mojave Desert. On the edges of the hydrothermal system, a 73˚C/km (4˚F/100’) temperature gradient contour was established using conductive gradient data from shallow and intermediate-depth temperature holes. This contour was continued to all elevation datums between the 20˚C surface and -1520 meters below mean sea level. Because the West Flank is outside of the geothermal field footprint, during Phase 1, the three wells inside the FORGE site were incorporated into the preexisting temperature model. To ensure a complete model was built based on all the available data sets, measured bottom-hole temperature gradients in certain wells were downward extrapolated to the next deepest elevation datum (or a maximum of about 25% of the well depth where conductive gradients are evident in the lower portions of the wells). After assuring that the margins of the geothermal field were going to be adequately modelled, the data was contoured using the Kriging method algorithm. Although the extrapolated temperatures and boundary conditions are not rigorous, the calculated temperatures are anticipated to be within ~6˚C (20˚F), or one contour interval, of the observed data within the Coso geothermal field. Based on a lack of temperature data west of 74-2TCH, the edges of this model still seem to have an effect on West Flank modeled temperatures.

Differentiating surface water change from seasonal and inter-annual variability in North Western Canada using multi-decadal time series of data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, M.; Loboda, T. V.

2017-12-01

Over the last several decades, warming in the Arctic has outpaced the already impressiveincreases in global mean temperatures. The impact of these increases in temperature has beenobserved in a multitude of ecological changes in North American tundra including changes invegetative cover, depth of active layer, and surface water extent. The low topographic relief andcontinuous permafrost create an ideal environment for the formation of small water bodies—adefinitive feature of tundra surface. In this study, water bodies in Nunavut territory in northernCanada were mapped using a long-term record of remotely sensed observations at 30 m spatialresolution from the Landsat suite of instruments. The temporal trajectories of water extent between1985 and 2015 were assessed. Over 675,000 water bodies have been identified over the 31-yearstudy period with over 168,000 showing a significant (p < 0.05) trend in surface area. Approximately55% of water bodies with a significant trend were increasing in size while the remaining 45% weredecreasing in size. The overall net trend for water bodies with a significant trend is 0.009 ha year 1per water body.

Water Resources Data for Illinois - Water Year 2005 (Includes Historical Data)

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaTour, J.K.; Weldon, E.A.; Dupre, D.H.; Halfar, T.M.

2006-01-01

This annual Water-Data Report for Illinois contains current water year (Oct. 1, 2004, to Sept. 30, 2005) and historical data of discharge, stage, water quality and biology of streams; stage of lakes and reservoirs; levels and quality of ground water; and records of precipitation, air temperature, dew point, solar radiation, and wind speed. The current year's (2005) data provided in this report include (1) discharge for 182 surface-water gaging stations and for 9 crest-stage partial-record stations; (2) stage for 33 surface-water gaging stations; (3) water-quality records for 10 surface-water stations; (4) sediment-discharge records for 14 surface-water stations; (5) water-level records for 98 ground-water wells; (6) water-quality records for 17 ground-water wells; (7) precipitation records for 48 rain gages; (8) records of air temperature, dew point, solar radiation and wind speed for 1 meteorological station; and (9) biological records for 6 sample sites. Also included are miscellaneous data collected at various sites not in the systematic data-collection network. Data were collected and compiled as a part of the National Water Information System (NWIS) maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies.

ALMA Thermal Mapping of Ceres – Search for Subsurface Water Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moullet, Arielle; Li, Jian-Yang; Titus, Timothy N.; Sykes, Mark V.; Hsieh, Henry H.

2018-06-01

Spectroscopic observations of the surface of Ceres by Dawn have demonstrated that hydrated minerals are ubiquitous, but only few smaller sites are enriched with water ice. This is somewhat surprising as Ceres is believed to host a large amount a water in its interior.The possibility of inhomogeneous subsurface water distribution can be investigated by tracing thermal inertia distribution. To that effect, we mapped the temperature of Ceres using 1.3mm maps of the whole surface obtained with the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) over three different epochs during one Ceres’ year. Assessing the thermal conditions at the depths probed by sub millimeter observations (a few cm below the surface, within the annual thermal skin depth) is critical to constrain the effective thermal inertia, and hence the status of subsurface water ice. We will present preliminary results in terms of temperature features and the corresponding thermal inertia derived based on comparisons from the KRC thermal model which has been extensively used for Mars. Initial analysis is consistent with the presence of near-surface high thermal inertia layer, presumably water ice, in the north polar region.This work is supported by the NASA Solar System Observations Program NNX15AE02G.

Land-Sea relationships of climate-related records: example of the Holocene in the eastern Canadian Arctic and Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vernal, Anne; Fréchette, Bianca; Hillaire-Marcel, Claude

2017-04-01

Anne de Vernal, Bianca Fréchette, Claude Hillaire-Marcel Important progresses have been made to reconstruct climate and ocean changes through time. However, there is often a hiatus between the land-based climate reconstructions and paleoceanographical data. The reconstructed parameters are not the same (e.g. surface air temperature vs. sea-surface temperature). Moreover, the spatial (local to regional) and temporal dimensions (seasonal, annual to multi-decadal) of proxy-data are often inconsistent, thus preventing direct correlation of time series and often leading to uncertainties in multi-site, multi-proxy compilations. Here, we address the issue of land-sea relationships in the eastern Canadian Arctic-Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea-western Greenland based on the examination of different climate-related information from marine cores (dinocysts) collected nearshore vs. offshore, ice cores (isotopes), fjord and lake data (pollen). The combined information tends to indicate that "climate" changes are not easily neither adequately captured by temperature and temperature shifts. However, the seasonal contrast of temperatures seems to be a key parameter. Whereas it is often attenuated offshore, it is generally easy to reconstruct nearshore, where water stratification is usually stronger. The confrontation of data also shows a relationship between ice core data and sea-ice cover and/or sea-surface salinity, suggesting that air-sea exchanges in basins surrounding ice sheets play a significant role with respect to their isotopic composition. On the whole, combined onshore-offshore data consistently suggest a two-step shift towards optimal summer and winter conditions the circum Baffin Bay and northern Labrador Sea at 7.5 and 6 ka BP. These delayed optimal conditions seem to result from ice-meltwater discharges maintaining low salinity conditions in marine surface waters and thus a strong seasonality.

The bivalve Glycymeris longior as an environmental archive for the Mar Argentino, southern South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Socorro Doldan, María; Morsan, Enrique Mario; Giménez, Lucas; Zaidman, Paula Cecilia

2017-04-01

Southern Hemisphere lacks of suitable high-resolution long datasets for the marine environment. This is translated in poor understanding of climate dynamics and processes at regional and continental-scale. We assessed the potential of Glycymeris longior as an environmental indicator for the mid-latitudes of South Atlantic by applying sclerochronological techniques on sample sets collected from San Matías Gulf, Mar Argentino, southern South Atlantic. We present a reconstruction of marine environmental variability of SMG for the period 1890-2016, covering 125 years. The reconstruction is based on the growth increment series for the first absolutely-dated annually-resolved multi-decadal G. longior bivalve on Sothern Atlantic. Shells were collected in 1918, 1933, 1945, 1983, 1989, 2009, 2011, 2015 and 2016. Sample depth varies between collection years. Age of the individuals was estimated from the hinge region of the shell. G. longior forms an annual narrow growth line. Maximal longevity was 40 years old. A strong common environmental signal is apparent in the increment widths. Correlations between the growth increment indices and regional temperature series (sea surface temperatures, continental temperatures) and other proxies were made. Preliminary results indicate that G.longior sclerochronologies, combined with low-frequency proxies can facilitate reconstructions of oceanographic variability. We discuss multi-decadal climate variability. Given the ability to generate annually-resolved chronologies G. longior is likely to be used as a climate recorder in southern South America. Hence, G. longior shells from Pleistocene marine deposits from Patagonia, Argentina, have a considerable potential to contain information of past climate for mid-latitudes of South Atlantic.

Reconstructing thermal properties of firn at Summit, Greenland from a temperature profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giese, A. L.; Hawley, R. L.

2013-12-01

Thermodynamic properties of firn are important factors when considering energy balance and temperature-dependent physical processes in the near-surface of glaciers. Of particular interest is thermal diffusivity, which can take a range of values and which governs both the temperature gradient and its evolution through time. Given that temperature is a well-established driver of firn densification, a better understanding of heat transfer will permit greater accuracy in the compaction models essential for interpreting inter-annual and seasonal ice surface elevation changes detected by airborne and satellite altimetry. Due to its dependence on microstructure, diffusivity can vary significantly by location. Rather than directly measuring diffusivity or one of its proxies (e.g. density, hardness, shear strength), this study inverts the heat equation to reconstruct diffusivity values. This is a less logistically-intensive approach which circumvents many of the challenges associated with imperfect proxies and snow metamorphism during measurement. Hourly records (May 2004 - July 2008) from 8 thermistors placed in the top 10 m at Summit, Greenland provide temperature values for Summit's firn, which is broadly representative of firn across the ice sheet's dry snow zone. In this study, we use both physical analysis and a finite-difference numerical model to determine a diffusivity magnitude and gradient; we find that diffusivity of Summit firn falls in the lower end of the range expected from local density and temperature conditions alone (i.e. 15 - 36 m^2/a for firn at -30C). Further, we assess the utility of our modeling approach, explore the validity of assuming bulk conductive heat transfer when modeling temperature changes in non-homogeneous firn, and investigate the implications of a low-end diffusivity value for surface compaction modeling in Greenland.

Estimation of base temperatures for nine weed species.

PubMed

Steinmaus, S J; Prather, T S; Holt, J S

2000-02-01

Experiments were conducted to test several methods for estimating low temperature thresholds for seed germination. Temperature responses of nine weeds common in annual agroecosystems were assessed in temperature gradient experiments. Species included summer annuals (Amaranthus albus, A. palmeri, Digitaria sanguinalis, Echinochloa crus-galli, Portulaca oleracea, and Setaria glauca), winter annuals (Hirschfeldia incana and Sonchus oleraceus), and Conyza canadensis, which is classified as a summer or winter annual. The temperature below which development ceases (Tbase) was estimated as the x-intercept of four conventional germination rate indices regressed on temperature, by repeated probit analysis, and by a mathematical approach. An overall Tbase estimate for each species was the average across indices weighted by the reciprocal of the variance associated with the estimate. Germination rates increased linearly with temperature between 15 degrees C and 30 degrees C for all species. Consistent estimates of Tbase were obtained for most species using several indices. The most statistically robust and biologically relevant method was the reciprocal time to median germination, which can also be used to estimate other biologically meaningful parameters. The mean Tbase for summer annuals (13.8 degrees C) was higher than that for winter annuals (8.3 degrees C). The two germination response characteristics, Tbase and slope (rate), influence a species' germination behaviour in the field since the germination inhibiting effects of a high Tbase may be offset by the germination promoting effects of a rapid germination response to temperature. Estimates of Tbase may be incorporated into predictive thermal time models to assist weed control practitioners in making management decisions.

Determination of annual and seasonal daytime and nighttime trends of MODIS LST over Greece - climate change implications.

PubMed

Eleftheriou, Dimitrios; Kiachidis, Kyriakos; Kalmintzis, Georgios; Kalea, Argiro; Bantasis, Christos; Koumadoraki, Paraskevi; Spathara, Maria Eleni; Tsolaki, Angeliki; Tzampazidou, Maria Irini; Gemitzi, Alexandra

2018-03-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging research topics during the last few decades, as temperature rise has already posed a significant impact on the earth's functions thus affecting all life of the planet. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is identified as a key variable in environmental and climate studies. The present study investigates the distribution of daytime and nighttime LST trends over Greece, a country in the Mediterranean area which is identified as one of the main "hot-spots" of climate change projections. Remotely sensed LST data were obtained from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor in the form of 8-day composites of day and night values at a resolution of 1km for a 17-year period, i.e. from 2000 to 2017. Spatial aggregates of 10km×10km were computed and the annual and seasonal temporal trends were determined for each one of those sub-areas. Results showed that annual trends of daily LST in the majority of areas demonstrated decrease ranging from -1∗10 -2 °C to -1.3∗10 -3 °C, with some sporadic parts showing a slight increase. A totally different outcome is observed in the fate of night LST, with all areas over Greece demonstrating increasing annual trends ranging from 4.6∗10 -5 °C to 3.1∗10 -3 °C, with highest values in the South-East parts of the country. Seasonal trends in day and night LST showed the same pattern, i.e., a general decrease in the day LST and a definite increase in night. An interesting finding is the increase in winter LST trends observed both for day and night LST, indicating that the absolute minimum annual LST observed during winter in Greece increases. Our results also indicate that the annual diurnal LST range is decreasing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improvement of Mars Surface Snow Albedo Modeling in LMD Mars GCM With SNICAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, D.; Flanner, M. G.; Millour, E.

2018-03-01

The current version of Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Mars GCM (original-MGCM) uses annually repeating (prescribed) CO2 snow albedo values based on the Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations. We integrate the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model with MGCM (SNICAR-MGCM) to prognostically determine H2O and CO2 snow albedos interactively in the model. Using the new diagnostic capabilities of this model, we find that cryospheric surfaces (with dust) increase the global surface albedo of Mars by 0.022. Over snow-covered regions, SNICAR-MGCM simulates mean albedo that is higher by about 0.034 than prescribed values in the original-MGCM. Globally, shortwave flux into the surface decreases by 1.26 W/m2, and net CO2 snow deposition increases by about 4% with SNICAR-MGCM over one Martian annual cycle as compared to the original-MGCM simulations. SNICAR integration reduces the mean global surface temperature and the surface pressure of Mars by about 0.87% and 2.5%, respectively. Changes in albedo also show a similar distribution to dust deposition over the globe. The SNICAR-MGCM model generates albedos with higher sensitivity to surface dust content as compared to original-MGCM. For snow-covered regions, we improve the correlation between albedo and optical depth of dust from -0.91 to -0.97 with SNICAR-MGCM as compared to the original-MGCM. Dust substantially darkens Mars's cryosphere, thereby reducing its impact on the global shortwave energy budget by more than half, relative to the impact of pure snow.

Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010.

PubMed

Mauck, Robert A; Dearborn, Donald C; Huntington, Charles E

2018-04-01

The salient feature of anthropogenic climate change over the last century has been the rise in global mean temperature. However, global mean temperature is not used as an explanatory variable in studies of population-level response to climate change, perhaps because the signal-to-noise ratio of this gross measure makes its effect difficult to detect in any but the longest of datasets. Using a population of Leach's storm-petrels breeding in the Bay of Fundy, we tested whether local, regional, or global temperature measures are the best index of reproductive success in the face of climate change in species that travel widely between and within seasons. With a 56-year dataset, we found that annual global mean temperature (AGMT) was the single most important predictor of hatching success, more so than regional sea surface temperatures (breeding season or winter) and local air temperatures at the nesting colony. Storm-petrel reproductive success showed a quadratic response to rising temperatures, in that hatching success increased up to some critical temperature, and then declined when AGMT exceeded that temperature. The year at which AGMT began to consistently exceed that critical temperature was 1988. Importantly, in this population of known-age individuals, the impact of changing climate was greatest on inexperienced breeders: reproductive success of inexperienced birds increased more rapidly as temperatures rose and declined more rapidly after the tipping point than did reproductive success of experienced individuals. The generality of our finding that AGMT is the best predictor of reproductive success in this system may hinge on two things. First, an integrative global measure may be best for species in which individuals move across an enormous spatial range, especially within seasons. Second, the length of our dataset and our capacity to account for individual- and age-based variation in reproductive success increase our ability to detect a noisy signal. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Keegan, Kaitlin M; Albert, Mary R; McConnell, Joseph R; Baker, Ian

2014-06-03

In July 2012, over 97% of the Greenland Ice Sheet experienced surface melt, the first widespread melt during the era of satellite remote sensing. Analysis of six Greenland shallow firn cores from the dry snow region confirms that the most recent prior widespread melt occurred in 1889. A firn core from the center of the ice sheet demonstrated that exceptionally warm temperatures combined with black carbon sediments from Northern Hemisphere forest fires reduced albedo below a critical threshold in the dry snow region, and caused the melting events in both 1889 and 2012. We use these data to project the frequency of widespread melt into the year 2100. Since Arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, our results suggest that widespread melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century. These events are likely to alter the surface mass balance of the ice sheet, leaving the surface susceptible to further melting.

Deformation and fracture of aluminum-lithium alloys: The effect of dissolved hydrogen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rivet, F. C.; Swanson, R. E.

1990-01-01

The effects of dissolved hydrogen on the mechanical properties of 2090 and 2219 alloys are studied. The work done during this semi-annual period consists of the hydrogen charging study and some preliminary mechanical tests. Prior to SIMS analysis, several potentiostatic and galvanostatic experiments were performed for various times (going from 10 minutes to several hours) in the cathodic zone, and for the two aqueous solutions: 0.04N of HCl and 0.1N NaOH both combined with a small amount of As2O3. A study of the surface damage was conducted in parallel with the charging experiments. Those tests were performed to choose the best charging conditions without surface damage. Disk rupture tests and tensile tests are part of the study designed to investigate the effect of temperature, surface roughness, strain rate, and environment on the fracture behavior. The importance of the roughness and environment were shown using the disk rupture test as well as the importance of the strain rate under hydrogen environment. The tensile tests, without hydrogen effects, have not shown significant differences between low and room temperature.

[Correlation analysis on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of different vegetations and climatic factors in Southwest China].

PubMed

Zhang, Yuan-Dong; Zhang, Xiao-He; Liu, Shi-Rong

2011-02-01

Based on the 1982-2006 NDVI remote sensing data and meteorological data of Southwest China, and by using GIS technology, this paper interpolated and extracted the mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and drought index in the region, and analyzed the correlations of the annual variation of NDVI in different vegetation types (marsh, shrub, bush, grassland, meadow, coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, alpine vegetation, and cultural vegetation) with corresponding climatic factors. In 1982-2006, the NDVI, mean annual temperature, and annual precipitation had an overall increasing trend, and the drought index decreased. Particularly, the upward trend of mean annual temperature was statistically significant. Among the nine vegetation types, the NDVI of bush and mash decreased, and the downward trend was significant for bush. The NDVI of the other seven vegetation types increased, and the upward trend was significant for coniferous forest, meadow, and alpine vegetation, and extremely significant for shrub. The mean annual temperature in the areas with all the nine vegetation types increased significantly, while the annual precipitation had no significant change. The drought index in the areas with marsh, bush, and cultural vegetation presented an increasing trend, that in the areas with meadow and alpine vegetation decreased significantly, and this index in the areas with other four vegetation types had an unobvious decreasing trend. The NDVI of shrub and coniferous forest had a significantly positive correlation with mean annual temperature, and that of shrub and meadow had significantly negative correlation with drought index. Under the conditions of the other two climatic factors unchanged, the NDVI of coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, and alpine vegetation showed the strongest correlation with mean annual temperature, that of grass showed the strongest correlation with annual precipitation, and the NDVI of mash, shrub, grass, meadow, and cultural vegetation showed the strongest correlation with drought index. There existed definite correlations among the climatic factors. If the correlations among the climatic factors were ignored, the significant level of the correlations between NDVI and climatic factors would be somewhat reduced.

Arctic Climate and Terrestrial Vegetation Responses During the Middle to Late Eocene and Early Oligocene: Colder Winters Preceded Cool-Down.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenwood, D. R.; Eldrett, J.

2006-12-01

The late Eocene to early Oligocene is recognized as an interval of substantial change in the global climate, with isotopic proxies of climate indicating a significant drop in sea surface temperatures. Other studies have shown, however that at middle latitudes that terrestrial mean annual temperature did not change significantly over this interval, and that the major change was likely a shift towards a greater range of seasonal temperatures; colder winters and warmer summers. Previous analyses of high latitude (Arctic) middle Eocene climate using both leaf physiognomic analysis and qualitative analysis of identified nearest living relatives of terrestrial floras indicated upper microthermal environments (mean annual temp. or MAT ca 10°C but perhaps as high as 15°C, coldest month mean temp. or CMMT ca 0°C) for Axel Heiberg Island in the Arctic Archipelago, but did not address precipitation nor provide data on the Eocene-Oligocene transition in the Arctic. Presented here are new estimates of temperature and precipitation (annual and season amounts) for the Arctic based on NLR analysis of terrestrial plant palynomorphs (spores and pollen) from the ODP 913B and 985 cores from near Greenland. The record of climate for the Greenland cores show a similar climate in the middle Eocene to that previously estimated for Axel Heiberg Island further to the west, with MAT 10- 15°C but with CMMT >5°C. Precipitation was high (mean annual precip. or MAP >180 cm/yr), although with large uncertainties attached to the estimate. The climate proxy record for the late Eocene to early Oligocene shows a lack of change in MAT and MAP over the time interval. Consistent with other published records at middle latitudes, however, winter temperatures (as CMMT) show greater variability leading up to the E-O boundary, and consistently cooler values in the early Oligocene (CMMT <5°C) than recorded for most of the middle to late Eocene record (CMMT >5°C). Plant groups sensitive to freezing such as palms and the floating water fern Azolla were present in the warm parts of the record, but are absent from the latest Eocene and early Oligocene record. These data provide further evidence that the primary change in the global climate system in the E-O transition was a shift towards more extreme seasonal temperature ranges, rather than a drop in the mean temperature.

Valley floor climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, Antarctica, 1986-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, P.T.; McKay, C.P.; Clow, G.D.; Dana, G.L.; Fountain, A.G.; Nylen, T.; Lyons, W.B.

2002-01-01

Climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, East Antarctica are presented from a network of seven valley floor automatic meteorological stations during the period 1986 to 2000. Mean annual temperatures ranged from -14.8??C to -30.0??C, depending on the site and period of measurement. Mean annual relative humidity is generally highest near the coast. Mean annual wind speed increases with proximity to the polar plateau. Site-to-site variation in mean annual solar flux and PAR is due to exposure of each station and changes over time are likely related to changes in cloudiness. During the nonsummer months, strong katabatic winds are frequent at some sites and infrequent at others, creating large variation in mean annual temperature owing to the warming effect of the winds. Katabatic wind exposure appears to be controlled to a large degree by the presence of colder air in the region that collects at low points and keeps the warm less dense katabatic flow from the ground. The strong influence of katabatic winds makes prediction of relative mean annual temperature based on geographical position (elevation and distance from the coast) alone, not possible. During the summer months, onshore winds dominate and warm as they progress through the valleys creating a strong linear relationship (r2 = 0.992) of increasing potential temperature with distance from the coast (0.09??C km-1). In contrast to mean annual temperature, summer temperature lends itself quite well to model predictions, and is used to construct a statistical model for predicting summer dry valley temperatures at unmonitored sites. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

Cloud-radiative effects on implied oceanic energy transport as simulated by atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gleckler, P. J.; Randall, D. A.; Boer, G.; Colman, R.; Dix, M.; Galin, V.; Helfand, M.; Kiehl, J.; Kitoh, A.; Lau, W.

1995-01-01

This paper summarizes the ocean surface net energy flux simulated by fifteen atmospheric general circulation models constrained by realistically-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. In general, the simulated energy fluxes are within the very large observational uncertainties. However, the annual mean oceanic meridional heat transport that would be required to balance the simulated surface fluxes is shown to be critically sensitive to the radiative effects of clouds, to the extent that even the sign of the Southern Hemisphere ocean heat transport can be affected by the errors in simulated cloud-radiation interactions. It is suggested that improved treatment of cloud radiative effects should help in the development of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models.

Potential environmental influences on variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism among Arizona populations of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amarello, Melissa; Nowak, Erica M.; Taylor, Emily N.; Schuett, Gordon W.; Repp, Roger A.; Rosen, Philip C.; Hardy, David L.

2010-01-01

Differences in resource availability and quality along environmental gradients are important influences contributing to intraspecific variation in body size, which influences numerous life-history traits. Here, we examined variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in relation to temperature, seasonality, and precipitation among 10 populations located throughout Arizona of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox). Specifically, in our analyses we addressed the following questions: (i) Are adult males larger in cooler, wetter areas? (ii) Does female body size respond differently to environmental variation? (iii) Is seasonality a better predictor of body size variation? (iv) Is SSD positively correlated with increased resources? We demonstrate that male and female C. atrox are larger in body size in cooler (i.e., lower average annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperature) and wetter areas (i.e., higher average annual precipitation, more variable precipitation, and available surface water). Although SSD in C. atrox appeared to be more pronounced in cooler, wetter areas, this relationship did not achieve statistical significance.

Rapid regional surface uplift of the northern Altiplano plateau revealed by multiproxy paleoclimate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, Nandini; Garzione, Carmala N.; Jaramillo, Carlos; Shanahan, Timothy; Carlotto, Victor; Pullen, Alex; Moreno, Federico; Anderson, Veronica; Moreno, Enrique; Eiler, John

2016-08-01

The central Altiplano is inferred to have experienced ∼ 2.5 ± 1km surface uplift between ∼10 and 6 Ma, while the southern Altiplano experienced a similar magnitude of surface uplift that began earlier, between ∼16 and 9 Ma. To properly constrain the along strike timing of the Altiplano plateau surface uplift, it is necessary to know how and when the northernmost part of the Altiplano plateau evolved. We reconstruct the paleoclimate and infer the corresponding paleoelevation from the Miocene-Pliocene deposits of the Descanso-Yauri basin (14-15°S) in the northernmost part of the Altiplano plateau using 4 different proxies, including carbonate clumped isotope composition (i.e., Δ47 values), carbonate δ18Oc, leaf wax δDwax and pollen assemblages from paleosol, lacustrine and palustrine carbonates and organic-rich sediments. The isotopic signatures reflect past climate conditions of mean annual air temperature (Δ47) and meteoric water isotope values (δ18Oc, δDwax). Our results show that the northernmost plateau remained at low elevation (0.9 ± 0.8 to 2.1 ± 0.9km) until late Miocene time (∼9 Ma) characterized by ∼15 °C warmer than modern temperature (mean annual air temperature of 23 ± 4 °C, 2σ), low elevation vegetation and precipitation signature with reconstructed □ δ18Omw (VSMOW) of - 8.3 ± 2.0 ‰ (2 σ) from carbonate (δ18Oc) and - 8.6 ± 1.8 ‰ (2 σ) from leaf wax (δDwax). Modern elevations of 4 km were not reached until 5.4 ± 1.0Ma, as indicated by a negative shift in δDwax (VSMOW) from - 143.4 ± 12.8 ‰ (2 σ) to - 209.2 ± 21.1 ‰ (2 σ) between 9.1 ± 0.7 and 5.4 ± 1.0Ma. The timing of surface uplift of the northernmost Altiplano is consistent with the evidence for late Miocene surface uplift of the central Altiplano (16-19°S) between 10 and 6 Ma, and indicates that regional scale uplift in the northern-central plateau significantly postdates the onset of surface uplift in the southern Altiplano (19-22°S) between ∼16 and 9 Ma. These results are consistent with piecemeal removal of the lower dense lithosphere, combined with possible lower/middle crustal flow from south to north in the plateau acting as the main mechanisms for the formation of the Altiplano plateau.

[Periodic fluctuation features of air temperature, precipitation, and aboveground net primary production of alpine meadow ecosystem on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau].

PubMed

Zhang, Fa-wei; Li, Hong-qin; Li, Ying-nian; Li, Yi-kang; Lin, Li

2009-03-01

With Mexican Hat function as mother function, a wavelet analysis was conducted on the periodic fluctuation features of air temperature, precipitation, and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in the Alpine Meadow Ecosystem Research Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences from 1980 to 2007. The results showed that there was a main period of 13 years for the annual fluctuations of air temperature, precipitation, and ANPP. A secondary period of 2 years for the annual fluctuations of air temperature and ANPP had lesser influence, whereas that of 4 years for the annual fluctuation of precipitation had greater effect. Lagged correlation analysis indicated that the annual fluctuation of ANNP was mainly controlled by the air temperature in a 20 years scale and had a weak 5-9 years lag effect, but there was a less correlation between ANPP and precipitation.

The Role of Atmospheric Deposition on the Input of Trace Elements to the Surface Ocean: the Bermuda Wet and Dry Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Church, T. M.; Sedwick, P. N.; Sholkovitz, E. R.

2011-12-01

Global surface temperature variations and changes result from intricate interplay of phenomena varying on scales ranging from fraction of seconds (turbulence) to thousands of years (e.g. glaciations). To complicate these issues further, the contribution of the anthropogenic forcing on the observed changes in surface temperatures varies over time and is spatially non-uniform. While evaluating all individual bands of this broad spectrum is virtually impossible, the availability of global daily datasets in the last few decades from reanalyses and Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations allows estimating the contribution of phenomena varying on synoptic-to-interannual timescales. Previous studies using GCM simulations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (IPCC AR4) have documented a consistent poleward shift in the storm tracks related to changes in baroclinicity resulting from global warming. However, our recent research (Cannon et al. 2013) indicated that the pattern of changes in the storm tracks observed in the last few decades is much more complex in both space and time. Complex terrain and the relative distribution of continents, oceans and icecaps play a significant role for changes in synoptic activity. Coupled modes such as the Northern and Southern annular modes, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and respective teleconnections with changes in baroclinicity have been identified as relevant dynamical forcings for variations of the midlatitude storm tracks, increasing the uncertainties in future projections. Moreover, global warming has modified the amplitude of the annual cycles of temperature, moisture and circulation throughout the planet and there is strong indication that these changes have mostly affected the tropics and Polar Regions. The present study advances these findings by investigating the 'blue-shift' in the underlying dynamics causing surface temperature anomalies and investigates relationships with low and upper level circulation. This research uses two sources of data: global daily Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (1979- 2010) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global daily simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two sets of simulations are investigated: the Historic and Pi-control runs. Here the term ';blue-shift' is used to indicate long-term increase in the amplitude of the synoptic scale relatively to the annual cycle amplitude derived from wavelet analysis as an analogy to the definition commonly used in physics (i.e., a shift toward shorter wavelengths of the spectral lines). It is shown that the blue-shift has been observed in midlatitudes of some continental areas of the Northern Hemisphere and North Pacific but in relatively higher latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical areas and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced opposite trend (red-shift). Moreover, the pattern of the blue and red-shifts exhibits seasonal changes. References: Cannon, F., L. M. V. Carvalho, C. Jones, B. Bookhagen, 2013: Multi-Annual Variations in Winter Westerly Disturbance Activity Affecting the Himalaya. Submitted to Climate Dynamics

Information transfer across the scales of climate variability: The effect of the 7-8 year cycle on the annual and interannual scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Kravtsov, Sergey; Tsonis, Anastasios

2016-04-01

Complexity of the climate system stems not only from the fact that it is variable over a huge range of spatial and temporal scales, but also from the nonlinear character of the climate system that leads to interactions of dynamics across scales. The dynamical processes on large time scales influence variability on shorter time scales. This nonlinear phenomenon of cross-scale causal interactions can be observed due to the recently introduced methodology [1] which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited bandwidth, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. An information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality [2] uncovers causal influence and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of air temperature records from various European locations, a quasioscillatory phenomenon with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as the factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [3]. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) [2] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [3] N. Jajcay, J. Hlinka, S. Kravtsov, A. A. Tsonis, M. Palus, Time-scales of the European surface air temperature variability: The role of the 7-8 year cycle. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067325

Gaseous oxidized mercury dry deposition measurements in the southwestern USA: a comparison between Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and the Four Corners area.

PubMed

Sather, Mark E; Mukerjee, Shaibal; Allen, Kara L; Smith, Luther; Mathew, Johnson; Jackson, Clarence; Callison, Ryan; Scrapper, Larry; Hathcoat, April; Adam, Jacque; Keese, Danielle; Ketcher, Philip; Brunette, Robert; Karlstrom, Jason; Van der Jagt, Gerard

2014-01-01

Gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) dry deposition measurements using aerodynamic surrogate surface passive samplers were collected in central and eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma, from September 2011 to September 2012. The purpose of this study was to provide an initial characterization of the magnitude and spatial extent of ambient GOM dry deposition in central and eastern Texas for a 12-month period which contained statistically average annual results for precipitation totals, temperature, and wind speed. The research objective was to investigate GOM dry deposition in areas of Texas impacted by emissions from coal-fired utility boilers and compare it with GOM dry deposition measurements previously observed in eastern Oklahoma and the Four Corners area. Annual GOM dry deposition rate estimates were relatively low in Texas, ranging from 0.1 to 0.3 ng/m(2)h at the four Texas monitoring sites, similar to the 0.2 ng/m(2)h annual GOM dry deposition rate estimate recorded at the eastern Oklahoma monitoring site. The Texas and eastern Oklahoma annual GOM dry deposition rate estimates were at least four times lower than the highest annual GOM dry deposition rate estimate previously measured in the more arid bordering western states of New Mexico and Colorado in the Four Corners area.

The effects of ground hydrology on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, S. H.; Curran, R. J.; Ohring, G.

1979-01-01

The effects of two different evaporation parameterizations on the climate sensitivity to solar constant variations are investigated by using a zonally averaged climate model. The model is based on a two-level quasi-geostrophic zonally averaged annual mean model. One of the evaporation parameterizations tested is a nonlinear formulation with the Bowen ratio determined by the predicted vertical temperature and humidity gradients near the earth's surface. The other is the linear formulation with the Bowen ratio essentially determined by the prescribed linear coefficient.

Annual Report of the Navy Aeroballistics Committee to the Naval Air Systems Command and the Naval Sea Systems Command for 1981.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-03-01

effects of plume impingement. 6 5. RECOMMENDATION: An investigation should be conducted to determine the benefits of using an ablator or insulation on the...ablator or insulator on the external surface has been considered and used in past missile designs. However, a comprehensive and organized investigation...speed, there is a potential for a greater payoff for the use of an external ablator or insulation to maintain the structure at a low temperature. 6

Statistical attribution analysis of the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River.

PubMed

Xiong, Lihua; Jiang, Cong; Du, Tao

2014-01-01

Time-varying moments models based on Pearson Type III and normal distributions respectively are built under the generalized additive model in location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to analyze the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The detection of nonstationarities in hydrological time series (annual runoff, precipitation and temperature) from 1960 to 2009 is carried out using a GAMLSS model, and then the covariate analysis for the annual runoff series is implemented with GAMLSS. Finally, the attribution of each covariate to the nonstationarity of annual runoff is analyzed quantitatively. The results demonstrate that (1) obvious change-points exist in all three hydrological series, (2) precipitation, temperature and irrigated area are all significant covariates of the annual runoff series, and (3) temperature increase plays the main role in leading to the reduction of the annual runoff series in the study basin, followed by the decrease of precipitation and the increase of irrigated area.

Analysis of temperature trends in Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosic, Ivana; Gavrilov, Milivoj; Unkašević, Miroslava; Marković, Slobodan; Petrović, Predrag

2017-04-01

An analysis of air temperature trends in Northern Serbia for the annual and seasonal time series is performed for two periods: 1949-2013 and 1979-2013. Three data sets of surface air temperatures: monthly mean temperatures, monthly maximum temperatures, and monthly minimum temperatures are analyzed at 9 stations that have altitudes varying between 75 m and 102 m. Monthly mean temperatures are obtained as the average of the daily mean temperatures, while monthly maximum (minimum) temperatures are the maximum (minimum) values of daily temperatures in corresponding month. Positive trends were found in 29 out of 30 time series, and the negative trend was found only in winter during the period 1979-2013. Applying the Mann-Kendall test, significant positive trends were found in 15 series; 7 in the period 1949-2013 and 8 in the period 1979-2013; and no significant trend was found in 15 series. Significant positive trends are dominated during the year, spring, and summer, where it was found in 14 out of 18 cases. Significant positive trends were found 7, 5, and 3 times in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. It was found that the positive temperature trends are dominant in Northern Serbia.

Radiative Forcing and Temperature Response to Changes in Urban Albedos and Associated CO2 Offsets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, Surabi; Akbari, Hashem; Mahanama, Sarith; Sednev, Igor; Levinson, Ronnen

2009-01-01

The two main forcings that can counteract to some extent the positive forcings from greenhouse gases from pre-industrial times to present-day are the aerosol and related aerosol-cloud forcings, and the radiative response to changes in surface albedo. Here, we quantify the change in radiative forcing and surface temperature that may be obtained by increasing the albedos of roofs and pavements in urban areas in temperate and tropical regions of the globe. Using the catchment land surface model (the land model coupled to the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model), we quantify the response of the total outgoing (outgoing shortwave+longwave) radiation to urban albedo changes. Globally, the total outgoing radiation increased by 0.5 W/square m and temperature decreased by -0.008 K for an average 0.003 increase in albedo. For the U.S. the total outgoing total radiation increased by 2.3 W/square meter, and temperature decreased by approximately 0.03 K for an average 0.01 increase in albedo. These values are for the boreal summer (Tune-July-August). Based on these forcings, the expected emitted CO2 offset for a plausible 0.25 and 0.15 increase in albedos of roofs and pavements, respectively, for all global urban areas, was found to be approximately 57 Gt CO2 . A more meaningful evaluation of the impacts of urban albedo increases on climate and the expected CO2 offsets would require simulations which better characterizes urban surfaces and represents the full annual cycle.

Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2011-01-01

A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, C. S.

1997-01-01

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

A Digital Map From External Forcing to the Final Surface Warming Pattern and its Seasonal Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, M.

2015-12-01

Historically, only the thermodynamic processes (e.g., water vapor, cloud, surface albedo, and atmospheric lapse rate) that directly influence the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy flux balance are considered in climate feedback analysis. One of my recent research areas is to develop a new framework for climate feedback analysis that explicitly takes into consideration not only the thermodynamic processes that the directly influence the TOA radiative energy flux balance but also the local dynamical (e.g., evaporation, surface sensible heat flux, vertical convections etc) and non-local dynamical (large-scale horizontal energy transport) processes in aiming to explain the warming asymmetry between high and low latitudes, between ocean and land, and between the surface and atmosphere. In the last 5-6 years, we have developed a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM) as a new framework for estimating climate feedback and sensitivity in coupled general circulation models with a full physical parameterization package. In the CFRAM, the isolation of partial temperature changes due to an external forcing alone or an individual feedback is achieved by solving the linearized infrared radiation transfer model subject to individual energy flux perturbations (external or due to feedbacks). The partial temperature changes are addable and their sum is equal to the (total) temperature change (in the linear sense). The CFRAM is used to isolate the partial temperature changes due to the external forcing, due to water vapor feedback, clouds, surface albedo, local vertical convection, and non-local atmospheric dynamical feedbacks, as well as oceanic heat storage. It has been shown that seasonal variations in the cloud feedback, surface albedo feedback, and ocean heat storage/dynamics feedback, directly caused by the strong annual cycle of insolation, contribute primarily to the large seasonal variation of polar warming. Furthermore, the CO2 forcing, and water vapor and atmospheric dynamics feedbacks add to the maximum polar warming in fall/winter.

Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

PubMed

Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

2015-07-01

Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days <27.5°C. For example, a day with a mean temperature of 25.0°C contributes 2.5 cold degree-days to the annual total. Generalized additive models were used to estimate the association between annual hot and cold degree-days and the ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global Surface Dust Distribution Changes on Mars (MY24-33)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piqueux, S.; Hayne, P. O.; Kleinboehl, A.; Edwards, C. S.; Elder, C. M.; Heavens, N. G.; Kass, D. M.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Shirley, J. H.; Smith, M. D.

2016-12-01

Telescopic and spacecraft observations document inter-annual and inter-seasonal changes of the Martian albedo that are interpreted to result from the redistribution of surface dust in response to atmospheric events such as global or regional dust storms, dust devil activity, or seasonal winds. Based on these observations and general circulation modeling, several authors have hypothesized that a necessary condition for global dust storm initiation and growth is the presence of strategically located surface dust reservoirs replenished during inter-storm periods. If this hypothesis is valid, the cyclical accumulation and removal of thermally thick (>50 μm) layers of dust at specific locations ought to produce a distinct temperature signature, since Martian dust exhibits extremely low thermal conductivity and thermal inertia values compared to sand, gravel, rocks, and bedrock. Characterizing dust movement using temperature data presents a major advantage over mapping relying solely on albedo changes: it yields dust layer thicknesses, whose spatial and temporal integration enables the derivation of surface dust fluxes. In this work, we use global (1° per pixel resolution) seasonal (10° Ls resolution, from MY24 to 33) maps of the Martian surface albedo, atmospheric dust opacity, and ground temperature (derived from TES, THEMIS, and MCS observations) to derive apparent variations of the thermal inertia, and thereby characterize surface changes consistent with the deposition or removal of dust. We show that changes in thermal inertia for some regions are consistent with dust accumulation; whereas others seem to lose dust. We compare these maps with published GCM dust lifting predictions, and with observations of past dust storm occurrence, thereby constraining the role of surface dust availability.

Response of glacier mass on recent temperature cooling in northeastern Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Láska, Kamil; Engel, Zbyněk; Nývlt, Daniel; Stachoň, Zdeněk; Lippl, Stefan; Braun, Matthias

2017-04-01

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) region has been often recognized as one of the most rapidly warming parts of our planet during the second half of the 20th century (Turner and others, 2014). However, recent study of Oliva and others (2016) has documented that significant warming trend was shifted to a prominent cooling trend during 2006-2015. The recent cooling is particularly pronounced in the northeastern part of the AP, with the largest temperature drops of 0.7-0.9 ˚ C between 1996-2005 and 2006-2015. Therefore, we aim to study response of small glaciers on James Ross Island, north-eastern part of the AP, that are considered to be sensitive to recent temperature fluctuations. We have studied annual changes of mass balance and equilibrium line altitude of Whisky Glacier, a cold-bases land-terminating valley glacier (˜2.4 km2), in the northern part of James Ross Island. The surface mass balance changes were estimated based on ablation stake measurements, carried out in late summer over the five years period (2009/10-2013/14). In addition, glacier surface velocity and area changes were determined for this period from aerial and satellite imageries based digital elevation models. Automatic weather stations in the northern part of James Ross Island reflect the recent cold period and indicate a prominent cooling by 1.2 ˚ C over the period 2006-2015. A response of glaciers on colder conditions can be observed throughout the area where negative mass changes turned to predominantly positive values after 2009. The total mass of Whisky Glacier has increased by 0.8 m w.e. in 2009/10-2013/14 and the annual mass changes were positive except for 2011 (-0.1 m w.e.). A comparison of annual mass balance changes with the data reported from glaciers on nearby Vega Island (Marinsek and Ermolin, 2015) indicates similar values of glacier mass changes in northeastern AP. Acknowledgments: This research was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project GC 16-14122J) and Czech Ministry of Education (LM2015078).

Forecasting Frost Damage: Follow the Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rempel, A. W.

2015-12-01

Frost damage takes place when the pressure exerted against pore walls exceeds the cohesive strength of water-infiltrated rock and causes cracks to extend. Elegant theoretical treatments supported by meticulous field and laboratory observations have combined to unravel the basic mechanical and thermodynamic controls in idealized systems. Frost damage is most vigorous when conditions are cold enough that the net pressure exerted against the pore walls can cause crack extension, yet warm enough to enable the flow that supplies further ice growth in the newly opened space. This insight is applied here to develop practical geomorphic process laws for the effects of frost damage at the larger scales that are relevant for describing the evolution of landscapes. To this end, a direct connection is made between the intensity of frost damage and the porosity increase that results from gradients in water flux under conditions that are cold enough for ice-rock interactions to propagate cracks. This implies that the annual temperature variation at the ground surface can be combined with considerations of heat and mass transport to derive rigorous forecasts of the potential for frost damage that are tied to the increases in water mass that accompany solidification in porous rock. As an example, the image shows the depth-integrated porosity change λ promoted by crack growth at temperatures colder than -ΔTc over an annual cycle for different choices of mean annual temperature MAT and surface amplitude A (assuming a thermal diffusivity of 1 mm2/s and a power-law relationship between permeability and undercooling with exponent α=4, such that a base value of 10-14m2 is reached at a reference undercooling of 0.1 ºC). The abrupt onset in cracking once MAT decreases below a threshold is produced by the requirement that undercooling surpass ΔTc in order to generate sufficient pressures to propagate cracks. The eventual reduction and gradual tail in λ at colder MAT is produced by the clogging of the permeable pathways needed to supply additional water to propmote crack growth.

N2O emissions from a nitrogen-enriched river

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, P.B.; Dennehy, K.F.

1999-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the South Platte River in Colorado were measured using closed chambers in the fall, winter, and summer of 1994- 1995. The South Platte River was enriched in inorganic N (9-800 ??M) derived from municipal wastewater effluent and groundwater return flows from irrigated agricultural fields. River water was as much as 2500% supersaturated with N2O, and median N2O emission rates from the river surface ranged from less than 90 to 32 600 ??g-N m-2 d-1. Seventy-nine percent of the variance in N2O emission rates was explained by concentrations of total inorganic N in river water and by water temperature. The estimated total annual N2O emissions from the South Platte River were 2 x 1013-6 x 1013 ??g-N yr-1. This amount of annual N2O emissions was similar to the estimated annual N2O emissions from all primary municipal wastewater treatment processes in the United States (1). Results from this study indicate that N-enriched rivers could be important anthropogenic sources of N2O to the atmosphere. However, N2O emission measurements from other N-enriched rivers are needed to better quantify this source.Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the South Platte River in Colorado were measured using closed chambers in the fall, winter, and summer of 1994-1995. The South Platte River was enriched in inorganic N (9-800 ??M) derived from municipal wastewater effluent and groundwater return flows from irrigated agricultural fields. River water was as much as 2500% supersaturated with N2O, and median N2O emission rates from the river surface ranged from less than 90 to 32 600 ??g-N m-2 d-1. Seventy-nine percent of the variance in N2O emission rates was explained by concentrations of total inorganic N in river water and by water temperature. The estimated total annual N2O emissions from the South Platte River were 2??1013-6??1013 ??g-N yr-1. This amount of annual N2O emissions was similar to the estimated annual N2O emissions from all primary municipal wastewater treatment processes in the United States. Results from this study indicate that N-enriched rivers could be important anthropogenic sources of N2O to the atmosphere. However, N2O emission measurements from other N-enriched rivers are needed to better quantify this source.

The comparative limnology of Lakes Nyos and Monoun, Cameroon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kling, George; Evans, William C; Tanyileke, Gregory

2015-01-01

Lakes Nyos and Monoun are known for the dangerous accumulation of CO2 dissolved in stagnant bottom water, but the shallow waters that conceal this hazard are dilute and undergo seasonal changes similar to other deep crater lakes in the tropics. Here we discuss these changes with reference to climatic and water-column data collected at both lakes during the years following the gas release disasters in the mid-1980s. The small annual range in mean daily air temperatures leads to an equally small annual range of surface water temperatures (ΔT ~6–7 °C), reducing deep convective mixing of the water column. Weak mixing aids the establishment of meromixis, a requisite condition for the gradual buildup of CO2 in bottom waters and perhaps the unusual condition that most explains the rarity of such lakes. Within the mixolimnion, a seasonal thermocline forms each spring and shallow diel thermoclines may be sufficiently strong to isolate surface water and allow primary production to reduce PCO2 below 300 μatm, inducing a net influx of CO2 from the atmosphere. Surface water O2 and pH typically reach maxima at this time, with occasional O2 oversaturation. Mixing to the chemocline occurs in both lakes during the winter dry season, primarily due to low humidity and cool night time air temperature. An additional period of variable mixing, occasionally reaching the chemocline in Lake Monoun, occurs during the summer monsoon season in response to increased frequency of major storms. The mixolimnion encompassed the upper ~40–50 m of Lake Nyos and upper ~15–20 m of Lake Monoun prior to the installation of degassing pipes in 2001 and 2003, respectively. Degassing caused chemoclines to deepen rapidly. Piping of anoxic, high-TDS bottom water to the lake surface has had a complex effect on the mixolimnion. Algal growth stimulated by increased nutrients (N and P) initially stimulated photosynthesis and raised surface water O2 in Lake Nyos, but O2 removal through oxidation of iron was also enhanced and appeared to dominate at Lake Monoun. Depth-integrated O2 contents decreased in both lakes as did water transparency. No dangerous instabilities in water-column structure were detected over the course of degassing. While Nyos-type lakes are extremely rare, other crater lakes can pose dangers from gas releases and monitoring is warranted.

Information transfer across the scales of climate data variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hartman, David; Hlinka, Jaroslav

2015-04-01

Multitude of scales characteristic of the climate system variability requires innovative approaches in analysis of instrumental time series. We present a methodology which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited band-with, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. In particular, an information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality is applied together with surrogate data testing methods [1]. The method [2] uncovers causal influence (in the Granger sense) and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of daily mean surface air temperature from various European locations an information transfer from larger to smaller scales has been observed as the influence of the phase of slow oscillatory phenomena with periods around 7-8 years on amplitudes of the variability characterized by smaller temporal scales from a few months to annual and quasi-biennial scales [3]. In sea surface temperature data from the tropical Pacific area an influence of quasi-oscillatory phenomena with periods around 4-6 years on the variability on and near the annual scale has been observed. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [2] M. Palus, Entropy 16(10), 5263-5289 (2014) [3] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 078702 (2014)

Determination of Interannual to Decadal Changes in Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Busalacchi, Antonioa J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the +/- 25% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to +/- 2 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. Although the overall ice mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations can be derived from time-series of ice surface elevations from satellite altimetry, satellite radar altimeters have been limited in spatial coverage and elevation accuracy. Nevertheless, new data analysis shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. In addition, observed seasonal and interannual variations in elevation demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. From 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86 deg latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets. During 3 to 5 years of ICESat-1 operation, an estimate of the overall ice sheet mass balance and sea level contribution will be obtained. The importance of continued ice monitoring after the first ICESat is illustrated by the variability in the area of Greenland surface melt observed over 17-years and its correlation with temperature. In addition, measurement of ice sheet changes, along with measurements of sea level change by a series of ocean altimeters, should enable direct detection of ice level and global sea level correlations.

Experimental Warming Aggravates Degradation-Induced Topsoil Drought in Alpine Meadows of The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, X.

2017-12-01

Climatic warming is presumed to cause topsoil drought by increasing evapotranspiration and water infiltration, and by progressively inducing land degradation in alpine meadows of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, how soil moisture and temperature patterns of degraded alpine meadows respond to climate warming remains unclear. A six-year continuous warming experiment was carried out in both degraded and undegraded alpine meadows in the source region of the Yangtze River. The goal was to identify the effects of climatic warming and land degradation on soil moisture (θ), soil surface temperature (Tsfc), and soil temperature (Ts). In the present study, land degradation significantly reduced θ by 4.5-6.1% at a depth of 0-100 cm (P < 0.001), and increased the annual mean Tsfc by 0.8°C. Warming with an infrared heater (radiation output of 150 W m-2) significantly increased the annual mean Tsfc by 2.5°C (P < 0.001) and significantly increased θ by 4.7% at a depth of 40-60 cm. Experimental warming in degraded land reversed the positive effects of the infrared heater and caused the yearly average θ to decrease significantly by 3.7-8.1% at a depth of 0-100 cm. Our research reveals that land degradation caused a significant water deficit near the soil surface. Experimental warming aggravated topsoil drought caused by land degradation, intensified the magnitude of degradation, and caused a positive feedback in the degraded alpine meadow ecosystem. Therefore, an immediate need exists to restore degraded alpine meadow grasslands in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in anticipation of a warmer future.

The clumped isotope geothermometer in soil and paleosol carbonate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quade, J.; Eiler, J.; Daëron, M.; Achyuthan, H.

2013-03-01

We studied both modern soils and buried paleosols in order to understand the relationship of temperature (T°C(47)) estimated from clumped isotope compositions (Δ47) of soil carbonates to actual surface and burial temperatures. Carbonates from modern soils with differing rainfall seasonality were sampled from Arizona, Nevada, Tibet, Pakistan, and India. T°C(47) obtained from these soils shows that soil carbonate forms in the warmest months of the year, in the late morning to afternoon, and probably in response to intense soil dewatering. T°C(47) obtained from modern soil carbonate ranges from 10.8 to 39.5 °C. On average, T°C(47) exceeds mean annual temperature by 10-15 °C due to summertime bias in soil carbonate formation, and to summertime ground heating by incident solar radiation. Secondary controls on T°C(47) are soil depth and shading. Site mean annual air temperature (MAAT) across a broad range (0-30 °C) of site temperatures is highly correlated with T°C(47) from soils, following the equation: MAAT(°C)=1.20(T°C(47)0)-21.72(r2=0.92) where T°C(47)0 is the effective air temperature at the site estimated from T°C(47). The effective air temperature represents the air temperature required to account for the T°C(47) at each site, after consideration of variations in T°C(47) with soil depth and ground heating. The highly correlated relationship in this equation should now permit mean annual temperature in the past to be reconstructed from T°C(47) in paleosol carbonate, assuming one is studying paleosols that formed in environments generally similar in seasonality and ground cover to our calibration sites. T°C(47)0 decreases systematically with elevation gain in the Himalaya, following the equation: elevation(m)=-229(T°C(47)0)+9300(r2=0.95) Assuming that temperature varied similarly with elevation in the past, this equation can be used to reconstruct paleoelevation from clumped isotope analysis of ancient soil carbonates. We also measured T°C(47) from long sequences of deeply buried (⩽5 km) paleosol carbonate in the Himalayan foreland in order to evaluate potential diagenetic resetting of clumped isotope composition. We found that paleosol carbonate faithfully records plausible soil T°C(47) down to 2.5-4 km burial depth, or ˜90-125 °C. Deeper than this and above this temperature, T°C(47) in paleosol carbonate is reset to temperatures >40 °C. We observe ˜40 °C as the upper limit for T°C(47) in modern soils from soil depths >25 cm, and therefore that T°C(47) >40 °C obtained from ancient soil carbonate indicates substantially warmer climate regimes compared to the present, or non-primary temperatures produced by resetting during diagenesis. If representative, this limits the use of T°C(47) to reconstruct ancient surface temperature to modestly buried (<3-4 km) paleosol carbonates. Despite diagenetic resetting of Δ47 values, δ18O and δ13C values of the same deeply buried paleosol carbonate appear unaltered. We conclude that solid-state reordering or recrystallization of clumping of carbon and oxygen isotopes can occur in the absence of open-system exchange of paleosol carbonate with significant quantities of water or other phases.

Atmospheric signature of the Agulhas current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Arielle; Koseki, Shunya; Rouault, Mathieu; Keenlyside, Noel

2017-04-01

Satellite observation and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) are used to map the influence of the Agulhas current on local annual precipitation in Southern Africa. The pressure adjustment mechanism is applied over the Agulhas current region. Results unfold that the narrow band of precipitation above the Agulhas Current is collocated with surface wind convergence, sea surface temperature (SST) Laplacian and sea level pressure (SLP) Laplacian. Relationship between SLP Laplacian and wind convergence is found, with 0.54 correlation coefficient statistically significant. In the free troposphere, the band of precipitation above the Agulhas current is collocated with the wind divergence and the upward motion of wind velocity. The warm waters from the Agulhas current can influence local precipitation.

Microclimate of a desert playa: evaluation of annual radiation, energy, and water budgets components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Esmaiel

2003-03-01

We set up two automatic weather stations over a playa (the flat floor of an undrained desert basin that, at times, becomes a shallow lake), approximately 65 km east-west by 130 km north-south, located in Dugway (40° 08N, 113° 27W, 1124 m above mean sea level) in northwestern Utah, USA, in 1999. These stations measured the radiation budget components, namely: incoming Rsi and outgoing Rso solar or shortwave radiation, using two Kipp and Zonen pyranometers (one inverted), the incoming Rli (or atmospheric) and outgoing Rlo (or terrestrial) longwave radiation, using two Kipp and Zonen pyrgeometers (one inverted) during the year 2000. These sensors were ventilated throughout the year to prevent dew and frost formation. Summation of these components yields the net radiation Rn. We also measured the air temperatures and humidity at 1 and 2 m and the soil moisture and temperature (Campbell Sci., Inc., CSI) to evaluate the energy budget components (latent (LE), sensible (H), and the soil (Gsur) heat fluxes). The 10 m wind speed U10 and direction (R.M. Young wind monitor), precipitation (CSI), and the surface temperature (Radiation and Energy Balance Systems, REBS) were also measured during 2000. The measurements were taken every 2 s, averaged into 20 min, continuously, throughout the year 2000. The annual comparison of radiation budget components indicates that about 34% of the annual Rsi (6937.7 MJ m-2 year-1) was reflected back to the sky as Rso, with Rli and Rlo amounting to 9943.4 MJ m-2 year-1 and 12 789.7 MJ m-2 year-1 respectively. This yields about 1634.3 MJ m-2 year-1 as Rn, which is about 24% of the annual Rsi. Of the total 1634.3 MJ m-2 year-1 available energy, about 25% was used for the process of evaporation (LE) and 77% for heating the air (H). The annual heat contribution from the soil to the energy budget amounted to 2% during the experimental period. Our studies showed that the total annual measured precipitation amounted to 108.0 mm year-1 during the year 2000, but the total evaporation was 167.6 mm year-1, which means some water was extracted from the shallow water table (about 60 cm on the average depth during the year 2000).

Metabolic costs of capital energy storage in a small-bodied ectotherm.

PubMed

Griffen, Blaine D

2017-04-01

Reproduction is energetically financed using strategies that fall along a continuum from animals that rely on stored energy acquired prior to reproduction (i.e., capital breeders) to those that rely on energy acquired during reproduction (i.e., income breeders). Energy storage incurs a metabolic cost. However, previous studies suggest that this cost may be minimal for small-bodied ectotherms. Here I test this assumption. I use a laboratory feeding experiment with the European green crab Carcinus maenas to establish individuals with different amounts of energy storage. I then demonstrate that differences in energy storage account for 26% of the variation in basal metabolic costs. The magnitudes of these costs for any individual crab vary through time depending on the amount of energy it has stored, as well as on temperature-dependent metabolism. I use previously established relationships between temperature- and mass-dependent metabolic rates, combined with a feasible annual pattern of energy storage in the Gulf of Maine and annual sea surface temperature patterns in this region, to estimate potential annual metabolic costs expected for mature female green crabs. Results indicate that energy storage should incur an ~8% increase in metabolic costs for female crabs, relative to a hypothetical crab that did not store any energy. Translated into feeding, for a medium-sized mature female (45 mm carapace width), this requires the consumption of an additional ~156 mussels annually to support the metabolic cost of energy storage. These results indicate, contrary to previous assumptions, that the cost of energy storage for small-bodied ectotherms may represent a considerable portion of their basic operating energy budget. An inability to meet these additional costs of energy storage may help explain the recent decline of green crabs in the Gulf of Maine where reduced prey availability and increased consumer competition have combined to hamper green crab foraging success in recent years.

Interannual Variability in Global Soil Respiration on a 0.5 Degree Grid Cell Basis (1980-1994)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raich, J.W.

2003-09-15

We used a climate-driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil-to-atmosphere CO{sub 2} fluxes. The mean annual global soil-CO{sub 2} flux over this 15-y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3-81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil-CO{sub 2} emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil-CO{sub 2} emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreenmore » broad-leaved forests contributed more soil-derived CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type ({approx}30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil-CO{sub 2} emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil-CO{sub 2} production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands, and deserts), interannual variability in soil-CO{sub 2} emissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil-CO{sub 2} fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 PgCY{sup -1} per degree Celsius. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO{sub 2} emissions from soils.« less

[Natural forming causes of China population distribution].

PubMed

Fang, Yu; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Zheng, Hua; Xiao, Yi; Niu, Jun-Feng; Chen, Sheng-Bin; Lu, Fei

2012-12-01

The diverse natural environment in China causes the spatial heterogeneity of China population distribution. It is essential to understand the interrelations between the population distribution pattern and natural environment to enhance the understanding of the man-land relationship and the realization of the sustainable management for the population, resources, and environment. This paper analyzed the China population distribution by adopting the index of population density (PD) in combining with spatial statistic method and Lorenz curve, and discussed the effects of the natural factors on the population distribution and the interrelations between the population distribution and 16 indices including average annual precipitation (AAP), average annual temperature (AAT), average annual sunshine duration (AASD), precipitation variation (PV), temperature variation (TV), sunshine duration variation (SDV), relative humidity (RH), aridity index (AI), warmth index ( WI), > or = 5 degrees C annual accumulated temperature (AACT), average elevation (AE), relative height difference (RHD), surface roughness (SR), water system density (WSD), net primary productivity (NPP), and shortest distance to seashore (SDTS). There existed an obvious aggregation phenomenon in the population distribution in China. The PD was high in east China, medium in central China, and low in west China, presenting an obvious positive spatial association. The PD was significantly positively correlated with WSD, AAT, AAP, NPP, AACT, PV, RH, and WI, and significantly negatively correlated with RHD, AE, SDV, SR, and SDTS. The climate factors (AAT, WI, PV, and NPP), topography factors (SR and RHD), and water system factor (WSD) together determined the basic pattern of the population distribution in China. It was suggested that the monitoring of the eco-environment in the east China of high population density should be strengthened to avoid the eco-environmental degradation due to the expanding population, and the conservation of the eco-environment in the central and west China with vulnerable eco-environment should also be strengthened to enhance the population carrying ability of these regions and to mitigate the eco-environmental pressure in the east China of high population density.

Idaho's surface-water-quality monitoring program: results from five sites sampled during water years 1990-93

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1994-01-01

In 1990, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, Division of Environmental Quality, implemented a statewide water-quality monitoring program in response to Idaho's antidegradation policy as required by the Clean Water Act. The program objective is to provide water-quality managers with a coordinated statewide network to detect trends in surface-water quality. The monitoring program includes the collection and analysis of samples from 56 sites on the Bear, Clearwater, Kootenai, Pend Oreille, Salmon, Snake, and Spokane Rivers and their tributaries (fig. 1). Samples are collected every year at 5 sites (annual sites) in drainage basins where long-term water-quality management is practiced, every other year at 19 sites (biennial sites) in basins where land and water uses change slowly, and every third year at 32 sites (triennial sites) where future development may affect water quality. Each year, 25 of the 56 sites are sampled. This report discusses results of sampling at five annual sites. During water years 1990-93 (October 1, 1989, through September 30, 1993), samples were collected six times per year at the five annual sites (fig. 1). Onsite analyses were made for discharge, specific conductance, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, bacteria (fecal coliform and fecal streptococci), and alkalinity. Laboratory analyses were made for major ions, nutrients, trace elements, and suspended sediment. Suspended sediment, nitrate, fecal coliform, trace elements, and specific conductance were used to characterize surface-water quality. Because concentrations of all trace elements except zinc were near detection limits, only zinc is discussed.

The role of ecosystem memory in predicting inter-annual variations of the tropical carbon balance.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloom, A. A.; Liu, J.; Bowman, K. W.; Konings, A. G.; Saatchi, S.; Worden, J. R.; Worden, H. M.; Jiang, Z.; Parazoo, N.; Williams, M. D.; Schimel, D.

2017-12-01

Understanding the trajectory of the tropical carbon balance remains challenging, in part due to large uncertainties in the integrated response of carbon cycle processes to climate variability. Satellite observations atmospheric CO2 from GOSAT and OCO-2, together with ancillary satellite measurements, provide crucial constraints on continental-scale terrestrial carbon fluxes. However, an integrated understanding of both climate forcings and legacy effects (or "ecosystem memory") on the terrestrial carbon balance is ultimately needed to reduce uncertainty on its future trajectory. Here we use the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) diagnostic model-data fusion approach - constrained by an array of C cycle satellite surface observations, including MODIS leaf area, biomass, GOSAT solar-induced fluorescence, as well as "top-down" atmospheric inversion estimates of CO2 and CO surface fluxes from the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) - to constrain and predict spatially-explicit tropical carbon state variables during 2010-2015. We find that the combined assimilation of land surface and atmospheric datasets places key constraints on the temperature sensitivity and first order carbon-water feedbacks throughout the tropics and combustion factors within biomass burning regions. By varying the duration of the assimilation period, we find that the prediction skill on inter-annual net biospheric exchange is primarily limited by record length rather than model structure and process representation. We show that across all tropical biomes, quantitative knowledge of memory effects - which account for 30-50% of interannual variations across the tropics - is critical for understanding and ultimately predicting the inter-annual tropical carbon balance.

Projections of the 21st Century Freezing/Thawing Index in the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frauenfeld, O. W.; Zhang, T.; Teng, H.; Etringer, A. J.

2006-12-01

Variability in the ground thermal regime in high-latitude cold regions has important ramifications for surface and subsurface hydrology, carbon exchange, the surface energy and moisture balance, and ecosystem diversity and productivity. However, assessing these variations, particularly in light of reported widespread atmospheric and terrestrial changes over recent decades, remains a challenge due to the sparse observing networks in high latitudes. The annual freezing/thawing (F/T) index can be used to predict and map permafrost and seasonally frozen ground distribution, active layer and seasonal freeze depths, and has important engineering applications, thereby providing important information on climate variability in cold regions. Reliable long-term measurements of the F/T index are thus important variables for understanding and predicting high-latitude climate processes. The F/T index is defined as the cumulative number of degree-days below/above 0°C for a given time period. However, in recent work we have established that long- term monthly air temperature measurements can be used very reliably to approximate the annual F/T index. This has enabled us to produce a 25-km gridded Northern Hemisphere annual F/T index data set for 1901-2002 (see http://nsidc.org/data/ggd649.html). In this current effort we employ model projections of surface air temperatures from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to provide an estimate of 21st century F/T index changes. This will provide an important analog to recent work on trying to establish near-surface permafrost changes in the Arctic. We will make use of runs for the four emission scenarios ("commit," "SRESA2," "SRESA1B," and "SRESB1") and "20th Century Climate in Coupled Models" (20c3m) from all 16 available models, as well as a multi-model ensemble. We first perform a comparison between our existing historical data base of F/T indices and the overlapping period of the IPCC model runs to assess the correspondence between historical observations and models. Next, we calculate the F/T index based on future scenarios, and apply the 20th century F/T indices to estimate future distributions of frozen ground, as well as active layer and seasonal freeze depths.

Harmonic analyses of stream temperatures in the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steele, T.D.

1985-01-01

Harmonic analyses were made for available daily water-temperature records for 36 measurement sites on major streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin and for 14 measurement sites on streams in the Piceance structural basin. Generally (88 percent of the station years analyzed), more than 80 percent of the annual variability of temperatures of streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin was explained by the simple-harmonic function. Significant trends were determined for 6 of the 26 site records having 8 years or more record. In most cases, these trends resulted from construction and operation of upstream surface-water impoundments occurring during the period of record. Regional analysis of water-temperature characteristics at the 14 streamflow sites in the Piceance structural basin indicated similarities in water-temperature characteristics for a small range of measurement-site elevations. Evaluation of information content of the daily records indicated that less-than-daily measurement intervals should be considered, resulting in substantial savings in measurement and data-processing costs. (USGS)

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Estimating sources of Valley Fever pathogen propagation in southern Arizona: A remote sensing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pianalto, Frederick S.

Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) is an environmentally-mediated respiratory disease caused by the inhalation of airborne spores from the fungi Coccidioides spp. The fungi reside in arid and semi-arid soils of the Americas. The disease has increased epidemically in Arizona and other areas within the last two decades. Despite this increase, the ecology of the fungi remains obscure, and environmental antecedents of the disease are largely unstudied. Two sources of soil disturbance, hypothesized to affect soil ecology and initiate spore dissemination, are investigated. Nocturnal desert rodents interact substantially with the soil substrate. Rodents are hypothesized to act as a reservoir of coccidioidomycosis, a mediator of soil properties, and a disseminator of fungal spores. Rodent distributions are poorly mapped for the study area. We build automated multi-linear regression models and decision tree models for ten rodent species using rodent trapping data from the Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument (ORPI) in southwest Arizona with a combination of surface temperature, a vegetation index and its texture, and a suite of topographic rasters. Surface temperature, derived from Landsat TM thermal images, is the most widely selected predictive variable in both automated methods. Construction-related soil disturbance (e.g. road construction, trenching, land stripping, and earthmoving) is a significant source of fugitive dust, which decreases air quality and may carry soil pathogens. Annual differencing of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) mid-infrared images is used to create change images, and thresholded change areas are associated with coordinates of local dust inspections. The output metric identifies source areas of soil disturbance, and it estimates the annual amount of dust-producing surface area for eastern Pima County spanning 1994 through 2009. Spatially explicit construction-related soil disturbance and rodent abundance data are compared with coccidioidomycosis incidence data using rank order correlation and regression methods. Construction-related soil disturbance correlates strongly with annual county-wide incidence. It also correlates with Tucson periphery incidence aggregated to zip codes. Abundance values for the desert pocket mouse (Chaetodipus penicillatus), derived from a soil-adjusted vegetation index, aspect (northing) and thermal radiance, correlate with total study period incidence aggregated to zip code.

Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

PubMed

Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

2017-12-31

Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving Streamflow Forecasts Using Predefined Sea Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

2011-12-01

With the increasing evidence of climate variability, water resources managers in the western United States are faced with greater challenges of developing long range streamflow forecast. This is further aggravated by the increases in climate extremes such as floods and drought caused by climate variability. Over the years, climatologists have identified several modes of climatic variability and their relationship with streamflow. These climate modes have the potential of being used as predictor in models for improving the streamflow lead time. With this as the motivation, the current research focuses on increasing the streamflow lead time using predefine climate indices. A data driven model i.e. Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory is used to predict annual streamflow volume 3-year in advance. The SVM model is a learning system that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space, and is trained with a learning algorithm from the optimization theory. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and a new Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set of "Hondo" Region for a period of 1906-2005 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes. The SVM model is applied to three gages i.e. Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Based on the performance measures the model shows very good forecasts, and the forecast are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Previous research has identified NAO and ENSO as main drivers for extending streamflow forecast lead-time in the UCRB. Inclusion of "Hondo Region" SST information further improve the model's forecasting ability. The overall results of this study revealed that the annual streamflow of the UCRB is significantly influenced by predefine climate modes and the proposed SVM modeling technique incorporating oceanic-atmospheric oscillations is expected to be useful to water managers in the long-term management of the water resources within the UCRB.

Nitrogen and carbon soil dynamics in response to climate change in a high-elevation ecosystem in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, M.W.; Brooks, P.D.; Seastedt, T.

1998-01-01

We have implemented a long-term snow-fence experiment at the Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research (NWT) site in the Colorado Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., to assess the effects of climate change on alpine ecology and biogeochemical cycles. The responses of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in high-elevation mountains to changes in climate are investigated by manipulating the length and duration of snow cover with the 2.6 x 60 m snow fence, providing a proxy for climate change. Results from the first year of operation in 1994 showed that the period of continuous snow cover was increased by 90 d. The deeper and earlier snowpack behind the fence insulated soils from winter air temperatures, resulting in a 9??C increase in annual minimum temperature at the soil surface. The extended period of snow cover resulted in subnivial microbial activity playing a major role in annual C and N cycling. The amount of C mineralized under the snow as measured by CO2 production was 22 g m-2 in 1993 and 35 g m-2 in 1994, accounting for 20% of annual net primary aboveground production before construction of the snow fence in 1993 and 31% after the snow fence was constructed in 1994. In a similar fashion, maximum subnivial N2O flux increased 3-fold behind the snow fence, from 75 ??g N m-2 d-1 in 1993 to 250 ??g N m-2 d-1 in 1994. The amount of N lost from denitrification was greater than the annual atmospheric input of N in snowfall. Surface litter decomposition studies show that there was a significant increase in the litter mass loss under deep and early snow, with no significant change under medium and little snow conditions. Changes in climate that result in differences in snow duration, depth, and extent may therefore produce large changes in the C and N soil dynamics of alpine ecosystems.

RCCM2-BATS model over tropical South America: Applications to tropical deforestation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hahmann, A.N.; Dickinson, R.E.

A multiyear simulation of the global climate uses a revised version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 2 (CCM2) coupled to the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). It is compared with global and rain gauge precipitation climatologies to evaluate precipitation fields and European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts analyses to evaluate the atmospheric circulation. The near-surface climate is compared with data from Amazonian field campaigns. The model simulation of the South American climate agrees closely with the observational record and is much improved from past simulations with previous versions of the NCAR Community Climate model overmore » this portion of the Tropics. The model is then used to study the local and regional response to tropical deforestation over Amazonia. In addition to the standard deforestation forcing, consisting mainly of increased albedo and decreased roughness length, two additional sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the individual contributions from these forcings to the deforestation changes. The standard deforestation simulation shows slight increases in annually averaged surface temperature (+1{degrees}C) and reductions in annually averaged precipitation and evaporation (-363 and -149 mm yr{sup -1}, respectively). As expected, increases in surface albedo over Amazonia produce a reduction in net downward solar radiation at the surface and consequently a reduction in net surface radiation and surface latent heat flux. The roughness decrease, on the other hand, reduces the surface latent heat fluxes through decreases in the surface drag coefficient. The regional changes in moisture convergence and precipitation during the Amazonian wet season display a shift in the area of maximum precipitation rather than an overall decrease over the deforested area. 45 refs., 16 figs., 4 tabs.« less

A Skilful Marine Sclerochronological Network Based Reconstruction of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, D.; Hall, I. R.; Slater, S. M.; Scourse, J. D.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Halloran, P. R.; Garry, F. K.

2017-12-01

Spatial network analyses of precisely dated, and annually resolved, tree-ring proxy records have facilitated robust reconstructions of past atmospheric climate variability and the associated mechanisms and forcings that drive it. In contrast, a lack of similarly dated marine archives has constrained the use of such techniques in the marine realm, despite the potential for developing a more robust understanding of the role basin scale ocean dynamics play in the global climate system. Here we show that a spatial network of marine molluscan sclerochronological oxygen isotope (δ18Oshell) series spanning the North Atlantic region provides a skilful reconstruction of basin scale North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our analyses demonstrate that the composite marine series (referred to as δ18Oproxy_PC1) is significantly sensitive to inter-annual variability in North Atlantic SSTs (R=-0.61 P<0.01) and surface air temperatures (SATs; R=-0.67, P<0.01) over the 20th century. Subpolar gyre (SPG) SSTs dominates variability in the δ18Oproxy_PC1 series at sub-centennial frequencies (R=-0.51, P<0.01). Comparison of the δ18Oproxy_PC1 series against variability in the strength of the European Slope Current and maximum North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation derived from numeric climate models (CMIP5), indicates that variability in the SPG region, associated with the strength of the surface currents of the North Atlantic, are playing a significant role in shaping the multi-decadal scale SST variability over the industrial era. These analyses demonstrate that spatial networks developed from sclerochronological archives can provide powerful baseline archives of past ocean variability that can facilitate the development of a quantitative understanding for the role the oceans play in the global climate systems and constraining uncertainties in numeric climate models.

Spatial distribution of pingos in Northern Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grosse, G.; Jones, Benjamin M.

2010-01-01

Pingos are prominent periglacial landforms in vast regions of the Arctic and Subarctic. They are indicators of modern and past conditions of permafrost, surface geology, hydrology and climate. A first version of a detailed spatial geodatabase of more than 6000 pingo locations in a 3.5 ?? 106 km2 region of Northern Asia was assembled from topographic maps. A first order analysis was carried out with respect to permafrost, landscape characteristics, surface geology, hydrology, climate, and elevation datasets using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Pingo heights in the dataset vary between 2 and 37 m, with a mean height of 4.8 m. About 64% of the pingos occur in continuous permafrost with high ice content and thick sediments; another 19% in continuous permafrost with moderate ice content and thick sediments. The majority of these pingos likely formed through closed system freezing, typical of those located in drained thermokarst lake basins of northern lowlands with continuous permafrost. About 82% of the pingos are located in the tundra bioclimatic zone. Most pingos in the dataset are located in regions with mean annual ground temperatures between -3 and -11 ??C and mean annual air temperatures between -7 and -18 ??C. The dataset confirms that surface geology and hydrology are key factors for pingo formation and occurrence. Based on model predictions for near-future permafrost distribution, hundreds of pingos along the southern margins of permafrost will be located in regions with thawing permafrost by 2100, which ultimately may lead to increased occurrence of pingo collapse. Based on our dataset and previously published estimates of pingo numbers from other regions, we conclude that there are more than 11 000 pingos on Earth. ?? 2010 Author(s).

Antarctic Mirabilite Mounds as Mars Analogs: The Lewis Cliffs Ice Tongue Revisited

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Socki, Richard A.; Sun, Tao; Niles, Paul B.; Harvey, Ralph P.; Bish, David L.; Tonui, Eric

2012-01-01

It has been proposed, based on geomorphic and geochemical arguments, that subsurface water has played an important role in the history of water on the planet Mars [1]. Subsurface water, if present, could provide a protected and long lived environment for potential life. Discovery of gullies [2] and recurring slopes [3] on Mars suggest the potential for subsurface liquid water or brines. Recent attention has also focused on small (< approx. 1km dia.) mound-like geomorphic features discovered within the mid to high latitudes on the surface of Mars which may be caused by eruptions of subsurface fluids [4, 5]. We have identified massive but highly localized Na-sulfate deposits (mirabilite mounds, Na2SO4 .10H2O) that may be derived from subsurface fluids and may provide insight into the processes associated with subsurface fluids on Mars. The mounds are found on the end moraine of the Lewis Cliffs Ice Tongue (LCIT) [6] in the Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica, and are potential terrestrial analogs for mounds observed on the martian surface. The following characteristics distinguish LCIT evaporite mounds from other evaporite mounds found in Antarctic coastal environments and/or the McMurdo Dry Valleys: (1) much greater distance from the open ocean (approx.500 km); (2) higher elevation (approx.2200 meters); and (3) colder average annual temperature (average annual temperature = -30 C for LCIT [7] vs. 20 C at sea level in the McMurdo region [8]. Furthermore, the recent detection of subsurface water ice (inferred as debris-covered glacial ice) by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter [9] supports the use of an Antarctic glacial environment, particularly with respect to the mirabilite deposits described in this work, as an ideal terrestrial analog for understanding the geochemistry associated with near-surface martian processes. S and O isotopic compositions.

Centennial-scale winter climate variability over the last two millennia in the northern Gulf of Mexico based on paired δ18O and Mg/Ca in Globorotalia truncatulinoides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortiz, V.; Thirumalai, K.; Richey, J. N.; Quinn, T. M.

2014-12-01

We present a replicated record of paired foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca variations in multi-cores collected from the Garrison Basin (26º43'N, 93º55'W) in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Using δ18O (sea surface temperature, SST; sea surface salinity, SSS proxy) and Mg/Ca (SST proxy) variations in non-encrusted planktic foraminifer Globorotalia truncatulinoides we produce time series spanning the last two millennia that is characterized by centennial-scale climate variability. We interpret geochemical variations in G. truncatulinoides to reflect winter climate variability because data from a sediment trap, located ~350 km east of the core site, reveal that annual flux of G. truncatulinoides is heavily weighted towards winter (peak production in January-February; Spear et al., 2011). Similar centennial-scale variability is also observed in the foraminiferal geochemistry of Globigerinoides ruber in the same multi-cores, which likely reflect mean annual climate variations. Our replicated results and comparisons to other SST reconstructions from the region lend confidence that the northern GOM surface ocean underwent large, centennial-scale variability, most likely dominated by changes in winter climate. This variability occurred in a time period where climate forcing is small and background conditions are similar to pre-industrial times. References: Spear, J.W.; Poore, R.Z., and Quinn, T.M., 2011, Globorotalia truncatulinoides (dextral) Mg/Ca as a proxy for Gulf of Mexico winter mixed-layer temperature: Evidence from a sediment trap in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Marine Micropaleontology, 80, 53-61.

Atmospheric forcing and Sea Surface Temperature response in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran Sea system in a 20 years simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutov, D.; Peliz, A.

2012-04-01

In the frame of MedEX ("Inter-basin exchange in the changing Mediterranean Sea") Project a 20 years (1989-2008) simulation at 2km resolution covering Gulf of Cadiz and Alboran Sea, forced by 9 km winds (WRF downscaling of ERA-Interim reanalysis), is analyzed and compared with observations. Statistical methods, EOF techniques and two harmonic (including annual and semi-annual frequencies) data fit were performed for the analysis. Modeled SST fields are also compared with long-term (1996-2008) in-situ buoy observations provided by Puertos del Estado (Spain) and satellite derived Pathfinder SST database. Model SSTs generally follow observations data at annual and inter-annual scales with a global error not exceeding 0.17°C (model warmer than SST). No significant warming tendency was observed in both basins during the 20 years and the Interanual variability dominates, with the series showing a cooling period from 1991 to 1993 followed by a warming period started from 1994. In particular we show that SST cooling observed in the early 1990's in the Gulf of Cadiz - Alboran system is associated with the 1991 catastrophic eruption of Pinatubo volcano (Philippines).

Projecting effects of climate change on marine systems: is the mean all that matters?

PubMed Central

Boersma, Maarten; Grüner, Nico; Tasso Signorelli, Natália; Montoro González, Pedro E.; Wiltshire, Karen H.

2016-01-01

Studies dealing with the effects of changing global temperatures on living organisms typically concentrate on annual mean temperatures. This, however, might not be the best approach in temperate systems with large seasonality where the mean annual temperature is actually not experienced very frequently. The mean annual temperature across a 50-year, daily time series of measurements at Helgoland Roads (54.2° N, 7.9° E) is 10.1°C while seasonal data are characterized by a clear, bimodal distribution; temperatures are around 6°C in winter and 15°C in summer with rapid transitions in spring and autumn. Across those 50 years, the temperature at which growth is maximal for each single bloom event for 115 phytoplankton species (more than 6000 estimates of optimal temperature) mirrors the bimodal distribution of the in situ temperatures. Moreover, independent laboratory data on temperature optima for growth of North Sea organisms yielded similar results: a deviance from the normal distribution, with a gap close to the mean annual temperature, and more optima either above or below this temperature. We conclude that organisms, particularly those that are short-lived, are either adapted to the prevailing winter or summer temperatures in temperate areas and that few species exist with thermal optima within the periods characterized by rapid spring warming and autumn cooling. PMID:26791614

Projecting effects of climate change on marine systems: is the mean all that matters?

PubMed

Boersma, Maarten; Grüner, Nico; Tasso Signorelli, Natália; Montoro González, Pedro E; Peck, Myron A; Wiltshire, Karen H

2016-01-27

Studies dealing with the effects of changing global temperatures on living organisms typically concentrate on annual mean temperatures. This, however, might not be the best approach in temperate systems with large seasonality where the mean annual temperature is actually not experienced very frequently. The mean annual temperature across a 50-year, daily time series of measurements at Helgoland Roads (54.2° N, 7.9° E) is 10.1°C while seasonal data are characterized by a clear, bimodal distribution; temperatures are around 6°C in winter and 15°C in summer with rapid transitions in spring and autumn. Across those 50 years, the temperature at which growth is maximal for each single bloom event for 115 phytoplankton species (more than 6000 estimates of optimal temperature) mirrors the bimodal distribution of the in situ temperatures. Moreover, independent laboratory data on temperature optima for growth of North Sea organisms yielded similar results: a deviance from the normal distribution, with a gap close to the mean annual temperature, and more optima either above or below this temperature. We conclude that organisms, particularly those that are short-lived, are either adapted to the prevailing winter or summer temperatures in temperate areas and that few species exist with thermal optima within the periods characterized by rapid spring warming and autumn cooling. © 2016 The Author(s).

Wind-driven snow conditions control the occurrence of contemporary marginal mountain permafrost in the Chic-Choc Mountains, south-eastern Canada: a case study from Mont Jacques-Cartier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davesne, Gautier; Fortier, Daniel; Domine, Florent; Gray, James T.

2017-06-01

We present data on the distribution and thermophysical properties of snow collected sporadically over 4 decades along with recent data of ground surface temperature from Mont Jacques-Cartier (1268 m a.s.l.), the highest summit in the Appalachians of south-eastern Canada. We demonstrate that the occurrence of contemporary permafrost is necessarily associated with a very thin and wind-packed winter snow cover which brings local azonal topo-climatic conditions on the dome-shaped summit. The aims of this study were (i) to understand the snow distribution pattern and snow thermophysical properties on the Mont Jacques-Cartier summit and (ii) to investigate the impact of snow on the spatial distribution of the ground surface temperature (GST) using temperature sensors deployed over the summit. Results showed that above the local treeline, the summit is characterized by a snow cover typically less than 30 cm thick which is explained by the strong westerly winds interacting with the local surface roughness created by the physiography and surficial geomorphology of the site. The snowpack structure is fairly similar to that observed on windy Arctic tundra with a top dense wind slab (300 to 450 kg m-3) of high thermal conductivity, which facilitates heat transfer between the ground surface and the atmosphere. The mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST) below this thin and wind-packed snow cover was about -1 °C in 2013 and 2014, for the higher, exposed, blockfield-covered sector of the summit characterized by a sporadic herbaceous cover. In contrast, for the gentle slopes covered with stunted spruce (krummholz), and for the steep leeward slope to the south-east of the summit, the MAGST was around 3 °C in 2013 and 2014. The study concludes that the permafrost on Mont Jacques-Cartier, most widely in the Chic-Choc Mountains and by extension in the southern highest summits of the Appalachians, is therefore likely limited to the barren wind-exposed surface of the summit where the low air temperature, the thin snowpack and the wind action bring local cold surface conditions favourable to permafrost development.

Annual Soil Temperature Wave at Four Depths in Southwestern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Richard S. Sartz

1967-01-01

Soil temperature was measured for a year on a southeast-facing slope of 25 percent, latitude 43 degrees 50 minutes N. The spring-summer cover was unmowed alfalfa-bluegrass meadow, the fall-winter cover, meadow stubble. Snow cover was light or absent. The soil was Fayette silt loam, valley phase. The annual temperature wave at all depths followed the air temperature...

Evaluation of temperature differences for paired stations of the U.S. Climate Reference Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallo, K.P.

2005-01-01

Adjustments to data observed at pairs of climate stations have been recommended to remove the biases introduced by differences between the stations in time of observation, temperature instrumentatios, latitude, and elevation. A new network of climate stations, located in rural settings, permits comparisons of temperatures for several pairs of stations without two of the biases (time of observation and instrurtientation). The daily, monthly, and annual minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures were compared for five pairs of stations included in the U.S. Climate Reference Network. Significant differences were found between the paired stations in the annual minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures for all five pairs of stations. Adjustments for latitude and elevation differences contributed to greater differences in mean annual temperature for four of the five stations. Lapse rates computed from the mean annual temperature differences between station pairs differed from a constant value, whether or not latitude adjustments were made to the data. The results suggest that microclimate influences on temperatures observed at nearby (horizontally and vertically) stations are potentially much greater than influences that might be due to latitude or elevation differences between the stations. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.

Mapping of Temporal Surface-water Resources Availability and Agricultural Adaptability due to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity in a Hot Semi-arid Region of Maharashtra State, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, A.; Inamdar, A. B.

2016-12-01

Major part of Godavari River Basin is intensely drought prone and climate vulnerable in the Western Maharashtra State, India. The economy of the state depends on the agronomic productivity of this region. So, it is necessary to regulate the effects of existing and upcoming hydro-meteorological advances in various strata. This study investigates and maps the surface water resources availability and vegetation, their decadal deviations with multi-temporal LANDSAT images; and finally quantifies the agricultural adaptations. This work involves the utilization of Remote Sensing and GIS with Hydrological modeling. First, climatic trend analysis is carried out with NCEP dataset. Then, multi-temporal LANDSAT images are classified to determine the decadal LULC changes and correlated to the community level hydrological demand. Finally, NDVI, NDWI and SWAT model analysis are accomplished to determine irrigated and non-irrigated cropping area for identifying the agricultural adaptations. The analysis shows that the mean value of annual and monsoon rainfall is significantly decreasing, whereas the mean value of annual and summer temperature is increasing significantly and the winter temperature is decreasing. The analysis of LANDSAT images shows that the surface water availability is highly dependent on climatic conditions. Barren-lands are most dynamic during the study period followed by, vegetation, and water bodies. The spatial extent of barren-lands is increased drastically during the climate vulnerable years replacing the vegetation and surface water bodies. Hence, the barren lands are constantly increasing and the vegetation cover is linearly decreasing, whereas the water extent is changing either way in a random fashion. There appears a positive correlation between surface water and vegetation occurrence; as they are fluctuating in a similar fashion in all the years. The vegetation cover is densely replenished around the dams and natural water bodies which serve as the water supply stations for the irrigation purposes. Moreover, there is a shift to non-irrigated and less water demanding crops, from more water demanding crops, which is a conspicuous adaptation. Hence, the study shows there are alteration in meteorological predictors, land cover, agricultural practices and surface water availability.

Global Surface Thermal Inertia Derived from Dawn VIR Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titus, T. N.; Becker, K. J.; Anderson, J.; Capria, M.; Tosi, F.; Prettyman, T. H.; De Sanctis, M. C.; Palomba, E.; Grassi, D.; Capaccioni, F.; Ammannito, E.; Combe, J.; McCord, T. B.; Li, J. Y.; Russell, C. T.; Raymond, C. A.

2012-12-01

Comparisons of surface temperatures, derived from Dawn [1] Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIR-MS) [2] observations , to thermal models suggest that Vesta generally has a low-thermal-inertia surface, between 25 and 35 J m^-2 K^-1 s^-½, consistent with a thick layer of fine-grain material [3]. Temperatures were calculated using a Bayesian approach to nonlinear inversion as described by Tosi et al. [4]. In order to compare observed temperatures of Vesta to model calculations, several geometric and photometric parameters must be known or estimated. These include local mean solar time, latitude, local slope, bond bolometric albedo, and the effective emissivity at 5μm. Local time, latitude, and local slope are calculated using the USGS ISIS software system [5]. We employ a multi-layered thermal-diffusion model called 'KRC' [6], which has been used extensively in the study of Martian thermophysical properties. This thermal model is easily modified for use with Vesta by replacing the Martian ephemeris input with the Vesta ephemeris and disabling the atmosphere. This model calculates surface temperatures throughout an entire Vesta year for specific sets of slope, azimuth, latitude and elevation, and a range of albedo and thermal-inertia values. The ranges of albedo and thermal inertia values create temperature indices that are closely matched to the dates and times observed by VIR. Based on observed temperatures and best-fit KRC thermal models, estimates of the annual mean surface temperatures were found to range from 176 K - 188 K for flat zenith-facing equatorial surfaces, but these temperatures can drop as low as 112 K for polar-facing slopes at mid-latitudes. [7] In this work, we will compare observed temperatures of the surface of Vesta (using data acquired by Dawn VIR-MS [2] during the approach, survey, high-altitude mapping and departure phases) to model temperature results using the KRC thermal model [5]. Where possible, temperature observations from multiple times of day or seasons will be used to better constrain the thermal inertia. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Dawn Instrument, Operations, and Science Teams. This work was funded by the Dawn at Vesta Participating Science Program. [1] C.T. Russell et al. (2004) P&SS, 52, 465-489. [2] M.C. De Sanctis et al. (2011) SSRv 163, 329. [3] M.T. Capria et al. (2012) LPSC XLIII #1863 [4] F. Tosi et al. (2012) LPSC XLIII #1886. [5] J. Anderson et al. (2011) AGU Fall Meeting, #U31A-0009. [6] H.H. Kieffer H., et al. (1977) JGR, 82, 4249-4291. [7] Titus et al. (2012) EPSC, #800.

Forcing Mechanisms for the Variations of Near-surface Temperature Lapse Rates along the Himalayas, Tibetan Plateau (HTP) and Their Surroundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kattel, D. B.; Yao, T.; Ullah, K.; Islam, G. M. T.

2016-12-01

This study investigates the monthly characteristics of near-surface temperature lapse rates (TLRs) (i.e., governed by surface energy balance) based on the 176 stations 30-year (1980 to 2010) dataset covering a wide range of topography, climatic regime and relief (4801 m) in the HTP and its surroundings. Empirical analysis based on techniques in thermodynamics and hydrostatic system were used to obtain the results. Steepest TLRs in summer is due to strong dry convection and shallowest in winter is due to inversion effect is the general pattern of TLR that reported in previous studies in other mountainous region. Result of this study reports a contrast variation of TLRs from general patterns, and suggest distinct forcing mechanisms in an annual cycle. Shallower lapse rate occurs in summer throughout the regions is due to strong heat exchange process within the boundary layer, corresponding to the warm and moist atmospheric conditions. There is a systematic differences of TLRs in winter between the northern and southern slopes the Himalayas. Steeper TLRs in winter on the northern slopes is due to intense cooling at higher elevations, corresponding to the continental dry and cold air surges, and considerable snow-temperature feedback. The differences in elevation and topography, as well as the distinct variation of turbulent heating and cooling, explain the contrast TLRs (shallower) values in winter on the southern slopes. Distinct diurnal variations of TLRs and its magnitudes between alpine, dry, humid and coastal regions is due to the variations of adiabatic mixing during the daytime in the boundary layer i.e., associated with the variations in net radiations, elevation, surface roughness and sea surface temperature. The findings of this study is useful to determine the temperature range for accurately modelling in various field such as hydrology, glaciology, ecology, forestry, agriculture, as well as inevitable for climate downscaling in complex mountainous terrain.

Year-round CH4 and CO2 flux dynamics in two contrasting freshwater ecosystems of the subarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jammet, Mathilde; Dengel, Sigrid; Kettner, Ernesto; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Wik, Martin; Crill, Patrick; Friborg, Thomas

2017-11-01

Lakes and wetlands, common ecosystems of the high northern latitudes, exchange large amounts of the climate-forcing gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) with the atmosphere. The magnitudes of these fluxes and the processes driving them are still uncertain, particularly for subarctic and Arctic lakes where direct measurements of CH4 and CO2 emissions are often of low temporal resolution and are rarely sustained throughout the entire year. Using the eddy covariance method, we measured surface-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and CO2 during 2.5 years in a thawed fen and a shallow lake of a subarctic peatland complex. Gas exchange at the fen exhibited the expected seasonality of a subarctic wetland with maximum CH4 emissions and CO2 uptake in summer, as well as low but continuous emissions of CH4 and CO2 throughout the snow-covered winter. The seasonality of lake fluxes differed, with maximum CO2 and CH4 flux rates recorded at spring thaw. During the ice-free seasons, we could identify surface CH4 emissions as mostly ebullition events with a seasonal trend in the magnitude of the release, while a net CO2 flux indicated photosynthetic activity. We found correlations between surface CH4 emissions and surface sediment temperature, as well as between diel CO2 uptake and diel solar input. During spring, the breakdown of thermal stratification following ice thaw triggered the degassing of both CH4 and CO2. This spring burst was observed in 2 consecutive years for both gases, with a large inter-annual variability in the magnitude of the CH4 degassing. On the annual scale, spring emissions converted the lake from a small CO2 sink to a CO2 source: 80 % of total annual carbon emissions from the lake were emitted as CO2. The annual total carbon exchange per unit area was highest at the fen, which was an annual sink of carbon with respect to the atmosphere. Continuous respiration during the winter partly counteracted the fen summer sink by accounting for, as both CH4 and CO2, 33 % of annual carbon exchange. Our study shows (1) the importance of overturn periods (spring or fall) for the annual CH4 and CO2 emissions of northern lakes, (2) the significance of lakes as atmospheric carbon sources in subarctic landscapes while fens can be a strong carbon sink, and (3) the potential for ecosystem-scale eddy covariance measurements to improve the understanding of short-term processes driving lake-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and CO2.

Effects of local factors and climate on permafrost conditions and distribution in Beiluhe basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.

PubMed

Yin, Guoan; Niu, Fujun; Lin, Zhanju; Luo, Jing; Liu, Minghao

2017-03-01

Beiluhe basin is underlain by warm and ice-rich permafrost, and covered by vegetation and soils characteristic of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A field monitoring network was established to investigate permafrost conditions and to assess potential impacts of local factors and climate change. This paper describes the spatial variations in permafrost conditions from instrumented boreholes, controlling environmental factors, and recent thermal evolution of permafrost in the basin. The study area was divided into 10 ecotypes using satellite imagery based classification. The field investigations and cluster analysis of ground temperatures indicated that permafrost underlies most of the ground in swamp meadow, undisturbed alpine meadow, degrading alpine meadow, and desert alpine grassland, but is absent in other cover types. Permafrost-ecotope relations examined over a 2-year (2014-2016) period indicated that: (i) ground surface temperatures varied largely among ecotopes; (ii) annual mean ground temperatures ranged from -1.5 to 0°C in permafrost, indicating sensitive permafrost conditions; (iii) active-layer thicknesses ranged from 1.4m to 3.4m; (iv) ground ice content at the top of permafrost is high, but the active-layer soil is relatively dry. Long-term climate warming has driven thermal changes to permafrost, but ground surface characteristics and soil moisture content strongly influence the ground thermal state. These factors control local-scale spatial variations in permafrost conditions. The warm permafrost in the basin is commonly in thermal disequilibrium, and is sensitive to future climate change. Active-layer thicknesses have increased by at least 42cm and the mean annual ground temperatures have increased by up to 0.2°C in the past 10years over the basin. A permafrost distribution map was produced based on ecotypes, suggesting that permafrost underlies 64% of the study region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

3D modeling of groundwater heat transport in the shallow Westliches Leibnitzer Feld aquifer, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rock, Gerhard; Kupfersberger, Hans

2018-02-01

For the shallow Westliches Leibnitzer feld aquifer (45 km2) we applied the recently developed methodology by Kupfersberger et al. (2017a) to derive the thermal upper boundary for a 3D heat transport model from observed air temperatures. We distinguished between land uses of grass and agriculture, sealed surfaces, forest and water bodies. To represent the heat flux from heated buildings and the mixture between different land surfaces in urban areas we ran the 1D vertical heat conduction module SoilTemp which is coupled to the heat transport model (using FEFLOW) on a time step basis. Over a simulation period of 23 years the comparison between measured and observed groundwater temperatures yielded NSE values ranging from 0.41 to 0.92 including readings at different depths. The model results showed that the thermal input signals lead to distinctly different vertical groundwater temperature distributions. To overcome the influence of specific warm or cold years we introduced the computation of an annual averaged groundwater temperature profile. With respect to the use of groundwater cooling or heating facilities we evaluated the application of vertically averaged statistical groundwater temperature distributions compared to the use of temperature distributions at selected dates. We concluded that the heat transport model serves well as an aquifer scale management tool to optimize the use of the shallow subsurface for thermal purposes and to analyze the impacts of corresponding measures on groundwater temperatures.

Monitoring glacier albedo as a proxy to derive summer and annual surface mass balances from optical remote-sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davaze, Lucas; Rabatel, Antoine; Arnaud, Yves; Sirguey, Pascal; Six, Delphine; Letreguilly, Anne; Dumont, Marie

2018-01-01

Less than 0.25 % of the 250 000 glaciers inventoried in the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI V.5) are currently monitored with in situ measurements of surface mass balance. Increasing this archive is very challenging, especially using time-consuming methods based on in situ measurements, and complementary methods are required to quantify the surface mass balance of unmonitored glaciers. The current study relies on the so-called albedo method, based on the analysis of albedo maps retrieved from optical satellite imagery acquired since 2000 by the MODIS sensor, on board the TERRA satellite. Recent studies revealed substantial relationships between summer minimum glacier-wide surface albedo and annual surface mass balance, because this minimum surface albedo is directly related to the accumulation-area ratio and the equilibrium-line altitude. On the basis of 30 glaciers located in the French Alps where annual surface mass balance data are available, our study conducted on the period 2000-2015 confirms the robustness and reliability of the relationship between the summer minimum surface albedo and the annual surface mass balance. For the ablation season, the integrated summer surface albedo is significantly correlated with the summer surface mass balance of the six glaciers seasonally monitored. These results are promising to monitor both annual and summer glacier-wide surface mass balances of individual glaciers at a regional scale using optical satellite images. A sensitivity study on the computed cloud masks revealed a high confidence in the retrieved albedo maps, restricting the number of omission errors. Albedo retrieval artifacts have been detected for topographically incised glaciers, highlighting limitations in the shadow correction algorithm, although inter-annual comparisons are not affected by systematic errors.

Forest fire danger index based on modifying Nesterov Index, fuel, and anthropogenic activities using MODIS TERRA, AQUA and TRMM satellite datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suresh Babu, K. V.; Roy, Arijit; Ramachandra Prasad, P.

2016-05-01

Forest fire has been regarded as one of the major causes of degradation of Himalayan forests in Uttarakhand. Forest fires occur annually in more than 50% of forests in Uttarakhand state, mostly due to anthropogenic activities and spreads due to moisture conditions and type of forest fuels. Empirical drought indices such as Keetch-Byram drought index, the Nesterov index, Modified Nesterov index, the Zhdanko index which belongs to the cumulative type and the Angstrom Index which belongs to the daily type have been used throughout the world to assess the potential fire danger. In this study, the forest fire danger index has been developed from slightly modified Nesterov index, fuel and anthropogenic activities. Datasets such as MODIS TERRA Land Surface Temperature and emissivity (MOD11A1), MODIS AQUA Atmospheric profile product (MYD07) have been used to determine the dew point temperature and land surface temperature. Precipitation coefficient has been computed from Tropical Rainfall measuring Mission (TRMM) product (3B42RT). Nesterov index has been slightly modified according to the Indian context and computed using land surface temperature, dew point temperature and precipitation coefficient. Fuel type danger index has been derived from forest type map of ISRO based on historical fire location information and disturbance danger index has been derived from disturbance map of ISRO. Finally, forest fire danger index has been developed from the above mentioned indices and MODIS Thermal anomaly product (MOD14) has been used for validating the forest fire danger index.

Soil temperature extrema recovery rates after precipitation cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welker, J. E.

1984-01-01

From a one dimensional view of temperature alone variations at the Earth's surface manifest themselves in two cyclic patterns of diurnal and annual periods, due principally to the effects of diurnal and seasonal changes in solar heating as well as gains and losses of available moisture. Beside these two well known cyclic patterns, a third cycle has been identified which occurs in values of diurnal maxima and minima soil temperature extrema at 10 cm depth usually over a mesoscale period of roughly 3 to 14 days. This mesoscale period cycle starts with precipitation cooling of soil and is followed by a power curve temperature recovery. The temperature recovery clearly depends on solar heating of the soil with an increased soil moisture content from precipitation combined with evaporation cooling at soil temperatures lowered by precipitation cooling, but is quite regular and universal for vastly different geographical locations, and soil types and structures. The regularity of the power curve recovery allows a predictive model approach over the recovery period. Multivariable linear regression models alloy predictions of both the power of the temperature recovery curve as well as the total temperature recovery amplitude of the mesoscale temperature recovery, from data available one day after the temperature recovery begins.

The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

2017-04-01

Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

A simple-harmonic model for depicting the annual cycle of seasonal temperatures of streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steele, Timothy Doak

1978-01-01

Due to economic or operational constraints, stream-temperature records cannot always be collected at all sites where information is desired or at frequencies dictated by continuous or near-continuous surveillance requirements. For streams where only periodic measurements are made during the year, and that are not appreciably affected by regulation or by thermal loading , a simple harmonic function may adequately depict the annual seasonal cycle of stream temperature at any given site. Resultant harmonic coefficients obtained from available stream-temperature records may be used in the following ways: (1) To interpolate between discrete measurements by solving the harmonic function at specified times, thereby filling in estimates of stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature conditions; and (3) to detect and to assess any significant at a site brought about by streamflow regulation or basin development. Moreover, less-than-daily or sampling frequencies at a given site may give estimates of annual variation of stream temperatures that are statistically comparable to estimates obtained from a daily or continuous sampling scheme. The latter procedure may result in potential savings of resources in network operations, with negligible loss in information on annual stream-temperature variations. (Woodard -USGS)

Influence of prolonged Anomalies in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on Winter Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Schuster, Mareike; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

The focus of this presentation is on decadal scale variations in the frequency and in the intensity of mid-latitude winter windstorms. Projections for the end of the next century are often beyond the time horizon of business, thus there is an increasing interest on decadal prediction, especially for infrastructural planning and in the insurance industry. One source of decadal predictability is the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a change in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic, strongly linked to the meridional overturning circulation. Correlation patterns between annual AMV-indices and annual mean of geopotential height at 500 hPa in reanalysis data show an anti-correlation in the North Atlantic. That is, during AMV warm phases the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more negative. Consequently, AMV should influence the characteristics of winter windstorms at multi-year scales. For the presented investigations a 10-member ensemble of 38-year-long idealized simulations with the atmosphere model ECHAM6 with lower boundary conditions, representing warm and cool phases of the AMV, is used. In the idealized simulations, the anti-correlation between AMV and NAO is well represented. For the identification of winter windstorms an objective wind tracking algorithm based on the exceedance of the local 98th percentile of 10m wind speed is applied. Storms under AMV-warm and AMV-cool conditions will be compared in terms of storm track density and probability distribution of storm characteristics.

Monitoring Surface Climate With its Emissivity Derived From Satellite Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Liu, Xu

2012-01-01

Satellite thermal infrared (IR) spectral emissivity data have been shown to be significant for atmospheric research and monitoring the Earth fs environment. Long-term and large-scale observations needed for global monitoring and research can be supplied by satellite-based remote sensing. Presented here is the global surface IR emissivity data retrieved from the last 5 years of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements observed from the MetOp-A satellite. Monthly mean surface properties (i.e., skin temperature T(sub s) and emissivity spectra epsilon(sub v) with a spatial resolution of 0.5x0.5-degrees latitude-longitude are produced to monitor seasonal and inter-annual variations. We demonstrate that surface epsilon(sub v) and T(sub s) retrieved with IASI measurements can be used to assist in monitoring surface weather and surface climate change. Surface epsilon(sub v) together with T(sub s) from current and future operational satellites can be utilized as a means of long-term and large-scale monitoring of Earth 's surface weather environment and associated changes.