Simulated permafrost soil thermal dynamics during 1960-2009 in eight offline processed-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, S.; Gouttevin, I.; Krinner, G.; Ciais, P.

2013-12-01

Permafrost soil thermal dynamics not only determine the status of permafrost, but also have large impacts on permafrost organic carbon decomposition. Here, we used eight processed based models that participated in the Vulnerability Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (RCN) project to investigate: (1) the trends in soil temperature at different depths over the northern hemisphere permafrost region during the past five decades, and (2) which factors drive trends and inter-annual variability of permafrost soil temperature? The simulated annual soil temperature at 20cm increases by ~0.02 °C per year from 1960 to 2009 (ranging from 0.00 °C per year in CoLM to 0.04 °C per year in ISBA). Most models simulated more warming of soil in spring and winter than in summer and autumn, although there were different seasonal trends in different models. Trends in soil temperature decrease with soil depth in all models. To quantify the contributions of various factors (air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation etc.) to trends and inter-annual variation in soil temperature, we ran offline models with detrended air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation, respectively. Our results suggest that both annual air temperature and downward longwave radiation significantly correlate with annual soil temperature. Moreover, trend in air temperature and downward longwave radiation contribute 30% and 60% to trends in soil temperature (0 - 200cm), respectively, during the period 1960-2009. Spatial distributions of trend in annual soil temperature at 20cm from R01 simulations of (a) CLM4, (b) CoLM, (c) ISBA, (d) JULES, (e) LPJ_GUESS, (f) ORCHIDEE, (g) UVic and (h) UW-VIC during the period 1960-2009.

Seasonal sea ice cover as principal driver of spatial and temporal variation in depth extension and annual production of kelp in Greenland

PubMed Central

Krause-Jensen, Dorte; Marbà, Núria; Olesen, Birgit; Sejr, Mikael K; Christensen, Peter Bondo; Rodrigues, João; Renaud, Paul E; Balsby, Thorsten JS; Rysgaard, Søren

2012-01-01

We studied the depth distribution and production of kelp along the Greenland coast spanning Arctic to sub-Arctic conditions from 78 °N to 64 °N. This covers a wide range of sea ice conditions and water temperatures, with those presently realized in the south likely to move northwards in a warmer future. Kelp forests occurred along the entire latitudinal range, and their depth extension and production increased southwards presumably in response to longer annual ice-free periods and higher water temperature. The depth limit of 10% kelp cover was 9–14 m at the northernmost sites (77–78 °N) with only 94–133 ice-free days per year, but extended to depths of 21–33 m further south (73 °N–64 °N) where >160 days per year were ice-free, and annual production of Saccharina longicruris and S. latissima, measured as the size of the annual blade, ranged up to sevenfold among sites. The duration of the open-water period, which integrates light and temperature conditions on an annual basis, was the best predictor (relative to summer water temperature) of kelp production along the latitude gradient, explaining up to 92% of the variation in depth extension and 80% of the variation in kelp production. In a decadal time series from a high Arctic site (74 °N), inter-annual variation in sea ice cover also explained a major part (up to 47%) of the variation in kelp production. Both spatial and temporal data sets thereby support the prediction that northern kelps will play a larger role in the coastal marine ecosystem in a warmer future as the length of the open-water period increases. As kelps increase carbon-flow and habitat diversity, an expansion of kelp forests may exert cascading effects on the coastal Arctic ecosystem. PMID:28741817

Seasonal sea ice cover as principal driver of spatial and temporal variation in depth extension and annual production of kelp in Greenland.

PubMed

Krause-Jensen, Dorte; Marbà, Núria; Olesen, Birgit; Sejr, Mikael K; Christensen, Peter Bondo; Rodrigues, João; Renaud, Paul E; Balsby, Thorsten J S; Rysgaard, Søren

2012-10-01

We studied the depth distribution and production of kelp along the Greenland coast spanning Arctic to sub-Arctic conditions from 78 ºN to 64 ºN. This covers a wide range of sea ice conditions and water temperatures, with those presently realized in the south likely to move northwards in a warmer future. Kelp forests occurred along the entire latitudinal range, and their depth extension and production increased southwards presumably in response to longer annual ice-free periods and higher water temperature. The depth limit of 10% kelp cover was 9-14 m at the northernmost sites (77-78 ºN) with only 94-133 ice-free days per year, but extended to depths of 21-33 m further south (73 ºN-64 ºN) where >160 days per year were ice-free, and annual production of Saccharina longicruris and S. latissima, measured as the size of the annual blade, ranged up to sevenfold among sites. The duration of the open-water period, which integrates light and temperature conditions on an annual basis, was the best predictor (relative to summer water temperature) of kelp production along the latitude gradient, explaining up to 92% of the variation in depth extension and 80% of the variation in kelp production. In a decadal time series from a high Arctic site (74 ºN), inter-annual variation in sea ice cover also explained a major part (up to 47%) of the variation in kelp production. Both spatial and temporal data sets thereby support the prediction that northern kelps will play a larger role in the coastal marine ecosystem in a warmer future as the length of the open-water period increases. As kelps increase carbon-flow and habitat diversity, an expansion of kelp forests may exert cascading effects on the coastal Arctic ecosystem. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Leaf anatomical and photosynthetic acclimation to cool temperature and high light in two winter versus two summer annuals.

PubMed

Cohu, Christopher M; Muller, Onno; Adams, William W; Demmig-Adams, Barbara

2014-09-01

Acclimation of foliar features to cool temperature and high light was characterized in winter (Spinacia oleracea L. cv. Giant Nobel; Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynhold Col-0 and ecotypes from Sweden and Italy) versus summer (Helianthus annuus L. cv. Soraya; Cucurbita pepo L. cv. Italian Zucchini Romanesco) annuals. Significant relationships existed among leaf dry mass per area, photosynthesis, leaf thickness and palisade mesophyll thickness. While the acclimatory response of the summer annuals to cool temperature and/or high light levels was limited, the winter annuals increased the number of palisade cell layers, ranging from two layers under moderate light and warm temperature to between four and five layers under cool temperature and high light. A significant relationship was also found between palisade tissue thickness and either cross-sectional area or number of phloem cells (each normalized by vein density) in minor veins among all four species and growth regimes. The two winter annuals, but not the summer annuals, thus exhibited acclimatory adjustments of minor vein phloem to cool temperature and/or high light, with more numerous and larger phloem cells and a higher maximal photosynthesis rate. The upregulation of photosynthesis in winter annuals in response to low growth temperature may thus depend on not only (1) a greater volume of photosynthesizing palisade tissue but also (2) leaf veins containing additional phloem cells and presumably capable of exporting a greater volume of sugars from the leaves to the rest of the plant. © 2014 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.

Temporal changes of soil respiration under different tree species.

PubMed

Akburak, Serdar; Makineci, Ender

2013-04-01

Soil respiration rates were measured monthly (from April 2007 to March 2008) under four adjacent coniferous plantation sites [Oriental spruce (Picea orientalis L.), Austrian pine (Pinus nigra Arnold), Turkish fir (Abies bornmulleriana L.), and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.)] and adjacent natural Sessile oak forest (Quercus petraea L.) in Belgrad Forest-Istanbul/Turkey. Also, soil moisture, soil temperature, and fine root biomass were determined to identify the underlying environmental variables among sites which are most likely causing differences in soil respiration. Mean annual soil moisture was determined to be between 6.3 % and 8.1 %, and mean annual temperature ranged from 13.0°C to 14.2°C under all species. Mean annual fine root biomass changed between 368.09 g/m(2) and 883.71 g/m(2) indicating significant differences among species. Except May 2007, monthly soil respiration rates show significantly difference among species. However, focusing on tree species, differences of mean annual respiration rates did not differ significantly. Mean annual soil respiration ranged from 0.56 to 1.09 g C/m(2)/day. The highest rates of soil respiration reached on autumn months and the lowest rates were determined on summer season. Soil temperature, soil moisture, and fine root biomass explain mean annual soil respiration rates at the highest under Austrian pine (R (2) = 0.562) and the lowest (R (2) = 0.223) under Turkish fir.

Hydrothermal thresholds for seed germination in winter annual forbs from old-field Mediterranean landscapes.

PubMed

Frischie, Stephanie; Fernández-Pascual, Eduardo; Gálvez Ramirez, Cándido; Toorop, Peter; Matías González, Hernández; Jiménez-Alfaro, Borja

2018-05-22

Under Mediterranean climates with dry-hot summers and cool-wet winters, many forbs with potential for habitat restoration are winter annuals, but there is little information about their germination. We performed laboratory germination experiments on 13 ruderal dicots native to Andalusia (southern Spain). We measured the germination of recently harvested seeds from natural populations across nine temperature treatments (from 5 °C to 35 °C, constant and alternate); two storage periods; and eight water stress treatments (from 0 MPa to -1.0 MPa). We thencalculated the hydrothermal thresholds for seed germination. Final germination ranged from 0-100% and results were mixed in response to temperature. Base temperature was below 6 °C, optimal temperature was around 14 °C and the ceiling temperature around 23 °C. For five species, 10 months of storage improved total germination, indicating a dormancy-breaking effect, but the other species did not respond or had their germination reduced. All species were relatively tolerant to water stress, with base water potential ranging from -0.8 MPa to -1.8 MPa. Our results suggest that hydrothermal germination thresholds, rather than physiological dormancy, are the main drivers of germination phenology in annual forbs from Mediterranean semi-dry environments. The germination of these forb species differs from winter annual grasses, but their seeds are all suitable for being stored before restoration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA Great Plains: Part I. Spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.

2016-11-01

Due to their substantial spatio-temporal behavior, long-term quantification and analyses of important hydrological variables are essential for practical applications in water resources planning, evaluating the water use of agricultural crop production and quantifying crop evapotranspiration patterns and irrigation management vs. hydrologic balance relationships. Observed data at over 800 sites across the Great Plains of USA, comprising of 9 states and 2,307,410 km2 of surface area, which is about 30% of the terrestrial area of the USA, were used to quantify and map large-scale and long-term (1968-2013) spatial trends of air temperatures, daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) at monthly, growing season and annual time steps. Air temperatures had a strong north to south increasing trend, with annual average varying from -1 to 24 °C, and growing season average temperature varying from 8 to 30 °C. DTR gradually decreased from western to eastern parts of the region, with a regional annual and growing season averages of 14.25 °C and 14.79 °C, respectively. Precipitation had a gradual shift towards higher magnitudes from west to east, with the average annual and growing season (May-September) precipitation ranging from 163 to 1486 mm and from 98 to 746 mm, respectively. ETo had a southwest-northeast decreasing trend, with regional annual and growing season averages of 1297 mm and 823 mm, respectively. AI increased from west to east, indicating higher humidity (less arid) towards the east, with regional annual and growing season averages of 0.49 and 0.44, respectively. The spatial datasets and maps for these important climate variables can serve as valuable background for climate change and hydrologic studies in the Great Plains region. Through identification of priority areas from the developed maps, efforts of the concerned personnel and agencies and resources can be diverted towards development of holistic strategies to address water supply and demand challenges under changing climate. These strategies can consist of, but not limited to, advancing water, crop and soil management, and genetic improvements and their relationships with the climatic variables on large scales.

Environmental effects on vertebrate species richness: testing the energy, environmental stability and habitat heterogeneity hypotheses.

PubMed

Luo, Zhenhua; Tang, Songhua; Li, Chunwang; Fang, Hongxia; Hu, Huijian; Yang, Ji; Ding, Jingjing; Jiang, Zhigang

2012-01-01

Explaining species richness patterns is a central issue in biogeography and macroecology. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the mechanisms driving biodiversity patterns, but the causes of species richness gradients remain unclear. In this study, we aimed to explain the impacts of energy, environmental stability, and habitat heterogeneity factors on variation of vertebrate species richness (VSR), based on the VSR pattern in China, so as to test the energy hypothesis, the environmental stability hypothesis, and the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis. A dataset was compiled containing the distributions of 2,665 vertebrate species and eleven ecogeographic predictive variables in China. We grouped these variables into categories of energy, environmental stability, and habitat heterogeneity and transformed the data into 100 × 100 km quadrat systems. To test the three hypotheses, AIC-based model selection was carried out between VSR and the variables in each group and correlation analyses were conducted. There was a decreasing VSR gradient from the southeast to the northwest of China. Our results showed that energy explained 67.6% of the VSR variation, with the annual mean temperature as the main factor, which was followed by annual precipitation and NDVI. Environmental stability factors explained 69.1% of the VSR variation and both temperature annual range and precipitation seasonality had important contributions. By contrast, habitat heterogeneity variables explained only 26.3% of the VSR variation. Significantly positive correlations were detected among VSR, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and NDVI, whereas the relationship of VSR and temperature annual range was strongly negative. In addition, other variables showed moderate or ambiguous relations to VSR. The energy hypothesis and the environmental stability hypothesis were supported, whereas little support was found for the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis.

Environmental Effects on Vertebrate Species Richness: Testing the Energy, Environmental Stability and Habitat Heterogeneity Hypotheses

PubMed Central

Luo, Zhenhua; Tang, Songhua; Li, Chunwang; Fang, Hongxia; Hu, Huijian; Yang, Ji; Ding, Jingjing; Jiang, Zhigang

2012-01-01

Background Explaining species richness patterns is a central issue in biogeography and macroecology. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the mechanisms driving biodiversity patterns, but the causes of species richness gradients remain unclear. In this study, we aimed to explain the impacts of energy, environmental stability, and habitat heterogeneity factors on variation of vertebrate species richness (VSR), based on the VSR pattern in China, so as to test the energy hypothesis, the environmental stability hypothesis, and the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis. Methodology/Principal Findings A dataset was compiled containing the distributions of 2,665 vertebrate species and eleven ecogeographic predictive variables in China. We grouped these variables into categories of energy, environmental stability, and habitat heterogeneity and transformed the data into 100×100 km quadrat systems. To test the three hypotheses, AIC-based model selection was carried out between VSR and the variables in each group and correlation analyses were conducted. There was a decreasing VSR gradient from the southeast to the northwest of China. Our results showed that energy explained 67.6% of the VSR variation, with the annual mean temperature as the main factor, which was followed by annual precipitation and NDVI. Environmental stability factors explained 69.1% of the VSR variation and both temperature annual range and precipitation seasonality had important contributions. By contrast, habitat heterogeneity variables explained only 26.3% of the VSR variation. Significantly positive correlations were detected among VSR, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and NDVI, whereas the relationship of VSR and temperature annual range was strongly negative. In addition, other variables showed moderate or ambiguous relations to VSR. Conclusions/Significance The energy hypothesis and the environmental stability hypothesis were supported, whereas little support was found for the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis. PMID:22530038

Periodicity analysis of δ18O in precipitation over Central Europe: Time-frequency considerations of the isotopic 'temperature' effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamalikis, V.; Argiriou, A. A.; Dotsika, E.

2016-03-01

In this paper the periodic patterns of the isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18O) for 22 stations located around Central Europe are investigated through sinusoidal models and wavelet analysis over a 23 years period (1980/01-2002/12). The seasonal distribution of δ18O follows the temporal variability of air temperature providing seasonal amplitudes ranging from 0.94‰ to 4.47‰; the monthly isotopic maximum is observed in July. The isotopic amplitude reflects the geographical dependencies of the isotopic composition of precipitation providing higher values when moving inland. In order to describe the dominant oscillation modes included in δ18O time series, the Morlet Continuous Wavelet Transform is evaluated. The main periodicity is represented at 12-months (annual periodicity) where the wavelet power is mainly concentrated. Stations (i.e. Cuxhaven, Trier, etc.) with limited seasonal isotopic effect provide sparse wavelet power areas at the annual periodicity mode explaining the fact that precipitation has a complex isotopic fingerprint that cannot be examined solely by the seasonality effect. Since temperature is the main contributor of the isotopic variability in mid-latitudes, the isotope-temperature effect is also investigated. The isotope-temperature slope ranges from 0.11‰/°C to 0.47‰/°C with steeper values observed at the southernmost stations of the study area. Bivariate wavelet analysis is applied in order to determine the correlation and the slope of the δ18O - temperature relationship over the time-frequency plane. High coherencies are detected at the annual periodicity mode. The time-frequency slope is calculated at the annual periodicity mode ranging from 0.45‰/°C to 0.83‰/°C with higher values at stations that show a more distinguishable seasonal isotopic behavior. Generally the slope fluctuates around a mean value but in certain cases (sites with low seasonal effect) abrupt slope changes are derived and the slope becomes strongly unstable.

Valley floor climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, Antarctica, 1986-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, P.T.; McKay, C.P.; Clow, G.D.; Dana, G.L.; Fountain, A.G.; Nylen, T.; Lyons, W.B.

2002-01-01

Climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, East Antarctica are presented from a network of seven valley floor automatic meteorological stations during the period 1986 to 2000. Mean annual temperatures ranged from -14.8??C to -30.0??C, depending on the site and period of measurement. Mean annual relative humidity is generally highest near the coast. Mean annual wind speed increases with proximity to the polar plateau. Site-to-site variation in mean annual solar flux and PAR is due to exposure of each station and changes over time are likely related to changes in cloudiness. During the nonsummer months, strong katabatic winds are frequent at some sites and infrequent at others, creating large variation in mean annual temperature owing to the warming effect of the winds. Katabatic wind exposure appears to be controlled to a large degree by the presence of colder air in the region that collects at low points and keeps the warm less dense katabatic flow from the ground. The strong influence of katabatic winds makes prediction of relative mean annual temperature based on geographical position (elevation and distance from the coast) alone, not possible. During the summer months, onshore winds dominate and warm as they progress through the valleys creating a strong linear relationship (r2 = 0.992) of increasing potential temperature with distance from the coast (0.09??C km-1). In contrast to mean annual temperature, summer temperature lends itself quite well to model predictions, and is used to construct a statistical model for predicting summer dry valley temperatures at unmonitored sites. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

Temperature environment for 9975 packages stored in KAC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daugherty, W. L.

Plutonium materials are stored in the K Area Complex (KAC) in shipping packages, typically the 9975 shipping package. In order to estimate realistic degradation rates for components within the shipping package (i.e. the fiberboard overpack and O-ring seals), it is necessary to understand actual facility temperatures, which can vary daily and seasonally. Relevant facility temperature data available from several periods throughout its operating history have been reviewed. The annual average temperature within the Crane Maintenance Area has ranged from approximately 70 to 74 °F, although there is significant seasonal variation and lesser variation among different locations within the facility. Themore » long-term average degradation rate for 9975 package components is very close to that expected if the component were to remain continually at the annual average temperature. This result remains valid for a wide range of activation energies (which describes the variation in degradation rate as the temperature changes), if the activation energy remains constant over the seasonal range of component temperatures. It is recommended that component degradation analyses and service life estimates incorporate these results. Specifically, it is proposed that future analyses assume an average facility ambient air temperature of 94 °F. This value is bounding for all packages, and includes margin for several factors such as increased temperatures within the storage arrays, the addition of more packages in the future, and future operational changes.« less

Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

PubMed

Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

2015-07-01

Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days <27.5°C. For example, a day with a mean temperature of 25.0°C contributes 2.5 cold degree-days to the annual total. Generalized additive models were used to estimate the association between annual hot and cold degree-days and the ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Temperature and Soil Moisture Regimes In and Adjacent to the Fernow Experimental Forest

Treesearch

Jerry T. Crews; Linton Wright

2000-01-01

The effects of elevation, aspect, ambient air temperature, and soil moisture on soil temperature were examined in and adjacent to the Fernow Experimental Forest in West Virginia to determine the extent of frigid soils. The mean annual temperature of frigid soils ranges from 1? to 7?C at a depth of 50 cm; the difference between mean winter and mean summer temperatures...

Soil moisture influenced the interannual variation in temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon mineralization in the Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Guo, S.; Zhao, M.; Du, L.; Li, R.; Jiang, J.; Wang, R.; Li, N.

2015-01-01

Temperature sensitivity of SOC mineralization (Q10) determines how strong the feedback from global warming may be on the atmospheric CO2 concentration, thus understanding the factors influencing the interannual variation in Q10 is important to accurately estimate the local soil carbon cycle. In situ SOC mineralization was measured using an automated CO2 flux system (Li-8100) in long-term bare fallow soil in the Loess Plateau (35° 12' N, 107° 40' E) in Changwu, Shaanxi, China form 2008 to 2013. The results showed that the annual cumulative SOC mineralization ranged from 226 to 298 g C m-2 y-1 (mean =253 g C m-2 y-1; CV =13%), annual Q10 ranged from 1.48 to 1.94 (mean =1.70; CV =10%), and annual soil moisture content ranged from 38.6 to 50.7% WFPS (mean =43.8% WFPS; CV =11%), which were mainly affected by the frequency and distribution of precipitation. Annual Q10 showed a negative quadratic correlation with soil moisture. In conclusion, understanding of the relationships between interannual variation in Q10 of SOC mineralization, soil moisture and precipitation is important to accurately estimate the local carbon cycle, especially under the changing climate.

Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission.

PubMed

Huber, John H; Childs, Marissa L; Caldwell, Jamie M; Mordecai, Erin A

2018-05-01

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal variation in temperature, the model provides a baseline for mechanistically understanding environmental suitability for virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Overlaying the impact of human activities and socioeconomic factors onto this mechanistic temperature-dependent framework is critical for understanding likelihood and magnitude of outbreaks.

Tropical behavior of mesospheric ozone as observed by SMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aikin, A. C.; Kendig, D. J.

1992-01-01

The seasonal behavior of low latitude mesospheric ozone, as observed by the SMM satellite solar occultation experiment, is detailed for the 1985-1989 period. Annual as well as semi-annual waves are observed in the 50-70 km altitude region. In the latitude range of +/- 30 deg the ozone phase and amplitude are functions of temperature and seasonal changes in solar flux. Temperature is the controlling factor for the equatorial region and seasonal changes in solar flux become more dominant at latitudes outside the equatorial zone (greater than +/- 15 deg). There is a hemispheric asymmetry in the ozone annual wave in the 20-30 deg region, with Northern Hemispheric ozone having a larger amplitude than Southern Hemispheric ozone.

Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, Wenping; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Xianglan

2011-10-13

Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located atmore » latitudes ranging from ~3°S to ~70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual« less

Cape Canaveral, Florida range reference atmosphere 0-70 km altitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tingle, A. (Editor)

1983-01-01

The RRA contains tabulations for monthly and annual means, standard deviations, skewness coefficients for wind speed, pressure temperature, density, water vapor pressure, virtual temperature, dew-point temperature, and the means and standard deviations for the zonal and meridional wind components and the linear (product moment) correlation coefficient between the wind components. These statistical parameters are tabulated at the station elevation and at 1 km intervals from sea level to 30 km and at 2 km intervals from 30 to 90 km altitude. The wind statistics are given at approximately 10 m above the station elevations and at altitudes with respect to mean sea level thereafter. For those range sites without rocketsonde measurements, the RRAs terminate at 30 km altitude or they are extended, if required, when rocketsonde data from a nearby launch site are available. There are four sets of tables for each of the 12 monthly reference periods and the annual reference period.

Seasonal migrations, body temperature fluctuations, and infection dynamics in adult amphibians.

PubMed

Daversa, David R; Monsalve-Carcaño, Camino; Carrascal, Luis M; Bosch, Jaime

2018-01-01

Risks of parasitism vary over time, with infection prevalence often fluctuating with seasonal changes in the annual cycle. Identifying the biological mechanisms underlying seasonality in infection can enable better prediction and prevention of future infection peaks. Obtaining longitudinal data on individual infections and traits across seasons throughout the annual cycle is perhaps the most effective means of achieving this aim, yet few studies have obtained such information for wildlife. Here, we tracked spiny common toads ( Bufo spinosus ) within and across annual cycles to assess seasonal variation in movement, body temperatures and infection from the fungal parasite, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) . Across annual cycles, toads did not consistently sustain infections but instead gained and lost infections from year to year. Radio-tracking showed that infected toads lose infections during post-breeding migrations, and no toads contracted infection following migration, which may be one explanation for the inter-annual variability in Bd infections. We also found pronounced seasonal variation in toad body temperatures. Body temperatures approached 0 °C during winter hibernation but remained largely within the thermal tolerance range of Bd . These findings provide direct documentation of migratory recovery (i.e., loss of infection during migration) and escape in a wild population. The body temperature reductions that we observed during hibernation warrant further consideration into the role that this period plays in seasonal Bd dynamics.

Seasonal migrations, body temperature fluctuations, and infection dynamics in adult amphibians

PubMed Central

Daversa, David R.; Monsalve-Carcaño, Camino; Carrascal, Luis M.

2018-01-01

Risks of parasitism vary over time, with infection prevalence often fluctuating with seasonal changes in the annual cycle. Identifying the biological mechanisms underlying seasonality in infection can enable better prediction and prevention of future infection peaks. Obtaining longitudinal data on individual infections and traits across seasons throughout the annual cycle is perhaps the most effective means of achieving this aim, yet few studies have obtained such information for wildlife. Here, we tracked spiny common toads (Bufo spinosus) within and across annual cycles to assess seasonal variation in movement, body temperatures and infection from the fungal parasite, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Across annual cycles, toads did not consistently sustain infections but instead gained and lost infections from year to year. Radio-tracking showed that infected toads lose infections during post-breeding migrations, and no toads contracted infection following migration, which may be one explanation for the inter-annual variability in Bd infections. We also found pronounced seasonal variation in toad body temperatures. Body temperatures approached 0 °C during winter hibernation but remained largely within the thermal tolerance range of Bd. These findings provide direct documentation of migratory recovery (i.e., loss of infection during migration) and escape in a wild population. The body temperature reductions that we observed during hibernation warrant further consideration into the role that this period plays in seasonal Bd dynamics. PMID:29761041

Decadal trend of precipitation and temperature patterns and impacts on snow-related variables in a semiarid region, Sierra Nevada, Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2016-04-01

In the current context of global change, mountainous areas constitute singular locations in which these changes can be traced. Early detection of significant shifts of snow state variables in semiarid regions can help assess climate variability impacts and future snow dynamics in northern latitudes. The Sierra Nevada mountain range, in southern Spain, is a representative example of snow areas in Mediterranean-climate regions and both monitoring and modelling efforts have been performed to assess this variability and its significant scales. This work presents a decadal trend analysis throughout the 50-yr period 1960-2010 performed on some snow-related variables over Sierra Nevada, in Spain, which is included in the global climate change observatories network around the world. The study area comprises 4583 km2 distributed throughout the five head basins influenced by these mountains, with altitude values ranging from 140 to 3479 m.a.s.l., just 40 km from the Mediterranean coastline. Meteorological variables obtained from 44 weather stations from the National Meteorological Agency were studied and further used as input to the distributed hydrological model WiMMed (Polo et al., 2010), operational at the study area, to obtain selected snow variables. Decadal trends were obtained, together with their statistical significance, over the following variables, averaged over the whole study area: (1) annual precipitation; (2) annual snowfall; annual (3) mean, (4) maximum and (5) minimum daily temperature; annual (6) mean and (7) maximum daily fraction of snow covered areas; (8) annual number of days with snow cover; (9) mean and (10) maximum daily snow water equivalent; (11) annual number of extreme precipitation events; and (12) mean intensity of the annual extreme precipitation events. These variables were also studied over each of the five regions associated to each basin in the range. Globally decreasing decadal trends were obtained for all the meteorological variables, with the exception of the average annual mean and maximum daily temperature. In the case of the snow-related variables, no significant trends are observed at this time scale; nonetheless, a global decreasing rate is predominant in most of the variables. The torrential events are more frequent in the last decades of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. This study constitutes a first sound analysis of the long-term observed trends of the snow regime in this area under the context of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation regimes. The results highlight the complexity of non-linearity in environmental processes in Mediterranean regions, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area.

Map showing length of freeze-free season in the Salina quadrangle, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Covington, Harry R.

1972-01-01

In general, long freeze-free periods occur at low elevations, and short freeze-free periods occur at high elevations. But some valley floors have shorter freeze-free seasons than the glancing foothills because air cooled at high elevations flows downward and is trapped in the valleys. This temperature pattern occurs in the western part of the quadrangle in Rabbit Valley, Grass Valley, and the Sevier River Valley near Salina.Because year-round weather stations are sparse in Utah, a special technique for estimating length of freeze-free season was developed by Dr. Gaylen L. Ashcroft, Assistant Professor of Climatology, Utah State University, and E. Arlo Richardson, State Climatologist, U.S. Weather Bureau, based on average annual temperature, average annual temperature range, average daily temperature range, and average july maximum temperature. This technique was used in preparation of the map showing “Length of 32°F freeze-free season for Utah,” figure 23 in Hydrologic Atlas of Utah (Utah State University and Utah Division of Water Resources, 1968), from which the data for this map were taken.

Soil moisture influence on the interannual variation in temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon mineralization in the Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y. J.; Guo, S. L.; Zhao, M.; Du, L. L.; Li, R. J.; Jiang, J. S.; Wang, R.; Li, N. N.

2015-06-01

Temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralization (i.e., Q10) determines how strong the feedback from global warming may be on the atmospheric CO2 concentration; thus, understanding the factors influencing the interannual variation in Q10 is important for accurately estimating local soil carbon cycle. In situ SOC mineralization rate was measured using an automated CO2 flux system (Li-8100) in long-term bare fallow soil in the Loess Plateau (35°12' N, 107°40' E) in Changwu, Shaanxi, China from 2008 to 2013. The results showed that the annual cumulative SOC mineralization ranged from 226 to 298 g C m-2 yr-1, with a mean of 253 g C m-2 yr-1 and a coefficient of variation (CV) of 13%, annual Q10 ranged from 1.48 to 1.94, with a mean of 1.70 and a CV of 10%, and annual soil moisture content ranged from 38.6 to 50.7% soil water-filled pore space (WFPS), with a mean of 43.8% WFPS and a CV of 11%, which were mainly affected by the frequency and distribution of precipitation. Annual Q10 showed a quadratic correlation with annual mean soil moisture content. In conclusion, understanding of the relationships between interannual variation in Q10, soil moisture, and precipitation are important to accurately estimate the local carbon cycle, especially under the changing climate.

Trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatan, Abayomi A.; Osayomi, Tolulope; Akande, Samuel O.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Gutowski, William J.

2018-02-01

In recent times, Ibadan has been experiencing an increase in mean temperature which appears to be linked to anthropogenic global warming. Previous studies have indicated that the warming may be accompanied by changes in extreme events. This study examined trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan during 1971-2012 at annual and seasonal scales using the high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth-century dataset (ERA-20C) at 15 grid points. Magnitudes of linear trends in mean and extreme temperatures and their statistical significance were calculated using ordinary least squares and Mann-Kendall rank statistic tests. The results show that Ibadan has witnessed an increase in annual and seasonal mean minimum temperatures. The annual mean maximum temperature exhibited a non-significant decline in most parts of Ibadan. While trends in cold extremes at annual scale show warming, trends in coldest night show greater warming than in coldest day. At the seasonal scale, we found that Ibadan experienced a mix of positive and negative trends in absolute extreme temperature indices. However, cold extremes show the largest trend magnitudes, with trends in coldest night showing the greatest warming. The results compare well with those obtained from a limited number of stations. This study should inform decision-makers and urban planners about the ongoing warming in Ibadan.

Controls on net carbon accumulation in North American peatlands: Insights from 210Pb dated cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieder, R.; Scott, K. D.; Vile, M. A.; Vitt, D. H.; Burke-Scoll, M.

2012-12-01

Northern peatlands cover only 3-4 % of the Earth's land surface area, yet store hugh quantities (250-450 Pg) of carbon as peat. These peatlands generally are believed to function as net sinks for atmospheric CO2 today, with C fixation by net primary production at the peat surface exceeding C losses by organic matter mineralization throughout the peat column. Various aspects of peatland structure and function are influenced by a variety of factors, including local climatic conditions and atmospheric deposition of N and S. Here we examine continental-scale patterns in recent net C accumulation in peatlands across North America, combining the published data for eastern Canada from Moore et al. (2004, Global Change Biology) and Turunen et al. (2004, Global Biogeochemical Cycles) with our data from boreal sites in western Canada (Alberta) and from temperate sites in the U.S. Across these sites, mean annual, January, and July temperatures ranged from 0.6 to 9.1, -20.5 to -1.6, and 11.3 to 20.8 oC, respecticely, mean annual precipitation, rainfall, and snowfall ranged from 406 to 1480, 289 to 1156 and 112 to 415 mm, respectively, growing degree days (above 5 oC) ranged from 947 to 4467, and annual wet N and S deposition ranged from 0.9 to 8.1 and 0.4 to 13.4 kg/ha/yr. For 67 cores, net C accumulation in peat over the past 50 years was determined by 210Pb dating and ranged from 492 to 1781 kg/ha/yr. Net C accumulation (kg/ha/yr) was positively correlated with mean annual precipitation (p = 0.0129), mean annual snowfall (p = 0.0010) and wet deposition of both N (p < 0.0001) and S (p = 0.0003). However, both the climatic and wet deposition variables exhibit similar gradients across North America, and hence are coufounded. Stepwise regression revealed that 53% of the overall variation in net C accumulation could be explained by only two variables, wet N deposition (p < 0.0001; R2 = 0.35) and mean annual temperature (p = 0.0106; R2 = 0.07), with the regression model of net C accumulation (kg/ha/yr) = 913 + (950 x wet N deposition) - (46 x mean annual temperature). The effects of ongoing climate change, notably warming and changing regional patterns of atmospheric N deposition, may have ramifications for peatland carbon cycling.

Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi bin; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2018-06-01

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960-2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17-0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17-0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (- 0.15 to - 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

Estimation of global radiation for Sri Lanka

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samuel, T.D.M.A.

1991-01-01

There are several formulae that relate global radiation to other climatological parameters such as sunshine hours, relative humidity, maximum temperature, and average temperature. In this paper a generally accepted modified form of the formula first introduced by Angstrom is used. It relates global radiation to hours of sunshine that have been measured for several years in many of the meteorological stations in Sri Lanka. The annual average of the ratio of the hours of sunshine to the length of the day, i.e., annual average of (S/Z), is found to vary considerably and to lie in the range 0.42-0.66. Fre're etmore » al., have found, using data from many parts of the world, a general graphical representation for the variation of a and b with annual average (S/Z) lying in the range 0.28 to 0.75. This variation of a and b can be expressed as quadratic functions are modified and used to determine a and b values for stations in Sri Lanka.« less

Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

PubMed

Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

2015-01-01

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard.

PubMed

Dayananda, Buddhi; Gray, Sarah; Pike, David; Webb, Jonathan K

2016-07-01

Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A 400-Year Ice Core Melt Layer Record of Summertime Warming in the Alaska Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winski, Dominic; Osterberg, Erich; Kreutz, Karl; Wake, Cameron; Ferris, David; Campbell, Seth; Baum, Mark; Bailey, Adriana; Birkel, Sean; Introne, Douglas; Handley, Mike

2018-04-01

Warming in high-elevation regions has societally important impacts on glacier mass balance, water resources, and sensitive alpine ecosystems, yet very few high-elevation temperature records exist from the middle or high latitudes. While a variety of paleoproxy records provide critical temperature records from low elevations over recent centuries, melt layers preserved in alpine glaciers present an opportunity to develop calibrated, annually resolved temperature records from high elevations. Here we present a 400-year temperature proxy record based on the melt layer stratigraphy of two ice cores collected from Mt. Hunter in Denali National Park in the central Alaska Range. The ice core record shows a sixtyfold increase in water equivalent total annual melt between the preindustrial period (before 1850 Common Era) and present day. We calibrate the melt record to summer temperatures based on weather station data from the ice core drill site and find that the increase in melt production represents a summer warming rate of at least 1.92 ± 0.31°C per century during the last 100 years, exceeding rates of temperature increase at most low-elevation sites in Alaska. The Mt. Hunter melt layer record is significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific through a Rossby wave-like pattern that enhances high temperatures over Alaska. Our results show that rapid alpine warming has taken place in the Alaska Range for at least a century and that conditions in the tropical oceans contribute to this warming.

Lake Roosevelt Fisheries Evaluation Program; Limnological and Fisheries Monitoring, Annual Report 2000.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Chuck; Scofield, Ben; Pavlik, Deanne

2003-03-01

A slightly dryer than normal year yielded flows in Lake Roosevelt that were essentially equal to the past ten year average. Annual mean inflow and outflow were 3,160.3 m3/s and 3,063.4 m3/s respectively. Mean reservoir elevation was 387.2 m above sea level at the Grand Coulee Dam forebay. The forebay elevation was below the mean elevation for a total of 168 days. During the first half of the 2000 forebay elevation changed at a rate of 0.121 m/d and during the last half changed at a rate of 0.208 m/d. The higher rate of elevation change earlier in the yearmore » is due to the drawdown to accommodate spring runoff. Mean annual water retention time was 40 days. Annual mean total dissolved gas was 108%. Total dissolved gas was greatest at upriver locations (110% = US/Canada Border annual mean) and decreased moving toward Grand Coulee Dam (106% = Grand Coulee Dam Forebay annual mean). Total dissolved gas was greatest in May (122% reservoir wide monthly mean). Gas bubble trauma was observed in 16 fish primarily largescale suckers and was low in severity. Reservoir wide mean temperatures were greatest in August (19.5 C) and lowest in January (5.5 C). The Spokane River and Sanpoil River Arms experienced higher temperatures than the mainstem reservoir. Brief stratification was observed at the Sanpoil River shore location in July. Warm water temperatures in the Spokane Arm contributed to low dissolved oxygen concentrations in August (2.6 mg/L at 33 m). However, decomposition of summer algal biomass was likely the main cause of depressed dissolved oxygen concentrations. Otherwise, dissolved oxygen profiles were relatively uniform throughout the water column across other sampling locations. Annual mean Secchi depth throughout the reservoir was 5.7 m. Nutrient concentrations were generally low, however, annual mean total phosphorus (0.016 mg/L) was in the mesotrophic range. Annual mean total nitrogen was in the meso-oligotrophic range. Total nitrogen to total phosphorus ratios were large (31:1 annual mean) likely indicating phosphorus limitations to phytoplankton.« less

Sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability: insights from two Indian agro-ecoregions.

PubMed

Mondal, Pinki; Jain, Meha; DeFries, Ruth S; Galford, Gillian L; Small, Christopher

2015-01-15

Crop productivity in India varies greatly with inter-annual climate variability and is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall and temperature. The sensitivity of yields to future climate variability varies with crop type, access to irrigation and other biophysical and socio-economic factors. To better understand sensitivities to future climate, this study focuses on agro-ecological subregions in Central and Western India that span a range of crops, irrigation, biophysical conditions and socioeconomic characteristics. Climate variability is derived from remotely-sensed data products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM - precipitation) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS - temperature). We examined green-leaf phenologies as proxy for crop productivity using the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2000 to 2012. Using both monsoon and winter growing seasons, we assessed phenological sensitivity to inter-annual variability in precipitation and temperature patterns. Inter-annual EVI phenology anomalies ranged from -25% to 25%, with some highly anomalous values up to 200%. Monsoon crop phenology in the Central India site is highly sensitive to climate, especially the timing of the start and end of the monsoon and intensity of precipitation. In the Western India site, monsoon crop phenology is less sensitive to precipitation variability, yet shows considerable fluctuations in monsoon crop productivity across the years. Temperature is critically important for winter productivity across a range of crop and management types, such that irrigation might not provide a sufficient buffer against projected temperature increases. Better access to weather information and usage of climate-resilient crop types would play pivotal role in maintaining future productivity. Effective strategies to adapt to projected climate changes in the coming decades would also need to be tailored to regional biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Note on the Spatio Temporal Variations in the Temperature and Relative Humidity over Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eludoyin, A. O.; Akinbode, O. M.; Archibong, E. O.

2007-07-01

This study was carried out in one of the Administrative State Capitals in the southwestern part of Nigeria. Its aim is to serve as a baseline data for highlighting the effect of spatial distribution of settlements, population, and socioeconomic activities on urban air temperature and relative humidity. The main objective of the study is to assess the impact of urban growth on the microclimate of the administrative city. Temperature and relative humidity data from 1992 to 2001 were obtained from the three existing meteorological stations in Akure, the Administrative Capital of Ondo State, Nigeria, namely the Federal Ministry of Aviation, Akure Airport station (FMA), Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA) and the Federal School of Agriculture (SOA). Air temperature and relative humidity measurements along primary roads and in the built up areas were obtained from seventeen stations, using sling psychrometer. The data were subsequently analysed for spatial and temporal variations. The results obtained indicated that while the maximum, average and minimum temperatures showed significant annual variations, the spatial variations among the existing meteorological stations were not significant. The city is characterized by increasing annual mean temperatures whose maximum was significantly higher than that of Ondo town — another important town within the state. The annual mean temperatures ranged between 26.2°C and 30.4°C. Minimum and maximum temperatures varied from 12.3°C to 26°C and 22.5°C to 39.6°C, respectively while the relative humidity ranged between 27.5% and 98.2%. Urban `heat island' intensity was exhibited around central business district of the Oba market. 2007 American Institute of Physics

Environmental influences on the nesting phenology and productivity of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welch, Brandi C.; Boal, Clint W.; Skipper, Ben R.

2017-01-01

Identifying sources of annual variation in the reproductive success of a species may provide valuable insights into how the species may be affected by future environmental or climatic conditions. We examined annual variation in the nesting phenology, productivity, and apparent nest success of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis), a species common in urban areas in the southern Great Plains, from May through August. We monitored 498 Mississippi Kite nesting attempts in Lubbock, Texas, USA, between 2004 and 2015, from which we modeled daily survival rate as a function of local weather conditions, drought severity, and the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. We observed significant annual variation in median incubation initiation date (range = May 20 to June 5), the probability of nest success (range = 0.31–0.90), and productivity (range = 0.25–1.00 fledglings per nest). Our models of daily survival rate suggested that higher daily temperatures, severe storm events, extreme drought conditions, and La Niña events negatively influenced nest survival. These results suggest that increasing storm frequency and higher temperatures associated with climate change are likely to decrease the nesting success of Mississippi Kites in the southern Great Plains.

Temperature and water-quality conditions of the Patuxent River estuary, Maryland, January 1966 through December 1967

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cory, Robert L.; Nauman, Jon W.

1970-01-01

The effect of power plant cooling water in raising natural water temperatures at a location near the power plant on the Patuxent River estuary is clearly evident from thermograph records. Surface temperature at a station 333 m (1,000 ft) downstream from the discharge canal was raised an average of about 4 C, and at times by as much as 8 C. Temperature rises were greatest during the winter. Infrared imagery showed that elevated surface temperatures could be detected about 5.5 km (3 nautical miles) upstream at flood tide. Temperature profiles obtained from airborne radiation equipment revealed a complicated surface temperature pattern and also showed the effects of density differences and wind action on the steam-electric station (S.E.S.) effluent plume. Mean annual salinity for a 5-year period (1963–1967) was highest in 1966, about 12.3 ‰, and lowest in 1967, about 9.9‰. Dissolved oxygen values for 1966–1967 ranged from 3.2 to 15.6 mg/l, and saturation ranged from 55 to 152%. Turbidity levels were inversely related to salinity, with the highest annual, mean of 28 JCU (Jackson Candle Units) occurring in 1967, the lowest salinity year. The extreme tide range was 2.1 m (6.7 ft); mean water levels at the Patuxent Bridge were highest in summer and lowest in winter. Water stages are more affected by wind speed and direction than by flow in the river.

[Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia under climate change].

PubMed

Yang, Xia; Zheng, Jiang-Hua; Mu, Chen; Lin, Jun

2017-02-01

Specific information on geographic distribution of a species is important for its conservation. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia, which is a plant used in traditional Uighur medicine, and predict how climate change would affect its geographic range. The potential geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under the current conditions in China was simulated with MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 42 locations and 19 climatic variables. The future distributions of A. sparsifolia were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).The result showed that mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual mean temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the temperature annual range were the seven climatic factors influencing the geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under current climate, the suitable habitats are mainly located in the Xinjiang, in the middle and north of Gansu, in the west of Neimeng, in the north of Nei Monggol. From 2050 to 2070, the model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats of A. sparsifolia would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and scenarios of RCP8.5 on the whole. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change On Groundwater Recharge and Streamflow In A Central European Low Mountain Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckhardt, K.; Ulbrich, U.

General Circulation Model simulations indicate a significant rise of temperature and changes in precipitation over Europe as part of the anthropogenic climate change. In this study, the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range catchment are investigated using a concep- tual ecohydrologic model. Two climate change scenarios are considered, one with low and one with high climate sensitivity. The changes in temperature and precipitation associated with these projections are taken from multi-model estimates and enter the hydrologic model assuming a sinusodial annual cycle of temperature and precipitation changes. The resulting changes in annual mean groundwater recharge and streamflow are rather small, as increased atmospheric CO2 levels reduce stomatal conductance thus counteracting the increase of potential evapotranspiration induced by rising tem- peratures. There are, however, more pronounced changes associated with the mean annual cycle of groundwater recharge and streamflow. Snowmelt at the beginning of spring is reduced. Instead, runoff and hence flood risk in winter increase. In summer, groundwater recharge and streamflow are reduced by up to 50%. This could have neg- ative consequences for water quality, groundwater withdrawals and energy production by water power. Plant growth will be stimulated by the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Due to the temperature rise, the growing season will begin earlier in the year. However, the risk of desiccation injuries increases as well.

Long-term trends in shortgrass steppe vegetation during a 21-year period of increasing temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alward, R.D.; Milchunas, D.G.; Detling, J.K.

Long-term weather records from the Central Plains Experimental Range revealed a general warming trend in average annual temperatures from 1971 through 1991. This was largely the result of a significant increase in mean annual minimum temperature (T{sub min}). Permanently marked vegetation quadrants were monitored for much of this same period. We constructed linear correlational models to assess relationships of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation with plant densities and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) within a grazing exclosure. Response variables correlated with T{sub min} included: (i) tiller densities of the dominant grass, Bouteloua gracilis, and other warm season grasses, (ii)more » forb densities and ANPP, and (iii) total ANPP. Responses correlated with T{sub max} included: (i) total basal cover and (ii) densities and ANPP of several species. Plant species diversity was correlated with spring precipitation. Some species responded to the interactive effects of spring temperatures and precipitation. This investigation suggests that shortgrass steppe vegetation may be sensitive to climate change and supports predictions that asymmetric changes in diurnal temperatures may be an important component of climate change.« less

Ecological setting of the Wind River old-growth forest.

Treesearch

David C. Shaw; Jerry F. Franklin; Ken Bible; Jeffrey Klopatek; Elizabeth Freeman; Sarah Greene; Geoffrey G. Parker

2004-01-01

The Wind River old-growth forest, in the southern Cascade Range of Washington State, is a cool (average annual temperature, 8.7°C), moist (average annual precipitation, 2223 mm), 500-year-old Douglas-fir-western hemlock forest of moderate to low productivity at 371-m elevation on a less than 10% slope. There is a seasonal snowpack (November-March), and rain-on-snow and...

Temperature calibration of amino acid racemization: age implications for the Yuha skeleton

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bischoff, J.L.; Childers, W.M.

1979-01-01

D/L of aspartic acid ranged from 0.52 to 0.56 for femur samples of the Yuha skeleton. Subsurface temperature measurements made at the burial site indicate average annual temperature is 18??C and diagenetic temperature is 21.6??C. These data and a relation derived for the dependence of the aspartic acid rate constant on diagenetic temperature indicate an age of 23,600. The result is consistent with 14C and 230Th dating of calcrete found coating the bones. ?? 1979.

Impacts of precipitation and temperature trends on different time scales on the water cycle and water resource availability in mountainous Mediterranean catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2017-04-01

Climatology trends, precipitation and temperature variations condition the hydrological evolution of the river flow response at basin and sub-basin scales. The link between both climate and flow trends is crucial in mountainous areas, where small variations in temperature can produce significant impacts on precipitation (occurrence as rainfall or snowfall), snowmelt and evaporation, and consequently very different flow signatures. This importance is greater in semiarid regions, where the high variability of the climatic annual and seasonal regimes usually amplifies this impact on river flow. The Sierra Nevada National Park (Southern Spain), with altitudes ranging from 2000 to 3500 m.a.s.l., is part of the global climate change observatories network and a clear example of snow regions in a semiarid environment. This mountain range is head of different catchments, being the Guadalfeo River Basin one of the most influenced by the snow regime. This study shows the observed 55-year (1961-2015) trends of annual precipitation and daily mean temperature, and the associated impacts on snowfall and snow persistence, and the resulting trend of the annual river flow in the Guadalfeo River Basin (Southern Spain), a semiarid abrupt mountainous area (up to 3450 m a.s.l.) facing the Mediterranean Sea where the Alpine and Mediterranean climates coexist in a domain highly influenced by the snow regime, and a significant seasonality in the flow regime. The annual precipitation and annual daily mean temperature experimented a decreasing trend of 2.05 mm/year and an increasing trend of 0.037 °C/year, respectively, during the study period, with a high variability on a decadal basis. However, the torrential precipitation events are more frequent in the last few years of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. The estimated annual snowfall trend shows a decreasing trend of 0.24 mm/year, associated to the decrease of precipitation rather than to temperature increase. From the analyses of river flow observations and hydrological modelling, these trends result in an estimated decreasing annual trend of the mean river inflow to reservoirs of 0.091 m3/s, which is equivalent to a mean loss of 2.87 hm3/year during the study period. Nonetheless, these results are associated to a high variability of both extreme values and the annual and decadal values. Moreover, the decrease of the annual inflow is approximately a 25% higher than the loss of precipitation, due to the impact on the different water fluxes from the snowpack associated to the enhanced torrential behaviour of both snowfall/rainfall occurrence and snow persistence. The results show the complexity of hydrological processes in Mediterranean regions, especially under the snow influence, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area, with a decrease of the available water resource volume in the medium and long term. However, on an annual basis, years with an intense snowfall regime but mild and longer dry periods result in a significant increase of the annual river flow and water storage. Reservoir operation criteria and water allocation should undergo a revision based on hydrological modelling of the snow regions and scenario analysis.

Annual and seasonal distribution of day and night Land Surface Temperature trend over Greece.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmi, V.; Gemitzi, A.; Eleftheriou, D.; Kalea, A.; Kalmintzis, G.; Kiachidis, K.; Koumadoraki, P.; Mpantasis, C.; Spathara, M. E.; Tsolaki, A.; Tzampazidou, M. I.

2017-12-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging research topics during the last few decades, as temperature rise has already posed a significant impact on earth's functions affecting thus all life of the planet. The present study investigates the distribution of day and night Land Surface Temperature (LST) trends over Greece, a country in Mediterranean area which is identified as one of the main ``hot-spots" of climate change projections. Remotely sensed LST data were obtained from MODIS sensor in the form of 8-day composites of day and night values at a resolution of 1km for a 17-year period, i.e. from 2000 to 2017. Spatial aggregates of 10km x 10km were computed and the annual and seasonal temporal trends were determined for each one of those sub-areas. Results showed that annual trends of daily LST in the majority of areas demonstrated decrease ranging from -1*10-2 oC to -1.3*10-3 oC, with some sporadic parts showing a slight increase. A totally different outcome is observed in the fate of night LST, with all areas over Greece demonstrating increasing annual trends ranging from 4.6 * 10-5 oC to 3.1 * 10-3 oC, with highest values in the South-East parts of the country. Seasonal trends in day and night LST showed the same pattern, i.e., a general decrease in the day LST and a definite increase in night. An interesting finding is the increase in winter LST trends observed both for day and night LST, indicating that the absolute minimum annual LST observed during winter in Greece increases. Our results also indicate that the difference between the day and night LST is decreasing.

Reduction of the Livestock Ammonia Emission under the Changing Temperature during the Initial Manure Nitrogen Biomineralization

PubMed Central

Bagdonienė, Indrė; Baležentienė, Ligita

2013-01-01

Experimental data were applied for the modelling optimal cowshed temperature environment in laboratory test bench by a mass-flow method. The principal factor affecting exponent growth of ammonia emission was increasing air and manure surface temperature. With the manure temperature increasing from 4°C to 30°C, growth in the ammonia emission grew fourfold, that is, from 102 to 430 mg m−2h−1. Especial risk emerges when temperature exceeds 20°C: an increase in temperature of 1°C contributes to the intensity of ammonia emission by 17 mg m−2h−1. The temperatures of air and manure surface as well as those of its layers are important when analysing emission processes from manure. Indeed, it affects the processes occurring on the manure surface, namely, dehydration and crust formation. To reduce ammonia emission from cowshed, it is important to optimize the inner temperature control and to manage air circulation, especially at higher temperatures, preventing the warm ambient air from blowing direct to manure. Decrease in mean annual temperature of 1°C would reduce the annual ammonia emission by some 5.0%. The air temperature range varied between −15°C and 30°C in barns. The highest mean annual temperature (14.6°C) and ammonia emission (218 mg m−2h−1) were observed in the semideep cowshed. PMID:24453912

Species composition and forest structure explain the temperature sensitivity patterns of productivity in temperate forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, Friedrich J.; May, Felix; Huth, Andreas

2018-03-01

Rising temperatures due to climate change influence the wood production of forests. Observations show that some temperate forests increase their productivity, whereas others reduce their productivity. This study focuses on how species composition and forest structure properties influence the temperature sensitivity of aboveground wood production (AWP). It further investigates which forests will increase their productivity the most with rising temperatures. We described forest structure by leaf area index, forest height and tree height heterogeneity. Species composition was described by a functional diversity index (Rao's Q) and a species distribution index (ΩAWP). ΩAWP quantified how well species are distributed over the different forest layers with regard to AWP. We analysed 370 170 forest stands generated with a forest gap model. These forest stands covered a wide range of possible forest types. For each stand, we estimated annual aboveground wood production and performed a climate sensitivity analysis based on 320 different climate time series (of 1-year length). The scenarios differed in mean annual temperature and annual temperature amplitude. Temperature sensitivity of wood production was quantified as the relative change in productivity resulting from a 1 °C rise in mean annual temperature or annual temperature amplitude. Increasing ΩAWP positively influenced both temperature sensitivity indices of forest, whereas forest height showed a bell-shaped relationship with both indices. Further, we found forests in each successional stage that are positively affected by temperature rise. For such forests, large ΩAWP values were important. In the case of young forests, low functional diversity and small tree height heterogeneity were associated with a positive effect of temperature on wood production. During later successional stages, higher species diversity and larger tree height heterogeneity were an advantage. To achieve such a development, one could plant below the closed canopy of even-aged, pioneer trees a climax-species-rich understorey that will build the canopy of the mature forest. This study highlights that forest structure and species composition are both relevant for understanding the temperature sensitivity of wood production.

CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration across dryland ecosystems of southwestern North America.

PubMed

Biederman, Joel A; Scott, Russell L; Bell, Tom W; Bowling, David R; Dore, Sabina; Garatuza-Payan, Jaime; Kolb, Thomas E; Krishnan, Praveena; Krofcheck, Dan J; Litvak, Marcy E; Maurer, Gregory E; Meyers, Tilden P; Oechel, Walter C; Papuga, Shirley A; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E; Rodriguez, Julio C; Smith, William K; Vargas, Rodrigo; Watts, Christopher J; Yepez, Enrico A; Goulden, Michael L

2017-10-01

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO 2 sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO 2 exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data from 25 sites in the water-limited Southwest region of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100-1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2-25°C, and records of 3-10 years (150 site-years in total). Annual fluxes were integrated using site-specific ecohydrologic years to group precipitation with resulting ecosystem exchanges. We found a wide range of carbon sink/source function, with mean annual net ecosystem production (NEP) varying from -350 to +330 gCm -2 across sites with diverse vegetation types, contrasting with the more constant sink typically measured in mesic ecosystems. In this region, only forest-dominated sites were consistent carbon sinks. Interannual variability of NEP, gross ecosystem production (GEP), and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) was larger than for mesic regions, and half the sites switched between functioning as C sinks/C sources in wet/dry years. The sites demonstrated coherent responses of GEP and NEP to anomalies in annual evapotranspiration (ET), used here as a proxy for annually available water after hydrologic losses. Notably, GEP and R eco were negatively related to temperature, both interannually within site and spatially across sites, in contrast to positive temperature effects commonly reported for mesic ecosystems. Models based on MODIS satellite observations matched the cross-site spatial pattern in mean annual GEP but consistently underestimated mean annual ET by ~50%. Importantly, the MODIS-based models captured only 20-30% of interannual variation magnitude. These results suggest the contribution of this dryland region to variability of regional to global CO 2 exchange may be up to 3-5 times larger than current estimates. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Ground water occurrence and contributions to streamflow in an alpine catchment, Colorado Front Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, D.W.; Schrott, L.; Webb, R.; Campbell, D.H.; Torizzo, A.O.; Dornblaser, M.

2003-01-01

Ground water occurrence, movement, and its contribution to streamflow were investigated in Loch Vale, an alpine catchment in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Hydrogeomorphologic mapping, seismic refraction measurements, and porosity and permeability estimates indicate that talus slopes are the primary ground water reservoir, with a maximum storage capacity that is equal to, or greater than, total annual discharge from the basin (5.4 ± 0.8 × 106 m3). Although snowmelt and glacial melt provide the majority of annual water flux to the basin, tracer tests and gauging along a stream transect indicate that ground water flowing from talus can account for ≥75% of streamflow during storms and the winter base flow period. The discharge response of talus springs to storms and snowmelt reflects rapid transmittal of water through coarse debris at the talus surface and slower release of water from finer-grained sediments at depth.Ice stored in permafrost (including rock glaciers) is the second largest ground water reservoir in Loch Vale; it represents a significant, but seldom recognized, ground water reservoir in alpine terrain. Mean annual air temperatures are sufficiently cold to support permafrost above 3460 m; however, air temperatures have increased 1.1° to 1.4°C since the early 1990s, consistent with long-term (1976–2000) increases in air temperature measured at other high-elevation sites in the Front Range, European Alps, and Peruvian Andes. If other climatic factors remain constant, the increase in air temperatures at Loch Vale is sufficient to increase the lower elevational limit of permafrost by 150 to 190 m. Although this could cause a short-term increase in streamflow, it may ultimately result in decreased flow in the future.

Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wenping; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Xianglan; Liu, Shuguang; Yu, Guirui; Zhou, Tao; Bahn, Michael; Black, Andy; Desai, Ankur R.; Cescatti, Alessandro; Marcolla, Barbara; Jacobs, Cor; Chen, Jiquan; Aurela, Mika; Bernhofer, Christian; Gielen, Bert; Bohrer, Gil; Cook, David R.; Dragoni, Danilo; Dunn, Allison L.; Gianelle, Damiano; Grünwald, Thomas; Ibrom, Andreas; Leclerc, Monique Y.; Lindroth, Anders; Liu, Heping; Marchesini, Luca Belelli; Montagnani, Leonardo; Pita, Gabriel; Rodeghiero, Mirco; Rodrigues, Abel; Starr, Gregory; Stoy, Paul C.

2011-12-01

Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ˜3°S to ˜70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr -1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, Paul C.

2011-01-01

Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China.

PubMed

Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei

2015-01-01

The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth's hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River.

Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Xue, Jie

2015-01-01

The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth’s hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River. PMID:26244113

Seasonality intensification and long-term winter cooling as a part of the Late Pliocene climate development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, Stefan; Fauquette, Séverine; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Uhl, Dieter; Suc, Jean-Pierre; Mosbrugger, Volker

2006-01-01

A mutual climatic range method is applied to the Mediterranean marine pollen record of Semaforo (Vrica section, Calabria, Italy) covering the period from ∼2.46 Ma to ∼2.11 Ma. The method yields detailed information on summer, annual and winter temperatures and on precipitation during the nine obliquity and precession-controlled 'glacial' periods (marine isotope stages 96 to 80) and eight 'interglacial' periods (marine isotope stages 95 to 81) characterising this time interval. The reconstruction reveals higher temperatures of at least 2.8 °C in mean annual and 2.2 °C in winter temperatures, and 500 mm in precipitation during the 'interglacials' as compared to the present-day climate in the study area. During the 'glacials', temperatures are generally lower as compared to the present-day climate in the region, but precipitation is equivalent. Along the consecutive 'interglacials', a trend toward a reduction in annual and winter temperatures by more than 2.3 °C, and toward a higher seasonality is observed. Along the consecutive 'glacials', a trend toward a strong reduction in all temperature parameters of at least 1.6 °C is reconstructed. Climatic amplitudes of 'interglacial-glacial' transitions increase from the older to the younger cycles for summer and annual temperatures. The cross-spectral analyses suggest obliquity related warm/humid-cold/dry 'interglacial-glacial' cycles which are superimposed by precession related warm/dry- cold/humid cycles. A time displacement in the development of temperatures and precipitation is indicated for the obliquity band by temperatures generally leading precipitation change at ∼4 kyr, and on the precession band of ∼9.6 kyr in maximum.

Insects Overshoot the Expected Upslope Shift Caused by Climate Warming

PubMed Central

Bässler, Claus; Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2013-01-01

Along elevational gradients, climate warming may lead to an upslope shift of the lower and upper range margin of organisms. A recent meta-analysis concluded that these shifts are species specific and considerably differ among taxonomic lineages. We used the opportunity to compare upper range margins of five lineages (plants, beetles, flies, hymenoptera, and birds) between 1902–1904 and 2006–2007 within one region (Bavarian Forest, Central Europe). Based on the increase in the regional mean annual temperature during this period and the regional lapse rate, the upslope shift is expected to be between 51 and 201 m. Averaged across species within lineages, the range margin of all animal lineages shifted upslope, but that of plants did not. For animals, the observed shifts were probably due to shifts in temperature and not to changes in habitat conditions. The range margin of plants is therefore apparently not constrained by temperature, a result contrasting recent findings. The mean shift of birds (165 m) was within the predicted range and consistent with a recent global meta-analysis. However, the upslope shift of the three insect lineages (>260 m) exceeded the expected shift even after considering several sources of uncertainty, which indicated a non-linear response to temperature. Our analysis demonstrated broad differences among lineages in their response to climate change even within one region. Furthermore, on the considered scale, the response of ectothermic animals was not consistent with expectations based on shifts in the mean annual temperature. Irrespective of the reasons for the overshooting of the response of the insects, these shifts lead to reorganizations in the composition of assemblages with consequences for ecosystem processes. PMID:23762439

Insects overshoot the expected upslope shift caused by climate warming.

PubMed

Bässler, Claus; Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2013-01-01

Along elevational gradients, climate warming may lead to an upslope shift of the lower and upper range margin of organisms. A recent meta-analysis concluded that these shifts are species specific and considerably differ among taxonomic lineages. We used the opportunity to compare upper range margins of five lineages (plants, beetles, flies, hymenoptera, and birds) between 1902-1904 and 2006-2007 within one region (Bavarian Forest, Central Europe). Based on the increase in the regional mean annual temperature during this period and the regional lapse rate, the upslope shift is expected to be between 51 and 201 m. Averaged across species within lineages, the range margin of all animal lineages shifted upslope, but that of plants did not. For animals, the observed shifts were probably due to shifts in temperature and not to changes in habitat conditions. The range margin of plants is therefore apparently not constrained by temperature, a result contrasting recent findings. The mean shift of birds (165 m) was within the predicted range and consistent with a recent global meta-analysis. However, the upslope shift of the three insect lineages (>260 m) exceeded the expected shift even after considering several sources of uncertainty, which indicated a non-linear response to temperature. Our analysis demonstrated broad differences among lineages in their response to climate change even within one region. Furthermore, on the considered scale, the response of ectothermic animals was not consistent with expectations based on shifts in the mean annual temperature. Irrespective of the reasons for the overshooting of the response of the insects, these shifts lead to reorganizations in the composition of assemblages with consequences for ecosystem processes.

The Impact of Sea Ice Concentration Accuracies on Climate Model Simulations with the GISS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Rind, David; Healy, Richard J.; Martinson, Douglas G.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated climate to sea ice concentration specifications in the type of simulation done in the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP), with specified oceanic boundary conditions. Results show that sea ice concentration uncertainties of +/- 7% can affect simulated regional temperatures by more than 6 C, and biases in sea ice concentrations of +7% and -7% alter simulated annually averaged global surface air temperatures by -0.10 C and +0.17 C, respectively, over those in the control simulation. The resulting 0.27 C difference in simulated annual global surface air temperatures is reduced by a third, to 0.18 C, when considering instead biases of +4% and -4%. More broadly, least-squares fits through the temperature results of 17 simulations with ice concentration input changes ranging from increases of 50% versus the control simulation to decreases of 50% yield a yearly average global impact of 0.0107 C warming for every 1% ice concentration decrease, i.e., 1.07 C warming for the full +50% to -50% range. Regionally and on a monthly average basis, the differences can be far greater, especially in the polar regions, where wintertime contrasts between the +50% and -50% cases can exceed 30 C. However, few statistically significant effects are found outside the polar latitudes, and temperature effects over the non-polar oceans tend to be under 1 C, due in part to the specification of an unvarying annual cycle of sea surface temperatures. The +/- 7% and 14% results provide bounds on the impact (on GISS GCM simulations making use of satellite data) of satellite-derived ice concentration inaccuracies, +/- 7% being the current estimated average accuracy of satellite retrievals and +/- 4% being the anticipated improved average accuracy for upcoming satellite instruments. Results show that the impact on simulated temperatures of imposed ice concentration changes is least in summer, encouragingly the same season in which the satellite accuracies are thought to be worst. Hence the impact of satellite inaccuracies is probably less than the use of an annually averaged satellite inaccuracy would suggest.

Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnel, Michael S.; Ignizio, Drew A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed climate indices, referred to as bioclimatic predictors, which highlight climate conditions best related to species physiology. A set of 20 bioclimatic predictors were developed as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) continuous raster surfaces for each year between 1895 and 2009. The Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and down-scaled PRISM data, which included both averaged multi-year and averaged monthly climate summaries, was used to develop these multi-scale bioclimatic predictors. Bioclimatic predictors capture information about annual conditions (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, annual range in temperature and precipitation), as well as seasonal mean climate conditions and intra-year seasonality (temperature of the coldest and warmest months, precipitation of the wettest and driest quarters). Examining climate over time is useful when quantifying the effects of climate changes on species' distributions for past, current, and forecasted scenarios. These data, which have not been readily available to scientists, can provide biologists and ecologists with relevant and multi-scaled climate data to augment research on the responses of species to changing climate conditions. The relationships established between species demographics and distributions with bioclimatic predictors can inform land managers of climatic effects on species during decisionmaking processes.

Diel stream temperature regimes of Bukovsky regions of the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferencz, Stephen B.; Cardenas, M. Bayani

2017-03-01

Stream temperature which varies over daily to seasonal timescales is a primary control on myriad ecological, biogeochemical, and physical processes. Yet geographic patterns of its diel variations have not been fully characterized. Using daily temperature records spanning 15 years (2000-2014), monthly averaged mean daily temperature and diel temperature range were calculated for streams distributed across six Bukovsky regions of the conterminous U.S. Across all six regions, diel temperature fluctuations were lowest during the winter, around 1-2°C. During the summer there was wide distribution in diel temperatures (2°C-12°C). The regions revealed distinct differences in diel patterns for small and medium streams, but not for large streams. Small and medium streams exhibited notable hysteresis in their annual progression of diel temperature ranges, with larger diel temperature fluctuations in the spring than in the fall.

Sediment transport and water-quality characteristics and loads, White River, northwestern Colorado, water years 1975-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tobin, R.L.

1993-01-01

Streamflow, sediment, and water-quality data are summarized for 6 sites on the White River, Colorado for water years 1975-88. Correlation techniques were used to estimate annual data for unmeasured years. Annual stream discharge in the main stem of the White River ranged from about 200,000 to about 1 million acre-feet. Generally, bedload was less than/= 3.3 percent of total sediment load. Annual suspended-sediment loads ranged from about 2,100 tons at the upstream sites on the North Fork and South Fork of the White River to about 2 million tons at the most downstream site. Average annual suspended-sediment loads ranged from about 11,000 tons at the upstream sites to about 705,000 tons at the most downstream site. Annual capacity losses in a 50,000 acre-ft reservoir could range from less than 0.01 percent near upstream sites to about 2.5 percent near downstream sites. Maximum water temperatures in the White River ranged from less than 20 to 25 C in summer. Specific conductance ranged from 200 to 1,000 microsiemens/cm. Generally, values of pH ranged from 7.6 to 8.8, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen were greater than 6.0 mg/L. In small streamflows, values of pH and dissolved oxygen were affected by biologic processes. Composition of dissolved solids in the White River was mostly calcium, bicarbonate, and(or) sulfate. Changes in the composition of dissolved solids caused by the changes in the concentrations of sodium and sulfate were greatest in small stream discharges. Annual loads of dissolved solids ranged from 21,100 tons in the South Fork to about 480,000 tons at the most downstream site. Total solids transport in the White River was mostly as dissolved solids at upstream sites and mostly as suspended sediment at downstream sites. Concentration ranges of nutrients and trace constituents were determined.

Air Temperature, Heat Sums, and Pollen Shedding Phenology of Longleaf Pine

Treesearch

William D. Boyer

1972-01-01

Between 1957 and 1966, pollen shedding by longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) in southwestern Alabama peaked at dates ranging from February 23 to April 3. January 1 and 50°F was the combination of starting date and threshold air temperature that minimized annual variations in heat sums before the trees flowered. The heat sum required for peak...

Growing season temperature and precipitation variability and extremes in the U.S. Corn Belt from 1981 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, S.; Shulski, M.

2013-12-01

Climate warming and changes in rainfall patterns and increases in extreme events are resulting in higher risks of crop failures. A greater sense of urgency has been induced to understand the impacts of past climate on crop production in the U.S. As one of the most predominant sources of feed grains, corn is also the main source of U.S. ethanol. In the U.S. Corn Belt, region-scale evaluation on temperature and precipitation variability and extremes during the growing season is not well-documented yet. This study is part of the USDA-funded project 'Useful to Usable: Transforming climate variability and change information for cereal crop producers'. The overall goal of our work is to study the characteristics of average growing season conditions and changes in growing season temperature- and precipitation-based indices that are closely correlated with corn grain yield in the U.S. Corn Belt. The research area is the twelve major Corn Belt states, including IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, OH, SD, ND, and WI. Climate data during 1981-2010 from 132 meteorological stations (elevation ranges from 122 m to 1,202 m) are used in this study, including daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature, and daily precipitation. From 1981 to 2012, beginning date (BD), ending date (ED), and growing season length (GSL) in the climatological corn growing season are studied. Especially, during the agronomic corn growing season, from Apr to Oct, temperature- and precipitation-based indices are analyzed. The temperature-based indices include: number of days with daily mean temperature below 10°C, number of days with daily mean temperature above 30°C, the sum of growing degree days (GDD) between 10°C to 30°C (GDD10,30, growth range for corn), the sum of growing degree days above 30°C (GDD30+, exposure to harmful warming for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 0°C and 44°C (GDD0,44, survival range limits for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 5°C and 35°C (GDD5,35, growth range limits for corn), and the sum of growing degree days between 20°C and 22°C (GDD20,22, optimal growth range for corn). And the precipitation-based indices include: cumulative precipitation, consecutive dry days, and number of extreme precipitation events in June. As to the decadal trend analysis in climatic factors, Sen's Nonparametric Estimator of Slope and the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test are used. In the U.S. Corn Belt, annual mean Tavg ranges from 5.7°C to 14.7°C, and annual cumulative precipitation ranges from 396 mm to 1,203 mm. According to the decadal trend of annual mean Tavg and annual cumulative precipitation, 30 stations (45%) demonstrate a warm and dry trend, and 28 stations demonstrate a warm and wet trend. In monthly scale, Jun mean Tmin presents the most significantly increasing trend, and no significant decreasing or zero trend is detected from 1981 to 2012. During the climatological corn growing season, BD ranges from 76 to 128 DOY, ED ranges from 276 to 316 DOY, and GSL ranges from 150 to 242 days. From 1981 to 2012, BD is significantly advanced at the rate of 1 to 8 DOY per decade, ED is significantly delayed at the rate of 1 to 5 per decade, and GSL is significantly prolonged at the rate of 1 to 11 days per decade.

[Temporal change in annual air temperature and heat island effect in a coastal city and an inland city at mid-latitude in China during 1956-1998].

PubMed

Chao, Lu-men; Sun, Jian-xin

2009-12-01

Temporal changes in air temperature and urban heat island (UHI) effects during 1956-1998 were compared between a coastal city, Ji' nan, and an inland city, Xi' an, which were similar in latitude, size and development. During 1956-1978, except that the annual mean minimum temperature in Ji' nan increased by 0.37 degrees C x 10 a(-1), the temperature variables in the two cities did not display any apparent trend. During 1979-1998, all temperature variables of the two cities showed an increasing trend. Comparing with that in Ji' nan, the increasing rate of annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean temperature in Xi' an was greater, but that of annual mean minimum temperature was smaller. In the two cities, heat island effect occurred during 1956-1978 but without any apparent trend, whereas during 1979-1998, this effect increased with time, especially in Xi' an where the annual mean minimum temperature and annual mean temperature increased by 0.22 degrees C x 10 a(-1) and 0.32 degrees C x 10 a(-1), respectively. Both the level and the inter-annual variation of the heat island effect were much greater in Ji' nan than in Xi' an, but the increasing rate of this effect was greater in Xi' an than in Ji' nan. Obvious differences were observed in the increasing rate of annual mean maximum air temperature, annual mean air temperature, and annual mean minimum temperature as well as the heat island effect in Ji' nan, whereas negligible differences were found in Xi' an. Among the three temperature variables, annual mean minimum temperature displayed the most obvious increasing trend and was most affected by heat island effect, while annual mean maximum temperature was most variable inter-annually. Geographical location not only affected the magnitude of urban warming, but also affected the mode of urban warming and the strength of heat island effect.

Determination of annual and seasonal daytime and nighttime trends of MODIS LST over Greece - climate change implications.

PubMed

Eleftheriou, Dimitrios; Kiachidis, Kyriakos; Kalmintzis, Georgios; Kalea, Argiro; Bantasis, Christos; Koumadoraki, Paraskevi; Spathara, Maria Eleni; Tsolaki, Angeliki; Tzampazidou, Maria Irini; Gemitzi, Alexandra

2018-03-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging research topics during the last few decades, as temperature rise has already posed a significant impact on the earth's functions thus affecting all life of the planet. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is identified as a key variable in environmental and climate studies. The present study investigates the distribution of daytime and nighttime LST trends over Greece, a country in the Mediterranean area which is identified as one of the main "hot-spots" of climate change projections. Remotely sensed LST data were obtained from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor in the form of 8-day composites of day and night values at a resolution of 1km for a 17-year period, i.e. from 2000 to 2017. Spatial aggregates of 10km×10km were computed and the annual and seasonal temporal trends were determined for each one of those sub-areas. Results showed that annual trends of daily LST in the majority of areas demonstrated decrease ranging from -1∗10 -2 °C to -1.3∗10 -3 °C, with some sporadic parts showing a slight increase. A totally different outcome is observed in the fate of night LST, with all areas over Greece demonstrating increasing annual trends ranging from 4.6∗10 -5 °C to 3.1∗10 -3 °C, with highest values in the South-East parts of the country. Seasonal trends in day and night LST showed the same pattern, i.e., a general decrease in the day LST and a definite increase in night. An interesting finding is the increase in winter LST trends observed both for day and night LST, indicating that the absolute minimum annual LST observed during winter in Greece increases. Our results also indicate that the annual diurnal LST range is decreasing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding Arctic Surface Temperature Differences in Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard; Zhao, Bin; Shuman, Christopher; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. A review of surface temperature differences is presented with a particular focus on differences in contemporary reanalyses. An important consideration is the significant differences in Arctic surfaces, including the central Arctic Ocean, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and non-glaciated land. While there is significant correlation among reanalyses in annual time series, there is substantial disagreement in mean values. For the period 1980-2013, the trend in annual temperature ranges from 0.3 to 0.7K per decade. Over the central Arctic Ocean, differences in mean values and trends are larger. Most of the uncertainty is associated with winter months. This is likely associated with the constraint imposed by melting processes (i.e. 0 deg. Celsius), rather than seasonal changes to the observing system.

Assessment of phytoplankton resources suitable for bigheaded carps in Lake Michigan derived from remote sensing and bioenergetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Karl R.; Chapman, Duane C.; Wynne, Tim T.; Paukert, Craig P.

2017-01-01

We used bioenergetic simulations combined with satellite-measured water temperature and estimates of algal food availability to predict the habitat suitability of Lake Michigan for adult silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (H. nobilis). Depending on water temperature, we found that bigheaded carp require ambient algal concentrations between 1 and 7 μg chlorophyll/L or between 0.25 × 105 and 1.20 × 105 cells/mL Microcystis to maintain body weight. When the bioenergetics model is forced with the observed average annual temperature cycle, our simulations predicted silver carp bioenergetics predicted annual weight change ranging from 9% weight loss to 23% gain; bighead carp ranged from 68 to 177% weight gain. Algal concentrations b4 μg chlorophyll/L and b200,000 cells/mL were below the detection limits of the remote sensing method. However, all areas with detectable algae have sufficient concentrations of algal foods for bigheaded carp weight-maintenance and growth. Those areas are predominately along the nearshore areas.

Soil Respiration in European Grasslands in Relation to Climate and Assimilate Supply

PubMed Central

Bahn, Michael; Rodeghiero, Mirco; Anderson-Dunn, Margaret; Dore, Sabina; Gimeno, Cristina; Drösler, Matthias; Williams, Michael; Ammann, Christof; Berninger, Frank; Flechard, Chris; Jones, Stephanie; Balzarolo, Manuela; Kumar, Suresh; Newesely, Christian; Priwitzer, Tibor; Raschi, Antonio; Siegwolf, Rolf; Susiluoto, Sanna; Tenhunen, John; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Cernusca, Alexander

2010-01-01

Soil respiration constitutes the second largest flux of carbon (C) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. This study provides a synthesis of soil respiration (Rs) in 20 European grasslands across a climatic transect, including ten meadows, eight pastures and two unmanaged grasslands. Maximum rates of Rs (Rsmax), Rs at a reference soil temperature (10°C; Rs10) and annual Rs (estimated for 13 sites) ranged from 1.9 to 15.9 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1, 0.3 to 5.5 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1 and 58 to 1988 g C m−2 y−1, respectively. Values obtained for Central European mountain meadows are amongst the highest so far reported for any type of ecosystem. Across all sites Rsmax was closely related to Rs10. Assimilate supply affected Rs at timescales from daily (but not necessarily diurnal) to annual. Reductions of assimilate supply by removal of aboveground biomass through grazing and cutting resulted in a rapid and a significant decrease of Rs. Temperature-independent seasonal fluctuations of Rs of an intensively managed pasture were closely related to changes in leaf area index (LAI). Across sites Rs10 increased with mean annual soil temperature (MAT), LAI and gross primary productivity (GPP), indicating that assimilate supply overrides potential acclimation to prevailing temperatures. Also annual Rs was closely related to LAI and GPP. Because the latter two parameters were coupled to MAT, temperature was a suitable surrogate for deriving estimates of annual Rs across the grasslands studied. These findings contribute to our understanding of regional patterns of soil C fluxes and highlight the importance of assimilate supply for soil CO2 emissions at various timescales. PMID:20936099

Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change

PubMed Central

Monahan, William B.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.

2014-01-01

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5th percentile or >95th percentile) climates relative to their 1901–2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change. PMID:24988483

Reconstruction of Holocene changes in alpine vegetation and climate in the Maligne Range, Jasper National Park, Alberta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luckman, B. H.; Kearney, M. S.

1986-09-01

Pollen, macrofossil (logs and needles), and oxygen-isotope data from tree rings are presented for three alpine bog sites in the Maligne Range of the Canadian Rockies. Organic sedimentation at the Watchtower site began prior to ca. 9500 14C yr B.P. and by 8770 yr B.P. timberlines were at least 100 m above present levels. The two pollen records are dominated by Pinus and subsequent changes in timberlines are inferred from pollen-ratio data ( Abies/Pinus) and from macrofossils. The recovered records indicate two periods of high Hypsithermal timberlines ca. 8800-7500 and 7200-5200 yr B.P. separated by a short interval ca. 7300-7400 yr B.P. when timberline approached modern levels. After ca. 4500 yr B.P. timberlines have been similar to or lower than present, reaching minimum values in the last 500 yr. δ 18O determinations from the α-cellulose of samples of 5 or 10 annual rings cut from contemporary Picea englemannii at timberline show strong correlations with mean annual temperatures at Jasper. Isotopic determinations from Hypsithermal-age logs recovered from sites above present timberline indicate mean annual temperatures were at least 0.5°C warmer ca. 8060 and 8770 yr B.P. than at present at the Watchtower site. Data from logs at the Maligne Pass site suggest that temperatures were about 1.2° and 1.6°C warmer ca. 6000 and 5300 yr B.P. Estimates of temperature from the pollen-ratio data are more conservative and suggest maximum differences of ca. 1.0°C in July temperatures over the last 8000 yr.

Climate exposure of US national parks in a new era of change.

PubMed

Monahan, William B; Fisichelli, Nicholas A

2014-01-01

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5th percentile or >95th percentile) climates relative to their 1901-2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change.

Sea surface temperature 1871-2099 in 14 cells around the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Sheppard, Charles

2004-07-01

Monthly sea surface temperature is provided for 14 locations around the UK for a 230 year period. These series are derived from the HadISST1 data set for historical time (1871-1999) and from the HadCM3 climate model for predicted SST (1950-2099). Two adjustments of the forecast data sets are needed to produce confluent SST series: the 50 year overlap is used for a gross adjustment, and a statistical scaling on the forecast data ensures that annual variations in forecast data match those of historical data. These monthly SST series are available on request. The overall rise in SST over time is clear for all sites, commencing in the last quarter of the 20th century. Apart from expected trends of overall warmer mean SST with more southerly latitudes and overall cooler mean SST towards the East, more interesting statistically significant general trends include a greater decadal rate of rise from warmer starting conditions. Annual temperature variation is not affected by absolute temperature, but is markedly greater towards the East. There is no correlation of annual range of SST with latitude, or with present SST values.

Needle age and season influence photosynthetic temperature response and total annual carbon uptake in mature Picea mariana trees

PubMed Central

Jensen, Anna M.; Warren, Jeffrey M.; Hanson, Paul J.; Childs, Joanne; Wullschleger, Stan D.

2015-01-01

Background and Aims The carbon (C) balance of boreal terrestrial ecosystems is sensitive to increasing temperature, but the direction and thresholds of responses are uncertain. Annual C uptake in Picea and other evergreen boreal conifers is dependent on seasonal- and cohort-specific photosynthetic and respiratory temperature response functions, so this study examined the physiological significance of maintaining multiple foliar cohorts for Picea mariana trees within an ombrotrophic bog ecosystem in Minnesota, USA. Methods Measurements were taken on multiple cohorts of needles for photosynthetic capacity, foliar respiration (Rd) and leaf biochemistry and morphology of mature trees from April to October over 4 years. The results were applied to a simple model of canopy photosynthesis in order to simulate annual C uptake by cohort age under ambient and elevated temperature scenarios. Key Results Temperature responses of key photosynthetic parameters [i.e. light-saturated rate of CO2 assimilation (Asat), rate of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax) and electron transport rate (Jmax)] were dependent on season and generally less responsive in the developing current-year (Y0) needles compared with 1-year-old (Y1) or 2-year-old (Y2) foliage. Temperature optimums ranged from 18·7 to 23·7, 31·3 to 38·3 and 28·7 to 36·7 °C for Asat, Vcmax and Jmax, respectively. Foliar cohorts differed in their morphology and photosynthetic capacity, which resulted in 64 % of modelled annual stand C uptake from Y1&2 cohorts (LAI 0·67 m2 m−2) and just 36 % from Y0 cohorts (LAI 0·52 m2 m−2). Under warmer climate change scenarios, the contribution of Y0 cohorts was even less; e.g. 31 % of annual C uptake for a modelled 9 °C rise in mean summer temperatures. Results suggest that net annual C uptake by P. mariana could increase under elevated temperature, and become more dependent on older foliar cohorts. Conclusions Collectively, this study illustrates the physiological and ecological significance of different foliar cohorts, and indicates the need for seasonal- and cohort-specific model parameterization when estimating C uptake capacity of boreal forest ecosystems under ambient or future temperature scenarios. PMID:26220656

[Application of GIS and integrated mathematic models on estimating forest land wood productiveness and solar energy use efficiency].

PubMed

Xing, Shihe; Lin, Dexi; Shen, Jinquan; Cao, Rongbin

2005-10-01

Based on the meteorological elements observation and mountain soil survey in Fujian Province, this paper approached the application of geographic information system (GIS) and integrated mathematic models on estimating the grid wood productiveness and solar energy use efficiency (SEUE) of regional forest land. The results showed that there was a significant quadratic correlation of annual mean temperature, precipitation and total solar radiation energy(TSRE) with longitude, latitude and altitude, and their multiple correlation coefficients ranged from 0.692 to 0.981. The regional annual mean TSRE, temperature and precipitation could be well estimated by GIS and integrated models of quadratic tendency curve, and linear, quadratic and quartic inverse distance weighted interpolation. These annual means estimated by the models did not differ greatly from observed data, and the t test values were 1.29, 0.12 and 0.06, respectively. The grid wood productiveness and SEUE of regional forest land in Fujian could also be well estimated with the aid of GIS and integrated models, which ranged from 2.32 m3 x hm(-2) yr(-1) to 18.61 m3 x hm(-2) yr(-1) and from 0.11% to 0.91%, respectively.

The long-range correlation and evolution law of centennial-scale temperatures in Northeast China.

PubMed

Zheng, Xiaohui; Lian, Yi; Wang, Qiguang

2018-01-01

This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time periods, we found that the monthly mean temperature has long-range correlation, which indicates that the temperature in Northeast China has long-term memory and good predictability. The monthly time series of temperatures over the past 106 years also shows good long-range correlation characteristics. These characteristics are also obviously observed in the annual mean temperature time series. Finally, we separated the centennial-length temperature time series into two time periods. These results reveal that the long-range correlations at the Harbin station over these two time periods have large variations, whereas no obvious variations are observed at the other two stations. This indicates that warming affects the regional climate system's predictability differently at different time periods. The research results can provide a quantitative reference point for regional climate predictability assessment and future climate model evaluation.

Fourth Annual Holiday Decorating Contest Features Sharks, Santas, Toys, and More | Poster

Cancer.gov

The 2017 holiday season brought cold temperatures and heated competition to NCI at Frederick as 14 groups faced off in the R&W Club of Frederick’s Fourth Annual Holiday Decorating Contest. Keeping with tradition, many of the competitors sought to outdo not just each other’s themed entries, but also their own decorations from previous years. Accordingly, this year’s themes ranged from childhood memories to local landscapes to the downright outlandish.

Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

PubMed

Jansson, Roland

2003-03-22

I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

Dramatic response to climate change in the Southwest: Robert Whittaker's 1963 Arizona Mountain plant transect revisited

PubMed Central

Brusca, Richard C; Wiens, John F; Meyer, Wallace M; Eble, Jeff; Franklin, Kim; Overpeck, Jonathan T; Moore, Wendy

2013-01-01

Models analyzing how Southwestern plant communities will respond to climate change predict that increases in temperature will lead to upward elevational shifts of montane species. We tested this hypothesis by reexamining Robert Whittaker's 1963 plant transect in the Santa Catalina Mountains of southern Arizona, finding that this process is already well underway. Our survey, five decades after Whittaker's, reveals large changes in the elevational ranges of common montane plants, while mean annual rainfall has decreased over the past 20 years, and mean annual temperatures increased 0.25°C/decade from 1949 to 2011 in the Tucson Basin. Although elevational changes in species are individualistic, significant overall upward movement of the lower elevation boundaries, and elevational range contractions, have occurred. This is the first documentation of significant upward shifts of lower elevation range boundaries in Southwestern montane plant species over decadal time, confirming that previous hypotheses are correct in their prediction that mountain communities in the Southwest will be strongly impacted by warming, and that the Southwest is already experiencing a rapid vegetation change. PMID:24223270

Snowmelt Timing as a Determinant of Lake Inflow Mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, D. C.; Forrest, A. L.; Sahoo, G. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schladow, S. G.

2018-02-01

Snowmelt is a significant source of carbon, nutrient, and sediment loads to many mountain lakes. The mixing conditions of snowmelt inflows, which are heavily dependent on the interplay between snowmelt and lake thermal regime, dictate the fate of these loads within lakes and their ultimate impact on lake ecosystems. We use five decades of data from Lake Tahoe, a 600 year residence-time lake where snowmelt has little influence on lake temperature, to characterize the snowmelt mixing response to a range of climate conditions. Using stream discharge and lake profile data (1968-2017), we find that the proportion of annual snowmelt entering the lake prior to the onset of stratification increases as annual snowpack decreases, ranging from about 50% in heavy-snow years to close to 90% in warm, dry years. Accordingly, in 8 recent years (2010-2017) where hourly inflow buoyancy and discharge could be quantified, we find that decreased snowpack similarly increases the proportion of annual snowmelt entering the lake at weak to positive buoyancy. These responses are due to the stronger effect of winter precipitation conditions on streamflow timing and temperature than on lake stratification, and point toward increased nearshore and near-surface mixing of inflows in low-snowpack years. The response of inflow mixing conditions to snowpack is apparent when isolating temperature effects on snowpack. Snowpack levels are decreasing due to warming temperatures during winter precipitation. Thus, our findings suggest that climate change may lead to increased deposition of inflow loads in the ecologically dynamic littoral zone of high-residence time, snowmelt-fed lakes.

When do Indians feel hot? Internet searches indicate seasonality suppresses adaptation to heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Van der Velde, Ype

2018-05-01

In a warming world an increasing number of people are being exposed to heat, making a comfortable thermal environment an important need. This study explores the potential of using Regional Internet Search Frequencies (RISF) for air conditioning devices as an indicator for thermal discomfort (i.e. dissatisfaction with the thermal environment) with the aim to quantify the adaptation potential of individuals living across different climate zones and at the high end of the temperature range, in India, where access to health data is limited. We related RISF for the years 2011–2015 to daily daytime outdoor temperature in 17 states and determined at which temperature RISF for air conditioning starts to peak, i.e. crosses a ‘heat threshold’, in each state. Using the spatial variation in heat thresholds, we explored whether people continuously exposed to higher temperatures show a lower response to heat extremes through adaptation (e.g. physiological, behavioural or psychological). State-level heat thresholds ranged from 25.9 °C in Madhya Pradesh to 31.0 °C in Orissa. Local adaptation was found to occur at state level: the higher the average temperature in a state, the higher the heat threshold; and the higher the intra-annual temperature range (warmest minus coldest month) the lower the heat threshold. These results indicate there is potential within India to adapt to warmer temperatures, but that a large intra-annual temperature variability attenuates this potential to adapt to extreme heat. This winter ‘reset’ mechanism should be taken into account when assessing the impact of global warming, with changes in minimum temperatures being an important factor in addition to the change in maximum temperatures itself. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of local heat thresholds and people’s adaptive capacity, which can support the design of local thermal comfort standards and early heat warning systems.

Seasonal dynamics of VLF signals amplitude Novosibirsk radio station and mesopause region temperature in 2009-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlov, V. I.; Korsakov, A. A.; Ammosov, P. P.; Ammosova, A. M.; Gavrilyeva, G. A.; Koltovskoi, I. I.

2017-11-01

Dynamics of seasonal variations in the amplitude of the VLF radio signal received in Yakutsk from the navigation station near Novosibirsk and the radiation intensity in the wavelength range from 835 to 853 nm, where the P-branches of the OH band (6-2) are located, is present. The radiation variations give information about mesopause region measured at the Maimaga station (130 km from Yakutsk). Observation period from 2009 to 2015 covers period with minimum and maximum solar activity (solar flux F10.7). In the seasonal dynamics of the VLF amplitude signals and the mesopause temperature are observed annual, semiannual and third-annual variations, increasing during nighttime for VLF signals. The mesopause temperature and the VLF signal increase with increasing solar flux F10.7 in winter.

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

2017-06-02

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a small statistically significant increase in peaks greater than the base streamflow. The greatest increase was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) during 1962‒2012; the increase was 1.8 ft3/s per decade. There were no statistically significant trends in the number of floods equal to or greater than the 2-year recurrence interval flood flow.Twenty‒one monitoring wells were evaluated for statistically significant trends in annual mean water level, minimum annual water level, maximum annual water level, and annual range in water-level fluctuations. For four wells, a small statistically significant increase in annual mean water level was determined that ranged from 0.16 to 0.7 feet per decade. There was poor or no correlation between annual mean groundwater levels and annual mean streamflow and base flow. No correlation was determined between annual mean groundwater level and annual precipitation. Despite rapid population growth and land-use change since 1950, there appears to have been little or no detrimental effects on groundwater levels in 21 monitoring wells.Long-term precipitation and temperature data were available from the West Chester (1893‒2013) and Phoenixville, Pa. (1915‒2013) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations. No statistically significant trends in annual mean precipitation or annual mean temperature were determined for either station. Both weather stations had a significant decrease in the number of days per year with precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 inch. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures from the NOAA Southeastern Piedmont Climate Division increased 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (F) per decade between 1896 and 2014. The number of days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees F increased at West Chester and decreased at Phoenixville. No statistically significant trend was determined for annual snowfall amounts.Data from 1974 to 2013 for three stream water-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time.The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration.A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and average streamflow was 21.4 inches. Average runoff and base flow were 8.3 and 13.1 inches, respectively, and average evapotranspiration and estimation of errors was 27.2 inches."

Stream-temperature patterns of the Muddy Creek basin, Anne Arundel County, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pluhowski, E.J.

1981-01-01

Using a water-balance equation based on a 4.25-year gaging-station record on North Fork Muddy Creek, the following mean annual values were obtained for the Muddy Creek basin: precipitation, 49.0 inches; evapotranspiration, 28.0 inches; runoff, 18.5 inches; and underflow, 2.5 inches. Average freshwater outflow from the Muddy Creek basin to the Rhode River estuary was 12.2 cfs during the period October 1, 1971, to December 31, 1975. Harmonic equations were used to describe seasonal maximum and minimum stream-temperature patterns at 12 sites in the basin. These equations were fitted to continuous water-temperature data obtained periodically at each site between November 1970 and June 1978. The harmonic equations explain at least 78 percent of the variance in maximum stream temperatures and 81 percent of the variance in minimum temperatures. Standard errors of estimate averaged 2.3C (Celsius) for daily maximum water temperatures and 2.1C for daily minimum temperatures. Mean annual water temperatures developed for a 5.4-year base period ranged from 11.9C at Muddy Creek to 13.1C at Many Fork Branch. The largest variations in stream temperatures were detected at thermograph sites below ponded reaches and where forest coverage was sparse or missing. At most sites the largest variations in daily water temperatures were recorded in April whereas the smallest were in September and October. The low thermal inertia of streams in the Muddy Creek basin tends to amplify the impact of surface energy-exchange processes on short-period stream-temperature patterns. Thus, in response to meteorologic events, wide ranging stream-temperature perturbations of as much as 6C have been documented in the basin. (USGS)

Annual and Semi-Annual Temperature Oscillations in the Upper Mesosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niciejewski, R. J.; Killeen, T. L.

1995-01-01

Fourier transform spectrometer observations of the mesosphere have been performed at the University of Michigan (latitude: 42.5 N) on a long term basis. A database of near infrared Meinel hydroxyl spectra has been accumulated from which rotational temperatures have been determined. Harmonic analysis of one-day averaged temperatures for the period 1992.0 to 1994.5 has shown a distinct annual and semi-annual variation. Subsequent fitting of a five term periodic function characterizing the annual and semi-annual temperature oscillations to the daily averaged temperatures was performed. The resultant mean temperature and the amplitudes and phases of the annual and semi-annual variations are shown to coincide with an emission height slightly above 85 km which is consistent with the mean rocket derived altitude for peak nocturnal hydroxyl emission.

Spectral Structure of Temperature Variations in the Midlatitude Mesopause Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perminov, V. I.; Semenov, A. I.; Medvedeva, I. V.; Pertsev, N. N.; Sukhodoev, V. A.

2018-01-01

Long-term series of midnight temperature in the mesopause region have been obtained from spectral observations of hydroxyl airglow emission (OH(6-2) λ840 nm band) at the Tory station (52° N, 103° E) in 2008-2016 and Zvenigorod (56° N, 37° E) station in 2000-2016. On their basis, the Lomb-Scargle spectra of the variations in the period range from 12 days to 11 years have been determined. Estimates of the amplitudes of statistically significant temperature fluctuations are made. The dominant oscillations are the first and second harmonics of the annual variation, the amplitudes of which are 23-24 K and 4-7 K, respectively. The remaining variations, the number of which was 16 for the Tory and 22 for Zvenigorod stations, have small amplitudes (0.5-3 K). Oscillations with combinational frequencies, which arise from modulation of the annual variation harmonics, are observed in a structure of the variation spectra in addition to interannual oscillations (periods from 2 to 11 years) and harmonics of the annual variation (up to its tenth harmonic).

Predictive models and spatial variations of vital capacity in healthy people from 6 to 84 years old in China based on geographical factors.

PubMed

He, Jinwei; Ge, Miao; Wang, Congxia; Jiang, Naigui; Zhang, Mingxin; Yun, Pujun

2014-07-01

The aim of this study was to provide a scientific basic for a unified standard of the reference value of vital capacity (VC) of healthy subjects from 6 and 84 years old in China. The normal reference value of VC was correlated to seven geographical factors, including altitude (X1), annual duration of sunshine (X2), annual mean air temperature (X3), annual mean relative humidity (X4), annual precipitation amount (X5), annual air temperature range (X6) and annual mean wind speed (X7). Predictive models were established by five different linear and nonlinear methods. The best models were selected by t-test. The geographical distribution map of VC in different age groups can be interpolated by Kriging's method using ArcGIS software. It was found that the correlation of VC and geographical factors in China was quite significant, especially for both males and females aged from 6 to 45. The best models were built for different age groups. The geographical distribution map shows the spatial variations of VC in China precisely. The VC of healthy subjects can be simulated by the best model or acquired from the geographical distribution map provided the geographical factors for that city or county of China are known.

An Empirical Estimation of Underground Thermal Performance for Malaysian Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhtar, Azfarizal; Zamri Yusoff, Mohd; Khai Ching, Ng

2017-12-01

In this study, the soil temperature profile was computed based on the harmonic heat transfer equations at various depths. The meteorological data ranging from January, 1st 2016 to December, 31st 2016 measured by local weather stations were employed. The findings indicted that as the soil depth increases, the temperature changes are negligible and the soil temperature is nearly equal to the mean annual air temperature. Likewise, the results have been compared with those reported by other researchers. Overall, the predicted soil temperature can be readily adopted in various engineering applications in Malaysia.

Seasonal Temperature Estimates From Late Holocene Barents Sea cod Otoliths: Problems and Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson, C.; Folkvord, A.; Geffen, A.; Høie, H.

2008-12-01

Realistic models of climate change require accurate data of past seasonal temperature regimes. In many marine settings this is difficult to achieve using the marine sedimentary record. This study tests the feasibility to use archaeological cod otoliths to reconstruct changes in the seasonal temperature cycle in the Barents Sea. Potentially, stable oxygen isotope records from cod otoliths could be used to produce records of Holocene temperature change on a seasonal time scale. Human settlements along the coast of northern Norway have exploited the cod (Gadus morhua) population of the Barents Sea from the earliest occupation, through the middle ages, to the present day. A pilot project has been carried out in Bergen to exploit the availability of a collection of cod otoliths from archeological excavations that is housed by the Bergen Museum. Cod otoliths from archaeological excavations in northern Norway, 26 specimens from from Måsøy (Finnmark) and 17 specimens from Vanna (Troms), were selected for this study. These specimens were AMS radiocarbon dated and the ages are spanning approximately 1400 to 1780 AD. Most of the otoliths are from cod that were captured during the Little Ice Age. Seasonal growth patterns were identifiable in the archeological otoliths, comparable to those in modern otoliths. Micromilling was used to sample for stable oxygen isotopes over a 2-year growth period in each of a total of 43 fossil cod otoliths. There are large differences in the temperature ranges experienced by the fish over the 2-year period analyzed. For the Måsøy specimens the temperature range experienced by the fish is between 2.7 to 9.9 °C. The Vanna cod experienced temperature ranges between 1.7 to 7.2 °C. The maximum temperature ranges for both Vanna and Måsøy specimens are higher than the seasonal instrumental measurements for the 0-200 m depth interval in the Kola section in the Barents Sea. The cod otoliths in our study have not yet been divided into different age groups, which is necessary in order to be able to interpret the calculated temperature ranges because the annual temperature cycles experienced by fish at different ages are different. Another problem that needs to address is the annual migration of cod of northern Norway. It is known that both mature and immature cod undertake long seasonal migrations.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

Long-term projections of temperature-related mortality risks for ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and acute ischemic heart disease under changing climate in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Liu, Fangchao; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L

2018-03-01

Changing climates have been causing variations in the number of global ischemic heart disease and stroke incidences, and will continue to affect disease occurrence in the future. To project temperature-related mortality for acute ischemic heart disease, and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with concomitant climate warming. We estimated the exposure-response relationship between daily cause-specific mortality and daily mean temperature in Beijing. We utilized outputs from 31 downscaled climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. This strategy was used to estimate future net temperature along with heat- and cold-related deaths. The results for predicted temperature-related deaths were subsequently contrasted with the baseline period. In the 2080s, using the RCP8.5 and no population variation scenarios, the net total number of annual temperature-related deaths exhibited a median value of 637 (with a range across models of 434-874) for ischemic stroke; this is an increase of approximately 100% compared with the 1980s. The median number of projected annual temperature-related deaths was 660 (with a range across models of 580-745) for hemorrhagic stroke (virtually no change compared with the 1980s), and 1683 (with a range across models of 1351-2002) for acute ischemic heart disease (a slight increase of approximately 20% compared with the 1980s). In the 2080s, the monthly death projection for hemorrhagic stroke and acute ischemic heart disease showed that the largest absolute changes occurred in summer and winter while the largest absolute changes for ischemic stroke occurred in summer. We projected that the temperature-related mortality associated with ischemic stroke will increase dramatically due to climate warming. However, projected temperature-related mortality pertaining to acute ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke should remain relatively stable over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Which are the most important parameters for modelling carbon assimilation in boreal Norway spruce under elevated [CO(2)] and temperature conditions?

PubMed

Hall, Marianne; Medlyn, Belinda E; Abramowitz, Gab; Franklin, Oskar; Räntfors, Mats; Linder, Sune; Wallin, Göran

2013-11-01

Photosynthesis is highly responsive to environmental and physiological variables, including phenology, foliage nitrogen (N) content, atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]), irradiation (Q), air temperature (T) and vapour pressure deficit (D). Each of these responses is likely to be modified by long-term changes in climatic conditions such as rising air temperature and [CO2]. When modelling photosynthesis under climatic changes, which parameters are then most important to calibrate for future conditions? To assess this, we used measurements of shoot carbon assimilation rates and microclimate conditions collected at Flakaliden, northern Sweden. Twelve 40-year-old Norway spruce trees were enclosed in whole-tree chambers and exposed to elevated [CO2] and elevated air temperature, separately and in combination. The treatments imposed were elevated temperature, +2.8 °C in July/August and +5.6 °C in December above ambient, and [CO2] (ambient CO2 ∼370 μ mol mol(-1), elevated CO2 ∼700 μ mol mol(-1)). The relative importance of parameterization of Q, T and D responses for effects on the photosynthetic rate, expressed on a projected needle area, and the annual shoot carbon uptake was quantified using an empirical shoot photosynthesis model, which was developed and fitted to the measurements. The functional form of the response curves was established using an artificial neural network. The [CO2] treatment increased annual shoot carbon (C) uptake by 50%. Most important was effects on the light response curve, with a 67% increase in light-saturated photosynthetic rate, and a 52% increase in the initial slope of the light response curve. An interactive effect of light saturated photosynthetic rate was found with foliage N status, but no interactive effect for high temperature and high CO2. The air temperature treatment increased the annual shoot C uptake by 44%. The most important parameter was the seasonality, with an elongation of the growing season by almost 4 weeks. The temperature response curve was almost flat over much of the temperature range. A shift in temperature optimum had thus an insignificant effect on modelled annual shoot C uptake. The combined temperature and [CO2] treatment resulted in a 74% increase in annual shoot C uptake compared with ambient conditions, with no clear interactive effects on parameter values.

Changing climates, changing forests: A western North American perspective

Treesearch

Christopher J. Fettig; Mary L. Reid; Barbara J. Bentz; Sanna Sevanto; David L. Spittlehouse; T. Wang

2013-01-01

The Earth’s mean surface air temperature has warmed by ~1C over the last 100 years and is projected to increase at a faster rate in the future, accompanied by changes in precipitation patterns and increases in the occurrence of extreme weather events. In western North America, projected increases in mean annual temperatures range from ~1−3.5C by the 2050s,...

Thermal adaptation of net ecosystem exchange

DOE PAGES

Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Liang, S.; ...

2011-06-06

Thermal adaptation of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration has been well documented over broad thermal gradients. However, no study has examined their interaction as a function of temperature, i.e. the thermal responses of net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE). Here in this study, we constructed temperature response curves of NEE against temperature using 380 site-years of eddy covariance data at 72 forest, grassland and shrubland ecosystems located at latitudes ranging from ~29° N to 64° N. The response curves were used to define two critical temperatures: transition temperature (T b) at which ecosystem transfer from carbon source to sinkmore » and optimal temperature (T o) at which carbon uptake is maximized. T b was strongly correlated with annual mean air temperature. T o was strongly correlated with mean temperature during the net carbon uptake period across the study ecosystems. Our results imply that the net ecosystem exchange of carbon adapts to the temperature across the geographical range due to intrinsic connections between vegetation primary production and ecosystem respiration.« less

Thermal adaptation of net ecosystem exchange

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Liang, S.

Thermal adaptation of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration has been well documented over broad thermal gradients. However, no study has examined their interaction as a function of temperature, i.e. the thermal responses of net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE). Here in this study, we constructed temperature response curves of NEE against temperature using 380 site-years of eddy covariance data at 72 forest, grassland and shrubland ecosystems located at latitudes ranging from ~29° N to 64° N. The response curves were used to define two critical temperatures: transition temperature (T b) at which ecosystem transfer from carbon source to sinkmore » and optimal temperature (T o) at which carbon uptake is maximized. T b was strongly correlated with annual mean air temperature. T o was strongly correlated with mean temperature during the net carbon uptake period across the study ecosystems. Our results imply that the net ecosystem exchange of carbon adapts to the temperature across the geographical range due to intrinsic connections between vegetation primary production and ecosystem respiration.« less

Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millett, B.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.

2009-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

Daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual ammonia emissions from Southern High Plains cattle feedyards.

PubMed

Todd, Richard W; Cole, N Andy; Rhoades, Marty B; Parker, David B; Casey, Kenneth D

2011-01-01

Ammonia emitted from beef cattle feedyards adds excess reactive N to the environment, contributes to degraded air quality as a precursor to secondary particulate matter, and represents a significant loss of N from beef cattle feedyards. We used open path laser spectroscopy and an inverse dispersion model to quantify daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual NH emissions during 2 yr from two commercial cattle feedyards in the Panhandle High Plains of Texas. Annual patterns of NH fluxes correlated with air temperature, with the greatest fluxes (>100 kg ha d) during the summer and the lowest fluxes (<15 kg ha d) during the winter. Mean monthly per capita emission rate (PCER) of NH-N at one feedyard ranged from 31 g NH-N head d (January) to 207 g NH-N head d (October), when increased dietary crude protein from wet distillers grains elevated emissions. Ammonia N emissions at the other feedyard ranged from 36 g NH-N head d (January) to 121 g NH-N head d (September). Monthly fractional NH-N loss ranged from a low of 19 to 24% to a high of 80 to 85% of fed N at the two feedyards. Seasonal PCER at the two feedyards averaged 60 to 71 g NH-N head d during winter and 103 to 158 g NH-N head d during summer. Annually, PCER was 115 and 80 g NH-N head d at the two feedyards, which represented 59 and 52% of N fed to the cattle. Detailed studies are needed to determine the effect of management and environmental variables such as diet, temperature, precipitation, and manure water content on NH emissions. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Eocene Antarctic seasonality inferred from high-resolution stable isotope profiles of fossil bivalves and driftwood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Judd, E. J.; Ivany, L. C.; Miklus, N. M.; Uveges, B. T.; Junium, C. K.

2017-12-01

The Eocene Epoch was a time of large-scale global climate change, experiencing both the warmest temperatures of the Cenozoic and the onset of southern hemisphere glaciation. The record of average global temperatures throughout this transition is reasonably well constrained, however considerably less is known about the accompanying changes in seasonality. Seasonally resolved temperature data provide a wealth of information not readily available from mean annual temperature data alone. These data are particularly important in the climatically sensitive high latitudes, as they can elucidate the means by which climate changes and the conditions necessary for the growth of ice sheets. Several recent studies, however, have suggested the potential for monsoonal precipitation regimes in the early-middle Eocene high latitudes, which complicates interpretation of seasonally resolved oxygen isotope records in shallow nearshore marine settings. Seasonal precipitation and runoff could create a brackish, isotopically depleted lens in these environments, depleting summertime δ18Ocarb and thereby inflating the inferred mean and range of isotope-derived temperatures. Here, we assess intra-annual variations in temperature in shallow nearshore Antarctic waters during the middle and late Eocene, inferred from high-resolution oxygen isotope profiles from accretionary bivalves of the La Meseta Formation, Seymour Island, Antarctica. To address concerns related to precipitation and runoff, we also subsample exceptionally preserved fossil driftwood from within the formation and use seasonal differences in δ13Corg values to estimate the ratio of summertime to wintertime precipitation. Late Eocene oxygen isotope profiles exhibit strongly attenuated seasonal amplitudes and more enriched mean annual values in comparison with data from the middle Eocene. Preliminary fossil wood data are not indicative of a strongly seasonal precipitation regime, implying that intra-annual variation in oxygen isotope profiles dominantly reflects changes in temperature. Collectively, these results indicate that the late Eocene was cooler and dramatically less seasonal than the middle Eocene and suggest that high latitude Eocene cooling was achieved primarily through a preferential decrease in summertime temperatures.

Widespread occurrence of distinct alkenones from Group I haptophytes in freshwater lakes: Implications for paleotemperature and paleoenvironmental reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, William M.; Huang, Yongsong; Yao, Yuan; Zhao, Jiaju; Giblin, Anne E.; Wang, Xian; Zech, Roland; Haberzettl, Torsten; Jardillier, Ludwig; Toney, Jaime; Liu, Zhonghui; Krivonogov, Sergey; Kolpakova, Marina; Chu, Guoqiang; D'Andrea, William J.; Harada, Naomi; Nagashima, Kana; Sato, Miyako; Yonenobu, Hitoshi; Yamada, Kazuyoshi; Gotanda, Katsuya; Shinozuka, Yoshitsugu

2018-06-01

Alkenones are C35-C42 polyunsaturated ketone lipids that are commonly employed to reconstruct changes in sea surface temperature. However, their use in coastal seas and saline lakes can be hindered by species-mixing effects. We recently hypothesized that freshwater lakes are immune to species-mixing effects because they appear to exclusively host Group I haptophyte algae, which produce a distinct distribution of alkenones with a relatively consistent response of alkenone unsaturation to temperature. To evaluate this hypothesis and explore the geographic extent of Group I haptophytes, we analyzed alkenones in sediment and suspended particulate matter samples from lakes distributed throughout the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (n = 30). Our results indicate that Group I-type alkenone distributions are widespread in freshwater lakes from a range of different climates (mean annual air temperature range: -17.3-10.9 °C; mean annual precipitation range: 125-1657 mm yr-1; latitude range: 40-81°N), and are commonly found in neutral to basic lakes (pH > 7.0), including volcanic lakes and lakes with mafic bedrock. We show that these freshwater lakes do not feature alkenone distributions characteristic of Group II lacustrine haptophytes, providing support for the hypothesis that freshwater lakes are immune to species-mixing effects. In lakes that underwent temporal shifts in salinity, we observed mixed Group I/II alkenone distributions and the alkenone contributions from each group could be quantified with the RIK37 index. Additionally, we observed significant correlations of alkenone unsaturation (U37K) with seasonal and mean annual air temperature with this expanded freshwater lakes dataset, with the strongest correlation occurring during the spring transitional season (U37K = 0.029 * T - 0.49; r2 = 0.60; p < 0.0001). We present new sediment trap data from two lakes in northern Alaska (Toolik Lake, 68.632°N, 149.602°W; Lake E5, 68.643°N, 149.458°W) that demonstrate the highest sedimentary fluxes of alkenones in the spring transitional season, concurrent with the period of lake ice melt and isothermal mixing. Together, these data provide a framework for evaluating lacustrine alkenone distributions and utilizing alkenone unsaturation as a lake temperature proxy.

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2013-01-01

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

Climate Change of 4°C GlobalWarming above Pre-industrial Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaoxin; Jiang, Dabang; Lang, Xianmei

2018-07-01

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

PubMed Central

Bennie, Jonathan; Hodgson, Jenny A; Lawson, Callum R; Holloway, Crispin TR; Roy, David B; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D; Wilson, Robert J

2013-01-01

Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions. PMID:23701124

Seroprevalence and correlates of Toxoplasma gondii infection in domestic sheep in Michoacán State, Mexico.

PubMed

Alvarado-Esquivel, Cosme; Silva-Aguilar, Dante; Villena, Isabelle; Dubey, Jitender P

2013-11-01

Toxoplasma gondii infection in sheep is of public health and economic importance. Seroprevalence of T. gondii infection and correlates were determined in 405 sheep from 7 farms in 4 geographical regions in Michoacán State, Mexico using the modified agglutination test (MAT). General sheep and environmental characteristics were obtained by a questionnaire. All sheep were raised in semi-extensive conditions in temperate climate. Antibodies to T. gondii were found in 121 (29.9%) of the 405 sheep with MAT titers of 1:25 in 46, 1:50 in 20, 1:100 in 7, 1:200 in 5, 1:400 in 7, 1:800 in 11, 1:1600 in 5, and 1:3200 or higher in 20. Seropositivity did not vary significantly with age, sex or breed. In contrast, seroprevalence varied among farms, geographic region, municipality, altitude, mean annual temperature, and mean annual rainfall. The median seroprevalence in farms was 32.6% (range 7.1-71.4%). Sheep raised in farms at ≥1900 m above sea level had a higher seroprevalence (44.1%) than those in farms at lower sea level (16.3%). Sheep raised in municipalities with ≤17.7 °C mean annual temperature had a higher seroprevalence (37.2%) than those in municipalities with higher mean annual temperature (14.1%). Sheep raised in a municipality with 600 mm of mean annual rainfall had a higher seroprevalence (71.4%) than municipalities with higher mean annual rainfall (29.1%). This is the first report on the seroprevalence and correlates of T. gondii infection in sheep in Michoacán State, Mexico. The role of environmental characteristics for T. gondii infection in sheep deserves further research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variation of maximum tree height and annual shoot growth of Smith fir at various elevations in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Wang, Yafeng; Čufar, Katarina; Eckstein, Dieter; Liang, Eryuan

2012-01-01

Little is known about tree height and height growth (as annual shoot elongation of the apical part of vertical stems) of coniferous trees growing at various altitudes on the Tibetan Plateau, which provides a high-elevation natural platform for assessing tree growth performance in relation to future climate change. We here investigated the variation of maximum tree height and annual height increment of Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) in seven forest plots (30 m×40 m) along two altitudinal transects between 3,800 m and 4,200/4,390 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Four plots were located on north-facing slopes and three plots on southeast-facing slopes. At each site, annual shoot growth was obtained by measuring the distance between successive terminal bud scars along the main stem of 25 trees that were between 2 and 4 m high. Maximum/mean tree height and mean annual height increment of Smith fir decreased with increasing altitude up to the tree line, indicative of a stress gradient (the dominant temperature gradient) along the altitudinal transect. Above-average mean minimum summer (particularly July) temperatures affected height increment positively, whereas precipitation had no significant effect on shoot growth. The time series of annual height increments of Smith fir can be used for the reconstruction of past climate on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. In addition, it can be expected that the rising summer temperatures observed in the recent past and anticipated for the future will enhance Smith fir's growth throughout its altitudinal distribution range.

The community structure and seasonal dynamics of plankton in Bange Lake, northern Tibet, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wen; Zhao, Yuanyi; Wang, Qiaohan; Zheng, Mianping; Wei, Jie; Wang, Shan

2016-11-01

The seasonal variations in biomass, abundance, and species composition of plankton in relation to hydrography were studied in the saline Bange Lake, northern Tibet, China. Sampling was carried out between one to three times per month from May 2001 to July 2002. Salinity ranged from 14 to 146. The air and water temperature exhibited a clear seasonal pattern, and mean annual temperatures were approximately 4.8°C and 7.3°C, respectively. The lowest water temperature occurred in winter from December to March at -2°C and the highest in June and July at 17.7°C. Forty-one phytoplankton taxa, 21 zooplankton, and 5 benthic or facultative zooplankton were identified. The predominant phytoplankton species were Gloeothece linearis, Oscillatoria tenuis, Gloeocapsa punctata, Ctenocladus circinnatus, Dunaliella salina, and Spirulina major. The predominant zooplankton species included Holophrya actra, Brachionus plicatilis, Daphniopsis tibetana, Cletocamptus dertersi, and Arctodiaptomus salinus. The mean annual total phytoplankton density and biomass for the entire lake were 4.52×107 cells/L and 1.60 mg/L, respectively. The annual mean zooplankton abundance was 52, 162, 322, and 57, 144 ind./L, in the three sublakes. The annual mean total zooplankton biomass in Lakes 1-3 was 1.23, 9.98, and 2.13 mg/L, respectively. The annual mean tychoplankton abundances in Bg1, 2, and 3 were 47, 67, and 654 ind./L. The annual mean tychoplankton biomass was 2.36, 0.16, and 2.03 mg/L, respectively. The zooplankton biomass (including tychoplankton) in the lake was 9.11 mg/L. The total number of plankton species in the salt lake was significantly negatively correlated with salinity.

Thermal sensation and climate: a comparison of UTCI and PET thresholds in different climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantavou, Katerina; Lykoudis, Spyridon; Nikolopoulou, Marialena; Tsiros, Ioannis X.

2018-06-01

The influence of physiological acclimatization and psychological adaptation on thermal perception is well documented and has revealed the importance of thermal experience and expectation in the evaluation of environmental stimuli. Seasonal patterns of thermal perception have been studied, and calibrated thermal indices' scales have been proposed to obtain meaningful interpretations of thermal sensation indices in different climate regions. The current work attempts to quantify the contribution of climate to the long-term thermal adaptation by examining the relationship between climate normal annual air temperature (1971-2000) and such climate-calibrated thermal indices' assessment scales. The thermal sensation ranges of two thermal indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature Index (PET), were calibrated for three warm temperate climate contexts (Cfa, Cfb, Csa), against the subjective evaluation of the thermal environment indicated by interviewees during field surveys conducted at seven European cities: Athens (GR), Thessaloniki (GR), Milan (IT), Fribourg (CH), Kassel (DE), Cambridge (UK), and Sheffield (UK), under the same research protocol. Then, calibrated scales for other climate contexts were added from the literature, and the relationship between the respective scales' thresholds and climate normal annual air temperature was examined. To maintain the maximum possible comparability, three methods were applied for the calibration, namely linear, ordinal, and probit regression. The results indicated that the calibrated UTCI and PET thresholds increase with the climate normal annual air temperature of the survey city. To investigate further climates, we also included in the analysis results of previous studies presenting only thresholds for neutral thermal sensation. The average increase of the respective thresholds in the case of neutral thermal sensation was about 0.6 °C for each 1 °C increase of the normal annual air temperature for both indices, statistically significant only for PET though.

Needle age and season influence photosynthetic temperature response and total annual carbon uptake in mature Picea mariana trees

DOE PAGES

Jensen, Anna M.; Warren, Jeffrey; Hanson, Paul J.; ...

2015-01-01

Using seasonal- and cohort-specific photosynthetic temperature response functions, we quantified the physiological significance of maintaining multiple foliar cohorts in mature (~40-45 year old) Picea mariana trees in an ombrotrophic Sphagnum-bog, northern Minnesota, USA. We measured photosynthetic capacity, foliar respiration (Rd), biochemistry and morphology to estimate annual carbon (C) uptake by cohort, season and canopy position. Temperature response of key photosynthetic parameters at 25 C (i.e., light-saturated rate of CO 2 assimilation (Asat), light-saturated rate of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax), light-saturated electron transport rate (Jmax)) were clearly dependent on season and were generally less responsive in younger needles. Temperature optimums range betweenmore » 18.7-23.7, 31.3-38.3 and 28.7-36.7 C for Asat, Vcmax and Jmax respectively. Current-year (Y0) foliage had lower photosynthetic capacities compared to one-year-old (Y1) and two-year-old (Y2) foliage. As Y0 needles matured, values of Asat, Vcmax, Jmax, foliar LMA and nitrogen increased. Values of Vcmax, Jmax and Rd were related to foliar nitrogen but only in the youngest (Y0) cohort. Foliar ontogeny affected photosynthetic capacity more than growth temperature. Morphological and physiological cohort differences were reflected by their annual contribution to modeled C uptake, with a ~36% lower estimated annual C uptake by Y0 needles (LAI 0.52 m 2m -2) compared to Y1&2 cohorts (LAI 0.67 m 2m -2). Collectively, these results illustrate the physiological and ecological significance of characterizing multiple foliar cohorts during bud break and throughout the growth season, and for cumulative C uptake model estimates.« less

A 'two-tank' seasonal storage concept for solar space heating of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cha, B. K.; Connor, D. W.; Mueller, R. O.

This paper presents an analysis of a novel 'two-tank' water storage system, consisting of a large primary water tank for seasonal storage of solar energy plus a much smaller secondary water tank for storage of solar energy collected during the heating season. The system offers the advantages of high collection efficiency during the early stages of the heating season, a period when the temperature of the primary tank is generally high. By preferentially drawing energy from the small secondary tank to meet load, its temperature can be kept well below that of the larger primary tank, thereby providing a lower-temperature source for collector inlet fluid. The resulting improvement in annual system efficiency through the addition of a small secondary tank is found to be substantial - for the site considered in the paper (Madison, Wisconsin), the relative percentage gain in annual performance is in the range of 10 to 20%. A simple computer model permits accurate hour-by-hour transient simulation of thermal performance over a yearly cycle. The paper presents results of detailed simulations of collectors and storage sizing and design trade-offs for solar energy systems supplying 90% to 100% of annual heating load requirements.

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bouska, Kristen; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Lant, Christopher; Schoof, Justin

2018-01-01

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

A further contribution to the seasonal variation of weighted mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Maohua; Hu, Wusheng

2017-12-01

The weighted mean temperature Tm is a variable parameter in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology and the Askne-Nordius zenith wet delay (ZWD) model. Some parameters about the Tm seasonal variation (e.g. the annual mean value, the annual range, the annual and semi-annual amplitudes, and the long-term trend) were discussed before. In this study, some additional results about the Tm seasonal variation on a global scale were found by using the Tm time series at 309 global radiosonde sites. Periodic signals of the annual and semi-annual variations were detected in these Tm time series by using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram. The annual variation is the main component of the periodic Tm in non-tropical regions, while the annual variation or the semiannual variation can be the main component of the periodic Tm in tropics. The mean annual Tm almost keeps constant with the increasing latitude in tropics, while it decreases with the increasing latitude in non-tropical regions. From a global perspective, Tm has an increasing trend of 0.22 K/decade on average, which may be caused by the global warming effects. The annual phase is almost found in about January for the non-tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere and in about July for the non-tropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere, but it has no clear symmetry in tropics. Unlike the annual phase, the geographical distributions of semi-annual phase do not follow obvious rules. In non-tropical regions, the maximum and minimum Tm of the seasonal model are usually found in respective summer and winter days while the maximum and minimum Tm are distributed over a whole year but not in any fixed seasons for tropical regions. The seasonal model errors increase with the increasing value of annual amplitude. A primary reason for the irregular seasonal variation in tropics is that Tm has rather small variations in this region.

The impact of temperature on the bionomics of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti, with special reference to the cool geographic range margins.

PubMed

Eisen, Lars; Monaghan, Andrew J; Lozano-Fuentes, Saul; Steinhoff, Daniel F; Hayden, Mary H; Bieringer, Paul E

2014-05-01

The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.), which occurs widely in the subtropics and tropics, is the primary urban vector of dengue and yellow fever viruses, and an important vector of chikungunya virus. There is substantial interest in how climate change may impact the bionomics and pathogen transmission potential of this mosquito. This Forum article focuses specifically on the effects of temperature on the bionomics of Ae. aegypti, with special emphasis on the cool geographic range margins where future rising temperatures could facilitate population growth. Key aims are to: 1) broadly define intra-annual (seasonal) patterns of occurrence and abundance of Ae. aegypti, and their relation to climate conditions; 2) synthesize the existing quantitative knowledge of how temperature impacts the bionomics of different life stages of Ae. aegypti; 3) better define the temperature ranges for which existing population dynamics models for Ae. aegypti are likely to produce robust predictions; 4) explore potential impacts of climate warming on human risk for exposure to Ae. aegypti at its cool range margins; and 5) identify knowledge or data gaps that hinder our ability to predict risk of human exposure to Ae. aegypti at the cool margins of its geographic range now and in the future. We first outline basic scenarios for intra-annual occurrence and abundance patterns for Ae. aegypti, and then show that these scenarios segregate with regard to climate conditions in selected cities where they occur. We then review how near-constant and intentionally fluctuating temperatures impact development times and survival of eggs and immatures. A subset of data, generated in controlled experimental studies, from the published literature is used to plot development rates and survival of eggs, larvae, and pupae in relation to water temperature. The general shape of the relationship between water temperature and development rate is similar for eggs, larvae, and pupae. Once the lower developmental zero temperature (10-14 degrees C) is exceeded, there is a near-linear relationship up to 30 degrees C. Above this temperature, the development rate is relatively stable or even decreases slightly before falling dramatically near the upper developmental zero temperature, which occurs at -38-42 degrees C. Based on life stage-specific linear relationships between water temperature and development rate in the 15-28 degrees C range, the lower developmental zero temperature is estimated to be 14.0 degrees C for eggs, 11.8 degrees C for larvae, and 10.3 degrees C for pupae. We further conclude that available population dynamics models for Ae. aegypti, such as CIMSiM and Skeeter Buster, likely produce robust predictions based on water temperatures in the 16-35 degrees C range, which includes the geographic areas where Ae. aegypti and its associated pathogens present the greatest threat to human health, but that they may be less reliable in cool range margins where water temperatures regularly fall below 15 degrees C. Finally, we identify knowledge or data gaps that hinder our ability to predict risk of human exposure to Ae. aegypti at the cool margins of its range, now and in the future, based on impacts on mosquito population dynamics of temperature and other important factors, such as water nutrient content, larval density, presence of biological competitors, and human behavior.

Seasonal Variations Preserved in an Extinct Neogene Scallop, Chesapecten, from Florida to Delaware, USA and its Implications for Paleobiogeography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goewert, A. E.; Surge, D.

2007-12-01

High-resolution records of climate variability on deep-time scales are needed to advance our understanding of the impact of a warming climate on seasonality and ecological change along a latitudinal gradient. The Middle Pliocene Warm Interval (MPWI: 3.2-2.8 Ma) provides insight into a globally warmer world, in which, relative to today, continental and oceanic configurations and atmospheric CO2 levels were similar; sea and continental ice were reduced; and interiors of continents were arid. Accretionary hard parts of marine organisms serve as physical (growth lines and increments) and chemical (87Sr/86Sr, δ18 O and δ13C) archives of life history, ecology, and environmental conditions during the life of the animal. Our goal was to examine variations in seasonality across latitudinal (~27° to37°N) and biogeographic (tropical to cold-­temperate) gradients of the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain (MACP) during two intervals of warming: the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum (MMCO: 17-­15 Ma) and the Middle Pliocene Warm Interval (MPWI: 3.2-2.8 Ma). We analyzed variations in annual shell growth and isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr, δ18O and δ13C) of 12 Chesapecten shells from the extremes of their biogeographic range (tropical to warm- temperate) (MMCO: Florida and Delaware; and MPWI: Florida and Virginia). Today, Florida is warm-temperate, and Delaware and Virginia are cold-temperate. Chesapecten are an extinct genus of scallop commonly preserved in MAPC deposits. They inhabited subtidal marine environments during the Miocene and Pliocene. We used 87Sr/86Sr ratios to tightly refine the timing and modeled age of the MMCO and MPWI. Modeled ages across Chesapecten's biogeographic extremes include: Florida (MMCO) 15.5 to 14.1±0.6 Ma; Delaware (MMCO) 18.0 to 17.5±0.4 Ma; Florida (MPWI) 3.75 to 2.05±0.9 Ma; and Virginia (MPWI) 2.45 to 1.65±0.4 Ma. We estimated seasonal temperature from the δ18O time series assuming interglacial δ18OSEAWATER values of -0.05‰ and -0.35‰ for the MMCO (Florida and Delaware, respectively) and 0.96‰ and -0.50‰ for the MPWI (Florida and Virginia, respectively), accounting for latitudinal effects. Temperatures during the MMCO from Florida shells ranged from 19.7 to 31.4°C, and from Delaware shells ranged from 13.3 to 26.1°C. These data reflect diminished seasonality from Florida to Delaware at that time. Prominant annual growth lines were not apparent in these shells, a common characteristic in tropical shells. Like the MMCO temperature estimates, temperature recorded in MPWI shells from Florida lacked seasonal variability, as expected from low latitudes, with temperatures ranging from 15.6 to 21.3°C. Furthermore, like the MMCO shells, prominent annual growth lines were not evident. MPWI shells from Virginia displayed seasonal temperatures from 2.7 to 20.1°C indicating warm- temperate conditions. We predicted annual growth line formation during summer months based on studies that show modern warm-temperate bivalves inhabiting mid to high latitudes form annual growth lines during summer months. However, isotope sclerochronology revealed that these scallops produced winter growth lines. These findings have important implications for paleoceanographic and atmospheric circulation during the MPWI.

Thermal regime of warm-dry permafrost in relation to ground surface temperature in the Source Areas of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, SW China.

PubMed

Luo, Dongliang; Jin, Huijun; Wu, Qingbai; Bense, Victor F; He, Ruixia; Ma, Qiang; Gao, Shuhui; Jin, Xiaoying; Lü, Lanzhi

2018-03-15

Ecology, hydrology, and natural resources in the source areas of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers (SAYYR) are closely linked to interactions between climate and permafrost. However, a comprehensive study of the interactions is currently hampered by sparsely- and unevenly-distributed monitoring sites and limited field investigations. In this study, the thermal regime of warm-dry permafrost in the SAYYR was systematically analyzed based on extensive data collected during 2010-2016 of air temperature (T a ), ground surface temperature (GST) and ground temperature across a range of areas with contrasting land-surface characteristics. Mean annual T a (MAAT) and mean annual GST (MAGST) were regionally averaged at -3.19±0.71°C and -0.40±1.26°C. There is a close relationship between GST and T a (R 2 =0.8477) as obtained by a linear regression analysis with all available daily averages. The mean annual temperature at the bottom of the active layer (T TOP ) was regionally averaged at -0.72±1.01°C and mostly in the range of -1.0°C and 0°C except at Chalaping (~-2.0°C). Surface offset (MAGST-MAAT) was regionally averaged at 2.54±0.71°C. Thermal offset (T TOP -MAGST) was regionally averaged at -0.17±0.84°C, which was generally within -0.5°C and 0.5°C. Relatively consistent thermal conductivity between the thawed and frozen states of the soils may be responsible for the small thermal offset. Active layer thickness was generally smaller at Chalaping than that on other parts of the QTP, presumably due to smaller climatic continentality index and the thermal dampening of surface temperature variability under the presence of dense vegetation and thick peaty substrates. We conclude that the accurate mapping of permafrost on the rugged elevational QTP could be potentially obtained by correlating the parameters of GST, thermal offset, and temperature gradient in the shallow permafrost. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil CO2 efflux from two mountain forests in the eastern Himalayas, Bhutan: components and controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wangdi, Norbu; Mayer, Mathias; Prasad Nirola, Mani; Zangmo, Norbu; Orong, Karma; Uddin Ahmed, Iftekhar; Darabant, Andras; Jandl, Robert; Gratzer, Georg; Schindlbacher, Andreas

2017-01-01

The biogeochemistry of mountain forests in the Hindu Kush Himalaya range is poorly studied, although climate change is expected to disproportionally affect the region. We measured the soil CO2 efflux (Rs) at a high-elevation (3260 m) mixed forest and a lower-elevation (2460 m) broadleaf forest in Bhutan, eastern Himalayas, during 2015. Trenching was applied to estimate the contribution of autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic (Rh) soil respiration. The temperature (Q10) and the moisture sensitivities of Rh were determined under controlled laboratory conditions and were used to model Rh in the field. The higher-elevation mixed forest had a higher standing tree stock, reflected in higher soil C stocks and basal soil respiration. Annual Rs was similar between the two forest sites (14.5 ± 1.2 t C ha-1 for broadleaf; 12.8 ± 1.0 t C ha-1 for mixed). Modelled annual contribution of Rh was ˜ 65 % of Rs at both sites with a higher heterotrophic contribution during winter and lower contribution during the monsoon season. Rh, estimated from trenching, was in the range of modelled Rh but showed higher temporal variability. The measured temperature sensitivity of Rh was similar at the mixed and broadleaf forest sites (Q10 2.2-2.3) under intermediate soil moisture but decreased (Q10 1.5 at both sites) in dry soil. Rs closely followed the annual course of field soil temperature at both sites. Covariation between soil temperature and moisture (cold dry winters and warm wet summers) was likely the main cause for this close relationship. Under the prevailing weather conditions, a simple temperature-driven model was able to explain more than 90 % of the temporal variation in Rs. A longer time series and/or experimental climate manipulations are required to understand the effects of eventually occurring climate extremes such as monsoon failures.

Effects of regional temperature on electric vehicle efficiency, range, and emissions in the United States.

PubMed

Yuksel, Tugce; Michalek, Jeremy J

2015-03-17

We characterize the effect of regional temperature differences on battery electric vehicle (BEV) efficiency, range, and use-phase power plant CO2 emissions in the U.S. The efficiency of a BEV varies with ambient temperature due to battery efficiency and cabin climate control. We find that annual energy consumption of BEVs can increase by an average of 15% in the Upper Midwest or in the Southwest compared to the Pacific Coast due to temperature differences. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from BEVs vary primarily with marginal regional grid mix, which has three times the GHG intensity in the Upper Midwest as on the Pacific Coast. However, even within a grid region, BEV emissions vary by up to 22% due to spatial and temporal ambient temperature variation and its implications for vehicle efficiency and charging duration and timing. Cold climate regions also encounter days with substantial reduction in EV range: the average range of a Nissan Leaf on the coldest day of the year drops from 70 miles on the Pacific Coast to less than 45 miles in the Upper Midwest. These regional differences are large enough to affect adoption patterns and energy and environmental implications of BEVs relative to alternatives.

Spatial analysis of annual mean stable isotopes in precipitation across Japan based on an intensive observation period throughout 2013.

PubMed

Ichiyanagi, Kimpei; Tanoue, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Spatial distribution of annual mean stable isotopes in precipitation (δ(18)O, δ(2)H) was observed at 56 sites across Japan throughout 2013. Annual mean δ(18)O values showed a strong latitude effect, from -12.4 ‰ in the north to -5.1 ‰ in the south. Annual mean d-excess values ranged from 8 to 21 ‰, and values on the Sea of Japan side in Northern and Eastern Japan were relatively higher than those on the Pacific Ocean side. The local meteoric water line (LMWL) and isotope effects were based on the annual mean values from all sites across Japan as divided into distinct regions: the Sea of Japan side to the Pacific Ocean side and Northeastern to Southwestern Japan. Slopes and intercepts of LMWL ranged from 7.4 to 7.8 and 9.8 to 13.0, respectively. Slopes for latitude, altitude, and temperature effects ranged from -0.27 to -0.48 ‰/°N, -0.0034 to -0.0053 ‰/m, and 0.36 to 0.46 ‰/°C, respectively, with statistically significance at the 99 % level. However, there was no precipitation amount effect. From the result of a multiple regression analysis, the empirical formula of annual mean δ(18)O in precipitation from latitude and altitude for all sites across Japan was determined to be δ(18) O = -0.348 (LAT) - 0.00307 (ALT) + 4.29 (R(2) = 0.59). Slopes for latitude and altitude ranged from - 0.28 to - 0.51, and - 0.0019 to - 0.0045, respectively. Even though site distribution was uneven, these equations are the first trial estimation for annual mean stable isotopes in precipitation across Japan. Further research performed on the monthly basis is required to elucidate factors controlling the spatiotemporal variability of stable isotopes in precipitation across Japan.

Including Effects of Water Stress on Dead Organic Matter Decay to a Forest Carbon Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Lee, J.; Han, S. H.; Kim, S.; Son, Y.

2017-12-01

Decay of dead organic matter is a key process of carbon (C) cycling in forest ecosystems. The change in decay rate depends on temperature sensitivity and moisture conditions. The Forest Biomass and Dead organic matter Carbon (FBDC) model includes a decay sub-model considering temperature sensitivity, yet does not consider moisture conditions as drivers of the decay rate change. This study aimed to improve the FBDC model by including a water stress function to the decay sub-model. Also, soil C sequestration under climate change with the FBDC model including the water stress function was simulated. The water stress functions were determined with data from decomposition study on Quercus variabilis forests and Pinus densiflora forests of Korea, and adjustment parameters of the functions were determined for both species. The water stress functions were based on the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Including the water stress function increased the explained variances of the decay rate by 19% for the Q. variabilis forests and 7% for the P. densiflora forests, respectively. The increase of the explained variances resulted from large difference in temperature range and precipitation range across the decomposition study plots. During the period of experiment, the mean annual temperature range was less than 3°C, while the annual precipitation ranged from 720mm to 1466mm. Application of the water stress functions to the FBDC model constrained increasing trend of temperature sensitivity under climate change, and thus increased the model-estimated soil C sequestration (Mg C ha-1) by 6.6 for the Q. variabilis forests and by 3.1 for the P. densiflora forests, respectively. The addition of water stress functions increased reliability of the decay rate estimation and could contribute to reducing the bias in estimating soil C sequestration under varying moisture condition. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by Korea Forest Service (2017044B10-1719-BB01)

Environmental determinants of the spatial distribution of Echinococcus multilocularis in Hungary.

PubMed

Tolnai, Z; Széll, Z; Sréter, T

2013-12-06

Human alveolar echinococcosis, caused by the metacestode stage of Echinococcus multilocularis, is one of the most pathogenic zoonoses in the temperate and arctic region of the Northern Hemisphere. To investigate the spatial distribution of E. multilocularis and the factors influencing this distribution in the recently identified endemic area of Hungary, 1612 red fox (Vulpes vulpes) carcasses were randomly collected from the whole Hungarian territory from November 2008 to February 2009 and from November 2012 to February 2013. The topographic positions of foxes were recorded in geographic information system database. The digitized home ranges and the vector data were used to calculate the altitude, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, soil water retention, soil permeability, areas of land cover types and the presence and buffer zone of permanent water bodies within the fox territories. The intestinal mucosa from all the foxes was tested by sedimentation and counting technique. Multiple regression analysis was performed with environmental parameter values and E. multilocularis counts. The spatial distribution of the parasite was clumped. Based on statistical analysis, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation were the major determinants of the spatial distribution of E. multilocularis in Hungary. It can be attributed to the sensitivity of E. multilocularis eggs to high temperatures and desiccation. Although spreading and emergence of the parasite was observed in Hungary before 2009, the prevalence and intensity of infection did not change significantly between the two collection periods. It can be explained by the considerably lower annual precipitation before the second collection period. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dust deposition in southern Nevada and California, 1984-1989: Relations to climate, source area, and source lithology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reheis, Marith C.; Kihl, Rolf

1995-05-01

Dust samples collected annually for 5 years from 55 sites in southern Nevada and California provide the first regional source of information on modern rates of dust deposition, grain size, and mineralogical and chemical composition relative to climate and to type and lithology of dust source. The average silt and clay flux (rate of deposition) in southern Nevada and southeastern California ranges from 4.3 to 15.7 g/m2/yr, but in southwestern California the average silt and clay flux is as high as 30 g/m2/yr. The climatic factors that affect dust flux interact with each other and with the factors of source type (playas versus alluvium), source lithology, geographic area, and human disturbance. Average dust flux increases with mean annual temperature but is not correlated to decreases in mean annual precipitation because the regional winds bring dust to relatively wet areas. In contrast, annual dust flux mostly reflects changes in annual precipitation (relative drought) rather than temperature. Although playa and alluvial sources produce about the same amount of dust per unit area, the total volume of dust from the more extensive alluvial sources is much larger. In addition, playa and alluvial sources respond differently to annual changes in precipitation. Most playas produce dust that is richer in soluble salts and carbonate than that from alluvial sources (except carbonate-rich alluvium). Gypsum dust may be produced by the interaction of carbonate dust and anthropogenic or marine sulfates. The dust flux in an arid urbanizing area may be as much as twice that before disturbance but decreases when construction stops. The mineralogic and major-oxide composition of the dust samples indicates that sand and some silt is locally derived and deposited, whereas clay and some silt from different sources can be far-traveled. Dust deposited in the Transverse Ranges of California by the Santa Ana winds appears to be mainly derived from sources to the north and east.

Arctic Climate and Terrestrial Vegetation Responses During the Middle to Late Eocene and Early Oligocene: Colder Winters Preceded Cool-Down.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenwood, D. R.; Eldrett, J.

2006-12-01

The late Eocene to early Oligocene is recognized as an interval of substantial change in the global climate, with isotopic proxies of climate indicating a significant drop in sea surface temperatures. Other studies have shown, however that at middle latitudes that terrestrial mean annual temperature did not change significantly over this interval, and that the major change was likely a shift towards a greater range of seasonal temperatures; colder winters and warmer summers. Previous analyses of high latitude (Arctic) middle Eocene climate using both leaf physiognomic analysis and qualitative analysis of identified nearest living relatives of terrestrial floras indicated upper microthermal environments (mean annual temp. or MAT ca 10°C but perhaps as high as 15°C, coldest month mean temp. or CMMT ca 0°C) for Axel Heiberg Island in the Arctic Archipelago, but did not address precipitation nor provide data on the Eocene-Oligocene transition in the Arctic. Presented here are new estimates of temperature and precipitation (annual and season amounts) for the Arctic based on NLR analysis of terrestrial plant palynomorphs (spores and pollen) from the ODP 913B and 985 cores from near Greenland. The record of climate for the Greenland cores show a similar climate in the middle Eocene to that previously estimated for Axel Heiberg Island further to the west, with MAT 10- 15°C but with CMMT >5°C. Precipitation was high (mean annual precip. or MAP >180 cm/yr), although with large uncertainties attached to the estimate. The climate proxy record for the late Eocene to early Oligocene shows a lack of change in MAT and MAP over the time interval. Consistent with other published records at middle latitudes, however, winter temperatures (as CMMT) show greater variability leading up to the E-O boundary, and consistently cooler values in the early Oligocene (CMMT <5°C) than recorded for most of the middle to late Eocene record (CMMT >5°C). Plant groups sensitive to freezing such as palms and the floating water fern Azolla were present in the warm parts of the record, but are absent from the latest Eocene and early Oligocene record. These data provide further evidence that the primary change in the global climate system in the E-O transition was a shift towards more extreme seasonal temperature ranges, rather than a drop in the mean temperature.

Reconstructing seasonal climate from high-resolution carbon and oxygen isotope measurements across tree rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, B.; Jahren, H.

2014-12-01

Intra-annual records of carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope measurements across tree rings reveal significant changes in δ13C and δ18O value across each growing season. We previously found that across a broad range of climate regimes, the seasonal change in δ13C measured within tree rings reflects changes in seasonal precipitation amount, and demonstrated its utility for quantifying seasonal paleo-precipitation from non-permineralized, fossil wood. Here we produce an equation relating intra-ring changes in δ18O to seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation amount, but the equation yields for unknowns (summer and winter precipitation amounts, and cold and warm month mean temperatures). By combining high-resolution δ13C and δ18O records with independent estimates of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, we show how our general, global relationships could be used to quantify seasonal climate information from fossil sites. We validate our approach using high-resolution δ13C and δ18O data from trees growing at five modern sites (Hawaii, Alaska, Norway, Guyana, and Kenya). The reconstructed estimates of seasonal precipitation and temperature showed excellent agreement with the known climate data for each site (precipitation: R2 = 0.98; temperature: R2 = 0.91). These results confirm that across diverse sites and tree species, seasonal climate information can be accurately quantified using a combination of carbon and oxygen intra-ring isotope profiles.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

Seasonal body size reductions with warming covary with major body size gradients in arthropod species.

PubMed

Horne, Curtis R; Hirst, Andrew G; Atkinson, David

2017-03-29

Major biological and biogeographical rules link body size variation with latitude or environmental temperature, and these rules are often studied in isolation. Within multivoltine species, seasonal temperature variation can cause substantial changes in adult body size, as subsequent generations experience different developmental conditions. Yet, unlike other size patterns, these common seasonal temperature-size gradients have never been collectively analysed. We undertake the largest analysis to date of seasonal temperature-size gradients in multivoltine arthropods, including 102 aquatic and terrestrial species from 71 global locations. Adult size declines in warmer seasons in 86% of the species examined. Aquatic species show approximately 2.5-fold greater reduction in size per °C of warming than terrestrial species, supporting the hypothesis that greater oxygen limitation in water than in air forces aquatic species to exhibit greater plasticity in body size with temperature. Total percentage change in size over the annual cycle appears relatively constant with annual temperature range but varies between environments, such that the overall size reduction in aquatic-developing species (approx. 31%) is almost threefold greater than in terrestrial species (approx. 11%). For the first time, we show that strong correlations exist between seasonal temperature-size gradients, laboratory responses and latitudinal-size clines, suggesting that these patterns share common drivers. © 2017 The Author(s).

Rodents and climate: A new model for estimating past temperatures [rapid communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legendre, Serge; Montuire, Sophie; Maridet, Olivier; Escarguel, Gilles

2005-06-01

Based on the high correlation between species richness in sigmodontine rodents and temperatures, we propose a new model in order to quantify past climates. Because of the close phylogenetic relationship and the tooth morphological similarity between extant New World cricetids (Sigmodontinae) and fossil European cricetids (Cricetinae s.l.), extant New World sigmodontines are taken as analogues for Old World fossil cricetines. Sigmodontine species richness has been compiled for 282 extant local faunas from North, Central and South America, with corresponding climatic data (temperatures and precipitations). There is almost no correlation between areas covered by local faunas (ranging from 1 km 2 up to 46,000 km 2) and numbers of sigmodontine species in localities ( R2 = 0.027). Number of sigmodontine species in local faunas and mean annual daily temperatures are highly correlated ( R2 = 0.88). The relationships of species richness and precipitation is low ( R2 = 0.19 for mean annual precipitation). The method is exemplified for Old World cricetines using well documented Miocene rodent faunas located in the Lyon area (France MN4-5 to MN10).

Pliocene Seasonality along the US Atlantic Coastal Plain Inferred from Growth Increment Analysis of Mercenaria carolinensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelstern, I. Z.; Surge, D. M.

2010-12-01

Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) data from the US Atlantic coastal plain is currently insufficient for a detailed understanding of the climatic shifts that occurred during the period. Previous studies, based on oxygen isotope proxy data from marine shells and bryozoan zooid size analysis, have provided constraints on possible annual-scale SST ranges for the region. However, more data are required to fully understand the forcing mechanisms affecting regional Pliocene climate and evaluate modeled temperature projections. Bivalve sclerochronology (growth increment analysis) is an alternative proxy for SST that can provide annually resolved multi-year time series. The method has been validated in previous studies using modern Arctica, Chione, and Mercenaria. We analyzed Pliocene Mercenaria carolinensis shells using sclerochronologic methods and tested the hypothesis that higher SST ranges are reflected in shells selected from the warmest climate interval (3.5-3.3 Ma, upper Yorktown Formation, Virginia) and lower SST ranges are observable in shells selected from the subsequent cooling interval (2.4-1.8 Ma, Chowan River Formation, North Carolina). These results further establish the validity of growth increment analysis using fossil shells and provide the first large dataset (from the region) of reconstructed annual SST from floating time series during these intervals. These data will enhance our knowledge about a warm climate state that has been identified in the 2007 IPCC report as an analogue for expected global warming. Future work will expand this study to include sampling in Florida to gain detailed information about Pliocene SST along a latitudinal gradient.

Global Mean Temperature Timeseries Projections from GCMs: The Implications of Rebasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Global climate models are assessed by comparison with observations through several benchmarks. One highlighted by the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is their ability to reproduce "general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes over the historical period" [1,2] and to simulate "a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend" [3]. These aspects of annual mean global mean temperature (GMT) change are presented as one feature demonstrating the relevance of these models for climate projections. Here we consider a formal interpretation of "general features" and discuss the implications of this approach to model assessment and intercomparison, for the interpretation of GCM projections. Following the IPCC, we interpret a major element of "general features" as being the slow timescale response to external forcings. (Shorter timescale behaviour such as the response to volcanic eruptions are also elements of "general features" but are not considered here.) Also following the IPCC, we consider only GMT anomalies. The models have absolute temperatures which range over about 3K so this means their timeseries (and the observations) are rebased. We show that rebasing in combination with general agreement, implies a separation of scales which limits the degree to which sub-global behaviour can feedback on the global response. It also implies a degree of linearity in the GMT slow timescale response. For each individual model these implications only apply over the range of absolute temperatures simulated by the model in historic simulations. Taken together, however, they imply consequences over a wider range of GMTs. [1] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary: Stocker et al. 2013. [2] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 9 - "Evaluation of Climate Models": Flato et al. 2013. [3] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC, 2013.

Pattern of xylem phenology in conifers of cold ecosystems at the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Rossi, Sergio; Anfodillo, Tommaso; Čufar, Katarina; Cuny, Henri E; Deslauriers, Annie; Fonti, Patrick; Frank, David; Gričar, Jožica; Gruber, Andreas; Huang, Jian-Guo; Jyske, Tuula; Kašpar, Jakub; King, Gregory; Krause, Cornelia; Liang, Eryuan; Mäkinen, Harri; Morin, Hubert; Nöjd, Pekka; Oberhuber, Walter; Prislan, Peter; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K; Saracino, Antonio; Swidrak, Irene; Treml, Václav

2016-11-01

The interaction between xylem phenology and climate assesses forest growth and productivity and carbon storage across biomes under changing environmental conditions. We tested the hypothesis that patterns of wood formation are maintained unaltered despite the temperature changes across cold ecosystems. Wood microcores were collected weekly or biweekly throughout the growing season for periods varying between 1 and 13 years during 1998-2014 and cut in transverse sections for assessing the onset and ending of the phases of xylem differentiation. The data set represented 1321 trees belonging to 10 conifer species from 39 sites in the Northern Hemisphere and covering an interval of mean annual temperature exceeding 14 K. The phenological events and mean annual temperature of the sites were related linearly, with spring and autumnal events being separated by constant intervals across the range of temperature analysed. At increasing temperature, first enlarging, wall-thickening and mature tracheids appeared earlier, and last enlarging and wall-thickening tracheids occurred later. Overall, the period of wood formation lengthened linearly with the mean annual temperature, from 83.7 days at -2 °C to 178.1 days at 12 °C, at a rate of 6.5 days °C -1 . April-May temperatures produced the best models predicting the dates of wood formation. Our findings demonstrated the uniformity of the process of wood formation and the importance of the environmental conditions occurring at the time of growth resumption. Under warming scenarios, the period of wood formation might lengthen synchronously in the cold biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Douglas-fir displays a range of growth responses to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) growth in the Pacific Northwest is affected by climatic, edaphic factors and Swiss needle cast (SNC) disease. We examine Douglas-fir growth responses to temperature, dewpoint deficit (DPD), soil moisture, and SNC using time series intervention analysis of intra-annual tree-ring width data collected at nine forest stands in western Oregon, USA. The effects of temperature and SNC were similar in importance on tree growth at all sites. Previous-year DPD during the annual drought period was a key factor limiting growth regionally. Winter temperature was more important at high elevation cool sites, whereas summer temperature was more important at warm and dry sites. Growth rate increased with summer temperature to an optimum (Topt) then decreased at higher temperatures. At drier sites, temperature and water affected growth interactively such that Topt decreased with decreasing summer soil moisture. With climate change, growth rates increased at high elevation sites and declined at mid-elevation inland sites since ~1990. Growth response to climate is masked by SNC regionally. We conclude that as temperature rises and precipitation patterns shift towards wetter winters and drier summers, Douglas-fir will experience greater temperature and water stress and an increase in severity of SNC. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters in the Pac

Trends in summer bottom-water temperatures on the northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf from 1985 to 2015.

PubMed

Turner, R Eugene; Rabalais, Nancy N; Justić, Dubravko

2017-01-01

We quantified trends in the 1985 to 2015 summer bottom-water temperature on the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) continental shelf for data collected at 88 stations with depths ranging from 3 to 63 m. The analysis was supplemented with monthly data collected from 1963 to 1965 in the same area. The seasonal summer peak in average bottom-water temperature varied concurrently with air temperature, but with a 2- to 5-month lag. The summer bottom-water temperature declined gradually with depth from 30 oC at stations closest to the shore, to 20 oC at the offshore edge of the study area, and increased an average 0.051 oC y-1 between1963 and 2015. The bottom-water warming in summer for all stations was 1.9 times faster compared to the rise in local summer air temperatures, and 6.4 times faster than the concurrent increase in annual global ocean sea surface temperatures. The annual rise in average summer bottom-water temperatures on the subtropical nGOM continental shelf is comparable to the few published temperature trend estimates from colder environments. These recent changes in the heat storage on the nGOM continental shelf will affect oxygen and carbon cycling, spatial distribution of fish and shrimp, and overall species diversity.

Late-twentieth century changes in glacier extent in the Ak-shirak Range, Central Asia, determined from historical data and ASTER imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khromova, T. E.; Dyurgerov, M. B.; Barry, R. G.

2003-08-01

Global analysis of glacier regimes reveals widespread wastage since the late 1970s, with a marked acceleration in the late 1980s. We investigate changes in the heavily glacierized Ak-shirak Range, central Tien Shan plateau (43°N, 75°E) using air photo mapping surveys (1943 and 1977), an ASTER imagery (2001), and long term glaciological and meteorological observations. The wasting of the Ak-shirak glacier system features a decrease in average glacier size, and an increase in the area of outcrops. A small shrinkage during 1943-1977 was followed by a greater than 20% reduction during 1977-2001 in response to increases in summer and annual air temperature and decreases in annual precipitation.

[Geographical distribution of the Serum creatinine reference values of healthy adults].

PubMed

Wei, De-Zhi; Ge, Miao; Wang, Cong-Xia; Lin, Qian-Yi; Li, Meng-Jiao; Li, Peng

2016-11-20

To explore the relationship between serum creatinine (Scr) reference values in healthy adults and geographic factors and provide evidence for establishing Scr reference values in different regions. We collected 29 697 Scr reference values from healthy adults measured by 347 medical facilities from 23 provinces, 4 municipalities and 5 autonomous regions. We chose 23 geographical factors and analyzed their correlation with Scr reference values to identify the factors correlated significantly with Scr reference values. According to the Principal component analysis and Ridge regression analysis, two predictive models were constructed and the optimal model was chosen after comparison of the two model's fitting degree of predicted results and measured results. The distribution map of Scr reference values was drawn using the Kriging interpolation method. Seven geographic factors, including latitude, annual sunshine duration, annual average temperature, annual average relative humidity, annual precipitation, annual temperature range and topsoil (silt) cation exchange capacity were found to correlate significantly with Scr reference values. The overall distribution of Scr reference values featured a pattern that the values were high in the south and low in the north, varying consistently with the latitude change. The data of the geographic factors in a given region allows the prediction of the Scr values in healthy adults. Analysis of these geographical factors can facilitate the determination of the reference values specific to a region to improve the accuracy for clinical diagnoses.

Tundra ecosystems observed to be CO2 sources due to differential amplification of the carbon cycle.

PubMed

Belshe, E F; Schuur, E A G; Bolker, B M

2013-10-01

Are tundra ecosystems currently a carbon source or sink? What is the future trajectory of tundra carbon fluxes in response to climate change? These questions are of global importance because of the vast quantities of organic carbon stored in permafrost soils. In this meta-analysis, we compile 40 years of CO2 flux observations from 54 studies spanning 32 sites across northern high latitudes. Using time-series analysis, we investigated if seasonal or annual CO2 fluxes have changed over time, and whether spatial differences in mean annual temperature could help explain temporal changes in CO2 flux. Growing season net CO2 uptake has definitely increased since the 1990s; the data also suggest (albeit less definitively) an increase in winter CO2 emissions, especially in the last decade. In spite of the uncertainty in the winter trend, we estimate that tundra sites were annual CO2 sources from the mid-1980s until the 2000s, and data from the last 7 years show that tundra continue to emit CO2 annually. CO2 emissions exceed CO2 uptake across the range of temperatures that occur in the tundra biome. Taken together, these data suggest that despite increases in growing season uptake, tundra ecosystems are currently CO2 sources on an annual basis. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall data using GIS and time series analysis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Md. Rejaur; Lateh, Habibah

2017-04-01

In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80-2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20-2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971-2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (-0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (-0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011-2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.

[Multi-temporal scale analysis of impacts of extreme high temperature on net carbon uptake in subtropical coniferous plantation.

PubMed

Zhang, Mi; Wen, Xue Fa; Zhang, Lei Ming; Wang, Hui Min; Guo, Yi Wen; Yu, Gui Rui

2018-02-01

Extreme high temperature is one of important extreme weathers that impact forest ecosystem carbon cycle. In this study, applying CO 2 flux and routine meteorological data measured during 2003-2012, we examined the impacts of extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event on net carbon uptake of subtropical coniferous plantation in Qianyanzhou. Combining with wavelet analysis, we analyzed environmental controls on net carbon uptake at different temporal scales, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event happened. The results showed that mean daily cumulative NEE decreased by 51% in the days with daily maximum air temperature range between 35 ℃ and 40 ℃, compared with that in the days with the range between 30 ℃ and 34 ℃. The effects of the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event on monthly NEE and annual NEE related to the strength and duration of extreme high tempe-rature event. In 2003, when strong extreme high temperature event happened, the sum of monthly cumulative NEE in July and August was only -11.64 g C·m -2 ·(2 month) -1 . The value decreased by 90%, compared with multi-year average value. At the same time, the relative variation of annual NEE reached -6.7%. In July and August, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event occurred, air temperature (T a ) and vapor press deficit (VPD) were the dominant controller for the daily variation of NEE. The coherency between NEE T a and NEE VPD was 0.97 and 0.95, respectively. At 8-, 16-, and 32-day periods, T a , VPD, soil water content at 5 cm depth (SWC), and precipitation (P) controlled NEE. The coherency between NEE SWC and NEE P was higher than 0.8 at monthly scale. The results indicated that atmospheric water deficit impacted NEE at short temporal scale, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event occurred, both of atmospheric water deficit and soil drought stress impacted NEE at long temporal scales in this ecosystem.

The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterkamp, T. E.

2005-12-01

This paper reports results of an experiment initiated in 1977 to determine the effects of climate on permafrost in Alaska. Permafrost observatories with boreholes were established along a north-south transect of Alaska in undisturbed permafrost terrain. The analysis and interpretation of annual temperature measurements in the boreholes and daily temperature measurements of the air, ground and permafrost surfaces made with automated temperature loggers are reported. Permafrost temperatures warmed along this transect coincident with a statewide warming of air temperatures that began in 1977. At two sites on the Arctic Coastal Plain, the warming was seasonal, greatest during "winter" months (October through May) and least during "summer" months (June through September). Permafrost temperatures peaked in the early 1980s and then decreased in response to slightly cooler air temperatures and thinner snow covers. Arctic sites began warming again typically about 1986 and Interior Alaska sites about 1988. Gulkana, the southernmost site, has been warming slowly since it was drilled in 1983. Air temperatures were relatively warm and snow covers were thicker-than-normal from the late 1980s into the late 1990s allowing permafrost temperatures to continue to warm. Temperatures at some sites leveled off or cooled slightly at the turn of the century. Two sites (Yukon River Bridge and Livengood) cooled during the period of observations. The magnitude of the total warming at the surface of the permafrost (through 2003) was 3 to 4 °C for the Arctic Coastal Plain, 1 to 2 °C for the Brooks Range including its northern and southern foothills, and 0.3 to 1 °C south of the Yukon River. While the data are sparse, permafrost is warming throughout the region north of the Brooks Range, southward along the transect from the Brooks Range to the Chugach Mountains (except for Yukon River and Livengood), in Interior Alaska throughout the Tanana River region, and in the region south of the Alaska Range from Tok westward to Gulkana (in the Copper River Valley) and beyond to the Talkeetna Mountains. Thermal offset allows permafrost to survive in the presence of positive annual mean ground surface temperatures and was observed repeatedly since 1987 at two sites. The observed warming has not produced an increasing trend in maximum active layer thicknesses due to its seasonality. Near Healy, permafrost has been thawing at the top since the late 1980s at about 10 cm/yr. At Gulkana, permafrost was thawing from the bottom at a rate of 4 cm/yr that accelerated to 9 cm/yr after 2000.

Temperature effects on egg development and larval condition in the lesser sandeel, Ammodytes marinus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Régnier, Thomas; Gibb, Fiona M.; Wright, Peter J.

2018-04-01

Understanding the influence of temperature on egg development and larval condition in planktonic fish is a prerequisite to understanding the phenological impacts of climate change on marine food-webs. The lesser sandeel, Ammodytes marinus (Raitt 1934), is a key trophic link between zooplankton and many piscivorous fish, sea birds and mammals in the northeast Atlantic. Temperature-egg development relationships were determined for batches of lesser sandeel eggs. Hatching began as early as 19 days post fertilisation at 11 °C and as late as 36 days post fertilisation at 6 °C, which is faster than egg development rates reported for closely related species at the lower end of the tested temperature range. The average size of newly hatched larvae decreased with increasing incubation temperatures in early hatching larvae, but this effect was lost by the middle of the hatching period. While the study revealed important temperature effects on egg development rate, predicted variability based on the range of temperatures eggs experience in the field, suggests it is only a minor contributor to the observed inter-annual variation in hatch date.

[Urban heat island intensity and its grading in Liaoning Province of Northeast China].

PubMed

Li, Li-Guang; Wang, Hong-Bo; Jia, Qing-Yu; Lü, Guo-Hong; Wang, Xiao-Ying; Zhang, Yu-Shu; Ai, Jing-Feng

2012-05-01

According to the recorded air temperature data and their continuity of each weather station, the location of each weather station, the numbers of and the distances among the weather stations, and the records on the weather stations migration, several weather stations in Liaoning Province were selected as the urban and rural representative stations to study the characteristics of urban heat island (UHI) intensity in the province. Based on the annual and monthly air temperature data of the representative stations, the ranges and amplitudes of the UHI intensity were analyzed, and the grades of the UHI intensity were classified. The Tieling station, Dalian station, Anshan station, Chaoyang station, Dandong station, and Jinzhou station and the 18 stations including Tai' an station were selected as the representative urban and rural weather stations, respectively. In 1980-2009, the changes of the annual UHI intensity in the 6 representative cities differed. The annual UHI intensity in Tieling was in a decreasing trend, while that in the other five cities was in an increasing trend. The UHI intensity was strong in Tieling but weak in Dalian. The changes of the monthly UHI intensity in the 6 representative cities also differed. The distribution of the monthly UHI intensity in Dandong, Jinzhou and Tieling took a "U" shape, with the maximum and minimum appeared in January and in May-August, respectively, indicating that the monthly UHI intensity was strong in winter and weak in summer. The ranges of the annual and monthly UHI intensity in the 6 cities were 0.57-2.15 degrees C and -0.70-4.60 degrees C, and the ranges of 0.5-2.0 degrees C accounted for 97.8% and 72.3%, respectively. The UHI intensity in the province could be classified into 4 grades, i. e., weak, strong, stronger and strongest.

Nonannual tree rings in a climate-sensitive Prioria copaifera chronology in the Atrato River, Colombia.

PubMed

Herrera-Ramirez, David; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Del Valle, Jorge I; Santos, Guaciara M; Gonzalez, Paula L M

2017-08-01

In temperate climates, tree growth dormancy usually ensures the annual nature of tree rings, but in tropical environments, determination of annual periodicity can be more complex. The purposes of the work are as follows: (1) to generate a reliable tree-ring width chronology for Prioria copaifera Griseb. (Leguminoceae), a tropical tree species dwelling in the Atrato River floodplains, Colombia; (2) to assess the climate signal recorded by the tree-ring records; and (3) to validate the annual periodicity of the tree rings using independent methods. We used standard dendrochronological procedures to generate the P. copaifera tree-ring chronology. We used Pearson correlations to evaluate the relationship of the chronology with the meteorological records, climate regional indices, and gridded precipitation/sea surface temperature products. We also evaluated 24 high-precision 14 C measurements spread over a range of preselected tree rings, with assigned calendar years by dendrochronological techniques, before and after the bomb spike in order to validate the annual nature of the tree rings. The tree-ring width chronology was statistically reliable, and it correlated significantly with local records of annual and October-December (OND) streamflow and precipitation across the upper river watershed (positive), and OND temperature (negative). It was also significantly related to the Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Southern Oscillation Index, as well as sea surface temperatures over the Caribbean and the Pacific region. However, 14 C high-precision measurements over the tree rings demonstrated offsets of up to 40 years that indicate that P. copaifera can produce more than one ring in certain years. Results derived from the strongest climate-growth relationship during the most recent years of the record suggest that the climatic signal reported may be due to the presence of annual rings in some of those trees in recent years. Our study alerts about the risk of applying dendrochronology in species with challenging anatomical features defining tree rings, commonly found in the tropics, without an independent validation of annual periodicity of tree rings. High-precision 14 C measurements in multiple trees are a useful method to validate the identification of annual tree rings.

Interaction between stream temperature, streamflow, and groundwater exchanges in alpine streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, James E.

1998-01-01

Four alpine streams were monitored to continuously collect stream temperature and streamflow for periods ranging from a week to a year. In a small stream in the Colorado Rockies, diurnal variations in both stream temperature and streamflow were significantly greater in losing reaches than in gaining reaches, with minimum streamflow losses occurring early in the day and maximum losses occurring early in the evening. Using measured stream temperature changes, diurnal streambed infiltration rates were predicted to increase as much as 35% during the day (based on a heat and water transport groundwater model), while the measured increase in streamflow loss was 40%. For two large streams in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, annual stream temperature variations ranged from 0° to 25°C. In summer months, diurnal stream temperature variations were 30–40% of annual stream temperature variations, owing to reduced streamflows and increased atmospheric heating. Previous reports document that one Sierra stream site generally gains groundwater during low flows, while the second Sierra stream site may lose water during low flows. For August the diurnal streamflow variation was 11% at the gaining stream site and 30% at the losing stream site. On the basis of measured diurnal stream temperature variations, streambed infiltration rates were predicted to vary diurnally as much as 20% at the losing stream site. Analysis of results suggests that evapotranspiration losses determined diurnal streamflow variations in the gaining reaches, while in the losing reaches, evapotranspiration losses were compounded by diurnal variations in streambed infiltration. Diurnal variations in stream temperature were reduced in the gaining reaches as a result of discharging groundwater of relatively constant temperature. For the Sierra sites, comparison of results with those from a small tributary demonstrated that stream temperature patterns were useful in delineating discharges of bank storage following dam releases. Direct coupling may have occurred between streamflow and stream temperature for losing stream reaches, such that reduced streamflows facilitated increased afternoon stream temperatures and increased afternoon stream temperatures induced increased streambed losses, leading to even greater increases in both stream temperature and streamflow losses.

Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Sensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Karam Ali, Mohammad; Said Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Al Dean Khelet, Imad; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor

2005-11-01

A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area-wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950-2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to western mountains and forests

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman

2009-01-01

Observed climate changes in the Western Mountains and Forests bioregion include increased seasonal, annual, minimum, and maximum temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and a shift toward earlier timing of peak runoff. These climatic changes have resulted in widespread mortality in western forests, species range shifts and changes in phenology, productivity, and...

Effect of regional climate warming on the phenology of butterflies in boreal forests in Manitoba, Canada.

PubMed

Westwood, A R; Blair, D

2010-08-01

We examined the effect of regional climate warming on the phenology of butterfly species in boreal forest ecosystems in Manitoba, Canada. For the period 1971-2004, the mean monthly temperatures in January, September, and December increased significantly, as did the mean temperatures for several concurrent monthly periods. The mean annual temperature increased ≈ 0.05°C/yr over the study period. The annual number of frost-free days and degree-day accumulations increased as well. We measured the response of 19 common butterfly species to these temperature changes with the date of first appearance, week of peak abundance, and the length of flight period over the 33-yr period of 1972-2004. Although adult butterfly response was variable for spring and summer months, 13 of 19 species showed a significant (P < 0.05) increase in flight period extending longer into the autumn. Flight period extensions increased by 31.5 ± 13.9 (SD) d over the study period for 13 butterfly species significantly affected by the warming trend. The early autumn and winter months warmed significantly, and butterflies seem to be responding to this warming trend with a change in the length of certain life stages. Two species, Junonia coenia and Euphydryas phaeton, increased their northerly ranges by ≈ 150 and 70 km, respectively. Warmer autumns and winters may be providing opportunities for range extensions of more southerly butterfly species held at bay by past climatic conditions.

Macroecology of Australian Tall Eucalypt Forests: Baseline Data from a Continental-Scale Permanent Plot Network

PubMed Central

Wood, Sam W.; Prior, Lynda D.; Stephens, Helen C.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2015-01-01

Tracking the response of forest ecosystems to climate change demands large (≥1 ha) monitoring plots that are repeatedly measured over long time frames and arranged across macro-ecological gradients. Continental scale networks of permanent forest plots have identified links between climate and carbon fluxes by monitoring trends in tree growth, mortality and recruitment. The relationship between tree growth and climate in Australia has been recently articulated through analysis of data from smaller forest plots, but conclusions were limited by (a) absence of data on recruitment and mortality, (b) exclusion of non-eucalypt species, and (c) lack of knowledge of stand age or disturbance histories. To remedy these gaps we established the Ausplots Forest Monitoring Network: a continental scale network of 48 1 ha permanent plots in highly productive tall eucalypt forests in the mature growth stage. These plots are distributed across cool temperate, Mediterranean, subtropical and tropical climates (mean annual precipitation 850 to 1900 mm per year; mean annual temperature 6 to 21°C). Aboveground carbon stocks (AGC) in these forests are dominated by eucalypts (90% of AGC) whilst non-eucalypts in the understorey dominated species diversity and tree abundance (84% of species; 60% of stems). Aboveground carbon stocks were negatively related to mean annual temperature, with forests at the warm end of the temperature range storing approximately half the amount of carbon as forests at the cool end of the temperature range. This may reflect thermal constraints on tree growth detected through other plot networks and physiological studies. Through common protocols and careful sampling design, the Ausplots Forest Monitoring Network will facilitate the integration of tall eucalypt forests into established global forest monitoring initiatives. In the context of projections of rapidly warming and drying climates in Australia, this plot network will enable detection of links between climate and growth, mortality and carbon dynamics of eucalypt forests. PMID:26368919

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up infrastructure against flood disasters in Upper Tapi Basin, India.

Reassessment of urbanization effect on surface air temperature trends at an urban station of North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, Tao; Ren, Guoyu

2017-11-01

Based on a homogenized data set of monthly mean temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature at Shijiazhuang City Meteorological Station (Shijiazhuang station) and four rural meteorological stations selected applying a more sophisticated methodology, we reanalyzed the urbanization effects on annual, seasonal, and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends for updated time period 1960-2012 at the typical urban station in North China. The results showed that (1) urbanization effects on the long-term trends of annual mean SAT, minimum SAT, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in the last 53 years reached 0.25, 0.47, and - 0.50 °C/decade, respectively, all statistically significant at the 0.001 confidence level, with the contributions from urbanization effects to the overall long-term trends reaching 67.8, 78.6, and 100%, respectively; (2) the urbanization effects on the trends of seasonal mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also large and statistically highly significant. Except for November and December, the urbanization effects on monthly mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also all statistically significant at the 0.05 confidence level; and (3) the annual, seasonal, and monthly mean maximum SAT series at the urban station registered a generally weaker and non-significant urbanization effect. The updated analysis evidenced that our previous work for this same urban station had underestimated the urbanization effect and its contribution to the overall changes in the SAT series. Many similar urban stations were being included in the current national and regional SAT data sets, and the results of this paper further indicated the importance and urgency for paying more attention to the urbanization bias in the monitoring and detection of global and regional SAT change based on the data sets.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

2017-07-01

Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

Inter-Annual Variability in Stream Water Temperature, Microclimate and Heat Exchanges: a Comparison of Forest and Moorland Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G.; Hannah, D. M.; Malcolm, I.; Sadler, J. P.

2012-12-01

Riparian forest is recognised as important for moderating stream temperature variability and has the potential to mitigate thermal extremes in a changing climate. Previous research on the heat exchanges controlling water column temperature has often been short-term or seasonally-constrained, with the few multi-year studies limited to a maximum of two years. This study advances previous work by providing a longer-term perspective which allows assessment of inter-annual variability in stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange dynamics between a semi-natural woodland and a moorland (no trees) reach of the Girnock Burn, a tributary of the Scottish Dee. Automatic weather stations collected 15-minute data over seven consecutive years, which to our knowledge is a unique data set in providing the longest term perspective to date on stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange processes. Results for spring-summer indicate that the presence of a riparian canopy has a consistent effect between years in reducing the magnitude and variability of mean daily water column temperature and daily net energy totals. Differences in the magnitude and variability in net energy fluxes between the study reaches were driven primarily by fluctuations in net radiation and latent heat fluxes in response to between- and within-year variability in growth of the riparian forest canopy at the forest and prevailing weather conditions at both the forest and moorland. This research provides new insights on the inter-annual variability of stream energy exchanges for moorland and forested reaches under a wide range of climatological and hydrological conditions. The findings therefore provide a more robust process basis for modelling the impact of changes in forest practice and climate change on river thermal dynamics.

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Regan, R. Steven; Leaf, Andrew T.; Saad, David A.

2016-08-23

Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

Thermal sensation and climate: a comparison of UTCI and PET thresholds in different climates.

PubMed

Pantavou, Katerina; Lykoudis, Spyridon; Nikolopoulou, Marialena; Tsiros, Ioannis X

2018-06-07

The influence of physiological acclimatization and psychological adaptation on thermal perception is well documented and has revealed the importance of thermal experience and expectation in the evaluation of environmental stimuli. Seasonal patterns of thermal perception have been studied, and calibrated thermal indices' scales have been proposed to obtain meaningful interpretations of thermal sensation indices in different climate regions. The current work attempts to quantify the contribution of climate to the long-term thermal adaptation by examining the relationship between climate normal annual air temperature (1971-2000) and such climate-calibrated thermal indices' assessment scales. The thermal sensation ranges of two thermal indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature Index (PET), were calibrated for three warm temperate climate contexts (Cfa, Cfb, Csa), against the subjective evaluation of the thermal environment indicated by interviewees during field surveys conducted at seven European cities: Athens (GR), Thessaloniki (GR), Milan (IT), Fribourg (CH), Kassel (DE), Cambridge (UK), and Sheffield (UK), under the same research protocol. Then, calibrated scales for other climate contexts were added from the literature, and the relationship between the respective scales' thresholds and climate normal annual air temperature was examined. To maintain the maximum possible comparability, three methods were applied for the calibration, namely linear, ordinal, and probit regression. The results indicated that the calibrated UTCI and PET thresholds increase with the climate normal annual air temperature of the survey city. To investigate further climates, we also included in the analysis results of previous studies presenting only thresholds for neutral thermal sensation. The average increase of the respective thresholds in the case of neutral thermal sensation was about 0.6 °C for each 1 °C increase of the normal annual air temperature for both indices, statistically significant only for PET though.

Controlling factors of evaporation and CO2 flux over an open water lake in southeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Q.; Liu, H.; Liu, Y.; Wang, L.; Xu, L.

2017-12-01

Erhai lake is located in the southeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau. Based on the 4 years measurement over Erhai lake with eddy covariance technique (EC) from 2012 to 2015, the diurnal and seasonal variations of latent and sensible heat and CO2 fluxes, and their controlling factors over different time scales were analyzed. The diurnal average LE ranged from 31 to 171 Wm-2, while Hs ranged from -31 to 21 Wm-2. Bowen ratio was larger during January and May and smaller during June and October. The lake continued storing heat during January and June, and releasing heat since July. The diurnal average CO2 fluxes during nighttime were higher than the daytime, and carbon uptake was almost observed during the midday time of the day for the whole study period. The annual carbon budget fluctuated from 117.5 to 161.7 g C m-2 a-1, while annual total evaporation (ET) from 1120.8 to 1228.5 mm for the four-years period. The Erhai Lake behaved as a net carbon source over the whole period but carbon uptake was observed during the middle time of each year. The difference between water surface and air temperature (DeltaT) and the product of DeltaT and wind speed were the main controlling factors for Hs from halfhourly to monthly scale. There was significant relationship between wind speed, the product of wind speed and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and LE on halfhourly and daily scales. The total cloud amount and net radiation (Rn) had a large effect on monthly variation of LE. Photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) and wind speed was mainly responsible for the variation of halfhourly and daily CO2 fluxes, respectively. The total cloud amount was the most important factors controlling for annual total ET. The annual rainfall, water surface temperature was observed to be negatively related with annual CO2 fluxes.

Determining Greenland Ice Sheet Accumulation Rates from Radar Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jezek, Kenneth C.

2002-01-01

An important component of NASA's Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a mass balance investigation of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The mass balance is calculated by taking the difference between the areally Integrated snow accumulation and the net ice discharge of the ice sheet. Uncertainties in this calculation Include the snow accumulation rate, which has traditionally been determined by interpolating data from ice core samples taken from isolated spots across the ice sheet. The sparse data associated with ice cores juxtaposed against the high spatial and temporal resolution provided by remote sensing , has motivated scientists to investigate relationships between accumulation rate and microwave observations as an option for obtaining spatially contiguous estimates. The objective of this PARCA continuation proposal was to complete an estimate of surface accumulation rate on the Greenland Ice Sheet derived from C-band radar backscatter data compiled in the ERS-1 SAR mosaic of data acquired during, September-November, 1992. An empirical equation, based on elevation and latitude, is used to determine the mean annual temperature. We examine the influence of accumulation rate, and mean annual temperature on C-band radar backscatter using a forward model, which incorporates snow metamorphosis and radar backscatter components. Our model is run over a range of accumulation and temperature conditions. Based on the model results, we generate a look-up table, which uniquely maps the measured radar backscatter, and mean annual temperature to accumulation rate. Our results compare favorably with in situ accumulation rate measurements falling within our study area.

Cabauw experimental results from the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, T.H.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Milly, P.C.D.; Pitman, A.J.; Beljaars, A.C.M.; Polcher, J.; Abramopoulos, F.; Boone, A.; Chang, S.; Chen, F.; Dai, Y.; Desborough, C.E.; Dickinson, R.E.; Dumenil, L.; Ek, M.; Garratt, J.R.; Gedney, N.; Gusev, Y.M.; Kim, J.; Koster, R.; Kowalczyk, E.A.; Laval, K.; Lean, J.; Lettenmaier, D.; Liang, X.; Mahfouf, Jean-Francois; Mengelkamp, H.-T.; Mitchell, Ken; Nasonova, O.N.; Noilhan, J.; Robock, A.; Rosenzweig, C.; Schaake, J.; Schlosser, C.A.; Schulz, J.-P.; Shao, Y.; Shmakin, A.B.; Verseghy, D.L.; Wetzel, P.; Wood, E.F.; Xue, Y.; Yang, Z.-L.; Zeng, Q.

1997-01-01

In the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2a experiment, meteorological data for the year 1987 from Cabauw, the Netherlands, were used as inputs to 23 land-surface flux schemes designed for use in climate and weather models. Schemes were evaluated by comparing their outputs with long-term measurements of surface sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere and the ground, and of upward longwave radiation and total net radiative fluxes, and also comparing them with latent heat fluxes derived from a surface energy balance. Tuning of schemes by use of the observed flux data was not permitted. On an annual basis, the predicted surface radiative temperature exhibits a range of 2 K across schemes, consistent with the range of about 10 W m-2 in predicted surface net radiation. Most modeled values of monthly net radiation differ from the observations by less than the estimated maximum monthly observational error (±10 W m-2). However, modeled radiative surface temperature appears to have a systematic positive bias in most schemes; this might be explained by an error in assumed emissivity and by models' neglect of canopy thermal heterogeneity. Annual means of sensible and latent heat fluxes, into which net radiation is partitioned, have ranges across schemes of 30 W m-2 and 25 W m-2, respectively. Annual totals of evapotranspiration and runoff, into which the precipitation is partitioned, both have ranges of 315 mm. These ranges in annual heat and water fluxes were approximately halved upon exclusion of the three schemes that have no stomatal resistance under non-water-stressed conditions. Many schemes tend to underestimate latent heat flux and overestimate sensible heat flux in summer, with a reverse tendency in winter. For six schemes, root-mean-square deviations of predictions from monthly observations are less than the estimated upper bounds on observation errors (5 W m-2 for sensible heat flux and 10 W m-2 for latent heat flux). Actual runoff at the site is believed to be dominated by vertical drainage to groundwater, but several schemes produced significant amounts of runoff as overland flow or interflow. There is a range across schemes of 184 mm (40% of total pore volume) in the simulated annual mean root-zone soil moisture. Unfortunately, no measurements of soil moisture were available for model evaluation. A theoretical analysis suggested that differences in boundary conditions used in various schemes are not sufficient to explain the large variance in soil moisture. However, many of the extreme values of soil moisture could be explained in terms of the particulars of experimental setup or excessive evapotranspiration.

Cabauw Experimental Results from the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, T. H.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Milly, P. C. D.; Pitman, A. J.; Beljaars, A. C. M.; Polcher, J.; Abramopoulos, F.; Boone, A.; Chang, S.; Chen, F.; Dai, Y.; Desborough, C. E.; Dickinson, R. E.; Dümenil, L.; Ek, M.; Garratt, J. R.; Gedney, N.; Gusev, Y. M.;  Kim, J.;  Koster, R.;  Kowalczyk, E. A.;  Laval, K.;  Lean, J.;  Lettenmaier, D.;  Liang, X.;  Mahfouf, J.-F.;  Mengelkamp, H.-T.;  Mitchell, K.;  Nasonova, O. N.;  Noilhan, J.;  Robock, A.;  Rosenzweig, C.;  Schaake, J.;  Schlosser, C. A.;  Schulz, J.-P.;  Shao, Y.;  Shmakin, A. B.;  Verseghy, D. L.;  Wetzel, P.;  Wood, E. F.;  Xue, Y.;  Yang, Z.-L.;  Zeng, Q.

1997-06-01

In the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2a experiment, meteorological data for the year 1987 from Cabauw, the Netherlands, were used as inputs to 23 land-surface flux schemes designed for use in climate and weather models. Schemes were evaluated by comparing their outputs with long-term measurements of surface sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere and the ground, and of upward longwave radiation and total net radiative fluxes, and also comparing them with latent heat fluxes derived from a surface energy balance. Tuning of schemes by use of the observed flux data was not permitted. On an annual basis, the predicted surface radiative temperature exhibits a range of 2 K across schemes, consistent with the range of about 10 W m2 in predicted surface net radiation. Most modeled values of monthly net radiation differ from the observations by less than the estimated maximum monthly observational error (±10 W m2). However, modeled radiative surface temperature appears to have a systematic positive bias in most schemes; this might be explained by an error in assumed emissivity and by models' neglect of canopy thermal heterogeneity. Annual means of sensible and latent heat fluxes, into which net radiation is partitioned, have ranges across schemes of30 W m2 and 25 W m2, respectively. Annual totals of evapotranspiration and runoff, into which the precipitation is partitioned, both have ranges of 315 mm. These ranges in annual heat and water fluxes were approximately halved upon exclusion of the three schemes that have no stomatal resistance under non-water-stressed conditions. Many schemes tend to underestimate latent heat flux and overestimate sensible heat flux in summer, with a reverse tendency in winter. For six schemes, root-mean-square deviations of predictions from monthly observations are less than the estimated upper bounds on observation errors (5 W m2 for sensible heat flux and 10 W m2 for latent heat flux). Actual runoff at the site is believed to be dominated by vertical drainage to groundwater, but several schemes produced significant amounts of runoff as overland flow or interflow. There is a range across schemes of 184 mm (40% of total pore volume) in the simulated annual mean root-zone soil moisture. Unfortunately, no measurements of soil moisture were available for model evaluation. A theoretical analysis suggested that differences in boundary conditions used in various schemes are not sufficient to explain the large variance in soil moisture. However, many of the extreme values of soil moisture could be explained in terms of the particulars of experimental setup or excessive evapotranspiration.

[Geographical distribution of left ventricular Tei index based on principal component analysis].

PubMed

Xu, Jinhui; Ge, Miao; He, Jinwei; Xue, Ranyin; Yang, Shaofang; Jiang, Jilin

2014-11-01

To provide a scientific standard of left ventricular Tei index for healthy people from various region of China, and to lay a reliable foundation for the evaluation of left ventricular diastolic and systolic function. The correlation and principal component analysis were used to explore the left ventricular Tei index, which based on the data of 3 562 samples from 50 regions of China by means of literature retrieval. Th e nine geographical factors were longitude(X₁), latitude(X₂), altitude(X₃), annual sunshine hours (X₄), the annual average temperature (X₅), annual average relative humidity (X₆), annual precipitation (X₇), annual temperature range (X₈) and annual average wind speed (X₉). ArcGIS soft ware was applied to calculate the spatial distribution regularities of left ventricular Tei index. There is a significant correlation between the healthy people's left ventricular Tei index and geographical factors, and the correlation coefficients were -0.107 (r₁), -0.301 (r₂), -0.029 (r₃), -0.277 (r₄), -0.256(r₅), -0.289(r₆), -0.320(r₇), -0.310 (r₈) and -0.117 (r₉), respectively. A linear equation between the Tei index and the geographical factor was obtained by regression analysis based on the three extracting principal components. The geographical distribution tendency chart for healthy people's left Tei index was fitted out by the ArcGIS spatial interpolation analysis. The geographical distribution for left ventricular Tei index in China follows certain pattern. The reference value in North is higher than that in South, while the value in East is higher than that in West.

Evaluating the Significance of Paleophylogeographic Species Distribution Models in Reconstructing Quaternary Range-Shifts of Nearctic Chelonians

PubMed Central

Flecks, Morris; Ahmadzadeh, Faraham; Dambach, Johannes; Engler, Jan O.; Habel, Jan Christian; Hartmann, Timo; Hörnes, David; Ihlow, Flora; Schidelko, Kathrin; Stiels, Darius; Polly, P. David

2013-01-01

The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5–10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine modern geographic range data, phylogeny, Pleistocene paleoclimatic models, and isotopic records of changes in global mean annual temperature, to produce a temporally continuous model of geographic changes in potential habitat for 59 species of North American turtles over the past 320 Ka (three full glacial-interglacial cycles). These paleophylogeographic models indicate the areas where past climates were compatible with the modern ranges of the species and serve as hypotheses for how their geographic ranges would have changed in response to Quaternary climate cycles. We test these hypotheses against physiological, genetic, taxonomic and fossil evidence, and we then use them to measure the effects of Quaternary climate cycles on species distributions. Patterns of range expansion, contraction, and fragmentation in the models are strongly congruent with (i) phylogeographic differentiation; (ii) morphological variation; (iii) physiological tolerances; and (iv) intraspecific genetic variability. Modern species with significant interspecific differentiation have geographic ranges that strongly fluctuated and repeatedly fragmented throughout the Quaternary. Modern species with low genetic diversity have geographic distributions that were highly variable and at times exceedingly small in the past. Our results reveal the potential for paleophylogeographic models to (i) reconstruct past geographic range modifications, (ii) identify geographic processes that result in genetic bottlenecks; and (iii) predict threats due to anthropogenic climate change in the future. PMID:24130664

Non-stationary Return Levels of CMIP5 Multi-model Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Cheng, L.; Phillips, T. J.; AghaKouchak, A.

2015-05-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are mostmore » subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.« less

A 400-year ice core melt layer record of summertime warming in the Alaska Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winski, D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Campbell, S. W.; Baum, M.; Raudzens Bailey, A.; Birkel, S. D.; Introne, D.; Handley, M.

2017-12-01

Warming in high-elevation regions has socially relevant impacts on glacier mass balance, water resources, and sensitive alpine ecosystems, yet very few high-elevation temperature records exist from the middle or high latitudes. While many terrestrial paleoclimate records provide critical temperature records from low elevations over recent centuries, melt layers preserved in alpine glaciers present an opportunity to develop calibrated, annually-resolved temperature records from high elevations. We present a 400-year temperature record based on the melt-layer stratigraphy in two ice cores collected from Mt. Hunter in the Central Alaska Range. The ice core record shows a 60-fold increase in melt frequency and water equivalent melt thickness between the pre-industrial period (before 1850) and present day. We calibrate the melt record to summer temperatures based on local and regional weather station analyses, and find that the increase in melt production represents a summer warming of at least 2° C, exceeding rates of temperature increase at most low elevation sites in Alaska. The Mt. Hunter melt layer record is significantly (p<0.05) correlated with surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific through a Rossby-wave like pattern that induces high temperatures over Alaska. Our results show that rapid alpine warming has taken place in the Alaska Range for at least a century, and that conditions in the tropical oceans contribute to this warming.

Postnatal hypothermia and cold stress among newborn infants in Nepal monitored by continuous ambulatory recording.

PubMed

Ellis, M; Manandhar, N; Shakya, U; Manandhar, D S; Fawdry, A; Costello, A M

1996-07-01

To describe the pattern of hypothermia and cold stress after delivery among a normal neonatal population in Nepal; to provide practical advice for improving thermal care in a resource limited maternity hospital. The principal government funded maternity hospital in Kathmandu, Nepal, with an annual delivery rate of 15,000 (constituting 40% of all Kathmandu Valley deliveries), severe resource limitations (annual budget Pounds 250,000), and a cold winter climate provided the setting. Thirty five healthy term neonates not requiring special care were enrolled for study within 90 minutes of birth. Continuous ambulatory temperature monitoring, using microthermistor skin probes for forehead and axilla, a flexible rectal probe, and a black ball probe placed next to the infant for ambient temperature, was carried out. All probes were connected to a compact battery powered Squirrel Memory Logger, giving a temperature reading to 0.2 degree C at five minute intervals for 24 hours. Severity and duration of hypothermia, using cutoff values of core temperature less than 36 degrees C, 34 degrees C, and 32 degrees C; and cold stress, using cutoff values of skin-core (forehead-axilla) temperature difference greater than 3 degrees C and 4 degrees C were the main outcome measures. Twenty four hour mean ambient temperatures were generally lower than the WHO recommended level of 25 degrees C (median 22.3 degrees C, range 15.1-27.5 degrees C). Postnatal hypothermia was prolonged, with axillary core temperatures only reaching 36 degrees C after a mean of 6.4 hours (range 0-21.1; SD 4.6). There was persistent and increasing cold stress over the first 24 hours with the core-skin (axillary-forehead) temperature gap exceeding 3 degrees C for more than half of the first 24 hours. Continuous ambulatory recording identifies weak links in the "warm chain" for neonates. The severity and duration of thermal problems was greater than expected even in a hospital setting where some of the WHO recommendations had already been implemented.

Temporal variation of ecosystem scale methane emission from a boreal fen in relation to common model drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinne, J.; Tuittila, E. S.; Peltola, O.; Li, X.; Raivonen, M.; Alekseychik, P.; Haapanala, S.; Pihlatie, M.; Aurela, M.; Mammarella, I.; Vesala, T.

2017-12-01

Models for calculating methane emission from wetland ecosystems typically relate the methane emission to carbon dioxide assimilation. Other parameters that control emission in these models are e.g. peat temperature and water table position. Many of these relations are derived from spatial variation between chamber measurements by space-for-time approach. Continuous longer term ecosystem scale methane emission measurements by eddy covariance method provide us independent data to assess the validity of the relations derived by space-for-time approach.We have analyzed eleven-year methane flux data-set, measured at a boreal fen, together with data on environmental parameters and carbon dioxide exchange to assess the relations to typical model drivers. The data was obtained by the eddy covariance method at Siikaneva mire complex, Southern Finland, during 2005-2015. The methane flux showed seasonal cycles in methane emission, with strongest correlation with peat temperature at 35 cm depth. The temperature relation was exponential throughout the whole peat temperature range of 0-16°C. The methane emission normalized to remove temperature dependence showed a non-monotonous relation on water table and positive correlation with gross primary production (GPP). However, inclusion of these as explaining variables improved algorithm-measurement correlation only slightly, with r2=0.74 for exponential temperature dependent algorithm, r2=0.76 for temperature - water table algorithm, and r2=0.79 for temperature - GPP algorithm. The methane emission lagged behind net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and GPP by two to three weeks. Annual methane emission ranged from 8.3 to 14 gC m-2, and was 20 % of NEE and 2.8 % of GPP. The inter-annual variation of methane emission was of similar magnitude as that of GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco), but much smaller than that of NEE. The interannual variability of June-September average methane emission correlated significantly with that of GPP indicating a close link between these two processes in boreal fen ecosystems.

Short-term seaward fish migration in the Messolonghi Etoliko lagoons (Western Greek coast) in relation to climatic variables and the lunar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katselis, George; Koukou, Katerina; Dimitriou, Evagelos; Koutsikopoulos, Constantin

2007-07-01

In the present study we analysed the daily seaward migratory behaviour of four dominant euryhaline fish species (Mugilidae: Liza saliens, Liza aurata, Mugil cephalus and Sparidae: Sparus aurata) in the Messolonghi Etoliko lagoon system (Western Greek coast) based on the daily landings' time series of barrier traps and assessed the relationship between their migratory behaviour and various climatic variables (air temperature and atmospheric pressure) and the lunar cycle. A 2-year time series of daily fish landings (1993 and 1994), a long time series of daily air temperature and daily temperature range (1991 1998) as well as a 4-year time series of the daily atmospheric pressure (1994 1997) and daily pressure range were used. Harmonic models (HM) consisting of annual and lunar cycle harmonic components explained most (R2 > 0.80) of the mean daily species landings and temperature variations, while a rather low part of the variation (0.18 < R2 < 0.27) was explained for pressure, daily pressure range and daily temperature range. In all the time series sets the amplitude of the annual component was highest. The model values of all species revealed two important migration periods (summer and winter) corresponding to the spawning and refuge migrations. The lunar cycle effect on species' daily migration rates and the short-term fluctuation of daily migration rates were rather low. However, the short-term fluctuation of some species' daily migration rates during winter was greater than during summer. In all species, the main migration was the spawning migration. The model lunar components of the species landings showed a monthly oscillation synchronous to the full moon (S. aurata and M. cephalus) or a semi-monthly oscillation synchronous to the new and full moon (L. aurata and L. saliens). Bispectral analysis of the model values and the model residuals' time series revealed that the species daily migration were correlated (coherencies > 0.6) to the daily fluctuations of the climatic variables at seasonal, mid and short-term scales.

Phenology changes in the mayfly Ephemera danica in response to water temperature variations in the River Dove, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Matthew; Everall, Nicholas; Wilby, Robert

2015-04-01

Water temperature in rivers is critical to aquatic life. Climate and environmental change can elevate river temperatures to levels that stress fish, but impacts on other aquatic organisms are not well understood. In particular, rising temperatures are expected to alter the phenology of aquatic insects at levels substantially below those required to stress fish species. The phenology of the mayfly Ephemera danica, a large burrowing species that is widespread throughout Europe, is known to be sensitive to temperature change. To assess the temporal and spatial variability in mayfly emergence, E. danica were monitored at two reaches in the River Dove, English Peak District over the period 2007 to 2013. Variations in Growing Degree Days (GDDs) were modelled for an upstream site with an annual temperature range in excess of 15 ° C (Beresford Dale) and a downstream site, dominated by near constant discharges of cool groundwater with an annual range less than 8 ° C (Dovedale). The emergence of E. danica was strongly related to GDDs at each site. E. danica usually remains in an aquatic larval stage for two years before emerging in its adult, terrestrial form. However, after particularly warm summers in Beresford Dale, E. danica was recorded to emerge after only one year in its aquatic form. Following the particularly wet/cold year of 2012, E. danica began to revert back to a bi-annual cycle. In Dovedale, an average of 374 fewer GDDs were accumulated in comparison to Beresford Dale. As a result, E. danica maintained a two-year growth cycle throughout the monitoring period despite the phenology changes observed 8 km upstream at Beresford. Changes to insect phenology are significant because populations with a one-year cycle are potentially more vulnerable to adverse weather when the majority of the population is in terrestrial form. Also, altering the growth, development and size of insects affects reproductive success with implications for population dynamics. Data from the present study suggest that habitats near cool groundwater may provide important refugia for populations of insects, potentially delaying permanent shifts in phenology under climate change. Conventional monitoring of both water temperature and invertebrates, as used by regulatory authorities in the UK, did not identify the changes in insect phenology or the association between phenology and water temperature. Therefore, new monitoring strategies are required in order to identify important changes in aquatic populations in response to rising temperatures.

Climatic Factors Driving Invasion of the Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into New Areas of Trentino, Northern Italy

PubMed Central

Castellani, Cristina; Arnoldi, Daniele; Rizzoli, Annapaola

2011-01-01

Background The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively. Conclusions/Significance MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas. PMID:21525991

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation in the NCEP reanalyses: Climatological structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huesmann, Amihan S.; Hitchman, Matthew H.

2001-06-01

Global quasi-biennial variation in the lower stratosphere and tropopause region is studied using 41 years (1958-1998) of reanalyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Horizontal wind, temperature, geopotential height, tropopause temperature and pressure fields are used. A new quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indexing method is presented, which is based on the zonal mean zonal wind shear anomaly at the equator and is compared to the Singapore index. A phase difference composting technique provides ``snapshots'' of the QBO meridional-vertical structure as it descends, and ``composite phases'' provide a look at its time progression. Via binning large amounts of data, the first observation-based estimate of the QBO meridional circulation is obtained. High-latitude QBO variability supports previous studies that invoke planetary wave-mean flow interaction as an explanation. The meridional distribution of the range in QBO zonal wind is compared with the stratospheric annual cycle, with the annual cycle dominating poleward of ~12° latitude but still being significant in the deep tropics. The issues of temporal shear zone asymmetries and phase locking with the annual cycle are critically examined. Subtracting the time mean and annual cycle removes ~2/3 of the asymmetry in wind (and wind shear) zone descent rate. The NCEP data validate previous findings that both the easterly and westerly QBO anomalous wind regimes in the lower stratosphere change sign preferentially during northern summer. It is noteworthy that the NCEP QBO amplitude and the relationships among the reanalysed zonal wind, temperature, and meridional circulation undergo a substantial change around 1978.

Multitemporal MODIS-EVI relationships with precipitation and temperature at the Santa Rita Experimental Range

Treesearch

Jorry Z. U. Kaurivi; Alfredo R. Huete; Kamel Didan

2003-01-01

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides temporal enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data at 250, 500, and 1,000 m spatial resolutions that can be compared to daily, weekly, monthly, and annual weather parameters. A study was conducted at the grassland site (less than 10 percent velvet mesquite [Prosopis juliflora, var. velutina]) and the...

Effects of Potential Future Warming on Runoff in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.

2008-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a long-term planning study of potential water-storage alternatives in the Yakima River Basin, which includes planning for climate change effects on available water resources in the basin. Previously constructed watershed models for the Yakima River Basin were used to simulate changes in unregulated streamflow under two warmer climate scenarios, one representing a 1 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus one scenario) and one representing a 2 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus two scenario). Simulations were done for water years 1981 through 2005 and the results were compared to simulated unregulated runoff for the same period using recorded daily precipitation, and minimum and maximum air temperatures (base conditions). Precipitation was not altered for the two warmer climate change scenarios. Simulated annual runoff for the plus one and plus two scenarios decreased modestly from the base conditions, but the seasonal distribution and the general pattern of runoff proved to be highly sensitive to temperature changes throughout the basin. Seasonally increased runoff was simulated during the late autumn and winter months for both the plus one and plus two scenarios compared to base conditions. Comparisons at six principal regulatory locations in the basin showed that the maximum percentage increases in runoff over the base conditions during December to March varied from 24 to 48 percent for the plus one scenario and 59 to 94 percent for the plus two scenario. During late spring and summer months, significantly decreased runoff was simulated at these sites for both scenarios compared to base conditions. Simulated maximum decreases in runoff occurred during June and July, and the changes ranged from -22 to -51 percent for the plus one scenario and -44 to -76 percent for the plus two scenario. Differences in total annual runoff at these sites ranged from -1.4 to -3.9 percent for the plus one scenario and from -2.5 to -8.2 percent for the plus two scenario. The percent change of the monthly mean runoff for both scenarios from the base conditions at many points in the basin will be used in a water-management model developed by the Bureau of Reclamation to assess various storage alternatives.

Population dynamics of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania: A quarter-century perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grossman, Gary D.; Carline, Robert F.; Wagner, Tyler

2017-01-01

We examined the relationship between density-independent and density-dependent factors on the demography of a dense, relatively unexploited population of brown trout in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania between 1985 and 2011.Individual PCAs of flow and temperature data elucidated groups of years with multiple high flow versus multiple low flow characteristics and high versus low temperature years, although subtler patterns of variation also were observed.Density and biomass displayed similar temporal patterns, ranging from 710 to 1,803 trout/ha and 76–263 kg/ha. We detected a significantly negative linear stock-recruitment relationship (R2 = .39) and there was no evidence that flow or water temperature affected recruitment.Both annual survival and the per-capita rate of increase (r) for the population varied over the study, and density-dependent mechanisms possessed the greatest explanatory power for annual survival data. Temporal trends in population r suggested it displayed a bounded equilibrium with increases observed in 12 years and decreases detected in 13 years.Model selection analysis of per-capita rate of increase data for age 1, and adults (N = eight interpretable models) indicated that both density-dependent (five of eight) and negative density-independent processes (five of eight, i.e. high flows or temperatures), affected r. Recruitment limitation also was identified in three of eight models. Variation in the per-capita rate of increase for the population was most strongly affected by positive density independence in the form of increasing spring–summer temperatures and recruitment limitation.Model selection analyses describing annual variation in both mean length and mass data yielded similar results, although maximum wi values were low ranging from 0.09 to 0.23 (length) and 0.13 to 0.22 (mass). Density-dependence was included in 15 of 15 interpretable models for length and all ten interpretable models for mass. Similarly, positive density-independent effects in the form of increasing autumn–winter flow were present in seven of 15 interpretable models for length and five of ten interpretable models for mass. Negative density independent effects also were observed in the form of high spring–summer flows or temperatures (N = 4), or high autumn–winter temperatures (N = 1).Our analyses of the factors affecting population regulation in an introduced population of brown trout demonstrate that density-dependent forces affected every important demographic characteristic (recruitment, survivorship, the rate of increase, and size) within this population. However, density-independent forces in the form of seasonal variations in flow and temperature also helped explain annual variation in the per-capita rate of increase, and mean length and mass data. Consequently, population regulation within this population is driven by a complex of biotic and environmental factors, although it seems clear that density-dependent factors play a dominant role.

Ground-water temperature of the Wyoming quadrangle in central Delaware : with application to ground-water-source heat pumps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodges, Arthur L.

1982-01-01

Ground-water temperature was measured during a one-year period (1980-81) in 20 wells in the Wyoming Quadrangle in central Delaware. Data from thermistors set at fixed depths in two wells were collected twice each week, and vertical temperature profiles of the remaining 18 wells were made monthly. Ground-water temperature at 8 feet below land surface in well Jc55-1 ranged from 45.0 degrees F in February to 70.1 degrees F in September. Temperature at 35 feet below land surface in the same well reached a minimum of 56.0 degrees F in August, and a maximum of 57.8 degrees F in February. Average annual temperature of ground water at 25 feet below land surface in all wells ranged from 54.6 degrees F to 57.8 degrees F. Variations of average temperature probably reflect the presence or absence of forestation in the recharge areas of the wells. Ground-water-source heat pumps supplied with water from wells 30 or more feet below land surface will operate more efficiently in both heating and cooling modes than those supplied with water from shallower depths. (USGS)

Drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambeth-Beagles, R. S.; Troch, P. A.

2010-12-01

The Colorado River is the main water supply to the southwest region. As demand reaches the limit of supply in the southwest it becomes increasingly important to understand the dynamics of streamflow in the Colorado River and in particular the tributaries to the lower Colorado River. Climate change may pose an additional threat to the already-scarce water supply in the southwest. Due to the narrowing margin for error, water managers are keen on extending their ability to predict streamflow volumes on a mid-range to decadal scale. Before a predictive streamflow model can be developed, an understanding of the physical drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin is needed. This research addresses this need by applying multiple statistical methods to identify trends, patterns and relationships present in streamflow, precipitation and temperature over the past century in four contributing watersheds to the lower Colorado River. The four watersheds selected were the Paria, Little Colorado, Virgin/Muddy, and Bill Williams. Time series data over a common period from 1906-2007 for streamflow, precipitation and temperature were used for the initial analysis. Through statistical analysis the following questions were addressed: 1) are there observable trends and patterns in these variables during the past century and 2) if there are trends or patterns, how are they related to each other? The Mann-Kendall test was used to identify trends in the three variables. Assumptions regarding autocorrelation and persistence in the data were taken into consideration. Kendall’s tau-b test was used to establish association between any found trends in the data. Initial results suggest there are two primary processes occurring. First, statistical analysis reveals significant upward trends in temperatures and downward trends in streamflow. However, there appears to be no trend in precipitation data. These trends in streamflow and temperature speak to increasing evaporation and transpiration processes. Second, annual variability in streamflow is not statistically correlated with annual temperature variability but appears to be highly correlated with annual precipitation variability. This implies that on a year-to-year basis, changes in streamflow volumes are directly affected by precipitation and not temperature. Future development of a predictive streamflow model will need to take into consideration these two processes to obtain accurate results. In order to extend predictive skill to the multi-year scale relationships between precipitation, temperature and persistent climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Nino/Southern Oscillation will need to be examined.

Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, Stewart A.

2010-01-01

Methods were developed to assess the effects of dams on streamflow and water temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries. These methods were used to estimate the flows and temperatures that would occur at 14 dam sites in the absence of upstream dams, and river models were applied to simulate downstream flows and temperatures under a no-dams scenario. The dams selected for this study include 13 dams built and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) as part of the Willamette Project, and 1 dam on the Clackamas River owned and operated by Portland General Electric (PGE). Streamflows in the absence of upstream dams for 2001-02 were estimated for USACE sites on the basis of measured releases, changes in reservoir storage, a correction for evaporative losses, and an accounting of flow effects from upstream dams. For the PGE dam, no-project streamflows were derived from a previous modeling effort that was part of a dam-relicensing process. Without-dam streamflows were characterized by higher peak flows in winter and spring and much lower flows in late summer, as compared to with-dam measured flows. Without-dam water temperatures were estimated from measured temperatures upstream of the reservoirs (the USACE sites) or derived from no-project model results (the PGE site). When using upstream data to estimate without-dam temperatures at dam sites, a typical downstream warming rate based on historical data and downstream river models was applied over the distance from the measurement point to the dam site, but only for conditions when the temperature data indicated that warming might be expected. Regressions with measured temperatures from nearby or similar sites were used to extend the without-dam temperature estimates to the entire 2001-02 time period. Without-dam temperature estimates were characterized by a more natural seasonal pattern, with a maximum in July or August, in contrast to the measured patterns at many of the tall dam sites where the annual maximum temperature typically occurred in September or October. Without-dam temperatures also tended to have more daily variation than with-dam temperatures. Examination of the without-dam temperature estimates indicated that dam sites could be grouped according to the amount of streamflow derived from high-elevation, spring-fed, and snowmelt-driven areas high in the Cascade Mountains (Cougar, Big Cliff/Detroit, River Mill, and Hills Creek Dams: Group A), as opposed to flow primarily derived from lower-elevation rainfall-driven drainages (Group B). Annual maximum temperatures for Group A ranged from 15 to 20 degree(s)C, expressed as the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADM), whereas annual maximum 7dADM temperatures for Group B ranged from 21 to 25 degrees C. Because summertime stream temperature is at least somewhat dependent on the upstream water source, it was important when estimating without-dam temperatures to use correlations to sites with similar upstream characteristics. For that reason, it also is important to maintain long-term, year-round temperature measurement stations at representative sites in each of the Willamette River basin's physiographic regions. Streamflow and temperature estimates downstream of the major dam sites and throughout the Willamette River were generated using existing CE-QUAL-W2 flow and temperature models. These models, originally developed for the Willamette River water-temperature Total Maximum Daily Load process, required only a few modifications to allow them to run under the greatly reduced without-dam flow conditions. Model scenarios both with and without upstream dams were run. Results showed that Willamette River streamflow without upstream dams was reduced to levels much closer to historical pre-dam conditions, with annual minimum streamflows approximately one-half or less of dam-augmented levels. Thermal effects of the dams varied according to the time of year, from cooling in mid-summer to warm

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Vink, Jan K; Horton, Radley M; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A; Francis, Joe D; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

Distribution, abundance, and resting microhabitat of burbot on Julian's Reef, southwestern Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edsall, Thomas A.; Kennedy, Gregory W.; Horns, William H.

1993-01-01

We used a remotely operated submersible vehicle equipped with a color video camera to videotape the lake bed and document the distribution and abundance of burbot Lota lota on a 156-hectare portion of Julian's Reef in southwestern Lake Michigan. The substrates and bathymetry of the study area had been mapped recently by side-scan sonar. Burbot density determined from videotapes covering 6,900 m2 of lake bed at depths of 23-41 m averaged 139 individuals/ hectare (range, 0-571/hectare). This density was substantially higher than the highest burbot density (59-95/hectare) reported in the literature. Burbot were present on the lake bed at depths of 23-36 m, but were most abundant near the crest of the reef at 23-28 m, where the water temperature was 8-13°C, their preferred summer temperature range. Substrates in that temperature range on the reef were bedrock, bedrock ridges, and bedrock and rubble. Burbot were most abundant on the bedrock and rubble. Small fish and macroinvertebrates typically eaten by burbot elsewhere in western Lake Michigan were distributed on the reef according to their summer preferred temperatures and were not seen in abundance where burbot density was highest. We saw no lake trout Salvelinus namaycush on Julian's Reef, although large numbers of juvenile lake trout have been stocked there annually and temperatures on the reef were in the preferred summer temperature range for lake trout.

Distribution, abundance, and resting microhabitat of burbot on Julian's Reef, southwestern Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edsall, Thomas A.; Kennedy, Gregory W.; Horns, William H.

1993-01-01

We used a remotely operated submersible vehicle equipped with a color video camera to videotape the lake bed and document the distribution and abundance of burbot Lota lotaon a 156-hectare portion of Julian's Reef in southwestern Lake Michigan. The substrates and bathymetry of the study area had been mapped recently by side-scan sonar. Burbot density determined from videotapes covering 6,900 m2 of lake bed at depths of 23–41 m averaged 139 individuals/ hectare (range, 0–571/hectare). This density was substantially higher than the highest burbot density (59–95/hectare) reported in the literature. Burbot were present on the lake bed at depths of 23–36 m, but were most abundant near the crest of the reef at 23–28 m, where the water temperature was 8–13°C, their preferred summer temperature range. Substrates in that temperature range on the reef were bedrock, bedrock ridges, and bedrock and rubble. Burbot were most abundant on the bedrock and rubble. Small fish and macroinvertebrates typically eaten by burbot elsewhere in western Lake Michigan were distributed on the reef according to their summer preferred temperatures and were not seen in abundance where burbot density was highest. We saw no lake trout Salvelinus namaycush on Julian's Reef, although large numbers of juvenile lake trout have been stocked there annually and temperatures on the reef were in the preferred summer temperature range for lake trout.

On the brink of change: plant responses to climate on the Colorado Plateau

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Schelz, Charles D.; Moran, Mary; Carolin, Tara W.

2011-01-01

The intensification of aridity due to anthropogenic climate change in the southwestern U.S. is likely to have a large impact on the growth and survival of plant species that may already be vulnerable to water stress. To make accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change, it is essential to determine the long-term dynamics of plant species associated with past climate conditions. Here we show how the plant species and functional types across a wide range of environmental conditions in Colorado Plateau national parks have changed with climate variability over the last twenty years. During this time, regional mean annual temperature increased by 0.18°C per year from 1989–1995, 0.06°C per year from 1995–2003, declined by 0.14°C from 2003–2008, and there was high interannual variability in precipitation. Non-metric multidimensional scaling of plant species at long-term monitoring sites indicated five distinct plant communities. In many of the communities, canopy cover of perennial plants was sensitive to mean annual temperature occurring in the previous year, whereas canopy cover of annual plants responded to cool season precipitation. In the perennial grasslands, there was an overall decline of C3 perennial grasses, no change of C4 perennial grasses, and an increase of shrubs with increasing temperature. In the shrublands, shrubs generally showed no change or slightly increased with increasing temperature. However, certain shrub species declined where soil and physical characteristics of a site limited water availability. In the higher elevation woodlands, Juniperus osteosperma and shrub canopy cover increased with increasing temperature, while Pinus edulis at the highest elevation sites was unresponsive to interannual temperature variability. These results from well-protected national parks highlight the importance of temperature to plant responses in a water-limited region and suggest that projected increases in aridity are likely to promote grass loss and shrub expansion on the Colorado Plateau.

Impact of air temperature variation on the ixodid ticks habitat and tick-borne encephalitis incidence in the Russian Arctic: the case of the Komi Republic.

PubMed

Tokarevich, N; Tronin, A; Gnativ, B; Revich, B; Blinova, O; Evengard, B

2017-01-01

The causes of the recent rise of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence in Europe are discussed. Our objective was to estimate the impact of air temperature change on TBE incidence in the European part of the Russian Arctic. We analysed the TBE incidence in the Komi Republic (RK) over a 42-year period in relation to changes in local annual average air temperature, air temperature during the season of tick activity, tick abundance, TBE-prevalence in ticks, tick-bite incidence rate, and normalised difference vegetation index within the area under study. In 1998-2011 in RK a substantial growth of TBE virus (TBEV) prevalence both in questing and feeding ticks was observed. In 1992-2011 there was 23-fold growth of the tick-bite incidence rate in humans, a northward shift of the reported tick bites, and the season of tick bites increased from 4 to 6 months. In 1998-2011 there was more than 6-fold growth of average annual TBE incidence compared with 1970-1983 and 1984-1997 periods. This resulted both from the northward shift of TBE, and its growth in the south. In our view it was related to local climate change as both the average annual air temperature, and the air temperature during the tick activity season grew substantially. We revealed in RK a strong correlation between the change in the air temperature and that in TBE incidence. The satellite data showed NDVI growth within RK, i.e. alteration of the local ecosystem under the influence of climate change. The rise in TBE incidence in RK is related considerably to the expansion of the range of Ixodes persulcatus. The territory with reported TBE cases also expanded northward. Climate change is an important driver of TBE incidence rate growth.

What drives uncertainty in model diagnoses of carbon dynamics in southern US forests: climate, vegetation, disturbance, or model parameters?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Gu, H.; Williams, C. A.

2017-12-01

Results from terrestrial carbon cycle models have multiple sources of uncertainty, each with its behavior and range. Their relative importance and how they combine has received little attention. This study investigates how various sources of uncertainty propagate, temporally and spatially, in CASA-Disturbance (CASA-D). CASA-D simulates the impact of climatic forcing and disturbance legacies on forest carbon dynamics with the following steps. Firstly, we infer annual growth and mortality rates from measured biomass stocks (FIA) over time and disturbance (e.g., fire, harvest, bark beetle) to represent annual post-disturbance carbon fluxes trajectories across forest types and site productivity settings. Then, annual carbon fluxes are estimated from these trajectories by using time since disturbance which is inferred from biomass (NBCD 2000) and disturbance maps (NAFD, MTBS and ADS). Finally, we apply monthly climatic scalars derived from default CASA to temporally distribute annual carbon fluxes to each month. This study assesses carbon flux uncertainty from two sources: driving data including climatic and forest biomass inputs, and three most sensitive parameters in CASA-D including maximum light use efficiency, temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Q10) and optimum temperature identified by using EFAST (Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing). We quantify model uncertainties from each, and report their relative importance in estimating forest carbon sink/source in southeast United States from 2003 to 2010.

Archaeological Excavations at 32BA415, 32BA428, and 32GG5 on Lake Ashtabula Barnes and Griggs Counties, North Dakota,

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-07-01

present, local surface drainage tends to be poorly developed (Klausing 1968; Scoby , et. al. 1973); this is due in large part to the low permeability of...extremes. During a ten year interval, 1951-1960, re- corded temperatures varied from -38.30 C to 39.40 C ( Scoby , et. al. 1973). Rainfall ranges from...September (Omodt, et. al. 1966). S Heaviest snowfall occurs during December and January with annual totals ranging between 60.7 cm and 72.1 cm ( Scoby , et. al

Winter range arrival and departure of white-tailed deer in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, M.E.

1995-01-01

I analyzed 364 spring and 239 fall migrations by 194 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) from 1975 to 1993 in northeastern Minnesota to determine the proximate cause of arrivals on and departures from winter ranges. The first autumn temperatures below -7?C initiated fall migrations for 14% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0-30) of female deer prior to snowfall in three autumns, but only 2% remained on winter ranges. During 14 autumns, the first temperatures below -7?C coincidental with snowfalls elicited migration in 45% (95% CI = 34-57) of females, and 91 % remained on winter ranges. Arrival dates failed to correlate with independent variables of temperature and snow depth, precluding predictive modeling of arrival on winter ranges. During 13 years, a mean of 80% of females permanently arrived on winter ranges by 31 December. Mean departure dates from winter ranges varied annually (19 March - 4 May) and between winter ranges (14 days) and according to snow depth (15-cm differences). Only 15 - 41 % of deer departed when snow depths were> 30 cm but 80% had done so by the time of lO-cm depths. Mean weekly snow depths in March (18-85 cm) and mean temperature in April (0.3 -8.1 ?c) explained most of the variation in mean departure dates from two winter ranges (Ely, R2 = 0.87, P < 0.0005, n = 19 springs; Isabella, R2 = 0.85, P = 0.0001, n = 12 springs). Mean differences between observed mean departure dates and mean departure dates predicted from equations ranged from 3 days (predictions within the study area) to 8 days (predictions for winter ranges 100-440 km distant).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jensen, Anna M.; Warren, Jeffrey; Hanson, Paul J.

Using seasonal- and cohort-specific photosynthetic temperature response functions, we quantified the physiological significance of maintaining multiple foliar cohorts in mature (~40-45 year old) Picea mariana trees in an ombrotrophic Sphagnum-bog, northern Minnesota, USA. We measured photosynthetic capacity, foliar respiration (Rd), biochemistry and morphology to estimate annual carbon (C) uptake by cohort, season and canopy position. Temperature response of key photosynthetic parameters at 25 C (i.e., light-saturated rate of CO 2 assimilation (Asat), light-saturated rate of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax), light-saturated electron transport rate (Jmax)) were clearly dependent on season and were generally less responsive in younger needles. Temperature optimums range betweenmore » 18.7-23.7, 31.3-38.3 and 28.7-36.7 C for Asat, Vcmax and Jmax respectively. Current-year (Y0) foliage had lower photosynthetic capacities compared to one-year-old (Y1) and two-year-old (Y2) foliage. As Y0 needles matured, values of Asat, Vcmax, Jmax, foliar LMA and nitrogen increased. Values of Vcmax, Jmax and Rd were related to foliar nitrogen but only in the youngest (Y0) cohort. Foliar ontogeny affected photosynthetic capacity more than growth temperature. Morphological and physiological cohort differences were reflected by their annual contribution to modeled C uptake, with a ~36% lower estimated annual C uptake by Y0 needles (LAI 0.52 m 2m -2) compared to Y1&2 cohorts (LAI 0.67 m 2m -2). Collectively, these results illustrate the physiological and ecological significance of characterizing multiple foliar cohorts during bud break and throughout the growth season, and for cumulative C uptake model estimates.« less

Paleoclimatic Reconstructions From Plant Macrofossils For The Last Glacial Maximum, Middle Holocene, And Latest Holocene In The American Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, R. S.; Anderson, K.; Pelltier, R.; Strickland, L. E.; Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2013-12-01

Fossil plant remains preserved in a variety of geologic settings provide direct evidence of where individual species lived in the past, and there are long-established methods for paleoclimatic reconstructions based on comparisons between modern and past geographic ranges of plant species. In principle, these methods use relatively straightforward procedures that frequently result in what appear to be very precise estimates of past temperature and moisture conditions. The reconstructed estimates can be mapped for specific time slices for synoptic-scale reconstructions for data-model comparisons. Although paleobotanical data can provide apparently precise estimates of past climatic conditions, it is difficult to gauge the associated uncertainties. The estimates may be affected by the choice of modern calibration data, reconstruction methods employed, and whether the climatic variable under consideration is an important determinant of the distributions of the species being considered. For time-slice reconstructions, there are also issues involving the adequacy of the spatial coverage of the fossil data and the degree of variability through time. To examine some of these issues, we estimated annual precipitation and summer and winter temperatures for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 × 1000 yr BP), Middle Holocene (MH, 6000 × 500 yr BP), and Latest Holocene (LH, the last 500 yrs), based on the application of four quantitative approaches to paleobotanical assemblages preserved in packrat middens in the American Southwest. Our results indicate that historic variability and difficulties in interpolating climatic values to fossil sites may impose ranges of uncertainties of more than × 1°C for temperature and × 50 mm for annual precipitation. Climatic estimates based on modern midden assemblages generally fall within these ranges, although there may be biases that differ regionally. Samples of similar age and location provide similar climatic estimates, and the four approaches usually result in anomalies of the same sign, but with differing amplitudes. There is considerable variability among the anomalies for samples within each time slice, and different time slices have different geographic coverages of samples. The reconstructed temperature anomalies are similar between the MH and LH time slices, and generally fall within the uncertainties related to the modern climatic data. LGM anomalies were significantly colder, and for many samples exceeded -5°C in both winter and summer. There are what appear to be significant MH annual precipitation anomalies to the south (dry after 6.2 ka)and to the northwest (wet before 6.2 ka), but it may be misleading to compare these, given the differences in age. Positive annual precipitation anomalies for the LGM are more than 100 mm in the northwest, and smaller in the northeast and south.

Characterizing the urban temperature trend using seasonal unit root analysis: Hong Kong from 1970 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To, Wai-Ming; Yu, Tat-Wai

2016-12-01

This paper explores urban temperature in Hong Kong using long-term time series. In particular, the characterization of the urban temperature trend was investigated using the seasonal unit root analysis of monthly mean air temperature data over the period January 1970 to December 2013. The seasonal unit root test makes it possible to determine the stochastic trend of monthly temperatures using an autoregressive model. The test results showed that mean air temperature has increased by 0.169°C (10 yr)-1 over the past four decades. The model of monthly temperature obtained from the seasonal unit root analysis was able to explain 95.9% of the variance in the measured monthly data — much higher than the variance explained by the ordinary least-squares model using annual mean air temperature data and other studies alike. The model accurately predicted monthly mean air temperatures between January 2014 and December 2015 with a root-mean-square percentage error of 4.2%. The correlation between the predicted and the measured monthly mean air temperatures was 0.989. By analyzing the monthly air temperatures recorded at an urban site and a rural site, it was found that the urban heat island effect led to the urban site being on average 0.865°C warmer than the rural site over the past two decades. Besides, the results of correlation analysis showed that the increase in annual mean air temperature was significantly associated with the increase in population, gross domestic product, urban land use, and energy use, with the R2 values ranging from 0.37 to 0.43.

Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

PubMed

Deng, Cai; Zhang, Wanchang

2018-05-30

As the backland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the river source region is highly sensitive to changes in global climate. Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. A geographically weighted regression model was applied to estimate synchronic air temperature from 2001 to 2015 using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometry (MODIS) data. The results were R 2  = 0.913 and RMSE = 2.47 °C, which confirmed the feasibility of the estimation. The spatial distribution and variation characteristics of the average annual and seasonal air temperature were analyzed. The findings are as follows: (1) the distribution of average annual air temperature has significant terrain characteristics. The reduction in average annual air temperature along the elevation of the region is 0.19 °C/km, whereas the reduction in the average annual air temperature along the latitude is 0.04 °C/degree. (2) The average annual air temperature increase in the region is 0.37 °C/decade. The average air temperature increase could be arranged in the following decreasing order: Yangtze River Basin > Mekong River Basin > Nujiang River Basin > Yarlung Zangbo River Basin > Yellow River Basin. The fastest, namely, Yangtze River Basin, is 0.47 °C/decade. (3) The average air temperature rise in spring, summer, and winter generally increases with higher altitude. The average annual air temperature in different types of lands following a decreasing order is as follows: wetland > construction land > bare land glacier > shrub grassland > arable land > forest land > water body and that of the fastest one, wetland, is 0.13 °C/year.

High-temperature thermal treatment of the uterus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, Thomas P.; Xiao, Jia Hua; Chung, Juh Yun

2003-06-01

More than 200,000 hysterectomies are performed annually in the US due to abnormal uterine bleeding from excessive menstrual flow. A minimally invasive procedure has been developed using thermal treatment combined with pressure to the endometrial lining of the uterus. Results from a 3-D finite element model will be shown, as well as experimental data. Good correlation was seen between simulations and experiments. The study found similar results then temperatures were increased and times for treatment were shortened.More than 200,000 hysterectomies are performed annually in the US due to abnormal uterine bleeding from excessive menstrual flow. A minimally invasive procedure has been developed using a balloon-based thermal treatment combined with pressure to the endometrial lining of the uterus. A 3D finite element model was set up to simulate the balloon ablation device in the human uterus as used in over 150,000 patients to date. Several additional simulations were made at higher temperatures to seek alternative combinations with higher temperature and shorter time intervals for the same depth of penetration, or deeper penetration at longer times and elevated temperatures. A temperature range of 87 to 150°C was explored. The Bioheat Equation was used in the simulations to predict temperature distributions in tissue. The Damage Integral was also used to characterize the location at depth of irreversible damage in the uterus. Treatment safety issues were also analyzed as the simulations showed the depth of penetration into the myometrium, towards the serosa.

Interannual Variability in Global Soil Respiration on a 0.5 Degree Grid Cell Basis (1980-1994)

DOE Data Explorer

Raich, James W. [Iowa State University, Ames, IA (USA); Potter, Christopher S. [NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Moffett Field, Mountain View, CA (United States); Bhagawat, Dwipen [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Olson, L. M. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN

2003-08-01

The Principal Investigators used a climate-driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil-CO2 emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil-to-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The mean annual global soil-CO2 flux over this 15-y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3-81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil-CO2 emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil-CO2 emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests contributed more soil-derived CO2 to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type (~30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil-CO2 emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil-CO2 production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO2 concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands, and deserts), interannual variability in soil-CO2 emmissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil-CO2 fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 PgCY-1 per degree Celsius. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil-CO2 emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO2 emissions from soils.

Environmental determinants of the spatial distribution of Alaria alata in Hungary.

PubMed

Széll, Z; Tolnai, Z; Sréter, T

2013-11-15

Alaria alata is a potential zoonotic parasite, which is widely distributed in Eurasia. To assess the risk of human infection, it is important to know the spatial distribution pattern of the parasite and factors influencing this pattern. To investigate these relationships, 1612 red fox (Vulpes vulpes) carcasses were randomly collected from the whole Hungarian territory, and the intestines were examined by sedimentation and counting technique. The spatial distribution of the parasite was highly clumped. The topographic positions where the foxes had been shot and the intensity of infections were recorded in geographic information system database. Digitized home ranges of infected and uninfected foxes were analysed on the background of geographic vector data of altitude, land cover types, permanent waters, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation and soil permeability. Multiple regression analysis was performed with environmental parameter values and A. alata scores. Based on the statistical analysis, lack of permanent waters, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation and soil permeability were the major determinants of the spatial distribution of A. alata. It can be explained by the use of biotopes by the intermediate hosts. The lack of permanent waters results in the use of temporary waters by the second intermediate hosts, frogs. The higher temperature, the lower precipitation and the higher soil permeability lead to earlier desiccation of temporary waters, and tadpoles and frogs infected with mesocercariae can be more easily predated by the final hosts (e.g., red foxes). Moreover, temporary waters are more easily contaminated with the faeces of the final hosts containing eggs than permanent waters. Therefore, high infection rate with A. alata can be expected mainly in lowland areas, where the hydrogeography of permanent waters is less complex, the precipitation is lower, the mean temperature and the soil permeability are higher than in highland areas. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of 20-min and Annual Radiation Budget Components and Cloudiness in a Mountainous Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, E.

2007-05-01

Logan, Utah (USA) is among cities located in the mountainous valley in the western portion of Rocky Mountains in North America. It is the county seat of Cache Valley, a metropolitan area with a population of about 100,000. The valley had the polluted air in the USA during January 2004. To evaluate the daily and annual radiation budget and cloudiness in this mountainous valley, we set up a radiation station in the middle of the valley to measure the 20- min radiation budget components namely: incoming (Rso) and outgoing (Rso) solar or shortwave radiation, using to CM21 Kipp and Zonen (one inverted) and incoming (Rli) (or atmospheric) and outgoing (Rlo) or terrestrial) longwave radiation using two CG1 Kipp and Zonen Pyrgeometers (one inverted) during the year of 2003. All pyranometers and Pyrgeometers were ventilated with four CV2 Kipp and Zonen ventilation systems throughout the year to prevent deposition of dew, frost and snow, which otherwise would disturb the measurements. We also measured the 2-m air temperature and relative humidity along with surface temperature. All measurements were taken every 2 s, averaged to 20 min, continuously throughout the year 2000. A Met One heated rain gauge measured precipitation. Comparison of the annual radiation budget components indicates that about 25% of the annual Rsi (5848.6 MJ/ (squared m-y)) was reflected back to sky as Rso. Rli and Rlo amounted to 9968.7 and 13303.5 MJ/ (squared m-y)), respectively. This yielded about 1364.9 MJ/ (squared m- y)) available energy (Rn). Having the 2-m air temperature and moisture data and comparison between the theoretical and the measured longwave radiation, we evaluated the 20-m cloudy conditions throughout the year of 2003. The average cloud base height was 587 m (ranged from zero for foggy conditions to about 3000 m). Annual cloudiness contributed about 139.1 MJ/ (squared m-y)) more energy in this valley.

Plasticity in Dendroclimatic Response across the Distribution Range of Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis)

PubMed Central

de Luis, Martin; Čufar, Katarina; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Novak, Klemen; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K.; Raventós, José; Saz, Miguel Angel; Smith, Kevin T.

2013-01-01

We investigated the variability of the climate-growth relationship of Aleppo pine across its distribution range in the Mediterranean Basin. We constructed a network of tree-ring index chronologies from 63 sites across the region. Correlation function analysis identified the relationships of tree-ring index to climate factors for each site. We also estimated the dominant climatic gradients of the region using principal component analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperature and total precipitation from 1,068 climatic gridpoints. Variation in ring width index was primarily related to precipitation and secondarily to temperature. However, we found that the dendroclimatic relationship depended on the position of the site along the climatic gradient. In the southern part of the distribution range, where temperature was generally higher and precipitation lower than the regional average, reduced growth was also associated with warm and dry conditions. In the northern part, where the average temperature was lower and the precipitation more abundant than the regional average, reduced growth was associated with cool conditions. Thus, our study highlights the substantial plasticity of Aleppo pine in response to different climatic conditions. These results do not resolve the source of response variability as being due to either genetic variation in provenance, to phenotypic plasticity, or a combination of factors. However, as current growth responses to inter-annual climate variability vary spatially across existing climate gradients, future climate-growth relationships will also likely be determined by differential adaptation and/or acclimation responses to spatial climatic variation. The contribution of local adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity across populations to the persistence of species under global warming could be decisive for prediction of climate change impacts across populations. In this sense, a more complex forest dynamics modeling approach that includes the contribution of genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity can improve the reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships. PMID:24391786

Evidence of tree species' range shifts in a complex landscape.

PubMed

Monleon, Vicente J; Lintz, Heather E

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to change the distribution of species. For long-lived, sessile species such as trees, tracking the warming climate depends on seedling colonization of newly favorable areas. We compare the distribution of seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and Washington, United States of America, a large, environmentally diverse region. Across 46 species, the mean annual temperature of the range of seedlings was 0.120°C colder than that of the range of trees (95% confidence interval from 0.096 to 0.144°C). The extremes of the seedling distributions also shifted towards colder temperature than those of mature trees, but the change was less pronounced. Although the mean elevation and mean latitude of the range of seedlings was higher than and north of those of the range of mature trees, elevational and latitudinal shifts run in opposite directions for the majority of the species, reflecting the lack of a direct biological relationship between species' distributions and those variables. The broad scale, environmental diversity and variety of disturbance regimes and land uses of the study area, the large number and exhaustive sampling of tree species, and the direct causal relationship between the temperature response and a warming climate, provide strong evidence to attribute the observed shifts to climate change.

Local air temperature tolerance: a sensible basis for estimating climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kärner, Olavi; Post, Piia

2016-11-01

The customary representation of climate using sample moments is generally biased due to the noticeably nonstationary behaviour of many climate series. In this study, we introduce a moment-free climate representation based on a statistical model fitted to a long-term daily air temperature anomaly series. This model allows us to separate the climate and weather scale variability in the series. As a result, the climate scale can be characterized using the mean annual cycle of series and local air temperature tolerance, where the latter is computed using the fitted model. The representation of weather scale variability is specified using the frequency and the range of outliers based on the tolerance. The scheme is illustrated using five long-term air temperature records observed by different European meteorological stations.

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

1935-2004 Water Vapor Trends at the Summit of Mount Washington, NH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidel, T. M.; Grant, A. N.; Pszenny, A. A.

2005-12-01

As part of an ongoing effort to digitize and analyze the unique historical climate record from the summit of Mount Washington, water vapor mixing ratios calculated from synoptic (six-hourly) sling psychrometer and related data will be presented. The Mount Washington Observatory, located at 44°16'N, 71°18'W, 1914 m ASL, has been recording meteorological conditions since 1932. A continuous record of hourly and synoptic data exists from 1935 to the present. Previous work with hourly temperature data has shown an increase in annual temperature of 0.3°C over this 69-year interval, with larger increases during spring and winter, and a decrease in diurnal temperature range (A. Grant et al., J. Climate, in press). Preliminary examination of the synoptic psychrometric data suggests a decrease in annual dew point of approximately 0.4°C, with larger decreases in fall and winter than during the other seasons. Decreasing dew points are expected under two conditions: drier air or constant water vapor with increasing temperature. Other dew point climatologies of the continental United States for the second half of the 20th century have shown mixed results, with increased dew points evident at some stations, decreased dew points at others, and no clear regional patterns.

Cyprinodon diabolis: prospects for an endangered desert pupfish in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hausner, M. B.; Wilson, K. P.; Gaines, D. B.; Suarez, F. I.; Tyler, S. W.

2013-12-01

A small groundwater-fed ecosystem in the Mojave Desert of the southwestern United States, Devils Hole is home to the only extant population of the Devils Hole pupfish (Cyprinodon diabolis). The critically endangered population of these fish entered a heretofore unexplained decline in the mid-1990s. Successful reproduction in Cyprinodon spp. is influenced by both water temperature and dissolved oxygen content, and the annual recruitment of C. diabolis depends on the coincidence of annual temperature cycles and seasonal changes in the ecosystem's food web. Recent climate change in the Mojave Desert is already sufficient to increase water temperatures more than 0.1 °C. Understanding the future impacts of climate on the ecosystem is critical to management and conservation efforts. In this study, we employ computational fluid dynamics to consider the ecosystem's physical response to projected climate scenarios. Using an energy-based model driven by a range of climate (air temperatures) and management (water levels) scenarios, we simulate water temperatures on the critical shallow shelf that comprises the optimum spawning habitat in the ecosystem. Results show that increasing air temperatures shift the timing of the thermal conditions conducive to spawning and the ecosystem's food web, and that the brief period each spring during which both aspects are suitable for recruitment will likely become shorter in the future. Simulations also show that the impact of air temperature on water temperature is much less for scenarios in which the water level is higher, pointing toward one potential strategy for mitigating the ecological effects of the changing climate.

Spatio-temporal Trends of Climate Variability in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad

Climatic trends in spatial and temporal variability of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK), the Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) tests were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend and the trend shift, respectively. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve techniques were used to address the data independency and homogeneity. The pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of auto correlation of the data series. The difference between minimum and maximum temperatures, and so the diurnal temperature range (DTR), at some stations was found to be decreasing on both an annual and a seasonal basis, with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. For precipitation, a statewide increasing trend in fall (highest in November) and decreasing trend in winter (highest in February) were detected. No pronounced increasing/decreasing trends were detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Trend analysis on a spatial scale (for three physiographic regions: mountain, piedmont and coastal) revealed mixed results. Coastal zone exhibited increasing mean temperature (warming) trend as compared to other locations whereas mountain zone showed decreasing trend (cooling). Three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover, and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlative analysis purposes with the temperature (specifically with DTR) and precipitation trends. It appears that the moisture components are associated with DTR more than the circulation modes in North Carolina.

Calculating net primary productivity of forest ecosystem with G4M model: case study on South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, S.; Forsell, N.; Kindermann, G.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is considered as an important indicator for forest ecosystem since the role of forest is highlighted as a stepping stone for mitigating climate change. Especially rapidly urbanizing countries which have high carbon dioxide emission have large interest in calculating forest NPP under climate change. Also maximizing carbon sequestration in forest sector has became a global goal to minimize the impacts of climate change. Therefore, the objective of this research is estimating carbon stock change under the different climate change scenarios by using G4M (Global Forestry Model) model in South Korea. We analyzed four climate change scenarios in different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). In this study we used higher resolution data (1kmx1km) to produce precise estimation on NPP from regionalized four climate change scenarios in G4M model. Finally, we set up other environmental variables for G4M such as water holding capacity, soil type and elevation. As a result of this study, temperature showed significant trend during 2011 to 2100. Average annual temperature increased more than 5℃ in RCP 8.5 scenario while 1℃ increased in RCP 2.6 scenario. Each standard deviation of the annual average temperature showed similar trend. Average annual precipitation showed similarity within four scenarios. However the standard deviation of average annual precipitation is higher in RCP8.5 scenario which indicates the ranges of precipitation is wider in RCP8.5 scenario. These results present that climate indicators such as temperature and precipitation have uncertainties in climate change scenarios. NPP has changed from 5-13tC/ha/year in RCP2.6 scenario to 9-21 tC/ha/year in RCP8.5 scenario in 2100. In addition the spatial distribution of NPP presented different trend among the scenarios. In conclusion we calculated differences in temperature and precipitation and NPP change in different climate change scenarios. This study can be applied for maximizing carbon seqestration of vegetation.

Abiotic predictors and annual seasonal dynamics of Ixodes ricinus, the major disease vector of Central Europe.

PubMed

Daniel, Milan; Malý, Marek; Danielová, Vlasta; Kříž, Bohumír; Nuttall, Patricia

2015-09-18

Abiotic conditions provide cues that drive tick questing activity. Defining these cues is critical in predicting biting risk, and in forecasting climate change impacts on tick populations. This is particularly important for Ixodes ricinus nymphs, the vector of numerous pathogens affecting humans. A 6-year study of the questing activity of I. ricinus was conducted in Central Bohemia, Czech Republic, from 2001 to 2006. Tick numbers were determined by weekly flagging the vegetation in a defined 600 m(2) field site. After capture, ticks were released back to where they were found. Concurrent temperature data and relative humidity were collected in the microhabitat and at a nearby meteorological station. Data were analysed by regression methods. During 208 monitoring visits, a total of 21,623 ticks were recorded. Larvae, nymphs, and adults showed typical bimodal questing activity curves with major spring peaks and minor late summer or autumn peaks (mid-summer for males). Questing activity of nymphs and adults began with ~12 h of daylight and ceased at ~9 h daylight, at limiting temperatures close to freezing (in early spring and late autumn); questing occurred during ~70 % calendar year without cessation in summer. The co-occurrence of larvae and nymphs varied annually, ranging from 31 to 80 % of monitoring visits, and depended on the questing activity of larvae. Near-ground temperature, day length, and relative air humidity were all significant predictors of nymphal activity. For 70 % of records, near-ground temperatures measured in the microhabitat were 4-5 °C lower than those recorded by the nearby meteorological observatory, although they were strongly dependent. Inter-annual differences in seasonal numbers of nymphs reflected extreme weather events. Weather predictions (particularly for temperature) combined with daylight length, are good predictors of the initiation and cessation of I. ricinus nymph questing activity, and hence of the risk period to humans, in Central Europe. Co-occurrence data for larvae and nymphs support the notion of intrastadial rather than interstadial co-feeding pathogen transmission. Annual questing tick numbers recover quickly from the impact of extreme weather events.

Constraining estimates of global soil respiration by quantifying sources of variability.

PubMed

Jian, Jinshi; Steele, Meredith K; Thomas, R Quinn; Day, Susan D; Hodges, Steven C

2018-05-10

Quantifying global soil respiration (R SG ) and its response to temperature change are critical for predicting the turnover of terrestrial carbon stocks and their feedbacks to climate change. Currently, estimates of R SG range from 68 to 98 Pg C year -1 , causing considerable uncertainty in the global carbon budget. We argue the source of this variability lies in the upscaling assumptions regarding the model format, data timescales, and precipitation component. To quantify the variability and constrain R SG , we developed R SG models using Random Forest and exponential models, and used different timescales (daily, monthly, and annual) of soil respiration (R S ) and climate data to predict R SG . From the resulting R SG estimates (range = 66.62-100.72 Pg), we calculated variability associated with each assumption. Among model formats, using monthly R S data rather than annual data decreased R SG by 7.43-9.46 Pg; however, R SG calculated from daily R S data was only 1.83 Pg lower than the R SG from monthly data. Using mean annual precipitation and temperature data instead of monthly data caused +4.84 and -4.36 Pg C differences, respectively. If the timescale of R S data is constant, R SG estimated by the first-order exponential (93.2 Pg) was greater than the Random Forest (78.76 Pg) or second-order exponential (76.18 Pg) estimates. These results highlight the importance of variation at subannual timescales for upscaling to R SG . The results indicated R SG is lower than in recent papers and the current benchmark for land models (98 Pg C year -1 ), and thus may change the predicted rates of terrestrial carbon turnover and the carbon to climate feedback as global temperatures rise. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions

DOE PAGES

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

2017-06-28

Cumulative CO 2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO 2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models frommore » the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Here, our results suggest that cumulative CO 2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

Listening In on the Past: What Can Otolith δ18O Values Really Tell Us about the Environmental History of Fishes?

PubMed Central

Darnaude, Audrey M.; Sturrock, Anna; Trueman, Clive N.; Mouillot, David; EIMF; Campana, Steven E.; Hunter, Ewan

2014-01-01

Oxygen isotope ratios from fish otoliths are used to discriminate marine stocks and reconstruct past climate, assuming that variations in otolith δ18O values closely reflect differences in temperature history of fish when accounting for salinity induced variability in water δ18O. To investigate this, we exploited the environmental and migratory data gathered from a decade using archival tags to study the behaviour of adult plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in the North Sea. Based on the tag-derived monthly distributions of the fish and corresponding temperature and salinity estimates modelled across three consecutive years, we first predicted annual otolith δ18O values for three geographically discrete offshore sub-stocks, using three alternative plausible scenarios for otolith growth. Comparison of predicted vs. measured annual δ18O values demonstrated >96% correct prediction of sub-stock membership, irrespective of the otolith growth scenario. Pronounced inter-stock differences in δ18O values, notably in summer, provide a robust marker for reconstructing broad-scale plaice distribution in the North Sea. However, although largely congruent, measured and predicted annual δ18O values of did not fully match. Small, but consistent, offsets were also observed between individual high-resolution otolith δ18O values measured during tag recording time and corresponding δ18O predictions using concomitant tag-recorded temperatures and location-specific salinity estimates. The nature of the shifts differed among sub-stocks, suggesting specific vital effects linked to variation in physiological response to temperature. Therefore, although otolith δ18O in free-ranging fish largely reflects environmental temperature and salinity, we counsel prudence when interpreting otolith δ18O data for stock discrimination or temperature reconstruction until the mechanisms underpinning otolith δ18O signature acquisition, and associated variation, are clarified. PMID:25279667

Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

2017-06-01

Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

Cumulative CO 2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO 2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models frommore » the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Here, our results suggest that cumulative CO 2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

Relationships between airborne fungal spore concentration of Cladosporium and the summer climate at two sites in Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollins, P. D.; Kettlewell, P. S.; Atkinson, M. D.; Stephenson, D. B.; Corden, J. M.; Millington, W. M.; Mullins, J.

Cladosporium conidia have been shown to be important aeroallergens in many regions throughout the world, but annual spore concentrations vary considerably between years. Understanding these annual fluctuations may be of value in the clinical management of allergies. This study investigates the number of days in summer when spore concentration exceeds the allergenic threshold in relation to regional temperature and precipitation at two sites in England and Wales over 27 years. Results indicate that number of days in summer when the Cladosporium spores are above the allergenic concentration is positively correlated with regional temperature and negatively correlated with precipitation for both sites over the study period. Further analysis used a winter North Atlantic Oscillation index to explore the potential for long-range forecasting of the aeroallergen. For both spore measurement sites, a positive correlation exists between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the number of days in summer above the allergenic threshold for Cladosporium spore concentration.

Mobile Launch Platform (MLP) Environmental Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-28

Sometimes these winds are interrupted by cool seasonal storms with southerly winds; dry offshore storms with southeasterly winds, called Santa Ana...winds; coastal eddies during the warm season with southeasterly winds over the inner waters; and alternating land and sea breezes that occur closer to...mean temperature of 14 oC (58 oF). Total annual precipitation averages 21.3 centimeters (8.4 inches). The dry season ranges from May to September and

Environmental controls on leaf wax δD ratios in surface peats across the monsoonal region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Xue, J.; Wang, X.; Meyers, P. A.

2015-09-01

Leaf wax molecular and isotopic ratios are generally considered robust isotopic paleohydrologic proxies. Here we evaluate the proxy value of the molecular distributions and hydrogen isotopic compositions of long chain n-alkanes (δDalk) in surface peats collected from peatlands across a range of annual air temperatures from 1 to 15 °C and a range of annual mean precipitation from 720 to 2070 mm in the monsoonal region of China. The alkane ratios (ACL and CPI) and δDalk values show relatively large variations in multiple samples from a single site, highlighting the complexity of these ratios at a small spatial scale. In the montane Zoigê peatland, the apparent fractionation between precipitation and δDalk is more positive than in the other six sites, which is possibly an effect of the higher conductivity of the water in this high elevation site (3500 m a.s.l.). At a larger spatial scale, the site-averaged CPI ratios and the δDalk values of n-C29 and n-C31 alkanes show significant correlation with the air temperature and precipitation. These results support the application of the CPI ratio and the δDalk ratios of n-C29 and n-C31 alkanes as sensitive paleohydrologic proxies on millennial and larger timescales.

Glacier-volcano interactions in the north crater of Mt. Wrangell, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Abston, Carl; Motyka, Roman J.; McNutt, Stephen; Luthi, Martin; Truffer, Martin

2007-01-01

Glaciological and related observations from 1961 to 2005 at the summit of Mt Wrangell (62.008 N, 144.028W; 4317 m a.s.l.), a massive glacier-covered shield volcano in south-central Alaska, show marked changes that appear to have been initiated by the Great Alaska Earthquake (MW = 9.2) of 27 March 1964. The 4 x 6 km diameter, ice-filled Summit Caldera with several post-caldera craters on its rim, comprises the summit region where annual snow accumulation is 1–2 m of water equivalent and the mean annual temperature, measured 10 m below the snow surface, is –20°C. Precision surveying, aerial photogrammetry and measurements of temperature and snow accumulation were used to measure the loss of glacier ice equivalent to about 0.03 km3 of water from the North Crater in a decade. Glacier calorimetry was used to calculate the associated heat flux, which varied within the range 20–140W m–2; total heat flow was in the range 20–100 MW. Seismicity data from the crater’s rim show two distinct responses to large earthquakes at time scales from minutes to months. Chemistry of water and gas from fumaroles indicates a shallow magma heat source and seismicity data are consistent with this interpretation.

Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie; Sagero, Phillip Obaigwa

2017-08-01

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951-2012 and the recent (1981-2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen's slope estimator. December-February (DJF) season records high temperature while June-August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

Chronic warm exposure impairs growth performance and reduces thermal safety margins in the common triplefin fish (Forsterygion lapillum).

PubMed

McArley, Tristan J; Hickey, Anthony J R; Herbert, Neill A

2017-10-01

Intertidal fish species face gradual chronic changes in temperature and greater extremes of acute thermal exposure through climate-induced warming. As sea temperatures rise, it has been proposed that whole-animal performance will be impaired through oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance [OCLTT; reduced aerobic metabolic scope (MS)] and, on acute exposure to high temperatures, thermal safety margins may be reduced because of constrained acclimation capacity of upper thermal limits. Using the New Zealand triplefin fish ( Forsterygion lapillum ), this study addressed how performance in terms of growth and metabolism (MS) and upper thermal tolerance limits would be affected by chronic exposure to elevated temperature. Growth was measured in fish acclimated (12 weeks) to present and predicted future temperatures and metabolic rates were then determined in fish at acclimation temperatures and with acute thermal ramping. In agreement with the OCLTT hypothesis, chronic exposure to elevated temperature significantly reduced growth performance and MS. However, despite the prospect of impaired growth performance under warmer future summertime conditions, an annual growth model revealed that elevated temperatures may only shift the timing of high growth potential and not the overall annual growth rate. While the upper thermal tolerance (i.e. critical thermal maxima) increased with exposure to warmer temperatures and was associated with depressed metabolic rates during acute thermal ramping, upper thermal tolerance did not differ between present and predicted future summertime temperatures. This suggests that warming may progressively decrease thermal safety margins for hardy generalist species and could limit the available habitat range of intertidal populations. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Behavioral responses to annual temperature variation alter the dominant energy pathway, growth, and condition of a cold-water predator

PubMed Central

Blanchfield, Paul J.; Rennie, Michael D.

2017-01-01

There is a pressing need to understand how ecosystems will respond to climate change. To date, no long-term empirical studies have confirmed that fish populations exhibit adaptive foraging behavior in response to temperature variation and the potential implications this has on fitness. Here, we use an unparalleled 11-y acoustic telemetry, stable isotope, and mark–recapture dataset to test if a population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), a cold-water stenotherm, adjusted its use of habitat and energy sources in response to annual variations in lake temperatures during the open-water season and how these changes translated to the growth and condition of individual fish. We found that climate influenced access to littoral regions in spring (data from telemetry), which in turn influenced energy acquisition (data from isotopes), and growth (mark–recapture data). In more stressful years, those with shorter springs and longer summers, lake trout had reduced access to littoral habitat and assimilated less littoral energy, resulting in reduced growth and condition. Annual variation in prey abundance influenced lake trout foraging tactics (i.e., the balance of the number and duration of forays) but not the overall time spent in littoral regions. Lake trout greatly reduced their use of littoral habitat and occupied deep pelagic waters during the summer. Together, our results provide clear evidence that climate-mediated behavior can influence the dominant energy pathways of top predators, with implications ranging from individual fitness to food web stability. PMID:28808011

Ecosystem CO2 Exchange Across Semiarid Southwestern North America: A Synthesis of Multi-Year Flux Site Observations and its Comparison with Estimates from Terrestrial Biome Models and Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Goulden, M.; Litvak, M. E.; Kolb, T.; Yepez, E. A.; Garatuza, J.; Oechel, W. C.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Ponce-Campos, G. E.; Bowling, D. R.; Meyers, T. P.; Maurer, G.

2016-12-01

Global carbon cycle studies reveal that semiarid ecosystems dominate the increasing trend and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, the regional terrestrial biome models (TBM) and remote sensing products (RSP) used in large-scale analyses are poorly constrained by ecosystem flux measurements in semiarid regions, which are under-represented in global flux datasets. Here we present eddy covariance measurements from 25 diverse ecosystems in semiarid southwestern North America with ranges in annual precipitation of 100 - 1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2 - 25 °C, and records of 3 - 10 years each (150 site-years in total). We identified seven subregions with unique seasonal dynamics in climate and ecosystem-atmosphere exchange, including net and gross CO2 exchange (photosynthesis and respiration) and evapotranspiration (ET), and we evaluated how well measured dynamics were captured by satellite-based greenness observations of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). Annual flux integrals were calculated based on site-appropriate ecohydrologic years. Net ecosystem production (NEP) varied between -550 and + 420 g C m-2, highlighting the wide range of regional sink/source function. Annual photosynthesis and respiration were positively related to water availability but were suppressed in warmer years at a given site and at climatically warmer sites, in contrast to positive temperature responses at wetter sites. When precipitation anomalies were spatially coherent across sites (e.g. related to El Niño Southern Oscillation), we found large regional annual anomalies in net and gross CO2 uptake. TBM and RSP were less effective in capturing spatial gradients in mean ET and CO2 exchange across this semiarid region as compared to wetter regions. Measured interannual variability of ET and gross CO2 exchange was 3 - 5 times larger than estimates from TBM or RSP. These results suggest that semiarid regions play an even larger role in regulating interannual variability of the global carbon cycle than currently estimated by models and remote sensing. In on-going work, we expand this spatial-temporal analysis across a broader gradient of water availability using the Fluxnet 2015 dataset.

Estimation of base temperatures for nine weed species.

PubMed

Steinmaus, S J; Prather, T S; Holt, J S

2000-02-01

Experiments were conducted to test several methods for estimating low temperature thresholds for seed germination. Temperature responses of nine weeds common in annual agroecosystems were assessed in temperature gradient experiments. Species included summer annuals (Amaranthus albus, A. palmeri, Digitaria sanguinalis, Echinochloa crus-galli, Portulaca oleracea, and Setaria glauca), winter annuals (Hirschfeldia incana and Sonchus oleraceus), and Conyza canadensis, which is classified as a summer or winter annual. The temperature below which development ceases (Tbase) was estimated as the x-intercept of four conventional germination rate indices regressed on temperature, by repeated probit analysis, and by a mathematical approach. An overall Tbase estimate for each species was the average across indices weighted by the reciprocal of the variance associated with the estimate. Germination rates increased linearly with temperature between 15 degrees C and 30 degrees C for all species. Consistent estimates of Tbase were obtained for most species using several indices. The most statistically robust and biologically relevant method was the reciprocal time to median germination, which can also be used to estimate other biologically meaningful parameters. The mean Tbase for summer annuals (13.8 degrees C) was higher than that for winter annuals (8.3 degrees C). The two germination response characteristics, Tbase and slope (rate), influence a species' germination behaviour in the field since the germination inhibiting effects of a high Tbase may be offset by the germination promoting effects of a rapid germination response to temperature. Estimates of Tbase may be incorporated into predictive thermal time models to assist weed control practitioners in making management decisions.

[Correlation analysis on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of different vegetations and climatic factors in Southwest China].

PubMed

Zhang, Yuan-Dong; Zhang, Xiao-He; Liu, Shi-Rong

2011-02-01

Based on the 1982-2006 NDVI remote sensing data and meteorological data of Southwest China, and by using GIS technology, this paper interpolated and extracted the mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and drought index in the region, and analyzed the correlations of the annual variation of NDVI in different vegetation types (marsh, shrub, bush, grassland, meadow, coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, alpine vegetation, and cultural vegetation) with corresponding climatic factors. In 1982-2006, the NDVI, mean annual temperature, and annual precipitation had an overall increasing trend, and the drought index decreased. Particularly, the upward trend of mean annual temperature was statistically significant. Among the nine vegetation types, the NDVI of bush and mash decreased, and the downward trend was significant for bush. The NDVI of the other seven vegetation types increased, and the upward trend was significant for coniferous forest, meadow, and alpine vegetation, and extremely significant for shrub. The mean annual temperature in the areas with all the nine vegetation types increased significantly, while the annual precipitation had no significant change. The drought index in the areas with marsh, bush, and cultural vegetation presented an increasing trend, that in the areas with meadow and alpine vegetation decreased significantly, and this index in the areas with other four vegetation types had an unobvious decreasing trend. The NDVI of shrub and coniferous forest had a significantly positive correlation with mean annual temperature, and that of shrub and meadow had significantly negative correlation with drought index. Under the conditions of the other two climatic factors unchanged, the NDVI of coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, and alpine vegetation showed the strongest correlation with mean annual temperature, that of grass showed the strongest correlation with annual precipitation, and the NDVI of mash, shrub, grass, meadow, and cultural vegetation showed the strongest correlation with drought index. There existed definite correlations among the climatic factors. If the correlations among the climatic factors were ignored, the significant level of the correlations between NDVI and climatic factors would be somewhat reduced.

Response of Soil Respiration to Soil Temperature and Moisture in a 50-Year-Old Oriental Arborvitae Plantation in China

PubMed Central

Yu, Xinxiao; Zha, Tianshan; Pang, Zhuo; Wu, Bin; Wang, Xiaoping; Chen, Guopeng; Li, Chunping; Cao, Jixin; Jia, Guodong; Li, Xizhi; Wu, Hailong

2011-01-01

China possesses large areas of plantation forests which take up great quantities of carbon. However, studies on soil respiration in these plantation forests are rather scarce and their soil carbon flux remains an uncertainty. In this study, we used an automatic chamber system to measure soil surface flux of a 50-year-old mature plantation of Platycladus orientalis at Jiufeng Mountain, Beijing, China. Mean daily soil respiration rates (Rs) ranged from 0.09 to 4.87 µmol CO2 m−2s−1, with the highest values observed in August and the lowest in the winter months. A logistic model gave the best fit to the relationship between hourly Rs and soil temperature (Ts), explaining 82% of the variation in Rs over the annual cycle. The annual total of soil respiration estimated from the logistic model was 645±5 g C m−2 year−1. The performance of the logistic model was poorest during periods of high soil temperature or low soil volumetric water content (VWC), which limits the model's ability to predict the seasonal dynamics of Rs. The logistic model will potentially overestimate Rs at high Ts and low VWC. Seasonally, Rs increased significantly and linearly with increasing VWC in May and July, in which VWC was low. In the months from August to November, inclusive, in which VWC was not limiting, Rs showed a positively exponential relationship with Ts. The seasonal sensitivity of soil respiration to Ts (Q10) ranged from 0.76 in May to 4.38 in October. It was suggested that soil temperature was the main determinant of soil respiration when soil water was not limiting. PMID:22163012

The annual pressure cycle on Mars: Results from the LMD Martian atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hourdin, Frederic; Forget, Francois; Talagrand, O.

1993-01-01

We have been developing a General Circulation Model (GCM) of the martian atmosphere since 1989. The model has been described rather extensively elsewhere and only the main characteristics are given here. The dynamical part of the model, adapted from the LMD terrestrial climate model, is based on a finite-difference formulation of the classical 'primitive equations of meteorology.' The radiative transfer code includes absorption and emission by CO2 (carefully validated by comparison to line-by-line calculations) and dust in the thermal range and absorption and scattering by dust in the visible range. Other physical parameterizations are included: modeling of vertical turbulent mixing, dry convective adjustment (in order to prevent vertical unstable temperature profiles), and a multilayer model of the thermal conduction in the soil. Finally, the condensation-sublimation of CO2 is introduced through specification of a pressure-dependent condensation temperature. The atmospheric and surface temperatures are prevented from falling below this critical temperature by condensation and direct precipitation onto the surface of atmospheric CO2. The only prespecified spatial fields are the surface thermal inertia, albedo, and topography.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

Background: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. Objectives: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. Methods: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. Conclusions: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47–55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166 PMID:27337737

[Periodic fluctuation features of air temperature, precipitation, and aboveground net primary production of alpine meadow ecosystem on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau].

PubMed

Zhang, Fa-wei; Li, Hong-qin; Li, Ying-nian; Li, Yi-kang; Lin, Li

2009-03-01

With Mexican Hat function as mother function, a wavelet analysis was conducted on the periodic fluctuation features of air temperature, precipitation, and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in the Alpine Meadow Ecosystem Research Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences from 1980 to 2007. The results showed that there was a main period of 13 years for the annual fluctuations of air temperature, precipitation, and ANPP. A secondary period of 2 years for the annual fluctuations of air temperature and ANPP had lesser influence, whereas that of 4 years for the annual fluctuation of precipitation had greater effect. Lagged correlation analysis indicated that the annual fluctuation of ANNP was mainly controlled by the air temperature in a 20 years scale and had a weak 5-9 years lag effect, but there was a less correlation between ANPP and precipitation.

Estimating the power of Mars’ greenhouse effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberle, Robert M.

2013-03-01

Extensive modeling of Mars in conjunction with in situ observations suggests that the annual average global mean surface temperature is Tsbar∼202 K. Yet its effective temperature, i.e., the temperature at which a blackbody radiates away the energy it absorbs, is Te ∼ 208 K. How can a planet with a CO2 atmosphere have a mean annual surface temperature that is actually less than its effective temperature? We use the Ames General Circulation Model explain why this is the case and point out that the correct comparison of the effective temperature is with the effective surface temperature Tse, which is the fourth root of the annual and globally averaged value of Ts4. This may seem obvious, but the distinction is often not recognized in the literature.

Lidar measurements of mesospheric temperature inversion at a low latitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siva Kumar, V.; Bhavani Kumar, Y.; Raghunath, K.; Rao, P. B.; Krishnaiah, M.; Mizutani, K.; Aoki, T.; Yasui, M.; Itabe, T.

2001-08-01

The Rayleigh lidar data collected on 119 nights from March 1998 to February 2000 were used to study the statistical characteristics of the low latitude mesospheric temperature inversion observed over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), India. The occurrence frequency of the inversion showed semiannual variation with maxima in the equinoxes and minima in the summer and winter, which was quite different from that reported for the mid-latitudes. The peak of the inversion layer was found to be confined to the height range of 73 to 79 km with the maximum occurrence centered around 76 km, with a weak seasonal dependence that fits well to an annual cycle with a maximum in June and a minimum in December. The magnitude of the temperature deviation associated with the inversion was found to be as high as 32 K, with the most probable value occurring at about 20 K. Its seasonal dependence seems to follow an annual cycle with a maximum in April and a minimum in October. The observed characteristics of the inversion layer are compared with that of the mid-latitudes and discussed in light of the current understanding of the source mechanisms.

Multi-proxy Paleoclimate and CO2 Reconstruction from the Latest Middle Eocene Sedimentary Fill of a Subarctic Kimberlitic Maar Crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, A. V.; Wolfe, A. P.; Royer, D. L.; Greenwood, D. R.; Tierney, J. E.; Doria, G.; Gagen, M. H.; Siver, P.; Westgate, J.

2016-12-01

Eocene paleoclimate reconstructions are rarely accompanied by parallel estimates of CO2, complicating assessment of the equilibrium climate responses to CO2. We reconstruct temperature, precipitation, and CO2 from latest middle Eocene ( 38 Myrs ago) peats in subarctic Canada, preserved in sediments that record infilling of a kimberlite pipe maar crater. Mutual climatic range analyses of pollen, together with oxygen isotope analyses of a-cellulose from unpermineralized wood and inferenecs from branched glycerol diakyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), reveal a high-latitude humid-temperate forest ecosystem with mean annual temperatures (MATs) >17 °C warmer than present, mean coldest month temperatures above 0 °C, and mean annual precipitation 4x present. Metasequoia stomatal indices and gas-exchange modeling produce median CO2 concentrations of 634 and 432 ppm, respectively, with a consensus median estimate of 494 ppm. Reconstructed MATs are >6 °C warmer than those produced by Eocene climate models forced at 560 ppm CO2, underscoring the capacity for exceptional polar amplification of warming and hydrological intensification under relatively modest CO2 concentrations, once both fast and slow feedbacks become expressed.

Statistical attribution analysis of the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River.

PubMed

Xiong, Lihua; Jiang, Cong; Du, Tao

2014-01-01

Time-varying moments models based on Pearson Type III and normal distributions respectively are built under the generalized additive model in location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to analyze the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The detection of nonstationarities in hydrological time series (annual runoff, precipitation and temperature) from 1960 to 2009 is carried out using a GAMLSS model, and then the covariate analysis for the annual runoff series is implemented with GAMLSS. Finally, the attribution of each covariate to the nonstationarity of annual runoff is analyzed quantitatively. The results demonstrate that (1) obvious change-points exist in all three hydrological series, (2) precipitation, temperature and irrigated area are all significant covariates of the annual runoff series, and (3) temperature increase plays the main role in leading to the reduction of the annual runoff series in the study basin, followed by the decrease of precipitation and the increase of irrigated area.

Regulation of an unexploited brown trout population in Spruce Creek, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carline, R.F.

2006-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe the annual variations in the density of an unexploited population of lotic brown trout Salmo trutta that has been censused annually for 19 years and to explore the importance of density-independent and density-dependent processes in regulating population size. Brown trout density and indices of stream discharge and water temperature were related to annual variations in natural mortality, recruitment, and growth. Annual mortality of age-1 and older (age-1+) brown trout ranged from 0.30 to 0.75 and was best explained by discharge during spring and by brown trout density. Recruitment to age 1 varied fivefold. Density of age-1 brown trout was inversely related to spawner density and positively related to discharge during the fall spawning period. The median length of age-1 brown trout was positively related to discharge during summer and fall. Relative weight was inversely related to the density of age-2+ brown trout. The interactive effects of discharge and brown trout density accounted for most of the annual variation in mortality, recruitment, and growth during the first year of life. Annual trends in the abundance of age-1+ brown trout were largely dictated by natural mortality. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2011-01-01

A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Aboveground carbon sequestration in dry temperate forests varies with climate not fire regime.

PubMed

Gordon, Christopher E; Bendall, Eli R; Stares, Mitchell G; Collins, Luke; Bradstock, Ross A

2018-06-01

The storage of carbon in plant tissues and debris has been proposed as a method to offset anthropogenic increases in atmospheric [CO 2 ]. Temperate forests represent significant above-ground carbon (AGC) "sinks" because their relatively fast growth and slow decay rates optimise carbon assimilation. Fire is a common disturbance event in temperate forests globally that should strongly influence AGC because: discrete fires consume above-ground biomass releasing carbon to the atmosphere, and the long-term application of different fire-regimes select for specific plant communities that sequester carbon at different rates. We investigated the latter process by quantifying AGC storage at 104 sites in the Sydney Basin Bioregion, Australia, relative to differences in components of the fire regime: frequency, severity and interfire interval. To predict the potential impacts of future climate change on fire/AGC interactions, we stratified our field sites across gradients of mean annual temperature and precipitation and quantified within- and between-factor interactions between the fire and climate variables. In agreement with previous studies, large trees were the primary AGC sink, accounting for ~70% of carbon at sites. Generalised additive models showed that mean annual temperature was the strongest predictor of AGC storage, with a 54% near-linear decrease predicted across the 6.1°C temperature range experienced at sites. Mean annual precipitation, fire frequency, fire severity and interfire interval were consistently poor predictors of total above-ground storage, although there were some significant relationships with component stocks. Our results show resilience of AGC to frequent and severe wildfire and suggest temperature mediated decreases in forest carbon storage under future climate change predictions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Negative response of photosynthesis to natural and projected high seawater temperatures estimated by pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry in a temperate coral.

PubMed

Caroselli, Erik; Falini, Giuseppe; Goffredo, Stefano; Dubinsky, Zvy; Levy, Oren

2015-01-01

Balanophyllia europaea is a shallow water solitary zooxanthellate coral, endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. Extensive field studies across a latitudinal temperature gradient highlight detrimental effects of rising temperatures on its growth, demography, and skeletal characteristics, suggesting that depression of photosynthesis at high temperatures might cause these negative effects. Here we test this hypothesis by analyzing, by means of pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry, the photosynthetic efficiency of B. europaea specimens exposed in aquaria to the annual range of temperatures experienced in the field (13, 18, and 28°C), and two extreme temperatures expected for 2100 as a consequence of global warming (29 and 32°C). The indicators of photosynthetic performance analyzed (maximum and effective quantum yield) showed that maximum efficiency was reached at 20.0-21.6°C, slightly higher than the annual mean temperature in the field (18°C). Photosynthetic efficiency decreased from 20.0 to 13°C and even more strongly from 21.6 to 32°C. An unusual form of bleaching was observed, with a maximum zooxanthellae density at 18°C that strongly decreased from 18 to 32°C. Chlorophyll a concentration per zooxanthellae cell showed an opposite trend as it was minimal at 18°C and increased from 18 to 32°C. Since the areal chlorophyll concentration is the product of the zooxanthellae density and its cellular content, these trends resulted in a homogeneous chlorophyll concentration per coral surface across temperature treatments. This confirms that B. europaea photosynthesis is progressively depressed at temperatures >21.6°C, supporting previous hypotheses raised by the studies on growth and demography of this species. This study also confirms the threats posed to this species by the ongoing seawater warming.

Concentrations and annual fluxes for selected water-quality constituents from the USGS National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) 1996-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Valerie J.; Hooper, Richard P.; Aulenbach, Brent T.; Janet, Mary

2001-01-01

This report contains concentrations and annual mass fluxes (loadings) for a broad range of water-quality constituents measured during 1996-2000 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN). During this period, NASQAN operated a network of 40-42 stations in four of the largest river basins of the USA: the Colorado, the Columbia, the Mississippi (including the Missouri and Ohio), and the Rio Grande. The report contains surface-water quality data, streamflow data, field measurements (e.g. water temperature and pH), sediment-chemistry data, and quality-assurance data; interpretive products include annual and average loads, regression parameters for models used to estimate loads, sub-basin yield maps, maps depicting percent detections for censored constituents, and diagrams depicting flow-weighted average concentrations. Where possible, a regression model relating concentration to discharge and season was used for flux estimation. The interpretive context provided by annual loads includes identifying source and sink areas for constituents and estimating the loadings to receiving waters, such as reservoirs or the ocean.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Thermal tolerance during early ontogeny in the common whelk Buccinum undatum (Linnaeus 1785): Bioenergetics, nurse egg partitioning and developmental success

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Kathryn E.; Thatje, Sven; Hauton, Chris

2013-05-01

Temperature is arguably the primary factor affecting development in ectotherms and, as a result, may be the driving force behind setting species' geographic limits. The shallow-water gastropod Buccinum undatum is distributed widely throughout the North Atlantic, with an overall annual thermal range of below zero to above 22 °C. In UK waters this species is a winter spawner. Egg masses are laid and develop when sea temperatures are at their coolest (4 to 10 °C) indicating future climate warming may have the potential to cause range shifts in this species. In order to examine the potential impacts of ocean warming, we investigate the effects of temperature on the early ontogeny of B. undatum across a thermal range of 0 to 22 °C. Each egg mass consists of approximately 100 capsules, in which embryos undergo direct development. Successful development was observed at temperatures ranging from 6 to 18 °C. Rates of development increased with temperature, but the proportion of each egg mass developing successfully decreased at the same time. With increasing temperature, the mean early veliger weight increased, but the number of early veligers developing per capsule decreased, suggesting a negative impact on the number of crawl-away juveniles produced per capsule. Elemental analysis showed both carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) to increase with temperature in early veligers but not in hatching juveniles, indicating greater energy reserves are accumulated during early ontogeny to compensate for the higher energetic demands of development at higher temperature. The developmental plasticity observed in B. undatum suggests this species to be capable of adapting to temperatures above those it currently experiences in nature. B. undatum may possess a thermal resilience to ocean warming at its current upper temperature distribution limit. This thermal resilience, however, may come at the cost of a reduced offspring number.

Projecting effects of climate change on marine systems: is the mean all that matters?

PubMed Central

Boersma, Maarten; Grüner, Nico; Tasso Signorelli, Natália; Montoro González, Pedro E.; Wiltshire, Karen H.

2016-01-01

Studies dealing with the effects of changing global temperatures on living organisms typically concentrate on annual mean temperatures. This, however, might not be the best approach in temperate systems with large seasonality where the mean annual temperature is actually not experienced very frequently. The mean annual temperature across a 50-year, daily time series of measurements at Helgoland Roads (54.2° N, 7.9° E) is 10.1°C while seasonal data are characterized by a clear, bimodal distribution; temperatures are around 6°C in winter and 15°C in summer with rapid transitions in spring and autumn. Across those 50 years, the temperature at which growth is maximal for each single bloom event for 115 phytoplankton species (more than 6000 estimates of optimal temperature) mirrors the bimodal distribution of the in situ temperatures. Moreover, independent laboratory data on temperature optima for growth of North Sea organisms yielded similar results: a deviance from the normal distribution, with a gap close to the mean annual temperature, and more optima either above or below this temperature. We conclude that organisms, particularly those that are short-lived, are either adapted to the prevailing winter or summer temperatures in temperate areas and that few species exist with thermal optima within the periods characterized by rapid spring warming and autumn cooling. PMID:26791614

Projecting effects of climate change on marine systems: is the mean all that matters?

PubMed

Boersma, Maarten; Grüner, Nico; Tasso Signorelli, Natália; Montoro González, Pedro E; Peck, Myron A; Wiltshire, Karen H

2016-01-27

Studies dealing with the effects of changing global temperatures on living organisms typically concentrate on annual mean temperatures. This, however, might not be the best approach in temperate systems with large seasonality where the mean annual temperature is actually not experienced very frequently. The mean annual temperature across a 50-year, daily time series of measurements at Helgoland Roads (54.2° N, 7.9° E) is 10.1°C while seasonal data are characterized by a clear, bimodal distribution; temperatures are around 6°C in winter and 15°C in summer with rapid transitions in spring and autumn. Across those 50 years, the temperature at which growth is maximal for each single bloom event for 115 phytoplankton species (more than 6000 estimates of optimal temperature) mirrors the bimodal distribution of the in situ temperatures. Moreover, independent laboratory data on temperature optima for growth of North Sea organisms yielded similar results: a deviance from the normal distribution, with a gap close to the mean annual temperature, and more optima either above or below this temperature. We conclude that organisms, particularly those that are short-lived, are either adapted to the prevailing winter or summer temperatures in temperate areas and that few species exist with thermal optima within the periods characterized by rapid spring warming and autumn cooling. © 2016 The Author(s).

Annual Soil Temperature Wave at Four Depths in Southwestern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Richard S. Sartz

1967-01-01

Soil temperature was measured for a year on a southeast-facing slope of 25 percent, latitude 43 degrees 50 minutes N. The spring-summer cover was unmowed alfalfa-bluegrass meadow, the fall-winter cover, meadow stubble. Snow cover was light or absent. The soil was Fayette silt loam, valley phase. The annual temperature wave at all depths followed the air temperature...

Evaluation of temperature differences for paired stations of the U.S. Climate Reference Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallo, K.P.

2005-01-01

Adjustments to data observed at pairs of climate stations have been recommended to remove the biases introduced by differences between the stations in time of observation, temperature instrumentatios, latitude, and elevation. A new network of climate stations, located in rural settings, permits comparisons of temperatures for several pairs of stations without two of the biases (time of observation and instrurtientation). The daily, monthly, and annual minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures were compared for five pairs of stations included in the U.S. Climate Reference Network. Significant differences were found between the paired stations in the annual minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures for all five pairs of stations. Adjustments for latitude and elevation differences contributed to greater differences in mean annual temperature for four of the five stations. Lapse rates computed from the mean annual temperature differences between station pairs differed from a constant value, whether or not latitude adjustments were made to the data. The results suggest that microclimate influences on temperatures observed at nearby (horizontally and vertically) stations are potentially much greater than influences that might be due to latitude or elevation differences between the stations. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.

[Relationship between reference values of fibrinogen and geographical factors based on neural network analysis].

PubMed

Li, Meng-Jiao; Ge, Miao; Wang, Cong-Xia; Cen, Min-Yi; Jiang, Ji-Lin; He, Jin-Wei; Lin, Qian-Yi; Liu, Xin

2016-08-20

To analyze the relationship between the reference values of fibrinogen (FIB) in healthy Chinese adults and geographical factors to provide scientific evidences for establishing the uniform standard. The reference values of FIB of 10701 Chinese healthy adults from 103 cities were collected to investigate their relationship with 18 geographical factors including spatial index, terrain index, climate index, and soil index. Geographical factors that significantly correlated with the reference values were selected for constructing the BP neural network model. The spatial distribution map of the reference value of FIB of healthy Chinese adults was fitted by disjunctive kriging interpolation. We used the 5-layer neural network and selected 2000 times of training covering 11 hidden layers to build the simulation rule for simulating the relationship between FIB and geographical environmental factors using the MATLAB software. s The reference value of FIB in healthy Chinese adults was significantly correlated with the latitude, sunshine duration, annual average temperature, annual average relative humidity, annual precipitation, annual range of air temperature, average annual soil gravel content, and soil cation exchange capacity (silt). The artificial neural networks were created to analyze the simulation of the selected indicators of geographical factors. The spatial distribution map of the reference values of FIB in healthy Chinese adults showed a distribution pattern that FIB levels were higher in the South and lower in the North, and higher in the East and lower in the West. When the geographical factors of a certain area are known, the reference values of FIB in healthy Chinese adults can be obtained by establishing the neural network mode or plotting the spatial distribution map.

Mineral resource of the month: lime

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2009-01-01

The article presents facts about lime, which is said to be a caustic chemical manufactured from limestone or other calcium carbonates in a kiln at temperatures ranging from 935 to 1,350 degrees Celsius. It states that lime is widely used in industries such as steelmaking, paper production and chemical manufacturing. It also mentions that global lime production amounts up to 280 million metric tons annually. However, it notes that international trade in lime is limited.

Toward a Global 1/25degree HYCOM Ocean Prediction System with Tides

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

configurations of ARCc. 6 Figure 4. Annual temperature field at 200 m. Left: ARCc0.72 experiment 040 (2006); Middle: GDEM climatology...Eurasian Basin. Solid lines indicate results from ARCc0.72 experiment 040 (black), 060 (blue) and GDEM climatology (green). Shades delineate 10 – 90...range of the data. Note the Atlantic Layer (positive T) is markedly well simulated in experiment 040 compared to GDEM profile. Figure 7

Investigation into the Implications of Fuel Cell Shipboard Integration into the T-AGOS 19 Class

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-01

with each defined by its fundamental electrolyte: i. Alkali Fuel Cells (AFC) ii. Polymer Exchange Membrane ( PEM ) iii. Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cells ...of the PEM family (High Temperature – HTPEM and Direct Methanol Fuel Cells – DMFC) were assessed against a range of basic ship requirements...of Stationary PEM Fuel Cell Systems”, DOE hydrogen program 2010 annual report. [11] US Energy Information Administration, “EIA - Weekly Retail

Exploring the universal ecological responses to climate change in a univoltine butterfly.

PubMed

Fenberg, Phillip B; Self, Angela; Stewart, John R; Wilson, Rebecca J; Brooks, Stephen J

2016-05-01

Animals with distinct life stages are often exposed to different temperatures during each stage. Thus, how temperature affects these life stages should be considered for broadly understanding the ecological consequences of climate warming on such species. For example, temperature variation during particular life stages may affect respective change in body size, phenology and geographic range, which have been identified as the "universal" ecological responses to climate change. While each of these responses has been separately documented across a number of species, it is not known whether each response occurs together within a species. The influence of temperature during particular life stages may help explain each of these ecological responses to climate change. Our goal was to determine if monthly temperature variation during particular life stages of a butterfly species can predict respective changes in body size and phenology. We also refer to the literature to assess if temperature variability during the adult stage influences range change over time. Using historical museum collections paired with monthly temperature records, we show that changes in body size and phenology of the univoltine butterfly, Hesperia comma, are partly dependent upon temporal variation in summer temperatures during key stages of their life cycle. June temperatures, which are likely to affect growth rate of the final larval instar, are important for predicting adult body size (for males only; showing a positive relationship with temperature). July temperatures, which are likely to influence the pupal stage, are important for predicting the timing of adult emergence (showing a negative relationship with temperature). Previous studies show that August temperatures, which act on the adult stage, are linked to range change. Our study highlights the importance of considering temperature variation during each life stage over historic time-scales for understanding intraspecific response to climate change. Range edge studies of ectothermic species that have annual life cycles, long time-series occurrence data, and associated temperature records (ideally at monthly resolutions) could be useful model systems for intraspecific tests of the universal ecological responses to climate change and for exploring interactive effects. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Inferring watershed hydraulics and cold-water habitat persistence using multi-year air and stream temperature signals.

PubMed

Briggs, Martin A; Johnson, Zachary C; Snyder, Craig D; Hitt, Nathaniel P; Kurylyk, Barret L; Lautz, Laura; Irvine, Dylan J; Hurley, Stephen T; Lane, John W

2018-09-15

Streams strongly influenced by groundwater discharge may serve as "climate refugia" for sensitive species in regions of increasingly marginal thermal conditions. The main goal of this study is to develop paired air and stream water annual temperature signal analysis techniques to elucidate the relative groundwater contribution to stream water and the effective groundwater flowpath depth. Groundwater discharge to streams attenuates surface water temperature signals, and this attenuation can be diagnostic of groundwater gaining systems. Additionally, discharge from shallow groundwater flowpaths can theoretically transfer lagged annual temperature signals from aquifer to stream water. Here we explore this concept using multi-year temperature records from 120 stream sites located across 18 mountain watersheds of Shenandoah National Park, VA, USA and a coastal watershed in Massachusetts, USA. Both areas constitute important cold-water habitat for native brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). Observed annual temperature signals indicate a dominance of shallow groundwater discharge to streams in the National Park, in contrast to the coastal watershed that has strong, apparently deeper, groundwater influence. The average phase lag from air to stream signals in Shenandoah National Park is 11 d; however, extended lags of approximately 1 month were observed in a subset of streams. In contrast, the coastal stream has pronounced attenuation of annual temperature signals without notable phase lag. To better understand these observed differences in signal characteristics, analytical and numerical models are used to quantify mixing of the annual temperature signals of surface and groundwater. Simulations using a total heat budget numerical model indicate groundwater-induced annual temperature signal phase lags are likely to show greater downstream propagation than the related signal amplitude attenuation. The measurement of multi-seasonal paired air and water temperatures offers great promise toward understanding catchment processes and informing current cold-water habitat management at ecologically-relevant scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Annual variability of ozone along alpine hillsides

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putz, Erich; Kosmus, Walter

1994-01-01

Over a period of more than two years (March 1989 till June 1991) ozone and nitrogen dioxide have been monitored along twelve alpine hillsides in the Austrian alps. The profiles had a height-resolution of 100 m and cover a range between 400 m and 1800 m asl, that is 100 m to 1100 m above the bottom of the valleys. They were situated in remote rural areas as well as in the vicinity of polluted urban and industrial areas. Both trace gases were monitored by means of integral chemical (SAM-surface active monitor) methods with a measuring cycle of two weeks. The concentration of ozone exhibits a substantial annual variation over the entire height range. In summer, highest ozone levels are observed near the ground and at the top of the mountains, whereas in winter the maxima are found mainly in the crest regions. The overall ozone burden shows a relative maximum near the temperature inversion layer in the valleys and an absolute maximum at the crest.

Sr/Ca proxy sea-surface temperature reconstructions from modern and holocene Montastraea faveolata specimens from the Dry Tortugas National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flannery, Jennifer A.; Poore, Richard Z.

2013-01-01

Sr/Ca ratios from skeletal samples from two Montastraea faveolata corals (one modern, one Holocene, ~6 Ka) from the Dry Tortugas National Park were measured as a proxy for sea-surface temperature (SST). We sampled coral specimens with a computer-driven triaxial micromilling machine, which yielded an average of 15 homogenous samples per annual growth increment. We regressed Sr/Ca values from resulting powdered samples against a local SST record to obtain a calibration equation of Sr/Ca = -0.0392 SST + 10.205, R = -0.97. The resulting calibration was used to generate a 47-year modern (1961-2008) and a 7-year Holocene (~6 Ka) Sr/Ca subannually resolved proxy record of SST. The modern M. faveolata yields well-defined annual Sr/Ca cycles ranging in amplitude from ~0.3 and 0.5 mmol/mol. The amplitude of ~0.3 to 0.5 mmol/mol equates to a 10-15°C seasonal SST amplitude, which is consistent with available local instrumental records. Summer maxima proxy SSTs calculated from the modern coral Sr/ Ca tend to be fairly stable: most SST maxima from 1961–2008 are 29°C ± 1°C. In contrast, winter minimum SST calculated in the 47-year modern time-series are highly variable, with a cool interval in the early to mid-1970s. The Holocene (~6 Ka) Montastraea faveolata coral also yields distinct annual Sr/Ca cycles with amplitudes ranging from ~0.3 to 0.6 mmol/mol. Absolute Sr/Ca values and thus resulting SST estimates over the ~7-year long record are similar to those from the modern coral. We conclude that Sr/Ca from Montastraea faveolata has high potential for developing subannually resolved Holocene SST records.

Introducing global peat-specific temperature and pH calibrations based on brGDGT bacterial lipids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naafs, B. D. A.; Inglis, G. N.; Zheng, Y.; Amesbury, M. J.; Biester, H.; Bindler, R.; Blewett, J.; Burrows, M. A.; del Castillo Torres, D.; Chambers, F. M.; Cohen, A. D.; Evershed, R. P.; Feakins, S. J.; Gałka, M.; Gallego-Sala, A.; Gandois, L.; Gray, D. M.; Hatcher, P. G.; Honorio Coronado, E. N.; Hughes, P. D. M.; Huguet, A.; Könönen, M.; Laggoun-Défarge, F.; Lähteenoja, O.; Lamentowicz, M.; Marchant, R.; McClymont, E.; Pontevedra-Pombal, X.; Ponton, C.; Pourmand, A.; Rizzuti, A. M.; Rochefort, L.; Schellekens, J.; De Vleeschouwer, F.; Pancost, R. D.

2017-07-01

Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) are membrane-spanning lipids from Bacteria and Archaea that are ubiquitous in a range of natural archives and especially abundant in peat. Previous work demonstrated that the distribution of bacterial branched GDGTs (brGDGTs) in mineral soils is correlated to environmental factors such as mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and soil pH. However, the influence of these parameters on brGDGT distributions in peat is largely unknown. Here we investigate the distribution of brGDGTs in 470 samples from 96 peatlands around the world with a broad mean annual air temperature (-8 to 27 °C) and pH (3-8) range and present the first peat-specific brGDGT-based temperature and pH calibrations. Our results demonstrate that the degree of cyclisation of brGDGTs in peat is positively correlated with pH, pH = 2.49 × CBTpeat + 8.07 (n = 51, R2 = 0.58, RMSE = 0.8) and the degree of methylation of brGDGTs is positively correlated with MAAT, MAATpeat (°C) = 52.18 × MBT5me‧ - 23.05 (n = 96, R2 = 0.76, RMSE = 4.7 °C). These peat-specific calibrations are distinct from the available mineral soil calibrations. In light of the error in the temperature calibration (∼4.7 °C), we urge caution in any application to reconstruct late Holocene climate variability, where the climatic signals are relatively small, and the duration of excursions could be brief. Instead, these proxies are well-suited to reconstruct large amplitude, longer-term shifts in climate such as deglacial transitions. Indeed, when applied to a peat deposit spanning the late glacial period (∼15.2 kyr), we demonstrate that MAATpeat yields absolute temperatures and relative temperature changes that are consistent with those from other proxies. In addition, the application of MAATpeat to fossil peat (i.e. lignites) has the potential to reconstruct terrestrial climate during the Cenozoic. We conclude that there is clear potential to use brGDGTs in peats and lignites to reconstruct past terrestrial climate.

The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China.

PubMed

Dai, Junhu; Wang, Huanjiong; Ge, Quansheng

2014-05-01

Leaf phenology has been shown to be one of the most important indicators of the effects of climate change on biological systems. Few such studies have, however, been published detailing the relationship between phenology and climate change in Asian contexts. With the aim of quantifying species' phenological responsiveness to temperature and deepening understandings of spatial patterns of phenological and climate change in China, this study analyzes the first leaf date (FLD) and the leaf coloring date (LCD) from datasets of four woody plant species, Robinia pseudoacacia, Ulmus pumila, Salix babylonica, and Melia azedarach, collected from 1963 to 2009 at 47 Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) stations spread across China (from 21° to 50° N). The results of this study show that changes in temperatures in the range of 39-43 days preceding the date of FLD of these plants affected annual variations in FLD, while annual variations in temperature in the range of 71-85 days preceding LCD of these plants affected the date of LCD. Average temperature sensitivity of FLD and LCD for these plants was -3.93 to 3.30 days °C(-1) and 2.11 to 4.43 days °C⁻¹, respectively. Temperature sensitivity of FLD was found to be stronger at lower latitudes or altitude as well as in more continental climates, while the response of LCD showed no consistent pattern. Within the context of significant warming across China during the study period, FLD was found to have advanced by 5.44 days from 1960 to 2009; over the same period, LCD was found to have been delayed by 4.56 days. These findings indicate that the length of the growing season of the four plant species studied was extended by a total of 10.00 days from 1960 to 2009. They also indicate that phenological response to climate is highly heterogeneous spatially.

Leaf litter decomposition rates increase with rising mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests

PubMed Central

Bothwell, Lori D.; Giardina, Christian P.; Litton, Creighton M.

2014-01-01

Decomposing litter in forest ecosystems supplies nutrients to plants, carbon to heterotrophic soil microorganisms and is a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Despite its essential role in carbon and nutrient cycling, the temperature sensitivity of leaf litter decay in tropical forest ecosystems remains poorly resolved, especially in tropical montane wet forests where the warming trend may be amplified compared to tropical wet forests at lower elevations. We quantified leaf litter decomposition rates along a highly constrained 5.2 °C mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient in tropical montane wet forests on the Island of Hawaii. Dominant vegetation, substrate type and age, soil moisture, and disturbance history are all nearly constant across this gradient, allowing us to isolate the effect of rising MAT on leaf litter decomposition and nutrient release. Leaf litter decomposition rates were a positive linear function of MAT, causing the residence time of leaf litter on the forest floor to decline by ∼31 days for each 1 °C increase in MAT. Our estimate of the Q10 temperature coefficient for leaf litter decomposition was 2.17, within the commonly reported range for heterotrophic organic matter decomposition (1.5–2.5) across a broad range of ecosystems. The percentage of leaf litter nitrogen (N) remaining after six months declined linearly with increasing MAT from ∼88% of initial N at the coolest site to ∼74% at the warmest site. The lack of net N immobilization during all three litter collection periods at all MAT plots indicates that N was not limiting to leaf litter decomposition, regardless of temperature. These results suggest that leaf litter decay in tropical montane wet forests may be more sensitive to rising MAT than in tropical lowland wet forests, and that increased rates of N release from decomposing litter could delay or prevent progressive N limitation to net primary productivity with climate warming. PMID:25493213

Identifying the microbial taxa that consistently respond to soil warming across time and space.

PubMed

Oliverio, Angela M; Bradford, Mark A; Fierer, Noah

2017-05-01

Soil microbial communities are the key drivers of many terrestrial biogeochemical processes. However, we currently lack a generalizable understanding of how these soil communities will change in response to predicted increases in global temperatures and which microbial lineages will be most impacted. Here, using high-throughput marker gene sequencing of soils collected from 18 sites throughout North America included in a 100-day laboratory incubation experiment, we identified a core group of abundant and nearly ubiquitous soil microbes that shift in relative abundance with elevated soil temperatures. We then validated and narrowed our list of temperature-sensitive microbes by comparing the results from this laboratory experiment with data compiled from 210 soils representing multiple, independent global field studies sampled across spatial gradients with a wide range in mean annual temperatures. Our results reveal predictable and consistent responses to temperature for a core group of 189 ubiquitous soil bacterial and archaeal taxa, with these taxa exhibiting similar temperature responses across a broad range of soil types. These microbial 'bioindicators' are useful for understanding how soil microbial communities respond to warming and to discriminate between the direct and indirect effects of soil warming on microbial communities. Those taxa that were found to be sensitive to temperature represented a wide range of lineages and the direction of the temperature responses were not predictable from phylogeny alone, indicating that temperature responses are difficult to predict from simply describing soil microbial communities at broad taxonomic or phylogenetic levels of resolution. Together, these results lay the foundation for a more predictive understanding of how soil microbial communities respond to soil warming and how warming may ultimately lead to changes in soil biogeochemical processes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seed Dormancy, After‐ripening and Light Requirements of Four Annual Asteraceae in South‐western Australia

PubMed Central

SCHÜTZ, W.; MILBERG, P.; LAMONT, B. B.

2002-01-01

The role of dormancy, temperature and light in the regulation of seed germination of four annual Asteraceae from south‐western Australia was investigated. The experiments aimed to identify after‐ripening patterns, and to relate these to climatic conditions of the habitat in which the species occur. Seeds of all species were strongly dormant at maturity and maintained high levels of dormancy for time periods corresponding to the duration of summer in south‐western Australia. Dry after‐ripening was promoted best by temperatures lower than those prevailing in the dry season, although differences among storage temperatures were mostly insignificant. Germination percentages were highest at average winter temperatures (15 °C). A logistic model revealed significant differences in germinability among species, but not between incubation temperatures or light and dark treatments across species. Three species with seeds >0·5 mg germinated better in darkness than in light, whereas germination in darkness was almost inhibited in the species with the smallest seeds (0·14 mg). The course of dormancy loss, tested over a range of fluctuating incubation temperatures (7–30 °C), showed that seeds of three species came out of dormancy first at temperatures that prevail in south‐western Australia during the winter (10–15 °C). Seeds from one species, introduced from South Africa, first lost dormancy at the lowest temperature (7 °C). All species showed after‐ripening patterns of Type 1, typical of species growing in Mediterranean climates. The germination characteristics of the investigated species can be interpreted as ensuring that initial growth and establishment occur during the winter growing season, thereby avoiding the hot and dry summer conditions that follow seed dispersal. PMID:12451026

Unexpected early extinction of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) in Sweden and climatic impact on its Holocene range.

PubMed

Sommer, Robert S; Lindqvist, Charlotte; Persson, Arne; Bringsøe, Henrik; Rhodin, Anders G J; Schneeweiss, Norbert; Siroký, Pavel; Bachmann, Lutz; Fritz, Uwe

2009-03-01

Using ancient DNA sequences of subfossil European pond turtles (Emys orbicularis) from Britain, Central and North Europe and accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating for turtle remains from most Swedish sites, we provide evidence for a Holocene range expansion of the pond turtle from the southeastern Balkans into Britain, Central Europe and Scandinavia, according to the 'grasshopper pattern' of Hewitt. Northeastern Europe and adjacent Asia were colonized from another refuge located further east. With increasing annual mean temperatures, pond turtles reached southern Sweden approximately 9800 years ago. Until approximately 5500 years ago, rising temperatures facilitated a further range expansion up to Ostergötland, Sweden (approximately 58 degrees 30'N). However, around 5500 years ago pond turtle records suddenly terminate in Sweden, some 1500 years before the Holocene thermal maximum ended in Scandinavia and distinctly earlier than previously thought. This extinction coincides with a temporary cooling oscillation during the Holocene thermal maximum and is likely related to lower summer temperatures deteriorating reproductive success. Although climatic conditions improved later again, recolonization of Sweden from southern source populations was prevented by the Holocene submergence of the previous land connection via the Danish Straits that occurred approximately 8500 years ago.

The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

2017-04-01

Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

A simple-harmonic model for depicting the annual cycle of seasonal temperatures of streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steele, Timothy Doak

1978-01-01

Due to economic or operational constraints, stream-temperature records cannot always be collected at all sites where information is desired or at frequencies dictated by continuous or near-continuous surveillance requirements. For streams where only periodic measurements are made during the year, and that are not appreciably affected by regulation or by thermal loading , a simple harmonic function may adequately depict the annual seasonal cycle of stream temperature at any given site. Resultant harmonic coefficients obtained from available stream-temperature records may be used in the following ways: (1) To interpolate between discrete measurements by solving the harmonic function at specified times, thereby filling in estimates of stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature conditions; and (3) to detect and to assess any significant at a site brought about by streamflow regulation or basin development. Moreover, less-than-daily or sampling frequencies at a given site may give estimates of annual variation of stream temperatures that are statistically comparable to estimates obtained from a daily or continuous sampling scheme. The latter procedure may result in potential savings of resources in network operations, with negligible loss in information on annual stream-temperature variations. (Woodard -USGS)

Evidence of Tree Species’ Range Shifts in a Complex Landscape

PubMed Central

Monleon, Vicente J.; Lintz, Heather E.

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to change the distribution of species. For long-lived, sessile species such as trees, tracking the warming climate depends on seedling colonization of newly favorable areas. We compare the distribution of seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and Washington, United States of America, a large, environmentally diverse region. Across 46 species, the mean annual temperature of the range of seedlings was 0.120°C colder than that of the range of trees (95% confidence interval from 0.096 to 0.144°C). The extremes of the seedling distributions also shifted towards colder temperature than those of mature trees, but the change was less pronounced. Although the mean elevation and mean latitude of the range of seedlings was higher than and north of those of the range of mature trees, elevational and latitudinal shifts run in opposite directions for the majority of the species, reflecting the lack of a direct biological relationship between species’ distributions and those variables. The broad scale, environmental diversity and variety of disturbance regimes and land uses of the study area, the large number and exhaustive sampling of tree species, and the direct causal relationship between the temperature response and a warming climate, provide strong evidence to attribute the observed shifts to climate change. PMID:25634090

Six-year longitudinal study of Fasciola hepatica bulk milk antibody ELISA in the dairy dense region of the Republic Ireland.

PubMed

Munita, M P; Rea, R; Bloemhoff, Y; Byrne, N; Martinez-Ibeas, A M; Sayers, R G

2016-11-01

Completion of the F. hepatica lifecycle is dependent on suitable climatic conditions for development of immature stages of the parasite, and its snail intermediate host. Few investigations have been conducted regarding temporal variations in F. hepatica status in Irish dairy herds. The current study aimed to conduct a longitudinal study examining annual and seasonal trends in bulk milk seropositivity over six years, while also investigating associations with soil temperature, rainfall and flukicide treatment. Monthly bulk milk samples (BTM) were submitted by 28 herds between March 2009 and December 2014. In all, 1337 samples were analysed using a Cathepsin L1 ELISA. Soil temperature, rainfall and management data were obtained for general estimating equation and regression analyses. A general decrease in milk seropositivity was observed over the six year study period and was associated with an increased likelihood of treating for liver fluke (OR range=2.73-6.96). Annual and seasonal analyses of rainfall and F. hepatica BTM status yielded conflicting results. Higher annual rainfall (>1150mm) yielded a lower likelihood of being BTM positive than annual rainfall of <1000mm (OR=0.47; P=0.036). This was most likely due to farmers being more proactive in treating for F. hepatica in wetter years, although a 'wash effect' by high rainfall of the free living stages and snails cannot be ruled out. Higher seasonal rainfall (>120mm), however, was associated with increased ELISA S/P% values (Coefficient=9.63S/P%; P=0.001). Soil temperature was not found to influence F. hepatica to the same extent as rainfall and may reflect the lack of severe temperature fluctuations in Ireland. Flukicides active against both immature and mature F. hepatica were approximately half as likely to record a positive F. hepatica herd BTM status than a flukicide active against only the mature stage of the parasite (OR≅0.45; P<0.01). This study highlights the importance of examining both annual and seasonal F. hepatica data, which can vary significantly. Additionally, it highlights the progress that can be achieved in fluke control by application of a continuous BTM monitoring program. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The bivalve Glycymeris planicostalis as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for Rupelian (Early Oligocene) of Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walliser, E. O.; Schöne, B. R.; Tütken, T.; Zirkel, J.; Grimm, K. I.; Pross, J.

2014-10-01

Current global warming is likely to result in a unipolar glaciated world with unpredictable repercussions on atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. These changes are expected to affect seasonality as well as the frequency and intensity of decadal climate oscillations. To better constrain the mode and tempo of the anticipated changes, climatologists require high-resolution proxy data of time intervals in the past, e.g. the Early Oligocene during which boundary conditions were similar to those predicted for the near future. As demonstrated by the present study, pristinely preserved shells of the long-lived bivalve mollusk Glycymeris planicostalis from the late Rupelian of the Mainz Basin, Germany, provide an excellent archive to reconstruct changes of sea surface temperature on seasonal to inter-annual time scales. Their shells grew uninterruptedly during winter and summer and therefore recorded the full seasonal temperature amplitude that prevailed in the Mainz Basin 30 Ma ago. Absolute sea surface temperature data were faithfully reconstructed from δ18 Oshell values assuming a δ18Owater signature that was extrapolated from coeval sirenian tooth enamel. Extreme values ranged between 12.3 and 22.0°C and agree well with previous estimates based on planktonic foraminifera and shark teeth. However, summer and winter temperatures varied greatly on inter-annual time-scales. Winter and summer temperatures averaged over 40 annual increments of three specimens equaled 13.6 ± 0.8°C and 17.3 ± 1.2°C, respectively. Unless many samples are analyzed, this variability is hardly seen in foraminiferan tests. Our data also revealed decadal-scale oscillations of seasonal extremes which have - in the absence of appropriate climate archives - never been identified before for the Oligocene. This information can be highly relevant for numerical climate studies aiming to predict possible future climates in a unipolar glaciated or, ultimately, polar ice-free world.

Cuticular waxes in alpine meadow plants: climate effect inferred from latitude gradient in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Guo, Yanjun; Guo, Na; He, Yuji; Gao, Jianhua

2015-09-01

Alpine meadow ecosystems are susceptible to climate changes. Still, climate impact on cuticular wax in alpine meadow plants is poorly understood. Assessing the variations of cuticular wax in alpine meadow plants across different latitudes might be useful for predicting how they may respond to climate change. We studied nine alpine meadows in a climate gradient in the east side of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, with mean annual temperature ranging from -7.7 to 3.2°C. In total, 42 plant species were analyzed for cuticular wax, averaged 16 plant species in each meadow. Only four plant species could be observed in all sampling meadows, including Kobresia humilis,Potentilla nivea,Anaphalis lacteal, and Leontopodium nanum. The amounts of wax compositions and total cuticular wax in the four plant species varied among sampling meadows, but no significant correlation could be observed between them and temperature, precipitation, and aridity index based on plant species level. To analyze the variations of cuticular wax on community level, we averaged the amounts of n-alkanes, aliphatic acids, primary alcohols, and total cuticular wax across all investigated plant species in each sampling site. The mean annual temperature, mean temperature in July, and aridity index were significantly correlated with the averaged amounts of wax compositions and total cuticular wax. The average chain length of n-alkanes in both plant and soil linearly increased with increased temperature, whereas reduced with increased aridity index. No significant correlation could be observed between mean annual precipitation and mean precipitation from June to August and the cuticular wax amounts and average chain length. Our results suggest that the survival of some alpine plants in specific environments might be depended on their abilities in adjusting wax deposition on plant leaves, and the alpine meadow plants as a whole respond to climate change, benefiting the stability of alpine meadow ecosystem.

Growth rate variation and potential paleoceanographic proxies in Primnoa pacifica: Insights from high-resolution trace element microanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aranha, Renita; Edinger, Evan; Layne, Graham; Piercey, Glenn

2014-01-01

Red tree coral, Primnoa pacifica, is one of the more common habitat-forming deep-sea gorgonian corals in the northeast Pacific Ocean, growing in colonies up to 2 m high and living for decades to hundreds of years. Growth characteristics of P. pacifica were studied in Dixon Entrance, northern British Columbia, and the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary, Washington State, USA, based on samples collected in July 2008. To minimize the impact of scientific sampling on coral populations, only dead coral skeletons and dislodged live corals were collected. Ages and growth rates were measured using band counts, and checked against AMS-14C ages of gorgonin rings. Ba/Ca, Mg/Ca, Na/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios in the calcite cortex were measured using radial Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometer (SIMS) transects with a spot size of <20 μm and separation distance of 25 μm. Growth banding was consistent in width between the central mixed zone consisting of calcite and gorgonin and the dominantly calcite cortex. Average annual radial growth rate of the nine corals analysed ranged from 0.23 to 0.58 mm/yr, with an average growth rate of 0.32 mm/yr in Dixon Entrance and 0.36 m/yr in OCNMS. These growth rates are slightly higher than P. pacifica growth rates from the Gulf of Alaska, and more than four times the growth rates of sister species Primnoa resedaeformis in the northwest Atlantic. Primary productivity is likely a more important driver of geographic variation in Primnoa growth rates than temperature or current strength. Both Dixon Entrance and OCNMS are areas with high primary productivity and strong tidal currents. Lack of post-Atomic Bomb radiocarbon in all but one of the gorgonin samples, and long radiocarbon reservoir ages in the Northeast Pacific, made radiocarbon-based verification of coral ages and growth rates difficult due to wide errors in calibrated age estimates. Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios were inversely correlated in two of the three corals analyzed, and showed evidence of interannual variation. Mg/Ca ratios ranged from 70 to 136 mmol mol-1, and Sr/Ca ratios from 2.041 to 3.14 mmol mol-1. Previously published relationships between gorgonian calcite Mg/Ca and seawater temperature yielded average temperatures matching ambient measurements, but the intra- and inter-annual variation in apparent temperature based on the Mg/Ca ratios was more than double the observed variation in modern seawater temperature ranges in the region. Annual variation in Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca could be related to seasonal changes in precipitation efficiency, which is likely a function of short-term fluctuations in coral growth rate, in turn related to variation in primary productivity. Seasonal and interannual variations in food availability, driven by primary productivity, may affect skeletal growth rate, hence Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios. Primnoid coral skeletal microgeochemistry probably records temporal changes in both temperature and primary productivity.

Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations in Carbon Dioxide Exchange over an Alpine Grassland in the Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Shang, Lunyu; Zhang, Yu; Lyu, Shihua; Wang, Shaoying

2016-01-01

This work analyzed carbon dioxide exchange and its controlling factors over an alpine grassland on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The main results show that air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation are two dominant factors controlling daily gross primary production. Soil temperature and soil water content are the main factors controlling ecosystem respiration. Canopy photosynthetic activity is also responsible for the variation of daily ecosystem respiration other than environmental factors. No clear correlation between net ecosystem exchange and environmental factors was observed at daily scale. Temperature sensitive coefficient was observed to increase with larger soil water content. High values of temperature sensitive coefficient occurred during the periods when soil water content was high and grass was active. Annual integrated net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production and ecosystem respiration were -191, 1145 and 954 g C m-2 for 2010, and -250, 975 and 725 g C m-2 for 2011, respectively. Thus, this alpine grassland was a moderate carbon sink in both of the two years. Compared to alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, this alpine grassland demonstrated a much greater potential for carbon sequestration than others. Annual precipitation is a dominant factor controlling the variation of annual net ecosystem exchange over this grassland. The difference in gross primary production between the two years was not caused by the variation in annual precipitation. Instead, air temperature and the length of growing season had an important impact on annual gross primary production. Variation of annual ecosystem respiration was closely related to annual gross primary production and soil water content during the growing season.

Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations in Carbon Dioxide Exchange over an Alpine Grassland in the Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Shang, Lunyu; Zhang, Yu; Lyu, Shihua; Wang, Shaoying

2016-01-01

This work analyzed carbon dioxide exchange and its controlling factors over an alpine grassland on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The main results show that air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation are two dominant factors controlling daily gross primary production. Soil temperature and soil water content are the main factors controlling ecosystem respiration. Canopy photosynthetic activity is also responsible for the variation of daily ecosystem respiration other than environmental factors. No clear correlation between net ecosystem exchange and environmental factors was observed at daily scale. Temperature sensitive coefficient was observed to increase with larger soil water content. High values of temperature sensitive coefficient occurred during the periods when soil water content was high and grass was active. Annual integrated net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production and ecosystem respiration were -191, 1145 and 954 g C m-2 for 2010, and -250, 975 and 725 g C m-2 for 2011, respectively. Thus, this alpine grassland was a moderate carbon sink in both of the two years. Compared to alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, this alpine grassland demonstrated a much greater potential for carbon sequestration than others. Annual precipitation is a dominant factor controlling the variation of annual net ecosystem exchange over this grassland. The difference in gross primary production between the two years was not caused by the variation in annual precipitation. Instead, air temperature and the length of growing season had an important impact on annual gross primary production. Variation of annual ecosystem respiration was closely related to annual gross primary production and soil water content during the growing season. PMID:27861616

Spatial-temporal changes of maximum and minimum temperatures in the Wei River Basin, China: Changing patterns, causes and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Saiyan; Huang, Shengzhi; Xie, Yangyang; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong; Hou, Beibei; Zhang, Ying; Wei, Xiu

2018-05-01

Due to the important role of temperature in the global climate system and energy cycles, it is important to investigate the spatial-temporal change patterns, causes and implications of annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. In this study, the Cloud model were adopted to fully and accurately analyze the changing patterns of annual Tmax and Tmin from 1958 to 2008 by quantifying their mean, uniformity, and stability in the Wei River Basin (WRB), a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. Additionally, the cross wavelet analysis was applied to explore the correlations among annual Tmax and Tmin and the yearly sunspots number, Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and soil moisture with an aim to determine possible causes of annual Tmax and Tmin variations. Furthermore, temperature-related impacts on vegetation cover and precipitation extremes were also examined. Results indicated that: (1) the WRB is characterized by increasing trends in annual Tmax and Tmin, with a more evident increasing trend in annual Tmin, which has a higher dispersion degree and is less uniform and stable than annual Tmax; (2) the asymmetric variations of Tmax and Tmin can be generally explained by the stronger effects of solar activity (primarily), large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, and soil moisture on annual Tmin than on annual Tmax; and (3) increasing annual Tmax and Tmin have exerted strong influences on local precipitation extremes, in terms of their duration, intensity, and frequency in the WRB. This study presents new analyses of Tmax and Tmin in the WRB, and the findings may help guide regional agricultural production and water resources management.

Impacts of climate warming on the frozen ground and eco-hydrology in the Yellow River source region, China.

PubMed

Qin, Yue; Yang, Dawen; Gao, Bing; Wang, Taihua; Chen, Jinsong; Chen, Yun; Wang, Yuhan; Zheng, Guanheng

2017-12-15

The Yellow River source region is located in the transition region between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The region has experienced severe climate change, especially air temperature increases, in past decades. In this study, we employed a geomorphology-based eco-hydrological model (GBEHM) to assess the impacts of climate change on the frozen ground and eco-hydrological processes in the region. Based on a long-term simulation from 1981 to 2015, we found that the areal mean maximum thickness of seasonally frozen ground ranged from 1.1-1.8m and decreased by 1.2cm per year. Additionally, the ratio of the permafrost area to the total area decreased by 1.1% per year. These decreasing trends are faster than the average in China because the study area is on the sensitive margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The annual runoff exhibited variations similar to those of the annual precipitation (R 2 =0.85), although the annual evapotranspiration (ET) exhibited an increasing trend (14.3mm/10a) similar to that of the annual mean air temperature (0.66°C/10a). The runoff coefficient (annual runoff divided by annual precipitation) displayed a decreasing trend because of the increasing ET, and the vegetation responses to climate warming and permafrost degradation were manifested as increases in the leaf area index (LAI) and ET at the start of the growing season. Furthermore, the results showed that changes to the frozen ground depth affected vegetation growth. Notably, a rapid decrease in the frozen ground depth (< -3.0cm/a) decreased the topsoil moisture and then decreased the LAI. This study showed that the eco-hydrological processes in the headwater area of the Yellow River have changed because of permafrost degradation, and these changes could further influence the water resources availability in the middle and lower reaches of the basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.

2010-08-01

As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010.

PubMed

Mauck, Robert A; Dearborn, Donald C; Huntington, Charles E

2018-04-01

The salient feature of anthropogenic climate change over the last century has been the rise in global mean temperature. However, global mean temperature is not used as an explanatory variable in studies of population-level response to climate change, perhaps because the signal-to-noise ratio of this gross measure makes its effect difficult to detect in any but the longest of datasets. Using a population of Leach's storm-petrels breeding in the Bay of Fundy, we tested whether local, regional, or global temperature measures are the best index of reproductive success in the face of climate change in species that travel widely between and within seasons. With a 56-year dataset, we found that annual global mean temperature (AGMT) was the single most important predictor of hatching success, more so than regional sea surface temperatures (breeding season or winter) and local air temperatures at the nesting colony. Storm-petrel reproductive success showed a quadratic response to rising temperatures, in that hatching success increased up to some critical temperature, and then declined when AGMT exceeded that temperature. The year at which AGMT began to consistently exceed that critical temperature was 1988. Importantly, in this population of known-age individuals, the impact of changing climate was greatest on inexperienced breeders: reproductive success of inexperienced birds increased more rapidly as temperatures rose and declined more rapidly after the tipping point than did reproductive success of experienced individuals. The generality of our finding that AGMT is the best predictor of reproductive success in this system may hinge on two things. First, an integrative global measure may be best for species in which individuals move across an enormous spatial range, especially within seasons. Second, the length of our dataset and our capacity to account for individual- and age-based variation in reproductive success increase our ability to detect a noisy signal. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, Christian; Zaehle, Sönke; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin

2018-04-01

The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as inter-annual climate sensitivity. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.

European Temperature Variability and Climate Forcing Over The Last 500 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luterbacher, J.; Wanner, H.; Dietrich, D.; Friedli, T. K.

We present seasonal temperature reconstructions back to 1500 for the European land areas (30W-40E; 35N-70N) on a dense 0.5x0.5 latitude by longitude grid. The reconstructions were developed using PC regression analysis based on the combina- tion of early instrumental station series of temperature and pressure and proxy data from Eurasian sites. The statistical relationships were derived over the 1901-1995 in- strumental period (New et al. 2000) and applied to the pre-1900 data. The reliability of the reconstruction and the time-dependent uncertainty ranges about the estimates are discussed. We derived a high precision winter (DJF), summer (JJA) and annual (J-D) mean Eu- ropean temperature time series from 1500-1998 through averaging of all the 5100 land gridpoints. We found several cold relapses and warm intervals on the decadal timescale, on which shorter-period quasi-oscillatory behaviour was superimposed. Warmer European winters were experienced in the first third of the 16th century, at the beginning of the 17th century and generally in the 20th century. The warmest decade was 1989-1998. Cooler winter conditions were found in the second part of the 16th century, during the Maunder Minimum and in most parts of the 19th century. The coldest decades in winter temperatures were 1586-1595 and the 1690s with 1.5C lower values compared to the 1961-1990 mean. Warm summers were observed from around 1530 to 1570, from the 1750s to the early 19th century, around 1950 and at the end of the 20th century. 1789-1798 and the 1990s were the warmest decades in summer temperatures. Cooler summer periods were prevalent from the 1570s to the beginning of the 17th century, in the middle of the 18th century and at the turn of the 20th century. The summers from 1902-1916 were among the coldest over the last 500 years. The low pass filtered timeseries of the annually averaged temperatures from 1500- 1950 were mainly below the 1961-1990 average. The yearly mean European tempera- ture are partly in agreement with Northern Hemispheric temperature variations (Mann et al. 1998). Finally, the statistical relationship between European annual temperature and recent estimates of climate forcing time series (Robertson et al. 2001) are presented.

A multiple wavelet coherency method for temporal streamflow-precipitation-temperature relationships in 17 small catchments on the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Liu, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change and human activities are two critical factors causing the dramatical variations of streamflow in the Yellow River Basin of China during the last several decades. More and more attention has been paid to the temporal relationships of streamflow with precipitation and temperature recently. The objective of the current study was to explore the contributions of precipitation and temperature to the temporal variations of streamflow on the Loess Plateau using a multiple wavelet coherency method. Annual streamflow during 1961-2013 for 17 small catchments were collected from the Yellow River Conservancy Commission and annual precipitation and temperature for each catchment were derived from the meteorological data at the national weather stations across the Loess Plateau through the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. An abrupt decrease was observed in the annual streamflow around year 2000 for any of the 17 catchments investigated, which was believed to be related with the extensive Grain for Green Project. According to bivariate wavelet coherences, however, annual streamflow showed strong temporal variations with annual precipitation at 8 out of the 17 catchments, where the percentage area of significant coherency (PASC) exceeded 50%. Especially in Weihe and Yiluohe catchments, the corresponding PASC were close to 100%, suggesting that annual precipitation change accounted for almost all the temporal streamflow variations. Compared to annual precipitation, the temporal correlation of temperature with streamflow was relatively small, as implied in the lower mean wavelet coherence (MWC) and PASC. Moreover, including temperature in addition to precipitation in the multiple wavelet coherency analysis failed to increase either MWC or PASC in any of the 17 catchments except for Qingjianhe and Qiushuihe catchments. It was indicated that for most catchments on the Loess Plateau, annual temperature was not significantly different from the red noise in explaining the additional variation in streamflow. In view of the small PASC values resulted for most catchments, there existed other environmental and/or anthropogenic factors responsible for the temporal variations of streamflow.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen M; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, V Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2% resolution. Local duration in limited areas of temperature-humidity weather-space identifies potential locations, timing, and magnitude of transmission. The weather-space profile of transmission-potential provides needed data that define a systematic and highly-sensitive weather-disease connection, demonstrating separate but coupled roles of temperature and humidity. New insights regarding natural regulation of human-mosquito transmission across diverse ecological settings advance our understanding of risk locally and globally for dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases and support advances in public health policy/operations, providing an evidence-base for modeling, predicting risk, and surveillance-prevention planning.

Climate patterns as predictors of amphibians species richness and indicators of potential stress

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, W.; Hay, L.; McCabe, G.; Nanjappa, P.; Gallant, Alisa L.

2005-01-01

Amphibians occupy a range of habitats throughout the world, but species richness is greatest in regions with moist, warm climates. We modeled the statistical relations of anuran and urodele species richness with mean annual climate for the conterminous United States, and compared the strength of these relations at national and regional levels. Model variables were calculated for county and subcounty mapping units, and included 40-year (1960-1999) annual mean and mean annual climate statistics, mapping unit average elevation, mapping unit land area, and estimates of anuran and urodele species richness. Climate data were derived from more than 7,500 first-order and cooperative meteorological stations and were interpolated to the mapping units using multiple linear regression models. Anuran and urodele species richness were calculated from the United States Geological Survey's Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) National Atlas for Amphibian Distributions. The national multivariate linear regression (MLR) model of anuran species richness had an adjusted coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.64 and the national MLR model for urodele species richness had an R2 value of 0.45. Stratifying the United States by coarse-resolution ecological regions provided models for anUrans that ranged in R2 values from 0.15 to 0.78. Regional models for urodeles had R2 values. ranging from 0.27 to 0.74. In general, regional models for anurans were more strongly influenced by temperature variables, whereas precipitation variables had a larger influence on urodele models.

Annual variation in the timing of coral spawning in a high-latitude environment: influence of temperature.

PubMed

Nozawa, Yoko

2012-06-01

This study was conducted at a high-latitude location (32°N; Kochi, Japan), where annual seawater temperatures show large fluctuations due to the meandering of the Kuroshio Current, providing a unique opportunity to examine the influence of temperature on coral reproduction. Annual spawning of individual colonies of four reef coral species-two Acropora species (Acropora hyacinthus and A. japonica) and two faviid species (Favites pentagona and Platygyra contorta)-was monitored in situ for 4 years in 2006-2009. The spawning of the four species always occurred around the last quarter moon in the local summer, July or August, irrespective of high annual variations in seawater temperatures (from 23.7 to 29.5 °C) and weather during the spawning period. However, the exact timing of spawning during the spawning period varied among the years and was correlated with the cumulative seawater temperature during the late period of gametogenesis (0-3 months before spawning). When seawater temperatures were higher, spawning occurred in the earlier spawning month (July) and vice versa, except in A. hyacinthus, which always spawned in July. In the case of the two Acropora species, higher (lower) temperatures led to spawning earlier (later) in the lunar cycle. Seawater temperature may have an influence on gametogenesis, causing the shift in spawning timing.

An Atmospheric Tape Recorder: The Imprint of Tropical Tropopause Temperatures on Stratospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mote, Philip W.; Rosenlof, Karen H.; McIntyre, Michael E.; Carr, Ewan S.; Gille, John C.; Holton, James R.; Kinnersley, Jonathan S.; Pumphrey, Hugh C.; Russell, James M., III; Waters, Joe W.

1996-01-01

We describe observations of tropical stratospheric water vapor q that show clear evidence of large-scale upward advection of the signal from annual fluctuations in the effective 'entry mixing ratio' q(sub E) of air entering the tropical stratosphere. In other words, air is 'marked,' on emergence above the highest cloud tops, like a signal recorded on an upward moving magnetic tape. We define q(sub E) as the mean water vapor mixing ratio, at the tropical tropopause, of air that will subsequently rise and enter the stratospheric 'overworld' at about 400 K. The observations show a systematic phase lag, increasing with altitude, between the annual cycle in q(sub E) and the annual cycle in q at higher altitudes. The observed phase lag agrees with the phase lag calculated assuming advection by the transformed Eulerian-mean vertical velocity of a q(sub E) crudely estimated from 100-hPa temperatures, which we use as a convenient proxy for tropopause temperatures. The phase agreement confirms the overall robustness of the calculation and strongly supports the tape recorder hypothesis. Establishing a quantitative link between q(sub E) and observed tropopause temperatures, however, proves difficult because the process of marking the tape depends subtly on both small- and large-scale processes. The tape speed, or large-scale upward advection speed, has a substantial annual variation and a smaller variation due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, which delays or accelerates the arrival of the signal by a month or two in the middle stratosphere. As the tape moves upward, the signal is attenuated with an e-folding time of about 7 to 9 months between 100 and 50 hPa and about 15 to 18 months between 50 and 20 hPa, constraining possible orders of magnitude both of vertical diffusion K(sub z) and of rates of mixing in from the extratropics. For instance, if there were no mixing in, then K(sub z) would be in the range 0.03-0.09 m(exp 2)/s; this is an upper bound on K(sub z).

The reproductive strategies of the heterocarpic annual Calendula arvensis (Asteraceae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz De Clavijo, E.

2005-09-01

Achene polymorphism and various aspects of the reproductive biology of the annual Calendula arvensis L. (Field marigold), were studied to determine the reproductive strategies of the plant. This species normally produces three types of achene: rostrate, cymbiform and annular. Rostrate and cymbiform achenes are larger and heavier than annular achenes, and are adapted to long-range dispersal (by epizoochory and anemochory, respectively). In contrast, annular achenes are smaller in size and weight, and are adapted to short-range dispersal. Achenes germinate over a broad range of temperatures (both in light and in darkness), exhibiting cymbiform achenes the highest germination percentages and annular achenes the lowest under all conditions tested. A fraction of the three types of achenes exhibit dormancy and presumably enter the soil seedbank. Achene types adapted for long-range dispersal (rostrate and cymbiform achenes) produce seedlings that are best able to emerge from deeper burial depths, and that are initially stronger and exhibit earlier flowering than the plants from the annular achenes (which are likely to disperse over shorter distances). These features, together with the fact that fruiting occurs even in the absence of pollinators (automatic geitonogamy), the different mechanisms for achene dispersal (zoochory, anemochory and myrmerochory), and the extended germination, flowering and fruiting periods, facilitate establishment and expansion of this species in unpredictable and disturbed habitats.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacoby, G.C.; D`Arrigo, R.D.; Davaajamts, T.

A 450-year tree-ring width chronology of Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) growing at timberline (2450 meters) in the Tarvagatay Mountains in west central Mongolia shows wide annual growth rings for the recent century. Ecological site observations and comparisons with instrumental temperature records indicate that the ring widths of these trees are sensitive to annual temperature variations. Low-frequency variations in the Tarvagatay tree-ring record are similar to those in a reconstruction of Arctic annual temperatures, which is based on 20 tree-ring width series from northern North America, Scandinavia, and western Russia. The results indicate that recent warming is unusual relativemore » to temperatures of the past 450 years. 29 refs., 2 figs.« less

Net ecosystem carbon exchange of a dry temperate eucalypt forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinko-Najera, Nina; Isaac, Peter; Beringer, Jason; van Gorsel, Eva; Ewenz, Cacilia; McHugh, Ian; Exbrayat, Jean-François; Livesley, Stephen J.; Arndt, Stefan K.

2017-08-01

Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle by sequestering a considerable fraction of anthropogenic CO2, thereby contributing to climate change mitigation. However, there is a gap in our understanding about the carbon dynamics of eucalypt (broadleaf evergreen) forests in temperate climates, which might differ from temperate evergreen coniferous or deciduous broadleaved forests given their fundamental differences in physiology, phenology and growth dynamics. To address this gap we undertook a 3-year study (2010-2012) of eddy covariance measurements in a dry temperate eucalypt forest in southeastern Australia. We determined the annual net carbon balance and investigated the temporal (seasonal and inter-annual) variability in and environmental controls of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). The forest was a large and constant carbon sink throughout the study period, even in winter, with an overall mean NEE of -1234 ± 109 (SE) g C m-2 yr-1. Estimated annual ER was similar for 2010 and 2011 but decreased in 2012 ranging from 1603 to 1346 g C m-2 yr-1, whereas GPP showed no significant inter-annual variability, with a mean annual estimate of 2728 ± 39 g C m-2 yr-1. All ecosystem carbon fluxes had a pronounced seasonality, with GPP being greatest during spring and summer and ER being highest during summer, whereas peaks in NEE occurred in early spring and again in summer. High NEE in spring was likely caused by a delayed increase in ER due to low temperatures. A strong seasonal pattern in environmental controls of daytime and night-time NEE was revealed. Daytime NEE was equally explained by incoming solar radiation and air temperature, whereas air temperature was the main environmental driver of night-time NEE. The forest experienced unusual above-average annual rainfall during the first 2 years of this 3-year period so that soil water content remained relatively high and the forest was not water limited. Our results show the potential of temperate eucalypt forests to sequester large amounts of carbon when not water limited. However, further studies using bottom-up approaches are needed to validate measurements from the eddy covariance flux tower and to account for a possible underestimation in ER due to advection fluxes.

On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.; Kam, Jonghun; Dunne, Krista A.

2018-01-01

Although interannual streamflow variability is primarily a result of precipitation variability, temperature also plays a role. The relative weakness of the temperature effect at the annual time scale hinders understanding, but may belie substantial importance on climatic time scales. Here we develop and evaluate a simple theory relating variations of streamflow and evapotranspiration (E) to those of precipitation (P) and temperature. The theory is based on extensions of the Budyko water‐balance hypothesis, the Priestley‐Taylor theory for potential evapotranspiration ( ), and a linear model of interannual basin storage. The theory implies that the temperature affects streamflow by modifying evapotranspiration through a Clausius‐Clapeyron‐like relation and through the sensitivity of net radiation to temperature. We apply and test (1) a previously introduced “strong” extension of the Budyko hypothesis, which requires that the function linking temporal variations of the evapotranspiration ratio (E/P) and the index of dryness ( /P) at an annual time scale is identical to that linking interbasin variations of the corresponding long‐term means, and (2) a “weak” extension, which requires only that the annual evapotranspiration ratio depends uniquely on the annual index of dryness, and that the form of that dependence need not be known a priori nor be identical across basins. In application of the weak extension, the readily observed sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation contains crucial information about the sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration and, thence, to temperature. Implementation of the strong extension is problematic, whereas the weak extension appears to capture essential controls of the temperature effect efficiently.

Unidirectional trends in annual and seasonal climate and extremes in Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nashwan, Mohamed Salem; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Abd Rahim, Norhan

2018-05-01

The presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations can lead to considerable change in significance of trend in hydro-climatic time series. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider autocorrelations became a questionable issue. The spatial patterns in the trends of annual and seasonal temperature, rainfall, and related extremes in Egypt have been assessed in this paper using modified Mann-Kendal (MMK) trend test which can detect unidirectional trends in time series in the presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations. The trends obtained using the MMK test was compared with that obtained using standard Mann-Kendall (MK) test to show how natural variability in climate affects the trends. The daily rainfall and temperature data of Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing for the period 1948-2010 having a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° was used for this purpose. The results showed a large difference between the trends obtained using MMK and MK tests. The MMK test showed increasing trends in temperature and a number of temperature extremes in Egypt, but almost no change in rainfall and rainfall extremes. The minimum temperature was found to increase (0.08-0.29 °C/decade) much faster compared to maximum temperature (0.07-0.24 °C/decade) and therefore, a decrease in diurnal temperature range (- 0.01 to - 0.16 °C/decade) in most part of Egypt. The number of winter hot days and nights are increasing, while the number of cold days is decreasing in most part of the country. The study provides a more realistic scenario of the changes in climate and weather extremes of Egypt.

Gaseous oxidized mercury dry deposition measurements in the southwestern USA: a comparison between Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and the Four Corners area.

PubMed

Sather, Mark E; Mukerjee, Shaibal; Allen, Kara L; Smith, Luther; Mathew, Johnson; Jackson, Clarence; Callison, Ryan; Scrapper, Larry; Hathcoat, April; Adam, Jacque; Keese, Danielle; Ketcher, Philip; Brunette, Robert; Karlstrom, Jason; Van der Jagt, Gerard

2014-01-01

Gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) dry deposition measurements using aerodynamic surrogate surface passive samplers were collected in central and eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma, from September 2011 to September 2012. The purpose of this study was to provide an initial characterization of the magnitude and spatial extent of ambient GOM dry deposition in central and eastern Texas for a 12-month period which contained statistically average annual results for precipitation totals, temperature, and wind speed. The research objective was to investigate GOM dry deposition in areas of Texas impacted by emissions from coal-fired utility boilers and compare it with GOM dry deposition measurements previously observed in eastern Oklahoma and the Four Corners area. Annual GOM dry deposition rate estimates were relatively low in Texas, ranging from 0.1 to 0.3 ng/m(2)h at the four Texas monitoring sites, similar to the 0.2 ng/m(2)h annual GOM dry deposition rate estimate recorded at the eastern Oklahoma monitoring site. The Texas and eastern Oklahoma annual GOM dry deposition rate estimates were at least four times lower than the highest annual GOM dry deposition rate estimate previously measured in the more arid bordering western states of New Mexico and Colorado in the Four Corners area.

Nitrogen Cycling and Bacterial Diversity in Hot and Cold Desert Stream Margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeglin, L. H.; Vesbach, C. D.; Dahm, C. N.; Barrett, J. E.; Gooseff, M. N.

2006-12-01

Desert environments offer harsh conditions for life. By definition, water is an extremely limiting resource in any desert. Also, the range of temperatures with which desert life must cope is extreme. Finally, essential nutrients like nitrogen (N) are available in very low amounts relative to temperate environments. Thus, desert organisms are subject to severe stresses like desiccation, temperature stress and starvation. Here, we review the N biogeochemistry of two desert stream systems: the Onyx River, Wright Valley, Victoria Land, Antarctica and the Rio Salado, Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA. Annually, the Antarctic system receives <100 mm precipitation and is subject to mean temperature ranges of -30 to -15 C. The Rio Salado, in the northern Chihuahuan desert, receives an average of 250 mm precipitation per year and experiences average temperatures from 1.5 to 25 C. The most important sources and sinks of the major forms of N at these sites are contrasted and biogeochemical processes controlling these pools discussed. Nutrient gradients and bacterial diversity patterns in the parafluvial zone of these streams are used to illustrate relationships between biological diversity, environmental stress and N biogeochemistry in the hot and cold desert systems.

Interannual Variability in Global Soil Respiration on a 0.5 Degree Grid Cell Basis (1980-1994)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raich, J.W.

2003-09-15

We used a climate-driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil-to-atmosphere CO{sub 2} fluxes. The mean annual global soil-CO{sub 2} flux over this 15-y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3-81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil-CO{sub 2} emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil-CO{sub 2} emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreenmore » broad-leaved forests contributed more soil-derived CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type ({approx}30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil-CO{sub 2} emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil-CO{sub 2} production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands, and deserts), interannual variability in soil-CO{sub 2} emissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil-CO{sub 2} fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 PgCY{sup -1} per degree Celsius. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO{sub 2} emissions from soils.« less

Seasonal Changes in Serum Thyrotropin Concentrations Observed from Big Data Obtained During Six Consecutive Years from 2010 to 2015 at a Single Hospital in Japan.

PubMed

Yoshihara, Ai; Noh, Jaeduk Yoshimura; Watanabe, Natsuko; Iwaku, Kenji; Kunii, Yo; Ohye, Hidemi; Suzuki, Miho; Matsumoto, Masako; Suzuki, Nami; Sugino, Kiminori; Thienpont, Linda M; Hishinuma, Akira; Ito, Koichi

2018-04-01

This study analyzed big data for serum thyrotropin (TSH), free triiodothyronine (fT3), and free thyroxine (fT4) concentrations in patients who had attended the outpatient clinic of Ito Hospital (Tokyo, Japan) during a recent six-year period (between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2015) in order to investigate for seasonal changes. The serum TSH concentrations were reviewed for all 135,417 patients aged >20 years. Patients with any thyroid diseases were included, irrespective of whether they were receiving drug therapy. In total 1,637,721 serum samples were analyzed for TSH, 1,626,269 for fT3, and 1,669,381 for fT4. It was observed that the TSH concentrations showed annual changes during the six-year period. They decreased during the summer, while they increased during the winter. The TSH concentrations were negatively correlated with the daily temperatures (Spearman rank correlation coefficient -0.4486; p < 0.0001). The same applied for the correlation between fT3 concentrations and daily temperatures. The fact that the TSH concentrations show annual changes in areas where the temperature ranges during the year are rather wide should be borne in mind for interpretation of results.

The seasonal effect in one-dimensional Daisyworld.

PubMed

Biton, Eli; Gildor, Hezi

2012-12-07

We have studied the effects of seasonal Solar Radiation Forcing (SRF) on the climate self-regulatory capability of life, using a latitudinal-dependent Daisyworld model. Because the seasonal polarity of SRF increases poleward, habitable conditions exist in the equatorial regions year round, whereas, in the high latitudes, harsh winters cause annual extinction of life, and only the summers are inhabited or regulated by life. Seasonality affects climate regulation by two major mechanisms: (1) the cold winter conditions in the high latitudes reduce the global temperature below the optimal temperature; (2) during summer, life experiences higher SRF anomalies and, therefore, shifts to higher albedo when compared to annual mean SRF. In turn, a full capacity for temperature regulation is reached at lower SRF, and the range of SRF over which life regulates climate is significantly reduced. Lastly, initiation/extinction of life at low/highly-perturbed SRF occurs at the poles. Therefore, an irreversible global extinction occurs once life passes its regulatory capacity in the poles. We conduct extensive sensitivity analyses on various model parameters (latitudinal heat diffusion, heat capacity, and population death rate), strengthening the generality/robustness of the above net seasonal effects. Applications to other SRF fluctuation, as Milankovitch cycles are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vertical structure of atmospheric boundary layer over Ranchi during the summer monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Sagarika; Srivastava, Nishi; Kumar, Manoj

2018-04-01

Thermodynamic structure and variability in the atmospheric boundary layer have been investigated with the help of balloon-borne GPS radiosonde over a monsoon trough station Ranchi (Lat. 23°45'N, Long. 85°43'E, India) during the summer monsoon season (June-September) for a period of 2011-2013. Virtual potential temperature gradient method is used for the determination of mixed layer height (MLH). The MLH has been found to vary in the range of 1000-1300 m during the onset, 600-900 m during the active and 1400-1750 m during the break phase of monsoon over this region. Inter-annual variations noticed in MLH could be associated with inter-annual variability in convection and rainfall prevailing over the region. Along with the MLH, the cloud layer heights are also derived from the thermodynamic profiles for the onset, active and break phases of monsoon. Cloud layer height varied a lot during different phases of the monsoon. For the determination of boundary-layer convection, thermodynamic parameter difference (δθ = θ es- θ e) between saturated equivalent potential temperature (θ es ) and equivalent potential temperature (θ e) is used. It is a good indicator of convection and indicates the intense and suppressed convection during different phases of monsoon.

Multi-year behaviour of the midnight OH∗ temperature according to observations at Zvenigorod over 2000-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perminov, V. I.; Semenov, A. I.; Pertsev, N. N.; Medvedeva, I. V.; Dalin, P. A.; Sukhodoev, V. A.

2018-04-01

Using spectral measurements of the hydroxyl airglow at the Zvenigorod station (56° N, 37° E), Moscow region, over 2000-2016, we obtained the long-term set of data comprising 1822 midnight values of the OH∗ temperature in the mesopause region. These data revealed a 17-year series of its mean annual values, as well as amplitudes and phases of the first two harmonics of its annual variation. The obtained parameters were analyzed to determine statistically relevant characteristics of their long-term variations. As a result, we found that the long-term behaviour of the mean annual OH∗ temperature features a small negative linear trend (-0.07 ± 0.03 K/year) over the addressed period. Besides, its dependence on solar activity is shown to be 4.1 ± 0.5 K/100 SFU. Regarding the long-term behaviour of the mean annual OH∗ temperature, we revealed the existence of two oscillations with 3-year (the amplitude being 1.3 ± 0.2 K) and 4.1-year (the amplitude being 0.6 ± 0.2 K) periods. We obtained empirical relations describing year-to-year variations in the amplitudes and phases of the annual and semi-annual harmonics.

Latitude, temperature, and habitat complexity predict predation pressure in eelgrass beds across the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Reynolds, Pamela L; Stachowicz, John J; Hovel, Kevin; Boström, Christoffer; Boyer, Katharyn; Cusson, Mathieu; Eklöf, Johan S; Engel, Friederike G; Engelen, Aschwin H; Eriksson, Britas Klemens; Fodrie, F Joel; Griffin, John N; Hereu, Clara M; Hori, Masakazu; Hanley, Torrance C; Ivanov, Mikhail; Jorgensen, Pablo; Kruschel, Claudia; Lee, Kun-Seop; McGlathery, Karen; Moksnes, Per-Olav; Nakaoka, Masahiro; O'Connor, Mary I; O'Connor, Nessa E; Orth, Robert J; Rossi, Francesca; Ruesink, Jennifer; Sotka, Erik E; Thormar, Jonas; Tomas, Fiona; Unsworth, Richard K F; Whalen, Matthew A; Duffy, J Emmett

2018-01-01

Latitudinal gradients in species interactions are widely cited as potential causes or consequences of global patterns of biodiversity. However, mechanistic studies documenting changes in interactions across broad geographic ranges are limited. We surveyed predation intensity on common prey (live amphipods and gastropods) in communities of eelgrass (Zostera marina) at 48 sites across its Northern Hemisphere range, encompassing over 37° of latitude and four continental coastlines. Predation on amphipods declined with latitude on all coasts but declined more strongly along western ocean margins where temperature gradients are steeper. Whereas in situ water temperature at the time of the experiments was uncorrelated with predation, mean annual temperature strongly positively predicted predation, suggesting a more complex mechanism than simply increased metabolic activity at the time of predation. This large-scale biogeographic pattern was modified by local habitat characteristics; predation declined with higher shoot density both among and within sites. Predation rates on gastropods, by contrast, were uniformly low and varied little among sites. The high replication and geographic extent of our study not only provides additional evidence to support biogeographic variation in predation intensity, but also insight into the mechanisms that relate temperature and biogeographic gradients in species interactions. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA great plains: Part II. Temporal trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.

2016-11-01

Detection of long-term changes in climate variables over large spatial scales is a very important prerequisite to the development of effective mitigation and adaptation measures for the future potential climate change and for developing strategies for future hydrologic balance analyses under changing climate. Moreover, there is a need for effective approaches of providing information about these changes to decision makers, water managers and stakeholders to aid in efficient implementation of the developed strategies. This study involves computation, mapping and analyses of long-term (1968-2013) county-specific trends in annual, growing-season (1st May-30th September) and monthly air temperatures [(maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and average (Tavg)], daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) over the USA Great Plains region using datasets from over 800 weather station sites. Positive trends in annual Tavg, Tmax and Tmin, DTR, precipitation, ETo and AI were observed in 71%, 89%, 85%, 31%, 61%, 38% and 66% of the counties in the region, respectively, whereas these proportions were 48%, 89%, 62%, 20%, 57%, 28%, and 63%, respectively, for the growing-season averages of the same variables. On a regional average basis, the positive trends in growing-season Tavg, Tmax and Tmin, DTR, precipitation, ETo and AI were 0.18 °C decade-1, 0.19 °C decade-1, 0.17 °C decade-1, 0.09 °C decade-1, 1.12 mm yr-1, 0.4 mm yr-1 and 0.02 decade-1, respectively, and the negative trends were 0.21 °C decade-1, 0.06 °C decade-1, 0.09 °C decade-1, 0.22 °C decade-1, 1.16 mm yr-1, 0.76 mm yr-1 and 0.02 decade-1, respectively. The temporal trends were highly variable in space and were appropriately represented using monthly, annual and growing-season maps developed using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The long-term and spatial and temporal information and data for a large region provided in this study can be used to analyze county-level trends in important climatic/hydrologic variables in context of climate change, water resources, agricultural and natural resources response to climate change.

Information transfer across the scales of climate variability: The effect of the 7-8 year cycle on the annual and interannual scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Kravtsov, Sergey; Tsonis, Anastasios

2016-04-01

Complexity of the climate system stems not only from the fact that it is variable over a huge range of spatial and temporal scales, but also from the nonlinear character of the climate system that leads to interactions of dynamics across scales. The dynamical processes on large time scales influence variability on shorter time scales. This nonlinear phenomenon of cross-scale causal interactions can be observed due to the recently introduced methodology [1] which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited bandwidth, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. An information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality [2] uncovers causal influence and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of air temperature records from various European locations, a quasioscillatory phenomenon with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as the factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [3]. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) [2] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [3] N. Jajcay, J. Hlinka, S. Kravtsov, A. A. Tsonis, M. Palus, Time-scales of the European surface air temperature variability: The role of the 7-8 year cycle. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067325

The clumped isotope geothermometer in soil and paleosol carbonate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quade, J.; Eiler, J.; Daëron, M.; Achyuthan, H.

2013-03-01

We studied both modern soils and buried paleosols in order to understand the relationship of temperature (T°C(47)) estimated from clumped isotope compositions (Δ47) of soil carbonates to actual surface and burial temperatures. Carbonates from modern soils with differing rainfall seasonality were sampled from Arizona, Nevada, Tibet, Pakistan, and India. T°C(47) obtained from these soils shows that soil carbonate forms in the warmest months of the year, in the late morning to afternoon, and probably in response to intense soil dewatering. T°C(47) obtained from modern soil carbonate ranges from 10.8 to 39.5 °C. On average, T°C(47) exceeds mean annual temperature by 10-15 °C due to summertime bias in soil carbonate formation, and to summertime ground heating by incident solar radiation. Secondary controls on T°C(47) are soil depth and shading. Site mean annual air temperature (MAAT) across a broad range (0-30 °C) of site temperatures is highly correlated with T°C(47) from soils, following the equation: MAAT(°C)=1.20(T°C(47)0)-21.72(r2=0.92) where T°C(47)0 is the effective air temperature at the site estimated from T°C(47). The effective air temperature represents the air temperature required to account for the T°C(47) at each site, after consideration of variations in T°C(47) with soil depth and ground heating. The highly correlated relationship in this equation should now permit mean annual temperature in the past to be reconstructed from T°C(47) in paleosol carbonate, assuming one is studying paleosols that formed in environments generally similar in seasonality and ground cover to our calibration sites. T°C(47)0 decreases systematically with elevation gain in the Himalaya, following the equation: elevation(m)=-229(T°C(47)0)+9300(r2=0.95) Assuming that temperature varied similarly with elevation in the past, this equation can be used to reconstruct paleoelevation from clumped isotope analysis of ancient soil carbonates. We also measured T°C(47) from long sequences of deeply buried (⩽5 km) paleosol carbonate in the Himalayan foreland in order to evaluate potential diagenetic resetting of clumped isotope composition. We found that paleosol carbonate faithfully records plausible soil T°C(47) down to 2.5-4 km burial depth, or ˜90-125 °C. Deeper than this and above this temperature, T°C(47) in paleosol carbonate is reset to temperatures >40 °C. We observe ˜40 °C as the upper limit for T°C(47) in modern soils from soil depths >25 cm, and therefore that T°C(47) >40 °C obtained from ancient soil carbonate indicates substantially warmer climate regimes compared to the present, or non-primary temperatures produced by resetting during diagenesis. If representative, this limits the use of T°C(47) to reconstruct ancient surface temperature to modestly buried (<3-4 km) paleosol carbonates. Despite diagenetic resetting of Δ47 values, δ18O and δ13C values of the same deeply buried paleosol carbonate appear unaltered. We conclude that solid-state reordering or recrystallization of clumping of carbon and oxygen isotopes can occur in the absence of open-system exchange of paleosol carbonate with significant quantities of water or other phases.

Environmental control of U concentration and 234U/238U in speleothems at subannual resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, C.; Henderson, G. M.

2003-12-01

Trace element and isotope variability in speleothems encodes a range of information about the past environment, although its interpretation is often problematic. U concentration and isotopes have frequently been analysed in speleothems in order to provide chronology, but their use as environmental proxies in their own right has not been comprehensively investigated. In this study, we have investigated the environmental controls of U in a stalagmite from the Central Yangtze Valley in China. This stalagmite grew rapidly throughout the Holocone and contains visible annual layers about 300microns thick. Analysis of a portion of the stalagmite corresponding to the 1970s by electron probe, LA-ICP-MS, and by physical subsampling indicate clear annual cycles in Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, and Ba/Ca. The reasonably open cave structure and the correlation of Sr/Ca with Mg/Ca suggest that temperature exerts considerable control over these trace element variations. U/Ca also varies seasonally by up to 42 % and shows a clear anti-correlation with Mg/Ca (correlation coefficient -0.64). Based on the inverse relationship between U/Ca and temperature exhibited in other carbonates (e.g. corals) the speleothem U/Ca is suggested to be controlled primarily by temperature and may provide a paleo cave thermometer with less rainfall influence than Mg/Ca. Ongoing monitoring of the cave temperature and humidity will assess the robustness of this conclusion and the sensitivity of speleothem U/Ca to temperature. (234U/238U) in this stalagmite range from 1.733 to 1.872 during the Holocene. The U concentration is high enough (typically 0.48 ppm) and growth rate fast enough, that (234U/238U) can also be measured at a subannual resolution. The expected alpha-recoil control of excess 234U supply suggests that these measurements may provide a measure of the transit time of recharge waters to the stalagmite during the seasonal cycle. Such a proxy would enable deconvolution of temperature and recharge-rate control in trace element records from speleothems.

West Bank of the Mississippi River in the Vicinity of New Orleans, Louisiana (East of the Harvey Canal) Hurricane Protection Study. Technical Appendixes. Volume 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-08-01

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, 30-YEAR NORMALS (1951-1980) A-I-3 A-I-2 MEAN MONTHLY AND ANNUAL TEMPERATURE , 30-YEAR NORMALS (1951-1980) A-I-4 A-1-3 AVERAGE ...Environmental Quality (DEQ). CLIMATE The climate of the area is humid si!btropicl. AMual average temperature in the project area is 68°F, with monthly...normal temperatures varying from 82’F in July to 531F in Januwry. Average annual precipitation over tae area is 63 inche!, maiying from a monthly

Relationships between water temperatures and upstream migration, cold water refuge use, and spawning of adult bull trout from the Lostine River, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, P.J.; Dunham, J.B.; Sankovich, P.M.

2010-01-01

Understanding thermal habitat use by migratory fish has been limited by difficulties in matching fish locations with water temperatures. To describe spatial and temporal patterns of thermal habitat use by migratory adult bull trout, Salvelinus confluentus, that spawn in the Lostine River, Oregon, we employed a combination of archival temperature tags, radio tags, and thermographs. We also compared temperatures of the tagged fish to ambient water temperatures to determine if the fish were using thermal refuges. The timing and temperatures at which fish moved upstream from overwintering areas to spawning locations varied considerably among individuals. The annual maximum 7-day average daily maximum (7DADM) temperatures of tagged fish were 16-18 ??C and potentially as high as 21 ??C. Maximum 7DADM ambient water temperatures within the range of tagged fish during summer were 18-25 ??C. However, there was no evidence of the tagged fish using localized cold water refuges. Tagged fish appeared to spawn at 7DADM temperatures of 7-14 ??C. Maximum 7DADM temperatures of tagged fish and ambient temperatures at the onset of the spawning period in late August were 11-18 ??C. Water temperatures in most of the upper Lostine River used for spawning and rearing appear to be largely natural since there has been little development, whereas downstream reaches used by migratory bull trout are heavily diverted for irrigation. Although the population effects of these temperatures are unknown, summer temperatures and the higher temperatures observed for spawning fish appear to be at or above the upper range of suitability reported for the species. Published 2009. This article is a US Governmentwork and is in the public domain in the USA.

An atlas of monthly mean distributions of GEOSAT sea surface height, SSMI surface wind speed, AVHRR/2 sea surface temperature, and ECMWF surface wind components during 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Zlotnicki, V.; Newman, J.; Brown, O.; Wentz, F.

1991-01-01

Monthly mean global distributions for 1988 are presented with a common color scale and geographical map. Distributions are included for sea surface height variation estimated from GEOSAT; surface wind speed estimated from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft; sea surface temperature estimated from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on NOAA spacecrafts; and the Cartesian components of the 10m height wind vector computed by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. Charts of monthly mean value, sampling distribution, and standard deviation value are displayed. Annual mean distributions are displayed.

Models are likely to underestimate increase in heavy rainfall in regions with high rainfall intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borodina, Aleksandra; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

2017-04-01

Model projections of heavy rainfall are uncertain. On timescales of few decades, internal variability plays an important role and therefore poses a challenge to detect robust model responses. We show that spatial aggregation across regions with intense heavy rainfall events, - defined as grid cells with high annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day), - allows to reduce the role of internal variability and thus to detect a robust signal during the historical period. This enables us to evaluate models with observational datasets and to constrain long-term projections of the intensification of heavy rainfall, i.e., to recalibrate full model ensemble consistent with observations resulting in narrower range of projections. In the regions of intense heavy rainfall, we found two present-day metrics that are related to a model's projection. The first metric is the observed relationship between the area-weighted mean of the annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day) and the global land temperatures. The second is the fraction of land exhibiting statistically significant relationships between local annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day) and global land temperatures over the historical period. The models that simulate high values in both metrics are those that are in better agreement with observations and show strong future intensification of heavy rainfall. This implies that changes in heavy rainfall are likely to be more intense than anticipated from the multi-model mean.

Investigations of the middle atmospheric thermal structure and oscillations over sub-tropical regions in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Som; Kumar, Prashant; Jethva, Chintan; Vaishnav, Rajesh; Bencherif, Hassan

2017-06-01

The temperature retrieved from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) onboard Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite during January 2002 to September 2015 are used in this study to delineate the differences of middle atmospheric thermal structure in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH). Two stations namely Mt. Abu (24.59°N, 72.70°E) in NH and Reunion Island (21.11°S, 55.53°E) in SH are chosen over sub-tropical regions. Temperature climatology from SABER observations suggests that stratopause is warmer, and upper mesosphere is cooler in NH as compared to SH. Three atmospheric models are used to understand the monthly thermal structure differences for different altitudes. Moreover, semi-annual, annual and quasi-biennial oscillations are studied using Lomb Scargle Periodogram and Wavelet transform techniques. Over NH, summer and winter season are warmer ( 4 K) and cooler ( 3 K) respectively in stratosphere as compared to SH. It is important to note here that Mt. Abu temperature is warmer ( 9 K) than Reunion Island in winter but in summer season Mt. Abu temperature is cooler in upper mesosphere and above mesosphere NH shows warming. Results show that annual oscillations are dominated in both hemisphere as compared to semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations. In upper mesosphere, strength of annual oscillations is substantial in NH, while semi-annual oscillations are stronger in SH. Wavelet analyses found that annual oscillations are significant in NH near mesopause, while semi-annual oscillations are strengthening in SH.

N2O emissions from a nitrogen-enriched river

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, P.B.; Dennehy, K.F.

1999-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the South Platte River in Colorado were measured using closed chambers in the fall, winter, and summer of 1994- 1995. The South Platte River was enriched in inorganic N (9-800 ??M) derived from municipal wastewater effluent and groundwater return flows from irrigated agricultural fields. River water was as much as 2500% supersaturated with N2O, and median N2O emission rates from the river surface ranged from less than 90 to 32 600 ??g-N m-2 d-1. Seventy-nine percent of the variance in N2O emission rates was explained by concentrations of total inorganic N in river water and by water temperature. The estimated total annual N2O emissions from the South Platte River were 2 x 1013-6 x 1013 ??g-N yr-1. This amount of annual N2O emissions was similar to the estimated annual N2O emissions from all primary municipal wastewater treatment processes in the United States (1). Results from this study indicate that N-enriched rivers could be important anthropogenic sources of N2O to the atmosphere. However, N2O emission measurements from other N-enriched rivers are needed to better quantify this source.Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the South Platte River in Colorado were measured using closed chambers in the fall, winter, and summer of 1994-1995. The South Platte River was enriched in inorganic N (9-800 ??M) derived from municipal wastewater effluent and groundwater return flows from irrigated agricultural fields. River water was as much as 2500% supersaturated with N2O, and median N2O emission rates from the river surface ranged from less than 90 to 32 600 ??g-N m-2 d-1. Seventy-nine percent of the variance in N2O emission rates was explained by concentrations of total inorganic N in river water and by water temperature. The estimated total annual N2O emissions from the South Platte River were 2??1013-6??1013 ??g-N yr-1. This amount of annual N2O emissions was similar to the estimated annual N2O emissions from all primary municipal wastewater treatment processes in the United States. Results from this study indicate that N-enriched rivers could be important anthropogenic sources of N2O to the atmosphere. However, N2O emission measurements from other N-enriched rivers are needed to better quantify this source.

Does enemy damage vary across the range of exotic plant species? Evidence from two coastal dune plant species in eastern Australia.

PubMed

Tabassum, Samiya; Leishman, Michelle R

2018-02-01

Release from natural enemies is often cited as a key factor for understanding the success of invasive plant species in novel environments. However, with time invasive species will accumulate native enemies in their invaded range, with factors such as spread distance from the site of introduction, climate and leaf-level traits potentially affecting enemy acquisition rates. However, the influence of such factors is difficult to assess without examining enemy attack across the entire species' range. We tested the significance of factors associated with range expansion (distance from source population and maximum population density), climatic variables (annual temperature and rainfall) and leaf-level traits [specific leaf area (SLA) and foliar nitrogen concentration] in explaining variation in enemy damage across multiple populations of two coastal invasive plants (Gladiolus gueinzii Kunze and Hydrocotyle bonariensis Lam.) along their entire introduced distribution in eastern Australia. We found that for H. bonariensis, amount of foliar damage increased with distance from source population. In contrast, for G. gueinzii, probability and amount of foliar damage decreased with decreasing temperature and increasing rainfall, respectively. Our results show that patterns of enemy attack across species' ranges are complex and cannot be generalised between species or even range edges.

Near-zero methane emission from an abandoned boreal peatland pasture based on eddy covariance measurements

PubMed Central

Wang, Mei; Luan, Junwei; Lafleur, Peter; Chen, Huai; Zhu, Xinbiao

2017-01-01

Although estimates of the annual methane (CH4) flux from agriculturally managed peatlands exist, knowledge of controls over the variation of CH4 at different time-scales is limited due to the lack of high temporal-resolution data. Here we present CH4 fluxes measured from May 2014 to April 2016 using the eddy covariance technique at an abandoned peatland pasture in western Newfoundland, Canada. The goals of the study were to identify the controls on the seasonal variations in CH4 flux and to quantify the annual CH4 flux. The seasonal variation in daily CH4 flux was not strong in the two study years, however a few periods of pronounced emissions occurred in the late growing season. The daily average CH4 flux was small relative to other studies, ranging from -4.1 to 9.9 nmol m-2 s-1 in 2014–15 and from -7.1 to 12.1 nmol m-2 s-1 in 2015–16. Stepwise multiple regression was used to investigate controls on CH4 flux and this analysis found shifting controls on CH4 flux at different periods of the growing season. During the early growing season CH4 flux was closely related to carbon dioxide fixation rates, suggesting substrate availability was the main control. The peak growing season CH4 flux was principally controlled by the CH4 oxidation in 2014, where the CH4 flux decreased and increased with soil temperature at 50 cm and soil water content at 10 cm, but a contrasting temperature-CH4 relation was found in 2015. The late growing season CH4 flux was found to be regulated by the variation in water table level and air temperature in 2014. The annual CH4 emission was near zero in both study years (0.36 ± 0.30 g CH4 m-2 yr-1 in 2014–15 and 0.13 ± 0.38 g CH4 m-2 yr-1 in 2015–16), but fell within the range of CH4 emissions reported for agriculturally managed peatlands elsewhere. PMID:29252998

Near-zero methane emission from an abandoned boreal peatland pasture based on eddy covariance measurements.

PubMed

Wang, Mei; Wu, Jianghua; Luan, Junwei; Lafleur, Peter; Chen, Huai; Zhu, Xinbiao

2017-01-01

Although estimates of the annual methane (CH4) flux from agriculturally managed peatlands exist, knowledge of controls over the variation of CH4 at different time-scales is limited due to the lack of high temporal-resolution data. Here we present CH4 fluxes measured from May 2014 to April 2016 using the eddy covariance technique at an abandoned peatland pasture in western Newfoundland, Canada. The goals of the study were to identify the controls on the seasonal variations in CH4 flux and to quantify the annual CH4 flux. The seasonal variation in daily CH4 flux was not strong in the two study years, however a few periods of pronounced emissions occurred in the late growing season. The daily average CH4 flux was small relative to other studies, ranging from -4.1 to 9.9 nmol m-2 s-1 in 2014-15 and from -7.1 to 12.1 nmol m-2 s-1 in 2015-16. Stepwise multiple regression was used to investigate controls on CH4 flux and this analysis found shifting controls on CH4 flux at different periods of the growing season. During the early growing season CH4 flux was closely related to carbon dioxide fixation rates, suggesting substrate availability was the main control. The peak growing season CH4 flux was principally controlled by the CH4 oxidation in 2014, where the CH4 flux decreased and increased with soil temperature at 50 cm and soil water content at 10 cm, but a contrasting temperature-CH4 relation was found in 2015. The late growing season CH4 flux was found to be regulated by the variation in water table level and air temperature in 2014. The annual CH4 emission was near zero in both study years (0.36 ± 0.30 g CH4 m-2 yr-1 in 2014-15 and 0.13 ± 0.38 g CH4 m-2 yr-1 in 2015-16), but fell within the range of CH4 emissions reported for agriculturally managed peatlands elsewhere.

Who’s on top? SST proxy comparison from the Peru Margin Upwelling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chazen, C.; Herbert, T.; Altabet, M. A.

2009-12-01

The Peru Margin upwelling region is situated at the interface between the poleward Peru Undercurrent and the equatorward Peru Coastal current. Strong coastal winds force cold, nutrient-rich thermocline waters to the surface. Sea surface temperatures in this region fluctuate sub-annually with changes in the position of the Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and sub-decadally with modifications in the strength of Walker Circulation. In contrast, the temperature of the Peru Margin thermocline is stable, isolated from surface winds and slow to respond to major perturbations in surface temperature. Using high resolution sampling (6-7 year) across an annually laminated sediment core from the heart of the Peru Margin upwelling system (15°S) we explore how Uk’37 temperatures compare with TEX86 temperatures across a 200-year interval in the Mid-late Holocene. Mean late Holocene Uk’37 temperatures, extracted from a high sedimentation rate core from the Peru Margin are similar to modern mean annual sea surface temperatures at 15°S. Multi-decadal-scale (50-100 year) Uk’37 temperature fluctuations oscillate about the mean by 1.5°C. These rapid temperature changes are coherent with fluctuations in surface productivity (C37total and Biogenic Silica) in addition to sub-surface denitrification (δ15N). In contrast, TEX86 temperatures derived from identical samples exhibit colder temperatures than modern mean annual conditions and virtually no temperature fluctuation. We posit that TEX86 values are recording temperatures below the photic zone near the mix-layer-thermocline boundary and may, on longer timescales provide invaluable information about thermocline temperature. With this interpretation in mind, we present a TEX86-based long-term thermocline reconstruction over the Holocene.

A decade of continuous NEE measurements at a Scottish peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helfter, Carole; Campbell, Claire; Coyle, Mhairi; Anderson, Margaret; Drewer, Julia; Levy, Peter; Famulari, Daniela; Twigg, Marsailidh; Skiba, Ute; Billett, Michael; Dinsmore, Kerry; Nemitz, Eiko; Sutton, Mark

2013-04-01

Eddy-covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes have been running continuously at the Auchencorth Moss peatland site in Scotland (55o47'32N, 3o14'35W, 267 m a.s.l.) since the spring of 2002 which makes this study one of the longest ones to date on a peatland system. Auchencorth Moss is a low-lying, ombrotrophic peatland situated ca. 20 km south-west of Edinburgh. Peat depth ranges from <0.5 m to >0.5 m and the site has a mean annual precipitation of 1155 mm. The open moorland site has an extensive uniform fetch of blanket bog to the south, west and north. The vegetation present within the flux measurement footprint comprises mixed grass species, heather and substantial areas of moss species (Sphagnum spp. and Polytrichum spp.). The eddy-covariance system consists of a Licor 7000 closed-path infrared gas analyser operating at 10 Hz for the simultaneous measurement of carbon dioxide and water vapour and of a Gill Windmaster Pro ultrasonic anemometer, operating at 20 Hz, and mounted atop a 3 m mast. The effective measurement height is 3.5 m with a vertical separation of 20 cm between the anemometer and the inlet of the sampling line. Air is sampled at 20 litres per minute through a 40 m long Dekabon line (internal diameter 4 mm). In addition to eddy-covariance measurements, the site is equipped with a weather station, soil temperature measurements, total solar radiation and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) sensors, a tipping bucket for rainfall and, since April 2007, water table depth has been recorded at half-hourly interval. On an annual basis, the peatland at Auchencorth Moss has consistently been a net sink of CO2 in the study period 2002-2012 with a mean net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of - 69.1 ± 33.6 g C-CO2 m-2 yr-1. This value is at the high end of other recent studies as is the inter-annual range of NEE (-31.4 to -135.9 g C-CO2 m-2 yr-1). Inter-annual variations in NEE are significant and strongly correlated to the length of the growing seasons whilst seasonal variations in both NEE and ecosystem respiration are largely driven by air temperature. Monthly and seasonal mean air temperatures during the 2002-2012 study period were very similar to 50-year means, whilst rainfall for that decade was on average higher. Potential effects of rainfall or water table height on NEE and respiration could not be separated from air temperature which appeared to be the strongest control. We conclude by discussing the 10 year NEE dataset in the context of future changes to our climate and the likely scenarios for peatland NEE fluxes.

SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) Temperature Observations of Mesospheric and Stratospheric QBO and Related Tidal Variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Frank T.; Mayr, Hans G.; Reber, Carl A.; Russell, James; Mlynczak, Marty; Mengel, John

2006-01-01

More than three years of temperature observations from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS WARS) instruments are analyzed to study the annual and inter-annual variations extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere. The SABER measurements provide data from a wide altitude range (15 to 95 km) for the years 2002 to 2004, while the MLS data were taken in the 16 to 55 km altitude range a decade earlier. Because of the sampling properties of SABER and MLS, the variations with local solar time must be accounted for when estimating the zonal mean variations. An algorithm is thus applied that delineates with Fourier analysis the year-long variations of the migrating tides and zonal mean component. The amplitude of the diurnal tide near the equator shows a strong semiannual periodicity with maxima near equinox, which vary from year to year to indicate the influence from the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation. The zonal mean QBO temperature variations are analyzed over a range of latitudes and altitudes, and the results are presented for latitudes from 48"s to 48"N. New results are obtained for the QBO, especially in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, and at mid-latitudes. At Equatorial latitudes, the QBO amplitudes show local peaks, albeit small, that occur at different altitudes. From about 20 to 40 km, and within about 15" of the Equator, the amplitudes can approach 3S K for the stratospheric QBO or SQBO. For the mesospheric QBO or MQBO, we find peaks near 70 km, with temperature amplitudes reaching 3.5"K, and near 85 km, the amplitudes approach 2.5OK. Morphologically, the amplitude and phase variations derived from the SABER and MLS measurements are in qualitative agreement. The QBO amplitudes tend to peak at the Equator but then increase again pole-ward of about 15" to 20'. The phase progression with altitude varies more gradually at the Equator than at mid-latitudes. A comparison of the observations with results from the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) reveals that there is qualitative agreement. The NSM generates the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, with temperature variations extending to mid latitudes, but the predicted amplitudes are smaller than those observed.

Harmonic analyses of stream temperatures in the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steele, T.D.

1985-01-01

Harmonic analyses were made for available daily water-temperature records for 36 measurement sites on major streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin and for 14 measurement sites on streams in the Piceance structural basin. Generally (88 percent of the station years analyzed), more than 80 percent of the annual variability of temperatures of streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin was explained by the simple-harmonic function. Significant trends were determined for 6 of the 26 site records having 8 years or more record. In most cases, these trends resulted from construction and operation of upstream surface-water impoundments occurring during the period of record. Regional analysis of water-temperature characteristics at the 14 streamflow sites in the Piceance structural basin indicated similarities in water-temperature characteristics for a small range of measurement-site elevations. Evaluation of information content of the daily records indicated that less-than-daily measurement intervals should be considered, resulting in substantial savings in measurement and data-processing costs. (USGS)

Measurements versus Predictions for a Hybrid (Hydrostatic Plus Hydrodynamic) Thrust Bearing for a Range of Orifice Diameters

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-01

Type of Lubrication for a Tilting Pad Thrust Bearing ,” ASME Journal of Lubrication Technology, 96 Ser F (1), pp. 22-27. [9] Gregory, R.S., 1974...1986, “Measurements of Maximum Temperature in Tilting - Pad Thrust Bearings ,” Technical Preprints - Presented at the ASLE 41st Annual Meeting. (ASLE...Safar [7] provides a modified Reynolds number analysis on hydrostatic thrust bearing performance parameters including the effects of tilt . Finally, San

Proceedings of the Annual Electronics Manufacturing Seminar (12th) Held in China Lake, California on 17-19 February 1988

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-02-01

8217age resistant’ solder lead finish for comparison purposes. * Solder coating thickness ranged from 5 through 10 microns, and solder composition was...approximate composition NiSn3, which does not correspond to any of the stable Ni-Sn IMC’s on the 60- equilibrium phase diagram. A long-term low-temperature...phase, and so is the composition . Differential scanning calorimetry measurements determined that NiSn 3 indeed is a metastable phase which rapidly

Genome-wide signatures of flowering adaptation to climate temperature: Regional analyses in a highly diverse native range of Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Tabas-Madrid, Daniel; Méndez-Vigo, Belén; Arteaga, Noelia; Marcer, Arnald; Pascual-Montano, Alberto; Weigel, Detlef; Xavier Picó, F; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos

2018-03-08

Current global change is fueling an interest to understand the genetic and molecular mechanisms of plant adaptation to climate. In particular, altered flowering time is a common strategy for escape from unfavourable climate temperature. In order to determine the genomic bases underlying flowering time adaptation to this climatic factor, we have systematically analysed a collection of 174 highly diverse Arabidopsis thaliana accessions from the Iberian Peninsula. Analyses of 1.88 million single nucleotide polymorphisms provide evidence for a spatially heterogeneous contribution of demographic and adaptive processes to geographic patterns of genetic variation. Mountains appear to be allele dispersal barriers, whereas the relationship between flowering time and temperature depended on the precise temperature range. Environmental genome-wide associations supported an overall genome adaptation to temperature, with 9.4% of the genes showing significant associations. Furthermore, phenotypic genome-wide associations provided a catalogue of candidate genes underlying flowering time variation. Finally, comparison of environmental and phenotypic genome-wide associations identified known (Twin Sister of FT, FRIGIDA-like 1, and Casein Kinase II Beta chain 1) and new (Epithiospecifer Modifier 1 and Voltage-Dependent Anion Channel 5) genes as candidates for adaptation to climate temperature by altered flowering time. Thus, this regional collection provides an excellent resource to address the spatial complexity of climate adaptation in annual plants. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Renduo; Cescatti, Alessandro

The net ecosystem CO 2 exchange is the result of the imbalance between the assimilation process (gross primary production, GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). The aim of this study was to investigate temperature sensitivities of these processes and the effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions. A database of 403 site-years of ecosystem flux data at 101 sites in the world was collected and analyzed. Temperature sensitivities of rates of RE and GPP were quantified with Q 10, defined as the increase of RE (or GPP) ratesmore » with a temperature rise of 10 °C. Results showed that on the annual time scale, the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of GPP (Q 10sG) was higher than or equivalent to the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of RE (Q 10sR). Q 10sG was negatively correlated to the mean annual temperature (MAT), whereas Q 10sR was independent of MAT. The analysis of the current temperature sensitivities and net ecosystem production suggested that temperature rise might enhance the CO 2 sink of terrestrial ecosystems both in the boreal and temperate regions. Additionally, ecosystems in these regions with different plant functional types should sequester more CO 2 with climate warming.« less

Effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Renduo; Cescatti, Alessandro; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Buchmann, Nina; Zhu, Juan; Chen, Guanhong; Moyano, Fernando; Pumpanen, Jukka; Hirano, Takashi; Takagi, Kentaro; Merbold, Lutz

2017-06-08

The net ecosystem CO 2 exchange is the result of the imbalance between the assimilation process (gross primary production, GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). The aim of this study was to investigate temperature sensitivities of these processes and the effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions. A database of 403 site-years of ecosystem flux data at 101 sites in the world was collected and analyzed. Temperature sensitivities of rates of RE and GPP were quantified with Q 10 , defined as the increase of RE (or GPP) rates with a temperature rise of 10 °C. Results showed that on the annual time scale, the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of GPP (Q 10sG ) was higher than or equivalent to the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of RE (Q 10sR ). Q 10sG was negatively correlated to the mean annual temperature (MAT), whereas Q 10sR was independent of MAT. The analysis of the current temperature sensitivities and net ecosystem production suggested that temperature rise might enhance the CO 2 sink of terrestrial ecosystems both in the boreal and temperate regions. In addition, ecosystems in these regions with different plant functional types should sequester more CO 2 with climate warming.

Effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Renduo; Cescatti, Alessandro; ...

2017-06-08

The net ecosystem CO 2 exchange is the result of the imbalance between the assimilation process (gross primary production, GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). The aim of this study was to investigate temperature sensitivities of these processes and the effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions. A database of 403 site-years of ecosystem flux data at 101 sites in the world was collected and analyzed. Temperature sensitivities of rates of RE and GPP were quantified with Q 10, defined as the increase of RE (or GPP) ratesmore » with a temperature rise of 10 °C. Results showed that on the annual time scale, the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of GPP (Q 10sG) was higher than or equivalent to the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of RE (Q 10sR). Q 10sG was negatively correlated to the mean annual temperature (MAT), whereas Q 10sR was independent of MAT. The analysis of the current temperature sensitivities and net ecosystem production suggested that temperature rise might enhance the CO 2 sink of terrestrial ecosystems both in the boreal and temperate regions. Additionally, ecosystems in these regions with different plant functional types should sequester more CO 2 with climate warming.« less

Relationship between season of birth, temperature exposure, and later life wellbeing.

PubMed

Isen, Adam; Rossin-Slater, Maya; Walker, Reed

2017-12-19

We study how exposure to extreme temperatures in early periods of child development is related to adult economic outcomes measured 30 y later. Our analysis uses administrative earnings records for over 12 million individuals born in the United States between 1969 and 1977, linked to fine-scale, daily weather data and location and date of birth. We calculate the length of time each individual is exposed to different temperatures in utero and in early childhood, and we estimate flexible regression models that allow for nonlinearities in the relationship between temperature and long-run outcomes. We find that an extra day with mean temperatures above 32 °C in utero and in the first year after birth is associated with a 0.1% reduction in adult annual earnings at age 30. Temperature sensitivity is evident in multiple periods of early development, ranging from the first trimester of gestation to age 6-12 mo. We observe that household air-conditioning adoption, which increased dramatically over the time period studied, mitigates nearly all of the estimated temperature sensitivity.

Modeling annual mallard production in the prairie-parkland region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, M.W.

2000-01-01

Biologists have proposed several environmental factors that might influence production of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) nesting in the prairie-parkland region of the United States and Canada. These factors include precipitation, cold spring temperatures, wetland abundance, and upland breeding habitat. I used long-term historical data sets of climate, wetland numbers, agricultural land use, and size of breeding mallard populations in multiple regression analyses to model annual indices of mallard production. Models were constructed at 2 scales: a continental scale that encompassed most of the mid-continental breeding range of mallards and a stratum-level scale that included 23 portions of that same breeding range. The production index at the continental scale was the estimated age ratio of mid-continental mallards in early fall; at the stratum scale my production index was the estimated number of broods of all duck species within an aerial survey stratum. Size of breeding mallard populations in May, and pond numbers in May and July, best modeled production at the continental scale. Variables that best modeled production at the stratum scale differed by region. Crop variables tended to appear more in models for western Canadian strata; pond variables predominated in models for United States strata; and spring temperature and pond variables dominated models for eastern Canadian strata. An index of cold spring temperatures appeared in 4 of 6 models for aspen parkland strata, and in only 1 of 11 models for strata dominated by prairie. Stratum-level models suggest that regional factors influencing mallard production are not evident at a larger scale. Testing these potential factors in a manipulative fashion would improve our understanding of mallard population dynamics, improving our ability to manage the mid-continental mallard population.

Chromosome numbers in three species groups of freshwater flatworms increase with increasing latitude.

PubMed

Lorch, Sven; Zeuss, Dirk; Brandl, Roland; Brändle, Martin

2016-03-01

Polyploidy in combination with parthenogenesis offers advantages for plasticity and the evolution of a broad ecological tolerance of species. Therefore, a positive correlation between the level of ploidy and increasing latitude as a surrogate for environmental harshness has been suggested. Such a positive correlation is well documented for plants, but examples for animals are still rare. Species of flatworms (Platyhelminthes) are widely distributed, show a remarkably wide range of chromosome numbers, and offer therefore good model systems to study the geographical distribution of chromosome numbers. We analyzed published data on counts of chromosome numbers and geographical information of three flatworm "species" (Phagocata vitta, Polycelis felina and Crenobia alpina) sampled across Europe (220 populations). We used the mean chromosome number across individuals of a population as a proxy for the level of ploidy within populations, and we tested for relationships of this variable with latitude, mode of reproduction (sexual, asexual or both) and environmental variables (annual mean temperature, mean diurnal temperature range, mean precipitation and net primary production). The mean chromosome numbers of all three species increased with latitude and decreased with mean annual temperature. For two species, chromosome number also decreased with mean precipitation and net primary production. Furthermore, high chromosome numbers within species were accompanied with a loss of sexual reproduction. The variation of chromosome numbers within individuals of two of the three species increased with latitude. Our results support the hypothesis that polyploid lineages are able to cope with harsh climatic conditions at high latitudes. Furthermore, we propose that asexual reproduction in populations with high levels of polyploidization stabilizes hybridization events. Chromosomal irregularities within individuals tend to become more frequent at the extreme environments of high latitudes, presumably because of mitotic errors and downsizing of the genome.

Assessment of Acacia koa forest health across environmental gradients in Hawai'i using fine resolution remote sensing and GIS.

PubMed

Morales, Rodolfo Martinez; Idol, Travis; Friday, James B

2011-01-01

Koa (Acacia koa) forests are found across broad environmental gradients in the Hawai'ian Islands. Previous studies have identified koa forest health problems and dieback at the plot level, but landscape level patterns remain unstudied. The availability of high-resolution satellite images from the new GeoEye1 satellite offers the opportunity to conduct landscape-level assessments of forest health. The goal of this study was to develop integrated remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) methodologies to characterize the health of koa forests and model the spatial distribution and variability of koa forest dieback patterns across an elevation range of 600-1,000 m asl in the island of Kaua'i, which correspond to gradients of temperature and rainfall ranging from 17-20 °C mean annual temperature and 750-1,500 mm mean annual precipitation. GeoEye1 satellite imagery of koa stands was analyzed using supervised classification techniques based on the analysis of 0.5-m pixel multispectral bands. There was clear differentiation of native koa forest from areas dominated by introduced tree species and differentiation of healthy koa stands from those exhibiting dieback symptoms. The area ratio of healthy koa to koa dieback corresponded linearly to changes in temperature across the environmental gradient, with koa dieback at higher relative abundance in warmer areas. A landscape-scale map of healthy koa forest and dieback distribution demonstrated both the general trend with elevation and the small-scale heterogeneity that exists within particular elevations. The application of these classification techniques with fine spatial resolution imagery can improve the accuracy of koa forest inventory and mapping across the islands of Hawai'i. Such findings should also improve ecological restoration, conservation and silviculture of this important native tree species.

Hydrothermal extremes at the South-West Pribaikalie during the current climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voropay, Nadezhda

2017-04-01

Climatic extremes of air temperature and precipitation were analyzed for the Tunka Intermountain Depression (South-West Pribaikalie, Buryatia, Russian Federation). Intermountain depressions occupy a quarter of the territory of the Baikal region. The specific climatic conditions in the depressions are formed due to the geographic location and the influence of latitudinal zonation and altitudinal gradients. Air temperature and precipitation data records from at weather stations for the period 1940-2015 were analyzed. Long-term average annual temperature is negative and varies from -0.8 °C to -2.4 °C. Air temperature absolute minimum is -48 °C, absolute maximum is +36 °C. The long-term average annual precipitation is 370-480 mm, but in some years annual precipitation reach 760 mm. The summer months have about 70% of the total annual precipitation, in July and August the sum may reach 340 mm. Maximum daily sum of rainfalls is 80 mm. The contribution of the global and regional circulation characteristics into the variability of regional climatic characteristics was estimated.

Simulation and observations of annual density banding in skeletons of Montastraea (Cnidaria: Scleractinia) growing under thermal stress associated with ocean warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Worum, F.P.; Carricart-Ganivet, J. P.; Benson, L.; Golicher, D.

2007-01-01

We present a model of annual density banding in skeletons of Montastraea coral species growing under thermal stress associated with an ocean-warming scenario. The model predicts that at sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) <29??C, high-density bands (HDBs) are formed during the warmest months of the year. As temperature rises and oscillates around the optimal calcification temperature, an annual doublet in the HDB (dHDB) occurs that consists of two narrow HDBs. The presence of such dHDBs in skeletons of Montastraea species is a clear indication of thermal stress. When all monthly SSTs exceed the optimal calcification temperature, HDBs form during the coldest, not the warmest, months of the year. In addition, a decline in mean-annual calcification rate also occurs during this period of elevated SST. A comparison of our model results with annual density patterns observed in skeletons of M. faveolata and M. franksi, collected from several localities in the Mexican Caribbean, indicates that elevated SSTs are already resulting in the presence of dHDBs as a first sign of thermal stress, which occurs even without coral bleaching. ?? 2007, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

2018-05-01

This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

Moderate climate signature in cranial anatomy of late holocene human populations from Southern South America.

PubMed

Paula Menéndez, Lumila

2018-02-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the association between cranial variation and climate in order to discuss their role during the diversification of southern South American populations. Therefore, the specific objectives are: (1) to explore the spatial pattern of cranial variation with regard to the climatic diversity of the region, and (2) to evaluate the differential impact that the climatic factors may have had on the shape and size of the diverse cranial structures studied. The variation in shape and size of 361 crania was studied, registering 62 3D landmarks that capture shape and size variation in the face, cranial vault, and base. Mean, minimum, and maximum annual temperature, as well as mean annual precipitation, but also diet and altitude, were matched for each population sample. A PCA, as well as spatial statistical techniques, including kriging, regression, and multimodel inference were employed. The facial skeleton size presents a latitudinal pattern which is partially associated with temperature diversity. Both diet and altitude are the variables that mainly explain the skull shape variation, although mean annual temperature also plays a role. The association between climate factors and cranial variation is low to moderate, mean annual temperature explains almost 40% of the entire skull, facial skeleton and cranial vault shape variation, while annual precipitation and minimum annual temperature only contribute to the morphological variation when considered together with maximum annual temperature. The cranial base is the structure less associated with climate diversity. These results suggest that climate factors may have had a partial impact on the facial and vault shape, and therefore contributed moderately to the diversification of southern South American populations, while diet and altitude might have had a stronger impact. Therefore, cranial variation at the southern cone has been shaped both by random and nonrandom factors. Particularly, the influence of climate on skull shape has probably been the result of directional selection. This study supports that, although cranial vault is the cranial structure more associated to mean annual temperature, the impact of climate signature on morphology decreases when populations from extreme cold environments are excluded from the analysis. Additionally, it shows that the extent of the geographical scales analyzed, as well as differential sampling may lead to different results regarding the role of ecological factors and evolutionary processes on cranial morphology. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Waste heat generation: A comprehensive review.

PubMed

Yeşiller, Nazli; Hanson, James L; Yee, Emma H

2015-08-01

A comprehensive review of heat generation in various types of wastes and of the thermal regime of waste containment facilities is provided in this paper. Municipal solid waste (MSW), MSW incineration ash, and mining wastes were included in the analysis. Spatial and temporal variations of waste temperatures, thermal gradients, thermal properties of wastes, average temperature differentials, and heat generation values are provided. Heat generation was influenced by climatic conditions, mean annual earth temperatures, waste temperatures at the time of placement, cover conditions, and inherent heat generation potential of the specific wastes. Time to onset of heat generation varied between months and years, whereas timelines for overall duration of heat generation varied between years and decades. For MSW, measured waste temperatures were as high as 60-90°C and as low as -6°C. MSW incinerator ash temperatures varied between 5 and 87°C. Mining waste temperatures were in the range of -25 to 65°C. In the wastes analyzed, upward heat flow toward the surface was more prominent than downward heat flow toward the subsurface. Thermal gradients generally were higher for MSW and incinerator ash and lower for mining waste. Based on thermal properties, MSW had insulative qualities (low thermal conductivity), while mining wastes typically were relatively conductive (high thermal conductivity) with ash having intermediate qualities. Heat generation values ranged from -8.6 to 83.1MJ/m(3) and from 0.6 to 72.6MJ/m(3) for MSW and mining waste, respectively and was 72.6MJ/m(3) for ash waste. Conductive thermal losses were determined to range from 13 to 1111MJ/m(3)yr. The data and analysis provided in this review paper can be used in the investigation of heat generation and thermal regime of a wide range of wastes and waste containment facilities located in different climatic regions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection of spatio-temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation based on long-term meteorological station observations over Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Min; Kang, Shichang; Wu, Hao; Yuan, Xu

2018-05-01

As abundant distribution of glaciers and snow, the Tianshan Mountains are highly vulnerable to changes in climate. Based on meteorological station records during 1960-2016, we detected the variations of air temperature and precipitation by using non-parametric method in the different sub-regions and different elevations of the Tianshan Mountains. The mutations of climate were investigated by Mann-Kendall abrupt change test in the sub-regions. The periodicity is examined by wavelet analysis employing a chi-square test and detecting significant time sections. The results show that the Tianshan Mountains experienced an overall rapid warming and wetting during study period, with average warming rate of 0.32 °C/10a and wet rate of 5.82 mm/10a, respectively. The annual and seasonal spatial variation of temperature showed different scales in different regions. The annual precipitation showed non-significant upward trend in 20 stations, and 6 stations showed a significant upward trend. The temperatures in the East Tianshan increased most rapidly at rates of 0.41 °C/10a. The increasing magnitudes of annual precipitation were highest in the Boertala Vally (8.07 mm/10a) and lowest in the East Tianshan (2.64 mm/10a). The greatest and weakest warming was below 500 m (0.42 °C/10a) and elevation of 1000-1500 m (0.23 °C/10a), respectively. The increasing magnitudes of annual precipitation were highest in the elevation of 1500 m-2000 m (9.22 mm/10a) and lowest in the elevation of below 500 m (3.45 mm/10a). The mutations of annual air temperature and precipitation occurred in 1995 and 1990, respectively. The large atmospheric circulation influenced on the mutations of climate. The significant periods of air temperature were 2.4-4.1 years, and annual precipitation was 2.5-7.4 years. Elevation dependency of temperature trend magnitude was not evidently in the Tianshan Mountains. The annual precipitation wetting trend was amplified with elevation in summer and autumn. The strong elevation dependence of precipitation increasing trend appeared in summer.

Quantifying Temperature Effects on Snow, Plant and Streamflow Dynamics in Headwater Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wainwright, H. M.; Sarah, T.; Siirila-Woodburn, E. R.; Newcomer, M. E.; Williams, K. H.; Hubbard, S. S.; Enquist, B. J.; Steltzer, H.; Carroll, R. W. H.

2017-12-01

Quantifying Temperature Effects on Snow, Plant and Streamflow Dynamics in Headwater Catchments Snow-dominated headwater catchments are critical for water resource throughout the world; particularly in Western US. Under climate change, temperature increases are expected to be amplified in mountainous regions. We use a data-driven approach to better understand the coupling among inter-annual variability in temperature, snow and plant community dynamics and stream discharge. We apply data mining methods (e.g., principal component analysis, random forest) to historical spatiotemporal datasets, including the SNOTEL data, Landsat-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and airborne LiDAR-based snow distribution. Although both snow distribution and NDVI are extremely heterogeneous spatially, the inter-annual variability and temporal responses are spatially consistent, providing an opportunity to quantify the effect of temperature in the catchment-scale. We demonstrate our approach in the East River Watershed of the Upper Colorado River Basin, including Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, where the changes in plant communities and their dynamics have been extensively documented. Results indicate that temperature - particularly spring temperature - has a significant control not only on the timing of snowmelt, plant NDVI and peak flow but also on the magnitude of peak NDVI, peak flow and annual discharge. Monthly temperature in spring explains the variability of snowmelt by the equivalent standard deviation of 3.4-4.4 days, and total discharge by 10-11%. In addition, the high correlation among June temperature, peak NDVI and annual discharge suggests a primary role of spring evapotranspiration on plant community phenology, productivity, and streamflow volume. On the other hand, summer monsoon precipitation does not contribute significantly to annual discharge, further emphasizing the importance of snowmelt. This approach is mostly based on a set of datasets typically available throughout the US, providing a powerful approach to link remote sensing techniques with long-term monitoring of temperature, snowfall, plant, and streamflow dynamics.

[Effects of climate change on flax development and yield in Guyuan of Ningxia, Northwest China].

PubMed

Li, Shu-Zhen; Sun, Lin-Li; Ma, Yu-Ping; Ma, Yu-Ping; Xu, Yu-Dong; E, You-Hao

2014-10-01

Based on variations of the annual mean temperature and precipitation analyzed using ob- servation data in Guyuan of Ningxia, the effects of climate change on the local flax developmental process and yield were investigated. The results showed that the annual mean temperature had an increasing trend (0.3 °C · (10 a)-1) and the annual precipitation had a decreasing trend (-20 mm · (10 a) -1) from 1957 to 2012. While the increasing trend of mean temperature during growing season of flax was more obviously than that of the annual temperature, the decreasing trend of precipitation during growing season was similar to that of annual precipitation. With temperature increasing and precipitation decreasing, the flax development rate was accelerated, resulting in the reduced growing period. Seedling stage was advanced 0.7 d with 1 °C increase in temperature during the period from sowing to seedling emergence. The duration from seedling emergence to two pairs of needles was shortened by 0.8 d with 1 °C increase in temperature and 0.1 d with 1 mm decrease in precipitation. Maturity stage was advanced 1.8 d with 1 °C increase in temperature and 0.1 d with 1 mm decrease in precipitation during the period from technical maturity to maturity. The flax development was accelerated because of temperature increasing and precipitation decreasing in the vegetative growth phase, which was one of the main causes of flax yield reduction year by year. Meanwhile, flower bud differentiation and pollination of flax were influenced by temperature increasing in the reproductive growth phase, which would affect the number of capsules and the seed setting rate per plant and lead to the decrease of flax yield. Therefore, adjusting plant structure and enlarging the planting area of late or middle-late variety were the important measures to reduce the effects of climate change on local flax production.

Extraordinary range expansion in a common bat: the potential roles of climate change and urbanisation.

PubMed

Ancillotto, L; Santini, L; Ranc, N; Maiorano, L; Russo, D

2016-04-01

Urbanisation and climate change are two global change processes that affect animal distributions, posing critical threats to biodiversity. Due to its versatile ecology and synurbic habits, Kuhl's pipistrelle (Pipistrellus kuhlii) offers a unique opportunity to explore the relative effects of climate change and urbanisation on species distributions. In a climate change scenario, this typically Mediterranean species is expected to expand its range in response to increasing temperatures. We collected 25,132 high-resolution occurrence records from P. kuhlii European range between 1980 and 2013 and modelled the species' distribution with a multi-temporal approach, using three bioclimatic variables and one proxy of urbanisation. Temperature in the coldest quarter of the year was the most important factor predicting the presence of P. kuhlii and showed an increasing trend in the study period; mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality were also relevant, but to a lower extent. Although urbanisation increased in recently colonised areas, it had little effect on the species' presence predictability. P. kuhlii expanded its geographical range by about 394 % in the last four decades, a process that can be interpreted as a response to climate change.

Extraordinary range expansion in a common bat: the potential roles of climate change and urbanisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ancillotto, L.; Santini, L.; Ranc, N.; Maiorano, L.; Russo, D.

2016-04-01

Urbanisation and climate change are two global change processes that affect animal distributions, posing critical threats to biodiversity. Due to its versatile ecology and synurbic habits, Kuhl's pipistrelle ( Pipistrellus kuhlii) offers a unique opportunity to explore the relative effects of climate change and urbanisation on species distributions. In a climate change scenario, this typically Mediterranean species is expected to expand its range in response to increasing temperatures. We collected 25,132 high-resolution occurrence records from P. kuhlii European range between 1980 and 2013 and modelled the species' distribution with a multi-temporal approach, using three bioclimatic variables and one proxy of urbanisation. Temperature in the coldest quarter of the year was the most important factor predicting the presence of P. kuhlii and showed an increasing trend in the study period; mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality were also relevant, but to a lower extent. Although urbanisation increased in recently colonised areas, it had little effect on the species' presence predictability. P. kuhlii expanded its geographical range by about 394 % in the last four decades, a process that can be interpreted as a response to climate change.

Effects of local factors and climate on permafrost conditions and distribution in Beiluhe basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.

PubMed

Yin, Guoan; Niu, Fujun; Lin, Zhanju; Luo, Jing; Liu, Minghao

2017-03-01

Beiluhe basin is underlain by warm and ice-rich permafrost, and covered by vegetation and soils characteristic of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A field monitoring network was established to investigate permafrost conditions and to assess potential impacts of local factors and climate change. This paper describes the spatial variations in permafrost conditions from instrumented boreholes, controlling environmental factors, and recent thermal evolution of permafrost in the basin. The study area was divided into 10 ecotypes using satellite imagery based classification. The field investigations and cluster analysis of ground temperatures indicated that permafrost underlies most of the ground in swamp meadow, undisturbed alpine meadow, degrading alpine meadow, and desert alpine grassland, but is absent in other cover types. Permafrost-ecotope relations examined over a 2-year (2014-2016) period indicated that: (i) ground surface temperatures varied largely among ecotopes; (ii) annual mean ground temperatures ranged from -1.5 to 0°C in permafrost, indicating sensitive permafrost conditions; (iii) active-layer thicknesses ranged from 1.4m to 3.4m; (iv) ground ice content at the top of permafrost is high, but the active-layer soil is relatively dry. Long-term climate warming has driven thermal changes to permafrost, but ground surface characteristics and soil moisture content strongly influence the ground thermal state. These factors control local-scale spatial variations in permafrost conditions. The warm permafrost in the basin is commonly in thermal disequilibrium, and is sensitive to future climate change. Active-layer thicknesses have increased by at least 42cm and the mean annual ground temperatures have increased by up to 0.2°C in the past 10years over the basin. A permafrost distribution map was produced based on ecotypes, suggesting that permafrost underlies 64% of the study region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Turnover of Grassland Roots in Mountain Ecosystems Revealed by Their Radiocarbon Signature: Role of Temperature and Management

PubMed Central

Leifeld, Jens; Meyer, Stefanie; Budge, Karen; Sebastia, Maria Teresa; Zimmermann, Michael; Fuhrer, Juerg

2015-01-01

Root turnover is an important carbon flux component in grassland ecosystems because it replenishes substantial parts of carbon lost from soil via heterotrophic respiration and leaching. Among the various methods to estimate root turnover, the root’s radiocarbon signature has rarely been applied to grassland soils previously, although the value of this approach is known from studies in forest soils. In this paper, we utilize the root’s radiocarbon signatures, at 25 plots, in mountain grasslands of the montane to alpine zone of Europe. We place the results in context of a global data base on root turnover and discuss driving factors. Root turnover rates were similar to those of a subsample of the global data, comprising a similar temperature range, but measured with different approaches, indicating that the radiocarbon method gives reliable, plausible and comparable results. Root turnover rates (0.06–1.0 y-1) scaled significantly and exponentially with mean annual temperatures. Root turnover rates indicated no trend with soil depth. The temperature sensitivity was significantly higher in mountain grassland, compared to the global data set, suggesting additional factors influencing root turnover. Information on management intensity from the 25 plots reveals that root turnover may be accelerated under intensive and moderate management compared to low intensity or semi-natural conditions. Because management intensity, in the studied ecosystems, co-varied with temperature, estimates on root turnover, based on mean annual temperature alone, may be biased. A greater recognition of management as a driver for root dynamics is warranted when effects of climatic change on belowground carbon dynamics are studied in mountain grasslands. PMID:25734640

Phenotypic plasticity of life-history traits of a calanoid copepod in a tropical lake: Is the magnitude of thermal plasticity related to thermal variability?

PubMed

Ortega-Mayagoitia, Elizabeth; Hernández-Martínez, Osvaldo; Ciros-Pérez, Jorge

2018-01-01

According to the Climatic Variability Hypothesis [CVH], thermal plasticity should be wider in organisms from temperate environments, but is unlikely to occur in tropical latitudes where temperature fluctuations are narrow. In copepods, food availability has been suggested as the main driver of phenotypic variability in adult size if the range of temperature change is less than 14°C. Leptodiaptomus garciai is a calanoid copepod inhabiting Lake Alchichica, a monomictic, tropical lake in Mexico that experiences regular, narrow temperature fluctuations but wide changes in phytoplankton availability. We investigated whether the seasonal fluctuations of temperature and food produce phenotypic variation in the life-history traits of this tropical species. We sampled L. garciai throughout a year and measured female size, egg size and number, and hatching success, along with temperature and phytoplankton biomass. The amplitude of the plastic responses was estimated with the Phenotypic Plasticity Index. This index was also computed for a published dataset of 84 copepod populations to look if there is a relationship between the amplitude of the phenotypic plasticity of adult size and seasonal change in temperature. The temperature annual range in Lake Alchichica was 3.2°C, whereas phytoplankton abundance varied 17-fold. A strong pattern of thermal plasticity in egg size and adult female size followed the inverse relationship with temperature commonly observed in temperate environments, although its adaptive value was not demonstrated. Egg number, relative reproductive effort and number of nauplii per female were clearly plastic to food availability, allowing organisms to increase their fitness. When comparing copepod species from different latitudes, we found that the magnitude of thermal plasticity of adult size is not related to the range of temperature variation; furthermore, thermal plasticity exists even in environments of limited temperature variation, where the response is more intense compared to temperate populations.

Phenotypic plasticity of life-history traits of a calanoid copepod in a tropical lake: Is the magnitude of thermal plasticity related to thermal variability?

PubMed Central

Hernández-Martínez, Osvaldo; Ciros-Pérez, Jorge

2018-01-01

According to the Climatic Variability Hypothesis [CVH], thermal plasticity should be wider in organisms from temperate environments, but is unlikely to occur in tropical latitudes where temperature fluctuations are narrow. In copepods, food availability has been suggested as the main driver of phenotypic variability in adult size if the range of temperature change is less than 14°C. Leptodiaptomus garciai is a calanoid copepod inhabiting Lake Alchichica, a monomictic, tropical lake in Mexico that experiences regular, narrow temperature fluctuations but wide changes in phytoplankton availability. We investigated whether the seasonal fluctuations of temperature and food produce phenotypic variation in the life-history traits of this tropical species. We sampled L. garciai throughout a year and measured female size, egg size and number, and hatching success, along with temperature and phytoplankton biomass. The amplitude of the plastic responses was estimated with the Phenotypic Plasticity Index. This index was also computed for a published dataset of 84 copepod populations to look if there is a relationship between the amplitude of the phenotypic plasticity of adult size and seasonal change in temperature. The temperature annual range in Lake Alchichica was 3.2°C, whereas phytoplankton abundance varied 17-fold. A strong pattern of thermal plasticity in egg size and adult female size followed the inverse relationship with temperature commonly observed in temperate environments, although its adaptive value was not demonstrated. Egg number, relative reproductive effort and number of nauplii per female were clearly plastic to food availability, allowing organisms to increase their fitness. When comparing copepod species from different latitudes, we found that the magnitude of thermal plasticity of adult size is not related to the range of temperature variation; furthermore, thermal plasticity exists even in environments of limited temperature variation, where the response is more intense compared to temperate populations. PMID:29708999

Assessment of Air Temperature Trends in the Source Region of Yellow River and Its Sub-Basins, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Mudassar; Wen, Jun; Wang, Xin; Lan, Yongchao; Tian, Hui; Anjum, Muhammad Naveed; Adnan, Muhammad

2018-02-01

Changes in climatic variables at the sub-basins scale (having different features of land cover) are crucial for planning, development and designing of water resources infrastructure in the context of climate change. Accordingly, to explore the features of climate changes in sub-basins of the Source Region of Yellow River (SRYR), absolute changes and trends of temperature variables, maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tavg) and diurnal temperature range (DTR), were analyzed annually and seasonally by using daily observed air temperature dataset from 1965 to 2014. Results showed that annual Tmax, Tmin and Tavg for the SRYR were experiencing warming trends respectively at the rate of 0.28, 0.36 and 0.31°C (10 yr)-1. In comparison with the 1st period (1965-1989), more absolute changes and trends towards increasing were observed during the 2nd period (1990-2014). Apart from Tangnaihai (a low altitude sub-basin), these increasing trends and changes seemed more significant in other basins with highest magnitude during winter. Among sub-basins the increasing trends were more dominant in Huangheyan compared to other sub-basins. The largest increase magnitude of Tmin, 1.24 and 1.18°C (10 yr)-1, occurred in high altitude sub-basins Jimai and Huangheyan, respectively, while the smallest increase magnitude of 0.23°C (10 yr)-1 occurred in a low altitude sub-basin Tangnaihai. The high elevation difference in Tangnaihai probably was the main reason for the less increase in the magnitude of Tmin. In the last decade, smaller magnitude of trend for all temperature variables signified the signal of cooling in the region. Overall, changes of temperature variables had significant spatial and seasonal variations. It implies that seasonal variations of runoff might be greater or different for each sub-basin.

Negative response of photosynthesis to natural and projected high seawater temperatures estimated by pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry in a temperate coral

PubMed Central

Caroselli, Erik; Falini, Giuseppe; Goffredo, Stefano; Dubinsky, Zvy; Levy, Oren

2015-01-01

Balanophyllia europaea is a shallow water solitary zooxanthellate coral, endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. Extensive field studies across a latitudinal temperature gradient highlight detrimental effects of rising temperatures on its growth, demography, and skeletal characteristics, suggesting that depression of photosynthesis at high temperatures might cause these negative effects. Here we test this hypothesis by analyzing, by means of pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry, the photosynthetic efficiency of B. europaea specimens exposed in aquaria to the annual range of temperatures experienced in the field (13, 18, and 28°C), and two extreme temperatures expected for 2100 as a consequence of global warming (29 and 32°C). The indicators of photosynthetic performance analyzed (maximum and effective quantum yield) showed that maximum efficiency was reached at 20.0–21.6°C, slightly higher than the annual mean temperature in the field (18°C). Photosynthetic efficiency decreased from 20.0 to 13°C and even more strongly from 21.6 to 32°C. An unusual form of bleaching was observed, with a maximum zooxanthellae density at 18°C that strongly decreased from 18 to 32°C. Chlorophyll a concentration per zooxanthellae cell showed an opposite trend as it was minimal at 18°C and increased from 18 to 32°C. Since the areal chlorophyll concentration is the product of the zooxanthellae density and its cellular content, these trends resulted in a homogeneous chlorophyll concentration per coral surface across temperature treatments. This confirms that B. europaea photosynthesis is progressively depressed at temperatures >21.6°C, supporting previous hypotheses raised by the studies on growth and demography of this species. This study also confirms the threats posed to this species by the ongoing seawater warming. PMID:26582993

Monitoring Forage Production of California Rangeland Using Remote Sensing Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Jin, Y.; Dahlgren, R. A.; O'Geen, A. T.; Roche, L. M.; Smith, A. M.; Flavell, D.

2016-12-01

Pastures and rangeland cover more than 10 million hectares in California's coastal and inland foothill regions, providing feeds to livestock and important ecosystem services. Forage production in California has a large year-to-year variation due to large inter-annual and seasonal variabilities in precipitation and temperature. It also varies spatially due to the variability in climate and soils. Our goal is to develop a robust and cost-effective tool to map the near-real-time and historical forage productivity in California using remote sensing observations from Landsat and MODIS satellites. We used a Monteith's eco-physiological plant growth theory: the aboveground net primary production (ANPP) is determined by (i) the absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) and the (ii) light use efficiency (LUE): ANPP = APAR * LUEmax * f(T) * f(SM), where LUEmax is the maximum LUE, and f(T) and f(SM) are the temperature and soil moisture constrains on LUE. APAR was estimated with Landsat and MODIS vegetation index (VI), and LUE was calibrated with a statewide point dataset of peak forage production measurements at 75 annual rangeland sites. A non-linear optimization was performed to derive maximum LUE and the parameters for temperature and soil moisture regulation on LUE by minimizing the differences between the estimated and measured ANPP. Our results showed the satellite-derived annual forage production estimates correlated well withcontemporaneous in-situ forage measurements and captured both the spatial and temporal productivity patterns of forage productivity well. This remote sensing algorithm can be further improved as new field measurements become available. This tool will have a great importance in maintaining a sustainable range industry by providing key knowledge for ranchers and the stakeholders to make managerial decisions.

Soil temperature investigations using satellite acquired thermal-infrared data in semi-arid regions. Thesis. Final Report; [Utah

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Day, R. L.; Petersen, G. W.

1983-01-01

Thermal-infrared data from the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission satellite were used to map the spatial distribution of diurnal surface temperatures and to estimate mean annual soil temperatures (MAST) and annual surface temperature amplitudes (AMP) in semi-arid east central Utah. Diurnal data with minimal snow and cloud cover were selected for five dates throughout a yearly period and geometrically co-registered. Rubber-sheet stretching was aided by the WARP program which allowed preview of image transformations. Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures were averaged to generation average daily temperature (ADT) data set for each of the five dates. Five ADT values for each pixel were used to fit a sine curve describing the theoretical annual surface temperature response as defined by a solution of a one-dimensinal heat flow equation. Linearization of the equation produced estimates of MAST and AMP plus associated confidence statistics. MAST values were grouped into classes and displayed on a color video screen. Diurnal surface temperatures and MAST were primarily correlated with elevation.

The implications of rebasing global mean temperature timeseries for GCM based climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2017-04-01

Global climate and earth system models are assessed by comparison with observations through a number of metrics. The InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights in particular their ability to reproduce "general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes over the historical period" [1,2] and to simulate "a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend" [3]. This focus on annual mean global mean temperature (hereafter GMT) change is presented as an important element in demonstrating the relevance of these models for climate projections. Any new model or new model version whose historic simulations fail to reproduce the "general features " and 20th century trends is likely therefore to undergo further tuning. Thus this focus could have implications for model development. Here we consider a formal interpretation of "general features" and discuss the implications of this approach to model assessment and intercomparison, for the interpretation of GCM projections. Following the IPCC, we interpret a major element of "general features" as being the slow timescale response to external forcings. (Shorter timescale behaviour such as the response to volcanic eruptions are also elements of "general features" but are not considered here.) Also following the IPCC, we consider only GMT anomalies i.e. changes with respect to some period. Since the models have absolute temperatures which range over about 3K (roughly observed GMT +/- 1.5K) this means their timeseries (and the observations) are rebased. We present timeseries of the slow timescale response of the CMIP5 models rebased to late-20th century temperatures and to mid-19th century temperatures. We provide a mathematical interpretation of this approach to model assessment and discuss two consequences. First is a separation of scales which limits the degree to which sub-global behaviour can feedback on the global response. Second, is an implication of linearity in the GMT response (to the extent that the slow-timescale response of the historic simulations is consistent with observations, and given their uncertainties). For each individual model these consequences only apply over the range of absolute temperatures simulated by the model in historic simulations. Taken together, however, they imply consequences over a much wider range of GMTs. The analysis suggests that this aspect of model evaluation risks providing a model development pressure which acts against a wide exploration of physically plausible responses; in particular against an exploration of potentially globally significant nonlinear responses and feedbacks. [1] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary: Stocker et al. 2013. [2] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 9 - "Evaluation of Climate Models": Flato et al. 2013. [3] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC, 2013.

Co-occurrence of viruses and mosquitoes at the vectors' optimal climate range: An underestimated risk to temperate regions?

PubMed

Blagrove, Marcus S C; Caminade, Cyril; Waldmann, Elisabeth; Sutton, Elizabeth R; Wardeh, Maya; Baylis, Matthew

2017-06-01

Mosquito-borne viruses have been estimated to cause over 100 million cases of human disease annually. Many methodologies have been developed to help identify areas most at risk from transmission of these viruses. However, generally, these methodologies focus predominantly on the effects of climate on either the vectors or the pathogens they spread, and do not consider the dynamic interaction between the optimal conditions for both vector and virus. Here, we use a new approach that considers the complex interplay between the optimal temperature for virus transmission, and the optimal climate for the mosquito vectors. Using published geolocated data we identified temperature and rainfall ranges in which a number of mosquito vectors have been observed to co-occur with West Nile virus, dengue virus or chikungunya virus. We then investigated whether the optimal climate for co-occurrence of vector and virus varies between "warmer" and "cooler" adapted vectors for the same virus. We found that different mosquito vectors co-occur with the same virus at different temperatures, despite significant overlap in vector temperature ranges. Specifically, we found that co-occurrence correlates with the optimal climatic conditions for the respective vector; cooler-adapted mosquitoes tend to co-occur with the same virus in cooler conditions than their warmer-adapted counterparts. We conclude that mosquitoes appear to be most able to transmit virus in the mosquitoes' optimal climate range, and hypothesise that this may be due to proportionally over-extended vector longevity, and other increased fitness attributes, within this optimal range. These results suggest that the threat posed by vector-competent mosquito species indigenous to temperate regions may have been underestimated, whilst the threat arising from invasive tropical vectors moving to cooler temperate regions may be overestimated.

Carbon gas exchange at a southern Rocky Mountain wetland, 1996-1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wickland, K.P.; Striegl, Robert G.; Mast, M.A.; Clow, D.W.

2001-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) exchange between the atmosphere and a subalpine wetland located in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, at 3200 m elevation were measured during 1996-1998. Respiration, net CO2 flux, and CH4 flux were measured using the closed chamber method during snow-free periods and using gas diffusion calculations during snow-covered periods. The ranges of measured flux were 1.2-526 mmol CO2 m-2 d-1 (respiration), -1056-100 mmol CO2 m-2 d-1 (net CO2 exchange), and 0.1-36.8 mmol CH4 m-2 d-1 (a positive value represents efflux to the atmosphere). Respiration and CH4 emission were significantly correlated with 5 cm soil temperature. Annual respiration and CH4 emission were modeled by applying the flux-temperature relationships to a continuous soil temperature record during 1996-1998. Gross photosynthesis was modeled using a hyperbolic equation relating gross photosynthesis, photon flux density, and soil temperature. Modeled annual flux estimates indicate that the wetland was a net source of carbon gas to the atmosphere each of the three years: 8.9 mol C m-2 yr-1 in 1996, 9.5 mol C m-2 yr-1 in 1997, and 9.6 mol C m-2 yr-1 in 1998. This contrasts with the long-term carbon accumulation of ???0.7 mol m-2 yr-1 determined from 14C analyses of a peat core collected from the wetland.

Climate change and occurrence of diarrheal diseases: evolving facts from Nepal.

PubMed

Bhandari, G P; Gurung, S; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L

2012-09-01

Climate change is becoming huge threat to health especially for those from developing countries. Diarrhea as one of the major diseases linked with changing climate. This study has been carried out to assess the relationship between climatic variables, and malaria and to find out the range of non-climatic factors that can confound the relationship of climate change and human health. It is a Retrospective study where data of past ten years relating to climate and disease (diarrhea) variable were analyzed. The study conducted trend analysis based on correlation. The climate related data were obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. Time Series analysis was also being conducted. The trend of number of yearly cases of diarrhea has been increasing from 1998 to 2001 after which the cases remain constant till 2006.The climate types in Jhapa vary from humid to per-humid based on the moisture index and Mega-thermal based on thermal efficiency. The mean annual temperature is increasing at an average of 0.04 °C/year with maximum temperature increasing faster than the minimum temperature. The annual total rainfall of Jhapa is decreasing at an average rate of -7.1 mm/year. Statistically significant correlation between diarrheal cases occurrence and temperature and rainfall has been observed. However, climate variables were not the significant predictors of diarrheal occurrence. The association among climate variables and diarrheal disease occurrence cannot be neglected which has been showed by this study. Further prospective longitudinal study adjusting influence of non-climatic factors is recommended.

An annual model of SSM/I radiobrightness for dry soil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Yuei-An; England, A. W.

1992-01-01

An annual model is presented of the temperature structure within a homogeneous, dry soil halfspace that is subject to both diurnal and annual insolation, radiant heating from the atmosphere, sensible heat exchange with the atmosphere, and radiant cooling. The thermal constitutive properties of the soil are assumed to be constant so that the heat flow equation can be solved analytically. For computational economy, a variable time interval Laplace transform method is developed to predict the temperature.

The isolation of the temperature effect on branched GDGT distribution in an elevation transect of the Eastern Cordillera, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, V. J.; Shanahan, T. M.; Saylor, J.; Horton, B. K.

2012-12-01

Recently, the distribution of branched GDGT's (glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) has been proposed as a proxy for temperature and pH in soils via the MBT/CBT index, and has been used to reconstruct past temperature variations in a number of settings ranging from marine sediments to loess deposits and paleosols. However, empirical calibrations of the MBT/CBT index against temperature show significant scatter, leading to uncertainties as large as ±2 degrees C . In this study we seek to add to and improve upon the existing soil calibration using a new set of samples spanning a large elevation (and temperature) gradient in the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia. At each site we buried temperature loggers to constrain the diurnal and seasonal temperature experienced by each soil sample. Located only 5 degrees north of the equator, our sites experience a very small seasonal temperature variation - most sites display an annual range of less than 4 degrees C. In addition, the pH of all of the soils is almost invariant across the transect, with the vast majority of samples having pH's between 4 and 5. This dataset represents a "best-case" scenario - small variations in seasonal temperature, pH, and well-constrained instrumental data - which allow us to examine the brGDGT-temperature relationship in the absence of major confounding factors such as seasonality and soil chemistry. Interestingly, the relationship between temperature and the MBT/CBT index is not improved using this dataset, suggesting that these factors are not the cause of the anomalous scatter in the calibration dataset. However, we find that using other parameterizations for the regression equation instead of the MBT and CBT indices, the errors in our temperature estimates are significantly reduced.

Continuous selection pressure to improve temperature acclimation of Tisochrysis lutea

PubMed Central

Grimaud, Ghjuvan; Rumin, Judith; Bougaran, Gaël; Talec, Amélie; Gachelin, Manon; Boutoute, Marc; Pruvost, Eric; Bernard, Olivier; Sciandra, Antoine

2017-01-01

Temperature plays a key role in outdoor industrial cultivation of microalgae. Improving the thermal tolerance of microalgae to both daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations can thus contribute to increase their annual productivity. A long term selection experiment was carried out to increase the thermal niche (temperature range for which the growth is possible) of a neutral lipid overproducing strain of Tisochrysis lutea. The experimental protocol consisted to submit cells to daily variations of temperature for 7 months. The stress intensity, defined as the amplitude of daily temperature variations, was progressively increased along successive selection cycles. Only the amplitude of the temperature variations were increased, the daily average temperature was kept constant along the experiment. This protocol resulted in a thermal niche increase by 3°C (+16.5%), with an enhancement by 9% of the maximal growth rate. The selection process also affected T. lutea physiology, with a feature generally observed for ‘cold-temperature’ type of adaptation. The amount of total and neutral lipids was significantly increased, and eventually productivity was increased by 34%. This seven month selection experiment, carried out in a highly dynamic environment, challenges some of the hypotheses classically advanced to explain the temperature response of microalgae. PMID:28902878

Rapid Development of Adaptive, Climate-Driven Clinal Variation in Seed Mass in the Invasive Annual Forb Echium plantagineum L.

PubMed Central

Konarzewski, Tara K.; Murray, Brad R.; Godfree, Robert C.

2012-01-01

We examined adaptive clinal variation in seed mass among populations of an invasive annual species, Echium plantagineum, in response to climatic selection. We collected seeds from 34 field populations from a 1,000 km long temperature and rainfall gradient across the species' introduced range in south-eastern Australia. Seeds were germinated, grown to reproductive age under common glasshouse conditions, and progeny seeds were harvested and weighed. Analyses showed that seed mass was significantly related to climatic factors, with populations sourced from hotter, more arid sites producing heavier seeds than populations from cooler and wetter sites. Seed mass was not related to edaphic factors. We also found that seed mass was significantly related to both longitude and latitude with each degree of longitude west and latitude north increasing seed mass by around 2.5% and 4% on average. There was little evidence that within-population or between-population variation in seed mass varied in a systematic manner across the study region. Our findings provide compelling evidence for development of a strong cline in seed mass across the geographic range of a widespread and highly successful invasive annual forb. Since large seed mass is known to provide reproductive assurance for plants in arid environments, our results support the hypothesis that the fitness and range potential of invasive species can increase as a result of genetic divergence of populations along broad climatic gradients. In E. plantagineum population-level differentiation has occurred in 150 years or less, indicating that the adaptation process can be rapid. PMID:23284621

Statistical analysis of the mesospheric inversion layers over two symmetrical tropical sites: Réunion (20.8° S, 55.5° E) and Mauna Loa (19.5° N, 155.6° W)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bègue, Nelson; Mbatha, Nkanyiso; Bencherif, Hassan; Tato Loua, René; Sivakumar, Venkataraman; Leblanc, Thierry

2017-11-01

In this investigation a statistical analysis of the characteristics of mesospheric inversion layers (MILs) over tropical regions is presented. This study involves the analysis of 16 years of lidar observations recorded at Réunion (20.8° S, 55.5° E) and 21 years of lidar observations recorded at Mauna Loa (19.5° N, 155.6° W) together with SABER observations at these two locations. MILs appear in 10 and 9.3 % of the observed temperature profiles recorded by Rayleigh lidar at Réunion and Mauna Loa, respectively. The parameters defining MILs show a semi-annual cycle over the two selected sites with maxima occurring near the equinoxes and minima occurring during the solstices. Over both sites, the maximum mean amplitude is observed in April and October, and this corresponds to a value greater than 35 K. According to lidar observations, the maximum and minimum mean of the base height ranged from 79 to 80.5 km and from 76 to 77.5 km, respectively. The MILs at Réunion appear on average ˜ 1 km thinner and ˜ 1 km lower, with an amplitude of ˜ 2 K higher than Mauna Loa. Generally, the statistical results for these two tropical locations as presented in this investigation are in fairly good agreement with previous studies. When compared to lidar measurements, on average SABER observations show MILs with greater amplitude, thickness and base altitudes of 4 K, 0.75 and 1.1 km, respectively. Taking into account the temperature error by SABER in the mesosphere, it can therefore be concluded that the measurements obtained from lidar and SABER observations are in significant agreement. The frequency spectrum analysis based on the lidar profiles and the 60-day averaged profile from SABER confirms the presence of the semi-annual oscillation where the magnitude maximum is found to coincide with the height range of the temperature inversion zone. This connection between increases in the semi-annual component close to the inversion zone is in agreement with most previously reported studies over tropics based on satellite observations. Results presented in this study confirm through the use of the ground-based Rayleigh lidar at Réunion and Mauna Loa that the semi-annual oscillation contributes to the formation of MILs over the tropical region.

Effects of snow persistence on streamflow generation in mountain regions of the western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, J. C.; Kampf, S. K.

2015-12-01

In mountain regions, both snowpack trend analyses and modeling studies suggest that streamflow generation is sensitive to loss of snow, yet we still lack understanding of where the most snow-sensitive regions are located. Snow persistence (SP), defined as the fraction of year that an area is snow-covered, is a useful variable for identifying snow-sensitive regions because it is easily observed globally using remote sensing. SP can affect streamflow generation by shifting the timing and magnitude of water input. All other factors being equal, we hypothesize that declining SP decreases the ratio of streamflow to precipitation (runoff ratio), and the magnitude of this effect is greater in arid climates than in humid climates. To evaluate whether streamflow generation declines with decreasing SP, we used the MODSCAG fractional snow cover product and 68 USGS reference catchments across five mountainous regions of the Western U.S. to compute annual and mean annual SP and discharge for water years 2000 to 2011. We used PRISM precipitation to compute the annual and mean annual runoff ratio for each catchment. Results show strong positive relationships between annual SP and annual runoff ratio in the Northern Rockies, Southern Rockies, and Basin and Range, where annual precipitation ranges from 0.25 m at low elevations in the Basin and Range to 2.5 m at high elevations in the Northern Rockies. Mean annual runoff ratios for these regions range from 0.32-0.53, and they also increase with mean annual SP. No relationships between annual SP and runoff ratios are evident in the wetter North Cascades and Sierra Nevada ranges, where annual precipitation ranges from 0.44 m in the low elevation Sierras to 4.8 m in the high elevation Cascades. Mean annual runoff ratios for these regions are 0.53-0.87 and show no clear dependence on SP. These results suggest that streamflow generation in arid regions may be most sensitive to loss of persistent winter snow.

Temperature and vegetation effects on soil organic carbon quality along a forested mean annual temperature gradient in North America

Treesearch

Cinzia Fissore; Christian P. Giardina; Randall K. Kolka; Carl C. Trettin; Gary M. King; Martin F. Jurgensen; Christopher D. Barton; S. Douglas McDowell

2008-01-01

Both climate and plant species are hypothesized to influence soil organic carbon (SOC) quality, but accurate prediction of how SOC process rates respond to global change will require an improved understanding of how SOC quality varies with mean annual temperature (MAT) and forest type. We investigated SOC quality in paired hardwood and pine stands growing in coarse...

Assessing the Implications of Changing Extreme Value Distributions of Weather on Carbon and Water Cycling in Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2011-12-01

As the climate warms, it is generally acknowledged that the number and magnitude of extreme weather events will increase. We examined an ecophysiological model's responses to precipitation and temperature anomalies in relation to the mean and variance of annual precipitation along a pronounced precipitation gradient from eastern to western Kansas. This natural gradient creates a template of potential responses for both the mean and variance of annual precipitation to compare the timescales of carbon and water fluxes. Using data from several Ameriflux sites (KZU and KFS) and a third eddy covariance tower (K4B) along the gradient, BIOME-BGC was used to characterize water and carbon cycle responses to extreme weather events. Changes in the extreme value distributions were based on SRES A1B and A2 scenarios using an ensemble mean of 21 GCMs for the region, downscaled using a stochastic weather generator. We focused on changing the timing and magnitude of precipitation and altering the diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges. Biome-BGC was then forced with daily output from the stochastic weather generator, and we examined how potential changes in these extreme value distributions impact carbon and water cycling at the sites across the Kansas precipitation gradient at time scales ranging from daily to interannual. To decompose the time scales of response, we applied a wavelet based information theory analysis approach. Results indicate impacts in soil moisture memory and carbon allocation processes, which vary in response to both the mean and variance of precipitation along the precipitation gradient. These results suggest a more pronounced focus ecosystem responses to extreme events across a range of temporal scales in order to fully characterize the water and carbon cycle responses to global climate change.

The potential effects of climate change on the native vascular flora of North America. A preliminary climate envelopes analysis: Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morse, L.E.; Kutner, L.S.; Maddox, G.D.

1993-11-01

To assess the potential effects of global warming on the North American flora, the reported geographical distributions of the 15,148 native North American vascular plant species were matched with climate data for 194 geographical areas to estimate the current ``climate envelope`` for each species. Three methods of analysis were used to construct these envelopes, all based on the limits of mean annual temperatures currently experienced by each species within its present range. Published models of future climates predict a possible increase in mean annual temperatures of 3{degree}C (5.4{degree}F) within the next century. Assuming that species might be eliminated from areasmore » outside their present climate envelope, then about 7% to 11% of North America`s native plant species would be entirely out of their envelopes in a +3{degree}C climate. Rare species would be disproportionately affected -- between 10% and 18% of these species would be entirely out of their climate envelopes. However, some rare species may be able to persist at their present sites due to the availability of suitable microhabitats or genetic variation in climate tolerances. Of the more common species, only about 1% to 2% would be vulnerable in a +3{degree}C climate. The local effects of climate change on plant species would vary considerably if species withdraw from the southern or low-elevation portions of their ranges. Species may expand their ranges northwards as new areas become climatically suitable for them, producing significant changes in local floras. Species vary in their ability to make such migrations, depending upon limitations imposed by dispersal ability and/or specialized habitat requirements. An estimate of dispersibility suggests that species with narrow climate envelopes tend to lack characteristics promoting mobility.« less

Reconstruction of Monsoon Driven South China Sea Surface Ocean Circulation using Coral Δ14C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodkin, N.; Bolton, A.; Karnauskas, K. B.; Hughen, K. A.; Griffin, S.; Druffel, E. R. M.

2016-12-01

The need to improve our understanding of annual and decadal climate behavior in the South China Sea is increasingly important, as this region includes the largest population density globally but encompasses few climate records. Here we present a record of annually resolved Δ14C from a coral collected off the coast of Nha Trang, Vietnam (12°12'49.90″N, 109°18'17.51″E), that reveals a significant correlation to regional winter sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST), and extends back more than 400 years. Coral Δ14C during thermonuclear bomb testing indicates the presence of wet-season (summer) upwelling, demonstrated by low Δ14C values for both baseline and peak values relative to other records in the region (Bolton et al., 2016, Radiocarbon). However, annually resolved pre-bomb Δ14C correlates significantly to regional dry-season (winter) SLP and SST, indicating that annual variability is driven by changes to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and subsequent down-welling at this site. Spectral density is focused at 25, 11.8, 7, 4, and 3.2 years per cycle reflecting a range of influences on surface advection variability including the EAWM (D'Arrigo et al., 2005, GRL) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Spectral power at all of these frequencies decreases following the Little Ice Age ( 1600-1850?) to today, indicating that wind driven surface advection was more variable when hemispheric temperatures were cooler. Decadal variance in the past 100 years is significantly correlated to variance records of the Arctic Oscillation (AO, Thompson and Wallace, 1989, GRL), suggesting that increasing variance in the EAWM may be tied to increasing variance of the AO during the Little Ice Age and vice versa.

Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo

2008-05-01

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.

Winter fluxes of CO2 and CH4 from subalpine soils in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mast, M. Alisa; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Striegl, Robert G.; Clow, David W.

1998-01-01

Fluxes of CO2 and CH4 through a seasonal snowpack were measured in and adjacent to a subalpine wetland in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Gas diffusion through the snow was controlled by gas production or consumption in the soil and by physical snowpack properties. The snowpack insulated soils from cold midwinter air temperatures allowing microbial activity to continue through the winter. All soil types studied were net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere through the winter, whereas saturated soils in the wetland center were net emitters of CH4 and soils adjacent to the wetland were net CH4 consumers. Most sites showed similar temporal patterns in winter gas fluxes; the lowest fluxes occurred in early winter, and maximum fluxes occurred at the onset of snowmelt. Temporal changes in fluxes probably were related to changes in soil-moisture conditions and hydrology because soil temperatures were relatively constant under the snowpack. Average winter CO2 fluxes were 42.3, 31.2, and 14.6 mmol m−2 d−1 over dry, moist, and saturated soils, respectively, which accounted for 8 to 23% of the gross annual CO2emissions from these soils. Average winter CH4 fluxes were −0.016, 0.274, and 2.87 mmol m−2 d−1over dry, moist, and saturated soils, respectively. Microbial activity under snow cover accounted for 12% of the annual CH4 consumption in dry soils and 58 and 12% of the annual CH4 emitted from moist and saturated soils, respectively. The observed ranges in CO2 and CH4 flux through snow indicated that winter fluxes are an important part of the annual carbon budget in seasonally snow-covered terrains.

Plant community, primary productivity, and environmental conditions following wetland re-establishment in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, R.L.; Fujii, R.

2010-01-01

Wetland restoration can mitigate aerobic decomposition of subsided organic soils, as well as re-establish conditions favorable for carbon storage. Rates of carbon storage result from the balance of inputs and losses, both of which are affected by wetland hydrology. We followed the effect of water depth (25 and 55 cm) on the plant community, primary production, and changes in two re-established wetlands in the Sacramento San-Joaquin River Delta, California for 9 years after flooding to determine how relatively small differences in water depth affect carbon storage rates over time. To estimate annual carbon inputs, plant species cover, standing above- and below-ground plant biomass, and annual biomass turnover rates were measured, and allometric biomass models for Schoenoplectus (Scirpus) acutus and Typha spp., the emergent marsh dominants, were developed. As the wetlands developed, environmental factors, including water temperature, depth, and pH were measured. Emergent marsh vegetation colonized the shallow wetland more rapidly than the deeper wetland. This is important to potential carbon storage because emergent marsh vegetation is more productive, and less labile, than submerged and floating vegetation. Primary production of emergent marsh vegetation ranged from 1.3 to 3.2 kg of carbon per square meter annually; and, mid-season standing live biomass represented about half of the annual primary production. Changes in species composition occurred in both submerged and emergent plant communities as the wetlands matured. Water depth, temperature, and pH were lower in areas with emergent marsh vegetation compared to submerged vegetation, all of which, in turn, can affect carbon cycling and storage rates. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Climatic interpretation of the length fluctuations of Glaciar Frías, North Patagonia, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leclercq, P. W.; Pitte, P.; Giesen, R. H.; Masiokas, M. H.; Oerlemans, J.

2011-10-01

We explore the climatic information contained in the record of length fluctuations of Glaciar Frías, in the North Patagonian Andes of Argentina. This record is one of the longest and most detailed glacier records in southern South America, starting in 1639. In order to interpret the length variations of Glaciar Frías since the maximum Little Ice Age extent in 1639, we use a combination of a simplified surface energy-balance model to calculate the glacier mass balance, and a flow-line model to account for the dynamical response of the glacier to changes in the climatic forcing. The overall retreat of the glacier observed over 1639-2009 is best explained by an annual mean temperature increase of 1.16 °C or a decrease in annual precipitation of 34%, most of which would have occurred during the 20th century. The glacier model is also forced with independent proxy-based reconstructions of precipitation and temperature, based on tree rings and a composition of documentary evidence, tree rings, sediments, corals, and ice cores. The uncertainties in the presently available proxy reconstructions are rather large, leading to a wide range in the modelled glacier length. Most of the observations lie within this range. However, in these reconstructions, the mid-17th century is too cold and the early 19th century ca. 0.7 °C too warm to explain the observed glacier lengths.

Atmospheric deposition of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans, and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls in the Kanto Region, Japan.

PubMed

Ogura, I; Masunaga, S; Nakanishi, J

2001-09-01

The atmospheric bulk (dry and wet) deposition of dioxins was investigated at four locations (Tokyo, Yokohama, Tsukuba, and Tanzawa) in the Kanto region (in Japan) over one year using a stainless-steel pot. Annual average polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/PCDF) deposition fluxes were estimated to be from 450 to 1300 ng/m2/yr, and the annual average TEQ fluxes from 5.7 to 17 ng-TEQ/m2/yr at the four locations. The PCDD/PCDF deposition flux was higher in winter than in summer. The deposition flux could be related to ambient temperature, particularly for less chlorinated PCDDs/PCDFs, while the deposition flux is not necessarily related to the amount of precipitation. The PCDD/PCDF deposition flux increased as the particle deposition flux increased, for the winter samples. Based on the ratio of the PCDD/PCDF deposition fluxes to the particle deposition fluxes, the contribution of the reentrainment of soil particles to the TEQ of PCDD/PCDF deposition was considered to be negligible in this region. Based on the air concentrations monitored near our deposition sampling points by the municipalities, the ratio of the annual deposition flux to the annual average air concentration was roughly estimated to be 0.082 cm/s. The range of deposition flux in the Kanto region was estimated to be from 1.5 to 31 (median: 9.8) ng-TEQ/m2/yr based on the range of air concentration data measured by the municipalities. The total annual deposition flux in the entire Kanto region was estimated to range from 50 to 900 g-TEQ/yr (median 320 g-TEQ/yr). This estimated flux was of the same order as the sum of estimated emissions from municipal solid waste incinerators and industrial waste incinerators in the Kanto region. The contributions of dioxin-like PCBs in Yokohama, Tsukuba, and Tanzawa depositions were less than 10% of the total TEQ; however, in Tokyo it was almost equal to or more than 50%.

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

2013-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As the magnitude of air temperatures increase in the four basins, peak flows decrease by larger amounts. If precipitation is held constant (no change from historical values), 17 to 26 percent decreases in peak flow occur at the four basins when temperature is increased by 7.2°F. If temperature is held constant, 26 to 38 percent increases in peak flow result from a 15-percent increase in precipitation. The largest decreases in peak flows at the four basins result from 15-percent decreases in precipitation combined with temperature increases of 10.8°F. The largest increases in peak flows generally result from 30-percent increases in precipitation combined with 3.6 °F decreases in temperatures. In many cases when temperature and precipitation both increase, small increases or decreases in annual daily maximum peak flows result. For likely changes projected for the northeastern United States for the middle of the 21st century (temperature increase of 3.6 °F and precipitation increases of 0 to 15 percent), peak-flow changes at the four coastal Maine basins in this study are modeled to be evenly distributed between increases and decreases of less than 25 percent. Peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs (equivalent to 2-year and 100-year recurrence interval peak flows, respectively) were calculated for the four basins in the study using the PRMS-modeled annual daily maximum peak flows. Modeled peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs with adjusted temperatures and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled values. Changes in peak flows with 50-percent AEPs are similar to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow; changes in peak flows with 1-percent AEPs are similar in pattern to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow, but some of the changes associated with increasing precipitation are much larger than changes in annual daily maximum peak flow. Substantial decreases in maximum annual winter snowpack water equivalent are modeled to occur with increasing air temperatures at the four basins in the study. (Snowpack is the snow on the ground that accumulates during a winter, and water equivalent is the amount of water in a snowpack if it were melted.) The decrease in modeled peak flows with increasing air temperature, given no change in precipitation amount, is likely caused by these decreases in winter snowpack and resulting decreases in snowmelt runoff. This Scientific Investigations Report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Fact Sheet (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3021/.

Late Glacial temperature and precipitation changes in the lowland Neotropics by tandem measurement of δ 18O in biogenic carbonate and gypsum hydration water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodell, David A.; Turchyn, Alexandra V.; Wiseman, Camilla J.; Escobar, Jaime; Curtis, Jason H.; Brenner, Mark; Gilli, Adrian; Mueller, Andreas D.; Anselmetti, Flavio; Ariztegui, Daniel; Brown, Erik T.

2012-01-01

We applied a new method to reconstruct paleotemperature in the tropics during the last deglaciation by measuring oxygen isotopes of co-occurring gypsum hydration water and biogenic carbonate in sediment cores from two lakes on the Yucatan Peninsula. Oxygen and hydrogen isotope values of interstitial and gypsum hydration water indicate that the crystallization water preserves the isotopic signal of the lake water, and has not undergone post-depositional isotopic exchange with sediment pore water. The estimated lake water δ18O is combined with carbonate δ18O to calculate paleotemperature. Three paired measurements of 1200-yr-old gypsum and gastropod aragonite from Lake Chichancanab, Mexico, yielded a mean temperature of 26 °C (range 23-29.5 °C), which is consistent with the mean and range of mean annual temperatures (MAT) in the region today. Paired measurements of ostracods, gastropods, and gypsum hydration water samples were measured in cores from Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala, spanning the Late Glacial and early Holocene period (18.5-10.4 ka). The lowest recorded temperatures occurred at the start of Heinrich Stadial (HS) 1 at 18.5 ka. Inferred temperatures from benthic ostracods ranged from 16 to 20 °C during HS 1, which is 6-10 °C cooler than MAT in the region today, whereas temperatures derived from shallow-water gastropods were generally warmer (20-25 °C), reflecting epilimnetic temperatures. The derived temperatures support previous findings of greater tropical cooling on land in Central America during the Late Glacial than indicated by nearby marine records. Temperature increased in two steps during the last deglaciation. The first occurred during the Bolling-Allerod (B-A; from 14.7 to 13 ka) when temperature rose to 20-24 °C towards the end of this period. The second step occurred at 10.4 ka near the beginning of the Holocene when ostracod-inferred temperature rose to 26 °C, reflecting modern hypolimnetic temperature set during winter, whereas gastropod-derived temperature attained 30 °C, reflecting modern summer epilimnetic temperature.

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.; Cui, X.; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D. M.; McGuire, A. D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2015-03-01

We perform a land surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies between 6 modern stand-alone land surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by 5 different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99-135 x 104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the best current observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 x 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1-128 x 104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air temperature based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Gaseous Oxidized Mercury Dry Deposition Measurements in the Southwestern USA: A Comparison between Texas, Eastern Oklahoma, and the Four Corners Area

PubMed Central

Sather, Mark E.; Allen, Kara L.; Smith, Luther; Mathew, Johnson; Jackson, Clarence; Callison, Ryan; Scrapper, Larry; Hathcoat, April; Adam, Jacque; Keese, Danielle; Brunette, Robert; Karlstrom, Jason; Van der Jagt, Gerard

2014-01-01

Gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) dry deposition measurements using aerodynamic surrogate surface passive samplers were collected in central and eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma, from September 2011 to September 2012. The purpose of this study was to provide an initial characterization of the magnitude and spatial extent of ambient GOM dry deposition in central and eastern Texas for a 12-month period which contained statistically average annual results for precipitation totals, temperature, and wind speed. The research objective was to investigate GOM dry deposition in areas of Texas impacted by emissions from coal-fired utility boilers and compare it with GOM dry deposition measurements previously observed in eastern Oklahoma and the Four Corners area. Annual GOM dry deposition rate estimates were relatively low in Texas, ranging from 0.1 to 0.3 ng/m2h at the four Texas monitoring sites, similar to the 0.2 ng/m2h annual GOM dry deposition rate estimate recorded at the eastern Oklahoma monitoring site. The Texas and eastern Oklahoma annual GOM dry deposition rate estimates were at least four times lower than the highest annual GOM dry deposition rate estimate previously measured in the more arid bordering western states of New Mexico and Colorado in the Four Corners area. PMID:24955412

Forcing and Responses of the Surface Energy Budget at Summit, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Nathaniel B.

Energy exchange at the Greenland Ice Sheet surface governs surface temperature variability, a factor critical for representing increasing surface melt extent, which portends a rise in global sea level. A comprehensive set of cloud, tropospheric, near-surface and sub-surface measurements at Summit Station is utilized to determine the driving forces and subsequent responses of the surface energy budget (SEB). This budget includes radiative, turbulent, and ground heat fluxes, and ultimately controls the evolution of surface temperature. At Summit Station, clouds radiatively warm the surface in all months with an annual average cloud radiative forcing value of 33 W m -2, largely driven by the occurrence of liquid-bearing clouds. The magnitude of the surface temperature response is dependent on how turbulent and ground heat fluxes modulate changes to radiative forcing. Relationships between forcing terms and responding surface fluxes show that changes in the upwelling longwave radiation compensate for 65-85% (50- 60%) of the total change in radiative forcing in the winter (summer). The ground heat flux is the second largest response term (16% annually), especially during winter. Throughout the annual cycle, the sensible heat flux response is comparatively constant (9%) and latent heat flux response is only 1.5%, becoming more of a factor in modulating surface temperature responses during the summer. Combining annual cycles of these responses with cloud radiative forcing results, clouds warm the surface by an estimated 7.8°C annually. A reanalysis product (ERA-I), operational model (CFSv2), and climate model (CESM) are evaluated utilizing the comprehensive set of SEB observations and process-based relationships. Annually, surface temperatures in each model are warmer than observed with overall poor representation of the coldest surface temperatures. Process-based relationships between different SEB flux terms offer insight into how well a modeling framework represents physical processes and the ability to distinguish errors in forcing versus those in physical representation. Such relationships convey that all three models underestimate the response of surface temperatures to changes in radiative forcing. These results provide a method to expose model deficiencies and indicate the importance of representing surface, sub-surface and boundary-layer processes when portraying cloud impacts on surface temperature variability.

Climatic controls of aboveground net primary production in semi-arid grasslands along a latitudinal gradient portend low sensitivity to warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mowll, Whitney; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Cherwin, Karie; Smith, Anine; Symstad, Amy J.; Vermeire, Lance; Collins, Scott L.; Smith, Melinda D.; Knapp, Alan K.

2015-01-01

Although climate models forecast warmer temperatures with a high degree of certainty, precipitation is the primary driver of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in most grasslands. Conversely, variations in temperature seldom are related to patterns of ANPP. Thus forecasting responses to warming is a challenge, and raises the question: how sensitive will grassland ANPP be to warming? We evaluated climate and multi-year ANPP data (67 years) from eight western US grasslands arrayed along mean annual temperature (MAT; ~7-14 °C) and mean annual precipitation (MAP; ~250-500 mm) gradients. Weused regression and analysis of covariance to assess relationships between ANPP and temperature, as well as precipitation (annual and growing season) to evaluate temperature sensitivity of ANPP. We also related ANPP to the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), which combines precipitation and evapotranspiration to better represent moisture available for plant growth. Regression models indicated that variation in growing season temperature was negatively related to total and graminoid ANPP, but precipitation was a stronger predictor than temperature. Growing season temperature was also a significant parameter in more complex models, but again precipitation was consistently a stronger predictor of ANPP. Surprisingly, neither annual nor growing season SPEI were as strongly related to ANPP as precipitation. We conclude that forecasted warming likely will affect ANPP in these grasslands, but that predicting temperature effects from natural climatic gradients is difficult. This is because, unlike precipitation, warming effects can be positive or negative and moderated by shifts in the C3/C4 ratios of plant communities.

Changes in minimum and maximum temperatures at the Pic du Midi in relation with humidity and cloudiness, 1882-1984

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, J.; Bücher, A.

In an attempt to contribute to the investigation on a global climate change, a historical series of minimum and maximum temperature data at the Pic du Midi, a mountain observatory at 2862 m a.s.l. in the French Pyrenees, is updated after correction of a systematic deviation due to a relocation of the station in 1971. These data, which now cover the 1882-1984 period, are examined in parallel with humidity and cloud cover data for the same period. From the beginning to the end of this period, observations show that the mean night-time temperature has increased by 2.39° C/100 yr while the mean daytime temperature has decreased by 0.50° C/100 yr. In consequence, the mean annual diurnal temperature range has dropped by 36%/100 yr. The maximum seasonal decrease is 46%/100 yr in spring. Season-to-season and year-to-year inter-relationships between minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity and cloud cover suggest that the decrease in maximum temperature is related to a concomitant increase of 15%/100 yr in both relative humidity and cloud cover.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes

PubMed Central

Campbell, Karen M.; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V.; Halsey, Eric S.; Laguna-Torres, V. Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C.; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

Background Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2% resolution. Conclusions/Significance Local duration in limited areas of temperature-humidity weather-space identifies potential locations, timing, and magnitude of transmission. The weather-space profile of transmission-potential provides needed data that define a systematic and highly-sensitive weather-disease connection, demonstrating separate but coupled roles of temperature and humidity. New insights regarding natural regulation of human-mosquito transmission across diverse ecological settings advance our understanding of risk locally and globally for dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases and support advances in public health policy/operations, providing an evidence-base for modeling, predicting risk, and surveillance-prevention planning. PMID:26222979

Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila Trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kennedy, Thomas L.; Gutzler, David S.; Leung, Lai R.

2008-11-20

Regional climates are a major factor in determining the distribution of many species. Anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been predicted to cause rapid climatic changes in the next 50-100 years. Species such as the Gila Trout (Onchorhynchus gilae) that have small ranges, limited dispersal capabilities, and narrow physiological tolerances will become increasingly susceptible to extinction as their climate envelope changes. This study uses a regional climate change simulation (Leung et al. 2004) to determine changes in the climate envelope for Gila Trout, which is sensitive to maximum temperature, associated with a plausible scenario for greenhouse gasmore » increases. The model predicts approximately a 2° C increase in temperature and a doubling by the mid 21st Century in the annual number of days during which temperature exceeds 37°C, and a 25% increase in the number of days above 32°C, across the current geographical range of Gila Trout. At the same time summer rainfall decreases by more than 20%. These climate changes would reduce their available habitat by decreasing the size of their climate envelope. Warmer temperatures coupled with a decrease in summer precipitation would also tend to increase the intensity and frequency of forest fires that are a major threat to their survival. The climate envelope approach utilized here could be used to assess climate change threats to other rare species with limited ranges and dispersal capabilities.« less

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Culp, Leah A.; Cohen, Emily B.; Scarpignato, Amy L.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Marra, Peter P.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest effect during the breeding season in UMGL as well as during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in South America. We provide a model for adaptive management of migratory animals in the face of projected climate change, including identification of priority species, research needs, and regions within non-breeding ranges for potential conservation partnerships.

Seasonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact—An investigation using mathematical models

PubMed Central

Danon, Leon; Prada, Joaquín M.; Gunawardena, Sharmini A.; Truscott, James E.; Vlaminck, Johnny; Anderson, Roy M.; Levecke, Bruno; Morgan, Eric R; Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre

2018-01-01

There is clear empirical evidence that environmental conditions can influence Ascaris spp. free-living stage development and host reinfection, but the impact of these differences on human infections, and interventions to control them, is variable. A new model framework reflecting four key stages of the A. lumbricoides life cycle, incorporating the effects of rainfall and temperature, is used to describe the level of infection in the human population alongside the environmental egg dynamics. Using data from South Korea and Nigeria, we conclude that settings with extreme fluctuations in rainfall or temperature could exhibit strong seasonal transmission patterns that may be partially masked by the longevity of A. lumbricoides infections in hosts; we go on to demonstrate how seasonally timed mass drug administration (MDA) could impact the outcomes of control strategies. For the South Korean setting the results predict a comparative decrease of 74.5% in mean worm days (the number of days the average individual spend infected with worms across a 12 month period) between the best and worst MDA timings after four years of annual treatment. The model found no significant seasonal effect on MDA in the Nigerian setting due to a narrower annual temperature range and no rainfall dependence. Our results suggest that seasonal variation in egg survival and maturation could be exploited to maximise the impact of MDA in certain settings. PMID:29346383

Optical performance effects of the misalignment of nonimaging optics solar collectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferry, Jonathan; Ricketts, Melissa; Winston, Roland

2017-09-01

The use of non-imaging optics in the application of high temperature solar thermal collectors can be extremely advantageous in eliminating the need to track the sun. The stationary nature of non-imaging optics collectors, commonly called compound parabolic concentrators (CPC's), present a unique design challenge when orienting them to collect sunlight. Many facilities throughout the world that adopt CPCs are not situated to orient the collectors in the ideal angle facing the sun. This East-West misalignment can adversely affect the optical and power performance of the CPC collector. To characterize how this misalignment effects CPCs, reverse raytracing simulations are conducted for varying offset angles of the collectors from solar South. Optical performance is analyzed for an ideal East-West oriented CPC with a 40-degree acceptance angle. Direction cosine plots are used to develop a ratio of annual solar collection by the CPC over the total annual solar input. From these simulations, average annual collector performance is given for offset angles ranging from 0 to 90 degrees for different Earth Latitudes in 10 degree increments.

Remote sensing-based estimation of annual soil respiration at two contrasting forest sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Ni; Gu, Lianhong; Black, T. Andrew

Here, soil respiration (R s), an important component of the global carbon cycle, can be estimated using remotely sensed data, but the accuracy of this technique has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we proposed a methodology for the remote estimation of annual R s at two contrasting FLUXNET forest sites (a deciduous broadleaf forest and an evergreen needleleaf forest). A version of the Akaike's information criterion was used to select the best model from a range of models for annual R s estimation based on the remotely sensed data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and root-zonemore » soil moisture product derived from assimilation of the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer soil moisture products and a two-layer Palmer water balance model. We found that the Arrhenius-type function based on nighttime land surface temperature (LST-night) was the best model by comprehensively considering the model explanatory power and model complexity at the Missouri Ozark and BC-Campbell River 1949 Douglas-fir sites.« less

Annual Corn Yield Estimation through Multi-temporal MODIS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Y.; Zheng, B.; Campbell, J. B.

2013-12-01

This research employed 13 years of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate annual corn yield for the Midwest of the United States. The overall objective of this study was to examine if annual corn yield could be accurately predicted using MODIS time-series NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and ancillary data such monthly precipitation and temperature. MODIS-NDVI 16-Day composite images were acquired from the USGS EROS Data Center for calendar years 2000 to 2012. For the same time-period, county level corn yield statistics were obtained from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The monthly precipitation and temperature measures were derived from Precipitation-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climate data. A cropland mask was derived using 2006 National Land Cover Database. For each county and within the cropland mask, the MODIS-NDVI time-series data and PRISM climate data were spatially averaged, at their respective time steps. We developed a random forest predictive model with the MODIS-NDVI and climate data as predictors and corn yield as response. To assess the model accuracy, we used twelve years of data as training and the remaining year as hold-out testing set. The training and testing procedures were repeated 13 times. The R2 ranged from 0.72 to 0.83 for testing years. It was also found that the inclusion of climate data did not improve the model predictive performance. MODIS-NDVI time-series data alone might provide sufficient information for county level corn yield prediction.

Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, H. K.; Stenchikov, G.; El-Fadel, M.

2017-12-01

A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model's ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B,; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Raithel, Christopher J.; Relyea, Rick A.; Scott, A. Floyd; Skelly, David K.; Skidds, Dennis E.; Smith, Charles K.; Werner, Earl E.

2018-01-01

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

1988-01-01

A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

Re-evaluating the northeastern Minnesota moose decline and the role of wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

2014-01-01

We re-evaluated findings from Lenarz et al. (2009) that adult moose (Alces alces) survival in northeastern Minnesota was related to high January temperatures and that predation by wolves (Canis lupus) played a minor role. We found significant inverse relationships between annual wolf numbers in part of the moose range and various moose demographics from 2003 to 2013 that suggested a stronger role of wolves than heretofore believed. To re-evaluate the temperature findings, we conducted a simulation study, mimicking the approach taken by Lenarz et al. (2009), to explore the potential for concluding a significant relationship exists between temperature and survival, when no association exists. We found that the high R2s and low probabilities associated with the regression models in Lenarz et al. (2009) should be viewed cautiously in light of the large number of fitted models (m = 45) and few observations (n = 6 for each of 5 response variables).

Day length unlikely to constrain climate-driven shifts in leaf-out times of northern woody plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zohner, Constantin M.; Benito, Blas M.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Renner, Susanne S.

2016-12-01

The relative roles of temperature and day length in driving spring leaf unfolding are known for few species, limiting our ability to predict phenology under climate warming. Using experimental data, we assess the importance of photoperiod as a leaf-out regulator in 173 woody species from throughout the Northern Hemisphere, and we also infer the influence of winter duration, temperature seasonality, and inter-annual temperature variability. We combine results from climate- and light-controlled chambers with species’ native climate niches inferred from georeferenced occurrences and range maps. Of the 173 species, only 35% relied on spring photoperiod as a leaf-out signal. Contrary to previous suggestions, these species come from lower latitudes, whereas species from high latitudes with long winters leafed out independent of photoperiod. The strong effect of species’ geographic-climatic history on phenological strategies complicates the prediction of community-wide phenological change.

EnviroAtlas - Biological nitrogen fixation in natural/semi-natural ecosystems by 12-digit HUC for the Conterminous United States, 2006

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This EnviroAtlas dataset contains data on the mean biological nitrogen fixation in natural/semi-natural ecosystems per 12-digit Hydrologic Unit (HUC) in 2006. Biological N fixation (BNF) in natural/semi-natural ecosystems was estimated using a correlation with actual evapotranspiration (AET). This correlation is based on a global meta-analysis of BNF in natural/semi-natural ecosystems (Cleveland et al. 1999). AET estimates for 2006 were calculated using a regression equation describing the correlation of AET with climate (average annual daily temperature, average annual minimum daily temperature, average annual maximum daily temperature, and annual precipitation) and land use/land cover variables in the conterminous US (Sanford and Selnick 2013). Data describing annual average minimum and maximum daily temperatures and total precipitation for 2006 were acquired from the PRISM climate dataset (http://prism.oregonstate.edu). Average annual climate data were then calculated for individual 12-digit USGS Hydrologic Unit Codes (HUC12s; http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html; 22 March 2011 release) using the Zonal Statistics tool in ArcMap 10.0. AET for individual HUC12s was estimated using equations described in Sanford and Selnick (2013). BNF in natural/semi-natural ecosystems within individual HUC12s was modeled with an equation describing the statistical relationship between BNF (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and actual evapotranspiration (AET; cm yr-1) and scaled to the proportion

Effects of landcover, water redistribution, and temperature on ecosystem processes in the South Plate Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Hartman, M.D.; Kittel, Timothy G.F.; Band, L.E.; Ojima, D. S.; Lammers, R.B.

1998-01-01

Over one-third of the land area in the South Platte Basin of Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming, has been converted to croplands. Irrigated cropland now comprises 8% of the basin, while dry croplands make up 31%. We used the RHESSys model to compare the changes in plant productivity and vegetation-related hydrological processes that occurred as a result of either land cover alteration or directional temperature changes (−2°C, +4°C). Land cover change exerted more control over annual plant productivity and water fluxes for converted grasslands, while the effect of temperature changes on productivity and water fluxes was stronger in the mountain vegetation. Throughout the basin, land cover change increased the annual loss of water to the atmosphere by 114 mm via evaporation and transpiration, an increase of 37%. Both irrigated and nonirrigated grains became active earlier in the year than shortgrass steppe, leading to a seasonal shift in water losses to the atmosphere. Basin-wide photosynthesis increased by 80% due to grain production. In contrast, a 4°C warming scenario caused annual transpiration to increase by only 3% and annual evaporation to increase by 28%, for a total increase of 71 mm. Warming decreased basin-wide photosynthesis by 16%. There is a large elevational range from east to west in the South Platte Basin, which encompasses the western edge of the Great Plains and the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. This elevational gain is accompanied by great changes in topographic complexity, vegetation type, and climate. Shortgrass steppe and crops found at elevations between 850 and 1800 m give way to coniferous forests and tundra between 1800 and 4000 m. Climate is increasingly dominated by winter snow precipitation with increasing elevation, and the timing of snowmelt influences tundra and forest ecosystem productivity, soil moisture, and downstream discharge. Mean annual precipitation of <500 mm on the plains below 1800 m is far less than potential evapotranspiration of 1000–1500 mm and is insufficient for optimum plant productivity. The changes in water flux and photosynthesis from conversion of steppe to cropland are the result of redistribution of snowmelt water from the mountains and groundwater pumping through irrigation projects.

Seasonal and inter-annual variation in ecosystem scale methane emission from a boreal fen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinne, Janne; Li, Xuefei; Raivonen, Maarit; Peltola, Olli; Sallantaus, Tapani; Haapanala, Sami; Smolander, Sampo; Alekseychik, Pavel; Aurela, Mika; Korrensalo, Aino; Mammarella, Ivan; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina; Vesala, Timo

2016-04-01

Northern wetlands are one of the major sources of atmospheric methane. We have measured ecosystem scale methane emissions from a boreal fen continuously since 2005. The site is an oligotrophic fen in boreal vegetation zone situated in Siikaneva wetland complex in Southern Finland. The mean annual temperature in the area is 3.3°C and total annual precipitation 710 mm. We have conducted the methane emission measurements by the eddy covariance method. Additionally we have measured fluxes of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and sensible heat together with a suite of other environmental parameters. We have analyzed this data alongside with a model run with University of Helsinki methane model. The measured fluxes show generally highest methane emission in late summers coinciding with the highest temperatures in saturated peat zone. During winters the fluxes show small but detectable emission despite the snow and ice cover on the fen. More than 90% of the annual methane emission occurs in snow-free period. The methane emission and peat temperature are connected in exponential manner in seasonal scales, but methane emission does not show the expected behavior with water table. The lack of water table position dependence also contrasts with the spatial variation across microtopography. There is no systematic variation in sub-diurnal time scale. The general seasonal cycle in methane emission is captured well with the methane model. We will show how well the model reproduces the temperature and water table position dependencies observed. The annual methane emission is typically around 10 gC m-2. This is a significant part of the total carbon exchange between the fen and the atmosphere and about twice the estimated carbon loss by leaching from the fen area. The inter-annual variability in the methane emission is modest. The June-September methane emissions from different years, comprising most of the annual emission, correlates positively with peat temperature, but not with water table position.

The effect of changes in sea surface temperature on linear growth of Porites coral in Ambon Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corvianawatie, Corry, E-mail: corvianawatie@students.itb.ac.id; Putri, Mutiara R., E-mail: mutiara.putri@fitb.itb.ac.id; Cahyarini, Sri Y., E-mail: yuda@geotek.lipi.go.id

Coral is one of the most important organisms in the coral reef ecosystem. There are several factors affecting coral growth, one of them is changes in sea surface temperature (SST). The purpose of this research is to understand the influence of SST variability on the annual linear growth of Porites coral taken from Ambon Bay. The annual coral linear growth was calculated and compared to the annual SST from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST v3b) model. Coral growth was calculated by using Coral X-radiograph Density System (CoralXDS) software. Coral sample X-radiographs were used as input data.more » Chronology was developed by calculating the coral’s annual growth bands. A pair of high and low density banding patterns observed in the coral’s X-radiograph represent one year of coral growth. The results of this study shows that Porites coral extents from 2001-2009 and had an average growth rate of 1.46 cm/year. Statistical analysis shows that the annual coral linear growth declined by 0.015 cm/year while the annual SST declined by 0.013°C/year. SST and the annual linear growth of Porites coral in the Ambon Bay is insignificantly correlated with r=0.304 (n=9, p>0.05). This indicates that annual SST variability does not significantly influence the linear growth of Porites coral from Ambon Bay. It is suggested that sedimentation load, salinity, pH or other environmental factors may affect annual linear coral growth.« less

CFCI3 (CFC-11): UV Absorption Spectrum Temperature Dependence Measurements and the Impact on Atmospheric Lifetime and Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcgillen, Max R.; Fleming, Eric L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Burkholder, James B.

2014-01-01

CFCl3 (CFC-11) is both an atmospheric ozone-depleting and potent greenhouse gas that is removed primarily via stratospheric UV photolysis. Uncertainty in the temperature dependence of its UV absorption spectrum is a significant contributing factor to the overall uncertainty in its global lifetime and, thus, model calculations of stratospheric ozone recovery and climate change. In this work, the CFC-11 UV absorption spectrum was measured over a range of wavelength (184.95 - 230 nm) and temperature (216 - 296 K). We report a spectrum temperature dependence that is less than currently recommended for use in atmospheric models. The impact on its atmospheric lifetime was quantified using a 2-D model and the spectrum parameterization developed in this work. The obtained global annually averaged lifetime was 58.1 +- 0.7 years (2 sigma uncertainty due solely to the spectrum uncertainty). The lifetime is slightly reduced and the uncertainty significantly reduced from that obtained using current spectrum recommendations

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures and air temperatures calculated with three equations: a case study from three Croatian stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonacci, Ognjen; Željković, Ivana; Trogrlić, Robert Šakić; Milković, Janja

2013-10-01

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures T0 [Eq. (1)] and temperatures calculated with three different equations [(2), (3) and (4)] (commonly used in climatological practice) were investigated at three main meteorological Croatian stations from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2011. The stations are situated in the following three climatically distinct areas: (1) Zagreb-Grič (mild continental climate), (2) Zavižan (cold mountain climate), and (3) Dubrovnik (hot Mediterranean climate). T1 [Eq. (2)] and T3 [Eq. (4)] mean temperatures are defined by the algorithms based on the weighted means of temperatures measured at irregularly spaced, yet fixed hours. T2 [Eq. (3)] is the mean temperature defined as the average of daily maximum and minimum temperature. The equation as well as the time of observations used introduces a bias into mean temperatures. The largest differences occur for mean daily temperatures. The calculated daily difference value from all three equations and all analysed stations varies from -3.73 °C to +3.56 °C, from -1.39 °C to +0.79 °C for monthly differences and from -0.76 °C to +0.30 °C for annual differences.

Examination of the Armagh Observatory Annual Mean Temperature Record, 1844-2004

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2006-01-01

The long-term annual mean temperature record (1844-2004) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom) is examined for evidence of systematic variation, in particular, as related to solar/geomagnetic forcing and secular variation. Indeed, both are apparent in the temperature record. Moving averages for 10 years of temperature are found to highly correlate against both 10-year moving averages of the aa-geomagnetic index and sunspot number, having correlation coefficients of approx. 0.7, inferring that nearly half the variance in the 10-year moving average of temperature can be explained by solar/geomagnetic forcing. The residuals appear episodic in nature, with cooling seen in the 1880s and again near 1980. Seven of the last 10 years of the temperature record has exceeded 10 C, unprecedented in the overall record. Variation of sunspot cyclic averages and 2-cycle moving averages of temperature strongly associate with similar averages for the solar/geomagnetic cycle, with the residuals displaying an apparent 9-cycle variation and a steep rise in temperature associated with cycle 23. Hale cycle averages of temperature for even-odd pairs of sunspot cycles correlate against similar averages for the solar/geomagnetic cycle and, especially, against the length of the Hale cycle. Indications are that annual mean temperature will likely exceed 10 C over the next decade.

Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2011-01-01

The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can not be explained by temperature alone and other causes have to be considered.

Climatic effects on mosquito abundance in Mediterranean wetlands

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases is highly controversial. One of the principal points of debate is whether or not climate influences mosquito abundance, a key factor in disease transmission. Methods To test this hypothesis, we analysed ten years of data (2003–2012) from biweekly surveys to assess inter-annual and seasonal relationships between the abundance of seven mosquito species known to be pathogen vectors (West Nile virus, Usutu virus, dirofilariasis and Plasmodium sp.) and several climatic variables in two wetlands in SW Spain. Results Within-season abundance patterns were related to climatic variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, tide heights, relative humidity and photoperiod) that varied according to the mosquito species in question. Rainfall during winter months was positively related to Culex pipiens and Ochlerotatus detritus annual abundances. Annual maximum temperatures were non-linearly related to annual Cx. pipiens abundance, while annual mean temperatures were positively related to annual Ochlerotatus caspius abundance. Finally, we modelled shifts in mosquito abundances using the A2 and B2 temperature and rainfall climate change scenarios for the period 2011–2100. While Oc. caspius, an important anthropophilic species, may increase in abundance, no changes are expected for Cx. pipiens or the salt-marsh mosquito Oc. detritus. Conclusions Our results highlight that the effects of climate are species-specific, place-specific and non-linear and that linear approaches will therefore overestimate the effect of climate change on mosquito abundances at high temperatures. Climate warming does not necessarily lead to an increase in mosquito abundance in natural Mediterranean wetlands and will affect, above all, species such as Oc. caspius whose numbers are not closely linked to rainfall and are influenced, rather, by local tidal patterns and temperatures. The final impact of changes in vector abundance on disease frequency will depend on the direct and indirect effects of climate and other parameters related to pathogen amplification and spillover on humans and other vertebrates. PMID:25030527

[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. II. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in Southwest China].

PubMed

Dai, Shu-Wei; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Zhao, Meng; Li, Yong; Wang, Wen-Feng; Liu, Zhi-Juan

2011-02-01

Based on the 1961-2007 ground observation data from 88 meteorological stations in Southwest China, and by using statistical methods and GIS software, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in this region in the whole year and during temperature-defined growth period. In 1961-2007, the annual mean temperature in the region showed an increasing trend, with the increment averaged 0.18 degrees C x (10 a)(-1). The > or = 10 degrees C and > or = 15 degrees C accumulated temperature during temperature-defined growth period also showed an increasing trend, with the increment averaged 55.3 degrees C x d x (10 a)(-1) and 37 degrees C x d x (10 a)(-1), respectively. The annual sunshine hours decreased gradually from west to east, and the decreasing trend was more significant in eastern than in western region. The sunshine hours during temperature-defined growth period showed an overall increasing trend, and the spatial difference was great. The precipitation resource had an overall decrease, with the decrement in whole year and during temperature-defined growth period averaged 10 mm x (10 a)(-1) and 8 mm x (10 a)(-1), respectively. The annual reference crop evapotranspiration generally decreased, but the decrement was less than that of annual precipitation. The reference crop evapotranspiration during temperature-defined growth period within about 53% meteorological stations decreased.

Major QTLs for critical photoperiod and vernalization underlie extensive variation in flowering in the Mimulus guttatus species complex.

PubMed

Friedman, Jannice; Willis, John H

2013-07-01

Species with extensive ranges experience highly variable environments with respect to temperature, light and soil moisture. Synchronizing the transition from vegetative to floral growth is important to employ favorable conditions for reproduction. Optimal timing of this transition might be different for semelparous annual plants and iteroparous perennial plants. We studied variation in the critical photoperiod necessary for floral induction and the requirement for a period of cold-chilling (vernalization) in 46 populations of annuals and perennials in the Mimulus guttatus species complex. We then examined critical photoperiod and vernalization QTLs in growth chambers using F(2) progeny from annual and perennial parents that differed in their requirements for flowering. We identify extensive variation in critical photoperiod, with most annual populations requiring substantially shorter day lengths to initiate flowering than perennial populations. We discover a novel type of vernalization requirement in perennial populations that is contingent on plants experiencing short days first. QTL analyses identify two large-effect QTLs which influence critical photoperiod. In two separate vernalization experiments we discover each set of crosses contain different large-effect QTLs for vernalization. Mimulus guttatus harbors extensive variation in critical photoperiod and vernalization that may be a consequence of local adaptation. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Importance of determining the climatic domains of sheep breeds.

PubMed

Petit, D; Boujenane, I

2018-07-01

The main purpose of the study was to compare the capacity of the major sheep breeds in Morocco to cope with climate changes through the ranges of several climate parameters in which they can be found. We first delimitated the climatic 'domains' of each breed by constructing a database including altitude and climatic parameters (minima mean of the coldest month, maxima mean of the hottest month, annual rainfall, pluviothermic coefficient of Emberger Q 2, annual minima mean and annual maxima mean) on a 30-year period using the representative stations of each breed distribution. The overlap between each breed combination was quantified through a canonical analysis that extracted the most discriminant parameters. The variance analysis of each climatic parameter evidenced two breeds remarkable by their tolerance. The first one is the Timahdite, mainly settled in areas over 1100 m, which can tolerate the greatest variations in annual rainfall and pluviothermic coefficient. In spite of this feature, this breed is endangered owing to the decreasing quality of pastures. The second one is the D'man which apparently can support high variations in extreme temperatures. In fact, this breed is not well adapted to pastures and requires a special microclimate offered by oases. The information reported in this study will be the basis for the establishment of characterization and selection strategies for Moroccan sheep.

Estimating methane emissions from landfills based on rainfall, ambient temperature, and waste composition: The CLEEN model.

PubMed

Karanjekar, Richa V; Bhatt, Arpita; Altouqui, Said; Jangikhatoonabad, Neda; Durai, Vennila; Sattler, Melanie L; Hossain, M D Sahadat; Chen, Victoria

2015-12-01

Accurately estimating landfill methane emissions is important for quantifying a landfill's greenhouse gas emissions and power generation potential. Current models, including LandGEM and IPCC, often greatly simplify treatment of factors like rainfall and ambient temperature, which can substantially impact gas production. The newly developed Capturing Landfill Emissions for Energy Needs (CLEEN) model aims to improve landfill methane generation estimates, but still require inputs that are fairly easy to obtain: waste composition, annual rainfall, and ambient temperature. To develop the model, methane generation was measured from 27 laboratory scale landfill reactors, with varying waste compositions (ranging from 0% to 100%); average rainfall rates of 2, 6, and 12 mm/day; and temperatures of 20, 30, and 37°C, according to a statistical experimental design. Refuse components considered were the major biodegradable wastes, food, paper, yard/wood, and textile, as well as inert inorganic waste. Based on the data collected, a multiple linear regression equation (R(2)=0.75) was developed to predict first-order methane generation rate constant values k as functions of waste composition, annual rainfall, and temperature. Because, laboratory methane generation rates exceed field rates, a second scale-up regression equation for k was developed using actual gas-recovery data from 11 landfills in high-income countries with conventional operation. The Capturing Landfill Emissions for Energy Needs (CLEEN) model was developed by incorporating both regression equations into the first-order decay based model for estimating methane generation rates from landfills. CLEEN model values were compared to actual field data from 6 US landfills, and to estimates from LandGEM and IPCC. For 4 of the 6 cases, CLEEN model estimates were the closest to actual. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The bivalve Glycymeris planicostalis as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for the Rupelian (Early Oligocene) of central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walliser, E. O.; Schöne, B. R.; Tütken, T.; Zirkel, J.; Grimm, K. I.; Pross, J.

2015-04-01

Current global warming is likely to result in a unipolar glaciated world with unpredictable repercussions on atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. These changes are expected to affect seasonal extremes and the year-to-year variability of seasonality. To better constrain the mode and tempo of the anticipated changes, climatologists require ultra-high-resolution proxy data of time intervals in the past, e.g., the Oligocene, during which boundary conditions were similar to those predicted for the near future. In the present paper, we assess whether such information can be obtained from shells of the long-lived bivalve mollusk Glycymeris planicostalis from the late Rupelian of the Mainz Basin, Germany. Our results indicate that the studied shells are pristinely preserved and provide an excellent archive for reconstructing changes of sea surface temperature on seasonal to interannual timescales. Shells of G. planicostalis grew uninterruptedly during winter and summer and therefore recorded the full seasonal temperature amplitude that prevailed in the Mainz Basin ~ 30 Ma. Absolute sea surface temperature data were reconstructed from δ18Oshell values assuming a δ18Owater signature that was extrapolated from coeval sirenian tooth enamel. Reconstructed values range between 12.3 and 22.0 °C and agree well with previous estimates based on planktonic foraminifera and shark teeth. However, temperatures during seasonal extremes vary greatly on interannual timescales. Mathematically re-sampled (i.e., corrected for uneven number of samples per annual increment) winter and summer temperatures averaged over 40 annual increments of three specimens equal 13.6 ± 0.8 and 17.3 ± 1.2 °C, respectively. Such high-resolution paleoclimate information can be highly relevant for numerical climate studies aiming to predict possible future climates in a unipolar glaciated or, ultimately, polar-ice-free world.

Energetic requirements of green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) feeding on burrowing shrimp (Neotrypaea californiensis) in estuaries: importance of temperature, reproductive investment, and residence time

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borin, Joshua M.; Moser, Mary L.; Hansen, Adam G.; Beauchamp, David A.; Corbett, Stephen C.; Dumbauld, Brett R.; Pruitt, Casey; Ruesink, Jennifer L.; Donoghue, Cinde

2017-01-01

Habitat use can be complex, as tradeoffs among physiology, resource abundance, and predator avoidance affect the suitability of different environments for different species. Green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris), an imperiled species along the west coast of North America, undertake extensive coastal migrations and occupy estuaries during the summer and early fall. Warm water and abundant prey in estuaries may afford a growth opportunity. We applied a bioenergetics model to investigate how variation in estuarine temperature, spawning frequency, and duration of estuarine residence affect consumption and growth potential for individual green sturgeon. We assumed that green sturgeon achieve observed annual growth by feeding solely in conditions represented by Willapa Bay, Washington, an estuary annually frequented by green sturgeon and containing extensive tidal flats that harbor a major prey source (burrowing shrimp, Neotrypaea californiensis). Modeled consumption rates increased little with reproductive investment (<0.4%), but responded strongly (10–50%) to water temperature and duration of residence, as higher temperatures and longer residence required greater consumption to achieve equivalent growth. Accordingly, although green sturgeon occupy Willapa Bay from May through September, acoustically-tagged individuals are observed over much shorter durations (34 d + 41 d SD, N = 89). Simulations of <34 d estuarine residence required unrealistically high consumption rates to achieve observed growth, whereas longer durations required sustained feeding, and therefore higher total intake, to compensate for prolonged exposure to warm temperatures. Model results provide a range of per capita consumption rates by green sturgeon feeding in estuaries to inform management decisions regarding resource and habitat protection for this protected species.

Deployment of an Ecosystem Warming Prototype at the Fairbanks Permafrost Experiment Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, A. M.; Zufelt, J. E.; Wullschleger, S. D.

2010-12-01

Controlled experiments in terrestrial ecosystems are necessary to understand how changes in climate may affect the interactions among physical, chemical, and biological parameters. Advanced approaches to above and below ground warming will improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic processes that govern plant and soil response to climatic change in terrestrial ecosystems. A prototype concept for raising soil temperatures in large outdoor plots has been developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The performance of this design has been field-tested in 3-m diameter plots in a temperate deciduous forest and also numerically simulated for experimental plots ranging from 3 to 20 m in diameter. The goal of the present study is to determine if the prototype system can be used to increase the temperature of permafrost soils in arctic and sub-arctic climates. Two sites in Alaska have been selected (Fairbanks and Barrow) for installation and testing of 20-meter diameter plots beginning in the fall of 2010. Fairbanks has a continental climate, with a mean annual air temperature of -3.3°C, mean annual precipitation of 287 mm, and relatively warm (-1 to -2°C) permafrost temperatures. Barrow is located within the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain and has a mean annual air temperature of -12.6°C, mean annual precipitation of 124 mm, and colder (-8 to -12°C) permafrost temperatures. This presentation focuses on the study site located at the U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Permafrost Experiment Station, Fairbanks. The experiment station was established in 1945 and consists of 135 acres of ice-rich permafrost soils generally present to a depth of 60 m with an active layer that varies from 55 to 85 cm in undisturbed areas. The site has a smooth, gentle slope to the west, providing good surface drainage except at the lowest elevations where saturated conditions can exist. Soils consist of tan silt and wind blown loess near the surface and grey silt at depths below 1.4 m. Permafrost moisture contents range from 26 to 41 percent by mass for the frozen silts which makes this relatively low moisture content permafrost. Vegetation is typical of the Alaskan Interior-subarctic taiga forest with white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss), and black spruce (P. mariana [Mill] B.S.P) interspersed with lowbush cranberry (Vaccinium oxycoccos L.) and Labrador tea (Ledum groenlandicum Oeder). Feather moss and sphagnum moss are present in the understory. The experimental plot is a hexagonal shaped area (29 by 25 m) where vegetation had previously been removed but has regrown over the last 40-50 years. Soil warming is accomplished by 127 vertically-installed low-energy heating elements installed at spacing of 2.4 m and to a depth of 4 m. Only the lower 1-m is heated to a setpoint +4°C above ambient. The heated area includes a buffer zone resulting in a test area with a diameter of 20 m. This proof-of-concept study will result in improvements to experimental design and thermal modeling ground-truth data as the scientific community plans for possible next-generation climate change experiments in terrestrial permafrost ecosystems.

Effects of winter temperature and summer drought on net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in a temperate peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helfter, Carole; Campbell, Claire; Dinsmore, Kerry; Drewer, Julia; Coyle, Mhairi; Anderson, Margaret; Skiba, Ute; Nemitz, Eiko; Billett, Michael; Sutton, Mark

2014-05-01

Northern peatlands are one of the most important global sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2); their ability to sequester C is a natural feedback mechanism controlled by climatic variables such as precipitation, temperature, length of growing season and period of snow cover. In the UK it has been predicted that peatlands could become a net source of carbon in response to climate change with climate models predicting a rise in global temperature of ca. 3oC between 1961-1990 and 2100. Land-atmosphere exchange of CO2in peatlands exhibits marked seasonal and inter-annual variations, which have significant short- and long-term effects on carbon sink strength. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 has been measured continuously by eddy-covariance (EC) at Auchencorth Moss (55° 47'32 N, 3° 14'35 W, 267 m a.s.l.), a temperate peatland in central Scotland, since 2002. Auchencorth Moss is a low-lying, ombrotrophic peatland situated ca. 20 km south-west of Edinburgh. Peat depth ranges from 5 m and the site has a mean annual precipitation of 1155 mm. The vegetation present within the flux measurement footprint comprises mixed grass species, heather and substantial areas of moss species (Sphagnum spp. and Polytrichum spp.). The EC system consists of a LiCOR 7000 closed-path infrared gas analyser for the simultaneous measurement of CO2 and water vapour and of a Gill Windmaster Pro ultrasonic anemometer. Over the 10 year period, the site was a consistent yet variable sink of CO2 ranging from -34.1 to -135.9 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1 (mean of -69.1 ± 33.6 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1). Inter-annual variability in NEE was positively correlated to the length of the growing seasons and mean winter air temperature explained 93% of the variability in summertime sink strength, indicating a phenological memory-effect. Plant development and productivity were stunted by colder winters causing a net reduction in the annual carbon sink strength of this peatland where autotrophic processes are thought to be dominant. The site is wet throughout most of the year (water table depth < 5 cm below the peat surface), but there are indications that drought enhanced heterotrophic respiration and depressed gross primary productivity (GPP); a sustained drought during the summer of 2010 (maximum water table depth 36 cm below surface) was accompanied by a two-fold increase in total respiration and a 30% decrease in GPP. The cold preceding winter could also have contributed to lowering GPP, and disentangling the confounding adverse effects of drought and winter climate on GPP is thus not straightforward. Whilst 2010 had the smallest NEE in the 2002-2012 period, the largest values were found for years with warm winters and relatively wet growing seasons. A simple parameterisation of the effects of PAR on GPP of and air temperature on ecosystem respiration, suggest that a rise in air temperature of 1° C between 2012 and 2065 could lead to a 73% increase in the carbon sink strength of the peatland, provided hydrological conditions remain unchanged. This demonstrates that climate change is not likely to change this peatland into a carbon source by 2100.

How do land use intensity, experimentally increased temperature and water level affect methane and nitrous oxide emissions from a drained fen peatland?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinichen, Jan; Eickenscheidt, Tim; Drösler, Matthias

2014-05-01

Rewetting and extensification of peatlands is widely discussed and practiced to reduce losses of CO2 and N2O from drained peat soils. But rewetting is known to carry the risk of increased CH4 emissions. Up to now it is not completely clear how the predicted temperature increase in the face of climate change will alter the N2O and CH4 exchange of grasslands on drained peatland soils in the temperate zone. Therefore we investigated the effects of land use intensity, increased groundwater level, increased temperature and the combination of warming and increased groundwater level on CH4 and N2O exchange of two grassland sites (intensive and extensive grassland) in a drained fen peatland in southern Germany. We set up a factorial design on both land use types, on each three treatments, warming, increased water table level and the combination of warming and increased water table level as well as a control site were established. Temperature was manipulated with open-top chambers (OTCs) and water level manipulation was performed using a pumping system and sheet pile walls. The intensive grassland was cut three times in the year, the extensive grassland once in autumn 2011. Cattle slurry and mineral fertilizer (CAN) were deployed on the intensive grassland. Fluxes of CH4 and N2O were measured biweekly from December 2010 to January 2012 using opaque static closed chambers. The annual mean groundwater level (GWL) of the sites without water level manipulation was -41.5 cm b. g. and -30 cm b. g. at the water level manipulated sites on the intensive grassland. On the extensive grassland the GWL of the sites without water level manipulation was -32 cm b. g. and -21.5 cm b. g. at the water level manipulated sites. Air temperature in 0.2 m was increased in 2011 by 0.7 ° C at the treatments with OTCs on the intensive grassland and by 1.0 ° C at the treatments with OTCs on the extensive grassland respectively. The annual cumulative CH4 exchange ranged from 8.1 ± 3.8 kg C ha-1 yr-1 to 36.3 ± 8.6 kg C ha-1 yr-1on the extensive grassland and from -0.1 ± 0.3 kg C ha-1 yr-1 to 15.0 ± 1.9 kg C ha-1 yr-1 on the intensive grassland. The CH4 emissions of the treatments with increased water level on the intensive grassland were significantly higher compared to the control and warming sites. No significant differences could be observed between CH4 emissions of the treatments on the extensive grassland. However, we found a general significant relationship between CH4 fluxes, groundwater level and temperature. All sites on the intensive grassland show higher annual emissions of N2O compared to the sites on the extensive grassland. The annual cumulative N2O exchange ranged from 3.1 ± 0.5 kg N ha-1 yr-1 to 6.1 ± 0.4 kg N ha-1 yr-1on the intensive grassland and from 0.7 ± 0.1 kg N ha-1 yr-1 to 1.3 ± 0.2 kg N ha-1 yr-1 on the extensive grassland. Significant treatment effects could not be observed for N2O exchange on both land use types.

Temperature and Precipitation trends in Kashmir valley, North Western Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafiq, Mifta Ul; Rasool, Rehana; Ahmed, Pervez; Dimri, A. P.

2018-01-01

Climate change has emerged as an important issue ever to confront mankind. This concern emerges from the fact that our day-to-day activities are leading to impacts on the Earth's atmosphere that has the potential to significantly alter the planet's shield and radiation balance. Developing countries particularly whose income is particularly derived from agricultural activities are at the forefront of bearing repercussions due to changing climate. The present study is an effort to analyze the changing trends of precipitation and temperature variables in Kashmir valley along different elevation zones in the north western part of India. As the Kashmir valley has a rich repository of glaciers with its annual share of precipitation, slight change in the temperature and precipitation regime has far reaching environmental and economic consequences. The results from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data of the period 1980-2014 reveals that the annual mean temperature of Kashmir valley has increased significantly. Accelerated warming has been observed during 1980-2014, with intense warming in the recent years (2001-2014). During the period 1980-2014, steeper increase, in annual mean maximum temperature than annual mean minimum temperature, has been observed. In addition, mean maximum temperature in plain regions has shown higher rate of increase when compared with mountainous areas. In case of mean minimum temperature, mountainous regions have shown higher rate of increase. Analysis of precipitation data for the same period shows a decreasing trend with mountainous regions having the highest rate of decrease which can be quite hazardous for the fragile mountain environment of the Kashmir valley housing a large number of glaciers.

Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selbig, William R.

2015-01-01

The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery.

Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin.

PubMed

Selbig, William R

2015-07-15

The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2°C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Ecosystem carbon storage does not vary with increasing mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests

Treesearch

Paul Selmants; Creighton Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Greg P. Asner

2014-01-01

Theory and experiment agree that climate warming will increase carbon fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The effect of this increased exchange on terrestrial carbon storage is less predictable, with important implications for potential feedbacks to the climate system. We quantified how increased mean annual temperature (MAT) affects ecosystem...

CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland - bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mezghani, Abdelkader; Dobler, Andreas; Haugen, Jan Erik; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Parding, Kajsa M.; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Kardel, Ignacy; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2017-11-01

The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections - Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to a 5 km × 5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971-2000) and two future horizons (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) assuming two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic seasonal bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase steadily by 1 °C until 2021-2050 and by 2 °C until 2071-2100 assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario, this can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071-2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 to 10 % and by 8 to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent, exhibiting spatial variations which depend on the selected season, location, future horizon, and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between -7 % (projected for summer assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario) and +40 % (projected for winter assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario) by the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. The CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at http://dx.doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d.

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: the role of forest dynamics and climate.

PubMed

Sierra, Carlos A; Loescher, Henry W; Harmon, Mark E; Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Perakis, Steven S

2009-10-01

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed approximately 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data.

Climate-simulated raceway pond culturing: quantifying the maximum achievable annual biomass productivity of Chlorella sorokiniana in the contiguous USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huesemann, M.; Chavis, A.; Edmundson, S.

Chlorella sorokiniana (DOE 1412) emerged as one of the most promising microalgae strains from the NAABB consortium project, with a remarkable doubling time under optimal conditions of 2.57 hr-1. However, its maximum achievable annual biomass productivity in outdoor ponds in the contiguous United States remained unknown. In order to address this knowledge gap, this alga was cultured in indoor LED-lighted and temperature-controlled raceways in nutrient replete freshwater (BG-11) medium at pH 7 under conditions simulating the daily sunlight intensity and water temperature fluctuations during three seasons in Southern Florida, an optimal outdoor pond culture location for this organism identified bymore » biomass growth modeling. Prior strain characterization indicated that the average maximum specific growth rate (µmax) at 36 ºC declined continuously with pH, with µmax corresponding to 5.92, 5.83, 4.89, and 4.21 day-1 at pH 6, 7, 8, and 9, respectively. In addition, the maximum specific growth rate declined nearly linearly with increasing salinity until no growth was observed above 35 g/L NaCl. In the climate-simulated culturing studies, the volumetric ash-free dry weight-based biomass productivities during the linear growth phase were 57, 69, and 97 mg/L-day for 30-year average light and temperature simulations for January (winter), March (spring), and July (summer), respectively, which corresponds to average areal productivities of 11.6, 14.1, and 19.9 g/m2-day at a constant pond depth of 20.5 cm. The photosynthetic efficiencies (PAR) in the three climate-simulated pond culturing experiments ranged from 4.1 to 5.1%. The annual biomass productivity was estimated as ca. 15 g/m2-day, nearly double the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) 2015 State of Technology annual cultivation productivity of 8.5 g/m2-day, but this is still significantly below the projected 2022 target of ca. 25 g/m2-day (U.S. DOE, 2016) for economic microalgal biofuel production, indicating the need for additional research in strain biology and system engineering.« less

Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Reanalysis and In-situ Surface Air Temperature over Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfaye, T.

2017-12-01

Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye*1, C.T. Dhanya 2,and A.K. Gosain3 1Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 2Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India, *e-mail: tewodros2002@gmail.com Abstract: Water resources management and modelling studies are often constrained by the scarcity of observed data, especially of the two major variables i.e., precipitation and temperature. Modellers, hence, rely on reanalysis datasets as a substitute; though its performance heavily vary depending on the data availability and regional characteristics. The present study aims at examining the ability of frequently used reanalysis datasets in capturing the spatiotemporal characteristics of maximum and minimum surface temperatures over Ethiopia and to highlight the biases, if any, in these over Ethiopian region. We considered ERA-Interim, NCEP 2, MERRA and CFSR reanalysis datasets and compared these with temperature observations from 15 synoptic stations spread over Ethiopia. In addition to the long term averages and annual cycle, a critical comparison of various extreme indices such as diurnal temperature range, warm days, warm nights, cool days, cool nights, summer days and tropical nights are also undertaken. Our results indicate that, the performance of CFSR followed by NCEP 2 is better in capturing majority of the aspects. ERA-Interim suffers a huge additive bias in the simulation of various aspects of minimum temperature in all the stations considered; while its performance is better for maximum temperature. The inferior performance of ERA-Interim is noted to be only because of the difficulty in simulating minimum temperature. Key words: ERA Interim; NCEP Reanalysis; MERRA; CFSR; Diurnal temperature range; reanalysis performance.

Shallow bedrock limits groundwater seepage-based headwater climate refugia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Martin A.; Lane, John W.; Snyder, Craig D.; White, Eric A.; Johnson, Zachary; Nelms, David L.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.

2018-01-01

Groundwater/surface-water exchanges in streams are inexorably linked to adjacent aquifer dynamics. As surface-water temperatures continue to increase with climate warming, refugia created by groundwater connectivity is expected to enable cold water fish species to survive. The shallow alluvial aquifers that source groundwater seepage to headwater streams, however, may also be sensitive to seasonal and long-term air temperature dynamics. Depth to bedrock can directly influence shallow aquifer flow and thermal sensitivity, but is typically ill-defined along the stream corridor in steep mountain catchments. We employ rapid, cost-effective passive seismic measurements to evaluate the variable thickness of the shallow colluvial and alluvial aquifer sediments along a headwater stream supporting cold water-dependent brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in Shenandoah National Park, VA, USA. Using a mean depth to bedrock of 2.6 m, numerical models predicted strong sensitivity of shallow aquifer temperature to the downward propagation of surface heat. The annual temperature dynamics (annual signal amplitude attenuation and phase shift) of potential seepage sourced from the shallow modeled aquifer were compared to several years of paired observed stream and air temperature records. Annual stream water temperature patterns were found to lag local air temperature by ∼8–19 d along the stream corridor, indicating that thermal exchange between the stream and shallow groundwater is spatially variable. Locations with greater annual signal phase lag were also associated with locally increased amplitude attenuation, further suggestion of year-round buffering of channel water temperature by groundwater seepage. Numerical models of shallow groundwater temperature that incorporate regional expected climate warming trends indicate that the summer cooling capacity of this groundwater seepage will be reduced over time, and lower-elevation stream sections may no longer serve as larger-scale climate refugia for cold water fish species, even with strong groundwater discharge.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed

Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Schuurman, Gregor W; Monahan, William B; Ziesler, Pamela S

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979-2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041-2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67-77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8-23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13-31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation.

The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale.

PubMed

Hursh, Andrew; Ballantyne, Ashley; Cooper, Leila; Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; Watts, Jennifer

2017-05-01

Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr -1 , but also highlight regions of uncertainty where more observations are required or environmental controls are hard to constrain. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed Central

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Monahan, William B.; Ziesler, Pamela S.

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979–2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041–2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67–77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8–23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13–31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation. PMID:26083361

Global and Hemispheric Annual Temperature Variations Between 1854 and 1991 (revised 1994) (NDP-022)

DOE Data Explorer

Jones, P. D. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Wigley, T. M. L. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Wright, P. B. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom

1994-01-01

This data set contains estimates of global and hemispheric annual temperature variations, relative to a 1950 through 1979 reference period, for 1861 through 1991. The estimates are based on corrected land and ocean data. Land data were derived from meteorological data and fixed-position weather-ship data that were corrected for nonclimatic errors, such as station shifts and/or instrument changes. The marine data used were those in the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) compilation, which with updates covers to 1986. Updates to 1991 were made with hemispheric sea-surface temperature estimates produced by the U.K. Meteorological Office. Each record includes year and six annual temperature variations: one estimate each for the globe, the Northern Hemisphere, and the Southern Hemisphere and another estimate each that reflects an adjustment to account for the influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation events. The data are in one file of 13 kB.

Global patterns of the isotopic composition of soil and plant nitrogen

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amundson, Ronald; Austin, A.T.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Yoo, K.; Matzek, V.; Kendall, C.; Uebersax, A.; Brenner, D.; Baisden, W.T.

2003-01-01

We compiled new and published data on the natural abundance N isotope composition (??15N values) of soil and plant organic matter from around the world. Across a broad range of climate and ecosystem types, we found that soil and plant ??15N values systematically decreased with increasing mean annual precipitation (MAP) and decreasing mean annual temperature (MAT). Because most undisturbed soils are near N steady state, the observations suggest that an increasing fraction of ecosystem N losses are 15N-depleted forms (NO3, N2O, etc.) with decreasing MAP and increasing MAT. Wetter and colder ecosystems appear to be more efficient in conserving and recycling mineral N. Globally, plant ??15N values are more negative than soils, but the difference Nitrogen isotopes reflect time integrated measures of the controls on N storage that are critical for predictions of how these ecosystems will respond to human-mediated disturbances of the global N cycle.

Recharge estimation in semi-arid karst catchments: Central West Bank, Palestine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jebreen, Hassan; Wohnlich, Stefan; Wisotzky, Frank; Banning, Andre; Niedermayr, Andrea; Ghanem, Marwan

2018-03-01

Knowledge of groundwater recharge constitutes a valuable tool for sustainable management in karst systems. In this respect, a quantitative evaluation of groundwater recharge can be considered a pre-requisite for the optimal operation of groundwater resources systems, particular for semi-arid areas. This paper demonstrates the processes affecting recharge in Palestine aquifers. The Central Western Catchment is one of the main water supply sources in the West Bank. Quantification of potential recharge rates are estimated using chloride mass balance (CMB) and empirical recharge equations over the catchment. The results showing the spatialized recharge rate, which ranges from 111-216 mm/year, representing 19-37% of the long-term mean annual rainfall. Using Water Balance models and climatological data (e. g. solar radiation, monthly temperature, average monthly relative humidity and precipitation), actual evapotranspiration (AET) is estimated. The mean annual actual evapotranspiration was about 66-70% of precipitation.

Changing seasonality patterns in Central Europe from Miocene Climate Optimum to Miocene Climate Transition deduced from the Crassostrea isotope archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harzhauser, Mathias; Piller, Werner E.; Müllegger, Stefan; Grunert, Patrick; Micheels, Arne

2011-03-01

The Western Tethyan estuarine oyster Crassostrea gryphoides is an excellent climate archive due to its large size and rapid growth. It is geologically long lived and allows a stable isotope-based insight into climatic trends during the Miocene. Herein we utilised the climate archive of 5 oyster shells from the Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO) and the subsequent Miocene Climate Transition (MCT) to evaluate changes of seasonality patterns. MCO shells exhibit highly regular seasonal rhythms of warm-wet and dry-cool seasons. Optimal conditions resulted in extraordinary growth rates of the oysters. δ 13C profiles are in phase with δ 18O although phytoplankton blooms may cause a slight offset. Estuarine waters during the MCO in Central Europe display a seasonal temperature range of c. 9-10 °C. Absolute water temperatures have ranged from 17 to 19 °C during cool seasons and up to 28 °C in warm seasons. Already during the early phase of the MCO, the growth rates are distinctly declining, although gigantic and extremely old shells have been formed at that time. Still, a very regular and well expressed seasonality is dominating the isotope profiles, but episodically occurring extreme climate events influence the environments. The seasonal temperature range is still c. 9 °C but the cool season temperature seems to be slightly lower (16 °C) and the warm season water temperature does not exceed c. 25 °C. In the later MCT at c. 12.5-12.0 Ma the seasonality pattern is breaking down and is replaced by successions of dry years with irregular precipitation events. No correlation between δ 18O and δ 13C is documented maybe due to a suboptimal nutrition level which would explain the low growth rates and small sizes. The amplitude of seasonal temperature range is decreasing to 5-8 °C. No clear cooling trend can be postulated for that time as the winter season water temperatures range from 15 to 20 °C. This may point to unstable precipitation rhythms on a multi-annual to decadal scale as main difference between MCO and MCT climates in Central Europe instead of a simple temperature decline scenario.

[Spatio-temporal analysis of the biophysical and ecological conditions of Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) in the northeast region of Colombia].

PubMed

Badel-Mogollón, Jaime; Rodríguez-Figueroa, Laura; Parra-Henao, Gabriel

2017-03-29

Due to the lack of information regarding biophysical and spatio-temporal conditions (hydrometheorologic and vegetal coverage density) in areas with Triatoma dimidiata in the Colombian departments of Santander and Boyacá, there is a need to elucidate the association patterns of these variables to determine the distribution and control of this species. To make a spatio-temporal analysis of biophysical variables related to the distribution of T. dimidiate observed in the northeast region of Colombia. We used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) data bases registering vector presence and hydrometheorologic data. We studied the variables of environmental temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and vegetal coverage density at regional and local levels, and we conducted spatial geostatistic, descriptive statistical and Fourier temporal series analyses. Temperatures two meters above the ground and on covered surface ranged from 14,5°C to 18,8°C in the areas with the higher density of T. dimidiata. The environmental temperature fluctuated between 30 and 32°C. Vegetal coverage density and rainfall showed patterns of annual and biannual peaks. Relative humidity values fluctuated from 66,8 to 85,1%. Surface temperature and soil coverage were the variables that better explained the life cycle of T. dimidiata in the area. High relative humidity promoted the seek of shelters and an increase of the geographic distribution in the annual and biannual peaks of regional rainfall. The ecologic and anthropic conditions suggest that T. dimidiata is a highly resilient species.

Desulfobacter psychrotolerans sp. nov., a new psychrotolerant sulfate-reducing bacterium and descriptions of its physiological response to temperature changes.

PubMed

Tarpgaard, Irene H; Boetius, Antje; Finster, Kai

2006-01-01

A psychrotrolerant acetate-oxidizing sulfate-reducing bacterium (strain akvb(T)) was isolated from sediment from the northern part of The North Sea with annual temperature fluctuations between 8 and 14 degrees C. Of the various substrates tested, strain akvb(T) grew exclusively by the oxidation of acetate coupled to the reduction of sulfate. The cells were motile, thick rods with round ends and grew in dense aggregates. Strain akvb(T) grew at temperatures ranging from -3.6 to 26.3 degrees C. Optimal growth was observed at 20 degrees C. The highest cell specific sulfate reduction rate of 6.2 fmol cell(-1) d(-1) determined by the (35)SO(2-)(40) method was measured at 26 degrees C. The temperature range of short-term sulfate reduction rates exceeded the temperature range of growth by 5 degrees C. The Arrhenius relationship for the temperature dependence of growth and sulfate reduction was linear, with two distinct slopes below the optimum temperatures of both processes. The critical temperature was 6.4 degrees C. The highest growth yield (4.3-4.5 g dry weight mol(-1) acetate) was determined at temperatures between 5 and 15 degrees C. The cellular fatty acid composition was determined with cultures grown at 4 and 20 degrees C, respectively. The relative proportion of cellular unsaturated fatty acids (e.g. 16:1omega7c) was higher in cells grown at 4 degrees C than in cells grown at 20 degrees C. The physiological responses to temperature changes showed that strain akvb(T) was well adapted to the temperature regime of the environment from which it was isolated. Phylogenetic analysis showed that strain akvb(T) is closest related to Desulfobacter hydrogenophilus, with a 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity of 98.6%. DNA-DNA-hybridization showed a similarity of 32% between D. hydrogenophilus and strain akvb(T). Based on phenotypic and DNA-based characteristics we propose that strain akvb(T) is a member of a new species, Desulfobacter psychrotolerans sp. nov.

Response to climate change of montane herbaceous plants in the genus Rhodiola predicted by ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

You, Jianling; Qin, Xiaoping; Ranjitkar, Sailesh; Lougheed, Stephen C; Wang, Mingcheng; Zhou, Wen; Ouyang, Dongxin; Zhou, Yin; Xu, Jianchu; Zhang, Wenju; Wang, Yuguo; Yang, Ji; Song, Zhiping

2018-04-12

Climate change profoundly influences species distributions. These effects are evident in poleward latitudinal range shifts for many taxa, and upward altitudinal range shifts for alpine species, that resulted from increased annual global temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 22,000 BP). For the latter, the ultimate consequence of upward shifts may be extinction as species in the highest alpine ecosystems can migrate no further, a phenomenon often characterized as "nowhere to go". To predict responses to climate change of the alpine plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to estimate the range shifts of 14 Rhodiola species, beginning with the Last Interglacial (ca. 120,000-140,000 BP) through to 2050. Distributions of Rhodiola species appear to be shaped by temperature-related variables. The southeastern QTP, and especially the Hengduan Mountains, were the origin and center of distribution for Rhodiola, and also served as refugia during the LGM. Under future climate scenario in 2050, Rhodiola species might have to migrate upward and northward, but many species would expand their ranges contra the prediction of the "nowhere to go" hypothesis, caused by the appearance of additional potential habitat concomitant with the reduction of permafrost with climate warming.

Quantification of soil respiration in forest ecosystems across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xinzhang; Peng, Changhui; Zhao, Zhengyong; Zhang, Zhiting; Guo, Baohua; Wang, Weifeng; Jiang, Hong; Zhu, Qiuan

2014-09-01

We collected 139 estimates of the annual forest soil CO2 flux and 173 estimates of the Q10 value (the temperature sensitivity) assembled from 90 published studies across Chinese forest ecosystems. We analyzed the annual soil respiration (Rs) rates and the temperature sensitivities of seven forest ecosystems, including evergreen broadleaf forests (EBF), deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF), broadleaf and needleleaf mixed forests (BNMF), evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF), deciduous needleleaf forests (DNF), bamboo forests (BF) and shrubs (SF). The results showed that the mean annual Rs rate was 33.65 t CO2 ha-1 year-1 across Chinese forest ecosystems. Rs rates were significantly different (P < 0.001) among the seven forest types, and were significantly and positively influenced by mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and actual evapotranspiration (AET); but negatively affected by latitude and elevation. The mean Q10 value of 1.28 was lower than the world average (1.4-2.0). The Q10 values derived from the soil temperature at a depth of 5 cm varied among forest ecosystems by an average of 2.46 and significantly decreased with the MAT but increased with elevation and latitude. Moreover, our results suggested that an artificial neural network (ANN) model can effectively predict Rs across Chinese forest ecosystems. This study contributes to better understanding of Rs across Chinese forest ecosystems and their possible responses to global warming.

Phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation in leaf ecophysiological traits of 13 contrasting cork oak populations under different water availabilities.

PubMed

Ramírez-Valiente, Jose Alberto; Sánchez-Gómez, David; Aranda, Ismael; Valladares, Fernando

2010-05-01

Plants distributed across a wide range of environmental conditions are submitted to differential selective pressures. Long-term selection can lead to the development of adaptations to the local environment, generating ecotypic differentiation. Additionally, plant species can cope with this environmental variability by phenotypic plasticity. In this study, we examine the importance of both processes in coping with environmental heterogeneity in the Mediterranean sclerophyllous cork oak Quercus suber. For this purpose, we measured growth and key functional traits at the leaf level in 9-year-old plants across 2 years of contrasting precipitation (2005 and 2006) in a common garden. Plants were grown from acorns originated from 13 populations spanning a wide range of climates along the distribution range of the species. The traits measured were: leaf size (LS), specific leaf area (SLA), carbon isotope discrimination (Delta(13)C) and leaf nitrogen content per unit mass (N(mass)). Inter-population differences in LS, SLA and Delta(13)C were found. These differences were associated with rainfall and temperature at the sites of origin, suggesting local adaptation in response to diverging climates. Additionally, SLA and LS exhibited positive responses to the increase in annual rainfall. Year effect explained 28% of the total phenotypic variance in LS and 2.7% in SLA. There was a significant genotype x environment interaction for shoot growth and a phenotypic correlation between the difference in shoot growth among years and the annual mean temperature at origin. This suggests that populations originating from warm sites can benefit more from wet conditions than populations from cool sites. Finally, we investigated the relationships between functional traits and aboveground growth by several regression models. Our results showed that plants with lower SLA presented larger aboveground growth in a dry year and plants with larger leaf sizes displayed larger growth rates in both years. Overall, the study supports the adaptive value of SLA and LS for cork oak under a Mediterranean climate and their potentially important role for dealing with varying temperature and rainfall regimes through both local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity.

Ice-Covered Lakes in Gale Crater Mars: The Cold and Wet Hypothesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kling, A. M.; Haberle, R. M.; Mckay, C. P.; Bristow, T. F.

2016-01-01

Recent geological discoveries from the Mars Science Laboratory provide evidence that Gale crater may have intermittently hosted a fluvio-lacustine environment during the Hesperian, with individual lakes lasting for a period of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. (Grotzinger et al., Science, 350 (6257), 2015). Estimates of the CO2 content of the atmosphere at the time the Gale sediments formed are far less than needed by any climate model to warm early Mars (Bristow et al., Geology, submitted), given the low solar energy input available at Mars 3.5 Gya. We have therefore explored the possibility that the lakes in Gale during the Hesperian were perennially covered with ice using the Antarctic Lakes as an analog. Using our best estimate for the annual mean surface temperature at Gale at this time (approx. 230K) we computed the thickness of an ice-covered lake. These thickness range from 10-30 meters depending on the ablation rate and ice transparency and would likely inhibit sediments from entering the lake. Thus, a first conclusion is that the ice must not be too cold. Raising the mean temperature to 245K is challenging, but not quite as hard as reaching 273K. We found that a mean annual temperature of 245K ice thicknesses range from 3-10 meters. These values are comparable to the range of those for the Antarctic lakes (3-6 m), and are not implausible. And they are not so thick that sediments cannot penetrate the ice. For the ice-covered lake hypothesis to work, however, a melt water source is needed. This could come from subaqueous melting of a glacial dam in contact with the lakes (as is the case for Lake Untersee) or from seasonal melt water from nearby glaciers (as is the case for the Dry Valley lakes). More work is needed to better assess these possibilities. However, the main advantage of the ice-covered lake model (and the main reason we pursued it) is that it relaxes the requirement for a long-lived active hydrological cycle involving rainfall and runoff, which no climate model is able to produce given known constraints on the early Mars environment.

Relative importance of climate changes at different time scales on net primary productivity-a case study of the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China.

PubMed

Liu, Huiyu; Zhang, Mingyang; Lin, Zhenshan

2017-10-05

Climate changes are considered to significantly impact net primary productivity (NPP). However, there are few studies on how climate changes at multiple time scales impact NPP. With MODIS NPP product and station-based observations of sunshine duration, annual average temperature and annual precipitation, impacts of climate changes at different time scales on annual NPP, have been studied with EEMD (ensemble empirical mode decomposition) method in the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China, during 2000-2013. Moreover, with partial least squares regression (PLSR) model, the relative importance of climatic variables for annual NPP has been explored. The results show that (1) only at quasi 3-year time scale do sunshine duration and temperature have significantly positive relations with NPP. (2) Annual precipitation has no significant relation to NPP by direct comparison, but significantly positive relation at 5-year time scale, which is because 5-year time scale is not the dominant scale of precipitation; (3) the changes of NPP may be dominated by inter-annual variabilities. (4) Multiple time scales analysis will greatly improve the performance of PLSR model for estimating NPP. The variable importance in projection (VIP) scores of sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale, and precipitation at quasi 5-year time scale are greater than 0.8, indicating important for NPP during 2000-2013. However, sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale are much more important. Our results underscore the importance of multiple time scales analysis for revealing the relations of NPP to changing climate.

Body temperature and thermal environment in a generalized arboreal anthropoid, wild mantled howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata).

PubMed

Thompson, Cynthia L; Williams, Susan H; Glander, Kenneth E; Teaford, Mark F; Vinyard, Christopher J

2014-05-01

Free-ranging primates are confronted with the challenge of maintaining an optimal range of body temperatures within a thermally dynamic environment that changes daily, seasonally, and annually. While many laboratory studies have been conducted on primate thermoregulation, we know comparatively little about the thermal pressures primates face in their natural, evolutionarily relevant environment. Such knowledge is critical to understanding the evolution of thermal adaptations in primates and for comparative evaluation of humans' unique thermal adaptations. We examined temperature and thermal environment in free-ranging, mantled howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata) in a tropical dry forest in Guanacaste, Costa Rica. We recorded subcutaneous (Tsc ) and near-animal ambient temperatures (Ta ) from 11 animals over 1586.5 sample hours during wet and dry seasons. Howlers displayed considerable variation in Tsc , which was largely attributable to circadian effects. Despite significant seasonal changes in the ambient thermal environment, howlers showed relatively little evidence for seasonal changes in Tsc . Howlers experienced warm thermal conditions which led to body cooling relative to the environment, and plateaus in Tsc at increasingly warm Ta . They also frequently faced cool thermal conditions (Ta  < Tsc ) in which Tsc was markedly elevated compared with Ta . These data add to a growing body of evidence that non-human primates have more labile body temperatures than humans. Our data additionally support a hypothesis that, despite inhabiting a dry tropical environment, howling monkeys experience both warm and cool thermal pressures. This suggests that thermal challenges may be more prevalent for primates than previously thought, even for species living in nonextreme thermal environments. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Global distribution of vertical wavenumber spectra in the lower stratosphere observed using high-vertical-resolution temperature profiles from COSMIC GPS radio occultation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noersomadi; Tsuda, T.

2016-02-01

We retrieved temperature (T) profiles with a high vertical resolution using the full spectrum inversion (FSI) method from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) GPS radio occultation (GPS-RO) data from January 2007 to December 2009. We studied the characteristics of temperature perturbations in the stratosphere at 20-27 km altitude. This height range does not include a sharp jump in the background Brunt-Väisälä frequency squared (N2) near the tropopause, and it was reasonably stable regardless of season and latitude. We analyzed the vertical wavenumber spectra of gravity waves (GWs) with vertical wavelengths ranging from 0.5 to 3.5 km, and we integrated the (total) potential energy EpT. Another integration of the spectra from 0.5 to 1.75 km was defined as EpS for short vertical wavelength GWs, which was not studied with the conventional geometrical optics (GO) retrievals. We also estimated the logarithmic spectral slope (p) for the saturated portion of spectra with a linear regression fitting from 0.5 to 1.75 km.Latitude and time variations in the spectral parameters were investigated in two longitudinal regions: (a) 90-150° E, where the topography was more complicated, and (b) 170-230° E, which is dominated by oceans. We compared EpT, EpS, and p, with the mean zonal winds (U) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). We also show a ratio of EpS to EpT and discuss the generation source of EpS. EpT and p clearly showed an annual cycle, with their maximum values in winter at 30-50° N in region (a), and 50-70° N in region (b), which was related to the topography. At 30-50° N in region (b), EpT and p exhibited some irregular variations in addition to an annual cycle. In the Southern Hemisphere, we also found an annual oscillation in EpT and p, but it showed a time lag of about 2 months relative to U. Characteristics of EpTand p in the tropical region seem to be related to convective activity. The ratio of EpT to the theoretical model value, assuming saturated GWs, became larger in the equatorial region and over mountainous regions.

Turbine Inlet Air Cooling for Industrial and Aero-derivative Gas Turbine in Malaysia Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordin, A.; Salim, D. A.; Othoman, M. A.; Kamal, S. N. Omar; Tam, Danny; Yusof, M. KY

2017-12-01

The performance of a gas turbine is dependent on the ambient temperature. A higher temperature results in a reduction of the gas turbine’s power output and an increase in heat rate. The warm and humid climate in Malaysia with its high ambient air temperature has an adverse effect on the performance of gas turbine generators. In this paper, the expected effect of turbine inlet air cooling technology on the annual performance of an aero-derivative gas turbine (GE LM6000PD) is compared against that of an industrial gas turbine (GEFr6B.03) using GT Pro software. This study investigated the annual net energy output and the annual net electrical efficiency of a plant with and without turbine inlet air cooling technology. The results show that the aero-derivative gas turbine responds more favorably to turbine inlet air cooling technology, thereby yielding higher annual net energy output and higher net electrical efficiency when compared to the industrial gas turbine.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Foy, Benjamin; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David G.

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been estimating NO2 columns from space for over 10 years, and these have been used to estimate emissions and emission trends for point and area sources all over the world. In this study we evaluate the trends in NO2 columns over 54 cities in the USA and Canada to identify the long term trends due to air quality policies, the impact of the Great Recession, and the weekday-weekend effect. A multiple linear regression model is used to fit annual, seasonal and weekly factors for individual swath retrievals along with the impact of temperature, windmore » speed and pixel size. For most cities, the correlation coefficients of the model fit ranges from 0.47 to 0.76. There have been strong reductions in NO2 columns, with annual decreases of up to 7% per year in most cities. During the years of the Great Recession, NO2 columns were as much as 30% lower than they would have been had they followed the linear annual trend. The analysis yielded insights into the timing of the reductions, with some cities in the northwest and in the east experiencing reductions in 2008 already, and most areas back to where they would have been based on the uniform trend by 2011. The analysis also finds that reductions in columns during the weekend vary significantly from city to city, with a range in reductions of 10%-30% on Saturdays, and 20%-50% on Sundays.« less

Climatic and geographic predictors of life history variation in Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus): A range-wide synthesis.

PubMed

Hileman, Eric T; King, Richard B; Adamski, John M; Anton, Thomas G; Bailey, Robyn L; Baker, Sarah J; Bieser, Nickolas D; Bell, Thomas A; Bissell, Kristin M; Bradke, Danielle R; Campa, Henry; Casper, Gary S; Cedar, Karen; Cross, Matthew D; DeGregorio, Brett A; Dreslik, Michael J; Faust, Lisa J; Harvey, Daniel S; Hay, Robert W; Jellen, Benjamin C; Johnson, Brent D; Johnson, Glenn; Kiel, Brooke D; Kingsbury, Bruce A; Kowalski, Matthew J; Lee, Yu Man; Lentini, Andrew M; Marshall, John C; Mauger, David; Moore, Jennifer A; Paloski, Rori A; Phillips, Christopher A; Pratt, Paul D; Preney, Thomas; Prior, Kent A; Promaine, Andrew; Redmer, Michael; Reinert, Howard K; Rouse, Jeremy D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Sutton, Scott; VanDeWalle, Terry J; Weatherhead, Patrick J; Wynn, Doug; Yagi, Anne

2017-01-01

Elucidating how life history traits vary geographically is important to understanding variation in population dynamics. Because many aspects of ectotherm life history are climate-dependent, geographic variation in climate is expected to have a large impact on population dynamics through effects on annual survival, body size, growth rate, age at first reproduction, size-fecundity relationship, and reproductive frequency. The Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus) is a small, imperiled North American rattlesnake with a distribution centered on the Great Lakes region, where lake effects strongly influence local conditions. To address Eastern Massasauga life history data gaps, we compiled data from 47 study sites representing 38 counties across the range. We used multimodel inference and general linear models with geographic coordinates and annual climate normals as explanatory variables to clarify patterns of variation in life history traits. We found strong evidence for geographic variation in six of nine life history variables. Adult female snout-vent length and neonate mass increased with increasing mean annual precipitation. Litter size decreased with increasing mean temperature, and the size-fecundity relationship and growth prior to first hibernation both increased with increasing latitude. The proportion of gravid females also increased with increasing latitude, but this relationship may be the result of geographically varying detection bias. Our results provide insights into ectotherm life history variation and fill critical data gaps, which will inform Eastern Massasauga conservation efforts by improving biological realism for models of population viability and climate change.

Climatic and geographic predictors of life history variation in Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus): A range-wide synthesis

PubMed Central

King, Richard B.; Adamski, John M.; Anton, Thomas G.; Bailey, Robyn L.; Baker, Sarah J.; Bieser, Nickolas D.; Bell, Thomas A.; Bissell, Kristin M.; Bradke, Danielle R.; Campa, Henry; Casper, Gary S.; Cedar, Karen; Cross, Matthew D.; DeGregorio, Brett A.; Dreslik, Michael J.; Faust, Lisa J.; Harvey, Daniel S.; Hay, Robert W.; Jellen, Benjamin C.; Johnson, Brent D.; Johnson, Glenn; Kiel, Brooke D.; Kingsbury, Bruce A.; Kowalski, Matthew J.; Lee, Yu Man; Lentini, Andrew M.; Marshall, John C.; Mauger, David; Moore, Jennifer A.; Paloski, Rori A.; Phillips, Christopher A.; Pratt, Paul D.; Preney, Thomas; Prior, Kent A.; Promaine, Andrew; Redmer, Michael; Reinert, Howard K.; Rouse, Jeremy D.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Sutton, Scott; VanDeWalle, Terry J.; Weatherhead, Patrick J.; Wynn, Doug; Yagi, Anne

2017-01-01

Elucidating how life history traits vary geographically is important to understanding variation in population dynamics. Because many aspects of ectotherm life history are climate-dependent, geographic variation in climate is expected to have a large impact on population dynamics through effects on annual survival, body size, growth rate, age at first reproduction, size–fecundity relationship, and reproductive frequency. The Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus) is a small, imperiled North American rattlesnake with a distribution centered on the Great Lakes region, where lake effects strongly influence local conditions. To address Eastern Massasauga life history data gaps, we compiled data from 47 study sites representing 38 counties across the range. We used multimodel inference and general linear models with geographic coordinates and annual climate normals as explanatory variables to clarify patterns of variation in life history traits. We found strong evidence for geographic variation in six of nine life history variables. Adult female snout-vent length and neonate mass increased with increasing mean annual precipitation. Litter size decreased with increasing mean temperature, and the size–fecundity relationship and growth prior to first hibernation both increased with increasing latitude. The proportion of gravid females also increased with increasing latitude, but this relationship may be the result of geographically varying detection bias. Our results provide insights into ectotherm life history variation and fill critical data gaps, which will inform Eastern Massasauga conservation efforts by improving biological realism for models of population viability and climate change. PMID:28196149

Regional hydrologic response of loblolly pine to air temperature and precipitation changes

Treesearch

Steven G. McNulty; James M. Vose; Wayne T. Swank

1997-01-01

Large deviations in average annual air temperatures and total annual precipitation were observed across the Southern United States during the last 50 years, and these fluctuations could become even larger during the next century. The authors used PnET-IIS, a monthly time-step forest process model that uses soil, vegetation, and climate inputs to assess the influence of...

Observed Screen (Air) and GCM Surface/Screen Temperatures: Implications for Outgoing Longwave Fluxes at the Surface.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.

1995-05-01

There is direct evidence that excess net radiation calculated in general circulation models at continental surfaces [of about 11-17 W m2 (20%-27%) on an annual ~1 is not only due to overestimates in annual incoming shortwave fluxes [of 9-18 W m2 (6%-9%)], but also to underestimates in outgoing longwave fluxes. The bias in the outgoing longwave flux is deduced from a comparison of screen-air temperature observations, available as a global climatology of mean monthly values, and model-calculated surface and screen-air temperatures. An underestimate in the screen temperature computed in general circulation models over continents, of about 3 K on an annual basis, implies an underestimate in the outgoing longwave flux, averaged in six models under study, of 11-15 W m2 (3%-4%). For a set of 22 inland stations studied previously, the residual bias on an annual basis (the residual is the net radiation minus incoming shortwave plus outgoing longwave) varies between 18 and 23 W m2 for the models considered. Additional biases in one or both of the reflected shortwave and incoming longwave components cannot be ruled out.

Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future maximum and minimum temperature over the Haihe River Bain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Tiezhu; Shen, Zhenyao; Heng, Lee; Dercon, Gerd

2016-04-01

Future climate change information is important to formulate adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. In this study, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was established using both NCEP reanalysis data and ground observations (daily maximum and minimum temperature) during the period 1971-2010, and then calibrated model was applied to generate the future maximum and minimum temperature projections using predictors from the two CMIP5 models (MPI-ESM-LR and CNRM-CM5) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) during the period 2011-2100 for the Haihe River Basin, China. Compared to the baseline period, future change in annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperature was computed after bias correction. The spatial distribution and trend change of annual maximum and minimum temperature were also analyzed using ensemble projections. The results shows that: (1)The downscaling model had a good applicability on reproducing daily and monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature over the whole basin. (2) Bias was observed when using historical predictors from CMIP5 models and the performance of CNRM-CM5 was a little worse than that of MPI-ESM-LR. (3) The change in annual mean maximum and minimum temperature under the two scenarios in 2020s, 2050s and 2070s will increase and magnitude of maximum temperature will be higher than minimum temperature. (4) The increase in temperature in the mountains and along the coastline is remarkably high than the other parts of the studies basin. (5) For annual maximum and minimum temperature, the significant upward trend will be obtained under RCP 8.5 scenario and the magnitude will be 0.37 and 0.39 ℃ per decade, respectively; the increase in magnitude under RCP 2.6 scenario will be upward in 2020s and then decrease in 2050s and 2070s, and the magnitude will be 0.01 and 0.01℃ per decade, respectively.

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, A.; Moore, J.C.; Cui, Xingquan; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2016-01-01

 We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135  ×  104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101  × 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128  ×  104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0 °C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.; Cui, X.; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D. M.; McGuire, A. D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2016-02-01

We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 × 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0 °C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Tree growth-climate relationships in a forest-plot network on Mediterranean mountains.

PubMed

Fyllas, Nikolaos M; Christopoulou, Anastasia; Galanidis, Alexandros; Michelaki, Chrysanthi Z; Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G; Fulé, Peter Z; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2017-11-15

In this study we analysed a novel tree-growth dataset, inferred from annual ring-width measurements, of 7 forest tree species from 12 mountain regions in Greece, in order to identify tree growth - climate relationships. The tree species of interest were: Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Picea abies, Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus frainetto growing across a gradient of climate conditions with mean annual temperature ranging from 5.7 to 12.6°C and total annual precipitation from 500 to 950mm. In total, 344 tree cores (one per tree) were analysed across a network of 20 study sites. We found that water availability during the summer period (May-August) was a strong predictor of interannual variation in tree growth for all study species. Across species and sites, annual tree growth was positively related to summer season precipitation (P SP ). The responsiveness of annual growth to P SP was tightly related to species and site specific measurements of instantaneous photosynthetic water use efficiency (WUE), suggesting that the growth of species with efficient water use is more responsive to variations in precipitation during the dry months of the year. Our findings support the importance of water availability for the growth of mountainous Mediterranean tree species and highlight that future reductions in precipitation are likely to lead to reduced tree-growth under climate change conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The differential response of photosynthesis to high temperature for a boreal and temperate Populus species relates to differences in Rubisco activation and Rubisco activase properties.

PubMed

Hozain, Moh'd I; Salvucci, Michael E; Fokar, Mohamed; Holaday, A Scott

2010-01-01

Significant inhibition of photosynthesis occurs at temperatures only a few degrees (

Current and Projected Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality in Rhode Island.

PubMed

Kingsley, Samantha L; Eliot, Melissa N; Gold, Julia; Vanderslice, Robert R; Wellenius, Gregory A

2016-04-01

Climate change is expected to cause increases in heat-related mortality, especially among the elderly and very young. However, additional studies are needed to clarify the effects of heat on morbidity across all age groups and across a wider range of temperatures. We aimed to estimate the impact of current and projected future temperatures on morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. We used Poisson regression models to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and rates of all-cause and heat-related emergency department (ED) admissions and all-cause mortality. We then used downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; a standardized set of climate change model simulations) projections to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality that would be observed if this population were exposed to the temperatures projected for 2046-2053 and 2092-2099 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5 and 4.5. Between 2005 and 2012, an increase in maximum daily temperature from 75 to 85°F was associated with 1.3% and 23.9% higher rates of all-cause and heat-related ED visits, respectively. The corresponding effect estimate for all-cause mortality from 1999 through 2011 was 4.0%. The association with all-cause ED admissions was strongest for those < 18 or ≥ 65 years of age, whereas the association with heat-related ED admissions was most pronounced among 18- to 64-year-olds. If this Rhode Island population were exposed to temperatures projected under RCP 8.5 for 2092-2099, we estimate that there would be 1.2% (range, 0.6-1.6%) and 24.4% (range, 6.9-41.8%) more all-cause and heat-related ED admissions, respectively, and 1.6% (range, 0.8-2.1%) more deaths annually between April and October. With all other factors held constant, our findings suggest that the current population of Rhode Island would experience substantially higher morbidity and mortality if maximum daily temperatures increase further as projected. Kingsley SL, Eliot MN, Gold J, Vanderslice RR, Wellenius GA. 2016. Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. Environ Health Perspect 124:460-467; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408826.

Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Julie A. Vano,; Bradley Udall,; Cayan, Daniel; Jonathan T Overpeck,; Brekke, Levi D.; Das, Tapash; Hartmann, Holly C.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Hoerling, Martin P; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morino, Kiyomi; Webb, Robert S.; Werner, Kevin; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2014-01-01

The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.

Topographically driven differences in energy and water constrain climatic control on forest carbon sequestration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swetnam, Tyson L.; Brooks, Paul D.; Barnard, Holly R.

Mountains are vital to ecosystems and human society given their influence on global carbon and water cycles. Yet the extent to which topography regulates montane forest carbon uptake and storage remains poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we compared forest aboveground carbon loading to topographic metrics describing energy balance and water availability across three headwater catchments of the Boulder Creek Watershed, Colorado, USA. The catchments range from 1800 to 3500 m above mean sea level with 46–102 cm/yr mean annual precipitation and -1.2° to 12.3°C mean annual temperature. In all three catchments, we found mean forest carbon loading consistentlymore » increased from ridges (27 ± 19 Mg C ha) to valley bottoms (60 ± 28 Mg C ha). Low topographic positions held up to 185 ± 76 Mg C ha, more than twice the peak value of upper positions. Toe slopes fostered disproportionately high net carbon uptake relative to other topographic positions. Carbon storage was on average 20–40 Mg C ha greater on north to northeast aspects than on south to southwest aspects, a pattern most pronounced in the highest elevation, coldest and wettest catchment. Both the peak and mean aboveground carbon storage of the three catchments, crossing an 11°C range in temperature and doubling of local precipitation, defied the expectation of an optimal elevation-gradient climatic zone for net primary production. These results have important implications for models of forest sensitivity to climate change, as well as to predicted estimates of continental carbon reservoirs.« less

Topographically driven differences in energy and water constrain climatic control on forest carbon sequestration

DOE PAGES

Swetnam, Tyson L.; Brooks, Paul D.; Barnard, Holly R.; ...

2017-04-21

Mountains are vital to ecosystems and human society given their influence on global carbon and water cycles. Yet the extent to which topography regulates montane forest carbon uptake and storage remains poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we compared forest aboveground carbon loading to topographic metrics describing energy balance and water availability across three headwater catchments of the Boulder Creek Watershed, Colorado, USA. The catchments range from 1800 to 3500 m above mean sea level with 46–102 cm/yr mean annual precipitation and -1.2° to 12.3°C mean annual temperature. In all three catchments, we found mean forest carbon loading consistentlymore » increased from ridges (27 ± 19 Mg C ha) to valley bottoms (60 ± 28 Mg C ha). Low topographic positions held up to 185 ± 76 Mg C ha, more than twice the peak value of upper positions. Toe slopes fostered disproportionately high net carbon uptake relative to other topographic positions. Carbon storage was on average 20–40 Mg C ha greater on north to northeast aspects than on south to southwest aspects, a pattern most pronounced in the highest elevation, coldest and wettest catchment. Both the peak and mean aboveground carbon storage of the three catchments, crossing an 11°C range in temperature and doubling of local precipitation, defied the expectation of an optimal elevation-gradient climatic zone for net primary production. These results have important implications for models of forest sensitivity to climate change, as well as to predicted estimates of continental carbon reservoirs.« less

The responses of microbial temperature relationships to seasonal change and winter warming in a temperate grassland.

PubMed

Birgander, Johanna; Olsson, Pål Axel; Rousk, Johannes

2018-01-18

Microorganisms dominate the decomposition of organic matter and their activities are strongly influenced by temperature. As the carbon (C) flux from soil to the atmosphere due to microbial activity is substantial, understanding temperature relationships of microbial processes is critical. It has been shown that microbial temperature relationships in soil correlate with the climate, and microorganisms in field experiments become more warm-tolerant in response to chronic warming. It is also known that microbial temperature relationships reflect the seasons in aquatic ecosystems, but to date this has not been investigated in soil. Although climate change predictions suggest that temperatures will be mostly affected during winter in temperate ecosystems, no assessments exist of the responses of microbial temperature relationships to winter warming. We investigated the responses of the temperature relationships of bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in a temperate grassland to seasonal change, and to 2 years' winter warming. The warming treatments increased winter soil temperatures by 5-6°C, corresponding to 3°C warming of the mean annual temperature. Microbial temperature relationships and temperature sensitivities (Q 10 ) could be accurately established, but did not respond to winter warming or to seasonal temperature change, despite significant shifts in the microbial community structure. The lack of response to winter warming that we demonstrate, and the strong response to chronic warming treatments previously shown, together suggest that it is the peak annual soil temperature that influences the microbial temperature relationships, and that temperatures during colder seasons will have little impact. Thus, mean annual temperatures are poor predictors for microbial temperature relationships. Instead, the intensity of summer heat-spells in temperate systems is likely to shape the microbial temperature relationships that govern the soil-atmosphere C exchange. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seasonal variation of air temperature at the Mendel Station, James Ross Island in the period of 2006-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laska, Kamil; Prošek, Pavel; Budík, Ladislav

2010-05-01

Key words: air temperature, seasonal variation, James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula Recently, significant role of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation variation on positive trend of near surface air temperature along the Antarctic Peninsula has been reported by many authors. However, small number of the permanent meteorological stations located on the Peninsula coast embarrasses a detail analysis. It comprises analysis of spatiotemporal variability of climatic conditions and validation of regional atmospheric climate models. However, geographical location of the Czech Johann Gregor Mendel Station (hereafter Mendel Station) newly established on the northern ice-free part of the James Ross Island provides an opportunity to fill the gap. There are recorded important meteorological characteristics which allow to evaluate specific climatic regime of the region and their impact on the ice-shelf disintegration and glacier retreat. Mendel Station (63°48'S, 57°53'W) is located on marine terrace at the altitude of 7 m. In 2006, a monitoring network of several automatic weather stations was installed at different altitudes ranging from the seashore level up to mesas and tops of glaciers (514 m a.s.l.). In this contribution, a seasonal variation of near surface air temperature at the Mendel Station in the period of 2006-2009 is presented. Annual mean air temperature was -7.2 °C. Seasonal mean temperature ranged from +1.4 °C (December-February) to -17.7 °C (June-August). Frequently, the highest temperature occurred in the second half of January. It reached maximum of +8.1 °C. Sudden changes of atmospheric circulation pattern during winter caused a large interdiurnal variability of air temperature with the amplitude of 30 °C.

Development of an effective and potentially scalable weather generator for temperature and growing degree days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, Elham; Friederichs, Petra; Keller, Jan; Hense, Andreas

2016-05-01

The main purpose of this study is to develop an easy-to-use weather generator (WG) for the downscaling of gridded data to point measurements at regional scale. The WG is applied to daily averaged temperatures and annual growing degree days (GDD) of wheat. This particular choice of variables is motivated by future investigations on temperature impacts as the most important climate variable for wheat cultivation under irrigation in Iran. The proposed statistical downscaling relates large-scale ERA-40 reanalysis to local daily temperature and annual GDD. Long-term local observations in Iran are used at 16 synoptic stations from 1961 to 2001, which is the common period with ERA-40 data. We perform downscaling using two approaches: the first is a linear regression model that uses the ERA-40 fingerprints (FP) defined by the squared correlation with local variability, and the second employs a linear multiple regression (MR) analysis to relate the large-scale information at the neighboring grid points to the station data. Extending the usual downscaling, we implement a WG providing uncertainty information and realizations of the local temperatures and GDD by adding a Gaussian random noise. ERA-40 reanalysis well represents the local daily temperature as well as the annual GDD variability. For 2-m temperature, the FPs are more localized during the warm compared with the cold season. While MR is slightly superior for daily temperature time series, FP seems to perform best for annual GDD. We further assess the quality of the WGs applying probabilistic verification scores like the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the respective skill score. They clearly demonstrate the superiority of WGs compared with a deterministic downscaling.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

PubMed Central

Roberts, James J.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans. PMID:28683083

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James J.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Schmidt, Travis S.; Walters, David M.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change.

PubMed

Roberts, James J; Fausch, Kurt D; Schmidt, Travis S; Walters, David M

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Temporal and spatial variation in habitat characteristics of Tilefish (Lopholatilus Chamaeleonticeps) off the east coast of Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Able, Kenneth W.; Grimes, Churchill B.; Jones, Robert; Twichell, David C.

1993-01-01

The tilefish, Lopholatilus chamaeleonticeps, constructs burrows in carbonate sediments off the central east coast of Florida at similar temperatures (8.6-15.4°C) and in similar sediment textures (high proportion of silts and clays) to conspecifics in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. The depths at which we observed tile fish off Florida (150-290 m), based on submersible observations and sidescan sonar operations during 1983 and 1984, were similar to those recorded in 1975-1977 (137-266 m) before the inception of the directed fishery. Both are similar to the range observed in the Mid-Atlantic Bight although tilefish there can be found at shallower and slightly deeper depths (80-305 m). The largest burrows off Florida (1.5-m diameter) were smaller than those observed in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (up to 5 m). The behavior of tile fish around the burrow and the invertebrates and fishes co-inhabiting the burrows off Florida are nearly identical to those in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Despite the relatively narrow annual temperature range observed off Florida, abrupt changes in temperatures (+6°C) occurred over a 48-h period based on thermograph records. Our observations, and those of others from several areas along the U.S. east coast, suggest that this species probably constructs burrows throughout its geographic range, and that temperature and sediment composition largely determine its distribution. Exclusion experiments off Florida, along with prior removal experiments in the Mid-Atlantic Bight, indicate that tilefish construct and maintain the burrows.

Mg/Ca-temperature calibration and flux variability of Globigerinoides ruber based on a bi-weekly resolved sediment trap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteagudo, M. M.; Weldeab, S.; Lea, D. W.; Karl, D. M.; Rosenthal, Y.

2016-12-01

Planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca is one of the most widely-applied proxies for sea surface temperature reconstructions. Current calibrations yield a temperature sensitivity of 9.0 ± 1.0% Mg/Ca per °C (1-2). According to culture studies (3-4), salinity may also influence Mg/Ca ratios by 3.3 ± 1.7% per salinity unit (4), though this effect has not been verified by a field-based study. Paired Mg/Ca-δ18O and faunal fluxes of Globigerinoides ruber (sensu lato) were measured from sediment trap samples at the Hawaii Ocean Time Series. Within the habitat depth range of G. ruber (0-50 m), seasonal temperature and salinity vary by 4 °C and 0.7 practical salinity units, respectively. Multivariate regression reveals that salinity influence is not significant at this site, allowing us to isolate and quantify the temperature influence on Mg/Ca using spatially and temporally highly-resolved temperature measurements. Our study shows an exponential Mg/Ca-temperature relationship of: Mg/Ca [mmol/mol] = (0.97 ± 0.39) exp ((0.063 ± 0.016)*T[°C]) (RMSE=0.32). The results of our faunal and geochemical analyses highlight two key findings. First, foraminiferal assemblage data reveals that the mean annual flux of G. ruber (13 shells/m2/day) is strongly skewed by flux during the summer (up to 63 shells/m2/day) with potential implications for reconstructing annual SST. Second, our results indicate a temperature sensitivity of 6.3 ± 1.6% Mg/Ca per °C, suggesting that the temperature influence on Mg/Ca may be lower than the canonical 9 ± 1 % Mg/Ca per °C value and is sensitive to the choice of habitat depth. 1. Anand et al., Paleoceanography, 18, 1050 (2003); 2. Dekens et al., G3, 3, 1022 (2002); 3. Hönisch et al., GCA, 121, 196-213 (2013); 4. Kisakürek et al., EPSL, 273, 260-269 (2008).

Surface-water hydrology of the Little Black River basin, Missouri and Arkansas, before water-land improvement practices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berkas, W.R.; Femmer, Suzanne R.; Mesko, T.O.; Thompson, B.W.

1987-01-01

The U. S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, in accordance with Public Law 566, is implementing various types of water-land improvement practices in the Little Black River basin in southeastern Missouri. These practices are designed, in part, to decrease the suspended sediment (SS) transport in the basin, decrease flood damage in the basin, and improve drainage in the agricultural area. The general features of the basin, such as geology, groundwater hydrology, soils, land use, water use, and precipitation are described; surface water quantity, quality, and suspended sediment discharge are also described. The aquifers are the Mississippi River valley alluvial aquifer, which can yield about 3,500 gal/min to properly constructed wells, and the Ozark and St. Francois aquifers, which can yield from about 30 to 500 gal/min to properly constructed wells. Soils in the area have formed in loess and cherty residuum in the uplands or have formed in alluvial sediment in the lowlands. About 93% of the estimated 3 billion gal/year of water used in the basin is for crop irrigation. The average monthly precipitation varies slightly throughout the year, with an average annual precipitation of about 47 inches. Water quality data were collected at seven stations. Specific conductance values ranged from 50 to 400 microsiemens/cm at 25 C. Water temperatures ranged from 0.0 C in the winter to 33.5 C in summer. pH values ranged from 6.4 to 8.5 units. Dissolved oxygen concentrations ranged from 2.2 to 12.8 ml/l. Total nitrogen concentrations ranged from 0.13 to 2.20 ml/l as nitrogen, with organic nitrogen as the most abundant form. Phosphorus concentrations ranged from zero to 0.29 ml/l as phosphorus. Bacterial counts were largest during storm runoff in the basin with livestock waste as the significant contributor. For the period from October 1, 1980, to September 30, 1984, the average annual SS discharge ranged from 2,230 tons/yr in the headwater areas to 27,800 tons/yr at the most downstream station. The average annual SS yield ranged from 59.6 to 85.9 tons/sq mi. (Author 's abstract)

The oasis effect and summer temperature rise in arid regions - case study in Tarim Basin

PubMed Central

Hao, Xingming; Li, Weihong; Deng, Haijun

2016-01-01

This study revealed the influence of the oasis effect on summer temperatures based on MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and meteorological data. The results showed that the oasis effect occurs primarily in the summer. For a single oasis, the maximum oasis cold island intensity based on LST (OCILST) was 3.82 °C and the minimum value was 2.32 °C. In terms of the annual change in OCILST, the mean value of all oases ranged from 2.47 °C to 3.56 °C from 2001 to 2013. Net radiation (Rn) can be used as a key predictor of OCILST and OCItemperature (OCI based on air temperature). On this basis, we reconstructed a long time series (1961–2014) of OCItemperature and Tbase(air temperature without the disturbance of oasis effect). Our results indicated that the reason for the increase in the observed temperatures was the significant decrease in the OCItemperature over the past 50 years. In arid regions, the data recorded in weather stations not only underestimated the mean temperature of the entire study area but also overestimated the increasing trend of the temperature. These discrepancies are due to the limitations in the spatial distribution of weather stations and the disturbance caused by the oasis effect. PMID:27739500

Climate Variation at Flagstaff, Arizona - 1950 to 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hereford, Richard

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION Much scientific research demonstrates the existence of recent climate variation, particularly global warming. Climate prediction models forecast that climate will change; it will become warmer, droughts will increase in number and severity, and extreme climate events will recur often?desiccating aridity, extremely wet, unusually warm, or even frigid at times. However, the global models apply to average conditions in large grids approximately 150 miles on an edge (Thorpe, 2005), and how or whether specific areas within a grid are affected is unclear. Flagstaff's climate is mentioned in the context of global change, but information is lacking on the amount and trend of changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature. The purpose of this report is to understand what may be happening to Flagstaff's climate by reviewing local climate history. Flagstaff is in north-central Arizona south of San Francisco Mountain, which reaches 12,633 feet, the highest in Arizona (fig. 1). At 6,900 feet, surrounded by ponderosa pine forest, Flagstaff enjoys a four-season climate; winter-daytime temperatures are cool, averaging 45 degrees (Fahrenheit). Summer-daytime temperatures are comfortable, averaging 80 degrees, which is pleasant compared with nearby low-elevation deserts. Flagstaff?s precipitation averages 22-inches per year with a range of 9 to 39 inches. Snowfall occurs each season, averaging 97 inches annually. This report, written for the non-technical reader, interprets climate variation at Flagstaff as observed at the National Weather Service (NWS) station at Pulliam Field (or Airport), a first-order weather station staffed by meteorologists (Staudenmaier and others, 2007). The station is on a flat-topped ridge surrounded by forest 5-miles south of Flagstaff at an elevation of 7,003 feet. Data used in this analysis are daily measurements of precipitation (including snowfall) and temperature (maximum and minimum) covering the period from 1950, when the station began operation, through spring 2007. Conversations with Byron Peterson and Michael Staudenmaier of the NWS helped us understand the difficulties of collecting consistent weather data, operation of the station, and Flagstaff's climate. Weather is the daily or even instantaneous state of temperature and precipitation. Climate is the average or accumulation of these parameters over longer time scales such as a week, month, or year. Seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) and annual averages of temperature and accumulated precipitation describe the temporal variation of Flagstaff's climate, which is shown graphically with time series (figs. 2, 4, 6, 8-15). These plots show precipitation or temperature on the ordinate plotted against time on the abscissa, which is a year for annually repeating data or the year of a particular season. The plots reveal changing patterns of precipitation and temperature related to droughts, wet episodes, and rising temperatures.

Secular Trend of Surface Temperature at an Elevated Observatory in the Pyrenees.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bücher, A.; Dessens, J.

1991-08-01

Surface temperature was measured at the Pic du Midi de Bigorre, 2862 m MSL, from the foundation of the Observatory in 1878 until the closing of the meteorological station in 1984. After testing the homogeneity of the series with the annual mean temperatures in western Europe and in southwestern France, the period 1882-1970 was retained for trend analysis.The mean annual temperature increased 0.83°C during the 89-yr period. This increase is the sum of a very significant increase in the daily minimum temperature (+ 2.11°C) and a decrease in the maximum temperature ( 0.45°C). In consequence, the most dramatic change in the temperature regime was the difference between maximum and minimum; this decreased from 8.05°C in 1882 to 5.49°C in 1970. A mean increase is observed in all seasons, but, as for western Europe, it is stronger in spring and fall than in winter and summer.Analysis of cloudiness data for the same period shows a 15% increase in annual mean cloudiness and also significant year-to-year correlations between cloudiness and the maximum and minimum temperature. In consequence, the change in the temperature regime observed at the Pic du Midi since the end of last century is most probably the result of a climatic change involving an increase in cloud cover and, maybe, an increasing greenhouse effect.

Identifying potential effects of climate change on the development of water resources in Pinios River Basin, Central Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arampatzis, G.; Panagopoulos, A.; Pisinaras, V.; Tziritis, E.; Wendland, F.

2018-05-01

The aim of the present study is to assess the future spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature, and relate the corresponding change to water resources' quantitative status in Pinios River Basin (PRB), Thessaly, Greece. For this purpose, data from four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the periods 2021-2100 driven by several General Circulation Models (GCMs) were collected and bias-correction was performed based on linear scaling method. The bias-correction was made based on monthly precipitation and temperature data collected for the period 1981-2000 from 57 meteorological stations in total. The results indicate a general trend according to which precipitation is decreasing whilst temperature is increasing to an extent that varies depending on each particular RCM-GCM output. On the average, annual precipitation change for the period 2021-2100 was about - 80 mm, ranging between - 149 and + 35 mm, while the corresponding change for temperature was 2.81 °C, ranging between 1.48 and 3.72 °C. The investigation of potential impacts to the water resources demonstrates that water availability is expected to be significantly decreased in the already water-stressed PRB. The water stresses identified are related to the potential decreasing trend in groundwater recharge and the increasing trend in irrigation demand, which constitutes the major water consumer in PRB.

Discriminating low frequency components from long range persistent fluctuations in daily atmospheric temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanfredi, M.; Simoniello, T.; Cuomo, V.; Macchiato, M.

2009-02-01

This study originated from recent results reported in literature, which support the existence of long-range (power-law) persistence in atmospheric temperature fluctuations on monthly and inter-annual scales. We investigated the results of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) carried out on twenty-two historical daily time series recorded in Europe in order to evaluate the reliability of such findings in depth. More detailed inspections emphasized systematic deviations from power-law and high statistical confidence for functional form misspecification. Rigorous analyses did not support scale-free correlation as an operative concept for Climate modelling, as instead suggested in literature. In order to understand the physical implications of our results better, we designed a bivariate Markov process, parameterised on the basis of the atmospheric observational data by introducing a slow dummy variable. The time series generated by this model, analysed both in time and frequency domains, tallied with the real ones very well. They accounted for both the deceptive scaling found in literature and the correlation details enhanced by our analysis. Our results seem to evidence the presence of slow fluctuations from another climatic sub-system such as ocean, which inflates temperature variance up to several months. They advise more precise re-analyses of temperature time series before suggesting dynamical paradigms useful for Climate modelling and for the assessment of Climate Change.

Discriminating low frequency components from long range persistent fluctuations in daily atmospheric temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanfredi, M.; Simoniello, T.; Cuomo, V.; Macchiato, M.

2009-07-01

This study originated from recent results reported in literature, which support the existence of long-range (power-law) persistence in atmospheric temperature fluctuations on monthly and inter-annual scales. We investigated the results of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) carried out on twenty-two historical daily time series recorded in Europe in order to evaluate the reliability of such findings in depth. More detailed inspections emphasized systematic deviations from power-law and high statistical confidence for functional form misspecification. Rigorous analyses did not support scale-free correlation as an operative concept for Climate modelling, as instead suggested in literature. In order to understand the physical implications of our results better, we designed a bivariate Markov process, parameterised on the basis of the atmospheric observational data by introducing a slow dummy variable. The time series generated by this model, analysed both in time and frequency domains, tallied with the real ones very well. They accounted for both the deceptive scaling found in literature and the correlation details enhanced by our analysis. Our results seem to evidence the presence of slow fluctuations from another climatic sub-system such as ocean, which inflates temperature variance up to several months. They advise more precise re-analyses of temperature time series before suggesting dynamical paradigms useful for Climate modelling and for the assessment of Climate Change.

Thermal state of permafrost in North America: A contribution to the international polar year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, S.L.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Lewkowicz, A.G.; Burn, C.R.; Allard, M.; Clow, G.D.; Yoshikawa, K.; Throop, J.

2010-01-01

A snapshot of the thermal state of permafrost in northern North America during the International Polar Year (IPY) was developed using ground temperature data collected from 350 boreholes. More than half these were established during IPY to enhance the network in sparsely monitored regions. The measurement sites span a diverse range of ecoclimatic and geological conditions across the continent and are at various elevations within the Cordillera. The ground temperatures within the discontinuous permafrost zone are generally above -3°C, and range down to -15°C in the continuous zone. Ground temperature envelopes vary according to substrate, with shallow depths of zero annual amplitude for peat and mineral soils, and much greater depths for bedrock. New monitoring sites in the mountains of southern and central Yukon suggest that permafrost may be limited in extent. In concert with regional air temperatures, permafrost has generally been warming across North America for the past several decades, as indicated by measurements from the western Arctic since the 1970s and from parts of eastern Canada since the early 1990s. The rates of ground warming have been variable, but are generally greater north of the treeline. Latent heat effects in the southern discontinuous zone dominate the permafrost thermal regime close to 0°C and allow permafrost to persist under a warming climate. Consequently, the spatial diversity of permafrost thermal conditions is decreasing over time.

Landscape heterogeneity modulates forest sensitivity to climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jencso, Kelsey; Hu, Jia; Hoylman, Zachary

2015-04-01

Elevation dependent snowmelt magnitude and timing strongly influences net ecosystem productivity in forested mountain watersheds. However, previous work has provided little insight into how internal watershed topography and organization may modulate plant available water and forest growth across elevation gradients. We collected 800 tree cores from four coniferous tree species across a range of elevation, topographic positions and aspects in the Lubrecht Experimental Forest, Montana, USA. We compared the annual basal area increment growth rate to precipitation and temperature from a 60-year SNOTEL data record, groundwater and soil moisture data in sideslope and hollow positions, and topographic indices derived from a LiDAR digital elevation model. At the watershed scale, we evaluated the relationships between topographic indices, LiDAR derived estimates of basal area and seasonal patterns of the Landsat derived Enhanced Vegetation Index. Preliminary results indicate strong relationships between the rates of annual basal growth and the topographic wetness index (TWI), with differing slopes dependent on tree species (P. menziesii R2 = 0.66-0.71, P. ponderosa R2 = 0.87, L. occidentalis R2 = 0.71) and elevation. Generally, trees located in wetter landscape positions (higher TWI) exhibited greater annual growth per unit of precipitation relative to trees located in drier landscape positions (lower TWI). Similarly, watershed scale analysis of LiDAR derived biomass and seasonal greenness indicates differential growth response due to local convergence and divergence across elevation and insolation gradients. These observations suggest that topographically driven water redistribution patterns may modulate the effects of large scale gradients in precipitation and temperature, thereby creating hotspots for conifer productivity in semiarid watersheds.

Landscape Heterogeneity Modulates Forest Sensitivity to Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoylman, Z. H.; Jencso, K. G.; Hu, J.; Running, S. W.

2014-12-01

Elevation dependent snowmelt magnitude and timing strongly influences net ecosystem productivity in forested mountain watersheds. However, previous work has provided little insight into how internal watershed topography and organization may modulate plant available water and forest growth across elevation gradients. We collected 800 tree cores from five coniferous tree species across a range of elevations, topographic positions and aspects in the Lubrecht Experimental Forest, Montana, USA. We compared the annual basal area increment growth rate to precipitation and temperature from a 60-year SNOTEL data record, groundwater and soil moisture data in sideslope and hollow positions, and topographic indices derived from a LiDAR digital elevation model. At the watershed scale, we evaluated the relationships between topographic indices, LiDAR derived estimates of basal area and seasonal patterns of the Landsat derived Enhanced Vegetation Index. Preliminary results indicate strong relationships between the rates of annual basal growth and the topographic wetness index (TWI) , with differing slopes dependent on tree species (P. menziesii R2 = 0.66-0.71, P. ponderosa R2 = 0.87, L. occidentalis R2 = 0.71) and elevation. Generally, trees located in wetter landscape positions (higher TWI) exhibited greater annual growth per unit of precipitation relative to trees located in drier landscape positions (lower TWI). Watershed scale analysis of LiDAR derived biomass and seasonal greenness indicates differential growth response due to elevation gradients, irradiance and local convergence and divergence. These preliminary observations suggest that topographically driven water redistribution patterns may modulate the effects of large scale gradients in precipitation and temperature, thereby creating hotspots for conifer productivity in semiarid watersheds.

Atmospheric bulk deposition measurements of organochlorine pesticides at three alpine summits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakobi, Gert; Kirchner, Manfred; Henkelmann, Bernhard; Körner, Wolfgang; Offenthaler, Ivo; Moche, Wolfgang; Weiss, Peter; Schaub, Marcus; Schramm, Karl-Werner

2015-01-01

Bulk deposition samples were collected at three elevated summits in different parts of the Alps from 2005 to 2010. Deposition samples were analyzed for a wide range of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). HCHs, DDT, DDD, DDE, chlordanes, cis-heptachlor, HCB, dieldrin and endrin were found in all samples, only aldrin was found less frequently. Differences in the mean deposition rates between the three sites reflect the different amounts of precipitation at these sites. At the northern edge of the Alps with the highest annual total precipitations, mean annual deposition rates were at least twice those at the Swiss site for most of the investigated OCP. Average annual deposition of α-HCH amounted to 602, 461 and 216 ng m-2 year-1, the sum of DDT, DDD and DDE to 579, 210 and 144 ng m-2 year-1 and the sum of trans- and cis-chlordane to 35, 47, 16 ng m-2 year-1 at Zugspitze, Sonnblick, and Weissfluhjoch, respectively. A quite distinct seasonal pattern of OPC deposition was observed at all three locations. For most of the HCH isomers, higher deposition rates were observed in summer than in winter at all three sites, which may be caused by enhanced re-volatilization due to higher summer temperatures and the ongoing application of HCH-containing products in some regions as well. For the other investigated OCPs, higher summer deposition rates were found only at Weissfluhjoch. This site is more often affected by air masses crossing the river Po basin than the other two sites, an area exhibiting higher summer temperatures compared to other regions adjacent to the Alps.

Changes in Species Richness and Composition of Tiger Moths (Lepidoptera: Erebidae: Arctiinae) among Three Neotropical Ecoregions.

PubMed

Beccacece, Hernán Mario; Zeballos, Sebastián Rodolfo; Zapata, Adriana Inés

Paraná, Yungas and Chaco Serrano ecoregions are among the most species-rich terrestrial habitats at higher latitude. However, the information for tiger moths, one of the most speciose groups of moths, is unknown in these ecoregions. In this study, we assess their species richness and composition in all three of these ecoregions. Also we investigated whether the species composition of tiger moths is influenced by climatic factors and altitude. Tiger moth species were obtained with samples from 71 sites using standardized protocols (21 sites were in Yungas, 19 in Paraná and 31 in Chaco Serrano). Rarefaction-extrapolation curves, non-parametric estimators for incidence and sample coverage indices were performed to assess species richness in the ecoregions studied. Non metric multidimensional scaling and adonis tests were performed to compare the species composition of tiger moths among ecoregions. Permutest analysis and Pearson correlation were used to evaluate the relationship among species composition and annual mean temperature, annual temperature range, annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and altitude. Among ecoregions Paraná was the richest with 125 species, followed by Yungas with 63 species and Chaco Serrano with 24 species. Species composition differed among these ecoregions, although Yungas and Chaco Serrano were more similar than Paraná. Species composition was significantly influenced by climatic factors and altitude. This study showed that species richness and species composition of tiger moths differed among the three ecoregions assessed. Furthermore, not only climatic factors and altitude influence the species composition of tiger moths among ecoregions, but also climatic seasonality at higher latitude in Neotropical South America becomes an important factor.

A multi-scale methodology for comparing GCM and RCM results over the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, Rana; Krichak, Simon; Breitgand, Joseph; Alpert, Pinhas

2010-05-01

The importance of skillful climate modeling is increasingly being realized as results are being incorporated into environmental, economic, and even business planning. Global circulation models (GCMs) employed by the IPCC provide results at spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers, which is useful for understanding global trends but not appropriate for use as input into regional and local impacts models used to inform policy and development. To address this shortcoming, regional climate models (RCMs) which dynamically downscale the results of the GCMs are used. In this study we present first results of a dynamically downscaled RCM focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean region. For the historical 1960-2000 time period, results at a spatial scale of both 25 km and 50 km are compared with historical station data from 5 locations across Israel as well as with the results of 3 GCM models (ECHAM5, NOAA GFDL, and CCCMA) at annual, monthly and daily time scales. Results from a recently completed Japanese GCM at a spatial scale of 20 km are also included. For the historical validation period, we show that as spatial scale increases the skill in capturing annual and inter-annual temperature and rainfall also increases. However, for intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics important for hydrological and agricultural planning (eg. dry and wet spells, number of rain days) the GCM results (including the 20 km Japanese model) capture the historical trends better than the dynamically downscaled RegCM. For future scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes, we compare results across the models for the available time periods, generating a range of future trends.

Impacts of snow on soil temperature observed across the circumpolar north

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu; Sherstiukov, Artem B.; Qian, Budong; Kokelj, Steven V.; Lantz, Trevor C.

2018-04-01

Climate warming has significant impacts on permafrost, infrastructure and soil organic carbon at the northern high latitudes. These impacts are mainly driven by changes in soil temperature (TS). Snow insulation can cause significant differences between TS and air temperature (TA), and our understanding about this effect through space and time is currently limited. In this study, we compiled soil and air temperature observations (measured at about 0.2 m depth and 2 m height, respectively) at 588 sites from climate stations and boreholes across the northern high latitudes. Analysis of this circumpolar dataset demonstrates the large offset between mean TS and TA in the low arctic and northern boreal regions. The offset decreases both northward and southward due to changes in snow conditions. Correlation analysis shows that the coupling between annual TS and TA is weaker, and the response of annual TS to changes in TA is smaller in boreal regions than in the arctic and the northern temperate regions. Consequently, the inter-annual variation and the increasing trends of annual TS are smaller than that of TA in boreal regions. The systematic and significant differences in the relationship between TS and TA across the circumpolar north is important for understanding and assessing the impacts of climate change and for reconstruction of historical climate based on ground temperature profiles for the northern high latitudes.

Region-Specific Sensitivity of Anemophilous Pollen Deposition to Temperature and Precipitation

PubMed Central

Donders, Timme H.; Hagemans, Kimberley; Dekker, Stefan C.; de Weger, Letty A.; de Klerk, Pim; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

2014-01-01

Understanding relations between climate and pollen production is important for several societal and ecological challenges, importantly pollen forecasting for pollinosis treatment, forensic studies, global change biology, and high-resolution palaeoecological studies of past vegetation and climate fluctuations. For these purposes, we investigate the role of climate variables on annual-scale variations in pollen influx, test the regional consistency of observed patterns, and evaluate the potential to reconstruct high-frequency signals from sediment archives. A 43-year pollen-trap record from the Netherlands is used to investigate relations between annual pollen influx, climate variables (monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation values), and the North Atlantic Oscillation climate index. Spearman rank correlation analysis shows that specifically in Alnus, Betula, Corylus, Fraxinus, Quercus and Plantago both temperature in the year prior to (T-1), as well as in the growing season (T), are highly significant factors (TApril rs between 0.30 [P<0.05[ and 0.58 [P<0.0001]; TJuli-1 rs between 0.32 [P<0.05[ and 0.56 [P<0.0001]) in the annual pollen influx of wind-pollinated plants. Total annual pollen prediction models based on multiple climate variables yield R2 between 0.38 and 0.62 (P<0.0001). The effect of precipitation is minimal. A second trapping station in the SE Netherlands, shows consistent trends and annual variability, suggesting the climate factors are regionally relevant. Summer temperature is thought to influence the formation of reproductive structures, while temperature during the flowering season influences pollen release. This study provides a first predictive model for seasonal pollen forecasting, and also aides forensic studies. Furthermore, variations in pollen accumulation rates from a sub-fossil peat deposit are comparable with the pollen trap data. This suggests that high frequency variability pollen records from natural archives reflect annual past climate variability, and can be used in palaeoecological and -climatological studies to bridge between population- and species-scale responses to climate forcing. PMID:25133631

Precipitation and temperature changes in the major Chinese river basins during 1957-2013 and links to sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Qing; Prange, Matthias; Merkel, Ute

2016-05-01

The variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the three major Chinese river basins (Yellow River, Yangtze River and Pearl River) in the period of 1957-2013 were analyzed on an annual and seasonal basis, as well as their links to sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean on both interannual and decadal time scales. Annual mean temperature of the three river basins increased significantly overall since 1957, with an average warming rate of about 0.19 °C/10a, but the warming was characterized by a staircase form with steps around 1987 and 1998. The significant increase of annual mean temperature could mostly be attributed to the remarkable warming trend in spring, autumn and winter. Warming rates in the northern basins were generally much higher than in the southern basins. However, both the annual precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation of the three river basins showed little change in the study area average, but distinct interannual variations since 1957 and clear regional differences. An overall warming-wetting tendency was found in the northwestern and southeastern river basins in 1957-2013, while the central regions tended to become warmer and drier. Results from a Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) showed that the interannual variations of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature over the three river basins were both associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since 1957. ENSO SST patterns affected precipitation and surface air temperature variability throughout the year, but with very different response patterns in the different seasons. For instance, temperature in most of the river basins was positively correlated with central-eastern equatorial Pacific SST in winter and spring, but negatively correlated in summer and autumn. On the decadal time scale, the seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature variations were strongly associated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation.

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature, Tropospheric Humidity and Lapse Rate on the Annual Cycle of the Clear-Sky Greenhouse Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, H.; Liu, W.

2000-01-01

The implication of this work will provide modeling study a surrogate of annual cycle of the greenhouse effect. For example, the model should be able to simulate the annual cycle before it can be used for global change study.

Automated Continuous Commissioning of Commercial Buildings

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

energy annually at the building level on two demonstration sites. Some faults would also cause issues related to thermal comfort . 2 $ Economizer...Unit (AHU) discharge air temperatures and room temperatures to deviate from their respective setpoints. This causes building thermal comfort issues...annual expenditure savings over the next three to five years. At the same time, the thermal comfort in DoD buildings would be improved to result in

Soil organic carbon quality in forested mineral wetlands at different mean annual temperature.

Treesearch

Cinzia Fissore; Christian P. Giardina; Randall K. Kolka; Carl C. Trettin

2009-01-01

Forested mineral soil wetlands (FMSW) store large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC), but little is known on: (i) whether the quality of SOC stored in these soils (proportion of active versus more resistant SOC compounds) differs from SOC in upland soils; (ii) how the quality of SOC in FMSW varies with mean annual temperature (MAT); and (iii) whether SOC decomposition...

Millennial-scale vegetation dynamics in an estuary at the onset of the Miocene Climate Optimum

PubMed Central

Kern, Andrea; Harzhauser, Mathias; Mandic, Oleg; Roetzel, Reinhard; Ćorić, Stjepan; Bruch, Angela A.; Zuschin, Martin

2010-01-01

Pollen analyses have been proven to possess the possibility to decipher rapid vegetational and climate shifts in Neogene sedimentary records. Herein, a c. 21-kyr-long transgression–regression cycle from the Lower Austrian locality Stetten is analysed in detail to evaluate climatic benchmarks for the early phase of the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum and to estimate the pace of environmental change. Based on the Coexistence Approach, a very clear signal of seasonality can be reconstructed. A warm and wet summer season with c. 204–236 mm precipitation during the wettest month was opposed by a rather dry winter season with precipitation of c. 9–24 mm during the driest month. The mean annual temperature ranged between 15.7 and 20.8 °C, with about 9.6–13.3 °C during the cold season and 24.7–27.9 °C during the warmest month. In contrast, today’s climate of this area, with an annual temperature of 9.8 °C and 660 mm rainfall, is characterized by the winter season (mean temperature: −1.4 °C, mean precipitation: 39 mm) and a summer mean temperature of 19.9 °C (mean precipitation: 84 mm). Different modes of environmental shifts shaped the composition of the vegetation. Within few millennia, marshes and salt marshes with abundant Cyperaceae rapidly graded into Taxodiaceae swamps. This quick but gradual process was interrupted by swift marine ingressions which took place on a decadal to centennial scale. The transgression is accompanied by blooms of dinoflagellates and of the green alga Prasinophyta and an increase in Abies and Picea. Afterwards, the retreat of the sea and the progradation of estuarine and wetland settings were a gradual progress again. Despite a clear sedimentological cyclicity, which is related to the 21-kyr precessional forcing, the climate data show little variation. This missing pattern might be due to the buffering of the precessional-related climate signal by the subtropical vegetation. Another explanation could be the method-inherent broad range of climate-parameter estimates that could cover small scale climatic changes. PMID:22021937

Climate change impacts on rainfall and temperature in sugarcane growing Upper Gangetic Plains of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Ram Ratan; Srivastava, Tapendra Kumar; Singh, Pushpa

2018-01-01

Assessment of variability in climate extremes is crucial for managing their aftermath on crops. Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), a major C4 crop, dominates the Upper Gangetic Plain (UGP) in India and is vulnerable to both direct and indirect effects of changes in temperature and rainfall. The present study was taken up to assess the weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual trends of rainfall and temperature variability during the period 1956-2015 (60 years) for envisaging the probabilities of different levels of rainfall suitable for sugarcane in UGP in the present climate scenario. The analysis revealed that 87% of total annual rainfall was received during southwest monsoon months (June-September) while post-monsoon (October to February) and pre-monsoon months (March-May) accounted for only 9.4 and 3.6%, respectively. There was a decline in both monthly and annual normal rainfall during the period 1986-2015 as compared to 1956-1985, and an annual rainfall deficiency of 205.3 mm was recorded. Maximum monthly normal rainfall deficiencies of 52.8, 84.2, and 54.0 mm were recorded during the months of July, August, and September, respectively, while a minimum rainfall deficiency of 2.2 mm was observed in November. There was a decline by 196.3 mm in seasonal normal rainfall during June-September (kharif). The initial probability of a week going dry was higher (> 70%) from the 1st to the 25th week; however, standard meteorological weeks (SMW) 26 to 37 had more than 50% probability of going wet. The normal annual maximum temperature (Tmax) decreased by 0.4 °C while normal annual minimum temperatures (Tmin) increased by 0.21 °C. Analysis showed that there was an increase in frequency of drought from 1986 onwards in the zone and a monsoon rainfall deficit by about 21.25% during June-September which coincided with tillering and grand growth stage of sugarcane. The imposed drought during the growth and elongation phase is emerging as a major constraint in realizing high cane productivity in the zone. Strategies for mitigating the negative impacts of rainfall and temperature variability on sugarcane productivity through improvement in existing adaptation strategies are proposed.

Pinus taeda forest growth predictions in the 21st century vary with site mean annual temperature and site quality.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Benecke, Carlos A; Teskey, Robert O; Dinon-Aldridge, Heather; Martin, Timothy A

2017-11-01

Climate projections from 20 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) were used with the 3-PG model to predict the future productivity and water use of planted loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) growing across the southeastern United States. Predictions were made using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. These represent scenarios in which total radiative forcing stabilizes before 2100 (RCP 4.5) or continues increasing throughout the century (RCP 8.5). Thirty-six sites evenly distributed across the native range of the species were used in the analysis. These sites represent a range in current mean annual temperature (14.9-21.6°C) and precipitation (1,120-1,680 mm/year). The site index of each site, which is a measure of growth potential, was varied to represent different levels of management. The 3-PG model predicted that aboveground biomass growth and net primary productivity will increase by 10%-40% in many parts of the region in the future. At cooler sites, the relative growth increase was greater than at warmer sites. By running the model with the baseline [CO 2 ] or the anticipated elevated [CO 2 ], the effect of CO 2 on growth was separated from that of other climate factors. The growth increase at warmer sites was due almost entirely to elevated [CO 2 ]. The growth increase at cooler sites was due to a combination of elevated [CO 2 ] and increased air temperature. Low site index stands had a greater relative increase in growth under the climate change scenarios than those with a high site index. Water use increased in proportion to increases in leaf area and productivity but precipitation was still adequate, based on the downscaled GCM climate projections. We conclude that an increase in productivity can be expected for a large majority of the planted loblolly pine stands in the southeastern United States during this century. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of Acacia Koa Forest Health across Environmental Gradients in Hawai‘i Using Fine Resolution Remote Sensing and GIS

PubMed Central

Morales, Rodolfo Martinez; Idol, Travis; Friday, James B.

2011-01-01

Koa (Acacia koa) forests are found across broad environmental gradients in the Hawai‘ian Islands. Previous studies have identified koa forest health problems and dieback at the plot level, but landscape level patterns remain unstudied. The availability of high-resolution satellite images from the new GeoEye1 satellite offers the opportunity to conduct landscape-level assessments of forest health. The goal of this study was to develop integrated remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) methodologies to characterize the health of koa forests and model the spatial distribution and variability of koa forest dieback patterns across an elevation range of 600–1,000 m asl in the island of Kaua‘i, which correspond to gradients of temperature and rainfall ranging from 17–20 °C mean annual temperature and 750–1,500 mm mean annual precipitation. GeoEye1 satellite imagery of koa stands was analyzed using supervised classification techniques based on the analysis of 0.5-m pixel multispectral bands. There was clear differentiation of native koa forest from areas dominated by introduced tree species and differentiation of healthy koa stands from those exhibiting dieback symptoms. The area ratio of healthy koa to koa dieback corresponded linearly to changes in temperature across the environmental gradient, with koa dieback at higher relative abundance in warmer areas. A landscape-scale map of healthy koa forest and dieback distribution demonstrated both the general trend with elevation and the small-scale heterogeneity that exists within particular elevations. The application of these classification techniques with fine spatial resolution imagery can improve the accuracy of koa forest inventory and mapping across the islands of Hawai‘i. Such findings should also improve ecological restoration, conservation and silviculture of this important native tree species. PMID:22163920

Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenta Mekonnen, Dagnenet; Disse, Markus

2018-04-01

Climate change is becoming one of the most threatening issues for the world today in terms of its global context and its response to environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, large uncertainties between different general circulation models (GCMs) and coarse spatial resolutions make it difficult to use the outputs of GCMs directly, especially for sustainable water management at regional scale, which introduces the need for downscaling techniques using a multimodel approach. This study aims (i) to evaluate the comparative performance of two widely used statistical downscaling techniques, namely the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), and (ii) to downscale future climate scenarios of precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of the Upper Blue Nile River basin at finer spatial and temporal scales to suit further hydrological impact studies. The calibration and validation result illustrates that both downscaling techniques (LARS-WG and SDSM) have shown comparable and good ability to simulate the current local climate variables. Further quantitative and qualitative comparative performance evaluation was done by equally weighted and varying weights of statistical indexes for precipitation only. The evaluation result showed that SDSM using the canESM2 CMIP5 GCM was able to reproduce more accurate long-term mean monthly precipitation but LARS-WG performed best in capturing the extreme events and distribution of daily precipitation in the whole data range. Six selected multimodel CMIP3 GCMs, namely HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5-OM, CCSM3, MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and CSIRO-MK3 GCMs, were used for downscaling climate scenarios by the LARS-WG model. The result from the ensemble mean of the six GCM showed an increasing trend for precipitation, Tmax and Tmin. The relative change in precipitation ranged from 1.0 to 14.4 % while the change for mean annual Tmax may increase from 0.4 to 4.3 °C and the change for mean annual Tmin may increase from 0.3 to 4.1 °C. The individual result of the HadCM3 GCM has a good agreement with the ensemble mean result. HadCM3 from CMIP3 using A2a and B2a scenarios and canESM2 from CMIP5 GCMs under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled by SDSM. The result from the two GCMs under five different scenarios agrees with the increasing direction of three climate variables (precipitation, Tmax and Tmin). The relative change of the downscaled mean annual precipitation ranges from 2.1 to 43.8 % while the change for mean annual Tmax and Tmin may increase in the range from 0.4 to 2.9 °C and from 0.3 to 1.6 °C respectively.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Intra-seasonal Oscillations Inferred from SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) Temperature Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, F. T.; Mayr, H. G.; Russell, J.; Mlynczak, M.; Reber, C. A.; Mengel, J. G.

2006-01-01

In the zonal mean meridional winds of the upper mesosphere, intra-seasonal oscillations with periods between 1 and 4 months have been inferred from UARS measurements and independently predicted with the Numerical Spectral Model WSM). The wind oscillations tend to be confined to low latitudes and appear to be driven, at least in part, by small-scale gravity waves propagating in the meridional direction. Winds across the equator should generate, due to dynamical heating and cooling, temperature oscillations with opposite phase in the two hemispheres. Investigating this phenomenon, we have analyzed SABER temperatures from TIMED in the altitude range between 55 and 95 km to delineate with an empirical model, the year-long variability of the migrating tides and zonal mean components. The inferred seasonal variations of the diurnal tide, characterized by amplitude maxima near equinox, are in substantial agreement with UARS observations and results from the NSM. For the zonal mean, the dominant seasonal variations in the SABER temperatures, with annual (12 months) and semiannual (6 months) periodicities, agree well with those derived from UARS measurements. The intra-seasonal variations with periods between 2 and 4 months have amplitudes close to 2 K, almost half as large as those for the dominant seasonal variations. Their amplitudes are in qualitative agreement with the corresponding values inferred from UARS during different years. The SABER and UARS temperature variations reveal pronounced hemispherical asymmetries, consistent with meridional wind oscillations across the equator. The phase of the semi-annual temperature oscillations from the NSM agrees with the observations from UARS and SABER. But the amplitudes are systematically smaller, which may indicate that planetary waves are more important than is allowed for in the model. For the shorter-period intra-seasonal variations, which can be generated by gravity wave drag, the model results are generally in better agreement with the observations.

The role of climate in the dynamics of a hybrid zone in Appalachian salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walls, Susan

2009-01-01

I examined the potential influence of climate change on the dynamics of a previously studied hybrid zone between a pair of terrestrial salamanders at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, in the Nantahala Mountains of North Carolina, USA. A 16-year study led by Nelson G. Hairston, Sr. revealed that Plethodon teyahalee and Plethodon shermani hybridized at intermediate elevations, forming a cline between 'pure' parental P. teyahalee at lower elevations and 'pure' parental P. shermani at higher elevations. From 1974 to 1990 the proportion of salamanders at the higher elevation scored as 'pure' P. shermani declined significantly, indicating that the hybrid zone was spreading upward. To date there have been no rigorous tests of hypotheses for the movement of this hybrid zone. Using temperature and precipitation data from Coweeta, I re-analyzed Hairston's data to examine whether the observed elevational shift was correlated with variation in either air temperature or precipitation from the same time period. For temperature, my analysis tracked the results of the original study: the proportion of 'pure' P. shermani at the higher elevation declined significantly with increasing mean annual temperature, whereas the proportion of 'pure' P. teyahalee at lower elevations did not. There was no discernable relationship between proportions of 'pure' individuals of either species with variation in precipitation. From 1974 to 1990, low-elevation air temperatures at the Coweeta Laboratory ranged from annual means of 11.8 to 14.2 °C, compared with a 55-year average (1936-1990) of 12.6 °C. My re-analyses indicate that the upward spread of the hybrid zone is correlated with increasing air temperatures, but not precipitation, and provide an empirical test of a hypothesis for one factor that may have influenced this movement. My results aid in understanding the potential impact that climate change may have on the ecology and evolution of terrestrial salamanders in montane regions.

Assessing the robustness and uncertainties of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in AR5 Global Climate Models over the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, M. Nazrul; Saeed, Fahad; Alkhalaf, Abdulrahman K.; Dambul, Ramzah

2017-09-01

The current study presents the future projection of temperature and precipitation based on ensemble from Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) at seasonal and annual time scales over the Arabian Peninsula. Various analysis methods and techniques including spatial plots with robustness analysis, line plots with likelihood spread, and bar plots as well as annual cycles with likelihood ranges of both temperature and precipitation have been employed. The Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) region shows an increase in projected signal of temperature higher than the Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP). Moreover, the northwestern part of NAP shows a large decrease in precipitation for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. However, the SAP region shows a great increase in precipitation for both the scenarios. Further, the central, southern and eastern parts of Saudi Arabia also show a tendency of increase in precipitation. Moreover at annual time scale, NAP shows a consistent statistically significant (95% level) decreasing trend of precipitation at the rate of 0.66% (- 1.18/- 0.14 for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade, whereas SAP shows statistically significant (99% level) increasing trend in precipitation at the rate of 1.67% (0.34/2.99 for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade, while the precipitation significant (99% level) increasing trend 0.86% (- 0.27/2.00 for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade over the Arabian Peninsula. The significant (99% level) warming is projected 0.42 °C (0.23 °C/0.60 °C for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) and 0.37 °C (0.20 °C/0.53 °C for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade over NAP and SAP respectively, which is 0.39 °C (0.22 °C/0.57 °C for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade over the whole Peninsula. Our results call for the development of immediate actions and policies in order to combat negative impacts of climate change over the Arabian Peninsula.

Water temperature behaviour in the River Loire since 1976 and 1881

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moatar, Florentina; Gailhard, Joël

2006-05-01

Analysis of monthly mean river temperatures, recorded on an hourly basis in the middle reaches of the Loire since 1976, allows reconstruction by multiple linear regression of the annual, spring and summer water temperatures from equivalent information on air temperatures and river discharge. Since 1881, the average annual and summer temperatures of the Loire have risen by approximately 0.8 °C, this increase accelerating since the late 1980s due to the rise in air temperature and also to lower discharge rates. In addition, the thermal regime in the Orleans to Blois reach is considerably affected by the inflow of groundwater from the Calcaires de Beauce aquifer, as shown by the summer energy balance. To cite this article: F. Moatar, J. Gailhard, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).

Catchment controls on water temperature and the development of simple metrics to inform riparian zone management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Matthew; Wilby, Robert

2015-04-01

Water temperature is a key water quality parameter and is critical to aquatic life Therefore, rising temperatures due to climate and environmental change will have major consequences for river biota. As such, it is important to understand the environmental controls of the thermal regime of rivers. The Loughborough University TEmperature Network (LUTEN) consists of a distributed network of 25 sites along 40 km of two rivers in the English Peak District, from their source to confluence. As a result, the network covers a range of hydrological, sedimentary, geomorphic and land-use conditions. At each site, air and water temperature have been recorded at a 15-minute resolution for over 4 years. Water temperature is spatially patchy and temporally variable in the monitored rivers. For example, the annual temperature range at Beresford Dale is over 18° C, whereas 8 km downstream it is less than 8° C. This heterogeneity leads to some sites being more vulnerable to future warming than others. The sensitivity of sites to climate was quantified by comparing the parameters of logistic regression models, constructed at each site, that relate water temperature to air temperature. These analyses, coupled with catchment modelling suggest that reaches that are surface-water dominated with minimal shade and relatively low water volumes are most susceptible to warming. Such reaches tended to occur at intermediate distances from rivers source in the monitored catchments. Reaches that were groundwater dominated had relatively stable thermal regimes, which were relatively unaffected by inter-annual changes in climatic conditions. Such areas could provide important thermal refuge to many organisms, which is supported by monitoring of the invertebrate community in the catchment. The phenology (i.e. timing of life events) of some species remained consistent between years in a river reach with a stable thermal regime, but changed markedly in other areas of the river. Consequently, areas of thermal refuge could be important in the context of future climate change, potentially maintaining populations of animals excluded from other parts of the river during hot summer months. International management strategies to mitigate rising temperatures tend to focus on the protection, enhancement or creation of riparian shade. Simple metrics derived from catchment landscape models, the heat capacity of water, and modelled solar radiation receipt, suggest that approximately 1 km of deep riparian shading is necessary to offset a 1° C rise in temperature in the monitored catchments. A similar value is likely to be obtained for similar sized rivers at similar latitudes. Trees would take 20 years to attain sufficient height to shade the necessary solar angles. However, 1 km of deep riparian shade will have substantial impacts on the hydrological and geomorphological functioning of the river, beyond simply altering the thermal regime. Consequently, successful management of rising water temperature in rivers will require catchment scale consideration, as part of an integrated management plan.

Joint variability of global runoff and global sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2008-01-01

Global land surface runoff and sea surface temperatures (SST) are analyzed to identify the primary modes of variability of these hydroclimatic data for the period 1905-2002. A monthly water-balance model first is used with global monthly temperature and precipitation data to compute time series of annual gridded runoff for the analysis period. The annual runoff time series data are combined with gridded annual sea surface temperature data, and the combined dataset is subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to identify the primary modes of variability. The first three components from the PCA explain 29% of the total variability in the combined runoff/SST dataset. The first component explains 15% of the total variance and primarily represents long-term trends in the data. The long-term trends in SSTs are evident as warming in all of the oceans. The associated long-term trends in runoff suggest increasing flows for parts of North America, South America, Eurasia, and Australia; decreasing runoff is most notable in western Africa. The second principal component explains 9% of the total variance and reflects variability of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its associated influence on global annual runoff patterns. The third component explains 5% of the total variance and indicates a response of global annual runoff to variability in North Aflantic SSTs. The association between runoff and North Atlantic SSTs may explain an apparent steplike change in runoff that occurred around 1970 for a number of continental regions.

Streamflow simulation studies of the Hillsborough, Alafia, and Anclote Rivers, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turner, J.F.

1979-01-01

A modified version of the Georgia Tech Watershed Model was applied for the purpose of flow simulation in three large river basins of west-central Florida. Calibrations were evaluated by comparing the following synthesized and observed data: annual hydrographs for the 1959, 1960, 1973 and 1974 water years, flood hydrographs (maximum daily discharge and flood volume), and long-term annual flood-peak discharges (1950-72). Annual hydrographs, excluding the 1973 water year, were compared using average absolute error in annual runoff and daily flows and correlation coefficients of monthly and daily flows. Correlations coefficients for simulated and observed maximum daily discharges and flood volumes used for calibrating range from 0.91 to 0.98 and average standard errors of estimate range from 18 to 45 percent. Correlation coefficients for simulated and observed annual flood-peak discharges range from 0.60 to 0.74 and average standard errors of estimate range from 33 to 44 percent. (Woodard-USGS)

Observed changes in extremes of daily rainfall and temperature in Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worku, Gebrekidan; Teferi, Ermias; Bantider, Amare; Dile, Yihun T.

2018-02-01

Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Riparian forest as a management tool for moderating future thermal conditions of lowland temperate streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristensen, P. B.; Kristensen, E. A.; Riis, T.; Baisner, A. J.; Larsen, S. E.; Verdonschot, P. F. M.; Baattrup-Pedersen, A.

2013-05-01

Predictions of the future climate infer that stream water temperatures may increase in temperate lowland areas and that streams without riparian forest will be particularly prone to elevated stream water temperature. Planting of riparian forest is a potential mitigation measure to reduce water temperatures for the benefit of stream organisms. However, no studies have yet determined the length of a forested reach required to obtain a significant temperature decrease. To investigate this we measured the temperature in five small Danish lowland streams from June 2010 to July 2011, all showing a sharp transition between an upstream open reach and a downstream forested reach. In all stream reaches we also measured canopy cover and a range of physical variables characterizing the streams reaches. This allowed us to analyse differences in mean daily temperature and amplitude per month among forested and open sections as well as to study annual temperature regimes and the influence of physical conditions on temperature changes. Stream water temperature in the open reaches was affected by heating, and in July we observed an increase in temperature over the entire length of the investigated reaches, reaching temperatures higher than the incipient lethal limit for brown trout. Along the forest reaches a significant decrease in July temperatures was recorded immediately (100 m) when the stream moved into the forested area. In three of our study streams the temperature continued to decrease the longer the stream entered into the forested reach, and the temperature decline did not reach a plateau. The temperature increases along the open reaches were accompanied by stronger daily temperature variation; however, when the streams entered into the forest, the range in daily variation decreased. Multiple regression analysis of the combined effects on stream water temperature of canopy cover, Width/Depth ratio, discharge, current velocity and water temperature revealed that canopy cover and Width/Depth were the two variables responsible for the reduced temperature observed when the streams enter the forest. In consequence, we conclude that even relatively short stretches (100-500 m) of forest alongside streams may combat the negative effects of heating of stream water and that forest planting can be a useful mitigation measure.

Systematic review of the relationship of Helicobacter pylori infection with geographical latitude, average annual temperature and average daily sunshine.

PubMed

Lu, Chao; Yu, Ye; Li, Lan; Yu, Chaohui; Xu, Ping

2018-04-17

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is a worldwide threat to human health with high prevalence. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between latitude, average annual temperature, average daily sunshine time and H. pylori infection. The PubMed, ClinicalTrials.gov , EBSCO and Web of Science databases were searched to identify studies reporting H. pylori infection. Latitude 30° was the cut-off level for low and mid-latitude areas. We obtained information for latitude, average annual temperature, average daily sunshine, and Human Development Index (HDI) from reports of studies of the relationships with H. pylori infection. Of the 51 studies included, there was significant difference in H. pylori infection between the low- and mid-latitude areas (P = 0.05). There was no significant difference in the prevalence of H. pylori infection in each 15°-latitude zone analyzed (P = 0.061). Subgroup analysis revealed the highest and lowest H. pylori infection rates in the developing regions at > 30° latitude subgroup and the developed regions at < 30° latitude subgroup, respectively (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that average annual temperature, average daily sunshine time and HDI were significantly correlated with H. pylori infection (P = 0.009, P < 0.001, P < 0.001), while there was no correlation between H. pylori infection and latitude. Our analysis showed that higher average annual temperature was associated with lower H. pylori infection rates, while average daily sunshine time correlated positively with H. pylori infection. HDI was also found to be a significant factor, with higher HDI associated with lower infection rates. These findings provide evidence that can be used to devise strategies for the prevention and control of H. pylori.

Constraining Holocene hydrological changes in the Carpathian-Balkan region using speleothem δ18O and pollen-based temperature reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drăguşin, V.; Staubwasser, M.; Hoffmann, D. L.; Ersek, V.; Onac, B. P.; Veres, D.

2014-07-01

Here we present a speleothem isotope record (POM2) from Ascunsă Cave (Romania) that provides new data on past climate changes in the Carpathian-Balkan region from 8.2 ka until the present. This paper describes an approach to constrain the effect of temperature changes on calcite δ18O values in stalagmite POM2 over the course of the middle Holocene (6-4 ka), and across the 8.2 and 3.2 ka rapid climate change events. Independent pollen temperature reconstructions are used to this purpose. The approach combines the temperature-dependent isotope fractionation of rain water during condensation and fractionation resulting from calcite precipitation at the given cave temperature. The only prior assumptions are that pollen-derived average annual temperature reflects average cave temperature, and that pollen-derived coldest and warmest month temperatures reflect the range of condensation temperatures of rain above the cave site. This approach constrains a range of values between which speleothem δ18O changes should be found if controlled only by surface temperature variations at the cave site. Deviations of the change in δ18Ocspel values from the calculated temperature-constrained range of change are interpreted towards large-scale variability of climate-hydrology. Following this approach, we show that an additional ∼0.6‰ enrichment of δ18Oc in the POM2 stalagmite was caused by changing hydrological patterns in SW Romania across the middle Holocene, most likely comprising local evaporation from the soil and an increase in Mediterranean moisture δ18O. Further, by extending the calculations to other speleothem records from around the entire Mediterranean basin, it appears that all eastern Mediterranean speleothems recorded a similar isotopic enrichment due to changing hydrology, whereas all changes recorded in speleothems from the western Mediterranean are fully explained by temperature variation alone. This highlights a different hydrological evolution between the two sides of the Mediterranean. Our results also demonstrate that during the 8.2 ka event, POM2 stable isotope data essentially fit the temperature-constrained isotopic variability. In the case of the 3.2 ka event, an additional climate-related hydrological factor is more evident. This implies a different rainfall pattern in the Southern Carpathian region during this event at the end of the Bronze Age.

Vulnerability of drained and rewetted organic soils to climate change impacts and associated adaptation options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renou-Wilson, Florence; Müller, Christoph; Wilson, David

2016-04-01

With 20% of the land covered with peat soils, Ireland needs to develop a deeper understanding among stakeholders of the potential vulnerability of peatlands and organic soils to climate change (both gradual and extreme events) in the context of current land use changes. The fate of carbon in organic soils is critical for predicting future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. While keeping carbon stock in organic soils (for example by rewetting drained sites) can be an effective mitigation measures to reduce CO2 emissions, adaptation options are also required to ensure their 'resilience'. Rewetting of drained organic soils has been initiated at several sites across the country with the aim to (i) reduce net GHG emissions at the source and/or (ii) create suitable conditions for carbon sequestration in active peatland habitats. We present here two sites: an industrial cutaway peatland and an extensive grassland over organic soil, where long-term (> 4 years) environmental and GHG flux (chamber) datasets in both drained and rewetted areas have provided information on the impact of annual weather variability on net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Statistical response functions estimated for gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were used to reconstruct annual CO2 balances using site-specific models driven by soil temperature, solar radiation, soil water table levels and leaf area index. The modification of some of the model parameters to fit predicted future climate scenarios for the region allowed potential changes in modelled NEE to be assessed. Both sites were, on average, an annual source of CO2 when drained (138 - 232 g C m-2 yr-1) and a sink when rewetted (ranging from -40 g C m-2 yr-1 in the ungrazed rewetted grassland to a maximum of -260 g C m-2 yr-1 in the rewetted cutaway). At both sites, soil temperatures and water table levels varied significantly between all years. Average NEE at each site displayed a very large standard deviation over the years suggesting a strong influence of external factors (weather variability) and vegetation change in some cases. Such wide variation in annual NEE values is not encountered in their natural counterparts within the same region. Under simulated moderate scenarios of (i) increased soil temperature (1° C) and (ii) deeper WT (-10cm) (both seasonal and/or annual), the rewetted areas always displayed a larger change (increase) in annual NEE compared to the drained areas. Furthermore, all rewetted sites became CO2 sources when both parameters were altered simultaneously over 4 years. Although positive feedbacks from vegetation may occur following such environmental changes, it is expected that the rewetted peatland areas will remain at risk under even moderate levels of climate change and may therefore require further intervention.

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

2008-01-01

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall.Synthesis. Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall.

A six hundred-year annual minimum temperature history for the central Tibetan Plateau derived from tree-ring width series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Minhui; Yang, Bao; Datsenko, Nina M.

2014-08-01

The recent unprecedented warming found in different regions has aroused much attention in the past years. How temperature has really changed on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) remains unknown since very limited high-resolution temperature series can be found over this region, where large areas of snow and ice exist. Herein, we develop two Juniperus tibetica Kom. tree-ring width chronologies from different elevations. We found that the two tree-ring series only share high-frequency variability. Correlation, response function and partial correlation analysis indicate that prior year annual (January-December) minimum temperature is most responsible for the higher belt juniper radial growth, while more or less precipitation signal is contained by the tree-ring width chronology at the lower belt and is thus excluded from further analysis. The tree growth-climate model accounted for 40 % of the total variance in actual temperature during the common period 1957-2010. The detected temperature signal is further robustly verified by other results. Consequently, a six century long annual minimum temperature history was firstly recovered for the Yushu region, central TP. Interestingly, the rapid warming trend during the past five decades is identified as a significant cold phase in the context of the past 600 years. The recovered temperature series reflects low-frequency variability consistent with other temperature reconstructions over the whole TP region. Furthermore, the present recovered temperature series is associated with the Asian monsoon strength on decadal to multidecadal scales over the past 600 years.

The Effect of Large Scale Climate Oscillations on the Land Surface Phenology of the Northern Polar Regions and Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Beurs, K.; Henebry, G. M.; Owsley, B.; Sokolik, I. N.

2016-12-01

Land surface phenology metrics allow for the summarization of long image time series into a set of annual observations that describe the vegetated growing season. These metrics have been shown to respond to both large scale climatic and anthropogenic impacts. In this study we assemble a time series (2001 - 2014) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectance data and land surface temperature data at 0.05º spatial resolution. We then derive land surface phenology metrics focusing on the peak of the growing season by fitting quadratic regression models using NDVI and Accumulated Growing Degree-Days (AGDD) derived from land surface temperature. We link the annual information on the peak timing, the thermal time to peak and the maximum of the growing season with five of the most important large scale climate oscillations: NAO, AO, PDO, PNA and ENSO. We demonstrate several significant correlations between the climate oscillations and the land surface phenology peak metrics for a range of different bioclimatic regions in both dryland Central Asia and the northern Polar Regions. We will then link the correlation results with trends derived by the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend detection method applied to several satellite derived vegetation and albedo datasets.

Oxygen isotope ratios in trees reflect mean annual temperature and humidity.

PubMed

Burk, R L; Stuiver, M

1981-03-27

Values of the oxygen isotope ratios (delta(18)O) in tree-ring cellulose closely reflect the delta(18)O values in atmospheric precipitation and hence mean annual temperature. The change in delta(18)O in cellulose is 0.41 per mil per degree Celsius for selected near-coastal stations. The values of delta(18)O in precipitation and cellulose also change with altitude, as demonstrated for Mount Rainier, Washington. A temperature lapse rate of 5.2 degrees +/- 0.5 degrees C per 1000 meters calculated from cellulose delta(18)O values agrees with the accepted mean annual lapse rate of 5 degrees C per 1000 meters for this region. Cellulose delta(18)O values and delta(18)O values of carbon dioxide equilibrated with leaf water differ by a fixed 16 per mil.

Periodic variations in stratospheric-mesospheric temperature from 20-65 km at 80 N to 30 S

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nastrom, G. D.; Belmont, A. D.

1975-01-01

Results on large-scale periodic variations of the stratospheric-mesospheric temperature field based on Meteorological Rocket Network (MRN) measurements are reported for a long-term (12-year) mean, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the first three harmonics of the annual wave (annual wave, semi-annual wave, and terannual wave or 4-month variation). Station-to-station comparisons are tabulated and charted for amplitude and phase of periodic variations in the temperature field. Masking and biasing factors, such as diurnal tides, solar radiation variations, mean monthly variations, instrument lag, aerodynamic heating, are singled out for attention. Models of the stratosphere will have to account for these oscillations of different periods in the thermal field and related properties of the wind fields, with multilayered horizontal stratification with height taken into account.-

Spatio-temporal variability of lake CH4 fluxes and its influence on annual estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natchimuthu, S.; Sundgren, I.; Gålfalk, M.; Klemedtsson, L.; Crill, P. M.; Danielsson, Å.; Bastviken, D.

2014-12-01

Lakes are major sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere and it has been shown that lakes contribute significantly to the global CH4 budget. However, the data behind these global estimates are snapshots in time and space only and they typically lack information on spatial and temporal variability of fluxes which can potentially lead to biased estimates. Recent studies have shown that diffusive flux, gas exchange velocity (k), ebullition and concentration of CH4 in the surface water can vary significantly in space within lakes. CH4 fluxes can also change at a broad range of temporal scales in response to seasons, temperature, lake mixing events, short term weather events like pressure variations, shifting winds and diel cycles. We sampled CH4 fluxes and surface water concentrations from three lakes of differing characteristics in southwest Sweden over two annual cycles, approximately every 14 days from April to October 2012 and from April to November 2013. CH4 fluxes were measured using floating chambers distributed in the lakes based on depth categories and dissolved CH4 concentrations were determined by a headspace equilibration method. We observed significant differences in CH4 concentration, diffusion, ebullition and total fluxes between and within the lakes. The fluxes increased exponentially with temperature in all three lakes and water temperature, for example, explained 53-78% of variations in total fluxes in the lakes. Based on our data which relied on improved spatial and temporal information, we demonstrate that measurements which do not take into account of the spatial variability in the lakes could substantially bias the whole lake estimates. For instance, in one of the lakes, measurements from the central parts of the lake represented only 58% of our estimates from all chambers on an average. In addition, we consider how intensive sampling in one season of the year may affect the annual estimates due to the complex interaction of temperature, air pressure and lake mixing events on CH4 fluxes. For example, samples collected when the average air temperatures during chamber deployments were above 15 °C overestimated the total fluxes by 17-157% in all lakes when compared to averages from all measurement times.

Reconstructing thermal properties of firn at Summit, Greenland from a temperature profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giese, A. L.; Hawley, R. L.

2013-12-01

Thermodynamic properties of firn are important factors when considering energy balance and temperature-dependent physical processes in the near-surface of glaciers. Of particular interest is thermal diffusivity, which can take a range of values and which governs both the temperature gradient and its evolution through time. Given that temperature is a well-established driver of firn densification, a better understanding of heat transfer will permit greater accuracy in the compaction models essential for interpreting inter-annual and seasonal ice surface elevation changes detected by airborne and satellite altimetry. Due to its dependence on microstructure, diffusivity can vary significantly by location. Rather than directly measuring diffusivity or one of its proxies (e.g. density, hardness, shear strength), this study inverts the heat equation to reconstruct diffusivity values. This is a less logistically-intensive approach which circumvents many of the challenges associated with imperfect proxies and snow metamorphism during measurement. Hourly records (May 2004 - July 2008) from 8 thermistors placed in the top 10 m at Summit, Greenland provide temperature values for Summit's firn, which is broadly representative of firn across the ice sheet's dry snow zone. In this study, we use both physical analysis and a finite-difference numerical model to determine a diffusivity magnitude and gradient; we find that diffusivity of Summit firn falls in the lower end of the range expected from local density and temperature conditions alone (i.e. 15 - 36 m^2/a for firn at -30C). Further, we assess the utility of our modeling approach, explore the validity of assuming bulk conductive heat transfer when modeling temperature changes in non-homogeneous firn, and investigate the implications of a low-end diffusivity value for surface compaction modeling in Greenland.

Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature.

PubMed

Wallace, Dorothy; Prosper, Olivia; Savos, Jacob; Dunham, Ann M; Chipman, Jonathan W; Shi, Xun; Ndenga, Bryson; Githeko, Andrew

2017-03-01

A dynamical model of Anopheles gambiae larval and adult populations is constructed that matches temperature-dependent maturation times and mortality measured experimentally as well as larval instar and adult mosquito emergence data from field studies in the Kenya Highlands. Spectral classification of high-resolution satellite imagery is used to estimate household density. Indoor resting densities collected over a period of one year combined with predictions of the dynamical model give estimates of both aquatic habitat and total adult mosquito densities. Temperature and precipitation patterns are derived from monthly records. Precipitation patterns are compared with average and extreme habitat estimates to estimate available aquatic habitat in an annual cycle. These estimates are coupled with the original model to produce estimates of adult and larval populations dependent on changing aquatic carrying capacity for larvae and changing maturation and mortality dependent on temperature. This paper offers a general method for estimating the total area of aquatic habitat in a given region, based on larval counts, emergence rates, indoor resting density data, and number of households.Altering the average daily temperature and the average daily rainfall simulates the effect of climate change on annual cycles of prevalence of An. gambiae adults. We show that small increases in average annual temperature have a large impact on adult mosquito density, whether measured at model equilibrium values for a single square meter of habitat or tracked over the course of a year of varying habitat availability and temperature. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatial distribution of podoconiosis in relation to environmental factors in Ethiopia: a historical review.

PubMed

Deribe, Kebede; Brooker, Simon J; Pullan, Rachel L; Hailu, Asrat; Enquselassie, Fikre; Reithinger, Richard; Newport, Melanie; Davey, Gail

2013-01-01

An up-to-date and reliable map of podoconiosis is needed to design geographically targeted and cost-effective intervention in Ethiopia. Identifying the ecological correlates of the distribution of podoconiosis is the first step for distribution and risk maps. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial distribution and ecological correlates of podoconiosis using historical and contemporary survey data. Data on the observed prevalence of podoconiosis were abstracted from published and unpublished literature into a standardized database, according to strict inclusion and exclusion criteria. In total, 10 studies conducted between 1969 and 2012 were included, and data were available for 401,674 individuals older than 15 years of age from 229 locations. A range of high resolution environmental factors were investigated to determine their association with podoconiosis prevalence, using logistic regression. The prevalence of podoconiosis in Ethiopia was estimated at 3.4% (95% CI 3.3%-3.4%) with marked regional variation. We identified significant associations between mean annual Land Surface Temperature (LST), mean annual precipitation, topography of the land and fine soil texture and high prevalence of podoconiosis. The derived maps indicate both widespread occurrence of podoconiosis and a marked variability in prevalence of podoconiosis, with prevalence typically highest at altitudes >1500 m above sea level (masl), with >1500 mm annual rainfall and mean annual LST of 19-21°C. No (or very little) podoconiosis occurred at altitudes <1225 masl, with annual rainfall <900 mm, and mean annual LST of >24°C. Podoconiosis remains a public health problem in Ethiopia over considerable areas of the country, but exhibits marked geographical variation associated in part with key environmental factors. This is work in progress and the results presented here will be refined in future work.

Bird species migration ratio in East Asia, Australia, and surrounding islands.

PubMed

Kuo, Yiliang; Lin, Da-Li; Chuang, Fu-Man; Lee, Pei-Fen; Ding, Tzung-Su

2013-08-01

Bird migration and its relationship with the contemporary environment have attracted long-term discussion. We calculated the avian migration ratio (the proportion of breeding species that migrate) in the areas from 70°E to 180°E and examined its relationship with the annual ranges of ambient temperature, primary productivity (estimated by the Enhanced Vegetation Index), and precipitation, along with island isolation and elevational range. The avian migration ratio increased with increasing latitude in general but varied greatly between the two hemispheres. Additionally, it showed minimal differences between continents and islands. Our analyses revealed that the seasonality of ambient temperature, which represents the energy expenditure of birds, is the dominant factor in determining bird species migration. Seasonality in primary productivity and other environmental factors play an indirect or limited role in bird species migration. The lower avian migration ratio in the Southern Hemisphere can be attributed to its paleogeographical isolation, stable paleoclimate, and warm contemporary environment. Under current trends of global warming, our findings should lead to further studies of the impact of warming on bird migration.

Bird species migration ratio in East Asia, Australia, and surrounding islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Yiliang; Lin, Da-Li; Chuang, Fu-Man; Lee, Pei-Fen; Ding, Tzung-Su

2013-08-01

Bird migration and its relationship with the contemporary environment have attracted long-term discussion. We calculated the avian migration ratio (the proportion of breeding species that migrate) in the areas from 70°E to 180°E and examined its relationship with the annual ranges of ambient temperature, primary productivity (estimated by the Enhanced Vegetation Index), and precipitation, along with island isolation and elevational range. The avian migration ratio increased with increasing latitude in general but varied greatly between the two hemispheres. Additionally, it showed minimal differences between continents and islands. Our analyses revealed that the seasonality of ambient temperature, which represents the energy expenditure of birds, is the dominant factor in determining bird species migration. Seasonality in primary productivity and other environmental factors play an indirect or limited role in bird species migration. The lower avian migration ratio in the Southern Hemisphere can be attributed to its paleogeographical isolation, stable paleoclimate, and warm contemporary environment. Under current trends of global warming, our findings should lead to further studies of the impact of warming on bird migration.

Evaluating climate variability and management impacts on carbon dynamics of a temperate forest using a variety of techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arain, M. A.

2015-12-01

Climate variability, extreme weather events, forest age and management history impacts carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. A variety of measurement techniques such as eddy covariance, dendrochronology, automatic soil CO2 chambers and remote sensing are employed fully understand forest carbon dynamics. Here, we present carbon flux measurements from 2003-2014 in a 76-year old managed temperate pine ((-Pinus strobus L.) forest, near Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada. Forest was partially thinned (30% tree harvested) in 1983 and 2012. The thinning in 2012 did not significantly impact carbon fluxes as post-thinning fluxes were within the range of inter-annual variability. Mean annual post-thinning (2012-2104) gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) measure by the eddy covariance technique was 1518 ± 78 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to pre-thinning (2003-2011) GEP of 1384 ± 121 g C m-2·year-1. Over the same period, mean post-thinning net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 185 ± 75 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to post-thinning NEP of 180 ± 70 g C m-2 year-1, indicating that pre-thinning NEP was not significantly different than post-thinning NEP. Only post-thinning mean annual ecosystem respiration (Re; 1322 ± 54 g C m-2 year-1) was higher than pre-thinning Re (1195 ± 101 g C m-2 year-1). Soil CO2 efflux measurements showed similar trends. We also evaluated the impacts of climate variability and management regime on the full life cycle of the forest using annual radial tree-ring growths from 15 trees and compared them with historical climate (temperature and precipitation) data. While the annual growth rates displayed weak correlation with long-term climatic records, the growth was generally reduced during years with extreme drought (-36% of mean annual precipitation) and extreme temperature variability (±0.6 - 1.0°C). Overall, forest was more sensitive to management regime than climate variability. It showed higher growth stress during low light condition after crown closure. When partial thinning was introduced in 1983, it responded slowly and took about 5 to 7 years to show measureable increase in its growth, despite favorable climatic conditions. This study will help to advance our understanding of carbon dynamic of forest ecosystems.

Subsurface urban heat islands in German cities.

PubMed

Menberg, Kathrin; Bayer, Peter; Zosseder, Kai; Rumohr, Sven; Blum, Philipp

2013-01-01

Little is known about the intensity and extension of subsurface urban heat islands (UHI), and the individual role of the driving factors has not been revealed either. In this study, we compare groundwater temperatures in shallow aquifers beneath six German cities of different size (Berlin, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt, Karlsruhe and Darmstadt). It is revealed that hotspots of up to +20K often exist, which stem from very local heat sources, such as insufficiently insulated power plants, landfills or open geothermal systems. When visualizing the regional conditions in isotherm maps, mostly a concentric picture is found with the highest temperatures in the city centers. This reflects the long-term accumulation of thermal energy over several centuries and the interplay of various factors, particularly in heat loss from basements, elevated ground surface temperatures (GST) and subsurface infrastructure. As a primary indicator to quantify and compare large-scale UHI intensity the 10-90%-quantile range UHII(10-90) of the temperature distribution is introduced. The latter reveals, in comparison to annual atmospheric UHI intensities, an even more pronounced heating of the shallow subsurface. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monitoring of soil and air-rock temperatures in the Western Massif of the Picos de Europa (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Fernández, Jesús; Vieira, Gonçalo; García, Cristina

2013-04-01

In this paper we study the ground thermal regime and air-rock interface in the Western Massif of the Picos de Europa (Cantabrian Range, Spain). This calcareous massif is highly affected by karstification processes. Quaternary glaciers, fluvio-torrential processes and present-day periglacial processes also contribute to explain the landforms present in this massif. Up to 9 dataloggers were installed during 6 years in different sites in terms of altitude, orientation, slope and geomorpolohical setting recording temperatures every two hours. The number of freeze-thaw cycles in the soil(between 0 and 16) was controlled by the depth of the snow cover. The temperatures in the interface rock-air showed between 30-60 cycles, reaching 119 and 130 during the year 2007-2008. Extreme minimum temperatures in the soil oscillate between 0.3 and -6.3, while in the rocky walls the loggers recorded temperatures between -7.3 and -14.3°C. Monitoring of soil temperatures around the ice patch - the only one in the massif today - resulted in slightly negative mean annual temperatures. These conditions may reveal the existence of sporadic permafrost on debris that cover the ice patch. Both the buried ice and the permafrost are in disequilibrium with the current environmental conditions of the massif.

Palaeoecological construction from the Oligo-Miocene coal deposits of Gelibolu Peninsula, NW Turkey.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirtaş, Ferdi; Koşun, Erdal; Serkan Akkiraz, Mehmet; Bozcu, Mustafa; Koç, Koray

2015-04-01

The palynomorph composition of the Upper Oligocene and Miocene coal deposits from Gelibolu peninsula, NW Turkey, was analyzed to determine the palaeoclimate conditions. The samples were collected from two different abandoned coal mines. Also two different palynological assemblages were reported. The first one belongs to the Late Oligocene (Osmancik Formation). The other one is the Miocene (Gazhanedere Formation). The Late Oligocene palynological assemblage consist mainly of Alnus, Myricaceae, Cyrillaceae-Clethraceae, Calamus and Castanea. Riparian vegetation or wetland forest community incorporate high amounts of Alnus, and low percentages of deciduous Salix, Pterocarya and Carya. Calamus, which is a stratigraphical marker for the Late Oligocene of the Thrace Basin, was also recorded in high quantities. The content of the Miocene palynological assemblage is different from the Late Oligocene assemblage, and is mainly made up of Polypodiaceae, Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae, Myricaceae, Oleaceae, Cyrillaceae-Clethraceae and Sapotaceae. Calamus and Alnus totally disappear here. In contrast, open vegetation elements such Poaceae and Chenopodiaceae occur frequently. The palaeoclimate calculations were made by the help of coexistence approach method. The late Oligocene association contains a total of 18 taxa, 11 of which were used for calculating the coexistence intervals. The values obtained 15.6 to 21.1 ° C for annual temperature, 5.0 to 13.3 ° C for winter temperature, 24.7 to 28.1 ° C for summer temperature and, 1096 to 1355 mm annual rainfall. In the Miocene palynological assemblage 23 taxa were identified. The palaeoclimate calculation is based on the 21 taxa. Quantitative data indicate the values for the mean annual temperature 15.6-21.3 ° C, for the winter temperature 5.0 to 13.3 ° C, 24.7- 27.9 ° C for summer temperature and 823-1520 mm for the annual rainfall. The palaeoclimate was warm and contained dry seasons due to lower boundary of annual precipitation lying at 823 mm during the Miocene. This may be linked ecological dominance of open-habitat grasses such as Poaceae and Chenopodiaceae.

The role of minerals and mean annual temperature on soil carbon accumulation: A modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramoff, R. Z.; Georgiou, K.; Tang, J.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.

2016-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest actively cycling terrestrial C pool with mean residence times that can exceed 10,000 years. There is strong evidence suggesting that SOC dynamics depend on soil temperature and C inputs to soil through net primary production (NPP), but it is unclear what the relative importance of these factors is relative to SOC protection by minerals. Recent empirical studies have suggested that mineral protection explains more variation in SOC stock sizes and C respiration fluxes than does NPP or climate. Our previous modeling has demonstrated that representing the chemistry of mineral sorption in a microbially-explicit model affects the temperature sensitivity of SOC dynamics. We apply this modeling framework to interpret observations of SOC stocks, mineral surface availability, mean annual temperature (MAT), and NPP collected along a 4,000 km transect in South America. We use a Random Forest machine learning algorithm and regression to analyze our model output and the empirical data. This analysis shows that mineral surface availability is the dominant control over C respiration and SOC stock, and is substantially larger than the effects of belowground NPP. We further show that minerals interact with MAT to determine the observed range of SOC stocks along this transect in the present day, as well as projected SOC stocks under long-term warming. Our model-data comparison suggests that soil mineralogy and MAT will explain the majority of the spatial variation in SOC stock over decadal-to-millennial timescales. We extend the analysis of these interactions using the ACME Land Model (ALM) coupled with an explicit representation of microbes, minerals, and vertical transport of solutes and gases. The model results confirm the dominant effects of minerals on organic matter decomposition throughout the soil column.

Long-term climate record inferred from early-middle Pleistocene amphibian and squamate reptile assemblages at the Gran Dolina Cave, Atapuerca, Spain.

PubMed

Blain, Hugues-Alexandre; Bailon, Salvador; Cuenca-Bescós, Gloria; Arsuaga, Juan Luis; Bermúdez de Castro, José Maria; Carbonell, Eudald

2009-01-01

The Gran Dolina cave site is famous for having delivered some of the oldest hominin remains of Western Europe (Homo antecessor, ca. 960 ka). Moreover, the evidence of lithic industries throughout the long vertical section suggests occupation on the part of hominins from the latest early Pleistocene (levels TD3/4, TD5, and TD6) to the late middle Pleistocene (level TD10). The Gran Dolina Sondeo Sur (TDS) has furnished a great number of small-vertebrate remains; among them some 40,000 bones are attributed to amphibians and squamates. Although they do not differ specifically from the extant herpetofauna of the Iberian Peninsula, the overlap of their current distribution areas (= mutual climatic range method) in Spain can provide mean annual temperatures (MAT), the mean temperatures of the coldest (MTC) and warmest (MTW) months, and mean annual precipitation (MAP) estimations for each sub-level, and their change can be studied throughout the sequence. Results from the squamate and amphibian study indicate that during hominin occupation the MAT (10-13 degrees C) was always slightly warmer than at present in the vicinity of the Gran Dolina Cave, and the MAP (800-1000mm) was greater than today in the Burgos area. Climatic differences between "glacial" and "interglacial" phases are poorly marked. Summer temperatures (MTW) show stronger oscillations than winter temperatures (MTC), but seasonality remains almost unchanged throughout the sequence. These results are compared with those for large mammals, small mammals, and pollen analysis, giving a scenario for the palaeoclimatic conditions that occurred during the early to middle Pleistocene in Atapuerca, and hence a scenario for the hominins that once lived in the Sierra de Atapuerca.

Rapid age determination of oysters using LA-ICP-MS line scans of shell Mg/Ca ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillikin, D. P.; Durham, S. R.; Goodwin, D. H.

2016-02-01

Magnesium to calcium (Mg/Ca) ratios exhibit a strong temperature dependence in foraminifera and corals, but not in bivalve mollusks. Various studies have reported Mg/Ca-temperature relationships with R2 values ranging from 0.3 to 0.8 and significantly different relationships for bivalves growing at different salinities. However, this poor temperature correlation does not render Mg/Ca data useless. A weak temperature dependence would allow time (seasons and years) to be determined along the growth axis of shells. This would provide information about age, growth rate and also allow other proxies to be aligned with time. Typically, oxygen isotopes (δ18O) are used to age shells without clear periodic growth lines, which is time consuming and expensive. Line scans using laser ablation systems can cover several centimeters of shell in a few minutes. We test this method on the resilifer of two oyster species (Crassostrea gigas and C. virginica) using a 193 nm Laser-Ablation-ICP-MS. Living oysters were collected from San Francisco Bay, North Carolina, South Carolina, and the Gulf of Mexico; fossil shells (Pleistocene) were also collected in South Carolina. Shells were sampled for δ18O values and Mg/Ca ratios. We use annual cycles in δ18O values to confidently determine age, then apply the Mg/Ca technique. Shells of both species exhibit annual cyclicity in Mg/Ca ratios using spot and line scan laser sampling, which matche the seasonal cyclicity determined using δ18O values. Results show a good correlation between ages determined using the different methods. We conclude that LA-ICP-MS line scans offer a rapid and inexpensive technique for determining age, growth rate, and timing of shell growth in oyster reslifers.

FirnCover: Observations on the evolution of firn compaction, firn temperatures and porosity in the interior of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacFerrin, M. J.; Stevens, C.; Colgan, W. T.; Waddington, E. D.; Abdalati, W.

2016-12-01

As Greenland warms, increasing amounts of summer meltwater are changing the behavior of snow and firn in high-elevation regions of the ice. The Firn Compaction Verification and Reconnaissance (FirnCover) network in Greenland provides real-time measurements of compaction, firn temperatures and other observations across Greenland's interior, ranging from regions of dry snow to areas of heavy melt and refreezing. Here we present results from FirnCover measurements that illustrate a distinct shift in seasonal thermal cycles within the firn in regions with increased melt, whereby seasonal temperature cycles are both enhanced (in magnitude) and delayed (in timing) in response to increased latent heat from refreezing. Seasonal firn-compaction rates correlate strongly with these thermal cycles. Comparisons to historical cores illustrate that despite warming temperatures, compaction rates have not changed substantially in dry-snow regions of Greenland where meltwater has not yet been generated to a significant degree. In regions with enhanced melt and refreezing, historical comparisons indicate annual rates of compaction have dramatically increased in recent decades. In regions where near-surface firn has exceeded a critical saturation cutoff, water has begun to run off downhill rather than refreezing in years of high melt. In such regions these seasonal thermal cycles (and corresponding compaction rates) are greatly reduced due to the isolation of deep firn from meltwater above. We present current observations that suggest such saturated regions are rapidly expanding in Greenland in response to warming and enhanced summer melt. We outline the strong implications these observations have for interpreting Greenland's seasonal and inter-annual mass balance from airborne and satellite altimetry, as well as for the future evolution of runoff from Greenland's interior in a warming climate.

A view of annual water quality cycle and inter-annual variations in agricultural headwater catchment (Kervidy-Naizin, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubert, A.; Gascuel-odoux, C.; Merot, P.; Grimaldi, C.; Gruau, G.; Ruiz, L.

2011-12-01

Climatic conditions impact biotransformation and transfer of solutes. Therefore, they modify solute emissions in streams. Studying these modifications requires long term and detailed monitoring of both internal processes and river loads, which are rarely combined. The Kervidy-Naizin catchment, implemented in 1993, is part of the French network of catchment for environmental research (SOERE RBV, focused on the Critical Zone). It is an intensive agricultural catchment located in a temperate climate in Western France (Brittany) (Molenat et al., 2008; Morel et al., 2009). It presents shallow aquifers due to impervious bedrock. Both hydrology and water chemistry are monitored with a daily time step since 2000-01, as well as possible explanatory data (land use, meteorology, etc.). Concentrations in major anions in this catchment are extremely high, which make people call it a "saturated" catchment. We identified annual patterns for chloride, sulphate, dissolved organic and inorganic carbon and nitrate concentration variations. First, we considered the complete set of concentration data as function of the time. From that, we foresaw 3 cyclic temporal patterns. Then, from representing the concentrations as function of meteorological parameters, intra-annual hysteretic variations and their inter-annual variations were clearly identified. Our driving question is to know if and how climatic conditions are responsible for variations of the patterns in and between years. In winter, i.e. rainy and cold period, rainfall is closely linked to discharge because of a direct recharge to the shallow groundwater. Reversely, in transition periods (spring and fall) and hot periods, both rainfall and temperature influences discharge in relation to their range of variations. Moreover, biological processes, driven by temperature and wetness, also act during these periods. On the whole, we can emphasize the specificity of water chemistry patterns for each element. Noticeable differences between hot and cold years and between wet and dry years can mainly be observed during spring and autumn period, i.e. when combining variations of rainfall and temperature. Further jointed statistical analyses between water chemistry and meteorology have to be carried on. References Molenat, J., Gascuel-Odoux, C., Ruiz, L., and Gruau, G. (2008). Role of water table dynamics on stream nitrate export and concentration. in agricultural headwater catchment (France). Journal of Hydrology 348, 363-378. Morel, B., Durand, P., Jaffrezic, A., Gruau, G., and Molenat, J. (2009). Sources of dissolved organic carbon during stormflow in a headwater agricultural catchment. Hydrological Processes 23, 2888-2901.

Geographic variation in wood specific gravity: effects of latitude, temperature, and precipitation

Treesearch

Michael C. Wiemann; G. Bruce Williamson

2002-01-01

Wood basic specific gravity (SG) was compared at sites located along a gradient from 52°N latitude to the equator. Mean SG increased by 0.0049 per °C mean annual temperature (MAT), and decreased by 0.00017 per cm of mean annual precipitation (MAP). Considered alone, MAT was a better predictor of mean SG across the temperate zone (3-22°C MAT,...

Lightweight Aggregate Made from Dredged Material in Green Roof Construction for Stormwater Management.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Coffman, Reid

2016-07-23

More than 1.15 million cubic meters (1.5 million cubic yards) of sediment require annual removal from harbors and ports along Ohio's Lake Erie coast. Disposing of these materials into landfills depletes land resources, while open water placement of these materials deteriorates water quality. There are more than 14,000 acres of revitalizing brownfields in Cleveland, U.S., many containing up to 90% impervious surface, which does not allow "infiltration" based stormwater practices required by contemporary site-based stormwater regulation. This study investigates the potential of sintering the dredged material from the Harbor of Cleveland in Lake Erie to produce lightweight aggregate (LWA), and apply the LWA to green roof construction. Chemical and thermal analyses revealed the sintered material can serve for LWA production when preheated at 550 °C and sintered at a higher temperature. Through dewatering, drying, sieving, pellet making, preheating, and sintering with varying temperatures (900-1100 °C), LWAs with porous microstructures are produced with specific gravities ranging from 1.46 to 1.74, and water absorption capacities ranging from 11% to 23%. The water absorption capacity of the aggregate decreases as sintering temperature increases. The LWA was incorporated into the growing media of a green roof plot, which has higher water retention capacity than the conventional green roof system.