Characterizing the Lower Paleolithic bone industry from Schöningen 12 II: A multi-proxy study.

PubMed

Julien, Marie-Anne; Hardy, Bruce; Stahlschmidt, Mareike C; Urban, Brigitte; Serangeli, Jordi; Conard, Nicholas J

2015-12-01

Although preservation of Paleolithic faunal assemblages from open-air settings is often poor, the Lower Paleolithic sites of Schöningen provide exceptionally well-preserved mammalian faunal material for investigating hominin/animal relationships. Pleistocene fossil assemblages, however, usually reflect a complex taphonomic history in which natural and anthropogenic processes are often superimposed. A number of examples of osseous finds that resemble tools were recently discovered in the MIS 9 deposits of Schöningen 12 II. Non-anthropogenic agents are known to produce surface modifications mimicking human artifacts and the identification of osseous remains used and/or deliberately modified by ancient hominins is often controversial in such old contexts. Multiple lines of evidence are thus useful for distinguishing between osseous artifacts and "eco-facts". In this paper, the recognition of the use of bone for different technological purposes by late Middle Pleistocene hominins is addressed through a multi-proxy study combining geoarcheology, bone taphonomy, zooarcheology, and use-wear analysis. This allowed the identification of the processes and agents responsible for the formation and modification of the different bone assemblages of Schöningen 12 II. Our analysis points to different types of bones having been likely used as tools. These results expand the diversity of the organic technological repertoire of the Middle Pleistocene hominins, making Schöningen 12 II a remarkable new source of information on osseous technology long before the Upper Paleolithic, the period traditionally viewed as the start of the systematic use of bone tools. Together with other observations of bone tools documented during the Lower and Middle Paleolithic, the results from Schöningen show that archeologists may have underestimated the diversity and importance of osseous technology among archaic hominins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climatic and anthropogenic controls on Mississippi River floods: a multi-proxy palaeoflood approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, S. E.; Therrell, M. D.; Remo, J. W.; Giosan, L.; Donnelly, J. P.

2017-12-01

Over the last century, many of the world's major rivers have been modified for the purposes of flood mitigation, power generation, and commercial navigation. Engineering modifications to the Mississippi River system have altered the river's sediment budget and channel morphology, but the influence of these modifications on flood risk is debated. Detecting and attributing changes in river discharge is challenging because instrumental streamflow records are often too short to evaluate the range of natural hydrological variability prior to the establishment of flood mitigation infrastructure. Here we show that multi-decadal trends of flood risk on the lower Mississippi River are strongly modulated by dynamical modes of climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), but that artificial channelization has greatly amplified flood magnitudes over the last century. Our results, based on a multi-proxy reconstruction of flood frequency and magnitude spanning the last five hundred years that combines sedimentary, tree-ring, and instrumental records, reveal that the magnitude of the 100-year flood has increased by 20% over the period of record, with 75% of this increase attributed to river engineering. We conclude that the interaction of human alterations to the Mississippi River system with dynamical modes of climate variability has elevated the current flood risk to levels that are unprecedented within the last five centuries.

Contrasting pattern of hydrological changes during the past two millennia from central and northern India: Regional climate difference or anthropogenic impact?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Praveen K.; Prasad, Sushma; Marwan, Norbert; Anoop, A.; Krishnan, R.; Gaye, Birgit; Basavaiah, N.; Stebich, Martina; Menzel, Philip; Riedel, Nils

2018-02-01

High resolution reconstructions of the India Summer Monsoon (ISM) are essential to identify regionally different patterns of climate change and refine predictive models. We find opposing trends of hydrological proxies between northern (Sahiya cave stalagmite) and central India (Lonar Lake) between 100 and 1300 CE with the strongest anti-correlation between 810 and 1300 CE. The apparently contradictory data raise the question if these are related to widely different regional precipitation patterns or reflect human influence in/around the Lonar Lake. By comparing multiproxy data with historical records, we demonstrate that only the organic proxies in the Lonar Lake show evidence of anthropogenic impact. However, evaporite data (mineralogy and δ18O) are indicative of precipitation/evaporation (P/E) into the Lonar Lake. Back-trajectories of air-mass circulation over northern and central India show that the relative contribution of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) branch of the ISM is crucial for determining the δ18O of carbonate proxies only in north India, whereas central India is affected significantly by the Arabian Sea (AS) branch of the ISM. We conclude that the δ18O of evaporative carbonates in the Lonar Lake reflects P/E and, in the interval under consideration, is not influenced by source water changes. The opposing trend between central and northern India can be explained by (i) persistent multidecadal droughts over central India between 810 and 1300 CE that provided an effective mechanism for strengthening sub-tropical westerly winds resulting in enhancement of wintertime (non-monsoonal) rainfall over northern parts of the Indian subcontinent, and/or (ii) increased moisture influx to northern India from the depleted BoB source waters.

Natural turbidity variability and weather forecasts in risk management of anthropogenic sediment discharge near sensitive environments.

PubMed

Orpin, Alan R; Ridd, Peter V; Thomas, Séverine; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul; Oliver, Jamie

2004-10-01

Coastal development activities can cause local increases in turbidity and sedimentation. This study characterises the spatial and temporal variability of turbidity near an inshore fringing coral reef in the central Great Barrier Reef, under a wide range of natural conditions. Based on the observed natural variability, we outline a risk management scheme to minimise the impact of construction-related turbidity increases. Comparison of control and impact sites proved unusable for real-time management of turbidity risks. Instead, we suggest using one standard deviation from ambient conditions as a possible conservative upper limit of an acceptable projected increase in turbidity. In addition, the use of regional weather forecast as a proxy for natural turbidity is assessed. This approach is simple and cheap but also has limitations in very rough conditions, when an anthropogenic turbidity increase could prove fatal to corals that are already stressed under natural conditions.

Mid- and late Holocene human impact recorded by the Coltrondo peat bog (NE Italian Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segnana, Michela; Poto, Luisa; Gabrieli, Jacopo; Martino, Matteo; Oeggl, Klaus; Barbante, Carlo

2016-04-01

Peat bogs are ideal archives for the study of environmental changes, whether these are natural or human induced. Indeed, receiving water and nutrients exclusively from dry and wet atmospheric depositions, they are among the most suitable matrices for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. The present study is focused on the Eastern sector of the Italian Alps, where we sampled the Coltrondo peat bog, in the Comelico area (ca. 1800 m a.s.l.) The knowledge of the human history in this area is rather scarce: the only pieces of archaeological evidence found in this area dates back to the Mesolithic and the absence of later archaeological finds makes it difficult to reconstruct the human settlement in the valley. With the main aim to obtain information about the human settlement in that area we selected a multi-proxy approach, combining the study of biotic and abiotic sedimentary components archived in the 7900 years-peat bog record. Pollen analysis is performed along the core registering human impacts on the area from ca. 2500 cal BP, when land-use changes are well evidenced by the presence of human-related pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs), as well as by the increase in micro-charcoal particles. Periods of increased human impact are recorded at the end of the Middle Ages and later, at the end of the 19th century. The analysis of trace elements, such as lead, is performed by means of ICP-MS technique and its enrichment factor (EF) is calculated. A first slight increase of Pb EF during Roman Times is possibly related to mining activities carried out by the Romans. Mining activities carried out in the area are registered during the Middle Ages, while the advent of the industrialization in the 20th century is marked by the highest EF values registered on the top of the core. To help and support the interpretation of geochemical data, lead isotopes ratios are also measured using ICP-MS to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic sources of lead. The 206Pb/207Pb ratio clearly records a pre-anthropogenic period from 7800 to 2500 cal BP, followed by a period in which humans impacted on the environment. During the Middle Ages the 206Pb/207Pb ratio values are attributable to mining activities, while during Modern Times they are mostly linked to industrial activities and to the introduction of leaded gasoline in Italy. The phasing out of leaded gasoline in the 1980s is also registered by the peat bog. Finally, the still on-going analysis of organic biomarkers in the peat seems to corroborate the results achieved, adding information about local disturbances on the bog. The multi-proxy approach selected for this study allows us to discriminate between different aspects of the past human presence, such as forest clearance, fires, agriculture, pasture, mining and industrial activities, giving new insights into the history of the Comelico area, still scarcely investigated.

A 150-year record of phytoplankton community succession controlled by hydroclimatic variability in a tropical lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afrifa Yamoah, Kweku; Callac, Nolwenn; Fru, Ernest Chi; Wohlfarth, Barbara; Wiech, Alan; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Smittenberg, Rienk H.

2016-07-01

Climate and human-induced environmental change promote biological regime shifts between alternate stable states, with implications for ecosystem resilience, function, and services. While these effects have been shown for present-day ecosystems, the long-term response of microbial communities has not been investigated in detail. This study assessed the decadal variations in phytoplankton communities in a ca. 150 year long sedimentary archive of Lake Nong Thale Prong (NTP), southern Thailand using a combination of bulk geochemical analysis, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and lipid biomarkers techniques including compound-specific hydrogen isotope analysis as a proxy for precipitation. Relatively drier and by inference warmer conditions from ca. 1857 to 1916 Common Era (CE) coincided with a dominance of the green algae Botryococcus braunii, indicating lower nutrient levels in the oxic lake surface waters, possibly related to lake water stratification. A change to higher silica (Si) input around 1916 CE was linked to increased rainfall and concurs with an abrupt takeover by diatom blooms lasting for 50 years. These were increasingly outcompeted by cyanobacteria from the 1970s onwards, most likely because of increased levels of anthropogenic phosphate and a reduction in rainfall. Our results showcase that the multi-proxy approach applied here provides an efficient way to track centennial-scale limnological, geochemical and microbial change, as influenced by hydroclimatic and anthropogenic forcing.

A Decision Support Framework For Science-Based, Multi-Stakeholder Deliberation: A Coral Reef Example

EPA Science Inventory

We present a decision support framework for science-based assessment and multi-stakeholder deliberation. The framework consists of two parts: a DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses) analysis to identify the important causal relationships among anthropogenic environ...

Anthropogenic Eutrophication of Narragansett Bay: Evidence from Dated Sediment Cores

EPA Science Inventory

The organic matter preserved in estuarine sediments provides a number of useful indicators, or "proxies" that can be used to infer paleoenvironmental changes One type of paleoenvironmental change is anthropogenic eutrophication. The human activity largely responsible for increasi...

Using multi-resolution proxies to assess ENSO impacts on the mean state of the tropical Pacific.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamperidou, C.; Conroy, J. L.

2016-12-01

Observations and model simulations indicate that the relationship between ENSO and the mean state of the tropical Pacific is a two-way interaction. On one hand, a strong zonal SST gradient (dSST) in the Pacific (colder cold tongue) increases the potential intensity of upcoming ENSO events and may lead to increased ENSO variance. On the other hand, in a period of increased ENSO activity, large events can warm the cold tongue at decadal scales via residual heating, and thus lead to reduced zonal SST gradient (ENSO rectification mechanism). The short length of the observational record hinders our ability to confidently evaluate which mechanism dominates in each period, and whether it is sensitive to external climate forcing. This question is effectively a question of interaction between two timescales: interannual and decadal. Paleoclimate proxies of different resolutions can help elucidate this question, since they can be independent records of variability in these separate timescales. Here, we use coral proxies of ENSO variability from across the Pacific and multi-proxy records of dSST at longer timescales. Proxies, models, and observations indicate that in periods of increased ENSO activity, dSST is negatively correlated with ENSO variance at decadal timescales, indicating that strong ENSO events may affect the decadal mean state via warming the cold tongue. Using climate model simulations we attribute this effect to residual nonlinear dynamical heating, thus supporting the ENSO rectification mechanism. On the contrary, in periods without strong events, ENSO variance and dSST are positively correlated, which indicates that the primary mechanism at work is the effect of the mean state on ENSO. Our analysis also quantitatively identifies the regions where paleoclimate proxies are needed in order to reduce the existing uncertainties in ENSO-mean state interactions. Hence, this study is a synthesis of observations, model simulations and paleoclimate proxy evidence guided by the fundamental and open question of multi-scale interactions in the tropical Pacific, and illustrates the need for multi-resolution paleoclimate proxies and their potential uses.

Hemispheric aerosol vertical profiles: anthropogenic impacts on optical depth and cloud nuclei.

PubMed

Clarke, Antony; Kapustin, Vladimir

2010-09-17

Understanding the effect of anthropogenic combustion upon aerosol optical depth (AOD), clouds, and their radiative forcing requires regionally representative aerosol profiles. In this work, we examine more than 1000 vertical profiles from 11 major airborne campaigns in the Pacific hemisphere and confirm that regional enhancements in aerosol light scattering, mass, and number are associated with carbon monoxide from combustion and can exceed values in unperturbed regions by more than one order of magnitude. Related regional increases in a proxy for cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and AOD imply that direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects are coupled issues linked globally to aged combustion. These profiles constrain the influence of combustion on regional AOD and CCN suitable for challenging climate model performance and informing satellite retrievals.

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Ulas; Brandt, Jørgen; Geels, Camilla; Mantzius Hansen, Kaj; Heile Christensen, Jesper; Skou Andersen, Mikael; Solazzo, Efisio; Kioutsioukis, Ioannis; Alyuz, Ummugulsum; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baro, Rocio; Bellasio, Roberto; Bianconi, Roberto; Bieser, Johannes; Colette, Augustin; Curci, Gabriele; Farrow, Aidan; Flemming, Johannes; Fraser, Andrea; Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Liang, Ciao-Kai; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Pirovano, Guido; Pozzoli, Luca; Prank, Marje; Rose, Rebecca; Sokhi, Ranjeet; Tuccella, Paolo; Unal, Alper; Garcia Vivanco, Marta; West, Jason; Yarwood, Greg; Hogrefe, Christian; Galmarini, Stefano

2018-04-01

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ˜ 11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ˜ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20 % decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20 % avoids ˜ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.

Climate variability in China during the last millennium based on reconstructions and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bustamante, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Xoplaki, E.; Werner, J. P.; Jungclaus, J.; Zorita, E.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Hegerl, G.; Ge, Q.; Hao, Z.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

Multi-decadal to centennial climate variability in China during the last millennium is analysed. We compare the low frequency temperature and precipitation variations from proxy-based reconstructions and palaeo-simulations from climate models. Focusing on the regional responses to the global climate evolution is of high relevance due to the complexity of the interactions between physical mechanisms at different spatio-temporal scales and the potential severity of the derived multiple socio-economic impacts. China stands out as a particularly interesting region, not only due to its complex climatic features, ranging from the semiarid northwestern Tibetan Plateau to the tropical monsoon southeastern climates, but also because of its wealth of proxy data. However, comprehensive assessments of proxy- and model-based information about palaeo-climatic variations in China are, to our knowledge, still lacking. In addition, existing studies depict a general lack of agreement between reconstructions and model simulations with respect to the amplitude and/or occurrence of warmer/colder and wetter/drier periods during the last millennium and the magnitude of the 20th century warming trend. Furthermore, these works are mainly focused on eastern China regions that show a denser proxy data coverage. We investigate how last millennium palaeo-runs compare to independent evidences from an unusual large number of proxy reconstructions over the study area by employing state-of-the-art palaeo-simulations with multi-member ensembles from the CMIP5/PMIP3 project. This shapes an ideal frame for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated to internal and intermodel model variability. Preliminary results indicate that despite the strong regional and seasonal dependencies, temperature reconstructions in China evidence coherent variations among all regions at centennial scale, especially during the last 500 years. The spatial consistency of low frequency temperature changes is an interesting aspect and of relevance for the assessment of forced climatic responses in China. The comparison between reconstructions and simulations from climate models show that, apart from the 20th century warming trend, the variance of the reconstructed mean China temperature lies in the envelope (uncertainty range) spanned by the temperature simulations. The uncertainty arises from the internal (multi-member ensembles) and the inter-model variability. Centennial variations tend to be broadly synchronous in the reconstructions and the simulations. However, the simulations show a delay of the warm period 1000-1300 AD. This warm medieval period both in the simulations and the reconstructions is followed by cooling till 1800 AD. Based on the simulations, the recent warming is not unprecedented and is comparable to the medieval warming. Further steps of this study will address the individual contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings on climate variability and change during the last millennium in China. We will make use of of models that provide runs including single forcings (fingerprints) for the attribution of climate variations from decadal to multi-centennial time scales. With this aim, we will implement statistical techniques for the detection of optimal signal-to-noise-ratio between external forcings and internal variability of reconstructed temperatures and precipitation. To apply these approaches the uncertainties associated with both reconstructions and simulations will be estimated. The latter will shed some light into the mechanisms behind current climate evolution and will help to constrain uncertainties in the sensitivity of model simulations to increasing CO2 scenarios of future climate change. This work will also contribute to the overall aims of the PAGES 2k initiative in Asia (http://www.pages.unibe.ch/workinggroups/2k-network)

Monitoring environmental impact in the Upper Sonoran Lifestyle: a new tool for rapid ecological assessment.

PubMed

Allen, Casey D

2009-02-01

Characterized by expensive housing, high socioeconomic status, and topographic relief, Upper Sonoran Lifestyle communities are found primarily along the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) in the Phoenix, Arizona metro area. Communities like these sprawl into the wildlands in the United States Southwest, creating a distinct urban fringe. This article, through locational comparison, introduces and evaluates a new field assessment tool for monitoring anthropogenic impact on soil-vegetation interactions along the well-maintained multi-use recreational trails in Upper Sonoran Lifestyle region. Comparing data from randomly selected transects along other multi-use trails with data from a control site revealed three key indicators of anthropogenic disturbances on soil-vegetation interactions: soil disturbance, vegetation disturbance, and vegetation density. Soil and vegetation disturbance displayed an average distance decay exponent factor of -0.60, while vegetation density displayed a reverse decay average of 0.60. Other important indicators of disturbance included vegetation type, biological soil crusts, and soil bulk density. The predictive ability of this new field tool enhances its applicability, offering a powerful rapid ecological assessment method for monitoring long-term anthropogenic impact in the Upper Sonoran Lifestyle, and other sprawling cities along the WUI.

Internal Climatic Influences From Secular To Multi-decadal Scales: Comparison Of NAO Reconstructions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolle, M.; Debret, M.; Massei, N.; de Vernal, A.

2017-12-01

In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major dominant mode of variability in winter atmospheric circulation, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks in the North Atlantic sector. To understand the role of this internal climatic oscillations on the past climate variability, several proxy-based reconstructions of the NAO were published during the last decades. Two of them are available during the past 1,200 years: a first NAO reconstruction published by Trouet et al. (2009) and a second proposed by Ortega et al. (2015). The major discrepancy between the two reconstructions concerns the transition period between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age. The first NAO reconstruction shows persistent positive phases during the MCA (AD 1000-1300) but this dominant trend is not highlighted in the reconstruction proposed by Ortega et al. (2015), asking the question of the influence of predictors used to reconstruct the NAO signal during the last millennia. In these study, we compare the two NAO reconstructions in order to determine the effect of bi-proxy or multi-proxy approach on the signal reconstructed. Using statistical and wavelet analysis methods, we conclude that the number of predictors used do not have impact on the signal reconstruct. The two reconstructions signals are characterized by similar variabilities expressed from multi-decadal to multi-secular scales. The major trend difference seems to be link to the type of the predictor and particularly the use of Greenland ice cores in the reconstruction proposed in 2015.

A Multi-Proxy Investigation into the Biomineralization Pathways of Benthic Invertebrate Taxa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeCorte, I. A.; Liu, Y. W.; Doss, W. C.; Ries, J. B.; Eagle, R.

2016-12-01

Ocean acidification is the result of surface ocean absorption of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and endangers many marine organisms. Decreases in pH and a coupled reduction in CaCO3 saturation state have been shown to disrupt the process of biomineralization within many species of marine calcifiers. Recent studies, however, demonstrate that calcifying organisms respond in diverse ways to changes in pH and CaCO3 saturation state. We examine element ratios (including Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, Li/Ca, and B/Ca) and boron isotope ratios (δ11B) in 7 macro-invertebrate species (blue crab, shrimp, coralline red algae, pencil urchin, purple urchin, temperate coral, and serpulid worm) and compare results to net calcification rates and experimental seawater carbonate system parameters. Correlations between seawater carbonate chemistry and the elemental compositions of biogenic calcite and aragonite vary widely and are highly taxon-specific, ranging from strongly correlated to no significant response—a finding that is consistent with mounting evidence that many marine calcifying organisms regulate the chemistry of the fluid at their site of calcification. A Rayleigh framework is used to interpret the elemental data. We then analyze δ11B of the same samples as a proxy for pH at their site of calcification. Preliminary results suggest that coralline red algae, shrimp, urchin, serpulid worm and temperate coral taxa elevate pH at the site of calcification relative to the organism's ambient seawater. We plan to utilize a multi-proxy approach to examine the biomineralization pathways that influence elemental and boron isotope fractionation during calcification and precipitation of biogenic aragonite and calcite. A better understanding of these biomineralization pathways will help us to predict the responses of benthic invertebrate taxa to ocean acidification, as well as provide insights into drivers of so-called vital effects on elemental and stable boron isotope fractionation within biogenic carbonates—thereby assessing the fidelity of these proxies for reconstructing paleo-environmental change within a diverse range of marine calcifiers.

Coral Records of 20th Century Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity: Signatures of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.

2011-12-01

Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century. However, the most prominent feature of the new coral records is an unprecedented freshening trend since the mid-20th century, in line with global climate models (GCMs) projections of enhanced hydrological patterns (wet areas are getting wetter and vice versa) under greenhouse forcing. Taken together, the coral records provide key constraints on tropical Pacific climate trends that may improve regional climate projections in areas affected by tropical Pacific climate variability.
Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity Proxy Records

Inferring biogeochemistry past: a millennial-scale multimodel assimilation of multiple paleoecological proxies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietze, M.; Raiho, A.; Fer, I.; Dawson, A.; Heilman, K.; Hooten, M.; McLachlan, J. S.; Moore, D. J.; Paciorek, C. J.; Pederson, N.; Rollinson, C.; Tipton, J.

2017-12-01

The pre-industrial period serves as an essential baseline against which we judge anthropogenic impacts on the earth's systems. However, direct measurements of key biogeochemical processes, such as carbon, water, and nutrient cycling, are absent for this period and there is no direct way to link paleoecological proxies, such as pollen and tree rings, to these processes. Process-based terrestrial ecosystem models provide a way to make inferences about the past, but have large uncertainties and by themselves often fail to capture much of the observed variability. Here we investigate the ability to improve inferences about pre-industrial biogeochemical cycles through the formal assimilation of proxy data into multiple process-based models. A Tobit ensemble filter with explicit estimation of process error was run at five sites across the eastern US for three models (LINKAGES, ED2, LPJ-GUESS). In addition to process error, the ensemble accounted for parameter uncertainty, estimated through the assimilation of the TRY and BETY trait databases, and driver uncertainty, accommodated by probabilistically downscaling and debiasing CMIP5 GCM output then filtering based on paleoclimate reconstructions. The assimilation was informed by four PalEON data products, each of which includes an explicit Bayesian error estimate: (1) STEPPS forest composition estimated from fossil pollen; (2) REFAB aboveground biomass (AGB) estimated from fossil pollen; (3) tree ring AGB and woody net primary productivity (wNPP); and (4) public land survey composition, stem density, and AGB. By comparing ensemble runs with and without data assimilation we are able to assess the information contribution of the proxy data to constraining biogeochemical fluxes, which is driven by the combination of model uncertainty, data uncertainty, and the strength of correlation between observed and unobserved quantities in the model ensemble. To our knowledge this is the first attempt at multi-model data assimilation with terrestrial ecosystem models. Results from the data-model assimilation allow us to assess the consistency across models in post-assimilation inferences about indirectly inferred quantities, such as GPP, soil carbon, and the water budget.

Vertebrate records in polar sediments: Biological responses to past climate change and human activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, L. G.; Emslie, S. D.; Huang, T.; Blais, J. M.; Xie, Z. Q.; Liu, X. D.; Yin, X. B.; Wang, Y. H.; Huang, W.; Hodgson, D. A.; Smol, J. P.

2013-11-01

Biological responses to climate and environmental changes in remote polar regions are of increasing interest in global change research. Terrestrial and marine polar ecosystems have suffered from impacts of both rapid climate change and intense human activities, and large fluctuations in the population sizes of seabirds, seals, and Antarctic krill have been observed in the past decades. To understand the mechanisms driving these regime shifts in polar ecosystems, it is important to first distinguish the influences of natural forcing from anthropogenic activities. Therefore, investigations of past changes of polar ecosystems prior to human contact are relevant for placing recent human-induced changes within a long-term historical context. Here we focus our review on the fossil, sub-fossil, archaeological, and biogeochemical remains of marine vertebrates in polar sediments. These remains include well-preserved tissues such as bones, hairs and feathers, and biogeochemical markers and other proxy indicators, including deposits of guano and excrement, which can accumulate in lake and terrestrial sediments over thousands of years. Analyses of these remains have provided insight into both natural and anthropogenic impacts on marine vertebrates over millennia and have helped identify the causal agents for these impacts. Furthermore, land-based seabirds and marine mammals have been shown to play an important role as bio-vectors in polar environments as they transport significant amounts of nutrients and anthropogenic contaminants between ocean and terrestrial ecosystems.

Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Ricciuto, Daniel M.

Here, we examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO 2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded a decreasing trend in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplifiedmore » global ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.« less

Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

DOE PAGES

Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; ...

2015-09-08

Here, we examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO 2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded a decreasing trend in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplifiedmore » global ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.« less

Stability of ENSO and Its Tropical Pacific Teleconnections over the Last Millennium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Sophie; Legrande, A. N.

2015-01-01

Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed through time, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the stationarity of ENSO teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We show that modelled ENSO characteristics vary on decadal- to centennial-scales, resulting from internal variability and external forcings, such as tropical volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the relationship between ENSO conditions and local climates across the Pacific basin varies throughout the Last Millennium. Results show the stability of teleconnections is regionally dependent and proxies may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO likely require evidence to be synthesised over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those pertaining to proxy-relevant local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the Central Pacific

A new global anthropogenic heat estimation based on high-resolution nighttime light data

PubMed Central

Yang, Wangming; Luan, Yibo; Liu, Xiaolei; Yu, Xiaoyong; Miao, Lijuan; Cui, Xuefeng

2017-01-01

Consumption of fossil fuel resources leads to global warming and climate change. Apart from the negative impact of greenhouse gases on the climate, the increasing emission of anthropogenic heat from energy consumption also brings significant impacts on urban ecosystems and the surface energy balance. The objective of this work is to develop a new method of estimating the global anthropogenic heat budget and validate it on the global scale with a high precision and resolution dataset. A statistical algorithm was applied to estimate the annual mean anthropogenic heat (AH-DMSP) from 1992 to 2010 at 1×1 km2 spatial resolution for the entire planet. AH-DMSP was validated for both provincial and city scales, and results indicate that our dataset performs well at both scales. Compared with other global anthropogenic heat datasets, the AH-DMSP has a higher precision and finer spatial distribution. Although there are some limitations, the AH-DMSP could provide reliable, multi-scale anthropogenic heat information, which could be used for further research on regional or global climate change and urban ecosystems. PMID:28829436

Culturing Fundamentals Used To Design And Execute A Long-Term Multi-stressor Experiment To Assess Impact Of Deoxygenation, Ocean Acidification, And Warming On Benthic Foraminiferal Community Composition, Growth, And Carbonate Yield: Design And Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, J. M.; Wit, J. C.

2015-12-01

The geochemistry recorded in carbonate foraminiferal tests (shells) is often used as proxy for past oceanographic events and environments. By understanding past oceanic and climatic conditions, we can better predict future climate scenarios, a relevant ability in these times of global change. The fact that foraminifera are biological entities can be pivotal for understanding their geochemical records. Thus, growing foraminifera under known physicochemical conditions and analyzing the geochemistry of their cultured carbonate can yield insightful perspectives for proxy refinement and development. Because parameters often co-vary in nature, proper proxy calibration can only be done with materials grown in strictly controlled and known environments. This presentation will review the various crucial aspects of foraminiferal maintenance and culturing, especially from the perspective of proxy development. These fundamentals were used to design a long-term multi-stressor experiment with oxygen, pCO2 (pH), and temperature as variables to test the single, double or triple threats of deoxygenation, ocean acidification, and oceanic warming. Results on assemblage composition, survivorship and growth of a continental shelf benthic foraminiferal community will be presented. Although one agglutinated morphospecies grew in each of the five treatments, growth of individual calcareous species was more restricted. Initial results indicate that pCO2 was not the factor that impacted communities most. Supported in part by NSF OCE-1219948.

Identifying the driving forces of urban expansion and its environmental impact in Jakarta-Bandung mega urban region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pravitasari, A. E.; Rustiadi, E.; Mulya, S. P.; Setiawan, Y.; Fuadina, L. N.; Murtadho, A.

2018-05-01

The socio-economic development in Jakarta-Bandung Mega Urban Region (JBMUR) caused the increasing of urban expansion and led to a variety of environmental damage such as uncontrolled land use conversion and raising anthropogenic disaster. The objectives of this study are: (1) to identify the driving forces of urban expansion that occurs on JBMUR and (2) to analyze the environmental quality decline on JBMUR by producing time series spatial distribution map and spatial autocorrelation of floods and landslide as the proxy of anthropogenic disaster. The driving forces of urban expansion in this study were identified by employing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model using 6 (six) independent variables, namely: population density, percentage of agricultural land, distance to the center of capital city/municipality, percentage of household who works in agricultural sector, distance to the provincial road, and distance to the local road. The GWR results showed that local demographic, social and economic factors including distance to the road spatially affect urban expansion in JBMUR. The time series spatial distribution map of floods and landslide event showed the spatial cluster of anthropogenic disaster in some areas. Through Local Moran Index, we found that environmental damage in one location has a significant impact on the condition of its surrounding area.

Identifying species at extinction risk using global models of anthropogenic impact.

PubMed

Peters, Howard; O'Leary, Bethan C; Hawkins, Julie P; Roberts, Callum M

2015-02-01

The International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Endangered Species employs a robust, standardized approach to assess extinction threat focussed on taxa approaching an end-point in population decline. Used alone, we argue this enforces a reactive approach to conservation. Species not assessed as threatened but which occur predominantly in areas with high levels of anthropogenic impact may require proactive conservation management to prevent loss. We matched distribution and bathymetric range data from the global Red List assessment of 632 species of marine cone snails with human impacts and projected ocean thermal stress and aragonite saturation (a proxy for ocean acidification). Our results show 67 species categorized as 'Least Concern' have 70% or more of their occupancy in places subject to high and very high levels of human impact with 18 highly restricted species (range <100 km(2)) living exclusively in such places. Using a range-rarity scoring method we identified where clusters of endemic species are subject to all three stressors: high human impact, declining aragonite saturation levels and elevated thermal stress. Our approach reinforces Red List threatened status, highlights candidate species for reassessment, contributes important evidential data to minimize data deficiency and identifies regions and species for proactive conservation. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Quantum Multi-proxy Blind Signature Scheme Based on Genuine Four-Qubit Entangled State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Juan-Hong; Zhang, Jian-Zhong; Li, Yan-Ping

2016-02-01

In this paper, we propose a multi-proxy blind signature scheme based on controlled teleportation. Genuine four-qubit entangled state functions as quantum channel. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. The security analysis shows the scheme satisfies the security features of multi-proxy signature, unforgeability, undeniability, blindness and unconditional security.

Holocene climate dynamics in the Eastern Italian Alps: a multi-proxy study from ice and peat bogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poto, Luisa; Gabrieli, Jacopo; Segnana, Michela; Festi, Daniela; Oeggl, Klaus; Barbante, Carlo

2014-05-01

The Eastern Italian Alps are located near one of the areas in the world with some of the longest records of extreme environmental use by human activity. In this area, paleo-climate studies are hampered by the lack of high-resolution multi-proxy records with adequate chronological control. With this project, we propose to reconstruct Holocene climatic and environmental variations in the Eastern Italian Alps using terrestrial and glaciological archives. We aim to study the characteristics of different climate stages in this sector of the Alps using an ice core drilled on the top of the Ortles glacier (46°30' N, 10°32 E, 3850 m a.s.l.) and ombrotrophic peat bog records from the Dolomites (Danta di Cadore, 46°34' N, 12°33 E, 1400 m a.s.l. and Coltrondo 46°39'28.37''N 12°26'59.17''E, 1800 m a.s.l., Belluno province). The study of global climatic change require a holistic and multi-proxy approach to better understand several complex and often non-linear relationships. In the Italian Alps our study on peat cores represents the first attempt where a multi-proxy approach is applied, and here we report our first results. A 7.0 m peat sequence was extracted in Danta di Cadore. The depth-age scale, based upon independent 14C and 210Pb dates and modeled with the Clam method (Blaauw, 2010), demonstrates that the archive covers more than 13,200 years (cal BP). We determined physical proprieties, Ca and Ti trends, pore water pH, conductivity, and Ca/Mg ratios to identify changes in trophic conditions. The results confirm that the uppermost 400 cm are composed of ombrotrophic peat representing the longest Eastern Alpine ombrotrophic record yet obtained, covering the last 7,000 years. The oldest radiocarbon age (13,200 years cal BP) provides evidence that, during the Bölling-Alleröd interstadial, the upper part of the Piave Glacier was ice-free up to 1400 m a.s.l.. At that time pollen assemblages show that a conifer forest characterized the local vegetation. This forest was then affected by the climatic cooling of the Younger Dryas, which caused an opening of the vegetation. The climatic amelioration occurring at the onset of the Holocene favored the local expansion of warmth-demanding species. X-ray Fluorescence Core Scanner (XRF-CS) analysis was applied for the first time on Eastern Alpine peat sequences. XRF-CS signals were calibrated with ICP-MS, showing very high correlation and demonstrating that the XRF-CS technique provides reliable quantitative data. Results provide information about geochemical processes occurring in the bog. The impact of mining activity was also evaluated. Concentration levels and enrichment factors (EFs) of several trace elements such as Pb, Ag and Cd correspond to the historical data about mining activities in the Cadore region. Lead isotopes ratios were measured to identify natural and anthropogenic sources of Pb emissions. Results show an increase of Pb deriving from fuel combustion over the last decades that gradually overlie the impacts of mining activity. The decreasing 206Pb/207Pb trend reached its minimum value of 1.153 in the 1990s and then increased again. In these years, Italy started to follow EU rules to limit global pollutants in the atmosphere, and finally banned leaded fuels in 2002. Both 206Pb/207Pb ratio and Pb fluxes show a particular event between 1975 and 1980: this behavior is characteristic of the ILE (Isotopic Lead Experiment), a large-scale isotopic tracer experiment which was carried out in the Piedmont region (N-W Italy). This multi-proxy approach that integrates, using new chronological insights, chemical physical and biological features of the core, improves our understanding of Eastern Alpine Holocene climate, helping to delineate biotic and abiotic responses to climate dynamics during the present interglacial. Blaauw, M. 2010. Methods and code for 'classical' age modeling of radiocarbon sequences. Quarternary Geochronology, 5: 512-518.

How accurately can the instantaneous aerosol effect on cloud albedo be constrained?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryspeerdt, E.; Quaas, J.; Ferrachat, S.; Gettelman, A.; Ghan, S. J.; Lohmann, U.; Neubauer, D.; Morrison, H.; Partridge, D.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Zhang, K.

2017-12-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions are the most uncertain component of the anthropogenic radiative forcing, with a significant fraction of this uncertainty coming from uncertainty in the radiative forcing due to instantaneous changes in cloud albedo (the RFaci). Aerosols can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), so previous studies have used the sensitivity of CDNC to aerosol properties as a method of estimating the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that this sensitivity is unsuitable as a constraint on the RFaci, as it differs in the present day and pre-industrial atmosphere. This would place significant limits on our ability to constrain the RFaci from satellite observations. In this study, a selection of global aerosol-climate models are used to investigate the suitability of various aerosol proxies and methods for calculating the RFaci from present day data. A linear-regression based sensitivity of CDNC to aerosol perturbations can lead to large errors in the diagnosed RFaci, as can the use of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) as an aerosol proxy. However, we show that if suitable choices of aerosol proxy are made and the anthropogenic aerosol contribution is known, it is possible to diagnose the anthropogenic change in CDNC, and so the RFaci, using present day aerosol-cloud relationships.

Leaf wax records of late Holocene hydrologic changes on Abaco Island, Northern Bahamas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamalavage, A.; Feakins, S. J.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Louchouarn, P.; Fall, P. L.; Albury, N. A.; Donnelly, J. P.

2016-12-01

Previous pollen-based evidence from Abaco Island (Little Bahama Bank, Northern Bahamas) indicates that the terrestrial forest changed in dominance over the last 1500 years from palms to pines, and that this change is potentially driven by climate and/or anthropogenic factors. Geochemical markers (δ13Corg, δ15Norg,, C/N, and lignin phenols) measured from bulk sedimentary matter that has accumulated in Blackwood Sinkhole on Abaco Island also support the pollen-based evidence that vegetation has not been constant throughout the late Holocene (last 3000 years). More specifically, these geochemical markers document three intervals where sedimentary deposition was dominated by a different source of organic matter. These changes are likely driven by the combination of the ecological response to shoreline migration from Holocene sea-level rise, and a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at 1000 Cal yrs BP. However, the specific impact of a southward ITCZ displacement at 1000 Cal yrs BP on Abaco rainfall variability remains uncertain (e.g., quantity, seasonality). This research will explore hydrologic variability associated with regional vegetation changes by measuring precipitation isotopic composition based upon plant leaf wax n-alkanoic acid and n-alkane biomarkers. We find C29 and C31 n-alkanes and C24, C26, C28, and C30 n-alkanoic acids record the same hydrogen isotopic values within uncertainties indicating a uniform terrestrial vegetation source. We find a negative shift (-50‰) towards present in our initial analyses; the results of ongoing work will be presented at the meeting. This multi-proxy approach will allow us to resolve the nature of the leaf wax biomarker hydrogen isotope evidence for past precipitation, including testing for the impacts of vegetation on the hydrological proxy, and testing predictions of a shift in precipitation on Abaco Island over the late Holocene coincident with a southward displacement of the ITCZ.

Potential for cumulative effects of human stressors on fish, sea birds and marine mammals in Arctic waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, Jesper H.; Berzaghi, Fabio; Christensen, Tom; Geertz-Hansen, Ole; Mosbech, Anders; Stock, Andy; Zinglersen, Karl B.; Wisz, Mary S.

2017-01-01

We estimate the potential for cumulative impacts from multiple anthropogenic stressors on fish, sea birds, and marine mammals in the western, southern and south-eastern parts of marine waters around Greenland. The analysis is based on a comprehensive data set representing five human activities including two proxies for climate change, as well as 25 key animal species including commercially important fish and top predators such as sea birds and marine mammals. Anthropogenic stressors are concentrated in two areas: the offshore waters south of Greenland, and especially the western coast from the Qeqertarsuaq (Disko Island) area to the southern tip of Greenland. The latter is also an area of high importance for many key species, thus the potential for cumulative impacts is high along Greenland's west coast. We conclude that this area should be under high scientific scrutiny and conservation attention. Our study is a first attempt and a stepping-stone towards more detailed and accurate estimates of the effects of multiple human stressors on Arctic marine ecosystems.

Reconstructing pre-instrumental streamflow in Eastern Australia using a water balance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tozer, C. R.; Kiem, A. S.; Vance, T. R.; Roberts, J. L.; Curran, M. A. J.; Moy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Streamflow reconstructions based on paleoclimate proxies provide much longer records than the short instrumental period records on which water resource management plans are currently based. In Australia there is a lack of in-situ high resolution paleoclimate proxy records, but remote proxies with teleconnections to Australian climate have utility in producing streamflow reconstructions. Here we investigate, via a case study for a catchment in eastern Australia, the novel use of an Antarctic ice-core based rainfall reconstruction within a Budyko-framework to reconstruct ∼1000 years of annual streamflow. The resulting streamflow reconstruction captures interannual to decadal variability in the instrumental streamflow, validating both the use of the ice core rainfall proxy record and the Budyko-framework method. In the preinstrumental era the streamflow reconstruction shows longer wet and dry epochs and periods of streamflow variability that are higher than observed in the instrumental era. Importantly, for both the instrumental record and preinstrumental reconstructions, the wet (dry) epochs in the rainfall record are shorter (longer) in the streamflow record and this non-linearity must be considered when inferring hydroclimatic risk or historical water availability directly from rainfall proxy records alone. These insights provide a better understanding of present infrastructure vulnerability in the context of past climate variability for eastern Australia. The streamflow reconstruction presented here also provides a better understanding of the range of hydroclimatic variability possible, and therefore represents a more realistic baseline on which to quantify the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on water security.

Impacts of Interannual Variability in Biogenic VOC Emissions near Transitional Ozone Production Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geddes, J.

2017-12-01

Due to successful NOx emission controls, summertime ozone production chemistry in urban areas across North America is transitioning from VOC-limited to increasingly NOx-limited. In some regions where ozone production sensitivity is in transition, interannual variability in surrounding biogenic VOC emissions could drive fluctuations in the prevailing chemical regime and modify the impact of anthropogenic emission changes. I use satellite observations of HCHO and NO2 column density, along with a long-term simulation of atmospheric chemistry, to investigate the impact of interannual variability in biogenic isoprene sources near large metro areas. Peak emissions of isoprene in the model can vary by up to 20-60% in any given year compared to the long term mean, and this variability drives the majority of the variability in simulated local HCHO:NO2 ratios (a common proxy for ozone production sensitivity). The satellite observations confirm increasingly NOx-limited chemical regimes with large interannual variability. In several instances, the model and satellite observations suggest that variability in biogenic isoprene emissions could shift summertime ozone production from generally VOC- to generally NOx- sensitive (or vice versa). This would have implications for predicting the air quality impacts of anthropogenic emission changes in any given year, and suggests that drivers of biogenic emissions need to be well understood.

Mid-late Holocene climate, demography, and cultural dynamics in Iberia: A multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillios, Katina T.; Blanco-González, Antonio; Drake, Brandon Lee; López-Sáez, José Antonio

2016-03-01

Despite increasing interest in the relationship between culture transformation and abrupt climate change, their complexities are poorly understood. The local impact of global environmental fluctuations depends on multiple factors, and their effects on societal collapse are often assumed rather than demonstrated. One of the major changes in west European later prehistory was the Copper to Bronze Age transition, contemporaneous with the 4.2 ky cal. BP event. This article offers a multi-dimensional insight into this historical process in the Iberian Peninsula from a multi-proxy and comparative perspective. Three study areas, representative of diverse ecological settings and historical trajectories, are compared. Using radiocarbon dates, 13C discrimination (Δ13C) values on C3 plants, and high-resolution palynological records as palaeoclimatic and palaeodemographic proxies, this study tracks the uneven signals of Holocene climate. The wettest Northwest region features the most stable trend lines, whereas the Southwest exhibits an abrupt decrease in its demographic signals c. 4500 cal. BP, which is then followed by a subsequent rise in the neighbouring Southeast. These lines of evidence suggest the possibility, never previously noted, of demic migration from the Southwest to the Southeast in the Early Bronze Age as a contributing factor to the cultural dynamics of southern Iberia.

Bacterial responses to environmental change on the Tibetan Plateau over the past half century.

PubMed

Liu, Yongqin; Priscu, John C; Yao, Tandong; Vick-Majors, Trista J; Xu, Baiqing; Jiao, Nianzhi; Santibáñez, Pamela; Huang, Sijun; Wang, Ninglian; Greenwood, Mark; Michaud, Alexander B; Kang, Shichang; Wang, Jianjun; Gao, Qun; Yang, Yunfeng

2016-06-01

Climate change and anthropogenic factors can alter biodiversity and can lead to changes in community structure and function. Despite the potential impacts, no long-term records of climatic influences on microbial communities exist. The Tibetan Plateau is a highly sensitive region that is currently undergoing significant alteration resulting from both climate change and increased human activity. Ice cores from glaciers in this region serve as unique natural archives of bacterial abundance and community composition, and contain concomitant records of climate and environmental change. We report high-resolution profiles of bacterial density and community composition over the past half century in ice cores from three glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau. Statistical analysis showed that the bacterial community composition in the three ice cores converged starting in the 1990s. Changes in bacterial community composition were related to changing precipitation, increasing air temperature and anthropogenic activities in the vicinity of the plateau. Collectively, our ice core data on bacteria in concert with environmental and anthropogenic proxies indicate that the convergence of bacterial communities deposited on glaciers across a wide geographical area and situated in diverse habitat types was likely induced by climatic and anthropogenic drivers. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Coupling of oceanic carbon and nitrogen: A window to spatially resolved quantitative reconstruction of nitrate inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glock, N.; Liebetrau, V.; Gorb, S.; Wallmann, K. J. G.; Erdem, Z.; Schönfeld, J.; Eisenhauer, A.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic impact has led to a severe acceleration of the global nitrogen cycle. Every second nitrogen atom in the biosphere may now originate from anthropogenic sources such as chemical fertilizers and the burning of fossil fuels. A quantitative reconstruction of past reactive nitrogen inventories is invaluable to facilitate projections for future scenarios and calibrations for such paleoproxies should be done as long the natural signature is still visible. Here we present a first quantitative reconstruction of nitrate concentrations in intermediate water depths of the Peruvian oxygen minimum zone over the last deglaciation using the pore density in the benthic foraminiferal species Bolivina spissa. A comparison of the nitrate reconstruction to the stable carbon isotope (δ13C) record reveals a strong coupling between the carbon and nitrogen cycles. The linear correlation between δ13C and nitrate availability remained stable over the last 22,000 years, facilitating the use of δ13C records as a quantitative nitrate proxy. The combination of the pore density record with δ13C records shows an elevated oceanic nitrate inventory during the Last Glacial Maximum as compared to the Holocene. Our novel proxy approach is consistent with the results of previous δ15N-based biogeochemical modeling studies, and thus provides sound estimates of the nitrate inventory in the glacial and deglacial ocean.

Holocene Changes in Land Cover and Greenhouse-gas Concentrations: Rethinking Natural vs Anthropogenic Causation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, C.

2008-12-01

The Holocene has witnessed a switch from a nature-dominated to a human-dominated Earth system. Although globally-significant human impacts (wildfire, megafaunal extinctions) occurred during the late Pleistocene, it was the advent of agriculture that led to the progressive transformation of land cover, and which distinguishes the Holocene from previous interglacial periods. A wide array of data provide clear evidence of local-to-regional human disturbance from ~5 ka BP, in some cases earlier. There is more uncertainty about when the anthropogenic "footprint" became detectable at a global scale, and there has consequently been debate about how much of the pre-industrial increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations is attributable to human causation, linked to processes such as deforestation (CO2) and wet rice cultivation (CH4). Although there has been recent progress in developing quantitative methods for translating pollen data into palaeo-land cover, such as the REVEALS model of Sugita (Holocene 2007) coupled to GIS, this has yet to be widely applied to existing data bases, and most pollen-based land-use reconstructions remain qualitative or semi-quantitative. Lake trophic status, sediment flux / soil erosion, and microcharcoal records of biomass burning provide alternative proxies that integrate regional-scale landscape disturbance. These proxy data along with documentary sources imply that globally-significant changes in land cover occurred prior to ~250 BP which must have altered atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by this time. The polarised debate for and against early anthropogenic impact on global carbon cycling mirrors our industrial-era division between nature and society, both conceptually (e.g. Cartesian dualism) and on the ground (e.g. demarcating land between monoculture agriculture and wilderness). However, for the period before ~1750 AD, this likely represents a false dichotomy, because pre-industrial societies more often formed part of the natural world, while at the same time modifying and transforming it. Attempts to partition carbon emissions between natural and anthropogenic sources during the Holocene may therefore be misplaced. Many landscapes, such as savannas, are the result of synergistic - and in some cases contingent - relationships between people, other animals, plants and other components of nature. The issue is thus not whether early humans altered carbon cycling (they did), but rather at what point it became detectable at a global scale, and what form it took.

Differential adult survival at close seabird colonies: The importance of spatial foraging segregation and bycatch risk during the breeding season.

PubMed

Genovart, Meritxell; Bécares, Juan; Igual, José-Manuel; Martínez-Abraín, Alejandro; Escandell, Raul; Sánchez, Antonio; Rodríguez, Beneharo; Arcos, José M; Oro, Daniel

2018-03-01

Marine megafauna, including seabirds, are critically affected by fisheries bycatch. However, bycatch risk may differ on temporal and spatial scales due to the uneven distribution and effort of fleets operating different fishing gear, and to focal species distribution and foraging behavior. Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea is a long-lived seabird that experiences high bycatch rates in longline fisheries and strong population-level impacts due to this type of anthropogenic mortality. Analyzing a long-term dataset on individual monitoring, we compared adult survival (by means of multi-event capture-recapture models) among three close predator-free Mediterranean colonies of the species. Unexpectedly for a long-lived organism, adult survival varied among colonies. We explored potential causes of this differential survival by (1) measuring egg volume as a proxy of food availability and parental condition; (2) building a specific longline bycatch risk map for the species; and (3) assessing the distribution patterns of breeding birds from the three study colonies via GPS tracking. Egg volume was very similar between colonies over time, suggesting that environmental variability related to habitat foraging suitability was not the main cause of differential survival. On the other hand, differences in foraging movements among individuals from the three colonies expose them to differential mortality risk, which likely influenced the observed differences in adult survival. The overlap of information obtained by the generation of specific bycatch risk maps, the quantification of population demographic parameters, and the foraging spatial analysis should inform managers about differential sensitivity to the anthropogenic impact at mesoscale level and guide decisions depending on the spatial configuration of local populations. The approach would apply and should be considered in any species where foraging distribution is colony-specific and mortality risk varies spatially. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Register of the last 1000 years of environmental, climatic and anthropogenic change in Isla Grande de Chiloé, inferred through a multi-proxy approach: Lake Pastahué, Chile-South Center (42°S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troncoso, Jose; Alvarez, Denisse; Díaz, Gustavo; Fierro, Pablo; Araneda, Alberto; Torrejón, Fernando; Rondanelli, Mauricio; Fagel, Nathalie; Urrutia, Roberto

2017-04-01

Knowledge of the past environmental and climatic conditions of the lake ecosystems of the Isla Grande de Chiloé and its relationship with the anthropic effect, on a high temporal resolution scale, is scarcely known. Specifically, multi-proxy studies provide a better understanding of the context in which changes occurred in the past. This insular region is particularly interesting because environmental conditions (pre and post-Hispanic) and knowledge about the impacts generated in the ecosystems during the Spanish colonization process have so far been little studied, compared to the rest of Chile continental. This research is a new contribution to the scarce information existing for the last millennium of the Isla Grande de Chiloé. The objective of this work was to reconstruct the environmental and climatic history of the last 1000 years, from the Lake Pastahué, in the Isla Grande de Chiloé through a multi-proxy analysis and compare them with other records for the region. The core sediment was sub-sampled to perform sedimentological analysis (organic matter, carbonates, magnetic susceptibility and granulometry) and biological indicators (pollen, chironomids). The age model was constructed from the activity of 210Pb,137Cs and 14C. The pollen results reveal a composition of nordpatagónico forest represented by Nothofagus, Weinmannia, Drimys, Tepualia, Myrtaceae, Poaceae and Pteridophyta, while the anthropic effect for the last cm of the profile is represented by Rumex and Pinus. The results show a significant increase in magnetic susceptibility since the middle of the 20th century, suggesting an increase in allochthonous material to the lake. The sedimentological parameters and the chironomid assembly show similar variations along the profile, which also shows changes in the trophic state of the lake. The changes recorded in lake Pastahue are directly related to past climatic phenomena occurring in the last millennium, such as the medieval climatic anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) manifested in increases and decreases in temperatures, these antecedents are in agreement with others records for the region. The variations observed for the last cm of the profile could be a result of the decrease of the forests due to the intensification of the agricultural and cattle activities generated by the chilotes from century XX to the present time. The data provided by this research are still insufficient to establish an extralocal climatic influence of MCA and LIA events in Chiloé; although certain trends are observed. Research Funded by the projects: CONICYT- Scholarship PhD National 2014, FONDECYT N°1120807 and CRHIAM / CONICYT / FONDAP / 15130015.

Challenges in constraining anthropogenic aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing using present-day spatiotemporal variability.

PubMed

Ghan, Steven; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Shipeng; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Gettelman, Andrew; Griesfeller, Jan; Kipling, Zak; Lohmann, Ulrike; Morrison, Hugh; Neubauer, David; Partridge, Daniel G; Stier, Philip; Takemura, Toshihiko; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Kai

2016-05-24

A large number of processes are involved in the chain from emissions of aerosol precursor gases and primary particles to impacts on cloud radiative forcing. Those processes are manifest in a number of relationships that can be expressed as factors dlnX/dlnY driving aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing. These factors include the relationships between cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration and emissions, droplet number and CCN concentration, cloud fraction and droplet number, cloud optical depth and droplet number, and cloud radiative forcing and cloud optical depth. The relationship between cloud optical depth and droplet number can be further decomposed into the sum of two terms involving the relationship of droplet effective radius and cloud liquid water path with droplet number. These relationships can be constrained using observations of recent spatial and temporal variability of these quantities. However, we are most interested in the radiative forcing since the preindustrial era. Because few relevant measurements are available from that era, relationships from recent variability have been assumed to be applicable to the preindustrial to present-day change. Our analysis of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) model simulations suggests that estimates of relationships from recent variability are poor constraints on relationships from anthropogenic change for some terms, with even the sign of some relationships differing in many regions. Proxies connecting recent spatial/temporal variability to anthropogenic change, or sustained measurements in regions where emissions have changed, are needed to constrain estimates of anthropogenic aerosol impacts on cloud radiative forcing.

Challenges in constraining anthropogenic aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing using present-day spatiotemporal variability

PubMed Central

Ghan, Steven; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Shipeng; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Gettelman, Andrew; Griesfeller, Jan; Kipling, Zak; Lohmann, Ulrike; Morrison, Hugh; Neubauer, David; Partridge, Daniel G.; Stier, Philip; Takemura, Toshihiko; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Kai

2016-01-01

A large number of processes are involved in the chain from emissions of aerosol precursor gases and primary particles to impacts on cloud radiative forcing. Those processes are manifest in a number of relationships that can be expressed as factors dlnX/dlnY driving aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing. These factors include the relationships between cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration and emissions, droplet number and CCN concentration, cloud fraction and droplet number, cloud optical depth and droplet number, and cloud radiative forcing and cloud optical depth. The relationship between cloud optical depth and droplet number can be further decomposed into the sum of two terms involving the relationship of droplet effective radius and cloud liquid water path with droplet number. These relationships can be constrained using observations of recent spatial and temporal variability of these quantities. However, we are most interested in the radiative forcing since the preindustrial era. Because few relevant measurements are available from that era, relationships from recent variability have been assumed to be applicable to the preindustrial to present-day change. Our analysis of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) model simulations suggests that estimates of relationships from recent variability are poor constraints on relationships from anthropogenic change for some terms, with even the sign of some relationships differing in many regions. Proxies connecting recent spatial/temporal variability to anthropogenic change, or sustained measurements in regions where emissions have changed, are needed to constrain estimates of anthropogenic aerosol impacts on cloud radiative forcing. PMID:26921324

The Use of Proxy Caches for File Access in a Multi-Tier Grid Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brun, R.; Duellmann, D.; Ganis, G.; Hanushevsky, A.; Janyst, L.; Peters, A. J.; Rademakers, F.; Sindrilaru, E.

2011-12-01

The use of proxy caches has been extensively studied in the HEP environment for efficient access of database data and showed significant performance with only very moderate operational effort at higher grid tiers (T2, T3). In this contribution we propose to apply the same concept to the area of file access and analyse the possible performance gains, operational impact on site services and applicability to different HEP use cases. Base on a proof-of-concept studies with a modified XROOT proxy server we review the cache efficiency and overheads for access patterns of typical ROOT based analysis programs. We conclude with a discussion of the potential role of this new component at the different tiers of a distributed computing grid.

The Use of Proxy Caches for File Access in a Multi-Tier Grid Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brun, R.; Dullmann, D.; Ganis, G.

2012-04-19

The use of proxy caches has been extensively studied in the HEP environment for efficient access of database data and showed significant performance with only very moderate operational effort at higher grid tiers (T2, T3). In this contribution we propose to apply the same concept to the area of file access and analyze the possible performance gains, operational impact on site services and applicability to different HEP use cases. Base on a proof-of-concept studies with a modified XROOT proxy server we review the cache efficiency and overheads for access patterns of typical ROOT based analysis programs. We conclude with amore » discussion of the potential role of this new component at the different tiers of a distributed computing grid.« less

Multi-scale trends analysis of landscape stressors in an urbanizing coastal watershed

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic land based stressors within a watershed can deliver major impacts to downstream and adjacent coastal waterways affecting water quality and estuarine habitats. Our research focused on a subset of non-point sources of watershed stressors specifically, human population...

Do biofilm communities respond to the chemical signatures of fracking? A test involving streams in North-central Arkansas.

PubMed

Johnson, Wilson H; Douglas, Marlis R; Lewis, Jeffrey A; Stuecker, Tara N; Carbonero, Franck G; Austin, Bradley J; Evans-White, Michelle A; Entrekin, Sally A; Douglas, Michael E

2017-02-03

Unconventional natural gas (UNG) extraction (fracking) is ongoing in 29 North American shale basins (20 states), with ~6000 wells found within the Fayetteville shale (north-central Arkansas). If the chemical signature of fracking is detectable in streams, it can be employed to bookmark potential impacts. We evaluated benthic biofilm community composition as a proxy for stream chemistry so as to segregate anthropogenic signatures in eight Arkansas River catchments. In doing so, we tested the hypothesis that fracking characteristics in study streams are statistically distinguishable from those produced by agriculture or urbanization. Four tributary catchments had UNG-wells significantly more dense and near to our sampling sites and were grouped as 'potentially-impacted catchment zones' (PICZ). Four others were characterized by significantly larger forested area with greater slope and elevation but reduced pasture, and were classified as 'minimally-impacted' (MICZ). Overall, 46 bacterial phyla/141 classes were identified, with 24 phyla (52%) and 54 classes (38%) across all samples. PICZ-sites were ecologically more variable than MICZ-sites, with significantly greater nutrient levels (total nitrogen, total phosphorous), and elevated Cyanobacteria as bioindicators that tracked these conditions. PICZ-sites also exhibited elevated conductance (a correlate of increased ion concentration) and depressed salt-intolerant Spartobacteria, suggesting the presence of brine as a fracking effect. Biofilm communities at PICZ-sites were significantly less variable than those at MICZ-sites. Study streams differed by Group according to morphology, land use, and water chemistry but not in biofilm community structure. Those at PICZ-sites covaried according to anthropogenic impact, and were qualitatively similar to communities found at sites disturbed by fracking. The hypothesis that fracking signatures in study streams are distinguishable from those produced by other anthropogenic effects was statistically rejected. Instead, alterations in biofilm community composition, as induced by fracking, may be less specific than initially predicted, and thus more easily confounded by agriculture and urbanization effects (among others). Study streams must be carefully categorized with regard to the magnitude and extent of anthropogenic impacts. They must also be segregated with statistical confidence (as herein) before fracking impacts are monitored.

Understanding Biogeochemical Transformations Of Trace Elements In Multi Metal-Rich Geomaterials Under Stimulated Redox Conditions

EPA Science Inventory

Natural and anthropogenic influences on hydrological conditions can induce periodic or long-term reduced conditions in geologic materials. Such conditions can cause significant impacts on biogeochemical processes of trace elements in subsurface or near surface environments. The...

A Third-Party E-payment Protocol Based on Quantum Multi-proxy Blind Signature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Xu-Feng; Zhang, Jian-Zhong; Xie, Shu-Cui; Chen, Bu-Qing

2018-05-01

A third-party E-payment protocol is presented in this paper. It is based on quantum multi-proxy blind signature. Adopting the techniques of quantum key distribution, one-time pad and quantum multi-proxy blind signature, our third-party E-payment system could protect user's anonymity as the traditional E-payment systems do, and also have unconditional security which the classical E-payment systems can not provide. Furthermore, compared with the existing quantum E-payment systems, the proposed system could support the E-payment which using the third-party platforms.

Tree and timberline shifts in the northern Romanian Carpathians during the Holocene and the responses to environmental changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feurdean, Angelica; Gałka, Mariusz; Tanţău, Ioan; Geantă, Anca; Hutchinson, Simon M.; Hickler, Thomas

2016-02-01

High altitude environments are experiencing more rapid changes in temperature than the global average with the risk of losing essential ecosystem services in mountain environments. The Carpathians Mountains are regarded as hosting Europe's most pristine mountain ecosystems, yet the paucity of past environmental records limits our understanding of their sensitivity to the various drivers of change. A multi-proxy palaeoecological approach (plant macro-remains, pollen, charcoal) applied to three Holocene sediment sequences (between 1540 and 1810 m a.s.l.) in the Rodna Mountains documents past treeline and timberline shifts in response to climate change and human impact to anticipate the likely future responses. Our results indicate that forest reacted sensitively to past climate conditions. The timberline had exceeded an elevation of 1540 m a.s.l. by 10,200 cal. yr BP, when summers were warmer than today. The treeline remained below 1810 m a.s.l. at this time and reached its maximum elevation after 8500 cal. yr BP, when winter temperatures became milder. Cool summer conditions probably caused a lowering of the timberline and an extension of the treeline ecotone from 4900 cal. yr BP, a process accentuated by human impact from the Bronze Age (3500 cal. yr BP) onwards. The anticipated upslope tree movements as a consequence ongoing global warming are not yet clearly visible in our records, but will more probably take place in abandoned agricultural areas and be counter-balanced by re-enforced anthropogenic pressure elsewhere. Pinus sylvestris was the dominant tree species in the timberline under a warm and dry climate, when fires were frequent, during the early Holocene (11,250-10,200 cal. yr BP), while Picea abies became dominant in the timberline and Pinus mugo in the treeline ecotone, respectively from 10,200 cal. yr BP to the present. Abies alba became a significant component of the timber over the last four millennia. The anticipated future warmer and moister climatic conditions will favour the persistence of P. abies as well as A. alba. However, A. alba is more sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance, which implies that in places with continuing farmland pressure, A. alba may be less prevalent than P. abies in the future. Anthropogenic pressure is expected to increase the proportion of tree species characteristic of more disturbed forests and consequently threaten biodiversity with important implications for mountain ecosystem services.

Identification of Anthropogenic CO2 Using Triple Oxygen and Clumped Isotopes.

PubMed

Laskar, Amzad H; Mahata, Sasadhar; Liang, Mao-Chang

2016-11-01

Quantification of contributions from various sources of CO 2 is important for understanding the atmospheric CO 2 budget. Considering the number and diversity of sources and sinks, the widely used proxies such as concentration and conventional isotopic compositions (δ 13 C and δ 18 O) are not always sufficient to fully constrain the CO 2 budget. Additional constraints may help in understanding the mechanisms of CO 2 production and consumption. The anomaly in triple oxygen isotopes or 17 O excess (denoted by Δ 17 O) and molecules containing two rare isotopes, called clumped isotopes, are two recently developed tracers with potentials to independently constrain some important processes that regulate CO 2 in the atmosphere. The clumped isotope for CO 2 , denoted by Δ 47 , is the excess of 13 C 16 O 18 O over a random distribution of isotopes in a CO 2 molecule. We measured the concentrations of δ 13 C, δ 18 O, Δ 17 O, and Δ 47 in air CO 2 samples collected from the Hsuehshan tunnel (length: 12.9 km), and applied linear and polynomial regressions to obtain the fossil fuel end-members for all these isotope proxies. The other end-members, the values of all these proxies for background air CO 2 , are either assumed or taken as the values obtained over the tunnel and ocean. The fossil fuel (anthropogenic) CO 2 end-member values for δ 13 C, δ 18 O, Δ 17 O, and Δ 47 are estimated using the two component mixing approach: the derived values are -26.76 ± 0.25‰, 24.57 ± 0.33‰, -0.219 ± 0.021‰, and 0.267 ± 0.036‰, respectively. These four major CO 2 isotope tracers along with the concentration were used to estimate the anthropogenic contribution in the atmospheric CO 2 in urban and suburban locations. We demonstrate that Δ 17 O and Δ 47 have the potential to independently estimate anthropogenic contribution, and the advantages of these two over the conventional isotope proxies are discussed.

Planktonic Foraminifera Proxies Calibration Off the NW Iberian Margin: Nutrients Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salgueiro, E.; Castro, C. G.; Zuniga, D.; Martin, P. A.; Groeneveld, J.; de la Granda, F.; Villaceiros-Robineau, N.; Alonso-Perez, F.; Alberto, A.; Rodrigues, T.; Rufino, M. M.; Abrantes, F. F. G.; Voelker, A. H. L.

2014-12-01

Planktonic foraminifera (PF) shells preserved in marine sediments are a useful tool to reconstruct productivity conditions at different geological timescales. However, the accuracy of these paleoreconstructions depends on the data set and calibration quality. Several calibration works have been defining and improving the use of proxies for productivity and nutrient cycling parameters. Our contribution is centred on a multi-proxy calibration at a regional coastal upwelling system. To minimize the existing uncertainties affecting the use of trace elements and C stable isotopes as productivity proxy in the high productivity upwelling areas, we investigate the content and distribution of Ba/Ca and δ13C in the water column, its transference into the planktonic foraminifera shells, and, how the living planktonic foraminifera Ba/Ca and δ13C signal is related to the same planktonic foraminiferal species preserved in the sediment record. This study is based on a large data set from two stations (RAIA - 75m water depth, and CALIBERIA - 350m water depth) located off the NW Iberian margin (41.5-42.5ºN; 9-10ºW), and includes: i) two year monthly water column data (temperature, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll a, Ba/Ca, and δ13C-DIC); ii) seasonal Ba/Ca, δ13C in several living PF species at both stations; and iii) Ba/Ca and δ13C in several PF species from a large set of core-top sediment samples in the study region. Additionally, total organic carbon and total alkenones were also measured in the sediment. Our results showed the link between productivity proxies in the surface sediment foraminifera assemblage and the processes regulating the actual phytoplankton dynamics in an upwelling area. The understanding of this relationship has special relevance since it gives fundamental information related to the past oceanic biogeochemistry and/or climate and improves the prevision of future changes against possible climate variability due to anthropogenic forcing.

A Quantum Multi-Proxy Weak Blind Signature Scheme Based on Entanglement Swapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, LiLi; Chang, Yan; Zhang, ShiBin; Han, GuiHua; Sheng, ZhiWei

2017-02-01

In this paper, we present a multi-proxy weak blind signature scheme based on quantum entanglement swapping of Bell states. In the scheme, proxy signers can finish the signature instead of original singer with his/her authority. It can be applied to the electronic voting system, electronic paying system, etc. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. It could guarantee not only the unconditionally security but also the anonymity of the message owner. The security analysis shows the scheme satisfies the security features of multi-proxy weak signature, singers cannot disavowal his/her signature while the signature cannot be forged by others, and the message owner can be traced.

Environmental dynamics and carbon accumulation rate of a tropical peatland in Central Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapsari, Kartika Anggi; Biagioni, Siria; Jennerjahn, Tim C.; Reimer, Peter Meyer; Saad, Asmadi; Achnopha, Yudhi; Sabiham, Supiandi; Behling, Hermann

2017-08-01

Tropical peatlands are important for the global carbon cycle as they store 18% of the total global peat carbon. As they are vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, a rapidly changing environment endangers peatlands and their carbon storage potential. Understanding the mechanisms of peatland carbon accumulation from studying past developments may, therefore, help to assess the future role of tropical peatlands. Using a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach, a peat core taken from the Sungai Buluh peatland in Central Sumatra has been analyzed for its pollen and spore, macro charcoal and biogeochemical composition. The result suggests that peat and C accumulation rates were driven mainly by sea level change, river water level, climatic variability and anthropogenic activities. It is also suggested that peat C accumulation in Sungai Buluh is correlated to the abundance of Freycinetia, Myrtaceae, Calophyllum, Stemonuraceae, Ficus and Euphorbiaceae. Sungai Buluh has reasonable potential for being a future global tropical peat C sinks. However, considering the impact of rapid global climate change in addition to land-use change following rapid economic growth in Indonesia, such potential may be lost. Taking advantage of available palaeoecological records and advances made in Quaternary studies, some considerations for management practice such as identification of priority taxa and conservation sites are suggested.

Looking back - Looking forward: A novel multi-time slice weight-of-evidence approach for defining reference conditions to assess the impact of human activities on lake systems.

PubMed

Hollert, Henner; Crawford, Sarah E; Brack, Werner; Brinkmann, Markus; Fischer, Elske; Hartmann, Kai; Keiter, Steffen; Ottermanns, Richard; Ouellet, Jacob D; Rinke, Karsten; Rösch, Manfred; Roß-Nickoll, Martina; Schäffer, Andreas; Schüth, Christoph; Schulze, Tobias; Schwarz, Anja; Seiler, Thomas-Benjamin; Wessels, Martin; Hinderer, Matthias; Schwalb, Antje

2018-06-01

Lake ecosystems are sensitive recorders of environmental changes that provide continuous archives at annual to decadal resolution over thousands of years. The systematic investigation of land use changes and emission of pollutants archived in Holocene lake sediments as well as the reconstruction of contamination, background conditions, and sensitivity of lake systems offer an ideal opportunity to study environmental dynamics and consequences of anthropogenic impact that increasingly pose risks to human well-being. This paper discusses the use of sediment and other lines of evidence in providing a record of historical and current contamination in lake ecosystems. We present a novel approach to investigate impacts from human activities using chemical-analytical, bioanalytical, ecological, paleolimnological, paleoecotoxicological, archeological as well as modeling techniques. This multi-time slice weight-of-evidence (WOE) approach will generate knowledge on conditions prior to anthropogenic influence and provide knowledge to (i) create a better understanding of the effects of anthropogenic disturbances on biodiversity, (ii) assess water quality by using quantitative data on historical pollution and persistence of pollutants archived over thousands of years in sediments, and (iii) define environmental threshold values using modeling methods. This technique may be applied in order to gain insights into reference conditions of surface and ground waters in catchments with a long history of land use and human impact, which is still a major need that is currently not yet addressed within the context of the European Water Framework Directive. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of trace metals from past mining on the aquatic ecosystem: a multi-proxy approach in the Morvan (France).

PubMed

Camizuli, E; Monna, F; Scheifler, R; Amiotte-Suchet, P; Losno, R; Beis, P; Bohard, B; Chateau, C; Alibert, P

2014-10-01

This study seeks to determine to what extent trace metals resulting from past mining activities are transferred to the aquatic ecosystem, and whether such trace metals still exert deleterious effects on biota. Concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn were measured in streambed sediments, transplanted bryophytes and wild brown trout. This study was conducted at two scales: (i) the entire Morvan Regional Nature Park and (ii) three small watersheds selected for their degree of contamination, based on the presence or absence of past mining sites. The overall quality of streambed sediments was assessed using Sediment Quality Indices (SQIs). According to these standard guidelines, more than 96% of the sediments sampled should not represent a threat to biota. Nonetheless, in watersheds where past mining occurred, SQIs are significantly lower. Transplanted bryophytes at these sites consistently present higher trace metal concentrations. For wild brown trout, the scaled mass and liver indices appear to be negatively correlated with liver Pb concentrations, but there are no obvious relationships between past mining and liver metal concentrations or the developmental instability of specimens. Although the impact of past mining and metallurgical works is apparently not as strong as that usually observed in modern mining sites, it is still traceable. For this reason, past mining sites should be monitored, particularly in protected areas erroneously thought to be free of anthropogenic contamination. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A High-Resolution Speleothem Record From Florida of Atmospheric Teleconnections Since 1,500 Years Ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polk, J. S.; van Beynen, P.; Asmerom, Y.

2008-12-01

Understanding atmospheric teleconnections between tropical, subtropical, and higher-latitude regions of the North Atlantic Ocean is necessary to better evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Here, we present a precisely dated, high- resolution speleothem record of stable isotopes and trace elements from Florida spanning the last 1,500 years. By using a multi-proxy approach, the different climatic influences were deconvolved, including the NAO, ENSO, PDO, and ITCZ, which all can affect our region. Further comparison using time-series analysis between our data and other high-resolution records covering this same period reveal differing influences of these teleconnections on geographic regions. Our record shows both the influence of changing rainfall above the cave and the influence of sea surface temperatures on atmospheric convection caused by atmospheric-oceanic variability over time.

Spring temperature variability and eutrophication history inferred from sedimentary pigments in the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie, north-eastern Poland, AD 1907-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amann, Benjamin; Lobsiger, Simon; Fischer, Daniela; Tylmann, Wojciech; Bonk, Alicja; Filipiak, Janusz; Grosjean, Martin

2014-12-01

Varved lake sediments are excellent natural archives providing quantitative insights into climatic and environmental changes at very high resolution and chronological accuracy. However, due to the multitude of responses within lake ecosystems it is often difficult to understand how climate variability interacts with other environmental pressures such as eutrophication, and to attribute observed changes to specific causes. This is particularly challenging during the past 100 years when multiple strong trends are superposed. Here we present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of sedimentary pigments and other biogeochemical data from the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie (Masurian Lake District, north-eastern Poland, 54°N-22°E, 120 m a.s.l.) spanning AD 1907 to 2008. Lake Żabińskie exhibits biogeochemical varves with highly organic late summer and winter layers separated by white layers of endogenous calcite precipitated in early summer. The aim of our study is to investigate whether climate-driven changes and anthropogenic changes can be separated in a multi-proxy sediment data set, and to explore which sediment proxies are potentially suitable for long quantitative climate reconstructions. We also test if convoluted analytical techniques (e.g. HPLC) can be substituted by rapid scanning techniques (visible reflectance spectroscopy VIS-RS; 380-730 nm). We used principal component analysis and cluster analysis to show that the recent eutrophication of Lake Żabińskie can be discriminated from climate-driven changes for the period AD 1907-2008. The eutrophication signal (PC1 = 46.4%; TOC, TN, TS, Phe-b, high TC/CD ratios total carotenoids/chlorophyll-a derivatives) is mainly expressed as increasing aquatic primary production, increasing hypolimnetic anoxia and a change in the algal community from green algae to blue-green algae. The proxies diagnostic for eutrophication show a smooth positive trend between 1907 and ca 1980 followed by a very rapid increase from ca. 1980 ± 2 onwards. We demonstrate that PC2 (24.4%, Chl-a-related pigments) is not affected by the eutrophication signal, but instead is sensitive to spring (MAM) temperature (r = 0.63, pcorr < 0.05, RMSEP = 0.56 °C; 5-yr filtered). Limnological monitoring data (2011-2013) support this finding. We also demonstrate that scanning visible reflectance spectroscopy (VIS-RS) data can be calibrated to HPLC-measured chloropigment data and be used to infer concentrations of sedimentary Chl-a derivatives {pheophytin a + pyropheophytin a}. This offers the possibility for very high-resolution (multi)millennial-long paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Accounting for land use in life cycle assessment: The value of NPP as a proxy indicator to assess land use impacts on ecosystems.

PubMed

Taelman, Sue Ellen; Schaubroeck, Thomas; De Meester, Steven; Boone, Lieselot; Dewulf, Jo

2016-04-15

Terrestrial land and its resources are finite, though, for economic and socio-cultural needs of humans, these natural resources are further exploited. It highlights the need to quantify the impact humans possibly have on the environment due to occupation and transformation of land. As a starting point of this paper (1(st) objective), the land use activities, which may be mainly socio-culturally or economically oriented, are identified in addition to the natural land-based processes and stocks and funds that can be altered due to land use. To quantify the possible impact anthropogenic land use can have on the natural environment, linked to a certain product or service, life cycle assessment (LCA) is a tool commonly used. During the last decades, many indicators are developed within the LCA framework in an attempt to evaluate certain environmental impacts of land use. A second objective of this study is to briefly review these indicators and to categorize them according to whether they assess a change in the asset of natural resources for production and consumption or a disturbance of certain ecosystem processes, i.e. ecosystem health. Based on these findings, two enhanced proxy indicators are proposed (3(rd) objective). Both indicators use net primary production (NPP) loss (potential NPP in the absence of humans minus remaining NPP after land use) as a relevant proxy to primarily assess the impact of land use on ecosystem health. As there are two approaches to account for the natural and productive value of the NPP remaining after land use, namely the Human Appropriation of NPP (HANPP) and hemeroby (or naturalness) concepts, two indicators are introduced and the advantages and limitations compared to state-of-the-art NPP-based land use indicators are discussed. Exergy-based spatially differentiated characterization factors (CFs) are calculated for several types of land use (e.g., pasture land, urban land). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extending isotopic fractionation in phytoplankton for Phanerozoic pCO2 reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witkowski, C. R.; Agostini, S.; Weijers, J.; Schouten, S.; S Sinninghe Damsté, J.

2017-12-01

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is a keystone in many earth system dynamics, including the biosphere, carbon cycle, and climate. In order to better understand the impact of today's exceptional increases in pCO2 on the future, we look to secular trends in pCO2. Photosynthetic carbon isotopic fractionation (Ɛp), calculated from the difference between the stable carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) of environmental CO2 and biomass, has some of the lowest uncertainty in estimation among CO2 proxies. However, Ɛp is generally applied to species-specific compounds which have an evolution-limited record (e.g. alkenones limited ca. 50 Ma). To extend the use of Ɛp, we explore the general phytoplankton biomarker phytane. As the fossilized side-chain of chlorophyll, phytane is spatially and temporally ubiquitous, with the potential to record pCO2 back to the earliest photoautotrophs in the geologic record. To develop and validate its potential as a pCO2 proxy, we explored phytane in modern environments, in a multi-proxy case study, and in a Phanerozoic reconstruction. As a proof-of-concept, the δ13C of phytane was tested in modern environments at naturally-occurring CO2 vents in Japan and Italy, which showed clear fractionation over the steep CO2 gradient. This was then further tested in a multi-proxy assessment in DSDP site 467 that spans the last 15 Ma, looking at both well-established (i.e. alkenones) and potential (i.e. phytane, steranes, hopanes) pCO2 proxies; phytane represented the average δ13C for these biomarkers. Finally, the δ13C of phytane data over the Phanerozoic was compiled, showing agreement with literature reconstructions of pCO2. Current pCO2 reconstructions are derived from many different types of proxies, which can create incongruities and inconsistencies throughout time, making this single well-constrained proxy that ubiquitously spans the geologic record a useful addition to the palaeo-detective's toolbox.

Characterizing the Status (Disturbed, Hybrid or Novel) of Swamp Forest Fragments in a Caribbean Ramsar Wetland: The Impact of Anthropogenic Degradation and Invasive Plant Species.

PubMed

Prospere, Kurt; McLaren, Kurt P; Wilson, Byron

2016-10-01

The last remaining Amazonian-type swamp forest fragments in Black River Lower Morass, Jamaica, have been subjected to a myriad of anthropogenic disturbances, compounded by the establishment and spread of several invasive plant species. We established 44 permanent sample plots (covering 3.92 ha) across 10 of these swamp forest fragments and sampled all non-woody plants and all trees ≥2 cm DBH found in the plots. These data were used to (1) identify thresholds of hybridity and novelty, (2) derive several diversity and structural descriptors used to characterize the swamp forest fragments and (3) identify possible indicators of anthropogenic degradation. These were incorporated into a framework and used to determine the status of the swamp forest fragments so that appropriate management and conservation measures can be implemented. We recorded 43 woody plant species (9 endemic, 28 native and 4 non-native) and 21 non-tree species. The composition and structure of all the patches differed significantly due to the impact of the herbaceous invasive plant Alpinia allughas, the presence and diversity of other non-native plants, and differing intensities of anthropogenic disturbance (e.g., burning, cutting and harvesting of non-timber forest products). We ranked forest patches along a continuum representing deviations from a historical proxy (least disturbed) swamp forest to those with dramatically altered structural and floristic attributes (=novel swamp forests). Only one fragment overrun with A. allughas was classified as novel. If effective conservation and management does not come to the BRLM, the remaining swamp forest fragments appear doomed to further degradation and will soon disappear altogether.

Characterizing the Status (Disturbed, Hybrid or Novel) of Swamp Forest Fragments in a Caribbean Ramsar Wetland: The Impact of Anthropogenic Degradation and Invasive Plant Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prospere, Kurt; McLaren, Kurt P.; Wilson, Byron

2016-10-01

The last remaining Amazonian-type swamp forest fragments in Black River Lower Morass, Jamaica, have been subjected to a myriad of anthropogenic disturbances, compounded by the establishment and spread of several invasive plant species. We established 44 permanent sample plots (covering 3.92 ha) across 10 of these swamp forest fragments and sampled all non-woody plants and all trees ≥2 cm DBH found in the plots. These data were used to (1) identify thresholds of hybridity and novelty, (2) derive several diversity and structural descriptors used to characterize the swamp forest fragments and (3) identify possible indicators of anthropogenic degradation. These were incorporated into a framework and used to determine the status of the swamp forest fragments so that appropriate management and conservation measures can be implemented. We recorded 43 woody plant species (9 endemic, 28 native and 4 non-native) and 21 non-tree species. The composition and structure of all the patches differed significantly due to the impact of the herbaceous invasive plant Alpinia allughas, the presence and diversity of other non-native plants, and differing intensities of anthropogenic disturbance (e.g., burning, cutting and harvesting of non-timber forest products). We ranked forest patches along a continuum representing deviations from a historical proxy (least disturbed) swamp forest to those with dramatically altered structural and floristic attributes (=novel swamp forests). Only one fragment overrun with A. allughas was classified as novel. If effective conservation and management does not come to the BRLM, the remaining swamp forest fragments appear doomed to further degradation and will soon disappear altogether.

Deep-sea coral record of human impact on watershed quality in the Mississippi River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prouty, Nancy G.; Roark, E. Brendan; Koenig, Alan E.; Demopoulos, Amanda W. J.; Batista, Fabian C.; Kocar, Benjamin D.; Selby, David; McCarthy, Matthew D.; Mienis, Furu

2014-01-01

One of the greatest drivers of historical nutrient and sediment transport into the Gulf of Mexico is the unprecedented scale and intensity of land use change in the Mississippi River Basin. These landscape changes are linked to enhanced fluxes of carbon and nitrogen pollution from the Mississippi River, and persistent eutrophication and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Increased terrestrial runoff is one hypothesis for recent enrichment in bulk nitrogen isotope (δ15N) values, a tracer for nutrient source, observed in a Gulf of Mexico deep-sea coral record. However, unambiguously linking anthropogenic land use change to whole scale shifts in downstream Gulf of Mexico biogeochemical cycles is difficult. Here we present a novel approach, coupling a new tracer of agro-industrialization to a multiproxy record of nutrient loading in long-lived deep-sea corals collected in the Gulf of Mexico. We found that coral bulk δ15N values are enriched over the last 150–200 years relative to the last millennia, and compound-specific amino acid δ15N data indicate a strong increase in baseline δ15N of nitrate as the primary cause. Coral rhenium (Re) values are also strongly elevated during this period, suggesting that 34% of Re is of anthropogenic origin, consistent with Re enrichment in major world rivers. However, there are no pre-anthropogenic measurements of Re to confirm this observation. For the first time, an unprecedented record of natural and anthropogenic Re variability is documented through coral Re records. Taken together, these novel proxies link upstream changes in water quality to impacts on the deep-sea coral ecosystem.

Deep-sea coral record of human impact on watershed quality in the Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prouty, N.; Roark, B.; Koenig, A.; Batista, F. C.; Kocar, B. D.; Selby, D. S.; Mccarthy, M. D.; Mienis, F.; Ross, S. W.; Demopoulos, A. W.

2015-12-01

One of the greatest drivers of historical nutrient and sediment transport into the Gulf of Mexico is the unprecedented scale and intensity of land use change in the Mississippi River Basin. These landscape changes are linked to enhanced fluxes of carbon and nitrogen pollution from the Mississippi River, and persistent eutrophication and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Increased terrestrial runoff is one hypothesis for recent enrichment in bulk nitrogen isotope (δ15N) values, a tracer for nutrient source, observed in a Gulf of Mexico deep-sea coral record. However, unambiguously linking anthropogenic land use change to whole scale shifts in downstream Gulf of Mexico biogeochemical cycles is difficult. Here we present a novel approach, coupling a new tracer of agro-industrialization to a multiproxy record of nutrient loading in long-lived deep-sea corals collected in the Gulf of Mexico. We found that coral bulk δ15N values are enriched over the last 150-200 years relative to the last millennia, and compound-specific amino acid δ15N data indicate a strong increase in baseline δ15N of nitrate as the primary cause. Coral rhenium (Re) values are also strongly elevated during this period, suggesting that 34% of Re is of anthropogenic origin, consistent with Re enrichment in major world rivers. However, there are no pre-anthropogenic measurements of Re to confirm this observation. For the first time, an unprecedented record of natural and anthropogenic Re variability is documented through coral Re records. Taken together, these novel proxies link upstream changes in water quality to impacts on the deep-sea coral ecosystem.

Deep-sea coral record of human impact on watershed quality in the Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prouty, Nancy G.; Roark, E. Brendan; Koenig, Alan E.; Demopoulos, Amanda W. J.; Batista, Fabian C.; Kocar, Benjamin D.; Selby, David; McCarthy, Matthew D.; Mienis, Furu

2014-01-01

One of the greatest drivers of historical nutrient and sediment transport into the Gulf of Mexico is the unprecedented scale and intensity of land use change in the Mississippi River Basin. These landscape changes are linked to enhanced fluxes of carbon and nitrogen pollution from the Mississippi River, and persistent eutrophication and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Increased terrestrial runoff is one hypothesis for recent enrichment in bulk nitrogen isotope (δ15N) values, a tracer for nutrient source, observed in a Gulf of Mexico deep-sea coral record. However, unambiguously linking anthropogenic land use change to whole scale shifts in downstream Gulf of Mexico biogeochemical cycles is difficult. Here we present a novel approach, coupling a new tracer of agro-industrialization to a multiproxy record of nutrient loading in long-lived deep-sea corals collected in the Gulf of Mexico. We found that coral bulk δ15N values are enriched over the last 150-200 years relative to the last millennia, and compound-specific amino acid δ15N data indicate a strong increase in baseline δ15N of nitrate as the primary cause. Coral rhenium (Re) values are also strongly elevated during this period, suggesting that 34% of Re is of anthropogenic origin, consistent with Re enrichment in major world rivers. However, there are no pre-anthropogenic measurements of Re to confirm this observation. For the first time, an unprecedented record of natural and anthropogenic Re variability is documented through coral Re records. Taken together, these novel proxies link upstream changes in water quality to impacts on the deep-sea coral ecosystem.

The nitrogen footprint tool network: a multi-institution program to reduce nitrogen pollution

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic sources of reactive nitrogen have local and global impacts on air and water quality and detrimental effects on human and ecosystem health. This paper uses the nitrogen footprint tool (NFT) to determine the amount of nitrogen (N) released as a result of institutional...

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.

PubMed

Reed, Andra J; Mann, Michael E; Emanuel, Kerry A; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P; Kemp, Andrew C; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

2015-10-13

In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850-1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970-2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

PubMed Central

Reed, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

2015-01-01

In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. PMID:26417111

Anthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior

PubMed Central

O'Beirne, M. D.; Werne, J. P.; Hecky, R. E.; Johnson, T. C.; Katsev, S.; Reavie, E. D.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter many facets of Earth's freshwater resources, especially lacustrine ecosystems. The effects of anthropogenic changes in Lake Superior, which is Earth's largest freshwater lake by area, are not well documented (spatially or temporally) and predicted future states in response to climate change vary. Here we show that Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in production throughout the Holocene using (paleo)productivity proxies in lacustrine sediments to reconstruct past changes in primary production. Furthermore, data from the last century indicate a rapid increase in primary production, which we attribute to increasing surface water temperatures and longer seasonal stratification related to longer ice-free periods in Lake Superior due to anthropogenic climate warming. These observations demonstrate that anthropogenic effects have become a prominent influence on one of Earth's largest, most pristine lacustrine ecosystems. PMID:28598413

Anthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior.

PubMed

O'Beirne, M D; Werne, J P; Hecky, R E; Johnson, T C; Katsev, S; Reavie, E D

2017-06-09

Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter many facets of Earth's freshwater resources, especially lacustrine ecosystems. The effects of anthropogenic changes in Lake Superior, which is Earth's largest freshwater lake by area, are not well documented (spatially or temporally) and predicted future states in response to climate change vary. Here we show that Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in production throughout the Holocene using (paleo)productivity proxies in lacustrine sediments to reconstruct past changes in primary production. Furthermore, data from the last century indicate a rapid increase in primary production, which we attribute to increasing surface water temperatures and longer seasonal stratification related to longer ice-free periods in Lake Superior due to anthropogenic climate warming. These observations demonstrate that anthropogenic effects have become a prominent influence on one of Earth's largest, most pristine lacustrine ecosystems.

Multi-year application of WRF-CAM5 over East Asia-Part II: Interannual variability, trend analysis, and aerosol indirect effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; He, Jian

2017-09-01

Following a comprehensive evaluation of WRF-CAM5 in Part I, Part II describes analyses of interannual variability, multi-year variation trends, and the direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols. The interannual variations of chemical column and surface concentrations, and ozone (O3)/particulate matter (PM) indicators are strongly correlated to anthropogenic emission changes. Despite model biases, the model captures well the observed interannual variations of temperature at 2-m, cloud fraction, shortwave cloud forcing, downwelling shortwave radiation, cloud droplet number concentration, column O3, and column formaldehyde (HCHO) for the whole domain. While the model reproduces the volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes of O3 chemistry at sites in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET) and the degree of sulfate neutralization at the EANET sites, it has limited capability in capturing the interannual variations of the ratio of O3 and nitrogen dioxide (O3/NO2) and PM chemical regime indicators, due to uncertainties in the emissions of precursors for O3 and secondary PM, the model assumption for ammonium bisulfate (NH4HSO4) as well as lack of gas/particle partitioning of total ammonia and total nitrate. While the variation trends in multi-year periods in aerosol optical depth and column concentrations of carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and NO2 are mainly caused by anthropogenic emissions, those of major meteorological and cloud variables partly reflect feedbacks of chemistry to meteorological variables. The impacts of anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects either dominate or play an important role in the aerosol total effects for most cloud and chemical predictions, whereas anthropogenic aerosol direct effects influence most meteorological and radiation variables. The direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols exhibit a strong interannual variability in 2001, 2006, and 2011.

A multi-proxy intercomparison of environmental change in two maar lake records from central Turkey during the last 14 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, C. Neil; Allcock, Samantha L.; Arnaud, Fabien; Dean, Jonathan R.; Eastwood, Warren J.; Jones, Matthew D.; Leng, Melanie J.; Metcalfe, Sarah E.; Malet, Emmanuel; Woodbridge, Jessie; Yiǧitbaşıoǧlu, Hakan

2016-04-01

Individual palaeoenvironmental records are a combination of regional-scale (e.g. climatic) and local factors. In order to separate these signals, we compare multiple proxies from two nearby maar lake records, on the assumption that common signals are due to regional-scale forcing. On the other side, we infer that residual signals are likely to be local and site-specific, rather than reflecting regional climate changes. A new core sequence from Nar lake has been dated by varve counting and U-Th as covering the last 13,800 years (Dean et al., 2015; Roberts et al., 2016). Periods of marked dryness are associated with peaks in Mg/dolomite, elevated Diatom-Inferred Electrical Conductivity, an absence of laminated sediments, and low Quercus/chenopod ratios. These conditions occurred during the Late-Glacial stadial, at 4.3-3.7 and 3.2-2.6 ka BP. Wet phases occurred during the early Holocene and again 1.5-0.6 ka, characterised by negative δ18O values, calcite precipitation, high Ca/Sr ratios, a high % of planktonic diatoms, laminated sediments, and high Quercus/chenopod ratios. Comparison with the independently dated record from Eski Acıgöl (Roberts et al., 2001) shows good correspondence for many proxies, especially for δ18O. A ranking of multiple proxies shows the worst correspondence is for clastic lithogenic elements (e.g. Ti flux). Differences between the two lake records are caused by basin infilling at Eski Acıgöl, which fails to register climatic changes during the last 2 ka, and to catchment erosion and increased flux of lithogenic elements into Nar lake; this is catchment-specific and primarily anthropogenic rather than climatic in origin. In separating a regional signal from site-specific "noise", two lakes may therefore be better than one. Dean, J.R. et al. 2015 Eastern Mediterranean hydroclimate over the late glacial and Holocene, reconstructed from the sediments of Nar lake, central Turkey, using stable isotopes and carbonate mineralogy. Quaternary Science Reviews 124, 162-174. Roberts, N et al. 2001 The tempo of Holocene climatic change in the eastern Mediterranean region: new high-resolution crater-lake sediment data from central Turkey. The Holocene 11, 721-736. Roberts, N., et al 2016 in press, A tale of two lakes: a multi-proxy comparison of Late Glacial and Holocene environmental change in Cappadocia, Turkey. Journal of Quaternary Science

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Scaling Properties of Human Settlements (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, C.; Milesi, C.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.; Henebry, G. M.; Nghiem, S. V.

2013-12-01

Growth and evolution of cities and smaller settlements is usually studied in the context of population and other socioeconomic variables. While this is logical in the sense that settlements are groups of humans engaged in socioeconomic processes, our means of collecting information about spatio-temporal distributions of population and socioeconomic variables often lack the spatial and temporal resolution to represent the processes at scales which they are known to occur. Furthermore, metrics and definitions often vary with country and through time. However, remote sensing provides globally consistent, synoptic observations of several proxies for human settlement at spatial and temporal resolutions sufficient to represent the evolution of settlements over the past 40 years. We use several independent but complementary proxies for anthropogenic land cover to quantify spatio-temporal (ST) evolution and scaling properties of human settlements globally. In this study we begin by comparing land cover and night lights in 8 diverse settings - each spanning gradients of population density and degree of land surface modification. Stable anthropogenic night light is derived from multi-temporal composites of emitted luminance measured by the VIIRS and DMSP-OLS sensors. Land cover is represented as mixtures of sub-pixel fractions of rock, soil and impervious Substrates, Vegetation and Dark surfaces (shadow, water and absorptive materials) estimated from Landsat imagery with > 94% accuracy. Multi-season stability and variability of land cover fractions effectively distinguishes between spectrally similar land covers that corrupt thematic classifications based on single images. We find that temporal stability of impervious substrates combined with persistent shadow cast between buildings results in temporally stable aggregate reflectance across seasons at the 30 m scale of a Landsat pixel. Comparison of night light brightness with land cover composition, stability and variability yields several consistent relationships that persist across a variety of settlement types and physical environments. We use the multiple threshold method of Small et al (2011) to represent a continuum of settlement density by segmenting both night light brightness and multi-season land cover characteristics. Rank-size distributions of spatially contiguous segments quantify scaling and connectivity of land cover. Spatial and temporal evolution of rank-size distributions is consistent with power laws as suggested by Zipf's Law for city size based on population. However, unlike Zipf's Law, the observed distributions persist to global scales in which the larger agglomerations are much larger than individual cities. The scaling relations observed extend from the scale of cities and smaller settlements up to vast spatial networks of interconnected settlements.

Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Pepijn; Clark, Peter U.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Schmittner, Andreas; Weber, Michael E.

2017-01-01

Proxy-based indicators of past climate change show that current global climate models systematically underestimate Holocene-epoch climate variability on centennial to multi-millennial timescales, with the mismatch increasing for longer periods. Proposed explanations for the discrepancy include ocean-atmosphere coupling that is too weak in models, insufficient energy cascades from smaller to larger spatial and temporal scales, or that global climate models do not consider slow climate feedbacks related to the carbon cycle or interactions between ice sheets and climate. Such interactions, however, are known to have strongly affected centennial- to orbital-scale climate variability during past glaciations, and are likely to be important in future climate change. Here we show that fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge caused by relatively small changes in subsurface ocean temperature can amplify multi-centennial climate variability regionally and globally, suggesting that a dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet may have driven climate fluctuations during the Holocene. We analysed high-temporal-resolution records of iceberg-rafted debris derived from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and performed both high-spatial-resolution ice-sheet modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and multi-millennial global climate model simulations. Ice-sheet responses to decadal-scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long-term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.

Human threats to sandy beaches: A meta-analysis of ghost crabs illustrates global anthropogenic impacts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlacher, Thomas A.; Lucrezi, Serena; Connolly, Rod M.; Peterson, Charles H.; Gilby, Ben L.; Maslo, Brooke; Olds, Andrew D.; Walker, Simon J.; Leon, Javier X.; Huijbers, Chantal M.; Weston, Michael A.; Turra, Alexander; Hyndes, Glenn A.; Holt, Rebecca A.; Schoeman, David S.

2016-02-01

Beach and coastal dune systems are increasingly subjected to a broad range of anthropogenic pressures that on many shorelines require significant conservation and mitigation interventions. But these interventions require reliable data on the severity and frequency of adverse ecological impacts. Such evidence is often obtained by measuring the response of 'indicator species'. Ghost crabs are the largest invertebrates inhabiting tropical and subtropical sandy shores and are frequently used to assess human impacts on ocean beaches. Here we present the first global meta-analysis of these impacts, and analyse the design properties and metrics of studies using ghost-crabs in their assessment. This was complemented by a gap analysis to identify thematic areas of anthropogenic pressures on sandy beach ecosystems that are under-represented in the published literature. Our meta-analysis demonstrates a broad geographic reach, encompassing studies on shores of the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, as well as the South China Sea. It also reveals what are, arguably, two major limitations: i) the near-universal use of proxies (i.e. burrow counts to estimate abundance) at the cost of directly measuring biological traits and bio-markers in the organism itself; and ii) descriptive or correlative study designs that rarely extend beyond a simple 'compare and contrast approach', and hence fail to identify the mechanistic cause(s) of observed contrasts. Evidence for a historically narrow range of assessed pressures (i.e., chiefly urbanisation, vehicles, beach nourishment, and recreation) is juxtaposed with rich opportunities for the broader integration of ghost crabs as a model taxon in studies of disturbance and impact assessments on ocean beaches. Tangible advances will most likely occur where ghost crabs provide foci for experiments that test specific hypotheses associated with effects of chemical, light and acoustic pollution, as well as the consequences of climate change (e.g. species range shifts).

High-resolution mapping of anthropogenic heat in China from 1992 to 2010.

PubMed

Yang, Wangming; Chen, Bing; Cui, Xuefeng

2014-04-14

Anthropogenic heat generated by human activity contributes to urban and regional climate warming. Due to the resolution and accuracy of existing anthropogenic heat data, it is difficult to analyze and simulate the corresponding effects. This study exploited a new method to estimate high spatial and temporal resolutions of anthropogenic heat based on long-term data of energy consumption and the US Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program-Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) data from 1992 to 2010 across China. Our results showed that, throughout the entire study period, there are apparent increasing trends in anthropogenic heat in three major metropoli, i.e., the Beijing-Tianjin region, the Yangzi River delta and the Pearl River delta. The annual mean anthropogenic heat fluxes for Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou in 2010 were 17 Wm⁻², 19 and 7.8 Wm⁻², respectively. Comparisons with previous studies indicate that DMSP-OLS data could provide a better spatial proxy for estimating anthropogenic heat than population density and our analysis shows better performance at large scales for estimation of anthropogenic heat.

Identification of tsunami deposits using organic markers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellanova, Piero; Schwarzbauer, Jan; Reicherter, Klaus; Jaffe, Bruce; Szczucinski, Witold

2017-04-01

Geochemical analyses of tsunami deposits are becoming standard and are used in almost every study. However, only inorganic proxies are typically studied. Recent studies that developed and broaden geochemical methods to investigate tsunami deposits (e.g., Szczucinski et al., 2016) and illustrate the importance of information from biomarker analyses (e.g., Shinozaki et al., 2015). These studies indicated that organic geochemistry can be used for the differentiation between marine and terrestrial matter, indicating a potential source of a deposit. Organic proxies also have the advantage of remaining longer in the sediment than inorganic proxies, which can be leached out by groundwater or rain. The 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami inundated as much as 4.5 km inland and had run up heights of up to 40 m. Samples of sandy tsunami deposits from Sendai Plain, Samenoura Bay, and Oppa Bay (Japan) were collected and analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) to search for natural compounds (biomarkers) and anthropogenic pollutants (anthropogenic markers). Natural compounds substances, such as fatty acids and n-alkanes, and anthropogenic compounds (e.g., polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and pesticides) were identified and quantified. Further, the two different compound types (natural vs. anthropogenic) were evaluated for their usefulness in identification of deposits from extreme flooding events. The analyzed chemical compounds and their diagenetic transformation products were distinctly different for the pre-tsunami, the tsunami and the thin post-tsunami eolian deposits. The preliminary results of this study point out the utility of organic indicators for the identification of extreme flooding events (like tsunamis), particularly for historic events. References Shinozaki, T., Fujino, S., Ikehara, M., Sawai, Y., Tamura, T., Goto, K., Sugawara, D., Abe, T., 2015. Marine biomarkers deposited on coastal land by the 2011Tohoku-oki tsunami. Natural Hazards 77,455-460. Szczuciński, W., Pawłowska, J., Lejzerowicz, F., Nishimura, Y., Kokociński, M., Majewski, W., Nakamura, Y., Pawlowski, J., 2016. Ancient sedimentary DNA reveals past tsunami deposits. Marine Geology 381, 29-33.

Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Hansen, James E.; Sun, Shan

2006-12-01

Holocene climate proxies suggest substantial correlations between tropical meteorology and solar variations, but these have thus far not been explained. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere-composition model forced by sustained multi-decadal irradiance increases, we show that greater tropical temperatures alter the hydrologic cycle, enhancing the climatological precipitation maxima in the tropics while drying the subtropical subsidence regions. The shift is enhanced by tropopause region ozone increases, and the model captures the pattern inferred from paleoclimate records. The physical process we describe likely affected past civilizations, including the Maya, Moche, and Ancestral Puebloans who experienced drought coincident with increased irradiance during the late medieval (~900-1250). Similarly, decreased irradiance may have affected cultures via a weakened monsoon during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1750). Projections of 21st-century climate change yield hydrologic cycle changes via similar processes, suggesting a strong likelihood of increased subtropical drought as climate warms.

Variability of Marine Aerosol Fine-Mode Fraction and Estimates of Anthropogenic Aerosol Component Over Cloud-Free Oceans from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Hongbin; Chin, Mian; Remer, Lorraine A.; Kleidman, Richard G.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Bian, Huisheng; Diehl, Thomas

2009-01-01

In this study, we examine seasonal and geographical variability of marine aerosol fine-mode fraction (f(sub m)) and its impacts on deriving the anthropogenic component of aerosol optical depth (tau(sub a)) and direct radiative forcing from multispectral satellite measurements. A proxy of f(sub m), empirically derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 data, shows large seasonal and geographical variations that are consistent with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) model simulations. The so-derived seasonally and spatially varying f(sub m) is then implemented into a method of estimating tau(sub a) and direct radiative forcing from the MODIS measurements. It is found that the use of a constant value for fm as in previous studies would have overestimated Ta by about 20% over global ocean, with the overestimation up to 45% in some regions and seasons. The 7-year (2001-2007) global ocean average tau(sub a) is 0.035, with yearly average ranging from 0.031 to 0.039. Future improvement in measurements is needed to better separate anthropogenic aerosol from natural ones and to narrow down the wide range of aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elders, Akiko; Pegion, Kathy

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the climate system, moderating the exchange of energy and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere. An emerging area of research investigates how changes, particularly declines, in sea ice extent (SIE) impact climate in regions local to and remote from the Arctic. Therefore, both observations and model estimates of sea ice become important. This study investigates the skill of sea ice predictions from models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. Three of the models in this project provide sea-ice predictions. The ensemble average of these models is used to determine seasonal climate impacts on surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in remote regions such as the mid-latitudes. It is found that declines in fall SIE are associated with cold temperatures in the mid-latitudes and pressure patterns across the Arctic and mid-latitudes similar to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). These findings are consistent with other studies that have investigated the relationship between declines in SIE and mid-latitude weather and climate. In an attempt to include additional NMME models for sea-ice predictions, a proxy for SIE is used to estimate ice extent in the remaining models, using sea surface temperature (SST). It is found that SST is a reasonable proxy for SIE estimation when compared to model SIE forecasts and observations. The proxy sea-ice estimates also show similar relationships to mid-latitude temperature and pressure as the actual sea-ice predictions.

A point-by-point multi-scale surface temperature reconstruction method and tests by pseudo proxy experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.

2016-12-01

This study present a multi-scale approach combining Mode Decomposition and Variance Matching (MDVM) method and basic process of Point-by-Point Regression (PPR) method. Different from the widely applied PPR method, the scanning radius for each grid box, were re-calculated considering the impact from topography (i.e. mean altitudes and fluctuations). Thus, appropriate proxy records were selected to be candidates for reconstruction. The results of this multi-scale methodology could not only provide the reconstructed gridded temperature, but also the corresponding uncertainties of the four typical timescales. In addition, this method can bring in another advantage that spatial distribution of the uncertainty for different scales could be quantified. To interpreting the necessity of scale separation in calibration, with proxy records location over Eastern Asia, we perform two sets of pseudo proxy experiments (PPEs) based on different ensembles of climate model simulation. One consist of 7 simulated results by 5 models (BCC-CSM1-1, CSIRO-MK3L-1-2, HadCM3, MPI-ESM-P, and Giss-E2-R) of the "past1000" simulation from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The other is based on the simulations of Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). The pseudo-records network were obtained by adding the white noise with signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) increasing from 0.1 to 1.0 to the simulated true state and the locations mainly followed the PAGES-2k network in Asia. Totally, 400 years (1601-2000) simulation was used for calibration and 600 years (1001-1600) for verification. The reconstructed results were evaluated by three metrics 1) root mean squared error (RMSE), 2) correlation and 3) reduction of error (RE) score. The PPE verification results have shown that, in comparison with ordinary linear calibration method (variance matching), the RMSE and RE score of PPR-MDVM are improved, especially for the area with sparse proxy records. To be noted, in some periods with large volcanic activities, the RMSE of MDVM get larger than VM for higher SNR cases. It should be inferred that the volcanic eruptions might blur the intrinsic characteristics of multi-scales variabilities of the climate system and the MDVM method would show less advantage in that case.

Seasonal shift of diet in bank voles explains trophic fate of anthropogenic osmium?

PubMed

Ecke, Frauke; Berglund, Åsa M M; Rodushkin, Ilia; Engström, Emma; Pallavicini, Nicola; Sörlin, Dieke; Nyholm, Erik; Hörnfeldt, Birger

2018-05-15

Diet shifts are common in mammals and birds, but little is known about how such shifts along the food web affect contaminant exposure. Voles are staple food for many mammalian and avian predators. There is therefore a risk of transfer of contaminants accumulated in voles within the food chain. Osmium is one of the rarest earth elements with osmium tetroxide (OsO 4 ) as the most toxic vapor-phase airborne contaminant. Anthropogenic OsO 4 accumulates in fruticose lichens that are important winter food of bank voles (Myodes glareolus). Here, we test if a) anthropogenic osmium accumulates in bank voles in winter, and b) accumulation rates and concentrations are lower in autumn when the species is mainly herbivorous. Our study, performed in a boreal forest impacted by anthropogenic osmium, supported the hypotheses for all studied tissues (kidney, liver, lung, muscle and spleen) in 50 studied bank voles. In autumn, osmium concentrations in bank voles were even partly similar to those in the graminivorous field vole (Microtus agrestis; n=14). In autumn but not in late winter/early spring, osmium concentrations were generally negatively correlated with body weight and root length of the first mandible molar, i.e. proxies of bank vole age. Identified negative correlations between organ-to-body weight ratios and osmium concentrations in late winter/early spring indicate intoxication. Our results suggest unequal accumulation risk for predators feeding on different cohorts of bank voles. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years

PubMed Central

Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato

2008-01-01

The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO2 and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO2 but from the combination of CO2, CH4, and N2O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years. PMID:18252830

New Proxies for Climate change parameters: Foram Culturing and Pteropod Potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keul, N.; Schneider, R. R.; Langer, G.; Bijma, J.; Peijnenburg, K. T.

2017-12-01

Global climate change is one of the most pressing challenges our society is currently facing and strong efforts are made to simulate future climate conditions. To better validate models that aim at predicting global temperature rise as a consequence of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, accurate atmospheric paleo-CO2 estimates in combination with temperature reconstructions are necessary. Consequently there is a strong need for reliable proxies, allowing reconstruction of climate change. With respect to foraminifera a combination of laboratory experiments and modeling is presented, to show the isolated impact of the different parameters of the carbonate system on trace element composition of their shells. We focus on U/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios, which have recently been established as new proxies reflecting changes in the carbonate system of seawater. While U/Ca correlates with carbonate ion concentration, Sr/Ca is primarily influenced by DIC. The latter is particularly promising since the impact of additional parameters is relatively well constrained and hence, Sr/Ca ratios may allow higher accuracy in carbonate system parameter reconstructions. Furthermore, our results will be discussed on how to advance our knowledge about foraminiferal biomineralization. Pteropods, among the first responders to ocean acidification and warming, are explored as carriers of marine paleoenvironmental signals. In order to characterize the stable isotopic composition of aragonitic pteropod shells and their variation in response to climate change parameters, pteropod shells were collected along a latitudinal transect in the Atlantic Ocean. By comparing shell oxygen isotopic composition to depth changes of the calculated aragonite equilibrium oxygen isotope values, we infer shallow calcification depths for Heliconoides inflatus (75 m), rendering this species a good potential proxy carrier for past variations in surface ocean properties. Furthermore, we demonstrate that indeed, pteropod shells are excellent recorders of climate change, as carbonate ion and temperature in the upper water column have dominant influences on pteropod shell carbon and oxygen isotopic composition. These results, in combination with a wide distribution and high abundance, make H. inflatus, a promising new proxy carrier in paleoceanography.

Nitrate Deposition to Surface Snow at Summit, Greenland, Following the 9 November 2000 Solar Proton Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duderstadt, Katharine A.; Dibb, Jack E.; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Spence, Harlan E.; Jackman, Charles Herbert; Randall, Cora E.; Solomon, Stanley C.; Mills, Michael J.

2014-01-01

This study considers whether spurious peaks in nitrate ions in snow sampled at Summit, Greenland from August 2000 to August 2002 are related to solar proton events. After identifying tropospheric sources of nitrate on the basis of correlations with sulfate, ammonium, sodium, and calcium, we use the three-dimensional global Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to examine unaccounted for nitrate spikes. Model calculations confirm that solar proton events significantly impact HOx, NOx, and O3 levels in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the weeks and months following the major 9 November 2000 solar proton event. However, SPE-enhanced NOy calculated within the atmospheric column is too small to account for the observed nitrate ion peaks in surface snow. Instead, our WACCM results suggest that nitrate spikes not readily accounted for by measurement correlations are likely of anthropogenic origin. These results, consistent with other recent studies, imply that nitrate spikes in ice cores are not suitable proxies for individual SPEs and motivate the need to identify alternative proxies.

Differences Between Magnitudes and Health Impacts of BC ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Recent assessments have analyzed the health impacts of PM2.5 from emissions from different locations and sectors using simplified or reduced-form air quality models. Here we present an alternative approach using the adjoint of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, which provides source–receptor relationships at highly resolved sectoral, spatial, and temporal scales. While damage resulting from anthropogenic emissions of BC is strongly correlated with population and premature death, we found little correlation between damage and emission magnitude, suggesting that controls on the largest emissions may not be the most efficient means of reducing damage resulting from anthropogenic BC emissions. Rather, the best proxy for locations with damaging BC emissions is locations where premature deaths occur. Onroad diesel and nonroad vehicle emissions are the largest contributors to premature deaths attributed to exposure to BC, while onroad gasoline emissions cause the highest deaths per amount emitted. Emissions in fall and winter contribute to more premature deaths (and more per amount emitted) than emissions in spring and summer. Overall, these results show the value of the high-resolution source attribution for determining the locations, seasons, and sectors for which BC emission controls have the most effective health benefits. The National Exposure Research Laboratory’s Atmospheric Modeling Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA’s mis

Holocene Decadal to Multidecadal Hydrologic Variability in the Everglades: Climate and Implications for Ecosystem Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moses, C. S.; Anderson, W. T.; Saunders, C.; Rebenack, C.

2009-12-01

The Florida Everglades are a complex, unique ecosystem. Adding to the complexity, a system of canals and gates control the flow of waters from central Florida southward into the Everglades, and ultimately Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. With south Florida’s distinct wet and dry seasons, the hydrology has driven ecosystem evolution over the last 4-5 kya. However, since the 1920s the water content of the Everglades has largely been anthropogenically modulated, with the exception of the natural variability of evaporation and precipitation over the large area south of the Tamiami Trail. Because of the incredibly flat nature of the Everglades, small changes in the freshwater balance have substantial impacts on the diversity and distribution of organisms. Decadal and multidecadal variability in precipitation, hurricane incidence, and sea level rise all have important effects on the ecosystem. During the instrumental record, the natural precipitation across south Florida has been strongly influenced by combinations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and ENSO. Here we discuss evidence of natural climate variability impacts on the ecosystem beyond the anthropogenic hydrological controls. Proxy environmental data from seeds, charcoal, and trees, plus the sparse, but available, instrumental records provide evidence of changes in the ecosystem over the Holocene, and suggest considerations for future management.

Tracking the impact of mid- to late Holocene climate change and anthropogenic activities on Lake Holzmaar using an updated Holocene chronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, Sushma; Baier, Janina

2014-11-01

The mid- to late Holocene interval is characterised by a highly variable climate in response to a gradual change in orbital insolation. The seasonal impact of these changes on the Eifel Maar region is not yet well documented largely due to uncertainties about the completeness of this archive ("missing varves" in the well known Lake Holzmaar) and a limited understanding of the factors (e.g. temperature, precipitation) influencing the seasonality archived within the lamination/varves. In this study we approach these challenges from a different perspective. Using detailed microfacies investigations we: (1) demonstrate that the ambiguity about the "missing varves" is related to the climate induced complex biotic and abiotic laminations that led to mis-identification of varves; (2) use a combination of detailed microfacies investigations (varve structure, seasonality of biotic and abiotic signals), lamination quality, varve counts on multiple cores, published and new radiocarbon dates to develop a continuous master chronology based on the Bayesian modelling approach. The dates of major climate, volcanic, and archaeological event(s) determined using our model are in good agreement with the independently determined ages of the same events from other archives, confirming the accuracy of our age model; (3) test the sensitivity of the seasonal proxies to the available data on mid-Holocene changes in temperature and precipitation; (4) demonstrate that the changes in lake eutrophicity are correlative with temperature changes in NW Europe and probably triggered by solar variability; and (5) show that the early Iron Age onset of eutrophication in Lake Holzmaar was climate induced and began several decades before the impact of anthropogenic activity was seen in the form of intensified detrital erosion in the catchment area. Our work has implications for understanding the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on limnological systems.

CLANIMAE: Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on African Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verschuren, D.; André, L.; Mahy, G.; Cocquyt, C.; Plisnier, P.-D.; Gelorini, V.; Rumes, B.; Lebrun, J.; Bock, L.; Marchant, R.

2009-04-01

Global studies of historical land use focusing on the large-scale landscape change that can potentially affect global climate (via effects on surface albedo, aerosols, and the carbon cycle) have concluded that the impact of pre-colonial East African cultures on regional ecosystems was limited, due to very low mean population density. This contrasts with the paradigm in East African archaeology and paleoecology that the onset of anthropogenic deforestation started at least 2500 years ago, following the introduction of iron metallurgy by Bantu immigrants. This conflict highlights the present lack of real data on historical climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, which are eminently relevant to sustainable natural resource management and biodiversity conservation in a future of continued population growth and global climate change. CLANIMAE responds to the urgent need of a correct long-term perspective to today's climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, by reconstructing simultaneously the histories of past climate change and of vegetation and water-quality changes over the last 2500 years, through multi-disciplinary analysis of dated lake-sediment records. The climate reconstructions integrate information on biological, geochemical and sedimentological indicators of past changes in the water balance of the study lakes, which cover the climatological gradient from (sub-)humid western Uganda to semi-arid eastern Kenya. Reconstruction of past terrestrial vegetation dynamics is based on analyses of fossil plant pollen and phytoliths, plus the fossil spores of fungi associated with the excrements of large domestic animals as indicators of lake use by pastoralists. The evolution of water quality through time is reconstructed using silicon isotopes in diatom algae as proxy indicator for past phytoplankton productivity, and paleoecological analyses of fossil diatoms and aquatic macrophytes, following calibration of diatom and macrophyte species distribution against lake trophic status and turbidity in the modern-day regional lake gradient. The integrated paleoecological research method of this project addresses the question of past climate-environment-human relationships at the time scale at which the relevant processes have actually occurred. This will allow us to 1) separate the influences of natural climate variability and human activity on East African ecosystems, 2) determine the exact timing and relative magnitude of indigenous (pre-20th century) anthropogenic land clearance compared to recent landscape alteration, 3) determine the severity of lake water-quality losses due to siltation and excess nutrient input directly linked to deforestation and agriculture, compared to those associated with natural ecosystem variability, and 4) assess the resilience of African ecosystems, and prospects for the restoration of disturbed ecosystems if human pressure were to be reversed.

Surrogate taxa and fossils as reliable proxies of spatial biodiversity patterns in marine benthic communities.

PubMed

Tyler, Carrie L; Kowalewski, Michał

2017-03-15

Rigorous documentation of spatial heterogeneity (β-diversity) in present-day and preindustrial ecosystems is required to assess how marine communities respond to environmental and anthropogenic drivers. However, the overwhelming majority of contemporary and palaeontological assessments have centred on single higher taxa. To evaluate the validity of single taxa as community surrogates and palaeontological proxies, we compared macrobenthic communities and sympatric death assemblages at 52 localities in Onslow Bay (NC, USA). Compositional heterogeneity did not differ significantly across datasets based on live molluscs, live non-molluscs, and all live organisms. Death assemblages were less heterogeneous spatially, likely reflecting homogenization by time-averaging. Nevertheless, live and dead datasets were greater than 80% congruent in pairwise comparisons to the literature estimates of β-diversity in other marine ecosystems, yielded concordant bathymetric gradients, and produced nearly identical ordinations consistently delineating habitats. Congruent estimates from molluscs and non-molluscs suggest that single groups can serve as reliable community proxies. High spatial fidelity of death assemblages supports the emerging paradigm of Conservation Palaeobiology. Integrated analyses of ecological and palaeontological data based on surrogate taxa can quantify anthropogenic changes in marine ecosystems and advance our understanding of spatial and temporal aspects of biodiversity. © 2017 The Author(s).

The diatom flora of Lake Kinneret (Israel) - Paleolimnological evidence for Holocene climate change and human impact in the southeastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vossel, Hannah; Reed, Jane M.; Litt, Thomas

2015-04-01

The Mediterranean basin is a region of highly complex topography and climatic variability, such that our understanding of the past environmental variability is still limited. Diatoms (single-celled siliceous algae, Bacillariophyceae) are abundant, diverse and sensitive to a wide range of environmental parameters. They are often well preserved in lake sediment records, and have well-recognised potential to generate high-quality paleolimnological data. Diatoms remain one of the least-exploited proxies in Mediterranean palaeoclimate research. Here, we present results of diatom analysis of an 18 m sediment core from Lake Kinneret (Israel) as part of a multi-proxy study of Holocene climate change and human impact in the Levant (http://www.sfb806.uni-koeln.de). Results are compared with other proxy data including pollen, and with output data from regional climate modelling, to strengthen interpretation of environmental change in the southeastern Mediterranean. The results show remarkable shifts in the diatom flora over the last ca. 8,000 years. Preliminary investigations show that 98% of the diatom taxa can be classified as oligohalobous-indifferent and as alkaliphilous, as is typical of freshwater, alkaline lakes of open hydrology in limestone, karst-dominated catchments. Changes in the diatom data over time can be interpreted mainly in terms of productivity shifts, with a clear trend from oligotrophic at the base to hypereutrophic in the modern lake. The eutrophication trend accelerates after ca. 3,000 cal. yrs. BP, indicating the influence of increased human activity in the catchment, identified previously by analysis of the vegetational history (Schiebel, 2013). The analysis of the composition of the diatom flora also provides some evidence for lake-level fluctuations, as a proxy for shifts in moisture availability. Low lake-level stands are characterized by low diatom concentration and increased relative abundance of littoral taxa. High lake-level stands are marked by the clear dominance of planktonic species, such as Cyclotella ocellata PANTOCSEK and Cyclotella paleo-ocellata VOSSEL & VAN DE VIJVER (a newly described centric diatom which may be endemic (Vossel et al., 2015), in phases of high diatom concentration. Such inferred lake-level oscillations correlate well with the output from the climatic models from the Levant region, representing changes in moisture availability (Litt et al., 2012), although the signal is obscured in the last 3,000 years by the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication. References Litt, T.; Ohlwein, C.; Neumann, F. H.; Hense, A. & Stein, M. (2012): Holocene climate variability in the Levant from the Dead Sea pollen record. - Quat. Sci. Rev., 49: 95-105. Schiebel, V. (2013): Vegetation and climate history of the southern Levant during the last 30,000 years based on palynological investigation. - Unpublished PhD thesis. Vossel, H.; Reed, J. M.; Houk, V.; Cvetkoska, A. & Van de Vijver, B. (2015): Cyclotella paleo-ocellata, a new centric diatom (Bacillariophyta) from Lake Kinneret (Israel). Fottea, 15 (1), in press.

Live coral cover in the fossil record: an example from Holocene reefs of the Dominican Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lescinsky, H.; Titus, B.; Hubbard, D.

2012-06-01

Fossil reefs hold important ecological information that can provide a prehuman baseline for understanding recent anthropogenic changes in reefs systems. The most widely used proxy for reef "health," however, is live coral cover, and this has not been quantified in the fossil record because it is difficult to establish that even adjacent corals were alive at the same time. This study uses microboring and taphonomic proxies to differentiate between live and dead corals along well-defined time surfaces in Holocene reefs of the Enriquillo Valley, Dominican Republic. At Cañada Honda, live coral cover ranged from 59 to 80% along a contemporaneous surface buried by a storm layer, and the reef, as a whole had 33-80% live cover within the branching, mixed, massive and platy zones. These values equal or exceed those in the Dominican Republic and Caribbean today or reported decades ago. The values from the western Dominican Republic provide a geologic baseline against which modern anthropogenic changes in Caribbean reefs can be considered.

A multi-year comparison of IPCI scores for prairie pothole wetlands: implications of temporal and spatial variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euliss, Ned H.; Mushet, David M.

2011-01-01

In the prairie pothole region of North America, development of Indices of Biotic Integrity (IBIs) to detect anthropogenic impacts on wetlands has been hampered by naturally dynamic inter-annual climate fluctuations. Of multiple efforts to develop IBIs for prairie pothole wetlands, only one, the Index of Plant Community Integrity (IPCI), has reported success. We evaluated the IPCI and its ability to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic variation using plant community data collected from 16 wetlands over a 4-year-period. We found that under constant anthropogenic influence, IPCI metric scores and condition ratings varied annually in response to environmental variation driven primarily by natural climate variation. Artificially forcing wetlands that occur along continuous hydrologic gradients into a limited number of discrete classes (e.g., temporary, seasonal, and semi-permanent) further confounded the utility of IPCI metrics. Because IPCI scores vary significantly due to natural climate dynamics as well as human impacts, methodology must be developed that adequately partitions natural and anthropogenically induced variation along continuous hydrologic gradients. Until such methodology is developed, the use of the IPCI to evaluate prairie pothole wetlands creates potential for misdirected corrective or regulatory actions, impairment of natural wetland functional processes, and erosion of public confidence in the wetland sciences.

Oral health-related quality of life in youth receiving cleft-related surgery: self-report and proxy ratings.

PubMed

Broder, Hillary L; Wilson-Genderson, Maureen; Sischo, Lacey

2017-04-01

This paper evaluated the impact of cleft-related surgery on the oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) of youth with cleft over time. Data were derived from a 5-year, multi-center, prospective, longitudinal study of 1196 youth with cleft lip and/or palate and their caregivers. Eligible youth were between 7.5 and 18.5 years old, spoke English or Spanish, and were non-syndromic. During each observational period, which included baseline, and 1- and 2-year post-baseline follow-up visits, youths and their caregivers completed the Child Oral Health Impact Profile, a validated measure of OHRQoL. Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to analyze the effects of receipt of craniofacial surgery on OHRQoL over time. During the course of this study a total of 516 patients (43 %) received at least one surgery. Youth in the surgery recommendation group had lower self- (β = -2.18, p < 0.05) and proxy-rated (β = -2.92, p < 0.02) OHRQoL when compared to non-surgical self- and proxy-rated OHRQoL at baseline. Both surgical and non-surgical youth (β = 3.73, p < 0.001) and caregiver (β = 1.91, p < 0.05) ratings of OHRQoL improved over time. There was significant incremental improvement (time × surgery interaction) in self-reported OHRQoL for youth postsurgery (β = 1.04, p < 0.05), but this postsurgery increment was not seen in the caregiver proxy ratings. Surgical intervention impacts OHRQoL among youth with cleft. Youth who were surgical candidates had lower baseline self- and caregiver-rated OHRQoL when compared to non-surgical youth. Youth who underwent cleft-related surgery had significant incremental improvements in self-rated but not caregiver (proxy)-rated OHRQoL after surgery.

Human Activity Determines the Presence of Integron-Associated and Antibiotic Resistance Genes in Southwestern British Columbia.

PubMed

Uyaguari-Díaz, Miguel I; Croxen, Matthew A; Luo, Zhiyao; Cronin, Kirby I; Chan, Michael; Baticados, Waren N; Nesbitt, Matthew J; Li, Shaorong; Miller, Kristina M; Dooley, Damion; Hsiao, William; Isaac-Renton, Judith L; Tang, Patrick; Prystajecky, Natalie

2018-01-01

The dissemination of antibiotic resistant bacteria from anthropogenic sources into the environment poses an emerging public health threat. Antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and gene-capturing systems such as integron-associated integrase genes ( intI ) play a key role in alterations of microbial communities and the spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria into the environment. In order to assess the effect of anthropogenic activities on watersheds in southwestern British Columbia, the presence of putative antibiotic resistance and integrase genes was analyzed in the microbiome of agricultural, urban influenced, and protected watersheds. A metagenomics approach and high-throughput quantitative PCR (HT qPCR) were used to screen for elements of resistance including ARGs and intI . Metagenomic sequencing of bacterial genomic DNA was used to characterize the resistome of microbial communities present in watersheds over a 1-year period. There was a low prevalence of ARGs relative to the microbial population (<1%). Analysis of the metagenomic sequences detected a total of 60 elements of resistance including 46 ARGs, intI1 , and groEL/ intI1 genes and 12 quaternary ammonium compounds ( qac ) resistance genes across all watershed locations. The relative abundance and richness of ARGs was found to be highest in agriculture impacted watersheds compared to urban and protected watersheds. A downstream transport pattern was observed in the impacted watersheds (urban and agricultural) during dry months. Similar to other reports, this study found a strong association between intI1 and ARGs (e.g., sul1 ), an association which may be used as a proxy for anthropogenic activities. Chemical analysis of water samples for three major groups of antibiotics was below the detection limit. However, the high richness and gene copy numbers (GCNs) of ARGs in impacted sites suggest that the effects of effluents on microbial communities are occurring even at low concentrations of antimicrobials in the water column. Antibiotic resistance and integrase genes in a year-long metagenomic study showed that ARGs were driven mainly by environmental factors from anthropogenized sites in agriculture and urban watersheds. Environmental factors such as land-use and water quality parameters accounted for 45% of the variability observed in watershed locations.

Human Activity Determines the Presence of Integron-Associated and Antibiotic Resistance Genes in Southwestern British Columbia

PubMed Central

Uyaguari-Díaz, Miguel I.; Croxen, Matthew A.; Luo, Zhiyao; Cronin, Kirby I.; Chan, Michael; Baticados, Waren N.; Nesbitt, Matthew J.; Li, Shaorong; Miller, Kristina M.; Dooley, Damion; Hsiao, William; Isaac-Renton, Judith L.; Tang, Patrick; Prystajecky, Natalie

2018-01-01

The dissemination of antibiotic resistant bacteria from anthropogenic sources into the environment poses an emerging public health threat. Antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and gene-capturing systems such as integron-associated integrase genes (intI) play a key role in alterations of microbial communities and the spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria into the environment. In order to assess the effect of anthropogenic activities on watersheds in southwestern British Columbia, the presence of putative antibiotic resistance and integrase genes was analyzed in the microbiome of agricultural, urban influenced, and protected watersheds. A metagenomics approach and high-throughput quantitative PCR (HT qPCR) were used to screen for elements of resistance including ARGs and intI. Metagenomic sequencing of bacterial genomic DNA was used to characterize the resistome of microbial communities present in watersheds over a 1-year period. There was a low prevalence of ARGs relative to the microbial population (<1%). Analysis of the metagenomic sequences detected a total of 60 elements of resistance including 46 ARGs, intI1, and groEL/intI1 genes and 12 quaternary ammonium compounds (qac) resistance genes across all watershed locations. The relative abundance and richness of ARGs was found to be highest in agriculture impacted watersheds compared to urban and protected watersheds. A downstream transport pattern was observed in the impacted watersheds (urban and agricultural) during dry months. Similar to other reports, this study found a strong association between intI1 and ARGs (e.g., sul1), an association which may be used as a proxy for anthropogenic activities. Chemical analysis of water samples for three major groups of antibiotics was below the detection limit. However, the high richness and gene copy numbers (GCNs) of ARGs in impacted sites suggest that the effects of effluents on microbial communities are occurring even at low concentrations of antimicrobials in the water column. Antibiotic resistance and integrase genes in a year-long metagenomic study showed that ARGs were driven mainly by environmental factors from anthropogenized sites in agriculture and urban watersheds. Environmental factors such as land-use and water quality parameters accounted for 45% of the variability observed in watershed locations. PMID:29765365

Combining chemometric tools for assessing hazard sources and factors acting simultaneously in contaminated areas. Case study: "Mar Piccolo" Taranto (South Italy).

PubMed

Mali, Matilda; Dell'Anna, Maria Michela; Notarnicola, Michele; Damiani, Leonardo; Mastrorilli, Piero

2017-10-01

Almost all marine coastal ecosystems possess complex structural and dynamic characteristics, which are influenced by anthropogenic causes and natural processes as well. Revealing the impact of sources and factors controlling the spatial distributions of contaminants within highly polluted areas is a fundamental propaedeutic step of their quality evaluation. Combination of different pattern recognition techniques, applied to one of the most polluted Mediterranean coastal basin, resulted in a more reliable hazard assessment. PCA/CA and factorial ANOVA were exploited as complementary techniques for apprehending the impact of multi-sources and multi-factors acting simultaneously and leading to similarities or differences in the spatial contamination pattern. The combination of PCA/CA and factorial ANOVA allowed, on one hand to determine the main processes and factors controlling the contamination trend within different layers and different basins, and, on the other hand, to ascertain possible synergistic effects. This approach showed the significance of a spatially representative overview given by the combination of PCA-CA/ANOVA in inferring the historical anthropogenic sources loading on the area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shell alterations in limpets as putative biomarkers for multi-impacted coastal areas.

PubMed

Begliomini, Felipe Nincao; Maciel, Daniele Claudino; de Almeida, Sérgio Mendonça; Abessa, Denis Moledo; Maranho, Luciane Alves; Pereira, Camilo Seabra; Yogui, Gilvan Takeshi; Zanardi-Lamardo, Eliete; Castro, Ítalo Braga

2017-07-01

During the last years, shell alterations in gastropods have been proposed as tools to be used in monitoring programs. However, no studies were so far performed investigating the relationships among shell parameters and classical biomarkers of damage. The relationship between shell alterations (biometrics, shape and elemental composition) and biomarkers (LPO and DNA strand break) was evaluated in the limpet L. subrugosa sampled along a contamination gradient in a multi-impacted coastal zone from southeastern Brazil. Statistically significant differences were detected among sites under different pollution levels. The occurrence of shell malformations was consistent with environmental levels of several hazardous substances reported for the studied area and related to lipid peroxidation and DNA damage. In addition, considering the low mobility, wide geographic distribution, ease of collection and abundance of limpets in coastal zones, this putative tool may be a cost-effective alternative to traditional biomarkers. Thus, shell alterations in limpets seem to be good proxies for assessing biological adverse effects in multi-impacted coastal zones. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene climate variability in the Eifel region evaluated with stable isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühl, Norbert; Moschen, Robert; Wagner, Stefanie

2010-05-01

Pollen as well as stable isotopes have great potential as climate proxy data. While variability in these proxy data is frequently assumed to reflect climate variability, other factors than climate, including human impact and statistical noise, can often not be excluded as primary cause for the observed variability. Multiproxy studies offer the opportunity to test different drivers by providing different lines of evidence for environmental change such as climate variability and human impact. In this multiproxy study we use pollen and peat humification to evaluate to which extent stable oxygen and carbon isotope series from the peat bog "Dürres Maar" reflect human impact rather than climate variability. For times before strong anthropogenic vegetation change, isotope series from Dürres Maar were used to validate quantitative reconstructions based on pollen. Our study site is the kettle hole peat bog "Dürres Maar" in the Eifel low mountain range, Germany (450m asl), which grew 12m during the last 10,000 years. Pollen was analysed with a sum of at least 1000 terrestrial pollen grains throughout the profile to minimize statistical effects on the reconstructions. A recently developed probabilistic indicator taxa method ("pdf-method") was used for the quantitative climate estimates (January and July temperature) based on pollen. For isotope analysis, attention was given to use monospecific Sphagnum leaves whenever possible, reducing the potential of a species effect and any potential artefact that can originate from selective degradation of different morphological parts of Sphagnum plants (Moschen et al., 2009). Pollen at "Dürres Maar" reflect the variable and partly strong human impact on vegetation during the last 4000 years. Stable isotope time series were apparently not influenced by human impact at this site. This highlights the potential of stable isotope investigations from peat for climatic interpretation, because stable isotope series from lacustrine sediments might strongly react to anthropogenic deforestation, as carbon isotope time series from the adjacent Lake Holzmaar suggest. Reconstructions based on pollen with the pdf-method are robust to the human impact during the last 4000 years, but do not reproduce the fine scale climate variability that can be derived from the stable isotope series (Kühl et al., in press). In contrast, reconstructions on the basis of pollen data show relatively pronounced climate variability (here: January temperature) during the Mid-Holocene, which is known from many other European records. The oxygen isotope time series as available now indicate that at least some of the observed variability indeed reflects climate variability. However, stable carbon isotopes show little concordance. At this stage our results point in the direction that 1) the isotopic composition might reflect a shift in influencing factors during the Holocene, 2) climate trends can robustly be reconstructed with the pdf method and 3) fine scale climate variability can potentially be reconstructed using the pdf-method, given that climate sensitive taxa at their distribution limit are present. The latter two conclusions are of particular importance for the reconstruction of climatic trends and variability of interglacials older than the Holocene, when sites are rare and pollen is often the only suitable proxy in terrestrial records. Kühl, N., Moschen, R., Wagner, S., Brewer, S., Peyron, O., in press. A multiproxy record of Late Holocene natural and anthropogenic environmental change from the Sphagnum peat bog Dürres Maar, Germany: implications for quantitative climate reconstructions based on pollen. J. Quat. Sci., DOI: 10.1002/jqs.1342. Available online. Moschen, R., Kühl, N., Rehberger, I., Lücke, A., 2009. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in sub-fossil Sphagnum: Assessment of their applicability for palaeoclimatology. Chemical Geology 259, 262-272.

An Examination of Long-Term Environmental-Social Dynamics in the Balkans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulkarni, C.; Boger, R. A.

2015-12-01

This study examines the interactions of environmental and social dynamics in Central Balkans over the past millennium, a period that experienced three major climatic phases (Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and the warm 20th century). Meanwhile, the same period witnessed a complex human history with the emergence-rise-decline of the Ottoman Empire and subsequent socio-political events (e.g. wars, famines, migrations). Environmental datasets for the analysis include biological proxies (pollen, spores, and charcoal), geochemical signals through X-ray fluorescence (XRF), and a detailed chronology based on AMS 14C dating of two western and central Serbian lakes while social datasets include historic population data, land use, settlement patterns, and critical historic events derived from a review of the literature and local archives. Among the environmental datasets, indigenous tree and herbaceous pollen from these Central Balkans records demonstrate fluctuations in woodland-grassland dynamics whereas potassium and titanium counts obtained through XRF act as a proxy for surface erosion and clastic input into the lakes. Microscopic charcoal, cereal pollen and subordinate anthropogenic pollen (e.g. cultivated fruits and vegetables) are used to distinguish strong human impact over the landscape. These key anthropogenic indicators create a more thorough social component of the analysis in association with the social datasets. After reconstructing the individual time series for each environmental and social dataset, the two Central Balkan records are correlated in order to identify the environmental and social homogeneity and heterogeneity patterns occurring at shorter and longer timescales during the period. Results provide insights on how a region responds to social and environmental stressors and our approach demonstrates ways to integrate natural and social science system research.

A New Quantum Proxy Multi-signature Scheme Using Maximally Entangled Seven-Qubit States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hai-Jing; Zhang, Jia-Fu; Liu, Jian; Li, Zeng-You

2016-02-01

In this paper, we propose a new secure quantum proxy multi-signature scheme using seven-qubit entangled quantum state as quantum channels, which may have applications in e-payment system, e-government, e-business, etc. This scheme is based on controlled quantum teleportation. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to guarantee its anonymity, verifiability, traceability, unforgetability and undeniability.

Urban-rural variations in air quality and health impacts in northern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karambelas, A. N.; Holloway, T.; Fiore, A. M.; Kinney, P.; DeFries, R. S.; Kiesewetter, G.; Heyes, C.

2017-12-01

Ambient air pollution in India is a severe problem, contributing to negative health impacts and early death. Ground-based monitors often used to quantify health impacts are often located in urban regions, however approximately 70% of India's population resides in rural areas. We use high-resolution concentrations from the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model over densely-populated northern India to estimate air quality and health impacts due to anthropogenic emission sectors separately for urban and rural regions. Modeled concentrations inform relative risk calculations and exposure estimates as performed in the Global Burden of Disease. Anthropogenic emissions from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model following version 5a of the Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants project gridding structure are updated to reflect urban- and rural-specific activity information for transportation and residential combustion, and industrial and electrical generating unit location and magnitude information. We estimate 314,000 (95% Confidence Interval: 304,000—323,000) and 58,000 (CI: 39,000—70,000) adults (25 years or older) die prematurely each year from PM2.5 and O3 respectively in northern India, with the greatest impacts along the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Using urban and rural population distributions, we estimate that the majority of premature deaths resulting from PM2.5 and O3 are in rural (292,000) as opposed to urban (79,000) regions. These findings indicate the need for designing monitoring networks and ground-based health studies in rural areas of India to more accurately quantify the true health implications of ambient air pollution, in addition to supporting model evaluation. Using this urban-versus-rural emissions framework, we are assessing anthropogenic contributions to regional air quality and health impacts, and examining mitigation strategies to reduce anthropogenic emissions, improve air quality, and reduce PM2.5 and O3 attributable premature death in the near-term.

Fire, Ice and Water: Glaciologic, Paleoclimate and Anthropogenic Linkages During Past Mega-Droughts in the Uinta Mountains, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, M. J.; Rupper, S.; Codding, B.; Schaefer, J.; Hess, M.

2017-12-01

Alpine glaciers provide a valuable water source during prolonged drought events. We explore whether long-term climate dynamics and associated glacier changes within mountain drainage basins and adjacent landscapes ultimately influence how prehistoric human populations choose settlement locations. The Uinta Mountains of Utah, with a steep present-day precipitation gradient from the lowlands to the alpine zone of 20-100 cm per year, has a rich glacial history related to natural and anthropogenic climate variability. Here we examine how past climate variability has impacted glaciers and ultimately the availability of water over long timescales, and how these changes affected human settlement and subsistence decisions. Through a combination of geomorphologic evidence, paleoclimate proxies, and glacier and climate modelling, we test the hypothesis that glacier-charged hydrologic systems buffer prehistoric populations during extreme drought periods, facilitating long-term landscape management with fire. Initial field surveys suggest middle- and low-elevation glacial valleys contain glacially-derived sediment from meltwater and resulted in terraced river channels and outwash plains visible today. These terraces provide estimates of river discharge during varying stages of glacier advance and retreat. Archaeological evidence from middle- and high-elevations in the Uinta Mountains suggests human populations persisted through periods of dramatic climate change, possibly linked to the persistence of glacially-derived water resources through drought periods. Paleoenvironmental records indicate a long history of fire driven by the combined interaction of climatic variation and human disturbance. This research highlights the important role of moisture variability determining human settlement patterns and landscape management throughout time, and has direct relevance to the impacts of anthropogenic precipitation and glacier changes on vulnerable populations in the coming century, especially in drought-prone regions.

Organic Geochemistry of the Tohoku Tsunami Deposits of 2011 (Japan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reicherter, K. R.; Schwarzbauer, J.; Szczucinski, W.; Jaffe, B. E.

2014-12-01

Geochemical investigations on paleotsunami deposits have mainly focused on inorganic proxies. Organic geochemistry has been used to distinguish between terrestrial and marine matter within the sediments, reflecting the mixture and transport of marine and terrestrial matter. The approach using organic substances with indicative properties (anthropogenic and xenobiotic compounds) for recent tsunami deposits is novel, but the approach of using specific bio- and anthropogenic markers indicators to determine (pre)historic and recent processes and impacts already exists. The Tohoku-oki tsunami in March 2011 showed the huge threat that tsunamis pose to society and landscape, including flooding of coastal lowlands and erosion/deposition of sediments. The mainly sandy tsunamites reach more than 4.5 km inland as there were run-up heights of ca. 10 m in the Sendai plain near the Sendai airport. The destruction of infrastructure by wave action and flooding was accompanied by the release of environmental pollutants (e.g. fuels, fats, tarmac, plastics, heavy metals, etc.) contaminating the coastal areas and ocean over large areas. To detect and characterize this process, we analyzed several sedimentary archives from the Bay of Sendai area (by using the same sample material as Szczucinski et al., 2012 from rice paddies of the Sendai Plain, Japan). The layers representing the tsunami deposits have been compared with pre-tsunami samples (supposedly to be unaffected) by means of organic-geochemical analyses based on GC/MS. Natural compounds and their diagenetic transformation products have been tested as marker compounds and proxies. The relative composition of fatty acids, n-alkanes, sesquiterpenes and further substances pointed to significant variations before and after the tsunami event. Additionally, anthropogenic marker compounds (such as soil derived pesticides, source specific PAHs, halogenated aromatics from industrial sources) have been detected and quantified. Concentration profiles of distinct terrestrial pollutants revealed shifts either to increasing but for selected compounds also to decreasing contamination levels. We will extend and test the approach in future on paleotsunami deposits of the 869 AD Jogan event and others. Szczucinski et al. 2012, Sed. Geol., 282:40-56.

Late Holocene anthropogenic and climatic influences on the regional vegetation of Mexico's Cuenca Oriental

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Tripti; Byrne, Roger

2016-03-01

Scholars continue to debate the relative magnitude of pre- and post-Conquest anthropogenic landscape transformation in many regions of Mesoamerica. These debates have important implications for our understanding of the role of anthropogenic practices in the development, or at times degradation, of regional environments. Paleoecological records that provide long-term perspectives on climate change and human land-use patterns are critical to addressing these uncertainties. However, many regions of Mexico including the Cuenca Oriental, a semi-arid basin in the rain shadow of the Sierra Madre Oriental, remain poorly studied. We present a new paleoecological record from sediment cores recovered from Lake Aljojuca, located in the southern part of the basin. Stable isotope analyses of authigenic carbonates provide an independent record of past climate, while pollen and microscopic charcoal provide insights into past vegetation and fire history. The Aljojuca record is one of the only well-dated multi-proxy paleolimnological records from the Cuenca Oriental, and is one of few charcoal studies from highland Mexico. Zea mays pollen and increased fire activity at 2700 calendar years before present (cal yr. BP) suggest Formative period human settlement around the lake. Between 1700 and 800 cal yr BP, a drying climate combined with human uses of fire likely resulted in increases in the extent of xeric scrub vegetation. The Aljojuca record also documents important landscape changes during the historic period ( 430 cal yr. BP-present) likely related to the introduction of invasive species and agricultural intensification. The Aljojuca record provides a unique perspective on human-environment relationships and highlights differences between landscape transformations in the pre- and post-Conquest periods.

Climate variability and human impact on the environment in South America during the last 2000 years: synthesis and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flantua, S. G. A.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Vuille, M.; Behling, H.; Carson, J. F.; Gosling, W. D.; Hoyos, I.; Ledru, M. P.; Montoya, E.; Mayle, F.; Maldonado, A.; Rull, V.; Tonello, M. S.; Whitney, B. S.; González-Arango, C.

2015-07-01

An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past two millennia. Global efforts to reconstruct regional climate modes are in the process of validating and integrating paleo-proxies. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to its unknown spatial and temporal coverage. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last two millennia. We identify the pollen records with the required temporal characteristics for PAGES-2 ka climate modelling and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local scale responses to climate modes, thus it is necessary to understand how vegetation-climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. Evidence for human land use in pollen records is useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. The LOTRED-SA-2 k initiative provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various paleoclimatic sub-disciplines and paleo-science, thereby jumpstarting and fostering multi-disciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial time scales.

Sediment delivery and lake dynamics in a Mediterranean mountain watershed: Human-climate interactions during the last millennium (El Tobar Lake record, Iberian Range, Spain).

PubMed

Barreiro-Lostres, Fernando; Brown, Erik; Moreno, Ana; Morellón, Mario; Abbott, Mark; Hillman, Aubrey; Giralt, Santiago; Valero-Garcés, Blas

2015-11-15

Land degradation and soil erosion are key environmental problems in Mediterranean mountains characterized by a long history of human occupation and a strong variability of hydrological regimes. To assess recent trends and evaluate climatic and anthropogenic impacts in these highly human modified watersheds we apply an historical approach combining lake sediment core multi-proxy analyses and reconstructions of past land uses to El Tobar Lake watershed, located in the Iberian Range (Central Spain). Four main periods of increased sediment delivery have been identified in the 8m long sediment sequence by their depositional and geochemical signatures. They took place around 16th, late 18th, mid 19th and early 20th centuries as a result of large land uses changes such as forest clearing, farming and grazing during periods of increasing population. In this highly human-modified watershed, positive synergies between human impact and humid periods led to increased sediment delivery periods. During the last millennium, the lake depositional and geochemical cycles recovered quickly after each sediment delivery event, showing strong resilience of the lacustrine system to watershed disturbance. Recent changes are characterized by large hydrological affections since 1967 with the construction of a canal from a nearby reservoir and a decreased in anthropic pressure in the watershed as rural areas were abandoned. The increased fresh water influx to the lake has caused large biological changes, leading to stronger meromictic conditions and higher organic matter accumulation while terrigenous inputs have decreased. Degradation processes in Iberian Range watersheds are strongly controlled by anthropic activities (land use changes, soil erosion) but modulated by climate-related hydrological changes (water availability, flood and runoff frequency). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantum Proxy Multi-Signature Scheme Using Genuinely Entangled Six Qubits State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hai-Jing; Wang, Huai-Sheng; Li, Peng-Fei

2013-04-01

A quantum proxy multi-signature scheme is presented based on controlled teleportation. Genuinely entangled six qubits quantum state functions as quantum channel. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. Quantum key distribution and one-time pad are adopted in our scheme, which could guarantee not only the unconditional security of the scheme but also the anonymity of the messages owner.

A HTAP Multi-Model Assessment of the Influence of Regional Anthropogenic Emission Reductions on Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing and the Role of Intercontinental Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Hongbin; Chin, Mian; West, J. Jason; Atherton, Cynthia S.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Bergmann, Dan; Bey, Isabelle; Bian, Huisheng; Diehl, Thomas; Forberth, Gerd;

Do patient and proxy agree? Long-term changes in multiple sclerosis physical impact and walking ability on patient-reported outcome scales.

PubMed

Sonder, Judith M; Balk, Lisanne J; Bosma, Libertje V A E; Polman, Chris H; Uitdehaag, Bernard M J

2014-10-01

Patient-reported outcome scales (PROs) are useful in monitoring changes in multiple sclerosis (MS) over time. Although these scales are reliable and valid measures in longitudinal studies in MS patients, it is unknown what the impact is when obtaining longitudinal data from proxies. The objective of this paper is to compare longitudinal changes in patient and proxy responses on PROs assessing physical impact of MS and walking ability. In a prospective observational study, data on the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29 physical) and Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale (MSWS-12) were obtained from 137 patient-proxy couples at baseline and at two-year follow-up. Demographic and disease-related variables explaining agreement or disagreement between patients and proxies were investigated using linear regression analyses. Full agreement was found in 56% (MSIS) and 62% (MSWS) of the patient-proxy couples. Complete disagreement was very rare for both scales (2% MSIS, 5% MSWS). When patients were more positive than proxies, a higher age, longer disease duration, longer patient-proxy relationship and increased levels of depression, anxiety and caregiver burden in proxies were observed. In the majority of the patient-proxy couples there was agreement. Proxies can serve as a valuable source of information, but caution remains essential when using scores from proxies. © The Author(s), 2014.

Multi-Purpose, Application-Centric, Scalable I/O Proxy Application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, M. C.

2015-06-15

MACSio is a Multi-purpose, Application-Centric, Scalable I/O proxy application. It is designed to support a number of goals with respect to parallel I/O performance testing and benchmarking including the ability to test and compare various I/O libraries and I/O paradigms, to predict scalable performance of real applications and to help identify where improvements in I/O performance can be made within the HPC I/O software stack.

High storage rates of anthropogenic CO_{2} in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murata, Akihiko; Kumamoto, Yu-ichiro; Sasaki, Ken-ichi

2017-04-01

Using high-quality data for CO2-system and related properties collected 17 years apart through international observation programs, we examined decadal-scale increases of anthropogenic CO2 along a zonal section at nominal 62˚ S ranging from 30˚ E to 160˚ E in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast to previous studies, increases of anthropogenic CO2 were largest (> 9.0 μmol kg-1) in Antarctic Bottom Water, where little storage of anthropogenic CO2 has been reported. Significant increases of anthropogenic CO2 in bottom and/or deep waters were detected through the section, although they became reduced in magnitude and depth range west of 110˚ E. Vertical distributions of anthropogenic CO2 showed significant positive correlations with decadal-scale changes in CFC-12, a proxy of circulation and ventilation, meaning that the distributions were mainly controlled by physical processes. Comparison of increases of anthropogenic CO2 between calculation methods with and without total alkalinity presented differences of increases of anthropogenic CO2west of 50˚ E. This is probably because decreases in production of particulate inorganic carbons in the Southern Ocean. The highest storage rate of anthropogenic CO2 was estimated to be 1.1 ± 0.6 mol m-2 a-1 at longitudes 130˚ -160˚ E. The results highlight storage rates higher than ever reported in the Southern Ocean, where very low storage of anthropogenic CO2 has been evidenced.

A fluvial record of the mid-Holocene rapid climatic changes in the middle Rhone valley (Espeluche-Lalo, France) and of their impact on Late Mesolithic and Early Neolithic societies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Jean-François; Delhon, Claire; Magnin, Frédéric; Bonté, Sandrine; Peyric, Dominique; Thiébault, Stéphanie; Guilbert, Raphaele; Beeching, Alain

2016-03-01

This multi-proxy study of a small floodplain in the Rhone catchment area, at the northern edge of the Mediterranean morphoclimatic system, provides valuable information concerning the impact of mid-Holocene climate variability (8.5-7.0 ka) and the effects of two rapid climatic changes (8.2 and 7.7/7.1 ka) on an alluvial plain, its basin and the first farming societies of the Rhone valley. Around 7.7/7.1 ka, the combined effects of (1) a strong rate of change in insolation and (2) variations in solar activity amplified marine and atmospheric circulation in the north-west Atlantic (Bond event 5b), which imply continental hydrological, soil and vegetation changes in the small catchment area. For this period, strong fluctuations in the plant cover ratio have been identified, related to a regime of sustained and regular fires, as well as abundant erosion of the hill slopes and frequent fluvial metamorphoses which led to braiding of the watercourse in this floodplain. There are few data available to evaluate the impact of natural events on prehistoric communities. This continental archive offers clear multi-proxy data for discussion of these aspects, having 4 cultural layers interbedded in the fluvial sequence (1 Late Mesolithic, 3 Cardial/Epicardial). Earlier data indicate the difficulty in recognizing such cultural features in the low alluvial plains of southern France during the Mesolithic/Early Neolithic transition, which should lead to caution when developing settlement models for this period.

Anthropogenically induced environmental changes in the northeastern Adriatic Sea in the last 500 years (Panzano Bay, Gulf of Trieste)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidović, Jelena; Nawrot, Rafał; Gallmetzer, Ivo; Haselmair, Alexandra; Tomašových, Adam; Stachowitsch, Michael; Ćosović, Vlasta; Zuschin, Martin

2016-11-01

Shallow and sheltered marine embayments in urbanized areas are prone to the accumulation of pollutants, but little is known about the historical baselines of such marine ecosystems. Here we study foraminiferal assemblages, geochemical proxies and sedimentological data from 1.6 m long sediment cores to uncover ˜ 500 years of anthropogenic pressure from mining, port and industrial activities in the Gulf of Trieste, Italy. From 1600 to 1900 AD, normalized element concentrations and foraminiferal assemblages point to negligible effects of agricultural activities. The only significant anthropogenic activity during this period was mercury mining in the hinterlands of the gulf, releasing high amounts of mercury into the bay and significantly exceeding the standards on the effects of trace elements on benthic organisms. Nonetheless, the fluctuations in the concentrations of mercury do not correlate with changes in the composition and diversity of foraminiferal assemblages due to its non-bioavailability. Intensified agricultural and maricultural activities in the first half of the 20th century caused slight nutrient enrichment and a minor increase in foraminiferal diversity. Intensified port and industrial activities in the second half of 20th century increased the normalized trace element concentrations and persistent organic pollutants (PAH, PCB) in the topmost part of the core. This increase caused only minor changes in the foraminiferal community because foraminifera in Panzano Bay have a long history of adaptation to elevated trace element concentrations. Our study underlines the importance of using an integrated, multidisciplinary approach in reconstructing the history of environmental and anthropogenic changes in marine systems. Given the prolonged human impacts in coastal areas like the Gulf of Trieste, such long-term baseline data are crucial for interpreting the present state of marine ecosystems.

Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, A. G.; Guo, L.; Highwood, E.

2016-12-01

The HadGEM2 AGCM is used to determine the most important anthropogenic aerosols in the Indian monsoon using experiments in which observed trends in individual aerosol species are imposed. Sulphur dioxide (SD) emissions are shown to impact rainfall more strongly than black carbon (BC) aerosols, causing reduced rainfall especially over northern India. Significant perturbations due to BC are not noted until its emissions are scaled up in a sensitivity test, resulting in rainfall increases over northern India due to the Elevated Heat Pump mechanism, enhancing convection during the premonsoon and bringing forward the monsoon onset. Secondly, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols is compared to that of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and observed sea-surface temperature (SST) warming. The tropospheric temperature gradient driving the monsoon shows weakening when forced by either SD or imposed SST trends. However the observed SST trend is dominated by warming in the deep tropics; when the component of SST trend related to aerosol emissions is removed, further warming is found in the extratropical northern hemisphere that tends to offset monsoon weakening. This suggests caution is needed when using SST forcing as a proxy for greenhouse warming. Finally, aerosol emissions are decomposed into those from the Indian region and those elsewhere, in pairs of experiments with SD and BC. Both local and remote aerosol emissions are found to lead to rainfall changes over India; for SD, remote aerosols contribute around 75% of the rainfall decrease over India, while for BC the remote forcing is even more dominant.

Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Liang; Turner, Andrew; Highwood, Eleanor

2016-04-01

The HadGEM2 AGCM is used to determine the most important anthropogenic aerosols in the Indian monsoon using experiments in which observed trends in individual aerosol species are imposed. Sulphur dioxide (SD) emissions are shown to impact rainfall more strongly than black carbon (BC) aerosols, causing reduced rainfall especially over northern India. Significant perturbations due to BC are not noted until its emissions are scaled up in a sensitivity test, in which rainfall increases over northern India as a result of the Elevated Heat Pump mechanism, enhancing convection during the pre-monsoon and bringing forward the monsoon onset. Secondly, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols is compared to that of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and observed sea-surface temperature (SST) warming. The tropospheric temperature gradient driving the monsoon shows weakening when forced by either SD or imposed SST trends. However the observed SST trend is dominated by warming in the deep tropics; when the component of SST trend related to aerosol emissions is removed, further warming is found in the extratropical northern hemisphere that tends to offset monsoon weakening. This suggests caution is needed when using SST forcing as a proxy for greenhouse warming. Finally, aerosol emissions are decomposed into those from the Indian region and those elsewhere, in pairs of experiments with SD and BC. Both local and remote aerosol emissions are found to lead to rainfall changes over India; for SD, remote aerosols contribute around 75% of the rainfall decrease over India, while for BC the remote forcing is even more dominant.

Reconstructing the history of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation using high-resolution Mg/Ca paleothermometry from a Cariaco Basin core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurtzel, J. B.; Black, D. E.; Rahman, S.; Thunell, R.; Peterson, L. C.; Tappa, E.

2010-12-01

Instrumental and proxy-reconstructions show the existence of an approximately 70-year periodicity in Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO is correlated with circum-tropical Atlantic climate phenomena such as Sahel and Nordeste rainfall, and Atlantic hurricane patterns. Though it has been suggested that the AMO is controlled by thermohaline circulation, much debate exists as to whether the SST fluctuations are a result of anthropogenic forcing or a natural climate mode, or even if the AMO is a true oscillation at all. Our ability to address this issue has been limited by instrumental SST records that rarely extend back more than 50-100 years and proxy reconstructions that are mostly terrestrial-based. Additionally, the modern instrumental variability likely contains an anthropogenic component that is not easily distinguished from the natural background of the system. From a marine sediment core taken in the Cariaco Basin, we have developed a high-resolution SST reconstruction for the past ca. 1500 years using Mg/Ca paleothermometry on seasonally-representative foraminifera, with the most recent data calibrated to the instrumental record. Previous studies have shown Cariaco Basin Mg/Ca-SSTs to be well-correlated to the Caribbean Sea and much of the western tropical Atlantic, which allows us to create a record that can be used to determine pre-anthropogenic rates and ranges of SST variability and observe how they change over time. Averaging the seasonal temperatures derived from the two foraminiferal species over the instrumental period yields a strong correlation to the AMO index from A. D. 1880 through 1970 (r = 0.44, p<0.0001). Wavelet analysis of the proxy average annual SST data indicates that modern AMO variability is not a consistent feature through time, and may be a function of warm-period climate.

Comparative modeling of Bronze Age land use in the Malatya Plain (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arıkan, Bülent; Restelli, Francesca Balossi; Masi, Alessia

2016-03-01

Computational modeling in archeology has proven to be a useful tool in quantifying changes in the paleoenvironment. This especially useful method combines data from diverse disciplines to answer questions focusing on the complex and non-linear aspects of human-environment interactions. The research presented here uses various proxy records to compare the changes in climate during the Bronze Age in the Malatya Plain in eastern Anatolia, which is situated at the northern extremity of northern Mesopotamia. Extensive agropastoral land use modeling was applied to three sites of different size and function in the Malatya Plain during the Early Bronze Age I period to simulate the varying scale and intensity of human impacts in relation to changes in the level of social organization, demography, and temporal length. The results suggest that even in land use types subjected to a light footprint, the scale and intensity of anthropogenic impacts change significantly in relation to the level of social organization.

Contribution of Anthropogenic Warming to California Drought During 2012-2014

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, A. Park; Seager, Richard; Abatzoglou, John T.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Edward R.

2015-01-01

A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27 percent of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18 percent in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.

A comprehensive multi-scenario based approach for a reliable flood-hazard assessment: a case-study application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanni, Cristiano; Mazzorana, Bruno; Volcan, Claudio; Bertagnolli, Rudi

2015-04-01

Flood hazard is generally assessed by assuming the return period of the rainfall as a proxy for the return period of the discharge and the related hydrograph. Frequently this deterministic view is extended also to the straightforward application of hydrodynamic models. However, the climate (i.e. precipitation), the catchment (i.e. geology, soil and antecedent soil-moisture condition) and the anthropogenic (i.e. drainage system and its regulation) systems interact in a complex way, and the occurrence probability of a flood inundation event can significantly differ from the occurrence probability of the triggering event (i.e. rainfall). In order to reliably determine the spatial patterns of flood intensities and probabilities, the rigorous determination of flood event scenarios is beneficial because it provides a clear, rationale method to recognize and unveil the inherent stochastic behavior of natural processes. Therefore, a multi-scenario approach for hazard assessment should be applied and should consider the possible events taking place in the area potentially subject to flooding (i.e. floodplains). Here, we apply a multi-scenario approach for the assessment of the flood hazard around the Idro lake (Italy). We consider and estimate the probability of occurrence of several scenarios related to the initial (i.e. initial water level in the lake) and boundary (i.e. shape of the hydrograph, downslope drainage, spillway opening operations) conditions characterizing the lake. Finally, we discuss the advantages and issues of the presented methodological procedure compared to traditional (and essentially deterministic) approaches.

A case for multi-model and multi-approach based event attribution: The 2015 European drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

2017-04-01

Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events such as heat waves or droughts has evolved rapidly over the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence probability of an event in the present, factual world with the probability of the same event in a hypothetical, counterfactual world without human-induced climate change. Every such analysis necessarily faces multiple methodological choices including, but not limited to: the event definition, climate model configuration, and the design of the counterfactual world. Here, we explore the role of such choices for an attribution analysis of the 2015 European summer drought (Hauser et al., in preparation). While some GCMs suggest that anthropogenic forcing made the 2015 drought more likely, others suggest no impact, or even a decrease in the event probability. These results additionally differ for single GCMs, depending on the reference used for the counterfactual world. Observational results do not suggest a historical tendency towards more drying, but the record may be too short to provide robust assessments because of the large interannual variability of drought occurrence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-approach framework in event attribution research. This is especially important for events with low signal to noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts. Hauser, M., L. Gudmundsson, R. Orth, A. Jézéquel, K. Haustein, S.I. Seneviratne, in preparation. A case for multi-model and multi-approach based event attribution: The 2015 European drought.

Continental-scale temperature covariance in proxy reconstructions and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Büntgen, Ulf; Smerdon, Jason; Zorita, Eduardo; Krusic, Paul; Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Schneider, Lea; Esper, Jan

2017-04-01

Inter-continental temperature variability over the past millennium has been reported to be more coherent in climate model simulations than in multi-proxy-based reconstructions, a finding that undermines the representation of spatial variability in either of these approaches. We assess the covariance of summer temperatures among Northern Hemisphere continents by comparing tree-ring based temperature reconstructions with state-of-the-art climate model simulations over the past millennium. We find inter-continental temperature covariance to be larger in tree-ring-only reconstructions compared to those derived from multi-proxy networks, thus enhancing the agreement between proxy- and model-based spatial representations. A detailed comparison of simulated temperatures, however, reveals substantial spread among the models. Over the past millennium, inter-continental temperature correlations are driven by the cooling after major volcanic eruptions in 1257, 1452, 1601, and 1815. The coherence of these synchronizing events appears to be elevated in several climate simulations relative to their own covariance baselines and the proxy reconstructions, suggesting these models overestimate the amplitude of cooling in response to volcanic forcing at large spatial scales.

Estimation of the Relationship Between Remotely Sensed Anthropogenic Heat Discharge and Building Energy Use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Yuyu; Weng, Qihao; Gurney, Kevin R.; Shuai, Yanmin; Hu, Xuefei

2012-01-01

This paper examined the relationship between remotely sensed anthropogenic heat discharge and energy use from residential and commercial buildings across multiple scales in the city of Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. The anthropogenic heat discharge was estimated with a remote sensing-based surface energy balance model, which was parameterized using land cover, land surface temperature, albedo, and meteorological data. The building energy use was estimated using a GIS-based building energy simulation model in conjunction with Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration survey data, the Assessor's parcel data, GIS floor areas data, and remote sensing-derived building height data. The spatial patterns of anthropogenic heat discharge and energy use from residential and commercial buildings were analyzed and compared. Quantitative relationships were evaluated across multiple scales from pixel aggregation to census block. The results indicate that anthropogenic heat discharge is consistent with building energy use in terms of the spatial pattern, and that building energy use accounts for a significant fraction of anthropogenic heat discharge. The research also implies that the relationship between anthropogenic heat discharge and building energy use is scale-dependent. The simultaneous estimation of anthropogenic heat discharge and building energy use via two independent methods improves the understanding of the surface energy balance in an urban landscape. The anthropogenic heat discharge derived from remote sensing and meteorological data may be able to serve as a spatial distribution proxy for spatially-resolved building energy use, and even for fossil-fuel CO2 emissions if additional factors are considered.

Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake as a function of changing land use and land cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badar, Bazigha; Romshoo, Shakil A.; Khan, M. A.

2013-04-01

In this paper, we evaluate the impact of changing land use/land cover (LULC) on the hydrological processes in Dal lake catchment of Kashmir Himalayas by integrating remote sensing, simulation modelling and extensive field observations. Over the years, various anthropogenic pressures in the lake catchment have significantly altered the land system, impairing, inter-alia, sustained biotic communities and water quality of the lake. The primary objective of this paper was to help a better understanding of the LULC change, its driving forces and the overall impact on the hydrological response patterns. Multi-sensor and multi-temporal satellite data for 1992 and 2005 was used for determining the spatio-temporal dynamics of the lake catchment. Geographic Information System (GIS) based simulation model namely Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) was used to model the hydrological processes under the LULC conditions. We discuss spatio-temporal variations in LULC and identify factors contributing to these variations and analyze the corresponding impacts of the change on the hydrological processes like runoff, erosion and sedimentation. The simulated results on the hydrological responses reveal that depletion of the vegetation cover in the study area and increase in impervious and bare surface cover due to anthropogenic interventions are the primary reasons for the increased runoff, erosion and sediment discharges in the Dal lake catchment. This study concludes that LULC change in the catchment is a major concern that has disrupted the ecological stability and functioning of the Dal lake ecosystem.

Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution.

PubMed

Root, Terry L; MacMynowski, Dena P; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Schneider, Stephen H

2005-05-24

Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climatic change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data, which are independent of thermometer records and paleoclimatic proxies, we demonstrate statistically significant "joint attribution," a two-step linkage: human activities contribute significantly to temperature changes and human-changed temperatures are associated with discernible changes in plant and animal traits. Additionally, our analyses provide independent testing of grid-box-scale temperature projections from a general circulation model (HadCM3).

A multi-proxy approach to understanding complex responses of salt-lake catchments to climate variability and human pressure: A Late Quaternary case study from south-eastern, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Samantha Elsie; Burjachs, Francesc; Ferrer-García, Carlos; Giralt, Santiago; Schulte, Lothar; Fernández-López de Pablo, Javier

2018-03-01

This article focuses on a former salt lake in the upper Vinalopó Valley in south-eastern Spain. The study spans the Late Pleistocene through to the Late Holocene, although with particular focus on the period between 11 ka cal BP and 3000 ka cal BP (which spans the Mesolithic and part of the Bronze Age). High resolution multi-proxy analysis (including pollen, non pollen palynomorphs, grain size, X-ray fluorescence and X-ray diffraction) was undertaken on the lake sediments. The results show strong sensitivity to both long term and small changes in the evaporation/precipitation ratio, affecting the surrounding vegetation composition, lake-biota and sediment geochemistry. To summarise the key findings the main general trends identified include: 1) Hyper-saline conditions and low lake levels at the end of the Late Glacial 2) Increasing wetness and temperatures which witnessed an expansion of mesophilic woodland taxa, lake infilling and the establishment of a more perennial lake system at the onset of the Holocene 3) An increase in solar insolation after 9 ka cal BP which saw the re-establishment of pine forests 4) A continued trend towards increasing dryness (climatic optimum) at 7 ka cal BP but with continued freshwater input 5) An increase in sclerophyllous open woody vegetation (anthropogenic?), and increasing wetness (climatic?) is represented in the lake record between 5.9 and 3 ka cal BP 6) The Holocene was also punctuated by several aridity pulses, the most prominent corresponding to the 8.2 ka cal BP event. These events, despite a paucity of well dated archaeological sites in the surrounding area, likely altered the carrying capacity of this area both regionally and locally, particularly during the Mesolithic-Neolithic transition, in terms of fresh water supply for human/animal consumption, wild plant food reserves and suitable land for crop growth.

Late Glacial to Holocene environmental variabilities: A new multi-proxy paleolimnological study of sedimentary sequences from Como (northern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höbig, N.; Martinelli, E.; Motella, S.; Michetti, A. M.; Livio, F.; Tinner, W.; Reicherter, K.; Castelletti, L.

2012-04-01

Lake Como (northern Italy) is the deepest Italian lake, reaching a depth of about 425 m. The lambda-shaped lake expands about 45 km in NE-SW direction. Southwards of the hydrologically closed western branch, two sediment cores of 70 m (S1) and 65 m length (S2) were taken in the year 2005 close to the cathedral of Como (Piazza Verdi). The drilling sites are located in the middle of the Southern Alps, some 300 m from the present-day lakeshore. The cores provide the first detailed Late Glacial to Holocene multi-proxy record for the Lake Como basin. Our research is aimed at investigating the environmental and geological evolution of the Insubria Region. The multi-proxy study of the stratigraphic sequences contain geophysical, geotechnical, sedimentological, paleobotanical, and radiocarbon analyses. They have been performed for core S1 and are still in progress on core S2. With this data the working group focuses on two main issues. The first topic is the reconstruction of the natural and anthropogenic processes controlling the ground subsidence in the Como urban area (e.g., Comerci et al., 2007) and another aim is to reconstruct vegetation and land-use dynamics. In particular, 150 samples of vegetal macroremains have been collected in the palustrine deposits along S1 core, down to 31,00 m. Below this depth (dated 14C 12,496 ± 55 yr BP - 15,050 - 14,250 cal yr BP), the amount of plant macroremains in the sediment drops dramatically. The taxonomic determination was carried out on more than 800 macroremains. They are represented by fragments of wood, leaves, needles, seeds, fruits, mosses and tiny charcoals (Motella, 2009, unpublished PhD Thesis). Picea/Larix, Pinus sp., Juniperus with Betula, found in the deeper levels (30.80 - 30.00 m), are the first arboreal taxa that colonized the shores of Lake Como, and show that the reforestation began in this area about 16,000 years ago. During the early Holocene (25.10 m) Abies alba expanded and further upwards the sequence mixed deciduous forests became important. Preliminary results of palynological analyses for a section of the core S2 (35.04 - 18.12 m), show Late Glacial sediments in the depth of 35.04 - 31.16 m, due to vegetation changes related to natural climatic variability, with an alternation of communities typical of cold (Poaceae, Artemisia, Juniperus, Pinus and Betula) and temperate climates (e.g. Quercus). Later, during the Holocene, forests composed by mostly deciduous broadleaves and Abies alba expanded. During the mid and late Holocene human impact increased and modified vegetation. This is shown by the increase of herbs and heliofilous shrubs (26.51 m), typical of deforested spaces for fields and pastures. Human exploitation of wood is represented for example by the dramatic decline of Abies alba (24.97 m). Finally, the increase of Cerealia (19.39 m) is clearly related to intensified agricultural activities. The results of further paleobotanical and geophysical analyses which are in progress will be presented during the conference. Moreover, geochemical measurements (e.g., XRF) will be performed in future for core S2. Researches realized within the project of Italy-Switzerland Cooperation SITINET "Censimento, valorizzazione e messa in rete di siti geologici e archeologici" (Census, increase of value and computerization of geological and archaeological sites). Interreg IV A "Geo-Archeositi dell'Insubria" (Geo-Archaeosites of Insubria).

Nonequilibrium clumped isotope signals in microbial methane

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, David T.; Gruen, Danielle S.; Lollar, Barbara Sherwood; Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Stewart, Lucy C.; Holden, James F.; Hristov, Alexander N.; Pohlman, John W.; Morrill, Penny L.; Könneke, Martin; Delwiche, Kyle B.; Reeves, Eoghan P.; Sutcliffe, Chelsea N.; Ritter, Daniel J.; Seewald, Jeffrey S.; McIntosh, Jennifer C.; Hemond, Harold F.; Kubo, Michael D.; Cardace, Dawn; Hoehler, Tori M.; Ono, Shuhei

2015-01-01

Methane is a key component in the global carbon cycle with a wide range of anthropogenic and natural sources. Although isotopic compositions of methane have traditionally aided source identification, the abundance of its multiply-substituted “clumped” isotopologues, e.g., 13CH3D, has recently emerged as a proxy for determining methane-formation temperatures; however, the impact of biological processes on methane’s clumped isotopologue signature is poorly constrained. We show that methanogenesis proceeding at relatively high rates in cattle, surface environments, and laboratory cultures exerts kinetic control on 13CH3D abundances and results in anomalously elevated formation temperature estimates. We demonstrate quantitatively that H2 availability accounts for this effect. Clumped methane thermometry can therefore provide constraints on the generation of methane in diverse settings, including continental serpentinization sites and ancient, deep groundwaters.

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model

PubMed Central

Ammann, Caspar M.; Joos, Fortunat; Schimel, David S.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Tomas, Robert A.

2007-01-01

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether proxy-based irradiance series are capable of inducing climatic variations that resemble variations found in climate reconstructions, and if part of the previously estimated large range of past solar irradiance changes could be excluded. Transient simulations, covering the published range of solar irradiance estimates, were integrated from 850 AD to the present. Solar forcing as well as volcanic and anthropogenic forcing are detectable in the model results despite internal variability. The resulting climates are generally consistent with temperature reconstructions. Smaller, rather than larger, long-term trends in solar irradiance appear more plausible and produced modeled climates in better agreement with the range of Northern Hemisphere temperature proxy records both with respect to phase and magnitude. Despite the direct response of the model to solar forcing, even large solar irradiance change combined with realistic volcanic forcing over past centuries could not explain the late 20th century warming without inclusion of greenhouse gas forcing. Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century. PMID:17360418

Ecological niche modeling for a cultivated plant species: a case study on taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii.

PubMed

Kodis, Mali'o; Galante, Peter; Sterling, Eleanor J; Blair, Mary E

2018-04-26

Under the threat of ongoing and projected climate change, communities in the Pacific Islands face challenges of adapting culture and lifestyle to accommodate a changing landscape. Few models can effectively predict how biocultural livelihoods might be impacted. Here, we examine how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence an ecological niche model (ENM) for the realized niche of cultivated taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii. We created and tuned two sets of ENMs: one using only environmental variables, and one using both environmental and cultural characteristics of Hawaii. These models were projected under two different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2070. Models were selected and evaluated using average omission rate and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We compared optimal model predictions by comparing the percentage of taro plots predicted present and measured ENM overlap using Schoener's D statistic. The model including only environmental variables consisted of 19 Worldclim bioclimatic variables, in addition to slope, altitude, distance to perennial streams, soil evaporation, and soil moisture. The optimal model with environmental variables plus anthropogenic features also included a road density variable (which we assumed as a proxy for urbanization) and a variable indicating agricultural lands of importance to the state of Hawaii. The model including anthropogenic features performed better than the environment-only model based on omission rate, AUC, and review of spatial projections. The two models also differed in spatial projections for taro under anticipated future climate change. Our results demonstrate how ENMs including anthropogenic features can predict which areas might be best suited to plant cultivated species in the future, and how these areas could change under various climate projections. These predictions might inform biocultural conservation priorities and initiatives. In addition, we discuss the incongruences that arise when traditional ENM theory is applied to species whose distribution has been significantly impacted by human intervention, particularly at a fine scale relevant to biocultural conservation initiatives. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Unravelling the Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Track Position since the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldini, L. M.; Baldini, J. U. L.; McElwaine, J.; Frappier, A. B.; Asmerom, Y.; Liu, K. B.; Prufer, K. M.; Ridley, H.; Polyak, V. J.; Kennett, D. J.; Macpherson, C.; Aquino, V. V.; Awe, J.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.

2017-12-01

In the last decade, stalagmites have been recognised as valuable archives of past hurricane activity. The characteristically low δ18O rainfall of tropical cyclones (TCs, including both hurricanes and tropical storms) is particularly well-preserved in fast-growing tropical speleothems. Here we present a new multi-proxy approach used to extract the western Caribbean TC signal from background wet season rainfall that, at our site in southern Belize, is driven by seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The result is an annual 450-year record of western Caribbean TC activity that, when compared to documentary and statistical model-based reconstructions of North Atlantic TC activity, reveals a northward migration of dominant TC track since the height of Little Ice Age cooling. Importantly, the record reveals a reversal in the TC track position-North Atlantic sea surface temperature relationship between the pre-Industrial and Industrial Eras. During the pre-Industrial interval, TC track position migrated with the ITCZ toward the warmer hemisphere. Conversely, anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions during the Industrial Era have decoupled TC track position from the ITCZ through expansion of the Hadley Cell. This research suggests that under future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios, the dominant TC track is likely to remain to the north. Combined with greenhouse gas-induced rising sea surface temperatures, the risk to the NE US population and financial centres is likely to increase in the future.

Early anthropogenic impact on Western Central African rainforests 2,600 y ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcin, Yannick; Deschamps, Pierre; Ménot, Guillemette; de Saulieu, Geoffroy; Schefuß, Enno; Sebag, David; Dupont, Lydie M.; Oslisly, Richard; Brademann, Brian; Mbusnum, Kevin G.; Onana, Jean-Michel; Ako, Andrew A.; Epp, Laura S.; Tjallingii, Rik; Strecker, Manfred R.; Brauer, Achim; Sachse, Dirk

2018-03-01

A potential human footprint on Western Central African rainforests before the Common Era has become the focus of an ongoing controversy. Between 3,000 y ago and 2,000 y ago, regional pollen sequences indicate a replacement of mature rainforests by a forest–savannah mosaic including pioneer trees. Although some studies suggested an anthropogenic influence on this forest fragmentation, current interpretations based on pollen data attribute the ‘‘rainforest crisis’’ to climate change toward a drier, more seasonal climate. A rigorous test of this hypothesis, however, requires climate proxies independent of vegetation changes. Here we resolve this controversy through a continuous 10,500-y record of both vegetation and hydrological changes from Lake Barombi in Southwest Cameroon based on changes in carbon and hydrogen isotope compositions of plant waxes. δ13C-inferred vegetation changes confirm a prominent and abrupt appearance of C4 plants in the Lake Barombi catchment, at 2,600 calendar years before AD 1950 (cal y BP), followed by an equally sudden return to rainforest vegetation at 2,020 cal y BP. δD values from the same plant wax compounds, however, show no simultaneous hydrological change. Based on the combination of these data with a comprehensive regional archaeological database we provide evidence that humans triggered the rainforest fragmentation 2,600 y ago. Our findings suggest that technological developments, including agricultural practices and iron metallurgy, possibly related to the large-scale Bantu expansion, significantly impacted the ecosystems before the Common Era.

Early anthropogenic impact on Western Central African rainforests 2,600 y ago.

PubMed

Garcin, Yannick; Deschamps, Pierre; Ménot, Guillemette; de Saulieu, Geoffroy; Schefuß, Enno; Sebag, David; Dupont, Lydie M; Oslisly, Richard; Brademann, Brian; Mbusnum, Kevin G; Onana, Jean-Michel; Ako, Andrew A; Epp, Laura S; Tjallingii, Rik; Strecker, Manfred R; Brauer, Achim; Sachse, Dirk

2018-03-27

A potential human footprint on Western Central African rainforests before the Common Era has become the focus of an ongoing controversy. Between 3,000 y ago and 2,000 y ago, regional pollen sequences indicate a replacement of mature rainforests by a forest-savannah mosaic including pioneer trees. Although some studies suggested an anthropogenic influence on this forest fragmentation, current interpretations based on pollen data attribute the ''rainforest crisis'' to climate change toward a drier, more seasonal climate. A rigorous test of this hypothesis, however, requires climate proxies independent of vegetation changes. Here we resolve this controversy through a continuous 10,500-y record of both vegetation and hydrological changes from Lake Barombi in Southwest Cameroon based on changes in carbon and hydrogen isotope compositions of plant waxes. [Formula: see text] 13 C-inferred vegetation changes confirm a prominent and abrupt appearance of C 4 plants in the Lake Barombi catchment, at 2,600 calendar years before AD 1950 (cal y BP), followed by an equally sudden return to rainforest vegetation at 2,020 cal y BP. [Formula: see text]D values from the same plant wax compounds, however, show no simultaneous hydrological change. Based on the combination of these data with a comprehensive regional archaeological database we provide evidence that humans triggered the rainforest fragmentation 2,600 y ago. Our findings suggest that technological developments, including agricultural practices and iron metallurgy, possibly related to the large-scale Bantu expansion, significantly impacted the ecosystems before the Common Era.

Impact of Emissions and Long-Range Transport on Multi-Decadal Aerosol Trends: Implications for Air Quality and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian

2012-01-01

We present a global model analysis of the impact of long-range transport and anthropogenic emissions on the aerosol trends in the major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere and in the Arctic in the past three decades. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to analyze the multi-spatial and temporal scale data, including observations from Terra, Aqua, and CALIPSO satellites and from the long-term surface monitoring stations. We will analyze the source attribution (SA) and source-receptor (SR) relationships in North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and the Arctic at the surface and free troposphere and establish the quantitative linkages between emissions from different source regions. We will discuss the implications for regional air quality and climate change.

Radiological and multi-element analysis of sediments from the Proserpina reservoir (Spain) dating from Roman times.

PubMed

Baeza, A; Guillén, J; Ontalba Salamanca, M A; Rodríguez, A; Ager, F J

2009-10-01

The Proserpina dam was built in Roman times to provide drinking water to Emerita Augusta (today's Mérida in SW Spain). During maintenance work, a sediment core was extracted, offering an excellent opportunity to analyze the historical environmental impacts of the dam and its reservoir over the 2000 years since Roman times. In order to establish an accurate chronology, (14)C ages were determined by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Core samples were assayed for their content in uranium and thorium series isotopes, (40)K, and the anthropogenic radionuclides (137)Cs, (90)Sr, and (239+240)Pu. Potassium-40 presented the highest activity level and was not constant with depth. The uranium and thorium series were generally in equilibrium, suggesting there had been no additional input of natural radionuclides. The presence of (137)Cs was only found in relation with the global fallout in the early 1960s. Multi-element assays were performed using the PIXE and PIGE techniques. Some variations in the multi-element concentrations were observed with depth, but the sediment core could be considered as clean, and no presumptive anthropogenic pollutants were found. Nevertheless, an unusually high Zn content was detected at depths corresponding to pre-Roman times, due to geological anomalies in the area.

The Dust Bowl in the American West: A geochemical record of dust provenance and deposition in the Upper Fremont Glacier ice core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrus, C. F. T.; Bassett, C.; Black, H. D.; Payne, T. N.

2016-12-01

Several recent studies demonstrate that nitrogen isotope analysis of the organic fraction of mollusk shells can serve as a proxy for anthropogenic environmental impacts, including sewage input into estuaries. Analysis of δ15N in shells from archaeological sites permits construction of time-series proxy data from the present day to pre-industrial times, yielding insight into the history of some human environmental influences such as waste input and land use changes. Most such studies utilize a single bulk analysis per valve, combining shell material grown over time periods of one or more years. However, large, fast-growing species (e.g. some scallops and abalone) may permit sub-annual sampling, potentially yielding insight into seasonal processes. Such sclerochronological sampling of archaeological shells may enable researchers to detect variation at a finer temporal scale than has been attempted to date, which in turn may facilitate analysis of seasonal resource procurement strategies and related actions. This presentation will incorporate new and published data from the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coasts of North America to assess how sclerochronological δ15N data can be useful to better understand pre-industrial human-environmental interaction and change, and also address diagenesis and other preservational concerns commonly found in archaeological samples.

δ15N Values in Crassostrea virginica Shells Provides Early Direct Evidence for Nitrogen Loading to Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, H. D.; Andrus, C. F. T.; Lambert, W. J.; Rick, T. C.; Gillikin, D. P.

2017-03-01

Crassostrea virginica is one of the most common estuarine bivalves in the United States’ east coast and is frequently found in archaeological sites and sub-fossil deposits. Although there have been several sclerochronological studies on stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in the shells of this species, less is known about δ15N values within their shells, which could be a useful paleoenvironmental proxy to assess estuarine nitrogen dynamics. Modern C. virginica samples were collected in Chesapeake Bay for comparison with archaeological shells from nearby sites ranging in age from ~100 to 3,200 years old. Left valves were sampled by milling the hinge area and the resulting powder was analyzed for %N and δ15N values. Comparison of δ15N values between C. virginica shells shows relatively constant values from ~1250 BC to ~1800 AD. After ~1800 AD, there are rapid increases in 15N enrichment in the shells, which continue to increase in value up to the modern shell values. The increase in δ15N values is evidence of early anthropogenic impact in Chesapeake Bay. These results corroborate the observation that coastal nitrogen pollution occurred earlier than the 19th century and support the use of oyster shell δ15N values as a useful environmental proxy.

Pollen assemblages as paleoenvironmental proxies in the Florida Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, D.A.; Weimer, L.M.; Riegel, W.L.

2001-01-01

Analysis of 170 pollen assemblages from surface samples in eight vegetation types in the Florida Everglades indicates that these wetland sub-environments are distinguishable from the pollen record and that they are useful proxies for hydrologic and edaphic parameters. Vegetation types sampled include sawgrass marshes, cattail marshes, sloughs with floating aquatics, wet prairies, brackish marshes, tree islands, cypress swamps, and mangrove forests. The distribution of these vegetation types is controlled by specific environmental parameters, such as hydrologic regime, nutrient availability, disturbance level, substrate type, and salinity; ecotones between vegetation types may be sharp. Using R-mode cluster analysis of pollen data, we identified diagnostic species groupings; Q-mode cluster analysis was used to differentiate pollen signatures of each vegetation type. Cluster analysis and the modern analog technique were applied to interpret vegetational and environmental trends over the last two millennia at a site in Water Conservation Area 3A. The results show that close modern analogs exist for assemblages in the core and indicate past hydrologic changes at the site, correlated with both climatic and land-use changes. The ability to differentiate marshes with different hydrologic and edaphic requirements using the pollen record facilitates assessment of relative impacts of climatic and anthropogenic changes on this wetland ecosystem on smaller spatial and temporal scales than previously were possible. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

Nitrogen Isotope Analyses in Mollusk Shell: Applications to Environmental Sciences and Archaeology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrus, C. F. T.; Bassett, C.; Black, H. D.; Payne, T. N.

2017-12-01

Several recent studies demonstrate that nitrogen isotope analysis of the organic fraction of mollusk shells can serve as a proxy for anthropogenic environmental impacts, including sewage input into estuaries. Analysis of δ15N in shells from archaeological sites permits construction of time-series proxy data from the present day to pre-industrial times, yielding insight into the history of some human environmental influences such as waste input and land use changes. Most such studies utilize a single bulk analysis per valve, combining shell material grown over time periods of one or more years. However, large, fast-growing species (e.g. some scallops and abalone) may permit sub-annual sampling, potentially yielding insight into seasonal processes. Such sclerochronological sampling of archaeological shells may enable researchers to detect variation at a finer temporal scale than has been attempted to date, which in turn may facilitate analysis of seasonal resource procurement strategies and related actions. This presentation will incorporate new and published data from the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coasts of North America to assess how sclerochronological δ15N data can be useful to better understand pre-industrial human-environmental interaction and change, and also address diagenesis and other preservational concerns commonly found in archaeological samples.

Synchronous multi-decadal climate variability of the whole Pacific areas revealed in tree rings since 1567

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Keyan; Cook, Edward; Guo, Zhengtang; Chen, Deliang; Ou, Tinghai; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Oceanic and atmospheric patterns play a crucial role in modulating climate variability from interannual to multi-decadal timescales by causing large-scale co-varying climate changes. The brevity of the existing instrumental records hinders the ability to recognize climate patterns before the industrial era, which can be alleviated using proxies. Unfortunately, proxy based reconstructions of oceanic and atmospheric modes of the past millennia often have modest agreements with each other before the instrumental period, raising questions about the robustness of the reconstructions. To ensure the stability of climate signals in proxy data through time, we first identified tree-ring datasets from distant regions containing coherent variations in Asia and North America, and then interpreted their climate information. We found that the multi-decadal covarying climate patterns of the middle and high latitudinal regions around the northern Pacific Ocean agreed quite well with the climate reconstructions of the tropical and southern Pacific areas. This indicates a synchronous variability at the multi-decadal timescale of the past 430 years for the entire Pacific Ocean. This pattern is closely linked to the dominant mode of the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) after removing the warming trend. This Pacific multi-decadal SST variability resembles the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.

Impact of advance directives and a health care proxy on doctors' decisions: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Escher, Monica; Perneger, Thomas V; Rudaz, Sandrine; Dayer, Pierre; Perrier, Arnaud

2014-01-01

Advance directives or proxy designations are widely recommended, but how they affect doctors' decision making is not well known. The aim of this study was to quantify the influence of advance directives and proxy opinions on doctors' decisions. We mailed to all the generalists and internists in French-speaking Switzerland (N = 1962) three vignettes describing difficult decisions involving incapacitated patients. In each case, the advance directive requested that further care be withheld. One vignette tested the impact of a written advance directive vs. a proxy. Another compared the impact of a handwritten directive vs. a formalized document. The third vignette compared the impact of a family member vs. a doctor as a proxy. Each vignette was prepared in three or four versions, including a control version in which no directive or proxy was present. Vignettes were randomly allocated to respondents. We used logistic regression to predict the decision to forgo a medical intervention. Compared with the control condition, the odds of forgoing a medical intervention were increased by the written advance directive (odds ratio [OR] 7.3; P < 0.001), the proxy (OR 7.9; P < 0.001), and the combination of the two (OR 35.7; P < 0.001). The handwritten directive had the same impact (OR 13.3) as the formalized directive (OR 13.8). The effect of proxy opinion was slightly stronger when provided by a doctor (OR 11.3) rather than by family (OR 7.8). Advance directives and proxy opinions are equally effective in influencing doctors' decisions, but having both has the strongest effect. The format of the advance directive and the identity of the proxy have little influence on decisions. Copyright © 2014 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Microspectroscopic Analysis of Anthropogenic- and Biogenic-Influenced Aerosol Particles during the SOAS Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ault, A. P.; Bondy, A. L.; Nhliziyo, M. V.; Bertman, S. B.; Pratt, K.; Shepson, P. B.

2013-12-01

During the summer, the southeastern United States experiences a cooling haze due to the interaction of anthropogenic and biogenic aerosol sources. An objective of the summer 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) was to improve our understanding of how trace gases and aerosols are contributing to this relative cooling through light scattering and absorption. To improve understanding of biogenic-anthropogenic interactions through secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation on primary aerosol cores requires detailed physicochemical characterization of the particles after uptake and processing. Our measurements focus on single particle analysis of aerosols in the accumulation mode (300-1000 nm) collected using a multi orifice uniform deposition impactor (MOUDI) at the Centreville, Alabama SEARCH site. Particles were characterized using an array of microscopic and spectroscopic techniques, including: scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX), and Raman microspectroscopy. These analyses provide detailed information on particle size, morphology, elemental composition, and functional groups. This information is combined with mapping capabilities to explore individual particle spatial patterns and how that impacts structural characteristics. The improved understanding will be used to explore how sources and processing (such as SOA coating of soot) change particle structure (i.e. core shell) and how the altered optical properties impact air quality/climate effects on a regional scale.

Mapping cold-water coral habitats at different scales within the Northern Ionian Sea (Central Mediterranean): an assessment of coral coverage and associated vulnerability.

PubMed

Savini, Alessandra; Vertino, Agostina; Marchese, Fabio; Beuck, Lydia; Freiwald, André

2014-01-01

In this study, we mapped the distribution of Cold-Water Coral (CWC) habitats on the northern Ionian Margin (Mediterranean Sea), with an emphasis on assessing coral coverage at various spatial scales over an area of 2,000 km(2) between 120 and 1,400 m of water depth. Our work made use of a set of data obtained from ship-based research surveys. Multi-scale seafloor mapping data, video inspections, and previous results from sediment samples were integrated and analyzed using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based tools. Results obtained from the application of spatial and textural analytical techniques to acoustic meso-scale maps (i.e. a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the seafloor at a 40 m grid cell size and associated terrain parameters) and large-scale maps (i.e. Side-Scan Sonar (SSS) mosaics of 1 m in resolution ground-truthed using underwater video observations) were integrated and revealed that, at the meso-scale level, the main morphological pattern (i.e. the aggregation of mound-like features) associated with CWC habitat occurrences was widespread over a total area of 600 km(2). Single coral mounds were isolated from the DTM and represented the geomorphic proxies used to model coral distributions within the investigated area. Coral mounds spanned a total area of 68 km(2) where different coral facies (characterized using video analyses and mapped on SSS mosaics) represent the dominant macro-habitat. We also mapped and classified anthropogenic threats that were identifiable within the examined videos, and, here, discuss their relationship to the mapped distribution of coral habitats and mounds. The combined results (from multi-scale habitat mapping and observations of the distribution of anthropogenic threats) provide the first quantitative assessment of CWC coverage for a Mediterranean province and document the relevant role of seafloor geomorphology in influencing habitat vulnerability to different types of human pressures.

Alpine Holocene Tree Ring Isotope Records - A Synthesis of a Multi-Proxy Approach in Dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziehmer, Malin Michelle; Nicolussi, Kurt; Schlüchter, Christian; Leuenberger, Markus

2017-04-01

High-resolution climate reconstructions based on tree-ring proxies are often limited by the individual segment length of living trees selected at the defined sampling sites, which mostly results in relatively short multi-centennial proxy series. A potential extension of living wood records comprise the addition of subfossil and archeological wood remains resulting in chronologies and associated climate reconstructions which are able to cover a few millennia in central Europe (e.g. Büntgen et al., 2011). However, existing multi-millennial tree-ring width chronologies in central Europe rank among the longest continuous chronologies world-wide and span the entire Holocene (Becker et al., 1993; Nicolussi et al. 2009). So far, these chronologies have mainly been used for dating subfossil wood samples, floating chronologies and archeological artifacts, but only in parts for reconstructing climate. Finds of Holocene wood remains in glacier forefields, peat bogs and small lakes allow us not only to establish such long-term tree-ring width records; further they offer the possibility to establish multi-millennial proxy records for the entire Holocene by using a multi-proxy approach which includes both tree-ring width and triple stable isotope ratios. As temperature limits tree growth at the Alpine upper tree line, the existing tree-ring width records are currently limited to reconstruct a single environmental variable. In the framework of the project Alpine Holocene Tree Ring Isotope Records, we combine tree-ring width, cellulose content as well as carbon, oxygen and hydrogen isotope series in a multi-proxy approach which allows the reconstruction of past environments by combining both Holocene wood remains and recent tree samples from two Alpine tree-line species. For this purpose, α-cellulose is prepared from 5-year tree ring blocks following the procedure after Boettger et al. (2007) and subsequently crushed by ultrasonic homogenization (Laumer et al., 2009). The cellulose content is determined for each individual sample and carbon, oxygen and hydrogen isotopic ratios are measured simultaneously (Loader et al., 2015). The isotope records of carbon, oxygen and hydrogen show distinct low-frequency trends for the Early- and Mid-Holocene, but the individual series per proxy are often offset in their isotopic signature. As the sampling sites in our study are distributed along a SW-NE transect, the influence of the site conditions (latitude, longitude, elevation, exposition) and the tree species is tested and subsequently a correction is applied to the individual series. In addition, the tree-ring width records operate as a helpful tool in detecting and attributing the influence of larch budmoth outbreaks on the cellulose content and isotope records. We here present a synthesis of the applied multi-proxy approach and its ability to reconstruct Holocene climate variability for the time span from 9000 to 3500 years b2k covering the Early-Holocene (9000 to 7200 years b2k) and Mid-Holocene (7200 to 4200 years b2k) and the transition to the late Holocene (4200 to 3500 years b2k) as well as the recent 400 years including the modern warming. References Becker, B., & Kromer, B. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 1993, 103(1): 67-71 Boettger, T., et al. Anal. Chem., 2007, 79: 4603-4612 Büntgen, U. et al. Science, 2011, 331(6017): 578-582 Laumer, W., et al. Rapid Commun. Mass Spectrom., 2009, 23: 1934-1940 Loader, N.J., et al. Anal. Chem., 2015, 87: 376-380 Nicolussi K., et al. The Holocene, 2009, 19(6): 909-920

Evidence of Himalayan uplift as seen in Neogene records of Indian monsoon variability from ODP Hole 722B, NW Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthusamy, Prakasam; Gupta, Anil K.; Saini, Naresh K.

2013-04-01

The Indian monsoon is one of the most interesting climatic features on Earth impacting most populous countries of South and East Asia. It is marked by seasonal reversals of wind direction with southwesterly winds in summer (June-September) and northeasterly winds in winter (December-February). The monsoon not only impacts socioeconomic conditions of Asia but also brings important changes in fauna and flora, ocean upwelling and primary productivity in the Arabian Sea. The Himalaya has undergone several phases of rapid uplift and exhumation since the early Miocene which led to major intensification of the Indian monsoon. The monsoon is driven by the thermal contrast between land and sea, and is intimately linked with the latitudinal movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The effect of Indian monsoon variability and the Himalayan uplift can be seen in numerous proxy records across the region. In this study we discussed about the Indian monsoon intensification and the Himalayan uplift since the early Miocene based on multi proxy records such as planktic foraminiferal relative abundances (Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinita glutinata and mixed layer species), total organic carbon (TOC), CaCO3 and elemental data from ODP Hole 722B (2028 mbsf), northwestern Arabian Sea. The TOC, CaCO3 and elemental variations of the ODP Hole 722B suggest multi phase of monsoonal intensification and Himalayan uplifts. Our results suggest that in the early Miocene (23.03 Ma) to ~15Ma, the wind strength and productivity were low. A major change is observed at ~15 Ma, during which time numerous proxies show abrupt changes. TOC, CaCO3 and Elemental analyses results reveal that a major change in the productivity, wind strength and chemical weathering starts around 15 Ma and extends up to 10 Ma. This suggests that a major Himalayan uplift occurred during ~15-10 Ma that drove Indian monsoon intensification. A similar change is also observed during 5 to 1 Ma. These long-term paleoclimatic trends correlated to Himalayan uplift. Major peaks in various proxy records correspond with enhanced monsoonal strength and the Himalayan uplift. Keywords: Indian monsoon; Himalayan uplift; Arabian Sea; Productivity; Planktic foraminifera; Total Organic Carbon

Biomagnetic monitoring and element content of lichen transplants in a mixed land use area of NE Italy.

PubMed

Kodnik, Danijela; Winkler, Aldo; Candotto Carniel, Fabio; Tretiach, Mauro

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to verify whether it is possible to discriminate between the different pollution sources present in a mixed land use area of NE Italy on the basis of the magnetic properties and the element content of lichen transplants. Thalli of Pseudevernia furfuracea were collected in a pristine area of the South-Eastern Alps and exposed for 2months in 40 sites located at the knots of a 700m step grid covering ca. 40km 2 of a mosaic of agricultural, forested, industrial and urban areas. In this way, the samples could be analyzed after a defined period of time, and compared to pre-exposure conditions. The post-exposure element content and the magnetic data substantially agreed, revealing a rather modest anthropogenic impact on the territory, mostly limited to an industrial park. Since the magnetic mineralogy was homogeneous throughout the entire set of samples, with magnetite-like minerals as the main magnetic carriers, it was not possible to discriminate between PM originating from the different pollution sources. The contribution given by the industrial park could be confirmed by the multivariate analysis of the element data set. Conversely, it was possible to assess the low environmental impact of the largest local industry, a cement plant, located outside the industrial park. Notwithstanding the relatively short time of the survey, P. furfuracea was proven to be an effective accumulator for biomagnetic monitoring studies, its magnetic properties being excellent proxies for heavy metal pollution even when the anthropogenic impact on the territory is low. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

DOE PAGES

Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

2015-12-21

Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here in this work, we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is stillmore » weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Finally, hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.« less

Do elevated nutrients and organic carbon on Philippine reefs increase the prevalence of coral disease?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaczmarsky, L.; Richardson, L. L.

2011-03-01

Characterizations of Philippine coral diseases are very limited. The two most common, ulcerative white spot disease (UWS) and massive Porites growth anomalies (MPGA), target the genus Porites, a dominant reef-building genus. This is the first investigation in the Philippines to detect positive correlations between coral disease, nutrient levels, and organic carbon. A total of 5,843 Porites colonies were examined. Water and sediment samples were collected for analyses of nutrients (total nitrogen and phosphorus) and total organic carbon at 15 sites along a 40.5 km disease gradient, which was previously shown to positively correlate with human population levels. Results suggest that outbreaks of UWS and MPGAs are driven by elevated nutrient and organic carbon levels. Although the variables analyzed could be proxies for other causative agents (e.g., high sediment levels), the results provide quantitative evidence linking relatively higher coral disease prevalence to an anthropogenically impacted environment.

Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy

PubMed Central

Harvey, Jeffrey A; van den Berg, Daphne; Ellers, Jacintha; Kampen, Remko; Crowther, Thomas W; Roessingh, Peter; Verheggen, Bart; Nuijten, Rascha J M; Post, Eric; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Stirling, Ian; Balgopal, Meena; Amstrup, Steven C; Mann, Michael E

2018-01-01

Abstract Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a “poster species” for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere. PMID:29662248

Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy.

PubMed

Harvey, Jeffrey A; van den Berg, Daphne; Ellers, Jacintha; Kampen, Remko; Crowther, Thomas W; Roessingh, Peter; Verheggen, Bart; Nuijten, Rascha J M; Post, Eric; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Stirling, Ian; Balgopal, Meena; Amstrup, Steven C; Mann, Michael E

2018-04-01

Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a "poster species" for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere.

Reconstructing palaeo-environmental conditions in the Baltic: A multi-proxy comparison from IODP Site M0059 (Little Belt)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, Ulrich; Andrén, Thomas; Bauersachs, Thorsten; Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Granoszewski, Wojciech; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Krupinski, Nadine; Peyron, Odile; Stepanova, Anna; Cotterill, Carol

2015-04-01

Some of the largest marine environmental impacts from ongoing global climate change are occurring in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins, including severe oxygen depletion, intensifying stratification, and increasing temperatures. In order to predict future changes in water mass conditions, it is essential to reconstruct how these conditions have changed in the past. The brackish Baltic Sea is one of the largest semi-enclosed basins worldwide, and hence provides a unique opportunity to analyse past changes. IODP Expedition 347 recovered a unique set of long sediment cores from the Baltic Sea Basin which allow new high-resolution reconstructions. The application of existing and development of new proxies in such a setting is complicated, as environmental changes often occur on much faster time scales with much larger variations. Therefore, we present a comparison of commonly used proxies to reconstruct palaeoecosystems, -temperatures, and -salinity from IODP Site M0059 in the Little Belt. The age model for Site M0059 is based on 14C dating and biostratigraphic correlation with neighbouring terrestrial pollen records. The aim of our study is to reconstruct the development of the terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the research area and the related environmental conditions, and to identify potential limitations for specific proxies. Pollen is used as proxy for vegetation development in the hinterland of the southern Baltic Sea and as land/air-temperature proxies. By comparison with dinoflagellate cysts and green algae remains from the same samples, a direct land-sea comparison is provided. The application of the modern analogues technique to pollen assemblages has previously yielded precise results for late Pleistocene and Holocene datasets including specific information on seasonality, but pollen-based reconstructions for Northern Europe may be hampered by plant migration effects. Chironomid remains are used where possible as indicators for surface water conditions during the warm season. Analyses of palynomorphs and chironomids are complemented with the analysis of lipid palaeothermometers, such as TEX86 and the long chain diol index (LDI), which both allow reconstructing variation in sea surface temperatures (SST) of the Baltic Sea. In addition, the MBT/CBT proxy is used to infer past changes in mean annual air temperatures (MAAT) and the diol index (DI) to determine variation in salinity of the Baltic Sea's surface waters over the investigated time period. The low salinity (25 psu) of the Little Belt is a potential limitation for several of the used proxies, which could lead to under-estimation of paleo-temperatures. To quantitatively and qualitatively estimate the impact of salinity, δ18O measurements (monospecific) and faunal assemblage analyses are performed on benthic foraminifera as well as ostracod faunal assemblages, which are especially sensitive to bottom water salinity changes. The results of this inter-comparison study will be useful for the reconstruction of gradients between different settings, e.g. how water column stratification developed, possibly if and how changes in seasonality occurred, and to identify the circumstances under which specific proxies may be affected by secondary impacts.

How do anthropogenic contaminants (ACs) affect behaviour? Multi-level analysis of the effects of copper on boldness in hermit crabs.

PubMed

White, Stephen J; Briffa, Mark

2017-02-01

Natural animal populations are increasingly exposed to human impacts on the environment, which could have consequences for their behaviour. Among these impacts is exposure to anthropogenic contaminants. Any environmental variable that influences internal state could impact behaviour across a number of levels: at the sample mean, at the level of among-individual differences in behaviour ('animal personality') and at the level of within-individual variation in behaviour (intra-individual variation, 'IIV'). Here we examined the effect of exposure to seawater-borne copper on the startle response behaviour of European hermit crabs, Pagurus bernhardus across these levels. Copper exposure rapidly led to longer startle responses on average, but did not lead to any change in repeatability indicating that individual differences were present and equally consistent in the presence and absence of copper. There was no strong evidence that copper exposure led to changes in IIV. Our data show that exposure to copper for 1 week produces sample mean level changes in the behaviour of hermit crabs. However, there is no evidence that this exposure led to changes in repeatability through feedback loops.

Restoring fish ecological quality in estuaries: Implication of interactive and cumulative effects among anthropogenic stressors.

PubMed

Teichert, Nils; Borja, Angel; Chust, Guillem; Uriarte, Ainhize; Lepage, Mario

2016-01-15

Estuaries are subjected to multiple anthropogenic stressors, which have additive, antagonistic or synergistic effects. Current challenges include the use of large databases of biological monitoring surveys (e.g. the European Water Framework Directive) to help environmental managers prioritizing restoration measures. This study investigated the impact of nine stressor categories on the fish ecological status derived from 90 estuaries of the North East Atlantic countries. We used a random forest model to: 1) detect the dominant stressors and their non-linear effects; 2) evaluate the ecological benefits expected from reducing pressure from stressors; and 3) investigate the interactions among stressors. Results showed that largest restoration benefits were expected when mitigating water pollution and oxygen depletion. Non-additive effects represented half of pairwise interactions among stressors, and antagonisms were the most common. Dredged sediments, flow changes and oxygen depletion were predominantly implicated in non-additive interactions, whereas the remainder stressors often showed additive impacts. The prevalence of interactive impacts reflects a complex scenario for estuaries management; hence, we proposed a step-by-step restoration scheme focusing on the mitigation of stressors providing the maximum of restoration benefits under a multi-stress context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abrupt Climate Change in the Atlantic Ocean During the Last 20,000 Years: Insights from Multi-Element Analyses of Benthic and Planktic Foraminifera and a Coupled OA-GCM

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

paleoceanographic and terrestrial climate proxies . Greenland ice cores, in particular, provide evidence of large amplitude, very rapid climate change during...received the most attention because it is the largest Holocene excursion in the GISP2 810 record [Alley et al., 1997]. Multiple proxies in Greenland ice...latitude North Atlantic foraminiferal-based proxies such as modem analogue technique [Marchal et al., 2002; Risebrobakken et al., 2003], but

A History of Warming Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Acidification Recorded by Planktonic Foraminifera Geochemistry from the Santa Barbara Basin, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborne, E.; Thunell, R.; Bizimis, M.; Buckley, W. P., Jr.; benitez-Nelson, C. R.; Chartier, C. J.

2015-12-01

The geochemistry of foraminiferal shells has been widely used to reconstruct past conditions of the ocean and climate. Since the onset of the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenically produced CO2 has resulted in an increase in global temperatures and a decline in the mean pH of the world's oceans. The California Current System is a particularly susceptible region to ocean acidification due to natural upwelling processes that also cause a reduction in seawater pH. The trace element concentration of magnesium and boron in planktonic foraminiferal shells are used here as proxies for temperature and carbonate ion concentration ([CO32-]), respectively. Newly developed calibrations relating Mg/Ca ratios to temperature (R2 0.91) and B/Ca ratios to [CO32-] (R2 0.84) for the surface-mixed layer species Globogerina bulloides were generated using material collected in the Santa Barbara Basin sediment trap time-series. Using these empirical relationships, temperature and [CO32-] are reconstructed using a 0.5 meter long multi-core collected within the basin. 210Pb activities were used to determine a sedimentation rate for the core to estimate ages for core samples (sedimentation rate: 0.341 cm/yr). A spike in 137Cs activity is used as a tie-point to the year 1965 coinciding with the peak of nuclear bomb testing. Our down-core record extends through the mid-19th century to create a history of rising sea surface temperatures and declining [CO32-] as a result of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S. G.; Parsons, L. A.; Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2017-10-01

The spectral characteristics of paleoclimate observations spanning the last millennium suggest the presence of significant low-frequency (multi-decadal to centennial scale) variability in the climate system. Since this low-frequency climate variability is critical for climate predictions on societally-relevant scales, it is essential to establish whether General Circulation models (GCMs) are able to simulate it faithfully. Recent studies find large discrepancies between models and paleoclimate data at low frequencies, prompting concerns surrounding the ability of GCMs to predict long-term, high-magnitude variability under greenhouse forcing (Laepple and Huybers, 2014a, 2014b). However, efforts to ground climate model simulations directly in paleoclimate observations are impeded by fundamental differences between models and the proxy data: proxy systems often record a multivariate and/or nonlinear response to climate, precluding a direct comparison to GCM output. In this paper we bridge this gap via a forward proxy modeling approach, coupled to an isotope-enabled GCM. This allows us to disentangle the various contributions to signals embedded in ice cores, speleothem calcite, coral aragonite, tree-ring width, and tree-ring cellulose. The paper addresses the following questions: (1) do forward-modeled ;pseudoproxies; exhibit variability comparable to proxy data? (2) if not, which processes alter the shape of the spectrum of simulated climate variability, and are these processes broadly distinguishable from climate? We apply our method to representative case studies, and broaden these insights with an analysis of the PAGES2k database (PAGES2K Consortium, 2013). We find that current proxy system models (PSMs) can help resolve model-data discrepancies on interannual to decadal timescales, but cannot account for the mismatch in variance on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. We conclude that, specific to this set of PSMs and isotope-enabled model, the paleoclimate record may exhibit larger low-frequency variability than GCMs currently simulate, indicative of incomplete physics and/or forcings.

Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM2.5 and O3 in northern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karambelas, Alexandra; Holloway, Tracey; Kinney, Patrick L.; Fiore, Arlene M.; DeFries, Ruth; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Heyes, Chris

2018-06-01

Ambient air pollution in India contributes to negative health impacts and early death. Ground-based monitors often used to quantify health impacts are located in urban regions, yet approximately 70% of India’s population lives in rural communities. We simulate high-resolution concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM) and ozone from the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality model over northern India, including updated estimates of anthropogenic emissions for transportation, residential combustion and location-based industrial and electrical generating emissions in a new anthropogenic emissions inventory. These simulations inform seasonal air quality and health impacts due to anthropogenic emissions, contrasting urban versus rural regions. For our northern India domain, we estimate 463 200 (95% confidence interval: 444 600–482 600) adults die prematurely each year from PM2.5 and that 37 800 (28 500–48 100) adults die prematurely each year from O3. This translates to 5.8 deaths per 10 000 attributable to air pollution out of an annual rate of 72 deaths per 10 000 (8.1% of deaths) using 2010 estimates. We estimate that the majority of premature deaths resulting from PM2.5 and O3 are in rural (383 600) as opposed to urban (117 200) regions, where we define urban as cities and towns with populations of at least 100 000 people. These findings indicate the need for rural monitoring and appropriate health studies to understand and mitigate the effects of ambient air pollution on this population in addition to supporting model evaluation.

Low genetic diversity and strong population structure shaped by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation in a critically endangered primate, Trachypithecus leucocephalus.

PubMed

Wang, W; Qiao, Y; Li, S; Pan, W; Yao, M

2017-06-01

Habitat fragmentation may strongly impact population genetic structure and reduce the genetic diversity and viability of small and isolated populations. The white-headed langur (Trachypithecus leucocephalus) is a critically endangered primate species living in a highly fragmented and human-modified habitat in southern China. We examined the population genetic structure and genetic diversity of the species and investigated the environmental and anthropogenic factors that may have shaped its population structure. We used 214 unique multi-locus genotypes from 41 social groups across the main distribution area of T. leucocephalus, and found strong genetic structure and significant genetic differentiation among local populations. Our landscape genetic analyses using a causal modelling framework suggest that a large habitat gap and geographical distance represent the primary landscape elements shaping genetic structure, yet high levels of genetic differentiation also exist between patches separated by a small habitat gap or road. This is the first comprehensive study that has evaluated the population genetic structure and diversity of T. leucocephalus using nuclear markers. Our results indicate strong negative impacts of anthropogenic land modifications and habitat fragmentation on primate genetic connectivity between forest patches. Our analyses suggest that two management units of the species could be defined, and indicate that habitat continuity should be enforced and restored to reduce genetic isolation and enhance population viability.

An optimised multi-host trematode life cycle: fishery discards enhance trophic parasite transmission to scavenging birds.

PubMed

Born-Torrijos, Ana; Poulin, Robert; Pérez-Del-Olmo, Ana; Culurgioni, Jacopo; Raga, Juan Antonio; Holzer, Astrid Sibylle

2016-10-01

Overlapping distributions of hosts and parasites are critical for successful completion of multi-host parasite life cycles and even small environmental changes can impact on the parasite's presence in a host or habitat. The generalist Cardiocephaloides longicollis was used as a model for multi-host trematode life cycles in marine habitats. This parasite was studied to quantify parasite dispersion and transmission dynamics, effects of biological changes and anthropogenic impacts on life cycle completion. We compiled the largest host dataset to date, by analysing 3351 molluscs (24 species), 2108 fish (25 species) and 154 birds (17 species) and analysed the resultant data based on a number of statistical models. We uncovered extremely low host specificity at the second intermediate host level and a preference of the free-swimming larvae for predominantly demersal but also benthic fish. The accumulation of encysted larvae in the brain with increasing fish size demonstrates that parasite numbers level off in fish larger than 140mm, consistent with parasite-induced mortality at these levels. The highest infection rates were detected in host species and sizes representing the largest fraction of Mediterranean fishery discards (up to 67% of the total catch), which are frequently consumed by seabirds. Significantly higher parasite densities were found in areas with extensive fishing activity than in those with medium and low activity, and in fish from shallow lagoons than in fish from other coastal areas. For the first time, C. longicollis was also detected in farmed fish in netpens. Fishing generally drives declines in parasite abundance, however, our study suggests an enhanced transmission of generalist parasites such as C. longicollis, an effect that is further amplified by the parasite's efficient host-finding mechanisms and its alteration of fish host behaviour by larvae encysted in the brain. The anthropogenic impact on the distribution of trophically-transmitted, highly prevalent parasites likely results in a strong effect on food web structure, thus making C. longicollis an ideal bioindicator to compare food webs in natural communities versus those impacted by fisheries and aquaculture. Copyright © 2016 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of Strict vs. Multiple Use Protected Areas in Reducing Tropical Forest Fires: A Global Analysis Using Matching Methods

PubMed Central

Nelson, Andrew; Chomitz, Kenneth M.

2011-01-01

Protected areas (PAs) cover a quarter of the tropical forest estate. Yet there is debate over the effectiveness of PAs in reducing deforestation, especially when local people have rights to use the forest. A key analytic problem is the likely placement of PAs on marginal lands with low pressure for deforestation, biasing comparisons between protected and unprotected areas. Using matching techniques to control for this bias, this paper analyzes the global tropical forest biome using forest fires as a high resolution proxy for deforestation; disaggregates impacts by remoteness, a proxy for deforestation pressure; and compares strictly protected vs. multiple use PAs vs indigenous areas. Fire activity was overlaid on a 1 km map of tropical forest extent in 2000; land use change was inferred for any point experiencing one or more fires. Sampled points in pre-2000 PAs were matched with randomly selected never-protected points in the same country. Matching criteria included distance to road network, distance to major cities, elevation and slope, and rainfall. In Latin America and Asia, strict PAs substantially reduced fire incidence, but multi-use PAs were even more effective. In Latin America, where there is data on indigenous areas, these areas reduce forest fire incidence by 16 percentage points, over two and a half times as much as naïve (unmatched) comparison with unprotected areas would suggest. In Africa, more recently established strict PAs appear to be effective, but multi-use tropical forest protected areas yield few sample points, and their impacts are not robustly estimated. These results suggest that forest protection can contribute both to biodiversity conservation and CO2 mitigation goals, with particular relevance to the REDD agenda. Encouragingly, indigenous areas and multi-use protected areas can help to accomplish these goals, suggesting some compatibility between global environmental goals and support for local livelihoods. PMID:21857950

Tracking the history of metal smelting in Southeastern Europe throughout the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veres, Daniel; Chauvel, Catherine; Longman, Jack; Atlas, Zachary; Haliuc, Aritina; Ersek, Vasile; Tomas; Gabriel, Colin; Gogaltan, Florin; Magyari, Enikö; Schäbitz, Frank

2016-04-01

The exploitation of mineral resources, an essential driver of societal development, also induces long lasting impacts on the global ecosystem. Aerosols are released during mining, smelting and combustion (including volatilized elements and chemical aggregates) and they are deposited further away onto peats or lake sediments. The geochemical study of such proxies coupled with isotopic tracing of pollution sources and ore bodies provides an indirect, albeit fundamental view on such past human activities. Here we present newly acquired high-resolution geochemical (major and trace elements), lead isotopic ratios (206-207-208Pb/204Pb) and sedimentological data on several peat records from the Romanian Carpathians that cover a time frame longer than 8000 years, with a special focus over periods with enhanced human impact on the environment, such as the Early Metal Ages, the Antiquity, Medieval and the recent past. We distinguish signatures related to the natural cycling of elements from the anthropogenic contributions due to natural resource exploitation (land, forestry), mining, and smelting activities. Together with existing geological, archaeological, and archaeometric evidences, our results provide the first comprehensive record on the long-term history of metal-use development in the Carpathian region. Through a comparison with records from other parts of Europe we document the existence of strong regional differences in the magnitude, temporal, as well as spatial shifts in our understanding of past emission sources. We therefore show that the existing picture of past pollution load and temporal variability at the European scale is incomplete because it is mainly based on western records without considering the long-term pollution inputs from southeastern Europe, a region with significant mineral endowment and long-lasting human impact on the environment driven by the early rise of agricultural and metal processing activities. The authors acknowledge financial support from project PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0530 "Millennial-scale geochemical records of anthropogenic impact and natural climate change in the Romanian Carpathians", contract nr. 15/02.09.2013.

Climate variability and human impact in South America during the last 2000 years: synthesis and perspectives from pollen records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flantua, S. G. A.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Vuille, M.; Behling, H.; Carson, J. F.; Gosling, W. D.; Hoyos, I.; Ledru, M. P.; Montoya, E.; Mayle, F.; Maldonado, A.; Rull, V.; Tonello, M. S.; Whitney, B. S.; González-Arango, C.

2016-02-01

An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past 2 millennia. Global efforts to model regional climate modes are in the process of being validated against, and integrated with, records of past vegetation change. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to an absence of information on the spatial and temporal coverage of study sites. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last 2 millennia. We identify 60 vegetation (pollen) records from across South America which satisfy geochronological requirements set out for climate modelling, and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local-scale responses to climate modes; thus, it is necessary to understand how vegetation-climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. We provide a qualitative translation from pollen metrics to climate variables. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. We discuss evidence for human land use in pollen records and provide an overview considered useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. This manuscript forms part of the wider LOng-Term multi-proxy climate REconstructions and Dynamics in South America - 2k initiative that provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various palaeoclimatic subdisciplines and palaeo-science, thereby jump-starting and fostering multidisciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial timescales.

Distribution and ecological risk assessment of organic and inorganic pollutants in the sediments of the transnational Begej canal (Serbia-Romania).

PubMed

Dubovina, Miloš; Krčmar, Dejan; Grba, Nenad; Watson, Malcolm A; Rađenović, Dunja; Tomašević-Pilipović, Dragana; Dalmacija, Božo

2018-05-01

This research is designed to determine the level and types of pollution in the highly contaminated sediments of the international Begej canal in Timiş district, Romania and north-eastern Serbia. The cross-border canal stretch investigated is currently not navigable, but represents an important waterway between the Danube River in Serbia and the city of Timisoara. Surface sediments were monitored annually from 2008 to 2016 at 36 representative sampling locations, with a wide range of analyses, including eight heavy metals of long-term monitoring concern (Ni, Zn, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, As and Hg) and the 16 USEPA PAHs. The purpose of this study was to determine the diversity and impact of anthropogenic and natural sources of pollution at the pollution hot spots on the canal: at the Itebej lock (near the border with Romania) and downstream at the Klek lock. Sediment quality and ecological risk were assessed in order to determine pollutants of concern. Several multi-proxies were applied (e.g. geo-accumulation index (I geo ), ecological risk index (RI) and total benzo[a]pyrene equivalent (B[a]P eq )). To determine and predict trends, multivariate statistical methods (factor analysis of principal component analysis (PCA/FA)) were carried out on the organic and inorganic parameters analysed. In the near-border region, acute and significant ecological impacts were observed. The heavy metals Hg, Cr, Pb, Cu and Zn, and the carcinogenic PAH dibenzo[a,h]anthracene, were historically the most frequently detected harmful substances to biota in this and the wider Pannonia region. This is the first long-term study to quantify and derivate the most frequently detected harmful substances of concern for this and similar sites in the wider region, and is additionally supported by significant national and similar environmental data from previous studies in the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-proxy records of Eocene vegetation and climatic dynamics from North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheldon, N. D.; Smith, S. Y.; Stromberg, C. A.; Hyland, E.; Miller, L. A.

2010-12-01

The Eocene is characterized by a “thermal maximum” in the early part, and a shift to “icehouse” conditions by the end of the epoch. Consequently, this is an interesting time to look at vegetation dynamics and understanding plant responses to environmental change, especially as refinement of global climate models is needed if we are to understand future climate change impacts. Paleobotanical evidence, such as phytoliths (plant silica bodies), and paleoenvironmental indicators, such as paleosols, offer an opportunity to study vegetation composition and dynamics in the absence of macrofossils on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To examine the interaction between paleoclimatic/paleoenvironmental changes and paleovegetation changes, we will compare and contrast two well-dated, high-resolution, multi-proxy records from North America. The margins of the Green River Basin system during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (53-50 Ma) are an extremely important location for understanding ecological composition and potential climatic drivers of North American floral diversification, because this area is widely considered the point of origin for many modern grass clades. We examined paleosols preserved in the fluvial, basin-margin Wasatch Formation preserved near South Pass, Wyoming. Field identification of the paleosols indicated a suite that includes Entisols, Inceptisols, and Alfisols. To reconstruct paleovegetation, pedogenic carbonates were analyzed isotopically, and samples were collected and extracted for phytoliths . By combining these paleobotanical proxies with quantitative climatic proxies on whole rock geochemistry, we will present an integrated vegetation-climate history of the EECO at the margins of the Green River Basin. Second, we will present high-resolution record of vegetation patterns based on phytoliths from a section of the Renova Formation, Timberhills region, Montana dated to 39.2 ± 3 Ma. The section is composed of Alfisols, Entisols, Inceptisols, and composite paleosols superimposed onto floodplain sediments. Phytoliths from 27 paleosol horizons were extracted to reconstruct a high-resolution vegetation history. Phytolith morphotypes are predominantly from forest plants, confirming the presence of forests in Montana ~40 Ma. Tropical elements such as palms (Arecaceae) and spiral gingers (Costaceae) are present throughout the section, suggesting this was a paratropical forest. The high-resolution sampling demonstrates that vegetation shifts between three main dominant plant types: woody forest plants, Costaceae, and grasses. The heterogeneity is likely due to succession and vegetation patchiness. High proportions of grasses are correlated with low numbers of aquatic biosilica (diatoms, sponge spicules, chrysophytes) that suggests that these grasses were tolerant of relatively drier conditions, while Costaceae today inhabit forest gaps and margins so represent a specific microhabitat associated with the forest plants. Taken in concert, these two new studies provide examples of high-resolution, multi-proxy records of paleovegetation that can be compared with regional paleoclimatic reconstructions to examine the interplay between climatic and biotic change.

The response of tree ring δ15N to whole-watershed urea fertilization at the Fernow Experimental Forest, WV

Treesearch

Mark B. Burnham; Brenden E. McNeil; Mary Beth Adams; William T. Peterjohn

2016-01-01

Plant tissue δ15N is frequently used as a proxy for N availability and N cycle dynamics, and the δ15N signature of tree rings could potentially be used to reconstruct past changes in the N cycle due to forest disturbance or anthropogenic N deposition. However, there are substantial uncertainties regarding how effectively...

Carbon sequestration potential and physicochemical properties differ between wildfire charcoals and slow-pyrolysis biochars.

PubMed

Santín, Cristina; Doerr, Stefan H; Merino, Agustin; Bucheli, Thomas D; Bryant, Rob; Ascough, Philippa; Gao, Xiaodong; Masiello, Caroline A

2017-09-11

Pyrogenic carbon (PyC), produced naturally (wildfire charcoal) and anthropogenically (biochar), is extensively studied due to its importance in several disciplines, including global climate dynamics, agronomy and paleosciences. Charcoal and biochar are commonly used as analogues for each other to infer respective carbon sequestration potentials, production conditions, and environmental roles and fates. The direct comparability of corresponding natural and anthropogenic PyC, however, has never been tested. Here we compared key physicochemical properties (elemental composition, δ 13 C and PAHs signatures, chemical recalcitrance, density and porosity) and carbon sequestration potentials of PyC materials formed from two identical feedstocks (pine forest floor and wood) under wildfire charring- and slow-pyrolysis conditions. Wildfire charcoals were formed under higher maximum temperatures and oxygen availabilities, but much shorter heating durations than slow-pyrolysis biochars, resulting in differing physicochemical properties. These differences are particularly relevant regarding their respective roles as carbon sinks, as even the wildfire charcoals formed at the highest temperatures had lower carbon sequestration potentials than most slow-pyrolysis biochars. Our results challenge the common notion that natural charcoal and biochar are well suited as proxies for each other, and suggest that biochar's environmental residence time may be underestimated when based on natural charcoal as a proxy, and vice versa.

50 Years of coastal erosion analysis: A new methodological approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prieto Campos, Antonio; Diaz Cuevas, Pilar; Ojeda zujar, Jose; Guisado-Pintado, Emilia

2017-04-01

Coasts over the world have been subjected to increased anthropogenic pressures which combined with natural hazards impacts (storm events, rising sea-levels) have led to strong erosion problems with negative impacts on the economy and the safety of coastal communities. The Andalusian coast (South Spain) is a renowned global tourist destination. In the past decades a deep transformation in the economic model led to significant land use changes: strong regulation of rivers, urbanisation and occupation of dunes, among others. As a result irreversible transformations on the coastline, from the aggressive urbanisation undertaken, are now to be faced by local authorities and suffered by locals and visitors. Moreover, the expected impacts derived from the climate change aggravated by anthropic activities emphasises the need for tools that facilitates decision making for a sustainable coastal management. In this contribution a homogeneous (only a proxy and one photointerpreter) methodology is proposed for the calculation of coastal erosion rates of exposed beaches in Andalusia (640 km) through the use of detailed series (1:2500) of open source orthophotographies for the period (1956-1977-2001-2011). The outstanding combination of the traditional software DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) with a spatial database (PostgreSQL) which integrates the resulting erosion rates with related coastal thematic information (geomorphology, presence of engineering infrastructures, dunes and ecosystems) enhances the capacity of analysis and exploitation. Further, the homogeneity of the method used allows the comparison of the results among years in a highly diverse coast, with both Mediterranean and Atlantic façades. The novelty development and integration of a PostgreSQL/Postgis database facilitates the exploitation of the results by the user (for instance by relating calculated rates with other thematic information as geomorphology of the coast or the presence of a dune field on that transect). While the proxy, the most recommended in the research literature, defined as the upper limit of the beach active profile (backshore/foredune, cliff or infrastructure limit if exists) guarantees the exclusion of uncertainties linked to either, tides regime (very important in the Atlantic sector) and any seasonal variations of the beach profile. Spatially, results show a predominance of sectors under erosion (52% -312km - for global period 1956-2011 and 42% -249 km- for most recent period of time 1977-2011), corresponding to mean retreats of 28 m and 20 m for each period respectively. Paradoxically, when incorporating the accumulative rates (positive and negative) for each period, accretional areas appear to be greater than erosional ones, as the methodology simplifies calculations and thus consider coastal erosion as two-dimensional (distances between proxies) whereas it is a three-dimensional process. Greater erosion occurs along the Mediterranean coast as well as progressive reduction of eroded and accreted sectors on behalf of an induced increment of stable sectors driven by the presence of coastal infrastructures (promenades, seawalls, and breakwater) which prevent the shoreline from migrating inland. The usability of the methodology and its integration on a web-based viewer undoubtedly offers a new opportunity of data exploitation, as combines natural and anthropogenic factors involved in coastal erosion/accretion in a simple but effective way.

δ15N as a Potential Paleoenvironmental Proxy for Nitrogen Loading in Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, H. D.; Andrus, C. F.; Rick, T.; Hines, A.

2013-12-01

Stable isotope analysis of Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea virginica) and other mollusk shells from archaeological sites is a useful means of acquiring paleoenvironmental data. Recently, nitrogen isotopes have been identified as a potential new proxy in these shells. δ15N content in mollusk shells is affected by numerous anthropogenic and natural influences and may be used as an environmental proxy for nitrogen loading conditions. Chesapeake Bay is well known for both historic and modern pollution problems from numerous anthropogenic sources, such as fertilizer runoff, sewage discharge, and densely populated land use and serves as an ideal study location for long-term nitrogen loading processes. Longer records of these processes may be recorded in abundant archaeological remains around the bay, however, little is known about the stability of δ15N and %N in shell material over recent geologic time. In this study, 90 archaeological C. virginica shells were collected by the Smithsonian Institution from the Rhode River Estuary within Chesapeake Bay and range in age from ~150 to 3200 years old. Twenty-two modern C. virginica shells were also collected from nearby beds in the bay. All shell samples were subsampled from the resilifer region of the calcitic shell using a hand-held micro drill and were analyzed using EA-IRMS analysis to determine the potential temporal variability of δ15N and %N as well as creating a baseline for ancient nitrogen conditions in the bay area. Modern POM water samples and C. virginica soft tissues were also analyzed in this study to determine the degree of seasonal variation of δ15N and %N in Chesapeake Bay.

Multi-centennial Record of Labrador Sea Primary Productivity and Sea-Ice Variability Archived in Coralline Algal Ba/Ca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Phoebe; Halfar, Jochen; Adey, Walter; Hetzinger, Steffen; Zack, Thomas; Moore, Kent; Wortmann, Ulrich; Williams, Branwen; Hou, Alicia

2017-04-01

Arctic sea-ice thickness and concentration have dropped by approximately 9% per decade since 1978. Concurrent with this sea-ice decline is an increase in rates of phytoplankton productivity, driven by shoaling of the mixed layer and enhanced transmittance of solar radiation into the surface ocean. This has recently been confirmed by phytoplankton studies in Arctic and Subarctic basins that have revealed earlier timing, prolonged duration, and increased primary productivity of the spring phytoplankton bloom. However, difficulties of navigating in remote ice-laden waters and harsh polar climates have often resulted in short and incomplete records of in-situ plankton abundance in the northwestern Labrador Sea. Alternatively, information of past ocean productivity may be gained through the study of trace nutrient distributions in the surface water column. Investigations of dissolved barium (Ba) concentrations in the Arctic reveal significant depletions of Ba in surface seawaters due to biological scavenging during the spring phytoplankton bloom. Here we apply a barium-to-calcium (Ba/Ca) and carbon isotope (δ13C) multiproxy approach to long-lived crustose coralline algae in order to reconstruct an annually-resolved multi-centennial record of Labrador Sea productivity related to sea-ice variability in Labrador, Canada that extends well into the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1646 AD). The crustose coralline alga Clathromorphum compactum is a shallow marine calcareous plant that is abundant along the eastern Canadian coastline, and produces annual growth increments which allow for the precise calendar dating and geochemical sampling of hard tissue. Algal Ba/Ca ratios can serve as a promising new proxy for surface water productivity, demonstrating a close correspondence to δ13C that does not suffer from the anthropogenically-induced carbon isotope decline (ex. Suess Effect) beginning in the 1960s. Coralline algal Ba/Ca demonstrates statistically significant correlations to both observational and proxy records of sea-ice extent and transport variability, and shows a persistent pattern of covariability that is broadly consistent with the timing and phasing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Lower algal Ba/Ca values are interpreted as increased productivity (via biological scavenging) coinciding with warming sea surface temperatures and melting of sea-ice, and vice versa. This relationship is further supported by negative correlations between algal Ba/Ca and spatially averaged chlorophyll α concentrations determined from Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS; 1998 - 2009) ocean colour data. Extended comparisons to a multi-centennial tree-ring proxy AMO index demonstrates more frequent positive Ba/Ca excursions (indicating reduced productivity) associated with AMO cool phases during the Little Ice Age, followed by a step-wise decline in Ba/Ca (indicating increasing productivity) from 1910 to present levels - unprecedented in the last 365 years. Our multi-centennial record of coralline algal Ba/Ca in the Subarctic northwest Atlantic demonstrates a long-term increasing trend in primary productivity that is in agreement with recent satellite-based productivity in the Arctic Ocean. This ongoing increase in phytoplankton productivity is expected to fundamentally alter marine biodiversity and trophic dynamics as warming and freshening of the surface layer is projected to intensify over the coming century.

ENSO and anthropogenic impacts on phytoplankton diversity in tropical coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doan-Nhu, Hai; Nguyen-Ngoc, Lam; Nguyen, Chi-Thoi

2016-01-01

16-year phytoplankton data were analysed to assess ENSO and anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity and community structure at 3 locations (Nha-Trang and Phan-Thiet Bays and near Phu-Qui Island) in South Centre Viet Nam to understand (1) the primary scales of change in phytoplankton community structure, and traditional and taxonomic diversity indices; (2) the significance of environmental changes and/or climate variability on phytoplankton diversity; and (3) the usefulness of these long-term data for analysing future impacts of anthropogenic and climate changes. Traditional and taxonomic diversity indices were compared and tested in linkage with environmental conditions and ENSO. Nutrient data indicated stronger environmental impacts in Phan-Thiet Bay, milder in Nha-Trang Bay and less noticeable near Phu-Qui Island. There were measurable impacts of both anthropogenic and ENSO on phytoplankton at different locations in various parameters, e.g. species number, diversity and community structures. The lowest diversity was recorded in the most anthropogenically impacted site, Phan-Thiet Bay. Although a stronger impact on phytoplankton was recorded in ENSO year in Phan Thiet Bay, quantitative separation between anthropogenic and ENSO impacts using phytoplankton biodiversity indices was impossible. In the waters with less anthropogenic impacts, ENSO effects on taxonomic diversity was better indicated by negative phytoplankton responses to the ONI index (Nha-Trang Bay) and recovery of phytoplankton after the ENSO events (near Phu-Qui Island). Among the diversity indices, the taxonomic diversity indices (e.g. Δ+ and Λ+) better described impacts of ENSO than the traditional ones.

The Galapagos archipelago: A natural laboratory to examine sharp hydroclimatic, geologic and anthropogenic gradients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Percy, Madelyn; Schmitt, Sarah; Riveros-Iregui, Diego; Mirus, Benjamin B.

2016-01-01

Poor understanding of the water cycle in tropical ecosystems has the potential to exacerbate water shortages and water crises in the region. We suggest that the Galápagos Islands provide an excellent proxy to regions across the tropics as a result of sharp hydroclimatic, anthropogenic, and pedohydrologic gradients across the archipelago. Hydroclimatic and pedohydrologic gradients are found across different elevations on single islands, as well as across the archipelago, whereas anthropogenic gradients reflect land use and land cover change across islands as population and growth in tourism have affected individual islands differently. This article highlights specific opportunities to further examine our understanding of the interactions between water and critical zone processes in tropical ecosystems, making connections between the Galápagos archipelago and much of the understudied tropics. The Galápagos archipelago offers a natural laboratory through which we can examine current threats to freshwater security as well as the dynamics of coupled natural and human systems.

Multi-objective spatial tools to inform maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Depellegrin, Daniel; Menegon, Stefano; Farella, Giulio; Ghezzo, Michol; Gissi, Elena; Sarretta, Alessandro; Venier, Chiara; Barbanti, Andrea

2017-12-31

This research presents a set of multi-objective spatial tools for sea planning and environmental management in the Adriatic Sea Basin. The tools address four objectives: 1) assessment of cumulative impacts from anthropogenic sea uses on environmental components of marine areas; 2) analysis of sea use conflicts; 3) 3-D hydrodynamic modelling of nutrient dispersion (nitrogen and phosphorus) from riverine sources in the Adriatic Sea Basin and 4) marine ecosystem services capacity assessment from seabed habitats based on an ES matrix approach. Geospatial modelling results were illustrated, analysed and compared on country level and for three biogeographic subdivisions, Northern-Central-Southern Adriatic Sea. The paper discusses model results for their spatial implications, relevance for sea planning, limitations and concludes with an outlook towards the need for more integrated, multi-functional tools development for sea planning. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

MULPEX: A compact multi-layered polymer foil collector for micrometeoroids and orbital debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearsley, A. T.; Graham, G. A.; Burchell, M. J.; Taylor, E. A.; Drolshagen, G.; Chater, R. J.; McPhail, D.

Detailed studies of preserved hypervelocity impact residues on spacecraft multi-layer insulation foils have yielded important information about the flux of small particles from different sources in low-Earth orbit (LEO). We have extended our earlier research on impacts occurring in LEO to design and testing of a compact capture device. MUlti- Layer Polymer EXperiment (MULPEX) is simple, cheap to build, lightweight, of no power demand, easy to deploy, and optimised for the efficient collection of impact residue for analysis on return to Earth. The capture medium is a stack of very thin (8 and 40 μm) polyimide foils, supported on poly-tetrafluoroethylene sheet frames, surrounded by a protective aluminium casing. The uppermost foil has a very thin metallic coating for thermal protection and resistance to atomic oxygen and ultra-violet exposure. The casing provides a simple detachable interface for deployment on the spacecraft, facing into the desired direction for particle collection. On return to the laboratory, the stacked foils are separated for examination in a variable pressure scanning electron microscope, without need for surface coating. Analysis of impact residue is performed using energy dispersive X-ray spectrometers. Our laboratory experiments, utilising buck-shot firings of analogues to micrometeoroids (35-38 μm olivine) and space debris (4 μm alumina and 1 mm stainless steel) in a light gas gun, have shown that impact residue is abundant within the foil layers, and preserves a record of the impacting particle, whether of micrometer or millimetre dimensions. Penetrations of the top foil are easily recognised, and act as a proxy for dimensions of the penetrating particle. Impact may cause disruption and melting, but some residue retains sufficient crystallographic structure to show clear Raman lines, diagnostic of the original mineral.

MULPEX: a compact multi-layered polymer foil collector for micrometeoroids and orbital debris.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearsley, A. T.; Graham, G. A.; Burchell, M. J.; Taylor, E. A.; Drolshagen, G.; Chater, R. J.; McPhail, D.

Detailed studies of preserved hypervelocity impact residues on spacecraft multi-layer insulation foils have yielded important information about the flux of small particles from different sources in low-Earth orbit (LEO). We have extended our earlier research on impacts occurring in LEO to design and testing of a compact capture device. MULPEX (MUlti-Layer Polymer EXperiment) is simple, cheap to build, lightweight, of no power demand, easy to deploy, and optimised for the efficient collection of impact residue for analysis on return to Earth. The capture medium is a stack of very thin (8 micron and 40 micron) polyimide foils, supported on poly-tetrafluoroethylene sheet frames, surrounded by a protective aluminium casing. The uppermost foil has a very thin metallic coating for thermal protection and resistance to atomic oxygen and ultra-violet exposure. The casing provides a simple detachable interface for deployment on the spacecraft, facing into the desired direction for particle collection. On return to the laboratory, the stacked foils are separated for examination in a variable pressure scanning electron microscope, without need for surface coating. Analysis of impact residue is performed using energy dispersive X-ray spectrometers. Our laboratory experiments, utilising buck-shot firings of analogues to micrometeoroids (35-38 micron olivine) and space debris (4 micron alumina and 1mm stainless steel) in a light gas gun, have shown that impact residue is abundant within the foil layers, and preserves a record of the impacting particle, whether of micrometer or millimetre dimensions. Penetrations of the top foil are easily recognised, and act as a proxy for dimensions of the penetrating particle. Impact may cause disruption and melting, but some residue retains sufficient crystallographic structure to show clear Raman lines, diagnostic of the original mineral.

Potentiation of ecological factors on the disruption of thyroid hormones by organo-halogenated contaminants in female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Barents Sea.

PubMed

Bourgeon, Sophie; Riemer, Astrid Kolind; Tartu, Sabrina; Aars, Jon; Polder, Anuschka; Jenssen, Bjørn Munro; Routti, Heli

2017-10-01

As apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are among the most heavily polluted organisms in the Arctic. In addition to this anthropogenic stressor, climate warming has been shown to negatively affect their body condition, reproductive output and survival. Among potential underlying physiological mechanisms, thyroid hormones (THs), which control thermoregulation, metabolism and reproduction, can be affected by a variety of both natural and anthropogenic factors. While THs have been extensively used as proxies for pollution exposure in mammals, including polar bears, there is a lack of knowledge of their natural variations. In this context, we examined seasonal variations in body condition and circulating TH concentrations in free-ranging female polar bears. Females with variable reproductive status (i.e., solitary, with cubs of the year or with yearlings) were sampled from locations with contrasted sea ice conditions. Furthermore, we studied THs in relation to levels of organo-halogenated contaminants. As predicted, solitary females were in better condition than females caring for offspring, especially in spring. In addition, TH levels were lower in autumn compared to spring, although this seasonal effect was mainly observed in solitary females. Finally, the negative relationships between organochlorine and perfluoroalkyl substances and some THs suggest a possible alteration of homeostasis of THs. Since the latter relationships were only observed during spring, we emphasize the importance of considering the ecological factors when using THs as proxies for pollution exposure. Yet, the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors on THs might impair the ability of polar bears to adapt to ongoing climate changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geochemistry of recent aragonite-rich sediments in Mediterranean karstic marine lakes: Trace elements as pollution and palaeoredox proxies and indicators of authigenic mineral formation.

PubMed

Sondi, Ivan; Mikac, Nevenka; Vdović, Neda; Ivanić, Maja; Furdek, Martina; Škapin, Srečo D

2017-02-01

This study investigates the geochemical characteristics of recent shallow-water aragonite-rich sediments from the karstic marine lakes located in the pristine environment on the island of Mljet (Adriatic Sea). Different trace elements were used as authigenic mineral formation, palaeoredox and pollution indicators. The distribution and the historical record of trace elements deposition mostly depended on the sedimentological processes associated with the formation of aragonite, early diagenetic processes governed by the prevailing physico-chemical conditions and on the recent anthropogenic activity. This study demonstrated that Sr could be used as a proxy indicating authigenic formation of aragonite in a marine carbonate sedimentological environment. Distribution of the redox sensitive elements Mo, Tl, U and Cd was used to identify changes in redox conditions in the investigated lake system and to determine the geochemical cycle of these elements through environmental changes over the last 100 years. The significant enrichment of these elements and the presence of early formed nanostructured authigenic framboidal pyrite in laminated deeper parts of sediment in Malo Jezero, indicate sporadic events of oxygen-depleted euxinic conditions in the recent past. Concentrations of trace elements were in the range characteristic for non-contaminated marine carbonates. However, the increase in the concentrations of Zn, Cu, Pb, Sn, Bi in the upper-most sediment strata of Veliko Jezero indicates a low level of trace element pollution, resulting from anthropogenic inputs over the last 40 years. The presence of butyltin compounds (BuTs) in the surface sediment of Veliko Jezero additionally indicates the anthropogenic influence in the recent past. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proxy comparisons for Paleogene sea water temperature reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Bar, Marijke; de Nooijer, Lennart; Schouten, Stefan; Ziegler, Martin; Sluijs, Appy; Reichart, Gert-Jan

2017-04-01

Several studies have reconstructed Paleogene seawater temperatures, using single- or multi-proxy approaches (e.g. Hollis et al., 2012 and references therein), particularly comparing TEX86 with foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca. Whereas trends often agree relatively well, absolute temperatures can differ significantly between proxies, possibly because they are often applied to (extreme) climate events/transitions (e.g. Sluijs et al., 2011), where certain assumptions underlying the temperature proxies may not hold true. A more general long-term multi-proxy temperature reconstruction, is therefore necessary to validate the different proxies and underlying presumed boundary conditions. Here we apply a multi-proxy approach using foraminiferal calcite and organic proxies to generate a low-resolution, long term (80 Myr) paleotemperature record for the Bass River core (New Jersey, North Atlantic). Oxygen (δ18O), clumped isotopes (Δ47) and Mg/Ca of benthic foraminifera, as well as the organic proxies MBT'-CBT, TEX86H, U37K' index and the LDI were determined on the same sediments. The youngest samples of Miocene age are characterized by a high BIT index (>0.8) and fractional abundance of the C32 1,15-diol (>0.6; de Bar et al., 2016) and the absence of foraminifera, all suggesting high continental input and shallow depths. The older sediment layers (˜30 to 90 Ma) display BIT values and C32 1,15-diol fractional abundances <0.3, implying marine conditions. The temperature records (˜30 to 90 Ma) show the global transition from the Cretaceous to Eocene greenhouse world into the icehouse climate. The TEX86H sea surface temperature (SST) record shows a gradual cooling over time of ˜35 to 20 ˚ C, whereas the δ18O-derived bottom water temperatures (BWTs) decrease from ˜20 to 10 ˚ C, and the Mg/Ca and Δ47-derived BWTs decrease from ˜25 to 15 ˚ C. The absolute temperature difference between the δ18O and Δ47, might be explained by local variations in seawater δ18O composition. Similarly, the difference in Mg/Ca- and δ18O-derived BWTs is likely caused by uncertainties in the seawater Mg/Ca model and the relationship between the seawater Mg/Ca and the incorporation of Mg into the foraminiferal shell. The U37K' index could not be calculated as only di-unsaturated alkenones were identified, indicating that SSTs were > 28 ˚ C. In contrast, LDI temperatures were considerably lower and varied only between 21 and 19 ˚ C. MBT'-CBT derived mean annual temperatures for the ages of 9 and 20 Ma align well with the TEX86H SSTs. Overall, the agreement of the paleotemperature proxies in terms of main tendencies, and the covariation with the global benthic oxygen isotope compilation suggests that temperatures in this region varied in concert with global climate variability. The fact that offsets between the different proxies used here remain fairly constant down to 90 Ma ago, indicates that the fundamental mechanisms responsible for the proxy relation to temperature remained constant. de Bar, M. W., et al. (2016), Constraints on the application of long chain diol proxies in the Iberian Atlantic margin, Org. Geochem., 101, 184-195. Hollis, C. J., et al. (2012), Early Paleogene temperature history of the Southwest Pacific Ocean: Reconciling proxies and models, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 349, 53-66. Sluijs, A., et al. (2011), Southern ocean warming, sea level and hydrological change during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, Climate of the Past, 7(1), 47-61.

A High-Resolution Reconstruction of Late Holocene Environmental Change from Laguna Ek'Naab, Northern Holmul Region, Peten, Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, L.; Wahl, D.; Estrada-Belli, F.

2015-12-01

Widespread demographic shifts in the southern Maya lowlands at the end of the Classic period have been attributed to environmental change caused by human activity and/or climate variability. Fire was essential to landscape modification and was a primary agent of environmental change associated with prehispanic land use. While several studies have provided insight into the dynamic relationship between natural and anthropogenic drivers of change, defining the specific interplay between natural environmental change, human modification of the environment, and cultural response to changes remains a persistent challenge. Here we present the results of a multi-proxy study that reconstructs fire history, agricultural land use, and environmental change during and after Pre-Columbian Maya settlement. Results are interpreted in the context of settlement history as inferred from archaeological mapping around the study site. Our findings suggest landscape disturbance, as indicated by erosion, local burning, and nearby maize agriculture, was at its peak during the Early Classic period. This disturbance was likely due to large-scale settlement at the nearby site of Witzna'. All proxies indicate a slow decline in disturbance into the Late Classic period, beginning around 1300 cal yr BP. Cival and Chanchich, two proximal site centers to the south of Laguna Ek'Naab, supported their largest populations during the Late Preclassic and Late Classic, with little or no settlement during the Early Classic. The data from Laguna Ek'Naab suggests that Witzna' may have been an important center during the Early Classic. Whether the decreasing environmental degradation after 1240 cal yr BP is do to a decline in local population or changing land use strategies is not discernable based on the data thus far. However, the near complete absence of burning and continued decrease in erosion from 1240-1090 cal yr BP suggests little anthropogenic activity in the area. Burning resumes in the watershed around 1090 cal yr BP and persists until all evidence for agriculture and environmental disturbance disappears at 995 cal yr BP. Permanent abandonment is inferred based on the last appearance of Zea pollen, a lack of burning, and minimal clay input into Laguna Ek'Naab. After this time, the data suggest abandonment through the present.

Evaluation of I/Ca ratios in benthic foraminifera from the Peruvian oxygen minimum zone as proxy for redox conditions in the ambient water masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glock, N.; Liebetrau, V.; Eisenhauer, A.

2014-12-01

Tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are most important areas of oxygen depletion in today´s oceans and nutrient cycling in these regions has a large socio-economic impact because they account for about 17% of the global commercial fish catches(1). Possibly increasing magnitude and area of oxygen depletion in these regions, might endanger rich pelagic fish habitats in the future threatening the global marine food supply. By the use of a quantitative redox proxy in OMZs, reconstruction of the temporal variation in OMZ extension eventually providing information about past and future changes in oxygenation and the anthropogenic role in the recent trend of expanding OMZs(2). Recent work has shown that iodine/calcium (I/Ca) ratios in marine carbonates are a promising proxy for ambient oxygen concentration(3). Our study explores the correlation of I/Ca ratios in four benthic foraminiferal species (three calcitic, one aragonitic) from the Peruvian OMZ to bottom water oxygen concentrations ([O2]BW) and evaluates foraminiferal I/Ca ratios as a possible redox proxy for the ambient water masses. Our results show that all species have a positive trend in the I/Ca ratios as a function of [O2]BW. Only for the aragonitic species Hoeglundina elegans this trend is not significant. The highest significance has been found for Uvigerina striata (I/Ca = 0.032(±0.004).[O2]BW + 0.29(±0.03), R² = 0.61, F = 75, P < 0.0001). Although I/Ca ratios in benthic foraminifera appear to be a robust redox proxy there are some methodical issues which have to be considered. These "pitfalls" include: (i) the volatility of iodine in acidic solutions, (ii) a species dependency of the I/Ca-[O2]BW relationship which is either related to a strong vital effect or toa species dependency on the calcification depth within sediment, and (iii) the inter-test variability of I/Ca between different specimens from the same species and habitat. (1): FAO FishStat: Fisheries and aquaculture software. In: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department[online]. Rome. Updated 28 Nov. 2013. (2): Stramma et al.: Expanding Oxygen-Minimum Zones in the Tropical Oceans, Science, 320, 655-658, 2008. (3): Lu et al.: Iodine to calcium ratios in marine carbonate as a paleo-redox proxy during oceanic anoxic events, Geology, 38, 1107-1110, 2010.

Growth rates and geochemical proxies in Late Campanian bivalves - New insights from micro-X-ray Fluorescence mapping and numerical growth modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Winter, Niels; Goderis, Steven; van Malderen, Stijn; Vanhaecke, Frank; Claeys, Philippe

2017-04-01

Understanding the Late Cretaceous greenhouse climate is of vital importance for understanding present and future climate change. While a lot of good work has been done to reconstruct climate in this interesting period, most paleoclimatic studies have focused on long-term climate change[1]. Alternatively, multi-proxy records from marine bivalves provide us with a unique opportunity to study past climate on a seasonal scale. However, previous fossil bivalve studies have reported ambiguous results with regard to the interpretation of trace element and stable isotope proxies in marine bivalve shells[2]. One major problem in the interpretation of such records is the bivalve's vital effect and the occurrence of disequilibrium fractionation during bivalve growth. Both these problems are linked to the annual growth cycle of marine bivalves, which introduces internal effects on the incorporation of isotopes and trace elements into the shell[3]. Understanding this growth cycle in extinct bivalves is therefore of great importance for the interpretation of seasonal proxy records in their shells. In this study, three different species of extinct Late Campanian bivalves (two rudist species and one oyster species) that were found in the same stratigraphic interval are studied. Micro-X-Ray Fluorescence line scanning and mapping of trace elements such as Mg, Sr, S and Zn, calibrated by LA-ICP-MS measurements, is combined with microdrilled stable carbon and oxygen isotope analysis on the well-preserved part of the shells. Data of this multi-proxy study is compared with results from a numerical growth model written in the open-source statistics package R[4] and based on annual growth increments observed in the shells and shell thickness. This growth model is used together with proxy data to reconstruct rates of trace element incorporation into the shell and to calculate the mass balance of stable oxygen and carbon isotopes. In order to achieve this goal, 2D mapping of bivalve shell surfaces is combined with high-precision point measurements and linescans to characterize different carbonate facies within the shell and to model changes in proxy data in three dimensions. Comparison of sub-annual variations in growth rate and shell geometry with proxy data sheds light on the degree to which observed seasonal variations in geochemical proxies are dependent on internal mechanisms of shell growth as opposed to external mechanisms such as climatic and environmental change. The use of three different species of bivalve from the same paleoenvironment allows the examination of species-specific responses to environmental change. This study attempts to determine which proxies in which species of bivalve are suitable for paleoenvironmental reconstruction and will aid future paleoseasonality studies in interpreting seasonally resolved multi-proxy records. References 1 DeConto R.M., et al. Cambridge University Press; 2000. 2 Elliot M, et al., PPP 2009. 3 Steuber T. Geology. 1996. 4 R core team, 2004, www.R-project.org

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western United States (US) in recent decades has contributed to widespread forest mortality, carbon emissions, periods of degraded air quality, and substantial fire suppression expenditures. The increase in forest fire activity has likely been enabled by a number of factors including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, changes in suppression policies, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western US. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit have significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades. Comparing observational climate records to records recalculated after removal of modeled anthropogenic trends, we find that anthropogenic climate change accounted for approximately 55% of observed increases in the eight-metric mean fuel aridity during 1979-2015 across western US forests. This implicates anthropogenic climate change as an important driver of observed increases in fuel aridity, and also highlights the importance of natural multi-decadal climate variability in influencing trends in forest fire potential on the timescales of human lives. Based on a very strong (R2 = 0.76) and mechanistically reasonable relationship between interannual variability in the eight-metric mean fuel aridity and forest-fire area in the western US, we estimate that anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha (95% confidence range: 2.7-6.5 million ha) of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the total forest fire area expected in the absence of anthropogenic climate change. The relationship between annual forest fire area and fuel aridity is exponential and the proportion of total forest area burned in a given year has grown rapidly over the past 32 years. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a chronic driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so where fuels are not limiting.

Mangrove Bacterial Diversity and the Impact of Oil Contamination Revealed by Pyrosequencing: Bacterial Proxies for Oil Pollution

PubMed Central

dos Santos, Henrique Fragoso; Cury, Juliano Carvalho; do Carmo, Flávia Lima; dos Santos, Adriana Lopes; Tiedje, James; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Rosado, Alexandre Soares; Peixoto, Raquel Silva

2011-01-01

Background Mangroves are transitional coastal ecosystems in tropical and sub-tropical regions and represent biologically important and productive ecosystems. Despite their great ecological and economic importance, mangroves are often situated in areas of high anthropogenic influence, being exposed to pollutants, such as those released by oil spills. Methodology/Principal Findings A microcosm experiment was conducted, which simulated an oil spill in previously pristine mangrove sediment. The effect of the oil spill on the extant microbial community was studied using direct pyrosequencing. Extensive bacterial diversity was observed in the pristine mangrove sediment, even after oil contamination. The number of different OTUs only detected in contaminated samples was significantly higher than the number of OTUs only detected in non-contaminated samples. The phylum Proteobacteria, in particular the classes Gammaproteobacteria and Deltaproteobacteria, were prevalent before and after the simulated oil spill. On the other hand, the order Chromatiales and the genus Haliea decreased upon exposure to 2 and 5% oil, these are proposed as sensitive indicators of oil contamination. Three other genera, Marinobacterium, Marinobacter and Cycloclasticus increased their prevalence when confronted with oil. These groups are possible targets for the biomonitoring of the impact of oil in mangrove settings. Conclusions/Significance We suggest the use of sequences of the selected genera as proxies for oil pollution, using qPCR assessments. The quantification of these genera in distinct mangrove systems in relation to the local oil levels would permit the evaluation of the level of perturbance of mangroves, being useful in field monitoring. Considering the importance of mangroves to many other environments and the susceptibility of such areas to oil spills this manuscript will be of broad interest. PMID:21399677

The Role of Arctic Sea Ice in Last Millennium Climate Variability: Model-Proxy Comparisons Using Ensemble Members and Novel Model Experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gertler, C. G.; Monier, E.; Prinn, R. G.

2016-12-01

Variability in sea ice extent is a prominent feature of forced simulations of the last millennium and reconstructions of paleoclimate using proxy records. The rapid 20th century decline in sea ice extent is most likely due to greenhouse gas forcing, but the accuracy of future projections depend on the characterization of natural variability. Declining sea ice extent affects regional climate and society, but also plays a large role in Arctic amplification, with implications for mid-latitude circulation and even large-scale climate oscillations. To characterize the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on sea ice and the related changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, a combination of instrumental record, paleoclimate reconstructions, and general circulation models can be employed to recreate sea ice extents and the corresponding atmosphere-ocean states. Model output from the last millennium ensemble (LME) is compared to a proxy-based sea ice reconstruction and a global proxy network using a variety of statistical and data assimilation techniques. Further model runs using the Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) are performed with the same inputs as LME but forced with experimental sea ice extents, and results are contextualized within the larger ensemble by a variety of metrics.

Detecting small scale CO2 emission structures using OCO-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwandner, Florian M.; Eldering, Annmarie; Verhulst, Kristal R.; Miller, Charles E.; Nguyen, Hai M.; Oda, Tomohiro; O'Dell, Christopher; Rao, Preeti; Kahn, Brian; Crisp, David; Gunson, Michael R.; Sanchez, Robert M.; Ashok, Manasa; Pieri, David; Linick, Justin P.; Yuen, Karen

2016-04-01

Localized carbon dioxide (CO2) emission structures cover spatial domains of less than 50 km diameter and include cities and transportation networks, as well as fossil fuel production, upgrading and distribution infra-structure. Anthropogenic sources increasingly upset the natural balance between natural carbon sources and sinks. Mitigation of resulting climate change impacts requires management of emissions, and emissions management requires monitoring, reporting and verification. Space-borne measurements provide a unique opportunity to detect, quantify, and analyze small scale and point source emissions on a global scale. NASA's first satellite dedicated to atmospheric CO2 observation, the July 2014 launched Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2), now leads the afternoon constellation of satellites (A-Train). Its continuous swath of 2 to 10 km in width and eight footprints across can slice through coincident emission plumes and may provide momentary cross sections. First OCO-2 results demonstrate that we can detect localized source signals in the form of urban total column averaged CO2 enhancements of ~2 ppm against suburban and rural backgrounds. OCO-2's multi-sounding swath observing geometry reveals intra-urban spatial structures reflected in XCO2 data, previously unobserved from space. The transition from single-shot GOSAT soundings detecting urban/rural differences (Kort et al., 2012) to hundreds of soundings per OCO-2 swath opens up the path to future capabilities enabling urban tomography of greenhouse gases. For singular point sources like coal fired power plants, we have developed proxy detections of plumes using bands of imaging spectrometers with sensitivity to SO2 in the thermal infrared (ASTER). This approach provides a means to automate plume detection with subsequent matching and mining of OCO-2 data for enhanced detection efficiency and validation. © California Institute of Technology

Developing a multi-stressor gradient for coral reefs

EPA Science Inventory

Coral reefs are often found near coastal waters where multiple anthropogenic stressors co-occur at areas of human disturbance. Developing coral reef biocriteria under the U.S. Clean Water Act requires relationships between anthropogenic stressors and coral reef condition to be es...

Multi-proxy Organic Geochemical Reconstruction of Holocene Hydroclimate Near the Western Greenland Ice Sheet Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cluett, A.; Thomas, E. K.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic warming is projected to drive profound change to the Arctic hydrological cycle within the century, most notably in the intensification of rainfall, with potential feedbacks to the climate system and cryosphere. However, the relationship between hydroclimate and cryosphere variability is poorly constrained in the long-term due to a scarcity of high-resolution hydroclimate records from the Arctic. We analyze the stable hydrogen isotopes (dD) of leaf wax biomarkers from lacustrine sediments spanning the Holocene to 9000 cal. year B.P. from Lake Gus (67.032ºN, 52.427ºW, 300 m a.s.l.; informal name), a small lake approximately 90 km from the modern western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We interpret the signal of aquatic leaf wax isotopes in the context of a survey of 100 modern lake water samples from western Greenland across an aridity gradient to better understand the combined climatological and hydrological controls on lake water dD in the study area. We compare variability of aquatic and terrestrial leaf wax isotopes to infer changes in relative moisture throughout the Holocene, and complement our leaf wax record with analysis of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) and alkenones, to produce records of summer temperature. Pairing temperature and leaf wax isotope records provides a means to constrain the changing dD-temperature relationship throughout the Holocene and infer moisture source variability. In combination, these proxies produce a comprehensive hydroclimate record at approximately centennial scale to evaluate shifts in relative moisture, temperature, and moisture source, and to investigate the interaction between hydroclimate and Greenland Ice Sheet margin fluctuations through the Holocene.

Using ensemble models to identify and apportion heavy metal pollution sources in agricultural soils on a local scale.

PubMed

Wang, Qi; Xie, Zhiyi; Li, Fangbai

2015-11-01

This study aims to identify and apportion multi-source and multi-phase heavy metal pollution from natural and anthropogenic inputs using ensemble models that include stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) and random forest (RF) in agricultural soils on the local scale. The heavy metal pollution sources were quantitatively assessed, and the results illustrated the suitability of the ensemble models for the assessment of multi-source and multi-phase heavy metal pollution in agricultural soils on the local scale. The results of SGB and RF consistently demonstrated that anthropogenic sources contributed the most to the concentrations of Pb and Cd in agricultural soils in the study region and that SGB performed better than RF. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century.

PubMed

Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S J; Botzen, Wouter J W

2017-01-01

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed.

Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

PubMed Central

Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S. J.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.

2017-01-01

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed. PMID:28212384

Atlantic forcing of Western Mediterranean winter rain minima during the last 12,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielhofer, Christoph; Fletcher, William J.; Mischke, Steffen; De Batist, Marc; Campbell, Jennifer F. E.; Joannin, Sebastien; Tjallingii, Rik; El Hamouti, Najib; Junginger, Annett; Stele, Andreas; Bussmann, Jens; Schneider, Birgit; Lauer, Tobias; Spitzer, Katrin; Strupler, Michael; Brachert, Thomas; Mikdad, Abdeslam

2017-02-01

The limited availability of high-resolution continuous archives, insufficient chronological control, and complex hydro-climatic forcing mechanisms lead to many uncertainties in palaeo-hydrological reconstructions for the Western Mediterranean. In this study we present a newly recovered 19.63 m long core from Lake Sidi Ali in the North African Middle Atlas, a transition zone of Atlantic, Western Mediterranean and Saharan air mass trajectories. With a multi-proxy approach based on magnetic susceptibility, carbonate and total organic C content, core-scanning and quantitative XRF, stable isotopes of ostracod shells, charcoal counts, Cedrus pollen abundance, and a first set of diatom data, we reconstruct Western Mediterranean hydro-climatic variability, seasonality and forcing mechanisms during the last 12,000 yr. A robust chronological model based on AMS 14C dated pollen concentrates supports our high-resolution multi-proxy study. Long-term trends reveal low lake levels at the end of the Younger Dryas, during the mid-Holocene interval 6.6 to 5.4 cal ka BP, and during the last 3000 years. In contrast, lake levels are mostly high during the Early and Mid-Holocene. The record also shows sub-millennial- to centennial-scale decreases in Western Mediterranean winter rain at 11.4, 10.3, 9.2, 8.2, 7.2, 6.6, 6.0, 5.4, 5.0, 4.4, 3.5, 2.9, 2.2, 1.9, 1.7, 1.5, 1.0, 0.7, and 0.2 cal ka BP. Early Holocene winter rain minima are in phase with cooling events and millennial-scale meltwater discharges in the sub-polar North Atlantic. Our proxy parameters do not show so far a clear impact of Saharan air masses on Mediterranean hydro-climate in North Africa. However, a significant hydro-climatic shift at the end of the African Humid Period (∼5 ka) indicates a change in climate forcing mechanisms. The Late Holocene climate variability in the Middle Atlas features a multi-centennial-scale NAO-type pattern, with Atlantic cooling and Western Mediterranean winter rain maxima generally associated with solar minima.

Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James; Hartin, Corinne A.; Mundra, Anupriya; Calvin, Katherine

2015-04-01

Anthropogenically driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature. The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt. We find that present trends in greenhouse-gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 (ref. ) archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25 +/- 0.05 °C (1σ) per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous one to two millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here in this work, we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is stillmore » weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Finally, hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.« less

Caribbean coral growth influenced by anthropogenic aerosol emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Cox, Peter M.; Economou, Theo; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Carilli, Jessica; Guzman, Hector M.

2013-05-01

Coral growth rates are highly dependent on environmental variables such as sea surface temperature and solar irradiance. Multi-decadal variability in coral growth rates has been documented throughout the Caribbean over the past 150-200 years, and linked to variations in Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Multi-decadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, in turn, has been linked to volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Here, we examine the drivers of changes in coral growth rates in the western Caribbean between 1880 and 2000, using previously published coral growth chronologies from two sites in the region, and a numerical model. Changes in coral growth rates over this period coincided with variations in sea surface temperature and incoming short-wave radiation. Our model simulations show that variations in the concentration of anthropogenic aerosols caused variations in sea surface temperature and incoming radiation in the second half of the twentieth century. Before this, variations in volcanic aerosols may have played a more important role. With the exception of extreme mass bleaching events, we suggest that neither climate change from greenhouse-gas emissions nor ocean acidification is necessarily the driver of multi-decadal variations in growth rates at some Caribbean locations. Rather, the cause may be regional climate change due to volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalabi, Zaid; Milojevic, Ai; Doherty, Ruth M.; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Milner, James; Vieno, Massimo; Williams, Martin; Wilkinson, Paul

2017-10-01

A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.

Contributions of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing to mass loss of Northern Hemisphere mountain glaciers and quantifying their uncertainties.

PubMed

Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Nakano, Kazunari; Zhang, Yong; Watanabe, Satoshi; Tanoue, Masahiro; Kanae, Shinjiro

2016-07-20

Observational evidence indicates that a number of glaciers have lost mass in the past. Given that glaciers are highly impacted by the surrounding climate, human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for mass loss. However, previous research studies have been limited to analyzing the past several decades, and it remains unclear whether past glacier mass losses are within the range of natural internal climate variability. Here, we apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to observed and reconstructed mass losses as well as multi-model general circulation model (GCM) simulations of mountain glacier mass to detect and attribute past glacier mass changes. An 8,800-year control simulation of glaciers enabled us to evaluate detectability. The results indicate that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the decreased area-weighted average masses of 85 analyzed glaciers. The effect was larger than the mass increase caused by natural forcing, although the contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to decreases in mass varied at the local scale. We also showed that the detection of anthropogenic or natural influences could not be fully attributed when natural internal climate variability was taken into account.

Contributions of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing to mass loss of Northern Hemisphere mountain glaciers and quantifying their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Nakano, Kazunari; Zhang, Yong; Watanabe, Satoshi; Tanoue, Masahiro; Kanae, Shinjiro

2016-07-01

Observational evidence indicates that a number of glaciers have lost mass in the past. Given that glaciers are highly impacted by the surrounding climate, human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for mass loss. However, previous research studies have been limited to analyzing the past several decades, and it remains unclear whether past glacier mass losses are within the range of natural internal climate variability. Here, we apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to observed and reconstructed mass losses as well as multi-model general circulation model (GCM) simulations of mountain glacier mass to detect and attribute past glacier mass changes. An 8,800-year control simulation of glaciers enabled us to evaluate detectability. The results indicate that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the decreased area-weighted average masses of 85 analyzed glaciers. The effect was larger than the mass increase caused by natural forcing, although the contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to decreases in mass varied at the local scale. We also showed that the detection of anthropogenic or natural influences could not be fully attributed when natural internal climate variability was taken into account.

Responses of molluscan communities to centuries of human impact in the northern Adriatic Sea

PubMed Central

Haselmair, Alexandra; Tomašových, Adam; Stachowitsch, Michael; Zuschin, Martin

2017-01-01

In sediment cores spanning ~500 years of history in the Gulf of Trieste, down-core changes in molluscan community structure are characterized by marked shifts in species and functional composition. Between the 16th and 19th century, a strong heavy metal contamination of the sediments, most notably by Hg, together with the effects of natural climatic oscillations (increased sedimentation and organic enrichment) drive community changes. Since the early 20th century up to 2013, the combined impacts of cultural eutrophication, frequent hypoxic events and intensifying bottom trawling replace heavy metal contamination and climatic factors as the main drivers. The pollution-tolerant and opportunistic bivalve Corbula gibba and the scavenging gastropod Nassarius pygmaeus significantly increase in abundance during the 20th century, while species more sensitive to disturbances and hypoxia such as Turritella communis and Kurtiella bidentata become rare or absent. An infaunal life habit and scavenging emerge as the dominant life strategies during the late 20th century. Down-core shifts in the proportional abundances of molluscan species and functional groups represent a sensitive proxy for past ecological changes and reveal a century-long anthropogenic impact as the main driver behind these processes in the northern Adriatic Sea, offering also a unique perspective for other shallow marine ecosystems worldwide. PMID:28723935

Quantifying Anthropogenic Dust Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Nicholas P.; Pierre, Caroline

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change, including local environmental disturbances, moderate rates of wind-driven soil erosion and dust emission. These human-dust cycle interactions impact ecosystems and agricultural production, air quality, human health, biogeochemical cycles, and climate. While the impacts of land use activities and land management on aeolian processes can be profound, the interactions are often complex and assessments of anthropogenic dust loads at all scales remain highly uncertain. Here, we critically review the drivers of anthropogenic dust emission and current evaluation approaches. We then identify and describe opportunities to: (1) develop new conceptual frameworks and interdisciplinary approaches that draw on ecological state-and-transition models to improve the accuracy and relevance of assessments of anthropogenic dust emissions; (2) improve model fidelity and capacity for change detection to quantify anthropogenic impacts on aeolian processes; and (3) enhance field research and monitoring networks to support dust model applications to evaluate the impacts of disturbance processes on local to global-scale wind erosion and dust emissions.

Extended megadroughts in the southwestern United States during Pleistocene interglacials.

PubMed

Fawcett, Peter J; Werne, Josef P; Anderson, R Scott; Heikoop, Jeffrey M; Brown, Erik T; Berke, Melissa A; Smith, Susan J; Goff, Fraser; Donohoo-Hurley, Linda; Cisneros-Dozal, Luz M; Schouten, Stefan; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Huang, Yongsong; Toney, Jaime; Fessenden, Julianna; WoldeGabriel, Giday; Atudorei, Viorel; Geissman, John W; Allen, Craig D

2011-02-24

The potential for increased drought frequency and severity linked to anthropogenic climate change in the semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States (US) is a serious concern. Multi-year droughts during the instrumental period and decadal-length droughts of the past two millennia were shorter and climatically different from the future permanent, 'dust-bowl-like' megadrought conditions, lasting decades to a century, that are predicted as a consequence of warming. So far, it has been unclear whether or not such megadroughts occurred in the southwestern US, and, if so, with what regularity and intensity. Here we show that periods of aridity lasting centuries to millennia occurred in the southwestern US during mid-Pleistocene interglacials. Using molecular palaeotemperature proxies to reconstruct the mean annual temperature (MAT) in mid-Pleistocene lacustrine sediment from the Valles Caldera, New Mexico, we found that the driest conditions occurred during the warmest phases of interglacials, when the MAT was comparable to or higher than the modern MAT. A collapse of drought-tolerant C(4) plant communities during these warm, dry intervals indicates a significant reduction in summer precipitation, possibly in response to a poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. Three MAT cycles ∼2 °C in amplitude occurred within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 and seem to correspond to the muted precessional cycles within this interglacial. In comparison with MIS 11, MIS 13 experienced higher precessional-cycle amplitudes, larger variations in MAT (4-6 °C) and a longer period of extended warmth, suggesting that local insolation variations were important to interglacial climatic variability in the southwestern US. Comparison of the early MIS 11 climate record with the Holocene record shows many similarities and implies that, in the absence of anthropogenic forcing, the region should be entering a cooler and wetter phase.

Applications of UAVs to Measurement and Monitoring of Anthropogenic Contamination of an Urban Wildlife Preserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higa, E.; Valencia, D.; Hunt, A.

2017-12-01

Over the past decade, the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV's) has seen unprecedented growth in diverse research areas due to advances in UAV hardware and reduced total operating costs. These developments have given environmental investigators a new aerial data acquisition technique that can be used to not only survey large areas of terrain in a time-efficient and cost-effective manner but can be used to gather previously almost unattainable air quality data. Vertically resolved profiles of air pollutant data can be readily constructed. This project's goal is to produce a time resolved (seasonal) aerial survey of a 150-acre section from a 1300-acre ecologically diverse park of bottomland forests, wetlands and prairies. This ecosystem provides abundant habitats for a diverse wildlife community. This section was chosen due to its close proximity to the city landfill located 0.5 miles due north from the chosen section. The process of collecting UAV aerial images at a constant altitude of ( 200ft) on a bi-monthly basis (for a period of 6 months) has commenced. The UAV has been fitted with a custom made mount to secure an Ultrafine Particle (UFP) counter; this is providing information on UFP levels over the study area as a proxy for airborne particle inputs to the site. Sediment samples will be taken from several runoff ponds within the survey area to evaluate possible anthropogenic contamination of the park . Post processing imaging software, DroneDeploy, is being used to create an orthomosaic, topographic surface and 3D model that can be integrated with GIS platforms to create a comprehensive and cohesive multi-layered data set. Data sets of this nature will provide information on temporally constrained sources of runoff material to the pond areas in the preserve.

Effects of phone versus mail survey methods on the measurement of health-related quality of life and emotional and behavioural problems in adolescents.

PubMed

Erhart, Michael; Wetzel, Ralf M; Krügel, André; Ravens-Sieberer, Ulrike

2009-12-30

Telephone interviews have become established as an alternative to traditional mail surveys for collecting epidemiological data in public health research. However, the use of telephone and mail surveys raises the question of to what extent the results of different data collection methods deviate from one another. We therefore set out to study possible differences in using telephone and mail survey methods to measure health-related quality of life and emotional and behavioural problems in children and adolescents. A total of 1700 German children aged 8-18 years and their parents were interviewed randomly either by telephone or by mail. Health-related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and mental health problems (MHP) were assessed using the KINDL-R Quality of Life instrument and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) children's self-report and parent proxy report versions. Mean Differences ("d" effect size) and differences in Cronbach alpha were examined across modes of administration. Pearson correlation between children's and parents' scores was calculated within a multi-trait-multi-method (MTMM) analysis and compared across survey modes using Fisher-Z transformation. Telephone and mail survey methods resulted in similar completion rates and similar socio-demographic and socio-economic makeups of the samples. Telephone methods resulted in more positive self- and parent proxy reports of children's HRQoL (SMD < or = 0.27) and MHP (SMD < or = 0.32) on many scales. For the phone administered KINDL, lower Cronbach alpha values (self/proxy Total: 0.79/0.84) were observed (mail survey self/proxy Total: 0.84/0.87). KINDL MTMM results were weaker for the phone surveys: mono-trait-multi-method mean r = 0.31 (mail: r = 0.45); multi-trait-mono-method mean (self/parents) r = 0.29/0.36 (mail: r = 0.34/0.40); multi-trait-multi-method mean r = 0.14 (mail: r = 0.21). Weaker MTMM results were also observed for the phone administered SDQ: mono-trait-multi-method mean r = 0.32 (mail: r = 0.40); multi-trait-mono-method mean (self/parents) r = 0.24/0.30 (mail: r = 0.20/0.32); multi-trait-multi-method mean r = 0.14 (mail = 0.14). The SDQ classification into borderline and abnormal for some scales was affected by the method (OR = 0.36-1.55). The observed differences between phone and mail surveys are small but should be regarded as relevant in certain settings. Therefore, while both methods are valid, some changes are necessary. The weaker reliability and MTMM validity associated with phone methods necessitates improved phone adaptations of paper and pencil questionnaires. The effects of phone versus mail survey modes are partly different across constructs/measures.

Galápagos coral reef persistence after ENSO warming across an acidification gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzello, D.; Enochs, I.; Bruckner, A.; Renaud, P.; Kolodziej, G.; Budd, D. A.; Carlton, R.; Glynn, P.

2016-02-01

Anthropogenic CO2 is causing warming and ocean acidification. Coral reefs are being severely impacted, yet confusion lingers regarding how reefs will respond to these stressors over this century. Since the 1982-1983 El Niño-Southern Oscillation warming event, the persistence of reefs around the Galápagos Islands has differed across an acidification gradient. Reefs disappeared where pH < 8.0 and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) ≤ 3 and have not recovered, whereas one reef has persisted where pH > 8.0 and Ωarag > 3. Where upwelling is greatest, calcification by massive Porites is higher than predicted by a published relationship with temperature despite high CO2, possibly due to elevated nutrients. However, skeletal P/Ca, a proxy for phosphate exposure, negatively correlates with density (R = - 0.822, p < 0.0001). We propose that elevated nutrients have the potential to exacerbate acidification by depressing coral skeletal densities and further increasing bioerosion already accelerated by low pH.

Coupling of oceanic carbon and nitrogen facilitates spatially resolved quantitative reconstruction of nitrate inventories.

PubMed

Glock, Nicolaas; Erdem, Zeynep; Wallmann, Klaus; Somes, Christopher J; Liebetrau, Volker; Schönfeld, Joachim; Gorb, Stanislav; Eisenhauer, Anton

2018-03-23

Anthropogenic impacts are perturbing the global nitrogen cycle via warming effects and pollutant sources such as chemical fertilizers and burning of fossil fuels. Understanding controls on past nitrogen inventories might improve predictions for future global biogeochemical cycling. Here we show the quantitative reconstruction of deglacial bottom water nitrate concentrations from intermediate depths of the Peruvian upwelling region, using foraminiferal pore density. Deglacial nitrate concentrations correlate strongly with downcore δ 13 C, consistent with modern water column observations in the intermediate Pacific, facilitating the use of δ 13 C records as a paleo-nitrate-proxy at intermediate depths and suggesting that the carbon and nitrogen cycles were closely coupled throughout the last deglaciation in the Peruvian upwelling region. Combining the pore density and intermediate Pacific δ 13 C records shows an elevated nitrate inventory of >10% during the Last Glacial Maximum relative to the Holocene, consistent with a δ 13 C-based and δ 15 N-based 3D ocean biogeochemical model and previous box modeling studies.

A new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesselman, C. R.; Dowsett, H. J.; Scher, H. D.; Robinson, M. M.

2011-12-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.264 - 3.025 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history with sustained global temperatures in the range of warming predicted for the 21st century, providing an appealing analog with which to examine the Earth system changes we might encounter in the coming century. Ongoing sea surface and deep ocean temperature reconstructions and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model simulations by the USGS PRISM (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Group identify a dramatic North Atlantic warm anomaly coupled with increased evaporation in the mid-Pliocene, possibly driving enhanced meridional overturning circulation and North Atlantic Deep Water production. However deep ocean temperature is not a conclusive proxy for water mass, and most coupled model simulations predict transient decreases in North Atlantic Deep Water production in 21st century, presenting a contrasting picture of future warmer worlds. Here, we present early results from a new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene, using δ13C of benthic foraminifera as a proxy for water mass age and the neodymium isotopic imprint on fossil fish teeth as a proxy for water mass source region along a three-site depth transect from the Walvis Ridge (subtropical South Atlantic). The deep ocean circulation reconstructions resulting from this project will add a new dimension to the PRISM effort and will be useful for both initialization and evaluation of future model simulations.

Ecologically relevant levels of multiple, common marine stressors suggest antagonistic effects.

PubMed

Lange, Rolanda; Marshall, Dustin

2017-07-24

Stressors associated with global change will be experienced simultaneously and may act synergistically, so attempts to estimate the capacity of marine systems to cope with global change requires a multi-stressor approach. Because recent evidence suggests that stressor effects can be context-dependent, estimates of how stressors are experienced in ecologically realistic settings will be particularly valuable. To enhance our understanding of the interplay between environmental effects and the impact of multiple stressors from both natural and anthropogenic sources, we conducted a field experiment. We explored the impact of multiple, functionally varied stressors from both natural and anthropogenic sources experienced during early life history in a common sessile marine invertebrate, Bugula neritina. Natural spatial environmental variation induced differences in conspecific densities, allowing us to test for density-driven context-dependence of stressor effects. We indeed found density-dependent effects. Under high conspecific density, individual survival increased, which offset part of the negative effects of experiencing stressors. Experiencing multiple stressors early in life history translated to a decreased survival in the field, albeit the effects were not as drastic as we expected: our results are congruent with antagonistic stressor effects. We speculate that when individual stressors are more subtle, stressor synergies become less common.

What We Can Say About the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahn, Ralph

2016-07-01

Although particles from natural sources dominate the globally averaged aerosol load, it is widely understood that human activity has added significantly to the atmospheric aerosol inventory in many regions. Anthropogenic contributions include pollution particles from industrial activity, transportation, cook-stoves, and other combustion sources, smoke from agricultural fires and those wildfires that result from land-management practices, soil and mineral dust mobilized in regions where overgrazing, severe tilling, or overuse of surface water resources have occurred, and biogenic particles from vegetation planted and maintained by the populance. The history of human influence is complex - in the 18th and 19th centuries agricultural burning tended to dominate the anthropogenic component in most places, whereas more recently, fossil fuel combustion leads the human contribution is many areas. However, identifying and quantifying the anthropogenic aerosol component on global scales is a challenging endeavor at present. Most estimates of the anthropogenic component come from aerosol transport models that are initialized with aerosol and precursor-gas source locations, emission strengths, and injection heights. The aerosol is then advected based on meteorological modeling, possibly modified chemically or physically, and removed by parameterized wet or dry deposition processes. Aerosol effects on clouds are also represented in some climate models, but with even greater uncertainty than the direct aerosol effects on Earth's radiation balance. Even for present conditions, aerosol source inventories are deduced from whatever constraints can be found, along with much creativity and many assumptions. Aerosol amount (i.e., aerosol optical depth) is routinely measured globally from space, but observational constraints on the anthropogenic component require some knowledge of the aerosol type as well, a much more difficult quantity to derive. As large-swath, multi-spectral, single-view instruments such as MODIS can provide some information about fine-mode vs. coarse-mode dominated aerosol over dark water, early efforts to constrain aerosol type assumed that some or all the fine-mode fraction is anthropogenic. However, this information is not sufficient to make the key anthropogenic vs. natural distinction in most places where the likely answer is not already known. Instruments providing more detailed measurements, such as multi-spectral, multi-angle and polarimetric imagers and multi-channel lidars, can offer tighter aerosol-type constraints in some circumstances, though generally not enough to specifically identify anthropogenic aerosols. The best we seem to be able to do with current data is to combine satellite and suborbital observations with models. And for the "pre-industrial" period, the analogy is usually made to the "natural" component of present-day aerosol, although there are ambiguities in our ability to distinguish natural from anthropogenic particles on regional-to-global scales, and the natural component itself might have changed over time. This talk will review where we stand, and what might be possible to say in the future.

Synthesizing late Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions: Lessons learned, common challenges, and implications for future research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodysill, J. R.

2017-12-01

Proxy-based reconstructions provide vital information for developing histories of environmental and climate changes. Networks of spatiotemporal paleoclimate information are powerful tools for understanding dynamical processes within the global climate system and improving model-based predictions of the patterns and magnitudes of climate changes at local- to global-scales. Compiling individual paleoclimate records and integrating reconstructed climate information in the context of an ensemble of multi-proxy records, which are fundamental for developing a spatiotemporal climate data network, are hindered by challenges related to data and information accessibility, chronological uncertainty, sampling resolution, climate proxy type, and differences between depositional environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group has been compiling and integrating multi-proxy paleoclimate data as part of an ongoing effort to synthesize Holocene climate records from North America. The USGS North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group recently completed a late Holocene hydroclimate synthesis for the North American continent using several proxy types from a range of depositional environments, including lakes, wetlands, coastal marine, and cave speleothems. Using new age-depth relationships derived from the Bacon software package, we identified century-scale patterns of wetness and dryness for the past 2000 years with an age uncertainty-based confidence rating for each proxy record. Additionally, for highly-resolved North American lake sediment records, we computed average late Holocene sediment deposition rates and identified temporal trends in age uncertainty that are common to multiple lakes. This presentation addresses strengths and challenges of compiling and integrating data from different paleoclimate archives, with a particular focus on lake sediments, which may inform and guide future paleolimnological studies.

Characterizing phantom arteries with multi-channel laser ultrasonics and photo-acoustics.

PubMed

Johnson, Jami L; van Wijk, Kasper; Sabick, Michelle

2014-03-01

Multi-channel photo-acoustic and laser ultrasonic waves are used to sense the characteristics of proxies for healthy and diseased vessels. The acquisition system is non-contacting and non-invasive with a pulsed laser source and a laser vibrometer detector. As the wave signatures of our targets are typically low in amplitude, we exploit multi-channel acquisition and processing techniques. These are commonly used in seismology to improve the signal-to-noise ratio of data. We identify vessel proxies with a diameter on the order of 1 mm, at a depth of 18 mm. Variations in scattered and photo-acoustic signatures are related to differences in vessel wall properties and content. The methods described have the potential to improve imaging and better inform interventions for atherosclerotic vessels, such as the carotid artery. Copyright © 2014 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MULTI-SCALE REMOTE SENSING MAPPING OF ANTHROPOGENIC IMPERVIOUS SURFACES: SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALING ISSUES RELATED TO ECOLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL LANDSCAPE ANALYSES

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic impervious surfaces are leading contributors to non-point-source water pollution in urban watersheds. These human-created surfaces include such features as roads, parking lots, rooftops, sideways, and driveways. Aerial photography provides a historical vehicle for...

Using satellites and global models to investigate aerosol-cloud interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryspeerdt, E.; Quaas, J.; Goren, T.; Sourdeval, O.; Mülmenstädt, J.

2017-12-01

Aerosols are known to impact liquid cloud properties, through both microphysical and radiative processes. Increasing the number concentration of aerosol particles can increase the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Through impacts on precipitation processes, this increase in CDNC may also be able to impact the cloud fraction (CF) and the cloud liquid water path (LWP). Several studies have looked into the effect of aerosols on the CDNC, but as the albedo of a cloudy scene depends much more strongly on LWP and CF, an aerosol influence on these properties could generate a significant radiative forcing. While the impact of aerosols on cloud properties can be seen in case studies involving shiptracks and volcanoes, producing a global estimate of these effects remains challenging due to the confounding effect of local meteorology. For example, relative humidity significantly impacts the aerosol optical depth (AOD), a common satellite proxy for CCN, as well as being a strong control on cloud properties. This can generate relationships between AOD and cloud properties, even when there is no impact of aerosol-cloud interactions. In this work, we look at how aerosol-cloud interactions can be distinguished from the effect of local meteorology in satellite studies. With a combination global climate models and multiple sources of satellite data, we show that the choice of appropriate mediating variables and case studies can be used to develop constraints on the aerosol impact on CF and LWP. This will lead to improved representations of clouds in global climate models and help to reduce the uncertainty in the global impact of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud properties.

Reconstructing Holocene palaeo-environmental conditions in the Baltic: A multi-proxy comparison from the Little Belt (IODP Expedition 347, Site M0059)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, Ulrich; Andrén, Elinor; Andrén, Thomas; Ash, Jeanine; Bauersachs, Thorsten; Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Granoszewski, Wojciech; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Krupinski, Nadine; Peyron, Odile; Slomp, Caroline; Stepanova, Anna; Warnock, Jonathan; van Helmond, Niels; Expedition 347 Science Party

2016-04-01

Some of the largest marine environmental impacts from ongoing global climate change are occurring in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins, including severe oxygen depletion, intensifying stratification, and increasing temperatures. In order to predict future changes in water mass conditions, it is essential to reconstruct how these conditions have changed in the past against the background of climate changes. The brackish Baltic Sea is one of the largest semi-enclosed basins worldwide, and its sediment records provide a unique opportunity to analyse palaeo-environmental and climate change in central and northern Europe. IODP Expedition 347 recovered an exceptional set of sediment cores from the Baltic Sea which allow high-resolution reconstructions in unprecedented quality. We present a comparison of commonly-used proxies to reconstruct palaeoecosystems, -temperatures, and -salinity from IODP Site M0059 in the Little Belt over the past ˜8000 years. Our aim is to reconstruct the development of the terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the research area and the related environmental conditions, and to identify potential limitations of individual proxies. The age model for Site M0059 is based on 14Cdating, biostratigraphic correlation with neighbouring terrestrial pollen records, and sediment stratigraphy. Sedimentary organic carbon content and the bulk elemental composition have been measured, and can be used to determine the depositional environment and degree of oxygen depletion (e.g., Mo, Corg/Ptot). Pollen is used as proxy for vegetation development in the hinterland of the southern Baltic Sea and as a land/air-temperature proxy. Comparison with dinoflagellate cysts, insect remains, and green algae remains from the same samples provides a direct land-sea comparison. The application of the modern analogues technique to pollen assemblages has previously yielded precise results for late Pleistocene and Holocene datasets, including specific information on seasonality, but pollen-based reconstructions for Northern Europe may be hampered by plant migration effects. Palynomorph analyses are therefore complemented with analyses of lipid palaeothermometers, such as TEX86 and the long chain diol index (LDI), to reconstruct variations in Baltic Sea surface temperatures (SST). In addition, the MBT/CBT proxy is used to infer past changes in mean annual air temperatures (MAAT). Benthic foraminiferal δ18O and δ13C measurements (monospecific) and foraminifera and ostracod faunal assemblage analyses allow us to estimate bottom water salinity and environmental changes qualitatively and quantitatively. Low bottom water salinity (˜23 in bottom waters) and varying diagenesis in the Little Belt's organic-rich sediments complicates the application of benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca as a palaeotemperature proxy. Reliable bottom water temperatures, however, are reconstructed using clumped isotope analyses of mollusc material. In addition, diatoms and the diol index (DI) are analysed to determine variation in salinity of the Baltic Sea's surface waters over the investigated time period. The results of this inter-proxy comparison study will be used to reconstruct gradients between different settings, e.g. how water column stratification developed, possibly if and how changes in seasonality occurred, and to identify the circumstances under which specific proxies may be affected by secondary impacts.

Anthropogenic impacts on Costa Rican bat parasitism are sex specific.

PubMed

Frank, Hannah K; Mendenhall, Chase D; Judson, Seth D; Daily, Gretchen C; Hadly, Elizabeth A

2016-07-01

While anthropogenic impacts on parasitism of wildlife are receiving growing attention, whether these impacts vary in a sex-specific manner remains little explored. Differences between the sexes in the effect of parasites, linked to anthropogenic activity, could lead to uneven sex ratios and higher population endangerment. We sampled 1108 individual bats in 18 different sites across an agricultural mosaic landscape in southern Costa Rica to investigate the relationships between anthropogenic impacts (deforestation and reductions in host species richness) and bat fly ectoparasitism of 35 species of Neotropical bats. Although female and male bat assemblages were similar across the deforestation gradient, bat fly assemblages tracked their hosts closely only on female bats. We found that in female hosts, parasite abundance per bat decreased with increasing bat species richness, while in male hosts, parasite abundance increased. We hypothesize the differences in the parasite-disturbance relationship are due to differences in roosting behavior between the sexes. We report a sex-specific parasite-disturbance relationship and argue that sex differences in anthropogenic impacts on wildlife parasitism could impact long-term population health and survival.

Sedimentary record and anthropogenic pollution of a complex, multiple source fed dam reservoirs: An example from the Nové Mlýny reservoir, Czech Republic.

PubMed

Sedláček, Jan; Bábek, Ondřej; Nováková, Tereza

2017-01-01

While numerous studies of dam reservoirs contamination are reported world-wide, we present a missing link in the study of reservoirs sourced from multiple river catchments. In such reservoirs, different point sources of contaminants and variable composition of their sedimentary matrices add to extremely complex geochemical patterns. We studied a unique, step-wise filled Nové Mlýny dam reservoir, Czech Republic, which consists of three interconnected sub-basins. Their source areas are located in units with contrasting geology and different levels and sources of contamination. The aim of this study is to provide an insight into the provenance of the sediment, including lithogenic elements and anthropogenic pollutants, to investigate the sediment dispersal across the reservoir, and to assess the heavy metal pollution in each basin. The study is based on multi-proxy stratigraphic analysis and geochemistry of sediment cores. There is a considerable gradient in the sediment grain size, brightness, MS and geochemistry, which reflects changing hydrodynamic energy conditions and primary pelagic production of CaCO 3 . The thickness of sediments generally decreases from proximal to distal parts, but underwater currents can accumulate higher amounts of sediments in distal parts near the thalweg line. Average sedimentation rates vary over a wide range from 0.58cm/yr to 2.33cm/yr. In addition, the petrophysical patterns, concentrations of lithogenic elements and their ratios made it possible to identify two main provenance areas, the Dyje River catchment (upper basin) and the Svratka and Jihlava River catchments (middle and lower basin). Enrichment factors (EF) were used for distinguishing the anthropogenic element contribution from the local background levels. We found moderate Zn and Cu pollution (EF ~2 to 5) in the upper basin and Zn, Cu and Pb (EF ~2 to 4.5) in the middle basin with the peak contamination in the late 1980s, indicating that the two basins have different contamination histories. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan; Perona, Paolo

2017-07-01

In this study we investigate statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability on inter-annual (3-year) to centennial (100-year) timescales using de-trended semi-partial-cross-correlation analysis technique. To investigate this link we employ observations (AD 1854-1999), climate proxies (AD 1600-1999), and coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). We find robust statistical evidence that Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) has intrinsic positive correlation with solar activity in all datasets employed. The strength of the relationship between AMO and solar activity is modulated by volcanic eruptions and complex interaction among modes of ocean variability. The observational dataset reveals that El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) has statistically significant negative intrinsic correlation with solar activity on decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-27-year) whereas there is no evidence of a link on a typical ENSO timescale (2-7-year). In the observational dataset, the volcanic eruptions do not have a link with AMO on a typical AMO timescale (55-80-year) however the long-term datasets (proxies and SOCOL-MPIOM output) show that volcanic eruptions have intrinsic negative correlation with AMO on inter-annual to multi-decadal timescales. The Pacific decadal oscillation has no link with solar activity, however, it has positive intrinsic correlation with volcanic eruptions on multi-decadal timescales (47-54-year) in reconstruction and decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-32-year) in climate model simulations. We also find evidence of a link between volcanic eruptions and ENSO, however, the sign of relationship is not consistent between observations/proxies and climate model simulations.

Sediment Contaminants and Infauna Associated with Recreational Boating Structures in a Multi-Use Marine Park.

PubMed

Sim, Vivian X Y; Dafforn, Katherine A; Simpson, Stuart L; Kelaher, Brendan P; Johnston, Emma L

2015-01-01

Multi-use marine parks achieve conservation through spatial management of activities. Zoning of marine parks in New South Wales, Australia, includes high conservation areas and special purpose zones (SPZ) where maritime activities are concentrated. Although such measures geographically constrain anthropogenic impacts, we have limited understanding of potential ecological effects. We assessed sediment communities and contaminants adjacent to boating infrastructure (boat ramps, jetties and a marina) in a SPZ from the Clyde Estuary in Batemans Marine Park. Metal concentrations and fines content were elevated at boating structures compared to reference sites. Species richness was higher at sites with boating structures, where capitellid polychaetes and nematodes dominated the communities. Changes associated with boating structures were localised and did not extend beyond breakwalls or to reference sites outside the SPZ. The study highlights the benefits of appropriate zoning in a multi-use marine park and the potential to minimise stress on pristine areas through the application of spatial management.

Sediment Contaminants and Infauna Associated with Recreational Boating Structures in a Multi-Use Marine Park

PubMed Central

Sim, Vivian X. Y.; Dafforn, Katherine A.; Simpson, Stuart L.; Kelaher, Brendan P.; Johnston, Emma L.

2015-01-01

Multi-use marine parks achieve conservation through spatial management of activities. Zoning of marine parks in New South Wales, Australia, includes high conservation areas and special purpose zones (SPZ) where maritime activities are concentrated. Although such measures geographically constrain anthropogenic impacts, we have limited understanding of potential ecological effects. We assessed sediment communities and contaminants adjacent to boating infrastructure (boat ramps, jetties and a marina) in a SPZ from the Clyde Estuary in Batemans Marine Park. Metal concentrations and fines content were elevated at boating structures compared to reference sites. Species richness was higher at sites with boating structures, where capitellid polychaetes and nematodes dominated the communities. Changes associated with boating structures were localised and did not extend beyond breakwalls or to reference sites outside the SPZ. The study highlights the benefits of appropriate zoning in a multi-use marine park and the potential to minimise stress on pristine areas through the application of spatial management. PMID:26086427

Trend analysis of tropospheric NO2 column density over East Asia during 2000-2010: multi-satellite observations and model simulations with the updated REAS emission inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itahashi, S.; Uno, I.; Irie, H.; Kurokawa, J.; Ohara, T.

2013-04-01

Satellite observations of the tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) are closely correlated to surface NOx emissions and can thus be used to estimate the latter. In this study, the NO2 VCDs simulated by a regional chemical transport model with data from the updated Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) version 2.1 were validated by comparison with multi-satellite observations (GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, and OMI) between 2000 and 2010. Rapid growth in NO2 VCD driven by expansion of anthropogenic NOx emissions was revealed above the central eastern China region, except during the economic downturn. In contrast, slightly decreasing trends were captured above Japan. The modeled NO2 VCDs using the updated REAS emissions reasonably reproduced the annual trends observed by multi-satellites, suggesting that the NOx emissions growth rate estimated by the updated inventory is robust. On the basis of the close linear relationship of modeled NO2 VCD, observed NO2 VCD, and anthropogenic NOx emissions, the NOx emissions in 2009 and 2010 were estimated. It was estimated that the NOx emissions from anthropogenic sources in China beyond doubled between 2000 and 2010, reflecting the strong growth of anthropogenic emissions in China with the rapid recovery from the economic downturn during late 2008 and mid-2009.

Hydrological and associated biogeochemical consequences of rapid global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, Matthew J.; Inglis, Gordon N.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Naafs, B. David A.; Behrooz, Leila; Remmelzwaal, Serginio; Monteiro, Fanny M.; Rohrssen, Megan; Farnsworth, Alexander; Buss, Heather L.; Dickson, Alexander J.; Valdes, Paul J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pancost, Richard D.

2017-10-01

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) hyperthermal, 56 million years ago (Ma), is the most dramatic example of abrupt Cenozoic global warming. During the PETM surface temperatures increased between 5 and 9 °C and the onset likely took < 20 kyr. The PETM provides a case study of the impacts of rapid global warming on the Earth system, including both hydrological and associated biogeochemical feedbacks, and proxy data from the PETM can provide constraints on changes in warm climate hydrology simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, we provide a critical review of biological and geochemical signatures interpreted as direct or indirect indicators of hydrological change at the PETM, explore the importance of adopting multi-proxy approaches, and present a preliminary model-data comparison. Hydrological records complement those of temperature and indicate that the climatic response at the PETM was complex, with significant regional and temporal variability. This is further illustrated by the biogeochemical consequences of inferred changes in hydrology and, in fact, changes in precipitation and the biogeochemical consequences are often conflated in geochemical signatures. There is also strong evidence in many regions for changes in the episodic and/or intra-annual distribution of precipitation that has not widely been considered when comparing proxy data to GCM output. Crucially, GCM simulations indicate that the response of the hydrological cycle to the PETM was heterogeneous - some regions are associated with increased precipitation - evaporation (P - E), whilst others are characterised by a decrease. Interestingly, the majority of proxy data come from the regions where GCMs predict an increase in PETM precipitation. We propose that comparison of hydrological proxies to GCM output can be an important test of model skill, but this will be enhanced by further data from regions of model-simulated aridity and simulation of extreme precipitation events.

Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Widlansky, Matthew J; Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Stott, Lowell

2017-07-26

Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate's response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10-23 and 10-45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth system model along with 3-dimensional ocean data assimilation and by prescribing the external radiative forcings, this system simulates the observed low-frequency variability of precipitation, soil water, and wildfire probabilities in close agreement with observational records and reanalysis data. The underlying source of multi-year predictability can be traced back to variations of the Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, external radiative forcings, and the low-pass filtering characteristics of soils.

Shifts in alpine lakes' ecosystems in Japan driven by increasing Asian dusts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsugeki, N. K.; Tani, Y.; Ueda, S.; Agusa, T.; Toyoda, K.; Kuwae, M.; Oda, H.; Tanabe, S.; Urabe, J.

2011-12-01

Recently in East Asia the amount of fossil fuel combustion have increased with economic growth. It has caused a problem of trans-boundary air pollution in the whole of eastern Asia. Furthermore, Asian dust storms contribute episodically to the global aerosol load. However, the effects of increased Asian dusts on aquatic ecosystems are not well understood. If biologically important nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are transported via air dust, the atmospheric deposition of the dust may have serious impacts on recipient aquatic ecosystems because the biological production is limited by these nutrient elements. A previous report using sedimentary records has evaluated that atmospheric P inputs to the alpine lakes in the United States increased fivefold following the increased western settlement to this country during the nineteenth century. Since P is the most deficient nutrient for production in many lakes increase in P loading through atmospheric deposition of anthropogenically-derived dust might greatly affect the lake ecosystems. We examined fossil pigments and zooplankton remains from Pb-dated sediments taken from a high mountain lake of Hourai-Numa, located in the Towada-Hachimantai National Park of Japan, to uncover historical changes in the phyto- and zooplankton community over the past 100 years. Simultaneously, we measured the biogeochemical variables of TOC, TN, TP, δ13C, δ15N, and 206Pb/207Pb, 208Pb/207Pb in the sediments to identify environmental factors causing such changes. As a result, despite little anthropogenic activities in the watersheds, alpine lakes in Japan Islands increased algal and herbivore plankton biomasses by 3-6 folds for recent years depending on terrestrial the surrounded vegetations and landscape conditions. Biological and biogeochemical proxies recorded in the lake sediments indicate that this eutrophication occurred after the 1990s when P deposition increased due to atmospheric loading transported from Asian continent. It is most likely that continued anthropogenic amplification of the global P and other element cycles will further alter aquatic ecosystems even in the world's of mountain lakes located lakes even at far from direct human disturbance due to transportation and deposition of the nutrient-rich dusts emitted anthropogenically.

A 270-year Ice Core Record of Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, P. F.; Krabbenhoft, D. P.; Naftz, D. L.; Cecil, L. D.; Olson, M. L.; DeWild, J. F.; Susong, D. D.; Green, J. R.

2001-05-01

The Upper Fremont Glacier (UFG), a mid-latitude glacier in the Wind River Range, Wyoming, U.S.A., contains a record of atmospheric mercury deposition. Although some polar ice-core studies have provided a limited record of past mercury deposition, polar cores are, at best, proxy indicators of historic mercury deposition in the mid-latitudes. Two ice cores removed from the UFG in 1991 and 1998 (totaling 160 meters in length) provided a chronology and paleoenvironmental framework. This aids in the interpretation of the mercury deposition record. For the first time reported from a mid-latitude ice core, using low-level procedures, 97 ice core samples were analyzed to reconstruct a 270-year atmospheric mercury deposition record based in the western United States. Trends in mercury concentration from the UFG record major releases to the atmosphere of both natural and anthropogenic mercury from regional and global sources. We find that mercury concentrations are significantly, but for relatively short time intervals, elevated during periods corresponding to volcanic eruptions with global impact. This indicates that these natural events "punctuate" the record. Anthropogenic activities such as industrialization (global scale), gold mining and war-time manufacturing (regional scale), indicate that chronic levels of elevated mercury emissions have a greater influence on the historical atmospheric deposition record from the UFG. In terms of total mercury deposition recorded by the UFG during approximately the past 270 years: anthropogenic inputs contributed 52 percent; volcanic events contributed 6 percent; and pre-industrialization or background accounted for 42 percent of the total input. More significantly, during the last 100 years, anthropogenic sources contributed 70 percent of the total mercury input. A declining trend in mercury concentrations is obvious during the past 20 years. Declining mercury concentrations in the upper section of the ice core are corroborated by recent declining trends observed in sediment cores. This is also verified by similar concentrations in UFG snow samples collected in 1999. This decline may be in response to the United States Clean Air Act of 1970.

Tracing Anthropogenic Osmium around Japan using the Osmium Isotopic Composition of Macroalgae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sproson, A. D.; Selby, D. S.; Suzuki, K.

2016-12-01

The present-day open ocean seawater 187Os/188Os value of 1.06 is seen to reflect the balance between unradiogenic mantle derived osmium (Os) and radiogenic continental Os. However, Os released by anthropogenic activities has been detected in coastal sediments, lakes, estuaries, rain and snow from sources such as sewage sludge, catalytic convertors, smelting, fossil fuel burning and use as a staining reagent, thereby impacting the global Os budget. Despite over two decades of research, contemporary Os inputs into the ocean are believed to be underestimated by a factor of 3, leading to discrepancies in oceanic Os residence times estimated from mass balance calculations. This, in part, is due to the problems associated with directly measuring ultra-low concentrations of Os in seawater. Recently, it has been proposed that the 187Os/188Os of macroalgae (seaweed) reflects that of the seawater in which it lives. This suggests macroalgae can act as a proxy for the Os isotopic composition of seawater. We present Os isotope data for macroalgae collected from Tokyo Bay, Osaka Bay, the Noto Peninsula, Izu Peninsula and Hokkaido. Macroalgae close to the major cities of Tokyo and Osaka exhibit unradiogenic 187Os/188Os values as low as 0.45, in agreement with published sediment data. As you move away from central Tokyo and Osaka, 187Os/188Os values become more radiogenic, reaching values as high as 0.95 due to the entrainment of more radiogenic seawater. Macroalgae from the less urbanised Noto and Izu Peninsulas show a radiogenic 187Os/188Os range of 0.70-0.91, close to global river estimates suggesting little contamination from anthropogenic processes. Deep-water species off the coast of Hokkaido exhibit 187Os/188Os values in agreement with published Pacific Ocean seawater data. We propose macroalgae is recording the influence of anthropogenic processes - in particular sewage sludge production and catalytic convertor exhaust - on the Os budget of Japanese waters. Therefore, macroalgae could become a useful pollution indicator and powerful tracer of continental Os inputs to the ocean.

Environmental factors influencing the spatio-temporal distribution of Carybdea marsupialis (Lineo, 1978, Cubozoa) in South-Western Mediterranean coasts.

PubMed

Canepa, Antonio; Fuentes, Verónica; Bosch-Belmar, Mar; Acevedo, Melissa; Toledo-Guedes, Kilian; Ortiz, Antonio; Durá, Elia; Bordehore, César; Gili, Josep-Maria

2017-01-01

Jellyfish blooms cause important ecological and socio-economic problems. Among jellyfish, cubozoans are infamous for their painful, sometimes deadly, stings and are a major public concern in tropical to subtropical areas; however, there is little information about the possible causes of their outbreaks. After a bloom of the cubomedusa Carybdea marsupialis (Carybdeidae) along the coast of Denia (SW Mediterranean, Spain) in 2008 with negative consequences for local tourism, the necessity to understand the ecological restrictions on medusae abundance was evident. Here we use different models (GAM and zero-inflated models) to understand the environmental and human related factors influencing the abundance and distribution of C. marsupialis along the coast of Denia. Selected variables differed among medusae size classes, showing different environmental restriction associated to the developmental stages of the species. Variables implicated with dispersion (e.g. wind and current) affected mostly small and medium size classes. Sea surface temperature, salinity and proxies of primary production (chl a, phosphates, nitrates) were related to the abundances of small and large size classes, highlighting the roles of springtime salinity changes and increased primary production that may promote and maintain high densities of this species. The increased primary (and secondary) production due to anthropogenic impact is implicated as the factor enabling high numbers of C. marsupialis to thrive. Recommendations for monitoring blooms of this species along the study area and applicable to Mediterranean Sea include focus effort in coastal waters where productivity have been enriched by anthropogenic activities.

Temporal variations of natural and anthropogenic radionuclides in sea otter skull tissue in the North Pacific Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baskaran, M.; Hong, G.-H.; Dayton, S.; Bodkin, James L.; Kelley, J.J.

2002-01-01

Marine mammals being among the top predators in the food web tend to accumulate organic and inorganic contaminants from the environment. The body burden of contaminants in these species could reflect their foods and thus contaminant levels could serve as proxies on the changes of ecosystem. A pilot study was carried out to investigate the possibility of radionuclide leakage at Amchitka using a suite of sea otter (Enhydra lutris) skulls collected near Amchitka nuclear test-sites before (1950s) and after the testing (1990s), and at Adak, another Aleutian Island, about 300 km from Amchitka, where the potential impact of radionuclide leakage from Amchitka is expected to be negligible. In addition, the naturally occurring and anthropogenic radionuclide content on the sea otter skull was also utilized to investigate if there was any significant ecosystem changes in the environment.Concentration of 210Pb in sea otter bones collected during the 1950s was significantly higher than those collected in the 1990s. We propose that among the various factors that could cause this higher enrichment in 210Pb, changes in the sea otter prey is the most likely one. Comparison of the 137Cs, 90Sr, 239,240Pu concentrations appear not to be significantly higher in sea otter skulls collected in 1990s from Amchitka where the underground tests in 1965–71 than those from Adak, although significant differences were detected among different groups collected at various times.

Contributions to Pliocene Arctic warmth from removal of anthropogenic aerosol and enhanced forest fire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Fletcher, T.; Ballantyne, A.; Brady, E. C.

2016-12-01

Changing atmosphere chemistry in the past has been hypothesized to have altered the earth's radiation budget, and hence the climate. Here, we use an advanced climate model to test whether this hypothesis can help explain the amplified warming in the northern high latitudes during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.0 - 3.3 Ma). The amplified warming, suggested by terrestrial proxy records of northern high latitudes, is underestimated in previous climate simulations. This mismatch between observations and models may be partially due to proxy uncertainties, but also to insufficient model sensitivity, or incomplete knowledge of mPWP climate forcings. To explore the latter aspect, we conducted three coupled simulations using the same mPWP geography and topography, vegetation and CO2 level according to the PRISM3 reconstructions, but alternating emission scenarios among clean, polluted, and clean plus forest fire case. In the clean and polluted case, year-1850 emission and year-1850 natural plus year-2000 industrial emission are prescribed respectively. For the clean-plus-forest fire simulation, emissions from mPWP forest fire are constrained with a process-based prognostic fire model using fixed proxy SSTs. Preliminary results suggest that mPWP Arctic warmth is largely attributable to the removal of anthropogenic aerosols and enhanced deposition of the black carbon on snow and ice emitted from northern high latitude forest fires. Cloud radiative responses are shown to accelerate the summer sea ice melting from the continental margins, triggering the positive surface albedo and water vapor feedback that maintain a low perennial sea ice state in the Arctic Ocean. These results identify the important role that changes in aerosol chemistry may play in amplifying arctic surface temperatures of mPWP and insights on the role that aerosols may play in amplifying future Arctic temperatures.

E-research platform of EPOS Thematic Core Service "ANTHROPOGENIC HAZARDS"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlecka-Sikora, Beata; Lasocki, Stanisław; Grasso, Jean Robert; Schmittbuhl, Jean; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Garcia, Alexander; Cassidy, Nigel; Sterzel, Mariusz; Szepieniec, Tomasz; Dineva, Savka; Biggare, Pascal; Saccorotti, Gilberto; Sileny, Jan; Fischer, Tomas

2016-04-01

EPOS Thematic Core Service ANTHROPOGENIC HAZARDS (TCS AH) aims to create new research opportunities in the field of anthropogenic hazards evoked by exploitation of georesources. TCS AH, based on the prototype built in the framework of the IS-EPOS project (https://tcs.ah-epos.eu/), financed from Polish structural funds (POIG.02.03.00-14-090/13-00), is being further developed within EPOS IP project (H2020-INFRADEV-1-2015-1, INFRADEV-3-2015). TCS AH is designed as a functional e-research environment to ensure a researcher the maximum possible freedom for in silico experimentation by providing a virtual laboratory in which researcher will be able to create own workspace with own processing streams. The unique integrated RI is: (i) data gathered in the so- called "episodes", comprehensively describing a geophysical process, induced or triggered by human technological activity, which under certain circumstances can become hazardous for people, infrastructure and the environment and (ii) problem-oriented, specific high-level services, with the particular attention devoted to methods analyzing correlations between technology, geophysical response and resulting hazard. Services to be implemented are grouped within six blocks: (1) Basic services for data integration and handling; (2) Services for physical models of stress/strain changes over time and space as driven by geo-resource production; (3) Services for analysing geophysical signals; (4) Services to extract the relation between technological operations and observed induced seismic/deformation; (5) Services to quantitative probabilistic assessments of anthropogenic seismic hazard - statistical properties of anthropogenic seismic series and their dependence on time-varying anthropogenesis; ground motion prediction equations; stationary and time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard estimates, related to time-changeable technological factors inducing the seismic process; (6) Simulator for Multi-hazard/multi-risk assessment in ExploRation/exploitation of GEoResources (MERGER) - numerical estimate of the occurrence probability of chains of events or processes impacting the environment. TCS AH will also serve the public sector expert knowledge and background information. In order to fulfill this aim the services for outreach, dissemination & communication will be implemented. From the technical point of view the implementation of services will proceed according to the methods worked within the mentioned before IS-EPOS project. The detailed workflows of implementation process of aforementioned services & interaction between user & TCS AH have been already prepared.

Application of aerosol speciation data as an in situ dust proxy for validation of the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Patrick

The Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) predicts concentrations of mineral dust aerosols in time and space, but validation is challenging with current in situ particulate matter (PM) concentration measurements. Measured levels of ambient PM often contain anthropogenic components as well as windblown mineral dust. In this study, two approaches to model validation were performed with data from preexisting air quality monitoring networks: using hourly concentrations of total PM with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM 2.5); and using a daily averaged speciation-derived soil component. Validation analyses were performed for point locations within the cities of El Paso (TX), Austin (TX), Phoenix (AZ), Salt Lake City (UT) and Bakersfield (CA) for most of 2006. Hourly modeled PM 2.5 did not validate at all with hourly observations among the sites (combined R < 0.00, N = 24,302 hourly values). Aerosol chemical speciation data distinguished between mineral (soil) dust from anthropogenic ambient PM. As expected, statistically significant improvements in correlation among all stations (combined R = 0.16, N = 343 daily values) were found when the soil component alone was used to validate DREAM. The validation biases that result from anthropogenic aerosols were also reduced using the soil component. This is seen in the reduction of the root mean square error between hourly in situ versus hourly modeled (RMSE hourly = 18.6 μg m -3) and 24-h in situ speciation values versus daily averaged observed (RMSE soil = 12.0 μg m -3). However, the lack of a total reduction in RMSE indicates there is still room for improvement in the model. While the soil component is the theoretical proxy of choice for a dust transport model, the current sparse and infrequent sampling is not ideal for routine hourly air quality forecast validation.

Middle to Late Pleistocene multi-proxy record of environmental response to climate change from the Vienna Basin, Central Europe (Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salcher, Bernhard C.; Frank-Fellner, Christa; Lomax, Johanna; Preusser, Frank; Ottner, Franz; Scholger, Robert; Wagreich, Michael

2017-10-01

Tectonic basins can represent valuable archives of the environmental history. Presented here are the stratigraphy and multi-proxy analyses of two adjacent alluvial fans in the Quaternary active parts of the Vienna Basin, situated at the interface of the Atlantic, European continental and Mediterranean climate. Deposits comprise a sequence of coarse-grained fluvial deposits intercalated by laterally extensive horizons of pedogenically altered fine sediments. To establish palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, fine-grained sequences from a drill core and outcrop data were analysed according to its malacofauna, palaeopedology, susceptibility and sedimentology. The chronological framework is provided by 38 luminescence ages and supported by geomagnetic polarity investigations. Distinct warm periods each associated with a geomagnetic excursion, are recorded in three pedocomplexes formed during the Last Interglacial and two earlier interglacial periods, indicted to correlate with Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9 and MIS 11, respectively. Environmental conditions during the early last glacial period (MIS 5, c. 100-70 ka) are reconstructed from mollusc-shell rich overbank fines deposited along a former channel belt, covered by massive sheetflood deposits during MIS 2. Analysed warm phases suggest strong variations in humidity, ranging from steppe to forest dominated environments. The study presents one of the few numerically dated Middle Pleistocene multi-proxy records and one of the most comprehensive malacological datasets covering the early phases of last glacial period of continental Europe.

Sources, Properties, Aging, and Anthropogenic Influences on OA and SOA over the Southeast US and the Amazon duing SOAS, DC3, SEAC4RS, and GoAmazon

EPA Science Inventory

The SE US and the Amazon have large sources of biogenic VOCs, varying anthropogenic pollution impacts, and often poor organic aerosol (OA) model performance. Recent results on the sources, properties, aging, and impact of anthropogenic pollution on OA and secondary OA (SOA) over ...

Impacts of biogenic and anthropogenic emissions on summertime ozone formation in the Guanzhong Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Nan; He, Qingyang; Greenberg, Jim; Guenther, Alex; Li, Jingyi; Cao, Junji; Wang, Jun; Liao, Hong; Wang, Qiyuan; Zhang, Qiang

2018-05-01

This study is the first attempt to understand the synergistic impact of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions on summertime ozone (O3) formation in the Guanzhong (GZ) Basin where Xi'an, the oldest and the most populous city (with a population of 9 million) in northwestern China, is located. Month-long (August 2011) WRF-Chem simulations with different sensitivity experiments were conducted and compared with near-surface measurements. Biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) concentrations was characterized from six surface sites among the Qinling Mountains, and urban air composition was measured in Xi'an city at a tower 100 m a. s. The WRF-Chem control experiment reasonably reproduced the magnitudes and variations of observed O3, VOCs, NOx, PM2.5, and meteorological parameters, with normalized mean biases for each parameter within ±21 %. Subsequent analysis employed the factor separation approach (FSA) to quantitatively disentangle the pure and synergistic impacts of anthropogenic and/or biogenic sources on summertime O3 formation. The impact of anthropogenic sources alone was found to be dominant for O3 formation. Although anthropogenic particles reduced NO2 photolysis by up to 60 %, the anthropogenic sources contributed 19.1 ppb O3 formation on average for urban Xi'an. The abundant biogenic VOCs from the nearby forests promoted O3 formation in urban areas by interacting with the anthropogenic NOx. The calculated synergistic contribution (from both biogenic and anthropogenic sources) was up to 14.4 ppb in urban Xi'an, peaking in the afternoon. Our study reveals that the synergistic impact of individual source contributions to O3 formation should be considered in the formation of air pollution control strategies, especially for big cities in the vicinity of forests.

Origin and applicability of tetraether membrane lipids as temperature proxies in French peri-urban lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainié, François; Huguet, Arnaud; Breban, Alice; Lacroix, Gérard; Anquetil, Christelle; Derenne, Sylvie

2015-04-01

The Ile-de-France region is the most populated area in France, with ca. 12 million inhabitants, i.e. about 20 % of French population. The peri-urban aquatic ecosystems of this region are impacted by a large variety of environmental stressors, and especially high anthropogenic pressures (agricultural, industrial and urban pollutants), leading to the increased eutrophication of these water systems. The Ile-de-France lakes are therefore highly vulnerable ecosystems. Over the last years, several environmental markers have been developed to better understand the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, including the so-called GDGTs (glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers). GDGTs are membrane lipids produced by archaea and some unknown bacteria, which are increasingly used to reconstruct mean annual air and surface water temperature as well as pH. These compounds are ubiquitous in terrestrial and aquatic environments, but their origin and applicability as temperature and pH proxies in lakes, especially highly polluted ones, need further investigation. In this study, GDGTs were analysed in 33 lakes from the Ile-de-France region, representing the diversity of the regional landscape and characterised by different levels of eutrophication. The abundance and distribution of GDGTs in lacustrine sediments and surrounding soils were compared. Bacterial GDGTs were systematically much more abundant in sediments than in soils and displayed different distributions in the two types of environments, showing that they are mainly produced in situ in lakes, in the water column and/or sediment. Similarly, the concentration in archaeal GDGTs was much higher in sediments than in soils and the distribution of these compounds differed between soils and sediments, implying that the predominant archaeal communities are not the same in the two environments. When the lakes are distinguished by their eutrophication level, the latter was shown for the first time to have an impact on the microorganisms producing GDGTs. Indeed, bacterial and archaeal GDGTs were observed to be significantly less abundant in sediments from oligotrophic lakes than in those from hypertrophic lakes. Nevertheless, the applicability of bacterial GDGTs as temperature proxies was not affected by the eutrophic status of the lakes, since temperature estimates derived from these compounds were consistent with both mean annual air temperature (11 °C) and mean summer air temperature (19 °C) recorded in the Ile-de-France region.

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition induces rapid ecological changes in alpine lakes of Colorado Front Range (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolfe, A.P.; Baron, Jill S.; Cornett, R.J.

2001-01-01

Recent sediments from two alpine lakes (> 3300 m asl) in the Colorado Front Range (USA) register marked and near-synchronous changes that are believed to represent ecological responses to enhanced atmospheric deposition of fixed nitrogen from anthropogenic sources. Directional shifts in sediment proxies include greater representations of mesotrophic diatoms and increasingly depleted δ15N values. These trends are particularly pronounced since ~ 1950, and appear to chronicle lake responses to excess N derived from agricultural and industrial sources to the east. The rate and magnitude of recent ecological changes far exceed the context of natural variability, as inferred from comparative analyses of a long core capturingthe entire 14,000-year postglacial history of one of the lakes. Nitrogen deposition to these seemingly pristine natural areas has resulted in subtle but detectable limnological changes that likely represent the beginning of a stronger response to nitrogen enrichment.

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition induces rapid ecological changes in alpine lakes of the Colorado Front Range (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolfe, A.P.; Baron, Jill S.; Cornett, R.J.

2001-01-01

Recent sediments from two alpine lakes (> 3300 m asl) in the Colorado Front Range (USA) register marked and near-synchronous changes that are believed to represent ecological responses to enhanced atmospheric deposition of fixed nitrogen from anthropogenic sources. Directional shifts in sediment proxies include greater representations of mesotrophic diatoms and increasingly depleted ??15N values. These trends are particularly pronounced since ??? 1950, and appear to chronicle lake responses to excess N derived from agricultural and industrial sources to the east. The rate and magnitude of recent ecological changes far exceed the context of natural variability, as inferred from comparative analyses of a long core capturing the entire 14,000-year postglacial history of one of the lakes. Nitrogen deposition to these seemingly pristine natural areas has resulted in subtle but detectable limnological changes that likely represent the beginning of a stronger response to nitrogen enrichment.

A multidisciplinary approach to trace Asian dust storms from source to sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yan; Sun, Youbin; Ma, Long; Long, Xin

2015-03-01

Tracing the source of dust storm (DS) in mega-cities of northern China currently suffers ambiguities from different approaches including source-sink proxy comparison, air mass back trajectory modeling, and satellite image monitoring. By integrating advantages of all three methods, we present a multidisciplinary approach to trace the provenance of dust fall in Xi'an during the spring season (March to May) of 2012. We collected daily dust fall to calculate dust flux variation, and detected eight DS events with remarkable high flux values based on meteorological comparison and extreme detection algorithm. By combining MODIS images and accompanying real-time air mass back trajectories, we attribute four of them as natural DS events and the other four as anthropogenic DS events, suggesting the importance of natural and anthropogenic processes in supplying long-range transported dust. The primary sources of these DS events were constrained to three possible areas, including the northern Chinese deserts, Taklimakan desert, and Gurbantunggut desert. Proxy comparisons based upon the quartz crystallinity index and oxygen isotope further confirmed the source-to-sink linkage between the natural DS events in Xi'an and the dust emissions from the northern Chinese deserts. The integration of geochemical and meteorological tracing approaches favors the dominant contribution of short-distance transportation of modern dust fall on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Our study shows that the multidisciplinary approach could permit a better source identification of modern dust and should be applied properly for tracing the provenance fluctuations of geological dust deposits.

Fragility of estimated spatial temperature patterns in climate field reconstructions of the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Vaccaro, A.; Guillot, D.; Rajaratnam, B.

2013-12-01

Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) of the Common Era can provide insight into dynamical causes of low-frequency climate variability. For instance, the Mann et al. [2009] study found that the reconstructed sea-surface temperature difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age (hereinafter MCA - LIA) is marked by a La-Niña like pattern over the tropical Pacific, and proposed dynamical explanations for this observation. In this talk, we assess the robustness of such spatial patterns. First we examine the impact of the CFR methodology. Starting with the network of Mann et al. [2008] (hereinafter M08), we perform temperature reconstruction using four different CFR techniques: RegEM-TTLS [Schneider, 2001], the Mann et al. [2009] implementation of RegEM-TTLS (hereinafter M09), Canonical Correlation Analysis [Smerdon et al., 2010, CCA] and GraphEM [Guillot et al., in revision]. We find that results are greatly method-dependent even with identical inputs. While the M09 reconstruction displays a La Niña-like pattern over the tropical Pacific for MCA - LIA, CCA gives a neutral pattern, RegEM-TTLS and GraphEM both display El Niño-like pattern but show different amplitudes. Next we assess a given CFR technique's sensitivity to the selection of inputs. Proxies are selected based on the statistical significance of their correlations with HadCRUT3v annual temperature. A multiple hypothesis test [Ventura et al., 2004] is conducted to preclude spurious correlations. This choice has a large impact on resulting CFRs. In particular, whether the correlation is calculated between local or regional temperature-proxy pairs determines the number of significant records included in the proxy network. This in turn greatly affects the reconstructed spatial patterns and the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature time series with all CFR methods investigated. In order to further analyze CFRs' sensitivities to the abovementioned procedural choices, we assemble an updated multi-proxy network and produce a new 2000-year-long global temperature reconstruction. The network expands upon the existing M08 network by screening tree-ring proxies for the 'divergence problem' [D'Arrigo et al., 2008] and adds 58 non tree-ring proxies, of which 28 are located in the tropics and 11 are available within at least the past 1500 years. Overall, considerable differences are still evident among reconstructions using different CFR methods. Yet such differences are smaller using the updated proxy network compared with using the M08 network, consistent with pseudoproxy studies [Wang et al, 2013]. Our results collectively highlight the fragility of reconstructed patterns in the current state of proxy networks and CFR methods. We conclude that dynamical interpretations of such patterns are premature until these technical aspects are resolved. Reference: Wang, J., Emile-Geay, J., Guillot, D., Smerdon, J. E., and Rajaratnam, B.: Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 3015-3060, doi:10.5194/cpd-9-3015-2013, 2013.

Psychological Needs, Engagement, and Work Intentions: A Bayesian Multi-Measurement Mediation Approach and Implications for HRD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shuck, Brad; Zigarmi, Drea; Owen, Jesse

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to empirically examine the utility of self-determination theory (SDT) within the engagement-performance linkage. Design/methodology/approach: Bayesian multi-measurement mediation modeling was used to estimate the relation between SDT, engagement and a proxy measure of performance (e.g. work intentions) (N =…

Is Time the Best Metric to Measure Carbon-Related Climate Change Potential and Tune the Economy Toward Reduced Fossil Carbon Extraction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeGroff, F. A.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic changes to non-anthropogenic carbon fluxes are a primary driver of climate change. There currently exists no comprehensive metric to measure and value anthropogenic changes in carbon flux between all states of carbon. Focusing on atmospheric carbon emissions as a measure of anthropogenic activity on the environment ignores the fungible characteristics of carbon that are crucial in both the biosphere and the worldwide economy. Focusing on a single form of inorganic carbon as a proxy metric for the plethora of anthropogenic activity and carbon compounds will prove inadequate, convoluted, and unmanageable. A broader, more basic metric is needed to capture the entirety of carbon activity, particularly in an economic, profit-driven environment. We propose a new metric to measure changes in the temporal distance of any form or state of carbon from one state to another. Such a metric would be especially useful to measure the temporal distance of carbon from sinks such as the atmosphere or oceans. The effect of changes in carbon flux as a result of any human activity can be measured by the difference between the anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic temporal distance. The change in the temporal distance is a measure of the climate change potential much like voltage is a measure of electrical potential. The integral of the climate change potential is proportional to the anthropogenic climate change. We also propose a logarithmic vector scale for carbon quality, cq, as a measure of anthropogenic changes in carbon flux. The distance between the cq vector starting and ending temporal distances represents the change in cq. A base-10 logarithmic scale would allow the addition and subtraction of exponents to calculate changes in cq. As anthropogenic activity changes the temporal distance of carbon, the change in cq is measured as: cq = ß ( log10 [mean carbon temporal distance] ) where ß represents the carbon price coefficient for a particular country. For any country, cq measures the climate change potential for any domestic anthropogenic activity that results in a change in temporal distance of any carbon. The greater the carbon fees for a country, the larger the ß coefficient would be, and the greater the import fees would be to achieve carbon parity on imports from countries with lower carbon fees.

[History of heavy metal pollution from tidal flat in Haizhou Bay].

PubMed

Zhang, Rui; Zhang, Fan; Liu, Fu-Cheng; Yin, Fu-Jun; Ding, Ying-Jun; Gao, Jin-Rong; Chen, Jing; Shao, Wei

2013-03-01

Coastal zone could be considered as an important sink of regional source to sink and preserve historical records of environmental evolution. Four sediment cores, collected from tidal flat at Haizhou Bay near Lianyungang City, were examined for concentrations of heavy metals including Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Pb and Zn in core sediments to investigate the historical input of trace metals. In addition, sediment rates of cores LH3 and LH4 were determined based on radionuclide 210Pb. The results showed that grain size control effect was not the main factor that influenced the distribution of heavy metals. Heavy metals concentrations in the surface sediments were higher than these regional background values. Furthermore, Al element as a proxy of grain size was selected for normalization and calculation of metal enrichment factor (EF) and anthropogenic heavy metal fluxes. The results revealed that heavy metals in tidal flats were continuously enriched in the past decades, meanwhile, tidal flats have been significantly subjected to contaminations due to anthropogenic activities. Moreover, the depth profiles of heavy metals fluxes correspond to scenario of social-economy development of Lianyungang, which is an important urban area near Haizhou Bay. From 1950s to 2005, anthropogenic fluxes of metals increased with fluctuations, whereas, since 2005 anthropogenic fluxes declined, which may be correlated to the adjustment of industrial structure as well as the strengthened environmental regulation.

The 1.5-ka varved record of Lake Montcortès (southern Pyrenees, NE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corella, Juan Pablo; Brauer, Achim; Mangili, Clara; Rull, Valentí; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa; Morellón, Mario; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.

2012-09-01

The karstic Lake Montcortès sedimentary sequence spanning the last 1548 yr constitutes the first continuous, high-resolution, multi-proxy varved record in northern Spain. Sediments consist of biogenic varves composed of calcite, organic matter and detrital laminae and turbidite layers. Calcite layer thickness and internal sub-layering indicate changes in water temperature and seasonality whereas the frequency of detrital layers reflects rainfall variability. Higher temperatures occurred in Lake Montcortès in AD 555-738, 825-875, 1010-1322 and 1874-present. Lower temperatures and prolonged winter conditions were recorded in AD 1446-1598, 1663-1711 and 1759-1819. Extreme and multiple precipitation events dominated in AD 571-593, 848-922, 987-1086, 1168-1196, 1217-1249, 1444-1457, 1728-1741 and 1840-1875, indicating complex hydrological variability in NE Spain since AD 463. The sedimentary record of Lake Montcortès reveals a short-term relation between rainfall variability and the detrital influx, pronounced during extended periods of reduced anthropogenic influences. In pre-industrial times, during warm climate episodes, population and land use increased in the area. After the onset of the industrialization, the relationship between climate and human activities decoupled and population dynamics and landscape modifications were therefore mostly determined by socio-economic factors.

Historical and contemporary geographic data reveal complex spatial and temporal responses of vegetation to climate and land stewardship

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel L.; Norman, Laura M.; Webb, Robert H.; Turner, Raymond M.

2013-01-01

Vegetation and land-cover changes are not always directional but follow complex trajectories over space and time, driven by changing anthropogenic and abiotic conditions. We present a multi-observational approach to land-change analysis that addresses the complex geographic and temporal variability of vegetation changes related to climate and land use. Using land-ownership data as a proxy for land-use practices, multitemporal land-cover maps, and repeat photography dating to the late 19th century, we examine changing spatial and temporal distributions of two vegetation types with high conservation value in the southwestern United States: grasslands and riparian vegetation. In contrast to many reported vegetation changes, notably shrub encroachment in desert grasslands, we found an overall increase in grassland area and decline of xeroriparian and riparian vegetation. These observed change patterns were neither temporally directional nor spatially uniform over the landscape. Historical data suggest that long-term vegetation changes coincide with broad climate fluctuations while fine-scale patterns are determined by land-management practices. In some cases, restoration and active management appear to weaken the effects of climate on vegetation; therefore, if land managers in this region act in accord with on-going directional changes, the current drought and associated ecological reorganization may provide an opportunity to achieve desired restoration endpoints.

Assessment of Blue Carbon Storage by Baja California (Mexico) Tidal Wetlands and Evidence for Wetland Stability in the Face of Anthropogenic and Climatic Impacts.

PubMed

Watson, Elizabeth Burke; Hinojosa Corona, Alejandro

2017-12-24

Although saline tidal wetlands cover less than a fraction of one percent of the earth's surface (~0.01%), they efficiently sequester organic carbon due to high rates of primary production coupled with surfaces that aggrade in response to sea level rise. Here, we report on multi-decadal changes (1972-2008) in the extent of tidal marshes and mangroves, and characterize soil carbon density and source, for five regions of tidal wetlands located on Baja California's Pacific coast. Land-cover change analysis indicates the stability of tidal wetlands relative to anthropogenic and climate change impacts over the past four decades, with most changes resulting from natural coastal processes that are unique to arid environments. The disturbance of wetland soils in this region (to a depth of 50 cm) would liberate 2.55 Tg of organic carbon (C) or 9.36 Tg CO₂eq. Based on stoichiometry and carbon stable isotope ratios, the source of organic carbon in these wetland sediments is derived from a combination of wetland macrophyte, algal, and phytoplankton sources. The reconstruction of natural wetland dynamics in Baja California provides a counterpoint to the history of wetland destruction elsewhere in North America, and measurements provide new insights on the control of carbon sequestration in arid wetlands.

Arctic temperature and moisture trends during the past 2000 years - Progress from multiproxy-paleoclimate data compilations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Darrell; Routson, Cody; McKay, Nicholas; Beltrami, Hugo; Jaume-Santero, Fernando; Konecky, Bronwen; Saenger, Casey

2017-04-01

Instrumental climate data and climate-model projections show that Arctic-wide surface temperature and precipitation are positively correlated. Higher temperatures coincide with greater moisture by: (1) expanding the duration and source area for evaporation as sea ice retracts, (2) enhancing the poleward moisture transport, and (3) increasing the water-vapor content of the atmosphere. Higher temperature also influences evaporation rate, and therefore precipitation minus evaporation (P-E), the climate variable often sensed by paleo-hydroclimate proxies. Here, we test whether Arctic temperature and moisture also correlate on centennial timescales over the Common Era (CE). We use the new PAGES2k multiproxy-temperature dataset along with a first-pass compilation of moisture-sensitive proxy records to calculate century-scale composite timeseries, with a focus on longer records that extend back through the first millennium CE. We present a new Arctic borehole temperature reconstruction as a check on the magnitude of Little Ice Age cooling inferred from the proxy records, and we investigate the spatial pattern of centennial-scale variability. Similar to previous reconstructions, v2 of the PAGES2k proxy temperature dataset shows that, prior to the 20th century, mean annual Arctic-wide temperature decreased over the CE. The millennial-scale cooling trend is most prominent in proxy records from glacier ice, but is also registered in lake and marine sediment, and trees. In contrast, the composite of moisture-sensitive (primarily P-E) records does not exhibit a millennial-scale trend. Determining whether fluctuations in the mean state of Arctic temperature and moisture were in fact decoupled is hampered by the difficulty in detecting a significant trend within the relatively small number of spatially heterogeneous multi-proxy moisture-sensitive records. A decoupling of temperature and moisture would indicate that evaporation had a strong counterbalancing effect on precipitation and/or that shifting circulation patterns overwhelmed any multi-centennial-scale co-variability.

Hydroclimatic signal and LBK cultural activity in the Upper and Lower Rhine, inferred from abandoned channel fill deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, J. F.; Salvador, P. G.; Erkens, G.; Toonen, W. H. J.; Purdue, L.; Barra, A.; Houben, P.

2012-04-01

The Linear Band Ceramic (LBK) culture represents a major event in the spread of agriculture in Europe. Occupation particularly occurred in river valleys, with largest densities found along the rivers Danube, Elbe and Rhine. The interaction between the emergence of this culture and the dominant climatic and hydrological conditions is not yet fully established. As part of the ANR OBRESOC project, in which LBK activity is investigated in a transect from France (Marne river) to the catchment of the Danube river (Tisza), we studied palaeo-environmental changes in the Rhine valley between 7600-6600 cal. yrs. BP. Focus is on the Upper Rhine Graben and the Lower Rhine valley near the Rhine Delta apex, which is thought to be a peripheral region of LBK-activity. In these regions, a total of five cores from abandoned channels were analysed to reconstruct palaeo-environmental dynamics in vegetation and fluvial activity during the period of LBK development. Abandoned channel fills are excellent sites to perform detailed studies of palaeo-environmental dynamics, as they (i) form proximal locations to occupation sites of the LBK culture, (ii) act as efficient traps of sediments in which different environmental proxies are well preserved, (iii) contain well-datable material for the construction of detailed age-depth models, and (iv) provide a long proxy record, potentially over more than a millennium at a single site. On all cores, high resolution analysis of channel fill deposits (grain size and geophysical properties) and biotic proxies (micro-charcoal fluxes and pollen assemblages) were preformed to reconstruct palaeo-environmental signals, such as changes in fluvial activity, forest fires, and vegetation evolution, which may be related to agricultural activity, and climatic and hydrogeomorphic changes in the region. In this contribution we compare the results of the high-resolution core analyses (1,5 to 5m sequences for the studied timeframe) derived from the more densely populated Upper Rhine Graben with those from the more peripheral Lower Rhine valley to decipher anthropogenic impacts from natural environmental circumstances. Moreover, we try to discriminate the local to the regional signals recorded in the fluvial archives, by comparing the proxy data with the pedo-sedimentary context. The ultimate goal is to model socio-environmental interactions during the LBK culture progression to Western Europe with MMA.

Representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profiles, their trends and attribution to proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerefos, Christos; Kapsomenakis, John; Eleftheratos, Kostas; Tourpali, Kleareti; Petropavlovskikh, Irina; Hubert, Daan; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Frith, Stacey; Sofieva, Viktoria; Hassler, Birgit

2018-05-01

This paper is focusing on the representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profile variations over the middle and upper stratosphere. From the lower to the upper stratosphere, ozone profiles from single or grouped lidar stations correlate well with zonal means calculated from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite overpasses. The best representativeness with significant correlation coefficients is found within ±15° of latitude circles north or south of any lidar station. This paper also includes a multivariate linear regression (MLR) analysis on the relative importance of proxy time series for explaining variations in the vertical ozone profiles. Studied proxies represent variability due to influences outside of the earth system (solar cycle) and within the earth system, i.e. dynamic processes (the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, QBO; the Arctic Oscillation, AO; the Antarctic Oscillation, AAO; the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), those due to volcanic aerosol (aerosol optical depth, AOD), tropopause height changes (including global warming) and those influences due to anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric chemistry (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine, EESC). Ozone trends are estimated, with and without removal of proxies, from the total available 1980 to 2015 SBUV record. Except for the chemistry related proxy (EESC) and its orthogonal function, the removal of the other proxies does not alter the significance of the estimated long-term trends. At heights above 15 hPa an inflection point between 1997 and 1999 marks the end of significant negative ozone trends, followed by a recent period between 1998 and 2015 with positive ozone trends. At heights between 15 and 40 hPa the pre-1998 negative ozone trends tend to become less significant as we move towards 2015, below which the lower stratosphere ozone decline continues in agreement with findings of recent literature.

The importance of invertebrates when considering the impacts of anthropogenic noise

PubMed Central

Morley, Erica L.; Jones, Gareth; Radford, Andrew N.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic noise is now recognized as a major global pollutant. Rapidly burgeoning research has identified impacts on individual behaviour and physiology through to community disruption. To date, however, there has been an almost exclusive focus on vertebrates. Not only does their central role in food webs and in fulfilling ecosystem services make imperative our understanding of how invertebrates are impacted by all aspects of environmental change, but also many of their inherent characteristics provide opportunities to overcome common issues with the current anthropogenic noise literature. Here, we begin by explaining why invertebrates are likely to be affected by anthropogenic noise, briefly reviewing their capacity for hearing and providing evidence that they are capable of evolutionary adaptation and behavioural plasticity in response to natural noise sources. We then discuss the importance of quantifying accurately and fully both auditory ability and noise content, emphasizing considerations of direct relevance to how invertebrates detect sounds. We showcase how studying invertebrates can help with the behavioural bias in the literature, the difficulties in drawing strong, ecologically valid conclusions and the need for studies on fitness impacts. Finally, we suggest avenues of future research using invertebrates that would advance our understanding of the impact of anthropogenic noise. PMID:24335986

The importance of invertebrates when considering the impacts of anthropogenic noise.

PubMed

Morley, Erica L; Jones, Gareth; Radford, Andrew N

2014-02-07

Anthropogenic noise is now recognized as a major global pollutant. Rapidly burgeoning research has identified impacts on individual behaviour and physiology through to community disruption. To date, however, there has been an almost exclusive focus on vertebrates. Not only does their central role in food webs and in fulfilling ecosystem services make imperative our understanding of how invertebrates are impacted by all aspects of environmental change, but also many of their inherent characteristics provide opportunities to overcome common issues with the current anthropogenic noise literature. Here, we begin by explaining why invertebrates are likely to be affected by anthropogenic noise, briefly reviewing their capacity for hearing and providing evidence that they are capable of evolutionary adaptation and behavioural plasticity in response to natural noise sources. We then discuss the importance of quantifying accurately and fully both auditory ability and noise content, emphasizing considerations of direct relevance to how invertebrates detect sounds. We showcase how studying invertebrates can help with the behavioural bias in the literature, the difficulties in drawing strong, ecologically valid conclusions and the need for studies on fitness impacts. Finally, we suggest avenues of future research using invertebrates that would advance our understanding of the impact of anthropogenic noise.

Vegetation history and paleoclimate at Lake Dojran (FYROM/Greece) during the Late Glacial and Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masi, Alessia; Francke, Alexander; Pepe, Caterina; Thienemann, Matthias; Wagner, Bernd; Sadori, Laura

2018-03-01

A new high-resolution pollen and NPP (non-pollen palynomorph) analysis has been performed on the sediments of Lake Dojran, a transboundary lake located at the border between Greece and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). The sequence covers the last 12 500 years and provides information on the vegetational dynamics of the Late Glacial and Holocene for the southern Balkans. Robust age model, sedimentological diatom, and biomarker analyses published previously have been the base for a multi-perspective interpretation of the new palynological data. Pollen analysis revealed that the Late Glacial is characterized by steppic taxa with prevailing Amaranthaceae, Artemisia and Poaceae. The arboreal vegetation starts to rise after 11 500 yr BP, taking a couple of millennia to be definitively attested. Holocene vegetation is characterized by the dominance of mesophilous plants. The Quercus robur type and Pinus are the most abundant taxa, followed by the Quercus cerris type, the Quercus ilex type and Ostrya-Carpinus orientalis. The first attestation of human presence can be presumed at 5000 yr BP from the contemporary presence of cereals, Juglans and Rumex. A drop in both pollen concentration and influx together with a δ18Ocarb shift indicates increasing aridity and precedes clear and continuous human signs since 4000 yr BP. Also, a correlation between Pediastrum boryanum and fecal stanol suggests that the increase in nutrients in the water is related to human presence and pasture. An undoubted expansion of human-related plants occurs since 2600 yr BP when cereals, arboreal cultivated and other synanthropic non-cultivated taxa are found. A strong reduction in arboreal vegetation occurred at 2000 yr BP, when the Roman Empire impacted a landscape undergoing climate dryness in the whole Mediterranean area. In recent centuries the human impact still remains high but spots of natural vegetation are preserved. The Lake Dojran multi-proxy analysis including pollen data provides clear evidence of the importance of this approach in paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Cross-interpretation of several proxies allows us to comprehend past vegetation dynamics and human impact in the southern Balkans.

Correlating wine quality indicators to chemical and sensory measurements.

PubMed

Hopfer, Helene; Nelson, Jenny; Ebeler, Susan E; Heymann, Hildegarde

2015-05-12

Twenty-seven commercial Californian Cabernet Sauvignon wines of different quality categories were analyzed with sensory and chemical methods. Correlations between five quality proxies-points awarded during a wine competition, wine expert scores, retail price, vintage, and wine region-were correlated to sensory attributes, volatile compounds, and elemental composition. Wine quality is a multi-faceted construct, incorporating many different layers. Depending on the quality proxy studied, significant correlations between quality and attributes, volatiles and elements were found, some of them previously reported in the literature.

Reconstructing Holocene temperature and salinity variations in the western Baltic Sea region: a multi-proxy comparison from the Little Belt (IODP Expedition 347, Site M0059)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, Ulrich; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Ash, Jeanine L.; Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Quintana Krupinski, Nadine; Peyron, Odile; Stepanova, Anna; Warnock, Jonathan; Van Helmond, Niels A. G. M.; Passey, Benjamin H.; Rønø Clausen, Ole; Bennike, Ole; Andrén, Elinor; Granoszewski, Wojciech; Andrén, Thomas; Filipsson, Helena L.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Slomp, Caroline P.; Bauersachs, Thorsten

2017-12-01

Sediment records recovered from the Baltic Sea during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 347 provide a unique opportunity to study paleoenvironmental and climate change in central and northern Europe. Such studies contribute to a better understanding of how environmental parameters change in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins. Here we present a multi-proxy-based reconstruction of paleotemperature (both marine and terrestrial), paleosalinity, and paleoecosystem changes from the Little Belt (Site M0059) over the past ˜ 8000 years and evaluate the applicability of inorganic- and organic-based proxies in this particular setting. All salinity proxies (diatoms, aquatic palynomorphs, ostracods, diol index) show that lacustrine conditions occurred in the Little Belt until ˜ 7400 cal yr BP. A connection to the Kattegat at this time can thus be excluded, but a direct connection to the Baltic Proper may have existed. The transition to the brackish-marine conditions of the Littorina Sea stage (more saline and warmer) occurred within ˜ 200 years when the connection to the Kattegat became established after ˜ 7400 cal yr BP. The different salinity proxies used here generally show similar trends in relative changes in salinity, but often do not allow quantitative estimates of salinity. The reconstruction of water temperatures is associated with particularly large uncertainties and variations in absolute values by up to 8 °C for bottom waters and up to 16 °C for surface waters. Concerning the reconstruction of temperature using foraminiferal Mg  /  Ca ratios, contamination by authigenic coatings in the deeper intervals may have led to an overestimation of temperatures. Differences in results based on the lipid paleothermometers (long chain diol index and TEXL86) can partly be explained by the application of modern-day proxy calibrations to intervals that experienced significant changes in depositional settings: in the case of our study, the change from freshwater to marine conditions. Our study shows that particular caution has to be taken when applying and interpreting proxies in coastal environments and marginal seas, where water mass conditions can experience more rapid and larger changes than in open ocean settings. Approaches using a multitude of independent proxies may thus allow a more robust paleoenvironmental assessment.

Historical trace metal accumulation in the sediments of an urbanized region of the Lake Champlain watershed, Burlington, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mecray, E.L.; King, J.W.; Appleby, P.G.; Hunt, A.S.

2001-01-01

This study documents the history of pollution inputs in the Burlington region of Lake Champlain, Vermont using measurements of anthropogenic metals (Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, Cd, and Ag) in four age-dated sediment cores. Sediments record a history of contamination in a region and can be used to assess the changing threat to biota over time and to evaluate the effectiveness of discharge regulations on anthropogenic inputs. Grain size, magnetic susceptibility, radiometric dating and pollen stratigraphy were combined with trace metal data to provide an assessment of the history of contamination over the last 350 yr in the Burlington region of Lake Champlain. Magnetic susceptibility was initially used to identify land-use history for each site because it is a proxy indicator of soil erosion. Historical trends in metal inputs in the Burlington region from the seventeenth through the twentieth centuries are reflected in downcore variations in metal concentrations and accumulation rates. Metal concentrations increase above background values in the early to mid nineteenth century. The metal input rate to the sediments increases around 1920 and maximum concentrations and accumulation rates are observed in the late 1960s. Decreases in concentration and accumulation rate between 1970 and the present are observed, for most metals. The observed trends are primarily a function of variations in anthropogenic inputs and not variations in sediment grain size. Grain size data were used to remove texture variations from the metal profiles and results show trends in the anthropogenic metal signals remain. Radiometric dating and pollen stratigraphy provide well-constrained dates for the sediments thereby allowing the metal profiles to be interpreted in terms of land-use history.This study documents the history of pollution inputs in the Burlington region of Lake Champlain, Vermont using measurements of anthropogenic metals (Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, Cd, and Ag) in four age-dated sediment cores. Sediments record a history of contamination in a region and can be used to assess the changing threat to biota over time and to evaluate the effectiveness of discharge regulations on anthropogenic inputs. Grain size, magnetic susceptibility, radiometric dating and pollen stratigraphy were combined with trace metal data to provide an assessment of the history of contamination over the last 350 yr in the Burlington region of Lake Champlain. Magnetic susceptibility was initially used to identify land-use history for each site because it is a proxy indicator of soil erosion. Historical trends in metal inputs in the Burlington region from the seventeenth through the twentieth centuries are reflected in downcore variations in metal concentrations and accumulation rates. Metal concentrations increase above background values in the early to mid nineteenth century. The metal input rate to the sediments increases around 1920 and maximum concentrations and accumulation rates are observed in the late 1960s. Decreases in concentration and accumulation rate between 1970 and the present are observed for most metals. The observed trends are primarily a function of variations in anthropogenic inputs and not variations in sediment grain size. Grain size data were used to remove texture variations from the metal profiles and results show trends in the anthropogenic metal signals remain. Radiometric dating and pollen stratigraphy provide well-constrained dates for the sediments thereby allowing the metal profiles to be interpreted in terms of land-use history.

Interacting with wildlife tourism increases activity of white sharks.

PubMed

Huveneers, Charlie; Watanabe, Yuuki Y; Payne, Nicholas L; Semmens, Jayson M

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic activities are dramatically changing marine ecosystems. Wildlife tourism is one of the fastest growing sectors of the tourism industry and has the potential to modify the natural environment and behaviour of the species it targets. Here, we used a novel method to assess the effects of wildlife tourism on the activity of white sharks ( Carcharodon carcharias ). High frequency three-axis acceleration loggers were deployed on ten white sharks for a total of ~9 days. A combination of multivariate and univariate analysis revealed that the increased number of strong accelerations and vertical movements when sharks are interacting with cage-diving operators result in an overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA) ~61% higher compared with other times when sharks are present in the area where cage-diving occurs. Since ODBA is considered a proxy of metabolic rate, interacting with cage-divers is probably more costly than are normal behaviours of white sharks at the Neptune Islands. However, the overall impact of cage-diving might be small if interactions with individual sharks are infrequent. This study suggests wildlife tourism changes the instantaneous activity levels of white sharks, and calls for an understanding of the frequency of shark-tourism interactions to appreciate the net impact of ecotourism on this species' fitness.

Interacting with wildlife tourism increases activity of white sharks

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Yuuki Y; Payne, Nicholas L; Semmens, Jayson M

2018-01-01

Abstract Anthropogenic activities are dramatically changing marine ecosystems. Wildlife tourism is one of the fastest growing sectors of the tourism industry and has the potential to modify the natural environment and behaviour of the species it targets. Here, we used a novel method to assess the effects of wildlife tourism on the activity of white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias). High frequency three-axis acceleration loggers were deployed on ten white sharks for a total of ~9 days. A combination of multivariate and univariate analysis revealed that the increased number of strong accelerations and vertical movements when sharks are interacting with cage-diving operators result in an overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA) ~61% higher compared with other times when sharks are present in the area where cage-diving occurs. Since ODBA is considered a proxy of metabolic rate, interacting with cage-divers is probably more costly than are normal behaviours of white sharks at the Neptune Islands. However, the overall impact of cage-diving might be small if interactions with individual sharks are infrequent. This study suggests wildlife tourism changes the instantaneous activity levels of white sharks, and calls for an understanding of the frequency of shark-tourism interactions to appreciate the net impact of ecotourism on this species’ fitness. PMID:29780593

Salt lake Laguna de Fuente de Piedra (S-Spain) as Late Quaternary palaeoenvironmental archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höbig, Nicole; Melles, Martin; Reicherter, Klaus

2014-05-01

This study deals with Late Quaternary palaeoenvironmental variability in Iberia reconstructed from terrestrial archives. In southern Iberia, endorheic basins of the Betic Cordilleras are relatively common and contain salt or fresh-water lakes due to subsurface dissolution of Triassic evaporites. Such precipitation or ground-water fed lakes (called Lagunas in Spanish) are vulnerable to changes in hydrology, climate or anthropogenic modifications. The largest Spanish salt lake, Laguna de Fuente de Piedra (Antequera region, S-Spain), has been investigated and serves as a palaeoenvironmental archive for the Late Pleistocene to Holocene time interval. Several sediment cores taken during drilling campaigns in 2012 and 2013 have revealed sedimentary sequences (up to 14 m length) along the shoreline. A multi-proxy study, including sedimentology, geochemistry and physical properties (magnetic susceptibility) has been performed on the cores. The sedimentary history is highly variable: several decimetre thick silty variegated clay deposits, laminated evaporites, and even few-centimetre thick massive gypsum crystals (i.e., selenites). XRF analysis was focussed on valuable palaeoclimatic proxies (e.g., S, Zr, Ti, and element ratios) to identify the composition and provenance of the sediments and to delineate palaeoenvironmental conditions. First age control has been realized by AMS-radiocarbon dating. The records start with approximately 2-3 m Holocene deposits and reach back to the middle of MIS 3 (GS-3). The sequences contain changes in sedimentation rates as well as colour changes, which can be summarized as brownish-beige deposits at the top and more greenish-grey deposits below as well as highly variegated lamination and selenites below ca. 6 m depth. The Younger Dryas, Bølling/Allerød, and the so-called Mystery Interval/Last Glacial Maximum have presumably been identified in the sediment cores and aligned to other climate records. In general, the cores of the Laguna de Fuente de Piedra show cyclic deposition including evaporitic sequences throughout the Holocene and Late Pleistocene, indicating higher fluxes and reworking of organic/inorganic carbon as well as other indicative proxy elements like Ti, Zr and Ca/Sr ratio during Late Pleistocene times. In order to achieve a better understanding of the palaeoenvironmental history in the study area further studies are planned which encompass biological/palaeontological indicators (e.g., pollen, diatoms) as well as another geochemical isotopic techniques on evaporitic deposits such as fluid inclusion analysis.

Anthropogenic impacts on tropical forest biodiversity: a network structure and ecosystem functioning perspective

PubMed Central

Morris, Rebecca J.

2010-01-01

Huge areas of diverse tropical forest are lost or degraded every year with dramatic consequences for biodiversity. Deforestation and fragmentation, over-exploitation, invasive species and climate change are the main drivers of tropical forest biodiversity loss. Most studies investigating these threats have focused on changes in species richness or species diversity. However, if we are to understand the absolute and long-term effects of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests, we should also consider the interactions between species, how those species are organized in networks, and the function that those species perform. I discuss our current knowledge of network structure and ecosystem functioning, highlighting empirical examples of their response to anthropogenic impacts. I consider the future prospects for tropical forest biodiversity, focusing on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in secondary forest. Finally, I propose directions for future research to help us better understand the effects of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forest biodiversity. PMID:20980318

Forced and Internal Multi-Decadal Variability in the North Atlantic and their Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.

2017-12-01

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), a basin-wide North Atlantic sea surface temperature warming or cooling pattern varying on decadal and longer time scales, is one of the most important climate variations in the Atlantic basin. The AMV has shown to be associated with significant climate impacts regionally and globally, from Atlantic hurricane activities, frequency and severity of droughts across North America, as well as rainfall anomalies across the African Sahel and northeast Brazil. Despite the important impacts of the AMV, its mechanisms are not completely understood. In particular, it is not clear how much of the historical Atlantic SST fluctuations were forced by anthropogenic sources such as greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling, versus driven internally by changes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere processes in the Atlantic. Using climate models such as the NCAR large ensemble simulations, we were able to successfully separate the forced and internally generated North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies through a signal-to-noise maximizing Empirical Orthogonal Function (S/N EOF) analysis method. Two forced modes were identified with one representing a hemispherical symmetric mode and one asymmetric mode. The symmetric mode largely represents the greenhouse forced component while the asymmetric mode resembles the anthropogenic aerosol forcing. When statistically removing both of the forced modes, the residual multidecadal Atlantic SST variability shows a very similar structure as the AMV in the preindustrial simulation. The distinct climate impacts of each of these modes are also identified and the implications and challenges for decadal climate prediction will be discussed.

Using Resin-Based 3D Printing to Build Geometrically Accurate Proxies of Porous Sedimentary Rocks.

PubMed

Ishutov, Sergey; Hasiuk, Franciszek J; Jobe, Dawn; Agar, Susan

2018-05-01

Three-dimensional (3D) printing is capable of transforming intricate digital models into tangible objects, allowing geoscientists to replicate the geometry of 3D pore networks of sedimentary rocks. We provide a refined method for building scalable pore-network models ("proxies") using stereolithography 3D printing that can be used in repeated flow experiments (e.g., core flooding, permeametry, porosimetry). Typically, this workflow involves two steps, model design and 3D printing. In this study, we explore how the addition of post-processing and validation can reduce uncertainty in the 3D-printed proxy accuracy (difference of proxy geometry from the digital model). Post-processing is a multi-step cleaning of porous proxies involving pressurized ethanol flushing and oven drying. Proxies are validated by: (1) helium porosimetry and (2) digital measurements of porosity from thin-section images of 3D-printed proxies. 3D printer resolution was determined by measuring the smallest open channel in 3D-printed "gap test" wafers. This resolution (400 µm) was insufficient to build porosity of Fontainebleau sandstone (∼13%) from computed tomography data at the sample's natural scale, so proxies were printed at 15-, 23-, and 30-fold magnifications to validate the workflow. Helium porosities of the 3D-printed proxies differed from digital calculations by up to 7% points. Results improved after pressurized flushing with ethanol (e.g., porosity difference reduced to ∼1% point), though uncertainties remain regarding the nature of sub-micron "artifact" pores imparted by the 3D printing process. This study shows the benefits of including post-processing and validation in any workflow to produce porous rock proxies. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

A multi-proxy record of hydroclimate, vegetation, fire, and post-settlement impacts for a subalpine plateau, Central Rocky Mountains U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Lesleigh; Brunelle, Andrea; Thompson, Robert S.

2015-01-01

Apparent changes in vegetation distribution, fire, and other disturbance regimes throughout western North America have prompted investigations of the relative importance of human activities and climate change as potential causal mechanisms. Assessing the effects of Euro-American settlement is difficult because climate changes occur on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and require longer time perspectives than historic observations can provide. Here, we report vegetation and environmental changes over the past ~13,000 years as recorded in a sediment record from Bison Lake, a subalpine lake on a high plateau in northwestern Colorado. Results are based on multiple independent proxies, which include pollen, charcoal, and elemental geochemistry, and are compared with previously reported interpretations of hydroclimatic changes from oxygen isotope ratios. The pollen data indicate a slowly changing vegetation sequence from sagebrush steppe during the late glacial to coniferous forest through the late Holocene. The most dramatic vegetation changes of the Holocene occurred during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA) and ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) with rapid replacement of conifer forest by grassland followed by an equally rapid return to conifer forest. Late Holocene vegetation responses are mirrored by changes in fire, lake biological productivity, and watershed erosion. These combined records indicate that subsequent disturbance related to Euro-American settlement, although perhaps significant, had acted upon a landscape that was already responding to MCA-LIA hydroclimatic change. Results document both rapid and long-term subalpine grassland ecosystem dynamics driven by agents of change that can be anticipated in the future and simulated by ecosystem models.

Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froelicher, T. L.; Joos, F.

2010-12-01

The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO2 agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process,should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO2 given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frölicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat

2010-12-01

The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO2 agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO2 given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Wing Configuration Impact on Design Optimums for a Subsonic Passenger Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wells, Douglas P.

2014-01-01

This study sought to compare four aircraft wing configurations at a conceptual level using a multi-disciplinary optimization (MDO) process. The MDO framework used was created by Georgia Institute of Technology and Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. They created a multi-disciplinary design and optimization environment that could capture the unique features of the truss-braced wing (TBW) configuration. The four wing configurations selected for the study were a low wing cantilever installation, a high wing cantilever, a strut-braced wing, and a single jury TBW. The mission that was used for this study was a 160 passenger transport aircraft with a design range of 2,875 nautical miles at the design payload, flown at a cruise Mach number of 0.78. This paper includes discussion and optimization results for multiple design objectives. Five design objectives were chosen to illustrate the impact of selected objective on the optimization result: minimum takeoff gross weight (TOGW), minimum operating empty weight, minimum block fuel weight, maximum start of cruise lift-to-drag ratio, and minimum start of cruise drag coefficient. The results show that the design objective selected will impact the characteristics of the optimized aircraft. Although minimum life cycle cost was not one of the objectives, TOGW is often used as a proxy for life cycle cost. The low wing cantilever had the lowest TOGW followed by the strut-braced wing.

Importance of anthropogenic climate impact, sampling error and urban development in sewer system design.

PubMed

Egger, C; Maurer, M

2015-04-15

Urban drainage design relying on observed precipitation series neglects the uncertainties associated with current and indeed future climate variability. Urban drainage design is further affected by the large stochastic variability of precipitation extremes and sampling errors arising from the short observation periods of extreme precipitation. Stochastic downscaling addresses anthropogenic climate impact by allowing relevant precipitation characteristics to be derived from local observations and an ensemble of climate models. This multi-climate model approach seeks to reflect the uncertainties in the data due to structural errors of the climate models. An ensemble of outcomes from stochastic downscaling allows for addressing the sampling uncertainty. These uncertainties are clearly reflected in the precipitation-runoff predictions of three urban drainage systems. They were mostly due to the sampling uncertainty. The contribution of climate model uncertainty was found to be of minor importance. Under the applied greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B) and within the period 2036-2065, the potential for urban flooding in our Swiss case study is slightly reduced on average compared to the reference period 1981-2010. Scenario planning was applied to consider urban development associated with future socio-economic factors affecting urban drainage. The impact of scenario uncertainty was to a large extent found to be case-specific, thus emphasizing the need for scenario planning in every individual case. The results represent a valuable basis for discussions of new drainage design standards aiming specifically to include considerations of uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Multi-proxy Approach to Using Cave Sediment Carbon Isotopes for Late Holocene Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polk, J. S.; van Beynen, P.

2007-12-01

Carbon isotopes from cave sediments collected from Jennings Cave in Marion County, Florida were analyzed using a multi-proxy approach. Fulvic acids (FAs), humic acids (HAs), black carbon, phytoliths, and bulk organic matter were extracted from the sediments for carbon isotope analysis to determine periods of vegetation change caused by climatic influences during the Late Holocene (~\\ 2,800 years BP). The carbon isotope record ranges from -35‰ to -14‰, exhibiting variability of ~\\ -21‰, within the different proxies, which indicates changes between C3 and C4 vegetation. This likely indicates changes between a sub-tropical forested environment and more arid, grassy plains conditions. These changes in plant assemblages were in response to changes in available water resources, with increased temperatures and evapotranspiration leading to arid conditions and a shift toward less C3 vegetation (increased C4 vegetation) during the MWP. The cave sediment fulvic acid cabon isotopes record agrees well with ä13C values from a speleothem collected nearby that covers the same time period. Prolonged migration of the NAO and ITCZ affects precipitation in Florida and likely caused vegetation changes during these climatic shifts.

Holocene multi-proxy environmental reconstruction from lake Hakluytvatnet, Amsterdamøya Island, Svalbard (79.5°N)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gjerde, Marthe; Bakke, Jostein; D'Andrea, William J.; Balascio, Nicholas L.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Vasskog, Kristian; Ólafsdóttir, Sædis; Røthe, Torgeir O.; Perren, Bianca B.; Hormes, Anne

2018-03-01

High resolution proxy records of past climate are sparse in the Arctic due to low organic production that restricts the use of radiocarbon dating and challenging logistics that make data collection difficult. Here, we present a new lake record from lake Hakluytvatnet at Amsterdamøya island (79.5°N), the northwesternmost island on Svalbard. Multi-proxy analyses of lake sediments in combination with geomorphological mapping reveal large environmental shifts that have taken place at Amsterdamøya during the Holocene. A robust chronology has been established for the lake sediment core through 28 AMS radiocarbon ages, and this gives an exceptionally well-constrained age control for a lake at this latitude. The Holocene was a period with large changes in the Hakluytvatnet catchment, and the onset of the Neoglacial (ca. 5 ka) marks the start of modern-day conditions in the catchment. The Neoglacial is characterized by fluctuations in the minerogenic input to the lake as well as internal productivity, and we suggest that these fluctuations are driven by atmospherically forced precipitation changes as well as sea ice extent modulating the amount of moisture that can reach Hakluytvatnet.

Efficacy of single and multi-metric fish-based indices in tracking anthropogenic pressures in estuaries: An 8-year case study.

PubMed

Martinho, Filipe; Nyitrai, Daniel; Crespo, Daniel; Pardal, Miguel A

2015-12-15

Facing a generalized increase in water degradation, several programmes have been implemented for protecting and enhancing the water quality and associated wildlife, which rely on ecological indicators to assess the degree of deviation from a pristine state. Here, single (species number, Shannon-Wiener H', Pielou J') and multi-metric (Estuarine Fish Assessment Index, EFAI) community-based ecological quality measures were evaluated in a temperate estuary over an 8-year period (2005-2012), and established their relationships with an anthropogenic pressure index (API). Single metric indices were highly variable and neither concordant amongst themselves nor with the EFAI. The EFAI was the only index significantly correlated with the API, indicating that higher ecological quality was associated with lower anthropogenic pressure. Pressure scenarios were related with specific fish community composition, as a result of distinct food web complexity and nursery functioning of the estuary. Results were discussed in the scope of the implementation of water protection programmes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anthropogenic impact on environmental filamentous fungi communities along the Mediterranean littoral.

PubMed

Al-Yasiri, Mohammed Hashim; Normand, Anne-Cécile; Mauffrey, Jean-François; Ranque, Stéphane

2017-07-01

We hypothesised that anthropogenic influences impact the filamentous fungi community structure and that particular species or species patterns might serve as markers to characterise ecosystems. This study aimed to describe the filamentous fungi community structure in various biotopes along the Mediterranean shore that were exposed to various levels of anthropogenic influence. We sampled filamentous fungi from yellow-legged gull faecal samples at five study sites along the Mediterranean littoral in southern France. The sites were characterised by variable anthropogenic influence, ranging from building rooftops in two cities to a natural reserve. The sites also included two suburban ecoclines, one of which was exposed to sewer pollution. Filamentous fungal colonies were quantified and identified via MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry. Interestingly, we found that both fungal diversity and abundance were low in urban areas compared with suburban ecocline or environments little affected by anthropogenic influence. Furthermore, some fungal species were clearly associated with particular environments. In particular, Mucor circinelloides was associated with a natural environment with little anthropogenic impact and distant from human settlements. Whereas, Scedosporium apiospermum was associated with an ecocline polluted by sewage. Our findings indicate that particular fungal species or species combination might be used as surrogate markers of ecosystems exposed to anthropogenic pollution. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The Power of Cooperation in International Paleoclimate Science: Examples from the PAGES 2k Network and the Ocean2k Working Group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addison, J. A.

2015-12-01

The Past Global Changes (PAGES) project of IGBP and Future Earth supports research to understand the Earth's past environment to improve future climate predictions and inform strategies for sustainability. Within this framework, the PAGES 2k Network was established to provide a focus on the past 2000 years, a period that encompasses Medieval Climate Anomaly warming, Little Ice Age cooling, and recent anthropogenically-forced climate change. The results of these studies are used for testing earth system models, and for understanding decadal- to centennial-scale variability, which is needed for long-term planning. International coordination and cooperation among the nine regional Working Groups that make up the 2k Network has been critical to the success of PAGES 2k. The collaborative approach is moving toward scientific achievements across the regional groups, including: (i) the development of a community-driven open-access proxy climate database; (ii) integration of multi-resolution proxy records; (iii) development of multivariate climate reconstructions; and (iv) a leap forward in the spatial resolution of paleoclimate reconstructions. The last addition to the 2k Network, the Ocean2k Working Group has further innovated the collaborative approach by: (1) creating an open, receptive environment to discuss ideas exclusively in the virtual space; (2) employing an array of real-time collaborative software tools to enable communication, group document writing, and data analysis; (3) consolidating executive leadership teams to oversee project development and manage grassroots-style volunteer pools; and (4) embracing the value-added role that international and interdisciplinary science can play in advancing paleoclimate hypotheses critical to understanding future change. Ongoing efforts for the PAGES 2k Network are focused on developing new standards for data quality control and archiving. These tasks will provide the foundation for new and continuing "trans-regional" 2k projects which address paleoclimate science that transcend regional boundaries. The PAGES 2k Network encourages participation by all investigators interested in this community-wide project.

Geochemical Ecology of a High Latitude Coral: Plesiastrea versipora a new Paleo-Environmental Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgess, S. N.; McCulloch, M. M.; Ward, T.

2005-12-01

Corals growing in high latitude waters in Southern Australia are considered to be sensitive to changes in climate, including seasonal fluctuations in sea surface temperature. The annual nature of density bands of Plesiastrea versipora were verified using U/Th ages derived from multi-collector ICP-MS analyses and the resulting extension rates varied from an average of 1.2 mm yr -1 to 9 mm yr -1 for different colonies ranging in age from 120 - 300 years, located within the same reef. High resolution laser-ablation ICP-MS analyses of established paleo-temperature proxies including B/Ca, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and U/Ca were obtained from several cores of P. versipora from Gulf St Vincent (34.5°S) and Spencer Gulf (35°S), South Australia. Elemental compositions were compared to in situ sea surface temperature (SST) and satellite (IGOSS) records, and demonstrate significant covariance between Ba/Ca and temperature. Barium may not have been recognised as a temperature proxy in previous studies due to the smaller temperature range for lower latitude environments (~ 5°C versus 12°C for this study) and other factors contributing to the Ba signal such as terrestrially-derived or upwelled sources. Other trace elements analysed gave an indication of both the nutrient availability (P and Mn) and terrestrially derived pollutants (V, Y, Mo, Sn and Pb) correlating strongly with luminescent bands. Several of the stronger luminescent bands coincide temporally with known oil spills at a nearby port refinery and research is ongoing to determine if this is the point source of pollution. These data taken together suggest that P. versipora can provide valuable paleoclimate information in high-latitude environments, recording large seasonal variation in both temperature and productivity regimes with high fidelity and may also be employed to reconstruct anthropogenic activity.

Timescale dependence of the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon strength and precipitation over eastern China in the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jian; Yan, Qing; Wang, Huijun

2018-04-01

Precipitation/humidity proxies are widely used to reconstruct the historical East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variations based on the assumption that summer precipitation over eastern China is closely and stably linked to the strength of EASM. However, whether the observed EASM-precipitation relationship (e.g., increased precipitation with a stronger EASM) was stable throughout the past remains unclear. In this study, we used model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III and Community Earth System Model to investigate the stability of the EASM-precipitation relationship over the last millennium on different timescales. The model results indicate that the EASM strength (defined as the regionally averaged meridional wind) was enhanced in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ˜ 950-1250 AD), during which there was increased precipitation over eastern China, and weakened during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ˜ 1500-1800 AD), during which there was decreased precipitation, consistent with precipitation/humidity proxies. However, the simulated EASM-precipitation relationship is only stable on a centennial and longer timescale and is unstable on a shorter timescale. The nonstationary short-timescale EASM-precipitation relationship broadly exhibits a multi-decadal periodicity, which may be attributed to the internal variability of the climate system and has no significant correlation to external forcings. Our results have implications for understanding the discrepancy among various EASM proxies on a multi-decadal timescale and highlight the need to rethink reconstructed decadal EASM variations based on precipitation/humidity proxies.

The Sensitivity of the North American Monsoon to Deglacial Climate Change in Proxies and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, T.; Tierney, J. E.

2017-12-01

The North American Monsoon (NAM), which brings summer rainfall to the arid US Southwest and northwestern Mexico, remains one of the least understood monsoon systems. Model simulations produce divergent NAM responses to future anthropogenic warming, and many paleoclimatic records from the NAM region are more sensitive to winter rainfall than the summertime circulation. As a result, we have an incomplete understanding of NAM sensitivity to past and future global climate change. Our work seeks to improve understanding of NAM dynamics using new proxy records and model simulations. We have developed quantitative reconstructions of NAM strength since the LGM ( 21 ka BP) using leaf wax biomarkers (e.g. dD of n-acids) from marine sediment cores in the Gulf of California. We contrast these proxy records with idealized GCM simulations (i.e. CESM1.2) to diagnose the mechanisms behind NAM responses to LGM boundary conditions and abrupt deglacial climate events. Our results suggest that ice-sheet induced changes in atmospheric circulation acted in concert with local changes in Gulf of California SSTs to modulate the late glacial NAM. This work has important implications for our understanding of NAM dynamics, its relationship with other monsoon systems, and its sensitivity to past and future global climate change.

Environmental factors influencing the spatio-temporal distribution of Carybdea marsupialis (Lineo, 1978, Cubozoa) in South-Western Mediterranean coasts

PubMed Central

Fuentes, Verónica; Bosch-Belmar, Mar; Acevedo, Melissa; Toledo-Guedes, Kilian; Ortiz, Antonio; Durá, Elia; Bordehore, César; Gili, Josep-Maria

2017-01-01

Jellyfish blooms cause important ecological and socio-economic problems. Among jellyfish, cubozoans are infamous for their painful, sometimes deadly, stings and are a major public concern in tropical to subtropical areas; however, there is little information about the possible causes of their outbreaks. After a bloom of the cubomedusa Carybdea marsupialis (Carybdeidae) along the coast of Denia (SW Mediterranean, Spain) in 2008 with negative consequences for local tourism, the necessity to understand the ecological restrictions on medusae abundance was evident. Here we use different models (GAM and zero-inflated models) to understand the environmental and human related factors influencing the abundance and distribution of C. marsupialis along the coast of Denia. Selected variables differed among medusae size classes, showing different environmental restriction associated to the developmental stages of the species. Variables implicated with dispersion (e.g. wind and current) affected mostly small and medium size classes. Sea surface temperature, salinity and proxies of primary production (chl a, phosphates, nitrates) were related to the abundances of small and large size classes, highlighting the roles of springtime salinity changes and increased primary production that may promote and maintain high densities of this species. The increased primary (and secondary) production due to anthropogenic impact is implicated as the factor enabling high numbers of C. marsupialis to thrive. Recommendations for monitoring blooms of this species along the study area and applicable to Mediterranean Sea include focus effort in coastal waters where productivity have been enriched by anthropogenic activities. PMID:28746410

Applying a family systems lens to proxy decision making in clinical practice and research.

PubMed

Rolland, John S; Emanuel, Linda L; Torke, Alexia M

2017-03-01

When patients are incapacitated and face serious illness, family members must make medical decisions for the patient. Medical decision sciences give only modest attention to the relationships among patients and their family members, including impact that these relationships have on the decision-making process. A review of the literature reveals little effort to systematically apply a theoretical framework to the role of family interactions in proxy decision making. A family systems perspective can provide a useful lens through which to understand the dynamics of proxy decision making. This article considers the mutual impact of family systems on the processes and outcomes of proxy decision making. The article first reviews medical decision science's evolution and focus on proxy decision making and then reviews a family systems approach, giving particular attention to Rolland's Family Systems Illness Model. A case illustrates how clinical practice and how research would benefit from bringing family systems thinking to proxy decisions. We recommend including a family systems approach in medical decision science research and clinical practices around proxy decisions making. We propose that clinical decisions could be less conflicted and less emotionally troubling for families and clinicians if family systems approaches were included. This perspective opens new directions for research and novel approaches to clinical care. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Use of the Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) as a pre-filter for ice nucleation measurements: effect of particle mixing state and determination of SP2 conditions to fully vaporize refractory black carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schill, Gregory P.; DeMott, Paul J.; Levin, Ezra J. T.; Kreidenweis, Sonia M.

2018-05-01

Ice nucleation is a fundamental atmospheric process that impacts precipitation, cloud lifetimes, and climate. Challenges remain to identify and quantify the compositions and sources of ice-nucleating particles (INPs). Assessment of the role of black carbon (BC) as an INP is particularly important due to its anthropogenic sources and abundance at upper-tropospheric cloud levels. The role of BC as an INP, however, is unclear. This is, in part, driven by a lack of techniques that directly determine the contribution of refractory BC (rBC) to INP concentrations. One previously developed technique to measure this contribution uses the Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) as a pre-filter to an online ice-nucleating particle counter. In this technique, rBC particles are selectively heated to their vaporization temperature in the SP2 cavity by a 1064 nm laser. From previous work, however, it is unclear under what SP2 conditions, if any, the original rBC particles were fully vaporized. Furthermore, previous work also left questions about the effect of the SP2 laser on the ice-nucleating properties of several INP proxies and their mixtures with rBC.To answer these questions, we sampled the exhaust of an SP2 with a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer and a Continuous Flow Diffusion Chamber. Using Aquadag® as an rBC proxy, the effect of several SP2 instrument parameters on the size distribution and physical properties of particles in rBC SP2 exhaust were explored. We found that a high SP2 laser power (930 nW/(220 nm PSL)) is required to fully vaporize a ˜ 0.76 fg rBC particle. We also found that the exhaust particle size distribution is minimally affected by the SP2 sheath-to-sample ratio; the size of the original rBC particle, however, greatly influences the size distribution of the SP2 exhaust. The effect of the SP2 laser on the ice nucleation efficiency of Snomax®, NX-illite, and Suwannee River Fulvic Acid was studied; these particles acted as proxies for biological, illite-rich mineral dust, and brown carbon INPs, respectively. The original size distribution and ice nucleation efficiency of all non-rBC proxies were unaffected by the SP2 laser. Furthermore, the ice nucleation efficiencies of all proxies were not affected when externally mixed with rBC. These proxies, however, always show a reduction in ice-nucleating ability when internally mixed with rBC. We end this work with recommendations for users who wish to use the SP2 as a pre-filter to remove large rBC particles from an aerosol stream.

Development of six PROMIS pediatrics proxy-report item banks

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pediatric self-report should be considered the standard for measuring patient reported outcomes (PRO) among children. However, circumstances exist when the child is too young, cognitively impaired, or too ill to complete a PRO instrument and a proxy-report is needed. This paper describes the development process including the proxy cognitive interviews and large-field-test survey methods and sample characteristics employed to produce item parameters for the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) pediatric proxy-report item banks. Methods The PROMIS pediatric self-report items were converted into proxy-report items before undergoing cognitive interviews. These items covered six domains (physical function, emotional distress, social peer relationships, fatigue, pain interference, and asthma impact). Caregivers (n = 25) of children ages of 5 and 17 years provided qualitative feedback on proxy-report items to assess any major issues with these items. From May 2008 to March 2009, the large-scale survey enrolled children ages 8-17 years to complete the self-report version and caregivers to complete the proxy-report version of the survey (n = 1548 dyads). Caregivers of children ages 5 to 7 years completed the proxy report survey (n = 432). In addition, caregivers completed other proxy instruments, PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales Parent Proxy-Report version, PedsQL™ Asthma Module Parent Proxy-Report version, and KIDSCREEN Parent-Proxy-52. Results Item content was well understood by proxies and did not require item revisions but some proxies clearly noted that determining an answer on behalf of their child was difficult for some items. Dyads and caregivers of children ages 5-17 years old were enrolled in the large-scale testing. The majority were female (85%), married (70%), Caucasian (64%) and had at least a high school education (94%). Approximately 50% had children with a chronic health condition, primarily asthma, which was diagnosed or treated within 6 months prior to the interview. The PROMIS proxy sample scored similar or better on the other proxy instruments compared to normative samples. Conclusions The initial calibration data was provided by a diverse set of caregivers of children with a variety of common chronic illnesses and racial/ethnic backgrounds. The PROMIS pediatric proxy-report item banks include physical function (mobility n = 23; upper extremity n = 29), emotional distress (anxiety n = 15; depressive symptoms n = 14; anger n = 5), social peer relationships (n = 15), fatigue (n = 34), pain interference (n = 13), and asthma impact (n = 17). PMID:22357192

Amounts, isotopic character, and ages of organic and inorganic carbon exported from rivers to ocean margins: 2. Assessment of natural and anthropogenic controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossler, Katie; Bauer, James E.

2013-04-01

Riverine exports of carbon (C) and organic matter (OM) are regulated by a variety of natural and anthropogenic factors. Understanding the relationships between these various factors and C and OM exports can help to constrain global C budgets and allow assessment of current and future anthropogenic impacts on both riverine and global C cycles. We quantified the effects of multiple natural and anthropogenic controls on riverine export fluxes and compositions of particulate organic C, dissolved organic C, and dissolved inorganic C for a regional group of eight rivers in the northeastern U.S. Potential controls related to hydrogeomorphology and regional climate, soil order, soil texture, bedrock lithology, land use, and anthropogenic factors were analyzed individually, collectively, and at scales of both local and regional influence. Factors related to hydrogeomorphology and climate, followed in importance by land use and anthropogenic factors, exhibited the strongest impacts on riverine C exports and compositions, particularly at smaller localized scales. The effects of hydrogeomorphology and climate were primarily related to volumetric flow, which resulted in greater exports of terrestrial and total C. Principal anthropogenic factors included impacts of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and river impoundments. The presence of WWTPs as well as anthropogenic use of carbonate-based materials (e.g., limestone) may have substantially increased riverine C exports, particularly fossil C exports, in the study region. The presence of nuclear power plants in the associated watersheds is also discussed because of the potential for anthropogenic 14C inputs and subsequent biasing of aquatic C studies utilizing natural abundance 14C.

Influence of boundary conditions to multi-model simulations of ozone and PM2.5 levels over Europe and North America in frame of AQMEII3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Ulas; Hansen, Kaj M.; Geels, Camilla; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen; Hogrefe, Christian; Galmarini, Stefano

2016-04-01

AQMEII (Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative) promotes research on regional air quality model evaluation across the European and North American atmospheric modelling communities, providing the ideal platform for advancing the evaluation of air quality models at the regional scale. In frame of the AQMEII3 model evaluation exercise, thirteen regional chemistry and transport models have simulated the air pollutant levels over Europe and/or North America for the year 2010, along with various sensitivity simulations of reductions in anthropogenic emissions and boundary conditions. All participating groups have performed sensitivity simulation with 20% reductions in global (GLO) anthropogenic emissions. In addition, various groups simulated sensitivity scenarios of 20% reductions in anthropogenic emissions in different HTAP-defined regions such as North America (NAM), Europe (EUR) and East Asia (EAS). The boundary conditions for the base case and the perturbation scenarios were derived from the MOZART-IFS global chemical model. The present study will evaluate the impact of these emission perturbations on regional surface ozone and PM2.5 levels as well as over individual surface measurement stations over both continents and vertical profiles over the radiosonde stations from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations for ozone and for PM2.5, respectively.

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

2012-01-01

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

Multi-criteria evaluation of hydro-geological and anthropogenic parameters for the groundwater vulnerability assessment.

PubMed

Kumar, Prashant; Thakur, Praveen K; Bansod, Baban Ks; Debnath, Sanjit K

2017-10-16

Groundwater contamination assessment is a challenging task due to inherent complex dynamisms associated with the groundwater. DRASTIC is a very widely used rapid regional tool for the assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. DRASTIC has many lacunas in the form of subjectivities associated with weights and ratings of its hydro-geological parameters, and, therefore, the accuracy of the DRASTIC-based vulnerability map is questioned. The present study demonstrates the optimisation of the DRASTIC parameters along with a scientific consideration to the anthropogenic factors causing groundwater contamination. The resulting scientific consistent weights and ratings to DRASTIC parameters assist in the development of a very precise groundwater vulnerability map highlighting different zones of different gravity of contamination. One of the most important aspects of this study is that we have considered the impact of vadose zone in a very comprehensive manner by considering every sub-surface layer from the earth surface to the occurrence of groundwater. The study area for our experiment is Fatehgarh Sahib district of Punjab which is facing several groundwater issues.

Very high-temperature impact melt products as evidence for cosmic airbursts and impacts 12,900 years ago.

PubMed

Bunch, Ted E; Hermes, Robert E; Moore, Andrew M T; Kennett, Douglas J; Weaver, James C; Wittke, James H; DeCarli, Paul S; Bischoff, James L; Hillman, Gordon C; Howard, George A; Kimbel, David R; Kletetschka, Gunther; Lipo, Carl P; Sakai, Sachiko; Revay, Zsolt; West, Allen; Firestone, Richard B; Kennett, James P

2012-07-10

It has been proposed that fragments of an asteroid or comet impacted Earth, deposited silica- and iron-rich microspherules and other proxies across several continents, and triggered the Younger Dryas cooling episode 12,900 years ago. Although many independent groups have confirmed the impact evidence, the hypothesis remains controversial because some groups have failed to do so. We examined sediment sequences from 18 dated Younger Dryas boundary (YDB) sites across three continents (North America, Europe, and Asia), spanning 12,000 km around nearly one-third of the planet. All sites display abundant microspherules in the YDB with none or few above and below. In addition, three sites (Abu Hureyra, Syria; Melrose, Pennsylvania; and Blackville, South Carolina) display vesicular, high-temperature, siliceous scoria-like objects, or SLOs, that match the spherules geochemically. We compared YDB objects with melt products from a known cosmic impact (Meteor Crater, Arizona) and from the 1945 Trinity nuclear airburst in Socorro, New Mexico, and found that all of these high-energy events produced material that is geochemically and morphologically comparable, including: (i) high-temperature, rapidly quenched microspherules and SLOs; (ii) corundum, mullite, and suessite (Fe(3)Si), a rare meteoritic mineral that forms under high temperatures; (iii) melted SiO(2) glass, or lechatelierite, with flow textures (or schlieren) that form at > 2,200 °C; and (iv) particles with features indicative of high-energy interparticle collisions. These results are inconsistent with anthropogenic, volcanic, authigenic, and cosmic materials, yet consistent with cosmic ejecta, supporting the hypothesis of extraterrestrial airbursts/impacts 12,900 years ago. The wide geographic distribution of SLOs is consistent with multiple impactors.

Evidence for deposition of 10 million tonnes of impact spherules across four continents 12,800 y ago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wittke, James H.; Weaver, James C.; Bunch, Ted E.; Kennett, James P.; Kennett, Douglas J.; Moore, Andrew M.T.; Hillman, Gordon C.; Tankersly, Kenneth B.; Goodyear, Albert C.; Moore, Christopher R.; Daniel, I. Randolph; Ray, Jack H.; Lopinot, Neal H.; Ferraro, David; Israde-Alcántara, Isabel; Bischoff, James L.; DeCarli, Paul S.; Hermes, Robert E.; Kloosterman, Johan B.; Revay, Zsolt; Howard, George A.; Kimbel, David R.; Kletetschka, Gunther; Nabelek, Ladislav; Lipo, Carl P.; Sakai, Sachiko; West, Allen; Firestone, Richard B.

2013-01-01

Airbursts/impacts by a fragmented comet or asteroid have been proposed at the Younger Dryas onset (12.80 ± 0.15 ka) based on identification of an assemblage of impact-related proxies, including microspherules, nanodiamonds, and iridium. Distributed across four continents at the Younger Dryas boundary (YDB), spherule peaks have been independently confirmed in eight studies, but unconfirmed in two others, resulting in continued dispute about their occurrence, distribution, and origin. To further address this dispute and better identify YDB spherules, we present results from one of the largest spherule investigations ever undertaken regarding spherule geochemistry, morphologies, origins, and processes of formation. We investigated 18 sites across North America, Europe, and the Middle East, performing nearly 700 analyses on spherules using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy for geochemical analyses and scanning electron microscopy for surface microstructural characterization. Twelve locations rank among the world’s premier end-Pleistocene archaeological sites, where the YDB marks a hiatus in human occupation or major changes in site use. Our results are consistent with melting of sediments to temperatures >2,200 °C by the thermal radiation and air shocks produced by passage of an extraterrestrial object through the atmosphere; they are inconsistent with volcanic, cosmic, anthropogenic, lightning, or authigenic sources. We also produced spherules from wood in the laboratory at >1,730 °C, indicating that impact-related incineration of biomass may have contributed to spherule production. At 12.8 ka, an estimated 10 million tonnes of spherules were distributed across ∼50 million square kilometers, similar to well-known impact strewnfields and consistent with a major cosmic impact event.

Very high-temperature impact melt products as evidence for cosmic airbursts and impacts 12,900 years ago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunch, Ted E.; Hermes, Robert E.; Moore, Andrew M.T.; Kennett, Douglas J.; Weaver, James C.; Wittke, James H.; DeCarli, Paul S.; Bischoff, James L.; Hillman, Gordon C.; Howard, George A.; Kimbel, David R.; Kletetschka, Gunther; Lipo, Carl P.; Sakai, Sachiko; Revay, Zsolt; West, Allen; Firestone, Richard B.; Kennett, James P.

2012-01-01

It has been proposed that fragments of an asteroid or comet impacted Earth, deposited silica-and iron-rich microspherules and other proxies across several continents, and triggered the Younger Dryas cooling episode 12,900 years ago. Although many independent groups have confirmed the impact evidence, the hypothesis remains controversial because some groups have failed to do so. We examined sediment sequences from 18 dated Younger Dryas boundary (YDB) sites across three continents (North America, Europe, and Asia), spanning 12,000 km around nearly one-third of the planet. All sites display abundant microspherules in the YDB with none or few above and below. In addition, three sites (Abu Hureyra, Syria; Melrose, Pennsylvania; and Blackville, South Carolina) display vesicular, high-temperature, siliceous scoria-like objects, or SLOs, that match the spherules geochemically. We compared YDB objects with melt products from a known cosmic impact (Meteor Crater, Arizona) and from the 1945 Trinity nuclear airburst in Socorro, New Mexico, and found that all of these high-energy events produced material that is geochemically and morphologically comparable, including: (i) high-temperature, rapidly quenched microspherules and SLOs; (ii) corundum, mullite, and suessite (Fe3,/sup>Si), a rare meteoritic mineral that forms under high temperatures; (iii) melted SiO2 glass, or lechatelierite, with flow textures (or schlieren) that form at > 2,200 °C; and (iv) particles with features indicative of high-energy interparticle collisions. These results are inconsistent with anthropogenic, volcanic, authigenic, and cosmic materials, yet consistent with cosmic ejecta, supporting the hypothesis of extraterrestrial airbursts/impacts 12,900 years ago. The wide geographic distribution of SLOs is consistent with multiple impactors.

Evidence for deposition of 10 million tonnes of impact spherules across four continents 12,800 y ago

PubMed Central

Wittke, James H.; Weaver, James C.; Bunch, Ted E.; Kennett, James P.; Kennett, Douglas J.; Moore, Andrew M. T.; Hillman, Gordon C.; Tankersley, Kenneth B.; Goodyear, Albert C.; Moore, Christopher R.; Daniel, I. Randolph; Ray, Jack H.; Lopinot, Neal H.; Ferraro, David; Israde-Alcántara, Isabel; Bischoff, James L.; DeCarli, Paul S.; Hermes, Robert E.; Kloosterman, Johan B.; Revay, Zsolt; Howard, George A.; Kimbel, David R.; Kletetschka, Gunther; Nabelek, Ladislav; Lipo, Carl P.; Sakai, Sachiko; West, Allen; Firestone, Richard B.

2013-01-01

Airbursts/impacts by a fragmented comet or asteroid have been proposed at the Younger Dryas onset (12.80 ± 0.15 ka) based on identification of an assemblage of impact-related proxies, including microspherules, nanodiamonds, and iridium. Distributed across four continents at the Younger Dryas boundary (YDB), spherule peaks have been independently confirmed in eight studies, but unconfirmed in two others, resulting in continued dispute about their occurrence, distribution, and origin. To further address this dispute and better identify YDB spherules, we present results from one of the largest spherule investigations ever undertaken regarding spherule geochemistry, morphologies, origins, and processes of formation. We investigated 18 sites across North America, Europe, and the Middle East, performing nearly 700 analyses on spherules using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy for geochemical analyses and scanning electron microscopy for surface microstructural characterization. Twelve locations rank among the world’s premier end-Pleistocene archaeological sites, where the YDB marks a hiatus in human occupation or major changes in site use. Our results are consistent with melting of sediments to temperatures >2,200 °C by the thermal radiation and air shocks produced by passage of an extraterrestrial object through the atmosphere; they are inconsistent with volcanic, cosmic, anthropogenic, lightning, or authigenic sources. We also produced spherules from wood in the laboratory at >1,730 °C, indicating that impact-related incineration of biomass may have contributed to spherule production. At 12.8 ka, an estimated 10 million tonnes of spherules were distributed across ∼50 million square kilometers, similar to well-known impact strewnfields and consistent with a major cosmic impact event. PMID:23690611

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

2016-12-01

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. However, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. Additionally, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE PAGES

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; ...

2016-12-02

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

Trends of anthropogenic mercury emissions from 1970-2008 using the global EDGARv4 database: the role of increasing emission mitigation by the energy sector and the chlor-alkali industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muntean, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Olivier, J. G.; Guizzardi, D.; Dentener, F. J.

2012-12-01

The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) describes time-series of emissions of man-made greenhouse gases and short-lived atmospheric pollutants from 1970-2008. EDGARv4 is continuously updated to respond to needs of both the scientific community and environmental policy makers. Mercury, a toxic pollutant with bioaccumulation properties, is included in the forthcoming EDGARv4.3 release, thereby enriching the spectrum of multi-pollutant sources. Three different forms of mercury have been distinguished: gaseous elemental mercury (Hg0), divalent mercury compounds (Hg2+) and particulate associated mercury (Hg-P). A complete inventory of mercury emission sources has been developed at country level using the EDGAR technology-based methodology together with international activity statistics, technology-specific abatement measures, and emission factors from EMEP/EEA (2009), USEPA AP 42 and the scientific literature. A comparison of the EDGAR mercury emission data to the widely used UNEP inventory shows consistent emissions across most sectors compared for the year 2005. The different shares of mercury emissions by region and by sector will be presented with special emphasis on the region-specific mercury emission mitigation potential. We provide a comprehensive ex-post analysis of the mitigation of mercury emissions by respectively end-of-pipe abatement measures in the power generation sector and technology changes in the chlor-alkali industry between 1970 and 2008. Given the local scale impacts of mercury, we have paid special attention to the spatial distribution of emissions. The default EDGAR Population proxy data was only used to distribute emissions from the residential and solid waste incineration sectors. Other sectors use point source data of power plants, industrial plants, gold and mercury mines. The 2008 mercury emission distribution will be presented, which shows emissions hot-spots on a 0.1°x0.1°resolution gridmap.

ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS ON MACROINVERTEBRATE INDICATORS IN OHIO

EPA Science Inventory

In the past few years, there has been increasing interest in using biological community data to provide information about specific anthropogenic factors impacting streams. Previous studies have used statistical approaches that are variants of classical and modern multiple regres...

Loess as an environmental archive of atmospheric trace element deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blazina, T.; Winkel, L. H.

2013-12-01

Environmental archives such as ice cores, lake sediment cores, and peat cores have been used extensively to reconstruct past atmospheric deposition of trace elements. These records have provided information about how anthropogenic activities such as mining and fossil fuel combustion have disturbed the natural cycles of various atmospherically transported trace elements (e.g. Pb, Hg and Se). While these records are invaluable for tracing human impacts on such trace elements, they often provide limited information about the long term natural cycles of these elements. An assumption of these records is that the observed variations in trace element input, prior to any assumed anthropogenic perturbations, represent the full range of natural variations. However, records such as those mentioned above which extend back to a maximum of ~400kyr may not capture the potentially large variations of trace element input occurring over millions of years. Windblown loess sediments, often representing atmospheric deposition over time scales >1Ma, are the most widely distributed terrestrial sediments on Earth. These deposits have been used extensively to reconstruct continental climate variability throughout the Quaternary and late Neogene periods. In addition to being a valuable record of continental climate change, loess deposits may represent a long term environmental archive of atmospheric trace element deposition and may be combined with paleoclimate records to elucidate how fluctuations in climate have impacted the natural cycle of such elements. Our research uses the loess-paleosol deposits on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) to quantify how atmospheric deposition of trace elements has fluctuated in central China over the past 6.8Ma. The CLP has been used extensively to reconstruct past changes of East Asian monsoon system (EAM). We present a suite of trace element concentration records (e.g. Pb, Hg, and Se) from the CLP which exemplifies how loess deposits can be used as an environmental archive to reconstruct long term natural variations in atmospheric trace element input. By comparing paleomonsoon proxy data with geochemical data we can directly correlate variations in atmospheric trace element input to fluctuations in the EAM. For example we are able to link Se input into the CLP to EAM derived precipitation. In interglacial climatic periods from 2.3-1.56Ma and 1.50-1.29Ma, we find very strong positive correlations between Se concentration and the summer monsoon index, a proxy for effective precipitation. In later interglacial periods from 1.26-0.83Ma and 0.78-0.16Ma, we find dust input plays a greater role. Our findings demonstrate that the CLP is a valuable environmental archive of atmospheric trace element deposition and suggest that other loess deposits worldwide may serve as useful records for investigating long term natural variations in atmospheric trace element cycling.

Assessing the impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes on flow and phosphorus flux in the Ganga river system.

PubMed

Jin, L; Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Sinha, R; Futter, M N; Butterfield, D; Caesar, J; Crossman, J

2015-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change has impacted and will continue to impact the natural environment and people around the world. Increasing temperatures and altered rainfall patterns combined with socio-economic factors such as population changes, land use changes and water transfers will affect flows and nutrient fluxes in river systems. The Ganga river, one of the largest river systems in the world, supports approximately 10% global population and more than 700 cities. Changes in the Ganga river system are likely to have a significant impact on water availability, water quality, aquatic habitats and people. In order to investigate these potential changes on the flow and water quality of the Ganga river, a multi-branch version of INCA Phosphorus (INCA-P) model has been applied to the entire river system. The model is used to quantify the impacts from a changing climate, population growth, additional agricultural land, pollution control and water transfers for 2041-2060 and 2080-2099. The results provide valuable information about potential effects of different management strategies on catchment water quality.

An Ice Core Perspective on Aleutian Low Variability over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterberg, E. C.; Winski, D.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Campbell, S.; Introne, D.

2016-12-01

The Aleutian Low (ALow) is the dominant feature of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific, strongly influencing wintertime temperature, precipitation and wind patterns in Alaska and the Yukon Territory, as well as further downstream in North America via atmospheric teleconnections. Changes in ALow strength are known to impact marine ecosystems by contributing to the multi-decadal sea-surface temperature mode in the North Pacific known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Meteorological records show that in addition to distinct PDO-like variability, the ALow has intensified over the 20th century. However, ALow variability prior to the instrumental period remains unclear due to generally poor correlations among published ALow and PDO reconstructions, including the Mt. Logan ice core ALow record. An improved understanding of past ALow variability is critical for evaluating natural ALow forcing mechanisms, placing the 20th century intensification in context, and improving ALow projections under increased anthropogenic forcing. Here we combine ALow-sensitive time series from the new Denali ice core and the Mt. Logan ice core to develop a high-resolution (1-3 year) multi-ice-core record of ALow variability over the past 1500 years. The Denali ice core was collected from the summit plateau (3900 m) of Mt. Hunter in 2013, and was sampled using the Dartmouth continuous melter system with discrete sampling for major ion (IC), trace element (ICP-MS), and stable isotope ratios (Picarro), as well as continuous flow analyses for dust size and concentration (Klotz Abakus). We focus here on the sea-salt sodium time series, and calibrate our record over the 20th century with reanalysis wind speed and pressure data. The Denali sodium record of ALow strength strongly resembles the Mt. Logan ALow record, with both showing a recent intensification of the ALow that started in the late 1600s and continues into the 20th century. Both records reveal that the ALow was stronger during the late 19th to 20th centuries than earlier in the last millennium, and both show a previous strong ALow period from ca. 500-900 AD. We compare our mutli-core ALow record to other ALow-sensitive ice core time series, as well as to ALow records from other proxy archives and General Circulation Models.

Determining metal origins and availability in fluvial deposits by analysis of geochemical baselines and solid-solution partitioning measurements and modelling.

PubMed

Vijver, Martina G; Spijker, Job; Vink, Jos P M; Posthuma, Leo

2008-12-01

Metals in floodplain soils and sediments (deposits) can originate from lithogenic and anthropogenic sources, and their availability for uptake in biota is hypothesized to depend on both origin and local sediment conditions. In criteria-based environmental risk assessments, these issues are often neglected, implying local risks to be often over-estimated. Current problem definitions in river basin management tend to require a refined, site-specific focus, resulting in a need to address both aspects. This paper focuses on the determination of local environmental availabilities of metals in fluvial deposits by addressing both the origins of the metals and their partitioning over the solid and solution phases. The environmental availability of metals is assumed to be a key force influencing exposure levels in field soils and sediments. Anthropogenic enrichments of Cu, Zn and Pb in top layers could be distinguished from lithogenic background concentrations and described using an aluminium-proxy. Cd in top layers was attributed to anthropogenic enrichment almost fully. Anthropogenic enrichments for Cu and Zn appeared further to be also represented by cold 2M HNO3 extraction of site samples. For Pb the extractions over-estimated the enrichments. Metal partitioning was measured, and measurements were compared to predictions generated by an empirical regression model and by a mechanistic-kinetic model. The partitioning models predicted metal partitioning in floodplain deposits within about one order of magnitude, though a large inter-sample variability was found for Pb.

Testing a multi-tiered stress-gradient model for risk assessment using sediment constituents from coral reef environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lidz, B.H.; Hallock, P.; ,

2000-01-01

Coral reefs are threatened worldwide by stresses ranging from local to global in extent. One of the major challenges in studies of reef decline is understanding how to distinguish between changes resulting from natural, anthropogenic, local, and global environmental perturbations. As such, a conceptual risk-assessment model is developed that includes tiers for natural stresses, global/regional stresses, and local anthropogenic stresses.

Extended megadroughts in the southwestern United States during Pleistocene interglacials

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fawcett, P.J.; Werne, J.P.; Anderson, R. Scott; Heikoop, J.M.; Brown, E.T.; Berke, M.A.; Smith, S.J.; Goff, F.; Donohoo-Hurley, L.; Cisneros-Dozal, L. M.; Schouten, S.; Damste, J.S.S.; Huang, Y.; Toney, J.; Fessenden, J.; Woldegabriel, G.; Atudorei, V.; Geissman, J.W.; Allen, Craig D.

2011-01-01

The potential for increased drought frequency and severity linked to anthropogenic climate change in the semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States (US) is a serious concern. Multi-year droughts during the instrumental period and decadal-length droughts of the past two millennia were shorter and climatically different from the future permanent, ‘dust-bowl-like’ megadrought conditions, lasting decades to a century, that are predicted as a consequence of warming. So far, it has been unclear whether or not such megadroughts occurred in the southwestern US, and, if so, with what regularity and intensity. Here we show that periods of aridity lasting centuries to millennia occurred in the southwestern US during mid-Pleistocene interglacials. Using molecular palaeotemperature proxies to reconstruct the mean annual temperature (MAT) in mid-Pleistocene lacustrine sediment from the Valles Caldera, New Mexico, we found that the driest conditions occurred during the warmest phases of interglacials, when the MAT was comparable to or higher than the modern MAT. A collapse of drought-tolerant C4 plant communities during these warm, dry intervals indicates a significant reduction in summer precipitation, possibly in response to a poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. Three MAT cycles ∼2 °C in amplitude occurred within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 and seem to correspond to the muted precessional cycles within this interglacial. In comparison with MIS 11, MIS 13 experienced higher precessional-cycle amplitudes, larger variations in MAT (4–6 °C) and a longer period of extended warmth, suggesting that local insolation variations were important to interglacial climatic variability in the southwestern US. Comparison of the early MIS 11 climate record with the Holocene record shows many similarities and implies that, in the absence of anthropogenic forcing, the region should be entering a cooler and wetter phase.

Quantifying the impact of human activity on temperatures in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benz, Susanne A.; Bayer, Peter; Blum, Philipp

2017-04-01

Human activity directly influences ambient air, surface and groundwater temperatures. Alterations of surface cover and land use influence the ambient thermal regime causing spatial temperature anomalies, most commonly heat islands. These local temperature anomalies are primarily described within the bounds of large and densely populated urban settlements, where they form so-called urban heat islands (UHI). This study explores the anthropogenic impact not only for selected cities, but for the thermal regime on a countrywide scale, by analyzing mean annual temperature datasets in Germany in three different compartments: measured surface air temperature (SAT), measured groundwater temperature (GWT), and satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST). As a universal parameter to quantify anthropogenic heat anomalies, the anthropogenic heat intensity (AHI) is introduced. It is closely related to the urban heat island intensity, but determined for each pixel (for satellite-derived LST) or measurement point (for SAT and GWT) of a large, even global, dataset individually, regardless of land use and location. Hence, it provides the unique opportunity to a) compare the anthropogenic impact on temperatures in air, surface and subsurface, b) to find main instances of anthropogenic temperature anomalies within the study area, in this case Germany, and c) to study the impact of smaller settlements or industrial sites on temperatures. For all three analyzed temperature datasets, anthropogenic heat intensity grows with increasing nighttime lights and declines with increasing vegetation, whereas population density has only minor effects. While surface anthropogenic heat intensity cannot be linked to specific land cover types in the studied resolution (1 km × 1 km) and classification system, both air and groundwater show increased heat intensities for artificial surfaces. Overall, groundwater temperature appears most vulnerable to human activity; unlike land surface temperature and surface air temperature, groundwater temperatures are elevated in cultivated areas as well. At the surface of Germany, the highest anthropogenic heat intensity with 4.5 K is found at an open-pit lignite mine near Jülich, followed by three large cities (Munich, Düsseldorf and Nuremberg) with annual mean anthropogenic heat intensities > 4 K. Overall, surface anthropogenic heat intensities > 0 K and therefore urban heat islands are observed in communities down to a population of 5,000.

A multi-omics based ecological analysis of coastal marine sediments from Gladstone, in Australia's Central Queensland, and Heron Island, a nearby fringing platform reef.

PubMed

Beale, D J; Crosswell, J; Karpe, A V; Ahmed, W; Williams, M; Morrison, P D; Metcalfe, S; Staley, C; Sadowsky, M J; Palombo, E A; Steven, A D L

2017-12-31

The impact of anthropogenic factors arising from point and non-point pollution sources at a multi commodity marine port and its surrounding ecosystems were studied using sediment samples collected from a number of onshore (Gladstone Harbour and Facing Island) and offshore (Heron Island and Fitzroy Reefs) sites in Australia's Central Queensland. Sediment samples were analyzed for trace metals, organic carbon, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), emerging chemicals of concern (ECC) and sterols. Similarly, the biological and biochemical interaction between the reef and its environment was analyzed by the multi-omic tools of next-generation sequencing characterization of the bacterial community and microbial community metabolic profiling. Overall, the trace elements were observed at the lower end of the Australian environmental guideline values at the offshore sites, while higher values were observed for the onshore locations Nickel and copper were observed above the high trigger value threshold at the onshore sites. The levels of PAH were below limits of detection across all sites. However, some of the ECC and sterols were observed at higher concentrations at both onshore and offshore locations, notably, the cholesterol family sterols and 17α-ethynylestradiol. Multi-omic analyses also indicated possible thermal and photo irradiation stressors on the bacterial communities at all the tested sites. The observed populations of γ-proteobacteria were found in combination with an increased pool of fatty acids that indicate fatty acid synthesis and utilisation of the intermediates of the shikimate pathways. This study demonstrates the value of applying a multi-omics approach for ecological assessments, in which a more detailed assessment of physical and chemical contaminants and their impact on the community bacterial biome is obtained. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Millennial-scale Asian summer monsoon variations in South China since the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xisheng; Chu, Guoqiang; Sheng, Mei; Zhang, Shuqin; Li, Jinhua; Chen, Yun; Tang, Ling; Su, Youliang; Pei, Junling; Yang, Zhenyu

2016-10-01

Characterizing spatiotemporal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is critical for full understanding of its behavior, dynamics, and future impacts. The present knowledge about ASM variations since the last glaciation in South China largely relies on several precisely-dated speleothem stable oxygen isotope (δ18 O) records. Although these speleothem δ18 O signals provide useful evidence for regional past environmental changes, their validity for denoting ASM intensity remains a great controversy. The Huguangyan Maar Lake (HML) provides one of the most complete archives of environmental and climatic changes in the tropical-subtropical South and East Asia since the last glaciation. Here we document a continuous centennial- to millennial-scale ASM record over the past 16 ky BP from the high-sedimentation-rate HML sediments. In contrast with the low-amplitude variations of Chinese speleothem-derived δ18 O signals and the Chinese loess-based monsoon precipitation proxy indexes, our multi-proxy records reveal a pattern of high-amplitude regional climatic fluctuations, including fine-scale oscillations during the Bølling-Allerød warming, the 8.2 ka cooling event, and an abrupt climate shift from 6.5-5.9 ka. The existence of Bond-like cold/dry events indicates a distinct influence of the North Atlantic circulation on low-latitude monsoon changes. The broad comparability between the HML paleo-proxies, Chinese speleothem δ18 O records, and the northern hemisphere summer insolation throughout the Holocene, suggests that solar insolation exerts a profound influence on ASM changes. These findings reinforce a model of combined insolation and glacial forcing of the ASM.

Quantifying Impacts of Land-use and Land Cover Change in a Changing Climate at the Regional Scale using an Integrated Earth System Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.

2016-12-01

Earth System models (ESMs) are effective tools for investigating the water-energy-food system interactions under climate change. In this presentation, I will introduce research efforts at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory towards quantifying impacts of LULCC on the water-energy-food nexus in a changing climate using an integrated regional Earth system modeling framework: the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA). Two studies will be discussed to showcase the capability of PRIMA: (1) quantifying changes in terrestrial hydrology over the Conterminous US (CONUS) from 2005 to 2095 using the Community Land Model (CLM) driven by high-resolution downscaled climate and land cover products from PRIMA, which was designed for assessing the impacts of and potential responses to climate and anthropogenic changes at regional scales; (2) applying CLM over the CONUS to provide the first county-scale model validation in simulating crop yields and assessing associated impacts on the water and energy budgets using CLM. The studies demonstrate the benefits of incorporating and coupling human activities into complex ESMs, and critical needs to account for the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of LULCC in climate impacts studies, and in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies at a scale meaningful for decision-making. Future directions in quantifying LULCC impacts on the water-energy-food nexus under a changing climate, as well as feedbacks among climate, energy production and consumption, and natural/managed ecosystems using an Integrated Multi-scale, Multi-sector Modeling framework will also be discussed.

Characterization of dissolved organic matter in a coral reef ecosystem subjected to anthropogenic pressures (La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean) using multi-dimensional fluorescence spectroscopy.

PubMed

Tedetti, Marc; Cuet, Pascale; Guigue, Catherine; Goutx, Madeleine

2011-05-01

La Saline fringing reef is the most important coral reef complex of La Réunion Island (southwestern Indian Ocean; 21°07'S, 55°32'E). This ecosystem is subjected to anthropogenic pressures through river inputs and submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). The goal of this study was to characterize the pool of fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) in different water bodies of La Saline fringing reef ecosystem using excitation-emission matrix (EEM) spectrofluorometry. From EEMs, we identified the different fluorophores by the peak picking technique and determined two fluorescence indices issued from the literature: the humification index (HIX) and the biological index (BIX). The main known fluorophores were present within the sample set: humic-like A, humic-like C, marine humic-like M, tryptophan-like T1 and T2, and tyrosine-like B1 and B2. In some samples, unknown fluorophores ("U") were also detected. The surface oceanic waters located beyond the reef front displayed a typical oligotrophic marine signature, with a dominance of autochthonous/biological material (presence of peaks: T1>B1>A>T2>M>C; HIX: 0.9±0.4; BIX: 2.3±1.1). In the reef waters, the autochthonous/biological fingerprint also dominated even though the content in humic substances was higher (same relative distribution of peaks; HIX: 1.6±0.6; BIX: 1.0±0.1). Sedimentary and volcanic SGD showed very different patterns with a strong terrestrial source for the former (A>T1>C>B1 and A>C>B1; HIX: 9.8±2.0; BIX: 0.8±0.0) and a weak terrestrial source for the latter (A>B1>U3>B2>C and A>U4>C; HIX: 2.4±0.3; BIX: 0.9±0.0). In the Hermitage River, both humic substances and protein-like material were abundant (T1>A>U5>B1>C>B2; HIX: 2.3; BIX: 1.4). We provide evidences for the presence of anthropogenic DOM in some of these water bodies. Some oceanic samples (presence of peaks U1 and U2) were likely contaminated by oil-derived PAHs from ships navigating around the reef front, whereas the Hermitage River was highly impacted by sewage effluents, numerous in this coastal area of La Réunion Island. We conclude that multi-dimensional fluorescence spectroscopy (EEM) coupled to the determination of HIX and BIX is a good tool for assessing the origin and distribution of DOM in the coral reef ecosystems submitted to anthropogenic impacts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Paleoclimate Uncertainty Cascade: Tracking Proxy Errors Via Proxy System Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Dee, S. G.; Evans, M. N.; Adkins, J. F.

2014-12-01

Paleoclimatic observations are, by nature, imperfect recorders of climate variables. Empirical approaches to their calibration are challenged by the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty, which may confound the interpretation of signals and the identifiability of the noise. In this talk, I will demonstrate the utility of proxy system models (PSMs, Evans et al, 2013, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024) to quantify the impact of all known sources of uncertainty. PSMs explicitly encode the mechanistic knowledge of the physical, chemical, biological and geological processes from which paleoclimatic observations arise. PSMs may be divided into sensor, archive and observation components, all of which may conspire to obscure climate signals in actual paleo-observations. As an example, we couple a PSM for the δ18O of speleothem calcite to an isotope-enabled climate model (Dee et al, submitted) to analyze the potential of this measurement as a proxy for precipitation amount. A simple soil/karst model (Partin et al, 2013, 10.1130/G34718.1) is used as sensor model, while a hiatus-permitting chronological model (Haslett & Parnell, 2008, 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2008.00623.x) is used as part of the observation model. This subdivision allows us to explicitly model the transformation from precipitation amount to speleothem calcite δ18O as a multi-stage process via a physical and chemical sensor model, and a stochastic archive model. By illustrating the PSM's behavior within the context of the climate simulations, we show how estimates of climate variability may be affected by each submodel's transformation of the signal. By specifying idealized climate signals(periodic vs. episodic, slow vs. fast) to the PSM, we investigate how frequency and amplitude patterns are modulated by sensor and archive submodels. To the extent that the PSM and the climate models are representative of real world processes, then the results may help us more accurately interpret existing paleodata, characterize their uncertainties, and design sampling strategies that exploit their strengths while mitigating their weaknesses.

The dendroclimatic proxies from the northern Quebec taiga in the PAGES 2K network: recent advances and future developments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gennaretti, Fabio; Naulier, Maud; Arseneault, Dominique; Savard, Martine; Bégin, Christian; Boucher, Etienne; Bégin, Yves; Guiot, Joël

2016-04-01

Northeastern North America was historically underrepresented in the network of climate proxies used for climate reconstructions over the last two millennia. Indeed, in North America most high-resolution climate proxies are long tree-ring chronologies but, in Northeastern North America, these chronologies are highly challenging due to short tree longevity, high frequency and severity of wildfires and remoteness of many areas. Here, we will present the efforts accomplished during the last decade by our team in developing millennial-long tree-ring chronologies in the northern Quebec taiga. We sampled black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P] subfossil tree remains naturally fallen in the littoral zone of six lakes to build six site-specific ring-width chronologies as well as two chronologies of stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C in tree-ring cellulose). These chronologies, which are now included in the PAGES 2K network, were independently used to reconstruct summer temperature variations showing a well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly and the impact of volcanic and solar forcings at regional scale. We will also discuss non-climatic influences on these chronologies (i.e. wildfires and sampling height inconsistency), as well as the ongoing effort to extend the reconstructions in time to cover the last 2500 years. Finally, a new European funded project called MAIDEN-SPRUCE will be introduced. Within MAIDEN-SPRUCE, we will use a data-model approach to improve our understanding of the links between forests and climate over the last millennium. More specifically, we will adapt the process-based ecophysiological model MAIDENiso to investigate factors influencing the growth and underlying biogeochemical processes of black spruce. One of our objectives is to provide the first multi-proxy (ring widths and δ18O and δ13C in tree-ring cellulose) regional climate reconstruction in Eastern North America over the last millennium taking into account mechanistic rules, including nonlinear or threshold relationships.

Assessing the utility of elemental ratios as a paleotemperature proxy in shells of patelloid limpets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graniero, Lauren; Surge, Donna; Gillikin, David

2015-04-01

Archaeological shell and fish middens are rich sources of paleoenvironmental proxy data. Carbonate hard part remains contained in such deposits have been used as archives of coastal marine climate and human-climate interactions. Oxygen isotope records from fast-growing limpet shells potentially capture summer and winter seasons, and thus, approach the full seasonal range of sea surface temperature (SST). Fast-growing shells are often short-lived, providing "snap-shots" of multi-year seasonal cycles. Patelloid limpet shells are common constituents in archaeological middens found along European, African, and South American coastlines. Oxygen isotope ratios of archaeological limpet shells from the genus, Patella, have been used to reconstruct seasonal SST and ocean circulation patterns during the Late Quaternary. Such studies depend on the ability to constrain the oxygen isotope ratio of seawater; therefore, alternative proxies are necessary for coastal localities where this is not possible. Elemental ratios (e.g., Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca) have been used as paleotemperature proxies in corals and foraminifera with varying degrees of success and appear problematic in bivalves. Here, we test whether such elemental ratios are useful as an alternative SST proxy in patelloid limpet shells.

Multi-timescale data assimilation for atmosphere–ocean state estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steiger, Nathan; Hakim, Gregory

2016-06-24

Paleoclimate proxy data span seasonal to millennial timescales, and Earth's climate system has both high- and low-frequency components. Yet it is currently unclear how best to incorporate multiple timescales of proxy data into a single reconstruction framework and to also capture both high- and low-frequency components of reconstructed variables. Here we present a data assimilation approach that can explicitly incorporate proxy data at arbitrary timescales. The principal advantage of using such an approach is that it allows much more proxy data to inform a climate reconstruction, though there can be additional benefits. Through a series of offline data-assimilation-based pseudoproxy experiments,more » we find that atmosphere–ocean states are most skillfully reconstructed by incorporating proxies across multiple timescales compared to using proxies at short (annual) or long (~ decadal) timescales alone. Additionally, reconstructions that incorporate long-timescale pseudoproxies improve the low-frequency components of the reconstructions relative to using only high-resolution pseudoproxies. We argue that this is because time averaging high-resolution observations improves their covariance relationship with the slowly varying components of the coupled-climate system, which the data assimilation algorithm can exploit. These results are consistent across the climate models considered, despite the model variables having very different spectral characteristics. Furthermore, our results also suggest that it may be possible to reconstruct features of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation based on atmospheric surface temperature proxies, though here we find such reconstructions lack spectral power over a broad range of frequencies.« less

Selection of Stream Insect Larvae for Indicating Anthropogenic Impact

EPA Science Inventory

This study examined the total mercury concentrations, [Hg], and 15N values in macro-invertebrates collected from 35 stream sites in Rhode Island, USA, to determine the organism groups most suitable for use as indicators of anthropogenic impact. Site selection was designed to cov...

Assessment of Blue Carbon Storage by Baja California (Mexico) Tidal Wetlands and Evidence for Wetland Stability in the Face of Anthropogenic and Climatic Impacts

PubMed Central

Watson, Elizabeth Burke

2017-01-01

Although saline tidal wetlands cover less than a fraction of one percent of the earth’s surface (~0.01%), they efficiently sequester organic carbon due to high rates of primary production coupled with surfaces that aggrade in response to sea level rise. Here, we report on multi-decadal changes (1972–2008) in the extent of tidal marshes and mangroves, and characterize soil carbon density and source, for five regions of tidal wetlands located on Baja California’s Pacific coast. Land-cover change analysis indicates the stability of tidal wetlands relative to anthropogenic and climate change impacts over the past four decades, with most changes resulting from natural coastal processes that are unique to arid environments. The disturbance of wetland soils in this region (to a depth of 50 cm) would liberate 2.55 Tg of organic carbon (C) or 9.36 Tg CO2eq. Based on stoichiometry and carbon stable isotope ratios, the source of organic carbon in these wetland sediments is derived from a combination of wetland macrophyte, algal, and phytoplankton sources. The reconstruction of natural wetland dynamics in Baja California provides a counterpoint to the history of wetland destruction elsewhere in North America, and measurements provide new insights on the control of carbon sequestration in arid wetlands. PMID:29295540

Assessment of long-term WRF–CMAQ simulations for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Long-term simulations with the coupled WRF–CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting–Community Multi-scale Air Quality) model have been conducted to systematically investigate the changes in anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx over the past 16 years (1995–2010) across the United States (US), their impacts on anthropogenic aerosol loading over North America, and subsequent impacts on regional radiation budgets. In particular, this study attempts to determine the consequences of the changes in tropospheric aerosol burden arising from substantial reductions in emissions of SO2 and NOx associated with control measures under the Clean Air Act (CAA) especially on trends in solar radiation. Extensive analyses conducted by Gan et al. (2014a) utilizing observations (e.g., SURFRAD, CASTNET, IMPROVE, and ARM) over the past 16 years (1995–2010) indicate a shortwave (SW) radiation (both all-sky and clear-sky) "brightening" in the US. The relationship of the radiation brightening trend with decreases in the aerosol burden is less apparent in the western US. One of the main reasons for this is that the emission controls under the CAA were aimed primarily at reducing pollutants in areas violating national air quality standards, most of which were located in the eastern US, while the relatively less populated areas in the western US were less polluted at the beginning of this study period. Comparisons of model results with observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD), aer

Atmospheric pollution history at Linfen (China) uncovered by magnetic and chemical parameters of sediments from a water reservoir.

PubMed

Ma, Mingming; Hu, Shouyun; Cao, Liwan; Appel, Erwin; Wang, Longsheng

2015-09-01

We studied magnetic and chemical parameters of sediments from sediments of a water reservoir at Linfen (China) in order to quantitatively reconstruct the atmospheric pollution history in this region. The results show that the main magnetic phases are magnetite and maghemite originating from the surrounding catchment and from anthropogenic activities, and there is a significant positive relationship between magnetic concentration parameters and heavy metals concentrations, indicating that magnetic proxies can be used to monitor the anthropogenic pollution. In order to uncover the atmospheric pollution history, we combined the known events of environmental improvement with variations of magnetic susceptibility (χ) and heavy metals along the cores to obtain a detailed chronological framework. In addition, air comprehensive pollution index (ACPI) was reconstructed from regression equation among magnetic and chemical parameters as well as atmospheric monitoring data. Based on these results, the atmospheric pollution history was successfully reconstructed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bidding Behavior in a Multi-attribute First-price Auction

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

of applying key features of the multi-unit auction to proxy buyer /seller marginal valuations of the attributes of a job. Two experiments were...compensation package show promise in ascertaining buyer /seller marginal valuations of a job. This research effort was supported by a grant from the...auctions observed in the goods market, as measured by maximizing consumer and producer surplus, are likely to have promising applications to labor markets

Is Recent Warming Unprecedented in the Common Era? Insights from PAGES2k data and the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erb, M. P.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Hakim, G. J.; Steig, E. J.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Paleoclimate observations provide a critical context for 20th century warming by putting recent climate change into a longer-term perspective. Previous work (e.g. IPCC AR3-5) has claimed that recent decades are exceptional in the context of past centuries, though these statements are usually accompanied by large uncertainties and little spatial detail. Here we leverage a recent multiproxy compilation (PAGES2k Consortium, 2017) to revisit this long-standing question. We do so via two complementary approaches. The first approach compares multi-decadal averages and trends in PAGES2k proxy records, which include trees, corals, ice cores, and more. Numerous proxy records reveal that late 20th century values are extreme compared to the remainder of the recorded period, although considerable variability exists in the signals preserved in individual records. The second approach uses the same PAGES2k data blended with climate model output to produce an optimal analysis: the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR; Hakim et al., 2016). Unlike proxy data, LMR is spatially-complete and explicitly models uncertainty in proxy records, resulting in objective error estimates. The LMR results show that for nearly every region of the world, late 20th century temperatures exceed temperatures in previous multi-decadal periods during the Common Era, and 20th century warming rates exceed rates in previous centuries. An uncertainty with the present analyses concerns the interpretation of proxy records. PAGES2k included only records that are primarily sensitive to temperature, but many proxies may be influenced by secondary non-temperature effects. Additionally, the issue of seasonality is important as, for example, many temperature-sensitive tree ring chronologies in the Northern Hemisphere respond to summer or growing season temperature rather than annual-means. These uncertainties will be further explored. References Hakim, G. J., et al., 2016: The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(12), 6745-6764. http://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024751 PAGES2k Consortium, 2017: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Scientific Data, 1-33. http://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88

Polychaete/amphipod ratio as an indicator of environmental impact related to offshore oil and gas production along the Norwegian continental shelf.

PubMed

Andrade, Hector; Renaud, Paul E

2011-12-01

Benthic faunal data is regularly collected worldwide to assess the ecological quality of marine environments. Recently, there has been renewed interest in developing biological indices able to identify environmental status and potential anthropogenic impacts. In this paper we evaluate the performance of a general polychaete/amphipod ratio along the Norwegian continental shelf as an environmental indicator for offshore oil and gas impacts. Two main trends are apparent: first, a contamination gradient is discernible from where production takes place compared to stations 10,000 m away. Second, the quality of the marine environment has improved over time. These results are consistent with monitoring reports employing a combination of uni- and multi-variate statistics. Thus, we consider this ratio as a relatively simple, useful and potentially cost-effective complement to other more demanding assessment techniques. Because of its strong theoretical basis, it may also be useful for detecting ecological change as a result of other activities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Classification of riparian forest species and health condition using multi-temporal and hyperspatial imagery from unmanned aerial system.

PubMed

Michez, Adrien; Piégay, Hervé; Lisein, Jonathan; Claessens, Hugues; Lejeune, Philippe

2016-03-01

Riparian forests are critically endangered many anthropogenic pressures and natural hazards. The importance of riparian zones has been acknowledged by European Directives, involving multi-scale monitoring. The use of this very-high-resolution and hyperspatial imagery in a multi-temporal approach is an emerging topic. The trend is reinforced by the recent and rapid growth of the use of the unmanned aerial system (UAS), which has prompted the development of innovative methodology. Our study proposes a methodological framework to explore how a set of multi-temporal images acquired during a vegetative period can differentiate some of the deciduous riparian forest species and their health conditions. More specifically, the developed approach intends to identify, through a process of variable selection, which variables derived from UAS imagery and which scale of image analysis are the most relevant to our objectives.The methodological framework is applied to two study sites to describe the riparian forest through two fundamental characteristics: the species composition and the health condition. These characteristics were selected not only because of their use as proxies for the riparian zone ecological integrity but also because of their use for river management.The comparison of various scales of image analysis identified the smallest object-based image analysis (OBIA) objects (ca. 1 m(2)) as the most relevant scale. Variables derived from spectral information (bands ratios) were identified as the most appropriate, followed by variables related to the vertical structure of the forest. Classification results show good overall accuracies for the species composition of the riparian forest (five classes, 79.5 and 84.1% for site 1 and site 2). The classification scenario regarding the health condition of the black alders of the site 1 performed the best (90.6%).The quality of the classification models developed with a UAS-based, cost-effective, and semi-automatic approach competes successfully with those developed using more expensive imagery, such as multi-spectral and hyperspectral airborne imagery. The high overall accuracy results obtained by the classification of the diseased alders open the door to applications dedicated to monitoring of the health conditions of riparian forest. Our methodological framework will allow UAS users to manage large imagery metric datasets derived from those dense time series.

Constraining the instantaneous aerosol influence on cloud albedo

DOE PAGES

Gryspeerdt, Edward; Quaas, Johannes; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; ...

2017-04-26

Much of the uncertainty in estimates of the anthropogenic forcing of climate change comes from uncertainties in the instantaneous effect of aerosols on cloud albedo, known as the Twomey effect or the radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci), a component of the total or effective radiative forcing. Because aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration ( N d), previous studies have used the sensitivity of the N d to aerosol properties as a constraint on the strength of the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that relationships between aerosol andmore » cloud properties in the present-day climate may not be suitable for determining the sensitivity of the N d to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. Using an ensemble of global aerosol–climate models, this study demonstrates how joint histograms between N d and aerosol properties can account for many of the issues raised by previous studies. It shows that if the anthropogenic contribution to the aerosol is known, the RFaci can be diagnosed to within 20% of its actual value. Furthermore, the accuracy of different aerosol proxies for diagnosing the RFaci is investigated, confirming that using the aerosol optical depth significantly underestimates the strength of the aerosol–cloud interactions in satellite data.« less

Constraining the instantaneous aerosol influence on cloud albedo

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gryspeerdt, Edward; Quaas, Johannes; Ferrachat, Sylvaine

Much of the uncertainty in estimates of the anthropogenic forcing of climate change comes from uncertainties in the instantaneous effect of aerosols on cloud albedo, known as the Twomey effect or the radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci), a component of the total or effective radiative forcing. Because aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration ( N d), previous studies have used the sensitivity of the N d to aerosol properties as a constraint on the strength of the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that relationships between aerosol andmore » cloud properties in the present-day climate may not be suitable for determining the sensitivity of the N d to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. Using an ensemble of global aerosol–climate models, this study demonstrates how joint histograms between N d and aerosol properties can account for many of the issues raised by previous studies. It shows that if the anthropogenic contribution to the aerosol is known, the RFaci can be diagnosed to within 20% of its actual value. Furthermore, the accuracy of different aerosol proxies for diagnosing the RFaci is investigated, confirming that using the aerosol optical depth significantly underestimates the strength of the aerosol–cloud interactions in satellite data.« less

Constraining the instantaneous aerosol influence on cloud albedo

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gryspeerdt, Edward; Quaas, Johannes; Ferrachat, Sylvaine

2017-04-26

Much of the uncertainty in estimates of the anthropogenic forcing of climate change comes from uncertainties in the instantaneous effect of aerosols on cloud albedo, known as the Twomey effect or the radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci), a component of the total or effective radiative forcing. Because aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), previous studies have used the sensitivity of the Nd to aerosol properties as a constraint on the strength of the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that relationships between aerosol and cloud properties inmore » the present-day climate may not be suitable for determining the sensitivity of the Nd to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. Using an ensemble of global aerosol–climate models, this study demonstrates how joint histograms between Nd and aerosol properties can account for many of the issues raised by previous studies. It shows that if the anthropogenic contribution to the aerosol is known, the RFaci can be diagnosed to within 20% of its actual value. The accuracy of different aerosol proxies for diagnosing the RFaci is investigated, confirming that using the aerosol optical depth significantly underestimates the strength of the aerosol–cloud interactions in satellite data.« less

Constraining the instantaneous aerosol influence on cloud albedo.

PubMed

Gryspeerdt, Edward; Quaas, Johannes; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Gettelman, Andrew; Ghan, Steven; Lohmann, Ulrike; Morrison, Hugh; Neubauer, David; Partridge, Daniel G; Stier, Philip; Takemura, Toshihiko; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai

2017-05-09

Much of the uncertainty in estimates of the anthropogenic forcing of climate change comes from uncertainties in the instantaneous effect of aerosols on cloud albedo, known as the Twomey effect or the radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (RFaci), a component of the total or effective radiative forcing. Because aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ), previous studies have used the sensitivity of the N d to aerosol properties as a constraint on the strength of the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that relationships between aerosol and cloud properties in the present-day climate may not be suitable for determining the sensitivity of the N d to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. Using an ensemble of global aerosol-climate models, this study demonstrates how joint histograms between N d and aerosol properties can account for many of the issues raised by previous studies. It shows that if the anthropogenic contribution to the aerosol is known, the RFaci can be diagnosed to within 20% of its actual value. The accuracy of different aerosol proxies for diagnosing the RFaci is investigated, confirming that using the aerosol optical depth significantly underestimates the strength of the aerosol-cloud interactions in satellite data.

Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C.-F.

2018-01-01

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

Application of Lacustrine Biomarkers to Reconstruct Late Holocene Temperature Change in the Saskatchewan Prairies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavazzin, B.; Toney, J. L.; Pearson, E. J.; Schouten, S.; Leavitt, P.; Haig, H.

2016-12-01

Extreme hydrological events such as prolonged droughts are among Canada's costliest natural calamities resulting in disastrous impacts on agriculture, forestry, industry, and ecosystems. Investigations into climate variations prior to significant anthropogenic modification are essential to build effective projection models and adaptation strategies needed to reduce economic, social and environmental vulnerability within the prairies eco-region. In this study we use organic geochemical analysis of lipids produced by bacteria, archaea and algae in lake and catchment sediments. These organic compounds are highly resistant to degradation and accumulate in the sediments as geochemical fossils or biomarkers. In particular we focus on Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers (GDGT) biomarkers which are ubiquitous in soils and lacustrine environments and can be applied as quantitative temperature proxies in regions of the world where other proxies cannot be used. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between GDGT distribution and temperature and assess the potential for establishing a GDGT-based paleothermometer for the Canadian prairies lakes. Our training set includes GDGT data from core-top sediments from 105 lakes across spanning a 5° latitudinal gradient and spring surface water temperature gradient of about 9°C. We identified 30 known bacterial and archaeal GDGTs, including the novel archaeal tetraether lipids with a cyclohexyl ring. These compounds are present in varying proportions in all the lakes investigated, suggesting a broad range of GDGT inputs and also potential in-situ production. We analysed the relationships between individual GDGT compounds against temperature, pH, conductivity, water depth and other environmental variables. We also examined previously published GDGT-environment indices in order to test the applicability of previously developed GDGT-based paleotemperature calibrations to the prairies lakes and assess whether a new calibration is needed specifically for this region.

Estimation of Anthropogenic Heat Emissions in Delhi, India and Their Role in Urban Heat Island Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhati, S.; Mohan, M.

2016-12-01

Energy consumption in the urban environment impacts the urban surface energy budget and leads to the emission of anthropogenic sensible heat into the atmosphere. Anthropogenic heat (AH) can vary both in time and space, and are not readily measured. In present study, anthropogenic heat emissions have been estimated using an inventory approach for Delhi. The main sources that have been considered are electricity consumption, vehicular emissions, fuel consumption in domestic sector and waste heat from power plants. Total estimated anthropogenic heat is apportioned gridwise (2 km2) and incorporated in the WRF (version 3.5) model coupled with single-layer Urban canopy model (UCM) to assess the impact of these emissions on urban heat island effect in Delhi. Vehicular emissions have been found to be highest contributor to anthropogenic heat emissions (47%) followed by electricity consumption (28%), domestic fuel consumption (16%) and waste heat from power plants (9%). Highest annual average anthropogenic heat flux was estimated to be 25.2 Wm-2. High flux zones are observed in east Delhi and densely occupied and commercial zones of Sitaram Bazar and Connaught Place. Inclusion of anthropogenic heat emissions in the model improves model performance for near surface temperature as well as urban heat island intensities. Maximum simulated night-time UHI improves from 5.95°C (without AH) to 6.24°C (with AH) against observed value of 6.68°C, thereby indicating positive contribution of anthropogenic heat emissions along with urban canopy towards UHI effect in Delhi. Similarly, spatial distribution and UHI hotspots are found to be comparatively closer to corresponding observed distribution and hotspots with anthropogenic heat emissions being added to the WRF model. Overall, relatively improved model performance is indicative of the impact of anthropogenic heat emissions in local urban meteorology and urban heat island effect in Delhi. Hence, rising population and change in land use-cover and associated anthropogenic activities call for strategic mitigation measures in the city to prevent further strengthening of heat island effect.

Six centuries of anthropogenic forest change on a Polynesian high island: Archaeological charcoal records from the Marquesas Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huebert, Jennifer M.; Allen, Melinda S.

2016-04-01

It is widely recognised that Polynesian settlers developed central Pacific islands into productive economic landscapes, but the character and tempo of these transformations are poorly understood. Archaeological wood charcoal assemblages are uniquely suited to inform on landscape change, especially when the principal food crops were arboreal. We use a large archaeological charcoal collection, drawn from numerous geographically and functionally varied contexts, to develop a multi-scalar vegetation history of Marquesas Islands' lowland forests. Our aims were to: 1) reveal historical patterns of plant biogeography, including introductions by Polynesian settlers; 2) detail the nature and timing of anthropogenic impacts on native Marquesan forests; and 3) track the emergence of economically productive arboreal landscapes. A collection of 6510 fragments identified to 59 taxa inform on a ∼600-year sequence of human activities. The earliest samples indicate rich forests were encountered by human colonists, comprised of a mix of dicotyledonous hardwood species and woody monocots. These included members of two now-extinct Sapotaceae genera, Planchonella and cf. Sideroxylon, along with Allophylus, a Sapindaceae apparently extirpated from Nuku Hiva. Two important coastal trees, Calophyllum inophyllum and Thespesia populnea, also appear to be indigenous. Polynesian impacts were rapid and widespread, irrevocably altering the indigenous vegetation and disrupting native ecosystems. Samples from later occupations document on-going modifications to lowland vegetation communities. This included inter-valley variability in the timing of transformations and the development of mosaic formations, comprised of native forest interspersed with areas of cultivation and habitation. By 1650 CE, low and mid-elevation vegetation was extensively remodelled, as anthropogenic forests of Artocarpus altilis (breadfruit), Inocarpus fagifer (Tahitian chestnut), and other economic species became widely established and cultivation intensified. Mimicking natural forests, these arboricultural systems helped protect the island's fragile soils and landscapes from recurring climate extremes. Intriguingly, some translocated taxa, including Tahitian chestnut, Casuarina equisetifolia (ironwood), and Morinda citrifolia (Indian mulberry), may have been post-settlement introductions. This analysis demonstrates the potential of archaeological wood charcoal assemblages to inform on Pacific Island vegetation histories, anthropogenic processes, and the evolution of arboricultural economies.

Challenges for present and future estimates of anthropogenic carbon in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goyet, C.; Touratier, F.

One of the main challenges we face today is to determine the evolution of the penetration of anthropogenic CO2 into the Indian Ocean and its impacts on marine and human life. Anthropogenic CO2 reaches the ocean via air-sea interactions as well as riverine inputs. It is then stored in the ocean and follows the oceanic circulation. As the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere penetrates into the sea, it reacts with water and acidifies the ocean. Consequently, the whole marine ecosystem is perturbed, thus potentially affecting the food web, which has, in turn, a direct impact on seafood supply for humans. Naturally, this will mainly affect the growing number of people living in coastal areas. Although anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean is identical with natural CO2 and therefore cannot be detected alone, many approaches are available today to estimate it. Since most of the results of these methods are globally in agreement, here we chose one of these methods, the tracer using oxygen, total inorganic carbon, and total alkalinity (TrOCA) approach, to compute the 3-D distribution of the anthropogenic CO2 concentrations throughout the Indian Ocean. The results of this distribution clearly illustrate the contrast between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. They further show the importance of the southern part of this ocean that carries some anthropogenic CO2 at great depths. In order to determine the future anthropogenic impacts on the Indian Ocean, it is urgent and necessary to understand the present state. As the seawater temperature increases, how and how fast will the ocean circulation change? What will the impacts on seawater properties be? Many people are living on the bordering coasts, how will they be affected?

Continental-Scale Temperature Reconstructions from the PAGES 2k Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, D. S.

2012-12-01

We present a major new synthesis of seven regional temperature reconstructions to elucidate the global pattern of variations and their association with climate-forcing mechanisms over the past two millennia. To coordinate the integration of new and existing data of all proxy types, the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project developed the 2k Network. It comprises nine working groups representing eight continental-scale regions and the oceans. The PAGES 2k Consortium, authoring this paper, presently includes 79 representatives from 25 countries. For this synthesis, each of the PAGES 2k working groups identified the proxy climate records for reconstructing past temperature and associated uncertainty using the data and methodologies that they deemed most appropriate for their region. The datasets are from 973 sites where tree rings, pollen, corals, lake and marine sediment, glacier ice, speleothems, and historical documents record changes in biologically and physically mediated processes that are sensitive to temperature change, among other climatic factors. The proxy records used for this synthesis are available through the NOAA World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. On long time scales, the temperature reconstructions display similarities among regions, and a large part of this common behavior can be explained by known climate forcings. Reconstructed temperatures in all regions show an overall long-term cooling trend until around 1900 C.E., followed by strong warming during the 20th century. On the multi-decadal time scale, we assessed the variability among the temperature reconstructions using principal component (PC) analysis of the standardized decadal mean temperatures over the period of overlap among the reconstructions (1200 to 1980 C.E.). PC1 explains 35% of the total variability and is strongly correlated with temperature reconstructions from the four Northern Hemisphere regions, and with the sum of external forcings including solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gases. PC2 captures 18% of the variability and is correlated most strongly with the Southern Hemisphere regions of Australasia and South America. PC3 captures 15% of the variability in the temperature reconstructions with a predominant loading from Antarctica. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades (10th percentiles) in each region were analyzed and compared with climate forcings. Only 22% of the regionally coldest decades can be ascribed to extreme minima in solar forcing, and 17% to volcanic forcing. The association between extremely warm regional temperatures and solar maxima is weaker than for cold temperatures and their corresponding solar minima. Spatially, volcanic forcing moderately increased the frequency of extremely cold decades in the Northern Hemisphere reconstructions, but had no significant effect in the Southern Hemisphere. Solar and volcanic impacts do not induce globally consistent decadal temperature shifts, but they increase the probability of cooling or warming at the continental scale. The majority of cold and warm decades identified here cannot be explained by changes in the records of volcanic activity or solar forcing. This indicates that at this timescale, prior to the anthropogenic buildup of greenhouse gases, unforced internal variability in the coupled ocean/atmosphere system was the dominant control on temperature variation.

Hazard Interactions and Interaction Networks (Cascades) within Multi-Hazard Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-04-01

Here we combine research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between 'multi-layer single hazard' approaches and 'multi-hazard' approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. We proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework, through the following steps: (i) describe and define three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment; (ii) outline three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance); and (iii) assess the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case-study examples (based on literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential, and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

Evaluation of the multi-model CORDEX-Africa hindcast using RCMES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lean, P.; Mattmann, C. A.; Goodale, C. E.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Hewitson, B.; Jones, C.

2011-12-01

Recent global climate change studies have concluded with a high confidence level that the observed increasing trend in the global-mean surface air temperatures since mid-20th century is triggered by the emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). The increase in the global-mean temperature due to anthropogenic emissions is nearly monotonic and may alter the climatological norms resulting in a new climate normal. In the presence of anthropogenic climate change, assessing regional impacts of the altered climate state and developing the plans for mitigating any adverse impacts are an important concern. Assessing future climate state and its impact remains a difficult task largely because of the uncertainties in future emissions and model errors. Uncertainties in climate projections propagates into impact assessment models and result in uncertainties in the impact assessments. In order to facilitate the evaluation of model data, a fundamental step for assessing model errors, the JPL Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES: Lean et al. 2010; Hart et al. 2011) has been developed through a joint effort of the investigators from UCLA and JPL. RCMES is also a regional climate component of a larger worldwide ExArch project. We will present the evaluation of the surface temperatures and precipitation from multiple RCMs participating in the African component of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) that has organized a suite of regional climate projection experiments in which multiple RCMs and GCMs are incorporated. As a part of the project, CORDEX organized a 20-year regional climate hindcast study in order to quantify and understand the uncertainties originating from model errors. Investigators from JPL, UCLA, and the CORDEX-Africa team collaborate to analyze the RCM hindcast data using RCMES. The analysis is focused on measuring the closeness between individual regional climate model outputs as well as their ensembles and observed data. The model evaluation is quantified in terms of widely used metrics. Details on the conceptual outline and architecture of RCMES is presented in two companion papers "The Regional climate model Evaluation System (RCMES) based on contemporary satellite and other observations for assessing regional climate model fidelity" and "A Reusable Framework for Regional Climate Model Evaluation" in GC07 and IN30, respectively.

Pleistocene climate change inferred from multi-proxy analyses of a loess-paleosol sequence in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yi; Qiu, Shifan; Fu, Shuqing; Rao, Zhiguo; Zhu, Zhaoyu

2018-04-01

The aeolian loess blanketing the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is sensitive to climate change in monsoonal East Asia. Here, we present a multi-proxy climatic record from a Pleistocene loess-paleosol sequence from the Lantian Basin on the southern margin of the CLP. The measurements include magnetic susceptibility and related magnetic properties, bulk median grain-size, color reflectance, and the color-inferred hematite versus goethite ratio (Hm/Gt). A long-term aridification and cooling trend during the interval from ca 2.22-0.43 Ma is indicated by two magnetic grain-size proxies, corresponding to the global climatic cooling of the late Cenozoic. In addition, at least four intervals of climatic extremes are evident in the record of Hm/Gt ratio: at 1.71-1.65 Ma, 1.26-1.24 Ma, 0.94-0.86 Ma, and 0.62-0.48 Ma. These intervals are characterized by distinct regional climates, which contrast with the global climatic conditions represented in marine sediments. For example, a relatively arid climate is documented from 1.71 to 1.65 Ma, which was rapidly succeeded by a relatively humid climate which is associated with the earliest hominin (with an age of ca 1.63 Ma) in the Lantian Basin.

The Last Millennium Reanalysis: Improvements to proxies and proxy modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tardif, R.; Hakim, G. J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Noone, D.; Anderson, D. M.

2017-12-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) approach to produce climate field reconstructions (CFRs). Here, we focus on two key factors in PDA generated CFRs: the set of assimilated proxy records and forward models (FMs) used to estimate proxies from climate model output. In the initial configuration of the LMR [Hakim et al., 2016], the proxy dataset of [PAGES2k Consortium, 2013] was used, along with univariate linear FMs calibrated against annually-averaged 20th century temperature datasets. In an updated configuration, proxy records from the recent dataset [PAGES2k Consortium, 2017] are used, while a hierarchy of statistical FMs are tested: (1) univariate calibrated on annual temperature as in the initial configuration, (2) univariate against temperature as in (1) but calibration performed using expert-derived seasonality for individual proxy records, (3) as in (2) but expert proxy seasonality replaced by seasonal averaging determined objectively as part of the calibration process, (4) linear objective seasonal FMs as in (3) but objectively selecting relationships calibrated either on temperature or precipitation, and (5) bivariate linear models calibrated on temperature and precipitation with objectively-derived seasonality. (4) and (5) specifically aim at better representing the physical drivers of tree ring width proxies. Reconstructions generated using the CCSM4 Last Millennium simulation as an uninformed prior are evaluated against various 20th century data products. Results show the benefits of using the new proxy collection, particularly on the detrended global mean temperature and spatial patterns. The positive impact of using proper seasonality and temperature/moisture sensitivities for tree ring width records is also notable. This updated configuration will be used for the first generation of LMR-generated CFRs to be publicly released. These also provide a benchmark for future efforts aimed at evaluating the impact of additional proxy records and/or more sophisticated physically-based forward models. References: Hakim, G. J., and co-authors (2016), J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., doi:10.1002/2016JD024751 PAGES2K Consortium (2013), Nat. Geosci., doi:10.1038/ngeo1797 PAGES2k Consortium (2017), Sci. Data. doi:10.1038/sdata.2017.88

Quantifying Proxy Influence in the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, D. N.; Emile-Geay, J.; Noone, D.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

We examine the influence of proxies in the climate field reconstruction known as the Last Millennium Reanalysis (Hakim et al. 2016; JGR-A). This data assimilation framework uses the CCSM4 Last Millennium simulation as an agnostic prior, proxies from the PAGES 2k Consortium (2017; Sci. Data), and an offline ensemble square-root filter for assimilation. Proxies are forward modeled using an observation model ("proxy system model") that maps from the prior space to the proxy space. We assess proxy impact using the method of Cardinali et al. (2004; QJRMS), where influence is measured in observation space; that is, at the location of observations. Influence is determined by three components: the prior at the location, the proxy at the location, and remote proxies as mediated by the spatial covariance information in the prior. Consequently, on a per-proxy basis, influence is higher for spatially isolated proxies having small error, and influence is lower for spatially dense proxies having large error. Results show that proxy influence depends strongly on the observation model. Assuming the proxies depend linearly on annual mean temperature yields the largest per-proxy influence for coral d18O and coral Sr/Ca records, and smallest influence for tree-ring width. On a global basis (summing over all proxies of a given type), tree-ring width and coral d18O have the largest influence. A seasonal model for the proxies yields very different results. In this case we model the proxies linearly on objectively determined seasonal temperature, except for tree proxies, which are fit to a bivariate model on seasonal temperature and precipitation. In this experiment, on a per-proxy basis, tree-ring density has by far the greatest influence. Total proxy influence is dominated by tree-ring width followed by tree-ring density. Compared to the results for the annual-mean observation model, the experiment where proxies are measured seasonally has more than double the total influence (sum over all proxies); this experiment also has higher verification scores when measured against other 20th century temperature reconstructions. These results underscore the importance of improving proxy system models, since they increase the amount of information available for data-assimilation-based reconstructions.

Combining charcoal sediment and molecular markers to infer a Holocene fire history in the Maya lowlands of Petén, Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchgeorg, Torben; Schüpbach, Simon; Colombaroli, Daniele; Beffa, Giorgia; Radaelli, Marta; Kehrwald, Natalie; Barbante, Carlo

2015-04-01

Holocene vegetation changes in the Maya Lowlands during the Holocene are a result of changing climate conditions, solely anthropogenic activities, or interactions of both factors. As a consequence, it is difficult to assess how tropical ecosystems will cope with projected changes in precipitation and land-use intensification over the next decades. We investigated the role of fire during the Holocene by combining different proxies. We distinguished between three different morphotypes (grass, wood and leaves) in macroscopic charcoal. We also determined the molecular fire proxies levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan. Combining these different fire proxies allows a more robust understanding of the complex history of fire regimes at different spatial scales during the Holocene. Comparing the two biomass burning proxies may help increase our understanding about advantages and limitations of molecular markers as proxies for past fire reconstruction in lake sediments. In order to infer changes in past biomass burning, we analysed a lake sediment core from Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala (17°00'N, 89°50'W, 110 m above sea level), and compared our results with millennial-scale vegetation and climate change data available in this area. Some differences were observed between the two records and we assumed that while macroscopic charcoal represents a local fire signal, the molecular fire proxies records seem to be influenced by regional to supra-regional fire or low temperature fires. During the Holocene we detected three periods of high fire activity: 9500-6000 cal yr BP, 3800 cal yr BP and 2700 cal yr BP. We attributed the first maximum (9500-6000 cal yr BP) to only climate conditions, which corresponds with observations from previous studies in this region. The fast decrease in the relative abundance of woody charcoal to grass charcoal at the 3800 cal yr BP fire maximum may result from human activity, but we cannot exclude that this shift was related to climate conditions during this period. The last maximum (2700 cal yr BP) we attribute to the agricultural activity of the Maya at Lake Petén Itzá.

Comment on "Advective transport in heterogeneous aquifers: Are proxy models predictive?" by A. Fiori, A. Zarlenga, H. Gotovac, I. Jankovic, E. Volpi, V. Cvetkovic, and G. Dagan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuman, Shlomo P.

2016-07-01

Fiori et al. (2015) examine the predictive capabilities of (among others) two "proxy" non-Fickian transport models, MRMT (Multi-Rate Mass Transfer) and CTRW (Continuous-Time Random Walk). In particular, they compare proxy model predictions of mean breakthrough curves (BTCs) at a sequence of control planes with near-ergodic BTCs generated through two- and three-dimensional simulations of nonreactive, mean-uniform advective transport in single realizations of stationary, randomly heterogeneous porous media. The authors find fitted proxy model parameters to be nonunique and devoid of clear physical meaning. This notwithstanding, they conclude optimistically that "i. Fitting the proxy models to match the BTC at [one control plane] automatically ensures prediction at downstream control planes [and thus] ii. … the measured BTC can be used directly for prediction, with no need to use models underlain by fitting." I show that (a) the authors' findings follow directly from (and thus confirm) theoretical considerations discussed earlier by Neuman and Tartakovsky (2009), which (b) additionally demonstrate that proxy models will lack similar predictive capabilities under more realistic, non-Markovian flow and transport conditions that prevail under flow through nonstationary (e.g., multiscale) media in the presence of boundaries and/or nonuniformly distributed sources, and/or when flow/transport are conditioned on measurements.

Formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water during the Plio-Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karas, C.; Goldstein, S. L.; deMenocal, P. B.

2017-12-01

Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) plays a fundamental role in modern climate change. It is an important sink for anthropogenic CO2, it represents an important source water in several (sub)tropical upwelling regions and it is the coldwater route from the Southern Hemisphere to the North Atlantic Ocean replacing North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). During the last 4 million years, which marks the transition from the warm Pliocene climate towards icehouse conditions, the formation of this watermass is still largely unknown. We here present a multi-proxy approach using neodymium isotopes (ɛNd) on Fe-Mn encrusted foraminifera and coupled benthic Mg/Ca and stable isotopes from South Atlantic Site 516, within AAIW, to reconstruct its variability. Our data show that the modern formation of AAIW started about 3 million years ago, indicated by a distinct drop of ɛNd by 1.5, a cooling and freshening of benthic TMg/Ca by 8°C and a drop in benthic d13C values towards modern times. We interpret these changes as a reduced inflow of Pacific waters into the South Atlantic and the onset of modern deep vertical mixing at the source regions of AAIW near the polar front. These processes had significant effects on the CO2 storage of the ocean that supported global cooling and the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation.

Coral skeletal geochemistry as a monitor of inshore water quality.

PubMed

Saha, Narottam; Webb, Gregory E; Zhao, Jian-Xin

2016-10-01

Coral reefs maintain extraordinary biodiversity and provide protection from tsunamis and storm surge, but inshore coral reef health is degrading in many regions due to deteriorating water quality. Deconvolving natural and anthropogenic changes to water quality is hampered by the lack of long term, dated water quality data but such records are required for forward modelling of reef health to aid their management. Reef corals provide an excellent archive of high resolution geochemical (trace element) proxies that can span hundreds of years and potentially provide records used through the Holocene. Hence, geochemical proxies in corals hold great promise for understanding changes in ancient water quality that can inform broader oceanographic and climatic changes in a given region. This article reviews and highlights the use of coral-based trace metal archives, including metal transported from rivers to the ocean, incorporation of trace metals into coral skeletons and the current 'state of the art' in utilizing coral trace metal proxies as tools for monitoring various types of local and regional source-specific pollution (river discharge, land use changes, dredging and dumping, mining, oil spills, antifouling paints, atmospheric sources, sewage). The three most commonly used coral trace element proxies (i.e., Ba/Ca, Mn/Ca, and Y/Ca) are closely associated with river runoff in the Great Barrier Reef, but considerable uncertainty remains regarding their complex biogeochemical cycling and controlling mechanisms. However, coral-based water quality reconstructions have suffered from a lack of understanding of so-called vital effects and early marine diagenesis. The main challenge is to identify and eliminate the influence of extraneous local factors in order to allow accurate water quality reconstructions and to develop alternate proxies to monitor water pollution. Rare earth elements have great potential as they are self-referencing and reflect basic terrestrial input. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, D. A.; Angélil, O. M.; Cholia, S.; Christidis, N.; Dittus, A. J.; Folland, C. K.; King, A.; Kinter, J. L.; Krishnan, H.; Min, S. K.; Shiogama, H.; Wehner, M. F.; Wolski, P.

2015-12-01

Over the past decade there has been a remarkable growth in interest concerning the effects of anthropogenic emissions on extreme weather. However, research has been constrained by the lack of a public climate-model-based data product optimised for investigation of extreme weather in the context of climate change, relying instead on products designed for other purposes or on bespoke simulations designed for the particular study and not generally applicable to other extremes. The international Climate of the 20th Century Plus (C20C+) Detection and Attribution Project is filling this gap by producing the first large ensemble, multi-model, multi-year, and multi-scenario historical climate data product, specifically designed for resolving variations in the occurrence and characteristics of extreme weather from year to year and their differences from what might have been in the absence of anthropogenic emissions. Updates on project status and tens of terabytes of simulation output are available at http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c.Here we describe the experimental design of the first phase of the project, conducted with six atmospheric climate models, and discuss its various strengths and weaknesses with respect to various types of extreme weather. We also present analyses of the relative importance of climate model, estimate of anthropogenic ocean warming, spatial and temporal scale, and aspects of experimental design on estimates of how much emissions have affected extreme weather.

The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution.

PubMed

Silva, Raquel A; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M; West, J Jason

2016-11-01

Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration-response function for ozone and an integrated exposure-response model for PM2.5. We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally-675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year-and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution-related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA, Adelman Z, Fry MM, West JJ. 2016. The impact of individual anthropogenic emissions sectors on the global burden of human mortality due to ambient air pollution. Environ Health Perspect 124:1776-1784; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP177.

The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution

PubMed Central

Silva, Raquel A.; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M.; West, J. Jason

2016-01-01

Background: Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. Objectives: We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. Methods: We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration–response function for ozone and an integrated exposure–response model for PM2.5. Results: We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally—675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year—and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). Conclusions: The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution–related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA, Adelman Z, Fry MM, West JJ. 2016. The impact of individual anthropogenic emissions sectors on the global burden of human mortality due to ambient air pollution. Environ Health Perspect 124:1776–1784; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP177 PMID:27177206

Potential for tree rings to reveal spatial patterns of past drought variability across western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, Alison J.; Cook, Edward R.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Grierson, Pauline F.

2018-02-01

Proxy records have provided major insights into the variability of past climates over long timescales. However, for much of the Southern Hemisphere, the ability to identify spatial patterns of past climatic variability is constrained by the sparse distribution of proxy records. This is particularly true for mainland Australia, where relatively few proxy records are located. Here, we (1) assess the potential to use existing proxy records in the Australasian region—starting with the only two multi-century tree-ring proxies from mainland Australia—to reveal spatial patterns of past hydroclimatic variability across the western third of the continent, and (2) identify strategic locations to target for the development of new proxy records. We show that the two existing tree-ring records allow robust reconstructions of past hydroclimatic variability over spatially broad areas (i.e. > 3° × 3°) in inland north- and south-western Australia. Our results reveal synchronous periods of drought and wet conditions between the inland northern and southern regions of western Australia as well as a generally anti-phase relationship with hydroclimate in eastern Australia over the last two centuries. The inclusion of 174 tree-ring proxy records from Tasmania, New Zealand and Indonesia and a coral record from Queensland did not improve the reconstruction potential over western Australia. However, our findings suggest that the addition of relatively few new proxy records from key locations in western Australia that currently have low reconstruction skill will enable the development of a comprehensive drought atlas for the region, and provide a critical link to the drought atlases of monsoonal Asia and eastern Australia and New Zealand.

Multiscale modeling of multi-decadal trends in air pollutant concentrations and their radiative properties: the role of models in an integrated observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathur, R.; Xing, J.; Szykman, J.; Gan, C. M.; Hogrefe, C.; Pleim, J. E.

2015-12-01

Air Pollution simulation models must address the increasing complexity arising from new model applications that treat multi-pollutant interactions across varying space and time scales. Setting and attaining lower ambient air quality standards requires an improved understanding and quantification of source attribution amongst the multiple anthropogenic and natural sources, on time scales ranging from episodic to annual and spatial scales ranging from urban to continental. Changing emission patterns over the developing regions of the world are likely to exacerbate the impacts of long-range pollutant transport on background pollutant levels, which may then impact the attainment of local air quality standards. Thus, strategies for reduction of pollution levels of surface air over a region are complicated not only by the interplay of local emissions sources and several complex physical, chemical, dynamical processes in the atmosphere, but also hemispheric background levels of pollutants. Additionally, as short-lived climate forcers, aerosols and ozone exert regionally heterogeneous radiative forcing and influence regional climate trends. EPA's coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling system is applied over a domain encompassing the northern hemisphere for the period spanning 1990-2010. This period has witnessed significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions in North America and Europe as a result of implementation of control measures and dramatic increases across Asia associated with economic and population growth, resulting in contrasting trends in air pollutant distributions and transport patterns across the northern hemisphere. Model results (trends in pollutant concentrations, optical and radiative characteristics) across the northern hemisphere are analyzed in conjunction with surface, aloft and remote sensing measurements to contrast the differing trends in air pollution and aerosol-radiation interactions in these regions over the past two decades. Given the future LEO (TropOMI) and GEO (Sentinel-4, GEMS, and TEMPO) atmospheric chemistry satellite observing capabilities, the results from these model applications will be discussed in the context of how the new satellite observations could help constrain and reduce uncertainties in the models.

Massive land system changes impact water quality of the Jhelum River in Kashmir Himalaya.

PubMed

Rather, Mohmmad Irshad; Rashid, Irfan; Shahi, Nuzhat; Murtaza, Khalid Omar; Hassan, Khalida; Yousuf, Abdul Rehman; Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Shah, Irfan Yousuf

2016-03-01

The pristine aquatic ecosystems in the Himalayas are facing an ever increasing threat from various anthropogenic pressures which necessitate better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of pollutants, their sources, and possible remedies. This study demonstrates the multi-disciplinary approach utilizing the multivariate statistical techniques, data from remote sensing, lab, and field-based observations for assessing the impact of massive land system changes on water quality of the river Jhelum. Land system changes over a period of 38 years have been quantified using multi-spectral satellite data to delineate the extent of different anthropogenically driven land use types that are the main non-point sources of pollution. Fifteen water quality parameters, at 12 sampling sites distributed uniformly along the length of the Jhelum, have been assessed to identify the possible sources of pollution. Our analysis indicated that 18% of the forested area has degraded into sparse forest or scrublands from 1972 to 2010, and the areas under croplands have decreased by 24% as people shifted from irrigation-intensive agriculture to orchard farming while as settlements showed a 397% increase during the observation period. One-way ANOVA revealed that all the water quality parameters had significant spatio-temporal differences (p < 0.01). Cluster analysis (CA) helped us to classify all the sampling sites into three groups. Factor analysis revealed that 91.84% of the total variance was mainly explained by five factors. Drastic changes in water quality of the Jhelum since the past three decades are manifested by increases in nitrate-nitrogen, TDS, and electric conductivity. The especially high levels of nitrogen (858 ± 405 μgL(-1)) and phosphorus (273 ± 18 μgL(-1)) in the Jhelum could be attributed to the reckless application of fertilizers, pesticides, and unplanned urbanization in the area.

Invited review: Large-scale indirect measurements for enteric methane emissions in dairy cattle: A review of proxies and their potential for use in management and breeding decisions.

PubMed

Negussie, E; de Haas, Y; Dehareng, F; Dewhurst, R J; Dijkstra, J; Gengler, N; Morgavi, D P; Soyeurt, H; van Gastelen, S; Yan, T; Biscarini, F

2017-04-01

Efforts to reduce the carbon footprint of milk production through selection and management of low-emitting cows require accurate and large-scale measurements of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from individual cows. Several techniques have been developed to measure CH 4 in a research setting but most are not suitable for large-scale recording on farm. Several groups have explored proxies (i.e., indicators or indirect traits) for CH 4 ; ideally these should be accurate, inexpensive, and amenable to being recorded individually on a large scale. This review (1) systematically describes the biological basis of current potential CH 4 proxies for dairy cattle; (2) assesses the accuracy and predictive power of single proxies and determines the added value of combining proxies; (3) provides a critical evaluation of the relative merit of the main proxies in terms of their simplicity, cost, accuracy, invasiveness, and throughput; and (4) discusses their suitability as selection traits. The proxies range from simple and low-cost measurements such as body weight and high-throughput milk mid-infrared spectroscopy (MIR) to more challenging measures such as rumen morphology, rumen metabolites, or microbiome profiling. Proxies based on rumen samples are generally poor to moderately accurate predictors of CH 4 , and are costly and difficult to measure routinely on-farm. Proxies related to body weight or milk yield and composition, on the other hand, are relatively simple, inexpensive, and high throughput, and are easier to implement in practice. In particular, milk MIR, along with covariates such as lactation stage, are a promising option for prediction of CH 4 emission in dairy cows. No single proxy was found to accurately predict CH 4 , and combinations of 2 or more proxies are likely to be a better solution. Combining proxies can increase the accuracy of predictions by 15 to 35%, mainly because different proxies describe independent sources of variation in CH 4 and one proxy can correct for shortcomings in the other(s). The most important applications of CH 4 proxies are in dairy cattle management and breeding for lower environmental impact. When breeding for traits of lower environmental impact, single or multiple proxies can be used as indirect criteria for the breeding objective, but care should be taken to avoid unfavorable correlated responses. Finally, although combinations of proxies appear to provide the most accurate estimates of CH 4 , the greatest limitation today is the lack of robustness in their general applicability. Future efforts should therefore be directed toward developing combinations of proxies that are robust and applicable across diverse production systems and environments. The Authors. Published by the Federation of Animal Science Societies and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Biodegradation of aged diesel in diverse soil matrixes: impact of environmental conditions and bioavailability on microbial remediation capacity.

PubMed

Sutton, Nora B; van Gaans, Pauline; Langenhoff, Alette A M; Maphosa, Farai; Smidt, Hauke; Grotenhuis, Tim; Rijnaarts, Huub H M

2013-07-01

While bioremediation of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) is in general a robust technique, heterogeneity in terms of contaminant and environmental characteristics can impact the extent of biodegradation. The current study investigates the implications of different soil matrix types (anthropogenic fill layer, peat, clay, and sand) and bioavailability on bioremediation of an aged diesel contamination from a heterogeneous site. In addition to an uncontaminated sample for each soil type, samples representing two levels of contamination (high and low) were also used; initial TPH concentrations varied between 1.6 and 26.6 g TPH/kg and bioavailability between 36 and 100 %. While significant biodegradation occurred during 100 days of incubation under biostimulating conditions (64.4-100 % remediation efficiency), low bioavailability restricted full biodegradation, yielding a residual TPH concentration. Respiration levels, as well as the abundance of alkB, encoding mono-oxygenases pivotal for hydrocarbon metabolism, were positively correlated with TPH degradation, demonstrating their usefulness as a proxy for hydrocarbon biodegradation. However, absolute respiration and alkB presence were dependent on soil matrix type, indicating the sensitivity of results to initial environmental conditions. Through investigating biodegradation potential across a heterogeneous site, this research illuminates the interplay between soil matrix type, bioavailability, and bioremediation and the implications of these parameters for the effectiveness of an in situ treatment.

Characterizing marine particles and their impact on biogeochemical cycles in the GEOTRACES program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Robert F.; Hayes, Christopher T.

2015-04-01

Trace elements and their isotopes (TEIs) are of priority interest in several subdisciplines of oceanography. For example, the vital role of trace element micronutrients in regulating the growth of marine organisms, which, in turn, may influence the structure and composition of marine ecosystems, is now well established (Morel and Price, 2003; Twining and Baines, 2013). Natural distributions of some TEIs have been severely impacted by anthropogenic emissions, leading to substantial perturbations of natural ocean inventories. Pb and Hg, for example, (Lamborg et al., 2002; Schaule and Patterson, 1981), may represent a significant threat to human food supply. Furthermore, much of our knowledge of past variability in the ocean environment, including the ocean's role in climate change, has been developed using TEI proxies archived in marine substrates such as sediments, corals and microfossils. Research in each of these areas relies on a comprehensive knowledge of the distributions of TEIs in the ocean, and on the sensitivity of these distributions to changing environmental conditions. With numerous processes affecting the regional supply and removal of TEIs in the ocean, a comprehensive understanding of the marine biogeochemical cycles of TEIs can be attained only by a global, coordinated, international effort. GEOTRACES, an international program designed to study the marine biogeochemical cycles of trace elements and their isotopes (Anderson et al., 2014; Henderson et al., 2007), aims to achieve these goals.

Late Holocene Lake Level Fluctuations at Laguna Arapa, Peru and Connections to Human Demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillman, A. L.; Abbott, M. B.; Werne, J. P.; Arkush, E.; Thompson, L. G.; Ferland, T.; Holmes, E.; Puhnaty, C.; Woods, A.

2016-12-01

The relationship between variations in hydroclimate and human demography on the Peruvian Altiplano has significant implications for understanding how people in the past have adapted to changes in freshwater resources. To investigate these human-environmental interactions, this project presents a 2,000 year sediment record from Laguna Arapa, a large lake that is <20 km NW of Lake Titicaca. Using sedimentology and stratigraphy as well as a suite of organic geochemical proxies including fecal 5β-stanols and leaf waxes (long chain n-alkanoic acids), we aim to tie together proxies of human population with indicators of regional hydroclimate. Preliminary results of sedimentology and stratigraphy show notable transitions from sand to silt to clay, suggesting rising lake level sequences at 500 and 700 AD. The last 1,300 years of sediment are characterized by alternating layers of organic rich material with abundant charcoal and black inorganic clay, suggesting intermittent periods of aridity and/or anthropogenic fire-setting. These layers are particularly frequent during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was characterized by dry and warm conditions. These results agree well with other records of hydroclimate from regional lakes as well as accumulation rate and temperature from the Quelccaya ice cap. Organic geochemical work is currently in progress and shows promise for linking together proxies of human demography with hydroclimate to understand the relationship between human settlement and climate change.

Simulating climate and stable water isotopes during the Last Interglacial using a coupled climate-isotope model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gierz, Paul; Werner, Martin; Lohmann, Gerrit

2017-09-01

Understanding the dynamics of warm climate states has gained increasing importance in the face of anthropogenic climate change, and while it is possible to simulate warm interglacial climates, these simulated results cannot be evaluated without the aid of geochemical proxies. One such proxy is δ18O, which allows for inference about both a climate state's hydrology and temperature. We utilize a stable water isotope equipped climate model to simulate three stages during the Last Interglacial (LIG), corresponding to 130, 125, and 120 kyr before present, using forcings for orbital configuration as well as greenhouse gases. We discover heterogeneous responses in the mean δ18O signal to the climate forcing, with large areas of depletion in the LIG δ18O signal over the tropical Atlantic, the Sahel, and the Indian subcontinent, and with enrichment over the Pacific and Arctic Oceans. While we find that the climatology mean relationship between δ18O and temperature remains stable during the LIG, we also discover that this relationship is not spatially consistent. Our results suggest that great care must be taken when comparing δ18O records of different paleoclimate archives with the results of climate models as both the qualitative and quantitative interpretation of δ18O variations as a proxy for past temperature changes may be problematic due to the complexity of the signals.

Tropical Pacific climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly: progress and pitfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, K. M.; Westphal, N.; Charles, C.; Sayani, H. R.; Edwards, R. L.; Cheng, H.; Grothe, P. R.; Chen, T.; Hitt, N. T.; O'Connor, G.; Atwood, A. R.

2016-12-01

A vast trove of paleoclimate records indicates that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900-1200AD) was characterized by relative warmth throughout the Northern Hemisphere and significant hydroclimate anomalies - particularly well-resolved over North America - that posed a challenge to human populations. The global-scale nature of the climate anomalies has driven speculation that the tropical Pacific, with its rich spectrum of natural variability and far-reaching impact, may have undergone a prolonged reorganization during the MCA. While some key records from across the tropical Pacific document significant changes in temperature and/or hydrology, a dynamically-consistent picture of the MCA tropical Pacific climate state has proven elusive. In particular, there are few if any robust paleoclimate constraints from the central Pacific, where even modest changes in ocean temperature translate into distinct patterns of global atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we present a new collection of fossil coral multi-proxy records from Christmas Island (2N, 157W) that provide robust constraints on both temperature and hydrological changes during the MCA. We employ both modern coral data, instrumental climate data, and climate model output in developing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties associated with the new fossil coral data. In doing so, we illustrate the clear benefits of modern environmental monitoring campaigns that inform the generation of paleoclimate pseudo-proxies.

Developing Present-day Proxy Cases Based on NARVAL Data for Investigating Low Level Cloud Responses to Future Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reilly, Stephanie

2017-04-01

The energy budget of the entire global climate is significantly influenced by the presence of boundary layer clouds. The main aim of the High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for Advancing Climate Prediction (HD(CP)2) project is to improve climate model predictions by means of process studies of clouds and precipitation. This study makes use of observed elevated moisture layers as a proxy of future changes in tropospheric humidity. The associated impact on radiative transfer triggers fast responses in boundary layer clouds, providing a framework for investigating this phenomenon. The investigation will be carried out using data gathered during the Next-generation Aircraft Remote-sensing for VALidation (NARVAL) South campaigns. Observational data will be combined with ECMWF reanalysis data to derive the large scale forcings for the Large Eddy Simulations (LES). Simulations will be generated for a range of elevated moisture layers, spanning a multi-dimensional phase space in depth, amplitude, elevation, and cloudiness. The NARVAL locations will function as anchor-points. The results of the large eddy simulations and the observations will be studied and compared in an attempt to determine how simulated boundary layer clouds react to changes in radiative transfer from the free troposphere. Preliminary LES results will be presented and discussed.

Quality of life of Malaysian children with CHD.

PubMed

Ong, Lai C; Teh, Ching S; Darshinee, Joyce; Omar, Asma; Ang, Hak L

2017-09-01

The objectives of this study were to compare the quality-of-life scores of Malaysian children with CHD and their healthy siblings, to determine the level of agreement between proxy-reports and child self-reports, and to examine variables that have an impact on quality of life in those with CHD. Parental-proxy scores of the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 core scales were obtained for 179 children with CHD and 172 siblings. Intra-class coefficients were derived to determine the levels of proxy-child agreement in 66 children aged 8-18 years. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine factors that impacted Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory scores. Proxy scores were lower in children with CHD than siblings for all scales except physical health. Maximum differences were noted in children aged 5-7 years, whereas there were no significant differences in the 2-4 and 13-18 years age groups. Good levels of proxy-child agreement were found in children aged 8-12 years for total, psychosocial health, social, and school functioning scales (correlation coefficients 0.7-0.8). In children aged 13-18 years, the level of agreement was poor to fair for emotional and social functioning. The need for future surgery and severity of symptoms were associated with lower scores. Differences in proxy perception of quality of life appear to be age related. The level of proxy-child agreement was higher compared with other reported studies, with lower levels of agreement in teenagers. Facilitating access to surgery and optimising control of symptoms may improve quality of life in this group of children.

Measurements of Hygroscopicity- and Size-Resolved Sea Spray Aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, B.; Dawson, K. W.; Royalty, T. M.; Reed, R. E.; Petters, M.; Meskhidze, N.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric aerosols play a central role in many environmental processes by influencing the Earth's radiative balance, tropospheric chemistry, clouds, biogeochemical cycles, and visibility as well as adversely impacting human health. Based on their origin, atmospheric aerosols can be defined as anthropogenic or natural. Recent studies have shown that a large fraction of uncertainty in the radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols is related to uncertainty in natural—background—aerosols. Marine aerosols are of particular interest due to the abundance of oceans covering the Earth's surface. Despite their importance, limited information is currently available for size- and composition-resolved marine aerosol emission fluxes. Our group has designed and built an instrument for measuring the size- and hygroscopicity-resolved sea spray aerosol fluxes. The instrument was first deployed during spring 2015 at the end of the 560 m pier of the US Army Corps of Engineers' Field Research Facility in Duck, NC. Measurements include 200 nm-sized diameter growth factor (hygroscopicity) distributions, sea spray particle flux measurements, and total sub-micron sized aerosol concentration. Ancillary ocean data includes salinity, pH, sea surface temperature, dissolved oxygen content, and relative fluorescence (proxy for [Chl-a]). Hygroscopicity distribution measurements show two broad peaks, one indicative of organics and sulfates and another suggestive of sea salt. The fraction of 200 nm-sized salt particles having hygroscopicity similar to that of sea-spray aerosol contributes up to ~24% of the distribution on days with high-speed onshore winds and up to ~3% on calm days with winds blowing from the continent. However, the total concentration of sea-spray-like particles originating from offshore versus onshore winds was relatively similar. Changes in the relative contribution of sea-salt to number concentration were caused by a concomitant changes in total aerosol concentration, indicating a local source.

Lidar characterizations of atmospheric aerosols and clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrare, R. A.; Hostetler, C. A.; Hair, J. W.; Burton, S. P.

2017-12-01

Knowledge of the vertical profile, composition, concentration, and size distribution of aerosols is required to quantify the impacts of aerosols on human health, global and regional climate, clouds and precipitation. In particular, radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols is the most uncertain part of anthropogenic radiative forcing, with aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) as the largest source of uncertainty in current estimates of global radiative forcing. Improving aerosol transport model predictions of the vertical profile of aerosol optical and microphysical characteristics is crucial for improving assessments of aerosol radiative forcing. Understanding how aerosols and clouds interact is essential for investigating the aerosol indirect effect and ACI. Through its ability to provide vertical profiles of aerosol and cloud distributions as well as important information regarding the optical and physical properties of aerosols and clouds, lidar is a crucial tool for addressing these science questions. This presentation describes how surface, airborne, and satellite lidar measurements have been used to address these questions, and in particular how High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) measurements provide profiles of aerosol properties (backscatter, extinction, depolarization, concentration, size) important for characterizing radiative forcing. By providing a direct measurement of aerosol extinction, HSRL provides more accurate aerosol measurement profiles and more accurate constraints for models than standard retrievals from elastic backscatter lidar, which loses accuracy and precision at lower altitudes due to attenuation from overlying layers. Information regarding particle size and abundance from advanced lidar retrievals provides better proxies for cloud-condensation-nuclei (CCN), which are required for assessing aerosol-cloud interactions. When combined with data from other sensors, advanced lidar measurements can provide information on aerosol and cloud properties for addressing both direct and indirect radiative forcing.

Pre-industrial baseline variation of upper midwestern forests in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Goring, S. J.; Williams, J. W.; Jackson, S. T.; McLachlan, J. S.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in Earth systems processes, yet we still do not understand how they respond to changes in climate. While it has been argued that terrestrial ecosystems were fairly stable (by Quaternary standards) in the millennia before major anthropogenic disruption, others have emphasized vegetation response to environmental variability during this time. These competing perspectives are not necessarily in conflict, but argue for a quantitative assessment of forest ecosystem variability over the last several millennia. Here we reconstruct maps of forest composition for the last two millenia, with uncertainty. To do this, we use a network of fossil pollen records - the most reliable paleoecological proxy for forest composition. We link the fossil pollen records to public land survey forest composition using a Bayesian hierarchical model which accounts for key processes including pollen production and dispersal. The model is calibrated using data from the pre-settlement time with the hope of minimizing anthropogenic impacts. Process parameters are estimated in the calibration phase, and are subsequently used in the prediction phase to generate spatially explicit maps of relative species composition across the upper Midwestern US over the last 2000 years, with robust uncertainty estimates. Estimates of forest composition and uncertainty show many previously noted vegetation shifts, three of which we discuss here. First, we see expansion of the hemlock range into western Wisconsin. Second, we see changes along the prairie-forest ecotone. Third, we see significant increases in elm at approximately 500 YBP in the region known as the Minnesota Big Woods. These changes are significant in both a statistical and ecological sense, but the scale of these changes is small relative to changes in the early holocene. Our novel spatio-temporal composition estimates will be used to improve the forecasting capabilities of ecosystem models.

Mapping Asian anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds to multiple chemical mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Zhang, Q.; Streets, D. G.; He, K. B.; Cheng, Y. F.; Emmons, L. K.; Huo, H.; Kang, S. C.; Lu, Z.; Shao, M.; Su, H.; Yu, X.; Zhang, Y.

2013-12-01

An accurate speciation mapping of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emissions has an important impact on the performance of chemical transport models (CTMs) in simulating ozone mixing ratios and secondary organic aerosols. In this work, we developed an improved speciation framework to generate model-ready anthropogenic Asian NMVOC emissions for various gas-phase chemical mechanisms commonly used in CTMs by using an explicit assignment approach and updated NMVOC profiles, based on the total NMVOC emissions in the INTEX-B Asian inventory for the year 2006. NMVOC profiles were selected and aggregated from a wide range of new measurements and the SPECIATE database. To reduce potential uncertainty from individual measurements, composite profiles were developed by grouping and averaging source profiles from the same category. The fractions of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOC) were corrected during the compositing process for those profiles which used improper sampling and analyzing methods. Emissions of individual species were then lumped into species in different chemical mechanisms used in CTMs by applying mechanism-dependent species mapping tables, which overcomes the weakness of inaccurate mapping in previous studies. Gridded emissions for eight chemical mechanisms are developed at 30 min × 30 min resolution using various spatial proxies and are provided through the website: http://mic.greenresource.cn/intex-b2006. Emission estimates for individual NMVOC species differ between one and three orders of magnitude for some species when different sets of profiles are used, indicating that source profile is the most important source of uncertainties of individual species emissions. However, those differences are diminished in lumped species as a result of the lumping in the chemical mechanisms.

A Tropical View of Atlantic Multidecadal SST Variability over the Last Two Millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurtzel, J. B.; Black, D. E.; Thunell, R.; Peterson, L. C.; Tappa, E. J.; Rahman, S.

2011-12-01

Instrumental and proxy-reconstructions show the existence of a 60-80 year periodicity in Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO is correlated with circum-tropical Atlantic climate phenomena such as Sahel and Nordeste rainfall, as well as Atlantic hurricane patterns. Though it has been suggested that the AMO is controlled by thermohaline circulation, much debate exists as to whether the SST fluctuations are a result of anthropogenic forcing or natural climate variability. Our ability to address this issue has been limited by instrumental SST records that rarely extend back more than 50-100 years and proxy reconstructions that are largely terrestrial-based. Here we present a high-resolution marine sediment-derived reconstruction of seasonal tropical Atlantic SSTs from the Cariaco Basin spanning the past two millennia that is correlated with instrumental SSTs and the AMO for the period of overlap. The full record demonstrates that seasonality is largely controlled by variations in winter/spring SST. Wavelet analysis of the proxy data suggest that variability in the 60-80 year band evolved 250 years ago, while 40-60 year periodicities dominate earlier parts of the record. At least over the last millennia, multidecadal- and centennial- scale SST variability in the tropical Atlantic appears related to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) fluctuations and its associated northward heat transport that in turn may be driven by solar variability. An inverse correlation between the tropical proxy annual average SST record and Δ14C indicates that the tropics experienced positive SST anomalies during times of reduced solar activity, possibly as a result of decreased AMOC strength (Figure 1).

Stalagmite high resolution local paleoclimatic proxies for Late Holocene in Mesoamerica: Exploring role of moisture upon the development of Mesoamerican cultures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez Izquierdo, H. B.; Bernal, J. P.; Pérez Enriquez, R.; Böhnel, H.; Morales-Malacara, J. B.; Solari, L.; Gómez-Tuena, A.

2010-03-01

The relationship between climate change and culture development in Mesoamerica is complex to unravel since many written archives were destroyed during natural disasters and cultural conflicts such as Spanish conquest. Local paleoclimate records offer a way to reconstruct this relationship. Stalagmites are amongst the most reliable records of past climate variability, due to their evolution in closed-system conditions, ease of dating, and inclusion of several geochemical proxies (such as calcite oxygen and carbon isotopic composition, trace element concentration and/or elemental ratios, color and grey-tone scale). Recently, stalagmites have been used as records to explore the climatic change during Holocene and its cultural relation in Mediterranean, Asian, North American and east African cultures. Only few works were made, however, for Mesoamerican cultures. We study here a banded stalagmite belonging to Jalpan, Queretaro, central Mexico. This stalagmite was found actively growing, with its base dated at 6.85 +/- 0.3 Ka B.P. A high resolution LA-ICP-MS Mg/Ca analysis as well as grey tone analysis were obtained in order to create annual resolution time series. The proxies were correlated with local and north Atlantic paleoclimate records. Such proxies also show signals associated with volcanic eruptions (Tacana, el Chichon, Popocatepetl and Ceboruco) during the Classic period. Other signals are associated with Maya civilization collapse. These results portray the relationship between the agricultural and population patterns with moisture variability for the center of Mexico (Teotihuacan influence zone) during late Formative and Classic period. Finally, we observe patterns such as the corresponding to the little ice age and the anthropogenic climate warming, the latter correlated with local precipitation data.

Historical and Future Trends in Global Source-receptor Relationships of Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.; Zhang, W.; Wang, X.

2017-12-01

Growing concerns about the risk associated with increasing environmental Mercury (Hg) levels have resulted in a focus on the relationships between intercontinental emitted and accumulated Hg. We use a global biogeochemical Hg model with eight continental regions and a global ocean to evaluate the legacy impacts of historical anthropogenic releases (2000 BC to 2008 AD) on global source-receptor relationships of Hg. The legacy impacts of historical anthropogenic releases are confirmed to be significant on the source-receptor relationships according to our results. Historical anthropogenic releases from Asia account for 8% of total soil Hg in North America, which is smaller than the proportion ( 17%) from previous studies. The largest contributors to the global oceanic Hg are historical anthropogenic releases from North America (26%), Asia (16%), Europe (14%) and South America (14%). Although anthropogenic releases from Asia have exceeded North America since the 1970s, source contributions to global Hg receptors from Asia have not exceeded North America so far. Future projections indicate that if Hg emissions are not effectively controlled, Asia will exceed North America as the largest contributor to the global ocean in 2019 and this has a long-term adverse impact on the future environment. For the Arctic Ocean, historical anthropogenic release from North America contributes most to the oceanic Hg reservoir and future projections reveal that the legacy impacts of historical releases from mid-latitudes would lead to the potential of rising Hg in the Arctic Ocean in the future decades, which calls for more effective Hg controls on mid-latitude releases.

Historical and future trends in global source-receptor relationships of mercury.

PubMed

Chen, Long; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Yanxu; Tong, Yindong; Liu, Maodian; Wang, Huanhuan; Xie, Han; Wang, Xuejun

2018-01-01

Growing concern about the risk associated with increasing environmental mercury (Hg) concentrations has resulted in a focus on the relationships between intercontinental emitted and accumulated Hg. We use a global biogeochemical Hg model with 8 continental regions and a global ocean to evaluate the legacy impacts of historical anthropogenic releases (2000BCE to 2008AD) on global source-receptor relationships of Hg. Legacy impacts of historical anthropogenic releases are confirmed to be significant on the source-receptor relationships according to our results. Historical anthropogenic releases from Asia account for 8% of total soil Hg in North America, which is smaller than the proportion (~17%) from previous studies. The largest contributors to the global oceanic Hg are historical anthropogenic releases from North America (26%), Asia (16%), Europe (14%) and South America (14%). Although anthropogenic releases from Asia have exceeded North America since the 1970s, source contributions to global Hg receptors from Asia have not exceeded North America so far. Future projections indicate that if Hg emissions are not effectively controlled, Asia will exceed North America as the largest contributor to the global ocean in 2019 and this has a long-term adverse impact on the future environment. For the Arctic Ocean, historical anthropogenic release from North America contributes most to the oceanic Hg reservoir and future projections reveal that the legacy impacts of historical releases from mid-latitudes would lead to the potential of rising Hg in the Arctic Ocean in the future decades, which calls for more effective Hg controls on mid-latitude releases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd for disentangling anthropogenic and natural REE contributions in river water during flood events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hissler, Christophe; Stille, Peter; Pfister, Laurent

2017-04-01

The sustainable management of water resources is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. Water is a vital resource that is increasingly put under pressure from multiple perspectives. While the global population is on the rise, socio-economic development makes equally rapid progress - eventually compromising access to clean water bodies. Multiple pollution sources constitute an immediate threat to aquatic ecosystems and are likely to cause long lasting contaminations of water bodies that are critical for drinking and/or irrigation water production. There is a pressing need for an adequate quantification of anthropogenic impacts on the critical zone of river basins and the identification of the temporal dynamics of these impacts. As an example, despite the work done to assess the environmental impact of REE pollutions in larger river systems, we are still lacking information on the dynamics of these anthropogenic compounds in relation to rapid hydrological changes. Filling these knowledge gaps is a pre-requisite for the design and implementation of sustainable water resources management strategies. In order to better constrain the relative contributions of both anthropogenic and geogenic trace element sources we propose using a multitracer approach combining elemental and 87Sr/86Sr, 143Nd/144Nd, and 206Pb/207Pb isotopic ratios. The use of these three separate isotopic systems together with REE concentrations is new in the field of anthropogenic source identification in river systems. We observed enrichments in Anthropogenic Rare Earth Elements (AREE) for dissolved Gd and suspended Nd loads of river water. With increasing discharge, AREE anomalies progressively disappeared and gave way to the geogenic chemical signature of the basin in both dissolved and suspended loads. The isotopic data confirm these observations and shed new light on the trace elements sources. On the one hand, dissolved loads have peculiar isotopic characteristics and carry mainly limestone-derived and anthropogenic Sr and Nd as well as significant amounts of anthropogenic Pb. On the other hand, the results clearly indicate that anthropogenic contributions impact the suspended loads in all hydrological conditions. This study demonstrates that (i) the composition of the AREE pool is characteristic of a given river basin and controlled by the different anthropogenic contributions located in a specific study area and (ii) the anthropogenic contributions to the river may change not only Pb, but also Sr and Nd isotopic compositions in both dissolved and suspended loads. This is of importance for future provenance studies in the critical zone of polluted river basins.

Soil archives of mardel deposits: the impact of Late Holocene vegetation development, climatic oscillations and historical land use on soil erosion in Luxembourg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Mourik, Jan; Slotboom, Ruud

2014-05-01

Mardel genesis. Mardels are small scale circular to elongated closed depressions (Ø > 50 m). They occur in Luxembourg on the Lias plateau in the Gutland, but also in other regions with landscapes, developed on Keuper and Lias deposits (as Lorraine). We can distinguish geogenetic and anthropogenic mardels. There are two types of genetic mardels, sink holes (controlled by diaclases in the Luxembourger sandstone and 'true mardels' or subsidence basins (controlled by dissolved gypsic lenses in marls of the Keuper deposits). These mardels developed during the Holocene. The age of the mardel sediments is Subatlantic; the sediments have been deposited on a palaeosol. Anthropogenic mardels are the result of historic clay excavation (Roman Time or younger). The age of these mardels is Subatlantic. The age of the sediments is also Subatlantic; the sediments have been deposited on a truncated soil in excavations. In all the genetic types of mardels, the sediments can consist of peat, peaty loam, or colluvic clayloam and the mardel sediments contain always valuable soil archives for the reconstruction of the impact of vegetation development, climatic oscillations and land use on soil erosion and deposition. Comparison of mardel deposits and valley deposits. - Pre-Holocene mardels have been eroded during the Weichselian. Geogenic mardels have been developed during the Holocene, anthropogenic mardels have been excavated since Roman Time. The age of the clastic (colluvic) deposits in mardels is Subatlantic - In the Late Glacial, valley bottoms were rather broad and covered with a gravelly bed load. Till the Subboreal river incision was active in primary valleys and peat accumulation took place on broad valley bottoms of secondary valleys. Since Celtic/Roman Time deforestation and extension of agriculture. During the Subatlantic colluvic/alluvic sedimentation took place on all the valley bottoms. The Subatlantic is a period of accelerated sedimentation of clastic sediments in closed depressions and (open) valleys This was the impact of two factors. 1. Impact of natural forest evolution on soil erosivity. Fagus arrived in the area, jostled Tilia in the Subboreal and extended in the Subatlantic. The understory and humus forms changed, the erosivity of the surface increased and the consequence was accelerating soil erosion. Stable mardels changed in sediment traps, river valleys got constipated with colluvic/alluvic sediments. 2. Anthropogenic deforestation and extension of agriculture since Roman Time. Conclusions. 1. In a lot of studies, deforestation was considered as the responsible factor for soil erosion. 2. Impact of natural forest evolution (the appearance of Fagus) was not recognized 3. The impact of the Little Ice Age on Subatlantic soil erosion was not recognized 4. Three factors controlled Subatlantic soil erosion and mardel and valley deposition - The (natural) jostle of mixed oak forest by beach forest promoted soil erosivity and erosion - The (anthropogenic) deforestation and expansion of agriculture promoted soil erosion - The temporally move from pasture to arable land during the Little Ice Age promoted soil erosivity References. - Barth B (1996) Mardellen im Lotharingischen Gipskeuper. Delattinia 22: 7-60. - Buisman J (1995-2006) Duizend jaar weer, wind en water in de lage landen, Vols. 1-5. KNMI, Netherlands. - Etienne D, Ruffaldi P, Goepp S, Ritz F, Georges-Leroy M, Pollier B and Dambrine E (2011) The origin of closed depressions in Northeastern France: A new assessment. Geomorphology 126: 121-131. - Loehle C (2007) A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-treeing proxies. Energy and Environment, 18 No. 7+8 - Poeteray FA, Riezebos PA, Slotboom RT (1984) Rates of Subatlantic lowering calculated from mardel-trapped material (Gutland, Luxembourg). Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie 1984: 467-4821. - Schönwiese C (1995) Klimaänderungen: Daten, Analysen, Prognosen. Springer, Heidelberg - Slotboom RT (1963) Comparative geomorphological and palynological investigation of the pingos (Viviers) in the Haute Fagnes (Belgium) and the Mardellen in the Gutland (Luxembourg). Zeitschift für Geomorphologie 7: 193-231. - Riezebos PA and Slotboom RT (1978) Pollen analysis of the Husterbaach peat (Luxembourg). Boreas 7: 75-82 - Thoen, D. and Hérault, B., 2006. Flore, groups socio-écologique et typologie de mardelles forestières de Lorrainne belge et luxembourgeoise. Bull.Soc. luxemb. 107 (2006), 3-25.

Insect-plant interactions in anthropogenically transformed ecosystems

Treesearch

Evgeny V. Kultunov; Victor I. Ponomarev; Sergey I. Fedorenko

1991-01-01

Structural and functional changes in forests due to anthropogenic factors have a considerable impact on the interaction of phytophagous insects with the phytocenosis. Many features of these processes have yet to be investigated in the deciduous forest conditions of the forest-steppe zone. We investigated birch forests disturbed by anthropogenic factors in the middle...

A Decision Support Framework for Science-Based, Multi-Stakeholder Deliberation: A Coral Reef Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehr, Amanda P.; Small, Mitchell J.; Bradley, Patricia; Fisher, William S.; Vega, Ann; Black, Kelly; Stockton, Tom

2012-12-01

We present a decision support framework for science-based assessment and multi-stakeholder deliberation. The framework consists of two parts: a DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses) analysis to identify the important causal relationships among anthropogenic environmental stressors, processes, and outcomes; and a Decision Landscape analysis to depict the legal, social, and institutional dimensions of environmental decisions. The Decision Landscape incorporates interactions among government agencies, regulated businesses, non-government organizations, and other stakeholders. It also identifies where scientific information regarding environmental processes is collected and transmitted to improve knowledge about elements of the DPSIR and to improve the scientific basis for decisions. Our application of the decision support framework to coral reef protection and restoration in the Florida Keys focusing on anthropogenic stressors, such as wastewater, proved to be successful and offered several insights. Using information from a management plan, it was possible to capture the current state of the science with a DPSIR analysis as well as important decision options, decision makers and applicable laws with a the Decision Landscape analysis. A structured elicitation of values and beliefs conducted at a coral reef management workshop held in Key West, Florida provided a diversity of opinion and also indicated a prioritization of several environmental stressors affecting coral reef health. The integrated DPSIR/Decision landscape framework for the Florida Keys developed based on the elicited opinion and the DPSIR analysis can be used to inform management decisions, to reveal the role that further scientific information and research might play to populate the framework, and to facilitate better-informed agreement among participants.

Multi-proxy reconstructions of hydrologic change during the Eocene-Oligocene transition in the North American Interior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eley, Y.; Hren, M. T.

2016-12-01

The dramatic shift from a 'greenhouse' to an 'icehouse' world that occurred during the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT, 34-33.5 Ma) is associated with changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, extinction events in both marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and the establishment of a continental-scale ice sheet on Antarctica. Terrestrial records of the EOT, however, show limited consensus regarding the intensity and impact of this transition, complicating our understanding of how terrestrial hydrology responds to climatic change of this magnitude. Stable isotopes of fossil bones and teeth from the White River Group (WRG) in Nebraska have been interpreted to show an 8 °C decrease in mean annual temperatures across the EOT, with an increase in seasonality, however these studies find no evidence for accompanying changes in aridity. Conversely, other studies have inferred increased aridity in the early Oligocene based on changes in the δ18O and δ13C values of mammalian tooth enamel sampled from the same location. Some of this ambiguity is likely to stem from the difficulty in separating the influence of factors such as temperature, water availability and atmospheric circulation patterns on the δ18O composition of ungulate tooth enamel. We present paired leaf wax biomarker and clay hydrogen isotope data from the WRG to produce a new multi-proxy record of hydrological change and accompanying ecosystem shifts through the EOT in the North American interior. Hydrogen isotopes of clay minerals show a negative shift of <15‰ from the late Eocene through early Oligocene, while in contrast leaf wax n-alkanes record a negative shift in excess of 50‰, in tandem with a positive change in average chain length. We infer an increase in aridity from these data, with an associated potential shift in vegetation cover towards more savannah-style plant species as the climate became drier during the transition into the Oligocene. These data provide new constraints on the impact of the EOT in North America, and highlight the potential role of increasing aridity, in addition to declining temperatures, in shaping the hydrology of the region during this interval.

Sediment bacterial community structures and their predicted functions implied the impacts from natural processes and anthropogenic activities in coastal area.

PubMed

Su, Zhiguo; Dai, Tianjiao; Tang, Yushi; Tao, Yile; Huang, Bei; Mu, Qinglin; Wen, Donghui

2018-06-01

Coastal ecosystem structures and functions are changing under natural and anthropogenic influences. In this study, surface sediment samples were collected from disturbed zone (DZ), near estuary zone (NEZ), and far estuary zone (FEZ) of Hangzhou Bay, one of the most seriously polluted bays in China. The bacterial community structures and predicted functions varied significantly in different zones. Firmicutes were found most abundantly in DZ, highlighting the impacts of anthropogenic activities. Sediment total phosphorus was most influential on the bacterial community structures. Predicted by PICRUSt analysis, DZ significantly exceeded FEZ and NEZ in the subcategory of Xenobiotics Biodegradation and Metabolism; and DZ enriched all the nitrate reduction related genes, except nrfA gene. Seawater salinity and inorganic nitrogen, respectively as the representative natural and anthropogenic factor, performed exact-oppositely in nitrogen metabolism functions. The changes of bacterial community compositions and predicted functions provide a new insight into human-induced pollution impacts on coastal ecosystem. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shipbuilding Docks as Experimental Systems for Realistic Assessments of Anthropogenic Stressors on Marine Organisms

PubMed Central

Harding, Harry R.; Bunce, Tom; Birch, Fiona; Lister, Jessica; Spiga, Ilaria; Benson, Tom; Rossington, Kate; Jones, Diane; Tyler, Charles R.; Simpson, Stephen D.

2017-01-01

Abstract Empirical investigations of the impacts of anthropogenic stressors on marine organisms are typically performed under controlled laboratory conditions, onshore mesocosms, or via offshore experiments with realistic (but uncontrolled) environmental variation. These approaches have merits, but onshore setups are generally small sized and fail to recreate natural stressor fields, whereas offshore studies are often compromised by confounding factors. We suggest the use of flooded shipbuilding docks to allow studying realistic exposure to stressors and their impacts on the intra- and interspecific responses of animals. Shipbuilding docks permit the careful study of groups of known animals, including the evaluation of their behavioral interactions, while enabling full control of the stressor and many environmental conditions. We propose that this approach could be used for assessing the impacts of prominent anthropogenic stressors, including chemicals, ocean warming, and sound. Results from shipbuilding-dock studies could allow improved parameterization of predictive models relating to the environmental risks and population consequences of anthropogenic stressors. PMID:29599545

Anthropogenic impacts on mosquito populations in North America over the past century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochlin, Ilia; Faraji, Ary; Ninivaggi, Dominick V.; Barker, Christopher M.; Kilpatrick, A. Marm

2016-12-01

The recent emergence and spread of vector-borne viruses including Zika, chikungunya and dengue has raised concerns that climate change may cause mosquito vectors of these diseases to expand into more temperate regions. However, the long-term impact of other anthropogenic factors on mosquito abundance and distributions is less studied. Here, we show that anthropogenic chemical use (DDT; dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and increasing urbanization were the strongest drivers of changes in mosquito populations over the last eight decades in areas on both coasts of North America. Mosquito populations have increased as much as tenfold, and mosquito communities have become two- to fourfold richer over the last five decades. These increases are correlated with the decay in residual environmental DDT concentrations and growing human populations, but not with temperature. These results illustrate the far-reaching impacts of multiple anthropogenic disturbances on animal communities and suggest that interactions between land use and chemical use may have unforeseen consequences on ecosystems.

Shipbuilding Docks as Experimental Systems for Realistic Assessments of Anthropogenic Stressors on Marine Organisms.

PubMed

Bruintjes, Rick; Harding, Harry R; Bunce, Tom; Birch, Fiona; Lister, Jessica; Spiga, Ilaria; Benson, Tom; Rossington, Kate; Jones, Diane; Tyler, Charles R; Radford, Andrew N; Simpson, Stephen D

2017-09-01

Empirical investigations of the impacts of anthropogenic stressors on marine organisms are typically performed under controlled laboratory conditions, onshore mesocosms, or via offshore experiments with realistic (but uncontrolled) environmental variation. These approaches have merits, but onshore setups are generally small sized and fail to recreate natural stressor fields, whereas offshore studies are often compromised by confounding factors. We suggest the use of flooded shipbuilding docks to allow studying realistic exposure to stressors and their impacts on the intra- and interspecific responses of animals. Shipbuilding docks permit the careful study of groups of known animals, including the evaluation of their behavioral interactions, while enabling full control of the stressor and many environmental conditions. We propose that this approach could be used for assessing the impacts of prominent anthropogenic stressors, including chemicals, ocean warming, and sound. Results from shipbuilding-dock studies could allow improved parameterization of predictive models relating to the environmental risks and population consequences of anthropogenic stressors.

Global change in wilderness areas: disentangling natural and anthropogenic changes

Treesearch

Lisa J. Graumlich

2000-01-01

Human impacts on the Earth’s ecosystems are globally pervasive. Wilderness areas, although largely protected from direct human impact at local scales, nevertheless are subject to global changes in atmospheric composition, climate and biodiversity. Research in wilderness areas plays a critical role in disentangling natural and anthropogenic changes in ecosystems by...

Anthropogenic Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gombosi, T. I.; Baker, D. N.; Balogh, A.; Erickson, P. J.; Huba, J. D.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

2017-11-01

Anthropogenic effects on the space environment started in the late 19th century and reached their peak in the 1960s when high-altitude nuclear explosions were carried out by the USA and the Soviet Union. These explosions created artificial radiation belts near Earth that resulted in major damages to several satellites. Another, unexpected impact of the high-altitude nuclear tests was the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that can have devastating effects over a large geographic area (as large as the continental United States). Other anthropogenic impacts on the space environment include chemical release experiments, high-frequency wave heating of the ionosphere and the interaction of VLF waves with the radiation belts. This paper reviews the fundamental physical process behind these phenomena and discusses the observations of their impacts.

A History of Vegetation, Sediment and Nutrient Dynamics at Tivoli North Bay, Hudson Estuary, New York

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sritrairat, Sanpisa; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Kenna, Timothy C.; Sambrotto, Ray; Kurdyla, Dorothy; Guilderson, Tom

2012-01-01

We conduct a stratigraphic paleoecological investigation at a Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve (HRNERR) site, Tivoli Bays, spanning the past 1100 years. Marsh sediment cores were analyzed for ecosystem changes using multiple proxies, including pollen, spores, macrofossils, charcoal, sediment bulk chemistry, and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes. The results reveal climatic shifts such as the warm and dry Medieval Warm Period (MWP) followed by the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA), along with significant anthropogenic influence on the watershed ecosystem. A five-fold expansion of invasive species, including Typha angustifolia and Phragmites australis, is documented along with marked changes in sediment composition and nutrient input. During the last century, a ten-fold sedimentation rate increase due to land-use changes is observed. The large magnitude of shifts in vegetation, sedimentation, and nutrients during the last few centuries suggest that human activities have made the greatest impact to the marshes of the Hudson Estuary during the last millennium. Climate variability and ecosystem changes similar to those observed at other marshes in northeastern and mid-Atlantic estuaries, attest to the widespread regional signature recorded at Tivoli Bays.

A place meaning scale for tropical marine settings.

PubMed

Wynveen, Christopher J; Kyle, Gerard T

2015-01-01

Over the past 20 years, most of the worldwide hectares set aside for environmental protection have been added to marine protected areas. Moreover, these areas are under tremendous pressure from negative anthropogenic impacts. Given this growth and pressure, there is a need to increase the understanding of the connection between people and marine environments in order to better manage the resource. One construct that researchers have used to understand human-environment connections is place meanings. Place meanings reflect the value and significance of a setting to individuals. Most investigations of place meanings have been confined to terrestrial settings. Moreover, most studies have had small sample sizes or have used place attachment scales as a proxy to gage the meanings individuals ascribe to a setting. Hence, it has become necessary to develop a place meaning scale for use with large samples and for use by those who are concerned about the management of marine environments. Therefore, the purpose of this investigation was to develop a scale to measure the importance people associate with the meanings they ascribe to tropical marine settings and empirically test the scale using two independent samples; that is, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary stakeholders.

A Place Meaning Scale for Tropical Marine Settings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wynveen, Christopher J.; Kyle, Gerard T.

2015-01-01

Over the past 20 years, most of the worldwide hectares set aside for environmental protection have been added to marine protected areas. Moreover, these areas are under tremendous pressure from negative anthropogenic impacts. Given this growth and pressure, there is a need to increase the understanding of the connection between people and marine environments in order to better manage the resource. One construct that researchers have used to understand human-environment connections is place meanings. Place meanings reflect the value and significance of a setting to individuals. Most investigations of place meanings have been confined to terrestrial settings. Moreover, most studies have had small sample sizes or have used place attachment scales as a proxy to gage the meanings individuals ascribe to a setting. Hence, it has become necessary to develop a place meaning scale for use with large samples and for use by those who are concerned about the management of marine environments. Therefore, the purpose of this investigation was to develop a scale to measure the importance people associate with the meanings they ascribe to tropical marine settings and empirically test the scale using two independent samples; that is, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary stakeholders.

Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system

PubMed Central

Schultz, Johannes A.; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

2015-01-01

Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics. PMID:26686001

Evaluating Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions in the Urban Salt Lake Valley through Inverse Modeling: Combining Long-term CO2 Observations and an Emission Inventory using a Multiple-box Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catharine, D.; Strong, C.; Lin, J. C.; Cherkaev, E.; Mitchell, L.; Stephens, B. B.; Ehleringer, J. R.

2016-12-01

The rising level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), driven by anthropogenic emissions, is the leading cause of enhanced radiative forcing. Increasing societal interest in reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions call for a computationally efficient method of evaluating anthropogenic CO2 source emissions, particularly if future mitigation actions are to be developed. A multiple-box atmospheric transport model was constructed in conjunction with a pre-existing fossil fuel CO2 emission inventory to estimate near-surface CO2 mole fractions and the associated anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the Salt Lake Valley (SLV) of northern Utah, a metropolitan area with a population of 1 million. A 15-year multi-site dataset of observed CO2 mole fractions is used in conjunction with the multiple-box model to develop an efficient method to constrain anthropogenic emissions through inverse modeling. Preliminary results of the multiple-box model CO2 inversion indicate that the pre-existing anthropogenic emission inventory may over-estimate CO2 emissions in the SLV. In addition, inversion results displaying a complex spatial and temporal distribution of urban emissions, including the effects of residential development and vehicular traffic will be discussed.

The last Deglaciation in the Mediterranean region: a multi-archives synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazin, Lucie; Siani, Giuseppe; Landais, Amaelle; Bassinot, Frank; Genty, Dominique; Govin, Aline; Michel, Elisabeth; Nomade, Sebastien; Waelbroeck, Claire

2016-04-01

Multiple proxies record past climatic changes in different climate archives. These proxies are influenced by different component of the climate system and bring complementary information on past climate variability. The major limitation when combining proxies from different archives comes from the coherency of their chronologies. Indeed, each climate archives possess their own dating methods, not necessarily coherent with each other's. Consequently, when we want to assess the latitudinal changes and mechanisms behind a climate event, we often have to rely on assumptions of synchronisation between the different archives, such as synchronous temperature changes during warming events (Austin and Hibbert 2010). Recently, a dating method originally developed to produce coherent chronologies for ice cores (Datice,Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) has been adapted in order to integrate different climate archives (ice cores, sediment cores and speleothems (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2015, Bazin et al., in prep)). In this presentation we present the validation of this multi-archives dating tool with a first application covering the last Deglaciation in the Mediterranean region. For this experiment, we consider the records from Monticchio, the MD90-917, Tenaghi Philippon and Lake Orhid sediment cores as well as continuous speleothems from Sofular, Soreq and La Mine caves. Using the Datice dating tool, and with the identification of common tephra layers between the cores considered, we are able to produce a multi-archives coherent chronology for this region, independently of any climatic assumption. Using this common chronological framework, we show that the usual climatic synchronisation assumptions are not valid over this region for the last glacial-interglacial transition. Finally, we compare our coherent Mediterranean chronology with Greenland ice core records in order to discuss the sequence of events of the last Deglaciation between these two regions.

Extreme flood event reconstruction spanning the last century in the El Bibane Lagoon (southeastern Tunisia): a multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Affouri, Aida; Dezileau, Laurent; Kallel, Nejib

2017-06-01

Climate models project that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will increase the frequency and the severity of some extreme weather events. The flood events represent a major risk for populations and infrastructures settled on coastal lowlands. Recent studies of lagoon sediments have enhanced our knowledge on extreme hydrological events such as palaeo-storms and on their relation with climate change over the last millennium. However, few studies have been undertaken to reconstruct past flood events from lagoon sediments. Here, the past flood activity was investigated using a multi-proxy approach combining sedimentological and geochemical analysis of surfaces sediments from a southeastern Tunisian catchment in order to trace the origin of sediment deposits in the El Bibane Lagoon. Three sediment sources were identified: marine, fluvial and aeolian. When applying this multi-proxy approach on core BL12-10, recovered from the El Bibane Lagoon, we can see that finer material, a high content of the clay and silt, and a high content of the elemental ratios (Fe / Ca and Ti / Ca) characterise the sedimentological signature of the palaeo-flood levels identified in the lagoonal sequence. For the last century, which is the period covered by the BL12-10 short core, three palaeo-flood events were identified. The age of these flood events have been determined by 210Pb and 137Cs chronology and give ages of AD 1995 ± 6, 1970 ± 9 and 1945 ± 9. These results show a good temporal correlation with historical flood events recorded in southern Tunisia in the last century (AD 1932, 1969, 1979 and 1995). Our finding suggests that reconstruction of the history of the hydrological extreme events during the upper Holocene is possible in this location through the use of the sedimentary archives.

Night-time lights as a proxy of human pressure on freshwater resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceola, Serena; Montanari, Alberto; Laio, Francesco

2017-04-01

The presence and availability of freshwater resources at the global scale control the dynamics and the biodiversity of river ecosystems, as well as the human development and the security of people and economies. The increasing human pressure on freshwater is known to potentially drive significant alterations on both ecohydrological and social dynamics. To date, a spatially-detailed snapshot (i.e. single in time) analysis of human water security and river biodiversity threats revealed that the majority of the world's population and river ecosystems are exposed to high levels of endangerment. However, the temporal evolution of these effects at the global scale is still unexplored. To this aim, moving from the recent progress on remote sensing techniques, we employed yearly averaged night-time light images available from 1992 to 2013 as a proxy of anthropogenic presence and activity and we investigated how threats to human water security and river biodiversity evolved in time in 405 major river basins. Our results show a consistent correlation between nightlights and ecohydrological and threats, providing innovative support for freshwater resources management.

Assessment of topsoil contamination near the Stanisław Siedlecki Polish Polar Station in Hornsund, Svalbard, using magnetic methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonet, T.; Górka-Kostrubiec, B.; Łuczak-Wilamowska, B.

2018-03-01

Topsoil contamination near the Stanisław Siedlecki Polish Polar Station (PPS), Hornsund, Svalbard, has been assessed using magnetic methods supplemented by chemical analyses and microscopic observations. Analysis of magnetic parameters has enabled to evaluate the concentration, magnetic mineralogy, and grain-size distribution of anthropogenic magnetic particles. Heavy-metal contamination near the PPS originates primarily from local sources. Anthropogenic spherical, magnetite-like particles were found near the station, whereas uncontaminated topsoil is devoid of such particles. Magnetic studies indicate that magnetite and goethite are the primary magnetic phases, with magnetite levels being higher in polluted area. Magnetic fraction of contaminated topsoil includes a mixture of single-domain and multi-domain grains, while uncontaminated topsoil contains smaller grains. Results show a clear correspondence between Pollution Load Index and magnetic susceptibility anomalies, and that the areal extent of PPS impact on the environment has not expanded significantly since 2004 (although a new contamination source, the scrap yard, is now present). A comparison of magnetic susceptibility measurements with metal analyses indicates that magnetic methods can be used as a rapid, inexpensive, non-invasive, and sensitive tool for the evaluation of topsoil contamination.

Holocene environmental changes inferred from biological and sedimentological proxies in a high elevation Great Basin lake in the northern Ruby Mountains, Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, David B.; Starratt, Scott W.; Anderson, Lysanna; Kusler, Jennifer E.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Addison, Jason A.; Wan, Elmira

2015-01-01

Multi-proxy analyses were conducted on a sediment core from Favre Lake, a high elevation cirque lake in the northern Ruby Mountains, Nevada, and provide a ca. 7600 year record of local and regional environmental change. Data indicate that lake levels were lower from 7600-5750 cal yr BP, when local climate was warmer and/or drier than today. Effective moisture increased after 5750 cal yr BP and remained relatively wet, and possibly cooler, until ca. 3750 cal yr BP. Results indicate generally dry conditions but also enhanced climatic variability from 3750-1750 cal yr BP, after which effective moisture increased. The timing of major changes in the Favre Lake proxy data are roughly coeval and in phase with those recorded in several paleoclimate studies across the Great Basin, suggesting regional climatic controls on local conditions and similar responses at high and low altitudes.

The influence of the interactions between anthropogenic activities and multiple ecological factors on land surface temperatures of urban forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Y.

2017-12-01

Context Land surface temperatures (LSTs) spatio-temporal distribution pattern of urban forests are influenced by many ecological factors; the identification of interaction between these factors can improve simulations and predictions of spatial patterns of urban cold islands. This quantitative research requires an integrated method that combines multiple sources data with spatial statistical analysis. Objectives The purpose of this study was to clarify urban forest LST influence interaction between anthropogenic activities and multiple ecological factors using cluster analysis of hot and cold spots and Geogdetector model. We introduced the hypothesis that anthropogenic activity interacts with certain ecological factors, and their combination influences urban forests LST. We also assumed that spatio-temporal distributions of urban forest LST should be similar to those of ecological factors and can be represented quantitatively. Methods We used Jinjiang as a representative city in China as a case study. Population density was employed to represent anthropogenic activity. We built up a multi-source data (forest inventory, digital elevation models (DEM), population, and remote sensing imagery) on a unified urban scale to support urban forest LST influence interaction research. Through a combination of spatial statistical analysis results, multi-source spatial data, and Geogdetector model, the interaction mechanisms of urban forest LST were revealed. Results Although different ecological factors have different influences on forest LST, in two periods with different hot spots and cold spots, the patch area and dominant tree species were the main factors contributing to LST clustering in urban forests. The interaction between anthropogenic activity and multiple ecological factors increased LST in urban forest stands, linearly and nonlinearly. Strong interactions between elevation and dominant species were generally observed and were prevalent in either hot or cold spots areas in different years. Conclusions In conclusion, a combination of spatial statistics and GeogDetector models should be effective for quantitatively evaluating interactive relationships among ecological factors, anthropogenic activity and LST.

Source apportionment of particulate organic matter using infrared spectra at multiple IMPROVE sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzmiakova, A.; Dillner, A. M.; Takahama, S.

2016-12-01

As organic aerosol is a dominant contributor to air pollution and radiative forcing in many regions in the United States, characterizing its composition and apportioning the organic mass to its major sources provides insight into atmospheric processes and guidance for decreasing its abundance. National networks, such as Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environment (IMPROVE), provide multi-site and multi-year particulate matter samples useful for evaluating sources over all four seasons. To this end, our study focuses on apportioning the particulate organic matter (OM) to specific anthropogenic and biological processes from year-long infrared aerosol measurements collected at six IMPROVE sites (five national park sites and one urban site) during 2011. Pooling these organic aerosol samples into one dataset, we apply factor and cluster analyses to extract four chemical factors (two dominated by processed emissions, one dominated by hydroxyl groups, and one by hydrocarbons) and ascribe each factor to a specific source depending on the site and season. We also present a method to characterize measurement uncertainty in infrared instrumental analysis and investigate sensitivity analysis in generated factors. In Phoenix (the urban site) we find the majority (80-95%) of the OM consisted of anthropogenic activities, such as traffic emissions, fossil fuel combustion (both all year long), and residential wood burning (fall to winter). Mineral dust emissions accounted for the rest of OM (5-20%). At the National Park sites the OM concentration was lower on average and consisted of marine and dust aerosols, summertime biomass burning and biogenic aerosols, processed fossil fuel combustion, and emissions from ships and oil refineries. Our study highlights the potential for further site-specific or multi-year aerosol characterization in the context of a long-term atmospheric sampling program to quantify sources of organic particles impacting air quality, aid in policy-making, and assess which (trans)formation mechanisms proposed in laboratory studies are consistent with observations.

Identifying the effects of human pressure on groundwater quality to support water management strategies in coastal regions: a multi-tracer and statistical approach (Bou-Areg region, Morocco).

PubMed

Re, V; Sacchi, E; Mas-Pla, J; Menció, A; El Amrani, N

2014-12-01

Groundwater pollution from anthropogenic sources is a serious concern affecting several coastal aquifers worldwide. Increasing groundwater exploitation, coupled with point and non-point pollution sources, are the main anthropogenic impacts on coastal environments and are responsible for severe health and food security issues. Adequate management strategies to protect groundwater from contamination and overexploitation are of paramount importance, especially in arid prone regions, where coastal aquifers often represent the main freshwater resource to sustain human needs. The Bou-Areg Aquifer (Morocco) is a perfect example of a coastal aquifer constantly exposed to all the negative externalities associated with groundwater use for agricultural purposes, which lead to a general increase in aquifer salinization. In this study data on 61 water samples, collected in June and November 2010, were used to: (i) track groundwater composition changes related to the use of irrigation water from different sources, (ii) highlight seasonal variations to assess aquifer vulnerability, and (iii) present a reproducible example of multi-tracer approach for groundwater management in rural coastal areas. Hydrogeochemical results show that Bou-Areg groundwater is characterized by - high salinity, associated with a remarkable increase in bicarbonate content in the crop growing season, due to more intense biological activity in irrigated soils. The coupled multi-tracer and statistical analysis confirms the strong dependency on irrigation activities as well as a clear identification of the processes governing the aquifer's hydrochemistry in the different seasons. Water Rock Interaction (WRI) dominates the composition of most of groundwater samples in the Low Irrigation season (L-IR) and Agricultural Return Flow (ARF) mainly affects groundwater salinization in the High Irrigation season (H-IR) in the same areas naturally affected by WRI. In the central part of the plain River Recharge (RR) from the Selouane River is responsible for the high groundwater salinity whilst Mixing Processes (MIX) occur in absence of irrigation activities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Climate and Human Impacts of Major Explosive Volcanism AD670-730, A Multi-proxy Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, C.; Ludlow, F.

2013-12-01

Chronologically secure volcanic events can provide an important tool to improve ice core dating as well as our understanding of volcano-climate responses. However, there is a substantial lack of reference horizons for ice-core dating during the first millennium, excepting the Taupo (New Zealand, AD186×10) and Vesuvius (Italy, AD 79) eruptions. In this exploratory case-study, we use a total of 20 ice core records, 9 from the Arctic and 11 from the Antarctic, together with historical records to examine the occurrence and climatic impact of explosive volcanism, AD 670-730. Sulfate signals comparable in magnitude to the sizeable 1815 Tambora eruption are detected in all of the ice-core time series, with different cores attributing the timing of eruptions to AD 676×2, 688×2, or 700×2, respectively. Historical records of widespread frost damage, anomalously warm winters, drought, famine and mortality from Chinese, European and Middle Eastern chronicles suggest substantial climate and social perturbations during AD 677-685 and AD 699-709. The distinctive double-peak feature seen in the majority of the volcanic signals from both poles at AD 676×2 and AD 688×2 suggests that these signals may belong to the same eruption, with those cores dating the signals to c.AD 676 generally considered to have a more precise chronology. Combining the evidence from natural and historical anthropogenic records and taking into account uncertainties (e.g. resolution, dating accuracy) associated with individual ice cores, we propose that a (most-likely) low-latitude eruption took place around AD676, followed by another possible eruption around AD700, identifiable by the significant acidity in polar ice-caps and historical documents. Unique historical observations of 'blood rain' in Ireland (often associated with Saharan sand deposition, but also plausibly with iron and manganese-rich tephra falls) also suggest a high-latitude eruption (possibly Icelandic) at AD693, corresponding to a GISP2 volcanic signal at 690.7×2.5. Results from this study attempt to characterize and reduce uncertainties in ice-core volcanic reconstructions, and make a contribution towards establishing a new reference horizon for this relatively under-studied period.

Medieval Horse Stable; The Results of Multi Proxy Interdisciplinary Research

PubMed Central

Dejmal, Miroslav; Lisá, Lenka; Fišáková Nývltová, Miriam; Bajer, Aleš; Petr, Libor; Kočár, Petr; Kočárová, Romana; Nejman, Ladislav; Rybníček, Michal; Sůvová, Zdenka; Culp, Randy; Vavrčík, Hanuš

2014-01-01

A multi proxy approach was applied in the reconstruction of the architecture of Medieval horse stable architecture, the maintenance practices associated with that structure as well as horse alimentation at the beginning of 13th century in Central Europe. Finally, an interpretation of the local vegetation structure along Morava River, Czech Republic is presented. The investigated stable experienced two construction phases. The infill was well preserved and its composition reflects maintenance practices. The uppermost part of the infill was composed of fresh stabling, which accumulated within a few months at the end of summer. Horses from different backgrounds were kept in the stable and this is reflected in the results of isotope analyses. Horses were fed meadow grasses as well as woody vegetation, millet, oat, and less commonly hemp, wheat and rye. Three possible explanations of stable usage are suggested. The stable was probably used on a temporary basis for horses of workers employed at the castle, courier horses and horses used in battle. PMID:24670874

Impact of spatial proxies on the representation of bottom-up emission inventories: A satellite-based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Guannan; Zhang, Qiang; Martin, Randall V.; Lin, Jintai; Huo, Hong; Zheng, Bo; Wang, Siwen; He, Kebin

2017-03-01

Spatial proxies used in bottom-up emission inventories to derive the spatial distributions of emissions are usually empirical and involve additional levels of uncertainty. Although uncertainties in current emission inventories have been discussed extensively, uncertainties resulting from improper spatial proxies have rarely been evaluated. In this work, we investigate the impact of spatial proxies on the representation of gridded emissions by comparing six gridded NOx emission datasets over China developed from the same magnitude of emissions and different spatial proxies. GEOS-Chem-modeled tropospheric NO2 vertical columns simulated from different gridded emission inventories are compared with satellite-based columns. The results show that differences between modeled and satellite-based NO2 vertical columns are sensitive to the spatial proxies used in the gridded emission inventories. The total population density is less suitable for allocating NOx emissions than nighttime light data because population density tends to allocate more emissions to rural areas. Determining the exact locations of large emission sources could significantly strengthen the correlation between modeled and observed NO2 vertical columns. Using vehicle population and an updated road network for the on-road transport sector could substantially enhance urban emissions and improve the model performance. When further applying industrial gross domestic product (IGDP) values for the industrial sector, modeled NO2 vertical columns could better capture pollution hotspots in urban areas and exhibit the best performance of the six cases compared to satellite-based NO2 vertical columns (slope = 1.01 and R2 = 0. 85). This analysis provides a framework for information from satellite observations to inform bottom-up inventory development. In the future, more effort should be devoted to the representation of spatial proxies to improve spatial patterns in bottom-up emission inventories.

Marsupials from space: fluctuating asymmetry, geographical information systems and animal conservation

PubMed Central

Teixeira, Camila Palhares; Hirsch, André; Perini, Henrique; Young, Robert John

2006-01-01

We report the development of a new quantitative method of assessing the effects of anthropogenic impacts on living beings; this method allows us to assess actual impacts and to travel backwards in time to assess impacts. In this method, we have crossed data on fluctuating asymmetry (FA, a measure of environmental or genetic stress), using Didelphis albiventris as a model, with geographical information systems data relating to environmental composition. Our results show that more impacted environments resulted in statistically higher levels of FA. Our method appears to be a useful and flexible conservation tool for assessing anthropogenic impacts. PMID:16627287

Late Holocene monsoon climate as evidenced by proxy records from a lacustrine sediment sequence in western Guangdong, South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Wei; Cao, jiayuan; Xue, Jibin; Ouyang, Jun; Tang, Xiaohong; Yin, Huanling; Liao, Congyun; Long, Kun

2014-02-01

The study of a 300-cm-thick exposed lacustrine sediment section in the Hedong village in Zhaoqing area which is located in sub-tropical west Guangdong Province in South China, demonstrates that the lacustrine sedimentary sequence possibly contains evidence for exploring variation of Asian monsoon climate. Multi-proxy records, including the humification intensity, total organic carbon, and grain size fractions, reveal a general trend towards dry and cold conditions in the late Holocene that this is because of a decrease in solar insolation on an orbital scale. Three intensified Asian summer monsoon (ASM) intervals (˜3300-3000 cal yr BP, ˜2600-1600 cal yr BP, and ˜900-600 cal yr BP), and three weakened ASM intervals (˜4000-3300 cal yr BP, ˜3000-2600 cal yr BP, and ˜1600-900 cal yr BP) are identified. Our humification record (HDcal) shows a good correlation on multi-centennial scale with the tree ring Δ14C record, a proxy of solar activity. A spectral analysis of HDcal reveals four significant cycles, i.e., ˜1250 yr, 300 yr, 110 yr, and 70 yr, and most of these cycles are related to the solar activity. Our findings indicate that solar output and oceanic-atmospheric circulation probably have influenced the late Holocene climate variability in the study region.

A multi-proxy analysis of Late Quaternary ocean and climate variability for the Maldives, Inner Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunzel, Dorothea; Schmiedl, Gerhard; Lindhorst, Sebastian; Mackensen, Andreas; Reolid, Jesús; Romahn, Sarah; Betzler, Christian

2017-12-01

As a natural sediment trap, the marine sediments of the sheltered central part of the Maldives Inner Sea represent an exceptional archive for paleoenvironmental and climate changes in the equatorial Indian Ocean. To evaluate the complex interplay between high-latitude and monsoonal climate variability, related dust fluxes, and regional oceanographic responses, we focused on Fe / Al, Ti / Al and Si / Ca ratios as proxies for terrigenous sediment delivery and total organic carbon (TOC) and Br XRF counts as proxies for marine productivity. Benthic foraminiferal fauna distributions, grain size and stable δ18O and δ13C data were used for evaluating changes in the benthic ecosystem and changes in the intermediate water circulation, bottom water current velocity and oxygenation. Our multi-proxy data record reveals an enhanced dust supply during the glacial intervals, causing elevated Fe / Al and Si / Ca ratios, an overall coarsening of the sediment and an increasing amount of agglutinated benthic foraminifera. The enhanced dust fluxes can be attributed to higher dust availability in the Asian desert and loess areas and its transport by intensified winter monsoon winds during glacial conditions. These combined effects of wind-induced mixing of surface waters and dust fertilization during the cold phases resulted in an increased surface water productivity and related organic carbon fluxes. Thus, the development of highly diverse benthic foraminiferal faunas with certain detritus and suspension feeders was fostered. The difference in the δ13C signal between epifaunal and deep infaunal benthic foraminifera reveals intermediate water oxygen concentrations between approximately 40 and 100 µmol kg-1 during this time. The precessional fluctuation pattern of oxygen changes resembles that from the deep Arabian Sea, suggesting an expansion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) from the Arabian Sea into the tropical Indian Ocean with a probable regional signal of strengthened winter-monsoon-induced organic matter fluxes and oxygen consumption further controlled by the varying inflow intensity of the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). In addition, the bottom water oxygenation pattern of the Maldives Inner Sea reveals a long phase of reduced ventilation during the last glacial period. This process is likely linked to the combined effects of generally enhanced oxygen consumption rates during high-productivity phases, reduced AAIW production and the restriction of upper bathyal environments in the Inner Sea during sea-level lowstands. Thus, our multi-proxy record reflects a close linkage between the Indian monsoon oscillation, intermediate water circulation, productivity and sea-level changes on orbital timescale.

Anthropogenic Sulfate, Clouds, and Climate Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghan, Steven J.

1997-01-01

This research work is a joint effort between research groups at the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Virginia Tech University, Georgia Institute of Technology, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University. It has been jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In this research, a detailed tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model that predicts oxidant concentrations as well as concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosols has been coupled to a general circulation model that distinguishes between cloud water mass and cloud droplet number. The coupled model system has been first validated and then used to estimate the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfur emissions. Both the direct radiative impact of the aerosols and their indirect impact through their influence on cloud droplet number are represented by distinguishing between sulfuric acid vapor and fresh and aged sulfate aerosols, and by parameterizing cloud droplet nucleation in terms of vertical velocity and the number concentration of aged sulfur aerosols. Natural sulfate aerosols, dust, and carbonaceous and nitrate aerosols and their influence on the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, through competition as cloud condensation nuclei, will also be simulated. Parallel simulations with and without anthropogenic sulfur emissions are performed for a global domain. The objectives of the research are: To couple a state-of-the-art tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model with a global climate model. To use field and satellite measurements to evaluate the treatment of tropospheric chemistry and aerosol physics in the coupled model. To use the coupled model to simulate the radiative (and ultimately climatic) impacts of anthropogenic sulfur emissions.

Coastal Evolution in a Mediterranean Microtidal Zone: Mid to Late Holocene Natural Dynamics and Human Management of the Castelló Lagoon, NE Spain.

PubMed

Ejarque, Ana; Julià, Ramon; Reed, Jane M; Mesquita-Joanes, Francesc; Marco-Barba, Javier; Riera, Santiago

2016-01-01

We present a palaeoenvironmental study of the Castelló lagoon (NE Spain), an important archive for understanding long-term interactions between dynamic littoral ecosystems and human management. Combining geochemistry, mineralogy, ostracods, diatoms, pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal and archaeo-historical datasets we reconstruct: 1) the transition of the lagoon from a marine to a marginal environment between ~3150 cal BC to the 17th century AD; 2) fluctuations in salinity; and 3) natural and anthropogenic forces contributing to these changes. From the Late Neolithic to the Medieval period the lagoon ecosystem was driven by changing marine influence and the land was mainly exploited for grazing, with little evidence for impact on the natural woodland. Land-use exploitation adapted to natural coastal dynamics, with maximum marine flooding hampering agropastoral activities between ~1550 and ~150 cal BC. In contrast, societies actively controlled the lagoon dynamics and become a major agent of landscape transformation after the Medieval period. The removal of littoral woodlands after the 8th century was followed by the expansion of agrarian and industrial activities. Regional mining and smelting activities polluted the lagoon with heavy metals from the ~11th century onwards. The expansion of the milling industry and of agricultural lands led to the channelization of the river Muga into the lagoon after ~1250 cal AD. This caused its transformation into a freshwater lake, increased nutrient load, and the infilling and drainage of a great part of the lagoon. By tracking the shift towards an anthropogenically-controlled system around ~750 yr ago, this study points out Mediterranean lagoons as ancient and heavily-modified systems, with anthropogenic impacts and controls covering multi-centennial and even millennial timescales. Finally, we contributed to the future construction of reliable seashell-based chronologies in NE Spain by calibrating the Banyuls-sur-Mer ΔR offset with ceramic imports from the Emporiae archaeological site.

Understanding the Impact of Anthropogenic and Environmental Changes on Dengue Fever Cases in Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Serman, E. A.; Couret, J.; Puggioni, G.; Ginsberg, H. S.

2016-12-01

Worldwide, there are an estimated 50-100 million cases of dengue fever each year, roughly 30 times the number of cases as 50 years ago. Dengue was introduced to Puerto Rico (PR) in 1963 and it has experienced epidemic activity ever since. There have been 4 large epidemics since 1990, the most recent in 2010 where almost 27,000 cases were reported. Vaccine development remains in the testing stages, and years away from mass distribution. Effective control thus depends on our understanding of the complex relationships between environmental and anthropogenic factors, mosquito vector ecology, and disease epidemiology. Dengue virus is primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which also carry the Zika virus, and humans in urban environments are their preferred hosts. The purpose of our analysis is to identify trends between anthropogenic and environmental changes and dengue fever cases in PR over the past 15 years. Data on housing and population density, percent impervious surface, and percent tree canopy at the municipality level were procured from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (MLRC) project, respectively. Land cover data from the National Land Cover Database, created by USGS and NOAA, as well as environmental data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), were also used. Smaller land cover and green space analysis studies have been performed for PR, but this is the first study to consider the island as a whole, and in six distinct regions, with regards to increases in dengue fever cases. The results from this study can be used to understand the effects of urbanization and climate change on vector-borne disease transmission in PR and to project the impact of growing sub-urban and urban areas on dengue cases in coming years. Our results could also be used to assess Dengue and Zika transmission in growing megacites of the world, where urban slums provide a favorable habitat for Ae. aegypti and foster efficient transmission patterns.

Coastal Evolution in a Mediterranean Microtidal Zone: Mid to Late Holocene Natural Dynamics and Human Management of the Castelló Lagoon, NE Spain

PubMed Central

Ejarque, Ana; Julià, Ramon; Reed, Jane M.; Mesquita-Joanes, Francesc; Marco-Barba, Javier; Riera, Santiago

2016-01-01

We present a palaeoenvironmental study of the Castelló lagoon (NE Spain), an important archive for understanding long-term interactions between dynamic littoral ecosystems and human management. Combining geochemistry, mineralogy, ostracods, diatoms, pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal and archaeo-historical datasets we reconstruct: 1) the transition of the lagoon from a marine to a marginal environment between ~3150 cal BC to the 17th century AD; 2) fluctuations in salinity; and 3) natural and anthropogenic forces contributing to these changes. From the Late Neolithic to the Medieval period the lagoon ecosystem was driven by changing marine influence and the land was mainly exploited for grazing, with little evidence for impact on the natural woodland. Land-use exploitation adapted to natural coastal dynamics, with maximum marine flooding hampering agropastoral activities between ~1550 and ~150 cal BC. In contrast, societies actively controlled the lagoon dynamics and become a major agent of landscape transformation after the Medieval period. The removal of littoral woodlands after the 8th century was followed by the expansion of agrarian and industrial activities. Regional mining and smelting activities polluted the lagoon with heavy metals from the ~11th century onwards. The expansion of the milling industry and of agricultural lands led to the channelization of the river Muga into the lagoon after ~1250 cal AD. This caused its transformation into a freshwater lake, increased nutrient load, and the infilling and drainage of a great part of the lagoon. By tracking the shift towards an anthropogenically-controlled system around ~750 yr ago, this study points out Mediterranean lagoons as ancient and heavily-modified systems, with anthropogenic impacts and controls covering multi-centennial and even millennial timescales. Finally, we contributed to the future construction of reliable seashell-based chronologies in NE Spain by calibrating the Banyuls-sur-Mer ΔR offset with ceramic imports from the Emporiae archaeological site. PMID:27177040

Human impact on sediment fluxes within the Blue Nile and Atbara River basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balthazar, Vincent; Vanacker, Veerle; Girma, Atkilt; Poesen, Jean; Golla, Semunesh

2013-01-01

A regional assessment of the spatial variability in sediment yields allows filling the gap between detailed, process-based understanding of erosion at field scale and empirical sediment flux models at global scale. In this paper, we focus on the intrabasin variability in sediment yield within the Blue Nile and Atbara basins as biophysical and anthropogenic factors are presumably acting together to accelerate soil erosion. The Blue Nile and Atbara River systems are characterized by an important spatial variability in sediment fluxes, with area-specific sediment yield (SSY) values ranging between 4 and 4935 t/km2/y. Statistical analyses show that 41% of the observed variation in SSY can be explained by remote sensing proxy data of surface vegetation cover, rainfall intensity, mean annual temperature, and human impact. The comparison of a locally adapted regression model with global predictive sediment flux models indicates that global flux models such as the ART and BQART models are less suited to capture the spatial variability in area-specific sediment yields (SSY), but they are very efficient to predict absolute sediment yields (SY). We developed a modified version of the BQART model that estimates the human influence on sediment yield based on a high resolution composite measure of local human impact (human footprint index) instead of countrywide estimates of GNP/capita. Our modified version of the BQART is able to explain 80% of the observed variation in SY for the Blue Nile and Atbara basins and thereby performs only slightly less than locally adapted regression models.

Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Aerosol Emission Scenarios on Hydrology in the Mekong Basins and their Effects on Irrigation and Hydropower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, L. K.; Wang, C.

2016-12-01

Water distribution is closely linked to food and energy security. Aerosol emissions affect cloud properties, as well as atmospheric stability, changing the distribution of precipitation. These changes in precipitation causes changes in water availability, affecting food production and energy generation. These impacts are especially important in Southeast Asia, which uses up to 90% of their water supply for irrigation. In addition, the Mekong river, the largest inland fishery in the world, has 30,000MW of hydropower potential in its lower reaches alone. Modelling the impacts of these anthropogenic emission scenarios will allow us to better understand their downstream effects on hydrology, and any potential feedbacks it may have on future aerosol emissions. In the first step, we run the WRF model using FNL reanlaysis data from 2014 and 2015 to generate the WRF-hydro model forcing inputs. We then run the WRF-hydro model and compare the output with current measurements of soil moisture, river flow, and precipitation. Secondly, we run the WRF-Chem model with various anthropogenic emission scenarios and put the results through the WRF-hydro model to determine the impact of these emission scenarios on soil moisture and river flow. The scenarios include enhanced anthropogenic emissions in Asia, anologous to widespread adoption of coal burning as an energy source in Asia. Anthropogenic emissions have the potential to affect energy policy in countries affected by these emissions. When hydropower generation is affected by changes in precipitation, the affected countries will have to switch to alternative sources of fuel to meet their energy needs. These sources typically result in changes in anthropogenic aerosol emisssions, especially if coal is used as an alternative source of energy.

Weekly Oscillation of Daily Climatology of Air Temperature: Implication for Anthropogenic Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, S.; Wang, K.

2016-12-01

During national holiday and weekend, human activity and anthropogenic emission are expected to be much less than those during workday. Therefore, the contrast of environmental factors (i.e., air temperature and air quality) between national holiday (or weekend) and workday has been attributed to anthropogenic impact. For example, daily maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and mean (Tmean) air temperatures during the Chinese Spring Festival holiday were found to be 0. 6°C less than those of nearby workdays. We evaluated the contrasts using daily meteorological observations collected at 2479 stations in China from 1961 to 2015. The contrasts were evaluated with two methods. The first directly compared air temperatures between Chinese Spring Festival holiday and nearby workdays. The second first composited a daily climatology of air temperatures centered on the first day of Chinese Spring Festival holiday, and the seasonal cycles of air temperatures were then removed using polynomial regressions. The average of the derived daily deviation of air temperatures can be regarded as anthropogenic impact of Chinese Spring Festival holiday. We found that these two methods obtained nearly the same results. However, we found that the so-called anthropogenic impact during Chinese Spring Festival was not unique because the daily deviations of air temperatures had obvious weekly oscillations. The daily deviations of air temperature had periods of 7 days and 9 days, which explain 60% of the variance of daily deviations of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean. These results indicate that the so-called anthropogenic impacts are primarily caused by natural variability, i.e., weekly oscillations of the air temperatures. This study also has great implication for the studies on weekend effect of the environmental factors.

The Role of Anthropogenic Activity and Climate on δ15N Values of Cave Bat Guano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cleary, D. M.; Onac, B. P.; Forray, F. L.; Wynn, J. G.

2016-12-01

Interest in the use of bat guano, a paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental resource, has rapidly increased over the past decade. However, to this point the utility of the δ15N values of guano as a potential proxy remains poorly understood. In contrast to the preservation of the original carbon isotopic composition of guano, δ15N values have the potential to be altered as a result of processes of nitrogen (N) cycling such as denitrification. However, the probability of N loss is relatively diminished in younger guano. Here we present a 1.5 m guano core from Zidită Cave in western Romania that began accumulating at ca. 913 ± 30 yr BP. To determine the utility of N isotopes in guano studies, the δ15N time-series was compared to δ13C time series and pollen records of the same core to determine if the environmental impact (pollen) or water availability (δ13C values) has an effect on N cycling. Unlike to previous guano studies, the N content in the core is nearly constant (%N > 9 %) for over 1 m of the core, indicating limited diagenesis. Although major changes in anthropogenic activities may have influenced some δ15N variation, some inconsistencies suggest this is not the primary controller. However, the correlation between δ15N and δ13C values (p < 0.01) in this C3-plant dominated ecosystem has been interpreted to reflect variation driven largely by water availability. Wetter periods indicated by lower δ13C values correspond with higher δ15N values of guano. These results indicate that when the area surrounding the Zidită Cave receives an increase in rainfall the N-cycle becomes more open with a decreased rate of denitrification or other processes that accumulate 15N in the soil reservoir. A 10-year instrumental precipitation dataset agrees with the relationship found between δ13C and δ15N time series. These results suggest that guano δ15N values from Zidită Cave are a suitable proxy record of climate for this type of system, but we emphasize that this coupling of processes may not be universal. Over the past 60 years the δ15N values have decreased by 5.5 ‰, indicating that the N-cycle has been approaching a more conservative state in response to drier conditions. From this study it is clear that the potential utility of δ15N of guano (climate and state of the N-cycle) may have previously been overlooked.

Environmental drivers of Yersinia pestis - a holistic perspective on Medieval Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buentgen, U.

2009-09-01

Recent studies have indicated some evidence for a link between climate variability and plague (Yersinia pestis) dynamics in Central Asia and during most of the 20th century. An intensification of plague outbreaks via population peaks in its host-species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) and its fleas (Xenopsylla spp) has been found to occur during periods of warmer spring and wetter summer climate. This is important, as human epidemics of plague ultimately originate in its wildlife reservoirs. Given the fact that Medieval Europe was strongly devastated by the Black Death - the second pandemic after the Justinian plague ~540AD, and that the worldwide highest quality and quantity of climate proxy data exist for Europe, we here present, for the first time, a holistic approach to enhance understanding of the mid-14th century Black Death. This is of primary importance not only for medical/epidemiological research, but also for other scientific communities, because the Black Death disease had a sustainable impact on the socio-economic development, culture, art, and religion of Medieval Europe. Palaeoclimatic records of annually resolved European temperature and drought variability are compiled, a high-resolution time-series of anthropogenic deforestation is utilized, documentary archives of socio-economic relevance are considered, and the animal-born plague bacterium is placed in the ecological web. Considering the European/North Atlantic sector and the last millennium, periods of high solar radiation and reduced volcanic activity shift the North Atlantic Oscillation into a generally positive mode, yielding towards warmer temperatures and an intensification of the hydrological cycle. We now argue that increased internal circulation resulted in an overall wetter and warmer climate ~1350AD, which most likely was able to promote the prevalence of existing and widespread Yersinia pestis bacillus. Resulting outbreaks of bubonic plague could have been also supported by the high degree of anthropogenic deforestation of the continent (providing suitable habitats for wildlife rodent communities), prolonged famine due to crop failure (decreasing human health conditions), and a severe Central European earthquake during the mid-14th century (increasing socio-economic vulnerability). This concert together with enhanced summer humidity most likely contributed towards the enormous dispersal rate of the Black Death. Proxy reconstructions, model simulations, and eco-epidemiological findings additionally underline the archaeological hypothesis that the Black Death originated in Central Asia. Moreover, it is suggest that the frequency of human primary infection and, ultimately, the probability of epidemics, respond to climatic forcing on plague reservoir dynamics. Projected climate and land use land cover change will further complicate this relationship.

Impact of aerosols and clouds on decadal trends in all-sky solar radiation over the Netherlands (1966-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Reinout; Brandsma, Theo; Pier Siebesma, A.

2017-07-01

A 50-year hourly data set of global shortwave radiation, cloudiness and visibility over the Netherlands was used to quantify the contribution of aerosols and clouds to the trend in yearly-averaged all-sky radiation (1.81 ± 1.07 W m-2 decade-1). Yearly-averaged clear-sky and cloud-base radiation data show large year-to-year fluctuations caused by yearly changes in the occurrence of clear and cloudy periods and cannot be used for trend analysis. Therefore, proxy clear-sky and cloud-base radiations were computed. In a proxy analysis hourly radiation data falling within a fractional cloudiness value are fitted by monotonic increasing functions of solar zenith angle and summed over all zenith angles occurring in a single year to produce an average. Stable trends can then be computed from the proxy radiation data. A functional expression is derived whereby the trend in proxy all-sky radiation is a linear combination of trends in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky radiation and proxy cloud-base radiation. Trends (per decade) in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky and proxy cloud-base radiation were, respectively, 0.0097 ± 0.0062, 2.78 ± 0.50 and 3.43 ± 1.17 W m-2. To add up to the all-sky radiation the three trends have weight factors, namely the difference between the mean cloud-base and clear-sky radiation, the clear-sky fraction and the fractional cloudiness, respectively. Our analysis clearly demonstrates that all three components contribute significantly to the observed trend in all-sky radiation. Radiative transfer calculations using the aerosol optical thickness derived from visibility observations indicate that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI) is a strong candidate to explain the upward trend in the clear-sky radiation. Aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) may have some impact on cloud-base radiation, but it is suggested that decadal changes in cloud thickness and synoptic-scale changes in cloud amount also play an important role.

Multi-scale drivers of spatial variation in old-growth forest carbon density disentangled with Lidar and an individual-based landscape model

Treesearch

Rupert Seidl; Thomas A. Spies; Werner Rammer; E. Ashley Steel; Robert J. Pabst; Keith. Olsen

2012-01-01

Forest ecosystems are the most important terrestrial carbon (C) storage globally, and presently mitigate anthropogenic climate change by acting as a large and persistent sink for atmospheric CO2. Yet, forest C density varies greatly in space, both globally and at stand and landscape levels. Understanding the multi-scale drivers of this variation...

Coral microbial community dynamics in response to anthropogenic impacts near a major city in the central Red Sea.

PubMed

Ziegler, Maren; Roik, Anna; Porter, Adam; Zubier, Khalid; Mudarris, Mohammed S; Ormond, Rupert; Voolstra, Christian R

2016-04-30

Coral-associated bacteria play an increasingly recognized part in coral health. We investigated the effect of local anthropogenic impacts on coral microbial communities on reefs near Jeddah, the largest city on the Saudi Arabian coast of the central Red Sea. We analyzed the bacterial community structure of water and corals (Pocillopora verrucosa and Acropora hemprichii) at sites that were relatively unimpacted, exposed to sedimentation & local sewage, or in the discharge area of municipal wastewaters. Coral microbial communities were significantly different at impacted sites: in both corals the main symbiotic taxon decreased in abundance. In contrast, opportunistic bacterial families, such as e.g. Vibrionaceae and Rhodobacteraceae, were more abundant in corals at impacted sites. In conclusion, microbial community response revealed a measurable footprint of anthropogenic impacts to coral ecosystems close to Jeddah, even though the corals appeared visually healthy. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Asian anthropogenic dust and its climate effect (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Liu, J.; Chen, B.

2013-12-01

Anthropogenic dust originates mainly from areas of localized human disturbance, such as traffic-on-roads, agricultural fields, grazing, military installations, construction sites, and off-road vehicle areas. To understand historical and possible future changes in dust emissions, the percentage of atmospheric dust load originating from anthropogenic source and its distribution must be quantified. CALIPSO lidar, which shoots a laser into the atmosphere, provides new insight into the detection of anthropogenic dust emission. Here, we present the distribution of Asian anthropogenic dust emissions and its relation to human activity by using CALIPSO lidar measurements. We found that the local anthropogenic dust aerosols account for significant portion of the total dust burden in the atmosphere. The anthropogenic dust emissions mainly occur over the heavy human activity and poor ecosystem region, such as semi-arid region. The impact of Asian anthropogenic dust on regional climate will also be discussed in this talk.

Metabarcoding monitoring analysis: the pros and cons of using co-extracted environmental DNA and RNA data to assess offshore oil production impacts on benthic communities.

PubMed

Laroche, Olivier; Wood, Susanna A; Tremblay, Louis A; Lear, Gavin; Ellis, Joanne I; Pochon, Xavier

2017-01-01

Sequencing environmental DNA (eDNA) is increasingly being used as an alternative to traditional morphological-based identification to characterize biological assemblages and monitor anthropogenic impacts in marine environments. Most studies only assess eDNA which, compared to eRNA, can persist longer in the environment after cell death. Therefore, eRNA may provide a more immediate census of the environment due to its relatively weaker stability, leading some researchers to advocate for the use of eRNA as an additional, or perhaps superior proxy for portraying ecological changes. A variety of pre-treatment techniques for screening eDNA and eRNA derived operational taxonomic units (OTUs) have been employed prior to statistical analyses, including removing singleton taxa (i.e., OTUs found only once) and discarding those not present in both eDNA and eRNA datasets. In this study, we used bacterial (16S ribosomal RNA gene) and eukaryotic (18S ribosomal RNA gene) eDNA- and eRNA-derived data from benthic communities collected at increasing distances along a transect from an oil production platform (Taranaki, New Zealand). Macro-infauna (visual classification of benthic invertebrates) and physico-chemical data were analyzed in parallel. We tested the effect of removing singleton taxa, and removing taxa not present in the eDNA and eRNA libraries from the same environmental sample (trimmed by shared OTUs), by comparing the impact of the oil production platform on alpha- and beta-diversity of the eDNA/eRNA-based biological assemblages, and by correlating these to the morphologically identified macro-faunal communities and the physico-chemical data. When trimmed by singletons, presence/absence information from eRNA data represented the best proxy to detect changes on species diversity for both bacteria and eukaryotes. However, assessment of quantitative beta-diversity from read abundance information of bacteria eRNA did not, contrary to eDNA, reveal any impact from the oil production activity. Overall, the data appeared more robust when trimmed by shared OTUs, showing a greater effect of the platform on alpha- and beta-diversity. Trimming by shared OTUs likely removes taxa derived from legacy DNA and technical artefacts introduced through reverse transcriptase, polymerase-chain-reaction and sequencing. Findings from our scoping study suggest that metabarcoding-based biomonitoring surveys should, if funds, time and expertise allow, be assessed using both eDNA and eRNA products.

Metabarcoding monitoring analysis: the pros and cons of using co-extracted environmental DNA and RNA data to assess offshore oil production impacts on benthic communities

PubMed Central

Wood, Susanna A.; Tremblay, Louis A.; Lear, Gavin; Ellis, Joanne I.; Pochon, Xavier

2017-01-01

Sequencing environmental DNA (eDNA) is increasingly being used as an alternative to traditional morphological-based identification to characterize biological assemblages and monitor anthropogenic impacts in marine environments. Most studies only assess eDNA which, compared to eRNA, can persist longer in the environment after cell death. Therefore, eRNA may provide a more immediate census of the environment due to its relatively weaker stability, leading some researchers to advocate for the use of eRNA as an additional, or perhaps superior proxy for portraying ecological changes. A variety of pre-treatment techniques for screening eDNA and eRNA derived operational taxonomic units (OTUs) have been employed prior to statistical analyses, including removing singleton taxa (i.e., OTUs found only once) and discarding those not present in both eDNA and eRNA datasets. In this study, we used bacterial (16S ribosomal RNA gene) and eukaryotic (18S ribosomal RNA gene) eDNA- and eRNA-derived data from benthic communities collected at increasing distances along a transect from an oil production platform (Taranaki, New Zealand). Macro-infauna (visual classification of benthic invertebrates) and physico-chemical data were analyzed in parallel. We tested the effect of removing singleton taxa, and removing taxa not present in the eDNA and eRNA libraries from the same environmental sample (trimmed by shared OTUs), by comparing the impact of the oil production platform on alpha- and beta-diversity of the eDNA/eRNA-based biological assemblages, and by correlating these to the morphologically identified macro-faunal communities and the physico-chemical data. When trimmed by singletons, presence/absence information from eRNA data represented the best proxy to detect changes on species diversity for both bacteria and eukaryotes. However, assessment of quantitative beta-diversity from read abundance information of bacteria eRNA did not, contrary to eDNA, reveal any impact from the oil production activity. Overall, the data appeared more robust when trimmed by shared OTUs, showing a greater effect of the platform on alpha- and beta-diversity. Trimming by shared OTUs likely removes taxa derived from legacy DNA and technical artefacts introduced through reverse transcriptase, polymerase-chain-reaction and sequencing. Findings from our scoping study suggest that metabarcoding-based biomonitoring surveys should, if funds, time and expertise allow, be assessed using both eDNA and eRNA products. PMID:28533985

Setting temporal baselines for biodiversity: the limits of available monitoring data for capturing the full impact of anthropogenic pressures

PubMed Central

Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Henle, Klaus; Titeux, Nicolas; Brotons, Lluís; Brummitt, Neil A.; Schmeller, Dirk S.

2017-01-01

Temporal baselines are needed for biodiversity, in order for the change in biodiversity to be measured over time, the targets for biodiversity conservation to be defined and conservation progress to be evaluated. Limited biodiversity information is widely recognized as a major barrier for identifying temporal baselines, although a comprehensive quantitative assessment of this is lacking. Here, we report on the temporal baselines that could be drawn from biodiversity monitoring schemes in Europe and compare those with the rise of important anthropogenic pressures. Most biodiversity monitoring schemes were initiated late in the 20th century, well after anthropogenic pressures had already reached half of their current magnitude. Setting temporal baselines from biodiversity monitoring data would therefore underestimate the full range of impacts of major anthropogenic pressures. In addition, biases among taxa and organization levels provide a truncated picture of biodiversity over time. These limitations need to be explicitly acknowledged when designing management strategies and policies as they seriously constrain our ability to identify relevant conservation targets aimed at restoring or reversing biodiversity losses. We discuss the need for additional research efforts beyond standard biodiversity monitoring to reconstruct the impacts of major anthropogenic pressures and to identify meaningful temporal baselines for biodiversity. PMID:28134310

How are interannual modes of variability IOD, ENSO, SAM, AMO excited by natural and anthropogenic forcing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Nicola; Marotzke, Jochem

2017-04-01

Natural climate variability is found in observations, paleo-proxies, and climate models. Such climate variability can be intrinsic internal variability or externally forced, for example by changes in greenhouse gases or large volcanic eruptions. There are still questions concerning how external forcing, both natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions and solar variability) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases and ozone) may excite both interannual modes of variability in the climate system. This project aims to address some of these problems, utilising the large ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR climate model. In this study we investigate the statistics of four modes of interannual variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the 100-member ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR the statistical properties of these modes (amplitude and standard deviation) can be assessed over time. Here we compare the properties in the pre-industrial control run, historical run and future scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP2.6) and present preliminary results.

The loss of behavioral diversity as a consequence of anthropogenic habitat disturbance: the social interactions of black howler monkeys.

PubMed

Negrín, Ariadna Rangel; Fuentes, Alejandro Coyohua; Espinosa, Domingo Canales; Dias, Pedro Américo Duarte

2016-01-01

To date, no study has investigated how human disturbance affects the size of the behavioral repertoire of a species. The aim of the present study is to illustrate how measurement of behavioral diversity assists in documenting biodiversity loss, demonstrating that human disturbance has a negative effect on behavioral diversity. We studied the social interaction repertoire of 41 adult black howler monkeys (Alouatta pigra) belonging to 10 groups living in different habitats in Campeche (Mexico), and related repertoire size to a proxy of human-induced habitat disturbance, habitat size. The social interaction repertoire of groups living in habitats with higher human-induced disturbance included lower number of behavioral types, and in particular, fewer energy-demanding behaviors. Thus, in addition to a loss in biodiversity, measured through organismal diversity, the disturbance of black howler monkeys' habitats is accompanied by a loss in behavioral diversity. We believe that the study of behavioral diversity as an element of biodiversity will become an increasingly important research topic, as it will improve our understanding of the behavioral strategies displayed by wildlife facing anthropogenic disturbance.

Benchmarking Anthropogenic Heavy Metals Emissions: Australian and Global Urban Environmental Health Risk Based Indicators of Sustainability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dejkovski, Nick

2016-01-01

In Australia, the impacts of urbanisation and human activity are evident in increased waste generation and the emissions of metals into the air, land or water. Metals that have accumulated in urban soils almost exclusively anthropogenically can persist for long periods in the environment. Anthropogenic waste emissions containing heavy metals are a…

Impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosols on stratocumulus and precipitation in the Southeast Pacific: a regional modelling study using WRF-Chem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Q.; Gustafson, W. I.; Fast, J. D.

2012-09-28

Cloud-system resolving simulations with the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model are used to quantify the relative impacts of regional anthropogenic and oceanic emissions on changes in aerosol properties, cloud macro- and microphysics, and cloud radiative forcing over the Southeast Pacific (SEP) during the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) (15 October–16 November 2008). Two distinct regions are identified. The near-coast polluted region is characterized by low surface precipitation rates, the strong suppression of non-sea-salt particle activation due to sea-salt particles, a predominant albedo effect in aerosol indirect effects, and limited impact of aerosols associated withmore » anthropogenic emissions on clouds. Opposite sensitivities to natural marine and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations are seen in cloud properties (e.g., cloud optical depth and cloud-top and cloud-base heights), precipitation, and the top-of-atmosphere and surface shortwave fluxes over this region. The relatively clean remote region is characterized by large contributions of aerosols from non-regional sources (lateral boundaries) and much stronger drizzle at the surface. Under a scenario of five-fold increase in regional anthropogenic emissions, this relatively clean region shows large cloud responses, for example, a 13% increase in cloud-top height and a 9% increase in albedo in response to a moderate increase (25% of the reference case) in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration. The reduction of precipitation due to this increase in anthropogenic aerosols more than doubles the aerosol lifetime in the clean marine boundary layer. Therefore, the aerosol impacts on precipitation are amplified by the positive feedback of precipitation on aerosol, which ultimately alters the cloud micro- and macro-physical properties, leading to strong aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. The high sensitivity is also related to an increase in cloud-top entrainment rate (by 16% at night) due to the increased anthropogenic aerosols. The simulated aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions due to the increased anthropogenic aerosols have a stronger diurnal cycle over the clean region compared to the near-coast region with stronger interactions at night. During the day, solar heating results in more frequent decoupling of the cloud and sub-cloud layers, thinner clouds, reduced precipitation, and reduced sensitivity to the increase in anthropogenic emissions. This study shows the importance of natural aerosols in accurately quantifying anthropogenic forcing within a regional modeling framework. Finally, the results of this study also imply that the energy balance perturbations from increased anthropogenic emissions are larger in the more susceptible clean environment than in already polluted environment and are larger than possible from the first indirect effect alone.« less

Multi parametrical indicator test for urban wastewater influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humer, Franko; Weiss, Stefan; Reinnicke, Sandra; Clara, Manfred; Grath, Johannes; Windhofer, Georg

2013-04-01

Austria's drinking water is abstracted from groundwater. While 50 % of the Austrian population are supplied with spring water, the other 50 % get their drinking water from groundwater supplies, in part from enormous quaternary valley and basin deposits, subjected to intensive use by population, industry, agriculture and traffic/transport. Due to protected areas around drinking water wells and springs, there is no treatment necessary in most cases. Water bodies, however, can be affected by different pathways from natural, industrial and urban sources. Identification of anthropogenic sources is paramount for taking appropriate measures to safeguard the quality of drinking water supply. Common parameters like boron are widely used as tracers indicating anthropogenic impacts (e.g. wastewater contamination of groundwater systems). Unfortunately application of these conventional indicators is often limited due to high dilution. Another application where common parameters have their limits is the identification and quantification of the diffuse nitrogen input to water by the stable isotopes of nitrogen and oxygen in nitrate. Without any additional tracers the source distinction of nitrate from manure or waste water is still difficult. Even the application of boron isotopes can in some cases not avoid ambiguous interpretation. Therefore the Umweltbundesamt (Environment Agency Austria) developed a multi parametrical indicator test which shall allow for identification and quantification of anthropogenic pollutions. The test aims at analysing eight target substances which are well known to occur in wastewater: Acesulfame and sucralose (two artificial, calorie-free sweeteners), benzotriazole and tolyltriazole (two industrial chemicals/corrosion inhibitors), metoprolol, sotalol, carbamazepine and the metabolite 10,11-Dihydro-10,11-dihydroxycarbamazepin (pharmaceuticals). These substances are polar and degradation in the aquatic system by microbiological processes is not suspected. Moreover, they do not occur naturally which make them to ideal tracer substances. Analysis is performed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography with mass selective detection (UPLC-MSMS). Samples are enriched by solid phase extraction before. The test is able to indicate an 0.1 % entry of municipal wastewater into the analysed water. Results of application in practise and advantages of the urban wastewater indicator test are discussed.

HD-SP2 Measurements of Black Carbon Containing Aerosols in South Korea during KORUS-AQ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, K. D.; Perring, A. E.; Ahn, J.; Schwarz, J. P.

2016-12-01

Black carbon (BC) is a light-absorbing aerosol with strong anthropogenic sources that has important climatic and health impacts, both regionally and globally. Materials internally mixed with BC, including water, affect its optical properties and lifetime in the atmosphere, and thus are critical to determining BC's ultimate impacts. The NASA KORUS-AQ campaign during the spring/summer of 2016 was a multi-platform research campaign focused on air quality over South Korea, in a region with particularly high BC emissions and loadings. The NOAA Humidified-Dual Single Particle Soot Photometer (HD-SP2) was deployed on the NASA DC-8 aircraft to measure the optical size and refractory BC content of individual particles under dry and humidified conditions as well as the BC mass mixing ratio. We focus on evaluating BC MMR in the free troposphere up to 400 hPa in the context of previous measurements; assessing the optical impacts of observed internal mixtures with BC at different times of day; and evaluating the contribution of water uptake on BC absorption and atmospheric lifetime over Korea in ambient conditions.

Pedo-sedimentary constituents as paleoenvironmental proxies in the Sudano-Sahelian belt during the Late Quaternary (southwestern Chad Basin)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz, Nathalie; Dietrich, Fabienne; Sebag, David; King, Georgina E.; Valla, Pierre G.; Durand, Alain; Garcin, Yannick; de Saulieu, Geoffroy; Deschamps, Pierre; Herman, Frédéric; Verrecchia, Eric P.

2018-07-01

Climate and environmental changes since the Last Glacial Maximum in the tropical zone of West Africa are usually inferred from marine and continental records. In this study, the potential of carbonate pedo-sedimentary geosystems, i.e. Vertisol relics, to record paleoenvironmental changes in the southwestern part of Chad Basin are investigated. A multi-dating approach was applied on different pedogenic organo-mineral constituents. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating was performed on the soil K-rich feldspars and was combined with radiocarbon dating on both the inorganic (14Cinorg) and organic carbon (14Corg) soil fractions. Three main pedo-sedimentary processes were assessed over the last 20 ka BP: 1) the soil parent material deposition, from 18 ka to 12 ka BP (OSL), 2) the soil organic matter integration, from 11 cal ka to 8 cal ka BP (14Corg), and 3) the pedogenic carbonate nodule precipitation, from 7 cal ka to 5 cal ka BP (14Cinorg). These processes correlate well with the Chad Basin stratigraphy and West African records and are shown to be related to significant changes in the soil water balance responding to the evolution of continental hydrology during the Late Quaternary. The last phase affecting the Vertisol relics is the increase of erosion, which is hypothesized to be due to a decrease of the vegetation cover triggered by (i) the onset of drier conditions, possibly strengthened by (ii) anthropogenic pressure. Archaeological data from Far North Cameroon and northern Nigeria, as well as sedimentation times in Lake Tilla (northeastern Nigeria), were used to test these relationships. The increase of erosion is suggested to possibly occur between c. 3 cal ka and 1 cal ka BP. Finally, satellite images revealed similar geosystems all along the Sudano-Sahelian belt, and initial 14Cinorg ages of the samples collected in four sites gave similar ages to those reported in this study. Consequently, the carbonate pedo-sedimentary geosystems are valuable continental paleoenvironmental archives and soil water balance proxies of the semiarid tropics of West Africa.

A comprehensive reconstruction of Alaskan Arctic fire history over the last 30,000 years as inferred from a novel multi-proxy suite of organic geochemical and paleoecological methodology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vachula, R. S.; Longo, W. M.; Reinert, S. T.; Russell, J. M.; Huang, Y.

2016-12-01

The frequency and spatial extent of tundra fires have increased contemporaneously with anthropogenic climate change in the Arctic. These fires threaten the stability of permafrost carbon stores, subsistence resources, and ecosystem nutrient cycling and are thus important components of rapidly changing Arctic systems. Future projections of tundra fire rely upon reconstructions of fire regime and ecosystem response to climatic variations of the past. High resolution lake sediment records from Northern Alaska have facilitated important insights into the dynamic relationships between fire, climate, and vegetation throughout the Holocene. However, our understanding of how fire regimes in this region have responded to climate on glacial-interglacial timescales remains speculative. We present a 30,000 year fire history reconstruction from Lake E5, a small lake in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range. Our reconstruction, inferred from sedimentary charcoal particles, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and bulk sediment Black Carbon (BC) content, offers unique insights into how Arctic terrestrial ecosystems of the past and present have interacted with climate on glacial-interglacial time scales via the mechanism of fire. This unique approach pairs traditional (charcoal) and novel (PAHs and BC) proxies and thereby (1) allows for a simultaneous interpretation of local and regional fire history (2) quantifies the abundance of all sizes of all byproducts of incomplete combustion and (3) gains insights into relative changes in combustion temperature, fire severity, and fuel type. While traditional methods would focus on a narrow range of the size spectrum of the physical and chemical byproducts of fire (charcoal particles >0.15 mm), the suite of methods used in this study facilitates a more holistic and comprehensive fire history reconstruction from the E5 sediment record. Results indicate that moisture and vegetation variations were likely the primary drivers of fire in this region over the last 30,000 years. Furthermore, sea level changes and related shifts in atmospheric circulation likely influenced fire regimes in this area prior to the Holocene.

Recent Increase in North Atlantic Jet Variability Emerges from Three-Century Long Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, V.; Babst, F.; Meko, M. D.

2017-12-01

The position and strength of the Northern Hemisphere polar jet stream are important modulators of mid-latitude weather extremes and their societal, ecosystem, and economic impacts. A recent increase in mid-latitude extreme events highlights the need for long-term records of jet stream variability to put recent trends in a historical perspective and to investigate non-linear relationships between jet stream variability, mid-latitude extreme weather events, and anthropogenic climate change. In Europe, anomalies of the North Atlantic Jet (NAJ) create a summer temperature seesaw between the British Isles (BRIT) and the northeastern Mediterranean (NEMED). We combined summer temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from BRIT and NEMED to reconstruct inter-annual variability in the latitudinal position of the August NAJ back to 1725 CE. The two temperature proxies BRIT and NEMED counter-correlate significantly over their period of overlap, thus illustrate the temperature dipole generated by anomalous NAJ positions, and combined explain close to 40% of the variance in the August NAJ target (Fig. 1). The NAJ reconstruction is dominated by sub-decadal variability and no significant long-term poleward or equatorward trends were detected. However, the NAJ time series shows a steep and unprecedented increase in variance starting in the late 1960s. Enhanced late 20th century variance has also been detected in climate and ecosystem dynamics in the Central and Northeast Pacific, which are associated with the latitudinal position of the North Pacific Jet. Our combined results suggest a late 20th century increase in jet stream latitudinal variance in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific Basin that can be indicative of enhanced jet stream waviness and that coincides with a recent increase in quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). Our results show a late 20th century amplification of meridional flow in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic Basin and support more sinuous jet stream patterns and QRA as potential dynamic pathways for Arctic warming to influence midlatitude weather. Moreover, the synchronization of variance increases between the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins in the late 20th century is unprecedented over the last 290 years and strongly suggests an impact of anthropogenic warming.

Temporal and spatial variability of chemical and isotopic composition of soil solutions from cambisols - field study and experiments.

PubMed

Schön, Walter; Mittermayr, Florian; Leis, Albrecht; Mischak, Irene; Dietzel, Martin

2016-12-01

The chemical and isotopic composition of soil solutions is highly relevant for environmental and forensic tasks. We investigated interstitial solutions from soil horizons of three cambisols in Styria (Austria). The soils consisted mainly of quartz, feldspar and clay minerals with a vertical variability. Two soil solution fractions from meso-, macro- and micropores (m) and micropores only (μ) were extracted at two subsequent hydraulic pressure steps corresponding to matrix potentials of up to pF 5.43 and from 5.43 to 5.73, respectively. While solute concentrations indicated diverse distribution in soil solution fractions m and μ, heavy stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes of H 2 O (-92.5‰<δ 2 H<-34.4‰; -11.9‰<δ 18 O<-4.0‰, VSMOW) are clearly enriched in the μ versus m fractions. Principal component analysis on the hydrochemical data set indicates that the intensity of the overall silicate weathering is higher in autumn versus spring, whereas the anthropogenic impact on weathering behaves inversely. The anthropogenic impact is related to seasonal variability of nitrification of N-fertilizers. In consequence of evaluated signals for overall silicate weathering about three-fourths of the soil solutions sampled in autumn indicated elevated total dissolved solid concentration vs. those in spring accompanied with washing out solutes from the soil cover following precipitation events in autumn before sampling. Isotopic shift of soil solutions from the local meteoric water line in spring obviously followed an evaporation trend because of less precipitation and high evaporation before sampling. Experimentally simulated evaporation of soil samples confirmed the observed isotopic evaporation trend. Wetting experiments indicated the infiltration of water within minutes into the micropores of the soils. Exchange of water molecules between micro-, meso- and macropores is an almost instantaneous process and soil solutions in micropores are not as isolated from the soil water system as it was formerly suggested, e.g. for plant uptake. Highly dynamic and complex mechanisms in the gas-water-solid system of soils have to be considered for the application of elemental and isotope proxies related to environmental, forensic and agricultural tasks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detecting Anthropogenic and Climate Change Induced Land Cover and Land Use Change in the Vicinity of an Oil/gas Facility in Northwestern Siberia, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Q.; Shiklomanov, N. I.; Streletskiy, D. A.; Engstrom, R.; Epstein, H. E.

2015-12-01

Arctic ecosystems are changing dramatically due to changes in climate, vegetation and human activities. Northwestern Siberia is one of the regions which has been undergoing various land cover and land use changes associated primarily with animal husbandry and oil/gas development. These changes have been exacerbated by warming climatic conditions over the last fifty years. In this study, we investigated land cover and land use changes associated with oil and gas development southeast of the city of Nadym within the context of climate change based on multi-source and multi-temporal remote sensing imagery. The impacts of land use on surface vegetation, radiation, and hydrological properties were evaluated using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), albedo and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). The results from a comparison between high spatial resolution imagery acquired in1968 and 2006 indicate that the vegetation cover was reduced in areas disturbed by oil and gas development. Vegetation cover increased in natural landscapes over the same period,. Water logging was found along the linear structures near the oil/gas development, while in natural landscapes the drying of thermokarst lakes is evident due to permafrost degradation. Derived indices suggest that the direct impacts associated with infrastructure development are mostly within 100 m distance from the disturbance source. While these impacts are rather localized they persist for decades despite partial recovery of vegetation after the initial disturbance.

From one to one million: How does community structure track disturbance across time and space?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, A. E.

2012-12-01

The rate and severity of disturbances to the biosphere have been increasing over the last millennium due in part to anthropogenic effects, and the results of these disturbances are of increasing interest to the scientific and public communities. This project examines the impact of acidification and global warming on communities across a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales in both modern and fossil systems. Twenty datasets were selected from published zoo- and phyto-plankton literature to represent a temporal and spatial gradient, from small lakes to the open ocean, and from one year to one million years. Each dataset is associated with a proxy for an environmental disturbance (isotopes, pH, sedimentology, etc.) and consists of 15-300 samples across the interval of disturbance. To test the biotic changes induced by disturbance, community structure is measured by quantifying species-abundance distributions using rank-abundance curves and ordinations. A community consists of the individuals present in a given location at a given time, and the relative abundance of different species serves as a proxy for resource-partitioning. Disturbances cause a change in resource-partitioning, either by changing resource availability or by removing/adding species which compete for those resources. Therefore, shifts in resource-partitioning resulting from disturbance can be tracked by changes in community composition. Prior to an environmental disturbance, communities typically consist of many species that evenly partition resources and thereby abundance. After a disturbance, communities are dominated by a few species that can tolerate or thrive in the new conditions. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling and Bray-Curtis polar ordinations reveal a progression from pre-disturbance communities, through the disturbance, and into the eventual recovery, which may or may not resemble the pre-disturbance communities. Larger disturbances (in terms of spatial extent or temporal duration) result in more extensive faunal turnover, thereby reducing the utility of ordinations that require at least some faunal similarity. Rank-abundance curves can be applied even in intervals of complete taxonomic turnover; curve shape is quantified by kurtosis, a statistical measure of whether a distribution is more (>3) or less (<3) peaked than a Gaussian distribution (kurtosis = 3). Rank-abundance curve kurtosis values are always greater than 3 for disturbed communities (n=20), and pre-disturbance and recovered communities generally range from 0 to 4. The average kurtosis for a pre-disturbance or recovered community is unique for each type of community (taxonomically or environmentally defined), requiring the establishment of a baseline for rank-abundance curve analysis. In each dataset, both rank-abundance curves and ordinations show a similar pattern of change in community structure during a disturbance. The rate and pattern of recovery varies relative to the spatial and temporal extent of the disturbance. The results of this study reveal that community structure is a useful measure of the impact of a disturbance, both in terms of the severity of the disturbance and in measuring the subsequent recovery. The methods and results of this research are applicable to multiple fields, from conservation biology to ecosystem health to paleoceanography and paleobiology.

Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-08-01

This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

Neither artificial light at night, anthropogenic noise nor distance from roads are associated with oxidative status of nestlings in an urban population of songbirds.

PubMed

Casasole, Giulia; Raap, Thomas; Costantini, David; AbdElgawad, Hamada; Asard, Han; Pinxten, Rianne; Eens, Marcel

2017-08-01

Increasing urbanization is responsible for road-related pollutants and causes an unprecedented increase in light and noise pollution, with potential detrimental effects for individual animals, communities and ecosystems. These stressors rarely act in isolation but studies dissecting the effects of these multiple stressors are lacking. Moreover, studies on urban stressors have mainly focused on adults, while exposure in early-life may be detrimental but is largely ignored. To fill this important knowledge gap, we studied if artificial light at night, anthropogenic noise and road-related pollution (using distance from roads as a proxy) explain variation in oxidative status in great tit nestlings (Parus major) in an urban population. Artificial light at night, anthropogenic noise and distance from roads were not associated with variation of the nine studied metrics of oxidative status (superoxide dismutase-SOD-, glutathione peroxidase-GPX, catalase-CAT-, non-enzymatic total antioxidant capacity-TAC-, reduced glutathione-GSH-, oxidized glutathione-GSSG-, ratio GSH/GSSG, protein carbonyls and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances-TBARS). Interestingly, for all oxidative status metrics, we found that there was more variation in oxidative status among individuals of the same nest compared to between different nests. We also showed an increase in protein carbonyls and a decrease of the ratio GSH/GSSG as the day advanced, and an increase of GPX when weather conditions deteriorated. Our study suggests that anthropogenic noise, artificial light at night and road-related pollution are not the most important sources of variation in oxidative status in great tit nestlings. It also highlights the importance of considering bleeding time and weather conditions in studies with free-living animals. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Multidecadal accumulation of anthropogenic and remineralized dissolved inorganic carbon along the Extended Ellett Line in the northeast Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humphreys, Matthew P.; Griffiths, Alex M.; Achterberg, Eric P.; Holliday, N. Penny; Rérolle, Victoire M. C.; Menzel Barraqueta, Jan-Lukas; Couldrey, Matthew P.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Hartman, Susan E.; Esposito, Mario; Boyce, Adrian J.

2016-02-01

Marine carbonate chemistry measurements have been carried out annually since 2009 during UK research cruises along the Extended Ellett Line (EEL), a hydrographic transect in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The EEL intersects several water masses that are key to the global thermohaline circulation, and therefore the cruises sample a region in which it is critical to monitor secular physical and biogeochemical changes. We have combined results from these EEL cruises with existing quality-controlled observational data syntheses to produce a hydrographic time series for the EEL from 1981 to 2013. This reveals multidecadal increases in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) throughout the water column, with a near-surface maximum rate of 1.80 ± 0.45 µmol kg-1 yr-1. Anthropogenic CO2 accumulation was assessed, using simultaneous changes in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and total alkalinity (TA) as proxies for the biogeochemical processes that influence DIC. The stable carbon isotope composition of DIC (δ13CDIC) was also determined and used as an independent test of our method. We calculated a volume-integrated anthropogenic CO2 accumulation rate of 2.8 ± 0.4 mg C m-3 yr-1 along the EEL, which is about double the global mean. The anthropogenic CO2 component accounts for only 31 ± 6% of the total DIC increase. The remainder is derived from increased organic matter remineralization, which we attribute to the lateral redistribution of water masses that accompanies subpolar gyre contraction. Output from a general circulation ecosystem model demonstrates that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the observations has not significantly biased our multidecadal rate of change calculations and indicates that the EEL observations have been tracking distal changes in the surrounding North Atlantic and Nordic Seas.

Multi-proxies Approach of Climatic Records In Terrestrial Mollusks Shells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labonne, M.; Rousseau, D. D.; Ben Othman, D.; Luck, J. M.; Metref, S.

Fossil land snails shells constitute a valuable source of information for the study of Quaternary deposits as they are commonly preserved in many regions and notably in loess sequences. The use of stable isotope composition of the carbonate in the shells was previously applied to reconstruct past climate or environnements but the technic was not widely exploited and compared with other proxies from the same sequence. In this study, we have analysed stables isotopes, trace elements and Sr isotopes from both shells of land snails Vertigo modesta and the sediment from the Eustis upper Pleistocene loess sequence (Nebraska, USA). This serie developed during the last glaciation and records the last deglaciation between 18,000 and 12,000 B.P. years. We compare the paleoclimatic information obtained by different proxies, such as mag- netic susceptibility, temperature and moisture estimated by land snails assemblage with geochemical data measured on land snails shells in order to validate the climatic information obtained with this proxy. Our study demonstrates that shell carbonate reflects environmental conditions estimated by other proxies. Carbon and oxygen iso- topes show cyclic variations (millenial cycles) along the profile which correlate with stratigraphic units and could be link with the retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet. Trace element and Sr isotopes in the shells indicate various origins for the eolian dusts in the two main loess units along the sequence.

Impact of Anthropogenic Disturbance on Native and Invasive Trypanosomes of Rodents in Forested Uganda.

PubMed

Salzer, Johanna S; Pinto, C Miguel; Grippi, Dylan C; Williams-Newkirk, Amanda Jo; Peterhans, Julian Kerbis; Rwego, Innocent B; Carroll, Darin S; Gillespie, Thomas R

2016-12-01

Habitat disturbance and anthropogenic change are globally associated with extinctions and invasive species introductions. Less understood is the impact of environmental change on the parasites harbored by endangered, extinct, and introduced species. To improve our understanding of the impacts of anthropogenic disturbance on such host-parasite interactions, we investigated an invasive trypanosome (Trypanosoma lewisi). We screened 348 individual small mammals, representing 26 species, from both forested and non-forested habitats in rural Uganda. Using microscopy and PCR, we identified 18% of individuals (order Rodentia) as positive for trypanosomes. Further phylogenetic analyses revealed two trypanosomes circulating-T. lewisi and T. varani. T. lewisi was found in seven species both native and invasive, while T. varani was identified in only three native forest species. The lack of T. varani in non-forested habitats suggests that it is a natural parasite of forest-dwelling rodents. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic disturbance may lead to spillover of an invasive parasite (T. lewisi) from non-native to native species, and lead to local co-extinction of a native parasite (T. varani) and native forest-dwelling hosts.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith

2011-02-01

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climatemore » feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.« less

Impact of socioeconomic status and subjective social class on overall and health-related quality of life.

PubMed

Kim, Jae-Hyun; Park, Eun-Cheol

2015-08-15

Our objective was to investigate the impact of socioeconomic status and subjective social class on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) vs. overall quality of life (QOL). We performed a longitudinal analysis using data regarding 8250 individuals drawn from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA). We analyzed differences between HRQOL and QOL in individuals of various socioeconomic strata (high, middle, or low household income and education levels) and subjective social classes (high, middle, or low) at baseline (2009). Individuals with low household incomes and of low subjective social class had the highest probability of reporting discrepant HRQOL and QOL scores (B: 4.796; P < 0.0001), whereas individuals with high household incomes and high subjective social class had the lowest probability of discrepant HRQOL and QOL scores (B: -3.625; P = 0.000). Similar trends were seen when education was used as a proxy for socioeconomic status. In conclusion, both household income/subjective social class and education/subjective social class were found to have an impact on the degree of divergence between QOL and HRQOL. Therefore, in designing interventions, socioeconomic inequalities should be taken into account through the use of multi-dimensional measurement tools.

A Multi-Proxy Paradigm in the Pursuit of Ocean Paleoredox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anbar, A. D.; Duan, Y.; Kendall, B.; Reinhard, C.; Severmann, S.; Lyons, T. W.

2011-12-01

The geologic record provides abundant evidence for variations in ocean oxygenation throughout Earth history. Expansion of ocean anoxic zones is expected in the future as a consequence of global climate change, with attendant effects on global nutrient inventories, carbon cycling and fluxes of trace greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Therefore, studying ancient ocean redox variations not only teaches us about the history of the Earth system, but also provides insights into how the system may respond to analogous human perturbations. However, the extent, duration, causes, and consequences of most past variations are poorly understood. This problem motivates the development of paleoredox proxies, including novel stable isotope systems such as Mo, Fe, U and Tl. Experience with these emerging isotope systems demonstrates great promise but also many challenges. The Mo isotope system is illustrative. To first order, the geochemical cycling and isotope systematics of this element are straightforward, making it a useful proxy. However, critical unresolved issues include: (a) uncertainties in the ocean inputs through time; (b) ambiguities about fractionation mechanisms; (c) inadequate understanding of how modern analogs map to ancient systems. Similar challenges confront all the novel isotope systems. The way forward requires integration of multiple isotopic proxies, as well as information gleaned from careful analyses of element concentrations. For example, an episode of Mo enrichment in the 2.5 Ga Mt. McRae Shale is generally interpreted as resulting from buildup of Mo in seawater due to oxidative weathering. This enrichment is therefore thought to indicate a "whiff" of O2 in the environment prior to the Great Oxidation Event that began at 2.4 Ga. Molybdenum isotopes are consistent with this interpretation. However, Mo enrichment due to enhanced input from low-T hydrothermal sources in an anoxic regime cannot be completely excluded given the current state of knowledge of Mo isotope systematics from such sources. By considering sedimentary Fe enrichments together with Fe isotopes, we find that the Mo enrichment correlates with the telltale signature of a shelf-to-basin Fe redox "shuttle". Uranium isotopes also exhibit variations indicative of redox transformations. This multi-proxy dataset therefore paints a robust picture of trace metal redox cycling consistent with the "whiff" interpretation.

Centennial-scale links between Atlantic Ocean dynamics and hydroclimate over the last 4400 years: Insights from the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirumalai, K.; Quinn, T. M.; Okumura, Y.; Richey, J. N.; Partin, J. W.; Poore, R. Z.

2015-12-01

Surface circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is an important mediator of global climate and yet its variability is poorly constrained on centennial timescales. Changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have been implicated in late Holocene climate variability in the Western Hemisphere, although the relationship between AMOC variability and hydroclimate is uncertain due to the lack of sufficiently highly resolved proxy records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) from the Garrison Basin in the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) spanning the last 4,400 years to better constrain past sea-surface conditions. We generated time series of paired Mg/Ca (SST proxy) and δ18O (SST and SSS proxy) variations in planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white variety) from three multi-cores collected in 2010. Using a Monte Carlo-based technique we produce a stacked record from the three multi-cores and constrain analytical, calibration, chronological, and sampling uncertainties. We apply this technique to existing paired Mg/Ca- δ18O studies in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean to facilitate comparison between time-uncertain proxy reconstructions. The Garrison Basin stack exhibits large centennial-scale variability (σSST~0.6°C; δ18Osw~0.17‰) and indicates a substantially cool (0.9±0.5°C) and fresh (0.26±0.1‰) Little Ice Age (LIA; 1450-1850 A.D.), corroborating extant records from the Gulf of Mexico. Focusing on the last millennium, we analyze a suite of oceanic and terrestrial proxy records to demonstrate a centennial-scale link between salt advection in the Atlantic Ocean, a diagnostic parameter of ocean circulation, and hydroclimate in the adjacent continents. The ensuing multiproxy relationships seem to be consistent with spatial field correlations of limited salinity and rainfall instrumental/reanalysis data, which suggest that NGOM salinity varies with large-scale Atlantic Ocean circulation and continental precipitation. Our results imply significant centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene and are consistent with limited observational analysis indicating a slowdown of AMOC during the LIA.

Ocean N2O Emissions : Recent Global Estimates and Anthropogenically Influenced Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suntharalingam, P.; Buithenuis, E.; Andrews, O.; Le Quere, C.

2016-12-01

Oceanic N2O is produced by microbial activity during organic matter cycling in the subsurface ocean; its production mechanisms display sensitivity to ambient oxygen level. In the oxic ocean, N2O is produced as a byproduct during the oxidation of ammonia to nitrate, mediated by ammonia oxidizing bacteria and archea. N2O is also produced and consumed in sub-oxic and anoxic waters through the action of marine denitrifiers during the multi-step reduction of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen. The oceanic N2O distribution therefore displays significant heterogeneity with background levels of 10-20 nmol/l in the well-oxygenated ocean basins, high concentrations (> 40 nmol/l) in hypoxic waters, and N2O depletion in the core of ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Oceanic N2O emissions are estimated to account for up to a third of the pre-industrial N2O fluxes to the atmosphere, however the natural cycle of ocean N2O has been perturbed in recent decades by inputs of anthropogenically derived nutrient, and by the impacts of climate change. Anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (e.g., NOx and NHy from fossil fuel combustion and agricultural fertilizer) enter the ocean via atmospheric deposition and riverine fluxes, influencing oceanic N2O production via their impact on the marine organic matter cycle. In addition, climate variations associated with surface ocean warming affect oceanic circulation and nutrient transport pathways, influencing marine productivity and the ventilation of oxygen minimum zones. Recent studies have suggested that possible expansion of oceanic OMZs in a warming climate could lead to significant changes in N2O production and fluxes from these regions. We will summarise the current state of knowledge on the ocean N2O budget and net flux to the atmosphere. Recently reported estimates have been based on (i) empirical relationships derived from ocean tracer data (e.g., involving excess N2O and Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) correlations), (ii) ocean biogeochemical models, and (iii) air-sea flux calculations which combine surface ocean N2O measurements with gas-exchange relationships. We will also present results from ongoing ocean biogeochemistry model analyses evaluating the separate influences of climate variation and anthropogenic nutrient inputs on ocean N2O emissions for recent decades.

Behavioral Problems and Childhood Epilepsy: Parent vs Child Perspectives.

PubMed

Eom, Soyong; Caplan, Rochelle; Berg, Anne T

2016-12-01

To test whether the reported association between pediatric epilepsy and behavioral problems may be distorted by the use of parental proxy report instruments. Children in the Connecticut Study of Epilepsy were assessed 8-9 years after their epilepsy diagnosis (time-1) with the parent-proxy Child Behavior Check List (CBCL) (ages 6-18 years) or the Young Adult Self-Report (≥18 years of age). For children <18 years of age, parents also completed the Child Health Questionnaire, which contains scales for impact of child's illness on the parents. The same study subjects completed the Adult Self-Report 6-8 years later (time-2). Sibling controls were also tested. Case-control differences were examined for evidence suggesting more behavioral problems in cases with epilepsy than in controls based on proxy- vs self-report measures. At time-1, parent-proxy CBCL scores were significantly higher (worse) for cases than controls (n = 140 matched pairs). After adjustment for Child Health Questionnaire scales reflecting parent emotional and time impact, only 1 case-control difference on the CBCL remained significant. Self-reported Young Adult Self-Report scores did not differ between cases and controls (n = 42 pairs). At time-2, there were no significant self-reported case-control differences on the Adult Self-Report (n = 105 pairs). Parent-proxy behavior measures appear to be influenced by the emotional impact of epilepsy on parents. This may contribute to apparent associations between behavioral problems and childhood epilepsy. Self-report measures in older adolescents (>18 years of age) and young adults do not confirm parental perceptions. Evidence suggesting more behavioral problems in children with epilepsy should be interpreted in light of the source of information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of shipping emissions on ozone levels over Europe: assessing the relative importance of the Standard Nomenclature for Air Pollution (SNAP) categories.

PubMed

Tagaris, Efthimios; Stergiou, Ioannis; Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni P

2017-06-01

The impact of shipping emissions on ozone mixing ratio over Europe is assessed for July 2006 using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system and the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research anthropogenic emission inventory. Results suggest that ship-induced ozone contribution to the total surface ozone exceeds 5% over the sea and near the coastline, while an increase up to 5% is simulated over a large portion of the European land. The largest impact (i.e., an increase up to 30%) is simulated over the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, shipping emissions are simulated to increase NO 2 mixing ratio more than 90%, locally, and to modify the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere through hydroxyl radical formation (increase by 20-60% over the sea along the European coasts and near the coastal zone). Therefore, emissions from ships may counteract the benefits derived from the anthropogenic emissions reduction strategies over the continent. Simulations suggest regions where shipping emissions have a major impact on ozone mixing ratio compared to individual anthropogenic emission sector categories. Shipping emissions are estimated to play an important role on ozone levels compared to road transport sector near the coastal zone. The impact of shipping emissions on ozone formation is also profound over a great part of the European land compared to the rest of anthropogenic emission categories.

Measuring Hair Cortisol Concentrations to Assess the Effect of Anthropogenic Impacts on Wild Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes).

PubMed

Carlitz, Esther H D; Miller, Robert; Kirschbaum, Clemens; Gao, Wei; Hänni, Daniel C; van Schaik, Carel P

2016-01-01

Non-human primates face major environmental changes due to increased human impacts all over the world. Although some species are able to survive in certain landscapes with anthropogenic impact, their long-term viability and fitness may be decreased due to chronic stress. Here we assessed long-term stress levels through cortisol analysis in chimpanzee hair obtained from sleeping nests in northwestern Uganda, in order to estimate welfare in the context of ecotourism, forest fragmentation with human-wildlife conflicts, and illegal logging with hunting activity (albeit not of primates), compared with a control without human contact or conflict. Concerning methodological issues, season [F(2,129) = 37.4, p < 0.0001, r2 = 0.18] and the age of nests [F(2,178) = 20.3, p < 0.0001, r2 = 0.11] significantly predicted hair cortisol concentrations (HCC). With regard to effects of anthropogenic impacts, our results neither showed elevation of HCC due to ecotourism, nor due to illegal logging compared to their control groups. We did, however, find significantly increased HCC in the fragment group compared to chimpanzees living in a nearby intact forest [F(1,88) = 5.0, p = 0.03, r2 = 0.20]. In conclusion, our results suggest that hair cortisol analysis is a powerful tool that can help understanding the impact of anthropogenic disturbances on chimpanzee well-being and could be applied to other great ape species.

Solar System Chaos and its climatic and biogeochemical consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, M.; Tada, R.; Ozaki, K.; Olsen, P. E.

2017-12-01

Insolation changes caused by changes in Earth's orbital parameters are the main driver of climatic variations, whose pace has been used for astronomically-calibrated geologic time scales of high accuracy to understand Earth system dynamics. However, the astrophysical models beyond several tens of million years ago have large uncertainty due to chaotic behavior of the Solar System, and its impact on amplitude modulation of multi-Myr-scale orbital variations and consequent climate changes has become the subject of debate. Here we show the geologic constraints on the past chaotic behavior of orbital cycles from early Mesozoic monsoon-related records; the 30-Myr-long lake level records of the lacustrine sequence in Newark-Hartford basins (North America) and 70-Myr-long biogenic silica (BSi) burial flux record of pelagic deep-sea chert sequence in Inuyama area (Japan). BSi burial flux of chert could be considered as proportional to the dissolved Si (DSi) input from chemical weathering on timescales longer than the residence time of DSi ( 100 kyr), because chert could represent a major sink for oceanic dissolved silica (Ikeda et al., 2017).These geologic records show multi-Myr cycles with similar frequency modulations of eccentricity solution of astronomical model La2010d (Laskar et al., 2011) compared with other astronomical solutions, but not exactly same. Our geologic records provide convincing evidence for the past chaotic dynamical behaviour of the Solar System and new and challenging additional constraints for astrophysical models. In addition, we find that ˜10 Myr cycle detected in monsoon proxies and their amplitude modulation of ˜2 Myr cycle may be related to the amplitude modulation of ˜2 Myr eccentricity cycle through non-linear process(es) of Earth system dynamics, suggesting possible impact of the chaotic behavior of Solar planets on climate change. Further impact of multi-Myr orbital cycles on global biogeochemical cycles will be discussed.

Modeling the Origin of Anthropogenic Black Carbon and Its Climatic Effect Over the Tibetan Plateau and Surrounding Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Junhua; Kang, Shichang; Ji, Zhenming; Chen, Deliang

2018-01-01

Black carbon (BC) in snow/ice induces enhanced snow and glacier melting. As over 60% of atmospheric BC is emitted from anthropogenic sources, which directly impacts the distribution and concentration of BC in snow/ice, it is essential to assess the origin of anthropogenic BC transported to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) where there are few direct emissions attributable to local human activities. In this study, we used a regional climate-atmospheric chemistry model and a set of BC scenarios for quantitative evaluation of the impact of anthropogenic BC from various sources and its climate effects over the TP in 2013. The results showed that the model performed well in terms of climatology, aerosol optical properties, and near-surface concentrations, which indicates that this modeling framework is appropriate to characterize anthropogenic BC source-receptor relationships over the TP. The simulated surface concentration associated with the anthropogenic sources showed seasonal differences. In the monsoon season, the contribution of anthropogenic BC was less than in the nonmonsoon season. In the nonmonsoon season, westerly winds prevailed and transported BC from central Asia and north India to the western TP. In the monsoon season, BC aerosol was transported to the middle-upper troposphere over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and crossed the Himalayas via southwesterly winds. The majority of anthropogenic BC over the TP was transported from South Asia, which contributed to 40%-80% (mean of 61.3%) of surface BC in the nonmonsoon season, and 10%-50% (mean of 19.4%) in the monsoon season. For the northeastern TP, anthropogenic BC from eastern China accounted for less than 10% of the total in the nonmonsoon season but can be up to 50% in the monsoon season. Averaged over the TP, the eastern China anthropogenic sources accounted for 6.2% and 8.4% of surface BC in the nonmonsoon and monsoon seasons, respectively. The anthropogenic BC induced negative radiative forcing and cooling effects at the near surface over the TP.

Environmental and geochemical record of human-induced changes in C storage during the last millennium in a temperate wetland (Las Tablas de Daimiel National Park, central Spain)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dominguez-Castro, F.; Santisteban, J.I.; Mediavilla, R.; Dean, W.E.; Lopez-Pamo, E.; Gil-Garcia, M. J.; Ruiz-Zapata, M. B.

2006-01-01

Las Tablas de Daimiel National Park has experienced many hydrological and ecological modifications through out its history, both of natural as well as anthropogenic origin, which have affected its carbon storage capacity and carbon fluxes. The study of those variations has been carried out by the analysis of its sedimentary record (geochemistry and pollen) and historical data. The natural changes have a wider variation range than the anthropogenic ones, show repetitive patterns and the system reacts readjusting the equilibrium among its components. Anthropogenic effects depend on the direct or indirect impact on the wetlands of change and its intensity. In addition, the anthropogenic impacts have the capacity of breaking the natural balance of the ecosystem and the internal interactions. ?? 2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2006 Blackwell Munksgaard.

Contribution of storms to shoreline changes in mesotidal dissipative beaches: case study in the Gulf of Cádiz (SW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puig, María; Del Río, Laura; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; Benavente, Javier

2016-12-01

In this study an analysis of storminess and rates of shoreline change is performed and discussed jointly in four geomorphological units of the Gulf of Cádiz (SW Spain) for the period of 1956-2010. For this purpose, storm events are identified based on the following characteristics: wave height above 2.5 m, a minimum duration of 12 h and events with calm periods of less than 24 h were considered as a single event. Subsequently, energy parameters are determined in order to characterize storm-induced impacts. Conversely, geographic information system (GIS) tools are used to measure shoreline changes in aerial photographs and orthophotographs of each site, selecting the high water line as shoreline proxy. Each geomorphological unit is divided into different behavioural patterns according to recorded coastal changes, so that each one shows a particular behaviour.In general the variability of shoreline changes that is explained by storms and the relation between storm parameters and coastal changes present better results in exposed areas (Cádiz and Vistahermosa) than in sheltered areas (Valdelagrana spit barrier) because the former are more sensitive to storm impacts. On the contrary, in areas where there is no relation between coastal changes and storm parameters (Valdelagrana and Sancti Petri sand spit), it is suggested that anthropogenic factors are the main forcing agents determining shoreline behaviour. However, in these areas the storminess also modulates coastline recession by increasing erosion when the number of storms is high.

Viral Regulation of Prokaryotic Carbon Metabolism in a Hypereutrophic Freshwater Reservoir Ecosystem (Villerest, France)

PubMed Central

Pradeep Ram, Angia Sriram; Colombet, Jonathan; Perriere, Fanny; Thouvenot, Antoine; Sime-Ngando, Télesphore

2016-01-01

The current consensus concerning the viral regulation of prokaryotic carbon metabolism is less well-studied, compared to substrate availability. We explored the seasonal and vertical distribution of viruses and its relative influence on prokaryotic carbon metabolism in a hypereutrophic reservoir, Lake Villerest (France). Flow cytometry and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) analyses to determine viral abundance (VA; range = 6.1–63.5 × 107 ml-1) and viral infection rates of prokaryotes (range = 5.3–32%) respectively suggested that both the parameters varied more significantly with depths than with seasons. Prokaryotic growth efficiency (PGE, considered as a proxy of prokaryotic carbon metabolism) calculated from prokaryotic production and respiration measurements (PGE = prokaryotic production/[prokaryotic production + prokaryotic respiration] × 100) varied from 14 to 80% across seasons and depths. Viruses through selective lyses had antagonistic impacts on PGE by regulating key prokaryotic metabolic processes (i.e., production and respiration). Higher viral lysis accompanied by higher respiration rates and lower PGE in the summer (mean = 22.9 ± 10.3%) than other seasons (mean = 59.1 ± 18.6%), led to significant loss of carbon through bacterial-viral loop and shifted the reservoir system to net heterotrophy. Our data therefore suggests that the putative adverse impact of viruses on the growth efficiency of the prokaryotic community can have strong implications on nutrient flux patterns and on the overall ecosystem metabolism in anthropogenic dominated aquatic systems such as Lake Villerest. PMID:26903963

Anthropogenic activities impact on atmospheric environmental quality in a gas-flaring community: application of fuzzy logic modelling concept.

PubMed

Akintola, Olayiwola Akin; Sangodoyin, Abimbola Yisau; Agunbiade, Foluso Oyedotun

2018-05-24

We present a modelling concept for evaluating the impacts of anthropogenic activities suspected to be from gas flaring on the quality of the atmosphere using domestic roof-harvested rainwater (DRHRW) as indicator. We analysed seven metals (Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn, Fe, Ca, and Mg) and six water quality parameters (acidity, PO 4 3- , SO 4 2- , NO 3 - , Cl - , and pH). These were used as input parameters in 12 sampling points from gas-flaring environments (Port Harcourt, Nigeria) using Ibadan as reference. We formulated the results of these input parameters into membership function fuzzy matrices based on four degrees of impact: extremely high, high, medium, and low, using regulatory limits as criteria. We generated indices that classified the degree of anthropogenic activity impact on the sites from the product membership function matrices and weight matrices, with investigated (gas-flaring) environment as between medium and high impact compared to those from reference (residential) environment that was classified as between low and medium impact. Major contaminants of concern found in the harvested rainwater were Pb and Cd. There is also the urgent need to stop gas-flaring activities in Port Harcourt area in particular and Niger Delta region of Nigeria in general, so as to minimise the untold health hazard that people living in the area are currently faced with. The fuzzy methodology presented has also indicated that the water cannot safely support potable uses and should not be consumed without purification due to the impact of anthropogenic activities in the area but may be useful for other domestic purposes.

Interaction effects of different drivers of wild bee decline and their influence on host-pathogen dynamics.

PubMed

Meeus, Ivan; Pisman, Matti; Smagghe, Guy; Piot, Niels

2018-04-01

Wild bee decline is a multi-factorial problem, yet it is crucial to understand the impact of a single driver. Hereto the interaction effects of wild bee decline with multiple natural and anthropogenic stressors need to be clear. This is also true for the driver 'pathogens', as stressor induced disturbances of natural host-pathogen dynamics can unbalance settled virulence equilibria. Invasive species, bee domestication, habitat loss, climate changes and insecticides are recognized drivers of wild bee decline, but all influence host-pathogen dynamics as well. Many wild bee pathogens have multiple hosts, which relaxes the host-density limitation of virulence evolution. In conclusion, disturbances of bee-pathogen dynamics can be compared to a game of Russian roulette. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Impact of climate, CO2 and land use on terrestrial carbon and water fluxes in China based on a multi-model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, B.; Xie, Z.

2017-12-01

Climate change and anthropogenic activities have been exerting profound influences on ecosystem function and processes, including tightly coupled terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, their relative contributions of the key controlling factors, e.g., climate, CO2 fertilization, land use and land cover change (LULCC), on spatial-temporal patterns of terrestrial carbon and water fluxes in China are still not well understood due to the lack of ecosystem-level flux observations and uncertainties in single terrestrial biosphere model (TBM). In the present study, we quantified the effect of climate, CO2, and LULCC on terrestrial carbon and water fluxes in China using multi-model simulations for their inter-annual variability (IAV), seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) and long-term trend during the past five decades (1961-2010). In addition, their relative contributions to the temporal variations of gross primary productivity (GPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and evapotranspiration (ET) were investigated through factorial experiments. Finally, the discussions about the inter-model differences and model uncertainties were presented.

Biogenic-Anthropogenic Interactions in Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation and Health Effects of Atmospheric Organic Aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Jianhuai

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), comprises a major fraction of atmospheric submicron particulate matter, which is crucial for global climate change and human health. While biogenic VOCs are naturally emitted and cannot be directly controlled, field measurements and satellite observations have shown that biogenic SOA (BSOA) formation correlates well with anthropogenic pollutants and may be anthropogenically controlled. In this work, the formation of the "anthropogenically controllable BSOA" was examined. BSOA from alpha-pinene ozonolysis was investigated in the presence of laboratory-generated or ambient organic aerosol such as Toronto ambient particles. It is shown that SOA was not equally miscible with all organic species. Aerosol mixing thermodynamics in the atmosphere is composition dependent. Based on laboratory observations, an empirical framework using bulk elemental ratios was developed to predict atmospheric organic miscibility and SOA yield enhancements. Besides organic aerosol, interactions between BSOA formation and SO2 was also examined. Synergistic effects were observed between BSOA formation and SO2 oxidation through Criegee and peroxide chemistry under atmospherically relevant RH conditions. In addition to the physicochemical properties of SOA, health impacts of SOA were examined. An atmospheric simulation reactor (ASR) was developed to investigate the health effects of air pollutants by permitting controlled chronic in vivo exposure of mice to combine particulate and gaseous pollutants at 'real-life' concentrations. Results show that daily exposure to SOA from naphthalene photooxidation led to increased airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) to methacholine in a dose-dependent manner. Multi-pollutant exposures with ozone and/or NO2 in conjunction with a sub-toxic concentration of SOA resulted in additive effects on AHR to methacholine. Inflammatory cell recruitment to the airways was not observed in any of the exposure conditions, indicating the increased AHR was not associated with airway inflammation and may occur through other mechanisms.

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakelin, Sarah L.; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Allen, J. Icarus; Holt, Jason T.

2015-12-01

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030-2040) and the far future (2082-2099) are compared to the recent past (1983-2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production (netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

The anthropogenic influence on heat and humidity in the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inda Diaz, H. A.; O'Brien, T. A.; Stone, D. A.

2016-12-01

Heatwaves, and extreme temperatures in general, have a wide range of negative impacts on society, and particularly on human health. In addition to temperature, humidity plays a key role in regulating human body temperature, with higher humidities tending to reduce the effectiveness of perspiration. There is recent theoretical and observational evidence that co-occurring extreme heat and humidity can potentially have a much more dramatic impact on human health than either extreme in isolation. There is an abundance of observational evidence indicating that anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have contributed to an increase in the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes on a global scale. However, aside from purely thermodynamically-driven increases in near-surface humidity, there is a paucity of similar evidence for anthropogenic impacts on humidity. Thermodynamic scaling would suggest that air masses originating from the ocean would be associated with higher specific humidity in a warmer world, and transpiration from irrigated crops could further increase humidity in warm air masses. In order to explore the role of anthropogenic GHG forcing on the co-occurrence of temperature and humidity extremes in the Midwestern United States (US), we evaluate a large ensemble of global climate model simulations with and without anthropogenic GHG forcing. In particular, we examine differences between the probability distributions of near-surface temperature, humidity, wet-bulb temperature, and the joint distribution of temperature and humidity in this ensemble. Finally, we explore augmenting this experimental framework with additional simulations to explore the role of anthropogenic changes in the land surface, and in particular irrigated crops, on co-occurring extreme heat and humidity.

Aerosols at the Poles: An Aerocom Phase II Multi-Model Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sand, Maria; Bauer, Susanne E.; Samset, Bjorn H.; Balkanski, Yves; Bellouin, Nicolas; Berntsen, Terje K.; Bian, Huisheng; Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Easter, Richard;

Aerosols at the poles: an AeroCom Phase II multi-model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sand, Maria; Samset, Bjørn H.; Balkanski, Yves; Bauer, Susanne; Bellouin, Nicolas; Berntsen, Terje K.; Bian, Huisheng; Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Easter, Richard; Ghan, Steven J.; Iversen, Trond; Kirkevåg, Alf; Lamarque, Jean-François; Lin, Guangxing; Liu, Xiaohong; Luo, Gan; Myhre, Gunnar; van Noije, Twan; Penner, Joyce E.; Schulz, Michael; Seland, Øyvind; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Stier, Philip; Takemura, Toshihiko; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Yu, Fangqun; Zhang, Kai; Zhang, Hua

2017-10-01

Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources reach the polar regions through long-range transport and affect the local radiation balance. Such transport is, however, poorly constrained in present-day global climate models, and few multi-model evaluations of polar anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing exist. Here we compare the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from simulations with 16 global aerosol models from the AeroCom Phase II model intercomparison project with available observations at both poles. We show that the annual mean multi-model median is representative of the observations in Arctic, but that the intermodel spread is large. We also document the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of the AOD for the individual aerosol species: black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel and biomass burning, sulfate, organic aerosols (OAs), dust, and sea-salt. For a subset of models that represent nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we document the role of these aerosols at high latitudes.The seasonal dependence of natural and anthropogenic aerosols differs with natural aerosols peaking in winter (sea-salt) and spring (dust), whereas AOD from anthropogenic aerosols peaks in late spring and summer. The models produce a median annual mean AOD of 0.07 in the Arctic (defined here as north of 60° N). The models also predict a noteworthy aerosol transport to the Antarctic (south of 70° S) with a resulting AOD varying between 0.01 and 0.02. The models have estimated the shortwave anthropogenic radiative forcing contributions to the direct aerosol effect (DAE) associated with BC and OA from fossil fuel and biofuel (FF), sulfate, SOAs, nitrate, and biomass burning from BC and OA emissions combined. The Arctic modelled annual mean DAE is slightly negative (-0.12 W m-2), dominated by a positive BC FF DAE in spring and a negative sulfate DAE in summer. The Antarctic DAE is governed by BC FF. We perform sensitivity experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE) to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range.

Distinct Seasonal Patterns of Bacterioplankton Abundance and Dominance of Phyla α-Proteobacteria and Cyanobacteria in Qinhuangdao Coastal Waters Off the Bohai Sea

PubMed Central

He, Yaodong; Sen, Biswarup; Zhou, Shuangyan; Xie, Ningdong; Zhang, Yongfeng; Zhang, Jianle; Wang, Guangyi

2017-01-01

Qinhuangdao coastal waters in northern China are heavily impacted by anthropogenic and natural activities, and we anticipate a direct influence of the impact on the bacterioplankton abundance and diversity inhabiting the adjacent coastal areas. To ascertain the anthropogenic influences, we first evaluated the seasonal abundance patterns and diversity of bacterioplankton in the coastal areas with varied levels of natural and anthropogenic activities and then analyzed the environmental factors which influenced the abundance patterns. Results indicated distinct patterns in bacterioplankton abundance across the warm and cold seasons in all stations. Total bacterial abundance in the stations ranged from 8.67 × 104 to 2.08 × 106 cells/mL and had significant (p < 0.01) positive correlation with total phosphorus (TP), which indicated TP as the key monitoring parameter for anthropogenic impact on nutrients cycling. Proteobacteria and Cyanobacteria were the most abundant phyla in the Qinhuangdao coastal waters. Redundancy analysis revealed significant (p < 0.01) influence of temperature, dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a on the spatiotemporal abundance pattern of α-Proteobacteria and Cyanobacteria groups. Among the 19 identified bacterioplankton subgroups, α-Proteobacteria (phylum Proteobacteria) was the dominant one followed by Family II (phylum Cyanobacteria), representing 19.1–55.2% and 2.3–54.2% of total sequences, respectively. An inverse relationship (r = -0.82) was observed between the two dominant subgroups, α-Proteobacteria and Family II. A wide range of inverse Simpson index (10.2 to 105) revealed spatial heterogeneity of bacterioplankton diversity likely resulting from the varied anthropogenic and natural influences. Overall, our results suggested that seasonal variations impose substantial influence on shaping bacterioplankton abundance patterns. In addition, the predominance of only a few cosmopolitan species in the Qinhuangdao coastal wasters was probably an indication of their competitive advantage over other bacterioplankton groups in the degradation of anthropogenic inputs. The results provided an evidence of their ecological significance in coastal waters impacted by seasonal inputs of the natural and anthropogenic matter. In conclusion, the findings anticipate future development of effective indicators of coastal health monitoring and subsequent management strategies to control the anthropogenic inputs in the Qinhuangdao coastal waters. PMID:28868051

Advective transport in heterogeneous aquifers: Are proxy models predictive?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiori, A.; Zarlenga, A.; Gotovac, H.; Jankovic, I.; Volpi, E.; Cvetkovic, V.; Dagan, G.

2015-12-01

We examine the prediction capability of two approximate models (Multi-Rate Mass Transfer (MRMT) and Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW)) of non-Fickian transport, by comparison with accurate 2-D and 3-D numerical simulations. Both nonlocal in time approaches circumvent the need to solve the flow and transport equations by using proxy models to advection, providing the breakthrough curves (BTC) at control planes at any x, depending on a vector of five unknown parameters. Although underlain by different mechanisms, the two models have an identical structure in the Laplace Transform domain and have the Markovian property of independent transitions. We show that also the numerical BTCs enjoy the Markovian property. Following the procedure recommended in the literature, along a practitioner perspective, we first calibrate the parameters values by a best fit with the numerical BTC at a control plane at x1, close to the injection plane, and subsequently use it for prediction at further control planes for a few values of σY2≤8. Due to a similar structure and Markovian property, the two methods perform equally well in matching the numerical BTC. The identified parameters are generally not unique, making their identification somewhat arbitrary. The inverse Gaussian model and the recently developed Multi-Indicator Model (MIM), which does not require any fitting as it relates the BTC to the permeability structure, are also discussed. The application of the proxy models for prediction requires carrying out transport field tests of large plumes for a long duration.

A School-Level Proxy Measure for Individual-level Poverty Using School-Level Eligibility for Free and Reduced-Price Meals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Day, Sophia E.; Hinterland, Kinjia; Myers, Christa; Gupta, Leena; Harris, Tiffany G.; Konty, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

Background: Socioeconomic status (SES) impacts health outcomes. The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), like many school-based data sources, lacks individual-level poverty information. We propose using school-level percentages of student eligibility for free/reduced-price meals (%FRPM) as a proxy for individual-level poverty. Methods: Using the New…

Effects of anthropogenic disturbance on indri (Indri indri) health in Madagascar.

PubMed

Junge, Randall E; Barrett, Meredith A; Yoder, Anne D

2011-07-01

Anthropogenic habitat disturbance impairs ecosystem health by fragmenting forested areas, introducing environmental contamination, and reducing the quality of habitat resources. The effect of this disturbance on wildlife health is of particular concern in Madagascar, one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, where anthropogenic pressures on the environment remain high. Despite the conservation importance of threatened lemur populations in Madagascar, few data exist on the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on lemur health. To examine these impacts, indri (Indri indri) populations were evaluated from two forest reserves that differ in their exposure to anthropogenic disturbance. We compared the health status of 36 indri individuals from two sites: one population from a protected, undisturbed area of lowland evergreen humid forest and the other population from a reserve exposed to frequent tourism and forest degradation. Comparison of indri health parameters between sites suggests an impact of anthropogenic disturbance, including significant differences in leukocyte count and differential, 12 serum parameters, 6 trace minerals, and a higher diversity of parasites, with a significant difference in the presence of the louse, Trichophilopterus babakotophilus. These data suggest that indri living in disturbed forests may experience physiological changes and increased susceptibility to parasitism, which may ultimately impair reproductive success and survival. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Peculiarities of changes in the soil cover of landscapes adjacent to a megalopolis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazareva, Margarita; Aparin, Boris; Sukhacheva, Elena

2017-04-01

The progressive growth of cities has a significant impact on the soil cover of territories adjacent to the same. Megalopolises are centers of anthropogenic impact on the soils. Generally, forms and intensity of the urban impact on the soil cover weaken with increasing distance from the city's boundaries. In this respect, ample opportunities for the analysis of urban impact on the adjacent territories are provided by the study of the soil cover in the Leningrad Region (the LR). Saint Petersburg is a major European megalopolis, which is the administrative center of the LR. The time period of Saint Petersburg's impact on the environment does not exceed 300 years, which allows us to identify very clearly the character and areas of its impact on the soil cover. Over the past decades, there have been significant changes in the soils and the soil cover of the LR. In a large territory, there appeared new anthropogenic soils and soil cover organization forms, having no natural analogues, with a dramatic increase in the surface area of degraded soils. To access the current state of soil cover, to identify the role of anthropogenic factors of changes in this state; to carry out land reclamation, remediation and rehabilitation measures; to perform land cadastral valuation etc., we need an information resource containing data on the current state of soils and soil cover in the LR, the key element of which should be a map. We carried out mapping and created a 1:200 000 digital soil map (DSM) for the LR's territories. Diagnostics of soil contours were performed using traditionally drawn-up (paper) maps of soils and soil-formation factors; satellite images (Google, Yandex); data of remote sensing (Spot 5, Landsat 7,8); digital maps of main soil-formation factors (topographical ones, etc.). The digital soil map of the LR has been created in the geographic information system - QGIS. The map clarifies the contours of natural soils and soil combinations, and shows, for the first time, the contours of: - non-soil formations; - soils of the initial soil formation; - soils of agricultural lands within their existing boundaries; - soils and soil combinations that are specific for human settlements and horticultural land plots; - fallow lands; - anthropogenically disturbed soils. During the analysis of the created digital medium-scale soil map, we identified some changes in the soil cover of the territories adjacent to Saint Petersburg. Virtually in all the landscapes, we found a large number of soil cover structures, the components of which, along with natural soils, are anthropogenically disturbed soils, anthropogenic soils and non-soil formations. We revealed that the human impact on the soil cover is manifested within the range that varies from insignificant changes in soil parameters to radical transformations of the soil profile, complete destruction of soil and "creation" of new soil forms and soil cover organization forms. We have developed a typology of anthropogenically changed and anthropogenically created soil cover structures, taking into consideration the types of the economic impact on and the quality of environmental functions performed by the soils.

Solar EUV irradiance for space weather applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.

2015-12-01

Solar EUV irradiance is an important driver of space weather models. Large changes in EUV and x-ray irradiances create large variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere. Proxies such as the F10.7 cm radio flux, have provided reasonable estimates of the EUV flux but as the space weather models become more accurate and the demands of the customers become more stringent, proxies are no longer adequate. Furthermore, proxies are often provided only on a daily basis and shorter time scales are becoming important. Also, there is a growing need for multi-day forecasts of solar EUV irradiance to drive space weather forecast models. In this presentation we will describe the needs and requirements for solar EUV irradiance information from the space weather modeler's perspective. We will then translate these requirements into solar observational requirements such as spectral resolution and irradiance accuracy. We will also describe the activities at NOAA to provide long-term solar EUV irradiance observations and derived products that are needed for real-time space weather modeling.

Evaluation of multi-model aerosol distributions over East Asia using in-situ and satellite observations during summer 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quennehen, B.; Raut, J.; Law, K.; Ancellet, G.; Bazureau, A.; Thomas, J.; Daskalakis, N.; Kim, S.; Zhu, T.

2013-12-01

As part of the EU ECLIPSE (Evaluating the CLimate and air quality ImPacts of Short-livEd pollutants) project, which aims to quantify the climate impact of short lived climate forcers (SLCFs), including aerosols, black carbon and ozone, the WRF-Chem regional and six global (ECHAM6, EMEP, HadGEM, OsloCTM, NORESM, TM4) models are evaluated using observations in East-Asia. Simulations are compared at horizontal and vertical scales to satellite observations, as well as data from field campaigns which took place in summer 2008, and from long-term measurement stations. Models were run with the same emissions, namely, the ECLIPSE anthropogenic (based on the GAINS model), GFED 3.1 fire and RCP 6.0 ship and aircraft emissions for 2008. The initial and boundary conditions for the WRF-Chem regional model were specified from the TM4 global chemical transport model. Firstly, this study evaluates the ability of the models to simulate aerosol physical, optical and chemical properties at a large scale, both horizontally and vertically, using monthly mean satellite observations such as CALIPSO, MODIS and IASI. Secondly, model daily and hourly results are evaluated at more regional/local scales using ground-based data and measurements from summer 2008 intensive campaigns, including aircraft data (CAPMEX and CAREBEIJING). In this study, we assess aerosol total concentrations and size distributions simulated by the model. The radiative impact of anthropogenic aerosol layers has already been investigated but less is known about the influence of vertical layering in the atmosphere. Pollution layers have different radiative impacts whether they are below or above clouds and in that sense, a better understanding of their spatial and vertical extent is critical. Information about pollution layers and cloud optical properties and locations over East-Asia are determined using observations from IASI for trace gases and CALIPSO for aerosols. The radiative impact of the aerosol layers is simulated and compared to the observations. The impact of differences in the evaluated parameters on the radiative calculations will be estimated.

600 yr High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation deduced from a Puerto Rican Speleothem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieten, Rolf; Winter, Amos; Scholz, Denis; Black, David; Spoetl, Christoph; Winterhalder, Sophie; Koltai, Gabriella; Schroeder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Terzer, Stefan; Zanchettin, Davide; Mangini, Augusto

2016-04-01

A multi-proxy speleothem study tracks the regional hydrological variability in Puerto Rico and highlights its close relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) describing low-frequency sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic ocean. Our proxy record extends instrumental observations 600 years into the past, and reveals the range of natural hydrologic variability for the region. A detailed interpretation and understanding of the speleothem climate record is achieved by the combination of multi-proxy measurements, thin section petrography, XRD analysis and cave monitoring results. The speleothem was collected in Cueva Larga, a one mile-long cave system that has been monitored since 2012. MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dating reveals that the speleothem grew constantly over the last 600 years. Trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) as well as stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) elucidate significant changes in atmospheric precipitation at the site. Monthly cave monitoring results demonstrate that the epikarst system responds to multi-annual changes in seepage water recharge. The drip water isotope and trace element composition lack short term or seasonal variability. This hydrological system creates favorable conditions to deduce decadal climate variability from Cueva Larga's climate record. The speleothem time series mimics the most recent AMO reconstruction over the last 200 years (Svendsen et al., 2014) with a time lag of 10-20 years. The lag seems to results from slow atmospheric signal transmission through the epikarst but the effect of dating uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Warm SSTs in the North Atlantic are related to drier conditions in Puerto Rico. During times of decreased rainfall a relative increase in prior calcite precipitation seems to be the main process causing increased Mg/Ca trace element ratios. High trace element ratios correlate to higher δ13C values. The increase in both proxies indicates a shift towards time periods of decreased rainfall. Before 1800 there were two intervals of increased Mg/Ca and δ13C values (dryer conditions) lasting several decades in our speleothem record centered around 1680 CE and 1470 CE. The elevated ratios indicate that drier conditions than present may have occurred in the region during periods of warm Atlantic surface waters.

Self-consistent asset pricing models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevergne, Y.; Sornette, D.

2007-08-01

We discuss the foundations of factor or regression models in the light of the self-consistency condition that the market portfolio (and more generally the risk factors) is (are) constituted of the assets whose returns it is (they are) supposed to explain. As already reported in several articles, self-consistency implies correlations between the return disturbances. As a consequence, the alphas and betas of the factor model are unobservable. Self-consistency leads to renormalized betas with zero effective alphas, which are observable with standard OLS regressions. When the conditions derived from internal consistency are not met, the model is necessarily incomplete, which means that some sources of risk cannot be replicated (or hedged) by a portfolio of stocks traded on the market, even for infinite economies. Analytical derivations and numerical simulations show that, for arbitrary choices of the proxy which are different from the true market portfolio, a modified linear regression holds with a non-zero value αi at the origin between an asset i's return and the proxy's return. Self-consistency also introduces “orthogonality” and “normality” conditions linking the betas, alphas (as well as the residuals) and the weights of the proxy portfolio. Two diagnostics based on these orthogonality and normality conditions are implemented on a basket of 323 assets which have been components of the S&P500 in the period from January 1990 to February 2005. These two diagnostics show interesting departures from dynamical self-consistency starting about 2 years before the end of the Internet bubble. Assuming that the CAPM holds with the self-consistency condition, the OLS method automatically obeys the resulting orthogonality and normality conditions and therefore provides a simple way to self-consistently assess the parameters of the model by using proxy portfolios made only of the assets which are used in the CAPM regressions. Finally, the factor decomposition with the self-consistency condition derives a risk-factor decomposition in the multi-factor case which is identical to the principal component analysis (PCA), thus providing a direct link between model-driven and data-driven constructions of risk factors. This correspondence shows that PCA will therefore suffer from the same limitations as the CAPM and its multi-factor generalization, namely lack of out-of-sample explanatory power and predictability. In the multi-period context, the self-consistency conditions force the betas to be time-dependent with specific constraints.

600 yr High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability deduced from a Puerto Rican Speleothem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, A.; Vieten, R.

2015-12-01

A multi-proxy speleothem study tracks the regional hydrological variability in Puerto Rico and highlights its close relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Our proxy record extends instrumental observations 600 years into the past, and reveals the range of natural hydrologic variability for the region. A detailed interpretation and understanding of the speleothem climate record is achieved by the combination of multi-proxy measurements, thin section petrography, XRD analysis and cave monitoring results. The speleothem was collected in Cueva Larga, a one mile-long cave system that has been monitored since 2012. MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dating reveals that the speleothem grew constantly over the last 600 years. Trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) as well as stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) elucidate significant changes in atmospheric precipitation at the site. Monthly cave monitoring results demonstrate that the epikarst system responds to multi-annual changes in seepage water recharge. The drip water isotope and trace element composition lack short term or seasonal variability. This hydrological system creates favorable conditions to deduce decadal climate variability from Cueva Larga's climate record. The speleothem time series mimics the most-recently published AMO reconstruction over the last 200 years with a time lag of 10-20 years. The time lag seems to results from slow atmospheric signal transmission through the epikarst but the effect of dating uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Warm SSTs in the North Atlantic are related to drier conditions in Puerto Rico. During times of decreased rainfall a relative increase in prior calcite precipitation seems to be the main process causing increased Mg/Ca trace element ratios. High trace element ratios correlate to higher δ13C values. The increase in both proxies indicates a shift towards time periods of decreased rainfall. Over the past 600 years there are two intervals of increased Mg/Ca and δ13C values lasting several decades in our speleothem record. They are centered around 1680 CE and 1470 CE. The elevated ratios indicate that drier conditions than present occurred in the region during periods of warm Atlantic surface waters. This may be a precursor of conditions now and to come.

Persistent drying in the tropics linked to natural forcing.

PubMed

Winter, Amos; Zanchettin, Davide; Miller, Thomas; Kushnir, Yochanan; Black, David; Lohmann, Gerrit; Burnett, Allison; Haug, Gerald H; Estrella-Martínez, Juan; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Beaufort, Luc; Rubino, Angelo; Cheng, Hai

2015-07-14

Approximately half of the world's population lives in the tropics, and future changes in the hydrological cycle will impact not just the freshwater supplies but also energy production in areas dependent upon hydroelectric power. It is vital that we understand the mechanisms/processes that affect tropical precipitation and the eventual surface hydrological response to better assess projected future regional precipitation trends and variability. Paleo-climate proxies are well suited for this purpose as they provide long time series that pre-date and complement the present, often short instrumental observations. Here we present paleo-precipitation data from a speleothem located in Mesoamerica that reveal large multi-decadal declines in regional precipitation, whose onset coincides with clusters of large volcanic eruptions during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This reconstruction provides new independent evidence of long-lasting volcanic effects on climate and elucidates key aspects of the causal chain of physical processes determining the tropical climate response to global radiative forcing.

Finding a Needle in a Climate Haystack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verosub, K. L.; Medrano, R.; Valentine, M.

2014-12-01

We are studying the regional impact of volcanic eruptions that might have caused global cooling using high-quality annual-resolution proxy records of natural phenomena, such as tree-ring widths, and cultural events, such as the dates of the beginning of grape and rye harvests. To do this we need to determine if the year following an eruption was significantly colder and wetter than preceding or subsequent years as measured by any given proxy and if that year is consistently cold and wet across different proxies. The problem is complicated by the fact that normal inter-annual variations in any given proxy can be quite large and can obscure any volcanological impact and by the fact that inter-annual variations for different proxies will have different means and standard deviations. We address the first problem by assuming that on a regional scale, the inter-annual variations of different proxies are at best only weakly correlated and that, in the absence of a volcanological signal, these variations will average out on a regional scale. We address the second problem by renormalizing each record so that it has the same mean and standard deviation over a given time interval. We then sum the re-normalized records on a year-by-year basis and look for years with significantly higher total scores. The method can also be used to assess the statistical significance of an anomalous value. Our initial analysis of records primarily from the Northern Hemisphere shows that the years 1601 and 1816 were significantly colder and wetter than any others in the past 500 years. These years followed the eruptions of Huayanaputina in Chile and Tambora in Indonesia, respectively, by one year. The years 1698 and 1837 also show up as being climatologically severe although they have not (yet) been associated with specific volcanic eruptions.

Effects of methylphenidate on quality of life in children with both developmental coordination disorder and ADHD.

PubMed

Flapper, Boudien C T; Schoemaker, Marina M

2008-04-01

Measurement of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in attention-deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) gives a more complete picture of day-to-day functioning and treatment effects than behavioural rating alone. The aim of this pilot study was to investigate the impact of the combined diagnoses of developmental coordination disorder (DCD) and ADHD on HRQOL, and the effectiveness of methylphenidate (MPH) on HRQOL. HRQOL was established using the Dutch-Child-AZL-TNO-Quality-of-Life (DUX-25) and the TNO-AZL-Child-Quality-of-Life (TACQOL) questionnaires, completed by children and parents. HRQOL of these children was compared with that of 23 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. Twenty-three children (21 males, two females; mean age 8 y 6 mo, [SD 3 mo] range 7 y-10 y 8 mo) with ADHD/DCD entered a 4-week, open-label MPH study, after MPH-sensitivity was established, in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. In these children's self- and proxy reports, impact of both DCD and ADHD was reflected in lower general well-being (self and proxy report p=0.001) due to lower functioning in motor (selfp=0.026; proxy 0.001), autonomic (self p<0.001; proxy p=0.047), cognitive (self p=0.001; proxy p=0.01), and social (self and proxy p<0.001) domains. HRQOL scores improved in 18 children receiving MPH (p=0.001) versus controls. The ADHD /DCD group also demonstrated a significant improvement in ADHD symptoms (p<0.001) and motor functioning (p<0.001). Additional motor therapy will still be needed in about half of the children with ADHD/DCD receiving MPH, within multimodal treatment including educational and psychosocial assistance.

Attributing anthropogenic impact on regional heat wave events using CAM5 model large ensemble simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, S. H.; Chen, C. T.

2017-12-01

Extreme heat waves have serious impacts on society. It was argued that the anthropogenic forcing might substantially increase the risk of extreme heat wave events (e.g. over western Europe in 2003 and over Russia in 2010). However, the regional dependence of such anthropogenic impact and the sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave still require further studies. In our research framework, the change in the frequency and severity of a heat wave event under current conditions is calculated and compared with the probability and magnitude of the event if the effects of particular external forcing, such as due to human influence, had been absent. In our research, we use the CAM5 large ensemble simulation from the CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project (http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/main.html, Folland et al. 2014) to detect the heat wave events occurred in both historical all forcing run and natural forcing only run. The heat wave events are identified by partial duration series method (Huth et al., 2000). We test the sensitivity of heat wave thresholds from daily maximum temperature (Tmax) in warm season (from May to September) between 1959 and 2013. We consider the anthropogenic effect on the later period (2000-2013) when the warming due to human impact is more evident. Using Taiwan and surrounding area as our preliminary research target, We found the anthropogenic effect will increase the heat wave day per year from 30 days to 75 days and make the mean starting(ending) day for heat waves events about 15-30 days earlier(later). Using the Fraction of Attribution Risk analysis to estimate the risk of frequency of heat wave day, our results show the anthropogenic forcing very likely increase the heat wave days over Taiwan by more than 50%. Further regional differences and sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave will be compared and discussed.

Multi-isotope tracers to investigate processes in the Elbe, Weser and Ems river catchment using B, Mo, Sr, and Pb isotope ratios assessed by MC ICP-MS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irrgeher, Johanna; Reese, Anna; Zimmermann, Tristan; Prohaska, Thomas; Retzmann, Anika; Wieser, Michael E.; Zitek, Andreas; Proefrock, Daniel

2017-04-01

Environmental monitoring of complex ecosystems requires reliable sensitive techniques based on sound analytical strategies to identify the source, fate and sink of elements and matter. Isotopic signatures can serve to trace pathways by making use of specific isotopic fingermarks or to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic sources. The presented work shows the potential of using the isotopic variation of Sr, Pb (as well-established isotopic systems), Mo and B (as novel isotopic system) assessed by MC ICP-MS in water and sediment samples to study aquatic ecosystem transport processes. The isotopic variation of Sr, Pb, Mo and B was determined in different marine and estuarine compartments covering the catchment of the German Wadden Sea and its main tributaries, the Elbe, Weser and Ems River. The varying elemental concentrations, the complex matrix and the expected small variations in the isotopic composition required the development and application of reliable analytical measurement approaches as well as suited metrological data evaluation strategies. Aquatic isoscapes were created using ArcGIS® by relating spatial isotopic data with geographical and geological maps. The elemental and isotopic distribution maps show large variation for different parameters and also reflect the numerous impact factors (e.g. geology, anthropogenic sources) influencing the catchment area.

Multi-proxy analyses of geo-bio-archives - a key to reconstruct major environmental and ecological changes in the Ephesia, W Turkey, during the last eight millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stock, Friederike; Knipping, Maria; Pint, Anna; Krichel, Marc; Schwarzbauer, Jan; Dsikowitzky, Larissa; Brückner, Helmut

2016-04-01

This interdisciplinary geoarchaeological research in the environs of the ancient city of Ephesus (W Turkey) focuses on (i) Holocene landscape reconstruction along with sea-level changes, and (ii) human impact on landscape evolution. More than 200 sediment cores were retrieved from geo-bio-archives and analysed with a multi-proxy approach (geochemical, sedimentological, microfaunal, palynological, and parasitological methods). The Holocene palaeogeographic changes in the embayment of the Küçük Menderes (Kaystros) on the Aegean coast of Turkey with the famous ancient city of Ephesus are counted amongst the most dramatic ones in the Mediterranean. About seven millennia ago, the maximum marine transgression filled the Küçük Menderes graben up to 20 km inland. Since then, the coastline has continuously shifted westwards due to the progradation of the deltas of this river and its tributaries. Besides other natural factors, like sea level fluctuations and tectonics, the speed of delta progradation was mainly governed by the riverine sediment load, which, in turn, was very much dependent on the human impact on the vegetation cover of the drainage basins. The sedimentation rates confirm this assumption: While low rates occurred between the 5th and the 1st millennia BC (up to 1 mm/year), much higher rates (4 - 30 mm/year) can be calculated thereafter. In response to these dramatic environmental changes, human settlements and their harbours had to be relocated several times from the 1st millennium BC onwards. The Koressos harbour and the Roman harbour were important hubs for commerce with the islands in the Aegean Sea. The nowadays silted-up harbour basins are valuable geo-bio-archives. The Roman harbours inventory shows high heavy metal concentrations (lead, copper), fruit tree pollen and eggs of intestinal parasites from the 1st millennium BC until the 7th century AD, as evidence of intensive human impact during that period of time. The occurrence of organic compounds (abietane, retene, loliolode and β-cyclocitral originating, e.g., from natural resins, tar and bitumen) also correlate with the intensive use of the harbour. In contrast, the lake and swamps of Belevi, located 14 km upstream of Ephesus, represent a geo-bio-archive with a quasi-natural sedimentation. However, even there the palynological analysis clearly reveals settlement activities already since the 7th millennium BC. The proof of the Santorini tephra of 1630 BC is an excellent marker horizon; it is the first time that this ash was detected in the environs of Ephesus.

Recent ecological and biogeochemical changes in alpine lakes of Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA): A response to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolfe, A.P.; Van Gorp, A.C.; Baron, Jill S.

2003-01-01

Dated sediment cores from five alpine lakes (>3200 m asl) in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado Front Range, USA) record near-synchronous stratigraphic changes that are believed to reflect ecological and biogeochemical responses to enhanced nitrogen deposition from anthropogenic sources. Changes in sediment proxies include progressive increases in the frequencies of mesotrophic planktonic diatom taxa and diatom concentrations, coupled with depletions of sediment δ15N and C : N values. These trends are especially pronounced since approximately 1950. The most conspicuous diatoms to expand in recent decades are Asterionella formosa and Fragilaria crotonensis. Down-core species changes are corroborated by a year-long sediment trap experiment from one of the lakes, which reveals high frequencies of these two taxa during autumn and winter months, the interval of peak annual limnetic [NO3-]. Although all lakes record recent changes, the amplitude of stratigraphic shifts is greater in lakes east of the Continental Divide relative to those on the western slope, implying that most nitrogen enrichment originates from urban, industrial and agricultural sources east of the Rocky Mountains. Deviations from natural trajectories of lake ontogeny are illustrated by canonical correspondence analysis, which constrains the diatom record as a response to changes in nitrogen biogeochemistry. These results indicate that modest rates of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are fully capable of inducing directional biological and biogeochemical shifts in relatively pristine ecosystems.

Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

2014-12-01

Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in regions where human activity is significant, even if it is under the worst-case RCP8.5 scenario. More realistic assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and the cost estimation of how much economic investments are needed to maintain the current level of the risks of water scarcity are necessary.

Source partitioning of anthropogenic groundwater nitrogen in a mixed-use landscape, Tutuila, American Samoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuler, Christopher K.; El-Kadi, Aly I.; Dulai, Henrietta; Glenn, Craig R.; Fackrell, Joseph

2017-12-01

This study presents a modeling framework for quantifying human impacts and for partitioning the sources of contamination related to water quality in the mixed-use landscape of a small tropical volcanic island. On Tutuila, the main island of American Samoa, production wells in the most populated region (the Tafuna-Leone Plain) produce most of the island's drinking water. However, much of this water has been deemed unsafe to drink since 2009. Tutuila has three predominant anthropogenic non-point-groundwater-pollution sources of concern: on-site disposal systems (OSDS), agricultural chemicals, and pig manure. These sources are broadly distributed throughout the landscape and are located near many drinking-water wells. Water quality analyses show a link between elevated levels of total dissolved groundwater nitrogen (TN) and areas with high non-point-source pollution density, suggesting that TN can be used as a tracer of groundwater contamination from these sources. The modeling framework used in this study integrates land-use information, hydrological data, and water quality analyses with nitrogen loading and transport models. The approach utilizes a numerical groundwater flow model, a nitrogen-loading model, and a multi-species contaminant transport model. Nitrogen from each source is modeled as an independent component in order to trace the impact from individual land-use activities. Model results are calibrated and validated with dissolved groundwater TN concentrations and inorganic δ15N values, respectively. Results indicate that OSDS contribute significantly more TN to Tutuila's aquifers than other sources, and thus should be prioritized in future water-quality management efforts.

Assessment of multi-decadal WRF-CMAQ simulations for understanding direct aerosol effects on radiation "brightening" in the United States

DOE PAGES

Gan, C.-M.; Pleim, J.; Mathur, R.; ...

2015-07-01

Multi-decadal simulations with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model have been conducted to systematically investigate the changes in anthropogenic emissions of SO 2 and NO x over the past 21 years (1990–2010) across the United States (US), their impacts on anthropogenic aerosol loading over North America, and subsequent impacts on regional radiation budgets. In particular, this study attempts to determine the consequences of the changes in tropospheric aerosol burden arising from substantial reductions in emissions of SO 2 and NO x associated with control measures under the Clean Air Act (CAA) especially on trends in solar radiation. Extensive analyses conducted by Ganmore » et al. (2014) utilizing observations (e.g. SURFRAD, CASTNET, IMPROVE and ARM) over the past 16 years (1995–2010) indicate a shortwave (SW) radiation (both all-sky and clear-sky) "brightening" in the US. The relationship of the radiation brightening trend with decreases in the aerosol burden is less apparent in the western US. One of the main reasons for this is that the emission controls under the CAA were aimed primarily at reducing pollutants in areas violating national air quality standards, most of which were located in the eastern US while the relatively less populated areas in the western US were less polluted at the beginning of this study period. Comparisons of model results with observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol concentration, and radiation demonstrate that the coupled WRF-CMAQ model is capable of replicating the trends well even through it tends to underestimate the AOD. In particular, the sulfate concentration predictions were well matched with the observations. The discrenpancies found in the clear-sky diffuse SW radiation are likely due to several factors such as potential increase of ice particles associated with increasing air traffic, the definition of "clear-sky" in the radiation retrieval methodology and aerosol semi-direct and/or indirect effects which cannot be readily isolated from the observed data.« less

Assessment of multi-decadal WRF-CMAQ simulations for understanding direct aerosol effects on radiation "brightening" in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gan, C.-M.; Pleim, J.; Mathur, R.

Multi-decadal simulations with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model have been conducted to systematically investigate the changes in anthropogenic emissions of SO 2 and NO x over the past 21 years (1990–2010) across the United States (US), their impacts on anthropogenic aerosol loading over North America, and subsequent impacts on regional radiation budgets. In particular, this study attempts to determine the consequences of the changes in tropospheric aerosol burden arising from substantial reductions in emissions of SO 2 and NO x associated with control measures under the Clean Air Act (CAA) especially on trends in solar radiation. Extensive analyses conducted by Ganmore » et al. (2014) utilizing observations (e.g. SURFRAD, CASTNET, IMPROVE and ARM) over the past 16 years (1995–2010) indicate a shortwave (SW) radiation (both all-sky and clear-sky) "brightening" in the US. The relationship of the radiation brightening trend with decreases in the aerosol burden is less apparent in the western US. One of the main reasons for this is that the emission controls under the CAA were aimed primarily at reducing pollutants in areas violating national air quality standards, most of which were located in the eastern US while the relatively less populated areas in the western US were less polluted at the beginning of this study period. Comparisons of model results with observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol concentration, and radiation demonstrate that the coupled WRF-CMAQ model is capable of replicating the trends well even through it tends to underestimate the AOD. In particular, the sulfate concentration predictions were well matched with the observations. The discrenpancies found in the clear-sky diffuse SW radiation are likely due to several factors such as potential increase of ice particles associated with increasing air traffic, the definition of "clear-sky" in the radiation retrieval methodology and aerosol semi-direct and/or indirect effects which cannot be readily isolated from the observed data.« less

Anthropogenic impact on diazotrophic diversity in the mangrove rhizosphere revealed by nifH pyrosequencing

PubMed Central

Jing, Hongmei; Xia, Xiaomin; Liu, Hongbin; Zhou, Zhi; Wu, Chen; Nagarajan, Sanjay

2015-01-01

Diazotrophs in the mangrove rhizosphere play a major role in providing new nitrogen to the mangrove ecosystem and their composition and activity are strongly influenced by anthropogenic activity and ecological conditions. In this study, the diversity of the diazotroph communities in the rhizosphere sediment of five tropical mangrove sites with different levels of pollution along the north and south coastline of Singapore were studied by pyrosequencing of the nifH gene. Bioinformatics analysis revealed that in all the studied locations, the diazotroph communities comprised mainly of members of the diazotrophic cluster I and cluster III. The detected cluster III diazotrophs, which were composed entirely of sulfate-reducing bacteria, were more abundant in the less polluted locations. The metabolic capacities of these diazotrophs indicate the potential for bioremediation and resiliency of the ecosystem to anthropogenic impact. In heavily polluted locations, the diazotrophic community structures were markedly different and the diversity of species was significantly reduced when compared with those in a pristine location. This, together with the increased abundance of Marinobacterium, which is a bioindicator of pollution, suggests that anthropogenic activity has a negative impact on the genetic diversity of diazotrophs in the mangrove rhizosphere. PMID:26539189

A 3-D Model Analysis of The Impact of Asian Anthropogenic Emissions on the Sulfur Cycle Over the Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Thornton, Donald; Bandy, Alan; Huebert, Barry; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The impact of anthropogenic activities on the SO2 and sulfate aerosol levels over the Pacific region is examined in the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We focus on the analysis of the data from the NASA Pacific Exploratory Missions (PEM) over the western North Pacific and the tropical Pacific. These missions include PEM-West A in September-October 1991, when the Asian outflow was at the minimum but the upper atmosphere was heavily influenced by the Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and PEM-West B in March-April 1994 when the Asian outflow was at the maximum, and PEM-Tropics A in August-September at a region relatively free of direct anthropogenic influences. Specifically, we will examine the relative importance of anthropogenic, volcanic and biogenic sources to the SO2 and sulfate concentrations over the Pacific, and quantify the processes controlling the distributions of SO2 and sulfate in both the boundary layer and the free troposphere. We will also assess the global impact of SO2 emission in Asia on the sulfate aerosol loading.

Anthropogenic impact on diazotrophic diversity in the mangrove rhizosphere revealed by nifH pyrosequencing.

PubMed

Jing, Hongmei; Xia, Xiaomin; Liu, Hongbin; Zhou, Zhi; Wu, Chen; Nagarajan, Sanjay

2015-01-01

Diazotrophs in the mangrove rhizosphere play a major role in providing new nitrogen to the mangrove ecosystem and their composition and activity are strongly influenced by anthropogenic activity and ecological conditions. In this study, the diversity of the diazotroph communities in the rhizosphere sediment of five tropical mangrove sites with different levels of pollution along the north and south coastline of Singapore were studied by pyrosequencing of the nifH gene. Bioinformatics analysis revealed that in all the studied locations, the diazotroph communities comprised mainly of members of the diazotrophic cluster I and cluster III. The detected cluster III diazotrophs, which were composed entirely of sulfate-reducing bacteria, were more abundant in the less polluted locations. The metabolic capacities of these diazotrophs indicate the potential for bioremediation and resiliency of the ecosystem to anthropogenic impact. In heavily polluted locations, the diazotrophic community structures were markedly different and the diversity of species was significantly reduced when compared with those in a pristine location. This, together with the increased abundance of Marinobacterium, which is a bioindicator of pollution, suggests that anthropogenic activity has a negative impact on the genetic diversity of diazotrophs in the mangrove rhizosphere.

Measuring Hair Cortisol Concentrations to Assess the Effect of Anthropogenic Impacts on Wild Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes)

PubMed Central

Carlitz, Esther H. D.; Miller, Robert; Kirschbaum, Clemens; Gao, Wei; Hänni, Daniel C.; van Schaik, Carel P.

2016-01-01

Non-human primates face major environmental changes due to increased human impacts all over the world. Although some species are able to survive in certain landscapes with anthropogenic impact, their long-term viability and fitness may be decreased due to chronic stress. Here we assessed long-term stress levels through cortisol analysis in chimpanzee hair obtained from sleeping nests in northwestern Uganda, in order to estimate welfare in the context of ecotourism, forest fragmentation with human-wildlife conflicts, and illegal logging with hunting activity (albeit not of primates), compared with a control without human contact or conflict. Concerning methodological issues, season [F(2,129) = 37.4, p < 0.0001, r2 = 0.18] and the age of nests [F(2,178) = 20.3, p < 0.0001, r2 = 0.11] significantly predicted hair cortisol concentrations (HCC). With regard to effects of anthropogenic impacts, our results neither showed elevation of HCC due to ecotourism, nor due to illegal logging compared to their control groups. We did, however, find significantly increased HCC in the fragment group compared to chimpanzees living in a nearby intact forest [F(1,88) = 5.0, p = 0.03, r2 = 0.20]. In conclusion, our results suggest that hair cortisol analysis is a powerful tool that can help understanding the impact of anthropogenic disturbances on chimpanzee well-being and could be applied to other great ape species. PMID:27050418

Temporal dynamics of bird community composition: an analysis of baseline conditions from long-term data.

PubMed

Kampichler, Christian; Angeler, David G; Holmes, Richard T; Leito, Aivar; Svensson, Sören; van der Jeugd, Henk P; Wesołowski, Tomasz

2014-08-01

Numerous anthropogenic activities threaten the biodiversity found on earth. Because all ecological communities constantly experience temporal turnover due to natural processes, it is important to distinguish between change due to anthropogenic impact and the underlying natural rate of change. In this study, we used data sets on breeding bird communities that covered at least 20 consecutive years, from a variety of terrestrial ecosystems, to address two main questions. (1) How fast does the composition of bird communities change over time, and can we identify a baseline of natural change that distinguishes primeval systems from systems experiencing varying degrees of human impact? (2) How do patterns of temporal variation in composition vary among bird communities in ecosystems with different anthropogenic impacts? Time lag analysis (TLA) showed a pattern of increasing rate of temporal compositional change from large-scale primeval systems to disturbed and protected systems to distinctly successional systems. TLA slopes of <0.04 were typical for breeding bird communities with natural turnover, while communities subjected to anthropogenic impact were characterised by TLA slopes of >0.04. Most of the temporal variability of breeding bird communities was explained by slow changes occurring over decades, regardless of the intensity of human impact. In most of the time series, medium- and short-wave periodicity was not detected, with the exception of breeding bird communities subjected to periodic pulses (e.g. caterpillar outbreaks causing food resource peaks).

Understanding north-western Mediterranean climate variability: a multi-proxy and multi-sequence approach based on wavelet analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuara, Julien; Lebreton, Vincent; Jalali, Bassem; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sabatier, Pierre; Dezileau, Laurent; Peyron, Odile; Frigola, Jaime; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

2017-04-01

Forcings and physical mechanisms underlying Holocene climate variability still remain poorly understood. Comparison of different paleoclimatic reconstructions using spectral analysis allows to investigate their common periodicities and helps to understand the causes of past climate changes. Wavelet analysis applied on several proxy time series from the Atlantic domain already revealed the first key-issues on the origin of Holocene climate variability. However the differences in duration, resolution and variance between the time-series are important issues for comparing paleoclimatic sequences in the frequency domain. This work compiles 7 paleoclimatic proxy records from 4 time-series from the north-western Mediterranean all ranging from 7000 to 1000 yrs cal BP: -pollen and clay mineral contents from the lagoonal sediment core PB06 recovered in southern France, -Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) derived from alkenones, concentration of terrestrial alkanes and their average chain length (ACL) from core KSGC-31_GolHo-1B recovered in the Gulf of Lion inner-shelf, - δ18O record from speleothems recovered in the Asiul Cave in north-western Spain, -grain size record from the deep basin sediment drift core MD99-2343 north of Minorca island. A comparison of their frequency content is proposed using wavelet analysis and cluster analysis of wavelet power spectra. Common cyclicities are assessed using cross-wavelet analysis. In addition, a new algorithm is used in order to propagate the age model errors within wavelet power spectra. Results are consistents with a non-stationnary Holocene climate variability. The Halstatt cycles (2000-2500 years) depicted in many proxies (ACL, errestrial alkanes and SSTs) demonstrate solar activity influence in the north-western Mediterranean climate. Cluster analysis shows that pollen and ACL proxies, both indicating changes in aridity, are clearly distinct from other proxies and share significant common periodicities around 1000 and 600 years, since the mid-Holocene. The 1000 years period is also evidenced in terrestrial alkanes and Minorca sediment drift grain size, which respectively indicate changes in the Rhône hydrology and changes in the north-western Mediterranean deep water formation. These findings suggests that an original climate driver influences the Gulf of Lion area. Finally, both clay mineral content from PB06, indicative of past storminess and δ18O record from the north western Iberia, related to precipitations, record the well known 1500 years period since the middle Holocene. The presence of this period, widely encountered in the Atlantic, highlights the link between the north-western Mediterranean and the Atlantic climate variability.

Late-Holocene climate and environmental change on the Antarctic Peninsula: multi-proxy palaeoclimate records from frozen moss banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roland, T.; Amesbury, M.; Royles, J.; Hodgson, D.; Convey, P.; Griffiths, H.; Charman, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has been one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, with air temperature increases of 3°C recorded since the mid-20th century. However, instrumental climate records are mostly limited to the late 1950s onwards and existing palaeoenvironmental data that provide a longer-term context to recent climate and biological changes are often spatially isolated and temporally fragmented. Ice-core records from the AP are not suitably located to be able to examine the spatial signature of climate changes over time. Moss banks located along the western AP are ideal archives for palaeoclimate research as they are well-preserved, have sufficiently high accumulation rates to permit decadally resolved analyses using multiple proxies over the last c. 4000 years, and are easily dated with 14C and 210Pb. Potential climate proxies (moss accumulation and growth rates, Δ13C in moss cellulose, testate amoebae concentration) are sensitive to regional temperature change, moderated by water availability and surface microclimate. Here we present multi-proxy records of biological change from these archives of late Holocene climate variability. We identified significant changepoints in six cores at three sites, across a transect spanning c. 600 km, observing that biological response to recent rapid warming on the AP is pervasive and unprecedented over the last 150 years. Longer records show that recent change is also unusual in the context of the past 4000 years and suggest that westerly wind strength linked to the Southern Annular Mode is the most likely driver of centennial-scale AP temperature variability. Widespread changes in the terrestrial biosphere of the AP in response to past temperature suggest that terrestrial ecosystems will alter rapidly under future warming scenarios, leading to major changes in the biology and landscape of this iconic region — an Antarctic greening to parallel well-established observations in the Arctic.

A multi-proxy assessment of dieback causes in a Mediterranean oak species.

PubMed

Colangelo, Michele; Camarero, J Julio; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Borghetti, Marco; De Micco, Veronica; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Ripullone, Francesco

2017-05-01

Drought stress causes forest dieback that is often explained by two interrelated mechanisms, namely hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. However, it is still unclear which functional and structural alterations, related to these mechanisms, predispose to dieback. Here we apply a multi-proxy approach for the characterization of tree structure (radial growth, wood anatomy) and functioning (δ13C, δ18O and non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs)) in tree rings before and after drought-induced dieback. We aim to discriminate which is the main mechanism and to assess which variables can act as early-warning proxies of drought-triggered damage. The study was tailored in southern Italy in two forests (i.e., San Paolo (SP) and Oriolo (OR)) where declining and non-declining trees of a ring-porous tree species (Quercus frainetto Ten.) showing anisohydric behavior coexist. Both stands showed growth decline in response to warm and dry spring conditions, although the onset of dieback was shifted between them (2002 in SP and 2009 in OR). Declining trees displayed a sharp growth drop after this onset with reductions of 49% and 44% at SP and OR sites, respectively. Further, contrary to what we expected, declining trees showed a lower intrinsic water-use efficiency compared with non-declining trees after the dieback onset (with reductions of 9.7% and 5.6% at sites SP and OR, respectively), due to enhanced water loss through transpiration, as indicated by the lower δ18O values. This was more noticeable at the most drought-affected SP stand. Sapwood NSCs did not differ between declining and non-declining trees, indicating no carbon starvation in affected trees. Thus, the characterized structural and functional alterations partially support the hydraulic failure mechanism of dieback. Finally, we show that growth data are reliable early-warning proxies of drought-triggered dieback. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global Synthesis of Common Era Hydroclimate using Water Isotope Proxies from Multiple Archives: First Results from the PAGES Iso2k Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B. L.; Partin, J. W.; Conroy, J. L.; Fischer, M.; Jones, M.; Jonkers, L.; McKay, N.; Stevenson, S.; Thompson, D. M.; Tyler, J. J.; Churakova (Sidorova), O.; Comas-Bru, L.; Dassie, E. P.; Dee, S.; DeLong, K. L.; Falster, G.; Martrat, B.

2017-12-01

Global, multi-proxy paleoclimate data syntheses for the Common Era (CE) have revealed a long-term cooling over the past millennium followed by a recent warming, with possible multi-decadal to centennial temperature variability in some regions. However, changes in atmospheric-oceanic circulation or hydroclimate have yet to be assessed on a global scale. Excellently suited to this purpose are proxies for the δ18O and δD of environmental waters found in glacier and ground ice, speleothems, corals, tree rings, and lake and marine sediments, which track common signals related to circulation and hydroclimate. Here, we utilize the new PAGES Iso2k database, a global compilation of CE δ18O and δD records, to investigate spatiotemporal variability and secular trends in global hydroclimate during the past 2 kyr. Overall, subtle but robust circulation shifts are apparent during the CE. We find preliminary evidence for secular trends in δ18O of lake water, precipitation/soil water, and seawater, with the direction and magnitude of trends varying by the type of environmental water (e.g., precipitation vs. seawater) and by region. We also find evidence for centennial-scale variations in regional δ18O and δD, for example a basin-wide Atlantic δ18Oseawater anomaly emerging during the 18th century and possible freshening of the western Pacific during the 20th century. On land, latitudinal trends in mean CE δ18Olake are consistent with present day gradients of δ18Oprecipitation, with evaporation exerting additional strong influence at mid-latitudes. In the ocean, coral δ18O in the western equatorial Pacific is found to reflect salinity rather than (or in addition to) temperature, providing potential quantitative constraints on past moisture balance from corals. We evaluate the dynamics of these spatiotemporal patterns through comparison with isotope-enabled model simulations, discuss relevant climatic inferences, and reexamine proxy interpretations.

Mapping the Proxies of Memory and Learning Function in Senior Adults with High-performing, Normal Aging and Neurocognitive Disorders.

PubMed

Lu, Hanna; Xi, Ni; Fung, Ada W T; Lam, Linda C W

2018-06-09

Memory and learning, as the core brain function, shows controversial results across studies focusing on aging and dementia. One of the reasons is because of the multi-faceted nature of memory and learning. However, there is still a dearth of comparable proxies with psychometric and morphometric portrait in clinical and non-clinical populations. We aim to investigate the proxies of memory and learning function with direct and derived measures and examine their associations with morphometric features in senior adults with different cognitive status. Based on two modality-driven tests, we assessed the component-specific memory and learning in the individuals with high performing (HP), normal aging, and neurocognitive disorders (NCD) (n = 488). Structural magnetic resonance imaging was used to measure the regional cortical thickness with surface-based morphometry analysis in a subsample (n = 52). Compared with HP elderly, the ones with normal aging and minor NCD showed declined recognition memory and working memory, whereas had better learning performance (derived scores). Meanwhile, major NCD patients showed more breakdowns of memory and learning function. The correlation between proxies of memory and learning and cortical thickness exhibited the overlapped and unique neural underpinnings. The proxies of memory and learning could be characterized by component-specific constructs with psychometric and morphometric bases. Overall, the constructs of memory are more likely related to the pathological changes, and the constructs of learning tend to reflect the cognitive abilities of compensation.

Climatic and hydrologic perturbations in eastern North America during the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eley, Y.; Hren, M. T.; Super, J. R.

2017-12-01

The Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO, 15-17 Ma) was the warmest period of the Neogene, punctuating the long-term Cenozoic cooling trend of the last 50 million years. Temperatures during the MMCO are thought to have reached 4-5 °C higher than modern, despite relatively modest atmospheric pCO2 concentrations of 300-500 ppm. Similarity between Miocene pCO2 levels and those forecast for the next century make the MMCO a key interval for understanding the potential impacts of anthropogenic pCO2 forcing. Evaluation of the climatic drivers and environmental consequences of this transient warming event is challenging, however, due to the limited number of high resolution proxy records of temperature and hydrologic change through the MMCO, particularly from terrestrial sites. Here, we present a new organic molecular record from the Calvert Cliffs formation in Maryland, to investigate terrestrial and near-shore environmental conditions during the MMCO. We observe small-scale fluctuations of 2 °C in isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) TEX86-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs), however these are superimposed on a long-term gradual warming trend that raises SSTs by 5 °C between 16.5 Ma and 14 Ma. In contrast, the MBT'-CBT soil temperature proxy, based on terrestrially sourced branched GDGTs, suggests mean annual temperatures rose by 3 °C between 16.5 and 15.9 Ma. Over the same interval, leaf wax n-alkane hydrogen isotopes show a rapid positive shift of 40‰, which we attribute to the influence of these warmer temperatures on the condensation of precipitation. A coeval negative excursion of 2‰ in carbon isotopes is indicative of an increase in rainfall during this mid-Miocene warming. The timing of biomarker-derived terrestrial climatic and hydrologic perturbations closely match reconstructed shifts in atmospheric pCO2, illustrating the tight coupling between terrestrial environmental change and carbon cycling during the middle Miocene.

Effects of hydrologic connectivity and land use on floodplain sediment accumulation at the Savannah River Site, South Carolina.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eddy, Jeremy Edward

Floodplains, and the sediment accumulating naturally on them,are important to maintain stream water quality and serve as sinks for organic and inorganic carbon. Newer theories contend that land use and hydrologic connectivity (water-mediated transport of matter, energy, and/or organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle) play important roles in determining sediment accumulation on floodplains. This study hypothesizes that changes in hydrologic connectivity have a greater impact on floodplain sediment accumulation than changes in land use. Nine sediment cores from seven sub-basins were collected from the Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina, and processed for grain-size, radionuclide dating (7Be,more » 137Cs, 210Pb), particulate organic carbon (POC), and microscopy. Historical records, including aerial and satellite imagery,were used to identify anthropogenic disturbances in the sub-basins, as well as to calculate the percentages of natural vegetation land cover at the SRS in 1951, and 2014. LiDAR and field survey data identified 251 flow impediments, measured elevation, and recorded standard stream characteristics (e.g., bank height) that canaffect hydrologic connectivity. Radionuclide dating was used to calculate sediment mass accumulation rates (MARs) and linear accumulation rates (LARs) for each core. Results indicate that sedimentation rates have increased across all SRS sub-basins over the past 40-50 years, shortly after site restoration and recovery efforts began.Findings show that hydrologic connectivity proxies (i.e., stream characteristics and impediments) have stronger relationships to MARs and LARs than the land use proxy (i.e., vegetation cover), confirming the hypothesis. Asstream channel depth and the number of impediments increase,floodplain sedimentation rates also increase. This knowledge can help future stream restoration efforts by focusing resources to more efficiently attain stated goals, particularly in terms of floodplain sediment retention.« less

Timing and Prediction of Climate Change and Hydrological Impacts: Periodicity in Natural Variations

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrological impacts from climate change are of principal interest to water resource policy-makers and practicing engineers, and predictive climatic models have been extensively investigated to quantify the impacts. In palaeoclmatic investigations, climate proxy evidence has une...

Parent proxy-reported quality of life for children with cerebral palsy: is it related to parental psychosocial distress?

PubMed

Davis, E; Mackinnon, A; Waters, E

2012-07-01

Parent-proxy reports of quality of life (QOL) are often used to guide decisions about children with cerebral palsy (CP), although little is known about the factors that influence parent-proxy reports. The aim of this study was to examine (i) the relationship between parental psychosocial distress and parent proxy-reported QOL; and (ii) whether parental psychosocial distress mediates the relationship between child impairment and proxy-reported QOL. A sample of 201 primary caregivers of children aged 4-12 years with CP completed the Cerebral Palsy Quality of Life Questionnaire for Children, a condition-specific QOL instrument, and a measure of psychosocial distress, the Kessler 10. The children, evenly distributed by gender (56% male) were sampled across Gross Motor Function Classification System levels (Level I = 18%, II = 28%, III = 14%, IV = 11%, V = 27%). Consistent with the hypotheses, parental distress was negatively correlated with all domains of parent proxy-reported QOL (r = -0.18 to r = -0.55). The relationship between impairment and proxy-reported QOL was mediated by parental distress for five of the seven domains of QOL (social well-being and acceptance, feelings about functioning, participation and physical health, emotional well-being and self-esteem, and pain and impact of disability). Child impairment did not predict access to services or family health. This is the first study that assesses the relationship between parental distress and proxy-reported QOL for children with CP. Although the cross-sectional nature of the available data precludes any statements of causality, the results suggest that, when using parent proxy, the parents' psychological state should also be measured. This is particularly important when, as is often the case for child disability research, proxy-reported QOL are the only available data. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

How Does Variability in Aragonite Saturation Proxies Impact Our Estimates of the Intensity and Duration of Exposure to Aragonite Corrosive Conditions in a Coastal Upwelling System?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abell, J. T.; Jacobsen, J.; Bjorkstedt, E.

2016-02-01

Determining aragonite saturation state (Ω) in seawater requires measurement of two parameters of the carbonate system: most commonly dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA). The routine measurement of DIC and TA is not always possible on frequently repeated hydrographic lines or at moored-time series that collect hydrographic data at short time intervals. In such cases a proxy can be developed that relates the saturation state as derived from one time or infrequent DIC and TA measurements (Ωmeas) to more frequently measured parameters such as dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (Temp). These proxies are generally based on best-fit parameterizations that utilize references values of DO and Temp and adjust linear coefficients until the error between the proxy-derived saturation state (Ωproxy) and Ωmeas is minimized. Proxies have been used to infer Ω from moored hydrographic sensors and gliders which routinely collect DO and Temp data but do not include carbonate parameter measurements. Proxies can also calculate Ω in regional oceanographic models which do not explicitly include carbonate parameters. Here we examine the variability and accuracy of Ωproxy along a near-shore hydrographic line and a moored-time series stations at Trinidad Head, CA. The saturation state is determined using proxies from different coastal regions of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem and from different years of sampling along the hydrographic line. We then calculate the variability and error associated with the use of different proxy coefficients, the sensitivity to reference values and the inclusion of additional variables. We demonstrate how this variability affects estimates of the intensity and duration of exposure to aragonite corrosive conditions on the near-shore shelf and in the water column.

Revised paleoenvironmental analysis of the Holocene portion of the Barbados sea-level record: Cobbler's Reef revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toscano, Marguerite A.

2016-06-01

Sample elevations corrected for tectonic uplift and assessed relative to local modeled sea levels provide a new perspective on paleoenvironmental history at Cobbler's Reef, Barbados. Previously, 14C-dated surface samples of fragmented Acropora palmata plotted above paleo sea level based on their present (uplifted) elevations, suggesting supratidal rubble deposited during a period of extreme storms (4500-3000 cal BP), precipitating reef demise. At several sites, however, A. palmata persisted, existing until ~370 cal BP. Uplift-corrected A. palmata sample elevations lie below the western Atlantic sea-level curve, and ~2 m below ICE-6G-modeled paleo sea level, under slow rates of sea-level rise, negating the possibility that Cobbler's Reef is a supratidal storm ridge. Most sites show limited age ranges from corals likely damaged/killed on the reef crest, not the mixed ages of rubble ridges, strongly suggesting the reef framework died off in stages over 6500 yr. Reef crest death assemblages invoke multiple paleohistoric causes, from ubiquitous hurricanes to anthropogenic impacts. Comparison of death assemblage ages to dated regional paleotempestological sequences, proxy-based paleotemperatures, recorded hurricanes, tsunamis, European settlement, deforestation, and resulting turbidity, reveals many possible factors inimical to the survival of A. palmata along Cobbler's Reef.

Exploratory behaviour and stressor hyper-responsiveness facilitate range expansion of an introduced songbird

PubMed Central

Liebl, Andrea L.; Martin, Lynn B.

2012-01-01

Global anthropogenic changes are occurring at an unprecedented rate; one change, human-facilitated introduction of species outside their native range, has had significant ecological and economic impacts. Surprisingly, what traits facilitate range expansions post-introduction is relatively unknown. This information could help predict future expansions of introduced species as well as native species shifting their ranges as climate conditions change. Here, we asked whether specific behavioural and physiological traits were important in the ongoing expansion of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) across Kenya. We predicted that birds at the site of initial introduction (Mombasa, introduced approx. 1950) would behave and regulate corticosterone, a stress hormone, differently than birds at the range edge (Kakamega, approx. 885 km from Mombasa; colonized within the last 5 years). Specifically, we predicted greater exploratory behaviour and stronger corticosterone response to stressors in birds at the range edge, which may facilitate the identification, resolution and memory of stressors. Indeed, we found that distance from Mombasa (a proxy for population age) was a strong predictor of both exploratory behaviour and corticosterone release in response to restraint (but only while birds were breeding). These results suggest that certain behavioural and neuroendocrine traits may influence the ability of species to colonize novel habitats. PMID:22951742

Conservation implications of anthropogenic impacts on visual communication and camouflage.

PubMed

Delhey, Kaspar; Peters, Anne

2017-02-01

Anthropogenic environmental impacts can disrupt the sensory environment of animals and affect important processes from mate choice to predator avoidance. Currently, these effects are best understood for auditory and chemosensory modalities, and recent reviews highlight their importance for conservation. We examined how anthropogenic changes to the visual environment (ambient light, transmission, and backgrounds) affect visual communication and camouflage and considered the implications of these effects for conservation. Human changes to the visual environment can increase predation risk by affecting camouflage effectiveness, lead to maladaptive patterns of mate choice, and disrupt mutualistic interactions between pollinators and plants. Implications for conservation are particularly evident for disrupted camouflage due to its tight links with survival. The conservation importance of impaired visual communication is less documented. The effects of anthropogenic changes on visual communication and camouflage may be severe when they affect critical processes such as pollination or species recognition. However, when impaired mate choice does not lead to hybridization, the conservation consequences are less clear. We suggest that the demographic effects of human impacts on visual communication and camouflage will be particularly strong when human-induced modifications to the visual environment are evolutionarily novel (i.e., very different from natural variation); affected species and populations have low levels of intraspecific (genotypic and phenotypic) variation and behavioral, sensory, or physiological plasticity; and the processes affected are directly related to survival (camouflage), species recognition, or number of offspring produced, rather than offspring quality or attractiveness. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic effects on the visual environment may be of similar importance relative to conservation as anthropogenic effects on other sensory modalities. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Climatic variability during the last deglaciation: A stalagmite-based multi-proxy record from Mawmluh cave, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huguet, C.; Munnuru Singamshetty, K.; Routh, J.; Fietz, S.; Mangini, A.; Ghosh, P.; Lone, M. A.; Rangarajan, R.; Eliasson, J.

2016-12-01

The Mawmluh cave in northeastern India, is affected by global climate patterns displaying glacial-interglacial patterns and also the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Precipitation from the ISM plays a vital role for the local community and thus, understanding the driving forces of ISM fluctuations became a recent focus of a number of paleoclimate studies. Here, we used the stalagmite KM-1 from Mawmluh cave to reconstruct climate variability during the last glacial-interglacial transition from 22 to 6 ka. For the first time, molecular proxy data (TEX86 and MBT/CBT derived from isoprenoid and branched GDGTs respectively) were coupled to stable isotope records (δ13C and δ18O) and compared to other speleothem records in Asia. ISM system abruptly transition between a suppressed and active state which is associated to changes in vegetation and thus shifts in δ13C. The abrupt δ13C shift observed in our record indicate changes to wetter climate in the Holocene, which are coupled to increase in abundance of GDGTs indicating higher production and/or transfer to KM-1. The TEX86-derived temperature roughly follows the glaciation-deglaciation cycle and Holocene changes. The TEX86 results show good correspondence with the δ18O records for temperature highlighting the potential for the use of molecular proxy in speleothem based climate reconstructions. While the MBT/CBT proxy is also defined as a temperature proxy it is not coupled with δ18O patterns, and thus shows no clear temperature signal. A decoupling between MBT/CBT from soils and the connected speleothems as well as a precipitation-moisture effect on this proxy have been previously reported. In this particular case the MBT/CBT seems to be better related to precipitation-monsoon changes, and thus warrant further exploration as a complementary proxy to isotope records for monsoon strength.

Multi-hazard risk assessment applied to hydraulic fracturing operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Gasparini, Paolo; Russo, Raffaella; Capuano, Paolo

2017-04-01

Without exception, the exploitation of any energy resource produces impacts and intrinsically bears risks. Therefore, to make sound decisions about future energy resource exploitation, it is important to clearly understand the potential environmental impacts in the full life-cycle of an energy development project, distinguishing between the specific impacts intrinsically related to exploiting a given energy resource and those shared with the exploitation of other energy resources. Technological advances as directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have led to a rapid expansion of unconventional resources (UR) exploration and exploitation; as a consequence, both public health and environmental concerns have risen. The main objective of a multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR is to assess the rate (or the likelihood) of occurrence of incidents and the relative potential impacts on surrounding environment, considering different hazards and their interactions. Such analyses have to be performed considering the different stages of development of a project; however, the discussion in this paper is mainly focused on the analysis applied to the hydraulic fracturing stage of a UR development project. The multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR poses a number of challenges, making of this one a particularly complex problem. First, a number of external hazards might be considered as potential triggering mechanisms. Such hazards can be either of natural origin or anthropogenic events caused by the same industrial activities. Second, failures might propagate through the industrial elements, leading to complex scenarios according to the layout of the industrial site. Third, there is a number of potential risk receptors, ranging from environmental elements (as the air, soil, surface water, or groundwater) to local communities and ecosystems. The multi-hazard risk approach for this problem is set by considering multiple hazards (and their possible interactions) as possible sources of system's perturbation that might drive to the development of an incidental event. Given the complexity of the problem, we adopt a multi-level approach: first, perform a qualitative analysis oriented to the identification of a wide range of possible scenarios; this process is based on a review of potential impacts in different risk receptors reported in literature, which is condensed in a number of causal diagrams created for different stages of a UR development project. Second, the most important scenarios for quantitative multi-hazard risk analyses are selected for further quantification. This selection is based on the identification of major risks, i.e., those related with the occurrence of low probability/high impact extreme events. The general framework for the quantitative multi-hazard risk analysis is represented using a so-called bow-tie structure. It is composed of a fault tree on the left hand side of the graphic plot, identifying the possible events causing the critical (or top) event, and an event tree on the right-hand side showing the possible consequences of the critical event. This work was supported under SHEER: "Shale Gas Exploration and Exploitation Induced Risks" project n.640896, funded from Horizon 2020 - R&I Framework Programme, call H2020-LCE-2014-1

Towards drought risk mapping on a pan-European scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, Veit; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Stahl, Kerstin; Seneviratne, Sonia

2014-05-01

Drought is a very complex and multifarious natural hazard, which causes a variety of direct and indirect environmental and socio-economic impacts. For the last 30 years, droughts in Europe caused over 100 billion Euros of losses from impacts in various sectors e.g. agriculture, water quality or energy production. Despite the apparent importance of this hazard observed pan-European drought impacts have not yet been quantitatively related to the most important climatological drivers. Fundamentally, a common approach to describe drought risk on a pan-European scale is still missing. This contribution presents an approach for linking climatological drought indices with observed drought impacts at the European scale. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for different time scales were calculated based on E-OBS data and are used to describe the drought hazard. Data from the European Drought Impact Inventory (EDII) compiled by the EU FP7 Drought R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing) project are used as a proxy for multi-sectorial (impact categories) vulnerability following the assumption that a reported impact reflects a region's vulnerability to the hazard. Drought risk is then modelled statistically by applying logistic regression to estimate the probability of impact report occurrence as a function of SPI and SPEI. This approach finally allows to map the probability of drought impact occurrence on a year by year basis. The emerging patterns compare well to many known European drought events. Such maps may become an essential component of Drought Risk Management to foster resilience for this hazard at the large scale.

Development of a Benthic Macroinvertebrate Multimetric Index (MMI) for Neotropical Savanna Headwater Streams

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the ecological impacts of anthropogenic pressures is a key task in environmental management. Multimetric indices (MMIs), based on aquatic assemblage responses to anthropogenic pressures, have been used increasingly throughout the world. The MMI approach is a low-cost, r...

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

PubMed Central

Jones, Miranda C.; Dye, Stephen R.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Pinnegar, John K.; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W. L.

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina). PMID:23349829

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

PubMed

Jones, Miranda C; Dye, Stephen R; Fernandes, Jose A; Frölicher, Thomas L; Pinnegar, John K; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W L

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).

Environmental conditions influence tissue regeneration rates in scleractinian corals.

PubMed

Sabine, Alexis M; Smith, Tyler B; Williams, Dana E; Brandt, Marilyn E

2015-06-15

Natural and anthropogenic factors may influence corals' ability to recover from partial mortality. To examine how environmental conditions affect lesion healing, we assessed several water quality parameters and tissue regeneration rates in corals at six reefs around St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands. We hypothesized that sites closer to developed areas would have poor water quality due to proximity to anthropogenic stresses, which would impede tissue regeneration. We found that water flow and turbidity most strongly influenced lesion recovery rates. The most impacted site, with high turbidity and low flow, recovered almost three times slower than the least impacted site, with low turbidity, high flow, and low levels of anthropogenic disturbance. Our results illustrate that in addition to lesion-specific factors known to affect tissue regeneration, environmental conditions can also control corals' healing rates. Resource managers can use this information to protect low-flow, turbid nearshore reefs by minimizing sources of anthropogenic stress. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR MULTI-SCALAR ASSESSMENTS OF ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY

EPA Science Inventory

A conceptual model was developed that relates an estuarine system's anthropogenic inputs to it's ecological integrity. Ecological integrity is operationally defined as an emergent property of an ecosystem that exists when the structural components are complete and the functional ...

Quantitative identification and source apportionment of anthropogenic heavy metals in marine sediment of Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Feng; Guo, Huaicheng; Liu, Lei

2007-10-01

Based on ten heavy metals collected twice annually at 59 sites from 1998 to 2004, enrichment factors (EFs), principal component analysis (PCA) and multivariate linear regression of absolute principal component scores (MLR-APCS) were used in identification and source apportionment of the anthropogenic heavy metals in marine sediment. EFs with Fe as a normalizer and local background as reference values was properly tested and suitable in Hong Kong, and Zn, Ni, Pb, Cu, Cd, Hg and Cr mainly originated from anthropogenic sources, while Al, Mn and Fe were derived from rocks weathering. Rotated PCA and GIS mapping further identified two types of anthropogenic sources and their impacted regions: (1) electronic industrial pollution, riparian runoff and vehicle exhaust impacted the entire Victoria Harbour, inner Tolo Harbour, Eastern Buffer, inner Deep Bay and Cheung Chau; and (2) discharges from textile factories and paint, influenced Tsuen Wan Bay and Kwun Tong typhoon shelter and Rambler Channel. In addition, MLR-APCS was successfully introduced to quantitatively determine the source contributions with uncertainties almost less than 8%: the first anthropogenic sources were responsible for 50.0, 45.1, 86.6, 78.9 and 87.5% of the Zn, Pb, Cu, Cd and Hg, respectively, whereas 49.9% of the Ni and 58.4% of the Cr came from the second anthropogenic sources.

Ventilation variability of Labrador Sea Water and its impact on oxygen and anthropogenic carbon: a review.

PubMed

Rhein, Monika; Steinfeldt, Reiner; Kieke, Dagmar; Stendardo, Ilaria; Yashayaev, Igor

2017-09-13

Ventilation of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) receives ample attention because of its potential relation to the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, we provide an overview of the changes of LSW from observations in the Labrador Sea and from the southern boundary of the subpolar gyre at 47° N. A strong winter-time atmospheric cooling over the Labrador Sea led to intense and deep convection, producing a thick and dense LSW layer as, for instance, in the early to mid-1990s. The weaker convection in the following years mostly ventilated less dense LSW vintages and also reduced the supply of oxygen. As a further consequence, the rate of uptake of anthropogenic carbon by LSW decreased between the two time periods 1996-1999 and 2007-2010 in the western subpolar North Atlantic. In the eastern basins, the rate of increase in anthropogenic carbon became greater due to the delayed advection of LSW that was ventilated in previous years. Starting in winter 2013/2014 and prevailing at least into winter 2015/2016, production of denser and more voluminous LSW resumed. Increasing oxygen signals have already been found in the western boundary current at 47° N. On decadal and shorter time scales, anomalous cold atmospheric conditions over the Labrador Sea lead to an intensification of convection. On multi-decadal time scales, the 'cold blob' in the subpolar North Atlantic projected by climate models in the next 100 years is linked to a weaker AMOC and weaker convection (and thus deoxygenation) in the Labrador Sea.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).