Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Loads to Freshwater and Associated Grey Water Footprints and Water Pollution Levels: A High-Resolution Global Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

2018-01-01

We estimate the global anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loads to freshwater and the associated grey water footprints (GWFs) for the period 2002-2010, at a spatial resolution of 5 × 5 arc min, and compare the GWF per river basin to runoff to assess the P-related water pollution level (WPL). The global anthropogenic P load to freshwater systems from both diffuse and point sources is estimated at 1.5 Tg/yr. More than half of this total load was in Asia, followed by Europe (19%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (13%). The domestic sector contributed 54% to the total, agriculture 38%, and industry 8%. In agriculture, cereals production had the largest contribution to the P load (31%), followed by fruits, vegetables, and oil crops, each contributing 15%. The global total GWF related to anthropogenic P loads is estimated to be 147 × 1012 m3/yr, with China contributing 30%, India 8%, USA 7%, and Spain and Brazil 6% each. The basins with WPL > 1 (where GWF exceeds the basin's assimilation capacity) together cover about 38% of the global land area, 37% of the global river discharge, and provide residence to about 90% of the global population.

Quantifying Anthropogenic Dust Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Nicholas P.; Pierre, Caroline

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change, including local environmental disturbances, moderate rates of wind-driven soil erosion and dust emission. These human-dust cycle interactions impact ecosystems and agricultural production, air quality, human health, biogeochemical cycles, and climate. While the impacts of land use activities and land management on aeolian processes can be profound, the interactions are often complex and assessments of anthropogenic dust loads at all scales remain highly uncertain. Here, we critically review the drivers of anthropogenic dust emission and current evaluation approaches. We then identify and describe opportunities to: (1) develop new conceptual frameworks and interdisciplinary approaches that draw on ecological state-and-transition models to improve the accuracy and relevance of assessments of anthropogenic dust emissions; (2) improve model fidelity and capacity for change detection to quantify anthropogenic impacts on aeolian processes; and (3) enhance field research and monitoring networks to support dust model applications to evaluate the impacts of disturbance processes on local to global-scale wind erosion and dust emissions.

Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Loads to Fresh Water, Grey Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels: A High-Resolution Global Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y. Y.

2014-12-01

We estimated anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loads to freshwater, globally at a spatial resolution level of 5 by 5 arc minute. The global anthropogenic P load to freshwater systems from both diffuse and point sources in the period 2002-2010 was 1.5 million tonnes per year. China contributed about 30% to this global anthropogenic P load. India was the second largest contributor (8%), followed by the USA (7%), Spain and Brazil each contributing 6% to the total. The domestic sector contributed the largest share (54%) to this total followed by agriculture (38%) and industry (8%). Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the P loads (32%), followed by fruits, vegetables, and oil crops, each contributing about 15% to the total. We also calculated the resultant grey water footprints, and relate the grey water footprints per river basin to runoff to calculate the P-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment.

Application of satellite observations for timely updates to global anthropogenic NOx emission inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamsal, L. N.; Martin, R. V.; Padmanabhan, A.; van Donkelaar, A.; Zhang, Q.; Sioris, C. E.; Chance, K.; Kurosu, T. P.; Newchurch, M. J.

2011-03-01

Anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) can change rapidly due to economic growth or control measures. Bottom-up emissions estimated using source-specific emission factors and activity statistics require years to compile and can become quickly outdated. We present a method to use satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns to estimate changes in NOx emissions. We use tropospheric NO2 columns retrieved from the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument for 2003-2009, the response of tropospheric NO2 columns to changes in NOx emissions determined from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), and the bottom-up anthropogenic NOx emissions for 2006 to hindcast and forecast the inventories. We evaluate our approach by comparing bottom-up and hindcast emissions for 2003. The two inventories agree within 6.0% globally and within 8.9% at the regional scale with consistent trends in western Europe, North America, and East Asia. We go on to forecast emissions for 2009. During 2006-2009, anthropogenic NOx emissions over land increase by 9.2% globally and by 18.8% from East Asia. North American emissions decrease by 5.7%.

Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimont, Zbigniew; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Heyes, Chris; Purohit, Pallav; Cofala, Janusz; Rafaj, Peter; Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Schöpp, Wolfgang

2017-07-01

This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990-2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5° × 0.5° longitude-latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion

A global ocean inventory of anthropogenic mercury based on water column measurements.

PubMed

Lamborg, Carl H; Hammerschmidt, Chad R; Bowman, Katlin L; Swarr, Gretchen J; Munson, Kathleen M; Ohnemus, Daniel C; Lam, Phoebe J; Heimbürger, Lars-Eric; Rijkenberg, Micha J A; Saito, Mak A

2014-08-07

Mercury is a toxic, bioaccumulating trace metal whose emissions to the environment have increased significantly as a result of anthropogenic activities such as mining and fossil fuel combustion. Several recent models have estimated that these emissions have increased the oceanic mercury inventory by 36-1,313 million moles since the 1500s. Such predictions have remained largely untested owing to a lack of appropriate historical data and natural archives. Here we report oceanographic measurements of total dissolved mercury and related parameters from several recent expeditions to the Atlantic, Pacific, Southern and Arctic oceans. We find that deep North Atlantic waters and most intermediate waters are anomalously enriched in mercury relative to the deep waters of the South Atlantic, Southern and Pacific oceans, probably as a result of the incorporation of anthropogenic mercury. We estimate the total amount of anthropogenic mercury present in the global ocean to be 290 ± 80 million moles, with almost two-thirds residing in water shallower than a thousand metres. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic perturbations to the global mercury cycle have led to an approximately 150 per cent increase in the amount of mercury in thermocline waters and have tripled the mercury content of surface waters compared to pre-anthropogenic conditions. This information may aid our understanding of the processes and the depths at which inorganic mercury species are converted into toxic methyl mercury and subsequently bioaccumulated in marine food webs.

Global analysis of anthropogenic debris ingestion by sea turtles.

PubMed

Schuyler, Qamar; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy

2014-02-01

Ingestion of marine debris can have lethal and sublethal effects on sea turtles and other wildlife. Although researchers have reported on ingestion of anthropogenic debris by marine turtles and implied incidences of debris ingestion have increased over time, there has not been a global synthesis of the phenomenon since 1985. Thus, we analyzed 37 studies published from 1985 to 2012 that report on data collected from before 1900 through 2011. Specifically, we investigated whether ingestion prevalence has changed over time, what types of debris are most commonly ingested, the geographic distribution of debris ingestion by marine turtles relative to global debris distribution, and which species and life-history stages are most likely to ingest debris. The probability of green (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) ingesting debris increased significantly over time, and plastic was the most commonly ingested debris. Turtles in nearly all regions studied ingest debris, but the probability of ingestion was not related to modeled debris densities. Furthermore, smaller, oceanic-stage turtles were more likely to ingest debris than coastal foragers, whereas carnivorous species were less likely to ingest debris than herbivores or gelatinovores. Our results indicate oceanic leatherback turtles and green turtles are at the greatest risk of both lethal and sublethal effects from ingested marine debris. To reduce this risk, anthropogenic debris must be managed at a global level. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Observational and modeling constraints on global anthropogenic enrichment of mercury.

PubMed

Amos, Helen M; Sonke, Jeroen E; Obrist, Daniel; Robins, Nicholas; Hagan, Nicole; Horowitz, Hannah M; Mason, Robert P; Witt, Melanie; Hedgecock, Ian M; Corbitt, Elizabeth S; Sunderland, Elsie M

2015-04-07

Centuries of anthropogenic releases have resulted in a global legacy of mercury (Hg) contamination. Here we use a global model to quantify the impact of uncertainty in Hg atmospheric emissions and cycling on anthropogenic enrichment and discuss implications for future Hg levels. The plausibility of sensitivity simulations is evaluated against multiple independent lines of observation, including natural archives and direct measurements of present-day environmental Hg concentrations. It has been previously reported that pre-industrial enrichment recorded in sediment and peat disagree by more than a factor of 10. We find this difference is largely erroneous and caused by comparing peat and sediment against different reference time periods. After correcting this inconsistency, median enrichment in Hg accumulation since pre-industrial 1760 to 1880 is a factor of 4.3 for peat and 3.0 for sediment. Pre-industrial accumulation in peat and sediment is a factor of ∼ 5 greater than the precolonial era (3000 BC to 1550 AD). Model scenarios that omit atmospheric emissions of Hg from early mining are inconsistent with observational constraints on the present-day atmospheric, oceanic, and soil Hg reservoirs, as well as the magnitude of enrichment in archives. Future reductions in anthropogenic emissions will initiate a decline in atmospheric concentrations within 1 year, but stabilization of subsurface and deep ocean Hg levels requires aggressive controls. These findings are robust to the ranges of uncertainty in past emissions and Hg cycling.

Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

2013-11-01

This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

The eMLR(C*) Method to Determine Decadal Changes in the Global Ocean Storage of Anthropogenic CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clement, Dominic; Gruber, Nicolas

2018-04-01

The determination of the decadal change in anthropogenic CO2 in the global ocean from repeat hydrographic surveys represents a formidable challenge, which we address here by introducing a seamless new method. This method builds on the extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) approach to identify the anthropogenic CO2 signal, but in order to improve the robustness of this method, we fit C∗ rather than dissolved inorganic carbon and use a probabilistic method for the selection of the predictors. In order to account for the multiyear nature of the surveys, we adjust all C∗ observations of a particular observing period to a common reference year by assuming a transient steady state. We finally use the eMLR models together with global gridded climatological distributions of the predictors to map the estimated change in anthropogenic CO2 to the global ocean. Testing this method with synthetic data generated from a hindcast simulation with an ocean model reveals that the method is able to reconstruct the change in anthropogenic CO2 with only a small global bias (<5%). Within ocean basins, the errors can be larger, mostly driven by changes in ocean circulation. Overall, we conclude from the model that the method has an accuracy of retrieving the column integrated change in anthropogenic CO2 of about ±10% at the scale of whole ocean basins. We expect that this uncertainty needs to be doubled to about ±20% when the change in anthropogenic CO2 is reconstructed from observations.

Global Scale Attribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Dust Sources and their Emission Rates Based on MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

2012-01-01

Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1 deg) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

Estimation of the Anthropogenic Dust Emission at Global Scale from 2007 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S.; Huang, J.; Jiang, N.

2017-12-01

Dust emission refers to the spatial displacement of dust particles by the wind forcing, which is a key component of the dust circulation. It plays an important role in energy, hydrological and carbon cycle in the Earth system. However, most of the dust emission schemes only considered the natural dust, neglecting the anthropogenic dust induced by human activities, which led to the large uncertainties in the quantitative estimations of dust emission in the numerical modeling. In order to fully consider the mechanism of anthropogenic dust emission, the "indrect" and "direct" anthropogenic dust emission schemes were constructed and developed in the study. Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) retrievals were used to evaluate the simulations at global scales. The results showed that the schemes reasonably reproduced the spatio-temporal distributions of anthropogenic dust from 2007 to 2010. The high centers of anthropogenic dust emission flux appeared in India, east of China, North America and Africa with a value of 12 μg m-2 s-1. For the indirect anthropogenic dust emission, it has an obvious seasonal variations, with maximum in spring and winter, while minimum in summer. Compared with the cropland, pastureland (including pastures and artificially sparse grasslands) has the higher potential anthropogenic dust emission, with emission of approximately 4.7 μg m-2 s-1, accounting for 39% of the total anthropogenic dust emission. Moreover, the direct anthropogenic dust emission is larger than the indirect dust emission at gobal scale. Especially when the increasing vegetation coverage in summer, the contribution of the direct anthropogenic dust emission flux can reach up to about 75.2%. It demonstrates that the environmental problems caused by urban anthropogenic dust can not be ignored.

University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2017-01-01

This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching.…

The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution.

PubMed

Silva, Raquel A; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M; West, J Jason

2016-11-01

Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration-response function for ozone and an integrated exposure-response model for PM2.5. We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally-675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year-and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution-related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA, Adelman Z, Fry MM, West JJ. 2016. The impact of individual

Mapping the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic mercury atmospheric emission inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Simon J.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.

This paper describes the procedures employed to spatially distribute global inventories of anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere, prepared by Pacyna, E.G., Pacyna, J.M., Steenhuisen, F., Wilson, S. [2006. Global anthropogenic mercury emission inventory for 2000. Atmospheric Environment, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.03.041], and briefly discusses the results of this work. A new spatially distributed global emission inventory for the (nominal) year 2000, and a revised version of the 1995 inventory are presented. Emissions estimates for total mercury and major species groups are distributed within latitude/longitude-based grids with a resolution of 1×1 and 0.5×0.5°. A key component in the spatial distribution procedure is the use of population distribution as a surrogate parameter to distribute emissions from sources that cannot be accurately geographically located. In this connection, new gridded population datasets were prepared, based on the CEISIN GPW3 datasets (CIESIN, 2004. Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 3. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). GPW3 data are available at http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/index.jsp). The spatially distributed emissions inventories and population datasets prepared in the course of this work are available on the Internet at www.amap.no/Resources/HgEmissions/

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model

PubMed Central

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Molina, Mario J.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol–climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by −2.5 and +1.3 W m−2, respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors’ knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. PMID:24733923

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

PubMed

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H; Molina, Mario J

2014-05-13

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale.

Enhanced acidification of global coral reefs driven by regional biogeochemical feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cyronak, Tyler; Schulz, Kai G.; Santos, Isaac R.; Eyre, Bradley D.

2014-08-01

Physical uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is the dominant driver of ocean acidification (OA) in the open ocean. Due to expected decreases in calcification and increased dissolution of CaCO3 framework, coral reefs are thought to be highly susceptible to OA. However, biogeochemical processes can influence the pCO2 and pH of coastal ecosystems on diel and seasonal time scales, potentially modifying the long-term effects of increasing atmospheric CO2. By compiling data from the literature and removing the effects of short-term variability, we show that the average pCO2 of coral reefs throughout the globe has increased ~3.5-fold faster than in the open ocean over the past 20 years. This rapid increase in pCO2 has the potential to enhance the acidification and predicted effects of OA on coral reef ecosystems. A simple model demonstrates that potential drivers of elevated pCO2 include additional anthropogenic disturbances beyond increasing global atmospheric CO2 such as enhanced nutrient and organic matter inputs.

Assembling the Anthropocene: The global significance of anthropogenic sediment flux through the creation of artificial ground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, S.; Ford, J. R.; Waters, C. N.; Cooper, A. H.

2012-12-01

Deliberate, current and historical modification of the landscape and its subsurface by humans creates novel sediments and landforms in the form of artificial ground. The rate and magnitude of artificial ground created through the excavation, transport and deposition of mixtures of rock and soil has varied through time, but it is now significant on a global scale. It is estimated that the annual deliberate anthropogenic movement of rock and soil exceeds that of sediment transfer to the oceans by a factor of three (Douglas & Lawson 2001). In the UK alone, it is estimated that 66 530 M (Million) tonnes (ca. 40 km3) of material has been moved in response to mineral exploitation and processing over ca. 200 years (Price et al. 2011). This compares to an estimated global annual 57 000 M tonnes of material being moved deliberately by humans (Douglas & Lawson 2001). The scale of early mineral workings and land domestication for food production rapidly expanded as human population grew. Subsequent industrialisation, burning of fossil fuels and increased urbanisation in developed countries escalated the demand for diverse natural resources and the scale of land transformation. Mineral extraction and processing make up a significant proportion of the global anthropogenic sediment cycle. Mineral production offers a key indicator of the magnitude and rate of anthropogenic change and its impact on global sediment flux. Wastes from mineral production constitute 'hidden flows' when accounting for anthropogenic sediment flux (Douglas & Lawson 2001) but are often significant. The amount of waste produced during mineral exploitation often exceeds the amount of ore won by up to, and sometimes exceeding, a factor of 30. Using key commodity indicators, including coal and iron ore, distinct trends in the rates and volumes of mineral production are calculated and observed. The volume of production and associated hidden flows of anthropogenic sediments is observed to increase rapidly ca

Anthropogenic Transformation of the Biomes, 1700 to 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.; Lightman, D.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Ramankutty, N.

2008-12-01

Current global patterns of terrestrial ecosystem form and process are now predominantly anthropogenic as a result of land use and other direct human interactions with ecosystems. This study investigates anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere over the course of the industrial revolution by mapping and characterizing global transitions between wild and anthropogenic biomes between 1700 and 2000. A global map of potential natural vegetation was used to represent wild biomes. Anthropogenic biomes were mapped for 1700, 1800, 1900 and 2000 using rule-based classification of current and historical global data for human population density, urban area and percent land cover by cultivated crops (rainfed, irrigated, and rice) and pastures. By assuming that wild, climate-driven, biome patterns have been relatively constant since 1700, transitions between wild and anthropogenic biomes were characterized between 1700 and 2000 at century intervals. Historical analysis of wild to anthropogenic biome transitions reveal the global transition from a primarily wild to a primarily anthropogenic terrestrial biosphere. Moreover, by mapping and examining global transitions between wild and anthropogenic biome classes, we provide a simple framework for assessing and modeling both past and future global biotic and ecological patterns in the light of the extent, intensity and duration of their modification by humans.

The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution

PubMed Central

Silva, Raquel A.; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M.; West, J. Jason

2016-01-01

Background: Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. Objectives: We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. Methods: We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration–response function for ozone and an integrated exposure–response model for PM2.5. Results: We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally—675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year—and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). Conclusions: The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution–related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA

GLOBAL METHANE EMISSIONS FROM MINOR ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES AND BIOFUEL COMBUSTION IN RESIDENTIAL STOVES (JOURNAL)

EPA Science Inventory

Most global methane (CH4) budgets have failed to include emissions from a diverse group of minor anthropogenic sources. Individually, these minor sources emit small quantities of CH4, but collectively, their contributions to the budget may be significant. In this paper, CH4 emiss...

Marine Socio-Environmental Covariates: queryable global layers of environmental and anthropogenic variables for marine ecosystem studies.

PubMed

Yeager, Lauren A; Marchand, Philippe; Gill, David A; Baum, Julia K; McPherson, Jana M

2017-07-01

Biophysical conditions, including climate, environmental stress, and habitat availability, are key drivers of many ecological processes (e.g., community assembly and productivity) and associated ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and fishery production). Furthermore, anthropogenic impacts such as coastal development and fishing can have drastic effects on the structure and function of marine ecosystems. Scientists need to account for environmental variation and human impacts to accurately model, manage, and conserve marine ecosystems. Although there are many types of environmental data available from global remote sensing and open-source data products, some are inaccessible to potential end-users because they exist as global layers in high temporal and spatial resolutions which require considerable computational power to process. Additionally, coastal locations often suffer from missing data or data quality issues which limit the utility of some global marine products for coastal sites. Herein we present the Marine Socio-Environmental Covariates dataset for the global oceans, which consists of environmental and anthropogenic variables summarized in ecologically relevant ways. The dataset includes four sets of environmental variables related to biophysical conditions (net primary productivity models corrected for shallow-water reflectance, wave energy including sheltered-coastline corrections) and landscape context (coral reef and land cover within varying radii). We also present two sets of anthropogenic variables, human population density (within varying radii) and distance to large population center, which can serve as indicators of local human impacts. We have paired global, summarized layers available for download with an online data querying platform that allows users to extract data for specific point locations with finer control of summary statistics. In creating these global layers and online platform, we hope to make the data accessible to a

Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Müller, Alfred; Zorita, Eduardo; Riva, Riccardo; Berk, Kevin; Jensen, Jürgen

2015-07-01

While there is scientific consensus that global and local mean sea level (GMSL and LMSL) has risen since the late nineteenth century, the relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic forcing remains unclear. Here we provide a probabilistic upper range of long-term persistent natural GMSL/LMSL variability (P=0.99), which in turn, determines the minimum/maximum anthropogenic contribution since 1900. To account for different spectral characteristics of various contributing processes, we separate LMSL into two components: a slowly varying volumetric component and a more rapidly changing atmospheric component. We find that the persistence of slow natural volumetric changes is underestimated in records where transient atmospheric processes dominate the spectrum. This leads to a local underestimation of possible natural trends of up to ~1 mm per year erroneously enhancing the significance of anthropogenic footprints. The GMSL, however, remains unaffected by such biases. On the basis of a model assessment of the separate components, we conclude that it is virtually certain (P=0.99) that at least 45% of the observed increase in GMSL is of anthropogenic origin.

Mapping 1995 global anthropogenic emissions of mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Wilson, Simon

This paper presents maps of anthropogenic Hg emissions worldwide within a 1°×1° latitude/longitude grid system in 1995. As such, the paper is designed for modelers simulating the Hg transport within air masses and Hg deposition to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Maps of total Hg emissions and its three main chemical species: elemental gaseous Hg, divalent gaseous Hg, and particle-associated Hg are presented. The main emissions occur in southeast Asia (particularly in China), South Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Eastern United States. These are the regions where coal combustion is the main source of electricity and heat production. Waste incineration adds to these emissions in the Eastern United States. Emissions of total Hg and its three species are quite similar in terms of their (global) spatial distributions. They reflect the worldwide distribution of coal consumption in large power plants, industrial burners, and small combustion units, such as residential and commercial furnaces.

Detection of anthropogenic dust using CALIPSO lidar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Liu, J.; Chen, B.; Nasiri, S. L.

2015-04-01

Anthropogenic dusts are those produced by human activities on disturbed soils, which are mainly cropland, pasture, and urbanized regions and are a subset of the total dust load which includes natural sources from desert regions. Our knowledge of anthropogenic dusts is still very limited due to a lack of data on source distribution and magnitude, and on their effect on radiative forcing which may be comparable to other anthropogenic aerosols. To understand the contribution of anthropogenic dust to the total global dust load and its effect on radiative transfer and climate, it is important to identify them from total dust. In this study, a new technique for distinguishing anthropogenic dust from natural dust is proposed by using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) dust and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height retrievals along with a land use dataset. Using this technique, the global distribution of dust is analyzed and the relative contribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources to regional and global emissions are estimated. Results reveal that local anthropogenic dust aerosol due to human activity, such as agriculture, industrial activity, transportation, and overgrazing, accounts for about 25% of the global continental dust load. Of these anthropogenic dust aerosols, more than 53% come from semi-arid and semi-wet regions. Annual mean anthropogenic dust column burden (DCB) values range from 0.42 g m-2 with a maximum in India to 0.12 g m-2 with a minimum in North America. A better understanding of anthropogenic dust emission will enable us to focus on human activities in these critical regions and with such knowledge we will be better able to improve global dust models and to explore the effects of anthropogenic emission on radiative forcing, climate change and air quality in the future.

Detection of anthropogenic dust using CALIPSO lidar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J. P.; Liu, J. J.; Chen, B.; Nasiri, S. L.

2015-10-01

Anthropogenic dusts are those produced by human activities on disturbed soils, which are mainly cropland, pastureland, and urbanized regions, and are a subset of the total dust load which includes natural sources from desert regions. Our knowledge of anthropogenic dusts is still very limited due to a lack of data. To understand the contribution of anthropogenic dust to the total global dust load, it is important to identify it apart from total dust. In this study, a new technique for distinguishing anthropogenic dust from natural dust is proposed by using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) dust and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height retrievals along with a land use data set. Using this technique, the global distribution of dust is analyzed and the relative contribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources to regional and global emissions are estimated. Results reveal that local anthropogenic dust aerosol due to human activity, such as agriculture, industrial activity, transportation, and overgrazing, accounts for about 25 % of the global continental dust load. Of these anthropogenic dust aerosols, more than 53 % come from semi-arid and semi-wet regions. Annual mean anthropogenic dust column burden (DCB) values range from 0.42 g m-2, with a maximum in India, to 0.12 g m-2, with a minimum in North America. A better understanding of anthropogenic dust emission will enable us to focus on human activities in these critical regions and with such knowledge we will be more able to improve global dust models and to explore the effects of anthropogenic emission on radiative forcing, climate change, and air quality in the future.

Mapping the global journey of anthropogenic aluminum: a trade-linked multilevel material flow analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Gang; Müller, Daniel B

2013-10-15

Material cycles have become increasingly coupled and interconnected in a globalizing era. While material flow analysis (MFA) has been widely used to characterize stocks and flows along technological life cycle within a specific geographical area, trade networks among individual cycles have remained largely unexplored. Here we developed a trade-linked multilevel MFA model to map the contemporary global journey of anthropogenic aluminum. We demonstrate that the anthropogenic aluminum cycle depends substantially on international trade of aluminum in all forms and becomes highly interconnected in nature. While the Southern hemisphere is the main primary resource supplier, aluminum production and consumption concentrate in the Northern hemisphere, where we also find the largest potential for recycling. The more developed countries tend to have a substantial and increasing presence throughout the stages after bauxite refining and possess highly consumption-based cycles, thus maintaining advantages both economically and environmentally. A small group of countries plays a key role in the global redistribution of aluminum and in the connectivity of the network, which may render some countries vulnerable to supply disruption. The model provides potential insights to inform government and industry policies in resource criticality, supply chain security, value chain management, and cross-boundary environmental impacts mitigation.

Does Climate Literacy Matter? A Case Study of U.S. Students' Level of Concern about Anthropogenic Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bedford, Daniel

2016-01-01

Educators seeking to address global warming in their classrooms face numerous challenges, including the question of whether student opinions about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) can change in response to increased knowledge about the climate system. This article analyzes survey responses from 458 students at a primarily undergraduate…

Implications of overestimated anthropogenic CO2 emissions on East Asian and global land CO2 flux inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeki, Tazu; Patra, Prabir K.

2017-12-01

Measurement and modelling of regional or country-level carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are becoming critical for verification of the greenhouse gases emission control. One of the commonly adopted approaches is inverse modelling, where CO2 fluxes (emission: positive flux, sink: negative flux) from the terrestrial ecosystems are estimated by combining atmospheric CO2 measurements with atmospheric transport models. The inverse models assume anthropogenic emissions are known, and thus the uncertainties in the emissions introduce systematic bias in estimation of the terrestrial (residual) fluxes by inverse modelling. Here we show that the CO2 sink increase, estimated by the inverse model, over East Asia (China, Japan, Korea and Mongolia), by about 0.26 PgC year-1 (1 Pg = 1012 g) during 2001-2010, is likely to be an artifact of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing too quickly in China by 1.41 PgC year-1. Independent results from methane (CH4) inversion suggested about 41% lower rate of East Asian CH4 emission increase during 2002-2012. We apply a scaling factor of 0.59, based on CH4 inversion, to the rate of anthropogenic CO2 emission increase since the anthropogenic emissions of both CO2 and CH4 increase linearly in the emission inventory. We find no systematic increase in land CO2 uptake over East Asia during 1993-2010 or 2000-2009 when scaled anthropogenic CO2 emissions are used, and that there is a need of higher emission increase rate for 2010-2012 compared to those calculated by the inventory methods. High bias in anthropogenic CO2 emissions leads to stronger land sinks in global land-ocean flux partitioning in our inverse model. The corrected anthropogenic CO2 emissions also produce measurable reductions in the rate of global land CO2 sink increase post-2002, leading to a better agreement with the terrestrial biospheric model simulations that include CO2-fertilization and climate effects.

Radiative absorption enhancement of dust mixed with anthropogenic pollution over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Pengfei; Zhang, Lei; Ma, Jianmin; Tang, Kai; Xu, Lili; Wang, Yuan; Cao, Xianjie; Liang, Jiening; Ji, Yuemeng; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Yung, Yuk L.; Zhang, Renyi

2018-06-01

The particle mixing state plays a significant yet poorly quantified role in aerosol radiative forcing, especially for the mixing of dust (mineral absorbing) and anthropogenic pollution (black carbon absorbing) over East Asia. We have investigated the absorption enhancement of mixed-type aerosols over East Asia by using the Aerosol Robotic Network observations and radiative transfer model calculations. The mixed-type aerosols exhibit significantly enhanced absorbing ability than the corresponding unmixed dust and anthropogenic aerosols, as revealed in the spectral behavior of absorbing aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, and imaginary refractive index. The aerosol radiative efficiencies for the dust, mixed-type, and anthropogenic aerosols are -101.0, -112.9, and -98.3 Wm-2 τ-1 at the bottom of the atmosphere (BOA); -42.3, -22.5, and -39.8 Wm-2 τ-1 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA); and 58.7, 90.3, and 58.5 Wm-2 τ-1 in the atmosphere (ATM), respectively. The BOA cooling and ATM heating efficiencies of the mixed-type aerosols are significantly higher than those of the unmixed aerosol types over the East Asia region, resulting in atmospheric stabilization. In addition, the mixed-type aerosols correspond to a lower TOA cooling efficiency, indicating that the cooling effect by the corresponding individual aerosol components is partially counteracted. We conclude that the interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollution not only represents a viable aerosol formation pathway but also results in unfavorable dispersion conditions, both exacerbating the regional air pollution in East Asia. Our results highlight the necessity to accurately account for the mixing state of aerosols in atmospheric models over East Asia in order to better understand the formation mechanism for regional air pollution and to assess its impacts on human health, weather, and climate.

Anthropogenic iron oxide aerosols enhance atmospheric heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moteki, Nobuhiro; Adachi, Kouji; Ohata, Sho; Yoshida, Atsushi; Harigaya, Tomoo; Koike, Makoto; Kondo, Yutaka

2017-05-01

Combustion-induced carbonaceous aerosols, particularly black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC), have been largely considered as the only significant anthropogenic contributors to shortwave atmospheric heating. Natural iron oxide (FeOx) has been recognized as an important contributor, but the potential contribution of anthropogenic FeOx is unknown. In this study, we quantify the abundance of FeOx over East Asia through aircraft measurements using a modified single-particle soot photometer. The majority of airborne FeOx particles in the continental outflows are of anthropogenic origin in the form of aggregated magnetite nanoparticles. The shortwave absorbing powers (Pabs) attributable to FeOx and to BC are calculated on the basis of their size-resolved mass concentrations and the mean Pabs(FeOx)/Pabs(BC) ratio in the continental outflows is estimated to be at least 4-7%. We demonstrate that in addition to carbonaceous aerosols the aggregate of magnetite nanoparticles is a significant anthropogenic contributor to shortwave atmospheric heating.

Anthropogenic iron oxide aerosols enhance atmospheric heating

PubMed Central

Moteki, Nobuhiro; Adachi, Kouji; Ohata, Sho; Yoshida, Atsushi; Harigaya, Tomoo; Koike, Makoto; Kondo, Yutaka

2017-01-01

Combustion-induced carbonaceous aerosols, particularly black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC), have been largely considered as the only significant anthropogenic contributors to shortwave atmospheric heating. Natural iron oxide (FeOx) has been recognized as an important contributor, but the potential contribution of anthropogenic FeOx is unknown. In this study, we quantify the abundance of FeOx over East Asia through aircraft measurements using a modified single-particle soot photometer. The majority of airborne FeOx particles in the continental outflows are of anthropogenic origin in the form of aggregated magnetite nanoparticles. The shortwave absorbing powers (Pabs) attributable to FeOx and to BC are calculated on the basis of their size-resolved mass concentrations and the mean Pabs(FeOx)/Pabs(BC) ratio in the continental outflows is estimated to be at least 4–7%. We demonstrate that in addition to carbonaceous aerosols the aggregate of magnetite nanoparticles is a significant anthropogenic contributor to shortwave atmospheric heating. PMID:28508863

Global Impacts of Gas-Phase Chemistry-Aerosol Interactions on Direct Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols and Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

2005-01-01

We present here a first global modeling study on the influence of gas-phase chemistry/aerosol interactions on estimates of anthropogenic forcing by tropospheric O3 and aerosols. Concentrations of gas-phase species and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols in the preindustrial, present-day, and year 2100 (IPCC SRES A2) atmospheres are simulated online in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II' (GISS GCM II'). With fully coupled chemistry and aerosols, the preindustrial, presentday, and year 2100 global burdens of tropospheric ozone are predicted to be 190, 319, and 519 Tg, respectively. The burdens of sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted respectively to be 0.32. 0.18, 0.01, 0.33 Tg in preindustrial time, 1.40, 0.48, 0.23, 1.60 Tg in presentday, and 1.37, 1.97, 0.54, 3.31 Tg in year 2100. Anthropogenic O3 is predicted to have a globally and annually averaged present-day forcing of +0.22 W m(sup -2) and year 2100 forcing of +0.57 W m(sup -2) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Net anthropogenic TOA forcing by internally mixed sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols is estimated to be virtually zero in the present-day and +0.34 W m(sup -2) in year 2100, whereas it is predicted to be -0.39 W m(sup -2) in present-day and -0.61 W m(sup -2) in year 2100 if the aerosols are externally mixed. Heterogeneous reactions are shown to be important in affecting anthropogenic forcing. When reactions of N2O5, NO3, NO2, and HO2 on aerosols are accounted for, TOA anthropogenic O3 forcing is less by 20-45% in present-day and by 20-32% in year 2100 at mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, as compared with values predicted in the absence of heterogeneous gas aerosol reactions. Mineral dust uptake of HNO3 and O3 is shown to have practically no influence on anthropogenic O3 forcing. Heterogeneous reactions of N2Os

First Global Estimates of Anthropogenic Shortwave Forcing by Methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, William; Feldman, Daniel; Kuo, Chaincy

2017-04-01

Although the primary well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) absorb both shortwave and longwave radiation, to date assessments of the effects from human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of WMGHGs have focused almost exclusively on quantifying the longwave radiative forcing of these gases. However, earlier studies have shown that the shortwave effects of WMGHGs are comparable to many less important longwave forcing agents routinely in these assessments, for example the effects of aircraft contrails, stratospheric anthropogenic methane, and stratospheric water vapor from the oxidation of this methane. These earlier studies include the Radiative Transfer Model Intercomparison Project (RTMIP; Collins et al. 2006) conducted using line-by-line radiative transfer codes as well as the radiative parameterizations from most of the global climate models (GCMs) assembled for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3). In this talk, we discuss the first global estimates of the shortwave radiative forcing by methane due to the anthropogenic increase in CH4 between pre-industrial and present-day conditions. This forcing is a balance between reduced heating due to absorption of downwelling sunlight in the stratosphere and increased heating due to absorption of upwelling sunlight reflected from the surface as well clouds and aerosols in the troposphere. These estimates are produced using the Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework we have developed for NASA's upcoming Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission. The OSSE is designed to compute the monthly mean shortwave radiative forcing based upon global gridded atmospheric and surface conditions extracted from either the meteorological reanalyses collected for the Analysis for MIPs (Ana4MIPs) or the CMIP-5 multi-GCM archive analyzed in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The OSSE combines these atmospheric

Global Analysis of Anthropogenic Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

PubMed Central

Schuyler, Qamar; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy

2014-01-01

Ingestion of marine debris can have lethal and sublethal effects on sea turtles and other wildlife. Although researchers have reported on ingestion of anthropogenic debris by marine turtles and implied incidences of debris ingestion have increased over time, there has not been a global synthesis of the phenomenon since 1985. Thus, we analyzed 37 studies published from 1985 to 2012 that report on data collected from before 1900 through 2011. Specifically, we investigated whether ingestion prevalence has changed over time, what types of debris are most commonly ingested, the geographic distribution of debris ingestion by marine turtles relative to global debris distribution, and which species and life-history stages are most likely to ingest debris. The probability of green (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) ingesting debris increased significantly over time, and plastic was the most commonly ingested debris. Turtles in nearly all regions studied ingest debris, but the probability of ingestion was not related to modeled debris densities. Furthermore, smaller, oceanic-stage turtles were more likely to ingest debris than coastal foragers, whereas carnivorous species were less likely to ingest debris than herbivores or gelatinovores. Our results indicate oceanic leatherback turtles and green turtles are at the greatest risk of both lethal and sublethal effects from ingested marine debris. To reduce this risk, anthropogenic debris must be managed at a global level. Análisis Global de la Ingesta de Residuos Antropogénicos por Tortugas Marinas La ingesta de residuos marinos puede tener efectos letales y subletales sobre las tortugas marinas y otros animales. Aunque hay investigadores que han reportado la ingesta de residuos antropogénicos por tortugas marinas y la incidencia de la ingesta de residuos ha incrementado con el tiempo, no ha habido una síntesis global del fenómeno desde 1985. Por esto analizamos 37 estudios publicados, desde

GOSAT Observations of Anthropogenic Emission of Carbon Dioxide and Methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janardanan Achari, R.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Oda, T.; Saito, M.; W Kaiser, J.; Ganshin, A.; Matsunaga, T.; Yoshida, Y.; Yokota, T.

2016-12-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the most important greenhouse gases in terms of radiative forcing. Anthropogenic activities such as combustion of fossil fuel (for CO2) and gas leakage, animal agriculture, rice cultivation and landfill emissions (CH4), are considered to be major sources of those emissions. Still, emission data usually depend on national emission reports, which are seldom evaluated independently. Here we present a method for delineating anthropogenic contribution to global atmospheric CO2 (2009-2014) and CH4 (2009-2012) fields using GOSAT observations of column-average dry air mole fractions (XCO2 and XCH4) and atmospheric transport model simulations using high-resolution emission inventories. The CO2 and CH4 concentration enhancement due to anthropogenic activities, are estimated with the transport model at all GOSAT observation locations using high-resolution emission inventories (ODIAC for CO2 and EDGAR for CH4). Based on this estimate, using a threshold value, the observations are classified into two categories: data influenced by the anthropogenic sources and those not including them. To extract concentration enhancements due to the anthropogenic emissions, we define a clean background (the averaged values for the data free from contamination) in 10°×10° regions over the globe and are subtracted from the individual observational data including the anthropogenic contamination. Thus the anomalies contain contributions from anthropogenic sources. These anomalies are binned and analyzed for continental scale regions and countries. For CO2, we have found global and regional linear relationships between model and observed anomalies especially for Eurasia and North America. The analysis for East Asian region showed a systematic bias that is comparable in magnitude to the reported uncertainties in emission inventories in that region. In the case of CH4, we also found a good match between inventory-based estimates and GOSAT observations for

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charlson, R. J.; Schwartz, S. E.; Hales, J. M.; Cess, R. D.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.; Hansen, J. E.; Hofmann, D. J.

1992-01-01

Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, in particular, has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short-wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.

PubMed

Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J

1992-01-24

Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

Anthropogenic combustion iron as a complex climate forcer

DOE PAGES

Matsui, Hitoshi; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Moteki, Nobuhiro; ...

2018-04-23

Atmospheric iron affects the global carbon cycle by modulating ocean biogeochemistry through the deposition of soluble iron to the ocean. Iron emitted by anthropogenic (fossil fuel) combustion is a source of soluble iron that is currently considered less important than other soluble iron sources, such as mineral dust and biomass burning. Here we show that the atmospheric burden of anthropogenic combustion iron is 8 times greater than previous estimates by incorporating recent measurements of anthropogenic magnetite into a global aerosol model. This new estimation increases the total deposition flux of soluble iron to southern oceans (30–90 °S) by 52%, withmore » a larger contribution of anthropogenic combustion iron than dust and biomass burning sources. The direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic magnetite is estimated to be 0.021 W m –2 globally and 0.22 W m –2 over East Asia. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that anthropogenic combustion iron is a larger and more complex climate forcer than previously thought, and therefore plays a key role in the Earth system.« less

Anthropogenic combustion iron as a complex climate forcer.

PubMed

Matsui, Hitoshi; Mahowald, Natalie M; Moteki, Nobuhiro; Hamilton, Douglas S; Ohata, Sho; Yoshida, Atsushi; Koike, Makoto; Scanza, Rachel A; Flanner, Mark G

2018-04-23

Atmospheric iron affects the global carbon cycle by modulating ocean biogeochemistry through the deposition of soluble iron to the ocean. Iron emitted by anthropogenic (fossil fuel) combustion is a source of soluble iron that is currently considered less important than other soluble iron sources, such as mineral dust and biomass burning. Here we show that the atmospheric burden of anthropogenic combustion iron is 8 times greater than previous estimates by incorporating recent measurements of anthropogenic magnetite into a global aerosol model. This new estimation increases the total deposition flux of soluble iron to southern oceans (30-90 °S) by 52%, with a larger contribution of anthropogenic combustion iron than dust and biomass burning sources. The direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic magnetite is estimated to be 0.021 W m -2 globally and 0.22 W m -2 over East Asia. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic combustion iron is a larger and more complex climate forcer than previously thought, and therefore plays a key role in the Earth system.

Anthropogenic combustion iron as a complex climate forcer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matsui, Hitoshi; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Moteki, Nobuhiro

Atmospheric iron affects the global carbon cycle by modulating ocean biogeochemistry through the deposition of soluble iron to the ocean. Iron emitted by anthropogenic (fossil fuel) combustion is a source of soluble iron that is currently considered less important than other soluble iron sources, such as mineral dust and biomass burning. Here we show that the atmospheric burden of anthropogenic combustion iron is 8 times greater than previous estimates by incorporating recent measurements of anthropogenic magnetite into a global aerosol model. This new estimation increases the total deposition flux of soluble iron to southern oceans (30–90 °S) by 52%, withmore » a larger contribution of anthropogenic combustion iron than dust and biomass burning sources. The direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic magnetite is estimated to be 0.021 W m –2 globally and 0.22 W m –2 over East Asia. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that anthropogenic combustion iron is a larger and more complex climate forcer than previously thought, and therefore plays a key role in the Earth system.« less

Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Doug M.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Eade, Rosie; Hermanson, Leon; Jones, Gareth S.; Scaife, Adam A.; Sheen, Katy L.; Thompson, Vikki

2016-10-01

The rate of global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming has slowed this century despite the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Climate model experiments show that this slowdown was largely driven by a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with a smaller external contribution from solar variability, and volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols. The prevailing view is that this negative PDO occurred through internal variability. However, here we show that coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project robustly simulate a negative PDO in response to anthropogenic aerosols implying a potentially important role for external human influences. The recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 also contributed to the slowdown in GMST trends. Our results suggest that a slowdown in GMST trends could have been predicted in advance, and that future reduction of anthropogenic aerosol emissions, particularly from China, would promote a positive PDO and increased GMST trends over the coming years. Furthermore, the overestimation of the magnitude of recent warming by models is substantially reduced by using detection and attribution analysis to rescale their response to external factors, especially cooling following volcanic eruptions. Improved understanding of external influences on climate is therefore crucial to constrain near-term climate predictions.

Defining the `negative emission' capacity of global agriculture deployed for enhanced rock weathering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beerling, D. J.; Taylor, L.; Banwart, S. A.; Kantzas, E. P.; Lomas, M.; Mueller, C.; Ridgwell, A.; Quegan, S.

2016-12-01

Enhanced rock weathering involves application of crushed silicates (e.g. basalt) to the landscape to accelerate their chemical breakdown to release base cations and form bicarbonate that ultimate sequester CO2 in the oceans. Global croplands cover an area of 12 million km2 and might be deployed for long-term removal of anthropogenic CO2 through enhanced rock weathering with a number of co-benefits for food security. This presentation assesses the potential of this strategy to contribute to `negative emissions' as defined by a suite of simulations coupling a detailed model of rock grain weathering by crop root-microbial processes with a managed land dynamic global vegetation model driven by the `business as usual' future climate change scenarios. We calculate potential atmospheric CO2 drawdown over the next century by introducing a strengthened C-sink term into the global carbon cycle model within an intermediate complexity Earth system model. Our simulations indicate agricultural lands deployed in this way constitute a `low tech' biological negative emissions strategy. As part of a wider portfolio of options, this strategy might contribute to limiting future warming to 2oC, subject to economic costs and energy requirements.

Annual Estimates of Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions: 1860-1994

DOE Data Explorer

Stern, David I. [Boston Univ., MA (United States); Kaufmann, Robert K. [Boston Univ., MA (United States)

1998-01-01

The authors provide the first estimates, by year, of global man-made emissions of methane, from 1860 through 1994. The methods, including the rationale for the various coefficients and assumptions used in deriving the estimates, are described fully in Stern and Kaufmann (1995, 1996), which provides the estimates for the period 1860-1993; the data presented here are revised and updated through 1994. Some formulae and coefficients were also revised in that process. Estimates are provided for total anthropogenic emissions, as well as emissions for the following component categories: Flaring and Venting of Natural Gas; Oil and Gas Supply Systems, Excluding Flaring; Coal Mining; Biomass Burning; Livestock Farming; Rice Farming and Related Activities; Landfills. Changes in emissions over time were estimated by treating emissions as a function of variables (such as population or coal production) for which historical time series are available.

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from a megacity in the Yangtze River Delta of China.

PubMed

Hu, Cheng; Liu, Shoudong; Wang, Yongwei; Zhang, Mi; Xiao, Wei; Wang, Wei; Xu, Jiaping

2018-06-03

Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from cities represent a major source contributing to the global atmospheric CO 2 burden. Here, we examined the enhancement of atmospheric CO 2 mixing ratios by anthropogenic emissions within the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China, one of the world's most densely populated regions (population greater than 150 million). Tower measurements of CO 2 mixing ratios were conducted from March 2013 to August 2015 and were combined with numerical source footprint modeling to help constrain the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. We simulated the CO 2 enhancements (i.e., fluctuations superimposed on background values) for winter season (December, January, and February). Overall, we observed mean diurnal variation of CO 2 enhancement of 23.5~49.7 μmol mol -1 , 21.4~52.4 μmol mol -1 , 28.1~55.4 μmol mol -1 , and 29.5~42.4 μmol mol -1 in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. These enhancements were much larger than previously reported values for other countries. The diurnal CO 2 enhancements reported here showed strong similarity for all 3 years of the study. Results from source footprint modeling indicated that our tower observations adequately represent emissions from the broader YRD area. Here, the east of Anhui and the west of Jiangsu province contributed significantly more to the anthropogenic CO 2 enhancement compared to the other sectors of YRD. The average anthropogenic CO 2 emission in 2014 was 0.162 (± 0.005) mg m -2  s -1 and was 7 ± 3% higher than 2010 for the YRD. Overall, our emission estimates were significantly smaller (9.5%) than those estimated (0.179 mg m -2  s -1 ) from the EDGAR emission database.

The anthropogenic influence on Iron deposition over the oceans: a 3-D global modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Baker, Alex; Kanakidou, Maria

2014-05-01

Iron (Fe) deposition over oceans is directly linked to the marine biological productivity and consequently to atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Experimental and modeling results support that both inorganic (sulphate, ammonium and nitrate) and organic (e.g. oxalate) ligands can increase the Fe mobilization. Mineral dust deposition is considered as the most important supply of bioavailable Fe in the oceans. Although, due to the low soil soluble iron fractions, atmospheric processes which are also related to anthropogenic emissions, can convert iron to more soluble forms in the atmosphere. Recent studies also support that anthropogenic emissions of Fe from combustion sources also significantly contribute to the dissolved Fe atmospheric pool. The evaluation of the impact of humans on atmospheric soluble or bioavailable Fe deposition remains challenging, since Fe mobilization due to changes in anthropogenic emissions is largely uncertain. In the present study, the global atmospheric Fe cycle is parameterized in the 3-D chemical transport global model TM4-ECPL and the model is used to calculate the Fe deposition over the oceans. The model considers explicitly organic, sulfur and nitrogen gas-phase chemistry, aqueous-phase organic chemistry, including oxalate and all major aerosol constituents. TM4-ECPL simulates the organic and inorganic ligand-promoted mineral Fe dissolution and also aqueous-phase photochemical reactions between different forms of Fe (III/II). Primary emissions of Fe associated with dust and soluble Fe from combustion processes as well as atmospheric processing of the emitted Fe is taken into account in the model Sensitivity simulations are performed to study the impact of anthropogenic emissions on Fe deposition. For this preindustrial, present and future emission scenarios are used in the model in order to examine the response of chemical composition of iron-containing aerosols to environmental changes. The release of soluble iron associated with

Technical opportunities to reduce global anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winiwarter, Wilfried; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Klimont, Zbigniew; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Amann, Markus

2018-01-01

We describe a consistent framework developed to quantify current and future anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide and the available technical abatement options by source sector for 172 regions globally. About 65% of the current emissions derive from agricultural soils, 8% from waste, and 4% from the chemical industry. Low-cost abatement options are available in industry, wastewater, and agriculture, where they are limited to large industrial farms. We estimate that by 2030, emissions can be reduced by about 6% ±2% applying abatement options at a cost lower than 10 €/t CO2-eq. The largest abatement potential at higher marginal costs is available from agricultural soils, employing precision fertilizer application technology as well as chemical treatment of fertilizers to suppress conversion processes in soil (nitrification inhibitors). At marginal costs of up to 100 €/t CO2-eq, about 18% ±6% of baseline emissions can be removed and when considering all available options, the global abatement potential increases to about 26% ±9%. Due to expected future increase in activities driving nitrous oxide emissions, the limited technical abatement potential available means that even at full implementation of reduction measures by 2030, global emissions can be at most stabilized at the pre-2010 level. In order to achieve deeper reductions in emissions, considerable technological development will be required as well as non-technical options like adjusting human diets towards moderate animal protein consumption.

On the fate of anthropogenic nitrogen

PubMed Central

Schlesinger, William H.

2009-01-01

This article provides a synthesis of literature values to trace the fate of 150 Tg/yr anthropogenic nitrogen applied by humans to the Earth's land surface. Approximately 9 TgN/yr may be accumulating in the terrestrial biosphere in pools with residence times of ten to several hundred years. Enhanced fluvial transport of nitrogen in rivers and percolation to groundwater accounts for ≈35 and 15 TgN/yr, respectively. Greater denitrification in terrestrial soils and wetlands may account for the loss of ≈17 TgN/yr from the land surface, calculated by a compilation of data on the fraction of N2O emitted to the atmosphere and the current global rise of this gas in the atmosphere. A recent estimate of atmospheric transport of reactive nitrogen from land to sea (NOx and NHx) accounts for 48 TgN/yr. The total of these enhanced sinks, 124 TgN/yr, is less than the human-enhanced inputs to the land surface, indicating areas of needed additional attention to global nitrogen biogeochemistry. Policy makers should focus on increasing nitrogen-use efficiency in fertilization, reducing transport of reactive N to rivers and groundwater, and maximizing denitrification to its N2 endproduct. PMID:19118195

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition enhances carbon sequestration in boreal soils.

PubMed

Maaroufi, Nadia I; Nordin, Annika; Hasselquist, Niles J; Bach, Lisbet H; Palmqvist, Kristin; Gundale, Michael J

2015-08-01

It is proposed that carbon (C) sequestration in response to reactive nitrogen (Nr ) deposition in boreal forests accounts for a large portion of the terrestrial sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. While studies have helped clarify the magnitude by which Nr deposition enhances C sequestration by forest vegetation, there remains a paucity of long-term experimental studies evaluating how soil C pools respond. We conducted a long-term experiment, maintained since 1996, consisting of three N addition levels (0, 12.5, and 50 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) ) in the boreal zone of northern Sweden to understand how atmospheric Nr deposition affects soil C accumulation, soil microbial communities, and soil respiration. We hypothesized that soil C sequestration will increase, and soil microbial biomass and soil respiration will decrease, with disproportionately large changes expected compared to low levels of N addition. Our data showed that the low N addition treatment caused a non-significant increase in the organic horizon C pool of ~15% and a significant increase of ~30% in response to the high N treatment relative to the control. The relationship between C sequestration and N addition in the organic horizon was linear, with a slope of 10 kg C kg(-1) N. We also found a concomitant decrease in total microbial and fungal biomasses and a ~11% reduction in soil respiration in response to the high N treatment. Our data complement previous data from the same study system describing aboveground C sequestration, indicating a total ecosystem sequestration rate of 26 kg C kg(-1) N. These estimates are far lower than suggested by some previous modeling studies, and thus will help improve and validate current modeling efforts aimed at separating the effect of multiple global change factors on the C balance of the boreal region. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Responses of Surface Ozone Air Quality to Anthropogenic Nitrogen Deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.; Zhao, Y.; Tai, A. P. K.; Chen, Y.; Pan, Y.

2017-12-01

Human activities have substantially increased atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen to the Earth's surface, inducing unintentional effects on ecosystems with complex environmental and climate consequences. One consequence remaining unexplored is how surface air quality might respond to the enhanced nitrogen deposition through surface-atmosphere exchange. We combine a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and a global land model (Community Land Model) to address this issue with a focus on ozone pollution in the Northern Hemisphere. We consider three processes that are important for surface ozone and can be perturbed by addition of atmospheric deposited nitrogen: emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ozone dry deposition, and soil nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. We find that present-day anthropogenic nitrogen deposition (65 Tg N a-1 to the land), through enhancing plant growth (represented as increases in vegetation leaf area index (LAI) in the model), could increase surface ozone from increased biogenic VOC emissions, but could also decrease ozone due to higher ozone dry deposition velocities. Meanwhile, deposited anthropogenic nitrogen to soil enhances soil NOx emissions. The overall effect on summer mean surface ozone concentrations show general increases over the globe (up to 1.5-2.3 ppbv over the western US and South Asia), except for some regions with high anthropogenic NOx emissions (0.5-1.0 ppbv decreases over the eastern US, Western Europe, and North China). We compare the surface ozone changes with those driven by the past 20-year climate and historical land use changes. We find that the impacts from anthropogenic nitrogen deposition can be comparable to the climate and land use driven surface ozone changes at regional scales, and partly offset the surface ozone reductions due to land use changes reported in previous studies. Our study emphasizes the complexity of biosphere-atmosphere interactions, which can have important

Atmospheric carbonyl sulfide sources from anthropogenic activity: Implications for carbon cycle constraints

DOE PAGES

Campbell, J. E.; Whelan, Mary; Seibt, U.; ...

2015-04-16

Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has recently emerged as an atmospheric tracer of gross primary production. All modeling studies of COS air-monitoring data rely on a climatological anthropogenic inventory that does not reflect present conditions or support interpretation of ice core and firn trends. Here we develop a global anthropogenic inventory for the years 1850 to 2013 based on new emission measurements and material-specific data. By applying methods from a recent regional inventory to global data, we find that the anthropogenic source is similar in magnitude to the plant sink, confounding carbon cycle applications. However, a material-specific approach results in a currentmore » anthropogenic source that is only one third of plant uptake and is concentrated in Asia, supporting carbon cycle applications of global air-monitoring data. As a result, changes in the anthropogenic source alone cannot explain the century-scale mixing ratio growth, which suggests that ice and firn data may provide the first global history of gross primary production.« less

A global analysis of the impacts of urbanization on bird and plant diversity reveals key anthropogenic drivers.

PubMed

Aronson, Myla F J; La Sorte, Frank A; Nilon, Charles H; Katti, Madhusudan; Goddard, Mark A; Lepczyk, Christopher A; Warren, Paige S; Williams, Nicholas S G; Cilliers, Sarel; Clarkson, Bruce; Dobbs, Cynnamon; Dolan, Rebecca; Hedblom, Marcus; Klotz, Stefan; Kooijmans, Jip Louwe; Kühn, Ingolf; Macgregor-Fors, Ian; McDonnell, Mark; Mörtberg, Ulla; Pysek, Petr; Siebert, Stefan; Sushinsky, Jessica; Werner, Peter; Winter, Marten

2014-04-07

Urbanization contributes to the loss of the world's biodiversity and the homogenization of its biota. However, comparative studies of urban biodiversity leading to robust generalities of the status and drivers of biodiversity in cities at the global scale are lacking. Here, we compiled the largest global dataset to date of two diverse taxa in cities: birds (54 cities) and plants (110 cities). We found that the majority of urban bird and plant species are native in the world's cities. Few plants and birds are cosmopolitan, the most common being Columba livia and Poa annua. The density of bird and plant species (the number of species per km(2)) has declined substantially: only 8% of native bird and 25% of native plant species are currently present compared with estimates of non-urban density of species. The current density of species in cities and the loss in density of species was best explained by anthropogenic features (landcover, city age) rather than by non-anthropogenic factors (geography, climate, topography). As urbanization continues to expand, efforts directed towards the conservation of intact vegetation within urban landscapes could support higher concentrations of both bird and plant species. Despite declines in the density of species, cities still retain endemic native species, thus providing opportunities for regional and global biodiversity conservation, restoration and education.

A global analysis of the impacts of urbanization on bird and plant diversity reveals key anthropogenic drivers

PubMed Central

Aronson, Myla F. J.; La Sorte, Frank A.; Nilon, Charles H.; Katti, Madhusudan; Goddard, Mark A.; Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Warren, Paige S.; Williams, Nicholas S. G.; Cilliers, Sarel; Clarkson, Bruce; Dobbs, Cynnamon; Dolan, Rebecca; Hedblom, Marcus; Klotz, Stefan; Kooijmans, Jip Louwe; Kühn, Ingolf; MacGregor-Fors, Ian; McDonnell, Mark; Mörtberg, Ulla; Pyšek, Petr; Siebert, Stefan; Sushinsky, Jessica; Werner, Peter; Winter, Marten

2014-01-01

Urbanization contributes to the loss of the world's biodiversity and the homogenization of its biota. However, comparative studies of urban biodiversity leading to robust generalities of the status and drivers of biodiversity in cities at the global scale are lacking. Here, we compiled the largest global dataset to date of two diverse taxa in cities: birds (54 cities) and plants (110 cities). We found that the majority of urban bird and plant species are native in the world's cities. Few plants and birds are cosmopolitan, the most common being Columba livia and Poa annua. The density of bird and plant species (the number of species per km2) has declined substantially: only 8% of native bird and 25% of native plant species are currently present compared with estimates of non-urban density of species. The current density of species in cities and the loss in density of species was best explained by anthropogenic features (landcover, city age) rather than by non-anthropogenic factors (geography, climate, topography). As urbanization continues to expand, efforts directed towards the conservation of intact vegetation within urban landscapes could support higher concentrations of both bird and plant species. Despite declines in the density of species, cities still retain endemic native species, thus providing opportunities for regional and global biodiversity conservation, restoration and education. PMID:24523278

Anthropogenic and climatic factors enhancing hypolimnetic anoxia in a temperate mountain lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-España, Javier; Mata, M. Pilar; Vegas, Juana; Morellón, Mario; Rodríguez, Juan Antonio; Salazar, Ángel; Yusta, Iñaki; Chaos, Aida; Pérez-Martínez, Carmen; Navas, Ana

2017-12-01

Oxygen depletion (temporal or permanent) in freshwater ecosystems is a widespread and globally important environmental problem. However, the factors behind increased hypolimnetic anoxia in lakes and reservoirs are often diverse and may involve processes at different spatial and temporal scales. Here, we evaluate the combined effects of different anthropogenic pressures on the oxygen dynamics and water chemistry of Lake Enol, an emblematic mountain lake in Picos de Europa National Park (NW Spain). A multidisciplinary study conducted over a period of four years (2013-2016) indicates that the extent and duration of hypolimnetic anoxia has increased dramatically in recent years. The extent and duration of hypolimnetic anoxia is typical of meso-eutrophic systems, in contrast with the internal productivity of the lake, which remains oligo-mesotrophic and phosphorus-limited. This apparent contradiction is ascribed to the combination of different external pressures in the catchment, which have increased the input of allochthonous organic matter in recent times through enhanced erosion and sediment transport. The most important among these pressures appears to be cattle grazing, which affects not only the import of carbon and nutrients, but also the lake microbiology. The contribution of clear-cutting, runoff channelling, and tourism is comparatively less significant. The cumulative effects of these local human impacts are not only affecting the lake metabolism, but also the import of sulfate, nitrate- and ammonium-nitrogen, and metals (Zn). However, these local factors alone cannot explain entirely the observed oxygen deficit. Climatic factors (e.g., warmer and drier spring and autumn seasons) are also reducing oxygen levels in deep waters through a longer and increasingly steep thermal stratification. Global warming may indirectly increase anoxia in many other mountain lakes in the near future.

University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2017-01-01

This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching. This review identifies both the strengths and weaknesses of each of these case studies. It is the first to go beyond examining the impact of specific inquiry instructional approaches to offer a synthesis of cases. We find that inquiry teaching can succeed by concretising scientific processes, providing access to global data and evidence, imparting critical and higher order thinking about AGCC science policy and contextualising learning with places and scientific facts. We recommend educational researchers and scientists collaborate to create and refine curricula that utilise geospatial technologies, climate models and communication technologies to bring students into contact with scientists, climate data and authentic AGCC research processes. Many available science education technologies and curricula also require further research to maximise trade-offs between implementation and training costs and their educational value.

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

2011-07-19

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

PubMed

Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

2009-02-01

We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

Future trends of global atmospheric antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Junrui; Tian, Hezhong; Zhu, Chuanyong; Hao, Jiming; Gao, Jiajia; Wang, Yong; Xue, Yifeng; Hua, Shenbin; Wang, Kun

2015-11-01

This paper presents the scenario forecast of global atmospheric antimony (Sb) emissions from anthropogenic activities till 2050. The projection scenarios are built based on the comprehensive global antimony emission inventory for the period 1995-2010 which is reported in our previous study. Three scenarios are set up to investigate the future changes of global antimony emissions as well as their source and region contribution characteristics. Trends of activity levels specified as 5 primary source categories are projected by combining the historical trend extrapolation with EIA International energy outlook 2013, while the source-specific dynamic emission factors are determined by applying transformed normal distribution functions. If no major changes in the efficiency of emission control are introduced and keep current air quality legislations (Current Legislation scenario), global antimony emissions will increase by a factor of 2 between 2010 and 2050. The largest increase in Sb emissions is projected from Asia due to large volume of nonferrous metals production and waste incineration. In case of enforcing the pollutant emission standards (Strengthened Control scenario), global antimony emissions in 2050 will stabilize with that of 2010. Moreover, we can anticipate further declines in Sb emissions for all continents with the best emission control performances (Maximum Feasible Technological Reduction scenario). Future antimony emissions from the top 10 largest emitting countries have also been calculated and source category contributions of increasing emissions of these countries present significant diversity. Furthermore, global emission projections in 2050 are distributed within a 1° × 1°latitude/longitude grid. East Asia, Western Europe and North America present remarkable differences in emission intensity under the three scenarios, which implies that source-and-country specific control measures are necessary to be implemented for abating Sb emissions from

Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions

PubMed Central

Boivin, Nicole L.; Zeder, Melinda A.; Fuller, Dorian Q.; Crowther, Alison; Larson, Greger; Erlandson, Jon M.; Denham, Tim; Petraglia, Michael D.

2016-01-01

The exhibition of increasingly intensive and complex niche construction behaviors through time is a key feature of human evolution, culminating in the advanced capacity for ecosystem engineering exhibited by Homo sapiens. A crucial outcome of such behaviors has been the dramatic reshaping of the global biosphere, a transformation whose early origins are increasingly apparent from cumulative archaeological and paleoecological datasets. Such data suggest that, by the Late Pleistocene, humans had begun to engage in activities that have led to alterations in the distributions of a vast array of species across most, if not all, taxonomic groups. Changes to biodiversity have included extinctions, extirpations, and shifts in species composition, diversity, and community structure. We outline key examples of these changes, highlighting findings from the study of new datasets, like ancient DNA (aDNA), stable isotopes, and microfossils, as well as the application of new statistical and computational methods to datasets that have accumulated significantly in recent decades. We focus on four major phases that witnessed broad anthropogenic alterations to biodiversity—the Late Pleistocene global human expansion, the Neolithic spread of agriculture, the era of island colonization, and the emergence of early urbanized societies and commercial networks. Archaeological evidence documents millennia of anthropogenic transformations that have created novel ecosystems around the world. This record has implications for ecological and evolutionary research, conservation strategies, and the maintenance of ecosystem services, pointing to a significant need for broader cross-disciplinary engagement between archaeology and the biological and environmental sciences. PMID:27274046

Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions.

PubMed

Boivin, Nicole L; Zeder, Melinda A; Fuller, Dorian Q; Crowther, Alison; Larson, Greger; Erlandson, Jon M; Denham, Tim; Petraglia, Michael D

2016-06-07

The exhibition of increasingly intensive and complex niche construction behaviors through time is a key feature of human evolution, culminating in the advanced capacity for ecosystem engineering exhibited by Homo sapiens A crucial outcome of such behaviors has been the dramatic reshaping of the global biosphere, a transformation whose early origins are increasingly apparent from cumulative archaeological and paleoecological datasets. Such data suggest that, by the Late Pleistocene, humans had begun to engage in activities that have led to alterations in the distributions of a vast array of species across most, if not all, taxonomic groups. Changes to biodiversity have included extinctions, extirpations, and shifts in species composition, diversity, and community structure. We outline key examples of these changes, highlighting findings from the study of new datasets, like ancient DNA (aDNA), stable isotopes, and microfossils, as well as the application of new statistical and computational methods to datasets that have accumulated significantly in recent decades. We focus on four major phases that witnessed broad anthropogenic alterations to biodiversity-the Late Pleistocene global human expansion, the Neolithic spread of agriculture, the era of island colonization, and the emergence of early urbanized societies and commercial networks. Archaeological evidence documents millennia of anthropogenic transformations that have created novel ecosystems around the world. This record has implications for ecological and evolutionary research, conservation strategies, and the maintenance of ecosystem services, pointing to a significant need for broader cross-disciplinary engagement between archaeology and the biological and environmental sciences.

Artificial breakwaters as garbage bins: Structural complexity enhances anthropogenic litter accumulation in marine intertidal habitats.

PubMed

Aguilera, Moisés A; Broitman, Bernardo R; Thiel, Martin

2016-07-01

Coastal urban infrastructures are proliferating across the world, but knowledge about their emergent impacts is still limited. Here, we provide evidence that urban artificial reefs have a high potential to accumulate the diverse forms of litter originating from anthropogenic activities around cities. We test the hypothesis that the structural complexity of urban breakwaters, when compared with adjacent natural rocky intertidal habitats, is a driver of anthropogenic litter accumulation. We determined litter abundances at seven sites (cities) and estimated the structural complexity in both urban breakwaters and adjacent natural habitats from northern to central Chile, spanning a latitudinal gradient of ∼15° (18°S to 33°S). Anthropogenic litter density was significantly higher in coastal breakwaters when compared to natural habitats (∼15.1 items m(-2) on artificial reefs versus 7.4 items m(-2) in natural habitats) at all study sites, a pattern that was temporally persistent. Different litter categories were more abundant on the artificial reefs than in natural habitats, with local human population density and breakwater extension contributing to increase the probabilities of litter occurrence by ∼10%. In addition, structural complexity was about two-fold higher on artificial reefs, with anthropogenic litter density being highest at intermediate levels of structural complexity. Therefore, the spatial structure characteristic of artificial reefs seems to enhance anthropogenic litter accumulation, also leading to higher residence time and degradation potential. Our study highlights the interaction between coastal urban habitat modification by establishment of artificial reefs, and pollution. This emergent phenomenon is an important issue to be considered in future management plans and the engineering of coastal ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What is the impact of natural variability and aerosol-cloud interaction on the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiedler, S.; Stevens, B.; Mauritsen, T.

2017-12-01

State-of-the-art climate models have persistently shown a spread in estimates of the effective radiative forcing (ERF) associated with anthropogenic aerosol. Different reasons for the spread are known, but their relative importance is poorly understood. In this presentation we investigate the role of natural atmospheric variability, global patterns of aerosol radiative effects, and magnitudes of aerosol-cloud interaction in controlling the ERF of anthropogenic aerosol (Fiedler et al., 2017). We use the Earth system model MPI-ESM1.2 for conducting ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations and calculate the shortwave ERF of anthropogenic aerosol at the top of the atmosphere. The radiative effects are induced with the new parameterisation MACv2-SP (Stevens et al., 2017) that prescribes observationally constrained anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect. Firstly, we compare the ERF of global patterns of anthropogenic aerosol from the mid-1970s and today. Our results suggest that such a substantial pattern difference has a negligible impact on the global mean ERF, when the natural variability of the atmosphere is considered. The clouds herein efficiently mask the clear-sky contributions to the forcing and reduce the detectability of significant anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects in all-sky conditions. Secondly, we strengthen the forcing magnitude through increasing the effect of aerosol-cloud interaction by prescribing an enhanced Twomey effect. In that case, the different spatial pattern of aerosol radiative effects from the mid-1970s and today causes a moderate change (15%) in the ERF of anthropogenic aerosol in our model. This finding lets us speculate that models with strong aerosol-cloud interactions would show a stronger ERF change with anthropogenic aerosol patterns. Testing whether the anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing is model-dependent under prescribed aerosol conditions is currently ongoing work using MACv2-SP in

Anthropogenic sediment retention: major global impact from registered river impoundments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Meybeck, Michel; Fekete, Balázs; Sharma, Keshav; Green, Pamela; Syvitski, James P. M.

2003-10-01

In this paper, we develop and apply a framework for estimating the potential global-scale impact of reservoir construction on riverine sediment transport to the ocean. Using this framework, we discern a large, global-scale, and growing impact from anthropogenic impoundment. Our study links information on 633 of the world's largest reservoirs (LRs) (≥0.5 km 3 maximum storage capacity) to the geography of continental discharge and uses statistical inferences to assess the potential impact of the remaining >44,000 smaller reservoirs (SRs). Information on the LRs was linked to a digitized river network at 30' (latitude×longitude) spatial resolution. A residence time change (Δ τR) for otherwise free-flowing river water is determined locally for each reservoir and used with a sediment retention function to predict the proportion of incident sediment flux trapped within each impoundment. The discharge-weighted mean Δ τR for individual impoundments distributed across the globe is 0.21 years for LRs and 0.011 years for SRs. More than 40% of global river discharge is intercepted locally by the LRs analyzed here, and a significant proportion (≈70%) of this discharge maintains a theoretical sediment trapping efficiency in excess of 50%. Half of all discharge entering LRs shows a local sediment trapping efficiency of 80% or more. Analysis of the recent history of river impoundment reveals that between 1950 and 1968, there was tripling from 5% to 15% in global LR sediment trapping, another doubling to 30% by 1985, and stabilization thereafter. Several large basins such as the Colorado and Nile show nearly complete trapping due to large reservoir construction and flow diversion. From the standpoint of sediment retention rates, the most heavily regulated drainage basins reside in Europe. North America, Africa, and Australia/Oceania are also strongly affected by LRs. Globally, greater than 50% of basin-scale sediment flux in regulated basins is potentially trapped in

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L.; Stock, James H.

2011-01-01

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects. PMID:21730180

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

2008-01-01

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

Identifying species at extinction risk using global models of anthropogenic impact.

PubMed

Peters, Howard; O'Leary, Bethan C; Hawkins, Julie P; Roberts, Callum M

2015-02-01

The International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Endangered Species employs a robust, standardized approach to assess extinction threat focussed on taxa approaching an end-point in population decline. Used alone, we argue this enforces a reactive approach to conservation. Species not assessed as threatened but which occur predominantly in areas with high levels of anthropogenic impact may require proactive conservation management to prevent loss. We matched distribution and bathymetric range data from the global Red List assessment of 632 species of marine cone snails with human impacts and projected ocean thermal stress and aragonite saturation (a proxy for ocean acidification). Our results show 67 species categorized as 'Least Concern' have 70% or more of their occupancy in places subject to high and very high levels of human impact with 18 highly restricted species (range <100 km(2)) living exclusively in such places. Using a range-rarity scoring method we identified where clusters of endemic species are subject to all three stressors: high human impact, declining aragonite saturation levels and elevated thermal stress. Our approach reinforces Red List threatened status, highlights candidate species for reassessment, contributes important evidential data to minimize data deficiency and identifies regions and species for proactive conservation. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of future anthropogenic pollution emissions on global air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, A.; Zimmermann, P.; Doering, U.; van Aardenne, J.; Dentener, F.; Lelieveld, J.

2012-04-01

The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC is used to estimate the impact of anthropogenic emission changes on global and regional air quality in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050). The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). By comparing with recent observations, it is shown that the model reproduces the main features of regional air pollution distributions though with some imprecision inherent to the coarse horizontal resolution (around 100 km). To identify possible future hot spots of poor air quality, a multi pollutant index (MPI) has been applied. It appears that East and South Asia and the Arabian Gulf regions represent such hotspots due to very high pollutant concentrations. In East Asia a range of pollutant gases and particulate matter (PM2.5) are projected to reach very high levels from 2005 onward, while in South Asia air pollution, including ozone, will grow rapidly towards the middle of the century. Around the Arabian Gulf, where natural PM2.5 concentrations are already high (desert dust), ozone levels will increase strongly. By extending the MPI definition, we calculated a Per Capita MPI (PCMPI) in which we combined population projections with those of pollution emissions. It thus appears that a rapidly increasing number of people worldwide will experience reduced air quality during the first half of the 21st century. It is projected that air quality for the global average citizen in 2050 will be comparable to the average in East Asia in the year 2005.

Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C.-F.

2018-01-01

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources - Part 2: Anthropogenic activities modules and assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Shirakawa, N.

2007-10-01

To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water resources and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and two natural hydrological cycle modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module and the river routing module. Here, we present the remaining four modules, which represent anthropogenic activities: a crop growth module, a reservoir operation module, an environmental flow requirement module, and an anthropogenic withdrawal module. In addition, we discuss the results of a global water resources assessment using the integrated model. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on heat unit theory and potential biomass and harvest index concepts. The performance of the crop growth module was examined extensively because agricultural water comprises approximately 70% of total water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to underestimate countries in the Asian monsoon region. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with more than 1 km³ each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir using an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. The integrated model closes both energy and water balances on land surfaces. Global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index that locates water-stressed regions that were

Radiative effects due to North American anthropogenic and lightning emissions: Global and regional modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martini, Matus Novak

We analyze the contribution of North American (NA) lightning and anthropogenic emissions to summertime ozone concentrations, radiative forcing, and exports from North America using the global University of Maryland chemistry transport model (UMD-CTM) and the regional scale Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Lightning NO contributes by 15--20 ppbv to upper tropospheric ozone concentrations over the United States with the effects of NA lightning on ozone seen as far east as North Africa and Europe. Using the UMD-CTM, we compare changes in surface and column ozone amounts due to the NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call with the natural variability in ozone due to changes in meteorology and lightning. Comparing early summer 2004 with 2002, surface ozone decreased by up to 5 ppbv due to the NO x SIP Call while changes in meteorology and lightning resulted in a 0.3--1.4 ppbv increase in surface ozone. Ozone column variability was driven primarily by changes in lightning NO emissions, especially over the North Atlantic. As part of our WRF-Chem analysis, we modify the radiation schemes to use model-calculated ozone (interactive ozone) instead of climatological ozone profiles and conduct multiple 4-day simulations of July 2007. We found that interactive ozone increased the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) by 3 W m-2 decreasing the bias with respect to remotely sensed OLR. The improvement is due to a high bias in the climatological ozone profiles. The interactive ozone had a small impact on mean upper troposphere temperature (-0.15°C). The UMD-CTM simulations indicate that NA anthropogenic emissions are responsible for more ozone export but less ozone radiative forcing than lightning NO emissions. Over the North Atlantic, NA anthropogenic emissions contributed 0.15--0.30 W m-2 to the net downward radiative flux at the tropopause while NA lightning contributed 0.30--0.50 W m-2. The ozone export from anthropogenic emissions was almost twice

1-km Global Anthropogenic Heat Flux Database for Urban Climate Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Y.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

2016-12-01

Among various factors contributing to warming in cities, anthropogenic heat emission (AHE), defined by heat fluxes arising from human consumption of energy, has the most obvious influence. Despite this, estimation of the AHE distribution is challenging and assumed almost uniform in investigations of the regional atmospheric environment. In this study, we introduce a top-down method for estimating a global distribution of AHE (see attachment), with a high spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds and temporal resolution of 1 hour. Annual average AHE was derived from human metabolic heating and primary energy consumption, which was further divided into three components based on consumer sector: heat loss, heat emissions from industrial-related sectors and heat emissions from commercial, residential and transport sectors (CRT). The first and second components were equally distributed throughout the country and populated areas, respectively. Bulk AHE from the CRT was proportionally distributed using a global population dataset with a nighttime lights adjustment. An empirical function to estimate monthly fluctuations of AHE based on monthly temperatures was derived from various city measurements. Finally, a global AHE database was constructed for the year 2013. Comparisons between our proposed AHE and other existing datasets revealed that a problem of AHE underestimation at central urban areas existing in previous top-down models was significantly mitigated by the nighttime lights adjustment. A strong agreement in the monthly profiles of AHE between our database and other bottom-up datasets further proved the validity of our current methodology. Investigations of AHE in the 29 largest urban agglomerations globally highlighted that the share of heat emissions from CRT sectors to the total AHE at the city level was 40-95%, whereas the share of metabolic heating varied closely depending on the level of economic development in the city. Incorporation of our proposed AHE data

Impact of anthropogenic aerosols from global, East Asian, and non-East Asian sources on East Asian summer monsoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qiuyan; Wang, Zhili; Zhang, Hua

2017-01-01

The impact of the total effects due to anthropogenic aerosols from global, East Asian, and non-East Asian sources on East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system is studied using an aerosol-climate online model BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero. The results show that the summer mean net all-sky shortwave fluxes averaged over East Asian monsoon region (EAMR) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface reduce by 4.8 and 5.0 W m- 2, respectively, due to the increases of global aerosol emissions in 2000 relative to 1850. Changes in radiations and their resulting changes in heat and water transport and cloud fraction contribute together to the surface cooling over EAMR in summer. The increases in global anthropogenic aerosols lead to a decrease of 2.1 K in summer mean surface temperature and an increase of 0.4 hPa in summer mean surface pressure averaged over EAMR, respectively. It is shown that the changes in surface temperature and pressure are significantly larger over land than ocean, thus decreasing the contrast of land-sea surface temperature and pressure. This results in the marked anomalies of north and northeast winds over eastern and southern China and the surrounding oceans in summer, thereby weakening the EASM. The summer mean precipitation averaged over the EAMR reduces by 12%. The changes in non-East Asian aerosol emissions play a more important role in inducing the changes of local temperature and pressure, and thus significantly exacerbate the weakness of the EASM circulation due to local aerosol changes. The weakening of circulation due to both is comparable, and even the effect of non-local aerosols is larger in individual regions. The changes of local and non-local aerosols contribute comparably to the reductions in precipitation over oceans, whereas cause opposite changes over eastern China. Our results highlight the importance of aerosol changes outside East Asia in the impact of the changes of anthropogenic aerosols on EASM.

Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere.

PubMed

Ellis, Erle C

2011-03-13

Human populations and their use of land have transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes), causing a variety of novel ecological patterns and processes to emerge. To assess whether human populations and their use of land have directly altered the terrestrial biosphere sufficiently to indicate that the Earth system has entered a new geological epoch, spatially explicit global estimates of human populations and their use of land were analysed across the Holocene for their potential to induce irreversible novel transformation of the terrestrial biosphere. Human alteration of the terrestrial biosphere has been significant for more than 8000 years. However, only in the past century has the majority of the terrestrial biosphere been transformed into intensively used anthromes with predominantly novel anthropogenic ecological processes. At present, even were human populations to decline substantially or use of land become far more efficient, the current global extent, duration, type and intensity of human transformation of ecosystems have already irreversibly altered the terrestrial biosphere at levels sufficient to leave an unambiguous geological record differing substantially from that of the Holocene or any prior epoch. It remains to be seen whether the anthropogenic biosphere will be sustained and continue to evolve.

Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing

PubMed Central

Trapp, Robert J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Brooks, Harold E.; Baldwin, Michael E.; Robinson, Eric D.; Pal, Jeremy S.

2007-01-01

Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the United States might change because of enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or “environmental”) meteorological conditions that foster severe thunderstorm formation. Across this model suite, we find a net increase during the late 21st century in the number of days in which these severe thunderstorm environmental conditions (NDSEV) occur. Attributed primarily to increases in atmospheric water vapor within the planetary boundary layer, the largest increases in NDSEV are shown during the summer season, in proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal regions. For example, this analysis suggests a future increase in NDSEV of 100% or more in locations such as Atlanta, GA, and New York, NY. Any direct application of these results to the frequency of actual storms also must consider the storm initiation.

Global albedo change and radiative cooling from anthropogenic land-cover change, 1700 to 2005 based on MODIS, land-use harmonization and radiative kernels

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Widespread anthropogenic land-cover change over the last five centuries has influenced the global climate system through both biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Models indicate that warming from carbon emissions associated with land cover conversion have been partially offset if not outweigh...

Long term, non-anthropogenic groundwater storage changes simulated by a global land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, B.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is crucial for meeting agricultural, industrial and municipal water needs, especially in arid, semi-arid and drought impacted regions. Yet, knowledge on groundwater response to climate variability is not well understood due to lack of systematic and continuous in situ measurements. In this study, we investigate global non-anthropogenic groundwater storage variations with a land surface model driven by a 67-year (1948-204) meteorological forcing data set. Model estimates were evaluated using in situ groundwater data from the central and northeastern U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and found to be reasonable. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed to examine modes of variability of groundwater storage and their relationship with atmospheric effects such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. The result shows that the leading mode in global groundwater storage reflects the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Consistent with the EOF analysis, global total groundwater storage reflected the low frequency variability of ENSO and decreased significantly over 1948-2014 while global ET and precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends. This study suggests that while precipitation and ET are the primary drivers of climate related groundwater variability, changes in other forcing fields than precipitation and temperature are also important because of their influence on ET. We discuss the need to improve model physics and to continuously validate model estimates and forcing data for future studies.

Weekly cycles of global fires—Associations with religion, wealth and culture, and insights into anthropogenic influences on global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian; Tapper, Nigel

2015-11-01

One approach to quantifying anthropogenic influences on the environment and the consequences of those is to examine weekly cycles (WCs). No long-term natural process occurs on a WC so any such signal can be considered anthropogenic. There is much ongoing scientific debate as to whether regional-scale WCs exist above the statistical noise level, with most significant studies claiming that anthropogenic aerosols and their interaction with solar radiation and clouds (direct/indirect effect) is the controlling factor. A major source of anthropogenic aerosol, underrepresented in the literature, is active fire (AF) from anthropogenic burning for land clearance/management. WCs in AF have not been analyzed heretofore, and these can provide a mechanism for observed regional-scale WCs in several meteorological variables. We show that WCs in AFs are highly pronounced for many parts of the world, strongly influenced by the working week and particularly the day(s) of rest, associated with religious practices.

Evaluating and ranking the vulnerability of global marine ecosystems to anthropogenic threats.

PubMed

Halpern, Benjamin S; Selkoe, Kimberly A; Micheli, Fiorenza; Kappel, Carrie V

2007-10-01

Marine ecosystems are threatened by a suite of anthropogenic stressors. Mitigating multiple threats is a daunting task, particularly when funding constraints limit the number of threats that can be addressed. Threats are typically assessed and prioritized via expert opinion workshops that often leave no record of the rationale for decisions, making it difficult to update recommendations with new information. We devised a transparent, repeatable, and modifiable method for collecting expert opinion that describes and documents how threats affect marine ecosystems. Experts were asked to assess the functional impact, scale, and frequency of a threat to an ecosystem; the resistance and recovery time of an ecosystem to a threat; and the certainty of these estimates. To quantify impacts of 38 distinct anthropogenic threats on 23 marine ecosystems, we surveyed 135 experts from 19 different countries. Survey results showed that all ecosystems are threatened by at least nine threats and that nine ecosystems are threatened by >90% of existing threats. The greatest threats (highest impact scores) were increasing sea temperature, demersal destructive fishing, and point-source organic pollution. Rocky reef, coral reef, hard-shelf, mangrove, and offshore epipelagic ecosystems were identified as the most threatened. These general results, however, may be partly influenced by the specific expertise and geography of respondents, and should be interpreted with caution. This approach to threat analysis can identify the greatest threats (globally or locally), most widespread threats, most (or least) sensitive ecosystems, most (or least) threatened ecosystems, and other metrics of conservation value. Additionally, it can be easily modified, updated as new data become available, and scaled to local or regional settings, which would facilitate informed and transparent conservation priority setting.

Phosphorus accumulates faster than nitrogen globally in freshwater ecosystems under anthropogenic impacts.

PubMed

Yan, Zhengbing; Han, Wenxuan; Peñuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Elser, James J; Du, Enzai; Reich, Peter B; Fang, Jingyun

2016-10-01

Combined effects of cumulative nutrient inputs and biogeochemical processes that occur in freshwater under anthropogenic eutrophication could lead to myriad shifts in nitrogen (N):phosphorus (P) stoichiometry in global freshwater ecosystems, but this is not yet well-assessed. Here we evaluated the characteristics of N and P stoichiometries in bodies of freshwater and their herbaceous macrophytes across human-impact levels, regions and periods. Freshwater and its macrophytes had higher N and P concentrations and lower N : P ratios in heavily than lightly human-impacted environments, further evidenced by spatiotemporal comparisons across eutrophication gradients. N and P concentrations in freshwater ecosystems were positively correlated and N : P was negatively correlated with population density in China. These results indicate a faster accumulation of P than N in human-impacted freshwater ecosystems, which could have large effects on the trophic webs and biogeochemical cycles of estuaries and coastal areas by freshwater loadings, and reinforce the importance of rehabilitating these ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The global anthropogenic gallium system: determinants of demand, supply and efficiency improvements.

PubMed

Løvik, Amund N; Restrepo, Eliette; Müller, Daniel B

2015-05-05

Gallium has been labeled as a critical metal due to rapidly growing consumption, importance for low-carbon technologies such as solid state lighting and photovoltaics, and being produced only as a byproduct of other metals (mainly aluminum). The global system of primary production, manufacturing, use and recycling has not yet been described or quantified in the literature. This prevents predictions of future demand, supply and possibilities for efficiency improvements on a system level. We present a description of the global anthropogenic gallium system and quantify the system using a combination of statistical data and technical parameters. We estimated that gallium was produced from 8 to 21% of alumina plants in 2011. The most important applications of gallium are NdFeB permanent magnets, integrated circuits and GaAs/GaP-based light-emitting diodes, demanding 22-37%, 16-27%, and 11-21% of primary metal production, respectively. GaN-based light-emitting diodes and photovoltaics are less important, both with 2-6%. We estimated that 120-170 tons, corresponding to 40-60% of primary production, ended up in production wastes that were either disposed of or stored. While demand for gallium is expected to rise in the future, our results indicated that it is possible to increase primary production substantially with conventional technology, as well as improve the system-wide material efficiency.

Contribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Emissions to Global CH4 Balances by Utilizing δ13C-CH4 Observations in CarbonTracker Data Assimilation System (CTDAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kangasaho, V. E.; Tsuruta, A.; Aalto, T.; Backman, L. B.; Houweling, S.; Krol, M. C.; Peters, W.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; Lienert, S.; Joos, F.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Michael, S.; White, J. W. C.

2017-12-01

The atmospheric burden of CH4 has more than doubled since preindustrial time. Evaluating the contribution from anthropogenic and natural emissions to the global methane budget is of great importance to better understand the significance of different sources at the global scale, and their contribution to changes in growth rate of atmospheric CH4 before and after 2006. In addition, observations of δ13C-CH4 suggest an increase in natural sources after 2006, which matches the observed increase and variation of CH4 abudance. Methane emission sources can be identified using δ13C-CH4, because different sources produce methane with process-specific isotopic signatures. This study focuses on inversion model based estimates of global anthropogenic and natural methane emission rates to evaluate the existing methane emission estimates with a new δ13C-CH4 inversion system. In situ measurements of atmospheric methane and δ13C-CH4 isotopic signature, provided by the NOAA Global Monitoring Division and the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, will be assimilated into the CTDAS-13C-CH4. The system uses the TM5 atmospheric transport model as an observation operator, constrained by ECMWF ERA Interim meteorological fields, and off-line TM5 chemistry fields to account for the atmospheric methane sink. LPX-Bern DYPTOP ecosystem model is used for prior natural methane emissions from wetlands, peatlands and mineral soils, GFED v4 for prior fire emissions and EDGAR v4.2 FT2010 inventory for prior anthropogenic emissions. The EDGAR antropogenic emissions are re-divided into enteric fermentation and manure management, landfills and waste water, rice, coal, oil and gas, and residential emissions, and the trend of total emissions is scaled to match optimized anthropogenic emissions from CTE-CH4. In addition to these categories, emissions from termites and oceans are included. Process specific δ13C-CH4 isotopic signatures are assigned to each emission source to estimate 13CH4 fraction

Simulating global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krumhardt, K. M.

2015-12-01

Surface albedo changes from anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) represent the second-largest negative radiative forcing behind aerosol during the industrial era. Using a new reconstruction of ALCC during the Holocene era by Kaplan et al. [2011], we quantify the local and global temperature response induced by Holocene ALCC in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). With 1-degree resolution of the CCSM4 slab-ocean model,we find that Holocene ALCC cause a global cooling of 0.17 °C due to the biogeophysical effects of land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture, radiative and heat fluxes. On the global scale, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC from carbon emissions dominate the biogeophysical effects by causing 0.9 °C global warming. The net effects of Holocene ALCC amount to a global warming of 0.73 °C during the pre-industrial era, which is comparable to the ~0.8 °C warming during industrial times. On local to regional scales, such as parts of Europe, North America and Asia, the biogeophysical effects of Holocene ALCC are significant and comparable to the biogeochemical effect. The lack of ocean dynamics in the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations could underestimate the climate sensitivity because of the lack of feedbacks from ocean heat transport [Kutzbach et al., 2013; Manabe and Bryan, 1985]. In 1° CCSM4 fully coupled simulations, the climate sensitivity is ~65% larger than the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations during the Holocene (5.3 °C versus 3.2 °C) [Kutzbach et al., 2013]. With this greater climate sensitivity, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could have caused a global warming of ~1.5 °C, and the net biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could cause a global warming of 1.2 °C during the preindustrial era in our simulations, which is 50% higher than the global warming of ~0.8 °C during industrial times.

HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; ...

2015-02-13

Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanxu; Jacob, Daniel J; Horowitz, Hannah M; Chen, Long; Amos, Helen M; Krabbenhoft, David P; Slemr, Franz; St Louis, Vincent L; Sunderland, Elsie M

2016-01-19

Observations of elemental mercury (Hg(0)) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼ 1-2% y(-1)) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y(-1)). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg(0)/Hg(II) speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg(0) emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg(0) concentrations and in Hg(II) wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Jung, Jaegun; Kumar, Naresh; Yarwood, Greg

2016-09-01

Estimates of North American and US Background (NAB and USB) ozone (O3) are critical in setting and implementing the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and therefore influence population exposure to O3 across the US. NAB is defined as the O3 concentration in the absence of anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions from North America whereas USB excludes anthropogenic emissions inside the US alone. NAB and USB vary geographically and with time of year. Analyses of O3 trends at rural locations near the west coast suggest that background O3 is rising in response to increasing non-US emissions. As the O3 NAAQS is lowered, rising background O3 would make attaining the NAAQS more difficult. Most studies of changing US background O3 have inferred trends from observations whereas air quality management decisions tend to rely on models. Thus, it is important that the models used to develop O3 management strategies are able to represent the changes in background O3 in order to increase confidence that air quality management strategies will succeed. We focus on how changing global emissions influence USB rather than the effects of inter-annual meteorological variation or long-term climate change. We use a regional model (CAMx) nested within a global model (GEOS-Chem) to refine our grid resolution over high terrain in the western US and near US borders where USB tends to be higher. We determine USB from CAMx simulations that exclude US anthropogenic emissions. Over five decades, from 1970 to 2020, estimated USB for the annual fourth highest maximum daily 8-h average O3 (H4MDA8) in the western US increased from mostly in the range of 40-55 ppb to 45-60 ppb, but remained below 45 ppb in the eastern US. USB increases in the southwestern US are consistent with rising emissions in Asia and Mexico. USB decreases in the northeast US after 1990 follow declining Canadian emissions. Our results show that the USB increases both for the top 30 MDA8 days and the H4MDA8 (the former

Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

DOE PAGES

Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

2015-12-21

Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here in this work, we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is stillmore » weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Finally, hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.« less

Global terrestrial N2O budget for present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olin, Stefan; Xing, Xu-Ri; Wårlind, David; Eliasson, Peter; Smith, Ben; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

Nitrogen (N) plays an important role in plant productivity and physiology and is the main limiting nutrient in a majority of the terrestrial ecosystems. The enhanced input of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) in agriculture have enhanced global food production, but with adverse effects on biodiversity and water quality, and substantially increased emissions of N trace gases that affect air quality and climate. Emissions of N gases affects the climate, either through cloud forming nitrogen oxides (NOx) gases or as greenhouse gases, where nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important being approximately 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study we use the process-based global vegetation model Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) (Olin et al. 2015) that recently have incorporated a new soil N transformation scheme, adopted from Xu-Ri and Prentice (2008), which makes it possible to study the N2O emission respond to changes in climate and CO2 concentration as well as anthropogenic N enhancements on a global scale. We present here results from the validation of the new model against site-scale N2O measurements from agricultural and non-agricultural ecosystems. We will also present results from a study to examine how land use, land use change and anthropogenic N fertilisation influence historical and future global N2O emissions. This new development represents a key component within future projects in CMIP6 (LUMIP) and in EC-Earth for the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO. Olin, S., Lindeskog, M., Pugh, T., Schurgers, G., Mischurow, M., Wårlind, D., Zaehle, S., Stocker, B., Smith, B. and Arneth, A. 2015. Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching. Earth System Dynamics, 6, 745-768. Xu-Ri and Prentice IC. 2008. Terrestrial nitrogen cycle simulation with a dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology, 14, 1745-1764.

Influence of anthropogenic aerosol on cloud optical depth and albedo shown by satellite measurements and chemical transport modeling.

PubMed

Schwartz, Stephen E; Harshvardhan; Benkovitz, Carmen M

2002-02-19

The Twomey effect of enhanced cloud droplet concentration, optical depth, and albedo caused by anthropogenic aerosols is thought to contribute substantially to radiative forcing of climate change over the industrial period. However, present model-based estimates of this indirect forcing are highly uncertain. Satellite-based measurements would provide global or near-global coverage of this effect, but previous efforts to identify and quantify enhancement of cloud albedo caused by anthropogenic aerosols in satellite observations have been limited, largely because of strong dependence of albedo on cloud liquid water path (LWP), which is inherently highly variable. Here we examine satellite-derived cloud radiative properties over two 1-week episodes for which a chemical transport and transformation model indicates substantial influx of sulfate aerosol from industrial regions of Europe or North America to remote areas of the North Atlantic. Despite absence of discernible dependence of optical depth or albedo on modeled sulfate loading, examination of the dependence of these quantities on LWP readily permits detection and quantification of increases correlated with sulfate loading, which are otherwise masked by variability of LWP, demonstrating brightening of clouds because of the Twomey effect on a synoptic scale. Median cloud-top spherical albedo was enhanced over these episodes, relative to the unperturbed base case for the same LWP distribution, by 0.02 to 0.15.

Advances in global mountain geomorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaymaker, Olav; Embleton-Hamann, Christine

2018-05-01

Three themes in global mountain geomorphology have been defined and reinforced over the past decade: (a) new ways of measuring, sensing, and analyzing mountain morphology; (b) a new emphasis on disconnectivity in mountain geomorphology; and (c) the emergence of concerns about the increasing influence of anthropogenic disturbance of the mountain geomorphic environment, especially in intertropical mountains where population densities are higher than in any other mountain region. Anthropogenically induced hydroclimate change increases geomorphic hazards and risks but also provides new opportunities for mountain landscape enhancement. Each theme is considered with respect to the distinctiveness of mountain geomorphology and in relation to important advances in research over the past decade. The traditional reliance on the high energy condition to define mountain geomorphology seems less important than the presence of unique mountain landforms and landscapes and the distinctive ways in which human activity and anthropogenically induced hydroclimate change are transforming mountain landscapes.

The impact of biogenic, anthropogenic, and biomass burning volatile organic compound emissions on regional and seasonal variations in secondary organic aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, Jamie M.; Doherty, Ruth M.; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Mann, Graham W.

2018-05-01

The global secondary organic aerosol (SOA) budget is highly uncertain, with global annual SOA production rates, estimated from global models, ranging over an order of magnitude and simulated SOA concentrations underestimated compared to observations. In this study, we use a global composition-climate model (UKCA) with interactive chemistry and aerosol microphysics to provide an in-depth analysis of the impact of each VOC source on the global SOA budget and its seasonality. We further quantify the role of each source on SOA spatial distributions, and evaluate simulated seasonal SOA concentrations against a comprehensive set of observations. The annual global SOA production rates from monoterpene, isoprene, biomass burning, and anthropogenic precursor sources is 19.9, 19.6, 9.5, and 24.6 Tg (SOA) a-1, respectively. When all sources are included, the SOA production rate from all sources is 73.6 Tg (SOA) a-1, which lies within the range of estimates from previous modelling studies. SOA production rates and SOA burdens from biogenic and biomass burning SOA sources peak during Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer. In contrast, the anthropogenic SOA production rate is fairly constant all year round. However, the global anthropogenic SOA burden does have a seasonal cycle which is lowest during NH summer, which is probably due to enhanced wet removal. Inclusion of the new SOA sources also accelerates the ageing by condensation of primary organic aerosol (POA), making it more hydrophilic, leading to a reduction in the POA lifetime. With monoterpene as the only source of SOA, simulated SOA and total organic aerosol (OA) concentrations are underestimated by the model when compared to surface and aircraft measurements. Model agreement with observations improves with all new sources added, primarily due to the inclusion of the anthropogenic source of SOA, although a negative bias remains. A further sensitivity simulation was performed with an increased anthropogenic SOA reaction

Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yanxu; Jacob, Daniel J.; Horowitz, Hannah M.; Chen, Long; Amos, Helen M.; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Slemr, Franz; St. Louis, Vincent L.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

2016-01-01

Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y−1). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg0/HgII speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities. PMID:26729866

Anthropogenic Sulfate, Clouds, and Climate Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghan, Steven J.

1997-01-01

This research work is a joint effort between research groups at the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Virginia Tech University, Georgia Institute of Technology, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University. It has been jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In this research, a detailed tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model that predicts oxidant concentrations as well as concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosols has been coupled to a general circulation model that distinguishes between cloud water mass and cloud droplet number. The coupled model system has been first validated and then used to estimate the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfur emissions. Both the direct radiative impact of the aerosols and their indirect impact through their influence on cloud droplet number are represented by distinguishing between sulfuric acid vapor and fresh and aged sulfate aerosols, and by parameterizing cloud droplet nucleation in terms of vertical velocity and the number concentration of aged sulfur aerosols. Natural sulfate aerosols, dust, and carbonaceous and nitrate aerosols and their influence on the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, through competition as cloud condensation nuclei, will also be simulated. Parallel simulations with and without anthropogenic sulfur emissions are performed for a global domain. The objectives of the research are: To couple a state-of-the-art tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model with a global climate model. To use field and satellite measurements to evaluate the treatment of tropospheric chemistry and aerosol physics in the coupled model. To use the coupled model to simulate the radiative (and ultimately climatic) impacts of anthropogenic sulfur emissions.

CLIMATE VARIABILITY, ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGE, AND CONSEQUENCES IN THE MID-ATLANTIC

EPA Science Inventory

When compared to the preceding millennium, the rate of temperature change over the past century strongly suggests that we are in a period of rapid global climate change. Globally, continued anthropogenic increases in concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases probably will re...

Changes in temporal variability of precipitation over land due to anthropogenic forcings

DOE PAGES

Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok; Leung, L. Ruby

2017-02-02

This study investigated the anthropogenic influence on the temporal variability of annual precipitation for the period 1950-2005 as simulated by the CMIP5 models. The temporal variability of both annual precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) and intensity (SDII) was first measured using a metric of statistical dispersion called the Gini coefficient. Comparing simulations driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcings (ALL) with simulations of natural forcings only (NAT), we quantified the anthropogenic contributions to the changes in temporal variability at global, continental and sub-continental scales as a relative difference of the respective Gini coefficients of ALL and NAT. Over the period of 1950-2005,more » our results indicate that anthropogenic forcings have resulted in decreased uniformity (i.e., increase in unevenness or disparity) in annual precipitation amount and intensity at global as well as continental scales. In addition, out of the 21 sub-continental regions considered, 14 (PRCPTOT) and 17 (SDII) regions showed significant anthropogenic influences. The human impacts are generally larger for SDII compared to PRCTOT, indicating that the temporal variability of precipitation intensity is generally more susceptible to anthropogenic influence than precipitation amount. Lastly, the results highlight that anthropogenic activities have changed not only the trends but also the temporal variability of annual precipitation, which underscores the need to develop effective adaptation management practices to address the increased disparity.« less

Responses of surface ozone air quality to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition in the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yuanhong; Zhang, Lin; Tai, Amos P. K.; Chen, Youfan; Pan, Yuepeng

2017-08-01

Human activities have substantially increased atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen to the Earth's surface, inducing unintentional effects on ecosystems with complex environmental and climate consequences. One consequence remaining unexplored is how surface air quality might respond to the enhanced nitrogen deposition through surface-atmosphere exchange. Here we combine a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and a global land model (Community Land Model, CLM) to address this issue with a focus on ozone pollution in the Northern Hemisphere. We consider three processes that are important for surface ozone and can be perturbed by the addition of atmospheric deposited nitrogen - namely, emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ozone dry deposition, and soil nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. We find that present-day anthropogenic nitrogen deposition (65 Tg N a-1 to the land), through enhancing plant growth (represented as increases in vegetation leaf area index, LAI, in the model), could increase surface ozone from increased biogenic VOC emissions (e.g., a 6.6 Tg increase in isoprene emission), but it could also decrease ozone due to higher ozone dry deposition velocities (up to 0.02-0.04 cm s-1 increases). Meanwhile, deposited anthropogenic nitrogen to soil enhances soil NOx emissions. The overall effect on summer mean surface ozone concentrations shows general increases over the globe (up to 1.5-2.3 ppbv over the western US and South Asia), except for some regions with high anthropogenic NOx emissions (0.5-1.0 ppbv decreases over the eastern US, western Europe, and North China). We compare the surface ozone changes with those driven by the past 20-year climate and historical land use changes. We find that the impacts from anthropogenic nitrogen deposition can be comparable to the climate- and land-use-driven surface ozone changes at regional scales and partly offset the surface ozone reductions due to land use changes reported in previous studies

Evaluation and Optimization of China's Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions using Observations from Northern China (2005-2009).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dayalu, A.; Munger, J. W.; Wang, Y.; Wofsy, S.; Zhao, Y.; Nielsen, C. P.; Nehrkorn, T.; McElroy, M. B.; Chang, R.

2017-12-01

China has pledged to peak carbon emissions by 2030, but there continues to be significant uncertainty in estimates of its anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In this study, we evaluate the performance of three anthropogenic CO2 inventories, two global and one regional, using five years of continuous hourly observations from a site in Northern China. We model five years of continuous hourly observations (2005 to 2009) using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport Model (STILT) run in backward time mode driven by high resolution meteorology from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model version 3.6.1 (WRF) with vegetation fluxes prescribed by a simple biosphere model. We calculate regional enhancements to advected background CO2 derived from NOAA CarbonTracker on seasonal and annual bases and use observations to optimize emissions inventories within the site's influence region at these timescales. Finally, we use annual enhancements to examine carbon intensity of provinces in and adjacent to Northern China as CO2 per unit of the region's GDP to evaluate the effects of local and global economic events on CO2 emissions. With the exception of peak growing season where discrepancies are confounded by errors in the vegetation model, we find the regional inventory agrees significantly better with observations than the global inventories at all timescales. Here we use a single measurement site; significant improvements in inventory optimizations can be achieved with a network of measurements stations. This study highlights the importance of China-specific data over global averages in emissions evaluation and demonstrates the value of top-down studies in independently evaluating inventory performance. We demonstrate the framework's ability to resolve differences of at least 20% among inventories, establishing a benchmark for ongoing efforts to decrease uncertainty in China's reported CO2 emissions estimates.

Who decides who has won the bet? Total and Anthropogenic Warming Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, K.; Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E. L.; Schmidt, A.; Frame, D. J.; Forster, P.; Matthews, D.

2016-12-01

An extension of the idea of betting markets as a means of revealing opinions about future climate are climate policies indexed to geophysical indicators: for example, to ensure net zero global carbon dioxide emissions by the time anthropogenic warming reaches 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial, given about 1 degree of warming already, emissions must fall, on average, by 20% of their current value for every tenth of a degree of anthropogenic warming from now on. In principle, policies conditioned on some measure of attributable warming are robust to uncertainty in the global climate response: the risk of a higher or lower response than expected is borne by those affected by climate change mitigation policy rather than those affected by climate change impacts, as is the case with emission targets for specific years based on "current understanding" of the response. To implement any indexed policy, or to agree payout terms for any bet on future climate, requires consensus on the definition of the index: how is it calculated, and who is responsible for releasing it? The global mean surface temperature of the current decade relative to pre-industrial may vary by 0.1 degree or more depending on precisely what is measured, what is defined as pre-industrial, and the treatment of regions with sparse data coverage in earlier years. Indices defined using different conventions, however, are all expected to evolve very similarly over the coming decades, so agreeing on a conservative, traceable index such as HadCRUT is more important than debating the "true" global temperature. A more important question is whether indexed policies and betting markets should focus on total warming, including natural and anthropogenic drivers and internal variability, or an Anthropogenic Warming Index (AWI) representing an unbiased estimate of warming attributable to human influence to date. We propose a simple AWI based solely on observed temperatures and global natural and anthropogenic forcing

Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew D.; Black, Mitchell T.; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich M.; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Harrington, Luke J.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.

2016-04-01

Climate scientists have demonstrated that a substantial fraction of the probability of numerous recent extreme events may be attributed to human-induced climate change. However, it is likely that for temperature extremes occurring over previous decades a fraction of their probability was attributable to anthropogenic influences. We identify the first record-breaking warm summers and years for which a discernible contribution can be attributed to human influence. We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record-breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence. Aerosol-induced cooling delays the timing of a significant human contribution to record-breaking events in some regions. Without human-induced climate change recent hot summers and years would be very unlikely to have occurred.

Polychaete richness and abundance enhanced in anthropogenically modified estuaries despite high concentrations of toxic contaminants.

PubMed

Dafforn, Katherine A; Kelaher, Brendan P; Simpson, Stuart L; Coleman, Melinda A; Hutchings, Pat A; Clark, Graeme F; Knott, Nathan A; Doblin, Martina A; Johnston, Emma L

2013-01-01

Ecological communities are increasingly exposed to multiple chemical and physical stressors, but distinguishing anthropogenic impacts from other environmental drivers remains challenging. Rarely are multiple stressors investigated in replicated studies over large spatial scales (>1000 kms) or supported with manipulations that are necessary to interpret ecological patterns. We measured the composition of sediment infaunal communities in relation to anthropogenic and natural stressors at multiple sites within seven estuaries. We observed increases in the richness and abundance of polychaete worms in heavily modified estuaries with severe metal contamination, but no changes in the diversity or abundance of other taxa. Estuaries in which toxic contaminants were elevated also showed evidence of organic enrichment. We hypothesised that the observed response of polychaetes was not a 'positive' response to toxic contamination or a reduction in biotic competition, but due to high levels of nutrients in heavily modified estuaries driving productivity in the water column and enriching the sediment over large spatial scales. We deployed defaunated field-collected sediments from the surveyed estuaries in a small scale experiment, but observed no effects of sediment characteristics (toxic or enriching). Furthermore, invertebrate recruitment instead reflected the low diversity and abundance observed during field surveys of this relatively 'pristine' estuary. This suggests that differences observed in the survey are not a direct consequence of sediment characteristics (even severe metal contamination) but are related to parameters that covary with estuary modification such as enhanced productivity from nutrient inputs and the diversity of the local species pool. This has implications for the interpretation of diversity measures in large-scale monitoring studies in which the observed patterns may be strongly influenced by many factors that covary with anthropogenic modification.

Anthropogenic noise alters dwarf mongoose responses to heterospecific alarm calls.

PubMed

Morris-Drake, Amy; Bracken, Anna M; Kern, Julie M; Radford, Andrew N

2017-04-01

Anthropogenic noise is an evolutionarily novel and widespread pollutant in both terrestrial and aquatic habitats. Despite increasing evidence that the additional noise generated by human activities can affect vocal communication, the majority of research has focused on the use of conspecific acoustic information, especially sexual signals. Many animals are known to eavesdrop on the alarm calls produced by other species, enhancing their likelihood of avoiding predation, but how this use of heterospecific information is affected by anthropogenic noise has received little empirical attention. Here, we use two field-based playback experiments on a habituated wild population of dwarf mongooses (Helogale parvula) to determine how anthropogenic noise influences the response of foragers to heterospecific alarm calls. We begin by demonstrating that dwarf mongooses respond appropriately to the alarm calls of sympatric chacma baboons (Papio ursinus) and tree squirrels (Paraxerus cepapi); fleeing only to the latter. We then show that mongoose foragers are less likely to exhibit this flee response to tree squirrel alarm calls during road-noise playback compared to ambient-sound playback. One explanation for the change in response is that noise-induced distraction or stress result in maladaptive behaviour. However, further analysis revealed that road-noise playback results in increased vigilance and that mongooses showing the greatest vigilance increase are those that do not subsequently exhibit a flee response to the alarm call. These individuals may therefore be acting appropriately: if the greater gathering of personal information indicates the absence of an actual predator despite an alarm call, the need to undertake costly fleeing behaviour can be avoided. Either way, our study indicates the potential for anthropogenic noise to interfere with the use of acoustic information from other species, and suggests the importance of considering how heterospecific networks are

Mixing of Dust and NH3 Observed Globally over Anthropogenic Dust Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ginoux, P.; Clarisse, L.; Clerbaux, C.; Coheur, P.-F.; Dubovik, O.; Hsu, N. C.; Van Damme, M.

2012-01-01

The global distribution of dust column burden derived from MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products is compared to NH3 column burden retrieved from IASI infrared spectra. We found similarities in their spatial distributions, in particular their hot spots are often collocated over croplands and to a lesser extent pastures. Globally, we found 22% of dust burden collocated with NH3, with only 1% difference between land-use databases. This confirms the importance of anthropogenic dust from agriculture. Regionally, the Indian subcontinent has the highest amount of dust mixed with NH3 (26 %), mostly over cropland and during the pre-monsoon season. North Africa represents 50% of total dust burden but accounts for only 4% of mixed dust, which is found over croplands and pastures in Sahel and the coastal region of the Mediterranean. In order to evaluate the radiative effect of this mixing on dust optical properties, we derive the mass extinction efficiency for various mixtures of dust and NH3, using AERONET sunphotometers data. We found that for dusty days the coarse mode mass extinction efficiency decreases from 0.62 to 0.48 square meters per gram as NH3 burden increases from 0 to 40 milligrams per square meter. The fine mode extinction efficiency, ranging from 4 to 16 square mters per gram, does not appear to depend on NH3 concentration or relative humidity but rather on mineralogical composition and mixing with other aerosols. Our results imply that a significant amount of dust is already mixed with ammonium salt before its long range transport. This in turn will affect dust lifetime, and its interactions with radiation and cloud properties

Satellite Observations of the Effect of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols on Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.

2006-01-01

Our knowledge of atmospheric aerosols (smoke, pollution, dust or sea salt particles, small enough to be suspended in the air), their evolution, composition, variability in space and time and interaction with clouds and precipitation is still lacking despite decades of research. Understanding the global aerosol system is critical to quantifying anthropogenic climate change, to determine climate sensitivity from observations and to understand the hydrological cycle. While a single instrument was used to demonstrate 50 years ago that the global CO2 levels are rising, posing threat of global warming, we need an array of satellites and field measurements coupled with chemical transport models to understand the global aerosol system. This complexity of the aerosol problem results from their short lifetime (1 week) and variable chemical composition. A new generation of satellites provides exciting opportunities to measure the global distribution of aerosols, distinguishing natural from anthropogenic aerosol and measuring their interaction with clouds and climate.

Polychaete Richness and Abundance Enhanced in Anthropogenically Modified Estuaries Despite High Concentrations of Toxic Contaminants

PubMed Central

Dafforn, Katherine A.; Kelaher, Brendan P.; Simpson, Stuart L.; Coleman, Melinda A.; Hutchings, Pat A.; Clark, Graeme F.; Knott, Nathan A.; Doblin, Martina A.; Johnston, Emma L.

2013-01-01

Ecological communities are increasingly exposed to multiple chemical and physical stressors, but distinguishing anthropogenic impacts from other environmental drivers remains challenging. Rarely are multiple stressors investigated in replicated studies over large spatial scales (>1000 kms) or supported with manipulations that are necessary to interpret ecological patterns. We measured the composition of sediment infaunal communities in relation to anthropogenic and natural stressors at multiple sites within seven estuaries. We observed increases in the richness and abundance of polychaete worms in heavily modified estuaries with severe metal contamination, but no changes in the diversity or abundance of other taxa. Estuaries in which toxic contaminants were elevated also showed evidence of organic enrichment. We hypothesised that the observed response of polychaetes was not a ‘positive’ response to toxic contamination or a reduction in biotic competition, but due to high levels of nutrients in heavily modified estuaries driving productivity in the water column and enriching the sediment over large spatial scales. We deployed defaunated field-collected sediments from the surveyed estuaries in a small scale experiment, but observed no effects of sediment characteristics (toxic or enriching). Furthermore, invertebrate recruitment instead reflected the low diversity and abundance observed during field surveys of this relatively ‘pristine’ estuary. This suggests that differences observed in the survey are not a direct consequence of sediment characteristics (even severe metal contamination) but are related to parameters that covary with estuary modification such as enhanced productivity from nutrient inputs and the diversity of the local species pool. This has implications for the interpretation of diversity measures in large-scale monitoring studies in which the observed patterns may be strongly influenced by many factors that covary with anthropogenic

OCO-2 and GOSAT observations of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maksyutov, S. S.; Yadav, V.; Eldering, A.; Janardanan Achari, R.; Saito, M.; Oda, T.

2017-12-01

We apply high resolution transport modeling with Lagrangian transport model Flexpart to analyze CO2 emission signatures in the total column XCO2 observed by OCO-2 and GOSAT satellites in 2014-2016. To reduce computational load for transport modeling, the OCO-2 observations are aggregated into 1 second averages prepared separately for two groups (left and right) made of simultaneously measured eight OCO-2 observations (footprints). Each group has surface footprint size close to 0.1 degree. The spatial distribution of CO2 concentrations, resulting from anthropogenic emissions, are estimated with the transport model for all GOSAT and OCO-2 observation locations using high-resolution emission inventory (ODIAC) and biospheric exchange simulated with VISIT model at 0.1 degree resolution. Based on this estimate, using a threshold value of 0.1 ppm, the observations are classified into two categories: data contaminated by the anthropogenic sources and those not including this contamination. To extract concentration enhancements due to the anthropogenic emissions, we define a clean background (the averaged values for the data free from contamination by anthropogenic emissions) in 10° by 10° regions over the globe that are subtracted from the observational data including anthropogenic contamination. These anomalies are binned and analyzed to see a match between observed and simulated enhancements. For both OCO-2 and GOSAT, we found linear relations between model and observed anomalies. Similar to the earlier findings made with GOSAT; enhancements observed by OCO-2 match the simulated ones with a regression slope close to unity. Even after aggregation of OCO-2 data into groups of up to 12 individual soundings, the number of enhanced XCO2 observations by OCO-2 is 15 and 25 times larger than that of GOSAT in each 0.1 ppm bin, in the range of simulated enhancements between 0.1 and 2 ppm. The result confirms high potential of using OCO-2 observations for analyzing anthropogenic

Anthropogenic Environments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Aerosols or airborne dust can originate from sources unrelated to anthropogenic activity but may also be initiated or exacerbated by anthropogenic actions. Anthropogenic dust refers to dust activity (emission and suppression) that is present due to human activity. Wind erosion in the U.S. is a sign...

Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

2018-01-01

We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

The Impact of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change on Continental River Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterling, S. M.; Ducharne, A.; Polcher, J.

2006-12-01

The 2003 World Water Forum highlighted a water crisis that forces over one billion people to drink contaminated water and leaves countless millions with insufficient supplies for agriculture industry. This crisis has spurred numerous recent calls for improved science and understanding of how we alter the water cycle. Here we investigate how this global water crisis is affected by human-caused land cover change. We examine the impact of the present extent of land cover change on the water cycle, in particular on evapotranspiration and streamflow, through numerical experiments with the ORCHIDEE land surface model. Using Geographic Information Systems, we characterise land cover change by assembling and modifying existing global-scale maps of land cover change. To see how the land cover change impacts river runoff streamflow, we input the maps into ORCHIDEE and run 50-year "potential vegetation" and "current land cover" simulations of the land surface and energy fluxes, forced by the 50-year NCC atmospheric forcing data set. We present global maps showing the "hotspot" areas with the largest change in ET and streamflow due to anthropogenic land cover change. The results of this project enhance scientific understanding of the nature of human impact on the global water cycle.

Enhancement of the Investigations of Global Marine Challenges Through the European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water-column Observatory (EMSO) Research Infrastructure (RI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo Bue, N.; Materia, P.; Embriaco, D.; Beranzoli, L.; Favali, P.; Leijala, U.; Pavan, G.; Best, M.; Ó Conchubhair, D.; O'Rourke, E.

2017-12-01

The approach of ocean observations has changed significantly over the past decades. Thanks to the development of new technologies improving the monitoring systems and also to the recent marine strategies such as the blue growth that support long term sustainable growth in marine sectors as a whole, it is now possible to better assess environmental issues. Long term multiparametric observations enable concurrent monitoring of a variety of natural and anthropogenic processes responsible for the alteration of marine ecosystems. This innovative process has been adopted by RIs, which have the ability to promote these unique cooperation opportunities via their global networks of observational infrastructures. EMSO (http://www.emso-eu.org) is a marine RI that contributes to further exploration and monitoring of European-scale oceans. This monitoring allows for a better understanding of various parameters from the upper layer of the water column through the deep sea and into the seafloor. The multidisciplinary approach taken by the EMSO RI assists in addressing questions across issues of climate change, marine ecosystems, and geohazards. For example, the growing societal implications due to geohazards require accurate and cross-disciplinary research involving a global community. A global and multidisciplinary approach is the key driver that allows us to better investigate the causes of geohazards in their worldwide distribution, and to produce reliable regional and global models. RIs, also represent a powerful tool in assessing the impacts of anthropogenic noise levels on marine fauna. Several studies have already shown how the significant variety of submarine acoustic pollution on a daily basis can have a substantial effect on the health and communication abilities of marine fauna. The constant noise pollution may produce physiological degradation in marine fauna and may also negatively impact several ecosystems. Finally, RIs play a crucial role in the sharing of

Anthropogenic disturbance equalizes diversity levels in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities.

PubMed

García de León, David; Davison, John; Moora, Mari; Öpik, Maarja; Feng, Huyuan; Hiiesalu, Inga; Jairus, Teele; Koorem, Kadri; Liu, Yongjun; Phosri, Cherdchai; Sepp, Siim-Kaarel; Vasar, Martti; Zobel, Martin

2018-03-24

The arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) symbiosis is a key plant-microbe interaction in sustainable functioning ecosystems. Increasing anthropogenic disturbance poses a threat to AM fungal communities worldwide, but there is little empirical evidence about its potential negative consequences. In this global study, we sequenced AM fungal DNA in soil samples collected from pairs of natural (undisturbed) and anthropogenic (disturbed) plots in two ecosystem types (10 naturally wooded and six naturally unwooded ecosystems). We found that ecosystem type had stronger directional effects than anthropogenic disturbance on AM fungal alpha and beta diversity. However, disturbance increased alpha and beta diversity at sites where natural diversity was low and decreased diversity at sites where natural diversity was high. Cultured AM fungal taxa were more prevalent in anthropogenic than natural plots, probably due to their efficient colonization strategies and ability to recover from disturbance. We conclude that anthropogenic disturbance does not have a consistent directional effect on AM fungal diversity; rather, disturbance equalizes levels of diversity at large scales and causes changes in community functional structure. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Plastics and other anthropogenic debris in freshwater birds from Canada.

PubMed

Holland, Erika R; Mallory, Mark L; Shutler, Dave

2016-11-15

Plastics in marine environments are a global environmental issue. Plastic ingestion is associated with a variety of deleterious health effects in marine wildlife, and is a focus of much international research and monitoring. However, little research has focused on ramifications of plastic debris for freshwater organisms, despite marine and freshwater environments often having comparable plastic concentrations. We quantified plastic and other anthropogenic debris in 350 individuals of 17 freshwater and one marine bird species collected across Canada. We determined freshwater birds' anthropogenic debris ingestion rates to be 11.1% across all species studied. This work establishes that plastics and other anthropogenic debris are a genuine concern for management of the health of freshwater ecosystems, and provides a baseline for the prevalence of plastic and other anthropogenic debris ingestion in freshwater birds in Canada, with relevance for many other locations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GOSAT observations of anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide and methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janardanan, Rajesh; Maksyutov, Shamil; Oda, Tomohiro; Saito, Makoto; Ito, Akihiko; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Ganshin, Alexander; Yoshida, Yukio; Yokota, Tatsuya; Matsunaga, Tsuneo

2017-04-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the most important greenhouse gases in terms of radiative forcing. Human activities such as combustion of fossil fuel (for CO2), and gas leakage, animal agriculture, rice cultivation and landfill emissions (for CH4), are considered to be major sources of their emissions. Global emissions datasets usually depend on emission estimates reported by countries, which are seldom evaluated in an objective way. Here we present a method for delineating anthropogenic contributions to global atmospheric CO2 and CH4 (2009-2014) concentration fields using GOSAT observations of column-average dry air mole fractions (XCO2 and XCH4) and atmospheric transport model simulations using high-resolution emissions datasets (ODIAC for CO2 and EDGAR for CH4). The XCO2 and XCH4 concentration enhancements due to anthropogenic emissions are estimated at all GOSAT observation locations using the transport model simulation. We calculated threshold values to classify GOSAT observations into two categories: (1) data influenced by the anthropogenic sources and (2) those not influenced. We defined a clean background (averaged concentrations of GOSAT data that are free from contamination) in 10˚ ×10˚ regions over the globe and subtracted the background values from individual GOSAT observations. The anomalies (GOSAT observed values minus background values) were binned and compared to model-based anomalies over continental regions and selected countries. For CO2, we have found global and regional linear relationships between model and observed anomalies especially for Eurasia and North America. The analysis for East Asian region showed a systematic bias that is somewhat comparable in magnitude to the uncertainties in emission inventories in that region, which were reported by recent studies. In the case of CH4, we found a good match between inventory-based estimates and GOSAT observations for continental regions and large countries. The inventory

Estimate of the Aerosol Anthropogenic Component and Focusing from Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram; Remer, Lorraine A.; Chin, Mian

2004-01-01

Satellite measurements of aerosol do not contain information on the chemical composition needed to resolve anthropogenic vs. natural aerosol components. Besides, the same chemical species can have natural and anthropogenic origins. However the ability of the new satellite instruments (MODIS, MISR, POLDER) to distinguish fine from coarse aerosols over the oceans, can be used as a signature of the presence of anthropogenic component and used to measure the fraction of the aerosol originating from anthropogenic activity with an uncertainty of 10 percent for aerosol optical thickness larger than 0.1. We develop the methods and investigated it using model calculations (GOCART) and satellite data (MODIS). Preliminary application to 2 years of global MODIS data shows that 0.200.08 of the aerosol optical thickness and radiative effect has anthropogenic origin. The resultant aerosol forcing over cloud free oceans is 1.30.6 W/sq m, larger than model simulations. Further research until the presentation will probably modify these values.

Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake

PubMed Central

Keenan, Trevor F; Prentice, I. Colin; Canadell, Josep G; Williams, Christopher A; Wang, Han; Raupach, Michael; Collatz, G. James

2016-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle and offset a large fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The terrestrial carbon sink is increasing, yet the mechanisms responsible for its enhancement, and implications for the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, remain unclear. Here using global carbon budget estimates, ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple global vegetation models, we report a recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, and a decline in the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remain in the atmosphere, despite increasing anthropogenic emissions. We attribute the observed decline to increases in the terrestrial sink during the past decade, associated with the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on vegetation and the slowdown in the rate of warming on global respiration. The pause in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate provides further evidence of the roles of CO2 fertilization and warming-induced respiration, and highlights the need to protect both existing carbon stocks and regions, where the sink is growing rapidly. PMID:27824333

Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake

DOE PAGES

Keenan, Trevor F.; Prentice, I. Colin; Canadell, Josep G.; ...

2016-11-08

Terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle and offset a large fraction of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. The terrestrial carbon sink is increasing, yet the mechanisms responsible for its enhancement, and implications for the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2, remain unclear. Here using global carbon budget estimates, ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple global vegetation models, we report a recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2, and a decline in the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remain in the atmosphere, despite increasing anthropogenic emissions. We also attribute the observed decline tomore » increases in the terrestrial sink during the past decade, associated with the effects of rising atmospheric CO 2 on vegetation and the slowdown in the rate of warming on global respiration. Furthermore, the pause in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate provides further evidence of the roles of CO 2 fertilization and warming-induced respiration, and highlights the need to protect both existing carbon stocks and regions, where the sink is growing rapidly.« less

Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keenan, Trevor F.; Prentice, I. Colin; Canadell, Josep G.

Terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle and offset a large fraction of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. The terrestrial carbon sink is increasing, yet the mechanisms responsible for its enhancement, and implications for the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2, remain unclear. Here using global carbon budget estimates, ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple global vegetation models, we report a recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2, and a decline in the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remain in the atmosphere, despite increasing anthropogenic emissions. We also attribute the observed decline tomore » increases in the terrestrial sink during the past decade, associated with the effects of rising atmospheric CO 2 on vegetation and the slowdown in the rate of warming on global respiration. Furthermore, the pause in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate provides further evidence of the roles of CO 2 fertilization and warming-induced respiration, and highlights the need to protect both existing carbon stocks and regions, where the sink is growing rapidly.« less

Examining the last few decades of global hydroclimate for evidence of anthropogenic change amidst natural variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seager, R.; Naik, N.; Ting, M.; Kushnir, Y.; Kelley, C. P.

2011-12-01

Climate models robustly predict that the deep tropics and mid-latitude-to-subpolar regions will moisten, and the subtropical dry zones both dry and expand, as a consequence of global warming driven by rising greenhouse gases. The models also predict that this transition to a more extreme climatological mean global hydroclimate should already be underway. Given the importance of these predictions it is an imperative that the climate science community assess whether there is evidence within the observational record that they are correct. This task is made difficult by the tremendous natural variability of the hydrological cycle on seasonal to multidecadal timescales. Here we will use instrumental observations, reanalyses, sea surface temperature forced atmosphere models and coupled model simulations, and a variety of methodologies, to attempt to separate global radiatively-forced hydroclimate change from ongoing natural variability. The results will be applied to explain trends and recent events in key regions such as Mexico, the United States and the Mediterranean. It is concluded that the signal of anthropogenic change is small compared to the amplitude of natural variability but that it is a discernible contributor. Globally the evidence reveals that radiatively-forced hydroclimate change is occurring with an amplitude and spatial pattern largely consistent with the predictions by IPCC AR4 models of hydroclimate change to date. However it will also be shown that the radiatively-forced component does not in and of itself provide a useful prediction of near term hydroclimate change because for many regions the amplitude of natural decadal variability is as large or larger. Useful predictions need to account for how natural variability may evolve as well as forced change.

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition ameliorates the decline in tree growth caused by a drier climate.

PubMed

Ibáñez, Inés; Zak, Donald R; Burton, Andrew J; Pregitzer, Kurt S

2018-02-01

Most forest ecosystems are simultaneously affected by concurrent global change drivers. However, when assessing these effects, studies have mainly focused on the responses to single factors and have rarely evaluated the joined effects of the multiple aspects of environmental change. Here, we analyzed the combined effects of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic conditions on the radial growth of Acer saccharum, a dominant tree species in eastern North American forests. We capitalized on a long-term N deposition study, replicated along a latitudinal gradient, that has been taking place for more than 20 yr. We analyzed tree radial growth as a function of anthropogenic N deposition (ambient and experimental addition) and of summer temperature and soil water conditions. Our results reveal that experimental N deposition enhances radial growth of this species, an effect that was accentuated as temperature increased and soil water became more limiting. The spatial and temporal extent of our data also allowed us to assert that the positive effects of growing under the experimental N deposition are likely due to changes in the physiological performance of this species, and not due to the positive correlation between soil N and soil water holding capacity, as has been previously speculated in other studies. Our simulations of tree growth under forecasted climate scenarios specific for this region also revealed that although anthropogenic N deposition may enhance tree growth under a large array of environmental conditions, it will not mitigate the expected effects of growing under the considerably drier conditions characteristic of our most extreme climatic scenario. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Development of a national anthropogenic heating database with an extrapolation for international cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sailor, David J.; Georgescu, Matei; Milne, Jeffrey M.; Hart, Melissa A.

2015-10-01

Given increasing utility of numerical models to examine urban impacts on meteorology and climate, there exists an urgent need for accurate representation of seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating data, an important component of the urban energy budget for cities across the world. Incorporation of anthropogenic heating data as inputs to existing climate modeling systems has direct societal implications ranging from improved prediction of energy demand to health assessment, but such data are lacking for most cities. To address this deficiency we have applied a standardized procedure to develop a national database of seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating profiles for 61 of the largest cities in the United Stated (U.S.). Recognizing the importance of spatial scale, the anthropogenic heating database developed includes the city scale and the accompanying greater metropolitan area. Our analysis reveals that a single profile function can adequately represent anthropogenic heating during summer but two profile functions are required in winter, one for warm climate cities and another for cold climate cities. On average, although anthropogenic heating is 40% larger in winter than summer, the electricity sector contribution peaks during summer and is smallest in winter. Because such data are similarly required for international cities where urban climate assessments are also ongoing, we have made a simple adjustment accounting for different international energy consumption rates relative to the U.S. to generate seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating profiles for a range of global cities. The methodological approach presented here is flexible and straightforwardly applicable to cities not modeled because of presently unavailable data. Because of the anticipated increase in global urban populations for many decades to come, characterizing this fundamental aspect of the urban environment - anthropogenic heating - is an essential

Evolution of anthropogenic emissions at the global and regional scale during the past three decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granier, C.; Bessagnet, B. B.; Bond, T. C.; D'Angiola, A.; Denier van der Gon, H.; Frost, G. J.; Heil, A.; Kaiser, J.; Kinne, S. A.; Klimont, Z.; Kloster, S.; Lamarque, J.; Liousse, C.; Masui, T.; Meleux, F.; Mieville, A.; Ohara, T.; Raut, J.; Riahi, K.; Schultz, M. G.; Smith, S.; Thomson, A. M.; van Aardenne, J.; van der Werf, G.; van Vuuren, D.

2010-12-01

The knowledge of the distributions of surface emissions of gases and aerosols is essential for an accurate modeling and analysis of the distribution and evolution of the concentration of gaseous and particulate chemical species. The quantification of surface fluxes by source of origin is furthermore central to the assessment of effects and the development of control measures. Over the past few years, different ranges of emission fluxes have been proposed by several studies, which have provided emissions at different spatial and temporal scales. We have compared the emissions of several chemical compounds, i.e. carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon, as provided by global and regional emissions inventories in different regions of the world for the past thirty years. The presentation will focus on the United States, Europe and China. Significant differences between the datasets providing emissions in these regions have been identified, reaching for example 60% and 35% for anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides in both regions, respectively. We will assess the current uncertainties on surface emissions and their recent trends. This analysis is often hindered because of differences in base years and in species considered in the different datasets. Current work aiming at compiling comparable metrics for such species for the analysis of regional and global emission datasets will be discussed.

Effects of trans-Eurasian transport of anthropogenic pollutants on surface ozone concentrations over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Li, X.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Emmons, L. K.; Horowitz, L. W.; Guo, Y.; Tao, S.

2015-12-01

Due to a lack of industrialization in Western China, surface air there was, until recently, believed to be relatively unpolluted. However, recent measurements and modeling studies have found high levels of ozone (O3) there. Based on the state-of-the-science global chemical transport model MOZART-4, we identify the origin, pathway, and mechanism of trans-Eurasian transport of air pollutants to Western China in 2000. MOZART-4 generally simulates well the observed surface O3 over inland areas of China. Simulations find surface ozone concentrations over Western China on average to be about 10 ppbv higher than Eastern China. Using sensitivity studies as well as a fully-tagged approach, we find that anthropogenic emissions from all Eurasian regions except China contribute 10-15 ppbv surface O3 over Western China, superimposed upon a 35-40 ppbv natural background. Transport from European anthropogenic sources to Northwestern China results in 2-6 ppbv O3 enhancements in spring and summer. Indian anthropogenic sources strongly influence O3 over the Tibetan Plateau during the summer monsoon. Transport of O3 originating from emissions in the Middle East occasionally reach Western China and increase surface ozone there by about 1-4 ppbv. These influences are of similar magnitude as trans-Pacific and transatlantic transport of O3 and its precursors, indicating the significance of trans-Eurasian ozone transport in hemispheric transport of air pollution. Our study further indicates that mitigation of anthropogenic emissions from Europe, the Indian subcontinent, and the Middle East could benefit public health and agricultural productivity in Western China.

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed Central

Salzmann, Marc

2016-01-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K−1 decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge. PMID:27386558

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

Massive production of heavy metals in the Ganga (Hooghly) River estuary, India: Global importance of solute-particle interaction and enhanced metal fluxes to the oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Saumik; Dalai, Tarun K.

2018-05-01

The Ganga River System is a major contributor to the global sediment and water discharge to the oceans. The estuary of Ganga (Hooghly) River in India is under increasing influence of anthropogenic contributions via discharge of the industrial and urban effluents. Here we document, based on the investigation of water and suspended sediment samples collected during six periods over two years, that there is extensive production of heavy metals (Co, Ni and Cu) in the estuary such that the annual dissolved fluxes of metals from the Hooghly River are enhanced by up to 230-1770%. Furthermore, the estuarine dissolved metal fluxes, when normalized with water fluxes, are the highest among estuaries of the major rivers in the world. Our simultaneous data on the dissolved, suspended particulate and exchangeable phases allow us to identify the ion-exchange process (coupled adsorption and desorption) as the dominant contributor to the generation of heavy metals in the middle and lower estuary where the estimated anthropogenic contribution is negligible. The estimated contributions from the groundwater are also insufficient to explain the measured metal concentrations in the estuary. A strong positive correlation that is observed between the dissolved heavy metal fluxes and the suspended particulate matter (SPM) fluxes, after normalizing them with the water fluxes, for estuaries of the major global rivers imply that the solute-particle interaction is a globally significant process in the estuarine production of metals. Based on this correlation that is observed for major estuaries around the world, we demonstrate that the South Asian Rivers which supply only ∼9% of the global river water discharge but carry elevated SPM load, contribute a far more significant proportion (∼40 ± 2% Ni and 15 ± 1% Cu) to the global supply of the dissolved metals from the rivers.

Hemispheric aerosol vertical profiles: anthropogenic impacts on optical depth and cloud nuclei.

PubMed

Clarke, Antony; Kapustin, Vladimir

2010-09-17

Understanding the effect of anthropogenic combustion upon aerosol optical depth (AOD), clouds, and their radiative forcing requires regionally representative aerosol profiles. In this work, we examine more than 1000 vertical profiles from 11 major airborne campaigns in the Pacific hemisphere and confirm that regional enhancements in aerosol light scattering, mass, and number are associated with carbon monoxide from combustion and can exceed values in unperturbed regions by more than one order of magnitude. Related regional increases in a proxy for cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and AOD imply that direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects are coupled issues linked globally to aged combustion. These profiles constrain the influence of combustion on regional AOD and CCN suitable for challenging climate model performance and informing satellite retrievals.

Going Global: Utilizing Instructional Geocaching to Enhance Students' Global Competency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Szolosi, Andrew

2012-01-01

Within contemporary society, technology has taken on an integral role in the way we come to know and understand the world. In recognition of that reality, an increasing number of educators have begun to utilize an emerging technology resource, GPS devices, and a GPS-based activity, geocaching, to help enhance students' global competency. The…

Continuing global monitoring of anthropogenic and volcanic SO2 sources from Aura/OMI to SNPP/OMPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Krotkov, N. A.; Carn, S. A.; Joiner, J.; McLinden, C. A.; Fioletov, V.

2017-12-01

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is an important trace gas that has significant impacts on air quality, the climate, and stratospheric ozone. It is predominantly emitted from anthropogenic sources such as coal-fired power plants and smelters, but also has sizable sources from volcanic activity. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura spacecraft has been providing global observations of both anthropogenic and volcanic SO2 since its launch in 2004. The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) nadir mapper, launched aboard the NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite in 2011, will continue the 13+ year OMI SO2 time series. However, it is a significant challenge to build a coherent data record between OMI and OMPS, as the SO2 signal is relatively weak and its retrieval is subject to a number of interferences such as ozone absorption. Additionally, the two instruments also have different spectral and spatial resolutions that result in different sensitivities to SO2. Even a relatively small error in retrievals, due to either algorithmic or instrumental factors, may lead to a large inter-instrument bias in SO2. In this presentation, we report on our latest effort and progress in developing EOS continuity SNPP/OMPS SO2 products. We have applied a consistent retrieval technique based on principal component analysis (PCA) of measured radiance data to both OMI and OMPS. We show that the PCA retrieval technique, which extracts principal components (PCs) from measured radiances and applies these PCs in spectral fitting to minimize the effects of various interfering processes, is capable of producing highly consistent OMI and OMPS SO2 data for both anthropogenic sources and large volcanic eruptions. To gain a quantitative understanding of the two instruments' capabilities of monitoring SO2 sources, we have also applied a new emission estimation technique that combines satellite SO2 and wind information to both of them

Simulation of in-stream water quality on global scale under changing climate and anthropogenic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voss, Anja; Bärlund, Ilona; Punzet, Manuel; Williams, Richard; Teichert, Ellen; Malve, Olli; Voß, Frank

2010-05-01

Although catchment scale modelling of water and solute transport and transformations is a widely used technique to study pollution pathways and effects of natural changes, policies and mitigation measures there are only a few examples of global water quality modelling. This work will provide a description of the new continental-scale model of water quality WorldQual and the analysis of model simulations under changed climate and anthropogenic conditions with respect to changes in diffuse and point loading as well as surface water quality. BOD is used as an indicator of the level of organic pollution and its oxygen-depleting potential, and for the overall health of aquatic ecosystems. The first application of this new water quality model is to river systems of Europe. The model itself is being developed as part of the EU-funded SCENES Project which has the principal goal of developing new scenarios of the future of freshwater resources in Europe. The aim of the model is to determine chemical fluxes in different pathways combining analysis of water quantity with water quality. Simple equations, consistent with the availability of data on the continental scale, are used to simulate the response of in-stream BOD concentrations to diffuse and anthropogenic point loadings as well as flow dilution. Point sources are divided into manufacturing, domestic and urban loadings, whereas diffuse loadings come from scattered settlements, agricultural input (for instance livestock farming), and also from natural background sources. The model is tested against measured longitudinal gradients and time series data at specific river locations with different loading characteristics like the Thames that is driven by domestic loading and Ebro with relative high share of diffuse loading. With scenario studies the influence of climate and anthropogenic changes on European water resources shall be investigated with the following questions: 1. What percentage of river systems will have

Enhancing the Global Carbon Sink: A Key Mitigation Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torn, M. S.

2016-12-01

Earth's terrestrial ecosystems absorb about one-third of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions from the atmosphere each year, greatly reducing the climate forcing those emissions would otherwise cause. This puts the size of the terrestrial carbon sink on par with the most aggressive climate mitigation measures proposed. Moreover, the land sink has been keeping pace with rising emissions and has roughly doubled over the past 40 years. But there is a fundamental lack of understanding of why the sink has been increasing and what its future trajectory could be. In developing climate mitigation strategies, governments have a very limited scientific basis for projecting the contributions of their domestic sinks, and yet at least 117 of the 160 COP21 signatories stated they will use the land sink in their Nationally Defined Contribution (NDC). Given its potentially critical role in reducing net emissions and the importance of UNFCCC land sinks in future mitigation scenarios, a first-principles understanding of the dynamics of the land sink is needed. For expansion of the sink, new approaches and ecologically-sound technologies are needed. Carefully conceived terrestrial carbon sequestration could have multiple environmental benefits, but a massive expansion of land carbon sinks using conventional approaches could place excessive demands on the world's land, water, and fertilizer nutrients. Meanwhile, rapid climatic change threatens to undermine or reverse the sink in many ecosystems. We need approaches to protect the large sinks that are currently assumed useful for climate mitigation. Thus we highlight the need for a new research agenda aimed at predicting, protecting, and enhancing the global carbon sink. Key aspects of this agenda include building a predictive capability founded on observations, theory and models, and developing ecological approaches and technologies that are sustainable and scalable, and potentially provide co-benefits such as healthier soils, more

Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Anthropogenic and Natural Factors Influencing Groundwater Quality Based on Source Apportionment

PubMed Central

Guo, Xueru; Zuo, Rui; Meng, Li; Wang, Jinsheng; Teng, Yanguo; Liu, Xin; Chen, Minhua

2018-01-01

Globally, groundwater resources are being deteriorated by rapid social development. Thus, there is an urgent need to assess the combined impacts of natural and enhanced anthropogenic sources on groundwater chemistry. The aim of this study was to identify seasonal characteristics and spatial variations in anthropogenic and natural effects, to improve the understanding of major hydrogeochemical processes based on source apportionment. 34 groundwater points located in a riverside groundwater resource area in northeast China were sampled during the wet and dry seasons in 2015. Using principal component analysis and factor analysis, 4 principal components (PCs) were extracted from 16 groundwater parameters. Three of the PCs were water-rock interaction (PC1), geogenic Fe and Mn (PC2), and agricultural pollution (PC3). A remarkable difference (PC4) was organic pollution originating from negative anthropogenic effects during the wet season, and geogenic F enrichment during the dry season. Groundwater exploitation resulted in dramatic depression cone with higher hydraulic gradient around the water source area. It not only intensified dissolution of calcite, dolomite, gypsum, Fe, Mn and fluorine minerals, but also induced more surface water recharge for the water source area. The spatial distribution of the PCs also suggested the center of the study area was extremely vulnerable to contamination by Fe, Mn, COD, and F−. PMID:29415516

Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions: Unknowns and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.; Idso, S.; Kondratyev, K. Ya.; Posmentier, E. S.

2001-12-01

A likelihood of disastrous global environmental consequences has been surmised as a result of projected increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These estimates are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy despite recent, substantial strides in knowledge. Because the expected anthropogenic climate forcings are relatively small compared to other background and forcing factors (internal and external), the credibility of the modeled global and regional responses rests on the validity of the models. We focus on this important question of climate model validation. Specifically, we review common deficiencies in general circulation model calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. These deficiencies arise from complex problems associated with parameterization of multiply-interacting climate components, forcings and feedbacks, involving especially clouds and oceans. We also review examples of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, including the relatively well-observed latest 20 years, is not possible. We further conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future climate projections from incomplete or unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic value of models. Such uncritical application of climate models has led to the commonly-held but erroneous impression that modeling has proven or substantiated the hypothesis that CO2 added to the air has caused or will cause significant global warming. An assessment of the positive skills of GCMs and their use in suggesting a discernible human influence on global climate can be found in the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations

Human threats to sandy beaches: A meta-analysis of ghost crabs illustrates global anthropogenic impacts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlacher, Thomas A.; Lucrezi, Serena; Connolly, Rod M.; Peterson, Charles H.; Gilby, Ben L.; Maslo, Brooke; Olds, Andrew D.; Walker, Simon J.; Leon, Javier X.; Huijbers, Chantal M.; Weston, Michael A.; Turra, Alexander; Hyndes, Glenn A.; Holt, Rebecca A.; Schoeman, David S.

2016-02-01

Beach and coastal dune systems are increasingly subjected to a broad range of anthropogenic pressures that on many shorelines require significant conservation and mitigation interventions. But these interventions require reliable data on the severity and frequency of adverse ecological impacts. Such evidence is often obtained by measuring the response of 'indicator species'. Ghost crabs are the largest invertebrates inhabiting tropical and subtropical sandy shores and are frequently used to assess human impacts on ocean beaches. Here we present the first global meta-analysis of these impacts, and analyse the design properties and metrics of studies using ghost-crabs in their assessment. This was complemented by a gap analysis to identify thematic areas of anthropogenic pressures on sandy beach ecosystems that are under-represented in the published literature. Our meta-analysis demonstrates a broad geographic reach, encompassing studies on shores of the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, as well as the South China Sea. It also reveals what are, arguably, two major limitations: i) the near-universal use of proxies (i.e. burrow counts to estimate abundance) at the cost of directly measuring biological traits and bio-markers in the organism itself; and ii) descriptive or correlative study designs that rarely extend beyond a simple 'compare and contrast approach', and hence fail to identify the mechanistic cause(s) of observed contrasts. Evidence for a historically narrow range of assessed pressures (i.e., chiefly urbanisation, vehicles, beach nourishment, and recreation) is juxtaposed with rich opportunities for the broader integration of ghost crabs as a model taxon in studies of disturbance and impact assessments on ocean beaches. Tangible advances will most likely occur where ghost crabs provide foci for experiments that test specific hypotheses associated with effects of chemical, light and acoustic pollution, as well as the consequences of climate change (e

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

2015-11-01

increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions and changes in land use. The model predicts an average increase of 1-6 ppb in DM8O due to projected increase in global emissions of ozone precursors. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM2.5 levels between 4 and 10 μg m-3 in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and South regions are mostly a result of increase in primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Changes in boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall simulated PM2.5 mass concentrations.

Anthropogenic heat fluxes over Moscow agglomeration and other Russian and world cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belova, Iya; Ginzburg, Alexander

2010-05-01

Urbanization, particularly with respect to its sustainability, remains to be a great challenge in all regions of the world. Urbanization has an influence on soils, hydrology, and climate, these changes have effect on global climate, pollution, increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere and human health. Thus anthropogenic heat flux is an important factor for estimation of development of global climate. The simple formula for anthropogenic heat fluxes (AHF) was proposed in the EGU General Assembly 2008 presentation [1] AHF = k × PD × EC, were PD is urban population density and EC is total energy consumption per capita. It was estimated that two of the world megacities - Seoul and Moscow - have the highest AHF values - 83 and 56 W/m2 correspondently. In presented paper it was studied the reasons of such high anthropogenic heat fluxes within Moscow region as well as AHF over the major Russian cities. It was shown that main reason of this circumstance is the administrative divisions in Moscow region. Moscow is ringed by Moscow circle motor road. Accordingly the city has sharply defined boundaries and densely populated residential suburbs are cut off and don't included in Moscow city administrative area. It was constructed the special graph to illuminate why Moscow city has such a high anthropogenic heat factor and how much Moscow agglomeration AHF could be if consider not only Moscow city itself but also the nearest suburb towns. Using the data from World Bank [2] and Russian governmental statistic agency [3] anthropogenic heat fluxes for Russian cities with population more than 500 000 were estimated. Energy consumption data for different Russian regions were calculated by special routine using in the Web-atlas [4]. This research is supported by RAS Fundamental Research Project 'Influence of anthropogenic heat fluxes and aerosol pollution on heat balance and climate of urbanized areas'. Other results of this project is presented in paper [5

Trends and Variability of Global Fire Emissions Due To Historical Anthropogenic Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Daniel S.; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Rabin, Sam

2018-01-01

Globally, fires are a major source of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, occurring on a seasonal cycle and with substantial interannual variability. To understand past trends and variability in sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon, we need quantitative estimates of global fire distributions. Here we introduce an updated version of the Fire Including Natural and Agricultural Lands model, version 2 (FINAL.2), modified to include multiday burning and enhanced fire spread rate in forest crowns. We demonstrate that the improved model reproduces the interannual variability and spatial distribution of fire emissions reported in present-day remotely sensed inventories. We use FINAL.2 to simulate historical (post-1700) fires and attribute past fire trends and variability to individual drivers: land use and land cover change, population growth, and lightning variability. Global fire emissions of carbon increase by about 10% between 1700 and 1900, reaching a maximum of 3.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1910s, followed by a decrease to about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010. The decrease in emissions from the 1910s to the present day is driven mainly by land use change, with a smaller contribution from increased fire suppression due to increased human population and is largest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Interannual variability of global fire emissions is similar in the present day as in the early historical period, but present-day wildfires would be more variable in the absence of land use change.

The anthropogenic influence on heat and humidity in the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inda Diaz, H. A.; O'Brien, T. A.; Stone, D. A.

2016-12-01

Heatwaves, and extreme temperatures in general, have a wide range of negative impacts on society, and particularly on human health. In addition to temperature, humidity plays a key role in regulating human body temperature, with higher humidities tending to reduce the effectiveness of perspiration. There is recent theoretical and observational evidence that co-occurring extreme heat and humidity can potentially have a much more dramatic impact on human health than either extreme in isolation. There is an abundance of observational evidence indicating that anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have contributed to an increase in the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes on a global scale. However, aside from purely thermodynamically-driven increases in near-surface humidity, there is a paucity of similar evidence for anthropogenic impacts on humidity. Thermodynamic scaling would suggest that air masses originating from the ocean would be associated with higher specific humidity in a warmer world, and transpiration from irrigated crops could further increase humidity in warm air masses. In order to explore the role of anthropogenic GHG forcing on the co-occurrence of temperature and humidity extremes in the Midwestern United States (US), we evaluate a large ensemble of global climate model simulations with and without anthropogenic GHG forcing. In particular, we examine differences between the probability distributions of near-surface temperature, humidity, wet-bulb temperature, and the joint distribution of temperature and humidity in this ensemble. Finally, we explore augmenting this experimental framework with additional simulations to explore the role of anthropogenic changes in the land surface, and in particular irrigated crops, on co-occurring extreme heat and humidity.

Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew D.

2017-11-01

Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record breaking in a given time series is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.

Benchmarking Anthropogenic Heavy Metals Emissions: Australian and Global Urban Environmental Health Risk Based Indicators of Sustainability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dejkovski, Nick

2016-01-01

In Australia, the impacts of urbanisation and human activity are evident in increased waste generation and the emissions of metals into the air, land or water. Metals that have accumulated in urban soils almost exclusively anthropogenically can persist for long periods in the environment. Anthropogenic waste emissions containing heavy metals are a…

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle

2015-03-31

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼ 100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm-dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the "exceptional" 2012-2014 drought in California.

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle

2015-01-01

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California. PMID:25733875

A 50-year record of platinum, iridium, and rhodium in Antarctic snow: volcanic and anthropogenic sources.

PubMed

Soyol-Erdene, Tseren-Ochir; Huh, Youngsook; Hong, Sungmin; Hur, Soon Do

2011-07-15

Antarctic snow preserves an atmospheric archive that enables the study of global atmospheric changes and anthropogenic disturbances from the past. We report atmospheric deposition rates of platinum group elements (PGEs) in Antarctica during the last ∼ 50 years based on determinations of Pt, Ir, and Rh in snow samples collected from Queen Maud Land, East Antarctica to evaluate changes in the global atmospheric budget of these noble metals. The 50-year average PGE concentrations in Antarctic snow were 17 fg g(-1) (4.7-76 fg g(-1)) for Pt, 0.12 fg g(-1) (<0.05-0.34 fg g(-1)) for Ir, and 0.71 fg g(-1) (0.12-8.8 fg g(-1)) for Rh. The concentration peaks for Pt, Ir, and Rh were observed at depths corresponding to volcanic eruption periods, indicating that PGEs can be used as a good tracer of volcanic activity in the past. A significant increase in concentrations and crustal enrichment factors for Pt and a slight enhancement in enrichment factors for Rh were observed after the 1980s. This suggests that there has been large-scale atmospheric pollution for Pt and probably for Rh since the 1980s, which may be attributed to the increasing emissions of these metals from anthropogenic sources such as automobile catalysts and metal production processes.

Anthropogenic and Volcanic Contributions to the Tropospheric and Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian

2011-01-01

We investigate anthropogenic and volcanic contributions to sulfate aerosol in the atmosphere through modeling and analysis of Aura data. We use a global model GOCART to simualte 502 and sulfate aerosol from 2000 to 2010 with the new anthropogenic and volcanic emission estimates to assess the origin of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere. We will compare the model results with 502 data from OMI and MLS instrument on Aura, and aerosol vertical profiles from CALIPSO. Our goal is to understand the dec ada 1 trends of observed tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols.

What We Can Say About the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahn, Ralph

2016-07-01

Although particles from natural sources dominate the globally averaged aerosol load, it is widely understood that human activity has added significantly to the atmospheric aerosol inventory in many regions. Anthropogenic contributions include pollution particles from industrial activity, transportation, cook-stoves, and other combustion sources, smoke from agricultural fires and those wildfires that result from land-management practices, soil and mineral dust mobilized in regions where overgrazing, severe tilling, or overuse of surface water resources have occurred, and biogenic particles from vegetation planted and maintained by the populance. The history of human influence is complex - in the 18th and 19th centuries agricultural burning tended to dominate the anthropogenic component in most places, whereas more recently, fossil fuel combustion leads the human contribution is many areas. However, identifying and quantifying the anthropogenic aerosol component on global scales is a challenging endeavor at present. Most estimates of the anthropogenic component come from aerosol transport models that are initialized with aerosol and precursor-gas source locations, emission strengths, and injection heights. The aerosol is then advected based on meteorological modeling, possibly modified chemically or physically, and removed by parameterized wet or dry deposition processes. Aerosol effects on clouds are also represented in some climate models, but with even greater uncertainty than the direct aerosol effects on Earth's radiation balance. Even for present conditions, aerosol source inventories are deduced from whatever constraints can be found, along with much creativity and many assumptions. Aerosol amount (i.e., aerosol optical depth) is routinely measured globally from space, but observational constraints on the anthropogenic component require some knowledge of the aerosol type as well, a much more difficult quantity to derive. As large-swath, multi-spectral, single

Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

2018-06-01

Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.

Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

2009-04-01

In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

Atmospheric mercury emissions in Australia from anthropogenic, natural and recycled sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Peter F.; Morrison, Anthony L.; Malfroy, Hugh J.; Cope, Martin; Lee, Sunhee; Hibberd, Mark L.; Meyer, C. P. (Mick); McGregor, John

2012-12-01

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has begun a process of developing a legally binding instrument to manage emissions of mercury from anthropogenic sources. The UNEP Governing Council has concluded that there is sufficient evidence of significant global adverse impacts from mercury to warrant further international action; and that national, regional and global actions should be initiated as soon as possible to identify populations at risk and to reduce human generated releases. This paper describes the development of, and presents results from, a comprehensive, spatially and temporally resolved inventory of atmospheric mercury emissions from the Australian landmass. Results indicate that the best estimate of total anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere in 2006 was 15 ± 5 tonnes. Three industrial sectors contribute substantially to Australian anthropogenic emissions: gold smelting (˜50%, essentially from a single site/operation), coal combustion in power plants (˜15%) and alumina production from bauxite (˜12%). A diverse range of other sectors contribute smaller proportions of the emitted mercury, but industrial emissions account for around 90% of total anthropogenic mercury emissions. The other sectors include other industrial sources (mining, smelting, and cement production) and the use of products containing mercury. It is difficult to determine historical trends in mercury emissions given the large uncertainties in the data. Estimates for natural and re-emitted emissions from soil, water, vegetation and fires are made using meteorological models, satellite observations of land cover and soil and vegetation type, fuel loading, fire scars and emission factors which account for the effects of temperature, insolation and other environmental variables. These natural and re-emitted sources comfortably exceed the anthropogenic emissions, and comprise 4-12 tonnes per year from vegetation, 70-210 tonnes per year from soils, and 21-63 tonnes

Representing anthropogenic gross land use change, wood harvest, and forest age dynamics in a global vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Li, Wei; McGrath, Matthew J.; Chang, Jinfeng; Peng, Shushi

2018-01-01

Land use change (LUC) is among the main anthropogenic disturbances in the global carbon cycle. Here we present the model developments in a global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2 for a more realistic representation of LUC processes. First, we included gross land use change (primarily shifting cultivation) and forest wood harvest in addition to net land use change. Second, we included sub-grid evenly aged land cohorts to represent secondary forests and to keep track of the transient stage of agricultural lands since LUC. Combination of these two features allows the simulation of shifting cultivation with a rotation length involving mainly secondary forests instead of primary ones. Furthermore, a set of decision rules regarding the land cohorts to be targeted in different LUC processes have been implemented. Idealized site-scale simulation has been performed for miombo woodlands in southern Africa assuming an annual land turnover rate of 5 % grid cell area between forest and cropland. The result shows that the model can correctly represent forest recovery and cohort aging arising from agricultural abandonment. Such a land turnover process, even though without a net change in land cover, yields carbon emissions largely due to the imbalance between the fast release from forest clearing and the slow uptake from agricultural abandonment. The simulation with sub-grid land cohorts gives lower emissions than without, mainly because the cleared secondary forests have a lower biomass carbon stock than the mature forests that are otherwise cleared when sub-grid land cohorts are not considered. Over the region of southern Africa, the model is able to account for changes in different forest cohort areas along with the historical changes in different LUC activities, including regrowth of old forests when LUC area decreases. Our developments provide possibilities to account for continental or global forest demographic change resulting from past anthropogenic and

Fate and Effects of Anthropogenic Chemicals in Mangrove Ecosystems: A Review

EPA Science Inventory

The role of anthropogenic chemicals in the decline of plant-dominated, fringe ecosystems such as mangroves is important to understand. Mangrove global coverage has been reduced approximately 50% in recent years and the presence of toxic chemicals may be a contributing factor. T...

Impact of Anthropogenic Emissions on Isoprene Photochemical Oxidation Pathways in Central Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thayer, M. P.; Dorris, M. R.; Keutsch, F. N.; Goldstein, A. H.; Guenther, A. B.; Isaacman-VanWertz, G. A.; Jimenez, J. L.; Kim, S.; Liu, Y.; Martin, S. T.; Palm, B. B.; Park, J. H.; Seco, R.; Sjostedt, S. J.; Springston, S. R.; Wernis, R. A.; Yee, L.

2016-12-01

The atmosphere over the Amazon rainforest is characterized by high concentrations of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) - most notably isoprene, which is the most abundant non-methane VOC both locally and globally. These BVOCs are photochemically oxidized, forming oVOCs, especially via reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH). This photochemical processing can result in formation of secondary pollutants such as ozone (O3) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA). During the Green Ocean Amazon campaign (GoAmazon2014/5), we obtained formaldehyde and glyoxal measurements together with OH, peroxy radicals (RO2+HO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), CO, CO2, O3, (o)VOCs, and aerosol particle size distribution. Here we present data collected during 2014 at the T3 field site, 60 km to the west of Manaus, Brazil (3°12'47.82"S, 60°35'55.32"W). The T3 GoAmazon site varies between sampling strictly pristine (biogenic) emissions and influence from anthropogenic emissions from Manaus, depending on meteorological conditions. The day-to-day oscillation provides an ideal setting for evaluating the impact of pollution from biomass burning and urban emissions on VOC oxidation and resultant secondary pollutant production. Anthropogenic plumes contain not only additional VOC precursors, but also enhanced NOx, which drastically alters the relative importance of various isoprene oxidation pathways. We utilize a 0-D photochemical box model to examine how these factors impact reactivity and pollutant formation. Due to ongoing expansion of human influence and emissions in previously-pristine areas, understanding the sensitivity of biogenic oxidation to anthropogenic influence has significant impacts for tropospheric air quality, both in the rapidly-developing Amazon Basin and other BVOC-dominated regions.

Additive negative effects of anthropogenic sedimentation and warming on the survival of coral recruits.

PubMed

Fourney, Francesca; Figueiredo, Joana

2017-09-28

Corals worldwide are facing population declines due to global climate change and local anthropogenic impacts. Global climate change effects are hard to tackle but recent studies show that some coral species can better handle climate change stress when provided with additional energy resources. The local stressor that most undermines energy acquisition is sedimentation because it impedes coral heterotrophic feeding and their ability to photosynthesize. To investigate if reducing local sedimentation will enable corals to better endure ocean warming, we quantitatively assessed the combined effects of increased temperature and sedimentation (concentration and turbidity) on the survival of coral recruits of the species, Porites astreoides. We used sediment from a reef and a boat basin to mimic natural sediment (coarse) and anthropogenic (fine) sediment (common in dredging), respectively. Natural sediment did not negatively impact coral survival, but anthropogenic sediment did. We found that the capacity of coral recruits to survive under warmer temperatures is less compromised when anthropogenic sedimentation is maintained at the lowest level (30 mg.cm -2 ). Our study suggests that a reduction of US-EPA allowable turbidity from 29 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU) above background to less than 7 NTU near coral reefs would facilitate coral recruit survival under current and higher temperatures.

Chemical oceanography. Increasing anthropogenic nitrogen in the North Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Kim, Il-Nam; Lee, Kitack; Gruber, Nicolas; Karl, David M; Bullister, John L; Yang, Simon; Kim, Tae-Wook

2014-11-28

The recent increase in anthropogenic emissions of reactive nitrogen from northeastern Asia and the subsequent enhanced deposition over the extensive regions of the North Pacific Ocean (NPO) have led to a detectable increase in the nitrate (N) concentration of the upper ocean. The rate of increase of excess N relative to phosphate (P) was found to be highest (~0.24 micromoles per kilogram per year) in the vicinity of the Asian source continent, with rates decreasing eastward across the NPO, consistent with the magnitude and distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition. This anthropogenically driven increase in the N content of the upper NPO may enhance primary production in this N-limited region, potentially leading to a long-term change of the NPO from being N-limited to P-limited. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A New Global Anthropogenic SO2 Emission Inventory for the Last Decade: A Mosaic of Satellite-derived and Bottom-up Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, F.; Joiner, J.; Choi, S.; Krotkov, N. A.; Li, C.; Fioletov, V. E.; McLinden, C. A.

2017-12-01

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite sensor have been used to detect emissions from large point sources using an innovative estimation technique. Emissions from about 500 sources have been quantified individually based on OMI observations, accounting for about a half of total reported anthropogenic SO2 emissions. We developed a new emission inventory, OMI-HTAP, by combining these OMI-based emission estimates and the conventional bottom-up inventory. OMI-HTAP includes OMI-based estimates for over 400 point sources and is gap-filled with the emission grid map of the latest available global bottom-up emission inventory (HTAP v2.2) for the rest of sources. We have evaluated the OMI-HTAP inventory by performing simulations with the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model. The GEOS-5 simulated SO2 concentrations driven by both the HTAP and the OMI-HTAP inventory were compared against in-situ and satellite measurements. Results show that the OMI-HTAP inventory improves the model agreement with observations, in particular over the US, India and the Middle East. Additionally, simulations with the OMI-HTAP inventory capture the major trends of anthropogenic SO2 emissions over the world and highlight the influence of missing sources in the bottom-up inventory.

Atmospheric mercury deposition during the last 270 years--A glacial ice core record of natural and anthropogenic sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuster, Paul F.; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Naftz, David L.; Cecil, L. DeWayne; Olson, Mark L.; DeWild, John F.; Susong, David D.; Green, Jaromy R.; Abbott, Michael L.

2002-01-01

Mercury (Hg) contamination of aquatic ecosystems and subsequent methylmercury bioaccumulation are significant environmental problems of global extent. At regional to global scales, the primary mechanism of Hg contamination is atmospheric Hg transport. Thus, a better understanding of the long-term history of atmospheric Hg cycling and quantification of the sources is critical for assessing the regional and global impact of anthropogenic Hg emissions. Ice cores collected from the Upper Fremont Glacier (UFG), Wyoming, contain a high-resolution record of total atmospheric Hg deposition (ca. 1720−1993). Total Hg in 97 ice-core samples was determined with trace-metal clean handling methods and low-level analytical procedures to reconstruct the first and most comprehensive atmospheric Hg deposition record of its kind yet available from North America. The record indicates major atmospheric releases of both natural and anthropogenic Hg from regional and global sources. Integrated over the past 270-year ice-core history, anthropogenic inputs contributed 52%, volcanic events 6%, and background sources 42%. More significantly, during the last 100 years, anthropogenic sources contributed 70% of the total Hg input. Unlike the 2−7-fold increase observed from preindustrial times (before 1840) to the mid-1980s in sediment-core records, the UFG record indicates a 20-fold increase for the same period. The sediment-core records, however, are in agreement with the last 10 years of this ice-core record, indicating declines in atmospheric Hg deposition.

Microbial DNA records historical delivery of anthropogenic mercury

PubMed Central

Poulain, Alexandre J; Aris-Brosou, Stéphane; Blais, Jules M; Brazeau, Michelle; Keller, Wendel (Bill); Paterson, Andrew M

2015-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is an anthropogenic pollutant that is toxic to wildlife and humans, but the response of remote ecosystems to globally distributed Hg is elusive. Here, we use DNA extracted from a dated sediment core to infer the response of microbes to historical Hg delivery. We observe a significant association between the mercuric reductase gene (merA) phylogeny and the timing of Hg deposition. Using relaxed molecular clock models, we show a significant increase in the scaled effective population size of the merA gene beginning ~200 years ago, coinciding with the Industrial Revolution and a coincident strong signal for positive selection acting on residues in the terminal region of the mercuric reductase. This rapid evolutionary response of microbes to changes in the delivery of anthropogenic Hg indicates that microbial genomes record ecosystem response to pollutant deposition in remote regions. PMID:26057844

Top-down model estimates, bottom-up inventories, and future projections of global natural and anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, E. A.; Kanter, D.

2013-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most abundantly emitted greenhouse gas and the largest remaining emitted ozone depleting substance. It is a product of nitrifying and denitrifying bacteria in soils, sediments and water bodies. Humans began to disrupt the N cycle in the preindustrial era as they expanded agricultural land, used fire for land clearing and management, and cultivated leguminous crops that carry out biological N fixation. This disruption accelerated after the industrial revolution, especially as the use of synthetic N fertilizers became common after 1950. Here we present findings from a new United Nations Environment Programme report, in which we constrain estimates of the anthropogenic and natural emissions of N2O and consider scenarios for future emissions. Inventory-based estimates of natural emissions from terrestrial, marine and atmospheric sources range from 10 to 12 Tg N2O-N/yr. Similar values can be derived for global N2O emissions that were predominantly natural before the industrial revolution. While there was inter-decadal variability, there was little or no consistent trend in atmospheric N2O concentrations between 1730 and 1850, allowing us to assume near steady state. Assuming an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years, the 'top-down' estimate of pre-industrial emissions of 11 Tg N2O-N/yr is consistent with the bottom-up inventories for natural emissions, although the former includes some modest pre-industrial anthropogenic effects (probably <1 Tg N2O-N/yr). Assuming that the changes in atmospheric concentrations from 1850 to the present are entirely anthropogenic, the top-down methodology yields an estimate of 5.3 Tg N2O-N/yr (range 5.2 - 5.5) net anthropogenic emissions for the period 2000-2007. Based on a review of bottom-up inventories, we estimate total net anthropogenic N2O emissions of 6.0 Tg N2O-N/yr (5.4-8.4 Tg N2O-N/yr). Estimates (and ranges) by sector (in Tg N2O-N/yr) are: agriculture 4.1 Tg (3.8-6.8); biomass burning 0.7 (0

Historical and Future Trends in Global Source-receptor Relationships of Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.; Zhang, W.; Wang, X.

2017-12-01

Growing concerns about the risk associated with increasing environmental Mercury (Hg) levels have resulted in a focus on the relationships between intercontinental emitted and accumulated Hg. We use a global biogeochemical Hg model with eight continental regions and a global ocean to evaluate the legacy impacts of historical anthropogenic releases (2000 BC to 2008 AD) on global source-receptor relationships of Hg. The legacy impacts of historical anthropogenic releases are confirmed to be significant on the source-receptor relationships according to our results. Historical anthropogenic releases from Asia account for 8% of total soil Hg in North America, which is smaller than the proportion ( 17%) from previous studies. The largest contributors to the global oceanic Hg are historical anthropogenic releases from North America (26%), Asia (16%), Europe (14%) and South America (14%). Although anthropogenic releases from Asia have exceeded North America since the 1970s, source contributions to global Hg receptors from Asia have not exceeded North America so far. Future projections indicate that if Hg emissions are not effectively controlled, Asia will exceed North America as the largest contributor to the global ocean in 2019 and this has a long-term adverse impact on the future environment. For the Arctic Ocean, historical anthropogenic release from North America contributes most to the oceanic Hg reservoir and future projections reveal that the legacy impacts of historical releases from mid-latitudes would lead to the potential of rising Hg in the Arctic Ocean in the future decades, which calls for more effective Hg controls on mid-latitude releases.

Impact of biomass burning on nutrient deposition to the global ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanakidou, Maria; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Daskalakis, Nikos; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Nenes, Athanasios

2017-04-01

Atmospheric deposition of trace constituents, both of natural and anthropogenic origin, can act as a nutrient source into the open ocean and affect marine ecosystem functioning and subsequently the exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and the global ocean. Dust is known as a major source of nutrients (Fe and P) into the atmosphere, but only a fraction of these nutrients is released in soluble form that can be assimilated by the ecosystems. Dust is also known to enhance N deposition by interacting with anthropogenic pollutants and neutralisation of part of the acidity of the atmosphere by crustal alkaline species. These nutrients have also primary anthropogenic sources including combustion emissions. The global atmospheric N [1], Fe [2] and P [3] cycles have been parameterized in the global 3-D chemical transport model TM4-ECPL, accounting for inorganic and organic forms of these nutrients, for all natural and anthropogenic sources of these nutrients including biomass burning, as well as for the link between the soluble forms of Fe and P atmospheric deposition and atmospheric acidity. The impact of atmospheric acidity on nutrient solubility has been parameterised based on experimental findings and the model results have been evaluated by extensive comparison with available observations. In the present study we isolate the significant impact of biomass burning emissions on these nutrients deposition by comparing global simulations that consider or neglect biomass burning emissions. The investigated impact integrates changes in the emissions of the nutrients as well as in atmospheric oxidants and acidity and thus in atmospheric processing and secondary sources of these nutrients. The results are presented and thoroughly discussed. References [1] Kanakidou M, S. Myriokefalitakis, N. Daskalakis, G. Fanourgakis, A. Nenes, A. Baker, K. Tsigaridis, N. Mihalopoulos, Past, Present and Future Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (JAS-D-15

Enhancing atmospheric mercury research in China to improve the current understanding of the global mercury cycle: the need for urgent and closely coordinated efforts.

PubMed

Ci, Zhijia; Zhang, Xiaoshan; Wang, Zhangwei

2012-06-05

The current understanding of the global mercury (Hg) cycle remains uncertain because Hg behavior in the environment is very complicated. The special property of Hg causes the atmosphere to be the most important medium for worldwide dispersion and transformation. The source and fate of atmospheric Hg and its interaction with the surface environment are the essential topics in the global Hg cycle. Recent declining measurement trends of Hg in the atmosphere are in apparent conflict with the increasing trends in global anthropogenic Hg emissions. As the single largest country contributor of anthropogenic Hg emission, China's role in the global Hg cycle will become more and more important in the context of the decreasing man-made Hg emission from developed regions. However, much less Hg information in China is available. As a global pollutant which undergoes long-range transport and is persistence in the environment, increasing Hg knowledge in China could not only promote the Hg regulation in this country but also improve the understanding of the fundamental of the global Hg cycle and further push the abatement of this toxin on a global scale. Then the atmospheric Hg research in China may be a breakthrough for improving the current understanding of the global Hg cycle. However, due to the complex behavior of Hg in the atmosphere, a deeper understanding of the atmospheric Hg cycle in China needs greater cooperation across fields.

Why Popper can't resolve the debate over global warming: Problems with the uses of philosophy of science in the media and public framing of the science of global warming.

PubMed

Mercer, David

2018-02-01

A notable feature in the public framing of debates involving the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming are appeals to uncritical 'positivist' images of the ideal scientific method. Versions of Sir Karl Popper's philosophy of falsification appear most frequently, featuring in many Web sites and broader media. This use of pop philosophy of science forms part of strategies used by critics, mainly from conservative political backgrounds, to manufacture doubt, by setting unrealistic standards for sound science, in the veracity of science of Anthropogenic Global Warming. It will be shown, nevertheless, that prominent supporters of Anthropogenic Global Warming science also often use similar references to Popper to support their claims. It will also be suggested that this pattern reflects longer traditions of the use of Popperian philosophy of science in controversial settings, particularly in the United States, where appeals to the authority of science to legitimize policy have been most common. It will be concluded that studies of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming debate would benefit from taking greater interest in questions raised by un-reflexive and politically expedient public understanding(s) of the philosophy of science of both critics and supporters of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Han-Li; Marsh, Daniel R.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Qian, Liying; Vitt, Francis M.

2018-02-01

We simulated anthropogenic global change through the entire atmosphere, including the thermosphere and ionosphere, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended. The basic result was that even as the lower atmosphere gradually warms, the upper atmosphere rapidly cools. The simulations employed constant low solar activity conditions, to remove the effects of variable solar and geomagnetic activity. Global mean annual mean temperature increased at a rate of +0.2 K/decade at the surface and +0.4 K/decade in the upper troposphere but decreased by about -1 K/decade in the stratosphere-mesosphere and -2.8 K/decade in the thermosphere. Near the mesopause, temperature decreases were small compared to the interannual variation, so trends in that region are uncertain. Results were similar to previous modeling confined to specific atmospheric levels and compared favorably with available measurements. These simulations demonstrate the ability of a single comprehensive numerical model to characterize global change throughout the atmosphere.

What Is an Ideal Critical Thinker Expected to Conclude about Anthropogenic Global Warming?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guzzo, Guilherme Brambatti; Dall'Alba, Gabriel

2017-01-01

Critical thinking involves the ability to properly assess statements and actions, and it also requires a permanent disposition to appropriately use cognitive skills in the evaluation of any claim. In the present paper, we discuss the characteristics of an ideal critical thinker, and apply them to a contemporary problem, namely anthropogenic global…

Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types.

PubMed

Acácio, Vanda; Dias, Filipe S; Catry, Filipe X; Rocha, Marta; Moreira, Francisco

2017-03-01

The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species-specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long-term (1966-2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the

Historical and future trends in global source-receptor relationships of mercury.

PubMed

Chen, Long; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Yanxu; Tong, Yindong; Liu, Maodian; Wang, Huanhuan; Xie, Han; Wang, Xuejun

2018-01-01

Growing concern about the risk associated with increasing environmental mercury (Hg) concentrations has resulted in a focus on the relationships between intercontinental emitted and accumulated Hg. We use a global biogeochemical Hg model with 8 continental regions and a global ocean to evaluate the legacy impacts of historical anthropogenic releases (2000BCE to 2008AD) on global source-receptor relationships of Hg. Legacy impacts of historical anthropogenic releases are confirmed to be significant on the source-receptor relationships according to our results. Historical anthropogenic releases from Asia account for 8% of total soil Hg in North America, which is smaller than the proportion (~17%) from previous studies. The largest contributors to the global oceanic Hg are historical anthropogenic releases from North America (26%), Asia (16%), Europe (14%) and South America (14%). Although anthropogenic releases from Asia have exceeded North America since the 1970s, source contributions to global Hg receptors from Asia have not exceeded North America so far. Future projections indicate that if Hg emissions are not effectively controlled, Asia will exceed North America as the largest contributor to the global ocean in 2019 and this has a long-term adverse impact on the future environment. For the Arctic Ocean, historical anthropogenic release from North America contributes most to the oceanic Hg reservoir and future projections reveal that the legacy impacts of historical releases from mid-latitudes would lead to the potential of rising Hg in the Arctic Ocean in the future decades, which calls for more effective Hg controls on mid-latitude releases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise: the role of complex colored noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Müller, Alfred; Zorita, Eduardo; Jensen, Jürgen

2015-04-01

While there is scientific consensus that global mean sea level (MSL) is rising since the late 19th century, it remains unclear how much of this rise is due to natural variability or anthropogenic forcing. Uncovering the anthropogenic contribution requires profound knowledge about the persistence of natural MSL variations. This is challenging, since observational time series represent the superposition of various processes with different spectral properties. Here we statistically estimate the upper bounds of naturally forced centennial MSL trends on the basis of two separate components: a slowly varying volumetric (mass and density changes) and a more rapidly changing atmospheric component. Resting on a combination of spectral analyses of tide gauge records, ocean reanalysis data and numerical Monte-Carlo experiments, we find that in records where transient atmospheric processes dominate, the persistence of natural volumetric changes is underestimated. If each component is assessed separately, natural centennial trends are locally up to ~0.5 mm/yr larger than in case of an integrated assessment. This implies that external trends in MSL rise related to anthropogenic forcing might be generally overestimated. By applying our approach to the outputs of a centennial ocean reanalysis (SODA), we estimate maximum natural trends in the order of 1 mm/yr for the global average. This value is larger than previous estimates, but consistent with recent paleo evidence from periods in which the anthropogenic contribution was absent. Comparing our estimate to the observed 20th century MSL rise of 1.7 mm/yr suggests a minimum external contribution of at least 0.7 mm/yr. We conclude that an accurate detection of anthropogenic footprints in MSL rise requires a more careful assessment of the persistence of intrinsic natural variability.

Global change: Geographical approaches (A Review)*

PubMed Central

Kotlyakov, V. M.; Mather, J. R.; Sdasyuk, G. V.; White, G. F.

1988-01-01

The International Geosphere Biosphere Program sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions is directing attention to geophysical and biological change as influenced by human modifications in global energy and mass exchanges. Geographers in the Soviet Union and the United States have joined in critical appraisal of their experience in studying environmental change. This initial report is on some promising approaches, such as the reconstruction of earlier landscape processes, modeling of the dynamics of present-day landscapes, analysis of causes and consequences of anthropogenic changes in specified regions, appraisal of social response to change, and enhanced geographic information systems supported by detailed site studies. PMID:16593971

Forecasting the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on polar bears

Treesearch

Todd C. Atwood; Bruce G. Marcot; David C. Douglas; Steven C. Amstrup; Karyn D. Rode; George M. Durner; Jeffrey F. Bromaghin

2016-01-01

Effective conservation planning requires understanding and ranking threats to wildlife populations. We developed a Bayesian network model to evaluate the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors, and their mitigation, on the persistence of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Overall sea ice conditions, affected by rising global...

Identifying anthropogenic anomalies in air, surface and groundwater temperatures in Germany.

PubMed

Benz, Susanne A; Bayer, Peter; Blum, Philipp

2017-04-15

Human activity directly influences ambient air, surface and groundwater temperatures. The most prominent phenomenon is the urban heat island effect, which has been investigated particularly in large and densely populated cities. This study explores the anthropogenic impact on the thermal regime not only in selected urban areas, but on a countrywide scale for mean annual temperature datasets in Germany in three different compartments: measured surface air temperature, measured groundwater temperature, and satellite-derived land surface temperature. Taking nighttime lights as an indicator of rural areas, the anthropogenic heat intensity is introduced. It is applicable to each data set and provides the difference between measured local temperature and median rural background temperature. This concept is analogous to the well-established urban heat island intensity, but applicable to each measurement point or pixel of a large, even global, study area. For all three analyzed temperature datasets, anthropogenic heat intensity grows with increasing nighttime lights and declines with increasing vegetation, whereas population density has only minor effects. While surface anthropogenic heat intensity cannot be linked to specific land cover types in the studied resolution (1km×1km) and classification system, both air and groundwater show increased heat intensities for artificial surfaces. Overall, groundwater temperature appears most vulnerable to human activity, albeit the different compartments are partially influenced through unrelated processes; unlike land surface temperature and surface air temperature, groundwater temperatures are elevated in cultivated areas as well. At the surface of Germany, the highest anthropogenic heat intensity with 4.5K is found at an open-pit lignite mine near Jülich, followed by three large cities (Munich, Düsseldorf and Nuremberg) with annual mean anthropogenic heat intensities >4K. Overall, surface anthropogenic heat intensities >0K and

Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Cai, Wenju; Yang, Yang

2018-02-01

Severe haze pollution in eastern China has caused substantial health impacts and economic loss. Conducive atmospheric conditions are important to affect occurrence of severe haze events, and circulation changes induced by future global climate warming are projected to increase the frequency of such events. However, a potential contribution of an anthropogenic influence to recent most severe haze (December 2015 and January 2013) over eastern China remains unclear. Here we show that the anthropogenic influence, which is estimated by using large ensemble runs with a climate model forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, has already increased the probability of the atmospheric patterns conducive to severe haze by at least 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively. We further confirm that simulated atmospheric circulation pattern changes induced by anthropogenic influence are driven mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that more strict reductions in pollutant emissions are needed under future anthropogenic warming.

Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Cai, Wenju

Severe haze pollution in eastern China has caused substantial health impacts and economic loss. Conducive atmospheric conditions are important to affect occurrence of severe haze events, and circulation changes induced by future global climate warming are projected to increase the frequency of such events. However, a potential contribution of an anthropogenic influence to recent most severe haze (December 2015 and January 2013) over eastern China remains unclear. Here we show that the anthropogenic influence, which is estimated by using large ensemble runs with a climate model forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, has already increased the probability of the atmosphericmore » patterns conducive to severe haze by at least 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively. We further confirm that simulated atmospheric circulation pattern changes induced by anthropogenic influence are driven mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that more strict reductions in pollutant emissions are needed under future anthropogenic warming.« less

Microbial Mechanisms Enhancing Soil C Storage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zak, Donald

2015-09-24

Human activity has globally increased the amount of nitrogen (N) entering ecosystems, which could foster higher rates of C sequestration in the N-limited forests of the Northern Hemisphere. Presently, these ecosystems are a large global sink for atmospheric CO2, the magnitude of which could be influenced by the input of human-derived N from the atmosphere. Nevertheless, empirical studies and simulation models suggest that anthropogenic N deposition could have either an important or inconsequential effect on C storage in forests of the Northern Hemisphere, a set of observations that continues to fuel scientific discourse. Although a relatively simple set of physiologicalmore » processes control the C balance of terrestrial ecosystems, we still fail to understand how these processes directly and indirectly respond to greater N availability in the environment. The uptake of anthropogenic N by N-limited forest trees and a subsequent enhancement of net primary productivity have been the primary mechanisms thought to increase ecosystem C storage in Northern Hemisphere forests. However, there are reasons to expect that anthropogenic N deposition could slow microbial activity in soil, decrease litter decay, and increase soil C storage. Fungi dominate the decay of plant detritus in forests and, under laboratory conditions, high inorganic N concentrations can repress the transcription of genes coding for enzymes which depolymerize lignin in plant detritus; this observation presents the possibility that anthropogenic N deposition could elicit a similar effect under field conditions. In our 18-yr-long field experiment, we have been able to document that simulated N deposition, at a rate expected in the near future, resulted in a significant decline in cellulolytic and lignolytic microbial activity, slowed plant litter decay, and increased soil C storage (+10%); this response is not portrayed in any biogeochemical model simulating the effect of atmospheric N deposition on

Global genetic differentiation in a cosmopolitan pest of stored beans: effects of geography, host-plant usage and anthropogenic factors.

PubMed

Tuda, Midori; Kagoshima, Kumiko; Toquenaga, Yukihiko; Arnqvist, Göran

2014-01-01

Genetic differentiation can be promoted allopatrically by geographic isolation of populations due to limited dispersal ability and diversification over time or sympatrically through, for example, host-race formation. In crop pests, the trading of crops across the world can lead to intermixing of genetically distinct pest populations. However, our understanding of the importance of allopatric and sympatric genetic differentiation in the face of anthropogenic genetic intermixing is limited. Here, we examined global sequence variation in two mitochondrial and one nuclear genes in the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus that uses different legumes as hosts. We analyzed 180 samples from 42 populations of this stored bean pest from tropical and subtropical continents and archipelagos: Africa, the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia, Oceania and South America. For the mitochondrial genes, there was weak but significant genetic differentiation across continents/archipelagos. Further, we found pronounced differentiation among subregions within continents/archipelagos both globally and within Africa but not within Asia. We suggest that multiple introductions into Asia and subsequent intermixing within Asia have generated this pattern. The isolation by distance hypothesis was supported globally (with or without continents controlled) but not when host species was restricted to cowpeas Vigna unguiculata, the ancestral host of C. maculatus. We also document significant among-host differentiation both globally and within Asia, but not within Africa. We failed to reject a scenario of a constant population size in the recent past combined with selective neutrality for the mitochondrial genes. We conclude that mitochondrial DNA differentiation is primarily due to geographic isolation within Africa and to multiple invasions by different alleles, followed by host shifts, within Asia. The weak inter-continental differentiation is most likely due to frequent inter-continental gene

Simple but accurate GCM-free approach for quantifying anthropogenic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.

2014-12-01

We are so used to analysing the climate with the help of giant computer models (GCM's) that it is easy to get the impression that they are indispensable. Yet anthropogenic warming is so large (roughly 0.9oC) that it turns out that it is straightforward to quantify it with more empirically based methodologies that can be readily understood by the layperson. The key is to use the CO2 forcing as a linear surrogate for all the anthropogenic effects from 1880 to the present (implicitly including all effects due to Greenhouse Gases, aerosols and land use changes). To a good approximation, double the economic activity, double the effects. The relationship between the forcing and global mean temperature is extremely linear as can be seen graphically and understood without fancy statistics, [Lovejoy, 2014a] (see the attached figure and http://www.physics.mcgill.ca/~gang/Lovejoy.htm). To an excellent approximation, the deviations from the linear forcing - temperature relation can be interpreted as the natural variability. For example, this direct - yet accurate approach makes it graphically obvious that the "pause" or "hiatus" in the warming since 1998 is simply a natural cooling event that has roughly offset the anthropogenic warming [Lovejoy, 2014b]. Rather than trying to prove that the warming is anthropogenic, with a little extra work (and some nonlinear geophysics theory and pre-industrial multiproxies) we can disprove the competing theory that it is natural. This approach leads to the estimate that the probability of the industrial scale warming being a giant natural fluctuation is ≈0.1%: it can be dismissed. This destroys the last climate skeptic argument - that the models are wrong and the warming is natural. It finally allows for a closure of the debate. In this talk we argue that this new, direct, simple, intuitive approach provides an indispensable tool for communicating - and convincing - the public of both the reality and the amplitude of anthropogenic warming

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Williams, A Park

2016-10-18

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Park Williams, A.

2016-10-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ˜55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

PubMed Central

Williams, A. Park

2016-01-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting. PMID:27791053

Climate Implications of the Heterogeneity of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persad, Geeta Gayatri

Short-lived anthropogenic aerosols are concentrated in regions of high human activity, where they interact with radiation and clouds, causing horizontally heterogeneous radiative forcing between polluted and unpolluted regions. Aerosols can absorb shortwave energy in the atmosphere, but deplete it at the surface, producing opposite radiative perturbations between the surface and atmosphere. This thesis investigates climate and policy implications of this horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, employing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM2.1 and AM3 models, both at a global scale and using East Asia as a regional case study. The degree of difference between spatial patterns of climate change due to heterogeneous aerosol forcing versus homogeneous greenhouse gas forcing deeply impacts the detection, attribution, and prediction of regional climate change. This dissertation addresses a gap in current understanding of these two forcings' response pattern development, using AM2.1 historical forcing simulations. The results indicate that fast atmospheric and land-surface processes alone substantially homogenize the global pattern of surface energy flux response to heterogeneous aerosol forcing. Aerosols' vertical redistribution of energy significantly impacts regional climate, but is incompletely understood. It is newly identified here, via observations and historical and idealized forcing simulations, that increased aerosol-driven atmospheric absorption may explain half of East Asia's recent surface insolation decline. Further, aerosols' surface and atmospheric effects counteract each other regionally---atmospheric heating enhances summer monsoon circulation, while surface dimming suppresses it---but absorbing aerosols' combined effects reduce summer monsoon rainfall. This thesis constitutes the first vertical decomposition of aerosols' impacts in this high-emissions region and elucidates the monsoonal response to aerosols

Global biomass burning - Atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, Joel S.

1991-01-01

On a global scale, the total biomass consumed by annual burning is about 8680 million tons of dry material; the estimated total biomass consumed by the burning of savanna grasslands, at 3690 million tons/year, exceeds all other biomass burning (BMB) components. These components encompass agricultural wastes burning, forest burning, and fuel wood burning. BMB is not restricted to the tropics, and is largely anthropogenic. Satellite measurements indicate significantly increased tropospheric concentrations of CO and ozone associated with BMB. BMB significantly enhances the microbial production and emission of NO(x) from soils, and of methane from wetlands.

The importance of invertebrates when considering the impacts of anthropogenic noise

PubMed Central

Morley, Erica L.; Jones, Gareth; Radford, Andrew N.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic noise is now recognized as a major global pollutant. Rapidly burgeoning research has identified impacts on individual behaviour and physiology through to community disruption. To date, however, there has been an almost exclusive focus on vertebrates. Not only does their central role in food webs and in fulfilling ecosystem services make imperative our understanding of how invertebrates are impacted by all aspects of environmental change, but also many of their inherent characteristics provide opportunities to overcome common issues with the current anthropogenic noise literature. Here, we begin by explaining why invertebrates are likely to be affected by anthropogenic noise, briefly reviewing their capacity for hearing and providing evidence that they are capable of evolutionary adaptation and behavioural plasticity in response to natural noise sources. We then discuss the importance of quantifying accurately and fully both auditory ability and noise content, emphasizing considerations of direct relevance to how invertebrates detect sounds. We showcase how studying invertebrates can help with the behavioural bias in the literature, the difficulties in drawing strong, ecologically valid conclusions and the need for studies on fitness impacts. Finally, we suggest avenues of future research using invertebrates that would advance our understanding of the impact of anthropogenic noise. PMID:24335986

The importance of invertebrates when considering the impacts of anthropogenic noise.

PubMed

Morley, Erica L; Jones, Gareth; Radford, Andrew N

2014-02-07

Anthropogenic noise is now recognized as a major global pollutant. Rapidly burgeoning research has identified impacts on individual behaviour and physiology through to community disruption. To date, however, there has been an almost exclusive focus on vertebrates. Not only does their central role in food webs and in fulfilling ecosystem services make imperative our understanding of how invertebrates are impacted by all aspects of environmental change, but also many of their inherent characteristics provide opportunities to overcome common issues with the current anthropogenic noise literature. Here, we begin by explaining why invertebrates are likely to be affected by anthropogenic noise, briefly reviewing their capacity for hearing and providing evidence that they are capable of evolutionary adaptation and behavioural plasticity in response to natural noise sources. We then discuss the importance of quantifying accurately and fully both auditory ability and noise content, emphasizing considerations of direct relevance to how invertebrates detect sounds. We showcase how studying invertebrates can help with the behavioural bias in the literature, the difficulties in drawing strong, ecologically valid conclusions and the need for studies on fitness impacts. Finally, we suggest avenues of future research using invertebrates that would advance our understanding of the impact of anthropogenic noise.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith

2011-02-01

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climatemore » feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.« less

Global sea level linked to global temperature

PubMed Central

Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2009-01-01

We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100. PMID:19995972

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.

2015-07-01

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.; Samset, B. H.

2015-02-01

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the

Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales.

PubMed

Devaraju, N; Bala, G; Nemani, R

2015-09-01

Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Radiative effect of anthropogenic dust ageing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingmueller, K.; Lelieveld, J.; Karydis, V.; Stenchikov, G. L.

2017-12-01

The chemical ageing of mineral dust mixing due to the uptake of air pollution affects the optical and hygroscopical properties of the dust particles and their atmospheric residence time. This results in an anthropogenic radiative forcing associated with mineral dust despite the natural origin of most dust particles. Using the atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC with a detailed parametrisation of chemical ageing and an emission scheme accounting for the chemical composition of desert soils, we study the direct radiative forcing globally and regionally. Preliminary results indicate large positive and negative forcings, depending on the region. The predominantly negative top of atmosphere forcing over large parts of the dust belt, from West Africa to East Asia, reaches about -2 W / m2 south of the Sahel, in contrast to positive forcings over India and the western Atlantic. Globally averaged, these forcings partially counterbalance, resulting in a negative forcing of -0.04 to -0.05 W / m2, nevertheless representing a considerable fraction of the total dust forcing.

Anthropogenic contamination of tap water, beer, and sea salt

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Plastic pollution has been well documented in natural environments, including the open waters and sediments within lakes and rivers, the open ocean and even the air, but less attention has been paid to synthetic polymers in human consumables. Since multiple toxicity studies indicate risks to human health when plastic particles are ingested, more needs to be known about the presence and abundance of anthropogenic particles in human foods and beverages. This study investigates the presence of anthropogenic particles in 159 samples of globally sourced tap water, 12 brands of Laurentian Great Lakes beer, and 12 brands of commercial sea salt. Of the tap water samples analyzed, 81% were found to contain anthropogenic particles. The majority of these particles were fibers (98.3%) between 0.1–5 mm in length. The range was 0 to 61 particles/L, with an overall mean of 5.45 particles/L. Anthropogenic debris was found in each brand of beer and salt. Of the extracted particles, over 99% were fibers. After adjusting for particles found in lab blanks for both salt and beer, the average number of particles found in beer was 4.05 particles/L with a range of 0 to 14.3 particles/L and the average number of particles found in each brand of salt was 212 particles/kg with a range of 46.7 to 806 particles/kg. Based on consumer guidelines, our results indicate the average person ingests over 5,800 particles of synthetic debris from these three sources annually, with the largest contribution coming from tap water (88%). PMID:29641556

Atmospheric verification of anthropogenic CO2 emission trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francey, Roger J.; Trudinger, Cathy M.; van der Schoot, Marcel; Law, Rachel M.; Krummel, Paul B.; Langenfelds, Ray L.; Paul Steele, L.; Allison, Colin E.; Stavert, Ann R.; Andres, Robert J.; Rödenbeck, Christian

2013-05-01

International efforts to limit global warming and ocean acidification aim to slow the growth of atmospheric CO2, guided primarily by national and industry estimates of production and consumption of fossil fuels. Atmospheric verification of emissions is vital but present global inversion methods are inadequate for this purpose. We demonstrate a clear response in atmospheric CO2 coinciding with a sharp 2010 increase in Asian emissions but show persisting slowing mean CO2 growth from 2002/03. Growth and inter-hemispheric concentration difference during the onset and recovery of the Global Financial Crisis support a previous speculation that the reported 2000-2008 emissions surge is an artefact, most simply explained by a cumulative underestimation (~ 9PgC) of 1994-2007 emissions; in this case, post-2000 emissions would track mid-range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. An alternative explanation requires changes in the northern terrestrial land sink that offset anthropogenic emission changes. We suggest atmospheric methods to help resolve this ambiguity.

Ocean N2O Emissions : Recent Global Estimates and Anthropogenically Influenced Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suntharalingam, P.; Buithenuis, E.; Andrews, O.; Le Quere, C.

2016-12-01

Oceanic N2O is produced by microbial activity during organic matter cycling in the subsurface ocean; its production mechanisms display sensitivity to ambient oxygen level. In the oxic ocean, N2O is produced as a byproduct during the oxidation of ammonia to nitrate, mediated by ammonia oxidizing bacteria and archea. N2O is also produced and consumed in sub-oxic and anoxic waters through the action of marine denitrifiers during the multi-step reduction of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen. The oceanic N2O distribution therefore displays significant heterogeneity with background levels of 10-20 nmol/l in the well-oxygenated ocean basins, high concentrations (> 40 nmol/l) in hypoxic waters, and N2O depletion in the core of ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Oceanic N2O emissions are estimated to account for up to a third of the pre-industrial N2O fluxes to the atmosphere, however the natural cycle of ocean N2O has been perturbed in recent decades by inputs of anthropogenically derived nutrient, and by the impacts of climate change. Anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (e.g., NOx and NHy from fossil fuel combustion and agricultural fertilizer) enter the ocean via atmospheric deposition and riverine fluxes, influencing oceanic N2O production via their impact on the marine organic matter cycle. In addition, climate variations associated with surface ocean warming affect oceanic circulation and nutrient transport pathways, influencing marine productivity and the ventilation of oxygen minimum zones. Recent studies have suggested that possible expansion of oceanic OMZs in a warming climate could lead to significant changes in N2O production and fluxes from these regions. We will summarise the current state of knowledge on the ocean N2O budget and net flux to the atmosphere. Recently reported estimates have been based on (i) empirical relationships derived from ocean tracer data (e.g., involving excess N2O and Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) correlations), (ii) ocean biogeochemical

Causal involvement of visual area MT in global feature-based enhancement but not contingent attentional capture.

PubMed

Painter, David R; Dux, Paul E; Mattingley, Jason B

2015-09-01

When visual attention is set for a particular target feature, such as color or shape, neural responses to that feature are enhanced across the visual field. This global feature-based enhancement is hypothesized to underlie the contingent attentional capture effect, in which task-irrelevant items with the target feature capture spatial attention. In humans, however, different cortical regions have been implicated in global feature-based enhancement and contingent capture. Here, we applied intermittent theta-burst stimulation (iTBS) to assess the causal roles of two regions of extrastriate cortex - right area MT and the right temporoparietal junction (TPJ) - in both global feature-based enhancement and contingent capture. We recorded cortical activity using EEG while participants monitored centrally for targets defined by color and ignored peripheral checkerboards that matched the distractor or target color. In central vision, targets were preceded by colored cues designed to capture attention. Stimuli flickered at unique frequencies, evoking distinct cortical oscillations. Analyses of these oscillations and behavioral performance revealed contingent capture in central vision and global feature-based enhancement in the periphery. Stimulation of right area MT selectively increased global feature-based enhancement, but did not influence contingent attentional capture. By contrast, stimulation of the right TPJ left both processes unaffected. Our results reveal a causal role for the right area MT in feature-based attention, and suggest that global feature-based enhancement does not underlie the contingent capture effect. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

2016-01-01

During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

Lightning Enhancement Over Major Shipping Lanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, J. A.; Holzworth, R. H., II; Virts, K.; Mitchell, T. P.

2017-12-01

Using twelve years of high resolution global lightning stroke data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), we show that lightning density is enhanced by up to a factor of two directly over shipping lanes in the northeastern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea as compared to adjacent areas with similar climatological characteristics. The lightning enhancement is most prominent during the convectively active season, November-April for the Indian Ocean and April - December in the South China Sea, and has been detectable from at least 2005 to the present. We hypothesize that emissions of aerosol particles and precursors by maritime vessel traffic leads to a microphysical enhancement of convection and storm electrification in the region of the shipping lanes. These persistent localized anthropogenic perturbations to otherwise clean regions are a unique opportunity to more thoroughly understand the sensitivity of maritime deep convection and lightning to aerosol particles.

Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2016-01-01

We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

Global Enhanced Vegetation Index

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

By carefully measuring the wavelengths and intensity of visible and near-infrared light reflected by the land surface back up into space, the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Team can quantify the concentrations of green leaf vegetation around the world. The above MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) map shows the density of plant growth over the entire globe. Very low values of EVI (white and brown areas) correspond to barren areas of rock, sand, or snow. Moderate values (light greens) represent shrub and grassland, while high values indicate temperate and tropical rainforests (dark greens). The MODIS EVI gives scientists a new tool for monitoring major fluctuations in vegetation and understanding how they affect, and are affected by, regional climate trends. For more information, read NASA Unveils Spectacular Suite of New Global Data Products from MODIS. Image courtesy MODIS Land Group/Vegetation Indices, Alfredo Huete, Principal Investigator, and Kamel Didan, University of Arizona

The Impact of Biogenic and Anthropogenic Atmospheric Aerosol on Climate in Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, A. I.; Zakey, A.; Steiner, A. L.; Shokr, M. E.; El-Raey, M.; Ahmed, Y.; Al-Hadidi, A.; Zakey, A.

2014-12-01

Aerosols are indicators of air quality as they reduce visibility and adversely affect public health. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is a measure of the radiation extinction due to interaction of radiation with aerosol particles in the atmosphere. Using this optical measure of atmospheric aerosols we explore the seasonal and annual patterns of aerosols from both anthropogenic and biogenic sources over Egypt. Here, we use an integrated environment-climate-aerosol model in conjunction with inversion technique to identify the aerosol particle size distribution over different locations in Egypt. The online-integrated Environment-Climate-Aerosol model (EnvClimA), which is based on the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model (ICTP-RegCM), is used to study the emission of different aerosols and their impact on climate parameters for a long-term base line simulation run over Egypt and North Africa. The global emission inventory is downscaled and remapping them over Egypt using local factors such as population, traffic and industrial activities to identify the sources of anthropogenic and biogenic emission from local emission over Egypt. The results indicated that the dominant natural aerosols over Egypt are dust emissions that frequently occur during the transitional seasons (Spring and Autumn). From the local observation we identify the number of dust and sand storm occurrences over Egypt. The Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) is used to identify the optical characterizations of different types of aerosols over Egypt. Modeled aerosol optical depth and MISR observed (at 555 nm) are compared from March 2000 through November 2013. The results identify that the MISR AOD captures the maximum peaks of AOD in March/April that coincide with the Khamasin dust storms. However, peaks in May are either due to photochemical reactions or anthropogenic activities. Note: This presentation is for a Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research (PEER

Non-communicable diseases and global health governance: enhancing global processes to improve health development.

PubMed

Magnusson, Roger S

2007-05-22

This paper assesses progress in the development of a global framework for responding to non-communicable diseases, as reflected in the policies and initiatives of the World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank and the UN: the institutions most capable of shaping a coherent global policy. Responding to the global burden of chronic disease requires a strategic assessment of the global processes that are likely to be most effective in generating commitment to policy change at country level, and in influencing industry behaviour. WHO has adopted a legal process with tobacco (the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control), but a non-legal, advocacy-based approach with diet and physical activity (the Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health). The paper assesses the merits of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the FCTC as distinct global processes for advancing health development, before considering what lessons might be learned for enhancing the implementation of the Global Strategy on Diet. While global partnerships, economic incentives, and international legal instruments could each contribute to a more effective global response to chronic diseases, the paper makes a special case for the development of international legal standards in select areas of diet and nutrition, as a strategy for ensuring that the health of future generations does not become dependent on corporate charity and voluntary commitments. A broader frame of reference for lifestyle-related chronic diseases is needed: one that draws together WHO's work in tobacco, nutrition and physical activity, and that envisages selective use of international legal obligations, non-binding recommendations, advocacy and policy advice as tools of choice for promoting different elements of the strategy.

Non-communicable diseases and global health governance: enhancing global processes to improve health development

PubMed Central

Magnusson, Roger S

2007-01-01

This paper assesses progress in the development of a global framework for responding to non-communicable diseases, as reflected in the policies and initiatives of the World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank and the UN: the institutions most capable of shaping a coherent global policy. Responding to the global burden of chronic disease requires a strategic assessment of the global processes that are likely to be most effective in generating commitment to policy change at country level, and in influencing industry behaviour. WHO has adopted a legal process with tobacco (the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control), but a non-legal, advocacy-based approach with diet and physical activity (the Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health). The paper assesses the merits of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the FCTC as distinct global processes for advancing health development, before considering what lessons might be learned for enhancing the implementation of the Global Strategy on Diet. While global partnerships, economic incentives, and international legal instruments could each contribute to a more effective global response to chronic diseases, the paper makes a special case for the development of international legal standards in select areas of diet and nutrition, as a strategy for ensuring that the health of future generations does not become dependent on corporate charity and voluntary commitments. A broader frame of reference for lifestyle-related chronic diseases is needed: one that draws together WHO's work in tobacco, nutrition and physical activity, and that envisages selective use of international legal obligations, non-binding recommendations, advocacy and policy advice as tools of choice for promoting different elements of the strategy. PMID:17519005

Limited Effect of Anthropogenic Nitrogen Oxides on Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Unger, N.; Hodzic, A.; Knote, C. J.; Tilmes, S.; Emmons, L. K.; Lamarque, J. F.; Yu, P.

2014-12-01

Globally secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is mostly formed from biogenic vegetation emissions and as such is regarded as natural aerosol that cannot be reduced by emission control legislation. However, recent research implies that human activities facilitate SOA formation by affecting the amount of precursor emission, the chemical processing and the partitioning into the aerosol phase. Among the multiple human influences, nitrogen oxides (NO + NO2 = NOx) have been assumed to play a critical role in the chemical formation of low volatile compounds. The goal of this study is to improve the SOA scheme in the global NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 4 with chemistry (CAM4-Chem) by implementing an updated 4-product Volatility Basis Set (VBS) scheme, and apply it to investigate the impact of anthropogenic NOx on SOA. We first compare three different SOA parameterizations: a 2-product model and the updated VBS model both with and without a SOA aging parameterization. Secondly we evaluate predicted organic aerosol amounts against surface measurement from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network and Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) measurements from 13 aircraft-based field campaigns. We then perform sensitivity experiments to examine how the SOA loading responds to a 50% reduction in anthropogenic NOx in different regions. We find limited SOA reductions of -2.3%, -5.6% and -4.0% for global, southeastern U.S. and Amazon NOx perturbations, respectively. To investigate the chemical processes in more detail, we also use a simplified box model with the same gas-phase chemistry and gas-aerosol partitioning mechanism as in CAM4-Chem to examine the SOA yields dependence on initial precursor emissions and background NOx level. The fact that SOA formation is almost unaffected by changes in NOx can be largely attributed to buffering in chemical pathways (low- versus high-NOx pathways, OH versus NO3-initiated oxidation) and to offsetting

Anthropogenic influence on trace element geochemistry of healing mud (peloid) from Makirina Cove (Croatia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miko, S.; Koch, G.; Mesić, S.; Šparica-Miko, M.; Šparica, M.; Čepelak, R.; Bačani, A.; Vreča, P.; Dolenec, T.; Bergant, S.

2008-08-01

Due to their balneotherapeutic features, the organic-rich sediments in Makirina Cove are an important source of healing mud. An environmental geochemistry approach using normalization techniques was applied to evaluate the anthropogenic contribution of trace metals to sediments used as healing mud. Sediment geochemistry was found to be associated with land-use change and storm events, as well as with proximity of a road with heavy traffic in the summer months. Local valley topography preferentially channels lithogenic and pollutant transport to the cove. Concentrations and distribution of trace metals indicate lithogenic (Ni, Cr, Co) and anthropogenic (Pb, Cu, Zn and Se) contributions to the sediments. The calculation of enrichment factors indicates a moderate (EFs between 2-3.5) input of anthropogenic Cu and Pb in surficial sediments to a depth of 10 cm. Patients using the Makirina Cove sediments as healing mud could be to some extent exposed to enhanced uptake of metals from anthropogenic sources via dermal contact.

Amounts, isotopic character, and ages of organic and inorganic carbon exported from rivers to ocean margins: 2. Assessment of natural and anthropogenic controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossler, Katie; Bauer, James E.

2013-04-01

Riverine exports of carbon (C) and organic matter (OM) are regulated by a variety of natural and anthropogenic factors. Understanding the relationships between these various factors and C and OM exports can help to constrain global C budgets and allow assessment of current and future anthropogenic impacts on both riverine and global C cycles. We quantified the effects of multiple natural and anthropogenic controls on riverine export fluxes and compositions of particulate organic C, dissolved organic C, and dissolved inorganic C for a regional group of eight rivers in the northeastern U.S. Potential controls related to hydrogeomorphology and regional climate, soil order, soil texture, bedrock lithology, land use, and anthropogenic factors were analyzed individually, collectively, and at scales of both local and regional influence. Factors related to hydrogeomorphology and climate, followed in importance by land use and anthropogenic factors, exhibited the strongest impacts on riverine C exports and compositions, particularly at smaller localized scales. The effects of hydrogeomorphology and climate were primarily related to volumetric flow, which resulted in greater exports of terrestrial and total C. Principal anthropogenic factors included impacts of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and river impoundments. The presence of WWTPs as well as anthropogenic use of carbonate-based materials (e.g., limestone) may have substantially increased riverine C exports, particularly fossil C exports, in the study region. The presence of nuclear power plants in the associated watersheds is also discussed because of the potential for anthropogenic 14C inputs and subsequent biasing of aquatic C studies utilizing natural abundance 14C.

Acceleration of modern acidification in the South China Sea driven by anthropogenic CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yi; Peng, Zicheng; Zhou, Renjun; Song, Shaohua; Liu, Weiguo; You, Chen-Feng; Lin, Yen-Po; Yu, Kefu; Wu, Chung-Che; Wei, Gangjian; Xie, Luhua; Burr, George S.; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2014-06-01

Modern acidification by the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 can profoundly affect the physiology of marine organisms and the structure of ocean ecosystems. Centennial-scale global and regional influences of anthropogenic CO2 remain largely unknown due to limited instrumental pH records. Here we present coral boron isotope-inferred pH records for two periods from the South China Sea: AD 1048-1079 and AD 1838-2001. There are no significant pH differences between the first period at the Medieval Warm Period and AD 1830-1870. However, we find anomalous and unprecedented acidification during the 20th century, pacing the observed increase in atmospheric CO2. Moreover, pH value also varies in phase with inter-decadal changes in Asian Winter Monsoon intensity. As the level of atmospheric CO2 keeps rising, the coupling global warming via weakening the winter monsoon intensity could exacerbate acidification of the South China Sea and threaten this expansive shallow water marine ecosystem.

Acceleration of modern acidification in the South China Sea driven by anthropogenic CO2

PubMed Central

Liu, Yi; Peng, Zicheng; Zhou, Renjun; Song, Shaohua; Liu, Weiguo; You, Chen-Feng; Lin, Yen-Po; Yu, Kefu; Wu, Chung-Che; Wei, Gangjian; Xie, Luhua; Burr, George S.; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2014-01-01

Modern acidification by the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 can profoundly affect the physiology of marine organisms and the structure of ocean ecosystems. Centennial-scale global and regional influences of anthropogenic CO2 remain largely unknown due to limited instrumental pH records. Here we present coral boron isotope-inferred pH records for two periods from the South China Sea: AD 1048–1079 and AD 1838–2001. There are no significant pH differences between the first period at the Medieval Warm Period and AD 1830–1870. However, we find anomalous and unprecedented acidification during the 20th century, pacing the observed increase in atmospheric CO2. Moreover, pH value also varies in phase with inter-decadal changes in Asian Winter Monsoon intensity. As the level of atmospheric CO2 keeps rising, the coupling global warming via weakening the winter monsoon intensity could exacerbate acidification of the South China Sea and threaten this expansive shallow water marine ecosystem. PMID:24888785

Isolating the Meteorological Impact of 21st Century GHG Warming on the Removal and Atmospheric Loading of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter Pollution at Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yangyang; Lamarque, Jean-François

2018-03-01

Particulate matter with the diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) poses health threats to human population. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1), we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5%-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global warming alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the primary cause of the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally over North America and East Asia, a shift of future precipitation toward more frequent heavy events contributes to weakened wet removal fluxes. Our results suggest climate change impact needs to be accounted for to define the future emission standards necessary to meet air quality standard.

Anthropogenic Signatures of Lead in the Northeast Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusiecka, D.; Gledhill, M.; Milne, A.; Achterberg, E. P.; Annett, A. L.; Atkinson, S.; Birchill, A.; Karstensen, J.; Lohan, M.; Mariez, C.; Middag, R.; Rolison, J. M.; Tanhua, T.; Ussher, S.; Connelly, D.

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic activities have resulted in enhanced lead (Pb) emissions to the environment over the past century, mainly through the combustion of leaded gasoline. Here we present the first combined dissolved (DPb), labile (LpPb), and particulate (PPb) Pb data set from the Northeast Atlantic (Celtic Sea) since the phasing out of leaded gasoline in Europe. Concentrations of DPb in surface waters have decreased by fourfold over the last four decades. We demonstrate that anthropogenic Pb is transported from the Mediterranean Sea over long distances (>2,500 km). Benthic DPb fluxes exceeded the atmospheric Pb flux in the region, indicating the importance of sediments as a contemporary Pb source. A strong positive correlation between DPb, PPb, and LpPb indicates a dynamic equilibrium between the phases and the potential for particles to "buffer" the DPb pool. This study provides insights into Pb biogeochemical cycling and demonstrates the potential of Pb in constraining ocean circulation patterns.

A GLOBAL INVENTORY OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND EMISSIONS FROM ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an effort to assess the potential impacts associated with global climate change, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development is supporting global atmospheric chemistry research by developing global scale estimates of volatile organic c...

Molecular and Microbial Mechanisms Increasing Soil C Storage Under Future Rates of Anthropogenic N Deposition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zak, Donald R.

A growing body of evidence reveals that anthropogenic N deposition can reduce the microbial decay of plant detritus and increase soil C storage across a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems. This aspect of global change has the potential to constrain the accumulation of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth’s atmosphere, and hence slow the pace of climate warming. The molecular and microbial mechanisms underlying this biogeochemical response are not understood, and they are not a component of any coupled climate-biogeochemical model estimating ecosystem C storage, and hence, the future climate of an N-enriched Earth. Here, we report the use ofmore » genomic-enabled approaches to identify the molecular underpinnings of the microbial mechanisms leading to greater soil C storage in response to anthropogenic N deposition, thereby enabling us to better anticipate changes in soil C storage.« less

Biogenic-Anthropogenic Interactions in Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation and Health Effects of Atmospheric Organic Aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Jianhuai

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), comprises a major fraction of atmospheric submicron particulate matter, which is crucial for global climate change and human health. While biogenic VOCs are naturally emitted and cannot be directly controlled, field measurements and satellite observations have shown that biogenic SOA (BSOA) formation correlates well with anthropogenic pollutants and may be anthropogenically controlled. In this work, the formation of the "anthropogenically controllable BSOA" was examined. BSOA from alpha-pinene ozonolysis was investigated in the presence of laboratory-generated or ambient organic aerosol such as Toronto ambient particles. It is shown that SOA was not equally miscible with all organic species. Aerosol mixing thermodynamics in the atmosphere is composition dependent. Based on laboratory observations, an empirical framework using bulk elemental ratios was developed to predict atmospheric organic miscibility and SOA yield enhancements. Besides organic aerosol, interactions between BSOA formation and SO2 was also examined. Synergistic effects were observed between BSOA formation and SO2 oxidation through Criegee and peroxide chemistry under atmospherically relevant RH conditions. In addition to the physicochemical properties of SOA, health impacts of SOA were examined. An atmospheric simulation reactor (ASR) was developed to investigate the health effects of air pollutants by permitting controlled chronic in vivo exposure of mice to combine particulate and gaseous pollutants at 'real-life' concentrations. Results show that daily exposure to SOA from naphthalene photooxidation led to increased airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) to methacholine in a dose-dependent manner. Multi-pollutant exposures with ozone and/or NO2 in conjunction with a sub-toxic concentration of SOA resulted in additive effects on AHR to methacholine. Inflammatory cell recruitment to the airways was not observed

Anthropogenic nitrogen emissions during the Holocene and their possible effects on remote ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KopáčEk, Jiří; Posch, Maximilian

2011-06-01

Reactive nitrogen (Nr = NH3-N + NOx-N) is an important atmospheric pollutant, contributing to acidification, eutrophication and biodiversity changes in ecosystems. This study estimates Nr emissions from anthropogenic sources on a global scale since the advent of agriculture ˜8000 B.C., using a simple model based on the development of human population and per capita factors of Nr emissions originating from livestock production, biomass burning (biofuel use and forest and savannah burning), and other anthropogenic sources (humans and pets, N-fertilizer use, and fossil fuel combustion). The estimated global cumulative anthropogenic emissions of Nr to the atmosphere are ˜17.4 Pg N (8.6 Pg NH3-N and 8.8 Pg NOx-N) for 8000 B.C. through the year 2000 A.D., with 28% of this amount emitted during 1850-2000 A.D., 42% during 1-1850 A.D., and 30% during the previous 8000 years. Forest and savannah burning represent the major cumulative flux of both NH3-N and NOx-N (3.5 and 5.8 Pg, respectively). Livestock production and biofuel burning are responsible for emissions of 3.3 and 1.2 Pg NH3-N, respectively, while the application of synthetic fertilizers contributes 0.26 Pg NH3-N. The different duration of biofuel and fossil fuel use (10,000 versus ˜150 years) causes the higher cumulative NOx-N emissions from biofuel than from fossil fuel use (1.9 versus 1.1 Pg). The cumulative Nr emissions on a land area basis are 1.3 and 3.0 Mg N ha-1 globally and in Europe, respectively. Since an estimated 60% of Nr emitted in Europe is also deposited there, the average cumulative anthropogenic Nr deposition would be ˜1.8 Mg N ha-1, representing ˜30% of the current N pools in forest and alpine meadow soils of European glaciated areas (i.e., soils of similar age as the emissions). Despite large uncertainties in the model (13.7-30.5 Pg N over the last 10,000 years), the relative temporal distributions of total cumulative Nr emissions vary within relatively narrow ranges for different

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-01-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth’s terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25–40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-03-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth's terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25-40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2016-01-01

A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models,…

Anthropogenic noise decreases urban songbird diversity and may contribute to homogenization.

PubMed

Proppe, Darren S; Sturdy, Christopher B; St Clair, Colleen Cassady

2013-04-01

More humans reside in urban areas than at any other time in history. Protected urban green spaces and transportation greenbelts support many species, but diversity in these areas is generally lower than in undeveloped landscapes. Habitat degradation and fragmentation contribute to lowered diversity and urban homogenization, but less is known about the role of anthropogenic noise. Songbirds are especially vulnerable to anthropogenic noise because they rely on acoustic signals for communication. Recent studies suggest that anthropogenic noise reduces the density and reproductive success of some bird species, but that species which vocalize at frequencies above those of anthropogenic noise are more likely to inhabit noisy areas. We hypothesize that anthropogenic noise is contributing to declines in urban diversity by reducing the abundance of select species in noisy areas, and that species with low-frequency songs are those most likely to be affected. To examine this relationship, we calculated the noise-associated change in overall species richness and in abundance for seven common songbird species. After accounting for variance due to vegetative differences, species richness and the abundance of three of seven species were reduced in noisier locations. Acoustic analysis revealed that minimum song frequency was highly predictive of a species' response to noise, with lower minimum song frequencies incurring greater noise-associated reduction in abundance. These results suggest that anthropogenic noise affects some species independently of vegetative conditions, exacerbating the exclusion of some songbird species in otherwise suitable habitat. Minimum song frequency may provide a useful metric to predict how particular species will be affected by noise. In sum, mitigation of noise may enhance habitat suitability for many songbird species, especially for species with songs that include low-frequency elements. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Biogeophysical Climatic Impacts of Anthropogenic Land Use Change during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Clare; Singarayer, Joy; Valdes, Paul; Kaplan, Jed; Branch, Nicholas

2016-04-01

The first agricultural societies were established around 10ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with HadCM3 were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation simulated by TRIFFID but no land-use changes, and (ii) where the anthropogenic land use model, KK10 (Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011*) has been used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations have been run at 1,000 year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and S.E. Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7ka BP in the June/July/August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2-3ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western United States (US) in recent decades has contributed to widespread forest mortality, carbon emissions, periods of degraded air quality, and substantial fire suppression expenditures. The increase in forest fire activity has likely been enabled by a number of factors including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, changes in suppression policies, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western US. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit have significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades. Comparing observational climate records to records recalculated after removal of modeled anthropogenic trends, we find that anthropogenic climate change accounted for approximately 55% of observed increases in the eight-metric mean fuel aridity during 1979-2015 across western US forests. This implicates anthropogenic climate change as an important driver of observed increases in fuel aridity, and also highlights the importance of natural multi-decadal climate variability in influencing trends in forest fire potential on the timescales of human lives. Based on a very strong (R2 = 0.76) and mechanistically reasonable relationship between interannual variability in the eight-metric mean fuel aridity and forest-fire area in the western US, we estimate that anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha (95% confidence range: 2.7-6.5 million ha) of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the total forest fire area expected in the absence of anthropogenic climate change. The relationship between annual forest fire area and fuel aridity is exponential and the proportion of total forest area burned in a given

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Avise, J.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

2014-12-01

To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the US, we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use, and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected Asian emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 ppb across most of the continental US, with the highest increase in the South, Central, and Midwest regions of the US, due to increases in temperature, enhanced

Satellite data based approach for the estimation of anthropogenic heat flux over urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitis, Theodoros; Tsegas, George; Moussiopoulos, Nicolas; Gounaridis, Dimitrios; Bliziotis, Dimitrios

2017-09-01

Anthropogenic effects in urban areas influence the thermal conditions in the environment and cause an increase of the atmospheric temperature. The cities are sources of heat and pollution, affecting the thermal structure of the atmosphere above them which results to the urban heat island effect. In order to analyze the urban heat island mechanism, it is important to estimate the anthropogenic heat flux which has a considerable impact on the urban energy budget. The anthropogenic heat flux is the result of man-made activities (i.e. traffic, industrial processes, heating/cooling) and thermal releases from the human body. Many studies have underlined the importance of the Anthropogenic Heat Flux to the calculation of the urban energy budget and subsequently, the estimation of mesoscale meteorological fields over urban areas. Therefore, spatially disaggregated anthropogenic heat flux data, at local and city scales, are of major importance for mesoscale meteorological models. The main objectives of the present work are to improve the quality of such data used as input for mesoscale meteorological models simulations and to enhance the application potential of GIS and remote sensing in the fields of climatology and meteorology. For this reason, the Urban Energy Budget concept is proposed as the foundation for an accurate determination of the anthropogenic heat discharge as a residual term in the surface energy balance. The methodology is applied to the cities of Athens and Paris using the Landsat ETM+ remote sensing data. The results will help to improve our knowledge on Anthropogenic Heat Flux, while the potential for further improvement of the methodology is also discussed.

Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2014-08-01

Detection and attribution of human influence on sea level rise are important topics that have not yet been explored in depth. We question whether the sea level changes (SLC) over the past century were natural in origin. SLC exhibit power law long-term correlations. By estimating Hurst exponent through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and by applying statistics of Lennartz and Bunde, we search the lower bounds of statistically significant external sea level trends in longest tidal records worldwide. We provide statistical evidences that the observed SLC, at global and regional scales, is beyond its natural internal variability. The minimum anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT) contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50% in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and Mumbai. A MASLT is about 1 mm/yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total observed sea level trend during the XXth century.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. C.; Singarayer, J. S.; Valdes, P. J.; Kaplan, J. O.; Branch, N. P.

2015-10-01

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with HadCM3 were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation simulated by TRIFFID but no land-use changes, and (ii) where the anthropogenic land use model, KK10 (Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) has been used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations have been run at 1000 year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and S.E. Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June/July/August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2-3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies

Inventory of anthropogenic methane emissions in mainland China from 1980 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Shushi; Piao, Shilong; Bousquet, Philippe; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Bengang; Lin, Xin; Tao, Shu; Wang, Zhiping; Zhang, Yuan; Zhou, Feng

2016-11-01

Methane (CH4) has a 28-fold greater global warming potential than CO2 over 100 years. Atmospheric CH4 concentration has tripled since 1750. Anthropogenic CH4 emissions from China have been growing rapidly in the past decades and contribute more than 10 % of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions with large uncertainties in existing global inventories, generally limited to country-scale statistics. To date, a long-term CH4 emission inventory including the major sources sectors and based on province-level emission factors is still lacking. In this study, we produced a detailed annual bottom-up inventory of anthropogenic CH4 emissions from the eight major source sectors in China for the period 1980-2010. In the past 3 decades, the total CH4 emissions increased from 24.4 [18.6-30.5] Tg CH4 yr-1 in 1980 (mean [minimum-maximum of 95 % confidence interval]) to 44.9 [36.6-56.4] Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2010. Most of this increase took place in the 2000s decade with averaged yearly emissions of 38.5 [30.6-48.3] Tg CH4 yr-1. This fast increase of the total CH4 emissions after 2000 is mainly driven by CH4 emissions from coal exploitation. The largest contribution to total CH4 emissions also shifted from rice cultivation in 1980 to coal exploitation in 2010. The total emissions inferred in this work compare well with the EPA inventory but appear to be 36 and 18 % lower than the EDGAR4.2 inventory and the estimates using the same method but IPCC default emission factors, respectively. The uncertainty of our inventory is investigated using emission factors collected from state-of-the-art published literatures. We also distributed province-scale emissions into 0.1° × 0.1° maps using socioeconomic activity data. This new inventory could help understanding CH4 budgets at regional scale and guiding CH4 mitigation policies in China.

Global distribution and sources of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export to the coastal zone: Results from a spatially explicit, global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumont, E.; Harrison, J. A.; Kroeze, C.; Bakker, E. J.; Seitzinger, S. P.

2005-12-01

Here we describe, test, and apply a spatially explicit, global model for predicting dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by rivers to coastal waters (NEWS-DIN). NEWS-DIN was developed as part of an internally consistent suite of global nutrient export models. Modeled and measured DIN export values agree well (calibration R2 = 0.79), and NEWS-DIN is relatively free of bias. NEWS-DIN predicts: DIN yields ranging from 0.0004 to 5217 kg N km-2 yr-1 with the highest DIN yields occurring in Europe and South East Asia; global DIN export to coastal waters of 25 Tg N yr-1, with 16 Tg N yr-1 from anthropogenic sources; biological N2 fixation is the dominant source of exported DIN; and globally, and on every continent except Africa, N fertilizer is the largest anthropogenic source of DIN export to coastal waters.

The Anthropogenic Era Began Thousands of Years Ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruddiman, W. F.

2003-12-01

The anthropogenic era is generally thought to have begun about 150 years ago when the industrial revolution began producing CO2 and CH4 at rates sufficient to alter atmospheric compositions. The hypothesis proposed here is that anthropogenic emissions first altered atmospheric gas concentrations (and climate) thousands of years ago. This hypothesis rests on three arguments: (1) Cyclic variations in CO2 and CH4 driven by Earth-orbital changes during the last 400,000 years predict decreases of both gases throughout the Holocene, but CO2 began an anomalous increase near 8000 years ago and CH4 about 5000 years ago. (2) Published explanations attributing these Holocene gas increases to natural forcing can be rejected based on available paleoclimatic evidence. (3) Archeological, cultural, historical, and geologic sources provide viable explanations tied to anthropogenic changes that emerged from early agriculture in Eurasia, including forest clearance after 8000 years ago and lowland irrigation for rice farming by 5000 years ago. Prior to the industrial era, these emissions caused a mean-annual warming effect of ~0.8oC globally and 1.5-2oC at high latitudes. The early-anthropogenic warming counteracted most of a natural cooling that would otherwise have occurred, and it may have prevented a glaciation in northeastern Canada predicted by two kinds of climatic models. CO2 decreases as large as 10 ppm during the last 1000 years cannot be explained by solar-volcanic forcing without violating constraints imposed by reconstructions of northern hemisphere temperature. The CO2 decreases can be explained by bubonic plague pandemics that the caused widespread abandonment of western Eurasian farms documented in historical records. Rapid regrowth of forests on millions of abandoned farms could have sequestered enough carbon to explain the observed CO2 decreases. Plague-driven CO2 decreases were a significant causal factor in the cooler temperatures of the Little Ice Age from 1300 to

Fast and Slow Responses of the South Asian Monsoon System to Anthropogenic Aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

2012-09-25

Using a global climate model with fully predictive aerosol life cycle, we investigate the fast and slow responses of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Our results show that the feedbacks associated with sea surface temperature (SST) change caused by aerosols play a more important role than the aerosol's direct impact on radiation, clouds and land surface (rapid adjustments) in shaping the total equilibrium climate response of the monsoon system to aerosol forcing. Inhomogeneous SST cooling caused by anthropogenic aerosols eventually reduces the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient and the easterly shear of zonal winds over the region,more » slowing down the local Hadley cell circulation, decreasing the northward moisture transport, and causing a reduction in precipitation over South Asia. Although total responses in precipitation are closer to the slow responses in general, the fast component dominates over land areas north of 25°N. Our results also show an east-west asymmetry in the fast responses to anthropogenic aerosols causing increases in precipitation west of 80°E but decreases east of it.« less

Limited effect of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides on Secondary Organic Aerosol formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Unger, N.; Hodzic, A.; Emmons, L.; Knote, C.; Tilmes, S.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Yu, P.

2015-08-01

Globally, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is mostly formed from emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by vegetation, but can be modified by human activities as demonstrated in recent research. Specifically, nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) have been shown to play a critical role in the chemical formation of low volatility compounds. We have updated the SOA scheme in the global NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 4 with chemistry (CAM4-chem) by implementing a 4-product Volatility Basis Set (VBS) scheme, including NOx-dependent SOA yields and aging parameterizations. The predicted organic aerosol amounts capture both the magnitude and distribution of US surface annual mean measurements from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network by 50 %, and the simulated vertical profiles are within a factor of two compared to Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) measurements from 13 aircraft-based field campaigns across different region and seasons. We then perform sensitivity experiments to examine how the SOA loading responds to a 50 % reduction in anthropogenic nitric oxide (NO) emissions in different regions. We find limited SOA reductions of 0.9 to 5.6, 6.4 to 12.0 and 0.9 to 2.8 % for global, the southeast US and the Amazon NOx perturbations, respectively. The fact that SOA formation is almost unaffected by changes in NOx can be largely attributed to buffering in chemical pathways (low- and high-NOx pathways, O3 versus NO3-initiated oxidation) and to offsetting tendencies in the biogenic versus anthropogenic SOA responses.

Limited effect of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides on Secondary Organic Aerosol formation

DOE PAGES

Zheng, Y.; Unger, N.; Hodzic, A.; ...

2015-08-28

Globally, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is mostly formed from emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by vegetation, but can be modified by human activities as demonstrated in recent research. Specifically, nitrogen oxides (NO x = NO + NO 2) have been shown to play a critical role in the chemical formation of low volatility compounds. We have updated the SOA scheme in the global NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 4 with chemistry (CAM4-chem) by implementing a 4-product Volatility Basis Set (VBS) scheme, including NO x-dependent SOA yields and aging parameterizations. The predicted organic aerosol amounts capture both the magnitudemore » and distribution of US surface annual mean measurements from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network by 50 %, and the simulated vertical profiles are within a factor of two compared to Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) measurements from 13 aircraft-based field campaigns across different region and seasons. We then perform sensitivity experiments to examine how the SOA loading responds to a 50 % reduction in anthropogenic nitric oxide (NO) emissions in different regions. We find limited SOA reductions of 0.9 to 5.6, 6.4 to 12.0 and 0.9 to 2.8 % for global, the southeast US and the Amazon NO x perturbations, respectively. The fact that SOA formation is almost unaffected by changes in NO x can be largely attributed to buffering in chemical pathways (low- and high-NO x pathways, O 3 versus NO 3-initiated oxidation) and to offsetting tendencies in the biogenic versus anthropogenic SOA responses.« less

Importance of Sea Ice for Validating Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geiger, Cathleen A.

1997-01-01

Reproduction of current day large-scale physical features and processes is a critical test of global climate model performance. Without this benchmark, prognoses of future climate conditions are at best speculation. A fundamental question relevant to this issue is, which processes and observations are both robust and sensitive enough to be used for model validation and furthermore are they also indicators of the problem at hand? In the case of global climate, one of the problems at hand is to distinguish between anthropogenic and naturally occuring climate responses. The polar regions provide an excellent testing ground to examine this problem because few humans make their livelihood there, such that anthropogenic influences in the polar regions usually spawn from global redistribution of a source originating elsewhere. Concomitantly, polar regions are one of the few places where responses to climate are non-anthropogenic. Thus, if an anthropogenic effect has reached the polar regions (e.g. the case of upper atmospheric ozone sensitivity to CFCs), it has most likely had an impact globally but is more difficult to sort out from local effects in areas where anthropogenic activity is high. Within this context, sea ice has served as both a monitoring platform and sensitivity parameter of polar climate response since the time of Fridtjof Nansen. Sea ice resides in the polar regions at the air-sea interface such that changes in either the global atmospheric or oceanic circulation set up complex non-linear responses in sea ice which are uniquely determined. Sea ice currently covers a maximum of about 7% of the earth's surface but was completely absent during the Jurassic Period and far more extensive during the various ice ages. It is also geophysically very thin (typically <10 m in Arctic, <3 m in Antarctic) compared to the troposphere (roughly 10 km) and deep ocean (roughly 3 to 4 km). Because of these unique conditions, polar researchers regard sea ice as one of the

Modulation of snow reflectance and snowmelt from Central Asian glaciers by anthropogenic black carbon

PubMed Central

Schmale, Julia; Flanner, Mark; Kang, Shichang; Sprenger, Michael; Zhang, Qianggong; Guo, Junming; Li, Yang; Schwikowski, Margit; Farinotti, Daniel

2017-01-01

Deposited mineral dust and black carbon are known to reduce the albedo of snow and enhance melt. Here we estimate the contribution of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) to snowmelt in glacier accumulation zones of Central Asia based on in-situ measurements and modelling. Source apportionment suggests that more than 94% of the BC is emitted from mostly regional anthropogenic sources while the remaining contribution comes from natural biomass burning. Even though the annual deposition flux of mineral dust can be up to 20 times higher than that of BC, we find that anthropogenic BC causes the majority (60% on average) of snow darkening. This leads to summer snowmelt rate increases of up to 6.3% (7 cm a−1) on glaciers in three different mountain environments in Kyrgyzstan, based on albedo reduction and snowmelt models. PMID:28079148

Changes in Pacific Northwest Heat Waves and Associated Synoptic/Mesoscale Drivers Under Anthropogenic Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewer, M.; Mass, C.

2014-12-01

Though western Oregon and Washington summers are typically mild due to the influence of the nearby Pacific Ocean, this region occasionally experiences heat waves with temperatures in excess of 35ºC. These heat waves can have a substantial impact on this highly populated region, particularly since the population is unaccustomed to and generally unprepared for such conditions. A comprehensive evaluation is needed of past and future heat wave trends in frequency, intensity, and duration. Furthermore, it is important to understand the physical mechanisms of Northwest heat waves and how such mechanisms might change under anthropogenic global warming. Lower-tropospheric heat waves over the west coast of North America are the result of both synoptic and mesoscale factors, the latter requiring high-resolution models (roughly 12-15 km grid spacing) to simulate. Synoptic factors include large-scale warming due to horizontal advection and subsidence, as well as reductions in large-scale cloudiness. An important mesoscale factor is the occurrence of offshore (easterly) flow, resulting in an adiabatically warmed continental air mass spreading over the western lowlands rather than the more usual cool, marine air influence. To fully understand how heat waves will change under AGW, it is necessary to determine the combined impacts of both synoptic and mesoscale effects in a warming world. General Circulation Models (GCM) are generally are too coarse to simulate mesoscale effects realistically and thus may provide unreliable estimates of the frequency and magnitudes of West Coast heat waves. Therefore, to determine the regional implications of global warming, this work made use of long-term, high-resolution WRF simulations, at 36- and 12-km resolution, produced by dynamically downscaling GCM grids. This talk will examine the predicted trends in Pacific Northwest heat wave intensity, duration, and frequency during the 21st century (through 2100). The spatial distribution in the

Challenges for present and future estimates of anthropogenic carbon in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goyet, C.; Touratier, F.

One of the main challenges we face today is to determine the evolution of the penetration of anthropogenic CO2 into the Indian Ocean and its impacts on marine and human life. Anthropogenic CO2 reaches the ocean via air-sea interactions as well as riverine inputs. It is then stored in the ocean and follows the oceanic circulation. As the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere penetrates into the sea, it reacts with water and acidifies the ocean. Consequently, the whole marine ecosystem is perturbed, thus potentially affecting the food web, which has, in turn, a direct impact on seafood supply for humans. Naturally, this will mainly affect the growing number of people living in coastal areas. Although anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean is identical with natural CO2 and therefore cannot be detected alone, many approaches are available today to estimate it. Since most of the results of these methods are globally in agreement, here we chose one of these methods, the tracer using oxygen, total inorganic carbon, and total alkalinity (TrOCA) approach, to compute the 3-D distribution of the anthropogenic CO2 concentrations throughout the Indian Ocean. The results of this distribution clearly illustrate the contrast between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. They further show the importance of the southern part of this ocean that carries some anthropogenic CO2 at great depths. In order to determine the future anthropogenic impacts on the Indian Ocean, it is urgent and necessary to understand the present state. As the seawater temperature increases, how and how fast will the ocean circulation change? What will the impacts on seawater properties be? Many people are living on the bordering coasts, how will they be affected?

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

PubMed

Crowther, T W; Todd-Brown, K E O; Rowe, C W; Wieder, W R; Carey, J C; Machmuller, M B; Snoek, B L; Fang, S; Zhou, G; Allison, S D; Blair, J M; Bridgham, S D; Burton, A J; Carrillo, Y; Reich, P B; Clark, J S; Classen, A T; Dijkstra, F A; Elberling, B; Emmett, B A; Estiarte, M; Frey, S D; Guo, J; Harte, J; Jiang, L; Johnson, B R; Kröel-Dulay, G; Larsen, K S; Laudon, H; Lavallee, J M; Luo, Y; Lupascu, M; Ma, L N; Marhan, S; Michelsen, A; Mohan, J; Niu, S; Pendall, E; Peñuelas, J; Pfeifer-Meister, L; Poll, C; Reinsch, S; Reynolds, L L; Schmidt, I K; Sistla, S; Sokol, N W; Templer, P H; Treseder, K K; Welker, J M; Bradford, M A

2016-11-30

The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowther, T. W.; Todd-Brown, K. E. O.; Rowe, C. W.; Wieder, W. R.; Carey, J. C.; Machmuller, M. B.; Snoek, B. L.; Fang, S.; Zhou, G.; Allison, S. D.; Blair, J. M.; Bridgham, S. D.; Burton, A. J.; Carrillo, Y.; Reich, P. B.; Clark, J. S.; Classen, A. T.; Dijkstra, F. A.; Elberling, B.; Emmett, B. A.; Estiarte, M.; Frey, S. D.; Guo, J.; Harte, J.; Jiang, L.; Johnson, B. R.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Larsen, K. S.; Laudon, H.; Lavallee, J. M.; Luo, Y.; Lupascu, M.; Ma, L. N.; Marhan, S.; Michelsen, A.; Mohan, J.; Niu, S.; Pendall, E.; Peñuelas, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Poll, C.; Reinsch, S.; Reynolds, L. L.; Schmidt, I. K.; Sistla, S.; Sokol, N. W.; Templer, P. H.; Treseder, K. K.; Welker, J. M.; Bradford, M. A.

2016-12-01

The majority of the Earth’s terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Exploring Multiple Constraints of Anthropogenic Pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano, A. F., Jr.; Tang, W.; Silva, S. J.; Raman, A.

2017-12-01

It is imperative that we provide more accurate and consistent analysis of anthropogenic pollution emissions at scales that is relevant to air quality, energy, and environmental policy. Here, we present three proof-of-concept studies that explore observational constraints from ground, aircraft, and satellite-derived measurements of atmospheric composition on bulk characteristics of anthropogenic combustion in megacities and fire regions. We focus on jointly analyzing co-emitted combustion products such as CO2, NO2, CO, SO2, and aerosols from GOSAT, OCO-2, OMI, MOPITT, and MODIS retrievals, in conjunction with USEPA AQS and NASA field campaigns. Each of these constituents exhibit distinct atmospheric signatures that depend on fuel type, combustion technology, process, practices and regulatory policies. Our results show that distinguishable patterns and relationships between the increases in concentrations across the megacity (or enhancements) due to emissions of these constituents enable us to: a) identify trends in combustion activity and efficiency, and b) reconcile discrepancies between state- to country-based emission inventories and modeled concentrations of these constituents. For example, the trends in enhancement ratios of these species reveal combustion emission pathways for China and United States that are not captured by current emission inventories and chemical reanalysis. Analysis of their joint distributions has considerable potential utility in current and future integrated constituent data assimilation and inverse modeling activities for monitoring, verifying, and reporting emissions, particularly for regions with few observations and limited information on local combustion processes. This work also motivates the need for continuous and preferably collocated satellite measurements of atmospheric composition, including CH4 and CO2, and studies related to improving the applicability and integration of these observations with ground- and aircraft- based

Enhanced open ocean storage of CO2 from shelf sea pumping.

PubMed

Thomas, Helmuth; Bozec, Yann; Elkalay, Khalid; de Baar, Hein J W

2004-05-14

Seasonal field observations show that the North Sea, a Northern European shelf sea, is highly efficient in pumping carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the North Atlantic Ocean. The bottom topography-controlled stratification separates production and respiration processes in the North Sea, causing a carbon dioxide increase in the subsurface layer that is ultimately exported to the North Atlantic Ocean. Globally extrapolated, the net uptake of carbon dioxide by coastal and marginal seas is about 20% of the world ocean's uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, thus enhancing substantially the open ocean carbon dioxide storage.

A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

2013-01-01

Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

A Multicomponent Library Resource Model to Enhance Academic Global Health Education Among Residency Programs.

PubMed

Patel, Rupa R; Ravichandran, Sandhiya; Doering, Michelle M; Hardi, Angela C

2017-01-01

Global health is becoming an increasingly important component of medical education. Medical libraries have an opportunity to assist global health residents with their information needs, but first it is important to identify what those needs are and how best they can be addressed. This article reports a collaboration between global health faculty and an academic medical librarian to assess the information needs of global health pathway residents and how assessment data are used to create a multicomponent program designed to enhance global health education.

Terrestrial nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions at the global scale.

PubMed

Zaehle, S

2013-07-05

Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO2 fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001-2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr(-1) (1.9 Pg C yr(-1)), of which 10 Tg N yr(-1) (0.2 Pg C yr(-1)) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO2 fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen-carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. However, increases of N2O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr(-1) per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing.

A 3-D Model Analysis of The Impact of Asian Anthropogenic Emissions on the Sulfur Cycle Over the Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Thornton, Donald; Bandy, Alan; Huebert, Barry; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The impact of anthropogenic activities on the SO2 and sulfate aerosol levels over the Pacific region is examined in the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We focus on the analysis of the data from the NASA Pacific Exploratory Missions (PEM) over the western North Pacific and the tropical Pacific. These missions include PEM-West A in September-October 1991, when the Asian outflow was at the minimum but the upper atmosphere was heavily influenced by the Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and PEM-West B in March-April 1994 when the Asian outflow was at the maximum, and PEM-Tropics A in August-September at a region relatively free of direct anthropogenic influences. Specifically, we will examine the relative importance of anthropogenic, volcanic and biogenic sources to the SO2 and sulfate concentrations over the Pacific, and quantify the processes controlling the distributions of SO2 and sulfate in both the boundary layer and the free troposphere. We will also assess the global impact of SO2 emission in Asia on the sulfate aerosol loading.

Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, Gordon

2009-04-01

Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenbath, K. L.

2011-12-01

Scientists and educators strive to improve climate literacy throughout society, whether through communication of research findings or though classroom teaching. Despite these efforts, climate change misconceptions exist in students and the general public. When educators present evidence that contradicts misconceptions, students may begin to struggle with their inaccurate ideas and perhaps transition towards a scientifically-accepted understanding. These transitions, called conceptual change, can occur in college climate change courses. The purpose of this presentation is to describe college students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change and the way these ideas change throughout a climate change course. This presentation is based on five case studies of undergraduate students in a large lecture-hall course dedicated to climate change. Each case study student represents a different level of climate change understanding at the beginning of the semester. These case studies and subsequent cross-case analyses result from a qualitative research study using interviews, field notes, artifact analysis, coding and categorization, and research memos. The cases show shifts in all five students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change. During the first month of class, the three lower achieving students expressed uncertainty about the increase in average global temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change. At the end of the semester, these students explained that warming from climate change is natural, yet the rate of this warming is increasing due to human activities. Two of the lower achieving students constructed definitions of climate change different than the definition used by the professor in the classroom. These students solidified the idea that the term "climate change" describes the change that results from natural forcings only, while the term "global warming" describes change in the climate that results from human-caused forcings. Their

Enhancing Global Competitiveness: Benchmarking Airline Operational Performance in Highly Regulated Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowen, Brent D.; Headley, Dean E.; Kane, Karisa D.

1998-01-01

Enhancing competitiveness in the global airline industry is at the forefront of attention with airlines, government, and the flying public. The seemingly unchecked growth of major airline alliances is heralded as an enhancement to global competition. However, like many mega-conglomerates, mega-airlines will face complications driven by size regardless of the many recitations of enhanced efficiency. Outlined herein is a conceptual model to serve as a decision tool for policy-makers, managers, and consumers of airline services. This model is developed using public data for the United States (U.S.) major airline industry available from the U/S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Transportation Safety Board, and other public and private sector sources. Data points include number of accidents, pilot deviations, operational performance indicators, flight problems, and other factors. Data from these sources provide opportunity to develop a model based on a complex dot product equation of two vectors. A row vector is weighted for importance by a key informant panel of government, industry, and consumer experts, while a column vector is established with the factor value. The resulting equation, known as the national Airline Quality Rating (AQR), where Q is quality, C is weight, and V is the value of the variables, is stated Q=C[i1-19] x V[i1-19]. Looking at historical patterns of AQR results provides the basis for establishment of an industry benchmark for the purpose of enhancing airline operational performance. A 7 year average of overall operational performance provides the resulting benchmark indicator. Applications from this example can be applied to the many competitive environments of the global industry and assist policy-makers faced with rapidly changing regulatory challenges.

Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Seager, R.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Cook, B.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, E. R.

2015-12-01

California is currently in its fourth year of a drought that has caused record-breaking rates of ground-water extraction, fallowed agricultural fields, changes to water-use policy, dangrously low lake levels, and ecological disturbances such as large wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks. A common and important question is: to what degree can the severity of this drought in California, or of any drought globally, be blamed on human-caused global warming? Here we present the most comprehensive accounting of the natural and anthropogenic contributions to drought variability to date, and we provide an in-depth evaluation of the recent extreme drought in California. A suite of climate datasets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901-2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record-breaking in 2014, but probably not record-breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record-breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18% in 2014. Analyses will be updated through 2015 for this presentation. Although natural climate variability has often masked the background effects of warming on drought, the background effect is becoming increasingly detectable and important, particularly by increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts. The dramatic effects of the current drought in California, combined

Towards better monitoring of technology critical elements in Europe: Coupling of natural and anthropogenic cycles.

PubMed

Nuss, Philip; Blengini, Gian Andrea

2018-02-01

The characterization of elemental cycles has a rich history in biogeochemistry. Well known examples include the global carbon cycle, or the cycles of the 'grand nutrients' nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur. More recently, efforts have increased to better understand the natural cycling of technology critical elements (TCEs), i.e. elements with a high supply risk and economic importance in the EU. On the other hand, tools such as material-flow analysis (MFA) can help to understand how substances and goods are transported and accumulated in man-made technological systems ('anthroposphere'). However, to date both biogeochemical cycles and MFA studies suffer from narrow system boundaries, failing to fully illustrate relative anthropogenic and natural flow magnitude and the degree to which human activity has perturbed the natural cycling of elements. We discuss important interconnections between natural and anthropogenic cycles and relevant EU raw material dossiers. Increased integration of both cycles could help to better capture the transport and fate of elements in nature including their environmental/human health impacts, highlight potential future material stocks in the anthroposphere (in-use stocks) and in nature (e.g., in soils, tailings, or mining wastes), and estimate anticipated emissions of TCEs to nature in the future (based on dynamic stock modeling). A preliminary assessment of natural versus anthropogenic element fluxes indicates that anthropogenic fluxes induced by the EU-28 of palladium, platinum, and antimony (as a result of materials uses) might be greater than the respective global natural fluxes. Increased combination of MFA and natural cycle data at EU level could help to derive more complete material cycles and initiate a discussion between the research communities of biogeochemists and material flow analysts to more holistically address the issues of sustainable resource management. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All

The anthropogenic perturbation of the marine nitrogen cycle by atmospheric deposition: Nitrogen cycle feedbacks and the 15N Haber-Bosch effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Simon; Gruber, Nicolas

2016-10-01

Over the last 100 years, anthropogenic emissions have led to a strong increase of atmospheric nitrogen deposition over the ocean, yet the resulting impacts and feedbacks are neither well understood nor quantified. To this end, we run a suite of simulations with the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model v1.2 forced with five scenarios of nitrogen deposition over the period from 1850 through 2100, while keeping all other forcings unchanged. Even though global oceanic net primary production increases little in response to this fertilization, the higher export and the resulting expansion of the oxygen minimum zones cause an increase in pelagic and benthic denitrification and burial by about 5%. In addition, the enhanced availability of fixed nitrogen in the surface ocean reduces global ocean N2 fixation by more than 10%. Despite the compensating effects through these negative feedbacks that eliminate by the year 2000 about 60% of the deposited nitrogen, the anthropogenic nitrogen input forced the upper ocean N budget into an imbalance of between 9 and 22 Tg N yr-1 depending on the deposition scenario. The excess nitrogen accumulates to highly detectable levels and causes in most areas a distinct negative trend in the δ15N of the oceanic fixed nitrogen pools—a trend we refer to as the 15N Haber-Bosch effect. Changes in surface nitrate utilization and the nitrogen feedbacks induce further changes in the δ15N of NO3-, making it a good but complex recorder of the overall impact of the changes in atmospheric deposition.

Effects of aerosol from biomass burning on the global radiation budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Penner, Joyce E.; Dickinson, Robert E.; O'Neill, Christine A.

1992-01-01

An analysis is made of the likely contribution of smoke particles from biomass burning to the global radiation balance. These particles act to reflect solar radiation directly; they also can act as cloud condensation nuclei, increasing the reflectivity of clouds. Together these effects, although uncertain, may add up globally to a cooling effect as large as 2 watts per square meter, comparable to the estimated contribution to sulfate aerosols. Anthropogenic increases of smoke emission thus may have helped weaken the net greenhouse warming from anthropogenic trace gases.

The Effects of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change on Global and Regional Climate in the Preindustrial Holocene: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, J. O.

2014-12-01

The recent development of anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) scenarios that cover all or part of the preindustrial Holocene (11,700 BP to ~AD 1850) has led to a number of modelling studies on the impacts of land cover change on climate, using both GCMs and regional climate models. Because most ALCC scenarios arrive at similar estimates of anthropogenic deforestation by the late preindustrial, most models agree that the net biogeophysical effect of ALCC by AD 1850 is regional cooling at mid- to high-latitudes and warming and drying over the tropics and subtropics. In particular, tropical deforestation appears to lead to local amplification of externally forced drought cycles, e.g., from ENSO. The spatial extent of these climate changes varies between models because the choice of ALCC scenario leads to large differences in the initial forcing. Those model studies that considered biogeochemical feedbacks show that the importance of preindustrial CO2 emissions ranges from being insignificant to larger than the global biogeophysical feedback, depending on assumptions made about potential natural atmospheric CO2 at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. While the net magnitude of deforestation is similar among ALCC scenarios at AD 1850, the timing of deforestation varies widely, which, in addition to affecting the inferred importance of biogeochemical feedbacks, leads to large differences in the estimated importance of ALCC on climate earlier in the Holocene. For example, modelling experiments performed on Europe and the Mediterranean representing conditions at the peak of the Roman Empire or in Mesoamerica for the Classic Maya period show large differences in the estimated importance of the biogeophysical feedback to regional climate depending on the ALCC scenario used. The wide variety of results gained so far from ALCC and climate modelling experiments shows that the question of "how much did humans influence the state of the Earth System before the

Impact of Anthropogenic Disturbance on Native and Invasive Trypanosomes of Rodents in Forested Uganda.

PubMed

Salzer, Johanna S; Pinto, C Miguel; Grippi, Dylan C; Williams-Newkirk, Amanda Jo; Peterhans, Julian Kerbis; Rwego, Innocent B; Carroll, Darin S; Gillespie, Thomas R

2016-12-01

Habitat disturbance and anthropogenic change are globally associated with extinctions and invasive species introductions. Less understood is the impact of environmental change on the parasites harbored by endangered, extinct, and introduced species. To improve our understanding of the impacts of anthropogenic disturbance on such host-parasite interactions, we investigated an invasive trypanosome (Trypanosoma lewisi). We screened 348 individual small mammals, representing 26 species, from both forested and non-forested habitats in rural Uganda. Using microscopy and PCR, we identified 18% of individuals (order Rodentia) as positive for trypanosomes. Further phylogenetic analyses revealed two trypanosomes circulating-T. lewisi and T. varani. T. lewisi was found in seven species both native and invasive, while T. varani was identified in only three native forest species. The lack of T. varani in non-forested habitats suggests that it is a natural parasite of forest-dwelling rodents. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic disturbance may lead to spillover of an invasive parasite (T. lewisi) from non-native to native species, and lead to local co-extinction of a native parasite (T. varani) and native forest-dwelling hosts.

Asian anthropogenic dust and its climate effect (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Liu, J.; Chen, B.

2013-12-01

Anthropogenic dust originates mainly from areas of localized human disturbance, such as traffic-on-roads, agricultural fields, grazing, military installations, construction sites, and off-road vehicle areas. To understand historical and possible future changes in dust emissions, the percentage of atmospheric dust load originating from anthropogenic source and its distribution must be quantified. CALIPSO lidar, which shoots a laser into the atmosphere, provides new insight into the detection of anthropogenic dust emission. Here, we present the distribution of Asian anthropogenic dust emissions and its relation to human activity by using CALIPSO lidar measurements. We found that the local anthropogenic dust aerosols account for significant portion of the total dust burden in the atmosphere. The anthropogenic dust emissions mainly occur over the heavy human activity and poor ecosystem region, such as semi-arid region. The impact of Asian anthropogenic dust on regional climate will also be discussed in this talk.

The role of anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction in achieving the Paris Agreement's objective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hienola, Anca; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; O'Donnell, Declan; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Korhonen, Hannele; Laaksonen, Ari

2017-04-01

The Paris agreement reached in December 2015 under the auspices of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims at holding the global temperature increase to well below 2◦C above preindustrial levels and "to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5◦C above preindustrial levels". Limiting warming to any level implies that the total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the dominant driver of long-term temperatures - that can ever be emitted into the atmosphere is finite. Essentially, this means that global CO2 emissions need to become net zero. CO2 is not the only pollutant causing warming, although it is the most persistent. Short-lived, non-CO2 climate forcers also must also be considered. Whereas much effort has been put into defining a threshold for temperature increase and zero net carbon emissions, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the non-CO2 climate forcers, including not just the non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halocarbons etc.) but also the anthropogenic aerosols like black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulfate. This study investigates the possibility of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5◦C by the end of the century under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions simulated with the very simplistic MAGICC climate carbon cycle model as well as with ECHAM6.1-HAM2.2-SALSA + UVic ESCM. The simulations include two different CO2 scenarios- RCP3PD as control and a CO2 reduction leading to 1.5◦C (which translates into reaching the net zero CO2 emissions by mid 2040s followed by negative emissions by the end of the century); each CO2 scenario includes also two aerosol pollution control cases denoted with CLE (current legislation) and MFR (maximum feasible reduction). The main result of the above scenarios is that the stronger the anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction is, the more significant the temperature increase by 2100 relative to pre

Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years

PubMed Central

Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato

2008-01-01

The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO2 and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO2 but from the combination of CO2, CH4, and N2O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years. PMID:18252830

Vulnerability of polar oceans to anthropogenic acidification: comparison of arctic and antarctic seasonal cycles.

PubMed

Shadwick, E H; Trull, T W; Thomas, H; Gibson, J A E

2013-01-01

Polar oceans are chemically sensitive to anthropogenic acidification due to their relatively low alkalinity and correspondingly weak carbonate buffering capacity. Here, we compare unique CO2 system observations covering complete annual cycles at an Arctic (Amundsen Gulf) and Antarctic site (Prydz Bay). The Arctic site experiences greater seasonal warming (10 vs 3°C), and freshening (3 vs 2), has lower alkalinity (2220 vs 2320 μmol/kg), and lower summer pH (8.15 vs 8.5), than the Antarctic site. Despite a larger uptake of inorganic carbon by summer photosynthesis, the Arctic carbon system exhibits smaller seasonal changes than the more alkaline Antarctic system. In addition, the excess surface nutrients in the Antarctic may allow mitigation of acidification, via CO2 removal by enhanced summer production driven by iron inputs from glacial and sea-ice melting. These differences suggest that the Arctic system is more vulnerable to anthropogenic change due to lower alkalinity, enhanced warming, and nutrient limitation.

Vulnerability of Polar Oceans to Anthropogenic Acidification: Comparison of Arctic and Antarctic Seasonal Cycles

PubMed Central

Shadwick, E. H.; Trull, T. W.; Thomas, H.; Gibson, J. A. E.

2013-01-01

Polar oceans are chemically sensitive to anthropogenic acidification due to their relatively low alkalinity and correspondingly weak carbonate buffering capacity. Here, we compare unique CO2 system observations covering complete annual cycles at an Arctic (Amundsen Gulf) and Antarctic site (Prydz Bay). The Arctic site experiences greater seasonal warming (10 vs 3°C), and freshening (3 vs 2), has lower alkalinity (2220 vs 2320 μmol/kg), and lower summer pH (8.15 vs 8.5), than the Antarctic site. Despite a larger uptake of inorganic carbon by summer photosynthesis, the Arctic carbon system exhibits smaller seasonal changes than the more alkaline Antarctic system. In addition, the excess surface nutrients in the Antarctic may allow mitigation of acidification, via CO2 removal by enhanced summer production driven by iron inputs from glacial and sea-ice melting. These differences suggest that the Arctic system is more vulnerable to anthropogenic change due to lower alkalinity, enhanced warming, and nutrient limitation. PMID:23903871

Re-occupancy of breeding territories by ferruginous hawks in Wyoming: Relationships to environmental and anthropogenic factors

Treesearch

Zachary P. Wallace; Patricia L. Kennedy; John R. Squires; Robert J. Oakleaf; Lucretia E. Olson; Katie M. Dugger

2016-01-01

Grassland and shrubland birds are declining globally due in part to anthropogenic habitat modification. Because population performance of these species is also influenced by nonanthropogenic factors, it is important to incorporate all relevant ecological drivers into demographic models.We used design-based sampling and occupancy models to test relationships of...

Anthropogenic Water Uses and River Flow Regime Alterations by Dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrazzi, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

Dams and impoundments have been designed to reconcile the systematic conflict between patterns of anthropogenic water uses and the temporal variability of river flows. Over the past seven decades, population growth and economic development led to a marked increase in the number of these water infrastructures, so that unregulated free-flowing rivers are now rare in developed countries and alterations of the hydrologic cycle at global scale have to be properly considered and characterized. Therefore, improving our understanding of the influence of dams and reservoirs on hydrologic regimes is going to play a key role in water planning and management. In this study, a physically based analytic approach is combined to extensive hydrologic data to investigate natural flow regime alterations downstream of dams in the Central-Eastern United States. These representative case studies span a wide range of different uses, including flood control, water supply and hydropower production. Our analysis reveals that the most evident effects of flood control through dams is a decrease in the intra-seasonal variability of flows, whose extent is controlled by the ratio between the storage capacity for flood control and the average incoming streamflow. Conversely, reservoirs used for water supply lead to an increase of daily streamflow variability and an enhanced inter-catchment heterogeneity. Over the last decades, the supply of fresh water required to sustain human populations has become a major concern at global scale. Accordingly, the number of reservoirs devoted to water supply increased by 50% in the US. This pattern foreshadows a possible shift in the cumulative effect of dams on river flow regimes in terms of inter-catchment homogenization and intra-annual flow variability.

Revised budget for the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sarmiento, J.L.; Sundquist, E.T.

1992-01-01

TRACER-CALIBRATED models of the total uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans give estimates of about 2 gigatonnes carbon per year1, significantly larger than a recent estimate2 of 0.3-0.8 Gt C yr-1 for the synoptic air-to-sea CO2 influx. Although both estimates require that the global CO2 budget must be balanced by a large unknown terrestrial sink, the latter estimate implies a much larger terrestrial sink, and challenges the ocean model calculations on which previous CO2 budgets were based. The discrepancy is due in part to the net flux of carbon to the ocean by rivers and rain, which must be added to the synoptic air-to-sea CO2 flux to obtain the total oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2. Here we estimate the magnitude of this correction and of several other recently proposed adjustments to the synoptic air-sea CO2 exchange. These combined adjustments minimize the apparent inconsistency, and restore estimates of the terrestrial sink to values implied by the modelled oceanic uptake.

Terrestrial nitrogen–carbon cycle interactions at the global scale

PubMed Central

Zaehle, S.

2013-01-01

Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen–carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO2 fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001–2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr−1 (1.9 Pg C yr−1), of which 10 Tg N yr−1 (0.2 Pg C yr−1) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO2 fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen–carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. However, increases of N2O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr−1 per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing. PMID:23713123

Holocene Changes in Land Cover and Greenhouse-gas Concentrations: Rethinking Natural vs Anthropogenic Causation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, C.

2008-12-01

The Holocene has witnessed a switch from a nature-dominated to a human-dominated Earth system. Although globally-significant human impacts (wildfire, megafaunal extinctions) occurred during the late Pleistocene, it was the advent of agriculture that led to the progressive transformation of land cover, and which distinguishes the Holocene from previous interglacial periods. A wide array of data provide clear evidence of local-to-regional human disturbance from ~5 ka BP, in some cases earlier. There is more uncertainty about when the anthropogenic "footprint" became detectable at a global scale, and there has consequently been debate about how much of the pre-industrial increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations is attributable to human causation, linked to processes such as deforestation (CO2) and wet rice cultivation (CH4). Although there has been recent progress in developing quantitative methods for translating pollen data into palaeo-land cover, such as the REVEALS model of Sugita (Holocene 2007) coupled to GIS, this has yet to be widely applied to existing data bases, and most pollen-based land-use reconstructions remain qualitative or semi-quantitative. Lake trophic status, sediment flux / soil erosion, and microcharcoal records of biomass burning provide alternative proxies that integrate regional-scale landscape disturbance. These proxy data along with documentary sources imply that globally-significant changes in land cover occurred prior to ~250 BP which must have altered atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by this time. The polarised debate for and against early anthropogenic impact on global carbon cycling mirrors our industrial-era division between nature and society, both conceptually (e.g. Cartesian dualism) and on the ground (e.g. demarcating land between monoculture agriculture and wilderness). However, for the period before ~1750 AD, this likely represents a false dichotomy, because pre-industrial societies more often formed part

Atmospheric histories and global emissions of the anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons HFC-365mfc, HFC-245fa, HFC-227ea, and HFC-236fa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vollmer, Martin K.; Miller, Benjamin R.; Rigby, Matthew; Reimann, Stefan; Mühle, Jens; Krummel, Paul B.; O'Doherty, Simon; Kim, Jooil; Rhee, Tae Siek; Weiss, Ray F.; Fraser, Paul J.; Simmonds, Peter G.; Salameh, Peter K.; Harth, Christina M.; Wang, Ray H. J.; Steele, L. Paul; Young, Dickon; Lunder, Chris R.; Hermansen, Ove; Ivy, Diane; Arnold, Tim; Schmidbauer, Norbert; Kim, Kyung-Ryul; Greally, Brian R.; Hill, Matthias; Leist, Michael; Wenger, Angelina; Prinn, Ronald G.

2011-04-01

We report on ground-based atmospheric measurements and emission estimates of the four anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) HFC-365mfc (CH3CF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluorobutane), HFC-245fa (CHF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluoropropane), HFC-227ea (CF3CHFCF3, 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane), and HFC-236fa (CF3CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoropropane). In situ measurements are from the global monitoring sites of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), the System for Observations of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases in Europe (SOGE), and Gosan (South Korea). We include the first halocarbon flask sample measurements from the Antarctic research stations King Sejong and Troll. We also present measurements of archived air samples from both hemispheres back to the 1970s. We use a two-dimensional atmospheric transport model to simulate global atmospheric abundances and to estimate global emissions. HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa first appeared in the atmosphere only ˜1 decade ago; they have grown rapidly to globally averaged dry air mole fractions of 0.53 ppt (in parts per trillion, 10-12) and 1.1 ppt, respectively, by the end of 2010. In contrast, HFC-227ea first appeared in the global atmosphere in the 1980s and has since grown to ˜0.58 ppt. We report the first measurements of HFC-236fa in the atmosphere. This long-lived compound was present in the atmosphere at only 0.074 ppt in 2010. All four substances exhibit yearly growth rates of >8% yr-1 at the end of 2010. We find rapidly increasing emissions for the foam-blowing compounds HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa starting in ˜2002. After peaking in 2006 (HFC-365mfc: 3.2 kt yr-1, HFC-245fa: 6.5 kt yr-1), emissions began to decline. Our results for these two compounds suggest that recent estimates from long-term projections (to the late 21st century) have strongly overestimated emissions for the early years of the projections (˜2005-2010). Global HFC-227ea and HFC-236fa emissions have grown to average values of 2.4 kt yr-1

Potential effects of anthropogenic nitrogen on northern Indian Ocean nitrous oxide emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamora, L. M.; Suntharalingam, P.; Bange, H. W.; Bikkina, S.; Resplandy, L.; Sarin, M.; Schmidtko, S.; Seitzinger, S.; Singh, A.

2016-02-01

The North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea + Bay of Bengal) accounts for 20-30% of the oceanic emissions of the greenhouse gas, nitrous oxide (N2O). The marine N2O cycle in the suboxic and anoxic waters of this region is very sensitive to relatively small shifts in ambient oxygen (O2); as O2 decreases, N2O production is progressively enhanced and subject to non-linear nitrogen (N) cycle dynamics. Thus, small, sustained changes in local O2 levels (e.g., < 5-10 mmol L-1) may result in detectable impacts on N2O emissions from the North Indian Ocean. Some recent data suggest that O2 may be declining in the already O2-impoverished Arabian Sea. While the reasons for these possible O2 declines are not fully understood, increasing anthropogenic N inputs from atmospheric and riverine sources likely contribute. In this study we bring together a combination of atmospheric deposition models, in situ measurements, and output from the NEWS riverine model to evaluate recent changes in nitrogen nutrient input to the Arabian Sea. We estimate that there has been a twofold increase in N loading from anthropogenic atmospheric deposition and river runoff to the North Indian Ocean during recent decades. To better understand how anthropogenic N increases might affect regional N2O emissions, we also present analysis of historical N2O and O2 measurements from the North Indian Ocean along with estimates of O2 and N2O fluxes from a regional marine biogeochemical model. We find that as in the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal O2 is also likely decreasing. However, due to the paucity of data, we are not yet able to estimate the role of anthropogenic N or how these changes might affect Bay of Bengal N2O emissions. While uncertainties are also high in the Arabian Sea, our preliminary results suggest that increases in atmospheric N deposition are enhancing regional N2O production.

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

A tiered observational system for anthropogenic methane emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duren, R. M.; Miller, C. E.; Hulley, G. C.; Hook, S. J.; Sander, S. P.

2014-12-01

Improved understanding of anthropogenic methane emissions is required for closing the global carbon budget and addressing priority challenges in climate policy. Several decades of top-down and bottom-up studies show that anthropogenic methane emissions are systematically underestimated in key regions and economic sectors. These uncertainties have been compounded by the dramatic rise of disruptive technologies (e.g., the transformation in the US energy system due to unconventional gas and oil production). Methane flux estimates derived from inverse analyses and aircraft-based mass balance approaches underscore the disagreement in nationally and regionally reported methane emissions as well as the possibility of a long-tail distribution in fugitive emissions spanning the US natural gas supply chain; i.e. a small number of super-emitters may be responsible for most of the observed anomalies. Other studies highlight the challenges of sectoral and spatial attribution of fugitive emissions - including the relative contributions of dairies vs oil and gas production or disentangling the contributions of natural gas transmission, distribution, and consumption or landfill emissions in complex urban environments. Limited observational data remains a foundational barrier to resolving these challenges. We present a tiered observing system strategy for persistent, high-frequency monitoring over large areas to provide remote detection, geolocation and quantification of significant anthropogenic methane emissions across cities, states, basins and continents. We describe how this would both improve confidence in methane emission estimates and expedite resolution of fugitive emissions and leaks. We summarize recent prototype field campaigns that employ multiple vantage points and measurement techniques (including NASA's CARVE and HyTES aircraft and PanFTS instrument on Mt Wilson). We share preliminary results of this tiered observational approach including examples of individual

Enhanced Global Signal of Neutral Hydrogen Due to Excess Radiation at Cosmic Dawn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Chang; Holder, Gilbert

2018-05-01

We revisit the global 21 cm signal calculation incorporating a possible radio background at early times, and find that the global 21 cm signal shows a much stronger absorption feature, which could enhance detection prospects for future 21 cm experiments. In light of recent reports of a possible low-frequency excess radio background, we propose that detailed 21 cm calculations should include a possible early radio background.

Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.

PubMed

Liu, Jian; Wang, Bin; Cane, Mark A; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi

2013-01-31

As a result of global warming, precipitation is likely to increase in high latitudes and the tropics and to decrease in already dry subtropical regions. The absolute magnitude and regional details of such changes, however, remain intensely debated. As is well known from El Niño studies, sea-surface-temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean can strongly influence global rainfall. Palaeoproxy evidence indicates that the difference between the warm west Pacific and the colder east Pacific increased in past periods when the Earth warmed as a result of increased solar radiation. In contrast, in most model projections of future greenhouse warming this gradient weakens. It has not been clear how to reconcile these two findings. Here we show in climate model simulations that the tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature gradient increases when the warming is due to increased solar radiation and decreases when it is due to increased greenhouse-gas forcing. For the same global surface temperature increase the latter pattern produces less rainfall, notably over tropical land, which explains why in the model the late twentieth century is warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period (around AD 1000-1250) but precipitation is less. This difference is consistent with the global tropospheric energy budget, which requires a balance between the latent heat released in precipitation and radiative cooling. The tropospheric cooling is less for increased greenhouse gases, which add radiative absorbers to the troposphere, than for increased solar heating, which is concentrated at the Earth's surface. Thus warming due to increased greenhouse gases produces a climate signature different from that of warming due to solar radiation changes.

Estimating animal mortality from anthropogenic hazards

EPA Science Inventory

Carcass searches are a common method for studying the risk of anthropogenic hazards to wildlife, including non-target poisoning and collisions with anthropogenic structures. Typically, numbers of carcasses found must be corrected for scavenging rates and imperfect detection. Para...

Anthropogenic selection enhances cancer evolution in Tasmanian devil tumours.

PubMed

Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Swift, Kate; Hodson, Pamela; Hua, Bobby; Pyecroft, Stephen; Taylor, Robyn; Hamede, Rodrigo; Jones, Menna; Belov, Katherine; Madsen, Thomas

2014-02-01

The Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) provides a unique opportunity to elucidate the long-term effects of natural and anthropogenic selection on cancer evolution. Since first observed in 1996, this transmissible cancer has caused local population declines by >90%. So far, four chromosomal DFTD variants (strains) have been described and karyotypic analyses of 253 tumours showed higher levels of tetraploidy in the oldest strain. We propose that increased ploidy in the oldest strain may have evolved in response to effects of genomic decay observed in asexually reproducing organisms. In this study, we focus on the evolutionary response of DFTD to a disease suppression trial. Tumours collected from devils subjected to the removal programme showed accelerated temporal evolution of tetraploidy compared with tumours from other populations where no increase in tetraploid tumours were observed. As ploidy significantly reduces tumour growth rate, we suggest that the disease suppression trial resulted in selection favouring slower growing tumours mediated by an increased level of tetraploidy. Our study reveals that DFTD has the capacity to rapidly respond to novel selective regimes and that disease eradication may result in novel tumour adaptations, which may further imperil the long-term survival of the world's largest carnivorous marsupial.

Anthropogenic selection enhances cancer evolution in Tasmanian devil tumours

PubMed Central

Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Swift, Kate; Hodson, Pamela; Hua, Bobby; Pyecroft, Stephen; Taylor, Robyn; Hamede, Rodrigo; Jones, Menna; Belov, Katherine; Madsen, Thomas

2014-01-01

The Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) provides a unique opportunity to elucidate the long-term effects of natural and anthropogenic selection on cancer evolution. Since first observed in 1996, this transmissible cancer has caused local population declines by >90%. So far, four chromosomal DFTD variants (strains) have been described and karyotypic analyses of 253 tumours showed higher levels of tetraploidy in the oldest strain. We propose that increased ploidy in the oldest strain may have evolved in response to effects of genomic decay observed in asexually reproducing organisms. In this study, we focus on the evolutionary response of DFTD to a disease suppression trial. Tumours collected from devils subjected to the removal programme showed accelerated temporal evolution of tetraploidy compared with tumours from other populations where no increase in tetraploid tumours were observed. As ploidy significantly reduces tumour growth rate, we suggest that the disease suppression trial resulted in selection favouring slower growing tumours mediated by an increased level of tetraploidy. Our study reveals that DFTD has the capacity to rapidly respond to novel selective regimes and that disease eradication may result in novel tumour adaptations, which may further imperil the long-term survival of the world's largest carnivorous marsupial. PMID:24567746

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

2007-01-01

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the

The effect of anthropogenic emissions corrections on the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, B. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Mills, R. T.; Erickson, D. J.; Blasing, T. J.

2009-12-01

A previous study (Erickson et al. 2008) approximated the monthly global emission estimates of anthropogenic CO2 by applying a 2-harmonic Fourier expansion with coefficients as a function of latitude to annual CO2 flux estimates derived from United States data (Blasing et al. 2005) that were extrapolated globally. These monthly anthropogenic CO2 flux estimates were used to model atmospheric concentrations using the NASA GEOS-4 data assimilation system. Local variability in the amplitude of the simulated CO2 seasonal cycle were found to be on the order of 2-6 ppmv. Here we used the same Fourier expansion to seasonally adjust the global annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions from the SRES A2 scenario. For a total of four simulations, both the annual and seasonalized fluxes were advected in two configurations of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) used in the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP). One configuration used the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) coupled with the CASA‧ (carbon only) biogeochemistry model and the other used CLM coupled with the CN (coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles) biogeochemistry model. All four simulations were forced with observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre and a prescribed transient atmospheric CO2 concentration for the radiation and land forcing over the 20th century. The model results exhibit differences in the seasonal cycle of CO2 between the seasonally corrected and uncorrected simulations. Moreover, because of differing energy and water feedbacks between the atmosphere model and the two land biogeochemistry models, features of the CO2 seasonal cycle were different between these two model configurations. This study reinforces previous findings that suggest that regional near-surface atmospheric CO2 concentrations depend strongly on the natural sources and sinks of CO2, but also on the strength of local anthropogenic CO2 emissions and geographic position. This work further

Global Source-Receptor Relationships for Mercury Deposition Under Present-Day and 2050 Emissions Scenarios

PubMed Central

Corbitt, Elizabeth S.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Holmes, Christopher D.; Streets, David G.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

2011-01-01

Global policies regulating anthropogenic mercury require an understanding of the relationship between emitted and deposited mercury on intercontinental scales. Here we examine source-receptor relationships for present-day conditions and for four 2050 IPCC scenarios encompassing a range of economic development and environmental regulation projections. We use the GEOS-Chem global model to track mercury from its point of emission through rapid cycling in surface ocean and land reservoirs to its accumulation in longer-lived ocean and soil pools. Deposited mercury has a local component (emitted HgII, lifetime of 3.7 days against deposition) and a global component (emitted Hg0, lifetime of 6 months against deposition). Fast recycling of deposited mercury through photoreduction of HgII and re-emission of Hg0 from surface reservoirs (ice, land, surface ocean) increases the effective lifetime of anthropogenic mercury to 9 months against loss to legacy reservoirs (soil pools and the subsurface ocean). This lifetime is still sufficiently short that source-receptor relationships have a strong hemispheric signature. Asian emissions are the largest source of anthropogenic deposition to all ocean basins, though there is also regional source influence from upwind continents. Current anthropogenic emissions account for only about one-third of mercury deposition to the global ocean with the remainder from natural and legacy sources. However, controls on anthropogenic emissions would have the added benefit of reducing the legacy mercury re-emitted to the atmosphere. Better understanding is needed of the timescales for transfer of mercury from active pools to stable geochemical reservoirs. PMID:22050654

Limited effect of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides on secondary organic aerosol formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Unger, N.; Hodzic, A.; Emmons, L.; Knote, C.; Tilmes, S.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Yu, P.

2015-12-01

Globally, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is mostly formed from emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by vegetation, but it can be modified by human activities as demonstrated in recent research. Specifically, nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) have been shown to play a critical role in the chemical formation of low volatility compounds. We have updated the SOA scheme in the global NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Atmospheric Model version 4 with chemistry (CAM4-chem) by implementing a 4-product volatility basis set (VBS) scheme, including NOx-dependent SOA yields and aging parameterizations. Small differences are found for the no-aging VBS and 2-product schemes; large increases in SOA production and the SOA-to-OA ratio are found for the aging scheme. The predicted organic aerosol amounts capture both the magnitude and distribution of US surface annual mean measurements from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network by 50 %, and the simulated vertical profiles are within a factor of 2 compared to aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements from 13 aircraft-based field campaigns across different regions and seasons. We then perform sensitivity experiments to examine how the SOA loading responds to a 50 % reduction in anthropogenic nitric oxide (NO) emissions in different regions. We find limited SOA reductions of 0.9-5.6, 6.4-12.0 and 0.9-2.8 % for global, southeast US and Amazon NOx perturbations, respectively. The fact that SOA formation is almost unaffected by changes in NOx can be largely attributed to a limited shift in chemical regime, to buffering in chemical pathways (low- and high-NOx pathways, O3 versus NO3-initiated oxidation) and to offsetting tendencies in the biogenic versus anthropogenic SOA responses.

Limited effect of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides on secondary organic aerosol formation

DOE PAGES

Zheng, Y.; Unger, N.; Hodzic, A.; ...

2015-12-08

Globally, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is mostly formed from emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by vegetation, but it can be modified by human activities as demonstrated in recent research. Specifically, nitrogen oxides (NO x = NO + NO 2) have been shown to play a critical role in the chemical formation of low volatility compounds. We have updated the SOA scheme in the global NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Atmospheric Model version 4 with chemistry (CAM4-chem) by implementing a 4-product volatility basis set (VBS) scheme, including NO x-dependent SOA yields and aging parameterizations. Small differences aremore » found for the no-aging VBS and 2-product schemes; large increases in SOA production and the SOA-to-OA ratio are found for the aging scheme. The predicted organic aerosol amounts capture both the magnitude and distribution of US surface annual mean measurements from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network by 50 %, and the simulated vertical profiles are within a factor of 2 compared to aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements from 13 aircraft-based field campaigns across different regions and seasons. We then perform sensitivity experiments to examine how the SOA loading responds to a 50 % reduction in anthropogenic nitric oxide (NO) emissions in different regions. We find limited SOA reductions of 0.9–5.6, 6.4–12.0 and 0.9–2.8 % for global, southeast US and Amazon NO x perturbations, respectively. The fact that SOA formation is almost unaffected by changes in NO x can be largely attributed to a limited shift in chemical regime, to buffering in chemical pathways (low- and high-NO x pathways, O 3 versus NO 3-initiated oxidation) and to offsetting tendencies in the biogenic versus anthropogenic SOA responses.« less

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

The Global Distribution and Drivers of Alien Bird Species Richness

PubMed Central

Dyer, Ellie E.; Cassey, Phillip; Redding, David W.; Collen, Ben; Franks, Victoria; Gaston, Kevin J.; Jones, Kate E.; Kark, Salit; Orme, C. David L.; Blackburn, Tim M.

2017-01-01

Alien species are a major component of human-induced environmental change. Variation in the numbers of alien species found in different areas is likely to depend on a combination of anthropogenic and environmental factors, with anthropogenic factors affecting the number of species introduced to new locations, and when, and environmental factors influencing how many species are able to persist there. However, global spatial and temporal variation in the drivers of alien introduction and species richness remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse an extensive new database of alien birds to explore what determines the global distribution of alien species richness for an entire taxonomic class. We demonstrate that the locations of origin and introduction of alien birds, and their identities, were initially driven largely by European (mainly British) colonialism. However, recent introductions are a wider phenomenon, involving more species and countries, and driven in part by increasing economic activity. We find that, globally, alien bird species richness is currently highest at midlatitudes and is strongly determined by anthropogenic effects, most notably the number of species introduced (i.e., “colonisation pressure”). Nevertheless, environmental drivers are also important, with native and alien species richness being strongly and consistently positively associated. Our results demonstrate that colonisation pressure is key to understanding alien species richness, show that areas of high native species richness are not resistant to colonisation by alien species at the global scale, and emphasise the likely ongoing threats to global environments from introductions of species. PMID:28081142

Arctic antibiotic resistance gene contamination, a result of anthropogenic activities and natural origin.

PubMed

Tan, Lu; Li, Linyun; Ashbolt, Nicholas; Wang, Xiaolong; Cui, Yuxiao; Zhu, Xiao; Xu, Yan; Yang, Yang; Mao, Daqing; Luo, Yi

2018-04-15

The increasing global prevalence of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in the environment is attributed to anthropogenic activities, particularly the misuse of antimicrobial drugs in human care and animal production. In the present study, we first examined Arctic/sub-Arctic (polar) sediments for the abundance and diversity of 30 ARGs against sulfonamide, tetracycline, aminoglycoside, quinolone, macrolide, and β-lactam antibiotics. Polar sediment ARGs were detected by qPCR at relatively low levels (10 -9 to 10 -5 copies/16S rRNA gene copies) compared to the reference sites, which were heavily impacted regions of China (the Haihe River, the Tianjin Water Park water and the Qilihai Wetland water, at 10 -8 to 10 -2 copies/16S rRNA gene copies). A human mitochondrial gene target, Hmt, was first used to aid in the identification of ARGs associated with anthropogenic activities, being relatively persistent, in high copy number and a human-specific molecular marker. Hmt was consistently present in easily quantifiable amounts in the polar sediment samples, indicating their relationship with human-impact, and it was also positively correlated with the relative abundance of ARGs and to the concentrations of modern-day antibiotics. Phylogenetic analyses of resistance sequences from both the Arctic marine sediments and a major database of human pathogens indicated that the ARGs in polar region were the result of a mix of human influence and natural origins. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show that ARGs in Arctic marine sediments appear to be a mixture of both natural origins and recent human influence. This study provides a significant reference regarding the global reach of antibiotic resistance, which is associated with anthropogenic activities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time series analysis of hydrological drought under climate change with anthropogenic water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, Y.; Yoshimura, K.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Oki, T.

2014-12-01

Human society have altered terrestrial hydrological cycles by water management infrastructure, such as reservoirs and weirs for irrigation, in order to enable stable water use against natural variability. On the other hand, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter the hydro-meteorological cycles, and it is projected that drought frequency and/or intensity will increase in some regions. Thus reliable projection is a critical issue for our society in order to adapt for the change. However, only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic intervention on drought under climate change. This study focuses on hydrological drought, particularly on stream flow, as stream flow is one of the most easy-to-access water resource. HiGW-MAT, a state of arts land surface model capable to reproduce energy and water cycle considering the anthropogenic water management, is used to simulate the historical and future terrestrial water cycles. The model includes reservoir operation, water withdrawal and irrigation process. Five CMIP5 GCM outputs with bias-correction provided by ISI-MIP for 1980-2099 are used to force a set of simulations. Time series data of global hydrological drought for 120 years, with and without human activity, is analyzed in order to estimate the impact of climate change and the adaptation capacity of anthropogenic water management. It is identified that Europe, Central and Eastern Asia, East and West part of USA, Chile, Amazon basin and Congo basin will have large increases of drought more than 90 days. According to uncertainty check particular increases in Central USA and Southern and Eastern South America have high robustness. Dividing global land into 26 regions, we characterized the variation of drought time series for each region. Drought does not show abrupt change and show almost linear increase in many regions. Also, it is found that human activity effectively reduces the increasing rate and suppresses the natural variability under

Tropical Tree Trait Diversity Enhances Forest Biomass Resilience in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakschewski, B.; Kirsten, T.; von Bloh, W.; Poorter, L.; Pena-Claros, M.; Boit, A.

2016-12-01

Functional diversity of ecosystems has been found to increase ecosystem functions and therefore enhance ecosystem resilience against environmental stressors. However, global carbon-cycle and biosphere models still classify the global vegetation into a relatively small number of distinct plant functional types (PFT) with constant features over space and time. Therefore, those models might underestimate the resilience and adaptive capacity of natural vegetation under climate change by ignoring positive effects that functional diversity might bring about. We diversified a set a of selected tree traits in a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL). In the new subversion, called LPJmL-FIT, Amazon region biomass stocks and forest structure appear significantly more resilient against climate change. Enhanced tree trait diversity enables the simulated rainforests to adjust to new environmental conditions via ecological sorting. These results may stimulate a new debate on the value of biodiversity for climate change mitigation.

Increasing anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine DIN exports from the Changjiang River basin under changing human pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Weijin; Mayorga, Emilio; Li, Xinyan; Seitzinger, Sybil P.; Bouwman, A. F.

2010-12-01

In this paper, we estimate the inputs of nitrogen (N) and exports of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from the Changjiang River to the estuary for the period 1970-2003, by using the global NEWS-DIN model. Modeled DIN yields range from 260 kg N km-2 yr-1 in 1970 to 895 kg N km-2 yr-1 in 2003, with an increasing trend. The study demonstrated a varied contribution of different N inputs to river DIN yields during the period 1970-2003. Chemical fertilizer and manure together contributed about half of the river DIN yields, while atmospheric N deposition contributed an average of 21% of DIN yields in the period 1970-2003. Biological N fixation contributed 40% of DIN yields in 1970, but substantially decreased to 13% in 2003. Point sewage N input also showed a decreasing trend in contribution to DIN yields, with an average of 8% over the whole period. We also discuss possible future trajectories of DIN export based on the Global NEWS implementation of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios. Our result indicates that anthropogenically enhanced N inputs dominate and will continue to dominate river DIN yields under changing human pressures in the basin. Therefore, nitrogen pollution is and will continue to be a great challenge to China.

Composition, Distribution and Abundance of Anthropogenic Marine Debris in Northwest Atlantic Submarine Canyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyl, T. P.; Nizinski, M. S.; Kinlan, B. P.; Shank, T. M.

2016-02-01

Submarine canyons are important productive habitats in the deep-sea, as well as downslope conduits for transporting sediment and organic material that enhances local and regional species diversity, including species and ecosystems vulnerable to anthropogenic activities. In 2012 and 2013, we documented and characterized deep-sea coral and sponge ecosystems in virtually unexplored northeast and mid-Atlantic canyons using WHOI's TowCam towed imaging system on the FSV Bigelow. Specifically, thirty-eight digital image TowCam surveys were completed in 10 canyons, with more than 91,000 images documenting not only deep-sea coral and sponge ecosystems and habitat features, but also anthropogenic debris. Canyons surveyed cover most of the latitudinal range of the northeast US region and include Toms Canyon complex, Ryan, Veatch, Gilbert, Powell, and Munson canyons. Each of these canyon hosted debris across depths of 550 to 2100m, consisting mostly of fisheries equipment, including fishing lines, traps, and nets. Potentially-land-based debris (e.g., plastic bags and magazines) was also present in all canyons surveyed. These substrates likely enhance colonization and often served as habitat for specific sessile and mobile species. Comparisons of debris in these canyons revealed depth-related differences, likely due to offshore extent of fishing activities, and will be compared to density and abundances of other deep-sea environments. The occurrence of anthropogenic debris on Northeast US canyon floors suggests major sources via transport ship and fishing-related activities and perhaps the rapid transport of debris through near-shore zones and entrainment in bottom currents.

Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the Next Glacial Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero, C.; García-Olivares, A.; Pelegrí, J. L.

2014-12-01

A simple relaxation-type model (García-Olivares and Herrero, 2013) based on an optimization of Paillard and Parrenin (2004), has been used to predict the future evolution of atmospheric CO2, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr, with and without the atmospheric CO2 perturbation caused by anthropogenic emissions.The initial atmospheric CO2 condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources, with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. This analysis sets a peak of emissions on year 2037 AD and a maximum CO2 concentration of 519 ppmv in 2300 AD, leading to 20 kyr of abnormally high greenhouse effect. Weathering compensation and emission of methane from clathrates have also been considered as they have relevant effects on the dynamics of the system after the perturbation.The anthropogenic CO2 pulse clearly perturbs the natural cycle for all model variables during the forthcoming 300 kyr. The present interglacial will be lengthen by 25 kyr, as the anthropogenic perturbation will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf and a consequent perturbation of the deep ocean stratification, so the relative maximum of boreal insolation 65 kyr AP will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation. The next glacial maximum will take place about 105 kyr AP and the following interglacial will be delayed forward in time by 44 kyr in relation to unperturbed conditions.This study endorses the idea that relaxation type coupled models, despite their simple structure, may retain the principal Earth's climatic interactions, being capable of accounting for the natural evolution of an externally imposed atmospheric CO2 pulse. - Garcia-Olivares, A

Attributing Human Mortality During Extreme Heat Waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, D.; Heaviside, C.; Vardoulakis, S.; Huntingford, C.; Masato, G.; Guillod, B. P.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Bowery, A.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century (Costello et al, 2009; Watts et al, 2015). Perhaps one of the clearest examples of this is the summer heat wave of 2003, which saw up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe (Robine et al, 2007). The extreme temperatures are now thought to be significantly enhanced due to anthropogenic climate change (Stott et al, 2004; Christidis et al, 2015). Here, we consider not only the Europe-wide temperature response of the heat wave, but the localised response using a high-resolution regional model simulating 2003 climate conditions thousands of times. For the first time, by employing end-to-end attribution, we attribute changes in mortality to the increased radiative forcing from climate change, with a specific focus on London and Paris. We show that in both cities, a sizable proportion of the excess mortality can be attributed to human emissions. With European heat waves projected to increase into the future, these results provide a worrying reality for what may lie ahead. Christidis, Nikolaos, Gareth S. Jones, and Peter A. Stott. "Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave." Nature Climate Change (2014). Costello, Anthony, et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373.9676 (2009): 1693-1733. Stott, Peter A., Dáithí A. Stone, and Myles R. Allen. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003." Nature 432.7017 (2004): 610-614 Watts, N., et al. "Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health." Lancet. 2015.

MAC-v1: A new global aerosol climatology for climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinne, Stefan; O'Donnel, Declan; Stier, Philip; Kloster, Silvia; Zhang, Kai; Schmidt, Hauke; Rast, Sebastian; Giorgetta, Marco; Eck, Tom F.; Stevens, Bjorn

2013-12-01

The Max-Planck-Institute Aerosol Climatology version 1 (MAC-v1) is introduced. It describes the optical properties of tropospheric aerosols on monthly timescales and with global coverage at a spatial resolution of 1° in latitude and longitude. By providing aerosol radiative properties for any wavelength of the solar (or shortwave) and of the terrestrial (or longwave) radiation spectrum, as needed in radiative transfer applications, this MAC-v1 data set lends itself to simplified and computationally efficient representations of tropospheric aerosol in climate studies. Estimates of aerosol radiative properties are provided for both total and anthropogenic aerosol in annual time steps from preindustrial times (i.e., starting with year 1860) well into the future (until the year 2100). Central to the aerosol climatology is the merging of monthly statistics of aerosol optical properties for current (year 2000) conditions. Hereby locally sparse but trusted high-quality data by ground-based sun-photometer networks are merged onto complete background maps defined by central data from global modeling with complex aerosol modules. This merging yields 0.13 for the global annual midvisible aerosol optical depth (AOD), with 0.07 attributed to aerosol sizes larger than 1 µm in diameter and 0.06 of attributed to aerosol sizes smaller than 1 µm in diameter. Hereby larger particles are less absorbing with a single scattering albedo (SSA) of 0.98 compared to 0.93 for smaller sizes. Simulation results of a global model are applied to prescribe the vertical distribution and to estimate anthropogenic contributions to the smaller size AOD as a function of time, with a 0.037 value for current conditions. In a demonstration application, the associated aerosol direct radiative effects are determined. For current conditions, total aerosol is estimated to reduce the combined shortwave and longwave net-flux balance at the top of the atmosphere by about -1.6 W/m2 from which -0.5 W/m2 (with

Complex anthropogenic sources of platinum group elements in aerosols on Cape Cod, USA.

PubMed

Sen, Indra S; Peucker-Ehrenbrink, Bernhard; Geboy, Nicholas

2013-09-17

Platinum group elements (PGE) of anthropogenic origin have been reported in rainwater, snow, roadside soil and vegetation, industrial waste, and urban airborne particles around the world. As recent studies have shown that PGE are bioavailable in the environment and pose health risks at chronic levels, the extent of PGE pollution is of global concern. In this study, we report PGE concentrations and osmium isotope ((187)Os/(188)Os) ratios of airborne particles (particulate matter, PM10) collected in Woods Hole, a small coastal village on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, U.S.A. The sampling site is more than 100 km away from the nearest urban centers (Boston, Providence) and has no large industrial emission center within a 30 km radius. The study reveals that, although PGE concentrations in rural airborne particulate matter are orders of magnitude lower than in urban aerosols, 69% of the total osmium is of anthropogenic origin. Anthropogenic PGE signatures in airborne particles are thus not restricted to large cities with high traffic flows and substantial industries; they can also be found in rural environments. We further conclude that the combination of Pt/Rh concentration ratios and (187)Os/(188)Os composition can be used to trace PGE sources. The Pt/Rh and (187)Os/(188)Os composition of Woods Hole aerosols indicate that the anthropogenic PGE fraction is primarily sourced from ore smelting processes, with possible minor contributions from fossil fuel burning and automobile catalyst-derived materials. Our results further substantiate the use of (187)Os/(188)Os in source apportionment studies on continental scales.

Reduced anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing caused by biogenic new particle formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, Hamish; Sengupta, Kamalika; Rap, Alexandru; Duplissy, Jonathan; Frege, Carla; Williamson, Christina; Heinritzi, Martin; Simon, Mario; Yan, Chao; Almeida, João; Tröstl, Jasmin; Nieminen, Tuomo; Ortega, Ismael K.; Wagner, Robert; Dunne, Eimear M.; Adamov, Alexey; Amorim, Antonio; Bernhammer, Anne-Kathrin; Bianchi, Federico; Breitenlechner, Martin; Brilke, Sophia; Chen, Xuemeng; Craven, Jill S.; Dias, Antonio; Ehrhart, Sebastian; Fischer, Lukas; Flagan, Richard C.; Franchin, Alessandro; Fuchs, Claudia; Guida, Roberto; Hakala, Jani; Hoyle, Christopher R.; Jokinen, Tuija; Junninen, Heikki; Kangasluoma, Juha; Kim, Jaeseok; Kirkby, Jasper; Krapf, Manuel; Kürten, Andreas; Laaksonen, Ari; Lehtipalo, Katrianne; Makhmutov, Vladimir; Mathot, Serge; Molteni, Ugo; Monks, Sarah A.; Onnela, Antti; Peräkylä, Otso; Piel, Felix; Petäjä, Tuukka; Praplan, Arnaud P.; Pringle, Kirsty J.; Richards, Nigel A. D.; Rissanen, Matti P.; Rondo, Linda; Sarnela, Nina; Schobesberger, Siegfried; Scott, Catherine E.; Seinfeld, John H.; Sharma, Sangeeta; Sipilä, Mikko; Steiner, Gerhard; Stozhkov, Yuri; Stratmann, Frank; Tomé, Antonio; Virtanen, Annele; Vogel, Alexander Lucas; Wagner, Andrea C.; Wagner, Paul E.; Weingartner, Ernest; Wimmer, Daniela; Winkler, Paul M.; Ye, Penglin; Zhang, Xuan; Hansel, Armin; Dommen, Josef; Donahue, Neil M.; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Baltensperger, Urs; Kulmala, Markku; Curtius, Joachim; Carslaw, Kenneth S.

2016-10-01

The magnitude of aerosol radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic emissions depends on the baseline state of the atmosphere under pristine preindustrial conditions. Measurements show that particle formation in atmospheric conditions can occur solely from biogenic vapors. Here, we evaluate the potential effect of this source of particles on preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and aerosol-cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period. Model simulations show that the pure biogenic particle formation mechanism has a much larger relative effect on CCN concentrations in the preindustrial atmosphere than in the present atmosphere because of the lower aerosol concentrations. Consequently, preindustrial cloud albedo is increased more than under present day conditions, and therefore the cooling forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is reduced. The mechanism increases CCN concentrations by 20-100% over a large fraction of the preindustrial lower atmosphere, and the magnitude of annual global mean radiative forcing caused by changes of cloud albedo since 1750 is reduced by 0.22 W m-2 (27%) to -0.60 W m-2. Model uncertainties, relatively slow formation rates, and limited available ambient measurements make it difficult to establish the significance of a mechanism that has its dominant effect under preindustrial conditions. Our simulations predict more particle formation in the Amazon than is observed. However, the first observation of pure organic nucleation has now been reported for the free troposphere. Given the potentially significant effect on anthropogenic forcing, effort should be made to better understand such naturally driven aerosol processes.

Anthropogenic disturbances jeopardize biodiversity conservation within tropical rainforest reserves.

PubMed

Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Ortiz-Rodríguez, Iván A; Piñero, Daniel; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Sarukhán, José

2016-05-10

Anthropogenic disturbances affecting tropical forest reserves have been documented, but their ecological long-term cumulative effects are poorly understood. Habitat fragmentation and defaunation are two major anthropogenic threats to the integrity of tropical reserves. Based on a long-term (four decades) study, we document how these disturbances synergistically disrupt ecological processes and imperil biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning at Los Tuxtlas, the northernmost tropical rainforest reserve in the Americas. Deforestation around this reserve has reduced the reserve to a medium-sized fragment (640 ha), leading to an increased frequency of canopy-gap formation. In addition, hunting and habitat loss have caused the decline or local extinction of medium and large herbivores. Combining empirical, experimental, and modeling approaches, we support the hypothesis that such disturbances produced a demographic explosion of the long-lived (≈120 y old, maximum height of 7 m) understory palm Astrocaryum mexicanum, whose population has increased from 1,243-4,058 adult individuals per hectare in only 39 y (annual growth rate of ca 3%). Faster gap formation increased understory light availability, enhancing seed production and the growth of immature palms, whereas release from mammalian herbivory and trampling increased survival of seedlings and juveniles. In turn, the palm's demographic explosion was followed by a reduction of tree species diversity, changing forest composition, altering the relative contribution of trees to forest biomass, and disrupting litterfall dynamics. We highlight how indirect anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., palm proliferation) on otherwise protected areas threaten tropical conservation, a phenomenon that is currently eroding the planet's richest repositories of biodiversity.

Anthropogenic disturbances jeopardize biodiversity conservation within tropical rainforest reserves

PubMed Central

Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Ortiz-Rodríguez, Iván A.; Piñero, Daniel; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Sarukhán, José

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic disturbances affecting tropical forest reserves have been documented, but their ecological long-term cumulative effects are poorly understood. Habitat fragmentation and defaunation are two major anthropogenic threats to the integrity of tropical reserves. Based on a long-term (four decades) study, we document how these disturbances synergistically disrupt ecological processes and imperil biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning at Los Tuxtlas, the northernmost tropical rainforest reserve in the Americas. Deforestation around this reserve has reduced the reserve to a medium-sized fragment (640 ha), leading to an increased frequency of canopy-gap formation. In addition, hunting and habitat loss have caused the decline or local extinction of medium and large herbivores. Combining empirical, experimental, and modeling approaches, we support the hypothesis that such disturbances produced a demographic explosion of the long-lived (≈120 y old, maximum height of 7 m) understory palm Astrocaryum mexicanum, whose population has increased from 1,243–4,058 adult individuals per hectare in only 39 y (annual growth rate of ca. 3%). Faster gap formation increased understory light availability, enhancing seed production and the growth of immature palms, whereas release from mammalian herbivory and trampling increased survival of seedlings and juveniles. In turn, the palm’s demographic explosion was followed by a reduction of tree species diversity, changing forest composition, altering the relative contribution of trees to forest biomass, and disrupting litterfall dynamics. We highlight how indirect anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., palm proliferation) on otherwise protected areas threaten tropical conservation, a phenomenon that is currently eroding the planet’s richest repositories of biodiversity. PMID:27071122

Management of Local Stressors Can Improve the Resilience of Marine Canopy Algae to Global Stressors

PubMed Central

Strain, Elisabeth M. A.; van Belzen, Jim; van Dalen, Jeroen; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Airoldi, Laura

2015-01-01

Coastal systems are increasingly threatened by multiple local anthropogenic and global climatic stressors. With the difficulties in remediating global stressors, management requires alternative approaches that focus on local scales. We used manipulative experiments to test whether reducing local stressors (sediment load and nutrient concentrations) can improve the resilience of foundation species (canopy algae along temperate rocky coastlines) to future projected global climate stressors (high wave exposure, increasing sea surface temperature), which are less amenable to management actions. We focused on Fucoids (Cystoseira barbata) along the north-western Adriatic coast in the Mediterranean Sea because of their ecological relevance, sensitivity to a variety of human impacts, and declared conservation priority. At current levels of sediment and nutrients, C. barbata showed negative responses to the simulated future scenarios of high wave exposure and increased sea surface temperature. However, reducing the sediment load increased the survival of C. barbata recruits by 90.24% at high wave exposure while reducing nutrient concentrations resulted in a 20.14% increase in the survival and enhanced the growth of recruited juveniles at high temperature. We conclude that improving water quality by reducing nutrient concentrations, and particularly the sediment load, would significantly increase the resilience of C. barbata populations to projected increases in climate stressors. Developing and applying appropriate targets for specific local anthropogenic stressors could be an effective management action to halt the severe and ongoing loss of key marine habitats. PMID:25807516

Anthropogenic Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gombosi, T. I.; Baker, D. N.; Balogh, A.; Erickson, P. J.; Huba, J. D.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

2017-11-01

Anthropogenic effects on the space environment started in the late 19th century and reached their peak in the 1960s when high-altitude nuclear explosions were carried out by the USA and the Soviet Union. These explosions created artificial radiation belts near Earth that resulted in major damages to several satellites. Another, unexpected impact of the high-altitude nuclear tests was the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that can have devastating effects over a large geographic area (as large as the continental United States). Other anthropogenic impacts on the space environment include chemical release experiments, high-frequency wave heating of the ionosphere and the interaction of VLF waves with the radiation belts. This paper reviews the fundamental physical process behind these phenomena and discusses the observations of their impacts.

Anthropogenic and Volcanic Contributions to the Decadal Variations of Aerosols in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Bian, Huisheng; Aquila, Valentina; Colarco, Peter R.; Tan, Qian; Burrows, John P.; Krotov, Nickolay A.; Vernier, Jean P.; Lu, Zifeng;

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-10-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important

History and future of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reusswig, Fritz

2013-09-01

The article by Cook et al offers an interesting new methodological approach to the debate about (supposedly lacking) scientific consensus on global warming, showing that contrarian claims that there was no such consensus are clearly misleading. But once the attribution issue can be regarded as settled, new questions and controversies arise. They ultimately result from the different technological and organizational pathways towards a new global society model that takes its adverse climate change effects into account and seeks for new, but also risky solutions.

Anthropogenic disturbance homogenizes seagrass fish communities.

PubMed

Iacarella, Josephine C; Adamczyk, Emily; Bowen, Dan; Chalifour, Lia; Eger, Aaron; Heath, William; Helms, Sibylla; Hessing-Lewis, Margot; Hunt, Brian P V; MacInnis, Andrew; O'Connor, Mary I; Robinson, Clifford L K; Yakimishyn, Jennifer; Baum, Julia K

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic activities have led to the biotic homogenization of many ecological communities, yet in coastal systems this phenomenon remains understudied. In particular, activities that locally affect marine habitat-forming foundation species may perturb habitat and promote species with generalist, opportunistic traits, in turn affecting spatial patterns of biodiversity. Here, we quantified fish diversity in seagrass communities across 89 sites spanning 6° latitude along the Pacific coast of Canada, to test the hypothesis that anthropogenic disturbances homogenize (i.e., lower beta-diversity) assemblages within coastal ecosystems. We test for patterns of biotic homogenization at sites within different anthropogenic disturbance categories (low, medium, and high) at two spatial scales (within and across regions) using both abundance- and incidence-based beta-diversity metrics. Our models provide clear evidence that fish communities in high anthropogenic disturbance seagrass areas are homogenized relative to those in low disturbance areas. These results were consistent across within-region comparisons using abundance- and incidence-based measures of beta-diversity, and in across-region comparisons using incidence-based measures. Physical and biotic characteristics of seagrass meadows also influenced fish beta-diversity. Biotic habitat characteristics including seagrass biomass and shoot density were more differentiated among high disturbance sites, potentially indicative of a perturbed environment. Indicator species and trait analyses revealed fishes associated with low disturbance sites had characteristics including stenotopy, lower swimming ability, and egg guarding behavior. Our study is the first to show biotic homogenization of fishes across seagrass meadows within areas of relatively high human impact. These results support the importance of targeting conservation efforts in low anthropogenic disturbance areas across land- and seascapes, as well as managing

Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkhordarian, Armineh; von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Loikith, Paul C.; Mechoso, Carlos R.

2017-10-01

We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983-2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud's lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region.

Tracing Anthropogenic Osmium around Japan using the Osmium Isotopic Composition of Macroalgae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sproson, A. D.; Selby, D. S.; Suzuki, K.

2016-12-01

The present-day open ocean seawater 187Os/188Os value of 1.06 is seen to reflect the balance between unradiogenic mantle derived osmium (Os) and radiogenic continental Os. However, Os released by anthropogenic activities has been detected in coastal sediments, lakes, estuaries, rain and snow from sources such as sewage sludge, catalytic convertors, smelting, fossil fuel burning and use as a staining reagent, thereby impacting the global Os budget. Despite over two decades of research, contemporary Os inputs into the ocean are believed to be underestimated by a factor of 3, leading to discrepancies in oceanic Os residence times estimated from mass balance calculations. This, in part, is due to the problems associated with directly measuring ultra-low concentrations of Os in seawater. Recently, it has been proposed that the 187Os/188Os of macroalgae (seaweed) reflects that of the seawater in which it lives. This suggests macroalgae can act as a proxy for the Os isotopic composition of seawater. We present Os isotope data for macroalgae collected from Tokyo Bay, Osaka Bay, the Noto Peninsula, Izu Peninsula and Hokkaido. Macroalgae close to the major cities of Tokyo and Osaka exhibit unradiogenic 187Os/188Os values as low as 0.45, in agreement with published sediment data. As you move away from central Tokyo and Osaka, 187Os/188Os values become more radiogenic, reaching values as high as 0.95 due to the entrainment of more radiogenic seawater. Macroalgae from the less urbanised Noto and Izu Peninsulas show a radiogenic 187Os/188Os range of 0.70-0.91, close to global river estimates suggesting little contamination from anthropogenic processes. Deep-water species off the coast of Hokkaido exhibit 187Os/188Os values in agreement with published Pacific Ocean seawater data. We propose macroalgae is recording the influence of anthropogenic processes - in particular sewage sludge production and catalytic convertor exhaust - on the Os budget of Japanese waters. Therefore

Effects of anthropogenic developments on common raven nesting biology in the West Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Kristan, William B; Boarman, William I

2007-09-01

Subsidized predators may affect prey abundance, distribution, and demography. Common Ravens (Corvus corax) are anthropogenically subsidized throughout their range and, in the Mojave Desert, have increased in number dramatically over the last 3-4 decades. Human-provided food resources are thought to be important drivers of raven population growth, but human developments add other features as well, such as nesting platforms. From 1996 to 2000, we examined the nesting ecology of ravens in the Mojave Desert, relative to anthropogenic developrhent. Ravens nested disproportionately near point sources of food and water subsidies (such as towns, landfills, and ponds) but not near roads (sources of road-killed carrion), even though both sources of subsidy enhanced fledging success. Initiation of breeding activity was more likely when a nest from the previous year was present at the start of a breeding season but was not affected by access to food. The relative effect of environmental modifications on fledging success varied from year to year, but the effect of access to human-provided resources was comparatively consistent, suggesting that humans provide consistently high-quality breeding habitat for ravens. Anthropogenic land cover types in the desert are expected to promote raven population growth and to allow ravens to occupy parts of the desert that otherwise would not support them. Predatory impacts of ravens in the Mojave Desert can therefore be considered indirect effects of anthropogenic development.

Open Earth Observation Data for Measuring Anthropogenic Development in Coastal Zones at Continental Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, X.; Leinenkugel, P.; Guo, H.; Kuenzer, C.

2017-12-01

During the recent decades, global coasts are undergoing tremendous change due to accelerating socio-economic growth, which has severe effects on the functioning of global coastal systems. In view of this, accurate, timely, and area-wide global information on natural as well as anthropogenic processes in the coastal zone are of paramount importance for sustainable coastal development. A broad range of freely available satellite derived products, and open geo-datasets, as well as statistics with global coverage exist that have not yet been fully exploited to evaluate human development patterns in coastal areas. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of freely and openly available EO and GEO data sets for characterizing and evaluating human development in coastal zones on large scales. Therefore, different geo-spatial dataset such as Global Urban Footprint (GUF), Open Street Map (OSM), time series of Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Land cover were acquired for the entire continental coast of Asia, defined as the terrestrial area 100 km from the coastline. In order to extract indices for the coastline, a reference structure was developed allowing the integration of a 2D spatial pattern of a given parameter to a certain location along the coast line. Based on this reference structure statistics for the coast were calculated every 5 km parallel to the coast line as well as for four different distance intervals from the coast. The results demonstrate the highly unequal distribution of coastal development with respect to urban and agricultural usage in Asia, with large differences between and within different countries. China coasts show the highest overall patterns of urban development, while countries such as Pakistan and Myanmar show comparably low levels with nearly no development evident absence from coastal metropolitan areas. Furthermore, a clear trend of decreasing urban development is evident with increasing distance

Global Warming: Its Implications for U.S. National Security Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-19

The approach to this topic will be to look at the science behind anthropogenic global warming . Is man largely responsible for causing global warming due...paper will then investigate the nexus between global warming and U.S. national security policy. It will address the challenges facing U.S. leaders and...policy makers as they tackle the issue of global warming and its implications for U.S. policy. Finally it will conclude with recommendations for those

Modeling the Origin of Anthropogenic Black Carbon and Its Climatic Effect Over the Tibetan Plateau and Surrounding Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Junhua; Kang, Shichang; Ji, Zhenming; Chen, Deliang

2018-01-01

Black carbon (BC) in snow/ice induces enhanced snow and glacier melting. As over 60% of atmospheric BC is emitted from anthropogenic sources, which directly impacts the distribution and concentration of BC in snow/ice, it is essential to assess the origin of anthropogenic BC transported to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) where there are few direct emissions attributable to local human activities. In this study, we used a regional climate-atmospheric chemistry model and a set of BC scenarios for quantitative evaluation of the impact of anthropogenic BC from various sources and its climate effects over the TP in 2013. The results showed that the model performed well in terms of climatology, aerosol optical properties, and near-surface concentrations, which indicates that this modeling framework is appropriate to characterize anthropogenic BC source-receptor relationships over the TP. The simulated surface concentration associated with the anthropogenic sources showed seasonal differences. In the monsoon season, the contribution of anthropogenic BC was less than in the nonmonsoon season. In the nonmonsoon season, westerly winds prevailed and transported BC from central Asia and north India to the western TP. In the monsoon season, BC aerosol was transported to the middle-upper troposphere over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and crossed the Himalayas via southwesterly winds. The majority of anthropogenic BC over the TP was transported from South Asia, which contributed to 40%-80% (mean of 61.3%) of surface BC in the nonmonsoon season, and 10%-50% (mean of 19.4%) in the monsoon season. For the northeastern TP, anthropogenic BC from eastern China accounted for less than 10% of the total in the nonmonsoon season but can be up to 50% in the monsoon season. Averaged over the TP, the eastern China anthropogenic sources accounted for 6.2% and 8.4% of surface BC in the nonmonsoon and monsoon seasons, respectively. The anthropogenic BC induced negative radiative forcing and cooling effects

Global Crop Yields, Climatic Trends and Technology Enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.; Kogan, F.

2016-12-01

During the last decades the global agricultural production has soared up and technology enhancement is still making positive contribution to yield growth. However, continuing population, water crisis, deforestation and climate change threaten the global food security. Attempts to predict food availability in the future around the world can be partly understood from the impact of changes to date. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country scale using climate covariates and technology trend is presented in this paper. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling and/or clustering to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Geopotential height (GPH), historical CO2 level and time-trend as a relatively reliable approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2007. Results show that these indicators can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications.

Acidic processing of mineral dust iron by anthropogenic compounds over the north Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solmon, F.; Chuang, P. Y.; Meskhidze, N.; Chen, Y.

2009-01-01

Atmospheric processing of mineral aerosol by anthropogenic pollutants may be an important process by which insoluble iron can be transformed into soluble forms and become available to oceanic biota. Observations of the soluble iron fraction in atmospheric aerosol exhibit large variability, which is poorly represented in models. In this study, we implemented a dust iron dissolution scheme in a global chemistry transport model (GEOS-Chem). The model is applied over the North Pacific Ocean during April 2001, a period when concentrations of dust and pollution within the east Asia outflow were high. Simulated fields of many key chemical constituents compare reasonably well with available observations, although some discrepancies are identified and discussed. In our simulations, the production of soluble iron varies temporally and regionally depending on pollution-to-dust ratio, primarily due to strong buffering by calcite. Overall, we show that the chemical processing mechanism produces significant amounts of dissolved iron reaching and being deposited in remote regions of the Pacific basin, with some seasonal variability. Simulated enhancements in particulate soluble iron fraction range from 0.5% to 6%, which is consistent with the observations. According to our simulations, ˜30% to 70% of particulate soluble iron over the North Pacific Ocean basin can be attributed to atmospheric processing. On the basis of April 2001 monthly simulations, sensitivity tests suggest that doubling SO2 emissions can induce a significant increase (13% on average, up to 40% during specific events) in dissolved iron production and deposition to the remote Pacific. We roughly estimate that half of the primary productivity induced by iron deposition in a north Pacific high-nutrient low-chlorophyll region is due to soluble iron derived from anthropogenic chemical processing of Asian aerosol.

Increasing Anthropogenic Emissions in China Offset Air Quality Policy Efforts in Western United States: A Satellite and Modelling Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boersma, F. F.; Verstraeten, W. W.; Williams, J. E.; Neu, J. L.; Bowman, K. W.; Worden, J.

2014-12-01

Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas and a global air pollutant originating from photo-chemical oxidation of ozone precursors in the presence of NOX. Eastern Asia has the fastest growing anthropogenic emissions in the world, possibly affecting both the pollution in the local troposphere as well as in the trans-Pacific region. Local measurements over Asia show that tropospheric ozone has increased by 1 to 3% per year since the start of the millennium. This increase is often invoked to explain positive ozone trends observed in western United States, but to date there is no unambiguous evidence showing that enhanced Asian pollution is responsible for these trends. Here we interpret satellite measurements of tropospheric ozone and its precursor nitrate dioxide from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) using the TM5 global chemistry-transport model to directly show that tropospheric ozone over China has increased by ~10% from 2005-2010 in response to both a ~15% rise in Chinese emissions and an increased downward ozone transport from the stratosphere. What is more, we demonstrate that Chinese export of ozone and its precursors have offset one-third of the reduction in free tropospheric ozone over the western United States that should have occurred during 2005-2010 via emissions reductions associated with air quality policies in the United States. The issue of export and long-range transport of pollution from other countries indicates that global efforts may be required to address both the global as well as the regional air quality and climate change.

Anthropogenic impacts on carbon uptake variability in the subtropical North Atlantic: 1992-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tudino, Tobia; Messias, Marie-Jose; Mills, Benjamin J. W.; Watson, Andrew J.; Halloran, Paul R.; Bernardello, Raffaele; Torres-Valdés, Sinhue; Schuster, Ute; Williams, Richard G.; Wanninkhof, Rik

2017-04-01

Since 1860, anthropogenic emissions have increased atmospheric CO2 by more than 120ppm. The global ocean has lessened the accompanying climate impacts, taking up 33% of the emitted CO2, with the highest storage per unit area occurring in the North Atlantic. To investigate carbon uptake and storage in the subtropical North Atlantic, we compare three estimates of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) with dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) observations. We use data from a repeat (1992-2010) subtropical transect, where we find an average DIC increase of 1.06 μmol/(kg yr). We separate the observed DIC into five components: preindustrial, dissolved hard-tissue, regenerated soft-tissue, Cant, and surface air-sea disequilibrium. Among them, Cant increases approximately linearly over time (0.39-0.62 μmol/(kg yr), depending on the method adopted), contributing to the total DIC rise. Simultaneously, we observe a biologically driven increase (0.38 μmol/(kg yr)) in carbon from regenerated soft-tissue. We link this variation to the possible ongoing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slow-down (2009-2010) and the associated strengthening of the biological pump. We expand our analysis by assessing outputs from an Earth system model between 1860 and 2100. In the preindustrial control (i.e. with no influence of anthropogenic CO2), we found a predominance of the biological pump in overall carbon uptake, while the industrial simulation leads to a comparable influence of the biological and physical pumps. We conclude that anthropogenic perturbation of the natural long-term variability in oceanic ventilation could affect the remineralized pool of carbon in the subtropical North Atlantic, potentially making it a higher sink for carbon than previously thought.

The effect of anthropogenic emissions corrections on the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Erickson III, David J; Blasing, T J

A previous study (Erickson et al. 2008) approximated the monthly global emission estimates of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} by applying a 2-harmonic Fourier expansion with coefficients as a function of latitude to annual CO{sub 2} flux estimates derived from United States data (Blasing et al. 2005) that were extrapolated globally. These monthly anthropogenic CO{sub 2} flux estimates were used to model atmospheric concentrations using the NASA GEOS-4 data assimilation system. Local variability in the amplitude of the simulated CO{sub 2} seasonal cycle were found to be on the order of 2-6 ppmv. Here we used the same Fourier expansion to seasonallymore » adjust the global annual fossil fuel CO{sub 2} emissions from the SRES A2 scenario. For a total of four simulations, both the annual and seasonalized fluxes were advected in two configurations of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) used in the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP). One configuration used the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) coupled with the CASA (carbon only) biogeochemistry model and the other used CLM coupled with the CN (coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles) biogeochemistry model. All four simulations were forced with observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre and a prescribed transient atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration for the radiation and land forcing over the 20th century. The model results exhibit differences in the seasonal cycle of CO{sub 2} between the seasonally corrected and uncorrected simulations. Moreover, because of differing energy and water feedbacks between the atmosphere model and the two land biogeochemistry models, features of the CO{sub 2} seasonal cycle were different between these two model configurations. This study reinforces previous findings that suggest that regional near-surface atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations depend strongly on the natural sources and sinks of CO{sub 2}, but also on the strength of local

Reduced anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing caused by biogenic new particle formation

PubMed Central

Sengupta, Kamalika; Duplissy, Jonathan; Frege, Carla; Williamson, Christina; Heinritzi, Martin; Simon, Mario; Yan, Chao; Almeida, João; Tröstl, Jasmin; Nieminen, Tuomo; Ortega, Ismael K.; Wagner, Robert; Dunne, Eimear M.; Adamov, Alexey; Amorim, Antonio; Bernhammer, Anne-Kathrin; Bianchi, Federico; Breitenlechner, Martin; Brilke, Sophia; Chen, Xuemeng; Craven, Jill S.; Dias, Antonio; Ehrhart, Sebastian; Fischer, Lukas; Flagan, Richard C.; Franchin, Alessandro; Fuchs, Claudia; Guida, Roberto; Hakala, Jani; Hoyle, Christopher R.; Jokinen, Tuija; Junninen, Heikki; Kangasluoma, Juha; Kim, Jaeseok; Krapf, Manuel; Kürten, Andreas; Laaksonen, Ari; Lehtipalo, Katrianne; Makhmutov, Vladimir; Mathot, Serge; Molteni, Ugo; Monks, Sarah A.; Onnela, Antti; Peräkylä, Otso; Piel, Felix; Petäjä, Tuukka; Praplan, Arnaud P.; Pringle, Kirsty J.; Richards, Nigel A. D.; Rissanen, Matti P.; Rondo, Linda; Sarnela, Nina; Scott, Catherine E.; Seinfeld, John H.; Sharma, Sangeeta; Sipilä, Mikko; Steiner, Gerhard; Stozhkov, Yuri; Stratmann, Frank; Tomé, Antonio; Virtanen, Annele; Vogel, Alexander Lucas; Wagner, Andrea C.; Wagner, Paul E.; Weingartner, Ernest; Wimmer, Daniela; Winkler, Paul M.; Ye, Penglin; Zhang, Xuan; Hansel, Armin; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Baltensperger, Urs; Kulmala, Markku; Curtius, Joachim

2016-01-01

The magnitude of aerosol radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic emissions depends on the baseline state of the atmosphere under pristine preindustrial conditions. Measurements show that particle formation in atmospheric conditions can occur solely from biogenic vapors. Here, we evaluate the potential effect of this source of particles on preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and aerosol–cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period. Model simulations show that the pure biogenic particle formation mechanism has a much larger relative effect on CCN concentrations in the preindustrial atmosphere than in the present atmosphere because of the lower aerosol concentrations. Consequently, preindustrial cloud albedo is increased more than under present day conditions, and therefore the cooling forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is reduced. The mechanism increases CCN concentrations by 20–100% over a large fraction of the preindustrial lower atmosphere, and the magnitude of annual global mean radiative forcing caused by changes of cloud albedo since 1750 is reduced by 0.22 W m−2 (27%) to −0.60 W m−2. Model uncertainties, relatively slow formation rates, and limited available ambient measurements make it difficult to establish the significance of a mechanism that has its dominant effect under preindustrial conditions. Our simulations predict more particle formation in the Amazon than is observed. However, the first observation of pure organic nucleation has now been reported for the free troposphere. Given the potentially significant effect on anthropogenic forcing, effort should be made to better understand such naturally driven aerosol processes. PMID:27790989

Anthropogenic Cycles of Rare Earth Elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, X.; Graedel, T. E.

2009-12-01

This research will develop quantitatively resolved anthropogenic cycles and in-use stocks for the rare earth metals specifically cerium, lanthanum and dysprosium in Japan, China, and the U.S. for the year of 2007. Rare earth elements (REE) is a group of 17 scare metals widely used in a growing number of emerging technologies and have been in high demand for emerging technologies as raw materials during past the three decades. New market participants from newly industrializing countries, primarily China, have had strong impacts on the demand of share. Consequently, the importance to sustain a reliable, steady, uninterrupted supply on global market triggered comprehensive research to recognize and understand the life cycles of rare earths. Moreover, because China plays a dominant role in mining production since 1990, it requires the assessment for the countries, which are almost completely dependent on imports from China with respect to rare earth resources. The study aims to analyze the flows and stocks of rare earth elements individually as elemental form in spite of their natural geological co-occurrence and mixed composition in applications. By applying the method of Material Flow Analysis (MFA) work has been done on evaluating current and historical flows of specific technologically significant materials, for example, copper, zinc, nickel, etc., determining the stocks available in different types of reservoirs (e.g., lithosphere, in-use) and the flows among the reservoirs, developing scenarios of possible futures of metal use, and assessing the environmental and policy implications of the results. Therefore, REE as a new target deserves inclusion because of its potential demand-supply conflict and importance to secure the competitive advantage of technical innovation in future. This work will generate a quantitatively resolved anthropogenic life cycle and in-use stocks for REE for the main target countries for a chosen year, 2007, providing flows and stocks from

Increase in Export Production in the Marginal Seas of the Northwestern Pacific in Response to Anthropogenic N Input

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Ko, Y. H.; Moon, J. Y.

2017-12-01

The relative abundance of nitrate (N) over phosphorus (P) has increased significantly over the period since 1980 in the marginal seas (Yellow, East China and East seas) bordering the northwestern Pacific Ocean, located downstream of the populated and industrialized Asian continent. Analysis of datasets for anthropogenic N input, satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), and seawater nutrient data ( 200,000 data points) reveal that transport of N originating from China has been responsible for enhancements of Chl-a in the marginal seas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean. In particular, the contribution of anthropogenic N to new production in these marginal seas is expected to grow considerably in the coming decades. This anthropogenically driven increase in the N content may potentially lead to a long-term change of these marginal seas from being N-limited to P-limited.

Strategic Global Climate Command?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, J. C. S.

2016-12-01

Researchers have been exploring geoengineering because Anthropogenic GHG emissions could drive the globe towards unihabitability for people, wildlife and vegetation. Potential global deployment of these technologies is inherently strategic. For example, solar radiation management to reflect more sunlight might be strategically useful during a period of time where the population completes an effort to cease emissions and carbon removal technologies might then be strategically deployed to move the atmospheric concentrations back to a safer level. Consequently, deployment of these global technologies requires the ability to think and act strategically on the part of the planet's governments. Such capacity most definitely does not exist today but it behooves scientists and engineers to be involved in thinking through how global command might develop because the way they do the research could support the development of a capacity to deploy intervention rationally -- or irrationally. Internationalizing research would get countries used to working together. Organizing the research in a step-wise manner where at each step scientists become skilled at explaining what they have learned, the quality of the information they have, what they don't know and what more they can do to reduce or handle uncertainty, etc. Such a process can increase societal confidence in being able to make wise decisions about deployment. Global capacity will also be enhanced if the sceintific establishment reinvents misssion driven research so that the programs will identify the systemic issues invovled in any proposed technology and systematically address them with research while still encouraging individual creativity. Geoengineering will diverge from climate science in that geoengineering research needs to design interventions for some publically desirable goal and investigates whether a proposed intervention will acheive desired outcomes. The effort must be a systems-engineering design problem

Anthropogenic N Deposition Slows Decay by Favoring Bacterial Metabolism: Insights from Metagenomic Analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freedman, Zachary B.; Upchurch, Rima A.; Zak, Donald R.

Litter decomposition is an enzymatically-complex process that is mediated by a diverse assemblage of saprophytic microorganisms. It is a globally important biogeochemical process that can be suppressed by anthropogenic N deposition. In a northern hardwood forest ecosystem located in Michigan, USA, 20 years of experimentally increased atmospheric N deposition has reduced forest floor decay and increased soil C storage. Here, we paired extracellular enzyme assays with shotgun metagenomics to assess if anthropogenic N deposition has altered the functional potential of microbial communities inhabiting decaying forest floor. Experimental N deposition significantly reduced the activity of extracellular enzymes mediating plant cell wallmore » decay, which occurred concurrently with changes in the relative abundance of metagenomic functional gene pathways mediating the metabolism of carbohydrates, aromatic compounds, as well as microbial respiration. Moreover, experimental N deposition increased the relative abundance of 50 of the 60 gene pathways, the majority of which were associated with saprotrophic bacteria. Conversely, the relative abundance and composition of fungal genes mediating the metabolism of plant litter was not affected by experimental N deposition. Future rates of atmospheric N deposition have favored saprotrophic soil bacteria, whereas the metabolic potential of saprotrophic fungi appears resilient to this agent of environmental change. Results presented here provide evidence that changes in the functional capacity of saprotrophic soil microorganisms mediate how anthropogenic N deposition increases C storage in soil.« less

Anthropogenic N Deposition Slows Decay by Favoring Bacterial Metabolism: Insights from Metagenomic Analyses

DOE PAGES

Freedman, Zachary B.; Upchurch, Rima A.; Zak, Donald R.; ...

2016-03-02

Litter decomposition is an enzymatically-complex process that is mediated by a diverse assemblage of saprophytic microorganisms. It is a globally important biogeochemical process that can be suppressed by anthropogenic N deposition. In a northern hardwood forest ecosystem located in Michigan, USA, 20 years of experimentally increased atmospheric N deposition has reduced forest floor decay and increased soil C storage. Here, we paired extracellular enzyme assays with shotgun metagenomics to assess if anthropogenic N deposition has altered the functional potential of microbial communities inhabiting decaying forest floor. Experimental N deposition significantly reduced the activity of extracellular enzymes mediating plant cell wallmore » decay, which occurred concurrently with changes in the relative abundance of metagenomic functional gene pathways mediating the metabolism of carbohydrates, aromatic compounds, as well as microbial respiration. Moreover, experimental N deposition increased the relative abundance of 50 of the 60 gene pathways, the majority of which were associated with saprotrophic bacteria. Conversely, the relative abundance and composition of fungal genes mediating the metabolism of plant litter was not affected by experimental N deposition. Future rates of atmospheric N deposition have favored saprotrophic soil bacteria, whereas the metabolic potential of saprotrophic fungi appears resilient to this agent of environmental change. Results presented here provide evidence that changes in the functional capacity of saprotrophic soil microorganisms mediate how anthropogenic N deposition increases C storage in soil.« less

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Hameed, S.; Hogan, J. S.

1980-01-01

Tropospheric ozone and methane might increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test this possible climatic impact, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically-averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4 and NOx. The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NOx and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could enhance global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Statistical Detection of Anthropogenic Temporal Changes in the Distribution of Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joannes-boyau, R.; Bodin, T.; Scheffers, A.; Sambridge, M.

2012-12-01

Recent studies highlighting the potential impact of climate change on tropical cyclones have added fuel to the already controversial debates. The link between climate change and tropical cyclone intensity and frequency has been disputed, as both appear to remain in the natural variability. The difficulty lies in our ability to distinguish natural changes from anthropogenic-induced anomalies. The increased anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to environmental changes such as warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and thus could impact tropical cyclones intensities and frequencies. However, recent studies show that, against an increasing SST, no global trend in respect to cyclone frequency has yet emerged. Scientists have warned to consider the heterogeneity of the existing dataset; especially since the historical tropical cyclone record is frequently accused to be incomplete. Given the abundance of cyclone record data and its likely sensitivity to a number of environmental factors, the real limitation comes from our ability to understand the record as a whole. Thus, strong arguments against the impartiality of proposed models are often debated. We will present an impartial and independent statistical tool applicable to a wide variety of physical and biological phenomena such as processes described by power laws, to observe temporal variations in the tropical cyclone track record from 1842 to 2010. This methodology allows us to observe the impact of anthropogenic-induced modifications on climatic events, without being clustered in subjective parameterised models.

Source Attribution of Tropospheric Ozone using a Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coates, J.; Lupascu, A.; Butler, T. M.; Zhu, S.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone is both a short-lived climate forcing pollutant and a radiatively active greenhouse gas. Ozone is not directly emitted into the troposphere but photochemically produced from chemical reactions involving nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs) have both natural and anthropogenic sources and may be transported away from their sources to produce ozone downwind. Also, transport of ozone from the stratosphere into the troposphere also influences tropospheric ozone levels in some regions. Attributing ozone concentrations to the contributions from different sources would indicate the effects of locally emitted or transported precursors on ozone levels in specific regions. This information could be used to inform the emission reduction strategies of ozone precursors by indicating which emission sources could be targeted for effective reductions thus reducing the burden of ozone pollution. We use a "tagging" approach within the CESM global model to attribute ozone levels to their source emissions. We use different tags to quantify the impact from natural (soils, lightning, stratospheric transport) and anthropogenic (aircraft, biomass burning) sources of NOx and VOCs (including methane) on ozone levels. These source sectors of different global regions are assigned based on the global emissions specified by HTAPv2.2. Using these results, we develop a transboundary source-receptor relationship of ozone concentration to its precursor emission regions. Additionally, the transport of ozone precursors from regional anthropogenic sources is analysed to illustrate the extent to which mitigation strategies of regional emissions aid in mitigating global ozone levels.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. Clare; Singarayer, Joy S.; Valdes, Paul J.; Kaplan, Jed O.; Branch, Nicholas P.

2016-04-01

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June-July-August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2-3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature

Our Changing Planet: The FY 1993 US Global Change Research Program. A report by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, a supplement to the US President's fiscal year 1993 budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

The U.S. Global Change Reasearch Program (USGCRP) was established as a Presidential initiative in the FY-1990 Budget to help develop sound national and international policies related to global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The USGCRP is implemented through a priority-driven scientific research agenda that is designed to be integrated, comprehensive, and multidisciplinary. It is designed explicitly to address scientific uncertainties in such areas as climate change, ozone depletion, changes in terrestrial and marine productivity, global water and energy cycles, sea level changes, the impact of global changes on human health and activities, and the impact of anthropogenic activities on the Earth system. The USGCRP addresses three parallel but interconnected streams of activity: documenting global change (observations); enhancing understanding of key processes (process research); and predicting global and regional environmental change (integrated modeling and prediction).

Assessing the Influence of Human Activities on Global Water Resources Using an Advanced Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Koirala, S.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2010-12-01

In order to examine the impact of human intervention on the global hydrological cycle, a Land Surface Model was enhanced with schemes to assess the anthropogenic disturbance on the natural water flow at the global scale. Four different schemes namely; reservoir operation, crop growth, environmental flow, and anthropogenic water withdrawal modules from a state-of-the-art global water resources assessment model called H08 were integrated into an offline version of LSM, Minimal Advance Treatment of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO). MATSIRO represents majority of the hydrological processes of water and energy exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere on a physical basis and is designed to be coupled with GCM. The integrated model presented here thus has the capability to simulate both natural and anthropogenic flows of water globally at a spatial resolution of 1°x1°, considering dam operation, domestic, industrial and agricultural water withdrawals and environmental flow requirements. The model can also be coupled with climate models to assess the impact of human activities on the climate system. A simple groundwater scheme was also incorporated and the model can be used to assess the change in water table due to groundwater pumping for irrigation. The model was validated by comparing simulated soil moisture, river discharge and Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) with observations. The model performs well in simulating TWSA as compared to GRACE observation in different river basins ranging from very wet to very dry. Soil moisture cannot be validated globally because of the lack of validation datasets. For Illinois region, where long term soil moisture observations are available, the model captures the seasonal variation quite well. The simulated global potential irrigation demand is about 1100km3/year, which is within the range of previously published estimates based on various water balance models and LSMs. The model has an advanced option

Anthropogenic impact and lead pollution throughout the Holocene in Southern Iberia.

PubMed

García-Alix, A; Jimenez-Espejo, F J; Lozano, J A; Jiménez-Moreno, G; Martinez-Ruiz, F; García Sanjuán, L; Aranda Jiménez, G; García Alfonso, E; Ruiz-Puertas, G; Anderson, R Scott

2013-04-01

Present day lead pollution is an environmental hazard of global proportions. A correct determination of natural lead levels is very important in order to evaluate anthropogenic lead contributions. In this paper, the anthropogenic signature of early metallurgy in Southern Iberia during the Holocene, more specifically during the Late Prehistory, was assessed by mean of a multiproxy approach: comparison of atmospheric lead pollution, fire regimes, deforestation, mass sediment transport, and archeological data. Although the onset of metallurgy in Southern Iberia is a matter of controversy, here we show the oldest lead pollution record from Western Europe in a continuous paleoenvironmental sequence, which suggests clear lead pollution caused by metallurgical activities since ~3900 cal BP (Early Bronze Age). This lead pollution was especially important during Late Bronze and Early Iron ages. At the same time, since ~4000 cal BP, an increase in fire activity is observed in this area, which is also coupled with deforestation and increased erosion rates. This study also shows that the lead pollution record locally reached near present-day values many times in the past, suggesting intensive use and manipulation of lead during those periods in this area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toward an Assessment of the Global Inventory of Present-Day Mercury Releases to Freshwater Environments.

PubMed

Kocman, David; Wilson, Simon J; Amos, Helen M; Telmer, Kevin H; Steenhuisen, Frits; Sunderland, Elsie M; Mason, Robert P; Outridge, Peter; Horvat, Milena

2017-02-01

Aquatic ecosystems are an essential component of the biogeochemical cycle of mercury (Hg), as inorganic Hg can be converted to toxic methylmercury (MeHg) in these environments and reemissions of elemental Hg rival anthropogenic Hg releases on a global scale. Quantification of effluent Hg releases to aquatic systems globally has focused on discharges to the global oceans, rather than contributions to freshwater systems that affect local exposures and risks associated with MeHg. Here we produce a first-estimate of sector-specific, spatially resolved global aquatic Hg discharges to freshwater systems. We compare our release estimates to atmospheric sources that have been quantified elsewhere. By analyzing available quantitative and qualitative information, we estimate that present-day global Hg releases to freshwater environments (rivers and lakes) associated with anthropogenic activities have a lower bound of ~1000 Mg· a-1. Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) represents the single largest source, followed by disposal of mercury-containing products and domestic waste water, metal production, and releases from industrial installations such as chlor-alkali plants and oil refineries. In addition to these direct anthropogenic inputs, diffuse inputs from land management activities and remobilization of Hg previously accumulated in terrestrial ecosystems are likely comparable in magnitude. Aquatic discharges of Hg are greatly understudied and further constraining associated data gaps is crucial for reducing the uncertainties in the global biogeochemical Hg budget.

Toward an Assessment of the Global Inventory of Present-Day Mercury Releases to Freshwater Environments

PubMed Central

Kocman, David; Wilson, Simon J.; Amos, Helen M.; Telmer, Kevin H.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Sunderland, Elsie M.; Mason, Robert P.; Outridge, Peter; Horvat, Milena

2017-01-01

Aquatic ecosystems are an essential component of the biogeochemical cycle of mercury (Hg), as inorganic Hg can be converted to toxic methylmercury (MeHg) in these environments and reemissions of elemental Hg rival anthropogenic Hg releases on a global scale. Quantification of effluent Hg releases to aquatic systems globally has focused on discharges to the global oceans, rather than contributions to freshwater systems that affect local exposures and risks associated with MeHg. Here we produce a first-estimate of sector-specific, spatially resolved global aquatic Hg discharges to freshwater systems. We compare our release estimates to atmospheric sources that have been quantified elsewhere. By analyzing available quantitative and qualitative information, we estimate that present-day global Hg releases to freshwater environments (rivers and lakes) associated with anthropogenic activities have a lower bound of ~1000 Mg·a−1. Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) represents the single largest source, followed by disposal of mercury-containing products and domestic waste water, metal production, and releases from industrial installations such as chlor-alkali plants and oil refineries. In addition to these direct anthropogenic inputs, diffuse inputs from land management activities and remobilization of Hg previously accumulated in terrestrial ecosystems are likely comparable in magnitude. Aquatic discharges of Hg are greatly understudied and further constraining associated data gaps is crucial for reducing the uncertainties in the global biogeochemical Hg budget. PMID:28157152

Enhancing Polyhedral Relaxations for Global Optimization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bao, Xiaowei

2009-01-01

During the last decade, global optimization has attracted a lot of attention due to the increased practical need for obtaining global solutions and the success in solving many global optimization problems that were previously considered intractable. In general, the central question of global optimization is to find an optimal solution to a given…

Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

2014-12-01

The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (H<0: fluctuations decreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain

The Role of International Research Collaboration in Enhancing Global Presence of an Institution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ao, Fiona Ka Wa

2012-01-01

In recent decades, higher education institutions have steadily increased their international involvement in response to globalization. High-level research is generally a key component in efforts to increase international visibility (Armstrong, 2007). International research collaborations are perceived to be an important way to enhance global…

Anthropogenic Osmium in Airborne Particles from Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peucker-Ehrenbrink, B.; Sen, I. S.; Geboy, N.

2012-12-01

The global geochemical cycle of osmium has been significantly disturbed by the introduction of automobile exhaust catalysts to convert noxious gas emissions into more benign forms. Anthropogenic osmium has been reported in rainwater, snow, and in the urban airborne particles from around the world to reveal global-scale osmium pollution [1, 2]. In this study, we report on the platinum group element (PGE) concentrations and osmium isotope ratios of airborne particles (PM10) collected in Woods Hole, a small coastal town in Massachusetts to better understand inputs of anthropogenic osmium to rural environments. We further investigate the use of osmium isotopes to track sources of airborne particles and support source apportionment studies on a continental scale. The samples used in this study were collected at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution over one year (2008-2009). From this collection twelve samples for which the backward air mass trajectories have been determined were selected for osmium isotope analyses. Our results show that the osmium and platinum concentrations are an order of magnitude lower when compared to downtown Boston [2]. The average Os, Pt and Ir concentrations are 0.006±0.012, 0.019±0.023, and 0.685±0.634 pg m-3, respectively. The 187Os/188Os of the aerosols range from 0.275 to 0.788. As continental crust is radiogenic (187Os/188Os >1) and PGE ore bodies generally have unradiogenic 187Os/188Os (~0.2), the unradiogenic 187Os/188Os signature of the aerosols indicates anthropogenic contributions. With 95% of the total osmium mobilization on land being attributed to human activities [3], it is clear that human imprint on airborne particles is not restricted to urban centers with high traffic flows, but also affects rural environments. Aerosol particles that have backward air mass trajectories from the Southwest, the densely populated and industrialized Eastern seaboard, are characterized by unradiogenic osmium, while air masses from the North

Quantifying global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions: from OCO-2 to optimal observing designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, X.; Lauvaux, T.; Kort, E. A.; Oda, T.; Feng, S.; Lin, J. C.; Yang, E. G.; Wu, D.; Kuze, A.; Suto, H.; Eldering, A.

2017-12-01

Cities house more than half of the world's population and are responsible for more than 70% of the world anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Therefore, quantifications of emissions from major cities, which are only less than a hundred intense emitting spots across the globe, should allow us to monitor changes in global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, in an independent, objective way. Satellite platforms provide favorable temporal and spatial coverage to collect urban CO2 data to quantify the anthropogenic contributions to the global carbon budget. We present here the optimal observation design for future NASA's OCO-2 and Japanese GOSAT missions, based on real-data (i.e. OCO-2) experiments and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE's) to address different error components in the urban CO2 budget calculation. We identify the major sources of emission uncertainties for various types of cities with different ecosystems and geographical features, such as urban plumes over flat terrains, accumulated enhancements within basins, and complex weather regimes in coastal areas. Atmospheric transport errors were characterized under various meteorological conditions using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km spatial resolution, coupled to the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) emissions. We propose and discuss the optimized urban sampling strategies to address some difficulties from the seasonality in cloud cover and emissions, vegetation density in and around cities, and address the daytime sampling bias using prescribed diurnal cycles. These factors are combined in pseudo data experiments in which we evaluate the relative impact of uncertainties on inverse estimates of CO2 emissions for cities across latitudinal and climatological zones. We propose here several sampling strategies to minimize the uncertainties in target mode for tracking urban fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over the globe for future satellite missions, such as OCO-3 and future

Effects of anthropogenic developments on common Raven nesting biology in the west Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kristan, W. B.; Boarman, W.I.

2007-01-01

Subsidized predators may affect prey abundance, distribution, and demography. Common Ravens (Corvus corax) are anthropogenically subsidized throughout their range and, in the Mojave Desert, have increased in number dramatically over the last 3-4 decades. Human-provided food resources are thought to be important drivers of raven population growth, but human developments add other features as well, such as nesting platforms. From 1996 to 2000, we examined the nesting ecology of ravens in the Mojave Desert, relative to anthropogenic development. Ravens nested disproportionately near point sources of food and water subsidies (such as towns, landfills, and ponds) but not near roads (sources of road-killed carrion), even though both sources of subsidy enhanced fledging success. Initiation of breeding activity was more likely when a nest from the previous year was present at the start of a breeding season but was not affected by access to food. The relative effect of environmental modifications on fledging success varied from year to year, but the effect of access to humanprovided resources was comparatively consistent, suggesting that humans provide consistently high-quality breeding habitat for ravens. Anthropogenic land cover types in the desert are expected to promote raven population growth and to allow ravens to occupy parts of the desert that otherwise would not support them. Predatory impacts of ravens in the Mojave Desert can therefore be considered indirect effects of anthropogenic development. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Estimating historical anthropogenic global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850-1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefohn, Allen S.; Husar, Janja D.; Husar, Rudolf B.

It is important to establish a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time when assessing the possible effects of global change and acid rain. This study developed a database of annual estimates of national sulfur emissions from 1850 to 1990. A common methodology was applied across all years and countries allowing for global totals to be produced by adding estimates from all countries. The consistent approach facilitates the modification of the database and the observation of changes at national, regional, or global levels. The emission estimates were based on net production (i.e., production plus imports minus exports), sulfur content, and sulfur retention for each country's production activities. Because the emission estimates were based on the above considerations, our database offers an opportunity to independently compare our results with those estimates based on individual country estimates. Fine temporal resolution clearly shows emission changes associated with specific historical events (e.g., wars, depressions, etc.) on a regional, national, or global basis. The spatial pattern of emissions shows that the US, the USSR, and China were the main sulfur emitters (i.e., approximately 50% of the total) in the world in 1990. The USSR and the US appear to have stabilized their sulfur emissions over the past 20 yr, and the recent increases in global sulfur emissions are linked to the rapid increases in emissions from China. Sulfur emissions have been reduced in some cases by switching from high- to low-sulfur coals. Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) has apparently made important contributions to emission reductions in only a few countries, such as Germany.

Application of Space Borne CO2 and Fluorescence Measurements to Detect Urban CO2 Emissions and Anthropogenic Influence on Vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paetzold, Johannes C.; Chen, Jia; Ruisinger, Veronika

2017-04-01

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) is a NASA satellite mission dedicated to make global, space-based observations of atmospheric, column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2). In addition, the OCO-2 also measures Solar Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF). In our research we have studied the combination of OCO-2's XCO2 and SIF measurements for numerous urban areas on the different continents. Applying GIS and KML visualization techniques as well as statistical approaches we are able to reliably detect anthropogenic CO2 emissions in CO2 column concentration enhancements over urban areas. Moreover, we detect SIF decreases over urban areas compared to their rural vicinities. We are able to obtain those findings for urban areas on different continents, of diverse sizes, dissimilar topographies and urban constructions. Our statistical analysis finds robust XCO2 enhancements of up to 3 ppm for urban areas in Europe, Asia and North America. Furthermore, the analysis of SIF indicates that urban construction, population density and seasonality influence urban vegetation, which can be observed from space. Additionally, we find that OCO-2's SIF measurements have the potential to identify and approximate green areas within cities. For Berlin's Grunewald Forest as well as Mumbai's Sanjay Gandhi and Tungareshwar National Parks we observe enhancements in SIF measurements at sub-city scales.

Globalization to amplify economic climate losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

2015-12-01

Economic welfare under enhanced anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated future warming poses a major challenge for a society with an evolving globally connected economy. Unabated climate change will impact economic output for example through heat-stress-related reductions in productivity. Since meteorologically-induced production reductions can propagate along supply chains, structural changes in the economic network may influence climate-related losses. The role of the economic network evolution for climate impacts has been neither quantified nor qualitatively understood. Here we show that since the beginning of the 21st century the structural change of the global supply network has been such that an increase of spillover losses due to unanticipated climatic events has to be expected. We quantify primary, secondary and higher-order losses from reduced labor productivity under past and present economic and climatic conditions and find that indirect losses are significant and increase with rising temperatures. The connectivity of the economic network has increased in such a way as to foster the propagation of production loss. This supply chain connectivity robustly exhibits the characteristic distribution of self-organized criticality which has been shifted towards higher values since 2001. Losses due to this structural evolution dominated over the effect of comparably weak climatic changes during this decade. Our finding suggests that the current form of globalization may amplify losses due to climatic extremes and thus necessitate structural adaptation that requires more foresight than presently prevalent.

Assessing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to the Rainfall Extremes Associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. T.; Lo, S. H.; Wang, C. C.

2014-12-01

More than 2000 mm rainfall occurred over southern Taiwan when a category 1 Typhoon Morakot pass through Taiwan in early August 2009. Entire village and hundred of people were buried by massive mudslides induced by record-breaking precipitation. Whether the past anthropogenic warming played a significant role in such extreme event remained very controversial. On one hand, people argue it's nearly impossible to attribute an individual extreme event to global warming. On the other hand, the increase of heavy rainfall is consistent with the expected effects of climate change on tropical cyclone. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Morakot, we adapt an existing event attribution framework of modeling a 'world that was' and comparing it to a modeled 'world that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. One limitation for applying such approach to high-impact weather system is that it will require models capable of capturing the essential processes lead to the studied extremes. Using a cloud system resolving model that can properly simulate the complicated interactions between tropical cyclone, large-scale background, topography, we first perform the ensemble 'world that was' simulations using high resolution ECMWF YOTC analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the analysis to 'world that might have been conditions' by removing the regional atmospheric and oceanic forcing due to human influences estimated from the CMIP5 model ensemble mean conditions between all forcing and natural forcing only historical runs. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible contribution of anthropogenic forcing to changes in the likelihood of heavy rainfall associated Typhoon Morakot in early August 2009.

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

Timing anthropogenic stressors to mitigate their impact on marine ecosystem resilience.

PubMed

Wu, Paul Pao-Yen; Mengersen, Kerrie; McMahon, Kathryn; Kendrick, Gary A; Chartrand, Kathryn; York, Paul H; Rasheed, Michael A; Caley, M Julian

2017-11-02

Better mitigation of anthropogenic stressors on marine ecosystems is urgently needed to address increasing biodiversity losses worldwide. We explore opportunities for stressor mitigation using whole-of-systems modelling of ecological resilience, accounting for complex interactions between stressors, their timing and duration, background environmental conditions and biological processes. We then search for ecological windows, times when stressors minimally impact ecological resilience, defined here as risk, recovery and resistance. We show for 28 globally distributed seagrass meadows that stressor scheduling that exploits ecological windows for dredging campaigns can achieve up to a fourfold reduction in recovery time and 35% reduction in extinction risk. Although the timing and length of windows vary among sites to some degree, global trends indicate favourable windows in autumn and winter. Our results demonstrate that resilience is dynamic with respect to space, time and stressors, varying most strongly with: (i) the life history of the seagrass genus and (ii) the duration and timing of the impacting stress.

The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffert, M.I.

1996-10-01

This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic changemore » from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.« less

TECHNOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR PLANNING THE GLOBAL CARBON FUTURE

EPA Science Inventory

The atmospheric level of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the dominant variable in the anthropogenic influence of future global climate change. Thus, it is critical to understand the long-term factors affecting its level, especially the longer-range technological considerations. Most rece...

Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

Insect-plant interactions in anthropogenically transformed ecosystems

Treesearch

Evgeny V. Kultunov; Victor I. Ponomarev; Sergey I. Fedorenko

1991-01-01

Structural and functional changes in forests due to anthropogenic factors have a considerable impact on the interaction of phytophagous insects with the phytocenosis. Many features of these processes have yet to be investigated in the deciduous forest conditions of the forest-steppe zone. We investigated birch forests disturbed by anthropogenic factors in the middle...

Radioecological aftermath: Maternal transfer of anthropogenic radionuclides to shark progeny is sustained and enhanced well beyond maternal exposure.

PubMed

Jeffree, Ross A; Oberhaensli, Francois; Teyssie, Jean-Louis; Fowler, Scott W

2018-05-25

Cartilaginous dogfish Scyliorhinus canicula continued to transfer four anthropogenic radionuclides ( 65 Zn, 60 Co, 134 Cs and 241 Am) to their eggs for over six months, after two months of continued maternal exposure to radio-labelled food. Unexpectedly, rates of radionuclide transfers to eggs and their yolk & embryo during maternal depuration were equivalent for 60 Co and 241 Am, or even enhanced for 65 Zn and 134 Cs by factors of c.200-350%, over two-three months, compared to their maximal transfer rates at the end of the maternal uptake phase. These rates of maternal transfer of radionuclides to yolk & embryo were positively associated with their previously determined efficiencies of assimilation (AE) from ingested radio-labelled food. Thus progeny may be more exposed via maternal transfer to those radionuclides which have greater rates of maternal assimilation from food. As maternal depuration continued beyond 60-80 up to 180-200 days the transfers of all four radionuclides to eggs did diminish but were still substantial at mean values of 18% for 241 Am, 17% for 134 Cs and 9 and 8% for 60 Co and 65 Zn, respectively. In the yolk & embryo the mean rates of transfer over this period were further reduced for 241 Am (13.5%), 60 Co (2.5%) and 65 Zn (5.8%), but were still appreciable for 134 Cs at 56%. These results for S. canicula have demonstrated a potential enhanced radiological risk of extended duration due to the particular biokinetics of maternal transfer in this species. This study draws further attention to the current paucity of knowledge about the maternal: progeny transfer pathway, particularly in the context of the known heightened radio-sensitivity of early life stages in fish and other vertebrates, compared to later life stages. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anthropogenic disturbance of element cycles at the Earth's surface.

PubMed

Sen, Indra S; Peucker-Ehrenbrink, Bernhard

2012-08-21

The extent to which humans are modifying Earth's surface chemistry can be quantified by comparing total anthropogenic element fluxes with their natural counterparts (Klee and Graedel, 2004). We quantify anthropogenic mass transfer of 77 elements from mining, fossil fuel burning, biomass burning, construction activities, and human apportionment of terrestrial net primary productivity, and compare it to natural mass transfer from terrestrial and marine net primary productivity, riverine dissolved and suspended matter fluxes to the ocean, soil erosion, eolian dust, sea-salt spray, cosmic dust, volcanic emissions, and for helium, hydrodynamic escape from the Earth's atmosphere. We introduce an approach to correct for losses during industrial processing of elements belonging to geochemically coherent groups, and explicitly incorporate uncertainties of element mass fluxes through Monte Carlo simulations. We find that at the Earth's surface anthropogenic fluxes of iridium, osmium, helium, gold, ruthenium, antimony, platinum, palladium, rhenium, rhodium and chromium currently exceed natural fluxes. For these elements mining is the major factor of anthropogenic influence, whereas petroleum burning strongly influences the surficial cycle of rhenium. Our assessment indicates that if anthropogenic contributions to soil erosion and eolian dust are considered, anthropogenic fluxes of up to 62 elements surpass their corresponding natural fluxes.

Re-Examining the Relationship between Tillage Regime and Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hammons, Sarah K.

2009-01-01

It is known that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are a major contributor to global climate change and that reducing our emissions will stem its acceleration (Baker et al., 2007). Aside from emission reductions, another method for stemming global climate change is to reduce the levels of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere by storing…

The global methane budget 2000-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; Poulter, Ben; Peregon, Anna; Ciais, Philippe; Canadell, Josep G.; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Etiope, Giuseppe; Bastviken, David; Houweling, Sander; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Castaldi, Simona; Jackson, Robert B.; Alexe, Mihai; Arora, Vivek K.; Beerling, David J.; Bergamaschi, Peter; Blake, Donald R.; Brailsford, Gordon; Brovkin, Victor; Bruhwiler, Lori; Crevoisier, Cyril; Crill, Patrick; Covey, Kristofer; Curry, Charles; Frankenberg, Christian; Gedney, Nicola; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Ishizawa, Misa; Ito, Akihiko; Joos, Fortunat; Kim, Heon-Sook; Kleinen, Thomas; Krummel, Paul; Lamarque, Jean-François; Langenfelds, Ray; Locatelli, Robin; Machida, Toshinobu; Maksyutov, Shamil; McDonald, Kyle C.; Marshall, Julia; Melton, Joe R.; Morino, Isamu; Naik, Vaishali; O'Doherty, Simon; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Patra, Prabir K.; Peng, Changhui; Peng, Shushi; Peters, Glen P.; Pison, Isabelle; Prigent, Catherine; Prinn, Ronald; Ramonet, Michel; Riley, William J.; Saito, Makoto; Santini, Monia; Schroeder, Ronny; Simpson, Isobel J.; Spahni, Renato; Steele, Paul; Takizawa, Atsushi; Thornton, Brett F.; Tian, Hanqin; Tohjima, Yasunori; Viovy, Nicolas; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; van Weele, Michiel; van der Werf, Guido R.; Weiss, Ray; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Wilton, David J.; Wiltshire, Andy; Worthy, Doug; Wunch, Debra; Xu, Xiyan; Yoshida, Yukio; Zhang, Bowen; Zhang, Zhen; Zhu, Qiuan

2016-12-01

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (˜ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr-1, range 540-568. About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios

Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

2014-12-01

Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

Anthropogenic Methane Emissions in California's San Joaquin Valley: Characterizing Large Point Source Emitters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, F. M.; Duren, R. M.; Miller, C. E.; Aubrey, A. D.; Falk, M.; Holland, L.; Hook, S. J.; Hulley, G. C.; Johnson, W. R.; Kuai, L.; Kuwayama, T.; Lin, J. C.; Thorpe, A. K.; Worden, J. R.; Lauvaux, T.; Jeong, S.; Fischer, M. L.

2015-12-01

Methane is an important atmospheric pollutant that contributes to global warming and tropospheric ozone production. Methane mitigation could reduce near term climate change and improve air quality, but is hindered by a lack of knowledge of anthropogenic methane sources. Recent work has shown that methane emissions are not evenly distributed in space, or across emission sources, suggesting that a large fraction of anthropogenic methane comes from a few "super-emitters." We studied the distribution of super-emitters in California's southern San Joaquin Valley, where elevated levels of atmospheric CH4 have also been observed from space. Here, we define super-emitters as methane plumes that could be reliably detected (i.e., plume observed more than once in the same location) under varying wind conditions by airborne thermal infrared remote sensing. The detection limit for this technique was determined to be 4.5 kg CH4 h-1 by a controlled release experiment, corresponding to column methane enhancement at the point of emissions greater than 20% above local background levels. We surveyed a major oil production field, and an area with a high concentration of large dairies using a variety of airborne and ground-based measurements. Repeated airborne surveys (n=4) with the Hyperspectral Thermal Emission Spectrometer revealed 28 persistent methane plumes emanating from oil field infrastructure, including tanks, wells, and processing facilities. The likelihood that a given source type was a super-emitter varied from roughly 1/3 for processing facilities to 1/3000 for oil wells. 11 persistent plumes were detected in the dairy area, and all were associated with wet manure management. The majority (11/14) of manure lagoons in the study area were super-emitters. Comparing to a California methane emissions inventory for the surveyed areas, we estimate that super-emitters comprise a minimum of 9% of inventoried dairy emissions, and 13% of inventoried oil emissions in this region.

Anthropogenic influence on the distribution of tropospheric sulphate aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langner, J.; Rodhe, H.; Crutzen, P. J.; Zimmermann, P.

1992-10-01

HUMAN activities have increased global emissions of sulphur gases by about a factor of three during the past century, leading to increased sulphate aerosol concentrations, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. Sulphate aerosols can affect the climate directly, by increasing the backscattering of solar radiation in cloud-free air, and indirectly, by providing additional cloud condensation nuclei1-4. Here we use a global transport-chemistry model to estimate the changes in the distribution of tropospheric sulphate aerosol and deposition of non-seasalt sulphur that have occurred since pre-industrial times. The increase in sulphate aerosol concentration is small over the Southern Hemisphere oceans, but reaches a factor of 100 over northern Europe in winter. Our calculations indicate, however, that at most 6% of the anthropogenic sulphur emissions is available for the formation of new aerosol particles. This is because about one-half of the sulphur dioxide is deposited on the Earth's surface, and most of the remainder is oxidized in cloud droplets so that the sulphate becomes associated with pre-existing particles. Even so, the rate of formation of new sulphate particles may have doubled since pre-industrial times.

CLANIMAE: Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on African Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verschuren, D.; André, L.; Mahy, G.; Cocquyt, C.; Plisnier, P.-D.; Gelorini, V.; Rumes, B.; Lebrun, J.; Bock, L.; Marchant, R.

2009-04-01

Global studies of historical land use focusing on the large-scale landscape change that can potentially affect global climate (via effects on surface albedo, aerosols, and the carbon cycle) have concluded that the impact of pre-colonial East African cultures on regional ecosystems was limited, due to very low mean population density. This contrasts with the paradigm in East African archaeology and paleoecology that the onset of anthropogenic deforestation started at least 2500 years ago, following the introduction of iron metallurgy by Bantu immigrants. This conflict highlights the present lack of real data on historical climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, which are eminently relevant to sustainable natural resource management and biodiversity conservation in a future of continued population growth and global climate change. CLANIMAE responds to the urgent need of a correct long-term perspective to today's climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, by reconstructing simultaneously the histories of past climate change and of vegetation and water-quality changes over the last 2500 years, through multi-disciplinary analysis of dated lake-sediment records. The climate reconstructions integrate information on biological, geochemical and sedimentological indicators of past changes in the water balance of the study lakes, which cover the climatological gradient from (sub-)humid western Uganda to semi-arid eastern Kenya. Reconstruction of past terrestrial vegetation dynamics is based on analyses of fossil plant pollen and phytoliths, plus the fossil spores of fungi associated with the excrements of large domestic animals as indicators of lake use by pastoralists. The evolution of water quality through time is reconstructed using silicon isotopes in diatom algae as proxy indicator for past phytoplankton productivity, and paleoecological analyses of fossil diatoms and aquatic macrophytes, following calibration of diatom and macrophyte species

SPARTAN: a global network to evaluate and enhance satellite-based estimates of ground-level particulate matter for global health applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snider, G.; Weagle, C. L.; Martin, R. V.; van Donkelaar, A.; Conrad, K.; Cunningham, D.; Gordon, C.; Zwicker, M.; Akoshile, C.; Artaxo, P.; Anh, N. X.; Brook, J.; Dong, J.; Garland, R. M.; Greenwald, R.; Griffith, D.; He, K.; Holben, B. N.; Kahn, R.; Koren, I.; Lagrosas, N.; Lestari, P.; Ma, Z.; Vanderlei Martins, J.; Quel, E. J.; Rudich, Y.; Salam, A.; Tripathi, S. N.; Yu, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; Brauer, M.; Cohen, A.; Gibson, M. D.; Liu, Y.

2015-01-01

Ground-based observations have insufficient spatial coverage to assess long-term human exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at the global scale. Satellite remote sensing offers a promising approach to provide information on both short- and long-term exposure to PM2.5 at local-to-global scales, but there are limitations and outstanding questions about the accuracy and precision with which ground-level aerosol mass concentrations can be inferred from satellite remote sensing alone. A key source of uncertainty is the global distribution of the relationship between annual average PM2.5 and discontinuous satellite observations of columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD). We have initiated a global network of ground-level monitoring stations designed to evaluate and enhance satellite remote sensing estimates for application in health-effects research and risk assessment. This Surface PARTiculate mAtter Network (SPARTAN) includes a global federation of ground-level monitors of hourly PM2.5 situated primarily in highly populated regions and collocated with existing ground-based sun photometers that measure AOD. The instruments, a three-wavelength nephelometer and impaction filter sampler for both PM2.5 and PM10, are highly autonomous. Hourly PM2.5 concentrations are inferred from the combination of weighed filters and nephelometer data. Data from existing networks were used to develop and evaluate network sampling characteristics. SPARTAN filters are analyzed for mass, black carbon, water-soluble ions, and metals. These measurements provide, in a variety of regions around the world, the key data required to evaluate and enhance satellite-based PM2.5 estimates used for assessing the health effects of aerosols. Mean PM2.5 concentrations across sites vary by more than 1 order of magnitude. Our initial measurements indicate that the ratio of AOD to ground-level PM2.5 is driven temporally and spatially by the vertical profile in aerosol scattering. Spatially this ratio is

Why do anthropogenic global warming skeptics have poorer scientific credentials than their opponents?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, N. L.

2010-12-01

A paper published in PNAS (1) analyzed the scientific credentials of two groups of activist scientists. The unconvinced by the evidence group included ~500 scientists and technologists who signed various public documents protesting against various aspects of programs to prevent or mitigate anthropogenic global warming. The convinced by the evidence group (~1200 persons) signed public appeals to implement programs to prevent or mitigate AGW. Scientific credentials were measured by publications and citations. The unspoken message of the paper is that we should have confidence in the canonical program of climate change as outlined by, for example, the IPCC, because those who support the program have better scientific credentials than those that don’t. One of the authors of the paper, James Prall, made available on his website lists of several thousand persons, mostly scientists and technologists, who are in one group or the other. The lists include considerable detail, such as publications, citations and education that relates to scientific qualifications. Using Prall’s lists and relevant anecdotal statements by prominent advocates on both sides of the issue I suggest an alternate reason for the disparity in scientific credentials. The PNAS paper in testing scientific credentials counted the number of publications and citations in the area of climate science. There is a certain circularity in using such a test because persons who are professionally employed as climate scientists will naturally have many publications and citations - that is their professional goal. Professional employment in climate science implies adherence to group standards and to some extent beliefs. To give an analogy, if you are a professional freudian psychoanalyst you can’t say that Freud is a crackpot and retain your professional standing. I’m not saying that climate scientists are crackpots, but that there is surely some sort of shared belief and value system whether or not it is

Differentiating between anthropogenic and geological sources of nitrate using multiple geochemical tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linhoff, B.; Norton, S.; Travis, R.; Romero, Z.; Waters, B.

2017-12-01

Nitrate contamination of groundwater is a major problem globally including within the Albuquerque Basin in New Mexico. Ingesting high concentrations of nitrate (> 10 mg/L as N) can lead to an increased risk of cancer and to methemoglobinemia in infants. Numerous anthropogenic sources of nitrate have been identified within the Albuquerque Basin including fertilizers, landfills, multiple sewer pipe releases, sewer lagoons, domestic septic leach fields, and a nitric acid line outfall. Furthermore, groundwater near ephemeral streams often exhibits elevated NO3 concentrations and high NO3/Cl ratios incongruous with an anthropogenic source. These results suggest that NO3 can be concentrated through evaporation beneath ephemeral streams and mobilized via irrigation or land use change. This study seeks to use extensive geochemical analyses of groundwater and surface water to differentiate between various sources of NO3 contamination. The U.S. Geological Survey collected 54 groundwater samples from wells and six samples from ephemeral streams from within and from outside of areas of known nitrate contamination. To fingerprint the sources of nitrate pollution, samples were analyzed for major ions, trace metals, nutrients, dissolved gases, δ15N and δ18O in NO3, δ15N within N2 gas, and, δ2H and δ18O in H2O. Furthermore, most sites were sampled for artificial sweeteners and numerous contaminants of emerging concern including pharmaceutical drugs, caffeine, and wastewater indicators. This study will also investigate the age distribution of groundwater and the approximate age of anthropogenic NO3 contamination using 3He/4He, δ13C, 14C, 3H, as well as pharmaceutical drugs and artificial sweeteners with known patent and U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval dates. This broad suite of analytes will be used to differentiate between naturally occurring and multiple anthropogenic NO3 sources, and to potentially determine the approximate date of NO3 contamination.

Holocene key coral species in the Northwest Pacific: indicators of reef formation and reef ecosystem responses to global climate change and anthropogenic stresses in the near future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hongo, Chuki

2012-03-01

The geological record of key coral species that contribute to reef formation and maintenance of reef ecosystems is important for understanding the ecosystem response to global-scale climate change and anthropogenic stresses in the near future. Future responses can be predicted from accumulated data on Holocene reef species identified in drillcore and from data on raised reef terraces. The present study analyzes a dataset based on 27 drillcores, raised reef terraces, and 134 radiocarbon and U-Th ages from reefs of the Northwest Pacific, with the aim of examining the role of key coral species in reef growth and maintenance for reef ecosystem during Holocene sea-level change. The results indicate a latitudinal change in key coral species: arborescent Acropora (Acropora intermedia and Acropora muricata) was the dominant reef builder at reef crests in the tropics, whereas Porites (Porites australiensis, Porites lutea, and Porites lobata) was the dominant contributor to reef growth in the subtropics between 10,000 and 7000 cal. years BP (when the rate of sea-level rise was 10 m/ka). Acropora digitifera, Acropora hyacinthus, Acropora robusta/A. abrotanoides, Isopora palifera, Favia stelligera, and Goniastrea retiformis from the corymbose and tabular Acropora facies were the main key coral species at reef crests between 7000 and 5000 cal. years BP (when the rate of sea-level rise was 5 m/ka) and during the following period of stable sea-level. Massive Porites (P. australiensis, P. lutea, and P. lobata) contributed to reef growth in shallow lagoons during the period of stable sea level. Key coral species from the corymbose and tabular Acropora facies have the potential to build reefs and maintain ecosystems in the near future under a global sea-level rise of 2-6 m/ka, as do key coral species from the arborescent Acropora facies and massive Porites facies, which show vigorous growth and are tolerant to relatively deep-water, low-energy environments. However, these species

Importance of Anthropogenic Aerosols for Climate Prediction: a Study on East Asian Sulfate Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Climate prediction is vital to ensure that we are able to adapt to our changing climate. Understandably, the main focus for such prediction is greenhouse gas forcing, as this will be the main anthropogenic driver of long-term global climate change; however, other forcings could still be important. Atmospheric aerosols represent one such forcing, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia; yet, uncertainty in their future emissions are under-sampled by commonly used climate forcing projections, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Globally, anthropogenic aerosols exert a net cooling, but their effects show large variation at regional scales. Studies have shown that aerosols impact locally upon temperature, precipitation and hydroclimate, and also upon larger scale atmospheric circulation (for example, the Asian monsoon) with implications for climate remote from aerosol sources. We investigate how future climate could evolve differently given the same greenhouse gas forcing pathway but differing aerosol emissions. Specifically, we use climate modelling experiments (using HadGEM2-ES) of two scenarios based upon RCP2.6 greenhouse gas forcing but with large differences in sulfur dioxide emissions over East Asia. Results show that increased sulfate aerosols (associated with increased sulfur dioxide) lead to large regional cooling through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Focussing on dynamical mechanisms, we explore the consequences of this cooling for the Asian summer and winter monsoons. In addition to local temperature and precipitation changes, we find significant changes to large scale atmospheric circulation. Wave-like responses to upper-level atmospheric changes propagate across the northern hemisphere with far-reaching effects on surface climate, for example, cooling over Europe. Within the tropics, we find alterations to zonal circulation (notably, shifts in the Pacific Walker cell) and monsoon

How will coastal sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J.; Grinsted, A.

2010-12-01

Sea level rise is perhaps the most damaging repercussion of global warming, as 150 million people live less than one meter above current high tides .Using an inverse statistical model we examine potential response in coastal sea level to the changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100. With six IPCC radiative forcing scenarios we estimate sea level rise of 0.6-1.6 m, with confidence limits of 0.59 m and 1.8 m. Projected impacts of solar and volcanic radiative forcings account only for, at maximum, 5% of total sea level rise, with anthropogenic greenhouse gasses being the dominant forcing. As alternatives to the IPCC projections, even the most intense century of volcanic forcing from the past 1000 years would result in 10-15 cm potential reduction of sea level rise. Stratospheric injections of SO2 equivalent to a Pinatubo eruption every 4 years would effectively just delay sea level rise by 12 -20 years.

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

2016-01-01

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

From smallpox eradication to contemporary global health initiatives: enhancing human capacity towards a global public health goal.

PubMed

Tarantola, Daniel; Foster, Stanley O

2011-12-30

The eradication of smallpox owes its success first and foremost to the thousands of lay health workers and community members who, throughout the campaign and across continents, took on the roles of advocates, educators, vaccinators, care providers and contributors to epidemic surveillance and containment. Bangladesh provides a good example where smallpox eradication and the capacity enhancement needed to achieve this goal resulted in a two-way mutually beneficial process. Smallpox-dedicated staff provided community members with information guidance, support and tools. In turn, communities not only created the enabling environment for smallpox program staff to perform their work but acquired the capacity to perform essential eradication tasks. Contemporary global health programmes can learn much from these core lessons including: the pivotal importance of supporting community aspirations, capacity and resilience; the critical need to enhance commitment, capacity and accountability across the workforce; and the high value of attentive human resources management and support. We owe to subsequent global disease control, elimination and eradication ventures recognition of the need for social and behavioural science to inform public health strategies; the essential roles that civil society organizations and public-private partnerships can play in public health discourse and action; the overall necessity of investing in broad-based health system strengthening; and the utility of applying human rights principles, norms and standards to public health policy and practice. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin; Peregon, Anna; Ciais, Philippe; Canadell, Josep G.; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Etiope, Giuseppe; Bastviken, David; Houweling, Sander;

Relative importance of natural and anthropogenic factors influencing karst rocky desertification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Erqi; Zhang, Hongqi

2017-04-01

As the most severe ecological issue in southwest China, karst rocky desertification (KRD) has both threatened and constrained regional sustainable development. Comprehensively understanding the relationship between the evolution of KRD and relevant driving data would provide more information to combat KRD in such complex karst environments. Past studies have been limited in quantifying the relative importance of driving factors influencing fine-scale KRD evolution, and have also lacked insight into their interactive impacts. To address these issues, we have used geographical information system techniques and a geographical detector model to explore the spatial consistency of driving factors and their interactions in relation to the evolution of KRD. Changshun County in China was selected as a representative area for the study. Nine relevant driving factors, including both natural and anthropogenic factors, were studied in regard to their relationships with KRD transformation between 2000 and 2010. Our results demonstrate the relative importance of driving data in influencing the improvement and deterioration of KRD. Lithology, soil type and road influence are identified as the leading factors. Interestingly, to our study at least, there is no significant difference between the impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors influencing KRD improvement, and even natural factors have a higher impact on KRD deterioration. Factors were found to enhance the influence of each other for KRD transformation. In particular, the results show a non-linearly enhanced effect between driving factors, which significantly aggravates KRD. New information found in our study helps to effectively control and restore areas afflicted by KRD.

Is atmospheric phosphorus pollution altering global alpine Lake stoichiometry?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brahney, Janice; Mahowald, Natalie; Ward, Daniel S.; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Neff, Jason C.

2015-09-01

Anthropogenic activities have significantly altered atmospheric chemistry and changed the global mobility of key macronutrients. Here we show that contemporary global patterns in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) emissions drive large hemispheric variation in precipitation chemistry. These global patterns of nutrient emission and deposition (N:P) are in turn closely reflected in the water chemistry of naturally oligotrophic lakes (r2 = 0.81, p < 0.0001). Observed increases in anthropogenic N deposition play a role in nutrient concentrations (r2 = 0.20, p < 0.05) however, atmospheric deposition of P appears to be major contributor to this pattern (r2 = 0.65, p < 0.0001). Atmospheric simulations indicate a global increase in P deposition by 1.4 times the preindustrial rate largely due to increased dust and biomass burning emissions. Although changes in the mass flux of global P deposition are smaller than for N, the impacts on primary productivity may be greater because, on average, one unit of increased P deposition has 16 times the influence of one unit of N deposition. These stoichiometric considerations, combined with the evidence presented here, suggest that increases in P deposition may be a major driver of alpine Lake trophic status, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. These results underscore the need for the broader scientific community to consider the impact of atmospheric phosphorus deposition on the water quality of naturally oligotrophic lakes.

Quantitative Assessment on Anthropogenic Contributions to the Rainfall Extremes Associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. T.; Lo, S. H.; Wang, C. C.; Tsuboki, K.

2017-12-01

More than 2000 mm rainfall occurred over southern Taiwan when a category 1 Typhoon Morakot pass through Taiwan in early August 2009. Entire village and hundred of people were buried by massive mudslides induced by record-breaking precipitation. Whether the past anthropogenic warming played a significant role in such extreme event remained very controversial. On one hand, people argue it's nearly impossible to attribute an individual extreme event to global warming. On the other hand, the increase of heavy rainfall is consistent with the expected effects of climate change on tropical cyclone. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Morakot, we adapt an existing probabilistic event attribution framework to simulate a `world that was' and compare it with an alternative condition, 'world that might have been' that removed the historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. One limitation for applying such approach to high-impact weather system is that it will require models capable of capturing the essential processes lead to the studied extremes. Using a cloud system resolving model that can properly simulate the complicated interactions between tropical cyclone, large-scale background, topography, we first perform the ensemble `world that was' simulations using high resolution ECMWF YOTC analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the analysis to `world that might have been conditions' by removing the regional atmospheric and oceanic forcing due to human influences estimated from the CMIP5 model ensemble mean conditions between all forcing and natural forcing only historical runs. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible contribution of anthropogenic forcing to changes in the likelihood of heavy rainfall associated Typhoon Morakot in early August 2009.

Contributions to Pliocene Arctic warmth from removal of anthropogenic aerosol and enhanced forest fire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Fletcher, T.; Ballantyne, A.; Brady, E. C.

2016-12-01

Changing atmosphere chemistry in the past has been hypothesized to have altered the earth's radiation budget, and hence the climate. Here, we use an advanced climate model to test whether this hypothesis can help explain the amplified warming in the northern high latitudes during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.0 - 3.3 Ma). The amplified warming, suggested by terrestrial proxy records of northern high latitudes, is underestimated in previous climate simulations. This mismatch between observations and models may be partially due to proxy uncertainties, but also to insufficient model sensitivity, or incomplete knowledge of mPWP climate forcings. To explore the latter aspect, we conducted three coupled simulations using the same mPWP geography and topography, vegetation and CO2 level according to the PRISM3 reconstructions, but alternating emission scenarios among clean, polluted, and clean plus forest fire case. In the clean and polluted case, year-1850 emission and year-1850 natural plus year-2000 industrial emission are prescribed respectively. For the clean-plus-forest fire simulation, emissions from mPWP forest fire are constrained with a process-based prognostic fire model using fixed proxy SSTs. Preliminary results suggest that mPWP Arctic warmth is largely attributable to the removal of anthropogenic aerosols and enhanced deposition of the black carbon on snow and ice emitted from northern high latitude forest fires. Cloud radiative responses are shown to accelerate the summer sea ice melting from the continental margins, triggering the positive surface albedo and water vapor feedback that maintain a low perennial sea ice state in the Arctic Ocean. These results identify the important role that changes in aerosol chemistry may play in amplifying arctic surface temperatures of mPWP and insights on the role that aerosols may play in amplifying future Arctic temperatures.

MO-E-18C-05: Global Health Catalyst: A Novel Platform for Enhancing Access to Medical Physics Education and Research Excellence (AMPERE)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ngwa, W; University of Massachusetts, Lowell, Massachusetts; Moreau, M

Purpose: To develop a platform for catalyzing collaborative global Cancer Care Education and Research (CaRE), with a prime focus on enhancing Access to Medical Physics Education and Research Excellence (AMPERE) Methods: An analysis of over 50 global health collaborations between partners in the U.S. and low and middle income countries (LMIC) in Africa was carried out to assess the models of collaborations in Education and Research and relative success. A survey was carried out with questions including: the nature of the collaboration, how it was initiated, impact of culture and other factors, and recommendations for catalyzing/enhancing such collaborations. An onlinemore » platform called Global Health Catalyst was developed for enhancing AMPERE. Results: The analysis yielded three main models for global health collaborations with survey providing key recommendations on how to enhance such collaborations. Based on this, the platform was developed, and customized to allow Medical Physicists and other Radiation oncology (RadOnc) professionals interested in participating in Global health to readily do so e.g. teach an online course module, participate in training Medical Physicists or other RadOnc health professionals in LMIC, co-mentor students, residents or postdocs, etc. The growing list of features on the platform also include: a feature to enable people to easily find each other, form teams, operate more effectively as partners from different disciplines, institutions, nations and cultural backgrounds, share tools and technologies, obtain seed funding to develop curricula and/or embark upon new areas of investigation, and participate in humanitarian outreach: remote treatment planning assistance, and participation in virtual Chart Rounds, etc. Conclusion: The developed Global Health Catalyst platform could enable any Medical Physicist or RadoOnc professional interested in global health to readily participate in the Education/training of next generation Rad

Gridded anthropogenic emissions inventory and atmospheric transport of carbonyl sulfide in the U.S.: U.S. Anthropogenic COS Source and Transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zumkehr, Andrew; Hilton, Timothy W.; Whelan, Mary

Carbonyl sulfide (COS or OCS), the most abundant sulfur containing gas in the troposphere, has recently emerged as a potentially important atmospheric tracer for the carbon cycle. Atmospheric inverse modeling studies may be able to use existing tower, airborne, and satellite observations of COS to infer information about photosynthesis. However, such analysis relies on gridded anthropogenic COS source estimates that are largely based on industry activity data from over three decades ago. Here we use updated emission factor data and industry activity data to develop a gridded inventory with a 0.1 degree resolution for the U.S. domain. The inventory includesmore » the primary anthropogenic COS sources including direct emissions from the coal and aluminum industries as well as indirect sources from industrial carbon disulfide emissions. Compared to the previously published inventory, we found that the total anthropogenic source (direct and indirect) is 47% smaller. Using this new gridded inventory to drive the STEM/WRF atmospheric transport model, we found that the anthropogenic contribution to COS variation in the troposphere is small relative to the biosphere influence, which is encouraging of carbon cycle applications in this region. Additional anthropogenic sectors with highly uncertain emission factors require further field measurements.« less

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, Pardeep; Patricola, Christina; Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Paciorek, Christopher; Collins, William

2015-04-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during early September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico against the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods across the South Platte River basin impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall, we adapt an existing event attribution paradigm of modelling an 'event that was' for September 2013 and comparing it to a modelled 'event that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. Specifically, we first perform 'event that was' simulations with the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12 km resolution over North America, driven by NCEP2 re-analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the re-analysis to 'event that might have been conditions' by modifying atmospheric greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations, temperature, humidity, and winds, as well as sea ice coverage, and sea-surface temperatures - all according to estimates from global climate model simulations. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving re-analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible mechanisms responsible for heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. Our model results suggests that, given an insignificant change in the pattern of large-scale driving weather, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour under anthropogenic climate warming leading to a substantial increase in the probability of heavy rainfall occurring over the South Platte River basin in September 2013.

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, P.; Patricola, C. M.; Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during early September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico against the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall, we adapt an existing event attribution paradigm of modelling a 'world that was' for September 2013 and comparing it to a modelled 'world that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. Specifically, we first perform 'world that was' simulations with the regional WRF model at 12 km resolution over North America, driven by NCEP2 re-analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the re-analysis to 'world that might have been conditions' by modifying atmospheric greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations, temperature, humidity, and winds, as well as sea ice coverage, and sea-surface temperatures - all according to estimates from global climate model simulations. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving re-analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible mechanisms responsible for heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. For example, preliminary analysis suggests that, given no change in the pattern of large-scale driving weather, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour under anthropogenic climate warming leading to a substantial increase in the odds of heavy rainfall over the Front Range.

Isotopic fingerprints of anthropogenic molybdenum in lake sediments.

PubMed

Chappaz, Anthony; Lyons, Timothy W; Gordon, Gwyneth W; Anbar, Ariel D

2012-10-16

We measured the molybdenum isotope compositions (δ(98)Mo) of well-dated sediment cores from two lakes in eastern Canada in an effort to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic contributions to these freshwater aquatic systems. Previously, Chappaz et al. (1) ascribed pronounced 20th-century Mo concentration enrichments in these lakes to anthropogenic inputs. δ(98)Mo values in the deeper sediments (reflecting predominantly natural Mo sources) differ dramatically between the two lakes: -0.32 ± 0.17‰ for oxic Lake Tantare and +0.64 ± 0.09‰ for anoxic Lake Vose. Sediment layers previously identified as enriched in anthropogenic Mo, however, reveal significant δ(98)Mo shifts of ± 0.3‰, resulting in isotopically heavier values of +0.05 ± 0.18‰ in Lake Tantare and lighter values of +0.31 ± 0.03‰ in Lake Vose. We argue that anthropogenic Mo modifies the isotopic composition of the recent sediments, and we determine δ(98)Mo(anthropogenic) values of 0.1 ± 0.1‰ (Lake Vose) and 0.2 ± 0.2‰ (Lake Tantare). These calculated inputs are consistent with the δ(98)Mo of molybdenite (MoS(2)) likely delivered to the lakes via smelting of porphyry copper deposits (Lake Vose) or through combustion of coal and oil also containing Mo (Lake Tantare). Our results confirm the utility of Mo isotopes as a promising fingerprint of human impacts and perhaps the specific sources of contamination. Importantly, the magnitudes of the anthropogenic inputs are large enough, relative to the natural Mo cycles in each lake, to have an impact on the microbiological communities.

Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Ryghaug, Marianne; Sørensen, Knut Holtan; Naess, Robert

2011-11-01

This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics.

Anthropogenic ``Global Warming'' Alarmism: Illuminating some Scientific and Methodological Flaws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, Larry

2009-10-01

There continues to be an increasing number of scientists and public figures around the world who are challenging the dominant political- and mediadriven claims that have been bolstered by so-called ``consensus'' scientific views -- that dangerous ``global warming/climate change'' is caused primarily by human-produced carbon dioxide. This general talk will show that the weight of scientific evidence strongly contradicts the alarmist claims. It will also explain what are some of the methodological flaws that continue to threaten the scientific method.

Assessing global radiative forcing due to regional emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors: a step towards climate credit for ozone reductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauzerall, D. L.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Schwarzkopf, D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Oppenheimer, M.

2005-05-01

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel consumption are presented for the five Asian countries that are among the global leaders in anthropogenic carbon emissions: China (13% of global total), Japan (5% of global total), India (5% of global total), South Korea (2% of global total), and Indonesia (1% of global total). Together, these five countries represent over a quarter of the world's fossil-fuel based carbon emissions. Moreover, these countries are rapidly developing and energy demand has grown dramatically in the last two decades. A method is developed to estimate the spatial and seasonal flux of fossil-fuel consumption, thereby greatly improving the temporal and spatial resolution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. Currently, only national annual data for anthropogenic carbon emissions are available, and as such, no understanding of seasonal or sub-national patterns of emissions are possible. This methodology employs fuel distribution data from representative sectors of the fossil-fuel market to determine the temporal and spatial patterns of fuel consumption. These patterns of fuel consumption are then converted to patterns of carbon emissions. The annual total emissions estimates produced by this method are consistent to those maintained by the United Nations. Improved estimates of temporal and spatial resolution of the human based carbon emissions allows for better projections about future energy demands, carbon emissions, and ultimately the global carbon cycle.

The response of European and Asian climate to global and regional aerosol emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, Laura; Dunstone, Nick; Highwood, Eleanor; Bollasina, Massimo; Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan

2017-04-01

Asia has the world's highest anthropogenic aerosol loading and has experienced a dramatic increase in emissions since the 1950s, which has continued in the 21st century, in stark contrast with European (and North American) emissions which started to decrease in the 1970s. We use a set of transient coupled model experiments (HadGEM2-GC2) to explore the regional climate effects of anthropogenic aerosol changes since the 1980s, with a focus on the European and Asian responses. Comparing simulations with globally varying aerosol emissions to an equivalent set with Asian emissions fixed at their 1971-1980 mean over Asia, we identify the contribution of Asian emissions to the total impact. Identifying thermodynamic and dynamic responses to global and regional aerosol changes, we diagnose atmospheric teleconnections and their interactions with local processes, and the mechanisms by which aerosol affects both European and Asian climate. It is found that Asian aerosols led to substantial changes in Asian climate, weakening the summer monsoon, which is a key driver of the observed precipitation changes there in recent decades. Asian emissions are also able to induce planetary-scale teleconnection patterns in both winter and summer. The impact of the regional diabatic heating anomaly propagates remotely by exciting northern hemisphere wave-trains which, enhanced by regional feedbacks, cause changes in near-surface climate over Europe. To examine the robustness of the mechanisms we identify in HadGEM2, we analyse similar sets of experiments from NorESM1-M and GFDL-CM3: models with very different climatologies and representations of aerosol processes.

Latitudinal gradient of nitrous oxide: inferring source distribution from global measurements and model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishijima, K.; Kort, E. A.; Crotwell, A. M.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Patra, P. K.; Tans, P. P.; Wofsy, S. C.

2010-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) plays major role in the earth’s climate system through global warming and stratospheric ozone depletion. Recent observations from the HIPPO (Hiaper Pole to Pole Observations) campaign suggest enhanced N2O concentrations in lower and middle troposphere over tropical latitudes. However, the Atmospheric general circulation model-based Chemistry Transport model (ACTM) failed to simulate such features as in the measured N2O. We confirmed no systematic differences in ACTM and HIPPO latitudinal gradients exist for other long-lived species in the troposphere, e.g., sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Further, we use measurements of all species from discrete samples collected at Earth's surface from NOAA/ESRL's global cooperative air sampling network to identify potential deficiencies in N2O simulations alone, which is unlikely to be arising from model transport error. We find that ACTM simulation is successfully capturing the increase in N2O by ~2 ppb from 30S to 30N, but always overestimate for the latitudes north of 30N. The latitudinal distributions of N2O emissions from all-anthropogenic, natural soil and ocean show the largest anthropogenic emission at 45-60N, which is based on the emission database developed in the 1990s. A net decrease in N2O emission in the mid-/high latitude region might have occurred in the past couple of years or earlier emission inventories overestimated the northern high latitude N2O emission.

Effects of anthropogenic surfactants on the conversion of marine dissolved organic carbon and microgels.

PubMed

Shiu, Ruei-Feng; Lee, Chon-Lin

2017-04-15

The possible impact of three types of anthropogenic surfactants on the ability of marine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to form self-assembled microgels was evaluated. The behavior of existing native microgels was also examined in the presence of surfactants. These results reveal that the release of surfactants even at low concentrations into the aquatic environment could effectively hinder the self-assembly of DOC polymers. The extent of the size reduction had the following order: anionic, cationic, and non-ionic. Furthermore, charged surfactants can disrupt existing native microgels, converting large assemblies into smaller particles. One possible mechanisms is that surfactants are able to enhance the stability of DOC polymers and disrupt aggregates due to their surface charges and protein-denaturing activities. These findings suggest that the ecological system is altered by anthropogenic surfactants, and provide useful information for ecological assessments of different types of surfactants and raise warnings about surfactant applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Condensed-phase biogenic-anthropogenic interactions with implications for cold cloud formation

DOE PAGES

Charnawskas, Joseph C.; Alpert, Peter A.; Lambe, Andrew; ...

2017-01-24

Anthropogenic and biogenic gas emissions contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). When present, soot particles from fossil-fuel combustion can acquire a coating of SOA. We investigate SOA-soot biogenic-anthropogenic interactions and their impact on ice nucleation in relation to the particles’ organic phase state. SOA particles were generated from the OH oxidation of naphthalene, α-pinene, longifolene, or isoprene, with or without presence of sulfate or soot particles. Corresponding particle glass transition (T g) and full deliquescence relative humidity (FDRH) were estimated by a numerical diffusion model. Longifolene SOA particles are solid-like and all biogenic SOA sulfate mixtures exhibitmore » a core-shell configuration (i.e. a sulfate-rich core coated with SOA). Biogenic SOA with or without sulfate formed ice at conditions expected for homogeneous ice nucleation in agreement with respective T g and FDRH. α-pinene SOA coated soot particles nucleated ice above the homogeneous freezing temperature with soot acting as ice nuclei (IN). At lower temperatures the α-pinene SOA coating can be semisolid inducing ice nucleation. Naphthalene SOA coated soot particles acted as IN above and below the homogeneous freezing limit, which can be explained by the presence of a highly viscous SOA phase. Our results suggest that biogenic SOA does not play a significant role in mixed-phase cloud formation and the presence of sulfate further renders this even less likely. Furthermore, anthropogenic SOA may have an enhancing effect on cloud glaciation under mixed-phase and cirrus cloud conditions compared to biogenic SOA that dominate during preindustrial times or in pristine areas.« less

Condensed-phase biogenic–anthropogenic interactions with implications for cold cloud formation

DOE PAGES

Charnawskas, Joseph C.; Alpert, Peter A.; Lambe, Andrew T.; ...

2017-01-24

Anthropogenic and biogenic gas emissions contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). When present, soot particles from fossil fuel combustion can acquire a coating of SOA. We investigate SOA–soot biogenic–anthropogenic interactions and their impact on ice nucleation in relation to the particles’ organic phase state. SOA particles were generated from the OH oxidation of naphthalene, α-pinene, longifolene, or isoprene, with or without the presence of sulfate or soot particles. Corresponding particle glass transition (T g) and full deliquescence relative humidity (FDRH) were estimated using a numerical diffusion model. Longifolene SOA particles are solid-like and all biogenic SOA sulfatemore » mixtures exhibit a core–shell configuration (i.e.a sulfate-rich core coated with SOA). Biogenic SOA with or without sulfate formed ice at conditions expected for homogeneous ice nucleation, in agreement with respectiveT gand FDRH. α-pinene SOA coated soot particles nucleated ice above the homogeneous freezing temperature with soot acting as ice nuclei (IN). At lower temperatures the α-pinene SOA coating can be semisolid, inducing ice nucleation. Naphthalene SOA coated soot particles acted as ice nuclei above and below the homogeneous freezing limit, which can be explained by the presence of a highly viscous SOA phase. Our results suggest that biogenic SOA does not play a significant role in mixed-phase cloud formation and the presence of sulfate renders this even less likely. However, anthropogenic SOA may have an enhancing effect on cloud glaciation under mixed-phase and cirrus cloud conditions compared to biogenic SOA that dominate during pre-industrial times or in pristine areas.« less

Condensed-phase biogenic-anthropogenic interactions with implications for cold cloud formation.

PubMed

Charnawskas, Joseph C; Alpert, Peter A; Lambe, Andrew T; Berkemeier, Thomas; O'Brien, Rachel E; Massoli, Paola; Onasch, Timothy B; Shiraiwa, Manabu; Moffet, Ryan C; Gilles, Mary K; Davidovits, Paul; Worsnop, Douglas R; Knopf, Daniel A

2017-08-24

Anthropogenic and biogenic gas emissions contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). When present, soot particles from fossil fuel combustion can acquire a coating of SOA. We investigate SOA-soot biogenic-anthropogenic interactions and their impact on ice nucleation in relation to the particles' organic phase state. SOA particles were generated from the OH oxidation of naphthalene, α-pinene, longifolene, or isoprene, with or without the presence of sulfate or soot particles. Corresponding particle glass transition (T g ) and full deliquescence relative humidity (FDRH) were estimated using a numerical diffusion model. Longifolene SOA particles are solid-like and all biogenic SOA sulfate mixtures exhibit a core-shell configuration (i.e. a sulfate-rich core coated with SOA). Biogenic SOA with or without sulfate formed ice at conditions expected for homogeneous ice nucleation, in agreement with respective T g and FDRH. α-pinene SOA coated soot particles nucleated ice above the homogeneous freezing temperature with soot acting as ice nuclei (IN). At lower temperatures the α-pinene SOA coating can be semisolid, inducing ice nucleation. Naphthalene SOA coated soot particles acted as ice nuclei above and below the homogeneous freezing limit, which can be explained by the presence of a highly viscous SOA phase. Our results suggest that biogenic SOA does not play a significant role in mixed-phase cloud formation and the presence of sulfate renders this even less likely. However, anthropogenic SOA may have an enhancing effect on cloud glaciation under mixed-phase and cirrus cloud conditions compared to biogenic SOA that dominate during pre-industrial times or in pristine areas.

Amounts, isotopic character and ages of organic and inorganic carbon exported from rivers to ocean margins: Assessment of natural and anthropogenic controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, J. E.; Hossler, K.

2012-12-01

Riverine exports of carbon (C) and organic matter (OM) are regulated by a variety of natural and anthropogenic factors. Understanding the relationships between these various factors and C and OM exports can help to constrain global C budgets, as well allow assessment of current and future anthropogenic impacts on both riverine and global C cycles. We quantified the effects of multiple natural and anthropogenic controls on riverine export fluxes and compositions of particulate organic C (POC), dissolved organic C (DOC), and dissolved inorganic C (DIC) for a regional group of eight rivers in the northeastern U.S. For allochthonous and aged C contributions to POC, DOC and DIC exports, we first estimated fractional contributions from six potential sources for POC and DOC (i.e., modern C3 plant material (C3-OC), modern C4 plant material (C4-OC), modern algal material (algal OC), slow-turnover soil OC (slow SOC; turnover time 25 yr), passive-turnover soil OC (passive SOC; turnover time 5,000 yr) and fossil OC and four potential sources for DIC (i.e., modern atmospheric CO2 exchange, carbonate dissolution, POC remineralization and DOC remineralization) using a novel time-varying isotope mixing model. Using these estimated source contributions, we then estimated the allochthonous proportions of (a) the POC and DOC pools to be the C3-OC, C4-OC, slow SOC, passive SOC, and fossil OC contributions; and (b) the DIC pools to be the dissolved carbonates, remineralized allochthonous POC, and remineralized allochthonous DOC contributions. We considered aged C to be anything older than ˜ 60 yr, which included passive SOC and fossil OC for POC and DOC and dissolved carbonates and aged fractions of remineralized POC and DOC for DIC. Potential controls related to hydrogeomorphology and regional climate, soil order, soil texture, bedrock lithology, land use, and additional anthropogenic factors were analyzed collectively, individually, and at scales of both local and regional influence

Plant ecology. Anthropogenic environmental changes affect ecosystem stability via biodiversity.

PubMed

Hautier, Yann; Tilman, David; Isbell, Forest; Seabloom, Eric W; Borer, Elizabeth T; Reich, Peter B

2015-04-17

Human-driven environmental changes may simultaneously affect the biodiversity, productivity, and stability of Earth's ecosystems, but there is no consensus on the causal relationships linking these variables. Data from 12 multiyear experiments that manipulate important anthropogenic drivers, including plant diversity, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, fire, herbivory, and water, show that each driver influences ecosystem productivity. However, the stability of ecosystem productivity is only changed by those drivers that alter biodiversity, with a given decrease in plant species numbers leading to a quantitatively similar decrease in ecosystem stability regardless of which driver caused the biodiversity loss. These results suggest that changes in biodiversity caused by drivers of environmental change may be a major factor determining how global environmental changes affect ecosystem stability. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Modelling of Soluble Iron Formation, Transport and Deposition to the North Pacific Ocean, Role of Anthropogenic Pollutants.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solmon, F.; Chuang, P.; Meskhidze, N.

2006-12-01

Soluble iron deposited via atmospheric processes represents an important nutrient for open ocean ecosystems, which might influence phytoplancton productivity and atmospheric carbon uptake. Atmospheric deposition of mineral dust is known to be the essential supply of iron to the ocean. However, most of the iron contained in mineral particles is unsoluble, whereas only the soluble fraction of the iron is thought to be effectively bio-available. There is still a great deal of uncertainties in the estimation of this fraction and the representation of iron solubilisation processes in the atmosphere. In this scope, we present a modeling study aiming at better representing such processes. In particular, we focus on the different roles of anthropogenic chemical compounds in the atmospheric iron cycle and deposition. These roles are of two orders : (i) the acidification of mineral particles by anthropogenic compounds influencing the solubilisation of the iron transported and (ii) the direct emission, transport and deposition of iron emitted by anthropogenic activities. For this study, we implement a set of specific mechanisms in the global chemistry transport model GEOS- CHEM. Our study focuses on the East Asia - North pacific outflow, a region where interactions between dust and pollution are particularly likely to occur and where the ocean ecosystem is known to be iron limited.

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Held, Isaac M.; Leetmaa, Ants; Harrison, Matthew J.

2006-05-01

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean-driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east-known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.

Variability of Marine Aerosol Fine-Mode Fraction and Estimates of Anthropogenic Aerosol Component Over Cloud-Free Oceans from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Hongbin; Chin, Mian; Remer, Lorraine A.; Kleidman, Richard G.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Bian, Huisheng; Diehl, Thomas

2009-01-01

In this study, we examine seasonal and geographical variability of marine aerosol fine-mode fraction (f(sub m)) and its impacts on deriving the anthropogenic component of aerosol optical depth (tau(sub a)) and direct radiative forcing from multispectral satellite measurements. A proxy of f(sub m), empirically derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 data, shows large seasonal and geographical variations that are consistent with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) model simulations. The so-derived seasonally and spatially varying f(sub m) is then implemented into a method of estimating tau(sub a) and direct radiative forcing from the MODIS measurements. It is found that the use of a constant value for fm as in previous studies would have overestimated Ta by about 20% over global ocean, with the overestimation up to 45% in some regions and seasons. The 7-year (2001-2007) global ocean average tau(sub a) is 0.035, with yearly average ranging from 0.031 to 0.039. Future improvement in measurements is needed to better separate anthropogenic aerosol from natural ones and to narrow down the wide range of aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Sea-level rise in New Jersey over the past 5000 years: Implications to anthropogenic changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Kenneth G.; Sugarman, Peter J.; Browning, James V.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Stanley, Alissa; Kahn, Alicia; Uptegrove, Jane; Aucott, Michael

2009-01-01

We present a mid to late Holocene sea-level record derived from drilling the New Jersey coast that shows a relatively constant rise of 1.8??mm/yr from ~ 5000 to 500 calibrated calendar years before present (yrBP). This contrasts with previous New Jersey estimates that showed only 0.5??mm/yr rise since 2000??yrBP. Comparison with other Mid-Atlantic sea-level records (Delaware to southern New England) indicates surprising uniformity considering different proximities to the peripheral bulge of the Laurentide ice sheet, with a relative rise throughout the region of ~ 1.7-1.9??mm/yr since ~ 5000??yrBP. This regional sea-level rise includes both: 1) global sea-level (eustatic) rise; and 2) far-field geoidal subsidence (estimated as ~ 0.8-1.4??mm/yr today) due to removal of the Laurentide ice sheet and water loading. Correcting for geoidal subsidence, the U.S. east coast records suggest a global sea-level (eustatic) rise of ~ 0.4-1.0??mm/yr (with a best estimate of 0.7 ?? 0.3??mm/yr) since 5000??yrBP. Comparison with other records provides a best estimate of pre-anthropogenic global sea-level rise of < 1.0??mm/yr from 5000 until ~ 200??yrBP. Tide gauge data indicate a 20th century rate of eustatic rise of 1.8??mm/yr, whereas both tide gauge and satellite data suggest an increase in the rate of rise to ~ 3.3??mm/yr from 1993-2006 AD. This indicates that the modern rise (~ 3.3??mm/yr) is significantly higher than the pre-anthropogenic rise (0.7 ?? 0.3??mm/yr). ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The response of the East Asia summer precipitation to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Fangxing; Dong, Buwen; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan

2017-04-01

The changes of precipitation over China since the mid-20th century display a dipole trend pattern over eastern China, which is known as Southern-Flood-Northern-Drought (SFND) pattern. The trends have been attributed to different factors, such as the changes of aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions. However much less is known about the different effects of these factors on generating the SFND pattern. This work investigated the drivers and dynamical mechanisms by using a atmosphere-ocean-mixed-layer model forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gase (GHG), anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and the combined effects. The model experiments with different forcings indicates that the GHG forcing dominates the precipitation increase, which is stronger over south China than over north China. On the other hand, the drought over north China is dominated by the AA forcing. Analysis of physical processes indicates that the GHG forcing increases the moisture and leads to strong convergence over east China, and then more precipitation. The AA forcing leads to north wind anomalies and generates divergent anomalies over north China, which reduces the precipitation. Further analysis indicates that the changes of the circulation which related to the SFND pattern are forced by the enhancement of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH). Both GHG and AA forcing can enhance the WNPSH by changing the local Hadley cell.

Distribution and drivers of global mangrove forest change, 1996-2010.

PubMed

Thomas, Nathan; Lucas, Richard; Bunting, Peter; Hardy, Andrew; Rosenqvist, Ake; Simard, Marc

2017-01-01

For the period 1996-2010, we provide the first indication of the drivers behind mangrove land cover and land use change across the (pan-)tropics using time-series Japanese Earth Resources Satellite (JERS-1) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array-type L-band SAR (PALSAR) data. Multi-temporal radar mosaics were manually interpreted for evidence of loss and gain in forest extent and its associated driver. Mangrove loss as a consequence of human activities was observed across their entire range. Between 1996-2010 12% of the 1168 1°x1° radar mosaic tiles examined contained evidence of mangrove loss, as a consequence of anthropogenic degradation, with this increasing to 38% when combined with evidence of anthropogenic activity prior to 1996. The greatest proportion of loss was observed in Southeast Asia, whereby approximately 50% of the tiles in the region contained evidence of mangrove loss, corresponding to 18.4% of the global mangrove forest tiles. Southeast Asia contained the greatest proportion (33.8%) of global mangrove forest. The primary driver of anthropogenic mangrove loss was found to be the conversion of mangrove to aquaculture/agriculture, although substantial advance of mangroves was also evident in many regions.

Enhancing climate literacy through the use of an interdisciplinary global change framework and conceptual models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, J. R.; Zoehfeld, K.; Mitchell, K.; Levine, J.; White, L. D.

2016-12-01

Understanding climate change and how to mitigate the causes and consequences of anthropogenic activities are essential components of the Next Generations Science Standards. To comprehend climate change today and why current rates and magnitudes of change are of concern, students must understand the various factors that drive Earth system processes and also how they interrelate. The Understanding Global Change web resource in development from the UC Museum of Paleontology will provide science educators with a conceptual framework, graphical models, lessons, and assessment templates for teaching NGSS aligned, interdisciplinary, climate change curricula. To facilitate students learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system of ongoing processes, the Understanding Global Change site will provide explicit conceptual links for the causes of climate change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation), Earth system processes (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and the changes scientists measure in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation). The conceptual links among topics will be presented in a series of storyboards that visually represent relationships and feedbacks among components of the Earth system and will provide teachers with guides for implementing NGSS-aligned climate change instruction that addresses physical science, life sciences, Earth and space science, and engineering performance expectations. These visualization and instructional methods are used by teachers during professional development programs at UC Berkeley and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History and are being tested in San Francisco Bay Area classrooms.

Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinn, Ronald G.

2001-01-01

AGAGE comprises continuous high frequency in-situ gas chromatographic FID/ECD measurements of two biogenic/anthropogenic gases (CH4, N2O) and five anthropogenic gases (CFCl3, CF2Cl2, CH3CCl3, CF2ClCFCl2, CCl4) which are carried out at five globally distributed sites (Ireland, California, Barbados, Samoa, Tasmania). Also, high frequency in-situ gas-chromatographic mass spectrometric measurements of about 30 species including chlorofluorocarbon replacements and many natural halocarbons are made at two sites (Ireland, Tasmania), and will soon begin at the other three sites. Finally, high frequency in-situ gas chromatographic HgO-RD measurements of CO and H2 are performed at two sites (Ireland, Tasmania). The goal is quantitative determination of the sources, sinks, and circulation of these environmentally important gases.

The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2016-01-01

A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models, globally distributed data sets, and complex laboratory and data collection procedures. Here we examine efforts by the scientific community and educational researchers to design new curricula and technology that close this gap and impart robust AGCC and Earth Science understanding. We find technology-based teaching shows promise in promoting robust AGCC understandings if associated curricula address mitigating factors such as time constraints in incorporating technology and the need to support teachers implementing AGCC and Earth Science inquiry. We recommend the scientific community continue to collaborate with educational researchers to focus on developing those inquiry technologies and curricula that use realistic scientific processes from AGCC research and/or the methods for determining how human society should respond to global change.

Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming: A Failed Experiment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ribeiro, Carla

2014-01-01

Global warming is a current environmental issue that has been linked to an increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. To raise awareness of the problem, various simple experiments have been proposed to demonstrate the effect of carbon dioxide on the planet's temperature. This article describes a similar experiment, which…

Draft Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990-2030

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

View draft report and appendices providing historical and projected estimates of global non-CO2 GHG emissions for 1990 to 2030 from sources in the energy, industrial processes, waste, and agriculture sectors.

Aerosol Indirect Effects on Cirrus Clouds in Global Aerosol-Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Zhang, K.; Wang, Y.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Zhou, C.; Penner, J.; Barahona, D.; Shi, X.

2015-12-01

Cirrus clouds play an important role in regulating the Earth's radiative budget and water vapor distribution in the upper troposphere. Aerosols can act as solution droplets or ice nuclei that promote ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. Anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel and biomass burning activities have substantially perturbed and enhanced concentrations of aerosol particles in the atmosphere. Global aerosol-climate models (GCMs) have now been used to quantify the radiative forcing and effects of aerosols on cirrus clouds (IPCC AR5). However, the estimate uncertainty is very large due to the different representation of ice cloud formation and evolution processes in GCMs. In addition, large discrepancies have been found between model simulations in terms of the spatial distribution of ice-nucleating aerosols, relative humidity, and temperature fluctuations, which contribute to different estimates of the aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds. In this presentation, four GCMs with the start-of-the art representations of cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions are used to estimate the aerosol indirect effects on cirrus clouds and to identify the causes of the discrepancies. The estimated global and annual mean anthropogenic aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds ranges from 0.1 W m-2 to 0.3 W m-2 in terms of the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiation flux, and 0.5-0.6 W m-2 for the TOA longwave flux. Despite the good agreement on global mean, large discrepancies are found at the regional scale. The physics behind the aerosol indirect effect is dramatically different. Our analysis suggests that burden of ice-nucleating aerosols in the upper troposphere, ice nucleation frequency, and relative role of ice formation processes (i.e., homogeneous versus heterogeneous nucleation) play key roles in determining the characteristics of the simulated aerosol indirect effects. In addition to the indirect effect estimate, we also use field campaign

Transition metal-catalyzed oxidation of atmospheric sulfur: Global implications for the sulfur budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, Becky; Park, Rokjin J.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Gong, Sunling

2009-01-01

We use observations of the oxygen-17 excess (Δ17O) of sulfate in the Arctic to quantify the sulfate source from aqueous SO2 (S(IV)) oxidation by O2 catalyzed by transition metals. Due to the lack of photochemically produced OH and H2O2 in high latitudes during winter, combined with high anthropogenic SO2 emissions in the Northern Hemisphere, oxidation by O3 is predicted to dominate sulfate formation during winter in this region. However, Δ17O measurements of sulfate aerosol collected in Alert, Canada, are not consistent with O3 as the dominant oxidant and indicate that a S(IV) oxidant with near-zero Δ17O values (O2) is important during winter. We use a global chemical transport model to interpret quantitatively the Alert observations and assess the global importance of sulfate production by Fe(III)- and Mn(II)-catalyzed oxidation of S(IV) by O2. We scale anthropogenic and natural atmospheric metal concentrations to primary anthropogenic sulfate and dust concentrations, respectively. The solubility and oxidation state of these metals is determined by cloud liquid water content, source, and sunlight. By including metal-catalyzed S(IV) oxidation, the model is consistent with the Δ17O magnitudes in the Alert data during winter. Globally, we find that this mechanism contributes 9-17% to sulfate production. The inclusion of metal-catalyzed oxidation does not resolve model discrepancies with surface SO2 and sulfate observations in Europe. Oxygen isotope measurements of sulfate aerosols collected near anthropogenic and dust sources of metals would help to verify the importance of this sulfur oxidation pathway.

Geoheritage, Geodiversity and natural landscape enhanced and protected through anthropogenic activity: a case study using the Chaîne des Puys and Limagne Fault, Afar and Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin; Hagos, Miruts; Guilbaud, Marie-Noelle

2015-04-01

The UNESCO World Heritage (WH) committee called in 2014 for all thematic geological and volcanological studies to be revised in light of a widening gap between current dogma and the progressive geoheritage science views. We discuss question of natural sites and anthropogenic activity. The Chaîne des Puys and Limagne fault UNESCO WH project is the basis of this presentation, but we also the Afar Region of Ethiopia and UNAM campus, Mexico City. It is now difficult to find any totally 'natural' (devoid of human influence) landscape. This very definition of natural ignores that humankind is a geological force, and humans are part of the natural process. The UNESCO WH guidelines recognise this in paragraph 90: 'it is recognized that no area is totally pristine and that all natural areas are in a dynamic state, and to some extent involve contact with people'. A geological landscape, may be large enough to accommodate human occupation without significantly changing landforms: this is the case of the Chaîne des Puys and Limagne fault. Human activity works in some ways to protect geological landscape: regulating vegetation and erosion. The aesthetic nature of humans may work to enhance the landscape's visibility by organisation of land use, and ceremonial use based on the sense of place. Humans also exercise economic activity such as quarrying and mining, which if uncontrolled can seriously modify a landscape. However, isolated works may not have an impact, or may even enhance the value of the site by uncovering geological features that would not naturally be seen. In the Chaîne des Puys only 0,3% of the land surface has been worked by artisanal methods and certain sites, like the Lemptégy volcano have been extracted with the view of enhancing the landscape's scientific value without detracting from the aesthetic. The site preserves its natural, scientific and aesthetic qualities, because of the human presence. The local population have always been and continue to be

Presenting Global Warming and Evolution as Public Health Issues to Encourage Acceptance of Scientific Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stover, Shawn K.; McArthur, Laurence B.; Mabry, Michelle L.

2013-01-01

Although evidence supporting anthropogenic global warming and evolution by natural selection is considerable, the public does not embrace these concepts. The current study explores the hypothesis that individuals will become more receptive to scientific viewpoints if evidence for evolution and implications of global warming are presented as issues…

Anthropogenic features and hillslope processes interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarolli, Paolo; Sofia, Giulia

2016-04-01

Topography emerges as a result of natural driving forces, but some human activities (such as mining, agricultural practices and the construction of road networks) directly or indirectly move large quantities of soil, which leave clear topographic signatures embedded on the Earth's morphology. These signatures can cause drastic changes to the geomorphological organization of the landscape, with direct consequences on Earth surface processes (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). To this point, the present research investigates few case studies highlighting the influences of anthropogenic topographic signatures on hillslope processes, and it shows the effectiveness of High-Resolution Topography (HRT) derived from the recent remote sensing technologies (e.g. lidar, satellite, structure from motion photogrammetry), to better understand this interaction. The first example is related to agricultural terraces. In recent times, terraced areas acquired a new relevance to modern concerns about erosion and land instability, being the agricultural land mostly threatened by abandonment or intensification and specialization of agriculture, resulting in more landslide-prone bench terraces, or heavy land levelling with increased erosion. The second case study discusses about the role of agricultural and forest roads on surface erosion and landslides. The third case study investigates geomorphic processes in an open pit mine. In all case studies, HRT served as the basis for the development of new methodologies able to recognize and analyze changes on Earth surface processes along hillslopes. The results show how anthropogenic elements have crucial effects on sediment production and sediment delivery, also influencing the landscape connectivity. The availability of HRT can improve our ability to actually model anthropogenic morphologies, quantify them, and analyse the links between anthropogenic elements and geomorphic processes. The results presented here, and the creation and dissemination of

Activities That Reduce Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions Grant - Closed Announcement FY 2012

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Grant to fund eligible projects for activities that advance near-term, cost-effective methane abatement or recovery and use as a clean energy source, and support the goals of of theGlobal Methane Initiative.

Marine anthropogenic radiotracers in the Southern Hemisphere: New sampling and analytical strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, I.; Povinec, P. P.; Aoyama, M.; Hirose, K.; Sanchez-Cabeza, J. A.; Comanducci, J.-F.; Gastaud, J.; Eriksson, M.; Hamajima, Y.; Kim, C. S.; Komura, K.; Osvath, I.; Roos, P.; Yim, S. A.

2011-04-01

The Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology conducted in 2003-2004 the Blue Earth Global Expedition (BEAGLE2003) around the Southern Hemisphere Oceans, which was a rare opportunity to collect many seawater samples for anthropogenic radionuclide studies. We describe here sampling and analytical methodologies based on radiochemical separations of Cs and Pu from seawater, as well as radiometric and mass spectrometry measurements. Several laboratories took part in radionuclide analyses using different techniques. The intercomparison exercises and analyses of certified reference materials showed a reasonable agreement between the participating laboratories. The obtained data on the distribution of 137Cs and plutonium isotopes in seawater represent the most comprehensive results available for the Southern Hemisphere Oceans.

Calentamiento global : ¿Efecto invernadero o actividad solar?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauas, P. J. D.

Here we discuss some evidences suggesting that solar activity affects the terrestrial climate. We pay particular attention to claims, made by different authors, that global warming is due to an increase in solar activity and not to anthropogenic causes like, mainly, the greenhouse effect. We conclude that, although there are evidences suggesting that solar activity affects the climate at Earth, it seems doubtful that this is the main cause of global warming.

Anthropogenic versus natural control on trace element and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope stratigraphy in peat sediments of southeast Florida (USA), ˜1500 AD to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamenov, George D.; Brenner, Mark; Tucker, Jaimie L.

2009-06-01

Analysis of a well-dated peat core from Blue Cypress Marsh (BCM) provides a detailed record of natural and anthropogenic factors that controlled the geochemical cycles of a number of trace elements in Florida over the last five centuries. The trace elements were divided into "natural" and "anthropogenic" groups using concentration trends from the bottom to the top of the core. The "natural" group includes Li, Sc, Cr, Co, Ga, Ge, Zr, Nb, Cs, Ba, Hf, Y, Ta, Th, and REE (Rare Earth Elements). These elements show similar concentrations throughout the core, indicating that changes in human activities after European arrival in the "New World" did not affect their geochemical cycles. The "anthropogenic" group includes Pb, Cu, Zn, V, Sb, Sn, Bi, and Cd. Upcore enrichment of these elements indicates enhancement by anthropogenic activities. From the early 1500s to present, fluxes of the "anthropogenic" metals to the marsh increased significantly, with modern accumulation rates several-fold (e.g., V) to hundreds of times (e.g., Zn) greater than pre-colonial rates. The dominant input mechanism for trace elements from both groups to the marsh has been atmospheric deposition. Atmospheric input of a number of the elements, including the anthropogenic metals, was dominated by local sources during the last century. For several elements, long-distant transport may be important. For instance, REE and Nd isotopes provide evidence for long-range atmospheric transport dominated by Saharan dust. The greatest increase in flux of the "anthropogenic" metals occurred during the 20th century and was caused by changes in the chemical composition of atmospheric deposition entering the marsh. Increased atmospheric inputs were a consequence of several anthropogenic activities, including fossil fuel combustion (coal and oil), agricultural activities, and quarrying and mining operations. Pb and V exhibit similar trends, with peak accumulation rates in 1970. The principal anthropogenic source of V

Isolating the anthropogenic component of Arctic warming

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Hengartner, Nicholas; Lesins, Glen; ...

2014-05-28

Structural equation modeling is used in statistical applications as both confirmatory and exploratory modeling to test models and to suggest the most plausible explanation for a relationship between the independent and the dependent variables. Although structural analysis cannot prove causation, it can suggest the most plausible set of factors that influence the observed variable. Here, we apply structural model analysis to the annual mean Arctic surface air temperature from 1900 to 2012 to find the most effective set of predictors and to isolate the anthropogenic component of the recent Arctic warming by subtracting the effects of natural forcing and variabilitymore » from the observed temperature. We also find that anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols radiative forcing and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation internal mode dominate Arctic temperature variability. Finally, our structural model analysis of observational data suggests that about half of the recent Arctic warming of 0.64 K/decade may have anthropogenic causes.« less

The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis: Challenges and Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruddiman, William F.

2007-12-01

Ruddiman (2003) proposed that late Holocene anthropogenic intervention caused CH4 and CO2 increases that kept climate from cooling and that preindustrial pandemics caused CO2 decreases and a small cooling. Every aspect of this early anthropogenic hypothesis has been challenged: the timescale, the issue of stage 11 as a better analog, the ability of human activities to account for the gas anomalies, and the impact of the pandemics. This review finds that the late Holocene gas trends are anomalous in all ice timescales; greenhouse gases decreased during the closest stage 11 insolation analog; disproportionate biomass burning and rice irrigation can explain the methane anomaly; and pandemics explain half of the CO2 decrease since 1000 years ago. Only ˜25% of the CO2 anomaly can, however, be explained by carbon from early deforestation. The remainder must have come from climate system feedbacks, including a Holocene ocean that remained anomalously warm because of anthropogenic intervention.

GNAQPMS-Hg v1.0, a global nested atmospheric mercury transport model: model description, evaluation and application to trans-boundary transport of Chinese anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H. S.; Wang, Z. F.; Li, J.; Tang, X.; Ge, B. Z.; Wu, X. L.; Wild, O.; Carmichael, G. R.

2015-09-01

Atmospheric mercury (Hg) is a toxic pollutant and can be transported over the whole globe due to its long lifetime in the atmosphere. For the purpose of assessing Hg hemispheric transport and better characterizing regional Hg pollution, a global nested atmospheric Hg transport model (GNAQPMS-Hg - Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System for Hg) has been developed. In GNAQPMS-Hg, the gas- and aqueous-phase Hg chemistry representing the transformation among three forms of Hg: elemental mercury (Hg(0)), divalent mercury (Hg(II)), and primary particulate mercury (Hg(P)) are calculated. A detailed description of the model, including mercury emissions, gas- and aqueous-phase chemistry, and dry and wet deposition is given in this study. Worldwide observations including extensive data in China have been collected for model evaluation. Comparison results show that the model reasonably simulates the global mercury budget and the spatiotemporal variation of surface mercury concentrations and deposition. Overall, model predictions of annual total gaseous mercury (TGM) and wet deposition agree with observations within a factor of 2, and within a factor of 5 for oxidized mercury and dry deposition. The model performs significantly better in North America and Europe than in East Asia. This can probably be attributed to the large uncertainties in emission inventories, coarse model resolution and to the inconsistency between the simulation and observation periods in East Asia. Compared to the global simulation, the nested simulation shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial variability of surface Hg concentrations and deposition over East Asia. In particular, the root mean square error (RMSE) of simulated Hg wet deposition over East Asia is reduced by 24 % in the nested simulation. Model sensitivity studies indicate that Chinese primary anthropogenic emissions account for 30 and 62 % of surface mercury concentrations and deposition over China, respectively

Russian anthropogenic black carbon: Emission reconstruction and Arctic black carbon simulation

DOE PAGES

Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.; Prikhodko, Vitaly Y.; ...

2015-10-02

Development of reliable source emission inventories is needed to advance the understanding of the origin of Arctic haze using chemical transport modeling. This paper develops a regional anthropogenic black carbon (BC) emission inventory for the Russian Federation, the largest country by land area in the Arctic Council. Activity data from combination of local Russia information and international resources, emission factors based on either Russian documents or adjusted values for local conditions, and other emission source data are used to approximate the BC emissions. Emissions are gridded at a resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and developed into a monthly temporal profile.more » Total anthropogenic BC emission of Russia in 2010 is estimated to be around 224 Gg. Gas flaring, a commonly ignored black carbon source, contributes a significant fraction of 36.2% to Russia's total anthropogenic BC emissions. Other sectors, i.e., residential, transportation, industry, and power plants, contribute 25.0%, 20.3%, 13.1%, and 5.4%, respectively. Three major BC hot spot regions are identified: the European part of Russia, the southern central part of Russia where human population densities are relatively high, and the Urals Federal District where Russia's major oil and gas fields are located but with sparse human population. BC simulations are conducted using the hemispheric version of Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model with emission inputs from a global emission database EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research)-HTAPv2 (Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) and EDGAR-HTAPv2 with its Russian part replaced by the newly developed Russian BC emissions, respectively. The simulation using the new Russian BC emission inventory could improve 30–65% of absorption aerosol optical depth measured at the AERONET sites in Russia throughout the whole year as compared to that using the default HTAPv2 emissions. At the four ground monitoring sites (Zeppelin, Barrow, Alert

Russian anthropogenic black carbon: Emission reconstruction and Arctic black carbon simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.; Prikhodko, Vitaly Y.; Storey, John M.; Romanov, Alexander; Hodson, Elke L.; Cresko, Joe; Morozova, Irina; Ignatieva, Yulia; Cabaniss, John

2015-11-01

Development of reliable source emission inventories is particularly needed to advance the understanding of the origin of Arctic haze using chemical transport modeling. This study develops a regional anthropogenic black carbon (BC) emission inventory for the Russian Federation, the largest country by land area in the Arctic Council. Activity data from combination of local Russia information and international resources, emission factors based on either Russian documents or adjusted values for local conditions, and other emission source data are used to approximate the BC emissions. Emissions are gridded at a resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and developed into a monthly temporal profile. Total anthropogenic BC emission of Russia in 2010 is estimated to be around 224 Gg. Gas flaring, a commonly ignored black carbon source, contributes a significant fraction of 36.2% to Russia's total anthropogenic BC emissions. Other sectors, i.e., residential, transportation, industry, and power plants, contribute 25.0%, 20.3%, 13.1%, and 5.4%, respectively. Three major BC hot spot regions are identified: the European part of Russia, the southern central part of Russia where human population densities are relatively high, and the Urals Federal District where Russia's major oil and gas fields are located but with sparse human population. BC simulations are conducted using the hemispheric version of Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model with emission inputs from a global emission database EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research)-HTAPv2 (Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) and EDGAR-HTAPv2 with its Russian part replaced by the newly developed Russian BC emissions, respectively. The simulation using the new Russian BC emission inventory could improve 30-65% of absorption aerosol optical depth measured at the AERONET sites in Russia throughout the whole year as compared to that using the default HTAPv2 emissions. At the four ground monitoring sites (Zeppelin, Barrow

Russian anthropogenic black carbon: Emission reconstruction and Arctic black carbon simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.; Prikhodko, Vitaly Y.

Development of reliable source emission inventories is needed to advance the understanding of the origin of Arctic haze using chemical transport modeling. This paper develops a regional anthropogenic black carbon (BC) emission inventory for the Russian Federation, the largest country by land area in the Arctic Council. Activity data from combination of local Russia information and international resources, emission factors based on either Russian documents or adjusted values for local conditions, and other emission source data are used to approximate the BC emissions. Emissions are gridded at a resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and developed into a monthly temporal profile.more » Total anthropogenic BC emission of Russia in 2010 is estimated to be around 224 Gg. Gas flaring, a commonly ignored black carbon source, contributes a significant fraction of 36.2% to Russia's total anthropogenic BC emissions. Other sectors, i.e., residential, transportation, industry, and power plants, contribute 25.0%, 20.3%, 13.1%, and 5.4%, respectively. Three major BC hot spot regions are identified: the European part of Russia, the southern central part of Russia where human population densities are relatively high, and the Urals Federal District where Russia's major oil and gas fields are located but with sparse human population. BC simulations are conducted using the hemispheric version of Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model with emission inputs from a global emission database EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research)-HTAPv2 (Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) and EDGAR-HTAPv2 with its Russian part replaced by the newly developed Russian BC emissions, respectively. The simulation using the new Russian BC emission inventory could improve 30–65% of absorption aerosol optical depth measured at the AERONET sites in Russia throughout the whole year as compared to that using the default HTAPv2 emissions. At the four ground monitoring sites (Zeppelin, Barrow, Alert

High-resolution mapping of anthropogenic heat in China from 1992 to 2010.

PubMed

Yang, Wangming; Chen, Bing; Cui, Xuefeng

2014-04-14

Anthropogenic heat generated by human activity contributes to urban and regional climate warming. Due to the resolution and accuracy of existing anthropogenic heat data, it is difficult to analyze and simulate the corresponding effects. This study exploited a new method to estimate high spatial and temporal resolutions of anthropogenic heat based on long-term data of energy consumption and the US Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program-Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) data from 1992 to 2010 across China. Our results showed that, throughout the entire study period, there are apparent increasing trends in anthropogenic heat in three major metropoli, i.e., the Beijing-Tianjin region, the Yangzi River delta and the Pearl River delta. The annual mean anthropogenic heat fluxes for Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou in 2010 were 17 Wm⁻², 19 and 7.8 Wm⁻², respectively. Comparisons with previous studies indicate that DMSP-OLS data could provide a better spatial proxy for estimating anthropogenic heat than population density and our analysis shows better performance at large scales for estimation of anthropogenic heat.

What do correlations tell us about anthropogenic-biogenic interactions and SOA formation in the Sacramento Plume during CARES?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleinman, L.; Kuang, C.; Sedlacek, A.; Senum, G.; Springston, S.; Wang, J.; Zhang, Q.; Jayne, J.; Fast, J.; Hubbe, J.; Shilling, J.; Zaveri, R.

2015-09-01

During the Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) the DOE G-1 aircraft was used to sample aerosol and gas phase compounds in the Sacramento, CA plume and surrounding region. We present data from 66 plume transects obtained during 13 flights in which southwesterly winds transported the plume towards the foothills of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Plume transport occurred partly over land with high isoprene emission rates. Our objective is to empirically determine whether organic aerosol (OA) can be attributed to anthropogenic or biogenic sources, and to determine whether there is a synergistic effect whereby OA concentrations are enhanced by the simultaneous presence of high concentrations of CO and either isoprene, MVK+MACR (sum of methyl vinyl ketone and methacrolein) or methanol, which are taken as tracers of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, respectively. Linear and bilinear correlations between OA, CO, and each of three biogenic tracers, "Bio", for individual plume transects indicate that most of the variance in OA over short time and distance scales can be explained by CO. For each transect and species a plume perturbation, (i.e., ΔOA, defined as the difference between 90th and 10th percentiles) was defined and regressions done amongst Δ values in order to probe day to day and location dependent variability. Species that predicted the largest fraction of the variance in ΔOA were ΔO3 and ΔCO. Background OA was highly correlated with background methanol and poorly correlated with other tracers. Because background OA was ~ 60 % of peak OA in the urban plume, peak OA should be primarily biogenic and therefore non-fossil. Transects were split into subsets according to the percentile rankings of ΔCO and ΔBio, similar to an approach used by Setyan et al. (2012) and Shilling et al. (2013) to determine if anthropogenic-biogenic interactions enhance OA production. As found earlier, ΔOA in the data subset having high ΔCO and high ΔBio was

Is Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Causing Global Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glanz, Peter

2009-10-01

Every knowledgeable scientist will stipulate that global temperatures are rising (0.7^o the last century). There are those that see a universal scientific consensus that atmospheric CO2 is the culprit; they have put in place a cap-and-trade system to forcibly reduce anthropogenic CO2 in the USA. What is the scientific evidence behind this volatile issue?

A 3D parameterization of nutrients atmospheric deposition to the global ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myriokefalitakis, S.; Nenes, A.; Baker, A. R.; Mihalopoulos, N.; Kanakidou, M.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric deposition of trace constituents, both of natural and anthropogenic origin, can act as a nutrient source into the open ocean and affect marine ecosystem functioning and subsequently the exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and the global ocean. Dust is known as a major source of nutrients (such as iron and phosphorus) to the global ocean, but only a fraction of these nutrients is released in soluble form that can be assimilated by the ecosystems. The global atmospheric iron (Fe) and phosphorus (P) cycles are here parameterized in a global 3-D chemical transport model. Both primary emissions of total and soluble Fe and P associated with dust and combustion processes are taken into account. The impact of atmospheric acidity on nutrient solubility is parameterised based on experimental findings and model results are evaluated by comparison with available observations. The effect of air-quality changes on soluble nutrient deposition is studied by performing sensitivity simulations using preindustrial, present and future emission scenarios. The link between the soluble Fe and P atmospheric deposition and anthropogenic sources is also investigated. Overall, the response of the chemical composition of nutrient-containing aerosols to environmental changes is demonstrated and quantified.

Background Mole Fractions of Hydrocarbons in North America Determined from NOAA Global Reference Network Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielke-Maday, I.

2015-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Monitoring Division (GMD) maintains a global reference network for over 50 trace gas species and analyzes discrete air samples collected by this network throughout the world at the Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. In particular, flask samples are analyzed for a number of hydrocarbons with policy and health relevance such as ozone precursors, greenhouse gases, and hazardous air pollutants. Because this global network's sites are remote and therefore minimally influenced by local anthropogenic emissions, these data yield information about background ambient mole fractions and can provide a context for observations collected in intensive field campaigns, such as the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment (FRAPPE), the Southeast Nexus (SENEX) study, and the DISCOVER-AQ deployments. Information about background mole fractions during field campaigns is critical for calculating hydrocarbon enhancements in the region of study and for assessing the extent to which a particular region's local emissions sources contribute to these enhancements. Understanding the geographic variability of the background and its contribution to regional ambient mole fractions is also crucial for the development of realistic regulations. We present background hydrocarbon mole fractions and their ratios in North America using data from air samples collected in the planetary boundary layer at tall towers and aboard aircraft from 2008 to 2014. We discuss the spatial and seasonal variability in these data. We present trends over the time period of measurements and propose possible explanations for these trends.

Marine anthropogenic litter on British beaches: A 10-year nationwide assessment using citizen science data.

PubMed

Nelms, S E; Coombes, C; Foster, L C; Galloway, T S; Godley, B J; Lindeque, P K; Witt, M J

2017-02-01

Growing evidence suggests that anthropogenic litter, particularly plastic, represents a highly pervasive and persistent threat to global marine ecosystems. Multinational research is progressing to characterise its sources, distribution and abundance so that interventions aimed at reducing future inputs and clearing extant litter can be developed. Citizen science projects, whereby members of the public gather information, offer a low-cost method of collecting large volumes of data with considerable temporal and spatial coverage. Furthermore, such projects raise awareness of environmental issues and can lead to positive changes in behaviours and attitudes. We present data collected over a decade (2005-2014 inclusive) by Marine Conservation Society (MCS) volunteers during beach litter surveys carried along the British coastline, with the aim of increasing knowledge on the composition, spatial distribution and temporal trends of coastal debris. Unlike many citizen science projects, the MCS beach litter survey programme gathers information on the number of volunteers, duration of surveys and distances covered. This comprehensive information provides an opportunity to standardise data for variation in sampling effort among surveys, enhancing the value of outputs and robustness of findings. We found that plastic is the main constituent of anthropogenic litter on British beaches and the majority of traceable items originate from land-based sources, such as public littering. We identify the coast of the Western English Channel and Celtic Sea as experiencing the highest relative litter levels. Increasing trends over the 10-year time period were detected for a number of individual item categories, yet no statistically significant change in total (effort-corrected) litter was detected. We discuss the limitations of the dataset and make recommendations for future work. The study demonstrates the value of citizen science data in providing insights that would otherwise not be

Seagrass meadows in a globally changing environment.

PubMed

Unsworth, Richard K F; van Keulen, Mike; Coles, Rob G

2014-06-30

Seagrass meadows are valuable ecosystem service providers that are now being lost globally at an unprecedented rate, with water quality and other localised stressors putting their future viability in doubt. It is therefore critical that we learn more about the interactions between seagrass meadows and future environmental change in the anthropocene. This needs to be with particular reference to the consequences of poor water quality on ecosystem resilience and the effects of change on trophic interactions within the food web. Understanding and predicting the response of seagrass meadows to future environmental change requires an understanding of the natural long-term drivers of change and how these are currently influenced by anthropogenic stress. Conservation management of coastal and marine ecosystems now and in the future requires increased knowledge of how seagrass meadows respond to environmental change, and how they can be managed to be resilient to these changes. Finding solutions to such issues also requires recognising people as part of the social-ecological system. This special issue aims to further enhance this knowledge by bringing together global expertise across this field. The special issues considers issues such as ecosystem service delivery of seagrass meadows, the drivers of long-term seagrass change and the socio-economic consequences of environmental change to seagrass. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anthropogenic Debris Ingestion by Avifauna in Eastern Australia

PubMed Central

Schuyler, Qamar A.; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Townsend, Kathy A.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic debris in the world’s oceans and coastal environments is a pervasive global issue that has both direct and indirect impacts on avifauna. The number of bird species affected, the feeding ecologies associated with an increased risk of debris ingestion, and selectivity of ingested debris have yet to be investigated in most of Australia’s coastal and marine birds. With this study we aim to address the paucity of data regarding marine debris ingestion in Australian coastal and marine bird species. We investigated which Australian bird groups ingest marine debris, and whether debris-ingesting groups exhibit selectivity associated with their taxonomy, habitat or foraging methods. Here we present the largest multispecies study of anthropogenic debris ingestion in Australasian avifauna to date. We necropsied and investigated the gastrointestinal contents of 378 birds across 61 species, collected dead across eastern Australia. These species represented nine taxonomic orders, five habitat groups and six feeding strategies. Among investigated species, thirty percent had ingested debris, though ingestion did not occur uniformly within the orders of birds surveyed. Debris ingestion was found to occur in orders Procellariiformes, Suliformes, Charadriiformes and Pelecaniformes, across all surveyed habitats, and among birds that foraged by surface feeding, pursuit diving and search-by-sight. Procellariiformes, birds in pelagic habitats, and surface feeding marine birds ingested debris with the greatest frequency. Among birds which were found to ingest marine debris, we investigated debris selectivity and found that marine birds were selective with respect to both type and colour of debris. Selectivity for type and colour of debris significantly correlated with taxonomic order, habitat and foraging strategy. This study highlights the significant impact of feeding ecology on debris ingestion among Australia’s avifauna. PMID:27574986

Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 system in the oceans.

PubMed

Feely, Richard A; Sabine, Christopher L; Lee, Kitack; Berelson, Will; Kleypas, Joanie; Fabry, Victoria J; Millero, Frank J

2004-07-16

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations over the past two centuries have led to greater CO2 uptake by the oceans. This acidification process has changed the saturation state of the oceans with respect to calcium carbonate (CaCO3) particles. Here we estimate the in situ CaCO3 dissolution rates for the global oceans from total alkalinity and chlorofluorocarbon data, and we also discuss the future impacts of anthropogenic CO2 on CaCO3 shell-forming species. CaCO3 dissolution rates, ranging from 0.003 to 1.2 micromoles per kilogram per year, are observed beginning near the aragonite saturation horizon. The total water column CaCO3 dissolution rate for the global oceans is approximately 0.5 +/- 0.2 petagrams of CaCO3-C per year, which is approximately 45 to 65% of the export production of CaCO3.

Spatial distribution of temporal dynamics in anthropogenic fires in miombo savanna woodlands of Tanzania.

PubMed

Tarimo, Beatrice; Dick, Øystein B; Gobakken, Terje; Totland, Ørjan

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic uses of fire play a key role in regulating fire regimes in African savannas. These fires contribute the highest proportion of the globally burned area, substantial biomass burning emissions and threaten maintenance and enhancement of carbon stocks. An understanding of fire regimes at local scales is required for the estimation and prediction of the contribution of these fires to the global carbon cycle and for fire management. We assessed the spatio-temporal distribution of fires in miombo woodlands of Tanzania, utilizing the MODIS active fire product and Landsat satellite images for the past ~40 years. Our results show that up to 50.6% of the woodland area is affected by fire each year. An early and a late dry season peak in wetter and drier miombo, respectively, characterize the annual fire season. Wetter miombo areas have higher fire activity within a shorter annual fire season and have shorter return intervals. The fire regime is characterized by small-sized fires, with a higher ratio of small than large burned areas in the frequency-size distribution (β = 2.16 ± 0.04). Large-sized fires are rare, and occur more frequently in drier than in wetter miombo. Both fire prevalence and burned extents have decreased in the past decade. At a large scale, more than half of the woodland area has less than 2 years of fire return intervals, which prevent the occurrence of large intense fires. The sizes of fires, season of burning and spatial extent of occurrence are generally consistent across time, at the scale of the current analysis. Where traditional use of fire is restricted, a reassessment of fire management strategies may be required, if sustainability of tree cover is a priority. In such cases, there is a need to combine traditional and contemporary fire management practices.

On Effective Radiative Forcing of Partial Internally and Externally Mixed Aerosols and Their Effects on Global Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chen; Zhang, Hua; Zhao, Shuyun; Li, Jiangnan

2018-01-01

The total effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to partial internally mixed (PIM) and externally mixed (EM) anthropogenic aerosols, as well as their climatic effects since the year of 1850, was evaluated and compared using the aerosol-climate online coupled model of BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero. The influences of internal mixing (IM) on aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, optical properties, and concentration were considered. Generally, IM could markedly weaken the negative ERF and cooling effects of anthropogenic aerosols. The global annual mean ERF of EM anthropogenic aerosols from 1850 to 2010 was -1.87 W m-2, of which the aerosol-radiation interactive ERF (ERFari) and aerosol-cloud interactive ERF (ERFaci) were -0.49 and -1.38 W m-2, respectively. The global annual mean ERF due to PIM anthropogenic aerosols from 1850 to 2010 was -1.23 W m-2, with ERFari and ERFaci of -0.23 and -1.01 W m-2, respectively. The global annual mean surface temperature and water evaporation and precipitation were reduced by 1.74 K and 0.14 mm d-1 for EM scheme and 1.28 K and 0.11 mm d-1 for PIM scheme, respectively. However, the relative humidity near the surface was slightly increased for both mixing cases. The Intertropical Convergence Zone was southwardly shifted for both EM and PIM cases but was less southwardly shifted in PIM scheme due to the less reduction in atmospheric temperature in the midlatitude and low latitude of the Northern Hemisphere.

Attribution of irreversible loss to anthropogenic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, Christian; Bresch, David; Hansen, Gerrit; James, Rachel; Mechler, Reinhard; Stone, Dáithí; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo

2016-04-01

The Paris Agreement (2015) under the UNFCCC has anchored loss and damage in a separate article which specifies that understanding and support should be enhanced in areas addressing loss and damage such as early warning, preparedness, insurance and resilience. Irreversible loss is a special category under loss and damage but there is still missing clarity over what irreversible loss actually includes. Many negative impacts of climate change may be handled or mitigated by existing risk management, reduction and absorption approaches. Irreversible loss, however, is thought to be insufficiently addressed by risk management. Therefore, countries potentially or actually affected by irreversible loss are calling for other measures such as compensation, which however is highly contested in international climate policy. In Paris (2015) a decision was adopted that loss and damage as defined in the respective article of the agreement does not involve compensation and liability. Nevertheless, it is likely that some sort of mechanism will eventually need to come into play for irreversible loss due to anthropogenic climate change, which might involve compensation, other forms of non-monetary reparation, or transformation. Furthermore, climate litigation has increasingly been attempted to address negative effects of climate change. In this context, attribution is important to understand the drivers of change, what counts as irreversible loss due to climate change, and, possibly, who or what is responsible. Here we approach this issue by applying a detection and attribution perspective on irreversible loss. We first analyze detected climate change impacts as assessed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. We distinguish between irreversible loss in physical, biological and human systems, and accordingly identify the following candidates of irreversible loss in these systems: loss of glaciers and ice sheets, loss of subsurface ice (permafrost) and related loss of lake systems; loss

A COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING GLOBAL METHANE EMISSIONS FROM LANDFILLS

EPA Science Inventory

Landfills are a significant source of methane, ranking third in anthropogenic sources after rice paddies and ruminants. Estimating the contribution of landfills to global methane flux is hampered by a lack of accurate refuse and landfill data, and therefore depends heavily on the...

Contribution of anthropogenic phosphorus to agricultural soil fertility and food production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ringeval, B.; Nowak, B.; Nesme, T.; Delmas, M.; Pellerin, S.

2014-07-01

Agricultural intensification over the last few decades has been accompanied by the extensive use of anthropogenic phosphorus (P) derived from mined phosphate rock. Given the increasing scarcity of P resources, accurate estimates of the reliance of agriculture on anthropogenic P are required. Here we propose a modeling approach for assessing the contribution of anthropogenic P to agricultural soil fertility and food production. We performed computations at country level, and France was chosen as a typical western European country with intensive agriculture. Four soil P pools were identified based on their bioavailability (labile versus stable) and origin (anthropogenic versus natural). Pool evolution between 1948 and 2009 was estimated by combining international databases and a simple biogeochemical model. An optimization procedure demonstrated the necessity of representing a stable P pool capable of replenishing the labile pool within 14 to 33 years in order to match country-scale observations. Mean simulated P pool sizes for 2009 (0-35 cm soil horizon) were 146, 616, 31, and 156 kgP/ha for natural stable, anthropogenic stable, natural labile, and anthropogenic labile pools, respectively. We found that, on average, 82% (min-max: 68-91%) of soil P (sum of labile and above defined stable) in that year was anthropogenic. The temporal evolution of this contribution is directly related to the integral of chemical fertilizer use over time, starting from 1948. The contribution of anthropogenic P to food production was similar at 84% (min-max: 72-91%), which is greater than budget-based estimates ( 50-60%) commonly reported in the literature. By focusing on soil fertility and food production, this study provides a quantitative estimation of human perturbations of the P cycle in agroecosystems.

Distribution and drivers of global mangrove forest change, 1996–2010

PubMed Central

Thomas, Nathan; Lucas, Richard; Bunting, Peter; Hardy, Andrew; Rosenqvist, Ake; Simard, Marc

2017-01-01

For the period 1996-2010, we provide the first indication of the drivers behind mangrove land cover and land use change across the (pan-)tropics using time-series Japanese Earth Resources Satellite (JERS-1) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array-type L-band SAR (PALSAR) data. Multi-temporal radar mosaics were manually interpreted for evidence of loss and gain in forest extent and its associated driver. Mangrove loss as a consequence of human activities was observed across their entire range. Between 1996-2010 12% of the 1168 1°x1° radar mosaic tiles examined contained evidence of mangrove loss, as a consequence of anthropogenic degradation, with this increasing to 38% when combined with evidence of anthropogenic activity prior to 1996. The greatest proportion of loss was observed in Southeast Asia, whereby approximately 50% of the tiles in the region contained evidence of mangrove loss, corresponding to 18.4% of the global mangrove forest tiles. Southeast Asia contained the greatest proportion (33.8%) of global mangrove forest. The primary driver of anthropogenic mangrove loss was found to be the conversion of mangrove to aquaculture/agriculture, although substantial advance of mangroves was also evident in many regions. PMID:28594908

What do correlations tell us about anthropogenic-biogenic interactions and SOA formation in the Sacramento plume during CARES?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleinman, L.; Kuang, C.; Sedlacek, A.; Senum, G.; Springston, S.; Wang, J.; Zhang, Q.; Jayne, J.; Fast, J.; Hubbe, J.; Shilling, J.; Zaveri, R.

2016-02-01

During the Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) the US Department of Energy (DOE) G-1 aircraft was used to sample aerosol and gas phase compounds in the Sacramento, CA, plume and surrounding region. We present data from 66 plume transects obtained during 13 flights in which southwesterly winds transported the plume towards the foothills of the Sierra Nevada. Plume transport occurred partly over land with high isoprene emission rates. Our objective is to empirically determine whether organic aerosol (OA) can be attributed to anthropogenic or biogenic sources, and to determine whether there is a synergistic effect whereby OA concentrations are enhanced by the simultaneous presence of high concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO) and either isoprene, MVK + MACR (sum of methyl vinyl ketone and methacrolein), or methanol, which are taken as tracers of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, respectively. Linear and bilinear correlations between OA, CO, and each of three biogenic tracers, "Bio", for individual plume transects indicate that most of the variance in OA over short timescales and distance scales can be explained by CO. For each transect and species a plume perturbation, (i.e., ΔOA, defined as the difference between 90th and 10th percentiles) was defined and regressions done amongst Δ values in order to probe day-to-day and location-dependent variability. Species that predicted the largest fraction of the variance in ΔOA were ΔO3 and ΔCO. Background OA was highly correlated with background methanol and poorly correlated with other tracers. Because background OA was ˜ 60 % of peak OA in the urban plume, peak OA should be primarily biogenic and therefore non-fossil, even though the day-to-day and spatial variability of plume OA is best described by an anthropogenic tracer, CO. Transects were split into subsets according to the percentile rankings of ΔCO and ΔBio, similar to an approach used by Setyan et al. (2012) and Shilling et al

Validation of Global Climatologies of Trace Gases Using NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Courchaine, Brian; Venable, Jessica C.

1995-01-01

Methane is an important trace gas because it is a greenhouse gas that affects the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. It is produced from biological and anthropogenic sources, and is increasing globally at a rate of approximately 0.6% per year [Climate Change 1992, IPCC]. By using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (NOAA/CMDL) ground station data, a global climatology of methane values was produced. Unfortunately, because the NOAA/CMDL ground stations are so sparse, the global climatology is low resolution. In order to compensate for this low resolution data, it was compared to in-situ flight data obtained from the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE). The smoothed ground station data correlated well with the flight data. Thus, for the first time it is shown that the smoothing process used to make global contours of methane using the ground stations is a plausible way to approximate global atmospheric concentrations of the gas. These verified climatologies can be used for testing large-scale models of chemical production, destruction, and transport. This project develops the groundwork for further research in building global climatologies from sparse ground station data and studying the transport and distribution of trace gases.

GNAQPMS-Hg v1.0, a global nested atmospheric mercury transport model: model description, evaluation and application to trans-boundary transport of Chinese anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H. S.; Wang, Z. F.; Li, J.; Tang, X.; Ge, B. Z.; Wu, X. L.; Wild, O.; Carmichael, G. R.

2014-10-01

Atmospheric mercury (Hg) is a toxic pollutant and can be transported over the whole globe due to its long lifetime in the atmosphere. For the purpose of assessing Hg hemispheric transport and better characterizing regional Hg pollution, a global nested atmospheric Hg transport model (GNAQPMS-Hg) has been developed. In GNAQPMS-Hg, the gas and aqueous phase Hg chemistry representing the transformation among three forms of Hg: elemental mercury (Hg(0)), divalent mercury (Hg(II)), and primary particulate mercury (Hg(P)) are calculated. A detailed description of the model, including mercury emissions, gas and aqueous phase chemistry, and dry and wet deposition is given in this study. Worldwide observations including extensive data in China have been collected for model evaluation. Comparison results show that the model reasonably simulates the global mercury budget and the spatial-temporal variation of surface mercury concentrations and deposition. Overall, model predictions of annual total gaseous mercury (TGM) and wet deposition agree with observations within a factor of two, and within a factor of five for oxidized mercury and dry deposition. The model performs significantly better in North America and Europe than in East Asia. This can probably be attributed to the large uncertainties in emission inventories, coarse model resolution and to the inconsistency between the simulation and observation periods in East Asia. Compared to the global simulation, the nested simulation shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial variability of Hg concentrations and deposition over East Asia. In particular, the root mean square error (RMSE) of simulated Hg wet deposition over East Asia is reduced by 24% in the nested simulation. Model sensitivity studies indicate that Chinese primary anthropogenic emissions account for 30 and 62% of surface mercury concentrations and deposition over China, respectively. Along the rim of the western Pacific, the contributions from Chinese

Anthropogenic emissions of methane in the United States

PubMed Central

Miller, Scot M.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Michalak, Anna M.; Kort, Eric A.; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Biraud, Sebastien C.; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Fischer, Marc L.; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Miller, Ben R.; Miller, John B.; Montzka, Stephen A.; Nehrkorn, Thomas; Sweeney, Colm

2013-01-01

This study quantitatively estimates the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. Results show that current inventories from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research underestimate methane emissions nationally by a factor of ∼1.5 and ∼1.7, respectively. Our study indicates that emissions due to ruminants and manure are up to twice the magnitude of existing inventories. In addition, the discrepancy in methane source estimates is particularly pronounced in the south-central United States, where we find total emissions are ∼2.7 times greater than in most inventories and account for 24 ± 3% of national emissions. The spatial patterns of our emission fluxes and observed methane–propane correlations indicate that fossil fuel extraction and refining are major contributors (45 ± 13%) in the south-central United States. This result suggests that regional methane emissions due to fossil fuel extraction and processing could be 4.9 ± 2.6 times larger than in EDGAR, the most comprehensive global methane inventory. These results cast doubt on the US EPA’s recent decision to downscale its estimate of national natural gas emissions by 25–30%. Overall, we conclude that methane emissions associated with both the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have larger greenhouse gas impacts than indicated by existing inventories. PMID:24277804

Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Zhang, Lei

2018-01-01

The use of wind energy resource is an integral part of many nations' strategies towards realizing the carbon emissions reduction targets set forth in the Paris Agreement, and global installed wind power cumulative capacity has grown on average by 22% per year since 2006. However, assessments of wind energy resource are usually based on today's climate, rather than taking into account that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to modify the global atmospheric circulation. Here, we apply an industry wind turbine power curve to simulations of high and low future emissions scenarios in an ensemble of ten fully coupled global climate models to investigate large-scale changes in wind power across the globe. Our calculations reveal decreases in wind power across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and increases across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, with substantial regional variations. The changes across the northern mid-latitudes are robust responses over time in both emissions scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere changes appear critically sensitive to each individual emissions scenario. In addition, we find that established features of climate change can explain these patterns: polar amplification is implicated in the northern mid-latitude decrease in wind power, and enhanced land-sea thermal gradients account for the tropical and southern subtropical increases.

Influence of Anthropogenic Disturbances on Stand Structural Complexity in Andean Temperate Forests: Implications for Managing Key Habitat for Biodiversity.

PubMed

Caviedes, Julián; Ibarra, José Tomás

2017-01-01

Forest attributes and their abundances define the stand structural complexity available as habitat for faunal biodiversity; however, intensive anthropogenic disturbances have the potential to degrade and simplify forest stands. In this paper we develop an index of stand structural complexity and show how anthropogenic disturbances, namely fire, logging, livestock, and their combined presence, affect stand structural complexity in a southern Global Biodiversity Hotspot. From 2011 to 2013, we measured forest structural attributes as well as the presence of anthropogenic disturbances in 505 plots in the Andean zone of the La Araucanía Region, Chile. In each plot, understory density, coarse woody debris, number of snags, tree diameter at breast height, and litter depth were measured, along with signs of the presence of anthropogenic disturbances. Ninety-five percent of the plots showed signs of anthropogenic disturbance (N = 475), with the combined presence of fire, logging, and livestock being the most common disturbance (N = 222; 44% of plots). The lowest values for the index were measured in plots combining fire, logging, and livestock. Undisturbed plots and plots with the presence of relatively old fires (> 70 years) showed the highest values for the index of stand structural complexity. Our results suggest that secondary forests < 70-year post-fire event, with the presence of habitat legacies (e.g. snags and CWD), can reach a structural complexity as high as undisturbed plots. Temperate forests should be managed to retain structural attributes, including understory density (7.2 ± 2.5 # contacts), volume of CWD (22.4 ± 25.8 m3/ha), snag density (94.4 ± 71.0 stems/ha), stand basal area (61.2 ± 31.4 m2/ha), and litter depth (7.5 ± 2.7 cm). Achieving these values will increase forest structural complexity, likely benefiting a range of faunal species in South American temperate forests.

Influence of Anthropogenic Disturbances on Stand Structural Complexity in Andean Temperate Forests: Implications for Managing Key Habitat for Biodiversity

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Forest attributes and their abundances define the stand structural complexity available as habitat for faunal biodiversity; however, intensive anthropogenic disturbances have the potential to degrade and simplify forest stands. In this paper we develop an index of stand structural complexity and show how anthropogenic disturbances, namely fire, logging, livestock, and their combined presence, affect stand structural complexity in a southern Global Biodiversity Hotspot. From 2011 to 2013, we measured forest structural attributes as well as the presence of anthropogenic disturbances in 505 plots in the Andean zone of the La Araucanía Region, Chile. In each plot, understory density, coarse woody debris, number of snags, tree diameter at breast height, and litter depth were measured, along with signs of the presence of anthropogenic disturbances. Ninety-five percent of the plots showed signs of anthropogenic disturbance (N = 475), with the combined presence of fire, logging, and livestock being the most common disturbance (N = 222; 44% of plots). The lowest values for the index were measured in plots combining fire, logging, and livestock. Undisturbed plots and plots with the presence of relatively old fires (> 70 years) showed the highest values for the index of stand structural complexity. Our results suggest that secondary forests < 70-year post-fire event, with the presence of habitat legacies (e.g. snags and CWD), can reach a structural complexity as high as undisturbed plots. Temperate forests should be managed to retain structural attributes, including understory density (7.2 ± 2.5 # contacts), volume of CWD (22.4 ± 25.8 m3/ha), snag density (94.4 ± 71.0 stems/ha), stand basal area (61.2 ± 31.4 m2/ha), and litter depth (7.5 ± 2.7 cm). Achieving these values will increase forest structural complexity, likely benefiting a range of faunal species in South American temperate forests. PMID:28068349

First report on Cretaceous paleoweathering rates in western Panthalassa: Evidence of global enhancement of continental weathering during OAE 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohta, T.

2013-12-01

Mid-Cretaceous is characterized by intensified oceanic anoxia (Oceanic Anoxic Events: OAEs) that raised global deposition of organic black shales. Several models have been proposed to explain the cause of the OAEs in conjunction with Cretaceous global warmth, active volcanism, sea-level changes and others. For example, Weissert et al. (1998) proposed a mechanism called 'weathering hypothesis'. In this model, the cause of the OAEs is explained in a following chain reaction, (1) global warmth and increase in atmospheric CO2 enhanced weathering of continental crust, (2) enhanced land weathering led excessive influx of nutrients from continents to oceans, (3) eutrophication enhanced primary productivity, (4) the excessive primary producers consumed dissolved oceanic oxygen that finally led to the OAEs. Several studies, in fact, revealed a causal relation between enhanced weathering and OAEs in northern Tethys region. However, it is necessary to collect worldwide information to unravel the global response of weathering hypothesis as a cause of OAEs. For such reason, the present contribution conducted measurements of the degree of hinterland paleoweathering during OAEs in northern Japan, for the purpose to provide a first report on the relation between continental weathering and OAEs in open ocean, the western Panthalassa Ocean. Aptian to Campanian forearc basin mudstones (Yezo Group) were analyzed by XRF and the degree of hinterland weathering was evaluated by geochemical weathering index (W index; Ohta and Arai, 2007). The W values obtained for the Yezo Group are 30~50, which is equivalent to the W values of recent soils developed in temperate mid-latitude climate. The W values show a fluctuation pattern that is concordant with the Cretaceous paleotemperature changes. This match indicates that the change in paleotemperature governed the weathering rates of East Asian continental crust. In addition, hinterland weathering rates show instantaneous increase during the OAE

Rapid carbon mineralization for permanent disposal of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matter, Juerg M.; Stute, Martin; Snæbjörnsdottir, Sandra Ó.; Oelkers, Eric H.; Gislason, Sigurdur R.; Aradottir, Edda S.; Sigfusson, Bergur; Gunnarsson, Ingvi; Sigurdardottir, Holmfridur; Gunnlaugsson, Einar; Axelsson, Gudni; Alfredsson, Helgi A.; Wolff-Boenisch, Domenik; Mesfin, Kiflom; Taya, Diana Fernandez de la Reguera; Hall, Jennifer; Dideriksen, Knud; Broecker, Wallace S.

2016-06-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) provides a solution toward decarbonization of the global economy. The success of this solution depends on the ability to safely and permanently store CO2. This study demonstrates for the first time the permanent disposal of CO2 as environmentally benign carbonate minerals in basaltic rocks. We find that over 95% of the CO2 injected into the CarbFix site in Iceland was mineralized to carbonate minerals in less than 2 years. This result contrasts with the common view that the immobilization of CO2 as carbonate minerals within geologic reservoirs takes several hundreds to thousands of years. Our results, therefore, demonstrate that the safe long-term storage of anthropogenic CO2 emissions through mineralization can be far faster than previously postulated.

Hidden Markov models for estimating animal mortality from anthropogenic hazards

EPA Science Inventory

Carcasses searches are a common method for studying the risk of anthropogenic hazards to wildlife, including non-target poisoning and collisions with anthropogenic structures. Typically, numbers of carcasses found must be corrected for scavenging rates and imperfect detection. ...

Anthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior

PubMed Central

O'Beirne, M. D.; Werne, J. P.; Hecky, R. E.; Johnson, T. C.; Katsev, S.; Reavie, E. D.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter many facets of Earth's freshwater resources, especially lacustrine ecosystems. The effects of anthropogenic changes in Lake Superior, which is Earth's largest freshwater lake by area, are not well documented (spatially or temporally) and predicted future states in response to climate change vary. Here we show that Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in production throughout the Holocene using (paleo)productivity proxies in lacustrine sediments to reconstruct past changes in primary production. Furthermore, data from the last century indicate a rapid increase in primary production, which we attribute to increasing surface water temperatures and longer seasonal stratification related to longer ice-free periods in Lake Superior due to anthropogenic climate warming. These observations demonstrate that anthropogenic effects have become a prominent influence on one of Earth's largest, most pristine lacustrine ecosystems. PMID:28598413

Anthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior.

PubMed

O'Beirne, M D; Werne, J P; Hecky, R E; Johnson, T C; Katsev, S; Reavie, E D

2017-06-09

Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter many facets of Earth's freshwater resources, especially lacustrine ecosystems. The effects of anthropogenic changes in Lake Superior, which is Earth's largest freshwater lake by area, are not well documented (spatially or temporally) and predicted future states in response to climate change vary. Here we show that Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in production throughout the Holocene using (paleo)productivity proxies in lacustrine sediments to reconstruct past changes in primary production. Furthermore, data from the last century indicate a rapid increase in primary production, which we attribute to increasing surface water temperatures and longer seasonal stratification related to longer ice-free periods in Lake Superior due to anthropogenic climate warming. These observations demonstrate that anthropogenic effects have become a prominent influence on one of Earth's largest, most pristine lacustrine ecosystems.

The formation of the ocean’s anthropogenic carbon reservoir

PubMed Central

Iudicone, Daniele; Rodgers, Keith B.; Plancherel, Yves; Aumont, Olivier; Ito, Takamitsu; Key, Robert M.; Madec, Gurvan; Ishii, Masao

2016-01-01

The shallow overturning circulation of the oceans transports heat from the tropics to the mid-latitudes. This overturning also influences the uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon (Cant). We demonstrate this by quantifying the relative importance of ocean thermodynamics, circulation and biogeochemistry in a global biochemistry and circulation model. Almost 2/3 of the Cant ocean uptake enters via gas exchange in waters that are lighter than the base of the ventilated thermocline. However, almost 2/3 of the excess Cant is stored below the thermocline. Our analysis shows that subtropical waters are a dominant component in the formation of subpolar waters and that these water masses essentially form a common Cant reservoir. This new method developed and presented here is intrinsically Lagrangian, as it by construction only considers the velocity or transport of waters across isopycnals. More generally, our approach provides an integral framework for linking ocean thermodynamics with biogeochemistry. PMID:27808101

The comparative evidence for urban species sorting by anthropogenic noise

PubMed Central

Hu, Yang

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic noise is more intense at lower sound frequencies, which could decrease urban tolerance of animals with low-frequency vocalizations. Four large comparative studies tested whether anthropogenic noise filters bird species according to the sound frequencies they use and produced discrepant results. We reanalysed data from these studies to explain their different results. Urban tolerance of bird species (defined here as often occurring and breeding in cities) is very weakly related to urban preference or relative abundance (defined based on changes in population density from urban to nearby rural environments). Data on urban preference/abundance are potentially accurate for individual cities but differ among cities for the same species, whereas existing data on urban tolerance are coarser but provide a more global synthesis. Cross-species comparisons find a positive association between the sound frequency of song and urban tolerance, but not urban preference/abundance. We found that showing an association between song frequency and urban tolerance requires controlling for additional species traits that influence urban living. On the contrary, controlling for other species traits is not required to show a positive association between song frequency and use of noisy relative to quiet areas within the same type of environment. Together, comparative evidence indicates that masking by urban noise is part of a larger set of factors influencing urban living: all else being equal, species with high-frequency sounds are more likely to tolerate cities than species with low-frequency sounds, but they are not more likely to prefer, or to be more abundant in, urban than non-urban habitats. PMID:29515901

The comparative evidence for urban species sorting by anthropogenic noise.

PubMed

Cardoso, Gonçalo C; Hu, Yang; Francis, Clinton D

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic noise is more intense at lower sound frequencies, which could decrease urban tolerance of animals with low-frequency vocalizations. Four large comparative studies tested whether anthropogenic noise filters bird species according to the sound frequencies they use and produced discrepant results. We reanalysed data from these studies to explain their different results. Urban tolerance of bird species (defined here as often occurring and breeding in cities) is very weakly related to urban preference or relative abundance (defined based on changes in population density from urban to nearby rural environments). Data on urban preference/abundance are potentially accurate for individual cities but differ among cities for the same species, whereas existing data on urban tolerance are coarser but provide a more global synthesis. Cross-species comparisons find a positive association between the sound frequency of song and urban tolerance, but not urban preference/abundance. We found that showing an association between song frequency and urban tolerance requires controlling for additional species traits that influence urban living. On the contrary, controlling for other species traits is not required to show a positive association between song frequency and use of noisy relative to quiet areas within the same type of environment. Together, comparative evidence indicates that masking by urban noise is part of a larger set of factors influencing urban living: all else being equal, species with high-frequency sounds are more likely to tolerate cities than species with low-frequency sounds, but they are not more likely to prefer, or to be more abundant in, urban than non-urban habitats.

Photosynthesis, growth and maize yields in the context of global change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Maize is the third most important grain crop behind wheat and rice. Global mean temperatures are rising primarily due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions into the earth’s atmosphere. Warmer temperatures over major landmasses are predicted to alter precipitation patterns and to increase the f...

Multidecadal accumulation of anthropogenic and remineralized dissolved inorganic carbon along the Extended Ellett Line in the northeast Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humphreys, Matthew P.; Griffiths, Alex M.; Achterberg, Eric P.; Holliday, N. Penny; Rérolle, Victoire M. C.; Menzel Barraqueta, Jan-Lukas; Couldrey, Matthew P.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Hartman, Susan E.; Esposito, Mario; Boyce, Adrian J.

2016-02-01

Marine carbonate chemistry measurements have been carried out annually since 2009 during UK research cruises along the Extended Ellett Line (EEL), a hydrographic transect in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The EEL intersects several water masses that are key to the global thermohaline circulation, and therefore the cruises sample a region in which it is critical to monitor secular physical and biogeochemical changes. We have combined results from these EEL cruises with existing quality-controlled observational data syntheses to produce a hydrographic time series for the EEL from 1981 to 2013. This reveals multidecadal increases in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) throughout the water column, with a near-surface maximum rate of 1.80 ± 0.45 µmol kg-1 yr-1. Anthropogenic CO2 accumulation was assessed, using simultaneous changes in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and total alkalinity (TA) as proxies for the biogeochemical processes that influence DIC. The stable carbon isotope composition of DIC (δ13CDIC) was also determined and used as an independent test of our method. We calculated a volume-integrated anthropogenic CO2 accumulation rate of 2.8 ± 0.4 mg C m-3 yr-1 along the EEL, which is about double the global mean. The anthropogenic CO2 component accounts for only 31 ± 6% of the total DIC increase. The remainder is derived from increased organic matter remineralization, which we attribute to the lateral redistribution of water masses that accompanies subpolar gyre contraction. Output from a general circulation ecosystem model demonstrates that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the observations has not significantly biased our multidecadal rate of change calculations and indicates that the EEL observations have been tracking distal changes in the surrounding North Atlantic and Nordic Seas.

The deforestation story: testing for anthropogenic origins of Africa's flammable grassy biomes.

PubMed

Bond, William; Zaloumis, Nicholas P

2016-06-05

Africa has the most extensive C4 grassy biomes of any continent. They are highly flammable accounting for greater than 70% of the world's burnt area. Much of Africa's savannas and grasslands occur in climates warm enough and wet enough to support closed forests. The combination of open grassy systems and the frequent fires they support have long been interpreted as anthropogenic artefacts caused by humans igniting frequent fires. True grasslands, it was believed, would be restricted to climates too dry or too cold to support closed woody vegetation. The idea that higher-rainfall savannas are anthropogenic and that fires are of human origin has led to initiatives to 'reforest' Africa's open grassy systems paid for by carbon credits under the assumption that the net effect of converting these system to forests would sequester carbon, reduce greenhouse gases and mitigate global warming. This paper reviews evidence for the antiquity of African grassy ecosystems and for the fires that they sustain. Africa's grassy biomes and the fires that maintain them are ancient and there is no support for the idea that humans caused large-scale deforestation. Indicators of old-growth grasslands are described. These can help distinguish secondary grasslands suitable for reforestation from ancient grasslands that should not be afforested.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

The deforestation story: testing for anthropogenic origins of Africa's flammable grassy biomes