Hardwood lumber and stumpage prices in two eastern hardwood markets: The real story

Treesearch

Neal P. Kingsley; Paul S. DeBald; Paul S. DeBald

1987-01-01

Current and real prices of hardwood lumber and stumpage prices are discussed. Results show that inflation wiped out most of the apparent price increases in two major hardwood lumber markets. Stumpage prices also failed to increase in real terms for most species in Ohio. Current and real prices trends for eight major eastern species are shown for the period 1964 through...

Effect of tree-ring detrending method on apparent growth trends of black and white spruce in interior Alaska

Treesearch

Patrick F Sullivan; Robert R Pattison; Annalis H Brownlee; Sean M P Cahoon; Teresa N Hollingsworth

2016-01-01

Boreal forests are critical sinks in the global carbon cycle. However, recent studies have revealed increasing frequency and extent of wildfires, decreasing landscape greenness, increasing tree mortality and declining growth of black and white spruce in boreal North America. We measured ring widths from a large set of increment cores collected across a vast area of...

Assessing browse trend at the landscape level Part 1: Preliminary steps and field survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keigley, R.B.; Frisina, M.R.; Fager, C.W.

2002-01-01

Woody plants are an important component of rangeland habitat, providing food and shelter for animals that range in size from moose to warblers to insects. Because of this importance, land managers are paying increased attention to browse trends. In this two-part article, we describe how browse trend is assessed at the Mt. Haggin Wildlife Management Area in southwestern Montana. Willows are currently heavily browsed, but there is evidence that browsing pressure was lower in the past. Heavily-browsed 14-inch-tall plants grow in close proximity to 16-foot-tall plants, the tallest stems of which are unbrowsed. The 16-foot-tall stems are older than the 14-inch-tall stems, and apparently grew through the browse zone when browsing pressure was lower than its current level. An increase in browsing pressure would be consistent with the increase in the moose population that occurred over the past 3 decades.

Considering Child Labour: Changing Terms, Issues and Actors at the International Level.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Myers, William E.

1999-01-01

Draws on increased international debate and concern about child labor to provide an overview of important apparent trends. Issues addressed include diversity of thinking, variety of work situations, effects on children involved, and traditional modes of action against child labor. Notes that traditional actions are ineffective and that ending the…

Spatial patterns of increases and decreases in the length of the sea ice season in the north polar region, 1979-1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1992-01-01

Recently it was reported that sea ice extents in the Northern Hemisphere showed a very slight but statistically significant decrease over the 8.8-year period of the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) data set. In this paper the same SMMR data are used to reveal spatial patterns in increasing and decreasing sea ice coverage. Specifically, the length of the ice season is mapped for each full year of the SMMR data set (1979-1986), and the trends over the 8 years in these ice season lengths are also mapped. These trends show considerable spatial coherence, with a shortening in the sea ice season apparent in much of the eastern hemisphere of the north polar ice cover, particularly in the Sea of Okhotsk, the Barents Sea, and the Kara Sea, and a lengthening of the sea ice season apparent in much of the western hemisphere of the north polar ice cover, particularly in Davis Strait, the Labrador Sea, and the Beaufort Sea.

Effects of enzyme supplementation on the nutrient, amino acid, and energy utilization efficiency of citrus pulp and hawthorn pulp in Linwu ducks.

PubMed

Zhang, Xu; Li, Haobang; Jiang, Guitao; Wang, Xiangrong; Huang, Xuan; Li, Chuang; Wu, Duanqin; Dai, Qiuzhong

2018-04-11

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of enzyme supplementation on the nutrient, amino acid, and energy utilization efficiency of citrus pulp and hawthorn pulp as unusual feedstuffs in Linwu ducks. Forty ducks were assigned to each treatment group and fed diets with or without complex enzyme supplementation. All birds received the same quantity of raw material (60 g) via the force-feeding procedure. With the exception of leucine and phenylalanine, amino acid concentrations in hawthorn pulp were twice those in citrus pulp. Enzyme supplementation significantly increased apparent dry matter digestibility (ADM) of citrus pulp (P < 0.05), but had no significant effects (P > 0.05) on the apparent and true utilization rates of other nutrients, apparent metabolizable energy (AME), or true metabolizable energy (TME), from citrus pulp and hawthorn pulp by Linwu ducks. However, enzyme supplementation significantly increased (P < 0.05) apparent gross energy, true gross energy, AME, and TME of hawthorn pulp for Linwu ducks. There were no differences in the apparent and true utilization rates of amino acids from citrus pulp (P > 0.56) between the groups, with the exception of arginine (P < 0.05). There was an increasing trend in the apparent and true utilization rates of alanine (P = 0.06) and tyrosine (P = 0.074) from citrus pulp with enzyme supplementation. The apparent and true utilization rates of threonine in hawthorn pulp were increased significantly (P < 0.05) following enzyme supplementation. The addition of exogenous enzymes improved the forage quality of citrus pulp and hawthorn pulp, which represent potential feed resources for husbandry production.

Influence of dietary chromium yeast supplementation on apparent trace elements metabolism in growing camel (Camelus dromedarius) reared under hot summer conditions.

PubMed

Alhidary, Ibrahim A; Alsofi, M A; Abdoun, K A; Samara, E M; Okab, A B; Al-Haidary, A A

2018-03-01

This study aimed to evaluate the effect of dietary chromium (Cr) supplementation on the apparent metabolism of some trace elements in camel calves reared under hot summer conditions. The study was conducted on a total of 15 male camel calves (5-6 months old) reared under hot summer conditions for 12 weeks. The animals were housed individually under shelter and divided into three dietary treatment groups (diets supplemented with 0.0, 0.5, or 1.0 mg Cr/kg DM), five animals each. At the end of the study, a metabolic trial was conducted on all camels for the evaluation of trace elements metabolism. Cr excretion, absorption, and retention showed an increasing trend with the increasing level of dietary Cr supplementation. Dietary Cr supplementation at 0.5 mg Cr/kg DM to camel calves resulted in a significant (P < 0.05) increase in Cu and an increasing trend in Zn and Mn excretion via urine and feces. However, Fe retention increased significantly (P < 0.05) in camel calves fed on diet supplemented with Cr. Dietary Cr supplementation to camel calves resulted in an increasing trend of plasma Cr concentration, while plasma concentration of Cu and Zn tended to decrease and without any effect on plasma Fe concentration. The results of the present study suggests that care should be taken for the negative interaction of Cr with the utilization of other trace elements, in cases where Cr is supplemented to the diet as a feed additive to promote growth and immunity under hot climatic conditions.

Teaching of biochemistry in medical school: A well-trodden pathway?

PubMed

Mathews, Michael B; Stagnaro-Green, Alex

2008-11-01

Biochemistry and molecular biology occupy a unique place in the medical school curriculum. They are frequently studied prior to medical school and are fundamental to the teaching of biomedical sciences in undergraduate medical education. These two circumstances, and the trend toward increased integration among the disciplines, have led to reconsideration of biochemistry instruction in many medical schools. We conducted a survey to explore the evolving trends in biochemistry education. A broad diversity was evident in parameters including course content, faculty, governance, prerequisites, and teaching methods. Notably, sharp differences were apparent between freestanding biochemistry courses and those in which biochemistry is integrated with other subjects. Furthermore, the data imply a likely trend toward increased integration of biochemistry with other disciplines in the medical school curriculum. Copyright © 2008 International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Reduced risk of colorectal cancer among recent generations in New Zealand.

PubMed Central

Cox, B.; Little, J.

1992-01-01

Male and female age standardised mortality and incidence rates of colorectal cancer have increased over the most recent 30 years in New Zealand. Among men and women aged 40 to 74, age standardised mortality and incidence rates increased 18 to 105%. However, age standardised mortality and incidence rates among younger men and women have declined from 14 to 69%. Analysis of trends in age specific mortality and incidence rates indicates that the occurrence of colorectal cancer has been declining equally for men and women in successive cohorts born about 1943 to 1953 in New Zealand. This decline in the frequency of colorectal cancer among recent generations was apparent for both the right and left sides of the colon and the rectum. Age-specific trends in coronary heart disease and breast cancer differed from those apparent for colorectal cancer, suggesting that the factors producing the reduction in colorectal cancer risk may affect these diseases among different age groups or may not be of major aetiological importance in these diseases. These trends provide empirical evidence that the occurrence of colorectal cancer can be reduced by at least 50% with a substantial component of the risk being determined before the age of 30. Further study is needed to establish whether changes in risk factors at older ages contribute to the prevention of the disease. PMID:1503913

Sustaining flows of critical resources: One example (Abstract)

Treesearch

Jim Renthal

2000-01-01

Growth of communities throughout the west accelerates into the 21st century, resources that were once unseen and unused, except, perhaps, by ranchers, are in increasing demand. This trend is particularly apparent on the Public Land. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is responsible for sustaining the availability, the flow, of many natural resources from substantive...

College/University Counseling Centers Supporting Study Away: Challenges and Opportunities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morse, Charles C.; Spoltore, Janet Dee; Galvinhill, Paul

2017-01-01

Research points to significant numbers of students on college campuses experiencing mental health distress and an ever increasing number of college students who are choosing to make an off-campus educational experience a part of their college careers. When we consider both of these trends together, it is quite apparent that a significant number of…

Infestation Trends of Balsam Woolly Aphid in an Abies Alba Plantation in North Carolina

Treesearch

Gene D. Amman; Gerhard F. Fedde

1971-01-01

Infestations of the balsam woolly aphid, Adelges piceae (Ratz.), on European silver fir trees in a plantation were observed over a 7-year period. Infestations were usually light, but occasionally increased to heavy. Heavy infestations declined within 1 or 2 years without killing the trees or causing them apparent damage.

Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille

2012-01-01

Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:22615406

Temperature Trends in Montane Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melack, J. M.; Sadro, S.; Jellison, R.

2014-12-01

Long-term temperature trends in lakes integrate hydrological and meteorological factors. We examine temperature trends in a small montane lake with prolonged ice-cover and large seasonal snowfall and in a large saline lake. Emerald Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada (California), is representative of high-elevation lakes throughout the region. No significant trend in outflow temperature was apparent from 1991to 2012. Snowfall in the watershed accounted for 93% of the variability in average summer lake temperatures. Mono Lake (California) lies in a closed, montane basin and is hypersaline and monomictic or meromictic. Temperature profiles have been collected from 1982 to 2010. In the upper water column, the July-August-September water temperatures increased 0.8-1.0°C over the 29 years. This rate of warming is less than published estimates based on satellite-derived skin temperatures and will discussed in the context of general limnological interpretation of temperature trends.

Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blakesley, J.A.; Seamans, M.E.; Conner, M.M.; Franklin, A.B.; White, Gary C.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Munton, T.E.; Shaw, D.W.H.; Keane, J.J.; Steger, G.N.; McDonald, T.L.

2010-01-01

The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data from 1,865 observations of reproductive outcomes for female spotted owls. The proportion of subadult females among all territorial females of known age ranged from 0.00 to 0.25 among study areas and years. The proportion of subadults among female spotted owls was negatively related to reproductive output (no. of young fledged/territorial F owl) for ELD and SIE. Eldorado study area and LAS showed an alternate-year trend in reproductive output, with higher output in even-numbered years. Mean annual reproductive output was 0.988 ?? 0.154 for ELD, 0.624 ?? 0.140 for LAS, 0.478 ?? 0.106 for SIE, and 0.555 ?? 0.110 for SKC. Eldorado Study Area exhibited a declining trend and the greatest variation in reproductive output over time, whereas SIE and SKC, which had the lowest reproductive output, had the lowest temporal variation. Meta-analysis confirmed that reproductive output varied among study areas. Reproductive output was highest for adults, followed by second-year subadults, and then by first-year subadults. We used 842 marked subadult and adult owls to estimate population rate of change. Modeling indicated that ??t (??t is the finite rate of population change estimated using the reparameterized JollySeber estimator Pradel 1996) was either stationary (LAS and SIE) or increasing after an initial decrease (ELD and SKC). Mean estimated ??t for the 4 study areas was 1.007 (95 CI 0.9521.066) for ELD; 0.973 (95 CI 0.9461.001) for LAS; 0.992 (95 CI 0.9661.018) for SIE; and 1.006 (95 CI 0.9471.068) for SKC. The best meta-analysis model of population trend indicated that ?? varied across time but was similar in trend among the study areas. Our estimates of realized population change (??t; Franklin et al. 2004), which we estimated as the product 1 ?? ??3 ?? ??4 ?? .?? ??k -1, were based on estimates of ??t from individual study areas and did not require estimating annual population size for each study area. Trends represented the proportion of the population size in the first ye

Screening for increased cardiometabolic risk in primary care: a systematic review

PubMed Central

den Engelsen, Corine; Koekkoek, Paula S; Godefrooij, Merijn B; Spigt, Mark G; Rutten, Guy E

2014-01-01

Background Many programmes to detect and prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been performed, but the optimal strategy is not yet clear. Aim To present a systematic review of cardiometabolic screening programmes performed among apparently healthy people (not yet known to have CVD, diabetes, or cardiometabolic risk factors) and mixed populations (apparently healthy people and people diagnosed with risk factor or disease) to define the optimal screening strategy. Design and setting Systematic review of studies performed in primary care in Western countries. Method MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases were searched for studies screening for increased cardiometabolic risk. Exclusion criteria were studies designed to assess prevalence of risk factors without follow-up or treatment; without involving a GP; when fewer than two risk factors were considered as the primary outcome; and studies constrained to ethnic minorities. Results The search strategy yielded 11 445 hits; 26 met the inclusion criteria. Five studies (1995–2012) were conducted in apparently healthy populations: three used a stepwise method. Response rates varied from 24% to 79%. Twenty-one studies (1967–2012) were performed in mixed populations; one used a stepwise method. Response rates varied from 50% to 75%. Prevalence rates could not be compared because of heterogeneity of used thresholds and eligible populations. Observed time trends were a shift from mixed to apparently healthy populations, increasing use of risk scores, and increasing use of stepwise screening methods. Conclusion The optimal screening strategy in primary care is likely stepwise, in apparently healthy people, with the use of risk scores. Increasing public awareness and actively involving GPs might facilitate screening efficiency and uptake. PMID:25267047

Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States

PubMed Central

Mazdiyasni, Omid; AghaKouchak, Amir

2015-01-01

A combination of climate events (e.g., low precipitation and high temperatures) may cause a significant impact on the ecosystem and society, although individual events involved may not be severe extremes themselves. Analyzing historical changes in concurrent climate extremes is critical to preparing for and mitigating the negative effects of climatic change and variability. This study focuses on the changes in concurrences of heatwaves and meteorological droughts from 1960 to 2010. Despite an apparent hiatus in rising temperature and no significant trend in droughts, we show a substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves across most parts of the United States, and a statistically significant shift in the distribution of concurrent extremes. Although commonly used trend analysis methods do not show any trend in concurrent droughts and heatwaves, a unique statistical approach discussed in this study exhibits a statistically significant change in the distribution of the data. PMID:26324927

Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States.

PubMed

Mazdiyasni, Omid; AghaKouchak, Amir

2015-09-15

A combination of climate events (e.g., low precipitation and high temperatures) may cause a significant impact on the ecosystem and society, although individual events involved may not be severe extremes themselves. Analyzing historical changes in concurrent climate extremes is critical to preparing for and mitigating the negative effects of climatic change and variability. This study focuses on the changes in concurrences of heatwaves and meteorological droughts from 1960 to 2010. Despite an apparent hiatus in rising temperature and no significant trend in droughts, we show a substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves across most parts of the United States, and a statistically significant shift in the distribution of concurrent extremes. Although commonly used trend analysis methods do not show any trend in concurrent droughts and heatwaves, a unique statistical approach discussed in this study exhibits a statistically significant change in the distribution of the data.

Trends in local public child welfare agencies 1999–2009

PubMed Central

Wells, Rebecca; Jolles, Mónica Pérez; Chuang, Emmeline; McBeath, Bowen; Collins-Camargo, Crystal

2017-01-01

US public child welfare agencies have faced increasing pressure in the first decade of this century to demonstrate efficiency and accountability, even as the Great Recession increased pressures on millions of families and undermined human service funding. This paper reports on analyses of the two cohorts of local public child welfare agencies from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being to identify changes in their structure and practice. Local agency adaptations have included some structural integration and apparently increased use of subcontracting, including investigations. Collectively, these trends appear to be fostering a tighter coupling of local child welfare agencies with other service providers. Some of these connections may improve families’ access to a range of services. However, the increased reliance on private providers may also undermine accountability and flexibility to respond to changing needs. PMID:29491548

Streamflow trends in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, H.F.; Slack, J.R.

1999-01-01

Secular trends in streamflow are evaluated for 395 climate-sensitive streamgaging stations in the conterminous United States using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Trends are calculated for selected quantiles of discharge, from the 0th to the 100th percentile, to evaluate differences between low-, medium-, and high-flow regimes during the twentieth century. Two general patterns emerge; trends are most prevalent in the annual minimum (Q0) to median (Q50) flow categories and least prevalent in the annual maximum (Q100) category; and, at all but the highest quantiles, streamflow has increased across broad sections of the United States. Decreases appear only in parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Systematic patterns are less apparent in the Q100 flow. Hydrologically, these results indicate that the conterminous U.S. is getting wetter, but less extreme.

Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2016-04-01

Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

Is Afro-American Studies Research in Jeopardy? A Review of Recent Trends in Federal Research Support.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tucker, M. Belinda

1984-01-01

An investigation of Federal funding for Afro-American related projects for 1978 through 1983 shows that, during this period, research in the areas where Afro-American research is overwhelmingly concentrated--the social sciences and the humanities--has not kept pace with the substantial increases apparent in the funding of research in the…

1955 Pulpwood production in the south

Treesearch

James W. Cruikshank; J.F. McCormack

1956-01-01

Another record high was established in pulpwood production by southern states during 1955. The total harvest amounted to 18,014,600 cords, an increase of 1,745,000 cords, or 10.7 percent, over production in 1954. The sharp upward trend of production in the South is especially apparent when compared with earlier years. The 1955 cut was about double the amount cut in...

The ‘apparent clearance’ of free phenytoin in elderly vs. younger adults

PubMed Central

Wright, Daniel F B; Begg, Evan J

2010-01-01

AIMS To test the hypothesis that the ‘apparent clearance’ of free phenytoin is reduced in elderly patients. METHODS Two separate studies were conducted comparing free phenytoin ‘apparent clearance’ in elderly vs. younger adults. The first study was a retrospective analysis of free phenytoin concentrations measured at Christchurch Hospital from 1997 to 2006. In the second study free phenytoin concentrations were measured prospectively in ambulatory subjects who were taking phenytoin regularly. RESULTS In the retrospective study (n = 29), free phenytoin ‘apparent clearance’ was 0.27 ± 0.04 l kg−1 day−1 (95% CI 0.19, 0.34) in the elderly cohort vs. 0.37 ± 0.06 l kg−1 day−1 (95% CI 0.22, 0.52) in younger adults, but the difference was not statistically significant. In the prospective study, free phenytoin ‘apparent clearance’ showed a non-significant trend to being reduced in the elderly patients (0.12 ± 0.02 l kg−1 day−1, 95% CI 0.07, 0.17) compared with the younger cohort (0.18 ± 0.07 l kg−1 day−1, 95% CI 0.09, 0.26) in those not taking interacting drugs (n = 21). CONCLUSIONS This research does not prove the hypothesis that the ‘apparent clearance’ of free phenytoin is reduced in the elderly. However, the trends found in these two studies are supported by trends in the same direction in other published studies, suggesting an age effect. PMID:20642556

Topics in the Journal of Counseling Psychology, 1963-2015.

PubMed

Oh, JungSu; Stewart, Alan E; Phelps, Rosemary E

2017-11-01

Historical trends in a scientific field should be apparent in the changing content of journal articles over time. Using a topic modeling approach, a statistical method for quantifying the thematic content of text, 70 topics were extracted from the abstracts of 3,603 articles published in the Journal of Counseling Psychology from 1963 to 2015. After examining interpretability of 70 topics derived from the model, 64 meaningful topics and their trends were named. In addition, the authors also classified some of the related topics into 4 categories-counseling process and outcome, multiculturalism, research methodology, and vocational psychology. Counseling process and outcome related topics have decreased recently, while topics relating to multiculturalism and diversity have shown increasing trends. The authors also discussed trends that were observed and tried to account for the changing frequencies of some important research topics within these categories. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Variability of Solar Radiation under Cloud-Free Skies in China: The Role of Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Qian, Yun; Wang, Weiguo; Leung, L. ruby; Kaiser, Dale P.

2007-01-01

In this study, we analyzed long-term surface global and diffuse solar radiation, aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA), and relative humidity (RH) from China. Our analysis reveals that much of China experienced significant decreases in global solar radiation (GSR) and increases in diffuse solar radiation under cloud-free skies between the 1960s and 1980s. With RH and aerosol SSA being rather constant during that time period, we suggest that the increasing aerosol loading from emission of pollutants is responsible for the observed reduced GSR and increased diffuse radiation in cloud-free skies. Although pollutant emissions continue to increase after the 1980s, the increment of aerosol SSA since 1980s can partly explain the transition of GSR from a decreasing trend to no apparent trend around that time. Preliminary analysis is also provided on the potential role of RH in affecting the global and diffuse solar radiation reaching the earth surface.

Measuring the short-term impact of fluoridation cessation on dental caries in Grade 2 children using tooth surface indices.

PubMed

McLaren, Lindsay; Patterson, Steven; Thawer, Salima; Faris, Peter; McNeil, Deborah; Potestio, Melissa; Shwart, Luke

2016-06-01

To examine the short-term impact of fluoridation cessation on children's caries experience measured by tooth surfaces. If there is an adverse short-term effect of cessation, it should be apparent when we focus on smooth tooth surfaces, where fluoride is most likely to have an impact for the age group and time frame considered in this study. We examined data from population-based samples of school children (Grade 2) in two similar cities in the province of Alberta, Canada: Calgary, where cessation occurred in May 2011 and Edmonton where fluoridation remains in place. We analysed change over time (2004/2005 to 2013/2014) in summary data for primary (defs) and permanent (DMFS) teeth for Calgary and Edmonton, for all tooth surfaces and smooth surfaces only. We also considered, for 2013/2014 only, the exposed subsample defined as lifelong residents who reported usually drinking tap water. We observed, across the full sample, an increase in primary tooth decay (mean defs - all surfaces and smooth surfaces) in both cities, but the magnitude of the increase was greater in Calgary (F-cessation) than in Edmonton (F-continued). For permanent tooth decay, when focusing on smooth surfaces among those affected (those with DMFS>0), we observed a non-significant trend towards an increase in Calgary (F-cessation) that was not apparent in Edmonton (F-continued). Trends observed for primary teeth were consistent with an adverse effect of fluoridation cessation on children's tooth decay, 2.5-3 years post-cessation. Trends for permanent teeth hinted at early indication of an adverse effect. It is important that future data collection efforts in the two cities be undertaken, to permit continued monitoring of these trends. © 2016 The Authors. Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

[Emergy of agro-ecosystem in Hunan Province: evolution and trend].

PubMed

Zhu, Yu-Lin; Li, Ming-Jie

2012-02-01

By using emergy analysis method, a trend analysis was made on the total emergy, its input-output structure, and emergy indices of the agro-ecosystem in Hunan Province of South-central China from 1999 to 2008. In the study period, the available total emergy input of the ecosystem was basically maintained at a stable level, but the input structure changed with the input of non-renewable industrial auxiliary emergy increased from 4.00E+22 sej in 1999 to 5.53E+22 sej in 2008, while that of renewable organic emergy decreased from 1.32E+23 sej to 1.20E+23 sej. Both the total emergy output and the output efficiency of the ecosystem had a great increase, with the total output reached 1.69E+23 sej in 2008, which was 23.8% higher than that in 1999, and the net output ratio increased from 0.79 to 0.96. Owing to the ever-increasing trend of the environmental loading ratio which was from 1.12 to 1.79, the sustainable development index of the ecosystem presented a decreasing trend, from 0.71 to 0.54, indicating that the agriculture in Hunan Province was overall belonged to the type of ecosystem driven by high consumption, and had relatively apparent extensive development characteristics.

Extent and origin of resistance to antituberculosis drugs in the Netherlands, 1993 to 2011.

PubMed

Ruesen, C; van Gageldonk-Lafeber, A B; de Vries, G; Erkens, C G; van Rest, J; Korthals Altes, H; de Neeling, H; Kamst, M; van Soolingen, D

2014-03-20

The elimination of tuberculosis (TB) is threatened by an apparent increase in the level of resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. In the Netherlands, where the majority of TB patients are migrants, resistance may also be increasing. We conducted a retrospective study, using 18,294 M. tuberculosis isolates from TB cases notified between 1993 and 2011. We investigated the trends in antituberculosis drug resistance, focusing on the country of birth of the patients and whether resistance had developed during treatment or was the result of transmission of resistant M. tuberculosis strains. For both scenarios, we determined whether this had happened in or outside the Netherlands. Antituberculosis drug resistance was found in 13% of all cases analysed and showed an increasing trend among patients who had been born in the Netherlands (p<0.001) and a decreasing trend among foreign-born (p=0.02) over the study period. Since 2005, the proportion of M. tuberculosis resistant strains among all strains tested has increased in both groups (p=0.03 and p=0.01, respectively). Overall, we found a significantly increasing trend when excluding streptomycin resistance (p<0.001). The trend was most markedly increased for isoniazid resistance (p = 0.01). Although resistance was mainly due to transmission of resistant strains, mostly outside the Netherlands or before 1993 (when DNA fingerprinting was not systematically performed), in some cases (n=45), resistance was acquired in the Netherlands. We conclude that antituberculosis drug resistance is increasing in the Netherlands, mostly related to migration from high TB-incidence countries, but also to domestic acquisition.

Trends in youth reports of sexual solicitations, harassment and unwanted exposure to pornography on the Internet.

PubMed

Mitchell, Kimberly J; Wolak, Janis; Finkelhor, David

2007-02-01

This study was designed to track trends in reports of unwanted sexual solicitations, harassment, and unwanted exposure to pornography via the Internet between 2000 and 2005 across various demographic sub-groups of youth. Cross-sectional data was collected in two equivalent national telephone surveys of 1500 Internet users, ages 10 through 17 years. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine whether the percentage of youth reporting specific unwanted Internet experiences had changed in 2005, as compared with 2000. The overall incidence and 5-year trends of reporting unwanted sexual solicitations, harassment, and unwanted exposure to pornography varied by age, gender, race, and household income. In particular, the decline in the percentage of youth reporting sexual solicitations was apparent for both boys and girls, all age groups, but not among minority youth and those living in less affluent households. The increase in harassment among particular sub-groups of youth was largely explained by increases in amount of Internet use over the past five years. The increase in unwanted exposure to pornography was particularly apparent among 10- to 12-year-olds, 16- to 17-year-olds, boys, and White, non-Hispanic youth. The decline in the percentage of youth reporting sexual solicitations may be the effect of education and law enforcement activity on this issue in the intervening years. Targeted prevention efforts for minority youth and those living in less affluent households need to be developed. The rise in unwanted pornography exposure may reflect technological changes such as digital photography, faster Internet connections and computer storage capacities, as well as the more aggressive marketing strategies of pornography merchants.

Variability of the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index across the north slope of Alaska in the 1990s

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stow, D.; Daeschner, Scott; Hope, A.; Douglas, David C.; Petersen, A.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Zhou, L.; Oechel, W.

2003-01-01

The interannual variability and trend of above-ground photosynthetic activity of Arctic tundra vegetation in the 1990s is examined for the north slope region of Alaska, based on the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index (SINDVI) derived from local area coverage (LAC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. Smaller SINDVI values occurred during the three years (1992-1994) following the volcanic eruption of Mt Pinatubo. Even after implementing corrections for this stratospheric aerosol effect and adjusting for changes in radiometric calibration coefficients, an apparent increasing trend of SINDVI in the 1990s is evident for the entire north slope. The most pronounced increase was observed for the foothills physiographical province.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Naizhuo; Zhou, Yuyu; Samson, Eric L.

The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) nighttime lights imagery has proven to be a powerful remote sensing tool to monitor urbanization and assess socioeconomic activities at large scales. However, the existence of incompatible digital number (DN) values and geometric errors severely limit application of nighttime light image data on multi-year quantitative research. In this study we extend and improve previous studies on inter-calibrating nighttime lights image data to obtain more compatible and reliable nighttime lights time series (NLT) image data for China and the United States (US) through four steps: inter-calibration, geometric correction, steady increase adjustment, andmore » population data correction. We then use gross domestic product (GDP) data to test the processed NLT image data indirectly and find that sum light (summed DN value of pixels in a nighttime light image) maintains apparent increase trends with relatively large GDP growth rates but does not increase or decrease with relatively small GDP growth rates. As nighttime light is a sensitive indicator for economic activity, the temporally consistent trends between sum light and GDP growth rate imply that brightness of nighttime lights on the ground is correctly represented by the processed NLT image data. Finally, through analyzing the corrected NLT image data from 1992 to 2008, we find that China experienced apparent nighttime lights development in 1992-1997 and 2001-2008 respectively and the US suffered from nighttime lights decay in large areas after 2001.« less

A variable parameter single degree-of-freedom model for predicting the effects of sitting posture and vibration magnitude on the vertical apparent mass of the human body.

PubMed

Toward, Martin G R; Griffin, Michael J

2010-01-01

Models of the vertical apparent mass of the human body are mostly restricted to a sitting posture unsupported by a backrest and ignore the variations in apparent mass associated with changes in posture and changes in the magnitude of vibration. Using findings from experimental research, this study fitted a single degree-of-freedom lumped parameter model to the measured vertical apparent mass of the body measured with a range of sitting postures and vibration magnitudes. The resulting model reflects the effects of reclining a rigid backrest or reclining a foam backrest (from 0 to 30 degrees), the effects of moving the hands from the lap to a steering wheel, the effects of moving the horizontal position of the feet, and the effects of vibration magnitude (from 0.125 to 1.6 ms(-2) r.m.s.). The error between the modelled and the measured apparent mass was minimised, for both the apparent masses of individual subjects and the median apparent masses of groups of 12 subjects, for each sitting posture and each vibration magnitude. Trends in model parameters, the damping ratios, and the damped natural frequencies were identified as a function of the model variables and show the effects of posture and vibration magnitude on body dynamics. For example, contact with a rigid backrest increased the derived damped natural frequency of the principal resonance as a result of reduced moving mass and increased stiffness. When the rigid backrest was reclined from 0 to 30º, the damping decreased and the resonance frequency increased as a result of reduced moving mass. It is concluded that, by appropriate variations in model parameters, a single degree-of-freedom model can provide a useful fit to the vertical apparent mass of the human body over a wide range of postures and vibration magnitudes. When measuring or modelling seat transmissibility, it may be difficult to justify an apparent mass model with more than a single degree-of-freedom if it does not reflect the large influences of vibration magnitude, body posture, and individual variability.

Women in medicine: historical perspectives and recent trends.

PubMed

Jefferson, Laura; Bloor, Karen; Maynard, Alan

2015-06-01

Women now outnumber men in British medical schools. This paper charts the history of women in medicine and provides current demographic trends. A historical literature review and routinely collected data from Department of Health and the Health and Social Care Information Centre. Clear gender differences are apparent in working practices, including greater likelihood of working part time and specializing in certain areas of medicine. The increasing need to increase activity among the existing medical workforce is timely amidst a changing workforce demographic. Workforce planners, policymakers and Royal Colleges should continue to develop interventions that may reduce disparities in career choices, as well as considering ways to increase participation and activity. Further research is needed to explore the cost-effectiveness of existing and future interventions in this field. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of land use/land cover change on changes in surface solar radiation in eastern China since the reform and opening up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Cheng

2016-01-01

Observational evidence of the impacts of land use/land cover change (LULCC) on changes in surface solar radiation (SSR) in eastern China (EC) during 1979-2008 are identified by using diurnal temperature range as a proxy of SSR and by using observation minus reanalysis approach to disentangle these effects. For the period 1979-2008, the impact of LULCC is shown as a reduction in SSR in most stations in EC, whereas SSR in the reanalysis data has increased at nearly every location. The competition of the dimming effect of LULCC with the brightening effect in the reanalysis results in an observed dipole pattern of SSR with slightly decreasing (increasing) trends in most stations north (south) of the Yangtze River and statistically significant decreasing trends in central EC. In terms of EC area mean, this competition has resulted in a slightly dimming trend in the observed SSR during 1979-2008, although a transition from an apparent dimming to a general leveling off near 1990 is identified. For the period 1990-2008, LULCC has significantly reduced SSR in central EC and southern China. This dimming effect of LULCC competes with the apparent brightening effect in the reanalysis to result in the general leveling off in the observed SSR in terms of EC area mean and a sandwich spatial pattern in the observed SSR in EC where parts of central EC show significant dimming. The impact of LULCC on the changes in SSR may be through both biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes.

Factors associated with the increasing trend of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy among patients with ductal carcinoma in situ: Analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data.

PubMed

You, Qiuting; Chen, Kai; Li, Yudong; Lai, Jianguo; Fang, Yichao; Shen, Shiyu; Liu, Yicheng; Su, Fengxi; Yu, Fengyan

2018-05-22

Our study aimed to investigate the factors influencing trends of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) among patients with unilateral ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data to identify patients with unilateral DCIS diagnosed from 1998 to 2013. Patients were categorized as breast-conserving surgery (BCS), Unilateral Mastectomy and CPM group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were applied to assess the factors associated with undergoing CPM among mastectomy patients. The trends of CPM among mastectomy patients through year were presented by different subgroups of sociodemographic and pathological characteristics. Of those, 105326 patients with DCIS were identified, and 6370 patients underwent CPM. The proportion of CPM was 6.05% for all surgically-treated patients and 21.09% for mastectomy patients, and it increased more than six-fold between 1998 and 2013 (from 1.74% to 10.89% for all surgically-treated patients and from 5.44% to 37.47% for mastectomy patients). Younger age, white race, married status, smaller tumor size, positive ER and PR status were significantly associated with higher CPM proportion among mastectomy patients. The proportion of CPM was increasing through year, and the increasing trends were obvious in the subgroups of younger, white, married, metropolitan, with higher bachelor degree and higher median family income patients, while there were no apparent differences in the trends between subgroups of pathological characteristics. The trends of CPM among mastectomy patients were increasing through years and influenced by patients' sociodemographic characteristics, but not pathological characteristics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of concentration-dependence of thermodynamic properties of lanthanum, yttrium, scandium and terbium in eutectic LiCl-KCl molten salt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yafei; Zhou, Wentao; Zhang, Jinsuo

2016-09-01

Thermodynamic properties of rare earth metals in LiCl-KCl molten salt electrolyte are crucial to the development of electrochemical separation for the treatment of used nuclear fuels. In the present study, activity coefficient, apparent potential, and diffusion coefficient of lanthanum, yttrium, scandium, and terbium in the molten salt (58 at% LiCl and 42 at% KCl) were calculated by the method of molecular dynamics simulation up to a concentration around 3 at% at temperatures of 723 K and 773 K. It was found that the activity coefficient and the apparent potential increase with the species concentration while diffusion coefficient shows a trend of increase followed by decrease. The calculated results were validated by available measurement data of dilution cases. This research extends the range of data to a wide component and would provide further insight to the pyroprocessing design and safeguards.

Using NASA's Giovanni System to Simulate Time-Series Stations in the Outflow Region of California's Eel River

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acker, James G.; Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Lee, Zhongping

2012-01-01

Oceanographic time-series stations provide vital data for the monitoring of oceanic processes, particularly those associated with trends over time and interannual variability. There are likely numerous locations where the establishment of a time-series station would be desirable, but for reasons of funding or logistics, such establishment may not be feasible. An alternative to an operational time-series station is monitoring of sites via remote sensing. In this study, the NASA Giovanni data system is employed to simulate the establishment of two time-series stations near the outflow region of California s Eel River, which carries a high sediment load. Previous time-series analysis of this location (Acker et al. 2009) indicated that remotely-sensed chl a exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend during summer (low flow) months, but no apparent trend during winter (high flow) months. Examination of several newly-available ocean data parameters in Giovanni, including 8-day resolution data, demonstrates the differences in ocean parameter trends at the two locations compared to regionally-averaged time-series. The hypothesis that the increased summer chl a values are related to increasing SST is evaluated, and the signature of the Eel River plume is defined with ocean optical parameters.

Recent Trends in the Structure of the Cable Television Industry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perry, Martin

After a brief review of the growth of cable television from 1948 to 1965, the paper examines in more detail trends in the structure of the industry since 1965. Specifically, interest revolves around the apparent trends of concentration and vertical integration within the industry. Corporate histories of the leading firms are then used to…

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

PubMed Central

Kelley, Colin P.; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A.; Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan

2015-01-01

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system. PMID:25733898

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought.

PubMed

Kelley, Colin P; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A; Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan

2015-03-17

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Colin P.; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A.; Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan

2015-03-01

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

Trends in the aetiology of urogenital fistula: a case of 'retrogressive evolution'?

PubMed

Hilton, Paul

2016-06-01

It has long been held as conventional wisdom that urogenital fistulae in low-income and middle-income countries are almost exclusively of obstetric aetiology, related to prolonged neglected obstructed labour, whereas those seen in high-income countries are largely iatrogenic in nature. There is, however, a growing perception amongst those working in the field that an increasing proportion of urogenital fistulae in low-income and middle-income countries may be iatrogenic, resulting from caesarean section. Recent studies suggest that adverse patterns of care may also be emerging in high-income countries; an increase in the risk of both vesicovaginal and ureterovaginal fistulae following hysterectomy has been reported, concurrently with the reduction in overall use of the procedure. These apparent secular trends are discussed in the context of evolution of practice, teaching and training in obstetrics and gynaecology.

Are Binary Separations related to their System Mass?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterzik, M. F.; Durisen, R. H.

2004-08-01

We compile most recent multiplicity fractions and binary separation distributions for different primary masses, including very low-mass and brown dwarf primaries, and compare them with dynamical decay models of small-N clusters. The model predictions are based on detailed numerical calculations of the internal cluster dynamics, as well as on Monte-Carlo methods. Both observations and models reflect the same trends: (1) The multiplicity fraction is an increasing function of the primary mass. (2) The mean binary separations are increasing with the system mass in the sense that very low-mass binaries have average separations around ≈ 4AU, while the binary separation distribution for solar-type primaries peaks at ≈ 40AU. M-type binary systems apparently preferentially populate intermediate separations. Similar specific energy at the time of cluster formation for all cluster masses can possibly explain this trend.

Seasonal to multi-decadal trends in apparent optical properties in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, James G.; Nelson, Norman B.; Siegel, David A.

2017-01-01

Multi-decadal, monthly observations of optical and biogeochemical properties, made as part of the Bermuda Bio-Optics Project (BBOP) at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site in the Sargasso Sea, allow for the examination of temporal trends in vertical light attenuation and their potential controls. Trends in the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient, Kd(λ), and a proxy for its spectral shape reflect changes in phytoplankton and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) characteristics. The length and methodological consistency of this time series provide an excellent opportunity to extend analyses of seasonal cycles of apparent optical properties to interannual and decadal time scales. Here, we characterize changes in the magnitude and spectral shape proxy of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectra and compare them to available biological and optical data from the BATS time series program. The time series analyses reveal a 1.01%±0.18% annual increase of the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 443 nm over the upper 75 m of the water column while showing no significant change in selected spectral characteristics over the study period. These and other observations indicate that changes in phytoplankton rather than changes in CDOM abundance are the primary driver for the diffuse attenuation trends on multi-year timescales for this region. Our findings are inconsistent with previous decadal-scale global ocean water clarity and global satellite ocean color analyses yet are consistent with recent analyses of the BATS time series and highlight the value of long-term consistent observation at ocean time series sites.

Spatial patterns and temporal trends in mercury concentrations, precipitation depths, and mercury wet deposition in the North American Great Lakes region, 2002-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risch, Martin R.; Gay, David A.; Fowler, Kathleen K.; Keeler, Gerard J.; Backus, Sean M.; Blanchard, Pierrette; Barres, James A.; Dvonch, J. Timothy

2012-01-01

Annual and weekly mercury (Hg) concentrations, precipitation depths, and Hg wet deposition in the Great Lakes region were analyzed by using data from 5 monitoring networks in the USA and Canada for a 2002-2008 study period. High-resolution maps of calculated annual data, 7-year mean data, and net interannual change for the study period were prepared to assess spatial patterns. Areas with 7-year mean annual Hg concentrations higher than the 12 ng per liter water-quality criterion were mapped in 4 states. Temporal trends in measured weekly data were determined statistically. Monitoring sites with significant 7-year trends in weekly Hg wet deposition were spatially separated and were not sites with trends in weekly Hg concentration. During 2002-2008, Hg wet deposition was found to be unchanged in the Great Lakes region and its subregions. Any small decreases in Hg concentration apparently were offset by increases in precipitation.

Hydrological influences on the water quality trends in Tamiraparani Basin, South India.

PubMed

Ravichandran, S

2003-09-01

Water quality variables--Turbidity, pH, Electrical Conductivity (EC), Chlorides and Total Hardness (TH) were monitored at a downstream location in the Tamiraparani River during 1978-1992. The observations were made at weekly intervals in a water treatment and supply plant using standard methods. Graphical and statistical analyses were used for data exploration, trend detection and assessment. Box-Whisker plots of annual and seasonal changes in variables indicated apparent trends being present in the data and their response to the seasonal influence of the monsoon rainfall. Further, the examination of the median values of the variables indicated that changes in the direction of trend occurred during 1985-1986, especially in pH, EC and TH. The statistical analyses were done using non-parametric methods, the ANCOVA on rank transformed data and the Seasonal Man-Kendall test. The presence of monotonic trend in all the water quality variables was confirmed, however, with independent direction of change. The trend line was fitted by the method of least squares. The estimated values indicated significant increases in EC (28 microS cm(-1)) while significant decreases were observed in turbidity (90 NTU), pH (0.78), and total hardness (23 ppm) in a span of 15 years. The changes induced in river flow by the addition of a stabilizing reservoir, the influence of seasonal and spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall across the river basin and the increased agriculture appear causative factors for the water quality trends seen in the Tamiraparani River system.

Tectonic control of the crustal organic carbon reservoir during the Precambrian

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Des Marais, D. J.

1994-01-01

Carbon isotopic trends indicate that the crustal reservoir of reduced, organic carbon increased during the Proterozoic, particularly during periods of widespread continental rifting and orogeny. No long-term trends are apparent in the concentration of organic carbon in shales, cherts and carbonates. The age distribution of 261 sample site localities sampled for well-preserved sedimentary rocks revealed a 500-700-Ma periodicity which coincided with tectonic cycles. It is assumed that the numbers of sites are a proxy for mass of sediments. A substantial increase in the number of sites in the late Archean correlates with the first appearance between 2.9 and 2.5 Ga of extensive continental platforms and their associated sedimentation. It is proposed that the size of the Proterozoic crustal organic carbon reservoir has been modulated by tectonic control of the volume of sediments deposited in environments favorable for the burial and preservation of organic matter. Stepwise increases in this reservoir would have caused the oxidation state of the Proterozoic environment to increase in a stepwise fashion.

No Trend in the Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce

PubMed Central

LI, JUI-CHUNG ALLEN; WU, LAWRENCE L.

2008-01-01

Previous studies on trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce have produced mixed findings, with two studies (McLanahan and Bumpass 1988; Teachman 2002) reporting no trend in divorce transmission and one study (Wolfinger 1999) finding that divorce transmission has weakened substantially. Using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model, we analyze data from the National Survey of Families and Households and find no evidence for any trend in divorce transmission. To reconcile apparent differences in results, we note that the General Social Survey data used by Wolfinger lack information on marital duration, permitting analysis only for whether respondents have divorced by interview. As a result, an apparent decline in divorce transmission could be due to inadequate adjustments for the longer exposures to risk by earlier marriage cohorts, yielding a higher probability of divorce by interview for earlier cohorts relative to more recent cohorts even if divorce risks are identical across all marriage cohorts. We confirm this possibility by using a series of discrete-time hazard logistic regressions to investigate the sensitivity of estimates of trends in divorce transmission to different adjustments for exposure to risk. We conclude that there has been no trend in the intergenerational transmission of divorce. PMID:19110902

Activation of liver carnitine palmitoyltransferase-1 and mitochondrial acetoacetyl-CoA thiolase is associated with elevated ketone body levels in the elasmobranch Squalus acanthias.

PubMed

Treberg, Jason R; Crockett, Elizabeth L; Driedzic, William R

2006-01-01

Elasmobranch fishes are an ancient group of vertebrates that have unusual lipid metabolism whereby storage lipids are mobilized from the liver for peripheral oxidation largely as ketone bodies rather than as nonesterified fatty acids under normal conditions. This reliance on ketones, even when feeding, implies that elasmobranchs are chronically ketogenic. Compared to specimens sampled within 2 d of capture (recently captured), spiny dogfish Squalus acanthias that were held for 16-33 d without apparent feeding displayed a 4.5-fold increase in plasma concentration of d- beta -hydroxybutyrate (from 0.71 to 3.2 mM) and were considered ketotic. Overt activity of carnitine palmitoyltransferase-1 in liver mitochondria from ketotic dogfish was characterized by an increased apparent maximal activity, a trend of increasing affinity (reduced apparent K(m); P=0.09) for l-carnitine, and desensitization to the inhibitor malonyl-CoA relative to recently captured animals. Acetoacetyl-CoA thiolase (ACoAT) activity in isolated liver mitochondria was also markedly increased in the ketotic dogfish compared to recently captured fish, whereas no difference in 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA synthase activity was found between these groups, suggesting that ACoAT plays a more important role in the activation of ketogenesis in spiny dogfish than in mammals and birds.

Variations in extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau using a high-resolution dataset and their linkages with atmospheric circulation indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guangju; Zhai, Jianqing; Tian, Peng; Zhang, Limei; Mu, Xingmin; An, Zhengfeng; Han, Mengwei

2017-08-01

Assessing regional patterns and trends in extreme precipitation is crucial for facilitating flood control and drought adaptation because extreme climate events have more damaging impacts on society and ecosystems than simple shifts in the mean values. In this study, we employed daily precipitation data from 231 climate stations spanning 1961 to 2014 to explore the changes in precipitation extremes on the Loess Plateau, China. Nine of the 12 extreme precipitation indices suggested decreasing trends, and only the annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and R10 declined significantly: - 0.69 mm/a and - 0.023 days/a at the 95% confidence level. The spatial patterns in all of the extreme precipitation indices indicated mixed trends on the Loess Plateau, with decreasing trends in the precipitation extremes at the majority of the stations examined in the Fen-Wei River valley and high-plain plateau. Most of extreme precipitation indices suggested apparent regional differences, whereas R25 and R20 had spatially similar patterns on the Loess Plateau, with many stations revealing no trends. In addition, we found a potential decreasing trend in rainfall amounts and rainy days and increasing trends in rainfall intensities and storm frequencies in some regions due to increasing precipitation events in recent years. The relationships between extreme rainfall events and atmospheric circulation indices suggest that the weakening trend in the East Asia summer monsoon has limited the northward extension of the rainfall belt to northern China, thereby leading to a decrease in rainfall on the Loess Plateau.

The characteristics on spatiotemporal variations of summer heatwaves in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qixiang, C.; Wang, L.; Wu, S., II; Li, Y.

2016-12-01

Summer heatwaves in China have impacts on forestry, agriculture resource, infrastructure, and heat -related illness and mortality. Based on daily air temperature and relative humidity from the Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, the spatial distribution and trends of the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves in China during 1960-2015 were analyzed. Considering climatic variability, we defined a heatwave as a spell of consecutive days with maximum temperatures exceeding the relative threshold (temperature percentile) .We also consider a indices combined hot days and tropical nights (CHT), and the humidity-corrected apparent temperature (AT) to analyze the health impacts of hot days in summer. This study shows that while the average frequency and duration of heatwaves has an increasing trend since 1990s, the North China Plain has a decreasing trend. This study also shows that the largest CHT values occur in southeast China, and the largest AT values occur in South China.

Spatial analysis of the annual and seasonal aridity trends in Extremadura, southwestern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moral, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; García-Martín, Abelardo

2017-11-01

The knowledge of drought (or wetness) conditions is necessary not only for a rational use of water resources but also for explaining landscape and ecology characteristics. An increase in aridity in many areas of the world is expected because of climate change (global warming). With the aim of analysing annual and seasonal aridity trends in Extremadura, southwestern Spain, climate data from 81 locations within the 1951-2010 period were used. After computing the De Martonne aridity index at each location, a geographic information system (GIS) and multivariate geostatistics (regression kriging) were utilised to map this index throughout the region. Later, temporal trends were analysed using the Mann-Kendall test, and the Sen's estimator was utilised to estimate the magnitude of trends. Maps of aridity trends were generated by ordinary kriging algorithm, providing a visualisation of detected annual and seasonal tendencies. An increase in aridity, as the De Martonne aridity index decreased, was apparent during the study period, mainly in the more humid locations of the north of the region. An increase of the seasonal De Martonne aridity index was also found, but it was only statistically significant in some locations in spring and summer, with the highest decreasing rate in the north of Extremadura. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum graphs, obtaining that firstly the change point occurred in spring, in the mid-1970s, later in the annual period in the late 1970s and finally in summer at the end of the 1980s.

State-specific trends in preterm delivery: are rates really declining among non-Hispanic African Americans across the United States?

PubMed

Vahratian, Anjel; Buekens, Pierre; Alexander, Greg R

2006-01-01

This study sought to examine state-specific trends in preterm delivery rates among non-Hispanic African Americans and to assess whether these rates are influenced by misclassification of gestational age. The sample population consisted of singleton non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic African-American infants born in 1991 and 2001 to U.S. resident mothers. For both time periods, state-specific and national preterm delivery rates were calculated for all infants, stratified by infant race/ethnicity. Next, birth-weight distributions within strata of gestational age were studied to explore possible misclassifications of gestational age. Lastly, state-specific and national preterm delivery rates among infants who weighed less than 2,500 g were separately computed. National analyses showed that the frequency of preterm delivery increased by 15.8% among non-Hispanic Whites but declined by 10.3% among non-Hispanic African Americans over the same period. For both subgroups, a bimodal distribution of birth weights was apparent among preterm births at 28-31 weeks of gestation. The second peak with its cluster of normal-weight infants was more prominent among non-Hispanic African Americans in 1991 than in 2001. After excluding preterm infants who weighed 2,500 g or more, the national trends persisted. State-specific analyses showed that preterm delivery rates increased for both subgroups in 13 states during this period. Of these 13, 6 states had a number of non-Hispanic African-American births classified as preterm that were apparently term births mistakenly assigned short gestational ages. Such misclassification was more frequent in 1991 than in 2001 and inflated 1991 rates. There is heterogeneity in state-specific preterm delivery rates. Such differences are often overlooked when aggregate results are presented.

The relationship between social stratification and all-cause mortality among children in the United States: 1968-1992.

PubMed

DiLiberti, J H

2000-01-01

US childhood poverty rates have increased for most of the past 2 decades. Although overall mortality among children has apparently fallen during this interval, these aggregate mortality rates may hide a disproportionate burden imposed on the least advantaged. This study assessed the impact of social stratification on long-term US childhood mortality rates and examined the temporal relationship between mortality attributable to social stratification and childhood poverty rates. Using US childhood mortality data obtained from the Compressed Mortality File (National Center for Health Statistics) and a county-level measure of social stratification (residential telephone availability), I evaluated the impact of social stratification on long-term trends (1968-1992) in age-adjusted mortality and compared the resulting attributable proportions to trends in childhood poverty rates. Between 1968 and 1987 the proportion of US childhood deaths attributable to social stratification decreased from.22 to.17. Subsequently, it increased to.24 in 1992, despite continuous declines in overall childhood mortality rates. These proportions correlated strongly with earlier childhood poverty rates, taking into account an apparent 9-year lag. Among black children comparable trends were not observed, although throughout this time period their mortality rates were far higher than among the rest of the population and declined more slowly. Despite declining childhood mortality rates between 1968 and 1992, children living in the least advantaged counties continued to die at higher rates than those living in the most advantaged counties. This differential worsened considerably after 1987, and by 1992 had a substantive impact on US life expectancy at birth, resulting in perhaps the most significant (in terms of years of life lost) reversal in the health of the US public in the 20th century.

Spatial Variability of Perchlorate along a Traverse Route from Zhongshan Station to Dome A, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, S.; Cole-Dai, J.; Li, Y.; An, C.

2016-12-01

Snow deposition and accumulation on the Antarctic ice sheet preserve records of climatic change, as well as those of chemical characteristics of the environment. Chemical composition of snow and ice cores can be used to track the sources of important substances including pollutants and to investigate relationships between atmospheric chemistry and climatic conditions. Recent development in analytical methodology has enabled the determination of ultra-trace levels of perchlorate in polar snow. We have measured perchlorate concentrations in surface snow samples collected along a traverse route from Zhongshan Station to Dome A in East Antarctica to determine the level of atmospheric perchlorate in East Antarctica and to assess the spatial variability of perchlorate along the traverse route. Results show that the perchlorate concentrations vary between 32 and 200 ng kg-1, with an average of 104.3 ng kg-1. And perchlorate concentration profile presents regional variation patterns along the traverse route. In the coastal region, perchlorate concentration displays an apparent decreasing relationship with increasing distance inland; it exhibits no apparent trend in the intermediate region from 200 to 1000 km. The inland region from 1000 to 1244 km presents a generally increasing trend of perchlorate concentration approaching the dome. Different rates of atmospheric production, dilution by snow accumulation and re-deposition of snow-emitted perchlorate (post-depositional change) are the three possible factors influencing the spatial variability of perchlorate over Antarctica.

Time series analysis of demographic and temporal trends of tuberculosis in Singapore.

PubMed

Wah, Win; Das, Sourav; Earnest, Arul; Lim, Leo Kang Yang; Chee, Cynthia Bin Eng; Cook, Alex Richard; Wang, Yee Tang; Win, Khin Mar Kyi; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Hsu, Li Yang

2014-10-31

Singapore is an intermediate tuberculosis (TB) incidence country, with a recent rise in TB incidence from 2008, after a fall in incidence since 1998. This study identified population characteristics that were associated with the recent increase in TB cases, and built a predictive model of TB risk in Singapore. Retrospective time series analysis was used to study TB notification data collected from 1995 to 2011 from the Singapore Tuberculosis Elimination Program (STEP) registry. A predictive model was developed based on the data collected from 1995 to 2010 and validated using the data collected in 2011. There was a significant difference in demographic characteristics between resident and non-resident TB cases. TB risk was higher in non-residents than in residents throughout the period. We found no significant association between demographic and macro-economic factors and annual incidence of TB with or without adjusting for the population-at-risk. Despite growing non-resident population, there was a significant decrease in the non-resident TB risk (p < 0.0001). However, there was no evidence of trend in the resident TB risk over this time period, though differences between different demographic groups were apparent with ethnic minorities experiencing higher incidence rates. The study found that despite an increasing size of non-resident population, TB risk among non-residents was decreasing at a rate of about 3% per year. There was an apparent seasonality in the TB reporting.

Gasification Characteristics and Kinetics of Coke with Chlorine Addition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cui; Zhang, Jianliang; Jiao, Kexin; Liu, Zhengjian; Chou, Kuochih

2017-10-01

The gasification process of metallurgical coke with 0, 1.122, 3.190, and 7.132 wt pct chlorine was investigated through thermogravimetric method from ambient temperature to 1593 K (1320 °C) in purified CO2 atmosphere. The variations in the temperature parameters that T i decreases gradually with increasing chlorine, T f and T max first decrease and then increase, but both in a downward trend indicated that the coke gasification process was catalyzed by the chlorine addition. Then the kinetic model of the chlorine-containing coke gasification was obtained through the advanced determination of the average apparent activation energy, the optimal reaction model, and the pre-exponential factor. The average apparent activation energies were 182.962, 118.525, 139.632, and 111.953 kJ/mol, respectively, which were in the same decreasing trend with the temperature parameters analyzed by the thermogravimetric method. It was also demonstrated that the coke gasification process was catalyzed by chlorine. The optimal kinetic model to describe the gasification process of chlorine-containing coke was the Šesták Berggren model using Málek's method, and the pre-exponential factors were 6.688 × 105, 2.786 × 103, 1.782 × 104, and 1.324 × 103 min-1, respectively. The predictions of chlorine-containing coke gasification from the Šesták Berggren model were well fitted with the experimental data.

Thermal conductivity as influenced by the temperature and apparent viscosity of dairy products.

PubMed

Gonçalves, B J; Pereira, C G; Lago, A M T; Gonçalves, C S; Giarola, T M O; Abreu, L R; Resende, J V

2017-05-01

This study aimed to evaluate the rheological behavior and thermal conductivity of dairy products, composed of the same chemical components but with different formulations, as a function of temperature. Subsequently, thermal conductivity was related to the apparent viscosity of yogurt, fermented dairy beverage, and fermented milk. Thermal conductivity measures and rheological tests were performed at 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25°C using linear probe heating and an oscillatory rheometer with concentric cylinder geometry, respectively. The results were compared with those calculated using the parallel, series, and Maxwell-Eucken models as a function of temperature, and the discrepancies in the results are discussed. Linear equations were fitted to evaluate the influence of temperature on the thermal conductivity of the dairy products. The rheological behavior, specifically apparent viscosity versus shear rate, was influenced by temperature. Herschel-Bulkley, power law, and Newton's law models were used to fit the experimental data. The Herschel-Bulkley model best described the adjustments for yogurt, the power law model did so for fermented dairy beverages, and Newton's law model did so for fermented milk and was then used to determine the rheological parameters. Fermented milk showed a Newtonian trend, whereas yogurt and fermented dairy beverage were shear thinning. Apparent viscosity was correlated with temperature by the Arrhenius equation. The formulation influenced the effective thermal conductivity. The relationship between the 2 properties was established by fixing the temperature and expressing conductivity as a function of apparent viscosity. Thermal conductivity increased with viscosity and decreased with increasing temperature. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population and nutrition; implications of sociodemographic trends and differentials for food and nutrition policy in Central America and Panama.

PubMed

Teller, C; Sibrian, R; Talavera, C; Bent, V; Del Canto, J; Saenz, L

1979-01-01

This paper looks into some of the sociodemographic trends and differentials that may be influencing the lack of improvement in the food and nutrition situation in rural Central America. Evidence is presented that indicates that it is more difficult to reduce malnutrition and fertility than it was to reduce infant and child mortality initially. When sociostructural changes are not forthcoming after the initiation of the mortality decline, then resultant population growth, distribution and composition dynamics can hinder improvement in nutrition. In particular, changes in the social composition differentials as a result of selectivity in mortality, fertility and migration have apparently contributed to the increasing nutrition gap between the well-fed and the poorly-fed classes.

Weakened stratospheric quasibiennial oscillation driven by increased tropical mean upwelling.

PubMed

Kawatani, Yoshio; Hamilton, Kevin

2013-05-23

The zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere switches between prevailing easterlies and westerlies with a period of about 28 months. In the lowermost stratosphere, the vertical structure of this quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) is linked to the mean upwelling, which itself is a key factor in determining stratospheric composition. Evidence for changes in the QBO have until now been equivocal, raising questions as to the extent of stratospheric circulation changes in a global warming context. Here we report an analysis of near-equatorial radiosonde observations for 1953-2012, and reveal a long-term trend of weakening amplitude in the zonal wind QBO in the tropical lower stratosphere. The trend is particularly notable at the 70-hectopascal pressure level (an altitude of about 19 kilometres), where the QBO amplitudes dropped by roughly one-third over the period. This trend is also apparent in the global warming simulations of the four models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) that realistically simulate the QBO. The weakening is most reasonably explained as resulting from a trend of increased mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. Almost all comprehensive climate models have projected an intensifying tropical upwelling in global warming scenarios, but attempts to estimate changes in the upwelling by using observational data have yielded ambiguous, inconclusive or contradictory results. Our discovery of a weakening trend in the lower-stratosphere QBO amplitude provides strong support for the existence of a long-term trend of enhanced upwelling near the tropical tropopause.

Climate Change and Political Instability in Syria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, C. P.; Mohtadi, S.; Cane, M. A.; Seager, R.; Kushnir, Y.

2013-12-01

From 2005 to 2010, Syria experienced the most severe and persistent drought in the instrumental record, devastating the agriculture and causing widespread crop failure. A mass migration of farming families to urban peripheries followed the resulting food shortages, unemployment, and disruption of rural social structure. The addition of nearly 1.5 million drought refugees to the recent influx of Iraqi refugees greatly exacerbated conditions in the urban slums. Anger at the government's failure to respond to the drought's impacts contributed to the political unrest that began in March 2011. The recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without the trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. Compared to the natural variability alone, the trend has made the occurrence of such a severe drought eight times more likely. There has been also a long-term warming trend in Syria, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with observed increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. The severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, implicated as a cause of the current conflict, is highly likely to be a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

DOE PAGES

Kelley, Colin P.; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A.; ...

2015-03-02

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. In this paper, we show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Easternmore » Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Finally, analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.« less

The Diversity of the Pollen Tube Pathway in Plants: Toward an Increasing Control by the Sporophyte

PubMed Central

Lora, Jorge; Hormaza, José I.; Herrero, María

2016-01-01

Plants, unlike animals, alternate multicellular diploid, and haploid generations in their life cycle. While this is widespread all along the plant kingdom, the size and autonomy of the diploid sporophyte and the haploid gametophyte generations vary along evolution. Vascular plants show an evolutionary trend toward a reduction of the gametophyte, reflected both in size and lifespan, together with an increasing dependence from the sporophyte. This has resulted in an overlooking of the importance of the gametophytic phase in the evolution of higher plants. This reliance on the sporophyte is most notorious along the pollen tube journey, where the male gametophytes have to travel a long way inside the sporophyte to reach the female gametophyte. Along evolution, there is a change in the scenery of the pollen tube pathway that favors pollen competition and selection. This trend, toward apparently making complicated what could be simple, appears to be related to an increasing control of the sporophyte over the gametophyte with implications for understanding plant evolution. PMID:26904071

An assessment of optical and biogeochemical multi-decadal trends in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, J. G.; Siegel, D.; Nelson, N. B.

2016-02-01

Observations of optical and biogeochemical data, made as part of the Bermuda Bio-Optics Project (BBOP) at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site in the Sargasso Sea, allow for the examination of temporal trends in vertical light attenuation and their potential controls. Trends in both the magnitude and spectral slope of the diffuse attenuation coefficient should reflect changes in chlorophyll and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) concentrations in the Sargasso Sea. The length and methodological consistency of this time series provides an excellent opportunity to extend analyses of seasonal cycles of apparent optical properties to interannual and multi-year time scales. Here, we characterize changes in the size and shape of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectra and compare them to temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, and to discrete measurements of phytoplankton and CDOM absorption. The time series analyses reveal up to a 1.2% annual increase of the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient over the upper 70 m of the water column while showing no significant change in the spectral slope of diffuse attenuation over the course of the study. These observations indicate that increases in phytoplankton pigment concentration rather than changes in CDOM are the primary driver for the attenuation trends on multi-year timescales for this region.

On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

Women's health: explaining the trend in gender ratio in Iran over half a century (1956-2006).

PubMed

Farzadi, F; Ahmadi, B; Shariati, B; Alimohamadian, M; Mohamad, K

2010-02-01

Changes in gender ratio generally reflect differences in mortality rates in men and women. Female mortality rates, on the other hand, can be used as an index of the trends in women's health. This study looks at the trend in the population gender ratio from 1956 to 2006, with a focus on analysing mortality rates and hence the overall health of Iranian women over the last 50 years. Cohort-type analysis using data from the last five population censuses in Iran. Data were used to calculate gender ratios and analyse their trends over the 50-year period from 1956 to 2006. According to the 1956 Census, there were 98 men for every 100 women in the 25-34 years age group (male:female ratio=0.98). In the next census, conducted 10 years later (1966), the gender ratio increased to 121 in the 39-44 years age group. The discrepancy increased in later censuses; this trend indicates that mortality in the 25-34 years age group was significantly higher in 1956-1966 compared with subsequent decades. The social and economic crises of the 1940s probably left women of reproductive age exceptionally vulnerable to a wide range of adverse health outcomes. The fact that the trend ceased in 1976 with no further increase in the gender ratio may be due to improving social conditions and greater effectiveness of healthcare programmes directed at women. As life expectancy is calculated on the basis of the conditional probability of death over specific intervals, the apparent discrepancy between the current gender ratios and life expectancy data may be due to higher female death rates before 1976. Copyright 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in ocean colour and chlorophyll concentration from 1889 to 2000, worldwide.

PubMed

Wernand, Marcel R; van der Woerd, Hendrik J; Gieskes, Winfried W C

2013-01-01

Marine primary productivity is an important agent in the global cycling of carbon dioxide, a major 'greenhouse gas', and variations in the concentration of the ocean's phytoplankton biomass can therefore explain trends in the global carbon budget. Since the launch of satellite-mounted sensors globe-wide monitoring of chlorophyll, a phytoplankton biomass proxy, became feasible. Just as satellites, the Forel-Ule (FU) scale record (a hardly explored database of ocean colour) has covered all seas and oceans--but already since 1889. We provide evidence that changes of ocean surface chlorophyll can be reconstructed with confidence from this record. The EcoLight radiative transfer numerical model indicates that the FU index is closely related to chlorophyll concentrations in open ocean regions. The most complete FU record is that of the North Atlantic in terms of coverage over space and in time; this dataset has been used to test the validity of colour changes that can be translated to chlorophyll. The FU and FU-derived chlorophyll data were analysed for monotonously increasing or decreasing trends with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, a method to establish the presence of a consistent trend. Our analysis has not revealed a globe-wide trend of increase or decrease in chlorophyll concentration during the past century; ocean regions have apparently responded differentially to changes in meteorological, hydrological and biological conditions at the surface, including potential long-term trends related to global warming. Since 1889, chlorophyll concentrations have decreased in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific; increased in the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean, the Chinese Sea, and in the seas west and north-west of Japan. This suggests that explanations of chlorophyll changes over long periods should focus on hydrographical and biological characteristics typical of single ocean regions, not on those of 'the' ocean.

An Evaluation on the Ratio of Plant to Animal Protein in the Diet of Juvenile Sea Cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus): Growth, Nutrient Digestibility and Nonspecific Immunity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Pengyun; Li, Xiaoyu; Xu, Yongping

2018-05-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of plant/animal (P/A) protein ratios (viz.1:4, 1:3, 1:2, 1:1,2:1, 3:1, 4:1) on growth performance, body composition, apparent digestibility of diets, and nonspecific immunity of juvenile sea cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus). Sea cucumbers were divided into 21 plastic tanks, and each tank was stocked with 15 individuals (initial weight: about 23.73 g). Each feed was allocated to three replicates of sea cucumbers. The feeding experiment lasted for 50 days. Results indicated that weight gain rate (WGR) and body wall weight (BWW) significantly increased as dietary ratio of P/A increased from 1:4 to 3:1, and then decreased significantly with further increase of this ratio (P < 0.05). The body wall coefficient (BWC) showed a similar tendency to WGR and BWW, but no significance was detected among dietary treatments (P > 0.05). The apparent digestibility of dry matter, protein and lipid increased with ratio of P/A increasing from 1:4 to 2:1 (P < 0.05), and then decreased with further increase of this ratio. Correspondingly, activities of trypsin and amylase were significantly increased as P/A increased from 1:4 to 2:1 (P < 0.05). The activities of SOD and CAT showed a similar trend with WGR, with the highest value observed in the ratio of 1:2 and 1:1, respectively. Results above showed that moderate or relatively higher ratio of P/A protein (1:1-3:1) significantly increased the growth performance, apparent digestibility, and nonspecific immunity of sea cucumber. This will contribute to improving the feed formulation for juvenile cucumbers.

Brain cancer incidence trends in relation to cellular telephone use in the United States.

PubMed

Inskip, Peter D; Hoover, Robert N; Devesa, Susan S

2010-11-01

The use of cellular telephones has grown explosively during the past two decades, and there are now more than 279 million wireless subscribers in the United States. If cellular phone use causes brain cancer, as some suggest, the potential public health implications could be considerable. One might expect the effects of such a prevalent exposure to be reflected in general population incidence rates, unless the induction period is very long or confined to very long-term users. To address this issue, we examined temporal trends in brain cancer incidence rates in the United States, using data collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Log-linear models were used to estimate the annual percent change in rates among whites. With the exception of the 20-29-year age group, the trends for 1992-2006 were downward or flat. Among those aged 20-29 years, there was a statistically significant increasing trend between 1992 and 2006 among females but not among males. The recent trend in 20-29-year-old women was driven by a rising incidence of frontal lobe cancers. No increases were apparent for temporal or parietal lobe cancers, or cancers of the cerebellum, which involve the parts of the brain that would be more highly exposed to radiofrequency radiation from cellular phones. Frontal lobe cancer rates also rose among 20-29-year-old males, but the increase began earlier than among females and before cell phone use was highly prevalent. Overall, these incidence data do not provide support to the view that cellular phone use causes brain cancer.

Model tropical Atlantic biases underpin diminished Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Shayne; Stuecker, Malte F.; Kajtar, Jules B.; England, Matthew H.; Collins, Mat

2018-06-01

Pacific trade winds have displayed unprecedented strengthening in recent decades1. This strengthening has been associated with east Pacific sea surface cooling2 and the early twenty-first-century slowdown in global surface warming2,3, amongst a host of other substantial impacts4-9. Although some climate models produce the timing of these recently observed trends10, they all fail to produce the trend magnitude2,11,12. This may in part be related to the apparent model underrepresentation of low-frequency Pacific Ocean variability and decadal wind trends2,11-13 or be due to a misrepresentation of a forced response1,14-16 or a combination of both. An increasingly prominent connection between the Pacific and Atlantic basins has been identified as a key driver of this strengthening of the Pacific trade winds12,17-20. Here we use targeted climate model experiments to show that combining the recent Atlantic warming trend with the typical climate model bias leads to a substantially underestimated response for the Pacific Ocean wind and surface temperature. The underestimation largely stems from a reduction and eastward shift of the atmospheric heating response to the tropical Atlantic warming trend. This result suggests that the recent Pacific trends and model decadal variability may be better captured by models with improved mean-state climatologies.

Population-level impact of white-nose syndrome on the endangered Indiana bat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; King, R. Andrew; McKann, Patrick C.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; Pruitt, Lori

2012-01-01

Establishing status and trend for an endangered species is critical to recovery, especially when it is faced with a nascent extinction agent. We calculated, with hierarchical log-linear change-point models, hibernaculum-level population trends between 1983 and 2009 for the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) now subjected to the fast-spreading fungal disease white-nose syndrome. We combined trends from 222 wintering populations before and after onset of the disease to determine trend for clusters of interacting wintering populations, recovery units, and the species. Before onset of the disease, a west-to-east gradient in trends existed, with westernmost populations declining and easternmost populations increasing in abundance. The species as a whole, however, was stationary between 1983 and 2005 (-0.5% mean annual change; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.8, +1.8%). Estimated mean population size in 2009 was 377,124 bats (195,398-957,348), with large variance apparently caused by white-nose syndrome. With the onset of white-nose syndrome (2006-2009), the species exhibited a 10.3% annual decline (95% CI = -21.1, +2.0%). White-nose syndrome is having an appreciable influence on the status and trends of Indiana bat populations, stalling and in some cases reversing population gains made in recent years.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knott, D.

Floating production system (FPS) technology has come of age in the North Sea. That's apparent in plans to use FPSs to tap two of Northwest Europe's largest offshore oil discoveries in the last 10 years. First North Sea oil production with a floater involved a converted semisubmersible drilling rig. Floaters have been in use for small field development projects ever since. Now, industry's rising interest in FPSs reflects two trends: As the North Sea matures, discoveries are likely to be in deeper, more remote locations; and Operators increasingly are under pressure to slash costs. The paper discusses UK trends, Norway'smore » needs, the Norne field, Norne contract, discovery of oil west of the Shetland Islands, Shell-Esso plans, the UK Machar field test, the UK Fife field, and prospects for other potential floater developments.« less

CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

PubMed

Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

2015-06-26

Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Long-term trends in Anopheles gambiae insecticide resistance in Côte d'Ivoire.

PubMed

Edi, Constant A V; Koudou, Benjamin G; Bellai, Louise; Adja, Akre M; Chouaibou, Mouhamadou; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Barry, Sarah J E; Johnson, Paul C D; Müller, Pie; Dongus, Stefan; N'Goran, Eliezer K; Ranson, Hilary; Weetman, David

2014-11-28

Malaria control is heavily dependent on the use of insecticides that target adult mosquito vectors via insecticide treated nets (ITNs) or indoor residual spraying (IRS). Four classes of insecticide are approved for IRS but only pyrethroids are available for ITNs. The rapid rise in insecticide resistance in African malaria vectors has raised alarms about the sustainability of existing malaria control activities. This problem might be particularly acute in Côte d'Ivoire where resistance to all four insecticide classes has recently been recorded. Here we investigate temporal trends in insecticide resistance across the ecological zones of Côte d'Ivoire to determine whether apparent pan-African patterns of increasing resistance are detectable and consistent across insecticides and areas. We combined data on insecticide resistance from a literature review, and bioassays conducted on field-caught Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes for the four WHO-approved insecticide classes for ITN/IRS. The data were then mapped using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the IR mapper tool to provide spatial and temporal distribution data on insecticide resistance in An. gambiae sensu lato from Côte d'Ivoire between 1993 and 2014. Bioassay mortality decreased over time for all insecticide classes, though with significant spatiotemporal variation, such that stronger declines were observed in the southern ecological zone for DDT and pyrethroids than in the central zone, but with an apparently opposite effect for the carbamate and organophosphate. Variation in relative abundance of the molecular forms, coupled with dramatic increase in kdr 1014F frequency in M forms (An. coluzzii) seems likely to be a contributory factor to these patterns. Although records of resistance across insecticide classes have become more common, the number of classes tested in studies has also increased, precluding a conclusion that multiple resistance has also increased. Our analyses attempted synthesis of 22 years of bioassay data from Côte d'Ivoire, and despite a number of caveats and potentially confounding variables, suggest significant but spatially-variable temporal trends in insecticide resistance. In the light of such spatio-temporal dynamics, regular, systematic and spatially-expanded monitoring is warranted to provide accurate information on insecticide resistance for control programme management.

Trends in hydrometeorological conditions and stream water organic carbon in boreal forested catchments.

PubMed

Sarkkola, Sakari; Koivusalo, Harri; Laurén, Ari; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Mattsson, Tuija; Palviainen, Marjo; Piirainen, Sirpa; Starr, Mike; Finér, Leena

2009-12-15

Temporal trends in stream water total organic carbon (TOC) concentration and export were studied in 8 forested headwater catchments situated in eastern Finland. The Seasonal Kendall test was conducted to identify the trends and a mixed model regression analysis was used to describe how catchment characteristics and hydrometeorological variables (e.g. precipitation, air and stream water temperatures, and atmospheric deposition) related to the variation in the concentration and export of stream water TOC. The 8 catchments varied in size from 29 to 494 ha and in the proportion of peatland they contained, from 8 to 70%. Runoff and TOC concentration were monitored for 15-29 years (1979-2006). Trends and variation in TOC levels were analysed from annual and seasonal time series. Mean annual TOC concentration increased significantly in seven of the eight catchments. The trends were the strongest in spring and most apparent during the last decade of the study period. The slopes of the trends were generally smaller than the variation in TOC concentration between years and seasons and between catchments. The annual TOC export showed no clear trends and values were largely determined by the temporal variability in runoff. Annual runoff showed a decreasing trend in two of the eight catchments. Mean annual air and stream water temperatures showed increasing trends, most clearly seen in the summer and autumn series. According to our modeling results, stream water temperature, precipitation and peatland percentage were the most important variables explaining annual and most seasonal TOC concentrations. The atmospheric deposition of SO4, NH4, and NO3 decreased significantly over the study period, but no significant link with TOC concentration was found. Precipitation was the main hydrometeorological driver of the TOC export. We concluded that stream water TOC concentrations and exports are mainly driven by catchment characteristics and hydrometeorological factors rather than trends in atmospheric acid deposition.

Trends in upper gastrointestinal diagnosis over four decades in Lusaka, Zambia: a retrospective analysis of endoscopic findings.

PubMed

Kayamba, Violet; Sinkala, Edford; Mwanamakondo, Stayner; Soko, Rose; Kawimbe, Boniface; Amadi, Beatrice; Zulu, Isaac; Nzaisenga, Jean-Baptiste; Banda, Themba; Mumbwe, Chipasha; Phiri, Evans; Munkonge, Philip; Kelly, Paul

2015-10-06

There a shortage of robust information about profiles of gastrointestinal disease in sub-Saharan Africa. The endoscopy unit of the University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka has been running without interruption since 1977 and this 38-year record is largely intact. We report an analysis of endoscopic findings over this period. Written endoscopy records from 29th September 1977 to 16th December 2014 were recovered, computerised, coded by two experienced endoscopists and analysed. Temporal trends were analysed using tables, graphs, and unconditional logistic regression, with age, sex of patient, decade, and endoscopist as independent variables to adjust for inter-observer variation. Sixteen thousand nine hundred fifty-three records were identified and analysed. Diagnosis of gastric ulcer rose by 22 %, and that of duodenal ulcer fell by 14 % per decade. Endoscopically diagnosed oesophageal cancer increased by 32 % per decade, but gastric cancer rose only in patients under 60 years of age (21 % per decade). Oesophageal varices were the commonest finding in patients presenting with haematemesis, increasing by 14 % per decade in that patient group. Two HIV-related diagnoses, oesophageal candidiasis and Kaposi's sarcoma, rose from almost zero to very high levels in the 1990s but fell substantially after 2005 when anti-retroviral therapy became widely available. This useful dataset suggests that there are important trends in some endoscopic findings over four decades. These trends are not explained by inter-observer variation. Reasons for the divergent trends in incidence of peptic ulceration and apparent trends in diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal cancers merit further exploration.

How do trends in mortality inequalities by deprivation and education in Scotland and England & Wales compare? A repeat cross-sectional study.

PubMed

McCartney, Gerry; Popham, Frank; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Walsh, David; Schofield, Lauren

2017-07-21

To compare the trends in mortality inequalities by educational attainment with trends using area deprivation. Scotland and England & Wales (E&W). All people resident in Scotland and E&W between 1981 and 2011 aged 35-79 years. Absolute inequalities (measured using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII)) and relative inequalities (measured using the Relative Index of Inequality (RII)) in all-cause mortality. Relative inequalities in mortality by area deprivation have consistently increased for men and women in Scotland and E&W between 1981-1983 and 2010-2012. Absolute inequalities increased for men and women in Scotland, and for women in E&W, between 1981-1983 and 2000-2002 before subsequently falling. For men in E&W, absolute inequalities were more stable until 2000-2002 before a subsequent decline. Both absolute and relative inequalities were consistently higher in men and in Scotland. These trends contrast markedly with the reported declines in mortality inequalities by educational attainment and apparent improvement of Scotland's inequalities with those in E&W. Trends in health inequalities differ when assessed using different measures of socioeconomic status, reflecting either genuinely variable trends in relation to different aspects of social stratification or varying error or bias. There are particular issues with the educational attainment data in Great Britain prior to 2001 that make these education-based estimates less certain. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Macroevolutionary trends of atomic composition and related functional group proportion in eukaryotic and prokaryotic proteins.

PubMed

Zhang, Yu-Juan; Yang, Chun-Lin; Hao, You-Jin; Li, Ying; Chen, Bin; Wen, Jian-Fan

2014-01-25

To fully explore the trends of atomic composition during the macroevolution from prokaryote to eukaryote, five atoms (oxygen, sulfur, nitrogen, carbon, hydrogen) and related functional groups in prokaryotic and eukaryotic proteins were surveyed and compared. Genome-wide analysis showed that eukaryotic proteins have more oxygen, sulfur and nitrogen atoms than prokaryotes do. Clusters of Orthologous Groups (COG) analysis revealed that oxygen, sulfur, carbon and hydrogen frequencies are higher in eukaryotic proteins than in their prokaryotic orthologs. Furthermore, functional group analysis demonstrated that eukaryotic proteins tend to have higher proportions of sulfhydryl, hydroxyl and acylamino, but lower of sulfide and carboxyl. Taken together, an apparent trend of increase was observed for oxygen and sulfur atoms in the macroevolution; the variation of oxygen and sulfur compositions and their related functional groups in macroevolution made eukaryotic proteins carry more useful functional groups. These results will be helpful for better understanding the functional significances of atomic composition evolution. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reduction in myocardial infarction admissions in Liverpool after the smoking ban: potential socioeconomic implications for policymaking

PubMed Central

Liu, Andrew; Guzman Castillo, Maria; Capewell, Simon; Lucy, John; O'Flaherty, Martin

2013-01-01

Objectives To analyse the trends and trend changes in myocardial infraction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) admissions, to investigate the effects of the 2007 smoke-free legislation on these trends, and to consider the policy implications of any findings. Design setting Liverpool (city), UK. Participants Hospital episode statistics data on all 56 995 admissions for CHD in Liverpool between 2004 and 2012 (International Classification of Diseases codes I20–I25 coded as an admission diagnosis within the defined dates). Primary and secondary outcome measures Trend gradient and change points (by trend regressions analysis) in age-standardised MI admissions in Liverpool between 2004 and 2012; by sex and by socioeconomic status. Secondary analysis on CHD admissions. Results A significant and sustained reduction was seen in MI admissions in Liverpool beginning within 1 year of the smoking ban. Comparing 2005/2006 and 2010/2011, the age-adjusted rates for MI admissions fell by 42% (39–45%) (41.6% in men and by 42.6% in women). Trend analysis shows that this is significantly greater than the background trend of decreasing admissions. These reductions appeared consistent across all socioeconomic groups. Interestingly, admission rates for total CHD (including mild to severe angina) increased by 10% (8–12%). Conclusions A dramatic reduction in MI admissions in Liverpool has been observed coinciding with the smoking ban in 2007. Furthermore, the benefits were apparent across the socioeconomic spectrum. Health inequalities were not affected and may even have been reduced. The rapid effects observed with this top-down, environmental policy may further increase its value to policymakers. PMID:24282240

Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-02-01

The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly `no trend' results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981-2016 rather than for 1956-2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.

Seeing the elephant: Importance of spatial and temporal coverage in a large-scale volunteer-based program to monitor horseshoe crabs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, D.R.; Michels, S.F.

2006-01-01

As in John Godfrey Saxe's poem about six blind men and an elephant, conclusions drawn from a monitoring program depend critically on where and when observations are made. We examined results from the Delaware Bay horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) spawning survey to evaluate the effect of spatial and temporal coverage on conclusions about spawning activity. Declines due to previously unregulated harvest triggered an increase in monitoring. Although we detected no apparent trend in bay-wide spawning activity for 1999-2005, conclusions would have differed depending on where and when observations were made. For example, spawning activity in May during the shorebird stopover was a poor predictor of spawning activity over the whole season. Observations made only during peak spawning incorrectly suggested that spawning activity increased during 2001-2005. Trends at one place in the bay were not indicative of trends for the whole bay. Many natural resource issues begin like the blind men and the elephant with dispute partially caused by an incomplete picture of the resource. As sufficient time and funds are directed to gathering necessary data using effective sampling designs, a more complete picture can emerge.

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006.

PubMed

Rastam, Samer; Al Ali, Radwan; Maziak, Wasim; Mzayek, Fawaz; Fouad, Fouad M; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon

2012-09-09

Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD.

Prospective study of plasma homocysteine level and risk of age-related macular degeneration in women.

PubMed

Christen, William G; Cook, Nancy R; Ridker, Paul M; Buring, Julie E

2015-04-01

Prospective data to examine the association of homocysteine with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) are limited. We examined the prospective relation of plasma homocysteine level and AMD in a large cohort of apparently healthy women. We evaluated the relationship between baseline levels of plasma homocysteine and incident AMD among 27,479 female health professionals aged 40 years or older. Main outcome measures were total AMD, defined as self-report documented by medical record evidence of an initial diagnosis after randomization, and visually significant AMD, defined as confirmed incident AMD with visual acuity 20/30 or worse attributable to this condition. During an average 10 years of follow-up, a total of 452 cases of AMD, including 182 cases of visually significant AMD, were documented. Women in the highest versus lowest quartile of plasma homocysteine had modestly, but statistically non-significant, increased risks of total AMD (hazard ratio, HR, 1.24, 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.95-1.63; p for trend 0.07) and visually significant AMD (HR 1.41, 95% CI 0.92-2.17; p for trend 0.052) in age- and treatment-adjusted analyses. These prospective data from a large cohort of apparently healthy women do not support a strong role for homocysteine in AMD occurrence.

Temporal dynamics of groundwater-dissolved inorganic carbon beneath a drought-affected braided stream: Platte River case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boerner, Audrey R.; Gates, John B.

2015-05-01

Impacts of environmental changes on groundwater carbon cycling are poorly understood despite their potentially high relevance to terrestrial carbon budgets. This study focuses on streambed groundwater chemistry during a period of drought-induced river drying and consequent disconnection between surface water and groundwater. Shallow groundwater underlying vegetated and bare portions of a braided streambed in the Platte River (Nebraska, USA) was monitored during drought conditions in summer 2012. Water temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon (dominated by HCO3-) in streambed groundwater were correlated over a 3 month period coinciding with a decline in river discharge from 35 to 0 m3 s-1. Physical, chemical, and isotopic parameters were monitored to investigate mechanisms affecting the HCO3- trend. Equilibrium thermodynamic modeling suggests that an increase of pCO2 near the water table, coupled with carbonate mineral weathering, can explain the trend. Stronger temporal trends in Ca2+ and Mg2+ compared to Cl- are consistent with carbonate mineral reequilibria rather than evaporative concentration as the primary mechanism of the increased HCO3-. Stable isotope trends are not apparent, providing further evidence of thermodynamic controls rather than evaporation from the water table. A combination of increased temperature and O2 in the dewatered portion of the streambed is the most likely driver of increased pCO2 near the water table. Results of this study highlight potential linkages between surface environmental changes and groundwater chemistry and underscore the need for high-resolution chemical monitoring of alluvial groundwater in order to identify environmental change impacts.

Trends in the Health Status of Older Manitobans, 1985 to 1999

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Menec, Verena H.; Lix, Lisa; MacWilliam, Leonard R.

2005-01-01

Trends in the health status of the entire senior population aged 65 years or older in Manitoba were examined over a 14-year period (1985-1999) using administrative data (about 150,000 individuals). Significant health gains were apparent for a number of important indicators, including acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, and hip fractures,…

Diabetes mellitus, other medical conditions and familial history of cancer as risk factors for pancreatic cancer

PubMed Central

Silverman, D T; Schiffman, M; Everhart, J; Goldstein, A; Lillemoe, K D; Swanson, G M; Schwartz, A G; Brown, L M; Greenberg, R S; Schoenberg, J B; Pottern, L M; Hoover, R N; Fraumeni, J F

1999-01-01

In a population-based case-control study of pancreatic cancer conducted in three areas of the USA, 484 cases and 2099 controls were interviewed to evaluate the aetiologic role of several medical conditions/interventions, including diabetes mellitus, cholecystectomy, ulcer/gastrectomy and allergic states. We also evaluated risk associated with family history of cancer. Our findings support previous studies indicating that diabetes is a risk factor for pancreatic cancer, as well as a possible complication of the tumour. A significant positive trend in risk with increasing years prior to diagnosis of pancreatic cancer was apparent (P-value for test of trend = 0.016), with diabetics diagnosed at least 10 years prior to diagnosis having a significant 50% increased risk. Those treated with insulin had risks similar to those not treated with insulin (odds ratio (OR) = 1.6 and 1.5 respectively), and no trend in risk was associated with increasing duration of insulin treatment. Cholecystectomy also appeared to be a risk factor, as well as a consequence of the malignancy. Subjects with a cholecystectomy at least 20 years prior to the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer experienced a 70% increased risk, which was marginally significant. In contrast, subjects with a history of duodenal or gastric ulcer had little or no elevated risk (OR = 1.2; confidence interval = 0.9–1.6). Those treated by gastrectomy had the same risk as those not receiving surgery, providing little support for the hypothesis that gastrectomy is a risk factor for pancreatic cancer. A significant 40% reduced risk was associated with hay fever, a non-significant 50% decreased risk with allergies to animals, and a non-significant 40% reduced risk with allergies to dust/moulds. These associations, however, may be due to chance since no risk reductions were apparent for asthma or several other types of allergies. In addition, we observed significantly increased risks for subjects reporting a first-degree relative with cancers of the pancreas (OR = 3.2), colon (OR = 1.7) or ovary (OR = 5.3) and non-significantly increased risks for cancers of the endometrium (OR = 1.5) or breast (OR = 1.3). The pattern is consistent with the familial predisposition reported for pancreatic cancer and with the array of tumours associated with hereditary non-polyposis colon cancer. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaign PMID:10468306

Trends in frequency of type 2 diabetes in Mexico and its relationship to dietary patterns and contextual factors.

PubMed

Soto-Estrada, Guadalupe; Moreno Altamirano, Laura; García-García, Juan José; Ochoa Moreno, Iván; Silberman, Martín

To analyse the evolution of the frequency of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and its relationship to eating patterns in Mexico from 1961 to 2013, and the Gini coefficient, Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Mexico ranked sixth in world prevalence of diabetes in 2015 with an estimated 11.4 million Mexicans affected. Using data from the Balance Sheets Food published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the means of apparent food consumption (kcal/person/day) were grouped by decades. Data for mortality rate for diabetes were obtained from 1990 until 2015. Spearman's correlation coefficient was calculated between the diabetes mellitus mortality rate and all food groups. Pearson's correlation explored the relationship between socio economic indicators and the prevalence of T2D diabetes. The mortality rate for T2D has increased over the last decades. An increase of 647.9kcal/person/day in apparent food consumption was observed. Cereal and legume consumption decreased, while apparent sugar, animal food and animal fat and vegetable oil consumption increased substantially. HDI and GDP showed a directly proportional relationship to diabetes. Spearman's correlation coefficient was statistically significant only for sugar. The Gini coefficient suggests that in lower inequalities there is an increased frequency of diabetes. The increase in the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes was constant during the study period, which coincides with the increase in energy density of Mexican eating patterns from 1961 to 2013. The higher the Gini coefficient, HDI and GDP, the higher the mortality observed for diabetes. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia in developing countries*

PubMed Central

De Armas Rodríguez, Y.; Wissmann, G.; Müller, A.L.; Pederiva, M.A.; Brum, M.C.; Brackmann, R.L.; Capó De Paz, V.; Calderón, E.J.

2011-01-01

Pneumocystis pneumonia (PcP) is a serious fungal infection among immunocompromised patients. In developed countries, the epidemiology and clinical spectrum of PcP have been clearly defined and well documented. However, in most developing countries, relatively little is known about the prevalence of pneumocystosis. Several articles covering African, Asian and American countries were reviewed in the present study. PcP was identified as a frequent opportunistic infection in AIDS patients from different geographic regions. A trend to an increasing rate of PcP was apparent in developing countries from 2002 to 2010. PMID:21894262

Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation 4. Historical surface-water quality for the Red River Valley, New Mexico, 1965 to 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maest, Ann S.; Nordstrom, D. Kirk; LoVetere, Sara H.

2004-01-01

Historical water-quality samples collected from the Red River over the past 35 years were compiled, reviewed for quality, and evaluated to determine influences on water quality over time. Hydrologic conditions in the Red River were found to have a major effect on water quality. The lowest sulfate concentrations were associated with the highest flow events, especially peak, rising limb, and falling limb conditions. The highest sulfate concentrations were associated with the early part of the rising limb of summer thunderstorm events and early snowmelt runoff, transient events that can be difficult to capture as part of planned sampling programs but were observed in some of the data. The first increase in flows in the spring, or during summer thunderstorm events, causes a flushing of sulfide oxidation products from scars and mine-disturbed areas to the Red River before being diluted by rising river waters. A trend of increasing sulfate concentrations and loads over long time periods also was noted at the Questa Ranger Station gage on the Red River, possibly related to mining activities, because the same trend is not apparent for concentrations upstream. This trend was only apparent when the dynamic events of snowmelt and summer rainstorms were eliminated and only low-flow concentrations were considered. An increase in sulfate concentrations and loads over time was not seen at locations upstream from the Molycorp, Inc., molybdenum mine and downstream from scar areas. Sulfate concentrations and loads and zinc concentrations downstream from the mine were uniformly higher, and alkalinity values were consistently lower, than those upstream from the mine, suggesting that additional sources of sulfate, zinc, and acidity enter the river in the vicinity of the mine. During storm events, alkalinity values decreased both upstream and downstream of the mine, indicating that natural sources, most likely scar areas, can cause short-term changes in the buffering capacity of the Red River. The major-element water chemistry of the Red River is controlled by dissolution of calcite and gypsum and the oxidation of pyrite, and the river is generally not well buffered with respect to pH. During higher-flow periods, Red River water was diluted by calcium-carbonate waters, most likely from unmineralized Red River tributaries and areas upstream from scars. The effect of pyrite oxidation on Red River water chemistry was more pronounced after the early 1980's. Elevated zinc concentrations were most apparent during summer thunderstorm and rising limb times, which also were associated with a decrease in alkalinity and an increase in sulfate concentrations and conductivity. The water-quality results demonstrate that it is critical to consider hydrologic conditions when interpreting water chemistry in naturally mineralized or mined drainages.

Total ozone trend significance from space time variability of daily Dobson data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilcox, R. W.

1981-01-01

Estimates of standard errors of total ozone time and area means, as derived from ozone's natural temporal and spatial variability and autocorrelation in middle latitudes determined from daily Dobson data are presented. Assessing the significance of apparent total ozone trends is equivalent to assessing the standard error of the means. Standard errors of time averages depend on the temporal variability and correlation of the averaged parameter. Trend detectability is discussed, both for the present network and for satellite measurements.

The vitamin D status of the US population from 1988 to 2010 using standardized serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D shows recent modest increases.

PubMed

Schleicher, Rosemary L; Sternberg, Maya R; Lacher, David A; Sempos, Christopher T; Looker, Anne C; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon A; Yetley, Elizabeth A; Chaudhary-Webb, Madhulika; Maw, Khin L; Pfeiffer, Christine M; Johnson, Clifford L

2016-08-01

Temporal trends in the US population's vitamin D status have been uncertain because of nonstandardized serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] measurements. To accurately assess vitamin D status trends among those aged ≥12 y, we used data from the cross-sectional NHANESs. A liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method for measuring 25(OH)D (sum of 25-hydroxyvitamin D2 and 25-hydroxyvitamin D3), calibrated to standard reference materials, was used to predict LC-MS/MS-equivalent concentrations from radioimmunoassay data (1988-2006 surveys; n = 38,700) and to measure LC-MS/MS concentrations (2007-2010 surveys; n = 12,446). Weighted arithmetic means and the prevalence of 25(OH)D above or below cutoff concentrations were calculated to evaluate long-term trends. Overall, mean predicted 25(OH)D showed no time trend from 1988 to 2006, but during 2007-2010 the mean measured 25(OH)D was 5-6 nmol/L higher. Those groups who showed the largest 25(OH)D increases (7-11 nmol/L) were older, female, non-Hispanic white, and vitamin D supplement users. During 1988-2010, the proportions of persons with 25(OH)D <40 nmol/L were 14-18% (overall), 46-60% (non-Hispanic blacks), 21-28% (Mexican Americans), and 6-10% (non-Hispanic whites). An accurate method for measuring 25(OH)D showed stable mean concentrations in the US population (1988-2006) and recent modest increases (2007-2010). Although it is unclear to what extent supplement usage compared with different laboratory methods explain the increases in 25(OH)D, the use of higher vitamin D supplement dosages coincided with the increase. Marked race-ethnic differences in 25(OH)D concentrations were apparent. These data provide the first standardized information about temporal trends in the vitamin D status of the US population. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

American Exceptionalism: Population Trends and Flight Initiation Distances in Birds from Three Continents

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders Pape; Samia, Diogo S. M.; Weston, Mike A.; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Blumstein, Daniel T.

2014-01-01

Background All organisms may be affected by humans' increasing impact on Earth, but there are many potential drivers of population trends and the relative importance of each remains largely unknown. The causes of spatial patterns in population trends and their relationship with animal responses to human proximity are even less known. Methodology/Principal Finding We investigated the relationship between population trends of 193 species of bird in North America, Australia and Europe and flight initiation distance (FID); the distance at which birds take flight when approached by a human. While there is an expected negative relationship between population trend and FID in Australia and Europe, we found the inverse relationship for North American birds; thus FID cannot be used as a universal predictor of vulnerability of birds. However, the analysis of the joint explanatory ability of multiple drivers (farmland breeding habitat, pole-most breeding latitude, migratory habit, FID) effects on population status replicated previously reported strong effects of farmland breeding habitat (an effect apparently driven mostly by European birds), as well as strong effects of FID, body size, migratory habit and continent. Farmland birds are generally declining. Conclusions/Significance Flight initiation distance is related to population trends in a way that differs among continents opening new research possibilities concerning the causes of geographic differences in patterns of anti-predator behavior. PMID:25226165

Long-term effect of the insoluble thread-lifting technique.

PubMed

Fukaya, Mototsugu

2017-01-01

Although the thread-lifting technique for sagging faces has become more common and popular, medical literature evaluating its effects is scarce. Studies on its long-term prognosis are particularly uncommon. One hundred individuals who had previously undergone insoluble thread-lifting were retrospectively investigated. Photos in frontal and oblique views from the first and last visits were evaluated by six female individuals by guessing the patients' ages. The mean guessed age was defined as the apparent age, and the difference between the real and apparent ages was defined as the youth value. The difference between the youth values before and after the thread-lift was defined as the rejuvenation effect and analyzed in relation to the time since the operation, the number of threads used and the number of thread-lift operations performed. The rejuvenation effect decreased over the first year after the operation, but showed an increasing trend thereafter. The rejuvenation effect increased with the number of threads used and the number of thread-lift operations performed. The insoluble thread-lifting technique appears to be associated with both early and late effects. The rejuvenation effect appeared to decrease during the first year, but increased thereafter. A multicenter trial is necessary to confirm these findings.

Modification of the Selectivity Properties of Tubular Ceramic Membranes after Alkaline Treatment

PubMed Central

Dutournié, Patrick; Limousy, Lionel; Anquetil, Jérôme

2017-01-01

This work focuses on the selectivity modification of ceramic membranes after a mild alkaline treatment. Filtration of pure salt-water solutions was carried out with commercial titania membranes before and after the treatment. After treatment, the rejection of NaF significantly decreased, while the rejection of NaCl and NaBr increased. Additionally, NaI and Na2SO4 remained close to zero. Pore size and electrical charge being almost unchanged, only significant modifications in the dielectric effects can explain this modification of selectivity. Therefore, the surface chemistry and the interaction (nature and magnitude) with the solvent and with the species present in the solution appear to be modified by the alkaline treatment. This trend is also illustrated by discussing the electric and the dielectric properties that were numerically identified before and after treatment. The alkaline treatment significantly decreased the apparent dielectric constant of NaCl-water solution in the pore, highlighting the rejection of sodium chloride. Contrariwise, the modification of the surface chemistry increased the apparent dielectric constant of NaF-water solution by promoting fluoride transmission. PMID:29160802

Modification of the Selectivity Properties of Tubular Ceramic Membranes after Alkaline Treatment.

PubMed

Dutournié, Patrick; Limousy, Lionel; Anquetil, Jérôme; Déon, Sébastien

2017-11-21

This work focuses on the selectivity modification of ceramic membranes after a mild alkaline treatment. Filtration of pure salt-water solutions was carried out with commercial titania membranes before and after the treatment. After treatment, the rejection of NaF significantly decreased, while the rejection of NaCl and NaBr increased. Additionally, NaI and Na₂SO₄ remained close to zero. Pore size and electrical charge being almost unchanged, only significant modifications in the dielectric effects can explain this modification of selectivity. Therefore, the surface chemistry and the interaction (nature and magnitude) with the solvent and with the species present in the solution appear to be modified by the alkaline treatment. This trend is also illustrated by discussing the electric and the dielectric properties that were numerically identified before and after treatment. The alkaline treatment significantly decreased the apparent dielectric constant of NaCl-water solution in the pore, highlighting the rejection of sodium chloride. Contrariwise, the modification of the surface chemistry increased the apparent dielectric constant of NaF-water solution by promoting fluoride transmission.

Phase shifts and the role of herbivory in the resilience of coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledlie, M. H.; Graham, N. A. J.; Bythell, J. C.; Wilson, S. K.; Jennings, S.; Polunin, N. V. C.; Hardcastle, J.

2007-09-01

Cousin Island marine reserve (Seychelles) has been an effectively protected no-take marine protected area (MPA) since 1968 and was shown in 1994 to support a healthy herbivorous fish assemblage. In 1998 Cousin Island reefs suffered extensive coral mortality following a coral bleaching event, and a phase shift from coral to algal dominance ensued. By 2005 mean coral cover was <1%, structural complexity had fallen and there had been a substantial increase in macroalgal cover, up to 40% in some areas. No clear trends were apparent in the overall numerical abundance and biomass of herbivorous fishes between 1994 and 2005, although smaller individuals became relatively scarce, most likely due to the loss of reef structure. Analysis of the feeding habits of six abundant and representative herbivorous fish species around Cousin Island in 2006 demonstrated that epilithic algae were the preferred food resource of all species and that macroalgae were avoided. Given the current dominance of macroalgae and the apparent absence of macroalgal consumers, it is suggested that the increasing abundance of macroalgae is reducing the probability of the system reverting to a coral dominated state.

Time trends (1983-1999) for organochlorines and polybrominated diphenyl ethers in rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) from Lakes Michigan, Huron and Superior, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chernyak, Sergei M.; Rice, Clifford P.; Quintal, Richard T.; Begnoche, Linda J.; Hickey, James P.; Vinyard, Bryan T.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Geological Service Great Lakes Science Center has archived rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) collected from the early 1980s to the present. These fish were collected to provide time- and site-dependent contaminant residue data needed by researchers and managers to fill critical data gaps regarding trends and behavior of persistent organic contaminants in the Great Lakes ecosystem. In the present study, data are presented for concentrations of several organochlorine (OC) contaminants in the archived smelt, including DDT, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), toxaphene, and chlordanes in Lakes Michigan and Huron (MI, USA) and in Lake Superior (MN, USA). The trends for all the OCs were declining as a first-order decay over the sampled time series (1983/1985–1993/1999) with the exception of toxaphene in Lake Superior and PCBs at the Charlevoix/Little Traverse Bay site in Lake Michigan. Concentration of the emerging contaminant, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), also was traced from its apparent entry into this ecosystem in approximately 1980 until 1999. Time trends for the PBDEs were increasing exponentially at all sites, with concentration-doubling times varying from 1.58 to 2.94 years.

Epidemiology of melanoma: is it still epidemic? What is the role of the sun, sunbeds, Vit D, betablocks, and others?

PubMed

De Giorgi, Vincenzo; Gori, Alessia; Grazzini, Marta; Rossari, Susanna; Oranges, Teresa; Longo, Anna Sara; Lotti, Torello; Gandini, Sara

2012-01-01

The incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma is continuously increasing worldwide, but only minimal changes in mortality have been observed. This phenomenon has brought into question whether this increased incidence reflects a true or apparent melanoma epidemic. The most recent data suggest that this epidemiological trend may be explained by the existence of a certain degree of melanoma overdiagnosis, especially of thin lesions, which probably would never progress to advanced disease if left untreated. However, acute sun exposure and widespread use of sunbeds may also justify the increase in melanoma incidence. Recently, both vitamin D and beta-blocker use seem to play a beneficial role in melanoma progression. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Decadal and seasonal trends of nutrient concentration and export from highly managed coastal catchments.

PubMed

Wan, Yongshan; Wan, Lei; Li, Yuncong; Doering, Peter

2017-05-15

Understanding anthropogenic and hydro-climatic influences on nutrient concentrations and export from highly managed catchments often necessitates trend detection using long-term monitoring data. This study analyzed the temporal trend (1979-2014) of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and export from four adjacent coastal basins in south Florida where land and water resources are highly managed through an intricate canal network. The method of integrated seasonal-trend decomposition using LOESS (LOcally weighted regrESSion) was employed for trend detection. The results indicated that long-term trends in TN and TP concentrations (increasing/decreasing) varied with basins and nutrient species, reflecting the influence of basin specific land and water management practices. These long-term trends were intervened by short-term highs driven by high rainfall and discharges and lows associated with regional droughts. Seasonal variations in TP were more apparent than for TN. Nutrient export exhibited a chemostatic behavior for TN from all the basins, largely due to the biogenic nature of organic N associated with the ubiquity of organic materials in the managed canal network. Varying degrees of chemodynamic export was present for TP, reflecting complex biogeochemical responses to the legacy of long-term fertilization, low soil P holding capacity, and intensive stormwater management. The anthropogenic and hydro-climatic influences on nutrient concentration and export behavior had great implications in nutrient loading abatement strategies for aquatic ecosystem restoration of the downstream receiving waterbody. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Climate driven variability and detectability of temporal trends in low flow indicators for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Julia; Murphy, Conor; Harrigan, Shaun

2013-04-01

Observational data from hydrological monitoring programs plays an important role in informing decision makers of changes in key hydrological variables. To analyse how changes in climate influence stream flow, undisturbed river basins with near-natural conditions limited from human influences are needed. This study analyses low flow indicators derived from observations from the Irish Reference Network. Within the trend analysis approach the influence of individual years or sub-periods on the detected trend are analysed using sequential trend tests on all possible periods (of at least 10 years in length) by varying the start and end dates of records for various indicators. Results from this study highlight that the current standard approach using fixed periods to determine long term trends is not appropriate as statistical significance and direction of trends from short term records do not persist continuously over entire record and can be heavily influenced by extremes within the record. The importance of longer records in contextualising short term trends derived from fixed-periods influenced by natural annual, inter-annual and multi-decadal variability is highlighted. Due to the low signal (trend) to noise (variability) ratio, the apparent trends derived from the low flow indicators cannot be used as confident guides to inform future water resources planning and decision making on climate change. Infact, some derived trends contradict expected climate change impacts and even small changes in study design can change the outcomes to a high degree. Therefore it is important not only to evaluate the magnitude of trends derived from monitoring data but also when a trend of a certain magnitude in a given indicator will be detectable to inform decision making or what changes might be required to detect trends for a certain significance level. In this study, the influence of observed variance in the monitoring records on the expected detection times for trends with a fixed magnitude are presented. Depending on the indicator selected, the sample variance and trend magnitude very different detection time estimates are obtained and in most cases not within the time required for anticipatory adaptation in the water resources sector. Additionally, the minimum changes in low flow indicators required to be detectable are large and changes are unlikely to be statistically detectable for many years. This means that water management and planning for anticipated future climatic changes will be required to take place without these changes being formally statistically detectable.Waiting for these trends to become formally detectable with the traditional statistical methods might not be an option for water resources management. Within the monitoring network, a considerable difference is apparent between stations in terms of detection times and changes required for detection. The existence of flow monitoring stations showing short detection times for specific indicators confirms the potential for identifying stations that may be first responders to climate induced changes. Identifying sentinel stations can increase the ability to more effectively optimise the deployment of resources for monitoring the influences of climatic change in a hydrometric reference network.

Assessing wave climate trends in the Bay of Biscay through an intercomparison of wave hindcasts and reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, F.; Lecacheux, S.; Idier, D.; Charles, E.

2014-09-01

The Bay of Biscay, located in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, is exposed to energetic waves coming from the open ocean that have crucial effects on the coast. Knowledge of the wave climate and trends in this region are critical to better understand the last decade's evolution of coastal hazards and morphology and to anticipate their potential future changes. This study aims to characterize the long-term trends of the present wave climate over the second half of the twentieth century in the Bay of Biscay through a robust and homogeneous intercomparison of five-wave datasets (Corrected ERA-40 (C-ERA-40), ECMWF Reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim), Bay Of Biscay Wave Atlas (BOBWA-10kH), ANEMOC, and Bertin and Dodet 2010)). The comparison of the quality of the datasets against offshore and nearshore measurements reveals that at offshore locations, global reanalyses slightly underestimate wave heights, while regional hindcasts overestimate wave heights, especially for the highest quantiles. At coastal locations, BOBWA-10kH is the dataset that compares the best with observations. Concerning long time-scale features, the comparison highlights that the main significant trends are similarly present in the five datasets, especially during summer for which there is an increase of significant wave heights and mean wave periods (up to +15 cm and +0.6 s over the period 1970-2001) as well as a southerly shift of wave directions (around -0.4° year-1). Over the same period, an increase of high quantiles of wave heights during the autumn season (around 3 cm year-1 for 90th quantile of significant wave heights (SWH90)) is also apparent. During winter, significant trends are much lower than during summer and autumn despite a slight increase of wave heights and periods during 1958-2001. These trends can be related to modifications in the wave-type occurrence. Finally, the trends common to the five datasets are discussed by analyzing the similarities with centennial trends issued from longer time-scale studies and exploring the various factors that could explain them.

The effect of probe choice and solution conditions on the apparent photoreactivity of dissolved organic matter.

PubMed

Maizel, Andrew C; Remucal, Christina K

2017-08-16

Excited triplet states of dissolved organic matter ( 3 DOM) are quantified directly with the species-specific probes trans,trans-hexadienoic acid (HDA) and 2,4,6-trimethylphenol (TMP), and indirectly with the singlet oxygen ( 1 O 2 ) probe furfuryl alcohol (FFA). Although previous work suggests that these probe compounds may be sensitive to solution conditions, including dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]) and pH, and may quantify different 3 DOM subpopulations, the probes have not been systematically compared. Therefore, we quantify the apparent photoreactivity of diverse environmental waters using HDA, TMP, and FFA. By conducting experiments under ambient [DOC] and pH, with standardized [DOC] and pH, and with solid phase extraction isolates, we demonstrate that much of the apparent dissimilarity in photochemical measurements is attributable to solution conditions, rather than intrinsic differences in 3 DOM production. In general, apparent quantum yields (Φ 1 O 2 ≥ Φ 3 DOM,TMP ≫ Φ 3 DOM,HDA ) and pseudo-steady state concentrations ([ 1 O 2 ] ss > [ 3 DOM] ss,TMP > [ 3 DOM] ss,HDA ) show consistent relationships in all waters under standardized conditions. However, intrinsic differences in 3 DOM photoreactivity are apparent between DOM from diverse sources, as seen in the higher Φ 1 O 2 and lower Φ 3 DOM,TMP of wastewater effluents compared with oligotrophic lakes. Additionally, while conflicting trends in photoreactivity are observed under ambient conditions, all probes observe quantum yields increasing from surface wetlands to terrestrially influenced waters to oligotrophic lakes under standardized conditions. This work elucidates how probe selection and solution conditions influence the apparent photoreactivity of environmental waters and confirms that 3 DOM or 1 O 2 probes cannot be used interchangeably in waters that vary in [DOC], pH, or DOM source.

Different trends in euthanasia acceptance across Europe. A study of 13 western and 10 central and eastern European countries, 1981-2008.

PubMed

Cohen, Joachim; Van Landeghem, Paul; Carpentier, Nico; Deliens, Luc

2013-06-01

We examined how acceptance of euthanasia among the general public has changed between 1981 and 2008 in western and central and eastern European (CEE) countries using data of the European Values Surveys. Data were collected in 1981, 1990, 1999 and 2008 for 13 western European countries and in 1990, 1999 and 2008 for 10 CEE countries. Euthanasia acceptance increased each decade up until 2008 in 11 of 13 western European countries; in CEE countries, it decreased or did not increase between 1999-2008 in 8 of 10 countries. A number of explanations for and implications of this apparent east-west polarization are suggested.

Introduction to the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) of ground-water quality trends and comparison to other national programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosen, Michael R.; Lapham, W.W.

2008-01-01

Assessment of temporal trends in national ground-water quality networks are rarely published in scientific journals. This is partly due to the fact that long-term data from these types of networks are uncommon and because many national monitoring networks are not driven by hypotheses that can be easily incorporated into scientific research. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) since 1991 has to date (2006) concentrated on occurrence of contaminants because sufficient data for trend analysis is only just becoming available. This paper introduces the first set of trend assessments from NAWQA and provides an assessment of the success of the program. On a national scale, nitrate concentrations in ground water have generally increased from 1988 to 2004, but trends in pesticide concentrations are less apparent. Regionally, the studies showed high nitrate concentrations and frequent pesticide detections are linked to agricultural use of fertilizers and pesticides. Most of these areas showed increases in nitrate concentration within the last decade, and these increases are associated with oxic-geochemical conditions and well-drained soils. The current NAWQA plan for collecting data to define trends needs to be constantly reevaluated to determine if the approach fulfills the expected outcome. To assist this evaluation, a comparison of NAWQA to other national ground-water quality programs was undertaken. The design and spatial extent of each national program depend on many factors, including current and long-term budgets, purpose of the program, size of the country, and diversity of aquifer types. Comparison of NAWQA to nine other national programs shows a great diversity in program designs, but indicates that different approaches can achieve similar and equally important goals. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Trends in Ocean Colour and Chlorophyll Concentration from 1889 to 2000, Worldwide

PubMed Central

Wernand, Marcel R.; van der Woerd, Hendrik J.; Gieskes, Winfried W. C.

2013-01-01

Marine primary productivity is an important agent in the global cycling of carbon dioxide, a major ‘greenhouse gas’, and variations in the concentration of the ocean's phytoplankton biomass can therefore explain trends in the global carbon budget. Since the launch of satellite-mounted sensors globe-wide monitoring of chlorophyll, a phytoplankton biomass proxy, became feasible. Just as satellites, the Forel-Ule (FU) scale record (a hardly explored database of ocean colour) has covered all seas and oceans – but already since 1889. We provide evidence that changes of ocean surface chlorophyll can be reconstructed with confidence from this record. The EcoLight radiative transfer numerical model indicates that the FU index is closely related to chlorophyll concentrations in open ocean regions. The most complete FU record is that of the North Atlantic in terms of coverage over space and in time; this dataset has been used to test the validity of colour changes that can be translated to chlorophyll. The FU and FU-derived chlorophyll data were analysed for monotonously increasing or decreasing trends with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, a method to establish the presence of a consistent trend. Our analysis has not revealed a globe-wide trend of increase or decrease in chlorophyll concentration during the past century; ocean regions have apparently responded differentially to changes in meteorological, hydrological and biological conditions at the surface, including potential long-term trends related to global warming. Since 1889, chlorophyll concentrations have decreased in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific; increased in the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean, the Chinese Sea, and in the seas west and north-west of Japan. This suggests that explanations of chlorophyll changes over long periods should focus on hydrographical and biological characteristics typical of single ocean regions, not on those of ‘the’ ocean. PMID:23776435

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch rates and trends, 1991-2011.

PubMed

Lagueux, Cynthia J; Campbell, Cathi L; Strindberg, Samantha

2014-01-01

This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i) an increase in reproductive output, ii) insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii) changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv) the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v) a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population diversity.

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, Fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch Rates and Trends, 1991–2011

PubMed Central

Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Strindberg, Samantha

2014-01-01

This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i) an increase in reproductive output, ii) insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii) changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv) the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v) a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population diversity. PMID:24740258

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. Methods The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Results Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Conclusion Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD. PMID:22958443

Company Training in the United States 1970-2000: What Have Been the Trends over Time?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stern, David; Song, Yingquan; O'Brien, Bridget

2004-01-01

This study uses data from surveys of U.S. employees to determine whether any trends are apparent in the proportion who say they receive some form of training at work. Discussions of economic change in the U.S. and elsewhere have frequently asserted that work has become more intellectually demanding. This implies that training in workplaces should…

Persistent HIV-related stigma in rural Uganda during a period of increasing HIV incidence despite treatment expansion

PubMed Central

Chan, Brian T.; Weiser, Sheri D.; Boum, Yap; Siedner, Mark J.; Mocello, A. Rain; Haberer, Jessica E.; Hunt, Peter W.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Mayer, Kenneth H.; Bangsberg, David R.; Tsai, Alexander C.

2014-01-01

Objective Program implementers have argued that the increasing availability of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) will reduce the stigma of HIV. We analyzed data from Uganda to assess how HIV-related stigma has changed during a period of ART expansion. Design Serial cross-sectional surveys. Methods We analyzed data from the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes (UARTO) study during 2007-2012 to estimate trends in internalized stigma among people living with HIV (PLHIV) at the time of treatment initiation. We analyzed data from the Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 2006 and 2011 to estimate trends in stigmatizing attitudes and anticipated stigma in the general population. We fitted regression models adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics, with year of data collection as the primary explanatory variable. Results We estimated an upward trend in internalized stigma among PLHIV presenting for treatment initiation (adjusted b=0.18; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.30). In the general population, the odds of reporting anticipated stigma were greater in 2011 compared to 2006 (adjusted OR=1.80; 95% CI, 1.51 to 2.13), despite an apparent decline in stigmatizing attitudes (adjusted OR=0.62; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.74). Conclusions Internalized stigma has increased over time among PLHIV in the setting of worsening anticipated stigma in the general population. Further study is needed to better understand the reasons for increasing HIV-related stigma in Uganda and its impact on HIV prevention efforts. PMID:25268886

The Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Trends, Drivers and Projections (1981-2100)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tedesco, Marco; Doherty, Sarah; Fettweis, Xavier; Alexander, Patrick; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-01-01

The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade(sup -1) between 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, albedo modelled by the Modele Atmospherique Regionale (MAR) also shows a decrease, though at a lower rate (approximately -0.01 decade(sup -1)) than that obtained from space-borne data. We suggest that the discrepancy between modelled and measured albedo trends can be explained by the absence in the model of processes associated with the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The negative trend in observed albedo is confined to the regions of the GrIS that undergo melting in summer, with the dry snow zone showing no trend. The period 1981-1996 also showed no statistically significant trend over the whole GrIS. Analysis of MAR outputs indicates that the observed albedo decrease is attributable to the combined effects of increased near-surface air temperatures, which enhanced melt and promoted growth in snow grain size and the expansion of bare ice areas, and to trends in light-absorbing impurities (LAI) on the snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ and remote sensing observations indicate increasing trends in LAI in the atmosphere over Greenland. Similarly, an analysis of the number of fires and BC emissions from fires points to the absence of trends for such quantities. This suggests that the apparent increase of LAI in snow and ice might be related to the exposure of a "dark band" of dirty ice and to increased consolidation of LAI at the surface with melt, not to increased aerosol deposition. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening, with albedo anomalies averaged over the whole ice sheet lower by 0.08 in 2100 than in 2000, driven solely by a warming climate. Future darkening is likely underestimated because of known underestimates in modelled melting (as seen in hindcasts) and because the model albedo scheme does not currently include the effects of LAI, which have a positive feedback on albedo decline through increased melting, grain growth, and darkening.

Status and trends in demography of northern spotted owls, 1985-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Franklin, A.B.; Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.; Schwarz, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Olson, G.S.; Ackers, S.H.; Andrews, L.S.; Biswell, B.L.; Carlson, P.C.; Diller, L.V.; Dugger, K.M.; Fehring, K.E.; Fleming, T.L.; Gerhardt, R.P.; Gremel, S.A.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Happe, P.J.; Herter, D.R.; Higley, J.M.; Horn, R.B.; Irwin, L.L.; Loschl, P.J.; Reid, J.A.; Sovern, S.G.; Krausman, P.R.

2006-01-01

We analyzed demographic data from northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) from 14 study areas in Washington, Oregon, and California for 1985-2003. The purpose of our analyses was to provide an assessment of the status and trends of northern spotted owl populations throughout most of their geographic range. The 14 study areas made up approximately 12% of the range of the subspecies and included federal, tribal, private, and mixed federal and private lands. The study areas also included all the major forest types that the subspecies inhabits. The analyses followed rigorous protocols that were developed a priori and were the result of extensive discussions and consensus among the authors. Our primary objectives were to estimate fecundity, apparent survival (??), and annual rate of population change (??) and to determine if there were any temporal trends in these population parameters. In addition to analyses of data from individual study areas, we conducted 2 meta-analyses on each demographic parameter. One meta-analysis was conducted on all 14 areas, and the other was restricted to the 8 areas that constituted the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan for northern spotted owls under the Northwest Forest Plan. The average number of years of reproductive data per study area was 14 (range = 5-19), and the average number of recapture occasions per study area was 13 (range = 4-18). Only 1 study area had 1 year old. We found no differences in apparent survival rates between sexes except for 1 area (Marin), which had only 6 years of data. Estimates of apparent survival from individual study areas indicated that there were differences among age classes with adults generally having higher survival than 1- and 2-year-olds. Apparent survival rates ranged from 0.750 (SE=0.026) to 0.886 (SE=0.010) for adults, 0.626 (SE=0.073) to 0.886 (SE=0.010) for 2-year-olds, and 0.415 (SE=0.111) to 0.860 (SE=0.017) for 1-year-olds. These estimates were comparable to survival rates from previous studies on the subspecies. We found evidence for negative time trends in survival rate

Socially disparate trends in lifespan variation: a trend study on income and mortality based on nationwide Danish register data.

PubMed

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2017-05-17

Social inequality trends in life expectancy are not informative as to changes in social disparity in the age-at-death distribution. The purpose of the study was to investigate social differentials in trends and patterns of adult mortality in Denmark. Register data on income and mortality from 1986 to 2014 were used to investigate trends in life expectancy, life disparity and the threshold age that separates 'premature' and 'late' deaths. Mortality compression was quantified and compared between income quartiles. Since 1986, male life expectancy increased by 4.2 years for the lowest income quartile and by 8.4 years for the highest income quartile. The clear compression of mortality apparent in the highest income quartile did not occur for the lowest income quartile. Premature and late deaths accounted both by 2.1 years of the increase in life expectancy in the lowest income quartile and by 6.0 and 2.4 years, respectively, in the highest income quartile. Life expectancy increased by 5.2 years among women in the lowest income quartile, 2.4 years due to premature deaths and 2.8 years due to late deaths. The gain in life expectancy among women in the highest income quartile of 5.6 years was distributed by 5.0 and 0.6 years due to premature and late deaths, respectively. The study demonstrates that the increasing social gap in mortality appears differently in the change of the age-at-death distribution. Thus, no compression of mortality was seen in the lowest income quartile. The results do not provide support for a uniformly extension of pension age for all. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Google Trends as a Resource for Informing Plastic Surgery Marketing Decisions.

PubMed

Ward, Brittany; Ward, Max; Paskhover, Boris

2018-04-01

Celebrities have long influenced the medical decisions of the general population. By analyzing Google search data using Google Trends, we measured the impact of highly publicized plastic surgery-related events on the interest level of the general population in specific search terms. Additionally, we investigated seasonal and geographic trends around interest in rhinoplasties, which is information that physicians and small surgical centers can use to optimize marketing decisions. Google Trends was used to access search data histories for three separate areas of interest: Kylie Jenner and lip fillers, Joan Rivers and plastic surgery, and rhinoplasty, which were then analyzed using two-tailed, two-sample equal variance t-tests. The average interest level in fillers increased by 30.31 points after Kylie Jenner announced that she received Juvéderm lip injections. The interest level in plastic surgery was decreased by 21.3% the month after Joan Rivers' death. Between January 2004 and May 2017, the average interest level for rhinoplasty was significantly different in January/December (67.91 ± 20.68) and June/July (70.12 ± 18.89) from the remaining calendar months (63.58 ± 19.67). Los Angeles, New York City, and Miami showed consistently high interest levels throughout the time period, while Tulsa, OK, showed a major interest increase between 2015 to 2016 of 65 points. A noticeable impact was observed in both celebrity cases on search term volume, and a seasonal effect is apparent for rhinoplasty searches. As many surgeons already employ aggressive Internet marketing strategies, understanding and utilizing these trends could help optimize their investments, increase social engagement, and increase practice awareness by potential patients. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Red meat consumption and risk of heart failure in male physicians.

PubMed

Ashaye, A; Gaziano, J; Djoussé, L

2011-12-01

Heart failure (HF) remains a major public health issue. Red meat and dietary heme iron have been associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease and hypertension, two major risk factors for HF. However, it is not known whether red meat intake influences the risk of HF. We therefore examined the association between red meat consumption and incident HF. We prospectively studied 21,120 apparently healthy men (mean age 54.6 y) from the Physicians' Health Study (1982-2008). Red meat was assessed by an abbreviated food questionnaire and incident HF was ascertained through annual follow-up questionnaires. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratios. In a multivariable model, there was a positive and graded relation between red meat consumption and HF [hazard ratio (95% CI) of 1.0 (reference), 1.02 (0.85-1.22), 1.08 (0.90-1.30), 1.17 (0.97-1.41), and 1.24 (1.03-1.48) from the lowest to the highest quintile of red meat, respectively (p for trend 0.007)]. This association was observed for HF with (p for trend 0.035) and without (p for trend 0.038) antecedent myocardial infarction. Our data suggest that higher intake of red meat is associated with an increased risk of HF. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Numerical and Qualitative Contrasts of Two Statistical Models ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Two statistical approaches, weighted regression on time, discharge, and season and generalized additive models, have recently been used to evaluate water quality trends in estuaries. Both models have been used in similar contexts despite differences in statistical foundations and products. This study provided an empirical and qualitative comparison of both models using 29 years of data for two discrete time series of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in the Patuxent River estuary. Empirical descriptions of each model were based on predictive performance against the observed data, ability to reproduce flow-normalized trends with simulated data, and comparisons of performance with validation datasets. Between-model differences were apparent but minor and both models had comparable abilities to remove flow effects from simulated time series. Both models similarly predicted observations for missing data with different characteristics. Trends from each model revealed distinct mainstem influences of the Chesapeake Bay with both models predicting a roughly 65% increase in chl-a over time in the lower estuary, whereas flow-normalized predictions for the upper estuary showed a more dynamic pattern, with a nearly 100% increase in chl-a in the last 10 years. Qualitative comparisons highlighted important differences in the statistical structure, available products, and characteristics of the data and desired analysis. This manuscript describes a quantitative comparison of two recently-

Correlated patterns in hydrothermal plume distribution and apparent magmatic budget along 2500 km of the Southeast Indian Ridge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Edward; Christophe Hémond,; Anne Briais,; Marcia Maia,; Scheirer, Daniel S.; Sharon L. Walker,; Tingting Wang,; Yongshun John Chen,

2014-01-01

Multiple geological processes affect the distribution of hydrothermal venting along a mid-ocean ridge. Deciphering the role of a specific process is often frustrated by simultaneous changes in other influences. Here we take advantage of the almost constant spreading rate (65–71 mm/yr) along 2500 km of the Southeast Indian Ridge (SEIR) between 77°E and 99°E to examine the spatial density of hydrothermal venting relative to regional and segment-scale changes in the apparent magmatic budget. We use 227 vertical profiles of light backscatter and (on 41 profiles) oxidation-reduction potential along 27 first and second-order ridge segments on and adjacent to the Amsterdam-St. Paul (ASP) Plateau to map ph, the fraction of casts detecting a plume. At the regional scale, venting on the five segments crossing the magma-thickened hot spot plateau is almost entirely suppressed (ph = 0.02). Conversely, the combined ph (0.34) from all other segments follows the global trend of ph versus spreading rate. Off the ASP Plateau, multisegment trends in ph track trends in the regional axial depth, high where regional depth increases and low where it decreases. At the individual segment scale, a robust correlation between ph and cross-axis inflation for first-order segments shows that different magmatic budgets among first-order segments are expressed as different levels of hydrothermal spatial density. This correlation is absent among second-order segments. Eighty-five percent of the plumes occur in eight clusters totaling ∼350 km. We hypothesize that these clusters are a minimum estimate of the length of axial melt lenses underlying this section of the SEIR.

Risk of spring frost to apple production under future climate scenarios: the role of phenological acclimation.

PubMed

Eccel, Emanuele; Rea, Roberto; Caffarra, Amelia; Crisci, Alfonso

2009-05-01

In the context of global warming, the general trend towards earlier flowering dates of many temperate tree species is likely to result in an increased risk of damage from exposure to frost. To test this hypothesis, a phenological model of apple flowering was applied to a temperature series from two locations in an important area for apple production in Europe (Trentino, Italy). Two simulated 50-year climatic projections (A2 and B2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change--Special Report on Emission Scenarios) from the HadCM3 general circulation model were statistically downscaled to the two sites. Hourly temperature records over a 40-year period were used as the reference for past climate. In the phenological model, the heat requirement (degree hours) for flowering was parameterized using two approaches; static (constant over time) and dynamic (climate dependent). Parameterisation took into account the trees' adaptation to changing temperatures based on either past instrumental records or the downscaled outputs from the climatic simulations. Flowering dates for the past 40 years and simulated flowering dates for the next 50 years were used in the model. A significant trend towards earlier flowering was clearly detected in the past. This negative trend was also apparent in the simulated data. However, the significance was less apparent when the "dynamic" setting for the degree hours requirement was used in the model. The number of frost episodes and flowering dates, on an annual basis, were graphed to assess the risk of spring frost. Risk analysis confirmed a lower risk of exposure to frost at present than in the past, and probably either constant or a slightly lower risk in future, especially given that physiological processes are expected to acclimate to higher temperatures.

Correlated patterns in hydrothermal plume distribution and apparent magmatic budget along 2500 km of the Southeast Indian Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Edward T.; Hémond, Christophe; Briais, Anne; Maia, Marcia; Scheirer, Daniel S.; Walker, Sharon L.; Wang, Tingting; Chen, Yongshun John

2014-08-01

Multiple geological processes affect the distribution of hydrothermal venting along a mid-ocean ridge. Deciphering the role of a specific process is often frustrated by simultaneous changes in other influences. Here we take advantage of the almost constant spreading rate (65-71 mm/yr) along 2500 km of the Southeast Indian Ridge (SEIR) between 77°E and 99°E to examine the spatial density of hydrothermal venting relative to regional and segment-scale changes in the apparent magmatic budget. We use 227 vertical profiles of light backscatter and (on 41 profiles) oxidation-reduction potential along 27 first and second-order ridge segments on and adjacent to the Amsterdam-St. Paul (ASP) Plateau to map ph, the fraction of casts detecting a plume. At the regional scale, venting on the five segments crossing the magma-thickened hot spot plateau is almost entirely suppressed (ph = 0.02). Conversely, the combined ph (0.34) from all other segments follows the global trend of ph versus spreading rate. Off the ASP Plateau, multisegment trends in ph track trends in the regional axial depth, high where regional depth increases and low where it decreases. At the individual segment scale, a robust correlation between ph and cross-axis inflation for first-order segments shows that different magmatic budgets among first-order segments are expressed as different levels of hydrothermal spatial density. This correlation is absent among second-order segments. Eighty-five percent of the plumes occur in eight clusters totaling ˜350 km. We hypothesize that these clusters are a minimum estimate of the length of axial melt lenses underlying this section of the SEIR.

Long-term response of surface water acid neutralizing capacity in a central Appalachian (USA) river basin to declining acid deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kline, Kathleen M.; Eshleman, Keith N.; Garlitz, James E.; U'Ren, Sarah H.

2016-12-01

Long-term changes in acid-base chemistry resulting from declining regional acid deposition were examined using data from repeating synoptic surveys conducted within the 275 km2 Upper Savage River Watershed (USRW) in western Maryland (USA); a randomly-selected set of 40 stream reaches was sampled 36 times between 1999 and 2014 to: (1) repeatedly characterize the acid-base status of the entire river basin; (2) determine whether an extensive network of streams of varying order has shown signs of recovery in acid neutralizing capacity (ANC); and (3) understand the key factors controlling the rate of ANC recovery across the river network. Several non-parametric analyses of trends (i.e., Mann Kendall Trend: MKT tests; and Regional Kendall Trend: RKT) in streamwater acid-base chemistry suggest that USRW has significantly responded to declining acid deposition during the study period; the two most robust, statistically significant trends were decreasing surface water SO42- (∼1.5 μeq L-1 yr-1) and NO3- (∼1 μeq L-1 yr-1) concentrations-consistent with observed downward trends in regional wet S and N deposition. Basin-wide decreasing trends in K+, Mg2+, and Ca2+ were also observed, while Na+ concentrations increased. Significant ANC recovery was observed in 10-20% of USRW stream reaches (depending on the p level used), but the magnitude of the trend relative to natural variability was apparently insufficient to allow detection of a basin-wide ANC trend using the RKT test. Watershed factors, such as forest disturbances and increased application of road deicing salts, appeared to contribute to substantial variability in concentrations of NO3- and Na+ in streams across the basin, but these factors did not affect our overall interpretation of the results as a systematic recovery of USRW from regional acidification. Methodologically, RKT appears to be a robust method for identifying basin-wide trends using synoptic data, but MKT results for individual systems should be examined closely (e.g., to identify trends for specific subpopulations).

KIC 8462852: Maria Mitchell Observatory Photographic Photometry 1922 to 1991

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelaz, M.; Barker, T.

2018-06-01

A new study of the long-term photometric behavior of the the unusual star KIC 8462852 (Boyajian's Star) has been carried out using archival photographic plates from 1922ñ1991 taken at the Maria Mitchell Observatory (MMO). We find five episodes of sudden, several day, decreases in magnitude occurring in 1935, 1966, 1978, and two in 1980. Episodes of sudden increase in magnitude appear to occur in 1967 and 1977. Inspection of archival light curves of KIC 8462852 from two previous studies based on the Harvard and the Sonneberg plate collections finds apparent corresponding events to these observed episodes in the MMO light curve. Also, a general trend of 0.12 ± 0.02 magnitude per century decrease is observed in the MMO light curve, significant, but less than the trend of 0.164 ± 0.013 observed in the Harvard light curve.

A water-quality assessment of the Burnham Creek Watershed, Polk County, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Have, M.R.

1975-01-01

A water-quality assessment of the Burnham Creek watershed, Polk County, Minn., was made in May 1975. Surface waters were calcium magnesium bicarbonate types with 0.11 mg/liter or less of nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen and 0.10 mg/liter or less of total phosphorous. Fecal coliform bacteria concentrations were between 3 and 720 colonies per 100 milliliters and fecal Streptococci concentrations ranged between 19 and 1600 colonies per 100 milliliters. Pesticide concentrations were low in the stream bottom materials, but an increasing trend was apparent in the downstream direction. The benthic community was dominated by blackfly larvae.

Survival estimates for reintroduced populations of the Chiricahua Leopard Frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, Paige E; Hossack, Blake R.; Muths, Erin L.; Sigafus, Brent H.; Chandler, Richard B.

2016-01-01

Global amphibian declines have been attributed to a number of factors including disease, invasive species, habitat degradation, and climate change. Reintroduction is one management action that is commonly used with the goal of recovering imperiled species. The success of reintroductions varies widely, and evaluating their efficacy requires estimates of population viability metrics, such as underlying vital rates and trends in abundance. Although rarely quantified, assessing vital rates for recovering populations provides a more mechanistic understanding of population growth than numerical trends in population occupancy or abundance. We used three years of capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding ponds and a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate annual apparent survival for reintroduced populations of the federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis) at the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), in the Altar Valley, Arizona, USA. To place our results in context, we also compiled published survival estimates for other ranids. Average apparent survival of Chiricahua Leopard Frogs at BANWR was 0.27 (95% CI [0.07, 0.74]) and average individual capture probability was 0.02 (95% CI [0, 0.05]). Our apparent survival estimate for Chiricahua Leopard Frogs is lower than for most other ranids and is not consistent with recent research that showed metapopulation viability in the Altar Valley is high. We suggest that low apparent survival may be indicative of high emigration rates. We recommend that future research should estimate emigration rates so that actual, rather than apparent, survival can be quantified to improve population viability assessments of threatened species following reintroduction efforts.

Analyzing Recent Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009

PubMed Central

Saidi, Olfa; Ben Mansour, Nadia; O’Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon; Critchley, Julia A.; Romdhane, Habiba Ben

2013-01-01

Background In Tunisia, Cardiovascular Diseases are the leading causes of death (30%), 70% of those are coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and population studies have demonstrated that major risk factor levels are increasing. Objective To explain recent CHD trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009. Methods Data Sources: Published and unpublished data were identified by extensive searches, complemented with specifically designed surveys. Analysis Data were integrated and analyzed using the previously validated IMPACT CHD policy model. Data items included: (i)number of CHD patients in specific groups (including acute coronary syndromes, congestive heart failure and chronic angina)(ii) uptake of specific medical and surgical treatments, and(iii) population trends in major cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), diabetes and physical inactivity). Results CHD mortality rates increased by 11.8% for men and 23.8% for women, resulting in 680 additional CHD deaths in 2009 compared with the 1997 baseline, after adjusting for population change. Almost all (98%) of this rise was explained by risk factor increases, though men and women differed. A large rise in total cholesterol level in men (0.73 mmol/L) generated 440 additional deaths. In women, a fall (−0.43 mmol/L), apparently avoided about 95 deaths. For SBP a rise in men (4 mmHg) generated 270 additional deaths. In women, a 2 mmHg fall avoided 65 deaths. BMI and diabetes increased substantially resulting respectively in 105 and 75 additional deaths. Increased treatment uptake prevented about 450 deaths in 2009. The most important contributions came from secondary prevention following Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) (95 fewer deaths), initial AMI treatments (90), antihypertensive medications (80) and unstable angina (75). Conclusions Recent trends in CHD mortality mainly reflected increases in major modifiable risk factors, notably SBP and cholesterol, BMI and diabetes. Current prevention strategies are mainly focused on treatments but should become more comprehensive. PMID:23658808

Influence of gamma radiation on the physicochemical and rheological properties of sterculia gum polysaccharides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Baljit; Sharma, Vikrant

2013-11-01

Keeping in view the influence of gamma radiation on the physiochemical properties of the polysaccharides and their importance in the food and pharmaceutical industry, in the present study attempt has been made to investigate the effects of absorbed dose on FTIR, XRD, SEMs, absorbance, pH, solubility, water absorption capacity, emulsion stability and rheology of sterculia gum. Increase in solubility and decrease in swellability of gum has been observed on increasing the absorbed dose. The emulsion stability has improved for the gum sample irradiated with total dose of 8.1±0.2 kGy. Apparent viscosity of gum solution first increased with increase in dose from 0 to 8.1±0.2 kGy than decreased with regular trends with further increase in total absorbed dose. Flow behavior of gum solution shifted to Newtonian from non-Newtonian with increasing the dose.

Trends in alcohol-impaired driving in Canada.

PubMed

Vanlaar, Ward; Robertson, Robyn; Marcoux, Kyla; Mayhew, Daniel; Brown, Steve; Boase, Paul

2012-09-01

While a general decreasing trend in the number of persons killed in a traffic crash involving a drinking driver has occurred in Canada since the 1980s, it is evident that much of this decrease occurred in the 1990s. Since 2002, less progress has been made as the number of persons killed in crashes involving drinking drivers remains high. To better understand the current situation, this paper describes trends in drinking and driving in Canada from 1998 to 2011 using multiple indicators based on data collected for the Traffic Injury Research Foundation's (TIRF) Road Safety Monitor (RSM), the National Opinion Poll on Drinking and Driving, and trends in alcohol-related crashes based on data collected for TIRF's national Fatality Database in Canada. There has been a continued and consistent decrease in the number of fatalities involving a drinking driver in Canada. This remains true when looking at the number of fatalities involving a drinking driver per 100,000 population and per 100,000 licensed drivers. This decreasing trend is also still apparent when considering the percentage of persons killed in a traffic crash in Canada involving a drinking driver although less pronounced. Data from the RSM further show that the percentage of those who reported driving after they thought they were over the legal limit has also declined. However, regardless of the apparent decreasing trend in drinking driving fatalities and behaviour, reductions have been relatively modest, and fatalities in crashes involving drivers who have consumed alcohol remain high at unacceptable levels. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thyroid hormones and coronary artery calcification in euthyroid men and women.

PubMed

Zhang, Yiyi; Kim, Bo-Kyoung; Chang, Yoosoo; Ryu, Seungho; Cho, Juhee; Lee, Won-Young; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Kwon, Min-Jung; Rampal, Sanjay; Zhao, Di; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Lima, Joao A; Shin, Hocheol; Guallar, Eliseo

2014-09-01

Overt and subclinical hypothyroidism are risk factors for atherosclerosis. It is unclear whether thyroid hormone levels within the normal range are also associated with atherosclerosis measured by coronary artery calcium (CAC). We conducted a cross-sectional study of 41 403 apparently healthy young and middle-aged men and women with normal thyroid hormone levels. Free thyroxin, free triiodothyronine, and thyroid-stimulating hormone levels were measured by electrochemiluminescent immunoassay. CAC score was measured by multidetector computed tomography. The multivariable adjusted CAC ratios comparing the highest versus the lowest quartile of thyroid hormones were 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.91; P for trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.81 (0.66-1.00; P for trend=0.05) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.78 (0.64-0.95; P for trend=0.01) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. Similarly, the odds ratios for detectable CAC (CAC >0) comparing the highest versus the lowest quartiles of thyroid hormones were 0.87 (0.79-0.96; P for linear trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.90 (0.82-0.99; P for linear trend=0.02) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.91 (0.83-1.00; P for linear trend=0.03) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. In a large cohort of apparently healthy young and middle-aged euthyroid men and women, low-normal free thyroxin and thyroid-stimulating hormone were associated with a higher prevalence of subclinical coronary artery disease and with a greater degree of coronary calcification. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Hartree-Fock values of energies, interaction constants, and atomic properties for excited states with 3 d N4 s0 and 3 d n4 s2 configurations of the negative ions, neutral atoms, and first four positive ions of the transition elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, C. D.; Jastram, J. D.; Hitt, N. P.; Woffod, J.; Rice, K. C.

2012-12-01

Global climate-change models predict warmer stream temperatures, but there have been few studies that document such effects on stream communities. In Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, long-term temperature records indicate that stream temperatures show an increasing trend over the last 20 years and especially over the last 10 years. Stream temperatures have increased apparently due to atmospheric warming (i.e., stream temperatures are strongly correlated with regional air temperature patterns). Across 14 monitored stream sites, the median increase in maximum annual water temperature was 0.32oC per year for the 10-yr period between 2000 and 2009, and all 14 sites had positive trend slopes. Moreover, in contrast to water-chemistry trends, temperature trends showed no spatial structure and were consistent throughout the park. The observed warming is consistent with global warming projections, but other factors, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and forest defoliation due to gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), also may have contributed to warming trends. We summarized benthic macroinvertebrate community composition and structure from samples collected at 24 stream sites over the last 20 years and evaluated temporal patterns in the context of observed temperature trends. We found that a substantial amount of temporal variation in both taxonomic composition and community structure could be explained by temperature trends, even after accounting for water-chemistry changes. We observed significant declines in community diversity as well as a decline in the abundance of several stonefly (Plecoptera) taxa, a cold-water-dependent taxonomic group. We hypothesize that temperature-induced changes in the diversity and composition of macroinvertebrate communities could cascade to other faunal groups and other parts of the watershed. For instance, reduced abundances of stoneflies, an important component of the shredder functional group, may lead to reduced export of fine particulate organic matter from headwaters, disrupting food webs and reducing productivity to stream reaches farther downstream.

Variations in northern hemisphere snowfall: An analysis of historical trends and the projected response to anthropogenic forcing in the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krasting, John P.

Snowfall is an important feature of the Earth's climate system that has the ability to influence both the natural world and human activity. This dissertation examines past and future changes in snowfall related to increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Snowfall observations for North America, derived snowfall products for the Northern Hemisphere, and simulations performed with 13 coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models are analyzed. The analysis of the spatial pattern of simulated annual trends on a grid point basis from 1951 to 1999 indicates that a transition zone exists above 60° N latitude across the Northern Hemisphere that separates negative trends in annual snowfall in the mid-latitudes and positive trends at higher latitudes. Regional analysis of observed annual snowfall indicates that statistically significant trends are found in western North America, Japan, and southern Russia. A majority of the observed historical trends in annual snowfall elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, however, are not statistically significant and this result is consistent with model simulations. Projections of future snowfall indicate the presence of a similar transition zone between negative and positive snowfall trends that corresponds with the area between the -10 to -15°C isotherms of the multi-model mean temperature of the late twentieth century in each of the fall, winter, and spring seasons. Redistributions of snowfall throughout the entire snow season are likely -- even in locations where there is little change in annual snowfall. Changes in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow contribute to decreases in snowfall across most Northern Hemisphere regions, while changes in precipitation typically contribute to increases in snowfall. Snowfall events less than or equal to 5 cm are found to decrease in the future across most of the Northern Hemisphere, while snowfall events greater than or equal to 20 cm increase in some locations, such as northern Quebec. A signal-to-noise analysis reveals that the projected changes in snowfall are likely to become apparent during the twenty-first century for most locations in the Northern Hemisphere.

Trends in the incidence, clinical presentation, and management of traumatic rupture of the corpus cavernosum.

PubMed

Ekwere, Paul D; Al Rashid, Mohammed

2004-02-01

Recent observations in our hospital of apparent increase in frequency prompted a revisit to the subject of fracture of penis. In a retrospective review, patients' age, marital status, and causal activities; clinical presentations; methods of management; operative findings; and postoperative complications were analyzed for changing trends. Literature was also reviewed briefly. Nineteen episodes of penile fracture in 18 patients exceed the previous incidence by more than 58%. Most were due to noncoital causes (73.7%); more unmarried people (31.6%) were affected. Most presented with the classic symptoms/signs, and tears were repaired by degloving through subcoronal incisions; one was treated conservatively. The higher morbidity observed was attributed to higher rates of hematoma and wound infections, probably enhanced by poor hemostasis and early persistent, postoperative erections. Painful erections, painful coitus, and deformities, however subsided within weeks, with no long-term ill effects. The incidence of penile fracture, postoperative hematoma, and infections has increased; about 32% of the patients were unmarried. The prominence of masturbation as a cause of penile fracture and increased ratio of noncoital to coital causes are highlighted. Degloving through subcoronal incisions remains an acceptable method of approach for repair in line with cultural practices in Saudi Arabia.

The non-cancer mortality experience of male workers at British Nuclear Fuels plc, 1946–2005

PubMed Central

McGeoghegan, Dave; Binks, Keith; Gillies, Michael; Jones, Steve; Whaley, Steve

2008-01-01

Background Recent studies of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors, together with some (but not all) cohorts exposed occupationally or medically to ionizing radiation, have found an increasing trend in mortality from non-malignant disease with increasing radiation dose. The aim of this study was to establish whether such a trend could be found in a large cohort of employees in the UK nuclear industry. Methods The cohort comprised 64 937 individuals ever employed at the study sites between 1946 and 2002, followed up to 2005; radiation exposures as measured by personal dosimeters (‘film badges’) were available for 42 426 individuals classified as ‘radiation workers’. Poisson regression models were used to investigate the relationship between excess mortality rates and cumulative radiation exposure, using both relative and additive risk models. Results The cohort shows a pronounced ‘healthy worker’ effect. Overall, socio-economic status as indicated by employment status has a greater influence on mortality than does radiation exposure status. For male radiation workers, there is an apparent dose response for mortality from circulatory system disease [P < 0.001, ERR = 0.65 (90% CI 0.36–0.98) Sv−1]. However there is evidence for inhomogeneity in the apparent dose response (P = 0.016), arising principally at cumulative doses in excess of 300 mSv, when the four categories of employment and radiation exposure status are examined separately. Conclusions We have found evidence for an association between mortality from non-cancer causes of death, particularly circulatory system disease, and external exposure to ionizing radiation in this cohort. However, the tentative nature of biological mechanisms that might explain such an effect at low chronic doses and the above inhomogeneities in apparent dose–response, mean that the results of our analysis are not consistent with any simple causal interpretation. Further work is required to explain these inhomogeneities, and on the possible role of factors associated with socio-economic status and shift working, before any further conclusions can be drawn. PMID:18319298

Evolutionary trends in arvicolids and the endemic murid Mikrotia - New data and a critical overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maul, Lutz C.; Masini, Federico; Parfitt, Simon A.; Rekovets, Leonid; Savorelli, Andrea

2014-07-01

The study of evolutionary rates dates back to the work of Simpson and Haldane in the 1940s. Small mammals, especially Plio-Pleistocene arvicolids (voles and lemmings), are particularly suited for such studies because they have an unusually complete fossil record and exhibit significant evolutionary change through time. In recent decades, arvicolids have been the focus of intensive research devoted to the tempo and mode of evolutionary change and the identification of trends in dental evolution that can be used to correlate and date fossil sites. These studies have raised interesting questions about whether voles and lemmings had unique evolutionary trajectories, or show convergent evolutionary patterns with other hypsodont rodents. Here we review evolutionary patterns in selected arvicolid lineages and endemic Messinian murids (Mikrotia spp.) and discuss reasons for convergence in dental morphology in these two groups of hypsodont rodents. The results substantiate previously detected patterns, but the larger dataset shows that some trends are less regular than previous studies have suggested. With the exception of a pervasive and sustained trend towards increased hypsodonty, our results show that other features do not follow consistent patterns in all lineages, exhibiting a mosaic pattern comprising stasis, variable rate evolution and gradual unidirectional change through time. Evidence for higher evolutionary rates is found in lineages apparently undergoing adaptations to new ecological niches. In the case of Mikrotia, Microtus voles and the water vole (Mimomys-Arvicola) lineage, a shift to a fossorial lifestyle appears to have been an important driving force in their evolution. For other characters, different causes can be invoked; for example a shift to a semi-aquatic lifestyle may be responsible for the trend towards increasing size in Arvicola. Biochronological application of the data should take into account the complexity and biases of the data.

Effect of Elevated Carbon Dioxide on Nutritional Quality of Tomato

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, R. M.; Mackowiak, C. L.; Stutte, G. W.; Yorio, N. C.; Berry, W. L.

1997-01-01

Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) cvs. Red Robin (RR) and Reimann Philipp (RP) were grown hydroponically for 105 d with a 12 h photoperiod, 26 C/22 C thermoperiod, and 500 micromol/ sq m/s PPF at either 400, 1200, 5000, or 10,000 micromol/mol (0.04, 0.12, 0.50, 1.00 kPa) CO2. Harvested fruits were analyzed for proximate composition, total dietary fiber, nitrate, and elemental composition. No trends were apparent with regard to CO2 effects on proximate composition, with fruit from all treatments and both cultivars averiging 18.9 % protein, 3.6 % fat, 10.2 % ash, and 67.2 % carbohydrate. In comparison, average values for field-grown fruit are 16.6 % protein, 3.8 % fat, 8.1 % ash, and 71.5 % carbohydrate (Duke and Atchely, 1986). Total dietary fiber was highest at 10,000 micromol/mol (28.4 % and 22.6 % for RR and RP) and lowest at 1000 micromol/mol (18.2 % and 15.9 % for RR and RP), but showed no overall trend in response to CO2. Nitrate values ranged from 0.19 % to 0.35 % and showed no trend with regard to CO2. K, Mg, and P concentrations showed no trend in response to CO2, but Ca levels increased from 198 and 956 ppm in RR and RP at 400 micromol/mol, to 2537 and 2825 ppm at 10,000 micromol/mol. This increase in Ca caused an increase in fruit Ca/P ratios from 0.07 and 0.37 for RR and RP at 400 micromol/molto 0.99 and 1.23 for RR and RP at 10,000 micromol/mol suggesting that more dietary Ca should be available from high CO2-grown fruit.

Fungal degradation of wood lignins: Geochemical perspectives from CuO-derived phenolic dimers and monomers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goñi, Miguel A.; Nelson, Bryan; Blanchette, Robert A.; Hedges, John I.

1993-08-01

The elemental compositions and yields of CuO-derived phenol dimers and monomers from woods degraded by different fungi under laboratory and natural conditions were compared to those from undegraded controls. In laboratory experiments, white-rot fungi caused pronounced mass losses, lowered the organic carbon content of the remnant woods, and decreased the absolute carbon-normalized yields of the major classes of lignin phenol dimers and monomers. White-rot decay induced large losses of some CuO reaction products, such as (β,1-diketone and α,l-monoketone dimers and syringyl monomers, and increased the absolute yields of individual acidic reaction products, such as dehydrodivanillic acid, vanillic acid, and 2-syringylsyringic acid. In contrast, the brown-rot fungus, Fomitopsis pinicola, was less efficient in decaying lignin, inducing lower absolute lignin phenol losses and, in some cases, increasing the organic carbon content of remnant woods. Several lignin constituents, mainly carboxyvanillyl monomers and α,2-methyl and α,5-monoketone dimers, were produced during brown-rot degradation. Similar diagenetic trends were also apparent in the five woods collected from the field, suggesting the differences between white- and brown-rot decay are still apparent after more extensive degradation in natural environments. The lignin compositions from a selected set of previously analyzed sedimentary mixtures were generally consistent with the diagenetic trends observed in both laboratory and field samples. In some cases, however, geochemical parameters such as elevated dimer/monomer and carboxyvanillyl/ vanillyl monomer ratios clearly distinguished certain sedimentary lignins. In these samples, other processes, such as extensive fungal decay, bacterial degradation, or a nonwoody vascular plant origin, could be important factors affecting lignin compositions.

Physicochemical and functional properties of gamma irradiated buckwheat and potato starch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Ruchi; Jan, Shumaila; Rani, Savita; Jan, Kulsum; Swer, Tanya L.; Prakash, Kumar S.; Dar, M. Z.; Bashir, Khalid

2018-03-01

Starches isolated from buckwheat and potato were subject to different doses of irradiation at 0, 5, 10, 15 and 20 kGy. Native and irradiated starch samples were evaluated for their physicochemical and functional properties to assess the effect of gamma irradiation. Apparent amylose content decreased significantly from 26.84% to 22.12% and 27.01 to 16.11% for buckwheat and potato starch respectively as the dose increased. A significant decrease was observed in pH, swelling power and syneresis as the dose increased for both buckwheat and potato starch. pH decreased from 5.20 to 3.81 and 5.81 to 3.95 for buckwheat and potato starch, respectively. Carboxyl content, freeze thaw stability, water and oil absorption capacity and transmittance showed increasing trend with increasing irradiation dose. Carboxyl content increased from 0% to 0.23% and 0-0.22% for buckwheat and potato starch, respectively.

Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

PubMed

Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

2015-05-01

The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trend (1999-2009) in U.S. death rates from myelodysplastic syndromes: utility of multiple causes of death in surveillance.

PubMed

Polednak, Anthony P

2013-10-01

For myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) (formerly known as preleukemia), a diverse group of myeloid neoplasms usually involving anemia in elderly persons, trends in U.S. death rates apparently have not been reported. Trends in annual age-standardized rates per 100,000 from 1999 to 2009 were examined for MDS using multiple causes vs. underlying cause alone, coded on death certificates for U.S. residents. The death rate (all ages combined) for MDS increased from 1999 to 2009, from 1.62 to 1.84 using underlying cause alone and from 2.89 to 3.27 using multiple causes. Rates using multiple causes were about 80% higher than those based on underlying cause alone. From 2001 to 2004 the rate for MDS using underlying cause alone (but not using multiple causes) declined, accompanied by an increase in the rate for deaths from leukemia as underlying cause with mention of MDS; this trend coincided with the advent of the 2001 World Health Organization's reclassification of certain MDS as leukemia. The MDS rate for age 65+ years increased after 2005, whereas the rate for age 25-64 years was low but declined from 2001 to 2003 and then stabilized. For deaths with MDS coded as other than underlying cause, rates did not decline for deaths from each of the two most common causes (i.e., cardiovascular diseases and leukemia). Evidence for decreases in MDS-related mortality rates was limited; the increase at age 65+ years is consistent with increases in incidence rates reported from cancer registries. Using multiple causes of death vs. only the underlying cause results in substantially higher MDS-related death rates, shows the impact of changes in the classification of myeloid neoplasms and emphasizes the importance of reducing cardiovascular disease mortality in MDS patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased inequality in mortality from road crashes among Arabs and Jews in Israel.

PubMed

Magid, Avi; Leibovitch-Zur, Shalhevet; Baron-Epel, Orna

2015-01-01

Previous studies in several countries have shown that the economically disadvantaged seem to have a greater risk of being involved in a car crash. The aim of the present study was to compare rates and trends in mortality and injury from road crashes by age among the Arab and Jewish populations in Israel. Data on road crashes with casualties (2003-2011) from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics were analyzed. Age-adjusted road crash injury rates and mortality rates for 2003 to 2011 were calculated and time trends for each age group and population group are presented. Time trend significance was evaluated by linear regression models. Arabs in Israel are at increased risk of injury and mortality from road crashes compared to Jews. Road crash injury rates have significantly decreased in both populations over the last decade, although the rates have been persistently higher among Arabs. Road crash mortality rates have also decreased significantly in the Jewish population but not in the Arab population. This implies an increase in the disparity in mortality between Jews and Arabs. The most prominent differences in road crash injury and mortality rates between Arabs and Jews can be observed in young adults and young children. The reduction in road crashes in the last decade is a positive achievement. However, the reductions are not equal among Arabs and Jews in Israel. Therefore, an increase in the disparities in mortality from road crashes is apparent. Public health efforts need to focus specifically on decreasing road crashes in the Arab community.

Methods to determine metabolizable energy and digestibility of feed ingredients in the domestic pigeon (Columba livia domestica).

PubMed

Sales, J; Janssens, G P J

2003-09-01

The influence of length of excreta collection period (1, 3, 6, 10, 14 d) and prefeeding protocol (7 d either individual feeding in collection cages or group feeding in housing cages) on AMEn, nitrogen retention (NR), and apparent DM, organic matter and ether extract digestibility of corn and peas were evaluated in domestic pigeons (Columba livia domestica). In addition, the use of internal markers [acid-insoluble ash (AIA) and acid detergent lignin (ADL)] to determine AMEn, NR, and apparent digestibility was compared with the method of measuring total feed input and excreta output. A quadratic (y = a + bx + cx2) trend in the CV for AMEn, NR, and apparent digestibility coefficients found over collection periods with corn presented evidence that excreta collection for a period of 3 d will produce a CV of 5% less than the minimum CV. Although no trend could be detected in CV for peas, a 3-d excreta collection period resulted in relatively low variation. Both AIA and ADL, when used as internal markers, resulted in AMEn, NR, and digestibility values below (P < 0.05) those obtained with total collection with corn. However, values between markers were comparable (P > 0.05) for all components evaluated. The ADL was unsuccessful as marker with peas. Group prefeeding of pigeons in housing cages resulted in lower feed intake, excreta output, NR, and apparent digestibility than when birds were adapted individually to collection cages. This study presents evidence that the method of measuring total feed intake and excreta output for a period of 3 d, with individual adaptation of birds to collection cages, resulted in the most reliable values for AMEn, NR, and apparent digestibility of DM, organic matter and ether extract of feed ingredients in pigeons.

Integrated geophysical investigations for the delineation of source and subsurface structure associated with hydro-uranium anomaly: A case study from South Purulia Shear Zone (SPSZ), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, S. P.; Biswas, A.

2012-12-01

South Purulia Shear Zone (SPSZ) is an important region for prospecting of uranium mineralization. Geological studies and hydro-uranium anomaly suggest the presence of Uranium deposit around Raghunathpur village which lies about 8 km north of SPSZ. However, detailed geophysical investigations have not been carried out in this region for investigation of uranium mineralization. Since surface signature of uranium mineralization is not depicted near the location, a deeper subsurface source is expected for hydro uranium anomaly. To delineate the subsurface structure and to investigate the origin of hydro-uranium anomaly present in the area, Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) using Schlumberger array and Gradient Resistivity Profiling (GRP) were performed at different locations along a profile perpendicular to the South Purulia Shear Zone. Apparent resistivity computed from the measured sounding data at various locations shows a continuously increasing trend. As a result, conventional apparent resistivity data is not able to detect the possible source of hydro uranium anomaly. An innovative approach is applied which depicts the apparent conductivity in the subsurface revealed a possible connection from SPSZ to Raghunathpur. On the other hand resistivity profiling data suggests a low resistive zone which is also characterized by low Self-Potential (SP) anomaly zone. Since SPSZ is characterized by the source of uranium mineralization; hydro-uranium anomaly at Raghunathpur is connected with the SPSZ. The conducting zone has been delineated from SPSZ to Raghunathpur at deeper depths which could be uranium bearing. Since the location is also characterized by a low gravity and high magnetic anomaly zone, this conducting zone is likely to be mineralized zone. Keywords: Apparent resistivity; apparent conductivity; Self Potential; Uranium mineralization; shear zone; hydro-uranium anomaly.

Apparent late Quaternary fault slip rate increase in the southwestern Lower Rhine Graben, central Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gold, Ryan D.; Friedrich, Anke M.; Kubler, Simon; Salamon, Martin

2017-01-01

In regions of low strain, long earthquake recurrence intervals (104–106  yrs) and erosive processes limit preservation of Quaternary markers suitable for distinguishing whether faults slip at uniform or secularly varying rates. The Lower Rhine graben in the border region of Germany, The Netherlands, and Belgium provides a unique opportunity to explore Quaternary slip‐rate variations in a region of low strain using the basal (2.29±0.29  Ma) and surface (700±80  ka) contacts of the regionally extensive main terrace (“Hauptterrasse”), deposited by the Rhine and Maas Rivers. These surfaces are vertically offset 3–140 m and 0–68 m, respectively, across individual fault strands within a distributed network of northwest‐trending, slow‐slipping (<0.1  mm/yr) normal faults. In this investigation, we construct Quaternary slip histories for the southern Lower Rhine graben faults using new main terrace surface vertical offset measurements made from light detection and ranging (lidar)‐derived bare‐earth digital terrain models, which we synthesize with existing constraints on the offset basal contact of this fluvial deposit (n=91 collocated sites with displacement constraints). We find that >80% of the sites record an apparent increase in slip rate for the more recent interval from 700 ka to present, which corresponds to a period of increased uplift of the nearby Rhenish Massif and regional volcanism. However, the apparent increase in slip rate could result, in part, from erosion of the footwall surface below the main terrace, leading to an apparent displacement that is smaller than the total vertical offset since the start of the Quaternary. Prior work focused on characterization of these faults as seismic sources in the Lower Rhine graben has preferentially relied on the average fault‐slip rate constrained using the base of the main terrace. We suggest that average fault‐slip rates calculated using the ∼700  ka main terrace surface are subjected to fewer uncertainties and sample a time interval that is more relevant for seismic‐hazard analysis.

Red meat consumption and risk of heart failure in male physicians

PubMed Central

Ashaye, A; Gaziano, J; Djoussé, L

2010-01-01

Background and Aims Heart failure (HF) remains a major public health issue. Red meat and dietary heme iron have been associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease and hypertension, two major risk factors for HF. However, it is not known whether red meat intake influences the risk of HF. We therefore examined the association between red meat consumption and incident HF. Methods and Results We prospectively studied 21,120 apparently healthy men (mean age 54.6 y) from the Physicians’ Health Study (1982–2008). Red meat was assessed by an abbreviated food questionnaire and incident HF was ascertained through annual follow-up questionnaires. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratios. In a multivariable model, there was a positive and graded relation between red meat consumption and HF [hazard ratio (95% CI) of 1.0 (reference), 1.02 (0.85–1.22), 1.08 (0.90–1.30), 1.17 (0.97–1.41), and 1.24 (1.03–1.48) from the lowest to the highest quintile of red meat, respectively (p for trend 0.007)]. This association was observed for HF with (p for trend 0. 035) and without (p for trend 0.038) antecedent myocardial infarction. Conclusion Our data suggest that higher intake of red meat is associated with an increased risk of HF. PMID:20675107

Response of non-point source pollutant loads to climate change in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment.

PubMed

Zhang, Lei; Lu, Wenxi; An, Yonglei; Li, Di; Gong, Lei

2012-01-01

The impacts of climate change on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment are predicted by combining a general circulation model (HadCM3) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A statistical downscaling model was used to generate future local scenarios of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. Then, the downscaled meteorological variables were used as input to the SWAT hydrological model calibrated and validated with observations, and the corresponding changes of future streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment were simulated and analyzed. Results show that daily temperature increases in three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) relative to a baseline of 1961-1990, and the rate of increase is 0.63°C per decade. Annual precipitation also shows an apparent increase of 11 mm per decade. The calibration and validation results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate well the streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads, with a coefficient of determination of 0.7 and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of about 0.7 for both the calibration and validation periods. The future climate change has a significant impact on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads. The annual streamflow shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2099, with an increase rate of 1.1 m(3) s(-1) per decade, and a significant upward trend in summer, with an increase rate of 1.32 m(3) s(-1) per decade. The increase in summer contributes the most to the increase of annual load compared with other seasons. The annual NH (4) (+) -N load into Shitoukoumen reservoir shows a significant downward trend with a decrease rate of 40.6 t per decade. The annual TP load shows an insignificant increasing trend, and its change rate is 3.77 t per decade. The results of this analysis provide a scientific basis for effective support of decision makers and strategies of adaptation to climate change.

Bans of WHO Class I Pesticides in Bangladesh—suicide prevention without hampering agricultural output

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Fazle Rabbi; Dewan, Gourab; Verma, Vasundhara R; Knipe, Duleeka W; Isha, Ishrat Tahsin; Faiz, M Abul; Gunnell, David J; Eddleston, Michael

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Pesticide self-poisoning is a major problem in Bangladesh. Over the past 20-years, the Bangladesh government has introduced pesticide legislation and banned highly hazardous pesticides (HHPs) from agricultural use. We aimed to assess the impacts of pesticide bans on suicide and on agricultural production. Methods We obtained data on unnatural deaths from the Statistics Division of Bangladesh Police, and used negative binomial regression to quantify changes in pesticide suicides and unnatural deaths following removal of WHO Class I toxicity HHPs from agriculture in 2000. We assessed contemporaneous trends in other risk factors, pesticide usage and agricultural production in Bangladesh from 1996 to 2014. Results Mortality in hospital from pesticide poisoning fell after the 2000 ban: 15.1% vs 9.5%, relative reduction 37.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) 35.4 to 38.8%]. The pesticide poisoning suicide rate fell from 6.3/100 000 in 1996 to 2.2/100 000 in 2014, a 65.1% (52.0 to 76.7%) decline. There was a modest simultaneous increase in hanging suicides [20.0% (8.4 to 36.9%) increase] but the overall incidence of unnatural deaths fell from 14.0/100 000 to 10.5/100 000 [25.0% (18.1 to 33.0%) decline]. There were 35 071 (95% CI 25 959 to 45 666) fewer pesticide suicides in 2001 to 2014 compared with the number predicted based on trends between 1996 to 2000. This reduction in rate of pesticide suicides occurred despite increased pesticide use and no change in admissions for pesticide poisoning, with no apparent influence on agricultural output. Conclusions Strengthening pesticide regulation and banning WHO Class I toxicity HHPs in Bangladesh were associated with major reductions in deaths and hospital mortality, without any apparent effect on agricultural output. Our data indicate that removing HHPs from agriculture can rapidly reduce suicides without imposing substantial agricultural costs. PMID:29024951

Agriculture-related trends in groundwater quality of the glacial deposits aquifer, central Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saad, D.A.

2008-01-01

Measuring and understanding trends in groundwater quality is necessary for determining whether changes in land-management practices have an effect on groundwater quality. This paper describes an approach that was used to measure and understand trends using data from two groundwater studies conducted in central Wisconsin as part of the USGS NAWQA program. One of the key components of this approach, determining the age of sampled groundwater, gave a temporal component to the snapshots of water quality that were obtained through synoptic-sampling efforts. This approach can be used at other locations where groundwater quality data are collected, groundwater age can be determined, and associated temporal data are available. Results of these studies indicate measured concentrations of nitrate and atrazine plus deethylatrazine were correlated to historical patterns of fertilizer and atrazine use. Concentrations of nitrate in groundwater have increased over time; concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine increased and then decreased. Concentrations of nitrate also were correlated to screen depth below the water level and concentrations of dissolved O2; concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine were correlated to dissolved O2 and annual precipitation. To measure trends in concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine, the data, collected over a near-decadal period, were adjusted to account for changes in laboratory-reporting levels and analytical recoveries. Only after accounting for these changes was it apparent that the median concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine decreased over the near-decadal interval between sampling efforts. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

The Interdependence of Lake Ice and Climate in Central North America. [correlation between freeze/than cycles of lakes and regional weather variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jelacic, A. J. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A comparison of lake freeze transition zone migration with the movement of large pressure centers reveals the following consistencies: (1) polar continental cyclones originate within and/or travel along the trend of the transition zone; (2) polar continental anticyclones fail to cross the transition zone; (3) polar outbreak anticyclones pass through the transition zone, apparently unaffected. In addition, storm centers associated with the transition zone undergo significant intensification manifest by a deepening of the pressure through and increased precipitation outside the zone.

Internal validation of STRmix™ - A multi laboratory response to PCAST.

PubMed

Bright, Jo-Anne; Richards, Rebecca; Kruijver, Maarten; Kelly, Hannah; McGovern, Catherine; Magee, Alan; McWhorter, Andrew; Ciecko, Anne; Peck, Brian; Baumgartner, Chase; Buettner, Christina; McWilliams, Scott; McKenna, Claire; Gallacher, Colin; Mallinder, Ben; Wright, Darren; Johnson, Deven; Catella, Dorothy; Lien, Eugene; O'Connor, Craig; Duncan, George; Bundy, Jason; Echard, Jillian; Lowe, John; Stewart, Joshua; Corrado, Kathleen; Gentile, Sheila; Kaplan, Marla; Hassler, Michelle; McDonald, Naomi; Hulme, Paul; Oefelein, Rachel H; Montpetit, Shawn; Strong, Melissa; Noël, Sarah; Malsom, Simon; Myers, Steven; Welti, Susan; Moretti, Tamyra; McMahon, Teresa; Grill, Thomas; Kalafut, Tim; Greer-Ritzheimer, MaryMargaret; Beamer, Vickie; Taylor, Duncan A; Buckleton, John S

2018-05-01

We report a large compilation of the internal validations of the probabilistic genotyping software STRmix™. Thirty one laboratories contributed data resulting in 2825 mixtures comprising three to six donors and a wide range of multiplex, equipment, mixture proportions and templates. Previously reported trends in the LR were confirmed including less discriminatory LRs occurring both for donors and non-donors at low template (for the donor in question) and at high contributor number. We were unable to isolate an effect of allelic sharing. Any apparent effect appears to be largely confounded with increased contributor number. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The uncertainties and causes of the recent changes in global evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Bo; Dai, Aiguo

2017-07-01

Recent studies have shown considerable changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) since the early 1980s, but the causes of these changes remain unclear. In this study, the relative contributions of external climate forcing and internal climate variability to the recent ET changes are examined. Three datasets of global terrestrial ET and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean ET are analyzed, respectively, to quantify the apparent and externally-forced ET changes, while the unforced ET variations are estimated as the apparent ET minus the forced component. Large discrepancies of the ET estimates, in terms of their trend, variability, and temperature- and precipitation-dependence, are found among the three datasets. Results show that the forced global-mean ET exhibits an upward trend of 0.08 mm day-1 century-1 from 1982 to 2010. The forced ET also contains considerable multi-year to decadal variations during the latter half of the 20th century that are caused by volcanic aerosols. The spatial patterns and interannual variations of the forced ET are more closely linked to precipitation than temperature. After removing the forced component, the global-mean ET shows a trend ranging from -0.07 to 0.06 mm day-1 century-1 during 1982-2010 with varying spatial patterns among the three datasets. Furthermore, linkages between the unforced ET and internal climate modes are examined. Variations in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are found to be consistently correlated with ET over many land areas among the ET datasets. The results suggest that there are large uncertainties in our current estimates of global terrestrial ET for the recent decades, and the greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol external forcings account for a large part of the apparent trend in global-mean terrestrial ET since 1982, but Pacific SST and other internal climate variability dominate recent ET variations and changes over most regions.

Inability of CMIP5 Climate Models to Simulate Recent Multi-decadal Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, S.; Delage, F.; Kociuba, G.; Wang, G.; Smith, I.

2017-12-01

Observed 15-year surface temperature trends beginning 1998 or later have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in models and the implications for global warming generally. Here we analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP5 climate models. All of the models simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This stark difference cannot be fully explained by observed, internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. We also show that CMIP5 models are not able to simulate the magnitude of the strengthening of the Walker Circulation over the past thirty years. Some of the reasons for these major shortcomings in the ability of models to simulate multi-decadal variability in the Pacific, and the impact these findings have on our confidence in global 21st century projections, will be discussed.

Contribution of Chlorophyll Fluorescence to the Apparent Reflectance of Vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, P. K. Entcheva; Middleton, E. M.; Kim, M. S.

2007-01-01

Current strategies for monitoring the physiologic status of terrestrial vegetation rely on remote sensing reflectance (R) measurements, whi ch provide estimates of relative vegetation vigor based primarily on chlorophyll content. Vegetation chlorophyll fluorescence (CF) offers a non-destructive alternative and a more direct approach for diagnosis of vegetation stress before a significant reduction in chlorophyll content has occurred. Thus, monitoring of vegetation vigor based on CF may allow earlier stress detection and more accurate carbon sequestra tion estimates, than is possible using R data alone. However, the observed apparent vegetation reflectance (Ra) in reality includes contrib utions from both the reflected and fluoresced radiation. The aim of t his study is to determine the relative R and CF fractions contributing to Ra from the vegetation in the red to near-infrared region of the spectrum. The practical objectives of the study are to: 1) evaluate t he relationship between CF and R at the foliar level for corn, soybean, maple; and 2) for corn, determine if the relationship established f or healthy (optimal N) vegetation changes under N defiiency. To obtai n generally applicable results, experimental measurements were conducted on unrelated crop and tree species (maple, soybean and corn), unde r controlled conditions and a gradient of inorganic N fertilization l evels. Optical R spectra and actively induced CF emissions were obtained on the same foliar samples, in conjunction with measurements of p hotosynthetic function, pigment levels, and C and N content. The comm on spectral trends or similarities were examined. On average, 10-20% of apparent R at 685 nm was actually due to CF. The spectral trends in steady and maximum F varied significantly, with Fs (especially red) showing higher ability for species and treatment separation. The relative contribution of ChF to R varied significantly among species, with maple emitting much higher F amounts, as compared to corn and soybea n. Fs individual red and far-red bands and their ratio exhibited consistent species separations. For corn, the relative CF fraction increased in concert with the nutrient stress levels from <2% for non-stressed foliage to >7% for severely nutrient deficient plants. F685s provide d optimal treatment separation. This study confirms the trends in F68 5sE740s associated with N deficiency and vegetation stress, established usmg single narrow band excitation.

Observed Trends in West Coast Atmospheric River Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, K. R.; Swain, D. L.; Barnes, E. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the changing characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in a warming climate is critical in light of their importance in generating precipitation and creating the potential for flood and geophysical hazards. Numerous changes to the characteristics of ARs under the influence of a changing climate have been documented or hypothesized; one simple hypothesis is that AR precipitation will occur at increasingly warm temperatures, potentially altering the critical rain/snow balance in snowpack-dependent watersheds and causing precipitation at higher elevations to fall as rain rather than snow. Not only would warmer, primarily rain-producing ARs greatly affect snow accumulation, but they might also increase the intensity of runoff, the potential for flooding, and the occurrence of rain-on-snow events. Since the West Coast of North America relies heavily on ARs as a source of precipitation and snowpack accumulation, these regions may be profoundly affected by changes in AR temperatures and associated impacts. Using a catalog of ARs encompassing 1979-2014 and ERA-Interim reanalysis, we assess whether detectable trends exist in cool season AR temperatures over the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. We define AR temperature by the mean temperature of the air mass between 1000 hPa and 750 hPa, and compare AR temperature trends to background temperature trends over the same period. We find overall AR warming over this period and particularly robust warming in March ARs coincident with an apparent poleward shift in March AR frequency. Further analysis suggests that warmer ARs have higher rates of warming than cooler ARs. AR temperature trends generally scale with background temperature trends, although some regions exhibit a near one-to-one relationship while others are largely uncorrelated. The observed warming of ARs making landfall on the West Coast may have potentially significant implications for rain vs. snow at higher elevations, the rain/snow balance, and rain-on-snow flood hazards (particularly in March).

Population trends, survival, and sampling methodologies for a population of Rana draytonii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A.W.; Halstead, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Estimating population trends provides valuable information for resource managers, but monitoring programs face trade-offs between the quality and quantity of information gained and the number of sites surveyed. We compared the effectiveness of monitoring techniques for estimating population trends of Rana draytonii (California Red-legged Frog) at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, over a 13-yr period. Our primary goals were to: 1) estimate trends for a focal pond at Point Reyes National Seashore, and 2) evaluate whether egg mass counts could reliably estimate an index of abundance relative to more-intensive capture–mark–recapture methods. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) surveys of males indicated a stable population from 2005 to 2009, despite low annual apparent survival (26.3%). Egg mass counts from 2000 to 2012 indicated that despite some large fluctuations, the breeding female population was generally stable or increasing, with annual abundance varying between 26 and 130 individuals. Minor modifications to egg mass counts, such as marking egg masses, can allow estimation of egg mass detection probabilities necessary to convert counts to abundance estimates, even when closure of egg mass abundance cannot be assumed within a breeding season. High egg mass detection probabilities (mean per-survey detection probability = 0.98 [0.89–0.99]) indicate that egg mass surveys can be an efficient and reliable method for monitoring population trends of federally threatened R. draytonii. Combining egg mass surveys to estimate trends at many sites with CMR methods to evaluate factors affecting adult survival at focal populations is likely a profitable path forward to enhance understanding and conservation of R. draytonii.

Upper ocean O2 trends: 1958-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Takamitsu; Minobe, Shoshiro; Long, Matthew C.; Deutsch, Curtis

2017-05-01

Historic observations of dissolved oxygen (O2) in the ocean are analyzed to quantify multidecadal trends and variability from 1958 to 2015. Additional quality control is applied, and the resultant oxygen anomaly field is used to quantify upper ocean O2 trends at global and hemispheric scales. A widespread negative O2 trend is beginning to emerge from the envelope of interannual variability. Ocean reanalysis data are used to evaluate relationships with changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and oxygen solubility (O2,sat). Global O2 decline is evident after the 1980s, accompanied by an increase in global OHC. The global upper ocean O2 inventory (0-1000 m) changed at the rate of -243 ± 124 T mol O2 per decade. Further, the O2 inventory is negatively correlated with the OHC (r = -0.86; 0-1000 m) and the regression coefficient of O2 to OHC is approximately -8.2 ± 0.66 nmol O2 J-1, on the same order of magnitude as the simulated O2-heat relationship typically found in ocean climate models. Variability and trends in the observed upper ocean O2 concentration are dominated by the apparent oxygen utilization component with relatively small contributions from O2,sat. This indicates that changing ocean circulation, mixing, and/or biochemical processes, rather than the direct thermally induced solubility effects, are the primary drivers for the observed O2 changes. The spatial patterns of the multidecadal trend include regions of enhanced ocean deoxygenation including the subpolar North Pacific, eastern boundary upwelling systems, and tropical oxygen minimum zones. Further studies are warranted to understand and attribute the global O2 trends and their regional expressions.

Effects of late-stage nitrogen fertilizer application on the starch structure and cooking quality of rice.

PubMed

Cao, XianMei; Sun, HuiYan; Wang, ChunGe; Ren, XiaoJia; Liu, HongFei; Zhang, ZuJian

2018-04-01

With the rapid development of modern agriculture, high-quality rice production and consumption has become the current urgent demand for the development of rice production. In this paper, the effects of late-stage nitrogen fertilizer application on rice quality were studied under the same genetic background. Wx near-isogenic lines were used as test materials to study the starch composition, amylopectin structure and cooking quality of rice. Results showed that rice amylose content and gel consistency significantly differed when different Wx genes were tranformed into waxy rice. The law of apparent amylose content in rice is Wx a > Wx in > Wx b > wx at the same nitrogen level, while the trend of gel consistency was opposite to that of apparent amylose content, presenting obvious characteristics of Indica and Japonica varieties. As the amount of fertilizer application increased, apparent amylose content increased, gel consistency decreased, breakdown and peak viscosities dropped and setback viscosity and peak time increased. Moreover, the cooking quality of rice significantly decreased with the use of nitrogen fertilizer, especially under low-level nitrogen fertilizer application. Amylopectin structure varied significantly in different genotypes of the Wx gene, and the degree of branching was as follows: wx > Wx b > Wx in > Wx a . This result indicated that the closer to Indica rice, the fewer short chains of amylopectin. Starch crystallinity and swelling potential were negatively correlated with amylose content but significantly positively correlated with amylopectin branching degree, decreasing with the increase of late-stage nitrogen fertilization. Late-stage nitrogen fertilization reduced the cooking quality of rice by increasing amylose content and reducing amylopectin branching degree, which decreased starch crystallinity and aggravated pasting properties. Obviously, controlling late nitrogen application is essential to optimize rice quality. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

Deaths from stroke in US young adults, 1989-2009.

PubMed

Poisson, Sharon N; Glidden, David; Johnston, S Claiborne; Fullerton, Heather J

2014-12-02

To determine what the trends in stroke mortality have been over 2 decades in young adults. In this cohort study, we analyzed death certificate data for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke (intracerebral hemorrhage [ICH] and subarachnoid hemorrhage [SAH]) in adults aged 20-44 in the United States for 1989 through 2009, covering approximately 2.2 billion person-years. Poisson regression was used to calculate and compare time trend data between groups and to compare trends in young adults to those in adults over age 45. Mortality from stroke in young adults declined by 35% over the study period, with reductions in all 3 stroke subtypes (ischemic stroke decreased by 15%, ICH by 47%, and SAH by 50%). Black race was a risk factor for all 3 stroke subtypes (relative risk 2.4 for ischemic stroke, 4.0 for ICH, and 2.1 for SAH), but declines in all stroke subtypes were more dramatic in black compared to white participants (p < 0.001 for all stroke subtypes). Although hospitalizations for stroke in young patients have been increasing, the apparent decrease in mortality rates and in racial disparities suggests that recognition and treatment in this group may be improving. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

Deaths from stroke in US young adults, 1989–2009

PubMed Central

Glidden, David; Johnston, S. Claiborne; Fullerton, Heather J.

2014-01-01

Objective: To determine what the trends in stroke mortality have been over 2 decades in young adults. Methods: In this cohort study, we analyzed death certificate data for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke (intracerebral hemorrhage [ICH] and subarachnoid hemorrhage [SAH]) in adults aged 20–44 in the United States for 1989 through 2009, covering approximately 2.2 billion person-years. Poisson regression was used to calculate and compare time trend data between groups and to compare trends in young adults to those in adults over age 45. Results: Mortality from stroke in young adults declined by 35% over the study period, with reductions in all 3 stroke subtypes (ischemic stroke decreased by 15%, ICH by 47%, and SAH by 50%). Black race was a risk factor for all 3 stroke subtypes (relative risk 2.4 for ischemic stroke, 4.0 for ICH, and 2.1 for SAH), but declines in all stroke subtypes were more dramatic in black compared to white participants (p < 0.001 for all stroke subtypes). Conclusions: Although hospitalizations for stroke in young patients have been increasing, the apparent decrease in mortality rates and in racial disparities suggests that recognition and treatment in this group may be improving. PMID:25361783

[Patterns of violent death in Bogotá, 1997-2003].

PubMed

Sánchez, Ricardo; Tejada, Paola; Martínez, Jorge

2005-01-01

To describe patterns of violent deaths in Bogotá between 1997 and 2003. Descriptive methods for analyzing time series were applied to a group of 84 observations corresponding to mortality due to violent causes during seven years in Bogotá. Box-Jenkins methodology was used to generate forecasts for 12 months. Primary and secondary sources of information: Instituto de Medicina Legal Bogotá, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, Colombia. For the 4 types of violent deaths analyzed (homicide, transit accident, suicide and others accidents), a decreasing tendency in the number of deaths during the analyzed period was observed, more evident in homicide and transit accidents. In all cases, except in the group of suicides, evidence of seasonality, with an increase in frequency of deaths in December, has been observed. The forecasting suggests persistence of decreasing trends, more apparent in the series of homicide and transit accidents. In Bogotá, the mortality caused by violence has presented a decreasing trend. Stabilization of trend is observed in cases of suicides and accidental deaths. Further study is required to characterize and evaluate the contribution of different factors in this dynamic of violent death.

Overweight and Obesity Epidemic in Developing Countries: A Problem with Diet, Physical Activity, or Socioeconomic Status?

PubMed Central

Bhurosy, Trishnee; Jeewon, Rajesh

2014-01-01

Obesity is a significant public health concern affecting more than half a billion people worldwide. Obesity rise is not only limited to developed countries, but to developing nations as well. This paper aims to compare the mean body mass index trends in the World Health Organisation- (WHO-) categorised regions since 1980 to 2008 and secondly to appraise how socioeconomic disparities can lead to differences in obesity and physical activity level across developing nations. Taking into account past and current BMI trends, it is anticipated that obesity will continue to take a significant ascent, as observed by the sharp increase from 1999 to 2008. Gender differences in BMI will continue to be as apparent, that is, women showing a higher BMI trend than men. In the coming years, the maximum mean BMI in more developed countries might be exceeded by those in less developed ones. Rather than focusing on obesity at the individual level, the immediate environment of the obese individual to broader socioeconomic contexts should be targeted. Most importantly, incentives at several organisational levels, the media, and educational institutions along with changes in food policies will need to be provided to low-income populations. PMID:25379554

Overweight and obesity epidemic in developing countries: a problem with diet, physical activity, or socioeconomic status?

PubMed

Bhurosy, Trishnee; Jeewon, Rajesh

2014-01-01

Obesity is a significant public health concern affecting more than half a billion people worldwide. Obesity rise is not only limited to developed countries, but to developing nations as well. This paper aims to compare the mean body mass index trends in the World Health Organisation- (WHO-) categorised regions since 1980 to 2008 and secondly to appraise how socioeconomic disparities can lead to differences in obesity and physical activity level across developing nations. Taking into account past and current BMI trends, it is anticipated that obesity will continue to take a significant ascent, as observed by the sharp increase from 1999 to 2008. Gender differences in BMI will continue to be as apparent, that is, women showing a higher BMI trend than men. In the coming years, the maximum mean BMI in more developed countries might be exceeded by those in less developed ones. Rather than focusing on obesity at the individual level, the immediate environment of the obese individual to broader socioeconomic contexts should be targeted. Most importantly, incentives at several organisational levels, the media, and educational institutions along with changes in food policies will need to be provided to low-income populations.

Trends and disparities in coronary heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases in the United States: findings of the national conference on cardiovascular disease prevention.

PubMed

Cooper, R; Cutler, J; Desvigne-Nickens, P; Fortmann, S P; Friedman, L; Havlik, R; Hogelin, G; Marler, J; McGovern, P; Morosco, G; Mosca, L; Pearson, T; Stamler, J; Stryer, D; Thom, T

2000-12-19

A workshop was held September 27 through 29, 1999, to address issues relating to national trends in mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular diseases; the apparent slowing of declines in mortality from cardiovascular diseases; levels and trends in risk factors for cardiovascular diseases; disparities in cardiovascular diseases by race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography; trends in cardiovascular disease preventive and treatment services; and strategies for efforts to reduce cardiovascular diseases overall and to reduce disparities among subpopulations. The conference concluded that coronary heart disease mortality is still declining in the United States as a whole, although perhaps at a slower rate than in the 1980s; that stroke mortality rates have declined little, if at all, since 1990; and that there are striking differences in cardiovascular death rates by race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography. Trends in risk factors are consistent with a slowing of the decline in mortality; there has been little recent progress in risk factors such as smoking, physical inactivity, and hypertension control. There are increasing levels of obesity and type 2 diabetes, with major differences among subpopulations. There is considerable activity in population-wide prevention, primary prevention for higher risk people, and secondary prevention, but wide disparities exist among groups on the basis of socioeconomic status and geography, pointing to major gaps in efforts to use available, proven approaches to control cardiovascular diseases. Recommendations for strategies to attain the year 2010 health objectives were made.

Salinity Trends within the Upper Layers of the Subpolar North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesdal, J. E.; Abernathey, R.; Goes, J. I.; Gordon, A. L.; Haine, T. W. N.

2017-12-01

Examination of a range of salinity products collectively suggest widespread freshening of the North Atlantic from the mid-2000 to the present. Monthly salinity fields reveal negative trends that differ in magnitude and significance between western and eastern regions of the North Atlantic. These differences can be attributed to the large negative interannual excursions in salinity in the western subpolar gyre and the Labrador Sea, which are not apparent in the central or eastern subpolar gyre. This study demonstrates that temporal trends in salinity in the northwest (including the Labrador Sea) are subject to mechanisms that are distinct from those responsible for the salinity trends in central and eastern North Atlantic. In the western subpolar gyre a negative correlation between near surface salinity and the circulation strength of the subpolar gyre suggests that negative salinity anomalies are connected to an intensification of the subpolar gyre, which is causing increased flux of freshwater from the East Greenland Current and subsequent transport into the Labrador Sea during the melting season. Analyses of sea surface wind fields suggest that the strength of the subpolar gyre is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation-driven changes in wind stress curl in the eastern subpolar gyre. If this trend of decreasing salinity continues, it has the potential to enhance water column stratification, reduce vertical fluxes of nutrients and cause a decline in biological production and carbon export in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Analysis of trends in water-quality data for water conservation area 3A, the Everglades, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattraw, H.C.; Scheidt, D.J.; Federico, A.C.

1987-01-01

Rainfall and water quality data bases from the South Florida Water Management District were used to evaluate water quality trends at 10 locations near or in Water Conservation Area 3A in The Everglades. The Seasonal Kendall test was applied to specific conductance, orthophosphate-phosphorus, nitrate-nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total nitrogen regression residuals for the period 1978-82. Residuals of orthophosphate and nitrate quadratic models, based on antecedent 7-day rainfall at inflow gate S-11B, were the only two constituent-structure pairs that showed apparent significant (p < 0.05) increases in constituent concentrations. Elimination of regression models with distinct residual patterns and data outlines resulted in 17 statistically significant station water quality combinations for trend analysis. No water quality trends were observed. The 1979 Memorandum of Agreement outlining the water quality monitoring program between the Everglades National Park and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers stressed collection four times a year at three stations, and extensive coverage of water quality properties. Trend analysis and other rigorous statistical evaluation programs are better suited to data monitoring programs that include more frequent sampling and that are organized in a water quality data management system. Pronounced areal differences in water quality suggest that a water quality monitoring system for Shark River Slough in Everglades National Park include collection locations near the source of inflow to Water Conservation Area 3A. (Author 's abstract)

Effects of iron overload in a rat nutritional model of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Kirsch, Richard; Sijtsema, Helene P; Tlali, Mpho; Marais, Adrian D; Hall, Pauline de la M

2006-12-01

This study sought to determine whether excess hepatic iron potentiates liver injury in the methionine choline-deficient (MCD) model of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Iron-loaded rats were fed either MCD or control diets [MCD diet plus choline bitartrate (2 g/kg) and DL-methionine (3 g/kg)] for 4 and 12 weeks, after which liver pathology, hepatic iron, triglyceride, lipid peroxidation products and hydroxyproline (HYP) levels and serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels were evaluated. Iron supplementation in MCD animals resulted in histologic evidence of hepatic iron overload at 4 and 12 weeks and a 14-fold increase in hepatic iron concentration at 12 weeks (P < 0.001). Iron supplementation in these animals was associated with increased lobular necroinflammation at 4 weeks (P < 0.02) and decreased hepatic steatosis (P < 0.01), hepatic triglyceride levels (P < 0.01), hepatic-conjugated dienes (CD; P < 0.02) and serum ALT levels (P < 0.002) at 12 weeks. Reduced hepatic steatosis (P < 0.005) and CD (P < 0.01) were apparent by 4 weeks. Iron supplementation was associated with a trend towards increased perivenular fibrosis not hepatic HYP content. Hepatic iron overload in the MCD model of NAFLD is associated with decreased hepatic lipid, decreased early lipid peroxidation products, increased necroinflammation and a trend towards increased perivenular fibrosis.

Examining supply changes in Australia's cocaine market.

PubMed

Hughes, Caitlin E; Chalmers, Jenny; Bright, David A; Matthew-Simmons, Francis; Sindicich, Natasha

2012-05-01

Media attention to cocaine use and supply has increased following some of the largest cocaine seizures in Australia's history. Whether there has been an expansion in supply remains unclear. This paper examines the evidence behind assertions of increased supply in Australia and the scale and nature of any apparent increase, using proxy indicators of cocaine importation, distribution and use. Eight proxies of cocaine importation, distribution and use were adopted, including amount of importation, mode of importation and supply flows to Australia. Each proxy indicator was sourced using publicly available and Australia-wide data, including information on the total weight of border seizures, mode of detection and country of embarkation of individual seizures. Data permitting, trends were examined for up to a 12 year period (1997-1998 to 2009-2010). Since 2006-2007 there was evidence of increased cocaine importation, albeit less than between 1998-1999 and 2001-2002. There were further signs that the 2006-2007 expansion coincided with a diversification of trafficking routes to and through Australia (beyond the traditional site of entry-Sydney) and shifts in the geographic distribution of use. The congruity between indicators suggests that there has been a recent expansion in cocaine supply to and distribution within Australia, but that the more notable shift has concerned the nature of supply, with an apparent growth in importation and distribution beyond New South Wales. The diversification of cocaine supply routes may increase risks of market entrenchment and organised crime throughout Australia. © 2011 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Trends in teen driver licensure, driving patterns and crash involvement in the United States, 2006-2015.

PubMed

Shults, Ruth A; Williams, Allan F

2017-09-01

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey provides nationally-representative annual estimates of licensure and driving patterns among U.S. teens. A previous study using MTF data reported substantial declines in the proportion of high school seniors that were licensed to drive and increases in the proportion of nondrivers following the recent U.S. economic recession. To explore whether licensure and driving patterns among U.S. high school seniors have rebounded in the post-recession years, we analyzed MTF licensure and driving data for the decade of 2006-2015. We also examined trends in teen driver involvement in fatal and nonfatal injury crashes for that decade using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System, respectively. During 2006-2015, the proportion of high school seniors that reported having a driver's license declined by 9 percentage points (11%) from 81% to 72% and the proportion that did not drive during an average week increased by 8 percentage points (44%) from 18% to 26%. The annual proportion of black seniors that did not drive was consistently greater than twice the proportion of nondriving white seniors. Overall during the decade, 17- and 18-year-old drivers experienced large declines in fatal and nonfatal injury crashes, although crashes increased in both 2014 and 2015. The MTF data indicate that licensure and driving patterns among U.S. high school seniors have not rebounded since the economic recession. The recession had marked negative effects on teen employment opportunities, which likely influenced teen driving patterns. Possible explanations for the apparent discrepancies between the MTF data and the 2014 and 2015 increases in crashes are explored. MTF will continue to be an important resource for clarifying teen driving trends in relation to crash trends and informing strategies to improve teen driver safety. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Apparent climatically induced increase of tree mortality rates in a temperate forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2007-01-01

We provide a first detailed analysis of long-term, annual-resolution demographic trends in a temperate forest. After tracking the fates of 21 338 trees in a network of old-growth forest plots in the Sierra Nevada of California, we found that mortality rate, but not the recruitment rate, increased significantly over the 22 years of measurement (1983-2004). Mortality rates increased in both of two dominant taxonomic groups (Abies and Pinus) and in different forest types (different elevational zones). The increase in overall mortality rate resulted from an increase in tree deaths attributed to stress and biotic causes, and coincided with a temperature-driven increase in an index of drought. Our findings suggest that these forests (and by implication, other water-limited forests) may be sensitive to temperature-driven drought stress, and may be poised for die-back if future climates continue to feature rising temperatures without compensating increases in precipitation. ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Disentangling nutrient concentrations trends in transfer pathways of agricultural watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellander, P. E.; Jordan, P.

2017-12-01

Targeted schemes designed to attenuate agricultural pollution to water are needed to reach goals of sustainable food production. Such approaches require insight into temporal and spatial variability in the most representative flows and active pollution transfer pathways. Interpreting changes in total stream flow can be misleading since some changes may only be apparent in specific pathways. The aim of this study was to investigate changing land use pressures on water quality. The objectives were to assess intra-annual and inter-annual changes in phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) concentrations and loads in apportioned pathways. Pathways were separated using hydrograph and loadograph separation techniques on a seven-year dataset of sub-hourly river discharge and concentrations of NO3-N, reactive P and total P in two intensively managed agricultural watersheds of contrasting hydrology in Ireland. Active transfer pathways were dictated by soil drainage. There were intra-annual variability in both P and N concentrations in different pathways and loads, and these had the largest influence of all-year baseflow (BF) concentrations and summer quickflow (QF) concentrations. Nutrient loss responded to seasonality in the river discharge in all pathways in both watersheds and was mostly transport limited. In both watersheds there were inter-annual trends in P concentration in some pathways and seasons that did not correspond to the trend of total river P concentration. The response in stream water quality to management, mitigation measures and changes in weather may be hidden by counteracting responses in different pathways. The hydrology had a major impact on seasonal changes in N and P loss. By apportioning different transfer pathways more information on the temporal and site-specific nature of nutrient transfer was provided. BF and QF pathways largely contributed to the river P concentrations in summer while all pathways contributed to the P and N loads in wintertime. The data indicated that increasing trends in river P concentrations were mostly linked to trends in BF concentration in both catchment types. This may be explained by increased point source influence, increased vertical transfer through increased soil P loading, or decreased stream bed attenuation. Each will require different policy considerations.

Strengthening of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency Associated with the Recent Climate Hiatus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watanabe, Masahiro; Kamae, Youichi; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Oka, Akira; Sato, Makiko; Ishii, Masayoshi; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide

2013-01-01

The rate of increase of global-mean surface air temperature (SAT(sub g)) has apparently slowed during the last decade. We investigated the extent to which state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) can capture this hiatus period by using multimodel ensembles of historical climate simulations. While the SAT(sub g) linear trend for the last decade is not captured by their ensemble means regardless of differences in model generation and external forcing, it is barely represented by an 11-member ensemble of a GCM, suggesting an internal origin of the hiatus associated with active heat uptake by the oceans. Besides, we found opposite changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency (k), weakening in models and strengthening in nature, which explain why the models tend to overestimate the SAT(sub g) trend. The weakening of k commonly found in GCMs seems to be an inevitable response of the climate system to global warming, suggesting the recovery from hiatus in coming decades.

Exponential evolution: implications for intelligent extraterrestrial life.

PubMed

Russell, D A

1983-01-01

Some measures of biologic complexity, including maximal levels of brain development, are exponential functions of time through intervals of 10(6) to 10(9) yrs. Biological interactions apparently stimulate evolution but physical conditions determine the time required to achieve a given level of complexity. Trends in brain evolution suggest that other organisms could attain human levels within approximately 10(7) yrs. The number (N) and longevity (L) terms in appropriate modifications of the Drake Equation, together with trends in the evolution of biological complexity on Earth, could provide rough estimates of the prevalence of life forms at specified levels of complexity within the Galaxy. If life occurs throughout the cosmos, exponential evolutionary processes imply that higher intelligence will soon (10(9) yrs) become more prevalent than it now is. Changes in the physical universe become less rapid as time increases from the Big Bang. Changes in biological complexity may be most rapid at such later times. This lends a unique and symmetrical importance to early and late universal times.

The role of grain size in He bubble formation: Implications for swelling resistance

DOE PAGES

El-Atwani, Osman; Nathaniel, II, James E.; Leff, Asher C.; ...

2016-12-07

Here, nanocrystalline metals are postulated as radiation resistant materials due to their high defect and particle (e.g. Helium) sink density. Here, the performance of nanocrystalline iron films is investigated in-situ in a transmission electron microscope (TEM) using He irradiation at 700 K. Automated crystal orientation mapping is used in concert with in-situ TEM to explore the role of grain orientation and grain boundary character on bubble density trends. Bubble density as a function of three key grain size regimes is demonstrated. While the overall trend revealed an increase in bubble density up to a saturation value, grains with areas rangingmore » from 3000 to 7500 nm 2 show a scattered distribution. An extrapolated swelling resistance based on bubble size and areal density indicated that grains with sizes less than 2000 nm 2 possess the greatest apparent resistance. Moreover, denuded zones are found to be independent of grain size, grain orientation, and grain boundary misorientation angle.« less

Pauling Electronegativity On/Off Effects Assessed by 13 C and 29 Si NMR Spectroscopic Analysis.

PubMed

Benedetti, Michele; De Castro, Federica; Fanizzi, Francesco P

2017-11-27

In carbon and silicon tetrahalide compounds, the experimental 13 C and 29 Si NMR chemical-shift values are known to increase or decrease on increasing the overall sum of the ionic radii of the bonded halides Σ(r h ) (normal and inverse halogen dependence (NHD and IHD, respectively)). Herein, we extrapolate the main factors responsible for such NMR chemical shifts. Intriguingly, we found a characteristic value for the overall sum of the Pauling electronegativities of the bonded halides Σ(χ h ), which works as a triggering factor to determine the transition from the NHD to IHD. Below this Σ(χ h ) value, the chemical shift of the central atom was strictly related to only the Σ(r h ) value, thus producing a NHD trend. Conversely, above this value, the chemical shift of the central atom was dependent on both the Σ(r h ) and Σ(χ h ) values, thus producing a IHD trend. A simple model, in which the effect of the Σ(χ h ) value on 13 C and 29 Si NMR chemical shifts is related to an apparent increase in the Σ(r h ) value, is deduced. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Comparative audit of clinical research in pediatric neurology.

PubMed

Al-Futaisi, Amna; Shevell, Michael

2004-11-01

Clinical research involves direct observation or data collection on human subjects. This study was conducted to evaluate the profile of pediatric neurology clinical research over a decade. Trends in pediatric neurology clinical research were documented through a systematic comparative review of articles published in selected journals. Eleven journals (five pediatric neurology, three general neurology, three general pediatrics) were systematically reviewed for articles involving a majority of human subjects less than 18 years of age for the years 1990 and 2000. Three hundred thirty-five clinical research articles in pediatric neurology were identified in the 11 journals for 1990 and 398 for 2000, a 19% increase. A statistically significant increase in analytic design (21.8% vs 39.5%; P = .01), statistical support (6% vs 16.6%; P < .0001), and multidisciplinary team (69.9% vs 87%; P = .003) was observed. In terms of specific study design, a significant decline in case reports (34.3% vs 10.3%; P < .0001) and an increase in case-control studies (11.3% vs 22.9%; P = .02) were evident over the 10-year interval. This comparative audit revealed that there has been a discernible change in the methodology profile of clinical research in child neurology over a decade. Trends apparently suggest a more rigorous approach to study design and investigation in this field.

Incidence of multiple sclerosis among European Economic Area populations, 1985-2009: the framework for monitoring

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A debate surrounding multiple sclerosis epidemiology has centred on time-related incidence increases and the need of monitoring. The purpose of this study is to reassess multiple sclerosis incidence in the European Economic Area. Methods We conducted a systematic review of literature from 1965 onwards and integrated elements of original research, including requested or completed data by surveys authors and specific analyses. Results The review of 5323 documents yielded ten studies for age- and sex-specific analyses, and 21 studies for time-trend analysis of single data sets. After 1985, the incidence of multiple sclerosis ranged from 1.12 to 6.96 per 100,000 population, was higher in females, tripled with latitude, and doubled with study midpoint year. The north registered increasing trends from the 1960s and 1970s, with a historic drop in the Faroe Islands, and fairly stable data in the period 1980-2000; incidence rose in Italian and French populations in the period 1970-2000, in Evros (Greece) in the 1980s, and in the French West Indies in around 2000. Conclusions We conclude that the increase in multiple sclerosis incidence is only apparent, and that it is not specific to women. Monitoring of multiple sclerosis incidence might be appropriate for the European Economic Area. PMID:23758972

Factors affecting long-term trends in surface-water quality in the Gwynns Falls watershed, Baltimore City and County, Maryland, 1998–2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Majcher, Emily H.; Woytowitz, Ellen L.; Reisinger, Alexander J.; Groffman, Peter M.

2018-03-30

Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study.Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward trends, and total phosphorus and chloride show upward trends.Sanitary sewer overflows (gray infrastructure) and best management practices (green infrastructure) were identified as factors affecting water-quality change. The duration of sanitary sewer overflows was positively correlated with annual loads of nutrients and bacteria, and the drainage area of best management practices was negatively correlated with annual loads of phosphate and sulfate. Results of the study indicate that continued investments in gray and green infrastructure are necessary for urban water-quality improvement. Although this outcome is not unexpected, long-term datasets such as the one used in this study, allow the effects of gray and green infrastructures to be quantified.Results of this study have implications for the Gwynns Falls watershed and its residents and Baltimore City and County managers. Moreover, outcomes are relevant to other watersheds in the metropolitan region that do not have the same long-term dataset. Further, this study has established a framework for ongoing statistical analysis of primary factors affecting urban water-quality trends as regulatory programs mature.

Trends in oral drug bioavailability following bariatric surgery: examining the variable extent of impact on exposure of different drug classes

PubMed Central

Darwich, Adam S; Henderson, Kathryn; Burgin, Angela; Ward, Nicola; Whittam, Janet; Ammori, Basil J; Ashcroft, Darren M; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin

2012-01-01

AIMS To identify the most commonly prescribed drugs in a bariatric surgery population and to assess existing evidence regarding trends in oral drug bioavailability post bariatric surgery. METHODS A retrospective audit was undertaken to document commonly prescribed drugs amongst patients undergoing bariatric surgery in an NHS hospital in the UK and to assess practice for drug administration following bariatric surgery. The available literature was examined for trends relating to drug permeability and solubility with regards to the Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS) and main route of elimination. RESULTS No significant difference in the ‘post/pre surgery oral drug exposure ratio’ (ppR) was apparent between BCS class I to IV drugs, with regards to dose number (Do) or main route of elimination. Drugs classified as ‘solubility limited’ displayed an overall reduction as compared with ‘freely soluble’ compounds, as well as an unaltered and increased ppR. CONCLUSION Clinical studies establishing guidelines for commonly prescribed drugs, and the monitoring of drugs exhibiting a narrow therapeutic window or without a readily assessed clinical endpoint, are warranted. Using mechanistically based pharmacokinetic modelling for simulating the multivariate nature of changes in drug exposure may serve as a useful tool in the further understanding of postoperative trends in oral drug exposure and in developing practical clinical guidance. PMID:22463107

Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Youngflesh, Casey; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Ainley, David G.; Ballard, Grant; Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Dugger, Catherine; Emmerson, Loiuse M.; Fraser, William R.; Hinke, Jefferson T.; Lyver, Phil O'B.; Olmastroni, Silvia; Southwell, Colin J.; Trivelpiece, Susan G.; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z.; Lynch, Heather J.

2017-01-01

Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.

Variability of nutrients and carbon dioxide in the Antarctic Intermediate Water between 1990 and 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panassa, Essowè; Santana-Casiano, J. Magdalena; González-Dávila, Melchor; Hoppema, Mario; van Heuven, Steven M. A. C.; Völker, Christoph; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter; Hauck, Judith

2018-03-01

Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) formation constitutes an important mechanism for the export of macronutrients out of the Southern Ocean that fuels primary production in low latitudes. We used quality-controlled gridded data from five hydrographic cruises between 1990 and 2014 to examine decadal variability in nutrients and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the AAIW (neutral density range 27 < γ n < 27.4) along the Prime Meridian. Significant positive trends were found in DIC (0.70 ± 0.4 μmol kg- 1 year- 1) and nitrate (0.08 ± 0.06 μ mol kg- 1 year- 1) along with decreasing trends in temperature (- 0.015 ± 0.01∘C year- 1) and salinity (- 0.003 ± 0.002 year- 1) in the AAIW. Accompanying this is an increase in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU, 0.16 ± 0.07 μ mol kg- 1 year- 1). We estimated that 75% of the DIC change has an anthropogenic origin. The remainder of the trends support a scenario of a strengthening of the upper-ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean in response to the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode. A decrease in net primary productivity (more nutrients unutilized) in the source waters of the AAIW could have contributed as well but cannot fully explain all observed changes.

Providing Better University Personnel through Job Sharing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hutton, Clifford E.; McFarlin, Joy Simon

1982-01-01

Universities could benefit by offering more flexible part-time job opportunities such as job-sharing, following an apparent national trend in accommodating social and economic needs. Institutions have many options in scheduling and allocating tasks. Possible benefits include improved employee attitude and productivity. (MSE)

Recent changes and relations among drought, vegetation and wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean: The case of Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turco, Marco; Levin, Noam; Tessler, Naama; Saaroni, Hadas

2017-04-01

On-going changes in drought, vegetation and wildfires in Israel provide a key example of possible future evolution in transition areas at the border between Mediterranean and arid climates. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that drought conditions in Israel, representing the eastern Mediterranean, have increased during the period 1980-2014. Drought conditions were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). A 30-year series (1982-2011) of monthly Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) indicates generally positive trends in winter and spring and negative ones in summer and autumn, except in the transition zone between the southern Negev desert and the Mediterranean climate region, where a statistically significant negative trend in all seasons was found. Available ground observations suggest that fire activity has decreased during the period 1987-2011. Apparent year-to-year oscillations are superposed onto these long-term trends. We show that inter-annual variability of summer fires is related to antecedent wet conditions and to above normal vegetation conditions. These relationships suggest the summer fires in Israel are mainly limited by fuel availability rather than by fuel flammability. On the other hand, the year-to-year variations of spring and autumn fires are significantly related with drought indices. Thus, the increase of drought conditions together with climate projections for further warming and drying in this region, point at a potential increase of fire risk in the intermediate seasons.

Stability analysis and trend study of a balloon tethered in a wind, with experimental comparisons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Redd, L. T.; Bland, S. R.; Bennett, R. M.

1973-01-01

A stability analysis and trend study for a balloon tethered in a steady wind are presented. The linearized, stability-derivative type analysis includes balloon aerodynamics, buoyancy, mass (including apparent mass), and static forces resulting from the tether cable. The analysis has been applied to a balloon 7.64 m in length, and the results are compared with those from tow tests of this balloon. This comparison shows that the analysis gives reasonable predictions for the damping, frequencies, modes of motion, and stability boundaries exhibited by the balloon. A trend study for the 7.64-m balloon was made to illustrate how the stability boundaries are affected by changes in individual stability parameters. The trends indicated in this study may also be applicable to many other tethered-balloon systems.

Top-down and bottom-up factors affecting seabird population trends in the California current system (1985-2006)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ainley, David G.; David Hyrenbach, K.

2010-03-01

To characterize the environmental factors affecting seabird population trends in the central portion of the California current system (CCS), we analyzed standardized vessel-based surveys collected during the late spring (May-June) upwelling season over 22 yr (1985-2006). We tested the working hypothesis that population trends are related to species-specific foraging ecology, and predicted that temporal variation in population size should be most extreme in diving species with higher energy expenditure during foraging. We related variation in individual species abundance (number km -2) to seasonally lagged (late winter, early spring, late spring) and concurrent ocean conditions, and to long-term trends (using a proxy variable: year) during a multi-decadal period of major fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). We considered both remote (Multivariate ENSO Index, PDO) and local (coastal upwelling indices and sea-surface temperature) environmental variables as proxies for ocean productivity and prey availability. We also related seabird trends to those of potentially major trophic competitors, humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae) and blue ( Balaenoptera musculus) whales, which increased in number 4-5-fold midway during our study. Cyclical oscillations in seabird abundance were apparent in the black-footed albatross ( Phoebastria nigripes), and decreasing trends were documented for ashy storm-petrel ( Oceanodroma homochroa), pigeon guillemot ( Cepphus columbus), rhinoceros auklet ( Cerorhinca monocerata), Cassin’s auklet ( Ptychoramphus aleuticus), and western gull ( Larus occidentalis); the sooty shearwater ( Puffinus griseus), exhibited a marked decline before signs of recovery at the end of the study period. The abundance of nine other focal species varied with ocean conditions, but without decadal or long-term trends. Six of these species have the largest global populations in the CCS, and four are highly energetic, diving foragers. Furthermore, three of the diving species trends were negatively correlated with the abundance of humpback whales in the study area, a direct competitor for the same prey. Therefore, on the basis of literature reviewed, we hypothesize that the seabirds were affected by the decreasing carrying capacity of the CCS, over-exploitation of some prey stocks and interference competition from the previously exploited, but now increasing, baleen whale populations. Overall, our study highlights the complexity of the ecological factors driving seabird population trends in the highly variable and rapidly changing CCS ecosystem.

The rate of mental health service use in New Zealand as analysed by ethnicity.

PubMed

Tapsell, Rees; Hallett, Charlene; Mellsop, Graham

2018-06-01

To compare by ethnicity the rates of apparent new referrals and admissions to mental health services for selected major diagnostic groupings. Using a Ministry of Health database covering all referrals and admissions to New Zealand's Mental Health services in 2014 and who had not been patients in the preceding six years, population adjusted rates of presentation were calculated and compared across the two major New Zealand ethnic groupings. Population corrected rates of apparently new cases of schizophrenia are more than twice as common in Māori as in non-Māori. Major depression is also significantly more common in Māori. That same trend was not evident for bipolar patients. These ethnically associated apparent differences in the rates of schizophrenia and depression need both confirmation and explanation.

Effects of protease, phytase and a Bacillus sp. direct-fed microbial on nutrient and energy digestibility, ileal brush border digestive enzyme activity and cecal short-chain fatty acid concentration in broiler chickens.

PubMed

Murugesan, Ganapathi R; Romero, Luis F; Persia, Michael E

2014-01-01

Two experiments were conducted to determine the effects of protease and phytase (PP) and a Bacillus sp. direct-fed microbial (DFM) on dietary energy and nutrient utilization in broiler chickens. In the first experiment, Ross 308 broiler chicks were fed diets supplemented with PP and DFM in a 2×2 factorial arrangement. The 4 diets (control (CON), CON + PP, CON + DFM, and CON + PP + DFM) were fed from 15-21 days of age. In Experiment 1, significant interaction (P≤0.01) between PP and DFM on the apparent ileal digestibility coefficient for starch, crude protein, and amino acid indicated that both additives increased the digestibility. Both additives increased the nitrogen retention coefficient with a significant interaction (P≤0.01). Although no interaction was observed, significant main effects (P≤0.01) for nitrogen-corrected apparent ME (AMEn) for PP or DFM indicated an additive response. In a follow-up experiment, Ross 308 broiler chicks were fed the same experimental diets from 1-21 days of age. Activities of ileal brush border maltase, sucrase, and L-alanine aminopeptidase were increased (P≤0.01) by PP addition, while a trend (P = 0.07) for increased sucrase activity was observed in chickens fed DFM, in Experiment 2. The proportion of cecal butyrate was increased (P≤0.01) by DFM addition. Increased nutrient utilization and nitrogen retention appear to involve separate but complementary mechanisms for PP and DFM, however AMEn responses appear to have separate and additive mechanisms.

The Multiphase Rheology of Andesitic Magmas from the 1.9ka Eruption of Turrialba Volcano (Costa Rica)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vona, A.; Di Piazza, A.; Romano, C.; De Astis, G.; Soto, G. J.

2014-12-01

We present a study of high-temperature, uniaxial deformation experiments of natural magma from an andesitic eruption of Turrialba volcano (1.9ka Plinian eruption). The aim of this work is to investigate the multiphase rheology (liquid+vesicles+crystals) of natural samples and the effect of vesicles and crystals on the magma viscosity. The experiments were performed using a high-temperature uniaxial Geocomp LoadTrac II press at dry atmospheric conditions and controlled deformation rates. Cores of natural sample (with Φcrys=0.20-0.30 and Φves=0.41-0.58) were deformed isothermally (790-870°C) at variable strain rates (VSR, from 10-6 to 10-4 s-1) and constant strain rate (CSR, 10-5 s-1). VSR were performed at low total amount of strain (e<0.10) to parameterize the flow behavior of these complex natural materials. The stress-strain rate relationships under flow conditions showed a linear trend between the applied stress and strain rate in the temperature interval investigated. All the samples display a steep linear trend, typical of Newtonian fluids (n index ~ 1), with a very small shear thinning behavior. CSR tests were performed at different total amount of strain (e=0.15-0.25-0.35). Strain hardening was observed with increasing deformation, resulting in an increase of apparent viscosity (up to 100.5 Pa s). This increase is related to the loss of total porosity (up to ΔΦves=0.15) due to compaction of the sample as indicated by post-run analyses . The measured multiphase rheology of Turrialba magmas was compared with literature models for both crystal- and bubble-bearing suspension. We calculate a difference of ~101 Pa s in magma apparent viscosity between high and low density samples, that coupled with a lateral temperature gradient inside the conduit of the volcano, could increase up to ~103 Pa s. The large difference in viscosity could be responsible of significant rheological contrasts, possibly resulting in strain localization and brittle fragmentation of magma.

The dose-response analysis between BMI and common chronic diseases in northeast China.

PubMed

Yu, Jianxing; Tao, Yuchun; Dou, Jing; Ye, Junsen; Yu, Yaqin; Jin, Lina

2018-03-09

High body mass index (BMI) predisposes to several chronic diseases, but a large-scale systematic and detailed study of dose-response relationship between BMI and chronic diseases has not been reported previously. In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between BMI and 3 chronic diseases (hypertension, dyslipidemia and MetS) in northeast China. A sample of 16412 participants aged 18~79 years old were included in Jilin province in 2012. The lambda-mu-sigma (LMS) method was applied to examine the trend of BMI by age, and the restricted cubic splines were used to investigate the non-linear associations (dose-response curve) between BMI and chronic diseases. It was pointed out that BMI increased rapidly when young, then kept steady in middle age, and finally declined slowly in old age, and accordingly age was divided into 3 segments, which were different by gender. The odds ratios (ORs) of BMI for the chronic diseases increased relatively slowly when young, then increased dramatically in middle-age and old population, especially for men. Further, the ORs of BMI among non-smokers were lower than those among smokers, and the same trend was shown to be more apparent among drinkers and non-drinkers. The risk of BMI for common chronic diseases increased dramatically in middle-aged, especially for men with drinking and smoking habits.

Socioeconomic Disparities in Alcohol-Related Mortality in Sweden, 1991-2006: A Register-Based Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Budhiraja, Meenal; Landberg, Jonas

2016-05-01

To examine whether apparent stability of overall alcohol-related mortality in Sweden during a period when traditionally strict alcohol policies went through a series of liberalizations and overall alcohol mortality remained stable, concealed a heterogeneity across socioeconomic groups (defined by educational level); and whether an increase occurred in the contribution of alcohol-related mortality to overall mortality differentials. Drawing on cause of death data linked to census records for the period 1991-2006, we computed annual age-standardized and sex-specific rates of alcohol-related mortality for groups with low, intermediate and high education. Alcohol-related mortality was considerably higher in lower educational groups for both men and women. For men, the trends in alcohol-related mortality were roughly stable for all education groups, and there were no signs of increasing inequalities by education. For women, alcohol-related mortality increased significantly for the low-education group whereas the two higher education groups showed no significant time trends, thus resulting in a widened educational gap in alcohol mortality for women. Alcohol's contribution to the overall mortality differentials declined for men and was basically unchanged for women. The findings provide only partial support to the hypothesis that the liberalizations of Swedish alcohol policy have been followed by a general increase in socioeconomic disparities in alcohol-related mortality. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Anthropogenic climate change has driven Lake Superior productivity beyond the range of Holocene variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

OBeirne, M. D.; Werne, J. P.; Hecky, R. E.; Johnson, T. C.; Katsev, S.; Reavie, E. D.

2013-12-01

Recent studies have noted that changes in Lake Superior's physical, chemical and biological processes are apparent - including a warming of the surface waters at a rate twice as great as the surrounding airshed in the last 20 years. These changes are often difficult to perceive as cause for concern when not placed within a historical context. In this study, bulk C and N abundance and stable isotope composition was determined on sediments from three piston and corresponding gravity cores, representing a record of lake-wide paleoproductivity trends spanning the Holocene. These data are compared with the same measurements on eight multi-cores sampled at high resolution spanning the past ~200 years, which allows for the historical comparison with recent (1800 A.D. to present) productivity trends. Throughout the Holocene, Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in productivity consistent with conventional lake ontogeny. During the last 200 years, however, the Lake Superior basin has undergone biogeochemical changes that are unique in the context of the Holocene. Lake-wide sedimentary bulk organic carbon data indicate increasing primary production between 1900 and present, as indicated by a ~2‰ increase in δ13Corg. In contrast,δ15Norg values, which increased throughout the Holocene, become progressively 15N-depleted after 1900, likely due to atmospheric deposition of NOx from fossil fuel combustion. The most recent increases in primary productivity are likely a response to increasing water temperatures, leading to longer ice-free periods as previously documented in Lake Superior.

Self-Esteem of Juvenile Delinquents: Findings and Implications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldsmith, Herbert R., Jr.

1987-01-01

Examines delinquent self-esteem via review of published literature. Focused on the perceived current trend regarding insufficient considerations granted to the self-esteem paradigm in treatment prevention programming and apparent neglect of existent programming to appropriately merge significant research findings into viable treatment prevention…

US Videotex Activities and Policy Concerns.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Criner, Kathleen

1980-01-01

Describes various trends apparent in the development of videotex services (teletext/viewdata) in the United States and outlines forthcoming experimental applications. Author discusses policy issues raised by existing systems and concludes that the main constraint to development in the USA derives from uncertainty regarding consumer demand and…

Declines in the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and flux from the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worrall, Fred; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Burt, Tim P.; Bartlett, Rebecca

2018-01-01

Increased concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have been reported for many catchments across the northern hemisphere. Hypotheses to explain the increase have varied (eg. increasing air temperature or recovery from acidification) but one test of alternative hypotheses is the trend over the recent decade, with the competing hypotheses predicting: continuing increase; the rate of increase declining with time; and even decrease in concentration. In this study, records of DOC concentration in non-tidal rivers across the UK were examined for the period 2003-2012. The study found that: Of the 62 decade-long concentration trends that could be examined, 3 showed a significant increase, 17 experienced no significant change and 42 showed a significant decrease; in 28 of the 42 significant decreases, a significant step change was apparent with step changes being a decrease in concentration in every case. Of the 118 sites where annual flux and concentration records were available from 1974, 28 showed a significant step change down in flux and 52 showed a step down in concentration. The modal year of the step changes was 2000 with no step changes observed before 1982. At the UK national scale, DOC flux peaked in 2005 at 1354 ktonnes C/yr (5.55 tonnes C/km2/yr) but has declined since. The study suggests that there is a disconnection between DOC records from large catchments at their tidal limits and complementary records from headwater catchments, which means that mechanisms believed to be driving increases in DOC concentrations in headwaters will not necessarily be those controlling trends in DOC concentration further downstream. We propose that the changes identified here have been driven by changes in in-stream processing and changes brought about by the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive. Therefore, signals identified in headwater catchments may bear little relation to those observed in large rivers much further downstream and vice versa.

Epidemiological-environmental study of diesel bus garage workers: chronic effects of diesel exhaust on the respiratory system.

PubMed

Gamble, J; Jones, W; Minshall, S

1987-10-01

Two hundred and eighty-three (283) male diesel bus garage workers from four garages in two cities were examined to determine if there was excess chronic respiratory morbidity related to diesel exposure. The dependent variables were respiratory symptoms, radiographic interpretation for pneumoconiosis, and pulmonary function (FVC, FEV1, and flow rates). Independent variables included race, age, smoking, drinking, height, and tenure (as surrogate measure of exposure). Exposure-effect relationships within the study population showed no detectable associations of symptoms with tenure. There was an apparent association of pulmonary function and tenure. Seven workers (2.5%) had category 1 pneumoconiosis (three rounded opacities, two irregular opacities, and one with both rounded and irregular). The study population was also compared to a nonexposed "blue-collar" population. After indirect adjustment for age, race, and smoking, the study population had elevated prevalences of cough, phlegm, and wheezing, but there was no association with tenure. Dyspnea showed a dose-response trend but no apparent increase in prevalence. Mean percent predicted pulmonary function of the study population was greater than 100%, i.e., elevated above the comparison population. These data show there is an apparent effect of diesel exhaust on pulmonary function but not chest radiographs. Respiratory symptoms are high compared to "blue-collar" workers, but there is no relationship with tenure.

Epidemiology Characteristics and Trends of Lung Cancer Incidence in Iran.

PubMed

Almasi, Zeinab; Salehiniya, Hamid; Amoori, Neda; Enayatrad, Mostafa

2016-01-01

Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers in the world and a major cause of death from cancer. One of the important indicators to compare the prevalence and incidence of the disease is a change in the trend. The aim of this study was to investigate the changes in the incidence of lung cancer in Iran. This study was conducted based on existing data obtained from a national registry of cancer cases and the Disease Management Center of Ministry of Health in Iran. All cases registered in the country were included during 2003-2008. Incidence rates were reported based on the direct method and standard population of World Health Organization. The study also examined the morphology of common lung cancers. Trends in incidence underwent joinpoint regression analysis. Based on the results of this study, 14,403 cases of lung cancer have been recorded of which 10,582 cases were in men and 3,821 in women. Highest incidence rates were observed in the 80-84 age group. Considerable variation across provinces was evident. In females squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) demonstrated a reduction from 24% to 16% of lesions over the period of study, while adenocarcinoma rose from 21% to 29%. In males a similar reduction in SCC was apparent (42% to 29%, again with increase in AC (13 % to 18%). The results show that the increase in the incidence of lung cancer the trend is that more men than women and in men and may be caused by changes in smoking pattern. The incidence of lung cancer in the North West and West provinces was higher than in other regions.

Patterns of testosterone prescription overuse.

PubMed

Jasuja, Guneet K; Bhasin, Shalender; Rose, Adam J

2017-06-01

There has been an increase in the prescribing of testosterone therapy in the past decade. There is concern that at least part of this increase is driven by advertising rather than sound medical practice. The purpose of this review is to summarize the recent trends in testosterone prescribing, and to examine whether testosterone is being appropriately prescribed as per guidelines. Both global and U.S. data reflect an overall increase in the use of testosterone in the last decade, although there are early signs of a decline in testosterone sales since 2014. This increased prescribing has been accompanied with an overall increase in testing for testosterone levels, prescription of testosterone without the appropriate diagnostic evaluation recommended by clinical practice guidelines, and apparent use of this therapy for unproven medical conditions. Research to date suggests that there is room to improve our prescribing of testosterone. Greater understanding of the potential provider-level and system-level factors that contribute to the current prescribing practices may help accomplish such improvement.

Arecibo Radar Observation of Near-Earth Asteroids: Expanded Sample Size, Determination of Radar Albedos, and Measurements of Polarization Ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lejoly, Cassandra; Howell, Ellen S.; Taylor, Patrick A.; Springmann, Alessondra; Virkki, Anne; Nolan, Michael C.; Rivera-Valentin, Edgard G.; Benner, Lance A. M.; Brozovic, Marina; Giorgini, Jon D.

2017-10-01

The Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) population ranges in size from a few meters to more than 10 kilometers. NEAs have a wide variety of taxonomic classes, surface features, and shapes, including spheroids, binary objects, contact binaries, elongated, as well as irregular bodies. Using the Arecibo Observatory planetary radar system, we have measured apparent rotation rate, radar reflectivity, apparent diameter, and radar albedos for over 350 NEAs. The radar albedo is defined as the radar cross-section divided by the geometric cross-section. If a shape model is available, the actual cross-section is known at the time of the observation. Otherwise we derive a geometric cross-section from a measured diameter. When radar imaging is available, the diameter was measured from the apparent range depth. However, when radar imaging was not available, we used the continuous wave (CW) bandwidth radar measurements in conjunction with the period of the object. The CW bandwidth provides apparent rotation rate, which, given an independent rotation measurement, such as from lightcurves, constrains the size of the object. We assumed an equatorial view unless we knew the pole orientation, which gives a lower limit on the diameter. The CW also provides the polarization ratio, which is the ratio of the SC and OC cross-sections.We confirm the trend found by Benner et al. (2008) that taxonomic types E and V have very high polarization ratios. We have obtained a larger sample and can analyze additional trends with spin, size, rotation rate, taxonomic class, polarization ratio, and radar albedo to interpret the origin of the NEAs and their dynamical processes. The distribution of radar albedo and polarization ratio at the smallest diameters (≤50 m) differs from the distribution of larger objects (>50 m), although the sample size is limited. Additionally, we find more moderate radar albedos for the smallest NEAs when compared to those with diameters 50-150 m. We will present additional trends we find in this data set.

Nicotine replacement prescribing trends in a large psychiatric hospital, before and after implementation of a hospital-wide smoking ban.

PubMed

Scharf, Deborah; Fabian, Tanya; Fichter-DeSando, Cecilia; Douaihy, Antoine

2011-06-01

We examined prescribing patterns for nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs) in a large psychiatric hospital, before and after the implementation of a smoking ban. We extracted 5 years of NRT utilization data from hospital pharmacy records. The ban went into effect on January 1, 2007. Data reflect NRT prescriptions from 2 years before and 3 years after the ban, and N = 30,908 total inpatient hospital admissions. The monthly rate of total NRT prescriptions increased after the ban from M = 254.25 (SD = 126.60) doses per month to M = 4,467.52 (SD = 1,785.87) doses per month (>1,700% increase, p < .0001). After the smoking ban, clinicians prescribed higher doses of transdermal (but not oral) NRT (Tukey, p < .0001). Comparisons of NRT prescribing across hospital units tentatively suggested that patients being treated on the substance use disorders unit were prescribed more doses of NRT, as well as higher doses of NRT compared with patients on other units. Analysis of trends over time showed no apparent downward trend for NRT usage during the 3 years following the smoking ban, suggesting that clinicians continued to treat nicotine dependence after smoking was restricted. Clinicians are more likely to identify and treat symptoms of nicotine withdrawal when smoking is restricted. Hospitals should consider monitoring prescriptions for NRT as part of their ongoing quality assurance practices so that patients receive aggressive treatment of nicotine withdrawal symptoms--an essential component of high-quality patient care.

Water level response to hydropower development in the upper Mekong River.

PubMed

Li, Shaojuan; He, Daming

2008-05-01

Environmental changes and their transboundary influences on the Mekong watercourse system have been an international research focus in recent years, but the opinions and results related to the impacts of upper Mekong River dams are quite different. In this paper, based on the records of water levels from 1960 to 2003 at three mainstream sites in the upper Mekong River, a quantitative examination has been undertaken into characteristics of the mainstream water-level process at multiple timescales and its response to cascade development. The major results are: i) Annual mean, wet period mean, and the mean water levels during the period between March and April (PBMA period) exhibit a significant increasing trend at Jiuzhou and Yunjinghong sites, which are influenced by large-scale factors such as climate change and solar activity. ii) The interdecadal and interannual variations of annual mean, annual maximum, and wet period mean water levels at three sites show similar features during the dam construction period. iii) The interdecadal variations of PBMA period water level show a gradual increase at Gajiu and Yunjinghong sites but a falling trend at Jiuzhou; these trends confirm that there is some regulation on the flow in the dry season caused by the two existing dams. iv) The downstream effects of the present dams on water levels are very limited at the annual mean and wet season mean levels, not apparent at the monthly and yearly timescales, and relatively significant at daily and hourly timescales.

Spleen magnetic resonance diffusion-weighted imaging for quantitative staging hepatic fibrosis in miniature pigs: An initial study.

PubMed

Chen, Xiao-Li; Chen, Tian-Wu; Zhang, Xiao-Ming; Li, Zhen-Lin; Li, Hang; Zeng, Nan-Lin; Tang, Hong-Jie; Pu, Yu; Chen, Nan; Yang, Qi; Li, Li; Xie, Xian-Yong; Hu, Jiani

2013-11-01

To determine whether spleen diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) parameters might classify liver fibrosis stage. Sixteen miniature pigs were prospectively used to model liver fibrosis, and underwent spleen DWI by using b = 300, 500 and 800 s/mm(2) on 0, 5th, 9th, 16th and 21st weekend after the beginning of modeling. Signal intensity ratio of spleen to paraspinous muscles (S/M), spleen exponential apparent diffusion coefficient (eADC) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) for each b-value were statistically analyzed. With increasing stages of fibrosis, S/M for all b-values showed a downward trend; and spleen eADC and ADC for b = 300 s/mm(2) showed downward and upward trends, respectively (all P < 0.05). The area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) of spleen DWI parameters was 0.777 or more by S/M for classifying each fibrosis stage, and 0.65 or more by eADC and 0.648 or more by ADC for classifying stage ≥3 or cirrhosis. Among the spleen DWI parameters, S/M for b = 300 s/mm(2) was the best parameter in classifying stage 1 or more, 2 or more and 3 or more with AUC of 0.875, 0.851 and 0.843, respectively; and spleen eADC for b = 300 s/mm(2) was best in classifying stage 4 with an AUC of 0.988. Spleen DWI may be used to stage liver fibrosis. © 2013 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Low Altitude AVIRIS Data for Mapping Landform Types on West Ship Island, Mississippi

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph; Otvos, Ervin; Giardino, Marco

2002-01-01

This paper presents a viewgraph presentation on low altitude AVIRIS data for mapping landform types on West Ship Island, Mississippi. The topics of discussion include: 1) Project background; 2) Mapping methods; 3) Examples of results; 4) Apparent trends; and 5) Final remarks.

Work history and mortality risks in 90,268 US radiological technologists.

PubMed

Liu, Jason J; Freedman, D Michal; Little, Mark P; Doody, Michele M; Alexander, Bruce H; Kitahara, Cari M; Lee, Terrence; Rajaraman, Preetha; Miller, Jeremy S; Kampa, Diane M; Simon, Steven L; Preston, Dale L; Linet, Martha S

2014-12-01

There have been few studies of work history and mortality risks in medical radiation workers. We expanded by 11 years and more outcomes our previous study of mortality risks and work history, a proxy for radiation exposure. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we estimated mortality risks according to questionnaire work history responses from 1983 to 1989 through 2008 by 90,268 US radiological technologists. We controlled for potential confounding by age, birth year, smoking history, body mass index, race and gender. There were 9566 deaths (3329 cancer and 3020 circulatory system diseases). Mortality risks increased significantly with earlier year began working for female breast (p trend=0.01) and stomach cancers (p trend=0.01), ischaemic heart (p trend=0.03) and cerebrovascular diseases (p trend=0.02). The significant trend with earlier year first worked was strongly apparent for breast cancer during baseline through 1997, but not 1998-2008. Risks were similar in the two periods for circulatory diseases. Radiological technologists working ≥5 years before 1950 had elevated mortality from breast cancer (HR=2.05, 95% CI 1.27 to 3.32), leukaemia (HR=2.57, 95% CI 0.96 to 6.68), ischaemic heart disease (HR=1.13, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.33) and cerebrovascular disease (HR=1.28, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.69). No other work history factors were consistently associated with mortality risks from specific cancers or circulatory diseases, or other conditions. Radiological technologists who began working in early periods and for more years before 1950 had increased mortality from a few cancers and some circulatory system diseases, likely reflecting higher occupational radiation exposures in the earlier years. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Tumour cell dispersion by the ultrasonic aspirator during brain tumour resection.

PubMed

Preston, J K; Masciopinto, J; Salamat, M S; Badie, B

1999-10-01

Ultrasonic aspirators are commonly used to resect brain tumours because they allow safe, rapid and accurate removal of diseased tissue. Since ultrasonic aspirators generate a spray of aerosolized irrigating fluid around the instrument tip, we questioned whether this spray might contain viable tumours cells that could contribute to intraoperative spread of tumour fragments. To test this hypothesis, we collected the spray produced during the resection of nine brain tumours with an ultrasonic aspirator and semi-quantitatively analysed it for tumour presence. The aerosolized irrigation fluid was found to contain intact tumour cells or clumps of tumour cells in all nine instances, and there was a trend of increasing tumour cell dispersion with increasing ultrasonic aspiration times. Further examination is required to determine if this intraoperative dispersion of apparently viable tumour fragments contributes to local neoplasm recurrence.

Regional inequalities in pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity in Sweden, 1992, 2000, and 2010.

PubMed

Chaparro, M Pia; Ivarsson, Anneli; Koupil, Ilona; Nilsson, Karina; Häggström, Jenny; de Luna, Xavier; Lindgren, Urban

2015-07-01

To investigate regional differences and time trends in women's overweight and obesity in Sweden. Using data from the Swedish Medical Birth Register (women aged ⩾18 years, first pregnancy only) and the Total Population Register accessed through the Umeå SIMSAM Lab, age-standardized prevalence of pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity (BMI ⩾ 25 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI ⩾ 30 kg/m(2)) were estimated by county for the years 1992, 2000, and 2010. Maps were created using ArcMap v10.2.2 to display regional variations over time and logistic regression analyses were used to assess if the observed trends were significant. The prevalence of pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and obesity increased significantly in all Swedish counties between 1992, and 2010. In 2010, Södermanland and Gotland exhibited the highest age-standardized overweight/obesity (39.7%) and obesity (15.1%) prevalence, respectively. The sharpest increases between 1992 and 2010 were observed in Västerbotten for overweight/obesity (75% increase) and in Gotland for obesity (233% increase). Across the years, Stockholm had the lowest prevalence of overweight/obesity (26.3% in 2010) and obesity (7.3% in 2010) and one of the least steep increases in prevalence of both between 1992 and 2010. Substantial regional differences in pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity prevalence are apparent in Sweden. Further research should elucidate the mechanisms causing these differences. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Contemporary Trends in Land Surface Phenologies from the Aral Basin Suggest Weather- or Irrigation-Driven Changes in GPP not Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, C. K.; de Beurs, K.; Henebry, G. M.

2009-12-01

The transformation of the Aral Sea into the Aral Lakes is a startling example of anthropogenic environmental degradation. However, ongoing impacts of hydrologic modification and climatic change are occurring throughout the nearly 2 million km2 Aral Basin (AB), thus requiring synoptic, basin-wide monitoring of environmental trends. The MODIS 500m global land cover (LC) product is a potential source of such information in a data-sparse region like the AB. However, we find that it is particularly unstable in this arid/semi-arid region. For example, 25% of AB pixels change LC class between 2001 and 2005 versions of the global LC using the IGBP LC scheme. Here we present an alternate analysis of environmental trends in the AB using MODIS data at the same spatial resolution, but incorporating temporal information embedded within contemporary land surface phenologies (LSPs), in contrast to temporally delimited LC. NDVI time series from 2001-2008 were derived from 500m MODIS NBAR data (16-d composites every 8 d; MCD43A4). Focusing on the period from 1 March to 1 October, each pixel time series was comprised of 27 NDVI values per year (or 216 composites in total). Trend analysis using the nonparametric Seasonal Kendall test revealed a number of spatially coherent hotspots of highly significant (p<0.01) positive and negative trends in NDVI dynamics over the 2001-2008 interval. Relative to the 2001 and 2005 LC classifications, positive trends tended to coincide with the following transitions between IGBP classes: open shrub → closed shrub; grassland → {open shrub, cropland}; {open shrub, cropland/natural vegetation mix} → cropland. These findings suggest that apparent LC change events might be false-positives caused by weather-driven increases in GPP. In turn, negative trends were largely coincident with putative LC change to grassland from mostly woody classes: {closed shrub, open shrub, woody savanna, savanna, snow/ice, barren} → grassland. Here, potential false-positives may reflect effects of regional drought on woody classes, declining mountain snowpack, or original misclassification of grassland as barren, i.e., we would expect declining NDVI in drought-affected grassland, with limited sensitivity to NDVI trends in the barren class. In the intensively irrigated subregion of Karakalpakstan, the MODIS LC product indicates an elevated rate of change from natural vegetation to cropland and vice versa. These transitions tend to coincide with highly significant (p<0.01) negative or positive NDVI trends. However, visual inspection of 2001 and 2005 Landsat imagery from Karakalpakstan did not indicate extensive LC change. Here we interpret apparent false-positives in the global LC product as arising from localized changes in irrigation or cropping practices. Overall, this work demonstrates the utility of temporally dense LSPs for large-area monitoring of environmental change, as opposed to occasional LC classifications which, in arid regions like the AB, may exhibit instability and sensitivity with respect to a region’s normal range of interannual spectral variability.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Field-based estimates of avian mortality from West Nile virus infection.

PubMed

Ward, Michael P; Beveroth, Tara A; Lampman, Richard; Raim, Arlo; Enstrom, David; Novak, Robert

2010-11-01

One of the unique characteristics of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America is the large number of bird species for which the virus can be fatal. WNV mortality has been documented through experimental infections of captive birds and necropsies of free-ranging birds. Investigations of WNV-related mortality in wild birds often focus on species with dramatic population declines (e.g., American Crow, Corvus brachyrhynchos); however, few studies have addressed WNV-related mortality in species not exhibiting marked population declines since the arrival of WNV. We conducted a mark-recapture study of 204 Northern Cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis) in an area with endemic WNV activity to estimate WNV-related mortality. Previous research has shown that once a bird is infected and recovers from WNV it develops antibodies making it resistant to future infection. Assuming that mortality risks from non-WNV causes were the same for individuals with (had been exposed to WNV) and without antibodies (had not been exposed to WNV), we compared the survival rates of birds with and without WNV antibodies to estimate the impact of WNV on wild birds. An information theoretic approach was used, and the apparent survival was found to be 34.6% lower for individuals without antibodies during the period when WNV was most active (July-September). However, the apparent survival rate was 9.0% higher for individuals without antibodies over the rest of the year. These differences in apparent survival suggest that WNV increases mortality during the WNV season and that chronic effects of WNV infection may also be contributing to mortality. Although WNV appears to have increased mortality rates within the population, population trend data do not indicate declines, suggesting that some cardinal populations can compensate for WNV-related mortality.

The Future of Marriage and Family in Black America.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickson, Lynda

1993-01-01

Explores reasons for the apparent difficulty that African-American males and females have in establishing and maintaining stable relationships. Data from the National Survey of Black Americans and other sources indicate numerous explanations for the situation, including economic factors. Trends for the future of African-American relationships and…

Recurrent intraplate tectonism in the New Madrid seismic zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zoback, M.D.; Hamilton, R.M.; Crone, A.J.

1980-08-29

For the first time, New Madrid seismicity can be linked to specific structural features that have been reactivated through geologic time. Extensive seismic reflection profiling reveals major faults coincident with the main earthquake trends in the area and with structural deformation apparently caused by repeated episodes of igneous activity.

Raising Achievement through Inclusion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Persson, Elisabeth

2013-01-01

In 2007, Swedish authorities introduced open publication of comparisons of students' results at the end of compulsory school. In this study, we investigated a municipality that had succeeded in breaking a negative trend from a bottom position in the ranking in 2007 to a top position in 2010, apparently through inclusive practices. The purpose of…

Effects of irrigation practices on water use in the groundwater management districts within the Kansas high plains, 1991-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Charles A.

2006-01-01

Data compiled for the High Plains region of Kansas that includes five Groundwater Management Districts (GMDs) were analyzed for trends in irrigation water use, acres irrigated, precipitation, irrigation system types, and irrigated crop types to determine the effects of irrigation practices on water use over time. For the study period 1991 through 2003, precipitation decreased significantly (with 95-percent confidence) in northwestern and west-central Kansas but not in the southwestern and south-central parts of the State. Irrigation water use had no statistically significant trend during this period. There was a good (R= -0.77) relation between average regional precipitation and total GMD irrigation water use. When irrigation water use was adjusted for this relation, there was a positive trend (90-percent confidence level) in the adjusted irrigation water use. Another adjustment to water use was made using the ratio of annual precipitation to 1991-2005 average precipitation, which resulted in a negative trend (95-percent confidence level) in irrigation water use. This demonstrated the contradictory nature of precipitation adjustments to water use, making their utility somewhat suspect. GMD 3 in southwestern Kansas used 63 percent of the total acre-feet of irrigation water within all the GMDs. When all GMDs are considered, the number of irrigated acres for flood and center pivot systems without drop nozzles decreased significantly during the study period. At the same time the number of drop nozzle irrigated acres increased significantly. The number of irrigated acres of water-intensive crops (corn, alfalfa, and soybeans) also increased significantly, whereas the number of less- or non-water-intensive crops (grain sorghum and wheat), and multiple crop type acres decreased. Drop nozzle irrigation systems used approximately 2 percent less water in a year-by-year comparison than center pivot systems and 8 to 11 percent less water than flood irrigation. The best estimator of irrigation water use incorporated total acres irrigated and annual average or March-October regional precipitation. A conclusion that can be drawn from the trend analyses described in this report is that, although irrigation water use for all GMDs showed no statistically significant trend, an apparent increased efficiency of center pivots irrigation systems with drop nozzles has allowed more water-intensive crops to be grown on more irrigated acres.

National Prevalence and Trends of HIV Transmitted Drug Resistance in Mexico

PubMed Central

Avila-Ríos, Santiago; García-Morales, Claudia; Garrido-Rodríguez, Daniela; Ormsby, Christopher E.; Hernández-Juan, Ramón; Andrade-Villanueva, Jaime; González-Hernández, Luz A.; Torres-Escobar, Indiana; Navarro-Álvarez, Samuel; Reyes-Terán, Gustavo

2011-01-01

Background Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) remains an important concern for the management of HIV infection, especially in countries that have recently scaled-up antiretroviral treatment (ART) access. Methodology/Principal Findings We designed a study to assess HIV diversity and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) prevalence and trends in Mexico. 1655 ART-naïve patients from 12 Mexican states were enrolled from 2005 to 2010. TDR was assessed from plasma HIV pol sequences using Stanford scores and the WHO TDR surveillance mutation list. TDR prevalence fluctuations over back-projected dates of infection were tested. HIV subtype B was highly prevalent in Mexico (99.9%). TDR prevalence (Stanford score>15) in the country for the study period was 7.4% (95% CI, 6.2∶8.8) and 6.8% (95% CI, 5.7∶8.2) based on the WHO TDR surveillance mutation list. NRTI TDR was the highest (4.2%), followed by NNRTI (2.5%) and PI (1.7%) TDR. Increasing trends for NNRTI (p = 0.0456) and PI (p = 0.0061) major TDR mutations were observed at the national level. Clustering of viruses containing minor TDR mutations was observed with some apparent transmission pairs and geographical effects. Conclusions TDR prevalence in Mexico remains at the intermediate level and is slightly lower than that observed in industrialized countries. Whether regional variations in TDR trends are associated with differences in antiretroviral drug usage/ART efficacy or with local features of viral evolution remains to be further addressed. PMID:22110765

Risks from Worldwide Terrorism: Mortality and Morbidity Patterns and Trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bogen, K T; Jones, E D

Worldwide data on terrorist incidents between 1968 and 2004 gathered by the RAND corporation and the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) were assessed for patterns and trends in morbidity/mortality. The data involve a total of 19,828 events, 7,401 ''adverse'' events (each causing {ge}1 victim), 91,346 cases of casualty (either injury or death) and 25,408 deaths. Analyses revealed a number of interesting patterns and apparently significant trends. Most terror-related adverse events, casualties and deaths involved bombs and guns. Weapon-specific patterns and terror-related risk levels in Israel (ISR) have differed markedly from those of all othermore » regions combined (AOR). ISR had a fatal fraction of casualties about half that of AOR, but has experienced relatively constant lifetime terror-related casualty risks on the order of 0.5%--a level 2 to 3 orders of magnitude more than those experienced in AOR, which have increased {approx}100-fold over the same period. Individual event fatality has increased steadily, the median increasing from 14 to 50%. Lorenz curves obtained indicate substantial dispersion among victim/event rates: about half of all victims were caused by the top 2% (10%) of harm-ranked events in OAR (ISR). Extreme values of victim/event rates were found to be well modeled by classic or generalized Pareto distributions, indicating that these rates have been as predictable as similarly extreme phenomena such as rainfall, sea levels, earthquakes, etc. This observation suggests that these extreme-value patterns may be used to improve strategies to prevent and manage risks associated with terror-related consequences.« less

An analysis of 6 decades of hygiene-related advertising: 1940-2000.

PubMed

Aiello, A E; Larson, E L

2001-12-01

To describe and analyze trends in hygiene-related advertisements and examine potential social and regulatory changes that might be associated with these trends. From 1940 to 2000, advertisements in January issues of 2 widely read magazines were analyzed every fifth year, and 2 additional magazines only available from 1960 to 2000 were also analyzed every fifth year. In a content analysis, the total number of advertisements were determined and specific advertisements were grouped into categories (personal hygiene, dishwashing, laundry, and house cleaning) and further examined for the presence of 4 key claims (aesthetics, health effects, time-saving, and microbial effects). From 1940 to 2000 for all magazines combined, 10.4% of the advertisements were devoted to hygiene products. After 1960 there were significantly fewer hygiene advertisements as compared with 1940 to 1955, and there was a significant increase after 1980 (P <.00001). Throughout all 6 decades, most advertisements related to personal hygiene. There were no significant differences over time in the proportion of advertisements that made claims related to health, microbial effects, or aesthetics, but significantly more advertisements before 1960 made time-savings claims (P =.009). This content analysis reflects a cyclical attention in consumer advertising to personal and home hygiene products during the past 6 decades, with a waning of interest in the decades from 1960 to 1980 and an apparent resurgence of advertisements from 1985 to 2000. The potential contributions of federal regulatory bodies and societal changes (e.g., new marketing strategies and options, product development, new and re-emerging infectious diseases, increasing concern about antimicrobial resistance, and increasing recognition that infectious diseases are unlikely to be eradicated) to these marketing trends are discussed.

Characteristics of young children with developmental delays and their trends over 14 years in Taiwan: a population-based nationwide study.

PubMed

Lai, Der-Chung; Tseng, Yen-Cheng; Guo, How-Ran

2018-05-08

To describe the epidemiological characteristics of developmental delays (DD) at the national level and assess the changes over time. We calculated the incidence rates of DD from 2003 to 2016 and assessed the trends over time. As dictated by law, local governments in Taiwan are required to register children with DD and provide services. The central government has constructed a national registry with the data from local centres. We analysed the national registry data. We included children who were under 6 years old, and this population ranged from 1 164 150 to 1 577 443 per year during the study period. All registered cases were certified through a process set forth by law. We calculated annual incidence rates by age, sex and geographical area, and assessed trends over the study period. The incidence of DD in children under 6 years old displayed an increasing trend over the study period, ranging from 7.0 to 16.3 per 1000 person-years. Boys had higher incidence throughout all 14 years, and the boy-to-girl rate ratios had an increasing trend over time with some fluctuations, ranging from 1.84 (95% CI 1.77 to 1.92) to 1.99 (95% CI 1.93 to 2.06). In addition, rural areas had higher incidence rates, and the rural to urban rate ratios ranged from 0.98 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.03) to 2.00 (95% CI 1.94 to 2.06) without apparent time trends. Girls had a higher proportion of early reporting (<3 years) throughout all years, but the differences in the proportion of early reporting between rural and urban areas were not consistent. Male sex appeared to be a risk factor for DD, which is unlikely to be due to more attention received by boys because girls had a higher proportion of early reporting. We also found that children lived in rural areas appeared to have a higher risk of having DD. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Practice activity trends among oral and maxillofacial surgeons in Australia

PubMed Central

Brennan, David S; Spencer, A John; Singh, Kiran A; Teusner, Dana N; Goss, Alastair N

2004-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to describe practice activity trends among oral and maxillofacial surgeons in Australia over time. Methods All registered oral and maxillofacial surgeons in Australia were surveyed in 1990 and 2000 using mailed self-complete questionnaires. Results Data were available from 79 surgeons from 1990 (response rate = 73.8%) and 116 surgeons from 2000 (response rate = 65.1%). The rate of provision of services per visit changed over time with increased rates observed overall (from 1.43 ± 0.05 services per visit in 1990 to 1.66 ± 0.06 services per visit in 2000), reflecting increases in pathology and reconstructive surgery. No change over time was observed in the provision of services per year (4,521 ± 286 services per year in 1990 and 4,503 ± 367 services per year in 2000). Time devoted to work showed no significant change over time (1,682 ± 75 hours per year in 1990 and 1,681 ± 94 hours per year in 2000), while the number of visits per week declined (70 ± 4 visits per week in 1990 to 58 ± 4 visits per week in 2000). Conclusions The apparent stability in the volume of services provided per year reflected a counterbalancing of increased services provided per visit and a decrease in the number of visits supplied. PMID:15613233

Part-time work among pediatricians expands.

PubMed

Cull, William L; O'Connor, Karen G; Olson, Lynn M

2010-01-01

The objective of this study was to track trends in part-time employment among pediatricians from 2000 to 2006 and to examine differences within subgroups of pediatricians. As part of the Periodic Survey of Fellows, national random samples of American Academy of Pediatrics members were surveyed in 2000, 2003, and 2006. These surveys shared questions concerning working part-time and other practice characteristics. Roughly 1600 pediatricians were included in each random sample. Totals of 812 (51%), 1020 (63%), and 1013 (62%) pediatricians completed the surveys in 2000, 2003, and 2006, respectively. Analyses were limited to nonretired, posttrainee pediatricians. The number of pediatricians who reported that they work part-time increased from 15% in 2000, to 20% in 2003, to 23% in 2006. The pattern of increased part-time work from 2000 to 2006 held for many subgroups, including men, women, pediatricians who were younger than 40 years, pediatricians who were aged >or=50 years, pediatricians who worked in an urban inner city, pediatricians who worked in suburban areas, general pediatricians, and subspecialist pediatricians. Those who were working part-time were more satisfied within their professional and personal activities. Part-time pediatricians worked on average 14.3 fewer hours per week in direct patient care. Increases in part-time work are apparent throughout pediatrics. The possible continued growth of part-time is an important trend within the field of pediatrics that will need to be monitored.

Recent evolution of surge-related events and assessment of coastal flooding risk on the eastern coasts of the English Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirazzoli, Paolo Antonio; Costa, Stéphane; Dornbusch, Uwe; Tomasin, Alberto

2006-12-01

This paper is based on statistical analysis of hourly tide measurements for some 285 equivalent full years from the stations of Weymouth, Bournemouth, Portsmouth, Newhaven, Dover and Sheerness in the UK, and of Cherbourg, Le Havre, Dieppe, Boulogne, Calais and Dunkirk in France. For each tidal value, surge heights have been determined and correlated with hourly or three-hourly wind and air pressure data from nearby meteorological stations. Major surges in the area are generally produced by storms associated with wind from north-west or south-west that tend to push oceanic water into the Channel. Recent medium-term climate evolution does not seem to increase the flooding risk at French stations, where surge-related winds tend to decrease in frequency and speed (Cherbourg, Dieppe and Boulogne) or show little change (Le Havre). However, the long-term risk of flooding will increase through the loss in land elevation due to a continuation of the local relative sea-level rise, especially if this effect will be enhanced by an acceleration in the global sea-level rise predicted by climatic models. The northern side of the Channel (Weymouth, Bournemouth and Portsmouth) is mainly exposed to southerly winds that show variable trends. It is also apparently affected by strong subsidence trends during the last two decades. If lasting, such trends can only increase long-term flooding risk. The flooding risk has not increased near the eastern end of the Channel. The duration of significant cyclonic events tends to decrease near Cherbourg but tends to increase near Weymouth, with no conclusive trends in other stations (Portsmouth, Calais and Dunkirk), where extreme surges may occur also in relatively high-air-pressure situations. In conclusion, medium-term coastal flooding risk seems to increase especially at Weymouth, Bournemouth and Portsmouth, and also, but less so, at Le Havre and Sheerness. In addition, few extreme surges occurred during the last decades at the time of spring high tide, which would seem to be a fortunate coincidence or, in some cases, an effect of tide-surge interaction. The risk of occurrence of less favourable random events in the near future is therefore of concern, and flood potential would greatly increase if the global sea-level rise expected in the near future is also considered.

Does the Mediterranean diet counteract the adverse effects of abdominal adiposity?

PubMed

Eguaras, S; Toledo, E; Buil-Cosiales, P; Salas-Salvadó, J; Corella, D; Gutierrez-Bedmar, M; Santos-Lozano, J M; Arós, F; Fiol, M; Fitó, M; Ros, E; Serra-Majem, L; Pintó, X; Martínez, J A; Sorlí, J V; Muñoz, M A; Basora, J; Estruch, R; Martínez-González, M Á

2015-06-01

We tested the hypothesis that an intervention with a Mediterranean diet (MeDiet) could mitigate the well-known harmful effects of abdominal obesity on cardiovascular health. We assessed the relationship between baseline waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and major cardiovascular events during a median follow-up of 4.8 years in the Prevention with Mediterranean Diet (PREDIMED) randomized primary prevention trial, which tested a MeDiet against a control diet (advice on a low-fat diet). We also examined whether the MeDiet intervention was able to counteract the detrimental cardiovascular effects of an increased WHtR. The trial included 7447 participants (55-80 years old, 57% women) at high cardiovascular risk but free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at enrollment. An increased risk of CVD events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death) was apparent for the highest versus the lowest quartile of WHtR (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio: 1.98) (95% confidence interval: 1.10-3.57; linear trend: p = 0.019) only in the control-diet group, but not in the two groups allocated to intervention with MeDiet (p for interaction = 0.034). This apparent interaction suggesting that the intervention counterbalanced the detrimental cardiovascular effects of adiposity was also significant for body mass index (BMI) (p = 0.01) and waist circumference (p = 0.043). The MeDiet may counteract the harmful effects of increased adiposity on the risk of CVD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Protease, Phytase and a Bacillus sp. Direct-Fed Microbial on Nutrient and Energy Digestibility, Ileal Brush Border Digestive Enzyme Activity and Cecal Short-Chain Fatty Acid Concentration in Broiler Chickens

PubMed Central

Murugesan, Ganapathi R.; Romero, Luis F.; Persia, Michael E.

2014-01-01

Two experiments were conducted to determine the effects of protease and phytase (PP) and a Bacillus sp. direct-fed microbial (DFM) on dietary energy and nutrient utilization in broiler chickens. In the first experiment, Ross 308 broiler chicks were fed diets supplemented with PP and DFM in a 2×2 factorial arrangement. The 4 diets (control (CON), CON + PP, CON + DFM, and CON + PP + DFM) were fed from 15–21 days of age. In Experiment 1, significant interaction (P≤0.01) between PP and DFM on the apparent ileal digestibility coefficient for starch, crude protein, and amino acid indicated that both additives increased the digestibility. Both additives increased the nitrogen retention coefficient with a significant interaction (P≤0.01). Although no interaction was observed, significant main effects (P≤0.01) for nitrogen-corrected apparent ME (AMEn) for PP or DFM indicated an additive response. In a follow-up experiment, Ross 308 broiler chicks were fed the same experimental diets from 1–21 days of age. Activities of ileal brush border maltase, sucrase, and L-alanine aminopeptidase were increased (P≤0.01) by PP addition, while a trend (P = 0.07) for increased sucrase activity was observed in chickens fed DFM, in Experiment 2. The proportion of cecal butyrate was increased (P≤0.01) by DFM addition. Increased nutrient utilization and nitrogen retention appear to involve separate but complementary mechanisms for PP and DFM, however AMEn responses appear to have separate and additive mechanisms. PMID:25013936

Bans of WHO Class I Pesticides in Bangladesh-suicide prevention without hampering agricultural output.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Fazle Rabbi; Dewan, Gourab; Verma, Vasundhara R; Knipe, Duleeka W; Isha, Ishrat Tahsin; Faiz, M Abul; Gunnell, David J; Eddleston, Michael

2018-02-01

Pesticide self-poisoning is a major problem in Bangladesh. Over the past 20-years, the Bangladesh government has introduced pesticide legislation and banned highly hazardous pesticides (HHPs) from agricultural use. We aimed to assess the impacts of pesticide bans on suicide and on agricultural production. We obtained data on unnatural deaths from the Statistics Division of Bangladesh Police, and used negative binomial regression to quantify changes in pesticide suicides and unnatural deaths following removal of WHO Class I toxicity HHPs from agriculture in 2000. We assessed contemporaneous trends in other risk factors, pesticide usage and agricultural production in Bangladesh from 1996 to 2014. Mortality in hospital from pesticide poisoning fell after the 2000 ban: 15.1% vs 9.5%, relative reduction 37.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) 35.4 to 38.8%]. The pesticide poisoning suicide rate fell from 6.3/100 000 in 1996 to 2.2/100 000 in 2014, a 65.1% (52.0 to 76.7%) decline. There was a modest simultaneous increase in hanging suicides [20.0% (8.4 to 36.9%) increase] but the overall incidence of unnatural deaths fell from 14.0/100 000 to 10.5/100 000 [25.0% (18.1 to 33.0%) decline]. There were 35 071 (95% CI 25 959 to 45 666) fewer pesticide suicides in 2001 to 2014 compared with the number predicted based on trends between 1996 to 2000. This reduction in rate of pesticide suicides occurred despite increased pesticide use and no change in admissions for pesticide poisoning, with no apparent influence on agricultural output. Strengthening pesticide regulation and banning WHO Class I toxicity HHPs in Bangladesh were associated with major reductions in deaths and hospital mortality, without any apparent effect on agricultural output. Our data indicate that removing HHPs from agriculture can rapidly reduce suicides without imposing substantial agricultural costs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Does increased urination frequency protect against bladder cancer?

PubMed

Silverman, Debra T; Alguacil, Juan; Rothman, Nathaniel; Real, Francisco X; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Cantor, Kenneth P; Malats, Nuria; Tardon, Adonina; Serra, Consol; Garcia-Closas, Reina; Carrato, Alfredo; Lloreta, Josep; Samanic, Claudine; Dosemeci, Mustafa; Kogevinas, Manolis

2008-10-01

Experimental studies suggest that increased urination frequency may reduce bladder cancer risk if carcinogens are present in the urine. Only 2 small studies of the effect of increased urination frequency on bladder cancer risk in humans have been conducted with conflicting results. Our purpose was to evaluate the effect of urination frequency on risk of bladder cancer in a large, multicenter case-control study. We analyzed data based on interviews conducted with 884 patients with newly diagnosed, bladder cancer and 996 controls from 1998 to 2001 in Spain. We observed a consistent, inverse trend in risk with increasing nighttime voiding frequency in both men (p = 0.0003) and women (p = 0.07); voiding at least 2 times per night was associated with a significant, 40-50% risk reduction. The protective effect of nocturia was apparent among study participants with low, moderate and high water consumption. The risk associated with cigarette smoking was reduced by nocturia. Compared with nonsmokers who did not urinate at night, current smokers who did not urinate at night had an OR of 7.0 (95% CI = 4.7-10.2), whereas those who voided at least twice per night had an OR of 3.3 (95% CI = 1.9-5.8) (p value for trend = 0.0005). Our findings suggest a strong protective effect of nocturia on bladder cancer risk, providing evidence in humans that bladder cancer risk is related to the contact time of the urothelium with carcinogens in urine. Increased urination frequency, coupled with possible dilution of the urine from increased water intake, may diminish the effect of urinary carcinogens on bladder cancer risk.

Difficulties in tracking the long-term global trend in tropical forest area.

PubMed

Grainger, Alan

2008-01-15

The long-term trend in tropical forest area receives less scrutiny than the tropical deforestation rate. We show that constructing a reliable trend is difficult and evidence for decline is unclear, within the limits of errors involved in making global estimates. A time series for all tropical forest area, using data from Forest Resources Assessments (FRAs) of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, is dominated by three successively corrected declining trends. Inconsistencies between these trends raise questions about their reliability, especially because differences seem to result as much from errors as from changes in statistical design and use of new data. A second time series for tropical moist forest area shows no apparent decline. The latter may be masked by the errors involved, but a "forest return" effect may also be operating, in which forest regeneration in some areas offsets deforestation (but not biodiversity loss) elsewhere. A better monitoring program is needed to give a more reliable trend. Scientists who use FRA data should check how the accuracy of their findings depends on errors in the data.

Helium-isotope systematics at Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia: implications for the volcanic hydrothermal system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sano, Yuji; Wakita, Hiroshi; Williams, Stanley N.

1990-07-01

We have collected 14 water and gas samples from 9 thermal springs and gas vents near Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia. The 3He/ 4He and 4He/ 20Ne ratios vary significantly from 0.98 Ratm (where Ratm is the atmospheric 3He/ 4He ratio of 1.4 × 10 -6) to 6.30 Ratm, and from 0.37 to 7.0, respectively. The 3He/ 4He ratio (corrected for air contamination) decreases with increasing distance from the central crater of the volcano to the sampling site. The trend is very similar to that observed at Ontake volcano, Japan. A hydrodynamic porous-media dispersion model can explain the 3He/ 4He trend. The temporal variations in the 3He/ 4He ratio at four sites provide useful information on the apparent velocity of the magmatic fluid flow brought on by a volcanic eruption. The estimated value of several tens m day -1 agrees well with the inferred velocity of flow in Oshima volcano, Japan and is comparable to the largest rate of groundwater movement in a deep sedimentary basin.

On the Hiatus in the Acceleration of Tropical Upwelling Since the Beginning of the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aschmann, J.; Burrows, J. P.; Gebhardt, C.; Rozanov, A.; Hommel, R.; Weber, M.; Thompson, A. M.

2014-01-01

Chemistry-climate models predict an acceleration of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as a consequence of increasing global surface temperatures, resulting from elevated levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The observed decrease of ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere during the last decades of the 20th century is consistent with the anticipated acceleration of upwelling. However, more recent satellite observations of ozone reveal that this decrease has unexpectedly stopped in the first decade of the 21st century, challenging the implicit assumption of a continuous acceleration of tropical upwelling. In this study we use three decades of chemistry transport-model simulations (1980-2013) to investigate this phenomenon and resolve this apparent contradiction. Our model reproduces the observed tropical lower stratosphere ozone record, showing a significant decrease in the early period followed by a statistically robust trend-change after 2002. We demonstrate that this trend-change is correlated with corresponding changes in the vertical transport and conclude that a hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling occurred during the last decade.

TSNA levels in machine-generated mainstream cigarette smoke: 35 years of data.

PubMed

Appleton, Scott; Olegario, Raquel M; Lipowicz, Peter J

2013-07-01

This paper characterizes historical and current tobacco specific nitrosamine (TSNA) levels in mainstream (MS) cigarette smoke of US commercial cigarettes. To conduct this analysis, we gathered 35 years of published data of 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK) and N-nitrosonornicotine (NNN) levels in MS cigarette smoke. We also assessed internal data of MS smoke NNK and NNN levels generated from various market monitoring initiatives and from control cigarettes used in a multi-year program for testing cigarette ingredients. In all, we analyzed machine smoking data from 401 cigarette samples representing a wide range of products and design characteristics from multiple manufacturers and market leaders. There was no indication that TSNA levels systematically increased in cigarette MS smoke over the 35-year analysis period. In particular, TSNA levels expressed as either per cigarette or normalized for tar suggest a downward trend in MS smoke over the past 10 years. The apparent downward trend in TSNA levels in MS smoke may reflect industry and agricultural community efforts to reduce levels of TSNAs in tobacco and cigarette smoke. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Role of volatilization in changing TBA and MTBE concentrations at MTBE-contaminated sites.

PubMed

Eweis, Juana B; Labolle, Eric M; Benson, David A; Fogg, Graham E

2007-10-01

Tertiary butyl alcohol (TBA) is commonly found as an impurity in methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) added to gasoline. Frequent observations of high TBA, and especially rising TBA/MTBE concentration ratios, in groundwater at gasoline spill sites are generally attributed to microbial conversion of MTBE to TBA. Typically overlooked is the role of volatilization in the attenuation of these chemicals especially in the vadose zone, which is a source of contamination to groundwater. Here we show that volatilization, particularly through remediation by vapor extraction, can substantially affect the trends in TBA and MTBE concentrations and the respective mass available to impact groundwater aquifers, through the preferential removal of more volatile compounds, including MTBE, and the apparent enrichment of less volatile compounds like TBA. We demonstrate this phenomenon through numerical simulations of remedial-enhanced volatilization. Results show increases in TBA/MTBE concentration ratios consistent with ratios observed in groundwater at gasoline spill sites. Volatilization is an important, and potentially dominant, process that can result in concentration trends similar to those typically attributed to biodegradation.

The impact of communicating information about air pollution events on public health.

PubMed

McLaren, J; Williams, I D

2015-12-15

Short-term exposure to air pollution has been associated with exacerbation of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study investigated the relationship between emergency hospital admissions for asthma, COPD and episodes of poor air quality in an English city (Southampton) from 2008-2013. The city's council provides a forecasting service for poor air quality to individuals with respiratory disease to reduce preventable admissions to hospital and this has been evaluated. Trends in nitrogen dioxide, ozone and particulate matter concentrations were related to hospital admissions data using regression analysis. The impacts of air quality on emergency admissions were quantified using the relative risks associated with each pollutant. Seasonal and weekly trends were apparent for both air pollution and hospital admissions, although there was a weak relationship between the two. The air quality forecasting service proved ineffective at reducing hospital admissions. Improvements to the health forecasting service are necessary to protect the health of susceptible individuals, as there is likely to be an increasing need for such services in the future. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Statistics of Scientific Procedures on Living Animals Great Britain 2015 - highlighting an ongoing upward trend in animal use and missed opportunities.

PubMed

Hudson-Shore, Michelle

2016-12-01

The Annual Statistics of Scientific Procedures on Living Animals Great Britain 2015 indicate that the Home Office were correct in recommending that caution should be exercised when interpreting the 2014 data as an apparent decline in animal experiments. The 2015 report shows that, as the changes to the format of the annual statistics have become more familiar and less problematic, there has been a re-emergence of the upward trend in animal research and testing in Great Britain. The 2015 statistics report an increase in animal procedures (up to 4,142,631) and in the number of animals used (up to 4,069,349). This represents 1% more than the totals in 2013, and a 7% increase on the procedures reported in 2014. This paper details an analysis of these most recent statistics, providing information on overall animal use and highlighting specific issues associated with genetically-altered animals, dogs and primates. It also reflects on areas of the new format that have previously been highlighted as being problematic, and concludes with a discussion about the use of animals in regulatory research and testing, and how there are significant missed opportunities for replacing some of the animal-based tests in this area. 2016 FRAME.

Status and distribution of the Kittlitz's murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris in Kenai Fjords, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arimitsu, Mayumi L.; Piatt, John F.; Romano, Marc D.; van Pelt, Thomas I.

2011-01-01

The Kittlitz's Murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris is a candidate species for listing under the US Endangered Species Act because of its apparent declines within core population areas of coastal Alaska. During the summers of 2006-2008, we conducted surveys in marine waters adjacent to Kenai Fjords National Park, Alaska, to estimate the current population size of Kittlitz's and Marbled murrelets B. marmoratus and examine seasonal variability in distribution within coastal fjords. We also evaluated historical data to estimate trend. Based on an average of point estimates, we find the recent population (95% CI) of Kittlitz's Murrelet to be 716 (353-1080) individuals, that of Marbled Murrelet to be 6690 (5427-7953) individuals, and all Brachyramphus murrelets combined to number 8186 (6978-9393) birds. Within-season density estimates showed Kittlitz's Murrelets generally increased between June and July, but dispersed rapidly by August, while Marbled Murrelets generally increased throughout the summer. Trends in Kittlitz's and Marbled murrelet populations were difficult to assess with confidence. Methods for counting or sampling murrelets varied in early decades of study, while in later years there is uncertainty due to highly variable counts among years, which may be due in part to timing of surveys relative to the spring bloom in coastal waters of the Gulf of Alaska.

Trends in tobacco use among Thai adolescents.

PubMed

Sirirassamee, Tawima; Sirirassamee, Buppha

2013-01-01

Tobacco use continues to be the leading global cause of preventable death. Understanding the trends in prevalence of cigarette smoking and smoking behaviors among adolescents enables physicians to target prevention resources more effectively. The objectives of this study were to monitor the prevalence of smoking, to compare the prevalence of smoking in subgroups of region, gender and age, and to explore smoking behavior among adolescent smokers. The International Tobacco Control Survey-Thailand is a population-based, national representative, longitudinal survey conducted among adolescents between the ages of 13-17. Adolescents were sampled from Bangkok and 4 regions of Thailand using stratified multistage sampling. Three surveys were conducted during January 2005 to March 2008. Respondents were asked to complete self-administered questionnaires. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics. Overall, smoking prevalence has increased from 12.0% in wave 1 to 14.3% in wave 2 and 18.3% in wave 3. Smoking prevalence in males was more than 10 times higher than females. Manufactured cigarettes were most frequently used by adolescents. More than 70% of smokers reported that they smoked manufactured cigarettes. Total amount of tobacco use per day increased from wave 1 to wave 3. The proportion of smokers who reported that they bought cigarettes by themselves increased during the follow-up waves (38.3%, 60.9%, 68.2% respectively). More than 20% of smokers reported that they never plan to quit smoking. Smoking prevalence among thai adolescents was apparently increased.

[The effect of increasing tobacco tax on tobacco sales in Japan].

PubMed

Ito, Yuri; Nakamura, Masakazu

2013-09-01

Since the special tobacco tax was established in 1998, the tobacco tax and price of tobacco have increased thrice, in 2003, 2006, and 2010, respectively. We evaluated the effect of increases in tax on the consumption and sales of tobacco in Japan using the annual data on the number of tobacco products sold and the total sales from Japan Tobacco, Inc. We applied the number of tobacco products sold and the total sales per year to a joinpoint regression model to examine the trends in the data. This model could help identify the year in which a decrease or increase was apparent from the data. In addition, we examined the effect of each tax increase while also considering other factors that may have caused a decrease in the levels of tobacco consumption using the method proposed by Hirano et al. According to the joinpoint regression analysis, the number of tobacco products sold started decreasing in 1998, and the trends of decrease accelerated to 5% per year, from 2005. Owing to the tax increase, tobacco sales reduced by -2.4%, -2.9%, and -10.1% (corrected for the effect of the Tohoku Great Earthquake), and price elasticity was estimated as -0.30, -0.27, and -0.28 (corrected) in 2003, 2006, and 2010, respectively. The effect of tobacco tax increase on the decrease in tobacco sales was greatest in 2010, while the price elasticity remained almost the same as it was during the previous tax increase. The sharp hike in tobacco tax in 2010 decreased the number of tobacco products sold, while the price elasticity in 2010 was similar to that in 2003 and 2006. Our findings suggest that further increase in tobacco tax is needed to reduce the damage caused by smoking in the people of Japan.

Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the Intermountain Province of the Columbia Basin, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wielgus, Robert B.; Shipley, Lisa

2002-07-01

Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the subbasins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are not ranked as target species and are believed to be increasing throughout themore » basin because of habitat changes brought about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated ''press'' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM subbasins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend indices. Predation rates and population growth rates of deer will be determined using radio telemetry. Changes in cougar functional (kills/unit time), aggregative (cougars/unit area), numerical (offspring/cougar), and total (predation rate) responses on deer will also be monitored using radio telemetry. The experiment will be conducted and completed over a period of 5 years. Results will be used to determine the cause and try to halt the mule deer population declines. Results will also guide deer mitigation and management in the IM and throughout the North American West.« less

Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the IM Province of the Columbia Basin, Annual Report 2002-2003.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wielgus, Robert; Shipley, Lisa; Myers, Woodrow

2003-09-01

Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the sub basins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are believed to be increasing throughout the basin because of habitat changes broughtmore » about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated 'press' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM sub basins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend indices. Predation rates and population growth rates of deer will be determined using radio telemetry. Changes in cougar functional (kills/unit time), aggregative (cougars/unit area), numerical (offspring/cougar), and total (predation rate) responses on deer will also be monitored using radio telemetry. The experiment will be conducted and completed over a period of 5 years. Results will be used to determine the cause and try to halt the mule deer population declines. Results will also guide deer mitigation and management in the IM and throughout the North American West.« less

Carbon monoxide emission from small galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thronson, Harley A., Jr.; Bally, John

1987-01-01

A search was conducted for J = 1 yields 0 CO emission from 22 galaxies, detecting half, as part of a survey to study star formation in small to medium size galaxies. Although substantial variation was found in the star formation efficiencies of the sample galaxies, there is no apparent systematic trend with galaxy size.

Education and Employment. The Problems of Early School-Leavers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magnussen, Olav

The relationship between education and employment in Europe is analyzed with particular emphasis on the trends toward mass education, apparent saturation of the labor market, and a new structure of employment opportunities. The objective of the report is to contribute toward a redefinition of the nature of the education/employment relationship…

Relevance of Programs for Emotionally Disturbed Youth in Other Lands

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

David, Henry P.

1970-01-01

A survey of current trends was conducted in more than 40 countries. Focus was on the organization of services and their relevance for evolving practices in the United States. Apparent was a willingness to experiment with administrative and therapeutic roles. Ideological differences are important determinants of the organization, range, and quality…

Factors Influencing Trends in pH in the Wootton et al. (2008) Dataset

EPA Science Inventory

In this report, the dataset collected by Wootton at Tatoosh Island during 2000 through 2010 is analyzed to assess whether the apparent rapid decline in the pH data can be explained by other more localized processes. Specifically, we focused on the role of river discharge on pH l...

A Personality Development Interpretation of Employability and Disadvantaged Status with Remedial Implications: Counseling Services Report No. 21.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conrad, Rowan W.

Tracing problems observed among the Mountain-Plains student population, a trend of apparently improper or arrested personality development emerges. Observations indicate that a majority of the student population does not possess normally developed trust, autonomy, initiative, industry, sense of identity, or ability to develop intimate…

Jazz Aesthetics and the Democratic Imperative in Education: A Dialogue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mirón, Luis; Goines, Victor; Boselovic, Joseph L.

2015-01-01

What appeared decades ago as solely a European model--Thatcherism--is now a global trend with no apparent end in sight. Neoliberalism in the public sector, and within the educational sphere particularly, pervades within a larger pattern of hegemonic ideologies. In sum, market forces and global capitalism make it quite difficult for public…

Deregulation, the New Federalism, and Scarcity: The End of Additive Reform.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doyle, Denis P.

The current trend toward deregulation of education at the federal level will not prove particularly significant if deregulation does not also occur at the state level. The Reagan administration's handling of deregulation has been clumsy, slow, inappropriate, and apparently guided by motivations other than the easing of administrative burdens.…

Diagnosing Our National Disease: Trends in Income and Happiness, 1973 to 2004

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schnittker, Jason

2008-01-01

An important paradox of the happiness literature is the apparent disconnect between economic growth and happiness, referred to as the "Easterlin Paradox." Although real income has grown over the last thirty years, happiness has stagnated or perhaps even declined. There are a variety of explanations for this. Some emphasize psychological…

Urban effects on convective precipitation in Mexico city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jauregui, Ernesto; Romales, Ernesto

This paper reports on urban-related convective precipitation anomalies in a tropical city. Wet season (May-October) rainfall for an urban site (Tacubaya) shows a significant trend for the period 1941-1985 suggesting an urban effect that has been increasing as the city grew. On the other hand, rainfall at a suburban (upwind) station apparently unaffected by urbanization, has remained unchanged. Analysis of historical records of hourly precipitation for an urban station shows that the frequency of intense (> 20 mm h -1) rain showers has increased in recent decades. Using a network of automatic rainfall stations, areal distribution of 24 h isoyets show a series of maxima within the urban perimeter which may be associated to the heat island phenomenon. Isochrones of the beginning of rain are used to estimate direction and speed of movement of the rain cloud cells. The daytime heat island seems to be associated with the intensification of rain showers.

Evidence of enzymatic catalysis of oxygen reduction on stainless steels under marine biofilm.

PubMed

Faimali, Marco; Benedetti, Alessandro; Pavanello, Giovanni; Chelossi, Elisabetta; Wrubl, Federico; Mollica, Alfonso

2011-04-01

Cathodic current trends on stainless steel samples with different surface percentages covered by biofilm and potentiostatically polarized in natural seawater were studied under oxygen concentration changes, temperature increases, and additions of enzymic inhibitors to the solution. The results showed that on each surface fraction covered by biofilm the oxygen reduction kinetics resembled a reaction catalyzed by an immobilised enzyme with high oxygen affinity (apparent Michaelis-Menten dissociation constant close to K(O(2))(M)  ≈ 10 μM) and low activation energy (W ≈ 20 KJ mole(-1)). The proposed enzyme rapidly degraded when the temperature was increased above the ambient (half-life time of ∼1 day at 25°C, and of a few minutes at 50°C). Furthermore, when reversible enzymic inhibitors (eg sodium azide and cyanide) were added, the cathodic current induced by biofilm growth was inhibited.

Temporal Trends and Pattern Changes of Short- and Medium-Chain Chlorinated Paraffins in Marine Mammals from the South China Sea over the Past Decade.

PubMed

Zeng, Lixi; Lam, James C W; Wang, Yawei; Jiang, Guibin; Lam, Paul K S

2015-10-06

Temporal trends of short- (SCCPs) and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins (MCCPs) were examined in blubber samples of 50 finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides) and 25 Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) collected from the South China Sea between 2004 and 2014. Elevated levels of SCCPs and MCCPs were detected in all blubber samples of both cetacean species. Concentrations of SCCPs ranged from 280 to 3900 ng·g(-1) dry weight (dw) in porpoises and from 430 to 9100 ng·g(-1) dw in dolphins, while concentrations of MCCPs ranged from 320 to 8600 ng·g(-1) dw in porpoises and from 530 to 23 000 ng·g(-1) dw in dolphins. Significantly higher concentrations were present in dolphins than porpoises due to their exposure levels in their living habitats. Strongly linear correlations existed between SCCPs and MCCPs, but there were no significant concentration differences between the genders of the two cetacean species in the same sampling year. Significantly temporal increasing trends of ∑SCCPs and ∑MCCPs have been observed in both porpoise and dolphin samples over the past decade, which reflect the influence of histories of production and usage on the bioaccumulation of CPs in marine mammals in China. An apparent temporal shift trend from SCCPs to MCCPs was also observed in CP accumulation profiles. Complex environmental fractionation from localized sources in the study region via atmospheric transport, oceanic/offshore water transport, and trophic transfer have resulted in different CP accumulation levels and homologue patterns in the two cetacean species. This is the first report of systematic temporal trends of SCCPs and MCCPs in marine mammals.

Global trends in world fisheries: impacts on marine ecosystems and food security.

PubMed

Pauly, Daniel; Watson, Reg; Alder, Jackie

2005-01-29

This contribution, which reviews some broad trends in human history and in the history of fishing, argues that sustainability, however defined, rarely if ever occurred as a result of an explicit policy, but as result of our inability to access a major part of exploited stocks. With the development of industrial fishing, and the resulting invasion of the refuges previously provided by distance and depth, our interactions with fisheries resources have come to resemble the wars of extermination that newly arrived hunters conducted 40,000-50,000 years ago in Australia, and 11,000-13,000 years ago against large terrestrial mammals arrived in North America. These broad trends are documented here through a map of change in fish sizes, which displays characteristic declines, first in the nearshore waters of industrialized countries of the Northern Hemisphere, then spread offshore and to the Southern Hemisphere. This geographical extension met its natural limit in the late 1980s, when the catches from newly accessed stocks ceased to compensate for the collapse in areas accessed earlier, hence leading to a gradual decline of global landing. These trends affect developing countries more than the developed world, which have been able to meet the shortfall by increasing imports from developing countries. These trends, however, together with the rapid growth of farming of carnivorous fishes, which consumes other fishes suited for human consumption, have led to serious food security issues. This promotes urgency to the implementation of the remedies traditionally proposed to alleviate overfishing (reduction of overcapacity, enforcement of conservative total allowable catches, etc.), and to the implementation of non-conventional approaches, notably the re-establishment of the refuges (also known as marine reserves), which made possible the apparent sustainability of pre-industrial fisheries.

Estimating terrestrial water storage changes in the Tarim River Basin using GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Kefei; Li, Xia

2017-12-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a fundamental role in the arid Tarim River Basin, which is mainly fed by glacier and snow melt water. However, the significant scarcity of ground-based observations, especially in the high-altitude mountain areas, limits our understanding of TWS changes in this region. In this study, TWS variations in the Tarim River Basin were estimated using monthly GRACE Level 2 Release 5 (RL05) products from 2002 to August 2015. The GRACE results were validated against outputs of Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) including spatial and temporal correlation analysis. The correlation between the regional TWS time-series of GRACE and GLDAS is 0.7777. It was found that GRACE TWS shows a slightly decreasing trend of -1.4069 ± 0.5060 mm yr-1 in the entire Tarim River Basin during the study period and a significant spatial difference over the study area. An apparent decreasing trend in Tien Shan and the Taklamakan Desert, and a significant increasing trend in the Kunlun Mountains and eastern Pamirs Plateau were also detected. Moreover, seasonal analysis of regional TWS time-series, precipitation and the 0 °C isotherm height in summer showed that detrended TWS variations were consistent with precipitation while long-term trends of TWS were contrary to that of the 0 °C isotherm height in summer. It implied that the interannual TWS variations were dominated by precipitation and the long-term trend of TWS changes was affected by changes of the 0 °C isotherm height in summer. This information could enrich our knowledge about water storage changes, including glacier mass balance and groundwater, and its response to climate change in this vast but sparse in-situ measurements area.

Global trends in world fisheries: impacts on marine ecosystems and food security

PubMed Central

Pauly, Daniel; Watson, Reg; Alder, Jackie

2005-01-01

This contribution, which reviews some broad trends in human history and in the history of fishing, argues that sustainability, however defined, rarely if ever occurred as a result of an explicit policy, but as result of our inability to access a major part of exploited stocks. With the development of industrial fishing, and the resulting invasion of the refuges previously provided by distance and depth, our interactions with fisheries resources have come to resemble the wars of extermination that newly arrived hunters conducted 40 000–50 000 years ago in Australia, and 12 000–13 000 years ago against large terrestrial mammals in North America. These broad trends are documented here through a map of change in fish sizes, which displays characteristic declines, first in the nearshore waters of industrialized countries of the Northern Hemisphere, then spread offshore and to the Southern Hemisphere. This geographical extension met its natural limit in the late 1980s, when the catches from newly accessed stocks ceased to compensate for the collapse in areas accessed earlier, hence leading to a gradual decline of global landing. These trends affect developing countries more than the developed world, which have been able to meet the shortfall by increasing imports from developing countries. These trends, however, together with the rapid growth of farming of carnivorous fishes, which consumes other fishes suited for human consumption, have led to serious food security issues. This promotes urgency to the implementation of the remedies traditionally proposed to alleviate overfishing (reduction of overcapacity, enforcement of conservative total allowable catches, etc.), and to the implementation of non-conventional approaches, notably the re-establishment of the refuges (also known as marine reserves), which made possible the apparent sustainability of pre-industrial fisheries. PMID:15713585

Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species.

PubMed

Inouye, D W; Barr, B; Armitage, K B; Inouye, B D

2000-02-15

Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species.

Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species

PubMed Central

Inouye, David W.; Barr, Billy; Armitage, Kenneth B.; Inouye, Brian D.

2000-01-01

Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species. PMID:10677510

Assessment of atmospheric acidified pollutants trends observed by EANET in North-East Asia in the first decade of XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2015-04-01

Owing to rapid development and subsequent enormous increase in energy consumption/fossil fuel use, anthropogenic emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides in China and other Asian countries surpass those in North America and Europe since mid-1990s. Consequently, regional air pollution has become an issue for the most of developing countries in North-East Asia. Since 1998, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) provides constant monitoring of the air quality and precipitation (including gaseous and particulate phase chemistry) in 13 countries of the region. The measurements are conducted at 45 rural and remote stations using both filter pack sampling techniques and automatic monitoring equipment. In this study we present a comprehensive trend analysis of the long-term (last 15 years) air pollution monitoring data from selected EANET monitoring sites. Using several statistical approaches, we estimate the quality of the data and perform distribution tests, single out special events (detect outliers) and calculate an ensemble of trends (monthly, seasonal, long-term and quartile) and their statistical significance for a suite of observed compounds. Based on this analysis, we further estimate the statistics and overall significance of the observed temporal dynamics for each pollutant. Ultimately we derive more than 20 trend estimates for a total of up to 12 gas-phase and particulate compounds for each station. Our calculations ascertain that about half of the trends (either negative or positive) observed at the EANET stations in Russia, Korea and Japan are significant. Whilst an increase in SO2, HCl, Cl-, NO3 (except for the stations in Russia) concentrations is distinct, small or insignificant trends are reckoned for HNO3-. A marked decrease in K+ content is seen at all regarded stations. We commonly find station-wise correlation for the trends of the remaining compounds, and for several species we conclude a general spatial pattern, viz. an eastward increase in trend magnitudes in the north-south direction. We further identify special cases of statistically significant seasonal trends for the series that otherwise do not exhibit apparent long-term dynamics, i.e. show an insignificant overall trend. A case in point is the NH3 observational record at Mondy station (Russia), for which the spring-summer negative trends are comparable to the winter positive trends, and both significant. Finally, we discuss and compare these first results with an evaluation of changes in acid deposition over region from 2000 provided by WMO PC-SAG in its global wet deposition assessment (Vet et al., 2014). References: Vet, R., Artz, R. S., Carou, S., Shaw, M., Ro, C. U., Aas, W., Baker, A., Bowersox, V. C., Dentener, F., Galy Lacaux, C., Hou, A., Pienaar, J. J., Gillett, R., Forti, M. C., Gromov, S., Hara, H., Khodzher, T., Mahowald, N. M., Nickovic, S., Rao, P. S. P., and Reid, N. W.: A global assessment of precipitation chemistry and deposition of sulfur, nitrogen, sea salt, base cations, organic acids, acidity and pH, and phosphorus. Atmos. Environ., 93, 3-100, 2014.

Time trends and epidemiological patterns of perinatal lamb mortality in Norway.

PubMed

Holmøy, Ingrid Hunter; Waage, Steinar

2015-09-30

Perinatal mortality is a major cause of loss in the sheep industry. Our aim was to explore time trends in crude population stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Norway. We used data on 6,435,715 lambs from flocks enrolled in the Norwegian Sheep Recording System (NSRS) from 2000 through 2010 for descriptive analysis of trends. Longitudinal patterns of mortality rates were compared for lambs within different levels of variables suspected to be associated with perinatal loss. There was an approximately linear increase in the annual proportion of stillborn lambs during the study period, from 3.3 % in 2000 to 4.7 % in 2010. In the same time period, average litter size of ewes in NSRS flocks increased from 2.00 to 2.19. However, a steady rise in stillbirth rate was observed within each litter size group, suggesting a gradually increasing impact on stillbirth risk of other, yet unidentified, factors. Average flock size increased during the study period. The highest stillbirth rates were found in the largest and smallest flocks. Early neonatal mortality rates (0-5 days of life) varied from year to year (minimum 2.2 %, maximum 3.2 %) and were invariably higher among triplets and quadruplets than among singletons and twins. Annual fluctuations were parallel within the various litter sizes. A significant overall decreasing trend was present within all litter sizes with the exception of singletons. Weather data for the prime lambing months (April and May) 2000-2010 indicated a relationship between low temperatures and high neonatal mortality rates. At the flock level, there was a significant positive correlation between stillbirths and early neonatal mortality rates (r = 0.13), between stillbirth rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.43) and between early neonatal mortality rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.40). The substantial increase in ovine stillbirth rate in recent years in Norway was to some extent related to a corresponding increase in the proportion of lambs in triplet or larger litters; however, other factors apparently have contributed. Early neonatal mortality rate exhibited year-to-year variations, partly following temperature fluctuations, which is somewhat unexpected, considering that lambing mainly occurs indoors in Norway.

Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toihir, Abdoulwahab Mohamed; Portafaix, Thierry; Sivakumar, Venkataraman; Bencherif, Hassan; Pazmiño, Andréa; Bègue, Nelson

2018-03-01

Long-term variability in ozone trends was assessed over eight Southern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical sites (Natal, Nairobi, Ascension Island, Java, Samoa, Fiji, Reunion and Irene), using total column ozone data (TCO) and vertical ozone profiles (altitude range 15-30 km) recorded during the period January 1998-December 2012. The TCO datasets were constructed by combination of satellite data (OMI and TOMS) and ground-based observations recorded using Dobson and SAOZ spectrometers. Vertical ozone profiles were obtained from balloon-sonde experiments which were operated within the framework of the SHADOZ network. The analysis in this study was performed using the Trend-Run model. This is a multivariate regression model based on the principle of separating the variations of ozone time series into a sum of several forcings (annual and semi-annual oscillations, QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), ENSO, 11-year solar cycle) that account for most of its variability. The trend value is calculated based on the slope of a normalized linear function which is one of the forcing parameters included in the model. Three regions were defined as follows: equatorial (0-10° S), tropical (10-20° S) and subtropical (20-30° S). Results obtained indicate that ozone variability is dominated by seasonal and quasi-biennial oscillations. The ENSO contribution is observed to be significant in the tropical lower stratosphere and especially over the Pacific sites (Samoa and Java). The annual cycle of ozone is observed to be the most dominant mode of variability for all the sites and presents a meridional signature with a maximum over the subtropics, while semi-annual and quasi-biannual ozone modes are more apparent over the equatorial region, and their magnitude decreases southward. The ozone variation mode linked to the QBO signal is observed between altitudes of 20 and 28 km. Over the equatorial zone there is a strong signal at ˜ 26 km, where 58 % ±2 % of total ozone variability is explained by the effect of QBO. Annual ozone oscillations are more apparent at two different altitude ranges (below 24 km and in the 27-30 km altitude band) over the tropical and subtropical regions, while the semi-annual oscillations are more significant over the 27-30 km altitude range in the tropical and equatorial regions. The estimated trend in TCO is positive and not significant and corresponds to a variation of ˜ 1.34±0.50 % decade-1 (averaged over the three regions). The trend estimated within the equatorial region (0-15° S) is less than 1 % per decade, while it is assessed at more than 1.5 % decade-1 for all the sites located southward of 17° S. With regard to the vertical distribution of trend estimates, a positive trend in ozone concentration is obtained in the 22-30 km altitude range, while a delay in ozone improvement is apparent in the UT-LS (upper troposphere-lower stratosphere) below 22 km. This is especially noticeable at approximately 19 km, where a negative value is observed in the tropical regions.

Do sexual health campaigns work? An outcome evaluation of a media campaign to increase chlamydia testing among young people aged 15–24 in England

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A national multimedia campaign was launched in January 2010, to increase the proportion of young people tested for chlamydia. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the campaign on the coverage and positivity within the National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NSCP) in England. Method An interrupted time series of anonymised NCSP testing reports for England for a 27 month period (1st April 2008 to 30th June 2010) was analysed. Reports were assigned to a pre-campaign, campaign and post campaign phase according to the test date. Exclusion criteria included tests for clinical reasons, contacts of known cases, and tests returned from prisons or military services. Negative binomial and logistic regression modelling was used to provide an estimate for the change in coverage and positivity, during, and after the campaign and estimates were adjusted for secular and cyclical trends. Results Adjusting for cyclical and secular trends, there was no change in the overall testing coverage either during (RR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.72-1.14) or after (RR: 0.88; 95%CI: 0.69-1.11) the campaign. The coverage varied amongst different socio-demographic groups, testing of men increased during the campaign phase while testing of people of black and other ethnic groups fell in this phase. The positivity rate was increased during the campaign (OR: 1.18; 95% CI 1.13-1.23) and further increased in the post-campaign phase (OR: 1.40; 95% CI 1.30-1.51). The proportion of chlamydia infections detected increased for all socio-demographic and self-reported sexual behaviour groups both during and after the campaign. Conclusion The uptake of chlamydia testing rose during the campaign; however, this apparent increase was not maintained once overall trends in testing were taken into account. Nonetheless, once secular and cyclical trends were controlled for, the campaign was associated with an increased positivity linked to increased testing of high risk individuals groups in the target population who were previously less likely to come forward for testing. However, our study indicated that there may have been a disparity in the impact of the campaign on different population groups. The content and delivery of ongoing and future information campaigns aimed at increasing chlamydia screening should be carefully developed so that they are relevant to all sections of the target population. PMID:23683345

Morphology, stratigraphy, and surface roughness properties of Venusian lava flow fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrnes, Jeffrey M.; Crown, David A.

2002-10-01

Morphologic characteristics, flow stratigraphy, and radar backscatter properties of five lava flow fields on Venus (Turgmam Fluctus, Zipaltonal Fluctus, Tuli Mons/Uilata Fluctus, Var Mons, and Mylitta Fluctus) were examined to understand flow field emplacement mechanisms and relationships to other surface processes. These analyses indicate that the flow fields studied developed through emplacement of numerous, thin flow units, presumably over extended periods of time. Although the Venusian fields display flow morphologies similar to those observed within terrestrial flow fields, the Venusian flow units are significantly larger and have a larger range of radar backscatter coefficients. Both simple and compound flow emplacement appear to have occurred within the flow fields. A potential correlation between flow rheology and radar brightness is suggested by differences in planform morphology, apparent flow thickness, and apparent sensitivity to topography between bright and dark flows. Distributary flow morphologies may result from tube-fed flows, and postemplacement modification by processes such as flow inflation and crustal foundering is consistent with discrete zones of increased radar brightness within individual flow lobes. Mapping of these flow fields does not indicate any simple evolutionary trend in eruptive/resurfacing style within the flow fields, or any consistent temporal sequence relative to other tectonic and volcanic features.

Dietary inequalities: what is the evidence for the effect of the neighbourhood food environment?

PubMed Central

Black, Christina; Moon, Graham; Baird, Janis

2016-01-01

This review summarises the evidence for inequalities in community and consumer nutrition environments from ten previous review articles, and also assesses the evidence for the effect of the community and consumer nutrition environments on dietary intake. There is evidence for inequalities in food access in the US but trends are less apparent in other developed countries. There is a trend for greater access and availability to healthy and less healthy foods relating to better and poorer dietary outcomes respectively. Trends for price show that higher prices of healthy foods are associated with better dietary outcomes. More nuanced measures of the food environment, including multi-dimensional and individualised approaches, would enhance the state of the evidence and help inform future interventions. PMID:24200470

[Healthcare expenditures growth: the red herring of demographic ageing?].

PubMed

Tenand, Marianne

2016-02-01

Demographic ageing is often deemed responsible for the massive increase in health expenditures experienced by developed countries. As the elderly consume more medical care than the rest of the population, how could the increase in the share of the 60 + not lead to a marked expansion of healthcare public and private budgets? Despite its apparent logics, such reasoning is fallacious: it ignores that medical care consumption depends on many factors beyond age, which have tremendously evolved in the last decades and may change again in the future. Based on French stylized facts, this article provides an overview of the international literature that aimed at disentangling the respective roles of population ageing and of the non-demographic factors in explaining the dynamics of health expenditures. Paradoxically, technical medical progress has been a major contributor to the increase of healthcare spending. Results from economics research lead to qualify the impact of demographic trends and call for more attention to the public policies decisions that shape healthcare systems. © 2016 médecine/sciences – Inserm.

Multiple-class antimicrobial resistance surveillance in swine Escherichia coli F4, Pasteurella multocida and Streptococcus suis isolates from Ontario and the impact of the 2004-2006 Porcine Circovirus type-2 Associated Disease outbreak.

PubMed

Glass-Kaastra, Shiona K; Pearl, David L; Reid-Smith, Richard; McEwen, Beverly; Slavic, Durda; Fairles, Jim; McEwen, Scott A

2014-02-01

The objective of this work was to describe trends in multiple-class antimicrobial resistance present in clinical isolates of Escherichia coli F4, Pasteurella multocida and Streptococcus suis from Ontario swine 1998-2010. Temporal changes in multiple-class resistance varied by the pathogens examined; significant yearly changes were apparent for the E. coli and P. multocida data. Although not present in the E. coli data, significant increases in multiple-class resistance within P. multocida isolates occurred from 2003 to 2005, coinciding with the expected increase in antimicrobials used to treat clinical signs of Porcine Circovirus Associated Disease (PCVAD) before it was confirmed. Prospective temporal scan statistics for multiple-class resistance suggest that significant clusters of increased resistance may have been found in the spring of 2004; months before the identification of the PCVAD outbreak in the fall of 2004. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Virtual increase or latent loss? A reassessment of mangrove populations and their conservation in Guangdong, southern China.

PubMed

Peng, Yisheng; Zheng, Mingxuan; Zheng, Zhouxiang; Wu, Guichang; Chen, Yuechao; Xu, Hualin; Tian, Guanghong; Peng, Shenghua; Chen, Guizhu; Lee, Shing Yip

2016-08-30

Contrary to the global trend, the area of mangrove in Guangdong Province, southern China, has been increasing over the last two decades. Currently, three exotic mangrove species have been introduced for large-scale afforestation since 1985. A reassessment of the overall status of the mangrove species, habitat change, population of introduced species, was conducted through a comprehensive literature review as well as field investigations covering 96 sites. The success of conservation efforts is also evaluated. Upstream and high intertidal habitats are more vulnerable than downstream and lower intertidal ones, with habitat alteration being the biggest threats. Five mangrove species have narrow distributional extents with small populations, which could incur regional extinction. With the introduced species having naturalized at 42 sites, their role in mangrove management needs to be reconsidered. These findings collectively suggest a need to manage latent species loss and habitat degradation beyond the apparent increase in mangrove area and protection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of corn gluten feed inclusion at graded levels in a corn-soybean diet on the ileal and fecal digestibility of growing pigs

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This study aimed to determine the effect of the inclusion of corn gluten feed (CGF) on the apparent and standardized ileal digestibility of protein and amino acids and the apparent ileal and total tract digestibility of energy in growing pigs. The study was performed using 16 barrows (weight, 45.3 ± 4.5 kg) that were fitted with a T cannula at the terminal ileum. There were four treatments: a corn-soybean diet without CGF and three corn-soybean diets containing increasing levels of CGF (65, 130, and 195 g/kg). Data were analyzed according to a randomized complete block design, four blocks with four pigs each (one pig per treatment). The trend of the response (linear or quadratic) was determined using orthogonal contrasts, and when a linear effect was determined, a linear equation was obtained. Results The results showed that the inclusion up to 195 g/kg of CGF in the corn-soybean diet did not diminish the ileal digestibility (apparent and standardized) of protein and amino acids (P > 0.05), except that of phenylalanine, cystine, and proline. A linear decrease (P < 0.05) per gram of CGF added to the diet in the apparent and standardized ileal digestibility of phenylalanine (0.011 and 0.015 percentage units, respectively), cystine (0.048 and 0.043 percentage units, respectively), and proline (0.045 and 0.047 percentage units, respectively) was noted. Similarly, ileal digestibility of dry matter and energy were adversely affected (reduced by 0.028 and 0.025 percentage units, respectively, per gram of CGF increment in the diet). A significant (P < 0.05) linear reduction in total tract digestibility with increase in CGF amount in the diet was observed for energy (0.027 percentage units), dry matter (0.027 percentage units), crude protein (0.020 percentage units), and neutral detergent fiber (0.041 percentage units) per gram of CGF added to the diet. Conclusion CGF did not affect the ileal digestibility of protein and most amino acids but reduced the ileal and total tract digestibility of energy. PMID:25279142

Impacts of precipitation and temperature trends on different time scales on the water cycle and water resource availability in mountainous Mediterranean catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2017-04-01

Climatology trends, precipitation and temperature variations condition the hydrological evolution of the river flow response at basin and sub-basin scales. The link between both climate and flow trends is crucial in mountainous areas, where small variations in temperature can produce significant impacts on precipitation (occurrence as rainfall or snowfall), snowmelt and evaporation, and consequently very different flow signatures. This importance is greater in semiarid regions, where the high variability of the climatic annual and seasonal regimes usually amplifies this impact on river flow. The Sierra Nevada National Park (Southern Spain), with altitudes ranging from 2000 to 3500 m.a.s.l., is part of the global climate change observatories network and a clear example of snow regions in a semiarid environment. This mountain range is head of different catchments, being the Guadalfeo River Basin one of the most influenced by the snow regime. This study shows the observed 55-year (1961-2015) trends of annual precipitation and daily mean temperature, and the associated impacts on snowfall and snow persistence, and the resulting trend of the annual river flow in the Guadalfeo River Basin (Southern Spain), a semiarid abrupt mountainous area (up to 3450 m a.s.l.) facing the Mediterranean Sea where the Alpine and Mediterranean climates coexist in a domain highly influenced by the snow regime, and a significant seasonality in the flow regime. The annual precipitation and annual daily mean temperature experimented a decreasing trend of 2.05 mm/year and an increasing trend of 0.037 °C/year, respectively, during the study period, with a high variability on a decadal basis. However, the torrential precipitation events are more frequent in the last few years of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. The estimated annual snowfall trend shows a decreasing trend of 0.24 mm/year, associated to the decrease of precipitation rather than to temperature increase. From the analyses of river flow observations and hydrological modelling, these trends result in an estimated decreasing annual trend of the mean river inflow to reservoirs of 0.091 m3/s, which is equivalent to a mean loss of 2.87 hm3/year during the study period. Nonetheless, these results are associated to a high variability of both extreme values and the annual and decadal values. Moreover, the decrease of the annual inflow is approximately a 25% higher than the loss of precipitation, due to the impact on the different water fluxes from the snowpack associated to the enhanced torrential behaviour of both snowfall/rainfall occurrence and snow persistence. The results show the complexity of hydrological processes in Mediterranean regions, especially under the snow influence, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area, with a decrease of the available water resource volume in the medium and long term. However, on an annual basis, years with an intense snowfall regime but mild and longer dry periods result in a significant increase of the annual river flow and water storage. Reservoir operation criteria and water allocation should undergo a revision based on hydrological modelling of the snow regions and scenario analysis.

Stress Drop and Its Relationship to Radiated Energy, Ground Motion and Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltay, A.

2014-12-01

Despite the seemingly diverse circumstances under which crustal earthquakes occur, scale-invariant stress drop and apparent stress, the ratio of radiated seismic energy to moment, is observed. The magnitude-independence of these parameters is central to our understanding of both earthquake physics and strong ground motion genesis. Estimates of stress drop and radiated energy, however, display large amounts of scatter potentially masking any secondary trends in the data. We investigate sources of this uncertainty within the framework of constant stress drop and apparent stress. We first re-visit estimates of energy and stress drop from a variety of earthquake observations and methods, for events ranging from magnitude ~2 to ~9. Using an empirical Green's function (eGf) deconvolution method, which removes the path and site effects, radiated energy and Brune stress drop are estimated for both regional events in the western US and Eastern Honshu, Japan from the HiNet network, as well as teleseismically recorded global great earthquakes [Baltay et al., 2010, 2011, 2014]. In addition to eGf methods, ground-motion based metrics for stress drop are considered, using both KikNet data from Japan [Baltay et al., 2013] and the NGA-West2 data, a very well curated ground-motion database. Both the eGf-based stress drop estimates and those from the NGA-West2 database show a marked decrease in scatter, allowing us to identify deterministic secondary trends in stress drop. We find both an increasing stress drop with depth, as well as a larger stress drop of about 30% on average for mainshock events as compared to on-fault aftershocks. While both of these effects are already included in some ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE), many previous seismological studies have been unable to conclusively uncover these trends because of their considerable scatter. Elucidating these effects in the context of reduced and quantified epistemic uncertainty can help both seismologists and engineers to understand the true aleatory variability of the earthquake source, which may be due to the complex and diverse circumstances under which these earthquake occur and which we are yet unable to model.

Post seismic deformation associated with the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

1997-01-01

Following the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, a linear array of 10 geodetic monuments at roughly 5-km spacing was established across the Emerson fault segment of the Landers rupture. The array trends perpendicular to the local strike of the fault segment and extends about 30 km on either side of it. The array was surveyed by Global Positioning System 0.034, 0.048, 0.381, 1.27, 1.88, 2.60, and 3.42 years after the Landers earthquake to measure both the spatial and temporal character of the postearthquake relaxation. The temporal behavior is described roughly by a short-term (decay time 84±23 days) exponential relaxation superimposed upon an apparently linear trend. Because the linear trend represents motions much more rapid than the observed preseismic motions, we attribute that trend to a slower (decay time greater than 5 years) postseismic relaxation, the curvature of which cannot be resolved in the short run (3.4 years) of postseismic data. About 100 mm of right-lateral displacement and 50 mm of fault-normal displacement accumulated across the geodetic array in the 3.4-year interval covered by the postseismic surveys. Those displacements are attributed to postseismic, right-lateral slip in the depth interval 10 to 30 km on the downward extension of the rupture trace. The right-lateral slip amounted to about 1 m directly beneath the geodetic array, and the fault-normal displacement is apparently primarily a consequence of the curvature of the rupture. These conclusions are based upon dislocation models fit to the observed deformation. However, no dislocation model was found with rms residuals as small as the expected observational error.

Evaluating the Influence of Solar Radiation, Coral Extension Rate and Anthropogenic CO2 on Skeletal δ13C in a Network of Fiji and Tonga Porites Corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dassie, E. P.; Lemley, G. M.; Linsley, B. K.; Howe, S. S.

2011-12-01

While stable oxygen isotope signatures in coral reefs have proven to be reliable recorders of temperature and salinity, it is difficult to interpret their skeletal 13C/12C signatures. Various studies have suggested that coral skeletal δ13C is primarily controlled by complex physiological mechanisms. However, it has also been proposed that δ13C variations in coral skeletons are related to more apparent factors such as solar radiation, skeletal extension rate, and the anthropogenic addition of 13C-depleted CO2 into the atmosphere and surface ocean ("Suess Effect"). We will present time-series variations of δ13C in six coral cores from Fiji and Tonga (South Pacific Ocean). On seasonal timescales, increases in solar radiation are correlated to increases in skeletal δ13C and visa-versa. Annually averaged data shows a correlation between increased coral δ13C and reduced coral extension rate, while a decrease in δ13C is associated with an increased extension rate. In the most recent portion of four of the coral δ13C records (from around 1900 to the core top), the value progressively decreases - a trend that is not present in either the skeletal extension rate or solar radiation data. We conclude that this decreasing δ13C trend is a consequence of the Suess Effect, as reported in other coral δ13C records. However, two of the six corals do not show this decreasing trend, which may be a result of their residence in especially shallow water (sub-tidal environments). The onset of the Suess effect in the four corals may help constrain the timing of the uptake of anthropogenic carbon by the western South Pacific Ocean. Although all factors controlling δ13C variation in corals are not completely understood, this study works towards an understanding of their relative contribution to δ13C variation.

The response of soil and stream chemistry to decreases in acid deposition in the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

McHale, Michael; Burns, Douglas A.; Siemion, Jason; Antidormi, Michael

2017-01-01

The Catskill Mountains have been adversely impacted by decades of acid deposition, however, since the early 1990s, levels have decreased sharply as a result of decreases in emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. This study examines trends in acid deposition, stream-water chemistry, and soil chemistry in the southeastern Catskill Mountains. We measured significant reductions in acid deposition and improvement in stream-water quality in 5 streams included in this study from 1992 to 2014. The largest, most significant trends were for sulfate (SO42−) concentrations (mean trend of −2.5 μeq L−1 yr−1); hydrogen ion (H+) and inorganic monomeric aluminum (Alim) also decreased significantly (mean trends of −0.3 μeq L−1 yr−1 for H+ and −0.1 μeq L−1 yr−1 for Alim for the 3 most acidic sites). Acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) increased by a mean of 0.65 μeq L−1 yr−1 for all 5 sites, which was 4 fold less than the decrease in SO42−concentrations. These upward trends in ANC were limited by coincident decreases in base cations (−1.3 μeq L−1 yr−1 for calcium + magnesium). No significant trends were detected in stream-water nitrate (NO3−) concentrations despite significant decreasing trends in NO3− wet deposition. We measured no recovery in soil chemistry which we attributed to an initially low soil buffering capacity that has been further depleted by decades of acid deposition. Tightly coupled decreasing trends in stream-water silicon (Si) (−0.2 μeq L−1 yr−1) and base cations suggest a decrease in the soil mineral weathering rate. We hypothesize that a decrease in the ionic strength of soil water and shallow groundwater may be the principal driver of this apparent decrease in the weathering rate. A decreasing weathering rate would help to explain the slow recovery of stream pH and ANC as well as that of soil base cations.

Temporal trends (1987-2002) of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) chemicals in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada.

PubMed

Lebeuf, Michel; Noël, Michelle; Trottier, Steve; Measures, Lena

2007-09-20

Temporal trends of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) chemicals were examined in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE), Canada. Blubber samples of 86 adult belugas were collected from animals stranded on the shore of the SLE between 1987 and 2002 and analyzed for several regulated PBTs, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), p,p'dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and its metabolites, chlordane (CHL) and related compounds, hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers, hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and Mirex. In addition, time trends of tris(4-chlorophenyl)methane (TCPMe) and tris(4-chlorophenyl)methanol (TCPMOH), two compounds that may origin from DDT formulations, were also examined. Concentrations of most of the PBTs examined had exponentially decreased by at least a factor of two (half-life time (t(1/2))<15 years) in beluga between 1987 and 2002 while no increasing trends were observed for any of the PBTs measured. The decreasing trends of PBT concentrations in SLE beluga may be due to a decline in contamination of its diet following North American and international regulations on the use and production of these compounds or by a change in its diet itself or by a combination of both. Some PBTs did not exhibit any significant trends in beluga possibly because the most intense elimination phase subsequent to legislative regulations occurred prior to the 1987-2002 time period. Other chemicals, such gamma-HCH, did not significantly decrease likely because they are still currently used in some restricted applications. Conversely, alpha-HCH showed a significant decreasing trend indicating that SigmaHCHs is not representative of all HCHs. Both TCPMe and TCPMOH exhibited no trends in beluga during the time period examined. The metabolic capacity of SLE beluga has apparently accelerated the depletion of at least one PBT, namely CB-28/31. A significant relationship between the half-life of PBTs in beluga and log Kow was observed for most of the chemicals examined. Several factors are expected to have influenced the temporal changes of PBT concentrations in beluga which limit the usefulness of this species as a bioindicator of changes in PBT contamination in the SLE ecosystem.

Trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in stream morphology in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 1939-99

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2000-01-01

The Fountain Creek watershed, located in and along the eastern slope of the Front Range section of the southern Rocky Mountains, drains approximately 930 square miles of parts of Teller, El Paso, and Pueblo Counties in eastern Colorado. Streamflow in the watershed is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff and storm runoff during the summer monsoon season. Flooding during the 1990?s has resulted in increased streambank erosion. Property loss and damage associated with flooding and bank erosion has cost area residents, businesses, utilities, municipalities, and State and Federal agencies millions of dollars. Precipitation (4 stations) and streamflow (6 stations) data, aerial photographs, and channel reconnaissance were used to evaluate trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in channel morphology. Trends were evaluated for pre-1977, post-1976, and period-of-record time periods. Analysis revealed the lack of trend in total annual and seasonal precipitation during the pre-1977 time period. In general, the analysis also revealed the lack of trend in seasonal precipitation for all except the spring season during the post-1976 time period. Trend analysis revealed a significant upward trend in long-term (period of record) total annual and spring precipitation data, apparently due to a change in total annual precipitation throughout the Fountain Creek watershed. During the pre-1977 time period, precipitation was generally below average; during the post- 1976 time period, total annual precipitation was generally above average. During the post- 1976 time period, an upward trend in total annual and spring precipitation was indicated at two stations. Because two of four stations evaluated had upward trends for the post-1976 period and storms that produce the most precipitation are isolated convection storms, it is plausible that other parts of the watershed had upward precipitation trends that could affect trends in streamflow. Also, because of the isolated nature of convection storms that hit some areas of the watershed and not others, it is difficult to draw strong conclusions on relations between streamflow and precipitation. Trends in annual instantaneous peak streamflow, 70th percentile, 90th percentile, maximum daily-mean streamflow (100th percentile), 7-, 14-, and 30-day high daily-mean stream- flow duration, minimum daily-mean streamflow (0th percentile), 10th percentile, 30th percentile, and 7-, 14-, 30-day low daily-mean streamflow duration were evaluated. In general, instantaneous peak streamflow has not changed significantly at most of the stations evaluated. Trend analysis revealed the lack of a significant upward trend in streamflow at all stations for the pre-1977 time period. Trend tests indicated a significant upward trend in high and low daily-mean streamflow statistics for the post-1976 period. Upward trends in high daily-mean streamflow statistics may be an indication that changes in land use within the watershed have increased the rate and magnitude of runoff. Upward trends in low daily-mean 2 Trends in Precipitation and Streamflow and Changes in Stream Morphology in the Fountain Creek Watershed, Colorado, 1939-99 streamflow statistics may be related to changes in water use and management. An analysis of the relation between streamflow and precipitation indicated that changes in water management have had a marked effect on streamflow. Observable change in channel morphology and changes in distribution and density of vegetation varied with magnitude, duration, and frequency of large streamflow events, and increases in the magnitude and duration of low streamflows. Although more subtle, low stream- flows were an important component of day-to-day channel erosion. Substantial changes in channel morphology were most often associated with infrequent large or catastrophic streamflow events that erode streambed and banks, alter stream course, and deposit large amounts of sediment in the flood plain.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, M. L.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Lam, M. T.

We analyze dispersion measure (DM) variations of 37 millisecond pulsars in the nine-year North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) data release and constrain the sources of these variations. DM variations can result from a changing distance between Earth and the pulsar, inhomogeneities in the interstellar medium, and solar effects. Variations are significant for nearly all pulsars, with characteristic timescales comparable to or even shorter than the average spacing between observations. Five pulsars have periodic annual variations, 14 pulsars have monotonically increasing or decreasing trends, and 14 pulsars show both effects. Of the four pulsars with linear trends thatmore » have line-of-sight velocity measurements, three are consistent with a changing distance and require an overdensity of free electrons local to the pulsar. Several pulsars show correlations between DM excesses and lines of sight that pass close to the Sun. Mapping of the DM variations as a function of the pulsar trajectory can identify localized interstellar medium features and, in one case, an upper limit to the size of the dispersing region of 4 au. Four pulsars show roughly Kolmogorov structure functions (SFs), and another four show SFs less steep than Kolmogorov. One pulsar has too large an uncertainty to allow comparisons. We discuss explanations for apparent departures from a Kolmogorov-like spectrum, and we show that the presence of other trends and localized features or gradients in the interstellar medium is the most likely cause.« less

Elemental cycling response of an Adirondack subalpine spruce-fir forest to atmospheric and environmental change

Treesearch

Andrew J. Friedland; Eric K. Miller

1996-01-01

Patterns and trends in forest elemental cycling can become more apparent in the presence of atmospheric perturbations. High-elevation forests of the northeastern United States have received large amounts of atmospheric deposition of pollutants, which have altered natural elemental cycling and retention rates in a variety of ways. This study examined atmospheric...

The Effects of Behavioral Objectives on Learning: A Review of Empirical Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duchastel, Philippe C.; Merrill, Paul F.

In a review of over 25 empirical investigations of effects of communicating behavioral objectives to students, several trends were apparent. Advance knowledge of behavioral objectives led to improved posttest performance in five of ten studies and to improved retention in two of three instances. Only two of seven studies found an interaction…

Use of Local Area Networks in Schools. ERIC Digest.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reinhold, Fran

The current status and apparent trends of local area networks (LANs) in school districts are explored in this short report. Results of a 1987-88 Quality Education Data survey are cited, indicating that 64% of 173 of the largest school districts in the country were already networking and 36% intended to be networking by 1990. The advantages of…

On regreening and degradation in Sahelian watersheds.

PubMed

Kaptué, Armel T; Prihodko, Lara; Hanan, Niall P

2015-09-29

Over many decades our understanding of the impacts of intermittent drought in water-limited environments like the West African Sahel has been influenced by a narrative of overgrazing and human-induced desertification. The desertification narrative has persisted in both scientific and popular conception, such that recent regional-scale recovery ("regreening") and local success stories (community-led conservation efforts) in the Sahel, following the severe droughts of the 1970s-1980s, are sometimes ignored. Here we report a study of watershed-scale vegetation dynamics in 260 watersheds, sampled in four regions of Senegal, Mali, and Niger from 1983-2012, using satellite-derived vegetation indices as a proxy for net primary production. In response to earlier controversy, we first examine the shape of the rainfall-net primary production relationship and how it impacts conclusions regarding greening or degradation. We conclude that the choice of functional relationship has little quantitative impact on our ability to infer greening or degradation trends. We then present an approach to analyze changes in long-term (decade-scale) average rain-use efficiency (an indicator of slowly responding vegetation structural changes) relative to changes in interannual-scale rainfall sensitivity (an indicator of landscape ability to respond rapidly to rainfall variability) to infer trends in greening/degradation of the watersheds in our sample regions. The predominance of increasing rain-use efficiency in our data supports earlier reports of a "greening" trend across the Sahel. However, there are strong regional differences in the extent and direction of change, and in the apparent role of changing woody and herbaceous components in driving those temporal trends.

On regreening and degradation in Sahelian watersheds

PubMed Central

Kaptué, Armel T.; Prihodko, Lara; Hanan, Niall P.

2015-01-01

Over many decades our understanding of the impacts of intermittent drought in water-limited environments like the West African Sahel has been influenced by a narrative of overgrazing and human-induced desertification. The desertification narrative has persisted in both scientific and popular conception, such that recent regional-scale recovery (“regreening”) and local success stories (community-led conservation efforts) in the Sahel, following the severe droughts of the 1970s–1980s, are sometimes ignored. Here we report a study of watershed-scale vegetation dynamics in 260 watersheds, sampled in four regions of Senegal, Mali, and Niger from 1983–2012, using satellite-derived vegetation indices as a proxy for net primary production. In response to earlier controversy, we first examine the shape of the rainfall–net primary production relationship and how it impacts conclusions regarding greening or degradation. We conclude that the choice of functional relationship has little quantitative impact on our ability to infer greening or degradation trends. We then present an approach to analyze changes in long-term (decade-scale) average rain-use efficiency (an indicator of slowly responding vegetation structural changes) relative to changes in interannual-scale rainfall sensitivity (an indicator of landscape ability to respond rapidly to rainfall variability) to infer trends in greening/degradation of the watersheds in our sample regions. The predominance of increasing rain-use efficiency in our data supports earlier reports of a “greening” trend across the Sahel. However, there are strong regional differences in the extent and direction of change, and in the apparent role of changing woody and herbaceous components in driving those temporal trends. PMID:26371296

Temporal epidemiology of microfilaraemia among migrant workers entering Kuwait

PubMed Central

Akhtar, Saeed; Mohammad, Hameed GHH; Michael, Edwin

2008-01-01

Background There is paucity of published data on the microfilarial infection among migrants from endemic countries entering Kuwait. The primary objectives of this study were to use routine health surveillance data to i) to estimate the prevalence of microfilarial infection in migrant workers to Kuwait and ii) to determine the occurrence of any time trends in the proportions of microfilaria positives among these workers over the recent past. Methods Monthly aggregates of microfilaria thick slide test results obtained from routine health examinations of migrant workers conducted at the Ports and Border Health Division of Ministry of Health, Kuwait between January 1, 1992 and December 31, 2006, were available for trend analysis of these time series data. Results During the study period, the prevalence (per 100,000) of microfilaraemia positive migrant workers was 48 (1169/2449360). A third-order polynomial regression model of monthly proportions of microfilaraemic workers revealed a significant initial increase (βˆ1 = 2.976 (± 0.157); P < 0.001), followed by a significant declining trend (βˆ2 = -0.0358 (± 0.002); P < 0.001) and a slight but significant upward trend (βˆ3 = 0.0001 (± < 0.001); P < 0.001) towards the end of study period. Conclusion This study showed a recent steady but apparently asymptotic decline in the prevalence of microfilarial infection in migrant workers from filarial endemic countries to Kuwait. This may reflect either changes in the socio-economic backgrounds of recent migrants or the effects of recently initiated mass drug administration programs carried out in the endemic countries of origin. PMID:18710477

Change in the Beaufort Sea ecosystem: Diverging trends in body condition and/or production in five marine vertebrate species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harwood, L. A.; Smith, T. G.; George, J. C.; Sandstrom, S. J.; Walkusz, W.; Divoky, G. J.

2015-08-01

Studies of the body condition of five marine vertebrate predators in the Beaufort Sea, conducted independently during the past 2-4 decades, suggest each has been affected by biophysical changes in the marine ecosystem. We summarize a temporal trend of increasing body condition in two species (bowhead whale subadults, Arctic char), in both cases influenced by the extent and persistence of annual sea ice. Three other species (ringed seal, beluga, black guillemot chicks), consumers with a dietary preference for Arctic cod, experienced declines in condition, growth and/or production during the same time period. The proximate causes of these observed changes remain unknown, but may reflect an upward trend in secondary productivity, and a concurrent downward trend in the availability of forage fishes, such as the preferred Arctic cod. To further our understanding of these apparent ecosystem shifts, we urge the use of multiple marine vertebrate species in the design of biophysical sampling studies to identify causes of these changes. Continued long-term, standardized monitoring of vertebrate body condition should be paired with concurrent direct (stomach contents) or indirect (isotopes, fatty acids) monitoring of diet, detailed study of movements and seasonal ranges to establish and refine baselines, and identification of critical habitats of the marine vertebrates being monitored. This would be coordinated with biophysical and oceanographic sampling, at spatial and temporal scales, and geographic locations, that are relevant to the home range, critical habitats and prey of the vertebrate indicator species showing changes in condition and related parameters.

Changes in intense tropical cyclone activity for the western North Pacific during the last decades derived from a regional climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika; Feser, Frauke; Zhang, Wei; Mei, Wei

2017-11-01

An atmospheric regional climate model (CCLM) was employed to dynamically downscale atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR 1, ERA 40) over the western North Pacific and South East Asia. This approach is used for the first time to reconstruct a tropical cyclone climatology, which extends beyond the satellite era and serves as an alternative data set for inhomogeneous observation-derived records (Best Track Data sets). The simulated TC climatology skillfully reproduces observations of the recent decades (1978-2010), including spatial patterns, frequency, lifetime, trends, variability on interannual and decadal time scales and their association with the large-scale circulation patterns. These skills, facilitated here with the spectral nudging method, seem to be a prerequisite to understand the factors determining spatio-temporal variability of TC activity over the western North Pacific. Long-term trends (1948-2011 and 1959-2001) in both simulations show a strong increase of intense tropical cyclone activity. This contrasts with pronounced multidecadal variations found in observations. The discrepancy may partly originate from temporal inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalyses and Best Track Data, which affect both the model-based and observational-based trends. An adjustment, which removes the simulated upward trend, reduces the apparent discrepancy. Ultimately, our observational and modeling analysis suggests an important contribution of multi-decadal fluctuations in the TC activity during the last six decades. Nevertheless, due to the uncertainties associated with the inconsistencies and quality changes of those data sets, we call for special caution when reconstructing long-term TC statistics either from atmospheric reanalyses or Best Track Data.

Anthropogenic activities and coastal environmental quality: a regional quantitative analysis in southeast China with management implications.

PubMed

Chen, Kai; Liu, Yan; Huang, Dongren; Ke, Hongwei; Chen, Huorong; Zhang, Songbin; Yang, Shengyun; Cai, Minggang

2018-02-01

Regional analysis of environmental issues has always been a hot topic in the field of sustainable development. Because the different levels of economic growth, urbanization, resource endowments, etc. in different regions generate apparently different ecological responses, a better description and comparison across different regions will provide more valuable implications for ecological improvement and policymaking. In this study, seven typical bays in southeast China that are a rapid developing area were selected to quantitatively analyze the relationship between socioeconomic development and coastal environmental quality. Based on the water quality data from 2007 to 2015, the multivariate statistical method was applied to analyze the potential environmental risks and to classify the seven bays based on their environmental quality status. The possible variation trends of environmental indices were predicted based on the cross-regional panel data by Environmental Kuznets Curve. The results showed that there were significant regional differences among the seven bays, especially Quanzhou, Xiamen, and Luoyuan Bays, suffered from severer artificial disturbances than other bays, despite their different development patterns. Socioeconomic development level was significantly associated with some water quality indices (pH, DIN, PO 4 -P); the association was roughly positive: the areas with higher GDP per capita have some worse water quality indices. In addition, the decreasing trend of pH values and the increasing trend of nutrient concentration in the seven bays will continue in the foreseeable future. In consideration of the variation trends, the limiting nutrient strategy should be implemented to mitigate the deterioration of the coastal environments.

Assessing the impacts of climate change and nitrogen deposition on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) growth in Austria with BIOME-BGC.

PubMed

Eastaugh, Chris S; Pötzelsberger, Elisabeth; Hasenauer, Hubert

2011-03-01

The aim of this paper is to determine whether a detectable impact of climate change is apparent in Austrian forests. In regions of complex terrain such as most of Austria, climatic trends over the past 50 years show marked geographic variability. As climate is one of the key drivers of forest growth, a comparison of growth characteristics between regions with different trends in temperature and precipitation can give insights into the impact of climatic change on forests. This study uses data from several hundred climate recording stations, interpolated to measurement sites of the Austrian National Forest Inventory (NFI). Austria as a whole shows a warming trend over the past 50 years and little overall change in precipitation. The warming trends, however, vary considerably across certain regions and regional precipitation trends vary widely in both directions, which cancel out on the national scale These differences allow the delineation of 'climatic change zones' with internally consistent climatic trends that differ from other zones. This study applies the species-specific adaptation of the biogeochemical model BIOME-BGC to Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) across a range of Austrian climatic change zones, using input data from a number of national databases. The relative influence of extant climate change on forest growth is quantified, and compared with the far greater impact of non-climatic factors. At the national scale, climate change is found to have negligible effect on Norway spruce productivity, due in part to opposing effects at the regional level. The magnitudes of the modeled non-climatic influences on aboveground woody biomass increment increases are consistent with previously reported values of 20-40 kg of added stem carbon sequestration per kilogram of additional nitrogen deposition, while climate responses are of a magnitude difficult to detect in NFI data.

Trends in oral drug bioavailability following bariatric surgery: examining the variable extent of impact on exposure of different drug classes.

PubMed

Darwich, Adam S; Henderson, Kathryn; Burgin, Angela; Ward, Nicola; Whittam, Janet; Ammori, Basil J; Ashcroft, Darren M; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin

2012-11-01

Changes to oral drug bioavailability have been observed post bariatric surgery. However, the magnitude and the direction of changes have not been assessed systematically to provide insights into the parameters governing the observed trends. Understanding these can help with dose adjustments. Analysis of drug characteristics based on a biopharmaceutical classification system is not adequate to explain observed trends in altered oral drug bioavailability following bariatric surgery, although the findings suggest solubility to play an important role. To identify the most commonly prescribed drugs in a bariatric surgery population and to assess existing evidence regarding trends in oral drug bioavailability post bariatric surgery. A retrospective audit was undertaken to document commonly prescribed drugs amongst patients undergoing bariatric surgery in an NHS hospital in the UK and to assess practice for drug administration following bariatric surgery. The available literature was examined for trends relating to drug permeability and solubility with regards to the Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS) and main route of elimination. No significant difference in the 'post/pre surgery oral drug exposure ratio' (ppR) was apparent between BCS class I to IV drugs, with regards to dose number (Do) or main route of elimination. Drugs classified as 'solubility limited' displayed an overall reduction as compared with 'freely soluble' compounds, as well as an unaltered and increased ppR. Clinical studies establishing guidelines for commonly prescribed drugs, and the monitoring of drugs exhibiting a narrow therapeutic window or without a readily assessed clinical endpoint, are warranted. Using mechanistically based pharmacokinetic modelling for simulating the multivariate nature of changes in drug exposure may serve as a useful tool in the further understanding of postoperative trends in oral drug exposure and in developing practical clinical guidance. © 2012 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2012 The British Pharmacological Society.

Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Erickson, M. P.; Smith, M. R.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. In the Utah-Nevada area, linear structural trends recorded on ERTS-1 imagery conform in part to previously recognized structures. In addition, the ERTS-1 imagery reveals cryptic structures not previously identified and not readily apparent in other imagery. These structures are illustrated by prominent east-west trending structures which appear to be concentrated in pre-volcanic rocks. This suggests that the structures are older than many of those with other trends which are equally prominent in volcanic and non-volcanic terrain. Since the older east-west structures may have controlled early Tertiary emplacement of magma or the ascent of mineralizing fluids, their recognition is important in minerial exploration. Soil-gas sampling and analysis for mercury content is being continued over structures, and projected trends of buried structures which appear, from studies of ERTS-1 imagery, to be favorable to mineralization. Comparison of ERTS-1 and Skylab imagery indicated that ERTS-1 imagery records more previously unrecognized linear structures than the Skylab imagery. In differentiating and identifying different rock types, the Skylab imagery appears to be more effective.

Trend discrepancies among three best track data sets of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jin-Jie; Wang, Yuan; Wu, Liguang

2010-06-01

The hot debate over the influence of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific over the past several decades is partly due to the diversity of TC data sets used in recent publications. This study investigates differences of track, intensity, frequency, and the associated long-term trends for those TCs that were simultaneously recorded by the best track data sets of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo, and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI). Though the differences in TC tracks among these data sets are negligibly small, the JTWC data set tends to classify TCs of category 2-3 as category 4-5, leading to an upward trend in the annual frequency of category 4-5 TCs and the annual accumulated power dissipation index, as reported by Webster et al. (2005) and Emanuel (2005). This trend and potential destructiveness over the period 1977-2007 are found only with the JTWC data set, but downward trends are apparent in the RSMC and STI data sets. It is concluded that the different algorithms used in determining TC intensity may cause the trend discrepancies of TC activity in the western North Pacific.

Modeling and observations of dust aerosols during the North American Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano, A. F.; Raman, A.; Brost, J.; Sorooshian, A.

2016-12-01

Intense dust storms during North American Monsoon (NAM) pose a significant threat to local/regional air quality, economy, and public health. Convection-driven storms (or haboobs) in Arizona and in the southwest US have been given far less attention compared to those in Africa and Middle East. Blowing dusts from these haboobs typically lasts for 3-6 hours and accumulate more than 1000 µg m-3 of PM10 in the atmosphere. However, it is not clear whether haboobs are increasing in intensity and/or frequency in Arizona. Here, we address two science questions: 1) Do haboobs impact the observed trends in aerosol abundance in the NAM region?, 2) What are our current capabilities and limitations in understanding, monitoring, and assessing haboobs and their impacts? For 1), we calculated the trends of enhancements in aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Terra MODIS over dust hotspots in the NAM alley and and surrounding region (dust cluster). Both show similar decreasing trends before the monsoon. However, during the monsoon, a decreasing trend in AOD is more prominent in the dust cluster than in NAM alley. We attribute this to an apparent modulation of dust in the NAM alley by haboobs. Despite increase in rainfall during this period, we infer that the increase in dust sources in the NAM alley obscures the decreasing AOD trend. For 2), we conducted simulations simulations of these haboobs using WRF-Chem with GOCART AFWA scheme at convective resolving scales ( 1 km). Our case study for the 5 July 2011 haboob indicate that the downbursts occurred near Tucson and generated diverging high intensity winds, resulting to cold pools propagating towards Phoenix. We find that WRF-Chem captures the timing of the haboob but severely underestimates the magnitude of dust concentrations that reached as high as 2000 µg m-3 at USEPA Phoenix stations. The impact of the haboob was seen as far as 350 km northwest of Phoenix at an altitude of 2-4 km on 6 July. We find two major limitations in our simulations: 1) lack of dynamic high resolution land cover for prescribing dust sources, and 2) lack of observing system capability especially high temporal resolution, remotely-sensed measurements for monitoring and assessment. Future geostationary missions together with synergistic use of current and future expansion of in-situ measurements can improve these limitations.

The nature of the crust under Cayman Trough from gravity

USGS Publications Warehouse

ten Brink, Uri S.; Coleman, D.F.; Dillon, William P.

2002-01-01

Considerable crustal thickness variations are inferred along Cayman Trough, a slow-spreading ocean basin in the Caribbean Sea, from modeling of the gravity field. The crust to a distance of 50 km from the spreading center is only 2–3 km thick in agreement with dredge and dive results. Crustal thickness increases to ∼5.5 km at distances between 100 and 430 km west of the spreading center and to 3.5–6 km at distances between 60 and 370 km east of the spreading center. The increase in thickness is interpreted to represent serpentinization of the uppermost mantle lithosphere, rather than a true increase in the volume of accreted ocean crust. Serpentinized peridotite rocks have indeed been dredged from the base of escarpments of oceanic crust rocks in Cayman Trough. Laboratory-measured density and P-wave speed of peridotite with 40–50% serpentine are similar to the observed speed in published refraction results and to the inferred density from the model. Crustal thickness gradually increases to 7–8 km at the far ends of the trough partially in areas where sea floor magnetic anomalies were identified. Basement depth becomes gradually shallower starting 250 km west of the rise and 340 km east of the rise, in contrast to the predicted trend of increasing depth to basement from cooling models of the oceanic lithosphere. The gradual increase in apparent crustal thickness and the shallowing trend of basement depth are interpreted to indicate that the deep distal parts of Cayman Trough are underlain by highly attenuated crust, not by a continuously accreted oceanic crust.

International profiles of dental hygiene 1987 to 1998: a 19-nation comparative study.

PubMed

Johnson, P M

2001-08-01

Development of an international longitudinal database to examine patterns, trends and changes in dental hygiene. Three surveys of national dental hygienists' associations, mainly members of the International Federation of Dental Hygienists. Data were collected by mail in 1987, 1992 and 1998, using a 40-item questionnaire. Sample size increased over time; results presented are based on responses for 13, 15 and 19 countries respectively. Preliminary tabulations were circulated to respondents for validation. Overall, characteristics of the profession were remarkably similar; most noteworthy was the scope of dental hygiene clinical practice. Regarding historical development, education and professional organisation, the profession was more similar than dissimilar. Greater variation was evident in terms of numbers, distribution, workforce behaviour, predominant work setting and remuneration. While apparent change over the relatively short period 1987 to 1998 was viewed with caution, several observations were of particular interest: marked increases in the supply of dental hygienists, scope of practice and range of practice settings, accompanied by a decline in mandated level of work supervision. A slight but gradual increase in independent dental hygiene practice also was noted. By 1998 the profiles reflected the vast majority of the world's population of dental hygienists. While rate of change varied across the countries examined, the nature of the change tended to be consistent, resulting in a continuing homogeneity in the profession worldwide. Changes and emerging trends should continue to be monitored in terms of improved access to quality oral health services and technical efficiency in the provision of those services.

A spatio-temporal index for heat vulnerability assessment.

PubMed

Kershaw, Suzanne E; Millward, Andrew A

2012-12-01

The public health consequences of extreme heat events are felt most intensely in metropolitan areas where population density is high and the presence of the urban heat island phenomenon exacerbates the potential for prolonged exposure. This research develops an approach to map potential heat stress on humans by combining temperature and relative humidity into an index of apparent temperature. We use ordinary kriging to generate hourly prediction maps describing apparent temperature across the Greater Toronto Area, Canada. Meteorological data were obtained from 65 locations for 6 days in 2008 when extreme heat alerts were issued for the City of Toronto. Apparent temperature and exposure duration were integrated in a single metric, humidex degree hours (HDH), and mapped. The results show a significant difference in apparent temperature between built and natural locations from 3 PM to 7 AM; this discrepancy was greatest at 12 AM where built locations had a mean of 2.8 index values larger, t(71) = 5.379, p < 0.001. Spatial trends in exposure to heat stress (apparent temperature, ≥ 30°C) show the downtown core of the City of Toronto and much of Mississauga (west of Toronto) as likely to experience hazardous levels of prolonged heat and humidity (HDH ≥ 72) during a heat alert. We recommend that public health officials use apparent temperature and exposure duration to develop spatially explicit heat vulnerability assessment tools; HDH is one approach that unites these risk factors into a single metric.

Morcellation worsens survival outcomes in patients with undiagnosed uterine leiomyosarcomas: A retrospective MITO group study.

PubMed

Raspagliesi, Francesco; Maltese, Giuseppa; Bogani, Giorgio; Fucà, Giovanni; Lepori, Stefano; De Iaco, Pierandrea; Perrone, Myriam; Scambia, Giovanni; Cormio, Gennaro; Bogliolo, Stefano; Bergamini, Alice; Bifulco, Giuseppe; Casali, Paolo Giovanni; Lorusso, Domenica

2017-01-01

To investigate the impact of morcellation on survival outcomes of patients affected by undiagnosed uterine sarcoma. This is a retrospective study performed in 8 referral centers of MITO group. Data of women undergoing morcellation for apparent benign uterine myomas who were ultimately diagnosed with stage I uterine sarcoma on final pathology were compared with data of women who did not undergo morcellation. Uterine sarcoma included: leiomyosarcomas (LMS), smooth muscle tumors of uncertain malignant potential (STUMP), low-grade endometrial stromal sarcomas (LG-ESS) and undifferentiated uterine sarcomas (UUS). Two-year survival outcomes were evaluated using Kaplan-Meir and Cox models. Overall 125 patients were identified: 31(24.8%), 21(16.8%) and 73(58.4%) patients had power morcellation during laparoscopy, non power morcellation during open surgery and non morcellation during open procedures, respectively. Considering patients affected by LMS, morcellation did not correlated with disease-free survival. However, patients undergoing either morcellation or power morcellation experienced a 3-fold increase risk of death in comparison to patients who had not morcellation (p=0.02). A trend towards an increase of recurrence was observed for patients undergoing morcellation for STUMP (HR 7.7, p=0.09); while no differences in survival outcomes were observed for patients with LG-ESS and UUS. Our data suggest that morcellation increase the risk of death in patients affected by undiagnosed LMS. Further prospective studies are warranted in order to assess the risk to benefit ratio of power morcellator utilization in patients with apparent benign uterine myomas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Some observations on the role of planetary waves in determining the spring time ozone distribution in the Antarctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, S.; Mcpeters, R. D.

1986-01-01

Ozone measurements from 1970 to 1984 from the Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet and the Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet spectrometers show significant decrease in total ozone only after 1979. The downward trend is most apparent in October south of 70 deg S in the longitude zone 0 to 30 deg W where planetary wave activity is weak. Outside this longitude region, the trend in total ozone is much smaller due to strong interannual variability of wave activity. This paper gives a phenomenological description of ozone depletion in the Antarctic region based on vertical advection and transient planetary waves.

Ground-Water, Surface-Water, and Water-Chemistry Data, Black Mesa Area, Northeastern Arizona - 2006-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Truini, Margot; Macy, J.P.

2008-01-01

The N aquifer is the major source of water in the 5,400 square-mile Black Mesa area in northeastern Arizona. Availability of water is an important issue in northeastern Arizona because of continued water requirements for industrial and municipal use and the needs of a growing population. Precipitation in the Black Mesa area is typically about 6 to 14 inches per year. The water-monitoring program in the Black Mesa area began in 1971 and is designed to provide information about the long-term effects of ground-water withdrawals from the N aquifer for industrial and municipal uses. This report presents results of data collected for the monitoring program in the Black Mesa area from January 2006 to September 2007. The monitoring program includes measurements of (1) ground-water withdrawals, (2) ground-water levels, (3) spring discharge, (4) surface-water discharge, and (5) ground-water chemistry. Periodic testing of ground-water withdrawal meters is completed every 4 to 5 years. The Navajo Tribal Utility Authority (NTUA) yearly totals for the ground-water metered withdrawal data were unavailable in 2006 due to an up-grade within the NTUA computer network. Because NTUA data is often combined with Bureau of Indian Affairs data for the total withdrawals in a well system, withdrawals will not be published in this year's annual report. From 2006 to 2007, annually measured water levels in the Black Mesa area declined in 3 of 11 wells measured in the unconfined areas of the N aquifer, and the median change was 0.0 feet. Measurements indicated that water levels declined in 8 of 17 wells measured in the confined area of the aquifer. The median change for the confined area of the aquifer was 0.2 feet. From the prestress period (prior to 1965) to 2007, the median water-level change for 30 wells was -11.1 feet. Median water-level changes were 2.9 feet for 11 wells measured in the unconfined areas and -40.2 feet for 19 wells measured in the confined area. Spring flow was measured once in 2006 and once in 2007 at Moenkopi School Spring. Flow decreased by 18.9 percent at Moenkopi School Spring. During the period of record, flow fluctuated, and a decreasing trend was apparent. Continuous records of surface-water discharge in the Black Mesa area have been collected from streamflow gages at the following sites: Moenkopi Wash at Moenkopi (1976 to 2006), Dinnebito Wash near Sand Springs (1993 to 2006), Polacca Wash near Second Mesa (1994 to 2006), and Pasture Canyon Springs (August 2004 to December 2006). Median flows during November, December, January, and February of each water year were used as an index of the amount of ground-water discharge to the above named sites. For the period of record at each streamflow-gaging station, the median winter flows have generally remained even, showing neither a significant increase nor decrease in flows. There is not a long enough period of record for Pasture Canyon Spring for a trend to be apparent. In 2007, water samples were collected from 1 well and 1 spring in the Black Mesa area and were analyzed for selected chemical constituents. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate have varied at Peabody well 5 for the period of record, and there is an apparent increasing trend. Dissolved-solids, chloride, and sulfate concentrations increased at Moenkopi School Spring during the more than 12 years of record.

Sub-cellular force microscopy in single normal and cancer cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Babahosseini, H.; Carmichael, B.; Strobl, J.S.

2015-08-07

This work investigates the biomechanical properties of sub-cellular structures of breast cells using atomic force microscopy (AFM). The cells are modeled as a triple-layered structure where the Generalized Maxwell model is applied to experimental data from AFM stress-relaxation tests to extract the elastic modulus, the apparent viscosity, and the relaxation time of sub-cellular structures. The triple-layered modeling results allow for determination and comparison of the biomechanical properties of the three major sub-cellular structures between normal and cancerous cells: the up plasma membrane/actin cortex, the mid cytoplasm/nucleus, and the low nuclear/integrin sub-domains. The results reveal that the sub-domains become stiffer andmore » significantly more viscous with depth, regardless of cell type. In addition, there is a decreasing trend in the average elastic modulus and apparent viscosity of the all corresponding sub-cellular structures from normal to cancerous cells, which becomes most remarkable in the deeper sub-domain. The presented modeling in this work constitutes a unique AFM-based experimental framework to study the biomechanics of sub-cellular structures. - Highlights: • The cells are modeled as a triple-layered structure using Generalized Maxwell model. • The sub-domains include membrane/cortex, cytoplasm/nucleus, and nuclear/integrin. • Biomechanics of corresponding sub-domains are compared among normal and cancer cells. • Viscoelasticity of sub-domains show a decreasing trend from normal to cancer cells. • The decreasing trend becomes most significant in the deeper sub-domain.« less

Changes in ultrastructure and responses of antioxidant systems of algae (Dunaliella salina) during acclimation to enhanced ultraviolet-B radiation.

PubMed

Tian, Jiyuan; Yu, Juan

2009-12-02

Because of depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, levels of solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation (280-315 nm), which penetrates the water column to an ecologically-significant depth, are increasing. In order to assess changes in ultrastructure and responses of antioxidant systems of algae during acclimation to enhanced ultraviolet-B radiation, Dunaliella salina was treated with higher dose of UV-B radiation (13.2 kJm(-2) d(-1) dose) in this study. As compared to the control panel (8.8 kJm(-2) d(-1)), the treatment D. salina had many changes in ultrastructures: (1) thylakoids became swelled, and some of them penetrated into the pyrenoid; (2) lipid globules accumulated; (3) the amounts of starch grains increased; (4) cristae of mitochondria disintegrated; (5) inclusions in vacuoles reduced; and (6) cisternae of Golgi dictyosomes became loose and swollen. Enhanced UV-B irradiation also induced different responses of the antioxidant systems in D. salina: (1) contents of TBARS (thiobarbituric acid reacting substance) and H(2)O(2) increased significantly (p<0.05); (2) levels of MAAs (mycosporine-like amino acids) increased at the beginning and subsequently decreased, and finally they leveled off at lower values; (3) there were not apparent variations for carotenoid contents, and contents of chlorophyll a presented a trend of initial increase and ultimate decrease; (4) both ascorbate and glutathione contents increased significantly (p<0.05); and (5) for the enzyme activities, POD activities increased remarkably (p<0.05), and SOD activities declined apparently (p<0.05), and CAT activity in D. salina had slight variations (p>0.05). In addition, growth curve displayed that enhanced UV-B radiation prominently inhibited increase of cell concentration when compared with control panel (p<0.05). Our results indicated that enhanced UV-B radiation caused ultrastructural changes of D. salina and induced different responses of antioxidant systems in D. salina.

Nitrate vulnerability projections from Bayesian inference of multiple groundwater age tracers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alikhani, Jamal; Deinhart, Amanda L.; Visser, Ate

Nitrate is a major source of contamination of groundwater in the United States and around the world. We tested the applicability of multiple groundwater age tracers ( 3H, 3He, 4He, 14C, 13C, and 85Kr) in projecting future trends of nitrate concentration in 9 long-screened, public drinking water wells in Turlock, California, where nitrate concentrations are increasing toward the regulatory limit. Very low 85Kr concentrations and apparent 3H/ 3He ages point to a relatively old modern fraction (40–50 years), diluted with pre-modern groundwater, corroborated by the onset and slope of increasing nitrate concentrations. An inverse Gaussian–Dirac model was chosen to representmore » the age distribution of the sampled groundwater at each well. Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian inference, resulting in the posterior probability distribution – including the associated uncertainty – of the parameters and projected nitrate concentrations. Three scenarios were considered, including combined historic nitrate and age tracer data, the sole use of nitrate and the sole use of age tracer data. Each scenario was evaluated based on the ability of the model to reproduce the data and the level of reliability of the nitrate projections. The tracer-only scenario closely reproduced tracer concentrations, but not observed trends in the nitrate concentration. Both cases that included nitrate data resulted in good agreement with historical nitrate trends. Use of combined tracers and nitrate data resulted in a narrower range of projections of future nitrate levels. However, use of combined tracer and nitrate resulted in a larger discrepancy between modeled and measured tracers for some of the tracers. In conclusion, despite nitrate trend slopes between 0.56 and 1.73 mg/L/year in 7 of the 9 wells, the probability that concentrations will increase to levels above the MCL by 2040 are over 95% for only two of the wells, and below 15% in the other wells, due to a leveling off of reconstructed historical nitrate loadings to groundwater since about 1990.« less

Nitrate vulnerability projections from Bayesian inference of multiple groundwater age tracers

DOE PAGES

Alikhani, Jamal; Deinhart, Amanda L.; Visser, Ate; ...

2016-04-20

Nitrate is a major source of contamination of groundwater in the United States and around the world. We tested the applicability of multiple groundwater age tracers ( 3H, 3He, 4He, 14C, 13C, and 85Kr) in projecting future trends of nitrate concentration in 9 long-screened, public drinking water wells in Turlock, California, where nitrate concentrations are increasing toward the regulatory limit. Very low 85Kr concentrations and apparent 3H/ 3He ages point to a relatively old modern fraction (40–50 years), diluted with pre-modern groundwater, corroborated by the onset and slope of increasing nitrate concentrations. An inverse Gaussian–Dirac model was chosen to representmore » the age distribution of the sampled groundwater at each well. Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian inference, resulting in the posterior probability distribution – including the associated uncertainty – of the parameters and projected nitrate concentrations. Three scenarios were considered, including combined historic nitrate and age tracer data, the sole use of nitrate and the sole use of age tracer data. Each scenario was evaluated based on the ability of the model to reproduce the data and the level of reliability of the nitrate projections. The tracer-only scenario closely reproduced tracer concentrations, but not observed trends in the nitrate concentration. Both cases that included nitrate data resulted in good agreement with historical nitrate trends. Use of combined tracers and nitrate data resulted in a narrower range of projections of future nitrate levels. However, use of combined tracer and nitrate resulted in a larger discrepancy between modeled and measured tracers for some of the tracers. In conclusion, despite nitrate trend slopes between 0.56 and 1.73 mg/L/year in 7 of the 9 wells, the probability that concentrations will increase to levels above the MCL by 2040 are over 95% for only two of the wells, and below 15% in the other wells, due to a leveling off of reconstructed historical nitrate loadings to groundwater since about 1990.« less

Lung cancer risk and occupational exposure to meat and live animals.

PubMed

Durusoy, Raika; Boffetta, Paolo; Mannetje, Andrea 't; Zaridze, David; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Rudnai, Peter; Lissowska, Jolanta; Fabiánová, Eleonóra; Cassidy, Adrian; Mates, Dana; Bencko, Vladimir; Salajka, Frantisek; Janout, Vladimir; Fevotte, Joelle; Fletcher, Tony; Brennan, Paul

2006-05-15

An increased risk of lung cancer has been reported for butchers and meat workers in several cohort studies, although confounding from tobacco smoking could not be ruled out in any of these studies. These exposures, as well as a potential risk associated with contact with live animals, are addressed here in a large case-control study with full adjustment for smoking. More than 5,900 subjects were included in a case-control study conducted in 7 European countries. For each job they employed local experts who assessed the exposure to a number of occupational agents, including (i) meat aerosols and (ii) live animals, on the basis of detailed occupational questionnaires. Information on tobacco consumption and other risk factors was also collected. A small increased risk of lung cancer was observed with exposure to meat aerosols, after adjusting for smoking, (odds ratio (OR)=1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92, 1.75), which was most apparent for the upper tertile of cumulative exposure (OR=1.73, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.92). A similar overall effect was observed for exposure to live animals, with an increased risk observed for a high frequency of exposure, (OR=1.69, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.36) and a high intensity of exposure, (OR=1.85, 95% CI: 1.16, 2.94), with significant trends for increasing frequency (p=0.012), intensity (p=0.015) and cumulative exposure (p=0.024). In conclusion, this study provides evidence for an association between exposure to meat aerosols and lung cancer apparent in the highest tertile of exposure. The authors identified a more consistent association with exposure to live animals. Copyright (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Apparent Trend of the Iron Abundance in NGC 3201: The Same Outcome with Different Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, Valery V.

2017-08-01

We further study the unusual trend we found at statistically significant levels in some globular clusters, including NGC 3201: a decreasing iron abundance in red giants toward the cluster centers. We first show that recently published new estimates of iron abundance in the cluster reproduce this trend, in spite of the authors’ statement about no metallicity spread due to a low scatter achieved in the [Fe II/H] ratio. The mean of [Fe II/H] within R˜ 2\\prime from the cluster center is lower, by Δ[Fe II/H] = 0.05 ± 0.02 dex, than in the outer region, in agreement with our original estimate for a much larger sample size within R≈ 9\\prime . We found that an older data set traces the trend to a much larger radial distance, comparable with the cluster tidal radius, at Δ[Fe/H] ˜ 0.2 dex, due to higher metallicity of distant stars. We conclude the trend is reproduced by independent data sets and find that it is accompanied by both a notable same-sign trend of oxygen abundance that can vary by up to Δ[O/Fe] ˜ 0.3 dex within R≈ 9\\prime and an opposite-sign trend of sodium abundance.

Dietary inequalities: what is the evidence for the effect of the neighbourhood food environment?

PubMed

Black, Christina; Moon, Graham; Baird, Janis

2014-05-01

This review summarises the evidence for inequalities in community and consumer nutrition environments from ten previous review articles, and also assesses the evidence for the effect of the community and consumer nutrition environments on dietary intake. There is evidence for inequalities in food access in the US but trends are less apparent in other developed countries. There is a trend for greater access and availability to healthy and less healthy foods relating to better and poorer dietary outcomes respectively. Trends for price show that higher prices of healthy foods are associated with better dietary outcomes. More nuanced measures of the food environment, including multidimensional and individualised approaches, would enhance the state of the evidence and help inform future interventions. © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Treatment history and antimicrobial susceptibility results for Mannheimia haemolytica, Pasteurella multocida, and Histophilus somni isolates from bovine respiratory disease cases submitted to the Iowa State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory from 2013 to 2015.

PubMed

Magstadt, Drew R; Schuler, Adlai M; Coetzee, Johann F; Krull, Adam C; O'Connor, Annette M; Cooper, Vickie L; Engelken, Terry J

2018-01-01

Bovine respiratory disease is the most costly disease facing the cattle industry. Increasing resistance to antimicrobial treatment has been presented as a significant contributing factor, often through summarized susceptibility testing data. We assessed the relationship between previous antimicrobial treatment and antimicrobial susceptibility results from isolates of Mannheimia haemolytica, Pasteurella multocida, and Histophilus somni cultured from bovine respiratory cases submitted to the Iowa State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory from 2013 to 2015. Antimicrobial susceptibility data from 1,251 bacterial isolates were included for analysis. More bacterial isolates from cattle that received antimicrobial treatment showed resistance compared to isolates from untreated cattle, and the percentage of resistant isolates increased as the number of antimicrobial treatments increased. Resistance to enrofloxacin, spectinomycin, tilmicosin, and tulathromycin was present in >75% of M. haemolytica isolates from cattle that had received 3 or more antimicrobial treatments; resistance to each of those 4 antimicrobials was present in ≤10% of M. haemolytica isolates from untreated cattle. Similar but less dramatic trends were apparent for isolates of P. multocida and H. somni. The percentage of multi-drug resistant bacterial isolates also increased with the number of treatments. Results of our study suggest that previous antimicrobial treatment may have a profound effect on antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Summarized susceptibility results from diagnostic laboratories should not be used to make generalized statements regarding trends in antimicrobial resistance without providing context regarding antimicrobial treatment history.

Predictors of Final Specialty Choice by Internal Medicine Residents

PubMed Central

Diehl, Andrew K; Kumar, Vineeta; Gateley, Ann; Appleby, Jane L; O'Keefe, Mary E

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND Sociodemographic factors and personality attributes predict career decisions in medical students. Determinants of internal medicine residents' specialty choices have received little attention. OBJECTIVE To identify factors that predict the clinical practice of residents following their training. DESIGN Prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS Two hundred and four categorical residents from 2 university-based residency programs. MEASUREMENTS Sociodemographic and personality inventories performed during residency, and actual careers 4 to 9 years later. RESULTS International medical school graduates (IMGs) were less likely to practice general medicine than U.S. graduates (33.3% vs 70.6%, P<.001). Residents with higher loan indebtedness more often became generalists (P = .001). A corresponding trend favoring general internal medicine was observed among those who perceived General Internists to have lower potential incomes (69.0% vs 53.3%, P = .08). There was a trend for generalists to have lower scores on scales measuring authoritarianism, negative orientation to psychological problems, and Machiavellianism (0.05

Incidence of multiple myeloma in Olmsted County, Minnesota: Trend over 6 decades.

PubMed

Kyle, Robert A; Therneau, Terry M; Rajkumar, S Vincent; Larson, Dirk R; Plevak, Matthew F; Melton, L Joseph

2004-12-01

Previous studies have indicated that the incidence and mortality rates for multiple myeloma have increased in the United States. The authors reported on the incidence of multiple myeloma in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1991 and 2001 and on trends in multiple myeloma incidence over the last 56 years. Using the files of the Mayo Clinic and the Olmsted Medical Center (Rochester, MN), the authors identified all residents of Olmsted County who had multiple myeloma, suspected myeloma, or a related disorder. Reports of all laboratory determinations, in addition to autopsy findings and death certificates, were obtained. The criteria for the diagnosis of multiple myeloma have not changed during the last 6 decades. All but 1 of the 47 residents with multiple myeloma first diagnosed between 1991 and 2001 were recognized antemortem. Fifty-five percent had a previous monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, smoldering multiple myeloma, or solitary plasmacytoma before multiple myeloma was diagnosed. From 1991 to 2001, the overall annual incidence rate, age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. population, was 4.3 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval, 3.0-5.5 per 100,000). Poisson regression analysis showed no statistically significant trend in Olmsted County incidence rates over 56 years. In similar fashion, the authors adjusted multiple myeloma incidence rates from nine other studies worldwide for which adequate data were available and documented similar findings in each case, except for one study that included patients with smoldering multiple myeloma. The overall incidence of multiple myeloma in Olmsted County, Minnesota, has not changed in almost 6 decades. The apparent increase in incidence elsewhere is unexplained but probably is attributable to improvements in diagnostic techniques, particularly in older patients. (c) 2004 American Cancer Society

Trace metals in suspended particles, sediments and Asiatic clams (Corbicula fluminea) of the Río de la Plata Estuary, Argentina.

PubMed

Bilos, C; Colombo, J C; Presa, M J

1998-01-01

Suspended particulate matter (SPM), sandy sediments and Asiatic clams were collected at seven sites along 150 km of the Río de la Plata coast to assess the magnitude of trace metal pollution in the area. Metal concentrations in SPM (Cu: 7.4-109; Cr: 75-408; Mn: 525-1341 microg(-1)), sediments (Cr: 16-27; Zn: 26-99; Mn: 221-489 microg(-1)) and bivalves (Cd: 0.5-1.9; Ni: 1.3-6.4; Cr: 1.3-11; Mn: 15-81; Cu: 28-89; Zn: 118-316 microg g(-1)) are comparable to those reported for other moderately polluted world rivers. Cu levels in Asiatic clams are among the highest, similar to those reported for heavily polluted sites. SPM Cu and Cr concentrations displayed a clear geographical trend with values increasing with proximity to major urban centers. Sediments showed a less clear pattern possibly due to their coarse nature (>98% sand) and higher proportion of mineral-associated residual metals. The clams showed a complex pattern due to the variability introduced by size-related factors and the natural dynamics of SPM in the estuary. Cr and Mn showed an apparent reverse industrial trend with higher concentrations in clams collected at distant stations near the turbidity maximum zone, possibly reflecting enhanced particle retention. Cu, Cd and Ni showed no clear geographical pattern, whereas Zn increased in the clams collected in the most industrialized area. A significant relationship with clam size was observed for Cu (positive) and Zn (negative) suggesting different physiological requirements for both metals with age. A principal component analysis confirmed these geographical and size-related trends.

A Global Perspective on Trends in Nature-Based Tourism

PubMed Central

Balmford, Andrew; Beresford, James; Green, Jonathan; Naidoo, Robin; Walpole, Matt; Manica, Andrea

2009-01-01

Reports of rapid growth in nature-based tourism and recreation add significant weight to the economic case for biodiversity conservation but seem to contradict widely voiced concerns that people are becoming increasingly isolated from nature. This apparent paradox has been highlighted by a recent study showing that on a per capita basis, visits to natural areas in the United States and Japan have declined over the last two decades. These results have been cited as evidence of “a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation”—but how widespread is this phenomenon? We address this question by looking at temporal trends in visitor numbers at 280 protected areas (PAs) from 20 countries. This more geographically representative dataset shows that while PA visitation (whether measured as total or per capita visit numbers) is indeed declining in the United States and Japan, it is generally increasing elsewhere. Total visit numbers are growing in 15 of the 20 countries for which we could get data, with the median national rate of change unrelated to the national rate of population growth but negatively associated with wealth. Reasons for this reversal of growth in the richest countries are difficult to pin down with existing data, but the pattern is mirrored by trends in international tourist arrivals as a whole and so may not necessarily be caused by disaffection with nature. Irrespective of the explanation, it is clear that despite important downturns in some countries, nature-related tourism is far from declining everywhere, and may still have considerable potential both to generate funds for conservation and to shape people's attitudes to the environment. PMID:19564896

What Do We Actually Know about the Four-Day School Week?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heyward, Georgia

2018-01-01

The Center on Reinventing Public Education (CRPE) has been studying the four-day school week since 2015. Since then, the phenomenon of the four-day school week has spread into non-rural areas and interest appears to be growing. Given these apparent changes, the author wanted to know more about recent trends in the initiative. As districts continue…

Effects of Whole-Body Motion Simulation on Flight Skill Development.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-10-01

computation requirements, compared to the implementation allowing for a deviate internal model, provided further motivation for assuming a correct...We are left with two more likely explanations for the apparent trends: (1) subjects were motivated differently by the different task configurations...because of modeling constraints. The notion of task-related motivational differences are explored in Appendix E. Sensitivity analysis performed with

The Natural Emergence of Reasoning about the Afterlife as a Developmental Regularity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bering, Jesse M.; Bjorklund, David F.

2004-01-01

Participants were interviewed about the biological and psychological functioning of a dead agent. In Experiment 1, even 4- to 6-year-olds stated that biological processes ceased at death, although this trend was more apparent among 6- to 8-year-olds. In Experiment 2, 4- to 12-year-olds were asked about psychological functioning. The youngest…

EO-1 Hyperion reflectance time series at calibration and validation sites: stability and sensitivity to seasonal dynamics

Treesearch

Petya K. Entcheva Campbell; Elizabeth M. Middleton; Kurt J. Thome; Raymond F. Kokaly; Karl Fred Huemmrich; David Lagomasino; Kimberly A. Novick; Nathaniel A. Brunsell

2013-01-01

This study evaluated Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) Hyperion reflectance time series at established calibration sites to assess the instrument stability and suitability for monitoring vegetation functional parameters. Our analysis using three pseudo-invariant calibration sites in North America indicated that the reflectance time series are devoid of apparent spectral trends...

Simulations on the Influence of Myelin Water in Diffusion-Weighted Imaging

PubMed Central

Harkins, Kevin D.; Does, Mark D.

2016-01-01

While myelinated axons present an important barrier to water diffusion, many models used to interpret DWI signal neglect other potential influences of myelin. In this work, Monte Carlo simulations were used to test the sensitivity of DWI results to the diffusive properties of water within myelin. Within these simulations, the apparent diffusion coefficient (Dapp) varied slowly over several orders of magnitude of the coefficient of myelin water diffusion (Dm), but exhibited important differences compared to Dapp values simulated that neglect Dm (=0). Compared to Dapp, the apparent diffusion kurtosis (Kapp) was generally more sensitive to Dm. Simulations also tested the sensitivity of Dapp and Kapp to the amount of myelin present. Unique variations in Dapp and Kapp caused by differences in the myelin volume fraction were diminished when myelin water diffusion was included. Also, expected trends in Dapp and Kapp with experimental echo time were reduced or inverted when accounting for myelin water diffusion, and these reduced/inverted trends were seen experimentally in ex vivo rat brain DWI experiments. In general, myelin water has the potential to subtly influence DWI results and bias models of DWI that neglect these components of white matter. PMID:27271991

Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs.

PubMed

Maureaud, Aurore; Gascuel, Didier; Colléter, Mathieu; Palomares, Maria L D; Du Pontavice, Hubert; Pauly, Daniel; Cheung, William W L

2017-01-01

The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950-2010 time-periods. Global trends were identified and cluster analyses were used to characterize the variability of trends between ecosystems. Results showed that the most common pattern over the study period is a global decrease in TCI, while the ECI indicator tends to increase. Thus, changes in species assemblages would induce faster and apparently more efficient biomass transfers in marine food webs. Results also suggested that the main driver of change over that period had been the large increase in fishing pressure. The largest changes occurred in ecosystems where 'fishing down the marine food web' are most intensive.

Implementation of a Time Series Analysis for the Assessment of the Role of Climate Variability in a Post-Disturbance Savanna System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbes, C.; Southworth, J.; Waylen, P. R.

2013-05-01

How do climate variability and climate change influence vegetation cover and vegetation change in savannas? A landscape scale investigation of the effect of changes in precipitation on vegetation is undertaken through the employment of a time series analysis. The multi-national study region is located within the Kavango-Zambezi region, and is delineated by the Okavango, Kwando, and Zambezi watersheds. A mean-variance time-series analysis quantifies vegetation dynamics and characterizes vegetation response to climate. The spatially explicit approach used to quantify the persistence of vegetation productivity permits the extraction of information regarding long term climate-landscape dynamics. Results show a pattern of reduced mean annual precipitation and increased precipitation variability across key social and ecological areas within the study region. Despite decreased mean annual precipitation since the mid to late 1970's vegetation trends predominantly indicate increasing biomass. The limited areas which have diminished vegetative cover relate to specific vegetation types, and are associated with declines in precipitation variability. Results indicate that in addition to short term changes in vegetation cover, long term trends in productive biomass are apparent, relate to spatial differences in precipitation variability, and potentially represent shifts vegetation composition. This work highlights the importance of time-series analyses for examining climate-vegetation linkages in a spatially explicit manner within a highly vulnerable region of the world.

Estimations of the Global Distribution and Time Series of UV Noontime Irradiance (305, 310, 324, 380 nm, and Erythemal) from TOMS and SeaWiFS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, J.

2004-01-01

The amount of UV irradiance reaching the Earth's surface is estimated from the measured cloud reflectivity, ozone, aerosol amounts, and surface reflectivity time series from 1980 to 1992 and 1997 to 2000 to estimate changes that have occurred over a 21-year period. Recent analysis of the TOMS data shows that there has been an apparent increase in reflectivity (decrease in W) in the Southern Hemisphere that is related to a calibration error in EP-TOMS. Data from the well-calibrated SeaWiFS satellite instrument have been used to correct the EP-TOMS reflectivity and UV time series. After correction, some of the local trend features seen in the N7 time series (1980 to 1992) have been continued in the combined time series, but the overall zonal average and global trends have changed. In addition to correcting the EP-TOMS radiance calibration, the use of SeaWiFS cloud data permits estimation of UV irradiance at higher spatial resolution (1 to 4 km) than is available from TOMS (100 km) under the assumption that ozone is slowly varying over a scale of 100 km. The key results include a continuing decrease in cloud cover over Europe and North America with a corresponding increase in UV and a decrease in UV irradiance near Antarctica.

Toward the effective surveillance of hypospadias.

PubMed

Dolk, Helen; Vrijheid, Martine; Scott, John E S; Addor, Marie-Claude; Botting, Bev; de Vigan, Catherine; de Walle, Hermien; Garne, Ester; Loane, Maria; Pierini, Anna; Garcia-Minaur, Sixto; Physick, Nigel; Tenconi, Romano; Wiesel, Awi; Calzolari, Elisa; Stone, David

2004-03-01

Concern about apparent increases in the prevalence of hypospadias--a congenital male reproductive-tract abnormality--in the 1960s to 1980s and the possible connection to increasing exposures to endocrine-disrupting chemicals have underlined the importance of effective surveillance of hypospadias prevalence in the population. We report here the prevalence of hypospadias from 1980 to 1999 in 20 regions of Europe with EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) population-based congenital anomaly registers, 14 of which implemented a guideline to exclude glanular hypospadias. We also report data from the England and Wales National Congenital Anomaly System (NCAS). Our results do not suggest a continuation of rising trends of hypospadias prevalence in Europe. However, a survey of the registers and a special validation study conducted for the years 1994-1996 in nine EUROCAT registers as well as NCAS identified a clear need for a change in the guidelines for registration of hypospadias. We recommend that all hypospadias be included in surveillance, but that information from surgeons be obtained to verify location of the meatus, and whether surgery was performed, in order to interpret trends. Investing resources in repeated special surveys may be more cost-effective than continuous population surveillance. We conclude that it is doubtful whether we have had the systems in place worldwide for the effective surveillance of hypospadias in relation to exposure to potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals.

Apparent Sea Level Rise due to Loading of the Atlantic City Pier by Spectators Viewing (1929-1978) Diving Horses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvin, C.

2012-12-01

Cyril Galvin, Coastal Engineer Springfield, Virginia 22150 USA Since 1911, the Steel Pier at Atlantic City, New Jersey, has been the site of the Atlantic City tide gauge, except for two intervals: 1911-1921 when the gauge was at the Million Dollar Pier in Atlantic City, and 1985-1991 when the gauge was at the Ventnor Fishing Pier (see Table 2, Zervos, 2009). By design, the Steel Pier was an amusement pier, and its most famous amusement was the Diving Horses: they dove bareback with a woman rider from a platform about 40 feet above sea level. They did that between 1929 and 1978, except for seven years - a post-war period, 1945 to 1953, when diving was suspended. The popularity of the diving horses is recorded on photos of crowds which occupied the bleachers at the seaward end of the pier to view the diving horses. By my count, the crowd pictured in the end papers of the book by Steve Liebowitz (2009) was about 4000 people. Typically, there were multiple shows daily. The weight of the crowd, estimated from the count of the crowd, was about 150 tons. This weight was loaded down on the piles by the crowd of spectators, and unloaded between shows of the diving horses. Most of the piles supporting the pier deck were imbedded in sand newly deposited since 1850. Using Atlantic City sea levels from the PSMSL data base and historical facts from Liebowitz (2009), and beginning with a 1912 start of the tide gauge, the apparent sea level rose at a rate of 3.1mm/yr until 1929 when the horses began diving. With the 1929 start of diving, the apparent sea level rise tripled, averaging 9.4 mm/yr until the act was suspended in 1945. In the 1945-1953 interval, when the horses did not dive (no crowds on the pier), apparent sea level fell (sea level FELL) at a rate of -1.6 mm/yr. The horses resumed diving in 1953, when the apparent sea level resumed at a rate of 4.0mm/yr. This 4.0 mm/yr is identical to the longtime sea level trend (1911-2006) from Zervos (2009) of 3.99mm/yr The history of apparent sea level rise at Steel Pier is consistent with increases caused by loading the pier deck with crowds, and the absence of apparent sea level rise when the pier deck was not loaded by spectators. CG/08Aug 2012

Trends of selected cattle diseases in eastern Zambia between 1988 and 2008.

PubMed

Mubamba, Chrisborn; Sitali, Joseph; Gummow, Bruce

2011-09-01

Livestock diseases have long been a challenge to livestock production and public health in sub-Saharan Africa and Zambia in particular. The Eastern Province of Zambia is one area in Zambia that is not spared by this challenge. Among various livestock diseases affecting cattle in this region, the most prominent are East Coast Fever (ECF) and African Animal Trypanasomiasis (AAT). Since little has been published on the epidemiological trends of these diseases in eastern Zambia, a retrospective epidemiological study was carried out using reports that were submitted to the provincial veterinary office over the past 20 years. This paper assists in evaluating the impact of some of these aid programmes. Data was analysed using Excel(©), SPSS(®), Epi Info(©), and Epi Map(©) software. Apparent prevalence of AAT in cattle had decreased in the study period from estimates as high as 50% in Katete and Petauke district in 1990 and 1992 respectively to just below 3% (Petauke and Katete) in 2008, thereby, reducing the provincial apparent prevalence from 20% in 1992 to just below 3% in 2008. AAT apparent prevalence dropped from estimates as high as 17% in Chadiza district and 6% in Chipata district in 1990 to just below 1% in 2008 thereby reducing the provincial mean prevalence of East Coast Fever from 6% (1990) to 1% (2008). The inclusion of donor assistance in disease control programmes for both AAT and ECF appeared to have a significant impact on the prevalence of both diseases. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of Bingham statistics to a paleopole data set: Towards a better definition of APWP trends?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cederquist, D. P.; Mac Niocaill, C.; Van der Voo, R.

1997-01-01

Bingham statistical analyses were applied to paleomagnetic data from 50 published studies from North America, of Carboniferous through Early Jurassic age, in an attempt to test whether the azimuths of the long axes of the Bingham ellipses lie tangent to the apparent polar wander path. The underlying assumption is that paleomagnetic directions will form a Fisherian (circular) distribution if no apparent polar wander has taken place during magnetization acquisition. However, the distribution should appear elongated (elliptical) if magnetization acquisition occurred over a significant amount of time involving apparent polar wander. The long axes in direction space yield corresponding azimuths in paleopole space, which can be compared to the North American APWP. We find that, generally, these azimuths are indeed sub-parallel to the APWP, validating the methods and the hypothesis. Plotting a pole as an azimuthal cord, representing the long axis of the ellipse, will provide additional robustness or definition to an APWP based upon temporally sparse paleomagnetic studies.

Modelling the effects of penetrance and family size on rates of sporadic and familial disease.

PubMed

Al-Chalabi, Ammar; Lewis, Cathryn M

2011-01-01

Many complex diseases show a diversity of inheritance patterns ranging from familial disease, manifesting with autosomal dominant inheritance, through to simplex families in which only one person is affected, manifesting as apparently sporadic disease. The role of ascertainment bias in generating apparent patterns of inheritance is often overlooked. We therefore explored the role of two key parameters that influence ascertainment, penetrance and family size, in rates of observed familiality. We develop a mathematical model of familiality of disease, with parameters for penetrance, mutation frequency and family size, and test this in a complex disease: amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Monogenic, high-penetrance variants can explain patterns of inheritance in complex diseases and account for a large proportion of those with no apparent family history. With current demographic trends, rates of familiality will drop further. For example, a variant with penetrance 0.5 will cause apparently sporadic disease in 12% of families of size 10, but 80% of families of size 1. A variant with penetrance 0.9 has only an 11% chance of appearing sporadic in families of a size similar to those of Ireland in the past, compared with 57% in one-child families like many in China. These findings have implications for genetic counselling, disease classification and the design of gene-hunting studies. The distinction between familial and apparently sporadic disease should be considered artificial. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Changes in carbon uptake and release cause by insect outbreaks in the Colorado Rocky Mountains from 2000 through 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, D. J.; Wilkes, P.; Quaife, T. L.; Trahan, N. A.; Monson, R. K.; Stephens, B. B.

2010-12-01

A large scale insect outbreak has progressively infected North American Forests in the Rocky Mountains over the last 8 years causing the death of millions of trees. Loss of mature trees on this scale is likely to compromise the ability of these ecosystems to sequester carbon. While a reduction of live leaf area likely leads to reduced carbon uptake gross primary productivity (GPP) the impact of the outbreak on ecosystem respiration (RE) is not clear. We investigated the response of both GPP (2000 through 2010) and RE (2005-2010) to insect out break by contrasting two locations in the Rocky Mountains, the Fraser Experiment Forest (FEF; 39.91 N, 105.88 W) which has been heavily impacted by insects and Niwot Ridge (NWR; 40.05 N, 105.58 W) where the outbreak has not yet occurred. We used a modified estimate of GPP based on enhanced vegetation index (EVI) calibrated using eddy covariance measured at NWR to examine the impact of the beetle outbreak across the region. We found that while GPP decreased significantly at Fraser after the insect outbreak did not show a time dependent decline at NWR. Since 2005 near continuous atmospheric CO2 has been measured at the bottom of FEF. We used the diurnal variation in the CO2 concentration measured at the bottom of Fraser Valley as a proximate measurement of RE. We found that from 2005 through 2009 there was a decline in apparent RE while in 2010 apparent RE increased relative to 2009. Direct measurements of soil CO2 efflux appear to bear out this trend. Barring a large shift in temperature it is possible that the increase in apparent RE in 2010 may be the result of mobilization of N or potentially recovery of GPP from regenerating vegetation. The relative changes in GPP and RE are investigated from 2005 through 2010.

Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

2007-12-01

Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

Increasing subtropical North Pacific Ocean nitrogen fixation since the Little Ice Age.

PubMed

Sherwood, Owen A; Guilderson, Thomas P; Batista, Fabian C; Schiff, John T; McCarthy, Matthew D

2014-01-02

The North Pacific subtropical gyre (NPSG) plays a major part in the export of carbon and other nutrients to the deep ocean. Primary production in the NPSG has increased in recent decades despite a reduction in nutrient supply to surface waters. It is thought that this apparent paradox can be explained by a shift in plankton community structure from mostly eukaryotes to mostly nitrogen-fixing prokaryotes. It remains uncertain, however, whether the plankton community domain shift can be linked to cyclical climate variability or a long-term global warming trend. Here we analyse records of bulk and amino-acid-specific (15)N/(14)N isotopic ratios (δ(15)N) preserved in the skeletons of long-lived deep-sea proteinaceous corals collected from the Hawaiian archipelago; these isotopic records serve as a proxy for the source of nitrogen-supported export production through time. We find that the recent increase in nitrogen fixation is the continuation of a much larger, centennial-scale trend. After a millennium of relatively minor fluctuation, δ(15)N decreases between 1850 and the present. The total shift in δ(15)N of -2 per mil over this period is comparable to the total change in global mean sedimentary δ(15)N across the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, but it is happening an order of magnitude faster. We use a steady-state model and find that the isotopic mass balance between nitrate and nitrogen fixation implies a 17 to 27 per cent increase in nitrogen fixation over this time period. A comparison with independent records suggests that the increase in nitrogen fixation might be linked to Northern Hemisphere climate change since the end of the Little Ice Age.

Effect of perioperative inefficiency on neurosurgical theatre efficacy: A 15-year analysis.

PubMed

Kamat, Ameya S; Parker, Andrew

2015-01-01

Effective utilisation of operating theatre time is an important issue in neurosurgery. There is a commonly held belief amongst surgeons that throughput of theatre is decreasing secondary to worsening perioperative delays. The aim of this paper is to explore some of the factors that lead to delays in the perioperative period by determining whether there has been a trend in the increasing length of case time over a fifteen-year period. Case notes of all elective patients who consented for surgery between January 1998 and the end of 2012 were reviewed. Only patients who underwent elective surgery were included. Variables recorded included transit time from the ward to theatre, anaesthetic time, surgical time and time spent in recovery. These were compared over the 15-year period to look for apparent trends. The total number of patients who consented for elective surgery at our institution between January 1998 and December 2012 was 6760. The mean anaesthetic time considering all operations performed was 43 mins each over the 15-year period. Anaesthetic time was deemed to be trending upwards from 1998 where the mean time was 27 -60 mins in December 2012, thus reflecting an increase of 33 mins. The mean surgical times over the 15-year period were 131 mins. However in 1998, mean surgical time was 127 mins compared with 133 mins in 2012. For the operations analysed, anaesthetic time seems to be increasing and has effectively doubled over a 15-year period. Surgical time and non-clinical time are shown to be virtually constant. This delays the overall theatre list and increases the cancellation rate. For compensating this, changes need to be made when allocating resources to both elective and emergency theatres. Staff recruitment needs to be assessed and internal audits need to be conducted within institutions to analyse ways to optimise the throughput of an operation theatre. If these principles are not adhered to, it will have a negative impact as our populations, and hence our case loads increase to instrumental levels. This will in turn have a negative impact on health workers and patients alike.

Are Global Economic Losses from Natural Hazards Increasing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMullan, Caroline; Simic, Milan; Tosco, Antonello; Latchman, Shane

2016-04-01

Global society has long been influenced by natural hazards, but it has been widely noted that the economic cost of natural hazards has been rising rapidly over recent decades. This upward trend highlights the increasing exposure of the global economy to natural hazards and the need for society to understand the driving factors to help improve the resilience of communities. However disaster risk is driven by a plethora of factors, including population, wealth, land-use, and demographics. Consider also the natural variability in the frequency and severity of events, climate change, and implementation of resilience policies, and it becomes clear that disaster-risk management is a challenging field. To investigate the apparent upward trend in reported annual economic losses from natural disasters, socioeconomic factors known to influence the magnitude of losses must first be accounted for. Adjustment for these factors, known as loss normalisation, aims to estimate the losses sustained if historical events were to impact present day society. We have undertaken a detailed assessment of global economic losses from natural disasters for the period 1995 through 2013. Although the studied time-period is relatively short, expanding the investigated period would not necessarily produce more reliable insights owing to the inherent difficulty in obtaining accurate economic loss estimates for earlier periods and the challenge of finding consistent and reliable sources of socioeconomic data for the normalisation process. The results of the study, presented at a global and regional level, appear to suggest that the main driver of perceived increase in economic losses over the last ~20 years was the development of nations' economies (i.e. increase in population and wealth/GDP) and not in the natural hazards themselves. As populations all over the world migrate into areas of higher natural hazards regions (e.g. coastal areas or floodplain zones) and global wealth continues to increase, it will be important to continue to monitor this trend. The average annual economic losses presented herein could be used as a benchmark for the Sendai Framework which aims to "Reduce direct disaster economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030".

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Aboveground Net Primary Productivity in the Eurasian Steppe from 1982 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, C.; Yu, G.; He, N.; Chen, X.; Zhang, C.; Hu, Z.; Ge, J.

2016-12-01

Aboveground net primary productivity (NPPA) is a key integrator for characterizing vegetation activity and assessing the carbon balance of ecosystem. In this study, we combined datasets of Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and NPPA field observations to propose a remote sensing-based model for NPPA (ENPPAModel) estimation in the Eurasian steppe Region (EASR). About 25% of NPPA field observations were extracted randomly to validate ENPPAModel. ENPPAModel was then used to discuss spatiotemporal dynamics of NPPA in EASR from 1982 to 2013. Validation against field observations showed good performance of ENPPAModel over the study region, with an overall coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.66 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 19.33 g C m-2 yr-1. The annual total aboveground net primary productivity (TNPPA) of EASR was 378.97 Tg C yr-1, accounting for 26.46% of the global grasslands. For 3 subregions in EASR, the Black Sea-Kazakhstan steppe subregion had highest TNPPA, amounting to 45.67% of the EASR. The annual average aboveground net primary productivity (NPPA) was 43.78 g C m-2 yr-1 in EASR, lower than that of global grasslands and higher than that of global temperate grasslands (excluding savannas).NPPA showed apparent spatial variations, which was consistent with geographical patterns of vegetation types, reflecting hydrothermal conditions in EASR. TNPPA displayed an overall increasing trend by 0.49% per year in EASR from 1982 to 2013. TNPPA increasing trend was much greater than that of global average and North America. Temporal trends of TNPPA of EASR were significantly various during three different periods. During 1982-1995, TNPPA of EASR increased obviously due to lengthened growing season associated with warming. In the period of 1996 - 2007, TNPPA of EASR decreased significantly attributed to decreasing spring temperature in the Tibetan Plateau alpine steppe subregion and decreasing summer precipitation in the Mongolian Plateau steppe subregion. During 2008 -2013, TNPPA of EASR increased weakly resulted from increasing summer precipitation in the Mongolian Plateau steppe subregion.

The triple helix--NIH, industry, and the academic world.

PubMed Central

Lowe, C. U.

1982-01-01

Spectacular accomplishments in biomedical research have given birth to what is now perceived as a biological revolution, an epoch in which man has acquired the skill to manipulate the fundamental unit of heredity, the gene. This revolution carries with it the prospect of remarkable opportunities to improve the quality of life and to probe with increasing precision the mysteries of cellular organization and function. It comes, however, at a time when the opportunity to exploit this new knowledge may be limited by a significant reduction in federal support of basic research, and a situation which prompts universities and other centers of scientific activity to seek funding from industrial patrons. This trend has generated a new constellation of institutional challenges, for one apparent result of industrial sponsorship of university-based biomedical research is a threat to university governance as altered allegiances emerge and as the potential for financial gain appears almost limitless. This essay explores background issues leading to these new alliances, seeks to identify some of the central problems emerging for university administrators, faculty, and students, and then poses a key question: Can industrial support for university-based biomedical research fill the apparent short-fall in federal dollars in the foreseeable future? An analysis of available data indicates that this outcome is unlikely either now or in the years ahead. PMID:7180024

Sleep, serotonin, and suicide in Japan.

PubMed

Kohyama, Jun

2011-01-01

This article reviews evidence supporting the hypothesis that suicide rates in Japan could be reduced by elevating serotonin levels via increasing the average duration of sleep. Seven major relevant findings were apparent in the literature: 1) Sleep loss is associated with suicide, but the direction of causality is equivocal. 2) Decreased serotonergic activity may be involved in suicidal behavior. 3) Sleep debt may decrease serotonergic activity. 4) The suicide rate in Japan has remained at a heightened level for the past 12 years. 5) The average sleep duration in Japan has decreased over the past 40 years. 6) The average sleep duration in Japan is among the lowest in the world. 7) The average sleep duration in Japan plateaued in 1995 and has been relatively stable since. From the research reviewed, two major problematic issues were apparent: 1) Most people in Japan receive inadequate sleep. 2) Individuals whose sleep is inadequate are unlikely to be sufficiently physically active to stimulate serotonergic systems to a desirable level. I propose that public health initiatives encouraging a longer duration of sleep may provide a relatively simple way of addressing the disturbing current trend in Japan. The combination of actigraph and brain serotonin level measurement could allow large population-based cohort studies to be designed, to elucidate the causal links between sleep duration, serotonin levels, and suicide rates.

Low birth weight in São Luís, northeastern Brazil: trends and associated factors

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To analyze trends in LBW (low birth weight) rate using birth registry data and identify factors associated with LBW in São Luís comparing two birth cohorts separated by a 12-year interval. Methods 2,426 births were included in 1997/98 and 5,040 in 2010. The dependent variable was LBW (<2,500 g). Multiple logistic regression was performed to determine the association of independent variables with LBW. Data were also obtained from SINASC (Brazilian National Birth Registry) to analyze stillbirth and LBW rates trends from 1996 to 2010, using 3-year moving averages. Results LBW, intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) and preterm birth rates did not differ between the two cohorts. Despite this, birth registry data showed increasing LBW rate up to 2001, coinciding with decreasing stillbirth rate. Both stillbirth and LBW rates decreased thereafter. A significant reduction was observed in the percentage of teenage mothers, mothers with up to 4 years of education, family income up to one minimum wage and mothers who did not attend prenatal care. There was an increase in maternal age ≥35 years and schooling ≥12 years. The variables associated with LBW in 1997/98 were young maternal age (<18 years), maternal smoking during pregnancy and primiparity. Variables that remained in the adjusted model in 2010 were female gender, income <3 minimum wages, lack of prenatal care, maternal smoking during pregnancy and primiparity. Conclusions Although LBW rate did not differ between the two cohorts, this apparent stability masked an increase up to 2001 and a decrease thereafter. The rise in LBW rate paralleled reduction in the stillbirth rate, suggesting improvement in obstetrical and newborn care. Maternal, socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with LBW differed between the two cohorts, except for smoking during pregnancy and parity that were significantly associated with LBW in both cohorts. PMID:24885887

Geospatial analysis of cyclist injury trends: an investigation in Melbourne, Australia.

PubMed

Lawrence, Brendan M; Stevenson, Mark R; Oxley, Jennifer A; Logan, David B

2015-01-01

This study applied geospatial analysis to explore spatial trends in cycling-related injury in Melbourne, Australia, in order to identify an area where injury density was reducing against expectation. The crash characteristics and cycling environment of the identified area were examined to better understand factors related to cycling safety. Two methods were used to examine spatial trends in cycling-related injury. Firstly, cycling injury density was calculated using a kernel density estimation method for the years 2000 to 2011. This was used to examine patterns in injury density across Melbourne over an extended time period. Secondly, absolute change in injury density was calculated between 2005 and 2011. From this, a geographical area presenting a reduced injury density was selected for a case study, and crash characteristics of the area were obtained for the observational period. This led to discussion on which changes to the cycling environment, if any, may be associated with the reduced injury rate. Injury density in Melbourne had been progressively increasing between 2000 and 2011, with a nearly 3-fold increase in the peak injury density over that period. Decreases were observed in some locations between 2005 and 2011, and a geographical area to the southeast of Melbourne experienced a more significant decrease than others. This appeared to be associated with a combination of behavior and road infrastructure change, although a lack of data to verify change in cycling exposure prevented more definitive associations from being established. The apparent positive response of the injury rate to behavior and road infrastructure interventions is promising, yet the injury rate is unlikely to achieve the government's road safety target of 30% reduction in serious injuries by 2022. Moreover, the number of injuries sustained at the most common crash location appears to be increasing. Further research is necessary to discern which specific features of the urban road infrastructure have an effect on the risk of injury to a cyclist and which combination of features is consistent with a safe cycling environment.

Remembrance of ecohydrologic extremes past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Band, L. E.; Hwang, T.

2013-12-01

Ecohydrological systems operate at time scales that span several orders of magnitude. Significant processes and feedbacks range from subdaily physiologic response to meteorological drivers, to soil forming and geomorphic processes ranging up through 10^3-10^4 years. While much attention in ecohydrology has focused on ecosystem optimization paradigms, these systems can show significant transience in structure and function, with apparent memory of hydroclimate extremes and regime shifts. While optimization feedbacks can be reconciled with system transience, a better understanding of the time scales and mechanisms of adjustment to increased hydroclimate variability and to specific events is required to understand and predict dynamics and vulnerability of ecosystems. Under certain circumstances of slowly varying hydroclimate, we hypothesize that ecosystems can remain adjusted to changing climate regimes, without displaying apparent system memory. Alternatively, rapid changes in hydroclimate and increased hydroclimate variability, amplified with well expressed non-linearity in the processes controlling feedbacks between water, carbon and nutrients, can move ecosystems far from adjusted states. The Coweeta Hydrological Laboratory is typical of humid, broadleaf forests in eastern North America, with a range of forest biomes from northern hardwoods at higher elevations, to oak-pine assemblages at lower elevations. The site provides almost 80 years of rainfall-runoff records for a set of watersheds under different management, along with multi-decadal forest plot structural information, soil moisture conditions and stream chemistry. An initial period of multi-decadal cooling, was followed by three decades of warming and increased hydroclimate variability. While mean temperature has risen over this time period, precipitation shows no long term trends in the mean, but has had a significant rise in variability with repeated extreme drought and wet periods. Over this latter period, intra and interannual shifts of canopy structure and phenology are discernable, along with long term canopy adjustment. We use a combination of field observations, long term remote sensing records and distributed ecohydrological modeling to investigate transient behavior, apparent memory and mechanisms of ecosystem adjustment to hydroclimate variability and change over the range of biomes in the watershed.

Growth, nutrient digestibility, ileal digesta viscosity, and energy metabolizability of growing turkeys fed diets containing malted sorghum sprouts supplemented with enzyme or yeast.

PubMed

Oke, F O; Oso, A O; Oduguwa, O O; Jegede, A V; Südekum, K-H; Fafiolu, A O; Pirgozliev, V

2017-06-01

Growth, apparent nutrient digestibility, ileal digesta viscosity, and energy metabolizability of growing turkeys fed diets containing malted sorghum sprouts (MSP) supplemented with enzyme or yeast were investigated using 120, 28-day-old male turkeys. Six treatments were laid out in a 3 × 2 factorial arrangement of treatments with three dietary inclusion levels of MSP (0, 50, and 100 g/kg) and supplemented with 200 mg/kg yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) or 200 mg/kg of a commercial enzyme. The experiment lasted for the starter (day 28-56) and grower phases (day 57-84) of the birds. Each treatment group consisted of 20 turkeys replicated four times with five birds each. Data were analysed using analysis of variance while polynomial contrast was used to determine the trends (linear and quadratic) of MSP inclusion levels. Irrespective of dietary supplementation with enzyme or yeast, final body weight (BW), total BW gain, and feed intake for turkey poults from day 29-56 was reduced (p < 0.05) with increasing inclusion level of MSP. Dietary supplementation with yeast resulted in increased (p < 0.05) feed intake while enzyme supplementation improved (p < 0.05) feed conversion ratio of the poults. Turkeys fed enzyme-supplemented MSP diets had higher (p < 0.05) BW gain than their counterparts fed yeast-supplemented MSP diets. Apparent ash digestibility reduced linearly (p < 0.05) with increasing inclusion levels of MSP. Apparent metabolizable energy (AME) did not vary significantly (p > 0.05) with MSP inclusion levels. Enzyme supplementation reduced (p < 0.05) ileal viscosity but had no effect (p > 0.05) on AME. Inclusion of MSP resulted in poor growth performance. This confirms earlier studies that utilization of MSP by poultry is rather poor. Supplementation with enzyme or yeast did not lead to any appreciable improvement in performance of turkeys in this study. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Rollover of Apparent Wave Attenuation in Ice Covered Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingkai; Kohout, Alison L.; Doble, Martin J.; Wadhams, Peter; Guan, Changlong; Shen, Hayley H.

2017-11-01

Wave attenuation from two field experiments in the ice-covered Southern Ocean is examined. Instead of monotonically increasing with shorter waves, the measured apparent attenuation rate peaks at an intermediate wave period. This "rollover" phenomenon has been postulated as the result of wind input and nonlinear energy transfer between wave frequencies. Using WAVEWATCH III®, we first validate the model results with available buoy data, then use the model data to analyze the apparent wave attenuation. With the choice of source parameterizations used in this study, it is shown that rollover of the apparent attenuation exists when wind input and nonlinear transfer are present, independent of the different wave attenuation models used. The period of rollover increases with increasing distance between buoys. Furthermore, the apparent attenuation for shorter waves drops with increasing separation between buoys or increasing wind input. These phenomena are direct consequences of the wind input and nonlinear energy transfer, which offset the damping caused by the intervening ice.

Recognition on space photographs of structural elements of Baja California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, W.

1971-01-01

Gemini and Apollo photographs provide illustrations of known structural features of the peninsula and some structures not recognized previously. An apparent transform relationship between strike-slip and normal faulting is illustrated by the overlapping vertical photographs of northern Baja California. The active Agua Blanca right-lateral strike-slip fault trends east-southeastward to end at the north end of the Valle San Felipe and Valle Chico. The uplands of the high Sierra San Pedro Martir are a low-relief surface deformed by young faults, monoclines, and warps, which mostly produce west-facing steps and slopes; the topography is basically structural. The Sierra Cucapas of northeasternmost Baja California and the Colorado River delta of northwesternmost Sonora are broken by northwest-trending strike-slip faults. A strike-slip fault is inferred to trend northward obliquely from near Cabo San Lucas to La Paz, thence offshore until it comes ashore again as the Bahia Concepcion strike-slip fault.

[Variation characteristics of runoff coefficient of Taizi River basin in 1967-2006].

PubMed

Deng, Jun-Li; Zhang, Yong-Fang; Wang, An-Zhi; Guan, De-Xin; Jin, Chang-Jie; Wu, Jia-Bing

2011-06-01

Based on the daily precipitation and runoff data of six main embranchments (Haicheng River, Nansha River, Beisha River, Lanhe River, Xihe River, and Taizi River south embranchment) of Taizi River basin in 1967-2006, this paper analyzed the variation trend of runoff coefficient of the embranchments as well as the relationship between this variation trend and precipitation. In 1967-2006, the Taizi River south embranchment located in alpine hilly area had the largest mean annual runoff coefficient, while the Haicheng River located in plain area had the relatively small one. The annual runoff coefficient of the embranchments except Nansha River showed a decreasing trend, being more apparent for Taizi River south embranchment and Lanhe River. All the embranchments except Xihe River had an obvious abrupt change in the annual runoff coefficient, and the beginning year of the abrupt change differed with embranchment. Annual precipitation had significant effects on the annual runoff coefficient.

Analysis and modeling of flicker noise in lateral asymmetric channel MOSFETs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agarwal, Harshit; Kushwaha, Pragya; Gupta, Chetan; Khandelwal, Sourabh; Hu, Chenming; Chauhan, Yogesh Singh

2016-01-01

In this paper, flicker noise behavior of lateral non-uniformly doped MOSFET is studied using impedance field method. Our study shows that Klaassen Prins (KP) method, which forms the basis of noise model in MOSFETs, underestimates flicker noise in such devices. The same KP method overestimates thermal noise by 2-3 orders of magnitude in similar devices as demonstrated in Roy et al. (2007). This apparent discrepancy between thermal and flicker noise behavior lies in origin of these noises, which leads to opposite trend of local noise power spectral density vs doping. We have modeled the physics behind such behavior, which also explain the trends observed in the measurements (Agarwal et al., 2015).

The effect of liming on antibacterial and hormone levels in wastewater biosolids.

PubMed

Olszewski, Jennifer M; Lozano, Nuria; Haines, Christine; Rice, Clifford P; Ramirez, Mark; Torrents, Alba

2013-01-01

This study analyzes the effect of liming on levels of triclocarban (TCC), triclosan (TCS), estrone (E1), and progesterone (P), two antimicrobial agents and two natural hormones, respectively. Factors studied include lime particle size, mixing time, and overall lime contact time. The study results suggest that coarse lime may be more active than fine lime due to less interaction with surrounding air. Both TCS and TCC concentrations were lower in coarse limed samples versus unlimed samples and the decrease was a function of time. A similar, but statistically insignificant trend in TCC and TCS levels was observed in fine lime samples with respect to unlimed samples. Liming was also found to decrease apparent E1 levels, with more notable decreases in samples amended with coarse lime. P-levels significantly increased after 1-day of contact time, stabilizing over the next 14 days of the study period. This increase and stabilization of P-levels was attributed to the pH and moisture-driven conversion of more chemically complex steroids into P.

Pan-African alkali granites and syenites of Kerala as imprints of taphrogenic magmatism in the South Indian shield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santosh, M.; Drury, S. A.; Iyer, S. S.

1988-01-01

Granite and syenite plutons with alkaline affinities ranging in age from 550 to 750 Ma sporadically puncture the Precambrian granulites of the Kerala region. All the bodies are small (20 to 60 sq km), E-W to NW-SE elongated elliptical intrusives with sharp contacts and lie on or close to major late Proterozoic lineaments. Geochemical plots of A-F-M and An-Ab-Or relations show an apparent alkali enrichment trend on the former, but the plutons define relatively distinct fields on the latter. Most of the plutons are adamellitic to granitic by chemistry. The variations of SiO2 with log sub 10 K2O/MgO (1) brings out the distinct alkaline nature of the plutons. Some of the granites are extremely potassic, like the Peralimala pluton, which shows up to 11.8 percent K2O. On a SiO2-Al2O3-Na2O+K2O (mol percent) plot, the plutons vary from peraluminous to peralkaline, but none are nepheline normative. Low MgO, low to moderate CaO and high Fe2O3/FeO values are other common characteristics. Among trace elements, depletion of Ba, Sr and Rb with high K/Ba and K/Rb values are typical. Overall, the plutons show a trend of decreasing K/Rb ratio with increasing K content. Individual plutons show more clearly defined trends similar to those from granitic masses characterized by plagioclase fractionation.

The Nanograv Nine-Year Data Set: Measurement and Analysis of Variations in Dispersion Measures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, M. L.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Lam, M. T.; Cordes, J. M.; Levin, L.; Chatterjee, S.; Arzoumanian, Z.; Crowter, K.; Demorest, P. B.; Dolch, T.;

Joint variability of global runoff and global sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2008-01-01

Global land surface runoff and sea surface temperatures (SST) are analyzed to identify the primary modes of variability of these hydroclimatic data for the period 1905-2002. A monthly water-balance model first is used with global monthly temperature and precipitation data to compute time series of annual gridded runoff for the analysis period. The annual runoff time series data are combined with gridded annual sea surface temperature data, and the combined dataset is subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to identify the primary modes of variability. The first three components from the PCA explain 29% of the total variability in the combined runoff/SST dataset. The first component explains 15% of the total variance and primarily represents long-term trends in the data. The long-term trends in SSTs are evident as warming in all of the oceans. The associated long-term trends in runoff suggest increasing flows for parts of North America, South America, Eurasia, and Australia; decreasing runoff is most notable in western Africa. The second principal component explains 9% of the total variance and reflects variability of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its associated influence on global annual runoff patterns. The third component explains 5% of the total variance and indicates a response of global annual runoff to variability in North Aflantic SSTs. The association between runoff and North Atlantic SSTs may explain an apparent steplike change in runoff that occurred around 1970 for a number of continental regions.

Labour Market Trends and Active Labour Market Policy in the Eastern German Transformation Process 1990-1997. IAB Labour Market Research Topics no. 29.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bach, Hans-Uwe; Blaschke, Dieter; Blien, Uwe; Brinkmann, Christian; Fuchs, Johann; Gutsche, Matthias; Moeller, Ulrich; Kuhl, Jurgen; Spitznagel, Eugen; Steckel, Werner; Wiedemann, Eberhard; Wolfinger, Claudia

After German unification in 1990, more than 3 million jobs disappeared in eastern Germany and the obsolescence of eastern German capital stock became apparent. Further escalation of mass unemployment was successfully held in check; however, it soon became clear that labor market policies appropriate for western Germany were not, in and of…

Temperature in Science Textbooks: Changes and Trends in Cross-National Perspective (1950-2000)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radtka, Catherine

2013-01-01

This study explores the way the concept of temperature was presented in lower-secondary science textbooks in France, Poland and England at the end of the 1950s and in the 2000s. I draw on history of science, history of education and book history to analyze different treatments of an apparently-similar scientific concept with regard to national…

Factors That Predict Organizational Commitment for Full-Time and Part-Time Faculty in Community Colleges across North Carolina

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Engle, Deborah Lynn

2010-01-01

Organizational dependence on part-time employees is a relatively recent trend across the modern landscape of the American workforce and is especially apparent in higher education. At community colleges across the country, as well as in North Carolina, there is a substantial reliance on part-time faculty employment. This is common practice in order…

Time trends for thyroid cancer in northwestern Spain: true rise in the incidence of micro and larger forms of papillary thyroid carcinoma.

PubMed

Rego-Iraeta, Antonia; Pérez-Méndez, Luisa F; Mantinan, Beatriz; Garcia-Mayor, Ricardo V

2009-04-01

Thyroid cancer incidence is increasing throughout the world. Most studies attribute this rise entirely to the increase in papillary carcinoma, the most common thyroid malignancy in iodine-sufficient areas. A variety of nonetiological factors such as changes in clinical practice may affect the incidence of thyroid cancer and some researchers have suggested that this rise is only apparent due to an increase in diagnostic activity. Since data on the epidemiology of thyroid cancer in Spain are scarce, the main goal of this study was to analyze changes in thyroid cancer presentation, incidence, and prevalence in Vigo (northwestern Spain) between 1978 and 2001, and to investigate the relationship between the incidence rates and trends in tumor size and thyroid surgery. In this descriptive epidemiologic study, an analysis was carried out on new thyroid cancer cases obtained from the Pathology Registry of the University Hospital of Vigo (500,000 inhabitants). Trends in age, sex, thyroid surgery, histological type, tumor size, and incidence rates were calculated. The prevalence of thyroid cancer was determined in three cross-sectional surveys. The rate of population undergoing thyroid surgery significantly increased over time. Out of 322 new primary thyroid cancers, papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) was the predominant type (76%). The age-standardized incidence rate shows a significant increase in females: 1.56 per 100,000 year (1978 to 1985) to 3.83 (1986 to 1993) and 8.23 (1994 to 2001); and in males: 0.33, 1.19, and 2.65, respectively. PTC was mainly responsible for this pattern and was the result of both the increase in micropapillary thyroid carcinoma (MPTC) incidence and in PTC measuring more than 1 cm. Besides MPTC cases, no significant variations were observed in tumor size over time. In northwestern Spain, the incidence of thyroid cancer is increasing. These data should be taken into account when planning health resources for these patients. Our results may reflect the contribution that other factors, besides increased diagnostic activity, have made to the rise in thyroid cancer incidence in our region. Additional studies are needed to explain the rise in PTC incidence throughout the world and to search for potential risk factors that are currently unrecognized.

Investigation of lineaments on Skylab and ERTS images of Peninsular Ranges, Southwestern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merifield, P. M. (Principal Investigator); Lamar, D. L.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Northwest trending faults such as the Elsinore and San Jacinto are prominently displayed on Skylab and ERTS images of the Peninsular Ranges, southern California. Northeast, north-south, and west-north-west trending lineaments and faults are also apparent on satellite imagery. Several of the lineaments represent previously unmapped faults. Other lineaments are due to erosion along foliation directions and sharp bends in basement rock contacts rather than faulting. The northeast trending Thing Valley fault appears to be offset by the south branch of the Elsinore fault near Agua Caliente Hot Springs. Larger horizontal displacement along the Elsinore fault further northwest may be distributed along several faults which branch from the Elsinore fault in the Peninsular Ranges. The northeast and west-northwest trending faults are truncated by the major northwest trending faults and appear to be restricted to basement terrane. Limited data on displacement direction suggests that the northeast and west-northwest trending faults formed in response to an earlier period of east-northeast, west-southwest crustal shortening. Such a stress system is consistent with the plate tectonic model of a subduction zone parallel to the continental margin suggested in the late Mesozoic and early Tertiary.

Changes in antidepressant medications prescribing trends in children and adolescents in Hawai'i following the FDA black box warning.

PubMed

Hassanin, Hanan; Harbi, Al; Saif, Abdullah; Davis, Jim; Easa, David; Harrigan, Rosanne

2010-01-01

To study prescribing trends for antidepressants in Hawai'i following the FDA black box warning regarding the possible risk of suicide in children and adolescents. We also explored relationships between changes in prescribing trends and patient and provider characteristics. Analysis of an existing insurance data set of prescriptions to children and adolescents within the State of Hawai'i. Children and adolescents under 18-years-old insured through the largest (>60%) third-party insurance company in the state. Our results showed variations in changes in prescribing trends for different selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) following the FDA black box warning. SSRIs with more evidence-based research supporting their safety and efficacy were least affected as were those that were less implicated by the FDA analysis of the possible link between SSRIs and Suicidality. Trends were apparent for all age groups examined and for both females and males. Changes in prescribing patterns of psychiatric medications for children and adolescents in Hawai'i were identified. Differing patterns have evolved since 2003 following the series of concerns raised regarding SSRIs and suicidality in children and adolescents.

Emerging climate change signals in the interior ocean oxygen content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjiputra, Jerry; Goris, Nadine; Schwinger, Jörg; Lauvset, Siv

2017-04-01

Earth System Models (ESMs) indicate that human-induced climate change will introduce spatially heterogeneous modifications of dissolved oxygen in the North Atlantic. In the upper ocean, an increase (decrease) is predicted at low (high) latitude. Oxygen increase is driven by a reduction of the oxygen consumption for biological remineralization while warming-induced reduction in air-sea fluxes and increase in remineralization due to weaker overturning circulation lead to the projected decrease. In the interior ocean, modifications in the apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) dominate the overall oxygen changes. Moreover, for the southern subpolar gyre, both observations and model hindcast indicate a close relationship between interior ocean oxygen and the subpolar gyre index. Over the 21st century, all ESMs consistently project a steady weakening of this index and consequently the oxygen. Our finding shows that climate change-induced oxygen depletion in the interior has likely occurred and can already be detected. Nevertheless, considering the observational uncertainties, we show that in the proximity of southern subpolar gyre the projected interior trend is sufficiently large enough for early detection.

An examination of an adapter method for measuring the vibration transmitted to the human arms.

PubMed

Xu, Xueyan S; Dong, Ren G; Welcome, Daniel E; Warren, Christopher; McDowell, Thomas W

2015-09-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate an adapter method for measuring the vibration on the human arms. Four instrumented adapters with different weights were used to measure the vibration transmitted to the wrist, forearm, and upper arm of each subject. Each adapter was attached at each location on the subjects using an elastic cloth wrap. Two laser vibrometers were also used to measure the transmitted vibration at each location to evaluate the validity of the adapter method. The apparent mass at the palm of the hand along the forearm direction was also measured to enhance the evaluation. This study found that the adapter and laser-measured transmissibility spectra were comparable with some systematic differences. While increasing the adapter mass reduced the resonant frequency at the measurement location, increasing the tightness of the adapter attachment increased the resonant frequency. However, the use of lightweight (≤15 g) adapters under medium attachment tightness did not change the basic trends of the transmissibility spectrum. The resonant features observed in the transmissibility spectra were also correlated with those observed in the apparent mass spectra. Because the local coordinate systems of the adapters may be significantly misaligned relative to the global coordinates of the vibration test systems, large errors were observed for the adapter-measured transmissibility in some individual orthogonal directions. This study, however, also demonstrated that the misalignment issue can be resolved by either using the total vibration transmissibility or by measuring the misalignment angles to correct the errors. Therefore, the adapter method is acceptable for understanding the basic characteristics of the vibration transmission in the human arms, and the adapter-measured data are acceptable for approximately modeling the system.

An examination of an adapter method for measuring the vibration transmitted to the human arms

PubMed Central

Xu, Xueyan S.; Dong, Ren G.; Welcome, Daniel E.; Warren, Christopher; McDowell, Thomas W.

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate an adapter method for measuring the vibration on the human arms. Four instrumented adapters with different weights were used to measure the vibration transmitted to the wrist, forearm, and upper arm of each subject. Each adapter was attached at each location on the subjects using an elastic cloth wrap. Two laser vibrometers were also used to measure the transmitted vibration at each location to evaluate the validity of the adapter method. The apparent mass at the palm of the hand along the forearm direction was also measured to enhance the evaluation. This study found that the adapter and laser-measured transmissibility spectra were comparable with some systematic differences. While increasing the adapter mass reduced the resonant frequency at the measurement location, increasing the tightness of the adapter attachment increased the resonant frequency. However, the use of lightweight (≤15 g) adapters under medium attachment tightness did not change the basic trends of the transmissibility spectrum. The resonant features observed in the transmissibility spectra were also correlated with those observed in the apparent mass spectra. Because the local coordinate systems of the adapters may be significantly misaligned relative to the global coordinates of the vibration test systems, large errors were observed for the adapter-measured transmissibility in some individual orthogonal directions. This study, however, also demonstrated that the misalignment issue can be resolved by either using the total vibration transmissibility or by measuring the misalignment angles to correct the errors. Therefore, the adapter method is acceptable for understanding the basic characteristics of the vibration transmission in the human arms, and the adapter-measured data are acceptable for approximately modeling the system. PMID:26834309

Characterizing the effect of summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency ambulance dispatches in the Kanto area of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Ueda, Kayo; Ono, Masaji; Nitta, Hiroshi; Takami, Akinori

2014-07-01

Despite rising concern on the impact of heat on human health, the risk of high summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency dispatches is not well understood in Japan. A time-series study was conducted to examine the association between apparent temperature and daily heatstroke-related ambulance dispatches (HSAD) within the Kanto area of Japan. A total of 12,907 HSAD occurring from 2000 to 2009 in five major cities—Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama—were analyzed. Generalized additive models and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used to estimate the effects of daily maximum three-hour apparent temperature (AT) on dispatch frequency from May to September, with adjustment for seasonality, long-term trend, weekends, and public holidays. Linear and non-linear exposure effects were considered. Effects on days when AT first exceeded its summer median were also investigated. City-specific estimates were combined using random effects meta-analyses. Exposure-response relationship was found to be fairly linear. Significant risk increase began from 21 °C with a combined relative risk (RR) of 1.22 (95 % confidence interval, 1.03-1.44), increasing to 1.49 (1.42-1.57) at peak AT. When linear exposure was assumed, combined RR was 1.43 (1.37-1.50) per degree Celsius increment. Overall association was significant the first few times when median AT was initially exceeded in a particular warm season. More than two-thirds of these initial hot days were in June, implying the harmful effect of initial warming as the season changed. Risk increase that began early at the fairly mild perceived temperature implies the need for early precaution.

Characterizing the effect of summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency ambulance dispatches in the Kanto area of Japan.

PubMed

Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Ueda, Kayo; Ono, Masaji; Nitta, Hiroshi; Takami, Akinori

2014-07-01

Despite rising concern on the impact of heat on human health, the risk of high summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency dispatches is not well understood in Japan. A time-series study was conducted to examine the association between apparent temperature and daily heatstroke-related ambulance dispatches (HSAD) within the Kanto area of Japan. A total of 12,907 HSAD occurring from 2000 to 2009 in five major cities-Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama-were analyzed. Generalized additive models and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used to estimate the effects of daily maximum three-hour apparent temperature (AT) on dispatch frequency from May to September, with adjustment for seasonality, long-term trend, weekends, and public holidays. Linear and non-linear exposure effects were considered. Effects on days when AT first exceeded its summer median were also investigated. City-specific estimates were combined using random effects meta-analyses. Exposure-response relationship was found to be fairly linear. Significant risk increase began from 21 °C with a combined relative risk (RR) of 1.22 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.44), increasing to 1.49 (1.42-1.57) at peak AT. When linear exposure was assumed, combined RR was 1.43 (1.37-1.50) per degree Celsius increment. Overall association was significant the first few times when median AT was initially exceeded in a particular warm season. More than two-thirds of these initial hot days were in June, implying the harmful effect of initial warming as the season changed. Risk increase that began early at the fairly mild perceived temperature implies the need for early precaution.

Epistatic interaction between the monoamine oxidase A and serotonin transporter genes in anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Urwin, Ruth Elizabeth; Nunn, Kenneth Patrick

2005-03-01

The serotonin (5-HT) and norepinephrine (NE) systems are likely involved in the aetiology of anorexia nervosa (AN) as sufferers are premorbidly anxious. Specifically, we hypothesize that genes encoding proteins, which clear 5-HT and NE from the synapse, are prime candidates for affecting susceptibility to AN. Supporting our hypothesis, we earlier showed that the NE transporter (NET) and monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) genes appear to contribute additively to increased risk of developing restricting AN (AN-R). With regard to the MAOA gene, a sequence variant that increases MAOA activity and has suggested association with the anxiety condition, panic disorder was preferentially transmitted from parents to affected children. Here we provide evidence in support of interaction between the MAOA and serotonin transporter (SERT) genes in 114 AN nuclear families (patient with AN plus biological parents). A SERT gene genotype with no apparent individual effect on risk and known to be associated with anxiety is preferentially transmitted to children with AN (chi2 trend=9.457, 1 df, P=0.0021) and AN-R alone (chi2 trend=7.477, 1 df, P=0.0063) when the 'more active' MAOA gene variant is also transmitted. The increased risk of developing the disorder is up to eight times greater than the risk imposed by the MAOA gene variant alone--an example of synergistic epistatic interaction. If independently replicated, our findings to date suggest that we may have identified three genes affecting susceptibility to AN, particularly AN-R: the MAOA, SERT, and NET genes.

Tannin diagenesis in mangrove leaves from a tropical estuary: A novel molecular approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hernes, P.J.; Benner, R.; Cowie, G.L.; Goi, M.A.; Bergamaschi, B.A.; Hedges, J.I.

2001-01-01

Molecular-level condensed tannin analyses were conducted on a series of mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) leaves at various stages of decomposition in a tropical estuary. Total molecular tannin yields ranged from 0.5% ash-free dry weight (AFDW) in the most highly degraded black leaves (6-7 weeks in the water) up to >7% AFDW in fresh leaves (80% procyanidin (PC) with the remainder being prodelphinidin (PD). PD tannin, with its higher degree of hydroxylation, proved to be more labile than PC tannin. Average chain length of condensed tannin (degree of polymerization) exhibited an initial increase in response to leaching, but later decreased in the subsequent shift toward abiotic or microbially mediated chemical reactions. Several trends point toward a possible condensation reaction in which tannin plays a role in nitrogen immobilization. These include an apparent inverse correlation between molecular tannin and nitrogen, a positive correlation between molecular tannin and percent basic amino acids, 13C-NMR data indicating transformation of tannin as opposed to remineralization, and 13C-NMR data showing loss of condensed tannin B-ring phenolic carbons coupled with preservation of A-ring phenolic carbon. In addition to condensed tannin, the molecular method used also yielded several triterpenoids. Triterpenoids accounted for up to 3.5% AFDW of the leaf material and exhibited a threefold increase between yellow senescent leaves entering the estuary and black leaves. This trend is likely due to the weakening of protective cuticular membranes during leaf decomposition, which leads to increased yields in the acidic conditions used for tannin analyses. Copyright ?? 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Increased use of inhaled corticosteroids among young Danish adult asthmatics: an observational study.

PubMed

Davidsen, Jesper Rømhild; Søndergaard, Jens; Hallas, Jesper; Siersted, Hans Christian; Lykkegaard, Jesper; Andersen, Morten

2010-12-01

This population-based longitudinal study aimed to investigate trends in use of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) and determinants of ICS use in young Danish adults with asthma. 106 757 users, aged 18-44 years, of anti-asthmatic drugs were identified in the Danish Register of Medical Product Statistics during 1997-2006. One year prevalences of ICS use were calculated in categories of gender, age, and annual consumption of inhaled beta-2-agonists (IBA) in defined daily doses (DDD) per year. Determinants of ICS use were estimated by logistic regression models. The one year prevalence of ICS use was constant, approximately 64%, during 1997-2000. An annual increase was observed from 67% in 2001 to 77% in 2006. This trend also existed when stratifying on gender, age and IBA use. Using 1997 as baseline, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of ICS use in 2000 was 0.98 (95% CI 0.96-1.01) compared to 1.12 (95% CI 1.09-1.15) in 2001, and 1.81 (95% CI 1.75-1.87) in 2006. Other determinants of high ICS use were female gender, young age, and high annual IBA consumption. Among those using at least 400 DDD of IBA per year (corresponding to 4.4 powder inhalations daily), nearly 20% had no ICS prescriptions in 2006. Treatment with ICS among young Danish adult asthmatics has increased since 2001. This apparent improvement was associated with the introduction of fixed dose combination inhalers with ICS and inhaled long-acting beta-2-agonists. However, there is still room for improvement. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Improving Suicide Death Classification in South Korea: A Comparison with Japan and Hong Kong

PubMed Central

Chan, Chee Hon; Caine, Eric D.; Chang, Shu Sen; Lee, Won Jin; Cha, Eun Shil; Yip, Paul Siu Fai

2015-01-01

Introduction The suicide rate of South Korea has increased dramatically during the past decades, as opposed to steadily decreasing trends in Japan and Hong Kong. Although the recent increase of suicide in South Korea may be related to changing socioeconomic conditions and other contextual factors, it may also reflect, in part, a reduction of misidentified suicide cases due to improving classification of manner of death. Method We compared the annual proportional change of suicide, undetermined death, and accidental death from South Korea with those of Japan and Hong Kong from 1992 to 2011; a greater proportional change of the manner-of-death categories during the period is indicative of a relatively less stable registration and hence a greater potential for misclassification bias on reported suicide trends. Subgroup analyses stratifying the deaths by methods were also conducted. To estimate the impact, the age-standardized rates of these three death categories in each site were calculated. Results We found that, during the 20-year observation period, the proportional change of suicide, undetermined death, and accidental death in South Korea was significantly greater than Japan and Hong Kong. Similar observations were made in subgroup analyses. While death rates of the three manners in Japan and Hong Kong generally moved in a parallel fashion, the increase of suicide in South Korea occurred concomitantly with a significant reduction of its accidental death rate. 43% of the increase in suicides could be attributed to the decrease in accidental deaths, while 57% of the increase could be due to fundamental causes. Conclusion Our data suggest that, during the mid-1990s and after, the increasing burden of suicide in South Korea initially was masked, in part, by misclassification. Thus, the later apparently rapid increase of suicides reflected steadily improving classification of manner of death, as well as a more fundamental increase in the suicide rate. PMID:25992879

The impact of improving suicide death classification in South Korea: a comparison with Japan and Hong Kong.

PubMed

Chan, Chee Hon; Caine, Eric D; Chang, Shu Sen; Lee, Won Jin; Cha, Eun Shil; Yip, Paul Siu Fai

2015-01-01

The suicide rate of South Korea has increased dramatically during the past decades, as opposed to steadily decreasing trends in Japan and Hong Kong. Although the recent increase of suicide in South Korea may be related to changing socioeconomic conditions and other contextual factors, it may also reflect, in part, a reduction of misidentified suicide cases due to improving classification of manner of death. We compared the annual proportional change of suicide, undetermined death, and accidental death from South Korea with those of Japan and Hong Kong from 1992 to 2011; a greater proportional change of the manner-of-death categories during the period is indicative of a relatively less stable registration and hence a greater potential for misclassification bias on reported suicide trends. Subgroup analyses stratifying the deaths by methods were also conducted. To estimate the impact, the age-standardized rates of these three death categories in each site were calculated. We found that, during the 20-year observation period, the proportional change of suicide, undetermined death, and accidental death in South Korea was significantly greater than Japan and Hong Kong. Similar observations were made in subgroup analyses. While death rates of the three manners in Japan and Hong Kong generally moved in a parallel fashion, the increase of suicide in South Korea occurred concomitantly with a significant reduction of its accidental death rate. 43% of the increase in suicides could be attributed to the decrease in accidental deaths, while 57% of the increase could be due to fundamental causes. Our data suggest that, during the mid-1990s and after, the increasing burden of suicide in South Korea initially was masked, in part, by misclassification. Thus, the later apparently rapid increase of suicides reflected steadily improving classification of manner of death, as well as a more fundamental increase in the suicide rate.

Biometric gonioscopy and the effects of age, race, and sex on the anterior chamber angle

PubMed Central

Congdon, N G; Foster, P J; Wamsley, S; Gutmark, J; Nolan, W; Seah, S K; Johnson, G J; Broman, A T

2002-01-01

Aim: To utilise a novel method for making measurements in the anterior chamber in order to compare the anterior chamber angles of people of European, African, and east Asian descent aged 40 years and over. Methods: A cross sectional study on 15 people of each sex from each decade from the 40s to the 70s, from each of three racial groups—black, white, and Chinese Singaporeans. Biometric gonioscopy (BG) utilises a slit lamp mounted reticule to make measurements from the apparent iris insertion to Schwalbe's line through a Goldmann one mirror goniolens. The main outcome measures were BG measurements of the anterior chamber angle as detailed above. Results: There was no significant difference in angle measurement between black, white, and Chinese races in this study. However, at younger ages people of Chinese race appeared to have deeper angles than white or black people, whereas the angles of older Chinese were significantly narrower (p = 0.004 for the difference in slope of BG by age between Chinese and both black and white people). Conclusion: The failure to detect a difference in angle measurements between these groups was surprising, given the much higher prevalence of angle closure among Chinese. It appears that the overall apparent similarity of BG means between Chinese and Western populations may mask very different trends with age. The apparently more rapid decline in angle width measurements with age among Chinese may be due to the higher prevalence of cataract or “creeping angle closure.” However, longitudinal inferences from cross sectional data are problematic, and this may represent a cohort phenomenon caused by the increasing prevalence of myopia in the younger Singaporean population. PMID:11801496

Improving standard of care through introduction of laparoscopy for the surgical management of gynecological malignancies.

PubMed

Bogani, Giorgio; Cromi, Antonella; Serati, Maurizio; Di Naro, Edoardo; Casarin, Jvan; Pinelli, Ciro; Candeloro, Ilario; Sturla, Davide; Ghezzi, Fabio

2015-05-01

This study aimed to evaluate the impact on perioperative and medium-term oncologic outcomes of the implementation of laparoscopy into a preexisting oncologic setting. Data from consecutive 736 patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage gynecological malignancies (endometrial, cervical, and adnexal cancers) between 2000 and 2011 were reviewed. Complications were graded per the Accordion classification. Survival outcomes within the first 5 years were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier method. Overall, 493 (67%), 162 (22%), and 81 (11%) had surgery for apparent early stage endometrial, cervical, and adnexal cancer. We assisted at an increase of the number of patients undergoing surgery via laparoscopy through the years (from 10% in the years 2000-2003 to 82% in years 2008-2011; P < 0.001 for trend); while the need to perform open surgery decreased dramatically (from 83% to 10%; P < 0.001). Vaginal approach was nearly stable over the years (from 7% to 8%; P = 0.76). A marked reduction in estimated blood loss, length of hospital stay, blood transfusions as well as grade greater than or equal to 3 postoperative complications over the years was observed (P < 0.001). Surgical radicality assessed lymph nodes count was not influenced by the introduction of laparoscopic approach (P > 0.05). The introduction of laparoscopy did not adversely affect medium-term (within 5 years) survival outcomes of patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage cancers of the endometrium, uterine cervix, and adnexa (P > 0.05 log-rank test). The introduction of laparoscopy into a preexisting oncologic service allows an improvement of standard of care due to a gain in perioperative results, without detriments of medium-term oncologic outcomes.

Los Angeles study of residential magnetic fields and childhood brain tumors.

PubMed

Preston-Martin, S; Navidi, W; Thomas, D; Lee, P J; Bowman, J; Pogoda, J

1996-01-15

A measurement study of residential magnetic fields and brain tumors in children that was added onto an ongoing case-control interview study in Los Angeles County, California, include 298 children under age 20 years with a primary brain tumor diagnosed from 1984 to 1991 and 298 control children identified by random digit dialing. Magnetic fields were determined for all Los Angeles homes where these 596 children lived from conception to diagnosis (1,131 homes) by mapping and coding the wiring configurations outside the home and by taking a series of exterior spot and profile measurements. In addition, for a subset of subjects (35%; 211 homes) 24-hour measurements were taken in the child's room and one other room. Although measured fields are consistently highest in the highest of the five wire code categories, fields in homes in this category are much lower in Los Angeles than in Denver, where the code originated. Brain tumor risk appears not to relate to measured fields inside (p for trend for child's room = 0.98) or outside (p for trend for front wall = 0.82) the home. An apparent increase in risk among children living at diagnosis in homes with underground wiring appears to be an artifact introduced by using current controls for historical cases because this apparent excess risk disappeared in an analysis restricted to the later years of the study when cases and controls were accrued concurrently. Our study does not show an overall association of pediatric brain tumors with measured fields, with "very high" wiring configurations, or with any of several other potential sources of exposure, such as use of various electrical appliances, but the prevalence of high fields (> 2 mG) and very high fields (> 3 mG) in Los Angeles homes was too low to detect a moderate effect of the magnitude reported in other studies.

Those ubiquitous fertility trends: United States, 1945-1979.

PubMed

Sweet, J A; Rindfuss, R R

1983-01-01

1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.

Apparent diffusion coefficient evaluation for secondary changes in the cerebellum of rats after middle cerebral artery occlusion

PubMed Central

Yang, Yunjun; Gao, Lingyun; Fu, Jun; Zhang, Jun; Li, Yuxin; Yin, Bo; Chen, Weijian; Geng, Daoying

2013-01-01

Supratentorial cerebral infarction can cause functional inhibition of remote regions such as the cerebellum, which may be relevant to diaschisis. This phenomenon is often analyzed using positron emission tomography and single photon emission CT. However, these methods are expensive and radioactive. Thus, the present study quantified the changes of infarction core and remote regions after unilateral middle cerebral artery occlusion using apparent diffusion coefficient values. Diffusion-weighted imaging showed that the area of infarction core gradually increased to involve the cerebral cortex with increasing infarction time. Diffusion weighted imaging signals were initially increased and then stabilized by 24 hours. With increasing infarction time, the apparent diffusion coefficient value in the infarction core and remote bilateral cerebellum both gradually decreased, and then slightly increased 3–24 hours after infarction. Apparent diffusion coefficient values at remote regions (cerebellum) varied along with the change of supratentorial infarction core, suggesting that the phenomenon of diaschisis existed at the remote regions. Thus, apparent diffusion coefficient values and diffusion weighted imaging can be used to detect early diaschisis. PMID:25206615

Accelerometer profiles of physical activity and inactivity in normal weight, overweight, and obese U.S. men and women.

PubMed

Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Brashear, Meghan M; Johnson, William D; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

2010-08-03

The 2005-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) is used to describe an accelerometer-derived physical activity/inactivity profile in normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2), overweight (25 /= 30 kg/m2) U.S. adults. We computed physical activity volume indicators (activity counts/day, uncensored and censored steps/day), rate indicators (e.g., steps/minute), time indicators (employing NHANES activity counts/minute cut points to infer time in non-wear, sedentary, low, light, moderate, and vigorous intensities), the number of breaks in sedentary time (occasions when activity counts rose from < 100 activity/counts in one minute to >/= 100 activity counts in the subsequent minute), achievement of public health guidelines, and classification by step-defined physical activity levels. Data were examined for evidence of consistent and significant gradients across BMI-defined categories. In 2005-2006, U.S adults averaged 6,564 +/- SE 107 censored steps/day, and after considering non-wear time, they spent approximately 56.8% of the rest of the waking day in sedentary time, 23.7% in low intensity, 16.7% in light intensity, 2.6% in moderate intensity, and 0.2% in vigorous intensity. Overall, approximately 3.2% of U.S. adults achieved public health guidelines. The normal weight category took 7,190 +/- SE 157 steps/day, and spent 25.7 +/- 0.9 minutes/day in moderate intensity and 7.3 +/- 0.4 minutes/day in vigorous intensity physical activity. The corresponding numbers for the overweight category were 6,879 +/- 140 steps/day, 25.3 +/- 0.9 minutes/day, and 5.3 +/- 0.5 minutes/day and for the obese category 5,784 +/- 124 steps/day, 17.3 +/- 0.7 minutes/day and 3.2 +/- 0.4 minutes/day. Across BMI categories, increasing gradients and significant trends were apparent in males for sedentary time and decreasing gradients and significant trends were evident in time spent in light intensity, moderate intensity, and vigorous intensity. For females, there were only consistent gradients and significant trends apparent for decreasing amounts of time spent in moderate and vigorous intensity. Simple indicators of physical activity volume (i.e., steps/day) and time in light, moderate or vigorous intensity physical activity differ across BMI categories for both sexes, suggesting that these should continue to be targets for surveillance.

Transmission of vibration through glove materials: effects of contact force.

PubMed

Md Rezali, Khairil Anas; Griffin, Michael J

2018-04-26

This study investigated effects of applied force on the apparent mass of the hand, the dynamic stiffness of glove materials and the transmission of vibration through gloves to the hand. For 10 subjects, 3 glove materials and 3 contact forces, apparent masses and glove transmissibilities were measured at the palm and at a finger at frequencies in the range 5-300 Hz. The dynamic stiffnesses of the materials were also measured. With increasing force, the dynamic stiffnesses of the materials increased, the apparent mass at the palm increased at frequencies greater than the resonance and the apparent mass at the finger increased at low frequencies. The effects of force on transmissibilities therefore differed between materials and depended on vibration frequency, but changes in apparent mass and dynamic stiffness had predictable effects on material transmissibility. Depending on the glove material, the transmission of vibration through a glove can be increased or decreased when increasing the applied force. Practitioner summary: Increasing the contact force (i.e. push force or grip force) can increase or decrease the transmission of vibration through a glove. The vibration transmissibilities of gloves should be assessed with a range of contact forces to understand their likely influence on the exposure of the hand and fingers to vibration.

Millisecond Pulsar Observation at CRL

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-11-01

32nd Annual Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI) Meeting MILLISECOND PULSAR OBSERVATION AT CRL Y. Hanado, Y . Shibuya, M. Hosokawa, M. Sekido...status of millisecond pulsar timing observation at CRL.. Weekly observation of PSR1937+21 using the 34-m antenna at Kashima Space Research Center has...been on going since November 1997. Recently we eliminated systematic trends that were apparent in the data, and estimated the pulsar parameters of

On volatile element trends in gas-rich meteorites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bart, G.; Lipschutz, M. E.

1979-01-01

Ten volatile elements (and non-volatile Co) in co-existing light and dark portions of 5 gas-rich chondrites were studied. Patterns of distinct but non-uniform enrichment by dark admixing material are revealed. The dark admixing material is enriched in Cs; Bi and Tl covary in it. It is compositionally unique from known types of primitive materials and is apparently not derived by secondary processes from such materials.

Simulations on the influence of myelin water in diffusion-weighted imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harkins, K. D.; Does, M. D.

2016-07-01

While myelinated axons present an important barrier to water diffusion, many models used to interpret DWI signal neglect other potential influences of myelin. In this work, Monte Carlo simulations were used to test the sensitivity of DWI results to the diffusive properties of water within myelin. Within these simulations, the apparent diffusion coefficient (D app) varied slowly over several orders of magnitude of the coefficient of myelin water diffusion (D m), but exhibited important differences compared to D app values simulated that neglect D m (=0). Compared to D app, the apparent diffusion kurtosis (K app) was generally more sensitive to D m. Simulations also tested the sensitivity of D app and K app to the amount of myelin present. Unique variations in D app and K app caused by differences in the myelin volume fraction were diminished when myelin water diffusion was included. Also, expected trends in D app and K app with experimental echo time were reduced or inverted when accounting for myelin water diffusion, and these reduced/inverted trends were seen experimentally in ex vivo rat brain DWI experiments. In general, myelin water has the potential to subtly influence DWI results and bias models of DWI that neglect these components of white matter.

Simulations on the influence of myelin water in diffusion-weighted imaging.

PubMed

Harkins, K D; Does, M D

2016-07-07

While myelinated axons present an important barrier to water diffusion, many models used to interpret DWI signal neglect other potential influences of myelin. In this work, Monte Carlo simulations were used to test the sensitivity of DWI results to the diffusive properties of water within myelin. Within these simulations, the apparent diffusion coefficient (D app) varied slowly over several orders of magnitude of the coefficient of myelin water diffusion (D m), but exhibited important differences compared to D app values simulated that neglect D m (=0). Compared to D app, the apparent diffusion kurtosis (K app) was generally more sensitive to D m. Simulations also tested the sensitivity of D app and K app to the amount of myelin present. Unique variations in D app and K app caused by differences in the myelin volume fraction were diminished when myelin water diffusion was included. Also, expected trends in D app and K app with experimental echo time were reduced or inverted when accounting for myelin water diffusion, and these reduced/inverted trends were seen experimentally in ex vivo rat brain DWI experiments. In general, myelin water has the potential to subtly influence DWI results and bias models of DWI that neglect these components of white matter.

(Re)engineering Earth System Models to Expose Greater Concurrency for Ultrascale Computing: Practice, Experience, and Musings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, R. T.

2014-12-01

As the high performance computing (HPC) community pushes towards the exascale horizon, the importance and prevalence of fine-grained parallelism in new computer architectures is increasing. This is perhaps most apparent in the proliferation of so-called "accelerators" such as the Intel Xeon Phi or NVIDIA GPGPUs, but the trend also holds for CPUs, where serial performance has grown slowly and effective use of hardware threads and vector units are becoming increasingly important to realizing high performance. This has significant implications for weather, climate, and Earth system modeling codes, many of which display impressive scalability across MPI ranks but take relatively little advantage of threading and vector processing. In addition to increasing parallelism, next generation codes will also need to address increasingly deep hierarchies for data movement: NUMA/cache levels, on node vs. off node, local vs. wide neighborhoods on the interconnect, and even in the I/O system. We will discuss some approaches (grounded in experiences with the Intel Xeon Phi architecture) for restructuring Earth science codes to maximize concurrency across multiple levels (vectors, threads, MPI ranks), and also discuss some novel approaches for minimizing expensive data movement/communication.

Plant responses to elevated atmospheric CO/sub 2/ with emphasis on belowground processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Norby, R.J.; Luxmoore, R.J.; O'Neill, E.G.

1984-12-01

Consideration of the interrelationships between carbon, water, and nutrient pathways in soil-plant systems has led to the hypothesis that stimulation of root and rhizosphere processes by elevated levels of CO/sub 2/ will increase nutrient availability and lead to an increase in plant growth. Several experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of CO/sub 2/ concentration on carbon allocation, root exudation, nitrogen utilization, and microbial responses, as well as overall plant growth and nutrient utilization. Increases in the growth of yellow-poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.) seedlings in response to elevated CO/sub 2/ were demonstrated even when the plants were under apparent nutrientmore » limitation in a forest soil. The proportion of photosynthetically fixed carbon that was allocated to the roots of yellow-poplar and hazel alder (Alnus serrulata (Ait.) Willd.) seedlings was greater at 700 ppM CO/sub 2/ than at ambient CO/sub 2/. Exudation of carbon from yellow-poplar roots also tended to be higher in elevated CO/sub 2/. Responses of rhizosphere microbial populations to elevated CO/sub 2/ were inconsistent, but there was a trend toward relatively fewer ammonium oxidizers, nitrite oxidizers, and phosphate solubilizers in the rhizosphere population of yellow-poplar seedlings grown in 700 ppM CO/sub 2/ compared to that of seedlings grown in ambient CO/sub 2/. Other observed trends included increased nodulation and nitrogenase activity and decreased nitrate reductase activity in hazel alder seedlings in elevated CO/sub 2/. Net uptake of some essential plant nutrients, aluminum, and other trace metals by Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana Mill.) increased with increasing CO/sub 2/ concentration. There was less leaching of some nutrients from soil-plant systems with Virginia pine and yellow-poplar seedlings but increased leaching of zinc. 123 references, 16 figures, 17 tables.« less

Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.

2005-01-01

Sea ice covers vast areas of the polar oceans, with ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere ranging from approximately 7 x 10(exp 6) sq km in September to approximately 15 x 10(exp 6) sq km in March and ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere ranging from approximately 3 x 10(exp 6) sq km in February to approximately 18 x 10(exp 6) sq km in September. These ice covers have major impacts on the atmosphere, oceans, and ecosystems of the polar regions, and so as changes occur in them there are potential widespread consequences. Satellite data reveal considerable interannual variability in both polar sea ice covers, and many studies suggest possible connections between the ice and various oscillations within the climate system, such as the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Antarctic Oscillation, or Southern Annular Mode. Nonetheless, statistically significant long-term trends are also apparent, including overall trends of decreased ice coverage in the Arctic and increased ice coverage in the Antarctic from late 1978 through the end of 2003, with the Antarctic ice increases following marked decreases in the Antarctic ice during the 1970s. For a detailed picture of the seasonally varying ice cover at the start of the 21st century, this chapter includes ice concentration maps for each month of 2001 for both the Arctic and the Antarctic, as well as an overview of what the satellite record has revealed about the two polar ice covers from the 1970s through 2003.

Changes in access to health care in China, 1989-1997.

PubMed

Akin, John S; Dow, William H; Lance, Peter M; Loh, Chung-Ping A

2005-03-01

The post-1979 period in China has seen the implementation of reforms that dismantled much of the Maoist era social welfare system and permitted a significant reallocation of society's resources. The result has been rapid but uneven economic development that has profoundly altered the environment within which consumers make health investment decisions. Many studies report significant and apparently non-random reductions in health care utilization during this period. Scholars have tended to focus on the loss of insurance coverage and the growth of fees for services in explaining such reductions. An alternative explanation is growing inequality in access to care. This possibility has not received much research attention. As a result, our understanding of the patterns of changes in health care access, and of the types of populations that have been most adversely affected, has been rather limited. This research examines the distribution of the changes in several indicators of access to health care across communities during the period 1989 to 1997. We find evidence of relatively uneven changes to these indicators. Money charges for routine services increased consistently, though this trend was less pronounced in lower-income communities. Most communities experienced reductions in travel distance to clinics but increases in distance to hospitals. There were major improvements to the quality of care in wealthier rural areas, but not in poorer villages. Wealthier villages experienced less improvement in waiting time and drug availability. These trends appear to be closely associated with changing economic circumstances during the reform era.

In vitro test of external Qigong

PubMed Central

Yount, Garret; Solfvin, Jerry; Moore, Dan; Schlitz, Marilyn; Reading, Melissa; Aldape, Ken; Qian, Yifang

2004-01-01

Background Practitioners of the alternative medical practice 'external Qigong' generally claim the ability to emit or direct "healing energy" to treat patients. We investigated the ability of experienced Qigong practitioners to enhance the healthy growth of cultured human cells in a series of studies, each following a rigorously designed protocol with randomization, blinding and controls for variability. Methods Qigong practitioners directed healing intentionality toward normal brain cell cultures in a basic science laboratory. Qigong treatments were delivered for 20 minutes from a minimum distance of 10 centimeters. Cell proliferation was measured by a standard colony-forming efficiency (CFE) assay and a CFE ratio (CFE for treated samples/CFE for sham samples) was the dependent measure for each experiment. Results During a pilot study (8 experiments), a trend of increased cell proliferation in Qigong-treated samples (CFE Qigong/sham ratios > 1.0) was observed (P = 0.162). In a formal study (28 experiments), a similar trend was observed, with Qigong-treated samples showing on average more colony formation than sham samples (P = 0.036). In a replication study (60 experiments), no significant difference between Qigong-treated samples and sham samples was observed (P = 0.465). Conclusion We observed an apparent increase in the proliferation of cultured cells following external Qigong treatment by practitioners under strictly controlled conditions, but we did not observe this effect in a replication study. These results suggest the need for more controlled and thorough investigation of external Qigong before scientific validation is claimed. PMID:15102336

The trend and features of physician workforce supply in China: after national medical licensing system reform.

PubMed

Tang, Chengxiang; Tang, Daisheng

2018-04-03

The annual number of newly licensed physicians is an important indicator of medical workforce supply, which can accurately reflect an inflow into the health care market over a period. In order to both regulate medical professions and improve the quality of health care services, China established its medical licensing system from the point of the implementation of 'Law on Practising Doctors' in 1999. The objective of this study is to depict the trend and structure of newly licensed physicians thereafter. This study analyses a unique census data set that provides the headcount of newly licensed physicians from 2005 to 2015 in China. We also review a short history of medical licensing system reform in China since the 1990s. The annual number of first-time licensed physicians in China increased from 159 489 in 2005 to 221 639 in 2015. Up to 2015, over half of newly licensed physicians had not received a medical education equivalent to a bachelor degree or higher. Around 51% of China's newly licensed physicians were female in 2005, while the same ratio for females in 2015 was 56%. This article first provides an exploratory analysis of physician inflow into health care market in China using physician licensing data. The medical licensing system in China allows entering physicians with a broad range of educational levels. Moreover, the feminisation of the physician supply in China has become increasingly apparent and its impacts on health care provision still require more rigorous examination.

Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs

PubMed Central

Gascuel, Didier; Colléter, Mathieu; Palomares, Maria L. D.; Du Pontavice, Hubert; Pauly, Daniel; Cheung, William W. L.

2017-01-01

The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950–2010 time-periods. Global trends were identified and cluster analyses were used to characterize the variability of trends between ecosystems. Results showed that the most common pattern over the study period is a global decrease in TCI, while the ECI indicator tends to increase. Thus, changes in species assemblages would induce faster and apparently more efficient biomass transfers in marine food webs. Results also suggested that the main driver of change over that period had been the large increase in fishing pressure. The largest changes occurred in ecosystems where ‘fishing down the marine food web’ are most intensive. PMID:28800358

Enhancing atmospheric mercury research in China to improve the current understanding of the global mercury cycle: the need for urgent and closely coordinated efforts.

PubMed

Ci, Zhijia; Zhang, Xiaoshan; Wang, Zhangwei

2012-06-05

The current understanding of the global mercury (Hg) cycle remains uncertain because Hg behavior in the environment is very complicated. The special property of Hg causes the atmosphere to be the most important medium for worldwide dispersion and transformation. The source and fate of atmospheric Hg and its interaction with the surface environment are the essential topics in the global Hg cycle. Recent declining measurement trends of Hg in the atmosphere are in apparent conflict with the increasing trends in global anthropogenic Hg emissions. As the single largest country contributor of anthropogenic Hg emission, China's role in the global Hg cycle will become more and more important in the context of the decreasing man-made Hg emission from developed regions. However, much less Hg information in China is available. As a global pollutant which undergoes long-range transport and is persistence in the environment, increasing Hg knowledge in China could not only promote the Hg regulation in this country but also improve the understanding of the fundamental of the global Hg cycle and further push the abatement of this toxin on a global scale. Then the atmospheric Hg research in China may be a breakthrough for improving the current understanding of the global Hg cycle. However, due to the complex behavior of Hg in the atmosphere, a deeper understanding of the atmospheric Hg cycle in China needs greater cooperation across fields.

HIV/AIDS: global trends, global funds and delivery bottlenecks

PubMed Central

Coovadia, Hoosen M; Hadingham, Jacqui

2005-01-01

Globalisation affects all facets of human life, including health and well being. The HIV/AIDS epidemic has highlighted the global nature of human health and welfare and globalisation has given rise to a trend toward finding common solutions to global health challenges. Numerous international funds have been set up in recent times to address global health challenges such as HIV. However, despite increasingly large amounts of funding for health initiatives being made available to poorer regions of the world, HIV infection rates and prevalence continue to increase world wide. As a result, the AIDS epidemic is expanding and intensifying globally. Worst affected are undoubtedly the poorer regions of the world as combinations of poverty, disease, famine, political and economic instability and weak health infrastructure exacerbate the severe and far-reaching impacts of the epidemic. One of the major reasons for the apparent ineffectiveness of global interventions is historical weaknesses in the health systems of underdeveloped countries, which contribute to bottlenecks in the distribution and utilisation of funds. Strengthening these health systems, although a vital component in addressing the global epidemic, must however be accompanied by mitigation of other determinants as well. These are intrinsically complex and include social and environmental factors, sexual behaviour, issues of human rights and biological factors, all of which contribute to HIV transmission, progression and mortality. An equally important factor is ensuring an equitable balance between prevention and treatment programmes in order to holistically address the challenges presented by the epidemic. PMID:16060961

A preliminary assessment of mouflon abundance at the Kahuku Unit of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steven C.; Kawakami, Ben; Okita, David; Medeiros, Keola

2006-01-01

Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) recently acquired the 115,653 acre Kahuku Ranch unit adjacent to the existing Mauna Loa section of HAVO. Kahuku contains numerous exceptional natural resources including many federally listed threatened and endangered species. An apparently large and growing population of alien mouflon sheep (Ovis gmelini musimon), however, threatens sensitive native plants and forest bird habitats. Population composition and abundance estimates were urgently needed to determine the magnitude of resources required to manage this species and justify costs. We surveyed 32,433 acres from helicopter over 2 days in November 2004 during breeding to determine the abundance and population structure. We estimated that there were more than 2,586 ? 705 (90% CI) mouflon at Kahuku. Overall, group sizes averaged 7.8 and the sex ratio was 1:2.4 rams:ewes, but approximately 44% of the population was concentrated in forested areas near ranching operations where group sizes averaged >15 and the sex ratio was 1:3.9 rams:ewes. The remaining 56% of the population occurred widely dispersed in subalpine shrubland and barren lava flows. Abundance estimates are likely to be conservative because they were not adjusted for detection probability. Ground-based surveys of lambs suggest upper biological limit to annual population increase of 33.1% under existing environmental conditions. Historical information used to calculate population trends indicated the apparent rate of population increase to be 21.1%. In the absence of removals, the population increment for 2004-2005, would be more than 546-856, and the population doubling time with these growth rates is 3-4 years.

Recent Trends in the Ebro River Basin: Is It All "Just" Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lutz, Stefanie; Merz, Ralf

2016-04-01

Water resources are under pressure from a variety of stressors such as industry, agriculture, water abstraction or pollution. Changing climate can potentially enhance the impact of these stressors, especially under water scarcity conditions. The aim of the GLOBAQUA project ("Managing the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity") is, therefore, to analyze the combined effect of multiple stressors in the context of increasing water scarcity. As part of the GLOBAQUA project, this study examines recent trends in climate, water quantity and quality parameters in the Ebro River Basin in Northern Spain to identify stressors and determine their joint impact on water resources. Mann-Kendall trend analyses of temperature, precipitation, streamflow, groundwater level, streamwater and groundwater quality data (spanning between 15 and 40 years) were performed. Moreover, anthropogenic pressures such as land use and alteration of natural flow by reservoirs were considered. Climate data indicate increasing temperatures in the Ebro River Basin especially in summer and autumn, and decreasing precipitation particularly in summer. In contrast, precipitation mostly shows upwards trends in autumn, but these are counterbalanced by greater evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. Overall, this results in annual and seasonal streamflow decreases at the majority of gauging stations. Declining trends in streamflow are most pronounced during summer and are also observed in subbasins without reservoirs. Diminishing water resources become also apparent in generally decreasing groundwater levels in the Ebro River Basin. This decrease is most pronounced in areas where groundwater serves as main origin for irrigation water, which demonstrates how land use acts as a local rather than regional driver of change. Increasing air temperatures correlate with increasing water temperatures over the past 30 years, which indicates the effect of changing climate on water quality. However, the correlation between air and water temperatures decreases in the presence of reservoirs upstream of the sampling points. Reservoirs can thus alter the thermal regime of rivers, which might, in turn, pose a threat to aquatic ecosystems. Apart from the water demand for irrigation, agriculture is a main cause of nitrate pollution of both surface water and groundwater in the Ebro River Basin. Nitrate concentrations in streamwater have mostly decreased for the last 15 years, which is consistent with less fertilizer consumption in Spain since the early 2000s. However, nitrate concentrations remain high in many groundwater wells. Overall, the analysis of multiple pressures on water resources suggests that recent changes in the Ebro River Basin are driven by a variety of anthropogenic influences including changing climate. This emphasizes the importance of adapted land use and water resources management to secure sufficient quantity and quality of water resources in this large river basin.

Use, trends, and impacts of nurse overtime in New York hospitals, 1995--2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berney, Barbara L.

Over the last several years, nurses and their advocates have expressed concern about heavy use of overtime (OT) in hospitals and claimed that it undermines the quality of nursing care. Some hospital managers view OT as an important staffing and scheduling tool. This study examines trends in the use of nurse overtime and its effects on several nurse-sensitive patient outcomes. Previous studies have demonstrated a relationship between several patient outcomes and nurse staffing levels, but little is known about the impact of nurse overtime on patient outcomes. Using staffing and discharge data covering 1995 to 2000 from 160 acute general hospitals in New York State, this study examines hospital characteristics that are associated with the use of OT. These characteristics include size, location, RN unionization, hospital ownership and teaching status. The study examines trends in the use of OT. Finally, it uses multivariate regression to analyze the relationship between OT and the rates of six nurse-sensitive patient outcomes and mortality. Significant differences were observed in the use of OT by hospital ownership and by union status. Government hospitals used less OT than non-government hospitals. Non-union hospitals used slightly less OT than hospitals with unionized nurses. As total RN hours and straight (non-OT) hours per acute inpatient day increased, OT decreased. OT use as a percent of total inpatient RN hours increased significantly over the study period from 3.9% to 5.5%. Trends varied by hospital characteristic. This dissertation finds little evidence for an association between nurse OT and patient outcomes. One reason may be that the administrative data used track OT use and adverse events for whole years. Since OT use is episodic, data that examine the occurrence of adverse events during periods of heavy nurse overtime may be more sensitive to the impact of OT. That hospitals vary dramatically in their OT use and that some categories of hospitals (e.g. government-owned) use very little OT---without apparent effect on patient outcomes---suggests that hospital management can find substitutes for OT to meet fluctuating staffing needs.

Streamflow and water-quality trends of the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, northern and central New Mexico, water years 1985 to 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langman, Jeff B.; Nolan, Emma O.

2005-01-01

The City of Albuquerque plans to divert San Juan-Chama Project water from the Rio Grande for potable water use. This report examines streamflow and water-quality trends in the Rio Chama and the Rio Grande for water years 1985 to 2002 following the implementation of reservoir storage agreements in northern and central New Mexico. Streamflow/water-quality stations used for this study include the Rio Grande stations of Taos, Otowi, San Felipe, and Albuquerque and the Rio Chama station of Chamita. Water years 1985 to 2002 were a period of larger than average precipitation and streamflow compared to the stations. historical averages. Annual precipitation and streamflow trended downward during the study period because of a drought during 1999 to 2002. Streamflow in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande was divided into three distinct seasonal periods that corresponded to natural and anthropogenic influences: fall/winter baseflow (November through February), snowmelt runoff (March through June), and the irrigation/monsoon (July through October) seasons. A calcium bicarbonate water type was evident at all study area stations on the Rio Chama and Rio Grande. Specific conductance increased downstream, but alkalinity and pH did not substantially change in the downstream direction. Nearly all nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations were less than 1 milligram per liter for all stations. Median trace-element concentrations and maximum radionuclide concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Anthropogenic compounds were infrequently detected in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, and concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Water quality in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande varied spatially and temporally during water years 1985 to 2002. Specific conductance increased downstream in the Rio Grande during the fall/winter baseflow and snowmelt runoff seasons but was similar at the Taos, Otowi, and San Felipe stations during the irrigation/monsoon season. This similarity was a result of the release of stored water from Abiquiu Reservoir and Cochiti Lake, which masked the natural influences that increased specific conductance in the downstream direction during the other seasons. During all seasons, pH decreased and major ion concentrations remained stable at the Albuquerque station compared with the San Felipe station, but no single influence could be identified that caused these conditions. Manganese and uranium concentrations at the Otowi and San Felipe stations were largest during the fall/winter baseflow and smallest during the snowmelt runoff, indicating that ground-water inflows likely influenced these concentrations. Water-quality temporal trends were evaluated for selected constituents during the study period and during the individual seasons. Downward trends in major ion concentrations were similar in magnitude at the Taos and Otowi stations, indicating that an upstream influence and (or) the downward trend in annual precipitation was the main reason(s) for these trends. The stations most affected by reservoirs, Chamita and San Felipe, were the only stations at which downward trends in major ions were apparent for flow-adjusted concentrations but not for seasonally correlated low-adjusted concentrations, which indicates fewer seasonal differences at these stations due to reservoir operations.

A review of the compositional variation of amphiboles in alkaline plutonic complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Roger H.

1990-12-01

Compositional data for amphiboles occurring in alkaline plutonic complexes are reviewed and a standard procedure for plotting these data in an isometric prism is proposed. The main compositional trend found in both oversaturated and undersaturated complexes of either miascitic or peralkaline affinity is referred to as the primary magmatic trend. Amphiboles range in composition from magnesian hastingsitic hornblende and ferro-edenitic hornblende through katophorite to ferro-richterite and arfvedsonite. Individual complexes differ with respect to the amphibole {Mg}/{Fe} and {Si}/{Al} ratio and the extent of Na-enrichment. Extensive or limited ranges in the composition of amphiboles may occur in a given complex. A subtrend found only in oversaturated complexes is from ferro-edenitic hornblende to ferro-actinolite. This trend termed the ferro-actinolitic subtrend is found only in low temperature non-peralkaline residua. Some aluminous nepheline syenites and associated alkali gabbros contain amphiboles which range in composition from kaersutite through ferroan pargasitic hornblende to hastingsite. This trend termed the primary miascitic magmatic trend is is one of decreasing {Mg}/{Fe}, at essentially constant {Si}/{Al} and Ca content. Na-enrichment does not occur. Amphiboles formed by reactions of preexisting phases with hydrothermal or deuteric fluids are termed the late stage reaction assemblage. Amphibole compositional trends from calcic through sodic-calcic to sodic amphiboles reflect decreasing temperature and oxygen fugacity at or below the QFM oxygen buffer. The compositional trends are of use in determining petrogenetic relationships between apparently consanguineous syenites.

Research trends in human osteology: a content analysis of papers published in the American Journal of Physical Anthropology.

PubMed

Stojanowski, Christopher M; Buikstra, Jane E

2005-09-01

This paper explores recent research trends in human osteology, based on articles published in the American Journal of Physical Anthropology (AJPA) during two 5-year intervals: 1980--1984 and 1996--2000. Topical "visibility" is measured in terms of article counts; "impact" is estimated through citation indices. Our results indicate that human osteologists continue to publish a range of methodological, analytical, and descriptive research papers that address a broad array of subjects. Analytical articles are cited more frequently than descriptive articles and thus have higher impact, reflecting the discipline's continued commitment to problem-oriented research. Differences in publication patterns exist between scholars during early and later stages of their careers. Articles published by students and Ph.D.s within 2 years of their doctoral degree are more frequently descriptive than analytical, when compared to people with longer career histories. Topics such as pathology, forensic anthropology, and biodistance modeling remain highly visible, while articles on the dentition have waned. An increase in functional research directed toward the postcranial skeleton is also reflected in our data. While continued visibility for morphological investigations is apparent, the impact of recently developed applications in bone chemistry and molecular anthropology is amply documented in our data, particularly during the more recent survey years. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Lateglacial landscape and vegetation change and the younger dryas climatic oscillation in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGlone, M. S.

Lateglacial sequences in New Zealand show progressive afforestation and landscape stabilization reflecting a warming climate. Between 14,500 BP and 11,500 BP, afforestation and landscape stability was achieved throughout most of the North Island and the northwest sector of the South Island. In the South Island, scrub and tree ferns were replacing previous grasslands in the east by 11,000 BP, and broadleaved forest was spreading in the west. No significant reversals of these trends occurred and afforestation was complete by 9500 BP. Glaciers of the high central part of the Southern Alps made a series of advances between 14,000 and 9000 BP Most of these advances are poorly dated but two moraines are of Younger Dryas age. Glacial advances in the face of the general Lateglacial warming trend may have been driven by stronger westerly winds increasing snowfall on high altitude névés, and by reduced ablation as a consequence of moist, cloudy, low insolation summers. The cause of the northern hemisphere Younger Dryas cooling is still uncertain, and expected Southern Hemisphere responses may differ according to the mechanism proposed for the cooling. Poor chronological resolution and apparent conflict between the various types of evidence for climatic change make detection of an unambiguous Younger Dryas in New Zealand problematical.

Changes in wetland sediment elevation following major storms: implications for estimating trends in relative sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cahoon, D.R.

2003-01-01

Hurricanes can be important agents of geomorphic change in coastal marshes and mangrove forests. Hurricanes can cause large-scale redistribution of sediments within the coastal environment resulting in sedimentation, erosion, disruption of vegetated substrates, or some combination of these processes in coastal wetlands. It has been proposed that such sediment pulsing events are important at maintaining wetland sediment elevations in sediment-poor settings with high rates of relative sea-level rise, such as the Mississippi River Delta. But do these pulsing events result in a net gain in sediment elevation even when substantial amounts of sediment are deposited? Clearly sediment erosion and scour would result in a loss of elevation. But will a substantial sediment deposit on poorly consolidated sediments always result in a net gain in elevation? If the wetland vegetation is killed by wind, tidal surge, or the introduction of saline water, will there be a collapse of sediment elevation in the absence of root production and ongoing decomposition of root matter? During the past decade several wetlands where my colleagues and I have monitored sedimentation and elevation change have been struck by one to several hurricanes. This paper describes the range of sediment elevation responses to hurricane strikes, the suggested mechanisms driving those responses, the implications for estimating long-term trends in relative sea-level rise, and future research needs for improving our understanding of the role that major storms play in wetland sediment elevation dynamics. For many wetlands the change in sediment elevation was directly proportional to the amount of sediment deposited by the storm. But surprisingly, there was a loss of elevation in some wetlands with substantial sediment deposits. In these wetlands, the impact of the storm was either direct (sedimentation and compaction) or indirect (vegetation death), and the effect on sediment elevation was either permanent or temporary. For example, 2 cm of sediment deposited by Hurricane Andrew on a healthy salt marsh in south Louisiana had a direct and positive effect on sediment elevation. But in a deteriorated salt marsh a 3 cm thick sediment deposit was associated with a permanent loss in elevation (we have monitored this site for 10 years). The apparent mechanism driving elevation loss was compaction of the weakened substrate by the weight of the sediment deposit, the storm surge waters, or both. Clearly, storm-related sediment pulses are not going to save this marsh from becoming submerged by rising sea level. A temporary loss in elevation, as much as 2 cm, was observed in a North Carolina salt marsh with a highly organic substrate after each of 3 successive hurricanes even when sediment was deposited. The loss in elevation was apparently related to degassing of the chronically flooded substrate while the rebound in elevation was apparently related to a temporary drawdown of marsh water levels. Interestingly, sediment elevation increased after Hurricane Dennis in 1999, although the increase was less than the thickness of the sediment deposit. Further research is required to determine the mechanisms driving storm-related elevation change (i.e., compaction and expansion) in this marsh. There were two marshes where the gain in sediment elevation was greater than the thickness of the sediment deposit, but the effect was short-lived. In a high salt marsh in southern California, we hypothesize that the temporary spike in elevation was related to the flushing of salts from the hypersaline soils, which enhanced root growth that led to an increase in elevation. In a marsh with a highly organic substrate in north Florida, temporary increases in elevation (as much as 2 cm) greater than the thickness of the sediment deposit were apparently related to groundwater fluxes, which may have been influenced by enhanced runoff from storm rainfall. Lastly, Hurricane Mitch

Parallel gradualistic evolution of Ordovician trilobites.

PubMed

Sheldon, P R

There are very few high-resolution studies of the fossil record from which to assess the relative frequency of gradualistic and punctuated evolution. Here I report some of the first detailed evidence of phyletic gradualism in benthic macroinvertebrates, based on a study of approximately 15,000 trilobites from central Wales. Over a period of about three million years, as many as eight lineages underwent a net increase in the number of pygidial ribs, a species-diagnostic character. The end members of most lineages have previously been assigned to different species and, in one case, to different genera. In view of intermediate morphologies and temporary trend reversals, however, practical taxonomic subdivision of each lineage proved impossible. The apparent success of earlier Linnean nomenclature (with its implications of discrete species) could easily have been misinterpreted as evidence of punctuation and stasis, and it is probable that detection of many other gradualistic patterns has been hindered by ready application of binominal taxonomy to fossils.

Tempo and mode in human evolution.

PubMed Central

McHenry, H M

1994-01-01

The quickening pace of paleontological discovery is matched by rapid developments in geochronology. These new data show that the pattern of morphological change in the hominid lineage was mosaic. Adaptations essential to bipedalism appeared early, but some locomotor features changed much later. Relative to the highly derived postcrania of the earliest hominids, the craniodental complex was quite primitive (i.e., like the reconstructed last common ancestor with the African great apes). The pattern of craniodental change among successively younger species of Hominidae implies extensive parallel evolution between at least two lineages in features related to mastication. Relative brain size increased slightly among successively younger species of Australopithecus, expanded significantly with the appearance of Homo, but within early Homo remained at about half the size of Homo sapiens for almost a million years. Many apparent trends in human evolution may actually be due to the accumulation of relatively rapid shifts in successive species. PMID:8041697

Some predictions of the attached eddy model for a high Reynolds number boundary layer.

PubMed

Nickels, T B; Marusic, I; Hafez, S; Hutchins, N; Chong, M S

2007-03-15

Many flows of practical interest occur at high Reynolds number, at which the flow in most of the boundary layer is turbulent, showing apparently random fluctuations in velocity across a wide range of scales. The range of scales over which these fluctuations occur increases with the Reynolds number and hence high Reynolds number flows are difficult to compute or predict. In this paper, we discuss the structure of these flows and describe a physical model, based on the attached eddy hypothesis, which makes predictions for the statistical properties of these flows and their variation with Reynolds number. The predictions are shown to compare well with the results from recent experiments in a new purpose-built high Reynolds number facility. The model is also shown to provide a clear physical explanation for the trends in the data. The limits of applicability of the model are also discussed.

Heat Capacity Mapping Mission (HCMM): Interpretation of imagery over Canada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cihlar, J. (Principal Investigator); Dixon, R. G.

1981-01-01

Visual analysis of HCMM images acquired over two sites in Canada and supporting aircraft and ground data obtained at a smaller subsite in Alberta show that nightime surface temperature distribution is primarily related to the near-surface air temperature; the effects of topography, wind, and land cover were low or indirect through air temperature. Surface cover and large altitudinal differences were important parameters influencing daytime apparent temperature values. A quantitative analysis of the relationship between the antecedent precipitation index and the satellite thermal IR measurements did not yield statistically significant correlation coefficients, but the correlations had a definite temporal trend which could be related to the increasing uniformity of vegetation cover. The large pixel size (resulting in a mixture of cover types and soil/canopy temperatures measured by the satellite) and high cloud cover frequency found in images covering both Canadian sites and northern U.S. were considered the main deficiencies of the thermal satellite data.

Productivity, mortality, and population trends of wolves in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.

1977-01-01

Population parameters, mortality causes, and mechanisms of a population decline were studied in wolves (Canis lupus lycaon) from 1968 to 1976 in the Superior National Forest. The main method was aerial radio-tracking of 129 wolves and their packmates. Due to a decline in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the wolf population decreased during most of the study. Average annual productivity varied from 1.5 to 3.3 pups per litter, and annual mortality rates from 7 to 65 percent. Malnutrition and intraspecific strife accounted equally for 58 percent of the mortality; human causes accounted for the remainder. As wolf numbers began to decline, pup starvation became apparent, followed by lower pup production, and then by increased intraspecific strife. At higher densities, adult pack wolves were the most secure members of the population, but as the population declined, they became the least secure because of intraspecific strife.

Is Self-organization a Rational Expectation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luediger, Heinz

Over decades and under varying names the study of biology-inspired algorithms applied to non-living systems has been the subject of a small and somewhat exotic research community. Only the recent coincidence of a growing inability to master the design, development and operation of increasingly intertwined systems and processes, and an accelerated trend towards a naïve if not romanticizing view of nature in the sciences, has led to the adoption of biology-inspired algorithmic research by a wider range of sciences. Adaptive systems, as we apparently observe in nature, are meanwhile viewed as a promising way out of the complexity trap and, propelled by a long list of ‘self’ catchwords, complexity research has become an influential stream in the science community. This paper presents four provocative theses that cast doubt on the strategic potential of complexity research and the viability of large scale deployment of biology-inspired algorithms in an expectation driven world.

Bringing history to life: simulating landmark experiments in psychology.

PubMed

Boynton, David M; Smith, Laurence D

2006-05-01

The course in history of psychology can be challenging for students, many of whom enter it with little background in history and faced with unfamiliar names and concepts. The sheer volume of material can encourage passive memorization unless efforts are made to increase student involvement. As part of a trend toward experiential history, historians of science have begun to supplement their lectures with demonstrations of classic physics experiments as a way to bring the history of science to life. Here, the authors report on computer simulations of five landmark experiments from early experimental psychology in the areas of reaction time, span of attention, and apparent motion. The simulations are designed not only to permit hands-on replication of historically important results but also to reproduce the experimental procedures closely enough that students can gain a feel for the nature of early research and the psychological processes being studied.

Developmental and individual differences in pure numerical estimation.

PubMed

Booth, Julie L; Siegler, Robert S

2006-01-01

The authors examined developmental and individual differences in pure numerical estimation, the type of estimation that depends solely on knowledge of numbers. Children between kindergarten and 4th grade were asked to solve 4 types of numerical estimation problems: computational, numerosity, measurement, and number line. In Experiment 1, kindergartners and 1st, 2nd, and 3rd graders were presented problems involving the numbers 0-100; in Experiment 2, 2nd and 4th graders were presented problems involving the numbers 0-1,000. Parallel developmental trends, involving increasing reliance on linear representations of numbers and decreasing reliance on logarithmic ones, emerged across different types of estimation. Consistent individual differences across tasks were also apparent, and all types of estimation skill were positively related to math achievement test scores. Implications for understanding of mathematics learning in general are discussed. Copyright 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

CEO Compensation and Hospital Financial Performance

PubMed Central

Reiter, Kristin L.; Sandoval, Guillermo A.; Brown, Adalsteinn D.; Pink, George H.

2010-01-01

Growing interest in pay-for-performance and the level of CEO pay raises questions about the link between performance and compensation in the health sector. This study compares the compensation of non-profit hospital Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) in Ontario, Canada to the three longest reported and most used measures of hospital financial performance. Our sample consisted of 132 CEOs from 92 hospitals between 1999 and 2006. Unbalanced panel data were analyzed using fixed effects regression. Results suggest that CEO compensation was largely unrelated to hospital financial performance. Inflation-adjusted salaries appeared to increase over time independent of hospital performance, and hospital size was positively correlated with CEO compensation. The apparent upward trend in salary despite some declines in financial performance challenges the fundamental assumption underlying this paper, that is, financial performance is likely linked to CEO compensation in Ontario. Further research is needed to understand long-term performance related to compensation incentives. PMID:19605619

Status of the shortjaw cisco (Coregonus zenithicus) in Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoff, Michael H.; Todd, Thomas N.

2004-01-01

The shortjaw cisco (Coregonus zenithicus) was historically found in Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior, but has been extirpated in Lakes Huron and Michigan apparently as the result of commercial overharvest. During 1999-2001, we conducted an assessment of shortjaw cisco abundance in five areas, spanning the U.S. waters of Lake Superior, and compared our results with the abundance measured at those areas in 1921-1922. The shortjaw cisco was found at four of the five areas sampled, but abundances were so low that they were not significantly different from zero. In the four areas where shortjaw ciscoes were found, abundance declined significantly by 99% from the 1920s to the present. To increase populations of this once economically and ecologically important species in Lake Superior, an interagency rehabilitation effort is needed. Population monitoring is recommended to assess population trends and to evaluate success of rehabilitation efforts.

CEO compensation and hospital financial performance.

PubMed

Reiter, Kristin L; Sandoval, Guillermo A; Brown, Adalsteinn D; Pink, George H

2009-12-01

Growing interest in pay-for-performance and the level of chief executive officers' (CEOs') pay raises questions about the link between performance and compensation in the health sector. This study compares the compensation of nonprofit hospital CEOs in Ontario, Canada to the three longest reported and most used measures of hospital financial performance. Our sample consisted of 132 CEOs from 92 hospitals between 1999 and 2006. Unbalanced panel data were analyzed using fixed effects regression. Results suggest that CEO compensation was largely unrelated to hospital financial performance. Inflation-adjusted salaries appeared to increase over time independent of hospital performance, and hospital size was positively correlated with CEO compensation. The apparent upward trend in salary despite some declines in financial performance challenges the fundamental assumption underlying this article, that is, financial performance is likely linked to CEO compensation in Ontario. Further research is needed to understand long-term performance related to compensation incentives.

Reduced oxygen at high altitude limits maximum size.

PubMed

Peck, L S; Chapelle, G

2003-11-07

The trend towards large size in marine animals with latitude, and the existence of giant marine species in polar regions have long been recognized, but remained enigmatic until a recent study showed it to be an effect of increased oxygen availability in sea water of a low temperature. The effect was apparent in data from 12 sites worldwide because of variations in water oxygen content controlled by differences in temperature and salinity. Another major physical factor affecting oxygen content in aquatic environments is reduced pressure at high altitude. Suitable data from high-altitude sites are very scarce. However, an exceptionally rich crustacean collection, which remains largely undescribed, was obtained by the British 1937 expedition from Lake Titicaca on the border between Peru and Bolivia in the Andes at an altitude of 3809 m. We show that in Lake Titicaca the maximum length of amphipods is 2-4 times smaller than other low-salinity sites (Caspian Sea and Lake Baikal).

Evidence for Mojave-Sonora megashear-Systematic left-lateral offset of Neoproterozoic to Lower Jurassic strata and facies, western United States and northwestern Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, John H.

2005-01-01

Major successions as well as individual units of Neoproterozoic to Lower Jurassic strata and facies appear to be systematically offset left laterally from eastern California and western Nevada in the western United States to Sonora, Mexico. This pattern is most evident in units such as the "Johnnie oolite," a 1- to 2-m-thick oolite of the Neoproterozoic Rainstorm Member of the Johnnie Formation in the western United States and of the Clemente Formation in Sonora. The pattern is also evident in the Lower Cambrian Zabriskie Quartzite of the western United States and the correlative Proveedora Quartzite in Sonora. Matching of isopach lines of the Zabriskie Quartzite and Proveedora Quartzite suggests ???700-800 km of left-lateral offset. The offset pattern is also apparent in the distribution of distinctive lithologic types, unconformities, and fossil assemblages in other rocks ranging in age from Neoproterozoic to Early Jurassic. In the western United States, the distribution of facies in Neoproterozoic and Paleozoic strata indicates that the Cordilleran miogeocline trends north-south. A north-south trend is also suggested in Sonora, and if so is compatible with offset of the miogeocline but not with the ideas that the miogeocline wrapped around the continental margin and trends east-west in Sonora. An imperfect stratigraphic match of supposed offset segments along the megashear is apparent. Some units, such as the "Johnnie oolite" and Zabriskie-Proveedora, show almost perfect correspondence, but other units are significantly different. The differences seem to indicate that the indigenous succession of the western United States and offset segments in Mexico were not precisely side by side before offset but were separated by an area-now buried, eroded, or destroyed-that contained strata of intermediate facies. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

Long-term trends in atmospheric concentrations of α- and γ-HCH in the Arctic provide insight into the effects of legislation and climatic fluctuations on contaminant levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Su, Y.; Hung, H.

Twelve year datasets of weekly atmospheric concentrations of α- and γ-HCH were compared between the two Arctic monitoring stations of Alert, Nunavut, Canada, and Zeppelin Mountain, Svalbard, Norway. Time-series analysis was conducted with the use of dynamic harmonic regression (DHR), which provided a very good model fit, to examine both the seasonal behaviour in these isomers and the longer-term, underlying trends. Strong spatial differences were not apparent between the two sites, although subtle differences in seasonal behaviour and composition were identified. For example, the composition of γ-HCH to total HCH (α + γ) was greater at Zeppelin compared to Alert, probably reflecting this site's proximity to major use regions of lindane. Pronounced seasonality in air concentrations for γ-HCH was marked by a 'spring maximum event' (SME), confirming earlier studies. For α-HCH, the SME was much weaker and only evident at Alert, whereas at Zeppelin, seasonal fluctuations for α-HCH were marked by elevated concentrations in summer and lower concentrations during winter, with this pattern most apparent for the years after 2000. We attribute this difference in spatial and temporal patterns to the Arctic oscillation. A similar climatic pattern was not evident at either site in the γ-HCH data. Seasonally adjusted, long-term trends revealed declining concentrations at both sites for α- and γ-HCH over the entire time-series. Recent legislation affecting lindane use appear to account for this decline in γ-HCH, with little evidence of a delay or 'lag' between the banning of lindane in Europe (a main source region) or Canada, and a decline in air concentrations observed at both Arctic sites.

Five-year trends in patterns of drug use among people who use stimulants in dance contexts in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

McCambridge, Jim; Mitcheson, Luke; Winstock, Adam; Hunt, Neil

2005-08-01

To describe and evaluate trends in the use of stimulant drugs over a 5-year period using an under-studied data collection method. Repeated-measures cross-sectional survey. Annual magazine-based survey targeting people who use stimulant drugs in dance contexts. Life-time use prevalence (ever used), age of first use, current use prevalence (any use within the last month) and extent of use within the last month (number of days used) for a range of stimulant drugs. Additional measures of quantity of ecstasy used were also collected. Trends in life-time and current prevalence over time have been detected and comparisons made between different stimulant drugs. Evidence is obtained of broad stability in patterns of stimulant use in respect of age of first use and frequency of use among ongoing users. Despite an apparent reduction in the current prevalence of ecstasy use, the proportion of heavy users (usually >4 pills per session) has more than doubled between 1999 and 2003. This purposively sampled population study has yielded time trend data broadly consistent with other indicators, where they exist, and also has demonstrable potential to identify new drug trends. Further comparisons of purposive samples and randomly formed samples are needed.

EXPLORING THE CENTRAL SUB-PARSEC REGION OF THE {gamma}-RAY BRIGHT RADIO GALAXY 3C 84 WITH VLBA AT 43 GHz IN THE PERIOD OF 2002-2008

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suzuki, Kenta; Nagai, Hiroshi; Kino, Motoki

2012-02-20

Following the discovery of a new radio component right before the GeV {gamma}-ray detection since 2008 August by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope, we present a detailed study of the kinematics and light curve on the central sub-parsec scale of 3C 84 using the archival Very Long Baseline Array 43 GHz data covering the period between 2002 January and 2008 November. We find that the new component 'C3', previously reported by the observations with the Very Long Baseline Interferometer Exploration of Radio Astrometry, was already formed in 2003. The flux density of C3 increases moderately until 2008, and then itmore » becomes brighter rapidly after 2008. The radio core, C1, also shows a similar trend. The apparent speed of C3 with reference to the core C1 shows moderate acceleration from 0.10c to 0.47c between 2003 November and 2008 November, but is still sub-relativistic. We further try to fit the observed broadband spectrum by the one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model using the measured apparent speed of C3. The fit can reproduce the observed {gamma}-ray emission, but does not agree with the observed radio spectral index between 22 and 43 GHz.« less

A 14-mo zinc-supplementation trial in apparently healthy Chilean preschool children.

PubMed

Ruz, M; Castillo-Duran, C; Lara, X; Codoceo, J; Rebolledo, A; Atalah, E

1997-12-01

Apparently healthy preschool children (46 boys, 52 girls) aged 27-50 mo from low socioeconomic conditions who attended daycare centers in Santiago participated in a 14-mo long double-blind zinc supplementation trial. Unlike most previous studies, no additional inclusion criteria such as short stature or slow growth rate were considered. Subjects were pair matched according to sex and age and randomly assigned to two experimental groups: the supplemented group, which received 10 mg Zn/d, and the placebo group. Selected anthropometric, clinical, dietary, biochemical, and functional indexes were determined at the beginning of the study and after 6 and 14 mo of intervention. Actual dietary zinc intake was 66% of the recommended dietary allowance. Height gain after 14 mo was on average 0.5 cm higher in the supplemented group (P = 0.10). The response, however, was different between sexes. Boys from the supplemented group gained 0.9 cm more than those in the placebo group (P = 0.045). No effect was seen in girls. Although no significant differences were observed in the rest of the variables studied, trends (0.05 < P < 0.10) in the supplemented group compared with the placebo group for increased midarm muscle area in boys, improved response to tuberculin, and reduced rates of parasite reinfestation were noted. We conclude that in preschool children of low socioeconomic status, zinc is a limiting factor in the expression of growth potential.

Histogram analysis of apparent diffusion coefficient for monitoring early response in patients with advanced cervical cancers undergoing concurrent chemo-radiotherapy.

PubMed

Meng, Jie; Zhu, Lijing; Zhu, Li; Ge, Yun; He, Jian; Zhou, Zhengyang; Yang, Xiaofeng

2017-11-01

Background Apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram analysis has been widely used in determining tumor prognosis. Purpose To investigate the dynamic changes of ADC histogram parameters during concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CCRT) in patients with advanced cervical cancers. Material and Methods This prospective study enrolled 32 patients with advanced cervical cancers undergoing CCRT who received diffusion-weighted (DW) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) before CCRT, at the end of the second and fourth week during CCRT and one month after CCRT completion. The ADC histogram for the entire tumor volume was generated, and a series of histogram parameters was obtained. Dynamic changes of those parameters in cervical cancers were investigated as early biomarkers for treatment response. Results All histogram parameters except AUC low showed significant changes during CCRT (all P < 0.05). There were three variable trends involving different parameters. The mode, 5th, 10th, and 25th percentiles showed similar early increase rates (33.33%, 33.99%, 34.12%, and 30.49%, respectively) at the end of the second week of CCRT. The pre-CCRT 5th and 25th percentiles of the complete response (CR) group were significantly lower than those of the partial response (PR) group. Conclusion A series of ADC histogram parameters of cervical cancers changed significantly at the early stage of CCRT, indicating their potential in monitoring early tumor response to therapy.

Dynamic monitoring of water petroleum substance using HJ-1/CCD remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Miaofen; Xing, Xufeng; Zhao, Zulong; Li, Zhanqiang

2014-03-01

The experiment data used in this paper include CDOM(Chromophoric dissolved organic matter) absorption coefficient, water apparent optical properties and petroleum pollution concentration, which were obtained in May 2008, August 2009 and June 2010 respectively at Liaohe Oilfield in Panjin city, Liaoning province of China. A model between CDOM absorption coefficient and petroleum pollution concentration was developed, and then was applied to eight HJ-1CCD remote sense images obtained from 2009 to 2011, to produce multi-period temporal and spatial distribution maps of petroleum concentration in costal waters. Based on these thematic maps, the dynamic monitoring of petroleum pollution concentration distribution was done. The results showed that (1)There was a decreasing trend of petroleum concentration from costal waters to open sea, which manifest itself as an approximately zonal distribution;(2) due to low precipitation in May and June every year, the concentration of petroleum keeps in a relatively high value state; (3) in September, the concentration of petroleum decreases dramatically as pre increases, most of the area below 0.29 mg/L; (4) compared with that in the same period, the concentration of petroleum in April 2010 is apparently higher than in April 2011, and among the images in September from 2009 to 2011,the highest concentration of petroleum appears in 2010, and the lowest in 2009.

Extrusion and characterization of thermoplastic starch sheets from "macho" banana.

PubMed

Alanís-López, P; Pérez-González, J; Rendón-Villalobos, R; Jiménez-Pérez, A; Solorza-Feria, J

2011-08-01

Starch isolated from macho banana was oxidized by using 2.5% and 3.5% (w/w) of sodium hypochlorite. Native and oxidized starches with glycerol were processed using a conical twin screw extruder to obtain thermoplastic laminates or sheets, which were partially characterized. Oxidized banana starches presented higher moisture and total starch but lower ash, protein, lipids, and apparent amylose content than the native starch. Micrographs of sheets from oxidized starches showed wrinkles and cavities presumably caused by the plasticizer, but with less free glycerol and unplasticized starch granules than those from native starch. Sheets from oxidized starch showed a notorious increase in all thermal parameters (To, Tp, and ΔH), mechanical properties (tensile strength, elongation at break, and elasticity), and solubility. Banana starch X-ray diffraction patterns corresponded to a mixture of the A- and B-type polymorphs, with apparently slightly higher crystallinity in oxidized specimens than in native starch. A similar trend was observed in the corresponding sheets. Due to the pollution problem caused by the conventional plastics, there has been a renewed interest in biodegradable sheets, because they may have the potential to replace conventional packaging materials. Banana starch might be an interesting raw material to be used as edible sheet, coating or in food packaging, and preservation, because it is biodegradable, cheap, innocuous, and abundant. © 2011 Institute of Food Technologists®

Leaf δ13C variability with elevation, slope aspect, and precipitation in the southwest United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van De Water, Peter K.; Leavitt, Steven W.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2002-01-01

Leaves from several desert and woodland species, including gymnosperms and angiosperms with both C3 and C4 physiology, were analyzed to detect trends in δ13Cleaf with elevation and slope aspect along two transects in southeastern Utah and south-central New Mexico, USA. The main difference between the two transects is the steeper elevational gradient for mean annual and summer precipitation in the southern transect. For any given species, we found that isotopic differences between individual plants growing at the same site commonly equal differences measured for plants along the entire altitudinal gradient. In C3 plants, δ13Cleaf values become slightly enriched at the lowest elevations, the opposite of trends identified in more humid regions. Apparently, increasing water-use efficiency with drought stress offsets the influence of other biotic and abiotic factors that operate to decrease isotopic discrimination with elevation. For some species shared by the two transects (e.g., Pinus edulis and Cercocarpus montanus), δ13Cleaf values are dramatically depleted at sites that receive more than 550 mm mean annual precipitation, roughly the boundary (pedalfer-pedocal) at which soils commonly fill to field capacity in summer and carbonates are leached. We hypothesize that, in summer-wet areas, this may represent the boundary at which drought stress overtakes other factors in determining the sign of δ13Cleaf with elevation. The opposition of isotopic trends with elevation in arid versus humid regions cautions against standard correction for elevation in comparative studies of δ13Cleaf.

Long-term trends in the St. Marys River open water fish community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.; Fielder, David G.; Godby, Neal; Bowen, Anjanette; O'Connor, Lisa; Parrish, Josh; Greenwood, Susan; Chong, Stephen; Wright, Greg

2011-01-01

We examined trends in species composition and abundance of the St. Marys River fish community. Abundance data were available approximately once every six years from 1975 through 2006, and size and age data were available from 1995 through 2006. We also compared survey data in 2006 with results of a concurrent creel survey that year, as well as data from prior surveys spanning a 69 year time frame. The St. Marys River fish community was best characterized as a coolwater fish community with apparent little variation in species composition, and only slight variation in overall fish abundance since 1975. However, we did find recent trends in abundance among target species sought by anglers: centrarchids increased, percids appeared stable, and both northern pike Esox lucius and cisco Coregonus artedii declined. Survey results suggested that walleye (Sander vitreus) and yellow perch (Perca flavescens) experienced moderate exploitation but benefited from recent strong recruitment and faster growth. Mechanisms underlying declines of northern pike and cisco were not clear; reduced abundance could have resulted from high exploitation, variation in recruitment, or a combination of both factors. Despite these challenges, the St. Marys River fish community appears remarkably stable. We suggest that managers insure that creel surveys occur simultaneously with assessments, but periodic gill net surveys may no longer provide adequate data in support of recent, more complex management objectives. While additional surveys would add costs, more frequent data might ensure sustainability of a unique fish community that supports a large proportion of angler effort on Lake Huron.

Stratification in the lunar regolith - A preliminary view

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duke, M. B.; Nagle, J. S.

1975-01-01

Although our knowledge of lunar regolith stratification is incomplete, several categories of thick and thin strata have been identified. Relatively thick units average 2 to 3 cm in thickness, and appear surficially to be massive. On more detailed examination, these units can be uniformly fine-grained, can show internal trends, or can show internal variations which apparently are random. Other thick units contain soil clasts apparently reworked from underlying units. Thin laminae average approximately 1 mm in thickness; lenticular distribution and composition of some thin laminae indicates that they are fillets shed from adjacent rock fragments. Other dark fine-grained well-sorted thin laminae appear to be surficial zones reworked by micrometeorites. Interpretations of stratigraphic succession can be strengthened by the occurrence of characteristic coarse rock fragments and the orientation of large spatter agglutinates, which are commonly found in their original depositional orientation.

Exploration of interactions between bioactive solutes and vitamin B9 in aqueous medium by physico-chemical contrivances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Mahendra Nath; Chakraborti, Palash; Ekka, Deepak

2014-09-01

Molecular interaction prevailing in α-amino acids (glycine, L-alanine, L-valine) and aqueous solution of folic acid (FA) has been reported by physico-chemical properties as density (ρ), viscosity (η), refractive index (nD) and ultrasonic speed (u) at 298.15 K. The extent of interaction (solute-solvent interaction) is expressed in terms of the limiting apparent molar volume (φ0V), viscosity B-coefficient, molar refraction (RM) and limiting apparent molar adiabatic compressibility (φ0K). The trends in transfer volumes, Δφ0V, have been interpreted in terms of solute-cosolute interactions on the basis of a co-sphere overlap model. The role of the cosolute (FA), and the contribution of solute-solute and solute-solvent interactions to the solution complexes, has also been analysed through the derived properties.

Results from the NOAA National Status and Trends Program on distribution and effects of chemical contamination in the coastal and estuarine United States.

PubMed

O'Connor, T P; Ehler, C N

1991-04-01

The NOAA National Status and Trends (NS&T) Program has been monitoring chemical contamination in fish livers, and surface sediments since 1984 and in molluscan tissue and sediments since 1986. Data from fine-grained sediment at 175 sites are used to describe the spatial distribution of contamination throughout the coastal and estuarine United States. Highest levels are generally found in, and considered representative of, urban areas. It should be noted, however, that these levels are not as high as have been found near discharge pipes or in isolated industrial areas through other monitoring efforts. Dramatic biological responses, such as liver tumors in fish or apparently toxic contaminant levels in sediment, are found infrequently. Subtle biological changes, especially those that affect reproductive ability, are being sought. Data from three annual collections of mollusks have been used to identify early signals of temporal trends in contamination at NS&T sites.

Aquifer geometry, lithology, and water levels in the Anza–Terwilliger area—2013, Riverside and San Diego Counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Landon, Matthew K.; Morita, Andrew Y.; Nawikas, Joseph M.; Christensen, Allen H.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Langenheim, Victoria E.

2015-11-24

On the basis of data from 33 wells, water levels mostly declined between the fall of 2006 and the fall of 2013; the median decline was 5.1 feet during this period, for a median rate of decline of about 0.7 feet/year. Based on data from 40 wells, water-level changes between fall 2004 and fall 2013 were variable in magnitude and trend, but had a median decline of 2.4 feet and a median rate of decline of about 0.3 feet/ year. These differences in apparent rates of groundwater-level change highlight the value of ongoing water-level measurements to distinguish decadal, or longer term, trends in groundwater storage often associated with climatic variability and trends. Fifty-four long-term hydrographs indicated the sensitivity of groundwater levels to climatic conditions; they also showed a general decline in water levels across the study area since 1986 and, in some cases, dating back to the 1950s.

Apparent consumption of refined sugar in Australia (1938-2011).

PubMed

McNeill, T J; Shrapnel, W S

2015-11-01

In Australia, the Australian Bureau of Statistics discontinued collection of apparent consumption data for refined sugars in 1998/1999. The objectives of this study were to update this data series to determine whether it is a reliable data series that reflects consumption of refined sugars, defined as sucrose in the forms of refined or raw sugar or liquified sugars manufactured for human consumption. The study used the same methodology as that used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics to derive a refined sugars consumption estimate each year until the collection was discontinued. Sales by Australian refiners, refined sugars imports and the net balance of refined sugars contained in foods imported into, and exported from, Australia were used to calculate total refined sugars use for each year up to 2011. Per capita consumption figures were then derived. During the period 1938-2011, apparent consumption of refined sugars in Australia fell 13.1% from 48.3 to 42.0 kg per head (R(2)=0.74). Between the 1950s and the 1970s, apparent consumption was relatively stable at about 50 kg per person. In the shorter period 1970-2011, refined sugars consumption fell 16.5% from 50.3 to 42.0 kg per head, though greater variability was evident (R(2)=0.53). An alternative data set showed greater volatility with no trend up or down. The limited variability of the extended apparent consumption series and its consistency with recent national dietary survey data and sugar-sweetened beverage sales data indicate that it is a reliable data set that reflects declining intake of refined sugars in Australia.

Marketing nutrition & health-related benefits of food & beverage products: enforcement, litigation & liability issues.

PubMed

Roller, Sarah; Pippins, Raqiyyah

2010-01-01

Over the past decade, the liability risks associated with food and beverage product marketing have increased significantly, particularly with respect to nutrition and health-related product benefit claims. FDA and FTC enforcement priorities appear to have contributed to the increasing liability trends that are associated with these nutrition and health-related claims. This article examines key enforcement and litigation developments involving conventional food and beverage product marketing claims during the first 18 months of President Obama's administration: Part I considers FDA enforcement priorities and recent warning letters; Part II considers FTC enforcement priorities, warning letters, and consent orders; and Part III considers the relationship between FDA and FTC enforcement priorities and recent false advertising cases brought by private parties challenging nutrition and health-related marketing claims for food and beverage products. The article makes recommendations concerning ways in which food and beverage companies can help minimize liability risks associated with health-related marketing claims. In addition, the article suggests that federal policy reforms may be required to counter the perverse chilling effects current food liability trends appear to be having on health-related marketing claims for food and beverage products, and proposes a number of specific reforms that would help encourage the responsible use of well-substantiated marketing claims that can help foster healthy dietary practices. In view of the obesity prevention and other diet-related public health priorities of the Obama administration, the article suggests that this is an opportune time to address the apparent chilling effects increasing food liability risks are having on nutrition and health-related marketing claims for healthy food and beverage products, and potential adverse consequences for public health.

Establishing a reference range for triiodothyronine levels in preterm infants.

PubMed

Oh, Ki Won; Koo, Mi Sung; Park, Hye Won; Chung, Mi Lim; Kim, Min-ho; Lim, Gina

2014-10-01

Thyroid dysfunction affects clinical complications in preterm infants and older children. However, thyroid hormone replacement in preterm infants has no proven benefits, possibly owing to the lack of an appropriate reference range for thyroid hormone levels. We aimed to establish a reference range for triiodothyronine (T3) levels at 1-month postnatal age (PNA) in preterm infants. This retrospective study included preterm infants born at a tertiary referral neonatal center at gestational age (GA)<35 weeks with no apparent thyroid dysfunction, for 6 consecutive years, with follow-up from PNA 2 weeks to 16 weeks. Using thyroid function tests (TFT), the relationships between T3 levels and thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (fT4) levels, birth weight, GA, postmenstrual age (PMA), and PNA were examined. The conversion trend for fT4 to T3 was analyzed using the T3/fT4 ratio. Overall, 464 TFTs from 266 infants were analyzed, after excluding 65 infants with thyroid dysfunction. T3 levels increased with fT4 levels, birth weight, GA, PMA, and PNA but not with TSH levels. The T3/fT4 ratio also increased with GA, PNA, and PMA. The average T3 level at 1 month PNA was 72.56 ± 27.83 ng/dL, with significant stratifications by GA. Relatively low T3 and fT4 levels in preterm infants were considered normal, with T3 levels and conversion trends increasing with GA, PMA, and PNA. Further studies are required to confirm the role of the present reference range in thyroid hormone replacement therapy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population structure and genetic diversity of the amphiatlantic haploid peatmoss Sphagnum affine (Sphagnopsida).

PubMed

Thingsgaard, K

2001-10-01

Nineteen populations of Sphagnum affine were included in a study of genetic diversity and structure in fragmented and less fragmented landscapes, and differentiation at intercontinental and three regional levels. Isozyme electrophoresis of eight enzyme systems revealed 12 variable loci, which could be used for haplotype identification. A hierachical analysis of variance (AMOVA) revealed no significant intercontinental differentiation, and very limited differentiation among European regions. A trend of decreasing diversity with increasing latitude was apparent. Gametic phase disequilibria was high, suggesting nonrandom mating and regionally high incidences of inbreeding. The partitioning of genetic variation within and among populations in each region varied among regions, the northernmost populations having 86% of the total variation among populations, the southernmost in Scandinavia having 25% of the variation among populations, whereas the American populations displayed 89% of the variation within populations. Fifteen alleles at eight loci occurred in the U.S.A. which were not encountered in Europe, whereas only three European alleles at one locus in three populations were not encountered in U.S.A. The differences in diversity between North America and Europe may result from loss of genetic diversity caused by founder effects during postglacial recolonization of northern Europe. In Europe, the main mountain ranges extend E-W, posing severe barriers to northwards migration of lowland species, compared to the N-S trend of mountain ranges in North America. The decline in genetic diversity and increase in population differentiation and gametic phase disequilibria towards the north in Scandinavia may be caused by a series of founder effects during postglacial migration. These may have corresponded to minor climatic oscillations that influenced the migration front/leading edge in the suboceanic lowlands of Norway. According to this model random genetic drift will be an increasingly important structuring factor with latitude.

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

PubMed Central

Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems. PMID:27362499

Stillbirth and neonatal death rates across time: the influence of pregnancy terminations and birth defects in a Western Australian population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Farrant, Brad M; Stanley, Fiona J; Hardelid, Pia; Shepherd, Carrington C J

2016-05-17

The stillbirth rate in most high income countries reduced in the early part of the 20(th) century but has apparently been static over the past 2½ decades. However, there has not been any account taken of pregnancy terminations and birth defects on these trends. The current study sought to quantify these relationships using linked Western Australian administrative data for the years 1986-2010. We analysed a retrospective, population-based cohort of Western Australia births from 1986 to 2010, with de-identified linked data from core population health datasets. The study revealed a significant decrease in the neonatal death rate from 1986 to 2010 (6.1 to 2.1 neonatal deaths per 1000 births; p < .01), while the overall stillbirth rate remained static. The stillbirth trend was driven by deaths in the extremely preterm period (20-27 weeks; which account for about half of all recorded stillbirths and neonatal deaths), masking significant decreases in the rate of stillbirth at very preterm (28-31 weeks), moderate to late preterm (32-36 weeks), and term (37+ weeks). For singletons, birth defects made up an increasing proportion of stillbirths and decreasing proportion of neonatal deaths over the study period-a shift that appears to have been largely driven by the increase in late pregnancy terminations (20 weeks or more gestation). After accounting for pregnancy terminations, we observed a significant downward trend in stillbirth and neonatal death rates at every gestational age. Changes in clinical practice related to pregnancy terminations have played a substantial role in shaping stillbirth and neonatal death rates in Western Australia over the 2½ decades to 2010. The study underscores the need to disaggregate perinatal mortality data in order to support a fuller consideration of the influence of pregnancy terminations and birth defects when assessing change over time in the rates of stillbirth and neonatal death.

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

PubMed

Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems.

Optimal allocation of trend following strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebenkov, Denis S.; Serror, Jeremy

2015-09-01

We consider a portfolio allocation problem for trend following (TF) strategies on multiple correlated assets. Under simplifying assumptions of a Gaussian market and linear TF strategies, we derive analytical formulas for the mean and variance of the portfolio return. We construct then the optimal portfolio that maximizes risk-adjusted return by accounting for inter-asset correlations. The dynamic allocation problem for n assets is shown to be equivalent to the classical static allocation problem for n2 virtual assets that include lead-lag corrections in positions of TF strategies. The respective roles of asset auto-correlations and inter-asset correlations are investigated in depth for the two-asset case and a sector model. In contrast to the principle of diversification suggesting to treat uncorrelated assets, we show that inter-asset correlations allow one to estimate apparent trends more reliably and to adjust the TF positions more efficiently. If properly accounted for, inter-asset correlations are not deteriorative but beneficial for portfolio management that can open new profit opportunities for trend followers. These concepts are illustrated using daily returns of three highly correlated futures markets: the E-mini S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50 index, and the US 10-year T-note futures.

Radial and Azimuthal Anisotropy Tomography of the NE Japan Subduction Zone: Implications for the Pacific Slab and Mantle Wedge Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishise, Motoko; Kawakatsu, Hitoshi; Morishige, Manabu; Shiomi, Katsuhiko

2018-05-01

We investigate slab and mantle structure of the NE Japan subduction zone from P wave azimuthal and radial anisotropy using travel time tomography. Trench normal E-W-trending azimuthal anisotropy (AA) and radial anisotropy (RA) with VPV > VPH are found in the mantle wedge, which supports the existence of small-scale convection in the mantle wedge with flow-induced LPO of mantle minerals. In the subducting Pacific slab, trench parallel N-S-trending AA and RA with VPH > VPV are obtained. Considering the effect of dip of the subducting slab on apparent anisotropy, we suggest that both characteristics can be explained by the presence of laminar structure, in addition to AA frozen-in in the subducting plate prior to subduction.

Pregnancy-related pharmacokinetic changes.

PubMed

Tasnif, Y; Morado, J; Hebert, M F

2016-07-01

The pharmacokinetics of many drugs are altered by pregnancy. Drug distribution and protein binding are changed by pregnancy. While some drug metabolizing enzymes have an apparent increase in activity, others have an apparent decrease in activity. Not only is drug metabolism affected by pregnancy, but renal filtration is also increased. In addition, pregnancy alters the apparent activities of multiple drug transporters resulting in changes in the net renal secretion of drugs. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Correlation of social cognition and neurocognition on psychotic outcome: a naturalistic follow-up study of subjects with attenuated psychosis syndrome

PubMed Central

Zhang, TianHong; Cui, HuiRu; Tang, YingYing; Xu, LiHua; Li, HuiJun; Wei, YanYan; Liu, XiaoHua; Chow, Annabelle; Li, ChunBo; Jiang, KaiDa; Xiao, ZePing; Wang, JiJun

2016-01-01

Neurocognitive decline has been observed in patients with psychosis as well as attenuated psychosis syndrome (APS). We tested the hypothesis that APS increases dependence on neurocognition during the interpretation of others’ mental states and that a combination index of Theory of Mind (ToM) and neurocognition improves the predictive accuracy of psychosis conversion. A sample of 83 APS individuals and 90 healthy controls (HC) were assessed by comprehensive cognitive tests. The cohort also completed a one-year follow-up. In the APS group, ToM was associated with an apparent increase in neurocognition, but this trend was not evident in the HC group. Using the new index of combined neurocognition and ToM scores, the sensitivity for predicting psychosis-proneness was 75% and the specificity was 69%. Our data suggest that the correlations between ToM function and neurocognition in APS subjects were stronger than those in healthy controls. A composite index of neurocognition and ToM could improve the predictive validity of a future conversion to psychosis. PMID:27721394

Colony attendance and population monitoring of Black-legged Kittiwakes on the Semidi Islands, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Scott A.; Hatch, Martha A.

1988-01-01

Patterns of colony attendance in Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) were studied over 5 years on the Semidi Islands, western Gulf of Alaska. A census period of 50 days, extending from first egg laying through final hatching, was appropriate because counts made then were subject to the least amount of daily variation. Five counts during that period were sufficient to detect a 25% change in numbers between years; counts made on all 50 days of the census period would detect a 5 to 7% change. There was little evidence for seasonal trends or serial correlation of counts during the census period, but attendance was negatively correlated with wind speed. Half of an apparent 17% increase in population between 1980 and 1981 was due to birds spending more time at their nest sites in the latter year, thereby increasing the mean of attendance counts. Despite such difficulties in the interpretation of attendance counts, birds were considered to be better counting units for population monitoring than nests, because nest densities were subject to large annual fluctuations in breeding effort.

Ice-sheet thinning and acceleration at Camp Century, Greenlan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colgan, W. T.

2017-12-01

Camp Century, Greenland (77.18 °N, 61.12 °W, 1900 m), is located approximately 150 km inland from the ice-sheet margin in Northwest Greenland. In-situ and remotely-sensed measurements of ice-sheet elevation at Camp Century exhibit a thinning trend between 1964 and the present. A comparison of 1966 and 2017 firn density profiles indicates that a portion of this ice-sheet thinning is attributable to increased firn compaction rate. In-situ measurements of increasing ice surface velocity over the 1977-2017 period indicate that enhanced horizontal divergence of ice flux is also contributing to ice dynamic thinning at Camp Century. This apparent ice dynamic thinning could potentially result from a migrating local flow divide or decreasing effective ice viscosity. In a shorter-term context, observations of decadal-scale ice-sheet thinning and acceleration at Camp Century highlights underappreciated transience in inland ice form and flow during the satellite era. In a longer-term context, these multi-decadal observations contrast with inferences of millennial-scale ice-sheet thickening and deceleration at Camp Century.

Climate Influence on Deep Sea Populations

PubMed Central

Company, Joan B.; Puig, Pere; Sardà, Francesc; Palanques, Albert; Latasa, Mikel; Scharek, Renate

2008-01-01

Dynamics of biological processes on the deep-sea floor are traditionally thought to be controlled by vertical sinking of particles from the euphotic zone at a seasonal scale. However, little is known about the influence of lateral particle transport from continental margins to deep-sea ecosystems. To address this question, we report here how the formation of dense shelf waters and their subsequent downslope cascade, a climate induced phenomenon, affects the population of the deep-sea shrimp Aristeus antennatus. We found evidence that strong currents associated with intense cascading events correlates with the disappearance of this species from its fishing grounds, producing a temporary fishery collapse. Despite this initial negative effect, landings increase between 3 and 5 years after these major events, preceded by an increase of juveniles. The transport of particulate organic matter associated with cascading appears to enhance the recruitment of this deep-sea living resource, apparently mitigating the general trend of overexploitation. Because cascade of dense water from continental shelves is a global phenomenon, we anticipate that its influence on deep-sea ecosystems and fisheries worldwide should be larger than previously thought. PMID:18197243

Q-Speciation and Network Structure Evolution in Invert Calcium Silicate Glasses.

PubMed

Kaseman, Derrick C; Retsinas, A; Kalampounias, A G; Papatheodorou, G N; Sen, S

2015-07-02

Binary silicate glasses in the system CaO-SiO2 are synthesized over an extended composition range (42 mol % ≤ CaO ≤ 61 mol %), using container-less aerodynamic levitation techniques and CO2-laser heating. The compositional evolution of Q speciation in these glasses is quantified using (29)Si and (17)O magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The results indicate progressive depolymerization of the silicate network upon addition of CaO and significant deviation of the Q speciation from the binary model. The equilibrium constants for the various Q species disproportionation reactions for these glasses are found to be similar to (much smaller than) those characteristic of Li (Mg)-silicate glasses, consistent with the corresponding trends in the field strengths of these modifier cations. Increasing CaO concentration results in an increase in the packing density and structural rigidity of these glasses and consequently in their glass transition temperature Tg. This apparent role reversal of conventional network-modifying cations in invert alkaline-earth silicate glasses are compared and contrasted with that in their alkali silicate counterparts.

Suicide in Iran: The Facts and the Figures from Nationwide Reports

PubMed Central

Hassanian-Moghaddam, Hossein; Zamani, Nasim

2017-01-01

Objective: Data on national rates of suicide is limited in Iran, preventing an action plan for health scope of suicide prevention. The current brief study was conducted to review available national published data on suicide and to interpret the probable discrepancies. Method: We evaluated all 20-year recent published original articles on committed suicides searching Iranian scientific databases, PubMed, and Google Scholar with the keywords of suicide, mortality, and Iran. Results: Articles showed an overall increased trend of suicidal deaths in Iran. Discrepancies existed regarding suicide rate and demographic characteristics among 9 English and Persian published articles. Although a suicide rate of 6.2 per 100 000 was reported in 2003, almost 31 times greater than 1991, an average suicide rate of 9.9 per 100 000 was calculated based on data interpretations. Conclusion: Apparently, Iran has had the highest increase in suicide-related deaths among Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) and Islamic countries during the recent decades. National policies to prevent suicide have not been efficient enough, and urgent intervention is needed.‏ PMID:28496505

The Response of Stream and Soil Chemistry to Decreases in Acid Deposition in the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McHale, M. R.; Burns, D. A.; Siemion, J.; Antidormi, M. R.

2016-12-01

The Catskill Mountains have been adversely impacted by decades of acid deposition, however, since the early 1990s, acid deposition levels have decreased sharply as a result of decreases in emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. The purpose of this study is to provide updated trends in acid deposition and stream-water chemistry in the southeastern Catskill Mountains and to examine whether soil chemistry has shown signs of recovery during the past 2 decades. We measured significant reductions in acid deposition in the region during the 23 year period from 1992 to 2014. The reductions were reflected in significant improvement in stream-water quality in all 5 of the streams included in this study. The largest and most significant trends were for sulfate (SO42-) concentrations (mean trend of -2.5 μeq L-1 yr-1 for 5 sites); hydrogen ion (H+) also decreased significantly as did inorganic monomeric aluminum (Alim) which is toxic to some aquatic biota (mean trends of -0.3 μeq L-1 yr-1 for H+ and -0.1 μeq L-1 yr-1 for Alim for the 3 most acidic sites). Acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) increased a mean of 0.65 μeq L-1 yr-1 for all 5 sites, which was 4 fold less than the decrease in SO42- concentrations. These upward trends in ANC were limited in part by coincident decreases in base cations (-1.3 μeq L-1 yr-1 for calcium + magnesium). No significant trends were detected in stream-water nitrate (NO3-) concentrations despite significant decreasing trends in NO3- deposition. This incongruity is likely caused by the large biological demand and complex cycling processes of nitrogen. Despite the decreases in stream-water acidity, we measured no recovery in soil chemistry which we attributed to soils with low buffering capacity that have been further depleted by decades of acid deposition. Tightly coupled decreasing trends in stream-water silicon (Si) (-0.2 μeq L-1 yr-1) and base cations suggest a decrease in the soil mineral weathering rate. We hypothesize that a decrease in the ionic strength of soil water and shallow groundwater may be the principal driver of this apparent decreasing rate of mineral dissolution. A decreasing weathering rate would help to explain the slow recovery of stream pH and ANC as well as that of soil base cations, which has implications for assessments of critical loads in this region.

Effects of Effortful Swallow on Cardiac Autonomic Regulation.

PubMed

Gomes, Lívia M S; Silva, Roberta G; Melo, Monique; Silva, Nayra N; Vanderlei, Franciele M; Garner, David M; de Abreu, Luiz Carlos; Valenti, Vitor E

2016-04-01

Swallowing-induced changes in heart rate have been recently reported. However, it is not apparent the responses of heart rate variability (HRV) elicited by effortful swallow maneuver. We investigated the acute effects of effortful swallowing maneuver on HRV. This study was performed on 34 healthy women between 18 and 35 years old. We assessed heart rate variability in the time (SDNN, RMSSD, and pNN50) and frequency (HF, LF, and LF/HF ratio) domains and, visual analysis through the Poincaré plot. The subjects remained at rest for 5 min during spontaneous swallowing and then performed effortful swallowing for 5 min. HRV was analyzed during spontaneous and effortful swallowing. We found no significant differences for SDNN, pNN50, RMSSD, HF in absolute units (ms(2)). There is a trend for increase of LF in absolute (p = 0.05) and normalized (p = 0.08) units during effortful swallowing. HF in normalized units reduced (p = 0.02) during effortful swallowing and LF/HF ratio (p = 0.03) increased during effortful swallowing. In conclusion effortful swallow maneuver in healthy women increased sympathetic cardiac modulation, indicating a cardiac overload.

The phenology of winter rye in Poland: an analysis of long-term experimental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blecharczyk, Andrzej; Sawinska, Zuzanna; Małecka, Irena; Sparks, Tim H.; Tryjanowski, Piotr

2016-09-01

The study of the phenology of crops, although quite popular, has limitations, mainly because of frequent changes to crop varieties and management practices. Here, we present data on the phenology and yield of winter rye in western Poland collected between 1957 and 2012 from a long-term field experiment. Data were examined for trends through time and compared to climatological factors using regression analysis. Both annual air temperature and precipitation increased during the study period, equivalent to 2 °C and 186 mm, respectively, over the 52-year period for which met data were available. We detected significant delays in sowing date and recently in emergence, but significant advances were apparent in full flowering date equivalent to 4 days/decade. Yield and plant density experienced a step like change in 1986; yield increasing by ca. 70 % and plant density increasing by ca. 50 %, almost coinciding with a similar change in annual mean temperature, but most likely caused by a changed seed rate and use of herbicides. Future climate change is expected to have a greater impact on this crop, but farmers may be able to adapt to these changes by modifying water regimes, using new machinery and sowing new rye varieties.

Increasing Antimicrobial Resistance Monitored in Surveillance Analysis of Blood Stream Infections in Febrile Neutropenic Pediatric Oncology Patients.

PubMed

El-Mahallawy, Hadir A; Hassan, Safaa Shawky; El-Wakil, Mohamed; Moneer, Manar M; Shalaby, Lobna

2015-01-01

Continuous surveillance of pattern of blood stream infection is necessary in febrile neutropenia (FN)especially with the recent escalating trend in the management of pediatric cancer patients towards intensified regimens and with the increase in infections caused by resistant organisms limiting the choice of antibiotics. To monitor change in pattern of blood stream infections (BSI) in FN pediatric cancer patients. Surveillance of FN episodes with positive BSI was prospectively monitored and compared to a previous surveillance in the same pediatric oncology unit. A total of 232 BSI positive episodes were documented in 192 patients during a 6 months period. The results of recent surveillance analysis showed an increase in intensified regimens of chemotherapy, antimicrobial resistance, fungal infections, and prolonged duration of episodes when compared to previous surveillance, with p value sof <0.001, 0.005, 0.021, and <0.001, respectively. There was an apparent decrease in the crude mortality but this was not statistically significant, to 6% in 2011 from 10 % in 2006. The pattern of BSI at our institution is still inclining towards gram positive organisms but is showing a shift towards more antibiotic resistance and fungal infections.

Analysis of photo linear elements, Laramie Mountains, Wyoming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackstone, D. L., Jr.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Photo linear features in the Precambrian rocks of the Laramie Mountains are delineated, and the azimuths plotted on rose diagrams. Three strike directions are dominant, two of which are in the northeast quadrant. Laramide folds in the Laramie basin to the west of the mountains appear to have the same trend, and apparently have been controlled by response of the basement along fractures such as have been measured from the imagery.

Influence of processing conditions on apparent viscosity and system parameters during extrusion of distiller's dried grains-based snacks.

PubMed

Singha, Poonam; Muthukumarappan, Kasiviswanathan; Krishnan, Padmanaban

2018-01-01

A combination of different levels of distillers dried grains processed for food application (FDDG), garbanzo flour and corn grits were chosen as a source of high-protein and high-fiber extruded snacks. A four-factor central composite rotatable design was adopted to study the effect of FDDG level, moisture content of blends, extrusion temperature, and screw speed on the apparent viscosity, mass flow rate or MFR, torque, and specific mechanical energy or SME during the extrusion process. With increase in the extrusion temperature from 100 to 140°C, apparent viscosity, specific mechanical energy, and torque value decreased. Increase in FDDG level resulted in increase in apparent viscosity, SME and torque. FDDG had no significant effect (p > .5) on mass flow rate. SME also increased with increase in the screw speed which could be due to the higher shear rates at higher screw speeds. Screw speed and moisture content had significant negative effect ( p  <   .05) on the torque. The apparent viscosity of dough inside the extruder and the system parameters were affected by the processing conditions. This study will be useful for control of extrusion process of blends containing these ingredients for the development of high-protein high-fiber extruded snacks.

Drivers of multi-century trends in the atmospheric CO2 mean annual cycle in a prognostic ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liptak, Jessica; Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Lindsay, Keith

2017-03-01

The amplitude of the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 is a diagnostic of seasonal surface-atmosphere carbon exchange. Atmospheric observations show that this quantity has increased over most of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during the last 3 decades, likely from a combination of enhanced atmospheric CO2, climate change, and anthropogenic land use change. Accurate climate prediction requires accounting for long-term interactions between the environment and carbon cycling; thus, analysis of the evolution of the mean annual cycle in a fully prognostic Earth system model may provide insight into the multi-decadal influence of environmental change on the carbon cycle. We analyzed the evolution of the mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 simulated by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) from 1950 to 2300 under three scenarios designed to separate the effects of climate change, atmospheric CO2 fertilization, and land use change. The NH CO2 seasonal amplitude increase in the CESM mainly reflected enhanced primary productivity during the growing season due to climate change and the combined effects of CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition over the mid- and high latitudes. However, the simulations revealed shifts in key climate drivers of the atmospheric CO2 seasonality that were not apparent before 2100. CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition in boreal and temperate ecosystems were the largest contributors to mean annual cycle amplification over the midlatitudes for the duration of the simulation (1950-2300). Climate change from boreal ecosystems was the main driver of Arctic CO2 annual cycle amplification between 1950 and 2100, but CO2 fertilization had a stronger effect on the Arctic CO2 annual cycle amplitude during 2100-2300. Prior to 2100, the NH CO2 annual cycle amplitude increased in conjunction with an increase in the NH land carbon sink. However, these trends decoupled after 2100, underscoring that an increasing atmospheric CO2 annual cycle amplitude does not necessarily imply a strengthened terrestrial carbon sink.

Investigation of heat flux processes governing the increase of groundwater temperatures beneath cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer, P.; Menberg, K.; Zhu, K.; Blum, P.

2012-12-01

In the subsurface of many cities there are widespread and persistent thermal anomalies. These so-called subsurface urban heat islands (UHIs), which also stimulate warming of urban aquifers, are triggered by various processes. Possible heat sources are basements of buildings, leakage of sewage systems, buried district heating networks, re-injection of cooling water and solar irradiation on paved surfaces. In the current study, the reported groundwater temperatures in several Central European cities, such as Berlin, Cologne (Germany) and Zurich (Switzerland) are compared. Available data sets are supplemented by temperature measurements and depth profiles in observation wells. Trend analyses are conducted with time series of groundwater temperatures, and three-dimensional groundwater temperature maps are provided. In all investigated cities, pronounced positive temperature anomalies are present. The distribution of groundwater temperatures appears to be spatially and temporally highly variable. Apparently, the increased heat input into the urban subsurface is controlled by very local and site-specific parameters. In the long-run, the combination of various heat sources results in an extensive temperature increase. In many cases, the maximum temperature elevation is found close to the city center. Regional groundwater temperature differences between the city center and the rural background are up to 5 °C, with local hot spots of even more pronounced anomalies. Particular heat sources, like cooling water injections or case-specific underground constructions, can cause local temperatures > 20 °C in the subsurface. Examination of the long-term variations in isotherm maps shows that temperatures have increased by about 1 °C in the city, as well as in the rural background areas over the last decades. This increase could be reproduced with trend analysis of temperature data gathered from several groundwater wells. Comparison between groundwater and air temperatures in the city of Karlsruhe (Germany), for example, also indicates a spatial correlation between the urban heat island effect in the subsurface and in the atmosphere.

The Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index in Relation to Sunspot Number, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, the Mauna Loa Atmospheric Concentration of CO2, and Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Global warming/climate change has been a subject of scientific interest since the early 19th century. In particular, increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) have long been thought to account for Earth's increased warming, although the lack of a dependable set of observational data was apparent as late as the mid 1950s. However, beginning in the late 1950s, being associated with the International Geophysical Year, the opportunity arose to begin accurate continuous monitoring of the Earth's atmospheric concentration of CO2. Consequently, it is now well established that the atmospheric concentration of CO2, while varying seasonally within any particular year, has steadily increased over time. Associated with this rising trend in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is a rising trend in the surface-air and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). This Technical Publication (TP) examines the statistical relationships between 10-year moving averages (10-yma) of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), sunspot number (SSN), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, and the Mauna Loa CO2 (MLCO2) index for the common interval 1964-2006, where the 10-yma values are used to indicate trends in the data. Scatter plots using the 10-yma values between GLOTI and each of the other parameters are determined, both as single-variate and multivariate fits. Scatter plots are also determined for MLCO2 using single-variate and bivariate (BV) fits, based on the GLOTI alone and the GLOTI in combination with the AMO index. On the basis of the inferred preferential fits for MLCO2, estimates for MLCO2 are determined for the interval 1885-1964, thereby yielding an estimate of the preindustrial level of atmospheric concentration of CO2. Lastly, 10-yma values of MLCO2 are compared against 10-yma estimates of the total carbon emissions (TCE) to determine the likelihood that manmade sources of carbon emissions are indeed responsible for the recent warming now being experienced. (Parametric values used in this TP are those available prior to the end of 2012.)

Evolving Trends in Endodontic Research: An Assessment of Published Articles in 2 Leading Endodontic Journals.

PubMed

Tzanetakis, Giorgos N; Stefopoulos, Spyridon; Loizides, Alexios L; Kakavetsos, Vasileios D; Kontakiotis, Evangelos G

2015-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate and analyze the evolving trends in endodontic research in 2 leading endodontic journals (ie, Journal of Endodontics and International Endodontic Journal) in articles published from January 2009 to December 2013. The differences in content between this period and a 10-year earlier period from January 1999 to December 2003 were also evaluated. Each journal's content was accessed through the web edition. For each article, the following parameters were recorded: number of authors, article type, number of affiliations, field of study, source of article, and geographic origin. The recorded data were analyzed using both descriptive and analytic statistics. During 2009-2013 (second period), the mean number of authors per article increased significantly compared with 1999-2003 (first period). The main volume of the literature in both periods and journals was original research articles. The number of published reviews increased significantly from the first to the second study period in contrast to case reports/clinical articles, which presented a significant decrease. "Endodontic materials" was the most prevalent thematic category in both study periods. The number of published articles related to "biology" and "chemical preparation and disinfection" increased significantly from the first to the second study period. On the contrary, the number of articles regarding "obturation and microleakage" presented a considerable decrease at the same time. The United States was the leading country in the number of publications in the first period followed by Brazil. In the second period, this rank was reversed with Brazil becoming the leading country followed by the United States. In the last 15 years, the progress of the specialty of endodontology was apparent as shown through the trends and shifts in research orientation in published articles in the 2 leading endodontic journals. The results of the present reviewing process encourage both journals to publish well-designed research projects with a high degree of difficulty, thus contributing to a more evidence-based approach of endodontology. Copyright © 2015 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Won Kyung; Lee, Hye Ah; Lim, Youn Hee; Park, Hyesook

2016-05-01

A heat wave could increase mortality owing to high temperature. However, little is known about the added (duration) effect of heat wave from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and different effect sizes depending on the definition of heat waves and models. A distributed lag non-linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the added effect of heat wave on mortality after adjusting for long-term and intra-seasonal trends and apparent temperature. We evaluated the cumulative relative risk of the added wave effect on mortality on lag days 0-30. The models were constructed using nine definitions of heat wave and two relationships (cubic spline and linear threshold model) between temperature and mortality to leave out the high temperature effect. Further, we performed sensitivity analysis to evaluate the changes in the effect of heat wave on mortality according to the different degrees of freedom for time trend and cubic spline of temperature. We found that heat wave had the added effect from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and it was considerable in the aspect of cumulative risk because of the lagged influence. When heat wave was defined with a threshold of 98th percentile temperature and ≥2, 3, and 4 consecutive days, mortality increased by 14.8 % (7.5-22.6, 95 % confidence interval (CI)), 18.1 % (10.8-26.0, 95 % CI), 18.1 % (10.7-25.9, 95 % CI), respectively, in cubic spline model. When it came to the definitions of 90th and 95th percentile, the risk increase in mortality declined to 3.7-5.8 % and 8.6-11.3 %, respectively. This effect was robust to the flexibility of the model for temperature and time trend, while the definitions of a heat wave were critical in estimating its relationship with mortality. This finding could help deepen our understanding and quantifying of the relationship between heat wave and mortality and select an appropriate definition of heat wave and temperature model in the future studies.

The transmission of vertical vibration through seats: Influence of the characteristics of the human body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toward, Martin G. R.; Griffin, Michael J.

2011-12-01

The transmission of vibration through a seat depends on the impedance of the seat and the apparent mass of the seat occupant. This study was designed to determine how factors affecting the apparent mass of the body (age, gender, physical characteristics, backrest contact, and magnitude of vibration) affect seat transmissibility. The transmission of vertical vibration through a car seat was measured with 80 adults (41 males and 39 females aged 18-65) at frequencies between 0.6 and 20 Hz with two backrest conditions (no backrest and backrest), and with three magnitudes of random vibration (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m s -2 rms). Linear regression models were used to study the effects of subject physical characteristics (age, gender, and anthropometry) and features of their apparent mass (resonance frequency, apparent mass at resonance and at 12 Hz) on the measured seat transmissibility. The strongest predictor of both the frequency of the principal resonance in seat transmissibility and the seat transmissibility at resonance was subject age, with other factors having only marginal effects. The transmissibility of the seat at 12 Hz depended on subject age, body mass index, and gender. Although subject weight was strongly associated with apparent mass, weight was not strongly associated with seat transmissibility. The resonance frequency of the seat decreased with increases in the magnitude of the vibration excitation and increased when subjects made contact with the backrest. Inter-subject variability in the resonance frequency and transmissibility at resonance was less with greater vibration excitation, but was largely unaffected by backrest contact. A lumped parameter seat-person model showed that changes in seat transmissibility with age can be predicted from changes in apparent mass with age, and that the dynamic stiffness of the seat appeared to increase with increased loading so as to compensate for increases in subject apparent mass associated with increased sitting weight.

Perioperative deaths: a further comparative review of coroner's autopsies with particular reference to the occurrence of fatal iatrogenic injury.

PubMed

Lau, G

2000-07-01

In previous triennial reviews of Coroner's perioperative autopsies conducted during the periods 1989 to 1991 and 1992 to 1994, it was observed that the necropsy incidence of such deaths rose from 2% to 2.6% (P < 0.05). Concurrently, the rate of iatrogenic deaths had nearly doubled from 15.2% to 28.8% (P < 0.02). These findings spurred a review of the subsequent triennium (1995 to 1997), in order to monitor the apparent rise in these trends and to study the frequency and occurrence of iatrogenic deaths in relation to the number of invasive procedures performed, as well as during emergency and elective procedures. A retrospective (descriptive and comparative) study, comprising a clinico-pathological review of a series of 270 perioperative deaths (defined as deaths occurring during or after invasive therapeutic or diagnostic procedures, up to a week after discharge, and excluding cases of major trauma from suicides, homicides, as well as road and industrial accidents) reported to the Coroner, for which autopsies were conducted at the Department of Forensic Medicine from 1995 to 1997. The necropsy incidence of 4.4% (270/6074) represented a significant rise over the previous triennia (P < 0.01). As in previous years, there was a predominance of males (M:F = 1.65:1) and middle-aged to elderly patients (range 0 to 92 years, mean 55.8 years, median 63 years), most of whom had died after a variable, but usually brief, postoperative interval [0 to 97, 4.2, 1 day(s)] and a more variable period of hospitalisation (< 1 to 289, 12.6, 7 days). A total of 408 invasive procedures were performed, amounting to an average of 1.5 per patient; 101 patients (37.4%) underwent multiple (> 1) interventions, which were initially classified as elective procedures in 27 cases. There were 66 (24.4%) iatrogenic deaths, of which 2 (0.7%) were due to anaesthetic mishaps; 18/64 iatrogenic deaths, unrelated to anaesthesia, occurred after the first postoperative day. The proportions of such deaths amongst patients subjected to multiple interventions, or initial elective procedures, were more than twice as high as amongst those undergoing single procedures, and those initially classified as emergencies (35.6% versus 16.6% and 33.3% versus 13.2%, respectively; P < 0.01). Only 51/66 (77.3%) iatrogenic deaths received Coroner's verdicts of misadventure; no verdict of criminal negligence was recorded during the period in question. There appears to have been a steady increase in the number of perioperative deaths reported to the Coroner over the previous triennia (1989 to 1997) for which autopsies were conducted. While this observation may not denote an increase in perioperative morality rates per se, it may be indicative of an increasingly "aggressive" or defensive approach to the clinical management of seriously ill patients, particularly over the past decade. Although the rate of iatrogenic deaths appears to have stabilised, it is too early to say whether this apparent trend will persist in the future. It is perhaps not surprising that the risk of iatrogenic injury appears to increase with the number of interventions performed; however, it is not clear why initial, supposedly elective, interventions should be associated with an apparently greater risk of iatrogenic injury than those classified as emergency procedures. The substantial divergence between the autopsy finding of an iatrogenic death and the corresponding Coroner's verdict of misadventure may be comforting to clinicians, but certainly warrants further examination.

Day-to-Day Heart-Rate Variability Recordings in World-Champion Rowers: Appreciating Unique Athlete Characteristics.

PubMed

Plews, Daniel J; Laursen, Paul B; Buchheit, Martin

2017-05-01

Heart-rate variability (HRV) is a popular tool for monitoring autonomic nervous system status and training adaptation in athletes. It is believed that increases in HRV indicate effective training adaptation, but these are not always apparent in elite athletes. Resting HRV was recorded in 4 elite rowers (rowers A, B, C, and D) over the 7-wk period before their success at the 2015 World Rowing Championships. The natural logarithm of the square root of the mean sum of the squared differences (Ln rMSSD) between R-R intervals, Ln rMSSD:R-R ratio trends, and the Ln-rMSSD-to-R-R-interval relationship were assessed for each championship-winning rower. The time course of change in Ln rMSSD was athlete-dependent, with stagnation and decreases apparent. However, there were consistent substantial reductions in the Ln rMSSD:R-R ratio: rower A, baseline toward wk 5 (-2.35 ± 1.94); rower B, baseline to wk 4 and 5 (-0.41 ± 0.48 and -0.64 ± 0.65, respectively); rower C, baseline to wk 4 (-0.58 ± 0.66); and rower D, baseline to wk 4, 5, and 6 (-1.15 ± 0.91, -0.81 ± 0.74, and -1.43 ± 0.69, respectively). Reductions in Ln rMSSD concurrent with reductions in the Ln rMSSD:R-R ratio are indicative of parasympathetic saturation. Consequently, 3 of 4 rowers displayed substantial increases in parasympathetic activity despite having decreases in Ln rMSSD. These results confirm that a combination of indices should be used to monitor cardiac autonomic activity.

Avian demographic responses to drought and fire: a community-level perspective.

PubMed

Saracco, James F; Fettig, Stephen M; San Miguel, George L; Mehlman, David W; Albert, Steven K

2018-05-22

Drought stress is an important consideration for wildlife in arid and semiarid regions under climate change. Drought can impact plant and animal populations directly, through effects on their physiology, as well as indirectly through effects on vegetation productivity and resource availability, and by creating conditions conducive to secondary disturbance, such as wildfire. We implemented a novel approach to understanding community-level demographic responses of birds and their habitats to these stressors in the context of climate change at 14 study sites in the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States. A large wildfire affecting three of the sites provided a natural experiment for also examining fire effects on vegetation and the bird community. We assessed (1) trends in drought and end-of-century (2071-2100) predicted average drought conditions under mid-range and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios; (2) effects of drought and fire on habitat (vegetation greenness); and (3) effects of drought and fire on community-level avian productivity and adult apparent survival rates. Drought has increased and is expected to increase further at our study sites under climate change. Under spring drought conditions, vegetation greenness and avian productivity declined, while summer drought appeared to negatively affect adult apparent survival rates. Response to fire was mixed; in the year of the fire, avian productivity declined, but was higher than normal for several years post-fire. Our results highlight important links between environmental stressors and avian vital rates that will likely affect population trajectories in this region under climate change. We suggest that the use and continued development of community-level demographic models will provide useful tool for leveraging sparse species-level data to provide multi-species inferences and inform conservation. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Temporal Trends in the Prevalence, Severity, and Localization of Myocardial Ischemia and Necrosis at Myocardial Perfusion Imaging After Myocardial Infarction.

PubMed

Nudi, Francesco; Schillaci, Orazio; Di Belardino, Natale; Versaci, Francesco; Tomai, Fabrizio; Pinto, Annamaria; Neri, Giandomenico; Procaccini, Enrica; Nudi, Alessandro; Frati, Giacomo; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe

2017-10-15

The definition, presentation, and management of myocardial infarction (MI) have changed substantially in the last decade. Whether these changes have impacted on the presence, severity, and localization of necrosis at myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) has not been appraised to date. Subjects undergoing MPI and reporting a history of clinical MI were shortlisted. We focused on the presence, severity, and localization of necrosis at MPI with a retrospective single-center analysis. A total of 10,476 patients were included, distinguishing 5 groups according to the period in which myocardial perfusion scintigraphy had been performed (2004 to 2005, 2006 to 2007, 2008 to 2009, 2010 to 2011, 2012 to 2013). Trend analysis showed over time a significant worsening in baseline features (e.g., age, diabetes mellitus, and Q waves at electrocardiogram), whereas medical therapy and revascularization were offered with increasing frequency. Over the years, there was also a lower prevalence of normal MPI (from 16.8% to 13.6%) and ischemic MPI (from 35.6% to 32.8%), and a higher prevalence of ischemic and necrotic MPI (from 12.0% to 12.7%) or solely necrotic MPI (from 35.7% to 40.9%, p <0.001). Yet the prevalence of severe ischemia decreased over time from 11.4% to 2.0%, with a similar trend for moderate ischemia (from 15.9% to 11.8%, p <0.001). Similarly sobering results were wound for the prevalence of severe necrosis (from 19.8% to 8.2%) and moderate necrosis (from 8.5% to 7.8%, p = 0.028). These trends were largely confirmed at regional level and after propensity score matching. In conclusion, the outlook of stable patients with previous MI has substantially improved in the last decade, with a decrease in the severity of residual myocardial ischemia and necrosis, despite an apparent worsening in baseline features. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decline in tropospheric NO2 and the effects of the 2008-09 economic crisis observed by OMI over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellanos, P.; Boersma, F. F.

2011-12-01

We present a trend analysis of tropospheric NO2 for the time period of 2004-2010. Necessary for monitoring pollution abatement strategies, NO2 trends analyses are often based on surface networks, which suffer from high NO2 biases and spatial representativity issues inherent to the standard monitoring method (thermal reduction of NO2 followed by reaction with ozone and chemiluminescence). Space based NO2 trends are unbiased and self-consistent, but over Europe they have not been as obvious as those observed over North America and East Asia. In this work we exploit the daily NO2 column observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) in order to isolate long-term (timescales greater than one year) variability in NO2 over Europe without imposing a parametric fit to the data. In general, we find between 2005 and 2008, 1-5% per year declines in NO2 concentration in many polluted regions (e.g. Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain), but also 1-5% per year increases over the English Channel and the southern North Sea (a major shipping channel), as well as the United Kingdom, northern France and Eastern Europe. In 2009, NO2 almost exclusively decreased over Europe at a rate of 5-10% per year, coinciding with the abrupt decrease in industrial production and construction prompted by the global economic crisis. By 2010, in many areas the NO2 rate of change returned to pre-2009 levels suggesting economic recovery. We employ a simple fitting model to separate the forcing by meteorological variability, which can influence apparent NO2 trends, from that of NOx emissions. We calculate 1-3% per year NOx emissions reduction rates over most of Europe and an additional 15-30% per year decrease in NOx emissions during the economic crisis time period.

Outcome after introduction of laparoscopic appendectomy in children: A cohort study.

PubMed

Svensson, Jan F; Patkova, Barbora; Almström, Markus; Eaton, Simon; Wester, Tomas

2016-03-01

Acute appendicitis in children is common and the optimal treatment modality is still debated, even if recent data suggest that laparoscopic surgery may result in shorter postoperative length of stay without an increased number of complications. The aim of the study was to compare the outcome of open and laparoscopic appendectomies during a transition period. This was a retrospective cohort study with prospectively collected data. All patients who underwent an operation for suspected appendicitis at the Astrid Lindgren Children's Hospital in Stockholm between 2006 and 2010 were included in the study. 1745 children were included in this study, of whom 1010 had a laparoscopic intervention. There were no significant differences in the rate of postoperative abscesses, wound infections, readmissions or reoperations between the two groups. The median operating time was longer for laparoscopic appendectomy than for open appendectomy, 51 vs. 37minutes (p<0.05). The postoperative length of stay was similar in the two groups. A simple comparison between the groups suggested that laparoscopic appendectomy had a shorter median postoperative length of stay, 43 vs. 57hours (p<0.05). However, there was a trend in time for a shorter postoperative length of stay, and a trend for more of the procedures to be performed laparoscopically over time so on regression analysis, the apparent decrease in length of stay with laparoscopy could be ascribed to the general trend toward decreased length of stay over time, with no specific additional effect of laparoscopy. Our data show no difference in outcome between open and laparoscopic surgery for acute appendicitis in children in regard of complications. The initial assumption that the patients treated with laparoscopic surgery had a shorter postoperative stay was not confirmed with linear regression, which showed that the assumed difference was due only to a trend toward shorter postoperative length of stay over time, regardless of the surgical intervention. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Isotopic source signatures: Impact of regional variability on the δ13CH4 trend and spatial distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feinberg, Aryeh I.; Coulon, Ancelin; Stenke, Andrea; Schwietzke, Stefan; Peter, Thomas

2018-02-01

The atmospheric methane growth rate has fluctuated over the past three decades, signifying variations in methane sources and sinks. Methane isotopic ratios (δ13CH4) differ between emission categories, and can therefore be used to distinguish which methane sources have changed. However, isotopic modelling studies have mainly focused on uncertainties in methane emissions rather than uncertainties in isotopic source signatures. We simulated atmospheric δ13CH4 for the period 1990-2010 using the global chemistry-climate model SOCOL. Empirically-derived regional variability in the isotopic signatures was introduced in a suite of sensitivity simulations. These simulations were compared to a baseline simulation with commonly used global mean isotopic signatures. We investigated coal, natural gas/oil, wetland, livestock, and biomass burning source signatures to determine whether regional variations impact the observed isotopic trend and spatial distribution. Based on recently published source signature datasets, our calculated global mean isotopic signatures are in general lighter than the commonly used values. Trends in several isotopic signatures were also apparent during the period 1990-2010. Tropical livestock emissions grew during the 2000s, introducing isotopically heavier livestock emissions since tropical livestock consume more C4 vegetation than midlatitude livestock. Chinese coal emissions, which are isotopically heavy compared to other coals, increase during the 2000s leading to higher global values of δ13CH4 for coal emissions. EDGAR v4.2 emissions disagree with the observed atmospheric isotopic trend for almost all simulations, confirming past doubts about this emissions inventory. The agreement between the modelled and observed δ13CH4 interhemispheric differences improves when regional source signatures are used. Even though the simulated results are highly dependent on the choice of methane emission inventories, they emphasize that the commonly used global mean signatures are inadequate. Regional isotopic signatures should be employed in modelling studies that try to constrain methane emission inventories.

Going up or coming down? The changing phases of the lung cancer epidemic from 1967 to 1999 in the 15 European Union countries.

PubMed

Bray, F; Tyczynski, J E; Parkin, D M

2004-01-01

Lung cancer, the most common cause of cancer death in the European Union (EU), continues to have an enormous impact on the health experience of the men and women living in the constituent countries. Information on the course of the lung cancer epidemic is essential in order to formulate an effective cancer control policy. This paper examines recent trends in lung cancer mortality rates in men and women in each of the 15 countries, comparing cross-sectional rates of death in younger (aged 30-64 years) and older populations (aged 65 years or over), and the age, period of death, and birth cohort influences in the younger age group. The latter analysis establishes the importance of year of birth, related to modifications in the tobacco habit among recently born generations. The stage of evolution of the lung cancer epidemic varies markedly by sex and country in terms of the direction, magnitude, and phase of development of national trends. In males, there is some consistency in the direction of the trends between EU countries, declines are apparent in most countries, at least in younger men, with rates in older men either reaching a plateau, or also falling. In younger persons, a decreasing risk of lung cancer death reflects changes in successive birth cohorts, due to modifications in the smoking habit from generation to generation, although these developments are in very different phases across countries. Portugal is the exception to the male trends; there are increases in mortality in both age groups, with little sign of a slowing down by birth cohort. In women, there are unambiguous upsurges in rates seen in younger and older women in almost all EU countries in recent decades, and little sign that the epidemic has or will soon reach a peak. The exceptions are the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland, where lung cancer death rates are now declining in younger women and stabilising in older women, reflecting a declining risk in women born since about 1950. It is too early to say whether the observed plateau or decline in rates in women born very recently in several countries is real or random. To ascertain whether recent trends in lung cancer mortality will continue, trends in cigarette consumption should also be evaluated. Where data are available by country, the proportion of adult male smokers has, by and large, fallen steadily in the last five decades. In women, recent smoking trends are downwards in Belgium, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands, although in Austria and Spain, large increases in smoking prevalence amongst adults are emerging. Unambiguous public health messages must be effectively conveyed to the inhabitants of the EU if the lung cancer epidemic is to be controlled. It is imperative that anti-tobacco strategies urgently target women living in the EU, in order to halt their rapidly increasing risk of lung cancer, and prevent unnecessary, premature deaths among future generations of women.

Assessment of wildland fire impacts on watershed annual water yield: Analytical framework and case studies in the United States

DOE PAGES

Hallema, Dennis W.; Sun, Ge; Caldwell, Peter V.; ...

2016-11-29

More than 50% of water supplies in the conterminous United States originate on forestland or rangeland and are potentially under increasing stress as a result of larger and more severe wildfires. Little is known, however, about the long-term impacts of fire on annual water yield and the role of climate variability within this context. We here propose a framework for evaluating wildland fire impacts on streamflow that combines double-mass analysis with new methods (change point analysis, climate elasticity modeling, and process-based modeling) to distinguish between multiyear fire and climate impacts. The framework captures a wide range of fire types, watershedsmore » characteristics, and climate conditions using streamflow data, as opposed to other approaches requiring paired watersheds. The process is illustrated with three case studies. A watershed in Arizona experienced a +266% increase in annual water yield in the 5 years after a wildfire, where +219% was attributed to wildfire and +24% to precipitation trends. In contrast, a California watershed had a lower (–64%) post-fire net water yield, comprised of enhanced flow (+38%) attributed to wildfire offset (–102%) by lower precipitation in the post-fire period. Changes in streamflow within a watershed in South Carolina had no apparent link to periods of prescribed burning but matched a very wet winter and reports of storm damage. As a result, the presented framework is unique in its ability to detect and quantify fire or other disturbances, even if the date or nature of the disturbance event is uncertain, and regardless of precipitation trends.« less

Assessment of wildland fire impacts on watershed annual water yield: Analytical framework and case studies in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hallema, Dennis W.; Sun, Ge; Caldwell, Peter V.

More than 50% of water supplies in the conterminous United States originate on forestland or rangeland and are potentially under increasing stress as a result of larger and more severe wildfires. Little is known, however, about the long-term impacts of fire on annual water yield and the role of climate variability within this context. We here propose a framework for evaluating wildland fire impacts on streamflow that combines double-mass analysis with new methods (change point analysis, climate elasticity modeling, and process-based modeling) to distinguish between multiyear fire and climate impacts. The framework captures a wide range of fire types, watershedsmore » characteristics, and climate conditions using streamflow data, as opposed to other approaches requiring paired watersheds. The process is illustrated with three case studies. A watershed in Arizona experienced a +266% increase in annual water yield in the 5 years after a wildfire, where +219% was attributed to wildfire and +24% to precipitation trends. In contrast, a California watershed had a lower (–64%) post-fire net water yield, comprised of enhanced flow (+38%) attributed to wildfire offset (–102%) by lower precipitation in the post-fire period. Changes in streamflow within a watershed in South Carolina had no apparent link to periods of prescribed burning but matched a very wet winter and reports of storm damage. As a result, the presented framework is unique in its ability to detect and quantify fire or other disturbances, even if the date or nature of the disturbance event is uncertain, and regardless of precipitation trends.« less

Repeated exposure to antibiotics in infancy: a predisposing factor for juvenile idiopathic arthritis or a sign of this group's greater susceptibility to infections?

PubMed

Arvonen, Miika; Virta, Lauri J; Pokka, Tytti; Kröger, Liisa; Vähäsalo, Paula

2015-03-01

Previous exposure to antibiotics has been associated with the pathogenesis of several autoimmune diseases. Our objective was to explore whether childhood exposure to antibiotics would be associated with the risk of developing juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). The material was collected from national registers containing all children born in 2000-2010 in Finland and diagnosed with JIA by the end of December 2012 (n = 1298) and appropriate controls (n = 5179) matched for age, sex, and place of birth. All purchases of antibiotics were collected from birth until the index date (i.e., the date of special reimbursement for JIA medications). A conditional logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association between the exposure to antibiotics and the risk of JIA. The risk of JIA increased with the number of antibiotic purchases from birth to the index date: for ≥ 1 purchases versus none, OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.3-1.9 with an upward trend in OR (p < 0.001). Antibiotic groups lincosamides and cephalosporins showed the strongest association with JIA (OR 6.6, 95% CI 3.7-11.7, and OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.4-1.8, respectively). Overall exposure to antibiotics before 2 years of age was associated with an increased risk of JIA (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.6), with the trend test of OR (p < 0.001). Previous early and repeated exposure to antibiotics may predispose individuals to develop JIA. Alternatively, the apparent association may reflect shared susceptibility to infections and JIA.

GAMM's as a New Tool for Evaluating Spatiotemporal Distributions of Nitrate and Bacteria in an Agricultural Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cey, E. E.; Mellor, A. F.

2015-12-01

Generalized additive mixed models (GAMM's) are flexible regression models that are increasingly used in ecological and environmental studies to assess spatial and temporal trends in complex monitoring data. GAMM's hold promise for analysis of spatially and temporally correlated hydrogeologic data, but have been used only sparingly. Here we employed GAMM's to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of pathogen indicators (E. coli and total coliform [TC]) and nitrate in the vulnerable Abbotsford-Sumas aquifer (ASA), and to explore potential relationships with hydrologic and climatic drivers, such as precipitation, streamflow, and groundwater level and temperature. A total of 46 wells sampled over a one year period showed more than 50% of samples exceeded 10 mg-N/L for nitrate. E. coli detections in groundwater were infrequent (4 of 385 total samples) and attributed mainly to surface water-groundwater connections. TC was detected frequently in groundwater (70% of samples) and the widespread TC distribution across the ASA could not be attributed solely to surface water connectivity. GAMM's showed that increased TC values in the wet season were most strongly related to groundwater temperatures and levels, while precipitation and well location were weaker (but still significant) predictors. In contrast, seasonal trends in nitrate were not significantly related to hydrologic forcings. Instead, nitrate concentrations across the aquifer were controlled by well location and depth, likely due to spatially variable nitrogen loading and localized geochemical attenuation. Major differences in nitrate and bacterial loading to the ASA were apparent in this study, and management strategies specific to each nonpoint source contaminant are recommended for improved source water protection.

Changes in apparent duration follow shifts in perceptual timing

PubMed Central

Bruno, Aurelio; Ayhan, Inci; Johnston, Alan

2015-01-01

It is well established that the apparent duration of moving visual objects is greater at higher as compared to slower speeds. Here we report the effects of acceleration and deceleration on the perceived duration of a drifting grating with average speed kept constant (10°/s).For acceleration, increasing the speed range progressively reduced perceived duration. The magnitude of apparent duration compression was determined by speed rather than temporal frequency and was proportional to speed range (independent of standard duration) rather than acceleration. The perceived duration reduction was also proportional to the standard length. The effects of increases and decreases in speed were highly asymmetric. Reducing speed through the interval induced a moderate increase in perceived duration. These results could not be explained by changes in apparent onset or offset or differences in perceived average speed between intervals containing increasing speed and intervals containing decreasing speed. Paradoxically, for intervals combining increasing speed and decreasing speed, compression only occurred when increasing speed occurred in the second half of the interval. We show that this pattern of results in the duration domain was concomitant with changes in the reported direction of apparent motion of Gaussian blobs, embedded in intervals of increasing or decreasing speed, that could be predicted from adaptive changes in the temporal impulse response function. We detected similar changes after flicker adaptation, suggesting that the two effects might be linked through changes in the temporal tuning of visual filters. PMID:26024450

Block 25 field, Chandeleur Sound, St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woltz, D.

1980-01-01

Two pay sands occur on a subtle, east-west elongated, rollover structure situated on the downthrown side of a down-to-the-coast growth fault. The 4800 Ft sand has a total original hydrocarbons column of ca. 30 ft, and the 5200 ft or BB sand has a total, original hydrocarbon column of ca. 55 ft. and is the primary producer in the field. The down-to-the-coast fault which trends east-west and lies on the northern side of the field apparently has contributed to the trapping of hydrocarbons in the structure. The geometry of the BB sand suggests that it is a bar type deposit.more » Apparently, hydrocarbons present in the pay sands have not been derived from the sediments directly above or below the reservoirs. The oil accumulated in the sand reservoirs probably migrated into the block 25 structure from peripheral areas.« less

Spatial and temporal analyses of metrics of tuberculosis infection in badgers (Meles meles) from the Republic of Ireland: Trends in apparent prevalence.

PubMed

Byrne, A W; Kenny, K; Fogarty, U; O'Keeffe, J J; More, S J; McGrath, G; Teeling, M; Martin, S W; Dohoo, I R

2015-12-01

Badgers are a wildlife host of Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), and an important contributor to the epidemiology of bTB in cattle in Ireland and Britain. Repeated culling of badgers in high prevalence cattle bTB areas has been used in the Republic of Ireland as one tool to reduce intra- and interspecific transmission of M. bovis. We assessed factors that influenced infection prevalence of culled badgers from 2009 to 2012 (n=4948) where spatial, temporal and intrinsic factor data were available using multivariable modelling. Prevalence appeared higher in western areas than eastern areas of Ireland and badgers were more likely to be test-positive if caught at a sett (burrow system) which was close to other infected setts (spatial clustering of infection). There was a significant positive association between badger test-status and cattle prevalence of M. bovis infection at a spatial scale of 1km around setts. Badgers were more likely to be deemed test positive if they were male (OR: 1.9) or a parous female (OR: 1.7), compared to a female who had never conceived. Our results are consistent with different groups within badger populations having differential exposures and therefore infection risk (for example, parous vs. non-parous females). Furthermore, bTB clusters within the badger population, with greater risk to badgers in setts that are closest to other infected setts. The effective scale of the association of bTB risk between badger and cattle populations may be relatively large in Ireland. Our data indicate that the overall trend in prevalence of M. bovis infection in badgers has decreased in Ireland (P<0.001) while controlling for significant confounders over the study period, and follows a longer temporal trend from 2007 to 2013, where unadjusted apparent prevalence declined from 26% to 11% during 2007 to mid-2011, followed by a stable trend between 9 and 11% thereafter (n=10,267). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trend analysis of the wave storminess: the wave direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.; Mösso, C.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

2009-09-01

Climate change has an important role in the current scientific research because of its possible future negative consequences. Concerning the climate change in the coastal engineering field, the apparent sea level rise is one of the key parameters as well as the wave height and the wave direction temporal variations. According to the IPCC (2007), during the last century the sea level has been increasing with a mean rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm/yr. However, at local/regional scale the tendency significantly differs from the global trend since the local pressure and wind field variations become more relevant. This appears to be particularly significant in semi-enclosed areas in the Mediterranean Sea (Cushman-Roisin et al., 2001). Even though the existing unsolved questions related to the sea level rise, the uncertainty concerning the wave height is even larger, in which stormy conditions are especially important because they are closely related to processes such as coastal erosion, flooding, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to identify possible existing tendencies of storm related parameters. In many studies, only the maximum wave height and storm duration are analysed, remaining the wave direction in a second term. Note that a possible rotation of the mean wave direction may involve severe consequences since most beach and harbour defence structures have been designed assuming a constant predominant wave incidence. Liste et al. (2004) illustrated this fact with an example in which a rotation of only 2 degrees of the mean energy flux vector could produce a beach retreat of 20 m. Another possible consequence would be a decrease of the harbour operability: increased frequency of storms in the same direction as the harbour entrance orientation would influence the navigability. The present study, which focuses in the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean Sea), aims to improve the present knowledge of the wave storminess variations at regional scale, specially focusing on the wave directionality. It is based on 44 year hindcast model data (1958-2001) of the HIPOCAS project, enabling to work with a longer time series compared to the existing measured ones. 41 nodes of this database are used, containing 3 hourly simulated data of significant wave height and wave direction, among other parameters. For storm definition, the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method is used with some additional duration requirements in order to analyse statistically independent events (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2006). Including both wave height and storm duration, the wave storminess is characterised by the energy content (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2004), being in turn log-transformed because of its positive scale. Separately, the wave directionality itself is analysed in terms of different sectors and approaching their probability of occurrence by counting events and using Bayesian inference (Agresti, 2002). Therefore, the original data is transformed into compositional data and, before performing the trend analysis, the isometric logratio (ilr) transformation (Egozcue et al., 2003) is done. In general, the trend analysis methodology consists in two steps: 1) trend detection and 2) trend quantification. For 1) the Mann Kendall test is used in order to identify the nodes with significant trend. For these selected nodes, the trend quantification is done, comparing two methods: 1) a simple linear regression analysis complemented with the bootstrap technique and 2) a Bayesian analysis, assuming normally distributed data with linearly increasing mean. Preliminary results show no significant trend for both annual mean and maximum energy content except for some nodes located to the Northern Catalan coast. Regarding the wave direction (but not only considering stormy conditions) there is a tendency of North direction to decrease whereas South and Southeast direction seems to increase.

Macroinvertebrate communities evaluated prior to and following a channel restoration project in Silver Creek, Blaine County, Idaho, 2001-16

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacCoy, Dorene E.; Short, Terry M.

2017-11-22

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Blaine County and The Nature Conservancy, evaluated the status of macroinvertebrate communities prior to and following a channel restoration project in Silver Creek, Blaine County, Idaho. The objective of the evaluation was to determine whether 2014 remediation efforts to restore natural channel conditions in an impounded area of Silver Creek caused declines in local macroinvertebrate communities. Starting in 2001 and ending in 2016, macroinvertebrates were sampled every 3 years at two long-term trend sites and sampled seasonally (spring, summer, and autumn) in 2013, 2015, and 2016 at seven synoptic sites. Trend-site communities were collected from natural stream-bottom substrates to represent locally established macroinvertebrate assemblages. Synoptic site communities were sampled using artificial (multi-plate) substrates to represent recently colonized (4–6 weeks) assemblages. Statistical summaries of spatial and temporal patterns in macroinvertebrate taxonomic composition at both trend and synoptic sites were completed.The potential effect of the restoration project on resident macroinvertebrate populations was determined by comparing the following community assemblage metrics:Total taxonomic richness (taxa richness);Total macroinvertebrate abundance (total abundance);Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) richness;EPT abundance;Simpson’s diversity; andSimpson’s evenness for periods prior to and following restoration.A significant decrease in one or more metric values in the period following stream channel restoration was the basis for determining impairment to the macroinvertebrate communities in Silver Creek.Comparison of pre-restoration (2001–13) and post‑restoration (2016) macroinvertebrate community composition at trend sites determined that no significant decreases occurred in any metric parameter for communities sampled in 2016. Taxa and EPT richness of colonized assemblages at synoptic sites increased significantly from pre-restoration in 2013 to post-restoration in 2015 and 2016. Similarly, total and EPT abundances at synoptic sites showed non-significant increases from 2013 to 2015 and 2016. Significant seasonal differences in macroinvertebrate assemblages were apparent at synoptic site locations and likely reflected typical life-history patterns of increased insect emergence and development in the late spring and early summer months. Taxa and EPT richness were each significantly higher in spring and summer than in autumn, and total abundances were significantly higher in spring than in summer and autumn. No significant differences in community diversity or evenness of colonized communities were noted at synoptic site locations between pre- and post-restoration years or among seasons. Select community-metric results from the trend- and synoptic‑site sampling indicated that the Silver Creek restoration effort in 2014 did not result in a significant decline in resident macroinvertebrate communities.

Production of thermal insulation blocks from bottom ash of fluidized bed combustion system.

PubMed

Mandal, A K; Sinha, O P

2017-08-01

The issues of disposal and environmental problems are increased by the generation of bottom ash from the thermal power plants day by day; hence, its recycling is required. The present study aimed to make thermal insulation blocks using as raw material bottom ash and iron ore slime as a binder and to characterize their engineering properties. Two different fineness values of bottom ash were considered with varying amounts of iron ore slime (0-10%) to make the blocks. Blocks were dried followed by firing at 1000, 1100 and 1200°C, respectively. Cold crushing strength, density and thermal conductivity of these fired blocks showed increasing behaviour with firing temperature, fineness of bottom ash and iron ore slime content. In contrast, a reverse trend was observed in the case of porosity. With increasing firing temperature, the formation of lower melting phases like iron silicate followed by iron aluminium silicate was observed, which imparts the strength inside the blocks. The coarser particles of bottom ash increase the interparticle spaces, which enhances the apparent porosity, resulting in higher thermal insulation property in the blocks. Blocks having better thermal insulation property could be possible to make effectively from coarse bottom ash by adding iron ore slime as a binder.

Trends in atmospheric heavy metals abundances over the Russian part of EMEP region in 1990-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Konkova, Elizaveta S.

2016-04-01

The European part of Russia is covered by two atmospheric environment monitoring networks established in the 1970s-1980s to monitor and evaluate anthropogenic pollution of regional/background natural environment. These are EMEP - European Monitoring and Evaluation Program of transboundary atmospheric pollutant transmission (under the UN ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution) and IBMoN - Integrated Background Monitoring Network of environmental toxic pollution (prior to 1990 under the UNEP/GEMS supervision, mostly for East European countries). IGCE laboratories operate as analytical centers for both networks. Historically, IBMoN was partly implemented at EMEP sites to support this international program with additional (optional) data. IBMoN datasets were selected for analysis of atmospheric heavy metal trends in the Russian territory of EMEP region for the last twenty three years due to more intensive operation up to now [1, 2]. Atmospheric heavy metals are collected at the remote sites with the air samples of atmospheric aerosols deposited on Petryanov's cellulose acetate filters through high-volume pumping during 24 hours. To measure lead and cadmium content, filters are transferred into the solution to determine total amounts by the Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS) with flameless atomization. Precipitation samples (collected monthly with acidic preserving) are directly injected into the AAS detection module after filtering. The sampling procedure, special processing and analytical techniques allow us to measure concentrations at substantially low levels [3, 2]. In this study we investigate the long term trends of lead and cadmium in air and precipitation at two stations, viz. Astrakhan Biosphere Reserve (46°N, 49°E) and Danki (Oka-Terrace Biosphere Reserve, 54.9°N, 37.8°E). Following the EMEP general recommendations, the evaluation was done for two continuous periods covering 1990-2001 and 2002-2012, respectively. We apply the common methodology recommended by WMO/EMEP Task Force for trend evaluation, implemented in software developed and distributed by EMEP [4]. This methodology allows approximation of apparent trends using the superposition of the exponential (main) and residual components obtained using the ad hoc trend regression model. We further use so-called reduction parameters to investigate quantitatively the nature of trends: The total over the period (Rtot) and annual average (Rave), with the latter corresponding to increasing trend at negative values. Overall, temporal tendencies of airborne cadmium and lead demonstrate similar behaviour, however on top of different average concentration levels. For both species our analysis confirms the increase in air and precipitation abundances at the regional and remote sites over the European part of Russia for the period of 2002-2012. References: 1. Gromov S.A., and S.G. Paramonov, 2015. Current status and prospects for the development of integrated background monitoring of environmental pollution. Problems of Ecological Monitoring and Ecosystem Modelling, v. XXVI, N 1, p. 205-221. 2. Rovinsky F.Ya. (Ed.), 1989. Analytical review of environmental pollution with heavy metals in background areas of the CMEA member countries (1982-1989). Moscow, Gidrometeoizdat, 88 p. 3. Izrael Yu.A., and F.Ya. Rovinsky, 1991. Integrated background monitoring of environmental pollution in mid-latitude Eurasia. WMO Global Atmospheric Watch No 72, WMO/TD No. 434, 104 p. 4. MSC-East, 2015. Methodology of trend analysis of air quality data (http://www.msceast.org/documents/ Methodology_of_trend_analysis.pdf).

Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Tummon, Fiona; Haigh, Joanna D.

2017-10-01

Observations of stratospheric ozone from multiple instruments now span three decades; combining these into composite datasets allows long-term ozone trends to be estimated. Recently, several ozone composites have been published, but trends disagree by latitude and altitude, even between composites built upon the same instrument data. We confirm that the main causes of differences in decadal trend estimates lie in (i) steps in the composite time series when the instrument source data changes and (ii) artificial sub-decadal trends in the underlying instrument data. These artefacts introduce features that can alias with regressors in multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis; both can lead to inaccurate trend estimates. Here, we aim to remove these artefacts using Bayesian methods to infer the underlying ozone time series from a set of composites by building a joint-likelihood function using a Gaussian-mixture density to model outliers introduced by data artefacts, together with a data-driven prior on ozone variability that incorporates knowledge of problems during instrument operation. We apply this Bayesian self-calibration approach to stratospheric ozone in 10° bands from 60° S to 60° N and from 46 to 1 hPa (˜ 21-48 km) for 1985-2012. There are two main outcomes: (i) we independently identify and confirm many of the data problems previously identified, but which remain unaccounted for in existing composites; (ii) we construct an ozone composite, with uncertainties, that is free from most of these problems - we call this the BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) composite. To analyse the new BASIC composite, we use dynamical linear modelling (DLM), which provides a more robust estimate of long-term changes through Bayesian inference than MLR. BASIC and DLM, together, provide a step forward in improving estimates of decadal trends. Our results indicate a significant recovery of ozone since 1998 in the upper stratosphere, of both northern and southern midlatitudes, in all four composites analysed, and particularly in the BASIC composite. The BASIC results also show no hemispheric difference in the recovery at midlatitudes, in contrast to an apparent feature that is present, but not consistent, in the four composites. Our overall conclusion is that it is possible to effectively combine different ozone composites and account for artefacts and drifts, and that this leads to a clear and significant result that upper stratospheric ozone levels have increased since 1998, following an earlier decline.

Late Holocene methane rise caused by orbitally controlled increase in tropical sources.

PubMed

Singarayer, Joy S; Valdes, Paul J; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Nelson, Sarah; Beerling, David J

2011-02-03

Considerable debate surrounds the source of the apparently 'anomalous' increase of atmospheric methane concentrations since the mid-Holocene (5,000 years ago) compared to previous interglacial periods as recorded in polar ice core records. Proposed mechanisms for the rise in methane concentrations relate either to methane emissions from anthropogenic early rice cultivation or an increase in natural wetland emissions from tropical or boreal sources. Here we show that our climate and wetland simulations of the global methane cycle over the last glacial cycle (the past 130,000 years) recreate the ice core record and capture the late Holocene increase in methane concentrations. Our analyses indicate that the late Holocene increase results from natural changes in the Earth's orbital configuration, with enhanced emissions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics linked to precession-induced modification of seasonal precipitation. Critically, our simulations capture the declining trend in methane concentrations at the end of the last interglacial period (115,000-130,000 years ago) that was used to diagnose the Holocene methane rise as unique. The difference between the two time periods results from differences in the size and rate of regional insolation changes and the lack of glacial inception in the Holocene. Our findings also suggest that no early agricultural sources are required to account for the increase in methane concentrations in the 5,000 years before the industrial era.

Dramatic Contrasts in Arctic vs Antarctic Sea Ice Trends in 3-D Visualizations and Compilations of Monthly Record Highs and Lows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2016-01-01

New visualizations dramatically display the decreases in Arctic sea ice coverage over the years 1979-2015, apparent in each month of the year, with not a single record high in ice extents occurring in any month since 1986, a time period with 75 monthly record lows. Results are less dramatic in the Antarctic, but intriguingly in the opposite direction, with only 6 record lows since 1986 and 45 record highs.

Preliminary results of potassium-argon age determinations from the Ugashik quadrangle, Alaska Peninsula: A section in The United States Geological Survey in Alaska: Accomplishments during 1980

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Frederic H.; Shew, Nora B.

1982-01-01

Early and preliminary results of potassiumargon dating work on samples from 12 sites in the Ugashik quadrangle indicate a continuation of the geologic trends seen in the Chignik and Sutwik Island quadrangles to the south (Wilson, 1980). Tertiary volcanic and hypabyssal rocks apparently fall into two age groups: early Tertiary-late Eocene to earliest Miocene and late Tertiary and Quaternary-late Miocene to Holocene (fig. 53).

Factors influencing trends of polychlorinated naphthalenes and other dioxin-like compounds in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) from Lake Ontario, North America (1979-2004).

PubMed

Gewurtz, Sarah B; Lega, Rocsana; Crozier, Patrick W; Whittle, D Michael; Fayez, Laila; Reiner, Eric J; Helm, Paul A; Marvin, Chris H; Tomy, Gregg T

2009-05-01

Concentrations of polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) were determined in archived lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) from Lake Ontario, North America, collected between 1979 and 2004 to evaluate their temporal trends and the factors influencing their trends. Concentrations of PCNs, as well as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), and non- and mono-ortho-substituted polychlorinated biphenyls (DL-PCBs), which were measured for comparative purposes, declined by eight-, seven-, and fivefold, respectively, between 1979 and 2004. Apparent elimination rate constants (k2) were calculated as the slopes of the regression lines of concentration versus time for PCN, DL-PCB, and PCDD/F congeners to compare the rate of decrease among congeners within and between compound classes. The k2 values for PCNs that had two pairs or three adjacent carbons unsubstituted with chlorine (congeners that can be biotransformed by vertebrates) were not significantly different from zero, indicating no decline in fish. For PCN congeners having no adjacent carbons unsubstituted with chlorine, the k2 values generally increased with hydrophobicity and degree of chlorination. This pattern differed from that of PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs and from previous findings for non-DL-PCBs, for which the rate of contaminant decline decreased with hydrophobicity, and the pattern also differed from expectations based on thermodynamics. Differences in the rate of decline of PCN congeners may be caused by changes in source or mixture formulations over time and/or metabolic dechlorination of the less stable, higher-chlorinated PCNs 73, 74, and 75 to lower-chlorinated congeners. Based on suggested dioxin toxic equivalency factors, PCN concentrations in these whole lake trout may be sufficient to trigger consumption restrictions in Ontario, Canada, and our results suggest that PCNs merit incorporation into monitoring and assessment programs.

Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary in the Antarctic: Climatic cooling precedes biotic crisis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stott, Lowell D.; Kennett, James P.

1988-01-01

Stable isotopic investigations were conducted on calcareous microfossils across two deep sea Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary sequences on Maud Rise, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. The boundary is taken at the level of massive extinctions in calcareous planktonic microfossils, and coincides with a sharp lithologic change from pure calcareous ooze to calcareous ooze with a large volcanic clay component. The uppermost Maestrichtian is marked by a long-term decrease in delta value of 0 to 18 which spans most of the lower and middle A. mayaroensis Zone and represents a warming trend which culminated in surface water temperatures of about 16 C. At approximately 3 meters below the K-T boundary this warming trend terminates abruptly and benthic and planktonic isotopic records exhibit a rapid increase in delta value of 0 to 18 that continues up to the K-T boundary. The trend towards cooler surface water temperatures stops abruptly at the K-T boundary and delta value of 0 to 18 values remain relatively stable through the Paleocene. Comparison of the Antarctic sequence with the previously documented deep sea records in the South Atlantic reveal shifts of similar magnitude in the latest Maestrichtian. It is indicated that the Southern Ocean underwent the most significant, and apparently permanent, climatic change. The latest Cretaceous oxygen isotopic shift recorded at Maud Rise and other deep sea sites is similar in magnitude to large positive delta valve of 0 to 18 shifts in the middle Eocene, at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary and in the middle Miocene that marked large scale climatic transitions which ultimately lead to cryospheric development of the Antarctic. The climatic shift at the end of the Cretaceous represents one of the most significant climatic transitions recorded in the latest Phanerozoic and had a profound effect on global climate as well as oceanic circulation.

Short-duration beta-alanine supplementation increases training volume and reduces subjective feelings of fatigue in college football players.

PubMed

Hoffman, Jay R; Ratamess, Nicholas A; Faigenbaum, Avery D; Ross, Ryan; Kang, Jie; Stout, Jeffrey R; Wise, John A

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of 30 days of beta-alanine supplementation in collegiate football players on anaerobic performance measures. Subjects were randomly divided into a supplement (beta-alanine group [BA], 4.5 g x d(-1) of beta-alanine) or placebo (placebo group [P], 4.5 g x d(-1) of maltodextrin) group. Supplementation began 3 weeks before preseason football training camp and continued for an additional 9 days during camp. Performance measures included a 60-second Wingate anaerobic power test and 3 line drills (200-yd shuttle runs with a 2-minute rest between sprints) assessed on day 1 of training camp. Training logs recorded resistance training volumes, and subjects completed questionnaires on subjective feelings of soreness, fatigue, and practice intensity. No difference was seen in fatigue rate in the line drill, but a trend (P = .07) was observed for a lower fatigue rate for BA compared with P during the Wingate anaerobic power test. A significantly higher training volume was seen for BA in the bench press exercise, and a trend (P = .09) for a greater training volume was seen for all resistance exercise sessions. In addition, subjective feelings of fatigue were significantly lower for BA than P. In conclusion, despite a trend toward lower fatigue rates during 60 seconds of maximal exercise, 3 weeks of beta-alanine supplementation did not result in significant improvements in fatigue rates during high-intensity anaerobic exercise. However, higher training volumes and lower subjective feelings of fatigue in BA indicated that as duration of supplementation continued, the efficacy of beta-alanine supplementation in highly trained athletes became apparent.

Longitudinal evaluation of a World Wide Web-based antimicrobial stewardship program: assessing factors associated with approval patterns and trends over time.

PubMed

Venugopal, Vidya; Lehmann, Christoph U; Diener-West, Marie; Agwu, Allison L

2014-02-01

The Johns Hopkins Children's Medical and Surgery Center developed a Web-based Antimicrobial Stewardship Program (ASP) in 2005. The present study aimed to assess longitudinal antimicrobial request and approval patterns for this ASP. We analyzed a total of 16,229 antimicrobial requests for 3,542 patients between June 1, 2005, and June 30, 2009. Antimicrobial approval was the outcome of interest. We assessed gaming by studying trends in automatically approved requests. Nonparametric tests for trend were performed to detect changes in approval patterns. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with approval. The vast majority (91.3%) of antimicrobial requests were approved, with an increase of 6.1% over time (P < .01). Renewal requests were more likely than primary requests (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45-2.04) to be approved. Antiviral requests had higher odds of approval than antibiotic requests (aOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.04-1.56). Compared with requests by medical services, requests by surgical services had lower odds of approval (aOR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.59-0.83), whereas pediatric intensive care requests had higher odds of approval (aOR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.00-1.40). The number of auto-approved requests remained consistent. The Web-based ASP allows management of a large number of antimicrobial requests, without apparent gaming. Observed differences in approval patterns based on patient, requestor, and antimicrobial factors may inform the development of ASPs and evaluation of provider education and training. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Seasonal Distribution and Historic Trends in Abundance of White Sharks, Carcharodon carcharias, in the Western North Atlantic Ocean

PubMed Central

Curtis, Tobey H.; McCandless, Camilla T.; Carlson, John K.; Skomal, Gregory B.; Kohler, Nancy E.; Natanson, Lisa J.; Burgess, George H.; Hoey, John J.; Pratt, Harold L.

2014-01-01

Despite recent advances in field research on white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) in several regions around the world, opportunistic capture and sighting records remain the primary source of information on this species in the northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA). Previous studies using limited datasets have suggested a precipitous decline in the abundance of white sharks from this region, but considerable uncertainty in these studies warrants additional investigation. This study builds upon previously published data combined with recent unpublished records and presents a synthesis of 649 confirmed white shark records from the NWA compiled over a 210-year period (1800-2010), resulting in the largest white shark dataset yet compiled from this region. These comprehensive records were used to update our understanding of their seasonal distribution, relative abundance trends, habitat use, and fisheries interactions. All life stages were present in continental shelf waters year-round, but median latitude of white shark occurrence varied seasonally. White sharks primarily occurred between Massachusetts and New Jersey during summer and off Florida during winter, with broad distribution along the coast during spring and fall. The majority of fishing gear interactions occurred with rod and reel, longline, and gillnet gears. Historic abundance trends from multiple sources support a significant decline in white shark abundance in the 1970s and 1980s, but there have been apparent increases in abundance since the 1990s when a variety of conservation measures were implemented. Though the white shark's inherent vulnerability to exploitation warrants continued protections, our results suggest a more optimistic outlook for the recovery of this iconic predator in the Atlantic. PMID:24918579

Ethylene dibromide (EDB) trends in the upper Floridan Aquifer, Seminole County, Georgia, October 1981 to November 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

McConnell, J.B.

1988-01-01

Results of an investigation to assess the persistence and trends of ethylene dibromide (EDB) in the Upper Floridan aquifer, in Georgia indicate that in November 1987, EDB was present in the groundwater 4 years after it was last applied as a soil fumigant in the intensively farmed area of central Seminole County. At that time, EDB was detected in water samples from one domestic well and four irrigation wells. Concentrations ranged from less than 0.01 micrograms/L to 3.3 micrograms/L. The investigation in November 1987 revealed the groundwater contamination was limited to the 4-sq-mi area in the vicinity of Buck Hole, a sinkhole in a swampy depression in the central part of the County. In three of the five wells in which EDB was detected, concentrations have not changed significantly since August 1983. However, in one irrigation well near Buck Hole, the concentration decreased from 110 to 0.7 microgram/L since October 1981. In another irrigation well near Buck Hole, the concentration decreased from 26 to about 2.5 microgram/L during that period. The groundwater level data indicate that from Buck Hole, the hydraulic gradient in the Upper Floridan aquifer is about 2.8 ft/mi toward the east. However, the movement of EDB from the area of relatively high concentration near Buck Hole in the direction of inferred flow lines is not apparent. Although concentration gradients were not detected along flow lines, the movement of water induced by pumping wells W4 and W5 produced short-term decreasing and increasing trends in EDB Concentrations in wells W4 and W5, respectively. (USGS)

On the expected relationships among apparent stress, static stress drop, effective shear fracture energy, and efficiency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeler, N.M.; Wong, T.-F.; Hickman, S.H.

2003-01-01

We consider expected relationships between apparent stress ??a and static stress drop ????s using a standard energy balance and find ??a = ????s (0.5 - ??), where ?? is stress overshoot. A simple implementation of this balance is to assume overshoot is constant; then apparent stress should vary linearly with stress drop, consistent with spectral theories (Brune, 1970) and dynamic crack models (Madariaga, 1976). Normalizing this expression by the static stress drop defines an efficiency ??sw = ??sa/????s as follows from Savage and Wood (1971). We use this measure of efficiency to analyze data from one of a number of observational studies that find apparent stress to increase with seismic moment, namely earthquakes recorded in the Cajon Pass borehole by Abercrombie (1995). Increases in apparent stress with event size could reflect an increase in seismic efficiency; however, ??sw for the Cajon earthquakes shows no such increase and is approximately constant over the entire moment range. Thus, apparent stress and stress drop co-vary, as expected from the energy balance at constant overshoot. The median value of ??sw for the Cajon earthquakes is four times lower than ??sw for laboratory events. Thus, these Cajon-recorded earthquakes have relatively low and approximately constant efficiency. As the energy balance requires ??sw = 0.5 - ??, overshoot can be estimated directly from the Savage-Wood efficiency; overshoot is positive for Cajon Pass earthquakes. Variations in apparent stress with seismic moment for these earthquakes result primarily from systematic variations in static stress drop with seismic moment and do not require a relative decrease in sliding resistance with increasing event size (dynamic weakening). Based on the comparison of field and lab determinations of the Savage-Wood efficiency, we suggest the criterion ??sw > 0.3 as a test for dynamic weakening in excess of that seen in the lab.

Decadal trend of precipitation and temperature patterns and impacts on snow-related variables in a semiarid region, Sierra Nevada, Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2016-04-01

In the current context of global change, mountainous areas constitute singular locations in which these changes can be traced. Early detection of significant shifts of snow state variables in semiarid regions can help assess climate variability impacts and future snow dynamics in northern latitudes. The Sierra Nevada mountain range, in southern Spain, is a representative example of snow areas in Mediterranean-climate regions and both monitoring and modelling efforts have been performed to assess this variability and its significant scales. This work presents a decadal trend analysis throughout the 50-yr period 1960-2010 performed on some snow-related variables over Sierra Nevada, in Spain, which is included in the global climate change observatories network around the world. The study area comprises 4583 km2 distributed throughout the five head basins influenced by these mountains, with altitude values ranging from 140 to 3479 m.a.s.l., just 40 km from the Mediterranean coastline. Meteorological variables obtained from 44 weather stations from the National Meteorological Agency were studied and further used as input to the distributed hydrological model WiMMed (Polo et al., 2010), operational at the study area, to obtain selected snow variables. Decadal trends were obtained, together with their statistical significance, over the following variables, averaged over the whole study area: (1) annual precipitation; (2) annual snowfall; annual (3) mean, (4) maximum and (5) minimum daily temperature; annual (6) mean and (7) maximum daily fraction of snow covered areas; (8) annual number of days with snow cover; (9) mean and (10) maximum daily snow water equivalent; (11) annual number of extreme precipitation events; and (12) mean intensity of the annual extreme precipitation events. These variables were also studied over each of the five regions associated to each basin in the range. Globally decreasing decadal trends were obtained for all the meteorological variables, with the exception of the average annual mean and maximum daily temperature. In the case of the snow-related variables, no significant trends are observed at this time scale; nonetheless, a global decreasing rate is predominant in most of the variables. The torrential events are more frequent in the last decades of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. This study constitutes a first sound analysis of the long-term observed trends of the snow regime in this area under the context of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation regimes. The results highlight the complexity of non-linearity in environmental processes in Mediterranean regions, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area.

Ground-water, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona--2004-05

USGS Publications Warehouse

Truini, Margot; Macy, J.P.

2006-01-01

The N aquifer is the major source of water in the 5,400-square-mile area of Black Mesa in northeastern Arizona. Availability of water is an important issue in this area because of continued industrial and municipal use, a growing population, and precipitation of about 6 to 14 inches per year. The monitoring program in the Black Mesa area has been operating since 1971 and is designed to determine the long-term effects of ground-water withdrawals from the N aquifer for industrial and municipal uses. The monitoring program includes measurements of (1) ground-water pumping, (2) ground-water levels, (3) spring discharge, (4) surface-water discharge, (5) ground-water chemistry, and (6) periodic testing of ground-water withdrawal meters. In 2004, total ground-water withdrawals were 7,210 acre-feet, industrial withdrawals were 4,370 acre-feet, and municipal withdrawals were 2,840 acre-feet. From 2003 to 2004, total withdrawals decreased by less than 1 percent, industrial withdrawals decreased by 2 percent, and municipal withdrawals increased by 2 percent. From 2004 to 2005, annually measured water levels declined in 6 of 13 wells in the unconfined areas of the aquifer, and the median change was -0.1 foot. Water levels declined in 8 of 12 wells in the confined area of the aquifer, and the median change was -1.2 feet. From the prestress period (prior to 1965) to 2005, the median water-level change for 33 wells was -9.0 feet. Median water-level changes were -0.6 foot for 16 wells in the unconfined areas and -32.0 feet for 17 wells in the confined area. Discharges were measured once in 2004 and once in 2005 at four springs. Discharge increased by 8 percent at Pasture Canyon Spring, decreased by 5 percent at Moenkopi School Spring, increased by 71 percent at an unnamed spring near Dennehotso, and stayed the same at Burro Spring. For the period of record at each spring, discharges from the four springs have fluctuated; however, an increasing or decreasing trend is not apparent. Continuous records of surface-water discharge have been collected from 1976 to 2004 at Moenkopi Wash, 1996 to 2004 at Laguna Creek, 1993 to 2004 at Dinnebito Wash, 1994 to 2004 at Polacca Wash, and August 2004 to December 2004 at Pasture Canyon Spring. Median flows for November, December, January, and February of each water year were used as an index of ground-water discharge to those streams. Since 1995, the median winter flows have decreased for Moenkopi Wash, Dinnebito Wash, and Polacca Wash. Since the first continuous record of surface-water discharge in 1997, there is no consistent trend in the median winter flow for Laguna Creek. In 2005, water samples were collected from 11 wells and 4 springs and analyzed for selected chemical constituents. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 122 to 639 milligrams per liter. Water samples from 9 of the wells and from all the springs had less than 500 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids. There are some long-term trends in the chemistry of water samples from 7 wells having more than 10 years of data and from 2 springs. Rough Rock PM5, Keams Canyon PM2, Second Mesa PM2, and Kayenta PM2 show an increasing trend in dissolved solids; Forest Lake NTUA1 and PWCC 2 show a decreasing trend in dissolved solids; and Kykostmovi PM2 shows a steady trend. Increasing trends in dissolved-solids and chloride concentrations were evident from the more than 11 years of data for 2 springs.

Inaccuracies in oral cavity-pharynx cancer coded as the underlying cause of death on U.S. death certificates, and trends in mortality rates (1999-2010).

PubMed

Polednak, Anthony P

2014-08-01

To enhance surveillance of mortality from oral cavity-pharynx cancer (OCPC) by considering inaccuracies in the cancer site coded as the underlying cause of death on death certificates vs. cancer site in a population-based cancer registry (as the gold standard). A database was used for 9 population-based cancer registries of the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, including deaths in 1999-2010 for patients diagnosed in 1973-2010. Numbers of deaths and death rates for OCPC in the SEER population were modified for apparent inaccuracies in the cancer site coded as the underlying cause of death. For age groups <65 years, deaths from OCPC were underestimated by 22-35% by using unmodified (vs. modified) numbers, but temporal declines in death rates were still evident in the SEER population and were similar to declines using routine mortality data for the entire U.S. population. Deaths were underestimated by about 70-80% using underlying cause for tonsillar cancers, strongly associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, but a lack of decline in death rates was still evident. Routine mortality statistics based on underlying cause of death underestimate OCPC deaths but demonstrate trends in OCPC death rates that require continued surveillance in view of increasing incidence rates for HPV-related OCPC. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of trends in pH in the Yampa River, northwestern Colorado, 1950-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chafin, Daniel T.

2002-01-01

In 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey began a study of pH trends in the Yampa River from near its headwaters to its mouth. The study was prompted by an apparent historical increase in measured pH at the Yampa River near Maybell, from an average of about 7.6 in the 1950's and 1960's to about 8.3 in the 1980's and 1990's. If real, further increase could cause more frequent exceedances of the Colorado water-quality standard of 9.0 and adversely affect aquatic life in the Yampa River Basin, including Dinosaur National Monument. The principal conclusion of this study is that this apparent historical increase in measured pH was caused mostly by changes in measurement protocol. Synoptic sampling during August 16-19, 1999, a period of relatively warm weather and base flow, showed that late afternoon pH of the Yampa River ranged from 8.46 to 9.20. The largest pH (9.20) exceeded the Colorado water-quality standard and was measured at Yampa River above Elk River, about 1.8 miles downstream from the Steamboat Springs Regional Waste Water Treatment Plant outfall, where nutrient enrichment caused photosynthesis by algae to dominate. Here, the dissolved oxygen concentration was 161 percent of saturation and carbon dioxide (CO2 was at 26 percent of saturation. At Yampa River downstream from a diversion near Hayden, 16.3 miles downstream, the effects of photosynthesis were still dominant, though attenuated by reaeration and dilution with freshwater from the Elk River. About 37.2 miles farther downstream, at Yampa River below Craig, which is about 6.2 miles downstream from the Craig Waste Water Treatment Plant, the effects of photosynthesis increased slightly, and pH rose to 8.80. Respiration plus oxidation of organic matter became dominant at Yampa River at Deerlodge Park in Dinosaur National Monument, where pH was 8.51, dissolved oxygen concentration was at 109 percent of saturation, and CO2 was at 189 percent of saturation. Respiration plus oxidation of organic matter, though diminished, apparently extended to the mouth of the Yampa River. Diurnal measurements on the Yampa River during August 23-26, 1999, show that the effects of photosynthesis and respiration plus oxidation of organic matter decreased downstream with distance from the developed urban area in the eastern part of the basin. Larger night-time values of pH in Dinosaur National Monument at Deerlodge Park and at the mouth of the Yampa River indicate that source waters varied with respect to capacity for respiration plus oxidation and photo-synthesis, that photosynthesis was minor, and that pH was largely controlled by respiration plus oxidation of organic matter. Synoptic sampling was repeated during March 13-16, 2000, when discharge was larger in response to late-winter melting of snow and ice at lower altitudes in the basin. Concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate were about 9 times greater in the Yampa River during March 2000 than during August 1999, and the largest increase (greater than 1,200 percent) was at Yampa River below Craig. At and downstream from Steamboat Springs, Colorado, pH at Yampa River sites averaged 8.85 during synoptic sampling in March 2000 compared to 8.70 in August 1999, with the partial pressure of carbon dioxide gas (PCO2) averaging 67 percent of saturation (compared to 99 percent during August 1999). The apparently larger effects of photosynthesis on pH and dissolved oxygen concentrations during March 2000 compared to August 1999 probably were caused by (1) slower rates of exchange of CO2 into and dissolved oxygen out of the river because of colder and deeper water and (2) slower rates of CO2 production and oxygen consumption resulting from slower rates of respiration by organisms and from slower rates of aerobic decomposition of organic matter in the colder river water and streambed sediment. Hypothetical thermodynamic simulations were done for samples collected in the lower Yampa River Basin to simulate the same amount of photosynthesis th

Geology of Utah and Nevada by ERTS-1 imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, M. L.

1973-01-01

Repetitive ERTS-1 imagery covering Utah and Nevada is studied as an aid in structural geology, mineral exploration, and limnological and hydrological aspects. Limnological features of algal blooms and varying biological activities in Utah Lake and the Great Salt Lake are grossly evident on the imagery with more subtle details detected on the different bands. Major structural breaks, lineages, or trends are abundant throughout the area of study. The correlation of positive aeromagnetic anomalies with the trends suggests near surface intrusive bodies, not yet exposed at the surface, that can be tested for possible associated mineralization by collecting soil-gas at the surface which is analyzed for mercury that is (1) apparently associated with mineralization, (2) escapes as a vapor, and (3) can be readily measured in extremely low amounts of less than 1 ppb by absorption.

Composition and Manufacturing Effects on Electrical Conductivity of Li/FeS 2 Thermal Battery Cathodes

DOE PAGES

Reinholz, Emilee L.; Roberts, Scott A.; Apblett, Christopher A.; ...

2016-06-11

The electrical conductivity is key to the performance of thermal battery cathodes. In this work we present the effects of manufacturing and processing conditions on the electrical conductivity of Li/FeS2 thermal battery cathodes. Finite element simulations were used to compute the conductivity of three-dimensional microcomputed tomography cathode microstructures and compare results to experimental impedance spectroscopy measurements. A regression analysis reveals a predictive relationship between composition, processing conditions, and electrical conductivity; a trend which is largely erased after thermally-induced deformation. Moreover, the trend applies to both experimental and simulation results, although is not as apparent in simulations. This research is amore » step toward a more fundamental understanding of the effects of processing and composition on thermal battery component microstructure, properties, and performance.« less

Sustained Photosynthetic Performance of Coffea spp. under Long-Term Enhanced [CO2

PubMed Central

Ramalho, José C.; Rodrigues, Ana P.; Semedo, José N.; Pais, Isabel P.; Martins, Lima D.; Simões-Costa, Maria C.; Leitão, António E.; Fortunato, Ana S.; Batista-Santos, Paula; Palos, Isabel M.; Tomaz, Marcelo A.; Scotti-Campos, Paula; Lidon, Fernando C.; DaMatta, Fábio M.

2013-01-01

Coffee is one of the world’s most traded agricultural products. Modeling studies have predicted that climate change will have a strong impact on the suitability of current cultivation areas, but these studies have not anticipated possible mitigating effects of the elevated atmospheric [CO2] because no information exists for the coffee plant. Potted plants from two genotypes of Coffea arabica and one of C. canephora were grown under controlled conditions of irradiance (800 μmol m-2 s-1), RH (75%) and 380 or 700 μL CO2 L-1 for 1 year, without water, nutrient or root development restrictions. In all genotypes, the high [CO2] treatment promoted opposite trends for stomatal density and size, which decreased and increased, respectively. Regardless of the genotype or the growth [CO2], the net rate of CO2 assimilation increased (34-49%) when measured at 700 than at 380 μL CO2 L-1. This result, together with the almost unchanged stomatal conductance, led to an instantaneous water use efficiency increase. The results also showed a reinforcement of photosynthetic (and respiratory) components, namely thylakoid electron transport and the activities of RuBisCo, ribulose 5-phosphate kinase, malate dehydrogenase and pyruvate kinase, what may have contributed to the enhancements in the maximum rates of electron transport, carboxylation and photosynthetic capacity under elevated [CO2], although these responses were genotype dependent. The photosystem II efficiency, energy driven to photochemical events, non-structural carbohydrates, photosynthetic pigment and membrane permeability did not respond to [CO2] supply. Some alterations in total fatty acid content and the unsaturation level of the chloroplast membranes were noted but, apparently, did not affect photosynthetic functioning. Despite some differences among the genotypes, no clear species-dependent responses to elevated [CO2] were observed. Overall, as no apparent sign of photosynthetic down-regulation was found, our data suggest that Coffea spp. plants may successfully cope with high [CO2] under the present experimental conditions. PMID:24324823

A Test of Model Validation from Observed Temperature Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, S. F.

2006-12-01

How much of current warming is due to natural causes and how much is manmade? This requires a comparison of the patterns of observed warming with the best available models that incorporate both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) as well as natural climate forcings (solar and volcanic). Fortunately, we have the just published U.S.-Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report (www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm), based on best current information. As seen in Fig. 1.3F of the report, modeled surface temperature trends change little with latitude, except for a stronger warming in the Arctic. The observations, however, show a strong surface warming in the northern hemisphere but not in the southern hemisphere (see Fig. 3.5C and 3.6D). The Antarctic is found to be cooling and Arctic temperatures, while currently rising, were higher in the 1930s than today. Although the Executive Summary of the CCSP report claims "clear evidence" for anthropogenic warming, based on comparing tropospheric and surface temperature trends, the report itself does not confirm this. Greenhouse models indicate that the tropics should provide the most sensitive location for their validation; trends there should increase by 200-300 percent with altitude, peaking at around 10 kilometers. The observations, however, show the opposite: flat or even decreasing tropospheric trend values (see Fig. 3.7 and also Fig. 5.7E). This disparity is demonstrated most strikingly in Fig. 5.4G, which shows the difference between surface and troposphere trends for a collection of models (displayed as a histogram) and for balloon and satellite data. [The disparities are less apparent in the Summary, which displays model results in terms of "range" rather than as histograms.] There may be several possible reasons for the disparity: Instrumental and other effects that exaggerate or otherwise distort observed temperature trends. Or, more likely: Shortcomings in models that result in much reduced values of climate sensitivity; for example, the neglect of important negative feedbacks. Allowing for uncertainties in the data and for imperfect models, there is only one valid conclusion from the failure of greenhouse models to explain the observations: The human contribution to global warming is still quite small, so that natural climate factors are dominant. This may also explain why the climate was cooling from 1940 to 1975 -- even as greenhouse-gas levels increased rapidly. An overall test for climate prediction may soon be possible by measuring the ongoing rise in sea level. According to my estimates, sea level should rise by 1.5 to 2.0 cm per decade (about the same rate as in past millennia); the U.N.-IPCC (4th Assessment Report) predicts 1.4 to 4.3 cm per decade. In the New York Review of Books (July 13, 2006), however, James Hansen suggests 20 feet or more per century -- equivalent to about 60 cm or more per decade.

Hydraulic geometry of the Platte River in south-central Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eschner, T.R.

1982-01-01

At-a-station hydraulic-geometry of the Platte River in south-central Nebraska is complex. The range of exponents of simple power-function relations is large, both between different reaches of the river, and among different sections within a given reach. The at-a-station exponents plot in several fields of the b-f-m diagram, suggesting that morphologic and hydraulic changes with increasing discharge vary considerably. Systematic changes in the plotting positions of the exponents with time indicate that in general, the width exponent has decreased, although trends are not readily apparent in the other exponents. Plots of the hydraulic-geometry relations indicate that simple power functions are not the proper model in all instances. For these sections, breaks in the slopes of the hydraulic geometry relations serve to partition the data sets. Power functions fit separately to the partitioned data described the width-, depth-, and velocity-discharge relations more accurately than did a single power function. Plotting positions of the exponents from hydraulic geometry relations of partitioned data sets on b-f-m diagrams indicate that much of the apparent variations of plotting positions of single power functions results because the single power functions compromise both subsets of partitioned data. For several sections, the shape of the channel primarily accounts for the better fit of two-power functions to partitioned data than a single power function over the entire range of data. These non-log linear relations may have significance for channel maintenance. (USGS)

Current and Potential Future Seasonal Trends of Indoor Dwelling Temperature and Likely Health Risks in Rural Southern Africa.

PubMed

Kapwata, Thandi; Gebreslasie, Michael T; Mathee, Angela; Wright, Caradee Yael

2018-05-10

Climate change has resulted in rising temperature trends which have been associated with changes in temperature extremes globally. Attendees of Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 agreed to strive to limit the rise in global average temperatures to below 2 °C compared to industrial conditions, the target being 1.5 °C. However, current research suggests that the African region will be subjected to more intense heat extremes over a shorter time period, with projections predicting increases of 4⁻6 °C for the period 2071⁻2100, in annual average maximum temperatures for southern Africa. Increased temperatures may exacerbate existing chronic ill health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes-related conditions. Exposure to extreme temperatures has also been associated with mortality. This study aimed to consider the relationship between temperatures in indoor and outdoor environments in a rural residential setting in a current climate and warmer predicted future climate. Temperature and humidity measurements were collected hourly in 406 homes in summer and spring and at two-hour intervals in 98 homes in winter. Ambient temperature, humidity and windspeed were obtained from the nearest weather station. Regression models were used to identify predictors of indoor apparent temperature (AT) and to estimate future indoor AT using projected ambient temperatures. Ambient temperatures will increase by a mean of 4.6 °C for the period 2088⁻2099. Warming in winter was projected to be greater than warming in summer and spring. The number of days during which indoor AT will be categorized as potentially harmful will increase in the future. Understanding current and future heat-related health effects is key in developing an effective surveillance system. The observations of this study can be used to inform the development and implementation of policies and practices around heat and health especially in rural areas of South Africa.

Urban heat islands in the subsurface of German cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menberg, K.; Blum, P.; Zhu, K.; Bayer, P.

2012-04-01

In the subsurface of many cities there are widespread and persistent thermal anomalies (subsurface urban heat islands) that result in a warming of urban aquifers. The reasons for this heating are manifold. Possible heat sources are basements of buildings, leakage of sewage systems, buried district heating networks, re-injection of cooling water and solar irradiation on paved surfaces. In the current study, the reported groundwater temperatures in several German cities, such as Berlin, Munich, Cologne and Karlsruhe, are compared. Available data sets are supplemented by temperature measurements and depth profiles in observation wells. Trend analyses are conducted with time series of groundwater temperatures, and three-dimensional groundwater temperature maps are provided. In all investigated cities, pronounced positive temperature anomalies are present. The distribution of groundwater temperatures appears to be spatially and temporally highly variable. Apparently, the increased heat input into the urban subsurface is controlled by very local and site-specific parameters. In the long-run, the superposition of various heat sources results in an extensive temperature increase. In many cases, the maximum temperature elevation is found close to the city centre. Regional groundwater temperature differences between the city centre and the rural background are up to 5 °C, with local hot spots of even more pronounced anomalies. Particular heat sources, like cooling water injections or case-specific underground constructions, can cause local temperatures > 20°C in the subsurface. Examination of the long-term variations in isotherm maps shows that temperatures have increased by about 1°C in the city, as well as in the rural background areas over the last decades. This increase could be reproduced with trend analysis of temperature data gathered from several groundwater wells. Comparison between groundwater and air temperatures in Karlsruhe, for example, also indicates a spatial correlation between the urban heat island effect in the subsurface and in the atmosphere.

Dietary magnesium and potassium intakes and circulating magnesium are associated with heel bone ultrasound attenuation and osteoporotic fracture risk in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study.

PubMed

Hayhoe, Richard P G; Lentjes, Marleen A H; Luben, Robert N; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Welch, Ailsa A

2015-08-01

In our aging population, maintenance of bone health is critical to reduce the risk of osteoporosis and potentially debilitating consequences of fractures in older individuals. Among modifiable lifestyle and dietary factors, dietary magnesium and potassium intakes are postulated to influence bone quality and osteoporosis, principally via calcium-dependent alteration of bone structure and turnover. We investigated the influence of dietary magnesium and potassium intakes, as well as circulating magnesium, on bone density status and fracture risk in an adult population in the United Kingdom. A random subset of 4000 individuals from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort of 25,639 men and women with baseline data was used for bone density cross-sectional analyses and combined with fracture cases (n = 1502) for fracture case-cohort longitudinal analyses (mean follow-up 13.4 y). Relevant biological, lifestyle, and dietary covariates were used in multivariate regression analyses to determine associations between dietary magnesium and potassium intakes and calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), as well as in Prentice-weighted Cox regression to determine associated risk of fracture. Separate analyses, excluding dietary covariates, investigated associations of BUA and fractures with serum magnesium concentration. Statistically significant positive trends in calcaneal BUA for women (n = 1360) but not men (n = 968) were apparent across increasing quintiles of magnesium plus potassium (Mg+K) z score intake (P = 0.03) or potassium intake alone (P = 0.04). Reduced hip fracture risk in both men (n = 1958) and women (n = 2755) was evident for individuals in specific Mg+K z score intake quintiles compared with the lowest. Statistically significant trends in fracture risk in men across serum magnesium concentration groups were apparent for spine fractures (P = 0.02) and total hip, spine, and wrist fractures (P = 0.02). None of these individual statistically significant associations remained after adjustment for multiple testing. These findings enhance the limited literature studying the association of magnesium and potassium with bone density and demonstrate that further investigation is warranted into the mechanisms involved and the potential protective role against osteoporosis. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Photographic mark-recapture analysis of local dynamics within an open population of dolphins.

PubMed

Fearnbach, H; Durban, J; Parsons, K; Claridge, D

2012-07-01

Identifying demographic changes is important for understanding population dynamics. However, this requires long-term studies of definable populations of distinct individuals, which can be particularly challenging when studying mobile cetaceans in the marine environment. We collected photo-identification data from 19 years (1992-2010) to assess the dynamics of a population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) restricted to the shallow (<7 m) waters of Little Bahama Bank, northern Bahamas. This population was known to range beyond our study area, so we adopted a Bayesian mixture modeling approach to mark-recapture to identify clusters of individuals that used the area to different extents, and we specifically estimated trends in survival, recruitment, and abundance of a "resident" population with high probabilities of identification. There was a high probability (p= 0.97) of a long-term decrease in the size of this resident population from a maximum of 47 dolphins (95% highest posterior density intervals, HPDI = 29-61) in 1996 to a minimum of just 24 dolphins (95% HPDI = 14-37) in 2009, a decline of 49% (95% HPDI = approximately 5% to approximately 75%). This was driven by low per capita recruitment (average approximately 0.02) that could not compensate for relatively low apparent survival rates (average approximately 0.94). Notably, there was a significant increase in apparent mortality (approximately 5 apparent mortalities vs. approximately 2 on average) in 1999 when two intense hurricanes passed over the study area, with a high probability (p = 0.83) of a drop below the average survival probability (approximately 0.91 in 1999; approximately 0.94, on average). As such, our mark-recapture approach enabled us to make useful inference about local dynamics within an open population of bottlenose dolphins; this should be applicable to other studies challenged by sampling highly mobile individuals with heterogeneous space use.

Lactation performance of mid-lactation dairy cows fed ruminally degradable protein at concentrations lower than national research council recommendations.

PubMed

Cyriac, J; Rius, A G; McGilliard, M L; Pearson, R E; Bequette, B J; Hanigan, M D

2008-12-01

The aim of this study was to test whether feeding of diets containing lower proportions of ruminally degradable protein (RDP) but with a constant proportion of ruminally undegradable protein (RUP) alters feed intake, milk production and yield, and the apparent efficiency of N utilization by mid-lactation dairy cows. During the covariate period (d 1 to 28), 40 mid-lactation cows (36 Holstein and 4 Jersey x Holstein cross-breds) were fed a common diet formulated to contain 11.3% of diet dry matter (DM) as RDP. During the treatment period (d 29 to 47), cows were randomly assigned to 1 of 4 diets formulated to contain 11.3, 10.1, 8.8, or 7.6% RDP, whereas ruminally undegradable protein remained constant at 7.1% of DM. All diets contained 47.5% forage and 52.5% concentrate on a DM basis. Dry matter intake was significantly reduced for the 7.6% RDP diet. The lowest RDP content was associated with a trend for reduced milk yield. Dietary RDP had no effect on body weight or milk fat, protein, and lactose contents. Milk protein yield was not affected by RDP level; however, milk fat yield decreased linearly as dietary RDP was reduced. Concentrations of plasma essential amino acids were unaffected, whereas milk urea-N concentrations decreased linearly as dietary RDP content was reduced. The apparent efficiency of N utilization for milk N production increased from 27.7% on the 11.3% RDP diet to 38.6% on the 7.6% RDP diet. The dietary RDP requirement of cows in this study was apparently met between 15.9 and 14.7% dietary crude protein. Milk production was not significantly affected by the 8.8% RDP (15.9% crude protein) diet even though the NRC (2001) model predicted that RDP supply was 87% of that required, suggesting the current NRC recommendations for RDP may be overestimated for mid-lactation dairy cows in this study.

Increases in the use of prescription opioid analgesics and the lack of improvement in disability metrics among users.

PubMed

Sites, Brian D; Beach, Michael L; Davis, Matthew A

2014-01-01

In the United States, use of oral opioid analgesics has been associated with increasing rates of addiction, abuse, and diversion. However, little is known about the recent national use of non-illicit prescription opioid analgesics (those prescribed in a physician-patient relationship), the primary source of these drugs for the general US population. Our primary objective was to examine trends in the use of prescription opioid analgesics in the United States and to identify defining characteristics of patient users of prescribed opioids from 2000 to 2010. We used the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to examine trends in prescription oral opioid analgesic use from 2000 to 2010. We used survey design methods to make national estimates of adults (18 years and older) who reported receiving an opioid analgesic prescription (referred to as opioid users) and used logistic regression to examine predictors of opioid analgesic use. Our primary outcome measures were national estimates of total users of prescription opioid analgesics and total number of prescriptions. Our secondary outcome was that of observing changes in the disability and health of the users. The estimated total number of opioid analgesic prescriptions in the United States increased by 104%, from 43.8 million in 2000 to 89.2 million in 2010. In 2000, an estimated 7.4% (95% confidence interval, 6.9-7.9) of adult Americans were prescription opioid users compared with 11.8% (95% confidence interval, 11.2-12.4) in 2010. On the basis of estimates adjusted for changes in the general population, each year was associated with a 6% increase in the likelihood of receiving an opioid prescription from 2000 to 2010. Despite the apparent increase in use, there were no demonstrable improvements in the age- or sex-adjusted disability and health status measures of opioid users. The use of prescription opioid analgesics among adult Americans has increased in recent years, and this increase does not seem to be associated with improvements in disability and health status among users. On a public health level, these data suggest that there may be an opportunity to reduce the prescribing of opioid analgesics without worsening of population health metrics.

Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach.

PubMed

Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe

2009-09-18

The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison. We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM). For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM) ban for all ruminants (1994). The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

The effect of weight change on changes in breast density measures over menopause in a breast cancer screening cohort.

PubMed

Wanders, Johanna Olga Pauline; Bakker, Marije Fokje; Veldhuis, Wouter Bernard; Peeters, Petra Huberdina Maria; van Gils, Carla Henrica

2015-05-30

High weight and high percentage mammographic breast density are both breast cancer risk factors but are negatively correlated. Therefore, we wanted to obtain more insight into this apparent paradox. We investigated in a longitudinal study how weight change over menopause is related to changes in mammographic breast features. Five hundred ninety-one participants of the EPIC-NL cohort were divided into three groups according to their prospectively measured weight change over menopause: (1) weight loss (more than -3.0 %), (2) stable weight (between -3.0 % and +3.0 %), and (3) weight gain (more than 3.0 %). SPSS GLM univariate analysis was used to determine both the mean breast measure changes in, and the trend over, the weight change groups. Over a median period of 5 years, the mean changes in percent density in these groups were -5.0 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) -8.0; -2.1), -6.8 % (95 % CI -9.0; -4.5), and -10.2 % (95 % CI -12.5; -7.9), respectively (P-trend = 0.001). The mean changes in dense area were -16.7 cm(2) (95 % CI -20.1; -13.4), -16.4 cm(2) (95 % CI -18.9; -13.9), and -18.1 cm(2) (95 % CI -20.6; -15.5), respectively (P-trend = 0.437). Finally, the mean changes in nondense area were -6.1 cm(2) (95 % CI -11.9; -0.4), -0.6 cm(2) (95 % CI -4.9; 3.8), and 5.3 cm(2) (95 % CI 0.9; 9.8), respectively (P-trend < 0.001). Going through menopause is associated with a decrease in both percent density and dense area. Owing to an increase in the nondense tissue, the decrease in percent density is largest in women who gain weight. The decrease in dense area is not related to weight change. So the fact that both high percent density and high weight or weight gain are associated with high postmenopausal breast cancer risk can probably not be explained by an increase (or slower decrease) of dense area in women gaining weight compared with women losing weight or maintaining a stable weight. These results suggest that weight and dense area are presumably two independent postmenopausal breast cancer risk factors.