Dynamical foundations of the neural circuit for bayesian decision making.

PubMed

Morita, Kenji

2009-07-01

On the basis of accumulating behavioral and neural evidences, it has recently been proposed that the brain neural circuits of humans and animals are equipped with several specific properties, which ensure that perceptual decision making implemented by the circuits can be nearly optimal in terms of Bayesian inference. Here, I introduce the basic ideas of such a proposal and discuss its implications from the standpoint of biophysical modeling developed in the framework of dynamical systems.

Are Student Evaluations of Teaching Effectiveness Valid for Measuring Student Learning Outcomes in Business Related Classes? A Neural Network and Bayesian Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galbraith, Craig S.; Merrill, Gregory B.; Kline, Doug M.

2012-01-01

In this study we investigate the underlying relational structure between student evaluations of teaching effectiveness (SETEs) and achievement of student learning outcomes in 116 business related courses. Utilizing traditional statistical techniques, a neural network analysis and a Bayesian data reduction and classification algorithm, we find…

Integrating probabilistic models of perception and interactive neural networks: a historical and tutorial review

PubMed Central

McClelland, James L.

2013-01-01

This article seeks to establish a rapprochement between explicitly Bayesian models of contextual effects in perception and neural network models of such effects, particularly the connectionist interactive activation (IA) model of perception. The article is in part an historical review and in part a tutorial, reviewing the probabilistic Bayesian approach to understanding perception and how it may be shaped by context, and also reviewing ideas about how such probabilistic computations may be carried out in neural networks, focusing on the role of context in interactive neural networks, in which both bottom-up and top-down signals affect the interpretation of sensory inputs. It is pointed out that connectionist units that use the logistic or softmax activation functions can exactly compute Bayesian posterior probabilities when the bias terms and connection weights affecting such units are set to the logarithms of appropriate probabilistic quantities. Bayesian concepts such the prior, likelihood, (joint and marginal) posterior, probability matching and maximizing, and calculating vs. sampling from the posterior are all reviewed and linked to neural network computations. Probabilistic and neural network models are explicitly linked to the concept of a probabilistic generative model that describes the relationship between the underlying target of perception (e.g., the word intended by a speaker or other source of sensory stimuli) and the sensory input that reaches the perceiver for use in inferring the underlying target. It is shown how a new version of the IA model called the multinomial interactive activation (MIA) model can sample correctly from the joint posterior of a proposed generative model for perception of letters in words, indicating that interactive processing is fully consistent with principled probabilistic computation. Ways in which these computations might be realized in real neural systems are also considered. PMID:23970868

Integrating probabilistic models of perception and interactive neural networks: a historical and tutorial review.

PubMed

McClelland, James L

2013-01-01

This article seeks to establish a rapprochement between explicitly Bayesian models of contextual effects in perception and neural network models of such effects, particularly the connectionist interactive activation (IA) model of perception. The article is in part an historical review and in part a tutorial, reviewing the probabilistic Bayesian approach to understanding perception and how it may be shaped by context, and also reviewing ideas about how such probabilistic computations may be carried out in neural networks, focusing on the role of context in interactive neural networks, in which both bottom-up and top-down signals affect the interpretation of sensory inputs. It is pointed out that connectionist units that use the logistic or softmax activation functions can exactly compute Bayesian posterior probabilities when the bias terms and connection weights affecting such units are set to the logarithms of appropriate probabilistic quantities. Bayesian concepts such the prior, likelihood, (joint and marginal) posterior, probability matching and maximizing, and calculating vs. sampling from the posterior are all reviewed and linked to neural network computations. Probabilistic and neural network models are explicitly linked to the concept of a probabilistic generative model that describes the relationship between the underlying target of perception (e.g., the word intended by a speaker or other source of sensory stimuli) and the sensory input that reaches the perceiver for use in inferring the underlying target. It is shown how a new version of the IA model called the multinomial interactive activation (MIA) model can sample correctly from the joint posterior of a proposed generative model for perception of letters in words, indicating that interactive processing is fully consistent with principled probabilistic computation. Ways in which these computations might be realized in real neural systems are also considered.

Nonlinear inversion of electrical resistivity imaging using pruning Bayesian neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Fei-Bo; Dai, Qian-Wei; Dong, Li

2016-06-01

Conventional artificial neural networks used to solve electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) inversion problem suffer from overfitting and local minima. To solve these problems, we propose to use a pruning Bayesian neural network (PBNN) nonlinear inversion method and a sample design method based on the K-medoids clustering algorithm. In the sample design method, the training samples of the neural network are designed according to the prior information provided by the K-medoids clustering results; thus, the training process of the neural network is well guided. The proposed PBNN, based on Bayesian regularization, is used to select the hidden layer structure by assessing the effect of each hidden neuron to the inversion results. Then, the hyperparameter α k , which is based on the generalized mean, is chosen to guide the pruning process according to the prior distribution of the training samples under the small-sample condition. The proposed algorithm is more efficient than other common adaptive regularization methods in geophysics. The inversion of synthetic data and field data suggests that the proposed method suppresses the noise in the neural network training stage and enhances the generalization. The inversion results with the proposed method are better than those of the BPNN, RBFNN, and RRBFNN inversion methods as well as the conventional least squares inversion.

A Prior for Neural Networks utilizing Enclosing Spheres for Normalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

v. Toussaint, U.; Gori, S.; Dose, V.

2004-11-01

Neural Networks are famous for their advantageous flexibility for problems when there is insufficient knowledge to set up a proper model. On the other hand this flexibility can cause over-fitting and can hamper the generalization properties of neural networks. Many approaches to regularize NN have been suggested but most of them based on ad-hoc arguments. Employing the principle of transformation invariance we derive a general prior in accordance with the Bayesian probability theory for a class of feedforward networks. Optimal networks are determined by Bayesian model comparison verifying the applicability of this approach.

Implementing a Bayes Filter in a Neural Circuit: The Case of Unknown Stimulus Dynamics.

PubMed

Sokoloski, Sacha

2017-09-01

In order to interact intelligently with objects in the world, animals must first transform neural population responses into estimates of the dynamic, unknown stimuli that caused them. The Bayesian solution to this problem is known as a Bayes filter, which applies Bayes' rule to combine population responses with the predictions of an internal model. The internal model of the Bayes filter is based on the true stimulus dynamics, and in this note, we present a method for training a theoretical neural circuit to approximately implement a Bayes filter when the stimulus dynamics are unknown. To do this we use the inferential properties of linear probabilistic population codes to compute Bayes' rule and train a neural network to compute approximate predictions by the method of maximum likelihood. In particular, we perform stochastic gradient descent on the negative log-likelihood of the neural network parameters with a novel approximation of the gradient. We demonstrate our methods on a finite-state, a linear, and a nonlinear filtering problem and show how the hidden layer of the neural network develops tuning curves consistent with findings in experimental neuroscience.

ANUBIS: artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system.

PubMed

Smith, Benjamin J H; Saaj, Chakravarthini M; Allouis, Elie

2013-01-01

Gain tuning is a crucial part of controller design and depends not only on an accurate understanding of the system in question, but also on the designer's ability to predict what disturbances and other perturbations the system will encounter throughout its operation. This letter presents ANUBIS (artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system), a novel biologically inspired technique for automatically tuning controller parameters in real time. ANUBIS is based on the Bayesian brain concept and modifies it by incorporating a model of the neuromodulatory system comprising four artificial neuromodulators. It has been applied to the controller of EchinoBot, a prototype walking rover for Martian exploration. ANUBIS has been implemented at three levels of the controller; gait generation, foot trajectory planning using Bézier curves, and foot trajectory tracking using a terminal sliding mode controller. We compare the results to a similar system that has been tuned using a multilayer perceptron. The use of Bayesian inference means that the system retains mathematical interpretability, unlike other intelligent tuning techniques, which use neural networks, fuzzy logic, or evolutionary algorithms. The simulation results show that ANUBIS provides significant improvements in efficiency and adaptability of the three controller components; it allows the robot to react to obstacles and uncertainties faster than the system tuned with the MLP, while maintaining stability and accuracy. As well as advancing rover autonomy, ANUBIS could also be applied to other situations where operating conditions are likely to change or cannot be accurately modeled in advance, such as process control. In addition, it demonstrates one way in which neuromodulation could fit into the Bayesian brain framework.

Bayesian neural adjustment of inhibitory control predicts emergence of problem stimulant use.

PubMed

Harlé, Katia M; Stewart, Jennifer L; Zhang, Shunan; Tapert, Susan F; Yu, Angela J; Paulus, Martin P

2015-11-01

Bayesian ideal observer models quantify individuals' context- and experience-dependent beliefs and expectations about their environment, which provides a powerful approach (i) to link basic behavioural mechanisms to neural processing; and (ii) to generate clinical predictors for patient populations. Here, we focus on (ii) and determine whether individual differences in the neural representation of the need to stop in an inhibitory task can predict the development of problem use (i.e. abuse or dependence) in individuals experimenting with stimulants. One hundred and fifty-seven non-dependent occasional stimulant users, aged 18-24, completed a stop-signal task while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging. These individuals were prospectively followed for 3 years and evaluated for stimulant use and abuse/dependence symptoms. At follow-up, 38 occasional stimulant users met criteria for a stimulant use disorder (problem stimulant users), while 50 had discontinued use (desisted stimulant users). We found that those individuals who showed greater neural responses associated with Bayesian prediction errors, i.e. the difference between actual and expected need to stop on a given trial, in right medial prefrontal cortex/anterior cingulate cortex, caudate, anterior insula, and thalamus were more likely to exhibit problem use 3 years later. Importantly, these computationally based neural predictors outperformed clinical measures and non-model based neural variables in predicting clinical status. In conclusion, young adults who show exaggerated brain processing underlying whether to 'stop' or to 'go' are more likely to develop stimulant abuse. Thus, Bayesian cognitive models provide both a computational explanation and potential predictive biomarkers of belief processing deficits in individuals at risk for stimulant addiction. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison of three different detectors applied to synthetic aperture radar data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranney, Kenneth I.; Khatri, Hiralal; Nguyen, Lam H.

2002-08-01

The U.S. Army Research Laboratory has investigated the relative performance of three different target detection paradigms applied to foliage penetration (FOPEN) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. The three detectors - a quadratic polynomial discriminator (QPD), Bayesian neural network (BNN) and a support vector machine (SVM) - utilize a common collection of statistics (feature values) calculated from the fully polarimetric FOPEN data. We describe the parametric variations required as part of the algorithm optimizations, and we present the relative performance of the detectors in terms of probability of false alarm (Pfa) and probability of detection (Pd).

Bayesian decoding using unsorted spikes in the rat hippocampus

PubMed Central

Layton, Stuart P.; Chen, Zhe; Wilson, Matthew A.

2013-01-01

A fundamental task in neuroscience is to understand how neural ensembles represent information. Population decoding is a useful tool to extract information from neuronal populations based on the ensemble spiking activity. We propose a novel Bayesian decoding paradigm to decode unsorted spikes in the rat hippocampus. Our approach uses a direct mapping between spike waveform features and covariates of interest and avoids accumulation of spike sorting errors. Our decoding paradigm is nonparametric, encoding model-free for representing stimuli, and extracts information from all available spikes and their waveform features. We apply the proposed Bayesian decoding algorithm to a position reconstruction task for freely behaving rats based on tetrode recordings of rat hippocampal neuronal activity. Our detailed decoding analyses demonstrate that our approach is efficient and better utilizes the available information in the nonsortable hash than the standard sorting-based decoding algorithm. Our approach can be adapted to an online encoding/decoding framework for applications that require real-time decoding, such as brain-machine interfaces. PMID:24089403

Comparison Between Linear and Non-parametric Regression Models for Genome-Enabled Prediction in Wheat

PubMed Central

Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

2012-01-01

In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models. PMID:23275882

Comparison between linear and non-parametric regression models for genome-enabled prediction in wheat.

PubMed

Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

2012-12-01

In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models.

Confidence as Bayesian Probability: From Neural Origins to Behavior.

PubMed

Meyniel, Florent; Sigman, Mariano; Mainen, Zachary F

2015-10-07

Research on confidence spreads across several sub-fields of psychology and neuroscience. Here, we explore how a definition of confidence as Bayesian probability can unify these viewpoints. This computational view entails that there are distinct forms in which confidence is represented and used in the brain, including distributional confidence, pertaining to neural representations of probability distributions, and summary confidence, pertaining to scalar summaries of those distributions. Summary confidence is, normatively, derived or "read out" from distributional confidence. Neural implementations of readout will trade off optimality versus flexibility of routing across brain systems, allowing confidence to serve diverse cognitive functions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of neural adaptation on dynamics and equilibrium state of neural activities in a ring neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takiyama, Ken

2017-12-01

How neural adaptation affects neural information processing (i.e. the dynamics and equilibrium state of neural activities) is a central question in computational neuroscience. In my previous works, I analytically clarified the dynamics and equilibrium state of neural activities in a ring-type neural network model that is widely used to model the visual cortex, motor cortex, and several other brain regions. The neural dynamics and the equilibrium state in the neural network model corresponded to a Bayesian computation and statistically optimal multiple information integration, respectively, under a biologically inspired condition. These results were revealed in an analytically tractable manner; however, adaptation effects were not considered. Here, I analytically reveal how the dynamics and equilibrium state of neural activities in a ring neural network are influenced by spike-frequency adaptation (SFA). SFA is an adaptation that causes gradual inhibition of neural activity when a sustained stimulus is applied, and the strength of this inhibition depends on neural activities. I reveal that SFA plays three roles: (1) SFA amplifies the influence of external input in neural dynamics; (2) SFA allows the history of the external input to affect neural dynamics; and (3) the equilibrium state corresponds to the statistically optimal multiple information integration independent of the existence of SFA. In addition, the equilibrium state in a ring neural network model corresponds to the statistically optimal integration of multiple information sources under biologically inspired conditions, independent of the existence of SFA.

Chinese Sentence Classification Based on Convolutional Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Chengwei; Wu, Ming; Zhang, Chuang

2017-10-01

Sentence classification is one of the significant issues in Natural Language Processing (NLP). Feature extraction is often regarded as the key point for natural language processing. Traditional ways based on machine learning can not take high level features into consideration, such as Naive Bayesian Model. The neural network for sentence classification can make use of contextual information to achieve greater results in sentence classification tasks. In this paper, we focus on classifying Chinese sentences. And the most important is that we post a novel architecture of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to apply on Chinese sentence classification. In particular, most of the previous methods often use softmax classifier for prediction, we embed a linear support vector machine to substitute softmax in the deep neural network model, minimizing a margin-based loss to get a better result. And we use tanh as an activation function, instead of ReLU. The CNN model improve the result of Chinese sentence classification tasks. Experimental results on the Chinese news title database validate the effectiveness of our model.

Using Bayesian neural networks to classify forest scenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vehtari, Aki; Heikkonen, Jukka; Lampinen, Jouko; Juujarvi, Jouni

1998-10-01

We present results that compare the performance of Bayesian learning methods for neural networks on the task of classifying forest scenes into trees and background. Classification task is demanding due to the texture richness of the trees, occlusions of the forest scene objects and diverse lighting conditions under operation. This makes it difficult to determine which are optimal image features for the classification. A natural way to proceed is to extract many different types of potentially suitable features, and to evaluate their usefulness in later processing stages. One approach to cope with large number of features is to use Bayesian methods to control the model complexity. Bayesian learning uses a prior on model parameters, combines this with evidence from a training data, and the integrates over the resulting posterior to make predictions. With this method, we can use large networks and many features without fear of overfitting. For this classification task we compare two Bayesian learning methods for multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks: (1) The evidence framework of MacKay uses a Gaussian approximation to the posterior weight distribution and maximizes with respect to hyperparameters. (2) In a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method due to Neal, the posterior distribution of the network parameters is numerically integrated using the MCMC method. As baseline classifiers for comparison we use (3) MLP early stop committee, (4) K-nearest-neighbor and (5) Classification And Regression Tree.

Neural network approaches versus statistical methods in classification of multisource remote sensing data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benediktsson, Jon A.; Swain, Philip H.; Ersoy, Okan K.

1990-01-01

Neural network learning procedures and statistical classificaiton methods are applied and compared empirically in classification of multisource remote sensing and geographic data. Statistical multisource classification by means of a method based on Bayesian classification theory is also investigated and modified. The modifications permit control of the influence of the data sources involved in the classification process. Reliability measures are introduced to rank the quality of the data sources. The data sources are then weighted according to these rankings in the statistical multisource classification. Four data sources are used in experiments: Landsat MSS data and three forms of topographic data (elevation, slope, and aspect). Experimental results show that two different approaches have unique advantages and disadvantages in this classification application.

Taming Many-Parameter BSM Models with Bayesian Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchera, M. P.; Karbo, A.; Prosper, H. B.; Sanchez, A.; Taylor, J. Z.

2017-09-01

The search for physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is a major focus of large-scale high energy physics experiments. One method is to look for specific deviations from the Standard Model that are predicted by BSM models. In cases where the model has a large number of free parameters, standard search methods become intractable due to computation time. This talk presents results using Bayesian Neural Networks, a supervised machine learning method, to enable the study of higher-dimensional models. The popular phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model was studied as an example of the feasibility and usefulness of this method. Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are used to expedite the calculations. Cross-section predictions for 13 TeV proton collisions will be presented. My participation in the Conference Experience for Undergraduates (CEU) in 2004-2006 exposed me to the national and global significance of cutting-edge research. At the 2005 CEU, I presented work from the previous summer's SULI internship at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, where I learned to program while working on the Majorana Project. That work inspired me to follow a similar research path, which led me to my current work on computational methods applied to BSM physics.

Static and transient performance prediction for CFB boilers using a Bayesian-Gaussian Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Haiwen; Ni, Weidou

1997-06-01

A Bayesian-Gaussian Neural Network (BGNN) is put forward in this paper to predict the static and transient performance of Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) boilers. The advantages of this network over Back-Propagation Neural Networks (BPNNs), easier determination of topology, simpler and time saving in training process as well as self-organizing ability, make this network more practical in on-line performance prediction for complicated processes. Simulation shows that this network is comparable to the BPNNs in predicting the performance of CFB boilers. Good and practical on-line performance predictions are essential for operation guide and model predictive control of CFB boilers, which are under research by the authors.

Enhancing PTFs with remotely sensed data for multi-scale soil water retention estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jana, Raghavendra B.; Mohanty, Binayak P.

2011-03-01

SummaryUse of remotely sensed data products in the earth science and water resources fields is growing due to increasingly easy availability of the data. Traditionally, pedotransfer functions (PTFs) employed for soil hydraulic parameter estimation from other easily available data have used basic soil texture and structure information as inputs. Inclusion of surrogate/supplementary data such as topography and vegetation information has shown some improvement in the PTF's ability to estimate more accurate soil hydraulic parameters. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are a popular tool for PTF development, and are usually applied across matching spatial scales of inputs and outputs. However, different hydrologic, hydro-climatic, and contaminant transport models require input data at different scales, all of which may not be easily available from existing databases. In such a scenario, it becomes necessary to scale the soil hydraulic parameter values estimated by PTFs to suit the model requirements. Also, uncertainties in the predictions need to be quantified to enable users to gauge the suitability of a particular dataset in their applications. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) inherently provide uncertainty estimates for their outputs due to their utilization of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. In this paper, we present a PTF methodology to estimate soil water retention characteristics built on a Bayesian framework for training of neural networks and utilizing several in situ and remotely sensed datasets jointly. The BNN is also applied across spatial scales to provide fine scale outputs when trained with coarse scale data. Our training data inputs include ground/remotely sensed soil texture, bulk density, elevation, and Leaf Area Index (LAI) at 1 km resolutions, while similar properties measured at a point scale are used as fine scale inputs. The methodology was tested at two different hydro-climatic regions. We also tested the effect of varying the support scale of the training data for the BNNs by sequentially aggregating finer resolution training data to coarser resolutions, and the applicability of the technique to upscaling problems. The BNN outputs are corrected for bias using a non-linear CDF-matching technique. Final results show good promise of the suitability of this Bayesian Neural Network approach for soil hydraulic parameter estimation across spatial scales using ground-, air-, or space-based remotely sensed geophysical parameters. Inclusion of remotely sensed data such as elevation and LAI in addition to in situ soil physical properties improved the estimation capabilities of the BNN-based PTF in certain conditions.

Modelling the Flow Stress of Alloy 316L using a Multi-Layered Feed Forward Neural Network with Bayesian Regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abiriand Bhekisipho Twala, Olufunminiyi

2017-08-01

In this paper, a multilayer feedforward neural network with Bayesian regularization constitutive model is developed for alloy 316L during high strain rate and high temperature plastic deformation. The input variables are strain rate, temperature and strain while the output value is the flow stress of the material. The results show that the use of Bayesian regularized technique reduces the potential of overfitting and overtraining. The prediction quality of the model is thereby improved. The model predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements. The measurement data used for the network training and model comparison were taken from relevant literature. The developed model is robust as it can be generalized to deformation conditions slightly below or above the training dataset.

Receptive Field Inference with Localized Priors

PubMed Central

Park, Mijung; Pillow, Jonathan W.

2011-01-01

The linear receptive field describes a mapping from sensory stimuli to a one-dimensional variable governing a neuron's spike response. However, traditional receptive field estimators such as the spike-triggered average converge slowly and often require large amounts of data. Bayesian methods seek to overcome this problem by biasing estimates towards solutions that are more likely a priori, typically those with small, smooth, or sparse coefficients. Here we introduce a novel Bayesian receptive field estimator designed to incorporate locality, a powerful form of prior information about receptive field structure. The key to our approach is a hierarchical receptive field model that flexibly adapts to localized structure in both spacetime and spatiotemporal frequency, using an inference method known as empirical Bayes. We refer to our method as automatic locality determination (ALD), and show that it can accurately recover various types of smooth, sparse, and localized receptive fields. We apply ALD to neural data from retinal ganglion cells and V1 simple cells, and find it achieves error rates several times lower than standard estimators. Thus, estimates of comparable accuracy can be achieved with substantially less data. Finally, we introduce a computationally efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for fully Bayesian inference under the ALD prior, yielding accurate Bayesian confidence intervals for small or noisy datasets. PMID:22046110

Bayesian model selection applied to artificial neural networks used for water resources modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingston, Greer B.; Maier, Holger R.; Lambert, Martin F.

2008-04-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have proven to be extremely valuable tools in the field of water resources engineering. However, one of the most difficult tasks in developing an ANN is determining the optimum level of complexity required to model a given problem, as there is no formal systematic model selection method. This paper presents a Bayesian model selection (BMS) method for ANNs that provides an objective approach for comparing models of varying complexity in order to select the most appropriate ANN structure. The approach uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo posterior simulations to estimate the evidence in favor of competing models and, in this study, three known methods for doing this are compared in terms of their suitability for being incorporated into the proposed BMS framework for ANNs. However, it is acknowledged that it can be particularly difficult to accurately estimate the evidence of ANN models. Therefore, the proposed BMS approach for ANNs incorporates a further check of the evidence results by inspecting the marginal posterior distributions of the hidden-to-output layer weights, which unambiguously indicate any redundancies in the hidden layer nodes. The fact that this check is available is one of the greatest advantages of the proposed approach over conventional model selection methods, which do not provide such a test and instead rely on the modeler's subjective choice of selection criterion. The advantages of a total Bayesian approach to ANN development, including training and model selection, are demonstrated on two synthetic and one real world water resources case study.

A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network

PubMed Central

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information. PMID:25938760

A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

Nonlinear Bayesian filtering and learning: a neuronal dynamics for perception.

PubMed

Kutschireiter, Anna; Surace, Simone Carlo; Sprekeler, Henning; Pfister, Jean-Pascal

2017-08-18

The robust estimation of dynamical hidden features, such as the position of prey, based on sensory inputs is one of the hallmarks of perception. This dynamical estimation can be rigorously formulated by nonlinear Bayesian filtering theory. Recent experimental and behavioral studies have shown that animals' performance in many tasks is consistent with such a Bayesian statistical interpretation. However, it is presently unclear how a nonlinear Bayesian filter can be efficiently implemented in a network of neurons that satisfies some minimum constraints of biological plausibility. Here, we propose the Neural Particle Filter (NPF), a sampling-based nonlinear Bayesian filter, which does not rely on importance weights. We show that this filter can be interpreted as the neuronal dynamics of a recurrently connected rate-based neural network receiving feed-forward input from sensory neurons. Further, it captures properties of temporal and multi-sensory integration that are crucial for perception, and it allows for online parameter learning with a maximum likelihood approach. The NPF holds the promise to avoid the 'curse of dimensionality', and we demonstrate numerically its capability to outperform weighted particle filters in higher dimensions and when the number of particles is limited.

Research on Nonlinear Time Series Forecasting of Time-Delay NN Embedded with Bayesian Regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Weijin; Xu, Yusheng; Xu, Yuhui; Wang, Jianmin

Based on the idea of nonlinear prediction of phase space reconstruction, this paper presented a time delay BP neural network model, whose generalization capability was improved by Bayesian regularization. Furthermore, the model is applied to forecast the imp&exp trades in one industry. The results showed that the improved model has excellent generalization capabilities, which not only learned the historical curve, but efficiently predicted the trend of business. Comparing with common evaluation of forecasts, we put on a conclusion that nonlinear forecast can not only focus on data combination and precision improvement, it also can vividly reflect the nonlinear characteristic of the forecasting system. While analyzing the forecasting precision of the model, we give a model judgment by calculating the nonlinear characteristic value of the combined serial and original serial, proved that the forecasting model can reasonably 'catch' the dynamic characteristic of the nonlinear system which produced the origin serial.

Recursive Bayesian recurrent neural networks for time-series modeling.

PubMed

Mirikitani, Derrick T; Nikolaev, Nikolay

2010-02-01

This paper develops a probabilistic approach to recursive second-order training of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for improved time-series modeling. A general recursive Bayesian Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is derived to sequentially update the weights and the covariance (Hessian) matrix. The main strengths of the approach are a principled handling of the regularization hyperparameters that leads to better generalization, and stable numerical performance. The framework involves the adaptation of a noise hyperparameter and local weight prior hyperparameters, which represent the noise in the data and the uncertainties in the model parameters. Experimental investigations using artificial and real-world data sets show that RNNs equipped with the proposed approach outperform standard real-time recurrent learning and extended Kalman training algorithms for recurrent networks, as well as other contemporary nonlinear neural models, on time-series modeling.

A program for the Bayesian Neural Network in the ROOT framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Jiahang; Huang, Run-Sheng; Lee, Shih-Chang

2011-12-01

We present a Bayesian Neural Network algorithm implemented in the TMVA package (Hoecker et al., 2007 [1]), within the ROOT framework (Brun and Rademakers, 1997 [2]). Comparing to the conventional utilization of Neural Network as discriminator, this new implementation has more advantages as a non-parametric regression tool, particularly for fitting probabilities. It provides functionalities including cost function selection, complexity control and uncertainty estimation. An example of such application in High Energy Physics is shown. The algorithm is available with ROOT release later than 5.29. Program summaryProgram title: TMVA-BNN Catalogue identifier: AEJX_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEJX_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: BSD license No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 5094 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 1,320,987 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C++ Computer: Any computer system or cluster with C++ compiler and UNIX-like operating system Operating system: Most UNIX/Linux systems. The application programs were thoroughly tested under Fedora and Scientific Linux CERN. Classification: 11.9 External routines: ROOT package version 5.29 or higher ( http://root.cern.ch) Nature of problem: Non-parametric fitting of multivariate distributions Solution method: An implementation of Neural Network following the Bayesian statistical interpretation. Uses Laplace approximation for the Bayesian marginalizations. Provides the functionalities of automatic complexity control and uncertainty estimation. Running time: Time consumption for the training depends substantially on the size of input sample, the NN topology, the number of training iterations, etc. For the example in this manuscript, about 7 min was used on a PC/Linux with 2.0 GHz processors.

Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xuesong; Liang, Faming; Yu, Beibei

2011-11-09

Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework to incorporate the uncertainties associated with input, model structure, and parameter into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform the BNNs that only consider uncertainties associatedmore » with parameter and model structure. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters show that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of different uncertainty sources and including output error into the MCMC framework are expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting.« less

With or without you: predictive coding and Bayesian inference in the brain

PubMed Central

Aitchison, Laurence; Lengyel, Máté

2018-01-01

Two theoretical ideas have emerged recently with the ambition to provide a unifying functional explanation of neural population coding and dynamics: predictive coding and Bayesian inference. Here, we describe the two theories and their combination into a single framework: Bayesian predictive coding. We clarify how the two theories can be distinguished, despite sharing core computational concepts and addressing an overlapping set of empirical phenomena. We argue that predictive coding is an algorithmic / representational motif that can serve several different computational goals of which Bayesian inference is but one. Conversely, while Bayesian inference can utilize predictive coding, it can also be realized by a variety of other representations. We critically evaluate the experimental evidence supporting Bayesian predictive coding and discuss how to test it more directly. PMID:28942084

Diagnosis of combined faults in Rotary Machinery by Non-Naive Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asr, Mahsa Yazdanian; Ettefagh, Mir Mohammad; Hassannejad, Reza; Razavi, Seyed Naser

2017-02-01

When combined faults happen in different parts of the rotating machines, their features are profoundly dependent. Experts are completely familiar with individuals faults characteristics and enough data are available from single faults but the problem arises, when the faults combined and the separation of characteristics becomes complex. Therefore, the experts cannot declare exact information about the symptoms of combined fault and its quality. In this paper to overcome this drawback, a novel method is proposed. The core idea of the method is about declaring combined fault without using combined fault features as training data set and just individual fault features are applied in training step. For this purpose, after data acquisition and resampling the obtained vibration signals, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is utilized to decompose multi component signals to Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). With the use of correlation coefficient, proper IMFs for feature extraction are selected. In feature extraction step, Shannon energy entropy of IMFs was extracted as well as statistical features. It is obvious that most of extracted features are strongly dependent. To consider this matter, Non-Naive Bayesian Classifier (NNBC) is appointed, which release the fundamental assumption of Naive Bayesian, i.e., the independence among features. To demonstrate the superiority of NNBC, other counterpart methods, include Normal Naive Bayesian classifier, Kernel Naive Bayesian classifier and Back Propagation Neural Networks were applied and the classification results are compared. An experimental vibration signals, collected from automobile gearbox, were used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. During the classification process, only the features, related individually to healthy state, bearing failure and gear failures, were assigned for training the classifier. But, combined fault features (combined gear and bearing failures) were examined as test data. The achieved probabilities for the test data show that the combined fault can be identified with high success rate.

Nuclear charge radii: density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, R.; Chen, Wei-Chia; Piekarewicz, J.

2016-11-01

The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. The aim of this study is to explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonstrated the ability of the BNN approach to significantly increase the accuracy of nuclear models in the predictions of nuclear charge radii. However, as many before us, we failed to uncover the underlying physics behind the intriguing behavior of charge radii along the calcium isotopic chain.

Uncertainties in Parameters Estimated with Neural Networks: Application to Strong Gravitational Lensing

DOE PAGES

Perreault Levasseur, Laurence; Hezaveh, Yashar D.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2017-11-15

In Hezaveh et al. (2017) we showed that deep learning can be used for model parameter estimation and trained convolutional neural networks to determine the parameters of strong gravitational lensing systems. Here we demonstrate a method for obtaining the uncertainties of these parameters. We review the framework of variational inference to obtain approximate posteriors of Bayesian neural networks and apply it to a network trained to estimate the parameters of the Singular Isothermal Ellipsoid plus external shear and total flux magnification. We show that the method can capture the uncertainties due to different levels of noise in the input data,more » as well as training and architecture-related errors made by the network. To evaluate the accuracy of the resulting uncertainties, we calculate the coverage probabilities of marginalized distributions for each lensing parameter. By tuning a single hyperparameter, the dropout rate, we obtain coverage probabilities approximately equal to the confidence levels for which they were calculated, resulting in accurate and precise uncertainty estimates. Our results suggest that neural networks can be a fast alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chains for parameter uncertainty estimation in many practical applications, allowing more than seven orders of magnitude improvement in speed.« less

Uncertainties in Parameters Estimated with Neural Networks: Application to Strong Gravitational Lensing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perreault Levasseur, Laurence; Hezaveh, Yashar D.; Wechsler, Risa H.

In Hezaveh et al. (2017) we showed that deep learning can be used for model parameter estimation and trained convolutional neural networks to determine the parameters of strong gravitational lensing systems. Here we demonstrate a method for obtaining the uncertainties of these parameters. We review the framework of variational inference to obtain approximate posteriors of Bayesian neural networks and apply it to a network trained to estimate the parameters of the Singular Isothermal Ellipsoid plus external shear and total flux magnification. We show that the method can capture the uncertainties due to different levels of noise in the input data,more » as well as training and architecture-related errors made by the network. To evaluate the accuracy of the resulting uncertainties, we calculate the coverage probabilities of marginalized distributions for each lensing parameter. By tuning a single hyperparameter, the dropout rate, we obtain coverage probabilities approximately equal to the confidence levels for which they were calculated, resulting in accurate and precise uncertainty estimates. Our results suggest that neural networks can be a fast alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chains for parameter uncertainty estimation in many practical applications, allowing more than seven orders of magnitude improvement in speed.« less

Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

PubMed

Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

2016-08-01

Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

Probabilistic Models and Generative Neural Networks: Towards an Unified Framework for Modeling Normal and Impaired Neurocognitive Functions

PubMed Central

Testolin, Alberto; Zorzi, Marco

2016-01-01

Connectionist models can be characterized within the more general framework of probabilistic graphical models, which allow to efficiently describe complex statistical distributions involving a large number of interacting variables. This integration allows building more realistic computational models of cognitive functions, which more faithfully reflect the underlying neural mechanisms at the same time providing a useful bridge to higher-level descriptions in terms of Bayesian computations. Here we discuss a powerful class of graphical models that can be implemented as stochastic, generative neural networks. These models overcome many limitations associated with classic connectionist models, for example by exploiting unsupervised learning in hierarchical architectures (deep networks) and by taking into account top-down, predictive processing supported by feedback loops. We review some recent cognitive models based on generative networks, and we point out promising research directions to investigate neuropsychological disorders within this approach. Though further efforts are required in order to fill the gap between structured Bayesian models and more realistic, biophysical models of neuronal dynamics, we argue that generative neural networks have the potential to bridge these levels of analysis, thereby improving our understanding of the neural bases of cognition and of pathologies caused by brain damage. PMID:27468262

Probabilistic Models and Generative Neural Networks: Towards an Unified Framework for Modeling Normal and Impaired Neurocognitive Functions.

PubMed

Testolin, Alberto; Zorzi, Marco

2016-01-01

Connectionist models can be characterized within the more general framework of probabilistic graphical models, which allow to efficiently describe complex statistical distributions involving a large number of interacting variables. This integration allows building more realistic computational models of cognitive functions, which more faithfully reflect the underlying neural mechanisms at the same time providing a useful bridge to higher-level descriptions in terms of Bayesian computations. Here we discuss a powerful class of graphical models that can be implemented as stochastic, generative neural networks. These models overcome many limitations associated with classic connectionist models, for example by exploiting unsupervised learning in hierarchical architectures (deep networks) and by taking into account top-down, predictive processing supported by feedback loops. We review some recent cognitive models based on generative networks, and we point out promising research directions to investigate neuropsychological disorders within this approach. Though further efforts are required in order to fill the gap between structured Bayesian models and more realistic, biophysical models of neuronal dynamics, we argue that generative neural networks have the potential to bridge these levels of analysis, thereby improving our understanding of the neural bases of cognition and of pathologies caused by brain damage.

Construction cost estimation of spherical storage tanks: artificial neural networks and hybrid regression—GA algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arabzadeh, Vida; Niaki, S. T. A.; Arabzadeh, Vahid

2017-10-01

One of the most important processes in the early stages of construction projects is to estimate the cost involved. This process involves a wide range of uncertainties, which make it a challenging task. Because of unknown issues, using the experience of the experts or looking for similar cases are the conventional methods to deal with cost estimation. The current study presents data-driven methods for cost estimation based on the application of artificial neural network (ANN) and regression models. The learning algorithms of the ANN are the Levenberg-Marquardt and the Bayesian regulated. Moreover, regression models are hybridized with a genetic algorithm to obtain better estimates of the coefficients. The methods are applied in a real case, where the input parameters of the models are assigned based on the key issues involved in a spherical tank construction. The results reveal that while a high correlation between the estimated cost and the real cost exists; both ANNs could perform better than the hybridized regression models. In addition, the ANN with the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm (LMNN) obtains a better estimation than the ANN with the Bayesian-regulated learning algorithm (BRNN). The correlation between real data and estimated values is over 90%, while the mean square error is achieved around 0.4. The proposed LMNN model can be effective to reduce uncertainty and complexity in the early stages of the construction project.

Learning coefficient of generalization error in Bayesian estimation and vandermonde matrix-type singularity.

PubMed

Aoyagi, Miki; Nagata, Kenji

2012-06-01

The term algebraic statistics arises from the study of probabilistic models and techniques for statistical inference using methods from algebra and geometry (Sturmfels, 2009 ). The purpose of our study is to consider the generalization error and stochastic complexity in learning theory by using the log-canonical threshold in algebraic geometry. Such thresholds correspond to the main term of the generalization error in Bayesian estimation, which is called a learning coefficient (Watanabe, 2001a , 2001b ). The learning coefficient serves to measure the learning efficiencies in hierarchical learning models. In this letter, we consider learning coefficients for Vandermonde matrix-type singularities, by using a new approach: focusing on the generators of the ideal, which defines singularities. We give tight new bound values of learning coefficients for the Vandermonde matrix-type singularities and the explicit values with certain conditions. By applying our results, we can show the learning coefficients of three-layered neural networks and normal mixture models.

Neural Mechanisms for Integrating Prior Knowledge and Likelihood in Value-Based Probabilistic Inference

PubMed Central

Ting, Chih-Chung; Yu, Chia-Chen; Maloney, Laurence T.

2015-01-01

In Bayesian decision theory, knowledge about the probabilities of possible outcomes is captured by a prior distribution and a likelihood function. The prior reflects past knowledge and the likelihood summarizes current sensory information. The two combined (integrated) form a posterior distribution that allows estimation of the probability of different possible outcomes. In this study, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying Bayesian integration using a novel lottery decision task in which both prior knowledge and likelihood information about reward probability were systematically manipulated on a trial-by-trial basis. Consistent with Bayesian integration, as sample size increased, subjects tended to weigh likelihood information more compared with prior information. Using fMRI in humans, we found that the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) correlated with the mean of the posterior distribution, a statistic that reflects the integration of prior knowledge and likelihood of reward probability. Subsequent analysis revealed that both prior and likelihood information were represented in mPFC and that the neural representations of prior and likelihood in mPFC reflected changes in the behaviorally estimated weights assigned to these different sources of information in response to changes in the environment. Together, these results establish the role of mPFC in prior-likelihood integration and highlight its involvement in representing and integrating these distinct sources of information. PMID:25632152

Exploiting neurovascular coupling: a Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo approach applied to simulated EEG fNIRS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croce, Pierpaolo; Zappasodi, Filippo; Merla, Arcangelo; Chiarelli, Antonio Maria

2017-08-01

Objective. Electrical and hemodynamic brain activity are linked through the neurovascular coupling process and they can be simultaneously measured through integration of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). Thanks to the lack of electro-optical interference, the two procedures can be easily combined and, whereas EEG provides electrophysiological information, fNIRS can provide measurements of two hemodynamic variables, such as oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin. A Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo approach (particle filter, PF) was applied to simulated recordings of electrical and neurovascular mediated hemodynamic activity, and the advantages of a unified framework were shown. Approach. Multiple neural activities and hemodynamic responses were simulated in the primary motor cortex of a subject brain. EEG and fNIRS recordings were obtained by means of forward models of volume conduction and light propagation through the head. A state space model of combined EEG and fNIRS data was built and its dynamic evolution was estimated through a Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo approach (PF). Main results. We showed the feasibility of the procedure and the improvements in both electrical and hemodynamic brain activity reconstruction when using the PF on combined EEG and fNIRS measurements. Significance. The investigated procedure allows one to combine the information provided by the two methodologies, and, by taking advantage of a physical model of the coupling between electrical and hemodynamic response, to obtain a better estimate of brain activity evolution. Despite the high computational demand, application of such an approach to in vivo recordings could fully exploit the advantages of this combined brain imaging technology.

A comparison of back propagation and Generalized Regression Neural Networks performance in neutron spectrometry.

PubMed

Martínez-Blanco, Ma Del Rosario; Ornelas-Vargas, Gerardo; Solís-Sánchez, Luis Octavio; Castañeda-Miranada, Rodrigo; Vega-Carrillo, Héctor René; Celaya-Padilla, José M; Garza-Veloz, Idalia; Martínez-Fierro, Margarita; Ortiz-Rodríguez, José Manuel

2016-11-01

The process of unfolding the neutron energy spectrum has been subject of research for many years. Monte Carlo, iterative methods, the bayesian theory, the principle of maximum entropy are some of the methods used. The drawbacks associated with traditional unfolding procedures have motivated the research of complementary approaches. Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN), have been applied with success in neutron spectrometry and dosimetry domains, however, the structure and learning parameters are factors that highly impact in the networks performance. In ANN domain, Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the simplest neural networks in term of network architecture and learning algorithm. The learning is instantaneous, requiring no time for training. Opposite to BPNN, a GRNN would be formed instantly with just a 1-pass training on the development data. In the network development phase, the only hurdle is to optimize the hyper-parameter, which is known as sigma, governing the smoothness of the network. The aim of this work was to compare the performance of BPNN and GRNN in the solution of the neutron spectrometry problem. From results obtained it can be observed that despite the very similar results, GRNN performs better than BPNN. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ciuca, Razvan; Hernández, Oscar F., E-mail: razvan.ciuca@mail.mcgill.ca, E-mail: oscarh@physics.mcgill.ca

There exists various proposals to detect cosmic strings from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) or 21 cm temperature maps. Current proposals do not aim to find the location of strings on sky maps, all of these approaches can be thought of as a statistic on a sky map. We propose a Bayesian interpretation of cosmic string detection and within that framework, we derive a connection between estimates of cosmic string locations and cosmic string tension G μ. We use this Bayesian framework to develop a machine learning framework for detecting strings from sky maps and outline how to implement this frameworkmore » with neural networks. The neural network we trained was able to detect and locate cosmic strings on noiseless CMB temperature map down to a string tension of G μ=5 ×10{sup −9} and when analyzing a CMB temperature map that does not contain strings, the neural network gives a 0.95 probability that G μ≤2.3×10{sup −9}.« less

Evolution of the cerebellum as a neuronal machine for Bayesian state estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulin, M. G.

2005-09-01

The cerebellum evolved in association with the electric sense and vestibular sense of the earliest vertebrates. Accurate information provided by these sensory systems would have been essential for precise control of orienting behavior in predation. A simple model shows that individual spikes in electrosensory primary afferent neurons can be interpreted as measurements of prey location. Using this result, I construct a computational neural model in which the spatial distribution of spikes in a secondary electrosensory map forms a Monte Carlo approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution of prey locations given the sense data. The neural circuit that emerges naturally to perform this task resembles the cerebellar-like hindbrain electrosensory filtering circuitry of sharks and other electrosensory vertebrates. The optimal filtering mechanism can be extended to handle dynamical targets observed from a dynamical platform; that is, to construct an optimal dynamical state estimator using spiking neurons. This may provide a generic model of cerebellar computation. Vertebrate motion-sensing neurons have specific fractional-order dynamical characteristics that allow Bayesian state estimators to be implemented elegantly and efficiently, using simple operations with asynchronous pulses, i.e. spikes. The computational neural models described in this paper represent a novel kind of particle filter, using spikes as particles. The models are specific and make testable predictions about computational mechanisms in cerebellar circuitry, while providing a plausible explanation of cerebellar contributions to aspects of motor control, perception and cognition.

Pricing and hedging derivative securities with neural networks: Bayesian regularization, early stopping, and bagging.

PubMed

Gençay, R; Qi, M

2001-01-01

We study the effectiveness of cross validation, Bayesian regularization, early stopping, and bagging to mitigate overfitting and improving generalization for pricing and hedging derivative securities with daily S&P 500 index daily call options from January 1988 to December 1993. Our results indicate that Bayesian regularization can generate significantly smaller pricing and delta-hedging errors than the baseline neural-network (NN) model and the Black-Scholes model for some years. While early stopping does not affect the pricing errors, it significantly reduces the hedging error (HE) in four of the six years we investigated. Although computationally most demanding, bagging seems to provide the most accurate pricing and delta hedging. Furthermore, the standard deviation of the MSPE of bagging is far less than that of the baseline model in all six years, and the standard deviation of the average HE of bagging is far less than that of the baseline model in five out of six years. We conclude that they be used at least in cases when no appropriate hints are available.

The visual system’s internal model of the world

PubMed Central

Lee, Tai Sing

2015-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm has provided a useful conceptual theory for understanding perceptual computation in the brain. While the detailed neural mechanisms of Bayesian inference are not fully understood, recent computational and neurophysiological works have illuminated the underlying computational principles and representational architecture. The fundamental insights are that the visual system is organized as a modular hierarchy to encode an internal model of the world, and that perception is realized by statistical inference based on such internal model. In this paper, I will discuss and analyze the varieties of representational schemes of these internal models and how they might be used to perform learning and inference. I will argue for a unified theoretical framework for relating the internal models to the observed neural phenomena and mechanisms in the visual cortex. PMID:26566294

Neuronal integration of dynamic sources: Bayesian learning and Bayesian inference.

PubMed

Siegelmann, Hava T; Holzman, Lars E

2010-09-01

One of the brain's most basic functions is integrating sensory data from diverse sources. This ability causes us to question whether the neural system is computationally capable of intelligently integrating data, not only when sources have known, fixed relative dependencies but also when it must determine such relative weightings based on dynamic conditions, and then use these learned weightings to accurately infer information about the world. We suggest that the brain is, in fact, fully capable of computing this parallel task in a single network and describe a neural inspired circuit with this property. Our implementation suggests the possibility that evidence learning requires a more complex organization of the network than was previously assumed, where neurons have different specialties, whose emergence brings the desired adaptivity seen in human online inference.

Model-based Bayesian signal extraction algorithm for peripheral nerves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggers, Thomas E.; Dweiri, Yazan M.; McCallum, Grant A.; Durand, Dominique M.

2017-10-01

Objective. Multi-channel cuff electrodes have recently been investigated for extracting fascicular-level motor commands from mixed neural recordings. Such signals could provide volitional, intuitive control over a robotic prosthesis for amputee patients. Recent work has demonstrated success in extracting these signals in acute and chronic preparations using spatial filtering techniques. These extracted signals, however, had low signal-to-noise ratios and thus limited their utility to binary classification. In this work a new algorithm is proposed which combines previous source localization approaches to create a model based method which operates in real time. Approach. To validate this algorithm, a saline benchtop setup was created to allow the precise placement of artificial sources within a cuff and interference sources outside the cuff. The artificial source was taken from five seconds of chronic neural activity to replicate realistic recordings. The proposed algorithm, hybrid Bayesian signal extraction (HBSE), is then compared to previous algorithms, beamforming and a Bayesian spatial filtering method, on this test data. An example chronic neural recording is also analyzed with all three algorithms. Main results. The proposed algorithm improved the signal to noise and signal to interference ratio of extracted test signals two to three fold, as well as increased the correlation coefficient between the original and recovered signals by 10-20%. These improvements translated to the chronic recording example and increased the calculated bit rate between the recovered signals and the recorded motor activity. Significance. HBSE significantly outperforms previous algorithms in extracting realistic neural signals, even in the presence of external noise sources. These results demonstrate the feasibility of extracting dynamic motor signals from a multi-fascicled intact nerve trunk, which in turn could extract motor command signals from an amputee for the end goal of controlling a prosthetic limb.

Signal Detection and Monitoring Based on Longitudinal Healthcare Data

PubMed Central

Suling, Marc; Pigeot, Iris

2012-01-01

Post-marketing detection and surveillance of potential safety hazards are crucial tasks in pharmacovigilance. To uncover such safety risks, a wide set of techniques has been developed for spontaneous reporting data and, more recently, for longitudinal data. This paper gives a broad overview of the signal detection process and introduces some types of data sources typically used. The most commonly applied signal detection algorithms are presented, covering simple frequentistic methods like the proportional reporting rate or the reporting odds ratio, more advanced Bayesian techniques for spontaneous and longitudinal data, e.g., the Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network or the Multi-item Gamma-Poisson Shrinker and methods developed for longitudinal data only, like the IC temporal pattern detection. Additionally, the problem of adjustment for underlying confounding is discussed and the most common strategies to automatically identify false-positive signals are addressed. A drug monitoring technique based on Wald’s sequential probability ratio test is presented. For each method, a real-life application is given, and a wide set of literature for further reading is referenced. PMID:24300373

Reliability based impact localization in composite panels using Bayesian updating and the Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morse, Llewellyn; Sharif Khodaei, Zahra; Aliabadi, M. H.

2018-01-01

In this work, a reliability based impact detection strategy for a sensorized composite structure is proposed. Impacts are localized using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) with recorded guided waves due to impacts used as inputs. To account for variability in the recorded data under operational conditions, Bayesian updating and Kalman filter techniques are applied to improve the reliability of the detection algorithm. The possibility of having one or more faulty sensors is considered, and a decision fusion algorithm based on sub-networks of sensors is proposed to improve the application of the methodology to real structures. A strategy for reliably categorizing impacts into high energy impacts, which are probable to cause damage in the structure (true impacts), and low energy non-damaging impacts (false impacts), has also been proposed to reduce the false alarm rate. The proposed strategy involves employing classification ANNs with different features extracted from captured signals used as inputs. The proposed methodologies are validated by experimental results on a quasi-isotropic composite coupon impacted with a range of impact energies.

Decentralized cooperative TOA/AOA target tracking for hierarchical wireless sensor networks.

PubMed

Chen, Ying-Chih; Wen, Chih-Yu

2012-11-08

This paper proposes a distributed method for cooperative target tracking in hierarchical wireless sensor networks. The concept of leader-based information processing is conducted to achieve object positioning, considering a cluster-based network topology. Random timers and local information are applied to adaptively select a sub-cluster for the localization task. The proposed energy-efficient tracking algorithm allows each sub-cluster member to locally estimate the target position with a Bayesian filtering framework and a neural networking model, and further performs estimation fusion in the leader node with the covariance intersection algorithm. This paper evaluates the merits and trade-offs of the protocol design towards developing more efficient and practical algorithms for object position estimation.

Supervised Learning in CINets

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-01

supervised learning process is compared to that of Artificial Neural Network ( ANNs ), fuzzy logic rule set, and Bayesian network approaches...of both fuzzy logic systems and Artificial Neural Networks ( ANNs ). Like fuzzy logic systems, the CINet technique allows the use of human- intuitive...fuzzy rule systems [3] CINets also maintain features common to both fuzzy systems and ANNs . The technique can be be shown to possess the property

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodrich, Michael S.

2011-01-01

Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Hyperspectral Image Classification With Markov Random Fields and a Convolutional Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Xiangyong; Zhou, Feng; Xu, Lin; Meng, Deyu; Xu, Zongben; Paisley, John

2018-05-01

This paper presents a new supervised classification algorithm for remotely sensed hyperspectral image (HSI) which integrates spectral and spatial information in a unified Bayesian framework. First, we formulate the HSI classification problem from a Bayesian perspective. Then, we adopt a convolutional neural network (CNN) to learn the posterior class distributions using a patch-wise training strategy to better use the spatial information. Next, spatial information is further considered by placing a spatial smoothness prior on the labels. Finally, we iteratively update the CNN parameters using stochastic gradient decent (SGD) and update the class labels of all pixel vectors using an alpha-expansion min-cut-based algorithm. Compared with other state-of-the-art methods, the proposed classification method achieves better performance on one synthetic dataset and two benchmark HSI datasets in a number of experimental settings.

Error-based analysis of optimal tuning functions explains phenomena observed in sensory neurons.

PubMed

Yaeli, Steve; Meir, Ron

2010-01-01

Biological systems display impressive capabilities in effectively responding to environmental signals in real time. There is increasing evidence that organisms may indeed be employing near optimal Bayesian calculations in their decision-making. An intriguing question relates to the properties of optimal encoding methods, namely determining the properties of neural populations in sensory layers that optimize performance, subject to physiological constraints. Within an ecological theory of neural encoding/decoding, we show that optimal Bayesian performance requires neural adaptation which reflects environmental changes. Specifically, we predict that neuronal tuning functions possess an optimal width, which increases with prior uncertainty and environmental noise, and decreases with the decoding time window. Furthermore, even for static stimuli, we demonstrate that dynamic sensory tuning functions, acting at relatively short time scales, lead to improved performance. Interestingly, the narrowing of tuning functions as a function of time was recently observed in several biological systems. Such results set the stage for a functional theory which may explain the high reliability of sensory systems, and the utility of neuronal adaptation occurring at multiple time scales.

Time series forecasting using ERNN and QR based on Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pwasong, Augustine; Sathasivam, Saratha

2017-08-01

The Bayesian model averaging technique is a multi-model combination technique. The technique was employed to amalgamate the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN) technique with the quadratic regression (QR) technique. The amalgamation produced a hybrid technique known as the hybrid ERNN-QR technique. The potentials of forecasting with the hybrid technique are compared with the forecasting capabilities of individual techniques of ERNN and QR. The outcome revealed that the hybrid technique is superior to the individual techniques in the mean square error sense.

Predicting Flavonoid UGT Regioselectivity

PubMed Central

Jackson, Rhydon; Knisley, Debra; McIntosh, Cecilia; Pfeiffer, Phillip

2011-01-01

Machine learning was applied to a challenging and biologically significant protein classification problem: the prediction of avonoid UGT acceptor regioselectivity from primary sequence. Novel indices characterizing graphical models of residues were proposed and found to be widely distributed among existing amino acid indices and to cluster residues appropriately. UGT subsequences biochemically linked to regioselectivity were modeled as sets of index sequences. Several learning techniques incorporating these UGT models were compared with classifications based on standard sequence alignment scores. These techniques included an application of time series distance functions to protein classification. Time series distances defined on the index sequences were used in nearest neighbor and support vector machine classifiers. Additionally, Bayesian neural network classifiers were applied to the index sequences. The experiments identified improvements over the nearest neighbor and support vector machine classifications relying on standard alignment similarity scores, as well as strong correlations between specific subsequences and regioselectivities. PMID:21747849

A cost minimisation and Bayesian inference model predicts startle reflex modulation across species.

PubMed

Bach, Dominik R

2015-04-07

In many species, rapid defensive reflexes are paramount to escaping acute danger. These reflexes are modulated by the state of the environment. This is exemplified in fear-potentiated startle, a more vigorous startle response during conditioned anticipation of an unrelated threatening event. Extant explanations of this phenomenon build on descriptive models of underlying psychological states, or neural processes. Yet, they fail to predict invigorated startle during reward anticipation and instructed attention, and do not explain why startle reflex modulation evolved. Here, we fill this lacuna by developing a normative cost minimisation model based on Bayesian optimality principles. This model predicts the observed pattern of startle modification by rewards, punishments, instructed attention, and several other states. Moreover, the mathematical formalism furnishes predictions that can be tested experimentally. Comparing the model with existing data suggests a specific neural implementation of the underlying computations which yields close approximations to the optimal solution under most circumstances. This analysis puts startle modification into the framework of Bayesian decision theory and predictive coding, and illustrates the importance of an adaptive perspective to interpret defensive behaviour across species. Copyright © 2015 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Bayesian naturalness, simplicity, and testability applied to the B ‑ L MSSM GUT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fundira, Panashe; Purves, Austin

2018-04-01

Recent years have seen increased use of Bayesian model comparison to quantify notions such as naturalness, simplicity, and testability, especially in the area of supersymmetric model building. After demonstrating that Bayesian model comparison can resolve a paradox that has been raised in the literature concerning the naturalness of the proton mass, we apply Bayesian model comparison to GUTs, an area to which it has not been applied before. We find that the GUTs are substantially favored over the nonunifying puzzle model. Of the GUTs we consider, the B ‑ L MSSM GUT is the most favored, but the MSSM GUT is almost equally favored.

Support vector machines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garay, Michael J.; Mazzoni, Dominic; Davies, Roger; Wagstaff, Kiri

2004-01-01

Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are a type of supervised learning algorith,, other examples of which are Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Decision Trees, and Naive Bayesian Classifiers. Supervised learning algorithms are used to classify objects labled by a 'supervisor' - typically a human 'expert.'.

Multiscale Bayesian neural networks for soil water content estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jana, Raghavendra B.; Mohanty, Binayak P.; Springer, Everett P.

2008-08-01

Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been used for some time now to estimate soil hydraulic parameters from other available or more easily measurable soil properties. However, most such uses of ANNs as pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have been at matching spatial scales (1:1) of inputs and outputs. This approach assumes that the outputs are only required at the same scale as the input data. Unfortunately, this is rarely true. Different hydrologic, hydroclimatic, and contaminant transport models require soil hydraulic parameter data at different spatial scales, depending upon their grid sizes. While conventional (deterministic) ANNs have been traditionally used in these studies, the use of Bayesian training of ANNs is a more recent development. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework to derive soil water retention function including its uncertainty at the point or local scale using PTFs trained with coarser-scale Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO)-based soil data. The approach includes an ANN trained with Bayesian techniques as a PTF tool with training and validation data collected across spatial extents (scales) in two different regions in the United States. The two study areas include the Las Cruces Trench site in the Rio Grande basin of New Mexico, and the Southern Great Plains 1997 (SGP97) hydrology experimental region in Oklahoma. Each region-specific Bayesian ANN is trained using soil texture and bulk density data from the SSURGO database (scale 1:24,000), and predictions of the soil water contents at different pressure heads with point scale data (1:1) inputs are made. The resulting outputs are corrected for bias using both linear and nonlinear correction techniques. The results show good agreement between the soil water content values measured at the point scale and those predicted by the Bayesian ANN-based PTFs for both the study sites. Overall, Bayesian ANNs coupled with nonlinear bias correction are found to be very suitable tools for deriving soil hydraulic parameters at the local/fine scale from soil physical properties at coarser-scale and across different spatial extents. This approach could potentially be used for soil hydraulic properties estimation and downscaling.

Annealed Importance Sampling for Neural Mass Models

PubMed Central

Penny, Will; Sengupta, Biswa

2016-01-01

Neural Mass Models provide a compact description of the dynamical activity of cell populations in neocortical regions. Moreover, models of regional activity can be connected together into networks, and inferences made about the strength of connections, using M/EEG data and Bayesian inference. To date, however, Bayesian methods have been largely restricted to the Variational Laplace (VL) algorithm which assumes that the posterior distribution is Gaussian and finds model parameters that are only locally optimal. This paper explores the use of Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) to address these restrictions. We implement AIS using proposals derived from Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) which uses local gradient and curvature information for efficient exploration of parameter space. In terms of the estimation of Bayes factors, VL and AIS agree about which model is best but report different degrees of belief. Additionally, AIS finds better model parameters and we find evidence of non-Gaussianity in their posterior distribution. PMID:26942606

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

Perceptual decision making: drift-diffusion model is equivalent to a Bayesian model

PubMed Central

Bitzer, Sebastian; Park, Hame; Blankenburg, Felix; Kiebel, Stefan J.

2014-01-01

Behavioral data obtained with perceptual decision making experiments are typically analyzed with the drift-diffusion model. This parsimonious model accumulates noisy pieces of evidence toward a decision bound to explain the accuracy and reaction times of subjects. Recently, Bayesian models have been proposed to explain how the brain extracts information from noisy input as typically presented in perceptual decision making tasks. It has long been known that the drift-diffusion model is tightly linked with such functional Bayesian models but the precise relationship of the two mechanisms was never made explicit. Using a Bayesian model, we derived the equations which relate parameter values between these models. In practice we show that this equivalence is useful when fitting multi-subject data. We further show that the Bayesian model suggests different decision variables which all predict equal responses and discuss how these may be discriminated based on neural correlates of accumulated evidence. In addition, we discuss extensions to the Bayesian model which would be difficult to derive for the drift-diffusion model. We suggest that these and other extensions may be highly useful for deriving new experiments which test novel hypotheses. PMID:24616689

A biologically inspired neural model for visual and proprioceptive integration including sensory training.

PubMed

Saidi, Maryam; Towhidkhah, Farzad; Gharibzadeh, Shahriar; Lari, Abdolaziz Azizi

2013-12-01

Humans perceive the surrounding world by integration of information through different sensory modalities. Earlier models of multisensory integration rely mainly on traditional Bayesian and causal Bayesian inferences for single causal (source) and two causal (for two senses such as visual and auditory systems), respectively. In this paper a new recurrent neural model is presented for integration of visual and proprioceptive information. This model is based on population coding which is able to mimic multisensory integration of neural centers in the human brain. The simulation results agree with those achieved by casual Bayesian inference. The model can also simulate the sensory training process of visual and proprioceptive information in human. Training process in multisensory integration is a point with less attention in the literature before. The effect of proprioceptive training on multisensory perception was investigated through a set of experiments in our previous study. The current study, evaluates the effect of both modalities, i.e., visual and proprioceptive training and compares them with each other through a set of new experiments. In these experiments, the subject was asked to move his/her hand in a circle and estimate its position. The experiments were performed on eight subjects with proprioception training and eight subjects with visual training. Results of the experiments show three important points: (1) visual learning rate is significantly more than that of proprioception; (2) means of visual and proprioceptive errors are decreased by training but statistical analysis shows that this decrement is significant for proprioceptive error and non-significant for visual error, and (3) visual errors in training phase even in the beginning of it, is much less than errors of the main test stage because in the main test, the subject has to focus on two senses. The results of the experiments in this paper is in agreement with the results of the neural model simulation.

Refining mass formulas for astrophysical applications: A Bayesian neural network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, R.; Piekarewicz, J.

2017-10-01

Background: Exotic nuclei, particularly those near the drip lines, are at the core of one of the fundamental questions driving nuclear structure and astrophysics today: What are the limits of nuclear binding? Exotic nuclei play a critical role in both informing theoretical models as well as in our understanding of the origin of the heavy elements. Purpose: Our aim is to refine existing mass models through the training of an artificial neural network that will mitigate the large model discrepancies far away from stability. Methods: The basic paradigm of our two-pronged approach is an existing mass model that captures as much as possible of the underlying physics followed by the implementation of a Bayesian neural network (BNN) refinement to account for the missing physics. Bayesian inference is employed to determine the parameters of the neural network so that model predictions may be accompanied by theoretical uncertainties. Results: Despite the undeniable quality of the mass models adopted in this work, we observe a significant improvement (of about 40%) after the BNN refinement is implemented. Indeed, in the specific case of the Duflo-Zuker mass formula, we find that the rms deviation relative to experiment is reduced from σrms=0.503 MeV to σrms=0.286 MeV. These newly refined mass tables are used to map the neutron drip lines (or rather "drip bands") and to study a few critical r -process nuclei. Conclusions: The BNN approach is highly successful in refining the predictions of existing mass models. In particular, the large discrepancy displayed by the original "bare" models in regions where experimental data are unavailable is considerably quenched after the BNN refinement. This lends credence to our approach and has motivated us to publish refined mass tables that we trust will be helpful for future astrophysical applications.

Bayesian Mapping Reveals That Attention Boosts Neural Responses to Predicted and Unpredicted Stimuli.

PubMed

Garrido, Marta I; Rowe, Elise G; Halász, Veronika; Mattingley, Jason B

2018-05-01

Predictive coding posits that the human brain continually monitors the environment for regularities and detects inconsistencies. It is unclear, however, what effect attention has on expectation processes, as there have been relatively few studies and the results of these have yielded contradictory findings. Here, we employed Bayesian model comparison to adjudicate between 2 alternative computational models. The "Opposition" model states that attention boosts neural responses equally to predicted and unpredicted stimuli, whereas the "Interaction" model assumes that attentional boosting of neural signals depends on the level of predictability. We designed a novel, audiospatial attention task that orthogonally manipulated attention and prediction by playing oddball sequences in either the attended or unattended ear. We observed sensory prediction error responses, with electroencephalography, across all attentional manipulations. Crucially, posterior probability maps revealed that, overall, the Opposition model better explained scalp and source data, suggesting that attention boosts responses to predicted and unpredicted stimuli equally. Furthermore, Dynamic Causal Modeling showed that these Opposition effects were expressed in plastic changes within the mismatch negativity network. Our findings provide empirical evidence for a computational model of the opposing interplay of attention and expectation in the brain.

Effect of missing data on multitask prediction methods.

PubMed

de la Vega de León, Antonio; Chen, Beining; Gillet, Valerie J

2018-05-22

There has been a growing interest in multitask prediction in chemoinformatics, helped by the increasing use of deep neural networks in this field. This technique is applied to multitarget data sets, where compounds have been tested against different targets, with the aim of developing models to predict a profile of biological activities for a given compound. However, multitarget data sets tend to be sparse; i.e., not all compound-target combinations have experimental values. There has been little research on the effect of missing data on the performance of multitask methods. We have used two complete data sets to simulate sparseness by removing data from the training set. Different models to remove the data were compared. These sparse sets were used to train two different multitask methods, deep neural networks and Macau, which is a Bayesian probabilistic matrix factorization technique. Results from both methods were remarkably similar and showed that the performance decrease because of missing data is at first small before accelerating after large amounts of data are removed. This work provides a first approximation to assess how much data is required to produce good performance in multitask prediction exercises.

Probabilistic inference in discrete spaces can be implemented into networks of LIF neurons.

PubMed

Probst, Dimitri; Petrovici, Mihai A; Bytschok, Ilja; Bill, Johannes; Pecevski, Dejan; Schemmel, Johannes; Meier, Karlheinz

2015-01-01

The means by which cortical neural networks are able to efficiently solve inference problems remains an open question in computational neuroscience. Recently, abstract models of Bayesian computation in neural circuits have been proposed, but they lack a mechanistic interpretation at the single-cell level. In this article, we describe a complete theoretical framework for building networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons that can sample from arbitrary probability distributions over binary random variables. We test our framework for a model inference task based on a psychophysical phenomenon (the Knill-Kersten optical illusion) and further assess its performance when applied to randomly generated distributions. As the local computations performed by the network strongly depend on the interaction between neurons, we compare several types of couplings mediated by either single synapses or interneuron chains. Due to its robustness to substrate imperfections such as parameter noise and background noise correlations, our model is particularly interesting for implementation on novel, neuro-inspired computing architectures, which can thereby serve as a fast, low-power substrate for solving real-world inference problems.

Probabilistic inference in discrete spaces can be implemented into networks of LIF neurons

PubMed Central

Probst, Dimitri; Petrovici, Mihai A.; Bytschok, Ilja; Bill, Johannes; Pecevski, Dejan; Schemmel, Johannes; Meier, Karlheinz

2015-01-01

The means by which cortical neural networks are able to efficiently solve inference problems remains an open question in computational neuroscience. Recently, abstract models of Bayesian computation in neural circuits have been proposed, but they lack a mechanistic interpretation at the single-cell level. In this article, we describe a complete theoretical framework for building networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons that can sample from arbitrary probability distributions over binary random variables. We test our framework for a model inference task based on a psychophysical phenomenon (the Knill-Kersten optical illusion) and further assess its performance when applied to randomly generated distributions. As the local computations performed by the network strongly depend on the interaction between neurons, we compare several types of couplings mediated by either single synapses or interneuron chains. Due to its robustness to substrate imperfections such as parameter noise and background noise correlations, our model is particularly interesting for implementation on novel, neuro-inspired computing architectures, which can thereby serve as a fast, low-power substrate for solving real-world inference problems. PMID:25729361

On the Adequacy of Bayesian Evaluations of Categorization Models: Reply to Vanpaemel and Lee (2012)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wills, Andy J.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.

2012-01-01

Vanpaemel and Lee (2012) argued, and we agree, that the comparison of formal models can be facilitated by Bayesian methods. However, Bayesian methods neither precede nor supplant our proposals (Wills & Pothos, 2012), as Bayesian methods can be applied both to our proposals and to their polar opposites. Furthermore, the use of Bayesian methods to…

One day prediction of nighttime VLF amplitudes using nonlinear autoregression and neural network modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santosa, H.; Hobara, Y.

2017-01-01

The electric field amplitude of very low frequency (VLF) transmitter from Hawaii (NPM) has been continuously recorded at Chofu (CHF), Tokyo, Japan. The VLF amplitude variability indicates lower ionospheric perturbation in the D region (60-90 km altitude range) around the NPM-CHF propagation path. We carried out the prediction of daily nighttime mean VLF amplitude by using Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input Neural Network (NARX NN). The NARX NN model, which was built based on the daily input variables of various physical parameters such as stratospheric temperature, total column ozone, cosmic rays, Dst, and Kp indices possess good accuracy during the model building. The fitted model was constructed within the training period from 1 January 2011 to 4 February 2013 by using three algorithms, namely, Bayesian Neural Network (BRANN), Levenberg Marquardt Neural Network (LMANN), and Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG). The LMANN has the largest Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of 0.94 and smallest root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.19 dB. The constructed models by using LMANN were applied to predict the VLF amplitude from 5 February 2013 to 31 December 2013. As a result the one step (1 day) ahead predicted nighttime VLF amplitude has the r of 0.93 and RMSE of 2.25 dB. We conclude that the model built according to the proposed methodology provides good predictions of the electric field amplitude of VLF waves for NPM-CHF (midlatitude) propagation path.

Operation quality assessment model for video conference system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Bangshi; Qi, Feng; Shao, Sujie; Wang, Ying; Li, Weijian

2018-01-01

Video conference system has become an important support platform for smart grid operation and management, its operation quality is gradually concerning grid enterprise. First, the evaluation indicator system covering network, business and operation maintenance aspects was established on basis of video conference system's operation statistics. Then, the operation quality assessment model combining genetic algorithm with regularized BP neural network was proposed, which outputs operation quality level of the system within a time period and provides company manager with some optimization advice. The simulation results show that the proposed evaluation model offers the advantages of fast convergence and high prediction accuracy in contrast with regularized BP neural network, and its generalization ability is superior to LM-BP neural network and Bayesian BP neural network.

Prediction of adverse outcomes of acute coronary syndrome using intelligent fusion of triage information with HUMINT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCullough, Claire L.; Novobilski, Andrew J.; Fesmire, Francis M.

2006-04-01

Faculty from the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga and the University of Tennessee College of Medicine, Chattanooga Unit, have used data mining techniques and neural networks to examine a set of fourteen features, data items, and HUMINT assessments for 2,148 emergency room patients with symptoms possibly indicative of Acute Coronary Syndrome. Specifically, the authors have generated Bayesian networks describing linkages and causality in the data, and have compared them with neural networks. The data includes objective information routinely collected during triage and the physician's initial case assessment, a HUMINT appraisal. Both the neural network and the Bayesian network were used to fuse the disparate types of information with the goal of forecasting thirty-day adverse patient outcome. This paper presents details of the methods of data fusion including both the data mining techniques and the neural network. Results are compared using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves describing the outcomes of both methods, both using only objective features and including the subjective physician's assessment. While preliminary, the results of this continuing study are significant both from the perspective of potential use of the intelligent fusion of biomedical informatics to aid the physician in prescribing treatment necessary to prevent serious adverse outcome from ACS and as a model of fusion of objective data with subjective HUMINT assessment. Possible future work includes extension of successfully demonstrated intelligent fusion methods to other medical applications, and use of decision level fusion to combine results from data mining and neural net approaches for even more accurate outcome prediction.

Reducing the computational footprint for real-time BCPNN learning

PubMed Central

Vogginger, Bernhard; Schüffny, René; Lansner, Anders; Cederström, Love; Partzsch, Johannes; Höppner, Sebastian

2015-01-01

The implementation of synaptic plasticity in neural simulation or neuromorphic hardware is usually very resource-intensive, often requiring a compromise between efficiency and flexibility. A versatile, but computationally-expensive plasticity mechanism is provided by the Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) paradigm. Building upon Bayesian statistics, and having clear links to biological plasticity processes, the BCPNN learning rule has been applied in many fields, ranging from data classification, associative memory, reward-based learning, probabilistic inference to cortical attractor memory networks. In the spike-based version of this learning rule the pre-, postsynaptic and coincident activity is traced in three low-pass-filtering stages, requiring a total of eight state variables, whose dynamics are typically simulated with the fixed step size Euler method. We derive analytic solutions allowing an efficient event-driven implementation of this learning rule. Further speedup is achieved by first rewriting the model which reduces the number of basic arithmetic operations per update to one half, and second by using look-up tables for the frequently calculated exponential decay. Ultimately, in a typical use case, the simulation using our approach is more than one order of magnitude faster than with the fixed step size Euler method. Aiming for a small memory footprint per BCPNN synapse, we also evaluate the use of fixed-point numbers for the state variables, and assess the number of bits required to achieve same or better accuracy than with the conventional explicit Euler method. All of this will allow a real-time simulation of a reduced cortex model based on BCPNN in high performance computing. More important, with the analytic solution at hand and due to the reduced memory bandwidth, the learning rule can be efficiently implemented in dedicated or existing digital neuromorphic hardware. PMID:25657618

Reducing the computational footprint for real-time BCPNN learning.

PubMed

Vogginger, Bernhard; Schüffny, René; Lansner, Anders; Cederström, Love; Partzsch, Johannes; Höppner, Sebastian

2015-01-01

The implementation of synaptic plasticity in neural simulation or neuromorphic hardware is usually very resource-intensive, often requiring a compromise between efficiency and flexibility. A versatile, but computationally-expensive plasticity mechanism is provided by the Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) paradigm. Building upon Bayesian statistics, and having clear links to biological plasticity processes, the BCPNN learning rule has been applied in many fields, ranging from data classification, associative memory, reward-based learning, probabilistic inference to cortical attractor memory networks. In the spike-based version of this learning rule the pre-, postsynaptic and coincident activity is traced in three low-pass-filtering stages, requiring a total of eight state variables, whose dynamics are typically simulated with the fixed step size Euler method. We derive analytic solutions allowing an efficient event-driven implementation of this learning rule. Further speedup is achieved by first rewriting the model which reduces the number of basic arithmetic operations per update to one half, and second by using look-up tables for the frequently calculated exponential decay. Ultimately, in a typical use case, the simulation using our approach is more than one order of magnitude faster than with the fixed step size Euler method. Aiming for a small memory footprint per BCPNN synapse, we also evaluate the use of fixed-point numbers for the state variables, and assess the number of bits required to achieve same or better accuracy than with the conventional explicit Euler method. All of this will allow a real-time simulation of a reduced cortex model based on BCPNN in high performance computing. More important, with the analytic solution at hand and due to the reduced memory bandwidth, the learning rule can be efficiently implemented in dedicated or existing digital neuromorphic hardware.

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

Applying Bayesian statistics to the study of psychological trauma: A suggestion for future research.

PubMed

Yalch, Matthew M

2016-03-01

Several contemporary researchers have noted the virtues of Bayesian methods of data analysis. Although debates continue about whether conventional or Bayesian statistics is the "better" approach for researchers in general, there are reasons why Bayesian methods may be well suited to the study of psychological trauma in particular. This article describes how Bayesian statistics offers practical solutions to the problems of data non-normality, small sample size, and missing data common in research on psychological trauma. After a discussion of these problems and the effects they have on trauma research, this article explains the basic philosophical and statistical foundations of Bayesian statistics and how it provides solutions to these problems using an applied example. Results of the literature review and the accompanying example indicates the utility of Bayesian statistics in addressing problems common in trauma research. Bayesian statistics provides a set of methodological tools and a broader philosophical framework that is useful for trauma researchers. Methodological resources are also provided so that interested readers can learn more. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Construction of monitoring model and algorithm design on passenger security during shipping based on improved Bayesian network.

PubMed

Wang, Jiali; Zhang, Qingnian; Ji, Wenfeng

2014-01-01

A large number of data is needed by the computation of the objective Bayesian network, but the data is hard to get in actual computation. The calculation method of Bayesian network was improved in this paper, and the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was obtained. Then, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was used to reason Bayesian network model when the data is limited. The security of passengers during shipping is affected by various factors, and it is hard to predict and control. The index system that has the impact on the passenger safety during shipping was established on basis of the multifield coupling theory in this paper. Meanwhile, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was applied to monitor the security of passengers in the shipping process. The model was applied to monitor the passenger safety during shipping of a shipping company in Hainan, and the effectiveness of this model was examined. This research work provides guidance for guaranteeing security of passengers during shipping.

Construction of Monitoring Model and Algorithm Design on Passenger Security during Shipping Based on Improved Bayesian Network

PubMed Central

Wang, Jiali; Zhang, Qingnian; Ji, Wenfeng

2014-01-01

A large number of data is needed by the computation of the objective Bayesian network, but the data is hard to get in actual computation. The calculation method of Bayesian network was improved in this paper, and the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was obtained. Then, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was used to reason Bayesian network model when the data is limited. The security of passengers during shipping is affected by various factors, and it is hard to predict and control. The index system that has the impact on the passenger safety during shipping was established on basis of the multifield coupling theory in this paper. Meanwhile, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was applied to monitor the security of passengers in the shipping process. The model was applied to monitor the passenger safety during shipping of a shipping company in Hainan, and the effectiveness of this model was examined. This research work provides guidance for guaranteeing security of passengers during shipping. PMID:25254227

Detection of fraudulent financial statements using the hybrid data mining approach.

PubMed

Chen, Suduan

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to construct a valid and rigorous fraudulent financial statement detection model. The research objects are companies which experienced both fraudulent and non-fraudulent financial statements between the years 2002 and 2013. In the first stage, two decision tree algorithms, including the classification and regression trees (CART) and the Chi squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) are applied in the selection of major variables. The second stage combines CART, CHAID, Bayesian belief network, support vector machine and artificial neural network in order to construct fraudulent financial statement detection models. According to the results, the detection performance of the CHAID-CART model is the most effective, with an overall accuracy of 87.97 % (the FFS detection accuracy is 92.69 %).

Predictive Ensemble Decoding of Acoustical Features Explains Context-Dependent Receptive Fields.

PubMed

Yildiz, Izzet B; Mesgarani, Nima; Deneve, Sophie

2016-12-07

A primary goal of auditory neuroscience is to identify the sound features extracted and represented by auditory neurons. Linear encoding models, which describe neural responses as a function of the stimulus, have been primarily used for this purpose. Here, we provide theoretical arguments and experimental evidence in support of an alternative approach, based on decoding the stimulus from the neural response. We used a Bayesian normative approach to predict the responses of neurons detecting relevant auditory features, despite ambiguities and noise. We compared the model predictions to recordings from the primary auditory cortex of ferrets and found that: (1) the decoding filters of auditory neurons resemble the filters learned from the statistics of speech sounds; (2) the decoding model captures the dynamics of responses better than a linear encoding model of similar complexity; and (3) the decoding model accounts for the accuracy with which the stimulus is represented in neural activity, whereas linear encoding model performs very poorly. Most importantly, our model predicts that neuronal responses are fundamentally shaped by "explaining away," a divisive competition between alternative interpretations of the auditory scene. Neural responses in the auditory cortex are dynamic, nonlinear, and hard to predict. Traditionally, encoding models have been used to describe neural responses as a function of the stimulus. However, in addition to external stimulation, neural activity is strongly modulated by the responses of other neurons in the network. We hypothesized that auditory neurons aim to collectively decode their stimulus. In particular, a stimulus feature that is decoded (or explained away) by one neuron is not explained by another. We demonstrated that this novel Bayesian decoding model is better at capturing the dynamic responses of cortical neurons in ferrets. Whereas the linear encoding model poorly reflects selectivity of neurons, the decoding model can account for the strong nonlinearities observed in neural data. Copyright © 2016 Yildiz et al.

Graph cuts and neural networks for segmentation and porosity quantification in Synchrotron Radiation X-ray μCT of an igneous rock sample.

PubMed

Meneses, Anderson Alvarenga de Moura; Palheta, Dayara Bastos; Pinheiro, Christiano Jorge Gomes; Barroso, Regina Cely Rodrigues

2018-03-01

X-ray Synchrotron Radiation Micro-Computed Tomography (SR-µCT) allows a better visualization in three dimensions with a higher spatial resolution, contributing for the discovery of aspects that could not be observable through conventional radiography. The automatic segmentation of SR-µCT scans is highly valuable due to its innumerous applications in geological sciences, especially for morphology, typology, and characterization of rocks. For a great number of µCT scan slices, a manual process of segmentation would be impractical, either for the time expended and for the accuracy of results. Aiming the automatic segmentation of SR-µCT geological sample images, we applied and compared Energy Minimization via Graph Cuts (GC) algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), as well as the well-known K-means and Fuzzy C-Means algorithms. The Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC), Sensitivity and Precision were the metrics used for comparison. Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests were applied and the best methods were the GC algorithms and ANNs (with Levenberg-Marquardt and Bayesian Regularization). For those algorithms, an approximate Dice Similarity Coefficient of 95% was achieved. Our results confirm the possibility of usage of those algorithms for segmentation and posterior quantification of porosity of an igneous rock sample SR-µCT scan. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning what to expect (in visual perception)

PubMed Central

Seriès, Peggy; Seitz, Aaron R.

2013-01-01

Expectations are known to greatly affect our experience of the world. A growing theory in computational neuroscience is that perception can be successfully described using Bayesian inference models and that the brain is “Bayes-optimal” under some constraints. In this context, expectations are particularly interesting, because they can be viewed as prior beliefs in the statistical inference process. A number of questions remain unsolved, however, for example: How fast do priors change over time? Are there limits in the complexity of the priors that can be learned? How do an individual’s priors compare to the true scene statistics? Can we unlearn priors that are thought to correspond to natural scene statistics? Where and what are the neural substrate of priors? Focusing on the perception of visual motion, we here review recent studies from our laboratories and others addressing these issues. We discuss how these data on motion perception fit within the broader literature on perceptual Bayesian priors, perceptual expectations, and statistical and perceptual learning and review the possible neural basis of priors. PMID:24187536

Driver Fatigue Classification With Independent Component by Entropy Rate Bound Minimization Analysis in an EEG-Based System.

PubMed

Chai, Rifai; Naik, Ganesh R; Nguyen, Tuan Nghia; Ling, Sai Ho; Tran, Yvonne; Craig, Ashley; Nguyen, Hung T

2017-05-01

This paper presents a two-class electroencephal-ography-based classification for classifying of driver fatigue (fatigue state versus alert state) from 43 healthy participants. The system uses independent component by entropy rate bound minimization analysis (ERBM-ICA) for the source separation, autoregressive (AR) modeling for the features extraction, and Bayesian neural network for the classification algorithm. The classification results demonstrate a sensitivity of 89.7%, a specificity of 86.8%, and an accuracy of 88.2%. The combination of ERBM-ICA (source separator), AR (feature extractor), and Bayesian neural network (classifier) provides the best outcome with a p-value < 0.05 with the highest value of area under the receiver operating curve (AUC-ROC = 0.93) against other methods such as power spectral density as feature extractor (AUC-ROC = 0.81). The results of this study suggest the method could be utilized effectively for a countermeasure device for driver fatigue identification and other adverse event applications.

Bayesian convolutional neural network based MRI brain extraction on nonhuman primates.

PubMed

Zhao, Gengyan; Liu, Fang; Oler, Jonathan A; Meyerand, Mary E; Kalin, Ned H; Birn, Rasmus M

2018-07-15

Brain extraction or skull stripping of magnetic resonance images (MRI) is an essential step in neuroimaging studies, the accuracy of which can severely affect subsequent image processing procedures. Current automatic brain extraction methods demonstrate good results on human brains, but are often far from satisfactory on nonhuman primates, which are a necessary part of neuroscience research. To overcome the challenges of brain extraction in nonhuman primates, we propose a fully-automated brain extraction pipeline combining deep Bayesian convolutional neural network (CNN) and fully connected three-dimensional (3D) conditional random field (CRF). The deep Bayesian CNN, Bayesian SegNet, is used as the core segmentation engine. As a probabilistic network, it is not only able to perform accurate high-resolution pixel-wise brain segmentation, but also capable of measuring the model uncertainty by Monte Carlo sampling with dropout in the testing stage. Then, fully connected 3D CRF is used to refine the probability result from Bayesian SegNet in the whole 3D context of the brain volume. The proposed method was evaluated with a manually brain-extracted dataset comprising T1w images of 100 nonhuman primates. Our method outperforms six popular publicly available brain extraction packages and three well-established deep learning based methods with a mean Dice coefficient of 0.985 and a mean average symmetric surface distance of 0.220 mm. A better performance against all the compared methods was verified by statistical tests (all p-values < 10 -4 , two-sided, Bonferroni corrected). The maximum uncertainty of the model on nonhuman primate brain extraction has a mean value of 0.116 across all the 100 subjects. The behavior of the uncertainty was also studied, which shows the uncertainty increases as the training set size decreases, the number of inconsistent labels in the training set increases, or the inconsistency between the training set and the testing set increases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a Bayesian Estimator for Audio-Visual Integration: A Neurocomputational Study

PubMed Central

Ursino, Mauro; Crisafulli, Andrea; di Pellegrino, Giuseppe; Magosso, Elisa; Cuppini, Cristiano

2017-01-01

The brain integrates information from different sensory modalities to generate a coherent and accurate percept of external events. Several experimental studies suggest that this integration follows the principle of Bayesian estimate. However, the neural mechanisms responsible for this behavior, and its development in a multisensory environment, are still insufficiently understood. We recently presented a neural network model of audio-visual integration (Neural Computation, 2017) to investigate how a Bayesian estimator can spontaneously develop from the statistics of external stimuli. Model assumes the presence of two unimodal areas (auditory and visual) topologically organized. Neurons in each area receive an input from the external environment, computed as the inner product of the sensory-specific stimulus and the receptive field synapses, and a cross-modal input from neurons of the other modality. Based on sensory experience, synapses were trained via Hebbian potentiation and a decay term. Aim of this work is to improve the previous model, including a more realistic distribution of visual stimuli: visual stimuli have a higher spatial accuracy at the central azimuthal coordinate and a lower accuracy at the periphery. Moreover, their prior probability is higher at the center, and decreases toward the periphery. Simulations show that, after training, the receptive fields of visual and auditory neurons shrink to reproduce the accuracy of the input (both at the center and at the periphery in the visual case), thus realizing the likelihood estimate of unimodal spatial position. Moreover, the preferred positions of visual neurons contract toward the center, thus encoding the prior probability of the visual input. Finally, a prior probability of the co-occurrence of audio-visual stimuli is encoded in the cross-modal synapses. The model is able to simulate the main properties of a Bayesian estimator and to reproduce behavioral data in all conditions examined. In particular, in unisensory conditions the visual estimates exhibit a bias toward the fovea, which increases with the level of noise. In cross modal conditions, the SD of the estimates decreases when using congruent audio-visual stimuli, and a ventriloquism effect becomes evident in case of spatially disparate stimuli. Moreover, the ventriloquism decreases with the eccentricity. PMID:29046631

Semi-supervised vibration-based classification and condition monitoring of compressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potočnik, Primož; Govekar, Edvard

2017-09-01

Semi-supervised vibration-based classification and condition monitoring of the reciprocating compressors installed in refrigeration appliances is proposed in this paper. The method addresses the problem of industrial condition monitoring where prior class definitions are often not available or difficult to obtain from local experts. The proposed method combines feature extraction, principal component analysis, and statistical analysis for the extraction of initial class representatives, and compares the capability of various classification methods, including discriminant analysis (DA), neural networks (NN), support vector machines (SVM), and extreme learning machines (ELM). The use of the method is demonstrated on a case study which was based on industrially acquired vibration measurements of reciprocating compressors during the production of refrigeration appliances. The paper presents a comparative qualitative analysis of the applied classifiers, confirming the good performance of several nonlinear classifiers. If the model parameters are properly selected, then very good classification performance can be obtained from NN trained by Bayesian regularization, SVM and ELM classifiers. The method can be effectively applied for the industrial condition monitoring of compressors.

Dreaming of Atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldmann, Ingo

2016-10-01

Radiative transfer retrievals have become the standard in modelling of exoplanetary transmission and emission spectra. Analysing currently available observations of exoplanetary atmospheres often invoke large and correlated parameter spaces that can be difficult to map or constrain.To address these issues, we have developed the Tau-REx (tau-retrieval of exoplanets) retrieval and the RobERt spectral recognition algorithms. Tau-REx is a bayesian atmospheric retrieval framework using Nested Sampling and cluster computing to fully map these large correlated parameter spaces. Nonetheless, data volumes can become prohibitively large and we must often select a subset of potential molecular/atomic absorbers in an atmosphere.In the era of open-source, automated and self-sufficient retrieval algorithms, such manual input should be avoided. User dependent input could, in worst case scenarios, lead to incomplete models and biases in the retrieval. The RobERt algorithm is build to address these issues. RobERt is a deep belief neural (DBN) networks trained to accurately recognise molecular signatures for a wide range of planets, atmospheric thermal profiles and compositions. Using these deep neural networks, we work towards retrieval algorithms that themselves understand the nature of the observed spectra, are able to learn from current and past data and make sensible qualitative preselections of atmospheric opacities to be used for the quantitative stage of the retrieval process.In this talk I will discuss how neural networks and Bayesian Nested Sampling can be used to solve highly degenerate spectral retrieval problems and what 'dreaming' neural networks can tell us about atmospheric characteristics.

An application of artificial neural intelligence for personal dose assessment using a multi-area OSL dosimetry system.

PubMed

Lee, S Y; Kim, B H; Lee, K J

2001-06-01

Significant advances have been made in recent years to improve measurement technology and performance of phosphor materials in the fields of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dosimetry. Pulsed and continuous wave OSL studies recently carried out on alpha-Al2O3:C have shown that the material seems to be the most promising for routine application of OSL for dosimetric purposes. The main objective of the study is to propose a new personal dosimetry system using alpha-Al2O3:C by taking advantage of its optical properties and energy dependencies. In the process of the study, a new dose assessment algorithm was developed using artificial neural networks in hopes of achieving a higher degree of accuracy and precision in personal OSL dosimetry system. The original hypothesis of this work is that the spectral information of X- and gamma-ray fields may be obtained by the analysis of the response of a multi-element system. In this study, a feedforward neural network using the error back-propagation method with Bayesian optimization was applied for the response unfolding procedure. The validation of the proposed algorithm was investigated by unfolding the 10 measured responses of alpha-Al2O3:C for arbitrarily mixed photon fields which range from 20 to 662 keV. c2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

PubMed

Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

2016-08-01

Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

2016-05-01

Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert elicitation methodology is developed and applied to the real-world test case in order to provide a road map for the use of fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater modeling applications.

Data Mining in Child Welfare.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schoech, Dick; Quinn, Andrew; Rycraft, Joan R.

2000-01-01

Examines the historical and larger context of data mining and describes data mining processes, techniques, and tools. Illustrates these using a child welfare dataset concerning the employee turnover that is mined, using logistic regression and a Bayesian neural network. Discusses the data mining process, the resulting models, their predictive…

Bayesian Statistics for Biological Data: Pedigree Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stanfield, William D.; Carlton, Matthew A.

2004-01-01

The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.

Prediction in Health Domain Using Bayesian Networks Optimization Based on Induction Learning Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felgaer, Pablo; Britos, Paola; García-Martínez, Ramón

A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph in which each node represents a variable and each arc a probabilistic dependency; they are used to provide: a compact form to represent the knowledge and flexible methods of reasoning. Obtaining it from data is a learning process that is divided in two steps: structural learning and parametric learning. In this paper we define an automatic learning method that optimizes the Bayesian networks applied to classification, using a hybrid method of learning that combines the advantages of the induction techniques of the decision trees (TDIDT-C4.5) with those of the Bayesian networks. The resulting method is applied to prediction in health domain.

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S.; Coc, A.

The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We presentmore » astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.« less

Cortical Hierarchies Perform Bayesian Causal Inference in Multisensory Perception

PubMed Central

Rohe, Tim; Noppeney, Uta

2015-01-01

To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the “causal inference problem.” Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation). At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion). Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world. PMID:25710328

The Bayesian Revolution Approaches Psychological Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shultz, Thomas R.

2007-01-01

This commentary reviews five articles that apply Bayesian ideas to psychological development, some with psychology experiments, some with computational modeling, and some with both experiments and modeling. The reviewed work extends the current Bayesian revolution into tasks often studied in children, such as causal learning and word learning, and…

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

Learning Instance-Specific Predictive Models

PubMed Central

Visweswaran, Shyam; Cooper, Gregory F.

2013-01-01

This paper introduces a Bayesian algorithm for constructing predictive models from data that are optimized to predict a target variable well for a particular instance. This algorithm learns Markov blanket models, carries out Bayesian model averaging over a set of models to predict a target variable of the instance at hand, and employs an instance-specific heuristic to locate a set of suitable models to average over. We call this method the instance-specific Markov blanket (ISMB) algorithm. The ISMB algorithm was evaluated on 21 UCI data sets using five different performance measures and its performance was compared to that of several commonly used predictive algorithms, including nave Bayes, C4.5 decision tree, logistic regression, neural networks, k-Nearest Neighbor, Lazy Bayesian Rules, and AdaBoost. Over all the data sets, the ISMB algorithm performed better on average on all performance measures against all the comparison algorithms. PMID:25045325

Bayesian analogy with relational transformations.

PubMed

Lu, Hongjing; Chen, Dawn; Holyoak, Keith J

2012-07-01

How can humans acquire relational representations that enable analogical inference and other forms of high-level reasoning? Using comparative relations as a model domain, we explore the possibility that bottom-up learning mechanisms applied to objects coded as feature vectors can yield representations of relations sufficient to solve analogy problems. We introduce Bayesian analogy with relational transformations (BART) and apply the model to the task of learning first-order comparative relations (e.g., larger, smaller, fiercer, meeker) from a set of animal pairs. Inputs are coded by vectors of continuous-valued features, based either on human magnitude ratings, normed feature ratings (De Deyne et al., 2008), or outputs of the topics model (Griffiths, Steyvers, & Tenenbaum, 2007). Bootstrapping from empirical priors, the model is able to induce first-order relations represented as probabilistic weight distributions, even when given positive examples only. These learned representations allow classification of novel instantiations of the relations and yield a symbolic distance effect of the sort obtained with both humans and other primates. BART then transforms its learned weight distributions by importance-guided mapping, thereby placing distinct dimensions into correspondence. These transformed representations allow BART to reliably solve 4-term analogies (e.g., larger:smaller::fiercer:meeker), a type of reasoning that is arguably specific to humans. Our results provide a proof-of-concept that structured analogies can be solved with representations induced from unstructured feature vectors by mechanisms that operate in a largely bottom-up fashion. We discuss potential implications for algorithmic and neural models of relational thinking, as well as for the evolution of abstract thought. Copyright 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Validating neural-network refinements of nuclear mass models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, R.; Piekarewicz, J.

2018-01-01

Background: Nuclear astrophysics centers on the role of nuclear physics in the cosmos. In particular, nuclear masses at the limits of stability are critical in the development of stellar structure and the origin of the elements. Purpose: We aim to test and validate the predictions of recently refined nuclear mass models against the newly published AME2016 compilation. Methods: The basic paradigm underlining the recently refined nuclear mass models is based on existing state-of-the-art models that are subsequently refined through the training of an artificial neural network. Bayesian inference is used to determine the parameters of the neural network so that statistical uncertainties are provided for all model predictions. Results: We observe a significant improvement in the Bayesian neural network (BNN) predictions relative to the corresponding "bare" models when compared to the nearly 50 new masses reported in the AME2016 compilation. Further, AME2016 estimates for the handful of impactful isotopes in the determination of r -process abundances are found to be in fairly good agreement with our theoretical predictions. Indeed, the BNN-improved Duflo-Zuker model predicts a root-mean-square deviation relative to experiment of σrms≃400 keV. Conclusions: Given the excellent performance of the BNN refinement in confronting the recently published AME2016 compilation, we are confident of its critical role in our quest for mass models of the highest quality. Moreover, as uncertainty quantification is at the core of the BNN approach, the improved mass models are in a unique position to identify those nuclei that will have the strongest impact in resolving some of the outstanding questions in nuclear astrophysics.

Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

2014-01-01

This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

Distributed multisensory integration in a recurrent network model through supervised learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, He; Wong, K. Y. Michael

Sensory integration between different modalities has been extensively studied. It is suggested that the brain integrates signals from different modalities in a Bayesian optimal way. However, how the Bayesian rule is implemented in a neural network remains under debate. In this work we propose a biologically plausible recurrent network model, which can perform Bayesian multisensory integration after trained by supervised learning. Our model is composed of two modules, each for one modality. We assume that each module is a recurrent network, whose activity represents the posterior distribution of each stimulus. The feedforward input on each module is the likelihood of each modality. Two modules are integrated through cross-links, which are feedforward connections from the other modality, and reciprocal connections, which are recurrent connections between different modules. By stochastic gradient descent, we successfully trained the feedforward and recurrent coupling matrices simultaneously, both of which resembles the Mexican-hat. We also find that there are more than one set of coupling matrices that can approximate the Bayesian theorem well. Specifically, reciprocal connections and cross-links will compensate each other if one of them is removed. Even though trained with two inputs, the network's performance with only one input is in good accordance with what is predicted by the Bayesian theorem.

Rigorous Approach in Investigation of Seismic Structure and Source Characteristicsin Northeast Asia: Hierarchical and Trans-dimensional Bayesian Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mustac, M.; Kim, S.; Tkalcic, H.; Rhie, J.; Chen, Y.; Ford, S. R.; Sebastian, N.

2015-12-01

Conventional approaches to inverse problems suffer from non-linearity and non-uniqueness in estimations of seismic structures and source properties. Estimated results and associated uncertainties are often biased by applied regularizations and additional constraints, which are commonly introduced to solve such problems. Bayesian methods, however, provide statistically meaningful estimations of models and their uncertainties constrained by data information. In addition, hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques are inherently implemented in the Bayesian framework to account for involved error statistics and model parameterizations, and, in turn, allow more rigorous estimations of the same. Here, we apply Bayesian methods throughout the entire inference process to estimate seismic structures and source properties in Northeast Asia including east China, the Korean peninsula, and the Japanese islands. Ambient noise analysis is first performed to obtain a base three-dimensional (3-D) heterogeneity model using continuous broadband waveforms from more than 300 stations. As for the tomography of surface wave group and phase velocities in the 5-70 s band, we adopt a hierarchical and trans-D Bayesian inversion method using Voronoi partition. The 3-D heterogeneity model is further improved by joint inversions of teleseismic receiver functions and dispersion data using a newly developed high-efficiency Bayesian technique. The obtained model is subsequently used to prepare 3-D structural Green's functions for the source characterization. A hierarchical Bayesian method for point source inversion using regional complete waveform data is applied to selected events from the region. The seismic structure and source characteristics with rigorously estimated uncertainties from the novel Bayesian methods provide enhanced monitoring and discrimination of seismic events in northeast Asia.

Emulation of reionization simulations for Bayesian inference of astrophysics parameters using neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmit, C. J.; Pritchard, J. R.

2018-03-01

Next generation radio experiments such as LOFAR, HERA, and SKA are expected to probe the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) and claim a first direct detection of the cosmic 21cm signal within the next decade. Data volumes will be enormous and can thus potentially revolutionize our understanding of the early Universe and galaxy formation. However, numerical modelling of the EoR can be prohibitively expensive for Bayesian parameter inference and how to optimally extract information from incoming data is currently unclear. Emulation techniques for fast model evaluations have recently been proposed as a way to bypass costly simulations. We consider the use of artificial neural networks as a blind emulation technique. We study the impact of training duration and training set size on the quality of the network prediction and the resulting best-fitting values of a parameter search. A direct comparison is drawn between our emulation technique and an equivalent analysis using 21CMMC. We find good predictive capabilities of our network using training sets of as low as 100 model evaluations, which is within the capabilities of fully numerical radiative transfer codes.

Broiler weight estimation based on machine vision and artificial neural network.

PubMed

Amraei, S; Abdanan Mehdizadeh, S; Salari, S

2017-04-01

1. Machine vision and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures were used to estimate live body weight of broiler chickens in 30 1-d-old broiler chickens reared for 42 d. 2. Imaging was performed two times daily. To localise chickens within the pen, an ellipse fitting algorithm was used and the chickens' head and tail removed using the Chan-Vese method. 3. The correlations between the body weight and 6 physical extracted features indicated that there were strong correlations between body weight and the 5 features including area, perimeter, convex area, major and minor axis length. 5. According to statistical analysis there was no significant difference between morning and afternoon data over 42 d. 6. In an attempt to improve the accuracy of live weight approximation different ANN techniques, including Bayesian regulation, Levenberg-Marquardt, Scaled conjugate gradient and gradient descent were used. Bayesian regulation with R 2 value of 0.98 was the best network for prediction of broiler weight. 7. The accuracy of the machine vision technique was examined and most errors were less than 50 g.

Comprehensive review: Computational modelling of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Valton, Vincent; Romaniuk, Liana; Douglas Steele, J; Lawrie, Stephen; Seriès, Peggy

2017-12-01

Computational modelling has been used to address: (1) the variety of symptoms observed in schizophrenia using abstract models of behavior (e.g. Bayesian models - top-down descriptive models of psychopathology); (2) the causes of these symptoms using biologically realistic models involving abnormal neuromodulation and/or receptor imbalance (e.g. connectionist and neural networks - bottom-up realistic models of neural processes). These different levels of analysis have been used to answer different questions (i.e. understanding behavioral vs. neurobiological anomalies) about the nature of the disorder. As such, these computational studies have mostly supported diverging hypotheses of schizophrenia's pathophysiology, resulting in a literature that is not always expanding coherently. Some of these hypotheses are however ripe for revision using novel empirical evidence. Here we present a review that first synthesizes the literature of computational modelling for schizophrenia and psychotic symptoms into categories supporting the dopamine, glutamate, GABA, dysconnection and Bayesian inference hypotheses respectively. Secondly, we compare model predictions against the accumulated empirical evidence and finally we identify specific hypotheses that have been left relatively under-investigated. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Bayesian Learning and the Psychology of Rule Induction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Endress, Ansgar D.

2013-01-01

In recent years, Bayesian learning models have been applied to an increasing variety of domains. While such models have been criticized on theoretical grounds, the underlying assumptions and predictions are rarely made concrete and tested experimentally. Here, I use Frank and Tenenbaum's (2011) Bayesian model of rule-learning as a case study to…

Properties of the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Sande, Brett

2013-01-01

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

Bayesian Item Selection in Constrained Adaptive Testing Using Shadow Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veldkamp, Bernard P.

2010-01-01

Application of Bayesian item selection criteria in computerized adaptive testing might result in improvement of bias and MSE of the ability estimates. The question remains how to apply Bayesian item selection criteria in the context of constrained adaptive testing, where large numbers of specifications have to be taken into account in the item…

Development of uncertainty-based work injury model using Bayesian structural equation modelling.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Snehamoy

2014-01-01

This paper proposed a Bayesian method-based structural equation model (SEM) of miners' work injury for an underground coal mine in India. The environmental and behavioural variables for work injury were identified and causal relationships were developed. For Bayesian modelling, prior distributions of SEM parameters are necessary to develop the model. In this paper, two approaches were adopted to obtain prior distribution for factor loading parameters and structural parameters of SEM. In the first approach, the prior distributions were considered as a fixed distribution function with specific parameter values, whereas, in the second approach, prior distributions of the parameters were generated from experts' opinions. The posterior distributions of these parameters were obtained by applying Bayesian rule. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling in the form Gibbs sampling was applied for sampling from the posterior distribution. The results revealed that all coefficients of structural and measurement model parameters are statistically significant in experts' opinion-based priors, whereas, two coefficients are not statistically significant when fixed prior-based distributions are applied. The error statistics reveals that Bayesian structural model provides reasonably good fit of work injury with high coefficient of determination (0.91) and less mean squared error as compared to traditional SEM.

Multivariate neural biomarkers of emotional states are categorically distinct

PubMed Central

Kragel, Philip A.

2015-01-01

Understanding how emotions are represented neurally is a central aim of affective neuroscience. Despite decades of neuroimaging efforts addressing this question, it remains unclear whether emotions are represented as distinct entities, as predicted by categorical theories, or are constructed from a smaller set of underlying factors, as predicted by dimensional accounts. Here, we capitalize on multivariate statistical approaches and computational modeling to directly evaluate these theoretical perspectives. We elicited discrete emotional states using music and films during functional magnetic resonance imaging scanning. Distinct patterns of neural activation predicted the emotion category of stimuli and tracked subjective experience. Bayesian model comparison revealed that combining dimensional and categorical models of emotion best characterized the information content of activation patterns. Surprisingly, categorical and dimensional aspects of emotion experience captured unique and opposing sources of neural information. These results indicate that diverse emotional states are poorly differentiated by simple models of valence and arousal, and that activity within separable neural systems can be mapped to unique emotion categories. PMID:25813790

The Neural Correlates of Hierarchical Predictions for Perceptual Decisions.

PubMed

Weilnhammer, Veith A; Stuke, Heiner; Sterzer, Philipp; Schmack, Katharina

2018-05-23

Sensory information is inherently noisy, sparse, and ambiguous. In contrast, visual experience is usually clear, detailed, and stable. Bayesian theories of perception resolve this discrepancy by assuming that prior knowledge about the causes underlying sensory stimulation actively shapes perceptual decisions. The CNS is believed to entertain a generative model aligned to dynamic changes in the hierarchical states of our volatile sensory environment. Here, we used model-based fMRI to study the neural correlates of the dynamic updating of hierarchically structured predictions in male and female human observers. We devised a crossmodal associative learning task with covertly interspersed ambiguous trials in which participants engaged in hierarchical learning based on changing contingencies between auditory cues and visual targets. By inverting a Bayesian model of perceptual inference, we estimated individual hierarchical predictions, which significantly biased perceptual decisions under ambiguity. Although "high-level" predictions about the cue-target contingency correlated with activity in supramodal regions such as orbitofrontal cortex and hippocampus, dynamic "low-level" predictions about the conditional target probabilities were associated with activity in retinotopic visual cortex. Our results suggest that our CNS updates distinct representations of hierarchical predictions that continuously affect perceptual decisions in a dynamically changing environment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Bayesian theories posit that our brain entertains a generative model to provide hierarchical predictions regarding the causes of sensory information. Here, we use behavioral modeling and fMRI to study the neural underpinnings of such hierarchical predictions. We show that "high-level" predictions about the strength of dynamic cue-target contingencies during crossmodal associative learning correlate with activity in orbitofrontal cortex and the hippocampus, whereas "low-level" conditional target probabilities were reflected in retinotopic visual cortex. Our findings empirically corroborate theorizations on the role of hierarchical predictions in visual perception and contribute substantially to a longstanding debate on the link between sensory predictions and orbitofrontal or hippocampal activity. Our work fundamentally advances the mechanistic understanding of perceptual inference in the human brain. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/385008-14$15.00/0.

Neural network analysis of Charpy transition temperature of irradiated low-activation martensitic steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cottrell, G. A.; Kemp, R.; Bhadeshia, H. K. D. H.; Odette, G. R.; Yamamoto, T.

2007-08-01

We have constructed a Bayesian neural network model that predicts the change, due to neutron irradiation, of the Charpy ductile-brittle transition temperature (ΔDBTT) of low-activation martensitic steels given a set of multi-dimensional published data with doses <100 displacements per atom (dpa). Results show the high significance of irradiation temperature and (dpa) 1/2 in determining ΔDBTT. Sparse data regions were identified by the size of the modelling uncertainties, indicating areas where further experimental data are needed. The method has promise for selecting and ranking experiments on future irradiation materials test facilities.

Study of Single Top Quark Production Using Bayesian Neural Networks With D0 Detector at the Tevatron

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joshi, Jyoti

2012-01-01

Top quark, the heaviest and most intriguing among the six known quarks, can be created via two independent production mechanisms in {\\pp} collisions. The primary mode, strong {\\ttbar} pair production from amore » $gtt$$ vertex, was used by the {\\d0} and CDF collaborations to establish the existence of the top quark in March 1995. The second mode is the electroweak production of a single top quark or antiquark, which has been observed recently in March 2009. Since single top quarks are produced at hadron colliders through a $$Wtb$ vertex, thereby provide a direct probe of the nature of $Wtb$ coupling and of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element, $$V_{tb}$$. So this mechanism provides a sensitive probe for several, standard model and beyond standard model, parameters such as anomalous $Wtb$ couplings. In this thesis, we measure the cross section of the electroweak produced top quark in three different production modes, $s+t$, $s$ and $t$-channels using a technique based on the Bayesian neural networks. This technique is applied for analysis of the 5.4 $$fb^{-1}$$ of data collected by the {\\d0} detector. From a comparison of the Bayesian neural networks discriminants between data and the signal-background model using Bayesian statistics, the cross sections of the top quark produced through the electroweak mechanism have been measured as: \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tb+X,tqb+X) = 3.11^{+0.77}_{-0.71}\\;\\rm pb\\] \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tb+X) = 0.72^{+0.44}_{-0.43}\\;\\rm pb\\] \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tqb+X) = 2.92^{+0.87}_{-0.73}\\;\\rm pb\\] % The $s+t$-channel has a gaussian significance of $$4.7\\sigma$$, the $s$-channel $$0.9\\sigma$$ and the $t$-channel~$$4.7\\sigma$$. The results are consistent with the standard model predictions within one standard deviation. By combining these results with the results for two other analyses (using different MVA techniques) improved results \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tb+X,tqb+X) = 3.43^{+0.73}_{-0.74}\\;\\rm pb\\] \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tb+X) = 0.68^{+0.38}_{-0.35}\\;\\rm pb\\] \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tqb+X) = 2.86^{+0.69}_{-0.63}\\;\\rm pb\\] % were obtained with a significance of $$5.4\\sigma$$, $$1.8\\sigma$$ and $$5.0\\sigma$$ respectively for $s+t$, $s$ and $t$-channels. Using this measured cross section and constraining $$0 \\leq |V_{tb}|^2 \\leq 1$$, the lower limit has been calculated to be $$|V_{tb}| > 0.79$$ with 95\\% confidence level (C.L.). Another measurement of $tqb$ production cross section is done using the same dataset and discriminant but without any assumption on the $tb$ production rate. From this measurement, we obtain a cross section of $$2.90^{+0.59}_{-0.59}$$~pb for $t$-channel and corresponding significance of $$5.5\\sigma$$. In addition to the above mentioned work, a search is made for the anomalous $Wtb$ couplings in single top quark production. Within the Standard Model, the $Wtb$ vertex is purely left-handed, and its amplitude is given by the $$V_{tb}$$, related to weak interaction between a top and a $b$$-quark. In a more general way, additional anomalous couplings such as right-handed vectorial couplings and left and right-handed tensorial couplings can also be considered. An analysis based on the Bayesian neural networks method is used to separate the signal from expected backgrounds. We find no evidence for anomalous couplings and set 95\\% C.L. limits on these couplings as $$|V_{tb} \\cdot f_{L_T}|^2<0.06$, $$|V_{tb} \\cdot f_{R_V}|^2<0.93$$ and $$|V_{tb} \\cdot f_{R_T}|^2<0.13$$. This result represents the most stringent direct constraints on anomalous $Wtb$ interactions. This work has been done in collaboration with \\d0 experiment but the analyses and results presented in this thesis are my contribution.« less

Empirical study on neural network based predictive techniques for automatic number plate recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shashidhara, M. S.; Indrakumar, S. S.

2011-10-01

The objective of this study is to provide an easy, accurate and effective technology for the Bangalore city traffic control. This is based on the techniques of image processing and laser beam technology. The core concept chosen here is an image processing technology by the method of automatic number plate recognition system. First number plate is recognized if any vehicle breaks the traffic rules in the signals. The number is fetched from the database of the RTO office by the process of automatic database fetching. Next this sends the notice and penalty related information to the vehicle owner email-id and an SMS sent to vehicle owner. In this paper, we use of cameras with zooming options & laser beams to get accurate pictures further applied image processing techniques such as Edge detection to understand the vehicle, Identifying the location of the number plate, Identifying the number plate for further use, Plain plate number, Number plate with additional information, Number plates in the different fonts. Accessing the database of the vehicle registration office to identify the name and address and other information of the vehicle number. The updates to be made to the database for the recording of the violation and penalty issues. A feed forward artificial neural network is used for OCR. This procedure is particularly important for glyphs that are visually similar such as '8' and '9' and results in training sets of between 25,000 and 40,000 training samples. Over training of the neural network is prevented by Bayesian regularization. The neural network output value is set to 0.05 when the input is not desired glyph, and 0.95 for correct input.

Estimating the functional dimensionality of neural representations.

PubMed

Ahlheim, Christiane; Love, Bradley C

2018-06-07

Recent advances in multivariate fMRI analysis stress the importance of information inherent to voxel patterns. Key to interpreting these patterns is estimating the underlying dimensionality of neural representations. Dimensions may correspond to psychological dimensions, such as length and orientation, or involve other coding schemes. Unfortunately, the noise structure of fMRI data inflates dimensionality estimates and thus makes it difficult to assess the true underlying dimensionality of a pattern. To address this challenge, we developed a novel approach to identify brain regions that carry reliable task-modulated signal and to derive an estimate of the signal's functional dimensionality. We combined singular value decomposition with cross-validation to find the best low-dimensional projection of a pattern of voxel-responses at a single-subject level. Goodness of the low-dimensional reconstruction is measured as Pearson correlation with a test set, which allows to test for significance of the low-dimensional reconstruction across participants. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling, we derive the best estimate and associated uncertainty of underlying dimensionality across participants. We validated our method on simulated data of varying underlying dimensionality, showing that recovered dimensionalities match closely true dimensionalities. We then applied our method to three published fMRI data sets all involving processing of visual stimuli. The results highlight three possible applications of estimating the functional dimensionality of neural data. Firstly, it can aid evaluation of model-based analyses by revealing which areas express reliable, task-modulated signal that could be missed by specific models. Secondly, it can reveal functional differences across brain regions. Thirdly, knowing the functional dimensionality allows assessing task-related differences in the complexity of neural patterns. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Community Detection in the Space of Group-Level Functional Differences

PubMed Central

Venkataraman, Archana; Yang, Daniel Y.-J.; Pelphrey, Kevin A.; Duncan, James S.

2017-01-01

We propose a unified Bayesian framework to detect both hyper- and hypo-active communities within whole-brain fMRI data. Specifically, our model identifies dense subgraphs that exhibit population-level differences in functional synchrony between a control and clinical group. We derive a variational EM algorithm to solve for the latent posterior distributions and parameter estimates, which subsequently inform us about the afflicted network topology. We demonstrate that our method provides valuable insights into the neural mechanisms underlying social dysfunction in autism, as verified by the Neurosynth meta-analytic database. In contrast, both univariate testing and community detection via recursive edge elimination fail to identify stable functional communities associated with the disorder. PMID:26955022

Bayesian Community Detection in the Space of Group-Level Functional Differences.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Archana; Yang, Daniel Y-J; Pelphrey, Kevin A; Duncan, James S

2016-08-01

We propose a unified Bayesian framework to detect both hyper- and hypo-active communities within whole-brain fMRI data. Specifically, our model identifies dense subgraphs that exhibit population-level differences in functional synchrony between a control and clinical group. We derive a variational EM algorithm to solve for the latent posterior distributions and parameter estimates, which subsequently inform us about the afflicted network topology. We demonstrate that our method provides valuable insights into the neural mechanisms underlying social dysfunction in autism, as verified by the Neurosynth meta-analytic database. In contrast, both univariate testing and community detection via recursive edge elimination fail to identify stable functional communities associated with the disorder.

A Bayesian approach to landscape ecological risk assessment applied to the upper Grande Ronde watershed, Oregon

Treesearch

Kimberley K. Ayre; Wayne G. Landis

2012-01-01

We present a Bayesian network model based on the ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate potential impacts to habitats and resources resulting from wildfire, grazing, forest management activities, and insect outbreaks in a forested landscape in northeastern Oregon. The Bayesian network structure consisted of three tiers of nodes: landscape disturbances,...

Relative performance of selected detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranney, Kenneth I.; Khatri, Hiralal; Nguyen, Lam H.; Sichina, Jeffrey

2000-08-01

The quadratic polynomial detector (QPD) and the radial basis function (RBF) family of detectors -- including the Bayesian neural network (BNN) -- might well be considered workhorses within the field of automatic target detection (ATD). The QPD works reasonably well when the data is unimodal, and it also achieves the best possible performance if the underlying data follow a Gaussian distribution. The BNN, on the other hand, has been applied successfully in cases where the underlying data are assumed to follow a multimodal distribution. We compare the performance of a BNN detector and a QPD for various scenarios synthesized from a set of Gaussian probability density functions (pdfs). This data synthesis allows us to control parameters such as modality and correlation, which, in turn, enables us to create data sets that can probe the weaknesses of the detectors. We present results for different data scenarios and different detector architectures.

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aires, F.; Prigent, C.; Rossow, W. B.

2004-01-01

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

IMNN: Information Maximizing Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charnock, Tom; Lavaux, Guilhem; Wandelt, Benjamin D.

2018-04-01

This software trains artificial neural networks to find non-linear functionals of data that maximize Fisher information: information maximizing neural networks (IMNNs). As compressing large data sets vastly simplifies both frequentist and Bayesian inference, important information may be inadvertently missed. Likelihood-free inference based on automatically derived IMNN summaries produces summaries that are good approximations to sufficient statistics. IMNNs are robustly capable of automatically finding optimal, non-linear summaries of the data even in cases where linear compression fails: inferring the variance of Gaussian signal in the presence of noise, inferring cosmological parameters from mock simulations of the Lyman-α forest in quasar spectra, and inferring frequency-domain parameters from LISA-like detections of gravitational waveforms. In this final case, the IMNN summary outperforms linear data compression by avoiding the introduction of spurious likelihood maxima.

Spontaneous cortical activity reveals hallmarks of an optimal internal model of the environment.

PubMed

Berkes, Pietro; Orbán, Gergo; Lengyel, Máté; Fiser, József

2011-01-07

The brain maintains internal models of its environment to interpret sensory inputs and to prepare actions. Although behavioral studies have demonstrated that these internal models are optimally adapted to the statistics of the environment, the neural underpinning of this adaptation is unknown. Using a Bayesian model of sensory cortical processing, we related stimulus-evoked and spontaneous neural activities to inferences and prior expectations in an internal model and predicted that they should match if the model is statistically optimal. To test this prediction, we analyzed visual cortical activity of awake ferrets during development. Similarity between spontaneous and evoked activities increased with age and was specific to responses evoked by natural scenes. This demonstrates the progressive adaptation of internal models to the statistics of natural stimuli at the neural level.

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been developed and widely applied, but there is still room for improvements. Future research in the context of Bayesian flood forecasting should be on assimilation of various sources of newly available information and improvement of predictive performance assessment methods.

Source Reconstruction of Brain Potentials Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Analyze Face Intra-Domain vs. Face-Occupation Cross-Domain Processing.

PubMed

Olivares, Ela I; Lage-Castellanos, Agustín; Bobes, María A; Iglesias, Jaime

2018-01-01

We investigated the neural correlates of the access to and retrieval of face structure information in contrast to those concerning the access to and retrieval of person-related verbal information, triggered by faces. We experimentally induced stimulus familiarity via a systematic learning procedure including faces with and without associated verbal information. Then, we recorded event-related potentials (ERPs) in both intra-domain (face-feature) and cross-domain (face-occupation) matching tasks while N400-like responses were elicited by incorrect eyes-eyebrows completions and occupations, respectively. A novel Bayesian source reconstruction approach plus conjunction analysis of group effects revealed that in both cases the generated N170s were of similar amplitude but had different neural origin. Thus, whereas the N170 of faces was associated predominantly to right fusiform and occipital regions (the so-called "Fusiform Face Area", "FFA" and "Occipital Face Area", "OFA", respectively), the N170 of occupations was associated to a bilateral very posterior activity, suggestive of basic perceptual processes. Importantly, the right-sided perceptual P200 and the face-related N250 were evoked exclusively in the intra-domain task, with sources in OFA and extensively in the fusiform region, respectively. Regarding later latencies, the intra-domain N400 seemed to be generated in right posterior brain regions encompassing mainly OFA and, to some extent, the FFA, likely reflecting neural operations triggered by structural incongruities. In turn, the cross-domain N400 was related to more anterior left-sided fusiform and temporal inferior sources, paralleling those described previously for the classic verbal N400. These results support the existence of differentiated neural streams for face structure and person-related verbal processing triggered by faces, which can be activated differentially according to specific task demands.

Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

PubMed

Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

2015-08-01

Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

Bayesian Computation Emerges in Generic Cortical Microcircuits through Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity

PubMed Central

Nessler, Bernhard; Pfeiffer, Michael; Buesing, Lars; Maass, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

The principles by which networks of neurons compute, and how spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) of synaptic weights generates and maintains their computational function, are unknown. Preceding work has shown that soft winner-take-all (WTA) circuits, where pyramidal neurons inhibit each other via interneurons, are a common motif of cortical microcircuits. We show through theoretical analysis and computer simulations that Bayesian computation is induced in these network motifs through STDP in combination with activity-dependent changes in the excitability of neurons. The fundamental components of this emergent Bayesian computation are priors that result from adaptation of neuronal excitability and implicit generative models for hidden causes that are created in the synaptic weights through STDP. In fact, a surprising result is that STDP is able to approximate a powerful principle for fitting such implicit generative models to high-dimensional spike inputs: Expectation Maximization. Our results suggest that the experimentally observed spontaneous activity and trial-to-trial variability of cortical neurons are essential features of their information processing capability, since their functional role is to represent probability distributions rather than static neural codes. Furthermore it suggests networks of Bayesian computation modules as a new model for distributed information processing in the cortex. PMID:23633941

Predictability of depression severity based on posterior alpha oscillations.

PubMed

Jiang, H; Popov, T; Jylänki, P; Bi, K; Yao, Z; Lu, Q; Jensen, O; van Gerven, M A J

2016-04-01

We aimed to integrate neural data and an advanced machine learning technique to predict individual major depressive disorder (MDD) patient severity. MEG data was acquired from 22 MDD patients and 22 healthy controls (HC) resting awake with eyes closed. Individual power spectra were calculated by a Fourier transform. Sources were reconstructed via beamforming technique. Bayesian linear regression was applied to predict depression severity based on the spatial distribution of oscillatory power. In MDD patients, decreased theta (4-8 Hz) and alpha (8-14 Hz) power was observed in fronto-central and posterior areas respectively, whereas increased beta (14-30 Hz) power was observed in fronto-central regions. In particular, posterior alpha power was negatively related to depression severity. The Bayesian linear regression model showed significant depression severity prediction performance based on the spatial distribution of both alpha (r=0.68, p=0.0005) and beta power (r=0.56, p=0.007) respectively. Our findings point to a specific alteration of oscillatory brain activity in MDD patients during rest as characterized from MEG data in terms of spectral and spatial distribution. The proposed model yielded a quantitative and objective estimation for the depression severity, which in turn has a potential for diagnosis and monitoring of the recovery process. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian approach for counting experiment statistics applied to a neutrino point source analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, D.; Brayeur, L.; Casier, M.; de Vries, K. D.; Golup, G.; van Eijndhoven, N.

2013-12-01

In this paper we present a model independent analysis method following Bayesian statistics to analyse data from a generic counting experiment and apply it to the search for neutrinos from point sources. We discuss a test statistic defined following a Bayesian framework that will be used in the search for a signal. In case no signal is found, we derive an upper limit without the introduction of approximations. The Bayesian approach allows us to obtain the full probability density function for both the background and the signal rate. As such, we have direct access to any signal upper limit. The upper limit derivation directly compares with a frequentist approach and is robust in the case of low-counting observations. Furthermore, it allows also to account for previous upper limits obtained by other analyses via the concept of prior information without the need of the ad hoc application of trial factors. To investigate the validity of the presented Bayesian approach, we have applied this method to the public IceCube 40-string configuration data for 10 nearby blazars and we have obtained a flux upper limit, which is in agreement with the upper limits determined via a frequentist approach. Furthermore, the upper limit obtained compares well with the previously published result of IceCube, using the same data set.

Using multi-level Bayesian lesion-symptom mapping to probe the body-part-specificity of gesture imitation skills.

PubMed

Achilles, Elisabeth I S; Weiss, Peter H; Fink, Gereon R; Binder, Ellen; Price, Cathy J; Hope, Thomas M H

2017-11-01

Past attempts to identify the neural substrates of hand and finger imitation skills in the left hemisphere of the brain have yielded inconsistent results. Here, we analyse those associations in a large sample of 257 left hemisphere stroke patients. By introducing novel Bayesian methods, we characterise lesion symptom associations at three levels: the voxel-level, the single-region level (using anatomically defined regions), and the region-pair level. The results are inconsistent across those three levels and we argue that each level of analysis makes assumptions which constrain the results it can produce. Regardless of the inconsistencies across levels, and contrary to past studies which implicated differential neural substrates for hand and finger imitation, we find no consistent voxels or regions, where damage affects one imitation skill and not the other, at any of the three analysis levels. Our novel Bayesian approach indicates that any apparent differences appear to be driven by an increased sensitivity of hand imitation skills to lesions that also impair finger imitation. In our analyses, the results of the highest level of analysis (region-pairs) emphasise a role of the primary somatosensory and motor cortices, and the occipital lobe in imitation. We argue that this emphasis supports an account of both imitation tasks based on direct sensor-motor connections, which throws doubt on past accounts which imply the need for an intermediate (e.g. body-part-coding) system of representation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Informative Bayesian Type A uncertainty evaluation, especially applicable to a small number of observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, M.; Shirono, K.

2017-10-01

A criticism levelled at the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) is that it is based on a mixture of frequentist and Bayesian thinking. In particular, the GUM’s Type A (statistical) uncertainty evaluations are frequentist, whereas the Type B evaluations, using state-of-knowledge distributions, are Bayesian. In contrast, making the GUM fully Bayesian implies, among other things, that a conventional objective Bayesian approach to Type A uncertainty evaluation for a number n of observations leads to the impractical consequence that n must be at least equal to 4, thus presenting a difficulty for many metrologists. This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of Type A uncertainty evaluation that applies for all n ≥slant 2 , as in the frequentist analysis in the current GUM. The analysis is based on assuming that the observations are drawn from a normal distribution (as in the conventional objective Bayesian analysis), but uses an informative prior based on lower and upper bounds for the standard deviation of the sampling distribution for the quantity under consideration. The main outcome of the analysis is a closed-form mathematical expression for the factor by which the standard deviation of the mean observation should be multiplied to calculate the required standard uncertainty. Metrological examples are used to illustrate the approach, which is straightforward to apply using a formula or look-up table.

Bayesian Nonlinear Assimilation of Eulerian and Lagrangian Coastal Flow Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Lagrangian Coastal Flow Data Dr. Pierre F.J. Lermusiaux Department of Mechanical Engineering Center for Ocean Science and Engineering Massachusetts...Develop and apply theory, schemes and computational systems for rigorous Bayesian nonlinear assimilation of Eulerian and Lagrangian coastal flow data...coastal ocean fields, both in Eulerian and Lagrangian forms. - Further develop and implement our GMM-DO schemes for robust Bayesian nonlinear estimation

The Role of Frontal Cortical and Medial-Temporal Lobe Brain Areas in Learning a Bayesian Prior Belief on Reversals

PubMed Central

Jang, Anthony I.; Costa, Vincent D.; Rudebeck, Peter H.; Chudasama, Yogita; Murray, Elisabeth A.

2015-01-01

Reversal learning has been extensively studied across species as a task that indexes the ability to flexibly make and reverse deterministic stimulus–reward associations. Although various brain lesions have been found to affect performance on this task, the behavioral processes affected by these lesions have not yet been determined. This task includes at least two kinds of learning. First, subjects have to learn and reverse stimulus–reward associations in each block of trials. Second, subjects become more proficient at reversing choice preferences as they experience more reversals. We have developed a Bayesian approach to separately characterize these two learning processes. Reversal of choice behavior within each block is driven by a combination of evidence that a reversal has occurred, and a prior belief in reversals that evolves with experience across blocks. We applied the approach to behavior obtained from 89 macaques, comprising 12 lesion groups and a control group. We found that animals from all of the groups reversed more quickly as they experienced more reversals, and correspondingly they updated their prior beliefs about reversals at the same rate. However, the initial values of the priors that the various groups of animals brought to the task differed significantly, and it was these initial priors that led to the differences in behavior. Thus, by taking a Bayesian approach we find that variability in reversal-learning performance attributable to different neural systems is primarily driven by different prior beliefs about reversals that each group brings to the task. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The ability to use prior knowledge to adapt choice behavior is critical for flexible decision making. Reversal learning is often studied as a form of flexible decision making. However, prior studies have not identified which brain regions are important for the formation and use of prior beliefs to guide choice behavior. Here we develop a Bayesian approach that formally characterizes learning set as a concept, and we show that, in macaque monkeys, the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex have a role in establishing an initial belief about the stability of the reward environment. PMID:26290251

Non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy symptoms detection and classification using neural network.

PubMed

Al-Jarrah, Mohammad A; Shatnawi, Hadeel

2017-08-01

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) causes blindness in the working age for people with diabetes in most countries. The increasing number of people with diabetes worldwide suggests that DR will continue to be major contributors to vision loss. Early detection of retinopathy progress in individuals with diabetes is critical for preventing visual loss. Non-proliferative DR (NPDR) is an early stage of DR. Moreover, NPDR can be classified into mild, moderate and severe. This paper proposes a novel morphology-based algorithm for detecting retinal lesions and classifying each case. First, the proposed algorithm detects the three DR lesions, namely haemorrhages, microaneurysms and exudates. Second, we defined and extracted a set of features from detected lesions. The set of selected feature emulates what physicians looked for in classifying NPDR case. Finally, we designed an artificial neural network (ANN) classifier with three layers to classify NPDR to normal, mild, moderate and severe. Bayesian regularisation and resilient backpropagation algorithms are used to train ANN. The accuracy for the proposed classifiers based on Bayesian regularisation and resilient backpropagation algorithms are 96.6 and 89.9, respectively. The obtained results are compared with results of the recent published classifier. Our proposed classifier outperforms the best in terms of sensitivity and specificity.

Bayesian Ising approximation for learning dictionaries of multispike timing patterns in premotor neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez Lahme, Damian; Sober, Samuel; Nemenman, Ilya

Important questions in computational neuroscience are whether, how much, and how information is encoded in the precise timing of neural action potentials. We recently demonstrated that, in the premotor cortex during vocal control in songbirds, spike timing is far more informative about upcoming behavior than is spike rate (Tang et al, 2014). However, identification of complete dictionaries that relate spike timing patterns with the controled behavior remains an elusive problem. Here we present a computational approach to deciphering such codes for individual neurons in the songbird premotor area RA, an analog of mammalian primary motor cortex. Specifically, we analyze which multispike patterns of neural activity predict features of the upcoming vocalization, and hence are important codewords. We use a recently introduced Bayesian Ising Approximation, which properly accounts for the fact that many codewords overlap and hence are not independent. Our results show which complex, temporally precise multispike combinations are used by individual neurons to control acoustic features of the produced song, and that these code words are different across individual neurons and across different acoustic features. This work was supported, in part, by JSMF Grant 220020321, NSF Grant 1208126, NIH Grant NS084844 and NIH Grant 1 R01 EB022872.

A Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition of performance in Approach–Avoidance Tasks

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Beckers, Tom; Kindt, Merel; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-01-01

Common methods for analysing response time (RT) tasks, frequently used across different disciplines of psychology, suffer from a number of limitations such as the failure to directly measure the underlying latent processes of interest and the inability to take into account the uncertainty associated with each individual's point estimate of performance. Here, we discuss a Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model and apply it to RT data. This model allows researchers to decompose performance into meaningful psychological processes and to account optimally for individual differences and commonalities, even with relatively sparse data. We highlight the advantages of the Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition by applying it to performance on Approach–Avoidance Tasks, widely used in the emotion and psychopathology literature. Model fits for two experimental data-sets demonstrate that the model performs well. The Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model overcomes important limitations of current analysis procedures and provides deeper insight in latent psychological processes of interest. PMID:25491372

Bayesian least squares deconvolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asensio Ramos, A.; Petit, P.

2015-11-01

Aims: We develop a fully Bayesian least squares deconvolution (LSD) that can be applied to the reliable detection of magnetic signals in noise-limited stellar spectropolarimetric observations using multiline techniques. Methods: We consider LSD under the Bayesian framework and we introduce a flexible Gaussian process (GP) prior for the LSD profile. This prior allows the result to automatically adapt to the presence of signal. We exploit several linear algebra identities to accelerate the calculations. The final algorithm can deal with thousands of spectral lines in a few seconds. Results: We demonstrate the reliability of the method with synthetic experiments and we apply it to real spectropolarimetric observations of magnetic stars. We are able to recover the magnetic signals using a small number of spectral lines, together with the uncertainty at each velocity bin. This allows the user to consider if the detected signal is reliable. The code to compute the Bayesian LSD profile is freely available.

Automated radial basis function neural network based image classification system for diabetic retinopathy detection in retinal images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anitha, J.; Vijila, C. Kezi Selva; Hemanth, D. Jude

2010-02-01

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a chronic eye disease for which early detection is highly essential to avoid any fatal results. Image processing of retinal images emerge as a feasible tool for this early diagnosis. Digital image processing techniques involve image classification which is a significant technique to detect the abnormality in the eye. Various automated classification systems have been developed in the recent years but most of them lack high classification accuracy. Artificial neural networks are the widely preferred artificial intelligence technique since it yields superior results in terms of classification accuracy. In this work, Radial Basis function (RBF) neural network based bi-level classification system is proposed to differentiate abnormal DR Images and normal retinal images. The results are analyzed in terms of classification accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. A comparative analysis is performed with the results of the probabilistic classifier namely Bayesian classifier to show the superior nature of neural classifier. Experimental results show promising results for the neural classifier in terms of the performance measures.

Multivariate neural biomarkers of emotional states are categorically distinct.

PubMed

Kragel, Philip A; LaBar, Kevin S

2015-11-01

Understanding how emotions are represented neurally is a central aim of affective neuroscience. Despite decades of neuroimaging efforts addressing this question, it remains unclear whether emotions are represented as distinct entities, as predicted by categorical theories, or are constructed from a smaller set of underlying factors, as predicted by dimensional accounts. Here, we capitalize on multivariate statistical approaches and computational modeling to directly evaluate these theoretical perspectives. We elicited discrete emotional states using music and films during functional magnetic resonance imaging scanning. Distinct patterns of neural activation predicted the emotion category of stimuli and tracked subjective experience. Bayesian model comparison revealed that combining dimensional and categorical models of emotion best characterized the information content of activation patterns. Surprisingly, categorical and dimensional aspects of emotion experience captured unique and opposing sources of neural information. These results indicate that diverse emotional states are poorly differentiated by simple models of valence and arousal, and that activity within separable neural systems can be mapped to unique emotion categories. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

UniEnt: uniform entropy model for the dynamics of a neuronal population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez Lahme, Damian; Nemenman, Ilya

Sensory information and motor responses are encoded in the brain in a collective spiking activity of a large number of neurons. Understanding the neural code requires inferring statistical properties of such collective dynamics from multicellular neurophysiological recordings. Questions of whether synchronous activity or silence of multiple neurons carries information about the stimuli or the motor responses are especially interesting. Unfortunately, detection of such high order statistical interactions from data is especially challenging due to the exponentially large dimensionality of the state space of neural collectives. Here we present UniEnt, a method for the inference of strengths of multivariate neural interaction patterns. The method is based on the Bayesian prior that makes no assumptions (uniform a priori expectations) about the value of the entropy of the observed multivariate neural activity, in contrast to popular approaches that maximize this entropy. We then study previously published multi-electrode recordings data from salamander retina, exposing the relevance of higher order neural interaction patterns for information encoding in this system. This work was supported in part by Grants JSMF/220020321 and NSF/IOS/1208126.

Neuro-genetic multioptimization of the determination of polychlorinated biphenyl congeners in human milk by headspace solid phase microextraction coupled to gas chromatography with electron capture detection.

PubMed

Kowalski, Cláudia Hoffmann; da Silva, Gilmare Antônia; Poppi, Ronei Jesus; Godoy, Helena Teixeira; Augusto, Fabio

2007-02-28

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) can eventually contaminate breast milk, which is a serious issue to the newborn due to their high vulnerability. Solid phase microextraction (SPME) can be a very convenient technique for their isolation and pre-concentration prior chromatographic analysis. Here, a simultaneous multioptimization strategy based on a neuro-genetic approach was applied to a headspace SPME method for determination of 12 PCB in human milk. Gas chromatography with electron capture detection (ECD) was adopted for the separation and detection of the analytes. Experiments according to a Doehlert design were carried out with varied extraction time and temperature, media ionic strength and concentration of the methanol (co-solvent). To find the best model that simultaneously correlate all PCB peak areas and SPME extraction conditions, a multivariate calibration method based on a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) was applied. The net output from the neural network was used as input in a genetic algorithm (GA) optimization operation (neuro-genetic approach). The GA pointed out that the best values of the overall SPME operational conditions were the saturation of the media with NaCl, extraction temperature of 95 degrees C, extraction time of 60 min and addition of 5% (v/v) methanol to the media. These optimized parameters resulted in the decrease of the detection limits and increase on the sensitivity for all tested analytes, showing that the use of neuro-genetic approach can be a promising way for optimization of SPME methods.

Predicting the survival of diabetes using neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamuda, Mamman; Sathasivam, Saratha

2017-08-01

Data mining techniques at the present time are used in predicting diseases of health care industries. Neural Network is one among the prevailing method in data mining techniques of an intelligent field for predicting diseases in health care industries. This paper presents a study on the prediction of the survival of diabetes diseases using different learning algorithms from the supervised learning algorithms of neural network. Three learning algorithms are considered in this study: (i) The levenberg-marquardt learning algorithm (ii) The Bayesian regulation learning algorithm and (iii) The scaled conjugate gradient learning algorithm. The network is trained using the Pima Indian Diabetes Dataset with the help of MATLAB R2014(a) software. The performance of each algorithm is further discussed through regression analysis. The prediction accuracy of the best algorithm is further computed to validate the accurate prediction

Bayesian statistics in medicine: a 25 year review.

PubMed

Ashby, Deborah

2006-11-15

This review examines the state of Bayesian thinking as Statistics in Medicine was launched in 1982, reflecting particularly on its applicability and uses in medical research. It then looks at each subsequent five-year epoch, with a focus on papers appearing in Statistics in Medicine, putting these in the context of major developments in Bayesian thinking and computation with reference to important books, landmark meetings and seminal papers. It charts the growth of Bayesian statistics as it is applied to medicine and makes predictions for the future. From sparse beginnings, where Bayesian statistics was barely mentioned, Bayesian statistics has now permeated all the major areas of medical statistics, including clinical trials, epidemiology, meta-analyses and evidence synthesis, spatial modelling, longitudinal modelling, survival modelling, molecular genetics and decision-making in respect of new technologies.

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

A regularization approach to continuous learning with an application to financial derivatives pricing.

PubMed

Ormoneit, D

1999-12-01

We consider the training of neural networks in cases where the nonlinear relationship of interest gradually changes over time. One possibility to deal with this problem is by regularization where a variation penalty is added to the usual mean squared error criterion. To learn the regularized network weights we suggest the Iterative Extended Kalman Filter (IEKF) as a learning rule, which may be derived from a Bayesian perspective on the regularization problem. A primary application of our algorithm is in financial derivatives pricing, where neural networks may be used to model the dependency of the derivatives' price on one or several underlying assets. After giving a brief introduction to the problem of derivatives pricing we present experiments with German stock index options data showing that a regularized neural network trained with the IEKF outperforms several benchmark models and alternative learning procedures. In particular, the performance may be greatly improved using a newly designed neural network architecture that accounts for no-arbitrage pricing restrictions.

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

PubMed

Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

2016-01-01

This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Moving beyond qualitative evaluations of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Hemmer, Pernille; Tauber, Sean; Steyvers, Mark

2015-06-01

Bayesian models of cognition provide a powerful way to understand the behavior and goals of individuals from a computational point of view. Much of the focus in the Bayesian cognitive modeling approach has been on qualitative model evaluations, where predictions from the models are compared to data that is often averaged over individuals. In many cognitive tasks, however, there are pervasive individual differences. We introduce an approach to directly infer individual differences related to subjective mental representations within the framework of Bayesian models of cognition. In this approach, Bayesian data analysis methods are used to estimate cognitive parameters and motivate the inference process within a Bayesian cognitive model. We illustrate this integrative Bayesian approach on a model of memory. We apply the model to behavioral data from a memory experiment involving the recall of heights of people. A cross-validation analysis shows that the Bayesian memory model with inferred subjective priors predicts withheld data better than a Bayesian model where the priors are based on environmental statistics. In addition, the model with inferred priors at the individual subject level led to the best overall generalization performance, suggesting that individual differences are important to consider in Bayesian models of cognition.

Tmax Determined Using a Bayesian Estimation Deconvolution Algorithm Applied to Bolus Tracking Perfusion Imaging: A Digital Phantom Validation Study.

PubMed

Uwano, Ikuko; Sasaki, Makoto; Kudo, Kohsuke; Boutelier, Timothé; Kameda, Hiroyuki; Mori, Futoshi; Yamashita, Fumio

2017-01-10

The Bayesian estimation algorithm improves the precision of bolus tracking perfusion imaging. However, this algorithm cannot directly calculate Tmax, the time scale widely used to identify ischemic penumbra, because Tmax is a non-physiological, artificial index that reflects the tracer arrival delay (TD) and other parameters. We calculated Tmax from the TD and mean transit time (MTT) obtained by the Bayesian algorithm and determined its accuracy in comparison with Tmax obtained by singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithms. The TD and MTT maps were generated by the Bayesian algorithm applied to digital phantoms with time-concentration curves that reflected a range of values for various perfusion metrics using a global arterial input function. Tmax was calculated from the TD and MTT using constants obtained by a linear least-squares fit to Tmax obtained from the two SVD algorithms that showed the best benchmarks in a previous study. Correlations between the Tmax values obtained by the Bayesian and SVD methods were examined. The Bayesian algorithm yielded accurate TD and MTT values relative to the true values of the digital phantom. Tmax calculated from the TD and MTT values with the least-squares fit constants showed excellent correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.99) and agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.99) with Tmax obtained from SVD algorithms. Quantitative analyses of Tmax values calculated from Bayesian-estimation algorithm-derived TD and MTT from a digital phantom correlated and agreed well with Tmax values determined using SVD algorithms.

[Bayesian statistics in medicine -- part II: main applications and inference].

PubMed

Montomoli, C; Nichelatti, M

2008-01-01

Bayesian statistics is not only used when one is dealing with 2-way tables, but it can be used for inferential purposes. Using the basic concepts presented in the first part, this paper aims to give a simple overview of Bayesian methods by introducing its foundation (Bayes' theorem) and then applying this rule to a very simple practical example; whenever possible, the elementary processes at the basis of analysis are compared to those of frequentist (classical) statistical analysis. The Bayesian reasoning is naturally connected to medical activity, since it appears to be quite similar to a diagnostic process.

The Bayesian approach to reporting GSR analysis results: some first-hand experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charles, Sebastien; Nys, Bart

2010-06-01

The use of Bayesian principles in the reporting of forensic findings has been a matter of interest for some years. Recently, also the GSR community is gradually exploring the advantages of this method, or rather approach, for writing reports. Since last year, our GSR group is adapting reporting procedures to the use of Bayesian principles. The police and magistrates find the reports more directly accessible and useful in their part of the criminal investigation. In the lab we find that, through applying the Bayesian principles, unnecessary analyses can be eliminated and thus time can be freed on the instruments.

F-MAP: A Bayesian approach to infer the gene regulatory network using external hints

PubMed Central

Shahdoust, Maryam; Mahjub, Hossein; Sadeghi, Mehdi

2017-01-01

The Common topological features of related species gene regulatory networks suggest reconstruction of the network of one species by using the further information from gene expressions profile of related species. We present an algorithm to reconstruct the gene regulatory network named; F-MAP, which applies the knowledge about gene interactions from related species. Our algorithm sets a Bayesian framework to estimate the precision matrix of one species microarray gene expressions dataset to infer the Gaussian Graphical model of the network. The conjugate Wishart prior is used and the information from related species is applied to estimate the hyperparameters of the prior distribution by using the factor analysis. Applying the proposed algorithm on six related species of drosophila shows that the precision of reconstructed networks is improved considerably compared to the precision of networks constructed by other Bayesian approaches. PMID:28938012

A Guide to the Literature on Learning Graphical Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray L.; Friedland, Peter (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

This literature review discusses different methods under the general rubric of learning Bayesian networks from data, and more generally, learning probabilistic graphical models. Because many problems in artificial intelligence, statistics and neural networks can be represented as a probabilistic graphical model, this area provides a unifying perspective on learning. This paper organizes the research in this area along methodological lines of increasing complexity.

Joint Data Management for MOVINT Data-to-Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-01

flux tensor , aligned motion history images, and related approaches have been shown to be versatile approaches [12, 16, 17, 18]. Scaling these...methods include voting , neural networks, fuzzy logic, neuro-dynamic programming, support vector machines, Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer methods. One way...Information Fusion, 2010. [16] F. Bunyak, K. Palaniappan, S. K. Nath, G. Seetharaman, “Flux tensor constrained geodesic active contours with sensor fusion

Cortical Coupling Reflects Bayesian Belief Updating in the Deployment of Spatial Attention.

PubMed

Vossel, Simone; Mathys, Christoph; Stephan, Klaas E; Friston, Karl J

2015-08-19

The deployment of visuospatial attention and the programming of saccades are governed by the inferred likelihood of events. In the present study, we combined computational modeling of psychophysical data with fMRI to characterize the computational and neural mechanisms underlying this flexible attentional control. Sixteen healthy human subjects performed a modified version of Posner's location-cueing paradigm in which the percentage of cue validity varied in time and the targets required saccadic responses. Trialwise estimates of the certainty (precision) of the prediction that the target would appear at the cued location were derived from a hierarchical Bayesian model fitted to individual trialwise saccadic response speeds. Trial-specific model parameters then entered analyses of fMRI data as parametric regressors. Moreover, dynamic causal modeling (DCM) was performed to identify the most likely functional architecture of the attentional reorienting network and its modulation by (Bayes-optimal) precision-dependent attention. While the frontal eye fields (FEFs), intraparietal sulcus, and temporoparietal junction (TPJ) of both hemispheres showed higher activity on invalid relative to valid trials, reorienting responses in right FEF, TPJ, and the putamen were significantly modulated by precision-dependent attention. Our DCM results suggested that the precision of predictability underlies the attentional modulation of the coupling of TPJ with FEF and the putamen. Our results shed new light on the computational architecture and neuronal network dynamics underlying the context-sensitive deployment of visuospatial attention. Spatial attention and its neural correlates in the human brain have been studied extensively with the help of fMRI and cueing paradigms in which the location of targets is pre-cued on a trial-by-trial basis. One aspect that has so far been neglected concerns the question of how the brain forms attentional expectancies when no a priori probability information is available but needs to be inferred from observations. This study elucidates the computational and neural mechanisms under which probabilistic inference governs attentional deployment. Our results show that Bayesian belief updating explains changes in cortical connectivity; in that directional influences from the temporoparietal junction on the frontal eye fields and the putamen were modulated by (Bayes-optimal) updates. Copyright © 2015 Vossel et al.

New Approaches For Asteroid Spin State and Shape Modeling From Delay-Doppler Radar Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raissi, Chedy; Lamee, Mehdi; Mosiane, Olorato; Vassallo, Corinne; Busch, Michael W.; Greenberg, Adam; Benner, Lance A. M.; Naidu, Shantanu P.; Duong, Nicholas

2016-10-01

Delay-Doppler radar imaging is a powerful technique to characterize the trajectories, shapes, and spin states of near-Earth asteroids; and has yielded detailed models of dozens of objects. Reconstructing objects' shapes and spins from delay-Doppler data is a computationally intensive inversion problem. Since the 1990s, delay-Doppler data has been analyzed using the SHAPE software. SHAPE performs sequential single-parameter fitting, and requires considerable computer runtime and human intervention (Hudson 1993, Magri et al. 2007). Recently, multiple-parameter fitting algorithms have been shown to more efficiently invert delay-Doppler datasets (Greenberg & Margot 2015) - decreasing runtime while improving accuracy. However, extensive human oversight of the shape modeling process is still required. We have explored two new techniques to better automate delay-Doppler shape modeling: Bayesian optimization and a machine-learning neural network.One of the most time-intensive steps of the shape modeling process is to perform a grid search to constrain the target's spin state. We have implemented a Bayesian optimization routine that uses SHAPE to autonomously search the space of spin-state parameters. To test the efficacy of this technique, we compared it to results with human-guided SHAPE for asteroids 1992 UY4, 2000 RS11, and 2008 EV5. Bayesian optimization yielded similar spin state constraints within a factor of 3 less computer runtime.The shape modeling process could be further accelerated using a deep neural network to replace iterative fitting. We have implemented a neural network with a variational autoencoder (VAE), using a subset of known asteroid shapes and a large set of synthetic radar images as inputs to train the network. Conditioning the VAE in this manner allows the user to give the network a set of radar images and get a 3D shape model as an output. Additional development will be required to train a network to reliably render shapes from delay-Doppler images.This work was supported by NASA Ames, NVIDIA, Autodesk and the SETI Institute as part of the NASA Frontier Development Lab program.

Pivotal response treatment prompts a functional rewiring of the brain among individuals with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Archana; Yang, Daniel Y-J; Dvornek, Nicha; Staib, Lawrence H; Duncan, James S; Pelphrey, Kevin A; Ventola, Pamela

2016-09-28

Behavioral interventions for autism have gained prominence in recent years; however, the neural-systems-level targets of these interventions remain poorly understood. We use a novel Bayesian framework to extract network-based differences before and after a 16-week pivotal response treatment (PRT) regimen. Our results suggest that the functional changes induced by PRT localize to the posterior cingulate and are marked by a shift in connectivity from the orbitofrontal cortex to the occipital-temporal cortex. Our results illuminate a potential PRT-induced learning mechanism, whereby the neural circuits involved during social perception shift from sensory and attentional systems to higher-level object and face processing areas.

Pivotal Response Treatment Prompts a Functional Rewiring of the Brain amongst Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder

PubMed Central

Venkataraman, Archana; Yang, Daniel Y.-J.; Dvornek, Nicha; Staib, Lawrence H.; Duncan, James S.; Pelphrey, Kevin A.; Ventola, Pamela

2016-01-01

Behavioral interventions for autism have gained prominence in recent years; however, the neural-systems-level targets of these interventions remain poorly understood. We use a novel Bayesian framework to extract network-based differences before and after a 16-week Pivotal Response Treatment (PRT) regimen. Our results suggest that functional changes induced by PRT localize to the posterior cingulate and are marked by a shift in connectivity from the orbitofrontal cortex to the occipital temporal cortex. Our results illuminate a potential PRT-induced learning mechanism, whereby the neural circuits involved during social perception shift from sensory and attentional systems to higher-level object and face processing areas. PMID:27532879

Implementing informative priors for heterogeneity in meta-analysis using meta-regression and pseudo data.

PubMed

Rhodes, Kirsty M; Turner, Rebecca M; White, Ian R; Jackson, Dan; Spiegelhalter, David J; Higgins, Julian P T

2016-12-20

Many meta-analyses combine results from only a small number of studies, a situation in which the between-study variance is imprecisely estimated when standard methods are applied. Bayesian meta-analysis allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity, providing the potential for more robust inference on the effect size of interest. We present a method for performing Bayesian meta-analysis using data augmentation, in which we represent an informative conjugate prior for between-study variance by pseudo data and use meta-regression for estimation. To assist in this, we derive predictive inverse-gamma distributions for the between-study variance expected in future meta-analyses. These may serve as priors for heterogeneity in new meta-analyses. In a simulation study, we compare approximate Bayesian methods using meta-regression and pseudo data against fully Bayesian approaches based on importance sampling techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We compare the frequentist properties of these Bayesian methods with those of the commonly used frequentist DerSimonian and Laird procedure. The method is implemented in standard statistical software and provides a less complex alternative to standard MCMC approaches. An importance sampling approach produces almost identical results to standard MCMC approaches, and results obtained through meta-regression and pseudo data are very similar. On average, data augmentation provides closer results to MCMC, if implemented using restricted maximum likelihood estimation rather than DerSimonian and Laird or maximum likelihood estimation. The methods are applied to real datasets, and an extension to network meta-analysis is described. The proposed method facilitates Bayesian meta-analysis in a way that is accessible to applied researchers. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Automatic discovery of cell types and microcircuitry from neural connectomics

PubMed Central

Jonas, Eric; Kording, Konrad

2015-01-01

Neural connectomics has begun producing massive amounts of data, necessitating new analysis methods to discover the biological and computational structure. It has long been assumed that discovering neuron types and their relation to microcircuitry is crucial to understanding neural function. Here we developed a non-parametric Bayesian technique that identifies neuron types and microcircuitry patterns in connectomics data. It combines the information traditionally used by biologists in a principled and probabilistically coherent manner, including connectivity, cell body location, and the spatial distribution of synapses. We show that the approach recovers known neuron types in the retina and enables predictions of connectivity, better than simpler algorithms. It also can reveal interesting structure in the nervous system of Caenorhabditis elegans and an old man-made microprocessor. Our approach extracts structural meaning from connectomics, enabling new approaches of automatically deriving anatomical insights from these emerging datasets. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04250.001 PMID:25928186

Automatic discovery of cell types and microcircuitry from neural connectomics

DOE PAGES

Jonas, Eric; Kording, Konrad

2015-04-30

Neural connectomics has begun producing massive amounts of data, necessitating new analysis methods to discover the biological and computational structure. It has long been assumed that discovering neuron types and their relation to microcircuitry is crucial to understanding neural function. Here we developed a non-parametric Bayesian technique that identifies neuron types and microcircuitry patterns in connectomics data. It combines the information traditionally used by biologists in a principled and probabilistically coherent manner, including connectivity, cell body location, and the spatial distribution of synapses. We show that the approach recovers known neuron types in the retina and enables predictions of connectivity,more » better than simpler algorithms. It also can reveal interesting structure in the nervous system of Caenorhabditis elegans and an old man-made microprocessor. Our approach extracts structural meaning from connectomics, enabling new approaches of automatically deriving anatomical insights from these emerging datasets.« less

Neural representation of orientation relative to gravity in the macaque cerebellum

PubMed Central

Laurens, Jean; Meng, Hui; Angelaki, Dora E.

2013-01-01

Summary A fundamental challenge for maintaining spatial orientation and interacting with the world is knowledge of our orientation relative to gravity, i.e. tilt. Sensing gravity is complicated because of Einstein’s equivalence principle, where gravitational and translational accelerations are physically indistinguishable. Theory has proposed that this ambiguity is solved by tracking head tilt through multisensory integration. Here we identify a group of Purkinje cells in the caudal cerebellar vermis with responses that reflect an estimate of head tilt. These tilt-selective cells are complementary to translation-selective Purkinje cells, such that their population activities sum to the net gravito-inertial acceleration encoded by the otolith organs, as predicted by theory. These findings reflect the remarkable ability of the cerebellum for neural computation and provide novel quantitative evidence for a neural representation of gravity, whose calculation relies on long-postulated theoretical concepts such as internal models and Bayesian priors. PMID:24360549

Automatic discovery of cell types and microcircuitry from neural connectomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jonas, Eric; Kording, Konrad

Neural connectomics has begun producing massive amounts of data, necessitating new analysis methods to discover the biological and computational structure. It has long been assumed that discovering neuron types and their relation to microcircuitry is crucial to understanding neural function. Here we developed a non-parametric Bayesian technique that identifies neuron types and microcircuitry patterns in connectomics data. It combines the information traditionally used by biologists in a principled and probabilistically coherent manner, including connectivity, cell body location, and the spatial distribution of synapses. We show that the approach recovers known neuron types in the retina and enables predictions of connectivity,more » better than simpler algorithms. It also can reveal interesting structure in the nervous system of Caenorhabditis elegans and an old man-made microprocessor. Our approach extracts structural meaning from connectomics, enabling new approaches of automatically deriving anatomical insights from these emerging datasets.« less

Assessing the association between natural food folate intake and blood folate concentrations: a systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis of trials and observational studies.

PubMed

Marchetta, Claire M; Devine, Owen J; Crider, Krista S; Tsang, Becky L; Cordero, Amy M; Qi, Yan Ping; Guo, Jing; Berry, Robert J; Rosenthal, Jorge; Mulinare, Joseph; Mersereau, Patricia; Hamner, Heather C

2015-04-10

Folate is found naturally in foods or as synthetic folic acid in dietary supplements and fortified foods. Adequate periconceptional folic acid intake can prevent neural tube defects. Folate intake impacts blood folate concentration; however, the dose-response between natural food folate and blood folate concentrations has not been well described. We estimated this association among healthy females. A systematic literature review identified studies (1 1992-3 2014) with both natural food folate intake alone and blood folate concentration among females aged 12-49 years. Bayesian methods were used to estimate regression model parameters describing the association between natural food folate intake and subsequent blood folate concentration. Seven controlled trials and 29 observational studies met the inclusion criteria. For the six studies using microbiologic assay (MA) included in the meta-analysis, we estimate that a 6% (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 4%, 9%) increase in red blood cell (RBC) folate concentration and a 7% (95% CrI: 1%, 12%) increase in serum/plasma folate concentration can occur for every 10% increase in natural food folate intake. Using modeled results, we estimate that a natural food folate intake of ≥ 450 μg dietary folate equivalents (DFE)/day could achieve the lower bound of an RBC folate concentration (~ 1050 nmol/L) associated with the lowest risk of a neural tube defect. Natural food folate intake affects blood folate concentration and adequate intakes could help women achieve a RBC folate concentration associated with a risk of 6 neural tube defects/10,000 live births.

Assessment of groundwater quality: a fusion of geochemical and geophysical information via Bayesian neural networks.

PubMed

Maiti, Saumen; Erram, V C; Gupta, Gautam; Tiwari, Ram Krishna; Kulkarni, U D; Sangpal, R R

2013-04-01

Deplorable quality of groundwater arising from saltwater intrusion, natural leaching and anthropogenic activities is one of the major concerns for the society. Assessment of groundwater quality is, therefore, a primary objective of scientific research. Here, we propose an artificial neural network-based method set in a Bayesian neural network (BNN) framework and employ it to assess groundwater quality. The approach is based on analyzing 36 water samples and inverting up to 85 Schlumberger vertical electrical sounding data. We constructed a priori model by suitably parameterizing geochemical and geophysical data collected from the western part of India. The posterior model (post-inversion) was estimated using the BNN learning procedure and global hybrid Monte Carlo/Markov Chain Monte Carlo optimization scheme. By suitable parameterization of geochemical and geophysical parameters, we simulated 1,500 training samples, out of which 50 % samples were used for training and remaining 50 % were used for validation and testing. We show that the trained model is able to classify validation and test samples with 85 % and 80 % accuracy respectively. Based on cross-correlation analysis and Gibb's diagram of geochemical attributes, the groundwater qualities of the study area were classified into following three categories: "Very good", "Good", and "Unsuitable". The BNN model-based results suggest that groundwater quality falls mostly in the range of "Good" to "Very good" except for some places near the Arabian Sea. The new modeling results powered by uncertainty and statistical analyses would provide useful constrain, which could be utilized in monitoring and assessment of the groundwater quality.

Synaptic and nonsynaptic plasticity approximating probabilistic inference

PubMed Central

Tully, Philip J.; Hennig, Matthias H.; Lansner, Anders

2014-01-01

Learning and memory operations in neural circuits are believed to involve molecular cascades of synaptic and nonsynaptic changes that lead to a diverse repertoire of dynamical phenomena at higher levels of processing. Hebbian and homeostatic plasticity, neuromodulation, and intrinsic excitability all conspire to form and maintain memories. But it is still unclear how these seemingly redundant mechanisms could jointly orchestrate learning in a more unified system. To this end, a Hebbian learning rule for spiking neurons inspired by Bayesian statistics is proposed. In this model, synaptic weights and intrinsic currents are adapted on-line upon arrival of single spikes, which initiate a cascade of temporally interacting memory traces that locally estimate probabilities associated with relative neuronal activation levels. Trace dynamics enable synaptic learning to readily demonstrate a spike-timing dependence, stably return to a set-point over long time scales, and remain competitive despite this stability. Beyond unsupervised learning, linking the traces with an external plasticity-modulating signal enables spike-based reinforcement learning. At the postsynaptic neuron, the traces are represented by an activity-dependent ion channel that is shown to regulate the input received by a postsynaptic cell and generate intrinsic graded persistent firing levels. We show how spike-based Hebbian-Bayesian learning can be performed in a simulated inference task using integrate-and-fire (IAF) neurons that are Poisson-firing and background-driven, similar to the preferred regime of cortical neurons. Our results support the view that neurons can represent information in the form of probability distributions, and that probabilistic inference could be a functional by-product of coupled synaptic and nonsynaptic mechanisms operating over several timescales. The model provides a biophysical realization of Bayesian computation by reconciling several observed neural phenomena whose functional effects are only partially understood in concert. PMID:24782758

Distributed Bayesian Computation and Self-Organized Learning in Sheets of Spiking Neurons with Local Lateral Inhibition

PubMed Central

Bill, Johannes; Buesing, Lars; Habenschuss, Stefan; Nessler, Bernhard; Maass, Wolfgang; Legenstein, Robert

2015-01-01

During the last decade, Bayesian probability theory has emerged as a framework in cognitive science and neuroscience for describing perception, reasoning and learning of mammals. However, our understanding of how probabilistic computations could be organized in the brain, and how the observed connectivity structure of cortical microcircuits supports these calculations, is rudimentary at best. In this study, we investigate statistical inference and self-organized learning in a spatially extended spiking network model, that accommodates both local competitive and large-scale associative aspects of neural information processing, under a unified Bayesian account. Specifically, we show how the spiking dynamics of a recurrent network with lateral excitation and local inhibition in response to distributed spiking input, can be understood as sampling from a variational posterior distribution of a well-defined implicit probabilistic model. This interpretation further permits a rigorous analytical treatment of experience-dependent plasticity on the network level. Using machine learning theory, we derive update rules for neuron and synapse parameters which equate with Hebbian synaptic and homeostatic intrinsic plasticity rules in a neural implementation. In computer simulations, we demonstrate that the interplay of these plasticity rules leads to the emergence of probabilistic local experts that form distributed assemblies of similarly tuned cells communicating through lateral excitatory connections. The resulting sparse distributed spike code of a well-adapted network carries compressed information on salient input features combined with prior experience on correlations among them. Our theory predicts that the emergence of such efficient representations benefits from network architectures in which the range of local inhibition matches the spatial extent of pyramidal cells that share common afferent input. PMID:26284370

BUMPER: the Bayesian User-friendly Model for Palaeo-Environmental Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, Phil; Birks, John; Brooks, Steve; Bush, Mark; Hwang, Grace; Matthews-Bird, Frazer; Valencia, Bryan; van Woesik, Robert

2017-04-01

We describe the Bayesian User-friendly Model for Palaeo-Environmental Reconstruction (BUMPER), a Bayesian transfer function for inferring past climate and other environmental variables from microfossil assemblages. The principal motivation for a Bayesian approach is that the palaeoenvironment is treated probabilistically, and can be updated as additional data become available. Bayesian approaches therefore provide a reconstruction-specific quantification of the uncertainty in the data and in the model parameters. BUMPER is fully self-calibrating, straightforward to apply, and computationally fast, requiring 2 seconds to build a 100-taxon model from a 100-site training-set on a standard personal computer. We apply the model's probabilistic framework to generate thousands of artificial training-sets under ideal assumptions. We then use these to demonstrate both the general applicability of the model and the sensitivity of reconstructions to the characteristics of the training-set, considering assemblage richness, taxon tolerances, and the number of training sites. We demonstrate general applicability to real data, considering three different organism types (chironomids, diatoms, pollen) and different reconstructed variables. In all of these applications an identically configured model is used, the only change being the input files that provide the training-set environment and taxon-count data.

A Bayesian sequential design with adaptive randomization for 2-sided hypothesis test.

PubMed

Yu, Qingzhao; Zhu, Lin; Zhu, Han

2017-11-01

Bayesian sequential and adaptive randomization designs are gaining popularity in clinical trials thanks to their potentials to reduce the number of required participants and save resources. We propose a Bayesian sequential design with adaptive randomization rates so as to more efficiently attribute newly recruited patients to different treatment arms. In this paper, we consider 2-arm clinical trials. Patients are allocated to the 2 arms with a randomization rate to achieve minimum variance for the test statistic. Algorithms are presented to calculate the optimal randomization rate, critical values, and power for the proposed design. Sensitivity analysis is implemented to check the influence on design by changing the prior distributions. Simulation studies are applied to compare the proposed method and traditional methods in terms of power and actual sample sizes. Simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design can obtain greater power and/or cost smaller actual sample size than the traditional Bayesian sequential design. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with the Bayesian sequential design without adaptive randomization in terms of sample sizes. The proposed method can further reduce required sample size. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

PubMed Central

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2015-01-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. PMID:22364575

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

PubMed

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2013-02-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawford, Aaron

2014-01-01

This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

Bayesian-information-gap decision theory with an application to CO 2 sequestration

DOE PAGES

O'Malley, D.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2015-09-04

Decisions related to subsurface engineering problems such as groundwater management, fossil fuel production, and geologic carbon sequestration are frequently challenging because of an overabundance of uncertainties (related to conceptualizations, parameters, observations, etc.). Because of the importance of these problems to agriculture, energy, and the climate (respectively), good decisions that are scientifically defensible must be made despite the uncertainties. We describe a general approach to making decisions for challenging problems such as these in the presence of severe uncertainties that combines probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods. The approach uses Bayesian sampling to assess parametric uncertainty and Information-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to addressmore » model inadequacy. The combined approach also resolves an issue that frequently arises when applying Bayesian methods to real-world engineering problems related to the enumeration of possible outcomes. In the case of zero non-probabilistic uncertainty, the method reduces to a Bayesian method. Lastly, to illustrate the approach, we apply it to a site-selection decision for geologic CO 2 sequestration.« less

A Framework for Final Drive Simultaneous Failure Diagnosis Based on Fuzzy Entropy and Sparse Bayesian Extreme Learning Machine

PubMed Central

Ye, Qing; Pan, Hao; Liu, Changhua

2015-01-01

This research proposes a novel framework of final drive simultaneous failure diagnosis containing feature extraction, training paired diagnostic models, generating decision threshold, and recognizing simultaneous failure modes. In feature extraction module, adopt wavelet package transform and fuzzy entropy to reduce noise interference and extract representative features of failure mode. Use single failure sample to construct probability classifiers based on paired sparse Bayesian extreme learning machine which is trained only by single failure modes and have high generalization and sparsity of sparse Bayesian learning approach. To generate optimal decision threshold which can convert probability output obtained from classifiers into final simultaneous failure modes, this research proposes using samples containing both single and simultaneous failure modes and Grid search method which is superior to traditional techniques in global optimization. Compared with other frequently used diagnostic approaches based on support vector machine and probability neural networks, experiment results based on F 1-measure value verify that the diagnostic accuracy and efficiency of the proposed framework which are crucial for simultaneous failure diagnosis are superior to the existing approach. PMID:25722717

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

PubMed

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Ijaz; Spöck, Gunter; Pilz, Jürgen; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2010-08-01

Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space-time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space-time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box-Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space-time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974-2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space-time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.

Bayesian network modeling applied to coastal geomorphology: lessons learned from a decade of experimentation and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Gutierrez, B.; Lentz, E. E.; Zeigler, S. L.; Van Dongeren, A.; Fienen, M. N.

2016-12-01

We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Bayesian networks that have been used to address scientific and decision-support questions related to coastal geomorphology. We will provide an overview of coastal geomorphology research that has used Bayesian networks and describe what this approach can do and when it works (or fails to work). Over the past decade, Bayesian networks have been formulated to analyze the multi-variate structure and evolution of coastal morphology and associated human and ecological impacts. The approach relates observable system variables to each other by estimating discrete correlations. The resulting Bayesian-networks make predictions that propagate errors, conduct inference via Bayes rule, or both. In scientific applications, the model results are useful for hypothesis testing, using confidence estimates to gage the strength of tests while applications to coastal resource management are aimed at decision-support, where the probabilities of desired ecosystems outcomes are evaluated. The range of Bayesian-network applications to coastal morphology includes emulation of high-resolution wave transformation models to make oceanographic predictions, morphologic response to storms and/or sea-level rise, groundwater response to sea-level rise and morphologic variability, habitat suitability for endangered species, and assessment of monetary or human-life risk associated with storms. All of these examples are based on vast observational data sets, numerical model output, or both. We will discuss the progression of our experiments, which has included testing whether the Bayesian-network approach can be implemented and is appropriate for addressing basic and applied scientific problems and evaluating the hindcast and forecast skill of these implementations. We will present and discuss calibration/validation tests that are used to assess the robustness of Bayesian-network models and we will compare these results to tests of other models. This will demonstrate how Bayesian networks are used to extract new insights about coastal morphologic behavior, assess impacts to societal and ecological systems, and communicate probabilistic predictions to decision makers.

MEG and fMRI Fusion for Non-Linear Estimation of Neural and BOLD Signal Changes

PubMed Central

Plis, Sergey M.; Calhoun, Vince D.; Weisend, Michael P.; Eichele, Tom; Lane, Terran

2010-01-01

The combined analysis of magnetoencephalography (MEG)/electroencephalography and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) measurements can lead to improvement in the description of the dynamical and spatial properties of brain activity. In this paper we empirically demonstrate this improvement using simulated and recorded task related MEG and fMRI activity. Neural activity estimates were derived using a dynamic Bayesian network with continuous real valued parameters by means of a sequential Monte Carlo technique. In synthetic data, we show that MEG and fMRI fusion improves estimation of the indirectly observed neural activity and smooths tracking of the blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) response. In recordings of task related neural activity the combination of MEG and fMRI produces a result with greater signal-to-noise ratio, that confirms the expectation arising from the nature of the experiment. The highly non-linear model of the BOLD response poses a difficult inference problem for neural activity estimation; computational requirements are also high due to the time and space complexity. We show that joint analysis of the data improves the system's behavior by stabilizing the differential equations system and by requiring fewer computational resources. PMID:21120141

A Bayesian Approach to Interactive Retrieval

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tague, Jean M.

1973-01-01

A probabilistic model for interactive retrieval is presented. Bayesian statistical decision theory principles are applied: use of prior and sample information about the relationship of document descriptions to query relevance; maximization of expected value of a utility function, to the problem of optimally restructuring search strategies in an…

VINE: A Variational Inference -Based Bayesian Neural Network Engine

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-01

networks are trained using the same dataset and hyper parameter settings as discussed. Table 1 Performance evaluation of the proposed transfer learning...multiplication/addition/subtraction. These operations can be implemented using nested loops in which various iterations of a loop are independent of...each other. This introduces an opportunity for optimization where a loop may be unrolled fully or partially to increase parallelism at the cost of

Source Reconstruction of Brain Potentials Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Analyze Face Intra-Domain vs. Face-Occupation Cross-Domain Processing

PubMed Central

Olivares, Ela I.; Lage-Castellanos, Agustín; Bobes, María A.; Iglesias, Jaime

2018-01-01

We investigated the neural correlates of the access to and retrieval of face structure information in contrast to those concerning the access to and retrieval of person-related verbal information, triggered by faces. We experimentally induced stimulus familiarity via a systematic learning procedure including faces with and without associated verbal information. Then, we recorded event-related potentials (ERPs) in both intra-domain (face-feature) and cross-domain (face-occupation) matching tasks while N400-like responses were elicited by incorrect eyes-eyebrows completions and occupations, respectively. A novel Bayesian source reconstruction approach plus conjunction analysis of group effects revealed that in both cases the generated N170s were of similar amplitude but had different neural origin. Thus, whereas the N170 of faces was associated predominantly to right fusiform and occipital regions (the so-called “Fusiform Face Area”, “FFA” and “Occipital Face Area”, “OFA”, respectively), the N170 of occupations was associated to a bilateral very posterior activity, suggestive of basic perceptual processes. Importantly, the right-sided perceptual P200 and the face-related N250 were evoked exclusively in the intra-domain task, with sources in OFA and extensively in the fusiform region, respectively. Regarding later latencies, the intra-domain N400 seemed to be generated in right posterior brain regions encompassing mainly OFA and, to some extent, the FFA, likely reflecting neural operations triggered by structural incongruities. In turn, the cross-domain N400 was related to more anterior left-sided fusiform and temporal inferior sources, paralleling those described previously for the classic verbal N400. These results support the existence of differentiated neural streams for face structure and person-related verbal processing triggered by faces, which can be activated differentially according to specific task demands. PMID:29628877

Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

PubMed

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Soft Sensing of Non-Newtonian Fluid Flow in Open Venturi Channel Using an Array of Ultrasonic Level Sensors—AI Models and Their Validations

PubMed Central

Viumdal, Håkon; Mylvaganam, Saba

2017-01-01

In oil and gas and geothermal installations, open channels followed by sieves for removal of drill cuttings, are used to monitor the quality and quantity of the drilling fluids. Drilling fluid flow rate is difficult to measure due to the varying flow conditions (e.g., wavy, turbulent and irregular) and the presence of drilling cuttings and gas bubbles. Inclusion of a Venturi section in the open channel and an array of ultrasonic level sensors above it at locations in the vicinity of and above the Venturi constriction gives the varying levels of the drilling fluid in the channel. The time series of the levels from this array of ultrasonic level sensors are used to estimate the drilling fluid flow rate, which is compared with Coriolis meter measurements. Fuzzy logic, neural networks and support vector regression algorithms applied to the data from temporal and spatial ultrasonic level measurements of the drilling fluid in the open channel give estimates of its flow rate with sufficient reliability, repeatability and uncertainty, providing a novel soft sensing of an important process variable. Simulations, cross-validations and experimental results show that feedforward neural networks with the Bayesian regularization learning algorithm provide the best flow rate estimates. Finally, the benefits of using this soft sensing technique combined with Venturi constriction in open channels are discussed. PMID:29072595

Transferring and generalizing deep-learning-based neural encoding models across subjects.

PubMed

Wen, Haiguang; Shi, Junxing; Chen, Wei; Liu, Zhongming

2018-08-01

Recent studies have shown the value of using deep learning models for mapping and characterizing how the brain represents and organizes information for natural vision. However, modeling the relationship between deep learning models and the brain (or encoding models), requires measuring cortical responses to large and diverse sets of natural visual stimuli from single subjects. This requirement limits prior studies to few subjects, making it difficult to generalize findings across subjects or for a population. In this study, we developed new methods to transfer and generalize encoding models across subjects. To train encoding models specific to a target subject, the models trained for other subjects were used as the prior models and were refined efficiently using Bayesian inference with a limited amount of data from the target subject. To train encoding models for a population, the models were progressively trained and updated with incremental data from different subjects. For the proof of principle, we applied these methods to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from three subjects watching tens of hours of naturalistic videos, while a deep residual neural network driven by image recognition was used to model visual cortical processing. Results demonstrate that the methods developed herein provide an efficient and effective strategy to establish both subject-specific and population-wide predictive models of cortical representations of high-dimensional and hierarchical visual features. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multicell migration tracking within angiogenic networks by deep learning-based segmentation and augmented Bayesian filtering.

PubMed

Wang, Mengmeng; Ong, Lee-Ling Sharon; Dauwels, Justin; Asada, H Harry

2018-04-01

Cell migration is a key feature for living organisms. Image analysis tools are useful in studying cell migration in three-dimensional (3-D) in vitro environments. We consider angiogenic vessels formed in 3-D microfluidic devices (MFDs) and develop an image analysis system to extract cell behaviors from experimental phase-contrast microscopy image sequences. The proposed system initializes tracks with the end-point confocal nuclei coordinates. We apply convolutional neural networks to detect cell candidates and combine backward Kalman filtering with multiple hypothesis tracking to link the cell candidates at each time step. These hypotheses incorporate prior knowledge on vessel formation and cell proliferation rates. The association accuracy reaches 86.4% for the proposed algorithm, indicating that the proposed system is able to associate cells more accurately than existing approaches. Cell culture experiments in 3-D MFDs have shown considerable promise for improving biology research. The proposed system is expected to be a useful quantitative tool for potential microscopy problems of MFDs.

Assessing Vermont's stream health and biological integrity using artificial neural networks and Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzo, D. M.; Fytilis, N.; Stevens, L.

2012-12-01

Environmental managers are increasingly required to monitor and forecast long-term effects and vulnerability of biophysical systems to human-generated stresses. Ideally, a study involving both physical and biological assessments conducted concurrently (in space and time) could provide a better understanding of the mechanisms and complex relationships. However, costs and resources associated with monitoring the complex linkages between the physical, geomorphic and habitat conditions and the biological integrity of stream reaches are prohibitive. Researchers have used classification techniques to place individual streams and rivers into a broader spatial context (hydrologic or health condition). Such efforts require environmental managers to gather multiple forms of information - quantitative, qualitative and subjective. We research and develop a novel classification tool that combines self-organizing maps with a Naïve Bayesian classifier to direct resources to stream reaches most in need. The Vermont Agency of Natural Resources has developed and adopted protocols for physical stream geomorphic and habitat assessments throughout the state of Vermont. Separate from these assessments, the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation monitors the biological communities and the water quality in streams. Our initial hypothesis is that the geomorphic reach assessments and water quality data may be leveraged to reduce error and uncertainty associated with predictions of biological integrity and stream health. We test our hypothesis using over 2500 Vermont stream reaches (~1371 stream miles) assessed by the two agencies. In the development of this work, we combine a Naïve Bayesian classifier with a modified Kohonen Self-Organizing Map (SOM). The SOM is an unsupervised artificial neural network that autonomously analyzes inherent dataset properties using input data only. It is typically used to cluster data into similar categories when a priori classes do not exist. The incorporation of a Bayesian classifier allows one to explicitly incorporate existing knowledge and expert opinion into the data analysis. Since classification plays a leading role in the future development of data-enabled science and engineering, such a computational tool is applicable to a variety of proactive adaptive watershed management applications.

Recurrent-neural-network-based Boolean factor analysis and its application to word clustering.

PubMed

Frolov, Alexander A; Husek, Dusan; Polyakov, Pavel Yu

2009-07-01

The objective of this paper is to introduce a neural-network-based algorithm for word clustering as an extension of the neural-network-based Boolean factor analysis algorithm (Frolov , 2007). It is shown that this extended algorithm supports even the more complex model of signals that are supposed to be related to textual documents. It is hypothesized that every topic in textual data is characterized by a set of words which coherently appear in documents dedicated to a given topic. The appearance of each word in a document is coded by the activity of a particular neuron. In accordance with the Hebbian learning rule implemented in the network, sets of coherently appearing words (treated as factors) create tightly connected groups of neurons, hence, revealing them as attractors of the network dynamics. The found factors are eliminated from the network memory by the Hebbian unlearning rule facilitating the search of other factors. Topics related to the found sets of words can be identified based on the words' semantics. To make the method complete, a special technique based on a Bayesian procedure has been developed for the following purposes: first, to provide a complete description of factors in terms of component probability, and second, to enhance the accuracy of classification of signals to determine whether it contains the factor. Since it is assumed that every word may possibly contribute to several topics, the proposed method might be related to the method of fuzzy clustering. In this paper, we show that the results of Boolean factor analysis and fuzzy clustering are not contradictory, but complementary. To demonstrate the capabilities of this attempt, the method is applied to two types of textual data on neural networks in two different languages. The obtained topics and corresponding words are at a good level of agreement despite the fact that identical topics in Russian and English conferences contain different sets of keywords.

Regional estimation of groundwater arsenic concentrations through systematical dynamic-neural modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Fi-John; Chen, Pin-An; Liu, Chen-Wuing; Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan; Liao, Chung-Min

2013-08-01

Arsenic (As) is an odorless semi-metal that occurs naturally in rock and soil, and As contamination in groundwater resources has become a serious threat to human health. Thus, assessing the spatial and temporal variability of As concentration is highly desirable, particularly in heavily As-contaminated areas. However, various difficulties may be encountered in the regional estimation of As concentration such as cost-intensive field monitoring, scarcity of field data, identification of important factors affecting As, over-fitting or poor estimation accuracy. This study develops a novel systematical dynamic-neural modeling (SDM) for effectively estimating regional As-contaminated water quality by using easily-measured water quality variables. To tackle the difficulties commonly encountered in regional estimation, the SDM comprises of a neural network and four statistical techniques: the Nonlinear Autoregressive with eXogenous input (NARX) network, Gamma test, cross-validation, Bayesian regularization method and indicator kriging (IK). For practical application, this study investigated a heavily As-contaminated area in Taiwan. The backpropagation neural network (BPNN) is adopted for comparison purpose. The results demonstrate that the NARX network (Root mean square error (RMSE): 95.11 μg l-1 for training; 106.13 μg l-1 for validation) outperforms the BPNN (RMSE: 121.54 μg l-1 for training; 143.37 μg l-1 for validation). The constructed SDM can provide reliable estimation (R2 > 0.89) of As concentration at ungauged sites based merely on three easily-measured water quality variables (Alk, Ca2+ and pH). In addition, risk maps under the threshold of the WHO drinking water standard (10 μg l-1) are derived by the IK to visually display the spatial and temporal variation of the As concentration in the whole study area at different time spans. The proposed SDM can be practically applied with satisfaction to the regional estimation in study areas of interest and the estimation of missing, hazardous or costly data to facilitate water resources management.

Bayesian Inference in Satellite Gravity Inversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kis, K. I.; Taylor, Patrick T.; Wittmann, G.; Kim, Hyung Rae; Torony, B.; Mayer-Guerr, T.

2005-01-01

To solve a geophysical inverse problem means applying measurements to determine the parameters of the selected model. The inverse problem is formulated as the Bayesian inference. The Gaussian probability density functions are applied in the Bayes's equation. The CHAMP satellite gravity data are determined at the altitude of 400 kilometer altitude over the South part of the Pannonian basin. The model of interpretation is the right vertical cylinder. The parameters of the model are obtained from the minimum problem solved by the Simplex method.

Bayesian approaches for Integrated Water Resources Management. A Mediterranean case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulliver, Zacarías; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2013-04-01

This study presents the first steps of a short-term/mid-term analysis of the water resources in the Guadalfeo Basin, Spain. Within the basin the recent construction of the Rules dam has required the development of specific management tools and structures for this water system. The climate variability and the high water demand requirements for agriculture irrigation and tourism in this region may cause different controversies in the water management planning process. During the first stages of the study a rigorous analysis of the Water Framework Directive results was done in order to implement the legal requirements and the solutions for the gaps identified by the water authorities. In addition, the stakeholders and water experts identified the variables and geophysical processes for our specific water system case. These particularities need to be taken into account and are required to be reflected in the final computational tool. For decision making process purposes in a mid-term scale, a bayesian network has been used to quantify uncertainty which also provides a structure representation of probabilities, actions-decisions and utilities. On one hand by applying these techniques it is possible the inclusion of decision rules generating influence diagrams that provides clear and coherent semantics for the value of making an observation. On the other hand the utility nodes encode the stakeholders preferences which are measured on a numerical scale, choosing the action that maximizes the expected utility [MEU]. Also this graphical model allows us to identify gaps and project corrective measures, for example, formulating associated scenarios with different event hypotheses. In this sense conditional probability distributions of the seasonal water demand and waste water has been obtained between the established intervals. This fact will give to the regional water managers useful information for future decision making process. The final display is very visual and allows the user to understand quickly the model and the causal relationships between the existing nodes and variables. The input data were collected from the local monitoring networks and the unmonitored data has been generated with a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model WiMMed, which is validated and calibrated. For short-term purposes, pattern analysis has been applied for the management of extreme events scenarios, techniques as Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) or Gaussian Processes (GP) giving accuracy on the predictions.

Instrumentation for Scientific Computing in Neural Networks, Information Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Applied Mathematics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-10-01

include Security Classification) Instrumentation for scientific computing in neural networks, information science, artificial intelligence, and...instrumentation grant to purchase equipment for support of research in neural networks, information science, artificail intellignece , and applied mathematics...in Neural Networks, Information Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Applied Mathematics Contract AFOSR 86-0282 Principal Investigator: Stephen

Bayesian evidence computation for model selection in non-linear geoacoustic inference problems.

PubMed

Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E; Osler, John C

2010-12-01

This paper applies a general Bayesian inference approach, based on Bayesian evidence computation, to geoacoustic inversion of interface-wave dispersion data. Quantitative model selection is carried out by computing the evidence (normalizing constants) for several model parameterizations using annealed importance sampling. The resulting posterior probability density estimate is compared to estimates obtained from Metropolis-Hastings sampling to ensure consistent results. The approach is applied to invert interface-wave dispersion data collected on the Scotian Shelf, off the east coast of Canada for the sediment shear-wave velocity profile. Results are consistent with previous work on these data but extend the analysis to a rigorous approach including model selection and uncertainty analysis. The results are also consistent with core samples and seismic reflection measurements carried out in the area.

Applying Bayesian Modeling and Receiver Operating Characteristic Methodologies for Test Utility Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Qiu; Diemer, Matthew A.; Maier, Kimberly S.

2013-01-01

This study integrated Bayesian hierarchical modeling and receiver operating characteristic analysis (BROCA) to evaluate how interest strength (IS) and interest differentiation (ID) predicted low–socioeconomic status (SES) youth's interest-major congruence (IMC). Using large-scale Kuder Career Search online-assessment data, this study fit three…

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

EPA Science Inventory

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

Spectral Bayesian Knowledge Tracing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falakmasir, Mohammad; Yudelson, Michael; Ritter, Steve; Koedinger, Ken

2015-01-01

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) has been in wide use for modeling student skill acquisition in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS). BKT tracks and updates student's latent mastery of a skill as a probability distribution of a binary variable. BKT does so by accounting for observed student successes in applying the skill correctly, where success is…

Fitting Residual Error Structures for Growth Models in SAS PROC MCMC

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNeish, Daniel

2017-01-01

In behavioral sciences broadly, estimating growth models with Bayesian methods is becoming increasingly common, especially to combat small samples common with longitudinal data. Although Mplus is becoming an increasingly common program for applied research employing Bayesian methods, the limited selection of prior distributions for the elements of…

Comparison of RF spectrum prediction methods for dynamic spectrum access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovarskiy, Jacob A.; Martone, Anthony F.; Gallagher, Kyle A.; Sherbondy, Kelly D.; Narayanan, Ram M.

2017-05-01

Dynamic spectrum access (DSA) refers to the adaptive utilization of today's busy electromagnetic spectrum. Cognitive radio/radar technologies require DSA to intelligently transmit and receive information in changing environments. Predicting radio frequency (RF) activity reduces sensing time and energy consumption for identifying usable spectrum. Typical spectrum prediction methods involve modeling spectral statistics with Hidden Markov Models (HMM) or various neural network structures. HMMs describe the time-varying state probabilities of Markov processes as a dynamic Bayesian network. Neural Networks model biological brain neuron connections to perform a wide range of complex and often non-linear computations. This work compares HMM, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) algorithms and their ability to perform RF channel state prediction. Monte Carlo simulations on both measured and simulated spectrum data evaluate the performance of these algorithms. Generalizing spectrum occupancy as an alternating renewal process allows Poisson random variables to generate simulated data while energy detection determines the occupancy state of measured RF spectrum data for testing. The results suggest that neural networks achieve better prediction accuracy and prove more adaptable to changing spectral statistics than HMMs given sufficient training data.

Probabilistic inference under time pressure leads to a cortical-to-subcortical shift in decision evidence integration.

PubMed

Oh-Descher, Hanna; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ferrari, Silvia; Sommer, Marc A; Egner, Tobias

2017-11-15

Real-life decision-making often involves combining multiple probabilistic sources of information under finite time and cognitive resources. To mitigate these pressures, people "satisfice", foregoing a full evaluation of all available evidence to focus on a subset of cues that allow for fast and "good-enough" decisions. Although this form of decision-making likely mediates many of our everyday choices, very little is known about the way in which the neural encoding of cue information changes when we satisfice under time pressure. Here, we combined human functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with a probabilistic classification task to characterize neural substrates of multi-cue decision-making under low (1500 ms) and high (500 ms) time pressure. Using variational Bayesian inference, we analyzed participants' choices to track and quantify cue usage under each experimental condition, which was then applied to model the fMRI data. Under low time pressure, participants performed near-optimally, appropriately integrating all available cues to guide choices. Both cortical (prefrontal and parietal cortex) and subcortical (hippocampal and striatal) regions encoded individual cue weights, and activity linearly tracked trial-by-trial variations in the amount of evidence and decision uncertainty. Under increased time pressure, participants adaptively shifted to using a satisficing strategy by discounting the least informative cue in their decision process. This strategic change in decision-making was associated with an increased involvement of the dopaminergic midbrain, striatum, thalamus, and cerebellum in representing and integrating cue values. We conclude that satisficing the probabilistic inference process under time pressure leads to a cortical-to-subcortical shift in the neural drivers of decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging for Non-Uniqueness and Uncertainty Analysis of Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fijani, E.; Chitsazan, N.; Nadiri, A.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

2012-12-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to estimate concentration of chemicals in groundwater systems. However, estimation uncertainty is rarely discussed in the literature. Uncertainty in ANN output stems from three sources: ANN inputs, ANN parameters (weights and biases), and ANN structures. Uncertainty in ANN inputs may come from input data selection and/or input data error. ANN parameters are naturally uncertain because they are maximum-likelihood estimated. ANN structure is also uncertain because there is no unique ANN model given a specific case. Therefore, multiple plausible AI models are generally resulted for a study. One might ask why good models have to be ignored in favor of the best model in traditional estimation. What is the ANN estimation variance? How do the variances from different ANN models accumulate to the total estimation variance? To answer these questions we propose a Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging (HBMA) framework. Instead of choosing one ANN model (the best ANN model) for estimation, HBMA averages outputs of all plausible ANN models. The model weights are based on the evidence of data. Therefore, the HBMA avoids overconfidence on the single best ANN model. In addition, HBMA is able to analyze uncertainty propagation through aggregation of ANN models in a hierarchy framework. This method is applied for estimation of fluoride concentration in the Poldasht plain and the Bazargan plain in Iran. Unusually high fluoride concentration in the Poldasht and Bazargan plains has caused negative effects on the public health. Management of this anomaly requires estimation of fluoride concentration distribution in the area. The results show that the HBMA provides a knowledge-decision-based framework that facilitates analyzing and quantifying ANN estimation uncertainties from different sources. In addition HBMA allows comparative evaluation of the realizations for each source of uncertainty by segregating the uncertainty sources in a hierarchical framework. Fluoride concentration estimation using the HBMA method shows better agreement to the observation data in the test step because they are not based on a single model with a non-dominate weights.

Estimation of Lithological Classification in Taipei Basin: A Bayesian Maximum Entropy Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Meng-Ting; Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2015-04-01

In environmental or other scientific applications, we must have a certain understanding of geological lithological composition. Because of restrictions of real conditions, only limited amount of data can be acquired. To find out the lithological distribution in the study area, many spatial statistical methods used to estimate the lithological composition on unsampled points or grids. This study applied the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME method), which is an emerging method of the geological spatiotemporal statistics field. The BME method can identify the spatiotemporal correlation of the data, and combine not only the hard data but the soft data to improve estimation. The data of lithological classification is discrete categorical data. Therefore, this research applied Categorical BME to establish a complete three-dimensional Lithological estimation model. Apply the limited hard data from the cores and the soft data generated from the geological dating data and the virtual wells to estimate the three-dimensional lithological classification in Taipei Basin. Keywords: Categorical Bayesian Maximum Entropy method, Lithological Classification, Hydrogeological Setting

Power plant fault detection using artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanakodi, Suresh; Nazar, Nazatul Shiema Moh; Joini, Nur Fazriana; Hidzir, Hidzrin Dayana Mohd; Awira, Mohammad Zulfikar Khairul

2018-02-01

The fault that commonly occurs in power plants is due to various factors that affect the system outage. There are many types of faults in power plants such as single line to ground fault, double line to ground fault, and line to line fault. The primary aim of this paper is to diagnose the fault in 14 buses power plants by using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The Multilayered Perceptron Network (MLP) that detection trained utilized the offline training methods such as Gradient Descent Backpropagation (GDBP), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and Bayesian Regularization (BR). The best method is used to build the Graphical User Interface (GUI). The modelling of 14 buses power plant, network training, and GUI used the MATLAB software.

Decision theory, reinforcement learning, and the brain.

PubMed

Dayan, Peter; Daw, Nathaniel D

2008-12-01

Decision making is a core competence for animals and humans acting and surviving in environments they only partially comprehend, gaining rewards and punishments for their troubles. Decision-theoretic concepts permeate experiments and computational models in ethology, psychology, and neuroscience. Here, we review a well-known, coherent Bayesian approach to decision making, showing how it unifies issues in Markovian decision problems, signal detection psychophysics, sequential sampling, and optimal exploration and discuss paradigmatic psychological and neural examples of each problem. We discuss computational issues concerning what subjects know about their task and how ambitious they are in seeking optimal solutions; we address algorithmic topics concerning model-based and model-free methods for making choices; and we highlight key aspects of the neural implementation of decision making.

Carbon Nanotube Growth Rate Regression using Support Vector Machines and Artificial Neural Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-27

intensity D peak. Reprinted with permission from [38]. The SVM classifier is trained using custom written Java code leveraging the Sequential Minimal...Society Encog is a machine learning framework for Java , C++ and .Net applications that supports Bayesian Networks, Hidden Markov Models, SVMs and ANNs [13...SVM classifiers are trained using Weka libraries and leveraging custom written Java code. The data set is created as an Attribute Relationship File

The Automatic Neuroscientist: A framework for optimizing experimental design with closed-loop real-time fMRI

PubMed Central

Lorenz, Romy; Monti, Ricardo Pio; Violante, Inês R.; Anagnostopoulos, Christoforos; Faisal, Aldo A.; Montana, Giovanni; Leech, Robert

2016-01-01

Functional neuroimaging typically explores how a particular task activates a set of brain regions. Importantly though, the same neural system can be activated by inherently different tasks. To date, there is no approach available that systematically explores whether and how distinct tasks probe the same neural system. Here, we propose and validate an alternative framework, the Automatic Neuroscientist, which turns the standard fMRI approach on its head. We use real-time fMRI in combination with modern machine-learning techniques to automatically design the optimal experiment to evoke a desired target brain state. In this work, we present two proof-of-principle studies involving perceptual stimuli. In both studies optimization algorithms of varying complexity were employed; the first involved a stochastic approximation method while the second incorporated a more sophisticated Bayesian optimization technique. In the first study, we achieved convergence for the hypothesized optimum in 11 out of 14 runs in less than 10 min. Results of the second study showed how our closed-loop framework accurately and with high efficiency estimated the underlying relationship between stimuli and neural responses for each subject in one to two runs: with each run lasting 6.3 min. Moreover, we demonstrate that using only the first run produced a reliable solution at a group-level. Supporting simulation analyses provided evidence on the robustness of the Bayesian optimization approach for scenarios with low contrast-to-noise ratio. This framework is generalizable to numerous applications, ranging from optimizing stimuli in neuroimaging pilot studies to tailoring clinical rehabilitation therapy to patients and can be used with multiple imaging modalities in humans and animals. PMID:26804778

The Automatic Neuroscientist: A framework for optimizing experimental design with closed-loop real-time fMRI.

PubMed

Lorenz, Romy; Monti, Ricardo Pio; Violante, Inês R; Anagnostopoulos, Christoforos; Faisal, Aldo A; Montana, Giovanni; Leech, Robert

2016-04-01

Functional neuroimaging typically explores how a particular task activates a set of brain regions. Importantly though, the same neural system can be activated by inherently different tasks. To date, there is no approach available that systematically explores whether and how distinct tasks probe the same neural system. Here, we propose and validate an alternative framework, the Automatic Neuroscientist, which turns the standard fMRI approach on its head. We use real-time fMRI in combination with modern machine-learning techniques to automatically design the optimal experiment to evoke a desired target brain state. In this work, we present two proof-of-principle studies involving perceptual stimuli. In both studies optimization algorithms of varying complexity were employed; the first involved a stochastic approximation method while the second incorporated a more sophisticated Bayesian optimization technique. In the first study, we achieved convergence for the hypothesized optimum in 11 out of 14 runs in less than 10 min. Results of the second study showed how our closed-loop framework accurately and with high efficiency estimated the underlying relationship between stimuli and neural responses for each subject in one to two runs: with each run lasting 6.3 min. Moreover, we demonstrate that using only the first run produced a reliable solution at a group-level. Supporting simulation analyses provided evidence on the robustness of the Bayesian optimization approach for scenarios with low contrast-to-noise ratio. This framework is generalizable to numerous applications, ranging from optimizing stimuli in neuroimaging pilot studies to tailoring clinical rehabilitation therapy to patients and can be used with multiple imaging modalities in humans and animals. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Benefits of varenicline vs. bupropion for smoking cessation: a Bayesian analysis of the interaction of reward sensitivity and treatment

PubMed Central

Green, Charles E.; Robinson, Jason D.; Karam-Hage, Maher; Engelmann, Jeffrey M.; Minnix, Jennifer A.; Wetter, David W.; Versace, Francesco

2018-01-01

Rationale We have shown that differences in the level of neural activation to stimuli associated with smoking vs. natural rewards, a biomarker related to reward sensitivity, predict treatment outcome. Objectives This paper examined whether this biomarker moderates the impact of bupropion or varenicline on smoking cessation. Methods Prior to treatment randomization, smokers (N = 180) in a placebo-controlled trial using bupropion and varenicline completed event-related potential recording (late positive potential, LPP) while viewing pleasant (P), cigarette (C)-related, and other pictures. We used Bayesian models to estimate the probability of interaction between treatment and the LPP for both efficacy and comparative effectiveness analyses. Results Efficacy analysis showed that smokers with more neural activation to pleasant vs. cigarette-related stimuli (P > C) had a 98–99% chance of achieving greater abstinence than placebo (OR >1.00), using either medication from the end of treatment (EOT, primary outcome) through the 3-month follow-up. Relative to placebo, smokers with higher activation to cigarette-related vs. pleasant stimuli (C > P) had a 99% chance of increased benefit from varenicline at both time points (OR >1), but only 67 and 43% with bupropion at the EOT and 3-month follow-up, respectively. Comparative effectiveness analysis found that smokers with the C > P activation pattern had a 95–98% chance of benefit from varenicline vs. bupropion, while P > C smokers had a 50–58% chance of similar improvement with varenicline at the EOT and 3 months. Conclusions Varenicline appears to be the treatment of choice for smokers with the C > P pattern of neural activation, while for those showing P > C, varenicline and bupropion have similar efficacy. PMID:28275830

Bayesian cloud detection for MERIS, AATSR, and their combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollstein, A.; Fischer, J.; Carbajal Henken, C.; Preusker, R.

2014-11-01

A broad range of different of Bayesian cloud detection schemes is applied to measurements from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), and their combination. The cloud masks were designed to be numerically efficient and suited for the processing of large amounts of data. Results from the classical and naive approach to Bayesian cloud masking are discussed for MERIS and AATSR as well as for their combination. A sensitivity study on the resolution of multidimensional histograms, which were post-processed by Gaussian smoothing, shows how theoretically insufficient amounts of truth data can be used to set up accurate classical Bayesian cloud masks. Sets of exploited features from single and derived channels are numerically optimized and results for naive and classical Bayesian cloud masks are presented. The application of the Bayesian approach is discussed in terms of reproducing existing algorithms, enhancing existing algorithms, increasing the robustness of existing algorithms, and on setting up new classification schemes based on manually classified scenes.

Bayesian cloud detection for MERIS, AATSR, and their combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollstein, A.; Fischer, J.; Carbajal Henken, C.; Preusker, R.

2015-04-01

A broad range of different of Bayesian cloud detection schemes is applied to measurements from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), and their combination. The cloud detection schemes were designed to be numerically efficient and suited for the processing of large numbers of data. Results from the classical and naive approach to Bayesian cloud masking are discussed for MERIS and AATSR as well as for their combination. A sensitivity study on the resolution of multidimensional histograms, which were post-processed by Gaussian smoothing, shows how theoretically insufficient numbers of truth data can be used to set up accurate classical Bayesian cloud masks. Sets of exploited features from single and derived channels are numerically optimized and results for naive and classical Bayesian cloud masks are presented. The application of the Bayesian approach is discussed in terms of reproducing existing algorithms, enhancing existing algorithms, increasing the robustness of existing algorithms, and on setting up new classification schemes based on manually classified scenes.

Bayesian Inference in the Modern Design of Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2008-01-01

This paper provides an elementary tutorial overview of Bayesian inference and its potential for application in aerospace experimentation in general and wind tunnel testing in particular. Bayes Theorem is reviewed and examples are provided to illustrate how it can be applied to objectively revise prior knowledge by incorporating insights subsequently obtained from additional observations, resulting in new (posterior) knowledge that combines information from both sources. A logical merger of Bayesian methods and certain aspects of Response Surface Modeling is explored. Specific applications to wind tunnel testing, computational code validation, and instrumentation calibration are discussed.

Function approximation using combined unsupervised and supervised learning.

PubMed

Andras, Peter

2014-03-01

Function approximation is one of the core tasks that are solved using neural networks in the context of many engineering problems. However, good approximation results need good sampling of the data space, which usually requires exponentially increasing volume of data as the dimensionality of the data increases. At the same time, often the high-dimensional data is arranged around a much lower dimensional manifold. Here we propose the breaking of the function approximation task for high-dimensional data into two steps: (1) the mapping of the high-dimensional data onto a lower dimensional space corresponding to the manifold on which the data resides and (2) the approximation of the function using the mapped lower dimensional data. We use over-complete self-organizing maps (SOMs) for the mapping through unsupervised learning, and single hidden layer neural networks for the function approximation through supervised learning. We also extend the two-step procedure by considering support vector machines and Bayesian SOMs for the determination of the best parameters for the nonlinear neurons in the hidden layer of the neural networks used for the function approximation. We compare the approximation performance of the proposed neural networks using a set of functions and show that indeed the neural networks using combined unsupervised and supervised learning outperform in most cases the neural networks that learn the function approximation using the original high-dimensional data.

Bayesian Models for Astrophysical Data Using R, JAGS, Python, and Stan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilbe, Joseph M.; de Souza, Rafael S.; Ishida, Emille E. O.

2017-05-01

This comprehensive guide to Bayesian methods in astronomy enables hands-on work by supplying complete R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, to use directly or to adapt. It begins by examining the normal model from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives and then progresses to a full range of Bayesian generalized linear and mixed or hierarchical models, as well as additional types of models such as ABC and INLA. The book provides code that is largely unavailable elsewhere and includes details on interpreting and evaluating Bayesian models. Initial discussions offer models in synthetic form so that readers can easily adapt them to their own data; later the models are applied to real astronomical data. The consistent focus is on hands-on modeling, analysis of data, and interpretations that address scientific questions. A must-have for astronomers, its concrete approach will also be attractive to researchers in the sciences more generally.

Dynamic Bayesian network modeling for longitudinal brain morphometry

PubMed Central

Chen, Rong; Resnick, Susan M; Davatzikos, Christos; Herskovits, Edward H

2011-01-01

Identifying interactions among brain regions from structural magnetic-resonance images presents one of the major challenges in computational neuroanatomy. We propose a Bayesian data-mining approach to the detection of longitudinal morphological changes in the human brain. Our method uses a dynamic Bayesian network to represent evolving inter-regional dependencies. The major advantage of dynamic Bayesian network modeling is that it can represent complicated interactions among temporal processes. We validated our approach by analyzing a simulated atrophy study, and found that this approach requires only a small number of samples to detect the ground-truth temporal model. We further applied dynamic Bayesian network modeling to a longitudinal study of normal aging and mild cognitive impairment — the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. We found that interactions among regional volume-change rates for the mild cognitive impairment group are different from those for the normal-aging group. PMID:21963916

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

Bayesian Inference for Generalized Linear Models for Spiking Neurons

PubMed Central

Gerwinn, Sebastian; Macke, Jakob H.; Bethge, Matthias

2010-01-01

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) are commonly used statistical methods for modelling the relationship between neural population activity and presented stimuli. When the dimension of the parameter space is large, strong regularization has to be used in order to fit GLMs to datasets of realistic size without overfitting. By imposing properly chosen priors over parameters, Bayesian inference provides an effective and principled approach for achieving regularization. Here we show how the posterior distribution over model parameters of GLMs can be approximated by a Gaussian using the Expectation Propagation algorithm. In this way, we obtain an estimate of the posterior mean and posterior covariance, allowing us to calculate Bayesian confidence intervals that characterize the uncertainty about the optimal solution. From the posterior we also obtain a different point estimate, namely the posterior mean as opposed to the commonly used maximum a posteriori estimate. We systematically compare the different inference techniques on simulated as well as on multi-electrode recordings of retinal ganglion cells, and explore the effects of the chosen prior and the performance measure used. We find that good performance can be achieved by choosing an Laplace prior together with the posterior mean estimate. PMID:20577627

Influence of the optimization methods on neural state estimation quality of the drive system with elasticity.

PubMed

Orlowska-Kowalska, Teresa; Kaminski, Marcin

2014-01-01

The paper deals with the implementation of optimized neural networks (NNs) for state variable estimation of the drive system with an elastic joint. The signals estimated by NNs are used in the control structure with a state-space controller and additional feedbacks from the shaft torque and the load speed. High estimation quality is very important for the correct operation of a closed-loop system. The precision of state variables estimation depends on the generalization properties of NNs. A short review of optimization methods of the NN is presented. Two techniques typical for regularization and pruning methods are described and tested in detail: the Bayesian regularization and the Optimal Brain Damage methods. Simulation results show good precision of both optimized neural estimators for a wide range of changes of the load speed and the load torque, not only for nominal but also changed parameters of the drive system. The simulation results are verified in a laboratory setup.

Learning quadratic receptive fields from neural responses to natural stimuli.

PubMed

Rajan, Kanaka; Marre, Olivier; Tkačik, Gašper

2013-07-01

Models of neural responses to stimuli with complex spatiotemporal correlation structure often assume that neurons are selective for only a small number of linear projections of a potentially high-dimensional input. In this review, we explore recent modeling approaches where the neural response depends on the quadratic form of the input rather than on its linear projection, that is, the neuron is sensitive to the local covariance structure of the signal preceding the spike. To infer this quadratic dependence in the presence of arbitrary (e.g., naturalistic) stimulus distribution, we review several inference methods, focusing in particular on two information theory-based approaches (maximization of stimulus energy and of noise entropy) and two likelihood-based approaches (Bayesian spike-triggered covariance and extensions of generalized linear models). We analyze the formal relationship between the likelihood-based and information-based approaches to demonstrate how they lead to consistent inference. We demonstrate the practical feasibility of these procedures by using model neurons responding to a flickering variance stimulus.

Audio Classification in Speech and Music: A Comparison between a Statistical and a Neural Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bugatti, Alessandro; Flammini, Alessandra; Migliorati, Pierangelo

2002-12-01

We focus the attention on the problem of audio classification in speech and music for multimedia applications. In particular, we present a comparison between two different techniques for speech/music discrimination. The first method is based on Zero crossing rate and Bayesian classification. It is very simple from a computational point of view, and gives good results in case of pure music or speech. The simulation results show that some performance degradation arises when the music segment contains also some speech superimposed on music, or strong rhythmic components. To overcome these problems, we propose a second method, that uses more features, and is based on neural networks (specifically a multi-layer Perceptron). In this case we obtain better performance, at the expense of a limited growth in the computational complexity. In practice, the proposed neural network is simple to be implemented if a suitable polynomial is used as the activation function, and a real-time implementation is possible even if low-cost embedded systems are used.

Pruning Neural Networks with Distribution Estimation Algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cantu-Paz, E

2003-01-15

This paper describes the application of four evolutionary algorithms to the pruning of neural networks used in classification problems. Besides of a simple genetic algorithm (GA), the paper considers three distribution estimation algorithms (DEAs): a compact GA, an extended compact GA, and the Bayesian Optimization Algorithm. The objective is to determine if the DEAs present advantages over the simple GA in terms of accuracy or speed in this problem. The experiments used a feed forward neural network trained with standard back propagation and public-domain and artificial data sets. The pruned networks seemed to have better or equal accuracy than themore » original fully-connected networks. Only in a few cases, pruning resulted in less accurate networks. We found few differences in the accuracy of the networks pruned by the four EAs, but found important differences in the execution time. The results suggest that a simple GA with a small population might be the best algorithm for pruning networks on the data sets we tested.« less

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

Bayesian methods for characterizing unknown parameters of material models

DOE PAGES

Emery, J. M.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Field Jr., R. V.

2016-02-04

A Bayesian framework is developed for characterizing the unknown parameters of probabilistic models for material properties. In this framework, the unknown parameters are viewed as random and described by their posterior distributions obtained from prior information and measurements of quantities of interest that are observable and depend on the unknown parameters. The proposed Bayesian method is applied to characterize an unknown spatial correlation of the conductivity field in the definition of a stochastic transport equation and to solve this equation by Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic reduced order models (SROMs). As a result, the Bayesian method is also employed tomore » characterize unknown parameters of material properties for laser welds from measurements of peak forces sustained by these welds.« less

Bayesian methods for characterizing unknown parameters of material models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Emery, J. M.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Field Jr., R. V.

A Bayesian framework is developed for characterizing the unknown parameters of probabilistic models for material properties. In this framework, the unknown parameters are viewed as random and described by their posterior distributions obtained from prior information and measurements of quantities of interest that are observable and depend on the unknown parameters. The proposed Bayesian method is applied to characterize an unknown spatial correlation of the conductivity field in the definition of a stochastic transport equation and to solve this equation by Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic reduced order models (SROMs). As a result, the Bayesian method is also employed tomore » characterize unknown parameters of material properties for laser welds from measurements of peak forces sustained by these welds.« less

Linking normative models of natural tasks to descriptive models of neural response.

PubMed

Jaini, Priyank; Burge, Johannes

2017-10-01

Understanding how nervous systems exploit task-relevant properties of sensory stimuli to perform natural tasks is fundamental to the study of perceptual systems. However, there are few formal methods for determining which stimulus properties are most useful for a given natural task. As a consequence, it is difficult to develop principled models for how to compute task-relevant latent variables from natural signals, and it is difficult to evaluate descriptive models fit to neural response. Accuracy maximization analysis (AMA) is a recently developed Bayesian method for finding the optimal task-specific filters (receptive fields). Here, we introduce AMA-Gauss, a new faster form of AMA that incorporates the assumption that the class-conditional filter responses are Gaussian distributed. Then, we use AMA-Gauss to show that its assumptions are justified for two fundamental visual tasks: retinal speed estimation and binocular disparity estimation. Next, we show that AMA-Gauss has striking formal similarities to popular quadratic models of neural response: the energy model and the generalized quadratic model (GQM). Together, these developments deepen our understanding of why the energy model of neural response have proven useful, improve our ability to evaluate results from subunit model fits to neural data, and should help accelerate psychophysics and neuroscience research with natural stimuli.

Number-Knower Levels in Young Children: Insights from Bayesian Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Michael D.; Sarnecka, Barbara W.

2011-01-01

Lee and Sarnecka (2010) developed a Bayesian model of young children's behavior on the Give-N test of number knowledge. This paper presents two new extensions of the model, and applies the model to new data. In the first extension, the model is used to evaluate competing theories about the conceptual knowledge underlying children's behavior. One,…

Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

Treesearch

B.G. Marcot; J.D. Steventon; G.D. Sutherland; R.K. McCann

2006-01-01

We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model...

Slicing cluster mass functions with a Bayesian razor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sealfon, C. D.

2010-08-01

We apply a Bayesian ``razor" to forecast Bayes factors between different parameterizations of the galaxy cluster mass function. To demonstrate this approach, we calculate the minimum size N-body simulation needed for strong evidence favoring a two-parameter mass function over one-parameter mass functions and visa versa, as a function of the minimum cluster mass.

Emphasis on Emotions in Student Learning: Analyzing Relationships between Overexcitabilities and the Learning Approach Using Bayesian MIMIC Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Bondt, Niki; Van Petegem, Peter

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to investigate interrelationships between overexcitability and learning patterns from the perspective of personality development according to Dabrowski's theory of positive disintegration. To this end, Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) is applied which allows for the simultaneous inclusion in the measurement…

SOMBI: Bayesian identification of parameter relations in unstructured cosmological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Philipp; Jasche, Jens; Enßlin, Torsten A.

2016-11-01

This work describes the implementation and application of a correlation determination method based on self organizing maps and Bayesian inference (SOMBI). SOMBI aims to automatically identify relations between different observed parameters in unstructured cosmological or astrophysical surveys by automatically identifying data clusters in high-dimensional datasets via the self organizing map neural network algorithm. Parameter relations are then revealed by means of a Bayesian inference within respective identified data clusters. Specifically such relations are assumed to be parametrized as a polynomial of unknown order. The Bayesian approach results in a posterior probability distribution function for respective polynomial coefficients. To decide which polynomial order suffices to describe correlation structures in data, we include a method for model selection, the Bayesian information criterion, to the analysis. The performance of the SOMBI algorithm is tested with mock data. As illustration we also provide applications of our method to cosmological data. In particular, we present results of a correlation analysis between galaxy and active galactic nucleus (AGN) properties provided by the SDSS catalog with the cosmic large-scale-structure (LSS). The results indicate that the combined galaxy and LSS dataset indeed is clustered into several sub-samples of data with different average properties (for example different stellar masses or web-type classifications). The majority of data clusters appear to have a similar correlation structure between galaxy properties and the LSS. In particular we revealed a positive and linear dependency between the stellar mass, the absolute magnitude and the color of a galaxy with the corresponding cosmic density field. A remaining subset of data shows inverted correlations, which might be an artifact of non-linear redshift distortions.

Generative models for discovering sparse distributed representations.

PubMed Central

Hinton, G E; Ghahramani, Z

1997-01-01

We describe a hierarchical, generative model that can be viewed as a nonlinear generalization of factor analysis and can be implemented in a neural network. The model uses bottom-up, top-down and lateral connections to perform Bayesian perceptual inference correctly. Once perceptual inference has been performed the connection strengths can be updated using a very simple learning rule that only requires locally available information. We demonstrate that the network learns to extract sparse, distributed, hierarchical representations. PMID:9304685

Applying dynamic Bayesian networks to perturbed gene expression data.

PubMed

Dojer, Norbert; Gambin, Anna; Mizera, Andrzej; Wilczyński, Bartek; Tiuryn, Jerzy

2006-05-08

A central goal of molecular biology is to understand the regulatory mechanisms of gene transcription and protein synthesis. Because of their solid basis in statistics, allowing to deal with the stochastic aspects of gene expressions and noisy measurements in a natural way, Bayesian networks appear attractive in the field of inferring gene interactions structure from microarray experiments data. However, the basic formalism has some disadvantages, e.g. it is sometimes hard to distinguish between the origin and the target of an interaction. Two kinds of microarray experiments yield data particularly rich in information regarding the direction of interactions: time series and perturbation experiments. In order to correctly handle them, the basic formalism must be modified. For example, dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) apply to time series microarray data. To our knowledge the DBN technique has not been applied in the context of perturbation experiments. We extend the framework of dynamic Bayesian networks in order to incorporate perturbations. Moreover, an exact algorithm for inferring an optimal network is proposed and a discretization method specialized for time series data from perturbation experiments is introduced. We apply our procedure to realistic simulations data. The results are compared with those obtained by standard DBN learning techniques. Moreover, the advantages of using exact learning algorithm instead of heuristic methods are analyzed. We show that the quality of inferred networks dramatically improves when using data from perturbation experiments. We also conclude that the exact algorithm should be used when it is possible, i.e. when considered set of genes is small enough.

A Pragmatic Bayesian Perspective on Correlation Analysis. The exoplanetary gravity - stellar activity case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueira, P.; Faria, J. P.; Adibekyan, V. Zh.; Oshagh, M.; Santos, N. C.

2016-11-01

We apply the Bayesian framework to assess the presence of a correlation between two quantities. To do so, we estimate the probability distribution of the parameter of interest, ρ, characterizing the strength of the correlation. We provide an implementation of these ideas and concepts using python programming language and the pyMC module in a very short (˜ 130 lines of code, heavily commented) and user-friendly program. We used this tool to assess the presence and properties of the correlation between planetary surface gravity and stellar activity level as measured by the log(R^' }_{ {HK}}) indicator. The results of the Bayesian analysis are qualitatively similar to those obtained via p-value analysis, and support the presence of a correlation in the data. The results are more robust in their derivation and more informative, revealing interesting features such as asymmetric posterior distributions or markedly different credible intervals, and allowing for a deeper exploration. We encourage the reader interested in this kind of problem to apply our code to his/her own scientific problems. The full understanding of what the Bayesian framework is can only be gained through the insight that comes by handling priors, assessing the convergence of Monte Carlo runs, and a multitude of other practical problems. We hope to contribute so that Bayesian analysis becomes a tool in the toolkit of researchers, and they understand by experience its advantages and limitations.

Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections

PubMed Central

Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

2015-01-01

Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259

Bayesian models based on test statistics for multiple hypothesis testing problems.

PubMed

Ji, Yuan; Lu, Yiling; Mills, Gordon B

2008-04-01

We propose a Bayesian method for the problem of multiple hypothesis testing that is routinely encountered in bioinformatics research, such as the differential gene expression analysis. Our algorithm is based on modeling the distributions of test statistics under both null and alternative hypotheses. We substantially reduce the complexity of the process of defining posterior model probabilities by modeling the test statistics directly instead of modeling the full data. Computationally, we apply a Bayesian FDR approach to control the number of rejections of null hypotheses. To check if our model assumptions for the test statistics are valid for various bioinformatics experiments, we also propose a simple graphical model-assessment tool. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate the performance of our models and the utility of the model-assessment tool. In the end, we apply the proposed methodology to an siRNA screening and a gene expression experiment.

The NIFTy way of Bayesian signal inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selig, Marco

2014-12-01

We introduce NIFTy, "Numerical Information Field Theory", a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTy can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTy as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D3PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

PubMed

Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

2015-01-01

Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

Bayesian Model Averaging of Artificial Intelligence Models for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadiri, A.; Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

2012-12-01

This research presents a Bayesian artificial intelligence model averaging (BAIMA) method that incorporates multiple artificial intelligence (AI) models to estimate hydraulic conductivity and evaluate estimation uncertainties. Uncertainty in the AI model outputs stems from error in model input as well as non-uniqueness in selecting different AI methods. Using one single AI model tends to bias the estimation and underestimate uncertainty. BAIMA employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to address the issue of using one single AI model for estimation. BAIMA estimates hydraulic conductivity by averaging the outputs of AI models according to their model weights. In this study, the model weights were determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) that follows the parsimony principle. BAIMA calculates the within-model variances to account for uncertainty propagation from input data to AI model output. Between-model variances are evaluated to account for uncertainty due to model non-uniqueness. We employed Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic (TS-FL), artificial neural network (ANN) and neurofuzzy (NF) to estimate hydraulic conductivity for the Tasuj plain aquifer, Iran. BAIMA combined three AI models and produced better fitting than individual models. While NF was expected to be the best AI model owing to its utilization of both TS-FL and ANN models, the NF model is nearly discarded by the parsimony principle. The TS-FL model and the ANN model showed equal importance although their hydraulic conductivity estimates were quite different. This resulted in significant between-model variances that are normally ignored by using one AI model.

Time Series Decomposition into Oscillation Components and Phase Estimation.

PubMed

Matsuda, Takeru; Komaki, Fumiyasu

2017-02-01

Many time series are naturally considered as a superposition of several oscillation components. For example, electroencephalogram (EEG) time series include oscillation components such as alpha, beta, and gamma. We propose a method for decomposing time series into such oscillation components using state-space models. Based on the concept of random frequency modulation, gaussian linear state-space models for oscillation components are developed. In this model, the frequency of an oscillator fluctuates by noise. Time series decomposition is accomplished by this model like the Bayesian seasonal adjustment method. Since the model parameters are estimated from data by the empirical Bayes' method, the amplitudes and the frequencies of oscillation components are determined in a data-driven manner. Also, the appropriate number of oscillation components is determined with the Akaike information criterion (AIC). In this way, the proposed method provides a natural decomposition of the given time series into oscillation components. In neuroscience, the phase of neural time series plays an important role in neural information processing. The proposed method can be used to estimate the phase of each oscillation component and has several advantages over a conventional method based on the Hilbert transform. Thus, the proposed method enables an investigation of the phase dynamics of time series. Numerical results show that the proposed method succeeds in extracting intermittent oscillations like ripples and detecting the phase reset phenomena. We apply the proposed method to real data from various fields such as astronomy, ecology, tidology, and neuroscience.

Bayesian performance metrics and small system integration in recent homeland security and defense applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jannson, Tomasz; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Patton, Edward; Pradhan, Ranjit; Shih, Min-Yi; Walter, Kevin; Savant, Gajendra; Shie, Rick; Forrester, Thomas

2010-04-01

In this paper, Bayesian inference is applied to performance metrics definition of the important class of recent Homeland Security and defense systems called binary sensors, including both (internal) system performance and (external) CONOPS. The medical analogy is used to define the PPV (Positive Predictive Value), the basic Bayesian metrics parameter of the binary sensors. Also, Small System Integration (SSI) is discussed in the context of recent Homeland Security and defense applications, emphasizing a highly multi-technological approach, within the broad range of clusters ("nexus") of electronics, optics, X-ray physics, γ-ray physics, and other disciplines.

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis

2010-01-01

When facing a conjunction between space objects, decision makers must chose whether to maneuver for collision avoidance or not. We apply a well-known decision procedure, the sequential probability ratio test, to this problem. We propose two approaches to the problem solution, one based on a frequentist method, and the other on a Bayesian method. The frequentist method does not require any prior knowledge concerning the conjunction, while the Bayesian method assumes knowledge of prior probability densities. Our results show that both methods achieve desired missed detection rates, but the frequentist method's false alarm performance is inferior to the Bayesian method's

Quantum state estimation when qubits are lost: a no-data-left-behind approach

DOE PAGES

Williams, Brian P.; Lougovski, Pavel

2017-04-06

We present an approach to Bayesian mean estimation of quantum states using hyperspherical parametrization and an experiment-specific likelihood which allows utilization of all available data, even when qubits are lost. With this method, we report the first closed-form Bayesian mean and maximum likelihood estimates for the ideal single qubit. Due to computational constraints, we utilize numerical sampling to determine the Bayesian mean estimate for a photonic two-qubit experiment in which our novel analysis reduces burdens associated with experimental asymmetries and inefficiencies. This method can be applied to quantum states of any dimension and experimental complexity.

Bayesian conditional-independence modeling of the AIDS epidemic in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilks, Walter R.; De Angelis, Daniela; Day, Nicholas E.

We describe the use of conditional-independence modeling, Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo, to model and project the HIV-AIDS epidemic in homosexual/bisexual males in England and Wales. Complexity in this analysis arises through selectively missing data, indirectly observed underlying processes, and measurement error. Our emphasis is on presentation and discussion of the concepts, not on the technicalities of this analysis, which can be found elsewhere [D. De Angelis, W.R. Gilks, N.E. Day, Bayesian projection of the the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic (with discussion), Applied Statistics, in press].

Estimation for coefficient of variation of an extension of the exponential distribution under type-II censoring scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakoban, Rana A.

2017-08-01

The coefficient of variation [CV] has several applications in applied statistics. So in this paper, we adopt Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches for the estimation of CV under type-II censored data from extension exponential distribution [EED]. The point and interval estimate of the CV are obtained for each of the maximum likelihood and parametric bootstrap techniques. Also the Bayesian approach with the help of MCMC method is presented. A real data set is presented and analyzed, hence the obtained results are used to assess the obtained theoretical results.

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring

Treesearch

Carlos Carroll; Devin S. Johnson; Jeffrey R. Dunk; William J. Zielinski

2010-01-01

Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data’s spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and...

Inferring metabolic networks using the Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso with informative priors.

PubMed

Peterson, Christine; Vannucci, Marina; Karakas, Cemal; Choi, William; Ma, Lihua; Maletić-Savatić, Mirjana

2013-10-01

Metabolic processes are essential for cellular function and survival. We are interested in inferring a metabolic network in activated microglia, a major neuroimmune cell in the brain responsible for the neuroinflammation associated with neurological diseases, based on a set of quantified metabolites. To achieve this, we apply the Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso with informative priors that incorporate known relationships between covariates. To encourage sparsity, the Bayesian graphical lasso places double exponential priors on the off-diagonal entries of the precision matrix. The Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso allows each double exponential prior to have a unique shrinkage parameter. These shrinkage parameters share a common gamma hyperprior. We extend this model to create an informative prior structure by formulating tailored hyperpriors on the shrinkage parameters. By choosing parameter values for each hyperprior that shift probability mass toward zero for nodes that are close together in a reference network, we encourage edges between covariates with known relationships. This approach can improve the reliability of network inference when the sample size is small relative to the number of parameters to be estimated. When applied to the data on activated microglia, the inferred network includes both known relationships and associations of potential interest for further investigation.

Inferring metabolic networks using the Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso with informative priors

PubMed Central

PETERSON, CHRISTINE; VANNUCCI, MARINA; KARAKAS, CEMAL; CHOI, WILLIAM; MA, LIHUA; MALETIĆ-SAVATIĆ, MIRJANA

2014-01-01

Metabolic processes are essential for cellular function and survival. We are interested in inferring a metabolic network in activated microglia, a major neuroimmune cell in the brain responsible for the neuroinflammation associated with neurological diseases, based on a set of quantified metabolites. To achieve this, we apply the Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso with informative priors that incorporate known relationships between covariates. To encourage sparsity, the Bayesian graphical lasso places double exponential priors on the off-diagonal entries of the precision matrix. The Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso allows each double exponential prior to have a unique shrinkage parameter. These shrinkage parameters share a common gamma hyperprior. We extend this model to create an informative prior structure by formulating tailored hyperpriors on the shrinkage parameters. By choosing parameter values for each hyperprior that shift probability mass toward zero for nodes that are close together in a reference network, we encourage edges between covariates with known relationships. This approach can improve the reliability of network inference when the sample size is small relative to the number of parameters to be estimated. When applied to the data on activated microglia, the inferred network includes both known relationships and associations of potential interest for further investigation. PMID:24533172

Population forecasts for Bangladesh, using a Bayesian methodology.

PubMed

Mahsin, Md; Hossain, Syed Shahadat

2012-12-01

Population projection for many developing countries could be quite a challenging task for the demographers mostly due to lack of availability of enough reliable data. The objective of this paper is to present an overview of the existing methods for population forecasting and to propose an alternative based on the Bayesian statistics, combining the formality of inference. The analysis has been made using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for Bayesian methodology available with the software WinBUGS. Convergence diagnostic techniques available with the WinBUGS software have been applied to ensure the convergence of the chains necessary for the implementation of MCMC. The Bayesian approach allows for the use of observed data and expert judgements by means of appropriate priors, and a more realistic population forecasts, along with associated uncertainty, has been possible.

CMOL/CMOS hardware architectures and performance/price for Bayesian memory - The building block of intelligent systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaveri, Mazad Shaheriar

The semiconductor/computer industry has been following Moore's law for several decades and has reaped the benefits in speed and density of the resultant scaling. Transistor density has reached almost one billion per chip, and transistor delays are in picoseconds. However, scaling has slowed down, and the semiconductor industry is now facing several challenges. Hybrid CMOS/nano technologies, such as CMOL, are considered as an interim solution to some of the challenges. Another potential architectural solution includes specialized architectures for applications/models in the intelligent computing domain, one aspect of which includes abstract computational models inspired from the neuro/cognitive sciences. Consequently in this dissertation, we focus on the hardware implementations of Bayesian Memory (BM), which is a (Bayesian) Biologically Inspired Computational Model (BICM). This model is a simplified version of George and Hawkins' model of the visual cortex, which includes an inference framework based on Judea Pearl's belief propagation. We then present a "hardware design space exploration" methodology for implementing and analyzing the (digital and mixed-signal) hardware for the BM. This particular methodology involves: analyzing the computational/operational cost and the related micro-architecture, exploring candidate hardware components, proposing various custom hardware architectures using both traditional CMOS and hybrid nanotechnology - CMOL, and investigating the baseline performance/price of these architectures. The results suggest that CMOL is a promising candidate for implementing a BM. Such implementations can utilize the very high density storage/computation benefits of these new nano-scale technologies much more efficiently; for example, the throughput per 858 mm2 (TPM) obtained for CMOL based architectures is 32 to 40 times better than the TPM for a CMOS based multiprocessor/multi-FPGA system, and almost 2000 times better than the TPM for a PC implementation. We later use this methodology to investigate the hardware implementations of cortex-scale spiking neural system, which is an approximate neural equivalent of BICM based cortex-scale system. The results of this investigation also suggest that CMOL is a promising candidate to implement such large-scale neuromorphic systems. In general, the assessment of such hypothetical baseline hardware architectures provides the prospects for building large-scale (mammalian cortex-scale) implementations of neuromorphic/Bayesian/intelligent systems using state-of-the-art and beyond state-of-the-art silicon structures.

Predicting motor vehicle collisions using Bayesian neural network models: an empirical analysis.

PubMed

Xie, Yuanchang; Lord, Dominique; Zhang, Yunlong

2007-09-01

Statistical models have frequently been used in highway safety studies. They can be utilized for various purposes, including establishing relationships between variables, screening covariates and predicting values. Generalized linear models (GLM) and hierarchical Bayes models (HBM) have been the most common types of model favored by transportation safety analysts. Over the last few years, researchers have proposed the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model for modeling the phenomenon under study. Compared to GLMs and HBMs, BPNNs have received much less attention in highway safety modeling. The reasons are attributed to the complexity for estimating this kind of model as well as the problem related to "over-fitting" the data. To circumvent the latter problem, some statisticians have proposed the use of Bayesian neural network (BNN) models. These models have been shown to perform better than BPNN models while at the same time reducing the difficulty associated with over-fitting the data. The objective of this study is to evaluate the application of BNN models for predicting motor vehicle crashes. To accomplish this objective, a series of models was estimated using data collected on rural frontage roads in Texas. Three types of models were compared: BPNN, BNN and the negative binomial (NB) regression models. The results of this study show that in general both types of neural network models perform better than the NB regression model in terms of data prediction. Although the BPNN model can occasionally provide better or approximately equivalent prediction performance compared to the BNN model, in most cases its prediction performance is worse than the BNN model. In addition, the data fitting performance of the BPNN model is consistently worse than the BNN model, which suggests that the BNN model has better generalization abilities than the BPNN model and can effectively alleviate the over-fitting problem without significantly compromising the nonlinear approximation ability. The results also show that BNNs could be used for other useful analyses in highway safety, including the development of accident modification factors and for improving the prediction capabilities for evaluating different highway design alternatives.

Hybrid Cubature Kalman filtering for identifying nonlinear models from sampled recording: Estimation of neuronal dynamics.

PubMed

Madi, Mahmoud K; Karameh, Fadi N

2017-01-01

Kalman filtering methods have long been regarded as efficient adaptive Bayesian techniques for estimating hidden states in models of linear dynamical systems under Gaussian uncertainty. Recent advents of the Cubature Kalman filter (CKF) have extended this efficient estimation property to nonlinear systems, and also to hybrid nonlinear problems where by the processes are continuous and the observations are discrete (continuous-discrete CD-CKF). Employing CKF techniques, therefore, carries high promise for modeling many biological phenomena where the underlying processes exhibit inherently nonlinear, continuous, and noisy dynamics and the associated measurements are uncertain and time-sampled. This paper investigates the performance of cubature filtering (CKF and CD-CKF) in two flagship problems arising in the field of neuroscience upon relating brain functionality to aggregate neurophysiological recordings: (i) estimation of the firing dynamics and the neural circuit model parameters from electric potentials (EP) observations, and (ii) estimation of the hemodynamic model parameters and the underlying neural drive from BOLD (fMRI) signals. First, in simulated neural circuit models, estimation accuracy was investigated under varying levels of observation noise (SNR), process noise structures, and observation sampling intervals (dt). When compared to the CKF, the CD-CKF consistently exhibited better accuracy for a given SNR, sharp accuracy increase with higher SNR, and persistent error reduction with smaller dt. Remarkably, CD-CKF accuracy shows only a mild deterioration for non-Gaussian process noise, specifically with Poisson noise, a commonly assumed form of background fluctuations in neuronal systems. Second, in simulated hemodynamic models, parametric estimates were consistently improved under CD-CKF. Critically, time-localization of the underlying neural drive, a determinant factor in fMRI-based functional connectivity studies, was significantly more accurate under CD-CKF. In conclusion, and with the CKF recently benchmarked against other advanced Bayesian techniques, the CD-CKF framework could provide significant gains in robustness and accuracy when estimating a variety of biological phenomena models where the underlying process dynamics unfold at time scales faster than those seen in collected measurements.

Hybrid Cubature Kalman filtering for identifying nonlinear models from sampled recording: Estimation of neuronal dynamics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Kalman filtering methods have long been regarded as efficient adaptive Bayesian techniques for estimating hidden states in models of linear dynamical systems under Gaussian uncertainty. Recent advents of the Cubature Kalman filter (CKF) have extended this efficient estimation property to nonlinear systems, and also to hybrid nonlinear problems where by the processes are continuous and the observations are discrete (continuous-discrete CD-CKF). Employing CKF techniques, therefore, carries high promise for modeling many biological phenomena where the underlying processes exhibit inherently nonlinear, continuous, and noisy dynamics and the associated measurements are uncertain and time-sampled. This paper investigates the performance of cubature filtering (CKF and CD-CKF) in two flagship problems arising in the field of neuroscience upon relating brain functionality to aggregate neurophysiological recordings: (i) estimation of the firing dynamics and the neural circuit model parameters from electric potentials (EP) observations, and (ii) estimation of the hemodynamic model parameters and the underlying neural drive from BOLD (fMRI) signals. First, in simulated neural circuit models, estimation accuracy was investigated under varying levels of observation noise (SNR), process noise structures, and observation sampling intervals (dt). When compared to the CKF, the CD-CKF consistently exhibited better accuracy for a given SNR, sharp accuracy increase with higher SNR, and persistent error reduction with smaller dt. Remarkably, CD-CKF accuracy shows only a mild deterioration for non-Gaussian process noise, specifically with Poisson noise, a commonly assumed form of background fluctuations in neuronal systems. Second, in simulated hemodynamic models, parametric estimates were consistently improved under CD-CKF. Critically, time-localization of the underlying neural drive, a determinant factor in fMRI-based functional connectivity studies, was significantly more accurate under CD-CKF. In conclusion, and with the CKF recently benchmarked against other advanced Bayesian techniques, the CD-CKF framework could provide significant gains in robustness and accuracy when estimating a variety of biological phenomena models where the underlying process dynamics unfold at time scales faster than those seen in collected measurements. PMID:28727850

Performance Monitoring and Assessment of Neuro-Adaptive Controllers for Aerospace Applications Using a Bayesian Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Pramod; Guenther, Kurt; Hodgkinson, John; Jacklin, Stephen; Richard, Michael; Schumann, Johann; Soares, Fola

2005-01-01

Modern exploration missions require modern control systems-control systems that can handle catastrophic changes in the system's behavior, compensate for slow deterioration in sustained operations, and support fast system ID. Adaptive controllers, based upon Neural Networks have these capabilities, but they can only be used safely if proper verification & validation (V&V) can be done. In this paper we present our V & V approach and simulation result within NASA's Intelligent Flight Control Systems (IFCS).

Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

PubMed

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2016-08-01

Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

ChemStable: a web server for rule-embedded naïve Bayesian learning approach to predict compound stability.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihong; Zheng, Minghao; Yan, Xin; Gu, Qiong; Gasteiger, Johann; Tijhuis, Johan; Maas, Peter; Li, Jiabo; Xu, Jun

2014-09-01

Predicting compound chemical stability is important because unstable compounds can lead to either false positive or to false negative conclusions in bioassays. Experimental data (COMDECOM) measured from DMSO/H2O solutions stored at 50 °C for 105 days were used to predicted stability by applying rule-embedded naïve Bayesian learning, based upon atom center fragment (ACF) features. To build the naïve Bayesian classifier, we derived ACF features from 9,746 compounds in the COMDECOM dataset. By recursively applying naïve Bayesian learning from the data set, each ACF is assigned with an expected stable probability (p(s)) and an unstable probability (p(uns)). 13,340 ACFs, together with their p(s) and p(uns) data, were stored in a knowledge base for use by the Bayesian classifier. For a given compound, its ACFs were derived from its structure connection table with the same protocol used to drive ACFs from the training data. Then, the Bayesian classifier assigned p(s) and p(uns) values to the compound ACFs by a structural pattern recognition algorithm, which was implemented in-house. Compound instability is calculated, with Bayes' theorem, based upon the p(s) and p(uns) values of the compound ACFs. We were able to achieve performance with an AUC value of 84% and a tenfold cross validation accuracy of 76.5%. To reduce false negatives, a rule-based approach has been embedded in the classifier. The rule-based module allows the program to improve its predictivity by expanding its compound instability knowledge base, thus further reducing the possibility of false negatives. To our knowledge, this is the first in silico prediction service for the prediction of the stabilities of organic compounds.

Individual differences in social information gathering revealed through Bayesian hierarchical models

PubMed Central

Pearson, John M.; Watson, Karli K.; Klein, Jeffrey T.; Ebitz, R. Becket; Platt, Michael L.

2013-01-01

As studies of the neural circuits underlying choice expand to include more complicated behaviors, analysis of behaviors elicited in laboratory paradigms has grown increasingly difficult. Social behaviors present a particular challenge, since inter- and intra-individual variation are expected to play key roles. However, due to limitations on data collection, studies must often choose between pooling data across all subjects or using individual subjects' data in isolation. Hierarchical models mediate between these two extremes by modeling individual subjects as drawn from a population distribution, allowing the population at large to serve as prior information about individuals' behavior. Here, we apply this method to data collected across multiple experimental sessions from a set of rhesus macaques performing a social information valuation task. We show that, while the values of social images vary markedly between individuals and between experimental sessions for the same individual, individuals also differentially value particular categories of social images. Furthermore, we demonstrate covariance between values for image categories within individuals and find evidence suggesting that magnitudes of stimulus values tend to diminish over time. PMID:24062635

Gaussian processes: a method for automatic QSAR modeling of ADME properties.

PubMed

Obrezanova, Olga; Csanyi, Gabor; Gola, Joelle M R; Segall, Matthew D

2007-01-01

In this article, we discuss the application of the Gaussian Process method for the prediction of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) properties. On the basis of a Bayesian probabilistic approach, the method is widely used in the field of machine learning but has rarely been applied in quantitative structure-activity relationship and ADME modeling. The method is suitable for modeling nonlinear relationships, does not require subjective determination of the model parameters, works for a large number of descriptors, and is inherently resistant to overtraining. The performance of Gaussian Processes compares well with and often exceeds that of artificial neural networks. Due to these features, the Gaussian Processes technique is eminently suitable for automatic model generation-one of the demands of modern drug discovery. Here, we describe the basic concept of the method in the context of regression problems and illustrate its application to the modeling of several ADME properties: blood-brain barrier, hERG inhibition, and aqueous solubility at pH 7.4. We also compare Gaussian Processes with other modeling techniques.

A Double Dissociation between Anterior and Posterior Superior Temporal Gyrus for Processing Audiovisual Speech Demonstrated by Electrocorticography.

PubMed

Ozker, Muge; Schepers, Inga M; Magnotti, John F; Yoshor, Daniel; Beauchamp, Michael S

2017-06-01

Human speech can be comprehended using only auditory information from the talker's voice. However, comprehension is improved if the talker's face is visible, especially if the auditory information is degraded as occurs in noisy environments or with hearing loss. We explored the neural substrates of audiovisual speech perception using electrocorticography, direct recording of neural activity using electrodes implanted on the cortical surface. We observed a double dissociation in the responses to audiovisual speech with clear and noisy auditory component within the superior temporal gyrus (STG), a region long known to be important for speech perception. Anterior STG showed greater neural activity to audiovisual speech with clear auditory component, whereas posterior STG showed similar or greater neural activity to audiovisual speech in which the speech was replaced with speech-like noise. A distinct border between the two response patterns was observed, demarcated by a landmark corresponding to the posterior margin of Heschl's gyrus. To further investigate the computational roles of both regions, we considered Bayesian models of multisensory integration, which predict that combining the independent sources of information available from different modalities should reduce variability in the neural responses. We tested this prediction by measuring the variability of the neural responses to single audiovisual words. Posterior STG showed smaller variability than anterior STG during presentation of audiovisual speech with noisy auditory component. Taken together, these results suggest that posterior STG but not anterior STG is important for multisensory integration of noisy auditory and visual speech.

Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

PubMed

Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

2017-11-14

The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

Bayesian inference of a historical bottleneck in a heavily exploited marine mammal.

PubMed

Hoffman, J I; Grant, S M; Forcada, J; Phillips, C D

2011-10-01

Emerging Bayesian analytical approaches offer increasingly sophisticated means of reconstructing historical population dynamics from genetic data, but have been little applied to scenarios involving demographic bottlenecks. Consequently, we analysed a large mitochondrial and microsatellite dataset from the Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus gazella, a species subjected to one of the most extreme examples of uncontrolled exploitation in history when it was reduced to the brink of extinction by the sealing industry during the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Classical bottleneck tests, which exploit the fact that rare alleles are rapidly lost during demographic reduction, yielded ambiguous results. In contrast, a strong signal of recent demographic decline was detected using both Bayesian skyline plots and Approximate Bayesian Computation, the latter also allowing derivation of posterior parameter estimates that were remarkably consistent with historical observations. This was achieved using only contemporary samples, further emphasizing the potential of Bayesian approaches to address important problems in conservation and evolutionary biology. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Bayesian techniques for analyzing group differences in the Iowa Gambling Task: A case study of intuitive and deliberate decision-makers.

PubMed

Steingroever, Helen; Pachur, Thorsten; Šmíra, Martin; Lee, Michael D

2018-06-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is one of the most popular experimental paradigms for comparing complex decision-making across groups. Most commonly, IGT behavior is analyzed using frequentist tests to compare performance across groups, and to compare inferred parameters of cognitive models developed for the IGT. Here, we present a Bayesian alternative based on Bayesian repeated-measures ANOVA for comparing performance, and a suite of three complementary model-based methods for assessing the cognitive processes underlying IGT performance. The three model-based methods involve Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation, Bayes factor model comparison, and Bayesian latent-mixture modeling. We illustrate these Bayesian methods by applying them to test the extent to which differences in intuitive versus deliberate decision style are associated with differences in IGT performance. The results show that intuitive and deliberate decision-makers behave similarly on the IGT, and the modeling analyses consistently suggest that both groups of decision-makers rely on similar cognitive processes. Our results challenge the notion that individual differences in intuitive and deliberate decision styles have a broad impact on decision-making. They also highlight the advantages of Bayesian methods, especially their ability to quantify evidence in favor of the null hypothesis, and that they allow model-based analyses to incorporate hierarchical and latent-mixture structures.

Invited commentary: Lost in estimation--searching for alternatives to markov chains to fit complex Bayesian models.

PubMed

Molitor, John

2012-03-01

Bayesian methods have seen an increase in popularity in a wide variety of scientific fields, including epidemiology. One of the main reasons for their widespread application is the power of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques generally used to fit these models. As a result, researchers often implicitly associate Bayesian models with MCMC estimation procedures. However, Bayesian models do not always require Markov-chain-based methods for parameter estimation. This is important, as MCMC estimation methods, while generally quite powerful, are complex and computationally expensive and suffer from convergence problems related to the manner in which they generate correlated samples used to estimate probability distributions for parameters of interest. In this issue of the Journal, Cole et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2012;175(5):368-375) present an interesting paper that discusses non-Markov-chain-based approaches to fitting Bayesian models. These methods, though limited, can overcome some of the problems associated with MCMC techniques and promise to provide simpler approaches to fitting Bayesian models. Applied researchers will find these estimation approaches intuitively appealing and will gain a deeper understanding of Bayesian models through their use. However, readers should be aware that other non-Markov-chain-based methods are currently in active development and have been widely published in other fields.

Impact of Bias-Correction Type and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging over the Northeast United States

Treesearch

Michael J. Erickson; Brian A. Colle; Joseph J. Charney

2012-01-01

The performance of a multimodel ensemble over the northeast United States is evaluated before and after applying bias correction and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The 13-member Stony Brook University (SBU) ensemble at 0000 UTC is combined with the 21-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at 2100 UTC....

Understanding the Uncertainty of an Effectiveness-Cost Ratio in Educational Resource Allocation: A Bayesian Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pan, Yilin

2016-01-01

Given the necessity to bridge the gap between what happened and what is likely to happen, this paper aims to explore how to apply Bayesian inference to cost-effectiveness analysis so as to capture the uncertainty of a ratio-type efficiency measure. The first part of the paper summarizes the characteristics of the evaluation data that are commonly…

Assimilating multi-source uncertainties of a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

Treesearch

Wei Wu; James Clark; James Vose

2010-01-01

Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) modeling allows for multiple sources of uncertainty by factoring complex relationships into conditional distributions that can be used to draw inference and make predictions. We applied an HB model to estimate the parameters and state variables of a parsimonious hydrological model – GR4J – by coherently assimilating the uncertainties from the...

Nowcasting Cloud Fields for U.S. Air Force Special Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

application of Bayes’ Rule offers many advantages over Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and other commonly used statistical post-processing methods...reflectance and probability of cloud. A statistical post-processing technique is applied using Bayesian estimation to train the system from a set of past...nowcasting, low cloud forecasting, cloud reflectance, ISR, Bayesian estimation, statistical post-processing, machine learning 15. NUMBER OF PAGES

Classification of postural profiles among mouth-breathing children by learning vector quantization.

PubMed

Mancini, F; Sousa, F S; Hummel, A D; Falcão, A E J; Yi, L C; Ortolani, C F; Sigulem, D; Pisa, I T

2011-01-01

Mouth breathing is a chronic syndrome that may bring about postural changes. Finding characteristic patterns of changes occurring in the complex musculoskeletal system of mouth-breathing children has been a challenge. Learning vector quantization (LVQ) is an artificial neural network model that can be applied for this purpose. The aim of the present study was to apply LVQ to determine the characteristic postural profiles shown by mouth-breathing children, in order to further understand abnormal posture among mouth breathers. Postural training data on 52 children (30 mouth breathers and 22 nose breathers) and postural validation data on 32 children (22 mouth breathers and 10 nose breathers) were used. The performance of LVQ and other classification models was compared in relation to self-organizing maps, back-propagation applied to multilayer perceptrons, Bayesian networks, naive Bayes, J48 decision trees, k, and k-nearest-neighbor classifiers. Classifier accuracy was assessed by means of leave-one-out cross-validation, area under ROC curve (AUC), and inter-rater agreement (Kappa statistics). By using the LVQ model, five postural profiles for mouth-breathing children could be determined. LVQ showed satisfactory results for mouth-breathing and nose-breathing classification: sensitivity and specificity rates of 0.90 and 0.95, respectively, when using the training dataset, and 0.95 and 0.90, respectively, when using the validation dataset. The five postural profiles for mouth-breathing children suggested by LVQ were incorporated into application software for classifying the severity of mouth breathers' abnormal posture.

Machine-learning in astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobson, Michael; Graff, Philip; Feroz, Farhan; Lasenby, Anthony

2014-05-01

Machine-learning methods may be used to perform many tasks required in the analysis of astronomical data, including: data description and interpretation, pattern recognition, prediction, classification, compression, inference and many more. An intuitive and well-established approach to machine learning is the use of artificial neural networks (NNs), which consist of a group of interconnected nodes, each of which processes information that it receives and then passes this product on to other nodes via weighted connections. In particular, I discuss the first public release of the generic neural network training algorithm, called SkyNet, and demonstrate its application to astronomical problems focusing on its use in the BAMBI package for accelerated Bayesian inference in cosmology, and the identification of gamma-ray bursters. The SkyNet and BAMBI packages, which are fully parallelised using MPI, are available at http://www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/software/.

Estimating neural response functions from fMRI

PubMed Central

Kumar, Sukhbinder; Penny, William

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology for estimating Neural Response Functions (NRFs) from fMRI data. These NRFs describe non-linear relationships between experimental stimuli and neuronal population responses. The method is based on a two-stage model comprising an NRF and a Hemodynamic Response Function (HRF) that are simultaneously fitted to fMRI data using a Bayesian optimization algorithm. This algorithm also produces a model evidence score, providing a formal model comparison method for evaluating alternative NRFs. The HRF is characterized using previously established “Balloon” and BOLD signal models. We illustrate the method with two example applications based on fMRI studies of the auditory system. In the first, we estimate the time constants of repetition suppression and facilitation, and in the second we estimate the parameters of population receptive fields in a tonotopic mapping study. PMID:24847246

Neural Network Emulation of Reionization Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmit, Claude J.; Pritchard, Jonathan R.

2018-05-01

Next generation radio experiments such as LOFAR, HERA and SKA are expected to probe the Epoch of Reionization and claim a first direct detection of the cosmic 21cm signal within the next decade. One of the major challenges for these experiments will be dealing with enormous incoming data volumes. Machine learning is key to increasing our data analysis efficiency. We consider the use of an artificial neural network to emulate 21cmFAST simulations and use it in a Bayesian parameter inference study. We then compare the network predictions to a direct evaluation of the EoR simulations and analyse the dependence of the results on the training set size. We find that the use of a training set of size 100 samples can recover the error contours of a full scale MCMC analysis which evaluates the model at each step.

Nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian based handwriting beautification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Cao; Xiao, Jianguo; Xu, Canhui; Jia, Wenhua

2013-03-01

A framework is proposed in this paper to effectively and efficiently beautify handwriting by means of a novel nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian algorithm. In the proposed framework, format and size of handwriting image are firstly normalized, and then typeface in computer system is applied to optimize vision effect of handwriting. The Bayesian statistics is exploited to characterize the handwriting beautification process as a Bayesian dynamic model. The model parameters to translate, rotate and scale typeface in computer system are controlled by state equation, and the matching optimization between handwriting and transformed typeface is employed by measurement equation. Finally, the new typeface, which is transformed from the original one and gains the best nonlinear and non-Gaussian optimization, is the beautification result of handwriting. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed framework provides a creative handwriting beautification methodology to improve visual acceptance.

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; Gao, Xiong; Yu, Chen

2017-06-01

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLE confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. The Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.

Bayesian inference for disease prevalence using negative binomial group testing

PubMed Central

Pritchard, Nicholas A.; Tebbs, Joshua M.

2011-01-01

Group testing, also known as pooled testing, and inverse sampling are both widely used methods of data collection when the goal is to estimate a small proportion. Taking a Bayesian approach, we consider the new problem of estimating disease prevalence from group testing when inverse (negative binomial) sampling is used. Using different distributions to incorporate prior knowledge of disease incidence and different loss functions, we derive closed form expressions for posterior distributions and resulting point and credible interval estimators. We then evaluate our new estimators, on Bayesian and classical grounds, and apply our methods to a West Nile Virus data set. PMID:21259308

Bayesian inference based on stationary Fokker-Planck sampling.

PubMed

Berrones, Arturo

2010-06-01

A novel formalism for bayesian learning in the context of complex inference models is proposed. The method is based on the use of the stationary Fokker-Planck (SFP) approach to sample from the posterior density. Stationary Fokker-Planck sampling generalizes the Gibbs sampler algorithm for arbitrary and unknown conditional densities. By the SFP procedure, approximate analytical expressions for the conditionals and marginals of the posterior can be constructed. At each stage of SFP, the approximate conditionals are used to define a Gibbs sampling process, which is convergent to the full joint posterior. By the analytical marginals efficient learning methods in the context of artificial neural networks are outlined. Offline and incremental bayesian inference and maximum likelihood estimation from the posterior are performed in classification and regression examples. A comparison of SFP with other Monte Carlo strategies in the general problem of sampling from arbitrary densities is also presented. It is shown that SFP is able to jump large low-probability regions without the need of a careful tuning of any step-size parameter. In fact, the SFP method requires only a small set of meaningful parameters that can be selected following clear, problem-independent guidelines. The computation cost of SFP, measured in terms of loss function evaluations, grows linearly with the given model's dimension.

A Bayesian analysis of HAT-P-7b using the EXONEST algorithm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Placek, Ben; Knuth, Kevin H.

2015-01-13

The study of exoplanets (planets orbiting other stars) is revolutionizing the way we view our universe. High-precision photometric data provided by the Kepler Space Telescope (Kepler) enables not only the detection of such planets, but also their characterization. This presents a unique opportunity to apply Bayesian methods to better characterize the multitude of previously confirmed exoplanets. This paper focuses on applying the EXONEST algorithm to characterize the transiting short-period-hot-Jupiter, HAT-P-7b (also referred to as Kepler-2b). EXONEST evaluates a suite of exoplanet photometric models by applying Bayesian Model Selection, which is implemented with the MultiNest algorithm. These models take into accountmore » planetary effects, such as reflected light and thermal emissions, as well as the effect of the planetary motion on the host star, such as Doppler beaming, or boosting, of light from the reflex motion of the host star, and photometric variations due to the planet-induced ellipsoidal shape of the host star. By calculating model evidences, one can determine which model best describes the observed data, thus identifying which effects dominate the planetary system. Presented are parameter estimates and model evidences for HAT-P-7b.« less

Incorporating approximation error in surrogate based Bayesian inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Zeng, L.; Li, W.; Wu, L.

2015-12-01

There are increasing interests in applying surrogates for inverse Bayesian modeling to reduce repetitive evaluations of original model. In this way, the computational cost is expected to be saved. However, the approximation error of surrogate model is usually overlooked. This is partly because that it is difficult to evaluate the approximation error for many surrogates. Previous studies have shown that, the direct combination of surrogates and Bayesian methods (e.g., Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC) may lead to biased estimations when the surrogate cannot emulate the highly nonlinear original system. This problem can be alleviated by implementing MCMC in a two-stage manner. However, the computational cost is still high since a relatively large number of original model simulations are required. In this study, we illustrate the importance of incorporating approximation error in inverse Bayesian modeling. Gaussian process (GP) is chosen to construct the surrogate for its convenience in approximation error evaluation. Numerical cases of Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation for contaminant source identification are used to illustrate this idea. It is shown that, once the surrogate approximation error is well incorporated into Bayesian framework, promising results can be obtained even when the surrogate is directly used, and no further original model simulations are required.

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

PubMed

Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

2018-01-01

This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

Iterative Bayesian Estimation of Travel Times on Urban Arterials: Fusing Loop Detector and Probe Vehicle Data.

PubMed

Liu, Kai; Cui, Meng-Ying; Cao, Peng; Wang, Jiang-Bo

2016-01-01

On urban arterials, travel time estimation is challenging especially from various data sources. Typically, fusing loop detector data and probe vehicle data to estimate travel time is a troublesome issue while considering the data issue of uncertain, imprecise and even conflicting. In this paper, we propose an improved data fusing methodology for link travel time estimation. Link travel times are simultaneously pre-estimated using loop detector data and probe vehicle data, based on which Bayesian fusion is then applied to fuse the estimated travel times. Next, Iterative Bayesian estimation is proposed to improve Bayesian fusion by incorporating two strategies: 1) substitution strategy which replaces the lower accurate travel time estimation from one sensor with the current fused travel time; and 2) specially-designed conditions for convergence which restrict the estimated travel time in a reasonable range. The estimation results show that, the proposed method outperforms probe vehicle data based method, loop detector based method and single Bayesian fusion, and the mean absolute percentage error is reduced to 4.8%. Additionally, iterative Bayesian estimation performs better for lighter traffic flows when the variability of travel time is practically higher than other periods.

Iterative Bayesian Estimation of Travel Times on Urban Arterials: Fusing Loop Detector and Probe Vehicle Data

PubMed Central

Cui, Meng-Ying; Cao, Peng; Wang, Jiang-Bo

2016-01-01

On urban arterials, travel time estimation is challenging especially from various data sources. Typically, fusing loop detector data and probe vehicle data to estimate travel time is a troublesome issue while considering the data issue of uncertain, imprecise and even conflicting. In this paper, we propose an improved data fusing methodology for link travel time estimation. Link travel times are simultaneously pre-estimated using loop detector data and probe vehicle data, based on which Bayesian fusion is then applied to fuse the estimated travel times. Next, Iterative Bayesian estimation is proposed to improve Bayesian fusion by incorporating two strategies: 1) substitution strategy which replaces the lower accurate travel time estimation from one sensor with the current fused travel time; and 2) specially-designed conditions for convergence which restrict the estimated travel time in a reasonable range. The estimation results show that, the proposed method outperforms probe vehicle data based method, loop detector based method and single Bayesian fusion, and the mean absolute percentage error is reduced to 4.8%. Additionally, iterative Bayesian estimation performs better for lighter traffic flows when the variability of travel time is practically higher than other periods. PMID:27362654

Estimation of parameter uncertainty for an activated sludge model using Bayesian inference: a comparison with the frequentist method.

PubMed

Zonta, Zivko J; Flotats, Xavier; Magrí, Albert

2014-08-01

The procedure commonly used for the assessment of the parameters included in activated sludge models (ASMs) relies on the estimation of their optimal value within a confidence region (i.e. frequentist inference). Once optimal values are estimated, parameter uncertainty is computed through the covariance matrix. However, alternative approaches based on the consideration of the model parameters as probability distributions (i.e. Bayesian inference), may be of interest. The aim of this work is to apply (and compare) both Bayesian and frequentist inference methods when assessing uncertainty for an ASM-type model, which considers intracellular storage and biomass growth, simultaneously. Practical identifiability was addressed exclusively considering respirometric profiles based on the oxygen uptake rate and with the aid of probabilistic global sensitivity analysis. Parameter uncertainty was thus estimated according to both the Bayesian and frequentist inferential procedures. Results were compared in order to evidence the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches. Since it was demonstrated that Bayesian inference could be reduced to a frequentist approach under particular hypotheses, the former can be considered as a more generalist methodology. Hence, the use of Bayesian inference is encouraged for tackling inferential issues in ASM environments.

A Statistical Description of Neural Ensemble Dynamics

PubMed Central

Long, John D.; Carmena, Jose M.

2011-01-01

The growing use of multi-channel neural recording techniques in behaving animals has produced rich datasets that hold immense potential for advancing our understanding of how the brain mediates behavior. One limitation of these techniques is they do not provide important information about the underlying anatomical connections among the recorded neurons within an ensemble. Inferring these connections is often intractable because the set of possible interactions grows exponentially with ensemble size. This is a fundamental challenge one confronts when interpreting these data. Unfortunately, the combination of expert knowledge and ensemble data is often insufficient for selecting a unique model of these interactions. Our approach shifts away from modeling the network diagram of the ensemble toward analyzing changes in the dynamics of the ensemble as they relate to behavior. Our contribution consists of adapting techniques from signal processing and Bayesian statistics to track the dynamics of ensemble data on time-scales comparable with behavior. We employ a Bayesian estimator to weigh prior information against the available ensemble data, and use an adaptive quantization technique to aggregate poorly estimated regions of the ensemble data space. Importantly, our method is capable of detecting changes in both the magnitude and structure of correlations among neurons missed by firing rate metrics. We show that this method is scalable across a wide range of time-scales and ensemble sizes. Lastly, the performance of this method on both simulated and real ensemble data is used to demonstrate its utility. PMID:22319486

Towards a neuro-computational account of prism adaptation.

PubMed

Petitet, Pierre; O'Reilly, Jill X; O'Shea, Jacinta

2017-12-14

Prism adaptation has a long history as an experimental paradigm used to investigate the functional and neural processes that underlie sensorimotor control. In the neuropsychology literature, prism adaptation behaviour is typically explained by reference to a traditional cognitive psychology framework that distinguishes putative functions, such as 'strategic control' versus 'spatial realignment'. This theoretical framework lacks conceptual clarity, quantitative precision and explanatory power. Here, we advocate for an alternative computational framework that offers several advantages: 1) an algorithmic explanatory account of the computations and operations that drive behaviour; 2) expressed in quantitative mathematical terms; 3) embedded within a principled theoretical framework (Bayesian decision theory, state-space modelling); 4) that offers a means to generate and test quantitative behavioural predictions. This computational framework offers a route towards mechanistic neurocognitive explanations of prism adaptation behaviour. Thus it constitutes a conceptual advance compared to the traditional theoretical framework. In this paper, we illustrate how Bayesian decision theory and state-space models offer principled explanations for a range of behavioural phenomena in the field of prism adaptation (e.g. visual capture, magnitude of visual versus proprioceptive realignment, spontaneous recovery and dynamics of adaptation memory). We argue that this explanatory framework can advance understanding of the functional and neural mechanisms that implement prism adaptation behaviour, by enabling quantitative tests of hypotheses that go beyond merely descriptive mapping claims that 'brain area X is (somehow) involved in psychological process Y'. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks in the Design and Optimization of a Nanoparticulate Fingolimod Delivery System Based on Biodegradable Poly(3-Hydroxybutyrate-Co-3-Hydroxyvalerate).

PubMed

Shahsavari, Shadab; Rezaie Shirmard, Leila; Amini, Mohsen; Abedin Dokoosh, Farid

2017-01-01

Formulation of a nanoparticulate Fingolimod delivery system based on biodegradable poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) was optimized according to artificial neural networks (ANNs). Concentration of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate), PVA and amount of Fingolimod is considered as the input value, and the particle size, polydispersity index, loading capacity, and entrapment efficacy as output data in experimental design study. In vitro release study was carried out for best formulation according to statistical analysis. ANNs are employed to generate the best model to determine the relationships between various values. In order to specify the model with the best accuracy and proficiency for the in vitro release, a multilayer percepteron with different training algorithm has been examined. Three training model formulations including Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), gradient descent, and Bayesian regularization were employed for training the ANN models. It is demonstrated that the predictive ability of each training algorithm is in the order of LM > gradient descent > Bayesian regularization. Also, optimum formulation was achieved by LM training function with 15 hidden layers and 20 neurons. The transfer function of the hidden layer for this formulation and the output layer were tansig and purlin, respectively. Also, the optimization process was developed by minimizing the error among the predicted and observed values of training algorithm (about 0.0341). Copyright © 2016 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The interaction of Bayesian priors and sensory data and its neural circuit implementation in visually-guided movement

PubMed Central

Yang, Jin; Lee, Joonyeol; Lisberger, Stephen G.

2012-01-01

Sensory-motor behavior results from a complex interaction of noisy sensory data with priors based on recent experience. By varying the stimulus form and contrast for the initiation of smooth pursuit eye movements in monkeys, we show that visual motion inputs compete with two independent priors: one prior biases eye speed toward zero; the other prior attracts eye direction according to the past several days’ history of target directions. The priors bias the speed and direction of the initiation of pursuit for the weak sensory data provided by the motion of a low-contrast sine wave grating. However, the priors have relatively little effect on pursuit speed and direction when the visual stimulus arises from the coherent motion of a high-contrast patch of dots. For any given stimulus form, the mean and variance of eye speed co-vary in the initiation of pursuit, as expected for signal-dependent noise. This relationship suggests that pursuit implements a trade-off between movement accuracy and variation, reducing both when the sensory signals are noisy. The tradeoff is implemented as a competition of sensory data and priors that follows the rules of Bayesian estimation. Computer simulations show that the priors can be understood as direction specific control of the strength of visual-motor transmission, and can be implemented in a neural-network model that makes testable predictions about the population response in the smooth eye movement region of the frontal eye fields. PMID:23223286

Sensor fusion methods for reducing false alarms in heart rate monitoring.

PubMed

Borges, Gabriel; Brusamarello, Valner

2016-12-01

Automatic patient monitoring is an essential resource in hospitals for good health care management. While alarms caused by abnormal physiological conditions are important for the delivery of fast treatment, they can be also a source of unnecessary noise because of false alarms caused by electromagnetic interference or motion artifacts. One significant source of false alarms is related to heart rate, which is triggered when the heart rhythm of the patient is too fast or too slow. In this work, the fusion of different physiological sensors is explored in order to create a robust heart rate estimation. A set of algorithms using heart rate variability index, Bayesian inference, neural networks, fuzzy logic and majority voting is proposed to fuse the information from the electrocardiogram, arterial blood pressure and photoplethysmogram. Three kinds of information are extracted from each source, namely, heart rate variability, the heart rate difference between sensors and the spectral analysis of low and high noise of each sensor. This information is used as input to the algorithms. Twenty recordings selected from the MIMIC database were used to validate the system. The results showed that neural networks fusion had the best false alarm reduction of 92.5 %, while the Bayesian technique had a reduction of 84.3 %, fuzzy logic 80.6 %, majority voter 72.5 % and the heart rate variability index 67.5 %. Therefore, the proposed algorithms showed good performance and could be useful in bedside monitors.

Model selection and Bayesian inference for high-resolution seabed reflection inversion.

PubMed

Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E; Holland, Charles W

2009-02-01

This paper applies Bayesian inference, including model selection and posterior parameter inference, to inversion of seabed reflection data to resolve sediment structure at a spatial scale below the pulse length of the acoustic source. A practical approach to model selection is used, employing the Bayesian information criterion to decide on the number of sediment layers needed to sufficiently fit the data while satisfying parsimony to avoid overparametrization. Posterior parameter inference is carried out using an efficient Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for high-dimensional models, and results are presented as marginal-probability depth distributions for sound velocity, density, and attenuation. The approach is applied to plane-wave reflection-coefficient inversion of single-bounce data collected on the Malta Plateau, Mediterranean Sea, which indicate complex fine structure close to the water-sediment interface. This fine structure is resolved in the geoacoustic inversion results in terms of four layers within the upper meter of sediments. The inversion results are in good agreement with parameter estimates from a gravity core taken at the experiment site.

A Monte Carlo–Based Bayesian Approach for Measuring Agreement in a Qualitative Scale

PubMed Central

Pérez Sánchez, Carlos Javier

2014-01-01

Agreement analysis has been an active research area whose techniques have been widely applied in psychology and other fields. However, statistical agreement among raters has been mainly considered from a classical statistics point of view. Bayesian methodology is a viable alternative that allows the inclusion of subjective initial information coming from expert opinions, personal judgments, or historical data. A Bayesian approach is proposed by providing a unified Monte Carlo–based framework to estimate all types of measures of agreement in a qualitative scale of response. The approach is conceptually simple and it has a low computational cost. Both informative and non-informative scenarios are considered. In case no initial information is available, the results are in line with the classical methodology, but providing more information on the measures of agreement. For the informative case, some guidelines are presented to elicitate the prior distribution. The approach has been applied to two applications related to schizophrenia diagnosis and sensory analysis. PMID:29881002

An unbiased Bayesian approach to functional connectomics implicates social-communication networks in autism

PubMed Central

Venkataraman, Archana; Duncan, James S.; Yang, Daniel Y.-J.; Pelphrey, Kevin A.

2015-01-01

Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) studies reveal a complex pattern of hyper- and hypo-connectivity in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Whereas rsfMRI findings tend to implicate the default mode network and subcortical areas in ASD, task fMRI and behavioral experiments point to social dysfunction as a unifying impairment of the disorder. Here, we leverage a novel Bayesian framework for whole-brain functional connectomics that aggregates population differences in connectivity to localize a subset of foci that are most affected by ASD. Our approach is entirely data-driven and does not impose spatial constraints on the region foci or dictate the trajectory of altered functional pathways. We apply our method to data from the openly shared Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) and pinpoint two intrinsic functional networks that distinguish ASD patients from typically developing controls. One network involves foci in the right temporal pole, left posterior cingulate cortex, left supramarginal gyrus, and left middle temporal gyrus. Automated decoding of this network by the Neurosynth meta-analytic database suggests high-level concepts of “language” and “comprehension” as the likely functional correlates. The second network consists of the left banks of the superior temporal sulcus, right posterior superior temporal sulcus extending into temporo-parietal junction, and right middle temporal gyrus. Associated functionality of these regions includes “social” and “person”. The abnormal pathways emanating from the above foci indicate that ASD patients simultaneously exhibit reduced long-range or inter-hemispheric connectivity and increased short-range or intra-hemispheric connectivity. Our findings reveal new insights into ASD and highlight possible neural mechanisms of the disorder. PMID:26106561

HDDM: Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Python.

PubMed

Wiecki, Thomas V; Sofer, Imri; Frank, Michael J

2013-01-01

The diffusion model is a commonly used tool to infer latent psychological processes underlying decision-making, and to link them to neural mechanisms based on response times. Although efficient open source software has been made available to quantitatively fit the model to data, current estimation methods require an abundance of response time measurements to recover meaningful parameters, and only provide point estimates of each parameter. In contrast, hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation methods are useful for enhancing statistical power, allowing for simultaneous estimation of individual subject parameters and the group distribution that they are drawn from, while also providing measures of uncertainty in these parameters in the posterior distribution. Here, we present a novel Python-based toolbox called HDDM (hierarchical drift diffusion model), which allows fast and flexible estimation of the the drift-diffusion model and the related linear ballistic accumulator model. HDDM requires fewer data per subject/condition than non-hierarchical methods, allows for full Bayesian data analysis, and can handle outliers in the data. Finally, HDDM supports the estimation of how trial-by-trial measurements (e.g., fMRI) influence decision-making parameters. This paper will first describe the theoretical background of the drift diffusion model and Bayesian inference. We then illustrate usage of the toolbox on a real-world data set from our lab. Finally, parameter recovery studies show that HDDM beats alternative fitting methods like the χ(2)-quantile method as well as maximum likelihood estimation. The software and documentation can be downloaded at: http://ski.clps.brown.edu/hddm_docs/

Bayesian algorithm implementation in a real time exposure assessment model on benzene with calculation of associated cancer risks.

PubMed

Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Gotti, Alberto; Papaloukas, Costas L; Kassomenos, Pavlos A; Pilidis, Georgios A

2009-01-01

The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded) determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK) risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural). Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations.

Bayesian Algorithm Implementation in a Real Time Exposure Assessment Model on Benzene with Calculation of Associated Cancer Risks

PubMed Central

Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A.; Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Gotti, Alberto; Papaloukas, Costas L.; Kassomenos, Pavlos A.; Pilidis, Georgios A.

2009-01-01

The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded) determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK) risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural). Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations. PMID:22399936

Recurrent Neural Network Applications for Astronomical Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protopapas, Pavlos

2017-06-01

The benefits of good predictive models in astronomy lie in early event prediction systems and effective resource allocation. Current time series methods applicable to regular time series have not evolved to generalize for irregular time series. In this talk, I will describe two Recurrent Neural Network methods, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Echo State Networks (ESNs) for predicting irregular time series. Feature engineering along with a non-linear modeling proved to be an effective predictor. For noisy time series, the prediction is improved by training the network on error realizations using the error estimates from astronomical light curves. In addition to this, we propose a new neural network architecture to remove correlation from the residuals in order to improve prediction and compensate for the noisy data. Finally, I show how to set hyperparameters for a stable and performant solution correctly. In this work, we circumvent this obstacle by optimizing ESN hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian Process priors. This automates the tuning procedure, enabling users to employ the power of RNN without needing an in-depth understanding of the tuning procedure.

Uncertainty Analysis and Parameter Estimation For Nearshore Hydrodynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardani, S.; Kaihatu, J. M.

2012-12-01

Numerical models represent deterministic approaches used for the relevant physical processes in the nearshore. Complexity of the physics of the model and uncertainty involved in the model inputs compel us to apply a stochastic approach to analyze the robustness of the model. The Bayesian inverse problem is one powerful way to estimate the important input model parameters (determined by apriori sensitivity analysis) and can be used for uncertainty analysis of the outputs. Bayesian techniques can be used to find the range of most probable parameters based on the probability of the observed data and the residual errors. In this study, the effect of input data involving lateral (Neumann) boundary conditions, bathymetry and off-shore wave conditions on nearshore numerical models are considered. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to a deterministic numerical model (the Delft3D modeling suite for coupled waves and flow) for the resulting uncertainty analysis of the outputs (wave height, flow velocity, mean sea level and etc.). Uncertainty analysis of outputs is performed by random sampling from the input probability distribution functions and running the model as required until convergence to the consistent results is achieved. The case study used in this analysis is the Duck94 experiment, which was conducted at the U.S. Army Field Research Facility at Duck, North Carolina, USA in the fall of 1994. The joint probability of model parameters relevant for the Duck94 experiments will be found using the Bayesian approach. We will further show that, by using Bayesian techniques to estimate the optimized model parameters as inputs and applying them for uncertainty analysis, we can obtain more consistent results than using the prior information for input data which means that the variation of the uncertain parameter will be decreased and the probability of the observed data will improve as well. Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, Delft3D, uncertainty analysis, Bayesian techniques, MCMC

Bayesian networks in overlay recipe optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binns, Lewis A.; Reynolds, Greg; Rigden, Timothy C.; Watkins, Stephen; Soroka, Andrew

2005-05-01

Currently, overlay measurements are characterized by "recipe", which defines both physical parameters such as focus, illumination et cetera, and also the software parameters such as algorithm to be used and regions of interest. Setting up these recipes requires both engineering time and wafer availability on an overlay tool, so reducing these requirements will result in higher tool productivity. One of the significant challenges to automating this process is that the parameters are highly and complexly correlated. At the same time, a high level of traceability and transparency is required in the recipe creation process, so a technique that maintains its decisions in terms of well defined physical parameters is desirable. Running time should be short, given the system (automatic recipe creation) is being implemented to reduce overheads. Finally, a failure of the system to determine acceptable parameters should be obvious, so a certainty metric is also desirable. The complex, nonlinear interactions make solution by an expert system difficult at best, especially in the verification of the resulting decision network. The transparency requirements tend to preclude classical neural networks and similar techniques. Genetic algorithms and other "global minimization" techniques require too much computational power (given system footprint and cost requirements). A Bayesian network, however, provides a solution to these requirements. Such a network, with appropriate priors, can be used during recipe creation / optimization not just to select a good set of parameters, but also to guide the direction of search, by evaluating the network state while only incomplete information is available. As a Bayesian network maintains an estimate of the probability distribution of nodal values, a maximum-entropy approach can be utilized to obtain a working recipe in a minimum or near-minimum number of steps. In this paper we discuss the potential use of a Bayesian network in such a capacity, reducing the amount of engineering intervention. We discuss the benefits of this approach, especially improved repeatability and traceability of the learning process, and quantification of uncertainty in decisions made. We also consider the problems associated with this approach, especially in detailed construction of network topology, validation of the Bayesian network and the recipes it generates, and issues arising from the integration of a Bayesian network with a complex multithreaded application; these primarily relate to maintaining Bayesian network and system architecture integrity.

Order priors for Bayesian network discovery with an application to malware phylogeny

DOE PAGES

Oyen, Diane; Anderson, Blake; Sentz, Kari; ...

2017-09-15

Here, Bayesian networks have been used extensively to model and discover dependency relationships among sets of random variables. We learn Bayesian network structure with a combination of human knowledge about the partial ordering of variables and statistical inference of conditional dependencies from observed data. Our approach leverages complementary information from human knowledge and inference from observed data to produce networks that reflect human beliefs about the system as well as to fit the observed data. Applying prior beliefs about partial orderings of variables is an approach distinctly different from existing methods that incorporate prior beliefs about direct dependencies (or edges)more » in a Bayesian network. We provide an efficient implementation of the partial-order prior in a Bayesian structure discovery learning algorithm, as well as an edge prior, showing that both priors meet the local modularity requirement necessary for an efficient Bayesian discovery algorithm. In benchmark studies, the partial-order prior improves the accuracy of Bayesian network structure learning as well as the edge prior, even though order priors are more general. Our primary motivation is in characterizing the evolution of families of malware to aid cyber security analysts. For the problem of malware phylogeny discovery, we find that our algorithm, compared to existing malware phylogeny algorithms, more accurately discovers true dependencies that are missed by other algorithms.« less

Order priors for Bayesian network discovery with an application to malware phylogeny

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oyen, Diane; Anderson, Blake; Sentz, Kari

Here, Bayesian networks have been used extensively to model and discover dependency relationships among sets of random variables. We learn Bayesian network structure with a combination of human knowledge about the partial ordering of variables and statistical inference of conditional dependencies from observed data. Our approach leverages complementary information from human knowledge and inference from observed data to produce networks that reflect human beliefs about the system as well as to fit the observed data. Applying prior beliefs about partial orderings of variables is an approach distinctly different from existing methods that incorporate prior beliefs about direct dependencies (or edges)more » in a Bayesian network. We provide an efficient implementation of the partial-order prior in a Bayesian structure discovery learning algorithm, as well as an edge prior, showing that both priors meet the local modularity requirement necessary for an efficient Bayesian discovery algorithm. In benchmark studies, the partial-order prior improves the accuracy of Bayesian network structure learning as well as the edge prior, even though order priors are more general. Our primary motivation is in characterizing the evolution of families of malware to aid cyber security analysts. For the problem of malware phylogeny discovery, we find that our algorithm, compared to existing malware phylogeny algorithms, more accurately discovers true dependencies that are missed by other algorithms.« less

Bayesian B-spline mapping for dynamic quantitative traits.

PubMed

Xing, Jun; Li, Jiahan; Yang, Runqing; Zhou, Xiaojing; Xu, Shizhong

2012-04-01

Owing to their ability and flexibility to describe individual gene expression at different time points, random regression (RR) analyses have become a popular procedure for the genetic analysis of dynamic traits whose phenotypes are collected over time. Specifically, when modelling the dynamic patterns of gene expressions in the RR framework, B-splines have been proved successful as an alternative to orthogonal polynomials. In the so-called Bayesian B-spline quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, B-splines are used to characterize the patterns of QTL effects and individual-specific time-dependent environmental errors over time, and the Bayesian shrinkage estimation method is employed to estimate model parameters. Extensive simulations demonstrate that (1) in terms of statistical power, Bayesian B-spline mapping outperforms the interval mapping based on the maximum likelihood; (2) for the simulated dataset with complicated growth curve simulated by B-splines, Legendre polynomial-based Bayesian mapping is not capable of identifying the designed QTLs accurately, even when higher-order Legendre polynomials are considered and (3) for the simulated dataset using Legendre polynomials, the Bayesian B-spline mapping can find the same QTLs as those identified by Legendre polynomial analysis. All simulation results support the necessity and flexibility of B-spline in Bayesian mapping of dynamic traits. The proposed method is also applied to a real dataset, where QTLs controlling the growth trajectory of stem diameters in Populus are located.

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis–Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

DOE PAGES

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; ...

2017-04-05

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLEmore » confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. As a result, the Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.« less

Robust Learning of High-dimensional Biological Networks with Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nägele, Andreas; Dejori, Mathäus; Stetter, Martin

Structure learning of Bayesian networks applied to gene expression data has become a potentially useful method to estimate interactions between genes. However, the NP-hardness of Bayesian network structure learning renders the reconstruction of the full genetic network with thousands of genes unfeasible. Consequently, the maximal network size is usually restricted dramatically to a small set of genes (corresponding with variables in the Bayesian network). Although this feature reduction step makes structure learning computationally tractable, on the downside, the learned structure might be adversely affected due to the introduction of missing genes. Additionally, gene expression data are usually very sparse with respect to the number of samples, i.e., the number of genes is much greater than the number of different observations. Given these problems, learning robust network features from microarray data is a challenging task. This chapter presents several approaches tackling the robustness issue in order to obtain a more reliable estimation of learned network features.

Bayesian truncation errors in chiral effective field theory: model checking and accounting for correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, Jordan; Wesolowski, Sarah; Furnstahl, Dick

2017-09-01

Chiral effective field theory (EFT) predictions are necessarily truncated at some order in the EFT expansion, which induces an error that must be quantified for robust statistical comparisons to experiment. A Bayesian model yields posterior probability distribution functions for these errors based on expectations of naturalness encoded in Bayesian priors and the observed order-by-order convergence pattern of the EFT. As a general example of a statistical approach to truncation errors, the model was applied to chiral EFT for neutron-proton scattering using various semi-local potentials of Epelbaum, Krebs, and Meißner (EKM). Here we discuss how our model can learn correlation information from the data and how to perform Bayesian model checking to validate that the EFT is working as advertised. Supported in part by NSF PHY-1614460 and DOE NUCLEI SciDAC DE-SC0008533.

Asteroid orbital error analysis: Theory and application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muinonen, K.; Bowell, Edward

1992-01-01

We present a rigorous Bayesian theory for asteroid orbital error estimation in which the probability density of the orbital elements is derived from the noise statistics of the observations. For Gaussian noise in a linearized approximation the probability density is also Gaussian, and the errors of the orbital elements at a given epoch are fully described by the covariance matrix. The law of error propagation can then be applied to calculate past and future positional uncertainty ellipsoids (Cappellari et al. 1976, Yeomans et al. 1987, Whipple et al. 1991). To our knowledge, this is the first time a Bayesian approach has been formulated for orbital element estimation. In contrast to the classical Fisherian school of statistics, the Bayesian school allows a priori information to be formally present in the final estimation. However, Bayesian estimation does give the same results as Fisherian estimation when no priori information is assumed (Lehtinen 1988, and reference therein).

Spatiotemporal Bayesian analysis of Lyme disease in New York state, 1990-2000.

PubMed

Chen, Haiyan; Stratton, Howard H; Caraco, Thomas B; White, Dennis J

2006-07-01

Mapping ordinarily increases our understanding of nontrivial spatial and temporal heterogeneities in disease rates. However, the large number of parameters required by the corresponding statistical models often complicates detailed analysis. This study investigates the feasibility of a fully Bayesian hierarchical regression approach to the problem and identifies how it outperforms two more popular methods: crude rate estimates (CRE) and empirical Bayes standardization (EBS). In particular, we apply a fully Bayesian approach to the spatiotemporal analysis of Lyme disease incidence in New York state for the period 1990-2000. These results are compared with those obtained by CRE and EBS in Chen et al. (2005). We show that the fully Bayesian regression model not only gives more reliable estimates of disease rates than the other two approaches but also allows for tractable models that can accommodate more numerous sources of variation and unknown parameters.

Characterization of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentation process for production of a therapeutic recombinant protein using a multivariate Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Fu, Zhibiao; Baker, Daniel; Cheng, Aili; Leighton, Julie; Appelbaum, Edward; Aon, Juan

2016-05-01

The principle of quality by design (QbD) has been widely applied to biopharmaceutical manufacturing processes. Process characterization is an essential step to implement the QbD concept to establish the design space and to define the proven acceptable ranges (PAR) for critical process parameters (CPPs). In this study, we present characterization of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentation process using risk assessment analysis, statistical design of experiments (DoE), and the multivariate Bayesian predictive approach. The critical quality attributes (CQAs) and CPPs were identified with a risk assessment. The statistical model for each attribute was established using the results from the DoE study with consideration given to interactions between CPPs. Both the conventional overlapping contour plot and the multivariate Bayesian predictive approaches were used to establish the region of process operating conditions where all attributes met their specifications simultaneously. The quantitative Bayesian predictive approach was chosen to define the PARs for the CPPs, which apply to the manufacturing control strategy. Experience from the 10,000 L manufacturing scale process validation, including 64 continued process verification batches, indicates that the CPPs remain under a state of control and within the established PARs. The end product quality attributes were within their drug substance specifications. The probability generated with the Bayesian approach was also used as a tool to assess CPP deviations. This approach can be extended to develop other production process characterization and quantify a reliable operating region. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:799-812, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Predictive distributions for between-study heterogeneity and simple methods for their application in Bayesian meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Turner, Rebecca M; Jackson, Dan; Wei, Yinghui; Thompson, Simon G; Higgins, Julian P T

2015-01-01

Numerous meta-analyses in healthcare research combine results from only a small number of studies, for which the variance representing between-study heterogeneity is estimated imprecisely. A Bayesian approach to estimation allows external evidence on the expected magnitude of heterogeneity to be incorporated. The aim of this paper is to provide tools that improve the accessibility of Bayesian meta-analysis. We present two methods for implementing Bayesian meta-analysis, using numerical integration and importance sampling techniques. Based on 14 886 binary outcome meta-analyses in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, we derive a novel set of predictive distributions for the degree of heterogeneity expected in 80 settings depending on the outcomes assessed and comparisons made. These can be used as prior distributions for heterogeneity in future meta-analyses. The two methods are implemented in R, for which code is provided. Both methods produce equivalent results to standard but more complex Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. The priors are derived as log-normal distributions for the between-study variance, applicable to meta-analyses of binary outcomes on the log odds-ratio scale. The methods are applied to two example meta-analyses, incorporating the relevant predictive distributions as prior distributions for between-study heterogeneity. We have provided resources to facilitate Bayesian meta-analysis, in a form accessible to applied researchers, which allow relevant prior information on the degree of heterogeneity to be incorporated. © 2014 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:25475839

Bayesian classification for the selection of in vitro human embryos using morphological and clinical data.

PubMed

Morales, Dinora Araceli; Bengoetxea, Endika; Larrañaga, Pedro; García, Miguel; Franco, Yosu; Fresnada, Mónica; Merino, Marisa

2008-05-01

In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a medically assisted reproduction technique that enables infertile couples to achieve successful pregnancy. Given the uncertainty of the treatment, we propose an intelligent decision support system based on supervised classification by Bayesian classifiers to aid to the selection of the most promising embryos that will form the batch to be transferred to the woman's uterus. The aim of the supervised classification system is to improve overall success rate of each IVF treatment in which a batch of embryos is transferred each time, where the success is achieved when implantation (i.e. pregnancy) is obtained. Due to ethical reasons, different legislative restrictions apply in every country on this technique. In Spain, legislation allows a maximum of three embryos to form each transfer batch. As a result, clinicians prefer to select the embryos by non-invasive embryo examination based on simple methods and observation focused on morphology and dynamics of embryo development after fertilization. This paper proposes the application of Bayesian classifiers to this embryo selection problem in order to provide a decision support system that allows a more accurate selection than with the actual procedures which fully rely on the expertise and experience of embryologists. For this, we propose to take into consideration a reduced subset of feature variables related to embryo morphology and clinical data of patients, and from this data to induce Bayesian classification models. Results obtained applying a filter technique to choose the subset of variables, and the performance of Bayesian classifiers using them, are presented.

Bayesian non-parametric inference for stochastic epidemic models using Gaussian Processes.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaoguang; Kypraios, Theodore; O'Neill, Philip D

2016-10-01

This paper considers novel Bayesian non-parametric methods for stochastic epidemic models. Many standard modeling and data analysis methods use underlying assumptions (e.g. concerning the rate at which new cases of disease will occur) which are rarely challenged or tested in practice. To relax these assumptions, we develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach using Gaussian Processes, specifically to estimate the infection process. The methods are illustrated with both simulated and real data sets, the former illustrating that the methods can recover the true infection process quite well in practice, and the latter illustrating that the methods can be successfully applied in different settings. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

PubMed

Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

2016-02-15

This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expectation propagation for large scale Bayesian inference of non-linear molecular networks from perturbation data.

PubMed

Narimani, Zahra; Beigy, Hamid; Ahmad, Ashar; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; Fröhlich, Holger

2017-01-01

Inferring the structure of molecular networks from time series protein or gene expression data provides valuable information about the complex biological processes of the cell. Causal network structure inference has been approached using different methods in the past. Most causal network inference techniques, such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks and ordinary differential equations, are limited by their computational complexity and thus make large scale inference infeasible. This is specifically true if a Bayesian framework is applied in order to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty about the correct model. We devise a novel Bayesian network reverse engineering approach using ordinary differential equations with the ability to include non-linearity. Besides modeling arbitrary, possibly combinatorial and time dependent perturbations with unknown targets, one of our main contributions is the use of Expectation Propagation, an algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference over large scale network structures in short computation time. We further explore the possibility of integrating prior knowledge into network inference. We evaluate the proposed model on DREAM4 and DREAM8 data and find it competitive against several state-of-the-art existing network inference methods.

Trans-dimensional and hierarchical Bayesian approaches toward rigorous estimation of seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seongryong; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Mustać, Marija; Rhie, Junkee; Ford, Sean

2016-04-01

A framework is presented within which we provide rigorous estimations for seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia. We use Bayesian inversion methods, which enable statistical estimations of models and their uncertainties based on data information. Ambiguities in error statistics and model parameterizations are addressed by hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques, which can be inherently implemented in the Bayesian inversions. Hence reliable estimation of model parameters and their uncertainties is possible, thus avoiding arbitrary regularizations and parameterizations. Hierarchical and trans-D inversions are performed to develop a three-dimensional velocity model using ambient noise data. To further improve the model, we perform joint inversions with receiver function data using a newly developed Bayesian method. For the source estimation, a novel moment tensor inversion method is presented and applied to regional waveform data of the North Korean nuclear explosion tests. By the combination of new Bayesian techniques and the structural model, coupled with meaningful uncertainties related to each of the processes, more quantitative monitoring and discrimination of seismic events is possible.

Human Subthalamic Nucleus in Movement Error Detection and Its Evaluation during Visuomotor Adaptation

PubMed Central

Zavala, Baltazar; Pogosyan, Alek; Ashkan, Keyoumars; Zrinzo, Ludvic; Foltynie, Thomas; Limousin, Patricia; Brown, Peter

2014-01-01

Monitoring and evaluating movement errors to guide subsequent movements is a critical feature of normal motor control. Previously, we showed that the postmovement increase in electroencephalographic (EEG) beta power over the sensorimotor cortex reflects neural processes that evaluate motor errors consistent with Bayesian inference (Tan et al., 2014). Whether such neural processes are limited to this cortical region or involve the basal ganglia is unclear. Here, we recorded EEG over the cortex and local field potential (LFP) activity in the subthalamic nucleus (STN) from electrodes implanted in patients with Parkinson's disease, while they moved a joystick-controlled cursor to visual targets displayed on a computer screen. After movement offsets, we found increased beta activity in both local STN LFP and sensorimotor cortical EEG and in the coupling between the two, which was affected by both error magnitude and its contextual saliency. The postmovement increase in the coupling between STN and cortex was dominated by information flow from sensorimotor cortex to STN. However, an information drive appeared from STN to sensorimotor cortex in the first phase of the adaptation, when a constant rotation was applied between joystick inputs and cursor outputs. The strength of the STN to cortex drive correlated with the degree of adaption achieved across subjects. These results suggest that oscillatory activity in the beta band may dynamically couple the sensorimotor cortex and basal ganglia after movements. In particular, beta activity driven from the STN to cortex indicates task-relevant movement errors, information that may be important in modifying subsequent motor responses. PMID:25505327

Distributed neural signatures of natural audiovisual speech and music in the human auditory cortex.

PubMed

Salmi, Juha; Koistinen, Olli-Pekka; Glerean, Enrico; Jylänki, Pasi; Vehtari, Aki; Jääskeläinen, Iiro P; Mäkelä, Sasu; Nummenmaa, Lauri; Nummi-Kuisma, Katarina; Nummi, Ilari; Sams, Mikko

2017-08-15

During a conversation or when listening to music, auditory and visual information are combined automatically into audiovisual objects. However, it is still poorly understood how specific type of visual information shapes neural processing of sounds in lifelike stimulus environments. Here we applied multi-voxel pattern analysis to investigate how naturally matching visual input modulates supratemporal cortex activity during processing of naturalistic acoustic speech, singing and instrumental music. Bayesian logistic regression classifiers with sparsity-promoting priors were trained to predict whether the stimulus was audiovisual or auditory, and whether it contained piano playing, speech, or singing. The predictive performances of the classifiers were tested by leaving one participant at a time for testing and training the model using the remaining 15 participants. The signature patterns associated with unimodal auditory stimuli encompassed distributed locations mostly in the middle and superior temporal gyrus (STG/MTG). A pattern regression analysis, based on a continuous acoustic model, revealed that activity in some of these MTG and STG areas were associated with acoustic features present in speech and music stimuli. Concurrent visual stimulus modulated activity in bilateral MTG (speech), lateral aspect of right anterior STG (singing), and bilateral parietal opercular cortex (piano). Our results suggest that specific supratemporal brain areas are involved in processing complex natural speech, singing, and piano playing, and other brain areas located in anterior (facial speech) and posterior (music-related hand actions) supratemporal cortex are influenced by related visual information. Those anterior and posterior supratemporal areas have been linked to stimulus identification and sensory-motor integration, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Double Dissociation between Anterior and Posterior Superior Temporal Gyrus for Processing Audiovisual Speech Demonstrated by Electrocorticography

PubMed Central

Ozker, Muge; Schepers, Inga M.; Magnotti, John F.; Yoshor, Daniel; Beauchamp, Michael S.

2017-01-01

Human speech can be comprehended using only auditory information from the talker’s voice. However, comprehension is improved if the talker’s face is visible, especially if the auditory information is degraded as occurs in noisy environments or with hearing loss. We explored the neural substrates of audiovisual speech perception using electrocorticography, direct recording of neural activity using electrodes implanted on the cortical surface. We observed a double dissociation in the responses to audiovisual speech with clear and noisy auditory component within the superior temporal gyrus (STG), a region long known to be important for speech perception. Anterior STG showed greater neural activity to audiovisual speech with clear auditory component, whereas posterior STG showed similar or greater neural activity to audiovisual speech in which the speech was replaced with speech-like noise. A distinct border between the two response patterns was observed, demarcated by a landmark corresponding to the posterior margin of Heschl’s gyrus. To further investigate the computational roles of both regions, we considered Bayesian models of multisensory integration, which predict that combining the independent sources of information available from different modalities should reduce variability in the neural responses. We tested this prediction by measuring the variability of the neural responses to single audiovisual words. Posterior STG showed smaller variability than anterior STG during presentation of audiovisual speech with noisy auditory component. Taken together, these results suggest that posterior STG but not anterior STG is important for multisensory integration of noisy auditory and visual speech. PMID:28253074

Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B.

2013-01-01

We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology. PMID:24358072

Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B

2011-03-01

We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology.

Palmprint identification using FRIT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kisku, D. R.; Rattani, A.; Gupta, P.; Hwang, C. J.; Sing, J. K.

2011-06-01

This paper proposes a palmprint identification system using Finite Ridgelet Transform (FRIT) and Bayesian classifier. FRIT is applied on the ROI (region of interest), which is extracted from palmprint image, to extract a set of distinctive features from palmprint image. These features are used to classify with the help of Bayesian classifier. The proposed system has been tested on CASIA and IIT Kanpur palmprint databases. The experimental results reveal better performance compared to all well known systems.

On the use of multi-agent systems for the monitoring of industrial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezki, Nafissa; Kazar, Okba; Mouss, Leila Hayet; Kahloul, Laid; Rezki, Djamil

2016-03-01

The objective of the current paper is to present an intelligent system for complex process monitoring, based on artificial intelligence technologies. This system aims to realize with success all the complex process monitoring tasks that are: detection, diagnosis, identification and reconfiguration. For this purpose, the development of a multi-agent system that combines multiple intelligences such as: multivariate control charts, neural networks, Bayesian networks and expert systems has became a necessity. The proposed system is evaluated in the monitoring of the complex process Tennessee Eastman process.

Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

PubMed

Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

2016-01-01

Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models

PubMed Central

Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

2016-01-01

Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance. PMID:26926235

Physics of ultrasonic wave propagation in bone and heart characterized using Bayesian parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Christian Carl

This Dissertation explores the physics underlying the propagation of ultrasonic waves in bone and in heart tissue through the use of Bayesian probability theory. Quantitative ultrasound is a noninvasive modality used for clinical detection, characterization, and evaluation of bone quality and cardiovascular disease. Approaches that extend the state of knowledge of the physics underpinning the interaction of ultrasound with inherently inhomogeneous and isotropic tissue have the potential to enhance its clinical utility. Simulations of fast and slow compressional wave propagation in cancellous bone were carried out to demonstrate the plausibility of a proposed explanation for the widely reported anomalous negative dispersion in cancellous bone. The results showed that negative dispersion could arise from analysis that proceeded under the assumption that the data consist of only a single ultrasonic wave, when in fact two overlapping and interfering waves are present. The confounding effect of overlapping fast and slow waves was addressed by applying Bayesian parameter estimation to simulated data, to experimental data acquired on bone-mimicking phantoms, and to data acquired in vitro on cancellous bone. The Bayesian approach successfully estimated the properties of the individual fast and slow waves even when they strongly overlapped in the acquired data. The Bayesian parameter estimation technique was further applied to an investigation of the anisotropy of ultrasonic properties in cancellous bone. The degree to which fast and slow waves overlap is partially determined by the angle of insonation of ultrasound relative to the predominant direction of trabecular orientation. In the past, studies of anisotropy have been limited by interference between fast and slow waves over a portion of the range of insonation angles. Bayesian analysis estimated attenuation, velocity, and amplitude parameters over the entire range of insonation angles, allowing a more complete characterization of anisotropy. A novel piecewise linear model for the cyclic variation of ultrasonic backscatter from myocardium was proposed. Models of cyclic variation for 100 type 2 diabetes patients and 43 normal control subjects were constructed using Bayesian parameter estimation. Parameters determined from the model, specifically rise time and slew rate, were found to be more reliable in differentiating between subject groups than the previously employed magnitude parameter.

Empirical Bayes estimation of proportions with application to cowbird parasitism rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Hahn, D.C.

1996-01-01

Bayesian models provide a structure for studying collections of parameters such as are considered in the investigation of communities, ecosystems, and landscapes. This structure allows for improved estimation of individual parameters, by considering them in the context of a group of related parameters. Individual estimates are differentially adjusted toward an overall mean, with the magnitude of their adjustment based on their precision. Consequently, Bayesian estimation allows for a more credible identification of extreme values in a collection of estimates. Bayesian models regard individual parameters as values sampled from a specified probability distribution, called a prior. The requirement that the prior be known is often regarded as an unattractive feature of Bayesian analysis and may be the reason why Bayesian analyses are not frequently applied in ecological studies. Empirical Bayes methods provide an alternative approach that incorporates the structural advantages of Bayesian models while requiring a less stringent specification of prior knowledge. Rather than requiring that the prior distribution be known, empirical Bayes methods require only that it be in a certain family of distributions, indexed by hyperparameters that can be estimated from the available data. This structure is of interest per se, in addition to its value in allowing for improved estimation of individual parameters; for example, hypotheses regarding the existence of distinct subgroups in a collection of parameters can be considered under the empirical Bayes framework by allowing the hyperparameters to vary among subgroups. Though empirical Bayes methods have been applied in a variety of contexts, they have received little attention in the ecological literature. We describe the empirical Bayes approach in application to estimation of proportions, using data obtained in a community-wide study of cowbird parasitism rates for illustration. Since observed proportions based on small sample sizes are heavily adjusted toward the mean, extreme values among empirical Bayes estimates identify those species for which there is the greatest evidence of extreme parasitism rates. Applying a subgroup analysis to our data on cowbird parasitism rates, we conclude that parasitism rates for Neotropical Migrants as a group are no greater than those of Resident/Short-distance Migrant species in this forest community. Our data and analyses demonstrate that the parasitism rates for certain Neotropical Migrant species are remarkably low (Wood Thrush and Rose-breasted Grosbeak) while those for others are remarkably high (Ovenbird and Red-eyed Vireo).

Bayesian GGE biplot models applied to maize multi-environments trials.

PubMed

de Oliveira, L A; da Silva, C P; Nuvunga, J J; da Silva, A Q; Balestre, M

2016-06-17

The additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) and the genotype main effects and genotype x environment interaction (GGE) models stand out among the linear-bilinear models used in genotype x environment interaction studies. Despite the advantages of their use to describe genotype x environment (AMMI) or genotype and genotype x environment (GGE) interactions, these methods have known limitations that are inherent to fixed effects models, including difficulty in treating variance heterogeneity and missing data. Traditional biplots include no measure of uncertainty regarding the principal components. The present study aimed to apply the Bayesian approach to GGE biplot models and assess the implications for selecting stable and adapted genotypes. Our results demonstrated that the Bayesian approach applied to GGE models with non-informative priors was consistent with the traditional GGE biplot analysis, although the credible region incorporated into the biplot enabled distinguishing, based on probability, the performance of genotypes, and their relationships with the environments in the biplot. Those regions also enabled the identification of groups of genotypes and environments with similar effects in terms of adaptability and stability. The relative position of genotypes and environments in biplots is highly affected by the experimental accuracy. Thus, incorporation of uncertainty in biplots is a key tool for breeders to make decisions regarding stability selection and adaptability and the definition of mega-environments.

A Bayesian Analysis of the Flood Frequency Hydrology Concept

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

located in northern Austria . It not only underscores attributes of the method as applied to the Kamp at Zwettl but also discusses ways in which the...hydrology concept originally performed by Viglione et al. (2013) for the 622 km2 Kamp at Zwettl river basin located in northern Austria . Eight primary...parts of the example originally profiled by Viglione et al. (2013) for the 622 km2 Kamp at Zwettl river basin located in northern Austria . A Bayesian

Bayesian parameter estimation for nonlinear modelling of biological pathways.

PubMed

Ghasemi, Omid; Lindsey, Merry L; Yang, Tianyi; Nguyen, Nguyen; Huang, Yufei; Jin, Yu-Fang

2011-01-01

The availability of temporal measurements on biological experiments has significantly promoted research areas in systems biology. To gain insight into the interaction and regulation of biological systems, mathematical frameworks such as ordinary differential equations have been widely applied to model biological pathways and interpret the temporal data. Hill equations are the preferred formats to represent the reaction rate in differential equation frameworks, due to their simple structures and their capabilities for easy fitting to saturated experimental measurements. However, Hill equations are highly nonlinearly parameterized functions, and parameters in these functions cannot be measured easily. Additionally, because of its high nonlinearity, adaptive parameter estimation algorithms developed for linear parameterized differential equations cannot be applied. Therefore, parameter estimation in nonlinearly parameterized differential equation models for biological pathways is both challenging and rewarding. In this study, we propose a Bayesian parameter estimation algorithm to estimate parameters in nonlinear mathematical models for biological pathways using time series data. We used the Runge-Kutta method to transform differential equations to difference equations assuming a known structure of the differential equations. This transformation allowed us to generate predictions dependent on previous states and to apply a Bayesian approach, namely, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. We applied this approach to the biological pathways involved in the left ventricle (LV) response to myocardial infarction (MI) and verified our algorithm by estimating two parameters in a Hill equation embedded in the nonlinear model. We further evaluated our estimation performance with different parameter settings and signal to noise ratios. Our results demonstrated the effectiveness of the algorithm for both linearly and nonlinearly parameterized dynamic systems. Our proposed Bayesian algorithm successfully estimated parameters in nonlinear mathematical models for biological pathways. This method can be further extended to high order systems and thus provides a useful tool to analyze biological dynamics and extract information using temporal data.

Application of Bayesian informative priors to enhance the transferability of safety performance functions.

PubMed

Farid, Ahmed; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung; Eluru, Naveen

2017-09-01

Safety performance functions (SPFs) are essential tools for highway agencies to predict crashes, identify hotspots and assess safety countermeasures. In the Highway Safety Manual (HSM), a variety of SPFs are provided for different types of roadway facilities, crash types and severity levels. Agencies, lacking the necessary resources to develop own localized SPFs, may opt to apply the HSM's SPFs for their jurisdictions. Yet, municipalities that want to develop and maintain their regional SPFs might encounter the issue of the small sample bias. Bayesian inference is being conducted to address this issue by combining the current data with prior information to achieve reliable results. It follows that the essence of Bayesian statistics is the application of informative priors, obtained from other SPFs or experts' experiences. In this study, we investigate the applicability of informative priors for Bayesian negative binomial SPFs for rural divided multilane highway segments in Florida and California. An SPF with non-informative priors is developed for each state and its parameters' distributions are assigned to the other state's SPF as informative priors. The performances of SPFs are evaluated by applying each state's SPFs to the other state. The analysis is conducted for both total (KABCO) and severe (KAB) crashes. As per the results, applying one state's SPF with informative priors, which are the other state's SPF independent variable estimates, to the latter state's conditions yields better goodness of fit (GOF) values than applying the former state's SPF with non-informative priors to the conditions of the latter state. This is for both total and severe crash SPFs. Hence, for localities where it is not preferred to develop own localized SPFs and adopt SPFs from elsewhere to cut down on resources, application of informative priors is shown to facilitate the process. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayes in biological anthropology.

PubMed

Konigsberg, Lyle W; Frankenberg, Susan R

2013-12-01

In this article, we both contend and illustrate that biological anthropologists, particularly in the Americas, often think like Bayesians but act like frequentists when it comes to analyzing a wide variety of data. In other words, while our research goals and perspectives are rooted in probabilistic thinking and rest on prior knowledge, we often proceed to use statistical hypothesis tests and confidence interval methods unrelated (or tenuously related) to the research questions of interest. We advocate for applying Bayesian analyses to a number of different bioanthropological questions, especially since many of the programming and computational challenges to doing so have been overcome in the past two decades. To facilitate such applications, this article explains Bayesian principles and concepts, and provides concrete examples of Bayesian computer simulations and statistics that address questions relevant to biological anthropology, focusing particularly on bioarchaeology and forensic anthropology. It also simultaneously reviews the use of Bayesian methods and inference within the discipline to date. This article is intended to act as primer to Bayesian methods and inference in biological anthropology, explaining the relationships of various methods to likelihoods or probabilities and to classical statistical models. Our contention is not that traditional frequentist statistics should be rejected outright, but that there are many situations where biological anthropology is better served by taking a Bayesian approach. To this end it is hoped that the examples provided in this article will assist researchers in choosing from among the broad array of statistical methods currently available. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multi-class segmentation of neuronal electron microscopy images using deep learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khobragade, Nivedita; Agarwal, Chirag

2018-03-01

Study of connectivity of neural circuits is an essential step towards a better understanding of functioning of the nervous system. With the recent improvement in imaging techniques, high-resolution and high-volume images are being generated requiring automated segmentation techniques. We present a pixel-wise classification method based on Bayesian SegNet architecture. We carried out multi-class segmentation on serial section Transmission Electron Microscopy (ssTEM) images of Drosophila third instar larva ventral nerve cord, labeling the four classes of neuron membranes, neuron intracellular space, mitochondria and glia / extracellular space. Bayesian SegNet was trained using 256 ssTEM images of 256 x 256 pixels and tested on 64 different ssTEM images of the same size, from the same serial stack. Due to high class imbalance, we used a class-balanced version of Bayesian SegNet by re-weighting each class based on their relative frequency. We achieved an overall accuracy of 93% and a mean class accuracy of 88% for pixel-wise segmentation using this encoder-decoder approach. On evaluating the segmentation results using similarity metrics like SSIM and Dice Coefficient, we obtained scores of 0.994 and 0.886 respectively. Additionally, we used the network trained using the 256 ssTEM images of Drosophila third instar larva for multi-class labeling of ISBI 2012 challenge ssTEM dataset.

The Bayesian Decoding of Force Stimuli from Slowly Adapting Type I Fibers in Humans.

PubMed

Kasi, Patrick; Wright, James; Khamis, Heba; Birznieks, Ingvars; van Schaik, André

2016-01-01

It is well known that signals encoded by mechanoreceptors facilitate precise object manipulation in humans. It is therefore of interest to study signals encoded by the mechanoreceptors because this will contribute further towards the understanding of fundamental sensory mechanisms that are responsible for coordinating force components during object manipulation. From a practical point of view, this may suggest strategies for designing sensory-controlled biomedical devices and robotic manipulators. We use a two-stage nonlinear decoding paradigm to reconstruct the force stimulus given signals from slowly adapting type one (SA-I) tactile afferents. First, we describe a nonhomogeneous Poisson encoding model which is a function of the force stimulus and the force's rate of change. In the decoding phase, we use a recursive nonlinear Bayesian filter to reconstruct the force profile, given the SA-I spike patterns and parameters described by the encoding model. Under the current encoding model, the mode ratio of force to its derivative is: 1.26 to 1.02. This indicates that the force derivative contributes significantly to the rate of change to the SA-I afferent spike modulation. Furthermore, using recursive Bayesian decoding algorithms is advantageous because it can incorporate past and current information in order to make predictions--consistent with neural systems--with little computational resources. This makes it suitable for interfacing with prostheses.

The Bayesian Decoding of Force Stimuli from Slowly Adapting Type I Fibers in Humans

PubMed Central

Wright, James; Khamis, Heba; Birznieks, Ingvars; van Schaik, André

2016-01-01

It is well known that signals encoded by mechanoreceptors facilitate precise object manipulation in humans. It is therefore of interest to study signals encoded by the mechanoreceptors because this will contribute further towards the understanding of fundamental sensory mechanisms that are responsible for coordinating force components during object manipulation. From a practical point of view, this may suggest strategies for designing sensory-controlled biomedical devices and robotic manipulators. We use a two-stage nonlinear decoding paradigm to reconstruct the force stimulus given signals from slowly adapting type one (SA-I) tactile afferents. First, we describe a nonhomogeneous Poisson encoding model which is a function of the force stimulus and the force’s rate of change. In the decoding phase, we use a recursive nonlinear Bayesian filter to reconstruct the force profile, given the SA-I spike patterns and parameters described by the encoding model. Under the current encoding model, the mode ratio of force to its derivative is: 1.26 to 1.02. This indicates that the force derivative contributes significantly to the rate of change to the SA-I afferent spike modulation. Furthermore, using recursive Bayesian decoding algorithms is advantageous because it can incorporate past and current information in order to make predictions—consistent with neural systems—with little computational resources. This makes it suitable for interfacing with prostheses. PMID:27077750

Statistical analysis of textural features for improved classification of oral histopathological images.

PubMed

Muthu Rama Krishnan, M; Shah, Pratik; Chakraborty, Chandan; Ray, Ajoy K

2012-04-01

The objective of this paper is to provide an improved technique, which can assist oncopathologists in correct screening of oral precancerous conditions specially oral submucous fibrosis (OSF) with significant accuracy on the basis of collagen fibres in the sub-epithelial connective tissue. The proposed scheme is composed of collagen fibres segmentation, its textural feature extraction and selection, screening perfomance enhancement under Gaussian transformation and finally classification. In this study, collagen fibres are segmented on R,G,B color channels using back-probagation neural network from 60 normal and 59 OSF histological images followed by histogram specification for reducing the stain intensity variation. Henceforth, textural features of collgen area are extracted using fractal approaches viz., differential box counting and brownian motion curve . Feature selection is done using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence criterion and the screening performance is evaluated based on various statistical tests to conform Gaussian nature. Here, the screening performance is enhanced under Gaussian transformation of the non-Gaussian features using hybrid distribution. Moreover, the routine screening is designed based on two statistical classifiers viz., Bayesian classification and support vector machines (SVM) to classify normal and OSF. It is observed that SVM with linear kernel function provides better classification accuracy (91.64%) as compared to Bayesian classifier. The addition of fractal features of collagen under Gaussian transformation improves Bayesian classifier's performance from 80.69% to 90.75%. Results are here studied and discussed.

Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation and Bayesian Forecast for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomura, Shunichi; Ogata, Yosihiko

2016-04-01

We propose a Bayesian method of probability forecasting for recurrent earthquakes of inland active faults in Japan. Renewal processes with the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) distribution are applied for over a half of active faults in Japan by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japan. Long-term forecast with the BPT distribution needs two parameters; the mean and coefficient of variation (COV) for recurrence intervals. The HERP applies a common COV parameter for all of these faults because most of them have very few specified paleoseismic events, which is not enough to estimate reliable COV values for respective faults. However, different COV estimates are proposed for the same paleoseismic catalog by some related works. It can make critical difference in forecast to apply different COV estimates and so COV should be carefully selected for individual faults. Recurrence intervals on a fault are, on the average, determined by the long-term slip rate caused by the tectonic motion but fluctuated by nearby seismicities which influence surrounding stress field. The COVs of recurrence intervals depend on such stress perturbation and so have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus we introduce a spatial structure on its COV parameter by Bayesian modeling with a Gaussian process prior. The COVs on active faults are correlated and take similar values for closely located faults. It is found that the spatial trends in the estimated COV values coincide with the density of active faults in Japan. We also show Bayesian forecasts by the proposed model using Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our forecasts are different from HERP's forecast especially on the active faults where HERP's forecasts are very high or low.

Remote Sensing Image Classification Applied to the First National Geographical Information Census of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xin; Wen, Zongyong; Zhu, Zhaorong; Xia, Qiang; Shun, Lan

2016-06-01

Image classification will still be a long way in the future, although it has gone almost half a century. In fact, researchers have gained many fruits in the image classification domain, but there is still a long distance between theory and practice. However, some new methods in the artificial intelligence domain will be absorbed into the image classification domain and draw on the strength of each to offset the weakness of the other, which will open up a new prospect. Usually, networks play the role of a high-level language, as is seen in Artificial Intelligence and statistics, because networks are used to build complex model from simple components. These years, Bayesian Networks, one of probabilistic networks, are a powerful data mining technique for handling uncertainty in complex domains. In this paper, we apply Tree Augmented Naive Bayesian Networks (TAN) to texture classification of High-resolution remote sensing images and put up a new method to construct the network topology structure in terms of training accuracy based on the training samples. Since 2013, China government has started the first national geographical information census project, which mainly interprets geographical information based on high-resolution remote sensing images. Therefore, this paper tries to apply Bayesian network to remote sensing image classification, in order to improve image interpretation in the first national geographical information census project. In the experiment, we choose some remote sensing images in Beijing. Experimental results demonstrate TAN outperform than Naive Bayesian Classifier (NBC) and Maximum Likelihood Classification Method (MLC) in the overall classification accuracy. In addition, the proposed method can reduce the workload of field workers and improve the work efficiency. Although it is time consuming, it will be an attractive and effective method for assisting office operation of image interpretation.

An efficient method for model refinement in diffuse optical tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zirak, A. R.; Khademi, M.

2007-11-01

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) is a non-linear, ill-posed, boundary value and optimization problem which necessitates regularization. Also, Bayesian methods are suitable owing to measurements data are sparse and correlated. In such problems which are solved with iterative methods, for stabilization and better convergence, the solution space must be small. These constraints subject to extensive and overdetermined system of equations which model retrieving criteria specially total least squares (TLS) must to refine model error. Using TLS is limited to linear systems which is not achievable when applying traditional Bayesian methods. This paper presents an efficient method for model refinement using regularized total least squares (RTLS) for treating on linearized DOT problem, having maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator and Tikhonov regulator. This is done with combination Bayesian and regularization tools as preconditioner matrices, applying them to equations and then using RTLS to the resulting linear equations. The preconditioning matrixes are guided by patient specific information as well as a priori knowledge gained from the training set. Simulation results illustrate that proposed method improves the image reconstruction performance and localize the abnormally well.

Individual differences in attention influence perceptual decision making.

PubMed

Nunez, Michael D; Srinivasan, Ramesh; Vandekerckhove, Joachim

2015-01-01

Sequential sampling decision-making models have been successful in accounting for reaction time (RT) and accuracy data in two-alternative forced choice tasks. These models have been used to describe the behavior of populations of participants, and explanatory structures have been proposed to account for between individual variability in model parameters. In this study we show that individual differences in behavior from a novel perceptual decision making task can be attributed to (1) differences in evidence accumulation rates, (2) differences in variability of evidence accumulation within trials, and (3) differences in non-decision times across individuals. Using electroencephalography (EEG), we demonstrate that these differences in cognitive variables, in turn, can be explained by attentional differences as measured by phase-locking of steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP) responses to the signal and noise components of the visual stimulus. Parameters of a cognitive model (a diffusion model) were obtained from accuracy and RT distributions and related to phase-locking indices (PLIs) of SSVEPs with a single step in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Participants who were able to suppress the SSVEP response to visual noise in high frequency bands were able to accumulate correct evidence faster and had shorter non-decision times (preprocessing or motor response times), leading to more accurate responses and faster response times. We show that the combination of cognitive modeling and neural data in a hierarchical Bayesian framework relates physiological processes to the cognitive processes of participants, and that a model with a new (out-of-sample) participant's neural data can predict that participant's behavior more accurately than models without physiological data.

Doctor, what does my positive test mean? From Bayesian textbook tasks to personalized risk communication

PubMed Central

Navarrete, Gorka; Correia, Rut; Sirota, Miroslav; Juanchich, Marie; Huepe, David

2015-01-01

Most of the research on Bayesian reasoning aims to answer theoretical questions about the extent to which people are able to update their beliefs according to Bayes' Theorem, about the evolutionary nature of Bayesian inference, or about the role of cognitive abilities in Bayesian inference. Few studies aim to answer practical, mainly health-related questions, such as, “What does it mean to have a positive test in a context of cancer screening?” or “What is the best way to communicate a medical test result so a patient will understand it?”. This type of research aims to translate empirical findings into effective ways of providing risk information. In addition, the applied research often adopts the paradigms and methods of the theoretically-motivated research. But sometimes it works the other way around, and the theoretical research borrows the importance of the practical question in the medical context. The study of Bayesian reasoning is relevant to risk communication in that, to be as useful as possible, applied research should employ specifically tailored methods and contexts specific to the recipients of the risk information. In this paper, we concentrate on the communication of the result of medical tests and outline the epidemiological and test parameters that affect the predictive power of a test—whether it is correct or not. Building on this, we draw up recommendations for better practice to convey the results of medical tests that could inform health policy makers (What are the drawbacks of mass screenings?), be used by health practitioners and, in turn, help patients to make better and more informed decisions. PMID:26441711

Bayesian State-Space Modelling of Conventional Acoustic Tracking Provides Accurate Descriptors of Home Range Behavior in a Small-Bodied Coastal Fish Species

PubMed Central

Alós, Josep; Palmer, Miquel; Balle, Salvador; Arlinghaus, Robert

2016-01-01

State-space models (SSM) are increasingly applied in studies involving biotelemetry-generated positional data because they are able to estimate movement parameters from positions that are unobserved or have been observed with non-negligible observational error. Popular telemetry systems in marine coastal fish consist of arrays of omnidirectional acoustic receivers, which generate a multivariate time-series of detection events across the tracking period. Here we report a novel Bayesian fitting of a SSM application that couples mechanistic movement properties within a home range (a specific case of random walk weighted by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process) with a model of observational error typical for data obtained from acoustic receiver arrays. We explored the performance and accuracy of the approach through simulation modelling and extensive sensitivity analyses of the effects of various configurations of movement properties and time-steps among positions. Model results show an accurate and unbiased estimation of the movement parameters, and in most cases the simulated movement parameters were properly retrieved. Only in extreme situations (when fast swimming speeds are combined with pooling the number of detections over long time-steps) the model produced some bias that needs to be accounted for in field applications. Our method was subsequently applied to real acoustic tracking data collected from a small marine coastal fish species, the pearly razorfish, Xyrichtys novacula. The Bayesian SSM we present here constitutes an alternative for those used to the Bayesian way of reasoning. Our Bayesian SSM can be easily adapted and generalized to any species, thereby allowing studies in freely roaming animals on the ecological and evolutionary consequences of home ranges and territory establishment, both in fishes and in other taxa. PMID:27119718

Newly developed double neural network concept for reliable fast plasma position control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeon, Young-Mu; Na, Yong-Su; Kim, Myung-Rak; Hwang, Y. S.

2001-01-01

Neural network is considered as a parameter estimation tool in plasma controls for next generation tokamak such as ITER. The neural network has been reported to be so accurate and fast for plasma equilibrium identification that it may be applied to the control of complex tokamak plasmas. For this application, the reliability of the conventional neural network needs to be improved. In this study, a new idea of double neural network is developed to achieve this. The new idea has been applied to simple plasma position identification of KSTAR tokamak for feasibility test. Characteristics of the concept show higher reliability and fault tolerance even in severe faulty conditions, which may make neural network applicable to plasma control reliably and widely in future tokamaks.

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

PubMed

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian meta-analysis can readily include information not easily incorporated in classical methods, and allow for a full evaluation of competing models. Given the power and flexibility of Bayesian methods, we expect them to become widely adopted for meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

A Bayesian hierarchical latent trait model for estimating rater bias and reliability in large-scale performance assessment

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

We propose a novel approach to modelling rater effects in scoring-based assessment. The approach is based on a Bayesian hierarchical model and simulations from the posterior distribution. We apply it to large-scale essay assessment data over a period of 5 years. Empirical results suggest that the model provides a good fit for both the total scores and when applied to individual rubrics. We estimate the median impact of rater effects on the final grade to be ± 2 points on a 50 point scale, while 10% of essays would receive a score at least ± 5 different from their actual quality. Most of the impact is due to rater unreliability, not rater bias. PMID:29614129

Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

PubMed

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2013-01-01

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox framework. How can a toolbox model be quantitatively specified? How can the number of toolbox strategies be limited to prevent uncontrolled strategy sprawl? How can a toolbox model be formally tested against alternative theories? The authors show how these challenges can be met by using Bayesian inference techniques. By means of parameter recovery simulations and the analysis of empirical data across a variety of domains (i.e., judgment and decision making, children's cognitive development, function learning, and perceptual categorization), the authors illustrate how Bayesian inference techniques allow toolbox models to be quantitatively specified, strategy sprawl to be contained, and toolbox models to be rigorously tested against competing theories. The authors demonstrate that their approach applies at the individual level but can also be generalized to the group level with hierarchical Bayesian procedures. The suggested Bayesian inference techniques represent a theoretical and methodological advancement for toolbox theories of cognition and behavior.

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

2003-01-01

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

A Review of Financial Accounting Fraud Detection based on Data Mining Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Anuj; Kumar Panigrahi, Prabin

2012-02-01

With an upsurge in financial accounting fraud in the current economic scenario experienced, financial accounting fraud detection (FAFD) has become an emerging topic of great importance for academic, research and industries. The failure of internal auditing system of the organization in identifying the accounting frauds has lead to use of specialized procedures to detect financial accounting fraud, collective known as forensic accounting. Data mining techniques are providing great aid in financial accounting fraud detection, since dealing with the large data volumes and complexities of financial data are big challenges for forensic accounting. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the literature on the application of data mining techniques for the detection of financial accounting fraud and proposes a framework for data mining techniques based accounting fraud detection. The systematic and comprehensive literature review of the data mining techniques applicable to financial accounting fraud detection may provide a foundation to future research in this field. The findings of this review show that data mining techniques like logistic models, neural networks, Bayesian belief network, and decision trees have been applied most extensively to provide primary solutions to the problems inherent in the detection and classification of fraudulent data.

Over my fake body: body ownership illusions for studying the multisensory basis of own-body perception

PubMed Central

Kilteni, Konstantina; Maselli, Antonella; Kording, Konrad P.; Slater, Mel

2015-01-01

Which is my body and how do I distinguish it from the bodies of others, or from objects in the surrounding environment? The perception of our own body and more particularly our sense of body ownership is taken for granted. Nevertheless, experimental findings from body ownership illusions (BOIs), show that under specific multisensory conditions, we can experience artificial body parts or fake bodies as our own body parts or body, respectively. The aim of the present paper is to discuss how and why BOIs are induced. We review several experimental findings concerning the spatial, temporal, and semantic principles of crossmodal stimuli that have been applied to induce BOIs. On the basis of these principles, we discuss theoretical approaches concerning the underlying mechanism of BOIs. We propose a conceptualization based on Bayesian causal inference for addressing how our nervous system could infer whether an object belongs to our own body, using multisensory, sensorimotor, and semantic information, and we discuss how this can account for several experimental findings. Finally, we point to neural network models as an implementational framework within which the computational problem behind BOIs could be addressed in the future. PMID:25852524

Classification and Sequential Pattern Analysis for Improving Managerial Efficiency and Providing Better Medical Service in Public Healthcare Centers

PubMed Central

Chung, Sukhoon; Rhee, Hyunsill; Suh, Yongmoo

2010-01-01

Objectives This study sought to find answers to the following questions: 1) Can we predict whether a patient will revisit a healthcare center? 2) Can we anticipate diseases of patients who revisit the center? Methods For the first question, we applied 5 classification algorithms (decision tree, artificial neural network, logistic regression, Bayesian networks, and Naïve Bayes) and the stacking-bagging method for building classification models. To solve the second question, we performed sequential pattern analysis. Results We determined: 1) In general, the most influential variables which impact whether a patient of a public healthcare center will revisit it or not are personal burden, insurance bill, period of prescription, age, systolic pressure, name of disease, and postal code. 2) The best plain classification model is dependent on the dataset. 3) Based on average of classification accuracy, the proposed stacking-bagging method outperformed all traditional classification models and our sequential pattern analysis revealed 16 sequential patterns. Conclusions Classification models and sequential patterns can help public healthcare centers plan and implement healthcare service programs and businesses that are more appropriate to local residents, encouraging them to revisit public health centers. PMID:21818426

Application of Machine-Learning Models to Predict Tacrolimus Stable Dose in Renal Transplant Recipients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jie; Liu, Rong; Zhang, Yue-Li; Liu, Mou-Ze; Hu, Yong-Fang; Shao, Ming-Jie; Zhu, Li-Jun; Xin, Hua-Wen; Feng, Gui-Wen; Shang, Wen-Jun; Meng, Xiang-Guang; Zhang, Li-Rong; Ming, Ying-Zi; Zhang, Wei

2017-02-01

Tacrolimus has a narrow therapeutic window and considerable variability in clinical use. Our goal was to compare the performance of multiple linear regression (MLR) and eight machine learning techniques in pharmacogenetic algorithm-based prediction of tacrolimus stable dose (TSD) in a large Chinese cohort. A total of 1,045 renal transplant patients were recruited, 80% of which were randomly selected as the “derivation cohort” to develop dose-prediction algorithm, while the remaining 20% constituted the “validation cohort” to test the final selected algorithm. MLR, artificial neural network (ANN), regression tree (RT), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), boosted regression tree (BRT), support vector regression (SVR), random forest regression (RFR), lasso regression (LAR) and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) were applied and their performances were compared in this work. Among all the machine learning models, RT performed best in both derivation [0.71 (0.67-0.76)] and validation cohorts [0.73 (0.63-0.82)]. In addition, the ideal rate of RT was 4% higher than that of MLR. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use machine learning models to predict TSD, which will further facilitate personalized medicine in tacrolimus administration in the future.

Assessing system reliability and allocating resources: a bayesian approach that integrates multi-level data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graves, Todd L; Hamada, Michael S

2008-01-01

Good estimates of the reliability of a system make use of test data and expert knowledge at all available levels. Furthermore, by integrating all these information sources, one can determine how best to allocate scarce testing resources to reduce uncertainty. Both of these goals are facilitated by modern Bayesian computational methods. We apply these tools to examples that were previously solvable only through the use of ingenious approximations, and use genetic algorithms to guide resource allocation.

Immune allied genetic algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Qin; Lin, Feng; Sun, Wei; Chang, KC

2012-06-01

Bayesian network (BN) structure learning is a NP-hard problem. In this paper, we present an improved approach to enhance efficiency of BN structure learning. To avoid premature convergence in traditional single-group genetic algorithm (GA), we propose an immune allied genetic algorithm (IAGA) in which the multiple-population and allied strategy are introduced. Moreover, in the algorithm, we apply prior knowledge by injecting immune operator to individuals which can effectively prevent degeneration. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique, we present some experimental results.

A Bayesian approach to estimating variance components within a multivariate generalizability theory framework.

PubMed

Jiang, Zhehan; Skorupski, William

2017-12-12

In many behavioral research areas, multivariate generalizability theory (mG theory) has been typically used to investigate the reliability of certain multidimensional assessments. However, traditional mG-theory estimation-namely, using frequentist approaches-has limits, leading researchers to fail to take full advantage of the information that mG theory can offer regarding the reliability of measurements. Alternatively, Bayesian methods provide more information than frequentist approaches can offer. This article presents instructional guidelines on how to implement mG-theory analyses in a Bayesian framework; in particular, BUGS code is presented to fit commonly seen designs from mG theory, including single-facet designs, two-facet crossed designs, and two-facet nested designs. In addition to concrete examples that are closely related to the selected designs and the corresponding BUGS code, a simulated dataset is provided to demonstrate the utility and advantages of the Bayesian approach. This article is intended to serve as a tutorial reference for applied researchers and methodologists conducting mG-theory studies.

Sparse Bayesian Learning for Identifying Imaging Biomarkers in AD Prediction

PubMed Central

Shen, Li; Qi, Yuan; Kim, Sungeun; Nho, Kwangsik; Wan, Jing; Risacher, Shannon L.; Saykin, Andrew J.

2010-01-01

We apply sparse Bayesian learning methods, automatic relevance determination (ARD) and predictive ARD (PARD), to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) classification to make accurate prediction and identify critical imaging markers relevant to AD at the same time. ARD is one of the most successful Bayesian feature selection methods. PARD is a powerful Bayesian feature selection method, and provides sparse models that is easy to interpret. PARD selects the model with the best estimate of the predictive performance instead of choosing the one with the largest marginal model likelihood. Comparative study with support vector machine (SVM) shows that ARD/PARD in general outperform SVM in terms of prediction accuracy. Additional comparison with surface-based general linear model (GLM) analysis shows that regions with strongest signals are identified by both GLM and ARD/PARD. While GLM P-map returns significant regions all over the cortex, ARD/PARD provide a small number of relevant and meaningful imaging markers with predictive power, including both cortical and subcortical measures. PMID:20879451

Bayesian accounts of covert selective attention: A tutorial review.

PubMed

Vincent, Benjamin T

2015-05-01

Decision making and optimal observer models offer an important theoretical approach to the study of covert selective attention. While their probabilistic formulation allows quantitative comparison to human performance, the models can be complex and their insights are not always immediately apparent. Part 1 establishes the theoretical appeal of the Bayesian approach, and introduces the way in which probabilistic approaches can be applied to covert search paradigms. Part 2 presents novel formulations of Bayesian models of 4 important covert attention paradigms, illustrating optimal observer predictions over a range of experimental manipulations. Graphical model notation is used to present models in an accessible way and Supplementary Code is provided to help bridge the gap between model theory and practical implementation. Part 3 reviews a large body of empirical and modelling evidence showing that many experimental phenomena in the domain of covert selective attention are a set of by-products. These effects emerge as the result of observers conducting Bayesian inference with noisy sensory observations, prior expectations, and knowledge of the generative structure of the stimulus environment.

Robust Bayesian Analysis of Heavy-tailed Stochastic Volatility Models using Scale Mixtures of Normal Distributions

PubMed Central

Abanto-Valle, C. A.; Bandyopadhyay, D.; Lachos, V. H.; Enriquez, I.

2009-01-01

A Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is considered. In the face of non-normality, this provides an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of the normal distribution. Specific distributions examined include the normal, student-t, slash and the variance gamma distributions. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is introduced for parameter estimation. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of- sample forecasting results reveal that the SV models based on heavy-tailed SMN distributions provide significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the S&P500 index data over the usual normal model. PMID:20730043

Assessment of Manual Operation Time for the Manufacturing of Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display: A Bayesian Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Chien-wen

2009-01-01

During the processes of TFT-LCD manufacturing, steps like visual inspection of panel surface defects still heavily rely on manual operations. As the manual inspection time of TFT-LCD manufacturing could range from 4 hours to 1 day, the reliability of time forecasting is thus important for production planning, scheduling and customer response. This study would like to propose a practical and easy-to-implement prediction model through the approach of Bayesian networks for time estimation of manual operated procedures in TFT-LCD manufacturing. Given the lack of prior knowledge about manual operation time, algorithms of necessary path condition and expectation-maximization are used for structural learning and estimation of conditional probability distributions respectively. This study also applied Bayesian inference to evaluate the relationships between explanatory variables and manual operation time. With the empirical applications of this proposed forecasting model, approach of Bayesian networks demonstrates its practicability and prediction accountability.

Scaling of counter-current imbibition recovery curves using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafari, Iman; Masihi, Mohsen; Nasiri Zarandi, Masoud

2018-06-01

Scaling imbibition curves are of great importance in the characterization and simulation of oil production from naturally fractured reservoirs. Different parameters such as matrix porosity and permeability, oil and water viscosities, matrix dimensions, and oil/water interfacial tensions have an effective on the imbibition process. Studies on the scaling imbibition curves along with the consideration of different assumptions have resulted in various scaling equations. In this work, using an artificial neural network (ANN) method, a novel technique is presented for scaling imbibition recovery curves, which can be used for scaling the experimental and field-scale imbibition cases. The imbibition recovery curves for training and testing the neural network were gathered through the simulation of different scenarios using a commercial reservoir simulator. In this ANN-based method, six parameters were assumed to have an effect on the imbibition process and were considered as the inputs for training the network. Using the ‘Bayesian regularization’ training algorithm, the network was trained and tested. Training and testing phases showed superior results in comparison with the other scaling methods. It is concluded that using the new technique is useful for scaling imbibition recovery curves, especially for complex cases, for which the common scaling methods are not designed.

How the prior information shapes couplings in neural fields performing optimal multisensory integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, He; Zhang, Wen-Hao; Wong, K. Y. Michael; Wu, Si

Extensive studies suggest that the brain integrates multisensory signals in a Bayesian optimal way. However, it remains largely unknown how the sensory reliability and the prior information shape the neural architecture. In this work, we propose a biologically plausible neural field model, which can perform optimal multisensory integration and encode the whole profile of the posterior. Our model is composed of two modules, each for one modality. The crosstalks between the two modules can be carried out through feedforwad cross-links and reciprocal connections. We found that the reciprocal couplings are crucial to optimal multisensory integration in that the reciprocal coupling pattern is shaped by the correlation in the joint prior distribution of the sensory stimuli. A perturbative approach is developed to illustrate the relation between the prior information and features in coupling patterns quantitatively. Our results show that a decentralized architecture based on reciprocal connections is able to accommodate complex correlation structures across modalities and utilize this prior information in optimal multisensory integration. This work is supported by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (N_HKUST606/12 and 605813) and National Basic Research Program of China (2014CB846101) and the Natural Science Foundation of China (31261160495).

Establishing an index arbitrage model by applying neural networks method--a case study of Nikkei 225 index.

PubMed

Chen, A P; Chianglin, C Y; Chung, H P

2001-10-01

This paper applies the neural network method to establish an index arbitrage model and compares the arbitrage performances to that from traditional cost of carry arbitrage model. From the empirical results of the Nikkei 225 stock index market, following conclusions can be stated: (1) The basis will get enlarged for a time period, more profitability may be obtained from the trend. (2) If the neural network is applied within the index arbitrage model, twofold of return would be obtained than traditional arbitrage model can do. (3) If the T_basis has volatile trend, the neural network arbitrage model will ignore the peak. Although arbitrageur would lose the chance to get profit, they may reduce the market impact risk.

Applied Missing Data Analysis. Methodology in the Social Sciences Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Enders, Craig K.

2010-01-01

Walking readers step by step through complex concepts, this book translates missing data techniques into something that applied researchers and graduate students can understand and utilize in their own research. Enders explains the rationale and procedural details for maximum likelihood estimation, Bayesian estimation, multiple imputation, and…

Prediction of Sybil attack on WSN using Bayesian network and swarm intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muraleedharan, Rajani; Ye, Xiang; Osadciw, Lisa Ann

2008-04-01

Security in wireless sensor networks is typically sacrificed or kept minimal due to limited resources such as memory and battery power. Hence, the sensor nodes are prone to Denial-of-service attacks and detecting the threats is crucial in any application. In this paper, the Sybil attack is analyzed and a novel prediction method, combining Bayesian algorithm and Swarm Intelligence (SI) is proposed. Bayesian Networks (BN) is used in representing and reasoning problems, by modeling the elements of uncertainty. The decision from the BN is applied to SI forming an Hybrid Intelligence Scheme (HIS) to re-route the information and disconnecting the malicious nodes in future routes. A performance comparison based on the prediction using HIS vs. Ant System (AS) helps in prioritizing applications where decisions are time-critical.

Inferring Markov chains: Bayesian estimation, model comparison, entropy rate, and out-of-class modeling.

PubMed

Strelioff, Christopher C; Crutchfield, James P; Hübler, Alfred W

2007-07-01

Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer kth order Markov chains, for arbitrary k , from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both parameter estimation and model-order selection. Extending existing results for multinomial models of discrete data, we connect inference to statistical mechanics through information-theoretic (type theory) techniques. We establish a direct relationship between Bayesian evidence and the partition function which allows for straightforward calculation of the expectation and variance of the conditional relative entropy and the source entropy rate. Finally, we introduce a method that uses finite data-size scaling with model-order comparison to infer the structure of out-of-class processes.

Fast model updating coupling Bayesian inference and PGD model reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubio, Paul-Baptiste; Louf, François; Chamoin, Ludovic

2018-04-01

The paper focuses on a coupled Bayesian-Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) approach for the real-time identification and updating of numerical models. The purpose is to use the most general case of Bayesian inference theory in order to address inverse problems and to deal with different sources of uncertainties (measurement and model errors, stochastic parameters). In order to do so with a reasonable CPU cost, the idea is to replace the direct model called for Monte-Carlo sampling by a PGD reduced model, and in some cases directly compute the probability density functions from the obtained analytical formulation. This procedure is first applied to a welding control example with the updating of a deterministic parameter. In the second application, the identification of a stochastic parameter is studied through a glued assembly example.

Completing sparse and disconnected protein-protein network by deep learning.

PubMed

Huang, Lei; Liao, Li; Wu, Cathy H

2018-03-22

Protein-protein interaction (PPI) prediction remains a central task in systems biology to achieve a better and holistic understanding of cellular and intracellular processes. Recently, an increasing number of computational methods have shifted from pair-wise prediction to network level prediction. Many of the existing network level methods predict PPIs under the assumption that the training network should be connected. However, this assumption greatly affects the prediction power and limits the application area because the current golden standard PPI networks are usually very sparse and disconnected. Therefore, how to effectively predict PPIs based on a training network that is sparse and disconnected remains a challenge. In this work, we developed a novel PPI prediction method based on deep learning neural network and regularized Laplacian kernel. We use a neural network with an autoencoder-like architecture to implicitly simulate the evolutionary processes of a PPI network. Neurons of the output layer correspond to proteins and are labeled with values (1 for interaction and 0 for otherwise) from the adjacency matrix of a sparse disconnected training PPI network. Unlike autoencoder, neurons at the input layer are given all zero input, reflecting an assumption of no a priori knowledge about PPIs, and hidden layers of smaller sizes mimic ancient interactome at different times during evolution. After the training step, an evolved PPI network whose rows are outputs of the neural network can be obtained. We then predict PPIs by applying the regularized Laplacian kernel to the transition matrix that is built upon the evolved PPI network. The results from cross-validation experiments show that the PPI prediction accuracies for yeast data and human data measured as AUC are increased by up to 8.4 and 14.9% respectively, as compared to the baseline. Moreover, the evolved PPI network can also help us leverage complementary information from the disconnected training network and multiple heterogeneous data sources. Tested by the yeast data with six heterogeneous feature kernels, the results show our method can further improve the prediction performance by up to 2%, which is very close to an upper bound that is obtained by an Approximate Bayesian Computation based sampling method. The proposed evolution deep neural network, coupled with regularized Laplacian kernel, is an effective tool in completing sparse and disconnected PPI networks and in facilitating integration of heterogeneous data sources.

Mixed linear-non-linear inversion of crustal deformation data: Bayesian inference of model, weighting and regularization parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, Jun'ichi; Johnson, Kaj M.

2010-06-01

We present a unified theoretical framework and solution method for probabilistic, Bayesian inversions of crustal deformation data. The inversions involve multiple data sets with unknown relative weights, model parameters that are related linearly or non-linearly through theoretic models to observations, prior information on model parameters and regularization priors to stabilize underdetermined problems. To efficiently handle non-linear inversions in which some of the model parameters are linearly related to the observations, this method combines both analytical least-squares solutions and a Monte Carlo sampling technique. In this method, model parameters that are linearly and non-linearly related to observations, relative weights of multiple data sets and relative weights of prior information and regularization priors are determined in a unified Bayesian framework. In this paper, we define the mixed linear-non-linear inverse problem, outline the theoretical basis for the method, provide a step-by-step algorithm for the inversion, validate the inversion method using synthetic data and apply the method to two real data sets. We apply the method to inversions of multiple geodetic data sets with unknown relative data weights for interseismic fault slip and locking depth. We also apply the method to the problem of estimating the spatial distribution of coseismic slip on faults with unknown fault geometry, relative data weights and smoothing regularization weight.

Effectiveness of feature and classifier algorithms in character recognition systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Charles L.

1993-04-01

At the first Census Optical Character Recognition Systems Conference, NIST generated accuracy data for more than character recognition systems. Most systems were tested on the recognition of isolated digits and upper and lower case alphabetic characters. The recognition experiments were performed on sample sizes of 58,000 digits, and 12,000 upper and lower case alphabetic characters. The algorithms used by the 26 conference participants included rule-based methods, image-based methods, statistical methods, and neural networks. The neural network methods included Multi-Layer Perceptron's, Learned Vector Quantitization, Neocognitrons, and cascaded neural networks. In this paper 11 different systems are compared using correlations between the answers of different systems, comparing the decrease in error rate as a function of confidence of recognition, and comparing the writer dependence of recognition. This comparison shows that methods that used different algorithms for feature extraction and recognition performed with very high levels of correlation. This is true for neural network systems, hybrid systems, and statistically based systems, and leads to the conclusion that neural networks have not yet demonstrated a clear superiority to more conventional statistical methods. Comparison of these results with the models of Vapnick (for estimation problems), MacKay (for Bayesian statistical models), Moody (for effective parameterization), and Boltzmann models (for information content) demonstrate that as the limits of training data variance are approached, all classifier systems have similar statistical properties. The limiting condition can only be approached for sufficiently rich feature sets because the accuracy limit is controlled by the available information content of the training set, which must pass through the feature extraction process prior to classification.

Bayesian prediction of placebo analgesia in an instrumental learning model

PubMed Central

Jung, Won-Mo; Lee, Ye-Seul; Wallraven, Christian; Chae, Younbyoung

2017-01-01

Placebo analgesia can be primarily explained by the Pavlovian conditioning paradigm in which a passively applied cue becomes associated with less pain. In contrast, instrumental conditioning employs an active paradigm that might be more similar to clinical settings. In the present study, an instrumental conditioning paradigm involving a modified trust game in a simulated clinical situation was used to induce placebo analgesia. Additionally, Bayesian modeling was applied to predict the placebo responses of individuals based on their choices. Twenty-four participants engaged in a medical trust game in which decisions to receive treatment from either a doctor (more effective with high cost) or a pharmacy (less effective with low cost) were made after receiving a reference pain stimulus. In the conditioning session, the participants received lower levels of pain following both choices, while high pain stimuli were administered in the test session even after making the decision. The choice-dependent pain in the conditioning session was modulated in terms of both intensity and uncertainty. Participants reported significantly less pain when they chose the doctor or the pharmacy for treatment compared to the control trials. The predicted pain ratings based on Bayesian modeling showed significant correlations with the actual reports from participants for both of the choice categories. The instrumental conditioning paradigm allowed for the active choice of optional cues and was able to induce the placebo analgesia effect. Additionally, Bayesian modeling successfully predicted pain ratings in a simulated clinical situation that fits well with placebo analgesia induced by instrumental conditioning. PMID:28225816

Models and simulation of 3D neuronal dendritic trees using Bayesian networks.

PubMed

López-Cruz, Pedro L; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier

2011-12-01

Neuron morphology is crucial for neuronal connectivity and brain information processing. Computational models are important tools for studying dendritic morphology and its role in brain function. We applied a class of probabilistic graphical models called Bayesian networks to generate virtual dendrites from layer III pyramidal neurons from three different regions of the neocortex of the mouse. A set of 41 morphological variables were measured from the 3D reconstructions of real dendrites and their probability distributions used in a machine learning algorithm to induce the model from the data. A simulation algorithm is also proposed to obtain new dendrites by sampling values from Bayesian networks. The main advantage of this approach is that it takes into account and automatically locates the relationships between variables in the data instead of using predefined dependencies. Therefore, the methodology can be applied to any neuronal class while at the same time exploiting class-specific properties. Also, a Bayesian network was defined for each part of the dendrite, allowing the relationships to change in the different sections and to model heterogeneous developmental factors or spatial influences. Several univariate statistical tests and a novel multivariate test based on Kullback-Leibler divergence estimation confirmed that virtual dendrites were similar to real ones. The analyses of the models showed relationships that conform to current neuroanatomical knowledge and support model correctness. At the same time, studying the relationships in the models can help to identify new interactions between variables related to dendritic morphology.

Medical image analysis with artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Jiang, J; Trundle, P; Ren, J

2010-12-01

Given that neural networks have been widely reported in the research community of medical imaging, we provide a focused literature survey on recent neural network developments in computer-aided diagnosis, medical image segmentation and edge detection towards visual content analysis, and medical image registration for its pre-processing and post-processing, with the aims of increasing awareness of how neural networks can be applied to these areas and to provide a foundation for further research and practical development. Representative techniques and algorithms are explained in detail to provide inspiring examples illustrating: (i) how a known neural network with fixed structure and training procedure could be applied to resolve a medical imaging problem; (ii) how medical images could be analysed, processed, and characterised by neural networks; and (iii) how neural networks could be expanded further to resolve problems relevant to medical imaging. In the concluding section, a highlight of comparisons among many neural network applications is included to provide a global view on computational intelligence with neural networks in medical imaging. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Center for Neural Engineering at Tennessee State University, ASSERT Annual Progress Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-07-01

neural networks . Their research topics are: (1) developing frequency dependent oscillatory neural networks ; (2) long term pontentiation learning rules...as applied to spatial navigation; (3) design and build a servo joint robotic arm and (4) neural network based prothesis control. One graduate student

Application of artificial neural networks to gaming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baba, Norio; Kita, Tomio; Oda, Kazuhiro

1995-04-01

Recently, neural network technology has been applied to various actual problems. It has succeeded in producing a large number of intelligent systems. In this article, we suggest that it could be applied to the field of gaming. In particular, we suggest that the neural network model could be used to mimic players' characters. Several computer simulation results using a computer gaming system which is a modified version of the COMMONS GAME confirm our idea.

Uncertainty estimation of a complex water quality model: The influence of Box-Cox transformation on Bayesian approaches and comparison with a non-Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freni, Gabriele; Mannina, Giorgio

In urban drainage modelling, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted necessity. However, uncertainty analysis in urban water-quality modelling is still in its infancy and only few studies have been carried out. Therefore, several methodological aspects still need to be experienced and clarified especially regarding water quality modelling. The use of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty analysis has been stimulated by its rigorous theoretical framework and by the possibility of evaluating the impact of new knowledge on the modelling predictions. Nevertheless, the Bayesian approach relies on some restrictive hypotheses that are not present in less formal methods like the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). One crucial point in the application of Bayesian method is the formulation of a likelihood function that is conditioned by the hypotheses made regarding model residuals. Statistical transformations, such as the use of Box-Cox equation, are generally used to ensure the homoscedasticity of residuals. However, this practice may affect the reliability of the analysis leading to a wrong uncertainty estimation. The present paper aims to explore the influence of the Box-Cox equation for environmental water quality models. To this end, five cases were considered one of which was the “real” residuals distributions (i.e. drawn from available data). The analysis was applied to the Nocella experimental catchment (Italy) which is an agricultural and semi-urbanised basin where two sewer systems, two wastewater treatment plants and a river reach were monitored during both dry and wet weather periods. The results show that the uncertainty estimation is greatly affected by residual transformation and a wrong assumption may also affect the evaluation of model uncertainty. The use of less formal methods always provide an overestimation of modelling uncertainty with respect to Bayesian method but such effect is reduced if a wrong assumption is made regarding the residuals distribution. If residuals are not normally distributed, the uncertainty is over-estimated if Box-Cox transformation is not applied or non-calibrated parameter is used.

Bayesian probabilistic approach for inverse source determination from limited and noisy chemical or biological sensor concentration measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yee, Eugene

2007-04-01

Although a great deal of research effort has been focused on the forward prediction of the dispersion of contaminants (e.g., chemical and biological warfare agents) released into the turbulent atmosphere, much less work has been directed toward the inverse prediction of agent source location and strength from the measured concentration, even though the importance of this problem for a number of practical applications is obvious. In general, the inverse problem of source reconstruction is ill-posed and unsolvable without additional information. It is demonstrated that a Bayesian probabilistic inferential framework provides a natural and logically consistent method for source reconstruction from a limited number of noisy concentration data. In particular, the Bayesian approach permits one to incorporate prior knowledge about the source as well as additional information regarding both model and data errors. The latter enables a rigorous determination of the uncertainty in the inference of the source parameters (e.g., spatial location, emission rate, release time, etc.), hence extending the potential of the methodology as a tool for quantitative source reconstruction. A model (or, source-receptor relationship) that relates the source distribution to the concentration data measured by a number of sensors is formulated, and Bayesian probability theory is used to derive the posterior probability density function of the source parameters. A computationally efficient methodology for determination of the likelihood function for the problem, based on an adjoint representation of the source-receptor relationship, is described. Furthermore, we describe the application of efficient stochastic algorithms based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for sampling from the posterior distribution of the source parameters, the latter of which is required to undertake the Bayesian computation. The Bayesian inferential methodology for source reconstruction is validated against real dispersion data for two cases involving contaminant dispersion in highly disturbed flows over urban and complex environments where the idealizations of horizontal homogeneity and/or temporal stationarity in the flow cannot be applied to simplify the problem. Furthermore, the methodology is applied to the case of reconstruction of multiple sources.

Uncertainty analysis of depth predictions from seismic reflection data using Bayesian statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michelioudakis, Dimitrios G.; Hobbs, Richard W.; Caiado, Camila C. S.

2018-03-01

Estimating the depths of target horizons from seismic reflection data is an important task in exploration geophysics. To constrain these depths we need a reliable and accurate velocity model. Here, we build an optimum 2D seismic reflection data processing flow focused on pre - stack deghosting filters and velocity model building and apply Bayesian methods, including Gaussian process emulation and Bayesian History Matching (BHM), to estimate the uncertainties of the depths of key horizons near the borehole DSDP-258 located in the Mentelle Basin, south west of Australia, and compare the results with the drilled core from that well. Following this strategy, the tie between the modelled and observed depths from DSDP-258 core was in accordance with the ± 2σ posterior credibility intervals and predictions for depths to key horizons were made for the two new drill sites, adjacent the existing borehole of the area. The probabilistic analysis allowed us to generate multiple realizations of pre-stack depth migrated images, these can be directly used to better constrain interpretation and identify potential risk at drill sites. The method will be applied to constrain the drilling targets for the upcoming International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), leg 369.

Uncertainty analysis of depth predictions from seismic reflection data using Bayesian statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michelioudakis, Dimitrios G.; Hobbs, Richard W.; Caiado, Camila C. S.

2018-06-01

Estimating the depths of target horizons from seismic reflection data is an important task in exploration geophysics. To constrain these depths we need a reliable and accurate velocity model. Here, we build an optimum 2-D seismic reflection data processing flow focused on pre-stack deghosting filters and velocity model building and apply Bayesian methods, including Gaussian process emulation and Bayesian History Matching, to estimate the uncertainties of the depths of key horizons near the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) borehole 258 (DSDP-258) located in the Mentelle Basin, southwest of Australia, and compare the results with the drilled core from that well. Following this strategy, the tie between the modelled and observed depths from DSDP-258 core was in accordance with the ±2σ posterior credibility intervals and predictions for depths to key horizons were made for the two new drill sites, adjacent to the existing borehole of the area. The probabilistic analysis allowed us to generate multiple realizations of pre-stack depth migrated images, these can be directly used to better constrain interpretation and identify potential risk at drill sites. The method will be applied to constrain the drilling targets for the upcoming International Ocean Discovery Program, leg 369.

Social Information Is Integrated into Value and Confidence Judgments According to Its Reliability.

PubMed

De Martino, Benedetto; Bobadilla-Suarez, Sebastian; Nouguchi, Takao; Sharot, Tali; Love, Bradley C

2017-06-21

How much we like something, whether it be a bottle of wine or a new film, is affected by the opinions of others. However, the social information that we receive can be contradictory and vary in its reliability. Here, we tested whether the brain incorporates these statistics when judging value and confidence. Participants provided value judgments about consumer goods in the presence of online reviews. We found that participants updated their initial value and confidence judgments in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account both the uncertainty of their initial beliefs and the reliability of the social information. Activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex tracked the degree of belief update. Analogous to how lower-level perceptual information is integrated, we found that the human brain integrates social information according to its reliability when judging value and confidence. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The field of perceptual decision making has shown that the sensory system integrates different sources of information according to their respective reliability, as predicted by a Bayesian inference scheme. In this work, we hypothesized that a similar coding scheme is implemented by the human brain to process social signals and guide complex, value-based decisions. We provide experimental evidence that the human prefrontal cortex's activity is consistent with a Bayesian computation that integrates social information that differs in reliability and that this integration affects the neural representation of value and confidence. Copyright © 2017 De Martino et al.

Learning abstract visual concepts via probabilistic program induction in a Language of Thought.

PubMed

Overlan, Matthew C; Jacobs, Robert A; Piantadosi, Steven T

2017-11-01

The ability to learn abstract concepts is a powerful component of human cognition. It has been argued that variable binding is the key element enabling this ability, but the computational aspects of variable binding remain poorly understood. Here, we address this shortcoming by formalizing the Hierarchical Language of Thought (HLOT) model of rule learning. Given a set of data items, the model uses Bayesian inference to infer a probability distribution over stochastic programs that implement variable binding. Because the model makes use of symbolic variables as well as Bayesian inference and programs with stochastic primitives, it combines many of the advantages of both symbolic and statistical approaches to cognitive modeling. To evaluate the model, we conducted an experiment in which human subjects viewed training items and then judged which test items belong to the same concept as the training items. We found that the HLOT model provides a close match to human generalization patterns, significantly outperforming two variants of the Generalized Context Model, one variant based on string similarity and the other based on visual similarity using features from a deep convolutional neural network. Additional results suggest that variable binding happens automatically, implying that binding operations do not add complexity to peoples' hypothesized rules. Overall, this work demonstrates that a cognitive model combining symbolic variables with Bayesian inference and stochastic program primitives provides a new perspective for understanding people's patterns of generalization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crystalline nucleation in undercooled liquids: a Bayesian data-analysis approach for a nonhomogeneous Poisson process.

PubMed

Filipponi, A; Di Cicco, A; Principi, E

2012-12-01

A Bayesian data-analysis approach to data sets of maximum undercooling temperatures recorded in repeated melting-cooling cycles of high-purity samples is proposed. The crystallization phenomenon is described in terms of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process driven by a temperature-dependent sample nucleation rate J(T). The method was extensively tested by computer simulations and applied to real data for undercooled liquid Ge. It proved to be particularly useful in the case of scarce data sets where the usage of binned data would degrade the available experimental information.

An inquiry into computer understanding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheeseman, Peter

1988-01-01

The paper examines issues connected with the choice of the best method for representing and reasoning about common sense. McDermott (1978) has shown that a direct translation of common sense reasoning into logical form leads to insurmountable difficulties. It is shown, in the present work, that if Bayesian probability is used instead of logic as the language of such reasoning, none of the technical difficulties found in using logic arise. Bayesian inference is applied to a simple example of linguistic information to illustrate the potential of this type of inference for artificial intelligence.

Bayesian design of decision rules for failure detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chow, E. Y.; Willsky, A. S.

1984-01-01

The formulation of the decision making process of a failure detection algorithm as a Bayes sequential decision problem provides a simple conceptualization of the decision rule design problem. As the optimal Bayes rule is not computable, a methodology that is based on the Bayesian approach and aimed at a reduced computational requirement is developed for designing suboptimal rules. A numerical algorithm is constructed to facilitate the design and performance evaluation of these suboptimal rules. The result of applying this design methodology to an example shows that this approach is potentially a useful one.

Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

PubMed

Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

2015-05-10

Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fully Bayesian inference for structural MRI: application to segmentation and statistical analysis of T2-hypointensities.

PubMed

Schmidt, Paul; Schmid, Volker J; Gaser, Christian; Buck, Dorothea; Bührlen, Susanne; Förschler, Annette; Mühlau, Mark

2013-01-01

Aiming at iron-related T2-hypointensity, which is related to normal aging and neurodegenerative processes, we here present two practicable approaches, based on Bayesian inference, for preprocessing and statistical analysis of a complex set of structural MRI data. In particular, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to simulate posterior distributions. First, we rendered a segmentation algorithm that uses outlier detection based on model checking techniques within a Bayesian mixture model. Second, we rendered an analytical tool comprising a Bayesian regression model with smoothness priors (in the form of Gaussian Markov random fields) mitigating the necessity to smooth data prior to statistical analysis. For validation, we used simulated data and MRI data of 27 healthy controls (age: [Formula: see text]; range, [Formula: see text]). We first observed robust segmentation of both simulated T2-hypointensities and gray-matter regions known to be T2-hypointense. Second, simulated data and images of segmented T2-hypointensity were analyzed. We found not only robust identification of simulated effects but also a biologically plausible age-related increase of T2-hypointensity primarily within the dentate nucleus but also within the globus pallidus, substantia nigra, and red nucleus. Our results indicate that fully Bayesian inference can successfully be applied for preprocessing and statistical analysis of structural MRI data.

Probabilistic models in human sensorimotor control

PubMed Central

Wolpert, Daniel M.

2009-01-01

Sensory and motor uncertainty form a fundamental constraint on human sensorimotor control. Bayesian decision theory (BDT) has emerged as a unifying framework to understand how the central nervous system performs optimal estimation and control in the face of such uncertainty. BDT has two components: Bayesian statistics and decision theory. Here we review Bayesian statistics and show how it applies to estimating the state of the world and our own body. Recent results suggest that when learning novel tasks we are able to learn the statistical properties of both the world and our own sensory apparatus so as to perform estimation using Bayesian statistics. We review studies which suggest that humans can combine multiple sources of information to form maximum likelihood estimates, can incorporate prior beliefs about possible states of the world so as to generate maximum a posteriori estimates and can use Kalman filter-based processes to estimate time-varying states. Finally, we review Bayesian decision theory in motor control and how the central nervous system processes errors to determine loss functions and optimal actions. We review results that suggest we plan movements based on statistics of our actions that result from signal-dependent noise on our motor outputs. Taken together these studies provide a statistical framework for how the motor system performs in the presence of uncertainty. PMID:17628731

Radiation dose reduction in computed tomography perfusion using spatial-temporal Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Ruogu; Raj, Ashish; Chen, Tsuhan; Sanelli, Pina C.

2012-03-01

In current computed tomography (CT) examinations, the associated X-ray radiation dose is of significant concern to patients and operators, especially CT perfusion (CTP) imaging that has higher radiation dose due to its cine scanning technique. A simple and cost-effective means to perform the examinations is to lower the milliampere-seconds (mAs) parameter as low as reasonably achievable in data acquisition. However, lowering the mAs parameter will unavoidably increase data noise and degrade CT perfusion maps greatly if no adequate noise control is applied during image reconstruction. To capture the essential dynamics of CT perfusion, a simple spatial-temporal Bayesian method that uses a piecewise parametric model of the residual function is used, and then the model parameters are estimated from a Bayesian formulation of prior smoothness constraints on perfusion parameters. From the fitted residual function, reliable CTP parameter maps are obtained from low dose CT data. The merit of this scheme exists in the combination of analytical piecewise residual function with Bayesian framework using a simpler prior spatial constrain for CT perfusion application. On a dataset of 22 patients, this dynamic spatial-temporal Bayesian model yielded an increase in signal-tonoise-ratio (SNR) of 78% and a decrease in mean-square-error (MSE) of 40% at low dose radiation of 43mA.

Applying Bayesian Item Selection Approaches to Adaptive Tests Using Polytomous Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

This study applied the maximum expected information (MEI) and the maximum posterior-weighted information (MPI) approaches of computer adaptive testing item selection to the case of a test using polytomous items following the partial credit model. The MEI and MPI approaches are described. A simulation study compared the efficiency of ability…

Modeling language and cognition with deep unsupervised learning: a tutorial overview

PubMed Central

Zorzi, Marco; Testolin, Alberto; Stoianov, Ivilin P.

2013-01-01

Deep unsupervised learning in stochastic recurrent neural networks with many layers of hidden units is a recent breakthrough in neural computation research. These networks build a hierarchy of progressively more complex distributed representations of the sensory data by fitting a hierarchical generative model. In this article we discuss the theoretical foundations of this approach and we review key issues related to training, testing and analysis of deep networks for modeling language and cognitive processing. The classic letter and word perception problem of McClelland and Rumelhart (1981) is used as a tutorial example to illustrate how structured and abstract representations may emerge from deep generative learning. We argue that the focus on deep architectures and generative (rather than discriminative) learning represents a crucial step forward for the connectionist modeling enterprise, because it offers a more plausible model of cortical learning as well as a way to bridge the gap between emergentist connectionist models and structured Bayesian models of cognition. PMID:23970869

Learning free energy landscapes using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Sidky, Hythem; Whitmer, Jonathan K

2018-03-14

Existing adaptive bias techniques, which seek to estimate free energies and physical properties from molecular simulations, are limited by their reliance on fixed kernels or basis sets which hinder their ability to efficiently conform to varied free energy landscapes. Further, user-specified parameters are in general non-intuitive yet significantly affect the convergence rate and accuracy of the free energy estimate. Here we propose a novel method, wherein artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used to develop an adaptive biasing potential which learns free energy landscapes. We demonstrate that this method is capable of rapidly adapting to complex free energy landscapes and is not prone to boundary or oscillation problems. The method is made robust to hyperparameters and overfitting through Bayesian regularization which penalizes network weights and auto-regulates the number of effective parameters in the network. ANN sampling represents a promising innovative approach which can resolve complex free energy landscapes in less time than conventional approaches while requiring minimal user input.

Modeling language and cognition with deep unsupervised learning: a tutorial overview.

PubMed

Zorzi, Marco; Testolin, Alberto; Stoianov, Ivilin P

2013-01-01

Deep unsupervised learning in stochastic recurrent neural networks with many layers of hidden units is a recent breakthrough in neural computation research. These networks build a hierarchy of progressively more complex distributed representations of the sensory data by fitting a hierarchical generative model. In this article we discuss the theoretical foundations of this approach and we review key issues related to training, testing and analysis of deep networks for modeling language and cognitive processing. The classic letter and word perception problem of McClelland and Rumelhart (1981) is used as a tutorial example to illustrate how structured and abstract representations may emerge from deep generative learning. We argue that the focus on deep architectures and generative (rather than discriminative) learning represents a crucial step forward for the connectionist modeling enterprise, because it offers a more plausible model of cortical learning as well as a way to bridge the gap between emergentist connectionist models and structured Bayesian models of cognition.

A probabilistic, distributed, recursive mechanism for decision-making in the brain

PubMed Central

Gurney, Kevin N.

2018-01-01

Decision formation recruits many brain regions, but the procedure they jointly execute is unknown. Here we characterize its essential composition, using as a framework a novel recursive Bayesian algorithm that makes decisions based on spike-trains with the statistics of those in sensory cortex (MT). Using it to simulate the random-dot-motion task, we demonstrate it quantitatively replicates the choice behaviour of monkeys, whilst predicting losses of otherwise usable information from MT. Its architecture maps to the recurrent cortico-basal-ganglia-thalamo-cortical loops, whose components are all implicated in decision-making. We show that the dynamics of its mapped computations match those of neural activity in the sensorimotor cortex and striatum during decisions, and forecast those of basal ganglia output and thalamus. This also predicts which aspects of neural dynamics are and are not part of inference. Our single-equation algorithm is probabilistic, distributed, recursive, and parallel. Its success at capturing anatomy, behaviour, and electrophysiology suggests that the mechanism implemented by the brain has these same characteristics. PMID:29614077

Learning the ideal observer for SKE detection tasks by use of convolutional neural networks (Cum Laude Poster Award)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Weimin; Anastasio, Mark A.

2018-03-01

It has been advocated that task-based measures of image quality (IQ) should be employed to evaluate and optimize imaging systems. Task-based measures of IQ quantify the performance of an observer on a medically relevant task. The Bayesian Ideal Observer (IO), which employs complete statistical information of the object and noise, achieves the upper limit of the performance for a binary signal classification task. However, computing the IO performance is generally analytically intractable and can be computationally burdensome when Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are employed. In this paper, supervised learning with convolutional neural networks (CNNs) is employed to approximate the IO test statistics for a signal-known-exactly and background-known-exactly (SKE/BKE) binary detection task. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) are compared to those produced by the analytically computed IO. The advantages of the proposed supervised learning approach for approximating the IO are demonstrated.

Learning free energy landscapes using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidky, Hythem; Whitmer, Jonathan K.

2018-03-01

Existing adaptive bias techniques, which seek to estimate free energies and physical properties from molecular simulations, are limited by their reliance on fixed kernels or basis sets which hinder their ability to efficiently conform to varied free energy landscapes. Further, user-specified parameters are in general non-intuitive yet significantly affect the convergence rate and accuracy of the free energy estimate. Here we propose a novel method, wherein artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used to develop an adaptive biasing potential which learns free energy landscapes. We demonstrate that this method is capable of rapidly adapting to complex free energy landscapes and is not prone to boundary or oscillation problems. The method is made robust to hyperparameters and overfitting through Bayesian regularization which penalizes network weights and auto-regulates the number of effective parameters in the network. ANN sampling represents a promising innovative approach which can resolve complex free energy landscapes in less time than conventional approaches while requiring minimal user input.

The neural representation of unexpected uncertainty during value-based decision making.

PubMed

Payzan-LeNestour, Elise; Dunne, Simon; Bossaerts, Peter; O'Doherty, John P

2013-07-10

Uncertainty is an inherent property of the environment and a central feature of models of decision-making and learning. Theoretical propositions suggest that one form, unexpected uncertainty, may be used to rapidly adapt to changes in the environment, while being influenced by two other forms: risk and estimation uncertainty. While previous studies have reported neural representations of estimation uncertainty and risk, relatively little is known about unexpected uncertainty. Here, participants performed a decision-making task while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), which, in combination with a Bayesian model-based analysis, enabled us to separately examine each form of uncertainty examined. We found representations of unexpected uncertainty in multiple cortical areas, as well as the noradrenergic brainstem nucleus locus coeruleus. Other unique cortical regions were found to encode risk, estimation uncertainty, and learning rate. Collectively, these findings support theoretical models in which several formally separable uncertainty computations determine the speed of learning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computations Underlying Social Hierarchy Learning: Distinct Neural Mechanisms for Updating and Representing Self-Relevant Information.

PubMed

Kumaran, Dharshan; Banino, Andrea; Blundell, Charles; Hassabis, Demis; Dayan, Peter

2016-12-07

Knowledge about social hierarchies organizes human behavior, yet we understand little about the underlying computations. Here we show that a Bayesian inference scheme, which tracks the power of individuals, better captures behavioral and neural data compared with a reinforcement learning model inspired by rating systems used in games such as chess. We provide evidence that the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) selectively mediates the updating of knowledge about one's own hierarchy, as opposed to that of another individual, a process that underpinned successful performance and involved functional interactions with the amygdala and hippocampus. In contrast, we observed domain-general coding of rank in the amygdala and hippocampus, even when the task did not require it. Our findings reveal the computations underlying a core aspect of social cognition and provide new evidence that self-relevant information may indeed be afforded a unique representational status in the brain. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinberg, Martin D.

2013-09-01

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimized software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organize and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasizes hybrid tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE implements a full persistence or serialization system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterized posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU General Public License.

Neural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Kenji; Hsu, Ming

2017-07-19

Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under conditions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We show behaviorally that subjects' value updating was sensitive to the reducibility of uncertainty, and could be quantitatively characterized by a Bayesian model where agents ignore expectancy violations that do not update beliefs or values. Using fMRI, we found that neural processes underlying belief and value updating were separable from responses to expectancy violation, and that reducibility of uncertainty in value modulated connections from belief-updating regions to value-updating regions. Together, these results provide insights into how agents use knowledge about uncertainty to make better decisions while ignoring mere expectancy violation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make good decisions, a person must observe the environment carefully, and use these observations to reduce uncertainty about consequences of actions. Importantly, uncertainty should not be reduced purely based on how surprising the observations are, particularly because in some cases uncertainty is not reducible. Here we show that the human brain indeed reduces uncertainty adaptively by taking into account the nature of uncertainty and ignoring mere surprise. Behaviorally, we show that human subjects reduce uncertainty in a quasioptimal Bayesian manner. Using fMRI, we characterize brain regions that may be involved in uncertainty reduction, as well as the network they constitute, and dissociate them from brain regions that respond to mere surprise. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/376972-11$15.00/0.

Fluorescence spectroscopy for diagnosis of squamous intraepithelial lesions of the cervix.

PubMed

Mitchell, M F; Cantor, S B; Ramanujam, N; Tortolero-Luna, G; Richards-Kortum, R

1999-03-01

To calculate receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for fluorescence spectroscopy in order to measure its performance in the diagnosis of squamous intraepithelial lesions (SILs) and to compare these curves with those for other diagnostic methods: colposcopy, cervicography, speculoscopy, Papanicolaou smear screening, and human papillomavirus (HPV) testing. Data from our previous clinical study were used to calculate ROC curves for fluorescence spectroscopy. Curves for other techniques were calculated from other investigators' reports. To identify these, a MEDLINE search for articles published from 1966 to 1996 was carried out, using the search terms "colposcopy," "cervicoscopy," "cervicography," "speculoscopy," "Papanicolaou smear," "HPV testing," "fluorescence spectroscopy," and "polar probe" in conjunction with the terms "diagnosis," "positive predictive value," "negative predictive value," and "receiver operating characteristic curve." We found 270 articles, from which articles were selected if they reported results of studies involving high-disease-prevalence populations, reported findings of studies in which colposcopically directed biopsy was the criterion standard, and included sufficient data for recalculation of the reported sensitivities and specificities. We calculated ROC curves for fluorescence spectroscopy using Bayesian and neural net algorithms. A meta-analytic approach was used to calculate ROC curves for the other techniques. Areas under the curves were calculated. Fluorescence spectroscopy using the neural net algorithm had the highest area under the ROC curve, followed by fluorescence spectroscopy using the Bayesian algorithm, followed by colposcopy, the standard diagnostic technique. Cervicography, Papanicolaou smear screening, and HPV testing performed comparably with each other but not as well as fluorescence spectroscopy and colposcopy. Fluorescence spectroscopy performs better than colposcopy and other techniques in the diagnosis of SILs. Because it also permits real-time diagnosis and has the potential of being used by inexperienced health care personnel, this technology holds bright promise.

Neural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under conditions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We show behaviorally that subjects' value updating was sensitive to the reducibility of uncertainty, and could be quantitatively characterized by a Bayesian model where agents ignore expectancy violations that do not update beliefs or values. Using fMRI, we found that neural processes underlying belief and value updating were separable from responses to expectancy violation, and that reducibility of uncertainty in value modulated connections from belief-updating regions to value-updating regions. Together, these results provide insights into how agents use knowledge about uncertainty to make better decisions while ignoring mere expectancy violation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make good decisions, a person must observe the environment carefully, and use these observations to reduce uncertainty about consequences of actions. Importantly, uncertainty should not be reduced purely based on how surprising the observations are, particularly because in some cases uncertainty is not reducible. Here we show that the human brain indeed reduces uncertainty adaptively by taking into account the nature of uncertainty and ignoring mere surprise. Behaviorally, we show that human subjects reduce uncertainty in a quasioptimal Bayesian manner. Using fMRI, we characterize brain regions that may be involved in uncertainty reduction, as well as the network they constitute, and dissociate them from brain regions that respond to mere surprise. PMID:28626019

An Artificial Neural Network Controller for Intelligent Transportation Systems Applications

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

An Autonomous Intelligent Cruise Control (AICC) has been designed using a feedforward artificial neural network, as an example for utilizing artificial neural networks for nonlinear control problems arising in intelligent transportation systems appli...

Efficient Probabilistic Diagnostics for Electrical Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole J.; Chavira, Mark; Cascio, Keith; Poll, Scott; Darwiche, Adnan; Uckun, Serdar

2008-01-01

We consider in this work the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis when applied to electrical power systems (EPSs). Our probabilistic approach is formally well-founded, as it based on Bayesian networks and arithmetic circuits. We investigate the diagnostic task known as fault isolation, and pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges . model development and real-time reasoning . often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing electrical power systems as Bayesian networks, supported by an easy-to-use speci.cation language. To address the real-time reasoning challenge, we compile Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits. Arithmetic circuit evaluation supports real-time diagnosis by being predictable and fast. In essence, we introduce a high-level EPS speci.cation language from which Bayesian networks that can diagnose multiple simultaneous failures are auto-generated, and we illustrate the feasibility of using arithmetic circuits, compiled from Bayesian networks, for real-time diagnosis on real-world EPSs of interest to NASA. The experimental system is a real-world EPS, namely the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. In experiments with the ADAPT Bayesian network, which currently contains 503 discrete nodes and 579 edges, we .nd high diagnostic accuracy in scenarios where one to three faults, both in components and sensors, were inserted. The time taken to compute the most probable explanation using arithmetic circuits has a small mean of 0.2625 milliseconds and standard deviation of 0.2028 milliseconds. In experiments with data from ADAPT we also show that arithmetic circuit evaluation substantially outperforms joint tree propagation and variable elimination, two alternative algorithms for diagnosis using Bayesian network inference.

From least squares to multilevel modeling: A graphical introduction to Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loredo, Thomas J.

2016-01-01

This tutorial presentation will introduce some of the key ideas and techniques involved in applying Bayesian methods to problems in astrostatistics. The focus will be on the big picture: understanding the foundations (interpreting probability, Bayes's theorem, the law of total probability and marginalization), making connections to traditional methods (propagation of errors, least squares, chi-squared, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo simulation), and highlighting problems where a Bayesian approach can be particularly powerful (Poisson processes, density estimation and curve fitting with measurement error). The "graphical" component of the title reflects an emphasis on pictorial representations of some of the math, but also on the use of graphical models (multilevel or hierarchical models) for analyzing complex data. Code for some examples from the talk will be available to participants, in Python and in the Stan probabilistic programming language.

Bayesian-based estimation of acoustic surface impedance: Finite difference frequency domain approach.

PubMed

Bockman, Alexander; Fackler, Cameron; Xiang, Ning

2015-04-01

Acoustic performance for an interior requires an accurate description of the boundary materials' surface acoustic impedance. Analytical methods may be applied to a small class of test geometries, but inverse numerical methods provide greater flexibility. The parameter estimation problem requires minimizing prediction vice observed acoustic field pressure. The Bayesian-network sampling approach presented here mitigates other methods' susceptibility to noise inherent to the experiment, model, and numerics. A geometry agnostic method is developed here and its parameter estimation performance is demonstrated for an air-backed micro-perforated panel in an impedance tube. Good agreement is found with predictions from the ISO standard two-microphone, impedance-tube method, and a theoretical model for the material. Data by-products exclusive to a Bayesian approach are analyzed to assess sensitivity of the method to nuisance parameters.

A Bayesian Multinomial Probit MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PANEL CHOICE DATA.

PubMed

Fong, Duncan K H; Kim, Sunghoon; Chen, Zhe; DeSarbo, Wayne S

2016-03-01

A new Bayesian multinomial probit model is proposed for the analysis of panel choice data. Using a parameter expansion technique, we are able to devise a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to compute our Bayesian estimates efficiently. We also show that the proposed procedure enables the estimation of individual level coefficients for the single-period multinomial probit model even when the available prior information is vague. We apply our new procedure to consumer purchase data and reanalyze a well-known scanner panel dataset that reveals new substantive insights. In addition, we delineate a number of advantageous features of our proposed procedure over several benchmark models. Finally, through a simulation analysis employing a fractional factorial design, we demonstrate that the results from our proposed model are quite robust with respect to differing factors across various conditions.

Characterization of background concentrations of contaminants using a mixture of normal distributions.

PubMed

Qian, Song S; Lyons, Regan E

2006-10-01

We present a Bayesian approach for characterizing background contaminant concentration distributions using data from sites that may have been contaminated. Our method, focused on estimation, resolves several technical problems of the existing methods sanctioned by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) (a hypothesis testing based method), resulting in a simple and quick procedure for estimating background contaminant concentrations. The proposed Bayesian method is applied to two data sets from a federal facility regulated under the Resource Conservation and Restoration Act. The results are compared to background distributions identified using existing methods recommended by the USEPA. The two data sets represent low and moderate levels of censorship in the data. Although an unbiased estimator is elusive, we show that the proposed Bayesian estimation method will have a smaller bias than the EPA recommended method.

Adult Mammalian Neural Stem Cells and Neurogenesis: Five Decades Later

PubMed Central

Bond, Allison M.; Ming, Guo-li; Song, Hongjun

2015-01-01

Summary Adult somatic stem cells in various organs maintain homeostatic tissue regeneration and enhance plasticity. Since its initial discovery five decades ago, investigations of adult neurogenesis and neural stem cells have led to an established and expanding field that has significantly influenced many facets of neuroscience, developmental biology and regenerative medicine. Here we review recent progress and focus on questions related to adult mammalian neural stem cells that also apply to other somatic stem cells. We further discuss emerging topics that are guiding the field toward better understanding adult neural stem cells and ultimately applying these principles to improve human health. PMID:26431181

Exponential Stability of Almost Periodic Solutions for Memristor-Based Neural Networks with Distributed Leakage Delays.

PubMed

Xu, Changjin; Li, Peiluan; Pang, Yicheng

2016-12-01

In this letter, we deal with a class of memristor-based neural networks with distributed leakage delays. By applying a new Lyapunov function method, we obtain some sufficient conditions that ensure the existence, uniqueness, and global exponential stability of almost periodic solutions of neural networks. We apply the results of this solution to prove the existence and stability of periodic solutions for this delayed neural network with periodic coefficients. We then provide an example to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. Our results are completely new and complement the previous studies Chen, Zeng, and Jiang ( 2014 ) and Jiang, Zeng, and Chen ( 2015 ).

A Comparison of Conventional Linear Regression Methods and Neural Networks for Forecasting Educational Spending.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Bruce D.; Richards, Craig E.

1999-01-01

Applies neural network methods for forecasting 1991-95 per-pupil expenditures in U.S. public elementary and secondary schools. Forecasting models included the National Center for Education Statistics' multivariate regression model and three neural architectures. Regarding prediction accuracy, neural network results were comparable or superior to…

Artificial neural network modeling of dissolved oxygen in the Heihe River, Northwestern China.

PubMed

Wen, Xiaohu; Fang, Jing; Diao, Meina; Zhang, Chuanqi

2013-05-01

Identification and quantification of dissolved oxygen (DO) profiles of river is one of the primary concerns for water resources managers. In this research, an artificial neural network (ANN) was developed to simulate the DO concentrations in the Heihe River, Northwestern China. A three-layer back-propagation ANN was used with the Bayesian regularization training algorithm. The input variables of the neural network were pH, electrical conductivity, chloride (Cl(-)), calcium (Ca(2+)), total alkalinity, total hardness, nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N), and ammonical nitrogen (NH4-N). The ANN structure with 14 hidden neurons obtained the best selection. By making comparison between the results of the ANN model and the measured data on the basis of correlation coefficient (r) and root mean square error (RMSE), a good model-fitting DO values indicated the effectiveness of neural network model. It is found that the coefficient of correlation (r) values for the training, validation, and test sets were 0.9654, 0.9841, and 0.9680, respectively, and the respective values of RMSE for the training, validation, and test sets were 0.4272, 0.3667, and 0.4570, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the influence of input variables on the dependent variable. The most effective inputs were determined as pH, NO3-N, NH4-N, and Ca(2+). Cl(-) was found to be least effective variables on the proposed model. The identified ANN model can be used to simulate the water quality parameters.

Multiscale analysis of neural spike trains.

PubMed

Ramezan, Reza; Marriott, Paul; Chenouri, Shojaeddin

2014-01-30

This paper studies the multiscale analysis of neural spike trains, through both graphical and Poisson process approaches. We introduce the interspike interval plot, which simultaneously visualizes characteristics of neural spiking activity at different time scales. Using an inhomogeneous Poisson process framework, we discuss multiscale estimates of the intensity functions of spike trains. We also introduce the windowing effect for two multiscale methods. Using quasi-likelihood, we develop bootstrap confidence intervals for the multiscale intensity function. We provide a cross-validation scheme, to choose the tuning parameters, and study its unbiasedness. Studying the relationship between the spike rate and the stimulus signal, we observe that adjusting for the first spike latency is important in cross-validation. We show, through examples, that the correlation between spike trains and spike count variability can be multiscale phenomena. Furthermore, we address the modeling of the periodicity of the spike trains caused by a stimulus signal or by brain rhythms. Within the multiscale framework, we introduce intensity functions for spike trains with multiplicative and additive periodic components. Analyzing a dataset from the retinogeniculate synapse, we compare the fit of these models with the Bayesian adaptive regression splines method and discuss the limitations of the methodology. Computational efficiency, which is usually a challenge in the analysis of spike trains, is one of the highlights of these new models. In an example, we show that the reconstruction quality of a complex intensity function demonstrates the ability of the multiscale methodology to crack the neural code. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Artificial intelligence techniques applied to the development of a decision–support system for diagnosing celiac disease

PubMed Central

Tenório, Josceli Maria; Hummel, Anderson Diniz; Cohrs, Frederico Molina; Sdepanian, Vera Lucia; Pisa, Ivan Torres; de Fátima Marin, Heimar

2013-01-01

Background Celiac disease (CD) is a difficult-to-diagnose condition because of its multiple clinical presentations and symptoms shared with other diseases. Gold-standard diagnostic confirmation of suspected CD is achieved by biopsying the small intestine. Objective To develop a clinical decision–support system (CDSS) integrated with an automated classifier to recognize CD cases, by selecting from experimental models developed using intelligence artificial techniques. Methods A web-based system was designed for constructing a retrospective database that included 178 clinical cases for training. Tests were run on 270 automated classifiers available in Weka 3.6.1 using five artificial intelligence techniques, namely decision trees, Bayesian inference, k-nearest neighbor algorithm, support vector machines and artificial neural networks. The parameters evaluated were accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve (AUC). AUC was used as a criterion for selecting the CDSS algorithm. A testing database was constructed including 38 clinical CD cases for CDSS evaluation. The diagnoses suggested by CDSS were compared with those made by physicians during patient consultations. Results The most accurate method during the training phase was the averaged one-dependence estimator (AODE) algorithm (a Bayesian classifier), which showed accuracy 80.0%, sensitivity 0.78, specificity 0.80 and AUC 0.84. This classifier was integrated into the web-based decision–support system. The gold-standard validation of CDSS achieved accuracy of 84.2% and k = 0.68 (p < 0.0001) with good agreement. The same accuracy was achieved in the comparison between the physician’s diagnostic impression and the gold standard k = 0. 64 (p < 0.0001). There was moderate agreement between the physician’s diagnostic impression and CDSS k = 0.46 (p = 0.0008). Conclusions The study results suggest that CDSS could be used to help in diagnosing CD, since the algorithm tested achieved excellent accuracy in differentiating possible positive from negative CD diagnoses. This study may contribute towards developing of a computer-assisted environment to support CD diagnosis. PMID:21917512

A novel Bayesian approach to accounting for uncertainty in fMRI-derived estimates of cerebral oxygen metabolism fluctuations

PubMed Central

Simon, Aaron B.; Dubowitz, David J.; Blockley, Nicholas P.; Buxton, Richard B.

2016-01-01

Calibrated blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) imaging is a multimodal functional MRI technique designed to estimate changes in cerebral oxygen metabolism from measured changes in cerebral blood flow and the BOLD signal. This technique addresses fundamental ambiguities associated with quantitative BOLD signal analysis; however, its dependence on biophysical modeling creates uncertainty in the resulting oxygen metabolism estimates. In this work, we developed a Bayesian approach to estimating the oxygen metabolism response to a neural stimulus and used it to examine the uncertainty that arises in calibrated BOLD estimation due to the presence of unmeasured model parameters. We applied our approach to estimate the CMRO2 response to a visual task using the traditional hypercapnia calibration experiment as well as to estimate the metabolic response to both a visual task and hypercapnia using the measurement of baseline apparent R2′ as a calibration technique. Further, in order to examine the effects of cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) signal contamination on the measurement of apparent R2′, we examined the effects of measuring this parameter with and without CSF-nulling. We found that the two calibration techniques provided consistent estimates of the metabolic response on average, with a median R2′-based estimate of the metabolic response to CO2 of 1.4%, and R2′- and hypercapnia-calibrated estimates of the visual response of 27% and 24%, respectively. However, these estimates were sensitive to different sources of estimation uncertainty. The R2′-calibrated estimate was highly sensitive to CSF contamination and to uncertainty in unmeasured model parameters describing flow-volume coupling, capillary bed characteristics, and the iso-susceptibility saturation of blood. The hypercapnia-calibrated estimate was relatively insensitive to these parameters but highly sensitive to the assumed metabolic response to CO2. PMID:26790354

A novel Bayesian approach to accounting for uncertainty in fMRI-derived estimates of cerebral oxygen metabolism fluctuations.

PubMed

Simon, Aaron B; Dubowitz, David J; Blockley, Nicholas P; Buxton, Richard B

2016-04-01

Calibrated blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) imaging is a multimodal functional MRI technique designed to estimate changes in cerebral oxygen metabolism from measured changes in cerebral blood flow and the BOLD signal. This technique addresses fundamental ambiguities associated with quantitative BOLD signal analysis; however, its dependence on biophysical modeling creates uncertainty in the resulting oxygen metabolism estimates. In this work, we developed a Bayesian approach to estimating the oxygen metabolism response to a neural stimulus and used it to examine the uncertainty that arises in calibrated BOLD estimation due to the presence of unmeasured model parameters. We applied our approach to estimate the CMRO2 response to a visual task using the traditional hypercapnia calibration experiment as well as to estimate the metabolic response to both a visual task and hypercapnia using the measurement of baseline apparent R2' as a calibration technique. Further, in order to examine the effects of cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) signal contamination on the measurement of apparent R2', we examined the effects of measuring this parameter with and without CSF-nulling. We found that the two calibration techniques provided consistent estimates of the metabolic response on average, with a median R2'-based estimate of the metabolic response to CO2 of 1.4%, and R2'- and hypercapnia-calibrated estimates of the visual response of 27% and 24%, respectively. However, these estimates were sensitive to different sources of estimation uncertainty. The R2'-calibrated estimate was highly sensitive to CSF contamination and to uncertainty in unmeasured model parameters describing flow-volume coupling, capillary bed characteristics, and the iso-susceptibility saturation of blood. The hypercapnia-calibrated estimate was relatively insensitive to these parameters but highly sensitive to the assumed metabolic response to CO2. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Artificial intelligence techniques applied to the development of a decision-support system for diagnosing celiac disease.

PubMed

Tenório, Josceli Maria; Hummel, Anderson Diniz; Cohrs, Frederico Molina; Sdepanian, Vera Lucia; Pisa, Ivan Torres; de Fátima Marin, Heimar

2011-11-01

Celiac disease (CD) is a difficult-to-diagnose condition because of its multiple clinical presentations and symptoms shared with other diseases. Gold-standard diagnostic confirmation of suspected CD is achieved by biopsying the small intestine. To develop a clinical decision-support system (CDSS) integrated with an automated classifier to recognize CD cases, by selecting from experimental models developed using intelligence artificial techniques. A web-based system was designed for constructing a retrospective database that included 178 clinical cases for training. Tests were run on 270 automated classifiers available in Weka 3.6.1 using five artificial intelligence techniques, namely decision trees, Bayesian inference, k-nearest neighbor algorithm, support vector machines and artificial neural networks. The parameters evaluated were accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve (AUC). AUC was used as a criterion for selecting the CDSS algorithm. A testing database was constructed including 38 clinical CD cases for CDSS evaluation. The diagnoses suggested by CDSS were compared with those made by physicians during patient consultations. The most accurate method during the training phase was the averaged one-dependence estimator (AODE) algorithm (a Bayesian classifier), which showed accuracy 80.0%, sensitivity 0.78, specificity 0.80 and AUC 0.84. This classifier was integrated into the web-based decision-support system. The gold-standard validation of CDSS achieved accuracy of 84.2% and k=0.68 (p<0.0001) with good agreement. The same accuracy was achieved in the comparison between the physician's diagnostic impression and the gold standard k=0. 64 (p<0.0001). There was moderate agreement between the physician's diagnostic impression and CDSS k=0.46 (p=0.0008). The study results suggest that CDSS could be used to help in diagnosing CD, since the algorithm tested achieved excellent accuracy in differentiating possible positive from negative CD diagnoses. This study may contribute towards developing of a computer-assisted environment to support CD diagnosis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of machine learning techniques to predict all-cause mortality using fitness data: the Henry ford exercIse testing (FIT) project.

PubMed

Sakr, Sherif; Elshawi, Radwa; Ahmed, Amjad M; Qureshi, Waqas T; Brawner, Clinton A; Keteyian, Steven J; Blaha, Michael J; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H

2017-12-19

Prior studies have demonstrated that cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a strong marker of cardiovascular health. Machine learning (ML) can enhance the prediction of outcomes through classification techniques that classify the data into predetermined categories. The aim of this study is to present an evaluation and comparison of how machine learning techniques can be applied on medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness and how the various techniques differ in terms of capabilities of predicting medical outcomes (e.g. mortality). We use data of 34,212 patients free of known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems Between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 10-year follow-up. Seven machine learning classification techniques were evaluated: Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Naïve Bayesian Classifier (BC), Bayesian Network (BN), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and Random Forest (RF). In order to handle the imbalanced dataset used, the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE) is used. Two set of experiments have been conducted with and without the SMOTE sampling technique. On average over different evaluation metrics, SVM Classifier has shown the lowest performance while other models like BN, BC and DT performed better. The RF classifier has shown the best performance (AUC = 0.97) among all models trained using the SMOTE sampling. The results show that various ML techniques can significantly vary in terms of its performance for the different evaluation metrics. It is also not necessarily that the more complex the ML model, the more prediction accuracy can be achieved. The prediction performance of all models trained with SMOTE is much better than the performance of models trained without SMOTE. The study shows the potential of machine learning methods for predicting all-cause mortality using cardiorespiratory fitness data.

Mechanisms of motivational interviewing in health promotion: a Bayesian mediation analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Counselor behaviors that mediate the efficacy of motivational interviewing (MI) are not well understood, especially when applied to health behavior promotion. We hypothesized that client change talk mediates the relationship between counselor variables and subsequent client behavior change. Methods Purposeful sampling identified individuals from a prospective randomized worksite trial using an MI intervention to promote firefighters’ healthy diet and regular exercise that increased dietary intake of fruits and vegetables (n = 21) or did not increase intake of fruits and vegetables (n = 22). MI interactions were coded using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code (MISC 2.1) to categorize counselor and firefighter verbal utterances. Both Bayesian and frequentist mediation analyses were used to investigate whether client change talk mediated the relationship between counselor skills and behavior change. Results Counselors’ global spirit, empathy, and direction and MI-consistent behavioral counts (e.g., reflections, open questions, affirmations, emphasize control) significantly correlated with firefighters’ total client change talk utterances (rs = 0.42, 0.40, 0.30, and 0.61, respectively), which correlated significantly with their fruit and vegetable intake increase (r = 0.33). Both Bayesian and frequentist mediation analyses demonstrated that findings were consistent with hypotheses, such that total client change talk mediated the relationship between counselor’s skills—MI-consistent behaviors [Bayesian mediated effect: αβ = .06 (.03), 95% CI = .02, .12] and MI spirit [Bayesian mediated effect: αβ = .06 (.03), 95% CI = .01, .13]—and increased fruit and vegetable consumption. Conclusion Motivational interviewing is a resource- and time-intensive intervention, and is currently being applied in many arenas. Previous research has identified the importance of counselor behaviors and client change talk in the treatment of substance use disorders. Our results indicate that similar mechanisms may underlie the effects of MI for dietary change. These results inform MI training and application by identifying those processes critical for MI success in health promotion domains. PMID:22681874

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty.

PubMed

de Villemereuil, Pierre; Wells, Jessie A; Edwards, Robert D; Blomberg, Simon P

2012-06-28

Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for phylogenetic comparative analyses, particularly for modelling in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty and accounting for measurement error or individual variation in explanatory variables. Code for all models is provided in the BUGS model description language.

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for phylogenetic comparative analyses, particularly for modelling in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty and accounting for measurement error or individual variation in explanatory variables. Code for all models is provided in the BUGS model description language. PMID:22741602

Study of parameter identification using hybrid neural-genetic algorithm in electro-hydraulic servo system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Byung-Young

2005-12-01

The hybrid neural-genetic multi-model parameter estimation algorithm was demonstrated. This method can be applied to structured system identification of electro-hydraulic servo system. This algorithms consist of a recurrent incremental credit assignment(ICRA) neural network and a genetic algorithm. The ICRA neural network evaluates each member of a generation of model and genetic algorithm produces new generation of model. To evaluate the proposed method, electro-hydraulic servo system was designed and manufactured. The experiment was carried out to figure out the hybrid neural-genetic multi-model parameter estimation algorithm. As a result, the dynamic characteristics were obtained such as the parameters(mass, damping coefficient, bulk modulus, spring coefficient), which minimize total square error. The result of this study can be applied to hydraulic systems in industrial fields.

Simultaneous surface and depth neural activity recording with graphene transistor-based dual-modality probes.

PubMed

Du, Mingde; Xu, Xianchen; Yang, Long; Guo, Yichuan; Guan, Shouliang; Shi, Jidong; Wang, Jinfen; Fang, Ying

2018-05-15

Subdural surface and penetrating depth probes are widely applied to record neural activities from the cortical surface and intracortical locations of the brain, respectively. Simultaneous surface and depth neural activity recording is essential to understand the linkage between the two modalities. Here, we develop flexible dual-modality neural probes based on graphene transistors. The neural probes exhibit stable electrical performance even under 90° bending because of the excellent mechanical properties of graphene, and thus allow multi-site recording from the subdural surface of rat cortex. In addition, finite element analysis was carried out to investigate the mechanical interactions between probe and cortex tissue during intracortical implantation. Based on the simulation results, a sharp tip angle of π/6 was chosen to facilitate tissue penetration of the neural probes. Accordingly, the graphene transistor-based dual-modality neural probes have been successfully applied for simultaneous surface and depth recording of epileptiform activity of rat brain in vivo. Our results show that graphene transistor-based dual-modality neural probes can serve as a facile and versatile tool to study tempo-spatial patterns of neural activities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Calibrating Estimates of Species Divergence Times

PubMed Central

Heath, Tracy A.

2012-01-01

In Bayesian divergence time estimation methods, incorporating calibrating information from the fossil record is commonly done by assigning prior densities to ancestral nodes in the tree. Calibration prior densities are typically parametric distributions offset by minimum age estimates provided by the fossil record. Specification of the parameters of calibration densities requires the user to quantify his or her prior knowledge of the age of the ancestral node relative to the age of its calibrating fossil. The values of these parameters can, potentially, result in biased estimates of node ages if they lead to overly informative prior distributions. Accordingly, determining parameter values that lead to adequate prior densities is not straightforward. In this study, I present a hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating divergence time analyses with multiple fossil age constraints. This approach applies a Dirichlet process prior as a hyperprior on the parameters of calibration prior densities. Specifically, this model assumes that the rate parameters of exponential prior distributions on calibrated nodes are distributed according to a Dirichlet process, whereby the rate parameters are clustered into distinct parameter categories. Both simulated and biological data are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Dirichlet process hyperprior. Compared with fixed exponential prior densities, the hierarchical Bayesian approach results in more accurate and precise estimates of internal node ages. When this hyperprior is applied using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the ages of calibrated nodes are sampled from mixtures of exponential distributions and uncertainty in the values of calibration density parameters is taken into account. PMID:22334343

The influence of baseline marijuana use on treatment of cocaine dependence: application of an informative-priors bayesian approach.

PubMed

Green, Charles; Schmitz, Joy; Lindsay, Jan; Pedroza, Claudia; Lane, Scott; Agnelli, Rob; Kjome, Kimberley; Moeller, F Gerard

2012-01-01

Marijuana use is prevalent among patients with cocaine dependence and often non-exclusionary in clinical trials of potential cocaine medications. The dual-focus of this study was to (1) examine the moderating effect of baseline marijuana use on response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa for cocaine dependence; and (2) apply an informative-priors, Bayesian approach for estimating the probability of a subgroup-by-treatment interaction effect. A secondary data analysis of two previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trials provided complete data for the historical (Study 1: N = 64 placebo), and current (Study 2: N = 113) data sets. Negative binomial regression evaluated Treatment Effectiveness Scores (TES) as a function of medication condition (levodopa/carbidopa, placebo), baseline marijuana use (days in past 30), and their interaction. Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 96% chance that baseline marijuana use predicts differential response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa. Simple effects indicated that among participants receiving levodopa/carbidopa the probability that baseline marijuana confers harm in terms of reducing TES was 0.981; whereas the probability that marijuana confers harm within the placebo condition was 0.163. For every additional day of marijuana use reported at baseline, participants in the levodopa/carbidopa condition demonstrated a 5.4% decrease in TES; while participants in the placebo condition demonstrated a 4.9% increase in TES. The potential moderating effect of marijuana on cocaine treatment response should be considered in future trial designs. Applying Bayesian subgroup analysis proved informative in characterizing this patient-treatment interaction effect.

The Influence of Baseline Marijuana Use on Treatment of Cocaine Dependence: Application of an Informative-Priors Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Green, Charles; Schmitz, Joy; Lindsay, Jan; Pedroza, Claudia; Lane, Scott; Agnelli, Rob; Kjome, Kimberley; Moeller, F. Gerard

2012-01-01

Background: Marijuana use is prevalent among patients with cocaine dependence and often non-exclusionary in clinical trials of potential cocaine medications. The dual-focus of this study was to (1) examine the moderating effect of baseline marijuana use on response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa for cocaine dependence; and (2) apply an informative-priors, Bayesian approach for estimating the probability of a subgroup-by-treatment interaction effect. Method: A secondary data analysis of two previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trials provided complete data for the historical (Study 1: N = 64 placebo), and current (Study 2: N = 113) data sets. Negative binomial regression evaluated Treatment Effectiveness Scores (TES) as a function of medication condition (levodopa/carbidopa, placebo), baseline marijuana use (days in past 30), and their interaction. Results: Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 96% chance that baseline marijuana use predicts differential response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa. Simple effects indicated that among participants receiving levodopa/carbidopa the probability that baseline marijuana confers harm in terms of reducing TES was 0.981; whereas the probability that marijuana confers harm within the placebo condition was 0.163. For every additional day of marijuana use reported at baseline, participants in the levodopa/carbidopa condition demonstrated a 5.4% decrease in TES; while participants in the placebo condition demonstrated a 4.9% increase in TES. Conclusion: The potential moderating effect of marijuana on cocaine treatment response should be considered in future trial designs. Applying Bayesian subgroup analysis proved informative in characterizing this patient-treatment interaction effect. PMID:23115553

Pixel-based skin segmentation in psoriasis images.

PubMed

George, Y; Aldeen, M; Garnavi, R

2016-08-01

In this paper, we present a detailed comparison study of skin segmentation methods for psoriasis images. Different techniques are modified and then applied to a set of psoriasis images acquired from the Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia, with aim of finding the best technique suited for application to psoriasis images. We investigate the effect of different colour transformations on skin detection performance. In this respect, explicit skin thresholding is evaluated with three different decision boundaries (CbCr, HS and rgHSV). Histogram-based Bayesian classifier is applied to extract skin probability maps (SPMs) for different colour channels. This is then followed by using different approaches to find a binary skin map (SM) image from the SPMs. The approaches used include binary decision tree (DT) and Otsu's thresholding. Finally, a set of morphological operations are implemented to refine the resulted SM image. The paper provides detailed analysis and comparison of the performance of the Bayesian classifier in five different colour spaces (YCbCr, HSV, RGB, XYZ and CIELab). The results show that histogram-based Bayesian classifier is more effective than explicit thresholding, when applied to psoriasis images. It is also found that decision boundary CbCr outperforms HS and rgHSV. Another finding is that the SPMs of Cb, Cr, H and B-CIELab colour bands yield the best SMs for psoriasis images. In this study, we used a set of 100 psoriasis images for training and testing the presented methods. True Positive (TP) and True Negative (TN) are used as statistical evaluation measures.

Using Neural Networks to Classify Digitized Images of Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderya, S. N.; McGuire, P. C.

2000-12-01

Automated classification of Galaxies into Hubble types is of paramount importance to study the large scale structure of the Universe, particularly as survey projects like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey complete their data acquisition of one million galaxies. At present it is not possible to find robust and efficient artificial intelligence based galaxy classifiers. In this study we will summarize progress made in the development of automated galaxy classifiers using neural networks as machine learning tools. We explore the Bayesian linear algorithm, the higher order probabilistic network, the multilayer perceptron neural network and Support Vector Machine Classifier. The performance of any machine classifier is dependant on the quality of the parameters that characterize the different groups of galaxies. Our effort is to develop geometric and invariant moment based parameters as input to the machine classifiers instead of the raw pixel data. Such an approach reduces the dimensionality of the classifier considerably, and removes the effects of scaling and rotation, and makes it easier to solve for the unknown parameters in the galaxy classifier. To judge the quality of training and classification we develop the concept of Mathews coefficients for the galaxy classification community. Mathews coefficients are single numbers that quantify classifier performance even with unequal prior probabilities of the classes.

Artificial Neural Networks: A New Approach to Predicting Application Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez, Julie M. Byers; DesJardins, Stephen L.

2002-01-01

Applied the technique of artificial neural networks to predict which students were likely to apply to one research university. Compared the results to the traditional analysis tool, logistic regression modeling. Found that the addition of artificial intelligence models was a useful new tool for predicting student application behavior. (EV)

Large-Scale Simulations of Plastic Neural Networks on Neuromorphic Hardware

PubMed Central

Knight, James C.; Tully, Philip J.; Kaplan, Bernhard A.; Lansner, Anders; Furber, Steve B.

2016-01-01

SpiNNaker is a digital, neuromorphic architecture designed for simulating large-scale spiking neural networks at speeds close to biological real-time. Rather than using bespoke analog or digital hardware, the basic computational unit of a SpiNNaker system is a general-purpose ARM processor, allowing it to be programmed to simulate a wide variety of neuron and synapse models. This flexibility is particularly valuable in the study of biological plasticity phenomena. A recently proposed learning rule based on the Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) paradigm offers a generic framework for modeling the interaction of different plasticity mechanisms using spiking neurons. However, it can be computationally expensive to simulate large networks with BCPNN learning since it requires multiple state variables for each synapse, each of which needs to be updated every simulation time-step. We discuss the trade-offs in efficiency and accuracy involved in developing an event-based BCPNN implementation for SpiNNaker based on an analytical solution to the BCPNN equations, and detail the steps taken to fit this within the limited computational and memory resources of the SpiNNaker architecture. We demonstrate this learning rule by learning temporal sequences of neural activity within a recurrent attractor network which we simulate at scales of up to 2.0 × 104 neurons and 5.1 × 107 plastic synapses: the largest plastic neural network ever to be simulated on neuromorphic hardware. We also run a comparable simulation on a Cray XC-30 supercomputer system and find that, if it is to match the run-time of our SpiNNaker simulation, the super computer system uses approximately 45× more power. This suggests that cheaper, more power efficient neuromorphic systems are becoming useful discovery tools in the study of plasticity in large-scale brain models. PMID:27092061

Lidar detection of underwater objects using a neuro-SVM-based architecture.

PubMed

Mitra, Vikramjit; Wang, Chia-Jiu; Banerjee, Satarupa

2006-05-01

This paper presents a neural network architecture using a support vector machine (SVM) as an inference engine (IE) for classification of light detection and ranging (Lidar) data. Lidar data gives a sequence of laser backscatter intensities obtained from laser shots generated from an airborne object at various altitudes above the earth surface. Lidar data is pre-filtered to remove high frequency noise. As the Lidar shots are taken from above the earth surface, it has some air backscatter information, which is of no importance for detecting underwater objects. Because of these, the air backscatter information is eliminated from the data and a segment of this data is subsequently selected to extract features for classification. This is then encoded using linear predictive coding (LPC) and polynomial approximation. The coefficients thus generated are used as inputs to the two branches of a parallel neural architecture. The decisions obtained from the two branches are vector multiplied and the result is fed to an SVM-based IE that presents the final inference. Two parallel neural architectures using multilayer perception (MLP) and hybrid radial basis function (HRBF) are considered in this paper. The proposed structure fits the Lidar data classification task well due to the inherent classification efficiency of neural networks and accurate decision-making capability of SVM. A Bayesian classifier and a quadratic classifier were considered for the Lidar data classification task but they failed to offer high prediction accuracy. Furthermore, a single-layered artificial neural network (ANN) classifier was also considered and it failed to offer good accuracy. The parallel ANN architecture proposed in this paper offers high prediction accuracy (98.9%) and is found to be the most suitable architecture for the proposed task of Lidar data classification.

Remote sensing of suspended sediment water research: principles, methods, and progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Ping; Zhang, Jing

2011-12-01

In this paper, we reviewed the principle, data, methods and steps in suspended sediment research by using remote sensing, summed up some representative models and methods, and analyzes the deficiencies of existing methods. Combined with the recent progress of remote sensing theory and application in water suspended sediment research, we introduced in some data processing methods such as atmospheric correction method, adjacent effect correction, and some intelligence algorithms such as neural networks, genetic algorithms, support vector machines into the suspended sediment inversion research, combined with other geographic information, based on Bayesian theory, we improved the suspended sediment inversion precision, and aim to give references to the related researchers.

Application of neural networks and sensitivity analysis to improved prediction of trauma survival.

PubMed

Hunter, A; Kennedy, L; Henry, J; Ferguson, I

2000-05-01

The performance of trauma departments is widely audited by applying predictive models that assess probability of survival, and examining the rate of unexpected survivals and deaths. Although the TRISS methodology, a logistic regression modelling technique, is still the de facto standard, it is known that neural network models perform better. A key issue when applying neural network models is the selection of input variables. This paper proposes a novel form of sensitivity analysis, which is simpler to apply than existing techniques, and can be used for both numeric and nominal input variables. The technique is applied to the audit survival problem, and used to analyse the TRISS variables. The conclusions discuss the implications for the design of further improved scoring schemes and predictive models.

Neural nets on the MPP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hastings, Harold M.; Waner, Stefan

1987-01-01

The Massively Parallel Processor (MPP) is an ideal machine for computer experiments with simulated neural nets as well as more general cellular automata. Experiments using the MPP with a formal model neural network are described. The results on problem mapping and computational efficiency apply equally well to the neural nets of Hopfield, Hinton et al., and Geman and Geman.

Bayesian population receptive field modelling.

PubMed

Zeidman, Peter; Silson, Edward Harry; Schwarzkopf, Dietrich Samuel; Baker, Chris Ian; Penny, Will

2017-09-08

We introduce a probabilistic (Bayesian) framework and associated software toolbox for mapping population receptive fields (pRFs) based on fMRI data. This generic approach is intended to work with stimuli of any dimension and is demonstrated and validated in the context of 2D retinotopic mapping. The framework enables the experimenter to specify generative (encoding) models of fMRI timeseries, in which experimental stimuli enter a pRF model of neural activity, which in turns drives a nonlinear model of neurovascular coupling and Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent (BOLD) response. The neuronal and haemodynamic parameters are estimated together on a voxel-by-voxel or region-of-interest basis using a Bayesian estimation algorithm (variational Laplace). This offers several novel contributions to receptive field modelling. The variance/covariance of parameters are estimated, enabling receptive fields to be plotted while properly representing uncertainty about pRF size and location. Variability in the haemodynamic response across the brain is accounted for. Furthermore, the framework introduces formal hypothesis testing to pRF analysis, enabling competing models to be evaluated based on their log model evidence (approximated by the variational free energy), which represents the optimal tradeoff between accuracy and complexity. Using simulations and empirical data, we found that parameters typically used to represent pRF size and neuronal scaling are strongly correlated, which is taken into account by the Bayesian methods we describe when making inferences. We used the framework to compare the evidence for six variants of pRF model using 7 T functional MRI data and we found a circular Difference of Gaussians (DoG) model to be the best explanation for our data overall. We hope this framework will prove useful for mapping stimulus spaces with any number of dimensions onto the anatomy of the brain. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new prior for bayesian anomaly detection: application to biosurveillance.

PubMed

Shen, Y; Cooper, G F

2010-01-01

Bayesian anomaly detection computes posterior probabilities of anomalous events by combining prior beliefs and evidence from data. However, the specification of prior probabilities can be challenging. This paper describes a Bayesian prior in the context of disease outbreak detection. The goal is to provide a meaningful, easy-to-use prior that yields a posterior probability of an outbreak that performs at least as well as a standard frequentist approach. If this goal is achieved, the resulting posterior could be usefully incorporated into a decision analysis about how to act in light of a possible disease outbreak. This paper describes a Bayesian method for anomaly detection that combines learning from data with a semi-informative prior probability over patterns of anomalous events. A univariate version of the algorithm is presented here for ease of illustration of the essential ideas. The paper describes the algorithm in the context of disease-outbreak detection, but it is general and can be used in other anomaly detection applications. For this application, the semi-informative prior specifies that an increased count over baseline is expected for the variable being monitored, such as the number of respiratory chief complaints per day at a given emergency department. The semi-informative prior is derived based on the baseline prior, which is estimated from using historical data. The evaluation reported here used semi-synthetic data to evaluate the detection performance of the proposed Bayesian method and a control chart method, which is a standard frequentist algorithm that is closest to the Bayesian method in terms of the type of data it uses. The disease-outbreak detection performance of the Bayesian method was statistically significantly better than that of the control chart method when proper baseline periods were used to estimate the baseline behavior to avoid seasonal effects. When using longer baseline periods, the Bayesian method performed as well as the control chart method. The time complexity of the Bayesian algorithm is linear in the number of the observed events being monitored, due to a novel, closed-form derivation that is introduced in the paper. This paper introduces a novel prior probability for Bayesian outbreak detection that is expressive, easy-to-apply, computationally efficient, and performs as well or better than a standard frequentist method.

Neglected chaos in international stock markets: Bayesian analysis of the joint return-volatility dynamical system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsionas, Mike G.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.

2017-09-01

We use a novel Bayesian inference procedure for the Lyapunov exponent in the dynamical system of returns and their unobserved volatility. In the dynamical system, computation of largest Lyapunov exponent by traditional methods is impossible as the stochastic nature has to be taken explicitly into account due to unobserved volatility. We apply the new techniques to daily stock return data for a group of six countries, namely USA, UK, Switzerland, Netherlands, Germany and France, from 2003 to 2014, by means of Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. The evidence points to the direction that there is indeed noisy chaos both before and after the recent financial crisis. However, when a much simpler model is examined where the interaction between returns and volatility is not taken into consideration jointly, the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics does not receive much support by the data ("neglected chaos").

Data Envelopment Analysis in the Presence of Measurement Error: Case Study from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators® (NDNQI®)

PubMed Central

Gajewski, Byron J.; Lee, Robert; Dunton, Nancy

2012-01-01

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is the most commonly used approach for evaluating healthcare efficiency (Hollingsworth, 2008), but a long-standing concern is that DEA assumes that data are measured without error. This is quite unlikely, and DEA and other efficiency analysis techniques may yield biased efficiency estimates if it is not realized (Gajewski, Lee, Bott, Piamjariyakul and Taunton, 2009; Ruggiero, 2004). We propose to address measurement error systematically using a Bayesian method (Bayesian DEA). We will apply Bayesian DEA to data from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators® (NDNQI®) to estimate nursing units’ efficiency. Several external reliability studies inform the posterior distribution of the measurement error on the DEA variables. We will discuss the case of generalizing the approach to situations where an external reliability study is not feasible. PMID:23328796

Bayesian historical earthquake relocation: an example from the 1909 Taipei earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minson, Sarah E.; Lee, William H.K.

2014-01-01

Locating earthquakes from the beginning of the modern instrumental period is complicated by the fact that there are few good-quality seismograms and what traveltimes do exist may be corrupted by both large phase-pick errors and clock errors. Here, we outline a Bayesian approach to simultaneous inference of not only the hypocentre location but also the clock errors at each station and the origin time of the earthquake. This methodology improves the solution for the source location and also provides an uncertainty analysis on all of the parameters included in the inversion. As an example, we applied this Bayesian approach to the well-studied 1909 Mw 7 Taipei earthquake. While our epicentre location and origin time for the 1909 Taipei earthquake are consistent with earlier studies, our focal depth is significantly shallower suggesting a higher seismic hazard to the populous Taipei metropolitan area than previously supposed.

Sequential Designs Based on Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification in Sparse Representation Surrogate Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Ray -Bing; Wang, Weichung; Jeff Wu, C. F.

A numerical method, called OBSM, was recently proposed which employs overcomplete basis functions to achieve sparse representations. While the method can handle non-stationary response without the need of inverting large covariance matrices, it lacks the capability to quantify uncertainty in predictions. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach which first imposes a normal prior on the large space of linear coefficients, then applies the MCMC algorithm to generate posterior samples for predictions. From these samples, Bayesian credible intervals can then be obtained to assess prediction uncertainty. A key application for the proposed method is the efficient construction ofmore » sequential designs. Several sequential design procedures with different infill criteria are proposed based on the generated posterior samples. As a result, numerical studies show that the proposed schemes are capable of solving problems of positive point identification, optimization, and surrogate fitting.« less

Approximate Bayesian computation for spatial SEIR(S) epidemic models.

PubMed

Brown, Grant D; Porter, Aaron T; Oleson, Jacob J; Hinman, Jessica A

2018-02-01

Approximate Bayesia n Computation (ABC) provides an attractive approach to estimation in complex Bayesian inferential problems for which evaluation of the kernel of the posterior distribution is impossible or computationally expensive. These highly parallelizable techniques have been successfully applied to many fields, particularly in cases where more traditional approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are impractical. In this work, we demonstrate the application of approximate Bayesian inference to spatially heterogeneous Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) stochastic epidemic models. These models have a tractable posterior distribution, however MCMC techniques nevertheless become computationally infeasible for moderately sized problems. We discuss the practical implementation of these techniques via the open source ABSEIR package for R. The performance of ABC relative to traditional MCMC methods in a small problem is explored under simulation, as well as in the spatially heterogeneous context of the 2014 epidemic of Chikungunya in the Americas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Sohanur

2017-12-01

Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

Research on Bayes matting algorithm based on Gaussian mixture model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quan, Wei; Jiang, Shan; Han, Cheng; Zhang, Chao; Jiang, Zhengang

2015-12-01

The digital matting problem is a classical problem of imaging. It aims at separating non-rectangular foreground objects from a background image, and compositing with a new background image. Accurate matting determines the quality of the compositing image. A Bayesian matting Algorithm Based on Gaussian Mixture Model is proposed to solve this matting problem. Firstly, the traditional Bayesian framework is improved by introducing Gaussian mixture model. Then, a weighting factor is added in order to suppress the noises of the compositing images. Finally, the effect is further improved by regulating the user's input. This algorithm is applied to matting jobs of classical images. The results are compared to the traditional Bayesian method. It is shown that our algorithm has better performance in detail such as hair. Our algorithm eliminates the noise well. And it is very effectively in dealing with the kind of work, such as interested objects with intricate boundaries.

Application of Bayesian model averaging to measurements of the primordial power spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, David; Liddle, Andrew R.

2010-11-01

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for assessing parameter uncertainties in situations where there is also uncertainty in the underlying model. We apply model averaging to the estimation of the parameters associated with the primordial power spectra of curvature and tensor perturbations. We use CosmoNest and MultiNest to compute the model evidences and posteriors, using cosmic microwave data from WMAP, ACBAR, BOOMERanG, and CBI, plus large-scale structure data from the SDSS DR7. We find that the model-averaged 95% credible interval for the spectral index using all of the data is 0.940

A new method for E-government procurement using collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuai; Xi, Chengyu; Wang, Yan; Zhang, Wenyu; Chen, Yanhong

2013-01-01

Nowadays, as the Internet services increase faster than ever before, government systems are reinvented as E-government services. Therefore, government procurement sectors have to face challenges brought by the explosion of service information. This paper presents a novel method for E-government procurement (eGP) to search for the optimal procurement scheme (OPS). Item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach are used to evaluate and select the candidate services to get the top-M recommendations such that the involved computation load can be alleviated. A trapezoidal fuzzy number similarity algorithm is applied to support the item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach, since some of the services' attributes can be hardly expressed as certain and static values but only be easily represented as fuzzy values. A prototype system is built and validated with an illustrative example from eGP to confirm the feasibility of our approach.

A New Method for E-Government Procurement Using Collaborative Filtering and Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Wang, Yan

2013-01-01

Nowadays, as the Internet services increase faster than ever before, government systems are reinvented as E-government services. Therefore, government procurement sectors have to face challenges brought by the explosion of service information. This paper presents a novel method for E-government procurement (eGP) to search for the optimal procurement scheme (OPS). Item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach are used to evaluate and select the candidate services to get the top-M recommendations such that the involved computation load can be alleviated. A trapezoidal fuzzy number similarity algorithm is applied to support the item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach, since some of the services' attributes can be hardly expressed as certain and static values but only be easily represented as fuzzy values. A prototype system is built and validated with an illustrative example from eGP to confirm the feasibility of our approach. PMID:24385869

Applying Bayesian belief networks in rapid response situations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gibson, William L; Deborah, Leishman, A.; Van Eeckhout, Edward

2008-01-01

The authors have developed an enhanced Bayesian analysis tool called the Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) for monitoring and surveillance. The enhancements are suited for Rapid Response Situations where decisions must be made based on uncertain and incomplete evidence from many diverse and heterogeneous sources. The enhancements extend the probabilistic results of the traditional Bayesian analysis by (1) better quantifying uncertainty arising from model parameter uncertainty and uncertain evidence, (2) optimizing the collection of evidence to reach conclusions more quickly, and (3) allowing the analyst to determine the influence of the remaining evidence that cannot be obtained in the time allowed.more » These extended features give the analyst and decision maker a better comprehension of the adequacy of the acquired evidence and hence the quality of the hurried decisions. They also describe two example systems where the above features are highlighted.« less

Modular analysis of the probabilistic genetic interaction network.

PubMed

Hou, Lin; Wang, Lin; Qian, Minping; Li, Dong; Tang, Chao; Zhu, Yunping; Deng, Minghua; Li, Fangting

2011-03-15

Epistatic Miniarray Profiles (EMAP) has enabled the mapping of large-scale genetic interaction networks; however, the quantitative information gained from EMAP cannot be fully exploited since the data are usually interpreted as a discrete network based on an arbitrary hard threshold. To address such limitations, we adopted a mixture modeling procedure to construct a probabilistic genetic interaction network and then implemented a Bayesian approach to identify densely interacting modules in the probabilistic network. Mixture modeling has been demonstrated as an effective soft-threshold technique of EMAP measures. The Bayesian approach was applied to an EMAP dataset studying the early secretory pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Twenty-seven modules were identified, and 14 of those were enriched by gold standard functional gene sets. We also conducted a detailed comparison with state-of-the-art algorithms, hierarchical cluster and Markov clustering. The experimental results show that the Bayesian approach outperforms others in efficiently recovering biologically significant modules.

Sequential Designs Based on Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification in Sparse Representation Surrogate Modeling

DOE PAGES

Chen, Ray -Bing; Wang, Weichung; Jeff Wu, C. F.

2017-04-12

A numerical method, called OBSM, was recently proposed which employs overcomplete basis functions to achieve sparse representations. While the method can handle non-stationary response without the need of inverting large covariance matrices, it lacks the capability to quantify uncertainty in predictions. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach which first imposes a normal prior on the large space of linear coefficients, then applies the MCMC algorithm to generate posterior samples for predictions. From these samples, Bayesian credible intervals can then be obtained to assess prediction uncertainty. A key application for the proposed method is the efficient construction ofmore » sequential designs. Several sequential design procedures with different infill criteria are proposed based on the generated posterior samples. As a result, numerical studies show that the proposed schemes are capable of solving problems of positive point identification, optimization, and surrogate fitting.« less

Convolutional neural networks applied to neutrino events in a liquid argon time projection chamber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acciarri, R.; Adams, C.; An, R.; Asaadi, J.; Auger, M.; Bagby, L.; Baller, B.; Barr, G.; Bass, M.; Bay, F.; Bishai, M.; Blake, A.; Bolton, T.; Bugel, L.; Camilleri, L.; Caratelli, D.; Carls, B.; Castillo Fernandez, R.; Cavanna, F.; Chen, H.; Church, E.; Cianci, D.; Collin, G. H.; Conrad, J. M.; Convery, M.; Crespo-Anadón, J. I.; Del Tutto, M.; Devitt, D.; Dytman, S.; Eberly, B.; Ereditato, A.; Escudero Sanchez, L.; Esquivel, J.; Fleming, B. T.; Foreman, W.; Furmanski, A. P.; Garvey, G. T.; Genty, V.; Goeldi, D.; Gollapinni, S.; Graf, N.; Gramellini, E.; Greenlee, H.; Grosso, R.; Guenette, R.; Hackenburg, A.; Hamilton, P.; Hen, O.; Hewes, J.; Hill, C.; Ho, J.; Horton-Smith, G.; James, C.; de Vries, J. Jan; Jen, C.-M.; Jiang, L.; Johnson, R. A.; Jones, B. J. P.; Joshi, J.; Jostlein, H.; Kaleko, D.; Karagiorgi, G.; Ketchum, W.; Kirby, B.; Kirby, M.; Kobilarcik, T.; Kreslo, I.; Laube, A.; Li, Y.; Lister, A.; Littlejohn, B. R.; Lockwitz, S.; Lorca, D.; Louis, W. C.; Luethi, M.; Lundberg, B.; Luo, X.; Marchionni, A.; Mariani, C.; Marshall, J.; Martinez Caicedo, D. A.; Meddage, V.; Miceli, T.; Mills, G. B.; Moon, J.; Mooney, M.; Moore, C. D.; Mousseau, J.; Murrells, R.; Naples, D.; Nienaber, P.; Nowak, J.; Palamara, O.; Paolone, V.; Papavassiliou, V.; Pate, S. F.; Pavlovic, Z.; Porzio, D.; Pulliam, G.; Qian, X.; Raaf, J. L.; Rafique, A.; Rochester, L.; von Rohr, C. Rudolf; Russell, B.; Schmitz, D. W.; Schukraft, A.; Seligman, W.; Shaevitz, M. H.; Sinclair, J.; Snider, E. L.; Soderberg, M.; Söldner-Rembold, S.; Soleti, S. R.; Spentzouris, P.; Spitz, J.; St. John, J.; Strauss, T.; Szelc, A. M.; Tagg, N.; Terao, K.; Thomson, M.; Toups, M.; Tsai, Y.-T.; Tufanli, S.; Usher, T.; Van de Water, R. G.; Viren, B.; Weber, M.; Weston, J.; Wickremasinghe, D. A.; Wolbers, S.; Wongjirad, T.; Woodruff, K.; Yang, T.; Zeller, G. P.; Zennamo, J.; Zhang, C.

2017-03-01

We present several studies of convolutional neural networks applied to data coming from the MicroBooNE detector, a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). The algorithms studied include the classification of single particle images, the localization of single particle and neutrino interactions in an image, and the detection of a simulated neutrino event overlaid with cosmic ray backgrounds taken from real detector data. These studies demonstrate the potential of convolutional neural networks for particle identification or event detection on simulated neutrino interactions. We also address technical issues that arise when applying this technique to data from a large LArTPC at or near ground level.

Application of artificial neural networks with backpropagation technique in the financial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, Jitendra Kumar; Das, Raja

2017-11-01

The propensity of applying neural networks has been proliferated in multiple disciplines for research activities since the past recent decades because of its powerful control with regulatory parameters for pattern recognition and classification. It is also being widely applied for forecasting in the numerous divisions. Since financial data have been readily available due to the involvement of computers and computing systems in the stock market premises throughout the world, researchers have also developed numerous techniques and algorithms to analyze the data from this sector. In this paper we have applied neural network with backpropagation technique to find the data pattern from finance section and prediction for stock values as well.

A Bayesian approach for convex combination of two Gumbel-Barnett copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, M.; González-López, V. A.

2013-10-01

In this paper it was applied a new Bayesian approach to model the dependence between two variables of interest in public policy: "Gonorrhea Rates per 100,000 Population" and "400% Federal Poverty Level and over" with a small number of paired observations (one pair for each U.S. state). We use a mixture of Gumbel-Barnett copulas suitable to represent situations with weak and negative dependence, which is the case treated here. The methodology allows even making a prediction of the dependence between the variables from one year to another, showing whether there was any alteration in the dependence.

Bayesian transformation cure frailty models with multivariate failure time data.

PubMed

Yin, Guosheng

2008-12-10

We propose a class of transformation cure frailty models to accommodate a survival fraction in multivariate failure time data. Established through a general power transformation, this family of cure frailty models includes the proportional hazards and the proportional odds modeling structures as two special cases. Within the Bayesian paradigm, we obtain the joint posterior distribution and the corresponding full conditional distributions of the model parameters for the implementation of Gibbs sampling. Model selection is based on the conditional predictive ordinate statistic and deviance information criterion. As an illustration, we apply the proposed method to a real data set from dentistry.

Bayesian estimation of realized stochastic volatility model by Hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2014-03-01

The hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm (HMCA) is applied for Bayesian parameter estimation of the realized stochastic volatility (RSV) model. Using the 2nd order minimum norm integrator (2MNI) for the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation in the HMCA, we find that the 2MNI is more efficient than the conventional leapfrog integrator. We also find that the autocorrelation time of the volatility variables sampled by the HMCA is very short. Thus it is concluded that the HMCA with the 2MNI is an efficient algorithm for parameter estimations of the RSV model.

Diagnostics for insufficiencies of posterior calculations in Bayesian signal inference.

PubMed

Dorn, Sebastian; Oppermann, Niels; Ensslin, Torsten A

2013-11-01

We present an error-diagnostic validation method for posterior distributions in Bayesian signal inference, an advancement of a previous work. It transfers deviations from the correct posterior into characteristic deviations from a uniform distribution of a quantity constructed for this purpose. We show that this method is able to reveal and discriminate several kinds of numerical and approximation errors, as well as their impact on the posterior distribution. For this we present four typical analytical examples of posteriors with incorrect variance, skewness, position of the maximum, or normalization. We show further how this test can be applied to multidimensional signals.

Advances in Artificial Neural Networks - Methodological Development and Application

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Artificial neural networks as a major soft-computing technology have been extensively studied and applied during the last three decades. Research on backpropagation training algorithms for multilayer perceptron networks has spurred development of other neural network training algorithms for other ne...

Bayesian approach to estimate AUC, partition coefficient and drug targeting index for studies with serial sacrifice design.

PubMed

Wang, Tianli; Baron, Kyle; Zhong, Wei; Brundage, Richard; Elmquist, William

2014-03-01

The current study presents a Bayesian approach to non-compartmental analysis (NCA), which provides the accurate and precise estimate of AUC 0 (∞) and any AUC 0 (∞) -based NCA parameter or derivation. In order to assess the performance of the proposed method, 1,000 simulated datasets were generated in different scenarios. A Bayesian method was used to estimate the tissue and plasma AUC 0 (∞) s and the tissue-to-plasma AUC 0 (∞) ratio. The posterior medians and the coverage of 95% credible intervals for the true parameter values were examined. The method was applied to laboratory data from a mice brain distribution study with serial sacrifice design for illustration. Bayesian NCA approach is accurate and precise in point estimation of the AUC 0 (∞) and the partition coefficient under a serial sacrifice design. It also provides a consistently good variance estimate, even considering the variability of the data and the physiological structure of the pharmacokinetic model. The application in the case study obtained a physiologically reasonable posterior distribution of AUC, with a posterior median close to the value estimated by classic Bailer-type methods. This Bayesian NCA approach for sparse data analysis provides statistical inference on the variability of AUC 0 (∞) -based parameters such as partition coefficient and drug targeting index, so that the comparison of these parameters following destructive sampling becomes statistically feasible.

Finite‐fault Bayesian inversion of teleseismic body waves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clayton, Brandon; Hartzell, Stephen; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Minson, Sarah E.

2017-01-01

Inverting geophysical data has provided fundamental information about the behavior of earthquake rupture. However, inferring kinematic source model parameters for finite‐fault ruptures is an intrinsically underdetermined problem (the problem of nonuniqueness), because we are restricted to finite noisy observations. Although many studies use least‐squares techniques to make the finite‐fault problem tractable, these methods generally lack the ability to apply non‐Gaussian error analysis and the imposition of nonlinear constraints. However, the Bayesian approach can be employed to find a Gaussian or non‐Gaussian distribution of all probable model parameters, while utilizing nonlinear constraints. We present case studies to quantify the resolving power and associated uncertainties using only teleseismic body waves in a Bayesian framework to infer the slip history for a synthetic case and two earthquakes: the 2011 Mw 7.1 Van, east Turkey, earthquake and the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah, Baja California, earthquake. In implementing the Bayesian method, we further present two distinct solutions to investigate the uncertainties by performing the inversion with and without velocity structure perturbations. We find that the posterior ensemble becomes broader when including velocity structure variability and introduces a spatial smearing of slip. Using the Bayesian framework solely on teleseismic body waves, we find rake is poorly constrained by the observations and rise time is poorly resolved when slip amplitude is low.

Application of Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filter in parameter calibration of groundwater flow model in PingTung Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Shao-Yong; Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2017-04-01

Due to the limited hydrogeological observation data and high levels of uncertainty within, parameter estimation of the groundwater model has been an important issue. There are many methods of parameter estimation, for example, Kalman filter provides a real-time calibration of parameters through measurement of groundwater monitoring wells, related methods such as Extended Kalman Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter are widely applied in groundwater research. However, Kalman Filter method is limited to linearity. This study propose a novel method, Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering, which provides a method that can considers the uncertainty of data in parameter estimation. With this two methods, we can estimate parameter by given hard data (certain) and soft data (uncertain) in the same time. In this study, we use Python and QGIS in groundwater model (MODFLOW) and development of Extended Kalman Filter and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering in Python in parameter estimation. This method may provide a conventional filtering method and also consider the uncertainty of data. This study was conducted through numerical model experiment to explore, combine Bayesian maximum entropy filter and a hypothesis for the architecture of MODFLOW groundwater model numerical estimation. Through the virtual observation wells to simulate and observe the groundwater model periodically. The result showed that considering the uncertainty of data, the Bayesian maximum entropy filter will provide an ideal result of real-time parameters estimation.

Bayesian learning and the psychology of rule induction

PubMed Central

Endress, Ansgar D.

2014-01-01

In recent years, Bayesian learning models have been applied to an increasing variety of domains. While such models have been criticized on theoretical grounds, the underlying assumptions and predictions are rarely made concrete and tested experimentally. Here, I use Frank and Tenenbaum's (2011) Bayesian model of rule-learning as a case study to spell out the underlying assumptions, and to confront them with the empirical results Frank and Tenenbaum (2011) propose to simulate, as well as with novel experiments. While rule-learning is arguably well suited to rational Bayesian approaches, I show that their models are neither psychologically plausible nor ideal observer models. Further, I show that their central assumption is unfounded: humans do not always preferentially learn more specific rules, but, at least in some situations, those rules that happen to be more salient. Even when granting the unsupported assumptions, I show that all of the experiments modeled by Frank and Tenenbaum (2011) either contradict their models, or have a large number of more plausible interpretations. I provide an alternative account of the experimental data based on simple psychological mechanisms, and show that this account both describes the data better, and is easier to falsify. I conclude that, despite the recent surge in Bayesian models of cognitive phenomena, psychological phenomena are best understood by developing and testing psychological theories rather than models that can be fit to virtually any data. PMID:23454791

The Processing of Somatosensory Information Shifts from an Early Parallel into a Serial Processing Mode: A Combined fMRI/MEG Study.

PubMed

Klingner, Carsten M; Brodoehl, Stefan; Huonker, Ralph; Witte, Otto W

2016-01-01

The question regarding whether somatosensory inputs are processed in parallel or in series has not been clearly answered. Several studies that have applied dynamic causal modeling (DCM) to fMRI data have arrived at seemingly divergent conclusions. However, these divergent results could be explained by the hypothesis that the processing route of somatosensory information changes with time. Specifically, we suggest that somatosensory stimuli are processed in parallel only during the early stage, whereas the processing is later dominated by serial processing. This hypothesis was revisited in the present study based on fMRI analyses of tactile stimuli and the application of DCM to magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data collected during sustained (260 ms) tactile stimulation. Bayesian model comparisons were used to infer the processing stream. We demonstrated that the favored processing stream changes over time. We found that the neural activity elicited in the first 100 ms following somatosensory stimuli is best explained by models that support a parallel processing route, whereas a serial processing route is subsequently favored. These results suggest that the secondary somatosensory area (SII) receives information regarding a new stimulus in parallel with the primary somatosensory area (SI), whereas later processing in the SII is dominated by the preprocessed input from the SI.

Application of the intelligent techniques in transplantation databases: a review of articles published in 2009 and 2010.

PubMed

Sousa, F S; Hummel, A D; Maciel, R F; Cohrs, F M; Falcão, A E J; Teixeira, F; Baptista, R; Mancini, F; da Costa, T M; Alves, D; Pisa, I T

2011-05-01

The replacement of defective organs with healthy ones is an old problem, but only a few years ago was this issue put into practice. Improvements in the whole transplantation process have been increasingly important in clinical practice. In this context are clinical decision support systems (CDSSs), which have reflected a significant amount of work to use mathematical and intelligent techniques. The aim of this article was to present consideration of intelligent techniques used in recent years (2009 and 2010) to analyze organ transplant databases. To this end, we performed a search of the PubMed and Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge databases to find articles published in 2009 and 2010 about intelligent techniques applied to transplantation databases. Among 69 retrieved articles, we chose according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. The main techniques were: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Trees (DT), Markov Models (MM), and Bayesian Networks (BN). Most articles used ANN. Some publications described comparisons between techniques or the use of various techniques together. The use of intelligent techniques to extract knowledge from databases of healthcare is increasingly common. Although authors preferred to use ANN, statistical techniques were equally effective for this enterprise. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Processing of Somatosensory Information Shifts from an Early Parallel into a Serial Processing Mode: A Combined fMRI/MEG Study

PubMed Central

Klingner, Carsten M.; Brodoehl, Stefan; Huonker, Ralph; Witte, Otto W.

2016-01-01

The question regarding whether somatosensory inputs are processed in parallel or in series has not been clearly answered. Several studies that have applied dynamic causal modeling (DCM) to fMRI data have arrived at seemingly divergent conclusions. However, these divergent results could be explained by the hypothesis that the processing route of somatosensory information changes with time. Specifically, we suggest that somatosensory stimuli are processed in parallel only during the early stage, whereas the processing is later dominated by serial processing. This hypothesis was revisited in the present study based on fMRI analyses of tactile stimuli and the application of DCM to magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data collected during sustained (260 ms) tactile stimulation. Bayesian model comparisons were used to infer the processing stream. We demonstrated that the favored processing stream changes over time. We found that the neural activity elicited in the first 100 ms following somatosensory stimuli is best explained by models that support a parallel processing route, whereas a serial processing route is subsequently favored. These results suggest that the secondary somatosensory area (SII) receives information regarding a new stimulus in parallel with the primary somatosensory area (SI), whereas later processing in the SII is dominated by the preprocessed input from the SI. PMID:28066197

Pattern recognition for passive polarimetric data using nonparametric classifiers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thilak, Vimal; Saini, Jatinder; Voelz, David G.; Creusere, Charles D.

2005-08-01

Passive polarization based imaging is a useful tool in computer vision and pattern recognition. A passive polarization imaging system forms a polarimetric image from the reflection of ambient light that contains useful information for computer vision tasks such as object detection (classification) and recognition. Applications of polarization based pattern recognition include material classification and automatic shape recognition. In this paper, we present two target detection algorithms for images captured by a passive polarimetric imaging system. The proposed detection algorithms are based on Bayesian decision theory. In these approaches, an object can belong to one of any given number classes and classification involves making decisions that minimize the average probability of making incorrect decisions. This minimum is achieved by assigning an object to the class that maximizes the a posteriori probability. Computing a posteriori probabilities requires estimates of class conditional probability density functions (likelihoods) and prior probabilities. A Probabilistic neural network (PNN), which is a nonparametric method that can compute Bayes optimal boundaries, and a -nearest neighbor (KNN) classifier, is used for density estimation and classification. The proposed algorithms are applied to polarimetric image data gathered in the laboratory with a liquid crystal-based system. The experimental results validate the effectiveness of the above algorithms for target detection from polarimetric data.

Blind source computer device identification from recorded VoIP calls for forensic investigation.

PubMed

Jahanirad, Mehdi; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Wahab, Ainuddin Wahid Abdul

2017-03-01

The VoIP services provide fertile ground for criminal activity, thus identifying the transmitting computer devices from recorded VoIP call may help the forensic investigator to reveal useful information. It also proves the authenticity of the call recording submitted to the court as evidence. This paper extended the previous study on the use of recorded VoIP call for blind source computer device identification. Although initial results were promising but theoretical reasoning for this is yet to be found. The study suggested computing entropy of mel-frequency cepstrum coefficients (entropy-MFCC) from near-silent segments as an intrinsic feature set that captures the device response function due to the tolerances in the electronic components of individual computer devices. By applying the supervised learning techniques of naïve Bayesian, linear logistic regression, neural networks and support vector machines to the entropy-MFCC features, state-of-the-art identification accuracy of near 99.9% has been achieved on different sets of computer devices for both call recording and microphone recording scenarios. Furthermore, unsupervised learning techniques, including simple k-means, expectation-maximization and density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) provided promising results for call recording dataset by assigning the majority of instances to their correct clusters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data mining and computationally intensive methods: summary of Group 7 contributions to Genetic Analysis Workshop 13.

PubMed

Costello, Tracy J; Falk, Catherine T; Ye, Kenny Q

2003-01-01

The Framingham Heart Study data, as well as a related simulated data set, were generously provided to the participants of the Genetic Analysis Workshop 13 in order that newly developed and emerging statistical methodologies could be tested on that well-characterized data set. The impetus driving the development of novel methods is to elucidate the contributions of genes, environment, and interactions between and among them, as well as to allow comparison between and validation of methods. The seven papers that comprise this group used data-mining methodologies (tree-based methods, neural networks, discriminant analysis, and Bayesian variable selection) in an attempt to identify the underlying genetics of cardiovascular disease and related traits in the presence of environmental and genetic covariates. Data-mining strategies are gaining popularity because they are extremely flexible and may have greater efficiency and potential in identifying the factors involved in complex disorders. While the methods grouped together here constitute a diverse collection, some papers asked similar questions with very different methods, while others used the same underlying methodology to ask very different questions. This paper briefly describes the data-mining methodologies applied to the Genetic Analysis Workshop 13 data sets and the results of those investigations. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Fuzzy Naive Bayesian model for medical diagnostic decision support.

PubMed

Wagholikar, Kavishwar B; Vijayraghavan, Sundararajan; Deshpande, Ashok W

2009-01-01

This work relates to the development of computational algorithms to provide decision support to physicians. The authors propose a Fuzzy Naive Bayesian (FNB) model for medical diagnosis, which extends the Fuzzy Bayesian approach proposed by Okuda. A physician's interview based method is described to define a orthogonal fuzzy symptom information system, required to apply the model. For the purpose of elaboration and elicitation of characteristics, the algorithm is applied to a simple simulated dataset, and compared with conventional Naive Bayes (NB) approach. As a preliminary evaluation of FNB in real world scenario, the comparison is repeated on a real fuzzy dataset of 81 patients diagnosed with infectious diseases. The case study on simulated dataset elucidates that FNB can be optimal over NB for diagnosing patients with imprecise-fuzzy information, on account of the following characteristics - 1) it can model the information that, values of some attributes are semantically closer than values of other attributes, and 2) it offers a mechanism to temper exaggerations in patient information. Although the algorithm requires precise training data, its utility for fuzzy training data is argued for. This is supported by the case study on infectious disease dataset, which indicates optimality of FNB over NB for the infectious disease domain. Further case studies on large datasets are required to establish utility of FNB.

A Bayesian perspective on Markovian dynamics and the fluctuation theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virgo, Nathaniel

2013-08-01

One of E. T. Jaynes' most important achievements was to derive statistical mechanics from the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method. I re-examine a relatively new result in statistical mechanics, the Evans-Searles fluctuation theorem, from a MaxEnt perspective. This is done in the belief that interpreting such results in Bayesian terms will lead to new advances in statistical physics. The version of the fluctuation theorem that I will discuss applies to discrete, stochastic systems that begin in a non-equilibrium state and relax toward equilibrium. I will show that for such systems the fluctuation theorem can be seen as a consequence of the fact that the equilibrium distribution must obey the property of detailed balance. Although the principle of detailed balance applies only to equilibrium ensembles, it puts constraints on the form of non-equilibrium trajectories. This will be made clear by taking a novel kind of Bayesian perspective, in which the equilibrium distribution is seen as a prior over the system's set of possible trajectories. Non-equilibrium ensembles are calculated from this prior using Bayes' theorem, with the initial conditions playing the role of the data. I will also comment on the implications of this perspective for the question of how to derive the second law.

Observations and Bayesian location methodology of transient acoustic signals (likely blue whales) in the Indian Ocean, using a hydrophone triplet.

PubMed

Le Bras, Ronan J; Kuzma, Heidi; Sucic, Victor; Bokelmann, Götz

2016-05-01

A notable sequence of calls was encountered, spanning several days in January 2003, in the central part of the Indian Ocean on a hydrophone triplet recording acoustic data at a 250 Hz sampling rate. This paper presents signal processing methods applied to the waveform data to detect, group, extract amplitude and bearing estimates for the recorded signals. An approximate location for the source of the sequence of calls is inferred from extracting the features from the waveform. As the source approaches the hydrophone triplet, the source level (SL) of the calls is estimated at 187 ± 6 dB re: 1 μPa-1 m in the 15-60 Hz frequency range. The calls are attributed to a subgroup of blue whales, Balaenoptera musculus, with a characteristic acoustic signature. A Bayesian location method using probabilistic models for bearing and amplitude is demonstrated on the calls sequence. The method is applied to the case of detection at a single triad of hydrophones and results in a probability distribution map for the origin of the calls. It can be extended to detections at multiple triads and because of the Bayesian formulation, additional modeling complexity can be built-in as needed.

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandhu, Rimple; Poirel, Dominique; Pettit, Chris; Khalil, Mohammad; Sarkar, Abhijit

2016-07-01

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid-structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic system leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib-Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandhu, Rimple; Poirel, Dominique; Pettit, Chris

2016-07-01

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid–structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic systemmore » leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib–Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.« less

Profile-Based LC-MS Data Alignment—A Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Tsai, Tsung-Heng; Tadesse, Mahlet G.; Wang, Yue; Ressom, Habtom W.

2014-01-01

A Bayesian alignment model (BAM) is proposed for alignment of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) data. BAM belongs to the category of profile-based approaches, which are composed of two major components: a prototype function and a set of mapping functions. Appropriate estimation of these functions is crucial for good alignment results. BAM uses Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to draw inference on the model parameters and improves on existing MCMC-based alignment methods through 1) the implementation of an efficient MCMC sampler and 2) an adaptive selection of knots. A block Metropolis-Hastings algorithm that mitigates the problem of the MCMC sampler getting stuck at local modes of the posterior distribution is used for the update of the mapping function coefficients. In addition, a stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) methodology is used to determine the number and positions of knots. We applied BAM to a simulated data set, an LC-MS proteomic data set, and two LC-MS metabolomic data sets, and compared its performance with the Bayesian hierarchical curve registration (BHCR) model, the dynamic time-warping (DTW) model, and the continuous profile model (CPM). The advantage of applying appropriate profile-based retention time correction prior to performing a feature-based approach is also demonstrated through the metabolomic data sets. PMID:23929872

Assessing Local Model Adequacy in Bayesian Hierarchical Models Using the Partitioned Deviance Information Criterion

PubMed Central

Wheeler, David C.; Hickson, DeMarc A.; Waller, Lance A.

2010-01-01

Many diagnostic tools and goodness-of-fit measures, such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian deviance information criterion (DIC), are available to evaluate the overall adequacy of linear regression models. In addition, visually assessing adequacy in models has become an essential part of any regression analysis. In this paper, we focus on a spatial consideration of the local DIC measure for model selection and goodness-of-fit evaluation. We use a partitioning of the DIC into the local DIC, leverage, and deviance residuals to assess local model fit and influence for both individual observations and groups of observations in a Bayesian framework. We use visualization of the local DIC and differences in local DIC between models to assist in model selection and to visualize the global and local impacts of adding covariates or model parameters. We demonstrate the utility of the local DIC in assessing model adequacy using HIV prevalence data from pregnant women in the Butare province of Rwanda during 1989-1993 using a range of linear model specifications, from global effects only to spatially varying coefficient models, and a set of covariates related to sexual behavior. Results of applying the diagnostic visualization approach include more refined model selection and greater understanding of the models as applied to the data. PMID:21243121

Comparison of Neural Networks and Tabular Nearest Neighbor Encoding for Hyperspectral Signature Classification in Unresolved Object Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmalz, M.; Ritter, G.; Key, R.

Accurate and computationally efficient spectral signature classification is a crucial step in the nonimaging detection and recognition of spaceborne objects. In classical hyperspectral recognition applications using linear mixing models, signature classification accuracy depends on accurate spectral endmember discrimination [1]. If the endmembers cannot be classified correctly, then the signatures cannot be classified correctly, and object recognition from hyperspectral data will be inaccurate. In practice, the number of endmembers accurately classified often depends linearly on the number of inputs. This can lead to potentially severe classification errors in the presence of noise or densely interleaved signatures. In this paper, we present an comparison of emerging technologies for nonimaging spectral signature classfication based on a highly accurate, efficient search engine called Tabular Nearest Neighbor Encoding (TNE) [3,4] and a neural network technology called Morphological Neural Networks (MNNs) [5]. Based on prior results, TNE can optimize its classifier performance to track input nonergodicities, as well as yield measures of confidence or caution for evaluation of classification results. Unlike neural networks, TNE does not have a hidden intermediate data structure (e.g., the neural net weight matrix). Instead, TNE generates and exploits a user-accessible data structure called the agreement map (AM), which can be manipulated by Boolean logic operations to effect accurate classifier refinement algorithms. The open architecture and programmability of TNE's agreement map processing allows a TNE programmer or user to determine classification accuracy, as well as characterize in detail the signatures for which TNE did not obtain classification matches, and why such mis-matches occurred. In this study, we will compare TNE and MNN based endmember classification, using performance metrics such as probability of correct classification (Pd) and rate of false detections (Rfa). As proof of principle, we analyze classification of multiple closely spaced signatures from a NASA database of space material signatures. Additional analysis pertains to computational complexity and noise sensitivity, which are superior to Bayesian techniques based on classical neural networks. [1] Winter, M.E. "Fast autonomous spectral end-member determination in hyperspectral data," in Proceedings of the 13th International Conference On Applied Geologic Remote Sensing, Vancouver, B.C., Canada, pp. 337-44 (1999). [2] N. Keshava, "A survey of spectral unmixing algorithms," Lincoln Laboratory Journal 14:55-78 (2003). [3] Key, G., M.S. SCHMALZ, F.M. Caimi, and G.X. Ritter. "Performance analysis of tabular nearest neighbor encoding algorithm for joint compression and ATR", in Proceedings SPIE 3814:115-126 (1999). [4] Schmalz, M.S. and G. Key. "Algorithms for hyperspectral signature classification in unresolved object detection using tabular nearest neighbor encoding" in Proceedings of the 2007 AMOS Conference, Maui HI (2007). [5] Ritter, G.X., G. Urcid, and M.S. Schmalz. "Autonomous single-pass endmember approximation using lattice auto-associative memories", Neurocomputing (Elsevier), accepted (June 2008).

Fast neural solution of a nonlinear wave equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toomarian, Nikzad; Barhen, Jacob

1992-01-01

A neural algorithm for rapidly simulating a certain class of nonlinear wave phenomena using analog VLSI neural hardware is presented and applied to the Korteweg-de Vries partial differential equation. The corresponding neural architecture is obtained from a pseudospectral representation of the spatial dependence, along with a leap-frog scheme for the temporal evolution. Numerical simulations demonstrated the robustness of the proposed approach.

Evolution and Optimality of Similar Neural Mechanisms for Perception and Action during Search

PubMed Central

Zhang, Sheng; Eckstein, Miguel P.

2010-01-01

A prevailing theory proposes that the brain's two visual pathways, the ventral and dorsal, lead to differing visual processing and world representations for conscious perception than those for action. Others have claimed that perception and action share much of their visual processing. But which of these two neural architectures is favored by evolution? Successful visual search is life-critical and here we investigate the evolution and optimality of neural mechanisms mediating perception and eye movement actions for visual search in natural images. We implement an approximation to the ideal Bayesian searcher with two separate processing streams, one controlling the eye movements and the other stream determining the perceptual search decisions. We virtually evolved the neural mechanisms of the searchers' two separate pathways built from linear combinations of primary visual cortex receptive fields (V1) by making the simulated individuals' probability of survival depend on the perceptual accuracy finding targets in cluttered backgrounds. We find that for a variety of targets, backgrounds, and dependence of target detectability on retinal eccentricity, the mechanisms of the searchers' two processing streams converge to similar representations showing that mismatches in the mechanisms for perception and eye movements lead to suboptimal search. Three exceptions which resulted in partial or no convergence were a case of an organism for which the targets are equally detectable across the retina, an organism with sufficient time to foveate all possible target locations, and a strict two-pathway model with no interconnections and differential pre-filtering based on parvocellular and magnocellular lateral geniculate cell properties. Thus, similar neural mechanisms for perception and eye movement actions during search are optimal and should be expected from the effects of natural selection on an organism with limited time to search for food that is not equi-detectable across its retina and interconnected perception and action neural pathways. PMID:20838589

Applying Neural Networks to Air Force Personnel Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-03-01

Asakawa, Yoda, and Takeoka (1990); Atlas, Cole, Conner, EI-Sharkawi, Marks, Muthusamy, and Barnard (1990); Leung and Zue (1989); and Denker, Gardner...Transactions on Neural Networks, 1(2), 239-242. Kimoto, T., Asakawa, K., Yoda, M., & Takeoka , M. (1990). Stock market prediction with modular neural

Estimation of spatially varying heat transfer coefficient from a flat plate with flush mounted heat sources using Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakkareddy, Pradeep S.; Balaji, C.

2016-09-01

This paper employs the Bayesian based Metropolis Hasting - Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to solve inverse heat transfer problem of determining the spatially varying heat transfer coefficient from a flat plate with flush mounted discrete heat sources with measured temperatures at the bottom of the plate. The Nusselt number is assumed to be of the form Nu = aReb(x/l)c . To input reasonable values of ’a’ and ‘b’ into the inverse problem, first limited two dimensional conjugate convection simulations were done with Comsol. Based on the guidance from this different values of ‘a’ and ‘b’ are input to a computationally less complex problem of conjugate conduction in the flat plate (15mm thickness) and temperature distributions at the bottom of the plate which is a more convenient location for measuring the temperatures without disturbing the flow were obtained. Since the goal of this work is to demonstrate the eficiacy of the Bayesian approach to accurately retrieve ‘a’ and ‘b’, numerically generated temperatures with known values of ‘a’ and ‘b’ are treated as ‘surrogate’ experimental data. The inverse problem is then solved by repeatedly using the forward solutions together with the MH-MCMC aprroach. To speed up the estimation, the forward model is replaced by an artificial neural network. The mean, maximum-a-posteriori and standard deviation of the estimated parameters ‘a’ and ‘b’ are reported. The robustness of the proposed method is examined, by synthetically adding noise to the temperatures.

Multi-angle backscatter classification and sub-bottom profiling for improved seafloor characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alevizos, Evangelos; Snellen, Mirjam; Simons, Dick; Siemes, Kerstin; Greinert, Jens

2018-06-01

This study applies three classification methods exploiting the angular dependence of acoustic seafloor backscatter along with high resolution sub-bottom profiling for seafloor sediment characterization in the Eckernförde Bay, Baltic Sea Germany. This area is well suited for acoustic backscatter studies due to its shallowness, its smooth bathymetry and the presence of a wide range of sediment types. Backscatter data were acquired using a Seabeam1180 (180 kHz) multibeam echosounder and sub-bottom profiler data were recorded using a SES-2000 parametric sonar transmitting 6 and 12 kHz. The high density of seafloor soundings allowed extracting backscatter layers for five beam angles over a large part of the surveyed area. A Bayesian probability method was employed for sediment classification based on the backscatter variability at a single incidence angle, whereas Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) were applied to the multi-angle layers. The Bayesian approach was used for identifying the optimum number of acoustic classes because cluster validation is carried out prior to class assignment and class outputs are ordinal categorical values. The method is based on the principle that backscatter values from a single incidence angle express a normal distribution for a particular sediment type. The resulting Bayesian classes were well correlated to median grain sizes and the percentage of coarse material. The MLC method uses angular response information from five layers of training areas extracted from the Bayesian classification map. The subsequent PCA analysis is based on the transformation of these five layers into two principal components that comprise most of the data variability. These principal components were clustered in five classes after running an external cluster validation test. In general both methods MLC and PCA, separated the various sediment types effectively, showing good agreement (kappa >0.7) with the Bayesian approach which also correlates well with ground truth data (r2 > 0.7). In addition, sub-bottom data were used in conjunction with the Bayesian classification results to characterize acoustic classes with respect to their geological and stratigraphic interpretation. The joined interpretation of seafloor and sub-seafloor data sets proved to be an efficient approach for a better understanding of seafloor backscatter patchiness and to discriminate acoustically similar classes in different geological/bathymetric settings.

Examining the evidence for dynamical dark energy.

PubMed

Zhao, Gong-Bo; Crittenden, Robert G; Pogosian, Levon; Zhang, Xinmin

2012-10-26

We apply a new nonparametric Bayesian method for reconstructing the evolution history of the equation of state w of dark energy, based on applying a correlated prior for w(z), to a collection of cosmological data. We combine the latest supernova (SNLS 3 year or Union 2.1), cosmic microwave background, redshift space distortion, and the baryonic acoustic oscillation measurements (including BOSS, WiggleZ, and 6dF) and find that the cosmological constant appears consistent with current data, but that a dynamical dark energy model which evolves from w<-1 at z~0.25 to w>-1 at higher redshift is mildly favored. Estimates of the Bayesian evidence show little preference between the cosmological constant model and the dynamical model for a range of correlated prior choices. Looking towards future data, we find that the best fit models for current data could be well distinguished from the ΛCDM model by observations such as Planck and Euclid-like surveys.

A dust spectral energy distribution model with hierarchical Bayesian inference - I. Formalism and benchmarking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galliano, Frédéric

2018-05-01

This article presents a new dust spectral energy distribution (SED) model, named HerBIE, aimed at eliminating the noise-induced correlations and large scatter obtained when performing least-squares fits. The originality of this code is to apply the hierarchical Bayesian approach to full dust models, including realistic optical properties, stochastic heating, and the mixing of physical conditions in the observed regions. We test the performances of our model by applying it to synthetic observations. We explore the impact on the recovered parameters of several effects: signal-to-noise ratio, SED shape, sample size, the presence of intrinsic correlations, the wavelength coverage, and the use of different SED model components. We show that this method is very efficient: the recovered parameters are consistently distributed around their true values. We do not find any clear bias, even for the most degenerate parameters, or with extreme signal-to-noise ratios.

A neural network application to classification of health status of HIV/AIDS patients.

PubMed

Kwak, N K; Lee, C

1997-04-01

This paper presents an application of neural networks to classify and to predict the health status of HIV/AIDS patients. A neural network model in classifying both the well and not-well health status of HIV/AIDS patients is developed and evaluated in terms of validity and reliability of the test. Several different neural network topologies are applied to AIDS Cost and Utilization Survey (ACSUS) datasets in order to demonstrate the neural network's capability.

Attentional and Contextual Priors in Sound Perception.

PubMed

Wolmetz, Michael; Elhilali, Mounya

2016-01-01

Behavioral and neural studies of selective attention have consistently demonstrated that explicit attentional cues to particular perceptual features profoundly alter perception and performance. The statistics of the sensory environment can also provide cues about what perceptual features to expect, but the extent to which these more implicit contextual cues impact perception and performance, as well as their relationship to explicit attentional cues, is not well understood. In this study, the explicit cues, or attentional prior probabilities, and the implicit cues, or contextual prior probabilities, associated with different acoustic frequencies in a detection task were simultaneously manipulated. Both attentional and contextual priors had similarly large but independent impacts on sound detectability, with evidence that listeners tracked and used contextual priors for a variety of sound classes (pure tones, harmonic complexes, and vowels). Further analyses showed that listeners updated their contextual priors rapidly and optimally, given the changing acoustic frequency statistics inherent in the paradigm. A Bayesian Observer model accounted for both attentional and contextual adaptations found with listeners. These results bolster the interpretation of perception as Bayesian inference, and suggest that some effects attributed to selective attention may be a special case of contextual prior integration along a feature axis.

Dynamics of attentional selection under conflict: toward a rational Bayesian account.

PubMed

Yu, Angela J; Dayan, Peter; Cohen, Jonathan D

2009-06-01

The brain exhibits remarkable facility in exerting attentional control in most circumstances, but it also suffers apparent limitations in others. The authors' goal is to construct a rational account for why attentional control appears suboptimal under conditions of conflict and what this implies about the underlying computational principles. The formal framework used is based on Bayesian probability theory, which provides a convenient language for delineating the rationale and dynamics of attentional selection. The authors illustrate these issues with the Eriksen flanker task, a classical paradigm that explores the effects of competing sensory inputs on response tendencies. The authors show how 2 distinctly formulated models, based on compatibility bias and spatial uncertainty principles, can account for the behavioral data. They also suggest novel experiments that may differentiate these models. In addition, they elaborate a simplified model that approximates optimal computation and may map more directly onto the underlying neural machinery. This approximate model uses conflict monitoring, putatively mediated by the anterior cingulate cortex, as a proxy for compatibility representation. The authors also consider how this conflict information might be disseminated and used to control processing. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Attentional and Contextual Priors in Sound Perception

PubMed Central

Wolmetz, Michael; Elhilali, Mounya

2016-01-01

Behavioral and neural studies of selective attention have consistently demonstrated that explicit attentional cues to particular perceptual features profoundly alter perception and performance. The statistics of the sensory environment can also provide cues about what perceptual features to expect, but the extent to which these more implicit contextual cues impact perception and performance, as well as their relationship to explicit attentional cues, is not well understood. In this study, the explicit cues, or attentional prior probabilities, and the implicit cues, or contextual prior probabilities, associated with different acoustic frequencies in a detection task were simultaneously manipulated. Both attentional and contextual priors had similarly large but independent impacts on sound detectability, with evidence that listeners tracked and used contextual priors for a variety of sound classes (pure tones, harmonic complexes, and vowels). Further analyses showed that listeners updated their contextual priors rapidly and optimally, given the changing acoustic frequency statistics inherent in the paradigm. A Bayesian Observer model accounted for both attentional and contextual adaptations found with listeners. These results bolster the interpretation of perception as Bayesian inference, and suggest that some effects attributed to selective attention may be a special case of contextual prior integration along a feature axis. PMID:26882228

Empirical Investigation of Critical Transitions in Paleoclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loskutov, E. M.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Feigin, A.

2016-12-01

In this work we apply a new empirical method for the analysis of complex spatially distributed systems to the analysis of paleoclimate data. The method consists of two general parts: (i) revealing the optimal phase-space variables and (ii) construction the empirical prognostic model by observed time series. The method of phase space variables construction based on the data decomposition into nonlinear dynamical modes which was successfully applied to global SST field and allowed clearly separate time scales and reveal climate shift in the observed data interval [1]. The second part, the Bayesian approach to optimal evolution operator reconstruction by time series is based on representation of evolution operator in the form of nonlinear stochastic function represented by artificial neural networks [2,3]. In this work we are focused on the investigation of critical transitions - the abrupt changes in climate dynamics - in match longer time scale process. It is well known that there were number of critical transitions on different time scales in the past. In this work, we demonstrate the first results of applying our empirical methods to analysis of paleoclimate variability. In particular, we discuss the possibility of detecting, identifying and prediction such critical transitions by means of nonlinear empirical modeling using the paleoclimate record time series. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep155102. Ya. I. Molkov, D. N. Mukhin, E. M. Loskutov, A.M. Feigin, (2012) : Random dynamical models from time series. Phys. Rev. E, Vol. 85, n.3.3. Mukhin, D., Kondrashov, D., Loskutov, E., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., & Ghil, M. (2015). Predicting Critical Transitions in ENSO models. Part II: Spatially Dependent Models. Journal of Climate, 28(5), 1962-1976. http://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00240.1

Bayesian aggregation versus majority vote in the characterization of non-specific arm pain based on quantitative needle electromyography

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Methods for the calculation and application of quantitative electromyographic (EMG) statistics for the characterization of EMG data detected from forearm muscles of individuals with and without pain associated with repetitive strain injury are presented. Methods A classification procedure using a multi-stage application of Bayesian inference is presented that characterizes a set of motor unit potentials acquired using needle electromyography. The utility of this technique in characterizing EMG data obtained from both normal individuals and those presenting with symptoms of "non-specific arm pain" is explored and validated. The efficacy of the Bayesian technique is compared with simple voting methods. Results The aggregate Bayesian classifier presented is found to perform with accuracy equivalent to that of majority voting on the test data, with an overall accuracy greater than 0.85. Theoretical foundations of the technique are discussed, and are related to the observations found. Conclusions Aggregation of motor unit potential conditional probability distributions estimated using quantitative electromyographic analysis, may be successfully used to perform electrodiagnostic characterization of "non-specific arm pain." It is expected that these techniques will also be able to be applied to other types of electrodiagnostic data. PMID:20156353

The Approximate Bayesian Computation methods in the localization of the atmospheric contamination source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopka, P.; Wawrzynczak, A.; Borysiewicz, M.

2015-09-01

In many areas of application, a central problem is a solution to the inverse problem, especially estimation of the unknown model parameters to model the underlying dynamics of a physical system precisely. In this situation, the Bayesian inference is a powerful tool to combine observed data with prior knowledge to gain the probability distribution of searched parameters. We have applied the modern methodology named Sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (S-ABC) to the problem of tracing the atmospheric contaminant source. The ABC is technique commonly used in the Bayesian analysis of complex models and dynamic system. Sequential methods can significantly increase the efficiency of the ABC. In the presented algorithm, the input data are the on-line arriving concentrations of released substance registered by distributed sensor network from OVER-LAND ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION (OLAD) experiment. The algorithm output are the probability distributions of a contamination source parameters i.e. its particular location, release rate, speed and direction of the movement, start time and duration. The stochastic approach presented in this paper is completely general and can be used in other fields where the parameters of the model bet fitted to the observable data should be found.